Talk Elections

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So we might get another long-term CDU leader?

If we look at recent times, a short-term leader was always succeeded by a long-term leader and vice versa.

Rainer Barzel 1971-1973
Helmut Kohl 1973-1998
Wolfgang Schäuble 1998-2000
Angela Merkel 2000-2018
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer 2018-2020

I suspect that this is the final und best chance for Friedrich Merz. Centrists will have a hard time finding a formidable and broadly-appealing candidate:

Daniel Günther might be popular in his home state but the Eastern associations would crush him due to his views and comments on cooperation with Die Linke.
Ursula von der Leyen is gone.
Tobias Hans is another Governor whose profile arose in recent times but he is from Saarland and would be perceived as AKK 2.0 as he is her hand-chosen successor.
Armin Laschet might be the only option, plus he is Governor of the largest state, but he is not somebody who energizes the base.
I guess Jens Spahn will not run this time but rather when the Leadership is open next time.

Personally, I feel a little bit sorry for AKK. She is from my home state and I met her in person sometimes, and she is not somebody who I'd perceive as incompetent, although I disagree with her politically. The job she did as Governor was quite decent, not necessarily good but not bad either. She just did not get along with Berlin politics, as her political instincts which brought her to great successes in Saarland are not enough to survive on federal level. That's politics.
Plus although her handling of gaffes and elections was extremely bad in general (she really was not made for the leadership top job), her role as Secretary of Defence should be distinguished from that. Ursula von der Leyen was a horrible SoD (like most of her predecessors), so AKK inherited some tough work and did not manage it utterly bad. From what I heard from media, her approval among soldiers is much better than Ursula's as she is down-to-Earth and appeared to care more about the Bundeswehr than her job. But then again, those are some subjective reports.
Might be interesting to see whether she will still play a role in politics (maybe continue serving as SoD?) or retire. She does not have a Bundestag seat (and would run in my constituency if she still decided to run). Schäuble and Barzel did not retire immediately, as well as Erhard and Kiesinger, although the comparisons are hard to make.

Apparently, AKK's announcement came as a surprise and shock for the CDU's Presidium so she wasn't stabbed in the back by anyone but decided to call it quits after last week's events. If everybody in the party does whatever the hell he or she wants no matter what I'm asking them to do, I'd probably go to. AKK had not authority anymore.

As a Green and with regards to what Astatine said I'm also seeing some astonishing parallels to Simone Peter, who at one point served under AKK as environment minister in Saarland and eventually became one of the most lackluster party leaders the German Greens ever had on the federal level. For Saarlandians, the federal level often turns out to be "too big" a stage it seems.

As far as AKK succession is concerned, I'd say it will come down to either Laschet or Merz. Spahn has only a shot if Merz declines to run IMO. Maybe it will also depend on the precise procedure. Merz would have the advantage in a primary-like contest where all members can cast their vote, Laschet might win with the help of establishment backing on a party convention.

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

This is quite unlikely. Although she appears to have been the one who staged the disposal of AKK:
- Her now infamous claim of a new election in Thuringia (without any constitutional right to do so) was the first call for this, and immediately the CDU presidium took over this position
- She fired Mr Hirte, a confidant of Mr Mohring
- AKK famously unable to convince the only persons with a right to order new elections, the CDU Thuringia caucus
- The joint meeting of the coalition also ordered a new election and that the federal CDU had to take over this position, despite no right what ever to reign into intraparty affairs

To me, the most likely new CDU chairperson will be PM Armin Laschet of NRW. Mrs Merkel hat about 40 % of the party officials at her command, as the election of AKK has shown. With support of the JU and 100 % of the CDU NRW delegates, this would suffice.

Mr Merz has no natural constituency. There may be a puppet candidate (like Mr Spahn) to siphon away some potential support from him and command it to the Merkelista side. Plus his main assets like the CDU East Germany(to be clear: the non ancien régime parts, these are the core supporters of Mrs Merkel, please remember that Mr Mohring et al are stemming from integrated former indenpendent parties which were the true drivers of the Revolution of 1989 like Demokratischer Aufbruch, Neues Forum and Deutsche Soziale Union) are now burnt toast.

Yeah, so far everything seems to point to Laschet unless he stumbles and makes a serious mistake. There's also strong support for restoring a "the chairman must also be the chancellor-candidate" rule, so it's a likely scenario that he'll run for the Chanellery next year as well. Ideologically, Laschet is probably a successor Angela Merkel could very well live with, although it often seemed like she would have preferred another woman (von der Leyen, Kramp-Karrenbauer etc.) herself. Laschet means no (extreme) conservative turn to right, her legacy would essentially be preserved.

Then again, there's alot of uncertainty, chaos, panic, and confusion going on in the CDU right now with regards to the party's future in general. Since the weekend, more liberal wings of the CDU have openly declared a no-holds-barred war on the AfD-friendly, right-wing "Werteunion" (Values Union). Schleswig-Holstein's minister-president Daniel Günther and CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak have clashed over the party's ban on cooperating with the Left Party. There are rumours and speculations that the next Bundestag election won't be in September 2021, but possibly much sooner. It certainly took a while, but it almost seems like the CDU has now finally entered the same phase of desintegration which the SPD had already experienced over the last couple of years.

Too bad. I have a lot of respect for Merkel. What she has accomplished & the crises she has sorted out over the last 15 years are nothing short of amazing. It's truly unfortunate that many people in Germany don't know how well they're doing, & thus choose to spew hatred against the government because "everything could be better," because I simply don't see any German politician able to fill her shoes.

What? Which infamous claim? Merkel's statement happened long after Söder and many others had already come out in favor of new elections. And she definitely has a constitutional right to call for them (just like any other German citizen); she only lacks the right to order them and that she didn't. I also find it difficult to establish a causal connection between the sacking of Hirte and AKK's decision. Hirte is a nobody who has created some bad headlines in the past. This was just the most convenient opportunity to (a) get rid of him and (b) convey the impression that the federal CDU is really serious about the Thuringia issue. Two birds - one stone.
________

The lead candidate of the Baden-Württemberg CDU (next state election: 2021) has just endorsed Jens Spahn and called for a "changing of the guard" within the party. I'm not sure if another run will actually help him, as he has already raised his national profile in 2018. And that wa most likely his main goal.

It really is a pity that Merkel doesn't want to run again. Make no mistake: She is still by far the best candidate the CDU has to offer and the only one who would have the chancellorship on lock. Great chance for Habeck or Baerbock though.

Why is Günther against the rule?

Sorry but calling for a new election from South Africa (that's where she was at the moment) before AKK as nominal CDU chair is unheard of. Every political commentator from Sueddeutsche (pro-SPD) to FAZ(conservative pro-CDU)  and Handelsblatt (Merkel's mouthpiece) sees it the same way:
By taking a leading role again, she dismantled AKK. Leading decisively is the most important qualitiy a leading politician has to prove. If not, bye bye, Felicia (or in this case, AKK).

It is quite naive to expect Mrs Merkel issue a statement like this by chance.

And have you ever heard of the autonomy of the local CDU branches? OK, this subsidiarity principle is quite hollow, and at least played to the outside. 
This breach of principle has damaged the CDU further. I do not like the AfD at all. Now they can repeat the mantra of the de-facto non-existent "left dictatorship" in Germany.

And to quote FDR: "In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way." Mr Hirte was sacked by Mrs Merkel without any warning. Usually, this is a topic for the CDU presidium, where the political position are dealt with(political proportion like x women, y men, and z number of Eastern Germans etc.).

I hope Armin Laschet wins this one. He's a pragmatic leader and seems to be a nice person. I think he's in a very favorable position since he controls the largest state party.

Obviously the entire crisis of the CDU goes back to the federal election of 2017. Angela Merkel should have declined running a fourth term and clearing the way for a fresh new start. At this point, she's basically just sitting her time out. That's also reflected in the atrocious approval rating for this cabinet. Like Kohl and Adenauer, CDU chancellors lose grip and awareness when it's time to leave.

ayy lmao

Because in Thuringia (and possibly other states in the future) you can't form a government without either the Left or the AfD. Obviously, Günther prefers the Left out of these options to break the gridlock. He's probably the most liberal of the CDU moderates these days. (It's for that reason that he probably hasn't much of a shot at the CDU chairmanship/Chancellor-candidacy too. In all likelihood, Merkel's successsor won't come from the left of Merkel.)

   Any developments, and any sense of when the new leader will be elected? I would think sooner rather than the summer that AKK proposed just to get the ball rolling on this ASAP.

^
-Merz will run (https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/union-vorsitz-kanzlerkandidatur-105.html), according to corroborating reports from media sources. No surprise there.
-Spahn is a maybe, says he is ready to "take responsibility, as always". Vague, as always.
-Laschet, total silence until now. He would likely win were he to run, as others have pointed out. But MP of NRW is not exactly a bad job to have, while leading the CDU *right now* is ... well, not easy.
-Söder is a no. "My location and anchor are in Bavaria, and I shall keep my word with the Bavarian voters." He is popular (https://www.focus.de/politik/ranking/focus-ranking-soeder-schon-auf-platz-2-das-sind-die-beliebtesten-politiker-deutschlands_id_11533380.html)in Bravaria and nationally, and has enough Power for himself as is right now. (and anyway, he could only become Chancellor-Candidate, not Chair of the CDU (as he is Bravarian). The media likes treating them as the same, and most likely they will, but they are distinct roles). His support will prove very important though, and he will be the first person AKK consults on possible successors this weekend at the MSC.

The election likely to take place under the current system (convention delegates), not a direct vote among members. After the gruelling contest in the SPD, there is not much appetite in the CDU (even among Merz) to go down that path.  
The timeline is unclear - according to dpa (https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/kramp-karrenbauer-cdu-zeitplan-101~_origin-9abcc843-7d8e-4e1a-96e1-a44dacf3f86d.html), there will likely be sometime in May or June a special party convention to decide the CDU chair and the Chancellor-candidate. The regular December convention will remain in place.

Arguably the recent events vindicate those, like Merkel, who were from the start for the principle of indivisibility of the Party Chair and position of Chancellor. It seems unlikely however that once the new leader is elected that Merkel will be replaced by them before the end of her term. The SPD has threatened to end (https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2020-02/grosse-koalition-spd-cdu-angela-merkel-bundeskanzlerin-generalsekretaer-lars-klingbeil) the coalition in such case anyway.  

A opinion poll from RTL/ntv (I usually take these with a grain of salt, especially this early in the race):
Merz     (27%; Among CDU voters: 35%)
Laschet (18%; 19%)
Söder    (11%; 16%)
Spahn   (8%;  7%)
None     (36%; 23%)

More interesting results here: https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Merz-hat-beste-Aussichten-als-Kandidat-article21567356.html use google translate gn

As a first step, AKK is essentially planning to conduct separate "job interviews" with Laschet, Merz, and Spahn to determine their respective intentions. I guess the precise number of candidates running will determine how to proceed.

One thing that could perhaps stop Merz (or not make him a good CDU chairman if it comes to that) is his reputation of being too egoistical and not a very good team player. For instance, when he  failed to win the party chairmanship in 2018 the CDU basically begged him to take up another position, for instance one of the five deputy chairmen or at least a seat on the CDU's executive board. At that point it became clear that he will only return to politics if he gets a definite shot at the top job. He wants to be Chancellor and CDU chairmanship is a guarenteed stepping stone towards that goal. He's not interested in anything below that.

Laschet on the other hand appears to have a fundamentlly different approach. Unlike Merz and Spahn, he refused to make any public comments on his political future during the last couple of years. He's hedging his bets, perhaps trying to organize support for a bid behind the scenes. Only today he happened to appear in the headlines by making a pledge that he will "never" cooperate with the AfD in any form.

I think Laschet can stop Merz since he's in control of NRW state party, which has by far the most delegates. Merz is also from NRW and would need strong support from eastern state parties to stand a chance if there is a contested convention like in 2018.

I know where she was. And no, Merkel was in this case just reacting to previous statements made by Söder, Lindner, and friends.


Sorry, but the claim that "every political commentator sees it the same way" is as wrong as the one that the Süddeutsche is pro-SPD. It is nothing of that sort. If anything, its editorial stance has been vaguely supportive of my own party (Greens) in recent times. But even this doesn't necessarily apply to individual opinion writers of course.


She's the Chancellor. She was supposed to intervene at some point, especially since the whole Thuringia affair had an impact of Germany's image abroad. In any case, Merkel had no reason to dismantle or weaken AKK in any way.  


Not by chance but because she didn't have any choice but to say something.


Come on, the AfD is repeating this nonsense since 2015 now. The Chancellor does something they don't like and these people shout "Dictatorship!!!" - it really doesn't matter at this point anymore. These people are mentally incapable of understanding the basic tenets of Germany's constitutional order, which allows Merkel to demand whatever she wants. As long as she doesn't formally intervene into state affairs, everything is fine.


Of course, things do happen by accident. More than 50% of politics is based on a seemingly endless series of accidents, miscalculations, suddenly emerging opportunity structures etc.

Yet in this case, as I said before, there were already calls to sack Hirte in the past. And the Chancellor has definitely the right to decide who should serve in her government and who shouldn't. This is her decision to make and her decision alone.

AKK is planning to propose a successor for herself on February 24.

Michael Kretschmer was misquoted. She will just announce how the new leader will be elected, not whom she proposes.

Mertz is the best hope for the cdu he can win back some add voters

No, not necessarily. He might win back a few FDP voters (possibly pushing the party below the threshold) and mobilize a specific anti-Merkel segment within the CDU. Sure. But his selection would also create significant backlash and the center-left would have an easy time to depict Merz as a neoliberal Heuschrecke who must be stopped at all cost.

There is a reason why many SPD politicians secretly root for Merz and call him a "gift of God". Laschet would be considered far more dangerous.

^^ Yes, Friedrich Merz being a neoliberal globalist with strong ties to BlackRock, Inc. probably means that his potential appeal to populist AfD voters may be limited.

Merz is more of an old school pro-business, pro-small government, pro-tax cuts, pro-free trade conservative, sort of a cross between being Germany's belated answer to Reagan/Thatcher and a Macron on steroids. He's also not particularly known for being an "anti-immigration" politician although he may certainly be willing to insitute more restrictive refugee policies than Merkel in an effort solidify the support he receives from the CDU's conservatives.

Merz is the Bernie Sanders of the CDU.

Ugh really... You name my three most disliked politicians of the last 30 years, and a mix of that is going to be Merz. Really, total opposite of what i am.

Both Laschet and Spahn have proposed a "team solution"... whatever that means, since this doesn't seem to refer to three co-equal party chairs. So in the end there will still be one leader. In any case, there seems to be growing support within the CDU to find some form of consensus agreement instead of an open contest.

If recent statements by CSU chairman Markus Söder and CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus are any indication, Merz' chances are in a bit of a decline. Yesterday, Söder strongly implied in a TV appearance that he considers Merz to be out of touch due to his 15-year absence from active politics and also a loose cannon who speaks before he thinks (case in point: Merz had to apologize to the AfD's voters last week after he called that party "Gesindel"... this term seem to have many possible translations into English which range from "rifraff" to "vermin"). A couple of days earlier, Brinkhaus urged Merz to show greater team spirit and that "to assume responsibility" for the CDU could also mean that one takes over only the second- or third-most important position.

This "team solution" thing is kind of weird. I don't know why all of a sudden politicians feel this is such a great idea. What's next? Two heads of government serving as "co-chancellor"?

I think Söder himself would actually be a stronger candidate than people think. He might be able to win back some conservative voters due to CSU's more hardline immigration stance, while he started to open the door to Greens. His administration in Bavaria has pursued a lot of environmental policies since he took office, what generally raised my opinion of him. He makes a more mature impression now than at the time he served as Bavarian finance minister. Söder also has some "youth factor", but has practical governing experience (even though state level is vastly different from Berlin).

The point with Söder (of whose development I'm also positively surprised) is that he has plenty of time and no pressure. There's hardly an incentive for him to leave Bavaria and risk the end of his political career at Age 53. His current position is safe enough and he can afford to wait for more stable times.

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

He is responsible for the worst showing of CDU in the history of NRW, so if elected, we might see a repeat of that on federal level.

First and foremost, Röttgen is another "I've got a score to settle with Merkel" candidacy similar to Merz' candidacy. In 2012, he was fired (and that literally means fired because he had refused to resign) by Merkel as environment minister and scuttblebutt is that he never got over it.

Would not be too surprised if we ended up with incoming candidacies of Roland Koch, Christian Wulff, Günther Oettinger and Jürgen Rüttgers. ;)

Let's not forget good ol' Wolfgang Bosbach!

Lmao, Röttgen won't go anywhere. I will never forget how Merkel fired the guy in public literally the day after his disastrous defeat in the 2012 state election. She went before the cameras and said plain and simple (not an exact quote): "Ich habe den Herrn Bundespräsidenten gebeten den Bundesminister für Umwelt und Reaktorsicherheit gemäß Artikel 64 des Grundgesetzes mit sofortiger Wirkung von seinen Aufgaben zu entbinden" ("I have urged the federal president to relieve the federal minister of environment and nuclear safety from his duties immediately in accordance with article 64 of the basic law").

The english-language media, has a tendency to bring him on to comment on Issues like Brexit, China, Turkey, Russia, Trump, whatever with a nauseating frequency, because he is someone who will literally go on *any* program, being thirsty for attention since his humiliation.

Which is problematic because they present him as "a HiGh RaNkInG iNfLuEnTiAl FiGuRe In cHaNCeLlOr MeRkElS pArTy" (or along those lines), which he like, is absolutely not, and his attention-seeking comments often in no way reflect the stance of the German Government whatsoever, which misleads non-German readers/viewers. Anyone who actually takes CNN at face value is a lost cause anyway, so whatever. But its disappointing for the Guardian et. al. to do it too.

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

-What would have happened if Merkel had never been chancellor? (Say, red-red-green is formed in 2005 and Merkel ousted not too long after for blowing the election). I imagine CDU still wins 2009, but what beyond that? Does AfD still rise?

There was a certain amount of weariness with Merkel developing before she made her announcement of a delayed handover - indeed, that's a significant reason why it *was* made. This reminds me a bit of the fanatical Blairites who insist "if only Tony had stayed on as PM, he would still be there now".

Erm......

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.



Who knows... ??? We could have ended up with Chancellor Roland Koch in 2009.

The AfD was - in essence - originally formed as a responce to the financial crisis in Greece so that wouldn't really change although the party might have developed into a different direction.

Then again, the AfD was all but dead after Lucke and others left the party in 2015. They were polling at 3% and they'd be sharing the fate of the Pirate Party if not for the refugee crisis. And I don't see anyone but Merkel letting in one million refugees within a few months, certainly not Koch or Wulff, probably not even a SPD-Chancellor.

Merkel doesn't have to care what a few CDU backbenchers think of her. She still one of the most popular politicians in Germany and if she were to run again in 2021 (and even in 2025), no other CDU candidate could realistically stop her.

However, to answer the question, she simply doesn't want to run again. Perhaps because she is exhausted by politics, perhaps because she's already feeling the signs of getting old, perhaps because she wants to get a position elsewhere (UN/EU/NATO...).

She never really explained it in detail, but only announced the following back in 2018:

"This will be my last term as Chancellor of Germany (...) I once said that I wasn't born as Chancellor and that is something, I have never forgotten. I strongly feel that the time has come to open a new chapter."

She resigned as party leader after suffering double digit losses in two consecutive state elections with intra-party discontent about her at an all-time-high. She knew that announcing this would be her last term would prevent any coup against her and she's smart to enough to remember Helmut Kohl getting voted out of office after four terms. The only reason she's not facing pressure to quit (and the unpopularity that comes along with this pressure) is because she has already announced that she will retire.

Double digit losses in consecutive state elections? Who cares, this has happened many times during her chancellorship. It also happened during the chancellorships of Schröder and Kohl by the way. "Intra-party discontent" at an all-time high? Not really. Do you remember the situation in 2011/2012 when the CDU lost Baden-Württemberg to Kretschmann/Schmid and failed to take back North Rhine-Westphalia from Kraft/Löhrmann? Not to mention the intra-party critics who attacked her over the Grand coalition's handling of the Euro crisis. Or the backlash after Fukushima and the Energiewende etc.

I also don't think that comparing her to Kohl works. Kohl was extremely unpopular during his last years in office (he trailed Schröder by several points and appeared as frustrated and helpless throughout the 1998 campaign), whereas Merkel is still extraordinarily popular and one of the main reasons why the CDU polls above 25%. 

What are the expectations for the contest as it shakes out?

Laschet, Merz, Spahn, and Röttgen either already had or will have soon meetings with AKK. Afterwards, she's planning to propose a specific procesure on how to elect her successor. Röttgen's surprise candidcacy has made some form of open contest as opposed to the consensus team solution much more likely. Laschet and Merz are still seen as the frontrunners, although it also depends on the precise procedure (primary election vs. party convention only).

what is the afd floor now days 6 or 7?

CDU is apparently planning to hold a party convention in late April or early May to elect a new chairman.

Update: The next CDU chairman will be elected at a party convention on April 25.

Breaking: Merz announcement is pending for tomorrow.

Plot twist:

Armin Laschet is running for the CDU charmainship. Jens Spahn endorses Laschet and runs for deputy. A move that probably solidifies Laschet's frontrunner status.

Norbert Röttgen counters the Laschet/Merz joint ticket by announcing that he will form a team with "a woman".

That's is a pretty nonsensical statement to make because:

- He doesn't say which woman, any woman will apparently do.

- The CDU has five deputy chairs, two of which are at the moment women and irrespective of who Röttgen designates as his "woman deputy" this probably wouldn't change anyway.

- With that in mind it would have made more much more sense for Röttgen to say that at least three of the five deputy chairs should be held by women in order to reach complete gender parity among the six chair/deputy chair positions. But the way he framed it now there will be Röttgen's personal woman deputy and the other female deputy chairs would be "normal" deputy chairs or something.


Schleswig-Holstein's liberal CDU minister-president Daniel Günther was quick to endorse the Laschet/Spahn ticket and also urged Friedrich Merz to integrate himself into that team, implying that Merz should drop his chairmanship candidacy.

My prediction on the outcome of the leadership contest:

We're essentially going to see a rerun of 2018 with Laschet as the new AKK, Merz as Merz, and Röttgen in the role of Spahn (although Röttgen is one of the moderates and not from the conservative wing). In 2018, AKK won 45% on the first ballot, Merz 39%, and Spahn 16%. The second ballot ended with 52% for AKK and 48% for Merz.

Since this morning, Laschet is running as the candidate of a liberal-conservative "unity" ticket. The Spahn endorsement is designed to show that both men are willing and able to cooperate "for the good of the party", while Merz and Röttgen can easily be painted as being on an ego trip now (earlier today I read a report that Merz was offered a cabinet position yesterday in an effort to integrate him in a "team solution" along with Spahn, but that he turned them down.)

Laschet/Spahn are also representing the preferred solution of the party establishment and the CDU is not the really the kind of political party where you're rebelling against the establishment, particularly your own establishment. Leading figures like CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus and CSU chairman Markus Söder had already indicated that they're not really a big fan of Merz due to his perceived egocentrism.

Granted, the CDU is in a very unusual and critical situation right now, but I don't believe that this is enough to push them over the brink and go haywire. On the contrary, perhaps many will think that it is time to stick together more than ever, and Laschet/Spahn is the "sticking together" solution.

I think Laschet has the edge in this race because he de facto controls the NRW delegation and has the broadest support among high ranking CDU officials, especially in the West (like Daniel Günther). If this was a referendum among CDU members, Merz would probably win, though.

Personally I prefer Laschet because he's a moderate pragmatist, but Merz might be better for the political landscape since it draw a clearer distinction between SPD/Greens and the Union.

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Nothing happening here anymore at the moment, mostly for "other reasons".

Jens Spahn is the federal minister of health, Armin Laschet is the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia. Yesterday, Spahn urged the population to abstain from "unnecessary travels" to North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody really cares what Friedrich Merz does at the moment, because he doesn't hold a political office.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody has so far brought up the possibility of cancelling the CDU convention in late April. Maybe because these things are generally decided pretty short-notice, one or at best two weeks in advance. I guess the possibility does exist when Spahn urges people not to travel to NRW anymore and a lot of CDU politicians from NRW would travel to Berlin for the party convention....

If delegates can't get to Berlin, are spooked into not attending, &/or are being advised to avoid going entirely, then is remote voting allowed for delegates?

This has never been done before. Does the party statutes allow it? At least they don't explicitly forbid it, I guess. However, they'd need to come up with and then organize a procedure for that. Something that may be hard to do if it's decided one or two weeks beforehand. Postponement is more likely IMO.

Today, at least four German states have banned all public events events with more than 1,000 attendees, and more states will probably follow suit.

Armin Laschet has said that there ought to be no special dispensation for the CDU party convention on April 25, and a decision on cancellation/postponement will be made sometime next month.

AKK has said the CDU is going to make a decision on whether to cancel the convention at the end of this month.

Breaking:

It's official and much earlier than originally anticipated... the CDU is postponing its party convention, originally scheduled for April 25, to elect a new chairperson. A new date has yet to be determined.

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.

That's sad news. According to recent reports, he's experiencing mild symptoms so far and is in self-quarantine. I wish him a speed and full recovery.

Cem Özedmir, one of the most prominent Greens, is also infected. He announced this today.

Kramp-Karrenbauer has said that the party convention to elect her successor won't possibly happen before December.

Politico is speculating (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/29/germany-angela-merkel-chancellor-225029) that Merkel herself could throw her hat in the ring given how her standing among Germans has hit new highs amid the pandemic. They stress that she's still admittedly unlikely to do so, but even then, the only rationale provided is merely that "she rarely reverses course." At this rate, she's gonna end up breaking Bismarck's record :P

In other news, I called this in this very thread's 3rd reply lol:

Unlikely, and if anything she'd run again for another term as Chancellor without returning to the CDU chair position IMO which would still require a leadership contest.

Quite frankly, I don't really know myself where we stand with regards to he succession. Markus Söder as next Chancellor has become much more likely due to Corona. But he's CSU so that doesn't solve the CDU leadership contest either.

Because he doesn't hold any political office right now, Friedrich Merz has pretty much disappeared from public life and public consciousness in recent weeks. Armin Laschet is frequently criticized in the media (and more indirectly, by Angela Merkel) for being too reckless in his desire to "open up the country again" and this may stick, especially when infection rates begin to rise again.

Jens Spahn as the federal health minister is of course at the very center of the current crisis and he generally does a good job at that. However, he did decline to run for the chairmanship shortly before all hell broke lose. So maybe the question is whether he'd be willing to break his pact with Laschet and reconsider a run after all? But were probably months away from that if it happens at all.

Since nobody cares anymore about AKK making gaffes her approvals have again up again too. So, everyone seems to be content with Kramp-Karrenbauer remaining at the top of the party for the time being, although she's definitely being overshadowed by Merkel and Spahn right now. AKK - who's also defense minister - did ruffle some feathers recently for pushing to buy F/A-18E/Fs from the United States without notifiyng and/or getting approval from the SPD, but this was a minor incident, especially in the current corona crisis.

Merz links homosexuality to pedophelia:


https://www.dw.com/en/germany-cdu-leadership-hopeful-slammed-for-comments-on-homosexuality/a-55008417

Disgusting comments.

I haven’t seen the original German so I can’t be sure, but surely he was referring to issues of sexual preference more broadly, given that he prefaced his answer with ‘concerning the question of sexual orientation’?

I believe he was saying the exact opposite?

??

If the translation is correct, he basically said that all sexual orientations are fine as long as one is not a pedophile?

I’m pretty sure Spahn is in the Laschet camp, so I assume this is simply an attempt to discredit Merz with a bit of headline silliness.

If you want to interpret this in Merz' favor, he was basically trying to say that all sexual orientations are ok and then went on to clarify the obvious limits.

If you want to interpret this in Merz' disfavor, his answer sounded a bit too much like "Gays are ok, as long as they don't molest children".

We're getting on woke terrain here and making unnecessary clarifications can expose you as un-woke.

The fact remains that conflating homosexuality with paedophilia has long been one of the most widespread (not to mention offensive) homophobic memes out there, so people have to be careful.

That's not "woke", just being a decent person.

Yes, of course people should be careful what they say and try not to be a**!$#?s.

But the fact that several people who I would consider decent persons didn't recognize how unsensible Merz' remark could sound, makes me think that this isn't about being a decent person or not. It's about being aware of how yesterday's platitudes ("as long as it is within the scope of the law and does not concern children") put into the wrong context can evoke highly unfortunate associations and therefore be insensitive. Wokeness in the positive sense includes being aware about that, wokeness in the negative sense includes automatically assuming bad intentions when people fail to follow the code.

I understand what you say.
I guess I just think that jumping on that and calling it "disgusting" belongs more to what you called "wokeness in the negative sense".

CDU/FDP coalition when?

Never. The votes are just not there. While the Union has surged a few points in polls due to Covid, the FDP is doing pretty poorly for some months now. They have changed a number of people at the top, though Lindner is staying on. At least for now. The next coalition is Union and Greens, which has been obvious ever since this term started.

Germany had that from 2009-2013 and it was one of the most chaotic and unpopular government in recent German history and yes, it was more chaotic and unpopular than the Grand Coalition 2013-2017.

So who is Norbert Röttgen (ideology-wise), and what are his chances?

Being the expert in German politics that I am (*cough*), I watched an interview with him on the Heute show where he seemed to basically go on and on about "being prepared for the future" and D-I-G-I-T-A-L-I-S-A-T-I-O-N.

Judging by the same episode, his chances are rated as precisely nil and it's all futile as Söder is going to be the next chancellor anyway

Norbert Röttgen is a generic centrist/liberal conservative who once failed to get elected minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia and who is almost certainly going to endorse fellow generic centrist/liberal conservative (and incumbent minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia) Armin Laschet on the second ballot of the upcoming convention. As to why he's even running... nobody really knows.

There's still, sort of, the "Green-Red-Red is the Greens' only option to capture the Chancellorship for themselves scenario", although for that to happen the three parties would need to win a majority first. Which - given the polling numbers - doesn't seem likely to happen. So, yeah, it probably comes down to CDU-Greens.

New SPIEGEL poll has Merz and Röttgen far ahead for party leader among CDU/CSU voters, with Laschet far behind:

38% Merz
29% Röttgen
11% Laschet

But for Chancellor candidate, Söder is far ahead among CDU/CSU voters:

61% Söder
18% Merz
  8% Röttgen
  2% Laschet

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cdu-vorsitz-merz-und-roettgen-liegen-klar-vor-laschet-umfrage-a-5c8232a4-55f5-41a4-9876-200b2903505a

LOL. Good to keep it mind that the voters' preference doesn't matter in the slightest. But shocking to see Röttgen at 29% - Laschet is still the favorite at the moment. Laschet as CDU chairman, Söder as candidate for 2021... seems like a reasonable compromise.

BILD is reporting that Spahn is strongly considering throwing his name in for Kanzlerkandidat in March (?) if his polling numbers remain strong.


But then can someone clarify this for me: if Merz or Laschet wins next week, do they have to submit their name separately for Kanzlerkandidat? Or can they just be like, "Nah, I want to be the candidate, ignore this guy"? How does this process work?

The party leader and the Chancellor candidate are not necessarily the same person. Schröder wasn’t SPD party leader in 1998 nor 2005. Neither were Peer Steinbruck and Frank Walter-Steinmeier in their respective bids, or Olaf Scholz this year, for that matter. As for the Union, Edmund Stoiber was Chancellor candidate in 2002 (though he was CSU leader).

It is separate from the leadership. The party elites may choose whoever they feel, though the leader is always a strong contender for the position and obviously plays a key role in the decision.

Do you still think Söder is the most likely chancellor candidate?

Basically this. There is no public contest for the position of Kanzlerkandidat as this is something the party elites decide. Think about the Merkel/Stoiber constellation in 2001/2002. There was a breakfast meeting in Stoiber's house ('Wolfratshauser Frühstück') and they made a decision. That's how things work here.

When it comes to the CDU/CSU, it is also important to keep in mind that we're talking about two different parties. And I really mean different. The CSU has its own party platform, its own leader, its own party-associated foundation (the Hanns Seidel Stiftung), its own political culture and is, in general, more hierarchically structured than the CDU. There is the strong expectation that the leader of the CSU has to be either Minister-President of Bavaria or Chancellor of Germany. In the CDU, there is no such thing, and in the SPD, the leader(s) can be literally anybody. For instance, Saskia Esken does not have a prominent position in parliament and Norbert Walter-Borjans is a former(!) state finance minister. Both are political lightweights.

Good question. It's a bit unclear right now and much will depend on whether Söder really wants to leave his cushy position in Bavaria (where he can basically stay in power indefinitely). He did a great job in raising his national profile during the COVID-19 crisis and I would still consider him the likeliest candidate, but we first have to see who the new CDU leader will be. For example, I don't see Merz winning the leadership contest but giving Söder the Kanzlerkandidatur.

That's a big 'if', but it makes sense. Spahn is quite popular right now, has high name recognition, and good reasons to try to seize the moment. And he wouldn't be a bad candidate. Elected to parliament at Age 22 (2002), he's both young and experienced - and the fact that he's openly gay doesn't matter to anyone but the far right. His main problem is the intra-party perception that he's way too power-hungry and would be well advised to 'wait his turn'. Many ambitious CDU/CSU politicians are afraid that if Spahn gets the Chancellorship in 2021, he could govern for 20+ years (hypothetical scenario of course), destroying their own career prospects. The German political system is about consensus and party loyalty after all.

So you think Merz has a real chance of winning the leadership now? Back in October you seemed to think Laschet had it in the bag. I also got the impression Röttgen had improved his chances somewhat, he's been gaining in the polls and I thought that had made him a more serious contender.

Are there going to be a run-off if no one gets 50% like in 2018? If so won't the support of the two moderates coalesce behind whoever gets to the run-off against Merz?

For what it's worth the latest poll has Merz dropping among CDU supporters, which are supposedly more right wing than the delegates. If the two moderates lead Merz 50/39 among supporters they should have an even bigger lead among the delegates (maybe 2:1?).

Merz 39 (-10)
Laschet 25 (+10)
Röttgen 25 (+3)
None of them 12% (-3)

Merz is also losing support as Chancellor candidate among CDU supporters while Söder is gaining.

"Would be a good Chancellor candidate"

Söder 80 (+7)
Merz 40 (-5)
Röttgen 35 (+5)
Laschet 32 (-4)

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2473~magnifier_pos-8.html

The events in Washington D.C. are certainly not helping Merz's chances for CDU leader either.

Merz is seen as a Trump-like extremist/hardliner of some sort within the CDU and among CDU members, which might have been somewhat popular in the past years.

But considering the events, the CDU delegates might now opt for Laschet or Röttgen as a more de-escalating alternative ...

Who do you think is the favorite now?

Do you expect Röttgen and Laschet's supporters to back the other in the second round against Merz?  (I assume Merz is certain to make the run-off). Or do some Röttgen supporters prefer Merz to Laschet?

EDIT: I'd also be very interested in answers from other German posters.

I strongly doubt that there are any delegates who will change their vote from Merz to Laschet/Röttgen simply because of the capitol riots.

Why is Merz so heavily favored by the betting markets? Ignorance, too much emphasis on polls of the public or...?

Is it due to the digital vote? (no "peer pressure" to vote for an establishment candidate). I'd imagine CDU delegates were extremely "vanilla" and establishmentarian. Merz got close last time, but now they're way ahead so "why rock the boat" and risk losing centrist voters by going right. Doesnt really make sense to me.

This party researcher seems to think Laschet is still favored, simply due to being the most experienced. How is his track record wrt predictions?

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/interview-mit-volker-kronenberg-parteienforscher-empfiehlt-laschet-an-cdu-spitze-keine-losloesung-von-vorsitz-und-kandidatur/26781916.html?ticket=ST-2544320-A4KBduM3lHlTu262skuh-ap1

Few would for *just* that reason, perhaps - but it maybe creates a somewhat worse climate for him?

Depending on the betting market and its participants there can be a lot of wishful thinking involved. Merz is certainly not a Trumpist but rather some kind of Reaganite who is popular with people that are nostalgic of a more ideologically pure CDU like it was in the opposition years (1998-2005). It's quite likely that more ideologically oriented people are more engaged in the betting markets in the first place.
Merz is not anti-establishment in every sense of the word. It's just that many members and leading figures think that times have moved on. But he and the direction he represents remain popular with many in the CDU.
I don't know about the party researcher, but I will say why Merz might have a chance. I think that when AKK ran for the first time she had governed the Saarland for several years; but it's only the Saarland and apart from that she was mostly an unknown entity and seen as representing a continuation of Merkel's course. Laschet and Röttgen (and to mention all relevant persons Spahn and Söder) are all known entities.
Laschet is moderate, jovial and well-connected, but during the COVID-19 crisis he has become unpopular with the core of lockdown fanatics for seemingly being too laissez-faire.
Röttgen lost the 2012 election in NRW and was demoted from Minister of Environment by Merkel afterwards, which would play well in the story of a candidate like Merz but makes a more consense-oriented candidate like Röttgen look like a doormat.
In the end it is not said that the non-Merz vote will converge on a single candidate.

Thanks a lot for your answers.

Not sure what you mean by "in the end", are you talking about the first or the second round? Don't you expect most of the non-Merz vote to converge in the run-off? (assuming there is a run-off, but there was in 2018).

By "in the end" I mean the run-off, too. It is quite likely that a majority of the non-Merz vote will eventually converge, but a significant minority sitting out the run-off or even going to Merz could be decisive in a close election. Compared to AKK in 2018 I can see reasons why a more sizeable minority of the non-Merz vote would not go to Laschet, particularly his public image regarding the COVID-19 crisis.

I don't really think it has any impact at all. As pointed out by palandio, Merz is more comparable to a Reaganite, nobody (but maybe some young Twitter lefties or so) sees him as German Trump. He's way too intellectual for that too.

Yes, I still think that Laschet is favored. He has plenty of establishment support and Merz hasn't done anything over the last couple of weeks to improve his position. If anything, COVID-19 may have convinced even more delegates that now is not the time for experiments but for steady leadership.

And that's what Merz would be by the way. An experiment - NOT an anti-establishment option as others have already remarked. I think this is not unimportant as the difference between Merkel and Merz is one of style rather than substance. Ideologically, they are probably closer to each other than... let's say Charlie Baker and Rob Portman to give an U.S. example. Even the term Reaganite seems a little exaggerated (although I see the point). In the end, almost all of Merz's supposed conservatism is confined to three points: (1) free market positions; (2) Transatlanticism; (3) empty nostalgic gestures. I mean... the man has turned from being hardcore conservative to accepting same-sex marriage and talking favorably about environmentalism and a possible CDU-Greens coalition. He would face the same realities and problems as Merkel and he is pragmatic enough to know when he needs to adapt.

Agree that most of the non-Merz vote will eventually converge. Will it be enough for Laschet or will more Röttgen voters go for Merz than Spahn voters did last time? Hard to say but I don't see any good reason to think that Merz should feel confident about it.

Interesting that Söder is considered by many as the strongest possible Kanzlerkandidat. I was under the impression that CSU members were viewed as weak candidates on the national scale, coming across as too extreme and regionalist, tying in with the perception of Bavarian politics as being too separated from the rest of the country. Early on in his tenure as Minister-President, he was mostly making headlines for his push for “values”, e.g. the cross law, but I suppose his reputation has improved since then.

Well, only two CSU politicians were Kanzlerkandidaten in the past. And indeed, they were either considered too extreme (Franz Josef Strauß in 1980) or too regionalist (Edmund Stoiber in 2002). So the assumption is not entirely unfounded.

But you're absolutely right with your last sentence. Not too long ago, people thought of Söder as a conservative hardliner but this image changed drastically since he was elected Minister-President. He smartly positioned himself against Horst Seehofer (who appeared increasingly clumsy and gaffe-prone), started to praise environmentalism and adopt some ecological positions, softened his stance on immigration, and tried to be perceived as statesmanlike. Of course, this would not have been enough under most circumstances. But then came COVID-19. For Söder, the pandemic was (and still is) an absolute godsend and probably an once-in-a-lifetime chance to reshape his national image.

Also, the risk for the CDU/CSU is pretty limited as they will win the election either way. And Merz (too much baggage), Laschet (too vanilla), Spahn (too young and ambitious) or Röttgen (Who?) have their own issues... so the competition is not exactly fierce. I have no doubt hat the clear favorite would have been Ursula von der Leyen, had she not moved to Brussels.

CDU is trash.

FDP is superior.

Didn't he actually get some support as a result of his skeptical/negative stance on Muttis "Wir schaffen das" open-door policy?

Maybe you meant legal immigration, but most people usually don't care that much about legal immigrants coming to fill high-skill or empty positions (truck drivers, welders, etc.)?

Could you please add a poll to this topic? Preferably with a second question regarding if the new CDU chairman will also become the Union's chancellor candidate.

Something like that:


That would be very kind and considerate of you, hadn't you started this thread, I would love to have done it.

Note: It's a tradition, but no statutory or binding obligation that the Union's chancellor candidate has to be the CDU or CSU chair.

Aside from Governor Markus Söder, who has been staying tight-lipped about his political ambitions, Corona Minister Jens Spahn has put himself into play for the chancellorship.

The chair election is to take place on Saturday; the online convention itself will begin tomorrow; only the three candidates for the chair and the party executive committee are reported to be be present at the party convention hosted in Berlin.

The election is so exiting because there are only polls among voters and CDU members available; however not the party base will decide upon AKK's successor, but the 1,001 delegates. Thus, even the political pundits are absolutely not sure who will emerge victor (although they suppose Merz does have the edge over his competitors).

The Frauen-Union ("women's union"), a huge and very influential association within the CDU/CSU, which is said to have earned AKK her victory two years ago, have backed both Röttgen and Laschet, whereas Merz has been endorsed by the very conservative Junge Union ("young Union") and the neo-liberal Mittelstands-Union ("mid-tier union").

The latest poll among the voters (not the delegates) was conducted by infratest dimap on January 4/5, delivering the following results:

All voters:

()

CDU voters:

()


Here's also the poll about the favorability of the potential chancellor candidates of the Union parties (without Spahn, alas):

All voters:

()

CDU voters:

()

Bavarian Governor Söder has been hotly favored for the chancellorship for over a year now, but I'm not sure if he still is after his recent unbridled fit of restrictive, all-encompassing authoritarianism.

No, I mean asylum seekers. He has considerably moderated his previous hardline positions on this issue, even though he is certainly no second Angela Merkel. To give just one example, he asked the federal government to take in 'substantially more refugees' from the Moria camp back in September:

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/migration-soeder-will-substanziell-mehr-migranten-aus-moria-aufnehmen-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-200914-99-550796

Legal immigration is a different ball game, especially when the target group consists of highly-skilled migrants etc. - not even the AfD is officially opposed to admitting them.

Söder will be the first chancellor of the CSU right?

If he does ultimately succeed Merkel, yes.

Breaking: Votes are being counted, but Röttgen is out, per our local radio.

Merz: 385 votes
Laschet: 380 votes
Röttgen: 224 votes

Runoff is Lean/Likely Laschet I'd say.

Yeah, Laschet is favored. Röttgen belongs to the centrist wing, like Laschet. I doubt most of his delegates will switch to Merz.

I just hope that Laschet is the chancellor candidate himself then, because he's superior to Söder and Spahn.

BREAKING: LASCHET HAS WON!

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1350389749438099456

Laschet just beat Merz by about 52.5-47.5 in the runoff.

I somehow expected this (after the Washington Capitol riot, I think delegates went with the safer, non-controversial choice).

Lol, no, Merz has his own baggage and was never the clear favorite. He is an "old school conservative" in his style, no single delegate would associate Merz with Trump or anything that happened in DC. This take is almost olawakandesque.

Certainly not.

Merz was always seen as slightly Trumpesque and the Washington situation might have moved a few delegates to the Laschet side.

How many delegates is unclear, but certainly some.

So when is the Kanzlerkandidatwahl?

By whom?

If you take a look at some young left-wingers Twitter profiles, then likely yes. But this is the CDU, not Rose Twitter. When Politico - with their weird takes - brought exactly this comparison of Merz with Trump, Merz was defended by his own rivals. Ask any CDU members - if you know any - whether they agree that Merz could be seen as slightly Trumpesque. The answer will be no. Plus, CDU members simply don't care enough about the capitol riots to let that influence their vote. Pre-convention estimates had Merz ahead in the first round, with Laschet being behind and Röttgen as distant third. Laschet's and Röttgen's combined votes outnumbered Merz', who had a solid core but could hardly gain any new delegates beyond his circle of supporters.

Merz had his own problems in recent days, but not because of the capitol riots. His "Women for Merz"-campaign (since he struggled with female delegates and the Women Union endorsed Röttgen/Laschet) was considered a joke, his recent statement about a wealth tax as "envy tax" angered the social wing, a controversial statement about whether he could imagine a gay Chancellor gets occasionally cited, but no single CDU delegate considers this Trumpist in any ways or associates that with capitol riots.

I might just refer to some other replies that explain Merz' perception very well:

Spring/Summer.

Deputies now elected as well. Results are a serious blowback for Health Minister Jens Spahn. He received by far the fewest votes of them, just 589. Volker Bouffier got 806, Julia Klöckner 787, Silvia Breher 777 and Thomas Strobl 670 votes. Maybe a sign the CDU doesn't want him to be chancellor candidate. I certainly hope so. Laschet is much better.

So a victory (to admittedly simplify) for the CDU's "continuity Merkel" faction?

Spahn angered many by abusing the candidate question time to encourage the delegates to vote for Laschet. Combined with some negative press coverage regarding problems of his vaccination policy, this could explain the poor performance.

So, the whole inner circle of the party leadership seems complete now:

Leader:
Armin Laschet (replaces AKK)

General Secretary:
Paul Ziemiak

Deputy Leaders:
Jens Spahn (replaces Laschet)
Silvia Breher
Volker Bouffier
Thomas Strobl
Julia Klöckner

Chair board:
Bernd Althusmann
Monika Grütters
Reiner Haseloff (replaces the Master of Disaster of Thuringia, Mike Mohring)
Michael Kretschmer
Karl-Josef Laumann
Norbert Röttgen (replaces Spahn)
Annette Widmann-Mauz

Merz was called on to run fair the Chair board, but declined (just as in 2018). He already received much criticism for declining to work within the leadership circle in 2018, so I'd say that this will not really help him (although there's not much more of a career left for him). The opposite can be said for Röttgen.

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen? :P

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The problem with Merz is that he gives a fugg about his own party. The only thing he wanted to become was chancellor candidate and consequently chancellor. To do so he had to grasp the nettle called party chair.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

I just wanted to explain the sarcasm to everyone who isn't familiar with German politics. :P :P :P
A way more important and critical question is: Who will succeed Söder to his throne as Bavarian despot Governor?
Answers here, please! (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=424518)

I'm not sure exactly how to phrase this question, but: if Laschet is around where Merkel is (or even very slightly to the left, which is what a lot of the sources sources I've looked at have said), what is the point of CDU? Just a nearly non-ideological, sort-of party of power? Wouldn't this be highly frustrating for any voter who's even a bit self-consciously conservative?

I'm wondering if Spahn's backlash can also be construed as a hint from Armin's supporters - considering that the Corona Minister is his "adlatus" - that they actually prefer Söder as their chancellor candidate?

CDU has been in power for 16 years and is currently polling at 36%, leading the second-strongest party by at least 15 points. A generic centrist party certainly has a wide appeal, especially for moderate, more apolitical, or swing voters. This may suck for staunch conservatives, but at the end of the day it just isn't Merkel's or Lachet's electoral strategy. Merkel/Laschet are going for the SPD/Green vote, not the AfD vote. With Merz it would have been the opposite which is why I know leftists who in fact wouldn't have been too unhappy about Merz winning: It would have left the center wide open to be harvested by SPD and Greens again. But now we're probably stuck with the CDU for at least the next decade.

But, as his losses against both AKK and Laschet have also shown, Merz probably has a ceiling. He undoubtedly has a strong fanbase among CDU conservatives but it just isn't enough to win the party chairmanship. Merz' downsides are probably that:
a) he's seen as past his prime and too long out of circulation (he was once considered a potential Chancellor-candidate for the 2005 election and he also hasn't held an elected office for 12 years now) and
b) he's seen as a right-wing gaffe machine, too controversial, and having become out of touch with the country (he has the habit of making statements which sound like coming from a CDU conservative from around the year 2000 - which Merz in fact is, but society has moved on since then). Jens Spahn or Markus Söder for instance are regarded as examples for more "modern" conservatives.

As expected. The final result was perhaps a little closer than I had thought but well...

And a centrist Laschet CDU has a lot of appeal. Just like the centrist Merkel CDU did. In Germany, elections are typically won by appealing to the center and not by rallying die-hard party zealots. The CDU is in an excellent position right now.

Selfless Merz refused the offer for a seat in the party executive committee because he would have prevented a woman from occupying that post. Isn't he altruistic? ::)

Friedrich Merz has - as altruistic as he is - instead proposed himself to his newly-elected party chairman as a potential applicant for the Ministry of Economy, currently held by Merkel's "adlatus" Peter Altmaier; but his deadly foe Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, instantly declined his selfless devotion, stating she doesn't intend reshuffling her cabinet... ::)

Röttgen would actually be an excellent foreign minister. Better than Maas. I can't believe I'm saying this, given my party membership.

All of my fellow Saarländer Cabinet members are mediocre at best.

Imho: AKK > Maas > Altmaier imho (for minister performance only)

The CDU is a lot of things, but it's incorrect to think that it's non-ideological. There is a clear ideology; it's just not the same flavour of conservatism that we see in (to say the dreaded word) the Anglo-Saxon world.

You think so? Altmaier seems to do a pretty solid job... at least that's what I hear from within the Berlin bubble. Maas, well, he didn't do much wrong either. But he obviously has an image problem.

I'm not German, so I'm not going to talk about anything candidate or ideology specific. However, I do think it is important to mention the Union's perceived electoral situation, cause that also explains why someone who might disagree with some of their policies still happily votes CxU.

A - Tradition. Simply put, the Union has a long-lasting brand in Western Germany as the electoral vehicle of Conservatives. There are always a lot of people who have been voting for a large party for most of their life, and loyalty is something hard to break once built. Contrast this to the East where the voting population is comparatively newer to German politics. The fundamental differences have led to people expecting something different from their Conservative party than the Union is offering - as seen by other Eastern European parties of significant size that align with their nation's political Right.
B - If it ain't broken don't fix it. Merkel has led the Union for most of the 21st Century at this point, and I can't point to any major thing that her govt has bungled. The crises that emerged were all navigated in a calculated manner that may not have been the best approach, but ones that had little chance of blowback in Germany. In this regard, there will always be incumbency voters, no matter the Democracy. If the govt has been in power for long enough the reflexive desire to see change for the sake of change is replaced by one to maintain the present govt, since the unknown may be worse than the known.
C - Who else can? If you are walking into a polling place this year, and your identity aligns with the German Right, most of your consideration will go to the Union, AfD, and FDP. The issue now is whether you should vote for the party that may not peruse all of the policies you prefer, but will pursue some and be in govt, or the party that will just harass the former from the sidelines. Spoiler, most people are not ideologues and married a dozens of a parties proposals. The silent majority of those less-caring about politics if you will. The minority that have committed their party or its platform to their identity are the activists. They tend to block out the former though because devotees have the urge to post on social media or chatrooms, speak in the press, rally or protest, donate to auxiliary organizations, and maybe even join a youth wing or organizational group. A good chunk of those who care less about ideologies and the political game will check the box of the bigger party, since that is the one with the best opportunity to legislate on their behalf.

Many of these same rules preserve Parties of Power around the globe, no matter their specific proposals or leadership. See Likud, the Swedish Social Democrats, the LDP, and a few others.

Röttgen clearly hopes to become FM in a centrist CDU-GRÜNE coalition. But so does Cem Özdemir and maybe even Annalena Baerbock. Given that the junior coalition partner usually gets the office (since 1966 at least), I don't see much of a chance for him. But perhaps Economic Cooperation/Development, which would be a nice consolation prize.

Important not to confuse Merkel - who genuinely has no ideology other than to serve the State; though that is an ideology of a sort! - with the entire CDU-CSU, which is a genuine conservative party, particularly at a grassroots level. But none of the various German parties are particularly ideological compared to most countries, which is exactly how the electorate likes things - and quite understandably given that whole 'twentieth century' business.

Elections are won in the center (never forget that this center is politically and socially quite diverse), but sometimes they can be lost at the margins or by losing voters to abstention.

One important question is of course what winning means. Occupying the pivotal spot in the center of the spectrum with 34% can be more attractive than winning 38% but with a coherent adversarial bloc winning a majority.

Right, this is the point. Winning in the sense of staying in power is something completely different than getting as many votes as possible. That's why, to give a notable example, the emergence of the AfD has been a blessing in disguise for the CDU. It may have costed them a couple of voters but it also solidified a situation in which (a) the CDU remains the strongest party and (b) no coalition can be formed without it. Hence "excellent position".

This was one of the dumbest moves by Merz. However, he revealed his true colors and that not electing him leader was the correct decision. I hope he goes back to Black Rock, where "Mr. Upper Middle Class" belongs.

Armin Laschet has now officially been declared the winner of the chairmanship election.

In the vote-by-mail ballot, which has been additionally executed on legal grounds, he received 796 (83.35%) out of 980 votes from the same 1,001 delegates as the ones at the digital convention.
Note that only Laschet himself was granted ballot access.

A bit underwhelming, no ?

Party leaders usually get 90%+ in convention votes ...