Title: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 23, 2020, 03:35:15 AM So with Iowa just a a week and a half away I am gonna start a mini TL where I basically predict the direction of how I think the 2020 Primaries and General Election campaign will go .
Format: I: The Primaries - The Early States - Super Tuesday - Primaries between Super Tuesday and the North East Primaries(If Necessary) - Rest of Primaries(If Necessary) II: Conventions(Each Convention will be summarized in one post though) - VP Selection - Main Speakers - Summary of Speeches III: General Election campaign - Summarize Main Events of Campaign - Summarize All the Debates(Each Debate will be one post) - Battleground Map IV: Election Night - Each post will encompass one hour on election night - Battleground Senate and Gubernatorial Races will be mentioned - Individual House races won't be mentioned but the projected composition will be mentioned once in each post - Victory Speeches and Concession Speeches V: Post Election Night - The Cabinet of a 2nd Term Trump or 1st term cabinet of the new Democratic President-Elect(Will encompass 3-4 posts) - If Trump wins a pre-inauguration Press Conference, if Trump loses a Farewell speech Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: President Johnson on January 23, 2020, 01:50:03 PM TL idea endorsed. Would actually be interesting to see President Michael Bloomberg.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OBD on January 23, 2020, 02:19:34 PM TL idea endorsed. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 23, 2020, 02:30:38 PM Democratic Primary Results: The Early Four
Iowa Caucus: Former Vice President Joe Biden 24% 13 Delegates Senator Bernie Sanders 22% 12 Delegates Mayor Pete Buttigieg 16% 8 Delegates Senator Elizabeth Warren 15% 8 Delegates Senator Amy Klobuchar 10% Businessman Andrew Yang 9% Businessman Tom Steyer 2% All Others 2% Dropouts after Primary Results: Amy Klobuchar, Michael Bennett New Hampshire Primary: Senator Bernie Sanders 34% 11 Delegates Former Vice President Joe Biden 24% 7 Delegates Senator Elizabeth Warren 18% 6 Delegates Mayor Pete Buttigieg 13% Businessman Andrew Yang 7% Businessman Tom Steyer 3% All Others 3% Drop Outs: John Delaney, Deval Patrick Nevada Caucus: Former Vice President Joe Biden 35% 19 Delegates Senator Bernie Sanders 33% 17 Delegates Senator Elizabeth Warren 14% Mayor Pete Buttigieg 7% Businessman Andrew Yang 6% Businessman Tom Steyer 4% All Others 1% Drop Outs: Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg South Carolina Primary: Former Vice President Joe Biden 63% 39 Delegates Senator Bernie Sanders 25% 15 Delegates Businessman Tom Steyer 6% Businessman Andrew Yang 4% Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1% All Others 1% Drop Outs: None Total Delegate Count: Former Vice President Joe Biden 78 Delegates Senator Bernie Sanders 55 Delegates Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates Warren Endorses Senator Bernie Sanders before Super Tuesday while Buttigieg and Klobuchar endorse Former Vice President Joe Biden Cooper: In a move that could shape Super Tuesday , former Presidential candidate , Senator Elizabeth Warren endorsed Senator Sanders for the Presidency calling him the best candidate to take on Trump and push through a progressive agenda in the White House. Their fued which erupted right before the Iowa Caucuses seemed to have been resolved or else Senator Warren probably would not have endorsed Senator Sanders. On the other hand Mayor Buttigieg and Senator Klobuchar have also announced their endorsements and they announced that they both will be endorsing Vice President Biden. So at this point it looks like Super Tuesday will be a repeat of 2016 with Biden taking on the role of Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders taking on his role from 2016 but with one twist of the possibility that Mr.Bloomberg could cut into Vice President Biden's vote on Super Tuesday and Mr.Steyer and Mr.Yang could cut into Senator Sanders's vote. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 23, 2020, 03:11:13 PM TL idea endorsed. Thanks , I hope you guys like it and feel free to comment on these results given that it’s a prediction TL and tell me the parts your agree and disagree with this . Final note is this TL will not be covering the winner’s term so it will end when this TL gets to Jan 19 2021 Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: UWS on January 23, 2020, 03:39:23 PM Surprising that Gabbard didn't drop out even after weak showing in New Hampshire which I think is the state she's counting on.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OBD on January 23, 2020, 03:44:00 PM Looks good, but I'm fairly certain you need 15% to get delegates.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: Huey Long is a Republican on January 23, 2020, 04:53:31 PM Looks good, but I'm fairly certain you need 15% to get delegates. Yeah, the Democrats need a candidate to win 15% of the vote in any state during a state primary/caucus to get a single delegate. Only the republican system is different. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 23, 2020, 04:59:16 PM Looks good, but I'm fairly certain you need 15% to get delegates. Yeah, the Democrats need a candidate to win 15% of the vote in any state during a state primary/caucus to get a single delegate. Only the republican system is different. Ok thanks guys, I will edit that soon . I wonder though what would happen hypothetically if no candidate reaches the 15% threshold. Would all the delegates be unpledged then Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: Nightcore Nationalist on January 24, 2020, 08:02:42 AM Looking forward to it.
Did Bloomberg drop out in your TL? Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 24, 2020, 02:32:39 PM Looking forward to it. Did Bloomberg drop out in your TL? No Bloomberg is still in the race, its just that he wasnt on the ballot in the states before Super Tuesday because of the fact that he entered the race after the filing deadline had passed for those 4 states Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 26, 2020, 01:38:01 AM Former Vice President Joe Biden wins Texas and 7 other contests on Super Tuesday while Senator Bernie Sanders wins California and 6 other contests.
() Wolf Blitzer: Before we end our coverage lets recap the night, first by looking at the States Vice President Biden won from East to West Contests won by Vice President Joe Biden: Virginia: Biden 44% 50 Delegates, Sanders 28% 32 Delegates, Bloomberg 16% 17 Delegates, Yang 7% , Steyer 3%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% North Carolina: Biden 45% 61 Delegates, Sanders 36% 49 Delegates, Bloomberg 7%, Yang 6%, Steyer 4%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% Tennessee: Biden 62% 45 Delegates, Sanders 26% 19 Delegates, Yang 4%, Bloomberg 3%, Steyer 3%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% Alabama: Biden 66% 40 Delegates, Sanders 19% 12 Delegates, Bloomberg 6%, Yang 5%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% Arkansas: Biden 56% 20 Delegates, Sanders 30% 11 Delegates, Bloomberg 5% , Yang 4%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 2%, All Others 1% Oklahoma: Biden 45% 19 Delegates, Sanders 43% 18 Delegates, Yang 4%, Bloomberg 3%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 2%, All Others 1% Texas: Biden 49% 141 Delegates, Sanders 30% 87 Delegates, Bloomberg 11%, Yang 6%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% American Samoa: Biden 55% 4 Delegates, Sanders 20% 1 Delegate, Gabbard 16% 1 Delegate, Steyer 4%, Yang 2%, Bloomberg 2%, Others 1% Blitzer: Ok Now lets look at the states that Senator Sanders won again from East to West Contests won by Senator Sanders Maine: Sanders 61% 18 Delegates, Biden 21% 6 Delegates , Yang 9%, Bloomberg 4%, Seyer 3%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% Vermont: Sanders 81% 16 Delegates, Biden 10%, Yang 4%, Bloomberg 2%, Steyer 1%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% Massachusetts : Sanders 46% 46 Delegates, Biden 29% 29 Delegates, Bloomberg 16% 16 Delegates, Yang 5%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% Minnesota: Sanders 44% 43 Delegates, Biden 33% 32 Delegates, Yang 11%, Bloomberg 7%, Steyer 3%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% Colorado: Sanders 45% 38 Delegates, Biden 34% 29 Delegates, Yang 9%, Bloomberg 7%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 2%, All Others 1% Utah: Sanders 44% 15 Delegates, Biden 42% 14 Delegates, Yang 8%, Bloomberg 4%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1% California: Sanders 38% 213 Delegates, Biden 36% 202 Delegates, Bloomberg 10% Yang 8%, Steyer 5%, Gabbard 2%, All Others 1% Blitzer: Now lets look at the overall map with John King so far King: I just want people to remember last year everyone was talking about the fact that how different the democratic primary would be to 2016, with so many new candidates such as Harris, Booker, Warren , Beto but the fact is its shaping up to basically be 2016 but even closer with Biden taking the role of Hillary Clinton and Bernie reprising his role from 2016. () Total Delegate Count: Former Vice President Joe Biden 770 Delegates Senator Bernie Sanders 673 Delegates Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg 33 Delegates King: In my opinion the nomination will very much well be decided on Super Tuesday II when Illionis and Ohio vote and if Biden wins , its probably over especially with Bloomberg saying if he doesnt win a state by then he will drop out as well. Blitzer: Talking about drop outs , both Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard have dropped out of the race and Mr.Yang is saying if he doesnt get at least 25% in Michigan he will drop out as well then. King: I wonder if Mr.Yang drops out after Michigan if Mayor Bloomberg also will drop out then as well Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 28, 2020, 01:11:52 AM Yang and Bloomberg drop out after poor showing on mini Tuesday making the contest a two race between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
Blitzer: After poor performances on this mini Tuesday , both Andrew Yang and Michael Bloomberg have dropped out of the race making this now a two way race between Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders. Now lets look at the states won tonight by Former Vice President Biden from east to west Contests won by Former Vice President Biden: Mississippi: Biden 79% 36 Delegates, Bernie 12%, Bloomberg 4%, Yang 3%, Others 1% Missouri: Biden 46% 34 Delegates, Bernie 45% 34 Delegates, Yang 5%, Bloomberg 3%, Others 1% North Dakota: Biden 52% 8 Delegates, Bernie 40% 6 Delegates, Yang 6%, Bloomberg 1%, Others 1% Blitzer: Now lets look at the contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders Contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders Michigan: Bernie 43% 65 Delegates, Biden 40% 60 Delegates, Yang 9%, Bloomberg 7%, Others 1% Idaho: Bernie 60% 13 Delegates, Biden 32% 7 Delegates, Yang 4%, Bloomberg 3%, Others 1% Washington: Bernie 54% 57 Delegates, Biden 30% 32 Delegates, Bloomberg 9%, Yang 6%, Others 1% Democrats Abroad : Bernie: 61% 8 Delegates, Biden 33% 5 Delegates, Bloomberg 3%, Yang 2%, Others 1% Blitzer: Now lets go over to John King to look at the map King: And here it is () Total Delegate Count: Former Vice President Joe Biden 952 Delegates Senator Bernie Sanders 856 Delegates Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1 Delegate King: Due to the fact that Mr.Yang didnt have a strong performance in Michigan, a state that many in his campaign thought was tailor made for his type of message is why he dropped out . In response to that , Mayor Bloomberg who exit polls show time and time again takes votes overwhelmingly from Vice President Biden has dropped out because the fact is if he was in the race it would benefit the progressive wing who now will be completely united behind Senator Sanders. As for tonight , things didnt change much at all and next Tuesday will be a critical turning point because if Vice President Biden can win Ohio and Illinois, it will be very hard for Senator Sanders to win the nomination given how many few big states will be left and one of them being Vice President Biden's 2nd home state, Pennsylvania. If Senator Sanders wins both , he will probably be the favorite moving forward given the map but if they split it well then the nomination battle will be a complete tossup and wont be decided till June. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: Pericles on January 28, 2020, 02:56:17 PM Interesting TL. I think Biden is the nominee in this scenario, I'm not sure yet how he'd do against Trump. My personal opinion is basically the opposite of the conventional wisdom and thinks that he and Warren are the weakest of the top 4, of course being a weak candidate doesn't mean you can't win but it just makes it harder.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 28, 2020, 05:05:14 PM Interesting TL. I think Biden is the nominee in this scenario, I'm not sure yet how he'd do against Trump. My personal opinion is basically the opposite of the conventional wisdom and thinks that he and Warren are the weakest of the top 4, of course being a weak candidate doesn't mean you can't win but it just makes it harder. I think the polls are underestimating Biden and the way the Democratic primaries are , the South gives a huge advantage to one candidate which neither Hillary in 08 or Bernie in 16 were able to overcome. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 28, 2020, 06:12:55 PM Biden greatly expands delegate lead in primaries between Mini Tuesday and Acela Primaries
() Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden#2020_presidential_campaign John King: Going into tomorrow Acela's primaries , Senator Sanders will need a big night if he wants to have a good chance at winning the nomination and the reason is his performance since this became a 2 way race has not been that great and Vice President Biden has greatly expanded his lead. Here is a summary of those contests since this primary became a 2 person race, and lets first look at the contests Vice President Biden won, from East to West Contests won by Former Vice President Biden Puerto Rico: Biden 56% 29 Delegates, Bernie 43% 22 Delegates Florida: Biden 64% 140 Delegates, Bernie 35% 79 Delegates Georgia: Biden 69% 73 Delegates, Bernie 30% 32 Delegates Ohio: Biden 53% 73 Delegates, Bernie 46% 63 Delegates Illinois: Biden 51% 80 Delegates, Bernie 48% 75 Delegates Louisiana: Biden 74% 40 Delegates, Bernie 25% 14 Delegates Arizona: Biden 54% 37 Delegates, Bernie 45% 30 Delegates Northern Mariana: Biden 55% 4 Delegates, Sanders 44% 2 Delegates King: Now lets do the same for Senator Sanders Contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders: Wisconsin: Bernie 57% 48 Delegates, Biden 42% 36 Delegates Wyoming: Bernie 53% 8 Delegates, Biden 46% 6 Delegates Alaska: Bernie 70% 11 Delegates, Biden 29% 4 Delegates Hawaii: Bernie 74% 18 Delegates, Biden 25% 6 Delegates King: Now lets look at the overall map and delegate count () Total Delegate Count: Former Vice President Joe Biden 1553 Delegates Senator Bernie Sanders 1258 Delegates Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1 Delegate King: As you can see now Vice President Biden has a solid 295 Delegate lead currently and needs just 37% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination while Senator Sanders needs around 62%. Now one caveat to that is that the schedule after the Acela primary completely favors Senator Sanders so if he does well tommorow he still will have a chance. Now the question is how well, so lets find out. In the first scenario, lets say Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders split the amount of delegates so out of 663 lets give Vice President Biden 331 Delegates and Senator Sanders 332 , so not an exact split but basically so. That would give Vice President Biden 1884 Delegates and just put him just 106 Delegates short of the nomination. That would mean that Vice President Biden would just need just a little more than 20% of remaining delegates to win the Nomination which almost certainly would happen. So if both Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders split tomorrow, the primary will basically be over. Now lets look at scenario two and that lets give Senator Sanders 60% of the delegates tomorrow. That would give Senator Sanders a total of 1666 Delegates and he would need then 62%-63% of remaining delegates which would be really possible with the schedule ahead and you could say even probably to happen in that case. Now on the other hand if you just give him 55% which would give 1623 Delegates and then he would need over 70% of the remaining Delegates which would be very unlikely. So I would say if Vice President Biden wins tomorrow its over, if Senator Sanders has a narrow victory than its most likely over but not totally over and if Senator Sanders can get over that 60% mark then it's anybody's nomination. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: 538Electoral on January 30, 2020, 06:13:55 PM Interesting.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 30, 2020, 10:08:29 PM Despite Defeat in New York , Biden comes out night big winner thanks to large wins in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Deleware
() Blitzer: To review the night, lets first look at the states won by Vice President Biden, once again from East to West Contests won By Former Vice President Biden: Deleware: Biden 66% 14 Delegates , Bernie 33% 7 Delegates Maryland: Biden 59% 57 Delegates, Bernie 40% 39 Delegates Pennsyvnaia: Biden: 60% 113 Delegates , Bernie 39% 73 Delegates Blitzer: Now lets do the same thing for Senator Sanders Contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders: Rhode Island: Bernie 57% 15 Delegates, Biden 42% 11 Delegates Connecticut: Bernie 55% 33 Delegates , Biden 44% 27 Delegates New York: Bernie 53% 147 Delegates, Biden 46% 127 Delegates Blitzer: Now lets walk over to John King and look at the magic wall , and John despite a win in New York today was not a good day for Senator Sanders King: No it wasnt, not even close and lets look why , first lets look at the overall map and the overall delegate count () Total Delegate Count: Former Vice President Joe Biden 1901 Delegates Senator Bernie Sanders 1572 Delegates Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1 Delegate King: Just to remind everyone you need 1990 Delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot, so Vice President Biden is just 89 Delegates short of that magic number and there is a total of 522 Delegates left meaning he only needs a little more than 17% of the remaining Delegates to win the nomination, 17%. That would mean that Senator Bernie Sanders would have to perform basically even better than he did in his home state of Vermont from here on to win the nomination and that just wont happen. To say so is like saying that Donald Trump can win the election despite losing every battleground state, Texas and Georgia by winning California and New York which yes is Mathematically possible but just wont happen. Van Jones: I agree, I think Senator Sanders realistically has no shot at the nomination Blitzer: Well Senator Sanders in his speech today said he wont drop out until and unless Vice President Biden crosses the magic number of 1990 Delegates. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 02, 2020, 03:14:36 AM Breaking News: Joe Biden will be the Presumptive Democratic Nominee
() Wolf Blitzer: The polls are about to close in Kentucky and we have some breaking news to project to you Breaking News: Joe Biden wins Democratic Nomination Wolf Blitzer: CNN can now project that former Vice President Joe Biden will be the presumptive Democratic Nominee and face President Donald Trump in November's election. Now lets go over to John King who will explain why we can make this projection King: First lets go over the results of the race since the end of the Acela Primary Contests won by Former Vice President Biden: Indiana: Biden 54% 45 Delegates, Bernie 45% 37 Delegates Guam: Biden 60% 4 Delegates Bernie 39% 3 Delegates Contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders: West Virginia: Bernie 53% 15 Delegates , Biden 46% 13 Delegates Nebraska: Bernie 51% 15 Delegates , Biden 48% 14 Delegates Kansas: Bernie 59% 23 Delegates , Biden 40% 16 Delegates King: Now people may be saying wait didnt Bernie win more states since the well that's true, but remember Vice President Biden as only 89 Delegates short of the nomination after the Acela Primary and since then has won another 92 meaning he has surpassed the magic 1990 delegate number any candidate needs for the nomination. Lets look at the map and total delegate count to help understand this more () Total Delegate Count: Former Vice President Joe Biden 1993 Delegates Senator Bernie Sanders 1665 Delegates Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1 Delegate Former President Obama and DNC Chair Tom Perez announce endorsements of Former Vice President Joe Biden () Tweet from Former President Barack Obama: It is my great honor and privilege to endorse my friend Joe Biden for the Presidency of the United States and one of the best Vice Presidents this nation has ever seen. He will be a President who will represent all Americans and restore honor and dignity to the White House. Tweet from DNC Chair Tom Perez: It has been a great primary season for our party, debating all sorts of new ideas and I want to thank Vice President Biden, Senator Sanders and all the candidates in this race for running a great race but it is now time for us to unite to defeat one of the worst Presidents this nation has ever seen, Donald Trump . Senator Bernie Sanders Suspends Campaign after Former Vice President Joe Biden clinches nomination: () Wolf Blitzer: Senator Bernie Sanders in his concession speech today announced that he would be dropping out of the race as a result of today's primary and said he would be endorsing him as well. Bernie: With my opponent, Vice President Joe Biden officially getting enough pledged delegates to win the Democratic Nomination, we will have no choice but to drop out of the race as it is no longer possible for us to win the nomination. That does not mean the fight is over as we must fight for progressive candidates down the ballot in Congress and yes we must support Vice President Biden for the Presidency as the fact is we just cannot reelect Donald Trump who has given everything to the rich, denies climate change and panders to racists. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 03, 2020, 02:28:32 PM Joe Biden's VP Shortlist:
Kamala Harris: () Elizabeth Warren: () Tammy Baldwin: () Joe Sestak: () Doug Jones: () Amy Klobuchar: () Julian Castro: () Michael Bennet: () Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: President Johnson on February 03, 2020, 03:13:36 PM Biden/Harris would be the best ticket here
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 04, 2020, 02:27:03 PM Joe Biden names Amy Klobacher as running mate
() Cooper: We have some breaking news to report and that is that Vice President Biden as officially named Minnesota Senator and former Presidential Candidate Amy Klobuchar as his running mate. We are told yesterday he was deciding between Senator Klobuchar, Senator Harris and Senator Baldwin and it looks like he has chosen Senator Klobuchar King: Yes and while we dont know about the reasons why he didnt go with the other two , here are some major ones we can speculate about. For Senator Baldwin, it is that the state of Wisconsin does not allow the governor of the state to fill the vacancy and instead his filled by a special election which is held 3 months later, which means if we have a 50-50 Senate in November, it will become a 50-49 Republican-controlled senate for at least 3 months. Another fact is history because the fact is the party in power usually does not do well in off-year elections especially in battleground states, so it would be more likely than not the Republicans would take that seat so it would be better for Democrats if Senator Baldwin stayed in the seante than become Vice President. For Senator Harris, well the simple reasons is she doesn't directly help the ticket in battleground states anywhere near, as well as Senator Klobuchar does. Senator Klobuchar helped the ticket in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and helps keep Minnesota in the Democratic fold while Senator Harris does help in a state like Arizona she doesn't help much in flipping other states because President Trump can be reelected if he loses Arizona if he wins Wisconsin and either Pennsylvania or Michigan while on the other hand if he wins Arizona, he still would lose if he loses just one of those 3 Rust Belt states. Cooper: Ok now lets see Senator Klobuchar's introduction speech Biden: It is my honor to introduce to you my running mate and the next Vice President of the United States, Amy Klobuchar(Applause). Klobuchar: Thank You, Thank You. I am honored to be your running mate Mr.Vice President, and I am honored to be this great party's nominee for Vice President. This election campaign will be the most important election campaign of our lifetimes because the fact is President Trump has spent the last 4 years dividing our nation instead of uniting it, disgraced the office of the Presidency with his behavior, has isolated us from the rest of the world and even denies what the entire scientific community says about the impacts of Climate Change. On the other hand Vice President, Biden will restore honor and dignity to Oval Office, unite the country once again, will reaffirm our commitments with our allies, take action to deal with the issue of climate change, and work to make sure every American can afford Healthcare(Applause) instead of implement policies what take healthcare away from people. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OBD on February 05, 2020, 11:52:49 AM Good geographic balance for Biden, but definitely sacrificing minority support. Could this indicate a Rust Belt strategy?
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 05, 2020, 08:07:11 PM Good geographic balance for Biden, but definitely sacrificing minority support. Could this indicate a Rust Belt strategy? I disagree, polls through most of the primary showed that Biden was the strongest candidate among minority voters even more so than Kamala , Castro, Booker etc so I dont really find the argument that Biden would need to name them as his running mate to do well among minority voters that good. Now if Mayor Pete is the nominee, he will need to name someone like Kamala, Castro or Booker as his running mater given his weakness with minority voters. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: Amtrak Joe on February 05, 2020, 09:00:49 PM Very interesting, hope to see more.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 06, 2020, 11:01:20 PM Summary of 2020 DNC:
List of Major Speakers: () Immigration and Civil Rights: Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Doug Jones Economic Issues: Sherrod Brown, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker Anti-Corruption Issues: Steve Bullock, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke Environmental Issues: Bernie Sanders, Al Gore, Jay Inslee Healthcare: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, John Hickenlooper, Foreign Policy: John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Ben Cardin Need to elect Democrats: Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer Rising Stars: Gretchen Whitmer, Stacey Abrams, Abby Finkenauer Republicans: John Kasich, Jeff Flake, Arnold Schwarzenegger Former Presidents: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama(See Below) Excerpts of President Obama's Speech () Obama: Thank You, Thank You. For 8 years I had the honor of serving this great nation as our president and for all 8 years(Applause) I have the honor and privilege of working with one of the greatest Vice Presidents ever and my great friend Joe Biden and during those 8 years, I saw the passion he had to help improve our nation(Applause). Many times he would challenge my own beliefs because he believed I was wrong and many times I was, and I am thankful that I had someone like Joe to tell me that I was. One such issue was Gay Marriage, where Vice President Biden said it is wrong that gay and lesbian couples dont get the same rights as straight couples and he helped change my mind on that issue(Applause) and thanks to him by 2015 , our nation had finally legalized gay marriage in all 50 states. He has been a fighter for working people his whole life, and his work in the Senate proves that and his work as Vice President to help us get important bills passed such as the affordable care act that helped millions of Americans get health insurance and that is why we must elect him to be our next President(Applause). Joe believes that every American regardless of income should be able to afford healthcare, believes that the economy is strong when it works for everyone not just those at the top, believes that we should do something to help mitigate the effects of climate change and will bring honor and decency back in our government. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless the United States of America. Excerpts of Amy Klobuchar's speech accepting the Democratic Nomination: () Klobuchar: It is a great honor to be nominated as Vice President of this great party which once nominated another great Vice President who was also from Minnesota: Hubert Humphrey and I accept your nomination(Applause). Vice President Humphrey spent his career fighting for civil rights , for workers and his work culminated in the civil rights act and the Great Society passing and his legacy is exactly what this party has been about (Applause). Now we face many new challanges: from a student debt crises which gets worse year after year, millions of Americans still not being able to afford healthcare and of course the effects of Climate Change getting worse year after year and this current administration instead of dealing with these important issues has not only ignored them but has moved our nation backward on these issues (Boos) and we must start to move forward which is why we must elect Vice President Joe Biden as our 46th President this November(Applause). He will fight to pass a public option which will make sure all Americans can afford health insurance, reimplement the Paris Agreement on Day 1 so we can once again deal with the issue of Climate change, help deal with the student loan crises, rebuild our relations with nations all around the world and that is why we must elect him our next President. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause) Excerpts of Vice President Joe Biden's speech Accepting the Democratic Nomination: () Biden: Thank You , Thank You. It is a great honor to be nominated for President of this great party of FDR, Harry Truman, JFK and Barack Obama and I accept your nomination(Applause). Since our founding, our party has been the one who has helped fight for people who most need help and that is why I am proud to be a Democrat(Applause). The Republicans whenever they have taken full control of the government whether in the 1920s, the 2000s and the late part of last decade have used it not to fight for the working men and women but to pass their right wing economic agenda , alienate us from the rest of the world, and then use divisive social issues to stay in power and in the 1920s and 2000s it ended up with terrible results and we cannot afford to repeat those mistakes again which is why we must vote for change this November(Applause) and vote for the Democratic Party(Applause). If you elect our party to take back the White House and Senate this November, we will work to pass a public option to make sure All Americans have access to healthcare, take action against climate change, increase the minimum wage, actually deal with immigration instead of use it as a divisive political issue, and repair our relations with our allies(Applause). It is time to bring honor and decency back into our government because we should be a role model for our children rather than be an example of how not to behave, and I can tell you that if you elect us in November, I will do all I can in my power to truly make our nation decent again(Applause). On many of our issues we dont have time to wait, every year we ignore climate change is one more year things get even worse and more out of control , every year we ignore the issue of healthcare is more people getting sick, and every year we grow more apart from our allies puts us closer to war and we cannot afford that. 12 years ago when President Obama and I took over after 8 years of the Bush Administration, we were in the worst shape economically then we have been since the Depression, we had to deal with two out of control wars and we cannot risk putting our selves back into that situation by giving this President who is even worse than Bush and Cheney were another 4 years (Applause). Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America Polling map After the Convention: () Biden/Klobuchar 375 53% Trump/Pence 125 44% Color Code: Green=Tied Light= 1-2 point lead Medium = 3-6 point lead Medum/Dark = 6-11 Point Lead Dark = 11+ point lead King: Before people freak out , I want people to remember this is normal, there are huge bounces out of conventions and the Republicans will get one too and it will be back within 4-5 points after their convention. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 06, 2020, 11:04:23 PM I bolded that last part just to let people know that is not what I think the battleground map really will look like rather how it will look like after the DNC Convention Bump .
The RNC will get one too and the battleground maps which I will ost after that will be much more accurate than this one Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 08, 2020, 01:43:16 AM Summary of 2020 RNC:
List of Major Speakers: () Immigration: Ted Cruz, Chris Christe, ICE Agents Criminal Justice Reform: Rand Paul, Alice Johnson, Tim Scott Judicial Record: Mitch McConnell, Mike Lee, Lindsey Graham Foreign Policy: Marco Rubio, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley Trade: Rob Portman, Josh Hawley, Ron Johnson Governors: Ron DeSantis , Gregg Abbott, Mike DeWine Other Cabinet Members: Steve Munchin, Wilbur Ross, Larry Kudlow Others: George P Bush, John James, Jeff Van Drew Economic Issues: Every speaker above with the exception of ICE Agents and Alice Johnson and many who are not listed spoke about the Economic Record over and over again in their speech. Vice President Mike Pence's speech accepting the Republican nomination: () Pence: Thank You, Thank You. It has been an honor to be your Vice President for 4 years again and it will be an honor working with the Greatest President of any of our lifetimes, Donald Trump(Applause) in his goal to make America great again and my friends not only has he succeeded in making America great again he has succeeded in making America greater than we have ever been in our history(Applause). We have the greatest economy in our lifetimes: with wages growing at an unprecedented speed, unemployment the lowest in over 50 years, and more people entering the work force then ever(Applause). We have also replaced NAFTA , signed a new trade deal with China, and secured the borders all of which the left told us was impossible 4 years ago and have also destroyed ISIS(Applause). Now is not the time to stop, we must continue our progress and the only way to do that is by giving President Trump 4 more years in the White House and give Republicans back control of the House. The Democrats have obstructed our progress the past two years and the way we can end that is by giving the GOP back control of the House. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America. President Donald Trump's speech accepting the Republican Nomination: () Trump: Thank You, Thank You. 4 years ago when I promised that we would make America Great Again and not only have we made America Great again but we have made America Greater than it ever has been(Applause). Our economy is stronger than ever, wages have grown much faster in my administration than in any administration in decades and more so for the working men and women of America than the rich(Applause) like the Democrats claim while in the previous Administration all the growth went only to the well and connected. The unemployment rate is at it lowest rates in more than 50 years , the stock market is at record highs and thanks to our tax cuts , more Americans are able to keep more of their money as well(Applause). We have replaced the worst trade deal in history NAFTA with one of the best the USCMA which puts our workers first and signed a trade deal with China which will help stop outsourcing our jobs to China as well(Applause). In my second term I look forward to continuing these policies to keep America Great(Applause). 4 years ago I promised you to help secure the borders and we have. Despite the Democrats best efforts , we have got funding for the wall and are in the process of building the big and great wall(Applause). We have stopped potential terrorists from coming into our country which will keep our country safe, and basically have implemented a merit-based immigration system by making sure immigration are the ones who get green cards(Applause). We have also destroyed ISIS , which 4 years ago the Democrats were saying was impossible and guess what we did it in only one year because we are letting our military win wars again(Applause). Despite the Democrats fake Russian Investigation, we have been more tougher on Russia than any administration since Reagan and the reason why they want to have a good relationship with us now is that I won on that issue(Applause) unlike the Democrats. Unlike the Obama administration, we won on China too which is why we got this trade deal passed(Applause). This is why Democrats have been doing all they could in trying to get rid of me through the fake Russian Investigation, the Impeachment sham to try to drive my numbers down because without those things they know we would be on track for the biggest landslide since Reagan and they cant take it(Applause). If you want to know Democrats tried to remove President Reagan too through fake scandals, the media then was fair unlike they are today (Applause) . The fact is if we want to keep America Great we must continue our work for the next 4 years and also elect Republicans to the House and Senate(Applause). I promise you that if you reelect us we will keep America Great . Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause) Polling Map After the RNC: () Trump/Pence 264 47% Biden/Klobuchar 238 47% Color Code: Green=Tied Light= 1-2 point lead Medium = 3-6 point lead Medum/Dark = 6-10 Point Lead Dark = 10+ point lead King: The Republicans, in my opinion, had an extremely strong and disciplined convention where they just hammered away about the state of the economy over and over again and with our latest poll showing that 2/3 of Americans thinking the economy is strong only really helpt Trump. If Trump had managed to show this discipline through his entire Presidency this would have been very likely another 1996 with a President with a flawed character easily getting reelected over an elder statement due to a strong economy and no war. Of course that isnt the case which is why this is still a race. For Democrats who are freaking out I just want to remind viewers that polling tends to overestimate Republicans in Nevada so that state is very likely is a state which still favors the Democrats and Pennsylvania the polls have the Democrats around half a point ahead which makes the electoral count 264 for the President to 264 for the Democrats. In Wisconsin, the average of polls shows a total tie so the fact is right now we are at a tie or at best a slight edge for the President, and remember this is after 4 days of nothing but positive coverage for the Republicans so I would say this race still favors the Democrats. Van Jones: In my opinion this campaign will depend really on how President Trump runs his campaign, if he runs it like he ran this convention he will be reelected, if he doenst and gets side tracked like he does over and over he will lose. Ben Shapiro(Guest): The irony is how let Trump be Trump won him the election in 2016, well now I think thats what will result in him losing. If he wants to win he needs to keep quiet and just talk about the economy . Don Lemon: Well knowing President Trump , he will be sidetracked as he just cant help himself and that is why I think he Vice President Biden is still the favorite Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 10, 2020, 11:57:16 PM Biden hammers Trump's Record on Healthcare, Foreign Policy and overall decency.
() Cooper: Former Vice President Biden on the campaign trail today hammed Trump's record on healthcare, foreign policy, and called him the divider in chief. He talked about all the attempts Trump has taken to repeal Obamacare, how he has betrayed our allies in Europe, the Kurds and his climate change denialism and lack of overall decency. He called President Trump a disgrace to the oval office and promised that he would bring back honor , decency and empathy back to the White House In almost every rally he has been hitting Trump on these issues for weeks and it seems like it has had an effect on the polls as Vice President Biden now has a 2 point lead in the polls compared to being down by a point 10 days ago. Outrage as President Trump attacks Biden's religious faith and age () Cuomo: Today was another example to show how President Trump has very little decency as instead of debating the former Vice President on the substance of his argument he goes to the gutter. Here Trump: Dont you hate it when people like Sleepy Joe hide behind their religion when its obvious he probably never goes to church and is not a true Christian in any sense of the word. Sleepy Joe is a phony Christian Cuomo: That phrase if you guys dont use was used as a dog whistle against Catholics like Al Smith and JFK to make it seem like if you are a Catholic you arent a real Christian and that attack is disgraceful in every way. He didnt end there though Trump: Not only is Sleepy Joe not a real christian but its obvious looking at him he has lost it and is way way too old for the job, I mean he will turn 80 in two years and the fact is we dont need someone that old leading this nation especially someone who has lost it like Sleepy Joe. We need a high energy guy Cuomo: Vice President Biden responded Biden: Mr.Trump today proved why he has no decency at all, and has totally disgraced the Presidency. Trump falls behind in polls entering Debate due to recent controversy over his comments on Vice President Biden () Biden/Klobuchar 304 51% Trump/Pence 188 45% Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 11, 2020, 01:00:28 AM Senate Races with chances of flipping:
() King: Ok lets go over to the magic wall to look over the battleground Senate races and lets first change the map from the 2016 Election Results to this year's senate races. Ok let's go over the races we believe are almost certain to flip Senate Races almost certain to Flip: Alabama: Senator Doug Jones(D) vs Former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville(R)- Safe Republican Pickup Colorado: Senator Cory Gardner(R) vs Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper- Likely Democratic Pickup King: So from here Democrats would need to gain 4 Senate seats to win control, 3 if they gain back the White House. So lets look at the battleground races first Battleground Senate Races: Michigan: Senator Gary Peters(D) vs Businessman John James(R)- Lean Democratic Hold Arizona: Senator Martha McSally(R) vs Retired Astronaut Mark Kelly(D)- Tilt Democratic Pickup Maine: Senator Susan Collins(R) vs Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon(D)- Tossup North Carolina: Senator Thom Tillis(R) vs State Senator Cal Cunningham(D) - Tossup Georgia Special: Senator Kelly Loeffler(R)/Representative Doug Collins(R) vs Reverand Raphael Warnock(D)/Businessman Matt Lieberman(D) - Tilt Republican Hold Georgia: Senator David Perdue(R) vs Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson(D)- Lean Republican Hold King: So Democrats to win the senate must hold Michigan , and then must , I mean must win Maine and North Carolina. If they do that they will just need one of the remaining 3 seats left to win control of the Senate as long as they win the Presidency, if not they will need two. Now lets say its a Democratic Wave or a Republican Wave then not only could the beneficiary party win all these seats but potentially put these long-shot races into play Long Shot Races: New Hampshire: Senator Jeanne Shaheen(D) vs Former New Hampshire House Speaker Bill O'Brien(R) - Likely Democratic Hold Iowa: Senator Joni Ernst(R) vs Former Admiral Micheal Franken(D) - Likely Republican Hold Texas: Senator John Cornyn(R) vs Former Air Force Major MJ Hegar(D)- Likely Republican Hold King: If Republicans get a wave there is a possibility they could take New Hampshire and gain 2 seats in the Senate giving them 55 senate seats come January along with probably the House as well. Now if Democrats get a wave there is a possibility they could gain up to 7 seats which would give them 54 senate seats and likely give Biden a large enough majority to pass his agenda without votes not only from Republicans but from a few Moderate Democratic Senators as well. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 12, 2020, 12:32:28 AM Summary of First Presidential Debate moderated by Chris Wallace:
() Key Point 1: Wallace: Vice President Biden, you have gone after The President's record on the issue of Healthcare so why do you think the President's record is bad and what would you do differently Biden: Well the fact is millions of Americans have lost health insurance under the Presidency of my opponent and if not for my friend the late Senator John McCain, it was projected that over 20 million people would have lost insurance under President Trump's plan. Now is Obamacare perfect, no and the fact is President Obama and I wanted to put in place a public option as well to force private insurance companies to reduce their prices even more and if I am elected and you vote in a Democratic Senate, passing a public option will me my number one pritory and we will use reconciliation to create a public option with 50 votes as well. Trump: What the Vice President said is false, the reason health insurance prices have gone is due to the fact our plan to replace Obamacare didnt pass so the fact is the increases in prices is on the people who created Obamacare which is the previous adminstration which Vice President Biden not only was part of but other than President Obama,had more power than anyone else. The fact is if you elect a Republican House this November , now seeing the impacts of now replacing Obamacare, we will replace Obamacare and fix this broken system that my opponent helped create Biden: That is not the facts, as if you remember the President and the Republicans removed the individual mandate in their tax reform bill , a key provision of Obamacare so the fact is President Trump is responsible for the increase in health insurance prices as the whole reason you have a mandate is to make sure our emergency rooms dont get overwhelmed and then have the costs passed on to everyone else. Also it lowers the average risk per person which is how health insurance costs are calculated Trump: Well my administration unlike your's and Obama's belief in the idea that people get to choose not the goverment . Wallace: Moving on Key Point 2: Wallace: As all of you know ,we are in the longest economic expansion in history so the chances of recession happening in the next 4 years are high. So if either of you are elected what would be your policy to minimize the impacts of such a recession Trump: Well the fact is there was a recession projected in 2018 and 2019 when I took office but the tax cuts we passed helped our economy avoid such a recession and instead we now have the best economy in our history. So we inherited an economy which was on verge of recession and helped kickoff a new unprecedented boom and if I am re-elected we will extend the tax cuts permanently to make sure this boom continues and we can keep America great. Biden: Well that point is laughable, the President inherited a growing economy from President Obama and is celebrating cause he didnt crash it. Thats a low bar , and what we need to do now is make sure the economic gains are spread out to everyone Trump: Our adminstration has done that wage growth is much faster in our adminstration than under yours and so is job growth Biden: Again that is not true,it was higher in President Obama's 2nd term than yours and you just inherited it Wallace: To correct both of you Job Creation was higher under Obama's 2nd term but wage growth is faster now. So Biden: Alright but still the fact is its much easier to inherit a good economy and manage it then manage the worst economy since the depression and make it great again. Let me remind you that economy we inherited was caused by the same Republican policies the President now is implementing Trump: Actually that is wrong our tax cuts were different than George Bush's and it shows as economic numbers are greater in my administration then it was in Bush's or Obama's. Biden: That is just not the facts Mr.President Wallace: Moving On Important Moment 3: Wallace: Vice President Biden you believe that President Trump has not delivered on his promises to blue collar workers, why is that and what would you do differently Biden: Well the fact is outsourcing has increased under President Trump tenure as President , there has been no infrastructure project like he promised and he has actually cut spending on social programs many people rely on. My belief instead is instead of continuing to give tax breaks to the wealthiest people in this nation, we should raise the corporate tax rate up to 28%, crack down on tax shelters and place a minimum tax rate on corporations which would give us the funding needed to pass 1 trillion dollar infrasture program which can help revitalize many of our left-behind communities. Trump: Chris the idea that the left behind people in America are still behind left behind is just fake news. There has been a manufacturing boom under my presidency, with hundreds of thousands of new jobs being created in these communities and the fact is if you elect my opponent we will go back to the policies of the Obama Administration which were a total and utter disaster for blue collar workers while we have been nothing but great for blue collar workers. We replaced the worst trade deal in our history NAFTA with the best on the USCMA and our tax cuts made it easier for businesses to create jobs here instead of overseas. So the fact is we have been nothing but great for blue collar communities and we will continue to be great if you reelect us. Biden: Again the fact is President Trump just wants us to give him credit for taking the economy he inherited from President Obama and I and not ruining it . The fact is people are still struggling out there in blue collar America and we have to invest in those areas to help revitalize it and giving more tax breaks to people who dont need it is not the answer. The answer is to invest in those communities. Trump: Thousands of New Factories have opened in my presidency and many more will Polling Map After Debate: Blitzer: Most voters believe that the winner of the first debate was President Trump and that has affected the polling as Vice President Biden's lead has been cut by more than half and here's how our polling map looks like now () Biden/Klobuchar 264 49% Trump/Pence 249 47% King: Vice President Biden still has the slight edge as he only needs to win either Arizona or Wisconsin to win the Presidency while President Trump needs both to be reelected. One thing though to remind viewers is the topic of the first debate : Economic Policy largely was one where people going in thought the President had the advantage while the last debate Foreign Policy is one where people think Vice President Biden has the advantage so the fact is with how volatile this campaign has been , the debate schedule does favor Vice President Biden Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 12, 2020, 10:01:07 PM Summary of Vice Presidential Debate moderated by Judy Woodruff
() Important Moment 1: Woodruff: Senator Klobuchar you have criticized Vice President Mike Pence for fully being behind the President no matter what, so if you were elected would you not be fully behind say a President Biden's agenda Klobuchar: Judy there is a difference between supporting the President's agenda and being fully behind the President no matter what . The fact is as human beings none of us are perfect and no President ahs been perfect including Washington and Lincoln so it is our duty as the Vice President to tell the President when he is wrong that he is wrong and why because the President making a wrong decision is bad for our nation. Now the facts are Vice President Pence instead has never stood up to President Trump one bit. For example, after Charlottesville, Vice President Pence should have told the President that no both sides are not to blame and their arent good people on both sides and told him not to give that disgraceful press confrence like he did which divided our nation even more. If I am wrong about this, tell me Vice President Pence when you stood up to the President Pence: Well the fact is you would need to stand up to a President Biden while I dont need to for President Trump, cause President Trump has done a fantastic job. Under his leadership, we have the best economy in our history , ISIS has been defeated and we have record peace and prosperity so there is not need for me too. Klobuchar: This is the exact problem, no President no matter how good you think they are , are perfect but I am sure you know that. The reason you dont speak up is President Trump gets offended whenever someone says he is wrong even for the most minor thing possible which shows how insecure he is. Vice President Biden on the other hand, unlike President Trump, is not insecure and unlike President Trump believes in the fact that listening to advice is a good thing because nobody is an expert at everything. Woodruff: Moving on Important Moment 2: Woodruff: Vice President Pence, the Trump administration has been characterized as having lots of turnover , if you are reelected will things change in your 2nd term. Pence: Judy, you have to look why there was lots of turnover. When the President was elected he believed the establishment would actually respect the results of the election which is why he nominated people such as Mattis, Tillerson and Sessions but the fact is when they came in they did all they could to stifle the Trump agenda. The only thing the President regrets is not getting rid of them earlier and replacing them with Esper, Pompeo, and Barr much earlier . So yes there will be less turnover in the 2nd term because more of the swamp has been drained unlike in the first two years. Klobuchar: Firstly those 3 arent the only 3 people the President replaced, he fired a lot of people because the fact is he doesnt believe in cabinet members dissenting, instead he believes they should just be yes men and yes women and that is another reason why this administration has been so bad. A President Biden will hire the most qualified and competent people for his cabinet and actually listen to their advice instead of fire people for speaking up. Second the fact is calling Jeff Sessions part of the anti-Trump resistance is ridiculous given he was the first senator to endorse the President in his 2016 primary campaign and was a loyal supporter of the President throughout the primaries . The fact is he was fired because he unlike the current Attorney General , Wiliam Barr refused to cover up abuses of power by President Trump . Pence: The fact is Jeff Sessions recused himself on day one , which made him completely ineffectual which is why he was replaced. I can tell you President Trump would have loved to have him in the senate and would have if Sessions told him about the fact he would recuse himself . Klobuchar: The reason why Sessions recused himself was Sessions had ties to the President which related to the investigation so he had no choice but to recuse himself. Woodruff: Moving on Biden's lead increases to 3.5 points after Debate () Biden/Klobuchar 278 50% Trump/Pence 205 46.5% Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 13, 2020, 03:09:49 AM Summary of the Townhall Presidential Debate Moderated by Lester Holt
() Audience Member : President Trump, since you first began running back in 2015 you have made immigration your signature issue , so what have you done actually as President to secure the border and deal with this problem and what do you plan to do in your second term Trump: Thank You for the question and the answer is quite frankly a lot . We have increased border security at the border, and have begun constructing the wall which should be built in a couple years. We have also increased vetting to make sure violent criminals do not come into this country but you are right there is a lot of work to be done. There needs to be a deal made about what to do with dreamers and frankley the Democrats keep blocking that effort and we also need to change our immigration system to make sure we can retain high skilled immigration and a Republican senator Mike Lee has sponsered that effort but as usual the Democrats are stopping it. Biden: What President Trump just said there is all nothing but a falsehood. Just last year the Vox reported that illegal crossings were at an 11 year high which coincidently it coincides with the last time the Republicans were in the White House. The fact that he wants to make a deal with dreamers is a lie because if you remember in 2018 the Democrats offered him a deal that would fund his entire wall as long in exchange of giving Dreamers legal status and he turned it down because the fact is President Trump is more interested in using this issue to drive up voters in his base than actually doing something about it. All he actually has done on the issue is separate families and put kids in cages which is a total disgrace in every way as our country is supposed to stand up to things like that. Trump: The Family Separations were done by President Obama and your administration while my administration ended it so what you are saying is fake news. Next that is not true the Democrats wanted much more than just DACA and shut down the government as well which is why a deal couldnt be made and the fact is we are building the wall. Holt: We are moving on Biden: Can I finish Holt: 30 seconds Biden: Actually that is not true Democrats offered you the entire wall for just reinstating DACA but you listened to Stephen Miller who told you to reject it Holt: Moving on Important Moment 2: Audience Member: Vice President Biden, what will be your plan to deal with the skyrocketing costs of living in this nation Biden: Thank You for the question and the answer is first we must raise the minimum wage to $15 dollars an hour which will make it easier for working families in this nation to pay the rent due to the fact they will have more money in their pockets. Second we must reduce the cost of healthcare in this country and my plan is to put into place a Public Option which will give Americans a cheaper option to private insurance and force the private insurers to bring down costs to continue to attract customers. Then lastly we must work with city governments to increase funding for low-income housing all across the nation . Trump: The Vice President is right wages must go up and the fact is in the past 4 years they have gone up 7% which makes it easier for Americans to afford their rent and we must continue that growth. The fact is raising the minimum wage to $15 dollars and hour will be a total disaster as many small businesses throught the nation cannot afford to hire employees at that cost so what that will do is throw people out of work which would make it even harder for people to pay the rent. Lastly I want to throw this fact out , the state of Texas a state controlled by Republicans has much lower housing prices than the state of California and New York so its pretty obvious Democratic policies on this issue have been a total and huge failure while Republican policies on this issue have been a success. Biden: First of all I am sure companies like Wall-Mart and Amazon can afford to pay their employees 15 dollars and hour and the cost to pay for such an increase is less than your tax cut to them so if your tax cut was as good as you claimed they should be able to afford that increase.Next again President Trump leaves out so many excuses, the reason Texas has low housing prices is that there is so much land where you can build new houses while that is not true for California. Trump: Those are nothing but excuses for your party's failure Joe. Holt : Moving on Important Moment 3: Audience Member: This is a question for both candidates, what would be your plan on the issue of criminal justice reform is you are elected Holt: President Trump you can go first Trump: Well the fact is my administration has done more on this issue than any other administration with the passing of the first step act which freed thousands of prisoners who shouldnt have been there. I also am in support of the second step act which will make it easier for inmates when they get out of prison to get jobs and in my second term we will pass that into law. Biden: Well if you remember President Obama commuted thousands of sentences for nonviolent drug offender and I will do that again from day 1 as doing so will defacto help reform the criminal justice system. I will also appoint an attorney general who will recommend lesser sentences for future nonviolent offenders as well . These are the things a President by himself and that is what I would do. Legislatively I will ask Congress to pass a bill decriminalizing marijuana Trump: Well the fact is you are responsible for the broken system with you terrible crime bill you passed in 1994 and I have been cleaning up your mess. You were one of the biggest supporters of these terrible criminal justice reform policies over and over again and once you even joined forces with a segregationist, Strom Thurmond in that effort so the fact is you have been nothing but a failure on this issue Joe while I have been nothing but a success. Biden: Unlike you I can admit when I was wrong and I was wrong on the issue, and so were you. You for one wrote an op-ed asking New York to sentence the Central Five to Death and even after they were exonerated you never apologized for that and instead doubled down which was nothing short of terrible. You also nominated two drug warriors, Jeff Sessions and William Barr to be the head of the justice department and have barely committed any nonviolent offenders Trump: That is just fake news, I never doubled down on the central park five and what you are saying is a lie Lester Holt: Actually you did in 2015 Trump: I was talking about how terrible the process was not doubling down and yes appointing Jeff Sessions was a mistake thats why I fired him and then in the senate primary this year made sure he didnt win the Republican nomination when I endorsed the great Coach Tommy Tuberville. So stop drying to hide behind your terrble record because my record ever since I got into politics has been better than yours Holt: Moving On Trump wins Debate , gets back within 2 points: () Biden/Klobuchar 264 49.5% Trump/Pence 260 47.5% Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: Sir Mohamed on February 13, 2020, 10:04:14 AM Well written TL, but looks like your prediction was way off. Unless Biden makes a stunning comeback. Something I I don't see anymore.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: 538Electoral on February 13, 2020, 12:40:47 PM Either a narrow Trump win or a narrow Biden win.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 13, 2020, 10:30:43 PM Summary of Final Presidential Debate Moderated by Margaret Brennan:
() Important Moment 1: Brennan: Vice President Biden, you have said you believe that the issue of climate change should be forefront in talks with other nations and at summits. If elected what would you do to get the world united to deal with the issue of Climate Change Biden: Margaret, the first thing we need to do is re-enter the Paris climate change agreement to show the rest of the world that the US is willing to lead on this issue. Then what we need to do is we must point in climate change provisions in future trade deals to ensure that the rest of the world would join us in implementing policies that reduce emissions. President Trump, on the other hand, has taken us backward, getting us out of the Paris Climate Agreement which sent a message to the world that the US will go backward on the issue of climate change and PresidentTrump's regulatory policies on that have further sent that message. We cannot afford to ignore this issue any longer and must deal with this issue now Trump: The Paris Climate Change was a scam made to make the US pay more. The facts are that emissions have gone down under my watch because big goverment policies just do not work and the idea we have to negotiate trade deals based on more government regulations to ruin other nations economies is a big fat joke. Biden: That mindset there is the exact problem because the fact is President Trump works for fossil fuel special interests who want him to make it seem like climate change is not a problem when it clearly is. By the way, it's just not Democrats who want something done about it, a poll of Republicans shows that they want something done on the issue, it is President Trump and the Special Interests he is afraid off . Trump: You are the one controlled by special interests not me Important Moment 2: Brennan: President Trump you have made dealing with China one of your top priorities of your administration, and so far you have signed a phase 1 deal, so if you are reelected what types of pressure will you put too get a phase 2 deal passed or maybe an overall trade deal Trump: As you know since it was only a Phase 1 Deal, we did not remove all our tariffs against China so, and until we get an overall trade deal passed those tariffs will remain in place. I have gotten to know President Xi and I can tell you I have a great relationship with President Xi so I am confident that we can pass a trade deal within a year or two into my second term. Biden: The fact that you are bragging about having a great relationship with a leader who has flagrantly violated the human rights of his citizens while you go after allies truly makes no sense what so ever. The fact is it is more than high time that we go after China for their Human Rights abuses and place Sanctions against them for those abuses like putting a million Uighurs in concentration camps. It is unacceptable that in the year 2020 that that type of human rights abuse happens and we should sanction them for that, request our allies which this President has destroyed relations to do the same. As for a trade deal , it needs to be made clear that no trade deal be signed until they close down those concentration camps for good. Trump: I have done far more against the Chinese than the Obama administration did, so while you are talking about doing things now why didnt you when you had the authority. Thats right you didnt have the guts to do so like I do Biden: What you are saying is 100% false, we were working with our allies such as South Korea, a ally President Trump has estranged us with along with other allies in the nation to put a check on their military buildup , and negotiated a trade deal the TPP to put a check on China. Instead of ratifying that treaty you pulled us out of it and then lately you agreed to a phase one trade deal without any human rights guarantees. Trump: I am not willing to ruin our chances of signing a trade deal like you are Joe. TPP would have resulted in millions of jobs being outsourced thats why I withdrew us from it Biden: Whats more important: standing up for Human Rights or a Trade Deal, its clearly standing up for human rights and if that jeopardizes are the ability to sign a trade deal, then so be it as standing up for Human Rights and Human Dignity are more important. Important Moment 3: Brennan: Vice President Biden, You have criticized the way, President Trump withdrew troops from Northern Syria last year and is planning to withdraw troops from Afghanistan but didnt yours and President Obama's administration to the same thing in Iraq . Biden: No if you remember that withdrawal plan was signed by George W Bush not our administration and it was the Iraqi government who then said we would only allow a residual force if we abide by certain laws which we as Americans obviously think are immoral so because of that we had no choice but to leave the way we did. President Trump, on the other hand, was not asked to withdraw troops by the Kurds but did so which resulted in many innocent Kurds dying and now in Afghanistan he is negotiating an exit strategy with the Taliban out of all the people . What should have been done is negotiate an exit strategy with the government not the Tailban Trump: The fact is your Iraqi withdrawal plan not Bush's led to the lead to the creation of ISIS which by the way I defeated. I believe we must withdraw troops from the middle east and yes to do so requires negotiating a deal with both sides. Biden: That is absolutely false, it was Obama's administration which trained Iraqi forces to take down ISIS and most of ISIS territory was recaptured by the fall of 2016 while you took over in January of 2017 so what you are saying is false. The fact is Mr.President you decision to withdraw troops from North Syria resulted in the deaths of so many innocent Kurds, an ally of us who were instrumental in our win agianst ISIS and you betrayed them just so you can brag in your rallies you withdrew troops like you promised. Trump: All of our troops have to get out at some point and I unlike your and Obama's administration who promised the same thing back in 2008 is actually keeping my word. Biden: Wrong, you just moved those troops to Saudi Arabia so you have not withdrawn troops so you are misleading the people completely here. Trump: Yes we put troops in Saudi Arabia because they were in threat of being attacked by Iran Brennan : Moving on Biden doubles lead in polls after strong debate performance: () Biden/Klobuchar 289 51% Trump/Pence 189 47% King: This is still a close election as if Trump wins all the pure tossup states and Arizona and Wisconsin he wins the Presidency but at this point Vice President Biden has the edge. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 14, 2020, 12:52:27 AM Final Polling Map of Campaign:
Wolf Blitzer: With only one day left till the 2020 Presidential Election , the final average of all polls in this campaign shows Vice President Biden with a 3 point lead over President Trump. Now lets go over to John King and to see what that means in the all-important electoral map John King: Yes to remind viewers you need 270 votes to win and what our polling map is showing us is this () Biden/Klobuchar 268 51% Trump/Pence 234 48% King: So Vice President Biden only needs to win one of the 3 remaining states which are tied to win the election while President Trump needs to run the table but lets remember something , these polls have a range of error so that puts these states which are Tilt in play. So President Trump can get to 270 if he loses one of of these 3 states if he wins Pennsylvania which is ironically where he will be holding his last rally of the campaign. On the other hand Vice President Biden is holding his last rally in Atlanta, Georgia as say he loses all those states or two of those states and Pennsylvania then taking Georgia away from the Trump column will make him the next President. Blitzer: Thanks John, and to remind our viewers we will start election coverage at 6:45 PM ET tomorrow and at 7:00 PM ET we can start telling you the real result so I hope you join us tomorrow evening for our coverage of Election Night 2020 Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: Sir Mohamed on February 14, 2020, 03:15:40 AM Prediction: Biden wins with 289 EVs; takes back Rust Belt + AZ.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: UWS on February 14, 2020, 08:51:59 AM Has there been an October surprise yet?
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 14, 2020, 09:44:20 AM Has there been an October surprise yet? No and there won’t be for this election Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: BigVic on February 14, 2020, 07:19:50 PM So far an ordinary election.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 14, 2020, 10:41:24 PM CNN - America's Choice 2020(Exit Polls)
() https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs Race: White: 69% ; Trump 58% Biden 40% Hispanics: 13% ; Biden 70% Trump 29% African-Americans: 12% ; Biden 89% Trump 10% Asian: 5% ; Biden 60% Trump 39% Other: 2% ; Biden 61% Trump 37% Sex: Male : 48% ; Trump 54% Biden 45% Female : 52% ; Biden 57% Trump 42% Age: 18-29: 20%: Biden 62% Trump 36% 30-44: 26%: Biden 55% Trump 44% 45-64: 39%: Trump 54% Biden 45% 65+ : 15%: Trump 53% Biden 46% Income: Under 50k: 35% ; Biden 56%, Trump 42% 50k-100k: 32% ; Trump 51%, Biden 48% 100k-250k: 27%; Trump 50%, Biden 49% 250k+: 6%: Biden 49%, Trump 49% State of Economy: Good: 65% ; Trump 64% Biden 35% Not Good: 35%: Biden 81% Trump 18% Tapper: From these numbers, they look much closer to 2016 than they do with 2018 but I would say they line up with the final pre election polls, that Vice Preisdent Biden has the edge King: Looking at the economy numbers, it is stunning that this election is not a 1996 style reelection victory for President Trump given those numbers . The fact is the phrase Let Trump be Trump probably helped him win in 2016 but if he loses tonight, Let Trump be Trump cost him big. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: Pericles on February 15, 2020, 04:34:32 AM My guess is the electoral vote totals from 2016 are reversed as Biden flips AZ, GA, MI, NE-02, PA, and WI, therefore getting 306 EVs (with around a 5 point PV win). NC might also flip though, guessing it is held by Trump with a very narrow margin.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 16, 2020, 01:38:33 AM CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour One)
() 7:00 PM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs Blitzer: Welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2020 Election, will Donald Trump be going back to the oval office for four more years or will Joe Biden accomplish his long time ambition to becoming the President of the United States. We should know the answer a few hours from now and right now the first polls have closed tonight and we can project that President Trump will carry the states of Indiana and Kentucky while Vice President Biden will carry the state of Vermont. The states of Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida are all too early to call at the moment () Trump 19 Biden 3 Cooper: So far no surprise what so ever but again looking at those exit polls things do look favorable for the Vice President Lemon: While we have declared Mitch McConnell the winner are exit poll shows he will only win it by around 9-10 points which is a favorable sign for Senate Democrats tonight Borger: It really is and this exit poll looking at it is that female voters tonight came out against the President huge and if he loses thats what will cost him. Another striking factor is now how unmarried men are more Republican than Married Women which really shows how stark the gender divide has become in this country. 7:30 Blitzer: The polls have closen in 3 more states and we can now project that President Trump will carry the states of West Virginia and South Carolina while the states of North Carolina , and Ohio at this moment are too early to call () Trump 33 Biden 3 Blitzer: Lets go to John King for an update on important states like Georgia and Florida King: Well right now Vice President Biden has the lead in Florida but remember the pattern in Florida is the early count favors the Democrats, then for the bulk of the night the count favors the Republican and then in the end the count favors the Democrats heavily so the question is in some key counties how is President Trump doing. Well for example its not a key county but in Miami-Dade 4 years ago Hillary Clinton won Miami Dade 63.7%-34.1% , while right now Joe Biden is up 61%-37% which is good news for President Trump if he can keep it . In Georgia well forget about the percentage cause like Virginia the early vote almost heavily favors the Republicans as rural areas come in faster but some precients in the Atlanta suburbs have come and right now Vice President Biden holds a double digit in Gwinnet and 8 point lead in Cobb which if you look at the 2018 race in Georgia , Abrams won both by double digits but narrowly lost the state, so this state likely will go down the wire. The Senate races are almost going evenly with the Presidential race right now Van Jones: I feel Georgia along with North Carolina and Arizona will be the rust belt of this election in which solid states for one party for a whole generation flip . Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 16, 2020, 02:45:13 AM CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour One)
() 8:00 PM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs Blitzer: It is 8 PM in the east and we can report to you our first patch of major poll closings tonight . We can project President Trump will carry the states of Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, and Oklahoma while Vice President Biden will carry the states of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland, Illionis and the District of Columbia () Trump 76 Biden 75 Tapper: In a key senate race call we can project that former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville will be the next senator from Alabama defeating Democratic Senator Doug Jones. Not a surprise at all but still means Democrats need 4 or 5 seats to take the senate depending on the results of the Presidential Race Cooper: Most likely 4 as I would say its easier to get to 270 then 4 senate seats King: I agree and I think the key will be Georgia and if Vice President Biden can win it or not because if he doesnt Democrats probably dont take the senate. Right now hes doing great in key precincts though , at this point the President still has a slight advantage here Senate: R+1 8:30 Blitzer: The polls have closed in Arkansas and we can project that President Trump will carry the state and its 6 electoral votes () Trump 82 Biden 75 Blitzer: Lets go to John King to see how some of the key states are doing King: Well first in Florida where we can see President Trump has taken a lead and Penellas County a swing county he is outperfoming his 2016 numbers so its still early but at this point I would say Florida leans strongly to President Trump Now in North Carolina another swing state a county is New Hanover county and currently Vice President Biden leads by 3 points, while President Trump won a few years ago but remember Governor Cooper won by nearly 5 points there and still barely won the state. Another key county is Granville county which President Trump and Vice President Biden are trading leads. So at this point I would say this state is still a pure tossup but its tilting more to the Vice President In Georgia , as you can see President Trump still has a huge lead statewide but its dwindling as Fulton county comes in and the once Republican suburbs. If you go back in time , remember George W Bush won Cobb and Gwinnett with over 63% of the vote in 2004 and as late as 2012 they were viewed as safely Republican now those counties are helping the Dems carve out a pathaway to victory in Georgia. Will it come we dont know but it could be the Pennsylvania of this election if it flips King: Another piece of Bad news for the President is in Virginia , Vice President Biden has just taken the lead and with much of NoVA to count is likely he will easily win this . On the other hand some good news is in Ohio , President Trump barely trails and with more of the suburbs and rural Ohio coming in, Ohio seems very likely to go for Preisdent Trump Cooper: lets bring in our team Navarro: Well I am probably gonna be disappointed with my home state of Florida as it looks like President Trump will win that state but at this point I will say thse results actually look worse for him than that exit poll does Cuomo: The way things are going so far , I would say this election so far is not only advantage Joe Biden but clearly so. Santorum: All of you are clearly just overreacting, I think the Rust Belt will put Trump once again over the 270 mark tonight and those states have barely come in other than the very Democratic areas in Pennsylvania Tapper: Some interesting thing I have to say is senator Susan Collins in Maine while outperforming President Trump only by around points which is not good news for Senator Collins at all. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 16, 2020, 08:55:38 PM CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Three)
() 9:00 PM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs Wolf Blitzer: It is 9 in the east and CNN can project that President Trump will win the states of Louisiana, Kansas, 4 of the 5 electoral votes in Nebraska, North and South Dakota, and Wyoming while Vice President Biden will win the states of New York , Virginia and New Mexico. Currently, the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, New , and Texas are all too early too call. () Biden 122 Trump 109 The big one on the map is Texas being too early to call and the last time Texas was not called at polling time was all the way back in 1992 when President George HW Bush won a narrow win in Texas Tapper: That is right and if you remember that was before 1994 the year Texas became the Republican state we have known since then and 2018 and 2020 are signs that their dominance is beginning to show some cracks . King: Yes and the fact is Texas still will very likely go to President Trump , as he currently holds the lead and their is still much of rural , exurban counties too count as well as the still Republican suburbs . From what we got so far is that Collin County a suburb north of Dallas is still going to the President by around 11-12 points, Tarrant a county which people have long called a Texas bellwather is going to the President by around 3 points so far so right now I would say it probably will be within 5-6 points but this state likely will go for the President. Another shock was Virginia which from 1952-2004 only voted for a Democrat once going Democratic so quickly and the only question is does Vice President Biden break President Bush's 04 mark as best performance in Virginia post cold war. Tapper: Stand by we have some key senate projections to make and that is we can project that Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen will be reelected in New Hampshire and Republican senator John Cornyn will be reelected in Texas. Ok back to you John how are some states like Pennsylvania going King: Well right now Vice President Biden still has a massive lead but as these rural counties trickle in , that lead will dwindle so the question is can his lead hold and right now he looks in better shape than Hilalry just by looking at Philli metro. Hes winning 85% of the vote in Philadelphia county, and is so far winning over 60% in Montgomery and Deleware counties, and winning Lackawanna County by 8-9 points . So right now Pennslyvnia looks very good for the Vice President Van Jones: Right now I feel much better than I did in 2016 and the NY Times meter for who wins the Presidency , remember last time around this time Trump became the favorite and then started surging well now its meter is saying Vice President Biden has an 85% chance of becoming the next President which shows that most likely the Democrats will take back the White House Borger: Agreed and look at the House we are projecting Democrats will have anywhere from 229-236 seats at the end of the night so a solid win there too. Santorum: Well right now I think we will lose Pennslyvania but remember if we take Wisconsin , Trump will win so its not over. 9:40: Blitzer: We have some major projections to make and that is President Trump will carry the states of Texas and Ohio. Once again this is no surprise as Texas is a very Republican state and Ohio seems to be on its way of becoming one. In Maine, we can project that Vice President Biden will win 3 of the 4 Electoral votes in Maine while 1 of them will go to President Trump () Trump 166 Biden 125 Cooper: Not a surprise but that does give President Trump a solid lead int he electoral college so far. Tapper: Yes but remember the West Coast hasnt had its polls there and it has 74 electoral votes which are solid for the Democrats Blitzer: Stand by and we have another call to make and that is NBC News can now project that Colorado will be won by Vice President Biden () Trump 166 Biden 134 9:55: Tapper: We have a key race alert and that is in the Colorado senate race, former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper will win defeating Republican senator Cory Gardner. So the overall net change in the senate goes back to 0 for either side Net Chance in Senate: None Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: morgankingsley on February 16, 2020, 09:20:22 PM Tapper: Yes but remember the West Coast hasnt had its polls there and it has 71 electoral votes which are solid for the Democrats 74. Cali and Oregon are 62, then Washington with 12 brings it to 74 Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 16, 2020, 09:23:21 PM Tapper: Yes but remember the West Coast hasnt had its polls there and it has 71 electoral votes which are solid for the Democrats 74. Cali and Oregon are 62, then Washington with 12 brings it to 74 Lol true , ok I will edit it Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: UWS on February 16, 2020, 09:36:01 PM What about the senate race in Michigan?
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 16, 2020, 09:52:34 PM What about the senate race in Michigan? Not enough data in so far so its still too early to call . John King will talk about Michigan early next hour when there is more data Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 17, 2020, 03:05:48 AM CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Four)
() 10:00 PM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs Blitzer: Its 10 PM in the East and we can now project that President Trump will carry the states of Utah and Montana while Vice President Biden will win his running mate Senator Amy Klobuchar's home state of Minnesota.the states of Iowa and Nevada are too early to call () Trump 175 Biden 144 Lemon: This is indeed huge as if you remember Minnesota wasnt called until early morning the day after the election so this in my opinion bodes well for the Democrats in a state like Wisconsin King: Yes it does and lets now look at Wisconsin and lets remind you where the key Democratic and Republican strengths are. Basically Democrats strength in the states comes from the big cities Madison and Milwaukee while the Republican strengths come from the suburbs in Milwaukee called the WOW counties and in the North East of the state. The swing area is down here in SW WI and right now such as Grand and Crawford counties where right now Vice President Biden as the slight lead and in WOW , while the President hasnt lost ground from 2016 he hasnt gained ground either while in the big cities Vice President has. Now lets go over to neigboring Michigan which was a state what shocked us the most in 2016 and here and you can already see problems for President Trump, in Macomb county a large suburb of Detriot 4 years ago President Trump won by 11.5 points last time , he is only winning by 5 points this year, is trailing in Oakland County another suburb by double digits and in Wayne County , Vice President Biden is getting 70% of the vote. In Kent County, a county that has only voted Democratic only 3 times in the past 100 hundred years and once in the past 50 is right now seemingly going towards the Democrats which is not good news for President Trump. Right now I would say Michigan like the polls said lean towards the Democrats On the other hand for the Senate race , it is much closer as Republican John James is winning Macomb by double digits, winning Kent so this Michigan senate race at this point is clearly a tossup . Cooper: One thing , is that unlike in 2016 the polls were not wrong and if they were its looking like they were wrong in favor of President Trump. 10:40: Blitzer: Some more good news for the Biden camp and that is Vice President Biden will carry the state of Michigan and its 16 electoral votes marking officially our first flip from 2016 () Trump 175 Biden 160 Tapper: In the Senate race we can project that long time Republican Senator Susan Collins will go down int defeat to her Democratic challanger, Sara Gideon meaning the Democrats so far have picked up one seat tonight Overall Change in the senate: D+1 King: Florida is one of the only states tonight where President Trump is doing better than he did in 2016 and the reason is he has overperformed in Miami, did very well in the I-4 Corridor and got out turnout in the Panhandle so at this point I think President Trump will win the state Cooper: Stand by for a projection Blitzer: Yes and that is that Florida and it's very important 29 Electoral Votes will go to President Trump () Trump 204 Biden 160 Tapper: A piece for good news for the Republicans tonight is Joni Ernst will have won her reelection bid in Iowa. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: 538Electoral on February 17, 2020, 07:39:23 AM Biden has 238 no matter what. He likely narrowly wins the presidency at this point.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 17, 2020, 06:57:59 PM CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Four)
() 11:00 PM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs Blitzer: The polls have closen int he West and we can project that Vice President Biden will win the states of California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii while President Trump will win the state of Idaho () Biden 238 Trump 208 Cooper: No surprise there at all but it does give the Vice President an electoral college lead once again tonight. Lemon: For people who want to know the NY Times is now saying that Vice President Biden as a 95% chance of being elected the next President and lets go over to John King to see why King: Well first lets remember that President Trump won last time due to very narrow margins in Pennslyvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Well now this time in Pennslyvania for one , the President is doing worse in the Philadelphia suburbs than he did 4 years ago, slightly worse in SW Pennslyvania and is losing Erie county and at this point, I dont see much of a pathway left for the President left in the state and we should be able to call it within the next 10-15 minutes. Michigan has already been called for Vice President Biden so that just leaves Wisconsin and right now again he is losing many counties in SW Wisconsin which he won last time, doing worse in Madison and Milkawake and has barely gained any ground in the Milwaukee suburbs but its still early here and there are many precincts out so the President still has a chance there. Now if for sake of argument he loses Wisconsin too he must win New Hampshire and Nevada to be reelected and while New Hampshire is as ususal extremely close , Nevada isnt looking good at all for him with Vice President Biden winning Clark County by far the largest county in the state by more than 15 points and winning Washoe as well so this one is likely to go for Biden too. At this point while the President still has a path left to being reelected its not gonna be easy at all. Van Jones: This night I can tell you feels so much different from 4 years ago, as not only is the Rust Belt seemingly going to us , but North Carolina seems to be going for us as well, and we have a great shot at Georgia too. Navarro: I think tonight is the voters finally sending a message they have had enough with choas, and unprofessionalism in the Oval Office and are voting for stability at last . It also seems like many voters are punishing the Republicans for not showing a backbone against this man and right now I would say the Democrats will probably take the Senate as well. 11:15: Blitzer: We have a huge projection to make and that is Vice President Biden will carry the critical state of Pennslynvia and it's very crucial 20 electoral votes () Biden 258 Trump 208 Tapper: This is a huge because with Nevada going towards the Vice President all he needs is just one of the other outstanding states witht he exception of New Hampshire to get reelected. Bash: Yes and this point it looks very much like that getting more than 300 electoral votes is possible King : Yes it is because to do so the Vice President would just need the Rust Belt, Arizona and either North Carolina and Georgia. Arizona we likely wont be able to make a call for but North Carolina at this point seems to favor the Vice President as well with strong performance in the suburbs, and while Georgia is still I would say leaning towards Trump there is almost around a 2/5th chance the Vice President wins it. 11:40: Blitzer: CNN can make another key state projection and that is we can now project that Vice President Biden will win the state of Nevada and its 6 electoral votes. () Biden 264 Trump 208 Tapper: We can also project that Senator Peters the Democrat will narrowly hold of the Republican John James in the Michigan Seante Race. In the Georgia Special Election we can also project that Congressman Doug Collins will advance to the runoff to face Reverand Raphael Warnock . Cuomo: That is not the Republican, the GOP wanted to advance to the runoff. King: Yes they are not and that is that if you look at the Regular Senate race, while it looks very likely that Senator David Perdue will eke out a 2-2 and half point win you can see he did so as he managed to keep his margins in the Atlanta suburban counties like Cobb very very close while Collings is considered to be even a worse fit than Trump and right now I will say the Presidential race there will be decided by less than a point. As for the other senate race , North Carolina seems to be exactly tracking the Presidential election with Tillis only outperforming the president by less than a tenth of a point so at this point whoever wins the state of North Carolina likely will drag their party's Senate candidate across the finish line as well Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: morgankingsley on February 17, 2020, 07:18:36 PM Guess: trump keeps Iowa and North Carolina and loses the rest. I can maybe see you giving him Georgia as an extra bone but thats it
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 17, 2020, 07:21:01 PM Guess: trump keeps Iowa and North Carolina and loses the rest. I can maybe see you giving him Georgia as an extra bone but thats it So you are predicting that Biden will win Alaska as thats still out :P Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: morgankingsley on February 17, 2020, 07:43:00 PM Guess: trump keeps Iowa and North Carolina and loses the rest. I can maybe see you giving him Georgia as an extra bone but thats it So you are predicting that Biden will win Alaska as thats still out :P In my defense I forgot Alaska existed for a second Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: UWS on February 17, 2020, 07:57:04 PM And even at that hour NH is still too close to be called?
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 17, 2020, 08:34:57 PM And even at that hour NH is still too close to be called? I think NH will be once again close this time whether the Dems win the presidency or not . Also NH being very small means that unless their is more than a 5 point gap between the candidates it won’t be called until after midnight . Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: 538Electoral on February 17, 2020, 09:45:31 PM Congratulations Biden.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: BigVic on February 17, 2020, 10:38:07 PM Trump wins 270-268. Sweeps the remaining states.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 18, 2020, 03:52:30 AM CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Five)
() 12:17 am https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs Blitzer: CNN Can Now Project that Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of New Hampshire and its 4 electoral votes meaning that Joe Biden is just 2 electoral votes away from being elected the next President of the United States. () Biden 268 Trump 208 Cooper: At this point I would say the race pretty much looks like its a done deal, of course we cant officially say that yet but its hard to see how President Trump comes back to win. King: Yes at this point all Vice President Biden needs to do is win just one state and he will get over the top and right now Vice President Biden is leading in Wisconsin with 95% of the vote in by around 2 points which is a lot to make up for President Trump , is leading in North Carolina with 98% of the vote in by around half a percentage point , and is only trailing in Georgia by one fifth of a percentage point with 99% in. In Arizona Trump does currently has lead but remember there are still lots of vote to count in Arizona and those votes will likely be heavy Democratic so we likely wont get a result here for days. Tapper: We do have some good news for the Republicans and that is Senator David Perdue will be reelected narrowly in Georgia meaning as of this moment Republicans will control 48 Seats to the Democrats 48 so it is tied at the moment but with Alaska almost certainly going to them it likely will give them a 49-48 lead in the seante . Bash: Yes but at this point I would say the Senate is more likely to actually go Democratic because Senator Martha McSally is underperforming Trump in Arizona and she actually had a bigger lead at this point two years ago in a race which she ended up losing and in North Carolina , Tillis and Trump are basically performing equally so with the state of that race that gives the Democrats 50 senate seats and with the Presidency that means they will control the senate as well Breaking News: Joe Biden Elected President of the United States 12:42 am: Blitzer: We have a major projection to make right now Joe Biden Elected President [/size]We can now project that former Vice President and former long time senator Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States and will become the first challenger in 28 years to knock off an incumbent president . The reason for that is we are now able to project that the state of Wisconsin will be won by Vice President Biden meaning that Vice President Biden now will have won 278 electoral votes crossing the 270 electoral vote threshold you need to be elected. () () Biden 278 Trump 208 Van Jones: Tonight was indeed a great night and Vice President Biden now President-Elect Biden ran a great campaign and needs to be applauded for it. Navarro: All I am feeling is the relief knowing we will once again have an adult in the White House again Santorum: Well this was not the result I was hoping for but the people made their choice and I respect that and will be praying for President-Elect Biden's to be successful. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 18, 2020, 04:18:52 AM CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Six )
() 1:00 am https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs Blitzer: Its 1:00 AM in the East and CNN can project that Alaska will be won by President Trump and that President-Elect Biden will win one of the five electoral votes in Nebraksa () Biden 279 Trump 211 1:22: Blitzer: CNN can now project the results in two more states and that is President-Elect Biden will win the state of North Carolina while President Trump will win the state of Iowa () Biden 294 Trump 217 King: Yup with 99% of the precincts in there is at this point less raw votes outstanding than what Vice President Biden's lead of .4 points so due to that we can project that Vice President Biden will indeed win the state 1:35: Tapper: CNN Can make a projection in a senate race and that is Democrat State Senator Cal Cunningham will defeat Republican Senator Tom Tillis to become the next Senator of North Carolina. This means the Democrats now will hold 49 senate seats to the Republicans 49 and they just need to win the Arizona senate race or the Georgia Special to win control of the Senate will Republicans need both to hold on. Blitzer: We have some breaking news to report to you and that is President Trump has indeed phoned Vice President Biden and conceded the election and will give his concession speech within 15 minutes at Mar a-logo . Bash: Well the fact is there is no way the President can win this election now as all the states we have called with the exception of North Carolina dont come close to meeting the threshold of a recount let alone one being actually conducted and that along gives Vice President Biden 279 electoral votes thus still puts him over the top so the President really had no choice but to concede. Lemon: Well the fact is he may have conceded but we dont have a clue if it will be gracious or not . Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: BigVic on February 18, 2020, 05:42:14 AM Biden wins. Hope it happens in real life.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: BigVic on February 18, 2020, 05:42:50 AM Trump wins 270-268. Sweeps the remaining states. It's good to know I'm wrong. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 18, 2020, 02:02:56 PM President Trump's concession speech:
() Trump: A Short While ago , I called Vice President Biden and congratulated him on winning the election and invited him to the White House where we can work together to ensure a smooth transition(Mix of Boos and Appluase). While this was not the outcome I or any of you wanted, it has happened and we have to respect that and wish the President-Elect success(Applause). That does not mean though we have to wish the media well because the people who cost us this election were the fake news media who falsely reported on everything we did over the past 4 years just to make sure this very day happens, from the fake Russia Hoax to Impeachment to lies about everything I said and I can tell you we should never forgive them for this(Applause). The fact is thanks to our policies, our economy is booming and the history books will show that our presidency was the greatest one-term presidency in American history and frankly show our presidency was the greatest in the modern era with the possible exception of Ronald Reagan(Applause). Even the Ronald Reagan never faced the fake hostile media we did or faced an opposition that made it a goal to make sure we fail so all things taken into account our presidency was the greatest in the modern era(Applause) . It has been my honor to represent you for the past 4 years and have your support , and I will always remember that(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America President-Elect Biden's victory speech: () Biden: A Short While Ago I spoke with President Trump and he congratulated us on winning the White House and we both agreed to make sure we work with each other to ensure a smooth transition(Applause). It is time after this long and at times divisive election, to bring our nation together regardless of party so we work to help solve the problems our nation faces(Applause), and today is not the ending of our work but a new beginning. Tonight we begin our work to make sure we can have nation where everyone regardless of income can afford healthcare(Applause), build an economy that benefits everyone in our nation(Applause), deal with the effects go global climate change(Applause) and strengthen our alliances around the world to deal with threats(Applause) and I will need all your help to do so because like President Obama said it is not us who create change, it is you the people(Applause). It is you the people who deserve credit for this win and I want to thank you and I promise that I will work hard every day to keep the trust you gave in me(Applause). I want to thank all my volunteers who fought hard in both the primaries and general election to help make this day happen(Applause) and thank my family who gave me the support to go this far(Applause). Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause) Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OBD on February 18, 2020, 02:09:15 PM This is the best possible timeline that we don't deserve. Nice job!
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 18, 2020, 02:12:32 PM This is the best possible timeline that we don't deserve. Nice job! Thanks Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: libertpaulian on February 18, 2020, 03:14:59 PM Great so far! Can't wait to see the final results of Election Night, and if Biden can flip AZ and/or GA. How the House and Senate look. And governors and state legislatures.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 18, 2020, 03:37:36 PM Great so far! Can't wait to see the final results of Election Night, and if Biden can flip AZ and/or GA. How the House and Senate look. And governors and state legislatures. The Senate so far is 49-49 with Arizona still undecided due to how long it takes to get results in AZ and the GA special senate race is going to a runoff between Collins and Warnock. As for the house , Democrats have kept control and will have between 229-236 seats (final number I will tell when I write up the final results post ). Governor they all stayed the same except Montana which it’s close but it’s favoring the Republican candidate right now . Feel free to make some cabinet predictions too and I am happy you have enjoyed the TL it Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: President Johnson on February 18, 2020, 03:47:19 PM YEEES! Uncle Joe! Oh please let this come true in the end. I can dream, right?
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 18, 2020, 06:21:14 PM CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Seven )
() 2:41 am https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs Blitzer: As we cut from our coverage to show you President Trump's concession speech and President-Elect Biden's victory speech CNN was able to project that President Trump did win the state of Georgia and in the Montana Gubernatorial Race - Republican Tim Fox will win making it the only flip for Gubernatorial races tonight () Biden 294 Trump 233 So what did you guys think of President Trump's Concession Speech and President-Elect Biden's victory speech Bash: Well I was surprised how gracious President Trump concession speech started out but then it became clear it was not going to be gracious at all when he started blaming the media for his defeat and basically spoke on and on about that. As for the President I think it was a nice victory speech though obviously no where near as memorable as Obama's back in 2008 . Van Jones: The speeches went exactly like I thought, President Trump concedes the election but in his speech makes it clear who he blames for the defeat while President-Elect Biden's gave a uniting speech which our country desperately need after probably the most divisive 15 year period since reconstruction and I hope our nation can reunite over the next 4 years Blitzer: Well since we will not be able to make a projection in the presidential or senate race in Arizona we will end our election coverage although there is still much to discuss which we will during our regular programming Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: 538Electoral on February 18, 2020, 10:29:43 PM Biden will win AZ. 305-233
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 20, 2020, 12:13:15 AM Democrats Win Control of Senate as Mark Kelly wins Arizona in Senate race and Vice President Biden wins Arizona's 11 electoral votes.
Blitzer: As you know this year , the state of Arizona decided to just release the results of all its mail in ballots at once and the results after those are counted are that Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of Arizona and in the Senate , the Democrat Mark Kelly will win the seante race which means the Democrats will win control of the seante regardless of the results of the Georgia senate race due to the fact that they will control the Vice Presidency. Final Results of Election: Presidential: () Former Vice President Joe Biden(D-DE)/Senator Amy Klobuchar(D-MN) 305 51.5% President Donald Trump(R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence(R-IN) 233 47.4% States decided by 10 points or less: Georgia: Trump 49.8% Biden 49.5% North Carolina: Biden 49.7% Trump 49.3% Arizona: Biden 50.1% Trump 48.8% Wisconsin: Biden 50.3%, Trump 48.7%(Tipping Point State) New Hampshire: Biden 50.4%, Trump 48.5% Florida: Trump 50.7% Biden 48.6% Iowa: Trump 50.5%, Biden 48.3% Pennsylvania: Biden 50.8% , Trump 48.3% Michigan: Biden 51.1% Trump 48 Nevada: Biden 51.5%, Trump 47.2% Minnesota: Biden 51.8% Trump 47.1% Ohio: Trump 52.2% Biden 46.9% Texas: Trump 52.3%, Biden 46.6% Maine: Biden 52.6%, Trump 46.1% Colorado: Biden 53.1% Trump 45.8% Virginia: Biden 53.5%, Trump 45.5% Senate: () Note: Florida on the map stands for Georgia Special Election Democrats 50(+3) Republicans 49(-3) To be Decided in Runoff: 1 House of Representatives: Democrats: 232(-3) Republicans: 203(+4) Gubernatorial Races () Republicans: 27(+1) Democrats: 23(-1) Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OBD on February 20, 2020, 12:20:27 AM Arizona <3
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 20, 2020, 12:50:01 AM DNC Chair Tom Perez to head transition team for President-Elect Biden and will become his Chief of Staff once he takes office
Head of Transition team and Chief of Staff: DNC Chair Tom Perez () Tapper: These choices is no surprise and was widely expected , but now the question becomes who will be the new DNC Chair as since there will be a Democrat in the White, President-Elect Biden will get to pick. Some names we are hearing as part of that short list are: Stacey Abrams, Beto O'Rourke, Andrew Cuomo , Eric Garcetti, and Richard Cordray . Former President Obama announces he will not accept any Cabinet Role and reiterates he has retired from politics. () Lemon: I know you have said no to this question in the past, but given your popularity all around the world and given how many of our relationships with our allies has gone down over the past few years would you accept say a role as Secretary of State and before you say anything let me finish. Obama: No Don, I would not as I have given Michelle a promise that after I left office I would retire from politics officially and I fully intend to keep that promise. Besides, there are tons of people who are qualified for the job and would do a great job as Secretary of State so I dont see the need for me to come back into politics . Lemon: Will you still advise the President-Elect Obama: Of course, but only privately and not in any official role President-Elect Biden meets President Trump in transition meeting: () Trump: I just had a fantastic conversation with President-Elect Biden and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure their is a proper and smooth transition because while I am was not happy of the results of the election , a huge part caused by the fake news media, I care about America First so I will do my best to ensure a smooth transition. Biden: It was good meeting the President and his team to talk about ways we can make this transtion period as smooth as possible and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure we have a smooth transition. Trump: Thank You Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: morgankingsley on February 20, 2020, 01:20:25 AM For anybody who is curious, this would be the results if Biden lost every state he won by less than ten
() Pretty much what people consider a ceiling trump win now here is if Biden won every state he lost by less than ten () Pretty much also the standard ceiling for democrats was that on purpose or did it turn out that way by conincidence Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 20, 2020, 01:39:51 AM ^^Well competitive races basically mean only states that can be won in a best-case scenario or lost in a worst-case scenario are decided by less than 10 points.
Now Virginia/Colorado can vote for a Dem by double digits but I doubt it would in a competitive race, and same with Texas/Ohio on the Republican side it wouldn't in a competitive race. Now Oregon could be decided by less than 10 points but that would take a Trump EV win , and IN/MO could be decided by less than 10 points but again that would take a solid Dem win , probably even an 2008 style victory. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: libertpaulian on February 20, 2020, 12:42:12 PM Buttigieg had better get some kind of role.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 20, 2020, 05:27:18 PM President-Elect Biden Names Foreign Policy Team:
Secretary of State: Former UN Ambassador Samantha Power () Secretary of Defense: Former Florida Senator Bill Nelson () National Security Advisor: Former Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken () UN Ambassador: Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg () Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: BigVic on February 20, 2020, 06:46:03 PM DNC Chair Tom Perez to head transition team for President-Elect Biden and will become his Chief of Staff once he takes office Head of Transition team and Chief of Staff: DNC Chair Tom Perez () Tapper: These choices is no surprise and was widely expected , but now the question becomes who will be the new DNC Chair as since there will be a Democrat in the White, President-Elect Biden will get to pick. Some names we are hearing as part of that short list are: Stacey Abrams, Beto O'Rourke, Andrew Cuomo , Eric Garcetti, and Richard Cordray . Former President Obama announces he will not accept any Cabinet Role and reiterates he has retired from politics. () Lemon: I know you have said no to this question in the past, but given your popularity all around the world and given how many of our relationships with our allies has gone down over the past few years would you accept say a role as Secretary of State and before you say anything let me finish. Obama: No Don, I would not as I have given Michelle a promise that after I left office I would retire from politics officially and I fully intend to keep that promise. Besides, there are tons of people who are qualified for the job and would do a great job as Secretary of State so I dont see the need for me to come back into politics . Lemon: Will you still advise the President-Elect Obama: Of course, but only privately and not in any official role President-Elect Biden meets President Trump in transition meeting: () Trump: I just had a fantastic conversation with President-Elect Biden and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure their is a proper and smooth transition because while I am was not happy of the results of the election , a huge part caused by the fake news media, I care about America First so I will do my best to ensure a smooth transition. Biden: It was good meeting the President and his team to talk about ways we can make this transtion period as smooth as possible and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure we have a smooth transition. Trump: Thank You I hope Trump behaves like this should he lose despite different views. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 20, 2020, 06:51:04 PM DNC Chair Tom Perez to head transition team for President-Elect Biden and will become his Chief of Staff once he takes office Head of Transition team and Chief of Staff: DNC Chair Tom Perez () Tapper: These choices is no surprise and was widely expected , but now the question becomes who will be the new DNC Chair as since there will be a Democrat in the White, President-Elect Biden will get to pick. Some names we are hearing as part of that short list are: Stacey Abrams, Beto O'Rourke, Andrew Cuomo , Eric Garcetti, and Richard Cordray . Former President Obama announces he will not accept any Cabinet Role and reiterates he has retired from politics. () Lemon: I know you have said no to this question in the past, but given your popularity all around the world and given how many of our relationships with our allies has gone down over the past few years would you accept say a role as Secretary of State and before you say anything let me finish. Obama: No Don, I would not as I have given Michelle a promise that after I left office I would retire from politics officially and I fully intend to keep that promise. Besides, there are tons of people who are qualified for the job and would do a great job as Secretary of State so I dont see the need for me to come back into politics . Lemon: Will you still advise the President-Elect Obama: Of course, but only privately and not in any official role President-Elect Biden meets President Trump in transition meeting: () Trump: I just had a fantastic conversation with President-Elect Biden and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure their is a proper and smooth transition because while I am was not happy of the results of the election , a huge part caused by the fake news media, I care about America First so I will do my best to ensure a smooth transition. Biden: It was good meeting the President and his team to talk about ways we can make this transtion period as smooth as possible and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure we have a smooth transition. Trump: Thank You I hope Trump behaves like this should he lose despite different views. I think Trump will behave like this if he loses the tipping point state is beyond a half a percentage point. Otherwise he probably tries to drag it out by trying to file for recounts and if they are denied , he will try to fight those in the courts. Otherwise I believe he will concede then just blame the media non stop for rigging the election against him like he is basically doing here. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 20, 2020, 10:51:50 PM President-Elect Biden Names Economic Team:
Secretary of Treasury: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Member Lael Bainard () Secretary of Commerce: Utah Senator Mitt Romney () Secretary of Labor:Former Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Richard Cordray () Director of Office Management and Budget: Representative Seth Moulton () Director of National Economic Council: Economist Heather Boushey () King: We were told that the President-Elect original choice for the commerce role was Michael Bloomberg, but Bloomberg declined. He also considered John Kasich but Kasich too declined, then after a meeting with Senator Romney, he offered him the Secretary of Commerce Job. I want to let people know that President Obama too nominated a Republican for the job originally but some things fell apart which is why he didnt have a Republican Commerce Secretary during his first term Lastly, now that Mr.Cordray has been named the Labor Secretary he will obviously no longer be in contention for DNC Chair and we are told that Stacey Abrams declined the job too as she is interested in a Gubernatorial run in 2022. Although we are told former Montana Governor Steve Bullock now is the leading contender to be the next DNC Chair Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 21, 2020, 01:18:50 AM President-Elect Biden announces Law Enforcement/National Security Team:
Attorney General: Alabama Senator Doug Jones () Department of Homeland Security: Former Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas () CIA Director: Former Congresswomen Jane Harman () Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 22, 2020, 01:52:34 AM President-Elect Biden names Energy/Environmental team:
Secretary of Energy: Washington Governor Jay Inslee () Secretary of Interior: Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger () Secretary of Agriculture: Secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture Karen Ross () Director of the EPA: Former Presidential Advisor Heather Zichal () Cooper: These picks send a clear message that climate change will be a top priority of President-Elect Biden's administration and not only in contrast to President Trump but even more than former President Obama too Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 22, 2020, 02:03:31 AM President-Elect Biden names new Education Secretary and announces who he will be appointing to head DNC
Secretary of Education: Congresswomen Jahana Hayes () Chair of Democratic National Committee: Montana Governor Steve Bullock () Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 22, 2020, 09:24:42 PM President-Elect Biden appoints rest of cabinet:
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Congresswomen Terri Sewell () Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti () Secretary of Transportation: Businessman Robert Wolf () Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Former Deputy Secretary of Veterans Affairs Sloan Gibson () Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 23, 2020, 04:36:14 PM President Trump's farewell address:
() Trump: My fellow Americans, tonight will be the last time I will be addressing you as your President and I want to thank you for the great honor you gave me of serving you the people as your President. 4 years ago our nation was in deep trouble: with our economy growing at an extremely small rate , wages being lower then they were a decade ago, China and nations around the world laughing us as they ripped us off in trade, radical Islamists growing in power and illegal immigration being out of control. Today our economy is better than it ever has been in our history, wages have grown at historic speeds over the past 4 years, radical islamists have been destroyed , illegal immigration problem no longer being problem and we are winning on trade again. 4 years ago our campaign promised we would make America great again , well not only have we done that but we have made America greater than we ever despite record obstructionism from the Democrats with the Russia Hoax and Impeachment, the dishonest media spouting fake news every day for 4 years and guess what they did succeed but they didnt stop me from winning for the people I promised I would win for. I became President not to win a second term but make America great Again and we succeeded so the fact is in reality they failed because we did win where it matters. Decades from now historians will consider our administration the greatest administration since World War II with the possible exception of the great Ronald Reagan and once they take into account the type of dishonest media attacks we faced, we will be considered the best administration since Lincoln . We did great things and the people who worked for this administration will continue to great things in the future. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 23, 2020, 11:11:10 PM That does mark the end of this mini TL , though if someone wants to cowrite this TL with me(PM me if you are interested) I would be willing to continue it
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: 538Electoral on February 23, 2020, 11:53:45 PM Fine timeline though wasn't happy how it ended.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on July 19, 2020, 02:39:24 PM Well written TL, but looks like your prediction was way off. Unless Biden makes a stunning comeback. Something I I don't see anymore. what do you think of this now Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: MATTROSE94 on July 19, 2020, 03:23:02 PM DNC Chair Tom Perez to head transition team for President-Elect Biden and will become his Chief of Staff once he takes office Head of Transition team and Chief of Staff: DNC Chair Tom Perez () Tapper: These choices is no surprise and was widely expected , but now the question becomes who will be the new DNC Chair as since there will be a Democrat in the White, President-Elect Biden will get to pick. Some names we are hearing as part of that short list are: Stacey Abrams, Beto O'Rourke, Andrew Cuomo , Eric Garcetti, and Richard Cordray . Former President Obama announces he will not accept any Cabinet Role and reiterates he has retired from politics. () Lemon: I know you have said no to this question in the past, but given your popularity all around the world and given how many of our relationships with our allies has gone down over the past few years would you accept say a role as Secretary of State and before you say anything let me finish. Obama: No Don, I would not as I have given Michelle a promise that after I left office I would retire from politics officially and I fully intend to keep that promise. Besides, there are tons of people who are qualified for the job and would do a great job as Secretary of State so I dont see the need for me to come back into politics . Lemon: Will you still advise the President-Elect Obama: Of course, but only privately and not in any official role President-Elect Biden meets President Trump in transition meeting: () Trump: I just had a fantastic conversation with President-Elect Biden and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure their is a proper and smooth transition because while I am was not happy of the results of the election , a huge part caused by the fake news media, I care about America First so I will do my best to ensure a smooth transition. Biden: It was good meeting the President and his team to talk about ways we can make this transtion period as smooth as possible and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure we have a smooth transition. Trump: Thank You I hope Trump behaves like this should he lose despite different views. I think Trump will behave like this if he loses the tipping point state is beyond a half a percentage point. Otherwise he probably tries to drag it out by trying to file for recounts and if they are denied , he will try to fight those in the courts. Otherwise I believe he will concede then just blame the media non stop for rigging the election against him like he is basically doing here. Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 07, 2020, 01:03:32 PM Bump
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: President Johnson on November 07, 2020, 01:23:18 PM Not bad :)
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: BigVic on November 23, 2020, 03:27:12 AM Difference here is Amy Klobuchar instead of Kamala Harris as running mate (no George Floyd) and Trump actually concedes and meets Biden in the WH instead of filing for lawsuits IOTL. Biden would’ve lost MN if he picked Klobuchar IRL.
Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 23, 2020, 03:30:05 AM Difference here is Amy Klobuchar instead of Kamala Harris as running mate (no George Floyd) and Trump actually concedes and meets Biden in the WH instead of filing for lawsuits IOTL. Biden would’ve lost MN if he picked Klobuchar IRL. Also got GA and NC switched up lol Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: Chips on March 21, 2021, 07:37:42 PM Democrats Win Control of Senate as Mark Kelly wins Arizona in Senate race and Vice President Biden wins Arizona's 11 electoral votes. Blitzer: As you know this year , the state of Arizona decided to just release the results of all its mail in ballots at once and the results after those are counted are that Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of Arizona and in the Senate , the Democrat Mark Kelly will win the seante race which means the Democrats will win control of the seante regardless of the results of the Georgia senate race due to the fact that they will control the Vice Presidency. Final Results of Election: Presidential: () Former Vice President Joe Biden(D-DE)/Senator Amy Klobuchar(D-MN) 305 51.5% President Donald Trump(R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence(R-IN) 233 47.4% States decided by 10 points or less: Georgia: Trump 49.8% Biden 49.5% North Carolina: Biden 49.7% Trump 49.3% Arizona: Biden 50.1% Trump 48.8% Wisconsin: Biden 50.3%, Trump 48.7%(Tipping Point State) New Hampshire: Biden 50.4%, Trump 48.5% Florida: Trump 50.7% Biden 48.6% Iowa: Trump 50.5%, Biden 48.3% Pennsylvania: Biden 50.8% , Trump 48.3% Michigan: Biden 51.1% Trump 48 Nevada: Biden 51.5%, Trump 47.2% Minnesota: Biden 51.8% Trump 47.1% Ohio: Trump 52.2% Biden 46.9% Texas: Trump 52.3%, Biden 46.6% Maine: Biden 52.6%, Trump 46.1% Colorado: Biden 53.1% Trump 45.8% Virginia: Biden 53.5%, Trump 45.5% Senate: () Note: Florida on the map stands for Georgia Special Election Democrats 50(+3) Republicans 49(-3) To be Decided in Runoff: 1 House of Representatives: Democrats: 232(-3) Republicans: 203(+4) Gubernatorial Races () Republicans: 27(+1) Democrats: 23(-1) Holy shoot, This basically almost predicted what actually happened. Good job! Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: OSR stands with Israel on March 21, 2021, 08:02:01 PM Democrats Win Control of Senate as Mark Kelly wins Arizona in Senate race and Vice President Biden wins Arizona's 11 electoral votes. Blitzer: As you know this year , the state of Arizona decided to just release the results of all its mail in ballots at once and the results after those are counted are that Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of Arizona and in the Senate , the Democrat Mark Kelly will win the seante race which means the Democrats will win control of the seante regardless of the results of the Georgia senate race due to the fact that they will control the Vice Presidency. Final Results of Election: Presidential: () Former Vice President Joe Biden(D-DE)/Senator Amy Klobuchar(D-MN) 305 51.5% President Donald Trump(R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence(R-IN) 233 47.4% States decided by 10 points or less: Georgia: Trump 49.8% Biden 49.5% North Carolina: Biden 49.7% Trump 49.3% Arizona: Biden 50.1% Trump 48.8% Wisconsin: Biden 50.3%, Trump 48.7%(Tipping Point State) New Hampshire: Biden 50.4%, Trump 48.5% Florida: Trump 50.7% Biden 48.6% Iowa: Trump 50.5%, Biden 48.3% Pennsylvania: Biden 50.8% , Trump 48.3% Michigan: Biden 51.1% Trump 48 Nevada: Biden 51.5%, Trump 47.2% Minnesota: Biden 51.8% Trump 47.1% Ohio: Trump 52.2% Biden 46.9% Texas: Trump 52.3%, Biden 46.6% Maine: Biden 52.6%, Trump 46.1% Colorado: Biden 53.1% Trump 45.8% Virginia: Biden 53.5%, Trump 45.5% Senate: () Note: Florida on the map stands for Georgia Special Election Democrats 50(+3) Republicans 49(-3) To be Decided in Runoff: 1 House of Representatives: Democrats: 232(-3) Republicans: 203(+4) Gubernatorial Races () Republicans: 27(+1) Democrats: 23(-1) Holy shoot, This basically almost predicted what actually happened. Good job! thanks Title: Re: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL Post by: Shaula🏳️⚧️ on September 20, 2021, 07:44:18 PM My guess is the electoral vote totals from 2016 are reversed as Biden flips AZ, GA, MI, NE-02, PA, and WI, therefore getting 306 EVs (with around a 5 point PV win). NC might also flip though, guessing it is held by Trump with a very narrow margin. |