Talk Elections

66% Trump
31% Biden
 
66% Trump
29% Sanders

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/478408-poll-west-virginia-voters-would-view-manchin-negatively-if-he-votes-to

Even then, both are doing better than Hillary.

R internal trying to push Manchin to vote to acquit Trump, but obviously WV will be a Trumpslide, and he could crack 70%.

Yes, this is quite a good poll for Dems. If it is accurate, it suggests that Dems (both Biden and Bernie) should pretty easily win MI and PA.

Manchin is a really, really lucky politician. It’s downright pathetic that Republicans weren’t even competent enough to flip a Democratic Senate seat in a Trump +42 state.

On this we can agree, republican operatives are some of the most biggest fu**cking morons in the country

lean d if sanders is the nominee

This poll is not that great for Trump, if he is doing worse in WV than in 2016 it's hard to see how he can win PA again.
Now, it's a pretty well known fact that polls tend to underestimate republicans in West Virginia, Trump could probably cross the 70% symbolic line

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#West_Virginia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#West_Virginia

Yeah, based on these previous polling numbers I'm pretty sure they're underestimating Trump and that Atlas is getting overly excited about them somehow being good news.

Anyone who disagrees with that is obviously a fascist.

But rose twitter told me that Bernie would be able to flip back West Virginia because of muh revolution!

This would be Safe D with Big Don Blankenship/Richard Ojeda. It would also have mega coattails which would flip KY/The Virginia coal fields and OH as well.

HE. WON. EVERY. COUNTY. IN. 2016.

Wait until Bernie does a rally in Wheeling. All those Republican leaders will be eating out of his hands!

Did you hear that he won every county in West Virginia in 2016?

Dems arent looking at Prez numbers, but downballot races like Gov and Senator are gonna get competetive and Congress

If Trump is only winning WV 66-31, he is probably losing the EC. I would take this result in a heartbeat.

Even though Sanders swept WV in the 2016 primary, exit polls from back then indicated that among Democratic primary voters, 33% of them planned to vote for Trump against Sanders in the GE (36% of them for Trump against Clinton), which is a clear indication that Sanders wouldn't have been favored against Trump in the GE (remember that Bush & McCain each won 30% of Democrats in WV in 2004 & 2008, respectively).

If he wins WV by 35 points, compared to the 41 points he won it by in 2016, it almost certainly means he's losing PA because he's not getting the margins he needs in the T, and quite possibly NC and GA as well.

I know, you know, we all know, but red rose Twitter will just keep posting "HE WON EVERY COUNTY" and will put clap emojis between the words if we still disagree.

Ohio would be in heavy contention in such a hypothetical too.

I would suggest not to take the result of WV too literally. The state dramatically voted for Trump in 2016 and is likely to see to reverse a bit of that trend back. I also expected Biden and Sanders to do even better than this. The state isn't competitive. And I wouldn't draw conclusions based on this poll to extrapolate to other states. This is still a good poll for Trump. This is nowhere near a 2008 and 2012 result and such polls tend to underestimate Republicans.

Sandernists aren't exactly the most rational persons on this earth, you know

But should we take it seriously?

I doubt Manchin runs again in 2024 (and if he does he probably loses), so it seems to me there isn’t a big political incentive to acquit.

Trump will surpass 70% in West Virginia, regardless of whether or not he’s re-elected.  I said the same thing some time ago.

This is by the economic-fascist Club for Growth, whose ethos seems to be that no corruption, human suffering or environmental damage can ever be in excess so long as it yields, enforces, or augments a profit. Nobody can doubt that West Virginia will be one of the strongest states for Trump and will give him a landslide margin of victory even in a landslide loss nationwide. West Virginia has no large anti-Trump constituency now that coal mining is a dying industry.   

This is just feel-good GOP propaganda fodder.
How would Dems react to a pollster bothering to find a Dem+50 result in DC?


Just stop.

That would be a really bad poll for Dems, at least if it wasn't only +50 only because of "undecideds." Dems should be winning DC by at minimum 80%, and really should be more.

The one and only time the GOP garnered more than 20 percent in DC was 1972.

The last time the GOP obtained more than 10 percent of the vote was 1988.

WV is looking to become the anti-DC.

This is an odd poll for the Club for Growth to release, considering that Trump defeated Clinton here 68-26. If these swings were replicated nationally, it would point to a fairly decisive Democratic victory.

I don't know what the point of pressuring Manchin not to indict is, since it doesn't matter either way. I guess if Manchin still wants to win an election in WV he should vote against it; I think the conventional wisdom is that he will seek to return to the governorship in 2024.

It's also worth remembering that these are the voters most committed to and invested in him, and if he's losing ground with them, he could be losing even more ground in de-industrialized areas of the rust belt and the rural midwest.

It'll be much closer. Trump has failed to bring back coal jobs and everyone in West Virginia that has ever existed has worked in coal. They wont forget in 2020. Tossup