Talk Elections

And again, more proof Biden is the most electable of the Top 4.

Why does warren consistently underperform sanders in Ge polls even though their platform is same?

Annatar and ElectionsBoy owned.

I think it's because, personality-wise, she's horrible compared to him.

I think its pretty much certain Wisconsin is going to look more like this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Wisconsin

and this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election_in_Wisconsin

and less like this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Wisconsin

and this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Wisconsin

Map wise it will look more like a mix between 2016 and 2018 Gov.

Marquette has consistently been finding Trump with a better job approval than basically any other Wisconsin poll.

And yet:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1217518243461595141?s=20

This is the best number in favor of impeachement in Wisconsin so far by Marquette.

Proof 854 that Joe Biden is the safest bet to get rid of the Trump clown.

Lately I have had difficulty envisioning Elizabeth Warren coming out to do the coin toss or first pitch, you know? I don't know if she's able to be the ceremonial figurehead for this country. It's sort of the same with Bernie though but for him, it's not nearly as bad. These people are very frail.

Wisconsin definitely hasnt budged much on Trump since he became president. He was at 48/52 in the 2018 exit polls and that's where Marquette has continued to find him(give or take a point or two) for most of 2019.

Support for removal is -5

Tracks with it being neck and neck nationally

Somewhat irrelevant though.

Impeachment support in WI will inevitably go down from 47% once Trump gets justifiably acquitted.

Note that Trump outperformed 2016 Wisconsin polling significantly. There's already the possibility that he'd win it against Biden if it was held today, and there's also the possibility that his numbers will also go up! I can see a Trump margin of victory of maybe around 4% or even a bit more if all goes well.

I'm getting kind of sick of this mindset.

Yes, swing state polling was off in 2016. But that does not mean swing state polling is off now. And I should note Marquette nailed the governors race in 2018.

Its also quite possible Trump's support falls by then

You may end up very disappointed if Trump overperforms again.

WI is a Toss-Up. News at 11.

WI is lean R

😖😖😖😖

Hard for u to believe Trump will lose WI, and and PA to Bernie and Bennet or Biden and Sally Yates

He has trailed in Fox polls too

If I had to guess, this is a state where the whole Iran situation is really hurting Trump. He has no one to blame but himself for trailing in what is obviously a must-win state for him.

There is zero evidence from this poll that Iran has hurt him

His approvals are up since the strike against QS according to this poll

Exactly for Warren and Buttigieg, but it's lean D for Biden and tilt D for Sanders.  And either Uncle Joe or Bernie is going to be the nominee.

It's lean R against all dems. He is within the MOE in all of these polls and polls notoriously undercount his support.

Exactly. If anything he got a small bump from the Iran thing. His approval is stabilizing around 44-45%. I could see it going up to 46-47% possibly this year with a little more consolidation from independents.

what a spin. real numbers are biden -4, bernie and warren at least +3.

I could even see it going up to a little past 50%! Don't be too pessimistic SN2903.

This is primarily due to improper weighting by the pollsters in 2016.  Do you think pollsters never learn or adjust their models?  For some pollsters this might be true, but not for the good ones (of which Marquette is certainly one).  Just because this happened in 2016 does not mean it's guaranteed to happen in 2020; you're making the same mistake that Democrats did by assuming that what was true in 2012 would also be true in 2016.

Why would the polls notoriously undercount his support now?  This is not 2016.

This poll is weird. Biden/Trump duel numbers are really bad for Trump but approval rate numbers are great for Trump.

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Nitpick all you want but you can't deny that things look much better for Trump in January 2020 than they did in January 2016.

And let's see how polling is by late October before we declare Wisconsin to be Lean D for Joe or Bernie, even if these Marquette numbers are accurate they will undoubtedly change over the course of the campaign. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a rerun of the 1968 disaster at Milwaukee this year!

There are still many Trump supporters who are shy because of the unjustified vitriol against them, or who simply don't respond to phone polls.

Despite being similar ideologically similar I would say Warren is perceived as being more of a elitist type candidate than Sanders is. Perceptions matter much more than actual policy unfortunately.

Welcome to Atlas! Do your best to live up to my example.

Trump being underestimated in 2016 doesn't mean he will be in 2020. Turnout patterns, the strength of a campaigns GOTV operation and polling methodology change each election and are all responsible for systematic polling errors. If you don't believe me just look at the difference from 2012 to 2016 where state polls went from underestimating Obama to overestimating Clinton 4 years later or how UK polls underestimated the Tories lead in 2015 and 2019 while overestimating it in 2017. 

Nice first posts.  Welcome to the forum!

Thanks!

I am confident that the first two factors you mentioned will be better for us, and the third factor quite possibly could still be better for us. Marquette was right on in 2018 but Trump is a much stronger candidate than Leah Vukmir and Scott Walker.

O I def think he could hit  50% this year in the average I just want to see a 46 47% average first :)

No I'm not because Obama was a far better candidate than Hillary and the democratic candidates in 2020 are even weaker than Hillary to be honest. Also in 2016 democrats didn't have an incumbent running. Biden sounded terrible last night and anyone besides Biden apologists could see that. Even Morning Joe this morning said the debate was boring and democrats need to step up their game.

This is some much needed good news to help me have some cautious optimism for Biden as the nominee.

Polls could be underestimating Trump's support by even more than 2016 right now.

Once Americans start paying attention more Biden will do bad if he is the nominee. He is a really awful candidate.

1. In 2016 you had a decent sized drop off with African American turnout which helped Trump win. Further many voters who did not like wither Hillary or Trump voted third party which allowed Trump to get in with a small plurality of the vote. In his loss Scott Walker got a higher % of the vote than Trump did in 2016. Unlike in 2016 where Democrats did not focus as much time as the needed to on the Midwest you are going to see a strong full fledged GOTV effort in WI this year which should help with Turnout. On top of this your going to see a strong anyone but Trump movement going on which will help drive 2016 third party voters to vote for the Dem candidate.

2.I will concede that many of Trumps supporters from last time will be enthusiastic to go out and vote for him this time but unless he is going to expand his base than it's going to be extremely difficult for him to win re-election this time.

3. Scott Walker has won a higher % of the vote than Trump got in 2016 in every statewide  general election he has been in so I fail to see how Trump is a better candidate than Walker is.

Sure they could be or they could even be overestimating his support now. Their simply is no conclusive proof that demonstrates how accurate the polls are right now.

That's fair I just honestly think with how weak Biden and Bernie are sounding that Trump could easily win by more than 2016. I def think it could happen.

What I expected all along. WI is a pure tossup, unlike MI (lean D) and PA (tilt D). If Biden or any Dem nominee is ahead by 4 in polls on Halloween, I'll be nervous but not in panic. I know WI polling was off in 2016 unlike the other Rust Belt states, but pollsters hopefully learned their lesson from that election. Marquette was accurate in 2018 and 2016 narratives aren't necessarily valid this time around.

Most important for Dems is building an insurance in the Sun Belt that losing WI doesn't lead to losing the election. AZ and FL should be obvious targets, followed by NC and GA. Maybe even TX, though if Trump struggles in TX 8 or 9 months from now, he's likely done.

A tossup remains a tossup. Thankfully, my vote will count!

I won't deny that it's definitely possible, and what I am most worried about with any Democrat. But Biden has more room to fall than the other candidates do and has been almost Trump-like in his ability to not be affected much by his gaffes or the skepticism directed at him. I also expect that the methodology of most polling firms will be more accurate this time compared to 2016. Marquette was very accurate in 2018, and they always have been one of the Badger State's better pollsters.

Nonetheless, Wisconsin is still a tossup, and is where the election will be won or lost.

If i had to guess, the Iran situation is actually helping him, and his approval rating is up since last poll. I wouldn't draw conclusions though from this poll. The last poll likely overestimated Trump. This seems more right, but it has a large difference between a +4 for Biden and a -3 for Warren.

Back in january 2016, there was still such a thing as #NeverTrump'ers, and the GOP wasn't united behind Trump. Now they are. That's the difference between the january poll from then and now. He wasn't the nominee yet, and the excellent pick of Pence wasn't made yet. Neither did Trump campaign in Wisconsin yet.