Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 09, 2020, 06:33:19 PM



Title: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 09, 2020, 06:33:19 PM


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on January 09, 2020, 06:35:39 PM
These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer - all by over five points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Wisconsin_gubernatorial_election#Polling_2

also note that Walker was behind in many of polls only to come close in the end

and do I even need to bring up Trump's massive overperformance in Wisconsin when he won the first time?


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 09, 2020, 06:38:39 PM
These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Matty on January 09, 2020, 06:43:18 PM
WI is a toss up in 2020

Nothing in this poll indicates otherwise

You have to be a total hack to think trump is more vulnerable in WI now than he was in 2016


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on January 09, 2020, 06:44:15 PM
These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/wisconsin

Trump was at 48% approval with Wisconsin's 2018 electorate. Given that Trump supporters will have even higher turnout in a Presidential year, it's very easy to picture Trump at over 50% in Wisconsin.

I'd expect Trump's support in the rurals to be even higher AND his support in the WOW suburbs to be higher as well, relative to 2016.

And remember...Hagedorn beat Neubauer despite them trying really hard to take him down.

All in all, things are looking pretty rosy for Trump. In the same way that you can look at old 2016 polls and scoff, you can look at these old polls and laugh at how so many of them massively underestimated his final numbers.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Frenchrepublican on January 09, 2020, 06:46:33 PM
Crazy that Fox News polls are the by far the worse for Trump


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 09, 2020, 06:49:08 PM
These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/wisconsin

Trump was at 48% approval with Wisconsin's 2018 electorate. Given that Trump supporters will have even higher turnout in a Presidential year, it's very easy to picture Trump at over 50% in Wisconsin.

I'd expect Trump's support in the rurals to be even higher AND his support in the WOW suburbs to be higher as well, relative to 2016.

And remember...Hagedorn beat Neubauer despite them trying really hard to take him down.

All in all, things are looking pretty rosy for Trump. In the same way that you can look at old 2016 polls and scoff, you can look at these old polls and laugh at how so many of them massively underestimated his final numbers.
I like you’re assumptions that only Trump will see a base increase relative to 2018 and that he will do better in the suburbs because well you say so. Real serious analysis 👍


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on January 09, 2020, 06:52:08 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on January 09, 2020, 06:53:28 PM
That's at least somewhat reassuring. The election will be won or lost here. I hope Democrats' leads can remain similar (or even better) than this throughout the general election.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Frenchrepublican on January 09, 2020, 06:58:24 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 09, 2020, 06:59:40 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Even the best pollsters miss occasionally.  Fox News polling is very solid.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on January 09, 2020, 07:04:17 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls
Fair, though I would add that almost everyone got those wrong.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Frenchrepublican on January 09, 2020, 07:04:59 PM
These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/wisconsin

Trump was at 48% approval with Wisconsin's 2018 electorate. Given that Trump supporters will have even higher turnout in a Presidential year, it's very easy to picture Trump at over 50% in Wisconsin.

I'd expect Trump's support in the rurals to be even higher AND his support in the WOW suburbs to be higher as well, relative to 2016.

And remember...Hagedorn beat Neubauer despite them trying really hard to take him down.

All in all, things are looking pretty rosy for Trump. In the same way that you can look at old 2016 polls and scoff, you can look at these old polls and laugh at how so many of them massively underestimated his final numbers.
I like you’re assumptions that only Trump will see a base increase relative to 2018 and that he will do better in the suburbs because well you say so. Real serious analysis 👍

Well, if we believe MuLaw Polls (historically far more accurate and done by people who actually know this state) Trump is now more popular in WOW counties than the share of the vote he received here four years ago. According to them Trump had last month a 57% approval in southeastern WI outside of  Milwaukee while he received only 54% of the vote in 2016 in this area, that’s why he will also certainly improve upon his 2016 margins in WOW counties


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Cinemark on January 09, 2020, 07:05:29 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Not to be rude, but you have a habit of trying to discredit pollsters when their numbers aren't great for Trump. Its pretty transparent at this point.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Frenchrepublican on January 09, 2020, 07:12:33 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Not to be rude, but you have a habit of trying to discredit pollsters when their numbers aren't great for Trump. Its pretty transparent at this point.

No, not particularly. I mean, look at the Glengariff poll from yesterday, their numbers are not great for Trump and I’m not trying to discredit them, the problem with Fox News polls is that you have a pattern as their polls always look very bad for Trump, and it’s not just their statewide polls but also their national polls. Now, maybe Fox News polls are accurate and Trump will lose the PV by a high single-digit margin and will lose WI by 5, still as of now I’m just a bit sceptic about a such idea, Trump had a 48/50 approval rate in WI per 2018 exit polls and MuLaw polls tend to show a far closer race in WI than Fox News ones and when you look at the record of both pollsters it’s clear that MuLaw ones are more trustable


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on January 09, 2020, 07:27:11 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January-August_2016_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

and well well well, what do we have here?

March 28-30, 2016: FOX News Wisconsin Poll

Hillary 49%
Trump: 35%

Hillary+14 in March 2016

in contrast to....Biden+5 in January 2020? LOL.

Also if you go the "it's different this time because Trump is an incumbent" route, then take a look at how undecideds often broke to Obama in 2012, and how many broke to Scott Walker relative to some polls in 2018

Frankly Fox News polls lost all their credibility with their IN-Sen 2018 and MO-Sen 2018 polls

Not to be rude, but you have a habit of trying to discredit pollsters when their numbers aren't great for Trump. Its pretty transparent at this point.

It's a well established fact that FOX polls underestimate GOP performance in states that aren't Nevada.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 09, 2020, 08:14:37 PM
Trump not being able to crack 42% should be more alarming for the GOP.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 09, 2020, 08:22:00 PM
So, much for Trump's strategy in winning WI, Walker needed to win in order to Trump to win reelection,  and Walker failed


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: ProudModerate2 on January 09, 2020, 08:46:15 PM
Some pro-trump (blue avatars) in this thread ...


()


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on January 09, 2020, 08:48:39 PM
Some pro-trump (blue avatars) in this thread ...


()

I'm doing a home workout right now so I am a bit sweaty, yeah.

I don't think I'll break a sweat about Trump's re-election chances even *once* this year though. He is practically a lock in for re-election.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on January 09, 2020, 09:11:34 PM
Some pro-trump (blue avatars) in this thread ...


()

I'm doing a home workout right now so I am a bit sweaty, yeah.

I don't think I'll break a sweat about Trump's re-election chances even *once* this year though. He is practically a lock in for re-election.
Do you realize how much everyone here will rip on you if he loses?


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on January 09, 2020, 09:55:41 PM
Do you realize how much everyone here will rip on you if he loses?

I've probably the most ripped on Atlas user of BOTH 2018 and 2019, despite being more accurate in my predictions than many on here.

Internet hatred affects me as much as how a light drizzle affects an ocean.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: swords on January 09, 2020, 10:31:40 PM
Do you realize how much everyone here will rip on you if he loses?

I've probably the most ripped on Atlas user of BOTH 2018 and 2019, despite being more accurate in my predictions than many on here.

Internet hatred affects me as much as how a light drizzle affects an ocean.

I remember your 2018 prediction was pretty awful. did u delete?


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on January 09, 2020, 10:36:31 PM

I remember your 2018 prediction was pretty awful. did u delete?

You remember incorrectly, I predicted 225D-210R but was screwed over by lazy douchenozzles like Dan Donovan who took their seats for granted. Much better than 'Blue Tsunami' predictors who were at around 250D or more!

I was more correct about Florida's Senate election, Indiana's senate election, and Missouri's senate election much more than the average Atlas user (they said Nelson would win by mid single digits and Donnelly and McCaskill would win in squakers; whereas I said Florida would be close and Donnelly and McCaskill were going down by decent margins).

Beto surprised me though, but at the same time I was more accurate about North Dakota and Tennessee.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 09, 2020, 10:52:21 PM
The only reason why Trunp won WI, was due to Walker who ran in a primary, Teump isnt gonna win the Prez, if he doesnt win WI


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: swords on January 09, 2020, 10:54:32 PM

I remember your 2018 prediction was pretty awful. did u delete?

You remember incorrectly, I predicted 225D-210R but was screwed over by lazy douchenozzles like Dan Donovan who took their seats for granted. Much better than 'Blue Tsunami' predictors who were at around 250D or more!

I was more correct about Florida's Senate election, Indiana's senate election, and Missouri's senate election much more than the average Atlas user (they said Nelson would win by mid single digits and Donnelly and McCaskill would win in squakers; whereas I said Florida would be close and Donnelly and McCaskill were going down by decent margins).

Beto surprised me though, but at the same time I was more accurate about North Dakota and Tennessee.

oh... My Apologies to you.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Hammy on January 09, 2020, 10:57:08 PM
Some pro-trump (blue avatars) in this thread ...


()

I'm doing a home workout right now so I am a bit sweaty, yeah.

I don't think I'll break a sweat about Trump's re-election chances even *once* this year though. He is practically a lock in for re-election.
Do you realize how much everyone here will rip on you if he loses?

I doubt he'll stick around for it if Trump loses.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: EliteLX on January 09, 2020, 11:34:51 PM
Trump not being able to crack 42% should be more alarming for the GOP.

He was at 35% vs Hillary in March of last election year.. and all indicators are pointing to stable if not warming numbers for him in many areas in WI.

This state will be seriously competitive in 2020, can't tell if he can squeeze out another razer thin win or not though.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Sir Mohamed on January 10, 2020, 03:17:33 AM
Tossup/tilt D. These numbers could be from September or October 2016, so I wouldn't read too much into it 10 months out.

WI is definitely the toughest of the 3 Rust Belt states to flip back. AZ, FL and NC may allow Dems to compensate a narrow loss in WI and still win the election.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: tagimaucia on January 10, 2020, 03:45:59 AM
I don’t think comparably early trial heat polls for an open election with two new candidates are very analogous to polls where an incumbent is running for re-election.  Open election polls are always more swingy as the two candidates try to define themselves, while an incumbent’s popularity is a lot more  locked in at this point, especially in these more polarized times. If you go look at Romney-Obama polls from say, January 2012, in key swing states on RealClearPolitics— in aggregate they look pretty damn similar to what the results actually ended up being.

Anyway, if you believe civiqs, at least in terms of movement ( https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&home_state=Wisconsin ), Trump is pretty much in the same place where he was on Election Day 2018 today, when his net approval was -4 in the Wisconsin exit polls. Clearly Wisconsin is gonna be really close.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Sir Mohamed on January 10, 2020, 03:50:18 AM
The only reason why Trunp won WI, was due to Walker who ran in a primary, Teump isnt gonna win the Prez, if he doesnt win WI

Dude, what are you talking about? Walker flopped badly in his 2016 campaign and dropped out long before actual voting in primaries begun. And a reminder: Trump lost the WI GOP primary in April to Ted Cruz.

There are 3 main reasons Trump narrowly carried WI in 2016: 1st, turnout in metro areas, especially among AAs, was down, costing HRC thousands of votes. 2nd, HRC took the state for granted and didn't campaign there in the final weeks. And 3rd, like other Rust Belt states, WI is affected by decades of job losses as a result of globalization. This created a lot of frustration with the system among WWCs and Trump was their perfect Molotov cocktail at Washington DC.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: ElectionsGuy on January 10, 2020, 04:13:08 AM
Trump not being able to crack 42% should be more alarming for the GOP.

I remember when Braun didn't even crack 40% in a Fox News poll in 2018 a week before the election and most actually believed it and yet this should be alarming? Especially when Wisconsin polls in 2016 (the few pollsters that actually polled Wisconsin because very few actually considered it a contested state) showed Trump at high 30's low 40's even during the final weeks.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: crazy jimmie on January 10, 2020, 05:16:00 AM
I doubt Biden or any Democrat wins Wisconsin by 5.

More likely Trump wins Wisconsin by 5.

Most likely its within 2 points


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Pericles on January 10, 2020, 05:23:55 AM
Trump being stuck in the 41-42% range seems bad for him, and the different margins are just higher numbers of undecideds not higher Trump percentages. Undecideds could go for Trump of course, but a strong possibility is that undecideds end up breaking for the Dem nominee this time (especially if they are voters who have already decided they dislike Trump but at this stage are more selective with which primary candidates they like).


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 10, 2020, 06:25:28 AM
The only reason why Trunp won WI, was due to Walker who ran in a primary, Teump isnt gonna win the Prez, if he doesnt win WI

Dude, what are you talking about? Walker flopped badly in his 2016 campaign and dropped out long before actual voting in primaries begun. And a reminder: Trump lost the WI GOP primary in April to Ted Cruz.

There are 3 main reasons Trump narrowly carried WI in 2016: 1st, turnout in metro areas, especially among AAs, was down, costing HRC thousands of votes. 2nd, HRC took the state for granted and didn't campaign there in the final weeks. And 3rd, like other Rust Belt states, WI is affected by decades of job losses as a result of globalization. This created a lot of frustration with the system among WWCs and Trump was their perfect Molotov cocktail at Washington DC.

I was taking about the vouchers that Walker was so popular instilituting when he was Gov of WI and the Charter schools have been a success story in WI as well as all over the country instead of kids going to Catholic or private schools. Just like online schools are taking over university education. Also, Kasich and Walker were reelected due to medicaid expansion


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: tagimaucia on January 10, 2020, 07:12:12 AM
Whether you buy it or not, the argument about candidates polling in the low 40s being in bad shape is typically made specifically about incumbents, so Braun doesn’t really make sense as a counter-example, though there’s no doubt the polls in Indiana were generally very bad. The point being that a 42% or so figure for a candidate that is already serving and has a 3+ year track record is a lot more damning than for someone who is looking to enter that office.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Sir Mohamed on January 10, 2020, 10:06:16 AM
Whether you buy it or not, the argument about candidates polling in the low 40s being in bad shape is typically made specifically about incumbents, so Braun doesn’t really make sense as a counter-example, though there’s no doubt the polls in Indiana were generally very bad. The point being that a 42% or so figure for a candidate that is already serving and has a 3+ year track record is a lot more damning than for someone who is looking to enter that office.

I agree with this, but Mr. Trump is far from being done in WI, even if this poll is accurate and reflects the current state of the race; 10 months out with no determined Dem challenger. If Trump starts doing more rallies and TV ads starting on Labor Day, his support in polls may increase to ~45%, trailing the Dem Dem nominee within the MoE. This can easily lead to Trump win by 1-2%.

Also, no Dem candidate in this poll clears 50%, which is almost always a sign nothing can be taken for granted.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 10, 2020, 11:03:10 AM
Dems are going after the state legislatures in the midwest to turn them from R to D and WI is ground zero for that.  Trump only won WI, due to Johnson and Stein pulling 4 percent


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Pericles on January 10, 2020, 11:07:47 AM
Whether you buy it or not, the argument about candidates polling in the low 40s being in bad shape is typically made specifically about incumbents, so Braun doesn’t really make sense as a counter-example, though there’s no doubt the polls in Indiana were generally very bad. The point being that a 42% or so figure for a candidate that is already serving and has a 3+ year track record is a lot more damning than for someone who is looking to enter that office.

That he's in the same range in every matchup which seems like a bad sign for him.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: SN2903 on January 10, 2020, 11:37:06 AM
Junk. Trump is up in Wisconsin . As French stated Fox lost credibility after 2018 polls.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 10, 2020, 11:38:56 AM

You do realize Johnsin and Stein took 3% away from Hilary in Pa, WI and MI?


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Xing on January 10, 2020, 11:42:14 AM
WI will probably end up siding with the winner of the election either way. While a decent poll for Democrats, clearly it's not enough of a lead to inspire confidence, though no one should be calling WI for Trump with much confidence, either.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: MT Treasurer on January 10, 2020, 12:38:47 PM
Somehow I have a hard time squaring this and the Glengariff poll with the Mason-Dixon polls. No Democrat is losing FL and GA by double digits (or close to it) while flipping MI/WI in the same election (although it should be noted that the Mason-Dixon polls were conducted before the airstrike).


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 10, 2020, 12:38:53 PM
Junk. Trump is up in Wisconsin . As French stated Fox lost credibility after 2018 polls.

Marquette Law, which is the gold standard for Wisconsin, shows essentially a tossup in the state -- which I think is a pretty good description for the current situation.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on January 10, 2020, 12:55:13 PM
Bernie will annihilate Trump in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 10, 2020, 01:03:49 PM
Are these going to be put into the database? Or no because it doesn't make the blue avs happy?


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: MT Treasurer on January 10, 2020, 01:34:33 PM
Are these going to be put into the database? Or no because it doesn't make the blue avs happy?

Apparently I’m the only one adding polls which don’t show Trump ahead to the database. :P I’ll do it later if they’re still not added by then.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 10, 2020, 01:38:28 PM
Trump isnt winning Wiz anyways, itasca D state


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Kempros on January 11, 2020, 02:29:44 AM
Taking polls from various states, it appears like the PVIs have reverted back to 08' levels.
Trump very strong in the traditional R states that are supposed to be battleground, and weak in the rust belt?


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on January 11, 2020, 04:26:23 AM
Hmm, good for the Democrats but not bad either for Trump. Neither are overperforming. Sanders and Biden are luckily the best fits to win Wisconsin. We will see how the race evolves. It's still a long time, and I expect Trump voters come home near the end.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: libertpaulian on January 11, 2020, 10:37:42 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if WI goes red but a state like AZ goes blue.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: DrScholl on January 11, 2020, 10:43:43 AM
Trump won the state by a plurality last time. That is important to remember.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: libertpaulian on January 11, 2020, 11:03:03 AM
Interesting that Midwestern Pete does the worst among the bunch.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on January 16, 2020, 11:43:29 AM
These probably all decently underestimate Trump in the same way that in 2018, FOX Polls decently underestimated Braun, Hawley, and Cramer.
Or a unpopular president is in serious trouble and f losing a state he won by less than 1%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/wisconsin

Trump was at 48% approval with Wisconsin's 2018 electorate. Given that Trump supporters will have even higher turnout in a Presidential year, it's very easy to picture Trump at over 50% in Wisconsin.

I'd expect Trump's support in the rurals to be even higher AND his support in the WOW suburbs to be higher as well, relative to 2016.

And remember...Hagedorn beat Neubauer despite them trying really hard to take him down.

All in all, things are looking pretty rosy for Trump. In the same way that you can look at old 2016 polls and scoff, you can look at these old polls and laugh at how so many of them massively underestimated his final numbers.

LOL, no. What makes you think that Trump will somehow improve in Milwaukee suburbs while collapsing in other suburbs across America? Man, the obsession with WI being lean R in this election is getting tiring!


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: SN2903 on January 16, 2020, 03:34:57 PM
The only reason why Trunp won WI, was due to Walker who ran in a primary, Teump isnt gonna win the Prez, if he doesnt win WI
Nonsense. Trump won WI because he was a better candidate than Hillary.


Title: Re: Fox News WI poll: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +2, Pete +1
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 16, 2020, 04:04:39 PM
The only reason why Trunp won WI, was due to Walker who ran in a primary, Teump isnt gonna win the Prez, if he doesnt win WI
Nonsense. Trump won WI because he was a better candidate than Hillary.

Yes, he was, but Trump is the ethically challenged one this time, outside Crts are in contradiction with the R Justice Dept, as the crime that Trrump committed. Just like D Justice Dept was in contradiction in 1999 with Crts as the crime Bill Clinton committed.  But, Dems had witnesses but Trunp blocked all testimony

Crts already ruled Trump can be indicted while in office for Bribery