Talk Elections

Biden: 50% (+7)
Trump: 43%

Bloomberg: 47% (+6)
Trump: 41%

Sanders: 49% (+4)
Trump: 45%

Warren: 46% (+2)
Trump: 44%

Buttigieg: 45% (+2)
Trump: 43%

https://www.scribd.com/document/442183414/January-2020-Statewide-Survey (https://www.scribd.com/document/442183414/January-2020-Statewide-Survey)

I think we need to reassess Bloomberg's electability.

Would've liked to see them poll the primary too.

Not bad #s for Trump at all at this point. Most of the country doesn't know who these democrats are and once Trump exposes them their #s will go down even more.

I hate to burst your bubble, but it's highly unlikely Trump holds your state this year.

Change since last poll




Trump v. Biden (Trump +5)
Trump v. Sanders (Trump +8)
Trump v. Warren (Trump +2)

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders both are very, very famous people. Warren less so, but is one of the most prominent Senators. Buttigieg I'll give you.

Not bad, especially for Bloomberg. Lean D for now. Not that it means much 10 months out.

Not a great poll for Trump, but considering how MI polls tend to suck we should take it with a grain of salt

This could literally be a poll from October, 2016.  Democrats need to start polling a three-way race with former Democrat Lincoln Chafee, who is the Libertarian candidate this year.  Last Presidential election, Gary Johnson took 3.6% of the vote in Michigan. 

Bloomberg has made a huge ad buy.  

Approval 47-49, But match-ups favor Democrats opposite to the way that the go in Arizona and Iowa. Different pollster, of course.

.
But you said Sanders was gonna lose to Trump in MI and John James was gonna beat Peters

Highly doubt Chafee gets the Libertarian nomination. Adam Kokesh is much more likely.

Believable numbers. Maybe too generous for the Dems but the Dems have definitely the edge here. It's their state to lose right now.

Are the numbers in parentheses the previous results, or the net change?

Net Change

A colleague theorized just the other day that Bloomberg's relentless anti-Trump ad campaigns nationwide are helping his general election numbers more than his primary numbers, and this poll appears to support that thinking.

Perhaps Bloomberg's strategy is to build an electability narrative for himself nationwide while the other candidates focus solely on the first four states, and then use that manufactured narrative to blunt Biden (likely already weakened by a Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg victory narrative out if IA and NH) come Super Tuesday.

Doesn’t factor in Reverse Coattails from UT John James.

Imagine actually believing that Trump would lose MI by 7 and simultaneously win GA by 7. How stupid are the people of Atlas?!

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1215252385452392449

Education sample in poll is off, is 47% college, may make difference in state like MI where college and non-college voters vote differently.

I dont agree. The 2018 exit poll had 51% of Michigan voters having a degree. An associates degree is a college degree. I think, if anything, the polls phrasing is the issue.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/michigan

The 2016 exit polls have been recognised to be off in education, the 2018 ones corrected for that.

Party like it's 2012! Trends aren't only fake, they're going to reverse themselves!

way too early to make that claim

It is way too early to make 99.9% of the claims that you make, but that has never stopped you.

I state my opinion that doesn't mean they are predictions I'm not making any real predictions until a week before the election

we will see what the numbers are in late October

You said the samething in 2018, and you stated John James was gonna beat Stabenow,  what has changed?

Greenfield and JD Scholten are raising money like crazy, more so than Sara Gideon. I rate IA as a better pickup than ME Senate

Dems wins MI around 50/48, results would be the same no matter which candidate it was.

Perhaps. But Michigan was the closest state in 2016 and if this poll is accurate, especially considering the surprisingly high approval-disapproval ratings in it, suggests that Trump is guaranteed to do worse in the country as a whole than in 2016. Michigan is easily the first  Trump state to flip and this poll may suggest that it flipping in 2016 was a fluke due to a perfect storm for Trump, who only barely flipped it.

This poll should also probably grant Gary Peters some reassurance.

Of course, it is indeed early, we'll see what happens. But Democrats aren't going to take this state for granted like in 2016, and even though it may never vote for Democrats by double digits ever again, your state isn't as (non-Atlas) red as you think it is.

Or... the poll is crap. Trump's approval in this state poll is -2, yet he's down 7 against Biden. His national approval right now is -7 or -8. If Michigan's approval of Trump is 5 to 6 points right of the national numbers, and he's down 7 here, is he down 12 or 13 points nationally? Complete nonsense, especially when his favorability in 2016 was something like 38/60 and he lost by only 2 nationally.

The polls are missing something, Trump will not be polling 5% behind his approval ratings by election day, and most 2018 exit polls actually showed Republican candidates polling ahead of Trump's approval. Call me a poll truther or whatever, I just see things that don't make sense.


This tired analysis again...


No it shouldn't, he's underperforming Biden by 3 points, but then again there are more undecideds in that race because it's a weird case where the incumbent and the challenger are roughly equally known.


They probably won't, but it's essential to mention the way they took it for granted in 2016 was by being overconfident in polls showing Democrats leading by mid to upper single digits without being over 50%, and that's exactly what this poll is. Therefore they decided to ExPaNd ThE mAp only to realize on election day Hillary leading with only 45-46% in most Midwest states didn't translate to a secure victory like they thought. Just some food for thought. If the Democrats learned from 2016 they should treat all these states like they are pure toss-ups, even when polls show them comfortably ahead.

Glengariff tends to be slightly favorable to Democrats, but they were still pretty accurate with the Michigan Governor's race in 2018. That's why I'm not counting out this poll entirely.

You are right though, the Trump approval rating versus his performance in the state is also odd for the reason you described. There's at least something off with that.

mIcHiGaN wIlL vOtE tO tHe rIgHt oF wIsCoNsIn!!!!

These still haven't been entered into the database UwU

Biden and Sanders are well known. I don't believe the Iran mess will affect the polls much one way or the other; people have pretty much made up their minds between a Democrat and Trump.

I find it interesting that Biden leads Trump by 7, while Sanders leads Trump by just 4, in a state relatively less favorable to "free trade".

Biden up by 7 is a good sign. Trump polls low ("the elephant in the room"), but even if Biden wins it in Nov. by just 1, that's enough. I'm not as comfortable with Sanders' 4-point lead.

I will give a mathematical example, which should be right up your alley given your username. It is a simplified example so that the math doesn't get overly complicated, using hypothetical poll #s to illustrate the point that Sanders could well be more "electable" and actually do better than Biden even if Biden polls 3 points better than Bernie and even if a poll having him doing 3 points better is completely accurate.

The point is not necessarily that Sanders is more electable (maybe he is, maybe he isn't, my point is not to take any firm position on that), the point is just that you can't conclude too much from these poll comparisons, because they ignore some crucial factors (namely the influence of turnout).



Let's say a poll has Biden +1 and Bernie -2 against Trump (so Biden is nominally 3 points stronger in terms of electability).

Underneath the hood, you have the following #s leading to these toplines:


Biden:
wins young voters 70-30%
loses old voters 42%-58%

Bernie:
wins young voters 75%-25%
loses old voters 38%-62%

However, the crucial assumption made by the poll is that in both cases, regardless of who the candidate is, that the same electorate will turn out to vote. In both cases, the assumption is that 70% of the electorate will be made up by old voters, and 30% by young voters.

If you multiply out those numbers by the 70-30 vote share (old-young) split, you end up with:

Biden 50.4% - Trump 49.6% (Biden ~ +1)

and Trump 50.9% - Bernie 49.1% (Trump ~ +2)



However, in reality the vote share of young vs old voters is not invariant to who the candidates are. If Biden is the nominee, it is plausible that young voters (and also some other groups not taken into account in this simplified example) may be less enthusiastic and less likely to vote than they would be if Bernie were the nominee.

For example, suppose that with Biden, young voter turnout were less, such that 72% of the electorate were old and 28% young, whereas with Bernie, young voter turnout were higher, such that 67% of the electorate were old and 33% young.


Multiply out the support #s by the turnout, and you get the following:


Biden:

70% support from young voters multiplied by 28% vote share + 42% support from old voters multiplied by 72% vote share = 49.84% total support (Trump gets the remaining 50.16%).


Bernie:

75% support from young voters multiplied by 33% vote share + 38% support from old voters multiplied by 67% vote share = 50.21% support (Trump gets the remaining 49.79%).


So in this case case, despite the poll being entirely accurate in terms of the % support that both Bernie and Biden get, and despite Biden doing 3 points better than Bernie in the poll's matchup against Trump, in reality Biden ends up losing and Bernie ends up winning because of turnout differences that are not taken into account by the poll, since the poll (incorrectly) questions the same voters regardless of who is the candidate, thereby assuming away any variation in turnout/enthusiasm between candidates.

Thank you. As I pointed out in another thread, you have made a persuasive case for a Sanders vote being viable.

Peter's is running ads a year before the election that tells me everything. Latest poll has 16% undecided in that race ! 16! He is only at 44% which is awful for an incumbent. It's clear James has a slight edge right now and the presidential race looks like a dead heat in MI. I agree with a previous poster there is no way in hell Trump is down 7 to Biden if his approval is only -2 in the state. Michigan polls consistently are too D friendly.  At the very best Biden may be up a point or two in MI right now that's it.

The manufacturing sector of the economy is already in a recession and has been for quite some time now. Doubt Trump wins the state again

That wasn't a final prediction. It was an opinion at the time. It's ridiculous to make real predictions until at least 1-2 weeks before the election. My final prediction was I thought James would win because I thought he had a lot of momentum the last 2 weeks. I underestimated the fact that the RNC didn't fund him at all and that 2018 was a stronger D year than I thought it would be. Despite that he came within 6 pts of a 20 year incumbent and in 2020 I think he has a better than 50/50 chance of winning

Even if he doesn't he can easily still win re-election. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona will decide it. I could see Trump coming really close in MI and losing like 51 to 49 while James eeks out a win. I think James will run 2-3 pts better than Trump in MI.

I think Michigan is a 50 50 race in 2020 at the presidential level. It could go either way. I actually am starting to think Bernie may have a better chance in MI than Biden, but Bernie would be weaker than Joe in WI and PA. I think WI and PA are still tilt R at this point.

You keep saying that but Bernie consistently leads Biden in Fox polls and Gary Johnson took 3 percent last time

Any one of us could be wrong, and probably will be. In 2018, I predicted Stabenow would run ahead of Whitmer in MI. I was wrong.

As of right now I think MI is Tilt D; Bernie and Biden probably would each beat Trump 50-49, and Peters would beat James 50-48. But a lot can happen between now and November.

Lincoln Chafee is gonna be on the ballot, Bernie Bros can be the Kingmakers like last time when they voted for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.  The samething can happen if Bernie doesn't win. But Bernie is getting more union support

I think James is going to win. He's already out raising Peters and is still building his name recognition.  The presidential could go either way. I think James runs 2-3 pts better than Trump. James is gonna do well in Oakland which should put him across the finish line if he wins Macomb by a decent margin.

James is losing to Peter's 44-40.  The only black that is gonna win statewide office is Ben Jealous if he runs for Gov again in 2022 in MD, and he should, because Hogan was too popular in 2018

16% undecided in that poll. 44% is an atrocious # for an incumbent.

But Mr. Trump's 43% give him a good chance to win MI. Lol.

? His approval is only -2 in Michigan. He's at 47% approval.