Talk Elections

Trump 48, Buttigieg 47

Trump 49, Biden 46

Trump 49, Sanders 44

Trump 49, Warren 44

Trump approval = 48/48

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democratic-unity-will-determine-trumps-fate/

Strong lean R.

Iowans really seem to like Pete.

Trump's approval in this poll is 48/48, which is somewhat higher than other recent Iowa polls.

In before Tender Bradson tells us this is why we need to pick Pete

Given how polling in IA has been the past several cycles, Trump is probably further ahead here than this.

Likely R, and definitely not more likely to flip than FL/GA.

Really weird that they polled the Senate race in AZ but apparently not in IA. I wonder why.

I’m sure they did poll Iowa Senate. They just didn’t get a result they were happy to release.

Without something to back it up, I really doubt that.  They've historically released results that were very good or very bad for either party.

Sadly, but I was wrong. Likely R

I think we all know why.

Yeah, Ernst is likely up by double digits

For once we agree on a electoral issue

Bernie can win OH but lose IA

Putrid Pathetic Polling (PPP!) needs to get JUNKED.

They also didn't release a result for the Democratic primary. Care to explain that too?

The guy is likely right, this poll is using a sample where dems and republicans are tied (35% each) while republicans have generally a small advantage in Iowa. Among the people who voted in 2016 you have 42% Clinton voters and 48% Trump voters while Trump won Iowa 51/42, thus this poll is likely underestimating Trump a bit.

Good poll for Trump especially when you consider the source.

The "who did you vote for" sample is rarely, if ever, identical to the last election.

Not surprising that Pete performs best among all Dems against Trump.

Candidates have almost 100% name recognition there.

People need to start realizing that Pete is the most electable candidate.

I mean, Ernst, Trump, Grassley, and Reynolds all overperformed their polling by a significant margin, but sure, obviously Trump/Ernst winning IA decisively is just a wet dream of mine and totally what I want to happen ::)

Trump polls in Florida have been almost identical to this

How stupid are the yada yada yada

Pete is definitely the most electable candidate and the only one of the top tier candidates who can give Trump a run for his money.

Biden only appears to be the most electable. This will change after IA/NH.

Sanders has problems with educated voters which will likely lead to him losing the election.

New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2019-12-31 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920191231108)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/IowaJanuary2020.pdf)

Iowa is the only state where Pete is doing better than everyone else. In almost every other state and national poll, he is doing worse than both Biden/Bernie.

Pete has a critical weakness in black voters which are 30% of Georgia's electorate, 12% of PA's electorate, 13% of FL's electorate, 16% of Michigan's electorate, and over 20% of North Carolina's electorate. 2 senate seats are up for grabs in Georgia, and 1 is up for grabs in NC.

Part of Buttigieg's "Iowa or bust" strategy (the same approach which didn’t pay off for Bullock) is spending a ton of money there, especially on TV ads and staff. So the idea that this Iowa poll, in which he’s barely doing better than Biden and not even leading Trump, "proves" that he’s the most electable candidate is... of course... ridiculous.

Buttigieg is practically unknown nationally.
That will change if he wins Iowa caucuses.

The only relevant GE polls that we currently have are the polls from IA and NH where the voters are paying attention.

I still don't get it ...
Why does Iowa love Pete so much?
I just never would have foreseen the love for him from Iowa, of all places.
(PS: I don't have a problem with Pete. Just saying.)

Naw, GE polls of two lily-white states (both of which happen to be noncompetitive in a close election) don’t tell us much about the election as a whole, especially during a time when the Democratic campaign is in full swing in both states.

Yeah, I actually agree with MTTreasurer here rn. IA and NH GE polls are obviously going to be heavily skewed when you have a dozen Democratic candidates running round the clock ads there without any rebuttal right now, so it's hard to put them as indicating much.

That looks about right. Trump may even be doing better than this. However, I still don't think it will vote as strongly to the right of the nation as it did in 2016.

Sanders will pick Buttigieg or Bennet as a fusion ticket to help him with WWC voters

This poll is suspicious for a variety of reasons, but these are my non-conspiracy takes from the poll numbers:  1) Biden loses to Trump by 5-7% in a two-way race, and 8-10% in race with third-party candidates; 2) Buttigieg and Sanders showing Obama like numbers with 18-29 year-olds, and Buttigieg probably wins by 2-3% while Sanders is competitive against Trump; 3) Considering the Iowa poll and the Arizona poll together, Sanders should have a lead in Arizona if not for under-sampling 18-44 year-olds, Independent, and undecided/third-party voters. 

First, Biden’s numbers should scare Democrats.  He is losing Independents by 3 points, while 9% are undecided.  He is doing worse with older voters than I saw in previous polls of swing states, in addition to only winning a putrid 46% of voters in the 18-29 demographic.   Just from doing a little mathematics, the youth vote is under-represented by 4.5 to 5.5 percent from an average of 2004 to 2016 voter demographic turnout.   These numbers are very Clintonesque in light of the PPP under-sampling Trump voters by 3.15%, in addition to over-sampling Democrats by 2-4% while Republicans were under-sampled by 1%.  https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exit-polls.html (2004-2012 Exit Polls); https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/iowa/president (2016 Exit Poll).

Second, the under-sampling of the 18-29% demographic is so under-sampled that the Buttigieg and Sanders poll numbers are affected by a 2-3% swing while Biden is only helped by ¾ point swing in a head-to-head.  You also consider that Buttigieg is hurt by a lower percentage of 30-44 year-old voters of which he has a 52 to 44% lead against Trump, and Buttigieg starts to look like the re-incarnation of Barack Obama purely on his ability to bring out young, working class white voters.

Third, the Arizona poll shows Sanders with a more impressive lead among 18-29 year-old with a total of 72% to Trump’s 19%.  It’s the most impressive proportion of youth voter share since Obama in 2012, where the 18-29 voters demographic represented 26% of the electorate.  He does just as well as Clinton did with Women, and captures the same amount of voters ages 30-44 as Clinton.  Many voters in the two aforementioned demographics are “sure” to vote for Bernie, as 13% of 18-29 year-olds and 7% of 30-44 year-old are unsure.  In contrast, 17% and 13% of 18-29 and 30-44 year-olds are unsure about voting for Biden, and Trump is winning this demographic.

The final result in Arizona was Trump by 48-44.5 in 2016, because Clinton did pretty well with older voters, but did poorly with the white voters that supported the Obama coalition.  40% of Arizona voters Independent voters that are young or middle-aged that are Hispanic or White, and Bernie already wins 50%, with this demographic and takes more Republicans than Biden.   Bernie is supported by 63% of the participants that voted for a third-party or did not vote in the last election, and both him and buttigieg do better than Biden with this group in Iowa.   

538 is the 278 Blue wall Bernie needs Bennet to solidify it and thus the election goes to Dem

He looks like them and doesn't carry too much baggage like Joe Biden.  He looks like every old, moderate voter's grandson, and female, white voters probably find his homosexuality as a compelling reflection of sensitivity and care for female rights and perspective.  

Also, I've been saying for a while that Joe Biden is really disliked by young voters, and the two PPP polls have been illustrating this trend for some time.  If Buttigieg receives more name recognition, He probably does better than Biden.  

Ernst is extremely popular in the state and Greenfield is performing below expectations,  that's why no one wanted to challenge Ernst and they got Greenfield

Ernst was literally underwater in the last Morning Consult poll of Iowa. So... nah.

Dems are targeting KS instead of IA, and Greenfield is 6 points behind. But, Mike Franken has been a failed candidate