Talk Elections

Delhi assembly elections expected in Feb 2020
J&K assembly elections now that it has become an Union territory with Ladakh bifurcated will have to be sometime in mid 2020.
Bihar assembly elections most likely Oct 2020.  

No polls yet for Delhi assembly elections but the CW is that if it is going to be fought on local issues AAP will have the edge versus BJP having the edge if national issues predominate and Modi will play a key role.

https://www.latestly.com/india/politics/delhi-assembly-elections-results-2020-predictions-by-satta-bazaar-matka-players-bet-high-on-aap-returning-to-power-no-good-news-for-bjp-and-congress-1446308.html

The Delhi betting markets now currently have it at

AAP 54-56
BJP 11-13
INC  3-4

I suspect BJP will do better than that given that pre-election polls and betting markets tend to overestimate the incumbent if there is not large pro-incumbent wave which is more rare.

Delhi election date set.  Election will be on Feb 8th and counting will be on Feb 11th

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Delhi_Legislative_Assembly_election

First polls out shows AAP landslide

IANS-CVoter poll

           Seats     Vote share
AAP       59            53%
BJP         8             26%
INC         3              5%

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I suspect this poll exaggerates the AAP lead.  Also if these are the vote share numbers then the AAP most likely will win 67 (like in 2015) or even 70 out of 70 seats.  But the poll for sure show that AAP is in good position to win re-election

In many ways the BJP in Delhi now have the "INC disease"  The issue here is should BJP project a CM candidate as an alternative to Delhi AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal.  If you do not then you are just counting on Modi to fetch the votes which proved ineffective in the various 2019 assembly elections.  If you project a BJP CM candidate there are several BJP factions within Delhi and projecting one of the faction leaders as CM candidate would lead to revolt from other BJP faction leaders.  Bring in someone from the outside will anger local BJP cadres.  This situation is similar to the INC dilemma in many states.  Now BJP have the same problem and now BJP is now stuck and how to handle the CM candidate issue.

One reason why the BJP LS Delhi landslide in 2019 was not going to produce a BJP victory in the 2020 assembly elections was that even in 2019 LS elections post-election surveys shows that only 58% of the 2019 LS BJP vote planned to vote BJP in assembly elections.

CSDS Delhi post-election survey

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If you take the CSDS post-election survey and computed support for assembly elections it comes out to

AAP 34.0
BJP  33.5
INC  14.5

It seems that there was a further swing against the BJP

Of course I do not buy the Cvoter poll.  I doubt BJP will be lower than 35%.  In 2015 pre-election polls had it at BJP and AAP neck-to-neck so there was a lot of INC->AAP tactical voting.   This time around it is clear that AAP is ahead so some of the 2015 INC vote would flow back to INC from AAP.  I doubt INC will be below 10%  Likewise with CW view that AAP has the edge over BJP the vote for minor parties like BSP and other independents will most likely rise.  Even if polls show AAP well ahead I suspect it is something like

AAP  45%
BJP   35%
INC  10%

which should produce a AAP victory of around 50 seats or so. 

Some history of Delhi elections

Delhi has been an Union territory from the beginning

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Delhi had an assembly with a CM in the 1950s but the post was abolished in the late 1950s.  In 1993 the Delhi assembly was reestablished with the post of CM.

For LS elections Delhi tend to be a bellwether for Northern India and swings with the rest of Northern India and often India as a while. Delhi historically have been a 2 party system with INC vs BJP (or proto-BJP BJS).

1977 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0               30.15%

JNP             7                 7               68.15%

Anti-INC way carries JNP which is dominated by BJS in Delhi to a landslide victory just like in the rest of Northern India.


1980 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 6               50.40%

JNP             7                 1               37.90%

JNP(S)+      6                 0                 7.12% (CPI was part of JNP(S))

INC(U)        4                 0                 0.83%

JNP split and INC wave led to a INC landslide which is replicated across rest of Northern India.  What is now BJP still part of JNP at this time



1984 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 7               68.72%

BJP+           7                 0               27.38% (LKD and JNP part of BJP+)

Post-Indira Gandhi assassination INC wave crushes combined opposition effort in a massive INC landslide just like the rest of Northern India.



1989 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 2               43.41%

BJP+           6                 4               32.21% (tactical alliance with JD)

JD              3                 1               16.28% (tactical alliance with BJP+)

BSP            5                 0                 3.65%

Tactical alliance between BJP and JD defeats INC just like the rest of Northern India.


 
1991 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 2               39.57%

BJP             7                 5                40.21%

JD               7                0                14.21%

BJP surge based on the Hindu consolidation of the Ram Temple movement gives BJP narrow victory over INC.  This election was held before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination and matches the BJP surge in the rest of Northern India where the vote was held before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.  

In 1993 Delhi was made a UT with an assembly and CM role and the first assembly elections since the 1950s were held.  Given the surge of the BJP in the Hindi heartland over the Ram Temple movement and traditional BJP strength in Delhi it was not a surprise that the BJP won with a significant number of INC rebels adding to the scale of INC defeat as the anti-INC vote clearly shifted to BJP.

1993 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              14               34.48%

INC rebel                        3                 2.55%

BJP              70             40               42.82%

JD               70               4                12.65%

BSP             55               0                 1.88%


The BJP captured the CM spot and was able to build on this victory to a larger vote share victory in the LS elections in 1996 where the INC core vote came out but swamped by the consolidation of the anti-INC vote behind BJP as JD pretty much disappears from the scene in Delhi.

1996 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 2               37.29%

AIIC(T)        7                0                 2.25% (INC splinter)

BJP             7                 5               49.62%

JD+            7                 0                 4.64% (CPI CPM were part of JD+)


JD formed the government at the center backed by INC which broke down by 1998 leading to fresh LS elections.   INC and JD bungling at the federal level clearly helps BJP and mitigate clearly anti-incumbency building up against the BJP at the state level due BJP inter-factional battles which would lead the BJP to change CM both in 1996 and 1998.  The net effect is still a strong BJP victory.

1998 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 1               42.64%

BJP             7                 6               50.73%

JD               5                 0                2.46%

BSP            6                  0                2.34%

Even thought clear BJP problems at the state level in Delhi did not translate into defeats in the 1996 and 1998 LS elections for BJP in Delhi the 1998 Delhi assembly would be a different story.  BJP put in a rising superstar Sushma Swaraj last minute as CM to try to save the situation but it was too little too late as rising onion prices and anger at overall BJP ineffectiveness led to a significant defeat.

1998 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              52               47.76%

INC rebel                        2                 4.85%

BJP+            70             15               34.98% (INLD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                 1.25%

BSP             55               0                 3.09%

JD               48               1                 1.80%

This defeat meant that up until this date there would not another BJP CM again.   The INC went with old Gandhi clan ally Sheila Diksh**t whose upper caste background was able to help captured disgruntled upper caste BJP votes in the elections.  With the backing of the Gandhi clan she is able to stay atop of the Delhi INC hierarchy over the various INC factions.
 
Another LS election came when the BJP government fell after AIADMK pulled support.  The resulting Modi wave carried BJP to victory in Delhi on the basis of Vajpayee's popularity was able to overcome INC in its honeymoon period in the state government.  

1999 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0               41.96%

BJP             7                7                51.75%

JD(S)          1                 0                 1.39%

BSP            3                 0                 2.24%

CM Sheila Diksh**t was seen as being successful and an united INC was able to win re-election in 2003 with a tiny swing toward the BJP as the BJP still recovers from its disastrous term in office in 1993-1998.

2003 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              47               48.13%

INC rebel                        0                 0.68%

NCP            33                1                 2.24%

BJP             70              20               35.22%

BJP rebel                        0                 1.46%

BSP+          41               0                  5.95%


The BJP did well in other 2003 assembly elections and called a LS election early in 2004 and was unexpectedly defeated in Delhi and India overall.

2004 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 6               54.81%

BJP             7                 1                40.67%

BSP            7                 0                 2.48%

The anti-BJP vote in Delhi looks like consolidated behind INC.  The shock BJP defeat across India led to an UPA regime coming to power at the federal level.

For 2008 Delhi assembly elections there were some anti-incumbency against the INC, especially with its Dalit base but INC managed to win re-election as most of those votes went to BSP and not BJP.

2008 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              43               40.31%

NC rebel                         0                 0.87%

NCP            16                0                 1.38%

BJP+          70              23               36.84% (SAD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                 0.44%

BSP            70               2                14.05%


For the 2009 LS election there was as pro-INC wave in part of urban India which included Delhi and saw a landslide victory by INC

2009 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 7                57.11%

BJP             7                 0                35.23%

BSP            7                 0                  5.34%

The UPA won re-election across India in 2009 overall as well.

The third INC term in Delhi and second UPA term at the federal level were plagued with scandals which provoked anti-corruption protests leading to the formation of AAP which had its center in Delhi.  The 2013 assembly election became a 3 way battle between INC BJP and AAP.  AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal running against INC CM Sheila Diksh**t in her seat galvanized AAP leading them to come in a close second to BJP as INC had a last minute collapse.

2013 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70               7               24.71%

INC rebel                       1                 0.97%

BJP+          70              30               34.20% (SAD was part of INC+)

AAP            70              28              29.68%

JD(U)         27                1                0.88%

BSP           69                0                5.38%

Most of the Dalit surge for BSP in 2008 seems to have shifted to AAP.  Post-election to keep out the BJP the INC backed AAP's Arvind Kejriwal for CM but that only lasted for 50+ days until AAP-INC relations collapsed leading to the assembly to be held in suspension as no party could gather a majority. 

The 2014 LS saw AAP try to press its advantage across board in India but especially Delhi given their 2013 success but was buried by the Modi wave.

2014 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0                15.22%

BJP             7                 7                46.63%

BSP            7                 0                  1.23%

AAP            7                  0               33.08%

AAP did demonstrate that it was the main rival to BJP in Delhi now and not INC.   When the 2015 Delhi assembly election finally came the AAP was able to consolidate the entire anti-BJP vote and win a massive landslide.

2015 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70               0                9.69%

BJP+           70               3              32.83% (SAD was part of BJP+)

AAP             70             67              54.55%

BSP            70               0                1.31%

Arvind Kejriwal's AAP was returned to power

Post 2015 the Arvind Kejriwal AAP government did manage to disappoint and over time the BJP has shown that it was regaining strength in Delhi.   Worst for AAP for while it seems INC was also becoming active again and taking back some of its base from the AAP.  The 2019 LS election saw some attempt by INC and AAP to form some alliance to stop Modi but collapsed to to egos.  The 2019 saw the second Modi wave and a massive BJP landslide.

2019 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0                22.63%

BJP             7                 7                56.86%

BSP            5                 0                  1.09%

AAP            7                 0                18.20%

AAP being pushed to third place was a shock to the AAP and Arvind Kejriwal.  Post 2019 LS election AAP did a 180 degree turn and shifted away from national politics and toward being the Delhi regional party.  AAP accepting that Modi is popular in Delhi and stopped attacking him but projecting local issues actually worked to the AAP advantage and as the 2020 assembly election approached AAP is seen as having the upper hand especially when the BJP did not seems to be able to come up with a CM candidates given its internal disparage factions.

VDPA polls on PM Modi approval has Modi doing well in Hindi areas and poorly in Deep South.  Upper South and Assam are sort of OK. AP levels of support is a big jump from last year but Modi doing surprisingly poor in Gujarat.  I guess 24/7 Modi all the time since 2001 will get tiring after 19 years.
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Support for who should be PM still have Modi way at the top.  Given Rahul is in theory exiled from INC leadership 17 is not bad.  Main problem would be for BJP "After Modi, Who?"
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https://www.news18.com/news/politics/can-naidu-pawan-kalyan-bonhomie-local-leaders-proposal-see-tdp-janasena-tie-up-ahead-of-local-body-polls-2454789.html

In AP there might be a political realignment where TDP and JSP might from an alliance to take on the YSRCP.  There were talk of TDP perhaps going back to BJP but it was concluded that JSP has a much bigger base in AP than BJP. 

It seems that SAD which got to contest 4 out of 70 seats will be asking for more from BJP this time.  It seems BJP's Haryana ally JJP will also run in Jat areas and is forcing the BJP into alliance talks.  JJP seems to be asking for 10 seats which is clearly a no go for BJP but I can see them also getting around 4-6 seat allocation from BJP.  BJP's position is relatively weak enough this time vis-a-vis AAP that they might agreed to something like this.  BJP's hope has to be that BJP-JJP-SAD consolidates the old BJP base and INC outperforms and cuts into the AAP vote.

In AP, JSP did a u-turn and announce an alliance with BJP.  This seems a way for JSP to get more indirect funding given how weak BJP is in AP.  What the BJP really need is for JSP to merge into BJP and for Pawan Kalyan to be the face of the BJP in AP.  It seems JSP is refusing to do this an lose its identity.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/delhi-assembly-elections-2020-5-000-rallies-in-20-days-bjps-big-plan-for-delhi-polls-2166091

"5,000 Rallies In 20 Days: BJP's Big Plan For Delhi Elections"

It seems the BJP is going to copy the 2015 AAP election strategy model of many mini-rallies versus a dozen mega rallies.  These rallies will be only a couple of hundred people but in 2015 the AAP strategy of mini-rallies seems to have worked from a micro-targeting point of view.  Main problem of BJP doing this is that this means it is harder to deploy Modi which still a key BJP asset to get out the BJP core vote.   

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/bjp-may-give-most-of-remaining-13-seats-to-akali-dal-jdu-jjp/articleshow/73364311.cms

"Delhi assembly elections: BJP may give most of remaining 13  seats to Akali Dal, JD(U), JJP"

BJP have announced 57 candidates out of 70 seats.  It seems a bunch of the remaining 13 will go to allies.  After the Jharkhand setback where BJP lost ground in part due to losing the AJSU alliance the BJP is going out of its way to keep its NDA allies.  It seems SAD will get at least 4 seats (which it got in 2015), JD(U) will get at least 2, and JJP will get 2.   JJP seems to want a dozen seat which for sure is out of the question for BJP so JJP might in the end go its own way.  JD(U) base in Delhi is based on Bihari immigrants most of which went AAP in 2015.  BJP must be hoping JD(U) might try to get this vote base back for BJP.

 

VDPA poll projects AAP victory with INC being marginalized and BJP getting a positive swing but not enough to overthrow AAP 2015 majority.

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It seems that INC is also hoping to capture some of the Bihari immigrant vote in Delhi.  INC has allocated 4 seats to its Bihar ally RJD

https://www.hindustantimes.com/assembly-elections/bjp-won-t-have-alliance-with-akali-dal-dushyant-chautala-s-jjp-in-delhi/story-n27zOi1c4bPRRQ1T8QeBLL.html

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/bjp-gives-three-seats-to-jdu-ljp-for-delhi-polls/1713241

"BJP won’t have alliance with Akali Dal, Dushyant Chautala’s JJP in Delhi"
"BJP gives three seats to JD(U), LJP for Delhi polls"

In Delhi, It seems in the end BJP will not have an alliance with SAD and JJP but will hand out 2 seats to JD(U) and 1 to LJP.  JJP will for sure run candidates on its own.  Not clear if SAD will run candidates or just not run.  Not clear what this means for the 100K Sikh votes in Delhi will now flow to.

It seems in that SAD will not run in Delhi as BJP ally over differences over CAA.

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/01/19/kejriwal-releases-guarantee-card-of-promises-free-bus-rides-mohalla-marshals.html

AAP CM Kejriwal rolls out a 'guarantee card' filled with all sorts of freebies ranging from free power to free bus to free water.  It also promises "mohalla marshals" on public transit to ensure the safety of women using public transit.

In Delhi it seems Haryana Jat party and BJP ally JJP will not run due to not getting a satisfactory symbol from ECI as it is not a Delhi state parry.   JJP refused to run on BJP symbol.  So BJP will have 2 allies (2 seats for JD(U) and 1 seat for LJP)   INC ally RJD will get 4 seats but will run on INC symbol due to RJD not being a Delhi state party. 

This year there is a big focus on the Bihari immigrant vote. 

SAD breaking off its alliance with BJP in Delhi feels like a big deal and might be an advanced signal that SAD might break off its alliance with BJP for the 2023 Punjab assembly election which would be huge.  If the SAD is headed in that direction it most likely be because SAD sense that it might lose its Sikh base to a second coming of AAP in Punjab over the CAA issue. 

INC is not a real threat to SAD for the Sikh vote as there will always be a significant anti-INC Sikh base in Punjab.  But AAP is a different matter.  In 2017 AAP was poised to push SAD to third place to capturing the SAD Sikh base.  Then AAP imploded allowing for the revival of SAD in Punjab to become the main opposition to INC.  The AAP decline continued after 2017 fortifying the SAD position as the main opposition to INC.  Now due to  anti-CAA sentiments with the Sikh base SAD might sense that an alliance with the BJP will drive anti-INC but anti-CAA Sikh base over to AAP and SAD has to move to try to prevent that.

 

BJP offering JD(U) 2 seats and LJP 1 seats seems be an attempt to capture the Bihari immigrant vote but also to try to hold the JD(U)-BJP-LJP alliance in Bihar together for the 2020 Bihar assembly elections later in the year.

There seems to be some blow-back within the JD(U) over the alliance.  The antj-BJP anti-CAA faction of JD(U) are voicing concern about a BJP-JD(U) alliance in a state outside of Bihar.   The main force within JD(U) centers around Prashant Kishor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prashant_Kishor).  Prashant Kishor is a political strategist that worked for Modi in the 2012 BJP Gujarat assembly election and was a key strategist for the 2014 Modi-BJP LS campaign.  Prashant Kishor, it seems, was expecting some sort of role in the BJP government at the federal level and got nothing.  He then shifted to an anti-BJP stance and worked for the 2015 RJD-JD(U)-INC Bihar assembly campaign that smashed the NDA and then worked for the 2017 INC Punjab campaign.  In 2018 he joined the JD(U) and seems to continue working with non-BJP parties including BJP allies that might not see eye-to-eye with the BJP to outright anti-BJP parties.  It is said that Prashant Kishor is also working with AAP this Delhi election and now he might be working against his own party if he continues his work with AAP.   

https://www.epw.in/journal/2020/2/special-articles/continuing-practice-untouchability-india.html

Intersecting report on "Continuing Practice Untouchability in India"

Brahmins practices it the most due to most likely religiously beliefs.  It is interesting that OBC practices it more than non-Brahmins upper castes.  Even some Dalits practice it (to other Dalits lower down in the social hierarchy).   Sort of proves that part of this is about the need to feel socially superior to someone else.  Just like in the Old South sometimes White trash would enforce Jim Crow more aggressively than upper income Whites.
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Education have limited impact on the practicing of untouchability
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The practice of untouchability  centers around the Hindu heartland.  More urbanized Maharashtra has lower instances of the  practice of untouchability  but fairly urban Gujarat have a high instance of practice of untouchability.
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India Today MOTN poll

For LS
        vote    seats
NDA  41%    303
  BJP 36%     271
UPA  29%     108
  INC 20%      60

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Not that much change from 2019 LS election other than SHS leaving NDA cost NDA a bunch of votes and seats.  BJP and INC vote bases mostly same as 2019 LS election with a slight swing toward INC

Modi still way ahead of Rahul Gandhi for PM and seen as the the greatest Indian PM ever
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Near majority support removing Article 370 for J&K
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View on CAA seems mixed with plurality for CAA but a plurality does see CAA as a BJP political tool versus a legitimate policy concern  
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Telengana municipal elections sees TRS with a massive landslide victory with BJP and INC fighting for a distance second.
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TRS was re-elected in 2018 assembly elections and being that it is only been less than two years since re-election one would expect TRS to sweep these sort of local elections. Still the scale of TRS victory shows what a force TRS is at the local level.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/assembly-elections/delhi-assembly-elections-2020-congress-aap-battle-for-same-vote-base-in-delhi-polls/story-5T3Iy5O1vrR5Gz46q1EeVP.html

"BJP banking on good show by Congress in Delhi polls. Here’s why"

It is pretty sad these days that BJP is hoping that INC does well in Delhi.  Since most of the AAP base came from the INC base, INC retaking some of its old base from AAP is the only way BJP can win.

After the TRS landslide in municipal elections in Telengana, TRS leader KCR made common cause with Arvind Kejriwal's AAP in Delhi by indicating that AAP is heading toward a landslide victory in Delhi and that regional parties like TRS and AAP will continue its non-INC anti-BJP position of anti-CAA.

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/delhi-polls-aap-strong-but-bjp-gaining-steadily/1719039

Latest C-voter Delhi tracking poll has

AAP  50.6 (-3.2)
BJP   31.2(+2.0)
INC    5.3(+1.9)

AAP losing ground but well ahead.   Most polls like this overestimate the incumbent but the scale of the AAP lead  is large enough to be sure that AAP is well ahead.  I suspect in the AAP wins a narrow victory over BJP.

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/desh-ka-mood-nda-to-get-330-seats-if-elections-held-today-70-want-modi-as-pm-1149162

ABP-C-Voter national poll has NDA winning 330 seats if LS held today.  It has

             Vote share        Seats
NDA          44%              330
UPA           25%              130

Not clear how the poll handled SHS leaving NDA.  I assume they like India Today's MOTN poll assumes that SHS will just run separately from NDA and UPA.

The NDA seats by key states are

UP- 69
Bihar - 36
MP-25
Rajasthan - 21
Gujarat - 26
Maharashtra - 21
Assam - 10
Delhi - 7
Bengal - 22
Karnataka - 22

Which has NDA gaining in UP from 2019 due to SP-BSP split.  NDA seems to lose a bit of ground in non-UP Hindi heartland states like Bihar MP and Rajasthan.   SHS leaving NDA clearly will cost BJP in Maharashtra.   NDA gains a seat in Assam shows the anti-CAA protest there did not hurt BJP.  In Karnataka BJP loses a bit of ground as INC and JD(S) split up which means that INC and JD(S) rebel voters switch back.   In WB BJP seems to have surged to 22 beating out AITC.

These results are counter-intuitive as one would expect CAA would help consolidate BJP strength in the Hindi heartland but hurt BJP in Assam and WB.  The opposite seems to be taking place.

As for PM preference in a 2 way race it is Modi 70 Rahul Gandhi 25

In Delhi it seems that the person leading the BJP campaign is really former BJP president and current Home Minister Amit Shah.  The reasons for this seems to many but comes down to

a) BJP is behind so if Modi took too big a role and BJP loses badly then the Modi brand would be damanaged
b) Amit Shah is the Modi preferred successor to Modi within the BJP anyway so it makes sense to give him more exposure and ownership
c) Amit Shah is better at running low level attrition battles based on local issue versus Modi's strength in projecting a overall national narrative

In the meantime SAD and BJP seems to have made up with SAD backing BJP even though SAD will not be running any candidates.   I suspect the damage with Sikh voters is already done anyway.

https://news.abplive.com/videos/news/india-aap-likely-to-get-47-votes-in-delhi-polls-siyasat-ka-sensex-31012020-1152009

"AAP likely to get 47% votes in Delhi Polls | Siyasat Ka Sensex"

Siyasat Ka Sensex data lab seems to come out with a projection of

AAP   47%
BJP    37%
INC     4%

The momentum seems to be on the BJP side and the gap between the two is most likely closer since INC clearly will get above 4% of the vote and most of that will be at the expense of AAP.  AAP still has the edge but most likely their victory will be very narrow.

http://www.businessworld.in/article/NewsX-Polstrat-Opinion-Poll-Says-AAP-Set-To-Win-In-Delhi-Again-BJP-To-Get-12-15-Seats/26-01-2020-182753/

"NewsX-Polstrat Opinion Poll Says AAP Set To Win In Delhi Again, BJP To Get 12-15 Seats"

NewsX poll has it at

           Seats     Vote share
AAP     53-56       48.56%
BJP      12-15       31.70%
INC       2-4           9.64%

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This poll was from a few days ago and it seems BJP had picked up support since.  Still a good poll for AAP.  INC at 2-4 seats with 9.64% seems to indicate that the Muslim vote has swung back to INC from 2015 even as INC Hindu votes have shifted to AAP.  The concentration of Muslims in a few seats means that INC wins 2-4 seats.

NewsX poll of polls shows a similar result
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From what I've seen, the BJP is perceived as a mostly Hindi party in Southern India, and so unless if the INC falls apart, even then the BJP wouldn't do well in Southern India.

The BJP is clearly trying to nationalize the Delhi assembly elections around CAA and anti-CAA protests.  The BJP wants to link the anti-CAA protests to the Indian Left and then tie the Indian Left to Pakistan.  AAP knows this is a losing battle because if all the BJP voters of the 2019 LS elections voted BJP then AAP will lose in a landslide.  AAP instead is trying to fight on local issues. 


Last few days the BJP is gaining traction in getting the media and voter discussions to be around topics it wants to fight on: CAA vs anti-CAA protests.   A BJP minister in a rally led a chant "shoot the traitors" which while making the BJP look extreme does shift the discussion toward issues of CAA and anti-CAA protests.  There we some shootings by pro-BJP activists toward supposed anti-CAA protests pretty much did the same thing: Making BJP lose some moderates votes but shift the discussion toward national issues which would pay the BJP back several fold.   

Mostly true but INC is not doing that well in the Dravidian South where other than Kerala INC has pretty much lost ground to regional parties.  Also BJP is fairly strong in Karnataka and is making headway in Telangana (in urban Telangana BJP is the main opposition to TRS while in rural Telangana INC is the main opposition to TRS.)  In the deep South (TN and Kerala) the BJP brand is toxic under Modi mostly because of the view that under Modi the BJP has become a the Hindi party.  But if the BJP can dominate Northern India then the Deep South regional parties can be co-oped into power sharing by the BJP.   

On the negative side for the BJP in Delhi, it seems INC is running a very low key campaign and pretty much de facto giving up ahead of time to give the AAP the best chance of beating back BJP.  I assume the INC is hoping that AAP precipitates in the next LS election in Delhi.

Times Now-IPSOS  poll for Delhi has it at

           Seats          Vote Share
AAP       57                 52%
BJP       12                  34%
INC        1                    4%

()
()

By 51-24 margin voters are opposed to anti-CAA protests
()

AAP leads across the board on issues
()

In another attempt to nationalize the Delhi assembly election Modi announces the formation of a truest to build the Ram temple in Ayodhya.  This was stipulated in the SC judgement on Ayodhya but the timing of the announcement right before the Delhi assembly election clearly is an attempt to woo Hindu voters toward the BJP.

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/delhi-election-2020-abp-cvoter-opinion-poll-kejriwal-led-aap-shaheen-bagh-bjp-issue-1154278

Final ABP-C-Voter poll

           Seats     Vote Share
AAP       50           45.6%
BJP       18           37.1%
INC        2             4.4%

BJP clearly gaining ground.  Based on this it is pretty clear that AAP scale of victory most likely is overstated in many other polls given the momentum of the BJP and that AAP's victory will most likely be narrow.  INC levels of support is still the big X-factor.  The better the INC does the smaller the scale of AAP's victory.

Newsx based on this did a poll of polls which of course show all polls have AAP well ahead

()

India News-Neta poll has it

AAP   54
BJP   15
INC    1

()

ABP Delhi tracking poll does show BJP cutting into AAP's lead over time

()

Voting to start soon in Delhi.  Not sure if there will be exit polls.  Hopefully there will be.

My gut feeling is that the BJP won the election campaign and should out perform pre election polls in the exit polls.   AAP should still win based on winning over the INC base. 

Turnout down around 10% so far from 2015

()

Anti-BJP Democracy Times exit poll for Delhi

BJP: 04-08
INC: 00-01
AAP: 61-66
OTH: 00-01

Turnout will most likely be at most 60% which is a fall of over 7% from 2015.

NDTV poll of exit polls so far has AAP ahead 49-20 over BJP

()

VDP exit poll has a lot more detailed breakdown

          Seats     vote share
AAP      48            48%
BJP       22            40%
INC        0             6%
()



AAP victory has to do with its CM face
()



Breakdown by community

INC Muslim base shifted to AAP to give it the victory.  BJP won back from AAP its old Upper Caste base relative to 2015.  Despite SAD support Sikh vote went AAP most likely due to anti-CAA.
()



BJP will still win in a LS election given the Modi and CAA factor
()

AAP has successfully transformed itself from an anti-system party to a party of governance and stability.

Updated NDTV poll of exit polls has it at AAP 51 BJP 18 INC 1

()

BJP seems to be outperforming pre-election polls a bit so it certain that BJP will cross 20 seats and beat back the AAP landslide.

Looks like there was a last minute surge in turnout so final turnout might not be that far off from the record 2015 levels.

Further adjustments by exit poll based on late turnout surge seems to shift things against BJP in NDTV poll of exit polls to make it AAP 52 BJP 17 INC 1

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Republic TV vote share have AAP above 50%, it seems mostly due to INC vote tactical voting for AAP

()

ABP News- CVOTER  poll has a much stronger INC vote share

AAP-  46%
BJP-   34%
INC-  13%

()

Axis My India is the only larger pollster that has not come in with their complete exit polls.  Their initial partial exit poll results leans heavy for AAP.

Axis My India has massive AAP landslide

AAP  59-58
BJP   2-11
INC     0
()

Cvoter poll breakdown by education

BJP stronger as education rises.  Of course eduaction is also strongly correlated with income and Upper caste.
()

Axis My India complete results

AAP    64    56%
BJP      6    35%
INC     0      5%
()

has a repeat of 2015 with INC tactical voting for AAP.

With regional breakdown
()

Post Axis My India NDTV poll of exit polls AAP 56 BJP 14 INC 0.  Nut sure what happen to Sudarshan News exit poll and why it got yanked.  They did shift their numbers after releasing their figure so they might have yanked the poll completely to take into account the late turnout turn which most likely helped AAP (just like 2015).

()

Final list of exit polls and average

                                AAP        BJP        INC
India Today-Axis          63          7           0
ABP-Covter                 56        12           2
NewsX-Polstrat            56        14           0
NewsX-Neta                55        14           1
News24-JanKi Baat      55        15           0
Republic-Jan Ki Baat    54        15           1
TV9-Cicero                 54         15           1
Spick Media                51         17           2
Sudarshan                  49         20           1
VDPA                          48        22           0
Times Now-Ipsos         47        23           0
IndiaTV-Ipsos              44        26           0
------------------------------------------------------------
Average                      53        16           1

There are three pre-election polls that had an exit poll.

Pre-election
                                AAP        BJP        INC
Times Now-Ipsos         57        12           1
ABP-Covter                 49        17           1
NewsX-Polstrat            54        14           2
----------------------------------------------------
                                 53        16           1

Exit poll
                                AAP        BJP        INC
Times Now-Ipsos         47        23           0
ABP-Covter                 56        12           2
NewsX-Polstrat            56        14           0
----------------------------------------------------
                                 53        16           1

So no momentum either way.  If so no reason not to go with average of exit polls since this is not a defeat of the incumbent party.    So my exit poll based projection has it at

                                AAP        BJP        INC
                                 53        16           1

Delhi turnout ends up being 61.18% which is lower than 2013 and 2015 but higher than all the others that came before it.  Turnout was most heavy in Muslim areas. 

The main risk for the BJP in these exit polls are that India Today-Axis which was the most accurate exit pollster last few elections is also the most pessimistic on the BJP.  Of course India Today-Axis had their own share of missed called.  The 2015 Bihar assembly India Today-Axis was way off.  Their positive record on started the last couple of years.

The main risk for AAP in these exit polls are that most of these exit polls are based on polling done up to 4:30PM to 5:00PM.  But there was a large turnout surge right after that time up to 6:00PM.  In theory that could be a pro-AAP surge just like 2015 but there is a risk that the last minute surge has an anti-incumbent bias in favor of BJP.

It seems J&K will go through a very long delimitation and the assembly election will most likely not be held until 2021

More Axis exit poll breakdown

Old INC vote base Muslims and Balmiki Dalits broke for AAP.   AAP managed to split OBC and Upper Caste vote with BJP.
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Gender gap of women in favor of AAP
()

With around half of the vote counted it is a solid AAP victory

                        Seats     Diff on 2015
AAP                    58            -9
BJP-JD(U)-LJP     12           +9
INC-RJD              0              0

Vote share wise on ECI site which has a greater lag has it at (NULLs not filtered out)   

AAP                  52.66%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP   41.11%
INC-RJD             4.07%

BJP is blaming INC for running a lackluster campaign and allowing the AAP to pickup the INC vote for the landslide win.   INC is blaming the BJP for polarizing the election which led to the INC base to tactically vote for AAP.

These sort of vote shares seems to imply BJP in single digit seats so the BJP seat count is more likely to fall.

INC becoming a minor player in Delhi.  INC in Delhi going the way of INC in WB, Tripura and AP where it used to be a powerful force only to become a force in the single digits.

53%-41% translating into mere single digits in seat count for the losing party in a 70-seat assembly looks shockingly bad for the party in question. Does this happen much in India?

Delhi tends to be more uniform in terms of vote share distribution given the lack of political diversity given its size.  Still this is just my hunch.

This is the 4th BJP setback in assembly elections since its 2019 LS landslide victory (Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and now Delhi.)  In the end Modi is not Indira Gandhi who in the 1971-1972 period and in the 1980 carried INC to victory across the board in assembly election victories after a LS landslide.   Modi's appeal seems to be limited only relative to national security issues and not across the board as Indira Gandhi seems to have achieved.

NDA vote share fall in state assembly elections since the 2019 LS landslide vs the 2019 LS NDA vote share

                    2019LS      Assembly
Haryana        58.21%       36.69%
Maharashtra  51.34%       42.66%
Jharkhand     56.00%       35.84%
Delhi            56.86%        40.23% (for now)

One of the reasons AAP rebounded from the 2019 LS debacle is that they stopped trying to attack Modi.  AAP's campaign recognized Modi's popularity in Delhi and ran on the position that there is no reason why a pro-Modi voter cannot vote AAP in the state election and that AAP welcome such votes.

Current seat count are (BJP gained a bit)

                        Seats     Diff on 2015
AAP                    56           -11
BJP-JD(U)-LJP     14          +11
INC-RJD              0              0

Vote share wise on ECI site which has a greater lag has it at (NULLs not filtered out)  

AAP                  53.01%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP   40.47%
INC-RJD             4.30%

Despite this heavy defeat the NDA vote share is the highest for ever in Delhi assembly elections since 1993 which was the last time BJP won a majority in a Delhi assembly election.

While AAP gained some Dalit and Muslim INC voters it seems that some of the INC Upper caste vote went over to the BJP.

With most of the vote counted it is a heavy landslide defeat of BJP

                        Seats     Diff on 2015       Vote share (null not filtered out)
AAP                    63           -4                             53.61%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP      7           +4                             39.69%
INC-RJD              0              0                              4.39%

Axis My India exit polls ended up being the most accurate again, especially on the vote share to seat translation.

INC came in third in all 70 seats.  In 2015 INC at least came in second in 4 seats

Muslim heavy Matia Mahal shows how the Muslim vote shifted

AAP  76.0 (+16.8 )
BJP  19.2  (+7.9)
INC    3.9 (-22.9)

In 2015 BJP ran a Muslim candidate.  This time they ran a Hindu candidate.  BJP consolidated the Hindu vote this time but what remained of the 2015 INC Muslim base shifted to AAP in response.

Getting close to the end.  BJP picks up a seat.

                        Seats     Diff on 2015       Vote share (null not filtered out)
AAP                    62           -5                             53.60%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP      8           +5                             39.74%
INC-RJD              0              0                              4.31%

The 3 main blocs add up to nearly 98% of the vote which is a record on top of 2015.  Polarization very strong in this election 

The collapse of BSP in Delhi assembly election is just as dramatic as the collapse of the INC.  In 2008 Delhi assembly elections BSP won 14.05% of the vote.  In 2020 so far BSP is at 0.71%  BSP was at 5.38% in 2013 and 1.31% in 2015.  AAP pretty much ate up all of the BSP vote between 2013 and 2020.
 

All voted counted in Delhi assembly election

                        Seats     Diff on 2015       Vote share (null not filtered out)
AAP                    62           -5                             53.57%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP      8           +5                             39.77%
INC-RJD              0              0                              4.30%

I was able to compute the result table

2020 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           70               0                4.32% (RJD was part of INC+)

BJP+           70               8              39.95% (JD(U) and LJP were part of BJP+)

SHS              5               0                0.21%

AAP             70             62              53.82%

BSP             68               0               0.72%

The BJP campaign of using CAA seems to have flopped.  Of course taking the CAA narrative to farcical levels was always not going to work.  Toward the end of the campaign the BJP resorted to calling AAP CM Kejriwal a crypto-Muslim and an agent of Pakistan.  Kejriwal was asked on TV to recite the Hindu hymn Hanuman Chalisa (which gives thanks to the Hindu monkey deity Hanuman) to prove he was a Hindu.  Such a method of attack was always going to fail in an urban environment and the BJP were fools to try it.

NDTV claims the BJP vote share increase was mostly from INC

()

I think it is more complex then that.  I am sure what remained of the 2015 Upper Caste and OBC INC vote went to BJP but I think there was also a swing of Upper Caste and OBC AAP vote to BJP and a shift  of INC Muslim and Dalit votes to AAP in response so the AAP net vote share barely moved.

Very interesting result.

The AAP record of winning 2 landslides in a row with greater than 50% of the vote is very rare in India state level elections where there is usually a fairly strong current of anti-incumbency. 

I looked around and the only other example of this would be, ironically, Gujarat 1980 and Gujarat 1985.  Gujarat is now a very strong BJP state (Modi's home state) but during the 1980s was a fairly strong INC state.  INC CM Madhav Singh Solanki during that period came up with the KHAM theory (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslims) which fused Upper Castes, Dalits, Tribals and Muslims into a huge pro-INC bloc at the expense the economically powerful Patels.  Based on this social coalition the INC smashed the BJP in both 1980 and 1985 with greater than 50% of the vote. Of course this permanently aliened Patels and other OBCS from INC and shifted them to BJP.  As the KHAM coalition fell apart in the 1990s with Upper Castes also going over to BJP, Dalits splintering and Muslims become distrustful of BJP the INC era of dominance came to the end and replaced with BJP domination. 

Recently things are going full circle with Patels feeling that BJP are taking them for granted and could shift to INC to make Gujarat competitive again.

The KHAM theory is actually the basis of the BJP (now seemingly failed) strategy of forming a coalition of communities to align against the dominate community of a state (Jats in Harayana, Marathas in Maharashtra, and tribals in Jharkhand)  Recently state assembly elections in those states where the BJP unperformed in all three shows the limits of such a strategy.   

The AAP blueprint for victory is actually similar to what other parties have done before to win:
1) Do not focus too much on overall governance and economic enviornment
2) Instead focus on one or two sops or social programs and make sure they are done well even at the expense of other programs
3) Keep on talking the success of these one or two social programs during the election

For AAP their main talking point was
a) subsidized eletricity
b) safe public transit (for women)

Even though the AAP record is mixed on other issues they just kept on hammering home these two accomplishments and rode them to victory.  b) clearly helped as there was a clear gender gap of women support for AAP in the exit polls.   

Maybe an ignorant question, but what's the general socioeconomic profile of the BJP's Muslim voters?

Shia Muslims given the Sunni domination of the Muslim institutions in India and their own discrimination of Shia Muslims.  Also due to the Triple Talaq issues more women Muslim voters vote BJP then men.

The 2019 LS BJP landslide victory followed by under-performance in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and now Delhi even with polls showing that Modi is clearly the most popular politician in India shows there is a clear "Modi vote" above and beyond the "BJP vote."   The trick now is to try to estimate it.

One way I decided to try to measure this is to take all the assembly election results of 2015-2019 (2014 for J&K) and look at the BJP and INC vote shares and compare them to the BJP and INC vote shares in the 2019 LS election.  By 2015 the Modi magic of pushing up the BJP vote share in assembly elections have clearly worn off so this is a fair comparison.  Doing this and breaking up the results by the language type (Hindi, non-Hindi Indo-Aryan, Sino-Tibetian, Dravidian), of said state gives us

2015-2019 assembly                                          
                           Turnout%   BJP vote share     INC vote share
Overall                    69.30%          26.83%             20.67%
Hindi                       64.85%          37.09%             26.96%
Indo-Aryan              71.33%          26.83%             24.41%
Sino-Tibetian            84.15%          22.03%             23.32%
Dravidian                 75.69%            4.41%             12.19%

2019 LS
                           Turnout%   BJP vote share     INC vote share
Overall                    66.73%          37.41%             19.64%
Hindi                       62.32%          49.25%             19.20%
Indo-Aryan              68.76%          39.72%             21.11%
Sino-Tibetian            76.76%         19.89%              30.78%
Dravidian                 73.32%            7.15%             17.05%

One flaw of my methodology is that in states where the BJP/INC have stable local allies, the BJP/INC vote share will be higher in LS elections since as the national party the BJP/INC will get a greater share of seat allocation in LS elections than they deserve versus state assembly elections.  This was clearly the case for the BJP in TN and Kerala and for the INC in Kerala and Bihar.  But for the BJP in Bihar and Maharashtra given the local BJP allies (JD(U) and SHS) were playing hardball the BJP seat allocation in those two states actually matched relative BJP strength in Bihar and Maharashtra

Another quirk here is that in 2018 Telengana assembly elections the BJP vote share is underestimated since like the 2020 Delhi assembly elections where the INC vote shifted tactically to AAP to stop BJP the 2018 Telengana BJP vote shifted tactically to TRS to stop INC.

So overall the BJP state assembly vote share is Dravidian states is underestimated (Telengana) while the BJP 2019 LS vote share in Dravidian states are overestimated (TN and Kerala).

If we take that into account it is clear the "Modi vote" which is the 2019 LS BJP vote share gap on top of the BJP state assembly vote share is pretty much concentrated in the Hindi and Indo-Aryan states and is roughly around 12%-13% of the overall vote which is a massive personal vote.  Looking at exit polls it seems this "Modi vote" is concentrated in OBC, Dalit, and Tribals.

Historically the BJP leadership since the 1960s were almost all Upper Caste Hindi belt politicians.  Modi being a Gujarati OBC allows him to take into a bloc of voters that historically been turned off by the BJP image as an upper caste party.  Modi seems to have broken through with these voters and expanding this breakthrough in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states.  On the other hand Modi seems to struggle to shift the Modi vote to the BJP in state assembly elections especially when the BJP is the incumbent party.

The fact that Dalits and Tribals form a significant part of the Modi vote seems to indicate that while both communities are still resentful of Upper Caste domination at the social level they all aspire to be part of a global superpower that Modi represents in terms of aspirations.  This is something opposition parties have to tap into if they are to regain these voters in LS elections.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/babulal-marandi-merges-jvm-with-bjp-amit-shah-jp-nadda-1647292-2020-02-17

"Babulal Marandi merges JVM with BJP, Amit Shah, JP Nadda welcomes former Jharkhand CM"

In Jharkhand, ex-BJP CM Babulal Marandi and founder of JVM merges JVM back into BJP.  Back in 2014 Modi considered asking Babulal Marandi to merge JVM back into BJP and become the BJP CM.  Babulal Marandi came up with conditions that were too harsh for BJP so it broke down.  Now he is coming back under much more difficult circumstances.  Anyway at least this will help shore up the BJP tribal vote.

INC Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot claims that BJP leadership in Delhi lost on purpose

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/bjp-leaders-wanted-party-lose-during-delhi-elections-ashok-gehlot-1647108-2020-02-16

"BJP leaders wanted their party to lose during Delhi elections, says Ashok Gehlot"

He was not clear why the BJP leadership wanted such a loss.

In Bihar, famous political strategist and former JD(U) vice-president Prashant Kishor who fell out with JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar over his support of AAP over the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance in Delhi seems to be starting a new movement.     

Prashant Kishor was always a political strategist and not mass leader so not sure where this would go.  Still all things equal he will be working with anti-NDA forces in the upcoming Bihar assembly election later this week.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-prashant-kishor-wants-to-connect-with-1-crore-people-in-bihar-1647730-2020-02-18

"Why Prashant Kishor wants to connect with 1 crore people in Bihar"

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/jyotiraditya-scindia-join-bjp-massive-speculation-17-mlas-reach-bengaluru-119854

Crisis in the INC MP government.  There are signs that INC CM Kamal Nath intra-party rival Jyotiraditya Scindia  might lead his faction over to the BJP.  If so that follows 2019 Karnataka when the JD(S)-INC there fell after defections from both JD(S) and INC over to the BJP.

In both cases I am not sure this actually serves the electoral interests of the BJP but access to power is critical to politicians of all stripes 

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/madhya-pradesh-crisis-live-updates-17-rebel-congress-mlas-put-kamal-nath-government-on-edge-2192556

In MP INC leader Jyotiraditya Scindia  quits INC along with what it seems 19 MLAs.  He is set to join BJP which pretty much means that on the medium run BJP will be back at the helm in MP.

Jyotiraditya Scindia is of royal origins.  His father Madhavrao Scindia was the  last ruling Maharaja of Gwalior.  Madhavrao Scindia's mother Vijaya Raje Scindia joined the BJS in the 1950s and became a key leader of the BJS.  Madhavrao Scindia broke with his family in the 1970s to join INC.  Former BJP CM of  Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje is the aunt of Jyotiraditya Scindia.   Jyotiraditya Scindia is now going to return to the party of his grandmother and aunt.

Floor test for MP government Tuesday 3/17. Most likely CM Kamal Nath INC government will fall as Jyotiraditya Scindia faction of 22 INC MLAs having all resigned.  This would mean a repeat of Karnataka  where a BJP CM would be installed and most if not all 22 INC rebels would be re-nominated by the BJP in their by-election.  The population of MP wanting stability would vote most of these INC rebels turned BJP back in giving the BJP a solid majority. 

What this means for 2023 MP assembly elections are still not clear.  Note that  Jyotiraditya Scindia is really not a mass leader so it is not clear on the long run the BJP is really given an electoral boast by him and his faction joining the BJP.

Coronavirus not affecting elections here yet?

The next big assembly election is in Bihar which is due in Oct so that is some time off.  The AP local election did get delayed by 6 weeks while the MP floor test also got delayed by 10 days or so due to the virus delaying the INC defeat there by a few days.  The overall level of virus infection in India has been quite low so far.

Yes, that has been noted. Climate factors, cases being "undercounted" - or quite possibly both?

https://www.firstpost.com/india/ex-cji-ranjan-gogoi-nominated-to-rajya-sabha-kapil-sibal-compares-former-cji-with-justice-hr-khanna-accuses-him-of-compromising-integrity-8157571.html

ex-Supreme Court Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi who retired from the bench a few months ago have been appointed by the President of India to RS.    Given his role in handing down the Ayodhya judgement the opposition is accusing him and the BJP of having a quid pro quo.

I think it is mostly climate factors.  For sure they do not have many testing kits or are even doing much testing but overall it seems that this is really not going to be a big deal in India.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/madhya-pradesh-floor-test-crisis-kamal-nath-shivraj-singh-chouhan-supreme-court-1657253-2020-03-19

In MP the INC speaker has accepted the resignation of the 16 INC rebel MLAs.  If so then it seems a certainty that the INC government will fall soon and be replaced by a BJP government.   

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/madhya-pradesh-government-floor-test-live-updates-mp-government-crisis-kamal-nath-jyotiraditya-scindia-bjp-congress-latest-news-11584680307808.html

MP INC CM Kamal Nath resigns with 16 rebel INC MLAs resigning and going over to the BJP.    BJP is set to form government.  Former BJP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the front runner to return to become CM again.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/22-rebel-madhya-pradesh-congress-mlas-meet-bjp-chief-in-scindias-presence/articleshow/74749039.cms

22 INC rebels join BJP.  I assume all of them have or will resign and run in a by-election as the BJP candidate.  So just like last year we will have a mini-assembly election in MP in a few months with these 22 by-elections (if not more.)  BJP is destined to win a majority if not vast majority of such by-elections.  The CAA issue will work to the BJP advantage in places like MP.

West Bengal will delay their municipal elections

Modi shut down the country for 21 days to try to slow a possible surge in infections.  In the higher income areas it seems to be working.  The largest impact are of course the informal daily wage cash sector.  Many day laborers which are unable to make a living in the cities are trying to get back home in rural areas.  But with all transportation shut down many of them are walking home over hundreds of miles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRV2T9VL1Qo 

http://www.jankibaat.com/complete-lockdown-has-made-people-more-serious-and-aware-about-covid-19-jan-ki-baat-state-of-nation-survey/16912/

Jan Ki Baat poll shows huge support for Modi regime measures to deal with virus

Approval of government response at 81%
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95% support Modi 21 day lockdown
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46% think the virus is a PRC conspiracy
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only 4% think there will be no impact on economy
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The main weakness of Modi-BJP since the 2019 LS landslide has been the weak economy.  Now this virus not only consolidates support for the regime but also allows Modi to blame an external virus for any economic problems.

As expected, most people are dumbasses in India.

With India slowly headed out of lockdown political activity is expect to increase.  In Bihar where the assembly election is still expected to take place in Oct-Nov of 2020, JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar is seems to have handled the virus crisis poorly.  But RJD also seems to be in crisis where RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and son of jailed Lalu Jadav is facing ever rising resistance within RJD as well as distrust from allies like INC HAM and RLSP.  Furthermore the prospect of a rapprochement between Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav seem as remote as ever.

In such a situation where the Nitish Kumar brand is damaged the BJP might start liking its chances in a BJP (most likely with LJP as an ally) vs JD(U) vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM battle.  RLSP and HAM whose leaders are JD(U) rebels and hostile to Nitish Kumar most likely in such a scenario will re-join the NDA.  In 2010 and 2015 the Nitish Kumar brand was a big plus.  This time around it might become a negative and the BJP will most likely try to find a way to decouple itself from Nitish Kumar and most likely sweep the 2020 Bihar assembly elections.  Main issue for BJP is the lack of a CM face although that can potentially be made up for by using Modi to be the face of the BJP which is effective in elections sometimes when the BJP is not the ruling party.

Former INC Chhattisgarh CM Ajit Jogi and now leader of INC splinter JCC passed away at age 74.  Most likely JCC will now merge back into INC.

What I remember most about Ajit Jogi was his narrow LS loss in 2014 running as the INC candidate.  He was running to regain his old seat of Mahasamund against the BJP incumbent Chandu Lal Sahu.  What Aijt Jogi did was to hire 11 candidates with the same name as his opponent (Chandu Lal Sahu) to run and split the vote.  It almost worked as he lost only 133 worked.

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With the India lock-down winding down hopefully political activity picks up again.  The main events that are coming up soon is a slew of Upper House elections as a bunch of Upper House MPs terms are up.  These elections should increase the relative power of NDA but not get NDA to a majority, yet, in the Upper House. 

Also coming up is a MP mini-assembly election with 24 by-elections.  This necessitated by the INC leader Scindia  defecting with 22 of his faction over to the BJP in March bring the BJP back to power.  Just like Karnataka the BJP is certain to re-nominate the Scindia faction MLAs as BJP candidates with the INC going all out to punish the INC rebels.  BSP will also run its slate of candidate, breaking the old BSP rule of not running in by-elections.  Most likely the BJP will sweep these polls as the voters will be voting for political stability.    Given the relative BJP strength in MP it will be 2-3 election cycles before the INC will have a shot at coming back to power in MP.  The only real hope for INC is 2023 which will be the 9th year of the Modi regime where anti-incumbency might help INC win.  If INC does not win in 2023 it will be another 10 years before it can come back to power in MP.

The virus crisis hit Maharashtra hard and seems to have exacerbated tensions in the SHS-NCP-INC government.     There seems signs that the government might collapse under its own weight although it is not clear what will take its place.  SHS complains that at the ground the NCP is running the government but SHS will get the blame for problems.  INC is frustrated by the low share of spoils and the the performance of the SHS led government and seems to have washed its hands of any results of the government.  It is possible that BJP-NCP will make a deal and form a government or BJP might break either SHS or INC or both.  In the end Rahul Gandhi is the most likely person to pull the plug on this government although perhaps NCP supremo Sharad Pawar might come in to save it.   One way or another I would expect the BJP will not act until the current crisis is over.

Given the perception that the Bihar government under Nitish Kumar mismanaged the migrant worker issue some factions within the BJP have been pushing for a delay of the Oct 2020 assembly elections fearing BJP losses in rural districts dragged down by Nitish Kumar.  This seems to have been turned down by  Nitish Kumar who did not want the election held under Presidential Rule where his administration will not be in position to help JD(U) candidates.

The BJP has mostly accepted that the election will be held on time and have started a massive virtual election campaign online

"BJP set to technology-driven political activities ahead of Bihar polls"
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bjp-set-to-technology-driven-political-activities-ahead-of-bihar-polls/articleshow/76114647.cms

It seems the BJP plan is to have 100K voters reached for every one of the 243 election districts.  This is quite ambitious given that each district usually have around 280K eligible voters and most likely around 160K votes to be cast.

June 19th is the next round of Upper House elections.

Right now the balance of power in the Upper house are

NDA 106 (BJP 77)
Pro-NDA 12 (BJD YSRCP SDF)
UPA 56 (INC 36)
Anti-NDA 49 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)
Vacant 22

19 out of the 22 vacant will be elected on June 19th.

The BJP has up until now, relied on pro-NDA parties to get them over the majority mark.  The BJP is hoping that with these elections and Upper House elections in UP and Uttarakhand in Nov 2020 that NDA can get to a majority on its own.

To that end there has been all sorts of BJP maneuvers in Gujarat where one would expect given the numbers of MLAs the 4 vacant seat would split BJP 2 INC 2 to lure INC MLAs to defect to get it to BJP 3 INC 1.  So far over 8 INC MLAs have resigned since March.  It is said that the going rate for these INC MLAs to defect has been around $3 million each.  INC has moved all their MLAs to a resort in INC ruled Rajasthan.  

I did a back of the envelope projection of Upper House seats at the end of 2020, end of 2021, end of 2022, end of 2023 and end of 2024 making assumptions on how various assembly elections will go and that the current alliance configurations does not change.

I get

End of 2020
NDA 121 (BJP 91)
Pro-NDA 17 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 59 (INC 38)
Anti-NDA 45 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)
Vacant 3

Which would be a bare NDA majority so in de facto terms NDA will need pro-NDA parties to pass bills


End of 2021
NDA 121 (BJP 92)
Pro-NDA 17 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 60 (INC 39)
Anti-NDA 44 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)
Vacant 3
  
Still bare NDA majority so in de facto terms NDA will need pro-NDA parties to pass bills


End of 2022
NDA 115 (BJP 89)
Pro-NDA 20 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 67 (INC 42)
Anti-NDA 43 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)

NDA loses majority as pro-NDA victories in 2016-2017 in various assembly elections gets overturned in newer elections and defectors to BJP come up for re-election and could not win due to lack of BJP MLAs in certain states.  All this more than erases gains the BJP should make based on gains in the 2021 WB assembly election.  The flip side to this is the TN and Kerala 2021 assembly elections will be very pro-UPA while the BJP is expected to lose ground in UP 2022 assembly elections even if it holds on to a majority there.  Diddo for Bihar 2020 assembly elections.


End of 2023
NDA 116 (BJP 90)
Pro-NDA 20 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 68 (INC 43)
Anti-NDA 41 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)

Not much change. NDA still needs pro-NDA parties to pass bills.


End of 2024
NDA 107 (BJP 81)
Pro-NDA 23 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 73 (INC 48)
Anti-NDA 42 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)

NDA loses further ground as new Upper House elections reflect assembly results that tend to revert to the mean from the 2016-2017 pro-NDA assembly election results.

So my projection is that the Modi II regime (2019-2024) most likely will fail in its goal of getting a solid NDA majority during its tenure and will still rely on pro-NDA parties to gets its majority. The alternative is just poaching non-NDA MPs but that will only hurt the BJP image and will not work on the long run.

The "Opposition" and most of its governments has been doing pretty good. 

The divide seems to be more about North-South than ruling-opposition.  JD(U) ruled Bihar and BJP ruled UP did seems to have messed up the migrant worker issue but so have AAP ruled Delhi.  SHS-NCP-INC ruled Maharashtra also seems to have had the largest outbreak.  On the other hand it seems Southern Kerala and TN seems to have handle this crisis fairly well.

It seems that in Manipur INC is about to turn the tables on BJP and topple the BJP government just like BJP did to JD(S)-INC in Karnataka in 2019 and INC in MP earlier this year.

In the 2017 Manipur assembly election the incumbent INC government under CM Okram Ibobi Singh was narrowly defeated but retained the largest party position

INC    28
BJP    21
NPF     4
NPP     4
AITC    1
LJP      1
Ind      1

Due to internal INC factional fighting BJP was able to form the government by roping in all non-INC MLA (including the 1 Muslim Independent).  Later on 8 INC MLAs pledged to support the BJP CM.  1 of the 8 INC MLA has been disqualified for defecting to BJP and the 7 others have lawsuits pending for defection.

Now, right before the Upper House election tomorrow where all Manipur MLA will vote between the BJP and INC candidate the BJP government seems ready to fall.     The 4 NPP MLAs, 1 AITC MLA, and the 1 Muslim independent MLA have withdrawn support from the BJP AND 3 BJP MLAs have resigned.

So the current Manipur house would be

Government
BJP   18  (21 minus 3)
NPF    4
LJP     1
-------------------
        23

INC   20  (28 minus 8 )
NPP    4
AITC   1
Ind     1
------------------------
        26

with the ruling bloc thrown into the minority.  It seems INC ex-CM Okram Ibobi Singh is behind all this with tomorrow's Upper House vote a way to prove his majority by producing a shocking INC victory over BJP.   After that INC might move forward to take over with a new ruling bloc including NPP AITC and the 1 independent.  

What is bizarre about this setup is if it comes to fruition that NPP is a Meghalaya based party where it is the ruling party with BJP support and with the INC as its main rival in the state.  NPF is a Nagaland based party where NPF is allied with INC in opposition to NPF splinter NDPP who is allied with BJP.  The alliance patterns would be inverted in Manipur.  The reason for this is obvious, as INC leader Okram Ibobi Singh has a fairly anti-Naga image and has his base in non-Naga urban Imphal in opposition to rural Manipur where Nagas are more numerous.  Ergo NPF could never go with INC in Manipur while Okram Ibobi Singh is in charge.  On the flip side Okram Ibobi Singh being seen as the non-Naga leader makes it easier for him to poach non-Naga MLAs outside the INC which he seems to be doing.

Tomorrow's result in the Upper House elections for Manipur would be quite exciting.

BJP wins Manipur RS election.  It seems the Manipur speaker allowed 3 INC rebels out of 7 such INC rebels (1 already have been disqualified from the assembly for defection to BJP) to vote in the election even though they were barred by the courts from entering the assembly which in addition to the now pro-INC AITC MLA not voting gave the BJP a narrow victory. So the battle for power in Manipur will go on for a while as the earlier advantage of the INC camp is not what it seemed.

Results coming out for RS elections.  Other than Manipur which last minute shifts indicated a possible INC victory everything else going as expected.

AP  - YSRCP 4  TDP 0
Gujarat - not out yet but most likely BJP 3 INC 1, possible BJP 2 INC 2
Jharkhand - BJP 1 JMM 1 INC 0
MP - BJP 2 INC 1
Manipur - BJP 1 INC 0
Meghalaya - NPP 1 INC 0
Rajasthan - INC 2 BJP 1
Mizoram - not out yet but almost certainly MNF 1 ZPM 0 INC 0

BJP narrowly wins in Gujarat 3-1 over INC in RS elections. 

So with these elections out of the way the RS should be

NDA 115 (BJP 85, AIADMK 9, JD(U) 5, SAD 3, LJP1 , RPI(A) 1, AGP 1, BPF 1, PMK 1, TMC 1, NPP 1, pro-BJP Independent 2, BJP nominated 4)
Pro-NDA 17 (BJD 9, YSRCP 6, SDF 1, MNF 1)
UPA 61 (INC 40, DMK 7, RJD 5, NCP 4, IUML 1,KEC(M) 1, MDMK 1, JMM 1, pro-INC independent 1)
Anti-NDA 49 (AITC 13, SP 8, TRS 7, CPM 5, BSP 4, SHS 3, AAP 3, TDP 1, PDP 2, JD(S) 1, CPI 1,  NPF 1)
Vacant 3

So NDA still just short of majority.  After the UP and Uttarakhand RS elections in Nov then NDA could get to a bare majority but they are unlikely to grow that majority in the future and will most likely lose that majority in 2022.

At this stage in Bihar it is clear it is advantage JD(U)-BJP-LJP due to disarray in the opposition bloc.  Within the RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP alliance there are signs that HAM-VIP will split off due to their objection to RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav (son of jailed RJD supremo Lalu Yadav) being projected as the CM candidate for the opposition alliance.  INC in theory is trying to keep the alliance together but it is clear factions of the INC are also for breaking the alliance with RJD.  The fact is that Lalu Yadav is critical to turning out Dalit-OBC-Muslim vote in favor of RJD but with him behind bars the RJD party is dramatically weaker.  So the real objection to  Tejashwi Yadav is more about the fact that the Lalu magic does not seem to be rub off on his son.

In the meantime former BJP leader Yashwant Sinha who has a JD background and is now more clearly in the opposition camp has come out of semi-retirement to form a new party and seems determined to contest in Bihar.  His yet unnamed party already seems to have picked up a bunch RJD RLSP and HAM rebels and will future split the anti-NDA vote if they contest later this year. 

I guess one good news for the UPA is that JD(U) rebel Prashant Kishor attempt at a third front mostly petered out and will not be a threat to split to the anti-NDA vote.  Most likely Prashant Kishor will join forces with UPA.

Clearly the fact that the JD(U) government has not handled the virus crisis and migrant worker issue well will clearly weight down the NDA vote. But the BJP machine and nationalist appeals based on border clashes with PRC will most overcome this with a hoped for rally around the flag effect later this year.

 

Do you think India should move to direct senate elections like the US or just turn their upper house into the House of Lords

Well, I am against direct election of Senators in the USA and am for a pre-17th Amendment system.  So given that I am much more supportive of the current Indian system for selecting MP for the RS.

In Manipur it seems that BJP managed to get NPP to return to the NDA to back the BJP CM so for now the crisis is over.  I suspect it might flair up again soon.

In Bihar it seems the UPA is not he only alliance with trouble.  There are signs that the JD(U)-LJP rift is growing wider and there are signs that LJP might exit NDA to run separately. 

Most likely LJP is fearful that with JD(U) demanding a seat share similar to the 2010 assembly elections when JD(U)-BJP last ran in an alliance and BJP demanding a 50/50 splint in seats share (similar to the 2019 LS elections) that the LJP seat share will be cut to accommodate these competing demands.  It is under similar circumstances that RLSP left NDA to join UPA in the run up to the 2019 LS elections.   

If so then this is mostly bluff and LJP will calm down once they get a respectable share of seats.  If LJP detects that JD(U) brand is in trouble then they might actually act on these threats.  As a whole with BJP backing Nitish Kumar as the face of NDA the core relationship in NDA (JD(U) and BJP) seems intact and NDA will live and die by the image of Nitish Kumar.  More likely than not it will be enough for a victory later this year.

Looks like after Karnataka and MP, the INC government in Rajasthan might fall.  The INC DCM and strong Rahul Gandhi loyalist Sachin Pilot it seems might defect to BJP with 19 INC MLAs bring down the INC government and installing a BJP government.   Sachin Pilot claims that the INC CM Ashok Gehlot is using state machinery to go after him and his faction within INC

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/rajasthan-political-crisis-congress-kapil-sibal-ashok-gehlot-sachin-pilot-bjp-6502093/
 
The INC high command inability to work out inter-factional battles most likely will lose it another state

Is it wrong to assume that the next state government that the BJP will look to unseat will be Jharkhand?

Unlikely.  Jharkhand JMM and INC are both pretty solid and most likely not breakable.  Clearly the next BJP target would be Maharashtra where the uneasy SHS-NCP-INC alliance could break up due to internal tensions (there are just not enough spoils for 3 large parties to share.)  This could come in the form of BJP breaking SHS or BJP getting NCP to defect over to BJP to form a government. 

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-rajasthan-political-crisis-congress-sacks-sachin-pilot-as-deputy-cm-after-he-snubs-olive-branch/356657

In Rajasthan, INC sacks rebel Sachin Pilot as DCM and head of the Rajasthan INC.  Not sure what  Sachin Pilot's next move is but it is most likely to split the Rajasthan INC.

One big difference between Rajasthan and MP is that in MP, the INC rebel, Jyotiraditya Scindia, did not want to be CM.  He wanted to be nominated to the RS by INC, since he lost his seat in the 2019 LS election,  and was declined.  He went over to the BJP with the understanding that the BJP will nominate him for the RS which they did.  In exchange Jyotiraditya Scindia and his faction of INC MLA resigned to make way for the return of BJP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan.  In Rajasthan  Sachin Pilot  actually want to become CM and seems to be willing to do a deal with BJP to get it.  The problem is 2 time BJP CM Vasundhara Raje (who is actually  Jyotiraditya Scindia's aunt) is still fairly powerful in the Rajasthan BJP and I do not see why she will do all this work to help Sachin Pilot to split the INC, join the BJP, only for him to be CM.  So in many ways this might discourage the Sachin Pilot faction from joining Sachin Pilot in resigning and going over to the BJP since there might not be a deal that both Sachin Pilot and Vasundhara Raje can agree to. 

If so this set of Sachin Pilot moves might be a mock charge to extract more concessions of power from Rajasthan INC CM Ashok Gehlot and INC high command.

Sachin Pilot has ruled out joining hands with BJP which pretty much removes all his leverage but also opens the door for some sort of reconciliation with INC.  Sachin Pilot is pretty close to the Gandhi family as his father joined politics due to being close friends with Rajiv Gandhi.  Unlike  Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sachin Pilot, who is a leader of the Gurjar community has a significant support base in Rajasthan and him leaving INC would be a big blow to INC vote base in Rajasthan.   Jyotiraditya Scindia leaving INC, on the other hand, has fairly limited impact on the long term INC electoral prospects. 

My sense is that all things equal INC will put in some extra effort to get Sachin Pilot back and perhaps compromise by having him play a role away from Rajasthan politics given the mutuial hostilty between Sachin Pilot and INC CM Ashok Gehlot.   Sachin Pilot should look to another example where something like this has worked out.  After the 1995 BJP victory in the Gujarat assembly elections it was a battle between BJP kingpins Shankersinh Vaghela and Keshubhai Patel to become BJP CM.  Narendra Modi was Shankersinh Vaghela sidekick in the early 1990s but their relationship soured by 1995 and Modi backed Keshubhai Patel who eventually prevailed.  Shankersinh Vaghela threatened to bolt the BJP but was persuaded to stay on in the BJP by his loyalists given key posts in the new Gujarat BJP goverment and Modi being exiled to work in the national BJP and away from Gujarat politics.  Modi was really the mastermind behind the 1995 BJP Gujarat assembly election victory but choose to compromise and accept "exile."  Later on Shankersinh Vaghela rebeled anyway and formed a goverment with INC but then had a falling out with INC leading to the 1998 Gujarat assembly elections  which  Keshubhai Patel's BJP swept.   Keshubhai Patel returned to power but mismangement and corruption had led his regime to become very unpopular by 2001.  BJP high command then brought back Modi from exile to take over as Gujart CM in 2001 to replace  Keshubhai Patel the rest was history for Modi.  Sachin Pilot  accepting som sort of "exile" might actually gain him some political capital with INC and might actually to him taking over a post-Gandhi INC in the future.

Some updates from Bihar

1) Nitish Kumar and the JD(U) was embarrassed when a $40 million bridge that JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar just inaugurated a month ago collapsed.  The COVID-19 virus also seems to be getting worse in Bihar weight down on the credibility of the Nitish Kumar brand.

2) LJP has been much more vocal in their attack on JD(U) recently and it seems that they might actually bolt from NDA and potentially go back to RJD-INC which they were aligned with before 2014.

2) There is a faction within the BJP that are clearly getting worried about the election with the Nitish Kumar brand on the decline and are pushing for a delay in the election.  The BJP mainstream seems to want to push ahead with the election figuring that a) The Modi brand will carry the BJP b) JD(U) weakness means BJP can bargin for more seats with the threat of forming a BJP-LJP-HAM-VIP alliance (similar to the 2015 BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM alliance with VIP support) or even a possible BJP-RJD alliance.

3) HAM and VIP seems more and more likely to bolt from UPA alliance and go with BJP, with or without JD(U).  RLSP seems to be negative enough on JD(U) no rule this out although if BJP dumps JD(U) RLSP most likely will shift to ally with BJP

4) INC seems to be facing a possible vertical split with half its MLA going over to JD(U).  These sorts of maneuvers does not necessary means the fracturing of the INC base might reflect more on the desperation of JD(U) to use $$$ to rope in vote winners.  If this were to happen in many ways it adds more problems for JD(U) in seat talks with BJP as now JD(U) just added more seat claimants into its camp that they now have to accommodate.

All in all the situation is quite chaotic and fluid with both camps facing internal problems.  One thing that that BJP and JD(U) must be aware is that they cannot take their 2005 and 2010 assembly election victories for granted.  This time around NDA is facing double anti-incumbency where NDA is the ruling bloc both at the federal and state level.   A history of such elections shows that there are reasons to believe that NDA will underperform.

List of all assembly elections where the NDA is both in power at the federal level and the state level

1998 Rajasthan - BJP defeated by INC
1998 Delhi - BJP defeated by INC
1999 AP/Telangana - TDP-BJP defeats INC but this was held at the same time as LS elections
1999 Karnataka - JD(U)-BJP defeated by INC
1999 Maharashtra - SHS-BJP defeated by INC-NCP
2001 TN - DMK-BJP defeated by AIADMK-INC
2002 Punjab - SAD-BJP defeated by INC
2002 Uttarakhand - BJP defeated by INC
2002 UP - BJP defeated by SP
2002 Gujarat - BJP (led by Modi) defeats INC but only after communal riots
2003 HP - INC defeats BJP
2004 Orissa - BJD-BJP defeats INC but this was held at the same time as LS elections
2017 Gujarat - BJP defeats INC but by less than expected margin
2018 MP - BJP defeated by INC
2018 Rajasthan - BJP defeated by INC
2018 Chhattisgarh - BJP defeated by INC
2018 Haryana - BJP edged out INC but under-performed polls and failed to win majority
2018 Maharashtra - BJP-SHS defeated INC-NCP but under-performed polls  
2019 Jharkhand - BJP defeated by JMM-INC-RJD

So when a NDA state government faces re-election with NDA at the helm at the federal level unless the election was held at the same time as a LS election (1999 AP/Telangana and 2004 Orissa) or had communal riots (2002 Gujarat) the NDA state government is usually defeated or at best barely wins under-performing pre-election polls.  

This is the first time Nitish Kumar will have to lead JD(U) into an election where his alliance is in power at the federal level since 2000 when he was defeated by Lalu Yadav's RJD.  2005Feb 2005Oct and 2010 he led JD(U)-BJP into battle with the UPA in power at the federal level and won.  In 2015 he led JD(U)-RJD-INC into battle with NDA in power at the federal level and won.  Now he will face double anti-incumbancy.

It is for this reason I think BJP anxiety is justified.

With the ongoing unresolved political crisis in Rajasthan, all INC MLAs are locked up in a Jaipur resort.  It seems while there they nothing to do so they are reduced to taking cooking lessons
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Overall things are moving toward a stalemate with the BJP not stepping in to help INC rebel leader Sachin Pilot, Sachin Pilot refusing to back down but would not quit INC either.  BTP which has 2 MLAs have came out to back INC CM Ashok Gehlot. 

So far the BJP has been unusually  inactive in all this.  Leader of RLP, Hanuman Beniwal who is a MP, claims that BJP ex-CM Vasundhara Raje is actually working behind the scenes to help  Ashok Gehlot to beat back Sachin Pilot given her personal animosity toward Sachin Pilot.  Of course RLP is a BJP splinter that split out in the 2018 Rajasthan assembly elections given then BJP leader Hanuman Beniwal rejection of Vasundhara Raje's leadership.  RLP has since made peace with the BJP and ran in 2019 LS election as BJP ally even as Hanuman Beniwal continue to reject Vasundhara Raje.  So Hanuman Beniwal has his own agenda to pushing this narrative.  But the only way this narrative is even viable is the inactivity of the Rajasthan BJP.   Most likely, Vasundhara Raje and the BJP concluded that a)  Sachin Pilot does not have the numbers and b) Sachin Pilot will not yield the CM seat to BJP so there is no point in forming an alliance with Sachin Pilot.

https://theprint.in/politics/sachin-pilot-offered-me-rs-35-crore-to-join-bjp-says-congress-mla/464610/

"Sachin Pilot offered me Rs 35 crore to join BJP, says Congress MLA"

If true the going rate the BJP is willing to pay is around $5 million.

Isn't that corrupt enough to be illegal.

Of course it is.  But there is no proof.  Also $$$ is not enough.  The MLA in question must also view the move as something that will help his or her career, like BJP will nominate them as on the BJP ticket in the by-election AND they are likely to win as a BJP candidate.  The BJP will clearly no call this bribery but will call it a sign on bonus :)  In Karnataka and MP the political equations clearly worked.  Not clear it will work here. Note that the INC MLA in question turned down the deal.

The Rajasthan crisis comes down to two separate legal issues.   

First, Sachin Pilot and his 19 rebel INC MLAs wants time to work out a deal with the BJP and grow their rebellion.  INC CM Ashok Gehlot want to use the anti-defection law to expel them as MLAs as losing 19 INC rebel MLAs is not enough to threaten his majority.  But the courts ruled that since the 19 rebel INC MLAs did not violate the whip the anti-defection law does not apply.  So INC CM Ashok Gehlot want to call the legislature into session and then issue a whip to all INC MLA in a VONC vote.  But the BJP governor is blocking such a move so courts are needed resolve this.

Second,  one of the reasons why INC CM Ashok Gehlot has numbers on his side is last year the entire 6 member BSP delegation defected and merged their caucus into the INC.  Now at this critical juncture BSP is going to the courts saying that this defection is illegal under the anti-defection law because even though all 6 MLA defected which crosses the 2/3 threshold to avoid the anti-defection law since BSP is a national party this is only valid if the entire national BSP merges into INC.  BSP want the court to nullify this merger and then issue a whip to the BSP MLAs to vote against INC CM Ashok Gehlot in the VONC vote. This argument is legally dubious and flies the the face of other precedents in other states.

Still for the INC CM Ashok Gehlot government to to survive these legal rulings will have to go his way.

Given signs that Rahul Gandhi will soon return to the role of INC Prez the battles between the Old Guard (aligned with Sonia Gandhi) and the Young Turks (aligned with Rahul Gandhi) are intensifying within the INC.  If Rahul Gandhi does not take over soon and put a stop to this emerging civil war the INC might actually implode.

Aug 5th will be a huge day for the BJP/RSS.  That day will see the  groundbreaking ceremony of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the final victory of the Hindu nationalist in building the temple which really started as a movement in the 1980s.  The Ram temple movement was key to the rise of the BJP starting in the 1980s.

Also it seems that Lord Ram's Images, Ayodhya Temple Model To Be Displayed At New York's Times Square On August 5
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lord-rams-images-ayodhya-temple-model-to-be-displayed-at-new-yorks-times-square-on-august-5-2271234

 

In Bihar it seems LJP is coming out against elections in Oct 2020 joining ranks of RJD-INC in asking for a delay.  JD(U) is eager for an earlier election before the impact of the virus gets worse but RJD is determined to delay it for the exactly that reason.  LJP coming out for a delay is another sign that LJP might exit from the JD(U)-BJP-LJP alliance.  On the other hand there are signs that HAM might switch back to NDA.

India Today semi-annual Mood of the Nation poll.

Best choice for PM
Modi                 66%
Rahul Gandhi      8%
Sonia Gandhi      5%

Modi miles ahead



Modi's handling of Covid-19 pandemic
Outstanding      29%
Good                48%
Average            18%
Poor                   5%

Was India's response to Covid-19 better or worse than other countries
Better               43%
At Par               48%
Worse                7%

There is a good argument that India's response has been poor in absolute and relative terms.  But India's voters gives the Modi regime high marks.


Rating of INC as opposition party
Outstanding        9%
Good                 35%
Average             32%
Poor                  21%

INC's position poor and not getting any better with infighting.

More details from India Today's MOTN poll

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If LS elections were held now the result would be

           Vote share             Seats
NDA       42%(+1%)       316 (+13)
  BJP        36%(--)            283 (+12)
UPA       27%(-2%)          93 (-15)           
  INC        19%(-1%)         49 (-11)
Rest      31%(+1%)        134 (+2)

Very little change from Jan 2020 poll and a replication of 2019 LS elections with the only difference that SHS is no longer in NDA and will cost NDA/BJP seats

The poll also gamed out how would thinks look if UPA got bigger by bring in more allies
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If 17 opposition parties which includes SP, BSP, TDP, Left Front, AIUDF, RLD etc etc join UPA

NDA will still win but BJP will miss majority by itself

           Vote share         Seats
NDA        42%                301
  BJP          36%                269
UPA         39%               153
  INC          19%                53
Others     19%                 89

If in addition to 17 opposition parties joining UPA, SHS, AITC, and AAP join UPA.  Then NDA narrowly wins majority with UPA beating out NDA in terms of vote share

           Vote share         Seats
NDA        42%                282
  BJP          36%                250
UPA         45%               212
  INC          19%                55
Others     13%                 49

I think it will never work out this way as all these parties vote bases will be hard to merge.   49 does seem large for Others in such a scenario.   I guess it will be BJD YSRCP TRS AIMIM.  I find it hard for these 4 parties to egt to 49 seats.  In such a polarized election I doubt BJD and YSRCP can repeat the 21 and 25 seats they won last time.

Do you think if India adopted UK or CDN style leadership elections, the Gandhi family would still have total control over their party or would they lose a primary

The Gandhi family would win as they are popular within the party

The MOTN poll actually sort of polled this.

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The sum of support for the various Gandhi clan adds up to a near majority.

There is no alternative to the Gandhi clan in the INC.  They, on paper, have national appeal and does not have its political base in any particular state which means they are not a threat to various local INC kinpins.  Their main problem is that their national brand is now far weaker than Modi versus the 2004-2012 period when the Sonia Gandhi brand was fairly strong. 

The best way forward is for INC and the Gandhi clan to recognize the fact that the Gandhi clan can no longer pull in the vote by themselves and run the INC more like a franchise for various local center to center-left political forces.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/news/toi-daily-sachin-pilot-meets-congress-leaders-rahul-gandhi-and-priyanka-gandhi-vadra-rolls-back-his-rebellion/videoshow/77476111.cms

In Rajasthan it seems that INC rebel Sachin Pilot has ended his rebellion after meeting with Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi.  Most likely he could not get the numbers and/or BJP's conditions were to steep.  For now the Rajasthan INC crisis is over.

ECI has made it clear that Bihar assembly election will go ahead most likely in Oct 2020.  Main problem is that the COVID-19 peak in Bihar is expect to be about the same time. There is an argument that perhaps by that time Bihar would be closer to herd immunity so it will not matter.

Now that the Bihar assembly is most likely going to take place by Oct it would be useful to get a sense of what the seat sharing talks are looking like.

In 2015 the seat sharing was

NDA
BJP     157
LJP       42
RLSP    23
HAM     21

UPA
JD(U)  101
RJD     101
INC      41

On the UPA side with JD(U) gone the RJD is looking for a larger share of seats.

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/bihar-election-2020-rjd-congress-agree-on-163-plus-80-formula/2052686/

Seems to indicate that RJD and INC have agreed on a 163-80 split.  Namely RJD will get 163 and then RJD will negotiate with VIP and CPI(ML) to hand out seats out of its 163 quota.  INC is given 80 and will negotiate with HAM, RLSP, and perhaps CPI out of its quota of 80.   On the INC front most likely the split will be INC 40 HAM 20 RLSP 20 although HAM most likely would not accept this and could defect to NDA.  It is not clear if HAM could get a better deal from NDA.  RJD most likely will give VIP 10 and CPI(ML) 10 although the alliance with CPI(ML) will be most likely be partial.

On the NDA side it seems the BJP is looking for at least 102 while JD(U) wants at least 120 with LJP demanding  at least the 42 it got in 2015.  It is clear that these 3 claims are not compatible.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/jd-u-snubs-ljp-says-alliance-in-bihar-is-with-bjp-nda-rift-widens/story-fXDqFAkiiWN9CSzPuVxDAI.html

LJP's demand of 42 seats is clearly not realistic given that the NDA now have 2 large parties (BJP and JD(U)) versus 1 back in 2015.  It is likely that LJP will defect from NDA although it would not be clear if LJP will join UPA or go it alone.  If HAM joins NDA then it is more likely LJP will join UPA since both parties claim to be "the Dalit party" and any one alliance cannot have two "the Dalit party."  In 2015 this was clearly a problem that LJP-HAM rivalry dogged the NDA campaign.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/rjd-cong-finalise-seat-sharing-deal-manjhi-s-ham-not-happy/story-frO6cHWG4M4N1RupprX3WP.html

Seems to indicate the RJD-INC deal in Bihar is RJD 152 INC 91 as opposed to RJD 163 INC 80.  It seems RJD will allocate 30 seats (!!) to VIP and a few to CPI(ML) as a part of a likely tactical alliance.  INC will keep 42 out of the 91 for itself and allocate 49 to RLSP HAM and CPI where I assume it will be something like RLSP 23 HAM 20 CPI 5.  It seems the only UPA ally that is unhappy is HAM and according to

https://english.newstracklive.com/news/patna-jeetan-ram-manjhi-party-hampraising-cm-nitish-what-a-sign-for-chirag-pas-wan-brvj-mc25-nu870-ta870-ta277-1112601-1.html

HAM is warming up to Nitish Kumar as LJP is getting more hostile with the chances of these two parties swapping places becoming more likely by the day.

Main problem for UPA is that if LJP leaves NDA it is reactivity easier for NDA to accommodate HAM as JD(U)-BJP will most likely allocate it 20-25 seats allowing both BJP and JD(U) to contest 100+ seats.  If LJP joines UPA then they will demand 40 seats at least and RJD will have to eat more into its quota to accommodate LJP.

In Bihar, as expected HAM exits from UPA mostly due to not getting the number of seats it wants.  Not clear where HAM will end up.  Going it alone would be suicide but trying to join NDA would mean it would not get that many seats in NDA (at most 20 which is around what it would get if it would have stayed in UPA or even less.)  Also given the HAM-LJP rivalry over being THE DALIT PARTY there is no way LJP would accept HAM entering NDA.  But with LJP also likely to exit NDA unless it gets it quota of seats LJP could also exit.  Given HAM was really a JD(U) splinter perhaps the best way forward is for former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi to swallow his pride and arrange for HAM to merge HAM back into JD(U) by accepting the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi's former leader Nitish Kumar of JD(U).

All things equal this makes seat sharing arrangements in UPA much easier and it would now be likely that CPI and CPI(ML) can be accommodated.  Still LJP might come knocking soon to join UPA and then the tussle over seat sharing will begin again.

will bjp win up 2022 and do u think modi will run in 2024? if not will it be amit or yogi

My guess for the significant assembly elections over the next few years

2020 Bihar - Narrow incumbent JD(U)-BJP victory over RJD-INC. 
2021 WB - Incumbent AITC defeats BJP with INC and Left Front totally marginalized.  WB would have gone from a Left Front-INC bipolar state in 1998 to a AITC-BJP bipolar state in 2021.
2021 TN - DMK-INC victory over incumbent AIADMK-BJP
2021 Assam - Narrow incumbent BJP-AGP-BPF victory over INC with tactical alliance with AIUDF.  Anti-CAA AASU-AJYCP is likely to form a new party and could throw the election to INC if they form a tactical alliance with INC
2021 Kerala - INC led UDF defeats Left Front led incumbent LDF
2021 J&K - JKN-INC defeats BJP with JKN sweeping Kashmir and INC with JKN support sweeping Muslim areas in Jammu while BJP sweep Hindu part of Jammu
2022 Punjab - SAD-BJP narrowly defeats incumbent INC. 
2022 Uttarakhand - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 UP - incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over a resurgent SP
2022 HP - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 Gujarat - INC narrowly defeats incumbent BJP
2023 Karnataka - INC defeats incumbent BJP.   
2023 MP - Incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over INC
2023 Rajasthan - BJP defeats incumbent INC
2023 Chhattisgarh - Incumbent INC wins re-election over BJP
2023 Telangana - TRS win re-election over both INC and BJP that split the anti-TRS vote

As for 2024 LS elections on paper Modi should step down and hand the BJP reigns to Amit Shah.  Usually after a landslide victory like 2019 previous Indian rulings parties overreach their mandate and is face with an unexpected defeat in the next election (1977 and 1989).  So far given the COVID-19 crisis and PRC border dispute where aggressive government action is viewed in a positive way by the electorate the BJP seems to be avoiding that fate even though 2024 is far away.  INC's weak leadership under Rahul Gandhi clearly will also help BJP.  If Modi can operate the BJP in a way to help Amit Shah lead the BJP to victory in 2024 then he will go down in Indian history as the most consequential PM with the exception of Nehru.  A lot could still go wrong like Modi trying to stay on for a third term or Amit Shah not having the charisma like Modi but the most likely future is a Amit Shah led BJP victory in 2024.

Do you think bjp will make inroads in the south, imo they have to because it’ll serve as a buffer when they eventually lose seats in the Hindi heartland

Given the BJP political paradigm is now about building an ethno-state based on the Indo-Aryan Hindu identity there is very little chance the deep South (TN and Kerala) will vote for BJP in large numbers.  Karnataka whose Kannada is somewhat sanskritized is more open to BJP while there is a chance of AP and Telegana which speaks Telegu with some level of Sanskritization could also be open to voting for BJP in larger numbers.  In the deep South the BJP can only count on finding local allies using its clout at the Federal level.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bihar-assembly-elections-nitish-kumars-party-jd-u-wont-gain-anything-tej-pratap-on-father-in-laws-move-2283301

3 rebel RJD MLAs join JD(U) as election nears.  One of the rebel RJD MLAs is Chandrika Rai who is the estranged father-in-law of current RJD leader Tej Pratap Yadav (son of Lalu Yadav).     Tej Pratap Yadav got married to the daughter of key RJD kingpin Chandrika Rai in an arranged marriage in 2018.  Within a few months he was demanding a divorce, something his jailed father Lalu Yadav forbade.  Out of anger Tej Pratap Yadav acted against his father-in-law and pretty much drove him out of the party and now into JD(U).

If you go by these articles

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bjp-may-soon-begin-seat-sharing-talks-with-allies-in-bihar/story-cVoaIA01R5fjSLTFV3dtIO.html

http://www.asianage.com/india/politics/230820/bjp-jdu-ljp-trurn-allies-for-bihar-assembly-elections.html

It seems that despite everything NDA will be JD(U)-BJP-LJP-HAM.  The seat sharing formula will be JD(U)-BJP share seats 50/50 with HAM getting some seats (7??) from the JD(U) quota and BJP giving LJP some seats (LJP is asking for 42) out of its quota.

I will be very impressed if the NDA pull this off.  I find it hard to believe HAM will accept 7 seat as they will want at least 20.  I also find it hard to believe that the BJP will accept a 50/50 formula but where BJP has to allocate seats out of its quota to LJP as it is clear that LJP will want and get a lot more seats than HAM.  Such a formula could trigger a revolt in the BJP.

I am also convinced that Nitish Kumar got HAM to come over to NDA for the explicit purpose of driving out LJP by making HAM the NDA face for Dalits.

It is not 100% clear to me that election will even take place in October.  There are rumors that the RJD-INC alliance might break apart as the Upper Caste faction within INC are pushing for INC to run separately from RJD to recapture the old INC Upper Caste vote from the BJP.  If this were to take place I can see the BJP

a) Breaking its alliance with JD(U) to make it a 4 way BJP-LJP vs RJD-RLSP-VIP vs JD(U)-HAM vs INC battle.  In such as case I can even see RLSP going over to BJP.
b) Use the COVID-19 crisis to push out the election beyond Nov 2020 so the election will be held with Bihar under Presidential Rule which in essence mean the local Bihar state machinery will pass from JD(U) to the Federal government (aka BJP.)  With the local authorities under the BJP control the BJP can then win the 4 way battle.

In fact I think the reason why LJP has not broken with NDA and gone over to UPA is that it is waiting and watching to see if this 4 way battle scenario comes to pass.

The best way to figure out what will happen is to wait for ECI to declare an election date.  If the date is before Nov 2020 then the JD(U)-BJP alliance will remain intact and the main unknown is if LJP will stick with NDA or go over to the UPA.

A 4 way battle will be fun.  If I had to guess the BJP-LJP should emerge as the largest bloc but not clear if they will form a majority.  I recon it would be something like

BJP-LJP             35%
RJD-RLSP-VIP    30%
JD(U)-HAM        20%
INC                   10%

with the BJP victory margin even larger if RLSP goes over toe BJP-LJP.  What is holding back a JD(U)-BJP alliance despite having a larger core voting bloc and a very popular Modi is the anti-incumbency built up against Nitish Kumar after 15 years of being CM (with a brief interlude when now HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi being a proxy CM for Nitish Kumar).  BJP running without JD(U) is actually better for the BJP this election cycle.  Main risk is that a BJP-JD(U) split will let in RJD-INC.  But if RJD and INC would split up that would be the signal for the BJP to strike.  The main conflict within BJP is really between pro- and anti- Nitish Kumar factions so we will not know the result until ECI comes out with their decision on exact election date.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/over-20-top-congress-leaders-write-to-sonia-gandhi-over-leadership-crisis-2283866

Sonia Gandhi resigns as interim INC President.  Most likely the result of internal INC tussle between pro-Sonia Old Guards versus pro-Rahul Young Turks.  Now there will be pressure for Sonia Gandhi to rescind her resignation and pressure for Rahul Gandhi to resume his role as INC President.   

For me it does not matter who the leader is but it is about how the party is run.  I think the way forward for INC is for it and the Gandhi family to accept that the Gandhi family does not pull in votes and push for decentralization.  INC should be run like a franchise where for various local ambitious Center to Center-Left politicians INC can act as a platform and ready made name recognition to glue their vote base or cause to.    While this does not win any LS elections it at least allows INC to survive on the local level.  Eventually the BJP, after 5 10 or 15 years, will implode and at least the INC will be the largest alternative to sweep back in.  To do that they will need a leader that is charismatic and cut throat which is clearly not Rahul Gandhi.  But in the meantime the Gandhi's can work to ensure the survival of INC over the coming few election cycles.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/after-7-hour-cwc-meet-congress-promises-change-in-6-months-still-keeps-sonia-gandhi-as-interim-chief-1714687-2020-08-25

"After 7-hour CWC meet, Congress promises change in 6 months, still keeps Sonia Gandhi as interim chief"

So it is kicking can down the road it is. 

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pranab-mukherjee-ex-president-and-congress-veteran-dies-in-delhi-hospital/story-sKOIeIEmCyY9OcGziScT9I.html

Pranab Mukherjee, ex-president and Congress veteran, dies in Delhi hospital

He was Prez of India 2012-2017 and was the leader of WB INC for years. He actually created an INC splinter RSC in 1986 after a blowup with Rajiv Gandhi, did badly in the 1987 WB assembly election,  merged it back into INC in 1989 right before the 1989 LS elections after reconciling with Rajiv Gandhi.

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/india-gdp-data-1st-quarter-live-updates-coronavirus-lockdown-6577361/

India Q2 GDP fell 23.9% !!! YoY which has to be the worst Q2 GDP result of any significant economy in the world.  There is reason to believe it is worse than this since GDP figures tend to capture more of the formal sector and we know that the ill advised draconian lockdown of March-April clearly hit the informal sector based on migrant laborers more.

Still Modi is riding high which teach us something about leadership.  Machiavelli pointed out that a leader must be seen as making decisive decisions.  Modi's draconian lockdown in March-April might have been an economic disaster but it was a political boon for Modi as it projected Modi as a decisive leader. 

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/manjhi-to-join-hands-with-nitish-tomorrow-may-get-nine-seats/articleshow/77877850.cms

As expected, HAM joins NDA although it is more like HAM joins alliance with JD(U).  The alliance pattern in NDA seems now to be an alliance based on commutative property.  Namely HAM has an alliance with JD(U) which has an alliance with BJP which has an alliance with LJP.  JD(U)-HAM and LJP most likely do not view each other as allies and at most non-enemies with a common ally of BJP.  This is a very unstable alliance and could crack anytime

It seems HAM will get at least 9 seats out of the JD(U) quota with JD(U) and BJP each getting half the seats and BJP sharing with LJP out of its quota.  I find this hard to believe as this means BJP will contest a lot less seats than JD(U) since LJP will demand 41 seats at least and I cannot see how they go below 30 while HAM most likely can get 10 at most from JD(U).  Such a situation could lead to a revolt in the BJP.  The only alternative is for BJP to squeeze the LJP seat count toward 10 which will only mean LJP leaving NDA.  If BJP can accept JD(U)-BJP splitting seats 50/50 and them accommodate LJP without LJP bolting and avoid a BJP rebellion then the BJP deserves to win this election. 

https://www.hindustantimes.com/bihar-election/bihar-assembly-elections-65-by-polls-due-in-other-states-to-be-held-simultaneously-eci/story-qsNXKCBdhtJBtBKA8buDdO.html

ECI has indicated that 65 outstanding by-elections and Bihar assembly elections will be held at the same time without indicating when that will be.  Given the Bihar assembly elections has to held by Nov it is most likely it will be Oct.

The 65 by-elections included

10 in Gujarat - mostly INC MLAs that resigned to join BJP in order to give BJP a 3-1 win in the most recent RS election versus 2-2
27 in MP - almost all INC MLAs that resigned to join BJP and bring down the INC government
13 in Manipur - mostly INC MLs but a few BJP MLAs that resigned as part of a BJP civil war and BJP-INC war over control of the current BJP government
8 in UP - mostly BJP MLA that have died, elected as MP or disqualified

rest scattered across various states.

So the MP mini assembly election will be held at the same time as Bihar assembly election 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/chirag-paswan-slams-nitish-kumar-ahead-of-ljp-meet-to-decide-ties-with-jdu-in-bihar-polls/articleshow/77964600.cms

"Chirag Paswan slams Nitish Kumar ahead of LJP meet to decide ties with JD(U) in Bihar polls"

Looks like LJP will be making a call soon if they are going to stay in NDA.  The escalation of hostilities between JD(U) and LJP made a huge jump once HAM entered into NDA and it was intimidate in terms of war of wards.  After HAM entered NDA, LJP threatened to run candidates against JD(U) while HAM threatened to run candidates against LJP which makes a mockery of this alliance.  Unless BJP can come up with a bunch of concessions to LJP more likely than not LJP will exit NDA if for nothing else than for image and face reasons.

So 27 out of the 230 MP assembly seat will also see by-elections which makes it a mini-assembly election for MP.  25 out of the 27 are INC rebels of the Jyotiraditya Scindia faction that went over to the BJP bring down the MP INC government.  The BJP will be running almost all the INC rebels as the BJP candidate.  In 2018 the results in these 27 seats were

                       Contest       Won        Vote share
BJP                     27              1             36.28%
BJP rebels            4               0               2.39%
INC                    27             26             47.32%
BSP                    25               0              8.06%

The BSP has significant in about half of these seats and in a first in decades the BSP will contest these by-elections which is clearly bad news for INC.

My rough guess for result will be something like
         
             Win       Vote share
BJP        19              49%
INC         8               43%

mostly because a good part of the 2018 INC vote would migrate over to the BJP since the local INC MLAs have gone over to the BJP.  It will not be a wipeout because the economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown will play a role to weaken BJP support.

At the LJP meeting it seems LJP has decided to contest up to 143 out of the 243 seats in Bihar without making a clear break with JD(U).   It seems behind the scenes party patriarch Ram Vilas Paswan is still working to try to keep LJP within the NDA while those around LJP leader Chirag Paswan are for making a break.  JD(U) reiterated that JD(U) did not have an alliance with LJP in 2005 2010 and 2015 assembly elections and that if LJP is stay in the NDA it will have to accept the leadership of JD(U) and accept Nitish Kumar as the NDA CM candidate. 

The BJP is also working behind the scenes to try to keep LJP within the alliance.  RJD is already making signals that LJP would be welcomed to join UPA.  It is also possible that if LJP does not get a deal that it likes it could instead join up with BJP rebel Yashwant Sinha's UDA alliance or form an alliance with RJD splinter JAP in some sort of third front arrangement. 

The core issue here is this election will most likely be Nitish Kumar's last and as soon as he leaves the political scene the JD(U) will most likely fall apart.  Parties like BJP RJD and LJP area all trying to maneuver to pick up the biggest share of the JD(U) once it does fall apart sometime around or right before 2025.  LJP has to make a call on if staying with the BJP with a share of power but without grassroots organization gives it a chance to eat into the JD(U) in 2025 or will growing its grassroots even without power will put it in the best position to eat into the JD(U) in 2025.
 

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/monsoon-session-parliament-gets-down-to-business-under-new-normal-120091401304_1.html

At least 27 MPs have COVID-19.  This is out of 543+254 = 797 MP
That would be an infection rate of around 3.5%

https://zeenews.india.com/india/big-twist-in-bihar-assembly-election-lalu-yadavs-estranged-daughter-in-law-aishwarya-rai-may-contest-against-husband-tej-pratap-yadav-2308538.html

Big twist in Bihar Assembly election: Lalu Yadav's estranged daughter-in-law Aishwarya Rai may contest against husband Tej Pratap Yadav

It seems RJD leader Tej Pratap Yadav's estranged wife Aishwarya Rai might run against her husband as the JD(U) candidate. 

Tej Pratap Yadav married Aishwarya Rai who is the daughter of key RJD leader Chandrika Rai with great fanfare in 2015

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(2015 wedding with Lalu Yadav (temporary let out of jail), JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar, and LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan with the couple)

Within 6 months the couple's relationship blew up with Tej Pratap Yadav demanding a divorce and his father Lalu Yadav refusing to allow it.   In 2019 LS election Chandrika Rai nominated to run on the RJD ticket over the objection of Tej Pratap Yadav who actively worked to undermine his father-in-law's election campaign.  Chandrika Rai lost in the Modi wave.

In early 2020 Chandrika Rai finally defected to JD(U).  Now his daughter Aishwarya Rai might end up as the JD(U) candidate to run against her husband in this ongoing family drama.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bihar-election-jdu-looks-to-contest-115-seats-wants-bjp-to-fight-128-accommodate-ljp-6600402/

It seems JD(U) is proposing the seats are split BJP 128 JD(U) 115 with BJP then allocating from its quota to LJP while JD(U) allocating from its quota to HAM.  HAM will get something like 7-9 seats and there is no way LJP will accept anything less than 40 so what the JD(U) is proposing is the BJP contesting some 20+ seats less than JD(U).  No way BJP accepts this without a mass revolt within BJP.  How the BJP will need to manage JD(U)'s need to contest more seats than BJP, LJP's demands and internal pressure to contest a lot of seats will be a test of Bihar BJP's balancing skills.   If they poll it off they deserve to win this upcoming assembly election.

Bihar election schedule announced

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Results will be Nov 10th

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ready-to-be-in-grand-alliance-if-rashtriya-janata-dal-leadership-changes-rashtriya-lok-samata-partys-upendra-kushwaha-2300975

There are signs that RLSP is not happy with its seat allocation and Tejashwi Yadav being the CM candidate and could exit the UPA.  Similar noises are also coming from VIP.  Main problem is running separately would mean wipeout for these two parties and NDA will for sure not take them.  On possibility is if LJP exits NDA or if BJP breaks up with JD(U) then perhaps RLSP or VIP  could end up with NDA.  Until then these noises most likely are schemes of getting more seats in seat sharing talks.

The Quint data on Bihar caste breakdown

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RJD is based on Yadavs and JD(U) is based on  Kurmi.  BJP draws its strength from Upper Castes and the trader based Baniya.  INC also has some residual strength with Upper Castes.  LJP and HAM are Dalit based parties.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/sad-ends-alliance-with-bjp-over-farm-bills-6617248/

In Punjab one of NDA's most long time BJP ally SAD leads NDA over new farm reform laws.  In Haryana INLD splinter and BJP ally JJP it seems might be doing the same. 

These new farm reform legislation is actually a very good idea as it allows farmers to sell across state lines and not be bound to sell at specified markets controlled by the various farmer organizations.  In Punjab and Haryana SAD and JJP are very integrated into the local farmer organizations and this reform law strikes at their monopoly over farmer economic activity.  In reality these farmer organizations play a  necessary role like transporting the farm produce to the farmer markets just like futures traders play a necessary role of price stabilization.    Still now the reforms the BJP is pushing for is putting it into conflict with its allies in Northwest India.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/rlsp-holds-seat-sharing-talks-with-bjp/articleshow/78339532.cms

In Bihar it seems RLSP has left UPA and are in seat sharing talks with the BJP.   If RLSP does join abroad NDA then within the NDA it seems there are now two sub-blocs: JD(U)-HAM and BJP-LJP-RLSP. This whole thing does not make sense as I find it impossible all these parties can come to an agreement on how to share out 243 seats.  If RLSP does get a seat sharing deal with BJP then it is another sign that BJP and JD(U) might part ways for 2020 assembly elections.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/bihar-assembly-elections-2020/bihar-elections-congress-gives-rjd-ultimatum-on-seats/articleshow/78341686.cms

In the meantime, INC is pretty much demanding RJD accommodate INC in around 70-75 seats or else INC is ready to go it alone.  Part of the reason why INC could be doing this is INC sense that the election will be a 3 way contest (JD(U) vs BJP vs  RJD) and in such a situation INC going on its own becomes more viable ergo it is going to racket up its price to go along with RJD.

Hopefully the alliance math will become more clear in a few days.

C-Voter poll on Bihar

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              Seats     Vote share
NDA        151           41.9%
UPA          74           34.1%
Others      18           24.0%

Best CM candidate

JD(U) Nitish Kumar         30.9%
RJD Tejashwi Yadav         15.9%
BJP Sushil Modi                9.2%
RJD Lalu Yadav                8.3%
LJP Ram Vilas Paswan       6.5%
INC Tariq Anwar               2.1%

Pre-election polls just as the polls are announced tend to overestimate the ruling party.   This sort of poll seems to indicate a narrow NDA victory.  With 24.2% of polled being in favor of a RJD CM candidate shows the RJD base is mostly intact.

http://www.uniindia.com/news/east/bihar-assembly-polls-rjd-offers-50-seats-to-congress-25-to-left-parties/2179560.html

In Bihar, with RLSP gone from UPA, the latest RJD offer seems to be RJD 150 INC 50 Left parties (CPI CPM CPM-ML) 25 with the rest going to VIP and JMM.   This is despite an INC ultimatum that INC contest around 70-75 seats or INC is out.  The 25 seats to Left parties seems large and not proportionate to the limited number of seats where they have any real strength.  CPI-ML might have some strength in around 10 seats and CPI/CPM has some strength in perhaps a couple of seats each.  I  suspect a lot of these 25 seats are BJP or JD(U) strongholds non-win seats. 

The C-Voter survey has some data that should make the BJP jump.

56.7% are angry at Nitish Kumar government and want him out
29.8% said they are angry at  Nitish Kumar government  but do not want him out

So nearly 88% of the voter base are angry at Nitish Kumar government.  There is a risk that the BJP might be "Shackled to a corpse" like Ludendorff commented about Germany's alliance with Austria-Hungary in WWI. 

What is going on here is that RJD Tejashwi Yadav is not seen as a viable alternative to Nitish Kumar which is the basis behind JD(U)-BJP's lead over RJD-INC.  Still even if JD(U)-BJP comes back to power it is clear that Nitish Kumar brand has been exhausted and really cannot continue future.  The BJP should really consider running separately from JD(U).

For the 28 by-elections in MP it is assumed that for 26 of them the BJP will field the INC defectors.  Out of the 28 seats INC already announced 24 candidates.  7 of them are defectors from the BJP and 2 are defectors from BSP.  So for at least 7 out of the 28 elections we will see the same candidates from the BJP and INC but with the candidates reversed.

In Bihar it seems BJP-RLSP talks has broken down and RLSP has announced it will run in a separate front allied with BSP.  This makes it more likely that somehow BJP can get JD(U) and LJP to come to an agreement to form a common front. Having to accommodate RLSP and prevent BJP rebellions is just not possible while making sure JD(U) and LJP are satisfied.   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hathras_gang_rape_and_murder

The gang rape of a Dalit girl by a gang of Upper Caste men in Hathras of UP and alleged coverup by the police followed by the death of the girl has led to mass Dalit protest in UP and elsewhere.  This is coming at a bad time for the BJP with elections in Bihar and mini-assembly elections in MP where the Dalit vote will be critical to victory.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bihar-assembly-polls-tejashwi-to-lead-alliance-rjd-to-contest-144-seats-congress-gets-70/articleshow/78463343.cms

In Bihar UPA deal struck.  It seems RJD backed down and agreed to INC at 70 seats.  The seat sharing seems to be

RJD       144
INC         70
CPI(ML)   19
CPI           6
CPM          4

They also claim that JMM and VIP will be brought onboard.  I guess RJD-INC will distribute some from their quota to JMM and VIP.  So this deal is not really 100% yet.

RLSP-BSP will run as a third front and in the NDA side LJP will make a call today on if they will continue in NDA.  Even if LJP dose not I am sure they will not run in seats that BJP are running but go all out to run in JD(U) seats and in some cases running Upper Caste candidates to try to win the BJP vote.  One has to wonder if this ends up being the cause if LJP is just a BJP agent to cut into the JD(U) seat count to try to avoid any chances of  a post election JD(U)-INC alliance.

Updates on Bihar

1) https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bihar-election-nda-bjp-jdu-ljp-seat-sharing-6700395/

On the NDA side, it seems it will be JD(U) and BJP to contest 119 each with HAM to contest 5 with the BJP allocating from its quota to LJP.  It does not matter that much as the BJP most likely can part with at most 20-25 and LJP will accept nothing less than 35.

As such

2) https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bihar-assembly-polls-chirag-paswan-ljp-to-meet-over-bihar-polls-may-announce-candidates-2304894

It seems LJP will contest alone.  Although most likely LJP will not contest against BJP but will contest JD(U) and HAM.  LJP's strategy is to try to cash in on the pro-Modi but anti-Nitish Kumar vote (aka BJP vote) in seats that the BJP is not running.  LJP is delaying formally announcing this mostly because I suspect a good part of the LJP MPs are fearful that LJP might up getting kicked out of the NDA at the federal level.  Chirag Paswan has to calm them down that this move only means LJP leaves NDA at the Bihar assembly level but not at the federal level.

3) One the UPA side it seems VIP was not happy with the 12 seats it got (it wanted 25 and VIP leader    Mukesh Sahani being made DCM candidate) and will exit UPA.  VIP claims it will try to join NDA but that is unlikely as it will get at most 4-5 seats from NDA at this point.  It might end up running with RLSP-BSP alliance. 

3) On RLSP it seems that a week or two ago  ago RLSP wanted 20+ seats from UPA but RJD was only willing to part with 8-9 seats given RJD's assessment of RLSP base.  RLSP went to talk to BJP and got an even smaller offer ergo it decided to go with a Third Front approach forming an alliance with BSP.  This seems to have triggered some defections of key leaders in RLSP and BSP to RJD as many think this election will end up being fairly bi-polar in terms election winners.

In Bihar

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/mukesh-sahniled-vip-to-contest-all-243-seats-in-bihar/1948473

VIP will contest at 243 seats as it is clear they will get near nothing from NDA in terms of seats.

What is funny about this is whole affair is that at the UPA press conference where the seat sharing arraignments were announced VIP leader Mukesh Sahani was in attendance and even publicly backed the seat sharing results

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(Mukesh Sahani is on the far left of the picture)

But at the same press conference he then held a separate meeting with the media saying that RJD backstabbed him and that VIP will exit UPA.

And within a couple of days in another press conference VIP leader Mukesh Sahani (who backed NDA in 2015 Bihar assembly elections before defecting to UPA for the 2019 LS elections) announced in a similar victory  press conference he just attend with the UPA that VIP will contest alone.

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The fun begins already in Bihar

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bihar-tejashwi-tej-booked-after-ex-rjd-mahadalit-leader-planning-to-independently-contest-election-shot-dead/articleshow/78477394.cms

"Tejashwi Yadav, Tej Pratap Yadav booked after ex-RJD mahadalit leader planning to independently contest election shot"

A RJD leader Shakti Kumar Mallik was shot Sunday.  It seems he was planning to rebel and run as a independent. RJD leader Tejaswhi Yadav (RJD leader and UPA CM candidate), Tej Pratap Yadav(brother of Tejaswhi Yadav, son of Lalu Yadav, and a on and off again RJD rebel) , Anil Kumar Sadhu (RJD leader but also son-in-law of LJP patriarch Ram Vilas Paswan as well as brother-in-law of LJP leader Chirag Paswan,  He rebelled against LJP in 2015 and joined RJD)

Even if this murder is politically motivated most likely they cannot it on RJD high command.  Still being accused of murder is not a good look for the RJD leader and UPA CM candidate as the campaign starts.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bihar-assembly-elections-2020-ljp-115555112.html

"Bihar Assembly Elections 2020: LJP to Field Candidates Against JD(U), Breaks Alliance With Nitish Kumar"

As expected LJP leaves NDA in Bihar but will not break its alliance with BJP.  So it will run candidates against JD(U)-HAM but not BJP.  This will clearly cause a rift in the JD(U)-BJP alliance as LJP will try run as a de facto BJP candidate in JD(U)-HAM seats running in the name of Modi.  LJP claims that after the election BJP-LJP will form a government. 

This could trigger anger on the JD(U) base in BJP seats and drift away from BJP.  In many ways this is worse for the NDA than a complete LJP break.  At least then the pro-NDA voter can just vote JD(U)-BJP-HAM and be fairly united in their vote.  Now the NDA will face splinters in its base at a time that Nitish Kumar is not that popular.

Now it seems the election will be

JD(U)-BJP-HAM vs LJP (tactical alliance with BJP) vs RJD-INC-CPI(ML)-CPI-CPM-JMM vs RLSP-BSP vs VIP it is time to handicap the race

1) JD(U)-BJP-HAM clearly have the larger social base assuming HAM can bring in a chunk of the Dalit vote and from that point of view would give it the edge.  A lot will depends on candidates.  BJP has hold on the Upper Caste which would be difficult to dislodge if BJP is in the fray.  When JD(U) is in the fray it seems both INC and LJP plans to try to run Upper Caste candidates to eat into the BJP vote.  The JD(U) plan is to get Modi to campaign for JD(U) to pull in the Upper Caste vote for JD(U).

2) From a CM candidate point of view it is JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar vs RJD Tejashwi Yadav.  There is a lot of anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar but  Tejashwi Yadav is not seen as credible so it is JD(U)-BJP-HAM edge here more from a TINA point of view.  Tejashwi Yadav who is 31 is trying to make a bid for the youth vote although LJP's Chirag Paswan who is 38 is trying to do the same.  Modi is pretty popular with the youth as well and JD(U)-BJP-HAM will try to use that to its advantage.

3) The Hathras gang rape of a Dalit girl followed by attempted coverup has riled up the Dalit movement across Northern India and will clearly hurt the BJP.  At this stage it is damage control and JD(U)-BJP-HAM hope that any anti-BJP Dalit votes are splintered and not concentrated on RJD-INC bloc.

4) Various smaller parties will clearly run and cut into the votes of the bigger blocks.  RLSP will hope to cut into the Kurmi vote that is aligned with JD(U).  LJP clearly want to keep its Dalit vote base.  VIP will cut into the lower OBC Mulla vote.  RJD splinter JAP would want to cut into the Yadav vote and AIMIM clearly will want to cut into the Muslim vote.  All these smaller parties in the fray most likely hurts RJD-INC bloc more than the JD(U)-BJP bloc but that is assuming that Nitish Kumar still has a positive image like in 2005 2010 2015.  This time around it might not be so easy.

5) The role of how the BJP and JD(U) base can merge is seriously compromised by the LJP split while backing BJP.  This could create a rift between the JD(U) and BJP vote bases and will clearly hurt JD(U) more. 

6) RJD CM candidate Tejashwi Yadav being accused murder just as the campaign starts clearly is not good but most likely will have a minor impact.

All things equal as long as JD(U) and BJP bases could fuse and the anti-Nitish Kumar not consolidate JD(U)-BJP-HAM is most likely headed for victory but the scale of victory will most likely be small.

Bihar voting phases map

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https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/bihar-rjd-denies-ticket-rape-accused-gives-it-to-their-wives-1728488-2020-10-05

"Bihar: RJD denies ticket to rape-accused, gives it to their wives"

RJD claims they will only run "clean" candidates this time.  So a couple of RJD MLAs accused of rape were dropped.  Instead their wives were nominated.

Last minute alliance shifting are moving in favor of NDA

VIP, which was expected to run by itself, joined NDA after LJP dropped out and will be given 11 seats out of the BJP quota.  

So NDA seat sharing is

JD(U)   115
BJP      110
VIP        11 (from BJP quota of 121)
HAM        7 (from JD(U) quota of 122)

This is a fairly positive seat share distribution as JD(U) remains nominally the senior partner but BJP contests almost as many seats as JD(U) which should be able to calm down internal JD(U) and BJP pressure.

One problem here is some BJP leaders in seats given to JD(U) are "defecting" to LJP and running for LJP.  If more of these "defections" take place it could break on the ground JD(U)-BJP collaboration

On the UPA side, even though RJD was suppose to give seats out of its 144 quota to VIP and JMM, VIP quit and joined NDA, and now JMM also claims that the RJD has "betrayed" it and will run in around 10 seats alone.  So UPA seat allocation is

RJD       144
INC         70
CPI(ML)   19
CPI           6
CPM          4

The RJD has mostly calculated that parties like RLSP VIP and JMM would struggle to shift their vote based over to RJD-INC and have gambled on just running on a narrow front hoping for a consolidation of the anti-NDA anti-Nitish Kumar vote.

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood each election in Bihar since 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (LJD)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)
Mukesh Sahani(VIP)

As one can see, just about every player has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi  and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago where as Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015. Mukesh Sahani of VIP did not become a player until 2014.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
(Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC)

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) +Mukesh Sahani(VIP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R)) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)[WINNING FRONT]

2019 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Nitish Kumar (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM)  + Sharad Yadav(LJD) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)+  Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav(RJD) + INC)

2020 Assembly (for now)
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan/Chirag Paswan(LJP)) vs (Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP)) vs + Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav(RJD) + INC) vs  (Sharad Yadav(LJD)

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/bihar/article/congress-self-goal-in-bihar-kisan-congress-unit-leader-says-poll-tickets-being-sold/663700

Right out of the gate INC seems to be in trouble.  Top INC leaders in Bihar claims that tickets are being sold to the highest bidder.  To be fair this is fairly common practice, especially in smaller parties like LJP HAM VIP RLSP etc etc.  Larger parties like BJP JD(U) RJD and even INC tend to do this less. For sure most of the time these types of things are hushed up.  This time is it coming out into the open.

One thing this really ironic about LJP fighting the election in the name of Modi and to install a BJP-LJP government is that LJP was formed in 2000 as a JD(U) splinter but stayed in NDA along with JD(U) but exited NDA in 2002 over the Gujarat riots under Gujarat CM Modi.  Ram Vilas Paswan led LJP out of NDA and into UPA over objections that BJP should have punished Gujarat CM Modi over his handling of the Gujarat riots.  And now LJP is fighting this assembly election in the name of Modi.

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-bihar-assembly-election-2020-know-the-caste-calculus-of-ticket-distribution-by-bjp-rjd-congress-in-bihar-vidhan-sabha-chunav-2848128

Out of the candidates announce so far

BJP: Mostly Upper Caste
RJD: Mostly Yadavs and Dalits
INC: Mostly Upper Caste

It seems INC is trying to regain its old Upper Caste vote bank from BJP since the 1980s.  INC has tried this over the last couple of decades to no avail but it seems their plan is to try again in hopes that the Upper Caste groups are frustrated with Nitish Kumar as CM and night turn to INC.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nitish-kumar-says-he-is-working-with-bjp-for-bihar-there-are-no-misunderstandings-2306014

In order to calm down JD(U), BJP came out saying that regardless of number of seats won by JD(U) vs BJP, the NDA CM will be Nitish Kumar. 

So now we have the bizarre situation were the BJP slogan is "Please vote BJP to get a JD(U) CM" while the LJP slogan is "Please vote LJP to get a BJP CM"

Of course below the surface this is bogus.  The level of distrust between JD(U) and BJP grassroots workers will most likely rise as BJP "rebels" join LJP to run against JD(U).  If after that various BJP workers disengage from the JD(U) campaign where the NDA candidate is JD(U) the level of trust might collapse and JD(U) workers in BJP seats might also abandon their posts.

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/lalu-prasad-yadav-interviewing-potential-rjd-candidates-for-upcoming-bihar-polls-from-inside-a-hospital/664140

Even though Lalu Yadav is in jail (really a hospital on medical leave) he seems to be interviewing a lot of the RJD candidates before clearing them for nomination by RJD.

A lot of the LJP candidates are BJP defectors or Upper Caste candidates whose job is to capture the BJP vote. 

The current state of JD(U)-BJP relationship at the grassroots level can best be explained by what we Chinese call "同床異夢" or Sharing the same bed but have different dreams.  If LJP continues on this path with tacit support from the BJP it could soon become "各懷鬼胎" or "Both side are pregnant with a demon fetus (which means both sides are planning to backstab each other)."  The Japanese have an idiom that is similar to this called "吳越之盟" or "Alliance between Wu and Yue (refereeing to  a short period during the 544BC-475BC where the ancient Chinese rival kingdoms of Wu and Yue were deadly rival but were allied and implies the alliance to doomed to fail due to conflicting basic interests)"

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/union-minister-ram-vilas-paswan-dies-in-hospital-son-chirag-tweets-you-will-always-be-with-me-2307266

LJP founder and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan pass away after a heart surgury.   Chirag Paswan is the leader of LJP in all sense of the word.  He emerged as a youth political superstar in the JNP landslide of 1977 when he won his seat 89%-8% over INC which I think to this day is the largest margin in a LS election in a competitive election.   He went on to be a key leader in the various Janata parties forming alliance with both INC and BJP.

A famous joke about Bihar elections is: We do not know who will win the election but no matter what Ram Vilas Paswan will emerge as part of the winning front and be in the cabinet.

I think Chirag Paswan is going to keep that tradition. He's positioned himself in such a way during this Assembly election that it appears he can join either side and come out a winner.

https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/elections/bihar-elections-2020-owaisi-teams-with-bsp-field-kushwaha-as-cm-face.html

AIMIM joins RLSP-BSP front.  Minor JD(U) splinter SJDD is also party of this front as well as UP Rajbhar based BSP splinter SBSP.  It seems most of the significant non-UPA non-NDA parties are fusing into this Third Front.  All things equal this front will hit UPA more than NDA.

His plan is based on the fact that BJP has strong organization and the Upper Caste vote in Bihar but lack a charismatic face to capture the marginal, mostly women, swing voter.  Nitish Kumar played that role for the BJP by having a JD(U)-BJP alliance where BJP brought its origination and Nitish Kumar brought is image.  It is clear to see that Nitish Kumar's brand is on the decline and this election will be his last.  After Nitish Kumar is no longer CM, either by election or pushed by by the BJP, the JD(U) will implode. 

Chirag Paswan want to accelerate this process by hitting JD(U) and take in a some of the anti-JD(U) pro-BJP forces.  This way, after the election, win or lose, JD(U) will start to implode.  Chirag Paswan want to come in and beat out the BJP to capture the JD(U) with Chirag Paswan becoming the new Nitish Kumar for the BJP.  Chirag Paswan might even then merge LJP into BJP and become the head of the Bihar BJP.  This plan is based on Chirag Paswan's youth and fresh image, certainly relative to the backroom dealmakers of the Bihar BJP.

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/bihar-assembly-elections-fighting-enemy-within-nitish-kumar-may-now-like-congress-to-win-more-seats-900489.html

With distrust growing between BJP and JD(U) at the grassroots level given the large number of BJP rebels running on LJP ticket, it seems JD(U) is now working on their Plan B: namely hope INC gains a bunch of seats so a JD(U)-INC post election alliance could have teeth if the BJP has plans to push their own CM with LJP.

While this could hurt the BJP in BJP vs INC seats it seems that an opposite trend will counter it, namely RJD's concern about a JD(U)-INC post-election alliance.  So it is not clear that the RJD base will go all out in favor of INC in seats INC is contesting.

All this makes for a fun free for all during voting when there are signs that every ally could be backstabbing each other.

Times Now C-Voter poll has NDA ahead of UPA

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                         Seats            Vote share
NDA                   160                 48.2%
  BJP                      85                 33.8%
  JD(U)                   70                 14.4%
  HAM-VIP                5

UPA                     76                 36.0%             
  RJD                     56                 24.3%
  INC                     15                 11.7%
  Left                      5             

LJP                       5                  6.7%
Others                  2                  9.1%

The vote shares are clearly incorrect.  With BJP and JD(U) contesting similar number of seats there is no way the BJP vote share is more than twice that of JD(U).  I guess I should read the vote shares are support for party.

Nitish Kumar not polling well.

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With only 28% job approval for Nitish Kumar and 54.5% are angry and want a change of government. 

But best CM candidate still has Nitish Kumar ahead

Nitish Kumar (JD(U))     32.0
Tejashwi Yadav (RJD)     17.6
Sushil Modi (BJP)           12.5
Lalu Yadav (RJD)             8.7
Chiraj Paswan                 8.0
Gijiraj Singh (BJP)           6.7
Tariq Anwar (INC)           1.5

Which adds up to

NDA             51.2
UPA             27.8
LJP                8.0

This is not surprising where even in elections where the ruling bloc ends up losing they still lead pre-election polls on best CM due to name recognition.

Usually pre-election polls overestimate the ruling bloc and given the visible anger toward Nitish Kumar's government and the LJP split I think NDA is headed to a fairly narrow victory with some chance of a UPA upset.

Don't know if we have an India megathread but news on the gay marriage fight in India: there are two court hearings scheduled today (October 14th) at the Delhi High Court.

Arundhati Katju will represent a lesbian couple who've been together for 8 years who intend to marry under the Special Marriage Act

Katju's partner, Menaka Guruswamy, will represent a gay Indian couple married in the US. But since same-sex marriage isn't legal in India, their marriage isn't recognized under the Foreign Marriage Act.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/bihar-elections-exit-poll-ban-applies-to-astrologers-tarot-readers-analysts-too-says-ec/articleshow/78686201.cms

"Bihar elections: Exit poll ban applies to astrologers, tarot readers, analysts too, says EC"

Just like 2019 LS election exit poll ban until all voters has voted also applies to astrologers, tarot readers and analysts.  So pretty much as soon as phase 1 voting begins no one can publicly give any concrete indication on how the wind is blowing.

 

On thing to note about the UPA alliance is that for the first time in Indian elections history the Maoist CPI(ML) has joined an alliance with mainstream "bourgeoisie" parties. 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/in-bihar-bjps-surveys-indicate-tough-fight-157205

"In Bihar, BJP’s surveys indicate tough fight"

Internal BJP surveys seems to indicate that

a) The NDA vs UPA race is quite close
b) Anti-Nitish Kumar sentiment is high and is hurting both BJP and JD(U)
c) LJP not doing that well so JD(U) will end up with some number of seats
d) JD(U)'s EBC base is suspicious of a de facto BJP-LJP alliance

So the BJP has reasons to fear that JD(U) will hold the balance of power after the election and if BJP pushes its case to hard post-election for more power JD(U) might defect back to UPA and form a JD(U)-RJD-INC government just like in 2015-2017.

As a result the BJP is doing the most to disown the LJP and pledge that it will support a Nitish Kumar CM even if the BJP wins more seats than the JD(U).  The BJP judgments is that the anti-JD(U) vote will mostly going to UPA and the LJP will have limited impact.  If so the BJP has to prioritize making sure the JD(U) EBC base vote BJP and ensure after the election that JD(U) stays with the BJP form the government.   

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/nitish-kumars-jdu-fields-46-candidates-including-nine-women-with-criminal-cases/articleshow/78774041.cms

"Nitish Kumar's JD(U) fields 46 candidates - including nine women - with criminal cases"

46 out of 115 JD(U) candidates have criminal cases against them.  But at least JD(U) is for gender equity as 9 out of the 46 criminal candidates are women

 

India Today CSDS poll on Bihar

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               Seats      Vote share
NDA         138             38%    (JD(U)-BJP-VIP-HAM)
UPA           93              32%   (RJD-INC-CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI)
LJP             4                 6%
GDSF          0                 7%  (RLSP-BSP-AIMIM-SJDD-SBSP-JPS)
Others        8               17%

Race is now a lot closer

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Best CM candidate

Nitish Kumar(JD(U))        31%
Tejashwi Yadav(RJD)        27%
Chirag Paswan(LJP)           5%
Sushil Modi(BJP)               4%
Lalu Yadav                        3%

This is a fairly poor number for a sitting CM.  It is clear Nitish Kumar is dragging down the NDA.  BJP has no choice since LJP support is not that great and backing LJP behind the scenes most likely split the anti-RJD vote and hand more seats to UPA.

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Only 31% are for giving Nitish Kumar another chance with a large bloc undecided.

This sort of polling result point to a very narrow re-election for NDA if not outright defeat given polls at this stage should overestimate the incumbent bloc.

Latest Times Now-CVoter Bihar poll also getting worse for NDA

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Vote share w/o seats projection has NDA-UPA gap getting pretty small

NDA       34.4
UPA        31.8
LJP          5.2
Other       4.5

()

46.79% says that things are getting worse

()

61.1% !!! are angry and want to change government
25.2% are angry but do not want to change government
13.7% are satisfied

These are very bad re-elect numbers.  BJP has tied themselves to a corpse in the form of Nitish Kumar

Latest Times Now-CVoter Bihar poll with seat projection has UPA closing the gap

NDA       147 (-13)
UPA         89 (+13)

change relative to their early Oct poll

More detailed version of Times Now-Covter poll on Bihar

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Which gives us

                        Seats                  Vote share
NDA                   147 (-13)                43.0%  
 BJP                     77  (-8)                 21.6% (-12.2%)
 JD(U)                  63  (-7)                 18.3% (+3.9%)
 Allies                    7  (+2)                   3.1%

UPA                    87(+11)                34.4%
 RJD                   60 (+4)                 24.1% (-0.2%)
 INC                   16 (+1)                  6.0%  (-5.7%)
 Left                   11 (+6)                  4.3%

LJP                       3 (-2)                 3.8% (-2.9%)
Other                    6 (+4)               18.6%

With change from early Oct poll.  It seems they fixed the bad ratio between BJP and JD(U) vote shares given they are contesting similar number of seats.  Also there seems to be a lot more undecides  from the early Oct poll which is usually good for the opposition front, in this case UPA.

Overall if the vote share gap between NDA and UPA is 8.6% than the seat share gap should be bigger than this.  I suspect the seats share are closer to the mark than vote share.

()

Many projected seats are very close 31 NDA seats and 20 UPA seats are still neck-to-neck (within 3%)

If the most recent Times Now-Covter poll on Bihar is accurate then from a party seats point of view it is fairly close to status quo (2015 results) in terms of who holds the balance of power.

           2015           2020
BJP         53              77
JD(U)      71              63
RJD        80               60
INC         27              16

JD(U) will still hold the balance of power.  If JD(U) stays with BJP then JD(U)-BJP will form the government.  If JD(U) does not like the deal it gets from BJP it can defect back to RJD-INC and form a majority with JD(U)-RJD-INC. 

Phase 1 voting done a couple of days ago.  Turnout was 54% which is actually a bit higher than in 2015.  This tends to help RJD as RJD does better in higher turnout elections vs JD(U).

All signs are that NDA still has the larger voting bloc and the Modi factor but developments on the ground are not going well for NDA.  It seems JD(U) and BJP have a high level of distrust and are really running two separate campaigns.  The BJP high command continues to put out signals that they totally back Nitish Kumar for CM but that is more about accepting the reality that LJP is not doing that well and pushing BJP votes to LJP will merely throw more seats toward RJD-INC.  The BJP seems to have accepted that once again, they gave been out-maneuvered by Nitish Kumar and that at best JD(U) will hold the balance of power between BJP and RJD-INC-Left.  So it is best, on the short run, the BJP continue their alliance with Nitish Kumar and them hope to take over the JD(U) vote  after Nitish Kumar exits the political scene over the next 5 years.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/mayawatis-open-support-to-bjp-spells-setback-for-grand-secular-democratic-front-in-bihar/articleshow/78957355.cms

In some good news for the RJD-INC-Left alliance, the GDSF alliance (RLSP-BSP-AIMIM) suffered a setback in terms of its credibility when BSP leader Mayawati  announced that her MLAs in UP should back BJP in MLC elections.   It seems in UP part of the BSP is in revolt against Mayawati and a bunch of MLAs seems to be threatening to bolt and join up with SP.  In response Mayawati announced that her loyal UP MLAs should back BJP in the upcoming UP MLC elections to stop SP.

This has the net effect of undercutting the GDSF effort to capture the anti-BJP vote from UPA.  Mayawati clearly is prioritizing UP over Bihar which makes sense given how weak BSP is in Bihar.  Still this move undercut AIMIM's effort to cut into the RJD-INC Muslim vote.

Second phase was a couple of days ago.  Turnout was also around 56% just like the first phase.  Overall this is good news for RJD.  I always figured for RJD-INC-Left to have chance turnout has to 55% or above.  Anything in the low 50s or high 40s like in 2005 and 2010 means a JD(U)-BJP landslide.

General trends are
a) Modi still very popular where he gets credit for all positive developments while JD(U) gets the blame for all bad developments
b) This means Continued distrust between BJP and JD(U) at the grassroots level and confused BJP voters on what to do to support Modi but show anger at Nitish Kumar
c) LJP not likely to win many seats but seems to be cutting into the BJP vote in places where it is running against JD(U)
d) Even though INC got 70 seats to run in, around 40 of them are in BJP strongholds so the cap for INC even in a very RJD-INC-Left finish is in the high 20s.  In many of these BJP strongholds the Upper Caste vote is sticking by BJP which means the INC candidates there have to rely on RJD cadres to rally the OBC and Yadav vote for INC.
e) RJD rallies very well attended. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav seems to be drawing large crowds and have some level of youth enthusiasm.  Most likely RJD-INC-Left will fall short but this election has Tejashwi Yadav vindicating himself after his disastrous 2019 LS election outing where he failed to manage allies well and had several RJD rebellions including his own brother Tej Pratap Yadav
f) GDSF ((RLSP-BSP-AIMIM-SJDD-SBSP-JPS)) and RJD splinter JAP seems to have very limited impact outside of a couple of RLSP strongholds and very deep Muslim areas where it is mostly UPA vs AIMIM.  The Muslim vote seems to be sticking with RJD-INC-Left and not going for AIMIM in marginal seats.
g) All signs are that this election now is neck-to-neck with only a very tiny JD(U)-BJP-VIP-HAM edge. Nitish Kumar is still the slight favored to continue as CM despite his unpopularity since he will hold the balance of power in case of a NDA victory.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/73-of-rjd-candidates-in-3rd-phase-polls-face-criminal-cases/articleshow/79048062.cms

Points out that in the third and final phase 50% of RJD candidates faces serious criminal cases (rape or murder) which means the RJD are running an unusually large number of local dons are its candidates.  The real number might be larger than this as the RJD candidate might be the wife of one of these dons in which case there is no case against the RJD candidate but in de facto terms the candidate is the don that is the husband of the RJD candidate.

A bunch of RS elections took place in Nov in UP and Uttarakhand which were a BJP sweep as expected given the large BJP majorities in UP and Uttarakhand assemblies.  There is a RS by-election in Dec due to the death of a newly elected BJP RS MP in Karnataka due to COVID-19. Assuming that goes BJP as it should the End of 2020 RS breakdown should be

NDA       119
  BJP           94
  AIADMK    9
  JD(U)       5
  RPI(A)      1
  AGP         1
  BPF          1
  PMK         1
  TMC         1
  NPP          1   
  MNF         1
  NDA-IND  1
  NDA-NOM 3

Pro-NDA   16  (rivals of BJP at the local level but will support BJP at the national level)
 BJD           9
 YSRCP       6
  SDF         1

ex-NDA     7  (ex BJP allies that in theory can go back to NDA)
  SHS         3
  SAD         3
  NPF         1

UPA         58
 INC           38  
 DMK         7
 RJD           5
 NCP          4
 IUML         1
 MDMK       1
 JMM          1   
 UPA-IND    1

anti-NDA 43
 AITC       13
 SP            5
 TRS          7
 CPM         5
 BSP         3
 AAP         3
 TDP         1
 PDP         2
 KEC(M)    1
 JD(S)       1
 CPI          1
 LJD         1

Vacant      2 (both in Bihar)

NDA still does not have majority and will need support from pro-NDA and the once in a while ex-NDA MP support to pass laws

If I make assumptions on how assembly elections will go in the next few years and what that means for RS and assume the NDA and UPA alliances stay the same (which it will not).  My projected RS breakdown will be

                        NDA       pro-NDA      ex-NDA      UPA       anti-NDA     vacant
End of 2020       119           16              7             58             43              2
End of 2021       119           16              7             58             44              1
End of 2022       113           19              6             63             44              0
End of 2023       114           19              6             64             42              0  
End of 2024       107           22              7             69             40              0

This means unless NDA can rope in a few more parties NDA will not get a majority in RS in the rest of Modi's current term but has de facto majority with the support of pro-NDA parties.  Also even if NDA loses the 2024 LS elections the new UPA government will struggle to build back up a pro-UPA majority and will take at least 4-5 years beyond 2024 to achieve.  The BJP gains in the RS last few years has bobby trapped the federal government beyond 2024 to make it ungovernable for years to come for any future UPA government.  

Nitish Kumar, on the campaign trail, indicated that

a) This is his last election
b) Came out against CAA and took a hit a BJP UP CM Adityanath who is also campaigning for BJP in Bihar

This seems to indicate that JD(U) did not do well in the first two phases given the anti-incumbency sentiments which is also visible in the BJP vote bloc so Nitish sought to counteract that by indicating he will retire sometime in the next term as CM.

The third phase will see JD(U) vs INC vs AIMIM in a bunch heavy Muslim districts and Nitish Kumar, it seems, needed to distance himself from BJP to have a chance in those seats.  Of course this only adds to the JD(U)-BJP divide at the grassroots and if the vote leakage is high between the two blocs then many races, mostly JD(U) ones, might flip to UPA.

Voting in last phase in progress.  Turnout at 46% as of 3pm which would mean higher than 56% turnout.  All things equal this is good news for RJD and bad news for JD(U).

Most media exit polls will be out in 10-15 min.  In the meantime unknown outfit PollDiary has it neck-to-neck between NDA and UPA with LJP cutting into NDA votes and AIMIM cutting into UPA Muslim votes

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ABP exit poll also has it neck-to-neck

NDA  104-128
UPA   108-131
LJP       1-3
Others  4-8

If other exit poll has something like this then UPA wins given that UPA has the momentum

Times Now Cvoter exit poll

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UPA     120          36.3%
NDA    116          37.7%
LJP         1            8.5%
Others    6          17.5%

It seems  Tejashwi Yadav is pulling off a massive update

If these exit polls are right then BJP made a serious mistake in this assembly election.  They should have dropped JD(U) and ran with LJP-VIP and even RLSP.  BJP-LJP-VIP vs RJD-INC-Left vs JD(U)-HAM vs RLSP-AIMIM-BSP would have produced a BJP-LJP-VIP victory. 

Pro-BJP Republic TV also has UPA edge

()

UPA    118-138    40%-43%
NDA     91-117    37%-39%
LJP        5-8          7%-9%
Others   3-6         11%-14%

Another disastrous exit poll for NDA

ABP exit poll seat breakdown

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RJD: 81-89
Cong: 21-29
Left: 06-13

BJP: 66-74
JDU: 38-46
VIP: 00-04
HAM: 00-04

LJP: 01-03

INC held its own in the BJP-INC seats while RJD crushed JD(U) in RJD-JD(U) seats with LJP cutting into the BJP vote

MP mini-assembly election by-elections India Today-Axis exit poll: BJP 16-18 INC 10-12.  BJP holds on to power, barely, in MP.  INC actually held is own here.

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The rule of thumb is Indian exit polls are: if one party/bloc outperforms its pre-election polls in the exit polls then the exit polls most likely are underestimating said party/bloc, especially if said party/bloc are in the opposition.     These exit polls imply a comfortable majority for UPA

Times Now-Cvoter vote share breakdown by party

NDA: 37.7%
JD(U): 15.1%
BJP: 20.4%
HAM: 1%
VIP: 1.2%

UPA: 36.3%
RJD: 22.9%
INC: 9.4%
Left: 4%

Others: 17.5%
LJP: 8.5%

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India Today-My Axis exit poll are not out yet but initial numbers on best CM are bad for NDA and good for UPA

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Today’s Chanakya which has a history of a huge pro-BJP house effect has it at a landslide defeat for NDA

No seat count yet but vote share is disasterous for NDA

BJP – JDU+    34% ± 3%
RJD – Cong+  44% ± 3%
Others            22% ± 3%

India Today-My Axis exit poll vote shares by age

Age    - NDA - MGB - LJP

18-25 -  34% - 47% - 8%
26-35 -  36% - 47% - 7%
36-50 -  42% - 41% - 7%
51-60 -  45% - 40% - 6%
60+    -  48% - 38% - 6%

Youth surge for RJD where as in 2019 they went heavy for BJP/Modi

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Times Now-CVoter exit poll vote by location

URBAN:

NDA- 43.8%
UPA- 32.6%
OTH- 23.5%

SEMI URBAN:

NDA- 32.7%
UPA- 34.3%
OTH- 33%

RURAL:

NDA- 36.3%
UPA- 40.5%
OTH- 23.2%

Urban-rural split as expected given BJP's strength in urban areas

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Anti-BJP  Democracy Times exit polls

UPA: 129-144
NDA: 94-109
LJP: 04-07
OTH: 03-08

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India Today - Axis My India exit poll

UPA   139-161   44%
NDA    69-91     39%
LJP       3-5         7%
GDSP    3-5        4%

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Has large UPA victory

Their seat projection has massive UPA landslide

BJP – JDU+   55 ± 11 Seats
RJD – Cong+ 180 ± 11 Seats
Others  8 ± 4 Seats

NDTV poll of polls

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Dainik Bhaskar does have NDA ahead

Times of India poll of polls

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Today’s Chanakya exit poll breakdown by caste.  UPA did better than expected with SC and EBC.  The RJD gamble to drop HAM and VIP and rope in CPM(ML) CPM CPI to capture SC and EBC looks like paid off. INC kept its base with Upper castes while RJD clawed back the Yadav vote leakage from 2019 LS elections.

                        NDA         UPA
Upper Caste.   60%          29%
Yadav.               22%         69%
Muslim.            12%          80%
SC.                     39%          34%
EBC.                   40%          33%
OBC.                   51%         30%

It is also interesting to note that Tejashwi Yadav who is now favored to be the next CM is only 31 years old.  Just as the impressive is he would have won this spot on his own as Lalu Yadav is in jail.  In 2012 Akilesh Yadav was 38 when he was made CM if UP by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav but it was his father that won the election for SP and gave the role to his son so he would be free to persue a role in Federal politics.

Up until the summer Tejashwi Yadav was viewed by the public the media and even his own party as a joke.  Then this last two months Nitish Kumar imploded and Tejashwi Yadav caught fire with the youth. 

India Today-Axis My India exit poll results by community

                  NDA       UPA        LJP        GDSF (RLSP-BSP-AIMIM)
Muslims         9          79           1            7
Mahadalit      43         37           8            6
Paswan         31         31         30            2
EBC              59         22           8            5 
Yadav           10         83           1            1
Kurmi           66         20           4            4
Koeri            52         26           7            9
Other OBC    57         26           7            3
Tribal           53          27           8            2
Baniya          64         19           6            2
Bhumihar      54         19         17            2
Rajput          54          17        13            3
Brahmin       62          17          8            2
Other Upper  62          21          8            2

Overall         39          44           7            4

India Today-Axis My India pointed out that

a) The BJP Upper caste base was not enthusiastic about it alliance with JD(U).   Bhumihar and Rajput defected in large number to LJP
b)  Tejashwi Yadav's strategy seems to be Muslim+Yadav+Youth of all castes which worked out well
c) RJD's alliance with the Left was effective in bring in Mahadalit and EBC votes
d) LJP clearly did well with Paswans as expected and denied that vote to NDA
e) JD(U)'s attempt to corner the Mahadalit vote failed in face of Tejashwi Yadav's youth appeal and Left's effective consolidation of its Mahadalit base behind UPA
f) RLSP failed to corner the Koeri vote

My exit poll based algorithm for predicting results


                                   NDA       UPA        Others
Today's Chanakya           50         180           8
India Today-Axis             80         150           4
Democracy Times           99         135           9
Republic-Jan Ki Baat      104        128          12
TV9 Bharatvarsh            115        120           8
ETG                              114        120           9
Times Now-C Voter        116        120           7
PollDiary                       112         98          33
Dainik Bhaskar              125         77          41
-------------------------------------------------------------
Average                        102       125          16

The only exit poll that did a pre-election poll was Times Now-C Voter

                                    NDA        UPA        Others
Pre-election                   147          89             7
Exit                               116         120            7

So the momentum is significantly behind UPA.  There is no need to throw out Today's Chanakya in this case since they do not show signs of a pro-BJP bias.  This means we should NOT go with the average but go with the more pro-UPA polls.  I will go with the second most pro-UPA poll which is India Today-Axis

                                   NDA         UPA        Others
India Today-Axis             80         150           4

But since this is a defeat of an incumbent you have to shift more seats toward the winning opposition bloc which gives us

                                   NDA         UPA        Others
India Today-Axis             80         150           4
Shift                              -8          +8
-------------------------------------------------------------
Projection                      72          158           4

So my exit poll based projection algorithm projects a massive UPA victory with around a 2/3 majority.  Totally unexpected at the beginning of the campaign when I thought it would be NDA by a tiny margin or UPA by a tiny margin and that was one of the more pro-UPA projections out there.

Its interesting that the two exit polls that has NDA with an edge, PollDiary and Dainik Bhaskar, has Others at 33 and 41 respectively.  So their exit poll results must have LJP and GDSF overperforming and eating into both the NDA and UPA vote shares and in the resulting 4 way chaos NDA ends up with more seats as GDSF hurts UPA more than LJP hurts NDA. 

Assuming that this election is an anti-incumbency election the anti-incumbent vote tends to get consolidated so this scenario is not likely.  That was the gamble RJD made when they refused to accept HAM and RLSP seat requests and let them leave UPA on the premise that the anti-JD(U) vote will consolidate behind UPA.   As long as these two exit poll results does not take place it seems Tejashwi Yadav and RJD most likely made the right gamble.

If Nitish Kumar does lose the election as the exit polls predicts then the start and end of his reign would all rotate around the LJP factor.  Nitish Kumar would have rode into power based on the LJP and now lose power based on LJP.

In the 2004 LS elections a grand RJD-INC-LJP alliance was formed and defeated JD(U)-BJP.  LJP was a JD(U) splinter that stayed in NDA but bolted from NDA and joined RJD-INC to protest the  2002 Gujarat riots under then CM Modi.  The 2004 RJD-INC-LJP victory in the 2004 LS election was a shock since it was assumed that the JD(U)-BJP would repeat their 1999 LS election and on anti-incumbency against the Bihar RJD state government.

As the 2005 Bihar assembly election approached it seems that as long as RJD-INC-LJP alliance held together they were certain to win re-election.  But it was at this stage that LJP had other ideas as it wanted to carve out a space for itself and not play second fiddle to RJD.  So LJP, while staying a part of the UPA government at the center, ran separately from RJD.  The Bihar INC did nothing to stop this as it also wanted to cut RJD down to size and formed tactical alliances with both RJD and LJP on the premise that there is no way JD(U)-BJP can win so a post election government with a weakened RJD is in the best interest of the INC.

The Feb 2005 Bihar assembly election threw up a fractured mandate with RJD INC and LJP a majority between them but with LJP holding the balance of power between RJD-INC and JD(U)-BJP. LJP negotiated  with both sides  for so long that a good bloc of the LJP MLAs defected to JD(U) to try to break the deadlock.  The pro-INC governor of Bihar refused to accept this defection and called for another Oct 20015 Bihar assembly election.  INC this time around saw the danger of a JD(U)-BJP victory and allied with RJD while LJP ran separately hoping to play kingmakers again.  The result was a resounding victory for JD(U)-BJP and the start of a 15 year Nitish Kumar reign in Bihar.  

Now 15 years later it seems the BJP was trying to play the same game INC did back in 2005 with the LJP but with the goal of cutting JD(U) down to size by tactically accepting LJP running to split the JD(U) vote while LJP stays with the NDA government at the federal level.  The BJP was certain that after the 2019 JD(U)-BJP-LJP landslide victory in the LS elections there is no way the RJD-INC could win the 2020 assembly elections.  Just like 2005 it seems it is about to blow up in the BJP's and JD(U)'s face.  So Nitish Kumar's rise to power starts with a LJP defection and is likely to end with a LJP defection.

Is there normally that much difference in exit polls?

This is par for the course, especially for Bihar.  In 2015, for example, the exit polls were 

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Worse, there was an exit poll that had JD(U)-RJD-INC 170 NDA 64 which ended up being accurate that was not published because CNN-IBN did not believe the result and pulled the poll from its TV program.

The number of parties and alliances involved, many races being multi-polar, and different swings bases on caste makes Bihar very hard to poll and project.

Most exit polls that has detailed breakdown by party has RJD-INC Maoist ally CPI(ML) at around an amazing 12 !! seats with CPI and CPM with 1-2 seats each.  This would be the best electoral performance of a Maoist party in an Indian election if this ends up being true.

If next year's WB assembly goes the way one would expect, then in 2021 you would have the Left having more seats in Bihar than WB.  If anyone had predicted this in the mid 2000s that person would have been put in an insane asylum.

There were 7 by-elections in UP assembly.  In 2017 UP assembly elections BJP won 6 of the 7 and SP won the last one.  India Today-Axis My India had an exit poll for these 7 seats which was

            seats    vote share
BJP         5-6      37%
SP          1-2      27%
BSP        0-1      20%
INC           0        8%

India Today mostly presented it as the BJP retaining their vote base.  Not sure if I agree.  If you look at these 7 seats in 2017 and mapped out their vote shares it was

BJP        44.8%
SP-INC   22.6%
  SP          19.9%
  INC          2.7%
BSP        24.2%
RLD          2.4%
NISHAD    3.5%

NISHAD has since supported BJP.   In 2017 SP and INC ran as allies but this time are running separately.   BSP is breaking with tradition and taking part in by-elections.  If the exit poll vote shares are correct both BJP and BSP have lost ground to SP and INC.  The erosion of the BJP vote since 2017 is quite significant and I would not read this as good news at all if I were the BJP.

NDTV analysis of exit polls

Gender gap with Men voting for UPA and Women for NDA (mostly has to do with Nitish Kumar's policy of prohibition).  Good news for NDA is women turnout is higher.  Note that men register a a higher rate then women so more men votes were cast than women
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BJP is expected to lose ground relative to 2019 LS elections
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A 17% swing against BJP which is the average so far in 2019-2020 assembly elections leads to UPA 150 NDA 80 which looks suspiciously to my projection
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When Modi is on the "ballot" BJP does better, even in assembly elections
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Key voting pattern by community
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Where Muslims are more numerous (RJD and INC base)
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Where Yadav are more numerous (RJD base)
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Where Paswans are more numerous (LJP base)
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Where Kurmis are more numerous (JD(U) base)
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Where Upper Castes are more numerous (BJP base)
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If RJD does win it seems it has to do with a whirlwind of rallies by Tejaswi Yadav.  In a 20-day campaign,  Tejaswi Yadav completed 247 rallies which averages to over 10 rallies in one day.  The size of the rallies were huge (and mostly youth) and only got bigger as the campaign went on

Sample of what the rallies looked like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrKef_XI0RA

No masks or social distancing here.  Doctor Fauci  would not approve

Any chance we see a "red mirage" type effect in today's elections?

See my old writeup on how vote counts work


The way to explain is that the way the count works is they count a block of precincts, report results then count another bloc of precincts and then report the combined result.  Because of that the count is NOT random and will have clear biases.  The bias is random but large.  So in the earlier round the vote share could be off as much by, say 10%, or even greater from the real final vote share.

Now, lets imagine an election where Party A defeated Party B 55% to 45% in overall vote share.  Lets assume the vote share per seat is a bell distribution around the 55/45 A vs B point.  So the real result will have party A winning 75% of the seats.  Now in the early round each result will be randomly add 10% or subtract 10% from A's vote share.  Say in half the seats A's vote share is artificially reported as 10% higher than it is and half of the seats A's vote share is artistically reported as 10% lower than it is .  Now, since A is beating B by 10% on average in the seats that we artificially add 10% to A's vote share does nothing to the reported leader of the seat since most likely A was already ahead in the real result anyway. But in the half the seats where we artificially reduce the reported vote share of A then it could lead us to report that B is ahead.  Now as the real results do come in as more and more precincts are counted the true vote share of that seat is revealed reverting a lot of B reported leads as really A leads.

Now if the election is 50/50 or neck-to-neck between A and B then this random shift does nothing to the seat count on average.  That is why I said



Is true. If it is landslide then  as the count goes on the landslide lead gets greater. if it is neck-to-neck then it stays neck-to-neck the whole time

I noticed this watching Indian election returns years ago and after some thinking figured out why.  This is why I focus on the early vote share reports on ECI by state as a way to figure out what the final seat count is going to be.

This took place in 2015 where the early count had a BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM landslide victory over JD(U)-RJD-INC but then later in the day it went the other way around.  The networks actually started to talk about what the BJP did right to win only to change their tune later in the day.

Very early count (not really that relevant and very VBM heavy which tend to lean BJP) has

Leads from 87 out of 243 seats

UPA       44 (+10)
NDA      38 (-13)
LJP         2 (+2)
Others    2 (--)

JD(U) taking a lot of losses so far

Still very early (mostly postal VBM)

UPA       74 (+19)
NDA      56 (-22)
LJP         2 (+2)
Others    4 (--)

postal votes usually favor BJP.  This is not looking good for NDA.  BJP actually gaining seats while JD(U) taking massive losses.

With about half the vote counted the NDA has a surprising narrow lead.  Looks like the exit polls had a miss again.  The result are actually what was expected w/o the exit polls

NDA         131(+6)
  BJP           73(+20)
  JD(U)        50(-21)
  VIP             6(+6)
  HAM           2(+1)

UPA          102(-8)
 RJD           66(-14)
 INC           18(-9)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            2(--)

GDSF        4(+2)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          2(+2)
 AIMIM      2(+2)

IND           4(--)

vote share wise which I have to compute seems to be neck-to-neck so I suspect it might get closer from here but we will have to see

The vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out)

NDA         37.57%
  BJP          19.70%
  JD(U)       15.33%
  VIP            1.78%
  HAM          0.76%

UPA         36.54%
  RJD         22.93%
  INC           9.43%
  CPM(ML)    2.95%
  CPM          0.62%
  CPI           0.61%

LJP             5.77%

So neck-to-neck vote share wise.

Seat wise it is now (a bit more than half the vote counted)

NDA         131(+6)
  BJP           75(+22)
  JD(U)        48(-23)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          101(-9)
 RJD           63(-17)
 INC           21(-6)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            2(+2)

LJP            1(-1)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          2(+2)
 AIMIM      4(+4)

IND           4(--)

Strong AIMIM performance seems to indicate that AIMIM did cut into the UPA Muslim vote

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 55%-60% of the vote counted.  Gap getting closer between the two blocs

NDA         37.32%
  BJP          19.62%
  JD(U)       15.16%
  VIP            1.76%
  HAM          0.78%

UPA         36.70%
  RJD         23.01%
  INC           9.29%
  CPM(ML)    3.13%
  CPM          0.66%
  CPI           0.61%

LJP           5.72%

GDSF       4.82%
   RLSP        1.97%
   BSP          1.68%
   AIMIM      1.17%

Seat wise it is now also getting closer

NDA         126(+6)
  BJP           76(+23)
  JD(U)        42(-29)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          107(-9)
 RJD           70(-10)
 INC           18(-9)
 CPI(ML)    12(+9)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            1(-1)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          2(+2)
 AIMIM      4(+4)

IND           3(-1)

Due to COVID-19 there were a lot more voting booths which means the count is much slower.  Usually by this time around 80%-90% of the vote would have been counted but right now it seems to be around 55%-60%

BJP is sweeping various assembly by-elections

In MP mini-assembly election it is sofar
 
                  seats     vote share(w/o NOTA stripped out)
BJP              18             50.76%
INC               7             40.20%
BSP               1              4.86%


Similar story in Gujarat where just like MP a bunch of INC MLAs defected to BJP leading to by-elections where the INC MLAs run as BJP candidates

                  seats     vote share(w/o NOTA stripped out)
BJP                8            54.75%
INC                0            34.52%


In Bihar LS by-election it is neck-to-neck between INC and JD(U)

JD(U)    37.70%
INC       35.39%
BPP       11.20%  (AAP like youth party)
RLSP       5.06%


In UP the BJP wins most races but loses ground in terms of vote share

                  seats     vote share(w/o NOTA stripped out)
BJP                 5            35.79%
BJP rebel                         2.55%
NISHAND rebel                6.28%   
SP-RLD           2            24.84%
BSP                0             18.36%
INC                0               7.64%

Seat wise it is now also getting even closer as foretold by close vote share count so far

NDA         124(-1)
  BJP           75(+22)
  JD(U)        41(-30)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          110(-2)
 RJD           72(-8)
 INC           20(-7)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          2(+2)
 AIMIM      4(+4)

IND           4(--)

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 60% of the vote counted.  Gap getting closer between the two blocs

NDA         37.32%
  BJP          19.58%
  JD(U)       15.15%
  VIP            1.75%
  HAM          0.84%

UPA         36.85%
  RJD         23.11%
  INC           9.30%
  CPM(ML)    3.18%
  CPM          0.64%
  CPI           0.62%

LJP           5.63%

GDSF       4.79%
   RLSP        1.97%
   BSP          1.64%
   AIMIM      1.18%

Seat gap getting closer with RJD overtaking BJP as largest party (for now)

NDA         121(-4)
  BJP           71(+18)
  JD(U)        42(-29)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          113(-2)
 RJD           74(-6)
 INC           21(-6)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           3(-1)

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 65% of the vote counted.  Gap getting slightly closer between the two blocs

NDA         37.21%
  BJP          19.51%
  JD(U)       15.10%
  VIP            1.74%
  HAM          0.86%

UPA         36.85%
  RJD         23.25%
  INC           9.20%
  CPM(ML)    3.14%
  CPM          0.67%
  CPI           0.59%

LJP           5.61%

GDSF       4.80%
   RLSP        1.95%
   BSP          1.63%
   AIMIM      1.22%

Seat gap getting closer with RJD overtaking BJP as largest party (for now).  NDA no longer has majority.

NDA         121(-4)
  BJP           73(+20)
  JD(U)        40(-31)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          114(-1)
 RJD           77(-3)
 INC           20(-5)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            2(+2)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           2(-2)

Why is the Left doing so well in terms of seats? Did they get a good deal or there's more to it?

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 72% of the vote counted.  Both blocs now basically tied

NDA         37.11%
  BJP          19.38%
  JD(U)       15.14%
  VIP            1.72%
  HAM          0.87%

UPA         37.07%
  RJD         23.46%
  INC           9.20%
  CPM(ML)    3.13%
  CPM          0.72%
  CPI           0.56%

LJP           5.63%

GDSF       4.76%
   RLSP        1.90%
   BSP          1.62%
   AIMIM      1.24%

Total shock. Although exit polls indicated this.  Exit polls overestimated RJD but not CPI(ML).  I think there is novelty appeal of the Maoist CPI(ML).  They tend not to be associated with a particular caste, although they are strong with Mahadalit and EBCs, which means they get to cut into the youth vote of all castes.

Seat gap getting closer with RJD overtaking BJP as largest party and the two blocs basically tied

NDA         119(-6)
  BJP           72(+19)
  JD(U)        39(-32)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          116(+6)
 RJD           78(-2)
 INC           20(-7)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            2(+2)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           2(-2)

The minor allies of both fronts are the heros so far.  VIP and HAM overperformed and are keeping NDA in the game.  RJD and INC underperformed exit polls but CPI(ML)-CPI-CPM are doing very well and keeping UPA in the game.

Looks like a bit of that this time too?

Not really. The NDA lead in the early count was not that large and now it is tighter is really not inconsistent that this count is very close. Most likely NDA wins but very narrowly

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 82% of the vote counted.  B
Both bloc neck to neck

NDA         37.19%
  BJP          19.36%
  JD(U)       15.31%
  VIP            1.62%
  HAM          0.90%

UPA         37.16%
  RJD         23.36%
  INC           9.38%
  CPM(ML)    3.14%
  CPM          0.71%
  CPI           0.57%

LJP           5.64%

GDSF       4.64%
   RLSP        1.84%
   BSP          1.57%
   AIMIM      1.23%

Seat gap moving in favor of NDA despite vote share tie

NDA         125(--)
  BJP           73(+20)
  JD(U)        43(-27)
  VIP             4(+4)
  HAM           4(+3)

UPA          111(+1)
 RJD           75(-5)
 INC           19(-8)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           3(+3)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           1(-3)

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 95% of the vote counted. 
Still neck-to-neck

NDA         37.24%
  BJP          19.40%
  JD(U)       15.41%
  VIP            1.53%
  HAM          0.90%

UPA         37.22%
  RJD         23.06%
  INC           9.51%
  CPM(ML)    3.18%
  CPM          0.82%
  CPI           0.65%

LJP           5.68%

GDSF       4.52%
   RLSP        1.77%
   BSP          1.50%
   AIMIM      1.25%

Seat gap in favor of NDA despite vote share tie

NDA         125(--)
  BJP           74(+21)
  JD(U)        43(-27)
  VIP             4(+4)
  HAM           4(+3)

UPA          110(+1)
 RJD           75(-5)
 INC           19(-8)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           3(+3)
 CPI            2(+2)

LJP            1(-1)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           1(-3)

Most likely this will be the result with NDA getting a bare majority.  Before the exit polls I think the UPA would jump at this result.  But after exit polls this sort of a result is quite disappointing to UPA.

BJP campaigned on supporting Nitish Kumar as CM even if the BJP wins more seats than JD(U).  Now that BJP will end up with something like 74 MLAs vs 43 MLA for JD(U) puts BJP in a bind.  The will face pressure from within to put in a BJP CM especially when the large drop of JD(U) MLAs represents a vote of no confidence in Nitish Kumar.

I guessing JDU is going to claim that JDU could have been the largest party without LJP splitting the NDA vote in JDU seats.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/chirag-paswans-wicked-game-puts-nitish-kumar-in-third-place-2323236

Yes, but the BJP will, with a innocent face, say "what the LJP did has nothing to do with me ..."

Still one way or another for now the BJP will have Nitish Kumar as CM.  Sooner or later he will step down and there will be a race between BJP, LJP and RJD to eat into the JD(U) which will for sure disintegrate once Nitish Kumar moves on from the political scene.  JD(U) at 43 seats it the lowest seat count of JD(U) (and SAP which is proto-JD(U)) since 1995.  One can argue the disintegration has already begun.   

()

I am still working on my vote share calculations but in the meantime here is NewsClick's vote share calculations when compared to 2015

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/tejashwi-yadav-demands-recounting-of-postal-ballots-169699

Tejashwi elected Grand Alliance legislature party leader, claims NDA won by deceit

Tejashwi Yadav claims that his alliance was robbed of victory via VBM ballots.  He demands recounts across the board of all VBM.  He indicated that VBM should be counted first and then the election votes but it seems all sorts of VBM ballots showed up during the counting day to be counted after the VBM allegedly were all counted.

My calculated vote share

                    Contest          Win           Vote share          Vote share in contested seats
NDA                243             125               37.90%
  BJP               110               74               19.80%                      43.17%
  JD(U)            115               43               15.65%                      33.48%   
  VIP                 11                4                  1.54%                      33.28%
  HAM                 7                4                  0.91%                      32.89%

JD(U) rebel                           1                 0.90%
BJP rebel                                                 0.65%

LJP+              136                 1                 5.87%
 LJP               135                 1                 5.75%                       10.46%
 Ind(LJP)           1                  0                0.11%                       27.83%

UPA               243              110               37.87%
  RJD             114                75               23.50%                      39.60%
  INC               70                19                9.64%                       33.45%
  CPM(ML)        19                12                3.22%                       42.27%
  CPI                  6                 2                0.84%                       33.74%
  CPM                 4                 2                0.66%                       38.60%

RJD rebel                                                0.59%
INC rebel                                                0.16%

GDSF            225                 6                 4.69%
 RLSP              99                 0                 1.80%                        4.48%
 BSP               78                 1                 1.52%                         4.73%
 AIMIM            20                 5                 1.26%                       14.54%
 SJDD             19                 0                 0.08%                         1.01%
 JP(S)               7                 0                 0.03%                         1.05%
 SBSP               2                  0                0.00%                         0.38%

a) BJP clearly mostly avoided being dragged down by anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar
b) LJP clearly hit JD(U) hard winning over 10% of the vote where it contested.  As a result JD(U) seat and vote share in seats contested is clearly lower than BJP.
c) INC is the weak link in UPA with a fairly low seat and vote share in seats contested.  To be fair INC got a lot of Upper caste heavy BJP-INC seats which the BJP were predestined to sweep
d) The Left, and especially CPI(ML) did very well with CPI(ML) actually getting vote share in seat contested close to what the BJP achieved!!
e) AIMIM clearly cut into the RJD-INC Muslim vote and did just well enough to prevent an UPA majority.
f) RLSP was a total bust. RJD was right not to give them the seats demands they were looking for
g) HAM and VIP did fairly well under the circumstances.  Both were able to ride the BJP wave.  Several VIP candidates were actually BJP candidate running on VIP ticket so the VIP performance has to have an asterisk next to it
h) JD(U) did just well enough to drag the NDA across the finishing line.

NDA vs UPA battle matrix

BJP vs RJD - 61
  BJP         38
  RJD        21
  AIMIM      2

BJP vs INC - 37
  BJP         29
  INC          7
  BSP          1

BJP vs Left - 12
  BJP          7
  Left          5

JD(U) vs RJD - 71
  JD(U )        21
  RJD           48
  AIMIM         1
  JD(U) rebel  1

JD(U) vs INC - 28
  JD(U)         17
  INC            10
  AIMIM          1

JD(U) vs Left - 16
  JD(U)           5
  Left            10
  LJP              1

NDA Minor vs RJD - 12
  NDA Minor    6
  RJD              6

NDA Minor vs INC - 5
  NDA Minor    2
  INC              2
  AIMIM          1

NDA Minor vs Left - 1
  NDA Minor    0
  Left              1

It is clear that INC is the weak link in UPA and JD(U) is the weak link in NDA.   So what is critical are the JD(U) vs INC vs LJP seats.  Out of 28 of these seats JD(U) won 17 to INC 10 despite LJP being there to eat into the anti-Nitish Kumar BJP vote.  INC proved to be an even weaker link than JD(U) leading to narrow NDA victory.

Left turned out to be the strongest leg of UPA.  They even fought BJP to a near draw even as BJP defeated RJD by a good margin in their 1-on-1 matcheups

Just to quantify the impact of LJP.

Out of the 136 seats where LJP or a pro-LJP independent (and a BJP rebel) ran: UPA won 77 seats and NDA 55 (4 going to others.)  Out of the 107 seats LJP did not run: NDA won 70 seats and UPA 33 (4 going to others.)

Just focusing in on the 28 seats where it was JD(U) vs INC vs LJP the result was


                           Contest          Win           Vote share           
JD(U)                       28              17              35.96%   

LJP                          28               0               10.25%

INC                         28              10              33.56%

GDSF                      27                1                6.91%
 RLSP                       9                0                1.33%
 BSP                       11                0                3.12%
 AIMIM                     3                1                2.27%
 SJDD                       1                0               0.06%
 JP(S)                       3                0                0.12%

The NDA+LJP vote share seems pretty consistent with overall results but INC clearly underperformed UPA numbers.  Going by above average performance of BSP and AIMIM here it seems it was anti-NDA Dalit and Muslim voters failed to consolidate completely behind INC leading to defeat in this bloc of seats.  Since JD(U) and INC are the weakest link of their respectively alliance a JD(U) win in these seats is the critical factor in UPA's failure to win a majority.

In JD(U) vs RJD vs LJP seats with the LJP getting the anti-JD(U) BJP vote the RJD was able to beat out JD(U) by more than 2 to 1 in terms of seats by consolidating the anti-NDA vote.

Ultimately INC's problem is the lack of a face of the party.  BJP has Modi, JD(U) has Nitish Kumar even if his brand is damaged he is still a face, RJD has Tejashwi Yadav and LJP has Chirag Paswan.  INC in theory have Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi but their brand no longer has appeal to the youth and barely has any influence to older INC Upper Caste and Dalit base voters.  For INC to revive it has to find and support local leaders that can directly appeal to the electorate.

Jaichind, make sure you're writing CPI(ML)L, don't want to confuse them with the CPI(ML)!

Good point.  I got lazy.  In Biahr CPI(ML) is really not active so CPI(ML)L is sort of THE CPI(ML) in Bihar ergo I just go with CPI(ML).  The Indian extreme Left does what the extreme Left does everywhere and mimic Life of Brian and the various Judean Liberation Front splinters.

does the commie surge in the region give them any long term opportunities?

Its not just the Commies who are fissiparous in Indian politics tbf.

How many variants of Congress or Janata parties have there been down the years? :)

Perhaps.  This election, in retrospect, played into the hands of cadre based parties.  Due to the COVID-19 crisis with large number migrant workers streaming back into Bihar had given the edge to political formations have have local party cadres that can help with day to day needs of the population.  That means BJP with its RSS organization, the Left parties, and to some extent RJD gaining in this election.  Parties totally based on ideas or personality like JD(U) and INC clearly lost ground.  BJP is in the best position as it has Modi as a brand AND the local RSS and BJP cadres dealing with retail politics.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/nda-meet-on-sunday-to-choose-its-leader-in-bihar-says-nitish-kumar/story-StluIliwHSkWJxSm8GK9PI.html

NDA meet on Sunday to choose its leader in Bihar, says Nitish Kumar

Nitish Kumar it talking down on the prospect that he will be the next CM while BJP is talking up Nitish Kumar being the next CM

I am sure this is a series of mind games between Nitish Kumar and BJP as all this is about power sharing at the ministry level.  The "hidden flaw" of the BJP in Bihar is that they are not able to really project a CM candidate.  It is not just lack of talent but that BJP is an alliance of Upper Caste and OBC Hindu voters.  So if the BJP promote an Upper Caste CM then the OBC vote will defect to RJD.  If the BJP promotes an OBC CM then the Upper Caste vote might defect to INC.

So Nitish Kumar's position is: he will not throw his hat into the ring and once the BJP sees there is no alternative to Nitish Kumar they will come running to him and het gets to dictate terms. 

The BJP position is: We will make Nitish Kumar CM despite BJP being the largest NDA party and in return BJP should get a lion's share of the ministries and power.

We will see how this game of chicken plays out.

Notwithstanding Tejashwi Yadav claims of fraud and demands of recount, he has clearly established himself as the undisputed leader of RJD and the clear leader of the anti-NDA pole in Bihar.  Even if he missed this time, the next election in Bihar will be 2026 when I suspect he will be favorite to come to power and even then he will still be just 36 and on track to be one of the youngest CMs in modern Indian history.

CPI(ML) is the historical party. Folded in 1970, so it's "really not active" anywhere.  Formally, the CPI(ML)(L) declares itself to be the CPI(ML), of course, but in other areas, the CPI(ML)'s heirs are Naxalbaris, or trade unionists, etc...

I had thought that CPI(ML) was in theory still around but you are right.  There are many CPI(ML) splinters out there all claiming to be THE CPI(ML).  CPI(ML)L I guess it the biggest of them.  And yes, a bunch of those splinters have rejected electoral politics for other legal or illegal means.

https://theprint.in/politics/almost-70-of-mlas-in-bihars-new-assembly-face-criminal-cases-up-10-from-the-last-one/543130/

70% of Bihar's newly election MLA have a criminal record.  About half of them for serious crimes like rape or murder.

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/161120/bihar-cm-nitish-kumar-all-set-to-take-oath-today-2-deputy-cms-likely.html

"Bihar CM Nitish Kumar all set to take oath today; 2 deputy CMs likely too"

Nitish Kumar elected as leader of NDA in Bihar which means he will become CM once again.  This time the BJP has demanded: 2 DCM, speaker, and Home minister.  It seems that Nitish Kumar has already agreed to 2 BJP DCM.  Not clear on the BJP Speaker and Home Minister but most likely Nitish Kumar, who is much reduced, will have to accept.   A BJP Speaker is critical as if BJP and JD(U) were to have a falling out and JD(U) split along pro-BJP and anti-BJP lines a BJP Speaker will be critical for the BJP to hold on to a majority.

With INC doing relatively badly in the Bihar assembly elections and being blamed by RJD for UPA's narrow defeat, another round of low intensity complaints against Rahul Gandhi are rising up in INC.  At the same time Obama's new book describes Rahul Gandhi as " lacking ‘either aptitude or passion to master the subject (of politics’)" which many in INC publicly complain about but privately seem to agree with.   

https://theprint.in/politics/obamas-description-of-rahul-gandhi-apt-many-congress-leaders-say-in-private/545786/

Overall my view is Rahul Gandhi has been getting better on the stump but still lack that killer instinct to go for victory on the long term by throwing enough time and energy into the INC recovery program.

Several BJP ruled states are passing laws against "Love Jihad".  Haryana has done so already

MP is the latest and UP is next

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/181120/madhya-pradesh-assembly-to-bring-love-jihad-law-make-it-non-bailabl.html

The idea is to stop Muslims men from marrying Hindu to convert them into Muslims and bear Muslim children as an explicit deliberate strategy.  I think the core issue is to stop inter-faith marriages as well as inter-caste marriages.   The various Hindu "anti-Romeo squads" are really the same idea.  Now it will be the law in many states.

IN J&K the first elections will take place since the Article 370 was removed last year for the first phase local DCC councils on Nov 28.  Rivals like JKNC and PDP have formed the Gupkar Alliance (PAGD) along with CPM JPPC and ANC (a JKNC splinter) with a goal of restoring Article 370.

Originally it seems PAGD was going to boycott the polls but it seems last minute they are going to contest.  It seems INC has a tacit support of PAGD without explicit support of it.    In Kashmir it is clear PAGD will sweep polls but in Jammu a de facto PAGD and INC alliance should defeat the BJP is several districts.

BJP is taking advantage of this to squeeze the Hindu vote away from INC by tagging INC as an ally of PAGD which BJP have claimed is now supported by foreign powers (read Pakistan) to undermine India.

Looking ahead there are 4 assembly elections in 2021 (WB, Assam, TN, Kerala)

WB - Will be an AITC vs BJP battle.  This time it seems INC will got for a full alliance with Left Front (in 2015 it was a partial one).  I doubt this will save INC-Left Front since there will be tactical voting for AITC to stop BJP and tactical voting for BJP to stop AITC.  There has been significant defections from AITC INC and Left Front to BJP anticipating a big BJP surge.  Most likely it will not be enough for BJP to win but it seem that BJP will have a good shot a winning in 2021 and very good shot at winning in 2026 even if BJP does not win in 2021.

Assam - BJP will struggled to beat back anti-incumbency and blowback over CAA.  BJP will pretty much drop BPF as an ally but keep AGP.  Most likely BJP will rope in UPP as its Bodo ally.  In 2014 BJP was allied with UPP fighting against INC allied with BPF.  For 2016 assembly elections BJP and INC swapped partners and not like square dancing they might swap back.  INC, it seems, will form an alliance with AIUDF.  Most likely with will backfire.  The Muslim vote is very concentrated in Lower Assam and while an INC-AIUDF alliance might prevent some BJP victories in Muslim majority districts where the Muslim vote are split between INC and AIUDF, this will for sure lose Hindu votes for INC in Upper Assam and there will be for sure INC or AIUDF rebels in the fray in Lower Assam undercutting the INC-AIUDF alliance.  INC will also try to form tactical alliances with the new anti-BJP anti-CAA parties AJP and AJCP.  AJP is formed by the Assam regionalist AASU which launched AGP back in the 1980s but now AGP continuing its alliance with BJP despite CAA decided to form another anti-CAA party.  I think the votes are there to defeat BJP-AGP-UPP but most likely they will be splinted leading to a solid shot of the BJP to win re-eelction.

Kerala - INC led UDF has a clear edge over CPM lead LDF.  Key thing to watch is the BJP vote share.  The BJP had a surge in 2016 and it will be interesting to see if they can continue their upward jump.

TN - DMK-INC has a clear edge over AIADMK-BJP.  Scale of victory will depend on how the many smaller parties decide to align with the blocs of run on their own.  If we go with 2019 alignments it will be DMK-INC-VCK-CPI-CPM-IMUL-IJK-KDMK-MDMK vs AIADMK -PMK-BJP-DMDK-PNK-PT-TMC.  MDMK and DMDK will be demanding on a large number of seats and both have the chance of running on their own.  The on again off again talk of movie superstar Rajinikanth forming his own party ahead of the 2021 elections is back on again.  There were similar talk before the 2016 assembly elections and 2019 LS election with nothing taking place.  The fact that the BJP locked up an alliance with AIADMK so quickly versus waiting to form a third front alliance with a Rajinikanth party implies that the BJP does not believe this will go anywhere.

Couple of local elections coming up which are indicators of the BJP offensive.

In early Dec there will be elections in the autonomous  Bodoland Territorial Council of Assam.  The BJP is going all out to take over from its ally BPF.  The key fact is that despite forming a plurality of the BTC areas, Bodos does not form a majority.  So if a non-BPF party can consolidate non-Bodos plus getting some Bodo votes it can oust BPF.  This time the BJP seems determined to drop BPF as an ally for the 2021 Assam assembly elections.  There have been a lot of BPF defections to BJP and now there is a solid chance of BJP taking over the BTC from BPF.
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Also in early Dec there will be elections to the plurality in Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation in Telengana.  Hyderabad is around 52% Hindu and 44% Muslim.  The Muslims are concentrated in one part of the city.  As a result AIMIM always wins a bunch of seats but not a majority since they have no chance in part of the city where Muslims are not the majority.  It used to be INC vs TDP in the Hindu sections of the city but in 2015 TRS which is a tactical ally of AIMIM swept the Hindu seats.  This time around the BJP is making an aggressive move to take over the Hindu seats and win control of the GHMC.  The BJP plan seems to be to tag TRS as an ally of AIMIM to drive old INC Hindu votes toward BJP.  Even if BJP does not win it plans to wipe out the INC in GHMC and establish itself as the main opposition to TRS in Hyderabad en route to doing the same in Telenagana overall.

Times of India projection on what the seat sharing might look like for TN assembly elections between the two blocs (DMK+ and AIADMK+)

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I doubt INC will accept 20-25 seats but their relative utility to DMK is much lower than in 2016 now that AIADMK is leaderless and DMK has mostly consolidated behind M. K. Stalin.  I still think INC will get more than 20 seats but it will be less than the 41 it got back in 2016 especially now MDMK is in the DMK fold.

One key X-factor will be the fact that former AIADMK leader VK Sasikala will be let out of prison within a couple of weeks.  With AIADMK without a charismatic leader at the top (CM EPS and AIADMK OPS are good political operators but lack mass appeal) there might be more defections from AIADMK to AIADMK splinter AMMK led by VK Sasikala's nephew TTV Dhinakaran.

I think this is why AIADMK want to stick up an alliance with BJP so quickly even though the BJP brand in TN is fairly toxic.  While BJP will not get AIADMK any votes the BJP, with federal resources at its disposal can facilitate mass defections to AMMK from AIADMK by forming an alliance with AMMK.  Likewise BJP could also facilitate a merger between AIADMK and AMMK.  To some extent AIADMK is mostly accepting that 2021 assembly election is lost and is now mostly working to make sure that AIADMK is in one piece after the 2021 elections.  This is where having BJP on its side is critical.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/rajinikanth-to-launch-political-party-in-january/article33237993.ece

In TN, movie superstar Rajinikanth will launch his party in Jan.  This could upset various political equations for the TN assembly elections in 2021.  Most likely not.  It is not clear if Rajinikanth himself will run and be the CM candidate of the new party and risk the humiliation of personal defeat.  If he does not I suspect his party will go nowhere although might pick up 5%-10% as a novelty faction only to decline from the next election.  One way for this to have a big impact would be for Rajinikanth to run as CM candidate with an alliance with BJP.  Rajinikanth party-BJP combo will not win but could get a fair amount of seats.  As it is BJP seems to have, for better or worse, picked AIADMK to be its ally so this scenario will most likely not come to pass.

Hyderabad Municipal Corporation election took place a couple of days ago and the count is tomorrow.  Turnout was not much higher than it was in 2016.

Back in 2016 it was TRS 102 seats, AIMIM 42, TDP-BJP 4, INC 1.

People Pluse exit polls for 2020 elections has a solid TRS victory despite a massive effort by BJP to beat out TRS in an upset.  Exit poll has TRS 68-78, AIMIM 38-40, BJP 25-35 which is a massive improvement from 2016, INC 1-5.  Vote share wise exit poll has TRS at 36% BJP 32%, AIMIM 13% and INC 12%.  It seems some of the Muslim vote shifted to TRS to beat back BJP.

Other exit poll has an even larger TRS victory

List of all Hyderabad Municipal Corporation election exit polls

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BJP making gains relative to TRS but nowhere as much as they hoped.  But they are making good progress toward displacing INC as the alternative to TRS in urban Telangana

Hyderabad Municipal Corporation  count in progress.

Out of 146 with leads it is

TRS     65
BJP      41
AIMIM  37
INC       3

BJP doing a bit better than exit polls.   BJP clearly cutting into the TRS Hindu vote which actually at the margins helped INC gain a couple of seats.  TRS-AIMIM will form a post-election alliance and capture the mayor position is beyond doubt. Still BJP is a winner since they now are established as the alternative to TRS in  Hyderabad.

As more results come in the count is getting more favorable for the BJP which is clearly outperforming exit polls

TRS     56  (-43)
BJP      49  (+45)
AIMIM  43  (-1)
INC       2  (--)

AIMIM continued to sweep the deep Muslim districts just like 2016 but BJP eats into the TRS Hindu vote to take over 40 seats away from TRS.

So in the end the Hyderabad Municipal Corporation results are

TRS      55(-44)
BJP       48(+44)
AIMIM   44(--)
INC         2(--)

with 1 seat where it is pending recount most likely going to TRS.

The places where BJP flipped TRS seats were as expected, areas closer to the Muslim quarters where Muslims make up a significant minority but not majority of the ward.  In those wards the Hindu vote consolidated behind the BJP to defeat TRS and AIMIM and flipped the TRS seat.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/nationwide-farmers-strike-shuts-down-large-parts-of-india

The scale of farmer protest over the new farm law is getting larger and larger with large number protesters from Punjab and Haryana and some from UP blocking roads in and out of New Delhi.  Modi is now facing one of the toughest challenges of his reign.  The new farm law opens up different markets were farms can sell their goods but will lead to the ending of MSP (minimum support price) regime that was in place since the 1960s where the government will buy farm products at a minimum price which puts a floor on farm prices.  The government now has a massive surplus of food stored up and has been reduced to throwing away the food it bought given the agriculture production surge last couple of decades.   

If Modi back down I think his regime would lose credibility but if he does not the economic impact of all these blockades will add to the economic pain on top of the COVID-19 lockdown hits. 

Bodoland Territorial Council of Assam election results are out.  It is

BPF    17
UPPL  12
BJP      9
INC     1
GSP     1

Even though BPF UPPL BJP INC-AIUDF ran separately it was clear that BJP and UPPL planned to form a post election alliance just like BPF was planning on getting INC-AIUDF support in case it could not win a majority on its own.  Looks like UPPL-BJP managed to win a bare majority and edges out BPF in a major setback for BPF as it is clear part of the BPF vote has shifted to BJP given the need for federal subsidies for BTC.

This sets the stage for the 2021 Assam assembly elections alliance to revert to 2014 LS pattern of BJP-UPPL vs INC-BPF in Bodoland.  In 2016 assembly elections the partners were flipped with BJP-BPF vs INC-UPPL.

UPPL head Promode Bodo will take over BTC with a 22-18 majority for UPPL-BJP-GSP.  BPF leader Hagrama Mohilary  loses control of BTC for the first time since it was created in 2003.

J&K DCC election results coming in.  So far with leads it is

PAGD     111 (JKN, PDP and CPM alliance dedicated to restoring Article 270)
BJP          75
INC         27
JKAP       13 (PDP splinter)
Others     52 (mostly independents in Kashmir)

BJP won a few seats in Muslim dominated Kashmir which is a shock.  I guess with J&K becoming a Territory where the Central government has control of the local police meant some local Muslim factions have gone over to the BJP to get the police on their side.  BJP actually underperformed in Jammu where the INC was able to win some seats in Hindu areas despite expectations that the BJP will sweep all Hindu seats.

Results of J&K DCC elections

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Voting was held in 280 seats - 14 in each of the 20 districts of the union territory.

As mentioned before BJP won 3 seats in Kashmir which is a breakthrough for the BJP.  In Jammu BJP underperformed with PAGD alliance winning in Muslim parts of Jammu and INC managing to win some seats in Hindu parts of Jammu.  Since J&K was made a union territory the power of JKN and PDP have been broken somewhat in Kasmir with large number of independents (many which I am sure are radicals) winning seats. 

Vote share in J&K DCC elections

INC actually did reasonably well under the circumstances in terms of vote share given the Muslim-Hindu polarization between PAGD alliance and BJP.  INC, it seems, got a good amount of Hindu votes in Jammu as well some Muslim votes in Kashmir
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As mentioned before BJP's vote share in Jammu is quite a drop from 2019 LS elections.  In 2019 LS elections JKN and PDP de facto backed INC in Jammu which merely consolidated the Hindu vote behind BJP in response to Muslim consolidation behind INC.  This time around with JKN-PDP led PAGD alliance running separately from INC the Muslim vote mostly went with PAGD in Jammu while some Hindu votes shifted back to INC
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Seat wise in the 4 Hindu dominated districts the BJP still took almost all the seats but INC, PAGD was able to fight the BJP to a 3 way draw in mixed districts while PAGD dominated the Muslim dominated districts
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Even though there was a slight uptick in BJP support in Kashmir the results in Jammu will give BJP some pause before pushing for assembly elections in J&K.  It will have to take place in 2021 but now it seems it will be later in 2021 than early 2021.

Just as the year is about to end, TN movie superstar Rajinikanth announces he will NOT form a new party in early 2021 contrary to what he announced just a month ago

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/rajini-junks-political-plans-after-warning-from-god/articleshow/80018763.cms

He claims this is due to a "warning from God" but more likely he concluded that despite the death of Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha since 2016, neither DMK nor AIADMK will fall apart in 2021 assembly elections making his party at beat a distant third in a 2021 election. 

On paper this helps BJP since Rajinikanth and BJP are close and perhaps he might end up endorsing the AIADMK-BJP bloc.  In reality a Rajinikanth  party would most likely create more churn in the party system when status quo favors a DMK bloc victory given AIADMK's lack of a charismatic leader and double anti-incumbency.