Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Tender Branson on January 01, 2020, 04:37:51 PM



Title: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on January 01, 2020, 04:37:51 PM
Kurz and Kogler have just announced the creation of the 1st ÖVP-Green government.

https://orf.at/stories/3149364

The cabinet and program will be presented tomorrow at 4pm at the Academy of Science.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2020, 02:51:26 AM
Austria’s Kurz to Govern With Green Party in Unlikely Partnership

Quote
Seven months after his conservative party’s coalition with the far right collapsed in a spectacular scandal, Sebastian Kurz, Austria’s former chancellor, announced a new government with the leftist Green party late Wednesday.

“These were demanding negotiations, but the result is a very good one,” Mr. Kurz told reporters. “Both we and the Greens will be able to honor the central election promises we made.”

Since Austria’s snap elections in September, it had been unclear whether Mr. Kurz would revive a politically costly coalition with the far right or reach across the political spectrum to the Greens, his ideological opposites.

With the pivot, Mr. Kurz seems intent on demonstrating a willingness to make the ideological compromises needed for a stable government. For the Greens, the coalition presents a chance to show that their party is capable of governing with an establishment conservative party at a national level.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/world/europe/austria-kurz-greens-coalition-government.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2020, 03:03:56 AM
The new government will have a strong center-right lean, with the Greens accepting a preventive imprisonment for potentially dangerous people (terrorists in the making, asylum seekers, but also regular people who are likely to kill their wives etc. after a domestic abuse history. Such laws exist in 15/28 EU countries already, for example in the Netherlands and Belgium).

The Greens also agreed to a headscarf ban for public schools up to 14 years of age and additional repatriation centers for asylum seekers.

The ÖVP told the Greens if they want further measures against Neo-Nazi or Right-wing extremism, they will also have to agree to additional measures to combat political Islam, which they agreed to.

The family benefit/tax cut will be extended as well, as well as a general tax cut which should be passed this year.

German-lesson classes for young migrant kids will remain. The policy of balanced budgets for the next years to come will remain as well.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000112844273/was-wir-ueber-das-regierungsprogramm-wissen

To me it seems the ÖVP has clearly shown the Greens where their place is in the coalition and they have been by far victorious in the talks.

Even in the huge and important Green-led Environmental Ministry, the ÖVP will have big influence with their state secretary.

As we'd say here: "Die Grünen wurden abgeräumt wie ein Weihnachtsbaum." (The Green Christmas tree was raided by the ÖVP)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2020, 03:33:31 AM
Austrian media calls the new government a massive Conservative/ÖVP power grab (with a Green appendix).

Next week, Chancellor Kurz will return as the youngest head of state in the world (he's 2 years younger than Finland's Sanna Marin).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2020, 09:02:07 AM
Ulrike Lunacek - former Green Party leader, Member of the EU parliament and lesbian - is the final puzzle in the new government.

She will become State Secretary in the Vice-Chancellor office and deputy of Werner Kogler and will be responsible for Arts and Culture.

Lunacek briefly took over the Greens together with Ingrid Felipe in the summer of 2017, following Eva Glawischnig's resignation and at a time when the Greens were already in huge trouble. At the election, the Greens got decimated and thrown out of parliament. After the election, Lunacek announced her resignation from all political offices.

Presentation of the new government in ca. 1 hour.

Live stream:

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Praesentation-des-Regierungsprogramms/14046220


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2020, 09:38:04 AM
Kurz (ÖVP) and Kogler (Greens) have just met President Van der Bellen (Greens) and informed him about the successful conclusion of their government talks.

The swearing-in is planned for Tuesday.

()
Source: APA

With Lunacek confirmed as the last cabinet member, it will consist of 17 people (Chancellor, Vice-Chancellor, 13 ministers and 2 state secretaries).

That's one more than ÖVP-FPÖ had.

Kurz II will be the first majority-female cabinet (9-8).

It will also be the youngest ever: several are in their 30s and the average age is in the 40s.

It will be the first cabinet with a minister with migrant background (but that is debatable, because Kurz's grandmother is from Serbia, Strache's father was from Czechia, Heinz Fassmann - who was education minister and will continue to be - was born in Germany and Muna Duzdar - who was State Secretary in the Kern government - has Palestinian parents).

It will also not be the 1st government with a gay/lesbian minister (the current Minister for Education in the Bierlein government, Iris Rauskala, is openly lesbian).

All states except the small Burgenland will be represented in the new government:

()
Source: ORF


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2020, 09:51:47 AM
Here is a chart with the new Kurz II members:

()
Source: APA/ORF Infographics


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2020, 11:25:09 AM
The coalition contract was just forwarded to the journalists:

https://s55.workupload.com/download/Nr32mmmE

(PDF, 328 pages, 50MB)

The Green delegates now have 1 day to read this 328-page thing and vote on it on Saturday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2020, 12:06:15 PM
Reuters Factbox on some coalition highlights:

http://news.trust.org/item/20200102162628-gx9lw/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2020, 01:55:13 AM
The coalition contract was just forwarded to the journalists:

https://s55.workupload.com/download/Nr32mmmE

(PDF, 328 pages, 50MB)

The Green delegates now have 1 day to read this 328-page thing and vote on it on Saturday.

For those who don’t want to read the full 328 pages of the ÖVP-Green coalition agreement, here’s the official KURZ-Fassung (short version) of the thing in 42 pages:

https://www2.krone.at/pdf/Regierungsprogramm_Kurzfassung.pdf


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2020, 04:25:39 AM
The latest "Heute" poll:

"Which politicians do you have high hopes for in 2020 ?"

()

https://www.heute.at/s/wer-wird-polit-aufsteiger-des-jahres--55899663

Werner Kogler has extremely high numbers for the 15-17% party. Which means he also has the biggest potential to disappoint.

On the other hand, Doskozil and Ludwig (both SPÖ governors in Burgenland and Vienna) are very underrated.

Both of them will - unlike federal SPÖ trends - win HUGE victories for the SPÖ this year.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2020, 04:38:24 AM
On the other hand, Doskozil and Ludwig (both SPÖ governors in Burgenland and Vienna) are very underrated.

Both of them will - unlike federal SPÖ trends - win HUGE victories for the SPÖ this year.

An SPÖ internal poll obtained by the "Krone" for the January 26 Burgenland state election indeed has the SPÖ at 41-43% (unchanged from 2015) and the ÖVP 10 points behind. The FPÖ is at 10% (-5).

This is significant, because it would mean Dosko is stabilizing the party at a high level in the state and keep the ÖVP away. In the EU and Federal elections, the ÖVP won Burgenland. If Dosko wins big (he has 80% approval ratings), he could choose to govern with the FPÖ again, or with the ÖVP or with the Greens (although he's no big fan of the Greens).

https://www.krone.at/2070457

And in Vienna (which has a SPÖ-Green government and probably will vote in the fall), Mayor Michael Ludwig is out with first campaign posters:

"Together, we are more colourful. For respect and tolerance."

()
Source: SPÖ Vienna

"Together, we are stronger. For a society that sticks together."

()
Source: SPÖ Vienna

"Together, we are more determined. For the unrestricted adherence of human rights."

()
Source: SPÖ Vienna

While there was some scepticism about Ludwig when he started his term 2 years ago ("FPÖ-friendly"), he turned out to be very anti-FPÖ and ruled out such a coalition and his approvals are also on the strongly positive side.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 03, 2020, 08:13:46 AM
Tender, would you mind summarizing what previous political posts and experience the ministers in the new government has? 


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2020, 08:54:50 AM
Tender, would you mind summarizing what previous political posts and experience the ministers in the new government has? 

Please run this page here through Google translator:

https://orf.at/stories/3149514


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2020, 09:12:24 AM
The ÖVP leadership committee has just unanimously accepted the ÖVP-Green coalition deal.

Here a picture of the new ÖVP cabinet members:

()

Source: ÖVP / ORF

https://orf.at/stories/3149643

The first, not that important committee meeting of the Greens takes place today as well - but the delegate meeting tomorrow will be the important one.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2020, 10:01:27 AM
This analysis of the government program from the Kleine Zeitung is pretty good:

https://interaktiv.kleinezeitung.at/die-analyse-das-ist-das-tuerkis-gruene-regierungsprogramm/

Run through Google Translator if you want ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: bigic on January 03, 2020, 12:16:01 PM
I will try reading the entire coalition program with the aid of Google Translate. I will publish my thoughts on it later.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2020, 12:22:08 PM
I will try reading the entire coalition program with the aid of Google Translate. I will publish my thoughts on it later.

The whole 328 pages ?

OK ... :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2020, 03:55:18 PM
After the ÖVP leadership committee approved the coalition deal unanimously today, the Green one did as well at their meeting in Salzburg:

https://orf.at/stories/3149673

So, the first Green hurdle is cleared, the more important delegate/party base vote will follow tomorrow and they tend to be more critical (but a rejection is extremely unlikely). The Greens know what’s at stake here. The ÖVP could also govern with the FPÖ instead.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2020, 01:06:35 AM
Here’s a picture of the Green government team, in addition to the ÖVP team yesterday:

()

Source: ORF/APA

Today: the important delegate vote on the coalition deal. About 300 Green delegates are eligible to vote at the Salzburg Congress Center. On Twitter, some from the far-left of the party have already announced they will vote against the deal, so something like a 90-95% approval seems very likely.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2020, 05:00:53 AM
What does Austria's new governing coalition mean for migrants ? (https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/21878/what-does-austria-s-new-governing-coalition-mean-for-migrants)

Austria's New Government Sets Goal to Be Carbon Neutral by 2040 (https://www.ecowatch.com/austria-government-climate-change-2643731503.html)

Austria coalition government to crack down on pollution, Muslims (https://www.governmenteuropa.eu/austria-coalition-government/96014/)

Former Bosnian Refugee to Become Austria’s New Justice Minister (https://balkaninsight.com/2020/01/03/former-bosnian-refugee-to-become-austrias-new-justice-minister/)

Austria backs green agenda with new coalition deal (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50969001)

What's also interesting is the "crisis management" paragraph in the migration section of the coalition deal, which creates some sort of coalition-free room in the event that a new migration wave is building on the Balkan or Italy.

If such a scenario becomes reality and the Greens are opposed to tough measures to protect the border, the crisis management paragraph says that the ÖVP can "pass laws to protect the border etc." for example with the FPÖ.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2020, 05:14:18 AM
The ÖVP-Green government experiment is also stared at with Argus-eyes from Germany:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wer-seine-Ziele-vergisst-schwaecht-sich-selbst/411859050

Germany votes in 2021 (most likely) and could also get a Black-Green government.

German Green leader Habeck said that "the Austrian Greens managed to move the ÖVP back from the Far-Right corner into the center and that this is something to applaud. But compromise is not endless and if you enter too many compromises, you weaken the party."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2020, 09:49:26 AM
Video of the Green delegate vote for the coalition contract with the ÖVP:

https://uvp.apa.at/embed/0a81ad0d-346d-4c1d-b97b-94acfa43a352

The leadership has already pleaded to vote in favour of the deal, now there's a 3-hour discussion going on.

The vote is expcted at ~ 6pm.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2020, 11:24:57 AM
The Green delegates have approved the coalition deal with 93.2%

()
Source: Standard/APA

https://orf.at/stories/3149748


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2020, 11:54:44 AM
The Green delegates also just approved their 5 new government members with 99.3%:



Sebastian Kurz has congratulated the Greens on their vote:



The ÖVP-Green government will now be sworn in by President Van der Bellen (Greens) on Tuesday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 04, 2020, 01:10:54 PM
A similar proportion to the number of LibDems who approved the coalition deal with the Tories in 2010 - hopefully for the Austrian Greens, it turns out rather better for them.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on January 04, 2020, 01:16:47 PM
A similar proportion to the number of LibDems who approved the coalition deal with the Tories in 2010 - hopefully for the Austrian Greens, it turns out rather better for them.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on January 04, 2020, 01:20:39 PM
is this the first time the Greens have been in government in Austrian history? As a party in cabinet itself.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2020, 02:07:10 PM
A similar proportion to the number of LibDems who approved the coalition deal with the Tories in 2010 - hopefully for the Austrian Greens, it turns out rather better for them.

Remains to be seen.

Generally, the junior party in coalitions suffers losses in the following election.

Not always, but most of the time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2020, 02:09:30 PM
is this the first time the Greens have been in government in Austrian history? As a party in cabinet itself.

Yes, at the federal level.

On the state level, the Greens are already part of the government in 5/9 states right now.

They used to be in government in another (Carinthia), but not any longer.

They have never been in government in 3 so far (Lower Austria, Styria, Burgenland).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: rob in cal on January 04, 2020, 03:55:32 PM
  The tax cuts seem pretty substantial. Is this something that had been campaigned on by the OVP? It will be intresting  to see Green party members of parliament voting for this.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 05, 2020, 03:56:30 AM
  The tax cuts seem pretty substantial. Is this something that had been campaigned on by the OVP? It will be interesting to see Green party members of parliament voting for this.

Some news media have added up all the proposals and investments that ÖVP-Greens are planning and the costs would be ~10 billion € per year.

That cannot be financed. I don't know where all the money should come from if the budget should remain balanced. They are not only planning income tax cuts, but also a cut in corporate and property taxes, an expansion of family benefits and billion € investments into infrastructure, public transport etc. I think they have to scale back on some things.

Anyway, the government gets sworn in on Tuesday 11am:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000112944598/angelobung-der-bundesregierung-erfolgt-am-dienstag


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: republicanbayer on January 05, 2020, 08:04:39 AM
  The tax cuts seem pretty substantial. Is this something that had been campaigned on by the OVP? It will be interesting to see Green party members of parliament voting for this.

Some news media have added up all the proposals and investments that ÖVP-Greens are planning and the costs would be ~10 billion € per year.

That cannot be financed. I don't know where all the money should come from if the budget should remain balanced. They are not only planning income tax cuts, but also a cut in corporate and property taxes, an expansion of family benefits and billion € investments into infrastructure, public transport etc. I think they have to scale back on some things.

Anyway, the government gets sworn in on Tuesday 11am:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000112944598/angelobung-der-bundesregierung-erfolgt-am-dienstag

Are these proposed tax cuts instead of or in addition to the ÖVP/FPÖ tax cuts?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 05, 2020, 10:53:18 AM
  The tax cuts seem pretty substantial. Is this something that had been campaigned on by the OVP? It will be interesting to see Green party members of parliament voting for this.

Some news media have added up all the proposals and investments that ÖVP-Greens are planning and the costs would be ~10 billion € per year.

That cannot be financed. I don't know where all the money should come from if the budget should remain balanced. They are not only planning income tax cuts, but also a cut in corporate and property taxes, an expansion of family benefits and billion € investments into infrastructure, public transport etc. I think they have to scale back on some things.

Anyway, the government gets sworn in on Tuesday 11am:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000112944598/angelobung-der-bundesregierung-erfolgt-am-dienstag

Are these proposed tax cuts instead of or in addition to the ÖVP/FPÖ tax cuts?

The income tax reform/cuts are the continuation of what ÖVP-FPÖ proposed until their coalition blew apart.

Everything else is new.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 05, 2020, 11:32:51 AM
The designated Justice Minister Alma Zadic is still getting bombarded with racist and anti-Muslim abuse from the disgusting FPÖ-folk on social media ("Muslim b*tch", "should be hanged at the next tree", etc).

()
Source: Green Party

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000112926392/hassposter-verschaerfen-angriffe-auf-kuenftige-jusizministerinzadic

The Greens made clear today that she's not even a Muslim, but "without religion" or "non-practising" (as if it even matters).

FPÖ-leader Hofer also said today that the FPÖ is opposed to Zadic becoming Justice Minister, because she's a "convicted criminal" and that President VdB should not swear in a "convicted criminal" as minister on Tuesday.

Hofer: "It would show the true colours of Green President VdB if he swears her in, but removed Herbert Kickl (FPÖ) from the office of Interior Minister, a man with no previous criminal record."

https://orf.at/stories/3149810

Zadic was sentenced to a 700€ fine by a Vienna court last year in the 1st instance, after she posted a picture on her Social Media account of a far-right fraternity member apparently showing the Nazi/Hitler salute directed at Fridays for Future protesters. She captioned the picture with "Zero tolerance to Nazis."

The guy in the picture sued her for libel/defamation or something and won.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 06, 2020, 01:14:33 AM
Carola Rocket says Kurz is an eco-fascist, because he wants to protect the environment and borders at the same time:



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 06, 2020, 04:45:21 AM
There's now an English Wikipedia page as well for the new government:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Kurz_government


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 06, 2020, 07:33:36 AM
It's odd, because Zadic was ex-Pilz List member, and they were the faction of the Greens that were most anti-immigration. She's not part of the immigration soft faction, FPO cadre!


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 06, 2020, 07:45:57 AM
It's odd, because Zadic was ex-Pilz List member, and they were the faction of the Greens that were most anti-immigration. She's not part of the immigration soft faction, FPO cadre!

List Pilz was only a bit more actively in favour of battling political Islam in Autria, something the Greens used to ignore in the past.

On immigration and asylum itself, List Pilz and Zadic held roughly the same views.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 06, 2020, 09:15:30 AM
On the last day of her term, the first female Chancellor of Austria says "Goodbye":

Link (https://www.bundeskanzleramt.gv.at/bundeskanzleramt/nachrichten-der-bundesregierung/2020/brigitte-bierlein-oesterreich-dienen-zu-duerfen-war-die-groesste-ehre-meines-lebens.html)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 07, 2020, 12:14:02 PM
The new, first ÖVP-Green government was just sworn in with President Van der Bellen administering the oaths of office and signatures and Emperor Maria Theresia closely watching from the wall:

()
Source: Federal President Office


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 07, 2020, 12:45:06 PM
Hilarious:

During the whole government inauguration, the public broadcaster ORF used wrong subtitles from a telenovela ... :P

The Austrian Social Media went nuts.

For example, when the ORF moderator was talking the following subtitle appeared:

„It is over. I’m in love with Christian.“




Title: Kurz youngest worldwide head of state again
Post by: Tender Branson on January 07, 2020, 02:10:01 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_state_leaders_by_age#10_youngest_serving_state_leaders

He’s a bit younger than Sanna Marin from Finland.

Thoughts ?


Title: Re: Kurz youngest worldwide head of state again
Post by: Omega21 on January 07, 2020, 06:13:42 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_state_leaders_by_age#10_youngest_serving_state_leaders

He’s a bit younger than Sanna Marin from Finland.

Thoughts ?

Good in Last Govt., yet to see about his performance this time around.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 08, 2020, 02:46:33 PM
The unemployment rate dropped to a new post-2008/09 recession low of 4.2% in November, according to Eurostat.

That’s -0.5% compared with a year ago and 4th-lowest in Western Europe behind Germany, the Netherlands and the UK.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 09, 2020, 02:19:29 PM
New Ö24 poll (Jan. 3-9):

39% ÖVP (+1.5)
17% Greens (+3.1)
17% SPÖ (-4.2)
12% FPÖ (-4.2)
  9% NEOS (+0.9)
  3% DAÖ (+3.0)
  3% Others (-0.1)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 09, 2020, 02:27:57 PM
Integration Minister Susanne Raab and Chancellor Sebastian Kurz have come out to defend the new Justice Minister Alma Zadic today against the racist abuse and death threats from the FPÖ base.

Zadic is now under constant police protection because of it.

Sickening.

Zadic is a role model of good integration of a refugee in Austria. The FPÖ cannot cope with this and that’s why they want to destroy her.





Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 09, 2020, 02:48:23 PM
Official portraits of the 17 ÖVP-Green government members:

http://fotoservice.bundeskanzleramt.at/bka/portraits_bundesregierung.html

+ the official „family picture“ of Kurz II:

()

Source: Chancellor Office, pictures free to use for political education purposes

Quote
Punkt 3:

Soweit nicht ohnehin das Recht auf freie Werknutzung, insbesondere gemäß § 42 UrhG besteht, erteilt der Bund die

nicht übertragbare,
nicht ausschließliche,
zeitlich und räumlich unbeschränkte
Bewilligung das Bildmaterial des Fotoservice, an dem dem Bund die Rechte zustehen, kostenfrei

zu nicht kommerziellen Zwecken,
zu redaktionellen Zwecken von Medien und
zu Zwecken im Bereich der politischen Bildung
zu vervielfältigen, zu verbreiten, zu senden, öffentlich vorzuführen oder im Internet zur Verfügung zu stellen.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 09, 2020, 03:12:40 PM
()

Greens 2017:

„At his core, Kurz is a Strache.“

()

FPÖ now:

„At his core, Kurz is a Greta.“


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: bigic on January 09, 2020, 08:44:18 PM
Doesn't the billboard have double meaning, considering that Kern was the SPO leader back then?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 10, 2020, 12:15:50 AM
Doesn't the billboard have double meaning, considering that Kern was the SPO leader back then?

Yeah, because it involves all 3 party leaders at the time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 10, 2020, 12:18:28 AM
Today, 9am, in parliament:

Declaration of government by Kurz and Kogler and presentation of the new government.

Also, a law will be passed to re-organize the cabinet responsibilities and an interim budget for 2020 (based on 2019 numbers).

The new budget for 2020 and maybe 2021 will be passed in March/April.

https://orf.at/stories/3150300


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 10, 2020, 10:49:07 AM
Burgenland SPÖ Governor Doskozil knows how to win elections big time at 40%+ even though the federal SPÖ is languishing around at 17%:

„The Green policies are dangerous for the average worker.“

„ÖVP-Green want to secretly introduce voting rights for foreigners.“

Looks like he’s pushing the FPÖ to 5% by winning over their voters and a good amount of Kurz voters from last year.

The state election is in 2 weeks.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 10, 2020, 12:13:14 PM
Former FPÖ-leader Strache has been announced as a so-called "guest speaker" at a Jan. 23 event for the newly created DAÖ (Alliance for Austria).

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3029383

DAÖ has gained another 3 MPs from Vienna this week (now has 6) and could run in the Vienna state election this fall, with Strache as lead candidate.

DAÖ could split the FPÖ-potential in half. Currently, they have around 13-15%, so basically 7% for each party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: rob in cal on January 11, 2020, 02:30:28 AM
  It will be fascinating to watch the SPO and FPO in opposition together, and whether their criticism of th new government start to converge.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 11, 2020, 11:13:28 AM
  It will be fascinating to watch the SPO and FPO in opposition together, and whether their criticism of th new government start to converge.

SPÖ+FPÖ will continue to struggle for the next months, because of all their current and past problems. It won't be so easy to shake off all those allegations and switch into opposition mode.

That's why ÖVP+Greens will have a more-or-less trouble-free 1st 100 days in office.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 11, 2020, 11:21:21 AM
New Ö24 poll (Jan. 3-9):

39% ÖVP (+1.5)
17% Greens (+3.1)
17% SPÖ (-4.2)
12% FPÖ (-4.2)
  9% NEOS (+0.9)
  3% DAÖ (+3.0)
  3% Others (-0.1)

From this poll:

60% approve of the ÖVP-Green government formation (4% more than they get in the poll)

13% say that ÖVP-Greens will last more than 1 term
39% say that it will last the whole term
37% say it will last only 1-2 years
11% say it will break apart this year already

The poll also asked support/opposition for some of ÖVP+Greens coalition policies:

88% support the introduction of a nationwide public transport ticket for 365€ per year
73% support a headscarf ban for Muslim girls up to 14 years of age in school
68% support the planned tax cuts/reform and child benefit expansion
63% support raising the flight ticket fees/additional taxes to combat climate change
63% support the introduction of a Freedom of Information Law for government transparency

Also:

Kurz, Van der Bellen and Kogler remain the most popular politicians, whereas all new government members have mostly balanced numbers and Kickl, Strache and Rendi-Wagner having the worst scores.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Kogler-schon-auf-Platz-2/412735093


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 11, 2020, 11:23:37 AM
Monthly "Profil" poll (worst result for the SPÖ in 150 years of party history):



Title: Re: Kurz youngest worldwide head of state again
Post by: Tender Branson on January 11, 2020, 11:26:38 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_state_leaders_by_age#10_youngest_serving_state_leaders

He’s a bit younger than Sanna Marin from Finland.

Thoughts ?

Good in Last Govt., yet to see about his performance this time around.

Omega, as someone from Bosnia and right-winger, what do you think about Alma Zadic and her becoming Justice Minister in Austria and the heavy online attacks and murder threats from the FPÖ against her ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 11, 2020, 02:33:41 PM
The FPÖ is out with a very good, personal video for their New Years Meeting - acknowledging the mistakes they made in the past year.

Members from their voter base talk about deep disappointment and frustration about these developments on Ibiza, Strache, embezzlement & corruption allegations.

Yet at the end they say it’s time to stick together and correct the mistakes from the past.



This is the kind of attitude the SPÖ would need right now, but even there the FPÖ (!) is having a better grasp than the Social Democrats ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 12, 2020, 12:48:59 PM
New Vienna state election poll for Ö24 (election will likely be held in the fall):

()

Changes compared with 2015:

SPÖ: -8%
ÖVP: +12%
Greens: +5%
FPÖ: -19%
NEOS: +6%
DAÖ: +5%
Others: -1%

This poll is interesting, because Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) has a 68% approval rating, yet the SPÖ apparently drops by 8%.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wien/Umfrage-Wendezeit-im-Rathaus/412749709


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: mileslunn on January 12, 2020, 05:33:15 PM
Could like Germany, Greens replace SPO as main centre-left alternative.  I feel today Greens are better suited for modern day left than are social democrats.  Blue collar workers in smaller communities seem to be drifting rightward so I think tough to win them back although perhaps if like Denmark's social democrats, they combined left of centre economic policies with tough on immigration maybe but that might alienate the immigrant community and their urban educated class.  By contrast Greens are more centered on younger and urban voters and I believe the future of the left is with urban educated class not working class.  That being said US and Canada it is a bit easier as their left are Liberals not social democrats and I find the upper middle class are fine voting Liberal, but social democrat or Green is a bridge too far.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Omega21 on January 13, 2020, 03:38:13 PM
Not really newsworthy or scandalous, but still a bit funny.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hier-goennt-sich-Werner-Kogler-ein-McMenue/413006374



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 16, 2020, 02:11:34 PM
2 new polls today (Ö24 + Puls 24):

39% / 39% ÖVP
17% / 17% Greens
16% / 17% SPÖ
13% / 15% FPÖ
10% /   9% NEOS
  5% /   3% Others

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Beben-Gruene-ueberholen-SPOe/413380380

https://twitter.com/puls24news/status/1217760974205325313


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 16, 2020, 02:21:27 PM
Turns out that Austria had a much bigger budget surplus last year than anticipated (thanks to good labour market data and income tax revenue):

https://www.diepresse.com/5751440/budgetuberschuss-woher-das-geld-kommt

According to preliminary numbers, the federal government budget had a surplus of 1.45 billion € (which is ca. 1 billion more than what ÖVP-FPÖ planned for 2019).

That is only the federal government, excluding the states, the communities and the healthcare providers. Those 4 branches together make up the Maastricht surplus/deficit - which makes it comparable to other EU countries. Those numbers will be out at the end of March. Considering those usually provide additional surpluses, it is likely that Austria had a Maastricht surplus worth ca. 3-4 billion € last year, or ca. 1% of GDP.

That will create more wiggle-room for the new ÖVP-Green government when it comes to creating the 2020/2021 budgets and their plans for tax cuts/reform, ecological measures etc.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 16, 2020, 02:52:39 PM
Burgenland, the smallest of the 9 states, will have state elections next Sunday.

An early voting day will be held tomorrow to "boost" turnout (but so far, early voting days have not shown to boost turnout at all).

This election will be really important for the SPÖ, because it could stop their downward trend. But that's only got to do with Governor Doskozil, who is more of an old-school Social Democrat (Bruno Kreisky-style), who knows how to attract ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters.

On the other hand, the FPÖ will do badly in this election and nobody knows if the LBL will once again make it into the state parliament. Polls are rare.

ÖVP and Greens should do well (in the Green case, 7-9% would be a record-result for Burgenland ... :P). NEOS will have a hard time passing 4%, but who knows ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 16, 2020, 03:54:17 PM
From the new Puls 24/Karmasin poll (name recognition rates of the new ÖVP+Green government members and trust in them):

()

Trust is higher the more they are known to voters ... as can be expected at this point.

Another thing that sticks out:

Alma Zadic is already known by 2/3 voters and gets surprisingly high trust ratings from the public, despite the online hate attacks and murder threats from the FPÖ (or maybe those attacks were even a reason to rally behind her).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2020, 12:36:12 PM
New Karmasin / Puls 24 poll for the Burgenland state election next Sunday:





Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2020, 12:47:15 PM
The LBL is a FPÖ splinter party, btw.

It is one of 5 parties that are only represented in state parliaments right now (the others are the KPÖ in Styria, the Team Carinthia, FRITZ in Tyrol and DAÖ in Vienna. DAÖ is the only one not elected by voters, but was established by rogue MPs).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2020, 12:12:02 AM
11% of eligible voters have voted early yesterday for the Burgenland state election next Sunday.

That’s up from 8.5% ahead of the 2015 election.

https://orf.at/stories/3151383


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2020, 12:59:45 PM
So, the Burgenland state election on Sunday will feature the heavily popular SPÖ Governor Doskozil ... who currently has virtually no voice after several throat/vocal chord surgeries.

Currently, there’s a live debate going on and I read in newspapers that he has no voice, but hearing it is just wow:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 23, 2020, 02:52:11 PM
Former FPÖ leader Strache was a „guest speaker“ tonight at the DAÖ (Alliance for Austria) New Years Meeting:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113667476/spannung-vor-strache-rede-bei-daoe-veranstaltung

About 1.000 people got tickets for the event in Vienna and Strache lashed out against Hofer and Kickl („previous so-called friends showed their true colours“).

Strache could become DAÖ frontrunner for the Vienna state election, but didn’t say so today. He said he has some „homework“ left to do in the next months ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 23, 2020, 02:55:14 PM
New poll:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 23, 2020, 03:00:12 PM
Former FPÖ leader Strache was a „guest speaker“ tonight at the DAÖ (Alliance for Austria) New Years Meeting:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113667476/spannung-vor-strache-rede-bei-daoe-veranstaltung

About 1.000 people got tickets for the event in Vienna and Strache lashed out against Hofer and Kickl („previous so-called friends showed their true colours“).

Strache could become DAÖ frontrunner for the Vienna state election, but didn’t say so today. He said he has some „homework“ left to do in the next months ...

Video of the Strache comeback with standing ovations:



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2020, 01:57:51 PM
Tomorrow, not only state elections will be held in Burgenland but also municipal elections in Lower Austria, the 2nd largest state.

But not all 573 municipalities will have one: 6 have different election dates, among them the capital city St. Pölten. Still, about 93% of voters in the state are eligible tomorrow. That’s about 1.5 million voters.

In the Burgenland state election for example, it’s only some 250.000 voters.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2020, 12:54:41 AM
Polls for the Burgenland state election + Lower Austrian municipal elections are now open.

In Burgenland, 19.5% of eligible voters have already voted early or requested postal ballots - up from 14.2% in 2015.

Polls close at 4pm.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2020, 09:58:17 AM
Burgenland polls close in 2 minutes.

A 1st ORF/SORA projection will be out soon.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2020, 10:02:51 AM
SPÖ wins the state election with 51% !

+9%

Absolute majority.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2020, 10:13:49 AM
()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on January 26, 2020, 10:46:44 AM
So Greens will not be needed in place of FPO. Neither FPO in place of FPO.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2020, 11:57:06 AM
So Greens will not be needed in place of FPO. Neither FPO in place of FPO.

Remains to be seen ...

A) the SPÖ has now dropped to 50%, and the others in parliament 47%. 3% for smaller parties. That should be enough for the SPÖ to keep their 19th seat in the 36-seat state parliament and the absolute majority. But there are still some votes counted in the north of the state.

B) the SPÖ could still bring in a coalition partner despite having an absolute majority. In Lower Austria, where the ÖVP has won an absolute majority as well - they picked the SPÖ as coalition partner for example.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2020, 12:18:14 PM
Only 4 towns left to count in the Burgenland state election.

The SPÖ is currently sitting at 50.02% statewide and among the 4 towns left the SPÖ underperformed relative to the state in 2015.

So I guess they will end up with 49.9% or something, but should retain their absolute majority because of the small parties that didn't make it.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2020, 02:29:08 PM
Final result for the Burgenland state election:

()
()

A very regional election result.

But still a very stunning result for the almost-voiceless SPÖ governor, in the current political climate which has turned sharply against the SPÖ.

As I have said before Dosko managed to gain from all parties because he’s a really popular and populist, pragmatic politician who easily connects with the working-class.

And in the Lower Austrian municipal elections, it seems the ÖVP cemented their strong position in the 567 towns which voted today.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2020, 02:37:36 PM
Final results of the Lower Austrian municipal elections today:

()

http://www.noe.gv.at/wahlen/G20201/Index.html?area=l


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: mileslunn on January 26, 2020, 05:56:13 PM
Final result for the Burgenland state election:

()
()

A very regional election result.

But still a very stunning result for the almost-voiceless SPÖ governor, in the current political climate which has turned sharply against the SPÖ.

As I have said before Dosko managed to gain from all parties because he’s a really popular and populist, pragmatic politician who easily connects with the working-class.

And in the Lower Austrian municipal elections, it seems the ÖVP cemented their strong position in the 567 towns which voted today.

Is the party tough on immigration as looking at Danish result and looking at how right wing populists are gaining more from traditional left than traditional centre-right, perhaps the new formula for left is hardline on immigration combined with left wing economic policies.  Off course might only work in areas with no metropolitan areas as those are different, but I see Greens being the future of your young urban woke types however Burgenland is pretty rural and lacks any large metro area.  Only real large cosmopolitan metro area in Austria is Vienna.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 27, 2020, 12:14:00 AM
;D

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 27, 2020, 12:54:35 PM
The SPÖ will govern alone in Burgenland now after their election win yesterday, dumping the FPÖ as their coalition partner.

https://www.krone.at/2086759


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 29, 2020, 12:33:06 AM
The FPÖ-Burgenland leader had stepped down after their election defeat on Sunday.

https://orf.at/stories/3152480

Meanwhile, the ÖVP-Green coalition will head to a 3-day work retreat at a hotel in Lower Austria to work out the 2020/2021 budgets, the first phase of the tax cuts/tax reform and the ecologicalisation of it.

Among the measures that the Greens want to pass into law soon:

A cheap public transport ticket: statewide for 365€/year and ca. 1.000€ Austria-wide
Significantly more expensive flight tickets for short range travels
A much higher tax on SUVs and other cars with high emmission output
Tax incentives for renewable cars
Toll fee increases for trucks with high emmission output

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113877131/wie-die-koalition-bei-ihrer-klausur-ergruenen-will


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 29, 2020, 01:09:46 PM
Meanwhile, the ÖVP-Green coalition will head to a 3-day work retreat at a hotel in Lower Austria to work out the 2020/2021 budgets, the first phase of the tax cuts/tax reform and the ecologicalisation of it.

Among the measures that the Greens want to pass into law soon:

A cheap public transport ticket: statewide for 365€/year and ca. 1.000€ Austria-wide
Significantly more expensive flight tickets for short range travels
A much higher tax on SUVs and other cars with high emmission output
Tax incentives for renewable cars
Toll fee increases for trucks with high emmission output

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113877131/wie-die-koalition-bei-ihrer-klausur-ergruenen-will

The whole ÖVP-Green cabinet took a joint bus ride to their hotel today, instead of using their expensive ministerial cars:

()

https://orf.at/stories/3152567/

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/klassenfahrt-feeling-im-koalitionsbus/400740588

Let’s see what they can get done ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on January 30, 2020, 04:27:07 PM
New Vienna state election poll for the fall:

()

Strong start for DAÖ.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2020, 06:17:22 PM
New Vienna state election poll for the fall:

()

Strong start for DAÖ.


If the numbers were theoretically here for a a ÖVP-Green-NEOS, do you think the parties would move towards forming such a government for the city, or would another SPÖ+ govt get formed? The advantages with such a govt would be alignment with the national coalition and they get to kick out the dominant SPÖ. The obvious disadvantage is that it would be a slim majority, and it would have three parties. It also would need to actually have a majority, which this poll doesn't say is there. Ever since the FPO split the attention on the right has shifted towards the two parties, pushing ÖVP-Green-NEOS away from the line they once were closer to.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: DL on January 30, 2020, 06:42:07 PM
I will guess that Green voters in Vienna are much more leftwing than in Austria as a whole that they would be aghast if their party backed a rightwing coalition with OVP and NEOS


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on January 31, 2020, 06:15:33 PM
()

Why new SPO leader is so unpopular? Are there any potential replacements for her?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2020, 01:18:04 AM
New Vienna state election poll for the fall:

()

Strong start for DAÖ.


If the numbers were theoretically here for a a ÖVP-Green-NEOS, do you think the parties would move towards forming such a government for the city, or would another SPÖ+ govt get formed? The advantages with such a govt would be alignment with the national coalition and they get to kick out the dominant SPÖ. The obvious disadvantage is that it would be a slim majority, and it would have three parties. It also would need to actually have a majority, which this poll doesn't say is there. Ever since the FPO split the attention on the right has shifted towards the two parties, pushing ÖVP-Green-NEOS away from the line they once were closer to.

They would try, but as you said the numbers are not there.

I expect the Ludwig-SPÖ to recover to around 40% by the fall state election, while ÖVP and Greens should drop a bit.

The SPÖ will then enter coalition talks with either Greens or the ÖVP.

The fragmentation of the Far-Right continues: I expect both the FPÖ and DAÖ to get around 8-10% in the election.

The situation is bizarre: while the FPÖ alone would probably have dropped to 10-14% - the presence of DAÖ and Strache create some kind of competition actually, which means their combined results will end up higher than with just the FPÖ (similarly to Salzburg in 2018 with FPÖ and FPS).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2020, 01:19:46 AM
I will guess that Green voters in Vienna are much more leftwing than in Austria as a whole that they would be aghast if their party backed a rightwing coalition with OVP and NEOS

I think they would indeed be more inclined to govern with the SPÖ again, but the numbers for VP-Greens-NEOS are not going to be there anyway ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2020, 01:24:06 AM
Why new SPO leader is so unpopular? Are there any potential replacements for her?

She kinda has an Elizabeth Warren problem: she’s smart and highly educated, no dispute. She always mentions her working-class upbringing, but fails extremely to connect with that working-class. In other words: she’s not taken seriously and is not seen as a leadership personality, more like the doctor that she always was. Besides that, there were heavy intrigues going on within the SPÖ and fellow party people always lectured her about something.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 01, 2020, 03:18:16 AM
2 new polls today (both with Strache's DAÖ):

Ö24/Research Affairs

39% ÖVP
17% Greens
17% SPÖ
11% FPÖ
10% NEOS
  5% DAÖ
  1% Others

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-FPOe-bald-nur-noch-einstellig/415511780

ATV Trend/Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies

40% ÖVP
18% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
14% Greens
  9% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

With Doskozil instead of Rendi-Wagner as SPÖ-leader:

38% ÖVP
21% SPÖ
15% Greens
14% FPÖ
  8% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

https://www.heute.at/s/-kanzler-doskozil-ist-beliebter-als-rendi-wagner-40690362


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 08, 2020, 01:04:33 PM
The NYT has a lengthy article about Alma Zadic:

A Onetime ‘Refugee Child’ Takes On Austria’s Far Right

Quote
Alma Zadic arrived in Vienna from Bosnia when she was 10. Now, she is the justice minister in an awkward coalition of liberal Greens and hard-line, anti-immigrant conservatives.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/europe/austria-greens-alma-zadic.html

Otherwise, not a lot happening right now. ÖVP-Greens are working on their tax reform/cut plans and ecologicalisation of it and "greener" infrastructure and public transport + on the new budgets for 2020/2021 (with a surplus despite all of it !), and which will be presented in March and passed in parliament some time before summer.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2020, 12:37:47 AM
Polls remain quite stable with the ÖVP around 39-40% and the Greens at 17%.

The SPÖ is around 17-18%, the FPÖ at 11-15% and NEOS around 9-10%.

Former FPÖ-leader Strache broke his knee at a skiing trip in East Tyrol recently and needed surgery, after trying to jump 20 meters on a halfpipe (like young kids do).

He then posted on Facebook that a 50-year guy like him should stop pretending to be a teenager ... :P

In other news, the Defense Minister Claudia Tanner is taking on Airbus, the company which provided us the costly Eurofighter jets - that were purchased with massive corruption under the Schüssel government.

Airbus has recently agreed to a 4 Bio. € court settlement fine in the US. During the trials there it emerged that Airbus has received some 55 Mio. € in corruption money from the Schüssel government for the purchase.

Tanner says she wants to get out of the Eurofighter contract with Airbus if they don’t compensate Austria for the overpriced fighter jets and corruption money.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2020, 12:45:49 AM
So, the Airbus/Eurofighter jet corruption scandal from 15-20 years ago is in the media again (which helped the SPÖ win elections back then as an opposition party !).

What is the SPÖ doing now ?

* Party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has nothing better to do than announcing a leadership confirmation vote among party members in March/April !

* Hans-Peter Doskozil (Gov. of Burgenland and just re-elected with an absolute majority in the state election, see above) has announced that his soon-to-be-wife Julia will become an aide in his cabinet !

Both decisions are being attacked by the media and really ... WTF ?

The SPÖ could position themselves as an anti-corruption party, but choose once again to be preoccupied with themselves instead ... ::)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 15, 2020, 05:45:26 AM
Monthly "Profil" magazine poll has the SPÖ falling to a record-low and 4th place:

38% ÖVP
17% Greens
16% FPÖ
15% SPÖ
10% NEOS
  4% Others

Quote
Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: 804 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 10. bis 14. Februar 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-mehrheit-maechtige-justiz-11347712


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on February 16, 2020, 10:44:19 AM
Monthly "Profil" magazine poll has the SPÖ falling to a record-low and 4th place:

38% ÖVP
17% Greens
16% FPÖ
15% SPÖ
10% NEOS
  4% Others

Quote
Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: 804 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 10. bis 14. Februar 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-mehrheit-maechtige-justiz-11347712
How surprising...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2020, 02:28:40 PM
The Vienna state election will be held on 4 October, the last possible date (according to a SPÖ-Green city government decision).

The previous one was on 10 October 2015.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wien-Wahl-findet-am-4-Oktober-statt/417961407


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: TheSaint250 on February 19, 2020, 07:15:48 PM
Has Strache officially associated himself with DAÖ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2020, 12:30:27 AM
Has Strache officially associated himself with DAÖ?

Not officially yet, but might in the coming months (he held one speech so far at a DAÖ event, but didn't say there yet if he'll run for them).

He's currently recovering from a ski accident and is also under constant prosecution watch for his Ibiza-video comments. He might be charged any moment and would have to appear in court before/after the Vienna election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2020, 11:11:54 AM
Has Strache officially associated himself with DAÖ?

Not officially yet, but might in the coming months (he held one speech so far at a DAÖ event, but didn't say there yet if he'll run for them).

He's currently recovering from a ski accident and is also under constant prosecution watch for his Ibiza-video comments. He might be charged any moment and would have to appear in court before/after the Vienna election.

Strache kinda hinted at running for DAÖ again today:

https://www.nachrichten.at/politik/innenpolitik/strache-deutet-antritt-bei-wien-wahl-mit-daoe-an;art385,3229608

Some newspapers like "Kurier" and "Ö24" even called it official, but that's not what Strache said.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 22, 2020, 01:38:04 AM
Chancellor Kurz performing at the Eurovision Song Contest:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 23, 2020, 12:13:44 PM
Politics is so boring here right now ...

The most newsworthy thing today is that FinMin Blümel announced once again a freeze on government document fees such as passports, driving licenses etc.

Those fees have now not been hiked for 9 years in a row, because „government should not burden citizens more and more each year“.

(A passport still costs 76€ here.)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2020, 12:17:05 PM
FPÖ-Linz out with a racist social media posting:



"Healthcare: Dental refurbishment for criminals !"

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/offener-rassismus-eines-linzer-fpoe-stadtrats/400763253

The FPÖ-guy blames the new Green Health Minister for his plans to switch prison healthcare services from the Justice Ministry to the ÖGK (Austrian single-payer Healthcare Service).

Problem: even the FPÖ supported such a change when they were in government, because it would be cheaper.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 24, 2020, 12:34:23 PM
So, the Airbus/Eurofighter jet corruption scandal from 15-20 years ago is in the media again (which helped the SPÖ win elections back then as an opposition party !).

What is the SPÖ doing now ?

* Party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has nothing better to do than announcing a leadership confirmation vote among party members in March/April !

The SPÖ could position themselves as an anti-corruption party, but choose once again to be preoccupied with themselves instead ... ::)

About 180.000 SPÖ party members will be eligible to vote on her.

Today, the SJ (Socialist Youth, and ca. 10.000 of those 180.000 members), announced that they will vote AGAINST Rend-Wagner in the membership vote.

That's not totally uncommon, because the SJ historically always was the most critical and most anti-establishment.

But not a good start for Rendi-Wagner ... (some SPÖ-mayors from bigger cities have also openly said that the SPÖ needs a complete re-start).

Rendi-Wagner has said that she has a "personal support level", but would not announce how high it is. For example, if 60% support her as party leader and her personal level was 65% ... she could still step down.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 27, 2020, 12:06:06 AM
H.C. Strache (ex-FPÖ leader) officially running for the October Vienna state election:

https://orf.at/stories/3155787

(Maybe DAÖ will change to „List Strache“ in the coming months to get more appeal.)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 27, 2020, 01:35:02 PM
Austria 2019 population & demographic changes released:

Quote
Population reaches 8.9 million at the beginning of 2020

Vienna, 2020-02-27 – According to preliminary results of Statistics Austria, 8 902 600 people were living in Austria on 1 January 2020. During 2019, the resident population increased by 43 825 (+0.5%). Hence, population growth was slightly higher than in the previous year (2018: 36 508; +0.4%).

At the beginning of 2020, some 1.49 million foreign citizens were living in Austria, representing a share of 16.7% of the total population (compared to 16.2% on 1 January 2019). Germans (200 059 persons; +4.0%) were still the largest group of foreigners living in Austria; for the first time, Romanian nationals (123 461; +9.6%) followed in the second place.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/122589.html

Quote
Births and deaths in 2019: 1 918 more newborns than deaths

Vienna, 2020-02-27 – In 2019, the number of live births amounted to 84 221, while 82 303 people died, as Statistics Austria reports on the basis of provisional figures. This resulted in a natural population increase of +1 918 and corresponded to ten births and nine deaths per 1 000 inhabitants. Compared to 2018, the number of births decreased by 1.5% and the number of deaths declined by 2.0%.

Since 2015, data also include births and deaths occurring abroad of people with a main residence in Austria. These accounted for 465 births (0.6%) and 637 deaths (0.8%) in 2019.

In 2019, 234 children died under one year of age. This translated into a provisional infant mortality rate of 2.8‰.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/122659.html

Quote
44 997 marriages in 2019, 990 of them by same-sex couples

Vienna, 2020-02-27 – In 2019, 44 997 marriages and 1 257 registrations of partnerships took place in Austria, according to provisional figures released by Statistics Austria.

Starting from 1 January 2019, the institution of marriage was opened to same-sex couples, while at the same time heterosexual couples were allowed to form registered partnerships in Austria. As a consequence, the number of registered partnerships increased significantly (+170.9% compared to 2018, when 464 cases were registered). Among the partnerships registered in 2019, a vast majority of 1 124 were mixed-sex couples, while only 133 were same-sex couples.

On the other hand, 990 same-sex couples made use of the new legal framework to enter into marriage. The total number of marriages (44 997) also includes 191 couples who transferred their registered partnership into marriage. Yet, there has been no case so far where a marriage was changed into a registered partnership. Overall, the number of marriages decreased by 3.2% compared to 2018.

According to provisional figures of Statistics Austria, 16 245 divorces took place in Austria in 2019, a decrease of 0.4% compared to 2018. At the same time, 122 registered same-sex partnerships were dissolved by court decision, an increase of 24.5% compared to the previous year.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/122661.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 27, 2020, 01:50:30 PM
My state (Salzburg) had faster population growth last year (+0.6%) than Austria.

It also had an increase of births (the opposite of Austria) by 2.2% - the only state that had an increase.

Vienna had the biggest numerical birth surplus, Vorarlberg the highest in relative terms.

Some Vienna districts had more than 3% population growth.

Romanians were the fastest growing foreign group, followed by Germans, Hungarians, Croats and Bulgarians.

The number of Austrian citizens dropped by 4.000 (despite 11.000 naturalizations), while the number of foreigners increased by 48.000


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2020, 08:43:56 AM
New Ö24 national poll (with DAÖ included):

()

According to this poll, Strache would re-enter parliament with 5% (4% threshold).

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Strache-wuerde-es-ins-Parlament-schaffen/419214257


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2020, 01:00:57 PM
GDP growth numbers for 2019 were released today.

Austrian GDP went up by 1.6% last year, much higher than neighbouring Germany or Italy.

But in Q4, growth slowed down to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, or +1.0% compared with Q4 2018.

The next important release will come in one month (budget surplus and debt data for 2019).

My guess, based on the numbers so far:

Budget surplus: +0.9% of GDP to +1.3% of GDP (ca. 3.8-5.0 billion €)

That would be the 2nd budget surplus in a row.

Debt as a percentage of GDP: 69% (2018: 74%)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 29, 2020, 07:44:25 AM

nice


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: rob in cal on February 29, 2020, 03:56:24 PM
  So what would the ideology of DAO be compared to FPO?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 01, 2020, 02:01:41 AM
  So what would the ideology of DAO be compared to FPO?

The same.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 01, 2020, 02:50:31 PM
New Vienna poll (OGM for the Krone):

()

https://www.krone.at/2107831


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2020, 12:26:05 AM
Another Vienna poll (Ö24), another good Strache result:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on March 02, 2020, 09:31:16 AM
That's one hell of an FPO drop from the previous election......


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2020, 12:18:13 PM
That's one hell of an FPO drop from the previous election......

Vienna voted at the height of the immigrant invasion in late 2015, which explains the strong result then. This and SPÖVP being a total trainwreck then and Strache at his best.

Interestingly, there could be a similar situation again later this year if Erdogan keeps the floodgates open and lets the millions of refugees and other economic „refugees“ into Greece.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 03, 2020, 11:45:32 AM
Heard in the Conserva-Green coalition meeting today:

Green-leader Kogler: "It would be good if Austria were to take in some refugee women and children at the Greek/Turkish border."

ÖVP: "Shut the f**k up. We will not take in a single "refugee" or refugee, as written down in our coalition contract !"

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/hilfe-fuer-fluechtlinge-kogler-blitzt-bei-oevp-ab/400770270

In the end, there was a compromise that the border patrols will now be increased and 3 million € donated to Idlib aid.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Omega21 on March 03, 2020, 12:32:30 PM
Heard in the Conserva-Green coalition meeting today:

Green-leader Kogler: "It would be good if Austria were to take in some refugee women and children at the Greek/Turkish border."

ÖVP: "Shut the f**k up. We will not take in a single "refugee" or refugee, as written down in our coalition contract !"

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/hilfe-fuer-fluechtlinge-kogler-blitzt-bei-oevp-ab/400770270

In the end, there was a compromise that the border patrols will now be increased and 3 million € donated to Idlib aid.

Sad to see those Greens never learned a thing.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2020, 11:29:21 AM
Heard in the Conserva-Green coalition meeting today:

Green-leader Kogler: "It would be good if Austria were to take in some refugee women and children at the Greek/Turkish border."

ÖVP: "Shut the f**k up. We will not take in a single "refugee" or refugee, as written down in our coalition contract !"

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/hilfe-fuer-fluechtlinge-kogler-blitzt-bei-oevp-ab/400770270

In the end, there was a compromise that the border patrols will now be increased and 3 million € donated to Idlib aid.

Sad to see those Greens never learned a thing.

President Van der Bellen (Greens) and Justice Minister Alma Zadic (Greens) now also say:

"Let some women and children in."

I wouldn't mind a small contingent of say 500 or 1000 of such women and kids.

But then there's the pull-factor again and once the women and children are here, it won't take long until the men are coming as well ... and we don't know who they are. They could be economic "refugees" with a troubling, military past.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2020, 08:43:49 AM
New Vienna state election poll (Unique Research for „Heute“ newspaper):

36% SPÖ (-3.6% compared with 2015)
22% ÖVP (+12.8%)
19% Greens (+7.2%)
10% FPÖ (-20.8%)
  6% NEOS (-0.2%)
  5% DAÖ (+5.0%)
  2% Others (-0.4%)

Feb. 27 - March 5, n=800

PDF link (https://legacy.heute.at/asset/original/b/9/8/b988a47308642965717fbdc0fd3d172f.pdf)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2020, 05:04:41 AM
The budget for 2020 will be presented in about 2 weeks by Finance Minister Blümel.

It will apparently include first steps and more infrastructure investments toward an increased ecologicalisation of the Austrian economy and (public) transport system.

Also, the chronically underfunded Justice Ministry (courts, prisons etc.) will get additional funding.

Yet the also chronically underfunded Defense Ministry won't get more funding. Despite the budget apparently having a 1.6 billion € surplus this year.

I think this is kind of a disturbing trend, because the Military and proper equipment is needed more and more to deal with natural disasters.

So what is the ÖVP doing (with the aide of the Greens) ?

They invented the so-called "semi-fit for draft"-policy. Currently, all 17-year old boys in Austria are drafted, but because more and more are getting fatter, psychologically impaired or have other problems, more than 20% cannot serve.

The government now has decided that even fat draftees will be used for service, in kitchens, as drivers, for paperwork or for natural disasters.

This will already be passed into law the coming weeks/months and become law by 1.1.2021 - which would mean that only those with a really serious mental or physical problems won't serve.

The 2020 budget will also be passed into law after March and they are also working on the 2021 budget right now, which will become law in the fall.

https://www.tt.com/artikel/30721540/viele-junge-maenner-untauglich-regierung-plant-teiltauglichkeit


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2020, 06:43:58 AM
New "Profil" magazine poll:

2 in 3 Austrians oppose taking in refugees or so-called "refugees" from the Greek/Turk border.

61% say Austria/other EU countries should NOT let in additional refugees/"refugees"
31% say Austria/other EU countries should let in additional refugees/"refugees"

94% of FPÖ-voters, 75% of ÖVP-voters and 52% of SPÖ-voters are opposed.
83% of Green-voters and 54% of NEOS-voters support it.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200307_OTS0017/profil-umfrage-fast-zwei-drittel-gegen-aufnahme-von-fluechtlingen


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 12, 2020, 11:41:24 AM
The Vorarlberg (Sunday) and Styria (March 22) municipal elections have been called off.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 12, 2020, 11:48:38 PM
Not much movement in the new Ö24 poll:

ÖVP-Green government approval: ca. 60%

ÖVP-Green government approval on Coronavirus: ca. 80%

Austrians also support all measures to reign in the spread, such as school closures.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2020, 07:06:47 AM
A budget surplus was planned for this year too, but now the Black-Green government announced at least a 4 billion € package (= 1% of GDP) to help the companies.

The tourism and hospitality branches of the economy are hardest hit and it will get much worse of course.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Omega21 on March 14, 2020, 12:15:30 PM
A budget surplus was planned for this year too, but now the Black-Green government announced at least a 4 billion € package (= 1% of GDP) to help the companies.

The tourism and hospitality branches of the economy are hardest hit and it will get much worse of course.

Some hotels in Vienna have started laying off workers and sending them to AMS. A few are currently closing. I have some younger friends who work in the industry.

The cancellation rate is mind-blowingly high since all of Vienna's cultural destinations are closed, including even the St. Stephens Cathedral. Plus, no cafes and restaurants after 3 PM.

So yeah, while some people might even keep their booking where you're from, here it's totally different since they came for the things that were outright shut down.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2020, 01:24:49 AM
The Austrian parliament will pass a series of emergency laws today, such as the initial 4 billion € fund to help the businesses and the soon recessionist economy in general. Currently, a lot of small businesses and the tourism/hotel industry are laying off workers in droves, while bigger companies are also experiencing difficulty (shorter work hours etc.)

But also such laws as quarantines for certain communities, shutdowns of cafés, etc. etc.

For this meeting, members of parliament will not meet in a single room - but they will be distributed across the whole Hofburg in various different rooms to allow for more space between each MP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2020, 03:25:38 AM
Austrian parliament session has started.

Kurz currently speaking and his declaration sounds like a proposal to introduce martial law.

On the other hand he’s a good speaker/explainer and the government is handling this extremely well.

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Nationalratssondersitzung-zum-Coronavirus/14056860


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2020, 03:30:54 AM
Vice-Chancellor Kogler (Greens) speaking.

He starts with thanking the doctors, nurses, care people, teachers and especially the cashiers in the supermarkets - who he calls the heroes of this medical crisis.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2020, 03:39:04 AM
Kogler:

„Parts of Italy are looking like a war zone. Old people are saying goodbye to their relatives over the phone. We must do everything possible to avoid this in Austria.“


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2020, 03:43:08 AM
Thank goodness this is one such crisis where the FPÖ also behaves statesmen-like and doesn’t resort to silly conspiracy theories ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on March 15, 2020, 05:32:16 AM
Thank goodness this is one such crisis where the FPÖ also behaves statesmen-like and doesn’t resort to silly conspiracy theories ...

I suspect they are saving those for later.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2020, 07:03:18 AM
The Corona emergency laws have just unanimously passed the Nationalrat and will now be discussed and passed by the Bundesrat and then signed by the President in the evening.

Those are the most restrictive laws on personal freedom since WW2.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2020, 07:13:04 AM
New „Market“ poll today:

40% ÖVP
20% SPÖ
17% Greens
13% FPÖ
  9% NEOS
  1% Others

By a 78-17 margin, Austrians are willing to give up most of their personal freedoms to reign in the spread of the virus.

73% of Austrians support the current measures by the parliament. The age group 30-39 is the most critical (58% support), while the age group 60+ is the most supportive (87%).

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000115709451/73-prozent-halten-massnahmen-gegen-coronavirus-fuer-gerechtfertigt


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 22, 2020, 04:35:07 AM
Political topics are virtually not existing or debated at the moment, but the public is giving the ÖVP-Green government up to 90% approval ratings for handling the situation.

Even labour unionists have been applauding conservative Chancellor Kurz recently for his swift actions on aide for business owners and workers, so that they will get enough state money to survive instead of going bankrupt and so that they don't immediately have to fire their employees but rather send them into "Short-Work" or home office work instead, where they keep most of their salary.

Kurz, who recently saw a budget deficit as the "devil", is now open to massive deficits to save the lives of old people and protect companies and workers.

His comments are similar to those from the famous Socialist Chancellor in the 1970s, Bruno Kreisky, who once said: "Why should I care about rising debt ? I'm willing to have higher debt any day, than a single additional unemployed worker."

There has also been some talk that the October Vienna state election could be delayed if the situation is ongoing, but it's too early to talk about that.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 27, 2020, 12:55:03 AM
New Ö24 poll (March 23-25):

()

ÖVP-Green government approval rating: 77%

The anti-Corona measures introduced by the government are:

82% needed and about right
14% not tough enough
  4% too tough

While only 37% of Austrians personally fear an infection, 65% are worried that a loved one could be infected and 59% fear a loved one could die.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Corona-Krise-OeVP-erstmals-bei-40-Prozent/423655043

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/65-Prozent-haben-Angst-um-ihre-Liebsten/423650890


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 27, 2020, 03:37:08 AM
Currently, all Austrian politicians have pretty good approval ratings (according to a new "Heute" poll), with Chancellor Kurz (ÖVP) having the best (77-10 approve), followed by Health Minister Anschober (Greens), President Van der Bellen (Greens) and Vice-Chancellor Kogler (also Greens):

()

Even SPÖ-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner, who used to be in deep negatives, is now back to balanced approvals.

Only Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) remains in deep sh*t, together with Kickl and Strache of course.

Quote
Zur Umfrage

Auftraggeber: "Heute"
Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österreichische Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Stichprobengröße: 500 Befragte
Maximale Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: +/- 4,4%
Feldarbeit: 23. bis 27. März 2020

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-politiker-ranking-wie-kurz-anschober-und-co-von-der-krise-profitieren-42804183


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on March 27, 2020, 09:22:22 AM
A 3rd new poll (Market) also confirms that the ÖVP-Green government gets sky-high approvals, as do most politicians and institutions.

Chancellor Kurz for example gets a 84-7 approval rating, the government a 81-6 rating.

()

()

Austrians are also confident that they'll manage to get past the Coronavirus situation in a positive way. Old people are much more optimistic than young people.

https://www.market.at/market-aktuell/details/oesterreicherinnen-gehen-optimistisch-mit-corona-um.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2020, 04:50:59 AM
New Market poll for the "Standard":

43% ÖVP (+5.5 compared with the 2019 election)
19% Greens (+5.1)
19% SPÖ (-2.2)
11% FPÖ (-5.2)
  7% NEOS (-1.1)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) job approval rating: 81%

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000116462666/oevp-und-gruene-legen-bei-der-sonntagsfrage-deutlich-zu


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 03, 2020, 07:48:07 AM
How low can the FPO go, I wonder......


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2020, 08:05:26 AM
How low can the FPÖ go, I wonder......

Hopefully single digits.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 03, 2020, 08:08:40 AM

What is their recent low, out of interest? 11% must be close to it at least.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2020, 08:47:36 AM

What is their recent low, out of interest? 11% must be close to it at least.

The last time they got 11% was before the 2006 election, but you also had the BZÖ then.

Before that, they polled 5% in 2005 after the infamous Knittelfeld Putsch - when Strache took over.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2020, 01:31:27 AM
ÖVP+Greens hitting new record-highs in the OGM/Kurier poll today:

()

Chancellor vote:

()

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/in-der-corona-krise-oevp-auf-45-prozent-spoe-hinter-gruenen/400802834

Best ÖVP result since ~1970.

Best Green result ever.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 04, 2020, 08:11:57 AM
And the SPO's lowest since......?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2020, 12:59:48 PM

It’s existence.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 09, 2020, 11:17:39 AM
The Vienna election in Mid-October needs roughly 3 months of planning.

So, the election calendar needs to be set in early July.

Coronavirus needs to be gone here by then, otherwise they will delay the election.

Tricky for the SPÖ-Green city government:

ÖVP and Greens are polling higher than ever before, so the Greens would be advised to vote in October at the regular date. On the other hand, they are in the federal government as well and have a duty to protect the population.

The SPÖ is in the dumpster and wants to vote as late as possible (even though the Vienna-SPÖ is far better positioned than the federal SPÖ).

Still, based on current polling, a majority against the SPÖ would be possible for the 1st time ever. That means Red Vienna would be gone. This would be the Super-GAU (= maximum credible accident) for the SPÖ.

I could see the ÖVP at 25-30% there right now and the Greens at 20%+, with NEOS providing the additional support to oust the SPÖ.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 13, 2020, 12:56:23 PM
New „Market“ poll for the „Standard“ at the 100-day anniversary of ÖVP-Greens:

44% ÖVP (+6.5)
19% Greens (+5)
19% SPÖ (-2)
11% FPÖ (-5)
  6% NEOS (-2)
  1% Others

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and the government have record-high approval ratings.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000116755429/nach-100-tagen-ist-die-tuerkis-gruene-regierung-im-umfragehoch


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2020, 06:27:36 AM
The Vienna election in Mid-October needs roughly 3 months of planning.

Vienna Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) today:

"We will vote on October 11."

Extraordinary events (such as a 2nd wave of infections) could still prevent it, but right now all signs are on "Go".

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3044123


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2020, 03:26:32 AM
ÖVP nearing absolute majority-territory:

ATV Trend/Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies (7.-14. April, n=807)

46% ÖVP (+8.5)
17% SPÖ (-4.2)
16% Greens (+2.1)
10% FPÖ (-6.2)
  7% NEOS (-1.1)
  3% DAÖ (+3.0)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

62% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP-incumbent)
12% Werner Kogler (Greens)
11% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  5% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
  2% Heinz-Christian Strache (DAÖ)
  1% Others

ÖVP-Green government approval rating:

76% approve
21% disapprove
  3% undecided

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200415_OTS0127/atv-oesterreich-trend-acht-von-zehn-oesterreicherinnen-sind-mit-der-demokratie-zufrieden

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200416_OTS0046/atv-oesterreich-trend-glaubwuerdigkeit-von-gruenen-dank-corona-gestiegen


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 16, 2020, 03:52:58 AM
Why are the Greens rising so much in German-speaking countries?

I get why they are rising in Germany, with the SPD being officially useless and Linke being probably a step too far for most voters, but why are they rising in Austria?

Is it some sort of rally with the flag event or what?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2020, 05:21:44 AM
Why are the Greens rising so much in German-speaking countries?

I get why they are rising in Germany, with the SPD being officially useless and Linke being probably a step too far for most voters, but why are they rising in Austria?

Is it some sort of rally with the flag event or what?

Different dynamics in each country:

* In Germany, they were rising because of anti-government sentiment (Union/SPD grand coalition fatigue among the population and besides that, Union/SPD had a very lackluster government performance as well and some scandals. Also: climate strikes helped them, but the party now seems to have peaked.)

* In Austria, they are rising because the SPÖ behaved like a total joke over the past few years and the climate strikes and GP-leader Kogler's calm and folksy revivial of the party earned them a lot of respect. Now, in government, they are benefitting from a rally-around-the-flag effect (the Green Health Minister is doing a great job and has similar personal approval ratings as Chancellor Kurz). Also: List Pilz disappeared last year.

* In Switzerland, they were rising because of the climate strikes and maybe other factors that I'm not aware of (I don't follow Swiss politics, because it's boring as hell.)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2020, 05:31:06 AM
Why are the Greens rising so much in German-speaking countries?

I get why they are rising in Germany, with the SPD being officially useless and Linke being probably a step too far for most voters, but why are they rising in Austria?

Is it some sort of rally with the flag event or what?

On top of the reasons I already mentioned, Green Party support in many European countries is rising because Social Democratic parties get squeezed like an orange from 2 sides:

* Younger, educated people don't see SD parties as "hipster" enough, but view the Greens as such. Young people associate SD as "outdated" and are not aware anymore of the success that SD brought forward for their parents and grandparents (40-hour workweek, paid sick leave, minimum wages etc.)

* Blue-collar workers abandon the party for Far-Right parties, because they think that SD parties (rightly so) have become too immigration-fiendly.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: parochial boy on April 16, 2020, 07:07:31 AM
The Swiss Greens did significantly better in French Switzerland (~19%) than in German Switzerland (~11%). They're doing well for a combination of demographic reasons (younger, multicultural, more urban, highly educated and increasingly culturally liberal population) as well as issue salience (climate strikes, repeat heatwaves, melting glaciers and the fact it doesn't snow in winter any more is a little bit hard to ignore). The majority of their new support in 2019 came from previous non-voters rather than from the Socialists.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 18, 2020, 02:51:51 AM
:o

Profil/Unique Research (13.-16. April, n=806):

48% ÖVP (+10.5)
16% Greens (+2.1)
16% SPÖ (-5.2)
13% FPÖ (-3.2)
  6% NEOS (-2.1)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

55% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP-incumbent)
  8% Werner Kogler (Greens)
  8% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  3% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
19% Others/None/Undecided

Quote
Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: n = 806 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 13. bis 16. April 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-corona-11452832


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 18, 2020, 07:26:57 AM
When was the last time OVP polled at 50%, not for decades I would have thought?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 18, 2020, 07:36:48 AM
When was the last time OVP polled at 50%, not for decades I would have thought?

The Austrian ÖVP has never polled 50% or got 50% in an election.

In fact, this 48% today is the 3rd-best showing for the party since the end of WW2:

* 1945 election right after the War ended: 49.8%
* 1966 election: 48.4%
* 2020 poll: 48%


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 18, 2020, 12:14:27 PM
Surprised they never polled 50% in the post war era when 2 party politics was more of a thing.

(to contrast, in the UK both Tories and Labour quite often polled in the 50s come that period)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 18, 2020, 12:21:20 PM
Surprised they never polled 50% in the post war era when 2 party politics was more of a thing.

(to contrast, in the UK both Tories and Labour quite often polled in the 50s come that period)

ÖVP and SPÖ were always equally strong after 1945 (more or less) and the KPÖ and FPÖ got 5% each to prevent any party from hitting 50%.

That only changed with the popular Socialist „media Chancellor“ Bruno Kreisky in the 70s (who  Kurz is trying to copy these days with an adapted (Social) media campaign and „message control“).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 19, 2020, 02:25:09 AM
:o

Profil/Unique Research (13.-16. April, n=806):

48% ÖVP (+10.5)
16% Greens (+2.1)
16% SPÖ (-5.2)
13% FPÖ (-3.2)
  6% NEOS (-2.1)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

55% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP-incumbent)
  8% Werner Kogler (Greens)
  8% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  3% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
19% Others/None/Undecided

Quote
Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: n = 806 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 13. bis 16. April 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-corona-11452832

Chancellor Kurz also gets a 82-13 approval rating.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 19, 2020, 03:53:08 AM
New VIENNA poll for the state election in October.

OGM for the "Kronen Zeitung":

37% SPÖ (-3 compared with 2015)
24% ÖVP (+15)
17% Greens (+5)
  8% FPÖ (-23)
  7% NEOS (+1)
  5% DAÖ (+5)
  2% Others (n.c.)

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/wien-sonntagsfrage-24-prozent-fuer-oevp-5-prozent-fuer-strache/202206

54-44 majority for the current SPÖ-Green city government.

61-37 majority for SPÖVP.

ÖVP-Greens-NEOS majority would depend on the performace of Strache and DAÖ:

There's a 5% threshold in Vienna elections.

If they are in, there's no majority for ÖVP-Greens-NEOS (48-50).

If they are out, there's a 48-45 majority for ÖVP-Greens-NEOS.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 19, 2020, 08:56:55 AM
Yes, support for the ruling coalition there is actually up slightly.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 20, 2020, 08:18:58 AM
Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 21, 2020, 07:14:09 AM
Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Astatine on April 21, 2020, 12:33:33 PM
Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

To be exactly precise, Austria is a net importer of Czech energy (~11 TWh import vs. 0.1 TWh export), where coal and nuclear energy make up the largest parts of their power mix. So while there are neither coal nor nuclear power plants running, Austria's energy mix is still not free of coal and nuclear power. (excluding imports from Germany due to the planned phase-out)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 21, 2020, 01:03:25 PM
Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

To be exactly precise, Austria is a net importer of Czech energy (~11 TWh import vs. 0.1 TWh export), where coal and nuclear energy make up the largest parts of their power mix. So while there are neither coal nor nuclear power plants running, Austria's energy mix is still not free of coal and nuclear power. (excluding imports from Germany due to the planned phase-out)

I know of the imports.

(My electricity provider from Salzburg has a 100% renewable energy mix though.)

Besides, I’m not totally sure to what extent EU member countries can get rid of nuclear/coal imports from other countries considering it’s a EU-wide power grid ... it’s probably technically impossible to filter incoming Czech electricity to Austria and remove the coal/nuclear parts from it ... even if we wanted it. We’d probably have to stop all Czech electricity imports then. Or any other imports from countries that still have a coal/nuclear component.

It’s still good though that there’s now no domestic production anymore of nuclear and coal.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2020, 11:20:02 AM
Updated economic forecasts for 2020:

GDP: -4%
Deficit: -7% of GDP (2019: 1% surplus)
Debt: 80% of GDP (2019: 69%)
Unemployment: impossible to say, depends how many will get rehired


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 23, 2020, 07:36:38 AM
Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

How on Earth is having no nuclear energy a welcome development? If only the rest of Europe was like France (where nuclear is the main way to produce electricity) maybe we could actually reduce CO2 emissions and what not.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 23, 2020, 09:24:40 AM
Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

How on Earth is having no nuclear energy a welcome development? If only the rest of Europe was like France (where nuclear is the main way to produce electricity) maybe we could actually reduce CO2 emissions and what not.

Austrians and Germans have weird fetish of hating nuclear energy for no good reason. And they are bullying other countries to close their nuclear plants like Pacs in Hungary or Temelin in Czech Republic. I am not some weird nuclear energy fanboy and I see some issues with that source of energy (cost of building, know-how needed from countries like France, where EDF/Areva have problems with realisation of their current projects etc.) but German-speaking countries are simply nuts with their anti-nuclear prejudices.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 23, 2020, 09:30:34 AM
Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

How on Earth is having no nuclear energy a welcome development? If only the rest of Europe was like France (where nuclear is the main way to produce electricity) maybe we could actually reduce CO2 emissions and what not.

Austrians and Germans have weird fetish of hating nuclear energy for no good reason. And they are bullying other countries to close their nuclear plants like Pacs in Hungary or Temelin in Czech Republic. I am not some weird nuclear energy fanboy and I see some issues with that source of energy (cost of building, know-how needed from countries like France, where EDF/Areva have problems with realisation of their current projects etc.) but German-speaking countries are simply nuts with their anti-nuclear prejudices.

Of course in Germany the rise of the Greens is very much bound up with anti-nuclear sentiment ("peaceful" power as well as the weapons)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Astatine on April 23, 2020, 10:15:30 AM
Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

How on Earth is having no nuclear energy a welcome development? If only the rest of Europe was like France (where nuclear is the main way to produce electricity) maybe we could actually reduce CO2 emissions and what not.

Austrians and Germans have weird fetish of hating nuclear energy for no good reason. And they are bullying other countries to close their nuclear plants like Pacs in Hungary or Temelin in Czech Republic. I am not some weird nuclear energy fanboy and I see some issues with that source of energy (cost of building, know-how needed from countries like France, where EDF/Areva have problems with realisation of their current projects etc.) but German-speaking countries are simply nuts with their anti-nuclear prejudices.

As a German, I fully agree. Why on Earth would any sane government shutdown nuclear before coal, especially some of the safest nuclear power plants in the world, only to be dependent on nuclear energy from France and Czechia (against which is protested then) because locals protest against extending the power grid for renewables?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2020, 10:56:10 AM
As a Green Party voter I of course vigorously oppose nuclear energy.

Nuclear energy is highly dangerous (see contamination in Central Europe through winds from Ukraine). The soil is still poisoned here and children born with hydrocephalus or short arms.

I prefer renewable energy such as water, wind, solar and biomass.

Nuclear energy wouldn’t be needed if there were no overpopulation like we currently have everywhere. And the growth fetishists keep on promoting having kids and large families (see India, Pakistan and what else ...)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: bigic on April 23, 2020, 11:34:08 AM
Nuclear energy is highly dangerous (see contamination in Central Europe through winds from Ukraine). The soil is still poisoned here and children born with hydrocephalus or short arms.
Actually the cause of Chernobyl disaster is the same as the cause of the COVID-19 epidemic. It's the communist system.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 23, 2020, 11:54:16 AM
As a Green Party voter I of course vigorously oppose nuclear energy.

Nuclear energy is highly dangerous (see contamination in Central Europe through winds from Ukraine). The soil is still poisoned here and children born with hydrocephalus or short arms.

I prefer renewable energy such as water, wind, solar and biomass.

Nuclear energy wouldn’t be needed if there were no overpopulation like we currently have everywhere. And the growth fetishists keep on promoting having kids and large families (see India, Pakistan and what else ...)


Nuclear energy in current state is nothing comparable to the old Soviet technologies. Not even mentioning that renewables are still not stable sources of energy, not all countries have the same conditions for wind, water or solar energy plants. Technologies of energy storage are still in development stage. For countries with still existing heavy industry like Poland renewables are not enough in the short run.


And we do not have overpopulation not even to mention that fertility rates fall down everywhere (and China even is starting to have problems because of that).

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 23, 2020, 12:01:02 PM
Yeah. Of the 2 big disasters with nuclear energy, Chernobyl took Soviet scientists ing around with the power plant for sh**ts and giggles and disregarding even the Soviet security protocols from the time and Fukushima took both an earthquake and a tsunami and a ton of negligence (though less than Chernobyl) to happpen.

As far as I know Austria is not earthquake prone and definitely not a tsunami area; so as long as the plants are relatively modern and operators do their job everything will be ok. France has been using nuclear for ages with 0 issues.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2020, 12:05:53 PM
Yeah. Of the 2 big disasters with nuclear energy, Chernobyl took Soviet scientists ing around with the power plant for sh**ts and giggles and disregarding even the Soviet security protocols from the time and Fukushima took both an earthquake and a tsunami and a ton of negligence (though less than Chernobyl) to happpen.

As far as I know Austria is not earthquake prone and definitely not a tsunami area; so as long as the plants are relatively modern and operators do their job everything will be ok. France has been using nuclear for ages with 0 issues.

Except for the abnormally high cancer rates (leukemia) in the 50km around each reactor ... ::)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Astatine on April 23, 2020, 03:00:36 PM
Yeah. Of the 2 big disasters with nuclear energy, Chernobyl took Soviet scientists ing around with the power plant for sh**ts and giggles and disregarding even the Soviet security protocols from the time and Fukushima took both an earthquake and a tsunami and a ton of negligence (though less than Chernobyl) to happpen.

As far as I know Austria is not earthquake prone and definitely not a tsunami area; so as long as the plants are relatively modern and operators do their job everything will be ok. France has been using nuclear for ages with 0 issues.

Except for the abnormally high cancer rates (leukemia) in the 50km around each reactor ... ::)

Which study are you referring to? The 2012 Geocap study coming to the conclusion that the occurring leukemia rates cannot be explained by gaseous discharges of Nuclear Power Plants? Or the 2008 study stating that a cancer cluster around NPP Krümmel cannot be explained by radiation since there is no release of it so it is a pure statistical cancer cluster which happen to occur.

Even the IPCC calculates with an increase or at least stable number of operating NPPs so the 1.5 °C goal can be reached. Otherwise, it is simply impossible.

An inconvenient truth...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on April 23, 2020, 04:22:29 PM
thorium bruh


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2020, 02:43:47 AM
Yeah. Of the 2 big disasters with nuclear energy, Chernobyl took Soviet scientists ing around with the power plant for sh**ts and giggles and disregarding even the Soviet security protocols from the time and Fukushima took both an earthquake and a tsunami and a ton of negligence (though less than Chernobyl) to happpen.

As far as I know Austria is not earthquake prone and definitely not a tsunami area; so as long as the plants are relatively modern and operators do their job everything will be ok. France has been using nuclear for ages with 0 issues.

Except for the abnormally high cancer rates (leukemia) in the 50km around each reactor ... ::)

Which study are you referring to? The 2012 Geocap study coming to the conclusion that the occurring leukemia rates cannot be explained by gaseous discharges of Nuclear Power Plants? Or the 2008 study stating that a cancer cluster around NPP Krümmel cannot be explained by radiation since there is no release of it so it is a pure statistical cancer cluster which happen to occur.

Even the IPCC calculates with an increase or at least stable number of operating NPPs so the 1.5 °C goal can be reached. Otherwise, it is simply impossible.

An inconvenient truth...

There are numerous studies showing that cancer rates are up for workers in and residents around nuclear reactors.

Google "nuclear power plants + cancer".


Or fusion reactors. I'm generally open to non-radioactive future developments.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2020, 02:47:21 AM
New Ö24 poll (20-23 April):

()

77% approve of the ÖVP-Green government work (99% of ÖVP- and 97% of Green voters)

80% approve of their Coronavirus work (99% of Green, 98% of ÖVP and 66% of SPÖ voters)

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-80-mit-Corona-Politik-der-Regierung-zufrieden/427422043


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2020, 03:02:16 AM
Another Vienna state election poll (Ö24), which largely confirms the OGM poll above:

()

Direct vote for mayor (hypothetical, the mayor is not directly elected):

()

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Keine-Mehrheit-ohne-Rot-SPOe-legt-in-Umfrage-zur-Wien-Wahl-zu/427477818

The ÖVP is in a bit of a tricky situation in Vienna: Gernot Blümel, Vienna-ÖVP leader, is also the new Austrian Finance Minister since January and has his work cut out in the next months due to the financial consequences of Coronavirus. It will be pretty hard for the ÖVP to let him also campaign in Vienna. And what comes after the election ? Assuming ÖVP-Greens-NEOS get a majority ... should Blümel quit as Finance Minister and become the new mayor of Vienna ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2020, 03:14:03 AM
Also:

A 100% postal vote for the October Vienna state election is legally not possible.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-als-reine-briefwahl-wohl-nicht-moeglich/6589801

For this, the constitution would have to be changed. A virus outbreak is not mentioned in the constitution.

Still, it is possible that 25-50% will vote by post this time. This would limit the amount of people at polling stations.

Anyway, there were no lines before either ... you never have to wait more than 1 or 2 minutes in Austrian elections to vote.

Hour-long lines like in the US are unthinkable here.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Oryxslayer on April 24, 2020, 06:25:07 AM
Also:

A 100% postal vote for the October Vienna state election is legally not possible.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-als-reine-briefwahl-wohl-nicht-moeglich/6589801

For this, the constitution would have to be changed. A virus outbreak is not mentioned in the constitution.

Still, it is possible that 25-50% will vote by post this time. This would limit the amount of people at polling stations.

Anyway, there were no lines before either ... you never have to wait more than 1 or 2 minutes in Austrian elections to vote.

Hour-long lines like in the US are unthinkable here.

On the other hand, lines may be necessary. As we saw in IL/WI, polling stations had to limit the number of available booths, because booths needed to be separated by more space than previously. Lines also had to observe social distancing protocols, and therefore ended up longer than previously. On the other hand, the US ballot is incredibly long when compared to other nations, so voters spend more time inside the booth.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2020, 07:22:36 AM
Also:

A 100% postal vote for the October Vienna state election is legally not possible.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-als-reine-briefwahl-wohl-nicht-moeglich/6589801

For this, the constitution would have to be changed. A virus outbreak is not mentioned in the constitution.

Still, it is possible that 25-50% will vote by post this time. This would limit the amount of people at polling stations.

Anyway, there were no lines before either ... you never have to wait more than 1 or 2 minutes in Austrian elections to vote.

Hour-long lines like in the US are unthinkable here.

On the other hand, lines may be necessary. As we saw in IL/WI, polling stations had to limit the number of available booths, because booths needed to be separated by more space than previously. Lines also had to observe social distancing protocols, and therefore ended up longer than previously. On the other hand, the US ballot is incredibly long when compared to other nations, so voters spend more time inside the booth.

Yeah, but if 50% vote by postal ballot this year and there's only 200 people left per precinct to vote in person, then only a handful of people will enter the polling station.

Maybe 1 or 2 people every minute ...

We don't have those large precincts that you see in the US. There are states where people simply can go to a precinct they want, creating big lines.

Here, every voter is assigned to a precinct and can only vote there (unless you bring your postal ballot with you to another precinct). That means only 400 per precinct.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Oryxslayer on April 24, 2020, 08:40:26 AM
Also:

A 100% postal vote for the October Vienna state election is legally not possible.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-als-reine-briefwahl-wohl-nicht-moeglich/6589801

For this, the constitution would have to be changed. A virus outbreak is not mentioned in the constitution.

Still, it is possible that 25-50% will vote by post this time. This would limit the amount of people at polling stations.

Anyway, there were no lines before either ... you never have to wait more than 1 or 2 minutes in Austrian elections to vote.

Hour-long lines like in the US are unthinkable here.

On the other hand, lines may be necessary. As we saw in IL/WI, polling stations had to limit the number of available booths, because booths needed to be separated by more space than previously. Lines also had to observe social distancing protocols, and therefore ended up longer than previously. On the other hand, the US ballot is incredibly long when compared to other nations, so voters spend more time inside the booth.

Yeah, but if 50% vote by postal ballot this year and there's only 200 people left per precinct to vote in person, then only a handful of people will enter the polling station.

Maybe 1 or 2 people every minute ...

We don't have those large precincts that you see in the US. There are states where people simply can go to a precinct they want, creating big lines.

Here, every voter is assigned to a precinct and can only vote there (unless you bring your postal ballot with you to another precinct). That means only 400 per precinct.

The super-precincts were emergency creations when it was realized poll workers were scared of showing up, something that hopefully won't be a case in a few months. Outside of those super-precincts voting works similar in the US, there is just more people so the 'matched' precincts have an average of 1.5K people. Social distancing guidelines were and still need to be respected at the matched precincts, and I hope Austria and every nation that tries to hold elections will respect health standards.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2020, 10:48:20 AM
Also:

A 100% postal vote for the October Vienna state election is legally not possible.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-als-reine-briefwahl-wohl-nicht-moeglich/6589801

For this, the constitution would have to be changed. A virus outbreak is not mentioned in the constitution.

Still, it is possible that 25-50% will vote by post this time. This would limit the amount of people at polling stations.

Anyway, there were no lines before either ... you never have to wait more than 1 or 2 minutes in Austrian elections to vote.

Hour-long lines like in the US are unthinkable here.

On the other hand, lines may be necessary. As we saw in IL/WI, polling stations had to limit the number of available booths, because booths needed to be separated by more space than previously. Lines also had to observe social distancing protocols, and therefore ended up longer than previously. On the other hand, the US ballot is incredibly long when compared to other nations, so voters spend more time inside the booth.

Yeah, but if 50% vote by postal ballot this year and there's only 200 people left per precinct to vote in person, then only a handful of people will enter the polling station.

Maybe 1 or 2 people every minute ...

We don't have those large precincts that you see in the US. There are states where people simply can go to a precinct they want, creating big lines.

Here, every voter is assigned to a precinct and can only vote there (unless you bring your postal ballot with you to another precinct). That means only 400 per precinct.

The super-precincts were emergency creations when it was realized poll workers were scared of showing up, something that hopefully won't be a case in a few months. Outside of those super-precincts voting works similar in the US, there is just more people so the 'matched' precincts have an average of 1.5K people. Social distancing guidelines were and still need to be respected at the matched precincts, and I hope Austria and every nation that tries to hold elections will respect health standards.

Correct.

There are precincts in some parts of the US (Florida etc.) that have on average 1.500 to 3.000 people !

Whereas most European countries only have 400-800 people per precinct.

What’s also creating the hours-long lines in the US:

Election Day is a Tuesday (= workday) and not a Sunday.

A Sunday is vastly preferable, because voting is spread out during the day - but on a workday people are lining up at noon or after work.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 24, 2020, 11:28:46 AM
New Ö24 poll (20-23 April):

()

77% approve of the ÖVP-Green government work (99% of ÖVP- and 97% of Green voters)

80% approve of their Coronavirus work (99% of Green, 98% of ÖVP and 66% of SPÖ voters)

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-80-mit-Corona-Politik-der-Regierung-zufrieden/427422043

Record equalling low for the SPO - how long before there are serious changes there?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2020, 11:43:48 AM
New Ö24 poll (20-23 April):

()

77% approve of the ÖVP-Green government work (99% of ÖVP- and 97% of Green voters)

80% approve of their Coronavirus work (99% of Green, 98% of ÖVP and 66% of SPÖ voters)

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-80-mit-Corona-Politik-der-Regierung-zufrieden/427422043

Record equalling low for the SPO - how long before there are serious changes there?

If the SPÖ gets ousted in Vienna after 130 years by ÖVP-Greens-NEOS in October.

But I guess that won’t happen, the SPÖ will get 40% and with FPÖ/DAÖ at 10%+ no majority for Black-Green-Pink should be possible.

The SPÖ will dodge another bullet and their federal decline will continue for another year or so.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on April 26, 2020, 01:58:01 AM
The ÖVP-Green government is readying their "Kurz-Bucks":

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Polit-Coup-Kommt-Corona-Geld-fuer-alle/427707146

On Monday, Chancellor Kurz will deliver a "State of the Nation" speech to Austrians (75th anniversary of the 2nd Republic).

Apparently, ÖVP-Greens are planning a major tax cut and handout program already this or early next year, with 2.000€ for every person (= 2.500$).

The article actually says "families", which could mean I will get nothing ... :(

Families already got a family bonus under ÖVP-FPÖ, so why again ? They should do more for the average worker who has no family.

Also, tax incentives for (small) businesses.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2020, 09:12:48 AM
University of Salzburg study among 330 young people in Austria (aged 13-24) on the topic of antisemitism:

80% are not antisemitic/somewhat or strongly prosemitic
20% are potentially antisemitic to strongly antisemitic

The 20% group ranges from such statements as "I heard Jews are rich." to "I hate Jews."

Among the 20% group, 2/3 are Muslim youth.

Quote
Die Religionszugehörigkeit der Befragten fiel besonders ins Gewicht, erklärte Edtmaier. So seien muslimische Jugendliche bzw. jene mit türkischer und ex-jugoslawischer Migrationsgeschichte innerhalb des Antisemitismus-Spektrums überrepräsentiert. Fast zwei Drittel aller Jugendlichen, die sich (potenziell) antisemitisch äußerten, gaben an, muslimischen Glaubens zu sein. Sie äußerten besonders im Kontext des Israel-Palästina Konflikts Abneigung gegen Juden und ergriffen meist klar Partei für die Palästinenser.

https://salzburg.orf.at/stories/3046764


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2020, 12:15:52 AM
What is the SPÖ doing now ?

* Party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has nothing better to do than announcing a leadership confirmation vote among party members in March/April !

The SPÖ could position themselves as an anti-corruption party, but choose once again to be preoccupied with themselves instead ... ::)

About 180.000 SPÖ party members will be eligible to vote on her.

Today, the SJ (Socialist Youth, and ca. 10.000 of those 180.000 members), announced that they will vote AGAINST Rend-Wagner in the membership vote.

That's not totally uncommon, because the SJ historically always was the most critical and most anti-establishment.

But not a good start for Rendi-Wagner ... (some SPÖ-mayors from bigger cities have also openly said that the SPÖ needs a complete re-start).

Rendi-Wagner has said that she has a "personal support level", but would not announce how high it is. For example, if 60% support her as party leader and her personal level was 65% ... she could still step down.

So ... there was this vote.

The result was originally planned for release in early April, but because of the virus it will be released on Wednesday.

Rendi-Wagner said she "hopes" for a good result (which she'll probably get => 70%+), but who knows ? Maybe she'll step down this week.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2020, 11:31:59 AM
Former FPÖ-leader Strache will announce his new party on May 15.

Currently, it is called "DAÖ" (Alliance for Austria) - but could get renamed soon for the Vienna state election in October, with Strache's name in it.

Strache says his new party will be a "Citizen's Movement" and a "guardian of the constitution".

https://www.tt.com/artikel/30730642/hueter-der-verfassung-strache-stellt-am-15-mai-neue-buergerbewegung-vor


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2020, 11:12:53 AM
What is the SPÖ doing now ?

* Party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has nothing better to do than announcing a leadership confirmation vote among party members in March/April !

The SPÖ could position themselves as an anti-corruption party, but choose once again to be preoccupied with themselves instead ... ::)

About 180.000 SPÖ party members will be eligible to vote on her.

Today, the SJ (Socialist Youth, and ca. 10.000 of those 180.000 members), announced that they will vote AGAINST Rend-Wagner in the membership vote.

That's not totally uncommon, because the SJ historically always was the most critical and most anti-establishment.

But not a good start for Rendi-Wagner ... (some SPÖ-mayors from bigger cities have also openly said that the SPÖ needs a complete re-start).

Rendi-Wagner has said that she has a "personal support level", but would not announce how high it is. For example, if 60% support her as party leader and her personal level was 65% ... she could still step down.

So ... there was this vote.

The result was originally planned for release in early April, but because of the virus it will be released on Wednesday.

Rendi-Wagner said she "hopes" for a good result (which she'll probably get => 70%+), but who knows ? Maybe she'll step down this week.

Rendi-Wagner wins the SPÖ leadership membership confidence vote with 71%.

29% voted against her.

Turnout was ca. 42% of all SPÖ party members.

She said this is „enough support for her to continue“.

https://orf.at/stories/3164578


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 06, 2020, 11:37:21 AM
Is that sort of turnout normal for internal party elections? Looks a bit on the low side to me.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2020, 11:48:41 AM
Is that sort of turnout normal for internal party elections? Looks a bit on the low side to me.

It was the first time the SPÖ did such a leadership membership vote ...

SPÖ (until now), ÖVP and FPÖ do not let their members vote on leadership issues, they have party conventions with party delegates (every 2 years) to approve them (usually with 90%+).

In previous years, only certain party platform topics were approved or not approved in such votes.

Former Chancellor Kern for example held a program survey too, but this one only had 18% turnout among party members, so Rendi-Wagners vote can be seen as „high“ turnout ... :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 07, 2020, 10:53:10 AM
New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Hnv1 on May 07, 2020, 12:17:18 PM
New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823
I want an OVP-NEOS government that will pass the constitution amendment about debt and deficit!


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 08, 2020, 07:48:00 AM
New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823
I want an OVP-NEOS government that will pass the constitution amendment about debt and deficit!

ÖVP + NEOS would have 51%.

That’s far away from a 67% constitutional majority ... ;)

Besides, while I’d be in favour of the constitutional deficit and debt brake as well, it has failed in the past because while ÖVP+FPÖ (with the support from NEOS) had a 2/3 majority in the Nationalrat, it got blocked by the SPÖ and Greens in the Bundesrat chamber.

I do not want ÖVP-NEOS though. Way too neo-liberal.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Hnv1 on May 09, 2020, 03:08:17 AM
New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823
I want an OVP-NEOS government that will pass the constitution amendment about debt and deficit!

ÖVP + NEOS would have 51%.

That’s far away from a 67% constitutional majority ... ;)

Besides, while I’d be in favour of the constitutional deficit and debt brake as well, it has failed in the past because while ÖVP+FPÖ (with the support from NEOS) had a 2/3 majority in the Nationalrat, it got blocked by the SPÖ and Greens in the Bundesrat chamber.

I do not want ÖVP-NEOS though. Way too neo-liberal.
But the FPO would vote for even if they were left out of the government right?

How are the OVP not sweeping the different Lander and taking full control of the Bundesrat? is this similar to Germany where somehow the SPD continues to have good grip of states despite poor federal results?

I don't know much about the NEOS, I had the impression that they were more moderate liberals than libertarian fanboys, and much more internationalist than the FDP. If a grand coalition is untenable than I would rather have OVP-NEOS. Greens politics was decent in the past, but the young greens are taking a massive turn to the left


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 09, 2020, 03:13:35 AM
New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823
I want an OVP-NEOS government that will pass the constitution amendment about debt and deficit!

ÖVP + NEOS would have 51%.

That’s far away from a 67% constitutional majority ... ;)

Besides, while I’d be in favour of the constitutional deficit and debt brake as well, it has failed in the past because while ÖVP+FPÖ (with the support from NEOS) had a 2/3 majority in the Nationalrat, it got blocked by the SPÖ and Greens in the Bundesrat chamber.

I do not want ÖVP-NEOS though. Way too neo-liberal.
But the FPO would vote for even if they were left out of the government right?

How are the OVP not sweeping the different Lander and taking full control of the Bundesrat? is this similar to Germany where somehow the SPD continues to have good grip of states despite poor federal results?

I don't know much about the NEOS, I had the impression that they were more moderate liberals than libertarian fanboys, and much more internationalist than the FDP. If a grand coalition is untenable than I would rather have OVP-NEOS. Greens politics was decent in the past, but the young greens are taking a massive turn to the left

If there were indeed a ÖVP-NEOS government and they would introduce a constitutional deficit and debt brake proposal, the FPÖ could support it.

But on the other hand, you never know what the FPÖ wants ... they could also be against, because they want to block the government in such a case.

Anyway, SPÖ+Greens have more than 1/3 of seats in the Bundesrat, blocking the proposal. Even if the FPÖ votes yes, it would get no constitutional majority there.

The Bundesrat composition is indeed based on the latest state election results. Therefore the SPÖ is stronger there relative to the Nationalrat, because the SPÖ gets decent shares in Vienna, Burgenland and Carinthia + the Green results in the states are better as well. The Bundesrat also favours the parties which got 10%+ in state elections, that's why NEOS is not represented there at all.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: crals on May 11, 2020, 09:53:27 AM
What would be the advantage of such a brake? The Austrian left doesn't seem to be fiscally irresponsible.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 11, 2020, 11:59:24 AM
What would be the advantage of such a brake? The Austrian left doesn't seem to be fiscally irresponsible.

That we don’t end up like Greece and keep a constantly balanced budget, therefore reducing debt as a percentage of GDP. Debt has shot up from 20% of GDP in the 1970s to 85% a few years ago. Now down to 69% last year, but will be up to 80% this year.

That excludes years with natural disasters or a crisis like this year.

This year, we’ll have a budget deficit of 5-10% of GDP vs. a planned surplus of 1%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2020, 02:23:42 PM
German-born Prof. Dr. Tobias Thomas will become the new head of STATISTICS Austria, after the previous (Faymann-appointed) leader Konrad Pesendorfer resigned and decided to become head of Statistics Saudi-Arabia:

http://ecoaustria.ac.at/en/dr-tobias-thomas/

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117472852/statistik-austria-neuer-chef-mit-gutem-draht-zur-industriellenvereinigung


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 14, 2020, 12:58:44 PM
Support for the ÖVP+Green government has definitely peaked in the past weeks and it can only go downhill from now on ...

New Ö24 poll (May 11-13, n=1.000):

44% ÖVP (-1)
18% SPÖ (+1)
17% Greens (-1)
11% FPÖ (+1)
  7% NEOS (+1)
  2% DAÖ (-1)
  1% Others (n.c.)

ÖVP-Green general job approval: 72%
ÖVP-Green COVID job approval: 75%

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200514_OTS0232/oesterreich-umfrage-spoe-ueberholt-die-gruenen


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 14, 2020, 11:44:50 PM
New Market/Standard poll (May 11-13, n=1.000):

44% ÖVP (n.c.)
21% SPÖ (+1)
17% Greens (-1)
11% FPÖ (+1)
  6% NEOS (-1)
  1% Others (n.c.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117493669/oevp-bleibt-weit-vorn-spoe-sichert-zweiten-platz-ab


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 15, 2020, 07:58:40 AM
DAÖ doesn’t exist anymore ... it’s now called „Team H.C. Strache - Alliance for Austria.“

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-05/heinz-christian-strache-oesterreich-fpoe-neue-partei

DAÖ was always just an interim vehicle for Strache’s comeback anyway.

()

The logo looks similar to „Team Stronach“ (and I guess Strache’s party will fail just as badly, but by cutting the FPÖs share).

...

In other news, State Secretary for Culture Ulrike Lunacek (Greens) has stepped down today.

I haven’t read much about it, but apparently she got under enormous pressure from the culture and art scene in Austria, which is on the verge of collapse as a consequence of Coronavirus ...

https://orf.at/stories/3165804


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 15, 2020, 08:33:33 AM
The SPÖ of my home state Salzburg will get a new, young party leader on July 1:

David Egger (33)



Frankly, I have heard the name for the first time today ... :P

A complete newcomer who worked as a radio moderator and in PR.

https://salzburg.orf.at/stories/3048769


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 15, 2020, 08:44:31 AM
These political parties named after people, do they ever last?

(in Austria you've got the recent Pilz example as well)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 15, 2020, 08:57:43 AM
These political parties named after people, do they ever last?

(in Austria you've got the recent Pilz example as well)

Very simple:

Strache needs to get 5%+ in the October 11 Vienna state election, or he’ll already be history again ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 15, 2020, 03:56:46 PM
These political parties named after people, do they ever last?

(in Austria you've got the recent Pilz example as well)

Very simple:

Strache needs to get 5%+ in the October 11 Vienna state election, or he’ll already be history again ...

Hopefully he won't, then!


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 16, 2020, 03:02:18 AM
3rd new poll (Unique Research/Profil magazine):

46% ÖVP (-2)
17% SPÖ (+1)
15% Greens (-1)
14% FPÖ (+1)
  6% NEOS (n.c.)
  2% Others (+1)

Quote
Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: n = 802 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 11. bis 14. Mai 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kurz-zuspruch-11478926


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 16, 2020, 03:26:49 AM
Interesting finding from a new ATV/Hajek poll today:

Quote
"If there's a major second wave of infections in Austria, should there be another complete shutdown of society and the economy ?"

51% No
41% Yes

"No" by party voters: 71% NEOS, 71% FPÖ, 54% SPÖ, 47% ÖVP and 40% Greens.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200516_OTS0014/atv-frage-der-woche-51-der-oesterreicherinnen-sprechen-sich-gegen-totalen-lockdown-bei-weiterer-infektionswelle-aus


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 16, 2020, 09:54:08 AM
Ammunition for the FPÖ+Strache:

https://www.krone.at/2155610

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-mehr-als-100-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 16, 2020, 11:37:57 AM
Interesting finding from a new ATV/Hajek poll today:

Quote
"If there's a major second wave of infections in Austria, should there be another complete shutdown of society and the economy ?"

51% No
41% Yes

"No" by party voters: 71% NEOS, 71% FPÖ, 54% SPÖ, 47% ÖVP and 40% Greens.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200516_OTS0014/atv-frage-der-woche-51-der-oesterreicherinnen-sprechen-sich-gegen-totalen-lockdown-bei-weiterer-infektionswelle-aus

Lockdowns weren't just designed to slow the spread of the virus, but to buy time to help us better able to counter it even without a vaccine (more effective treatments and so on)

If not much progress has been made on that front, we do indeed have a problem.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 16, 2020, 02:11:59 PM
Ammunition for the FPÖ+Strache:

https://www.krone.at/2155610

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-mehr-als-100-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560

Hmm, this scandal has the potential to become a political nuclear bomb for the Vienna-SPÖ (and for the Austrian Post):

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-mehr-als-100-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560

If the reports are true, then many asylum seekers who were put into a 14-day quarantine at the Vienna convention center a few weeks ago were hired by the Austrian Postal Service and were able to get out of the convention center during their quarantine (!) and go to work at the post distribution centers ...

The SPÖ city councillor for health is downplaying it, but for how long ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2020, 12:55:43 AM
Strache’s new party is not starting well:

Christian Höbart, his new general secretary (and also an ex-FPÖ member of the Austrian Parliament) posted a picture groping the boobs of his wife during a trip on Social Media.

()

https://www.krone.at/2155557


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2020, 03:43:57 PM
After the resignation of Ulrike Lunacek (Greens) as State Secretary for Culture, the Greens announced today that Andrea Mayer will succeed her.

Mayer is the current Chief of Staff for President Van der Bellen.

https://orf.at/stories/3166191


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 23, 2020, 01:23:14 PM
Market poll for the "Standard" (May 18-19):

43% ÖVP
21% SPÖ
17% Greens
12% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  1% Others

65% the current measures by ÖVP-Greens to prevent the spread of the virus are justified
30% the measures are overblown
  5% the measures are not strict enough

32% ÖVP-Greens should open up the economy/society faster
23% it should be opened slower than right now
46% the current pace of opening-up is about right

(Boomers are the most in favour of opening up faster, while young voters are the most sceptical.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117614965/weniger-persoenliche-sorgen-weniger-zustimmung-zu-kurz


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on May 23, 2020, 03:40:45 PM
Hopefully KPÖ can make a breaktrough


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 23, 2020, 11:41:28 PM
Hopefully KPÖ can make a breaktrough

They won't. They are only strong in Graz/Styria.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 24, 2020, 04:18:56 AM
Market poll for the "Standard" (May 18-19):

43% ÖVP
21% SPÖ
17% Greens
12% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  1% Others

65% the current measures by ÖVP-Greens to prevent the spread of the virus are justified
30% the measures are overblown
  5% the measures are not strict enough

32% ÖVP-Greens should open up the economy/society faster
23% it should be opened slower than right now
46% the current pace of opening-up is about right

(Boomers are the most in favour of opening up faster, while young voters are the most sceptical.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117614965/weniger-persoenliche-sorgen-weniger-zustimmung-zu-kurz

What shocking news.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 24, 2020, 10:06:22 AM
Hilarious story about Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) and his wife:

Austrian restaurants are open again, but they need to close at 11pm (therefore nightclubs are not allowed yet).

20 minutes after midnight today, police were called to a restaurant in Vienna where an "obviously romantic couple" was still sitting in the outside area.

The "romantic couple" was President VdB and his wife Doris ... :)

Police filed a report with the responsible Vienna district administration about the gastronomy violation resulting from it.

The office of VdB confirmed the incident and the President apologized for it today, saying "he and his wife were deeply in talks and must have forgotten about the time".

The restaurant owner said that he closed everything at 11pm and expected guests still outside to leave eventually.

The FPÖ mocked the President today for it.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117665947/bundespraesident-war-zu-lang-im-gastgarten

Should be noted that President VdB currently has no bodyguards or "secret service" protection and therefore the 2 were really alone there. He often goes shopping too alone or is riding the subway alone.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 24, 2020, 10:21:11 AM
Hilarious story about Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) and his wife:

Austrian restaurants are open again, but they need to close at 11pm (therefore nightclubs are not allowed yet).

20 minutes after midnight today, police were called to a restaurant in Vienna where an "obviously romantic couple" was still sitting in the outside area.

The "romantic couple" was President VdB and his wife Doris ... :)

Police filed a report with the responsible Vienna district administration about the gastronomy violation resulting from it.

The office of VdB confirmed the incident and the President apologized for it today, saying "he and his wife were deeply in talks and must have forgotten about the time".

The restaurant owner said that he closed everything at 11pm and expected guests still outside to leave eventually.

The FPÖ mocked the President today for it.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117665947/bundespraesident-war-zu-lang-im-gastgarten

Should be noted that President VdB currently has no bodyguards or "secret service" protection and therefore the 2 were really alone there. He often goes shopping too alone or is riding the subway alone.

There is also a more serious aspect after all:

Quote
The Vienna police confirmed a corresponding report on Krone.at on Sunday afternoon. According to the report, the two prominent guests also had drinks on the table during the routine police check-up at 0.18 a.m. - which, according to Covid 19 law, is prohibited after 11 p.m.

This could have expensive consequences for the host. For violations of the Covid 19 measure laws, restaurateurs - for example, keeping open after 11:00 p.m. - are subject to a fine of up to 30,000 euros. Officially, the restaurant was already closed at this point.

In other words: the President and his wife + the restaurant owner broke the law.

While the President is immune to prosecution, his wife and the restaurant owner are not.

Also:

Quote
Immunity

The Austrian President enjoys full sovereign immunity from any type of official prosecution, including civil suit and criminal prosecution. The president may only be prosecuted with the explicit consent of the Federal Assembly. If a government authority intends to prosecute the president, it must refer a request for extradition to the National Council. If the National Council approves, the chancellor must convene the Federal Assembly, which will then decide over the request for extradition.

Will be interesting to see if the FPÖ files a motion to revoke the immunity of the President to charge him with a crime.

The Greens never missed a chance to vote for revoking the immunity of FPÖ-politicians, so the FPÖ could "return the favour" this time ... :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 24, 2020, 10:35:20 AM
This also has bad optics ... it could re-enforce the perception in the population that VdB is elitist and the Greens are kinda smug and don't care for laws, while the population needs to uphold them.

Good ammunition for the FPÖ.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 24, 2020, 11:51:11 AM
Van der Bellen says he will pay the fine of the Italian restaurant owner, if charged.

Not clear yet if the Van der Bellens will be charged too ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 29, 2020, 08:17:43 AM
New poll:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 29, 2020, 12:49:43 PM
How does that compare with previously?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2020, 11:22:17 AM
How does that compare with previously?

ÖVP & Greens down 1% each, FPÖ/Strache up 1% each.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2020, 11:31:15 AM
In other news, Austria’s budget for 2020 was finally passed in parliament yesterday.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117786757/was-bei-einem-budget-mit-zahlenfehler-passiert-waere

Not only is it just a forecast budget, because nobody really knows what the final burden on the economy will be because of the virus shutdown and slowdown, but the budget deficit could be anywhere between 6% and 12% this year.

Also: the draft paper included a huge mistake. Instead of reading „outlays of 102 billion €“, it said 102.000€ - which would have made Austria bankrupt within a few hours after being passed by parliament. Someone forgot to include 6 zeros into the text. The text was changed during the night and the corrected budget paper was approved yesterday morning.

A motion of no-confidence against ÖVP finance minister Blümel for gross incompetence was not successful.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: jaymichaud on May 30, 2020, 02:01:03 PM
Is SPÖ going the way of SPD? They seem to be struggling a lot more than they should be.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2020, 11:19:26 AM
Is SPÖ going the way of SPD? They seem to be struggling a lot more than they should be.

More or less.

They could try a leadership change, but that probably won’t help them either.

The SPÖ is under attack from all sides and would need to completely re-invent itself.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2020, 11:21:28 AM
New Vienna poll for the October 11 state election:

()

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wien/Tuerkis-Gruen-Pink-Kopf-an-Kopf-mit-Rot-Gruen/431933793


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 04, 2020, 11:15:40 PM
New Oct. 11 Vienna state election poll (Unique Research/"Heute" newspaper):

()

Turnout: 78% (+3.2%)

2015:

39.6% SPÖ
30.8% FPÖ
11.8% Greens
  9.2% ÖVP
  6.2% NEOS
  2.4% Others

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-umfrage-fpoe-stuerzt-ab-strache-ueberholt-nepp-100085632


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 07, 2020, 12:54:43 PM
The Vice-Governor of Tyrol state (ÖVP) has recently called a female environmentalist NGO-leader a widerwärtiges Luder during a TV-interview with her.

Translated, it basically means „disgusting bitch“.


After an apology, he will remain in office ...

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/tiroler-oevp-landesvize-beschimpft-wwf-vertreterin-vor-laufender-kamera/400930886

PS: the ÖVP is in a coalition with the environmentalist Greens in Tyrol, with the Green-leader Ingrid Felipe standing next to him.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 07, 2020, 01:41:17 PM
Coronavirus seems to have no impact on voter turnout ...

The Perchtoldsdorf city council by-election today had 60% turnout, up from 56% in 2015.

It is a city in the southern suburbs of Vienna with ca. 15.000 people.

ÖVP gets 48%, but lost 11%.

Greens 19% (+8).

Indys 13% (+6).

SPÖ 9% (-2).

NEOS 8% (+3).

FPÖ 2% (-5).

https://perchtoldsdorf.riskommunal.net/system/web/GetDocument.ashx?fileid=2292706

Ca. 45% of all votes that were cast were postal votes.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 08, 2020, 11:32:27 AM
A Chancellor Kurz „homestory“ parody by Styrian students is going viral:




The guy who plays the Chancellor at „his home“ not only looks like Kurz, but also speaks and gestures like him ... :)

Other recent examples are Kurz singing:




Or Strache’s comeback as the „Great Dictator“:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Astatine on June 09, 2020, 08:08:41 AM
New Oct. 11 Vienna state election poll (Unique Research/"Heute" newspaper):

()

Turnout: 78% (+3.2%)

2015:

39.6% SPÖ
30.8% FPÖ
11.8% Greens
  9.2% ÖVP
  6.2% NEOS
  2.4% Others

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-umfrage-fpoe-stuerzt-ab-strache-ueberholt-nepp-100085632

Extremely unlikely, but I would love to see both FPÖ and Strache fail the threshold.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 11, 2020, 12:29:20 AM
I sent an email to the election department of Vienna to inquire what their planning is for the Oct. 11 state election and how they can avoid US-style chaos with postal ballots.

It is expected that half of the 850.000 votes or so in October will be postal ballots.

That would mean ca. 500.000 requests and about 440.000 returned postal ballots.

In 2015, there were just 205.000 requests.

Let’s see if and what they send back to me ... :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2020, 12:15:32 AM
2 new polls today (1x Austria, 1x Vienna state election):

(right-click for big versions)

() ()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on June 12, 2020, 06:58:31 AM
New Oct. 11 Vienna state election poll (Unique Research/"Heute" newspaper):

()

Turnout: 78% (+3.2%)

2015:

39.6% SPÖ
30.8% FPÖ
11.8% Greens
  9.2% ÖVP
  6.2% NEOS
  2.4% Others

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-umfrage-fpoe-stuerzt-ab-strache-ueberholt-nepp-100085632

Extremely unlikely, but I would love to see both FPÖ and Strache fail the threshold.

Possible if there is an almost perfect 50/50 split and they both fall just below it ;)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2020, 08:52:16 AM
The Kronen Zeitung newspaper (once pushing the FPÖ/Populist agenda, then Strache wanted to take them over in his Ibiza video) is out with a major hit job against Strache today:

()

„Strache filed pharmacy purchases as party expenses. Among them: Viagra.“


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Omega21 on June 12, 2020, 03:21:58 PM
The Kronen Zeitung newspaper (once pushing the FPÖ/Populist agenda, then Strache wanted to take them over in his Ibiza video) is out with a major hit job against Strache today:

()

„Strache filed pharmacy purchases as party expenses. Among them: Viagra.“

FPÖ

F***ing party of Austria lol


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2020, 09:46:45 AM
Vienna poll (ATV/Hajek):

38% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
17% Greens
  8% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  6% THC
  2% Others

If Kickl runs as lead candidate for the Vienna-FPÖ in October, instead of Nepp, it wouldn't change anything according to the poll.

Support for re-unification between FPÖ and THC ?

Among FPÖ-voters: 40% for, 48% against
Among THC-voters: 55% for, 30% against
Among ÖVP-voters: ca. 10% for

Quote
Bei der aktuellen Umfrage wurden 800 wahlberechtigte WienerInnen ab 16 Jahren zu politischen Themen befragt. Die Umfrage wurde zwischen dem 5. und 10. Juni 2020 durchgeführt, die maximale Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse liegt bei +/- 3,4 %.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200612_OTS0121/atv-wien-trend-spoe-bei-wien-wahl-stabil-in-front-38-fpoe-auch-mit-kickl-als-spitzenkanditat-im-keller-8


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Astatine on June 13, 2020, 11:16:54 AM
[...]

  6% THC
  2% Others

Support for re-unification between FPÖ and THC ?

Among FPÖ-voters: 40% for, 48% against
Among THC-voters: 55% for, 30% against
Among ÖVP-voters: ca. 10% for

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200612_OTS0121/atv-wien-trend-spoe-bei-wien-wahl-stabil-in-front-38-fpoe-auch-mit-kickl-als-spitzenkanditat-im-keller-8

THC is an... interesting abbreviation for Strache's Party. ;)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Hnv1 on June 14, 2020, 04:07:26 AM
Hilarious story about Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) and his wife:

Austrian restaurants are open again, but they need to close at 11pm (therefore nightclubs are not allowed yet).

20 minutes after midnight today, police were called to a restaurant in Vienna where an "obviously romantic couple" was still sitting in the outside area.

The "romantic couple" was President VdB and his wife Doris ... :)

Police filed a report with the responsible Vienna district administration about the gastronomy violation resulting from it.

The office of VdB confirmed the incident and the President apologized for it today, saying "he and his wife were deeply in talks and must have forgotten about the time".

The restaurant owner said that he closed everything at 11pm and expected guests still outside to leave eventually.

The FPÖ mocked the President today for it.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117665947/bundespraesident-war-zu-lang-im-gastgarten

Should be noted that President VdB currently has no bodyguards or "secret service" protection and therefore the 2 were really alone there. He often goes shopping too alone or is riding the subway alone.

There is also a more serious aspect after all:

Quote
The Vienna police confirmed a corresponding report on Krone.at on Sunday afternoon. According to the report, the two prominent guests also had drinks on the table during the routine police check-up at 0.18 a.m. - which, according to Covid 19 law, is prohibited after 11 p.m.

This could have expensive consequences for the host. For violations of the Covid 19 measure laws, restaurateurs - for example, keeping open after 11:00 p.m. - are subject to a fine of up to 30,000 euros. Officially, the restaurant was already closed at this point.

In other words: the President and his wife + the restaurant owner broke the law.

While the President is immune to prosecution, his wife and the restaurant owner are not.

Also:

Quote
Immunity

The Austrian President enjoys full sovereign immunity from any type of official prosecution, including civil suit and criminal prosecution. The president may only be prosecuted with the explicit consent of the Federal Assembly. If a government authority intends to prosecute the president, it must refer a request for extradition to the National Council. If the National Council approves, the chancellor must convene the Federal Assembly, which will then decide over the request for extradition.

Will be interesting to see if the FPÖ files a motion to revoke the immunity of the President to charge him with a crime.

The Greens never missed a chance to vote for revoking the immunity of FPÖ-politicians, so the FPÖ could "return the favour" this time ... :P
Austria in a nutshell - a scandal where the President is having a deep relationship with his wife. UK in a nutshell - MPs go to male rent boys


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: CumbrianLefty on June 14, 2020, 06:46:51 AM
[...]

  6% THC
  2% Others

Support for re-unification between FPÖ and THC ?

Among FPÖ-voters: 40% for, 48% against
Among THC-voters: 55% for, 30% against
Among ÖVP-voters: ca. 10% for

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200612_OTS0121/atv-wien-trend-spoe-bei-wien-wahl-stabil-in-front-38-fpoe-auch-mit-kickl-als-spitzenkanditat-im-keller-8

THC is an... interesting abbreviation for Strache's Party. ;)

In what way?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: crals on June 14, 2020, 07:19:45 AM
[...]

  6% THC
  2% Others

Support for re-unification between FPÖ and THC ?

Among FPÖ-voters: 40% for, 48% against
Among THC-voters: 55% for, 30% against
Among ÖVP-voters: ca. 10% for

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200612_OTS0121/atv-wien-trend-spoe-bei-wien-wahl-stabil-in-front-38-fpoe-auch-mit-kickl-als-spitzenkanditat-im-keller-8

THC is an... interesting abbreviation for Strache's Party. ;)

In what way?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrahydrocannabinol


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2020, 01:23:20 PM
More than 52% of Vienna (non-university) students now speak something else than German at home (= primary/native language):

()

It also depends which district they are living in (ranging from 25% to 73%) and which type of school (elementary, middle, vocational, high school, etc.)

Polytechnical schools (whose students often go on to blue-collar jobs) have the highest shares of non-German speakers, while AHS/BHS (who often go on to white-collar jobs such as teaching, bio-tech or banking/insurance jobs) have below-average shares. I for example used to go to a AHS.

Some individual schools in Vienna have 95%+ shares of students with non-German speaking background.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: rob in cal on June 18, 2020, 11:47:37 AM
Tender, do we have the breakdown of which languages are the leading ones by %.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 18, 2020, 12:20:12 PM
Tender, do we have the breakdown of which languages are the leading ones by %.

Can't find it for the latest school year (2018/19), but I once posted the numbers for 2016:

Link (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275728.msg6453043#msg6453043)

Turkish and languages from former Yugoslavia and more recently Arab and Romanian/Bulgarian and Hungarian had huge increases.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 18, 2020, 12:29:40 PM
I sent an email to the election department of Vienna to inquire what their planning is for the Oct. 11 state election and how they can avoid US-style chaos with postal ballots.

It is expected that half of the 850.000 votes or so in October will be postal ballots.

That would mean ca. 500.000 requests and about 440.000 returned postal ballots.

In 2015, there were just 205.000 requests.

Let’s see if and what they send back to me ... :)

I actually got a reply today:

Quote
Dear Mr. xxxxx,

The municipal department 62, as the department responsible for organizing the Vienna municipal and district elections 2020, may thank you for the submitted proposals. We are very happy if citizens are very interested in the so important democratic instrument of an election and also submit suggestions for improving the organizational process.

At the same time, we can assure you that the organizational planning for the 2020 municipal and district elections in Vienna is likely to result in a higher or even very high number of postal voting votes as well as the necessary health protection measures for both those entitled to vote and for the handling electoral staff. Accordingly, the number of employees will be increased to the extent necessary.

The citizens of Vienna will of course also be informed about the measures taken in good time before the elections.

We are at your disposal for any further questions.

Sincerely yours

Magistrate of the City of Vienna
Municipal Department 62
Elections and various legal matters
Lerchenfelder Strasse 4, 1082 Vienna
Tel. + 43/1 / 4000-89401, fax. + 43/1 / 4000-99-89402
http://www.wien.at/verwaltung/ma62


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 20, 2020, 01:05:03 AM
New (Oct. 11) Vienna state election poll by "Market" for the "Standard" (June 15-18):

38% SPÖ (-1.6%)
25% ÖVP (+15.8%)
16% Greens (+4.2%)
  9% FPÖ (-21.8%)
  7% NEOS (+0.8%)
  4% THC (+4.0%)
  1% Others (-1.4%)

Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) is far ahead in the hypothetical mayoral direct vote and voters do not really want change. They favour SPÖ-Greens to continue for another 5 years.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000118200784/umfrage-zeigt-aufwind-fuer-wiener-oevp


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 25, 2020, 10:52:57 AM
I sent an email to the election department of Vienna to inquire what their planning is for the Oct. 11 state election and how they can avoid US-style chaos with postal ballots.

Vienna announced a measure package today for the state elections (Google translated):

Quote
Vienna election: City recommends own pen

Vienna will vote on October 11th. The corona virus pandemic poses special challenges for the city. In order to take precautions, an extensive package of measures has now been put together. It is recommended to take your own pen with you.

Strict security regulations will apply to polling stations if necessary. It is also possible that the end result will come later than usual. A separate pen is also recommended. In the past few weeks, a team consisting of lawyers, health and logistics experts, among others, has been working on how the ballot can be carried out, explained the responsible city councilor Jürgen Czernohorszky (SPÖ) and the head of the municipal department 62 (elections and various legal matters), Christine Bachofner, on Thursday.

Submission deadline is August 14th

The aim is that all persons authorized to do so can exercise their right to vote and that the best possible protection against the risk of infection with the corona virus is granted, it said. As one of the first steps, an amendment to the municipal electoral code will be adopted at the state parliament session on Thursday. Specifically, the deadline is set on July 14th, which is an advance by one week. The deadline for submitting the candidate lists ("election proposals") ends on August 14 for the district and district election proposals and on August 17 for the city election proposals ("state lists").

The deadlines will be brought into line with the National Council regulations - and there is one week more for the organizational handling of the election card issuance. Because in the town hall it is expected that more people than ever will opt for postal voting. There are no estimates yet of how high the share will be, but a massive increase will also make the counting a challenge.

The counting of postal votes is expected to take a long time

For this reason, a further legal clarification will take place: The counting of postal votes does not have to be completed on Monday after the election day, as is currently the case. The preliminary end result could therefore only be available on Tuesday. In any case, there will be more personnel for the counting in the municipal district offices.

It is also not entirely ruled out that, in view of possible safety regulations when counting, the result of the votes cast in the polling station on Sunday will be slightly delayed. This is usually at 8 p.m. The election deadline in Vienna is uniformly at 5:00 p.m. This will not change this year either.

Strict security regulations planned

In order to keep the rush on election day as low as possible, the city itself will increasingly point out the possibility of postal voting. Anyone who comes to the polling station may expect strict security regulations. How strict the measures will be will depend on the corona virus situation or the corresponding legal requirements.

In any case, the following are provided: Compliance with the one-meter distance in the building and in the polling station. Additional folders should ensure this. Extensive cleaning measures are also planned. Furthermore, voters are asked to bring their own pen with them to be checked. However, promises will be made in the pub that they will be disinfected after each use.

Challenge for flying electoral authorities

Polling stations that are smaller than 40 square meters will not be used this year. Also, voting options in nursing homes may only be used by people who live there. If wearing a mouth-nose guard is mandatory on October 11, plexiglass walls will also be built. Because: At least briefly voters will have to remove the protection in order to be identifiable.

The so-called flying electoral authorities who visit people at home are specially equipped. They use double mouth-nose protection and carry, among other things, writing pads that are used only once. The equipment will be far more extensive when visiting Coronavirus infected or suspected cases. In addition to medical masks, protective gowns are then worn, which are destroyed immediately after each use. Medical personnel are also involved in these cases.

13,000 people in action

The local council or the state parliament and the district representations are elected. Around 1.356 million people are eligible to vote. Including assessors, confidants and election witnesses of the parties, around 13,000 people are involved in the Vienna election, according to the town hall.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3054815


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2020, 09:53:51 AM
The SPÖ-Green city government of Vienna has sent 50€ restaurant gift cards to every household.

That comes roughly 3 months before the state election and at a time when restaurants are really struggling, with many closing for good because of the recent months.

The initiative came from Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ), who apparently has learned fast how to apply good populist politics. The vouchers were sent to 950.000 households in the city, with a letter from the mayor included.

()

I expect the Greens and ÖVP to do slightly worse in the election than current polling, but the SPÖ to receive more than 40% and gain compared to 2015 ...



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2020, 11:37:12 AM
Austrian economy to shrink by 7% this year

Quote
June 26 (Reuters) - Austrian economic output will likely not reach its pre-crisis level by the end of 2021 after experiencing a short but deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, economic institute Wifo said on Friday.

The Vienna-based think tank, which compiles data for the government, expects gross domestic product to shrink by 7% this year - the steepest decline since World War Two - before growing by 4.3% next year.

“The low point has already been passed and the recovery phase has started, but there is still a lot of uncertainty about how things will pan out,” Wifo said, adding this particularly applied to how the pandemic develops and what countermeasures will be taken.

Additionally, the IHS institute on Friday forecast that the Austrian economy would contract by 7.3% this year and expand by 5.8% in 2021 as long as there is not a big second wave of coronavirus infections.

(Reporting by Thomas Seythal in Berlin - Editing by Michelle Martin)

https://www.reuters.com/article/austria-economy/austrian-economy-to-shrink-by-7-this-year-wont-hit-pre-crisis-level-in-2021-wifo-idUSL8N2E31H2


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - It’s a ÖVP-Green New Year's Baby !
Post by: Tender Branson on June 27, 2020, 04:26:19 AM
Municipal elections tomorrow in the state of Styria (1.25 million people).

Except in the capital Graz (300.000 people) - which traditionally has a different election date.

805.000 people are eligible to vote.

More than 30.000 have voted early (Styria has an early voting day).

An additional 173.000 requested a postal ballot.

Which means about 180.000 votes will be cast early or by post, out of an expected 550.000-600.000 votes in total.

That's 30-35% of all votes that are going to be cast.

https://steiermark.orf.at/magazin/tags/wahl/

Voters are advised to bring their own pens and need to wear masks when entering the polling place (it is still necessary in Austria to wear masks in official buildings, medical areas and public transport).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 27, 2020, 04:47:34 AM
Had to look it up, but Styria is one of those states that already counts the postal ballots tomorrow after polls close at 4pm.

About 150.000 will be returned + the 34.000 early votes, so let's see how this works.

With an overall turnout of ca. 66-75%, I expect a final result by 9 or 10pm.

If they really count all postal ballots tomorrow. But I guess they will.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 27, 2020, 08:26:00 AM
These are the historical municipal election results of Styria:

()

It should be noted that elections are held in all 285 towns/cities (except the capital Graz).

But the ÖVP is the only party running in all 285.

The SPÖ in 278, the FPÖ in 233, the Greens in 102, the Communists (KPÖ) in 37, NEOS in 30 and Independent lists in 80.

That would explain the historically low results for the Greens, KPÖ and NEOS, because A) they don't have the coverage like they do in state/federal elections and B) their stronghold Graz doesn't vote tomorrow.

It will still be interesting to watch the final result and see if the FPÖ collapses, how much the ÖVP improves from an already high level and if the SPÖ stabilizes or falls again. I also expect gains for the Greens and small gains for the Communists.

The combined statewide results should be:

49% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
  8% FPÖ
  6% Greens
  2% KPÖ
  1% NEOS
  4% Indys


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on June 27, 2020, 08:48:44 AM
Really happy about how things are changing in Austria


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 27, 2020, 08:52:25 AM
Really happy about how things are changing in Austria.

What do you mean ?

BTW: the last polls already close at 3pm tomorrow, not 4pm. 4pm is for state elections.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on June 27, 2020, 08:57:03 AM
Really happy about how things are changing in Austria.

What do you mean ?

BTW: the last polls already close at 3pm tomorrow, not 4pm. 4pm is for state elections.
Decline of FPO


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 27, 2020, 09:01:28 AM
Really happy about how things are changing in Austria.

What do you mean ?

BTW: the last polls already close at 3pm tomorrow, not 4pm. 4pm is for state elections.
Decline of FPÖ.

Ah yeah, that's a nice development.

But ÖVP-Greens won't be popular forever and the FPÖ will at some point rise again ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on June 27, 2020, 10:36:09 AM
Well, a revival of SPO in those circumstances would be nice......


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 27, 2020, 12:43:11 PM
Well, a revival of SPO in those circumstances would be nice......

I think it’s more likely that the SPÖ loses more ground tomorrow than there being a „revival“.

The Greens have better coverage in the Styria municipalities tomorrow compared to 2015, taking votes away from the SPÖ. Also, the KPÖ could take some votes away. FPÖ-voters from 2015 will go mostly to the ÖVP, or stay home.

The chances for a SPÖ „revival“ are much higher in the October election in Vienna ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 27, 2020, 11:53:07 PM
New OGM poll for the "Kurier":

()

ÖVP+Greens down slightly from their COVID-highs a few months ago. SPÖ+FPÖ+NEOS gaining slightly.

Direct vote for Chancellor:

55% Kurz
15% Rendi-Wagner
11% Kogler
11% Hofer
  6% Meinl-Reisinger

Also:

By a 50-48 margin, Austrians are following the current "Ibiza video" investigation committee in parliament, but more than 7 in 10 say that nothing will change in terms of corruption in the country and things will continue like before the video surfaced ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/aktuelle-ogm-umfrage-ibiza-u-ausschuss-ist-fuer-mehrheit-sinnlos/400954649


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2020, 03:36:13 AM
The Styria municipal elections are well underway, with good turnout reported.

It was 74% in 2015, but I guess it will be closer to 70% today.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2020, 08:40:25 AM
Polls have closed and results are coming in:

181/285 towns/cities already counted.

https://egov.stmk.gv.at/wah/pub/stdwahl/stdwahlSet.do

ÖVP gains ca. 4-5%, while the FPÖ loses the same amount.

SPÖ loses 1.5%, while the Greens gain 1% and NEOS/KPÖ the other 0.5%

Turnout is down by 10% compared with 2015.

ORF map:

https://orf.at/wahl/steiermark20/choropleth/winner


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2020, 08:47:09 AM
Result from the town of Eisenerz ("Iron Ore"):

:o :o :o

()

Eisenerz is something like Coal Country in WV.

The city once had 15.000 inhabitants in the 1950s, now just 3.800 anymore.

It has the highest share of people older than 65 in Austria, with a 45% share. (Young) people have abandoned the town after the iron ore mining boom ended.

Now, the town is most famous for the Erzberg Rodeo, a huge annual event where motorcycles drive up the iron ore mountain in the town.

Usually an SPÖ and KPÖ stronghold (in 2015: 53% SPÖ, 20% KPÖ) - it now voted for the ÖVP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2020, 09:10:44 AM
221/285 towns are counted (but that's only 57% of eligible voters).

The trends are the same:

ÖVP gaining 4.5%, FPÖ losing 5%, SPÖ losing 1%, Greens gaining 1%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2020, 09:28:05 AM
It will still be interesting to watch the final result and see if the FPÖ collapses, how much the ÖVP improves from an already high level and if the SPÖ stabilizes or falls again. I also expect gains for the Greens and small gains for the Communists.

The combined statewide results should be:

49% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
  8% FPÖ
  6% Greens
  2% KPÖ
  1% NEOS
  4% Indys

Damn, that prediction could be within 1% for each party.

If the current trend holds.

241/285 towns counted.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2020, 09:34:21 AM
In 2015, the FPÖ won a single town out of 285.

Today, they collapsed from 46.6% to 13.7% there ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2020, 10:08:09 AM
With 266/285 towns counted, the SPÖ is actually losing just 0.1% compared with 2015.

The party is doing better in bigger cities over 10.000 inhabitants and some of them are still left to count.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2020, 10:27:51 AM
Well, a revival of SPO in those circumstances would be nice......

It looks as if you were right.

The SPÖ will defintely improve compared with 2015 and finish ca. 1% higher.

Only 12/285 towns are remaining and most of them are the state's largest cities.

Currently, the SPÖ is 0.4% ahead of their 2015 results statewide.

That is good news for them when it comes to the Vienna election in October, because the big city results show that the huge FPÖ share from 2015 roughly goes to ÖVP/SPÖ 75-25.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2020, 11:56:46 AM
Only Leoben, the 2nd largest city behind the capital Graz, is left to report results.

I thought the final statewide result would be out by 9 or 10pm, because of the 200.000 postal and early votes, but it’s only 7pm ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: bigic on June 28, 2020, 01:28:02 PM
Result from the town of Eisenerz ("Iron Ore"):

:o :o :o

()

Eisenerz is something like Coal Country in WV.

The city once had 15.000 inhabitants in the 1950s, now just 3.800 anymore.

It has the highest share of people older than 65 in Austria, with a 45% share. (Young) people have abandoned the town after the iron ore mining boom ended.

Now, the town is most famous for the Erzberg Rodeo, a huge annual event where motorcycles drive up the iron ore mountain in the town.

Usually an SPÖ and KPÖ stronghold (in 2015: 53% SPÖ, 20% KPÖ) - it now voted for the ÖVP.
With which party will ÖVP form the ruling coalition there?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on June 28, 2020, 02:27:24 PM
Results



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2020, 11:41:36 AM
With which party will ÖVP form the ruling coalition there?

It wasn't mentioned anywhere, but I guess either ÖVP-SPÖ or ÖVP-FPÖ.

ÖVP-KPÖ is impossible.

Apparently, the ÖVP in Eisenerz had a convincing (and especially young) team in this election, winning over a lot of old (previously SPÖ and Communist-voting) people.

Here's a map of the results for each town:

()

Turquoise: ÖVP
Red: SPÖ
Beige: Independent lists
White: Graz

Too bad turnout dropped by more than 10%, but the 2015 municipal elections probably had higher than expected turnout, because the community mergers before that election were a hot, mobilizing topic. Before the 2015 elections, Styria had about 600 towns, that were merged into 286 in a big administrative reform. This, the non-competetive environment this time + Corona might explain the drop.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Styria municipal elections (June 28, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 01, 2020, 11:13:30 AM
Austria had ca. 464.000 registered unemployed as of yesterday.

That's ca. 139.000 more than at end of June last year, but ca. 125.000 fewer than at the peak in mid-April.

0.75 million employees are in "short-work", down from 1.35 million at the end of May.

The internationally comparable (ILO/Eurostat) unemployment rate, which always lags by a month, was 5.4% in May (up from 4.5% in May 2019).

https://orf.at/stories/3171844


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 05, 2020, 12:33:50 AM
New OGM/Kurier poll for the October 11 state election in Vienna:

38% SPÖ (-2%)
24% ÖVP (+15%)
17% Greens (+5%)
10% FPÖ (-21%)
  6% NEOS (n.c.)
  4% THC (+4%)
  1% Others (-1%)

Direct vote for mayor:

()

Preferred coalition after the election:

()

Turnout:

()

68% will definitely vote
12% will probably vote
11% will probably not vote
  7% will definitely not vote

Of those 68% definitely voting, 62% will vote in-person and 31% with their postal ballot.

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/umfrage-zur-wien-wahl-strache-ist-das-zuenglein-an-der-waage/400961984


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 06, 2020, 11:18:36 AM
The final 2019 demographic changes were released today by STATISTICS Austria + the preliminary 1 April, 2020 population:

Quote
Austrian population reached 8.901 million on 1 January 2020 – increase of 0.48% in 2019

Vienna, 2020-07-06 – 8.901.064 people lived in Austria on 1 January 2020, according to the final results of Statistics Austria. Compared to the beginning of 2019, this represents an increase of 42.289 inhabitants (+0.48%). Population growth thus was slightly higher than in the year before: In 2018, the Austrian population had increased by only 0.41% (+36.508 people). About 96% of Austria's population growth in 2019 was due to international migration gains of 40.613 people. However, natural population growth also contributed to the overall increase.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/123837.html

Quote
1.566 more births than deaths in 2019

Vienna, 2020-07-06 – In 2019, there were 84.952 births and 83.386 deaths in Austria, according to final results released by Statistics Austria. Thus, the excess of births over deaths amounted to +1.566 – a marginally higher natural population change than in 2018 (+1.560). Compared to the previous year, the number of births decreased by 583 (-0.7%) and the number of deaths declined by 589 (-0.7%). These figures also include 730 live births and 1.648 deaths of Austrian residents occurring abroad during 2019.

In 2019, 250 infants died during their first year of life. This translated into an infant mortality rate of 2.9‰.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/123793.html

Quote
Net Migration of 2019 (+40 613) 15% higher than in 2018

Vienna, 2020-07-06 – In 2019, Austria registered 150.419 immigrations and 109.806 emigrations, as Statistics Austria reports. This resulted in an international net-migration gain of 40.613 people, an increase of 15% compared to the previous year (2018: +35.301), but still below the results of all years between 2012 and 2017, where net migration fluctuated around +43.797 (2012) and +113.067 (2015). Continuing a longstanding trend, more Austrian citizens left the country than migrated back to Austria, translating into a migration loss of 4.343 people in 2019. At the same time, a migration gain of 44.956 foreign citizens was recorded in 2019; an increase of 12.3% against 2018 (+40.017).

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/123841.html

By 1 April, 2020 the population increased by 10.000 to 8.911.000 people.

Components of change, by state:

Link (http://www.statistik.at/web_en/statistics/PeopleSociety/population/population_stock_and_population_change/population_change_by_component/028626.html)

Population change in 2019, by district:

()

Natural change (births minus deaths) in 2019, by district:

()

Migration change in 2019, by district:

()

Population change in 2019, by town:

()

Natural change (births minus deaths) in 2019, by town:

()

Migration change in 2019, by town:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: President Johnson on July 06, 2020, 01:19:49 PM
FPÖ collapsing across the board? That's nice. I was actually surprised they had that many votes in Vienna last time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 07, 2020, 02:12:52 PM
FPÖ collapsing across the board? That's nice. I was actually surprised they had that many votes in Vienna last time.

Vienna voted a few weeks after the immigrant invasion from Syria etc. that was taking place in the fall of 2015. Plus, at the time Strache was seen as a competent campaigner and challenger against the worn-out SPÖVP machine. That’s why.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: rob in cal on July 07, 2020, 02:35:23 PM
  Tender, how would you evaluate the current Kurz OVP-Green coalition in terms of the OVP not bending too far in the direction of the Greens and protecting its right flank from losses to FPO.  Also, the Greens in terms of being perceived as enabling Kurz and the OVP and thus losing voters to the SPO.  Seems like a difficult balancing act for both parties to accomplish this over time.

 Also, how has the new govt been handling immigration and asylum cases compared with OVP/FPO.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 11, 2020, 01:14:24 AM
 Tender, how would you evaluate the current Kurz OVP-Green coalition in terms of the OVP not bending too far in the direction of the Greens and protecting its right flank from losses to FPO.  Also, the Greens in terms of being perceived as enabling Kurz and the OVP and thus losing voters to the SPO.  Seems like a difficult balancing act for both parties to accomplish this over time.

 Also, how has the new govt been handling immigration and asylum cases compared with OVP/FPO.

There were only a few policy proposals other than Corona-related ones in the past months, but ÖVP-Greens did a more or less competent job on those measures. They also passed a first income tax reduction package for employees which will take effect soon, but which is smaller than originally planned because the Corona aid is already worth 10% of GDP and driving up the deficit.

Other than that, the ÖVP seems to allow the Greens enough room for themselves and voted to adopt the nationwide 1-2-3 public transportation ticket starting next year. It allows people to purchase a 365€ ticket and use all forms of public transportation within 1 state.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 12, 2020, 12:06:12 AM
New Vienna poll (Research Affairs / Ö24):

()

The election calendar will start on Tuesday, which means small parties can start collecting signatures for the election to appear on the ballot. The deadline to submit them is in mid-August.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 14, 2020, 12:47:43 AM
Note that even THC (Strache’s party) has to collect the 2.950 signatures in the next month to be on the Oct. 11 Vienna ballot.

THC actually has 3 of 100 seats in the Vienna parliament, so usually they would not, but Vienna has a statute that says that only parties winning representation in the previous election can run again without collecting signatures.

Strache’s group only split from the FPÖ a few months ago, so they need to collect.

Should be no problem for them though.

There are some 20 small groups/parties who want to run, among them LEFT (which includes the KPÖ), the Pan-European VOLT, the Satire Party THE PARTY or the Beer Party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 14, 2020, 12:52:02 AM
Also, how has the new govt been handling immigration and asylum cases compared with OVP/FPO.

This has not been a topic at all in the last half year + asylum numbers have dropped to record-lows as well.

Asylum seekers with their claims rejected are still being deported though.

Business as usual.

https://www.dw.com/en/afghanistan-refugees-austria/a-54122207


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 16, 2020, 03:02:21 AM
The final 2019 demographic changes were released today by STATISTICS Austria + the preliminary 1 April, 2020 population:

More demographical data was released today:

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/123903.html

In 2019, there were 46.034 marriages (among them 997 gay marriages, 2.2% of the total).

There were also 1.269 civil unions, among them 1.135 hetero and 134 gay civil unions.

Marriages decreased by 0.9% compared to 2018, but civil unions increased by 174%.

...

In the 1st quarter of 2020, there were 19.953 births (-1.6%) and 22.942 deaths (+1.4%), but the changes varied a lot by state: for example Tyrol was the only state that had both an increase in births and a decrease in deaths compared with a year earlier.

My district had 7% more births and 8% fewer deaths than in the 1st quarter of 2019.

Anyway, COVID has absolutely no effect on the overall death rate here.

Link (http://www.statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/geborene/123896.html)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 18, 2020, 03:46:04 AM
New "Profil" magazine poll:

()

ÖVP-Greens job approval rating:

75% approve (-2 compared with June)

Quote
Methode: Telefonisch und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample:n=801 Befragte, Feldarbeit: 13. bis 16. Juli 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-regierung-buesst-an-zustimmung-ein/400975088


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on July 18, 2020, 04:47:44 AM
Looks like the OVP's "virus bump" is easing, then.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 18, 2020, 05:57:39 AM
Looks like the OVP's "virus bump" is easing, then.

No surprise.

I also expect that they will do worse in the Vienna election relative to current polling.

I think the SPÖ will win a big victory, with 40-45%.

The ÖVP around 20% (but 4-5% below their current polling).

The Greens also slightly less than their current polling: 14-15%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 18, 2020, 11:23:48 AM
New Vienna poll by OGM for the "Krone" newspaper (July 13-16, n=801):

38% SPÖ (-1.6%)
23% ÖVP (+13.8%)
17% Greens (+5.2%)
10% FPÖ (-20.8%)
  7% NEOS (+0.8%)
  4% THC (+4.0%)
  1% Others (-1.4%)

https://www.ogm.at/sonntagsfrage/ogm-sonntagsfrage-wiener-gemeinderatswahlen-juli-2020


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 19, 2020, 01:01:06 AM
()

Vienna turnout projected at 68%, down from a high 75% in 2015.

But 2015 saw higher-than-average turnout because there was a horserace for 1st place and because the immigrant invasion draw people to the polls.

https://www.krone.at/2194491


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: crals on July 19, 2020, 09:41:31 AM
What would it take for the Greens to switch sides in Vienna and form a coalition with OVP and NEOS instead? The Governorship?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 19, 2020, 10:23:28 AM
New Vienna poll by OGM for the "Krone" newspaper (July 13-16, n=801):

38% SPÖ (-1.6%)
23% ÖVP (+13.8%)
17% Greens (+5.2%)
10% FPÖ (-20.8%)
  7% NEOS (+0.8%)
  4% THC (+4.0%)
  1% Others (-1.4%)

https://www.ogm.at/sonntagsfrage/ogm-sonntagsfrage-wiener-gemeinderatswahlen-juli-2020

What would it take for the Greens to switch sides in Vienna and form a coalition with OVP and NEOS instead? The Governorship?

The SPÖ-Vienna frequently uses the possibility (or threat) of a ÖVP-Green-NEOS majority as a tool to mobilize their voters during the coming campaign.

But the Greens have already kinda announced that they would not enter such a coalition if the SPÖ wins big.

I think they and their voters are much more comfortable to continue governing together with the SPÖ, rather than enter an untested Dirndl or Watermelon coalition ...

It’s also what voters prefer as coalition option by a huge margin.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 23, 2020, 02:55:13 PM
Could Strache be prohibited from taking part in the Vienna election on Oct. 11 ?

The small, leftist party "Wandel" (Change) has filed charges against Strache in Vienna and Lower Austria for violating the residency law.

Strache is registered as living in a secondary residence with his wife and child in Klosterneuburg, a suburb just outside Vienna - which is located in the state of Lower Austria.

Strache's main residence is registered in Vienna.

The Vienna election law says that you have to be 18 and need to have your main residence in Vienna on election day, to run as a candidate in the state election.

The "Change" party calls Strache an "illegal immigrant to Vienna, trying to sneak into parliamentary immunity" by "having been unemployed for the past year and spending most of his time at his Klosterneuburg home."

Therefore, his Klosterneuburg residence is in fact his main residence and Vienna only his 2nd residence.

It will be interesting to see how the Vienna and Lower Austria authorities react to the complaints filed today by "Change".

For example, Vienna could retain his main residence in Vienna.

Or they could demand proof that Strache spends at least 12 hours per day in Vienna (which is currently indeed problematic for him to prove).

On the other hand, he's currently campaigning a lot in the city and his party headquarters are located there, so he could have a point.

Still pretty funny if Vienna revokes his main residence before the election ... :P

https://www.krone.at/2197576


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 23, 2020, 03:06:01 PM
Could Strache be prohibited from taking part in the Vienna election on Oct. 11 ?

Meanwhile, FPÖ vs. Strache is also fun to watch:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/blau-gegen-blau-das-ist-brutalitaet-fpoe-an-strache-stell-dich-mit-der-justizwache-gut/438843551

After the FPÖ launched a campaign to defend the work of police (officers), Strache did the same.

(After the George Floyd protests, our police also came under some attack for previous abuses against (black) people).

The FPÖ then advised Strache to make friends with prison guards, because he might soon see them quite often ... :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 25, 2020, 12:02:18 AM
Could Strache be prohibited from taking part in the Vienna election on Oct. 11 ?

The "Kurier" reports that 50-year old Strache is still registered with his main residence at the apartment of his mother in Vienna's 3rd district.

So far, so LOL.

But last year, as part of the Ibiza criminal investigation, police officers came to his mother's apartment to raid it.

His mother told the authorities that "her son doesn't live here since 19 years and there are no things belonging to him in her apartment and he just occasionally comes to visit her."

That would suggest that Strache only uses his Vienna address as a fake main residence, while living for most of the time in Lower Austria, which should in fact be his main residence.

Strache now has a week to send proof to the Vienna election authorities that his main residence on July 14th (election calendar started to run) was indeed in Vienna.

A ruling will come in August.

The Vienna-SPÖ would actually have an interest in keeping Strache on the ballot, because it would split the FPÖ in half and if he manages to cross the 5% threshold, it would make a ÖVP-Green-NEOS coalition against the SPÖ more unlikely.

On the other hand it would be a terrible sign if you can run in an election with a fake residence and also a bad image for Austria if Strache were able to get into the Vienna parliament after screwing up on Ibiza ...

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/strache-muss-jetzt-beweisen-dass-er-ein-echter-wiener-ist/400981430


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 25, 2020, 12:45:54 AM
Vienna:

The preliminary number of people eligible to vote has been released yesterday.

State election: 1.133.011
District elections: 1.362.795 (this number is higher, because EU-citizens can vote as well)

The number of eligible voters has decreased by 10.000 for the state election compared to 2015, but increased by 40.000 for the district elections.

That's because the number of Austrian citizens declines every year, while EU-immigration to Vienna remains high.

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2020/07/24/wien-wahl-2020-vorlaeufige-anzahl-der-wahlberechtigten


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 25, 2020, 12:01:09 PM
Could Strache be prohibited from taking part in the Vienna election on Oct. 11 ?

A speaker for the Strache Party says they are not afraid of the charges:

Quote
Team HC Strache: "Media hype without substance"

Höbart rejected on Saturday that Strache did not have his center of life in Vienna: "The daily allegations without content and attempts to attack HC Strache are such a transparent spectacle that drives many voters into our arms."

The attempt "to prevent HC Strache's candidacy on October 11 with a staged residence scandal" will "go nowhere." It was "once again a media hype without any substance".

With Strache's planned presentation next week, "this media-staged matter" will be resolved in a few days - "especially since, for example, the declaration of support submitted by HC Strache as Viennese has already been officially confirmed by the municipal district office," said Höbart.

Strache's mother has been in a nursing home since March

Regarding the apartment concerned, the ex-FPÖ politician explained that Strache has now taken it fully over: "Unfortunately, HC Strache's beloved mother had to go to a nursing home in March 2020 and he has at that time - before the end of the main registration period on July 14, 2020 - said apartment fully taken over and uses it.

Before that, there were other apartments in Vienna that served him as residences, primarily for security reasons.

“His center of life, whether as party chairman or as vice chancellor, has been Vienna for the past 15 years and still is. No matter whether it is political, social or private, ”says Höbart.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3059487


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 28, 2020, 01:33:57 PM
Could Strache be prohibited from taking part in the Vienna election on Oct. 11 ?

Vienna's MA62 (election and civil registration office) has received another complaint about Strache's "main" residence in Vienna.

Now including the recent media revelations (I posted the remarks of Strache's mother above).

()

Meanwhile, Strache has deleted all pictures on Social Media from his Lower Austria villa where he lives basically all the time with his wife and child.

At the same time, he posted new pictures showing him next to his "neighbours" in his fake Vienna alibi apartment.

What an idiot.

The FPÖ has announced they will challenge the Vienna state election at the Constitutional Court, if the MA62 allows Strache to run with his fake main residence in Vienna.

It should be noted that ahead of each election, the MA62 routinely checks all party candidates who are listed as running for the election if they have their main residence in Vienna.

Based on this fact alone, Strache would be allowed to run in the election - but his case is much more complicated, because all the indications are that he lives in Lower Austria most of the time and complaints have been filed with the MA62 ...

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3059803


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: PSOL on July 28, 2020, 10:21:03 PM
Note that even THC (Strache’s party) has to collect the 2.950 signatures in the next month to be on the Oct. 11 Vienna ballot.

THC actually has 3 of 100 seats in the Vienna parliament, so usually they would not, but Vienna has a statute that says that only parties winning representation in the previous election can run again without collecting signatures.

Strache’s group only split from the FPÖ a few months ago, so they need to collect.

Should be no problem for them though.

There are some 20 small groups/parties who want to run, among them LEFT (which includes the KPÖ), the Pan-European VOLT, the Satire Party THE PARTY or the Beer Party.
What other parties are apart of this LEFT group?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 28, 2020, 11:15:33 PM
Note that even THC (Strache’s party) has to collect the 2.950 signatures in the next month to be on the Oct. 11 Vienna ballot.

THC actually has 3 of 100 seats in the Vienna parliament, so usually they would not, but Vienna has a statute that says that only parties winning representation in the previous election can run again without collecting signatures.

Strache’s group only split from the FPÖ a few months ago, so they need to collect.

Should be no problem for them though.

There are some 20 small groups/parties who want to run, among them LEFT (which includes the KPÖ), the Pan-European VOLT, the Satire Party THE PARTY or the Beer Party.
What other parties are a part of this LEFT group?

Basically just the KPÖ as a party is part of LEFT.

It also includes independent people such as journalists, migrants, NGO people, refugee workers etc.

Their frontrunner is Anna Svec:

()

https://links-wien.at/kandidatinnen/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 31, 2020, 07:36:12 AM
OGM poll:

83% of Vienna voters are against re-naming the several "Blackamoor Alleys" in Vienna (or in German, Mohrengasse).

Only a handful think they should be re-named, because they might be somehow racist.

https://www.krone.at/2198868


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 04, 2020, 11:13:07 PM
The MA62 election commission of Vienna (which is also responsible for civil registration matters) will make a decision about Strache in 2 weeks, August 19.

That doesn’t just apply for Strache, but all voters:

People who think they are eligible to vote now have about 2 weeks to check if they are listed as voters or not. If not, they can demand being included in the voter list. There are only a handful of such cases each election, because of the automatic voter registration here.

On the other side, citizens can also demand people to be excluded from the voter list if there’s credible evidence that this person doesn’t have their main residence in Vienna (which is the case with Strache).

After the ruling on Aug. 19th, Strache has 2 days to respond or to file a complaint, after which the Vienna Administrative Court will make a quick final ruling so that the voter list and ballots can be finalized.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119155590/wandel-will-streichung-straches-aus-waehlerverzeichnis


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 06, 2020, 10:48:21 AM
Could Strache be prohibited from taking part in the Vienna election on Oct. 11 ?

Strache announced today that his party, THC, has collected more than the 2.950 necessary signatures from eligible voters to run in the Vienna election.

They collected about 110% of the necessary amount to be sure (contrary to the US, in Austria only a very small amount of signatures are thrown out because they are invalid, mostly because people are already registered to vote automatically and have to sign the petition of a party in the municipal offices, checked and stamped by a city clerk).

So, theoretically Strache and his THC could run in the election.

Pending the decision from the MA62 about his main residence in the city of course ...

In 2 weeks, we’ll know more.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-strache-hat-die-noetigen-unterschriften-zusammen/6699116


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 06, 2020, 11:15:35 PM
New Vienna poll (Ö24/Research Affairs):

78% of Vienna voters say Strache does NOT have his main residence in Vienna any longer and 75% say he should be banned from running in the election.

4% would currently vote for Strache, which is below the 5% threshold to enter city parliament.

()

New Austria poll (Ö24/Research Affairs):

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2020, 07:56:55 AM
Good to see the Ludwig-SPÖ in Vienna caring about the working-class folk again which will win back FPÖ-voters.

New SPÖ election posters:

"Creating jobs."

()

"Every job/workplace is important. That's why we are fighting for every single one."

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2020, 04:46:18 PM
With ca. 1 week remaining for small parties to collect 2.950 signatures, it looks as if 3 parties (in addition to the 5 parliamentary parties) will run Vienna-wide:

* SPÖ (center-left)
* FPÖ (far-right)
* ÖVP (center-right)
* Greens (left)
* NEOS (centrist)

* THC (far-right, has enough signatures already)
* LINKS (left, only a few signatures missing)
* SÖZ (left, only a few signatures missing)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119224849/strache-hat-genuegend-unterschriften-fuer-antreten

There might be a few other small parties that are making the cut in a few districts only, so no citywide candidacy for them.

SÖZ ("Social Austria of the Future") is a left-wing, migrant party and former List Pilz MP Martha Bissmann is their frontrunner.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 10, 2020, 01:26:20 PM
Good to see the Ludwig-SPÖ in Vienna caring about the working-class folk again which will win back FPÖ-voters.

New SPÖ election posters:

"Creating jobs."

()


Smh chasing the gay vote


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 11, 2020, 01:58:01 PM
LINKS (Left) announced today they have collected all necessary signatures to be on the Oct. 11 ballot in Vienna.

2.950 signatures were needed, they got more than 5.500. But there are individual thresholds to be met in each of the 23 districts and electoral districts, that’s why it took until today for the last district to be completed.




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 13, 2020, 10:51:34 AM
Christina Kohl, candidate for H.C. Strache’s new party in Vienna, has been fired by her employer - the airline AUA - after anti-Semitic comments at a Vienna demo:

()

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119345305/team-strache-kandidatin-wegen-antisemitischem-demo-sager-gekuendigt

Kohl shouted „Soros has to go, Rothschild has to go, Antifa has to go.“ at an Anti-Coronavirus measures demo.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 13, 2020, 11:19:11 PM
Today is the deadline for small parties to submit the 2.950 signatures necessary for the Oct. 11 Vienna state election.

The city will probably announce which parties have submitted enough signatures for which districts after 5pm.

Vienna has 23 districts, which are distributed to 18 electoral districts for the state election (100 signatures are needed for a candidacy in one of them).

So 1.800 in total for the state election.

For the district elections on the same day, 50 signatures are needed in the 23 districts - so 1.150 in total.

If a party wants to run in all 18 electoral districts for the state election and in all 23 districts for the district elections, 2.950 signatures in total are needed.

It looks like THC, Links and SÖZ are meeting this requirement and maybe a few others like the satire Beer Party or the pan-European VOLT in a few electoral districts only.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: bigic on August 14, 2020, 03:51:36 AM
Christina Kohl, candidate for H.C. Strache’s new party in Vienna, has been fired by her employer - the airline AUA - after anti-Semitic comments at a Vienna demo:

()

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119345305/team-strache-kandidatin-wegen-antisemitischem-demo-sager-gekuendigt

Kohl shouted „Soros has to go, Rothschild has to go, Antifa has to go.“ at an Anti-Coronavirus measures demo.

Seems like cancel culture has also infected Austria, which is shameful! /s


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 14, 2020, 07:38:42 AM
Soros *and* Rothschild? Truly we were being spoiled here :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2020, 07:48:04 AM
Soros *and* Rothschild? Truly we were being spoiled here :P

She also shouted „Rockefeller has to leave“ at the demo.



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2020, 08:43:04 AM
Today is the deadline for small parties to submit the 2.950 signatures necessary for the Oct. 11 Vienna state election.

The city will probably announce which parties have submitted enough signatures for which districts after 5pm.

According to their own press statement, the „Beer Party“ has collected enough signatures to be on the ballot city-wide.

()

That’s a significant achievement for a satire/joke party that originated from a band called Turbobier.

They also ran Austria-wide in the federal election last year and received 0.1% or 1 per mille (alcohol content).

In Vienna, they got 6 Promille (0.6%), claiming to be the „tightest“ party ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2020, 10:06:56 AM
Today is the deadline for small parties to submit the 2.950 signatures necessary for the Oct. 11 Vienna state election.

The city will probably announce which parties have submitted enough signatures for which districts after 5pm.

Here is the list of those who made it:

CITY-WIDE

SPÖ - Bürgermeister Dr. Michael Ludwig
FPÖ - Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs
GRÜNE - Die Grünen / Grüne Alternative Wien
ÖVP - Die neue Volkspartei Wien
NEOS - Erneuerung für Wien
HC - Team HC Strache / Allianz für Österreich
LINKS / KPÖ
BIER - Die Bierpartei
SÖZ - Soziales Österreich der Zukunft

Only in a few districts

VOLT - Volt Österreich (electoral districts of Center + Inner West)
WIFF - Wir für Floridsdorf (electoral district of Floridsdorf)
PRO - Pro23: Liste Ernst Paleta – für ein lebenswertes Liesing! (electoral district of Liesing)

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2020/08/14/wien-wahl-2020-wahlvorschlaege-wurden-eingebracht


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2020, 10:20:04 AM
Here's what will happen next:

* on August 19, Vienna's MA62 will decide about the Strache residency case.
* Strache then has 2 days to file a formal complaint, if they ban him from running.
* Then the Vienna Administrative Court has 5 days to decide on such a complaint.
* on August 28, the Vienna election commission will meet and annouce all qualified parties/candidates
* in the first week of September, the ballots will be printed
* the ballots will then go out to postal voters in the second week of September, meaning that voters can start voting ca. 1 month ahead of the election

It is expected that ca. 30-50% of all voters will be postal votes this time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 17, 2020, 03:02:47 PM
Could Strache be prohibited from taking part in the Vienna election on Oct. 11 ?

Vienna's 3rd district election commission has decided in a 6-3 vote that H.C. Strache is allowed to run in the Oct. 11 Vienna state election and that he has his main residency in the district and not in Klosterneuburg, Lower Austria.

It is expected that Vienna's main election commission will now also OK the district decision and it will go to the Vienna administrative court.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119415668/behoerde-entscheidet-strache-darf-in-wien-kandidieren

Very bad decision in my opinion.

Strache clearly does NOT have his main residence in Vienna. But it seems the SPÖ and the other parties in the district election commission see a Strache candidacy as a good chance to take votes away from the FPÖ. Which is of course true. But you cannot allow someone like Strache to run, just to hurt another party if it's pretty clear that he's no longer a resident of Vienna.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 18, 2020, 11:56:59 AM
Could Strache be prohibited from taking part in the Vienna election on Oct. 11 ?

Vienna's 3rd district election commission has decided in a 6-3 vote that H.C. Strache is allowed to run in the Oct. 11 Vienna state election and that he has his main residency in the district and not in Klosterneuburg, Lower Austria.

It is expected that Vienna's main election commission will now also OK the district decision and it will go to the Vienna administrative court.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119415668/behoerde-entscheidet-strache-darf-in-wien-kandidieren

Very bad decision in my opinion.

Strache clearly does NOT have his main residence in Vienna. But it seems the SPÖ and the other parties in the district election commission see a Strache candidacy as a good chance to take votes away from the FPÖ. Which is of course true. But you cannot allow someone like Strache to run, just to hurt another party if it's pretty clear that he's no longer a resident of Vienna.

The 6-3 vote in favour of Strache was 4x SPÖ, 1x Greens and 1x ÖVP in favour and 3x FPÖ against.

The 9 members of the district election commission where Strache was granted his main residence is made up of all parties, roughly representing the last district election result from 2015.

According to the Commission there, they have investigated all possible facts (they interviewed Strache personally, neighbours, etc.) and came to the conclusion that "while Strache might have lived for a longer period in Lower Austria with his wife and child after his marriage, he still has his main residence in Vienna-03."

The small leftist party Wandel (Change) has told the "Standard" they will appeal the ruling of the Landstraße election commission at the Vienna Administrative Court soon. The Court then has 5 days starting after receipt of the complaint to issue a ruling.

Meanwhile, the FPÖ (party leader Hofer) said that they will accept whatever ruling Vienna or the Court there will issue and that they will not challenge the Vienna state election in Court over Strache's residency issue like they did after the 2016 Presidential election. They expect the small leftist party Wandel to challenge the election in court anyway if Strache is given the green light by the Vienna court too.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119438277/wieso-der-wahl-wiener-bei-der-wien-wahl-kandidieren-kann


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 20, 2020, 02:31:10 PM
Could Strache be prohibited from taking part in the Vienna election on Oct. 11 ?

Vienna's 3rd district election commission has decided in a 6-3 vote that H.C. Strache is allowed to run in the Oct. 11 Vienna state election and that he has his main residency in the district and not in Klosterneuburg, Lower Austria.

It is expected that Vienna's main election commission will now also OK the district decision and it will go to the Vienna administrative court.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119415668/behoerde-entscheidet-strache-darf-in-wien-kandidieren

Very bad decision in my opinion.

Strache clearly does NOT have his main residence in Vienna. But it seems the SPÖ and the other parties in the district election commission see a Strache candidacy as a good chance to take votes away from the FPÖ. Which is of course true. But you cannot allow someone like Strache to run, just to hurt another party if it's pretty clear that he's no longer a resident of Vienna.

The 6-3 vote in favour of Strache was 4x SPÖ, 1x Greens and 1x ÖVP in favour and 3x FPÖ against.

The 9 members of the district election commission where Strache was granted his main residence is made up of all parties, roughly representing the last district election result from 2015.

According to the Commission there, they have investigated all possible facts (they interviewed Strache personally, neighbours, etc.) and came to the conclusion that "while Strache might have lived for a longer period in Lower Austria with his wife and child after his marriage, he still has his main residence in Vienna-03."

The small leftist party Wandel (Change) has told the "Standard" they will appeal the ruling of the Landstraße election commission at the Vienna Administrative Court soon. The Court then has 5 days starting after receipt of the complaint to issue a ruling.

Meanwhile, the FPÖ (party leader Hofer) said that they will accept whatever ruling Vienna or the Court there will issue and that they will not challenge the Vienna state election in Court over Strache's residency issue like they did after the 2016 Presidential election. They expect the small leftist party Wandel to challenge the election in court anyway if Strache is given the green light by the Vienna court too.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119438277/wieso-der-wahl-wiener-bei-der-wien-wahl-kandidieren-kann

There were actually 2 appeals filed against Strache at the Vienna Administrative Court.

One of the cases was decided a few hours ago, in favour of Strache.

The Court upheld the decision of Vienna’s 3rd district election commission which allowed Strache to run.

The second challenge will be decided tomorrow.

If this also results in favour of Strache, he has cleared all hurdles and the election can only be challenged after it was held at the Austrian Constitutionial Court.

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/strache-wohnsitz-gericht-gibt-bezirkswahlbehoerde-recht/401006309


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 21, 2020, 11:59:15 AM
Strache officially on the ballot:

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3063364

The Vienna Administrative Court has just ruled in favour of Strache in the 2nd appeals case.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 22, 2020, 12:33:43 AM
Interesting development:

Liberal NEOS-leader of Vienna, Christoph Wiederkehr, has announced he's open to a coalition with the SPÖ, but ruled out a coalition with the ÖVP.

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/neos-spitzenkandidat-wiederkehr-zu-koalition-mit-spoe-bereit/401006888

Wiederkehr is a political newcomer with very low name-recognition, so his strategy is a bit tricky.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 22, 2020, 07:21:35 AM
STATISTICS Austria released demographic data for the first half of 2020:

Births decreased by 1.5% compared to Jan-June 2019.

Deaths increased by 0.5% compared to Jan-June 2019.

Link, by month (http://statistik.at/wcm/idc/idcplg?IdcService=GET_NATIVE_FILE&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased&dDocName=027679)

Link, by state and district (http://statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/geborene/123896.html)

Without the 700 COVID-deaths in the first half of 2020, the overal number of deaths would have gone down by 1.5% as well, just like births.

The Austrian population increased by 14.000 in the first half of 2020, which was ca. the same amount as in the first half of 2019 when it increased by 13.600 people.

Link (quarterly population) (http://statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/bevoelkerungsstand_und_veraenderung/bevoelkerung_zu_jahres-_quartalsanfang/023582.html)

Surprisingly, the population growth in Q2 - during the lockdown - did not result in lower population growth ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 23, 2020, 02:29:01 AM
New Vienna poll by OGM for the "Krone" newspaper (Aug. 18-20):

()

Very stable picture, but this month turnout is projected at 72% - up from 68% in their July poll - but down from the pretty high 75% during the polarizing 2015 election.

Still, 72% would be much higher than the 60-70% turnouts before the 2015 election - which brought many additional left-wingers and migration-critical right-wingers to the polls.

The SPÖ has risen from 36% in an early-March poll to 39% now (and I expect them to get 40-45% eventually), while the ÖVP has lost 4% since early March.

The FPÖ seems to be consolidating support as well, reaching 10%+ in several polls now, at the expense of ÖVP and THC.

I think the ÖVP will actually struggle to get past the 20% mark in the election (the City-ÖVP is very weak and Blümel is not the best candidate). The Greens could also be too high with 16%. I think 14-15% is more likely.

Strache is the big unknown: now that he's officially on the ballot, he has already started to portray himself as a victim of the media and corrupt elites who want to "take him out". 15% of voters in Vienna still say that Strache is "potentially electable" for them after all that happened, but I don't think he'll get much more than 3-5% in the end.

https://www.krone.at/2215907


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2020, 07:53:52 AM
The Vienna-FPÖ is out with their first poster wave (ca. 5.000 all over the city):

()

()

Party leader Nepp is focusing on non-immigrant Austrians („our home“ + our Vienna“) and contrasts it with radical Islam & Turkish flags and how Red-Green-ÖVP supports these negative developments.

Also notice how the fully-veiled Muslims look at the crescent-shaped St. Stephans Cathedral out of the window and at a picture on the wall titled „home, sweet home.“


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2020, 08:07:06 AM
The Vienna election commission has given the green light yesterday to all 12 parties that submitted enough signatures for the Oct. 11 state election.

9 of them will appear on the ballot citywide.

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2020/08/27/wien-wahl-2020-neun-listen-kandidieren-wienweit-fuer-den-gemeinderat

The (postal) ballots can be printed next week now and then sent to voters.

It is expected that a record-high 40-50% of voters will cast their vote by post.

The conservative ÖVP is actively advertising postal voting this year, calling it the „safest way to vote“ in this environment. NEOS is annoyed by the ÖVP calling voters to use postal votes this time, ignoring that they did the same ahead of the 2015 election.

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/aerger-um-oevp-anrufe-bei-waehlern/401008484

The city will also establish mobile election commissions for the ca. 3.000 people in Coronavirus quarantine so they can vote as well. These mobile commissions previously were set up for old people unable to leave their homes and people in need of care.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2020, 12:57:30 PM
Chancellor Sebastian Kurz delivered a State of the Nation address today:

Chancellor Kurz: "There is light at the end of the tunnel"

()
Chancellor Kurz hold a speech today to the nation about the current situation.
Picture: © Bundeskanzleramt (BKA) / Dragan Tatic


Quote
Today, Chancellor Kurz was holding a State of the Union Address and talked about the Coronavirus, special vacation for parents and a "pact against isolation". According to him, the next summer will be normal again. However, the time until then will be challenging.

First, Kurz talked about the year 2020 and that it was very challenging for all citizen. However, "there is light at the end of the tunnel" says Kurz and that the crisis will last shorter than many experts believed at the beginning.

He is thus referring to national and international health researchers and experts as laboratories are researching intensively for a vaccine, new testing methods and treatments. This should lead to a normal summer 2021 as we used to know it.

Now it is very important to reserve enough vaccine to vaccinate everyone who wants to. The vaccine will only be authorised when it has been tested properly. Moreover, Kurz reaffirms that there will not be any compulsory vaccination in Austria.

Today, scientists have a way greater knowledge about the virus, and it is known that COVID-19 already mutated. If this leads to a milder progression in general is not known yet.

Nevertheless, what is already known is where clusters are mostly formatted and for whom the virus is more dangerous.

With this knowledge, Kurz says it is also clear that the upcoming months are getting difficult. It is getting colder again, and schools are starting in September with many people indoor. It is will be difficult to distinguish between a normal flue and the Coronavirus.

The chancellor further puts in view that with decreasing numbers of infections the restrictions will be eased. "As much freedom as necessary and as much restriction as necessary." he says.

He appeals to all Austrian to stick to all regulations and to stay disciplined until the pandemic is over.

"We are now also facing a global economic crisis that we have not experienced on this scale for a long time." Austria will not be spared from the crisis as the economy will collapse by seven percent this year.

The government will now concentrate on easing new business foundations to create as many jobs as possible. A work foundation will be founded in order to bring more jobs in the healthcare industry closer to job seekers. Additionally, about an improved legal basis for the home office will be discussed with the Social Partners.

Kurz further addressed the difficulty for parents when their children are sent home for digital schooling. Therefore, it will be again possible to take a three weeks special vacation to support and care taking of children at home. He also mentioned that a new technical university will be built in Linz, Upper Austria.

In order to support Austrian companies and farmers, the public sector will buy from now on mostly regional products for canteens. If 20% of the products are bought regionally 46,000 workplaces can be created, calculated Kurz.

Finally, he addressed the problem of isolation which occurred for many people, mostly old people, in the last few months. Therefore, the government will be working on a "pact against isolation" to provide an "aging with dignity".

Link (https://www.vindobona.org/article/chancellor-kurz-there-is-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2020, 12:19:54 AM
()

Tourism in Austria, by month.

Before the lockdown, Jan. + Feb. had increases compared to 2019.

Then the big crash.

In July, the situation was improving - with 3 states (Styria, Burgenland and Carinthia) even having more guests than in July 2019.

Still, Austria-wide there was a 17% decline (Vienna: -50%) and in the tourism-heavy states Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg between minus 10-15%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2020, 09:28:01 AM
H.C. Strache also formally started his Vienna campaign today with an event where almost nobody wore a mask ("We need to learn to live with the virus."):

()

()

Strache also considers himself rehabilitated from the "Ibiza"-video scandal, said he's "the Original" in reference to his former party FPÖ and called for higher minimum pensions.

He also attacked the FPÖ + the Red/Green city government and the ÖVP on immigration and the rules against Covid.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119667142/strache-gegen-einwanderer-fpoe-und-corona-massnahmen


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 29, 2020, 10:22:56 AM
Isn't wearing masks part of "learning to live with the virus"?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2020, 12:52:43 PM
Isn't wearing masks part of "learning to live with the virus"?

Not for far-right-wingers.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: bigic on August 29, 2020, 06:54:33 PM
The Vienna-FPÖ is out with their first poster wave (ca. 5.000 all over the city):

()


"Radikaler" is with really tiny letters (like it doesn't exist) compared to "Islam"...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2020, 11:42:25 PM
The Vienna-FPÖ is out with their first poster wave (ca. 5.000 all over the city):

()


"Radikaler" is with really tiny letters (like it doesn't exist) compared to "Islam"...

Yes, it’s all about visuals: if you see the poster on the street, it’s about associating SPÖ+Greens+ÖVP as supporters of radical Islam.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2020, 11:58:59 AM
The „election booth“ for Vienna is now online:

https://wahlkabine.at/landtagswahl-wien-2020/wahlkabine/1

You can answer 25 questions to see which party you are closest to.

You can also rank every question as important or not on a 0-10 scale below yes, no, undecided.

I got the Greens, closely followed by the Beer Party, Left, SÖZ, SPÖ and NEOS.

The FPÖ was last, slightly ahead of the ÖVP and Strache.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 31, 2020, 12:51:46 PM
My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 01, 2020, 12:33:00 PM
Despite Coronavirus and an expected postal ballot record of 40% of all votes cast, Vienna will not cut the number of precincts on Election Day (as seen in many US cities).

There were 1.499 precincts on Election Day 2015 and there will be 1.494 precincts on Oct. 11

The final number of eligible voters is also out:

1.133.010 (state election)
1.362.789 (district elections) - higher because EU citizens can vote as well

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2020/08/31/wien-wahl-2020-1-494-wahllokale-fuer-1-362-789-waehlerinnen

Full slate of candidates for the election:

https://www.wien.gv.at/politik/wahlen/grbv/pdf/kundmachung-stadtwahlvorschlag.pdf


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 02, 2020, 12:56:56 PM
2 left-wing parties, the Greens and LINKS, have revealed their first campaign posters today:

The Vienna-Green Party posters feature the popular Austrian Health Minister Anschober, who used to be roughly as popular as Chancellor Kurz in recent months.





LINKS:





... focuses on underpaid women (1.950€ minimum wage), a rich-tax and liveable subsidized apartments.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2020, 02:35:09 PM
Liberal NEOS out with their first posters in Vienna:

()

And the ÖVP as well:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2020, 02:42:23 PM
Ballots for the Vienna election will go into print next week and start being delivered to postal voters on September 14th, which is 4 weeks ahead of the election.

Contrary to the US, the 300.000 to 400.000 postal voters in the city don’t need to worry about postal delays. They can request a ballot until the Friday before election Sunday and the Post will empty all postal boxes the Saturday before election Sunday.

So, only incredibly stupid people who drop off their postal votes on Saturday afternoon at a post box will likely see their ballots returned on Monday, which is too late.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: ConservativeElector on September 03, 2020, 04:13:01 PM
My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

I like your result. I am a registered ÖVP member as well.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: PSOL on September 03, 2020, 04:30:25 PM
Links 248
Green 228
Söz 193
Beer 103
Neos 88
SPO 25
HC -203
Ovp -273
FPÖ-303

Yeah, I definitely see it


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2020, 11:34:31 PM
My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

I like your result. I am a registered ÖVP member as well.

What are your thoughts on the election ?

I assume you are a voter in Wien ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 04, 2020, 08:39:00 AM
My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2020, 11:03:04 AM
For the first time in years, the Vienna-SPÖ hits 40% in the new Ö24 poll out today:

40% SPÖ
21% ÖVP
13% Greens
12% FPÖ
7% NEOS
5% THC
2% Others

The 40% is also exactly what the party got in 2015.

12% is also the FPÖ's best poll result this year.

Compared to their January poll, the SPÖ has gained 8%, while the Greens lost 4%, NEOS 3% and "others" 1%. ÖVP, FPÖ and Strache all remained stable.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtags-_und_Gemeinderatswahl_in_Wien_2020#Umfragen


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 04, 2020, 11:30:33 AM
My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.

Neither did I, to be honest. Maybe because I support opening shops on Sunday, supported the ban on begging, or support the access of financial documents of state supported associations, maybe putted me more on the right part of the scale. Maybe, don't know.

Curiously, in Portuguese election quizzes, my results, more often than not, point to the PS rather than the party I actually vote.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2020, 02:06:03 PM
This was just released.

Everything you need to know about Vienna:

https://www.wien.gv.at/statistik/pdf/viennainfigures-2020.pdf

https://www.wien.gv.at/statistik/pdf/viennainfigures-poster-2020.pdf


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2020, 02:13:06 PM
My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.

Neither did I, to be honest. Maybe because I support opening shops on Sunday, supported the ban on begging, or support the access of financial documents of state supported associations, maybe putted me more on the right part of the scale. Maybe, don't know.

Curiously, in Portuguese election quizzes, my results, more often than not, point to the PS rather than the party I actually vote.

Ughhh, you support opening shops on Sunday ?

Sunday opening destroys family life, as most cashiers are women who want Sunday to be home with the rest of the family.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 04, 2020, 02:53:32 PM
My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.

Neither did I, to be honest. Maybe because I support opening shops on Sunday, supported the ban on begging, or support the access of financial documents of state supported associations, maybe putted me more on the right part of the scale. Maybe, don't know.

Curiously, in Portuguese election quizzes, my results, more often than not, point to the PS rather than the party I actually vote.

Ughhh, you support opening shops on Sunday ?

Sunday opening destroys family life, as most cashiers are women who want Sunday to be home with the rest of the family.

Yeah, but on Sunday everybody has more time to go out and buy stuff. I get your point, when it was discussed here in Portugal many people argued that, but in terms of practicality it's better, IMO, for many families who cannot do shopping on weekdays and the weekend is the perfect time. Plus my view, is that for businesses, it can also be positive as it creates more revenue, big and small.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2020, 11:57:55 PM
My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.

Neither did I, to be honest. Maybe because I support opening shops on Sunday, supported the ban on begging, or support the access of financial documents of state supported associations, maybe putted me more on the right part of the scale. Maybe, don't know.

Curiously, in Portuguese election quizzes, my results, more often than not, point to the PS rather than the party I actually vote.

Ughhh, you support opening shops on Sunday ?

Sunday opening destroys family life, as most cashiers are women who want Sunday to be home with the rest of the family.

Yeah, but on Sunday everybody has more time to go out and buy stuff. I get your point, when it was discussed here in Portugal many people argued that, but in terms of practicality it's better, IMO, for many families who cannot do shopping on weekdays and the weekend is the perfect time. Plus my view, is that for businesses, it can also be positive as it creates more revenue, big and small.

Sorry, but that is a lame argument: Sunday shopping exists here in the tourism areas (for a few hours), but I never shop on a Sunday. And most local people are not either.

It’s just for the damn tourists.

As if these damn tourists cannot shop during the week or at a Saturday, when shops are open until 6-8pm ...

It’s all about planning. You can easily buy your stuff on Friday/Saturday and „survive“ the Sunday without shops being open.

Besides, tourists can also eat at restaurants on a Sunday.

Those damn business lobbys arguing for comprehensive Sunday opening are just corporate whores trying to destroy the last common family day.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2020, 12:31:37 AM
The Austrian Army is in a terrible shape (like in neighboring Germany), because only 0.6% of our GDP is spent on it.

Now they need to save everywhere.

A new Standard poll shows that Austrians would most want to cut down on costly overseas deployments such as for UN missions in the Balkans, Lebanon or Africa.

They also want to reduce fighter jet flights to a minimum („Eurofighter“), sell most of our artillery equipment and merge different brigades into one for better oversight and less bureaucracy.

Also, by a 55-43 margin, Austrians want to keep the draft in place. There was a referendum in 2013, where Austrians voted to keep the draft by a 60-40 margin (I voted for the professional volunteer army).

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000119693514/deutliche-zustimmung-zu-teilen-von-tanners-reformvorhaben


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2020, 03:29:02 AM
Google-translated APA article about Vienna's postal voting:

Quote
You can vote in Vienna from September 14th

Reading time 3 min

The Vienna municipal council and district council elections are scheduled for October 11th. However, you can cast your votes a month earlier: voting cards will be issued from September 14th. And you can fill this out in Vienna when you pick it up at the municipal district office and return it again. Because of the corona pandemic, a postal voting record is expected.

The City of Vienna is particularly promoting the option of postal voting this year - in order to prevent an excessive drop in voter turnout due to fear of contagion. The Styrian municipal council elections held at the end of June showed that this concern is justified: participation fell by almost eleven percentage points (to 62.6 percent). After the very high participation of 74.75 percent in 2015, opinion researchers expect the same for Vienna.

In Styria you could also see that postal voting is even more popular than usual in Corona times: three times more Styrians than 2015 requested voting cards for the municipal council elections, although the number of eligible voters remained almost unchanged at just over 800,000: More than 173,000 - so almost 22 percent - did not want to go to the polling station this year, but use the postal vote. How high the percentage actually was is not shown - because in Styria the voting cards are counted together with the ballot box votes on Sunday.

This is not the case in Vienna, as postal votes and voting cards handed in in "foreign" constituencies are not evaluated by the district electoral authorities until Monday. Provisions are made for the expected major attack: the electoral authorities are given additional support staff. And the stipulation that the final result including postal voting will be available on Monday has been removed from the election regulations. So it could be Tuesday this year too, until the outcome of the election is certain.

How many of the 1,133,010 voters for the municipal council and 1,362,789 for the district council elections (citizens of other EU countries are also allowed to participate) will use postal votes this year is difficult to estimate. Already in 2015, almost a fifth of voters did not go to the polling station on Sunday, but cast their votes by post or when they picked up the voting card at the district office.

For this year, opinion pollers expect that at least 30, maybe 40 percent of the votes will be cast by voting card. In any case, a very large chunk will still be missing in the preliminary overall result announced on Sunday evening. The projections will also become more difficult with the expected postal voting record - especially since postal voters no longer follow the previous pattern (ÖVP and Greens do better with them, SPÖ and FPÖ worse than with ballot box voters).

Voting cards for the Viennese elections can already be requested. The ballot papers and voting cards are currently in production - and will be delivered to the district election authorities in the course of the next week. You have until shortly before the election to decide whether or not to go to the polling station on election Sunday. Voting cards can be requested online, in writing (letter, email, fax) up to the Wednesday before the election - and in person (or by an authorized representative who will take them with them) until Friday, October 9th.

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/ab-14-september-kann-in-wien-schon-gewaehlt-werden/213356


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 05, 2020, 06:26:30 AM
My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.

Neither did I, to be honest. Maybe because I support opening shops on Sunday, supported the ban on begging, or support the access of financial documents of state supported associations, maybe putted me more on the right part of the scale. Maybe, don't know.

Curiously, in Portuguese election quizzes, my results, more often than not, point to the PS rather than the party I actually vote.

Ughhh, you support opening shops on Sunday ?

Sunday opening destroys family life, as most cashiers are women who want Sunday to be home with the rest of the family.

Yeah, but on Sunday everybody has more time to go out and buy stuff. I get your point, when it was discussed here in Portugal many people argued that, but in terms of practicality it's better, IMO, for many families who cannot do shopping on weekdays and the weekend is the perfect time. Plus my view, is that for businesses, it can also be positive as it creates more revenue, big and small.

Sorry, but that is a lame argument: Sunday shopping exists here in the tourism areas (for a few hours), but I never shop on a Sunday. And most local people are not either.

It’s just for the damn tourists.

As if these damn tourists cannot shop during the week or at a Saturday, when shops are open until 6-8pm ...

It’s all about planning. You can easily buy your stuff on Friday/Saturday and „survive“ the Sunday without shops being open.

Besides, tourists can also eat at restaurants on a Sunday.

Those damn business lobbys arguing for comprehensive Sunday opening are just corporate whores trying to destroy the last common family day.

I will speak from my country view: Tourists are important also, and they are one of the main reason Portugal's economic data has been quite good in the last 4 years, but remember that Portugal is still a very poor country and many people don't make enough ends meet by the end of the month, so another day open can be very good for the income of many families who own small businesses like shops, restaurants and others. I support it because of the economic problems the country has.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2020, 12:23:21 PM
Another new poll and the SPÖ is reaching a new high:
 
41% SPÖ (+1.4%)
20% ÖVP (+10.8%)
15% Greens (+3.2%)
  9% FPÖ (-21.8%)
  7% NEOS (+0.8%)
  5% THC (+5.0%)
  3% Others (+0.6%)

Projected turnout: 65% (-10%)

Link (https://php.heute.at/wien_wahl/Pra%CC%88sentation_Wien_HEUTE_ATV_Sonntagsfrage_Koalitionen.pdf)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2020, 02:47:02 AM
Election information cards to all 1.36 million voters in Vienna will be sent out this week, incl. postal ballot requests:

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3065860

The election information cards will have the precinct of each voter on them and the opening/closing times on election Sunday (usually 7am-5pm).

The Postal Service also says they will set up 40 additional drop boxes all over Vienna, because 500.000 postal ballots are expected (vs. 200.000 in 2015).

The Postal Service will also empty all mailboxes in the country on Sunday after 9am for this election occasion. This will limit the number of ballots coming in too late to a minimum. Only if people are so stupid to drop them off at a postal box on Sunday afternoon there's a chance it will be missed.

If someone requests a postal ballot, it can only be distributed to the person who requested it, who will have to ID himself/herself and sign receipt of the ballot in front of the postal worker.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 09, 2020, 08:42:01 AM
Another new poll and the SPÖ is reaching a new high:
 
41% SPÖ (+1.4%)
20% ÖVP (+10.8%)
15% Greens (+3.2%)
  9% FPÖ (-21.8%)
  7% NEOS (+0.8%)
  5% THC (+5.0%)
  3% Others (+0.6%)

Projected turnout: 65% (-10%)

Link (https://php.heute.at/wien_wahl/Pra%CC%88sentation_Wien_HEUTE_ATV_Sonntagsfrage_Koalitionen.pdf)

I think you mean "a new *recent* high" ;)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2020, 10:58:13 AM
Another new poll and the SPÖ is reaching a new high:
 
41% SPÖ (+1.4%)
20% ÖVP (+10.8%)
15% Greens (+3.2%)
  9% FPÖ (-21.8%)
  7% NEOS (+0.8%)
  5% THC (+5.0%)
  3% Others (+0.6%)

Projected turnout: 65% (-10%)

Link (https://php.heute.at/wien_wahl/Pra%CC%88sentation_Wien_HEUTE_ATV_Sonntagsfrage_Koalitionen.pdf)

I think you mean "a new *recent* high" ;)

Of course.

Considering they were once polling at 30% or below already ... :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2020, 10:58:44 AM
A Wikipedia page has been created:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Viennese_state_election


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 11, 2020, 03:14:22 AM
New week, new poll showing Ludwig and the SPÖ gaining in Vienna:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 11, 2020, 03:40:51 AM
With rising virus cases in Vienna, the city government (SPÖ+Greens) is intensifying their efforts to get people to vote early or by mail.

This is possible starting on Monday.

People can go to their 23 district offices in Vienna, request a postal ballot and either fill it out there already and cast it again within a minute, or take the ballot home with them to vote later by post or on election day.

The city hopes that 500.000+ of the expected 800.000 voters will vote early or by post, so that not all too many people will be in the precincts at the same time on election day.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/daniel/corona-explosion-wackelt-jetzt-wien-wahl/445729519


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2020, 04:01:59 AM
The FPÖ and Team Strache are the only parties holding larger campaign events in public:

()

All other parties in Vienna are almost exclusively campaigning online, on TV, on the radio, by post or with posters on the street. If anything, they only have small gatherings with a lot of space in between and mask-wearing. You hardly see masks at FPÖ or THC events.

...

In other news, the Austrian ÖVP+Green federal government is completely split on the topic of taking in refugees from the burnt-down Moria camp on Lesbos, Greece.

The Greens have started a campaign to convince the ÖVP that the country should take in at least 100 kids and their mothers.

The ÖVP is categorically opposed, warning about a "pull-effect" seen after the 2015 invasion.

The situation is good news for the FPÖ and THC though. Just with Corona as a topic, their fortunes would have been quite small, but with the refugee situation coming back, they might gain a few extra points with voters ...

https://orf.at/stories/3181048


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2020, 01:28:48 PM
New OGM/Kurier newspaper poll for Vienna:

()

On top is the - hypothetical - mayoral vote. A bit misleading. Below right is the actual poll.

Projected turnout: 70% (totally certain voters)

53% say they are going to vote in-person on election Sunday
42% early in-person or by postal vote
  5% Undecided

Strong results for SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens. Bad results for FPÖ and NEOS. Strache would be out.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: jeron on September 12, 2020, 01:47:08 PM
New OGM/Kurier newspaper poll for Vienna:

()

On top is the - hypothetical - mayoral vote. A bit misleading. Below right is the actual poll.

Projected turnout: 70% (totally certain voters)

53% say they are going to vote in-person on election Sunday
42% early in-person or by postal vote
  5% Undecided

Strong results for SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens. Bad results for FPÖ and NEOS. Strache would be out.

Do SPÖ and Greens want to continue their coalition?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2020, 01:51:12 PM
New OGM/Kurier newspaper poll for Vienna:

()

On top is the - hypothetical - mayoral vote. A bit misleading. Below right is the actual poll.

Projected turnout: 70% (totally certain voters)

53% say they are going to vote in-person on election Sunday
42% early in-person or by postal vote
  5% Undecided

Strong results for SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens. Bad results for FPÖ and NEOS. Strache would be out.

Do SPÖ and Greens want to continue their coalition?

Yes.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2020, 12:46:19 AM
Strache gets annoyed by a Muezzin while drinking coffee in Vienna:



New Strache ad. LOL.

He might be a corrupt moron, but he's having the better campaign than the FPÖ ... :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2020, 01:05:17 AM
Municipal elections today in the state of Vorarlberg, the 2nd-smallest state in the country at the border of Switzerland.

305.000 people are eligible to vote. This is a very ÖVP- or Independent-lists-who-are-affiliated-with-the-ÖVP-affair.

Polls close at 1am.

https://vorarlberg.orf.at/stories/3066156


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 13, 2020, 07:41:30 AM
are the Social Democrats bringing out their gnomes?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2020, 08:03:20 AM
are the Social Democrats bringing out their gnomes?

No, but here are some pictures from the voting in Vorarlberg today:

()

()

()

Each town was able to mandate on their own if voters needed masks or not.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2020, 01:05:10 PM
Turnout in the Vorarlberg municipal elections today dropped to 53.4%, from 58.6% in 2015.

But even before the virus, Vorarlberg had the lowest turnouts in all of Austria.

This doesn't really bode well for Vienna either, where the SPÖ is heading for a clear victory and because of the lack of a close race many voters will sit this election out as well (unlike the high 2015 state election turnout due to the migrant invasion).

As for the results today in Vorarlberg:

Not much change compared to 2015.

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/GV/GV_2020-09-13

https://orf.at/wahl/vorarlberg20/choropleth/winner

https://orf.at/wahlergebnisse/vorarlberg-gemeindewahlen15/#analysis

The FPÖ lost 1 of their 3 mayors from 2015, the SPÖ kept all 2.

The other 92 mayors are still either ÖVP or Independents close to the ÖVP.

There are also a few runoffs in the bigger cities, but it is unlikely that the ÖVP mayors will get defeated there.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2020, 03:28:49 AM
Today, early and postal voting is starting in Vienna for the state and district elections.

Voters have 4 weeks to vote early.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-2020-versand-der-wahlkarten-hat-begonnen/6738209

There are 1.363 million eligible voters in Vienna and assuming a 70% turnout, that's ca. 954.000 votes cast.

Ca. 45% of them will be cast early or by post, so that's ca. 430.000 ballots.

Voters can request a postal ballot at their city election office and either fill it out right there and drop it off again, or take the ballot with them.

The city even has their 23 election offices opened on Saturdays.

Here's how the ballot in Vienna Inner-West looks like (10 parties, ranked by 2015-strength and by the time they handed in their signatures). On the right, there are 2 columns where voters can write-in preference votes on the district level (1 choice) and city-wide (2 choices).

()

Postal ballot envelope and drop-off box at the city election offices:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2020, 12:12:23 PM
More evidence that the liberal NEOS voting crowd in Vienna is a lot more leftist than the NEOS voting crowd in the rest of Austria:

()

"Do you support admitting 100 children from the burned-down refugee camp in Moria, Greece ?"


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2020, 04:57:58 AM
NEOS is complaining that the election information letters incl. postal ballot requests going out to all 1.363 million Vienna voters contain a picture and signature of SPÖ mayor Michael Ludwig:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 16, 2020, 05:13:22 AM
The Vienna Greens are already campaigning off Trump's recent remarks on FOX News that "Austrians live in forest cities":

()

"More Green for Vienna."

"Who is able to create a forest city, if not Vienna ?"



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 17, 2020, 10:40:09 AM
Dominik Nepp, FPÖ-Vienna leader, has already cast his absentee ballot in person:

()

Nepp, who leads the FPÖ (previously very critical of the postal/absentee voting process), says that he encourages people to vote early in-person by absentee ballot because it will limit the voter flow on election day in the precincts and it won't be too crowded then.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-fpoe-spitzenkandidat-nepp-stimmte-bereits-per-wahlkarte-ab/6743139

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/fpoe-wien-chef-nepp-geht-frueh-waehlen-und-hofft-auf-20-prozent/401034869


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2020, 10:32:39 AM
By a 2-point margin, Austrians support taking in additional children from the burned-down Moria, Greece refugee camp:

46% for
44% against

By party:

87-9 in favour - Green voters
66-26 in favour - NEOS voters
63-27 in favour - SPÖ voters
37-55 against - ÖVP voters
15-78 against - FPÖ voters

https://www.heute.at/s/45-prozent-gegen-aufnahme-von-moria-fluechtlingen-100102653

Austria has admitted 7.000 asylum seekers already this year up to July, among them 600 children below 18 years.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 18, 2020, 10:39:44 AM
Dominik Nepp, FPÖ-Vienna leader, has already cast his absentee ballot in person:

()

Nepp, who leads the FPÖ (previously very critical of the postal/absentee voting process), says that he encourages people to vote early in-person by absentee ballot because it will limit the voter flow on election day in the precincts and it won't be too crowded then.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-fpoe-spitzenkandidat-nepp-stimmte-bereits-per-wahlkarte-ab/6743139

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/fpoe-wien-chef-nepp-geht-frueh-waehlen-und-hofft-auf-20-prozent/401034869

Thought that FPOers didn't like mask wearing?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2020, 10:57:20 AM
Dominik Nepp, FPÖ-Vienna leader, has already cast his absentee ballot in person:

()

Nepp, who leads the FPÖ (previously very critical of the postal/absentee voting process), says that he encourages people to vote early in-person by absentee ballot because it will limit the voter flow on election day in the precincts and it won't be too crowded then.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-fpoe-spitzenkandidat-nepp-stimmte-bereits-per-wahlkarte-ab/6743139

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/fpoe-wien-chef-nepp-geht-frueh-waehlen-und-hofft-auf-20-prozent/401034869

Thought that FPOers didn't like mask wearing?

In government buildings, such as election offices, it is required.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 19, 2020, 12:28:30 AM
Funny, new 🍺 Beer Party 🍺 web ad, joking about Strache and Gudenus („good anus“):




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 19, 2020, 02:21:16 AM
New "Profil" magazine poll.

ÖVP is back to where they were before Coronavirus ...

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2020, 06:32:24 AM
Vienna mayor Michael Ludwig (Social Dems) knows how to win elections.

By working at the city’s trash collection:

()

()

()

https://www.krone.at/2233610


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 21, 2020, 03:21:44 AM
Vienna is ramping up its efforts to conduct the state election on October 11, amid a big 2nd wave of Coronavirus. Early voting is already possible, to limit the amount of people in the precincts on election day:

(Google translated)

City prepares for safe election

Quote
More staff and comprehensive protective measures should make the Vienna election on October 11th as safe as possible due to the coronavirus. This includes, among other things: it is best to bring your own pen. It is mandatory to wear a mask - with one important exception.

Online since today, 6 a.m.

To check the identity of those entitled to vote, the protection must be removed briefly. To ensure this process is carried out safely, “identification screens” made of Plexiglas are used in every polling station.

Voting by voting card is in progress

Exactly 1,133,010 people will be eligible to vote in the municipal council election. In the district council elections there are 1,362,789 people. There are 1,494 polling stations available for them on election day between 7 a.m. and 5 p.m. Anyone who cannot vote at the responsible polling station on election day, for example due to being absent or for health reasons, has the option to vote now: with a voting card by postal vote directly in the responsible election office.

()

Mobile columns with privacy screens are available for voting. In the polling stations it is mandatory to wear mouth and nose protection. Eligible voters are asked to bring their own ballpoint pen. With a voting card, votes can already be cast by postal vote at home and abroad or on election day in any Viennese voting card polling station.

More staff for the expected rush for voting cards

In critical facilities such as nursing homes, only people who live there vote. Eligible voters from outside were allocated to other districts. Polling stations with a room size of less than 40 square meters were also moved to larger rooms. The staff for issuing voting cards has been increased in order to be prepared for the increased interest in voting cards: Compared to the 2019 National Council election, 163 more people are working in the election units.

Since the spring, the Vienna Election Service (MA 62) has been working intensively on protective measures for a safe choice of Vienna in collaboration with experts from the field of hygiene and microbiology and a mathematical model simulation. All protective measures were coordinated with the medical crisis team of the City of Vienna.

No pen in the voting booth

When voting, those entitled to vote must take mouth and nose protection with them and wear it from the entrance to the building. The electoral staff also wear mouth and nose protection in the building and at the polling station. Posters and additional stewards indicate the obligation to wear mouth and nose protection and to keep a distance of one meter. Depending on the situation at the polling station, additional folders can be flexibly parked.

()

Eligible voters are asked to bring their own ballpoint pen to vote. If not, disinfected pens are available at the polling station. This time there is no ballpoint pen in the voting booth itself.

Mobile special cleaning teams

In addition to the basic disinfection of voting furniture such as voting booths, ballot boxes, tables, all contact points with which the voters come into contact are wiped disinfected on election day, immediately before the start of voting time at 7:00 a.m. The contact points are disinfected every two hours on election day.

The cleaning staff was increased for this. In addition to the cleaning staff on site, mobile special cleaning teams are available on election day to remove dirt and refill soap, paper towels and toilet paper.

Ventilate every hour

The electoral staff were instructed to ventilate the polling station at least every hour for at least three minutes before the start of the election and during the rest of the day, unless the polling station was mechanically ventilated.

The city offers all municipal employees involved in the election and counting, as well as assessors and substitute assessors (as well as confidants and witnesses), a voluntary test as part of a screening program run by the state medical directorate. In total, around 12,000 people will be invited to take part in the screening. Those who take part will receive a gargle test before and after the election.

Flying electoral authorities also for CoV sufferers

Eligible voters who are unable to visit a polling station can be visited on election day by specially equipped flying electoral authorities. This also applies to voters who are sick with Covid-19 or who have been classified as suspected cases. In these special cases, protective equipment is reinforced by putting on FFP2 masks without an exhalation valve, face visors, disposable gowns and gloves. The flying electoral authorities are also supported by paramedics during CoV operations.

However, the prerequisite for voting before a flying electoral authority is a voting card, which must be applied for in writing by October 7th at the latest. If an authorized person can pick up the voting card, this is possible until October 9th, 12 noon. Special protective measures, which are based on local requirements, also apply in hospitals.

Check polling station address

Around two weeks before the election, all eligible voters will receive the “Official Voting Information” by post. This informs about the responsible polling station. Due to the changes caused by the coronavirus, the Vienna Election Service recommends checking the address of the polling station in the “Official Election Information”. The responsible polling station can also be found in the polling station search .

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3067710


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2020, 07:31:48 AM
243.541 absentee ballots have already been requested in Vienna and there are still more than 2 weeks to go.

This is already more than in any other election so far, except the 2019 federal elections, when 266.150 were issued.

I don’t think that 500.000 will be reached, but 400.000, which would be every 2nd expected vote that will be cast.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120209040/rekord-bei-wahlkarten-vor-wien-wahl


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 24, 2020, 12:26:51 AM
The Austrian Constitutional Court will start their fall session today with a new composition of judges and hear arguments about the controversial topic of assisted suicide.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120217411/warum-das-recht-auf-sterbehilfe-so-heftig-umstritten-ist

Editorial pro-assisted suicide:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120214242/sterbehilfe-erlauben-im-geist-der-selbstbestimmung

Editorial against-assisted suicide:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120210357/sterbehilfe-nicht-erlauben-toeten-als-tabubruch

The Court consists of 14 members, who are appointed by either the federal government, the Nationalrat or Bundesrat. The Austrian President is swearing them in, but has a veto possibility.

Unlike in the US, the judges are not appointed for life, but have to retire at 70.

The Court consists of 10 men and 4 women and has an ÖVP-affiliated President and Green-affiliated Vice-President.

6 of the judges are close to the ÖVP, 5 SPÖ-affiliated, 2 FPÖ-near and 1 Green-minded.

Claudia Kahr is the oldest judge (since 1999), Verena Madner (Vice-President) the newest since April 2020.

The current Court is tilting 8-6 Right/Left, but is in fact pretty independent and has thrown out several laws of the right-wing ÖVP/FPÖ government in the past.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 26, 2020, 11:59:52 PM
Vienna internal poll for the ÖVP by Demox Research (Sept. 6-18, n=800):

()

https://www.krone.at/2238688

https://www.vol.at/oevp-haelt-erwartungen-vor-wien-wahl-niedrig/6753644

The ÖVP thinks they are heavily overestimated in the public polls and are setting expectations low. They also say an "absolute majority" is possible for the SPÖ (under Vienna's election law that favours the strongest parties over the weaker parties, an absolute majority could be reached with 46% already, but only if Strache is out). The ÖVP mentions that the chances for this are small though. It's pretty clear that their aim is to demobilize potential SPÖ-voters in Vienna, by showing the party far ahead.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2020, 07:38:02 AM
2 weeks before the election, Vienna's SPÖ is marching further and further ahead.

New, big "Heute" / ATV / Unique Research poll (n=1.610, 16.-25. September):

42% SPÖ (+2.4% compared to 2015)
19% ÖVP (+9.8%)
15% Greens (+3.2%)
  9% FPÖ (-21.8%)
  7% NEOS (+0.8%)
  4% THC (+4.0%)
  4% Others (+1.6%)

There's a 5% threshold.

Projected turnout: 71% (-4 compared to 2015)

Turnout by party ("absolutely certain to vote", 10/10):

82% NEOS
79% ÖVP
75% Greens
75% SPÖ
71% FPÖ
56% THC

Are you going to vote on election day or early in-person/by postal ballot ?

51% on election day
41% early in-person/by postal ballot

By party:

69-28 election day/early or by post - THC
64-27 election day/early or by post - FPÖ
54-40 election day/early or by post - SPÖ
48-50 election day/early or by post - ÖVP
45-44 election day/early or by post - NEOS
42-44 election day/early or by post - Greens

Full Poll (PDF) (https://php.heute.at/wien_wahl/Pra%CC%88sentation_Wien_HEUTE_ATV_Sonntagsfrage_Koalition.pdf)

https://www.heute.at/s/wien-wahl-umfrage-die-prognose-fuer-den-wahltag-100104010


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2020, 08:02:47 AM
There are also a few runoffs in the bigger cities, but it is unlikely that the ÖVP mayors will get defeated there.

WOW.

I was wrong.

There were 6 mayoral runoffs in Vorarlberg today, incl. the capital Bregenz - which is famous for the James Bond movie.

We have results from 4 of them and in 3 the ÖVP incumbent mayors got defeated today.

The capital Bregenz will get an SPÖ mayor for the first time since 1990.

In another city, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by the Green challenger.

And in another, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by an Independent challenger.

Only in 1 of the 4, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2020, 08:18:24 AM
There are also a few runoffs in the bigger cities, but it is unlikely that the ÖVP mayors will get defeated there.

WOW.

I was wrong.

There were 6 mayoral runoffs in Vorarlberg today, incl. the capital Bregenz - which is famous for the James Bond movie.

We have results from 4 of them and in 3 the ÖVP incumbent mayors got defeated today.

The capital Bregenz will get an SPÖ mayor for the first time since 1990.

In another city, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by the Green challenger.

And in another, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by an Independent challenger.

Only in 1 of the 4, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate.

The results of the remaining 2 cities are in:

In Hard, the SPÖ-challenger defeated the ÖVP-mayor with 67.1% !

In Bludenz, the ÖVP-mayor survived with 51.7% vs. the SPÖ candidate.

Bottom line:

ÖVP-mayors got defeated in 4/6 runoffs today in this conservative state.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: It's Perro Sanxe wot won it on September 27, 2020, 08:59:07 AM
There are also a few runoffs in the bigger cities, but it is unlikely that the ÖVP mayors will get defeated there.

WOW.

I was wrong.

There were 6 mayoral runoffs in Vorarlberg today, incl. the capital Bregenz - which is famous for the James Bond movie.

We have results from 4 of them and in 3 the ÖVP incumbent mayors got defeated today.

The capital Bregenz will get an SPÖ mayor for the first time since 1990.

In another city, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by the Green challenger.

And in another, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by an Independent challenger.

Only in 1 of the 4, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate.

The results of the remaining 2 cities are in:

In Hard, the SPÖ-challenger defeated the ÖVP-mayor with 67.1% !

In Bludenz, the ÖVP-mayor survived with 51.7% vs. the SPÖ candidate.

Bottom line:

ÖVP-mayors got defeated in 4/6 runoffs today in this conservative state.

Could this have any national implications?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2020, 09:53:01 AM
There are also a few runoffs in the bigger cities, but it is unlikely that the ÖVP mayors will get defeated there.

WOW.

I was wrong.

There were 6 mayoral runoffs in Vorarlberg today, incl. the capital Bregenz - which is famous for the James Bond movie.

We have results from 4 of them and in 3 the ÖVP incumbent mayors got defeated today.

The capital Bregenz will get an SPÖ mayor for the first time since 1990.

In another city, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by the Green challenger.

And in another, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by an Independent challenger.

Only in 1 of the 4, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate.

The results of the remaining 2 cities are in:

In Hard, the SPÖ-challenger defeated the ÖVP-mayor with 67.1% !

In Bludenz, the ÖVP-mayor survived with 51.7% vs. the SPÖ candidate.

Bottom line:

ÖVP-mayors got defeated in 4/6 runoffs today in this conservative state.

Could this have any national implications?


No, not really.

Those are just a few smaller cities in the range of 15.000-30.000 inhabitants.

But it's still funny, because the newspapers are spinning it as some kind of defeat for Chancellor Kurz.

The Vienna state election in 2 weeks is what's going to have national implications.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 27, 2020, 10:22:25 AM
There are also a few runoffs in the bigger cities, but it is unlikely that the ÖVP mayors will get defeated there.

WOW.

I was wrong.

There were 6 mayoral runoffs in Vorarlberg today, incl. the capital Bregenz - which is famous for the James Bond movie.

We have results from 4 of them and in 3 the ÖVP incumbent mayors got defeated today.

The capital Bregenz will get an SPÖ mayor for the first time since 1990.

In another city, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by the Green challenger.

And in another, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by an Independent challenger.

Only in 1 of the 4, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate.

The results of the remaining 2 cities are in:

In Hard, the SPÖ-challenger defeated the ÖVP-mayor with 67.1% !

In Bludenz, the ÖVP-mayor survived with 51.7% vs. the SPÖ candidate.

Bottom line:

ÖVP-mayors got defeated in 4/6 runoffs today in this conservative state.

Could this have any national implications?


No, not really.

Those are just a few smaller cities in the range of 15.000-30.000 inhabitants.

But it's still funny, because the newspapers are spinning it as some kind of defeat for Chancellor Kurz.

The Vienna state election in 2 weeks is what's going to have national implications.

I know local elections aren't the same as national ones, but it might still be a sign his honeymoon is wearing off just a bit?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2020, 10:47:57 AM
There are also a few runoffs in the bigger cities, but it is unlikely that the ÖVP mayors will get defeated there.

WOW.

I was wrong.

There were 6 mayoral runoffs in Vorarlberg today, incl. the capital Bregenz - which is famous for the James Bond movie.

We have results from 4 of them and in 3 the ÖVP incumbent mayors got defeated today.

The capital Bregenz will get an SPÖ mayor for the first time since 1990.

In another city, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by the Green challenger.

And in another, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by an Independent challenger.

Only in 1 of the 4, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate.

The results of the remaining 2 cities are in:

In Hard, the SPÖ-challenger defeated the ÖVP-mayor with 67.1% !

In Bludenz, the ÖVP-mayor survived with 51.7% vs. the SPÖ candidate.

Bottom line:

ÖVP-mayors got defeated in 4/6 runoffs today in this conservative state.

Could this have any national implications?


No, not really.

Those are just a few smaller cities in the range of 15.000-30.000 inhabitants.

But it's still funny, because the newspapers are spinning it as some kind of defeat for Chancellor Kurz.

The Vienna state election in 2 weeks is what's going to have national implications.

I know local elections aren't the same as national ones, but it might still be a sign his honeymoon is wearing off just a bit?

Kurz and the ÖVP still remain strong everywhere, but their best days are certainly behind them.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 28, 2020, 12:01:26 AM
There are also a few runoffs in the bigger cities, but it is unlikely that the ÖVP mayors will get defeated there.

WOW.

I was wrong.

There were 6 mayoral runoffs in Vorarlberg today, incl. the capital Bregenz - which is famous for the James Bond movie.

We have results from 4 of them and in 3 the ÖVP incumbent mayors got defeated today.

The capital Bregenz will get an SPÖ mayor for the first time since 1990.

In another city, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by the Green challenger.

And in another, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by an Independent challenger.

Only in 1 of the 4, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate.

The results of the remaining 2 cities are in:

In Hard, the SPÖ-challenger defeated the ÖVP-mayor with 67.1% !

In Bludenz, the ÖVP-mayor survived with 51.7% vs. the SPÖ candidate.

Bottom line:

ÖVP-mayors got defeated in 4/6 runoffs today in this conservative state.

Could this have any national implications?


No, not really.

Those are just a few smaller cities in the range of 15.000-30.000 inhabitants.

But it's still funny, because the newspapers are spinning it as some kind of defeat for Chancellor Kurz.

The Vienna state election in 2 weeks is what's going to have national implications.

I know local elections aren't the same as national ones, but it might still be a sign his honeymoon is wearing off just a bit?

Kurz and the ÖVP still remain strong everywhere, but their best days are certainly behind them.

There were also 3 by-elections for the city council in Lower Austria yesterday (in smaller cities though compared to the VBG ones) and the SPÖ suffered big losses there, with the ÖVP winning absolute majorities in all 3 of them.

https://noe.orf.at/stories/3068810


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 28, 2020, 04:25:06 AM
Interesting result from the latest, huge Vienna poll:

"Who would be the best party leader for the Vienna-FPÖ ?"

All Vienna voters: 19% Nepp, 16% Kickl, 13% Strache, 52% undecided/other/don't care

FPÖ+THC voters: 41% Kickl, 35% Strache, 18% Nepp, 6% undecided/other/don't care

FPÖ voters: 50% Kickl, 25% Nepp, 16% Strache, 9% undecided/other/don't care

THC voters: 77% Strache, 21% Kickl, 2% Nepp, 0% undecided/other/don't care

https://infogram.com/bester-parteiobmann-fur-die-wiener-fpo-1h984wemr8pz4p3

Dominik Nepp is the current FPÖ-leader in Vienna btw.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 28, 2020, 09:08:26 PM
278.000 absentee ballots have been issued in Vienna until Friday.

That’s up from 244.500 on Wednesday morning.

So, basically +33.500 in 3 days.

That’s ca. +10.000 per day.

Last Saturday, Vienna election offices also were open until noon, so ca. 283k I guess.

Then, this week and next week an estimated +60.000 each.

But there’s usually a rush towards the end, so probably 60.000 this week and 80.000 next week.

283k+60+80 = 423.000 absentee ballots

In a 70% turnout election and if 90% of absentee ballots are cast, that would still mean every 2nd vote cast would be by absentee ballot (early in-person or by post).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 28, 2020, 09:24:19 PM
Because of the absentee ballot record, the city of Vienna is reminding voters not to forget the signature on the envelope. Otherwise, the ballot is invalid. Lots of first-time voters (incl. old people) are forgetting it.





Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2020, 03:41:10 AM
278.000 absentee ballots have been issued in Vienna until Friday.

That’s up from 244.500 on Wednesday morning.

So, basically +33.500 in 3 days.

That’s ca. +10.000 per day.

Last Saturday, Vienna election offices also were open until noon, so ca. 283k I guess.

Then, this week and next week an estimated +60.000 each.

But there’s usually a rush towards the end, so probably 60.000 this week and 80.000 next week.

283k+60+80 = 423.000 absentee ballots

In a 70% turnout election and if 90% of absentee ballots are cast, that would still mean every 2nd vote cast would be by absentee ballot (early in-person or by post).

On Saturday, 12.000 were issued in 4 hours.

Up to 290.000 by Monday, 7AM.

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/chronik/wien/2076729-Wahlkarten-ausfuellen-fuer-Dummies.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: PSOL on October 01, 2020, 12:54:09 AM
I couldn’t resist

Jacobin Magazine interviewed someone from LINKS about the Vienna Parliamentary Election (https://jacobinmag.com/2020/09/red-vienna-austria-social-democrats-links-city-council)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 01, 2020, 07:22:55 AM
I couldn’t resist

Jacobin Magazine interviewed someone from LINKS about the Vienna Parliamentary Election (https://jacobinmag.com/2020/09/red-vienna-austria-social-democrats-links-city-council)

This article reads itself as if the Vienna-SPÖ has completely failed and LINKS is some kind of Bernie Sanders salvation force.

In fact, the opposite is true.

The article says that Red Vienna and its role model urban public housing from the 1920s is not built upon, but the city has launched Europe’s largest urban building project the last decade with the creation of a whole new living district for 50.000 people and employment opportunities. It’s called Seestadt Aspern („Lake City Aspern“).

The area north of Vienna looked like Dubai 10 years ago, with fields and steppe - but has now been completely transformed into awesome, affordable housing, kindergartens, schools etc.

Also, mayor Michael Ludwig is pushing the SPÖ to around 45% in a few weeks, levels not seen for a long time. He’s also working closely together with the Greens in the coalition, so that a lot of former pedestrian streets also used by cars have now been transformed mostly into pedestrian zones for bikers and e-scooter riders.

Links will get 1.5%


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 01, 2020, 07:39:16 AM
Vienna poll (Market / derStandard.at, n=787, Sept. 25-29):

42% SPÖ (+2)
21% ÖVP (+12)
16% Greens (+4)
  9% FPÖ (-22)
  6% NEOS (n.c.)
  4% THC (+4)
  2% Others (n.c.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120383828/wiener-spoe-konnte-waehrend-des-wahlkampfs-stark-zulegen

Among voters younger than 30, SPÖ+Greens get 30% each.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 01, 2020, 07:58:56 AM
Whisper it, but "traditional" social democracy does seem to be tentatively emerging from its recent electoral trough in a few places now.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 01, 2020, 08:21:29 AM
Whisper it, but "traditional" social democracy does seem to be tentatively emerging from its recent electoral trough in a few places now.

If they keep shutting the f**k up about immigration and instead focus on issues that matter to working class folks, the SocialDems should be fine the next years and recover.

Unless there’s a massive psychological fallout over Covid and it’s economic and social effects in ca. 3-10 years that turns people back to the Far-Right.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 02, 2020, 10:38:51 AM
278.000 absentee ballots have been issued in Vienna until Friday.

That’s up from 244.500 on Wednesday morning.

So, basically +33.500 in 3 days.

That’s ca. +10.000 per day.

Last Saturday, Vienna election offices also were open until noon, so ca. 283k I guess.

Then, this week and next week an estimated +60.000 each.

But there’s usually a rush towards the end, so probably 60.000 this week and 80.000 next week.

283k+60+80 = 423.000 absentee ballots

In a 70% turnout election and if 90% of absentee ballots are cast, that would still mean every 2nd vote cast would be by absentee ballot (early in-person or by post).

On Saturday, 12.000 were issued in 4 hours.

Up to 290.000 by Monday, 7AM.

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/chronik/wien/2076729-Wahlkarten-ausfuellen-fuer-Dummies.html

I'm upping my absentee ballot request estimate to 445.000, because there are new figures out.

Until yesterday 7AM, about 328.000 absentee ballots have been issued in Vienna.

That is 38.000 more than on Monday morning, so ca. 13.000 per day since then.

https://www.pressreader.com/austria/der-standard/20201002/281603832917382

That would bring the total until tomorrow noon to ~366.000 ballots issued.

I expect another 80.000 during next week, the final week before the election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 03, 2020, 12:20:00 AM
The ORF debate for Vienna between Nepp (FPÖ) and Strache yesterday was lively:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120450631/offene-paartherapie-im-tv-duell-zwischen-nepp-und-strache

Nepp said Strache is all about „me, me, me, victim, victim, victim !“ while in turn Strache called Nepp „a backstabber, my son Brutus (=traitor)“.

Then Nepp said „Strache needs a certain decency, reflection for his actions because he disappointed Austrians and most FPÖ members and former colleagues, many of whom are now unemployed or under investigation“.

Then Strache said to Nepp: „You have been a good student of mine, but now it’s shabby that your only program is being ice-cold against me !“

Nepp: „My program is FOR Vienna ! We are the original!“

The 2 ORF moderators called the debate a „live couple therapy“ and naively asked both if there’s a chance for re-unification ...

:)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Samof94 on October 03, 2020, 05:32:35 AM
The Austrian Constitutional Court will start their fall session today with a new composition of judges and hear arguments about the controversial topic of assisted suicide.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120217411/warum-das-recht-auf-sterbehilfe-so-heftig-umstritten-ist

Editorial pro-assisted suicide:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120214242/sterbehilfe-erlauben-im-geist-der-selbstbestimmung

Editorial against-assisted suicide:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120210357/sterbehilfe-nicht-erlauben-toeten-als-tabubruch

The Court consists of 14 members, who are appointed by either the federal government, the Nationalrat or Bundesrat. The Austrian President is swearing them in, but has a veto possibility.

Unlike in the US, the judges are not appointed for life, but have to retire at 70.

The Court consists of 10 men and 4 women and has an ÖVP-affiliated President and Green-affiliated Vice-President.

6 of the judges are close to the ÖVP, 5 SPÖ-affiliated, 2 FPÖ-near and 1 Green-minded.

Claudia Kahr is the oldest judge (since 1999), Verena Madner (Vice-President) the newest since April 2020.

The current Court is tilting 8-6 Right/Left, but is in fact pretty independent and has thrown out several laws of the right-wing ÖVP/FPÖ government in the past.

()
Many countries are similar to Austria when it comes to judges. American style life appointments are the exception, not the rule. The Japanese are similar and also have 70 as a retirement age. In Canada, RBG would be impossible as no judge can serve past 75.  How do they work with an even number of judges?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 03, 2020, 06:19:53 AM
Many countries are similar to Austria when it comes to judges. American style life appointments are the exception, not the rule. The Japanese are similar and also have 70 as a retirement age. In Canada, RBG would be impossible as no judge can serve past 75.  How do they work with an even number of judges?

Yes, Austria has 14 judges.

But the President of the Court doesn't vote, so it's only 13 (max.)

But not all 13 judges need to be present for decisions. Only 8 need to be present.

The President of the Court then only casts the deciding vote in the event of a tie.

This is called Dirimierungsrecht (from Latin: dirimere) - The right to differ(entiate).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 03, 2020, 08:31:49 AM
The ORF debate for Vienna between Nepp (FPÖ) and Strache yesterday was lively:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120450631/offene-paartherapie-im-tv-duell-zwischen-nepp-und-strache

Nepp said Strache is all about „me, me, me, victim, victim, victim !“ while in turn Strache called Nepp „a backstabber, my son Brutus (=traitor)“.

Then Nepp said „Strache needs a certain decency, reflection for his actions because he disappointed Austrians and most FPÖ members and former colleagues, many of whom are now unemployed or under investigation“.

Then Strache said to Nepp: „You have been a good student of mine, but now it’s shabby that your only program is being ice-cold against me !“

Nepp: „My program is FOR Vienna ! We are the original!“

The 2 ORF moderators called the debate a „live couple therapy“ and naively asked both if there’s a chance for re-unification ...

:)

Great stuff, long may it continue :D


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Samof94 on October 03, 2020, 08:58:57 PM
Many countries are similar to Austria when it comes to judges. American style life appointments are the exception, not the rule. The Japanese are similar and also have 70 as a retirement age. In Canada, RBG would be impossible as no judge can serve past 75.  How do they work with an even number of judges?

Yes, Austria has 14 judges.

But the President of the Court doesn't vote, so it's only 13 (max.)

But not all 13 judges need to be present for decisions. Only 8 need to be present.

The President of the Court then only casts the deciding vote in the event of a tie.
Okay, so they avert the obvious problems.
This is called Dirimierungsrecht (from Latin: dirimere) - The right to differ(entiate).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 12:16:38 AM
New Vienna poll (probably the last before the election) by OGM for the „Krone“:

()

https://www.krone.at/2244210


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 03:43:20 AM
OGM trend chart for the Vienna election, since the start of the year:

()

SPÖ steadily going up, Greens largely stable at a high level, ÖVP and NEOS going down.

NEOS has a very new, young, carpetbagging frontrunner with low name-ID.

The voter trade-offs between FPÖ and Strache should be interesting: I hope the FPÖ ends up below 10%, but hands enough votes to Strache so that he fails with 4.99% of the vote.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 03:49:13 AM
About 1/3 of Vienna residents older than 16 are not eligible to vote in the upcoming state election, because they are non-citizens.

Pollster OGM did an analysis by Vienna precinct:

Most foreigners not eligible to vote are living in inner-city precincts. One exception is the large urban development project I mentioned earlier ("Seestadt Aspern") in the North-East, which is Europe's largest urban development project and aims for gentrification of the city.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 07:17:36 AM
Peter Kraus, Green MP in Vienna, future city councillor and gay is out with a cool new tweet about Trump's "proud boys" ... ;)



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 05, 2020, 04:18:46 AM
The last week before the Vienna election !

The "Kronen Zeitung" (read by 3 million Austrians) is out with a social media ranking of parties for the month of September and surprisingly the satiric Beer Party has won it by far:

()

I expect the Beer Party to be the biggest surprise on Sunday, together with the big victory of SPÖ-mayor Ludwig.

Meanwhile, H.C. Strache is out with a tweet wishing Trump well:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2020, 06:53:48 AM
There will be 3 (!) Elephant TV debates today, tomorrow and on Thursday for Vienna:

Today: Kronen Zeitung / Puls24 debate
Tomorrow: Puls4 / ATV debate
Thursday: ORF debate

Even though half of all voters have already voted ...

Meanwhile, 5/6 main candidates have already voted (incl. FPÖ's Nepp and HC Strache, who campaigned heavily against postal voting a few years ago).

Only Mayor Ludwig has said he'll vote in-person at his precinct on Sunday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2020, 07:07:41 AM
Yesterday, there were already one-on-one TV duels on Puls24 between the frontrunners in Vienna (with Blümel from the ÖVP missing because he had to wait for a COVID-test):

()

Pollster OGM asked a 500-sample panel after each duel about who on:

() ()

() ()

() ()

() ()

() ()

About 750.000 people watched the duels, which is a lot considering it's a Vienna election only.

I also watched a few duels, especially Strache vs. Nepp (which was very nasty) and I noticed that Birgit Hebein from the Greens is an absolutely terrible debater.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 06, 2020, 07:43:29 AM
Consistently strong showings for the SPO there.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2020, 04:47:05 AM
SOS Mitmensch, an NGO, hosted their traditional Pass-Egal-Wahl ("passport doesn't matter vote") ahead of the Vienna state election.

()

Every third Vienna resident above 16 cannot vote on Sunday, because they don't have Austrian citizenship.

That's well over 500.000 people.

Ca. 1.500 people with a foreign citizenship took part - and as usual, the results are pretty lopsided towards the Left parties.

()

Those results will have nothing in common really with the results on Sunday (especially not those for the Greens or LINKS ...)

https://www.sosmitmensch.at/rekordbeteiligung-bei-wiener-pass-egal-wahl-trotz-corona-pandemie


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Omega21 on October 07, 2020, 08:51:09 AM
Green Party candidate said in an Arabic Show:

"By Allah, we have spoken about this topic before […] For the well-being of the children, we want to arbitrate between the parents. It is a good thing and we will try to solve this social problem even though we are against the laws of this country because these laws protect women and give them custody rights and also the rights to raise children."

Now that's woke lol

Important to note that the Greens have distanced themselves from these views and say they will "deal with it" after the election.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/mega-wirbel-um-gruenen-kandidat-abdelati-krimi/449162908


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2020, 09:30:29 AM
Green Party candidate said in an Arabic Show:

"By Allah, we have spoken about this topic before […] For the well-being of the children, we want to arbitrate between the parents. It is a good thing and we will try to solve this social problem even though we are against the laws of this country because these laws protect women and give them custody rights and also the rights to raise children."

Now that's woke lol

Important to note that the Greens have distanced themselves from these views and say they will "deal with it" after the election.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/mega-wirbel-um-gruenen-kandidat-abdelati-krimi/449162908

Should be noted that the guy is ranked #40 on the Green list for Vienna.

Even if the Greens get 25%, he would not make it into parliament ...

But it's no secret that many Muslim/Arab immigrants have pretty disturbing, backwards views.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Astatine on October 07, 2020, 03:53:11 PM
Green Party candidate said in an Arabic Show:

"By Allah, we have spoken about this topic before […] For the well-being of the children, we want to arbitrate between the parents. It is a good thing and we will try to solve this social problem even though we are against the laws of this country because these laws protect women and give them custody rights and also the rights to raise children."

Now that's woke lol

Important to note that the Greens have distanced themselves from these views and say they will "deal with it" after the election.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/mega-wirbel-um-gruenen-kandidat-abdelati-krimi/449162908

Should be noted that the guy is ranked #40 on the Green list for Vienna.

Even if the Greens get 25%, he would not make it into parliament ...

But it's no secret that many Muslim/Arab immigrants have pretty disturbing, backwards views.
Could he still get into Parliament with enough preferential votes (Vorzugsstimmen)?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2020, 08:03:16 PM
Green Party candidate said in an Arabic Show:

"By Allah, we have spoken about this topic before […] For the well-being of the children, we want to arbitrate between the parents. It is a good thing and we will try to solve this social problem even though we are against the laws of this country because these laws protect women and give them custody rights and also the rights to raise children."

Now that's woke lol

Important to note that the Greens have distanced themselves from these views and say they will "deal with it" after the election.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/mega-wirbel-um-gruenen-kandidat-abdelati-krimi/449162908

Should be noted that the guy is ranked #40 on the Green list for Vienna.

Even if the Greens get 25%, he would not make it into parliament ...

But it's no secret that many Muslim/Arab immigrants have pretty disturbing, backwards views.
Could he still get into Parliament with enough preferential votes (Vorzugsstimmen)?

Theoretically, but one needs such a huge amount that it’s impossible for such a nobody.

Besides, Austrian voters do not use preference votes that much, they only vote for a party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 08, 2020, 03:36:02 AM
For the first time in history, Austria will use actual exit polls for the Vienna state election on Sunday.

In all elections until now, 1st projections by TV stations after polls closed were made based on already-counted precincts. Based on these counted precincts and historical voting trends, it was possible to make relatively good projections.

This time it is different, because half of Vienna voters will vote early and by post.

Postal votes will be counted on Monday (and probably Tuesday as well, because of the amount).

That's why the 1st projections on Sunday at 5pm when polls close will be based on exit polls (OGM for ServusTV) or based on election weekend telephone interviews of voters (SORA for the public ORF).

Those exit polls will have a bigger margin of error than the usual projections incl. the precincts (+/- 1%, rather than +/- 0.5%).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 08, 2020, 03:50:39 AM
Election administration and logistics by the City of Vienna and the Postal Service is A+

With 400.000-500.000 expected early and postal votes, there are no reports of long lines at the 23 district voting centers.

Delivery of postal ballots is smooth too, with postal workers being instructed to only deliver the ballots to the person who requested it. Not even family members can accept it. The postal workers are also not allowed to deploy the ballot into the postal box of the requesting person together with regular mail.

The postal worker needs to check the picture ID before handing over the postal ballot to the requestee and needs confirmation by signature, to rule out abuse.

If the requestee is not home, the postal worker takes the ballot back to the postal office, where the requestee can pick it up later with a picture ID such as a passport or driving licence.

The 2016 Constitutional Court ruling really made our elections much safer.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 08, 2020, 08:23:32 AM
Funny story out of Hohenems, Vorarlberg (a city of ca. 20.000 people):

After the municipal elections there, in which the FPÖ-mayor was easily re-elected with 64% of the vote, the city council was about to elect a Vice-Mayor.

The city-FPÖ elected the Green candidate Patricia Tschallener as Vice Mayor, instead of the ÖVP-guy. The ÖVP came in 2nd after the FPÖ in the election, slightly ahead of the Greens.

The FPÖ voted for the Green because of the "disturbing political conduct of the ÖVP recently".

https://vorarlberg.orf.at/stories/3069743/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 08, 2020, 01:48:44 PM
Right now, the Vienna TV debate between all 6 major candidates is taking place on ORF at the historic city hall of Vienna:

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/TV-Konfrontation-der-Spitzenkandidaten-zur-Wien-Wahl-2020/14086733

This is by far the most important debate ahead of the Sunday election.

Strache remains an excellent debater, who knows how to score punches.

I guess he may actually have the biggest potential to surprise on Sunday, together with the SPÖ and the Beer Party.

Blümel (ÖVP) and the current Austrian Finance Minister (and therefore a carpetbagger) is disgustingly slick and slimy.

I cannot imagine how Vienna voters would vote for such a snobby guy and outfit his party with a 12% gain ... I hope the ÖVP ends up with a 6% gain and at 15% instead.

Mayor Ludwig (SPÖ) is doing just fine in those debates. It also seems Hebein from the Greens has a better performance today compared to earlier debates.

The NEOS guy is gunning for an SPÖ-NEOS coalition, with him taking the education city council post.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2020, 01:04:07 AM
Final Ö24 poll ahead of the Vienna election on Sunday:

()

Turnout:

78% are certain to vote, which would be even higher turnout than the 75% in the polarized 2015 election.

I think that’s impossible. Recent state elections have all seen turnout falling compared to the polarized 2015 election cycle. I don’t see why Vienna should be different. I expect 68%.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/wien-wahl-die-letzte-umfrage/449401286


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2020, 01:09:01 AM
The City of Vienna should release at some point in the evening today the number of total absentee/postal ballots issued for the election.

It’s already pretty clear it will be a record amount !


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2020, 09:08:25 AM
The City of Vienna should release at some point in the evening today the number of total absentee/postal ballots issued for the election.

It’s already pretty clear it will be a record amount !

382.214 were issued.

That’s not as many as expected (400.000 to 500.000), but about twice the number from 2015.

Requests were sky-high early on, but the last week now was pretty bad in terms of requests.

In a 70% turnout election, this would mean ca. 40% of all votes would by early or by post.

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2020/10/09/wien-wahl-2020-382-214-wahlkarten-ausgestellt


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2020, 10:37:09 AM
The City of Vienna should release at some point in the evening today the number of total absentee/postal ballots issued for the election.

It’s already pretty clear it will be a record amount !

382.214 were issued.

That’s not as many as expected (400.000 to 500.000), but about twice the number from 2015.

Requests were sky-high early on, but the last week now was pretty bad in terms of requests.

In a 70% turnout election, this would mean ca. 40% of all votes would by early or by post.

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2020/10/09/wien-wahl-2020-382-214-wahlkarten-ausgestellt

Out of the 382.214 absentee ballots issued, 21.651 were for EU-citizens - which are only allowed to vote in the district elections.

That means 360.563 were issued for the state election (in which only Austrian citizens are eligible).

1.133.010 citizens are eligible to vote on Sunday.

Therefore, 31.82% requested a postal ballot - of which ca. 90% will be returned and counted.

That would be 28.64% of all eligible voters.

In a 75% turnout election, 38% of all ballots cast would be early/absentee/post.

In a 70% turnout election, 41% of all ballots cast would be early/absentee/post.

In a 65% turnout election, 44% of all ballots cast would be early/absentee/post.

If 40% of all ballots cast are going to be early/absentee/post, it would need a 71.6% turnout.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2020, 11:07:36 AM
Final FPÖ-Vienna campaign event today:

()

Not many masks, no distance ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2020, 03:34:29 AM
Today:

100-year anniversary of the 1920 Carinthia Referendum.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_Carinthian_plebiscite

After WW1, troops from the newly formed SHS Kingdom (= Yugoslavia) invaded the South-East of Carinthia, an Austrian state.

Carinthians launched a counter-offensive, winning back most of the area.

The South-East of Carinthia at the time was inhabitated by mostly Slovenian-speaking people.

Eventually, a referendum was set in the majority-Slovene zone for 10 October 1920, in which 59% opted to remain with Austria, while 41% opted to join the newly created Yugoslav SAS state.

()

An interesting aspect of the referendum was that many Carinthian Slovenes voted to remain with Carinthia/Austria and NOT join Yugoslavia. Especially a lot of Slovene workers, who thought that Austria's labour laws and benefits at the time were far more progressive than Yugloslav labour laws and benefits.

On the other hand, many wealthy Austrian-German owners of large property in Yugoslavia at the time (land owners, factory owners) voted for joining Yugoslavia ...

There's an event in Klagenfurt right now, attended by Austrian President VdB and Slovenian President Pahor.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2020, 04:35:36 AM
A few impressive statistics for the Vienna election tomorrow:

Vienna will have almost exactly 1.920 million inhabitants tomorrow.

Of those, 1.133 million are citizens and older than 16, therefore eligible to vote (59%).

296.000 are younger than 16 and not eligible (15%).

Another 491.000 are older than 16, but not eligible because foreigners (26%).

That means more than 30% of those who would be older than 16 are not eligible to vote.

Vienna's population has increased by 230.000 in the past 10 years, or by 12%.

Some vote-rich districts like Donaustadt have increased by 30% and are growing like 3rd world countries.

The number of Austrian citizens in Vienna has decreased by more than 20.000 though in the past 10 years (more deaths than births, "white flight" to the suburbs and abroad, which cannot be compensated with naturalisations).

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2020, 04:53:08 AM
Destroyed electoral posters in Vienna (slideshow):

https://sway.office.com/5Wlp8oGFHe8HnfBq

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2020, 05:00:01 AM
This one's good, because it's full of satire:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2020, 06:13:34 AM
Best ad I've seen in years:




Source: BEER Party


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2020, 11:34:34 PM
Today: Vienna state election

Vienna is the capital of 🇦🇹 Austria 🇦🇹 and has ca. 2 million people.

The current city government is Red-Green (SPÖ-Green).

()

There are 2 elections:

* 1.133 million voters (Citizens older than 16 only) elect 100 seats in the city council

* 1.363 million voters (Citizens + EU citizens 16+) elect 23 new district councils

Polls are open from 7am (which is in 30 minutes) to 5pm.

A first projection from SORA for the public ORF will come shortly after 5pm and is based on telephone interviews with voters during the weekend and will carry a MoE of ca. 2-2.5%

Other, private TV stations will use an exit poll.

Then, around 6pm, SORA/ORF will release their 1st projection based on already-counted precincts. This projection will already have a lower MoE of ca. 1.5%

Because there’s a new record for absentee ballots (382.000), there will be a final projection with all Election Day precincts counted + absentee ballot estimate.

All Election Day votes should be counted by 8-10pm, so the final projection should come then, with a MoE of ca. 1% (the postal ballots will get counted on Monday & maybe Tuesday too).

There will be tight COVID security measures at the polling places and extra mobile polling commissions which are visiting the sick and quarantined at home, so they can cast their votes too.

Turnout was a high 75% in 2015, but I expect it to drop to 65-70%.

Here you can read more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Viennese_state_election


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 03:11:15 AM
Voting is already well underway ...

() ()

5/6 frontrunners have already voted early by absentee ballot, only Mayor Michael Ludwig from the SPÖ voted just a few minutes ago in-person:







Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 03:29:23 AM
Twitter #beifunk is used by Austrian poll workers to tweet about polling station activity, such as turnout.

Actual turnout numbers and results are strictly forbidden though.

It seems people are now starting to stream into the polling stations:





Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 03:48:27 AM
Voting is smooth, people are wearing their masks, bring their own pens and keep distance.







Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 06:55:42 AM
An independent election observer for the Vienna election today:

()

PS: turnout needs to be around 40-50% in the precincts today for a reasonable 70% turnout overall. About 26% of all eligible voters voted early or by postal ballot. So far, there are mixed reports about turnout: some precinct workers say "moderate", others say "high turnout" and others "boring". It's hard to get a uniform picture, because Vienna has 1.500 precincts today.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 08:30:22 AM
Polls close in ca. 1.5 hours.

It seems there will be 3 different trend projections at 5pm.

* SORA/ARGE/Hajek for the ORF, PULS 4, ATV, PULS 24 and the APA (n=4.000)

* OGM for ServusTV (n=1.000)

* Research Affairs for Ö24 (n=1.000+)

All of those will be based on election weekend phone+online interviews with early/postal voters as well as interviews with actual voters leaving the precincts.

They will not include already-counted precincts yet.

Only the 1st projections at around 6pm will include those.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 08:40:25 AM
A British woman living in Vienna for more than 30 years went to a polling station to vote in the district council election, as usual.

She was told she cannot vote any more, because Brexit.



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 09:19:43 AM
Election afternoon/evening live coverage has started (polls close in 40 minutes):

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/ZIB-Spezial-Erste-Trendprognose/14087176

https://www.puls24.at/live

https://www.atv.at/livestream

https://www.servustv.com/jetzt-live

https://www.oe24.at/video

https://www.krone.at/videos


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 09:37:56 AM
Rumours are that the BEER Party could surprise today, cutting into the FPÖ and Strache vote.

We'll see.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 11, 2020, 09:42:08 AM
A British woman living in Vienna for more than 30 years went to a polling station to vote in the district council election, as usual.

She was told she cannot vote any more, because Brexit.



Well that sucks a bit.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM
Polls are closing in Vienna.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 11, 2020, 10:03:02 AM
No surprises in the exit polls.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on October 11, 2020, 10:06:46 AM


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:07:11 AM
1st trend polls (by 3 different pollsters):

SPÖ: ca. 41-42% (+2%)
ÖVP: ca. 17-18% (+8%)
Greens: ca. 14-15% (+3%)
FPÖ: ca. 10% (-21%)
NEOS: ca. 8% (+2%)
Strache: ca. 4-5% (+5%)
Others: ca. 3-4%

Those are mostly based on phone/online interviews, not counted votes yet.

MoE = +/- 2.5% (!)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:08:54 AM
Research Affairs / Ö24 projects the Beer Party at 2.5% !

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 11, 2020, 10:09:43 AM
1st trend polls (by 3 different pollsters):

SPÖ: ca. 41-42% (+2%)
ÖVP: ca. 17-18% (+8%)
Greens: ca. 14-15% (+3%)
FPÖ: ca. 10% (-21%)
NEOS: ca. 8% (+2%)
Strache: ca. 4-5% (+5%)
Others: ca. 3-4%

Those are mostly based on phone/online interviews, not counted votes yet.

MoE = +/- 2.5% (!)

Does the 41-42% give the SPÖ an absloute majority or do they still need the support of the Greens?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:11:37 AM
1st trend polls (by 3 different pollsters):

SPÖ: ca. 41-42% (+2%)
ÖVP: ca. 17-18% (+8%)
Greens: ca. 14-15% (+3%)
FPÖ: ca. 10% (-21%)
NEOS: ca. 8% (+2%)
Strache: ca. 4-5% (+5%)
Others: ca. 3-4%

Those are mostly based on phone/online interviews, not counted votes yet.

MoE = +/- 2.5% (!)

Does the 41-42% give the SPÖ an absloute majority or do they still need the support of the Greens?

Even with Strache out, they are nowhere near an absolute majority (46-47%).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 11, 2020, 10:17:02 AM

Even with Strache out, they are nowhere near an absolute majority (46-47%).


Ah, ok. I thought that all the seats were allocated with the D'Hondt method, but it's has constituencies using the Hare quota. Right.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM
6pm should be interesting, when the 1st real projection comes („Hochrechnung“) - which includes counted votes.

Once again, all trend polls so far are just polls, not counted votes.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:20:39 AM
Both the FPÖ and Strache party headquarter crowds look like a truck plowed over them ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:26:43 AM
Vienna results page (in English) is online:

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/GR201/index.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 11, 2020, 10:27:36 AM
Both the FPÖ and Strache party headquarter crowds look like a truck plowed over them ...

Oh dear, what a shame, never mind :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:31:59 AM
Both the FPÖ and Strache party headquarter crowds look like a truck plowed over them ...

Oh dear, what a shame, never mind :)

Yeah, but bad that the Far-Right still gets 14-15% right now in a city like Vienna, despite all their recent scandals.

On the other hand, I think this is not the end of the evening so far ... in previous elections, the FPÖ was always overestimated in the 1st projections by about 1% and then dropped back during the count.

The FPÖ at 9% today and Strache failing with 4.99% would be beautiful.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:37:26 AM
Vienna results page (in English) is online:

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/GR201/index.html

First precincts should come in after 6pm.

Then the count should progress quickly and finish around 9pm.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:59:13 AM
A first real Hochrechnung (1st projection) based on counted votes should come soon.

They are still calculating, because it also includes an estimate for the 360.000 postal/absentee votes, which are the big unknown.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 11:04:37 AM
1st Hochrechnung.

:o


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 11:05:50 AM
Both FPÖ & Strache obliterated.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 11:07:11 AM
()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 11:09:30 AM
Huge win for the left-wing parties.

With NEOS (which are center-left in Vienna), almost 70% combined !


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 11, 2020, 12:06:07 PM
Well that is even worse for the FPO than predicted, if confirmed.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 11, 2020, 12:46:28 PM
Why did the FPO collapse so badly? And on that note how did it do so well in 2016 anyways? (you wouldn't expect Vienna to be particularly fertile ground for them)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 01:00:08 PM
Why did the FPO collapse so badly? And on that note how did it do so well in 2016 anyways? (you wouldn't expect Vienna to be particularly fertile ground for them)

2015.

5-year term.

They did so well in 2015, because the election was held at the absolute perfect time for a far-right party: a couple weeks after a million illegal Arabs and Africans streamed into Austria.

Also: SPÖVP at the time was a joke and HC in full command of a successful FPÖ.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 01:13:10 PM
The Election Day votes are now 99% counted.

Postal/absentee votes (382.000) are counted tomorrow and maybe on Tuesday too, depending on the workload and speed.

Turnout will only be 62-63% incl. those absentee ballots, down 12-13% from the high 75% in 2015.

:(

This could be pretty good news for Biden though:

There were record absentee requests early on, then they tapered off closer to Election Day and a weak Election Day vote. The Left banked most votes early, while the Right collapsed.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 01:30:52 PM
Women in Vienna between the ages of 16-29 voted:

36% Green
36% SPÖ
11% Beer/Left/SÖZ (all 3 are leftist parties, even Beer)
  9% NEOS
  5% ÖVP
  3% FPÖ
  1% Strache


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 01:40:53 PM
SORA also has individual district projections incl. estimates for absentee ballots.

If everything is fully counted, the SPÖ is expected to win 21 of the 23 districts easily.

There are 2 close races, where the SPÖ is projected to win one - while the ÖVP is expected to win the 1st District of Vienna, the City of Vienna (like the City of London).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 01:55:32 PM
Preferred coalition of SPÖ voters:

54% SPÖ-Greens
12% SPÖ-ÖVP
11% SPÖ alone
10% SPÖ-NEOS
  3% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
  3% SPÖ-FPÖ
  4% Other

Preferred coalition of Green voters:

83% SPÖ-Greens
  4% Greens/NEOS (lol)
  3% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
  3% Greens-ÖVP
11% Other


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: PSOL on October 11, 2020, 02:50:53 PM
This is a surprising victory for LINKS, exactly what did they do to get these results?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on October 11, 2020, 03:13:08 PM
Can we get a translation of that Beer party ad? I feel like it’d be funnier if I knew what they were saying...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: parochial boy on October 11, 2020, 05:23:23 PM
Can we get a translation of that Beer party ad? I feel like it’d be funnier if I knew what they were saying...

Seeing as no-one else wants to, German as a third language speaker me shall do the honours

Girls -  talking about how some presumably hispter places in Vienna is too small, so the beer fountain might be more useful
nerdy guy - "oh my God! He's taken the left wing votes"
Men - something about how presumably the leader of the Beer Party is right about "foreign" fruit in our good old Austrian beer (I think this is a joke about pineapple IPA's and that sort of thing)
nerdy guy - "oh my God, he's taken the right wing votes! Who is this guy?"
sunglasses guy - "It's the leader of the Beer party"
nerdy guy tweets that the Beer Party guy is destroying democracy
Beer party guy - "dear voters, don't let yourselves be influenced, your votes don't belong to any party, they can't be stolen, they belong to you"


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2020, 12:17:56 AM
This is a surprising victory for LINKS, exactly what did they do to get these results?

Posters, social media and people thinking "The SPÖ will win big anyway, so let's waste our votes on an even lefter party."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2020, 12:25:51 AM
With 100% of election-day votes counted, let's see what the 382.000 absentee ballots will bring today and how fast they get counted.

There's still a MoE of +/- 1.4% for the parties, because nobody really knows how twice the number of such ballots "behave" relative to the precinct votes.

There are historical patterns, but once you have twice the amount as usual, those patterns might change quite a bit, especially with new parties and such dramatic changes as we saw yesterday.

Anyway, turnout could still end up anywhere between 61-66%, depending on the return and acceptance rate.

Still a big drop from the 75% in 2015, with mostly FPÖ-voters staying home.

Here is a chart of voter streams from 2015 to 2020:

https://orf.at/wahl/wien20/migrations/grw15-migrations


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2020, 12:33:46 AM
According to the voter streams, 40% of 2015 FPÖ-voters (31%) went into the non-voter category yesterday.

That's worth 12% of turnout-drop ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2020, 03:48:49 AM
H.C. Strache has accepted the "Election Clown"-award from the Kronen Zeitung newspaper yesterday evening:

()

The Kronen Zeitung awarded it "to the clown with the biggest bulls*it campaign in the Vienna election."

https://www.krone.at/2250657

:)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2020, 04:46:06 AM
Facebook letter from Herbert Kickl (FPÖ):

Quote
Dear friends,

The voters are always right. If you win, that's how it is. And even if you lose, the sentence is still valid.

The election result in Vienna is more than bitter. This enormous loss of trust hurts immensely. The work of a great many over a long period of time has been ruined. Any attempt to gloss it over is doomed to failure.

And yet: it must go on. And it will go on. Because the many problems that also need to be solved in Vienna did not resolve with yesterday. Because the passionate joy of the winners will soon develop into the familiar inertia of the system.

We were not defeated by other parties this time. The FPÖ itself did this business for our opponents. That is why the success of the future can only come from ourselves.

The keys are work, down-to-earth, honesty and credibility. In addition, there is courage, perseverance and a heart for our people. We have to be there for the Austrians, for their interests, worries and needs. That is our duty as a social home party.

All talk and all demands don't count if you don't follow your principles yourself. As great and strong as the force is if it succeeds, the disappointment and anger are, conversely, great when this simple principle is betrayed.

Any program, however good, is bloodless without the real inner drive. Justice lives only through the righteous. Bravery only through the brave. Modesty only through the humble.

This is how I see our mission. This is how I see my mission. And this is the only way we will regain our strength in Vienna to be strong for all those who are quickly abandoned by yesterday's winners.

Thanks to everyone who has remained loyal to us.

Thank you to everyone who has placed their personal trust in us for the first time.

And thank you also to the many disappointed people for not closing the door to us forever yesterday.

Your

Herbert Kickl


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2020, 05:02:59 AM
A speaker of the Vienna election commission just told the "Standard" newspaper that "they have no hurry and the postal vote count will end no sooner than tomorrow evening or until Wednesday at noon."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2020, 09:18:25 AM
Strache's political career might not be completely over:

Aside from the state election/city council (where he failed to enter, unless the absentee votes deliver a miracle for him), there were also 23 individual district council elections yesterday in each of Vienna's districts.

SORA says that Strache's party will likely be represented in 16 of these 23 district councils (Beer Party, Left, SÖZ will also be represented in some of the 23).

District councillors earn only 400€ a month, so it is questionable if Strache will take this job.

On the other hand, each district councillor also gets free public transport tickets by the City of Vienna ... :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 12, 2020, 10:03:50 AM
According to the voter streams, 40% of 2015 FPÖ-voters (31%) went into the non-voter category yesterday.

That's worth 12% of turnout-drop ...

To state the obvious, that's an awful lot of votes.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2020, 07:55:36 AM
Absentee ballots in 13/23 Vienna districts have been counted by now and released.

Looks like the count could be finished tonight, or early tomorrow (as planned).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2020, 10:52:05 AM
Unlike the district council elections, which are 23 individual elections, the results for the Vienna city council election will only be released as a whole when all absentee votes are fully counted.

The "Standard" is reporting that apparently the ÖVP and Greens are doing much better in the vast amount of absentee ballots, than projected by "exit pollster" SORA in their Sunday projection that included estimates for these ballots.

And the FPÖ and Strache (and to a small extent the SPÖ) much worse.

The SPÖ could end with 41% overall (SORA's projection incl. absentees was SPÖ 42%).

ÖVP: probably around 21% (!), up from the 19% projected by SORA.

Greens: 15% instead of 14%

FPÖ: 7%, instead of 8%.

NEOS: unchanged at ca. 7.5 to 8%

Strache: 3% (instead of 4%)

---

FPÖ+Strache combined at just 10% :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2020, 12:40:46 PM
Only 1 of the 23 districts in Vienna is still counting absentee ballots (Donaustadt).

Based on the results so far, there's a 90% return/acceptance rate for these absentee ballots.

That would push turnout up to 66% Vienna-wide, about 3% higher than the SORA estimate.

Turnout would then be "only" 9% lower compared to 2015, not 12% lower.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2020, 02:51:26 PM
All votes for the 23 Vienna district council elections are now counted.

That means the vote count for the state election could still come tonight, or early tomorrow.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: mileslunn on October 13, 2020, 04:28:30 PM
I know they only got 2%, but what is the Beer party about?  Is it some joke party or is there something serious about it?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 13, 2020, 04:53:50 PM
Reckon a cake party would have polled better in Vienna. Not one of the great brewing cities, but there are no greater baking ones.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2020, 12:21:30 AM
I know they only got 2%, but what is the Beer party about?  Is it some joke party or is there something serious about it?

The Beer Party is a satirical side project of the rock band „Turbobier“, led by „Dr.“ Marco Pogo (his real name is Dominik Wlazny).

They had like zero campaign money and were only dependent on their band supporters and fans to spread their message + social media.

Considering this, getting 2% without any party structures was a huge achievement.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2020, 12:27:54 AM
During the night, all 382.000 absentee ballots were fully counted and a final result for the state election was released:

https://orf.at/wahl/wien20/ergebnisse

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/GR201/index.html

The FPÖ dropped to 7.1% and Strache to 3.3% - they destroyed themselves in the campaign.

All other parties ended up where the pollsters had them before the election, except the small parties Beer, Left and SÖZ - who outperformed polls - and benefitted from the collapse of the FPÖ & Strache and attracted protest voters.

Final turnout: 65.3% (not as bad as first projected)

The SPÖ will now talk with the Greens and NEOS about a coalition.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2020, 01:12:01 AM
The Wikipedia page has been updated with the (preliminary*) final result:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Viennese_state_election

* preliminary, because they are only certified at next week’s Vienna election commission meeting

The Wiki page also continues a good analysis.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2020, 04:30:39 AM
With the final Vienna result out, there's also some changes in the future Vienna city government:

NEOS will, for the first time, get a government post in the city senate.

Vienna has a city senate (= government) which consists of governing members and members without portfolio. The latter posts are basically useless, these members have no governing power, but get paid a lot. There have been calls to abolish it, but for this the Austrian Constitution needs to be changed as well. It's a clear symbol of Austrian wasteful spending due to Proporz from the old days of SPÖVP dominance.

NEOS (who have always called to abolish these posts without portfolio), have said they will not accept to take such a seat.

NEOS will only accept a governing seat with portfolio, in case of an SPÖ-NEOS government.

There will also be changes to the Austrian Bundesrat, the 2nd chamber of parliament, representing the 9 states.

Vienna has 11 seats in the 61 seat chamber.

After the election, it's:

5 SPÖ (-1)
2 ÖVP (+2)
2 Greens (+1)
1 NEOS (+1)
1 FPÖ (-3)

For the first time in its history, NEOS will get a seat in the Austrian Bundesrat.

The new composition of the Bundesrat will be:

25 ÖVP (+2)
19 SPÖ (-1)
11 FPÖ (-3)
  5 Greens (+1)
  1 NEOS (+1)

The Austrian ÖVP-Green government will have 30/61 seats.

The opposition will have 31/61 seats.

But with NEOS in for the first time, it's 30-30 with NEOS the possible kingmaker.

On the other hand, the Bundesrat chamber can only delay regular laws passed by the Nationalrat, not veto them with a simple majority. For this, it needs a 2/3-majority vote. If the Bundesrat delays a regular new law passed by the Nationalrat, the Nationalrat breaks the delay with a new vote of persistance ... and it becomes law (after the Austrian President signs it).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2020, 04:53:31 AM
A social-liberal SPÖ-NEOS coalition in Vienna to succeed Red-Green is not as unlikely as it sounds.

The SPÖ would get rid of a sometimes uncomfortable partner with the Greens, who often push very bobo-minded, hard-left, environmentalist policies that make the older workingclass SPÖ-base eyeroll.

NEOS would also be much smaller coalition partner, with fewer demands.

The SPÖ could give them the education portfolio, but could reclaim the important traffic portfolio for themselves again, after the Greens had it for years (with polarizing effects for the city).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 14, 2020, 08:28:42 AM
So the SPO slightly improved on their last Vienna result but drop a seat - how does that work?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2020, 08:38:44 AM
So the SPO slightly improved on their last Vienna result but drop a seat - how does that work?

I think you are mixing up the Bundesrat drop with the Vienna city council gain ...

That's a drop of 1 seat in the Austrian Bundesrat, the chamber representing the 9 states. I think the SPÖ lost one seat, because Vienna has 11 of the 61 seats in that chamber and with NEOS getting in, it was impossible for the SPÖ to keep 6 seats - even though they improved their percentage in the election.

In the Vienna city council (100 seats), they gained seats:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 14, 2020, 08:42:32 AM

Women in Vienna between the ages of 16-29 voted:

36% Green
36% SPÖ
11% Beer/Left/SÖZ (all 3 are leftist parties, even Beer)
  9% NEOS
  5% ÖVP
  3% FPÖ
  1% Strache

Wtf I love young Austrian women in Vienna  now :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2020, 08:50:30 AM

Women in Vienna between the ages of 16-29 voted:

36% Green
36% SPÖ
11% Beer/Left/SÖZ (all 3 are leftist parties, even Beer)
  9% NEOS
  5% ÖVP
  3% FPÖ
  1% Strache

Wtf I love young Austrian women in Vienna now :P

Yes, who doesn't ? ;)

They are overwhelmingly represented here:

()

If you want to meet one, go there - on a Friday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2020, 08:53:15 AM
Vienna Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) announced he will start coalition talks with ÖVP, Greens and NEOS next week (he ruled out the FPÖ long before already).

He wants the new coalition to be ready in ca. 1 month.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 14, 2020, 09:02:43 AM
So the SPO slightly improved on their last Vienna result but drop a seat - how does that work?

I think you are mixing up the Bundesrat drop with the Vienna city council gain ...

That's a drop of 1 seat in the Austrian Bundesrat, the chamber representing the 9 states. I think the SPÖ lost one seat, because Vienna has 11 of the 61 seats in that chamber and with NEOS getting in, it was impossible for the SPÖ to keep 6 seats - even though they improved their percentage in the election.

In the Vienna city council (100 seats), they gained seats:

()

I was actually referring to the Bundesrat business, thanks for the explanation :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2020, 01:21:23 AM
After the election, Vienna voters are shifting more and more towards a social-liberal SPÖ-NEOS coalition to replace 10 years of Red-Green.

New „Heute“ poll:

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-umfrage-wiener-am-ehesten-fuer-rot-pink-100107570


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 16, 2020, 08:48:41 AM
()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 17, 2020, 03:38:07 AM
Vienna mayor Michael Ludwig has announced that he and his SPÖ will talk with NEOS first (on Monday), then with the Greens (Tuesday) and finally with the ÖVP on Wednesday.

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/sondierungen-starten-speeddating-mit-michael-ludwig/401068098


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 17, 2020, 03:42:58 AM
New „Unique Research“ poll for Profil magazine:

40% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
13% Greens
13% FPÖ
  9% NEOS
  3% Others

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-spoe-legt-im-bund-zu-gruene-verlieren-und-sind-mit-fpoe-gleichauf/401068350

Unique Research had the best Vienna poll btw ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 19, 2020, 07:47:21 AM
The Vienna election will be certified tomorrow.

Let’s see what the first round of exploration talks between SPÖ and NEOS will bring today.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on October 19, 2020, 08:24:08 AM
Curious: why would they choose NEOS over the Greens?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 19, 2020, 10:32:02 AM
Curious: why would they choose NEOS over the Greens?

In a sense, the Vienna-NEOS are some kind of new, modern, urban ÖVP.

And after 10 years of SPÖ-Green, this coalition is kinda worn out by now and the Greens are often too activist in the coalition, creating controversial headlines aimed at cuddling their hipster base, instead of harmony.

The SPÖ might try something new: NEOS has enormous reform potential, but often not in the naive way some Greens prefer it (integration of foreigners). They are also more willing to tackle political Islam than the Greens are. NEOS is also half the size of the Greens, therefore they’ll only get 1 seat in the new city government, not 2 like the Greens would. And NEOS would not get the important traffic portfolio, which the Greens had and which they’d demand again.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 19, 2020, 11:15:13 AM
()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on October 19, 2020, 11:25:49 AM
Is the dark grey spot right in the middle of Vienna the neighbourhood where all the turbocharged upper BouRgeOisiE whose housing is worth seven digits lives?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 19, 2020, 11:42:56 AM
Is the dark grey spot right in the middle of Vienna the neighbourhood where all the turbocharged upper BouRgeOisiE whose housing is worth seven digits lives?

It’s where they work or where their offices and expensive shops are.

It’s Vienna’s 1st district, where parliament and the stock exchange is.

Similar to the City of London.

The wealthy bourgeoisie is living in the 3 western districts, those coloured more darkly for ÖVP and NEOS.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 19, 2020, 11:51:06 AM
You can also clearly see that Beer hurt the FPÖ & Strache, by attracting protest votes.

(Which is ironic, because Beer is a leftist party - despite joking around all day. They constantly attacked and ridiculed the FPÖ and Strache.)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: palandio on October 19, 2020, 12:23:24 PM
Is the dark grey spot right in the middle of Vienna the neighbourhood where all the turbocharged upper BouRgeOisiE whose housing is worth seven digits lives?

It’s where they work or where their offices and expensive shops are.

It’s Vienna’s 1st district, where parliament and the stock exchange is.

Similar to the City of London.

The wealthy bourgeoisie is living in the 3 western districts, those coloured more darkly for ÖVP and NEOS.
But who are the voters that turn Vienna's 1st district into the ÖVP's strongest place in all of Vienna?

Is it stockbrokers and other yuppies?

Is it the long-established bourgeoisie? (The 1st district has been an ÖVP stronghold in Red Vienna for decades!)

Is it a mix of both? Or other groups? Who are these voters?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 19, 2020, 01:04:11 PM
Is the dark grey spot right in the middle of Vienna the neighbourhood where all the turbocharged upper BouRgeOisiE whose housing is worth seven digits lives?

It’s where they work or where their offices and expensive shops are.

It’s Vienna’s 1st district, where parliament and the stock exchange is.

Similar to the City of London.

The wealthy bourgeoisie is living in the 3 western districts, those coloured more darkly for ÖVP and NEOS.
But who are the voters that turn Vienna's 1st district into the ÖVP's strongest place in all of Vienna?

Is it stockbrokers and other yuppies?

Is it the long-established bourgeoisie? (The 1st district has been an ÖVP stronghold in Red Vienna for decades!)

Is it a mix of both? Or other groups? Who are these voters?

The 1st District only has a population of 15.000, out of 2 million in the city.

It's likely that some owners of property there also have their main residence there, for example the owners of restaurants - but have their fancy mansions in the western districts as a secondary residence. Which means they would be eligible to vote in the 1st district. Other than business owners, there's a lot of older people from the arts and culture living there who made a career (prices are pretty high in the 1st), politicians and diplomats etc.

The "regular" folk lives elsewhere. The Bobos/Hipsters in the districts to the SW of the Inner City, the working class in the South and North and the Wealthy or Upper Middle Class in the West (Vienna doesn't really have an "East").


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 19, 2020, 02:36:46 PM
The Vienna election will be certified tomorrow.

Let’s see what the first round of exploration talks between SPÖ and NEOS will bring today.

The first SPÖ-NEOS talks were „very constructive“:

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3072033/

They lasted for 4 hours, rather than the 3 that were scheduled.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 20, 2020, 04:15:39 AM
The Vienna election will be certified tomorrow.

Let’s see what the first round of exploration talks between SPÖ and NEOS will bring today.

The first SPÖ-NEOS talks were „very constructive“:

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3072033/

They lasted for 4 hours, rather than the 3 that were scheduled.

In a future SPÖ-NEOS coalition, it is very likely that NEOS-leader Christoph Wiederkehr will not become city councillor himself.

It is more likely that the first NEOS government member will be a woman, just like here in Salzburg in the ÖVP-Green-NEOS coalition.

Bettina Emmerling, Vienna-NEOS vice-chair, has a lot more experience on various issues such as city traffic, the environment etc:

()

She was also present at the SPÖ-NEOS negotiations yesterday ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 20, 2020, 05:18:08 AM
Is the dark grey spot right in the middle of Vienna the neighbourhood where all the turbocharged upper BouRgeOisiE whose housing is worth seven digits lives?

It’s where they work or where their offices and expensive shops are.

It’s Vienna’s 1st district, where parliament and the stock exchange is.

Similar to the City of London.

The wealthy bourgeoisie is living in the 3 western districts, those coloured more darkly for ÖVP and NEOS.
But who are the voters that turn Vienna's 1st district into the ÖVP's strongest place in all of Vienna?

Is it stockbrokers and other yuppies?

Is it the long-established bourgeoisie? (The 1st district has been an ÖVP stronghold in Red Vienna for decades!)

Is it a mix of both? Or other groups? Who are these voters?

The 1st District only has a population of 15.000, out of 2 million in the city.

It's likely that some owners of property there also have their main residence there, for example the owners of restaurants - but have their fancy mansions in the western districts as a secondary residence. Which means they would be eligible to vote in the 1st district. Other than business owners, there's a lot of older people from the arts and culture living there who made a career (prices are pretty high in the 1st), politicians and diplomats etc.

The "regular" folk lives elsewhere. The Bobos/Hipsters in the districts to the SW of the Inner City, the working class in the South and North and the Wealthy or Upper Middle Class in the West (Vienna doesn't really have an "East").

And historically, we're talking back during the days of the Empire here, it was an aristocratic district, rather than a bourgeois one. If we take London as a point of comparison, it's the equivalent of forming a borough out of The City and the posher parts of the old City of Westminster; Knightsbridge, Mayfair, St James's and so on. And then building a ring-road around it all.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 20, 2020, 05:29:53 AM
Is the dark grey spot right in the middle of Vienna the neighbourhood where all the turbocharged upper BouRgeOisiE whose housing is worth seven digits lives?

It’s where they work or where their offices and expensive shops are.

It’s Vienna’s 1st district, where parliament and the stock exchange is.

Similar to the City of London.

The wealthy bourgeoisie is living in the 3 western districts, those coloured more darkly for ÖVP and NEOS.
But who are the voters that turn Vienna's 1st district into the ÖVP's strongest place in all of Vienna?

Is it stockbrokers and other yuppies?

Is it the long-established bourgeoisie? (The 1st district has been an ÖVP stronghold in Red Vienna for decades!)

Is it a mix of both? Or other groups? Who are these voters?

The 1st District only has a population of 15.000, out of 2 million in the city.

It's likely that some owners of property there also have their main residence there, for example the owners of restaurants - but have their fancy mansions in the western districts as a secondary residence. Which means they would be eligible to vote in the 1st district. Other than business owners, there's a lot of older people from the arts and culture living there who made a career (prices are pretty high in the 1st), politicians and diplomats etc.

The "regular" folk lives elsewhere. The Bobos/Hipsters in the districts to the SW of the Inner City, the working class in the South and North and the Wealthy or Upper Middle Class in the West (Vienna doesn't really have an "East").

And historically, we're talking back during the days of the Empire here, it was an aristocratic district, rather than a bourgeois one. If we take London as a point of comparison, it's the equivalent of forming a borough out of The City and the posher parts of the old City of Westminster; Knightsbridge, Mayfair, St James's and so on. And then building a ring-road around it all.

Yes, and the 1st District is also much slower to diversify than other districts of Vienna - which have seen an influx of immigrants from all over the World.

The population in the 1st has actually declined a lot over the decades and is pretty stagnant lately, while others are back to their 1900 levels.

While you have people from Africa and the Middle-East and Eastern Europe settle in the 10th and 11th districts and R-5H (where you can still get apartments for 10€ the square meter), you will mostly see upper-middle-class immigrants from Germany, Switzerland or Russia settle in the first, because they can afford to do so (5.000€/squre meter).

And those wealthy immigrants from the EU and Russia etc. are by definition more ÖVP+Green+NEOS voting, instead of SPÖ+FPÖ+Strache ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 20, 2020, 05:50:02 AM
One thing that stood out and hasn't been mentioned so far was the result in Simmering, a 105.000 working-class district in the South.

The FPÖ got almost 45% there in 2015 and for the first time they got a "district mayor" in the district elections held on the same day.

Paul Stadler, then the new FPÖ-"mayor" of the district, proved himself to be a popular, non-controversial, down-to-earth guy who started as a plumber, governing like a Social Democrat would.

The FPÖ did still lose a lot there compared to 2015, but still performed much better than elsewhere in the city. In the district council elections, Stadler and his FPÖ there even received 28.4% - far above the 7.8% for the FPÖ Vienna-wide.

()

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/simmering-ein-arbeiterbezirk-wird-hip/401044852


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on October 20, 2020, 08:55:35 AM
Yes, and the 1st District is also much slower to diversify than other districts of Vienna - which have seen an influx of immigrants from all over the World.

The population in the 1st has actually declined a lot over the decades and is pretty stagnant lately, while others are back to their 1900 levels.

While you have people from Africa and the Middle-East and Eastern Europe settle in the 10th and 11th districts and R-5H (where you can still get apartments for 10€ the square meter), you will mostly see upper-middle-class immigrants from Germany, Switzerland or Russia settle in the first, because they can afford to do so (5.000€/squre meter).

And those wealthy immigrants from the EU and Russia etc. are by definition more ÖVP+Green+NEOS voting, instead of SPÖ+FPÖ+Strache ...

Did you miss some zeroes in the first price you mentioned? You'd be talking about apartments of 100 m² costing less than a small motorcycle lmao

Also, 5000€ per m² sounds pretty low for the poshest and upper-class-est district in all Austria.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 20, 2020, 09:01:20 AM
Yes, and the 1st District is also much slower to diversify than other districts of Vienna - which have seen an influx of immigrants from all over the World.

The population in the 1st has actually declined a lot over the decades and is pretty stagnant lately, while others are back to their 1900 levels.

While you have people from Africa and the Middle-East and Eastern Europe settle in the 10th and 11th districts and R-5H (where you can still get apartments for 10€ the square meter), you will mostly see upper-middle-class immigrants from Germany, Switzerland or Russia settle in the first, because they can afford to do so (5.000€/squre meter).

And those wealthy immigrants from the EU and Russia etc. are by definition more ÖVP+Green+NEOS voting, instead of SPÖ+FPÖ+Strache ...

Did you miss some zeroes in the first price you mentioned? You'd be talking about apartments of 100 m² costing less than a small motorcycle lmao

Also, 5000€ per m² sounds pretty low for the poshest and upper-class-est district in all Austria.

That’s monthly rent prices, not purchase prices.

You can still rent a 100m² apartment for about 1.000€ per month in some of those residential middle-class districts. Purchase prices: ca. 100.000 to 300.000€.

Vienna remains one of the most affordable cities for working-class families. The prices there are only a handful of what they are in Munich, London or Paris.

On the other hand, you are easily spending a few to several thousand €s a month to rent a same-sized luxury apartment in the inner-city. Purchase prices: 1 million € or more.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on October 20, 2020, 09:09:06 AM
Yes, and the 1st District is also much slower to diversify than other districts of Vienna - which have seen an influx of immigrants from all over the World.

The population in the 1st has actually declined a lot over the decades and is pretty stagnant lately, while others are back to their 1900 levels.

While you have people from Africa and the Middle-East and Eastern Europe settle in the 10th and 11th districts and R-5H (where you can still get apartments for 10€ the square meter), you will mostly see upper-middle-class immigrants from Germany, Switzerland or Russia settle in the first, because they can afford to do so (5.000€/squre meter).

And those wealthy immigrants from the EU and Russia etc. are by definition more ÖVP+Green+NEOS voting, instead of SPÖ+FPÖ+Strache ...

Did you miss some zeroes in the first price you mentioned? You'd be talking about apartments of 100 m² costing less than a small motorcycle lmao

Also, 5000€ per m² sounds pretty low for the poshest and upper-class-est district in all Austria.

That’s monthly rent prices, not purchase prices.

You can still rent a 100m² apartment for about 1.000€ per month in some of those residential middle-class districts. Purchase prices: ca. 100.000 to 300.000€.

Vienna remains one of the most affordable cities for working-class families. The prices there are only a handful of what they are in Munich, London or Paris.

On the other hand, you are easily spending a few to several thousand €s a month to rent a same-sized luxury apartment in the inner-city. Purchase prices: 1 million € or more.

Aaaaaaaaah OK

Now it all makes sense. Sorry, I just never talk in terms of rent prices, because it isn't part of my personal life really.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 20, 2020, 09:16:45 AM
When are the "final" final results expected?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: parochial boy on October 20, 2020, 09:30:37 AM
Yes, and the 1st District is also much slower to diversify than other districts of Vienna - which have seen an influx of immigrants from all over the World.

The population in the 1st has actually declined a lot over the decades and is pretty stagnant lately, while others are back to their 1900 levels.

While you have people from Africa and the Middle-East and Eastern Europe settle in the 10th and 11th districts and R-5H (where you can still get apartments for 10€ the square meter), you will mostly see upper-middle-class immigrants from Germany, Switzerland or Russia settle in the first, because they can afford to do so (5.000€/squre meter).

And those wealthy immigrants from the EU and Russia etc. are by definition more ÖVP+Green+NEOS voting, instead of SPÖ+FPÖ+Strache ...

Did you miss some zeroes in the first price you mentioned? You'd be talking about apartments of 100 m² costing less than a small motorcycle lmao

Also, 5000€ per m² sounds pretty low for the poshest and upper-class-est district in all Austria.

That’s monthly rent prices, not purchase prices.

You can still rent a 100m² apartment for about 1.000€ per month in some of those residential middle-class districts. Purchase prices: ca. 100.000 to 300.000€.

Vienna remains one of the most affordable cities for working-class families. The prices there are only a handful of what they are in Munich, London or Paris.

On the other hand, you are easily spending a few to several thousand €s a month to rent a same-sized luxury apartment in the inner-city. Purchase prices: 1 million € or more.

Aaaaaaaaah OK

Now it all makes sense. Sorry, I just never talk in terms of rent prices, because it isn't part of my personal life really.

As a general thing, home ownership rates are much lower, and consequently the number of people renting is much higher, in the German speaking countries than elsewhere. In big cities that is even more the case. So in a city like Vienna, you have around 80-90% of people renting their homes. Which is why people tend there tend to automatically assume prices as meaning rent prices rather than purchase ones.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on October 20, 2020, 09:33:24 AM
Yes, and the 1st District is also much slower to diversify than other districts of Vienna - which have seen an influx of immigrants from all over the World.

The population in the 1st has actually declined a lot over the decades and is pretty stagnant lately, while others are back to their 1900 levels.

While you have people from Africa and the Middle-East and Eastern Europe settle in the 10th and 11th districts and R-5H (where you can still get apartments for 10€ the square meter), you will mostly see upper-middle-class immigrants from Germany, Switzerland or Russia settle in the first, because they can afford to do so (5.000€/squre meter).

And those wealthy immigrants from the EU and Russia etc. are by definition more ÖVP+Green+NEOS voting, instead of SPÖ+FPÖ+Strache ...

Did you miss some zeroes in the first price you mentioned? You'd be talking about apartments of 100 m² costing less than a small motorcycle lmao

Also, 5000€ per m² sounds pretty low for the poshest and upper-class-est district in all Austria.

That’s monthly rent prices, not purchase prices.

You can still rent a 100m² apartment for about 1.000€ per month in some of those residential middle-class districts. Purchase prices: ca. 100.000 to 300.000€.

Vienna remains one of the most affordable cities for working-class families. The prices there are only a handful of what they are in Munich, London or Paris.

On the other hand, you are easily spending a few to several thousand €s a month to rent a same-sized luxury apartment in the inner-city. Purchase prices: 1 million € or more.

Aaaaaaaaah OK

Now it all makes sense. Sorry, I just never talk in terms of rent prices, because it isn't part of my personal life really.

As a general thing, home ownership rates are much lower, and consequently the number of people renting is much higher, in the German speaking countries than elsewhere. In big cities that is even more the case. So in a city like Vienna, you have around 80-90% of people renting their homes. Which is why people tend there tend to automatically assume prices as meaning rent prices rather than purchase ones.

I understand. I remember seeing some graphics about homeownership rates in Europe something like one month ago and there was exactly that but sadly I don't remember any other details.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: parochial boy on October 20, 2020, 09:57:30 AM

I understand. I remember seeing some graphics about homeownership rates in Europe something like one month ago and there was exactly that but sadly I don't remember any other details.

Voilà
()

Seems that it is really the DACH countries and former Easter bloc that stand out. Seems like in the former case it is basically down to there being no particular ideological attachment to "property ownership" and consequentially government policy has never really catered towards it, instead making a bigger effort to ensure that private renters are relatively secure and well protected. I suspect the opposite effect would be in play in post-90's Eastern Europe.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 20, 2020, 09:59:14 AM
Yes, and the 1st District is also much slower to diversify than other districts of Vienna - which have seen an influx of immigrants from all over the World.

The population in the 1st has actually declined a lot over the decades and is pretty stagnant lately, while others are back to their 1900 levels.

While you have people from Africa and the Middle-East and Eastern Europe settle in the 10th and 11th districts and R-5H (where you can still get apartments for 10€ the square meter), you will mostly see upper-middle-class immigrants from Germany, Switzerland or Russia settle in the first, because they can afford to do so (5.000€/squre meter).

And those wealthy immigrants from the EU and Russia etc. are by definition more ÖVP+Green+NEOS voting, instead of SPÖ+FPÖ+Strache ...

Did you miss some zeroes in the first price you mentioned? You'd be talking about apartments of 100 m² costing less than a small motorcycle lmao

Also, 5000€ per m² sounds pretty low for the poshest and upper-class-est district in all Austria.

That’s monthly rent prices, not purchase prices.

You can still rent a 100m² apartment for about 1.000€ per month in some of those residential middle-class districts. Purchase prices: ca. 100.000 to 300.000€.

Vienna remains one of the most affordable cities for working-class families. The prices there are only a handful of what they are in Munich, London or Paris.

On the other hand, you are easily spending a few to several thousand €s a month to rent a same-sized luxury apartment in the inner-city. Purchase prices: 1 million € or more.

Aaaaaaaaah OK

Now it all makes sense. Sorry, I just never talk in terms of rent prices, because it isn't part of my personal life really.

As a general thing, home ownership rates are much lower, and consequently the number of people renting is much higher, in the German speaking countries than elsewhere. In big cities that is even more the case. So in a city like Vienna, you have around 80-90% of people renting their homes. Which is why people tend there tend to automatically assume prices as meaning rent prices rather than purchase ones.

I understand. I remember seeing some graphics about homeownership rates in Europe something like one month ago and there was exactly that but sadly I don't remember any other details.

Most young Austrians cannot even afford to buy a house these days.

The price for the building area + construction costs are between 300.000-600.000€ these days in the outlying suburbs. Prices for building in the suburbs have also increased sharply and for everything to be finished somewhere between 500k to 1 million € for a single family home. Especially in the tourist areas around here, where prices shot up significantly due to wealthy Dutch/Germans buying up the land.

People (or couples) would be indebted for life - unless they have a good inheritance.

Therefore, renting is the preferred option.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on October 20, 2020, 10:02:46 AM
I understand. I remember seeing some graphics about homeownership rates in Europe something like one month ago and there was exactly that but sadly I don't remember any other details.

Voilà
https://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/infographie/print/1fixe/201334_carte_europe.png

Seems that it is really the DACH countries and former Easter bloc that stand out. Seems like in the former case it is basically down to there being no particular ideological attachment to "property ownership" and consequentially government policy has never really catered towards it, instead making a bigger effort to ensure that private renters are relatively secure and well protected. I suspect the opposite effect would be in play in post-90's Eastern Europe.

The graphics I saw also divided private housing tenants and social housing tenants. Do you have anything on that?
(I am pretty sure the UK is especially high on the latter)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 20, 2020, 10:08:53 AM
When are the "final" final results expected?

The official Vienna results have been released today (nothing has changed compared to the „preliminary“ results):

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/GR201/index.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: parochial boy on October 20, 2020, 10:52:12 AM

The graphics I saw also divided private housing tenants and social housing tenants. Do you have anything on that?
(I am pretty sure the UK is especially high on the latter)

Nothing consistent to be honest. This (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/7/73/R%C3%A9partition_de_la_population_en_fonction_des_modalit%C3%A9s_de_jouissance_du_logement%2C_2018_%28en_%25%29_SILC2020-fr.png) seems to suggest one thing; and this (https://politiquedulogement.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/DC_europe_G5.jpg) something rather different when it comes to Social/Subsidied/below-market-price housing. I guess it comes to arguing about what counts or not. That is, between an actual state owned council house; a housing co-operative; co-ownership; privately owned to but government defined "affordable housing"; or just subsidised rent there are quite a few options and I guess you would get different results on which particular model you decided to include or not.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 22, 2020, 01:21:36 AM
After SPÖ-NEOS on Monday, SPÖ-Greens on Tuesday and finally SPÖVP exploration talks yesterday, it’s pretty clear that SPÖVP can be ruled out.

Both sides said they had a „friendly talk“ but with „significant differences“.

Vienna mayor Ludwig and his SPÖ party committee will deliberate early next week and announce later next week if coalition negotiations will be started with the Greens or NEOS.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3072333


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 22, 2020, 08:52:50 AM
When are the "final" final results expected?

The official Vienna results have been released today (nothing has changed compared to the „preliminary“ results):

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/GR201/index.html

Literally not a single vote? That's impressive :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 22, 2020, 11:54:33 AM
When are the "final" final results expected?

The official Vienna results have been released today (nothing has changed compared to the „preliminary“ results):

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/GR201/index.html

Literally not a single vote? That's impressive :)

Certification is usually only a formality here.

Votes are counted and checked on election day already (+ when the postals are counted).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2020, 01:14:34 AM
New OGM poll has the FPÖ dropping and the SPÖ gaining ground after the Vienna election:

()

51% ÖVP-FPÖ
47% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
  2% Others

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-spoe-nach-wien-wahl-im-aufwind-oevp-40-prozent/401077017


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Hnv1 on October 26, 2020, 01:59:30 AM
coalition-building is so long in GER\AUS...it's so ungerman to procrastinate on this


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2020, 02:05:19 AM
coalition-building is so long in GER\AUS...it's so ungerman to procrastinate on this

I only wanted to highlight that the conservative/nationalist ÖVP-FPÖ bloc has dropped to just 51%, the lowest level in a while.

Of course, ÖVP-FPÖ is just as unlikely as SPÖ-Green-NEOS.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2020, 02:10:31 AM
SPÖ-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner, who suffers from Hillaryesque low personal favourable ratings, is going back to her bread job (at least part-time):

()

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/rendi-wagner-als-aerztin-ab-sofort-im-corona-einsatz/401076948

Rendi-Wagner, a professor, doctor and epidemiologist, will perform COVID-tests in Vienna once a week for a charity organisation, besides her political work.

This comes after her mother suffered from COVID and had to be treated at an ICU, but has now left hospital again.

It is really astonishing that Pamela Rendi-Wagner, who would be a poster-child politician with her medical background in this situation, has been so ineffective these last few months and has suffered from such low ratings.

Maybe this will change her image in the public now (the reviews on social media are positive so far).

PRW is like Hermione Granger, but Austria acts like Slytherin.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2020, 02:31:38 AM
In a major attack on workers, the ÖVP-Green government plans to end the so-called "Hacklerregelung" in the coming months.

It's about the pension entry age.

Currently, the general pension entry age is 65 for men and 60 for women.

The Hacklerregelung was introduced ahead of the 2019 election, by a pact of SPÖ+FPÖ, who then had a parliamentary majority.

It allowed workers with at least 45 years of employment (=payments into the Social Security system) to retire at age 62 already without any deductions from their monthly pension.

ÖVP-Greens now want to kill it, because apparently it's too expensive (which is a hoax).

I think this should continue, because for example a construction worker or carpenter who has worked 45 years from age 15 onwards with just brief periods of unemployment in between has every right to retire at 62.

This is not the Greens I voted for ...

Because on the other hand you got university graduates, who only start real work at 25 or 30, rack up a huge pension and retire after 35 years in the job ...

https://www.diepresse.com/5887338/hacklerregelung-fpo-bietet-spo-allianz-an-und-will-sondersitzung


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: PSOL on October 26, 2020, 09:34:37 AM

Oh this definitely is the Greens you’ve voted for. Has the events in France and the widespread documentation of elitism in these parties been unnoticed to you until now?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2020, 09:53:02 AM

Oh this definitely is the Greens you’ve voted for. Has the events in France and the widespread documentation of elitism in these parties been unnoticed to you until now?

The Greens got a lot of loan votes from the Social Dems in the 2019 election, so you could expect the Greens to behave at least a bit more like them in the coalition - and not act just as a rubber stamp for the power-hungry, worker-hating ÖVP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 26, 2020, 10:30:36 AM

It is really astonishing that Pamela Rendi-Wagner, who would be a poster-child politician with her medical background in this situation, has been so ineffective these last few months and has suffered from such low ratings.

Maybe this will change her image in the public now (the reviews on social media are positive so far).

PRW is like Hermione Granger, but Austria acts like Slytherin.

Didn't she get loads of stick from party "grandees" almost as soon as being elected leader?

Sounds sort of familiar......


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2020, 10:36:50 AM
It is really astonishing that Pamela Rendi-Wagner, who would be a poster-child politician with her medical background in this situation, has been so ineffective these last few months and has suffered from such low ratings.

Maybe this will change her image in the public now (the reviews on social media are positive so far).

PRW is like Hermione Granger, but Austria acts like Slytherin.

Didn't she get loads of stick from party "grandees" almost as soon as being elected leader?

Sounds sort of familiar......

Yes, there are a lot of macho-men within the Social Democratic Party, who didn’t get used to a woman being in charge, reminding her every day how they would do things better or different.

On top of that there were also rumours that the ÖVP planted a mole inside the SPÖ, to destroy it from within.

Not sure if she’s in full command of the party yet, but things there (= the constant intrigues) have become far more quiet recently.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: PSOL on October 26, 2020, 04:38:55 PM

Oh this definitely is the Greens you’ve voted for. Has the events in France and the widespread documentation of elitism in these parties been unnoticed to you until now?

The Greens got a lot of loan votes from the Social Dems in the 2019 election, so you could expect the Greens to behave at least a bit more like them in the coalition - and not act just as a rubber stamp for the power-hungry, worker-hating ÖVP.
That’s not how politics work brah, enjoy your Green austerity :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2020, 12:56:02 AM
Vienna mayor Ludwig will announce the SPÖs preferred coalition partner today.

All signs are pointing towards ditching the Greens and an SPÖ-NEOS coalition ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2020, 01:46:21 AM
Vienna mayor Ludwig will announce the SPÖs preferred coalition partner today.

All signs are pointing towards ditching the Greens and an SPÖ-NEOS coalition ...

The new OGM/Kurier poll shows that Austrians, Vienna-voters and SPÖ-voters are all pretty mixed about which coalition should be formed in Vienna.

While all Austrians polled would slightly prefer SPÖ-NEOS, the same is true for SPÖ-voters only.

Vienna-voters would slightly prefer a 3rd term of SPÖ-Greens.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2020, 06:45:28 AM
Now it's official:

Vienna mayor Michael Ludwig and his Social Dems will enter coalition talks with the liberal NEOS.

The mayor just confirmed it in a press statement.

This would be the 1st Social-Liberal coalition in Austria.

https://orf.at/stories/3186892


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 07, 2020, 04:59:27 AM
FPÖ rising a bit after the Vienna terror attack (new "Profil" magazine poll conducted this week):

38% ÖVP (-2)
21% SPÖ (-1)
16% FPÖ (+3)
12% Greens (-1)
10% NEOS (+1)
  3% Others

Opinion on "Lockdown 2.0", which started on Tuesday:

  8% - the measures are not strict enough
55% - the measures for the 2nd lockdown are just right
33% - the measures are overblown
  4% - undecided

42% - say the ÖVP-Green government has lost control over the pandemic in Austria
54% - don't think so
  4% - are undecided

51% - say the situation right now is more critical than in March/April
23% - say it's similar
19% - less critical
  7% - are undecided

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-55-bewerten-die-ausgangsbeschraenkungen-als-angemessen/401089926


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 07, 2020, 05:03:18 AM
This new "Profil" poll is almost identical to the 2019 federal election results.

The ÖVP has lost 10% of their March/April Corona-lockdown bonus (they polled at 48% then).

The SPÖ has gained 5%.

The FPÖ, who dropped back to 11% then, is now recovering after the terror attack.

The Greens have fallen behind (junior coalition partner syndrome).

NEOS steadily increasing at a low level.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 07, 2020, 01:02:57 PM
Chancellor Kurz meets the President of Belarus:



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: rob in cal on November 10, 2020, 03:32:20 PM
Tender, the SPO FPO alliance on the pension issue is fascinating, reminds me of the SPO FPO Burgenland coalition of a few years ago. If the FPO could ever clean up its act, the SPO move toward them on immigration to a significant level, and both parties do better in the next election, like win a combined majority, what an interesting spectacle that would be. Probably not realistic for any three scenarios to happen.

Concerning the Greens, it does make sense that sooner or later their wealthier, non-blue collar worker type electorate is going to show itself in terms of policy.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Vaccinated Russian Bear on November 11, 2020, 12:01:39 PM


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 15, 2020, 11:51:47 AM
SPÖ-NEOS coalition talks in Vienna have come to a successful conclusion after 35 rounds of talks.

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/rot-pink-in-wien-verhandlungen-erfolgreich-abgeschlossen/401098263

Details will be presented tomorrow and both party committees will sign off the first Social-Liberal coalition in Austria ever on Tuesday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on November 15, 2020, 07:02:08 PM
SPÖ-NEOS coalition talks in Vienna have come to a successful conclusion after 35 rounds of talks.

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/rot-pink-in-wien-verhandlungen-erfolgreich-abgeschlossen/401098263

Details will be presented tomorrow and both party committees will sign off the first Social-Liberal coalition in Austria ever on Tuesday.

More enhanced social liberalism everywhere then.

Which is not exactly surprising in a large Western city in 2020, of course.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 23, 2020, 06:30:54 AM
The new SPÖ-NEOS government in Vienna will be sworn in tomorrow.

There's also a new poll out by OGM for the "Kurier", which shows that 70% of Vienna voters either welcome or accept the new city government, while 28% are either sceptical or opposed:

()

In terms of current vote choice, not much has changed since the election a month ago. SPÖ and NEOS seem to get a few extra points though:

()

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/ogm-umfrage-wie-die-wiener-die-neue-koalition-sehen/401105460


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 24, 2020, 04:22:46 AM
The new SPÖ-NEOS government in Vienna will be sworn in tomorrow.

Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) re-elected with 60 of 100 votes.

This means he also got 6 votes from opposition parties, because SPÖ-NEOS only have 54/100.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3077291


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 24, 2020, 08:17:08 AM
The new SPÖ-NEOS government in Vienna will be sworn in tomorrow.

Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) re-elected with 60 of 100 votes.

This means he also got 6 votes from opposition parties, because SPÖ-NEOS only have 54/100.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3077291

Do we know who these were?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 24, 2020, 08:45:33 AM
The new SPÖ-NEOS government in Vienna will be sworn in tomorrow.

Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) re-elected with 60 of 100 votes.

This means he also got 6 votes from opposition parties, because SPÖ-NEOS only have 54/100.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3077291

Do we know who these were?

No, it was a secret vote.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 24, 2020, 10:02:33 AM
Ah, spoilsports.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 04, 2020, 08:59:35 AM
Karl-Heinz Grasser

The „darling“ of former ÖVP-Chancellor Schüssel, favourite son-in-law of older women voters and former Finance Minister of Austria, has finally been sentenced to 8 years in prison for corruption after 16 years of trials ...

Quote
A court in Vienna convicted the former Austrian finance minister, Karl-Heinz Grasser, of corruption and abuse of power on Friday.

The husband of the heir to the Swarovski empire was sentenced to eight years in prison.

The verdict — for one of several scandals in Austrian politics — came at the end of a three-year-long trial which also included 14 other defendants. One of the co-defendants, and a close friend of Grasser, admitted during the trial to passing on inside information.

()

The court's verdict found the former lawmaker guilty of providing insider information to a private investor ahead of the sale of 60,000 residences by the Austrian government in 2004.

'Crime of unbelievable proportions'

Grasser informed his partner of the minimum amount necessary for a sale, allowing the buyer to just slightly outbid the competition and secure the purchase. The consortium valued their new properties at double that price just three years later.

For his part, Grasser pocketed around €9.6 million ($11.67 million) — equivalent to 1% of the €961 million sale price.

https://www.dw.com/en/austria-ex-finance-minister-found-guilty-of-corruption/a-55819493

My mom used to say: „Grasser will never be sentenced to prison, he’s so smart that he’ll always find a way out.“

Until today, when judge Marion Hohenecker finally sentenced him ...

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 05, 2020, 02:42:26 AM
New "Market" poll for the "Standard":

39% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
14% Greens
14% FPÖ
  8% NEOS
  2% Others

Austrians are also more optimistic (39%) about the future again than pessimistic (32%).

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000122241783/optimismus-nimmt-zu-zustimmung-zu-kurz-nimmt-ab


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 05, 2020, 07:41:27 AM
SPO edging up again?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 05, 2020, 08:31:31 AM

Hard to tell ... the next state election will only be in 10 months, but it's an important one in Upper Austria. This will be a good indicator to see if voters still trust Kurz and to what extent the opposition parties are gaining ground.

On the other hand it's a state election dominated by the great result of the FPÖ in 2015, right after the immigrant invasion from the Middle-East/Africa.

Like in Vienna, Upper Austria could result in only the FPÖ dropping massively, while all other parties will gain, leaving us clueless about actual trends ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 08, 2020, 12:21:48 PM
New "Profil" poll:

40% ÖVP
20% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
13% Greens
10% NEOS
  2% Others

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-tuerkis-gruene-regierung-mit-stabiler-mehrheit/401120226


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 11, 2020, 12:24:22 PM
Constituational Court ruled that:

* assisted suicide must become legal on Jan. 1, 2022 (parliament has until then to safeguard that there's no abuse)

* the headscarf ban introduced in elementary schools is illegal and must be undone

https://orf.at/stories/3193339/

https://www.thelocal.at/20201211/austria-rules-primary-school-headscarf-ban-unconstitutional


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 13, 2020, 01:58:35 AM
New „ATV“ Trend poll:

39% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
16% FPÖ
13% Greens
  9% NEOS

55% of voters approve of the ÖVP-Green government, 42% disapprove.

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/oesterreich-trend-zeigt-geringe-impfbereitschaft/221933


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 18, 2020, 11:05:16 AM
Contrary to recent federal election trends and results, there are 3 states where the Social Dems still do very well (Vienna, Carinthia and Burgenland).

There's a new Burgenland poll by Hajek POS for the "BVZ" newspaper out and the SPÖ there is back up above 50%:

()

There's also a new Vienna poll by Unique Research for the "Heute" newspaper, showing only modest changes compared to the state election 2 months ago:

()

Still, the SPÖ and NEOS are doing better there after their government formation ("honeymoon").


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 19, 2020, 01:02:31 AM
Health Minister Rudy Anschober (Green Party) is revamping the Ministry.

Since yesterday, Austria has a Director of Public Health („Chief Medical Officer“) again, which was abolished by the conservative-nationalist ÖVP-FPÖ government.

()

Quote
Katharina Reich becomes director for public health

by Johanna Hager

The Ministry of Health is repositioning itself - Ulrich Herzog will take over consumer agendas.

The sections (administrative units) in the ministry are being turned inside out. The management of three of the seven sections were put out to tender. These are Section III (Consumer Policy), Section VI (Human Medicine Law) and Section VII (Public Health).

General Director for Public Health ("Chief Medical Officer") - a position held by Pamela Rendi-Wagner and abolished under the ÖVP-FPÖ government - will be Katharina Reich.

Katharina Reich (42) received her doctorate from the Medical University of Vienna in 2003. Reich completed her cycle in the hospital of the Barmherzigen Brüder in Vienna. The trained emergency doctor worked as a ward doctor, hygiene officer and in the staff position of the Medical Directorate for patient safety and clinical risk management. Most recently, Reich worked at the Hietzing Hospital.

As the new director for public health, Reich wants the Supreme Sanitary Council to be convened again, paying special attention to mental health. "It can never be bad to take responsibility as a person and as a doctor. I can take responsibility for the 'Austrian patient'", Reich explains her motivation.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/live-wer-wird-chief-medical-officer-der-republik/401133660


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 19, 2020, 04:16:03 AM
The next state election coming up here will be in Upper Austria in late September.

()

Upper Austria is the 3rd largest state with 1.5 million people (behind Vienna and Lower Austria).

The capital is Linz, famous for the Kepler University and steel and metal producing industry.

While Linz is a Social Democratic stronghold, the remainder of the state is rural agricultural in the North and touristy mountainous in the South.

On the federal level, Upper Austria is a so-called "bellwether" or "show me" state similar to MO and OH about 20-30 years ago, voting like Austria as a whole.

On the state level, it's ÖVP-dominated because the rural areas outweigh the urban and suburban areas.

The state also reflects Austria pretty well demographically and economically.

The last state election was in 2015, just around the time when 1 million immigrants from the Middle-East streamed into Austria, or through to Germany (via Upper Austria).

The result back then was:

36.4% ÖVP
30.4% FPÖ
18.4% SPÖ
10.3% Greens
  3.5% NEOS
  0.8% KPÖ
  0.4% CPÖ

Turnout: 82%

The state is the only one with a 6-year term, the other states all have 5-year terms.

Upper Austria is also one of 3 states remaining with the so-called "Proporz"-system, where every party above 10% or so is automatically represented in the next government with at least 1 seat. In all other states, there are coalition governments.

Currently, ÖVP-FPÖ have a so-called "working agreement" in the state, which is a coalition in all-but-name, but of course within the Proporz system.

The current polls are like this:

40-46% ÖVP
20-26% FPÖ
14-20% SPÖ
10-16% Greens
    2-5% NEOS

So, the ÖVP (after slumping to a historic low in 2015) is back to normal historic levels, while the FPÖ drops 4-10%, but still remains above 20% - which is pretty good for them right now. In fact, it would be their best state branch result after the implosion of the ÖVP-FPÖ government on the federal level due to the "Ibiza"-scandal by Strache and Gudenus.

This has a lot to do with the person of Manfred Haimbuchner, the FPÖ-leader there, who's seen as being quite popular there. A moderate Elon Musk/Eric Cartman-lookalike within the FPÖ, who seldomly talks controversial topics and who's more like a CSU-style politician similar to nearby Bavaria. Upper Austria also has a large blue-collar workforce due to the above-mentioned steel and metal industry.

()

The governor of Upper Austria - Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP) - is finishing out his first 6-year term, after succeeding the former ÖVP-governor of more than 20 years.

()
Stelzer: center, and his 2 Vice-Governors

His approval ratings are sky-high at 70-80% and even FPÖ-Haimbuchner's approval ratings are 15 points in the positive, according to the latest Spectra/OÖN poll from November. This is unusually high for an FPÖ politician, who are usually all in negative territory in the general population. But it explains why the FPÖ is doing very well there. Obviously, Hitler was from the state too, but nowadays this has nothing to do with it really.

On the Green side, former party leader Rudolf Anschober became the new Austrian Health Minister and Austrian MP Stefan Kaineder (some kind of Marshall Eriksen-lookalike) took over:

()

The SPÖ candidate is pretty mediocre and newish, which means still quite unknown to the public (but older herself). A feature she shares with other SPÖ-leaders in 6 Austrian states, where the SPÖ underperforms.

()

NEOS has no frontrunner yet and might struggle again to pass the 4% threshold ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 20, 2020, 12:32:07 AM
New OGM poll for the „Kurier“ newspaper, after one year of ÖVP-Green:

()

By a 62-36 margin, voters approve of the job the Conserva-Green government has done this year.

And 40% say they have found the right balance in dealing with personal rights infringement during Covid, while 29% say personal freedom was too heavily infringed and 27% who say it wasn’t infringed enough.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 22, 2020, 01:57:19 PM
New poll for my state - Salzburg - by GMK for the weekly Bezirksblätter newspaper:

45% ÖVP (+7.2% compared to the 2018 election)
16% FPÖ (-7.4%)
15% SPÖ (-5.0%)
13% Greens (+3.7%)
  8% NEOS (+0.7%)
  3% Others (+0.8%)

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens-NEOS.

The next state election will be in 2023.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 23, 2020, 12:38:29 AM
A new Tyrol poll by IMAD for the „Kronen Zeitung“:

()

Pretty similar to the Salzburg poll.

The current government there is ÖVP-Green and the next state election also in 2023.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 25, 2020, 05:20:45 AM
Even though the 2022 Presidential election is far away, there's a first ATV poll:

50% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greendependent, incumbent)
17% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  2% Other candidates
  2% Would vote invalid
  6% Wouldn't vote
23% Undecided

https://www.atv.at/atv-aktuell-die-woche/folge-97/d3217320/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2020, 03:34:00 AM
Year-end "Market" poll for the "Standard" newspaper (Dec. 17-21, n=809):

39% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
14% Greens
13% FPÖ
  9% NEOS

Market also asked voters if they perceive each party to be "better off" or "worse off" in their own opinion, compared to the 2019 election:

Only NEOS is seen better off in the eyes of those polled since election day 2019, by a 42-38 margin.

The ÖVP situation is odd: the party gained from 37.5% in the election to 39% now in the poll, but by a 31-53 margin, voters see the party worse off since election day ... One explanation could be the "Kurz" Chancellor factor: While voters increasingly see the party in a negative light, Kurz bails the party out because of his popularity with rural, older voters.

The FPÖ is even 10-76 in the dumpster.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000122792735/corona-krise-beschert-politik-schlechte-noten


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 28, 2020, 04:01:26 AM
Year-end Tyrol poll by "GMK" for the weekly "Bezirksblätter" newspaper:

52% ÖVP (+7.7% compared to the 2018 election)
15% Greens (+4.3%)
10% FPÖ (-5.5%)
  9% SPÖ (-8.3%)
  8% NEOS (+2.8%)
  4% Fritz (-1.5%)
  2% Others (+0.5%)

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens, just like in Austria as well.

Quote
Zur Umfrage

Auftraggeber: Bezirksblätter Tirol GmbH
Ausführende Gesellschaft: GMK Research & Consulting
Abfragezeitraum: 11.12. bis 16.12.2020
Sample und Instrument: 400 Telefoninterviews
Maximale Schwankungsbreite: Gesamtergebnis ±5 Prozent

https://www.meinbezirk.at/tirol/c-politik/bezirkskblaetter-umfrage-absolute-fuer-platter-oevp_a4413174


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 28, 2020, 07:35:15 AM
Even though the 2022 Presidential election is far away, there's a first ATV poll:

50% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greendependent, incumbent)
17% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

That's a bit different from the last election they contested.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 29, 2020, 01:20:35 AM
3rd Tyrol poll in a row, for the „TT“ newspaper:

()

https://www.tt.com/artikel/17686532/tt-umfrage-platters-oevp-trotzt-gegenwind-vormacht-mit-abschlaegen


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 29, 2020, 06:48:04 AM
That's a bit better for the SPO than the previous one?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 29, 2020, 07:42:43 AM
That's a bit better for the SPO than the previous one?

Better but still abysmal.

The ÖVP is now even attracting former SPÖ voters in rural areas, or new voters who would have voted SPÖ a few decades ago.

But those people now increasingly have white collar jobs instead of blue collar jobs and that’s why the SPÖ is declining everywhere in rural areas.

And the people with more precarious jobs are not voting SPÖ either any longer, but FPÖ.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 29, 2020, 11:01:43 AM
In other news, the Team Strache has fallen apart:

https://www.krone.at/2296442

The "Profil" magazine has a political obituary calling Strache a "tragic figure":

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/heinz-christian-strache-charakter-und-lebensweg-einer-tragischen-figur/401140917

That of course means the FPÖ was right all along during the Vienna campaign when they said they will always be "the original" and "outlive" Strache ... (of course they got decimated as well).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 30, 2020, 03:34:29 AM
There's a regular municipal election coming up on Jan. 24th in St. Pölten (capital of Lower Austria).

()

The capital historically votes on a different date than the other 570 or so towns in the state.

The last election in 2016 (before Kurz), had the following results:

59% SPÖ (+2)
20% ÖVP (-5)
15% FPÖ (+4)
  3% Greens (-2)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  1% Others (-1)

This time, SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and KPÖ will run.

47.000 people are eligible to vote. Turnout was 64% in 2016.

This time, I would assume that the SPÖ loses 2-6%, the ÖVP gains the same amount, the FPÖ drops well below 10% and Greens and NEOS gain ground moderately.

Historical results (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergebnisse_der_Gemeinderatswahlen_in_St._P%C3%B6lten)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 30, 2020, 08:53:00 AM
That's a bit better for the SPO than the previous one?

Better but still abysmal.

The ÖVP is now even attracting former SPÖ voters in rural areas, or new voters who would have voted SPÖ a few decades ago.

But those people now increasingly have white collar jobs instead of blue collar jobs and that’s why the SPÖ is declining everywhere in rural areas.

And the people with more precarious jobs are not voting SPÖ either any longer, but FPÖ.

Though tbf isn't Tyrol a long term OVP stronghold anyway?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 31, 2020, 04:34:42 AM
Vienna Green Party leader Birgit Hebein has - not unsurprisingly - announced her retirement as party leader, effective this coming January.

()

She lost backing within the party after failing to enter a coalition again with the SPÖ after the Vienna election in October (she was also controversial before that already as well).

The most likely successors of Hebein will be Judith Pühringer and Peter Kraus, or both -> as a Doppelspitze.

()     ()

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000122848645/birgitt-hebein-tritt-im-jaenner-als-vorsitzende-der-wiener-gruenen


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten municipal election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 04, 2021, 06:47:37 AM
Given Kurz is young, has he given how long he wants to stay in post? Is he making moves that he wants to stay literally until he has to be dragged out, or does he want to step up e.g. at the EU level?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten municipal election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2021, 07:32:25 AM
Given Kurz is young, has he given how long he wants to stay in post? Is he making moves that he wants to stay literally until he has to be dragged out, or does he want to step up e.g. at the EU level?

He has not really said much about it.

Time will tell.

But he's no Trump, who needs to be dragged out of office ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten municipal election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2021, 11:52:03 AM
Burgenland Governor Hans-Peter Doskozil (SPÖ) once again needs a complicated surgery in his throat in Leipzig, Germany and will be out of work for a few months. Despite rumours from political enemies, „Dosko“ went on Facebook and said it was not Laryngeal cancer but something complicated involving his vocal cords, which left him almost speechless during the last few years. He still won the last state election with an absolute majority for the SPÖ and an increase of 8%.

()

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/burgenlands-landeshauptmann-doskozil-muss-erneut-operiert-werden/401146785

This means that Astrid Eisenkopf, also SPÖ, (in English: Astrid Ironhead) will become acting Governor of Burgenland. Eisenkopf is 36 and lost her husband to cancer 3 years ago.

()

https://www.news.at/a/interview-astrid-eisenkopf-frau-hans-peter-doskozil-11342708


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 09, 2021, 12:15:57 PM
Christine Aschbacher (37, ÖVP) - Austrian Minister for Labour/Families/Youth - is under heavy pressure to resign after a „plagiarism hunter“ found out that about 20% of her doctorate work is plagiarized.

()

SPÖ, FPÖ & NEOS want her to resign, ÖVP & Greens are silent so far.

https://orf.at/stories/3196661


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 09, 2021, 03:35:30 PM
Christine Aschbacher (37, ÖVP) - Austrian Minister for Labour/Families/Youth - is under heavy pressure to resign after a „plagiarism hunter“ found out that about 20% of her doctorate work is plagiarized.

()

SPÖ, FPÖ & NEOS want her to resign, ÖVP & Greens are silent so far.

https://orf.at/stories/3196661

Aaaand ... she has stepped down:

https://orf.at/stories/3196689


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 10, 2021, 01:40:15 AM
Austrian minister resigns amid thesis plagiarism scandal

Quote
Austrian minister Christine Aschbacher resigned from her cabinet post in charge of labour, families and youth on Saturday following allegations that some of her university work was plagiarised.

A Conservative from chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s ÖVP party, Aschbacher said she had stepped down to “protect my family”, complaining of “hostility, political agitation and attacks … with unbearable force”.

Aschbacher’s 2006 masters thesis displayed “plagiarism, incorrect quotations and lack of knowledge of the German language”, alleged blogger Stefan Weber, who specialises in sniffing out academic fraud.

At the time, she graduated with high marks from the University of Applied Sciences in Wiener Neustadt, south of the capital Vienna.

Weber has levelled the same allegations at a thesis she submitted in May last year – in the depths of the first wave of coronavirus – to the Technical University of Bratislava in neighbouring Slovakia.

He claimed the work contained “never-before-seen depths of gobbledegook, nonsense and plagiarism” and that more than one-fifth of the text had been lifted from other sources without citations, in particular an article from Forbes magazine.

Under attack by the opposition, Aschbacher “rejected” what she called Weber’s “insinuations”.

Kurz wrote on Twitter that he “respected” her decision to resign, after the scandal piled pressure on a government facing criticism for its management of the second wave of Covid-19, widely seen as chaotic. The chancellor added that he would name a successor on Monday.

Academic plagiarism is a regular charge levelled at politicians in the German-speaking world, where leaders often brandish postgraduate qualifications.

In Germany, two Conservatives, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Annett Schavan, stepped down from the defence and education ministries in 2011 and 2013 over similar scandals, while the current centre-left families minister, Franziska Giffey, has been dogged by plagiarism allegations for years.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/austrian-minister-resigns-amid-plagiarism-scandal


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 10, 2021, 07:32:03 AM
Martin Kocher (Univ.-Prof. Mag. Dr.), head of the economic think tank IHS, will succeed Aschbacher as Labour Minister.

()

Kocher is a well-known expert on labour market and economic issues, non-partisan and accepted by all parties. Solid choice.

The family and youth portfolios will be transferred to Integration and Women Minister Susanne Raab.

He already has an appointment with President Van der Bellen today for a first personal meeting and will already be sworn in tomorrow.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Kocher

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Advanced_Studies_(Vienna)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 10, 2021, 08:39:09 AM
Christine Aschbacher (37, ÖVP) - Austrian Minister for Labour/Families/Youth - is under heavy pressure to resign after a „plagiarism hunter“ found out that about 20% of her doctorate work is plagiarized.

()

SPÖ, FPÖ & NEOS want her to resign, ÖVP & Greens are silent so far.

https://orf.at/stories/3196661

I suppose the cynical response here might be "only 20%?" ;)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 12, 2021, 01:47:51 PM
The SPÖ is heading for a huge victory in St. Pölten (Public Opinion Strategies poll for the NÖN newspaper):

()

https://www.noen.at/st-poelten/exklusiv-umfrage-noen-umfrage-stadler-vor-klarem-sieg-in-st-poelten-st-poelten-niederoesterreich-redaktionsfeed-gemeinderatswahl-2021-matthias-stadler-redaktion-242192586


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 12, 2021, 02:30:35 PM
Kathrin Glock, owner of the Austrian firearms producer, has been questioned today at the Ibiza investigation committee of the Austrian parliament in Glock's involvement in the scandal.

()

First, Kathrin Glock didn't want to appear in front of the investigation committee, but then parliament forced her to appear.

()

She didn't really have any meaningful to say and managed to wind herself out of the tricky questions, by saying "I won't answer this and I won't answer that and the state prosecution has found no links between Glock and financing the far-right FPÖ."

Still, everyone knows that the Glocks are affiliated with the FPÖ and there might have been money flows in return for posts: Transport Minister Norbert Hofer made Kathrin Glock a board member of Austrocontrol, the aviation regulation body, during his term.

https://orf.at/stories/3197039


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 13, 2021, 12:58:26 PM
Kathrin Glock has been removed from the board of Austrocontrol today by the Green Transport Minister Leonore Gewessler, because of "misdemeanor and obstruction against parliament and the investigation committee".

Glock said she quit herself 5 minutes before she would have been ousted ...

https://kurier.at/wirtschaft/gewessler-beruft-kathrin-glock-als-austro-control-aufsichtsraetin-ab/401154465

Glock was replaced by an aide of Gewessler, Judith Engel.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2021, 08:54:09 AM
APA/OGM „Trust Index“ of major Austrian politicians (conducted the last few days):

Balance of „I have trust in this politician“ minus „I have no trust in this politician“.

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) has gone from about balanced to -5 in 2016 during his Presidential run to about -50 now.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 16, 2021, 05:50:38 AM
New monthly "Profil" magazine poll:

37% ÖVP (-3)
22% SPÖ (+2)
16% FPÖ (+1)
14% Greens (+1)
10% NEOS (n.c.)
  1% Others (-1)

Quote
Rest auf 100%: Andere/k. A., Methode: Online-Befragung , Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren, Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: 3,5 Prozentpunkte, Sample: n = 800 Befragte, Feldarbeit: 11. bis 14. Jänner 2021

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20210116_OTS0011/profil-sonntagsfrage-oevp-verliert-spoe-gruene-und-fpoe-legen-zu


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 23, 2021, 01:18:51 AM
Sankt Pölten municipal election tomorrow:

More than 1/3rd of all eligible voters have already voted early in containers in front of city hall, or by post.

If turnout is around 60% tomorrow, that would be more than every second voter.

Polls close at 5pm tomorrow and a final result is expected about 3 hours later.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2021, 10:55:41 AM
There's a regular municipal election coming up on Jan. 24th in St. Pölten (capital of Lower Austria).

()

The capital historically votes on a different date than the other 570 or so towns in the state.

The last election in 2016 (before Kurz), had the following results:

59% SPÖ (+2)
20% ÖVP (-5)
15% FPÖ (+4)
  3% Greens (-2)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  1% Others (-1)

This time, SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and KPÖ will run.

47.000 people are eligible to vote. Turnout was 64% in 2016.

This time, I would assume that the SPÖ loses 2-6%, the ÖVP gains the same amount, the FPÖ drops well below 10% and Greens and NEOS gain ground moderately.

Historical results (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergebnisse_der_Gemeinderatswahlen_in_St._P%C3%B6lten)

()

Polls are now closing and votes being counted.

This should take ca. 2-3 hours.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on January 24, 2021, 12:07:18 PM
There's a regular municipal election coming up on Jan. 24th in St. Pölten (capital of Lower Austria).

The capital historically votes on a different date than the other 570 or so towns in the state.

The last election in 2016 (before Kurz), had the following results:

59% SPÖ (+2)
20% ÖVP (-5)
15% FPÖ (+4)
  3% Greens (-2)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  1% Others (-1)

This time, SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and KPÖ will run.

47.000 people are eligible to vote. Turnout was 64% in 2016.

This time, I would assume that the SPÖ loses 2-6%, the ÖVP gains the same amount, the FPÖ drops well below 10% and Greens and NEOS gain ground moderately.

Historical results (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergebnisse_der_Gemeinderatswahlen_in_St._P%C3%B6lten)

[image]

Polls are now closing and votes being counted.

This should take ca. 2-3 hours.

How did the KPÖ make the ballot again after missing the previous three municipal elections in St. Pölten (and that after a long progressive decline in vote share in the elections before), according to the German Wikipedia page you linked to?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Vienna state election (Oct. 11, 2020)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2021, 01:17:47 PM
There's a regular municipal election coming up on Jan. 24th in St. Pölten (capital of Lower Austria).

The capital historically votes on a different date than the other 570 or so towns in the state.

The last election in 2016 (before Kurz), had the following results:

59% SPÖ (+2)
20% ÖVP (-5)
15% FPÖ (+4)
  3% Greens (-2)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  1% Others (-1)

This time, SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and KPÖ will run.

47.000 people are eligible to vote. Turnout was 64% in 2016.

This time, I would assume that the SPÖ loses 2-6%, the ÖVP gains the same amount, the FPÖ drops well below 10% and Greens and NEOS gain ground moderately.

Historical results (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergebnisse_der_Gemeinderatswahlen_in_St._P%C3%B6lten)

[image]

Polls are now closing and votes being counted.

This should take ca. 2-3 hours.

How did the KPÖ make the ballot again after missing the previous three municipal elections in St. Pölten (and that after a long progressive decline in vote share in the elections before), according to the German Wikipedia page you linked to?

By collecting 84 signatures from voters to appear on the ballot.

Not sure why they didn’t run in the past 20 years, maybe because of financial reasons or something.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2021, 01:19:17 PM
St. Pölten result:

Quote
Bürgermeister Matthias Stadler – SPÖ (Kurzbezeichnung - SPÖ)
14.455 Stimmen, das sind 56,04%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: -2,96%, 25 Mandate (-1)

Volkspartei St. Pölten – Liste Matthias Adl (Kurzbezeichnung - ÖVP)
5.863 Stimmen, das sind 22,73%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: +2,46%, 10 Mandate (+1)

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (Kurzbezeichnung - FPÖ)
2.298 Stimmen, das sind 8,91%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: -5,79%, 3 Mandate (-3)

Die Grünen St. Pölten – (Kurzbezeichnung - Grüne)
2.067 Stimmen, das sind 8,01%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: +5,27%, 3 Mandate (+2)

NEOS Das Neue Österreich (Kurzbezeichnung - NEOS)
824 Stimmen, das sind 3,19%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: +1,62%, 1 Mandat (+1)

KPÖ plus (Kurzbezeichnung – KPÖ)
288 Stimmen, das sind 1,12%.

Stadträte: SPÖ: 8, ÖVP: 3, FPÖ: 1 (-1), Grüne: 1 (+1)

Turnout:

55.96% (- 7.66%)

https://www.st-poelten.at/news/16056-st-poelten-hat-gewaehlt


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2021, 01:27:08 PM
The results were about what I expected ...

Despite 56% for the SPÖ, this is actually their worst result since 1972.

Best result for the Greens ever.

Best result for the KPÖ since 1986.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2021, 01:33:23 PM
On 28 February, the Carinthia municipal elections take place.

Those will be a lot more interesting, because it’s a statewide election and will serve as a better indicator for any federal trend (if there even is one).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on January 24, 2021, 04:24:58 PM
The results were about what I expected ...

Despite 56% for the SPÖ, this is actually their worst result since 1972.

Best result for the Greens ever.

Best result for the KPÖ since 1986.

That's surprising, although given that it's a very meager 1.12% of the vote, it tells you more about the dire straits in which the party has been for many, many years than anything.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: parochial boy on January 24, 2021, 04:39:03 PM
The results were about what I expected ...

Despite 56% for the SPÖ, this is actually their worst result since 1972.

Best result for the Greens ever.

Best result for the KPÖ since 1986.

That's surprising, although given that it's a very meager 1.12% of the vote, it tells you more about the dire straits in which the party has been for many, many years than anything.

Not sure I'd even call it dire straights in this day and age to be honest. They're a regional party who are relevant in Graz, and a footnote everywhere else


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2021, 11:44:38 AM
The results were about what I expected ...

Despite 56% for the SPÖ, this is actually their worst result since 1972.

Best result for the Greens ever.

Best result for the KPÖ since 1986.

That's surprising, although given that it's a very meager 1.12% of the vote, it tells you more about the dire straits in which the party has been for many, many years than anything.

The Communists don’t serve any purpose outside Graz and Styria.

There’s also no place or appeal for them really.

The Graz and Styria phenomenon is not based on Communist ideology, but on good work by those leading the party there and as a protest against the SPÖ.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - St. Pölten city election (Jan. 24, 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2021, 12:30:27 PM
New „Triple M“ / W24 poll for Vienna:

44% SPÖ (+2)
18% ÖVP (-2)
12% Greens (-3)
12% FPÖ (+5)
  9% NEOS (+2)
  5% Others (-4)

The SPÖ-NEOS government is gaining ground since the October election.

The FPÖ too (ex-Strache Party voters), while the ÖVP & Greens are down.

https://www.ots.at/a/PDF_20210124_OTS0020_0


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2021, 03:40:39 PM
Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ-leader) is suddenly gaining in popularity ...

After being among the worst-rated politicians in the country for years, with favourables similar to Hillary Clinton and only topped by FPÖs Hofer and Kickl.

()

https://www.heute.at/s/kurz-anschober-ueberraschende-wende-in-barometer-100124308

We’ll need to wait & see if this will last, but it seems her competency as a doctor for infectious diseases is now paying off somehow and the party (riddled by intrigues before) seems to have accustomed to her.

IMO, she’s very underrated and would make a great Chancellor.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 28, 2021, 01:11:00 PM
Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2021, 09:24:27 AM
Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.
Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 30, 2021, 02:08:58 PM
Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.
Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?

Nobody really wants to work with the federal ÖVP these days.

Not the Greens, not the FPÖ, not the SPÖ.

Even many Greens in the govt right now with them are quietly saying that the power-hungry ÖVP is a ruthless, backstabbing entity that will do everything to destroy their smaller coalition partners with shady methods.

First, the ÖVP planted moles inside the SPÖ, which destroyed the SPÖ from the inside and as a result blew up the SPÖVP coalition.

Then, they organized (or at least aided the release and circulation of) the Ibiza-video that blew up their coalition with the FPÖ.

Now, they are using deportations of well-integrated children and other smear tactics (https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123730106/einstiger-gruenen-sprecher-sah-ibiza-videoteile-vor-veroeffentlichung) to decimate their current coalition partner - the Greens.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on January 30, 2021, 02:50:39 PM
Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.
Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?

Nobody really wants to work with the federal ÖVP these days.

Not the Greens, not the FPÖ, not the SPÖ.

Even many Greens in the govt right now with them are quietly saying that the power-hungry ÖVP is a ruthless, backstabbing entity that will do everything to destroy their smaller coalition partners with shady methods.

First, the ÖVP planted moles inside the SPÖ, which destroyed the SPÖ from the inside and as a result blew up the SPÖVP coalition.

Then, they organized (or at least aided the release and circulation of) the Ibiza-video that blew up their coalition with the FPÖ.

Now, they are using deportations of well-integrated children and other smear tactics (https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123730106/einstiger-gruenen-sprecher-sah-ibiza-videoteile-vor-veroeffentlichung) to decimate their current coalition partner - the Greens.
If GreenOVP ends, could we see some kind of Frankenstein coalition that leaves out the OVP?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 30, 2021, 02:54:10 PM
Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.
Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?

Nobody really wants to work with the federal ÖVP these days.

Not the Greens, not the FPÖ, not the SPÖ.

Even many Greens in the govt right now with them are quietly saying that the power-hungry ÖVP is a ruthless, backstabbing entity that will do everything to destroy their smaller coalition partners with shady methods.

First, the ÖVP planted moles inside the SPÖ, which destroyed the SPÖ from the inside and as a result blew up the SPÖVP coalition.

Then, they organized (or at least aided the release and circulation of) the Ibiza-video that blew up their coalition with the FPÖ.

Now, they are using deportations of well-integrated children and other smear tactics (https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123730106/einstiger-gruenen-sprecher-sah-ibiza-videoteile-vor-veroeffentlichung) to decimate their current coalition partner - the Greens.
If GreenOVP ends, could we see some kind of Frankenstein coalition that leaves out the OVP?

No.

... even though that actually happened for a brief period after ÖVP-FPÖ fell apart, with Brigitte Bierlein as Chancellor.

This 3/4 of a year was good times.

Quiet times, but it was some sort of well-functioning, multi-partisan, Swiss-style government and parliament.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on January 30, 2021, 02:56:16 PM
so I guess the OVP can get its cake and eat it too then. No possible governmental option leaves them out.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 30, 2021, 02:58:19 PM
so I guess the OVP can get its cake and eat it too then. No possible governmental option leaves them out.

That basically sums everything up, yes.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on January 30, 2021, 03:01:58 PM
so I guess the OVP can get its cake and eat it too then. No possible governmental option leaves them out.

That basically sums everything up, yes.
inb4 there is an SPOVP government next time, with the SPO reluctantly agreeing to be the OVP's latest punching bag.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 03, 2021, 12:10:22 PM
derstandard.at speculates that the ÖVP-Green coalition could blow up tomorrow:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123848623/koalition-auf-der-kippe

The FPÖ has called a special parliamentary session for tomorrow (Corona-related), but the SPÖ and NEOS will introduce motions which call for "humane and reformed asylum/deportation laws" which would prohibit the deportation - like the one recently - of children who were already born in Austria.

In fact, the SPÖ will introduce the same text as they did in the Vienna state parliament, which the Greens there supported.

It will put the Greens in a delicate situation: with the ÖVP totally opposed to any reforms in the immigration/asylum/deportation laws, the Greens will have to show their true colors. Either vote with the ÖVP out of coalition respect and alienate more and more of their voters, or back the opposition proposal. Which would be a de-facto end of the coalition.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Omega21 on February 03, 2021, 06:51:44 PM
They should just allow the kids born here to stay and that's it. Should also have other requirements, tied to German, school, etc.

Most of our issues are a result of single male newcomers, not kids.

I get that it would basically be "pardoning" the law-breaking parents, but still not an insane issue.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 04, 2021, 11:32:36 AM
They should just allow the kids born here to stay and that's it. Should also have other requirements, tied to German, school, etc.

Most of our issues are a result of single male newcomers, not kids.

I get that it would basically be "pardoning" the law-breaking parents, but still not an insane issue.

For this, the law would have to be changed - which the ÖVP categorically opposes because it would set a precedent and a signal to people abroad that Austria weakens its tough asylum laws.

Also, it's not practical in real life: If you have asylum seekers here who give birth to a child and somehow avoid deportation for years, this child grows up here while the parents are here illegally (like in this case at hand). The parents are deported, while the kids remain here because they were born here ? That's not going to work. You have to deport both.

Anway, the Greens folded today and voted with the ÖVP and against the opposition, after the ÖVP told them that they'd risk breaking up the coalition in the midst of a health crisis:

Quote
Green parliamentary club boss Sigrid Maurer announced that they would not agree to the proposals of the SPÖ and NEOS. However, the Greens are “determined” to better protect the rights of children in Austria. Maurer interpreted the requests to bring the girls recently deported to Georgia and Armenia back to Austria as an “attempt by the SPÖ to play cheap party politics. This is a transparent maneuver, especially since the SPÖ itself decided to tighten numerous asylum laws during its reign.”

Green leader Werner Kogler has meanwhile announced the establishment of a commission to deal with the importance of children's rights and the welfare of children in decisions on asylum and residence rights. Former President of the Supreme Court and ex-NEOS MP Irmgard Griss will head the Child Welfare Commission. Together with experts, she will develop recommendations on how the best interests of the child and children's rights can be given greater consideration. A first report should be available and published in the middle of the year.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: rob in cal on February 04, 2021, 12:44:01 PM
  So did the Greens end up voting with the FPO as well as the OVP on this issue then? That makes for an interesting line up.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 04, 2021, 01:02:51 PM
 So did the Greens end up voting with the FPO as well as the OVP on this issue then? That makes for an interesting line up.

Well, yes.

The Greens knew from the start what they are in for, when entering a coalition with the ÖVP ...

They are their b*tch, they need to bend over and get screwed on migration issues.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 04, 2021, 01:58:21 PM
New Ö24 poll:

39% ÖVP
24% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
10% NEOS
  9% Greens
  3% Others

That’s the highest number for the SPÖ in a while and the lowest for the Greens.

But the Ö24 polls are not really accurate historically.

Also, 58% of Austrians polled support the deportation of the 3 school kids recently and their parents, 42% are opposed.

76% of Austrians polled reject changes to the strict asylum laws, only 24% want reforms to make them less strict.

https://www.diepresse.com/5932656/spo-und-fpo-wollen-nehammer-aus-dem-amt-schicken


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: MaxQue on February 04, 2021, 04:36:19 PM
Hopefully, SPO-Greens-NEOS gets a majority and flood Lower Austria with immigrants.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Omega21 on February 04, 2021, 05:07:14 PM
Hopefully, SPO-Greens-NEOS gets a majority and flood Lower Austria with immigrants.

Yes, sure hope so!

And subsequently be buried politically for at least a decade to come 🤩🤩🤩🤩



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 04, 2021, 11:19:03 PM
Hopefully, SPO-Greens-NEOS gets a majority and flood Lower Austria with immigrants.

Yes, sure hope so!

And subsequently be buried politically for at least a decade to come 🤩🤩🤩🤩

More like a century.

SPÖ-Greens-NEOS won’t happen though.

There’s a structural right-wing majority in all elections.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 05, 2021, 09:29:56 AM
More than 3 weeks before the Carinthia statewide municipal elections, demand for postal and early voting is enormous:

https://www.5min.at/202102351536/regelrechter-ansturm-schon-4000-wahlkarten-in-villach-ausgegeben

Typically, you can start requesting a postal ballot about 4 weeks before an election.

After the first 4 days, the requests so far are 3x the number of the total number before the 2015 elections !

Klagenfurt, Villach & other big cities have put containers outside their city halls where people can use „walk-by-voting“: immediately request a postal ballot through a window at the city hall, fill it out in the container nearby and drop it off through the window again. All outside in the fresh air.

()

Despite all of these measures, they still expect overall turnout to go down ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 05, 2021, 09:37:00 AM
Hopefully, SPO-Greens-NEOS gets a majority and flood Lower Austria with immigrants.

Any particular reason why they should flood Lower Austria with immigrants and not the other 8 states ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 06, 2021, 04:05:53 AM
New "Profil" magazine poll on birthright citizenship (jus soli) vs. heritage citizenship (jus sanguinis):

45% of Austrians support the current heritage citizenship law (jus sanguinis)
44% of Austrians support the introduction of a birthright citizenship law (jus soli)
11% are undecided

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20210206_OTS0019/profil-umfrage-44-fuer-automatische-staatsbuergerschaft-bei-geburt-in-oesterreich


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2021, 12:49:21 AM
Brutal new OGM poll out for Graz, the country’s 2nd-largest city - which votes in ca. 1 year:

()

The current city coalition is ÖVP-FPÖ.

Before that, it was ÖVP-SPÖ and before that ÖVP-Greens.

A KP-led government would be possible next year according to the poll, but I’m not sure if Greens and SPÖ would let it happen.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 07, 2021, 01:18:41 PM
Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.
Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?

Nobody really wants to work with the federal ÖVP these days.

Not the Greens, not the FPÖ, not the SPÖ.

Even many Greens in the govt right now with them are quietly saying that the power-hungry ÖVP is a ruthless, backstabbing entity that will do everything to destroy their smaller coalition partners with shady methods.

First, the ÖVP planted moles inside the SPÖ, which destroyed the SPÖ from the inside and as a result blew up the SPÖVP coalition.

Then, they organized (or at least aided the release and circulation of) the Ibiza-video that blew up their coalition with the FPÖ.

Now, they are using deportations of well-integrated children and other smear tactics (https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123730106/einstiger-gruenen-sprecher-sah-ibiza-videoteile-vor-veroeffentlichung) to decimate their current coalition partner - the Greens.
if i was neos i would considering this after the next election


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2021, 04:22:26 PM
if i was neos i would considering this after the next election

Before thinking about this, ÖVP/NEOS would need a majority.

Which is far from certain.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 07, 2021, 08:39:03 PM
if i was neos i would considering this after the next election

Before thinking about this, ÖVP/NEOS would need a majority.

Which is far from certain.
Some recent polls showed it possible I believe


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Omega21 on February 07, 2021, 10:35:42 PM
New "Profil" magazine poll on birthright citizenship (jus soli) vs. heritage citizenship (jus sanguinis):

45% of Austrians support the current heritage citizenship law (jus sanguinis)
44% of Austrians support the introduction of a birthright citizenship law (jus soli)
11% are undecided

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20210206_OTS0019/profil-umfrage-44-fuer-automatische-staatsbuergerschaft-bei-geburt-in-oesterreich

Well then, better get to building 2 more bus terminals in Vienna, God knows half of the Balkans will be coming for "tourism" while 9 months pregnant.

Source: I am from the Balkans, and this would definitely happen.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 10, 2021, 01:35:38 PM
New IFDD poll:

()

https://www.krone.at/2336301

After their honeymoon in the first lockdown in March/April last year, it's now the opposite for ÖVP-Greens: the chaotic (EU) vaccination programme, the long 2nd and 3rd lockdowns and the slumping economy are finally taking a toll on the government.

Compared to the 2019 election results:

ÖVP: -2.5%
SPÖ: +2.8%
FPÖ: +1.8%
Greens: -3.9%
NEOS: +2.9%
Others: -1.1%


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: TheSaint250 on February 10, 2021, 06:31:04 PM
A KP-led government would be possible next year according to the poll, but I’m not sure if Greens and SPÖ would let it happen.

When was the last time (if ever) that this happened in Graz?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 10, 2021, 07:54:17 PM
Graz government is proportional, KPO has 2 on 7 member, the others are 3 OVP, 1 FPO and 1 Green


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 10, 2021, 09:21:45 PM
any up coming elections?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28 February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 10, 2021, 11:02:51 PM
A KP-led government would be possible next year according to the poll, but I’m not sure if Greens and SPÖ would let it happen.

When was the last time (if ever) that this happened in Graz?

Never.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 10, 2021, 11:03:13 PM

Read the thread title.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2021, 11:51:52 PM
Uh-oh:

Quote
Home of Austria’s finance minister raided by police

()

Anti-corruption police raided the home of Austria’s finance minister on Thursday as a sprawling, multiyear bribery investigation expanded its scope to the highest level of politics in the country.

Gernot Blümel, a close ally of chancellor Sebastian Kurz, has been formally named by the Office of the Prosecutor for Economic Affairs and Corruption (WKStA) as a suspect in its probe into bribery linked to Austria’s powerful gambling lobby.

Blümel attended an appointment at the prosecutor’s office on Thursday morning.

His home was searched by police from the Federal Anti-Corruption Bureau shortly afterwards, and included a team of forensic IT and accounting specialists.

“The investigations are based on the suspicion that a responsible person of a gambling company offered donations to a political party in return for the support of officials of the Republic of Austria in the case of a tax claim abroad threatening the company,” the WKStA said in a statement.

“I am glad that the conversation has now taken place,” Blümel told the media. “Now I know the accusations, they can be cleared up in a few words. I would never have, and have never, accepted donations from gambling companies, especially not if there was also a quid pro quo involved.”

Questions over the cosy relationship between gambling concessions and politicians have dogged politics in Austria for years.

The current probe focuses on relationships between politicians and Austria’s Novomatic, one of the largest gambling companies in the world, owned by the reclusive septuagenarian billionaire Johann Graf.

A spokesperson for Novomatic said the allegations were “false and incorrect”.

“Novomatic has never made any donation to any political party,” the spokesperson added. “Of course, we are co-operating with the authorities so that these incorrect allegations can be clarified quickly.”

Blümel said that the Austrian People’s party to which he belongs — and of which Kurz is the leader — had not accepted any donations from Novomatic. “I am ready at any time to contribute anything further necessary to enable a quick clarification and to refute the false accusations,” he added.

https://www.ft.com/content/24ecddcd-5c23-4a78-9a1b-950f7311a9a8

The long honeymoon for Kurz and the ÖVP (4 years now) will soon come to an end ... expect SPÖ, FPÖ and NEOS to rise sharply over the next months and years (for different reasons).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 13, 2021, 03:54:18 AM
Monthly "Profil" magazine poll shows ÖVP-Greens falling further and the 3 opposition parties all getting a higher result than in the 2019 election:

36% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
17% FPÖ
11% NEOS
10% Greens
  3% Others

Quote
Methodenmix:

Telefonische und Online-Befragung, Zielgruppe: Österreichische Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren, Stichprobengröße: 800 Befragte, Maximale Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: +/-3,5%, Feldarbeit: 8. bis 11. Februar 2021

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-leicht-ruecklaeufig-gruene-sacken-stark-ab/401187187


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2021, 04:05:34 AM
Another day, another possibility for ÖVP-Greens to fall apart.

The opposition has called a special session of parliament for today and a no-confidence-vote for Finance Minister Blümel (ÖVP), see 2 posts above.

Before the vote, the Greens will announce if they vote with the opposition (which would be the end for the government).

The chances are ca. 95% though that the Greens will stick with the ÖVP and call on Blümel to explain himself fully in the plenum today ...

https://www.derstandard.at/jetzt/livebericht/2000124208092/gruene-verkuenden-entscheidung-ueber-misstrauensantrag-gegen-bluemel


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2021, 11:22:41 AM
Another day, another possibility for ÖVP-Greens to fall apart.

The opposition has called a special session of parliament for today and a no-confidence-vote for Finance Minister Blümel (ÖVP), see 2 posts above.

Before the vote, the Greens will announce if they vote with the opposition (which would be the end for the government).

The chances are ca. 95% though that the Greens will stick with the ÖVP and call on Blümel to explain himself fully in the plenum today ...

https://www.derstandard.at/jetzt/livebericht/2000124208092/gruene-verkuenden-entscheidung-ueber-misstrauensantrag-gegen-bluemel

The Greens launched heavy verbal broadsides and accusations against the ÖVP today and called them "gestört" (= nuts) in their relationship with the judicial system and embezzlement with the gambling industry.

Ultimately, they still voted with the ÖVP to keep Blümel in office - because they said that Blümel so far is only a suspect in the investigation and not officially charged with a crime, or even sentenced.

()

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/sondersitzung-zur-causa-bluemel-im-live-stream/401190280


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2021, 04:57:09 AM
For the Carinthia statewide municipal elections (town councils and mayors) next Sunday, a total of 465.256 people are eligible to vote.

This is about 900 higher than in 2015, but only because of an increase in EU-citizens eligible to vote:

Between 2015-2021, about 9.000 more EU-citizens are eligible to vote - while the number of Austrian citizens allowed to vote dropped by almost 10.000 people.

While there's a spike in postal and early voting, turnout is expected to drop by a lot because of the COV-situation, with many old people sitting it out.

Turnout in 2009 was 81% (Jörg Haider remembrance vote), but already dropped to 71% in 2015.

It is expected to be not higher than 62% this year, and might actually drop below 60% too ...

https://www.oe24.at/newsfeed/kaernten-wahlen-465-256-personen-sind-diesmal-wahlberechtigt/465628951


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2021, 03:31:58 AM
New Ö24/Research Affairs poll (not very reliable, but still):

37% ÖVP
24% SPÖ
17% FPÖ
10% NEOS
  8% Greens
  4% Others

ÖVP-Green job approval: 41-59

Also, lowest support for the Greens in several years.

n=1.000, Feb. 15-18, MoE= +/- 3.2%.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/umfrage-tuerkis-gruene-koalition-rutscht-ab/465866463


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2021, 03:56:12 AM
The "Kleine Zeitung" newspaper has asked pollster OGM to do a poll in Villach, the 2nd-largest city in Carinthia (70k people), for the municipal election next Sunday.

48% SPÖ (-0.7% vs. 2015 election)
18% ÖVP (-2.5%)
14% FPÖ (-0.5%)
  8% Greens (n.c.)
  7% Responsibility Earth (+3.4%)
  3% NEOS (+0.6%)
  2% Others

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2015/GR2015_20201.html

Mayoral direct vote:

58% Günther Albel (SPÖ) (+2.5% vs. 2015 election)
18% Katharina Spanring (ÖVP) (-6.7%)
11% Erwin Baumann (FPÖ) (-1.1%)
  7% Sabina Schautzer (Grüne) (+1.4%)
  4% Gerald Dobernig (Erde) (+4.0%)
  2% Bernhard Zebedin (Neos) (+0.9%)

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmwahl2015/BD2015_20201.html

Turnout:

12% already voted
48% will definitely vote => 60% turnout

22% will probably vote
17% will probably not vote

In 2015, turnout was 61%.

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/kaernten/5939460/Gemeinderatswahl-in-Villach_Grosse-OGMUmfrage_Alles-klar-fuer

The Greens seem to hold well in municipal elections, contrary to federal polls.

And that's even with opposing Green-minded lists in Carinthia, like "Responsibility Earth".


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2021, 06:50:51 AM
Kleine Zeitung and OGM will also release a poll for the capital city Klagenfurt (105k people) this weekend.

Unlike in Villach, where the Greens are split in two, it's the FPÖ that's split in two in Klagenfurt this time - with the former BZÖ/FPÖ mayor there under Haider now running for the Team Carinthia against the local FPÖ.

If the current mayor of Klagenfurt, Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ), ends up below 50% in the direct vote (which is likely), it will be interesting to see who enters the runoff with her. ÖVP ? FPÖ ? TK ? or even the Greens (but I guess they are too weak).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2021, 04:51:52 AM
Kleine Zeitung and OGM will also release a poll for the capital city Klagenfurt (105k people) this weekend.

34% SPÖ (+3.3% vs. 2015 election)
20% ÖVP (+1.2%)
15% TK (+14.7%)
12% Greens (-2.1%)
12% FPÖ (-12.9%)
  5% NEOS (+1.5%)
  2% Others

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2015/GR2015_20101.html

Mayoral direct vote:

41% Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) (+10.9% vs. 2015 election)
20% Christian Scheider (Team Kärnten) (+20%, but actually -11.1%)
14% Markus Geiger (ÖVP) (-5.7%)
12% Wolfgang Germ (FPÖ) (-19.1%)
  8% Frank Frey (Grüne) (-0.7%)
  5% Janos Juvan (Neos) (+3.5%)

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmwahl2015/BD2015_20101.html

Mayoral direct vote - RUNOFF:

57% Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) (2015 runoff: 53.3%)
33% Christian Scheider (Team Kärnten) (2015 runoff: 46.7%)
10% Undecided

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/kaernten/5940086/Gemeinderatswahl-in-Klagenfurt_Scheider-mischt-in-Klagenfurt


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2021, 07:17:37 AM
New Krone/IFDD polls are backing up the polls from KZ/OGM (even though in the IFDD Klagenfurt poll, results indicate a SPÖ-FPÖ mayoral runoff):

()

()

https://www.krone.at/2347594


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 21, 2021, 01:02:32 PM
New "Market" poll for the "Standard" shows an SPÖ-surge:

37% ÖVP (-0.5%)
25% SPÖ (+3.8%)
14% FPÖ (-2.2%)
12% Greens (-1.9%)
10% NEOS (+1.9%)
  2% Others (-1.1%)

Quote
Dokumentation: Market, n= 1000 repräsentativ für die wahlberechtigte österreichische Bevölkerung. Online-Befragung, ergänzt mit CAPI-Samplepoints. Erhebungszeitraum: 15. bis 17. Februar 2021.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000124319631/unzufriedenheit-mit-corona-management-der-regierung-steigt


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 26, 2021, 08:17:32 AM
2 days before the Carinthia statewide municipal elections, 88 postal votes in a town have been stolen from a safe inside the municipal building, along with ca. 2.500€ in cash.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092311

It is fairly likely that the Carinthia election commission will order a re-vote in that town at a later date.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 26, 2021, 08:51:44 AM
More than 105.000 postal ballots have been issued in Carinthia for the Sunday election:

https://www.diepresse.com/5943212/rekordzahl-von-105612-wahlkarten-in-karnten

That means every 3rd voter will vote by post, assuming a 60% turnout.

23% of all eligible voters requested one.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 27, 2021, 03:25:32 AM
Municipal elections in Carinthia tomorrow !

The state of Carinthia used to be a stronghold of the Social Democrats (SPÖ) ever since.

()

In the early 1980s, Jörg Haider (FPÖ, far-right populist), rose to power in the state and won election after election until his car-crash-death in 2008.

In the 2009 "Jörg Haider remembrance vote" (state and municipal elections) - his successor party BZÖ, won a landslide victory.

In the years after, all the corruption and financial mismanagement under Haider and his successors came to light and voters switched back to the Social Dems (SPÖ) in the 2015 municipal elections and even more so, in the 2018 state election, missing an absolute majority by only a single seat in the state parliament (the current government therefore is SPÖVP).

The SPÖ is expected to retain a big statewide lead tomorrow, but the extent is unclear.

The elections tomorrow are basically about 270 individual elections (2 elections in all of the 135 or so towns and cities, 1x mayoral direct vote and 1x city council).

A statewide result will still be aggregated out of interest, because the election could be a COVID protest election of some sort.

It will be interesting to see if there's any effect from federal politics (usually not).

Will Kurz's ÖVP remain stable after all the Ibiza fallout and the lagging vaccinations ?

Has the FPÖ bottomed out after Ibiza already and is on the upswing again ?

Are the Greens falling because of the federal trend down, or are they able to regain a footing in Carinthia after they got destroyed there in 2018 ?

Are NEOS consolidating support ?

There's also a trend towards Independent lists in municipal elections from election to election, making comparisons of the major parties between elections more and more complicated. But this is particularly a problem in ÖVP-states such as Tyrol and Vorarlberg, in Carinthia not as much yet.

The outcomes in the 2 largest cities Klagenfurt and Villach are basically set in stone, with SPÖ victories.

Not sure what's going on in Wolfsberg, the 3rd-largest city ...

But the outcome in the 4th-largest, Spittal an der Drau, is a nailbiter according to Research Affairs polls:

Gerhard Köfer, mayor of the city between 1997 and 2013, used to be in the SPÖ until 2012 - after which he quit the party for the Team Stronach.

Now, he wants his old job back with his "Team Carinthia" against the SPÖ incumbent Gerhard Pirih - who won outright in the 1st round with 56%.

The Team Carinthia originated from the Team Stronach and is made of former FPÖ- and BZÖ-members as well ...

Political strength map by town (2018 state election, which is not directly comparable to municipal elections - but still):

()

SPÖ+Greens+NEOS tend to do well in the southern part of the state in the Klagenfurt-Villach basin and near Slovenia.

ÖVP+FPÖ+TK are doing well up north in the mountains and rural areas.

Polls will close at 4pm tomorrow and final results from most towns are expected a few hours later.

Counting postal votes will start on Monday.

Wiki link (German) (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemeinderats-_und_B%C3%BCrgermeisterwahlen_in_K%C3%A4rnten_2021)

2015 results (statewide, German) (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemeinderats-_und_B%C3%BCrgermeisterwahlen_in_K%C3%A4rnten_2015#Landesergebnis)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 27, 2021, 08:12:31 AM
2 days before the Carinthia statewide municipal elections, 88 postal votes in a town have been stolen from a safe inside the municipal building, along with ca. 2.500€ in cash.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092311

It is fairly likely that the Carinthia election commission will order a re-vote in that town at a later date.

The stolen safe has been found, without the 2.500€ in cash, but with the undamaged & still sealed box of postal ballots inside.

The safe was dumped near a pile of wood and a farmer found it.

The mayor now wants to count those postal ballots tomorrow.

It remains to be seen if a party objects to the ballots being included in the tally or not ...

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092495


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 12:48:46 AM
2 days before the Carinthia statewide municipal elections, 88 postal votes in a town have been stolen from a safe inside the municipal building, along with ca. 2.500€ in cash.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092311

It is fairly likely that the Carinthia election commission will order a re-vote in that town at a later date.

The stolen safe has been found, without the 2.500€ in cash, but with the undamaged & still sealed box of postal ballots inside.

The safe was dumped near a pile of wood and a farmer found it.

The mayor now wants to count those postal ballots tomorrow.

It remains to be seen if a party objects to the ballots being included in the tally or not ...

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092495

Polls in Carinthia are open, or will open soon.

PS:

The postal ballots that were stolen and found sealed and undamaged were ruled valid for counting yesterday evening by the town election commission in a unanimous vote.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092495


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 05:58:11 AM
It seems people in Carinthia are not really motivated to vote today ...

Only some people come and go, according to some reports.

This probably means turnout will slump from 71% in 2015 to around 50-55% today.

A massive drop.

Similar to the drop we saw in Catalonia recently.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 08:28:14 AM
Meanwhile, a new Vienna poll (Unique Research/"Krone", n=800, 19.-25. February):

()

https://www.krone.at/2353636

The current city government is SPÖ-NEOS, both of which are gaining - as is the FPÖ (because Strache is not included any longer). ÖVP/Greens are falling.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 10:00:02 AM
Polls in Carinthia are closing ...

ORF Live Stream (https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Gemeinderats-und-Buergermeisterwahlen-2021-Kaernten-in-voller-Laenge/14107555)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 10:10:30 AM
Result maps by town (132):

https://orf.at/wahl/kaernten21/choropleth

The upper map is for town council results, the lower map for mayoral direct election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 10:18:40 AM
First trends (based on smaller counted towns):

# FPÖ holding up really well
# ÖVP stable or gaining
# SPÖ gaining slightly
# turnout only down slightly

Greens and NEOS are virtually not existing/running in small towns.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 10:22:42 AM
The FPÖ only declines by 2%, which is almost nothing compared to the big losses (often double digit losses) in all elections after the Ibiza scandal.

It seems as if the FPÖ has bottomed out and can re-gain protest voters from the Covid situation.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 10:29:20 AM
In Ossiach, a lakeside tourist town, the FPÖ gains from 49% to 53%.

SPÖ & ÖVP gaining too.

Greens decimated.

Turnout stable at 81%.

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2021/GR2021_21006.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 10:44:21 AM
As more aggregated town results come in, SPÖ and ÖVP are very stable compared to 2015 - while the FPÖ now declines by 5%.

The big winners so far are independent lists.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 10:46:57 AM
State results website (better/faster than ORF):

City councils:

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2021/

Mayors:

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmwahl2021/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 10:52:59 AM
I’m pleasantly surprised that turnout in the already counted towns only went down from 85% to 82%.

But one can assume that the drop will be much larger in the larger towns ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on February 28, 2021, 11:09:02 AM
Meanwhile, a new Vienna poll (Unique Research/"Krone", n=800, 19.-25. February):

()

https://www.krone.at/2353636

The current city government is SPÖ-NEOS, both of which are gaining - as is the FPÖ (because Strache is not included any longer). ÖVP/Greens are falling.

Is his outfit now officially defunct then?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 12:04:14 PM
Is his outfit now officially defunct then?

Not „officially“, but 99%.

They have not posted any news on their website since November and after the Vienna election it basically fell apart anyway.

There was some speculation that Strache might try once more in the Upper Austrian state election later this year, but he would catastrophically fail there as well.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 12:37:08 PM
There seems to be a pattern emerging in Carinthia as more votes are counted:

# There’s a big rural/urban divide that’s getting more polarizing. The ÖVP gains ground in rural areas, the SPÖ in urban/suburban areas.

# The SPÖ is doing better though in the rural eastern part, worse in the rural western part of the state.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on February 28, 2021, 11:48:45 PM
129 of 132 towns/cities were fully counted yesterday.

The 3 largest cities (Klagenfurt, Villach and Wolfsberg) will count their postal votes today, because a record amount was cast.

But the precinct results were completely released yesterday already and there was a big surprise in Klagenfurt (the capital):

The incumbent Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) got a relatively weak result with around 30% and was actually topped by former mayor Christian Scheider (Team Carinthia, former FPÖ/FPK/BZÖ) with 31%. The 11.000 postal ballots could see Scheider behind, but it’s still going to be very close in the runoff.

In Villach, the SPÖ retained their absolute majority before postal votes are counted and the SPÖ mayor got re-elected with almost 60%.

In Wolfsberg, the SPÖ increased their absolute majority by 4% and the SPÖ mayor got easily re-elected with 67%.

The SPÖ suffered a big blow in Spittal an der Drau though, where their incumbent mayor only got 35% vs. 36% for the candidate from the Team Carinthia (Köfer), who used to be mayor between 1997 and 2013 for the SPÖ. He’s very likely to lose the runoff now.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 01, 2021, 12:02:21 AM
In Villach, (65k people), the grouping „Responsibility Earth“ got a huge 12%, while the Greens lost a few points.

The Greens generally did badly in towns they ran, with their results cut in half from 2015 almost everywhere.

The SPÖ, while almost no change in support statewide from 2015, lost many mayors - even before the runoffs. From 60, to no more than 53 - even if they would win all runoffs in two weeks.

The ÖVP gained everywhere, statewide by ca. 4-5%.

The FPÖ lost 3-4% on average.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 01, 2021, 12:20:05 AM
It looks as if turnout increased by a lot in Villach, once the postal ballots are counted:

https://villach.at/stadt-erleben/news/sprengel-wahlergebnis-der-stadt-villach

70-75% vs. 61% in 2015.

In Klagenfurt, turnout was probably down by 5-10% vs. 2015.

Statewide, turnout was pretty good after all: I estimate it at around 68-70%, down from 71%.

It will depend on the postal votes from the 3 largest cities though, which are counted today.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 01, 2021, 12:23:17 PM
It looks as if turnout increased by a lot in Villach, once the postal ballots are counted:

https://villach.at/stadt-erleben/news/sprengel-wahlergebnis-der-stadt-villach

70-75% vs. 61% in 2015.

In Klagenfurt, turnout was probably down by 5-10% vs. 2015.

Statewide, turnout was pretty good after all: I estimate it at around 68-70%, down from 71%.

It will depend on the postal votes from the 3 largest cities though, which are counted today.

It seems as if Villach included all returned postal ballots in their turnout estimate from yesterday already.

Which means turnout wasn't 70-75% with postals, but only 56%.

Down from 61% in 2015.

Only Klagenfurt is still missing until a final result.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 01, 2021, 02:07:37 PM
Final results of the Carinthia municipal elections yesterday:

39.9% SPÖ (-0.3% compared to 2015)
24.3% ÖVP (+1.6%)
13.8% FPÖ (-4.2%)
  4.3% TK (+4.0%)
  3.6% Greens (-2.1%)
  1.4% NEOS (+0.1%)
12.7% Indy lists (often former SPÖ, ÖVP and FPÖ) (+0.9%)

City council seats won statewide:

948 SPÖ (-36 compared to 2015)
682 ÖVP (+53)
355 FPÖ (-95)
  40 Greens (-28)
  35 TK (+22)
    8 NEOS (+1)
404 Indy lists (+55)

Turnout:

67.3% (-3.9%)

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2021

https://orf.at/wahl/kaernten21/choropleth

Surprisingly, the SPÖ was a loser in this election statewide. Along with the Greens and the FPÖ.

ÖVP, TK, Indy lists and NEOS are the winners.

28 of the 132 towns will have mayoral runoffs in 2 weeks.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Astatine on March 01, 2021, 03:55:26 PM
Do you think TK will survive on a medium-term basis in Carinthia as political force (just like Liste Fritz kinda did in Tyrol)?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: rob in cal on March 02, 2021, 02:13:34 AM
  Tender, what do you think of the Klagenfurt mayor runoff. In theory if the vast majority of FPO and OVP voters go for the TK candidate Scheider, he'd be in good shape.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2021, 11:23:52 AM
Do you think TK will survive on a medium-term basis in Carinthia as political force (just like Liste Fritz kinda did in Tyrol)?

I think so, yes.

They are an alternative protest vote next to the FPÖ (like Fritz in Tyrol), without much of the radicalism of the FPÖ.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2021, 11:27:08 AM
  Tender, what do you think of the Klagenfurt mayor runoff. In theory if the vast majority of FPO and OVP voters go for the TK candidate Scheider, he'd be in good shape.

Mayor Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) could definitely be in trouble considering those 1st round results.

It was already pretty close in 2015 and Scheider still seems to enjoy support from his time as mayor there. Also, MLM is not a very popular mayor if we believe the OGM poll from before the election, which showed her favourable ratings at -20. Scheider had even worse favourable ratings than her, which might be a reason she could pull it out. But I guess it will be quite close.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: njwes on March 03, 2021, 12:36:06 PM
Russia Nominates Austrian Ex-Minister Kneissl to Rosneft Board (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03/russia-nominates-austrian-ex-minister-kneissl-to-rosneft-board)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2021, 12:00:56 AM
Russia Nominates Austrian Ex-Minister Kneissl to Rosneft Board (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03/russia-nominates-austrian-ex-minister-kneissl-to-rosneft-board)

()

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: njwes on March 04, 2021, 12:07:40 AM
That's Kurz yeah?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: ale62 on March 04, 2021, 08:15:39 AM
Ex  Chancellor of Austria


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2021, 12:57:03 PM

Yes (+ Norbert Hofer).


Not yet.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2021, 05:05:16 AM
Monthly "Profil" magazine poll:

35% ÖVP (-2.5% vs. 2019 election)
24% SPÖ (+2.8%)
17% FPÖ (+0.8%)
12% NEOS (+3.9%)
10% Greens (-3.9%)
  2% Others (-1.1%)

Quote
Quelle:

UNIQUE Research. Methodenmix: Telefonische und Online-Befragung, Zielgruppe: Österreichische Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren, Stichprobengröße: 800 Befragte, Maximale Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: +/-3,5%, Feldarbeit: 1. bis 4. März 2021

45% ÖVP-Green government
53% SPÖ-FPÖ-NEOS opposition

52% ÖVP-FPÖ rightwing government
46% SPÖ-Green-NEOS left-liberal government

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-regierung-verliert-an-zustimmung/401209453


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2021, 01:00:47 PM
FPÖ-Kickl (= former Interior Minister and wannabe party leader) attacks Israel at the big anti-COV protests yesterday:

()

Quote
In the Prater park, the FPÖ club chairman then spoke of a government in a "power frenzy", identified a division in society and "propaganda" in the media; his audience chanted the usual "lying press" as a reaction. The EU health policy is a "harmonized power game" because "those up there want to dominate us", Kickl said and also addressed the visit of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) to Israel on Thursday because of the vaccines: There is a "health apartheid" there, the country is currently one of the "unfreedom". Some anti-Semitic comments were then heard from the audience. During the 40 minutes, Kickl chanted several times "Kurz must go." and ended with a self-written poem about the "Corona tyranny".

https://www.sn.at/panorama/oesterreich/anti-corona-demos-in-wien-mit-vielen-anzeigen-und-kickl-rede-100703629


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2021, 01:10:26 PM
Meanwhile:

Former FPÖ leader Strache (also at the Covid protests yesterday in Vienna) is now a mask producer.

https://www.krone.at/2348978

He has a stake at a Serbian company that produces them and is part of another Vienna mask company ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2021, 05:24:45 AM
28 of the 132 towns will have mayoral runoffs in 2 weeks.

That's tomorrow.

I expect a close runoff in the capital Klagenfurt, where I expect the SPÖ-mayor M-L M-T to be re-elected with 50.5% to 54%.

Spittal an der Drau might actually vote for their former ex-SPÖ/ex-TS mayor Köfer over the SPÖ-incumbent (who did poorly in round one).

In most other cities, the SPÖ should be favoured from round one results.

Turnout is probably down sharply from round one, because in Klagenfurt for example only 6.000 postal ballots were requested vs. 11.000 in round one.

Polls close at 4pm, results are final during the (late) evening.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2021, 07:36:09 AM
Satire ?

Quote
Kickl criticizes Kurz for "EU bashing"

"Who should still trust this Chancellor who betrays his partners both at the national and EU level and stabs them in the back when it is for his own benefit ?" asks FPÖ club chairman Herbert Kickl in a press release in response to the statements of the ÖVP Chancellor Sebastian Kurz on the EU's vaccine procurement.

The FPÖ criticized Kurz for his "desperate EU bashing". This is "implausible. In November, the Chancellor applauded Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during a video conference, who spoke of vaccine procurement as one of the great success stories of the EU," says Kickl, "just one day after a poll that was catastrophic for the Chancellor became known in which almost two thirds of all respondents distrust the vaccine from AstraZeneca, which is mainly bought by the government, Sebastian Kurz accidentally discovered the guilt of the EU."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on March 13, 2021, 10:28:12 AM
I haven’t seen anything on the presidential election next year could someone give us insight on what we know so far?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2021, 01:07:35 PM
I haven’t seen anything on the presidential election next year could someone give us insight on what we know so far?

Neither have we people living in the country seen a lot so far ...

Summary:

# President VdB hasn’t said yet if he’ll run for re-election, or retire
# Norbert Hofer has been very vague about another candidacy, but won’t run if VdB runs again
# ÖVP & SPÖ will only run own candidates if VdB retires
# not sure what NEOS plans
# no Independent candidates are out of the closet either


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2021, 01:48:04 PM
Kurz whining around about the unequal EU vaccine distribution, which he himself voted for:

https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-eu-coronavirus-vaccines-distribution-european-commission-sebastian-kurz-summit/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2021, 01:57:37 PM
I haven’t seen anything on the presidential election next year could someone give us insight on what we know so far?

Some hypothetical polls (by a mediocre pollster who overestimated Hofer in 2016):

()

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2021, 11:54:15 PM
2 new polls (Research Affairs/Ö24 + Hajek/ATV/APA):

37/35% ÖVP
23/25% SPÖ
16/17% FPÖ
11/11% NEOS
  9/10% Greens

Do you want to get vaccinated in general ?

65% Yes (Research Affairs/Ö24)
73% Yes (Hajek/ATV/APA)

Do you want to get vaccinated with the following vaccines (Research Affairs) ?

78% Yes - with Biontech/Pfizer
60% Yes - with Moderna
61% No  - with AstraZeneca

ÖVP-Greens job approval (Hajek)

42% approve
55% disapprove

86% of ÖVP voters and 67% of Green voters approve.

90% of FPÖ voters, 79% of SPÖ voters and 67% of NEOS voters disapprove.

There are also signs of a Absetzbewegung among the Greens:

A majority of Green voters (incl. me) now favour an SPÖ-Green-NEOS government.

Also, happiness with democracy in Austria has crashed over the past year:

Only 49% are happy with how democracy works in the country, 48% unhappy. That's down from 78% in April last year.

46% say that there's justice in Austria or that things are just, 45% think there's no justice in Austria.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 01:12:29 AM
Health Minister Rudy Anschober (Greens) has been sick and totally absent from work for a week now.

He once suffered a burnout already and there are rumours he might quit the stressful job soon.

Especially after the ÖVPs constant attacks and intrigant backstabbing against him and his office (aides).

Anschober is a good guy, who probably got worn out by the filthy Kurz and the disgusting ÖVP creatures supporting him.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125019763/streit-um-impfungenoevp-fordert-suspendierungen-im-gesundheitsressort


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 08:00:20 AM
28 Carinthia municipal runoffs today.

A first result from the city of Weißensee:

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20639.html

ÖVP pickup from FPÖ (2015).

Karoline Turnschek elected mayor with 58.5% in a 85.5% turnout runoff.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 08:38:05 AM
ÖVP picks up the city of Irschen, by defeating the incumbent SPÖ mayor.

Manfred Dullnig defeats mayor Gottfried Mandler by 57-43.

Mandler won outright back in 2015 with 68%.

Turnout in the runoff was higher (87%) than in the 1st round (85%).

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20611.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 08:56:34 AM
SPÖ pickup in the city of Kirchbach.

In the re-match from 2015, Markus Salcher defeats incumbent mayor Hermann Jantschgi (FPÖ) by 57-43.

It was the other way around in 2015 with 57-43 for the FPÖ guy.

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20306.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 10:36:17 AM
A sign of things to come in the capital Klagenfurt ?

In nearby Keutschach at the Lake, the Team Carinthia challenger defeats the incumbent mayor from the SPÖ by 52-48.

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20412.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 10:40:21 AM
In Steuerberg, the SPÖ challenger defeated the incumbent ÖVP mayor by 61-39.

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_21010.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 10:42:24 AM
Another pickup for the SPÖ from the ÖVP in Maria Saal:

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20418.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 10:47:22 AM
FPÖ pickup from the SPÖ in St. Georgen am Längsee:

Johann Grilz defeated the incumbent SPÖ mayor Konrad Seunig by 58-42.

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20523.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 11:18:04 AM
Independent pickup from SPÖ in Lavamünd.

Wolfgang Gallant (LWG) wins with 59-41 against Raphael Golez (SPÖ).

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20909.html

Meanwhile, in Reißeck and Klein St. Paul, the 2 incumbent SPÖ mayors Kurt Felicetti and Gabriele Dörflinger got easily re-elected.

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20644.html

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20513.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 11:47:37 AM
SPÖ defends Sittersdorf, Eberndorf, Bleiburg and St. Paul (not MN, but in the district of Wolfsberg).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 11:50:54 AM
Only 7/28 runoff results are left.

Among them, the 3 most important (Klagenfurt, Spittal an der Drau, Hermagor).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 11:54:36 AM
Big surprise in Seeboden („lake floor“), a city of 10.000, in the more rural NW !

The incumbent ÖVP mayor was defeated by the SPÖ candidate 48-52, after being heavily favoured after round one:

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20634.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 12:13:24 PM
Another major surprise in Obervellach !

Mayor Anita Gössnitzer (ÖVP) got 49.4% in the first round.

In the runoff today, she was defeated 43-57 by the SPÖ challenger Arnold Klammer.

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20627.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 01:35:25 PM
Big surprise in the 3 largest cities with runoffs today, among them the capital Klagenfurt.

The SPÖ is defeated in all 3, loses all 3 mayors.

Klagenfurt: 45-55
Spittal/Drau: 49-51
Hermagor: 49-51

In Klagenfurt and Spittal, 2 ex-mayors from the Team Carinthia won.

In Hermagor, the ÖVP candidate won (in his 3rd attempt to unseat the SPÖ incumbent).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 01:48:00 PM
The Klagenfurt result is without the postal votes, but Christian Scheider (TK) is so far ahead that mayor Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) cannot be re-elected anymore ...

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 01:59:42 PM
Losing the capital Klagenfurt is a major disaster for the SPÖ, but they got at least another consolation prize in a city of 12.000:

Maria Knauder defended her mayor post in St. Andrä with 53% against FPÖ challenger Gerald Edler.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 02:02:30 PM
The new (old) mayor of Klagenfurt, Christian Scheider, has a colourful party history:

#ex-FPÖ
#ex-BZÖ
#ex-Team Stronach
#then ex-FPÖ again (until last year)
#now Team Carinthia

He was also Jörg Haiderˋs tennis teacher.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2021, 11:46:56 PM
The Klagenfurt result is without the postal votes, but Christian Scheider (TK) is so far ahead that mayor Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) cannot be re-elected anymore ...

()

Incl. all postal votes, Scheider has won 53.5%-46.5%

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20101.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2021, 12:06:30 AM
Here is the composition of the 132 mayors in Carinthia, after the runoffs yesterday:

()

Of the „others“, 4 are from the TK and 1 from the Slovene minority.

8 remain „independent“.

That’s the most mayors for the ÖVP ever.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2021, 12:50:54 PM
Mayors by party in Austria since yesterday (map from Georg Ebner):

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2021, 01:05:03 PM
Carinthia mayors 2021 vs. 2015:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 19, 2021, 11:04:16 AM
Upper Austrian FPÖ leader Manfred Haimbuchner (42) has been admitted to the ICU because of a severe Covid infection:

()

https://www.nachrichten.at/politik/landespolitik/haimbuchner-intensiv;art383,3369535

Haimbuchner briefly attended a „welcome baby“ garage party a week ago of an FPÖ friend.

As a result, several other state FPÖlers also got infected (one of which was already vaccinated).

Upper Austria has state elections in the fall and Haimbuchner is a moderate for FPÖ standards.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2021, 12:40:07 PM
New "Heute" poll:

()

Austrians don't like the ÖVP-Green government, but also don't want the Grand Coalition back.

They also want the Sputnik vaccine and approve of the Green Pass.

They also think demonstrations should be forbidden or significantly limited during the time of the pandemic (FPÖ voters disapprove).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2021, 03:49:24 PM
Not a joke:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125389347/fpoe-buergermeister-startet-petition-fuer-aufnahme-von-fluechtlingen

The FPÖ mayor of Hohenems launched a petition to admit refugees from the Greek camps.

Quote
"We cities and municipalities are ready to make our contribution to a humanitarian solution and to take in children and women from these refugee camps. And we urgently appeal to the Austrian federal government to reconsider its negative attitude and to accept refugees in Austria."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 27, 2021, 04:53:47 AM
New „Profil“ poll shows Austrians are very liberal on blessing gay marriages in church:

64% say the CC should bless gay marriages
21% are neutral and don’t care what the CC does
13% are opposed to gay marriage blessings in church

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20210327_OTS0010/profil-umfrage-oesterreicher-fuer-homosexuellen-segnung

2 weeks ago, the Vatican said the CC can’t bless gay marriages:

https://www.npr.org/2021/03/15/977415222/illicit-for-catholic-church-to-bless-same-sex-marriages-vatican-says?t=1616838521472

The Innsbruck bishop for example strongly opposed the Vatican decree and issued an apology to gay couples wanting to marry and get a blessing in a Catholic Church:

https://religion.orf.at/stories/3205559/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 27, 2021, 03:49:40 PM
The influential Vienna mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) says that his party has to back Green President VdBs re-election (if he wants to run again next year).

That would rule out a SPÖ candidate against him.

https://orf.at/stories/3206945/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 28, 2021, 04:25:37 AM
A new Spectra/OÖN poll for the upcoming state elections in Upper Austria is out.

I will post the findings later.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 28, 2021, 06:25:08 AM
A new Spectra/OÖN poll for the upcoming state elections in Upper Austria is out.

I will post the findings later.

Here is the full poll:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: bigic on March 28, 2021, 06:55:26 AM
Satire ?

Quote
Kickl criticizes Kurz for "EU bashing"

"Who should still trust this Chancellor who betrays his partners both at the national and EU level and stabs them in the back when it is for his own benefit ?" asks FPÖ club chairman Herbert Kickl in a press release in response to the statements of the ÖVP Chancellor Sebastian Kurz on the EU's vaccine procurement.

The FPÖ criticized Kurz for his "desperate EU bashing". This is "implausible. In November, the Chancellor applauded Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during a video conference, who spoke of vaccine procurement as one of the great success stories of the EU," says Kickl, "just one day after a poll that was catastrophic for the Chancellor became known in which almost two thirds of all respondents distrust the vaccine from AstraZeneca, which is mainly bought by the government, Sebastian Kurz accidentally discovered the guilt of the EU."


Not a joke:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125389347/fpoe-buergermeister-startet-petition-fuer-aufnahme-von-fluechtlingen

The FPÖ mayor of Hohenems launched a petition to admit refugees from the Greek camps.

Quote
"We cities and municipalities are ready to make our contribution to a humanitarian solution and to take in children and women from these refugee camps. And we urgently appeal to the Austrian federal government to reconsider its negative attitude and to accept refugees in Austria."

Is this the start of FPÖ's political transformation?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia statewide municipal elections (28th February 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 28, 2021, 07:51:19 AM
Satire ?

Quote
Kickl criticizes Kurz for "EU bashing"

"Who should still trust this Chancellor who betrays his partners both at the national and EU level and stabs them in the back when it is for his own benefit ?" asks FPÖ club chairman Herbert Kickl in a press release in response to the statements of the ÖVP Chancellor Sebastian Kurz on the EU's vaccine procurement.

The FPÖ criticized Kurz for his "desperate EU bashing". This is "implausible. In November, the Chancellor applauded Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during a video conference, who spoke of vaccine procurement as one of the great success stories of the EU," says Kickl, "just one day after a poll that was catastrophic for the Chancellor became known in which almost two thirds of all respondents distrust the vaccine from AstraZeneca, which is mainly bought by the government, Sebastian Kurz accidentally discovered the guilt of the EU."


Not a joke:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125389347/fpoe-buergermeister-startet-petition-fuer-aufnahme-von-fluechtlingen

The FPÖ mayor of Hohenems launched a petition to admit refugees from the Greek camps.

Quote
"We cities and municipalities are ready to make our contribution to a humanitarian solution and to take in children and women from these refugee camps. And we urgently appeal to the Austrian federal government to reconsider its negative attitude and to accept refugees in Austria."

Is this the start of FPÖ's political transformation?

Political transformation into what ?

Just because 2 mayors (one of them arguably an important one) say refugees welcome, that’s not a trend within the FPÖ.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 28, 2021, 08:00:23 AM
A new Spectra/OÖN poll for the upcoming state elections in Upper Austria is out.

I will post the findings later.

Here is the full poll:

()

Read more about the Upper Austria state election here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Upper_Austrian_state_election

And here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=352752.msg7839919#msg7839919

Some important findings from the poll:

# 85% turnout expected (which I think is far too high, +3% vs. 2015 during the „refugee“ election)
# Gov. Stelzer (ÖVP) very popular
# FPÖ still doing much better than Austria-wide
# Greens doing really well there despite national headwinds
# SPÖ going slightly up, but still below 2015 levels
# NEOS doing badly, frontrunner is unknown and even young people vote ÖVP or Green


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 31, 2021, 12:55:00 PM
New Puls24/IFDD poll:

()

Worst result for the ÖVP since fall 2019, also kinda the worst numbers for the Greens since then.

All opposition parties are gaining ground.

43% say that ÖVP-Greens will fall apart before their term is up in 2024
42% say it will hold the full term (lol)

Quote
Die Online-Umfrage wurde vom Institut für Demoskopie & Datenanalyse im Auftrag von PULS 24 durchgeführt. Im Zeitraum vom 24. Bis zum 30. März 2021 wurden dafür 802 Personen online befragt. Die Schwankungsbreite liegt bei +/- 3,5 Prozent.

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/die-grosse-puls-24-umfrage-oevp-mit-niedrigstem-wert-seit-2019-liegt-aber-immer-noch-deutlich-voran/230814


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on March 31, 2021, 07:27:51 PM
New Puls24/IFDD poll:

()

Worst result for the ÖVP since fall 2019, also kinda the worst numbers for the Greens since then.

All opposition parties are gaining ground.

43% say that ÖVP-Greens will fall apart before their term is up in 2024
42% say it will hold the full term (lol)

Quote
Die Online-Umfrage wurde vom Institut für Demoskopie & Datenanalyse im Auftrag von PULS 24 durchgeführt. Im Zeitraum vom 24. Bis zum 30. März 2021 wurden dafür 802 Personen online befragt. Die Schwankungsbreite liegt bei +/- 3,5 Prozent.

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/die-grosse-puls-24-umfrage-oevp-mit-niedrigstem-wert-seit-2019-liegt-aber-immer-noch-deutlich-voran/230814
If greens ovp fall apart will the ovp team up with the fpo or go for new election so Kurtz and go for a chance to screw neons too


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on March 31, 2021, 11:11:20 PM
If greens ovp fall apart will the ovp team up with the fpo or go for new election so Kurtz and go for a chance to screw neons too

Maybe with the SPÖ.

Or new elections.

And then nobody knows what will happen: maybe an Israel scenario.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: TheSaint250 on April 02, 2021, 07:02:08 AM
Why is NEOS on the rise?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on April 02, 2021, 08:43:36 AM

Mostly because A) they are an opposition party and B) they are an alternative for (younger) people who have enough from the system parties ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ. There could even be some switching from former Green voters to NEOS. An increasing number of people want to see NEOS in a future government (especially after their Salzburg and Vienna state government participation) and see what they can accomplish.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2021, 02:05:05 PM
This is dangerous:

Austrians lose trust in democracy, the political culture in the country and its institutions.

A Market poll conducted in weekly waves since last year has shown trust in all the indicators above fall to record lows.

()

https://www.market.at/newsroom/ein-jahr-corona-vertrauen-in-staatliche-institutionen-schwer-beschaedigt/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Carinthia municipal election (Runoffs: March 14)
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2021, 02:10:05 PM
It is interesting to note that in previous election years with such bad indicators on democracy or the political culture, voters strongly chose the FPÖ as a protest vote.

Not so this time.

And the indicators are as bad as never before since WW2.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2021, 02:27:20 PM
New OGM poll for the „Kurier“:

()

Chancellor vote:

()

Coalition preference:

()

https://www.ogm.at/2021/04/03/sonntagsfrage-kurier-april/

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-zeigt-umsturz-im-waehlerverhalten/401340597


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 06, 2021, 01:25:02 PM
New Market/Standard poll has the SPÖ at the highest level in 2 years:

36% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
12% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% Others

48% ÖVP-Greens
51% SPÖ-FPÖ-NEOS

51% ÖVP-FPÖ
48% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125587095/tuerkis-gruene-koalition-hat-laut-umfrage-ihre-mehrheit-verloren


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 07, 2021, 08:45:18 PM
Voters don’t really care so far, but long-term it doesn’t look good for Kurz:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/vaccine-row-and-domestic-leaks-tarnish-austrian-leader-s-image-1.4527415


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 09, 2021, 07:45:29 AM
Chancellor Kurz has now fallen from sky-high popularity ratings to 5th place of the most trusted Austrian politicians, according to pollster OGM:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125696730/vertrauen-in-die-bundesregierung-schwindet-weiter-stark

https://www.ogm.at/2021/04/09/ogm-apa-vertrauensindex-bundespolitiker-april-2021/

This is because of the recent Postenschacher scandal involving the ÖVP (corruption and nepotism through trading and staffing of political offices with ÖVP cronies).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 10, 2021, 07:23:47 AM
ÖVP drops to 33% in new „Profil“ magazine poll.

That’s the lowest in more than 2 years.

The FPÖ reaches a new high of 19% and has recovered from their Ibiza-Video scandal in 2019.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-und-kanzler-kurz-verlieren/401345966

Tender Branson analysis:

The Kurz-ÖVP gained a lot of new voters after his takeover in early 2017: first, a lot of traditional soft FPÖ voters who found the Strache/Kickl policies too radical and after the Covid crisis hit early last year, the ÖVP ballooned to 45% - attracting SPÖ/FPÖ and NEOS voters.

They have lost all of the latter again during the past half year with their bad Covid management and now they are even losing their foundation of soft FPÖ voters that Kurz managed to bind to the party after the 2015-16 migrant invasion ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 10, 2021, 02:29:18 PM
A new „Triple M“ poll for Vienna shows the new left-liberal SPÖ/NEOS government gaining, the FPÖ recovering as well and the federal government parties ÖVP/Greens losing support:

()

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/sechs-monate-nach-der-wahl-rot-pink-legt-weiter-zu/401347172


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Astatine on April 10, 2021, 07:23:51 PM
Whoever is bored can watch the whole footage of the Ibiza videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1y1GtNgGiAUBfQz87ltjag


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 11, 2021, 07:15:24 AM
ÖVP drops to 33% in new „Profil“ magazine poll.

That’s the lowest in more than 2 years.

The FPÖ reaches a new high of 19% and has recovered from their Ibiza-Video scandal in 2019.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-und-kanzler-kurz-verlieren/401345966

Tender Branson analysis:

The Kurz-ÖVP gained a lot of new voters after his takeover in early 2017: first, a lot of traditional soft FPÖ voters who found the Strache/Kickl policies too radical and after the Covid crisis hit early last year, the ÖVP ballooned to 45% - attracting SPÖ/FPÖ and NEOS voters.

They have lost all of the latter again during the past half year with their bad Covid management and now they are even losing their foundation of soft FPÖ voters that Kurz managed to bind to the party after the 2015-16 migrant invasion ...

Though you didn't mention this, it shows the OVP ahead of the SPO by "only" 33-24 - when was the last time they had that lead in single figures?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 11, 2021, 09:29:20 AM
ÖVP drops to 33% in new „Profil“ magazine poll.

That’s the lowest in more than 2 years.

The FPÖ reaches a new high of 19% and has recovered from their Ibiza-Video scandal in 2019.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-und-kanzler-kurz-verlieren/401345966

Tender Branson analysis:

The Kurz-ÖVP gained a lot of new voters after his takeover in early 2017: first, a lot of traditional soft FPÖ voters who found the Strache/Kickl policies too radical and after the Covid crisis hit early last year, the ÖVP ballooned to 45% - attracting SPÖ/FPÖ and NEOS voters.

They have lost all of the latter again during the past half year with their bad Covid management and now they are even losing their foundation of soft FPÖ voters that Kurz managed to bind to the party after the 2015-16 migrant invasion ...

Though you didn't mention this, it shows the OVP ahead of the SPO by "only" 33-24 - when was the last time they had that lead in single figures?

Exactly 2 years ago.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 13, 2021, 11:00:41 AM
Austria's health minister resigns, saying he's overworked

()

Quote
Austria's health minister announced his resignation Tuesday, saying that he couldn't continue in the grueling job of helping lead the country's coronavirus response because of persistent personal health problems caused by overwork.

Rudolf Anschober, 60, had been health minister since January 2020, when his Green party became the junior partner in a governing coalition under conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

The soft-spoken minister has been one of the main faces of Austria's coronavirus response, which has gathered mixed reviews. Wolfgang Mueckstein, a Vienna-based doctor, was named as Anschober’s successor.

Anschober, who suffered a burnout nine years ago, said he had experienced two episodes of sudden fatigue in the past month, as well as high blood pressure and tinnitus.

“My impression is that it isn’t 15 months, more like 15 years,” he said of his time in office.

Anschober said he had “clearly overworked” and hadn't felt “completely fit” for several weeks. His condition was not burnout, he added, but doctors advised him to take a break.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/austrias-health-minister-resigns-overworked-77039270

Wolfgang Mückstein (a doctor, also from the Greens) will replace him:

()

https://orf.at/stories/3209005

Sigrid Pilz was also asked, but she declined. With Pilz, our cabinet would have been majority female again, like at the start of the government.

Too bad Anschober has been worn out in such a manner by Covid and the Kurz-ÖVP ... he was a good man in politics.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2021, 12:29:03 PM
There’s talk of internal divisions in the FPÖ.

And if that’s not enough: Strache is back and has something to say as well.

Strache wants to go back to the FPÖ and supports Kickl

Quote
Ex-FPÖ boss Heinz-Christian Strache wants to return to the FPÖ and stands behind club boss Herbert Kickl and against party chairman Norbert Hofer.

Strache accuses his successor Hofer of “cowardice” in the mask dispute with Kickl because he skipped the club meeting. "I am convinced that as party chairman he is unable to master this task and I also believe that he cannot do it for health reasons," said Strache in an interview with oe24.TV.

When asked whether he wanted to return to the FPÖ, Strache replied: “Yes. We are a family together, even if there is an argument. I am part of this family and in truth it should be officially done. ”In any case, he shakes hands with Kickl and the FPÖ. "Let's see if Kickl himself is ready to take on responsibility and trust himself to be in the front row as chairman."

Haimbuchner stands behind FPÖ chairman Hofer

The Upper Austrian Deputy Governor Manfred Haimbuchner (FPÖ) stood behind FPÖ Chairman Norbert Hofer in his first interview after his life-threatening Covid illness.

https://orf.at/#/stories/3209595

Despite all of this, the FPÖ is gaining recently because of frustration with the government.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2021, 12:04:17 AM
New* Steiermark (Styria) poll by IMAD for the "Kronen Zeitung":

34.1% ÖVP (2019 state election: 36.1%)
22.9% SPÖ (23.0%)
17.9% FPÖ (17.5%)
11.5% Greens (12.1%)
  8.5% NEOS (5.4%)
  5.2% KPÖ (6.0%)

* Actually not "new", it was conducted in February/March.

https://www.krone.at/2397898


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2021, 06:18:33 AM
There’s talk of internal divisions in the FPÖ.

Today, Vienna-FPÖ leader Dominik Nepp got re-elected with 97.86% of the 385 delegates who cast valid ballots.

Nepp and guest speakers Norbert Hofer (Austrian FPÖ-leader) and mask-wearing Herbert Kickl (parliamentary FPÖ-leader) demonstrated party unity, saying there is no internal infighting.

Instead, Hofer hinted at „a huge scandal and revelations in May that will heavily impact the government, especially the Kurz-ÖVP.“

Whatever this means ...

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3100744


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on April 27, 2021, 10:47:28 AM
The Upper Austria state + city councils + mayoral elections will officially be held on September 26, together with the German election.

https://ooe.orf.at/stories/3101115

That is only a coincidence though, Upper Austria has a 6-year term, Germany a 4-year term and it was simply the last possible Sunday in that term (state politicians usually want to complete the full term).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Flyersfan232 on April 28, 2021, 12:13:14 AM
New Market/Standard poll has the SPÖ at the highest level in 2 years:

36% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
12% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% Others

48% ÖVP-Greens
51% SPÖ-FPÖ-NEOS

51% ÖVP-FPÖ
48% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125587095/tuerkis-gruene-koalition-hat-laut-umfrage-ihre-mehrheit-verloren
Ovp fpo neos?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - September (or so) 2021: Upper Austria state election
Post by: Tender Branson on April 28, 2021, 12:24:43 PM
New Market/Standard poll has the SPÖ at the highest level in 2 years:

36% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
12% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% Others

48% ÖVP-Greens
51% SPÖ-FPÖ-NEOS

51% ÖVP-FPÖ
48% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125587095/tuerkis-gruene-koalition-hat-laut-umfrage-ihre-mehrheit-verloren
Ovp fpo neos?

LOL no.

Hipster NEOS ain’t sharing the bed with Nazis.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on April 28, 2021, 03:04:28 PM
Major Austrian politicians at the Covid test:




Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on April 29, 2021, 12:57:03 PM
Actual politics is quite boring at the moment, so the most intriguing political gamble right now is the next ÖSV President.

The ÖSV is the Austrian Ski Federation.

Peter Schröcksnadel, ÖSV-President since over 30 years (from the powerful Tyrol state branch), is finally retiring in June.

Schröcksnadel is a multi-millionaire businessman and a controversial, autocratic figure - similar to Imperator Palpatine.

()

His "chosen" successor is Michael Walchhofer (from the 2nd-most powerful state branch Salzburg) and a former Austrian skiing legend.

Apparently though, Schröcksi doesn't want to go quiety and still prefers to meddle out of his retirement behind the scences.

Walchhofer seems to have fallen out of favour with Schröcksi because "of his closeness to the ÖVP" (lol) - considering Schröcksi is an ÖVPler as well. He says "he wants a party-politics-free ÖSV."

Therefore, another Austrian skiing legend, Renate Götschl (from the Styrian state branch, also ÖVP) has entered the race.

Schröcksi has the backing of Tyrol, Vorarlberg, Vienna and Styria - meaning he needs only one additional state to push Götschl to victory as the first female ÖSV-President.

The talk is that Schröcksi can still have some influence over Götschl from his retirement couch, whereas Walchhofer would go a completely new independent way forward.

()
Walchhofer, Schröcksnadel, Götschl

So, why not a Doppelspitze ?

:P

Or a compromise candidate ?

This should be fun.

Meanwhile, the Swiss and other top ski nations are breaking out the popcorn at this spectacle.

()

The 9 states will meet and vote in June.

https://kurier.at/sport/wintersport/michael-walchhofer-zu-rauen-toenen-in-oesv-praesidentenwahl-unvorstellbar/401367080


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2021, 02:42:53 PM
ATV/APA Trend Poll:

33% ÖVP
25% SPÖ
18% FPÖ
13% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% Others

51% ÖVP-FPÖ
47% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS

https://www.atv.at/oesterreichtrend/


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2021, 01:55:31 PM
Major earthquake in the Tyrol state government today:

https://www.nachrichten.at/politik/innenpolitik/in-tirol-kuendigen-an-einem-tag-zwei-landesraete-den-job;art385,3394106

2 state cabinet members from the ÖVP (for health and for economic matters) announced their resignations today.

This comes on the day the „Standard“ newspaper unveiled a possible mega-scandal in the state about hundreds of thousands of possibly falsified PCR tests during the last months, contracted by the ÖVP-led government to a Vienna mobile lab.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000126386313/tiroler-pcr-testskandal-wirft-immer-neue-fragen-auf

As if Ischgl wasn’t enough for the image of Tyrol ...


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2021, 11:09:24 PM
A new Upper Austria poll by GMK for the weekly „Rundschau“ has been briefly posted and then deleted again (maybe it will be out tomorrow when the paper is sent out).

It says ÖVP and Greens in the state can be happy ...

Upper Austria votes on September 26, together with Germany.

I will post the results later.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2021, 11:30:04 AM
A new Upper Austria poll by GMK for the weekly „Rundschau“ has been briefly posted and then deleted again (maybe it will be out tomorrow when the paper is sent out).

It says ÖVP and Greens in the state can be happy ...

Upper Austria votes on September 26, together with Germany.

I will post the results later.

()

Direct vote for Governor:

()

72% approve of the government work (in Upper Austria, there’s an all-party government - but ÖVP-FPÖ have a working agreement in parliament).

73% say that the federal ÖVP-Green government performance will impact the decision-making of voters for the state election

https://www.meinbezirk.at/oberoesterreich/c-politik/ergebnisse-der-bezirksrundschau-umfrage-zur-landtagswahl_a4627976


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 07, 2021, 07:48:00 AM
Another new Upper Austria poll by Unique Research for „Heute“:

39% ÖVP (+2.6 vs. 2015 election)
21% FPÖ (-9.4)
21% SPÖ (+2.6)
12% Greens (+1.7)
  6% NEOS (+2.5)
  1% Others

https://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/210507_HEU/6

NEOS would enter the Upper Austria state parliament for the first time and it seems the FPÖ is losing to all other parties after their strong migrant wave election result in late 2015.

21% is still very good for them, it seems they have a solid base there and they might remain the strongest state party of all 9 states.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 12, 2021, 01:02:39 PM
Chancellor Kurz under investigation:

Austria’s Kurz Faces Charges on Testimony in Ibiza Probe

Quote
Austrian prosecutors informed Chancellor Sebastian Kurz he’s suspected of providing false testimony to a parliamentary committee formed to investigate the political scandal that toppled his former government.

Kurz said he and his chief of staff face potential charges on lying to lawmakers probing the so-called Ibiza affair in 2019 that involved his junior coalition partner. Speaking to reporters before a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, the Austrian chancellor denied wrongdoing and said he wouldn’t step down even if the investigation led to charges.

“I always answered all questions truthfully,” Kurz told reporters in Vienna, adding that he is working under the assumption that Austria’s white-collar crime prosecutors will now investigate.

A spokesman for the prosecutors confirmed the investigation into Kurz but said it was too early to say whether charges would be brought.

Prosecutors found discrepancies between Kurz’s statements in the committee and text messages between Kurz, Finance Minister Gernot Bluemel and other associates, according to a 58-page document seen by Bloomberg News that details the preliminary findings of the probe.

While Kurz stated that he was only tangentially involved in the creation of Austria’s new government holding company and the selection of its CEO and supervisory board, the messages show that Kurz was managing even small details of the process and was closely involved in drafting laws and picking personnel.

Austria’s largest ruling party has been at the center of scrutiny for its handling of the probe into corruption allegations triggered by leaked videos involving members of the far-right Freedom Party. Finance Minister Gernot Bluemel has been criticized by opposition parties for failing to immediately comply with a constitutional court order to hand over a batch of emails.

The government delivered the documents this week after a rare call from the nation’s President to comply with the order. Bluemel said the delay was due to privacy concerns for Finance Ministry workers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-12/austria-s-kurz-faces-charges-on-false-testimony-in-ibiza-probe


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 15, 2021, 10:16:31 AM
Liberal, centrist NEOS-leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger in an interview about future coalitions:

()

Quote
Interviewer: Some hope for a "progressive majority" beyond the ÖVP. On the other hand, one can see in the surveys: If the SPÖ is on the rise, the Neos shrink, and vice versa. That will probably not work with the majority.

BMR: It used to be said that the ÖVP and the Neos are communicating vessels. If you look at our development, we should be doing something right: We started in 2013 with five percent, now we are at ten percent in surveys and are in two state governments.

Interviewer: That is not a contradiction in terms of the fact that the SPÖ is weakening.

BMR: There has been a right-of-center majority in Austria for some time. The question is whether it will always stay that way. One of the reasons why Neos exist is that we stand in the middle and want to make alternative majorities possible. We govern in Salzburg with the ÖVP and the Greens, in Vienna with the SPÖ. I'm not necessarily aiming for a left-of-center majority. In many areas it is certainly easier for us to move right-of-center when it comes to reforms, in others it is easier for us to move to the left.

Interviewer: In the ÖVP it is said that the Neos have moved to the left and "it can be fine with us".

BMR: The ÖVP moved to the right, we remained in the center. But of course: the question of whether one can help children in Moria has stronger links with the left. I don't get this attitude of the ÖVP. I can be restrictive in refugee policy and still look. It's about children! In terms of economic policy, however, I have the impression that the ÖVP has moved to the left. See: Cost what it may and be proud of increasing expenses. That amazes me, and I'm also a little scared.

Interviewer: Before the Vienna elections, they said that Neos would not be as docile in a government as the Greens in the federal government. Now the Neos in Vienna are silent, although they wanted to pin climate policy on the flag, on major projects such as Stadtstrasse and Lobau tunnel. That was already decided, they say.

BMR: Some things had actually already been decided, so we can't change anything. When it comes to climate protection in particular, we, and the SPÖ too, are very aware that Vienna has to go a long way. But: We got into the government and have not left crisis mode since, you have to see that too. Nevertheless, some accents have been set, such as the opening of gastronomy at markets on Sunday.

https://www.news.at/a/politik-ideen-oevp-durchsichtig-plump-12034693


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: President Johnson on May 15, 2021, 01:29:15 PM
I hope the Greens pull out of the coalition soon and a snap election taking place, resulting in a Pamela Rendi-Wagner chancellorship. Ideally, it would be a SPÖ-Greens-NEOS coalition which Germany should follow in September. I know, not that realistic, but I can dream?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 15, 2021, 02:14:07 PM
I hope the Greens pull out of the coalition soon and a snap election taking place, resulting in a Pamela Rendi-Wagner chancellorship. Ideally, it would be a SPÖ-Greens-NEOS coalition which Germany should follow in September. I know, not that realistic, but I can dream?

It’s also the coalition I would prefer, but it would take a more continued erosion of the ÖVP in light of Kurzˋs recent scandals.

Not only that, those disappointed ÖVP voters also don’t have to switch to the FPÖ in protest, but vote for the 3 other parties instead.

Currently, SPÖ-Greens-NEOS are stuck at 43-48% depending on the poll, which is not enough yet for a majority.

Austria didn’t have a right-wing minority since 35 years, so it will be really hard for the 3 parties to achieve a majority ...


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2021, 01:50:55 PM
FPÖ-Kickl wants a 4-party government to avoid early elections in case Chancellor Kurz gets charged for false testimony:

Quote
Kickl would be "available" as the FPÖ top candidate

FPÖ club chairman Herbert Kickl would be ready to be the top candidate of his party in a national council election. “Of course I would be available,” he said, according to the advance notice on oe24.tv.

However, this decision will be "made as the last decision to get the most out of the respective strategic considerations".

As an alternative to a possible new election, Kickl brought a four-party government made up of the FPÖ, SPÖ, NEOS and Greens into play. This has nothing to do with revenge on the former government partner ÖVP, "but with establishing a normal situation," said Kickl.

https://orf.at/stories/3213365


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2021, 01:26:39 PM
Actual politics is quite boring at the moment, so the most intriguing political gamble right now is the next ÖSV President ...

This has been settled last night after hours of debate ...

Neither Walchhofer nor Götschl will become the new Ski Federation President.

The 9 states settled for a compromise candidate, with Karl Schmidhofer being elected with the votes of 6 of the 9 state delegations. The states of Tyrol and Vorarlberg (and Styria, where he’s from) abstained.

Schmidhofer is the President of the Styria branch and didn’t vote for himself.

He’s also a current member of the Austrian parliament for the ÖVP (he will resign his seat).

()

He’s also the uncle of Austrian World Champion Nicole Schmidhofer.

https://sport.orf.at/stories/3077111/

https://sport.orf.at/stories/3077132/


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2021, 11:02:47 PM
The Social Democratic student branch (= VSStÖ) has won the May 18-20 university student parliament election, which is held every 2 years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Students_of_Austria

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=445302.msg8098908#msg8098908

The federal government parties ÖVP+Greens (and their student parliament vehicles AG+GRAS) were the losers while all other lists gained.

The last time that the VSStÖ was the largest faction was in 2005.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2021, 08:56:04 AM
New poll (Research Affairs/Ö24) for the Upper Austria state election in 4 months:

38% ÖVP (+1.6 vs. 2015)
25% FPÖ (-5.4)
20% SPÖ (+1.6)
12% Greens (+1.7)
  4% NEOS (+0.5)
  1% Others

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Upper_Austrian_state_election


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2021, 11:59:03 PM
A new Vorarlberg poll (Berndt for the „VN“ newspaper):

()


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2021, 10:22:52 AM
So, Chancellor Kurz (ÖVP) says the mask mandate will end soon in Austria.

Then, Health Minister Mückstein (Greens) says „Not so fast !“ (no sooner than next year).

Then, Tourism Minister Köstinger (ÖVP) rebukes Mückstein and says „we cannot tell adult people to wear masks forever and only to meet with 3 other people, when they are vaxxed !“.

No surprise the FPÖ and others are gaining.

Says the FPÖ today:

Quote
Bankruptcy, bad luck and breakdown coalition

According to the Styrian FPÖ state party leader Mario Kunasek, turquoise-green is sinking into a constant dispute: "We are evidently governed by a contentious force. A bankruptcy, bad luck and breakdown coalition that plunges Austria into permanent chaos with its dilettantism. The ministers and the chancellor should actually coordinate their statements beforehand and not cause massive uncertainty among citizens and entrepreneurs through different statements. The unprofessionalism of these turquoise-green ministerial actors is unworthy of the Republic of Austria! ", said the regional party chairman about the current events.

The words from the other parties are not really much nicer ...


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2021, 11:27:28 PM
Norbert Hofer not ruling out a re-match with President Van der Bellen ?

Hear hear:

Quote
I will make this decision after the election in Upper Austria. I also have to discuss it with my family.

In any case, that doesn't sound like it's completely out of the world.

No, that's not entirely out of the world.

Do you think you could win against Alexander Van der Bellen ?

It used to be said that it is impossible to win against an incumbent president. Much has become possible in the meantime. I think it's doable. But it wouldn't be an easy task.

And further below in the interview:

Quote
How do you assess the corona management of the turquoise-green government?

A lot of things have already gone wrong. This also applies to the Federal President. Not only can one say that the Constitution is beautiful and elegant. It must also be defended and intervened when it is broken. A Federal President can either take a position or he can invite the government to meet and hold talks. I hear that Alexander Van der Bellen thought every day about when he would finally speak up. I would have been more involved as president. I think the reluctance was too great. But his biggest mistake was to set up a government that doesn't have a majority in parliament. Of course it was gone after a few days.

https://www.krone.at/2419828


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: President Johnson on May 23, 2021, 02:11:08 PM
Hofer would lose by a wider margin than last time, I assume. If he'd even make it into a runoff.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Tender Branson on May 23, 2021, 03:10:11 PM
Hofer would lose by a wider margin than last time, I assume. If he'd even make it into a runoff.

Yes, by 35-65 or so. Maybe 40-60. Maybe 45-55 if VdB makes a few stupid comments.

Hofer would make it into the runoff if ÖVP and SPÖ would support VdB and not run their own candidates.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Astatine on May 27, 2021, 03:02:17 PM
R.I.P. this thread.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Flyersfan232 on May 28, 2021, 04:57:56 AM
Norbert Hofer not ruling out a re-match with President Van der Bellen ?

Hear hear:

Quote
I will make this decision after the election in Upper Austria. I also have to discuss it with my family.

In any case, that doesn't sound like it's completely out of the world.

No, that's not entirely out of the world.

Do you think you could win against Alexander Van der Bellen ?

It used to be said that it is impossible to win against an incumbent president. Much has become possible in the meantime. I think it's doable. But it wouldn't be an easy task.

And further below in the interview:

Quote
How do you assess the corona management of the turquoise-green government?

A lot of things have already gone wrong. This also applies to the Federal President. Not only can one say that the Constitution is beautiful and elegant. It must also be defended and intervened when it is broken. A Federal President can either take a position or he can invite the government to meet and hold talks. I hear that Alexander Van der Bellen thought every day about when he would finally speak up. I would have been more involved as president. I think the reluctance was too great. But his biggest mistake was to set up a government that doesn't have a majority in parliament. Of course it was gone after a few days.

https://www.krone.at/2419828

What about the avb and others?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 29, 2021, 05:29:33 AM

If its OK to ask - what happened?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Astatine on May 29, 2021, 05:32:13 AM
Tender was permabanned for creating a sock to avoid a temporary mute.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 30, 2021, 05:47:02 AM
Oh dear, why do people do silly things like that?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Astatine on September 26, 2021, 09:14:44 AM
First exit poll of the Upper Austria state elections:

ÖVP 37.7 (+1.3)
FPÖ 20.2 % (-10.1)
SPÖ 18.3 (-0.1)
Greens 11.4 (+0.4)
MFG 7.5 (+7.5)
NEOS 3.9 (+0.4)

NEOS currently narrowly fails the 4 percent threshold. MFG is a new party opposing any kind of measures against Covid-19.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Unimog on September 26, 2021, 09:51:40 AM
I think some Linz results are still missing, so the NEO might get > 4,0%


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 26, 2021, 10:36:34 AM
Communists (KPÖ) win Graz city council election in SHOCK result:

29% KPÖ (+9)
26% ÖVP (-12)
17% Greens (+7)
11% FPÖ (-5)
10% SPÖ (n.c.)
  5% NEOS (+1)

Graz is the 2nd largest city and its the first time they won an election there.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 26, 2021, 10:47:19 AM
Upper Austria (new forecast):

37.7% ÖVP (+1.3%)
19.6% FPÖ (-10.7%)
18.7% SPÖ (+0.3%)
12.1% Greens (+1.8%)
  6.4% MFG (+6.4%)
  4.2% NEOS (+0.7%)
  1.4% Others (+0.2%)

Participation: 76.1% (-5.5%)

Everyone over 4% makes it.

The success of the new vaccination-sceptic MFG is a big surprise to everyone.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 26, 2021, 10:52:27 AM
MFG = Menschen, Freiheit, Grundrechte (People, Freedom, Basic Rights)

MFG in German also translates to „Mit freundlichen Grüßen“ (kind regards).

:)

PS: their new voters are primarily ex-FPÖ, but also esoteric tinfoil-hat wearing people.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 26, 2021, 01:59:44 PM
Upper Austria is almost fully counted.

Still virtually the same result.

The conservative ÖVP might re-enter a coalition with the FPÖ again (because their junior partner got decimated a lot today).

Or choose the SPÖ, or the Greens.

The ORF voter analysis poll says ÖVP voters prefer a continuation of government with the FPÖ.

The voter turnout is now at 77%, very good for a regional election & similar to turnout in Germany today, which had a more important election.

- - -

Meanwhile in Graz (300.000 people):

After all votes got counted, excluding mail votes (tomorrow), the Communist Party won a HUGE and stunning victory that nobody saw coming !

The conservative mayor of Graz stepped down a while ago.

Chancellor Kurz called the win of the Communists a „threat“.

KPÖ + Greens + SPÖ could form a leftist government now.

The success of the KPÖ is because of city councilor Elke Kahr, who became HUGELY popular in recent years.

As city councilor for housing, she welcomed 150 (!) people per week (!) and advised them on all things related to housing, rents, eviction protection etc.

KPÖ politicians are not only down to earth and trustworthy, but also donated most of their salary to people in need ...

This success today was long in the making as you can see.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 26, 2021, 02:18:37 PM
As a result of the Upper Austria election today, the ÖVP will gain a seat from the FPÖ in the federal Bundesrat (the 2nd chamber of parliament next to the Nationalrat).

The Bundesrat represents the states and their election results.

With the gain of 1 seat for the ÖVP, the Austrian ÖVP-Green government will now have a majority in that 2nd chamber as well, making it easier for them to pass new laws.

For example, one of their next big laws will be a tax cut with ecological consequences for car owners: gas prices will go up, as will taxes and energy costs for companies to limit greenhouse gas emissions. If the ÖVP approves the Green proposal. In return, taxes for small and middle income earners will get lowered and a nationwide public transportation ticket for 365€ will be introduced by January 1, 2022.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 26, 2021, 02:35:49 PM
Among young voters (16-30), the Greens are the strongest party, says the ORF.

Among voters with a university degree, the FPÖ gets only 4%.

Among voters who have an apprenticeship as their highest degree, the FPÖ gets 40%.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 26, 2021, 11:26:59 PM
Anti-Vaxers, Communists Surprise in Austrian Regional Ballots

By Zoe Schneeweiss
26. September 2021, 21:26 MESZ

- Country’s second-biggest city may get first communist mayor
- Vaccine-skeptic MFG group set to get seats in Upper Austria

Quote
Niche parties surprised in Austrian regional elections on Sunday, reflecting turbulent voting dynamics in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Communist Party, which hasn’t had a parliamentary representation at the federal level since 1959, is set to unseat the center-right mayor in Graz, Austria’s second-largest city.

Elke Kahr received more than 29% of votes, according to partial results. That compares with 26% for the incumbent mayor from Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s People’s Party, a 12 percentage-point drop compared with its previous election tally in 2017.

[etc.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-26/anti-vaxers-communists-surprise-in-austrian-regional-ballots


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 26, 2021, 11:41:28 PM
Final Upper Austria results (turnout: 76.4%, similar to Germany):

https://orf.at/wahl/ooe21/ergebnisse

Graz results (excl. mail vote):

https://www.wahlergebnis.graz.at/


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Not Me, Us on September 27, 2021, 12:18:05 AM
Funny that the second biggest city in Austria is being run by communists. You’d never see that in the US.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 27, 2021, 03:44:47 AM
Thank you, Tender!


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Hnv1 on September 27, 2021, 04:42:00 AM
Funny that the second biggest city in Austria is being run by communists. You’d never see that in the US.
Wasn’t Milwaukee run by a socialist mayor well into the 80’s?

So what exactly is preventing the KPÖ from lifting up in federal elections? There’s definitely room to the left of the SPÖ


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 27, 2021, 12:29:14 PM
Funny that the second biggest city in Austria is being run by communists. You’d never see that in the US.

They only won the election so far.

It remains unclear if the established parties will work together with them.

Elke Kahr and the Communists have previously been very reluctant to enter coalitions in the event of a win (they were caught by surprise too yesterday).

Today Kahr said she could see herself becoming mayor of Graz though, talking with the ÖVP first. But the ÖVP has ruled out working with the KPÖ.

It needs to be said that Graz is a special case: only there the KPÖ is a thing. No other big Austrian city has the KPÖ over 3%.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 27, 2021, 12:32:21 PM
Funny that the second biggest city in Austria is being run by communists. You’d never see that in the US.
Wasn’t Milwaukee run by a socialist mayor well into the 80’s?

So what exactly is preventing the KPÖ from lifting up in federal elections? There’s definitely room to the left of the SPÖ

There is some room to the left of the SPÖ, but it’s occupied by the Greens.

Even in Bavaria yesterday, the Linke only got 2.5% - the lowest share among all German states.

Austria is the same. A Left Party would gain no traction, the federal KPÖ is also incompetent and lacks funding.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 27, 2021, 12:49:01 PM
Graz city council election now complete (all mail ballots counted):

()

Seats:

()

City Senate seats:

3 KPÖ
2 ÖVP
1 Greens
1 FPÖ
0 SPÖ
0 NEOS


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 27, 2021, 12:50:50 PM
Former Austria FPÖ-leader H.C. Strache launched a run in Graz.

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/die-klein-gewordene-welt-des-heinz-christian-strache/401747226

He received 0.25% of the vote.

LOL.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Not Me, Us on September 27, 2021, 01:40:28 PM
Funny that the second biggest city in Austria is being run by communists. You’d never see that in the US.
Wasn’t Milwaukee run by a socialist mayor well into the 80’s?

So what exactly is preventing the KPÖ from lifting up in federal elections? There’s definitely room to the left of the SPÖ

The last Socialist Mayor of Milwaukee left office in 1960, and I doubt something like that will ever happen again. The closest will ever get would be a DSA mayor of NYC, LA or Chicago, and even that isn't all that likely.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 28, 2021, 04:22:34 AM
The Communists in Graz are very good at PR, with their politicians often being seen doing good deeds/walking the walk and donating chunks of their salaries. Tender, for example, was effusive about them and always was glad when they did well, even though he is not a communist by any means.

The Milwaukee note is a good one: they are textbook sewer socialists.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: warandwar on September 28, 2021, 05:26:10 AM
The Communists in Graz are very good at PR, with their politicians often being seen doing good deeds/walking the walk and donating chunks of their salaries. Tender, for example, was effusive about them and always was glad when they did well, even though he is not a communist by any means.

The Milwaukee note is a good one: they are textbook sewer socialists.
They don't actually run any public services, so they are not "textbook" sewer socialists. They are orthodox Marxist-Leninists who were in a long fued w the Party's Eurocom wing, strangely enough.
Their main issue is housing - what powers do austrian cities have there? Could they build public housing on their own?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 28, 2021, 02:13:19 PM
The KPÖs Elke Kahr has given an interview to the ORF. She said she’s getting more comfortable taking the post of mayor in Graz, because of the overwhelming result.

()

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS have ruled out voting for her as mayor in the city council.

The SPÖ said they will elect her.

Now it comes down to the Greens (who are in a coalition with the Kurz-ÖVP in the Austrian Nationalrat).

The Green leader, Judith Schwentner, said she wants to talk with Elke Kahr first and a big coalition topic for them is the climate and traffic.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000130019624/kpoe-chefin-kahr-braucht-die-gruenen-fuers-buergermeisteramt


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sven der Igel on September 28, 2021, 02:31:03 PM
The Communists in Graz are very good at PR, with their politicians often being seen doing good deeds/walking the walk and donating chunks of their salaries. Tender, for example, was effusive about them and always was glad when they did well, even though he is not a communist by any means.

The Milwaukee note is a good one: they are textbook sewer socialists.

I assume you are referring to the creator of this thread. That is indeed a sentiment shared by many voters in the city Graz: they are by no means communist, but really like the calm demeanor of Kahr and her fellow city politicians, their trustworthiness, their work for the people, their openness and social heart and Robin Hood mentality. Besides, Elke Kahr - who used to be popular city councilor for HOUSING between 2012-17 - was pushed into city councilor for TRAFFIC by the ÖVP (who speculated that moving her agenda would make her less popular !). It spectacularly backfired on the ÖVP, because she became even more popular.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Astatine on September 29, 2021, 09:22:03 AM
RIP this thread, once and for all.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: FrancoAgo on September 29, 2021, 11:31:56 AM

there is no motive to close this subject


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Astatine on September 29, 2021, 12:17:56 PM
The only person who kept this thread alive has been permabanned (Tender aka Sven der Igel).


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: FrancoAgo on September 29, 2021, 03:36:58 PM
The only person who kept this thread alive has been permabanned (Tender aka Sven der Igel).

i suppose this is for austrian elections, so that Tender is permabanned is irrelevant, austrian will continue to vote


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 29, 2021, 05:57:36 PM
I was looking at the German Wikipedia page for the anti-vaccine party, and its listed ideologies are Impfgegnerschaft, Populismus, and Laizismus. It's hard to think of a less appealing list!


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: warandwar on September 30, 2021, 04:38:58 AM
From Der Standard (https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000129993801/landslide-victory-for-the-communists-in-graz-what-fueled-their?amplified=True)
Quote
Shortly before the election, members of Nagl’s party, the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) of Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, had warned in drastic terms of what might happen if the communists were allowed to prevail in the election. A vote for the leftists, they said, was "a vote for chaos, terror and fear." They warned of mass unemployment. The term "Leningraz" even made the rounds.

And then, there was the ultimate victor of the elections, the head of the Communist Party of Graz (KPÖ) Elke Kahr, who had given the ÖVP apocalyptic nightmares, standing before the television cameras earlier in the day and answering questions about what she would do until the election results were announced. Her answer? She said she would use the time to finally do a bit of housework and wash a couple of loads of laundry. The beautiful weather, she insisted, was perfect for drying.



Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on October 01, 2021, 07:13:13 PM
The Communists in Graz are very good at PR, with their politicians often being seen doing good deeds/walking the walk and donating chunks of their salaries. Tender, for example, was effusive about them and always was glad when they did well, even though he is not a communist by any means.

The Milwaukee note is a good one: they are textbook sewer socialists.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/austrian-communists-caught-in-controversy-over-praise-for-lukashenko-regime/
Ofcourse they have the same problem of loving authotarainsm and dictatorships that every other communism suffers from.
Quote

Werner Murgg, one of only two communist MPs in the state parliament of Styria, praised the Lukashenko regime on Belarussian television during a visit to the country in August and referred to “stability and order” in Europe’s last dictatorship.

He claimed that the West is waging “a hybrid war against Belarus” and stated that he was “pleasantly surprised” about how open the society was when he was spending his vacation there.

While he later backpedalled in an official statement and tried to distance himself from the regime in Belarus, the damage had already been done.


 


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Logical on October 08, 2021, 05:26:23 PM
https://metropole.at/ovp-scandal-kurz-media-triangle/

On Tuesday, there will be a confidence vote which Kurz and the ÖVP does not expect to survive. Either an anti-ÖVP coalition or an expert government will be formed in preparation of a new election.

Here's the best of part of the scandal. These two polls are alleged to be fake. They show then ÖVP leader and vice chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner with much worse numbers than other pollsters show. And then they asked a hypothetical question with a Kurz led ÖVP winning the election. The right wing tabloids ran a barrage of such fake polls to pressure Mitterlehner to resign and to push Kurz as leader. They succeeded and the rest became a self fulfilling prophecy.

()
()
()
()
()

You can check out the list of fake polls on wikipedia to see the full extent of the manipulation.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 08, 2021, 05:34:39 PM
What a mess. But one question, did they forged the data of polling, or completely made up the numbers?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Logical on October 08, 2021, 05:46:57 PM
What a mess. But one question, did they forged the data of polling, or completely made up the numbers?
From what I understand (using google translate), the polls are real but the numbers are "massaged" so to speak.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: President Johnson on October 09, 2021, 01:09:45 PM


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2021, 01:14:08 PM
So, will there be a OVP leadership election to select a new leader, or a snap general election?

Also, interesting that in just the last 3 weeks, several European government parties have been hit with substantial setbacks: Norway, Germany, Portugal, Czech Republic and now Austria.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Pamela Joy on October 09, 2021, 01:17:06 PM
So, will there be a OVP leadership election to select a new leader, or a snap general election?

Kurz was only confirmed as ÖVP leader with 99.4% in August, so nope.

He will remain party leader & group leader in parliament until he’s either found guilty or not.

He may return as Chancellor in the latter event.

No new elections either: ÖVP+Greens are continuing with interim Chancellor Schallenberg.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2021, 01:20:53 PM
So, will there be a OVP leadership election to select a new leader, or a snap general election?

Kurz was only confirmed as ÖVP leader with 99.4% in August, so nope.

He will remain party leader & group leader in parliament until he’s either found guilty or not.

He may return as Chancellor in the latter event.

No new elections either: ÖVP+Greens are continuing with interim Chancellor Schallenberg.

Right. But, the investigation and trial could last several months, Austria having an interim Chancellor for a considerable period of time could be messy, IMO.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Pamela Joy on October 09, 2021, 02:08:26 PM
So, will there be a OVP leadership election to select a new leader, or a snap general election?

Kurz was only confirmed as ÖVP leader with 99.4% in August, so nope.

He will remain party leader & group leader in parliament until he’s either found guilty or not.

He may return as Chancellor in the latter event.

No new elections either: ÖVP+Greens are continuing with interim Chancellor Schallenberg.

Right. But, the investigation and trial could last several months, Austria having an interim Chancellor for a considerable period of time could be messy, IMO.

Correct.

But Schallenberg is an insider and pro (he’s the current foreign minister, knows everyone in the government and EU/World already well).

Would be harder for a total newcomer as Chancellor, but Brigitte Bierlein in 2019 as interim one also did a great job ...


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Flyersfan232 on October 09, 2021, 04:55:48 PM
What do these events mean for the fpo


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: rob in cal on October 09, 2021, 05:50:03 PM
I would think the FPO would like to calmly stay in opposition and hope to win alot of right of center OVP voters who are disgusted with Kurz related corruption in the coming months and years.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Zinneke on October 19, 2021, 02:07:55 PM


(thread)


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 19, 2021, 05:55:47 PM



(thread)

To paraphrase Hal Holbrook from the movie All the President's Men:

"Forget the myths the media's Kronen Zeitung created about the White House Sebastian Kurz and the ÖVP. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand. "


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Libertas Vel Mors on October 19, 2021, 06:51:53 PM
From Der Standard (https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000129993801/landslide-victory-for-the-communists-in-graz-what-fueled-their?amplified=True)
Quote
Shortly before the election, members of Nagl’s party, the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) of Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, had warned in drastic terms of what might happen if the communists were allowed to prevail in the election. A vote for the leftists, they said, was "a vote for chaos, terror and fear." They warned of mass unemployment. The term "Leningraz" even made the rounds.

And then, there was the ultimate victor of the elections, the head of the Communist Party of Graz (KPÖ) Elke Kahr, who had given the ÖVP apocalyptic nightmares, standing before the television cameras earlier in the day and answering questions about what she would do until the election results were announced. Her answer? She said she would use the time to finally do a bit of housework and wash a couple of loads of laundry. The beautiful weather, she insisted, was perfect for drying.


So what?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Astatine on December 02, 2021, 08:45:55 AM
So, it's over for Shorty: Sebastian Kurz just announced he'll retire from politics completely, citing the birth of his son and the "accusations" of the last months as reasons for his interest in politics dwindling. Kurz will be succeeded by Interior Minister Karl Nehammer as ÖVP leader - He is also rumored to take over as Chancellor, given that Schallenberg has made an underwhelming impression so far.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Sir Mohamed on December 02, 2021, 10:17:47 AM
So, it's over for Shorty: Sebastian Kurz just announced he'll retire from politics completely, citing the birth of his son and the "accusations" of the last months as reasons for his interest in politics dwindling. Kurz will be succeeded by Interior Minister Karl Nehammer as ÖVP leader - He is also rumored to take over as Chancellor, given that Schallenberg has made an underwhelming impression so far.

Not buying it. The dude will come back or at least try to come back. Could just be a tactical move.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Astatine on December 02, 2021, 10:28:16 AM
So, it's over for Shorty: Sebastian Kurz just announced he'll retire from politics completely, citing the birth of his son and the "accusations" of the last months as reasons for his interest in politics dwindling. Kurz will be succeeded by Interior Minister Karl Nehammer as ÖVP leader - He is also rumored to take over as Chancellor, given that Schallenberg has made an underwhelming impression so far.

Not buying it. The dude will come back or at least try to come back. Could just be a tactical move.
Yeah, I buy he's out for now until his image might be recovered, also since Nehammer seems to be close to Kurz. But sometimes rising stars don't ever return - Remember KT zu Guttenberg in Germany, who was regularly rumored to make a comeback? Nothing has happened in 10 years. Merz did it, though. :P


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: DavidB. on December 02, 2021, 04:09:36 PM
Chancellor Schallenberg and Finance Minister Blümel, both ÖVP, just resigned. What's next? New elections?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: President Johnson on December 02, 2021, 04:14:40 PM
Chancellor Schallenberg and Finance Minister Blümel, both ÖVP, just resigned. What's next? New elections?

German news sources say Karl Nehammer, Interior Minister, is likely to be next ÖVP leader and chancellor.

I hope there will be snap elections and the SPÖ comes to power again.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 02, 2021, 06:18:59 PM
Chancellor Schallenberg and Finance Minister Blümel, both ÖVP, just resigned. What's next? New elections?

German news sources say Karl Nehammer, Interior Minister, is likely to be next ÖVP leader and chancellor.

I hope there will be snap elections and the SPÖ comes to power again.

What do polls indicate right now?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: bigic on December 02, 2021, 06:39:06 PM
Chancellor Schallenberg and Finance Minister Blümel, both ÖVP, just resigned. What's next? New elections?

German news sources say Karl Nehammer, Interior Minister, is likely to be next ÖVP leader and chancellor.

I hope there will be snap elections and the SPÖ comes to power again.

What do polls indicate right now?
SPÖ first, and a red-green-pink (SPÖ-Grüne-Neos) coalition is possible.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: parochial boy on December 02, 2021, 06:49:59 PM
Chancellor Schallenberg and Finance Minister Blümel, both ÖVP, just resigned. What's next? New elections?

German news sources say Karl Nehammer, Interior Minister, is likely to be next ÖVP leader and chancellor.

I hope there will be snap elections and the SPÖ comes to power again.

What do polls indicate right now?

Well if there is one country where we could have some pretty legitimate doubts about what the polls are saying then it’s probably Austria


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Astatine on December 02, 2021, 06:53:17 PM
Chancellor Schallenberg and Finance Minister Blümel, both ÖVP, just resigned. What's next? New elections?

German news sources say Karl Nehammer, Interior Minister, is likely to be next ÖVP leader and chancellor.

I hope there will be snap elections and the SPÖ comes to power again.
I doubt anyone in Austria wants snap elections during the peak of a Covid wave.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Lechasseur on December 06, 2021, 01:38:59 PM
Why did Schallenberg resign ?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: DavidB. on December 06, 2021, 02:00:26 PM
He doesn't want to be ÖVP leader and thinks the Chancellor should also lead the ÖVP. Nehammer is much more of a party machine guy than Schallenberg. It would be strange if one were party leader and the other Chancellor. Essentially, with Nehammer now leading the ÖVP, the party shifted back from "turquoise" to "black", into the hands of the old party elite of which Nehammer is part.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Pick Up the Phone on December 06, 2021, 02:35:04 PM
He doesn't want to be ÖVP leader and thinks the Chancellor should also lead the ÖVP. Nehammer is much more of a party machine guy than Schallenberg. It would be strange if one were party leader and the other Chancellor. Essentially, with Nehammer now leading the ÖVP, the party shifted back from "turquoise" to "black", into the hands of the old party elite of which Nehammer is part.

Exactly. Schallenberg was never an ÖVP politician but a 'Kurz politician' - big difference. Now that the Kurz experiment has failed, there is no foundation for him to continue as Chancellor. He may become Foreign Minister again but the ÖVP is back in the hands of the old party establishment.

Obviously, there is no reason for snap elections. There is still a solid ÖVP-Greens majority to support the new Chancellor.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 03, 2022, 08:39:37 AM
He doesn't want to be ÖVP leader and thinks the Chancellor should also lead the ÖVP. Nehammer is much more of a party machine guy than Schallenberg. It would be strange if one were party leader and the other Chancellor. Essentially, with Nehammer now leading the ÖVP, the party shifted back from "turquoise" to "black", into the hands of the old party elite of which Nehammer is part.
Wats the difference


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: President Johnson on May 22, 2022, 03:27:07 PM
Some good old Austria posting:



Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: MRCVzla on September 25, 2022, 11:15:48 AM
Today September 25 were the State elections at Tyrol, 36 seats (majority with 18) with a 5% threshold, like at federal level, the incumbent government was a coalition between the ÖVP and the Greens, incumbent governor Günther Platte (ÖVP) is not seeking reelection and announced his retirement from politics in June. It's the first major State election since Kurz resigned and the coalition reshuffle under  and is considered a kind of test for the upcoming elections in 2023 (state elections in Lower Austria, Carinthia and Salzburg plus the Federal one).

First exit poll projections says both ÖVP and Greens losing support and their majority, affected by mainly by Platte' retirement, managment of COVID in Ischgl, the ongoing rising price crisis, and the unpopularity of the federal coalition. ÖVP (led by Anton Matte, who's name it's on the ballot) is still by large the first party but they will search another coalition partner, likely FPÖ who is up as well SPÖ, also will sightly increase its representation the local List Fritz.




Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 25, 2022, 02:06:14 PM
Can this thread be renamed the Tender Branson memorial thread


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 25, 2022, 02:52:09 PM
Those colours are very wrong - ÖVP are black and FPÖ are blue, not the other way round.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: crals on September 25, 2022, 04:50:19 PM
Those colours are very wrong - ÖVP are black and FPÖ are blue, not the other way round.
Europe Elects uses a pan-european color scheme, blue for the center-right and black for the far-right


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on October 04, 2022, 07:46:44 AM
Surprise, surprise: SPÖ and ÖVP announced yesterday that they will open formal coalition talks.

While there are substantive policy differences to overcome, ÖVP officials are optimistic about quickly forming a government, especially since the SPÖ is the only party that was open to cooperation on ÖVP issues such as expanding a hydroelectric plant.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Estrella on October 05, 2022, 11:22:27 AM
Styria is the strongest region for KPÖ, the Communist Party of Austria. They have multiple seats in the state parliament and in 2019 won an impressive result in Graz municipal elections that gave them the city's mayoralty. Surely this must mean that they are a relatively moderate party focused on social activism rather than tankies with a screw loose?

KPÖ state MP calls Ukraine "a cripple of a nation", says it should pay reparations to Donetsk and calls Balkan countries "puppet states". (https://steiermark.orf.at/stories/3176392/)

This is, unsurprisingly, something of a pattern for the party. As the mayor of Graz will have you know, both sides should withdraw their troops. (https://www.weekend.at/politik/ukraine-krise-elke-kahrs-missglueckter-kommentar)

*sigh* what is it with German-speaking leftists...


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on October 05, 2022, 11:38:10 AM
*sigh* what is it with German-speaking leftists...

IT DIDN'T HAVE TO END LIKE THIS
()


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Estrella on October 05, 2022, 12:04:07 PM

Not to go too deep into national stereotypes, but with what the relationship of Germans/Austrians to authority is like, it was probably inevitable that they'd end up with a choice between turbo-Blairites, Stalinists and those who are both.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on October 05, 2022, 12:07:23 PM

Not to go too deep into national stereotypes, but with what the relationship of Germans/Austrians to authority is like, it was probably inevitable that they'd end up with a choice between turbo-Blairites, Stalinists and those who are both.

Hence why only a Pole could save them, who they of course did dirty on account of that fact!


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: YL on October 05, 2022, 12:12:16 PM
Those colours are very wrong - ÖVP are black and FPÖ are blue, not the other way round.

I thought ÖVP were now turquoise.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 05, 2022, 12:32:01 PM
Those colours are very wrong - ÖVP are black and FPÖ are blue, not the other way round.

I thought ÖVP were now turquoise.

Doesn't matter, ÖVP is black.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Anzeigenhauptmeister on October 08, 2022, 04:02:45 AM
I can't believe that nobody has written anything about tomorrow's presidential election in Austria yet.
Incumbent President Alexander Van der Bellen, a member of the Green Party of Austria, is seeking re-election, which he is expected to win, albeit not quite as easy anymore as it had seemed at the beginning of the election campaign.
In the polls, he is still leading with a comfortable margin, but he has fallen below the 50% threshold in the meantime, so that it may come to a runoff in the end.
Trailing far behind, the FPÖ guy Walter Rosenkranz and Marco Pogo from the ... Beer Party are competing for the second place.
Oh, if you're wondering who that Marco Pogo is, he is the lead singer of the punk-rock band TURBOBIER that makes songs like this...



Wouldn't it be funny if Pogo really made it to the runoffs, so that Van der Bellen would have to go head to head with him in a live TV debate? 🤭
You won't guess what Dominik Wlazny (alias Marco Pogo) does for a living in "real" life...


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on October 08, 2022, 04:14:41 AM
'centrist who supports green and socially liberal policies'

Okay, I'm going for Van der Bellen.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: If my soul was made of stone on October 08, 2022, 12:15:07 PM
I can't believe that nobody has written anything about tomorrow's presidential election in Austria yet.
Incumbent President Alexander Van der Bellen, a member of the Green Party of Austria, is seeking re-election, which he is expected to win, albeit not quite as easy anymore as it had seemed at the beginning of the election campaign.
In the polls, he is still leading with a comfortable margin, but he has fallen below the 50% threshold in the meantime, so that it may come to a runoff in the end.
Trailing far behind, the FPÖ guy Walter Rosenkranz and Marco Pogo from the ... Beer Party are competing for the second place.
Oh, if you're wondering who that Marco Pogo is, he is the lead singer of the punk-rock band TURBOBIER that makes songs like this...



Wouldn't it be funny if Pogo really made it to the runoffs, so that Van der Bellen would have to go head to head with him in a live TV debate? 🤭
You won't guess what Dominik Wlazny (alias Marco Pogo) does for a living in "real" life...

If he makes it to the runoff then the party should fold, like the Best Party in Iceland did once they started actually winning elections, to avoid defeating the purpose of the entire satirical candidacy and being subsumed into the object of satire (cf. Mark Fisher on "Why I Want to F-ck Ronald Reagan").


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on October 08, 2022, 01:34:49 PM
I can't believe that nobody has written anything about tomorrow's presidential election in Austria yet.
Incumbent President Alexander Van der Bellen, a member of the Green Party of Austria, is seeking re-election, which he is expected to win, albeit not quite as easy anymore as it had seemed at the beginning of the election campaign.
In the polls, he is still leading with a comfortable margin, but he has fallen below the 50% threshold in the meantime, so that it may come to a runoff in the end.
Trailing far behind, the FPÖ guy Walter Rosenkranz and Marco Pogo from the ... Beer Party are competing for the second place.
Oh, if you're wondering who that Marco Pogo is, he is the lead singer of the punk-rock band TURBOBIER that makes songs like this...



Wouldn't it be funny if Pogo really made it to the runoffs, so that Van der Bellen would have to go head to head with him in a live TV debate? 🤭
You won't guess what Dominik Wlazny (alias Marco Pogo) does for a living in "real" life...

If he makes it to the runoff then the party should fold, like the Best Party in Iceland did once they started actually winning elections, to avoid defeating the purpose of the entire satirical candidacy and being subsumed into the object of satire (cf. Mark Fisher on "Why I Want to F-ck Ronald Reagan").
he's running a more serious campaign this time around though it seems. Either way, I'd vote for him or der Bellen.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 08, 2022, 08:02:03 PM
Last INSA poll:



Quite a low result for Van der Bellen. So far, all incumbent Presidents in Austrian democracy who ran for reelection, easily secured reelection on the 1st round. We'll see what the result is this Sunday.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Anzeigenhauptmeister on October 09, 2022, 12:51:37 AM

Just to make things clear: "Van der Bellen" is the President's surname and "Alexander" his Christian name.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Anzeigenhauptmeister on October 09, 2022, 12:55:41 AM
Last INSA poll:
Quite a low result for Van der Bellen. So far, all incumbent Presidents in Austrian democracy who ran for reelection, easily secured reelection on the 1st round. We'll see what the result is this Sunday.

I wonder if the electoral authority really puts Wlazny's stage name on the ballot, though. 😂


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Conservatopia on October 09, 2022, 03:02:33 AM
I can't believe that nobody has written anything about tomorrow's presidential election in Austria yet.
Incumbent President Alexander Van der Bellen, a member of the Green Party of Austria, is seeking re-election, which he is expected to win, albeit not quite as easy anymore as it had seemed at the beginning of the election campaign.
In the polls, he is still leading with a comfortable margin, but he has fallen below the 50% threshold in the meantime, so that it may come to a runoff in the end.
Trailing far behind, the FPÖ guy Walter Rosenkranz and Marco Pogo from the ... Beer Party are competing for the second place.
Oh, if you're wondering who that Marco Pogo is, he is the lead singer of the punk-rock band TURBOBIER that makes songs like this...


Wouldn't it be funny if Pogo really made it to the runoffs, so that Van der Bellen would have to go head to head with him in a live TV debate? 🤭
You won't guess what Dominik Wlazny (alias Marco Pogo) does for a living in "real" life...

If he makes it to the runoff then the party should fold, like the Best Party in Iceland did once they started actually winning elections, to avoid defeating the purpose of the entire satirical candidacy and being subsumed into the object of satire (cf. Mark Fisher on "Why I Want to F-ck Ronald Reagan").

And yet the UK's satirical party, the Liberal Democrats, keeps going regardless of their success (or lack of it).


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on October 09, 2022, 06:13:47 AM
I can't believe that nobody has written anything about tomorrow's presidential election in Austria yet.
Incumbent President Alexander Van der Bellen, a member of the Green Party of Austria, is seeking re-election, which he is expected to win, albeit not quite as easy anymore as it had seemed at the beginning of the election campaign.
In the polls, he is still leading with a comfortable margin, but he has fallen below the 50% threshold in the meantime, so that it may come to a runoff in the end.
Trailing far behind, the FPÖ guy Walter Rosenkranz and Marco Pogo from the ... Beer Party are competing for the second place.
Oh, if you're wondering who that Marco Pogo is, he is the lead singer of the punk-rock band TURBOBIER that makes songs like this...


Wouldn't it be funny if Pogo really made it to the runoffs, so that Van der Bellen would have to go head to head with him in a live TV debate? 🤭
You won't guess what Dominik Wlazny (alias Marco Pogo) does for a living in "real" life...

If he makes it to the runoff then the party should fold, like the Best Party in Iceland did once they started actually winning elections, to avoid defeating the purpose of the entire satirical candidacy and being subsumed into the object of satire (cf. Mark Fisher on "Why I Want to F-ck Ronald Reagan").

And yet the UK's satirical party, the Liberal Democrats, keeps going regardless of their success (or lack of it).

Italy's satirical party, the Five Star Movement, was the most voted in not one but two consecutive elections.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 06:51:26 AM
The last polls close in about 3 hours. Exit polls will be announced at that hour.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 09:53:46 AM
Polls close in 7 minutes.

Live coverage feeds:

https://orf.at/newsroom/livestream/14192865




Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 10:02:38 AM
Van der Bellen reelected on the 1st round. 53-56%

FPO candidate at 17-20% and the Bier party at 8-11%.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 10:06:18 AM
ORF's SORA projection also shows Van der Bellen reelected with 54.6%. FPO with 18.9%, but the Bier party at 4th with 8.1%.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 10:11:27 AM
Results page: https://bundeswahlen.gv.at/2022/

ORF results page: https://orf.at/wahl/bp22/hochrechnungen


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 10:26:18 AM
Updated SORA projection:

55.4% Van der Bellen
18.4% Rosenkranz
  8.4% Wallentin
  8.1% Wlazny
  5.8% Grosz
  2.2% Brunner
  1.6% Staudinger

66.1% Turnout


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 10:52:43 AM
Results by towns so far:



Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on October 09, 2022, 10:54:26 AM
Predictable considering who must vote for that guy and VdB's incumbency, but still sad that we've been denied a run-off involving the beer party guy.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 11:55:23 AM
SORA's projection: 95% counted

56.1% Van der Bellen
17.9% Rosenkranz
  8.4% Wlazny
  8.3% Wallentin
  5.6% Grosz
  2.2% Brunner
  1.5% Staudinger

65.8% Turnout


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 12:13:10 PM
Only a few areas of Vienna are left to count. Tomorrow, the postal votes will start being counted.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Anzeigenhauptmeister on October 09, 2022, 12:47:22 PM
SORA's projection: 95% counted

56.1% Van der Bellen
17.9% Rosenkranz
  8.4% Wlazny
  8.3% Wallentin
  5.6% Grosz
  2.2% Brunner
  1.5% Staudinger

65.8% Turnout

What a great, great pity! I knew that Van der Bellen was gonna win re-election, but I'd love to have seen a face-off between him and Marco Pogo. :(


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2022, 01:59:48 PM
Final results: (without postal votes)

54.6% Van der Bellen (1,780,429 votes)
19.1% Rosenkranz (622,489)
  8.4% Wallentin (273,596)
  8.2% Wlazny (268,518)
  6.0% Grosz (194,448)
  2.2% Brunner (70,683)
  1.6% Staudinger (50,896)

52.5% Turnout (3,340,609)


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on October 10, 2022, 02:10:35 PM
Marco Pogo has at least jumped back up to 3rd. https://bundeswahlen.gv.at/2022/

He also got 2nd in Vienna.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2022, 06:50:50 PM
Postal votes results:

65.3% Van der Bellen (519,163 votes)
11.9% Rosenkranz (94,608)
  8.6% Wlazny (68,492)
  6.7% Wallentin (53,618)
  4.0% Grosz (31,494)
  1.9% Brunner (14,782)
  1.7% Staudinger (13,545) 

Total votes:

56.7% Van der Bellen (2,299,592 votes)
17.7% Rosenkranz (717,097)
  8.3% Wlazny (337,010)
  8.1% Wallentin (327,214)
  5.6% Grosz (225,942)
  2.1% Brunner (85,465)
  1.6% Staudinger (64,411)

65.2% Turnout (4,148,079)


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on October 12, 2022, 10:50:36 PM
Based guy won


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2023, 11:39:37 AM
Lower Austria regional election: SORA/ORF projection:



ÖVP loses its majority and FPÖ surpasses SPÖ to become the 2nd largest party.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: President Johnson on January 29, 2023, 11:44:45 AM
What's driving up FPÖ support lately? Disappointment over the ÖVP? I noticed that they rebounded nationally as well, competing with the SPÖ for first place, even polling slightly ahead in most surveys. It's depressing so many people supporting this joke of a party.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2023, 11:53:38 AM
What's driving up FPÖ support lately? Disappointment over the ÖVP? I noticed that they rebounded nationally as well, competing with the SPÖ for first place, even polling slightly ahead in most surveys. It's depressing so many people supporting this joke of a party.

From what I'm aware, the SPÖ leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has been losing popularity and is not seen as an alternative to the ÖVP. Plus, the scandals around ÖVP, in the last few years, damaged the party's image, plus the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the economic issues around it, could have a negative impact in voters minds, Austria is not a NATO member, and FPÖ has been blaming both Russia and NATO for the war.

A scenario poll in which the incumbent governor of Burgenland, Hans Peter Doskozil, leads the SPÖ, puts the party well ahead of FPÖ and ÖVP.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Babeuf on January 29, 2023, 02:57:43 PM
What's driving up FPÖ support lately? Disappointment over the ÖVP? I noticed that they rebounded nationally as well, competing with the SPÖ for first place, even polling slightly ahead in most surveys. It's depressing so many people supporting this joke of a party.

From what I'm aware, the SPÖ leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has been losing popularity and is not seen as an alternative to the ÖVP. Plus, the scandals around ÖVP, in the last few years, damaged the party's image, plus the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the economic issues around it, could have a negative impact in voters minds, Austria is not a NATO member, and FPÖ has been blaming both Russia and NATO for the war.

A scenario poll in which the incumbent governor of Burgenland, Hans Peter Doskozil, leads the SPÖ, puts the party well ahead of FPÖ and ÖVP.
Tbf (if we’re thinking of the same poll), that scenario poll was commissioned by the Burgenland SPÖ (see below).



Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2023, 06:31:51 PM
Tbf (if we’re thinking of the same poll), that scenario poll was commissioned by the Burgenland SPÖ (see below).

Ah, right. Wasn't aware of that. Because they did also a poll with the current leader, I assume it was a normal monthly poll. But, he's quite popular within SPÖ and as governor of Burgenland, right?

Anyway, the preliminary results of the Lower Austria regional elections:

39.9% ÖVP (-9.7), 23 seats (-6)
24.2% FPÖ (+9.4), 14 (+6)
20.7% SPÖ (-3.3), 12 (-1)
  7.6% GRÜNE (+1.2), 4 (+1)
  6.7% NEOS (+1.5), 3 (nc)
  1.0% Others (+0.9)

71.5% Turnout (+5.0)

Results from here: https://www.noe.gv.at/wahlen/L20231/Index.html


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: DavidB. on February 02, 2023, 11:07:28 AM
What's driving up FPÖ support lately? Disappointment over the ÖVP? I noticed that they rebounded nationally as well, competing with the SPÖ for first place, even polling slightly ahead in most surveys.
In addition to the Russia issue, which was mentioned before, there's also the issue of immigration being way up again and COVID (which in hindsight mostly benefited incumbent governments) being completely forgotten already.

But I'd also say it's just a return to the standard level of support to which they always bounce back after an electoral setback - about 25%. Ibizagate has faded out of people's memory and was overshadowed by Kurz' scandal. ÖVP leader Nehammer is a party machine man, not a charismatic leader or a vote magnet for the Austrian right. And Kickl seems to be doing a solid job in uniting the party and picking a political line that resonates with many voters - not too moderate, not too extreme.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on March 05, 2023, 07:11:50 AM
Election day in the state of Carinthia:



This year, 17.4% of voters cast an early ballot or requested mail voting. The last polls put the SPÖ with a comfortable lead, FPÖ in second place and ÖVP on the verge of crashing to 4th place, behind the Team Carinthia (TK), a local party. The last available poll:

Market poll: (compared with the 2018 results)

42% SPÖ (-6)
26% FPÖ (+3)
12% TK (+6)
10% ÖVP (-5)
  4% Grüne (+1)
  4% NEOS (+2)
  2% Others (-1)


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Logical on March 05, 2023, 07:31:12 AM
Unban Tender but contain him to this thread. This used to be one of the best running thread on this site.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: jaichind on March 05, 2023, 10:41:57 AM
Looks like ÖVP is outperforming and SPÖ underperforming


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on March 05, 2023, 11:07:30 AM
Looks like ÖVP is outperforming and SPÖ underperforming

Yep, but compared with the first projections from an hour ago, SPÖ is improving a bit and ÖVP going down a bit. However, compared with 2018, surprising surge for ÖVP and a bigger than expected fall for the SPÖ. FPÖ is basically at the same point.



Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Logical on March 27, 2023, 10:38:35 AM
Thread on the dumpster fire engulfing SPÖ right now


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on April 23, 2023, 05:38:59 AM
Salzburg regional election this Sunday:



The last polls show a close race between ÖVP and FPÖ, with SPÖ in a distant third place.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Harlow on April 23, 2023, 07:53:44 AM
KPÖ also has a decent shot of winning a seat for the first time since 1945.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on April 23, 2023, 10:18:26 AM
SORA projection:



Seat projection:

11 ÖVP (-4)
10 FPÖ (+3)
  8 SPÖ (nc)
  4 KPÖ (+4)
  3 GRÜNE (nc)
  0 NEOS (-3)


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: kaoras on April 23, 2023, 10:39:56 AM
From where are KPÖ voters coming from? Abstention? And why the surge?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: jaichind on April 23, 2023, 10:49:58 AM
From where are KPÖ voters coming from? Abstention? And why the surge?

Looking at polling they only started even to show up only a couple of months ago and then the result has them way outperforming their polls.  I think this has to do with their leader which seems to be building up a name for himself but that is a wild guess.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Logical on April 23, 2023, 10:55:10 AM
I wish Tender is still here with his entertaining exaggerated anecdotes.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Estrella on April 23, 2023, 11:32:16 AM
For the record, Austrian communists are unreconstructed tankie nutters who spend most of their time travelling to Belarus, Donbass and North Korea, giving interviews to local media and praising their political system. (https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000140091711/steirischer-landtag-kpoe-murgg-folgte-ruecktrittsaufforderungen-nicht) This curious approach has roots in the party's history: KPÖ was the only communist party that initially condemned the 1956 and 1968 Soviet invasions only to turn around and support them a few years later - despite the fact Austria took in tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the persecution that followed.

See also:

Styria is the strongest region for KPÖ, the Communist Party of Austria. They have multiple seats in the state parliament and in 2019 won an impressive result in Graz municipal elections that gave them the city's mayoralty. Surely this must mean that they are a relatively moderate party focused on social activism rather than tankies with a screw loose?

KPÖ state MP calls Ukraine "a cripple of a nation", says it should pay reparations to Donetsk and calls Balkan countries "puppet states". (https://steiermark.orf.at/stories/3176392/)

This is, unsurprisingly, something of a pattern for the party. As the mayor of Graz will have you know, both sides should withdraw their troops. (https://www.weekend.at/politik/ukraine-krise-elke-kahrs-missglueckter-kommentar)

*sigh* what is it with German-speaking leftists...

I guess that in addition to the obligatory "we swear the Akademikerball isn't just about cosplaying as Nazis" stuff from the FPÖ we'll now get the left-wing version of that from the KPÖ. Fun!


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on April 23, 2023, 11:50:05 AM
114 of 119 municipalities counted:

30.7% ÖVP (-7.4)
26.3% FPÖ (+7.5)
17.5% SPÖ (-2.0)
11.4% KPÖ (+11.0)
  7.9% GRÜNE (-1.6)
  4.1% NEOS (-3.2)
  2.1% Others

67.6% Turnout (+2.7)


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: warandwar on April 23, 2023, 11:59:53 AM
For the record, Austrian communists are unreconstructed tankie nutters
No they aren't. Their main claim to fame has been using their legislative salaries to fund a rental assistence fund (and other activities). They are effective campaigners and it's silly to call them "nutters."


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: palandio on April 23, 2023, 12:27:15 PM
For the record, Austrian communists are unreconstructed tankie nutters who spend most of their time travelling to Belarus, Donbass and North Korea, giving interviews to local media and praising their political system. (https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000140091711/steirischer-landtag-kpoe-murgg-folgte-ruecktrittsaufforderungen-nicht) This curious approach has roots in the party's history: KPÖ was the only communist party that initially condemned the 1956 and 1968 Soviet invasions only to turn around and support them a few years later - despite the fact Austria took in tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the persecution that followed.

See also:

Styria is the strongest region for KPÖ, the Communist Party of Austria. They have multiple seats in the state parliament and in 2019 won an impressive result in Graz municipal elections that gave them the city's mayoralty. Surely this must mean that they are a relatively moderate party focused on social activism rather than tankies with a screw loose?

KPÖ state MP calls Ukraine "a cripple of a nation", says it should pay reparations to Donetsk and calls Balkan countries "puppet states". (https://steiermark.orf.at/stories/3176392/)

This is, unsurprisingly, something of a pattern for the party. As the mayor of Graz will have you know, both sides should withdraw their troops. (https://www.weekend.at/politik/ukraine-krise-elke-kahrs-missglueckter-kommentar)

*sigh* what is it with German-speaking leftists...

I guess that in addition to the obligatory "we swear the Akademikerball isn't just about cosplaying as Nazis" stuff from the FPÖ we'll now get the left-wing version of that from the KPÖ. Fun!

There has been an ideological split within the KPÖ for a long time. The federal KPÖ is more on the far-left alternative side, while its (until now) most succesful regional chapter, the Styrian/Graz KPÖ has remained unreformed anti-revisionist tankies; at least in theory, in practice they focus more on the issue of affordable housing and left-wing populism.

The Salzburg KPÖ has called the war in Ukraine "Putin's war of aggression" and suggested humanitarian support for Ukraine:
https://www.kpoeplus-sbg.at/putins_angriffskrieg_keine_sponsoring_gelder_von_gazprom
https://www.kpoeplus-sbg.at/ukraine_hilfe_stadt_salzburg

Apart from that the Salzburg KPÖ has borrowed a lot from the Styrian playbook: A focus on affordable housing, left-wing populism, donating a part of their compensation to the poor, etc. Its electoral strength seems to come both from abstention and protest votes and from disappointment with a Green party that is participating in a coalition with the conservative ÖVP and an SPÖ that is torn by infighting and ineffectiveness. The KPÖ's stronghold is in the city of Salzburg where they are already represented in the city parliament and where affordability of housing has become a big problem.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on April 23, 2023, 01:03:54 PM
Final results:

30.6% ÖVP (-7.2), 12 seats (-3)
26.3% FPÖ (+7.5), 10 (+3)
18.0% SPÖ (-2.1), 7 (-1)
11.2% KPÖ (+10.8 ), 4 (+4)
   7.8% GRÜNE (-1.5), 3 (nc)
   4.1% NEOS (-3.2), 0 (-3)
   2.0% Others

67.8% Turnout (+2.8 )


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on April 23, 2023, 01:11:48 PM
In Salzburg city, ÖVP polled ahead followed closely by KPÖ in second and FPÖ in third place:

Vote share %:

24.4% ÖVP (-5.5)
21.8% KPÖ (+20.6)
20.2% FPÖ (+4.3)
16.9% SPÖ (-6.4)
11.0% GRÜNE (-4.9)
   4.2% NEOS (-5.0)
   1.5% Others

50.4% Turnout (-6.9)


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Harlow on April 23, 2023, 02:10:41 PM
From where are KPÖ voters coming from? Abstention? And why the surge?
The KPÖ scored a big victory by winning the most seats and mayorship of Graz (in Styria) in 2021. I can't speak to the sudden surge, but their state polling has risen substantially in the last year and a half (now at 12% in Styria).


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: warandwar on April 23, 2023, 03:53:05 PM
I'll add that, rather disgracefully in my opinion, the KPÖ is anti-BDS.
https://m.jpost.com/international/austria-communist-party-rejects-bds-recalls-nazi-boycott-of-jews-684434


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: DavidB. on April 23, 2023, 03:59:43 PM
I'll add that, rather disgracefully in my opinion, the KPÖ is anti-BDS.
https://m.jpost.com/international/austria-communist-party-rejects-bds-recalls-nazi-boycott-of-jews-684434
Most people don't think Austrians boycotting Jews was a particularly fortunate moment in history.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Harlow on April 23, 2023, 04:19:06 PM
Boycotting the state of Israel =/= boycotting Jews, but whatever.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: warandwar on April 23, 2023, 06:34:20 PM
I'll add that, rather disgracefully in my opinion, the KPÖ is anti-BDS.
https://m.jpost.com/international/austria-communist-party-rejects-bds-recalls-nazi-boycott-of-jews-684434
Most people don't think Austrians boycotting Jews was a particularly fortunate moment in history.
That's not what BDS is, but my main point is that it's rather silly to call them nutcases or w/e. If the point is to understand their support, we should be more precise.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Hnv1 on April 24, 2023, 03:46:31 AM
Communist surge in Austria? The world really is going mad


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: DavidB. on May 22, 2023, 10:32:16 AM
Burgenland governor Hans Peter Doskozil will be the new leader of the SPÖ. He won 33.68% in the internal leadership election. It was a close result: 31.51% voted for Andreas Babler, 31.35% for current leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner. This means FPÖ-SPÖ probably becomes more realistic. On the 3rd of June, there will be a party congress to make things official - Babler and Rendi-Wagner are expected to accept the result according to Austrian state media ORF.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 22, 2023, 10:40:38 AM
Approximate translation: Yvette Cooper has just been ousted by Stephen Kinnock.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 22, 2023, 10:42:27 AM
Burgenland governor Hans Peter Doskozil will be the new leader of the SPÖ. He won 33.68% in the internal leadership election. It was a close result: 31.51% voted for Andreas Babler, 31.35% for current leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner. This means FPÖ-SPÖ probably becomes more realistic. On the 3rd of June, there will be a party congress to make things official - Babler and Rendi-Wagner are expected to accept the result according to Austrian state media ORF.

People have previously pointed out that SPD infighting and leader unpopularity are why they failed to rise off the ÖVP collapse, leading to things like the KPÖ gaining relevance and the FPÖ currently leading the polls. And this guy is new and supposedly popular. So I would be curious to see if voters intentions remain the same in a month or so.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: palandio on May 22, 2023, 10:46:49 AM
An excellent lesson on how not to do a primary from the SPÖ.

The membership vote was unbinding and there are no plans for a run-off. I'm not sure if the geniuses that designed the voting modalities will allow Doskozil to run the party now that they know he has the support of only a third of its members. Or maybe that was the intention: That he wouldn't be able to run the party.

After all Doskozil is exactly the guy that the Vienna wing of the party holds accountable for allegedly having been a "sniper" against Rendi-Wagner over the last years.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: palandio on May 22, 2023, 10:55:15 AM
Burgenland governor Hans Peter Doskozil will be the new leader of the SPÖ. He won 33.68% in the internal leadership election. It was a close result: 31.51% voted for Andreas Babler, 31.35% for current leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner. This means FPÖ-SPÖ probably becomes more realistic. On the 3rd of June, there will be a party congress to make things official - Babler and Rendi-Wagner are expected to accept the result according to Austrian state media ORF.

People have previously pointed out that SPD infighting and leader unpopularity are why they failed to rise off the ÖVP collapse, leading to things like the KPÖ gaining relevance and the FPÖ currently leading the polls. And this guy is new and supposedly popular. So I would be curious to see if voters intentions remain the same in a month or so.

Doskozil is not new, he's very well known in Austria. But he would certainly be a significant change from Rendi-Wagner. A former police officer, conservative in style, a left-of-center populist in politics. He has been able to transform his personal popularity into votes for the SPÖ in Burgenland, a narrow, mostly rural strip of land on the Hungarian border. It will be interesting to see if he can win meaningful numbers of new voters in the center and the populist quadrant on the national level, too. On the other hand urban and socially progressive voters might leave the SPÖ, but it's unclear how important they are numerically in the SPÖ voter base.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on June 04, 2023, 07:00:59 AM
Hans Peter Doskozil is elected as new SPÖ leader:




Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: PSOL on June 04, 2023, 02:40:48 PM
The KPÖ are just SPÖ in a darker shade of red. Still I’m going to root for their rise in the polls because I despise official European social democrats. After many years of far right fascists like FPÖVP bungling things up, many are tired with their nation being a joke country.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: brucejoel99 on June 05, 2023, 09:20:50 AM


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on June 05, 2023, 09:28:23 AM
Hans Peter Doskozil is elected as new SPÖ leader:





Actually, Babler was elected and not Doskozil because they mixed up the results, to the SPÖ's embarrassment:





Other sources:

https://orf.at/stories/3319205/

https://www.derstandard.at/jetzt/livebericht/3000000173322/spoe-setzt-ueberraschend-pressekonferenz-mit-an


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 05, 2023, 09:55:34 AM
Approximate translation into THIGMOO English: following Yvette Cooper's removal as Leader, it was thought that Stephen Kinnock had been elected in her stead, but this was the result of an administrative cock-up and, actually, John Cryer won.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: JimJamUK on June 05, 2023, 10:02:49 AM
What the actual f**k?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on June 05, 2023, 10:14:49 AM
This is so goddamn funny


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Babeuf on June 05, 2023, 10:29:19 AM
Beyond embarrassing for a serious party to have this happen.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Mike88 on June 05, 2023, 10:39:07 AM

Jesus Christ!! This is beyond embarrassing and could probably tarnish SPÖ's reputation. Like Babeuf said, for a major party this is... well, without words or comments.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 05, 2023, 10:41:39 AM
Since when were there serious parties in Austria?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: brucejoel99 on June 05, 2023, 12:44:48 PM
Just incredible:



Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on June 05, 2023, 01:22:59 PM
RIGGED election!


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Logical on June 05, 2023, 01:40:45 PM
You had 1 (ONE) job, SPÖ electoral committee.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 05, 2023, 02:34:13 PM
I love how this is an exact repeat of the presidential election screw up from a few years ago. Maybe Austria isn't mature enough to have a democracy lol.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 05, 2023, 02:43:07 PM
Can someone edit Doskozil and Babler over miss columbia and Miss Philippines in the steve harvey screw up?


Title: Small incident in the choice of the new leader of the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs
Post by: buritobr on June 05, 2023, 03:39:57 PM
The Austrian Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) chose a new leader. There was a technical error: a wrong winner of the internal election was announced. It was corrected only 2 days later.


Austrian Social Democrats announce wrong leader after ‘technical error’
Party officials say Andreas Babler won race, not Hans Peter Doskozil as previously declared due to Excel error
Austria’s Social Democratic party has admitted a “technical error” in an Excel file led to it announcing the wrong candidate as its new leader.

Officials at the centre-left SPÖ said on Monday that Andreas Babler, the mayor of the south-eastern city of Traiskirchen, had in fact won the race, and not Hans Peter Doskozil, the governor of the south-eastern Burgenland region, who had been declared the winner on Saturday.

“The ballots didn’t match the digitally announced result,” said the SPÖ’s electoral commissioner, Michaela Grubesa. “Because of a technical error in the Excel file the results were mixed up.”

The mistake had come to light only because a journalist had spotted a missing vote in the final result and raised the matter with the party’s electoral commission, prompting a recount, Austrian media reported.
...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/05/austrian-social-democrats-announce-wrong-leader-after-technical-error


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 on June 06, 2023, 04:48:01 AM
I love how this is an exact repeat of the presidential election screw up from a few years ago. Maybe Austria isn't mature enough to have a democracy lol.

AuSStria, the country with the addiction to grand coalitions of Germany and to partitocratic patronage of Italy but worse in both cases, which goes "la la la I can't hear you" when you point out it started WW1 and produced Hitler, knowingly elected as president a former Wehrmacht intelligence officer, and can't even sodding count votes correctly, is not mature for democracy? Ha, what a fanciful and outlandish idea.


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: PSOL on June 13, 2023, 12:32:29 PM
Well, it’s happened again, Jacobin is creaming their pants over a lackluster nominal social democratic politician (https://jacobin.com/2023/06/andreas-babler-marxist-austria-social-democratic-party-leadership) as the KPÖ rises to new heights


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: PSOL on June 18, 2023, 04:41:20 PM
Since when were there serious parties in Austria?
Honey, have you looked at what options there are in Britain?


Title: Re: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
Post by: Harlow on March 10, 2024, 12:21:13 PM
Communists make huge gains in Salzburg, and will compete in a runoff for the mayorship next week.