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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Mike88 on January 01, 2020, 08:46:49 AM



Title: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 01, 2020, 08:46:49 AM
New year, new thread.

The old thread: Portugal's politics and elections (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=245861.0)

The old thread was becoming too big and had more than 3 years of covering Portuguese politics and elections. So, welcome to the new thread, Portugal's politics and elections 2.0.

Political summary:

President of the Republic: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD) 2016-Incumbent
Prime Minister: António Costa (PS) 2015-Incumbent
Leader of the Opposition (unofficial): Rui Rio (PSD) 2018-Incumbent
Speaker of Parliament: Ferro Rodrigues (PS) 2015-Incumbent

Election results since 1975: (General, European and Local)
()

Poll averages since 2001:
()

Current "poll of polls": (From here (https://europeelects.eu/european-union/portugal/))

35.3% PS
26.0% PSD
10.2% BE
   6.8% CDU
   4.9% PAN
   4.2% CHEGA
   3.6% CDS
   2.0% IL
   1.0% Livre
   0.0% Alliance
   6.0% Others/Invalid

Political events in 2020:

11 January: PSD leadership election
18 January: 2nd round PSD leadership election (if necessary)
25-26 January: CDS national congress to elect a new leader
7-9 February: PSD national congress
April-May: PS national congress
October: Azores regional elections
27-29 November: PCP national congress

Local by-elections:

12 January: Caniçada e Soengas by-election
16 February: Mindelo by-election


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 01, 2020, 12:28:36 PM
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warns Costa to not act like if has an absolute majority in the President's New Year message.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-01-01-Nao-ha-maioria-absoluta-dialoguem-E-mais-quatro-avisos-de-Marcelo)


Quote
"Greater attention to misery": Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa calls for a better year than 2019 in New Year's message

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, the President of the Republic, spent the New Year's eve on Portugal's farthest place, the Corvo island, which has around 350 inhabitants. Almost a third of the island inhabitants dinned with the President last night. It was from this island that the President addressed the nation in the traditional New Year's message. In his message, Marcelo asked for a better year than the last one, asked for not forgeting the big urgent reforms Portugal needs on healthcare and poverty, and warned António Costa to not act like if he had an absolute majority adding that he needs to talk and negotiate to have a strong and stable government. The President also asked for a strong opposition against the government in order to have an alternative, which is healthy to democracy.

After the live broadcast of the message, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa did, as usual, his traditional New Year's diving in the shore of Corvo island:


Quote
After giving his New Year message to the Portuguese, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa held his first bath of the year on the island of Corvo, in the Azores.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 02, 2020, 02:39:22 PM
PSD leadership election: Candidates manifestos are unveiled.


Quote
Three candidacies were formally accepted for the PSD leadership.

The three candidacies for the PSD leadership, and their respective manifestos, were formally accepted, today, by the PSD national council. The manifestos were posted in the PSD website.  (https://www.psd.pt/eleicoes-directas-informacoes-2-janeiro/) The main lines are the following:

Rui Rio:

- Following the policies proposed in the 2019 general election manifesto;
- Reform of the political system;
- More focus and support to exportation rather than importations;
- Tax cuts, investment in wages and more integration with the digital economy;
- Reaching the goal of carbon neutrality by 2030;
- More investment and reform in the NHS;

- Preparing the party for government starting in 2021;
- Winning more cities and mandates in 2021 local elections;
- Reinforcing the "reformist" soul of the PSD;

Luís Montenegro:

- Investment in housing policies;
- Investment and reform of public transportation;
- Index Portugal to the Gross National Happiness (GNH);
- More cooperation between public and private in the NHS;
- Support of policies towards gender equality and against domestic violence towards women;
- Tax cuts and more support to companies;

- Consolidating the PSD as a big force to defeat the PS and the leftwing parties;
- Winning all elections ahead (regional in the Azores, local election and general elections in 2023);
- Supporting the reelection of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa as President of the Republic;

Miguel Pinto Luz:

- More support to businesses and entrepreneurs;
- Investment in productivity and sustainability;
- Tax cuts for families and businesses;
- Rehabilitation of public buildings and Infrastructures;
- Environmental Tax Reform that promotes the emergence of environmental businesses (VAT; Corporate taxes);
- Reform and investment in the NHS;

- Winning the 2020 Azores, 2021 local and 2023 General elections;
- Defining the PSD as a reformist party and the only non-socialist alternative;
- Unifying and giving more voice to members of the party;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 02, 2020, 06:53:50 PM
Crisis in CDS: CDS-PP officials complain of bullying and challenge dismissal. (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/funcionarios-do-cds-pp-queixam-se-de-bullying-e-impugnam-despedimento?fbclid=IwAR2n6aoXnCCadO8B0w8TfwdiohOGW3F5frydxZk_fumEpsRBm2HpLMEuHMk)


Quote
CDS-PP officials complain of bullying and challenge dismissal
Workers have not accepted proposed compensation and complain that they are not given anything to do.

Quote
CDS-PP officials have decided to challenge their dismissal for terminating their job, accusing the party of 'bullying' for having been sidelined for two months with 'nothing to do'.

Speaking to Lusa, Alexandra Uva said on Thursday that she had been effective for a decade and that her job was extinguished at the end of October, with the justification that the party is going through a complicated phase, but her Last day of work was on Friday.

Since she was told she would be fired, this party adviser complains of bullying.

"During these two months I have been completely put aside. They give me nothing to do at a time when there is work to do as it is a pre-congress period," he said, considering it "a matter of bullying." .

(...)

"They set me aside to affect me psychologically, to be the one to give up,"she lamented.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2020, 08:39:58 AM
2020 budget: Costa pressures BE and CDU to vote in favour next week and then negotiate.  (https://www.dn.pt/edicao-do-dia/04-jan-2020/oe-2020-governo-pressiona-be-e-pcp-primeiro-viabilizem-depois-negoceia-se-11670185.html?target=conteudo_fechado)


Quote
2020 budget: Government presses BE and PCP: first make it possible, then negotiate

BE and CDU will decide their vote, regarding the 2020 budget, almost in the dark. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-01-04-PCP-e-BE-decidem-sobre-Orcamento-do-Estado-as-escuras) Costa met, yesterday, with BE and CDU leaders but didn't compromise with nothing only, according to the media, that the leftwing should vote in favour of the budget in next week's overall vote and then negotiate policy by policy until the final vote in early February. BE will decide this weekend how to vote, however a non decision is also likely, while CDU has no plans to announce a vote decision. 

The other parties will announce their decision early in the next week. PSD will announce next Tuesday, an almost certain NO vote to the budget, while Livre is, once again, is the middle of a confusion. The Livre party leadership wants to abstain, but the Livre sole MP, Joacine Katar Moreira, says she's "independent" and that the Livre leadership decision isn't biding. So, if the PS-BE-CDU alliance fails, Costa still could have the PS-PAN-PSD/Madeira/Livre alliance, but it's still unclear if PAN and PSD/Madeira will fall in line, especially PSD/Madeira.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2020, 12:35:17 PM
JUST IN 2020 Budget: BE will not vote in favour. Only abstention and vote against are on the table.  (https://observador.pt/2020/01/04/nao-ha-condicoes-para-aprovar-o-orcamento-do-estado-diz-catarina-martins/)

Just announced by BE leader Catarina Martins in a press conference.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2020, 02:20:07 PM
Right now, the budget vote count is the following:  (https://observador.pt/2020/01/04/be-nao-vota-a-favor-livre-deve-abster-se-como-vao-as-contas-para-aprovar-o-orcamento/)

108 In favour (PS)
   83 Against (PSD, CDS, CHEGA, IL)
  39 In doubt (BE, CDU, PAN, PSD-Madeira, Livre)

I put the PSD in the against column because it's basically a forgone conclusion. Rio hasn't officially stated the party's position but all his rhetoric has been very harsh towards Costa, which he now calls the "Owner of the State". Plus, it would be political suicide to abstain just in the eve of a leadership election.

BE and CDU are really in a difficult place. Costa isn't budging a single bit from the budget draft and is putting all the pressure on the leftwing parties. BE will not vote in favour, but is open to abstaining which will depend on the PS response next week. CDU is also undecided and there's no position planned. The same for PAN. Livre is a mess, as usual.

The vote will be next Friday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2020, 07:34:03 PM
PSD leadership election: Miguel Pinto Luz open to future coalitions with CHEGA.  (https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2020-01-04-Miguel-Pinto-Luz-admite-coligar-se-ao-Chega-se-PSD-precisar-1)

During the presentation of his manifesto for next Saturday's leadership election, Miguel Pinto Luz said he was open to the idea of the PSD forming a coalition with André Ventura's CHEGA in order to have a majority in Parliament. He added that unlike the other 2 candidates in the race, he has no red lines regarding coalition with other parties. Montenegro, and Rio more off the record, have already excluded coalitions with CHEGA.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 06, 2020, 02:34:12 PM
Costa returns to the table with the leftwing parties in order to solve the budget deadlock:  (https://expresso.pt/dossies/diario/2020-01-06-Costa-volta-as-negociacoes-a-esquerda-para-desbloquear-OE)

António Costa will start talking, once again, with the leftwing parties in order to solve the current 2020 budget deadlock. BE will not vote in favour and PCP is silent. However, neither António Costa nor Mário Centeno, at least in public, are willing to drop parts of the budget to please the leftwing parties. During this Monday's session of Parliament, Mário Centeno didn't seem open to the Left's pleas to more investment, and higher wage increases, not to mention VAT cut in energy bills, with Centeno, over and over, talking of responsibility. The most likely outcome, as of now, seems to be the abstention of BE and PCP, the votes against of the Right opposition and only the PS votes in favour. We'll see



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 06, 2020, 06:46:23 PM
This happened...

André Ventura wants Vox leader Santiago Abascal to "publicly retract" the map where Spain annexes Portugal:


Quote
In a map released by Vox, Portugal is attached to Spain. André Ventura will personally demand from Abascal a "public correction of the error".

The map released by Vox, for a rally against Pedro Sanchéz new government, in which Portugal is part of Spain, made CHEGA leader André Ventura to ask Santiago Abascal to publicly retract and apologize because of the map. Ventura added that he will meet with Abascal next Saturday and will ask him to apologize, and, if not, relations between CHEGA and Vox could be hurt.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 07, 2020, 04:15:04 PM
2020 budget: As expected, Rui Rio announces the PSD will vote against.  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/psd-vai-votar-contra-proposta-do-orcamento-do-estado-anuncia-rui-rio_n1196396)



The announcement was expected, but Rui Rio confirmed it today. The PSD will vote against the 2020 budget. Rio accused the government of designing a budget with no real path and only has tactical policies, adding also that the budget doesn't use fiscal policies to shore up the economy. Although Rio hails the budget surplus, he accuses the government of raising taxes and of bad management in public investment.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 08, 2020, 02:27:20 PM
2020 Budget: More parties announce voting intentions - PCP and PAN will abstain. (https://observador.pt/2020/01/08/pcp-abstem-se-na-votacao-do-orcamento-mas-deixa-aviso-para-a-votacao-final/)


Quote
PCP abstains in the 2020 Budget.

PCP will abstain in the 2020 budget vote next Friday. This makes the passing of the budget almost certain, as Costa has now 14 abstention, PAN also announced their abstention, meaning he only needs one more MP to abstain in order for the budget to pass. The general vote will, therefore, next Friday with the final vote in early February. Until then, parties will discuss policy by policy of the budget and, in theory, voting intentions could change, but that's unlikely.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 08, 2020, 03:23:19 PM
PSD leadership race: Campaign reaches the final days with the Madeira votes surrounded in controversy.

The 3 candidates for the PSD leadership are holding the final campaign events until election day, Saturday. Rui Rio is saying he will not change as leader, adding that if you don't like him, its better not to vote for him. Luís Montengro wants to lead a "new PSD" like Cavaco Silva did in the mid 80's. But, the last few days of the campaign have been marked by tensions between the PSD-Madeira and the national PSD because of the number of members registered in Madeira:


Quote
PSD-Madeira opposes Jurisdiction Council and reiterates that 2,500 members are able to vote

The new rules, in order to registered to vote, are in the center of all. The national PSD say only 104 members are registered, and these 104 don't include high PSD-Madeira members like the incumbent Madeira President Miguel Albuquerque, while the regional PSD says that 2,500 members are registered, as the PSD-Madeira accepts membership payments, in cash, in the party's headquarters in Funchal, which violates the rules. The regional party says that these members can vote, but the national PSD is threatening their regional branch saying if they count those votes, the election will be nullified in Madeira. Rio wants the elections to be "clean" and isn't budging to Madeira, while Montenegro and Pinto Luz are criticizing Rio for punishing PSD members in a PSD bastion.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 09, 2020, 05:51:23 PM
2020 budget: Costa gets the budget approved after all leftwing parties decided to abstain leaving the PS as the sole party in favour.

António Costa got the passing of his 5th budget after all leftwing parties, BE, CDU, PAN, Livre plus PSD-Madeira, announced they would abstain in the budget vote tommorrow. This leaves the PS as the only party voting in favour with 108 votes, against the 83 votes of the rightwing parties combined.


Quote
State budget is the first PS one with the abstention from the Left since 2015.

During the 1st day of the debate, this afternoon, both side, left and right, criticized the budget but from different perspectives. The right accused the government of raising taxes again, while the left accused the government of having an obsession with the surplus and of cutting investment. PSD leader, Rui Rio, accused Centeno of erasing 590 million euros from the budget, asking ironically to the PM, where's Wally. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/rui-rio-acusa-governo-de-falta-de-estrategia_v1196984) The PSD later accused Costa of living in a fantasy land. The left parties, BE and CDU, said this budget is worse than the last four and the budget lacks a strategy and a path. (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/oe2020-proposta-nao-e-melhor-do-que-as-anteriores-diz-catarina-martins-533657) While PCP, accused Costa of being obsessed with the surplus and being submissive towards the EU rules.

The PM said this budget is his best one till date and said that with the 2020 budget, the country will not go backwards. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/antonio-costa-com-este-orcamento-nao-ha-retrocessos_n1196916) Costa added that the budget continues the strategy of more growth, better jobs and good accounts. He also hailed the budget surplus expected for 2020.

The 1st budget vote is tomorrow. There will be a final vote in early February. The current tally is the following:

108 In Favour (PS)
  83 Against (PSD, CDS, IL, CHEGA)
  39 Abstention (BE, CDU, PAN, PSD-Madeira, Livre)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 10, 2020, 02:48:14 PM
2020 Budget: Parliament approves the budget draft.  (https://expresso.pt/dossies/diario/2020-01-10-O-Orcamento-do-Estado-passou.-A-crise-PS-BE-nem-por-isso-1)


Quote
State Budget for 2020 approved by the PS.

Everything happened as planned. The sole 108 PS votes approved the budget, while the right voted against and the leftwing abstained.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 10, 2020, 05:47:50 PM
Tensions in the PSD: Rui Rio will send the PSD-Madeira MPs case to the party's jurisdiction committee.  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/rio-vai-comunicar-quebra-de-disciplina-de-voto-do-psdmadeira-a-jurisdicao-do-partido-11693367.html)

Rui Rio, PSD leader, was clearly upset for being informed of the PSD-Madeira MPs vote by the media. Rio said to reporters he was probably going to be informed by SMS by the PSD-Madeira leader, Miguel Albuquerque. And after the vote, Rio informed that the PSD-Madeira MPs, who abstain in the budget vote, violated party protocol and that he would send this case to the party's jurisdiction committee, the PSD "court". This controversy adds more tensions between Rio and the PSD-Madeira, with the membership lists controversy still going. But, the PSD-Madeira is also divided. Rio's supporter and historic PSD figure, Alberto João Jardim, is defending Rio and condemning the PSD-Madeira position. And the PSD-Madeira sister party, the PSD-Azores, is saying they will follow the national rules (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1391652/psdacores-garante-que-vai-respeitar-a-regra-do-pagamento-de-quotas), leaving PSD-Madeira alone.

PSD candidates have also different positions: Rio and Montenegro are downplaying the case, while Miguel Pinto Luz is sad that many PSD members in Madeira cannot vote.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2020, 08:16:17 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper:  (https://www.dnoticias.pt/impressa/hemeroteca/diario-de-noticias/orcamento-do-estado-com-aprovacao-BF5654715)

Vote share %:

37.2% PS (+0.1)
26.5% PSD (-0.4)
  9.6% BE (+0.1)
  6.6% CDU (-0.5)
  3.6% PAN (+0.1)
  3.5% CDS (-0.1)
  2.2% CHEGA (+0.3)
  1.3% IL (+0.2)
  0.6% Livre (nc)
  8.9% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Q1: Should the 2020 budget be approved?

69.0% Yes
11.0% No
20.0% Undecided

Q2: Do you agree with the VAT increase on bullfights?

37.3% No
33.0% Yes
29.8% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 9 January 2020. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2020, 09:22:42 AM
PSD leadership election: Polls opened at 2 PM and will stay open until 8 PM.  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/militantes-do-psd-escolhem-hoje-lider-entre-tres-candidatos_v1197307)

40,584 PSD members are registered to vote in today's leadership election. The issue about Madeira continues as the national PSD only counts 104 members registered while the regional party counts 2,500. This affair could end in courts, we'll see. Turnout is a big doubt as the discreet campaign may hurt turnout. If no candidate achieves 50%+1 of the votes, a 2nd round will be held next Saturday.

Results will start to be announced at 8 PM, when polls close.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2020, 12:56:56 PM
PSD leadership elections: The Madeira result could be contested and nullified.

The voting in the PSD leadership election is ongoing, and in Madeira the controversy continues. Alberto João Jardim, historic leader of the PSD-Madeira and Rui Rio supporter, said he will contest and ask to nullified the elections in Madeira (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/psd-jardim-impugnou-eleicoes-porque-caderno-eleitoral-da-madeira-e-ilegal?ref=Economia_Destaque) due to illegalities done by the regional party. He formally complained to the regional party structure and said the voter lists are illegal. At the same time, the current PSD leader, Miguel Albuquerque, says that the autonomy of the PSD-Madeira is being attacked by the national PSD and that they will follow the same rules of the last 40 years.

Rui Rio, current PSD leader, after voting in Porto city, asked for a high turnout and said the Madeira issue will be dealt after the elections (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/problema-para-resolver-depois-rio-comenta-impugnacao-das-eleicoes-do-psd-na-madeira?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias1), adding that the annulment of the elections in Madeira is a possibility.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2020, 03:06:59 PM
PSD leadership elections: Polls start to close and vote counting underway.

The polls in the PSD leadership election closed at 8PM. Counting is undergoing all across the country. During the day, and alongside the Madeira issue, another controversy erupted in Amadora city, Lisbon. There, Rui Rio supporters said membership cards were being delivered in the door of the party headquarters and that no ID cards were being shown by party members. This created a tense argument between the Rio delegate and others.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2020, 03:20:26 PM
First results in: 10.8% reporting:

50.8% Luís Montenegro
44.5% Rui Rio
  3.9% Miguel Pinto Luz

Results from here: https://www.psd.pt/psd-ao-segundo/


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2020, 03:34:21 PM
32.1% reporting:

50.9% Rui Rio
44.0% Luís Montenegro
  5.1% Miguel Pinto Luz


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: VPH on January 11, 2020, 03:40:33 PM
32.1% reporting:

50.9% Rui Rio
44.0% Luís Montenegro
  5.1% Miguel Pinto Luz

Man this is close!


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2020, 03:49:24 PM
32.1% reporting:

50.9% Rui Rio
44.0% Luís Montenegro
  5.1% Miguel Pinto Luz

Man this is close!

It was expected but Rio's lead seems to be expanding with more than 12,000 votes counted:

54.4% Rui Rio
39.7% Luís Montenegro
  5.9% Miguel Pinto Luz


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2020, 08:25:26 PM
PSD leadership election: Rui Rio fails to win in the 1st ballot by just 300 votes. A second round between Rio and Montenegro to be held next Saturday.

Final tally:  (https://www.psd.pt/psd-ao-segundo/)

49.3% Rui Rio (15,469 votes)
41.6% Luís Montenegro (13,039 votes)
  9.2% Miguel Pinto Luz (2,886 votes)

77.1% Turnout


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 11 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2020, 08:47:04 PM
PSD leadership election: Rui Rio fails to win in the 1st ballot by just 300 votes. A second round between Rio and Montenegro to be held next Saturday.

Final tally:  (https://www.psd.pt/psd-ao-segundo/)

49.3% Rui Rio (15,469 votes)
41.6% Luís Montenegro (13,039 votes)
  9.2% Miguel Pinto Luz (2,886 votes)

77.1% Turnout

Rio seemed poised to win in the first ballot, but late returns were very favourable to Montenegro and Pinto Luz. The 3 candidates spoke after the final results were announced:


Quote
Rui Rio Rui Rio thanks "expressive victory" that forces the second round by new rules.

Rui Rio thanked the PSD members and ordinary voters who urged him to run for a second term and said that victory is very near, as the margin to achieve 50%+1 is just 0.6%. Rio congratulated the other candidates and said that if he wins the 2nd round, he will count on the support of Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz. Rio also refused a TV debate between him and Montenegro.


Quote
"More voted for change than continuity," says Luís Montenegro

Luís Montenegro thanked his supporters and acknowledged that more PSD members voted against Rio than in favour in the 1st round. He did a special tribute to Miguel Pinto Luz, thanking him for his service to the party. He also challenged Rio for a TV debate. He ended his speech singing the Portuguese national anthem.


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Miguel Pinto Luz: "We surprised all"

Miguel Pinto Luz started his speech by acknowledging his defeat and congratulating Rui Rio and Luís Montenegro. He said his candidacy surprised all because of the result and the reform proposals he laid out during the campaign.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2020, 07:54:56 AM
Maps of the 1st round of the PSD leadership election:

()

Rio was able to win the big urban areas in Porto and Aveiro, and was able to hold on to considerable support in places where Montenegro and Pinto Luz were hoping for huge margins for them, like Braga and Lisbon.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: VPH on January 12, 2020, 09:43:47 AM
Maps of the 1st round of the PSD leadership election:

()

Rio was able to win the big urban areas in Porto and Aveiro, and was able to hold on to considerable support in places where Montenegro and Pinto Luz were hoping for huge margins for them, like Braga and Lisbon.

Interesting that Montenegro carried the PSD-heavy areas of the middle of Portugal like Leiria but that Rio nonetheless did well in the North.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2020, 10:10:28 AM
Interesting that Montenegro carried the PSD-heavy areas of the middle of Portugal like Leiria but that Rio nonetheless did well in the North.

He did win a lot of places in the center of the country, but not by big margins. For example, in Leiria city, Montenegro got just 2 more votes than Rio. The same happened in Viseu city, where Montenegro polled just 1 vote ahead of Rio. Plus, Rio racked up ridiculous margins in Porto and Aveiro, places where Montenegro was hoping to gain some support.

The media is basically saying Rio will probably win the second round. Miguel Pinto Luz didn't endorse any candidate, and his supporters don't like Montenegro that much. Some newspapers, like Expresso, say that the PSD base dislikes more Montenegro than Rio and that they didn't forget the January 2019 attempted "coup" by Montenegro. But, only next Saturday we'll know for sure.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2020, 11:16:20 AM
Also today, Local by-election in Caniçada e Soengas parish, Vieira do Minho, Braga district:

584 voters are registered to vote and there are 2 lists in the ballot: Independent and the PS. The incumbent is an independent, who is running for reelection.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2020, 04:09:39 PM
Caniçada e Soengas by-election - Independent hold: (https://ominho.pt/independentes-vencem-intercalares-em-uniao-de-freguesias-em-vieira-do-minho/)

71.2% Independent, 5 seats
25.6% PS, 2
  3.3% Blank/Invalid

73.6% Turnout


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2020, 02:23:42 PM
Tensions continue in Livre: Joacine Katar Moreira could be booted out from her MP seat next weekend.  (https://observador.pt/2020/01/13/livre-vota-mocao-para-retirar-confianca-politica-a-joacine-katar-moreira-partido-pode-perder-representacao-parlamentar/)


Quote
Livre holds vote to remove Joacine Katar Moreira from parliament.

Livre continues deeply divided towards Joacine Katar Moreira. Next weekend, the party's congress will be held and one vote demands the resignation of Joacine Katar Moreira as a MP, and if she refuses that, the solution is to strip the party's support for her, meaning she would become an Independent MP and Livre loses representation in Parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2020, 04:05:09 PM
PSD leadership election: Rio and Montenegro start gaining Pinto Luz supporters in almost equal rate so far.  (https://observador.pt/2020/01/13/swing-votes-os-apoiantes-de-pinto-luz-que-passaram-para-rio-e-montenegro-em-menos-de-48-horas/)

48 hours after the 1st round of the PSD leadership election, both Rio and Montenegro start gaining support from Miguel Pinto Luz supporters. Montenegro, so far, has gain the support of the PSD district leader in Setúbal and former general-secretaries of the PSD Matos Rosa and Miguel Relvas. While Rio has gained the support of former Cavaco Silva minister, Mira Amaral, and the head list MPs from Aveiro and Setúbal. At the same time, both sides are trying to mobilize their voters for a 2nd round, as fears of demobilization are real.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 15, 2020, 03:13:04 PM
PSD leadership election: PSD-Madeira boycots the second round.  (https://www.publico.pt/2020/01/14/politica/noticia/rebeliao-psdmadeira-boicota-segunda-volta-directas-1900280)


Quote
PSD-Madeira will boycott second round of the party' elections.

The PSD-Madeira members will not vote in next Saturday's second round of the leadership election. The leadership of PSD-Madeira made this decision to boycott the elections after the electoral commission of the party declared invalid the more than 1,700 votes from Madeira. PSD and the PSD-Madeira are in collision course due to the number of members registered to vote, as PSD-Madeira has refused to adopt the new membership fee payments rules approved last year.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: crals on January 17, 2020, 05:42:02 PM
Costa is having a 2nd Christmas honestly


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: bigic on January 17, 2020, 05:44:58 PM
Is a split of PSD Madeira from the national PSD inevitable?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2020, 05:58:50 PM
Weekend of decisions in PSD and Livre:

This Saturday, almost 41,000 PSD members will vote in the second round of the PSD primaries. The last few days were marked by accusations of influences buying by both sides, and with Montenegro accusing Rio supporters of election fraud. Nonetheless, the media is predicting a Rio win and even Montenegro supporters don't believe in a victory and are now openly asking to Pedro Passos Coelho to return:


Quote
PSD. Montenegro supporters are already calling for a return of Passos (that is not turned to that).

We'll see what happens tomorrow.

And in Livre, there will be also a decision regarding the position of Joacine Katar Moreira in the party. In the party's congress, to be held this weekend, there is a motion to dump her from the party, and Ms Moreira isn't even registered to be in the party's congress. The outcome is still wide open. Livre could expell her from the party, but she could continue as a MP and Livre loses parliamentary representation. The option of Ms. Moreira resigning is quite unlikely.


Quote
Politics - Livre's Assembly points to "avoidable" political errors from Joacine Katar Moreira.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2020, 06:15:44 PM
Costa is having a 2nd Christmas honestly

Well, we have seen this film several times: the PS after the 1991 election, the PSD after the 1995 election, the PSD after the 2005 election and the PS during the Costa-Seguro feud, between 2011-2014. Costa continues to ride the wave of a good economic situation, but, even with this, he got just 36% of the votes and polling after the election doesn't point to a honeymoon for Costa. IMO, the welfare crisis continues to hurt Costa and he doesn't seem very keen on proposing strong policies towards the NHS, Education, Infrastructure, etc.

But, you're right that this benefits Costa. If the biggest opposition party continues in internal battle, only the faithfull will only vote for them leaving Costa open to gain swing voters and becoming the domineering figure in current Portuguese politics.

Is a split of PSD Madeira from the national PSD inevitable?

That's basically impossible, and relations between the national PSD and PSD-Madeira have a long history of being sometimes quite tense. Cavaco Silva had feuds with Alberto João Jardim, as did Passos Coelho, and this time the PSD-Madeira has, literally, omelettes in their suits. Their argument is that they are an autonomous part of the PSD and that the national rules don't apply to them, which isn't true as PSD-Azores, the PSD-Madeira sister party, is following national rules. The relation between Rio and Albuquerque also deteriorated quite fast, and by no apparent reason, with the possibility of Albuquerque thinking that Rio was a dead men walking and that ignoring him was the way to go.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: PSOL on January 17, 2020, 06:48:24 PM
Wait, why are Livre booting Ms. Moreira out?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2020, 07:03:19 PM
Wait, why are Livre booting Ms. Moreira out?

It's not a final decision, but it's highly likely. It all started with a vote, last November, condemning Israel's treatment of Palestine, proposed by BE. Livre' position was to vote in favour, but Joacine Katar Moreira abstained without communicating her decision to the party leadership. Then, this evolved into an accusation match between both sides, with Ms Moreira accusing Livre of not listening to her and that she was an "Independent", while Livre accused her of being bossy and not responding to their messages and calls. A party meeting tried to calm down the situation, but the tension was still there. Now, her budget vote was the final straw. Livre's official position was abstention, but she said that Livre' position didn't apply to her and that she would make her own mind. She ultimately abstained, but only after she had a meeting with the government, where also she failed to communicate the existence of that meeting to the Livre leadership. Many party members are fed up with her behavior and want her out.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2020, 08:05:01 AM
Big tense moment in the Livre congress when Joacine Katar Moreira spoke:



Quote
What it is being done here, is unacceptable. These are lies! Lies! Shame! These are utter lies! Coming here to say all these lies in front of the country?

Also during her speech, she announced she has no intentions of resigning from her MP seat and accused Livre of only using her for being black, that stutters and that was usefull to get party subsidies.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 18, 2020, 08:39:11 AM
Is a split of PSD Madeira from the national PSD inevitable?

Beyond what Mike88 said, I am fairly sure such a split would be illegal considering Portugal has a constitutional ban on regional parties


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: VPH on January 18, 2020, 09:30:27 AM
The notion that LIVRE is going to potentially expel their one MP they worked so hard to elect over an Israel/Palestine vote is pretty telling about how serious of a contender the party can be. I think their voters will go to PAN or BE if the party continues to not get itself together.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Farmlands on January 18, 2020, 09:47:40 AM
The notion that LIVRE is going to potentially expel their one MP they worked so hard to elect over an Israel/Palestine vote is pretty telling about how serious of a contender the party can be. I think their voters will go to PAN or BE if the party continues to not get itself together.

It's been a hilarious trainwreck to watch from here. As someone who was once considering voting for them in the next European elections, due to their pro-EU stance: no way, no how. They've proven themselves to be one of the most incompetent elected parties in Portugal's history.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2020, 10:10:14 AM
Livre congress: Decision on expelling Joacine Katar Moreira as a MP defeated by just 2 votes (52 to 50)  (https://observador.pt/2020/01/18/joacine-diz-que-esta-fora-de-questao-renunciar-ao-lugar-de-deputada/)

Joacine Katar Moreira expulsion as an MP was postponed to a later Livre meeting as the vote to decide her future was defeated by just 2 votes, 52 to 50. Her position will, now, be decided in a Livre party assembly with the new elected members of the party leadership, which are being elected in this weekend's party congress.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2020, 10:15:24 AM
PSD leadership election: Polls opened at 14:00 and will close at 20:00h:

Polls for the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election are now open. They opened at 14:00h and will stay open until 20:00h. There are almost 41,000 members registered.

Results will start to be released after polls close in here: https://www.psd.pt/psd-ao-segundo/


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2020, 11:23:20 AM
PSD leadership election: According to SIC Notícias, turnout seems lower than in the 1st round, a week ago, when 79% of PSD registered members voted. It's unclear who's benefiting from this.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2020, 09:22:25 PM
PSD leadership election: Rui Rio is re-elected.  (https://resultados.psd.pt/ao-momento)

53.1% Rui Rio (17,009 votes)
46.9% Luís Montenegro (15,018 votes)

79.7% Turnout


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2020, 09:38:07 PM
Candidates reactions:


Quote
Rui Rio, President of the PSD. "There was a time to mark differences, now it is time to mark the unity"

Rui Rio said the party voted for estability and also said he hopes he can work with "stability and loyalty", adding that the party isn't "divided" and it's time to unite the party. He concluded saying that he won the PSD and now it's time to win the country.


Quote
Montenegro: "May Rui Rio give back unity to the PSD"

Luís Montenegro congratulated Rui Rio and asked Rio to unite the party after these primaries. He said he would go back to became an ordinary party base member but, added that people should not declare him as politically dead.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2020, 10:41:37 PM
Maps of the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election:

()


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: VPH on January 18, 2020, 10:50:02 PM
My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2020, 07:33:48 AM
My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.

Well, I believe it's still to early to predict that. CDS is on the verge of disappearing, yes, but the PSD is polling at 26-27% right now, meaning that their October electorate is, for now, not going anywhere. Plus, CHEGA is going throw an interesting moment. Ventura is purging many party members that have connections with far-right movements and has even changed the party's description to become more "moderate". Rio himself, last week, opened the door to future coalition with CHEGA if they have a positive evolution, meaning, becoming more moderate.


Quote
Ventura investigates mass registrations in Chega. And it promises to take confidence from "extremist, subversive or racist" leaders

I don't know if Rio will last until the 2023 general election, the 2021 midterm local elections will be crucial for him, but I believe the big change could be what happens on the right of the PSD. IL isn't performing that well as all of the attention is on CHEGA and I don't think they will get big surge in the future.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2020, 07:43:28 AM
Maps of the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election:

()

Rio gained many votes in his strongholds and was able to reduce Montenegro's lead in places like Braga and Coimbra. Montenegro gained many Pinto Luz voters in Lisbon and Setúbal, but it wasn't enough to upset the big margins he lost by in Porto and Aveiro. On the map, Rio gained a lot of cities from Montenegro in the North, while Montenegro swept everything in Lisbon. On the district map, Montenegro won Lisbon and Setúbal from Pinto Luz and gained Portalegre from Rio.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2020, 01:09:36 PM
Livre congress: New elected party leadership board has a majority against Joacine Katar Moreira.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-01-19-A-esperanca-de-Joacine-esvai-se-em-27-votoshttps://expresso.pt/politica/2020-01-19-A-esperanca-de-Joacine-esvai-se-em-27-votos)

The new Livre leadership board was elected with 95 votes in favour out of 110, but it has a clear majority against Joacine Katar Moreira. 27 members were re-elected and they are clearly anti-Joacine, the 16 new members could still side in favour of Ms. Moreira, but it's not enough. It basically certain that Livre will lose its seat in Parliament and Joacine Katar Moreira will become an Independent... unless she creates her own party, who knows.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2020, 04:20:44 PM
PSD leadership election: PSD-Madeira congratulates Rui Rio and wants to unite the party.  (https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/683518/psd-madeira-disponivel-para-defender-partido)


Quote
PSD/Madeira congratulates Rio and says they're "available" to defend social democracy

It seems that PSD-Madeira wants truces after their bitter conflict with the national party regarding the membership registration. The PSD regional branch, who boycotted the second round, congratulated Rui Rio, wants to defend "social democracy" and unite and mobilize PSD voters for the 2021 midterm local elections. They also added that they are ready to fight the real adversaries, the PS. The PSD-Madeira finalized the statement saying all issues with the national PSD will be resolved in due process.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2020, 02:26:51 PM
Luanda Leaks hits Portuguese politics with Costa denying any special treatment to Isabel dos Santos:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/mundo/luanda-leaks-antonio-costa-garante-total-colaboracao-e-nega-tratamento-especial-a-isabel-dos-santos_n1199790)


Quote
Luanda Leaks. António Costa denies special treatment to Isabel dos Santos - RTP Notícias

The PM was forced to speak about the Luanda Leaks, an international investigation on the fortune of Isabel dos Santos, the daughter of Angola's former leader José Eduardo dos Santos, to deny any special treatment to Isabel dos Santos when she was buying shares in Portuguese banks and companies. Costa was asked by the media to react to BE's accusation that Costa' government, and himself, gave a special treatment to Isabel dos Santos in order to invest and buy shares in Portugal. Costa also said that relations between Portugal and Angola will not be hurt by this.

One thing Costa didn't answer, and he was asked about it, was the possible run for the 2021 Presidential elections of Ana Gomes, the former MEP that has been investigating Isabel dos Santos fortune for a long time, and other corruption scandals like the one involving hacker Rui Pinto and Benfica:


Quote
Ana Gomes. Does the fight against corruption make a presidential candidate? The hashtag # anagomes2021 gained new impetus with the release of Luanda Leaks documents. [Read more: http://bit.ly/38t9sn7]

Some PS members are pushing her to run and, on social media, she is gaining a lot of support. However, she herself has ruled out a possible run, but who knows at this point.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2020, 02:25:20 PM
Final results of the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election were published:  (https://www.psd.pt/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ATA.pdf)

53.2% Rui Rio (17,157 votes)
46.8% Luís Montenegro (15,086 votes)

  1.0% Blank/Invalid (339 votes)

80.2% Turnout


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2020, 05:43:31 PM
CDS leadership congress: Delegates meet this weekend to elect a new leader with fears the party could be on the verge of extinction.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-01-23-Congresso-do-CDS.-O-medo-do-partido-da-trotinete-a-luta-pela-relevancia.-e-a-ajuda-do-PSD)

CDS delegates will elect a new leader, this weekend, during the party's congress in Aveiro city. 5 candidates are in the race, with the 3 main contenders being João Almeida, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos and Filipe Lobo d'Ávila. However wins faces a daunting task of reviving the CDS, at a moment the party is polling at around 3% and behind CHEGA. Some pundits argue that CDS faces the real danger of becoming irrelevant and many CDS members, like former leader José Ribeiro e Castro, accuses Cristas of destroying the CDS by trying to transform CDS into a "new PSD", meaning, becoming a more moderate and catch-all party.

The new leader will be elected during Saturday evening, but the vote could last into the early hours of Sunday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2020, 08:18:14 AM
CDS leadership congress starts: Assunção Cristas exits the leadership by saying "I've failed".



Assunção Cristas, the still CDS leader, made her final speech, today, at the start of the CDS congress in Aveiro. She admitted her strategy failed and the voters perceived CDS as the party of "no, no, no" as they were alone in opposing the PS and that hurt them. She also said that her strategy was voted overwhelmingly in past congresses and that the she's not alone in the blame. After her speech, she left the congress and it's not expected that she will return during the weekend.

The new leader will be elected, possibly, tonight. There will first be a vote on candidate motions and after that result there will be another vote, this one to elect the leader. Coalition against candidates could be possible.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2020, 12:32:42 PM
Livre crisis: The party will meet on Monday to discuss Joacine Katar Moreira's position as MP.



A week after the tumultuous party congress, the party leadership will meet to discuss the future of Joacine Katar Moreira as a MP. The meeting will be held Monday night and a decision will be made in that same meeting. At the same time, Joacine Katar Moreira is already planning her future outside Livre: she is developing a website where she will update her work as a MP.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-01-24-Joacine-prepara-o-futuro.-Para-ja-vai-lancar-um-site) For now, that's her plans.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2020, 01:36:34 PM
CDS leadership congress: According to Expresso newspaper, the mood in the congress hall is very favourable towards Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka "Chicão", the right-wing leader of the CDS' youth wing. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-01-25-Em-direto.-Temperatura-do-congresso-aponta-para-Francisco-Rodrigues-dos-Santos) However many highprofile CDS members are giving their support to João Almeida, current MP and spokesperson of leader Assunção Cristas.

Vote to be held during the evening, early hours.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2020, 07:45:53 AM
CDS leadership congress: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos will be the new leader.  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/rodrigues-dos-santos-vai-apresentar-listas-que-espelhem-pluralismo-interno)


Quote
"CDS will be the right arm of the Portuguese". The moment when Chicão knew he won:

Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos will be the new leader of CDS after his motion to the congress was the most voted. 1,445 delegates voted and the results were the following:

46.4% Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos
38.9% João Almeida
14.5% Filipe Lobo d' Ávila

The vote was just for motions, not the leadership, but João Almeida conceded defeat and congratulated Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. This is a right-wing turn for CDS after many years of evolving into a moderate Christian democratic party. Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka "Chicão", is 31 years old and will become the youngest party leader in recent Portuguese history.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2020, 08:34:51 AM
First controversy in the CDS congress: New leadership team, led, and proposed, by Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, has no women.  (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/cds-nao-ha-mulheres-na-direcao-de-chicao?ref=hp_ultimas)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2020, 03:17:22 PM
Livre crisis: Meeting to decide Joacine Katar Moreira's future postponed for Thursday, due to "procedural issues".  (https://www.dn.pt/poder/livre-decide-quinta-feira-retirada-da-confianca-politica-a-joacine-11753481.html)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2020, 02:29:51 PM
Controversy between CHEGA and Livre: André Ventura asks for Joacine Katar Moreira to be "returned" to her country of birth after she proposed a bill that would provide for the return of heritage of museums to former colonies.  (https://observador.pt/2020/01/28/andre-ventura-propoe-que-joacine-seja-devolvida-ao-seu-pais-de-origem-livre-queixa-se-de-racismo/)


Quote
André Ventura "proposes" that Joacine "be returned to her country of origin". Livre complaints of racism:

André Ventura is under fire, today, after commenting on social media about a new bill proposed by Livre MP Joacine Katar Moreira. Ms Moreira bill proposes that former colonies heritages, currently displayed in Portuguese museums, should be returned to their country of origin. André Ventura, CHEGA leader, was quick to comment this on social media, saying that "MP Joacine should be returned to her country of origin". This comment is being criticized almost by everyone, and Livre is accusing Ventura of racism. However, Joacine Katar Moreira has yet to comment on Ventura statement.

This is the 2nd time, just this week, that Ventura and CHEGA are surrounded in controversy. During the weekend, on social media, a video of a CHEGA rally in Porto city showed at least one CHEGA supporter doing the Nazi salute during the national anthem. Ventura was forced to repudiate his supporter gesture and that he realized it on the rally and felt uncomfortable.  (https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/684385/andre-ventura-reage-a-saudacao-nazi-durante-comicio-do-chega-video)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: crals on January 28, 2020, 03:09:57 PM
My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.
Chega is jumping from controversy to controversy and IL fell under the radar, with CDS moving into their space a bit. So far I don't think they'll be making a big breakthrough.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 18 Jan 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2020, 05:41:57 PM
My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.
Chega is jumping from controversy to controversy and IL fell under the radar, with CDS moving into their space a bit. So far I don't think they'll be making a big breakthrough.

About IL, they are pretty irrelevant right now. CHEGA, I'm not that sure. They appeal to a big chunk of the conservative electorate that was always very muted and voted heavily on CDS, and some also on the PSD. Now, and because CDS is completely off the rails, they feel more comfortable in CHEGA, as the party is pro-life, anti-gay rights/marriage, and very populist against corruption and "socialism". The anti-corruption in CHEGA is very hypocritical, but everyone knows that.

Everthing points that there will be a battle on the rightwing of Portuguese politics between CHEGA and CDS. The new CDS leadership is very similar to CHEGA's rhetoric and there will be a fight for that electorate.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2020, 06:11:43 PM
War of words between PS and PSD because of the Social Democrats proposal to reduce to 6% VAT on electricity:


Quote
Centeno accuses PSD of making illegal proposal to lower VAT on electricity.

All of the parties represented in Parliament submitted, until yesterday, a record 1,300 changes to the 2020 budget. The PSD, the main opposition party, proposed a cut in VAT on electricity, from the current 23% to 6%, starting in July with a cost of 175 million euros, and with that being balanced with cuts in governmental management. The PS is criticizing this proposal saying it's illegal and would cost 700 million euros, although this figure has changed some times. The PSD responded saying that Mário Centeno should put all the card in table and prove the VAT cut is illegal and they accused Centeno and the PS of making stuff up and of acting like if he's the "owner of all this".

Nonetheless, the possibility of the VAT cut passing is real, as BE and CDU have similar proposals and both say they are willing to vote a reduction. The main doubt is will there be a common bill between PSD/BE/CDU.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2020, 06:03:59 PM
"Negative coalition" between PSD/BE/CDU to lower VAT on electricity looming:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-01-29-Bloco-vota-a-favor-de-todas-as-propostas-para-descer-IVA-da-luz.-PS-nao-pode-governar-com-chantagem-e-intransigencia)

The BE announced today that they will vote in favour of any bill that lowers VAT on electricity for families, accusing the PS of governing with "blackmail and intransigence". The PSD and CDU haven't announced how they will vote, but it's becoming more and more possible the likelyhood of PSD/BE/CDU coalition, which IL and CDS could be part of it to, against the PS minority government. Costa is attacking those who want to pursue this policy. In a speech to PS MPs, Costa said that some people are in a hurry to bring down the government and the VAT reduction is unfair, and bad for the environment.  (https://observador.pt/2020/01/29/costa-avisa-que-ha-quem-esteja-com-pressa-de-precipitar-o-fim-da-legislatura-e-estao-tambem-a-esquerda/)


Quote
António Costa criticizes PSD proposal to reduce VAT on electricity.

Rui Rio, PSD leader, responded to the PM, on twitter, accusing him of making up illegalities:


Quote
It seems to Mr PM that the alleged illegality depends on who proposes it and not on the measure itself. Yesterday, Minister Mário Centeno seemed to follow the same line of thought, only with much less discursive competence.

In other news, the CHEGA-Livre controversy continues. Ventura is being heavily criticized by the left and the right for his comments, and some parties, like PS and BE, will present votes in Parliament to condemn his remarks. Ventura himself, however, is doing some TV interviews and isn't retracting a single word of his statement:


Quote
Videos - "If we are so racist, what is she doing here?": André Ventura after suggesting the deportation of Joacine Katar Moreira


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2020, 03:44:15 AM
Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM: (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/sondagem-ps-cai-pelo-quarto-mes-consecutivo-chega-de-andre-ventura-apanha-pcp?ref=HP_DestaquesPrincipais)

Vote share %:

32.8% PS (-1.1)
25.8% PSD (+0.1)
11.9% BE (+1.2)
   6.2% CDU (-0.1)
   6.2% CHEGA (+0.5)
   6.0% PAN (-0.1)
   2.3% IL (-0.1)
   1.9% CDS (-2.0)
   1.7% Livre (+0.6)
   5.2% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2020, 02:22:24 PM
Another controversy on CDS: New deputy leader, Abel Matos Santos, praised Salazar, the former secret police PIDE and criticized Aristides Sousa Mendes on social media.  (https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/684590/pide-foi-uma-das-melhores-policias-do-mundo-?seccao=Portugal)


Quote
Abel Matos Santos. PIDE was "one of the best police forces in the world"

The new CDS leadership is involved in another controversy. This time, some media outlets found, on the Facebook page of CDS's new deputy leader Abel Matos Santos, several posts were he praised former dictator António de Oliveira Salazar saying he was one the best Portuguese ever, hailed PIDE as "one of the world's best police forces" as they only harass communists and those who attempted against the State, and defined Aristides de Sousa Mendes as a "Jewish moneylender". He accuses the media of decontextualize his words.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 30, 2020, 04:09:15 PM
Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM: (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/sondagem-ps-cai-pelo-quarto-mes-consecutivo-chega-de-andre-ventura-apanha-pcp?ref=HP_DestaquesPrincipais)

Vote share %:

32.8% PS (-1.1)
25.8% PSD (+0.1)
11.9% BE (+1.2)
   6.2% CDU (-0.1)
   6.2% CHEGA (+0.5)
   6.0% PAN (-0.1)
   2.3% IL (-0.1)
   1.9% CDS (-2.0)
   1.7% Livre (+0.6)
   5.2% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

Wow, big yikes for CDS. Is this the end of CDS? They would be dead as the dodo if they drop that low. May as well merge with Chega or PSD honestly.

On that note also surprised to see Chega that high. Any talks of putting a "cordon sanitaire" on them? Or would PSD reach a deal easily with them?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2020, 05:50:28 PM
Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM: (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/sondagem-ps-cai-pelo-quarto-mes-consecutivo-chega-de-andre-ventura-apanha-pcp?ref=HP_DestaquesPrincipais)

Vote share %:

32.8% PS (-1.1)
25.8% PSD (+0.1)
11.9% BE (+1.2)
   6.2% CDU (-0.1)
   6.2% CHEGA (+0.5)
   6.0% PAN (-0.1)
   2.3% IL (-0.1)
   1.9% CDS (-2.0)
   1.7% Livre (+0.6)
   5.2% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

Wow, big yikes for CDS. Is this the end of CDS? They would be dead as the dodo if they drop that low. May as well merge with Chega or PSD honestly.

On that note also surprised to see Chega that high. Any talks of putting a "cordon sanitaire" on them? Or would PSD reach a deal easily with them?

CDS is in fact going to through a rough time, However, the poll was conducted before the CDS elected its new leader, but, to be honest, I doubt that would make any difference as the party is still divided, many CDS moderate members are already saying bad things about the new leader, and there are already 2 controversies surrounding him, just in one week. If CDS would to merge, which is very unlikely, it would be with PSD, not CHEGA. CHEGA, right now, is literally enemy nº1 of CDS, as Ventura has stolen the hard line conservative electorate from CDS.

Right now, on the center-right, the PSD has a carefull approach towards CHEGA. Rio isn't antagonizing CHEGA and avoids being involved in their controversy. The left, however, attacks constantly Ventura and CHEGA.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2020, 02:12:08 PM
Livre crisis: Joacine Katar Moreira loses support of Livre but will remain as a non-registered MP:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-01-31-Livre-retira-a-confianca-politica-a-Joacine-Katar-Moreira.-Hoje-nao-e-um-dia-feliz-para-o-partido)


Quote
Livre Assembly removes confidence in Joacine Katar Moreira:

It was expected, but now it's confirmed. Joacine Katar Moreira will no longer represent Livre in Parliament, but will remain as a non-registered MP. Livre loses parliamentary representation, but will continue to receive public funding, as the party got more than the required 50,000 votes in October, but Joacine Katar Moreira MP funding will be cut from 117,000 euros to 57,000 euros per year.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2020, 03:44:51 PM
Intercampus poll for CM/CMTV on the 2021 Presidential election:  (https://observador.pt/2020/01/31/sondagem-dois-tercos-dos-portugueses-votariam-em-marcelo-rebelo-de-sousa-que-chegaria-oer/)

Vote share %:

68.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD)
  8.7% André Ventura (CHEGA)
  7.4% Marisa Matias (BE)
  3.2% Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU)
  1.6% Carlos César (PS)
10.6% Others/Undecided

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

Note: Carlos César, Jerónimo de Sousa, Marisa Matias and André Ventura are hypothetical candidates for the moment.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2020, 08:29:06 PM
Euthanasia approval likely: Parliament will vote on February 20th as PS, BE, CDU and PAN have legislation to pass it.  (https://observador.pt/2020/01/30/eutanasia-volta-ao-parlamento-a-20-de-fevereiro/)


Quote
Euthanasia: Parliament schedules debate for February 20

After the failed vote of 2018, Euthanasia could become legal in Portugal. Parliament has schedule a vote on the legalization of Euthanasia on 20 February, as PS, BE, CDU and PAN have legislation to pass it. These 4 parties/coalition have a total 143 seats, more than enough to pass a bill. On the right, PSD leader Rui Rio will give freedom of vote to PSD MPs. Rio himself is in favour of the legalization of Euthanasia. The Liberal Initiative could also present a bill to legalize and monitor euthanasia practices in Portugal. The only parties totally against are CDS and CHEGA, which only have 6 seats in Parliament. However, it's expected that a big portion of the PSD caucus will vote against any legalization of euthanasia.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Farmlands on January 31, 2020, 08:39:12 PM
Seems as if there might be quite a couple of social issues likely to pass through with this Parliament, compared to its predecessor, given its bigger left majority. I look forward to this bill passing, as are many PSD voters I know. I'm also personally hoping for marijuana legalisation to be the next issue discussed on the table.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 01, 2020, 08:15:22 AM
Seems as if there might be quite a couple of social issues likely to pass through with this Parliament, compared to its predecessor, given its bigger left majority. I look forward to this bill passing, as are many PSD voters I know. I'm also personally hoping for marijuana legalisation to be the next issue discussed on the table.

Yes, previous polling showed that legalization of Euthanasia was approved by a considerable part of the electorate, and even in the PSD, although their electorate is divided, the legalization of euthanasia has a lot of support, almost half. I myself as a PSD voter, approve the legalization of euthanasia. About marijuana, it could also pass in the future as the PSD, I believe in 2018, voted in congress a motion to legalize marijuana. We'll see.

A side note: The most curious vote will be the VAT on electricity in the next few days. PSD, BE, CDU, and maybe CDS, want to lower it from 23% to 6% and, according to the media, the PSD is analyzing the possibility of increasing VAT on hotels in order to please BE and for their cuts in government management be accepted by BE and CDU. I'm skeptical that anything will pass, but what would be Costa's reaction, if this goes ahead? He cannot force a political crisis as parliament can only be dissolved until May. Or could this accelerate Mario Centeno's exit from the government earlier than expected?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2020, 03:53:56 PM
2020 Budget final vote: VAT cut on electricity likely to fail as PSD budget cuts aren't supported by BE/CDU:  (https://observador.pt/especiais/geringonca-trava-uma-das-contrapartidas-do-psd-para-reducao-do-iva-na-eletricidade/)

Parliament is voting, bill by bill, the final draft of the 2020 budget. So far, some bills will be added to the budget against the wishes of the PS, but the main one, VAT cut on electricity, might fail. According to last weekend's press, the PSD was willing to increase some taxes, on the environment f.e., to please BE and CDU, but either they retracted or used the media just for spin, as the party says that they will not propose any tax hike. The PSD proposed cuts in government services were struck down by PS, BE and CDU, but the PSD says that they will fight for VAT cut until the last minute.

A number of bill passed during the afternoon:

- Extra increase of pension, of 10 euros per month, for those who earn at least 658 euros of pension;
- A CHEGA bill was passed, with the votes of PSD, BE, PAN and CDS to force the government to publish, every 3 months, a list of all institutions, public and private, funded by the government;
- A PSD bill giving university teachers the "full restoration" of their frozen career progressions, approved by PSD, BE, CDU and PAN;
- Extra financing of Lusa, the main news agency in Portugal, by 1,5 million euros, after the PS flip flopped their vote;

Other bills were struck down:

- Joacine Katar Moreira's bill of giving back all former colonies patrimony to their respective countries was struck down with the votes of PS, PSD, CDS, CH and IL;
- A PSD bill failed by just one vote as André Ventura, CHEGA MP, arrived late. The PSD bill was to stop funding cuts to Foundation of Science and Technology;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2020, 04:09:23 PM
Tancos air base scandal trial begins: Judge says he's perplexed by the different versions of the Tancos case.  (https://observador.pt/2020/02/03/azeredo-lopes-fui-muitas-vezes-o-muro-de-lamentacoes-de-luis-vieira/)


Quote
Tancos case. Azeredo Lopes heard of a manufactured call and did not report.

Quote
Former Defense Minister Azeredo Lopes assumes he was aware that the weapons of Tancos' storerooms were found following a manufactured call, SIC said.

Argued in the process, Azeredo Lopes was heard this Monday by the investigating judge, Carlos Alexandre.

The former defense minister said he did not inform the authorities about the staging because he had no duty to do so, SIC said.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2020, 02:49:35 PM
Some resignations today:

Abel Matos Santos, deputy leader of CDS, who was under fire for praising Salazar, PIDE and calling Aristides Sousa Mendes as a "Jew moneylender", resigned today after just 2 weeks in the job. (https://www.publico.pt/2020/02/04/politica/noticia/abel-matos-santos-demitese-vicepresidencia-cds-1902881)

Joacine Katar Moreira leaves Livre for good. (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/joacine-anuncia-desvinculacao-do-livre-de-repente-fez-se-algum-silencio-543640) She announced she handed over her party membership card and becomes a full Independent MP.

Also, there seems to be a small revolt in the PS caucus regarding VAT on bullfights. (https://eco.sapo.pt/2020/02/04/40-deputados-do-ps-estao-contra-subida-do-iva-das-touradas-mas-vao-respeitar-disciplina-de-voto/) The plan to increase VAT from 6% to 23% in bullfights events is creating a bad mood in the PS caucus, as 38 MPs are totally against the policy but are forced to vote in favour as the party is forcing vote discipline, meaning that any MP that violates the order could be punished. However, they say that this matter will not end here.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 05, 2020, 03:07:42 PM
2020 budget vote: Huge tensions regarding VAT on electricity and the vote against a circular line in Lisbon's subway:  (https://observador.pt/2020/02/05/arranca-o-terceiro-dia-de-debate-e-votacao-na-especialidade-do-orcamento-do-estado/)

It's still ongoing, but the day was full of tensions. VAT on electricity and the cancellation of a new circular line of Lisbon's subway created a huge moments of tensions between the PS and the opposition, but especially with the PSD. First the subway vote. The government was planning to change the map of the Lisbon subway to create a circular line and this line would force the construction of 3 new underground station in the center of Lisbon. The leftwing parties proposed a bill to cancell the line and it was approved by all the opposition parties, which infuriated the PS. The parliament is then advising the government to expand the subway to the northen suburbs of Lisbon. The PS is furious and accuses the parties, especially the PSD, of irresponsibility and of jeopardizing almost 100 million euros in EU funds and say they will send the bill to the Constitutional Court.


Quote
Politics - PSD's proposal to lower VAT on light should fail. PCP will abstain

Then, VAT on electricity. Until today, everyone though the bill was dead, but the PSD changed its bill and gained the support of BE, CDS, CHEGA and IL. The PS is, once again, furious with the PSD accusing them of being irresponsible and of making the governance of the country chaotic. But, a breaking development arised, as PCP will abstain in the PSD vote meaning that VAT reduction could still fail. We'll see.


Quote
Tancos: António Costa may have violated justice secrecy. Carlos Alexandre informs the DA office.

Costa is also in hot waters today, as he delivered his responses to the Tancos scandal judge... but posted them on twitter. (https://observador.pt/2020/02/05/carlos-alexandre-comunica-ao-mp-eventual-violacao-do-segredo-de-justica-por-antonio-costa/) The judge is very upset with the Prime Minister and says that Costa could have violated justice secrecy and will send this to the DA office for investigation.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 07, 2020, 06:27:15 PM
2020 budget: Tense final vote as PSD tried to pass their VAT cut on electricity, but PCP and CDS saved the government.


Quote
High voltage led electricity VAT decrease to suffer blackout in Budget vote.

The PSD last minute change seemed, according to the media, to put the government in panic mode. The PSD gained the support of BE, CHEGA and IL, and was supposedly from the CDS, but we'll get to that. PCP was the big doubt but in the last minute, they voted against the PSD demands of lowering the tax only in October 2020, and the PSD withdrew their bill. But, the big surprise was the CDS position as they abstained in the vote, killing the PSD tax cut and helping the government. Rio himself accused the CDS of now helping Costa and being an "ally of the PS". In fact, according to this weekend's media, Costa talked with the new CDS leader during the VAT Parliament debate (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-02-07-CDS-desbloqueou-IVA.-Governo-deu-lhe-o-IMI) and they the PS gave the CDS their approval for a CDS bill in exchange of a CDS abstention in the PSD VAT tax cut.

In the end, the 2020 budget was approved with the PS votes, while the leftwing parties, BE and CDU, abstained and PSD, CDS, CHEGA and IL voted against. This time the 3 PSD Madeira MPs voted against the budget.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 08, 2020, 06:53:04 AM
PSD national congress starts in Viana do Castelo city:



The PSD national congress started yesterday evening in Viana do Castelo city. Rui Rio opened the congress with a speech where he highlighted the biggest challenge the PSD faces right now: the 2021 midterm local elections. He said it's very important for the party to win a lot of cities and councillors to have then a good momentum to win the next general elections. He asked for loyalty and credibility from party members and defined the PSD as not rigthwing or leftwing, but a centrist party that represents all people. He also said he's willing to lead a rightwing front against the PS.

The congress is expected to be quite boring and without many surprises. Rio's opponents in the primaries, a few weeks ago, will speak today.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 08, 2020, 08:00:08 AM
New polling.

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper:  (https://www.dnoticias.pt/impressa/hemeroteca/diario-de-noticias/ps-continua-a-subir-chega-tambem-FX5770351)

Vote share %:

37.4% PS (+0.2)
26.7% PSD (+0.2)
   9.0% BE (-0.6)
   6.5% CDU (-0.1)
   3.3% CDS (-0.2)
   3.1% PAN (-0.5)
   2.5% CHEGA (+0.3)
   1.1% IL (-0.2)
   0.5% Livre (-0.1)
   9.9% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 2 and 6 February 2020. Polled 1,020 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

Intercampus poll for CM/CMTV on Rui Rio's leadership:  (https://eco.sapo.pt/2020/02/07/sondagem-rui-rio-ainda-nao-convenceu-portugueses/)

Q1: Do you think Rui Rio is the best candidate to face the PS in the next general election?

41.2% Yes
40.4% No
18.4% Undecided

Q2: Do you think Rio will last as PSD leader until the next general election?

61.6% Yes
21.0% No
17.4% Undecided

Q3: What do you think is best for the PSD right now?

44.6% Rio as PSD leader
33.1% Someone else as leader
  8.9% Pedro Passos Coelho as leader

Q4: About Rio's main challenger, Luís Montenegro, what do you think about his future?

44.1% Still has a shot in leading the PSD
35.7% His political career is over
20.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 08, 2020, 08:31:29 AM
JUST IN: André Ventura, CHEGA leader, announces his candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic in 2021.


Quote
MP criticizes Marcelo's silence on topics such as fighting corruption and says that the current President of the Republic is the "face" of the system.

Quote
The leader of Chega, André Ventura, announced this Saturday that he will run for President of the Republic in the January 2021 elections.

In a video released by TVI24, Ventura states that he will not suspend his MP mandate in the Assembly of the Republic and admits losing the presidential candidacy.

The deputy justifies the entry into the race to Belém with "the silence" of the current President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, in the face of the "big problems" that Portugal faces.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2020, 02:09:55 PM
Euthanasia debate: Conservative forces are pushing for a national referendum.  (https://expresso.pt/sociedade/2020-02-10-Igreja-Catolica-une-se-em-torno-de-referendo-a-eutanasia)

Many conservative groups and the Catholic Church are pushing for a referendum to be held on the matter of euthanasia. The probably victory for the Yes side in Parliament, is making many rightwing groups to defend a referendum as the only way to stop the legalization of euthanasia. The PSD will also discuss a possible support for a referendum, even though leader Rui Rio isn't very favourable of it, but has said he will accept the party's base choice.

The media is also reporting that the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is also very concerned about a possible Yes victory in Parliament and also wants a referendum.

IMO, if a referendum does happen, a similar situation like the 1998 abortion referendum could happen: a majority of the population in favour, but low interest and low turnout will favour the most motivated voter base, the No side. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Farmlands on February 10, 2020, 07:35:10 PM
Euthanasia debate: Conservative forces are pushing for a national referendum.  (https://expresso.pt/sociedade/2020-02-10-Igreja-Catolica-une-se-em-torno-de-referendo-a-eutanasia)

Many conservative groups and the Catholic Church are pushing for a referendum to be held on the matter of euthanasia. The probably victory for the Yes side in Parliament, is making many rightwing groups to defend a referendum as the only way to stop the legalization of euthanasia. The PSD will also discuss a possible support for a referendum, even though leader Rui Rio isn't very favourable of it, but has said he will accept the party's base choice.

The media is also reporting that the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is also very concerned about a possible Yes victory in Parliament and also wants a referendum.

IMO, if a referendum does happen, a similar situation like the 1998 abortion referendum could happen: a majority of the population in favour, but low interest and low turnout will favour the most motivated voter base, the No side. We'll see.

I think you could be underestimating how much the country has moved to the left, in terms of social issues, in the past 20 or so years. It's a similar situation to Ireland in my view, in that we also have a history richly influenced by Catholicism, but people no longer hold the conservative values that usually come with it, as seen in their referendums.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 11, 2020, 02:21:38 PM
Euthanasia debate: Conservative forces are pushing for a national referendum.  (https://expresso.pt/sociedade/2020-02-10-Igreja-Catolica-une-se-em-torno-de-referendo-a-eutanasia)

Many conservative groups and the Catholic Church are pushing for a referendum to be held on the matter of euthanasia. The probably victory for the Yes side in Parliament, is making many rightwing groups to defend a referendum as the only way to stop the legalization of euthanasia. The PSD will also discuss a possible support for a referendum, even though leader Rui Rio isn't very favourable of it, but has said he will accept the party's base choice.

The media is also reporting that the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is also very concerned about a possible Yes victory in Parliament and also wants a referendum.

IMO, if a referendum does happen, a similar situation like the 1998 abortion referendum could happen: a majority of the population in favour, but low interest and low turnout will favour the most motivated voter base, the No side. We'll see.

I think you could be underestimating how much the country has moved to the left, in terms of social issues, in the past 20 or so years. It's a similar situation to Ireland in my view, in that we also have a history richly influenced by Catholicism, but people no longer hold the conservative values that usually come with it, as seen in their referendums.

I agree with what you said, but my point is that a referendum will generate, very likely, quite low turnout and the decision will be made by the side that is most motivated. The majority of voters, according to polling, is in favour of euthanasia legalization, but the topic of euthanasia isn't very exciting for the vast majority of voters and will probably won't generate a lot of interest. Therefore, I believe a referendum is a waste of money and time as Parliament has all the legitimacy to vote and decide on this matter.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 13, 2020, 02:10:22 PM
Euthanasia poll done by Egas Moniz Institute:  (https://www.publico.pt/2020/02/13/sociedade/noticia/maioria-favoravel-eutanasia-velhos-crentes-sao-menos-concordam-1903982)

Q1: Are you in favour of the legalization of Euthanasia?

50.5% Yes
25.6% No
23.9% Undecided

Q2: What should be the best way to decide the legalization?

63.7% Referendum
23.0% Don't know
13.3% Parliament approval

Q3: What's your degree of info on Euthanasia?

56.0% Moderate
22.1% Low or none
21.6% High

Poll conducted between late December 2019 and early January 2020. Polled 1,695 voters.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 14, 2020, 02:07:00 PM
GfK/Metris poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:  (https://sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/2020/02/12/sondagem-fevereiro-2020-para-sic-expresso-parte-1/)

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 election results)

33% PS (-3)
28% PSD (nc)
   9% BE (-1)
   8% CDU (+2)
   6% CHEGA (+5)
   4% CDS (nc)
   3% PAN (nc)
   2% IL (+1)
   1% Livre (nc)
   1% Others (-3)
  5% Blank/Invalid (nc)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

8.1 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+0.5)
5.6 António Costa (+0.1)
4.6 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
4.4 Rui Rio (+0.7)
4.3 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
3.3 André Silva (-0.4)
3.2 André Ventura
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo
2.1 Joacine Katar Moreira

Government's job approval:

57% Approve (+7)
34% Disapprove (-3)
  9% Undecided (-4)

Poll conducted between 22 January and 5 February 2020. Polled 800 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: FrancoAgo on February 14, 2020, 07:41:37 PM
Some resignations today:

Abel Matos Santos, deputy leader of CDS, who was under fire for praising Salazar, PIDE and calling Aristides Sousa Mendes as a "Jew moneylender", resigned today after just 2 weeks in the job. (https://www.publico.pt/2020/02/04/politica/noticia/abel-matos-santos-demitese-vicepresidencia-cds-1902881)



around 2 years and half ago, you writed:

PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
 
Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.


So was not full true


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 14, 2020, 08:30:24 PM
Some resignations today:

Abel Matos Santos, deputy leader of CDS, who was under fire for praising Salazar, PIDE and calling Aristides Sousa Mendes as a "Jew moneylender", resigned today after just 2 weeks in the job. (https://www.publico.pt/2020/02/04/politica/noticia/abel-matos-santos-demitese-vicepresidencia-cds-1902881)



around 2 years and half ago, you writed:

PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
 
Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.


So was not full true
CDS has always had a small group of voters from the rightwing that, yes, had some good things to say about Salazar. However, that never came to the surface and damaged CDS image, as the party tried to sell, successfully for a considerable period, a moderate image. But these problems are a proof of the scale of the disaster CDS is in right now. For years, the party tried to be a "small catch all" party on the right, being appealing to moderate centrist voters, and at the same time trying to hold on to their conservative base. The 2019 elections blew everything apart. The arrival of CHEGA meant that many CDS voters now had a party that really defended what they believed in, and many ditched CDS. Now, CDS is deeply divided on their future. The new leadership, formed by many people from the rightwing part of the party, wants to confront CHEGA and win back their old electorate, even if that means using the same tools as CHEGA. But, the other faction believes that Ventura and CHEGA are populists and the CDS should never try to become a copy of CHEGA. Abel Matos Santos posts are quite old, from 2016 and 2017, just around the time I wrote that, and he was just a simple CDS member with ideas the national leadership would never accept or tolerate.

When I wrote that, I wouldn't have imagine how divided the rightwing in Portugal would be by 2020, and how damaged and at risk CDS was.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: crals on February 15, 2020, 06:33:03 AM
Some resignations today:

Abel Matos Santos, deputy leader of CDS, who was under fire for praising Salazar, PIDE and calling Aristides Sousa Mendes as a "Jew moneylender", resigned today after just 2 weeks in the job. (https://www.publico.pt/2020/02/04/politica/noticia/abel-matos-santos-demitese-vicepresidencia-cds-1902881)



around 2 years and half ago, you writed:

PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
 
Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.


So was not full true
It is true. AMS had to resign because of how outlandish those remarks were for CDS. I don't think even Chega would tolerate them.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 15, 2020, 08:41:22 AM
Some resignations today:

Abel Matos Santos, deputy leader of CDS, who was under fire for praising Salazar, PIDE and calling Aristides Sousa Mendes as a "Jew moneylender", resigned today after just 2 weeks in the job. (https://www.publico.pt/2020/02/04/politica/noticia/abel-matos-santos-demitese-vicepresidencia-cds-1902881)



around 2 years and half ago, you writed:

PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
 
Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.


So was not full true
It is true. AMS had to resign because of how outlandish those remarks were for CDS. I don't think even Chega would tolerate them.
Well, CHEGA is having some problems with the far-right groups within the party. Ventura is trying to stop the proliferation of some of these groups in CHEGA, but it's a difficult task.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 16, 2020, 07:34:37 AM
Local by-election in Mindelo parish, Vila do Conde, Porto district today:  (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1414950/seis-listas-vao-hoje-a-votos-para-a-junta-de-mindelo-em-vila-do-conde)

Around 3,300 voters are called, today, to elect a new parish assembly in Mindelo parish, Vila do Conde. The former PS minority cabinet fell after disagreements between them and the opposition, which made the management of the parish impossible. For this by-election, 6 lists will be on the ballot: PS, PSD, CDS, BE, CDU and an Independent. In terms of electoral history, Mindelo is a swing parish, where the PS and the PSD are always very close. In the 2017 local elections, there was a 3-way race between PS, Independent and PSD, while in the 2019 general elections, the PSD won with a comfortable margin:

2017 local election:

26.2% PS , 3 seats
25.5% Independent, 3
24.3% PSD/CDS, 2
14.9% Independent, 1
  2.6% BE
  1.9% CDU
  4.7% Blank/Invalid

63.1% Turnout

2019 general election:

37.3% PSD
29.1% PS
10.0% BE
  4.7% CDS
  3.7% PAN
  3.2% CDU
  2.2% IL
  1.4% Livre
  1.2% RIR
  1.2% CHEGA
  0.5% Alliance
  5.5% Others/Invalid

60.1% Turnout

This race is too early to call. It could be a PS hold, an Independent gain or a PSD gain. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 16, 2020, 05:28:34 PM
Mindelo parish by-election: Independent gain from PS.  (https://maissemanario.pt/claudio-matos-do-movimento-independente-vence-com-maioria-eleicoes-para-a-junta-de-mindelo/)

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 elections)

42.2% Independent (+16.7), 5 seats (+2)
23.2% PSD (-1.1), 2 (nc)
21.9% PS (-4.3), 2 (-1)
   6.7% BE (+4.1), 0 (nc)
   4.2% CDS*, 0
   1.9% CDU (nc), 0 (nc)
   3.9% Blank/Invalid (-0.7)

47.3% Turnout (-15.9)

*CDS ran in a coalition with the PSD in 2017.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 17, 2020, 02:54:27 PM
The "Marega case" has entered in full on the political scene, as all political leaders have reacted to the case where FCPorto player, Moussa Marega, was subject to racist slurs during a match in Guimarães.

All political leaders are reacting to the case that is making headlines in Portugal, right now. The PM, the leader of the opposition and all other party leaders have reacted to this case. The PM António Costa and PSD leader Rui Rio reacted on twitter:


Quote
Any and all acts of racism are criminal and intolerable. No human being should be subjected to this humiliation. No one can remain indifferent. I condemn any and all acts of racism, under any circumstances.

Total solidarity with #Marega, who in the field proved to be not only a great player, but also a great citizen.
#no to racism


Quote
What happened yesterday in the Guimarães-Porto game has obvious racist outlines that clash with our values; but it highlights, above all, primary behaviors, responsible for an intolerable increase in violence in sport that a civilized society cannot tolerate.

The only political leader not condemning the case is CHEGA leader André Ventura. After he downplayed the case and called many people "hypocrites", he's criticizing António Costa' reaction to this case:  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/andre-ventura-critica-solidariedade-de-antonio-costa-com-marega-era-a-esta-hipocrisia-que-me-referia)
Quote
It was this hypocrisy that I was referring to.
The Prime Minister immediately sympathizes with the football player, but we have never seen him do this in relation to police officers, teachers or doctors who are beaten, insulted and humiliated every day.
#sindrome_Joacine

The foreign affairs minister is also worried about this case, as he says it will damage Portugal's image abroad.  (https://observador.pt/2020/02/17/mne-caso-de-racismo-no-futebol-prejudica-imagem-internacional-de-portugal-e-poe-em-causa-dignidade-humana/)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 18, 2020, 07:03:14 PM
Venezuela-Portugal crisis: President and the Government calls "unacceptable" Venezuela action to forbid TAP air flights to that country.


Quote
Portugal and Venezuela are in the most serious diplomatic crisis ever

The decision of the Venezuela government of forbidding TAP Portugal air flights to Venezuela is being received with anger by the government and the President of the Republic. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says that the actions of Venezuela are "unacceptable" and they need to be repudiated, adding that this is the same view as the government. The foreign minister has also repudiate the decision and said that TAP didn't do anything wrong and called, like the President, unacceptable the decision.

The Venezuelan government accuses TAP of helping to transport explosives to the country and demands Portugal to accept Nicolás Maduro as the rightfull President of Venezuela. Around 500,000 Venezuelan citizens have Portuguese ancestry.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 19, 2020, 06:24:01 PM
Euthanasia debate: Divisions on the PSD as the legalization is set to be approved tomorrow:


Quote
Assisted death: Euthanasia has almost certain approval and causes controversy in the PSD

The euthanasia vote is to be held tomorrow and the approval is almost a certainty. The PS will vote overwhelmingly in favour, although some MPs, 11 at least, will abstain or vote against. In the PSD, there is divisions. The party is divided on the topic itself and on the question of the referendum. Although the majority of the caucus will vote against, PSD leader, Rui Rio will vote in favour. Plus, some PSD MPs are forging a petition to ask for a referendum, something Rui doesn't want and there are already some PSD MPs that have retracted their support for the petition.

The Catholic Church, medical associations and other movements are asking for a nationwide referendum on Euthanasia, and a petition, promoted by the church, has already 40,000 signatures, and the leaders of the petition believe that by the end of the month, they will have enough signatures, 60,000 minimum, to force a debate on a referendum in Parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Walmart_shopper on February 20, 2020, 07:56:11 AM
Euthanasia debate: Divisions on the PSD as the legalization is set to be approved tomorrow:


Quote
Assisted death: Euthanasia has almost certain approval and causes controversy in the PSD

The euthanasia vote is to be held tomorrow and the approval is almost a certainty. The PS will vote overwhelmingly in favour, although some MPs, 11 at least, will abstain or vote against. In the PSD, there is divisions. The party is divided on the topic itself and on the question of the referendum. Although the majority of the caucus will vote against, PSD leader, Rui Rio will vote in favour. Plus, some PSD MPs are forging a petition to ask for a referendum, something Rui doesn't want and there are already some PSD MPs that have retracted their support for the petition.

The Catholic Church, medical associations and other movements are asking for a nationwide referendum on Euthanasia, and a petition, promoted by the church, has already 40,000 signatures, and the leaders of the petition believe that by the end of the month, they will have enough signatures, 60,000 minimum, to force a debate on a referendum in Parliament.

The petitioners can force a debate, but will there be enough votes to force euthanasia to a referendum?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 20, 2020, 03:15:02 PM
The petitioners can force a debate, but will there be enough votes to force euthanasia to a referendum?

There's almost zero chances of a referendum being held, because the PS is against it and if you add PS+BE, you have 127 votes, well above the 116 necessary for a referendum. PAN is also against a referendum. So, yeah, they can force a debate but the outcome is already written in the walls.

Now, the vote in Parliament was held this afternoon and all 5 bills to legalize euthanasia were approved:


Quote
Euthanasia approved in Parliament

PS bill: 127 in favour; 86 against; 10 abstentions

BE bill: 124 in favour; 85 against; 14 abstentions

PAN bill: 121 in favour; 86 against; 16 abstentions

PEV bill: 114 in favour; 86 against; 23 abstentions

IL bill: 114 in favour; 85 against; 24 abstentions

The 5 bills will now go to the Parliamentary committee of constitutional affairs to discuss and draft a final bill to be later approved by Parliament and sent to the President of the Republic. What Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will do is also a big question: Will he veto the bill and sent to the Constitutional Court? Some pundits believe Marcelo will veto the bill. We'll see.

Also during today, two new polls were unveiled that show the level of support of Euthanasia in the electorate:

Multidados poll:  (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/sondagem-80-dos-inquiridos-a-favor-de-referendo-sobre-eutanasia-549969)

Q1: Are in favour of the legalization of euthanasia?

73.4% Yes
26.6% No

Q2: Do you believe a referendum on this matter should be held?

80.8% Yes
19.2% No

ICS poll: (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-02-20-43-a-favor-28-contra-mas-muitos-indecisos.-Estudo-pos-eleitoral-mostra-aprovacao-da-eutanasia) (Poll conducted in the post-2019 election survey)

Q: Are in favour of the legalization of euthanasia?

43% Yes
28% No
29% Undecided


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 21, 2020, 02:14:33 PM
Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/videos/detalhe/ps-e-psd-mantem-queda-e-bloco-e-chega-sobem-nas-intencoes-de-voto?ref=Pesquisa_Destaques)

Vote share %:

31.1% PS (-1.7)
23.8% PSD (-2.0)
13.2% BE (+1.3)
  6.9% CHEGA (+0.7)
  6.3% CDU (+0.1)
  5.4% PAN (-0.6)
  3.5% CDS (+1.6)
  2.9% IL (+0.6)
  0.8% Livre (-0.9)
  0.8% Others(-0.5)
  5.2% Blank/Invalid (+1.3)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 February 2020. Polled 614 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 22, 2020, 01:21:58 PM
Impasse in the selection of judges for the Constitutional Court could hurt the chances of Euthanasia passing in the court.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-02-22-Eutanasia.-Impasse-na-escolha-de-juizes-torna-Constitucional-mais-imprevisivel)


Quote
Constitutional Court: Tensions have never been greater between PS and BE

The election of two new judges for the Constitutional Court has turned into a big mess. The PS nominated two candidates: Vitalino Canas, former PS spokesperson during José Sócrates leadership, and Clemente Lima, former judge in the Superior Court of Justice. But, these nominations are being very badly received, particularly Vitalino Canas nomination. BE is furious because the PS didn't talk to them about possible candidates, and the PSD will not officially support neither of the candidates, meaning that the election of these two PS nominees could be in jeopardy.

This impasse in the Constitutional Court could also hurt the chances of Euthanasia passing in the Court, if it's sent to the Court. The current composition is 4 center-left judges, 6 center-right judges and 1 centrist, which makes the outcome of the Euthanasia bill widely in doubt.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 23, 2020, 07:01:32 AM
GfK/Metris poll on the Health Services in Portugal for Expresso/SIC TV:  (https://sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/2020/02/20/sondagem-fevereiro-2020-para-sic-expresso-parte-2/)

Q1: What's the biggest issue facing the country right now?

34% Healthcare (+7)
16% Jobs/Wages (nc)
16% Corruption (+3)
  9% The Economy (-6)
  6% Education (+1)
19% Other issues (-5)

Q2: How do you rate the overall quality of healthcare services in Portugal? (in a scale between 0 and 10)

Overall: 6.1

Men: 6.1
Women: 6.1

North: 6.5
Center: 6.0
Lisbon: 6.2
Alentejo: 6.1
Algarve: 3.5

Q3: Regardless of its use, if you had a medical emergency, which service would you prefer?

71% Public hospital
16% Private hospital
11% Health center
  2% Private practice

Q4: Rate your confidence in the following institutions and agents (in a scale between 0 and 10)

7.3 Nurses
7.2 Doctors
6.9 Private hospitals
6.6 Health centers
6.5 Public hospitals

Q5: To solve the issue of waiting lists in the NHS, what should be the solution?

76% The State needs to invest more on the NHS
18% The State should partner more with the private sector
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 January and 5 February 2020. Polled 800 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 24, 2020, 03:38:17 AM
Intercampus poll on the 2021 Presidential election for CMTV/CM newspaper:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/ana-gomes-faz-baixar-votacao-em-marcelo-rebelo-de-sousa-nas-presidenciais-de-2021?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias1)

Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

58.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-10.0)
   9.3% André Ventura (+0.6)
  8.8% Ana Gomes (new)
   4.6% Marisa Matias (-2.7)
   2.6% Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.6)
  2.4% Cristina Ferreira (new)
   1.3% Carlos César (-0.3)
12.5% Others/Undecided (+1.9)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 February 2020. Polled 614 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Note: Carlos César, Jerónimo de Sousa, Marisa Matias, Ana Gomes and Cristina Ferreira are hypothetical candidates for the moment.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 25, 2020, 03:51:51 PM
PS nominee for the Constitutional Court, Vitalino Canas, will likely be rejected as PSD will vote against him.


Quote
PSD will reject Vitalino Canas in the Constitutional Court.

The PS nominee for the Constitutional Court, Vitalino Canas, will be, very likely, rejected by Parliament. The PSD is very uncomfortable with the name and Rio has decided to not support the name proposed by the PS. The vote for Constitutional judges needs to have a 2/3 majority, but Vitalino Canas only has the votes of the PS, and even here many MPs are quite unhappy with his nomination. BE, PCP and IL have also announced they will vote against him. The other PS nominee is in doubt, however.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 26, 2020, 06:06:19 PM
New Lisbon airport: Change of a current law that allows city halls to veto projects, is rejected by the PSD:

Quote
Montijo Airport. PSD reaffirms: "We're not available to change the law"

Quote
Pedro Nuno Santos says that without a majority in Parliament, there will no airport in Montijo. "There's no drama"

The new Lisbon airport saga continues. This time, the government wants to change a law that allows city halls to veto projects. The proposed new Lisbon airport, is approved by the mayor of Montijo (PS) but rejected by the mayors of Seixal and Moita, both from PCP. This law is delaying the project, and the government only realized it now. The government tried to woo the PSD into their side, but Rui Rio has rejected the proposed change by the government. Even in the PS the idea isn't very popular, as deputy leader, Ana Catarina Mendes, is saying that laws should not be changed in the middle of the process. The government, by the voice of minister Pedro Nuno Santos, is now downplaying the case, after last week demanding responsibility from the PSD.

This is another episode in the long case of the new Lisbon airport. The proposed airport in Montijo, has strong opposition from engineers, environmentalists and politicians as the two main criticisms of the locations is that in 30 years it could be flooded by the Tagus river, and it's close to one of Portugal's most important bird reserve.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 27, 2020, 03:05:00 PM
Controversial CHEGA bill that proposes chemical castration for sexual offenders will not be voted in Parliament by decision of Speaker Ferro Rodrigues:  (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/ferro-rodrigues-decide-que-projeto-lei-do-chega-sobre-castracao-quimica-nao-vai-debatido-em-plenario-552143)


Quote
Ferro Rodrigues decides that Chega's bill on chemical castration will not be discussed in plenary.

Speaker Ferro Rodrigues has decided to cancel the vote on a bill, proposed by CHEGA, that would allow chemical castration for sexual offenders. The Speaker made this decision after the Parliamentary Committee of Constitutional Affairs ruled that the bill was unconstitutional. But this decision isn't unanimous. BE, CDS and, to some extent, the PSD didn't saw with good eyes this decision by Ferro Rodrigues. PS, PCP and Joacine Katar Moreira voted in favour of the cancellation of the vote.

BE is against the cancellation of the vote as they say the committee doesn't rule on the Constitutionality of bills, and they add that skinping this vote and debate, some details of the policy will not be discussed and they should. The PSD, although they abstained in the vote, are also in line with BE on the criticism the the Committee doesn't have powers and that this could open the door to more "vetoes" on votes.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: crals on February 28, 2020, 01:13:23 PM
Ferro Rodrigues is only helping Chega with these antics.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 28, 2020, 02:47:17 PM
Ferro Rodrigues is only helping Chega with these antics.

It's a bad decision as it creates a precedent for future bad decisions. If some party, in the future, proposes a bill that there's doubt of its constitutionality and the Speaker in charge is from the opposite political colour, the Speaker can argue that it cannot be voted, as there is a precedent. The CHEGA bill is a mess, but it should be discussed and all of its details should have been exposed in the debate.

Also, today, the PS nominees for the Constitutional Court were rejected by Parliament, and even some PS MPs voted against:


Quote
Everything rejected. Parliament rejects Vitalino Canas for the TC and Correia de Campos for the CES:

The vote for the PS nominees for the Constitutional Court resulted in the rejection of all the nominees, as expected. The PS nominees had just 93 votes in favour and 126 blank/invalid. The nominees needed 2/3 of the MPs to be elected. The vote was by secret ballot, but the outcome as expected. However, looking at the number it seems that even some PS MPs voted against the nominees proposed by their party.

The PS is quite upset with the result, accusing Parliament of blocking the normal function of institutions and democracy and they thought that there was a minimal consensus in the names. The PS, however, hasn't confirmed if they will propose the same names again.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 28, 2020, 03:06:34 PM
Aximage poll for JE newspaper:  (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/ps-mantem-avanco-sobre-psd-chega-sobe-a-quinto-partido-e-cds-em-queda-552540)

Vote share %:

35.1% PS
26.1% PSD
   7.7% BE
   5.4% CDU
   4.3% CHEGA
   4.1% PAN
   2.5% IL
   2.1% CDS
   0.7% Livre
   6.7% Others/Invalid
  5.3% Undecided

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

10.4 António Costa (-0.4)
  9.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.9)
  9.4 Catarina Martins (-1.0)
  9.3 Rui Rio (+0.1)
  8.1 André Ventura (-1.3)
  7.9 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.3)
  7.5 André Silva (-2.0)
  3.5 Joacine Katar Moreira (-1.5)

Poll conducted between 14 and 18 February 2020.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 29, 2020, 12:39:59 PM
Interesting article done by pollster Pedro Magalhães, which leads the team behind the Expresso/SIC polls, on the CHEGA electorate: in the latest SIC/Expresso poll:  (https://expresso.pt/opiniao/2020-02-15-Quem-quer-votar-no-Chega-)

Quote
Who wants to vote for CHEGA?

Who votes for the radical right? In the rest of Europe, a kind of "robot portrait" of its voters was formed over time. CHEGAS's is not the same.

Who votes for the radical right? In the rest of Europe, where these parties have tripled their vote in the last two decades and started to be studied, a kind of "robot portrait" of their voters has been formed over time: men, young people, with low education, workers, unemployed or small entrepreneurs or traders. Men, because women reject the radical right's anti-feminism. Young people because they are less connected to established parties. Low-educated workers or unemployed, because they are more vulnerable and feeling a threat in the competition of immigrants in the labor market. Small landowners, because they are conservative, concerned with "law and order" and they are also potential victims of the current economic transformation.

The question now arises in Portugal, after the election of André Ventura and the sudden rise of CHEGA in the most recent polls, including this week's ICS / ISCTE poll. But the answer, even with all the care that must be taken by a small sample, defies the "robot portrait". Half of the voters who intend to vote for CHEGA are women. Between 18 and 24 years of age, the party barely exists, and it is only between 25 and 44 years old that we find a disproportionate support. One in five of CHEGA's current voters have a college degree and more than a third have completed secondary education, above the average education of Portuguese adults. Moreover, it's among these, and not among the less educated, that André Ventura's performance is best (or least poorly) evaluated.

CHEGA is also not particularly successful with small business owners and traders, a segment where the PSD continues to be the best positioned. And while more than a third of those who intend to vote for CDU or PS are (or were) workers, less than 10% of CHEGA voters have this characteristic. The occupational segment in which CHEGA stands out the most is that of office employees: non-manual workers with some qualifications, but without significant power over people or resources in their workplaces. And it is easier to find them in big cities than in the rural world, and in Greater Lisbon than elsewhere.

(...)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 01, 2020, 06:44:55 AM
2021 Presidential elections: André Ventura, CHEGA leader, officially launches his campaign for the presidency in a rally in Portalegre city:


Quote
André Ventura presents his candidacy for Belém and defends the creation of the "fourth Republic"

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, officially launched his campaign for the January 2021 presidential elections in a rally of around 500 supporters in Portalegre city, capital of the district that gave the highest share of the vote for CHEGA in the 2019 elections, 2.7%. In his speech, he lashed out against Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and António Costa, accusing Marcelo of accepting corruption and that he closes his eyes in many issues. He also criticized the current Constitution saying "it doesn't serve the country anymore", adding that a new one is needed and the establishment of a "fourth republic".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 04, 2020, 03:21:53 PM
PM Q&A debate in Parliament: Coronavirus and the new Lisbon airport were the main topics.


Quote
The emergence (of the virus), the landing (in Montijo) and other flights of the biweekly debate:

PM Costa went to Parliament today to address the coronavirus scare and didn't received much attacks, unless in the lack of resources of the NHS to fight the virus. Here, all opposition parties from left to right warned the the government cuts in the NHS could hurt the fight against the virus. PSD leader, Rui Rio, even joked that Costa is very "optimistic" about the virus. Costa also announced that the GDP forecast for 2020 could be lowered due to the virus. But the other main topic, the new Lisbon airport, continue to show how tense the mood between PS and PSD is becoming. After the PSD refused to help the PS in order to change a law that is blocking the airport, PS is accusing the PSD of contradiction as it was a PSD/CDS government that choose Montijo as the location. The PSD retaliated accusing the PS of being arrogant and of not talking with the mayors of the cities affected. In fact, before the debate, Costa held an emergency meeting with the mayors of the cities affected by the airport, but the message from the mayors was "it's too late now".

Costa also denied the accusation that, while he was a minister during Sócrates cabinets, he called TVI to get a journalist fired. The question was asked by CHEGA leader André Ventura, as Costa answered that it was an utter lie. Costa also announced that a new Bank of Portugal governor will be appointed by summer time.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 05, 2020, 02:53:56 PM
PSD refuses to support the PS on possible public-private partnerships in housing:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-03-05-PSD-chumba-novo-regime-das-PPP--e-poe-em-causa-plano-de-Medina-para-a-habitacao-)

A proposed PS bill to change the regime public-private partnerships (PPP) bill will, most likely, be stroke down by the PSD. PSD leader, Rui Rio, made the decision today and the media was informed of it. The PS bill proposes that new PPP's should not be decided by the Finance Minister, but the cabinet and opens the door to private-public partnerships in the housing sector, forbidden until now. All parties are opposing the PS bill, from left to right. The parties argue that these changes will damage transparency.

According to the media, the possible failure of this bill could hurt the mayors of the 2 main cities of the country, Lisbon and Porto, who were counting on this bill to pass housing projects.

All parties are proposing, also, their own changes to the public-private partnerships regime but it's unclear if there will be left-right coalition against the PS and the government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 06, 2020, 02:06:18 PM
Interesting data on the White/Black electorate in Portugal, from the 2019 post-election survey:  (http://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/eleitores-brancos-e-negros-muitas-semelhancas-algumas-diferencas/)

Share of the electorate %:

95% White
  3% Black
  0% Gypsy
  2% Didn't revealed

Left/Right position: (in a scale between 0 and 10, being 0 leftwing and 10 rightwing)

4.7 White
4.8 Black

2019 vote by political bloc %:

White electorate:

32% Left (PS, BE, CDU, PAN, Livre)
20% Right (PSD, CDS, CHEGA, IL, Alliance)
   2% Others/Invalid
46% Abstention

Black electorate:

33% Left (PS, BE, CDU, PAN, Livre)
   1% Right (PSD, CDS, CHEGA, IL, Alliance)
   4% Others/Invalid
62% Abstention

Poll conducted after the 2019 election in the 2019 post election survey, led by pollsters Marina Costa Lobo and Pedro Magalhães.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 07, 2020, 07:01:29 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:  (https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/688318/sondagem-maioria-quer-referendo-a-eutanasia)

Vote share %:

37.3% PS (-0.1)
27.4% PSD (+0.7)
   8.8% BE (-0.2)
   6.3% CDU (-0.2)
   3.3% CHEGA (+0.8 )
   2.9% CDS (-0.4)
   2.8% PAN (-0.3)
   1.1% IL (nc)
10.1% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Q1: Do you agree with the legalization of Euthanasia?

48% Yes
21% No
31% Undecided

Q2: Do you think the Euthanasia issue should be decided by a referendum?

41% Yes
37% No
22% Undecided

Q3: What should the President do with the Euthanasia bill?

37% Sent it to the Constitutional Court
25% Sign it
20% Veto it
18% Undecided

Poll conducted between 1 and 5 March 2020. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.09%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 07, 2020, 08:11:17 AM
Problems in the government: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warns that the current legislature cannot be "walking dead" as Costa is pressured to talk with the left.


Quote
With "blockades" in Parliament and without scope for agreements with the PSD, Costa is under pressure for new understandings with the left:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, started this discussion when in a speech, during a conference celebrating the 30th anniversary of Público newspaper, he said that the current legislature cannot have a taste of ending of a cycle and advised the government to find agreements. Early elections will not be approved by him, he also said. This speech comes after some months of tensions between the PS and opposition parties in Parliament. The PS refused, after the 2019 elections, any agreements with the left and bet on occasional agreements between left and right. But, the PSD isn't helping the government in almost anything and has aligned with the left, several times until now, to embarrass the government. This leaves the PS in a very weak and uncomfortable position, as a political crisis that could led to a snap election, wouldn't be approved by the President.

Costa is now being pressured to forge some kind of agreements with the left, with some ministers and PS members asking for bridges between the left parties. But, is it too late? The current tensions between PS and BE make a possible agreement quite difficult. And PCP? Well, the Communists seem to be the preferred partner for Costa, but that could hurt the party's standing in the polls.

Also, today, the media is confirming the most poorly kept secret in recent Portuguese politics:


Quote
Mário Centeno leaves the Government at the beginning of the summer.

Mário Centeno, current Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman, is expected to leave the government in the summer, when his term in the Eurogroup ends. He's expected to be appointed as the new Governor of the Bank of Portugal, succeeding Carlos Costa, in office since 2010. But, this appointment is being criticized as some accuse that this appointment creates several cases of conflicts of interest. The PSD has a vague position on this appointment, but history doesn't favour them as in the 90's, during Cavaco Silva governments, there was a case of a finance minister exiting the government to go directly to the post of governor of the bank of Portugal. The government, however, doesn't need the support of the opposition to appoint a new governor.

This exit, will force Costa to reshuffle the government, but how this Centeno exit could affect the government and the PS is still to be seen.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 08, 2020, 01:35:29 PM
War of words, this weekend, between Costa and Rio:


Quote
Video: António Costa: "Rui Rio has no thought whatsoever about any fundamental issue of Portuguese society"

Público newspaper published an interview with PM António Costa, where he had very harsh words for PSD leader Rui Rio. Costa accused Rio of not having any profund thought about any matter affecting Portuguese society and added that Rio's latest decisions are a "guerrilla strategy".

Rio responded to Costa's attacks saying he wouldn't respond in order to not "escalate the violent verbal attacks that can degrade democratic dialogue".


Quote
Contrary to what I've been asked, I don't think I should answer. Entering this free escalation of verbal violence is degrading the democratic dialogue and hampering the country's governance. Above our impulses must be the national interest. It's what I think!


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 13, 2020, 06:48:45 AM
The PM met, yesterday, with all party leaders to discuss the Coronovirus crisis:  (https://observador.pt/2020/03/12/rio-apoia-costa-mas-incentiva-mais-medidas-pouco-simpaticas/)


Quote
Costa: "This is a fight for our survival"

PM António Costa met with all party leaders to discuss the measures to prevent the coronovirus. Rui Rio, PSD leader, advised the government to take more harsh measures to prevent the spread of the virus, like declaring the state of emergency and more measures to limit or ban the circulation of people. BE advised the government for mote restrictive measures and advised the PM to ask for help in the private health sector. CDS and CDU also support more restrictive measures, while André Ventura, CHEGA leader, thinks the measures proposed by the government are weak, will not work and advised the PM to close the borders.

After the meetings with all party leaders, Costa announced to the country the measures to prevent the spread of the virus.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 13, 2020, 11:53:57 AM
In the local level, many city halls are already going further than the government and are closing all public buildings, parks and beaches, canceling events and urging inhabitants to stay home and go out only for necessary reasons.

In Porto city, Mayor Rui Moreira is talking to private labs to create a public testing system (https://www.publico.pt/2020/03/13/local/noticia/camara-porto-parar-pondera-importar-ventiladores-china-1907629), but it will only go ahead if the Health authorities approve it, as the goal is to stop people from going to public hospitals. The mayor is also in talks with Macau and Shenzhen in order to import many ventilators, adding that St. John Hospital is also involved in the talks.

Parliament has also decided not to close its doors, but parliamentary activity will be reduced to a minimum. (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/partidos-sugerem-que-atividade-do-parlamento-se-reduza-ao-estritamente-necessario-11925489.html) This decision will be reevaluated next Wednesday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 14, 2020, 01:26:50 PM
Coronavirus crisis: Regional governments of Madeira and Azores will force quarantine for anyone who enters the islands by midnight today:  (https://zap.aeiou.pt/madeira-isenta-pagamento-agua-luz-313829)

There are still no confirmed cases in Madeira and Azores islands, but the regional governments are imposing measures to prevent cases. The Madeira and Azores governments have decided to put in quarantine anyone who enters in the islands. Since mid this week, staff checking temperatures in Madeira airport were put into place. The Madeira government has also suppressed many flights from Lisbon and other hot spots of the virus and will exempt taxes on water and electricity for the next two weeks.

The President of Madeira government, Miguel Albuquerque (PSD), said he took these harsh measures as the central government in Lisbon wasn't responding to his pleas.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 15, 2020, 07:01:30 PM
Coronavirus crisis: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will meet with the Council of State, next Wednesday, to decide the state of emergency.

However, PSD leader, Rui Rio, went to twitter to advise the call of the state of emergency and the closure of all borders with Spain:

Quote
The Government continues to have our full support, and I even incentive, to escalate measures to combat Covid-19, including the declaration of a state of emergency; the closing of the borders with Spain seems to me to be very urgent. Prevention is better than cure.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 17, 2020, 07:07:22 AM
Coronavirus crisis: Prime Minister and President of the Republic disagree on the declaration of State of Emergency.  (https://www.publico.pt/2020/03/17/politica/noticia/costa-prefere-estado-emergencia-tarde-1907984)


Quote
António Costa and Marcelo disagree on declaration of state of emergency. Marcelo wanted to have already declared a state of emergency, but the Prime Minister preferred to use this resource later, without calling into question the suspension of rights, freedoms and guarantees.

Quote
The President of the Republic and the Prime Minister have been in clear disagreement regarding the use of the declaration of a state of emergency, Público newspaper knows. The President of the Republic has defended the idea that this step should be taken since, at least, last Thursday, but the Prime Minister has resisted.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 18, 2020, 01:26:29 PM
State of Emergency approved: President, PM and Parliament all approve it.


Quote
Covid-19: Parliament approves State of Emergency in plenary.

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has approved the State of Emergency after meeting with the Council of State. Although some on the left don't see it with good eyes, even Costa himself, the PM also approved as did Parliament with the votes of PS, PSD, CDS, BE, PAN and CHEGA. PCP, IL and Joacine Katar Moreira abstained.

The finance minister, Mário Centeno, also announced a 9,2 billion euros package for the economy, with 3 billion going to businesses.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 19, 2020, 05:55:11 PM
Marktest poll on the State of Emergency:  (https://executivedigest.sapo.pt/coronavirus-90-dos-portugueses-concordam-com-declaracao-do-estado-de-emergencia/)

Q1: Do you agree with the declaration of a State of Emergency made by the President?

90.0% Yes
   6.3% No
  3.7% Undecided

Q2: Timing of the decision?

52.1% It should have been sooner
42.0% It was at the right time
  5.9% It should had been postponed for later

Q3: Impact of the State of Emergency in your workplace?

32.9% No impact - Will continue to work in my normal workplace
29.6% No impact - Had already started telework
14.4% Big impact - Will stay home and not work
12.1% Big impact - Will start telework
11.0% None of the above

Q4: How long will Portugal face the Coronavirus crisis and its limitations?

34.3% 1 to 2 months
30.8% 2 to 3 months
25.6% More than 3 months
  5.3% 2 to 4 weeks
  0.6% 2 weeks
  3.4% Undecided

Q5: What do you fear more about this crisis?

35.3% The mortality rate
20.9% The colapse of the Portuguese economy
19.5% The colapse of the NHS
10.1% The colapse of the Worldwide economy
  9.1% Shortage of food
  3.6% Unemployment
  1.4% Being closed at home

Poll conducted between 18 and 19 March 2020. Polled 501 voters.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 23, 2020, 03:34:32 PM
Coronavirus crisis and fallout: Mário Centeno says he will not leave the government until the crisis is over.


Quote
Politics - Mário Centeno stays in the Government as long as crisis lasts

It was no secret, until a few weeks ago, that Mário Centeno, current Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman, was on his way out of the government and possible going for the post of Governor of the Bank of Portugal. But the Coronavirus crisis and the huge impact it could have in the Portuguese economy may have delayed his departure. In a rare move, the President of the Republic asked for a meeting with Mário Centeno in order, according to the media, to asking to not leave the government this year. After, the meeting Centeno said he was not leaving the government, as long as the crisis lasts, and added the the President signed the 2020 budget. However, he warned that the a rectified budget will be needed as the economy is expected to drop massively this year.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 23, 2020, 06:12:02 PM
António Costa interview to TVI: "There are no lifebuoys" to help the economy in this "tsunami". We need a "Marshall or von der Leyen plan".


Quote
António Costa: "Losing a third of wages is dramatic for most Portuguese"

PM António Costa gave an TV interview to TVI in which he announced several measures to prevent the spread of the virus in Portugal, fiscal/economic policies and also a plea for a new Marshal plan for Europe, adding that there will be big and long discussions between all EU countries. Costa announced that in the next few days, 280,000 new tests will be available, 80,000 by the end of the week. He also announced that the State will pay the wages of workers in layoff situation, in order to prevent mass sacking of workers and that it will 1 billion euros per month. He also said that, according to the predictions of the Health services, the situation in Portugal will not be out of control and that hospital will have everything they need, including 500 new ventilators for hospitals. Costa also commented on the current State of Emergency and said that, only today, 9 people were arrested for violating the law and he says that more restrictive measures could be put into practice if people don't respect the State of Emergency.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 23, 2020, 07:32:52 PM
Intercampus poll for CM/CMTV:  (http://quiosque.cofina.pt/jornal-de-negocios)

Vote share %:

31.4% PS (+0.3)
21.9% PSD (-1.9)
14.5% BE (+1.3)
  8.6% CHEGA (+1.7)
  6.1% CDU (-0.2)
  5.9% PAN (+0.5)
  3.6% CDS (+0.1)
  2.3% IL (-0.2)
  0.2% Livre (-0.6)
  5.5% Others/Invalid (-0.6)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.7 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.2)
3.3 António Costa (+0.3)
3.1 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
3.0 Rui Rio (+0.1)
2.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.9 André Silva (+0.2)
2.8 Francisco Rodrigues do Santos (+0.2)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.4 André Ventura (-0.2)
1.9 Joacine Katar Moreira  (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 13 and 19 March 2020. Polled 611 votes. MoE of 4.0%

Intercampus polls are becoming weirder and weirder...


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 24, 2020, 03:38:12 PM
Coronavirus crisis and politics: PSD leader, Rui Rio, leaves the debate in Parliament in protest against his own caucus.


Quote
Parliament: Rio abandoned debate for having too many deputies on its bench

The PSD wants Parliament to be more low profile and wants debates plenaries to be suspended and that Parliament should work like they do in the summer, due to the Coronavirus. The Speaker and PS, BE and CDU were against and in today's PMs Q&A debate, the PSD, once again, criticized the fact that there was a debate, and the Speaker said that Parliament cannot close and said that the PSD had more MPs in the room than necessary. In fact, Rio sent an email to all PSD MPs asking to be just 18 in the debate, naming the ones that should be there. Some, stayed in their seats, and Rio, clearly upset, said to the Speaker that he cannot kick off PSD MPs from the room, but he would be an example and leave the debate.

Also, new poll from ISCTE/GfK from Expresso and SIC TV on the Coronavirus response:  (https://sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Sondagem-ICS_ISCTE_Mar%C3%A7o2020_Covid.pdf)

Q: Who do you trust more in the response of the crisis?

79% Police forces
77% Directorate-General of Health
75% Prime Minister
74% President of the Republic
68% Mayors
66% Health minister
62% Parliament

Q: About the State of Emergency, what of the phrases to you support more?

51% It was necessary and the measures were adequate
44% It was necessary but new restrictive measures are needed
  3% No need for the State of Emergency
  1% Undecided

Q: Do you know anyone infected with the virus?

95% No
  5% Yes

Q: Overall, how are you dealing with the restrictions

44% Somewhat easily
31% Somewhat difficult
16% Very easy
  8% Very difficult
  1% Undecided

Q: How long do you think we'll have to live with these restrictions?

45% Until the summer
18% Until the end of April
17% Until the end of the summer
  4% In more than a year
15% Undecided

Poll conducted between 20 and 22 March 2020. Polled 625 voters. MoE of 4.00%



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 27, 2020, 08:32:02 AM
Euro summit fallout: Costa calls Dutch finance minister words "disgusting" as EU leaders fail to agree on the "coronabonds":


Quote
"Disgusting." What made António Costa so angry at the Netherlands? - TSF

After the meeting with all EU leaders, PM António Costa talked to the press and was quite frustrated by the results of the meeting. But when a reporter asked him to comment on the words of the Dutch finance minister that Spain should be investigated for not having enough capacity of response, Costa didn't hold back:

Quote
This is a speech that is disgusting within the framework of the European Union. The expression is really this: disgusting. No one is available to listen to finance ministers like the ones we have heard in 2008, 2009, 2010 and consecutive years.

(...)

It wasn't Spain that created the virus, the virus hit us all equally, "saying that" the answer is an absolute unconsciousness. It is an absolute stinginess that completely undermines the European Union's base.

It was unbearable to work with Mr. Dijsselbloem, but apparently there are countries that insist on changing names, but keeping people with the same profile


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 27, 2020, 08:48:59 AM
Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF on the popularity of political leaders:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/infografia-a-avaliacao-do-desempenho-do-presidente-da-republica-11993032.html)

PM António Costa' job approval:

60% Approve (+7)
32% Disapprove (-8 )
  8% Undecided (+1)

Government' job approval:

47% Average (+5)
33% Approve (+3)
20% Disapprove (-8 )

Opposition' job approval:

48% Average (+18 )
35% Disapprove (-26)
17% Approve (+8 )

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa' job approval:

85% Approve (-2)
15% Disapprove (+2)

Poll conducted between 13 and 21 March 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 28, 2020, 04:13:00 AM
Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-intencao-de-voto-para-as-eleicoes-legislativas-11998872.html)

Vote share %:

41.7% PS (+5.4)
25.2% PSD (-2.6)
  8.6% BE (-0.9)
  8.1% CHEGA (+6.8 )
  5.4% CDU (-0.9)
  3.1% PAN (-0.2)
  2.9% CDS(-0.4)
  2.0% IL (+0.7)
  3.1% Others/Invalid (-6.9)

Poll conducted between 13 and 21 March 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Farmlands on March 28, 2020, 03:51:32 PM
Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF on the popularity of political leaders:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/infografia-a-avaliacao-do-desempenho-do-presidente-da-republica-11993032.html)

PM António Costa' job approval:

60% Approve (+7)
32% Disapprove (-8 )
  8% Undecided (+1)

Government' job approval:

47% Average (+5)
33% Approve (+3)
20% Disapprove (-8 )

Opposition' job approval:

48% Average (+18 )
35% Disapprove (-26)
17% Approve (+8 )

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa' job approval:

85% Approve (-2)
15% Disapprove (+2)

Poll conducted between 13 and 21 March 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

It seems like the US is an outlier when it comes to country leaders seeing their approval ratings massively improve in relation to this crisis. And in my opinion, Costa deserves it too, since he's been very responsible and objective in his appearances whenever he's addressing the nation. I'm glad most of our party leaders are competent politicians.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 29, 2020, 06:58:31 AM
It seems like the US is an outlier when it comes to country leaders seeing their approval ratings massively improve in relation to this crisis. And in my opinion, Costa deserves it too, since he's been very responsible and objective in his appearances whenever he's addressing the nation. I'm glad most of our party leaders are competent politicians.

Indeed, Costa has been a pleasent surprise during this crisis. He's calm, tough and assertive. It's a side of him we've never seen before as he had a history of panicking when crisis emerged, like in the wildfires f.e.. He's position against the Dutch minister is also a big boost to his popularity and many people who don't like him at all in Portugal, are by his side on this one.

Now, the following economic crisis will be another huge challenge for Costa. Trying to manage the expectations of a country that was highly dependent on services that vanished overnight, will not be easy. Some newspapers and pundits are suggesting that Costa will be the "Portuguese Churchill" meaning he will win the war against the virus, but will not be the one chosen to reconstruct the economy, meaning that Rio will the "Portuguese Attlee". I'm a bit skeptical about this scenario, but who knows at this point.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 01, 2020, 07:28:00 PM
Coronavirus crisis: President of the Republic extends the State of Emergency for 2 more weeks and sends the decree for Parliamentary approval.  (https://www.publico.pt/2020/04/01/politica/noticia/renovacao-estado-emergencia-preve-alteracao-calendario-escolar-1910611)


Quote
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa extends suspension of the right to strike and requisition of workers by the State.

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has extended the State of Emergency for two more weeks and added some more details compared with the previous decree, 2 weeks ago. The Presidential decree now goes for Parliamentary approval. The new decree has some new details:

- Suspension of the right to strike for essential goods;
- Changes of the school calender;
- The Government can stop sacking of workers;
- Prices could be controlled to prevent hoarding and speculation;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: windjammer on April 02, 2020, 02:05:46 AM
Yes, if it could pressure Germany and the Netherlands to accept the eurobonds, that would be great.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 03, 2020, 06:35:10 AM
Yes, if it could pressure Germany and the Netherlands to accept the eurobonds, that would be great.

At least, Costa's strong remarks embarrassed the Dutch government and they retracted and apologized for their remarks. On the eurobonds, I'm not that sure they will be a reality. We'll see.

Also, Costa did another interview this week, this time to Renascença Radio, where he touch on a very important issue:


Quote
António Costa. "Portugal will have to return to producing what it used to import from China"

Quote
Decreasing dependence on imports from China is the first great economic lesson that António Costa draws from the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. In an interview with Renascença, the Prime Minister underlines that this is the moment of "Europe, and Portugal has to position itself for this, to produce inland much of what it used to import from China".

"The biggest reflection we have to make is that today we cannot have economic chains as extensive and as dependent on one country as China. This is the biggest lesson", he assumes.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 03, 2020, 12:23:21 PM
Update: Political leaders perceptions on Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.):

Week 29 March-3 April 2020. (https://infogram.com/ra-sentimento-2020-04-03-1ho16v8x1wqx2nq)

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic:

38% Negative
21% Positive
41% Neutral

António Costa, PS leader and Prime Minister:

65% Positive
  6% Negative
29% Neutral

Rui Rio, PSD leader:

71% Positive
13% Negative
16% Neutral

Analysis conducted by ISCTE-IUL, University Institute of Lisbon.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 03, 2020, 01:21:20 PM
Why are the President's ratings (still) negative?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 03, 2020, 02:55:50 PM
Why are the President's ratings (still) negative?

This is data from social media posts, twitter, facebook where people comment, share and talk positively or negatively about these 3 political leaders. The official polling, gives Marcelo a 70/80% plus approval rating. However, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has had some negative press in the last few weeks. As Costa basically concentrated all the decision making on the crisis and has appeared a lot on TV and radio to calm the population and being quite pragmatic and serene, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa made some things that didn't go well in the media, and social media, like continuing to shake hands and talk to people, and then going into isolation, a few weeks ago, and showing up in his balcony to talk to reporters in front of his house, or the Skype interview he did from his home, which was weird. During this time, like I said above, Costa was rallying the country and making decisions to prevent the spread of the virus, and Marcelo was put in the sidelines a bit.

He's still very popular, however, his actions weren't very well perceived, especially on social media.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 04, 2020, 06:18:17 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper:  (https://www.dnoticias.pt/leitor/blogues/pandemia-nao-altera-preferencia-eleitoral-BF6043726)

Vote share %:

37.5% PS (+0.2)
27.2% PSD (-0.2)
  9.0% BE (+0.2)
  6.0% CDU (-0.3)
  3.6% CHEGA (+0.3)
  2.8% CDS(-0.1) 
  2.4% PAN (-0.4)
  1.2% IL (+0.1)
10.3% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 29 March and 2 April 2020. Polled 1,008 voters. MoE of 3.09%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 04, 2020, 10:06:25 AM
Crisis in CHEGA: André Ventura resigns from the leadership and calls a leadership contest to clarify everything, the media is reporting.


Quote
André Ventura resigns from CHEGA' leadership and calls for elections in September to "clarify".

Quote
André Ventura will present his resignation of leader of the CHEGA party and has already revealed that intention to those closest to him in the party structure, Observador found out. The official communication to the party members should be made next week. The MP also said that he will call elections for the leadership in September.

According to a CHEGA's source, close to André Ventura, the criticisms - which had already started to be heard in recent months - were aggravated by the MP's decision to choose to abstain from voting on the presidential decree for the renewal of the state of emergency. This after having voted in favor of this exceptionality regime on 18 March.

(...)

Observador knows that since Thursday "messages and phone calls have rained with criticisms and accusations", which would have precipitated the decision to knock on André Ventura's door. In September, but still with no date set, the National Council will meet and "clarify what leadership CHEGA wants".

It's not the first time that news of a bad internal environment within the CHEGA party appears. In a message via WhatsApp that Sábado magazine had access to, sent to the district offices on February 24, André Ventura said: "I'm tired of this. I walk around the country explaining to people that we are different, sometimes with hours of travel and minutes of sleep, and what I hear, miles away, is: have you seen what is written on this page of CHEGA? And on this page of this leader? If this atmosphere remains in the party, I will resign before the summer. I'm not for this! ”


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 05, 2020, 12:18:07 PM
Update on the CHEGA internal crisis: Ventura has confirmed he resigned but will run again and defies his opponents within the party to run against him.


Quote
Politics - "I'm fed up and tired": André Ventura reveals why he resigned from CHEGA's leadership

In a video posted on his Facebook page, during Saturday' evening, André Ventura confirmed he was resigning accusing many within the party of boycotting his leadership and dared his internal "enemies" to run against him. He added he's fed up and tired with these situations and wants to clarify the situation by calling a leadership contest.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 06, 2020, 01:56:28 PM
Coronovirus crisis: PS postpones their national congress without data, while PSD proposes fiscal policies for the economy:


Quote
PS postpones the May national conference due to Covid-19

Quote
The Socialist Party (PS) announced this Monday the cancellation of the party's XXIII National Congress, scheduled for May 30 and 31. In a letter sent to the members of the Permanent Commission, the President of the PS, Carlos César, justifies the postponement with the "emergency and public health situation" that Portugal is going through and says that as soon as circumstances permit it will announce a new date for the magna meeting.


Quote
Covid-19: PSD proposes strengthening credit lines, postponing tax payments and discounts at housing tax

The PSD proposed a series of policies, beyond what the government already had proposed, for the economy. Rui Rio said he will deliver these policies, in person, to António Costa. The main policies are:

- Increase credit lines for businesses from the current 3 billion euros, proposed the government, to 10 billion euros;
- Postponement of tax payments (VAT, Corporate taxes and Social Security);
- Exemptions from bank charges for small businesses;
- Cut in housing tax for families and businesses;
- Allowing businesses to give holidays for workers during the crisis;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 08, 2020, 02:47:18 PM
Tension between PS and PSD following the government's proposal to pardon many convicted felons due to the Coronavirus:  (https://observador.pt/2020/04/08/reclusos-libertados-luz-agua-gas-e-internet-nao-podem-ser-cortadas-durante-a-crise/)

Parliament voted today more than 100 measures, proposed by all parties and the government, to tackle the Coronavirus crisis. The PSD has basically boycotted this parliamentary session by accusing the leftwing parties of creating a "Parliamentary folklore" by proposing policies which they didn't talked with the government, in a time, the PSD believes, all legislative action should be concentrated in the government and not Parliament. The leftwing parties accused the PSD, and Rui Rio particularly, of being two faced and of boycotting everything.

However, the big tension in this session was the government' proposal to pardon many convicted felons, in order to prevent the spread of the virus in prisons. PSD and the rest of the rightwing parties, CDS, IL and CHEGA, strongly criticized the government's plan accusing the government of pardoning sentences of felons who committed violent crimes. The PS, and the leftwing parties, accused the PSD and the rightwing of populism and that this is the most human thing to do. The reactions of the PSD and PS:

PSD reaction:

Quote
Covid-19 is no reason to pardon penalties and release offenders. This is justified for those over 60 and those with risky pathologies, to go under house arrest. Once the risk has been overcome, they must return to where they were to fulfill the remaining time. This is what I stand for.

PS reaction:

Quote
Dr. Rui Rio, the speech of fear is dangerous. Prisoners are people who must be treated humanely and what is at stake is a public health issue. Do not let your foot run away from populism, that is the land of others ....

In the end, the government's proposal was approved with the votes of PS, BE and CDU, while PSD, CDS, IL and CHEGA voted against. PAN abstained and Joacine Katar Moreira voted in favour.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 10, 2020, 01:29:36 PM
Coronavirus crisis: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will propose a 3rd extension of the State of Emergency, until May 1st:


Quote
PR will propose renewal of the State of Emergency until May 1.

Quote
The President of the Republic affirmed this afternoon that "his conviction" has been formed "regarding the renewal of the state of emergency until May 1 at 24:00". We "cannot play on duty", said Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, "we cannot loosen up, we cannot at this decisive moment let our guard down".

The 3rd extension will be approved as the government is in favour as is the PSD. PM António Costa has already announced his approval of the extension and is even considering extending it until May 15th. PSD leader Rui Rio, also said, yesterday in a TV interview, that he's in favour of extending the State of Emergency.

The President also labeled as "fake news" a report from Correio da Manhã newspaper that pedophiles and rapists would also be included in the prison pardons. (https://www.ojogo.pt/covid-19/marcelo-rebelo-de-sousa-sobre-indultos-nao-ha-razao-para-alarmismos-12057423.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said the pardon doesn't include those who committed sexual crimes, and asked for the media to not create unnecessary alarms in people.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 10, 2020, 02:17:50 PM
Update: Political leaders perceptions on Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.):

Week 5-10 April 2020. (https://infogram.com/ra-sentimento-2020-04-10-1hnp277pqkzn2gq) (compared with last week)

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic:

48% Positive (+27)
   2% Negative (-36)
50% Neutral (+9)

António Costa, PS leader and Prime Minister:

66% Negative (+60)
11% Positive (-54)
23% Neutral (-6)

Rui Rio, PSD leader:

85% Positive (+14)
   6% Negative (-7)
  9% Neutral (-7)

Analysis conducted by ISCTE-IUL, University Institute of Lisbon.

Social media reacted very well to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa speech after he met with the leaders of the banking sector where he said that Banks should give back to the people the help they gave to the banks after the 2008 recession; Costa's decision to cancel schools exams expect for high-school students was badly received by students in social media, with many students criticizing Costa; Rui Rio's tweet against the pardon of prisoners was very well received, but he also had help from Spain, as many parties and newspapers were applauding Rio's speech, a few weeks ago, in the State of Emergency debate in Parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 10, 2020, 05:36:23 PM
António Costa interview to Lusa agency: Costa questions Dutch commitment to the EU



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 17, 2020, 07:18:01 AM
State of Emergency extended for a 3rd time, but with more opposition than last time:


Quote
Parliament: Criticism rises to the Government's strategy for the state of emergency, which runs until 2 May

Parliament has approved a 3rd extension of the State of Emergency until May 2nd, with the votes of PS, PSD, BE, CDS and PAN. But, PCP voted against the extension this time, along side IL and Joacine Katar Moreira. PCP and IL say that the State of Emergency isn't necessary anymore and that workers rights are being hurt by the extension. IL adds that many red lines have been crossed during the month long State of Emergency, like the limitation of freedoms.

But, António Costa announced that there will be a gradual return to normal during May. The PM announced a series of steps for the return of normal in May:  (https://observador.pt/2020/04/16/horarios-de-trabalho-a-vez-creches-reabertas-mais-transportes-e-mascaras-o-roteiro-de-costa-para-o-regresso-a-normalidade-em-maio/)

- Advising the use of masks in all public spaces and producing a huge amount of them;
- Increase the offer of public transportation to avoid overcrowding;
- Telework should continue;
- Workers can go to offices by shifts, some in the morning, others in the afternoon;
- Reopening of kindergardens and possibly some schools;
- People should book holidays in Portugal and avoid leaving the country;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 18, 2020, 06:40:32 AM
Economic crisis after Covid-19: Costa and Rio don't rule out austerity.

Both leaders don't say the word, but both aren't ruling out fiscal adjustments during the economic crisis following the pandemic. To Expresso newspaper, Costa doesn't guarantee that austerity will be avoided and Rio follows the same line saying that there will be fiscal constraints and that unpopular and difficult measures will be necessary.


Quote
Austerity? “I do not give an answer that I cannot guarantee tomorrow”, says Costa


Quote
Rui Rio to Expresso: "There will be budgetary constraints"

Also, there's a controversy growing about the 25 April ceremonies in Parliament. PS and PSD agreed to hold a ceremony, as always, in Parliament with a limited number of people. However, parties on the right are fiercely criticizing the idea and CDS has already announced they will not be present in the ceremony, saying it isn't right to hold this ceremony when millions of Portuguese can't go out. A petition to cancel the ceremonies already has almost 27,000 signatures.  (https://observador.pt/2020/04/18/25-de-abril-mais-de-15-000-pedem-cancelamento-da-sessao-solene-no-parlamento/)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 19, 2020, 02:39:53 PM
Intercampus poll on the release of some prisoners due to the Covid-19 outbreak:  (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/justica/detalhe/sondagem-maioria-dos-portugueses-discorda-de-libertacao-de-reclusos)

Q: Do you agree that there should be a release of prisoners in Portugal because of the virus?

53.6% Disagree
37.2% Agree
  9.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 9 and 14 April 2020. Polled 623 voters. MoE of 3.9%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 20, 2020, 03:21:32 AM
Intercampus poll for CMTV and CM/Negócios newspapers:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/graficos/detalhe/saiba-qual-e-a-intencao-de-agora-face-aos-resultados-de-marco?ref=Pesquisa_Destaques)

Vote share %:

35.4% PS (+4.0)
23.3% PSD (+1.4)
11.9% BE (-2.6)
   7.8% CHEGA (-0.8 )
   5.8% CDU (-0.3)
   4.9% PAN (-1.0)
   3.9% CDS (+0.3)
   2.4% IL (+0.1)
   0.7% Livre (+0.5)
   0.7% Others (-1.1)
  3.2% Blank/Invalid (-0.4)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.8 António Costa (+0.4)
3.4 Rui Rio (+0.4)
3.1 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
2.7 André Silva (-0.2)
2.7 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.2 André Ventura (-0.2)
1.8 Joacine Katar Moreira (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 9 and 14 April 2020. Polled 623 voters. MoE of 3.9%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 20, 2020, 01:50:57 PM
25 April ceremony in Parliament: Only 65 MPs, out of 230, will be present.


Quote
April 25. Parties reduce the number of deputies present at the formal session:

Parliament has confirmed that the 25 April ceremony will go ahead as schedule, but with just 28% of MPs present and a few invitees. This decision is creating a lot of controversy with many pundits criticizing the ceremony for going ahead when the country is in lockdown and in State of Emergency. The Speaker, Ferro Rodrigues, is defending the decision to hold the ceremony but he's still being very criticized. There are two petitions about this ceremony: one, against the ceremony, has more than 100,000 signatures, while the other, in favour, has almost 30,000 signatures.

Just 65 MPs will be present, with the PSD sending 27, the number could still be lowered, the PS 22, BE 6, PCP 4, CDS, PAN, IL, PEV, CHEGA 1 each and Joacine Katar Moreira will also attend. Former Presidents of the Republic will also be present like Ramalho Eanes, while Jorge Sampaio will not be present. Cavaco Silva hasn't announced his intentions.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 24, 2020, 11:19:38 AM
Political update:

PM António Costa meet today with business leaders to set a timetable to open shops, restaurants and bars in May. Business leaders and Costa discussed the way to "reopen" the economy and discussed the pros and cons of Czech, Austrian and German models, hinting that the Portuguese model will be similar with these 3 countries. The opening of shops, hairdressers, restaurants and bars is expected after May 4th, when the current State of Emergency ends, and the PM, announced after the meeting that a cabinet meeting on April 30th will set the final timetable and businesses that will reopen. Costa also said that all businesses will not open at once but by a 15 day period: some will open of May 4th, others on May 18th and finally on June 1st.


Quote
Shops start to open in a staggered way from May 4th. Government looks at European models:

Costa also announced that during the Labour day holiday weekend, travel between and to different municipalities will be forbidden (https://observador.pt/2020/04/24/antonio-costa-anuncia-proibicao-de-deslocacoes-entre-concelhos-no-fim-de-semana-do-1o-de-maio/) like what happened during Easter. He also met with the Islamic community leader in Portugal, and thanked the support and help they gave to authorities to control the pandemic in the country and in the community.

Also, Santana Lopes, Alliance leader, will take part in a PSD virtual debate to discuss the Covid-19 pandemic:


Quote
Parties and movements: PSD Lisbon invites Santana Lopes to a conference on the covid-19 crisis

It is the first time since Santana Lopes bitter departure from the PSD, that he accepts an invitation from his former party. His party catastrophic results in the 2019 elections almost shunned him from the spotlight, and the media is labeling this Santana move as "his return to the PSD... in a virtual way". Nonetheless, Santana Lopes has talked of leaving the leadership of his own a party and said he will not be a candidate for the 2021 elections, Presidential and Local.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-02-10-Santana-Lopes-diz-nao-a-autarquicas-e-a-presidenciais)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 24, 2020, 12:25:08 PM
Ferro Rodrigues, Speaker of Parliament, continues surrounded in controversy because of his remarks:


Quote
Ferro Rodrigues and the 25th of April: "Petitions on the internet don't tell me anything"

An interview to TSF radio by the Speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues, is creating some controversy and even his own party is quite upset. In the interview, Ferro Rodrigues, said that Petitions from the internet don't count as they need real signatures, and for him, are meaningless. When he was asked if MPs will be forced to wear masks in the ceremony, he said no and accused many people of being "masked" as "Aprilists" during the last few years but that now they've shown their true face.

The interview didn't end well according to pundits and even his own party is upset. Carlos César, PS president, said that Ferro Rodrigues made a mistake by creating an unnecessary controversy because of the 25 April ceremony.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 24, 2020, 08:41:49 PM
Eurosondagem poll on the 2021 Presidential election:  (https://www.dnoticias.pt/impressa/hemeroteca/diario-de-noticias/furacao-marcelo-arrasa-concorrencia-HF6160810)

Vote share %:

70.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD)
  8.4% Ana Gomes (Ind/PS)
  7.2% Marisa Matias (BE)
  5.5% André Ventura (CHEGA)
  5.2% Arménio Carlos (CDU)
  2.0% André Silva (PAN)
  1.0% João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

Poll conducted between 20 and 23 April 2020. Polled 1,048 voters. MoE of 3.03%

Note: Of the candidates listed in the poll, only André Ventura has officially announced his candidacy. The rest are all potential candidates.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 25, 2020, 06:58:39 AM
April 25 ceremony in Parliament: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says that not evoking the 25 April would be a bad sign to the country.  (https://observador.pt/2020/04/25/um-mes-depois-do-inicio-do-confinamento-portugueses-acham-que-correm-menos-risco-de-infecao/)


Quote
It would be a civic absurdity "to stop invoking April 25, defends Marcelo.

The ceremony evoking the 46 anniversary of the 25 April revolution that ended the almost half century Estado Novo dictatorship was held this morning in Parliament. All parties and the President of the Republic made brief speeches as the ceremony was cut short and with very few attendees due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

A quick summary of the speeches:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa:
Quote
The Portuguese would not understand disagreement with Parliament. These times imposes unity on us;
Isn't this an exceptional time and in exceptional times, shouldn't ritualistic and customary evocations be dispensed with? No. It is precisely in exceptional situations that customs and rituals are imposed. June 10th is essential and will be invoked, as will December 1st and October 5th. April 25 is essential and had to be mentioned. It is in times of suffering that it is most important to evoke the motherland.

Ana Catarina Mendes (PS)
Quote
That morning, the captains of April filled the streets of Portugal with hope and gave my generation the opportunity to grow in freedom;
Celebrating freedom is working for democracy and we must not withdraw from any of the necessary dimensions of that work. And we do it on behalf of and by the Portuguese who elected and elected us, they trusted in our dedication to keeping alive the flame of freedom, the Constitution and the Republic.

Rui Rio (PSD)
Quote
For the first time, Portugal celebrates April 25 with conditional freedom;
More important than planning the presence of government officials in newspapers and on television to advertise, at all times, what they did and what they did not do, is to plan the country's response to a possible second round of Covid-19;
The PS and the parliamentary majority parties that support the Government have guaranteed that, with them, there will not be any kind of austerity, (...) it is a news that certainly pleases everyone, but such optimism cannot prevent us from preparing for the worst scenario, because, as the people teach us, 'prevention is better than cure'
.

Moisés Ferreira  (BE)
Quote
This is an April 25th unlike any other. Different in the way, but even more important in the meaning;
The 25th of April was neither suspended nor postponed and that there are nights that give way to whole and clean days.

Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU)
Quote
The April revolution is the heritage of the people and the future. Today we celebrate here with confidence that the best of your path is yet to come;
We need to realize April thinking about May, who works, who is in hospitals, factories and fields every day, to ensure that the country does not stop.

Telmo Correia (CDS)
Quote
In democracy, there are no indispensable dates and other indispensable dates, as imposed by the majority;
Collective freedom is defended by all those who, in the first line, are saving lives, but also by all those who, respecting what political power has determined, are confined, abdicating their individual freedom. So this is a bad example.

Inês Sousa Real (PAN)
Quote
In this House we must not forget that democracy is for everyone and for everyone. There are no owners of democracy;
In Democracy, ceremonies and other symbologies will serve little or nothing, showing themselves to be unaware of people's aspirations and concerns, much less of the consequences of the current health, economic, social and environmental crisis, dictated by a silent and unknown disease.

André Ventura (CHEGA)
Quote
What's worth a clove to the chest if we have more and more taxes, many of them to pay to many minorities that we don't deserve and that we pay. April poor people have to be mentioned because they are also the reason we pay so many taxes;
Another April 25th is needed, we want others, we want another democracy, we want the IV Portuguese Republic.

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
Quote
I will read you a letter I wrote to my son, celebrating his birthday today, a happy occasion: (...) You will choose your own way of fighting. But whatever it is, my son, do it with the courage you have already shown. Fight for yourself, for young people like you, for those who will be like you, for those who were like you and also for those who do not think the same as you. This is what April 25th was for. To free you from a dictatorship, yes, but above all, to free you from everything and everyone who won't let you look for what you freely desire


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: VPH on April 25, 2020, 08:08:59 AM
André Ventura's rhetoric around the 25 de Abril is a little worrisome imo.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 25, 2020, 10:09:06 AM
André Ventura's rhetoric around the 25 de Abril is a little worrisome imo.
Well, it's not the first time he talks of another "25 April" and of a IV Republic, whatever that means. And  Ventura's words are not always aligned with his actions. For example, he today went on against the III Republic, cloves in the chest and all of that, but while he was a PSD councillor in Loures city, he celebrated the 25 April like every politician does:




Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: CumbrianLefty on April 25, 2020, 10:49:52 AM
André Ventura's rhetoric around the 25 de Abril is a little worrisome imo.

Right wing loon makes loony right wing comments shocker.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 25, 2020, 01:47:41 PM
2020 Azores regional elections: President of the region, Vasco Cordeiro, doesn't foresee a postponement of the elections if the region isn't in lockdown or in State of Emergency by October.  (https://observador.pt/2020/04/25/pandemia-pode-afetar-e-muito-decisao-de-privatizar-sata/)

In an interview to RTP/Azores regarding the handling of the regional government with the Covid-19 pandemic, Vasco Cordeiro (PS) said he doesn't foresee a postponement of the regional elections, schedule for mid October, if there's no lockdown or state of emergency by then. However, the decision to call the election rests in the President of the Republic.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 28, 2020, 05:54:44 PM
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announces that the State of Emergency will end Saturday at midnight:



President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and PM António Costa met today with specialists to be updated of the situation of the virus in Portugal. Although many specialists are warning that Portugal's R(t) is still high, around 1.0 and that is still early to lift the lockdown, the President announced that the State of Emergency will end on Saturday, May 2nd, at midnight. However, what happens next will only be decided this Thursday. And there is already some controversy on some possible measures. The media is reporting, and the government has confirmed it, that a State of Calamity could be decided, the state bellow the Emergency one. However, many constitutionalists are warning that the government could be violating the Constitution (https://observador.pt/2020/04/25/constitucionalistas-questionam-eficacia-da-situacao-de-calamidade-para-combater-a-pandemia-da-covid-19/) by decreeing this, as the State of Calamity was design for local issues, not national ones and that some measures like border control or social distancing could not work in a State of Calamity. Costa has dismissed these claims, (https://www.publico.pt/2020/04/27/politica/noticia/costa-admite-fim-estado-emergencia-maio-1914043) saying that a decision is still not taken and that he's also a jurist and that they always make up new problems.

Costa also met during today with sport associations to find a way to end sport season activities in Portugal.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on April 30, 2020, 12:30:32 PM
António Costa announces the dates of the "reopening" of the country during May/June:  (https://www.publico.pt/2020/04/30/politica/noticia/consulte-calendario-desconfinamento-1914635)



The PM is announcing, right now, the dates and the ways the reopening the country will happen during May. The PM said that the lockdown between mid-March and April worked as there was no exponential growth of the virus in Portugal, and now there is a controlled growth. However, the PM will decree the State of Calamity in order to manage the "reopening" and ease the effects of the reopening. A series of businesses, sports and religious events can occur in May:

- Telework is still advised;
- Events with more than 10 people are forbidden;
- Funerals can have full families now;
- Public transports will have 2/3 capacity limit and use of masks is mandatory;
- Public services, Finances and others, will only open by appointment;
- Shops with minus 200m2 will open on May 4;
- Hairdressers, book shops, car shops will also open on May 4, some only by appointment;
- Restaurants and bars will open on May 18 and can have 50% capacity and stay open until 11pm;
- Shopping malls will open on June 1;
- Schools will open on May 18, with the use of masks being mandatory;
- Kindergardens open on June 1;
- Libraries will open on May 4, Museums and palaces on May 18 and cinemas and theatres on June 1;
- Sport activities on the outside will be allowed by May 4, with no use of locker rooms;
- The national football league and the Cup of Portugal will resume by 30 May;

Costa added that the virus is still around us and the everyone should use masks while in the outside.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 01, 2020, 07:11:40 AM
Controversies surging as there are issues about State funds to businesses and TAP airlines crisis is also in the headlines:


Quote
Layoff payment failures. Siza Vieira feels that he "defrauded expectations" and blames the Social Security "machine".


Quote
Portugal - Costa stops Pedro Nuno Santos about TAP

In the last few days some reports are saying that Social Security payments to workers in lay-off, or short-work program, are very late and that bureaucracy is blocking many businesses in receiving funds. Almost 100,000 businesses have requested these payments, covering 1,2 million workers, and some say that Social Security is refusing their claims, and many accuse Social Security of "collapsing" with the amount of requests. The Economy Minister, Pedro Siza Vieira, has apologized for the situation, saying that he defrauded the expectations of many businesses and says that Social Security is unable to attend all requests.

TAP airlines is also in a dire situation. The company needs almost 1 billion dollars to survive and there's a very bad mood between the government and the airline' board. Transport minister, Pedro Nuno Santos, said in a Parliamentary committee that if the State gives money to TAP, then the State has to have a bigger share of the company, adding "if it is the people paying, it must be the people ruling". However, on an interview to RTP1, Costa toned down the remarks of his minister saying that no one knows what will happen, adding that TAP's problem is a global airline problem.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 01, 2020, 09:36:33 AM
Donald Trump called Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, today, to congratulate Portugal's handling of the pandemic and to offer help if necessary:



The press release sent by the Presidency of the Republic:
Quote
The two Presidents shared the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic and the way in which the disease has been dealt with and its spread in each of the two countries, with particular reference to the participation of a Portuguese company in scientific tests in the United States of America, for the production of a specific medicine. The President of the Republic underlined the importance of international cooperation and the multilateral framework of international organizations to face common challenges, including the priority in fighting the pandemic and the importance of lessons learned. The American President praised the Portuguese performance in this pandemic outbreak and offered any help that would be considered useful and necessary, which the Portuguese President thanked. The two Presidents wished the greatest successes of the two friendly peoples in overcoming the present situation


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 01, 2020, 11:28:19 AM
With friends like these, eh? ;)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 01, 2020, 11:41:10 AM

I don't know why he even called. Maybe he called a lot of other countries also. And he should have called the Prime Minister as he is the "real" reason Portugal is performing quite well during this crisis. Marcelo was a player, but in a much lesser extent and he doesn't have any real powers and everything he decides has to be negotiated with the Prime Minister.

Or, as Portugal doesn't have a Trump hotel, he's looking for something to invest in the future. ;)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 02, 2020, 02:04:39 PM
Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio on taxes and on the pardoning of prison sentences:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/os-efeitos-da-crise-perdao-de-penas-e-aumento-de-impostos-12144686.html)

Q1: Do you agree with the pardoning of prison sentences due to the Covid-19?

54% No
26% Yes
17% Neither yes or no
  3% Undecided

Q2: Do you agree with the rise of these taxes:

Rise in taxes on banks? 53% Yes; 33% No; 10% Neither yes or no; 4% Undecided

Rise in Corporate taxes? 61% No; 20% Yes; 16% Neither yes or no; 3% Undecided

End on support for public transports passes? 72% No; 19% Yes; 6% Neither yes or no; 3% Undecided

Rise in Income taxes (IRS)? 70% No; 15% Yes; 13% Neither yes or no; 2% Undecided

Rise in Fuel taxes? 74% No; 14% Yes; 10% Neither yes or no; 2% Undecided

Rise in VAT? 73% No; 12% Yes; 12% Neither yes or no; 3% Undecided

Poll conducted between 15 and 26 April 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 03, 2020, 06:41:10 AM
Pitagórica poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-intencao-de-voto-para-as-eleicoes-legislativas-12146989.html)

Vote share %:

41.9% PS (+0.2)
23.1% PSD (-2.1)
  8.1% BE (-0.5)
  7.3% CHEGA (-0.8 )
  5.6% CDU (+0.2)
  2.6% PAN (-0.5)
  2.6% CDS (-0.3)
  2.6% IL (+0.6)
  6.2% Others/Invalid (+3.1)

Poll conducted between 15 and 26 April 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 04, 2020, 09:46:48 AM
More data from the Pitagórica poll:



Opposition parties:

31% Approve (+14)
21% Disapprove (-14)
48% Average (nc)

President of the Republic:

87% Approve (+2)
13% Disapprove (-2)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 04, 2020, 06:40:22 PM
The fallout of the Labour day union demonstration in Lisbon continues:

The CGTP, union close to the PCP, demonstration on Labour day, last Friday, continues to create controversy. Pundits are criticizing heavily the union and PCP for giving a bad example for the country and that the demonstration shouldn't happen. The situation became worse as it was revealed that many of the people in the demonstration weren't from Lisbon city, in the weekend where the government decreed that during the Labour day bank holiday, travels between municipalities were forbidden. This created controversy, although it was discussed with the Government. Things got more tense, when the Health minister said, in a TV interview, that religious celebrations in Fátima sanctuary could happen, like in the CGTP rally. These declarations caught the Catholic Church by surprise and created some discomfort between the Church and the government. The Church ultimately decided to not have people in the Fátima celebrations.


Quote
Blame game on the May 1st: Marcelo distances himself, Government points to the President and DGS

But, the finger pointing has began. Both the President and the Government talked with CGTP on the way the rally would happen, but the President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has become critical of the CGTP as he thought the rally would be "more restrictive". The Government is also distancing from the decision to hold the rally and is blaming the Health authorities, adding that the government was unaware of number of people that would attend the rally.


Quote
"The Church has more judgment than CGTP", says Rui Rio.

The opposition is using this to criticize the government. PSD leader, Rui Rio, which last weekend hammered the CGTP for holding a rally when the country was still in a State of Emergency, said today that the Catholic Church has a better judgment than the union, adding that he was shocked to see several buses in the rally and that the union and the Government did a bad service to workers.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 06, 2020, 09:39:23 AM
Controversy surrounding André Ventura's remarks that there should be a separate confinement plan for Gypsies:


Quote
Politics - André Ventura wants a specific containment plan for the Roma community

The controversy erupted early this week, when André Ventura, CHEGA leader, in an interview to I newspaper, said that the Roma/Gypsy community should a have a separate and specific confinement plan as that community isn't respecting the rules, according to him. He also added that he will ask the support of PSD, CDS and IL to this proposal.


Quote
Ricardo Quaresma attacks André Ventura to defend the Roma community

But, the controversy escalated yesterday when Ricardo Quaresma, a football player in Portugal's national team and from the Roma community, lashed out against André Ventura saying it's "sad that someone wants to be something in life by putting people against people". He added that "Ventura's racist populism is only in the name of power" and that he's proud to be from the Roma community and proud to be a Portuguese.

Ventura reacted to Ricardo Quaresma's statement saying that a football player in the national team shouldn't be involved in politics, and that the football authorities should bar players to make these statements.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 08, 2020, 06:40:53 AM
German newspaper, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, says that Mário Centeno will leave the Eurogroup in July.


Quote
Mário Centeno leaves Eurogroup, says German newspaper.

Quote
Mário Centeno will be leaving the Eurogroup. The Portuguese finance minister should not run for a second term as president of the body that brings together finance ministers from countries in the Eurozone, reveals the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Centeno has been president of the Eurogroup since January 2018, having succeeded Dutchman Jeroen Dijsselbloem. The current term ends on 13 July this year and the leading German newspaper cites information from behind the scenes of the Eurogroup to indicate that Centeno will not be willing to run for a second term.

Without identifying the sources, the news reports that Mário Centeno is “tired due to the amount of work”, in a context in which he accumulates that role with that of Portugal's Minister of Finance and does not have a large team in Brussels or Lisbon .

However, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung goes even further and guarantees that several members of the Eurogroup are unhappy with Mário Centeno's management. The newspaper even says that Centeno was "ill prepared" for the meetings and "unable to lead the discussions". In addition to the discontent, the video conference of April 8, where the ministers discussed a package of support because of the pandemic - the meeting took 16 hours and some participants considered it "a nightmare", the newspaper guarantees.

(...)

It was a foregone conclusion, a few months ago, that Centeno would leave the Eurogroup chairmanship but since the Covid-19 pandemic erupted, this talk faded as it was thought that he would stay on. If he leaves the Eurogroup, will he also leave the post of Finance minister in Portugal, like it was also reported a few months ago? We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 08, 2020, 05:28:25 PM
Controversy today as the PM wasn't informed of a 850 million euros loan to the Novo Banco by the State:  (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/mesmo-sem-auditoria-novo-banco-recebeu-mais-850-milhoes-de-euros-em-apoios-do-estado-586290)


Quote
Coronavirus: Novo Banco puts Government under fire again.

The report that the Finance ministry approved a 850 million euros loan to the Novo Banco, stunned the political scene. António Costa, during a debate in Parliament just yesterday, Thursday, said that no State loan to the Novo Banco would be given until the results of the audits into the banks numbers was complete. But it seems that Costa had to eat his words. According to the media, the loan was schedule since February and the PM wasn't informed about it. Costa was forced to apologize to parties in Parliament for the wrong information.

All parties, from left and right, are criticizing the loan, as the government shouldn't approve a loan before the audit results, and some accuse Costa of disrespecting Parliament. Pundits are also stunned by Costa's handling of this.

It's curious that this info, that suggests some kind of cut of communications between the PM and the Finance minister, comes out on the same day that a German newspaper says that Centeno will leave the Eurogroup chair.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 09, 2020, 06:31:33 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:  (https://www.dnoticias.pt/impressa/hemeroteca/diario-de-noticias/ps-ao-leme-mas-psd-encurta-distancia-JH6238931)

Vote share %:

37.7% PS (+0.2)
29.4% PSD (+2.2)
  8.3% BE (-0.7)
  5.5% CDU (-0.5)
  4.0% CHEGA (+0.4)
  3.0% CDS(+0.2) 
  2.5% PAN (+0.1)
  1.2% IL (nc)
  8.4% Others/Invalid (-1.9)

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 May 2020. Polled 1,005 voters. MoE of 3.09%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 09, 2020, 10:59:20 AM
Another controversy as the government bans all summer festivals until September 30th, but is open to allowing the PCP festival in September:


Quote
Costa admits Festa do Avante if DGS recommendations are met.

The government approved a bill, to be voted next week in Parliament, that bans all summer festivals until September 30th. (https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/05/07/pais/governo-proibe-festivais-de-musica-ate-30-de-setembro/noticia/192054/) The Communist Party holds each year a annual big festival in early September and they were planning to hold the festival as normal. But, just hours after the government approved the bill, the wording of the texts was changes to include "festivals and other similar events", meaning the PCP festival, the Festa do Avante, was included and could not happen.

However, in an interview to Porto Canal, Costa opened the door to the possibility of the PCP festival happening as normal, with some limitations, adding that political activity of parties isn't forbidden. Costa also said that each party needs to be responsible, adding that his own Socialist Party postponed their congress "sine die".

The PCP will make a decision on the event after the bill is voted in Parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 13, 2020, 09:27:57 AM
The Novo Banco loan controversy continues, with Centeno saying that Costa may have not known, but Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is also contradicting Centeno:


Quote
Centeno admits "communication failure" with António Costa about Novo Banco

Mário Centeno, Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman, continues in the center of a controversy surrounding the 850 million loan to the Novo Banco. In an interview to TSF radio, yesterday, Centeno said that the loan was in the 2020 budget and it was approved by the Council of Ministers. He added that there may have been a communication failure between him and the PM, but that their relationship has not been damaged, adding that his failure to inform the PM was that country couldn't afford to put at risk a big bank in the middle of huge crisis. He also said that no audit was necessary to approve this new loan. In Parliament, today, Centeno repeated the same things he said in the interview but was hammered by all parties, left to right, for his explanation of Costa's ignorance about the loan.


Quote
Marcelo pulls the rug out to Centeno: injection at Novo Banco could not happen without audit

And at the same time this happened, the PM and the President were visiting a car factory where reporters asked them about this controversy. Costa didn't talked about the issue, but Marcelo did and contradicted Centeno saying that a new loan could only happen after an audit was finished. The media is quite stunned with these remarks as it puts Centeno all alone while Costa and Marcelo start distancing themselves from Centeno. Some pundits are wondering if Centeno will really leave the government in the next few months.

And also, the PM told reporters that he hopes to visit the factory within a year again with the President "when he will be starting his second term". Media is saying that Costa has unofficially given the PS support to Marcelo reelection with this statement. The last time a PM supported a President of the opposite party was in 1991 when Cavaco Silva (PSD) supported the reelection of Mário Soares (PS).


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 13, 2020, 01:55:10 PM
PSD leader, Rui Rio, demands the resignation of Mário Centeno


Quote
Rui Rio aks the resignation of Centeno. "He is unable to continue"

The controversy of the Novo Banco loan is accelerating. After the PS refused to defend Centeno in Parliament and the President of the Republic contradicted the Finance minister, PSD leader Rui Rio has demanded the resignation of Mário Centeno as he was "disloyal to the Prime Minister" and that he has no ground to go on. He also attacked Costa for being silent in this whole process.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 13, 2020, 06:00:11 PM
Well, what a soup-opera the last few hours were.

After the President's words and the opposition demand that Centeno has to quit, the PM and Mário Centeno held an emergency meeting in the PM' official residence to discuss the situation. After a 3 hour meeting, Centeno and Costa exited together but didn't talk to the media and entered in separate cars. After that, the PM office gave a press release to the media where the PM says he has full personal and political confidence in Mário Centeno and that he will remain in the government.

The media is saying that Costa has weakened Centeno and that his exit is just a matter of time. Some media outlets say that Centeno will remain until the end of June, when his term of the Eurogroup ends, while others don't say a specific date. Many pundits, however, said that a possible exit of Centeno right now would send a bad message to markets as it would say that Portugal is in a political crisis. But, a weakened Finance minister isn't ideal also. Let's see how this plays out.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 14, 2020, 10:33:13 AM
More developments of the "mini political crisis" of yesterday: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has called Mário Centeno to explain his remarks about him.  (https://observador.pt/2020/05/14/marcelo-rebelo-de-sousa-ligou-a-centeno-a-pedir-desculpa-pelo-equivoco-na-autoeuropa/)

The mini political crisis of yesterday, which has put Mário Centeno as lame duck finance minister continues to dominate headlines. Today, it was revealed, and confirmed by the Presidential Palace, that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa telephoned Mário Centeno to explain his remarks saying that it was all a misunderstanding, but that the President still believes that the loan should have only happen after an audit.

The "mini-crisis" seems averted for now, but the timetable for a restart seems to by the end of June/mid July, when Centeno term ends in the Eurogroup.


Quote
Centeno, Costa and Marcelo. Does anyone come out of this movie well?

Pundits and political analysts suggest that no one looks good in the picture, criticizing both Costa and Marcelo for trying to create a crisis during these times and this controversy is more proof of lack of coordination in the government. Pundits also label Costa' announcement of a support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa 2nd term as political spin to divert attention from the Novo Banco controversy and to try to surpass the PSD as the first to support Marcelo.

The PS was also caught by surprise by this support of Costa to Marcelo. (https://observador.pt/2020/05/14/ps-supreendido-nao-foi-bem-um-apoio/) According to the media, many PS insiders knew Costa was preparing a "stunt" about Marcelo, but no one knew what. Nonetheless, the PS headquarters were caught by surprise as this could bloc the PS in supporting any center-left independent candidate that appears, but some hope that Costa was vague enough to be able to retract this statement. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was also caught by surprise as he only wanted to talk about his reelection by November.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 15, 2020, 03:41:13 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/intencao-de-voto-no-ps-cresce-apesar-da-crise-politica-e-marcelo-mantem-se-o-favorito-dos-portugueses?ref=CmaoMinuto_DestaquesPrincipais)

Vote share %:

40.3% PS (+4.9)
23.3% PSD (nc)
   9.0% BE (-2.9)
   6.8% CHEGA (-1.0)
   5.9% CDU (+0.1)
   3.6% PAN (-1.3)
   3.6% CDS (-0.3)  
   3.2% IL (+0.7)
   0.7% Livre (nc)
   0.7% Others (nc)
  2.9% Invalid/Blank (-0.3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.9 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.1)
3.8 António Costa (nc)
3.4 Rui Rio (nc)
3.1 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
2.8 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
2.7 André Silva (nc)
2.7 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (nc)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.3 André Ventura (+0.1)
1.8 Joacine Katar Moreira (nc)

2021 Presidential elections, Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

64.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+6.0)
  8.2% Ana Gomes (-0.6)
   7.4% André Ventura (-1.9)
   4.4% Marisa Matias (-0.2)
   2.1% Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.5)
13.4% Others/Undecided (+0.9)

Note: Of the candidates listed in the poll, only André Ventura has officially announced his candidacy. Marcelo is certain to run again also. The rest are all potential candidates.

Poll conducted between 5 and 9 May 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 15, 2020, 05:41:10 PM
2021 Presidential elections: IL is considering candidates and CDS's Adolfo Mesquita Nunes is a possibility.  (https://www.publico.pt/2020/05/15/politica/noticia/iniciativa-liberal-quer-antigo-lider-candidato-presidencia-republica-1916733)

The Liberals are considering candidates for the 2021 presidential election, as a possible support of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is out of the picture. The party is suggesting their former leader as candidate, Carlos Guimarães Pinto, but he has refused and suggests CDS member Adolfo Mesquita Nunes. Mesquita Nunes is from the opposition towards the current leader of CDS and defends a more liberal and moderate CDS. The current CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, doesn't comment this possibility and adds that a decision to support, or not, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is still to be made. If something like this goes ahead, tensions in the CDS will incraese, and if Adolfo Mesquita Nunes runs for the Presidency, he will be the 1st openly gay candidate for the Presidency of the Republic.

In the last few days, many PSD, CDS members have suggested that there should another center-right candidate in the elections in order to have a third choice, beyond Marcelo and André Ventura. The PSD official support will, without doubts, go to Marcelo, but only possibly after the summer.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 16, 2020, 11:40:44 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Costa says the campaign will be different, with social distancing (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/costa-anteve-campanha-presidencial-diferente-com-distanciamento-fisico_n1229408) while André Ventura wants to postpone the elections if no rallies are allowed.


Quote
António Costa walks his wife through the streets of Lisbon

António Costa and his wife went to downtown Lisbon to talk with people and shop owners to reassure people it's ok to go outside but that you need to be carefull and be responsible. Asked by reporters of the problems of future election campaigns, Costa said that the January presidential election will be a different one as the normal campaign of mass gatherings will not happen and social distancing will be required. Things may be different for the October 2021 local elections, he said.

However, CHEGA leader and presidential candidate André Ventura wants to postpone the elections if mass rallies are forbidden.


Quote
Politics - André Ventura wants to postpone the presidential elections if mass events remain banned

Ventura says the current situation is hurting candidates and that if a ban in mass gatherings continues and will give a big advantage to the current President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, due to incumbency. He asks, if the bans continue, to postpone the elections to the 2nd trimester of 2021.

There's no plan to postpone any election for the moment. Elections in Azores, this October, and the Presidential election, next January, are expected to happen as schedule.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 17, 2020, 05:03:43 PM
More updates on the 2021 Presidential elections: Ana Gomes will reflect on a possible 2021 run.


Quote
Ana Gomes admits reflecting on candidacy for the Presidency

Ana Gomes, former PS MEP, has admitted on her weekly TV spot on SIC Notícias she will reconsider her role in the 2021 Presidential election. She previously stated she was not going to run but the announcement that Costa would support a 2nd term for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa made her change her mind. Ms Gomes said she was shocked and depressed to see António Costa announcing his support for Marcelo without hearing the PS and said that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will be the "Regime candidate" and that "it will benefit the extremists". She says that many on the center-left and center-right are worried by this scenario.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 18, 2020, 05:47:22 AM
2020 Azores regional elections: Interior minister is preparing the elections with social distancing.


Quote
Elections in the Azores, for now, without changes in the calendar says Ministry of Internal Administration:

As expected, the Interior affairs minister, Eduardo Cabrita, confirmed his team is working on how the Azores regional election, planned for this fall, will play out. The minister said that postponement isn't on the table, for now, but normal campaigning with big rallies and walkabouts will be "suspended" and parties have to develop new ways to get to voters.

The outcome of this election is almost certain: the PS will hold on to power, with the only doubt being if there will be a PS majority or not. Turnout could be decisive on this matter as in the 2019 general elections only 36.5% cast a ballot in Azores, a record low.

The elections are called by the President of the Republic. It's expected that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will set a date by August. 


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 18, 2020, 09:37:13 AM
Early summary of the Azores regional elections, to be held on late September/mid October:

Polls in Azores are quite rare as it is very difficult to poll because of the big population disparity in the region, but in the last few elections the PSD has polled around 30% almost always, PS polls around 40%, but here's the doubt as they can rise to 44% or more and secure their majority. The Covid-19 management of the regional government can also favour incumbency. CDS seems to be losing steam and could be surpassed by BE, in my opinion. CDU could drop to sixth place and PAN will likely win a seat this time. PPM will hold their seat in Corvo. I believe no other party will receive enough votes to elect seats.

Using the 2019 elections as a model, here's the results:

2020 Azores election projection, using the 2019 general election results:

Vote share % and seats: (29 needed for a majority)

40.1% PS, 28/29 seats (-1/-2)
30.2% PSD, 19/20 (0/+1)
   8.0% BE, 4 (+2)
   4.8% CDS, 2 (-2)
   2.7% PAN, 1 (+1)
   2.4% CDU, 1 (nc)
   0.9% Livre, 0
   0.9% Alliance, 0
   0.8% CHEGA, 0
   0.7% IL, 0
   0.5% PPM, 1 (nc)
   8.0% Others/Invalid

36.5% Turnout
  
PS wins 8 islands
PSD wins 1 island  

Using these results, the PS could hold on or lose their majority by the slimmest of margins. It all depends on the Compensation' 5 seats, as both PS and PSD will fight for one seat, according to my analysis of the 2019 results

But, again, the Covid-19 management could affect voting intentions as Azores is one of the least hit regions of the country. I would like to hear Crals opinion as he is from the Azores and has a more in depth knowledge of Azorean politics.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 19, 2020, 06:48:45 PM
Some political developments:

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, was fired from his commentary spot on CMTV:



CHEGA leader, André Ventura, was fired, or rather, dismissed from CMTV. The news was reported by Visão magazine and it was confirmed by the channel and Ventura. The news is surprising many as CMTV was one of the places where Ventura gained notoriety, first as a fierce defender of Benfica and later as a political leader. CMTV, a news channel focused on crimes, controversies and gotcha reports, has said this decision is a editorial one, while Ventura says he's with good terms with CMTV and that he was always very happy there.

Also, PSD leader, Rui Rio, is once again criticizing the government support for the media to buy publicity. A total of 15 million euros will be given to several media outlets, with SIC and TVI receiving 7 million euros. 75% of the funds will go to national media and 25% to regional media. But Rio is criticizing the government support as it is discriminatory and, according to him, media outlets are as important as factories and other businesses.


Quote
€ 15 million in taxes to help pay for the morning shows and Big Brothers, that came back in force. I have been attacked so much because I do not understand this democratic urgency.

Covid-19: SIC and TVI with the largest share of media support with more than 3 ME each

The PS is also in some tension after former MEP Ana Gomes announced she is considering running for President in 2021. The PS deputy secretary general has called as unacceptable Ana Gomes criticisms that democracy in the PS is suspended, as the PS chairman, Carlos César, said that maybe the PS congress, that should have been held in early May, could be postponed until after the Presidential elections. Many PS members are also upset with this delay, but the deputy PS secretary said that the Presidential matter will be discussed and that there are no tabu matters in the PS.


Quote
PS board considers Ana Gomes' criticisms of internal democracy "unacceptable"


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: crals on May 24, 2020, 01:51:00 PM
Early summary of the Azores regional elections, to be held on late September/mid October:

Polls in Azores are quite rare as it is very difficult to poll because of the big population disparity in the region, but in the last few elections the PSD has polled around 30% almost always, PS polls around 40%, but here's the doubt as they can rise to 44% or more and secure their majority. The Covid-19 management of the regional government can also favour incumbency. CDS seems to be losing steam and could be surpassed by BE, in my opinion. CDU could drop to sixth place and PAN will likely win a seat this time. PPM will hold their seat in Corvo. I believe no other party will receive enough votes to elect seats.

Using the 2019 elections as a model, here's the results:

2020 Azores election projection, using the 2019 general election results:

Vote share % and seats: (29 needed for a majority)

40.1% PS, 28/29 seats (-1/-2)
30.2% PSD, 19/20 (0/+1)
   8.0% BE, 4 (+2)
   4.8% CDS, 2 (-2)
   2.7% PAN, 1 (+1)
   2.4% CDU, 1 (nc)
   0.9% Livre, 0
   0.9% Alliance, 0
   0.8% CHEGA, 0
   0.7% IL, 0
   0.5% PPM, 1 (nc)
   8.0% Others/Invalid

36.5% Turnout
  
PS wins 8 islands
PSD wins 1 island  

Using these results, the PS could hold on or lose their majority by the slimmest of margins. It all depends on the Compensation' 5 seats, as both PS and PSD will fight for one seat, according to my analysis of the 2019 results

But, again, the Covid-19 management could affect voting intentions as Azores is one of the least hit regions of the country. I would like to hear Crals opinion as he is from the Azores and has a more in depth knowledge of Azorean politics.
As elsewhere in the country, it's all about Covid at the moment, and the regional government is perceived to be handling the situation well. But even regardless of that a PS victory is once again not really in doubt.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 26, 2020, 09:03:35 AM
As elsewhere in the country, it's all about Covid at the moment, and the regional government is perceived to be handling the situation well. But even regardless of that a PS victory is once again not really in doubt.

Yes, a PS victory isn't really in doubt, even if the PSD candidate is much well more known than the previous PSD leader from the 2016 election. My hunch is that turnout could be historically low and that this would make the election as a competition on who can get the most faithfull to vote, although the PS has an overwhelming edge that the PSD cannot overcome.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 28, 2020, 05:53:43 AM
2021 local elections: PSD and PS will only start choosing candidates in early 2021.

Both PSD and PS have announced that they will only start choosing candidates for the 2021 local elections during early the same year. The media is reporting that the PSD leader, Rui Rio, met with the district party leaders and set up a timetable (https://www.publico.pt/2020/05/27/politica/noticia/psd-so-devera-candidatos-autarquicos-partir-janeiro-2021-1918344) in which the party will choose and announce candidates starting in January 2021. The PS was forced to sent a press release after Público newspaper reported that some PS candidates would be announced by August. The PS said that no candidates will be announced this year and all preparations will be done only in 2021. (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1484748/ps-nega-que-escolha-de-candidatos-as-autarquicas-ja-esteja-em-curso) They added that right now the party is focused in the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic and social impacts.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 28, 2020, 12:00:43 PM
A Eurosondagem poll, commissioned by CHEGA, has the party at 4.3%, bellow other polling firms:  (https://semanariov.pt/2020/05/24/pais-ps-no-topo-e-chega-triplica-a-votacao-utrapassando-cds-e-pan-segundo-estudo-de-opiniao/)

Vote share %:

37.9% PS
30.0% PSD
   ?.?% BE*
   ?.?% CDU*
  4.3% CHEGA
  3.2% CDS
  2.2% PAN
   ?.?% IL*

*Polling numbers for BE, CDU and IL were not released.

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 May 2020. Polled 2,120 voters. MoE of 2.13%

Not a very positive poll for CHEGA, as they paid for it and one that has the PSD achieving one of their best numbers in a poll in almost 4 years.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 30, 2020, 07:33:59 AM
Costa hires a CEO of an oil company, Partex, to design the economic plan due to the Covid-19 pandemic:  (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/antonio-costa-chama-presidente-da-partex-para-negociar-plano-de-recuperacao-da-economia-595028)


Quote
Government asks Partex CEO to design recovery plan

The media is reporting, today, that PM António Costa has hired a CEO of an oil company, Partex, to draft the economic plan due to the Covid-19 pandemic. According to Expresso newspaper, António Costa Silva has already met with ministers to ask for ideas for the plan and is expected to met with party leaders also. Currently the CEO of Partex, an oil company that was bought by a Thai public company in late 2019, Mr Costa Silva will leave the post of CEO quite soon, according to the media. Mr Costa Silva regularly writes op-ed's in newspapers and sometimes aligns with Costa but was very critical of the decision of the government to drop natural exploration in the Algarve, as he accused the government of "being influenced by extremists".

However, on the left, some parties are criticizing Costa for this move. BE leader, Catarina Martins, says she refuses to met with Mr Costa Silva as he isn't a minister or member of the government. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/be-so-negoceia-planos-de-retoma-com-o-governo_a1233078)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 30, 2020, 02:58:11 PM
Only the PSD is willing to sit down with Costa's new economic adviser. BE, CDU and CDS refuse to meet with a "non-minister".  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/bloco-so-negoceia-com-membros-do-governo-e-rejeita-existencia-de-paraministros-12258487.html)

The hiring, by the government, of a CEO of an oil company to draft an economic plan for Portugal for the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic is creating some stir in parties. As of now, only the PSD is willing to meet with the new adviser, although they argue the hiring is "a surprise" and that he has no experience in government affairs and how things work in politics. The PSD also believes António Costa Silva will be a minister very soon.

The rest of the main parties are refusing to meet with António Costa Silva. BE says they will not meet with someone not in government, CDU says that they will only discuss economic plans with the proper people, and CDS says basically the same, saying they will discuss with "the government, not someone who talks for the government".


Quote
Costa Silva says he is working "pro bono" for the government. And that integrating it is "speculation"

In remarks to ECO newspaper, Mr Costa Silva says he was invited by the PM to draft a plan for the economy, and that it will take months. He said that any idea of him joining Costa's cabinet is "pure speculation". He also added he is working pro-bono for the government, as a citizen helping his country, and that he will only leave the post of CEO of Partex in 2021.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 31, 2020, 06:17:40 AM
Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-intencao-de-voto-para-as-eleicoes-legislativas-12259885.html)

Vote share %:

44.8% PS (+2.9)
24.1% PSD (+1.0)
   6.4% CHEGA (-0.9)
   6.1% BE (-2.0)
   5.8% CDU (+0.2)
   3.3% PAN (+0.7)
   2.8% CDS (+0.2)
   1.6% IL (-1.0)
   5.1% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 16 and 24 May 2020. Polled 802 voters. MoE of 3.53%.

First time ever that CHEGA polls third and first time, in more than 4 years, that BE falls to 4th place.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: CumbrianLefty on May 31, 2020, 07:26:49 AM
A bit of a contrast with those last two polls you have quoted, any possible reason?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on May 31, 2020, 08:00:38 AM
A bit of a contrast with those last two polls you have quoted, any possible reason?

I believe it's more about the methodology of each polling company. Eurosondagem has always been very favourable to either PS and PSD, and less to smaller parties. Also, Eurosondagem doesn't have a very good reputation in terms of polls predicting election outcomes. Their polling method is very stiff and there's always very small shifts between parties in their polls. Pitagórica is more reliable, it was one of the most on spot polling company in the 2019 elections, but is prone to big shifts from one poll to another, unlike Eurosondagem.

That's my take but, however, there are some trends that are consistent: PS continues to experience a "rally around the flag" effect; PSD seems to be holding to their ground by not losing support; BE is losing a lot of support, all 3 recent polls have BE falling; CHEGA seems to have stalled at around 6%; CDU is stuck also at around 6%. CDS, PAN and IL seem to not be making any breakthrough. Livre and Alliance are gone.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 03, 2020, 10:28:00 AM
PSD unveils their economic plan for the post Covid-19 economy:


Quote
PSD: PSD proposes capitalization of companies and more "Autoeuropas" to relaunch the economy

The PSD unveiled, today, a series of policies from their economic plan for the post Covid-19 economy. In order to restore the economy, the Social Democrats want foreign and private investments to be the motor of the economic recovery and for that they propose corporate tax cuts, and attract big companies, like the Volkswagen "Autoeuropa", in the tech and green sector to invest and create companies and jobs in Portugal via tax breaks. The main policies are the following:

- Capitalization of companies by many ways, State and private;
- Ease fusion of small and medium size companies;
- Corporate tax cut to 17%;
- Reduction of rents for commercial spaces;
- Attract big companies to invest in Portugal from the tech, pharmaceutical and green energy;
- Creation of the Development Bank with a billion euros to invest;

The government will also present tomorrow a series of policies for the economic recovery.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 04, 2020, 04:57:47 PM
PM Costa announces economic policies for companies and families:


Quote
State will pay between 100 to 351 euros to workers who lost income

António Costa announced, today, a series of policies for families and companies after a cabinet meeting. The plan, called Economic and Social Stabilization Program, aims to create financial supports for families who lost income. Some other policies like investment in the NHS, Education and public works are also included. The main policies are the following:

- Stabilization complement for workers in "lay-off", where work hours are cut, for workers earning until 1,270 euros per month. The support will go from 100 to 351 euros;
- Extra family allowance for children in families with lowest earning;
- Extension of social unemployment benefits until December;
- Extension of a mortgage on credit moratoriums and creation of a moratorium on health credit;
- Increase of protection for independent and cultural sector workers;
- 400 million euros investment in "digital schooling", in order to buy computers, dematerialization of contents and ensure homeschooling to all regions and all families;
- Hiring of 2,700 new health workers and the regularization of another 2,800 health workers;
- Expansion of ICU beds to 11,5 beds per 100,000 inhabitants til the end of the year;
- Creation of a development bank;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Pericles on June 04, 2020, 05:27:18 PM
Portugal seems to have done relatively well against coronavirus, especially compared to Spain. So the government reacted earlier than the Spanish one? And has there been a big polling bump? That poll you posted seems like a big swing from the last election, but overall it doesn't look like it has changed much.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 04, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Portugal seems to have done relatively well against coronavirus, especially compared to Spain. So the government reacted earlier than the Spanish one? And has there been a big polling bump? That poll you posted seems like a big swing from the last election, but overall it doesn't look like it has changed much.

No question about that. Although there's concern, currently, of what's happening in Lisbon, contrary to the rest of the country, the situation never seemed out of control or anything like Spain. The government acted early, but even before the government took several confinement measures, people were already preparing themselves with many parents refusing to let their kids go to school and many businesses putting into practice teleworking. The fact that Portugal was one of the last countries in Europe to have the virus helped, plus the broad political support for the government to enact measures like closing borders or calling the state of emergency also helped.

Costa is enjoying a considerable bump in the polls, as he was polling quite badly before March. Compared with the 2019 elections, and if you average the polls, the PS has a 4.6% bump, while the PSD drops around 2.8%. But, on the left, the PS is eating up a lot of support from BE, which is making CHEGA rise to 3rd place, at least in one poll. But the trend is consistent in the transfer of votes from BE to PS. PSD isn't dropping a lot, and in some polls is even recovering some ground.

The main differences between now and the last election isn't in the 2 major parties, but rather in the smaller parties with the BE fall, like I explained above, the eruption of CHEGA, the management of decline of CDU and the colapse of CDS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 06, 2020, 06:22:24 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:  (https://www.dnoticias.pt/impressa/hemeroteca/diario-de-noticias/chega-aproxima-se-da-cdu-cds-afunda-se-KK6387590)

Vote share %:

38.0% PS (+0.3)
29.3% PSD (-0.1)
  8.0% BE (-0.3)
  5.3% CDU (-0.2)
  4.1% CHEGA (+0.1)
  3.0% PAN (+0.5)
  2.7% CDS (-0.3) 
  1.1% IL (-0.1)
  8.5% Others/Invalid (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 1 and 4 June 2020. Polled 1,021 voters. MoE of 3.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 06, 2020, 12:47:26 PM
More data from the Eurosondagem poll:  (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/mais-de-50-dos-portugueses-quer-que-centeno-continue-no-governo-597936)

Q1: Do you think Mário Centeno should stay on as minister or go the Bank of Portugal?

55.5% Stay on as minister
25.2% Go to the Bank of Portugal
19.3% Undecided

Q2: How do you rate the support António Costa gave for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa' reelection?

69.0% Good
21.0% Wrong
10.0% Undecided/Don't care

Poll conducted between 1 and 4 June 2020. Polled 1,021 voters. MoE of 3.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 07, 2020, 05:04:05 PM
PCP held the first rally since the State of Emergency was lifted:


Quote
PCP rally at the top of Edward VII park, Lisbon

With the participation of Jerónimo de Sousa, Secretary General of the PCP


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 08, 2020, 09:34:53 AM
The political fallout of Saturday's anti-racism demonstrations in Lisbon continues:

PSD leader, Rui Rio, criticized today the government for allowing "rallies and demonstrations of the leftwing" while funerals, bars and football matches have very strict rules. This criticism comes after last weekend' anti-racism demonstrations and PCP rally in Lisbon:


Quote
What is the Government' criteria to allow gatherings? Funerals, football, masses, discos, sports in general, no! Leftwing rallies and demonstrations, yes! Hopefully the virus understands what no one else can understand.

Many pundits and commentators are indeed criticizing the government for their inconsistent rules in terms of public gatherings, which creates uncomfortable situations, like last Saturday's demonstration which put health official really concerned. The approval of the PCP summer festival in September, while other summer festivals were canceled, continues, also, to create a big amount controversy. Nonetheless, Rio is being criticized for painting last Saturday' demonstration as "leftwing" as many argue that the issue is nonpartisan.

Police associations and unions are also presenting complaints to the DA office to find and punish protesters that in Saturday's demonstrations held up sings against the police and that, according to the unions, encourage hatred towards the police:


Quote
"Good cop is dead cop": PSP union files complaint due to posters


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 08, 2020, 12:17:33 PM
Regional Government support in handling the Covid-19 crisis:

Azores (PS majority)  (http://www.erc.pt/pt/sondagens/publicitacao-de-sondagens/depositos-de-2020/estudo-de-opiniao-especial-acores)

Q: How do rate the Regional Government' measures to fight COVID19 and defend the Azores?

70.9% Very Good
15.2% Average
   9.1% Bad
  4.8% Undecided

Poll conducted by Eurosondagem between 17 and 19 May 2020. Polled 525 voters in Azores islands. MoE of 4.27%

Madeira (PSD/CDS coalition)  (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/sondagem-aximage-je-89-dos-madeirenses-aprovam-atuacao-do-governo-regional-durante-a-pandemia-598338)

Q: How do rate the Regional Government' handling of the Covid-19 crisis in Madeira?

89.1% Good/Very Good
  7.7% Average
   1.1% Bad/Very Bad
  2.1% Undecided

Poll conducted by Aximage between 1 and 2 June 2020. Polled 327 voters in Madeira islands.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 09, 2020, 06:34:53 AM
BREAKING NEWS: Mário Centeno resigns as Finance Minister. João Leão, current secretary of budget affairs, will be the new minister.


Quote
Mário Centeno leaves the Government. João Leão takes over Ministry of Finance

The Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman Mário Centeno has resigned from the government and will be replaced by João Leão, current secretary of budget affairs, on June 15. The news was confirmed by the government and will be announced publicly by António Costa with Mário Centeno on the platform also.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 09, 2020, 11:49:16 AM
More updates on Mário Centeno' resignation:

The number 2 and 3 of Centeno's team in the Finance ministry, the secretaries of finance and of the treasury, have also resigned. (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/centeno-mourinho-felix-e-alvaro-novo-regressam-ao-lugar-de-origem-no-bdp-599135)

Also, a curious vote happened today in Parliament. In today' afternoon, a vote to change the rules of nominating the governor of the Bank of Portugal creating a five-year break for government officials to transition to the Bank of Portugal (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/projetos-de-lei-aprovados-no-parlamento-nao-travam-centeno-no-banco-de-portugal), was approved by the PSD, BE, CDS, PAN, CHEGA and IL, while PS voted against. The new rules will not block Centeno's chances of being governor as the law will still go to a committee and then the final draft approved. A process that takes months, and the job of governor is up grabs during July this year.

Nonetheless, the timing of all of this is quite curious.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on June 09, 2020, 04:01:36 PM
BREAKING NEWS: Mário Centeno resigns as Finance Minister. João Leão, current secretary of budget affairs, will be the new minister.


Quote
Mário Centeno leaves the Government. João Leão takes over Ministry of Finance

The Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman Mário Centeno has resigned from the government and will be replaced by João Leão, current secretary of budget affairs, on June 15. The news was confirmed by the government and will be announced publicly by António Costa with Mário Centeno on the platform also.

What are the reasons for that decision?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 09, 2020, 04:59:18 PM

Well, that's the answer every wants to know. Reporters asked him and Costa but no answer was given. But, pundits and the media are giving a serious of reasons: the first is that he wanted to be remembered as the minister of the "1st budget surplus in democracy" and not for the economic fallout of the next months and/or years; another is that his relation with Costa was on the ropes and he was fed up in being in the government; the other is that he wants to become Governor of the Bank of Portugal, as he has a personal grudge against the incumbent governor, Carlos Costa.

But, perhaps, the real reason is a mix of all the reasons mentioned above. And, it's still to be seen if Centeno will be chosen as Governor of the Bank of Portugal. Many parties are against it, only PS and perhaps BE would support it, but, the choice of the Governor is exclusive to the PM and the government and Parliament, for the moment as the law will probably change, doesn't have a say.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 09, 2020, 05:43:23 PM
At the same time Centeno resigns from the government, the government has presented the Supplementary Budget for 2020, which is basically an emergency budget as the 2020 original budget was thrown into the garbage due to the Covid-19 pandemic.


Quote
The main measures of the Supplementary Budget proposal
Mário Centeno, in the center; João Leão, on the left of Centeno

The new budget was still presented by Mário Centeno and changes all the economic and fiscal forecasts for 2020 and 2021. The main data is the following:

GDP 2020: -6.9%
Debt 2020: 134.4%
Deficit 2020: -6.3%
Unemployment 2020: 9.6%
1,2 billion euros to bailout TAP airlines
500 million euros in NHS investments

This budget could to be approved by many parties from left to right: PSD is open to vote in favour, as BE and PCP, CDS and PAN are still undecided.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Pericles on June 09, 2020, 06:43:35 PM
What are the implications of the Finance Minister resigning? Are there any policy differences between him and the new person?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 09, 2020, 07:09:11 PM
What are the implications of the Finance Minister resigning? Are there any policy differences between him and the new person?

Like I said above, the reasons for his resignation aren't fully clear yet, but many possibilities are out there. Now, this Centeno departure has very important implications. Like him or not, Centeno did one thing that until now no one did: re-brand the PS as a competent party in terms of fiscal issues. Until then, the PS was always seen as very incompetent in fiscal and budget issues, while the PSD was the responsible one. Centeno change that and helped Costa and the PS in cleaning their really bad reputation. And because of this, Centeno was very popular from left to right, in some polls he was just behind Rui Rio in terms of popularity in the PSD electorate, for example. Therefore, the PS and Costa lose a very important piece in the "fiscal responsibility" card, however, the new minister, João Leão, seems to be very similar to Centeno and he was part of his team, as he led the team that drafted the budgets. The new minister was also the supervisor of the controversial, but also a bit unpopular, budget captivations.

Now, there are some pundits that are criticizing the timing of all of this, as in "is it wise for a popular minister, like Centeno, to abandon the ship in these troubling times?" How the electorate sees all of this is also unclear, will they be upset by Centeno' departure and punish the PS? Or will they see a continuity in João Leão and trust Costa' handling of this change? We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 12, 2020, 11:28:43 AM
Parties react to the vandalism of Father António Vieira statue in Lisbon:


Quote
PCP condemns vandalism, CDS blames extreme left and Chega wants deterrence team

Political parties are reacting to the vandalism of Father António Vieira statue in Lisbon, as it has become a major political story. During yesterday morning, the word "Decolonization" was sprayed in the statue and many parts of the statue were also sprayed. Lisbon city hall rapidly cleaned the statue and criticized who did this. And parties are weighing in: PCP is hoping that this act doesn't spark racist clashes, while CDS is blaming the extreme left for this vandalism and that they are no different from the vandals of ISIS that destroyed the city of Palmira. CHEGA on the other hand is proposing the creation of a special branch of the police to crack down these kind of actions, adding that the people who did this to the statue are motivated by an international movement that has no attachment to the Portuguese reality.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, although didn't spoke about the issue, posted on twitter an article of an Expresso newspaper columnist entitled "Leave the statues alone".  (https://expresso.pt/opiniao/2020-06-12-Deixem-as-estatuas-em-paz-1)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Farmlands on June 12, 2020, 01:48:12 PM
During yesterday morning, the word "Decolonization" was sprayed in the statue and many parts of the statue were also sprayed.

This is so stupid, Father António Vieira was a defender of Jewish people, slaves and the opressed, who frequently spoke out against colonisation and the evils of the Inquisition. Just because he was a priest in the medieval times doesn't mean he's a symbol of the powerful and opression.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 12, 2020, 05:29:53 PM
During yesterday morning, the word "Decolonization" was sprayed in the statue and many parts of the statue were also sprayed.

This is so stupid, Father António Vieira was a defender of Jewish people, slaves and the opressed, who frequently spoke out against colonisation and the evils of the Inquisition. Just because he was a priest in the medieval times doesn't mean he's a symbol of the powerful and opression.

Indeed. If you know just a minimum of the history of Portugal, you know that all of this is ridiculous. Expresso newspaper says that the police believes that a far left group may be behind this.  (https://expresso.pt/sociedade/2020-06-12-Padre-Antonio-Vieira.-Investigado-tweet-que-incentivou-a-destruicao-de-estatua)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 13, 2020, 10:45:22 AM
PS plans to obstruct the new law that creates "a disgust period" for former cabinet members to be nominated as members of the Bank of Portugal:


Quote
Future of Mário Centeno. PS wants to delay bill that prevents government from going to BdP

Parties approved last week, curiously on the same day Mário Centeno resigned, a bill that forbides any cabinet member to go to the Bank of Portugal for a period of time after leaving cabinet. The number approved was 5 years, but PSD leader, Rui Rio, said that the number was too high and PAN, the party who drafted the bill, is willing to lower the number and reach a deal with the PSD. At first, the bill wouldn't be ready by next July when the nomination process of a new governor starts, but the parties that passed the new law want to speed up the process. But, the PS wants to block the process. According to Expresso newspaper, PM António Costa expressly ordered to block the bill in order for Mário Centeno to be governor by mid July. PAN is already criticizing the PS for obstructing Parliament.  (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1507469/pan-disponivel-para-reduzir-periodo-de-nojo-para-bdp)

The PS plans to obstruct the bill by delaying the works by asking committees to hear experts, and the advise of the ECB.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 15, 2020, 09:20:10 AM
New finance minister sworn in, but ceremony was overshadowed by Mário Centeno's future:


Quote
"Did Mario Centeno commit any crimes?" Costa does not understand the "persecution" of ex-minister

The new finance minister, João Leão, was sworn in today in the Presidential Palace. But the ceremony was completely overshadowed by the role Mário Centeno will have in the future. The PM criticized parties and Parliament for drafting a bill to specifically attack someone, adding that some parties want to punish Mário Centeno. He ironically said that the Covid-19 confinement maybe was bad for some people. He finalized by saying that Centeno has all the conditions to be a candidate for governor.

João Leão, new finance minister, was also asked about Centeno's future role, and Mr Leão said that Centeno would be an "excellent choice" for governor of the Bank of Portugal.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 16, 2020, 05:40:03 AM
Crisis in PAN: PAN' sole MEP, Francisco Guerreiro, leaves the party because of disagreements but will remain as a MEP.


Quote
PAN loses representation in the European Parliament. Francisco Guerreiro breaks with the party

PAN has lost their representation in the European Parliament. PAN's sole MEP, Francisco Guerreiro, has left the party due to "strong disagreements" with the party leadership, but will remain as an independent MEP until 2024. Mr Guerreiro adds that PAN's leadership has been limiting his actions as an MEP, and that the party has been breaking with their founding values, like being labeled as "leftwing" or by defending the military service for young people when, according to him, PAN is a pacifistic party. He will remain a MEP as an independent and caucus in the Greens–European Free Alliance.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 17, 2020, 04:55:17 PM
2020 supplementary budget passes only with the votes of the PS:


Quote
Supplementary Budget: Government avoids austerity, but hasn't stop doubts about TAP and Novo Banco

The 2020 supplementary budget was approved, in general, this afternoon. Only the PS voted in favour, as the majority of parties opted to abstain and only CDS, CHEGA and IL voted against. However, parties are expected to present several amendments to the final document.

The PSD opted to abstain although was very critical of the document, particularly because of the economic forecasts of the government, the TAP bailout and the Novo Banco' support from the government. The PS and the government said that no austerity or spending cuts will be done, arguing against the former PSD/CDS government strategy. The vote by parties was the following:

108 In favour (PS)
     7 Against (CDS, CHEGA, IL)
115 Abstention (PSD, BE, CDU, PAN, JKM)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 18, 2020, 06:59:13 AM
PAN seems to be losing more members:


Quote
They lost their only MEP and several municipal deputies. What is happening to PAN?

Quote
After the unexpected announcement of the departure of the only MEP that the party managed to elect, the municipal deputy of Cascais also announced that she was leaving the party. But there are more outlets in the PAN.

The municipal deputy from Cascais, that also left the party, is the wife of Francisco Guerreiro, recently former MEP from PAN now Independent. But there seems to be several other members leaving the party. The reasons seem to several for this crisis in the party: the non defense of the unconditional basic income; the way the party communicates as those who are leaving the party say it has become more radical and violent; and lack of debate and big centralization of decision in André Silva's leadership.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 19, 2020, 07:10:10 AM
A lot of polling released today:

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://www.pressreader.com/portugal/correio-da-manha/20200619/281612422653927)

Vote share %:

40.0% PS (-0.3)
24.1% PSD (+0.8 )
   9.8% BE (+0.8 )
   6.8% CHEGA (nc)
   6.2% CDU (+0.3)
   4.1% CDS (+0.5)  
   3.1% PAN (-0.5)
   1.9% IL (-1.3)
   0.8% Livre (+0.1)
   1.5% Others (+0.8 )
  1.7% Invalid/Blank (-1.2)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.7 António Costa (-0.1)
3.2 Rui Rio (-0.2)
3.2 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.9 André Silva (+0.2)
2.8 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
2.7 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (nc)
2.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.2 André Ventura (-0.1)
1.9 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 June 2020. Polled 610 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Aximage poll for JE newspaper:  (https://zap.aeiou.pt/duas-sondagens-deixam-ps-perto-maioria-330790)

Vote share %: (compared with the February poll)

39.9% PS (+4.8 )
25.8% PSD (-0.3)
   8.0% BE (+0.3)
   5.3% CHEGA (+1.0)
   4.9% CDU (-0.5)
   4.3% PAN (+0.2)
   1.4% IL (-1.1)
   1.2% CDS (-0.9)  
   0.2% Livre (-0.5)
   4.6% Others/Invalid (-2.1)
  4.5% Undecided (+0.8 )

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

15.9 António Costa (+5.5)
12.9 Rui Rio (+3.6)
11.1 Catarina Martins (+1.7)
   8.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.7)
   8.5 Jerónimo de Sousa (-1.2)
   8.5 André Silva (+1.0)
   7.6 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.2)
   6.5 André Ventura (-1.0)
  5.2 Joacine Katar Moreira (+1.7)

Preferred PM:

57.3% António Costa (+13.5)
18.2% Rui Rio (-3.6)

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 June 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Aximage poll on Madeira region for JE newspaper:  (https://www.jm-madeira.pt/regiao/ver/96201/Sondagem_poe_PSD-_Madeira__no_limiar_da_maioria_absoluta)

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 elections)

42.2% PSD (+2.8 )
27.5% PS (-8.3)
   2.3% CDS (-3.5)
   2.1% BE (+0.4)
   2.1% CDU (+0.3)
   9.6% Others/Invalid (-5.7)
14.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 June 2020. Polled 415 voters in the Madeira islands. MoE of 4.80%.

The Centeno resignation had no impact in the polling so far. And some curious notes: according with the Aximage poll, the PSD wins the young vote (18-34 years) with 33.2% to the PS' 27.8%, plus threre's a considerable gender gap with the PS barely winning men, 34.6% vs the PSD' 33.2%, but crushing among women, 44% vs the PSD' 20.1%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 19, 2020, 09:15:52 AM
Another interesting point from the polling released today:


Quote
Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 19, 2020, 08:25:19 PM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers on the 2021 Presidential election:  (https://www.dnoticias.pt/impressa/hemeroteca/diario-de-noticias/albuquerque-nao-convence-na-corrida-a-belem-ED6445071)

Vote share % for possible candidates: (compared with the previous poll)

69.6% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.1)
  7.2% André Ventura (+1.7)
  6.9% Ana Gomes (-1.5)
  6.9% Marisa Matias (-0.3)
  4.8% Arménio Carlos (-0.4)
  2.5% Miguel Albuquerque (new)
  2.1% Adolfo Mesquita Nunes (new)

Poll conducted between 15 and 18 June 2020. Polled 1,072 voters. MoE of 2.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 20, 2020, 11:10:19 AM
Another interesting point from the polling released today:


Quote
Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: VPH on June 20, 2020, 11:43:39 AM
Another interesting point from the polling released today:


Quote
Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.
They were already in freefall and then CHEGA stole their thunder. The lane of "socially conservative but not right-wing populist" is really tiny as they get squeezed from PSD and CHEGA on both sides. And then IL is pushing the economic-right message more effectively than CDS-PP ever could.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 20, 2020, 12:19:04 PM
Another interesting point from the polling released today:


Quote
Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.
They were already in freefall and then CHEGA stole their thunder. The lane of "socially conservative but not right-wing populist" is really tiny as they get squeezed from PSD and CHEGA on both sides. And then IL is pushing the economic-right message more effectively than CDS-PP ever could.

Polls can differ a bit, for example, Intercampus poll has CDS rising to 4%, basically what they got in 2019, but, nonetheless, it's a really bad result for the party. CDS is being squeezed by CHEGA and in some extent from PSD, as the more conservative voters are leaving for CHEGA while the more moderate are going for the usefull vote in the PSD against the PS. Plus, CDS seems that is always reacting not acting as they have very poor initiatives and are in a battle with CHEGA for their place on the right. Now, the problem is that CDS is becoming a copy of CHEGA and no one goes for the copy as they preffer the original.

But this creates a big difficulty for the center-right bloc in the future. Absolute majorities in Portugal's current party system are basically impossible. If the PS didn't get one in 2019, you can see the difficulty. So, this creates a problem for the PSD as they see that the only way they can get into power in the future is by negotiating with CHEGA, as IL isn't growing and CDS is collapsing. Even if in a future election, the right bloc gets a majority, it's unclear if there could be a stable pact if CHEGA becomes the dominant party on the right of the PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: VPH on June 21, 2020, 09:08:33 AM
Another interesting point from the polling released today:


Quote
Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.
They were already in freefall and then CHEGA stole their thunder. The lane of "socially conservative but not right-wing populist" is really tiny as they get squeezed from PSD and CHEGA on both sides. And then IL is pushing the economic-right message more effectively than CDS-PP ever could.

Polls can differ a bit, for example, Intercampus poll has CDS rising to 4%, basically what they got in 2019, but, nonetheless, it's a really bad result for the party. CDS is being squeezed by CHEGA and in some extent from PSD, as the more conservative voters are leaving for CHEGA while the more moderate are going for the usefull vote in the PSD against the PS. Plus, CDS seems that is always reacting not acting as they have very poor initiatives and are in a battle with CHEGA for their place on the right. Now, the problem is that CDS is becoming a copy of CHEGA and no one goes for the copy as they preffer the original.

But this creates a big difficulty for the center-right bloc in the future. Absolute majorities in Portugal's current party system are basically impossible. If the PS didn't get one in 2019, you can see the difficulty. So, this creates a problem for the PSD as they see that the only way they can get into power in the future is by negotiating with CHEGA, as IL isn't growing and CDS is collapsing. Even if in a future election, the right bloc gets a majority, it's unclear if there could be a stable pact if CHEGA becomes the dominant party on the right of the PSD.

Yeah, this analysis makes a lot of sense. I worry about what happens if CHEGA gets an actual say in government policy. They're already pushing the overton window of Portuguese politics with 1 MP... Doesn't help that they obtain such an outsized proportion of media coverage.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: CumbrianLefty on June 21, 2020, 09:38:58 AM
Aximage poll on Madeira region for JE newspaper: [/url]

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 elections)

42.2% PSD (+2.8 )
27.5% PS (-8.3)
   2.3% CDS (-3.5)
   2.1% BE (+0.4)
   2.1% CDU (+0.3)
   9.6% Others/Invalid (-5.7)
14.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 June 2020. Polled 415 voters in the Madeira islands. MoE of 4.80%.

The Centeno resignation had no impact in the polling so far. And some curious notes: according with the Aximage poll, the PSD wins the young vote (18-34 years) with 33.2% to the PS' 27.8%, plus threre's a considerable gender gap with the PS barely winning men, 34.6% vs the PSD' 33.2%, but crushing among women, 44% vs the PSD' 20.1%.

Quite a big swing against PS since last year, any possible reason?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 21, 2020, 11:29:20 AM
Quite a big swing against PS since last year, any possible reason?

The Madeira regional government has managed really well the pandemic, as Madeira is the only region of the country with no deaths and just 2 or 3 active cases as of today. Plus, the regional government is persuing measures, like in airports, to tightly control who enters in the islands, for example, someone who enters in Madeira has to do a test for Covid-19 that is fully paid by the government, then they wait a day for the results and if it's negative they can go out and explore the islands as normal, but if it's positive they are put in quarantine. The same is also done in Azores, I believe, but not in the rest of the country. So, this good management of the pandemic is helping the PSD, and hurting the PS. Plus, the PS-Madeira is in a process to choose a new leader and their opposition is still not very stable.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 21, 2020, 06:19:49 PM
Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the 2021 presidential election:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/sondagens-dao-segundo-mandato-a-marcelo-sem-dar-luta?ref=HP_BlocoTematico6)

Vote share %:

62.6% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.9)
10.8% Ana Gomes (+2.6)
   9.8% André Ventura (+2.4)
   5.4% Marisa Matias (+1.0)
   3.3% Jerónimo de Sousa (+1.2)
   2.8% Paulo Portas (new)
   4.1% Others/None
  1.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 June 2020. Polled 610 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 23, 2020, 11:41:05 AM
TAP airlines bailout: Court accepts judicial order by the Commercial Association of Porto to block the State injection of 1.2 billion euros in TAP airlines.


Quote
Court accepts precautionary measure from Porto Commercial Association and paralyzes State capital injection in TAP

The Supreme Administrative Court has accepted the judicial order delivered by the Commercial Association of Porto to block the State injection of 1.2 billion euros in TAP airlines. The Court will now analyze the order and will ask the State to defend themselves and will also ask the State to provide several non public documents in order to make a decision. Any negotiations for the loan are completely frozen until the Court takes a decision. The Commercial Association of Porto persued this legal action against the State because, according to them, TAP is too much concentrated in Lisbon creating a "territorial imbalance", that TAP is a private company and should find other ways to finance and that if the State will inject billion in the airline, the State should honour taxpayers by providing a service of national dimensions, contrary to the current situation.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 24, 2020, 09:29:29 AM
Crisis in PAN continues: PAN branch in Madeira is dissolved as all members leave the party.


Quote
PAN Madeira dissolves with criticism of the national leadership

The leadership of PAN-Madeira has left the party and has basically dissolved the party in the islands as other party members in the region are also leaving the party. The now former members of PAN are criticizing heavily the national leadership, by André Silva, labeling the leadership as intolerant with different ideas, heavily concentrated in just a few people and that, in the case of Madeira, constantly persues policies against the interests of Madeira.

PAN national leadership has already responded by attacking their former members of trying to hide their "huge political incompetence" as the results of the 2019 elections in Madeira were proof.

But, the feud between André Silva and PAN' former MEP, Francisco Guerreiro, continues to make headlines in the press.


Quote
The discussion between André Silva and Francisco Guerreiro that precipitated his exit and revealed cases of false green receipts in the PAN

According to Observador newspaper, PAN leader, André Silva, and Francisco Guerreiro had an ugly exchange of words in a party meeting, in late May 2020, in which several bad practices in PAN were disclosed. Several party aides on Parliament were being paid by Lisbon city hall in the form of green receipts, independent workers who collaborate with a company without a work contract, but these aides never set foot in Lisbon city hall. The problem is that PAN is against these kind of practices but it seems they are used inside the party. According to newspaper, party members in the meeting were shocked by the revelations.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 25, 2020, 06:40:03 AM
More crisis in PAN: Party loses an MP and its caucus is reduced to 3 MPs


Quote
Another resignation in PAN. MP Cristina Rodrigues leaves the party

MP Cristina Rodrigues, elected from Setúbal district, has left PAN and will become an independent MP alongside Joacine Katar Moreira. This is another blow to PAN as the party is facing a wave of resignations and departures from the party due to the leadership of Andre Silva. Ms Rodrigues accuses the party leadership of silencing her and of blocking her work in Parliament. She also adds that the party' rhetoric has become very radical and too aggressive.

Is PAN becoming a Livre 2.0? We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 25, 2020, 09:53:32 AM
CHEGA will hold a "Portugal isn't racist" rally next Saturday, even though the Covid-19 virus is surging in Lisbon.


Quote
CHEGA maintains Saturday demonstration and expects 1,500 participants.

CHEGA party is expected to hold a rally in Lisbon, next Saturday, called "Portugal isn't racist". Even though the Covid-19 virus is surging in the Lisbon area, the party has announced it will hold the rally and expects around 1,500 people to show up. The party has already sent letters to Lisbon city hall and to the Interior minister announcing the rally and that all safety precautions will be met. The party has also met with the police to make the arrangements. But, CHEGA leader André Ventura had to distance himself from the intentions of several far-right groups that wanted to join the rally. Ventura had to say that CHEGA is against any violent movement that doesn't respect democracy.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 25, 2020, 02:32:31 PM
António Costa nominates Mário Centeno as governor of the Bank of Portugal:


Quote
Government puts Centeno ahead of the Bank of Portugal

PM António Costa informed Parliament, today, that he will nominate the former finance minister Mário Centeno as the next governor of the bank of Portugal. This nomination was expected, but a bill proposed by PAN could had blocked Centeno but the PS asked for a feedback from the ECB and that delayed the bill for more than a month, paving the way for Centeno nomination. PSD has also said it is totally against the nomination but it can't and won't stop it. All other parties are also against Centeno' nomination, only the PS says yes.

A recent poll, by Intercampus for CMTV/CM newspaper, showed that the electorate is divided on Centeno' nomination as governor of the Bank of Portugal:  (https://zap.aeiou.pt/leao-ainda-incognita-para-portugueses-331413)

Q: Do you think Mário Centeno should be Governor of the Bank of Portugal?

51.8% Yes
48.2% No

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 June 2020. Polled 610 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: CumbrianLefty on June 25, 2020, 05:44:09 PM
CHEGA will hold a "Portugal isn't racist" rally next Saturday, even though the Covid-19 virus is surging in Lisbon.

Portugal isn't racist........but we are?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 26, 2020, 06:10:28 AM

But this creates a big difficulty for the center-right bloc in the future. Absolute majorities in Portugal's current party system are basically impossible. If the PS didn't get one in 2019, you can see the difficulty. So, this creates a problem for the PSD as they see that the only way they can get into power in the future is by negotiating with CHEGA, as IL isn't growing and CDS is collapsing. Even if in a future election, the right bloc gets a majority, it's unclear if there could be a stable pact if CHEGA becomes the dominant party on the right of the PSD.

I mean, it is not that hard to imagine an scenario where CHEGA props up a PSD minority government?

Granted Deputy PM Andre Ventura is a lot harder to imagine, but a minority government propped up by CHEGA is a lot more likely.

If PSD+CHEGA get a majority (but not PSD+CDS and IL), I am sure PSD would probably get into government. It would not be perfect but it would be stable enough.

The question would be whether some moderate conservatives do defect for PS in that case (and of course whether PS moderates to try and coopt PSD from the center)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: CumbrianLefty on June 26, 2020, 06:40:54 AM
So there is no "cordon sanitaire" around CHEGA as there is with many similar European FR parties?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 26, 2020, 09:45:51 AM
So there is no "cordon sanitaire" around CHEGA as there is with many similar European FR parties?

I mean, it is not that hard to imagine an scenario where CHEGA props up a PSD minority government?

Granted Deputy PM Andre Ventura is a lot harder to imagine, but a minority government propped up by CHEGA is a lot more likely.

If PSD+CHEGA get a majority (but not PSD+CDS and IL), I am sure PSD would probably get into government. It would not be perfect but it would be stable enough.

The question would be whether some moderate conservatives do defect for PS in that case (and of course whether PS moderates to try and coopt PSD from the center)

There is a informal "cordon sanitaire" around CHEGA. No party aligns with them and all want distance. However, the relation between PSD and CHEGA is, right now, almost nonexistent. If in the beginning, a few months ago, PSD and CHEGA held some meetings to see what common ground there was between them, since then communications between both parties ceased. If fact, PSD has adopted a strategy of ignoring everything CHEGA does and says, for example, everytime Ventura says something controversial there is a huge backlash from the media, the left and some on the right, but PSD and Rio basically don't comment and ignore it. It's like the PSD is saying "he's always in the headlines because you keep talking about him".

Now, is there common ground between PSD and CHEGA if in the future, or in the next elections, they are forced to talk? Maybe, but it would be uncomfortable with the current data. CHEGA would not be part of a government as they are not prepared yet, although many of the people advising Ventura are people that left the PSD and some from the PS. PSD and CHEGA would probably reach agreements in the economic/fiscal front as both defend liberal conservatism, but the big "wall" would be social issues as the PSD is very liberal and Rio is in favour of abortion, gay marriage/adoption, euthanasia, legalization of prostitution, etc, and CHEGA is against all of this. Plus, personal relations are important here, as Rio doesn't like Ventura one bit.

However, we don't know how will CHEGA evolve. Ventura has a problem, right now, with far-right groups that are infiltrating CHEGA and although they are very small, they can make big damages in the party, and Ventura, could, in the future need to moderate his tone to turn CHEGA into a government party. The CDS had this evolution in the 90's, where after the 1991 PSD landslide, they turn to the right and became anti-Europe, very hostile towards minorities, etc and basically terminated their relation with the PSD. Some historic CDS members even left the party for the PSD. But, in the late 90's the party was deeply divided on their political standing and the more moderate wing, led by Paulo Portas, won and started to change the image of the party and became, once again, closer to the PSD. CHEGA could find it self divided in the future between those who want to persue a more moderate stand to be closer to power and those who want to continue a more aggressive tone. By then, they would have to make a decision.

Curiously, in the last few days, a political investigator in a Lisbon University, Riccardo Marchi, published a book about CHEGA and its foundation and organization:


Quote
"Chega is a party with a face but no spine"

In the book he says that CHEGA is still to associated with the image of André Ventura and doesn't have a "spine" or structure even though it has around 10,000 members. It's still a young party that is still, you can say, having their teeth born. He also talks about the feuds on the far-right and their infiltration in CHEGA, like I talked above. An interesting interview to understand what could be the future of the Portuguese right.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 27, 2020, 05:35:54 PM
More than 1,000 people attended CHEGA' "Portugal isn't racist" march and rally in Lisbon:  (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/politica/2020-06-27-chega-promete-voltar-a-rua-contra-a-esquerda-e-para-substituir-a-direita-tradicional/)


Quote
Hundreds of people parade in Lisbon at the Chega demonstration.

More than 1,000 people attended the "Portugal isn't racist" march and rally in Lisbon, organized by CHEGA. André Ventura led the march that started in the Marquis of Pombal square and ended in the Commerce Square in downtown Lisbon. In his speech, Ventura proclaimed himself as the heir of Francisco Sá Carneiro, former PM and PSD leader, as he is the only one, according to him, that is fighting for the country against the left. He also criticized Rio and CDS leader Francisco Rodrigo dos Santos for not attending the rally, saying that this is time to fight for the country, that according to him, is being humiliated and bent by the left.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 27, 2020, 06:00:11 PM
Health minister in danger? PM Costa called her a liar during the meeting between scientists and politicians last week:


Quote
Covid-19: Costa gets angry with Marta Temido and forced Marcelo to end meeting at Infarmed

It was a tense meeting the one held last week between politicians and scientists at Infarmed in Lisbon. The media is reporting that PM António Costa was quite upset during the whole meeting as specialists and scientists debunked every single theory about the surge of cases in the Lisbon area. Costa blamed the big amount of tests conducted and young people for the surge, but scientists said that doesn't explain nothing. But, Costa exploded when his Health minister, Marta Temido, was speaking and saying that the Portuguese people were put into lockdown to stop the virus. According to the press, Costa interrupted his minister, said what she was saying was a lie and that the country didn't went into full lockdown. Costa, visibly upset and angry according to sources, continued to lash out saying that if cases continue to grow it will not be his fault as no one is giving answers. Costa then abruptly ended the meeting at the dismay of the President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

On the next day, reporters asked the health minister about the tense meeting, and Ms Temido said if the PM criticized her then he was right. (https://zap.aeiou.pt/ministro-puxou-as-orelhas-ministra-teria-razao-temido-finta-polemica-costa-tera-cabeca-prazo-332159) Media outlets were quite stunned by this response and some are considering if Marta Temido could be in her way out of government very soon.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: crals on June 29, 2020, 10:32:29 AM
If PSD win the next election (and there's no left-wing majority) I don't think they even need to talk to Chega to form a government. Ventura won't get in the way of bringing down the Socialist government.

As for CDS, I think it would make more sense for them to form a joint list with IL as the parties to the right of PSD and to the left of Chega, but I don't see it happening either as they're on opposite sides of certain culture wars such as euthanasia and cannabis.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 30, 2020, 06:27:37 AM
TAP airlines: Negotiations between the government and private owners near collapse. Nationalization is on the table.


Quote
TAP: Privates reject the State's proposal for TAP

Negotiations are still ongoing but the private share owners of TAP, around 45%, seem to be rejecting the State's proposal in order to inject 1,2 billion euros to bailout the airline. However, there seems to be contradictory signs on what's happening as different media outlets are reporting the story differently. Expresso newspaper is reporting that negotiations have completely failed and that the nationalization of the airline will happen, while others like Público and Observador say that the nationalization is a public threat of the government to force the private owners to reach an agreement. We'll see how this plays out.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on June 30, 2020, 10:22:30 AM
If PSD win the next election (and there's no left-wing majority) I don't think they even need to talk to Chega to form a government. Ventura won't get in the way of bringing down the Socialist government.

As for CDS, I think it would make more sense for them to form a joint list with IL as the parties to the right of PSD and to the left of Chega, but I don't see it happening either as they're on opposite sides of certain culture wars such as euthanasia and cannabis.

Yes, CHEGA wouldn't stop a PSD government, but, like I said, it's still unclear if CHEGA will persue a "moderation" of their tone, although Ventura is holding on to the radical tone. A continuing radical tone from CHEGA, in a advent of a PSD government, wouldn't necessarily bring it down, but would create a lot of headaches to Rio, if he becomes PM.

About CDS, it's a party split down the middle. The current leader isn't unifying the party and the more moderate wing constantly criticizes him. If there's a change of leadership in the near future, like Adolfo Mesquita Nunes taking over CDS' leadership, CDS could become closer with IL and form some kind of alliance. The PSD would probably see with very good eyes this alliance, as it would give them an alternative rather than talking to CHEGA.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 01, 2020, 06:04:36 PM
PS and PSD agree to scrap biweekly PM Q&A debates and change it to monthly Q&A debates:


Quote
Parliament: PS agrees to pass monthly debates with the Prime Minister.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, presented a series of rules changes for Parliamentary procedures and one of them is to scrap the current biweekly PM Q&A debates and change it monthly one, as it was done prior to 2007. The PSD also proposes that Parliamentary committees should have non MPs in them, and that MPs should not evaluate incompatibilities and an Independent committee with non MPs should be created. The PS has accepted the proposal to reduced the PM Q&A debates from biweekly to monthly but is rejecting the other PSD proposals.

The changes could be implemented in the 2nd Parliament session after August 2020.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 02, 2020, 06:47:35 AM
TAP airlines nationalization aborted. Government and private owners seem to have reach an agreement at the last minute.


Quote
TAP. Check-in for nationalization? Flight canceled

TAP airlines will not be nationalized as it was feared a few hours ago. The option Costa's government most disliked, nationalization, was avoided in the early hours of the morning as the government and the private owners reached an agreement. The details are still being drafted, but the State will buy the 22.5% David Neelman has in TAP and will have a total of 72.5% of the company. The other 27.5% are distributed by workers, 5%, and Barraqueiro Transports, 22.5%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 02, 2020, 05:23:32 PM
PSD decisive in negotiating the emergency budget with the PS, makes PCP to vote against. BE will abstain but is also unhappy with the PS.


Quote
How Rui Rio hurt the "Geringonça" with a summer Central Block

The PSD negotiated several policies with the PS during the budget debate yesterday, which surprised PCP and BE. Policies like support for managing partners, expansion of unemployment support, health workers support and childcare payments were expected to create several "negative coalitions" against the PS government, but the PSD leader, Rui Rio, decided to negotiate several of their proposals with the PS and win the support of the Socialists. Others parties were quite surprised by this "Central Bloc" and are criticizing the PSD for aligning with the PS. Nonetheless, the PSD was successful in passing many of their proposals, with some changes, with the help of the PS.

But, parties on the left aren't happy. PCP will vote against the budget, the first time in 5 years in which the Communists will not support a PS budget, as they say the convergence of PS and PSD demands an alternative. BE also criticizes this convergence between the 2 main parties. On the right, the Liberals, IL, are saying that the PSD has given up opposing the government and the PS.

The final vote of the 2020 emergency budget or supplementary budget, will be tomorrow and will only pass with the votes of the PS. PSD, BE and PAN will abstain, while PCP, PEV, CDS, CHEGA and IL will likely vote against.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: GlobeSoc on July 02, 2020, 07:55:40 PM
In general, centre alliances are not a good idea and a recipe for polarization to more extreme parties, but I'm curious whether or not that will play out here as I don't know Portuguese politics well


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 03, 2020, 06:49:31 AM
In general, centre alliances are not a good idea and a recipe for polarization to more extreme parties, but I'm curious whether or not that will play out here as I don't know Portuguese politics well

PS and PSD agreements are very common. In fact, before 2015, the exception was the PS finding support on the left. But now, it seems we have gone back to the pre-2015 situation. PS and PSD have some common ground on, for example, labour laws, regulations, and others and some parts of both parties constantly press that Portugal needs strong reforms that can only happen with strong PS and PSD agreements. Formal coalitions are not on the table as both parties compete directly and don't accept that.

The electorate seem to not punish this kind of agreements, on the contrary. The "common ground" affect has in the past benefited either the PS or the PSD. It's not something that the general electorate hates, the same cannot, probably, be said for both party bases that normally don't any talk with the other side, but this doesn't seem to affect the parties in polling. But, of course, this could change, especially with the current existence of IL and CHEGA on the right, but, for now, there's no proof of any change.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 04, 2020, 05:37:46 AM
Eurosondagem poll for SOL newspaper, Porto Canal and other regional newspapers:  (https://observador.pt/2020/07/04/sondagem-mais-de-70-considera-muito-importante-liga-dos-campeoes-em-portugal/)

Vote share %:

38.4% PS (+0.4)
29.3% PSD (nc)
   8.4% BE (+0.4)
   6.0% CDU (+0.7)
   4.4% CHEGA (+0.3)
   2.8% PAN (-0.2)
   2.2% CDS (-0.5)  
   1.1% IL (nc)
   7.4% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 29 June and 2 July 2020. Polled 1,025 voters. MoE of 3.06%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 05, 2020, 11:09:52 AM
2021 local elections: Main parties, PS and PSD, start to consider some candidates:

The 2021 local elections are 1 year and 3 months away and, in a normal time, many candidate would already be announced, but the Covid-19 pandemic changed all plans and official candidates are only expected to be announced during or after January 2021. Nonetheless, parties, especially the 2 main parties, are starting to consider candidates and strategies.

In Lisbon, PS mayor Fernando Medina is expected to run for another term and the PSD is considering running MP Ricardo Baptista Leite. He has become a very known person as he is a doctor and is normally on TV. (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/psd-aposta-em-ricardo-baptista-leite-como-cabeca-de-lista-por-lisboa) He even appeared sometimes on UK's ITV Good Morning Britain. If it will be a PSD or PSD/CDS candidacy is still to be decided.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, has also steeled the rule book for the 2021 elections for the party and the national leadership will choose the candidates in the main cities, Lisbon and Porto especially, (https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/07/02/politica/rui-rio-pode-travar-autarcas-que-queiram-recandidatar-se/noticia/198836/) the party should run alone and only in specific races with other parties, mayor who can run for another term can present their candidate if they want, and the candidates with judicial problems could be removed by the national leadership.

The PS is also staring to consider some candidates. In Cascais, a PSD stronghold, the PS is considering running former Health minister Adalberto Campos Fernandes (https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/701912/ps-lanca-ex-ministro-da-sa-de-em-cascais) and in Viseu city, the PS has already chosen their candidate and João Azevedo will lead the PS list in this also PSD stronghold. In Castelo Branco, a PS stronghold, the PS is having problems as the current mayor is in danger of being thrown out of office due to corruption charges and some in the party say that the situation is very bad (https://www.publico.pt/2020/06/03/politica/noticia/socialistas-castelo-branco-apelam-direccao-nacional-ps-avoque-processo-autarquico-1919077) and that the national leadership should lead the process of choosing a candidate.


Quote
PS launches Ex-Minister of Health in Cascais

In Madeira, PSD and CDS are discussing possible coalitions in the main cities, particularly in Funchal. This would be the first time the PSD-Madeira runs in a coalition, but, for now, it's only a discussion. In Oeiras, mayor Isaltino Morais is becoming closer with the PSD and some in the party are considering supporting or Isaltino Morais leading the PSD lists (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-06-18-Namoro-do-PSD-a-Isaltino-pode-acabar-em-segundas-nupcias--Corte-estara-em-curso-mas-o-sim-cabe-a-Rui-Rio). Mr Isaltino was expelled from the party in 2005, due to corruption charges and spent some years in jail until he was released from jail and won, again, the 2017 elections in Oeiras in a landslide.


Quote
PSD wants reconciliation with Isaltino Morais

So, a lot to happen in the next few months in the local level.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 08, 2020, 10:23:27 AM
Azores 2020 regional election: Parliament approves early voting for the regional elections.


Quote
Parliament: AR approves early vote and mobility for the Azores regional elections

Parliament has approved early voting for the Azores regional elections, scheduled for early/mid October this year. The proposal was presented the Azores regional parliament and passed with the votes of PS, PSD and BE. CDU, CDS and IL abstained in the vote.

The date of the elections is still to be decided, but a date is expected by early August.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 09, 2020, 06:44:35 AM
Minister of Infrastructures, Pedro Nuno Santos, says he will not vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa:


Quote
Pedro Nuno Santos says he will vote for PCP or BE presidential candidates if PS doesn't present one - RTP Notícias

During an interview to RTP News, Pedro Nuno Santos, Minister of Infrastructures, said he wanted the PS to have its own presidential candidate to the 2021 elections, but refused to vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, saying he will never support the candidate of the right. He added that he has nothing against Marcelo, but that he's a Socialist and if the PS doesn't present a candidate from its area, he will vote in either the PCP or BE candidate.

Earlier this May, António Costa basically endorsed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's reelection which signaled a future support of the PS for the President's reelection bid. Nonetheless, Carlos César, PS' chairman, also made an interview to Público newspaper and talked directly to Pedro Nuno Santos.


Quote
Carlos César warns Costa's successors: they will have to wait seated

In the interview, Mr César guaranteed that António Costa will go on and on and that he sees Costa winning a 3rd term as PM. asked about the 2 possible successors of Costa, Pedro Nuno Santos and Fernando Medina, he said that they will have to wait a long time and advise them to wait seated.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 09, 2020, 07:29:05 PM
Aximage poll for the 2021 Presidential elections:  (https://leitor.jornaleconomico.pt/noticia/marcelo-duas-vezes-acima-da-soma-dos-adversarios)

Vote share:

65% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes
  7% André Ventura
  4% Marisa Matias
  2% Adolfo Mesquita Nunes
  1% Jerónimo de Sousa
  8% Others/Undecided

Some crosstabs data by age and party:

50-64 years old:

50% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
26% Ana Gomes
11% André Ventura

18-24 years old:

73% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  8% Marisa Matias

PSD

82% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

PS

67% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
23% Ana Gomes

BE

56% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes

CDU

52% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes

Poll conducted between 7 and 8 July 2020.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 10, 2020, 07:39:28 PM
Parliament strucks down PSD proposals to change some Parliamentary procedures:


Quote
Parliament "strucks down" PSD proposals on how AR works

The PSD saw their proposals to change some rules on how Parliament works rejected by PS, BE, CDU, CDS and IL. Only CHEGA supported the PSD policies. The Social Democrats proposed two main changes: the end of the transparency committee and the creation of a new one without MPs to analyze and rule on MPs conflict of interests and others, and the inclusion of, also, non MPs in Parliamentary committees, mainly independents.

Parties trashed the PSD proposals accusing them of defending populist ideas, which angered PSD leader Rui Rio. Speaking to reporters, Rio accused particularly the PS MP Jorge Lacão, who attacked the PSD proposals, of being the reason reform is needed as Mr Lacão "is in Parliament since the 80's and is basically part of the furniture". He added that the corridors of Parliament have to be aired.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 13, 2020, 09:01:01 AM
Azores 2020 elections: PS approves lists and renominates Vasco Cordeiro as candidate for the Presidency of the Government.


Quote
Azores / Elections: PS approves lists and appoints Vasco Cordeiro for president of the Regional Government

The PS-Azores has approved the lists for the October 2020 regional elections last Saturday. They also renominated Vasco Cordeiro as PS candidate for the Presidency. Mr Cordeiro will run for a third, and last, term as President of the Azores Government and will lead the PS list in the main island, São Miguel. The PS will have lists in all 9 islands, plus the compensation constituency. 70% of the candidates on the lists are re-nominations and 50% are independents. The deputy president of the region, Sérgio Ávila, will lead the list in the second most populated island, Terceira, and the speaker of the regional parliament, Ana Luís, will lead the list in Faial island. The PS caucus leader, Francisco César, son of former Azores President and current PS president Carlos César, will be place number 5 in the list of São Miguel islands.

The election date is still to be announced.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 17, 2020, 09:25:11 AM
PS and PSD agree to reduce time of intervention of smaller parties in Parliament, infuriating smaller parties:


Quote
Smaller parties fear being hit by the Central Bloc.

PS and PSD seem to have agreed on a series of changes in Parliamentary procedures to eliminate the biweekly PM Q&A debates and turn it to a monthly one, reduce the time of intervention of smaller parties and the rights of MPs to start their own legislative initiatives. These changes are infuriating the smaller parties in Parliament, BE, PCP, CDS, PAN, PEV, CH and IL, accusing the two main parties of creating a huge setback in Parliamentary procedures in Portugal and that this will reduce Parliament's scrutiny of the government and the PM.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 18, 2020, 10:55:39 AM
Financial situation of the main parties: PS and CDS in near bankruptcy, PSD surpasses PCP to become the richest party in the country.


Quote
PS and CDS-PP in technical bankruptcy. PSD and PCP are the parties with most solid accounts

The Public Accounts and Financing Entity, a bureau of the Constitutional Court, revealed that in 2019, the PS and CDS were in "technical bankruptcy" as both parties had bigger debts than their overall assets, with the PS having a negative balance of 3,8 million euros and CDS a negative balance of 1,3 million euros. On the other hand, PSD surpassed the PCP, until now the party with more assets, and becomes the biggest party in terms of assets and with biggest positive balance. The party led by Rui Rio ended 2019 with 27,9 million euros in assets and positive balance of 19,1 million euros. The PCP presented assets worth 20,7 million euros and a positive balance of 16,7 million euros. The rest of the parties, BE, PAN, CH and IL, also presented good financial numbers and all with a positive balance.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 19, 2020, 07:55:42 AM
Aximage poll for JN newspaper and TSF radio:  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/avaliacao-de-costa-governo-e-marcelo-em-alta-oposicao-nem-por-isso-12435671.html)

Government' job approval:

57% Positive
26% Negative
13% Average
  4% Undecided

Opposition' job approval:

37% Positive
33% Negative
21% Average
  9% Undecided

António Costa' job approval:

63% Positive
18% Negative
12% Average
  7% Undecided

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa' job approval:

61% Positive
22% Negative
12% Average
  5% Undecided

Trust in the PM and President:

41% Trust more the President
33% Equal trust
17% Trust more the PM
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 July 2020. Polled 624 voters. MoE of 3.90%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 19, 2020, 06:40:14 PM
Aximage poll for JN newspaper and TSF radio:  (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/sondagem-poe-ps-nos-404-e-todos-os-outros-partidos-em-queda-menos-chega-e-iniciativa-liberal-615333)

Vote share %:

40.4% PS (+0.5)
26.7% PSD (+0.9)
   8.5% BE (+0.5)
   6.0% CDU (+1.1)
   5.2% CHEGA (-0.1)
   2.6% PAN (-1.7)
   2.1% CDS (+0.9)  
   2.1% IL (+0.7)
  0.1% Livre (-0.1)
   6.3% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 July 2020. Polled 624 voters. MoE of 3.90%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 19, 2020, 07:52:26 PM
More polling.

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/graficos/detalhe/ps-perde-terreno-nas-intencoes-de-voto-com-reforco-nos-pequenos-partidos?ref=Pesquisa_Destaques)

Vote share %:

39.0% PS (-1.0)
23.9% PSD (-0.2)
10.4% BE (+0.6)
  6.2% CHEGA (-0.6)
  6.2% CDU (nc)
  4.8% CDS (+0.7) 
  3.0% PAN (-0.1)
  2.8% IL (+0.9)
  0.4% Livre (-0.4)
  0.2% Others (-1.3)
  3.0% Invalid/Blank (+1.3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.4 António Costa (-0.4)
3.2 Rui Rio (nc)
3.0 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
2.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.2)
2.6 André Silva (-0.3)
2.6 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.2 André Ventura (nc)
1.7 Joacine Katar Moreira (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 July 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 20, 2020, 01:56:59 PM
PS regional primaries held this weekend. More left wing of the party defeated as candidates closer to Costa win across the country:


Quote
"Costism" overturns Pedro Nuno Santos' intention to gain weight in the PS federal elections

The Socialist Party (PS) held regional party election during last weekend. Around 50,000 PS members were registered to vote and 56.3% cast a ballot. All 19 party regional structures were up for election. Pedro Nuno Santos, minister of Infrastructures and possible future contender in the PS leadership more aligned with the left wing of the party, supported several candidates that were defeated by more moderate candidates, like in Viseu and Coimbra where candidates close to Pedro Nuno Santos polled at 47% and 38% respectably. Nonetheless, some PS members close to Pedro Nuno Santos were reelected in Lisbon, Braga and Aveiro but were single list elections and had support from both wings.

António Costa, PM and PS leader, thanked every one who ran in the elections adding that they contributed for reaffirming the wealth of pluralism and diversity of opinions whitin the PS. However, and although the left wing of the PS didn't make gains this time, some media outlets are considering these party elections another step in Pedro Nuno Santos strategy for the future. No one is challenging Costa right now, or in the very near future, but many of the candidates elected during the weekend will probably be candidates for the 2021 local elections which could be crucial for the future of the PS in power for the next few years.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 21, 2020, 06:57:47 AM
PS and PSD approve new Parliamentary rules: PM only has to go to Parliament every 2 months.


Quote
Parliament: PS and PSD want Prime Minister to only go to Parliament every two months

The two main parties, PS and PSD which control 81% of Parliament, passed, today, new Parliamentary rules that end the biweekly PM Q&A debates and only demands the PM to be part in Q&A debates every 2 months as the Q&A debates are monthly but the PM and cabinet members can alternate their presence. The PS proposal, negotiated with the PSD, was the one that passed. Smaller parties, BE, CDU, CDS, PAN, CHEGA and IL, all criticized the new rules accusing the 2 main parties of having no "shame", that this is a big scandal and that Parliament is being downgraded by PS and PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 21, 2020, 09:41:18 AM
2021 elections: Mayor of Castelo Branco forced out of office by the Courts.


Quote
Mayor of Castelo Branco loses mandate

The mayor of Castelo Branco, Luís Correia (PS), has lost his mandate by order of the Constitutional Court. Mr Correia is involved in a corruption investigation where he's accused of signing several contracts with his father's company with no competition. The mayor has accepted the Court' decision but says it's an unjust one and that he's being attacked by a "smear and demagogic campaign". He added that in his 7 years as mayor he worked always for the people of Castelo Branco and that he did everything in a clear conscience. Mr Correia was in his 2nd term and was eligible for a 3rd run in 2021.

The deputy mayor will now succeed him and run the city until the 2021 elections. However, the local PS is very divided with internal infighting (https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/703529/antigos-socraticos-preparam-assalto-ao-poder-em-castelo-branco?seccao=Portugal_i) between the more "younger" wing of the party, in which Mr Correia was part of, and the old guard of the party who want to take back power. Some even suggest talking with the PSD in order to defeat a PS led by Mr. Correia' wing. Nonetheless, this tactic isn't very well seen in the PSD.

Castelo Branco is a PS stronghold, as the PS only polled 2nd once in the last 27 years. Therefore, the PS will likely hold this city in 2021, even with party infighting. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 22, 2020, 05:30:58 AM
Intercampus poll on the 2021 Presidential election:  (https://zap.aeiou.pt/marcelo-70-voto-supera-resultado-mario-soares-336553)

Vote share %:

70.8% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+8.2)
  9.7% Ana Gomes (-1.1)
  5.0% André Ventura (-4.8 )
  4.0% Marisa Matias (-1.4)
  2.6% Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.7)
  3.9% Others
  4.0% None/Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 July 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 22, 2020, 09:13:35 AM
Azores 2020 elections: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is receiving parties, today, to call a date for the regional elections:


Quote
Elections: PPM-Azores suggests that regional elections take place on 25 October

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is meeting with the regional parties represented in the Azores Parliament, PS, PSD, CDS, CDU, BE and PPM, in order to call a date for the regional elections in the islands. PPM-Azores, the first party to be received by the President, suggested 25 October as election day. During the rest of the day, the rest of the parties will suggest a data. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa could announce a date during today or in the next few days.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 23, 2020, 05:40:01 AM
Many PS and PSD MPs are angry with the proposal of ending the biweekly PM Q&A debates and will vote against:


Quote
Divisions in the "Central Bloc" over the Prime Minister's presence in the AR every two months

The ending of the biweekly PM Q&A debates and changing it to a format where the PM is only forced to go to Parliament every 2 months, is revolting many PS and PSD MPs who are planning to vote against the proposal, colading with the intentions of Rui Rio and António Costa. Jorge Lacão, PS MP, says that almost half of the PS caucus will vote against. In the PSD the number could be even higher. If half of both the PS and PSD caucuses vote against the proposal, the ending of the biweekly debates would fail by 137 votes. The vote is schedule for this afternoon.

Media and pundits are also criticizing heavily Rio and Costa for supporting this. Público newspaper editoral even says that Costa and Rio share a "Salazarist DNA" (https://www.publico.pt/2020/07/23/politica/editorial/adn-salazarista-rio-costa-1925512), like many Portuguese, by downgrading Parliamentary debates.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 23, 2020, 11:35:46 AM
End of biweekly PM Q&A debates approved: 21 PS MPs and 5 PSD MPs voted against, alongside the smaller parties:  (https://observador.pt/2020/07/23/maratona-de-votacoes-no-parlamento-fim-dos-debates-quinzenais-no-centro-da-polemica/)

The controversial end of the PM biweekly Q&A debates passed in Parliament with 161 votes in favour and 69 against. In the PS caucus, 21 MPs voted against while in the PSD it was fewer with 5 MPs voting against. Smaller parties continued to criticized the meassure accusing PS and PSD of creating a big stain in their history and CHEGA is considering sending this new meassure to the Constitutional Court as it "violates the strongest tradition of parliamentarism", said Ventura.

PS and PSD defended the new rule saying that the oversight of the government isn't in question, but the responses, from both caucus, for their spokespersons were very shy with few MPs clapping.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 23, 2020, 02:50:02 PM
UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/estado-da-nacao-portugueses-dao-nota-positiva-a-marcelo-e-costa_n1246918)

Vote share %:

39% PS
26% PSD
  7% BE
  7% CHEGA
  6% CDU
  3% CDS
  3% IL
  3% PAN
  6% Others/Invalid

President of the Republic job approval:

87% Good/Very good
10% Bad/Very bad
  3% Undecided

Government's job approval:

73% Good/Very good
21% Bad/Very bad
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 13 and 18 July 2020. Polled 1,482 voters. MoE of 2.5%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 24, 2020, 10:20:58 AM
State of the Nation debate: PS and PSD attack each other as Costa asks the left for a long term agreement.


Quote
State of the Nation. Costa between a Rio in combat mode and a left standing behind - RTP News

The mood between PS and PSD was quite tense in the State of the Nation debate this morning in Parliament. PSD leader, Rui Rio, attacked the government's hydrogen energy plan accusing the government of creating a new monopoly to serve special interests and that the costs for the taxpayers will be very big. PM António Costa accused the PSD of being a "fossilized" party that lives in the past and said that the hydrogen energy plan is very important for the country. Rio also accused the government of managing badly the public debt. The Novo Banco case was once again used as a weapon between PS and PSD to attack each other.

Nonetheless, in this debate, Costa challenged the left parties, BE and CDU, to form a new agreement. However the message was received with skepticism by the leftwing. CDU accused the government of pursuing policies in the wrong direction and that will not solve anything. BE said that the 2021 budget needs to answer the worries of unemployment, the NHS problems and investment in social services. The PS responded that they are willing to talk with BE but they seem to disagree on the way to solve the crisis.

The 2019-2020 parliamentary session now ended. The 2nd session of the 14th Parliament will start in mid September.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 25, 2020, 05:01:44 PM
2021 Presidential elections: IL nominates Tiago Mayan Gonçalves as candidate for the presidency:


Quote
Presidency of the Republic: Liberal Initiative already has a candidate for Belém: his name is Tiago Mayan Gonçalves and he says he is "uncompromised"

The Liberal Initiative, IL, has chosen Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, a 43 year old lawyer from Porto city, as the party's candidate for the January 2021 Presidential election. Mr Gonçalves becomes the 2nd official candidate to announce his candidate, the other being André Ventura, CHEGA leader. PCP will announce their candidate in the next couple of weeks, BE will likely also present a candidate and Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is expected to officially announce his reelection candidacy in November. Ana Gomes is still considering running.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 26, 2020, 05:33:33 PM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV about racism in Portugal:  (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/maioria-considera-que-ha-racismo-em-portugal)

Q1: Is there racism in Portugal?

68.1% Yes
29.4% No
  2.6% Undecided

Q2: Do you, or someone you know, have been victim of racism in Portugal?

82.0% No
18.0% Yes

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 July 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 27, 2020, 07:30:25 PM
2021 Presidential elections: PDR leader, Bruno Fialho, also presents his candidacy to the Presidency.


Quote
Bruno Fialho, PDR leader, announces candidacy "on the center" for Belém

The Democratic Republican Party (PDR) leader, Bruno Fialho, has announced his candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic. Mr Fialho, a lawyer and businessman, was elected PDR leader in January 2020. He accuses Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa of being too close to the government and that, from the President, the people expect decision that help them and that the current President actions were not very positive.

Mr Fialho is the 3th candidate to officially announce a candidacy for the 2021 January Presidential election.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 30, 2020, 09:44:31 AM
Rui Rio RTP interview: PSD leader open to talks with CHEGA if the party moderates its tone and said that he would consider let TAP airlines close.


Quote
Great RTP Interview. Rui Rio admitted the closure of TAP

In an interview on RTP, yesterday, PSD leader Rui Rio said he would consider talking with CHEGA if the party moderates its tone, but added that if the party continues its current strategy, talks between PSD and CHEGA are almost impossible. Rio also criticized the government's handling of the TAP airline crisis and the hydrogen controversy, saying, regarding TAP, that the government gave money to the company with no plan and that more money will likely be asked again. He added that if he was PM he would consider closing TAP airlines if the plan presented by the company wasn't feasible. Regarding the hydrogen controversy, Rio accused, once again, the government of creating a special scheme to invest in hydrogen that will hurt taxpayers. Rio also talked about the ongoing scandal of the Novo Banco real estate sales, in which the bank sold real estates below the price of the market via the Cayman Islands and lost money forcing them to ask for more money from the government. Rio accused the Novo Banco board of criminal actions. He also tried to explain the controversy of the end of biweekly debates with the PM saying that these kind of the debates were unhelpful.

CHEGA has already responded to Rio's statement saying that they will only consider talking with the PSD when the Social Democrats end being "the maid of honor" of the PS. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-07-30-Chega-so-admite-conversar-com-PSD-se-Rio-deixar-de-ser-dama-de-honor-do-PS) They also refuse to be a CDS 2.0 for the PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: VPH on July 30, 2020, 11:08:56 AM
I don't see CHEGA moderating. What incentive do they have? As an outsider party, it's often easier to sit around and attack others rather than actually govern.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on July 30, 2020, 12:11:08 PM
I don't see CHEGA moderating. What incentive do they have? As an outsider party, it's often easier to sit around and attack others rather than actually govern.

In the near future, 1/2 years, of course not. But, who knows in 3/4 years. CHEGA is still mainly a "single person" party but many of the people close to Ventura, and people who would likely be elected if polling is correct, are former PSD members. In a future PSD victory, like I believe I said in posts a few weeks/months ago, many CHEGA members, former PSD members, could be tempted to talk with the PSD, while the hard line of the party, which never had anything to do with the PSD in the past, could refuse. Power or the prospects of power could change everything.

But, to that to even be considered the PSD needs to break away from the average 26-27% they are stuck in for months now. A stronger PSD in the polls would also change the dynamics of possible talks on the right, as CHEGA, currently, is growing very fast and has the upper hand, while the same cannot be said for the PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 05, 2020, 10:53:55 AM
Political update:

Health authorities admit changes to the PCP's organization of the Avante Festival, in early September:


Quote
DGS admits adjustments to the recommendations for the “Avante!” Party

The PCP annual festival, in early September, is back in the news. With just weeks before the festival, the party says it can receive the 100,000 people that annually go to the festival safely and with social distance. The festival's grounds have been expanded more than 10,000 square meters. However, the General Health Department has said that adjustments to the festival organization will probably be made but they say that meetings with the party will be be held and final decisions will be made in the next few days.

The Constitutional Court has said that Azores violated the Constitution by forcing quarantines of 14 days for infected people arriving in the island. Azores, and also Madeira, want a change in the Constitution to give more powers to the regions:


Quote
In reaction to the decision of the Constitutional Court, which considered mandatory confinement unconstitutional, the President of the Regional Government of the Azores says that "the legal framework needs to be improved".

The Constitutional Court has ruled as unconstitutional the Azores regional government decision to force quarantine for people arriving in the islands. The President of the Azores government, Vasco Cordeiro, said the decision in "absurd" and a blatant example of "centralism" in Portugal, demanding, then, changes in the Constitution to give more powers to regions. Madeira regional government also supports changes.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 08, 2020, 10:24:10 AM
PSD-CHEGA future talks?: PSD seems split as Rui Rio considers the possibility of future talks with CHEGA if the party moderates its tone.


Quote
Will CHEGA be close to the PSD or is a "sanitary cord" needed?

Many PSD members have been criticizing and agreeing with Rio's statement, 2 weeks ago, that PSD could talk with CHEGA in the future if the party moderates its tone. PSD members, like Cascais mayor Carlos Carreiras, and others, accuse Rio of being desperate and of having no strategy. However, Rio seems to have gained an ally with Miguel Albuquerque, President of the Madeira government, as he said the PSD should talk with CHEGA and with no preconditions, while Rio defended conditions, as it is imperative to defeat the left in Portugal, adding that no moderation is needed as the PS talked with BE and CDU, with Mr. Albuquerque saying the latter even supports North Korea. Others, on the contrary, say that the issue is untimely and that the focus should be on opposing António Costa' government.


Quote
Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos: "Probability of understandings of CDS with Chega is null"

CDS is also in trouble surrounding possible talks with CHEGA. The party, which is polling at record levels, is also divided about CHEGA. Current leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, said, in an interview, that the possibility of CDS talking with CHEGA is "null" as he accuses André Ventura of being the candidate of "coffee house extremisms". After this interview, a CDS member, that led a conservative movement within the party, announced he was leaving CDS and going to CHEGA. (https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2020-08-07-Lider-de-corrente-conservadora-no-CDS-deixa-partido-e-adere-ao-Chega) Former CDS caucus leader under Assunção Cristas, Nuno Magalhães, diverged from the party leader saying the CDS should not close the door for possible agreements with CHEGA and that the leader should hear what the party bases believe.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 10, 2020, 06:01:17 AM
Azores elections 2020: PSD approves lists with high "consensus", but there were tensions in one party section because of the lists.


Quote
PSD approves lists of candidates by "huge consensus" - Jornal Açores 9

The PSD-Azores approved, last Saturday, the lists of candidates for the October regional elections. PSD leader, José Manuel Bolieiro, was nominated as candidate for President of the Government and will lead the list in São Miguel island, the biggest electoral district in Azores. According to the party, 79% of the names in the lists are new, meaning that of the names chosen in 2016 only 21% will remain, and that 44% of the candidates in the lists are women.

However, the "huge consensus" was overshadowed by tensions between the regional PSD and a local party branch in Vila Franca do Campo. The local party was quite upset the regional leadership didn't accept their chosen candidate to represent the town and decided to resign and not to campaign in the October election.

The date of the election is still to be announced. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa could announce a date as late as next week because the publication of the changes of the Azores electoral law will only be published this week. The most likely dates are 18 or 25 October.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 12, 2020, 06:48:52 AM
The 18 deaths in a nursing home in Reguengos de Monsaraz, Évora, are becoming a political issue as parties accuse of negligence the Health authorities and the government:


Quote
18 deaths in Reguengos' nursing home: "a humanitarian crime”, "cannot be repeated", "where is the minister?" and a fundamental interview

The report of of the Medical Bar Association on the conditions of a nursing home in Reguengos de Monsaraz, Évora district, was sent to the DA office to further investigation. The report states that the conditions in the nursing home were very bad and that the majority of deaths cannot be attributed to Covid-19 but rather dehydration and other serious illnesses. An outbreak of Covid-19 broke, here, in mid July and in the nursing home 106 people were infected, then which spread to the community with 56 others infected.

The doctor heading the report said the nursing home didn't follow any guidelines from the DGS, Health authorities, but that the DGS can be also accused as responsible as it failed to manage the situation. Political parties are already accusing the government of hidding and not giving answers. CDS says this is "a humanitarian crime" and that the State seems to be more worried with dogs than the elderly. The PSD says the government has disappeared especially the minister of Social Security and wants answers from the government. If no answers are given, the party will consider asking for an extraordinary session of Parliament, during the holidays, to force the government to give answers. PCP also is demanding answers and wants, if the accusations are proved, that the nursing home and the mayor of the city, led by the PS, be labeled as responsible for this situation.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 12, 2020, 06:00:11 PM
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa slaps PS and PSD by vetoing several new parliamentary rules like fewer debates about Europe and the increase of signatures needed to petitions to be discussed:


Quote
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says it is negative for democracy that the minimum number of signatures necessary to bring a petition to Parliament's plenary has been increased to ten thousand.

The President of the Republic has vetoed at least two major bills, regarding new parliamentary rules, that were approved by PS and PSD. The reduction of debates, with the PM, about Europe was vetoed, as was the increase of the number of signatures needed for a petition to be discussed in Parliament, from 4,000 to 10,000. The President hammered these new rules saying they're bad for democracy and give space for populist movements. The President also hinted that he would also veto the reduction of PM Q&A, but in that matter he has no word. The new rules were sent back to Parliament for reconsideration.

Smaller parties applauded the President' decision while PS and PSD haven't made an official comment. If the main parties don't change the rules, the President can only use the power of veto 2 more times and if no changes occur, the new rules become permanent. However, it's somewhat expected that PS and PSD will make changes in the new rules.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 13, 2020, 06:40:08 AM
Police investigates death threats to 3 MPs and their families:


Quote
PJ investigates threats to left-wing deputies and SOS Racism - RTP Notícias

The police is investigating death threats that 3 MPs, BE MPs Mariana Mortágua and Beatriz Dias, and Ind MP Joacine Katar Moreira, received via email. In that email, also sent to SOS Racism association, a deadline of 48 hours is given to members of the association and the 3 MPs, and their families, to leave Portugal and that if they fail the deadline, other measures will be done to "ensure the security of the Portuguese people".

The Speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues, has already condemn these actions saying these threats come from a "far-right group" and that "racist, hate-promoting and attempted intimidation acts" must be condemn.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Farmlands on August 13, 2020, 06:52:46 PM
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa slaps PS and PSD by vetoing several new parliamentary rules like fewer debates about Europe and the increase of signatures needed to petitions to be discussed.

Smaller parties applauded the President' decision while PS and PSD haven't made an official comment. If the main parties don't change the rules, the President can only use the power of veto 2 more times and if no changes occur, the new rules become permanent. However, it's somewhat expected that PS and PSD will make changes in the new rules.

Thank God for the President. Without his veto, I have no doubt that the big two parties would continually try to get rid of norms and procedures unfavourable to them, practically the only time they ever get together to do something now. Goes to show the importance of checks and balances in a healthy, functioning democracy.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 14, 2020, 05:31:34 AM
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa slaps PS and PSD by vetoing several new parliamentary rules like fewer debates about Europe and the increase of signatures needed to petitions to be discussed.

Smaller parties applauded the President' decision while PS and PSD haven't made an official comment. If the main parties don't change the rules, the President can only use the power of veto 2 more times and if no changes occur, the new rules become permanent. However, it's somewhat expected that PS and PSD will make changes in the new rules.

Thank God for the President. Without his veto, I have no doubt that the big two parties would continually try to get rid of norms and procedures unfavourable to them, practically the only time they ever get together to do something now. Goes to show the importance of checks and balances in a healthy, functioning democracy.

The reduction of PM Q&A debates and other rule changes fit perfectly with Rio' and Costa's political personalities. Both aren't good orators, are very controlling and both don't like parliamentary routine. Both, in the past, criticized the weekly PM Q&A debates and proposed changes to it. And in their minds, these changes are good for both: Costa, who isn't very impressive in debating, wouldn't have to go to Parliament and would do what he does best, controlling the political situation by decisions not subject by Parliament; and Rio the same, adding that he's even more controlling than Costa, plus he would remove air time for parties like IL and CDS, especially IL, who constantly says Rio is, more often than not, a puppet of the PS. Now, the problem of all of this is the image it gives, which is not very good, though I doubt the majority of the electorate gives the importance the media gives it.

According to the media, PS and PSD don't know what to do with the vetoes, if they change the rules or sent it back with no changes:


Quote
Parliament: PSD and PS still do not know if they insist on changing the petitions law

If they don't change a thing, Marcelo's hands are tied and he has to pass the rules as presidential vetoes have a limit.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 15, 2020, 06:37:52 PM
Reguengos de Monsaraz nursing controversy: Social Security minister says she hasn't read the report yet, drawing criticisms from the opposition and a "jibe" by Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.


Quote
Outbreak size in nursing homes "is not too big", says Minister of Social Security

The Social Security minister, Ana Mendes Godinho, is in a middle of a controversy about the Reguengos de Monsaraz nursing home report. In a trainwreck interview to Expresso newspaper, the minister said she didn't read the report yet but had asked her team to analyze it and give a feedback. She added that outbreaks in nursing homes aren't that serious and that her job doesn't require to ascertain responsibilities for outbreaks in nursing homes. The interview is creating controversy with PSD, CDS and CHEGA accusing the minister of incompetence and no sense of humanity. PSD has already asked the minister to go to an emergency hearing in Parliament, while CDS and CHEGA are asking for her resignation.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa also commented, saying he has read all of the reports about the nursing home in Monsaraz, in what seemed to be a jibe to the minister. (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/descontextualizacao-grave-ministra-da-seguranca-social-diz-que-nao-desvalorizou-surtos-12526595.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) He further added that authorities have a lot of material to investigate and demand responsibilities.

The ministry of Social Security has already accused Expresso newspaper of "decontextualizing in a serious way" (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/descontextualizacao-grave-ministra-da-seguranca-social-diz-que-nao-desvalorizou-surtos-12526595.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) the minister's words and that she didn't downplayed the outbreaks. Expresso newspaper immediately sent a memo saying the minister is lying and published the full audio of the interview.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-08-15-Expresso-repudia-a-acusacao-de-descontextualizacao.-Oica-aqui-o-audio-da-entrevista-a-ministra-Ana-Mendes-Godinho)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 17, 2020, 05:39:36 AM
Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:  (https://www.pressreader.com/portugal/correio-da-manha/20200817/281517933484645/textview)

Vote share %:

39.6% PS (+0.6)
24.8% PSD (+0.9)
   8.5% BE (-1.9)
   7.9% CHEGA (+1.7)
   6.1% CDU (-0.1)
   4.4% CDS (-0.4)  
   3.2% PAN (+0.2)
   2.8% IL (nc)
   0.0% Livre (-0.4)
   0.4% Others (+0.2)
  2.2% Invalid/Blank (-0.7)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.4 António Costa (nc)
3.1 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.8 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
2.6 André Silva (nc)
2.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.5 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.2 André Ventura (nc)
1.8 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 August 2020. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 17, 2020, 11:21:52 AM
Azores regional elections: Electoral commission says voting will be safe in Azores.


Quote
Elections in the Azores: CNE says that voting will be safe and that the pandemic cannot justify abstention

The Electoral Commission met today with the government of Azores to ensure that the voting process will be safe during the October elections. The Commission says that people should bring their own pens in order to vote, use masks, election workers will be wearing masks and visors and that IDs will be disinfected as well disinfectant alcohol will be provided to voters. The Commission also adds that the pandemic cannot be a reason to abstain in the elections, as all security measures will be in place. Azores has had 194 confirmed cases since March, with 23 currently active, and 16 deaths.

Abstention in Azores is always very big. In the 2016 elections, just 41% cast a ballot, and in the 2019 general election just 36.5% went to the polls. Plus, the election outcome is basically a forgone conclusion, so turnout will most likely be one of the lowest ever.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Velasco on August 17, 2020, 11:57:19 AM
Is the PPM running to retain the seat for Corvo?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 17, 2020, 12:28:37 PM
Is the PPM running to retain the seat for Corvo?

I assume that yes. The PPM MP suffered an accident in late July and was rushed to Hospital in São Miguel island, but he seems to be recovering and will most likely run for reelection.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on August 17, 2020, 06:14:09 PM
Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the 2021 Presidential election:  (https://www.pressreader.com/portugal/jornal-de-negocios/20200818/282097754070707)

Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

67.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-3.1)
10.1% André Ventura (+5.1)
  8.7% Ana Gomes (-1.0)
   4.2% Marisa Matias (+0.2)
   2.5% Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
   6.8% Others/Undecided (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 August 2020. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 19, 2020, 06:26:01 PM
Azores election 2020: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa likely to call elections for 25 October. (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/marcelo-vai-marcar-eleicoes-nos-acores-para-25-de-outubro)

In the next few days, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will call regional elections in the Azores for October 25th, Negócios newspaper is reporting. This was the most acceptable date by all parties with the expection of the PS which wanted an earlier date due to the possible second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 20, 2020, 02:37:09 PM
Do you have opinion polling for the Azorean election?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Velasco on August 20, 2020, 02:50:09 PM
Azores election 2020: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa likely to call elections for 25 October. (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/marcelo-vai-marcar-eleicoes-nos-acores-para-25-de-outubro)

In the next few days, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will call regional elections in the Azores for October 25th, Negócios newspaper is reporting. This was the most acceptable date by all parties with the expection of the PS which wanted an earlier date due to the possible second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.


I infer the president of the Republic has the attributions to call regional elections in Portugal, not the head of the regional governments (I guess the same rules for Madeira, right?). It's renarkable


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 20, 2020, 04:56:39 PM
Azores election 2020: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa likely to call elections for 25 October. (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/marcelo-vai-marcar-eleicoes-nos-acores-para-25-de-outubro)

In the next few days, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will call regional elections in the Azores for October 25th, Negócios newspaper is reporting. This was the most acceptable date by all parties with the expection of the PS which wanted an earlier date due to the possible second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.


I infer the president of the Republic has the attributions to call regional elections in Portugal, not the head of the regional governments (I guess the same rules for Madeira, right?). It's renarkable

Yes, the President calls Presidential, General, Regional and European elections. Only the local elections are called by the Prime minister. The rules are also the same for Madeira, of course, but the date has to be somewhat consensual and if snap regional elections are held, like what happened in Madeira in 2007, it's always by the request of the head of the regional governments, which can advise a date but only the President can call it. The same applies to general elections.


For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate. Turnout, on the other hand, could also reach historic lows, which is already a tradition in Azorean elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 20, 2020, 04:59:20 PM

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 20, 2020, 05:15:08 PM

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and a large portion of the population is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 20, 2020, 05:18:44 PM

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.

Wow, very interesting political history.

Thank you!


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 20, 2020, 05:36:05 PM

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.

Wow, very interesting political history.

Thank you!

And about that 1996 election, which changed the political landscape of the Azores, all could had been different. In that election, the PS won more votes but tied with the PSD in terms of seats, 24 each. The PSD started negotiations with the CDS to form a coalition, together PSD+CDS had 27 seats, enough for a majority, but the then President of the Republic, Jorge Sampaio, refused to accept a PSD/CDS coalition government arguing that the party who won was the PS and should form a government, adding that he would a call snap election than to accept a PSD/CDS government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on August 20, 2020, 05:38:31 PM

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.

Wow, very interesting political history.

Thank you!

And about that 1996 election, which changed the political landscape of the Azores, all could had been different. In that election, the PS won more votes but tied with the PSD in terms of seats, 24 each. The PSD started negotiations with the CDS to form a coalition, together PSD+CDS had 27 seats, enough for a majority, but the then President of the Republic, Jorge Sampaio, refused to accept a PSD/CDS coalition government arguing that the party who won was the PS and should form a government, adding that he would call snap election then to accept a PSD/CDS government.

So... I would argue that Jorge Sampaio was pretty bold.
Anyway, thank you for all the information you are sharing in this thread! Very comprehensive.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 20, 2020, 05:43:59 PM

For the moment there's no polling from Azores and we'll see if any poll is released. Polling Azores is a nightmare for pollsters as almost 80% of the Azores population live in the two main islands, São Miguel and Terceira, and the rest in the smaller remaining 7 islands. It's very difficult to gather reliable voting samples from these small islands, so pollsters avoid doing polls in the Azores. In 2016, the only poll failed miserably in predicting the result as it predicted a 61% to 20% victory for the PS, when the actual result was 46% to 31% in favour of the PS. In 2012, the only poll also failed to predict the comfortable victory of the PS.

However, it's basically a forgone conclusion that the PS will win and probably with a bigger majority as the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is widely approved by the electorate.

Very interesting.

Are Azores traditionally socialist leaning?

Azores is one the poorest regions of Portugal and is very dependent on regional state support, the poverty rate is above 30% in the region. It has a somewhat conservative population but that votes, currently, in the PS because the PSD doesn't offer anything different. But it wasn't always like this. Azores was actually a PSD bastion until 1996, when the region was led by Mota Amaral. In 1996, he left the region to become an MP in Lisbon and the PS narrowly won the 1996 elections and since then have hold on to power. Since 1996, the PSD has only won 3 elections in the islands, 2 General elections and 1 European election.

Wow, very interesting political history.

Thank you!

And about that 1996 election, which changed the political landscape of the Azores, all could had been different. In that election, the PS won more votes but tied with the PSD in terms of seats, 24 each. The PSD started negotiations with the CDS to form a coalition, together PSD+CDS had 27 seats, enough for a majority, but the then President of the Republic, Jorge Sampaio, refused to accept a PSD/CDS coalition government arguing that the party who won was the PS and should form a government, adding that he would call snap election then to accept a PSD/CDS government.

So... I would argue that Jorge Sampaio was pretty bold.
Anyway, thank you for all the information you are sharing in this thread! Very comprehensive.

Yes, a President doing something like that today would be unthinkable, especially since what happened in 2015.

Thanks for the feedback :)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 21, 2020, 10:23:03 AM
Presidential vetos: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vetoes the new nationality law and approves early voting in the Azores elections.


Quote
President of the Republic vetoes amendments to the Nationality Law

The President has vetoed the new Nationality law. The new law was passed by all the left and rejected by the right. The President says the new law is unfair as it "disadvantages couples without children, as well as, especially couples with children, endowed with Portuguese nationality, but who haven't children in common". The new law would give Portuguese nationality for children of immigrants living in Portugal for more than a year. The President also approved the changes to the electoral law for the regional elections that expand early voting for the Azores regional elections. However, and despite the approval, the President criticized the change being really close to the elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 22, 2020, 05:58:24 AM
Azores election 2020: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa likely to call elections for 25 October. (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/marcelo-vai-marcar-eleicoes-nos-acores-para-25-de-outubro)

In the next few days, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will call regional elections in the Azores for October 25th, Negócios newspaper is reporting. This was the most acceptable date by all parties with the expection of the PS which wanted an earlier date due to the possible second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.


Now it's official:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa calls regional elections in Azores for October 25, 2020.  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/marcelo-marca-legislativas-regionais-dos-acores-para-25-de-outubro-12544834.html)

I believe parties now have until mid September to present candidacies and the majority have already approved their lists. In 2016, 13 parties were on the ballot and this year that number could be even higher.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 22, 2020, 04:56:08 PM
António Costa interview: PM announces a smaller increase in the minimum wage, a new state support for people hurt by the pandemic and asks for a 3 year agreement with BE and CDU.


Quote
António Costa foresees lower than expected minimum wage increase in 2021

PM António Costa gave an interview to Expresso newspaper where he announced some policies. Regarding the minimum wage, a question some business leaders say there's no margins for increases, Costa said the minimum wage will increase but by a smaller amount than what was predicted for 2020, pre-Covid. He also announced a new state support for people and families affected by the pandemic, but with few details, that income taxes will not be reduced this year, but the VAT on electricity will be reduced. Costa, again, asked for a 3 year agreement with BE and CDU in order to have a strong base to make decisions. He also commented the Reguengos de Monsaraz care controversy by, once again, defending the minister of Social Security saying he himself doesn't read all the reports given to him and attacked the Medical Bar Association saying that Bar Associations do not exist to inspect the State.

Regarding the proposed agreement between PS and BE/CDU, Catarina Martins, BE leader, has already responded by rejecting a 3 year deal and defending 1 year deals. She also said that any negotiations between them and the PS has to take into account what the government implemented from the 2020 budget and added that they will only accept a deal that reforms the labour laws, increases spending in the NHS and ends the State support for the Novo Banco.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 23, 2020, 12:07:44 PM
Controversy as a leaked video shows PM António Costa calling "cowards" to doctors:


Quote
António Costa's 'off-the-record' video released calling doctors "cowards"

An "off the record" video of António Costa's interview tp Expresso newspaper was leaked today. The 7 second video, shows Costa talking to the 2 reporters, that conducted the interview, in a heated manner and accusing medical doctors of being "cowards", as he's referring to the ongoing controversy surrounding the Reguengos de Monsaraz nursing home report. The context of the conversation is unknown and the video seems to be taped from a screen of a computer.

Expresso newspaper has already responded to the leak saying the leak is illegal, (https://expresso.pt/comunicados/2020-08-23-Nota-da-direcao-do-Expresso) out of context and will start an investigation to find who leaked the video. Medical unions and the Medical Bar Association have also reacted to the video saying they repudiate (https://eco.sapo.pt/2020/08/23/divulgado-video-off-the-record-de-antonio-costa-a-chamar-cobardes-a-medicos/) the words of the Prime Minister and demand an apology.

The Reguengos de Monsaraz controversy continues...


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 24, 2020, 01:07:40 PM
The leaked video controversy continues as the Medical Bar Association demanded an emergency meeting with Costa. Costa accepted and the meeting will be held tomorrow:


Quote
Doctors: Medical Bar Association asks António Costa for an urgent meeting. Prime Minister scheduled for tomorrow

The controversy surrounding the mysterious 7 second leaked video of Costa calling doctors "cowards" continues as the Medical Bar Association demanded an urgent meeting with the PM, meeting Costa accepted and will happen tomorrow. The origin of the leaked video is fault of Expresso newspaper after all. After the newspaper announced the leak was illegal and started an investigation, they found that the video was sent by mistake to all news outlets and are now acknowledging their mistake.  (https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/08/24/politica/off-the-record-expresso-admite-erro-em-video-de-antonio-costa-que-caiu-nas-redes-sociais/noticia/204580/?utm_medium=rss)Expresso also asked for the video to be deleted from social media.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, commented the controversy by saying that we should be grateful for all the doctors who put their lives at risk during this pandemic. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-08-24-Rui-Rio-Esmagadora-maioria-dos-medicos-teve-comportamento-exemplar) He added that the government should release their own report on the conditions of the nursing home to compare it with the Bar association' one. The Health secretary, António Lacerda, also reacted to the controversy and defended the PM by saying that Costa has always been alongside the health professionals. (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/covid-19-acompanhe-aqui-a-conferencia-de-imprensa)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 25, 2020, 08:58:09 AM
Azores 2020 regional election timetable released:  (http://www.cne.pt/news/alraa-2020-mapa-calendario_6789)

Until 31 August: Final map of distribution of seats by island;
14 September: Final day to deliver party candidacies lists;
15 October: Final day to register for early voting;
18 October: Early voting day;
Between 11 and 23 October: Official campaign period;
24 October: Reflection day (campaign events and propaganda are forbidden);
25 October: Election day, polls open from 8am to 7pm;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 25, 2020, 11:09:10 AM
Truce is set between Costa and the Medical Bar Association after their meeting this morning:


Quote
Videos - António Costa underlines "consideration for doctors" at the end of the meeting with the Bar Association

The more than 2 hour long meeting between the PM and the Medical Bar Association ended in a truce between both sides. At the end of the meeting both the PM and the Medical Bar Association President said that their differences were resolved with Costa saying he has an enormous esteem and consideration for all the work doctors are doing during this pandemic. The President of Medical Bar Association, Miguel Guimarães, thanked the PM for accepting the meeting and for having a "honest and frank" conversation with them.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 25, 2020, 07:31:33 PM
Businessman files a court complaint to forbid PCP's Avante Festival:


Quote
Businessman delivered precautionary measure to prevent the Avante Party - RTP Notícias

A businessman has file a court complaint, a precautionary measure, in Seixal court to ban PCP' Avante Festival which is schedule to start next week. The man in question is a event businessman and the president of a local football club. The complaint doesn't talk about politics, it seems, and only talks about that this event is like many others that have been canceled during the Ovid-19 pandemic. As this is a urgent complaint, a judge will hear both sides and take a decision to either accept of deny the complaint in the next few days.

The realization of this annual festival, organized by the Communist Party, has been involved in controversy since the beginning as many event businesses criticize the different treatment this festival is having, plus parties on the right, especially the PSD, have been pounding the PCP for maintaining the festival, with PSD leader Rui Rio mocking the Communists constantly on twitter.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 26, 2020, 11:11:17 AM
Truce is set between Costa and the Medical Bar Association after their meeting this morning:

Well, it didn't last long it seems: Bar Association President says that Costa didn't told the press what he actually said in the meeting.


Quote
The mood between the Order of Doctors and the Prime Minister goes sour again

A truce seemed to be set, yesterday, between Costa and the Bar Association, but in an email sent to Bar Associates late yesterday evening by Miguel Guimarães, President of the Medical Bar Association, suggests that in his mind Costa was disloyal by not telling the press what he truly said in the meeting. He says the PM, during the meeting, was very sincere and supportive of medical professionals and that his words in the leaked video didn't reflect his real opinions. However, Mr Guimarães says that in front of the press, Costa wasn't that honest and frontal as he was with him. He added he could not contradict the PM as he talked before him.

Also, regarding the PCP's Avante Festival:
Businessman files a court complaint to forbid PCP's Avante Festival:

A Seixal court judge has sent the complaint to a Lisbon court as the PCP headquarters is in Lisbon. (https://www.jn.pt/justica/tribunal-do-seixal-envia-para-lisboa-providencia-cautelar-contra-festa-do-avante-12554521.html) More details about the businessman in question are also being revealed as he was a PSD candidate in the 2013 local elections in Moura, Beja district. He polled just 10.6% of the votes.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 28, 2020, 05:18:12 AM
The end of the Alliance? Santana Lopes leaves the leadership of the party he founded 2 years ago.


Quote
Political parties: Santana Lopes will leave the presidency of the Alliance.

Santana Lopes has floated with idea for some time now after the party's disastrous result in 2019, but now it seems that he made a decision. Santana Lopes will not run again for the leadership of the party he created 2 years ago after his split with the PSD and will focus more on his professional life. The party will choose a new leader in a party congress in late September. The role Santana will have in the party is still unknown. The Alliance could follow the path of Marinho Pinho's PDR after he also left the leadership, as PDR drooped from 1.1% in 2015 to 0.2% in 2019.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 28, 2020, 09:05:55 AM
Azores regional elections: No change in seats distribution by islands.  (http://www.cne.pt/news/alraa-2020-mapa-de-deputados-e-sua-distribuicao-pelos-circulos_6791)

The Electoral Commission has published the final map of seats by island/constituency for the 25 October regional elections in the Azores. There are no changes compared with 2016. The distribution is the following:

  2 Corvo
  4 Faial
  3 Flores
  3 Graciosa
  4 Pico
  3 Santa Maria
  3 São Jorge
20 São Miguel
10 Terceira
  5 Compensation

There are also 228,572 voters registered for the elections, a drop of 313 voters compared with 2016, and a drop of 382 compared with the 2019 general elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Velasco on August 28, 2020, 10:35:45 AM
Azores 2020 regional election timetable released:  (http://www.cne.pt/news/alraa-2020-mapa-calendario_6789)

Until 31 August: Final map of distribution of seats by island;
14 September: Final day to deliver party candidacies lists;
15 October: Final day to register for early voting;
18 October: Early voting day;
Between 11 and 23 October: Official campaign period;
24 October: Reflection day (campaign events and propaganda are forbidden);
25 October: Election day, polls open from 8am to 7pm;

I wasn't aware you have a "reflection day" too. Thought it was a Spanish anachronism, but I see we're not alone


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 28, 2020, 10:42:28 AM
Azores 2020 regional election timetable released:  (http://www.cne.pt/news/alraa-2020-mapa-calendario_6789)

Until 31 August: Final map of distribution of seats by island;
14 September: Final day to deliver party candidacies lists;
15 October: Final day to register for early voting;
18 October: Early voting day;
Between 11 and 23 October: Official campaign period;
24 October: Reflection day (campaign events and propaganda are forbidden);
25 October: Election day, polls open from 8am to 7pm;

I wasn't aware you have a "reflection day" too. Thought it was a Spanish anachronism, but I see we're not alone
Yeah, I believe in Spain no one knows also the point of it. And here it makes even less sense since early voting was allowed to all voters, meaning you can go vote with all of the election buzz and propaganda everywhere. But, it is what it is.

I believe the only difference between Portugal and Spain, regarding election campaigns, is that Portugal allows polls to be published until the last day of campaign, while Spain forbides polling in the last week of campaign.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 28, 2020, 12:34:20 PM
Party meetings for the 2021 budget: PAN unhappy with the government, PCP requested a rescheduling of the meeting and BE didn't talked to the press.


Quote
State Budget: PAN leaves meeting with Government dissatisfied with environmental proposals

PM António Costa started, today, to call leftwing parties to talk to them about possible policies and support for the 2021 budget. Costa has been asking for a long term deal between the PS and leftwing parties, but, so far, it's a long shot. The first party to be received by the PM was BE, but they left the meeting without talking to the press and PAN, after the meeting, said they were disappointed with the government's environmental policies. The most tense situation seems to be with PCP, as Costa invited them but they refuse but asked for a rescheduling of the meeting after the first weekend of September.

The President has already warned that there cannot be a political crisis (https://www.publico.pt/2020/08/27/politica/noticia/marcelo-rebelo-sousa-presidente-nao-vai-alinhar-crises-politicas-1929497) because, a) between September 2020 and March 2021, the President cannot call elections due to the 2021 presidential elections, and b) creating a political crisis in this period is just "fiction". PSD leader, Rui Rio, also agreed with the President saying the President's words were "common sense".

As of the current standings, it's very likely that the 2021 budget will be a repeat of the 2020 budget vote, with the PS being the only party approving it, and with the abstention of BE, CDU and PAN, and the vote against of all the right, PSD, CDS, IL and CHEGA. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 29, 2020, 06:34:49 AM
Tense moment in Porto's book fair between Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and a woman criticizing the government:


Quote
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: "Tell the Portuguese to vote for another government." (2020)

It was a tense and awkward moment what happened yesterday in Porto's book fair. The President was visiting books tents when a woman, visibly angry, confronted the President with criticisms towards Costa and his government. The woman criticized the bailouts for TAP, Novo Banco and said there's nothing for her and small business owners. The President, visibly upset, said that it was the Portuguese people that chose the government and that the woman should tell the people to vote for another government. The back and forward between Marcelo and this woman lasted almost 15 minutes and it was all taped by the media. Pundits say Marcelo was caught by surprise but that he slipped by answering that way to the woman. Some PS MPs aren't also very pleased with the response. (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/deputado-do-ps-diz-que-marcelo-rebelo-de-sousa-preferiu-atacar-o-governo-630574)

This event happens as the PM António Costa is threatening with a political crisis if there's no deal for the 2021 budget, and putting pressure on BE and CDU:


Quote
António Costa: “If there is no agreement, it is simple: there is no Budget and there is a political crisis”

Costa also added that if the government is dependent on the PSD, it will be the end of his government, at the same time PSD leader, Rui Rio, says that his party will only be a spectator during the budget negotiations and that the 2021 budget draft is the full responsibility of the PS and leftwing parties.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 30, 2020, 05:24:36 PM
Avante festival: Businesses in Amora, Seixal, will close during the festival.


Quote
"We don't want the Avante Party." Amora merchants close doors in protest

Until now, more than 30 businesses, restaurants, shops and others, in Amora, Seixal, where the PCP's Avante festival will happen, have decided to shut their doors during the festival next weekend. The owner of a restaurant started the movement and she says many more businesses will join in an close during the 3 days of the festival. This owner says that she will lose money but that she rather wants to close for 3 days than 3 weeks, adding that many people in the parish of Amora are fearfull and some will leave the city during the weekend. She added that others that will stay in the city will put black cloths in their windows to protest against the PCP' festival.

The controversy about this festival continues this weekend with pundits hammering the Communists for their stubbornness in holding the event, and just today Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa criticized the General Department of Health (DGS) for not publicly detailing the rules the festival has to follow. (https://www.dn.pt/poder/presidente-da-republica-preocupado-com-falta-de-regras-para-festa-do-avante--12566206.html) The DGS has already said they will not release the rules but said that they have already sent the rules to the PCP and they can publicate them if they want.

And in the backdrop of all of this is the threat of a "political crisis" from the part of PM Costa after his interview to Expresso newspaper. BE and CDU have already criticized Costa for threatening them and PSD mocked the "love proposal" Costa is giving to BE and CDU. President Marcelo has, once again, said no snap elections will be called and that he "has all the aces":


Quote
Marcelo responds to the threat of political crisis. "The knife and cheese are in the President's hands"

Pundits seem quite stunned with Costa's interview as he seemed worried and stressed, hinting that this threat to the leftwing parties will not work and possibly backfire, and that he knows that no elections can be called so, all of this seems to be "political theater". However, they point the optics of all of this are very bad.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on August 31, 2020, 11:01:43 AM
Avante festival: DGS is forced to release their report after pressures from the President, media and opposition.


Quote
Festa do Avante!: Maximum capacity of 16,500 people and alcohol forbidden after 8 pm

The General Department of Health (DGS) was forced to make a U-turn and publish their report on the condition to hold the PCP's Avante festival. During yesterday, the President, media and the opposition hammered the DGS for not wanting to publish the report and demanded the government to take action. During the morning, Costa announced that the report would become public by lunch time. The report allows 16,500 per day in the festival, everyone above 10 years old has to wear a mask, sell of alcohol is forbidden after 8pm, and in the main stage and other gathering only 2,000-2,500 will be allowed at the same time. The PCP has already criticized the report saying it's to harsh compared to other events and that they will present their own plan later today. The party added that there's an ongoing "reactionary campaign" against them.

At the same time, PM Costa was in Coimbra city in a PS forum to debate answers for the future of Portugal post-Covid 19:


Quote
PS: Consensus will be needed to restore the country, appeals António Costa

In his speech the PM didn't talked about the leftwing parties nor did he dramatized "a political crisis", rather he asked for a broad economic, social and political consensus to overtake the current crisis. His deputy, Ana Catarina Mendes, talked about the leftwing party, unlike Costa, and asked for their sense of responsibility and to put Portugal's interest above party interests.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 01, 2020, 01:11:35 PM
Azores regional elections: PS campaign asks voters, on social media, to vote on the best election poster.


Quote
Azoreans called to choose new PS Açores campaign billboards

The PS campaign for the Azores regional elections is asking voters, on social media, to vote on the best election poster for the October elections. The party is proposing 4 choices, all with the photo of the PS candidate, Vasco Cordeiro, but with backgrounds and different slogans. The vote is by likes and emojis. The winner will be announced on September 8th and by the next day, the chosen poster will be placed across the 9 islands of the Azores.

In my opinion, all 4 are quite average, nothing different or new compared with other election posters.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 02, 2020, 12:24:49 PM
Azores regional elections: BE files complaint to the police after several campaign posters were vandalized with swastikas.


Quote
Regional elections: Azores: BE complains about vandalized posters with swastikas

The BE-Azores has filed a complaint after several of their campaign posters for the regional elections were vandalized and swastikas drawn on them. The posters were located in Angra do Heroísmo, Azores 2nd largest city, in 3 different parishes. The party filed a complaint to the police. The party regrets the financial loss of these acts of vandalism, and says these acts are "a sign of disrespect and contempt for the democracy".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 02, 2020, 05:01:35 PM
Many personalities, including former PMs Cavaco Silva and Passos Coelho, sign a petition to allow parents to object their children to attend Citizenship Education classes:


Quote
Cavaco, Passos and D. Manuel Clemente defend conscientious objection from parents who do not want children in Citizenship Education classes

The controversy started, early this summer, when 2 students from Vila Nova de Famalicão were forbidden to advance to the following school year, and forced to repeat their current one, because they didn't attend Citizenship Education classes, a class where a wide range of topics like human rights, gender equality and sexuality are discussed, by their parents order. The parents of these two students sued the school and a Braga court has suspended the students retention in the same school year. Nonetheless, several high profile personalities, mainly from the right, have signed a petition to allow parents to object their children to attend these classes. The petition has the signature of former PM and President Cavaco Silva, former PM Passos Coelho, the Cardinal of Lisbon and the current deputy of Rui Rio, David Justino.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 03, 2020, 05:22:14 AM
Avante festival: Lisbon court rejects complaint to block the PCP's festival:  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/tribunal-nao-aceitou-a-providencia-cautelar-que-pretendia-travar-a-festa-do-avante)

A judge in a Lisbon court has rejected a complaint, filed by a local businessman and former PSD candidate, to forbid the realization of the PCP's Avante festival. The judge says the complaint cannot go ahead as "it is public and clear the existence of rules, by Health authorities, for the safety of the event". The businessman, who filed the complaint, accepts the courts decision but says there's "inconsistencies by the criteria given to different events". Today, there will be a slow march of cars in Seixal against the Avante festival.  (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/pais/1575552/avante-moradores-do-seixal-marcam-marcha-lenta-contra-evento)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 04, 2020, 05:00:38 PM
Avante festival starts in Seixal: (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-09-04-Um-arranque-triste-para-um-Avante-sob-ataque-O-que-esta-em-causa-nao-e-a-Festa-e-o-partido)


Quote
Avante starts slowly: the images of the first day

The PCP's Avante festival started this afternoon in Seixal. The festival started with many PCP supporters and members angry at the PS, the right and the media for the way the festival and the PCP was treated in the last few weeks. Many say that it isn't the festival that is being attack but it's the party and that this will unite even more the party. The festival will last until Sunday and will have concerts and will end with the speech of PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, on Sunday.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has said, once again, he's worried about the festival (https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2020-09-04-Marcelo-teme-que-Avante-manche-a-imagem-do-pais) and he's not very optimist. He's also worried about the festival damaging Portugal's image in the international stage. The PSD youth wing, JSD, has also filed a complaint to the police after a billboard of the PSD criticizing the Avante festival was removed (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-09-04-Cartaz-contra-Festa-do-Avante-retirado.-JSD-vai-apresentar-queixa-crime) 5 hours after it was presented. It was located near one of the festival's entrances.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 04, 2020, 07:57:13 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Marisa Matias (BE) will run again:


Quote
Presidential elections: BE enters the race for the presidential elections with Marisa Matias.

Marisa Matias, current BE MEP, will run for the 2021 Presidential elections. The official announcement will occur next Wednesday, but the BE campaign has already confirmed to the media that she's in the race. Marisa Matias ran in 2016 and achieved 10.1% of the votes, the highest share for a female candidate in a presidential election till date. She's also the 4th candidate to announce a candidacy for the 2021 January presidential elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 05, 2020, 06:58:39 AM
Controversy as many media outlets were banned from an anti-corruption press conference by the Justice minister:


Quote
Restricting Press at conferences is "aberrant"

The controversy started this week when the Justice minister called a limited and chosen number of media outlets to cover her conference on the government's strategy on fighting corruption. The government says the restrictions were due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but some media outlets, like Jornal de Notícias, are comparing this to Donald Trump's actions towards the press and add that the pandemic cannot be an excuse. Many constitutional law especialits are also appalled by the government's action saying the government actions violate freedom of the press.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 05, 2020, 10:54:30 AM
Polling update:

It seems that Eurosondagem has stop polling. Normally they released their polls on the first days of every month, but since the last one, in early July, no poll was released.

Nonetheless, the current polling average is as follows: (from here (https://filipvanlaenen.github.io/portuguese_ep_polls/average.html))

39.8% PS, 113 seats
26.0% PSD, 73
  7.8% BE, 16
  6.3% CHEGA, 10
  6.0% CDU, 10
  3.0% PAN, 3
  2.8% CDS, 3
  2.2% IL, 2
  0.3% Livre, 0
  0.0% Alliance, 0
  5.8% Others/Invalid, 0

Next week, we'll probably have some polling, maybe from Aximage and Intercampus, and we'll see if the latest big political events, the threat of a political crisis by Costa and the Avante festival fallout, had any impact in voting intentions.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 05, 2020, 04:47:13 PM
CHEGA leadership elections: Ventura is reelected and party members refuse the death penalty.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-09-05-Andre-Ventura-reeleito-lider-do-Chega-com-994-dos-votos)

CHEGA party held, today, a leadership elections and an intern referendum regarding the death penalty. The leadership elections were called last March, when Ventura accused some members of his party of plotting against him and called an election and challenged them to run against him. No one ran against Ventura and he was overwhelmingly reelected. Party members also struck down the party support for the death penalty for violent crimes, like terrorism, rape, sexual abuse of minors and qualified homicide. More than 11,000 CHEGA members were registered to vote and around 40% cast a ballot. The results were the following:

Leadership election:

99.1% André Ventura
  0.9% Blank/Invalid

Death penalty for violent crimes:

56% No
44% Yes


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 06, 2020, 06:33:31 AM
Many personalities, including former PMs Cavaco Silva and Passos Coelho, sign a petition to allow parents to object their children to attend Citizenship Education classes:

Counter petition in favour of Citizenship Education classes has more than 500 personalities, as of one of the students parents asks for the resignation the Education Secretary:


Quote
Petition with 500 subscribers defends that "citizenship is not an option"

After a petition suggesting that parents should object their children to attend Citizenship Education classes was revealed and supported by many personalities like Cavaco Silva, Passos Coelho and the Cardinal of Lisbon, a counter petition signed by more than 500 personalities, and growing, defends the classes and adds that "citizenship is not an option". The main signatures are Ana Gomes, possible candidate in the 2021 presidential elections, Pedro Bacelar de Vasconcelos and Daniel Oliveira.

At the same time, one of the fathers of the students has written an open letter to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa asking to support the resignation of the Education secretary (https://observador.pt/2020/09/05/cidadania-pai-envia-carta-aberta-a-marcelo-e-diz-que-acusacao-de-secretario-de-estado-e-gratuita-e-grosseira/), João Costa, after Mr Costa wrote an op-ed in Público newspaper accusing the parents of using their children as political props in a ideological campaign. The parent in question says he was shocked by the words of the Education secretary and that he was disrespectful to his family and has no ethics to be a government official.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 07, 2020, 06:39:17 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Ana Gomes is also in.


Quote
Presidential elections: Ana Gomes is a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic

According to Público newspaper, Ana Gomes, former PS MEP, will run for the 2021 Presidential elections. She has confirmed this to the newspaper and an official statement will be made this Thursday. Ms Gomes will be the 5th candidate to announce a candidacy for the January 2021 elections. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, incumbent President, is expected to announce his candidacy during November and the PCP will announce a candidate during the current month of September.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 08, 2020, 04:55:11 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Twitter meltdown of André Ventura after Ana Gomes confirms her run for the presidency.

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, lashed out against Ana Gomes and had a mini meltdown on Twitter, accusing Ana Gomes of the candidate of the minorities and says he will resign from party leader if she polls ahead of him in the elections:


Quote
Ana Gomes is going to be the worst presidential candidate ever: hysterical, obsessed with her pet enemies, friend of the minorities who live off our work. If she happens to poll in front of me, I would resign as leader of the Chega. It will not happen!

Well, the race is on. The debates will be... interesting.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: VPH on September 08, 2020, 10:34:57 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Twitter meltdown of André Ventura after Ana Gomes confirms her run for the presidency.

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, lashed out against Ana Gomes and had a mini meltdown on Twitter, accusing Ana Gomes of the candidate of the minorities and says he will resign from party leader if she polls ahead of him in the elections:


Quote
Ana Gomes is going to be the worst presidential candidate ever: hysterical, obsessed with her pet enemies, friend of the minorities who live off our work. If she happens to poll in front of me, I would resign as leader of the Chega. It will not happen!

Well, the race is on. The debates will be... interesting.

It does seem sort of pointless for Gomes to run when Matias is too. But at the end of the day I think Marcelo will win big so Ventura is over here poking fights to see who loses really badly.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 08, 2020, 10:52:01 AM
It does seem sort of pointless for Gomes to run when Matias is too. But at the end of the day I think Marcelo will win big so Ventura is over here poking fights to see who loses really badly.

Well, I somewhat disagree with that. Polling suggests that Marisa Matias may not be a factor this time around like she was 5 years ago, and Gomes and Ventura could benefit from a forgone conclusion election. Marcelo will be reelected, that's not the issue, but, will it be a strong reelection or a weak reelection? And here, both Ana Gomes and Ventura can appeal to possible PSD or PS voters who would have voted Marcelo: Gomes can appeal to PS voters who don't see themselves voting for Marcelo, and she can also appeal to some PSD voters, like myself, who are a bit fed up with Marcelo and like her message of anti-corruption and, a bit, anti-establishment. Ventura can appeal to PSD voters furious with Marcelo for helping too much Costa and, a bit like Ana Gomes, appeal with his anti-corruption, anti-establishment message.

Once again, Marcelo's reelection isn't in doubt, every President is always reelected, but this may not be the "walk on the park" Marcelo and many others were predicting.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 08, 2020, 01:02:37 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Two more candidates in the race.


Quote
Presidential. From André Ventura to Tino de Rans, there are already eight pre-candidates for Belém

Tino de Rans, his real name is Vitorino Silva, is back and will run for the 2021 Presidential elections. After his new party, React, Include, Recycle (RIR), polled 0.67% in the 2019 elections, just 5,000 votes bellow Santana Lopes Alliance party, and his 6th place showing in the 2016 presidential elections, Tino de Rans says he will file his name and run for the election, adding his goal is to fight populisms. The other candidate is Orlando Cruz, who tried to run in 2016 but failed to gather enough signatures.

The PCP also updated the press about their candidate, announcing that the name will probably be revealed next weekend.

With the PCP unknown candidate, a total of 8 candidates have announced their intention to run in the 2021 January presidential elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2020, 12:33:32 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Marisa Matias, BE candidate, officially announces her run in Lisbon.


Quote
Marisa Matias runs “face to face” with Marcelo and against fear

Marisa Matias, BE candidate, officially launched her run for the January 2021 elections in Lisbon, most precisely in Carmo square, where the 1974 Carnation revolution occurred. In an event without any party leaders, just ordinary supporters, Ms Matias said she will the candidate "against fear" and that she would fight for those who have the courage to help others. The supporters in the event were nurses, doctors, teachers, scientists and front line workers like bus drivers and shop workers.

Tomorrow, Ana Gomes will also officially present her candidacy.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: VPH on September 09, 2020, 08:44:53 PM
It does seem sort of pointless for Gomes to run when Matias is too. But at the end of the day I think Marcelo will win big so Ventura is over here poking fights to see who loses really badly.

Well, I somewhat disagree with that. Polling suggests that Marisa Matias may not be a factor this time around like she was 5 years ago, and Gomes and Ventura could benefit from a forgone conclusion election. Marcelo will be reelected, that's not the issue, but, will it be a strong reelection or a weak reelection? And here, both Ana Gomes and Ventura can appeal to possible PSD or PS voters who would have voted Marcelo: Gomes can appeal to PS voters who don't see themselves voting for Marcelo, and she can also appeal to some PSD voters, like myself, who are a bit fed up with Marcelo and like her message of anti-corruption and, a bit, anti-establishment. Ventura can appeal to PSD voters furious with Marcelo for helping too much Costa and, a bit like Ana Gomes, appeal with his anti-corruption, anti-establishment message.

Once again, Marcelo's reelection isn't in doubt, every President is always reelected, but this may not be the "walk on the park" Marcelo and many others were predicting.

Fair enough. I think my grandpa is voting for Ventura over Marcelo. I voted PS in the Legislativas but will be voting for Marcelo this time as long as I don't have to physically go to the consulate in Newark to vote.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 10, 2020, 02:44:36 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Twitter meltdown of André Ventura after Ana Gomes confirms her run for the presidency.

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, lashed out against Ana Gomes and had a mini meltdown on Twitter, accusing Ana Gomes of the candidate of the minorities and says he will resign from party leader if she polls ahead of him in the elections:

https://twitter.com/AndreCVentura/status/1303130317365096448
Quote
Ana Gomes is going to be the worst presidential candidate ever: hysterical, obsessed with her pet enemies, friend of the minorities who live off our work. If she happens to poll in front of me, I would resign as leader of the Chega. It will not happen!

Well, the race is on. The debates will be... interesting.

Ouch!

Where is the cancel culture woke mob for this racist misogynist?

(/s but actually not)

By the way: which groups do people usually refer to when they say "minorities" in Portugal?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2020, 05:25:04 AM
Fair enough. I think my grandpa is voting for Ventura over Marcelo. I voted PS in the Legislativas but will be voting for Marcelo this time as long as I don't have to physically go to the consulate in Newark to vote.

Unfortunately, vote by mail isn't allowed for the presidential election, only in person vote. A stupid, really stupid thing. They've change it for the general elections, but not for the presidential elections. Maybe, by November, MPs will draft a quick change to allow it, but I'm skeptical.

And, in my opinion, vote by-mail should be allowed to very single registered voter, in Portugal and outside. And because of the pandemic, maybe it will be a future change. Fingers crossed.

Ouch!

Where is the cancel culture woke mob for this racist misogynist?

(/s but actually not)

By the way: which groups do people usually refer to when they say "minorities" in Portugal?

There was a big uproar on the media and social media because of this tweet, like almost always when Ventura tweets something. Pundits accuse Ventura of using everything to gain votes and social media accuses him of being, like you said, misogynist and racist. The minorities he's talking is most likely the gypsy community, a community he is, constantly, insulting and accusing of living of state money.

Also, he has called Marisa Matias, BE candidate, the "marijuana candidate" and a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 10, 2020, 05:37:00 AM
Ouch!

Where is the cancel culture woke mob for this racist misogynist?

(/s but actually not)

By the way: which groups do people usually refer to when they say "minorities" in Portugal?

There was a big uproar on the media and social media because of this tweet, like almost always when Ventura tweets something. Pundits accuse Ventura of using everything to gain votes and social media accuses him of being, like you said, misogynist and racist. The minorities he's talking is most likely the gypsy community, a community he is, constantly, insulting and accusing of living of state money.

Also, he has called Marisa Matias, BE candidate, the "marijuana candidate" and a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta".

Good to know that Portugal has a little Trump growing.

Also, anti-ziganism is a state of mind in Europe, sadly, but I find his wording particularly strange. In Italy I am used to rhetoric that calls the Roma by name.

For Matias, if she really is a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta", I'd vote for her immediately haha.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2020, 06:01:41 AM

Good to know that Portugal has a little Trump growing.

Also, anti-ziganism is a state of mind in Europe, sadly, but I find his wording particularly strange. In Italy I am used to rhetoric that calls the Roma by name.

For Matias, if she really is a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta", I'd vote for her immediately haha.

The term we use, here in Portugal, is "ciganos". This community has always been target of attacks in the past curiously by basically all major parties, from PS to CDS, but Ventura and his party have now the monopoly to the attacks towards the gypsy community.

About Ventura being a little Trump, I think that maybe that's more a compliment to him. Trump always had a pattern on women, minorities, you name it, while Ventura, in my view, is full blown opportunist who made a 180º change of his beliefs in just 2/3 years. In the past, as a young college grad student, Ventura was in favour of abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage and that church should not influence politics, particularly on gender politics. He also defended, in his academic thesis, that minorities are being hurt and stigmatized and came out against the "penal populism", meaning politicians that punish minorities in order to be popular with voters. He also defended more immigration to Portugal.

Now, he's against everything that is written above and his defense is that he was too young back then and that, about his thesis, he separates science from politics.

About what he said about Marisa Matias, I don't know what that even means, to be honest. It's just some lame attack, frankly.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 10, 2020, 06:09:27 AM
Good to know that Portugal has a little Trump growing.

Also, anti-ziganism is a state of mind in Europe, sadly, but I find his wording particularly strange. In Italy I am used to rhetoric that calls the Roma by name.

For Matias, if she really is a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta", I'd vote for her immediately haha.

The term we use, here in Portugal, is "ciganos". This community has always been target of attacks in the past curiously by basically all major parties, from PS to CDS, but Ventura and his party have now the monopoly to the attacks towards the gypsy community.

About Ventura being a little Trump, I think that maybe that's more a compliment to him. Trump always had a pattern on women, minorities, you name it, while Ventura, in my view, is full blown opportunist who made a 180º change of his beliefs in just 2/3 years. In the past, as a young college grad student, Ventura was in favour of abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage and that church should not influence politics, particularly on gender politics. He also defended, in his academic thesis, that minorities are being hurt and stigmatized and came out against the "penal populism", meaning politicians that punish minorities in order to be popular with voters. He also defended more immigration to Portugal.

Now, he's against everything that is written above and his defense is that he was too young back then and that, about his thesis, he separates science from politics.

About what he said about Marisa Matias, I don't know what that even means, to be honest. It's just some lame attack, frankly.

Trump has always had a pattern on women and minorities but he is an opportunist too. He used to be vocally pro-choice, once talked about higher taxes on the wealthy, and so on.

I imagine that the comment about Matias is a way to disparage her as some kind of misguided idealist who fetishizes the poor and the immigrants.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2020, 06:21:54 AM
Good to know that Portugal has a little Trump growing.

Also, anti-ziganism is a state of mind in Europe, sadly, but I find his wording particularly strange. In Italy I am used to rhetoric that calls the Roma by name.

For Matias, if she really is a "somewhat Communist Mother Teresa of Calcutta", I'd vote for her immediately haha.

The term we use, here in Portugal, is "ciganos". This community has always been target of attacks in the past curiously by basically all major parties, from PS to CDS, but Ventura and his party have now the monopoly to the attacks towards the gypsy community.

About Ventura being a little Trump, I think that maybe that's more a compliment to him. Trump always had a pattern on women, minorities, you name it, while Ventura, in my view, is full blown opportunist who made a 180º change of his beliefs in just 2/3 years. In the past, as a young college grad student, Ventura was in favour of abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage and that church should not influence politics, particularly on gender politics. He also defended, in his academic thesis, that minorities are being hurt and stigmatized and came out against the "penal populism", meaning politicians that punish minorities in order to be popular with voters. He also defended more immigration to Portugal.

Now, he's against everything that is written above and his defense is that he was too young back then and that, about his thesis, he separates science from politics.

About what he said about Marisa Matias, I don't know what that even means, to be honest. It's just some lame attack, frankly.

Trump has always had a pattern on women and minorities but he is an opportunist too. He used to be vocally pro-choice, once talked about higher taxes on the wealthy, and so on.

I imagine that the comment about Matias is a way to disparage her as some kind of misguided idealist who fetishizes the poor and the immigrants.

Fair point. Trump had always that "thing" in him, and maybe his more moderate stands in past was a way to be in good terms with the NY celebrity world. My hunch is that Ventura, and this is my opinion, still has some of the same personal positions he had as a grad student and during his thesis, but he changed them, at least in the public realm, in order to have a political future as he realized he would never rise in the ranks of his former party, the PSD, after those gypsy comments in 2017. He also was cleaver to realize that a considerable chunk of the electorate, more conservative and angry, was left without a party as CDS become more and more moderate.

Of course, the same can also be said about Trump.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 10, 2020, 08:16:03 AM
The thing about most "new right" populists (Trump/Bolsonaro/Johnson and now Ventura) is that outside their core "ideology" of nationalism they are pretty opportunist (or if you prefer "flexible") on most things. Its one of the factors that complicates effective attacks on them.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2020, 09:33:08 AM
The thing about most "new right" populists (Trump/Bolsonaro/Johnson and now Ventura) is that outside their core "ideology" of nationalism they are pretty opportunist (or if you prefer "flexible") on most things. Its one of the factors that complicates effective attacks on them.

Indeed, and I forgot to mention another similarity, this time yes, with Trump: the anti-corruption disconnection. Ventura likes to talk about how corrupt the system is and that he will fight against corruption, but he has a problem in here: Benfica. I'm no Benfica fan, far from it, but there's no doubt that the level of corruption in Portuguese football is overwhelming, not to mention the political connections. Ventura has a problem here as his anti-corruption message hits a wall as Benfica is being investigated because of several corrupt schemes and Ventura is known to be a huge Benfica defender as he was a TV commentator that, each night, defended Benfica from corruption accusation, sometimes in tense clashes. Many of them have been revealed by hacker Rui Pinto, whose trial is beginning but the police wants to use him to dig up more stuff regarding corruption in Portugal. The recent revelation is that Benfica's president, Luís Filipe Vieira, has connections with Odebrecht corrupt deals.

Ana Gomes is a huge defender of Rui Pinto and has attacked deeply the corrupt connections of Benfica and Portuguese football. This will probably come up during the Presidential debates. And when you mix, football and politics in Portugal, the combination can be explosive.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2020, 11:18:11 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Ana Gomes launches her candidacy.


Quote
Ana Gomes presents candidacy for the Presidency in the name of freedom and democracy

Ana Gomes is officially in the run for the January 2021 elections. She presented her candidacy in the Press House, in Lisbon, in front of reporters. She said she's running for the Presidency because democracy is in danger and that the fight against inequality, injustice and corruption will be the main flags of her campaign, adding that part of the system has been corroding. She added that citizens cannot be pushed to the sidelines anymore as they will fall in the hands of "false prophets".

She also criticized the PS, and indirectly António Costa, for downplaying the presidential elections and that she could not "defect" in these times and will be a voice for the moderate left.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on September 10, 2020, 11:42:11 AM
Ventura is a very intelligent and unprincipled man who saw his chance for power and took it. It's very obvious that he doesn't believe what he preaches in the slightest. However I don't understand his move saying he'll resign if Ana Gomes beats him. He couldn't have done her a bigger favor and I dare say he may have ensured that she will beat him.

Aside from both being female left-wingers with EU experience I don't see that much overlap between Marisa and Ana. Marisa is a standard BE candidate for BE voters and is essentially standing as the face of a party and focusing on their pet issues. Gomes has a much more widespread appeal and running as an independent with her reputation as a brave anti-corruption maverick rather than being a PS apparatchik is the strongest point in her favor.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 10, 2020, 04:16:45 PM
Ventura is a very intelligent and unprincipled man who saw his chance for power and took it. It's very obvious that he doesn't believe what he preaches in the slightest. However I don't understand his move saying he'll resign if Ana Gomes beats him. He couldn't have done her a bigger favor and I dare say he may have ensured that she will beat him.

Aside from both being female left-wingers with EU experience I don't see that much overlap between Marisa and Ana. Marisa is a standard BE candidate for BE voters and is essentially standing as the face of a party and focusing on their pet issues. Gomes has a much more widespread appeal and running as an independent with her reputation as a brave anti-corruption maverick rather than being a PS apparatchik is the strongest point in her favor.

That sounds like a gigantic self-own, true.

On the other hand he may find a way not to respect his pledge anyways.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2020, 04:42:13 PM
Ventura is a very intelligent and unprincipled man who saw his chance for power and took it. It's very obvious that he doesn't believe what he preaches in the slightest. However I don't understand his move saying he'll resign if Ana Gomes beats him. He couldn't have done her a bigger favor and I dare say he may have ensured that she will beat him.

Aside from both being female left-wingers with EU experience I don't see that much overlap between Marisa and Ana. Marisa is a standard BE candidate for BE voters and is essentially standing as the face of a party and focusing on their pet issues. Gomes has a much more widespread appeal and running as an independent with her reputation as a brave anti-corruption maverick rather than being a PS apparatchik is the strongest point in her favor.

That sounds like a gigantic self-own, true.

On the other hand he may find a way not to respect his pledge anyways.

Of course he will. That's not even in doubt. He may "resign" and do a whole dramatic scene but he will never leave the party, because, for the moment, CHEGA is André Ventura.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 12, 2020, 06:01:19 AM
It seems that Eurosondagem has stop polling. Normally they released their polls on the first days of every month, but since the last one, in early July, no poll was released.

Scrap that. Eurosondagem has released a new poll.

Eurosondagem poll for Porto Canal, Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:  (https://eco.sapo.pt/2020/09/12/eurosondagem-mais-de-80-dos-eleitores-querem-recandidatura-de-marcelo/)

Vote share %:

38.5% PS (+0.1)
28.2% PSD (-1.1)
  8.3% BE (-0.1)
  5.8% CDU (-0.2)
  4.5% CHEGA (+0.1)
  3.3% PAN (+0.5)
  2.5% CDS (+0.3)
  1.0% IL (-0.1)
  7.9% Others/Invalid (+0.5)

Poll conducted between 7 and 10 September 2020. Polled 1,022 voters. MoE of 3.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 12, 2020, 07:36:51 AM
Controversy as PM António Costa and Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina are part of Benfica's president reelection honor committee:


Quote
António Costa on the honor committee for Luís Filipe Vieira's candidacy

The news broke in the early hours of the morning, but the controversy has already began. PM António Costa and Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina are part of Luís Filipe Vieira, Benfica's President, reelection honor committee. Mr Vieira is currently accused, and being investigated, in several corruption scandals, some them revealed, like I posted above, by football leaks hacker Rui Pinto, which is defended with tooth and nails by presidential candidate Ana Gomes. Social media has erupted with accusations of some Porto fans saying they will never vote PS again, with some anti-Vieira Benfica fans also saying the same, but with Benfica fans accusing Porto of hypocrisy as Porto mayor, Rui Moreira, and Vila Nova de Gaia mayor were also part of FCPorto's president reelection committee. Pundits are also suggesting Costa made a huge mistake.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 12, 2020, 01:18:41 PM
2021 Presidential elections: PCP announces MEP João Ferreira as candidate.


Quote
PCP announces candidacy of MEP João Ferreira to the presidential elections

The PCP has nominated MEP João Ferreira as the party's candidate for the 2021 elections. Mr Ferreira, 41 years old, has been a MEP since 2009, and led the PCP list in 2014 and 2019. He also ran for mayor of Lisbon in 2013 and 2017.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 13, 2020, 06:58:00 AM
Local politics: Referendum in Chaves, Vila Real district, to decide if ancient Roman bridge should have car traffic.


Quote
Chaves decides in referendum if to reopen transit of the Roman bridge

Voters in Chaves, Vila Real district, around 44,000, are deciding today in a referendum if the ancient Roman bridge, built during the I century, should have car traffic, like it had a few years ago. The bridge is currently pedestrian, but a report says the bridge is stable enough to support car traffic, recognizing that pedestrian is the preferable one. The referendum was an election promise of the current PS mayor when he defeated the PSD in 2017, after 16 years in power.

Polls will close at 7pm. This is just the sixth local referendum in almost half a century of democracy in Portugal.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 13, 2020, 08:18:26 AM
Local politics: Referendum in Chaves, Vila Real district, to decide if ancient Roman bridge should have car traffic.

Turnout appears to be extremely low as, at 12:00h, just 5% of registered voters had cast a ballot. It seems 100% certain that whatever the result is, the referendum will not be valid and the bridge will continue as only pedestrian.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 13, 2020, 05:56:16 PM
Local politics: Referendum in Chaves, Vila Real district, to decide if ancient Roman bridge should have car traffic.

Turnout appears to be extremely low as, at 12:00h, just 5% of registered voters had cast a ballot. It seems 100% certain that whatever the result is, the referendum will not be valid and the bridge will continue as only pedestrian.

Turnout was just 12.1%, but the No side won by a landslide:  (http://www.sinal.tv/videos/chaves-transito-na-ponte-romana-o-nao-venceu-1599951600)

85.2% No (4,440 votes)
14.8% Yes (769 votes)

  0.9% Blank/Invalid (49 votes)

The referendum is invalid and the ancient Roman bridge will continue pedestrian.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 14, 2020, 02:53:51 AM
There is something absolutely bizarre in the idea that local referendums are so incredibly rare yet one was called on whether to open a bridge to car traffic.
One would think that if these matters are decided by referendums, a lot of other matters should.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 14, 2020, 05:35:58 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://www.pressreader.com/portugal/correio-da-manha/20200914/281479278832011)

Vote share %:

37.4% PS (-2.2)
24.3% PSD (-0.5)
  9.9% BE (+1.4)
  7.4% CHEGA (-0.5)
  5.1% CDU (-1.0)
  4.3% CDS (-0.1) 
  4.1% PAN (+0.9)
  2.1% IL (-0.7)
  0.4% Livre (+0.4)
  1.0% Others (+0.6)
  4.1% Invalid/Blank (+1.9)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.4 António Costa (nc)
3.1 Catarina Martins (+0.3)
3.0 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.6 André Silva (nc)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (nc)
2.3 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.2)
2.1 André Ventura (-0.1)
1.9 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 4 and 9 September 2020. Polled 614 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 14, 2020, 05:40:44 AM
There is something absolutely bizarre in the idea that local referendums are so incredibly rare yet one was called on whether to open a bridge to car traffic.
One would think that if these matters are decided by referendums, a lot of other matters should.

Local referendums in Portugal are quite rare due, mainly, to bureaucracy. There have been many attempts by city halls to hold referendums on several issues, but, the Constitutional Court blocks the majority of these referendums because of technical issues and other legal issues. The lack of interest from the electorate is also another reason many city halls to not hold referendums.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 14, 2020, 07:22:05 AM
The Costa-Benfica controversy continues:


Quote
Government: Costa's support for Vieira opens controversy and raises doubts about violation of Code of Conduct

The story dominated the weekend and continues as of this morning. Costa's support for the reelection of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, which is currently being investigated for several corrupt and shady deals, is being condemned by pundits, parties and presidential candidates. Pundits suggest Costa made a huge mistake and don't understand why he did this, unless he thinks he's "teflon" and nothing will damage him. Some add that, nonetheless, he will regret deeply making this decision. The only two parties commentating on this affair were PSD and BE. PSD leader, Rui Rio, criticized Costa for mixing professional football with politics, adding the justice problems Mr Vieira has. BE leader, Catarina Martins, says it's shamefull the PM is supporting someone who left a hole of 200 million euros in the Novo Banco, and that taxpayers are paying it. In this regard, Mr Vieira is accused of damaging the Novo Banco by not paying 200 million euros in debts from his businesses.

Presidential candidate, Ana Gomes, has also hammered Costa for supporting Vieira saying she's shocked by the PM's decision and that she wants consequences from his actions. Many law experts also point that Costa is violating his own government code of conduct and the media is showing clips of Costa saying that ministers cannot forget they're still ministers even in coffee tables. This because Costa, when pressed by the media, says this has nothing to do with politics and that he's only supporting Mr. Vieira as a Benfica fan.  


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 14, 2020, 07:49:17 AM
There is something absolutely bizarre in the idea that local referendums are so incredibly rare yet one was called on whether to open a bridge to car traffic.
One would think that if these matters are decided by referendums, a lot of other matters should.

Local referendums in Portugal are quite rare due, mainly, to bureaucracy. There have been many attempts by city halls to hold referendums on several issues, but, the Constitutional Court blocks the majority of these referendums because of technical issues and other legal issues. The lack of interest from the electorate is also another reason many city halls to not hold referendums.

In Italy the Constitutional Court decides which national referenda are admissible but I don't think it has power on local ones. Interesting though.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on September 14, 2020, 12:00:48 PM
The Costa-Benfica controversy continues:


Quote
Government: Costa's support for Vieira opens controversy and raises doubts about violation of Code of Conduct

The story dominated the weekend and continues as of this morning. Costa's support for the reelection of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, which is currently being investigated for several corrupt and shady deals, is being condemned by pundits, parties and presidential candidates. Pundits suggest Costa made a huge mistake and don't understand why he did this, unless he thinks he's "teflon" and nothing will damage him. Some add that, nonetheless, he will regret deeply making this decision. The only two parties commentating on this affair were PSD and BE. PSD leader, Rui Rio, criticized Costa for mixing professional football with politics, adding the justice problems Mr Vieira has. BE leader, Catarina Martins, says it's shamefull the PM is supporting someone who left a hole of 200 million euros in the Novo Banco, and that taxpayers are paying it. In this regard, Mr Vieira is accused of damaging the Novo Banco by not paying 200 million euros in debts from his businesses.

Presidential candidate, Ana Gomes, has also hammered Costa for supporting Vieira saying she's shocked by the PM's decision and that she wants consequences from his actions. Many law experts also point that Costa is violating his own government code of conduct and the media is showing clips of Costa saying that ministers cannot forget they're still ministers even in coffee tables. This because Costa, when pressed by the media, says this has nothing to do with politics and that he's only supporting Mr. Vieira as a Benfica fan.  
Interesting how Chega is suddenly quiet about this ;)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 14, 2020, 12:33:19 PM
Interesting how Chega is suddenly quiet about this ;)

Yeah, their silence is... interesting, but completely expected. But, even Ventura was cleaver enough not to be associated with Vieira this time around.

Also an update:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa refused, in 2017, to be part of the honor committee of SCBraga president and will pressure Costa:


Quote
Marcelo declined an invitation to be part of thr honor committee of António Salvador (Sp. Braga) in 2017. President pressures Costa on the weekly meeting:


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 15, 2020, 06:15:26 AM
Interesting how Chega is suddenly quiet about this ;)

Yeah, their silence is... interesting, but completely expected. But, even Ventura was cleaver enough not to be associated with Vieira this time around.

André Ventura reacted to the Costa-Vieira controversy. (https://www.ojogo.pt/futebol/1a-liga/benfica/noticias/andre-ventura-se-vieira-fosse-condenado-por-corrupcao-teria-de-sair-do-benfica-12723136.html) Ventura said he was invited by some candidacies for the Benfica presidency but turned down all of them as he said he made a commitment to politics. He also accused Costa of trying to use Vieira's and Benfica's popularity for his own use.

The last part... sure, ok. ;)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 15, 2020, 09:57:18 AM
Azores regional elections: 13 parties presented lists for the elections.  (https://jornalacores9.pt/treze-forcas-politicas-concorrem-por-sao-miguel-maior-circulo-eleitoral/)

A - Alliance, center-right
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
CDU - Democratic Unitary Coalition (PCP/PEV), leftwing
CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right*
CH - CHEGA, rightwing to far-right
IL - Liberal Initiative, center to center-right
L - Livre (Free), center-left to leftwing
MPT - Earth Party, center-right
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party, far-left/Maoist
PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right
PPM - People's Monarchist Party, center-right to rightwing*
PS - Socialist Party, center-left

*In Corvo Island, PPM and CDS-PP run in a coalition.

These are the lists for the biggest electoral district, São Miguel, where normally all parties run. In other districts/islands, fewer parties have presented lists.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 15, 2020, 05:25:41 PM
Azores regional elections: Electoral posters of the main parties.

PS - Socialist Party

Quote
The Azores needs your vote. Vasco Cordeiro, our President

PSD - Social Democratic Party

Quote
Trust, Azores

CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party

Quote
Always by the side of the Azoreans. The right choice in defense of your rights.

BE - Left Bloc

Quote
New policies, better future

PAN - People-Animals-Nature

Quote
Give wings to a new vision

CH - CHEGA

Quote
This octopus devours everything in the Azores. Enough of corruption.

IL - Liberal Initiative

Quote
25 years of pink monster choking democracy. Come liberalize the Azores.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 16, 2020, 04:42:29 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/ana-gomes-ultrapassa-ventura-e-marcelo-cai-nas-intencoes-de-voto-as-presidenciais?ref=Pesquisa_Destaques)

Vote share %:

60.3% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-7.4)
14.0% Ana Gomes (+5.3)
  9.4% André Ventura (-0.7)
  6.2% Marisa Matias (+2.0)
  2.9% Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.4)
  0.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (new)
  6.7% Others (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 4 and 9 September 2020. Polled 614 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: VPH on September 16, 2020, 08:55:10 AM
Azores regional elections: 13 parties presented lists for the elections.  (https://jornalacores9.pt/treze-forcas-politicas-concorrem-por-sao-miguel-maior-circulo-eleitoral/)

A - Alliance, center-right
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
CDU - Democratic Unitary Coalition (PCP/PEV), leftwing
CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right*
CH - CHEGA, rightwing to far-right
IL - Liberal Initiative, center to center-right
L - Livre (Free), center-left to leftwing
MPT - Earth Party, center-right
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party, far-left/Maoist
PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right
PPM - People's Monarchist Party, center-right to rightwing*
PS - Socialist Party, center-left

*In Corvo Island, PPM and CDS-PP run in a coalition.

These are the lists for the biggest electoral district, São Miguel, where normally all parties run. In other districts/islands, fewer parties have presented lists.
Hope to see the PPM stronghold of Corvo remain strong. Hilarious electoral result.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 16, 2020, 09:18:35 AM
Hope to see the PPM stronghold of Corvo remain strong. Hilarious electoral result.

Paulo Estevão will, with all likelihood, be reelected. The PS may win the other additional seat. Don't think the PSD has a chance in Corvo. He was a teacher in Corvo, so he's very popular and seems to help Corvo in the regional Parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 16, 2020, 07:12:14 PM
Costa does a snap mini reshuffle of his government. Media says that the Health minister wanted to fire her secretary of health.


Quote
Jamila Madeira leaves. Remodeling of State Secretaries alters Health - Last minute, RTP Notícias

Costa announced, late this afternoon, a mini reshuffle of his government. The change was focused on secretaries of state and some were expected, as some secretaries are to be nominated as members or chairman of regional councils. But, the most surprising change was the departure of Jamila Madeira as Health secretary. She was substituted by António Sales. The media is saying that Ms Madeira firing was an order by the Health minister, Marta Temido, and that the PM accepted. The new secretaries will take the oath of office this Thursday morning.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 17, 2020, 06:44:12 AM
Azores regional elections: Parties present their campaign budgets and how much they will spend in the October elections.  (https://www.dnoticias.pt/2020/9/17/73830-campanhas-nos-acores-oscilam-entre-os-zero-e-os-472-mil-euros/)

Total budget expenditure projection:

   472,572€ PS
   350,000€ PSD
   150,000€ CDS
     63,506€ BE
     60,000€ CDU
     38,000€ PPM
     29,705€ PAN
     28,000€ PPM/CDS
     27,500€ CHEGA
     17,500€ Alliance
       6,000€ IL
       5,000€ Livre
       2,850€ PCTP/MRPP
              0€ MPT

1,250,633€ Total


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 17, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
JUST IN: Luís Filipe Vieira, Benfica president, removes António Costa and all political supporters from his honor committee.


Quote
Football - Luís Filipe Vieira removes António Costa and Fernando Medina from the honor committee

The "Vieiragate" or "Benficagate" continues to dominate headlines. After days of pressure from the press on PM António Costa, the President of Benfica, Luís Filipe Vieira, announced, early this afternoon, that all supporters will political jobs are to be removed from his honor committee, which includes the removal of António Costa, of course. In the press realeased, Mr Vieira thanks the support of all of the now former members of hos committee and says that it's sad that after 46 years of democracy, people are being censored for freely giving their support. He added that this controversy was "unjustified and deeply hypocritical".

This announcement happens just a few hours before the PM and President weekly meeting, where Marcelo said he was going to press Costa on this controversy, and during an ongoing series of reports on the content of Mr Vieira corruption accusation, which is expected to come out in the next few days or weeks.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 17, 2020, 12:52:06 PM
PSD caucus elections: Adão Silva, MP from Bragança, wins the caucus leadership vote with 81% of the votes.


Quote
Adão Silva elected PSD caucus leader with 81% of the votes

Adão Silva, MP from Bragança, won the PSD caucus leadership elections with 81% of the votes, 64 votes. There was only one list on the ballot. 15 votes were blank or invalid. All 79 PSD MPs voted. Mr Silva, a close ally of Rio, promissed to have more meetings with MPs and to continue the work of Rui Rio in the caucus. He also downplayed a small controversy surrounding the vote as some MPs were uncomfortable on being filmed and/or photographed while in the voting booths.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 18, 2020, 05:02:52 AM
Aximage poll for JN/TSF radio on Covid-19 and government response:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/barometro-jn-confinamento-lares-e-regresso-as-aulas-preocupam-portugueses-12735835.html)

Q1: Should there be a second confinement in the winter?

47% Yes
40% No
13% Undecided

Q2: Are the Portuguese following the Health Authorities recommendations?

56% They are facilitating
42% Yes, they're following
  2% Undecided

Q3: Government's approval on school openings:

43% Positive
34% Negative
19% Average
  2% Undecided

Q4: Government handling of Covid-19 in nursing homes:

56% Negative
27% Positive
14% Average
  3% Undecided

Q5: Local government handling of Covid-19 in nursing homes:

39% Negative
33% Positive
19% Average
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 September 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 18, 2020, 06:32:37 AM
Luís Filipe Vieira, Benfica president, removes António Costa and all political supporters from his honor committee.

That was yesterday. Today, the DA office has presented their accusation against Luís Filipe Vieira in the Lex corruption investigation. Mr Vieira and 16 others, 3 of them judges, are accused of undue receipt of advantage. Mr Vieira is himself accused of entice judge Rui Rangel with football tickets, trips overseas in order to influence a judicial case in his favour:


Quote
Football - Luís Filipe Vieira accused in Operation Lex

The timing of all of this is amazing. The media is also to continuing pressing Costa (https://www.dn.pt/edicao-do-dia/18-set-2020/17-de-setembro-de-2020-como-se-fez-um-dos-piores-dias-na-vida-politica-de-costa-12734976.html) with some suggesting that the recent snap mini government reshuffle and a Covid-19 crisis meeting this Friday are just a distraction by the PM to divert attention from his role in the "Vieiragate".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 18, 2020, 05:15:25 PM
Pro and counter rallies in Évora due to the CHEGA convention in that city:


Quote
Half a thousand Chega supporters received in Évora with "Grândola Vila Morena"

CHEGA march and rally had a counter rally in the same square from antifascist movements. CHEGA is meeting in Évora city to hold their convention and a march/rally was planned. Around 500 people attended with Ventura talking about his anti-corruption message, that CHEGA is a national party and shouting that Évora was theirs. Across the other side of the square, with police separating, an antifascist rally with the same number of protesters, around 500, was protesting against CHEGA and singing Grândola Vila Morena:



Although Évora is a very leftwing city, PS+CDU+BE+PAN won 64.3% of the votes in the 2019 general elections, but CHEGA got a result well above the national average, 2.4%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 19, 2020, 06:50:26 AM
More data from the Aximage poll for JN/TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/sondagem-as-perspetivas-para-a-economia-e-os-gastos-nas-ferias-12738631.html)

Q1: Future direction of the country:

34% Bad direction
32% Good direction
28% Neither good or bad
  5% Undecided

Q2: Youth standart of living in the future:

48% Worse than their parents
30% Better than their parents
17% Same with their parents
  5% Undecided

Q3: State of the economy in one year:

60% Worse
23% Same
13% Better
  4% Undecided

Q4: State of the economy in 3 years:

43% Better
25% Worse
22% Same
10% Undecided

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 September 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 19, 2020, 07:01:40 PM
Aximage poll for JN/TSF radio:  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/ps-e-psd-em-queda-com-costa-e-rio-a-pique-na-popularidade-cds-no-fim-da-tabela-12739714.html)

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (-2.8 )
23.9% PSD (-2.8 )
   8.3% BE (-0.2)
   6.8% CHEGA (+1.6)
   5.6% CDU (-0.4)
   4.8% PAN (+2.2)
   2.6% IL (+0.5)
   1.2% Livre (+1.1)
   1.1% CDS (-1.0)  
   8.1% Others/Invalid (+1.8 )

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 September 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

These poll results are so weird. Livre ahead of CDS? Really?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 20, 2020, 06:29:32 AM
Aximage poll for JN/TSF radio:  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/ps-e-psd-em-queda-com-costa-e-rio-a-pique-na-popularidade-cds-no-fim-da-tabela-12739714.html)

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (-2.8 )
23.9% PSD (-2.8 )
   8.3% BE (-0.2)
   6.8% CHEGA (+1.6)
   5.6% CDU (-0.4)
   4.8% PAN (+2.2)
   2.6% IL (+0.5)
   1.2% Livre (+1.1)
   1.1% CDS (-1.0)  
   8.1% Others/Invalid (+1.8 )

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 September 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

These poll results are so weird. Livre ahead of CDS? Really?

Popularity ratings: (approve; disapprove)

António Costa: 51% (-13); 31% (+13)
Rui Rio: 30% (-16); 35% (+13)
Catarina Martins: 33% (+4); 33% (-3)
Jerónimo de Sousa: 18% (-1); 59% (+14)
Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos: 13% (-4); 39% (+5)
André Silva: 22% (+7); 33% (-9)
André Ventura: 20% (+1); 56% (nc)
Cotrim Figueiredo: 14% (-1); 25% (-3)

Preferred PM:

48% António Costa (-7)
17% Rui Rio (nc)
25% Neither (+6)
  4% Both (nc)
  6% Undecided (nc)

Costa and Rio have a huge dip in popularity, Jerónimo de Sousa also crashes. The most intriguing dip in popularity is Rui Rio.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 20, 2020, 07:46:48 AM
CHEGA convention: André Ventura's leadership team rejected by delegates.


Quote
Team proposed by André Ventura failed at the convention

The CHEGA convention has been very eventful. After the pro and con rallies on Friday and a series of reports from the convention where delegates were seated too close to each other and where handshakes were common, another strange event happens. Mr Ventura leadership team didn't get the necessary votes to be approved. His list needed 2/3 of the delegates and he even didn't get more votes in favour, 193 against to 183 in favour. The convention is now suspended and Ventura has to present another leadership team.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 20, 2020, 12:39:24 PM
CHEGA "trainwreck" convention continues: Ventura's leadership team is once again rejected and police identifies delegates for not wearing masks.


Quote
Portugal - CHEGA: André Ventura's list failed for the second time

Quote
In the second vote, the list presented by André Ventura obtained 219 votes in favor and 121 against, falling short of the two-thirds needed to be approved.

Update by Observador reporter on the scene of the convention:


Quote
André Ventura's list failed for the second time for not reaching two thirds of the votes. He will present a third list after having made it clear to party members that he would resign as CHEGA's leader. Delegates were crying and Ventura was emotional.



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 20, 2020, 02:29:18 PM
Update on the CHEGA convention: Ventura gets his list approved on a 3rd ballot.


Quote
CHEGA/Convention: List of directors of Ventura approved to the third

André Ventura leadership team was finally approved on the 3rd ballot. With fewer delegates voting, just 273, Ventura got 247 votes in favour. On the 1st ballot 378 delegates voted and on the 2nd ballot 340 delegates voted.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 21, 2020, 12:13:11 PM
Azores regional elections: RTP-Azores starts a series of debates between candidates.


Quote
RTP / Açores starts debates between candidates today

RTP-Azores will start, today, to broadcast a series of debates between the candidates for the October 25 regional elections. A special set was built in Ribeira Grande city to host the debates. Between 21 and 29 September, RTP will broadcast debates between candidates in the 9 islands:

21 September: Corvo island debate  
22 September: Flores island debate
23 September: Graciosa island debate
24 September: Santa Maria island debate
25 September: São Jorge island debate
26 September: Faial island debate
27 September: Pico island debate
28 September: Terceira island debate
29 September: São Miguel island debate

After the island by island debates, a series of debates, one general and several one-on-one debates, will be also held:

2 October: Debate between all candidates (PS, PSD, CDS, BE, CDU and PPM)
5 October: CDS vs PS debate
6 October: BE vs CDU debate
7 October: PSD vs PPM debate
8 October: CDS vs PPM debate
9 October: BE vs PS debate
10 October: PSD vs CDU debate
11 October: CDS vs CDU debate
12 October: BE vs PPM debate
13 October: PS vs PSD debate (the debate between the 2 main candidates for the Presidency)
14 October: CDS vs BE debate
15 October: CDU vs PPM debate
16 October: BE vs PSD debate
17 October: PS vs CDU debate
18 October: CDS vs PSD debate
19 October: PS vs PPM debate

A lot of debates, however, this campaign will be much more televised as rallies and normal face to face contact with voters will be less frequent than in normal times.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 21, 2020, 03:03:06 PM
Why are there so many debates lmao

And do we have Azores polling? I would especially like to compare it with the national polls you posted yesterday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 21, 2020, 04:50:32 PM
Why are there so many debates lmao

And do we have Azores polling? I would especially like to compare it with the national polls you posted yesterday.

In Portugal it's quite common to have a lot of debates. The media, but also political parties, like to do one-on-one debates because, especially for the smaller parties, it gives them a big spot in front of the two big ones, PS and PSD. And even in general elections, there's a lot of debates, outside the big 4 networks (RTP, SIC, TVI and CMTV), on radio between head candidates in each district and in smaller regional TV stations. So, there's always a lot of debates.

No polling yet from Azores. We may have one or two polls in October. We'll see. The only poll certain is the RTP exit poll, because they have filled the papers to the election commission. But it's a forgone conclusion. The PS will hold their majority and the PSD will probably hold on to their faithfull 30% of voters. The big doubt is what will happen to the smaller parties as the Azores electoral system is a bit bipolarized between PS and PSD. My hunch is that maybe PAN will win a seat, CDU could be out of the regional parliament and BE surpasses CDS. Don't think CHEGA and IL will win seats. Oh, and of course, PPM will win the Corvo seat.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 21, 2020, 05:11:31 PM
Costa met, today, with parties to discuss the government's recovery plan. The response wasn't good:


Quote
Recovery: Without certainty and without consensus, Recovery Plan does not convince parties

PM António Costa summoned all parties represented in Parliament to discuss and present the government recovery plan for the post Covid economy. The plan was drafted by businessman António Costa Silva, which was invited by the Prime Minister to draw a plan. The plan focus heavily on government response, with the lion share of the funds going to infrastructures, housing and social support. The majority of funds will come from the EU. From left to right the plan didn't pleased no party. On the left, BE says the plan leans heavily on indebtedness and that areas, like the NHS, are a bit downplayed in terms of human resources. CDU says the document is a blank page and doesn't help workers, while PAN says the document is a disappointment as there's no progressive agenda in terms of the environment.

Rightwing parties all criticized the huge concentration of funds to the state and not to businesses. PSD leader Rui Rio said that the overwhelming share of the funds should go to businesses and not the state. He added his party will present an alternative program to the government's one. CDS, CHEGA and IL also heavily criticized the document with CHEGA leader, André Ventura, accusing the government of hurting businesses by only giving 500 million euros to that area and 1,8 billion euros to public administration reforms.

All of this happens as Costa needs to reach, also, an agreement for the 2021 budget. The budget wasn't present in the talks, but PCP has said they will not sign nothing with the PS and PAN accused the Finance minister of not responding to the party. Polling isn't good for Costa currently, as more data from the Aximage poll, today, shows that Costa's government disapproval reached the highest share so far during his second term:  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/avaliacao-de-costa-governo-e-marcelo-em-alta-oposicao-nem-por-isso-12435671.html)

Government's job approval:

48% Approve (-9)
35% Disapprove (+9)
14% Average (+1)
  3% Undecided (-1)

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 September 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2020, 11:08:00 AM
Post Covid 19 recovery plan: PS and PSD quarrel on the minimum wage, as no consensus is in sight.


Quote
Plan for the decade without consensus in sight

PM António Costa went to parliament, yesterday, to ask for proposals and consensus on the post Covid recovery plan/plan for the next decade. What he heard was criticisms to the plan on the right and huge doubts on the left. PSD criticized , once again, the lack of support for businesses in the plan and asked the PM how can they think in rising the national minimum wage if they don't support more the business sector. In the current circumstances, PSD is against a rise of the minimum wage as, according to them, will create more unemployment and bankruptcies. The PS, and the PM, were stunned by the PSD stand and accused them of acting like Passos Coelho. Earlier, PSD leader Rui Rio, compared the increase of the minimum wage to the 2009 wages increases done by then PM José Sócrates. Rui Rio also asked the PM if there will be a tight control on the money to avoid corruption. Costa answered saying Mr Rio would have to trust him and his record.

On the left, CDU and BE stressed once again the abstract content of the plan and put more pressure on the government to reach an agreement for the 2021 budget draft. In fact, BE and CDU were not very interested in discussing the post Covid plan and rather shifted attention, like I said above, to the 2021 budget. Costa tried to calm the left parties but was quite vague and didn't respond some of the questions regarding the 2021 budget.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 24, 2020, 11:13:23 AM

PM António Costa went to parliament, yesterday, to ask for proposals and consensus on the post Covid recovery plan/plan for the next decade. What he heard was criticisms to the plan on the right and huge doubts on the left. PSD criticized , once again, the lack of support for businesses in the plan and asked the PM how can they think in rising the national minimum wage if they don't support more the business sector. In the current circumstances, PSD is against a rise of the minimum wage as, according to them, will create more unemployment and bankruptcies.

A familiar tune the world over, despite how rarely it actually turns out to be true.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 24, 2020, 11:14:35 AM
Why are there so many debates lmao

And do we have Azores polling? I would especially like to compare it with the national polls you posted yesterday.

In Portugal it's quite common to have a lot of debates. The media, but also political parties, like to do one-on-one debates because, especially for the smaller parties, it gives them a big spot in front of the two big ones, PS and PSD. And even in general elections, there's a lot of debates, outside the big 4 networks (RTP, SIC, TVI and CMTV), on radio between head candidates in each district and in smaller regional TV stations. So, there's always a lot of debates.

No polling yet from Azores. We may have one or two polls in October. We'll see. The only poll certain is the RTP exit poll, because they have filled the papers to the election commission. But it's a forgone conclusion. The PS will hold their majority and the PSD will probably hold on to their faithfull 30% of voters. The big doubt is what will happen to the smaller parties as the Azores electoral system is a bit bipolarized between PS and PSD. My hunch is that maybe PAN will win a seat, CDU could be out of the regional parliament and BE surpasses CDS. Don't think CHEGA and IL will win seats. Oh, and of course, PPM will win the Corvo seat.

What do you mean that the Azores are a bit bipolarized? It seems to me that all Portugal is a bit bipolarized. PS and PSD are by far the most relevant.
Are the smaller parties especially weak out there in the Atlantic?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2020, 11:56:55 AM

PM António Costa went to parliament, yesterday, to ask for proposals and consensus on the post Covid recovery plan/plan for the next decade. What he heard was criticisms to the plan on the right and huge doubts on the left. PSD criticized , once again, the lack of support for businesses in the plan and asked the PM how can they think in rising the national minimum wage if they don't support more the business sector. In the current circumstances, PSD is against a rise of the minimum wage as, according to them, will create more unemployment and bankruptcies.

A familiar tune the world over, despite how rarely it actually turns out to be true.

The argument is, in fact, doubtful. That's why Costa told Rio to look what Passos Coelho said in 2016 about the 2016 NMW increase and what happened. However, the circumstances are different and this recovery plan seems to have been born in a really bad way. The plan was presented as a very ideological one, and Mr Costa e Silva, who drew the plan, said that the "State is the solution and that the market will not save us". This remark may have created a chill on PM Costa spine. Plus, when pundits started reading the plan, they found so many vague stuff and so many priorities that may turn the plan as useless. PSD since the beginning didn't buy the plan, the left says it vague so the discussion about the plan is already turning into a joke. But, this isn't the first plan like this to be drafted in Portugal, at least two plans, similar to this one, in the past were basically thrown into the garbage.

What do you mean that the Azores are a bit bipolarized? It seems to me that all Portugal is a bit bipolarized. PS and PSD are by far the most relevant.
Are the smaller parties especially weak out there in the Atlantic?

Sorry, typo error. I meant to say a bit more bipolarized. In Azores electoral history, no smaller party has ever crossed the 10% mark, and PS and PSD normally get something between 75-85% of the votes combined. And, in 2007, the Azores parliament approved a change in the electoral law in order to create a new compensation constituency to make parliament more proportional and help smaller parties. Nationwide, PS and PSD normally get a 65-70% combined vote share.

Madeira on the other hand, had a mix history. Between 1976 and 1992, Madeira was basically a one party island (PSD always polled well above 60%, and PS polled around 15%), after 1992, Madeira became a bit biloparized, although PSD continued to have results well above 50%, but the PS was able, then, to poll well above 20%. Between 2007 and 2019, Madeira political system suffered a big change with the colapse of the PS and the rise of CDS, PTP and JPP. But, by 2019, Madeira was back again as a bipolarized system with PSD and PS winning a combined 75% of the votes. Also a note, in 2007, Madeira also changed its election rules to help smaller parties, by scrapping constituencies and creating a single constituency.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2020, 01:06:12 PM
2021 local elections: A unified rightwing front is proposed as another controversy hits Almada's mayor.


Quote
Local elections: Right front for local elections? Only CDS accepts

The discussion started with an open letter from the PSD youth leader, Alexandre Poço, that proposed an unified alliance between PSD, CDS and IL for the October 2021 local elections. But the idea isn't very popular in PSD and IL, while CDS likes it but only with the PSD, not IL. In fact. IL, Liberal Initiative, has already rejected the idea saying they want to run solo and coalitions are not on the table. PSD has already said coalitions only with the CDS, not with IL or CHEGA. CDS also just wants coalitions with PSD. Regarding candidates, Paulo Portas is being proposed as a candidate for Lisbon in a PSD/CDS coalition. When asked about it, Rio said that Mr Portas has a lot of good capacities but that nothing is closed about Lisbon.*

*(Running Paulo Portas in Lisbon would be a huge mistake and disaster in a very winnable election, this time, for the right. Just saying)

Also, Almada's mayor, Inês de Medeiros, sister of actress Maria de Medeiros, is again shrouded in controversy:


Quote
The "wonderful view" of the social housing. Inês de Medeiros causes controversy

Almada's mayor, Inês de Medeiros, created controversy this week by saying, in a live feed of a city hall meeting, that social housing neighborhoods in Almada have a wonderful view of the Tagus river, that people in the north side of the river would like to live with that view and that she herself wouldn't mind living in that neighborhood. This created a big controversy, with residents in the neighborhood accusing the mayor of having no notion of the state of the neighborhood, while left parties criticize her words, while rightwing critics says she's just another "leftwing caviar" politician. This isn't the first time Ms Medeiros is in hot waters: last year, she and her CDU opponent entered in a live feud, on a city hall debate, and traded insults at each other, and in 2009, while she was an MP, she was living in Paris and asked for a travel subsidy, which created a big controversy.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2020, 06:09:37 PM
Azores regional elections: Angra court rejects the PSD main candidate for Terceira, but the party will appeal to the Constitutional Court.


Quote
PSD appeals to the Constitutional Court for the rejection of the head-list for Terceira, António Ventura - Jornal Açores 9

The Angra do Heroísmo court has rejected the head-list candidate for the PSD in Terceira island, António Ventura, because, according to the court, Mr Ventura is already an MP in Lisbon and cannot run for the Azores parliament. The complaint was presented by CHEGA. The PSD has already said that Mr Ventura candidacy cannot be rejected as there is a precedent. The party announced it will appeal to the Constitutional Court and says that the Court has already ruled the law that the Angra judge used to reject the PSD candidate as unconstitutional and added that there's a precedent as in 1988, the PS choose Carlos César as candidate and he already an MP in Lisbon. A decision is expected in the next few days.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2020, 05:08:29 PM
2021 budget: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says PSD has to pass the budget if the left parties fail.


Quote
Marcelo pressures Rio to make the Budget feasible, if the left fails. "For much less, I made three budgets feasible"

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, today, was asked about the 2021 budget and said that if the left parties, PS, BE and CDU, fail to reach an agreement, the PSD has to step in and help the PS pass next year's budget. Marcelo said a political crisis is unthinkable right now because he cannot dissolve parliament, the pandemic and Portugal's EU presidency to start in January 2021. He continued to pressure Rui Rio saying this option could be a possibility and said he did it while he was PSD leader in the late 90's when he helped pass 3 budgets from then PM António Guterres.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, has already responded to the President's remarks saying he doesn't feel pressured by the President, (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/economia/2020-09-25-oe2021-rio-considera-que-pressao-do-pr-e-para-ps-e-diz-que-psd-esta-na-bancada/) adding that all the talk of a possible political crisis is coming solely from Costa and that if one happens, the responsibility is all his, and that Costa himself is the one that should feel pressured. He also said the PSD is just a spectator on the 2021 budget draft and that a solution needs to come from the PS, BE and CDU. Rio also reminded Costa's words when he stated that if one day his government was dependent of the PSD, it would be the end of his government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2020, 07:05:30 PM
2021 Presidential elections: PSD declares full support for Marcelo's reelection.


Quote
PSD Political Commission declares support for Marcelo in the presidential elections

With no votes against, and 6 abstentions, the PSD approved in the party's national council, tonight, their full support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa reelection in 2021. Marcelo has yet to announce his reelection, but it's literally a forgone conclusion.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2020, 07:16:09 AM
2021 budget: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says PSD has to pass the budget if the left parties fail.

What is the likelihood that the left-wing parties fail to reach an agreement with PS on the budget and PSD actually needs to step in?
It sounds like something that would destabilize the situation a lot, especially given Rui Rio's remarks. Of course well, I am biased towards Costa/the government/the left-wing to a fault, but I wouldn't like to see it happen.*

Also, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa sounds, ahem, very presidential. Does he have the stellar approval ratings I'm guessing he has?

*indeed I'd say the very healthy polling of the left in Portugal is reason no. 2 why I follow this thread a lot, reason no. 1 being that your posts are pretty engaging.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2020, 08:10:17 AM
2021 budget: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says PSD has to pass the budget if the left parties fail.

What is the likelihood that the left-wing parties fail to reach an agreement with PS on the budget and PSD actually needs to step in?
It sounds like something that would destabilize the situation a lot, especially given Rui Rio's remarks. Of course well, I am biased towards Costa/the government/the left-wing to a fault, but I wouldn't like to see it happen.*

Also, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa sounds, ahem, very presidential. Does he have the stellar approval ratings I'm guessing he has?

*indeed I'd say the very healthy polling of the left in Portugal is reason no. 2 why I follow this thread a lot, reason no. 1 being that your posts are pretty engaging.

Well, Costa, for some unknown reason, has made the whole budget situation an almost disaster with his threats of political crisis and so on. The left parties, particularly BE because CDU is distancing themselves more and more from the PS, want several things in the budget, mainly no more state money for the Novo Banco and more spending on the NHS with nurses, doctors and staff. Negotiations between PS and BE seem stalled, and the media is reporting today that Costa will announce several policies, next week, to "seduce" the left parties like more hiring for the NHS, a new social subsidy and policies related with labour laws. According to the media, Costa has already told Marcelo that after next week, it will be very difficult for the BE, and or CDU, to struck down the budget.

Now, Marcelo is worried and probably thinks Costa is being a bit too optimistic and warned the PSD that they may be needed to prevent "the ship to sink". However, the PSD has something up their sleeve: Costa's remarks about a possible help from the PSD. And Rio seems to be banking on the issue that the sole responsible for this whole tension is solely Costa. It's unlikely, but if all of this ends with Costa needing to talk with the PSD, the "oranges" will probably force some of their policies into the budget, like corporate tax cuts, more support for small businesses, etc. Once again, it's very unlikely because in this scenario Costa would be deeply defeated.

Marcelo has sky high approval ratings, averaging around 70%, and in fact his only real true power is to advice and the more popular you are, the stronger and powerfull that advice will be. However, it's still to be seen if that 70% approval rating can be translated into votes, as Marcelo irritates a lot of PSD voters, and it's unclear how much PS voters will vote for him, even though polls say Marcelo is more popular within the PS than in the PSD.

Thanks for the feedback :) .


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2020, 09:53:45 AM
2021 budget: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says PSD has to pass the budget if the left parties fail.

What is the likelihood that the left-wing parties fail to reach an agreement with PS on the budget and PSD actually needs to step in?
It sounds like something that would destabilize the situation a lot, especially given Rui Rio's remarks. Of course well, I am biased towards Costa/the government/the left-wing to a fault, but I wouldn't like to see it happen.*

Also, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa sounds, ahem, very presidential. Does he have the stellar approval ratings I'm guessing he has?

*indeed I'd say the very healthy polling of the left in Portugal is reason no. 2 why I follow this thread a lot, reason no. 1 being that your posts are pretty engaging.

Well, Costa, for some unknown reason, has made the whole budget situation an almost disaster with his threats of political crisis and so on. The left parties, particularly BE because CDU is distancing themselves more and more from the PS, want several things in the budget, mainly no more state money for the Novo Banco and more spending on the NHS with nurses, doctors and staff. Negotiations between PS and BE seem stalled, and the media is reporting today that Costa will announce several policies, next week, to "seduce" the left parties like more hiring for the NHS, a new social subsidy and policies related with labour laws. According to the media, Costa has already told Marcelo that after next week, it will be very difficult for the BE, and or CDU, to struck down the budget.

Now, Marcelo is worried and probably thinks Costa is being a bit too optimistic and warned the PSD that they may be needed to prevent "the ship to sink". However, the PSD has something up their sleeve: Costa's remarks about a possible help from the PSD. And Rio seems to be banking on the issue that the sole responsible for this whole tension is solely Costa. It's unlikely, but if all of this ends with Costa needing to talk with the PSD, the "oranges" will probably force some of their policies into the budget, like corporate tax cuts, more support for small businesses, etc. Once again, it's very unlikely because in this scenario Costa would be deeply defeated.

Marcelo has sky high approval ratings, averaging around 70%, and in fact his only real true power is to advice and the more popular you are, the stronger and powerfull that advice will be. However, it's still to be seen if that 70% approval rating can be translated into votes, as Marcelo irritates a lot of PSD voters, and it's unclear how much PS voters will vote for him, even though polls say Marcelo is more popular within the PS than in the PSD.

Thanks for the feedback :) .

I see. I hope Costa's "seductions" do their work. It sounds like he shot himself in the foot with this situation (and given this kind of openings to Rio) but I guess everything can still work out. I'm counting on O Bloco.

I understand what you say about the President's advice, Italy is a parliamentary Republic too (except our President is elected by the Parliament and not by the people), and unsurprisingly he is also our most popular politician. I have read that Marcelo was a leader of PSD, I assume that his former party's voters are irritated by him because they see him as too close to the current government?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2020, 10:20:09 AM
I see. I hope Costa's "seductions" do their work. It sounds like he shot himself in the foot with this situation (and given this kind of openings to Rio) but I guess everything can still work out. I'm counting on O Bloco.

I understand what you say about the President's advice, Italy is a parliamentary Republic too (except our President is elected by the Parliament and not by the people), and unsurprisingly he is also our most popular politician. I have read that Marcelo was a leader of PSD, I assume that his former party's voters are irritated by him because they see him as too close to the current government?

It's a situation no one is really very comfortable. BE knows that if they refuse to pass the budget, the PS would find a scapegoat to blame. PS is in a difficult spot too as all of this doesn't portrait an image of leadership and stability, and PSD doesn't want to get into talks with the PS because of internal feuds. Rio is accused, since he's leader, of being to close to Costa and this irritates a large part of the PSD. Even though he would gain points by forcing his agenda into a possible budget deal with Costa, he rather prefers to be on the sidelines and let PS and BE deal with the situation, and portrait himself, and the PSD, as the alternative. Not to mention that any approximation between PS and PSD, only helps CHEGA. This is important because of the very crucial election year of 2021, where Rio's leadership will have the ultimate test. CDU doesn't want more associations with the PS as they are collapsing in polling and see that the only way to recover is to be opposition again.

Yes, Marcelo was leader of the PSD between 1996 and 1999 and his leadership was not very memorable, and ended in a very tense way. A curious note, Rui Rio was his secretary-general for a year, or so, after being forced out of office because of membership fees reforms he wanted to persue. And you're absolutely right. Many PSD voters just can't stand that Marcelo helps, over and over again, Costa and are irritated with him. But, curiously, this is quite normal. Mário Soares and Cavaco Silva, for example, pissed off their respective parties by their initial support for the governments at the time: Soares irritated the PS by supporting the then PSD government led by Cavaco Silva; and Cavaco Silva irritated the PSD by supporting José Sócrates in his first term. But, these two also have a similar thing: on the 2nd presidential term, hell broke between the President and the PM. Who knows what will happen during Marcelo's 2nd term.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2020, 12:31:04 PM
I see. I hope Costa's "seductions" do their work. It sounds like he shot himself in the foot with this situation (and given this kind of openings to Rio) but I guess everything can still work out. I'm counting on O Bloco.

I understand what you say about the President's advice, Italy is a parliamentary Republic too (except our President is elected by the Parliament and not by the people), and unsurprisingly he is also our most popular politician. I have read that Marcelo was a leader of PSD, I assume that his former party's voters are irritated by him because they see him as too close to the current government?

It's a situation no one is really very comfortable. BE knows that if they refuse to pass the budget, the PS would find a scapegoat to blame. PS is in a difficult spot too as all of this doesn't portrait an image of leadership and stability, and PSD doesn't want to get into talks with the PS because of internal feuds. Rio is accused, since he's leader, of being to close to Costa and this irritates a large part of the PSD. Even though he would gain points by forcing his agenda into a possible budget deal with Costa, he rather prefers to be on the sidelines and let PS and BE deal with the situation, and portrait himself, and the PSD, as the alternative. Not to mention that any approximation between PS and PSD, only helps CHEGA. This is important because of the very crucial election year of 2021, where Rio's leadership will have the ultimate test. CDU doesn't want more associations with the PS as they are collapsing in polling and see that the only way to recover is to be opposition again.

Yes, Marcelo was leader of the PSD between 1996 and 1999 and his leadership was not very memorable, and ended in a very tense way. A curious note, Rui Rio was his secretary-general for a year, or so, after being forced out of office because of membership fees reforms he wanted to persue. And you're absolutely right. Many PSD voters just can't stand that Marcelo helps, over and over again, Costa and are irritated with him. But, curiously, this is quite normal. Mário Soares and Cavaco Silva, for example, pissed off their respective parties by their initial support for the governments at the time: Soares irritated the PS by supporting the then PSD government led by Cavaco Silva; and Cavaco Silva irritated the PSD by supporting José Sócrates in his first term. But, these two also have a similar thing: on the 2nd presidential term, hell broke between the President and the PM. Who knows what will happen during Marcelo's 2nd term.

I understand. So everybody is circlejerking because every party is in a tough spot with the budget. I guess CHEGA is cheering in the background a lot, although I am sure they have their problems (internal and not) as well.

Your anecdotes about Presidents and Prime Ministers are very interesting. If post 2021 Marcelo starts pissing off António Costa we may as well start calling it a tradition (or a curse). But I don't know. I imagine the 2021 election will be the last electoral test of Marcelo's life, so I suppose he will not give a damn if he irritates party X or party Y in his second term.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2020, 01:12:14 PM
I understand. So everybody is circlejerking because every party is in a tough spot with the budget. I guess CHEGA is cheering in the background a lot, although I am sure they have their problems (internal and not) as well.

Your anecdotes about Presidents and Prime Ministers are very interesting. If post 2021 Marcelo starts pissing off António Costa we may as well start calling it a tradition (or a curse). But I don't know. I imagine the 2021 election will be the last electoral test of Marcelo's life, so I suppose he will not give a damn if he irritates party X or party Y in his second term.

Yes, but, on the other side, previous Presidents had also the tendency to help their respective political side on their 2nd term: Mário Soares irritated Cavaco but he started paving the way for the return of the PS to power; Jorge Sampaio 2nd term was marked by 2004 "atomic bomb", when he dissolved Parliament without the consent of the PM, which paved the way to the 2005 landslide PS majority; Cavaco Silva 2nd term started with him trashing Sócrates and paving the way for the PSD 2011 victory. Even Ramalho Eanes, in 1985, "created" a party to contest the 1985 elections, that ultimately hurt deeply the PS. Presidents have much more liberty on their 2nd term, and they feel free to do what they truly want.

About CHEGA internal disputes, they are the result of the huge mix of people from PSD, CDS, PNR and Alliance, the party now has. CHEGA drained the most rightwing/far-right parts of PSD, CDS, PNR and Alliance, you can call them the "nutjobs" that for years were part of, mainly, PSD and CDS, and now fight for political places and defend things that they would never had the chance to do in the PSD or CDS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2020, 02:29:57 PM
I understand. So everybody is circlejerking because every party is in a tough spot with the budget. I guess CHEGA is cheering in the background a lot, although I am sure they have their problems (internal and not) as well.

Your anecdotes about Presidents and Prime Ministers are very interesting. If post 2021 Marcelo starts pissing off António Costa we may as well start calling it a tradition (or a curse). But I don't know. I imagine the 2021 election will be the last electoral test of Marcelo's life, so I suppose he will not give a damn if he irritates party X or party Y in his second term.

Yes, but, on the other side, previous Presidents had also the tendency to help their respective political side on their 2nd term: Mário Soares irritated Cavaco but he started paving the way for the return of the PS to power; Jorge Sampaio 2nd term was marked by 2004 "atomic bomb", when he dissolved Parliament without the consent of the PM, which paved the way to the 2005 landslide PS majority; Cavaco Silva 2nd term started with him trashing Sócrates and paving the way for the PSD 2011 victory. Even Ramalho Eanes, in 1985, "created" a party to contest the 1985 elections, that ultimately hurt deeply the PS. Presidents have much more liberty on their 2nd term, and they feel free to do what they truly want.

About CHEGA internal disputes, they are the result of the huge mix of people from PSD, CDS, PNR and Alliance, the party now has. CHEGA drained the most rightwing/far-right parts of PSD, CDS, PNR and Alliance, you can call them the "nutjobs" that for years were part of, mainly, PSD and CDS, and now fight for political places and defend things that they would never had the chance to do in the PSD or CDS.

Good to know. The President of the Republic in Portugal sounds quite more powerful than his Italian counterpart in fact. I was not expecting this.

CHEGA is... interesting (in a bad way). I wonder if Portuguese media has already started with the* typical obsession for muh iS cHega sTeaLinG worKinG cLasS vOtErs disAppOinTed witH tHe Left that is common everywhere else a "right-wing populist" party exists.

*unwarranted, if as you say CHEGA is pretty much mostly a mix of people previously on the far-right fringe of PSD or CDS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2020, 05:41:26 PM
Good to know. The President of the Republic in Portugal sounds quite more powerful than his Italian counterpart in fact. I was not expecting this.

CHEGA is... interesting (in a bad way). I wonder if Portuguese media has already started with the* typical obsession for muh iS cHega sTeaLinG worKinG cLasS vOtErs disAppOinTed witH tHe Left that is common everywhere else a "right-wing populist" party exists.

*unwarranted, if as you say CHEGA is pretty much mostly a mix of people previously on the far-right fringe of PSD or CDS.

Presidents in Portugal have no legislative or executive power, but, like I said above, they have the power of influence and the "power of the word", meaning that their words can have a lot of power to impact the government. Other than this, Presidents have some powers: nominate a PM, calling elections, vetoing laws (only 2 consecutive vetoes of the same law, the third is useless), and dismissing the PM and calling for a dissolution of Parliament, the "atomic bomb".

There's a line of thinking that CHEGA may be stealing votes from CDU in the Alentejo region. In fact, many CHEGA's best % points were in the Alentejo region, but the sample from the 2019 elections is still small. We'll see how does the share of the CDU and CHEGA playout in the Presidential elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2020, 10:14:06 AM
US-Portugal tensions? US Ambassador George Glass says that Portugal needs to choose between their allies or the Chinese regarding 5G.


Quote
United States pressures Government: "Portugal must now choose between its allies or the Chinese", says ambassador

In an interview to Expresso newspaper, US ambassador George Glass pressured the Portuguese government on several economic decisions that Portugal will take between the US and China. Mr Glass warned the government that if 5G coverage goes to the Chinese, relations between Portugal and the US will suffer consequences, adding to this the expansion of the Sines Harbour which is also in contention between the US and China.

The foreign affairs minister and President Marcelo have already reacted to these statements. Mr Santos Silva, foreign minister, said he registered what the ambassador said, but that in Portugal it is the Portuguese authorities who make decisions. (https://www.publico.pt/2020/09/26/politica/noticia/santos-silva-responde-embaixador-eua-toma-decisoes-portugal-1932962) President Marcelo followed a similar tone, saying who takes decisions in Portugal are officials elected by the people and only them. (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/pais/1592879/marcelo-responde-a-aviso-de-embaixador-dos-estados-unidos)

During next week, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment, Keith J. Krach, will visit Portugal and meet with the Government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 28, 2020, 10:05:50 AM
Azores regional elections: PSD reveals their election manifesto.


Quote
PSD program wants to de-governmentalize the region

Main policies:

- Decentralize and de-governmentalize the region;
- Creation of a regional mobility market to ease transportation of people and goods;
- Creation of a special tariff for residents flying within the archipelago;
- Reduction of VAT and Corporate taxes;
- Remove political top jobs from the Health department to reinforce the independency of the department;
- Modernize and support media companies, especially RTP-Azores;
- Creation of an European Parliament constituency from Azores;
- Turn SATA airlines solvent and maintain the public hold of the company;
- Invest in digital transformation of regional services, from health to overall services;

Will post other party manifestos when they are unveiled.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 28, 2020, 02:44:44 PM
CHEGA wants to expel member who proposed the removal of ovaries from women who aborted in the party's convention:


Quote
Portugal: CHEGA wants to expel author of motion for removal of ovaries in women

The motion, presented last week in CHEGA's convention in Évora, proposed the removal of ovaries in women who had aborted. The motion was widely rejected, 85% against, but created a lot of controversy in the media. The member who proposed this was Rui Roque, a former PNR member. But it seems that Ventura was furious with the proposal and now wants to expel Rui Roque from the party saying that this proposal tarnishes the party's name and it's a violation of women rights and dignities. In a statement sent to the press, Ventura also said that policies that violate the dignity of the human person and the value of the democratic state cannot be accepted by CHEGA.*

*(But CHEGA continues to propose the castration of pedophiles, which was already considered unconstitutional and forbidden to be discussed.)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 29, 2020, 09:55:33 AM
Holy f**king f**k!

I didn't realize *this* was the level of craziness CHEGA amounted to.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 29, 2020, 11:05:19 AM
Holy f**king f**k!

I didn't realize *this* was the level of craziness CHEGA amounted to.

Like I said before, all the nutjobs that were swirling around in the PSD, CDS and some, like the one that proposed that, in PNR all came to CHEGA. But, seem to be a bit over the top.

Also, the 2021 budget "tension" continues: Catarina Martins, BE leader, is waiting for clear signs of the PS in order to negotiate and says BE doesn't feel obligated to approve the budget.


Quote
Catarina Martins attacks “financial gangsterism” and expects “clearer signs of PS negotiation will” in the State Budget

Catarina Martins, BE leader, did an interview to SIC last night where she asked the PS to give signs they're willing to negotiate with BE, adding that the meetings held with the Finance minister were note very positive. She, once again, defended the BE flags of more investments in the NHS and no more state money for the Novo Banco, with Ms Martins accusing these institutions of "financial gangsterism".  She added that the party doesn't feel obligated to approve the budget. The PS, PM and the President are all warning that there cannot be a political crisis, putting more pressure on BE at the same time PCP is not willing to compromise and PS doesn't want talks with PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on September 30, 2020, 11:42:32 AM
2021 Presidential elections: PAN is likely to support Ana Gomes, and Pedro Nuno Santos defies Costa, once again.


Quote
Pedro Nuno responds to Santos Silva, challenges Costa and defends Ana Gomes: “Who decides who the PS supports are the party agencies”

The minister of Infrastructures and possible successor of Costa, Pedro Nuno Santos, defied, once again, the PM's advise that ministers should opt out in discussing the Presidential elections and responded to his college, the foreign affairs minister, after the latter said that Ms Gomes was a good candidate but not for the PS. Mr Nuno Santos defended Ana Gomes saying if she's good enough to be a MEP she good enough to be a PS candidate. He added that it isn't the PM or the government who says which candidate, or not, the PS supports but rather the party internal agencies.

PAN also announced they will not present a candidate and will decide, tomorrow, who to support. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-09-30-PAN-nao-tera-candidato-proprio-nas-presidenciais.-Amanha-anuncia-quem-apoia--e-Ana-Gomes-e-a-mais-provavel-) But, the media is saying that the most likely option is to support Ana Gomes. Ana Gomes already has the support of Livre.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 01, 2020, 04:45:51 PM
In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments: ;)



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 02, 2020, 03:04:09 PM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV on the Presidential elections:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/eleicoes-presidenciais/2020-10-02-Marcelo-reeleito-a-primeira-volta.-Ana-Gomes-a-frente-de-Andre-Ventura)

Vote share %:

65% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
12% Ana Gomes
   8% André Ventura
   7% Marisa Matias
   6% João Ferreira
   1% Other candidates

Support by party: (PS, PSD, BE, CHEGA, CDU)

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa - 55%, 72%, 7%, 6%, 0%
Ana Gomes - 15%, 3%, 5%, 0%, 3%
André Ventura - 0%, 1%, 0%, 81%, 0%
Marisa Matias - 1%, 2%, 54%, 0%, 8%
João Ferreira - 2%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 70%

Poll conducted between 14 and 24 September 2020. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 02, 2020, 05:29:48 PM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:  (https://sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Sondagem-ICS_ISCTE_Setembro2020_1aparte_final.pdf)

Vote share %: (compared with the February poll)

37% PS (+4)
27% PSD (-1)
  8% BE (-1)
  7% CHEGA (+1)
  6% CDU (-2)
  4% PAN (+1)
  2% CDS (-2) 
  2% IL (nc)
  0% Livre (-1)
  4% Others (+3)
  2% Invalid/Blank (-3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

7.0 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.1)
5.7 António Costa (+0.1)
4.8 Rui Rio (+0.4)
4.6 Catarina Martins (nc)
3.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.7)
3.4 André Silva (+0.1)
3.1 André Ventura (-0.1)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.2 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.1)

Government's job approval:

49% Approve (-8)
43% Disapprove (+9)
  8% Undecided (-1)

Poll conducted between 14 and 24 September 2020. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 02, 2020, 06:51:50 PM
The Government announces a series of policies to gain the support of BE/CDU in the 2021 budget vote:


Quote
These are the 16 measures of the Government to convince the left to approve the OE

The government announced, today, a series of policies in order to convince the left to vote in favour of the 2021 budget. Negotiations with the BE and CDU will continue next week and they seem to be a bit staled, so the government decided to make an update on what's on the table to convince parties and move away the "ghost" of a political crisis, although some in the media, in op-eds, are already saying that Costa's government is rotting and the rest is just a matter of time. (https://www.publico.pt/2020/09/30/politica/editorial/governos-sao-rosas-murcham-1933545) Nonetheless, the main policies are the following:

- Reinforcement of human resources in the National Health Service (NHS);
- Creation of a special subsidy for NHS workers in the front line against Covid-19;
- Policies to control abuse and regulate workers' rights in teleworking;
- Extend collective bargaining to outsourced workers;
- Big increase in the national minimum wage (NMW);
- Extraordinary increase in pensions;
- Creation of a new social support with the poverty line as reference;
- Looking for ways the State will not give money to the Novo Banco in 2021;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 03, 2020, 06:56:19 AM
Azores regional elections: In the first debate between all parties, everyone attacked the PS and defended the end of the absolute majority of the PS. Also, PSD has a small victory as the Constitutional Court accepts the candidacy of their head-list candidate in Terceira.


Quote
Opposition calls for an end to the socialist absolute majority, PS will accept the people's will

In the first debate between all main party leaders for the Azores regional election, as expected, the PS was the preferred target. The 20 years of PS majority governments were attacked with opposition parties asking voters to strip the PS from its majority. On the right, PSD defended the alternation of government, adding that changing government is good for democracy. CDS, CHEGA, PPM and IL defended that the PS dominance in regional services is overwhelming and that this hurts freedoms and democracy. On the left, BE accused the PS of "show off campaign" by inaugurating public works during the election campaign. CDU said absolute majorities are bad for democracy and pointed to the "geringonça" agreement between the national PS, BE and CDU parties. PAN says the PS has become sloppy after almost 25 years in power.

Vasco Cordeiro, PS leader, responded saying the islands are living "extraordinary times", due to Covid, and that voters have the obligation to strengthen Azores autonomy. He added that it is the people who will decide if there's a majority or not, stressing that the PS will respect the people's will.

Also, before the debate, it was revealed the PSD head-list candidate for Terceira island, national MP António Ventura, was accepted by the Constitutional Court after the PSD appeal. (https://www.acorianooriental.pt/noticia/tc-aceita-recurso-do-psd-e-mantem-cabeca-de-lista-pela-terceira-317247) A court in Angra do Heroísmo rejected Mr Ventura candidacy and the PSD labeled the decision as unfair and wrong, claiming precedents.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 03, 2020, 07:29:48 AM
Another controversy?: Costa fires President of the Court of Auditors by telephone.


Quote
Portugal - Costa “fired” President of the Court of Auditors by telephone

It's being reported, today, that PM António Costa fired the President of the Court of Auditors, Vítor Caldeira, by telephone as he communicated to Mr Caldeira his name would not be put up for renomination. According to Sol newspaper, Mr Caldeira asked for several meetings with Costa to discuss this matter, but he received no response from the PM. Judges say Costa decision shows his lack of respect for the institution of the Court of Auditors and that Mr. Caldeira was victim of his "independence". The Court of Auditors has been, in the last few years, very critical of many of the government's financial decision, with most recently saying the government's proposal to change the Public Contracts Code (CCP) can lead to unfair competition and open the door to collusion and even corruption.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 03, 2020, 10:15:56 AM
2021 Presidential elections: PS and PSD want early voting for voters confined at home due to Covid-19.


Quote
PS joins PSD and proposes early vote for confined voters.

The PS has joined with the PSD and proposed a special regime in the electoral law to allow voters, confined at home due to Covid, to vote early in next January 2021 presidential elections. The PS proposal is basically the same as the PSD one, proposed in mid-September, and proposes that the mayor, a councillor or any other local official, travel to the voter's home, or place where it's confined, and give him a ballot to fill and then seal it in special safety envelope. This move can also be witnessed by representatives of the campaigns if they demand it. Adding to this, the PSD proposal also asks for the disinfection and quarantine of the envelopes for 48 hours before sending it to election precincts.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 03, 2020, 02:17:58 PM
In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments: ;)

https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1311133414691672064

Based!

And this guy is the leader of which party?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 03, 2020, 02:29:42 PM
In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments: ;)

https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1311133414691672064

Based!

And this guy is the leader of which party?

Alliance (A) head-list candidate for São Miguel island.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 03, 2020, 02:32:32 PM
In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments: ;)

https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1311133414691672064

Based!

And this guy is the leader of which party?

Alliance (A) head-list candidate for São Miguel island.

Uhm, I hoped for a better party. Not a fan of Aliança.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 03, 2020, 05:46:06 PM
In the US, last week's debate is considered the worst debate ever. The Azores election debates, on the other hand, have musical moments: ;)

https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1311133414691672064

Based!

And this guy is the leader of which party?

Alliance (A) head-list candidate for São Miguel island.

Uhm, I hoped for a better party. Not a fan of Aliança.
To be fair, almost no one is fan of Aliança. 8) 8)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 04, 2020, 06:46:37 AM
Azores regional election campaign: In 3 weeks, voters will head to the polls, although some will cast ballots in early voting day 2 weeks from today. Party leaders are already on the road:

PS - Vasco Cordeiro talking to voters in Graciosa island:


PSD - José Manuel Bolieiro talking to voters in São Jorge island:


CDS - CDS-Azores leader, Artur Lima, in a protest with health workers:


BE - BE-Azores leader in a protest with health workers in Ponta Delgada hospital:


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 04, 2020, 11:01:21 AM
2021 local elections: 1/3 of city halls could change hands next year.


Quote
One third of city councils could change hands

Jornal de Notícias does, this Sunday, an interesting analysis about the 2021 local elections. In exactly one year from now, if the elections are called for October 3 2021, voters across the country will elect almost 40,000 local members, from mayors, councillors, municipal assembly members, parish presidents and parish assembly members. In next year's local elections, 45 mayor are barred from reelection, and the PS has the majority of mayors barred, 25, while the PSD only has 14. Plus, the newspaper analysis shows that 112 races are "too close to call", meaning they were very close in 2017 or have a tendency to swing back and forward. The rest are safe races. PS currently has 161 mayors, PSD 98, CDU 24, Independents have 17, CDS 6, JPP 1 and We, the Citizens 1.

Next year's local elections are crucial for the two main parties. PSD leader, Rui Rio, will face the ultimate test to his leadership in these elections. The PSD has been losing ground on local elections since 2009, and Mr Rio has made the pledge that he will do everything in his power to gain back power for the party locally. If he fails, he will, without any doubt, resign or be kicked out of the leadership. Costa has also a lot in play as the PS will be defending a lot of gains from 2013 and 2017 and knows history doesn't favour incumbent governments in midterm local elections. In fact, the only time an opposition party lost ground in a local election in the middle of a 4 year term of a government was the PSD in 2017. In every other midterm local election, since 1974, the main opposition party always gained ground, however there are examples of governing parties winning a bit of ground.

Mayors won or lost by incumbent and opposition parties: (incumbent government in bold)

1982: AD (-30), PS (+24)
1989: PSD (-35), PS (+41)
1993: PSD (+2), PS (+7)
1997: PS (+1), PSD (+11)
2001: PS (-15), PSD (+32)
2013: PSD (-33), PS (+15)
2017: PS (+8), PSD (-10)

It will be also interesting to see how does CDU perform in these elections. The Communists lost a huge amount of ground in 2017, and results from the 2019 general elections showed the party losing a lot of support in many of their strongholds. Local elections are a different reality, but party strengh and organization will be crucial and CDU is in a down path trend meaning the PS could gain some mayors in big "red" cities, like Seixal, Setúbal and Évora.

National polling trends almost always have an impact in the overall result of local elections. So, the national polling and government approvals during 2021, or close to the election, will be an indicator of how things will play out.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 04, 2020, 05:40:37 PM
JUST IN: Member of Council of State, António Lobo Xavier, is infected with Covid-19. The President, PM, Leader of the Opposition, former Presidents, Madeira and Azores leaders and Ursula Von der Leyen were in a meeting with him last Tuesday. All are being tested.

Quote
Lobo Xavier has Covid, State advisers will be tested

António Lobo Xavier, a CDS member who is also member of the Council of State, announced he's infected with Covid-19. He took part in a meeting last Tuesday with all high profile figures of the Portuguese State, plus Ursula Von der Leyen. Everyone in the meeting wore a mask and was socially distanced, however, some talked with each other after and before the meeting. All participants are being tested. Some results could be known even this evening.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 04, 2020, 07:48:50 PM
Update: Results from Marcelo, Costa and the Speaker of Parliament came negative for Covid-19. Former Presidents Cavaco Silva and Jorge Sampaio also tested negative.

The media is also saying that former President Ramalho Eanes and PSD leader Rui Rio will be tested tomorrow.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 05, 2020, 10:31:20 AM
All tests came negative for everyone, including Ursula Von der Leyen.

Moving forward, today is national holiday in Portugal as it the 110th anniversary of the implantation of the Republic. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa made a speech in Lisbon city hall, where the republic was proclaimed in 1910:


Quote
Footage - Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa calls for unity on the most suffered October 5 in democracy.

In the speech, Marcelo asked for unity in a very difficult time for the country and said that restrictions, due to Covid, cannot hurt fundamental right, adding "we need to continue to act in freedom because we don't want dictatorships in Portugal". The President also said that dictatorships across the world didn't solve the crisis, and said that Portugal must follow the republican ethic "that rejects cronyisms, clientele and corruptions." The media says this is clear and direct swipe at Costa's government for its decision of firing the President of the  Court of Auditors because of his criticisms to the government's policies changes that could create widespread corruption and bad management in EU funds.

Marcelo also asked for responsibility in talks for the 2021 budget saying that "collective interests must overlap personal interests".

Basically all parties are approving the President's speech. PS says the speech was good as it was an act for responsibility of political leaders; PSD says the speech was also good as it highlighted the party's worries about corruption and the economy; CDS applauded the President's worry regarding corruption in EU funds; BE liked the President's appeal for unity and dialogue. On the other hand, CHEGA said Marcelo's speech was "vague" and didn't give nothing concrete or hopefull for the country. The media is pointing that Marcelo gave a "warning" speech about possible dangers ahead, like the economy and corruption and the he seemed to be pressuring parties, and specially Costa and his government, to act with responsibility.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 05, 2020, 02:37:39 PM
All tests came negative for everyone, including Ursula Von der Leyen.

Moving forward, today is national holiday in Portugal as it the 110th anniversary of the implantation of the Republic. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa made a speech in Lisbon city hall, where the republic was proclaimed in 1910:

Holiday greetings to all of you in Portugal!


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 08, 2020, 02:31:42 PM
2021 budget: Talks continue between PS and BE/CDU with no agreement yet.


Quote
5:30 am summit with BE came to nothing. Catarina gives the government “4 days” (or it may struck down the Budget)

The government approved, today, the budget draft for 2021 but talks with BE/CDU continue as no agreement is yet near, according to the media. BE and PS negotiated for more than 5 hours, yesterday, with zero results and BE leader, Catarina Martins, is giving the government 4 days to reach an agreement or BE will vote against the budget. And CDU, which at first was at odds with the government, is now talking with the government, but their vote is still very much in doubt. The Finance minister also presented, yesterday, the budget to all parties in Parliament and the reaction was quite bad for it. PSD, CDS, IL and CHEGA say the budget has nothing for businesses and the private sector, while BE and CDU say the discussion was vague and more priorities, like workers rights and state help, should be upgraded in the budget. The budget is still likely to pass, but the tension, real or fake, continues.

Also, the Electoral Commission announced several changes for the 2021 Presidential elections, in terms of ways of voting:


Quote
Presidential elections will have door by door vote picking.

In the January 2021 elections, there will be an early voting precinct in each municipality, until now there were only 18, one in each district capital, confined voters will be able to cast ballot in their homes, and voters lists by precincts will be reduced to avoid agglomerations. The number of precincts will probably increase in the elections. Some are also suggesting early voting to be extended for 3 or 4 days rather than just one day. The Commission added that all this changes will demand the hiring of more 10,000 election workers and more investments.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 08, 2020, 04:39:22 PM
Nomination of a new President of the Court of Auditors is creating controversy:


Quote
New President of the Court of Auditors referred to in the Public-Private Partnerships inquiry

The nomination of a new President of the Court of Auditors is creating some controversy due to his past, as the nominee, Carlos Correia da Fonseca was, allegedly, involved in many Public-Private Partnerships schemes during the Sócrates government regarding high-speed trains. Mr Fonseca was chosen by Costa and signed by Marcelo. PSD leader, Rui Rio, was also involved in the controversy as the President pushed him in order to have ground to justify his support. Rio, pressured by the press, said he wanted a second term of Mr Vítor Caldeira, but that he approved the nomination of Mr Fonseca. Of course, the PSD electorate is furious with this. The media is considering this as another mistake done by Costa (http://President of the Court of Auditors), from the way he "fired" the former President of the Court of Auditors and how he handled the nomination of a new one as, some pundits say, transparency is completely missing from the government's conduct, not to mention the lack of scrutiny.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2020, 07:06:10 AM
Azores regional elections: PSD leader, Rui Rio, campaigns in the islands.  (https://jornalacores9.pt/rui-rio-diz-que-vale-a-pena-mudar-partido-que-governa-a-regiao-dos-acores/)


PSD leader, Rui Rio, and PSD-Azores leader, José Manuel Bolieiro, talking to a voter in Faial island.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, entered in the Azores election campaign this week as he joined José Manuel Bolieiro in campaign events in Faial and Pico islands. Mr Rio said that a change of government would be quite positive for the islands and that's worth it. He also accused the PS of using its power in the public administration to pressure voters to vote PS, adding that the PSD consulate in the Azores (1976-1996) gave a much more positive and harmonious development of the islands. Later, in an interview to RTP-Azores, Rio said the PS losing its majority would be a "half victory" for the PSD.

PS-Azores leader, Vasco Cordeiro, already responded to Rio's attacks:


Quote
PS / Açores leader accuses Rui Rio of wanting to "pass the Azoreans for fools"

Vasco Cordeiro said Mr Rio accusations are ludicrous citting the example of Madeira, where the PSD governs nonstop for 44 years. Mr Cordeiro says Rui Rio may think that the Azoreans are fools when they are not. He also pointed some contradictions in the PSD-Azores in the past, adding that the PSD cannot be trusted.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2020, 10:07:25 AM
Local government: The government wants to pass a law to create up to new 600 parishes. President Marcelo and the PSD are against.


Quote
Marcelo rejects reform of the map of parishes before local elections - RTP Notícias

The government is planning a law to restore up to 600 parishes that were extinct in the 2012 local administration reform. Many local organizations are lobbying for the restitution of many parishes since 2013, claiming that the 2012 local reform created problems especially in rural parishes. The government says the new law would correct some aspects of the 2012 reform and would create new rules for creation, merge and extinction of parishes. But, President Marcelo has already announced that any changes of the local map during 2021 will be met with a veto, adding that there cannot be changes in the map during an election year. The PSD is also against the change.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 10, 2020, 01:30:23 PM
What are parishes in Portugal? Subdivisions of municipalities?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2020, 01:42:51 PM
What are parishes in Portugal? Subdivisions of municipalities?

Exactly. 306 out of the 308 municipalities have a certain number of parishes that are the last level of administrative divisions. There are currently 3,092 parishes and before the 2012 reform, there were around 4,260. In local elections, voters cast ballots for mayor, municipal assemblies and parish assemblies. Parishes assemblies articulate with mayors many topics like urban planning, education services, water and sewer services, cultural and entertainment events, among others. In summary, parishes inform municipal councils of the needs they have as they are closer to problems than municipal councils, particularly in rural municipalities.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 10, 2020, 01:47:04 PM
What are parishes in Portugal? Subdivisions of municipalities?

Exactly. 306 out of the 308 municipalities have a certain number of parishes that are the last level of administrative divisions. There are currently 3,092 parishes and before the 2012 reform, there were around 4,260. In local elections, voters cast ballots for mayor, municipal assemblies and parish assemblies. Parishes assemblies articulate with mayors many topics like urban planning, education services, water and sewer services, cultural and entertainment events, among others. In summary, parishes inform municipal councils of the needs they have as they are closer to problems than municipal councils, particularly in rural municipalities.

Interesting. We don't generally have similar things in Italy. What's up with the 2 remaining municipalities? Tiny islands? Or maybe Lisbon and Porto have a different tier system?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2020, 01:54:59 PM
What are parishes in Portugal? Subdivisions of municipalities?

Exactly. 306 out of the 308 municipalities have a certain number of parishes that are the last level of administrative divisions. There are currently 3,092 parishes and before the 2012 reform, there were around 4,260. In local elections, voters cast ballots for mayor, municipal assemblies and parish assemblies. Parishes assemblies articulate with mayors many topics like urban planning, education services, water and sewer services, cultural and entertainment events, among others. In summary, parishes inform municipal councils of the needs they have as they are closer to problems than municipal councils, particularly in rural municipalities.

Interesting. We don't generally have similar things in Italy. What's up with the 2 remaining municipalities? Tiny islands? Or maybe Lisbon and Porto have a different tier system?

The 2 municipalies with just 1 parish are Corvo island in the Azores and São João da Madeira in Aveiro district, although São João da Madeira elects a parish assembly and Corvo doesn't as it only has 350, or so, inhabitants. Some parishes in Azores also don't elect a parish assembly adding also a parish in Vila de Rei, Castelo Branco. Parishes with very small populations insted of electing a parish assembly, have a town hall of voters where they discuss topics. Porto and Lisbon have each several parishes, Porto has 7 parishes and Lisbon has 24.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 10, 2020, 02:11:27 PM
What are parishes in Portugal? Subdivisions of municipalities?

Exactly. 306 out of the 308 municipalities have a certain number of parishes that are the last level of administrative divisions. There are currently 3,092 parishes and before the 2012 reform, there were around 4,260. In local elections, voters cast ballots for mayor, municipal assemblies and parish assemblies. Parishes assemblies articulate with mayors many topics like urban planning, education services, water and sewer services, cultural and entertainment events, among others. In summary, parishes inform municipal councils of the needs they have as they are closer to problems than municipal councils, particularly in rural municipalities.

Interesting. We don't generally have similar things in Italy. What's up with the 2 remaining municipalities? Tiny islands? Or maybe Lisbon and Porto have a different tier system?

The 2 municipalies with just 1 parish are Corvo island in the Azores and São João da Madeira in Aveiro district, although São João da Madeira elects a parish assembly and Corvo doesn't as it only has 350, or so, inhabitants. Some parishes in Azores also don't elect a parish assembly adding also a parish in Vila de Rei, Castelo Branco. Parishes with very small populations insted of electing a parish assembly, have a town hall of voters where they discuss topics. Porto and Lisbon have each several parishes, Porto has 7 parishes and Lisbon has 24.

I see. Corvo is so fascinating. Those 350 monarchists!
I have actually never seen a town hall of voters. They must be interesting.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2020, 02:31:16 PM
What are parishes in Portugal? Subdivisions of municipalities?

Exactly. 306 out of the 308 municipalities have a certain number of parishes that are the last level of administrative divisions. There are currently 3,092 parishes and before the 2012 reform, there were around 4,260. In local elections, voters cast ballots for mayor, municipal assemblies and parish assemblies. Parishes assemblies articulate with mayors many topics like urban planning, education services, water and sewer services, cultural and entertainment events, among others. In summary, parishes inform municipal councils of the needs they have as they are closer to problems than municipal councils, particularly in rural municipalities.

Interesting. We don't generally have similar things in Italy. What's up with the 2 remaining municipalities? Tiny islands? Or maybe Lisbon and Porto have a different tier system?

The 2 municipalies with just 1 parish are Corvo island in the Azores and São João da Madeira in Aveiro district, although São João da Madeira elects a parish assembly and Corvo doesn't as it only has 350, or so, inhabitants. Some parishes in Azores also don't elect a parish assembly adding also a parish in Vila de Rei, Castelo Branco. Parishes with very small populations insted of electing a parish assembly, have a town hall of voters where they discuss topics. Porto and Lisbon have each several parishes, Porto has 7 parishes and Lisbon has 24.

I see. Corvo is so fascinating. Those 350 monarchists!
I have actually never seen a town hall of voters. They must be interesting.

It's more like 86 or 90 monarchists. ;) And I don't think it's because Corvo is monarchist, the PPM MP in the Azores parliament is very popular and helps a lot the island in the regional parliament and his influence is strong there. The PS normally leads the vote in Corvo, but 4 years ago, in the 2016 regionals, it was basically a 3-way race between PS, PPM and PSD: 37% PS, 32% PPM, 26% PSD. We'll see what happens this year, but the PPM candidate will probably be reelected.

A town hall of voters is basically a forum where everybody living in the parish meets in a room, discuss topics and then vote by secret ballot for a new parish president. A report, from Jornal do Fundão, shows the scenes in a parish town hall in São João do Peso, Vila de Rei.  (https://www.jornaldofundao.pt/sociedade/freguesia-elege-junta-forma-diferente/)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 10, 2020, 02:37:15 PM
It's more like 86 or 90 monarchists. ;) And I don't think it's because Corvo is monarchist, the PPM MP in the Azores parliament is very popular and helps a lot the island in the regional parliament and his influence is strong there. The PS normally leads the vote in Corvo, but 4 years ago, in the 2016 regionals, it was basically a 3-way race between PS, PPM and PSD: 37% PS, 32% PPM, 26% PSD. We'll see what happens this year, but the PPM candidate will probably be reelected.

A town hall of voters is basically a forum where everybody living in the parish meets in a room, discuss topics and then vote by secret ballot on issues and for a new parish president. A report, from Jornal do Fundão, shows the scenes in a parish town hall in São João do Peso, Vila de Rei.  (https://www.jornaldofundao.pt/sociedade/freguesia-elege-junta-forma-diferente/)

Well yes I know what a town hall is, and I have seen images of ones in Massachusetts I think, although I had no idea they existed in Portugal. Just I have never seen one in the flesh because they are not used here.

So the PPM representative has no actual ideology besides assuring the pork barrel for Corvo? Which would not be at all surprising to be honest.
[also, funny name; that word means raven in Italian too]


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2020, 02:45:07 PM
It's more like 86 or 90 monarchists. ;) And I don't think it's because Corvo is monarchist, the PPM MP in the Azores parliament is very popular and helps a lot the island in the regional parliament and his influence is strong there. The PS normally leads the vote in Corvo, but 4 years ago, in the 2016 regionals, it was basically a 3-way race between PS, PPM and PSD: 37% PS, 32% PPM, 26% PSD. We'll see what happens this year, but the PPM candidate will probably be reelected.

A town hall of voters is basically a forum where everybody living in the parish meets in a room, discuss topics and then vote by secret ballot on issues and for a new parish president. A report, from Jornal do Fundão, shows the scenes in a parish town hall in São João do Peso, Vila de Rei.  (https://www.jornaldofundao.pt/sociedade/freguesia-elege-junta-forma-diferente/)

Well yes I know what a town hall is, and I have seen images of ones in Massachusetts I think, although I had no idea they existed in Portugal. Just I have never seen one in the flesh because they are not used here.

So the PPM representative has no actual ideology besides assuring the pork barrel for Corvo? Which would not be at all surprising to be honest.
[also, funny name; that word means raven in Italian too]

Basically yes. Because he's a very well known person in the island, he was teacher and head of the school there, people vote for him because he "delivers".

This is him:

Quote
PPM wants parliamentary group and promises to work "to exhaustion"


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2020, 06:55:10 PM
Azores regional elections: PS presents their election manifesto.


Quote
PS wants to “deepen and reform the autonomy”

The PS presented, today, their election manifesto for the October 25 regional elections. The Socialists, who are running for their 6th consecutive term, want to continue to reform the autonomy of the Azores region. They propose some policies that would make the region more "independent" from Lisbon, plus presented some social policies. The main policies are the following:

- Extinction of the office of the Representative of the Republic;
- Implementation of electronic voting in Azorean elections;
- Change of the electoral system to introduce preferential vote in open lists;
- Reinforce the Azores autonomy by giving more powers like to decree state of emergency and others;
- Creation of a second instance Court in the Azores region;
- Creation of an Azores EP election constituency;
- More investment in education;
- Promote Azorean products and services;
- More investment and hirings for the regional health service and creation of a "digital hospital";
- Strengthen the transition to a more digital and green economy;
- Continue the modernization of the public administration;
- Turn agriculture less bureaucratic and more qualified;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 11, 2020, 06:33:33 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper:  (http://www.ultraperiferias.pt/2020/10/sondagem-sol.html)

Vote share %:

38.8% PS (+0.3)
29.0% PSD (+0.8 )
   8.1% BE (-0.2)
   5.5% CDU (-0.3)
   4.8% CHEGA (+0.3)
   3.3% CDS (+0.8 )  
   2.0% PAN (-1.3)
   1.3% IL (+0.3)
   7.2% Others/Invalid (-0.7)

Other topics:

Q1: Do you think Parliament will approve the 2021 budget?

55% Yes
33% No
12% Undecided

Q2: Who do you think will win the November elections in the USA?

48% Joe Biden
36% Donald Trump
16% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 October 2020. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 11, 2020, 08:25:00 AM
Speaker Ferro Rodrigues accepts CHEGA's Constitutional review proposals:


Quote
Speaker of Parliament admitted draft constitutional review of Chega

Ferro Rodrigues, Speaker of Parliament, accepted the Constitutional review draft made by CHEGA after the Parliamentary Constitutional Committee ruled that although some proposals are clearly unconstitutional, the draft cannot be barred from being discussed in Parliament. Some of the proposal are very controversial like the physical castration for pedophiles and that the offices of PM and President should only be held by individuals with Portuguese origins. The party also proposes forced labour for prisoners and the removal of the term "Republic" as a form of government in the Constitution. All parties from left to right are against the draft.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 11, 2020, 09:43:21 AM
So its just CHEGA posturing, basically?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 11, 2020, 10:00:39 AM

Yep. Besides CHEGA, I believe no party will propose any changes in the Constitution this time around. And this is just, like you said, political posturing. They also proposed, in early September, a law to write in the Constitution a limit to the number of cabinet ministers and a referendum to reduce the number of MPs in Parliament. All were declared unconstitutional, and the MP reduction is even written in the Constitution, as it stipulates that Parliament can have a total number of MPs between 180 and 230.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 11, 2020, 03:29:52 PM
It's more like 86 or 90 monarchists. ;) And I don't think it's because Corvo is monarchist, the PPM MP in the Azores parliament is very popular and helps a lot the island in the regional parliament and his influence is strong there. The PS normally leads the vote in Corvo, but 4 years ago, in the 2016 regionals, it was basically a 3-way race between PS, PPM and PSD: 37% PS, 32% PPM, 26% PSD. We'll see what happens this year, but the PPM candidate will probably be reelected.

A town hall of voters is basically a forum where everybody living in the parish meets in a room, discuss topics and then vote by secret ballot on issues and for a new parish president. A report, from Jornal do Fundão, shows the scenes in a parish town hall in São João do Peso, Vila de Rei.  (https://www.jornaldofundao.pt/sociedade/freguesia-elege-junta-forma-diferente/)

Well yes I know what a town hall is, and I have seen images of ones in Massachusetts I think, although I had no idea they existed in Portugal. Just I have never seen one in the flesh because they are not used here.

So the PPM representative has no actual ideology besides assuring the pork barrel for Corvo? Which would not be at all surprising to be honest.
[also, funny name; that word means raven in Italian too]
This applies to pretty much every relevant party in the Azores aside from the far-left. The Azorean PS, PSD and CDS are basically identical.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 11, 2020, 03:37:23 PM
Ferro Rodrigues, Speaker of Parliament, accepted the Constitutional review draft made by CHEGA after the Parliamentary Constitutional Committee ruled that although some proposals are clearly unconstitutional, the draft cannot be barred from being discussed in Parliament. Some of the proposal are very controversial like the physical castration for pedophiles and that the offices of PM and President should only be held by individuals with Portuguese origins. The party also proposes forced labour for prisoners and the removal of the term "Republic" as a form of government in the Constitution. All parties from left to right are against the draft.

I know this is posturing but CHEGA is just insane lmao.

So the PPM representative has no actual ideology besides assuring the pork barrel for Corvo? Which would not be at all surprising to be honest.
[also, funny name; that word means raven in Italian too]
This applies to pretty much every relevant party in the Azores aside from the far-left. The Azorean PS, PSD and CDS are basically identical.

Well I have now seen Mike88's below post about the PS Azorean platform and indeed like 80% of that has nothing to do with being centre-left or socialist or whatever. I can't imagine the PSD platform is comparably different.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 11, 2020, 04:32:11 PM
So the PPM representative has no actual ideology besides assuring the pork barrel for Corvo? Which would not be at all surprising to be honest.
[also, funny name; that word means raven in Italian too]
This applies to pretty much every relevant party in the Azores aside from the far-left. The Azorean PS, PSD and CDS are basically identical.
Well I have now seen Mike88's below post about the PS Azorean platform and indeed like 80% of that has nothing to do with being centre-left or socialist or whatever. I can't imagine the PSD platform is comparably different.

The PSD manifesto has at least 2 main policies that are basically the same as the PS:
Main policies:

- Decentralize and de-governmentalize the region;
- Creation of a regional mobility market to ease transportation of people and goods;
- Creation of a special tariff for residents flying within the archipelago;
- Reduction of VAT and Corporate taxes;
- Remove political top jobs from the Health department to reinforce the independency of the department;
- Modernize and support media companies, especially RTP-Azores;
- Creation of an European Parliament constituency from Azores;
- Turn SATA airlines solvent and maintain the public hold of the company;
- Invest in digital transformation of regional services, from health to overall services;

Overall, the main, if only, difference between PS and PSD in Azores may be regarding taxes, mainly corporate ones. The rest, social welfare support, government businesses and so, there's not a lot of differences at all.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 12, 2020, 02:22:43 PM
2021 budget draft presented: BE doesn't approve the draft, PCP doesn't react and PS is willing to negotiate.


Quote
OE 2021: Catarina Martins says that “there are no conditions to make the budget viable”

The government approved, yesterday, their final draft of the 2021 budget. The budget has a series of social policies aimed, clearly, to attract the support of BE and PCP. However, the reaction by both parties wasn't positive: BE leader, Catarina Martins, said that if the budget isn't changed, the party will vote against; PCP didn't react but their main labour union, CGTP, is protesting against the budget. The PS, and the government, are willing to compromise and negotiate but warn that rejecting a budget in this period doesn't make sense and it would be irresponsible. According to the media, BE wants the government to forbid firing in companies with profits, hire more doctors to the NHS, a bigger and broader social support network and no more money to the Novo Banco.

Overall, the 2021 budget draft has the following main policies:  (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/financas-publicas/orcamento-do-estado/detalhe/o-que-ja-se-conhece-sobre-o-orcamento-do-estado-para-2021)

- Increase of 10 euros in SS pensions after August 2021;
- New social support for workers without access to unemployment benefits;
- Increase of 66 euros in the unemployment subsidy;
- VAT credit for taxpayers who use businesses most hit by the pandemic;
- End of Golden Visas in Lisbon and Porto;
- Tax deductions for gyms and after school sports;
- End of the petrol tax exemption in Azores and Madeira regions;
- Hiring of more than 4,200 new staff for the NHS;
- Creation of a special subsidy for NHS workers that deal with Covid patients;
- No increase of wages in the Public sector;
- Pain subsidy for local workers in hard labour like garbage collectors workers;
- Increase of the national minimum wage;
- Forbid firings in companies that have fiscal benefits;
- GDP growth of 5.4% in 2021;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 13, 2020, 02:39:05 PM
CCDR elections: More than 10,000 local officials are electing the 5 new presidents for the CCDR's.


Quote
More than 10,000 local officials elect, today, the five presidents of the CCDR's - RTP Notícias

The presidencies of CCDR's, Regional Coordination and Development Commissions, are being elected, today, by electoral college by more than 10,500 local officials across the country. The CCDR are the 5 regions of the country (Norte, Centro, Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve) which all have a president, until now nominated by the government, that manages EU funds and advances policies and measures to develop the regions. It's the closest thing to "administrative regions" Portugal has, but it's a very unknown office and the relevance of it is very, very small. You can say it's more like a "job for the boys". Due to a recent change, the presidents will no longer be nominated by the government but elected by local officials.

However, the process began very badly. The 5 candidates were negotiated between PS and PSD based on the electoral strength of both parties in each region. Therefore, the PSD would choose the candidates for the Norte and Centro, while the PS would choose the candidates for Lisbon, Alentejo e Algarve. The 5 names proposed were agreed by Costa and Rio personally. But, many local officials say the process in very opaque and that local governments weren't even asked about the candidates. In 4 regions there's only one candidate, but in Alentejo, the PS candidate will face the incumbent chairman, nominated in the past by the PSD, who is now running as an independent. Many local officials announced they would not vote or vote blank/invalid. BE, PCP, CDS, CHEGA, IL and Livre also say the elections is a joke and it's only a PS-PSD union of interest.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 13, 2020, 04:43:36 PM
CCDR elections: More than 10,000 local officials are electing the 5 new presidents for the CCDR's.

All of the names chosen by Costa and Rio were elected:


Quote
CCDR distributed as Rio and Costa agreed to. Only independent candidate loses to the socialist candidate.

In Alentejo, the only "real race", the incumbent president, a PSD member who ran as an independent, lost by 87 votes, out of 1,158 votes, to the candidate chosen by the PS:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/ccdr-alentejo-muda-de-maos-12917915.html)

43.9% António Ceia da Silva (PS)
36.4% Roberto Pereira Grilo (Ind)
19.4% Blank ballots
  0.3% Invalid ballots

It's still unclear the number of Invalid ballots across the country or even the turnout of elected officials who cast a ballot.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 13, 2020, 05:20:43 PM
1. Are the Azores and Madera part of any CCDR?

2. Well I agree with the minor parties that these CCDR elections sound like jokes to be honest.

3. The budget... argh BE and PCP are making me sweat nervously.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 13, 2020, 05:36:45 PM
1. Are the Azores and Madera part of any CCDR?

2. Well I agree with the minor parties that these CCDR elections sound like jokes to be honest.

3. The budget... argh BE and PCP are making me sweat nervously.

Azores and Madeira have real regional governments, with some rules of their own, autonomy and real a regional structure. Only the regions in mainland Portugal are part of CCDR. The question of regionalization on Portugal is very old, and it was rejected in 1998 in a referendum by a 64% to 36%, although the then map proposed was considered a joke. Recent polling says that voters are more open to regions nowadays, but it's still a tricky terrain for parties and politicians. These elections are seen as a bit of a joke as even many local officials say it doesn't represent no one. Plus, like I said above, the office itself is a huge unknown. None of the names are widely known by the electorate and, citting former dictator Salazar, "In politics, what seems, it is", and all of this seems like power sharing between the PS and PSD.

About the budget, all is pure theatre, frankly. No one wants a crisis and there cannot be one as the President cannot dissolve Parliament and polls show that every party, with the exception of CHEGA, would lose ground in a possible snap election. The budget will pass, most likely, either with the abstention of both BE and CDU, or the abstention of at least one of them. But, no one is looking good on this whole situation.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 13, 2020, 06:00:58 PM
1. Are the Azores and Madera part of any CCDR?

2. Well I agree with the minor parties that these CCDR elections sound like jokes to be honest.

3. The budget... argh BE and PCP are making me sweat nervously.

Azores and Madeira have real regional governments, with some rules of their own, autonomy and real a regional structure. Only the regions in mainland Portugal are part of CCDR. The question of regionalization on Portugal is very old, and it was rejected in 1998 in a referendum by a 64% to 36%, although the then map proposed was considered a joke. Recent polling says that voters are more open to regions nowadays, but it's still a tricky terrain for parties and politicians. These elections are seen as a bit of a joke as even many local officials say it doesn't represent no one. Plus, like I said above, the office itself is a huge unknown. None of the names are widely known by the electorate and, citting former dictator Salazar, "In politics, what seems, it is", and all of this seems like power sharing between the PS and PSD.

About the budget, all is pure theatre, frankly. No one wants a crisis and there cannot be one as the President cannot dissolve Parliament and polls show that every party, with the exception of CHEGA, would lose ground in a possible snap election. The budget will pass, most likely, either with the abstention of both BE and CDU, or the abstention of at least one of them. But, no one is looking good on this whole situation.

I have checked and according to Wikipedia the CCDR - which correspond to the NUTS 2* subdivisions - have borders that don't follow district borders, which seems quite a problem for future real implementation.

Better if the budget is all theatre, but it is still a play that makes me sweat. We'll see what happens.

*I can't state just how perfect the name of the EU statistical subdivisions is. NUTS. It really is a gift of God.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 14, 2020, 02:50:55 PM

I have checked and according to Wikipedia the CCDR - which correspond to the NUTS 2* subdivisions - have borders that don't follow district borders, which seems quite a problem for future real implementation.

Better if the budget is all theatre, but it is still a play that makes me sweat. We'll see what happens.

*I can't state just how perfect the name of the EU statistical subdivisions is. NUTS. It really is a gift of God.

It's not about borders , it's mostly about the cost. Portugal is a very uneven country between the main urban and rural areas, but also between Lisbon and the rest of the country. National Governments are regularly accused of not knowing the problems the rest of the country faces and demand more power for local authorities. Indeed, governments have been giving more and more power to local governments regarding schools, taxes and so on, but the money that the State gives to local governments continues stagnant and, in some cases, even a bit lower. So, how can a country that barely finances local and national government, can finance 5 new regional structures? That's the issue.

Anyway, the overall results of the CCDR elections are the following:

73.0% Valid votes for candidates (6,142)
23.1% Blank ballots (1,948)
  3.9% Invalid ballots (328)

78.8% Turnout (8,418)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 15, 2020, 02:16:52 PM
New Covid measures: Mandatory Covid app destined to fail, but mandatory masks will probably pass.


Quote
Covid-19: PSD saves Government in street masks, but both leave app in double boiler

The controversy about the obligation of everyone that has an iphone or android to download the government's covid tracing app continues and it's very likely to fail. The PSD said it will support mandatory masks on the street, but didn't propose or endorse the mandatory app. Even in the PS, many say the meassure is illegal and President Marcelo says that if he receives the law, he will sent it to the Constitutional Court. The rest of smaller parties are also totally against the mandatory app.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 17, 2020, 06:27:17 AM
Eurosondagem poll on the 2021 Presidential elections:  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/presidenciais-eurosondagem-da-vitoria-a-marcelo-na-primeira-volta-e-segundo-lugar-a-andre-ventura)

Vote share %:

61.0% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-8.6)
11.0% André Ventura (+3.8 )
10.0% Ana Gomes (+3.1)
  8.5% Marisa Matias (+1.6)
  5.5% João Ferreira (+0.7)
  1.0% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (new)
  3.0% Others (-1.6)

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 October 2020. Polled 1,072 voters. MoE of 2.99%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 17, 2020, 06:40:53 AM
Azores regional elections: 3,541 voters registered to cast an early ballot, just 1.6% of all registered voters.


Quote
Over 3,500 people registered for early voting.

3,541 voters have signed to cast an early ballot for the Azores regional elections. Ballots will cast tomorrow, October 18, in polling stations across the country and islands. According to the data sent by the Azores government, 1,823 voters in the Azores islands asked to cast an early ballot, 1,714 voters in mainland Portugal asked to cast a ballot, and just 4 in Madeira asked the same. The island with the highest share of early voting applications is Corvo with 29 voters registering, almost 9% of all registered voters in the island. The biggest island, S. Miguel, only had 904 voters registering, just 0.70% of all voters in that island.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 17, 2020, 07:14:16 AM
Tensions in the PSD: Many MPs and party supporters are angry at some Rui Rio's decisions lately:


Quote
PSD MPs reject mandatory app against Rio decision

The mandatory app, the budget and the possible support for a euthanasia referendum is infuriating many PSD members as they totally disagree with Rui Rio's decisions. Regarding the mandatory covid app, Rio said that idea didn't had legs to go on but didn't outright rejected, while his caucus said "hell no" to the idea. Then there's the budget. The PSD will announce next week how they will vote regarding the budget. Although it's very likely the party will vote against, the late decision is not going well with many party members. And finally, euthanasia. The party will decide, also next week, how they will vote regarding a possible referendum about the topic, a matter to be discussed in Parliament. The issue is that in the party's congress, earlier this year, a motion saying the party must support a referendum was approved and now Rio could face an intern party "punishment" for not following what the congress voted.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 17, 2020, 07:34:58 AM
Is Rui Rio purposefully trying to lose voters to CHEGA? Lmao
Oh well. I guess I'll have the answer to this when the party decides its position on assisted suicide.



In unrelated terms, the exit polls on the Wikipedia page of the last election suggest that the age gap is reversed in Portugal, is that reliable? And are there data on party preference by religious attendance?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 17, 2020, 07:52:35 AM
Is Rui Rio purposefully trying to lose voters to CHEGA? Lmao
Oh well. I guess I'll have the answer to this when the party decides its position on assisted suicide.



In unrelated terms, the exit polls on the Wikipedia page of the last election suggest that the age gap is reversed in Portugal, is that reliable? And are there data on party preference by religious attendance?

I don't know, honestly. Rio is known for making out of the box decisions that defy, a bit, logic and that's why almost half of the PSD hates his guts. Nonetheless, if you look at polls, the party is basically as it was a year ago, 27%, a bit lower or a bit higher but basically the same. Now, in a period where the media is now openly saying Costa has lost it, the PSD isn't surging and doesn't seem able to lay out a clear strategy, it seems all back and forward. CHEGA is benefiting a bit, of course, but I would argue that the main victim of CHEGA is still CDS. The problem of the PSD is that they haven't convinced those 10% of swing voters that they are a real alternative. Basically all of them are solidly in the PS camp, currently.

About the age gap, the youth electorate has recently been more aligned with the PSD, while the PS has fared very well with older voters. This "age gap" solidified after the bailout, with older voters angry at the PSD for pension cuts and becoming more supportive of the PS, and young voters, perhaps more aligned with liberal ideas, more supportive of the PSD. PAN and BE also have strong support in the youth electorate, because of environmental and job issues. Overall, the electorate of the 2 main parties can be summed up like this:

PS - Less educated, older, more female and middle to lower class voters; In terms of geography, very strong in urban/suburban areas, but also in some rural areas.

PSD - Highly educated, younger/middle age, more male, middle to upper class voters; In terms of geography, very strong in rural and small medium size cities, not very strong in big urban areas.

About religion attendance data, I don't know any. Would have to go to the ERC website and see the crosstabs of party support by religious attendance, if there's any. But, logic would say that PSD and CDS voters would have strong support, PS would have still a very considerable support also. BE, CDU and PAN less.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 17, 2020, 08:05:28 AM
About the age gap, the youth electorate has recently been more aligned with the PSD, while the PS has fared very well with older voters. This "age gap" solidified after the bailout, with older voters angry at the PSD for pension cuts and becoming more supportive of the PS, and young voters, perhaps more aligned with liberal ideas, more supportive of the PSD. PAN and BE also have strong support in the youth electorate, because of environmental and job issues. Overall, the electorate of the 2 main parties can be summed up like this:

PS - Less educated, older, more female and middle to lower class voters; In terms of geography, very strong in urban/suburban areas, but also in some rural areas.

PSD - Highly educated, younger/middle age, more male, middle to upper class voters; In terms of geography, very strong in rural and small medium size cities, not very strong in big urban areas.

About religion attendance data, I don't know any. Would have to go to the ERC website and see the crosstabs of party support by religious attendance, if there's any. But, logic would say that PSD and CDS voters would have strong support, PS would have still a very considerable support also. BE, CDU and PAN less.

I see. The PS electorate screams #populist <3 Old Left a ton, which I certainly like.

I think your logic on religious attendance makes sense, but I would really wish to see data.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on October 17, 2020, 08:16:09 AM
why does a north-south divide exist in Portugal, as seen most evidently in election results in relatively closer to 50-50 elections?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 17, 2020, 08:32:56 AM
I see. The PS electorate screams #populist <3 Old Left a ton, which I certainly like.

I think your logic on religious attendance makes sense, but I would really wish to see data.

Found a study, from 2008, I know it's a bit old, that shows the relation between religion and party support: (https://estudogeral.uc.pt/bitstream/10316/12275/3/Tese_D.pdf) (data in page 240)

Religious: 60.7%
Non religious: 39.3%

Religious: 80.4% CDS; 78.2% PSD; 62.7% PS; 24.1% BE; 20.8% PCP
Non religious: 79.2% PCP; 75.9% BE; 37.3% PS; 21.8% PSD; 19.6% CDS

Keep in mind, also, that in the 2011 census, just 19% of the population said it attends religious events regularly.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 17, 2020, 08:41:17 AM
why does a north-south divide exist in Portugal, as seen most evidently in election results in relatively closer to 50-50 elections?

All is related to the 1974 revolution and the events that followed. The country was very divided between North and South as many people, particularly small land owners in the North/Center feared the mass expropriations of lands that were happening in the Alentejo region. Many people revolted against the left, especially the Communists, in the North and Center and these two regions became more supportive of PSD, and for a short period, CDS. PS also has a big support in these regions, as the PS was, back in the 70's, a strong opponent of the PCP. The south became very strong for the PCP until the late 80's with the colapse of the USSR, the PS started to make inroads in these regions, and ultimately became the largest party in the south. While in the North and Center, rural areas are more aligned to the right and urban ones to left, in the South, especially Alentejo, rural areas are overwhelmingly left, while more urban areas are more align with right.

Almost 50 years later, the voting patterns remain quite solid.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 17, 2020, 02:54:18 PM
Azores regional election campaign: TV broadcasts.

PS - Socialist Party



PSD - Social Democratic Party



CDS - CDS-People's Party


BE - Left Bloc


PAN - People-Animals-Nature



PPM - People's Monarchist Party


CH - CHEGA



Didn't find TV broadcasts from CDU and IL. Also, CHEGA's TV broadcast... yikes!!


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 18, 2020, 03:12:50 AM

Didn't find TV broadcasts from CDU and IL. Also, CHEGA's TV broadcast... yikes!!

Oh well. I watched it and yeah, I don't need to actually know Portuguese to agree that that was... yikes!

Also, did he really say "povo" and "terra" (which from my scarce knowledge of Portuguese should be people and land) like ten times each? Lol


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 18, 2020, 05:56:04 AM

Didn't find TV broadcasts from CDU and IL. Also, CHEGA's TV broadcast... yikes!!

Oh well. I watched it and yeah, I don't need to actually know Portuguese to agree that that was... yikes!

Also, did he really say "povo" and "terra" (which from my scarce knowledge of Portuguese should be people and land) like ten times each? Lol

It seems like it. Yes, "povo" means people and "terra" means land. CHEGA's TV broadcast seems so amateur compared with the other parties, even PPM's broadcast, which is a much smaller party than CHEGA, is much better and professional.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 19, 2020, 02:05:10 PM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-10-19-Sondagem-Bloco-de-Esquerda-reforca-terceiro-lugar-com-negociacoes-do-Orcamento-do-Estado)

Vote share %:

37.5% PS (+0.1)
24.8% PSD (+0.5)
11.0% BE (+1.1)
   7.7% CHEGA (+0.3)
   4.3% CDU (-0.8 )
   4.1% CDS (-0.2)  
   4.1% PAN (nc)
   2.4% IL (+0.3)
   0.4% Livre (nc)
   0.4% Others (-0.6)
  3.3% Blank/Invalid (-0.8 )

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 618 voters. MoE of 4.00%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 19, 2020, 04:47:52 PM
António Costa drops the controversial mandatory Covid app proposal, and mandatory masks, for now.


Quote
Coronavirus: Government suspends proposal on mandatory use of the StayAway Covid app and masks

In an interview to TVI, PM António Costa said he dropped the proposals of mandatory masks on the street and the mandatory Covid app and that he informed the Speaker of Parliament that a debate and vote on these matters will not be held anymore. Costa said that he tough the app would be more consensual than mandatory masks, which surprised him, and that mandatory masks will now be discussed separately from the app as it has more consensus. He also added that confinements and a declaration of a State of Emergency, like what happened in March/April, are not on the table.

Costa also talked about the 2021 budget tensions and said the country cannot have a political crisis, adding that he will not turn his back from the country in this moment of crisis and that he would do everything in his power to prevent a crisis. The tone is different compared to the September Expresso interview where Costa said that if the budget fails, the government ends. He concluded saying that budget will only fail if the leftwing aligns with the right to struck down the budget and asked the BE and PCP if they really want to align themselves with the right.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 19, 2020, 05:46:30 PM
PSD will give freedom of vote to MPs in the Euthanasia referendum debate this week. Party also refuses all of CHEGA's Constitutional reforms:


Quote
PSD gives MPs freedom of vote in referendum on euthanasia

The PSD leadership decided to give freedom of vote to MPs in Friday's vote regarding a possible referendum about euthanasia legalization. This was Rui Rio's preferred position. Nonetheless, the topic is very divisive in the PSD. Polls shows the party is basically 50-50 on the issue and MPs have also different positions. However, a motion passed in the PSD last congress, aligns the party with a vote in favour of a referendum. A few PSD members have already filed complaints against Rio to force him to follow the congress vote. The party's tribunal already filed all the complaints against Rio, but ruled that any decision has to follow the Congress votes, although it highlights that not all congress motions should, or could, be followed by the party as whole. This could create some tensions in the party caucus meeting next Thursday.

The Social Democrats also announced they will reject all of CHEGA's Constitutional reforms (https://www.publico.pt/2020/10/19/politica/noticia/psd-vai-chumbar-proposta-revisao-constitucional-chega-1935824). CHEGA is already accusing the PSD of being "cowards" and that Rio himself has supported some of the policies they propose.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 20, 2020, 02:33:34 PM
Azores regional elections: Electoral manifestos of the smaller parties.  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/um-hospital-em-cada-ilha-uma-policia-regional-ou-uma-moeda-complementar-ao-euro-as-propostas-dos-partidos-nas-eleicoes-regionais-dos-acores)

PS and PSD manifestos have already been posted, and now here's the main proposals of the other smaller parties running in the Azores regional election next Sunday, October 25:

CDS-People's Party:

- Retirement age to be anticipated by 3 years in the Azores;
- Creation of the figure of the Family Nurse;
- Expand the exemption of boat tax until the 1st semester of 2021;
- Greater bet on tourism with better transports;

Left Bloc (BE):

- More investment in social services;
- Creation of subsidies to attract workers in the Azores;
- Creation of a big international center for sea studies and climate change;
- More efforts to fight domestic violence and promote gender equality;
- Creation of public housing exchange for affordable housing;

Democratic Unitarian Coalition (CDU):

- Increase of wage of fishermen;
- More regional production and focus on internal tourism;
- Increase in wages and more investment for social services, health, education;

People's Monarchist Party (PPM):

- Policies to make the price of milk "fairer";
- Defending health services close to populations in all islands;
- Defending the environment and the sea;

People-Animals-Nature (PAN):

- More autonomy for the Azores in the areas of the sea, food sovereignty, energy and defense;
- Creation of a regional police;
- Creation of a Regional Secretariat for the Environment and Climate Change and a Regional Directorate for Animal Protection and Welfare;
- VAT exemption for regional products;

CHEGA (CH):

- Making Azores self-sustainable in farming production;
- Reduction of regional MPs and the size of the regional government;
- Creation of the figures of the Family Nurse and Family Psychologist;
- Create a plan to "restructure the region" in order to relaunch the economy and invest in education;

Liberal Initiative (IL):

- Privatization of RTP-Azores;
- Reduction of income taxes and corporate taxes;
- Extinction of the office of Representative of the Republic;

Alliance (A):

- Construction of university residences for Azorean students in Lisbon, Porto and Coimbra;
- Creation of "sport cities" in the islands of S. Miguel and Terceira;
- More diversity in farming and less pesticides;
- Support for health workers and a creation of an anticipated pension fund for teachers;

PCTP-MRPP:

- Extinction of the office of Representative of the Republic;
- A Hospital in each island of the region;
- Creation of the "Island Political Council" elected by the electorate;

Earth Party (MPT):

- Local residences for students and decrease of tuition fees in university;
- Creation of a transparency office to fight corruption;
- Partial privatization of SATA airlines;
- Creation of the figure of the "elderly defender";


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 20, 2020, 02:52:33 PM
My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 20, 2020, 03:01:59 PM
My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

The fact that CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, campaigned in Azores for several days is another proof that something isn't going well for them is these elections. Adding to this, questions from the media on what will happen if they get humiliated next Sunday. We'll see.

Actually I think BE will poll third, CDS maybe fourth with PAN at a strong fifth. CDU may be kicked out of the regional parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 20, 2020, 04:17:14 PM
My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

Your brother is a liberal who dislikes socialists I assume?

I hope your mother is right by the way, lol.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 21, 2020, 04:37:20 PM
Finally, a poll on the Azores elections. :D

UCP-CESOP poll for RTP on the Azores regional elections:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/sondagem-ps-mantem-maioria-absoluta-nos-acores_v1268995)

Vote share %: (compared with the 2016 elections)

45% PS (-1), 28/32 seats
32% PSD (+1), 18/22
  3% CDS (-4), 1/3
  3% CHEGA (new), 0/2
  3% BE (-1), 0/2
  2% CDU (-1), 0/1
  2% PAN (+1), 0/1
  2% IL (new), 0/1
  1% PPM (nc), 1
  7% Others/Invalid (nc), 0

Poll conducted between 17 and 18 October 2020 in S. Miguel and Terceira islands. Polled 3,159 voters. MoE of 1.70%.

The smaller parties results are really surprising. Real fight for 3rd place and the PS majority could really be in danger. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 21, 2020, 05:11:12 PM
My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

Your brother is a liberal who dislikes socialists I assume?

I hope your mother is right by the way, lol.
I think he's more anti-establishment than anything else tbh (and in the Azores the PS is effectively the establishment), he used to vote BE in the past, I also recall he supported Marinho e Pinto (MPT) in 2014, and his political opinions have fluctuated quite a lot. Indeed he dislikes PS (everyone in our family does tbh) but in Portugal that doesn't necessarily mean disliking socialism or the left as a whole.

Back in 2019 leftist Twitter rejoiced when CDS bombed and Cristas stepped down, which really puzzled me. CDS disappearing doesn't mean the space to the right of PSD will magically disappear too, it just means something else (probably worse) will fill that space, and indeed Chega and to a lesser extent IL are far more unsavory imo. Similarly Cristas getting the boot obviously led to a more conservative leadership (though less than expected).

In any case I still think/hope CDS will at least retain their seats for Terceira (their party leader) and São Jorge (their strongest island).


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 21, 2020, 05:20:28 PM
My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

Your brother is a liberal who dislikes socialists I assume?

I hope your mother is right by the way, lol.
I think he's more anti-establishment than anything else tbh (and in the Azores the PS is effectively the establishment), he used to vote BE in the past, I also recall he supported Marinho e Pinto (MPT) in 2014, and his political opinions have fluctuated quite a lot. Indeed he dislikes PS (everyone in our family does tbh) but in Portugal that doesn't necessarily mean disliking socialism or the left as a whole.

Back in 2019 leftist Twitter rejoiced when CDS bombed and Cristas stepped down, which really puzzled me. CDS disappearing doesn't mean the space to the right of PSD will magically disappear too, it just means something else (probably worse) will fill that space, and indeed Chega and to a lesser extent IL are far more unsavory imo. Similarly Cristas getting the boot obviously led to a more conservative leadership (though less than expected).

In any case I still think/hope CDS will at least retain their seats for Terceira (their party leader) and São Jorge (their strongest island).

I don't know. That poll, and although polling in Azores is "complicated", points to a very bad night for CDS, winning just maybe 1 seat, maybe like you said from S. Jorge. The CHEGA and IL results are really surprising.

One point about the poll: this poll only polled people in S. Miguel and Terceira, where 80% of the population live. However, only 53% of seats are from these islands and the rest from the smaller islands and the compensation circle. CDS is very strong in S. Jorge, PS in Santa Maria and Faial and Pico will probably be very close between PS and PSD. Graciosa flip flops a lot as does Flores. Corvo can also be interesting if there's a 3 way race between PS, PPM and PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 22, 2020, 02:32:27 PM
Political update:

PSD announces they will vote against the 2021 budget. Negotiations between PS and BE/CDU are still ongoing.


Quote
PSD will vote against the budget. Pressure is all on the left

PSD leader Rui Rio announced what everybody already knew: the PSD will vote against the 2021 budget. In a speech to the PSD caucus, Rio said the budget has many issues and that Costa continues to not solve the big problems of debt in Portugal. Rio added that the budget "isn't realistic" criticizing the "ludicrous" forecast of tax revenues for 2021. According to Rio, the 2021 budget should focus more on jobs and businesses and that policies like the increase of the minimum wage, don't help businesses with no money right now.

The PS already responded to the PSD "No" vote to the budget criticizing Mr. Rio stands and saying that the PSD, and Rio, threw away the "national interest". At the same time, negotiations between PS and BE/CDU continue with some progress but not that much. The government is considering many vote possibilities: BE vote against and CDU/PAN abstention, or PAN voting in favour. The BE will make a decision regarding the budget next week.

Euthanasia referendum: Parliament starts to debate a possible referendum but a majority is against a referendum.


Quote
Parliament: Left united against euthanasia referendum, right divided

Parliament started debating, with a final vote tomorrow, a possible referendum on the euthanasia issue. The proposal is all but certain to fail as the left parties are against a referendum and the right is divided, particularly the PSD. The debate was quite low profile with parties not engaging each other. The PSD will give freedom of vote to their MPs, as will the PS. In the PSD, however, it's expected a majority will vote in favour of a referendum but some, including PSD leader Rui Rio, will vote against. The left parties, and some PSD MPs, say Parliament has all the legitimacy to rule on the issue, while the parties more on the right, IL, CDS and CHEGA, say that people's will should not be ignored and that a vote against is an act of "weakness".

Azores regional elections: Público newspaper says the PSD-Azores leader is being investigated for a  culpable insolvency in a public company when he was mayor.


Quote
Candidate for the presidency of the Azores government investigated for culpable insolvency

Público newspaper printed a story, today, regarding the PSD candidate in the Azores regional elections. With just 3 days left until election day, the newspaper says José Manuel Bolieiro is being investigated for "culpable insolvency" in a public company when he was mayor of Ponta Delgada (2012-2019). According to the report, Mr Bolieiro is accused of seeling the company, called Azores Parque, to a society with registered accounts when the company had a negative balance of 11 million euros. The former managers of Azores Parque are also accused of squandering assets. The PSD says the report is very strange because the facts aren't new and have already been discussed in Ponta Delgada city hall. Mr Bolieiro says the report is a clear act to disrupt the campaign and PSD leader Rui Rio accused Público newspaper of being "at the service of the PS".

The PS campaign, by the voice of Vasco Cordeiro, said all facts need to be investigated and that Mr Bolieiro has the right to the presumption of innocence as does everybody else. This the second "scandal" during the Azores campaign. The first was an email sent by the Azores tax authority to voters remaining them to register to vote and vote early. Opposition parties said this was clear abuse of power of the PS, and the Electoral Commission ruled that the Azores government shouldn't had sent the email.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 22, 2020, 06:10:10 PM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:  (http://quiosque.cofina.pt/jornal-de-negocios/20201023)

Vote share %:

56.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-4.1)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
  8.2% André Ventura (-1.2)
  6.1% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
  2.6% João Ferreira (-0.3)
  1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.0)
  4.1% None
  4.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 23, 2020, 03:38:15 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:  (http://quiosque.cofina.pt/jornal-de-negocios/20201023)

Vote share %:

56.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-4.1)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
  8.2% André Ventura (-1.2)
  6.1% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
  2.6% João Ferreira (-0.3)
  1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.0)
  4.1% None
  4.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

So basically zero chance this could become competitive?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Farmlands on October 23, 2020, 04:42:06 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:  (http://quiosque.cofina.pt/jornal-de-negocios/20201023)

Vote share %:

56.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-4.1)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
  8.2% André Ventura (-1.2)
  6.1% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
  2.6% João Ferreira (-0.3)
  1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.0)
  4.1% None
  4.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

So basically zero chance this could become competitive?

Pretty much. Firstly, Marcelo is a lot more warm and personable than our previous president, which alone should net him some votes. Also, he has used his veto power extremely competently, in my opinion, only voting down what were really bad measures, like a self-serving Party financing bill.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 23, 2020, 01:44:53 PM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:  (http://quiosque.cofina.pt/jornal-de-negocios/20201023)

Vote share %:

56.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-4.1)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
  8.2% André Ventura (-1.2)
  6.1% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
  2.6% João Ferreira (-0.3)
  1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.0)
  4.1% None
  4.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

So basically zero chance this could become competitive?

Pretty much. Firstly, Marcelo is a lot more warm and personable than our previous president, which alone should net him some votes. Also, he has used his veto power extremely competently, in my opinion, only voting down what were really bad measures, like a self-serving Party financing bill.

Not even close to being competitive. Presidential reelection elections are rarely competitive, the last one was in 1980, and even then Ramalho Eanes won by a 56% to 40% margin. And to be completely true, the last competitive presidential election in Portugal was the 1996 election when Sampaio beat Cavaco Silva by a 54% to 46% margin. Since then, they all can be considered "landslides".

Marcelo is going to be reelected to a 2nd term, the question is all about the margins: will it a strong mandate, like Soares 1991, or a weak one like Sampaio 2001 and Cavaco 2011, or something in between?.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 23, 2020, 01:59:43 PM
Euthanasia referendum is rejected by Parliament and the PSD mandatory masks bill was approved:


Quote
Referendum on  euthanasia "failed" in parliament

As expected, Parliament rejected the proposal to hold a referendum on the topic of euthanasia. All of the left parties voted against the proposal as did 9 PSD MPs, including PSD leader Rui Rio. The rest of the PSD caucus voted in favour alongside CDS and IL. CHEGA MP André Ventura failed to be present in the vote.

Parliament also passed a mandatory mask wearing bill proposed by the PSD.  (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/economia/2020-10-23-covid-19-parlamento-aprova-uso-obrigatorio-de-mascaras-na-rua/) The PSD bill forces the use of masks on the streets and fines people who don't follow the rule between 100 and 500 euros. The bill passed with the votes of PSD, PS and CDS. IL voted against and BE, CDU and PAN abstained. The mandatory mask wearing will be in place for the next 70 days.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 23, 2020, 04:31:43 PM
2021 Budget: PCP announces their abstention in the budget general vote but doesn't say what will do in the final vote.


Quote
OE 2021. PCP does not guarantee that it will keep their abstention in the final vote

The Communist Party announced it will abstain in the general budget vote next week, which almost makes it certain that Costa's 2021 budget will pass in the first vote. The PCP says it achieved one of their goals by making the increase in pensions to occur in January and not in August like the government planned. However, the party didn't say if they will give their "blessing" in the final vote, wanting to see the final text in the end of November.

Overall, the budget vote current standings are the following:

108 In favour (PS)
   86 Against (PSD, CDS, CHEGA, IL)
  12 Abstain (CDU)
   24 Undecided (BE, PAN, Ind. JKM, Ind. CR)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 24, 2020, 10:50:52 AM
The Azores regional elections are tomorrow.

This is the official website where results will be published tomorrow night: https://vpgr.azores.gov.pt/Sites/ALR2020/Default

There are 228,999 registered voters in 259 precincts across the 9 islands of the Azores.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 24, 2020, 02:10:00 PM
2021 Budget: Is BE preparing to announce a vote against?


Quote
BE prepares vote against the 2021 budget

The announcement of BE's vote intention regarding the 2021 budget is expected tomorrow, during election day in Azores. But, this weekend's media is reporting the party is preparing to vote against the budget draft as they government only accepted 4 out of 35 policy proposals made by the party. The party revealed this in a statement to the press, this afternoon, adding that some government promises in the party weren't kept also.

If BE decides to vote against, it will 108 in favour and 105 against, with PAN being the "kingmaker", but it's very likely PAN to abstain.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 07:11:24 AM
Voting is already underway across the Azores.

Polls opened at 8AM (9AM in Lisbon) and will close at 7PM (8PM in Lisbon). An exit poll from RTP-Azores will be revealed when polls close.

I believe turnout updates will be given during the day.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 07:37:36 AM
A polling station in Ponta Delgada (Fajã de Baixo parish):


Quote
The first elections in a pandemic. The Azores choose a new president.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 08:53:13 AM
Turnout at 11:00AM (12:00PM in Lisbon) is, so far, a bit up compared with 2016:

2020: 9.16% (+1.69)

2016: 7.47%
2012: 10.34%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 12:30:23 PM
Next turnout update expected during the next hour, or so. Also, the 11AM turnout figures don't include Ponta Delgada, 64,031 registered voters, which means the 11AM turnout numbers are bigger than 9.2%.

Turnout by municipality: https://vpgr.azores.gov.pt/Sites/ALR2020/Documentos/AfluenciaUrnas.pdf


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 01:04:59 PM
Turnout at 16:00PM (17:00PM in Lisbon)

2020: 32.68% (+3.39%)
2016: 29.29%
2012: 34.37%

74,512 voters have already cast a ballot, 80.0% of the overall 2016 numbers. It's all but certain that the final turnout rate will be higher than in 2016 (40.85%)

In terms of municipalities, Corvo has the highest rate of ballots cast so far, 68.2%, and Ponta Delgada the lowest, 25.7%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 01:38:14 PM
Live TV feed of RTP-Azores:

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtpacores

(Special election night coverage starts in about 20 minutes)

Also, RTP 3 (RTP News) TV link:

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 01:52:43 PM
Live TV feed of RTP-Azores:

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtpacores

(Special election night coverage starts in about 20 minutes)

Adding to this, the official results page where election returns will start to be published when polls close:

https://vpgr.azores.gov.pt/Sites/ALR2020/Default

Will post other results links when available.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 02:16:02 PM
At the same time:

2021 budget: PAN announces their abstention in the general budget vote this week.


Quote
PAN will abstain. Budget should pass in the specialty

PAN announced just a few moments ago that the party will abstain in the budget general vote this week. The announcement was made by the party's spokeswoman, Inês Sousa Real, said that there were advances in the negotiations between them and the government and that, although they cannot vote in favour, they cannot vote against so, they will abstain. Like the PCP, the party also says that their final vote is still up in the air, saying all is dependent on the budget parliamentary discussions during November.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 02:33:26 PM
RTP exit poll:

42-48% Turnout

Average of 45%. In 2016, only 40.85% cast a ballot. Polls close in less than half an hour.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 02:53:55 PM
Important note on the RTP exit poll:


Quote
There will only one exit poll for today's Regionals. The Center for Studies and Opinion Polls at the Universidade Católica Portuguesa will be on the islands of São Miguel and Terceira. We will not have predictions for the other seven islands.

5 minutes until polls close.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 03:03:19 PM
RTP exit poll:

37-41% PS
32-36% PSD
3-6% CDS
3-6% CHEGA
2-5% BE
2-3% PAN
1-2% CDU
1-2% IL
1-2% PPM

PS could lose their majority. CHEGA enters the regional parliament and could be the 3rd biggest party.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 03:06:16 PM
RTP exit poll:

37-41% PS
32-36% PSD
3-6% CDS
3-6% CHEGA
2-5% BE
2-3% PAN
1-2% CDU
1-2% IL
1-2% PPM

PS could lose their majority. CHEGA enters the regional parliament and could be the 3rd biggest party.

Seat projection: (29 needed for a majority)

26-30 PS
19-22 PSD
1-3 CDS
1-3 CHEGA
1-2 BE
1 PAN
1 PPM
0-2 CDU
0-1 IL


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 03:09:49 PM
Mixed feelings. PS losing the absolute majority after more than 2 decades of unchecked power would be great, but the possibility of a right-wing government with Chega is scary.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 03:13:36 PM
Mixed feelings. PS losing the absolute majority after more than 2 decades of unchecked power would be great, but the possibility of a right-wing government with Chega is scary.

PSD led majority is very unlikely, IMO, the PS will likely persue a deal with CDS like in César's 1st term in the 90's. But, that may not go down well in the national CDS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 25, 2020, 03:34:26 PM
RTP exit poll:

37-41% PS
32-36% PSD
3-6% CDS
3-6% CHEGA
2-5% BE
2-3% PAN
1-2% CDU
1-2% IL
1-2% PPM

PS could lose their majority. CHEGA enters the regional parliament and could be the 3rd biggest party.

This sounds like an underperformance for the Partido Socialista if the exit poll is correct, right?

(Don't know why but I wanted to spell out the full name)

Also, CHEGA third would be... bad.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 03:35:30 PM
PS says that they've won again and will now wait for the final results to see how to react. They still say a majority is possible, but the face of the PS spokesperson was very teeling.

PSD says Azores has voted for change and regarding a possible agreement with the rightwing parties they have no comment and will also wait for the results.

CDS is open for talks but says it will be a long night.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 03:38:02 PM
RTP exit poll:

37-41% PS
32-36% PSD
3-6% CDS
3-6% CHEGA
2-5% BE
2-3% PAN
1-2% CDU
1-2% IL
1-2% PPM

PS could lose their majority. CHEGA enters the regional parliament and could be the 3rd biggest party.

This sounds like an underperformance for the Partido Socialista if the exit poll is correct, right?

(Don't know why but I wanted to spell out the full name)

Also, CHEGA third would be... bad.

Yep, the PS underperformed compared with the only poll. PSD is clearly overperforming as is CHEGA. Like what crals said, a PSD+CDS+CHEGA+PPM+IL agreement is, on paper, possible but it's unlikely and this only happens in the highest share for each party.

BE is also announcing, as I write, their vote in the 2021 budget.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 03:41:13 PM
BE is also announcing, as I write, their vote in the 2021 budget.

Like the media was reporting yesterday, BE will vote agaisnt the 2021 budget. BE leader, Catarina Martins, just announced in a live statement.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 25, 2020, 03:44:58 PM
BE is also announcing, as I write, their vote in the 2021 budget.

Like the media was reporting yesterday, BE will vote agaisnt the 2021 budget. BE leader, Catarina Martins, just announced in a live statement.

So in the end the budget is going to pass but with the smallest margin possible?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 03:50:07 PM
BE is also announcing, as I write, their vote in the 2021 budget.

Like the media was reporting yesterday, BE will vote agaisnt the 2021 budget. BE leader, Catarina Martins, just announced in a live statement.

So in the end the budget is going to pass but with the smallest margin possible?

It looks like it. A 108 to 105 vote in favour. PEV, PCP satelite party, will also announce their vote I believe Tuesday, but it's likely they will follow the PCP abstention.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 03:54:18 PM
Vote count so far in the Azores elections:

38.5% counted:

42.6% PS
32.0% PSD
  7.3% CDS
  4.4% CHEGA
  2.9% PPM
  2.8% BE
  1.8% CDU
  1.1% PAN
  0.6% IL

Mostly rural parishes in so far.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 03:56:22 PM
Well, the geringonça is not just dead but buried now


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 03:59:55 PM
Well, the geringonça is not just dead but buried now
Totally.

Also, the vote returns, so far, from the Azores seems to be more PS friendly than the RTP projection. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 04:07:48 PM
PPM won Corvo with 40%, PS with 35% and PSD 22%.

CDS doing very well in S. Jorge island.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:03:50 PM
92.95% counted:

40.3% PS
32.7% PSD
  5.6% CDS
  5.1% CHEGA
  3.0% BE
  2.2% PPM
  1.8% PAN
  1.7% CDU
  1.7% IL
  5.9% Others/Invalid

46.0% Turnout

47.3% Right
46.8% Left


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 05:08:08 PM
PPM doing shockingly well outside Corvo! Seems the exit poll was wrong about PAN winning a seat.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:10:59 PM
PPM doing shockingly well outside Corvo! Seems the exit poll was wrong about PAN winning a seat.

Indeed. In Santa Maria, they got 12%. I thought PAN would get a seat in the compensation district.

Also, IL has surpassed CDU. PSD doing very well in Ponta Delgada, the "mayor factor" of course.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:18:10 PM
93.59% counted:

39.9% PS
32.9% PSD
  5.5% CDS
  5.1% CHEGA
  3.7% BE
  2.2% PPM
  1.9% PAN
  1.8% IL
  1.7% CDU


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:23:41 PM
IL seems to be on the path to surpass PAN also.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:30:21 PM
CHEGA has elected an MP. CDU will probably be out of the regional parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:35:15 PM
Better election results page:

https://regionais2020.azores.gov.pt/EleiConsulta/


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 05:40:17 PM
PPM officially won a 2nd seat :D


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:41:38 PM
Just 2 small parishes in Ponta Delgada are left to count.

So far, 98.72% in:

39.1% PS, 23 seats
33.7% PSD, 18
  5.6% CDS, 2
  5.1% CHEGA, 1
  3.8% BE
  2.4% PPM*, 2
  2.0% IL
  1.9% PAN
  1.7% CDU

* with the PPM/CDS alliance in Corvo.
  


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:43:56 PM

Do you think PAN and CDU will get a seat in the compensation district? It seems unlikely, right?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 05:46:50 PM

Do you think PAN and CDU will get a seat in the compensation district? It seems unlikely, right?
I agree, especially CDU is toast. They went from winning in Flores to getting 3% there, lol


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:48:20 PM

Do you think PAN and CDU will get a seat in the compensation district? It seems unlikely, right?
I agree, especially CDU is toast. They went from winning in Flores to getting 3% there, lol
Exactly, what the hell happened there?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 05:50:25 PM

Do you think PAN and CDU will get a seat in the compensation district? It seems unlikely, right?
I agree, especially CDU is toast. They went from winning in Flores to getting 3% there, lol
Exactly, what the hell happened there?
Their popular incumbent MP didn't run, instead his sister was the lead candidate.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:52:19 PM

Do you think PAN and CDU will get a seat in the compensation district? It seems unlikely, right?
I agree, especially CDU is toast. They went from winning in Flores to getting 3% there, lol
Exactly, what the hell happened there?
Their popular incumbent MP didn't run, instead his sister was the lead candidate.
Ahh, right. Big mistake.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 05:55:54 PM
Final results: The PS has lost it's majority.

39.1% PS, 25 seats (-5)
33.7% PSD, 21 (+2)
  5.5% CDS, 3 (-1)
  5.1% CHEGA, 2 (new)
  3.8% BE, 2 (nc)
  2.4% PPM, 2 (+1)
  1.9% IL, 1 (new)
  1.9% PAN, 1 (+1)
  1.7% CDU, 0 (-1)
  5.9% Others/Invalid

45.4% Turnout

There is also a rightwing majority in the Azores Parliament:

29 PSD+CDS+CHEGA+PPM+IL
28 PS+BE+PAN


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 06:01:32 PM
Very interesting (and messy) result. The obvious PS+CDS majority isn't there either. Surprised both PAN and IL managed to get a seat.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 06:03:09 PM
Very interesting (and messy) result. The obvious PS+CDS majority isn't there either. Surprised both PAN and IL managed to get a seat.

Maybe PPM can support the PS+CDS coalition, I don't know. But, yep, it's a very messy result and every options are on the table, even a PSD led government.

On the positive note, finally the Azores is more interesting than Madeira, politically at least. :D ;)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 06:10:59 PM
RTP pundits say the election results are an "earthquake".

Also, Rui Rio is speaking. Let's see what he says.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 06:20:00 PM
RTP pundits say the election results are an "earthquake".

Also, Rui Rio is speaking. Let's see what he says.

Rio is being very, very vague on a possible "rightwing" agreement. He said the left doesn't have a majority and the right yes, however the differences between the right parties are considerable and it's "complicated" and added that the decision is up to the PSD-Azores, even pressured by reporters to give a clear answer.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 06:47:09 PM
CDS are way too happy about their result for a party that lost a quarter of their seats


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 06:48:05 PM
The CDS-Azores leader said the party will decide their role with calm and serenity, adding the party is a responsible one.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 06:48:53 PM
CDS are way too happy about their result for a party that lost a quarter of their seats
Well, they survived. They're happy for just being alive.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 06:53:01 PM
CDS are way too happy about their result for a party that lost a quarter of their seats
Well, they survived. They're happy for just being alive.
Yeah, and 3rd place with 3 seats was realistically the best they could hope for. But still. :P


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: DavidB. on October 25, 2020, 06:54:36 PM
RTP pundits say the election results are an "earthquake".

Also, Rui Rio is speaking. Let's see what he says.

Rio is being very, very vague on a possible "rightwing" agreement. He said the left doesn't have a majority and the right yes, however the differences between the right parties are considerable and it's "complicated" and added that the decision is up to the PSD-Azores, even pressured by reporters to give a clear answer.
Why is this so complicated? Haven't been following Portuguese politics for way too long, but why can't PSD simply form a coalition with CDS and CHEGA (okay, don't know anything about the other two)?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 07:00:07 PM
RTP pundits say the election results are an "earthquake".

Also, Rui Rio is speaking. Let's see what he says.

Rio is being very, very vague on a possible "rightwing" agreement. He said the left doesn't have a majority and the right yes, however the differences between the right parties are considerable and it's "complicated" and added that the decision is up to the PSD-Azores, even pressured by reporters to give a clear answer.
Why is this so complicated? Haven't been following Portuguese politics for way too long, but why can't PSD simply form a coalition with CDS and CHEGA (okay, don't know anything about the other two)?
Because, like he said, it's complicated. The PSD knows that on his right everything is changing and is seeing how CHEGA is performing and they feel uncomfortable with their policies and manners. Rio himself said that he would only talk to CHEGA if they moderate their tone, if not, no talk. CDS is in danger because of CHEGA as it's stealing a lot of votes on the rightwing and making them weaker. So, they don't like CHEGA and see them as the "opponent". IL is a social liberal party that shocks with CHEGA on almost everything. So, the panorama is complicated.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: MaxQue on October 25, 2020, 07:00:35 PM
RTP pundits say the election results are an "earthquake".

Also, Rui Rio is speaking. Let's see what he says.

Rio is being very, very vague on a possible "rightwing" agreement. He said the left doesn't have a majority and the right yes, however the differences between the right parties are considerable and it's "complicated" and added that the decision is up to the PSD-Azores, even pressured by reporters to give a clear answer.
Why is this so complicated? Haven't been following Portuguese politics for way too long, but why can't PSD simply form a coalition with CDS and CHEGA (okay, don't know anything about the other two)?

CHEGA is PVV-like.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 07:02:08 PM
The PSD-Azores leader says he's open to talks with all parties and that everything is on the table.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 25, 2020, 07:04:19 PM
Very interesting (and messy) result. The obvious PS+CDS majority isn't there either. Surprised both PAN and IL managed to get a seat.

How is PS + CDS obvious lmao that sounds like a strange coupling?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 07:07:56 PM
Very interesting (and messy) result. The obvious PS+CDS majority isn't there either. Surprised both PAN and IL managed to get a seat.

How is PS + CDS obvious lmao that sounds like a strange coupling?
Because in the 70's and 80's, the PSD was the dominant party in the regions of Madeira and Azores, the PS and CDS forged occasional agreements to confront the PSD in elections, especially in local elections. And in the Azores, after the 1996 elections, the PSD+CDS had a majority but that idea was rejected, so the PS forged deals with CDS in order to govern.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 07:10:43 PM
Ventura is rejecting deals with PSD-Azores:


Quote
Ventura rejects agreements with the PSD in the Azores: "CHEGA doesn't govern with parties of the system"


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 25, 2020, 07:16:20 PM
"Não governamos com partidos do sistema" - especially coming from the right - sounds like politics 101 for signs that a party is pure trash.

Anyway interesting stuff with the PS/CDS coalitions in the Atlantic back in the day... I guess ideology matters less at a more local level.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2020, 07:21:06 PM
Ventura is rejecting deals with PSD-Azores:


Quote
Ventura rejects agreements with the PSD in the Azores: "CHEGA doesn't govern with parties of the system"

Such a hypocrite, he was a proud member of PSD only a few years ago.

So a PS minority government it is. Will be interesting to see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2020, 07:22:08 PM
"Não governamos com partidos do sistema" - especially coming from the right - sounds like politics 101 for signs that a party is pure trash.

Anyway interesting stuff with the PS/CDS coalitions in the Atlantic back in the day... I guess ideology matters less at a more local level.

No doubt about it. On the local level, it more about winning. About CHEGA, well, he has the presidential elections next January, making a deal with the PSD and accepting some PSD terms would make him lose much of his "platforms", if you want to call it like that, for the presidential campaign.

But, nothing is certain about Ventura.

Also a funny moment in Vasco Cordeiro speech: he said that he always believed that who wins an election, should govern. Then a reporter asked: So you don't agree with Costa? An uncomfortable pause occurred.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 26, 2020, 11:11:23 AM
The 2 indie MPs won't vote the budget down, which means it will pass the first reading.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 26, 2020, 02:56:56 PM
The 2 indie MPs won't vote the budget down, which means it will pass the first reading.

Yep, Joacine Katar Moreira and PAN dissident, Cristina Rodrigues will abstain and the budget will pass:


Quote
OE 2021: Budget for 2021 saved by non-inscrict MPs

Nonetheless, the budget will pass by the slimest margin since the infamous "limiano budgets" during Guterres 2nd term and that were the first sign of Guterres downfall. Is the same happening to Costa? One thing is certain, after 5 years as PM, yesterday was the first big defeat of Costa and the first "victory" of Rio.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 26, 2020, 03:47:32 PM
Azores elections: Observador newspaper says the PS is already thinking of snap elections.


Quote
Taken by surprise with results in the Azores, PS already thinks about early elections

A report from Observador newspaper says the PS is stunned by the election results, as their own polling was giving 48-52% to the PS. To the online newspaper, many PS members say the situation is "impossible" and that new elections may be the only way out.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 26, 2020, 04:20:45 PM
I don't know why but my gut feeling is telling me that immediate snap elections would be a disaster for PS.
Also, damn it, they should really change their pollster. 48-52%? Lmao


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 26, 2020, 05:21:05 PM
I don't know why but my gut feeling is telling me that immediate snap elections would be a disaster for PS.
Also, damn it, they should really change their pollster. 48-52%? Lmao

I don't even know if that's even possible because of the 6 month wainting period until dissolving assemblies. That's the rule for the national parliament, and I believe it's also the same for regional elections. If that's the case, there can only be a new election in May 2021. Until then, a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

And yeah, their pollster, whoever it is, has lost a client for sure.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 26, 2020, 06:26:18 PM
Azores regional election. Results by parish:

()

BE won the smallest parish in Portugal and in the Azores: Mosteiro, Flores island, 28 registered votes. Overall, the PS won 101 parishes, PSD 47, CDS 5, PPM 2 and BE 1.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 26, 2020, 06:55:59 PM
It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 26, 2020, 07:51:04 PM
It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320855981773983745

LMAO

I mean we already knew that Ventura and co. are full of sh**t but this is beyond hilarious... so much for rejeitamos acordos com o "sistema"

By the way I notice PPM won another parish outside of Corvo, is that normal?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Velasco on October 27, 2020, 07:12:49 AM
I missed completely the Azores election with the Chilean referendum and other affairs. My bad

What a strange result, let alone the PS underwhelming performance

I see that the PPM won a plurality in Corvo (in coalition with the CDS) and an additional seat in Flores. What's the reason for that upsurge?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2020, 03:01:22 PM
It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320855981773983745

LMAO

I mean we already knew that Ventura and co. are full of sh**t but this is beyond hilarious... so much for rejeitamos acordos com o "sistema"

By the way I notice PPM won another parish outside of Corvo, is that normal?
It seems that PSD wants CDS and PPM in the government, while CHEGA and IL don't want to go to government, but support a PSD minority only. But, their "retraction" is anything but surprising. The PS is also hoping if it can make a coalition with CDS and maybe PAN.

Flores island had the most insane swings in these elections. In 2016, CDU won the island and this time they only got 3.2% of the votes. The CDU MP didn't run for reelection and instead his sister ran. It didn't work out. That parish was won by PPM perhaps, IMO, of it's proximity to Corvo but PPM scored big numbers across the islands, mainly in Santa Maria.

I missed completely the Azores election with the Chilean referendum and other affairs. My bad

What a strange result, let alone the PS underwhelming performance

I see that the PPM won a plurality in Corvo (in coalition with the CDS) and an additional seat in Flores. What's the reason for that upsurge?
The PS result was feared by many as the long tenure of the PS became an issue. But, yes, the result was far worse than expected.

The PPM-Azores leader is from Corvo and since he ran for the regional parliament, he has been reelected ever since. The surge of PPM is mainly due to its campaign, I assume.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 27, 2020, 03:15:26 PM
It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320855981773983745

LMAO

I mean we already knew that Ventura and co. are full of sh**t but this is beyond hilarious... so much for rejeitamos acordos com o "sistema"

By the way I notice PPM won another parish outside of Corvo, is that normal?
It seems that PSD wants CDS and PPM in the government, while CHEGA and IL don't want to go to government, but support a PSD minority only. But, their "retraction" is anything but surprising. The PS is also hoping if it can make a coalition with CDS and maybe PAN.

Flores island had the most insane swings in these elections. In 2016, CDU won the island and this time they only got 3.2% of the votes. The CDU MP didn't run for reelection and instead his sister ran. It didn't work out. That parish was won by PPM perhaps, IMO, of it's proximity to Corvo but PPM scored big numbers across the islands, mainly in Santa Maria.

Lol this is another thing beyond hilarious. The magic of local politics. Also inb4 Flores is sexist.

Do you think that PS + CDS + PAN is the most likely government at the moment?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2020, 03:30:19 PM
It seems that CHEGA has retracted their initial position: (not surprising at all)

Rightwing parties willing to forge an agreement. All in the hands of the PSD.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1320855981773983745

LMAO

I mean we already knew that Ventura and co. are full of sh**t but this is beyond hilarious... so much for rejeitamos acordos com o "sistema"

By the way I notice PPM won another parish outside of Corvo, is that normal?
It seems that PSD wants CDS and PPM in the government, while CHEGA and IL don't want to go to government, but support a PSD minority only. But, their "retraction" is anything but surprising. The PS is also hoping if it can make a coalition with CDS and maybe PAN.

Flores island had the most insane swings in these elections. In 2016, CDU won the island and this time they only got 3.2% of the votes. The CDU MP didn't run for reelection and instead his sister ran. It didn't work out. That parish was won by PPM perhaps, IMO, of it's proximity to Corvo but PPM scored big numbers across the islands, mainly in Santa Maria.

Lol this is another thing beyond hilarious. The magic of local politics. Also inb4 Flores is sexist.

Do you think that PS + CDS + PAN is the most likely government at the moment?
I don't know if it was a personal decision by the CDU MP or a party decision. However, he was very popular but putting his sister on the ballot isn't the same thing. ;)

To be honest, I don't know what will happen. Either a PS or a PSD government are possible. The results were so surprising that prediction are a risky bet right now.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2020, 05:50:59 PM
2021 budget: Debate started today with PS and BE at each other's throats.


Quote
State Budget 2021: Government and BE bring tension to Parliament. Right predicts end of cycle

António Costa hammered totally BE's decision to vote against the 2021 budget. In the first day of debate of the 2021 budget, Costa said that the Left Bloc's decision was "selfish". He even compared the Bloc's decision with the infamous "irrevocable" resignation of Paulo Portas in 2013. However, he said there can still be common ground between both parties. BE, on the other hand, accused of "deserting" the NHS, by not investing more and accused the government of joining with the right in terms of labour laws. The media says Costa and the PS are painting BE as an irresponsible party and that the strategy is to discredit and try to win voters from BE.

On the right, the PSD accused Costa of bad fiscal forecasts, highlighting the warnings and forecast of the Public Finance council that say the government is overconfident about fiscal revenues. Rio also asked Costa about TAP airlines and the Novo Banco impacts in the budget. During the debate, there was a tense moment between PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, and André Ventura. As Jerónimo was starting to speak, Ventura started laughing in which Jerónimo replied: "Are you finding it funny? You are not funny at all". PS and PCP MPs applauded while PSD leader Rui Rio started laughing.

Adding to this, a poll released today by JN and TSF radio, conducted by Aximage, shows that a majority of voters say the budget should pass with the votes of BE and PCP. Even BE voters say the budget should have their party's support:  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/maioria-quer-esquerda-a-viabilizar-o-orcamento-e-governo-em-funcoes-12966439.html?utm_source=push&utm_medium=mas&utm_term=12966439)

Q1: Should the 2021 budget pass with the votes of BE and PCP?

60% Yes
14% No
27% Undecided

By party:

BE: 68% Yes; PS: 86% Yes; PSD: 64% Yes; CDU: 61%

Q2: Should the government resign if the budget fails?

67% No
17% Yes
16% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 and 26 October 2020. Polled 694 voters. MoE of 3.70%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 28, 2020, 03:20:32 PM
2021 budget: The budget passes the first vote by just 3 votes, as expected.


Quote
OE2021 approved in general with tHe abstention from the PCP, PAN, ENP and non-attached deputies

As expected, the 2021 budget passed the first test in the general vote. The PS was the sole party voting in favour, 108, with PSD, BE, CDS, CHEGA and IL voting against, 105. PCP, PEV, PAN and the two independent MPs abstained. The government said the budget had to pass as the country could not afford not having a budget at this crucial period and, after the vote, Costa said today's vote was a very important step in order to have a good budget for the NHS and fight the economic crisis.

PSD trashed, once again, the budget saying it looks like a vegan strogonoff, and it only pleases PCP and PAN, and the the economy is like Wally as no one can find any economic policy in the budget. BE continued to criticize the government's lack of funding in the NHS and others.

Also, Ventura wrote a letter to Rui Rio about a possible agreement in the Azores:


Quote
Azores. Ventura defines Chega's 'conditions' to negotiate with PSD.

André Ventura wrote a letter to PSD leader Rui Rio, citting his conditions for an agreement to form a PSD government in the Azores. Ventura says the PSD has to participate in the Constitutional revision, compromise in the reduction of 50% of people receiving of basic income support in the Azores and define a plan to fight corruption in the islands. Without these conditions, according to him, there's no talks.

But Rui Rio has already said any decisions regarding agreements in the Azores are a decision of PSD-Azores and who knows what will CHEGA-Azores do. Nothing is certain about CHEGA and anything is possible, and I have a hunch Rio will throw Ventura's letter to the garbage.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on October 28, 2020, 05:14:02 PM
As an Azorean it bothers me that Ventura seems to think this is a matter for the national leadership to settle.

PSD leader Bolieiro was in Terceira today to negotiate with CDS leader Artur Lima. It seems PS and PSD are both trying to get PAN on their side. If Chega decides to abstain it will be up to the 1 PAN MP to decide who will govern.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 28, 2020, 05:15:07 PM
2021 budget: The budget passes the first vote by just 3 votes, as expected.

Oh well. I am glad that this play has finally ended, and relatively well. I guess all eyes on the Azores now?

Quote
But Rui Rio has already said any decisions regarding agreements in the Azores are a decision of PSD-Azores and who knows what will CHEGA-Azores do. Nothing is certain about CHEGA and anything is possible, and I have a hunch Rio will throw Ventura's letter to the garbage.

As he should.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 28, 2020, 06:12:35 PM
As an Azorean it bothers me that Ventura seems to think this is a matter for the national leadership to settle.

PSD leader Bolieiro was in Terceira today to negotiate with CDS leader Artur Lima. It seems PS and PSD are both trying to get PAN on their side. If Chega decides to abstain it will be up to the 1 PAN MP to decide who will govern.

The PSD national leadership has already said it will not interfere in the Azores government negotiations. As for Ventura's demands, for God sake, the Constitution, currently, it's the least of our problems and I don't get the idea of reducing by half the basic income support as Azores has the highest rate of poverty in the whole country. Like I said above, he's inconsistent and I forgot already the number of letters he has written to Rui Rio.

I've read PSD wants CDS+PPM in the government and that the issue is who supports it. Let's see how this unfolds.

2021 budget: The budget passes the first vote by just 3 votes, as expected.

Oh well. I am glad that this play has finally ended, and relatively well. I guess all eyes on the Azores now?
This was the first vote. Now, for a month or so, Parliament will discuss policy by policy and parties can present changes to the budget and if they pass they are included in the budget. PCP said their vote could change if the final text is very different from the current one, however this option probably is unlikely as I don't see how can PCP retract their current position without being even more penalized, electorally that is.

It will be very interesting to see how the Azores situation evolves. A possible agreement on the right could be a "blueprint" for future national agreement, at the same time in the left there seems to be more and more issues.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 28, 2020, 06:23:18 PM
PSD leader Bolieiro was in Terceira today to negotiate with CDS leader Artur Lima. It seems PS and PSD are both trying to get PAN on their side. If Chega decides to abstain it will be up to the 1 PAN MP to decide who will govern.

More about that in this report from Observador:

Quote
PSD confident in rightwing government in the Azores. Written agreement may be key to convince Marcelo

Quote
José Manuel Bolieiro went to the home of Artur Lima, leader of the CDS, in Porto Martins, on Terceira Island to negotiate this Tuesday, Observador knows. On the same day Vasco Cordeiro entered the same house for the same purpose. The meetings have already started, the phone calls too and, at the first contacts, there is more and more confidence on the right that it will be possible to form a government that will remove the PS from power. And the right-wing “crab” already thinks about the next step: how to convince the representative of the Republic (and Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa) that the right-wing majority is the most stable solution. Observador knows that a written agreement to ensure a minimum of political stability is a strong hypothesis on the table and is being seriously studied by the PSD-Azores regional leader, José Manuel Bolieiro.

(...)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 30, 2020, 06:10:56 PM
Azores government formation: PSD, CDS and PPM are in a meeting since mid afternoon to define an agreement.


Quote
Regional elections: Azores: PSD, PPM and CDS gathered to realize the future of the rightwing front

Regional leaders of PSD, CDS and PPM are still in a meeting in the PSD regional headquarters, in Ponta Delgada, to define the final terms of an agreement between the 3 parties. At the beginning of the meeting, a preliminary agreement between the party was already agreed on and the meeting seems to be to finalize some issues. Now, in order for this agreement to pass, IL and CHEGA have to approve it. Expresso newspaper says, in this weekend's edition, that PSD and CHEGA are already negotiating some kind of parliamentary support.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on October 31, 2020, 09:16:16 AM
Covid-19 restrictions: Court rejects CHEGA's objection to the prohibition of circulating between municipalities during this weekend.


Quote
Politics - Supreme Court rejects Chega's precautionary measure against restrictions on movement between municipalities

The Supreme Administrative Court of Lisbon rejected, by a unanimous vote, CHEGA's objection to the prohibition of circulating between municipalities during this weekend as, according to the party, violated the Constitution. The Court also rejected another objection sent by another group not affiliated with any party. The Court said that there is legal background to forbid circulations between municipalities and that this doesn't violate any personal freedoms. André Ventura already reacted by accusing the Court of using legal formalisms to accept a huge violation of the Constitution by the government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 01, 2020, 06:59:39 AM
Aximage poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-intencao-de-voto-nas-legislativas-e-a-avaliacao-aos-lideres-politicos-12986303.html)

Vote share %:

35.5% PS (-2.1)
27.0% PSD (+3.1)
10.0% BE (+1.7)
  5.7% CDU (+0.1)
  5.4% CHEGA (-1.4)
  5.2% PAN (+0.4)
  3.2% IL (+0.6)
  1.2% CDS (+0.1) 
  6.4% Others/Invalid (+0.1)

Government approval:

45% Approve (-3)
30% Disapprove (-5)
19% Average (+5)
  6% Undecided (+2)

President of the Republic approval:

60% Approve (-4)
22% Disapprove (+1)
12% Average (-1)
  6% Undecided (+3)

Opposition approval:

38% Disapprove (-7)
27% Approve (-1)
25% Average (+3)
10% Undecided (+5)

Poll conducted between 22 and 26 October 2020. Polled 694 voters. MoE of 3.70%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 01, 2020, 11:30:31 AM
Update in the Azores regional government formation:

It seems almost certain that the PS will be booted out of the regional government. PSD, CDS and PPM have reached an agreement to form a rightwing coalition (https://www.publico.pt/2020/11/01/politica/noticia/-psd-ppm-cds-acordo-coligacao-direita-governar-acores-1937495), and now there are negotiations with CHEGA and PAN in order for PSD to have parliamentary support. IL refused any talks but will not vote in favour of a PS government. The PSD-CDS-PPM want also to forge a written agreement to be delivered during this week to the Representative of the Republic in the Azores.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 01, 2020, 05:49:45 PM
Aximage poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio on the 2021 Presidential elections:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/marcelo-esmagador-a-intencao-de-voto-para-as-presidenciais-12988129.html)

Vote share %:

62.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-2.3)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+4.2)
   7.6% André Ventura (+0.6)
   4.7% Marisa Matias (+0.7)
   1.6% João Ferreira (+0.6)
   1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (new)
  0.3% Tino de Rans (new)
   4.4% Others/Undecided (-3.7)

Poll conducted between 22 and 26 October 2020. Polled 694 voters. MoE of 3.70%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on November 01, 2020, 06:08:50 PM
Wow CDU really is a sinking ship


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 01, 2020, 06:34:20 PM

Yeah, things don't look good for CDU. I'm skeptical that their candidate will tie with IL's candidate, but it's very likely they will repeat their disastrous 2016 result. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 02, 2020, 03:23:44 PM
Tensions are starting to arise in CHEGA because of the Azores:


Quote
CHEGA Açores vice-president resigns and bulldozes Ventura for “centralist stance”

Tensions between the regional CHEGA and the national leadership are starting to arise. The deputy leader of CHEGA Azores, Orlando Lima, resigned from his post and left the party accusing Ventura of "centralist actions" and for not having any interest in the Azorean situation. He added that governing the Azores is to serve its people and not resolve spats between the "Lisbon elites" or to gain traction in national polls. He also says Ventura's list of demands to the PSD is ridiculous, adding that the region has more important and serious issues.

However, CHEGA Azores said they will indeed support the PSD-CDS-PPM minority in Parliament.  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/acores-chega-garante-apoio-parlamentar-a-solucao-governativa-de-psd-cds-e-ppm)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 02, 2020, 03:38:01 PM
Wtf I love Orlando Lima now?

CHEGA is such a joke. A bad joke.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 02, 2020, 03:48:43 PM
Wtf I love Orlando Lima now?

CHEGA is such a joke. A bad joke.

CHEGA, internally, may be the most WTF party in the Portuguese political system. It's a huge mess: former PSD/CDS members mixed with far-right groups mixed with conservative ideologues. And Ventura's actions, of acting like he "owns" CHEGA, which, to be fair, is the reality, makes some members in the party furious. Just look what happened in their party congress last September, or whatever. A mess. But, they are probably here to stay. And, after the PSD-CDS-PPM agreement success, of course they wouldn't say no to supporting a PSD minority. That would be the ultimate contradiction.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on November 02, 2020, 06:18:36 PM
This is totally unsurprising imo. Like many other right-wing populist parties Chega is a combination of commited right-wingers who want influence and anti-system arsonists who just to protest. Ventura has been sitting on the fence trying to please both sides but it's no longer possible once they're given an opportunity for some power.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 02, 2020, 06:24:05 PM
This is totally unsurprising imo. Like many other right-wing populist parties Chega is a combination of commited right-wingers who want influence and anti-system arsonists who just to protest. Ventura has been sitting on the fence trying to please both sides but it's no longer possible once they're given an opportunity for some power.
Indeed. However, his flip-flops on this are ludicrous. Even as we speak, he's "correcting" the CHEGA-Azores leaders by saying the party isn't supporting the PSD-CDS-PPM alliance. It seems he's trying to save his face.

IL is also not making any sense, right now. The PSD-CDS-PPM government is probable, but things are still shaky.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 02, 2020, 06:35:56 PM
At the same time, PM Costa asked President Marcelo to call a state of Emergency:


Quote
"Softer." President admits state of emergency "very different from the previous one"

PM Costa met today with President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and asked him to call a state of emergency. Only the PS and PSD, the main parties that control 81% of the seats in Parliament, are in favour. PSD leader Rui Rio has already endorsed the idea.

However, in an interview to RTP1, this evening, President Marcelo said the new state of emergency would be "softer" than the one in March, without a total lockdown in order to not kill the economy and avoid social problems.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 03, 2020, 10:00:08 AM
Will the State of Emergency include Madeira and the Azores, or only the mainland?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 03, 2020, 02:54:20 PM
Will the State of Emergency include Madeira and the Azores, or only the mainland?

I don't think it will include Madeira and Azores. I believe the State of Emergency is just for those 121 municipalities, that gather almost 70% of the population however, that the government defined as critical. Many municipalities in mainland Portugal will probably not have State of Emergency.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 03, 2020, 02:56:54 PM
Will the State of Emergency include Madeira and the Azores, or only the mainland?

I don't think it will include Madeira and Azores. I believe the State of Emergency is just for those 121 municipalities, that gather almost 70% of the population however, that the government defined as critical. Many municipalities in mainland Portugal will probably not have State of Emergency.

This is because major cities are hit worse than rural areas, I suppose?
And could Madeira and Azores declare State of Emergency for themselves autonomously if they needed to?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 03, 2020, 03:06:14 PM
Will the State of Emergency include Madeira and the Azores, or only the mainland?

I don't think it will include Madeira and Azores. I believe the State of Emergency is just for those 121 municipalities, that gather almost 70% of the population however, that the government defined as critical. Many municipalities in mainland Portugal will probably not have State of Emergency.

This is because major cities are hit worse than rural areas, I suppose?
And could Madeira and Azores declare State of Emergency for themselves autonomously if they needed to?

Exactly, the most populated regions, the North and Lisbon, are having huge spikes, especially the North. The map is this:


About Azores and Madeira I don't think they have autonomy to do that. The State of Emergency is the highest level of danger and only the President of the Republic can call it, although it always needs the approval of Parliament. Because it's call by the President, I believe Azores and Madeira are bound to follow it.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 04, 2020, 06:07:30 PM
Azores regional government formation: Rio didn't budge to Ventura so he will not support a PSD minority, it seems.


Quote
Azores. Rio doesn't give in and Ventura orders to struck down the right-wing 'contraption'

The negotiations between PSD-Azores and CHEGA continue, but they could have a fatal blow was Ventura is fed up with the no responses from Rio and has decided, it seems, to order CHEGA-Azores to reject a PSD-CDS-PPM minority coalition. Expresso newspaper reports that Rio's silence is seen, by Ventura, as a "no". Ventura had set a series of conditions to reach an agreement and it seems that Rio didn't bother to respond and swipe it left.

Now, the situation is now back to square one. The representative of the Republic in the Azores will start to hear parties, starting tomorrow, and they ask either Vasco Cordeiro and José Manuel Bolieiro to form a government. Early elections are also possible, but only next year, maybe in late April/early May.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on November 04, 2020, 07:09:27 PM
Bolieiro should try to convince the 2 Chega MPs to rebel against Ventura tbh


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 04, 2020, 07:14:28 PM
Bolieiro should try to convince the 2 Chega MPs to rebel against Ventura tbh

I wouldn't be surprised by that. It's plausible due to the recent tensions within CHEGA-Azores.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 05, 2020, 06:36:31 AM
Centre-right government in the Azores failing because Ventura (going against the will of CHEGA-Azores) needed to own Rui Rio? Lmao

How do you say "flip-flopper" in Portuguese?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 05, 2020, 09:48:04 AM
Populist right already imploding, you love to see it ;)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 05, 2020, 02:54:24 PM
Centre-right government in the Azores failing because Ventura (going against the will of CHEGA-Azores) needed to own Rui Rio? Lmao

How do you say "flip-flopper" in Portuguese?


There's many ways: "troca tintas", "trapalhão", "aldrabão". But the real translation of "flip-flopper" is "troca tintas".

If the Azores doesn't have a PSD minority, it's completely Ventura's fault. Rio, like I predicted in previous post, rolled his eyes on everything Ventura said. Now, Ventura announced that negotiations are suspended between the PSD and CHEGA, almost ordering CHEGA-Azores to do what he wants, and it seems CHEGA-Azores is saying yes, but the mood isn't good, it seems.

If the PSD-CDS-PPM minority fails, the PS will govern but early elections, next year, would be almost certain.

Populist right already imploding, you love to see it ;)
I don't know if they will implode, their supporters are cult like, like Trump, but they will lose a power argument that they always had: defeat the PS at any cost. Now, anytime they call out the PSD, the PSD can also said where were you in the Azores?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 06, 2020, 06:01:21 AM
The CHEGA mess in the Azores in just... wow.

The media is reporting a series of stories that show a deep divide within the party. Público newspaper is reporting that Ventura decided to struck down the AD coalition without informing the regional party and its members of the regional parliament. This is infuriating many CHEGA-Azores leaders as, according to the newspaper, negotiations with the PSD were on track to be a success:


Quote
Ventura said no to AD-Açores, but didn't inform CHEGA MPs in the region

Diário de Notícias newspaper is also reporting that at least one CHEGA MP is so pissed off by Ventura that he's willing to support the AD (PSD-CDS-PPM) without the consent of Ventura:


Quote
Azores. PSD has 24 hours to get support from IL and PAN. CHEGA divided

According to the newspaper, Carlos Furtado, leader of CHEGA-Azores and one of the elected MPs, is against Ventura's medling in the negotiations and Ventura has already warned him that if doesn't obey his order he could be expelled from the party. The PSD seems to be banking on this divide withing CHEGA and is calculating that if the CHEGA MP becomes an independent MP, they have a majority with the votes of PAN and IL.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 06, 2020, 07:33:10 AM
JUST IN: Público newspaper is reporting that PSD and CHEGA reached an agreement after CHEGA dropped several of their demands:


Quote
Azores: CHEGA and PSD reach a deal in the Azores: they will reduce regional deputies and social support

Público newspaper is reporting that the regional PSD and CHEGA have reach a deal for a support of CHEGA in the AD proposed government. According to the newspaper, CHEGA dropped all of their more controversial proposals, life prison sentences and chemical castration and agreed with the PSD the reduction of the size of the regional parties and a cut in social supports in the Azores. More details are expected during the day.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 06, 2020, 11:48:44 AM
Other news that dominated the week:

The DA office is investigating the minister of the economy, Pedro Siza Vieira, and the energy secretary, João Galamba, for alleged corrupt actions in the hydrogen deal:


Quote
Minister Pedro Siza Vieira and Secretary of State João Galamba investigated for corruption

The DA office has confirmed the report, by Sábado magazine, that the minister of the economy, Pedro Siza Vieira, and energy secretary, João Galamba, are being investigated due to alleged acts of corruption surrounding the hydrogen national plan. Reports say the DA office is investigating suspected favors to big companies at the expense of taxpayers money. The minister and the secretary already reacted with the investigation saying they are shocked by it, with the energy secretary João Galamba considering legal actions against those who accuse him of illegal and corrupt actions. PM Costa, in an interview to Antena 1 radio, already defended his cabinet members saying both are not suspect.

Also, the State of Emergency is being debated, this afternoon, in Parliament. President Marcelo call a state of emergency, yesterday, to start next Monday until 23 November. Parliament will now vote the proposal and it will pass easily as it has the support of PS and PSD (81% of seats in the chamber). BE will abstain.


Quote
Parliament debates new state of emergency. Follow live


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 06, 2020, 01:04:29 PM
New State of Emergency approved by Parliament:

In favour (PS, PSD, CDS)
Against (CDU, IL, JKM)
Abstain (BE, PAN, CHEGA)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 07, 2020, 07:09:42 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:  (https://observador.pt/2020/11/07/covid-19-portugueses-divididos-quanto-a-obrigacao-do-uso-de-mascara-na-rua-eurosondagem/)

Vote share %:

38.3% PS (-0.5)
29.7% PSD (+0.7)
  8.3% BE (+0.2)
  5.8% CDU (+0.3)
  5.0% CHEGA (+0.2)
  2.7% CDS (-0.6) 
  2.2% PAN (+0.2)
  1.0% IL (-0.3)
  7.0% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Other questions polled:

Q1: Do you agree with mandatory masks on the streets?

48% Yes
45% No
  7% Undecided

Q2: Would you vote in a possible referendum on euthanasia?

55% No
25% Yes
20% Undecided

Q3: Should the 2021 budget be approved by Parliament?

58.5% Yes
21.0% No
20.5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 2 and 5 November 2020. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.08%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 07, 2020, 07:52:27 AM
Speaking of the euthanasia question, referenda in Portugal have a 50% quorum, right?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 07, 2020, 08:02:40 AM
Azores government formation: Critical day today as PS and PSD are meeting with the representative of the Republic in the Azores in order to nominate a candidate for President of the government.

PS and PSD are meeting today with the representative of the republic in the Azores in order for him to nominate a candidate for the Presidency of the regional government. PSD leader José Manuel Bolieiro has the support of all rightwing parties and could probably be nominated even today. The smaller parties were received, yesterday, by the representative and only BE said they would support a PS government and all others said they were open to support the PSD-CDS-PPM coalition.

But, the backlash of this agreement is creating tensions between the national PS and PSD:


Quote
Azores. Rio "sold his dignity" on the constitutional review - accuses the PS

The PS is accusing the PSD and Rio of "selling their soul and dignity" in order to have the support of CHEGA and dump the PS in the Azores. In a press conference, the deputy secretary-general of the PS, José Luís Carneiro, asked what values Rio dropped to get CHEGA's support and the Rio and the PSD owe the people an explanation for this agreement.

Rio responded, on social media, to the PS accusations and basically called the PS a bunch of liars:


Quote
Among blunders or lies I counted 19 (some repeated), which gives 3.1 per minute of intervention.
Three broken records: that of blunders per minute; that of the greatest political impudence after GERINGONÇA / 2015; and that of “family-o-island” despair.
Worse yet, the PS knows it is lying.

Rio accuses the PS of complete desperation for being on the verge of losing the government of the Azores and says they are lying and spinning. He accused the PS of acting like they own the islands and that the PS is forgeting what they did in 2015 with the Geringonça agreement.

Speaking of the euthanasia question, referenda in Portugal have a 50% quorum, right?
Yes, and it was never reached in the 3 referendums since 1974.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 07, 2020, 08:59:13 AM
2021 Presidential elections: PS will discuss today the elections with the likeliest outcome being the PS not supporting anyone.


Quote
PS. Costa's carte blanche to vote Marcelo releases support for Ana Gomes

The PS leadership will met today to discuss the 2021 January Presidential elections. This meeting has been delayed several times as the PS is divided about what to do regarding the elections. However, it's expected that in the meeting Costa will give freedom of vote to all PS members and voters, like what happened in 2016. Some PS MPs and members have expressed support for several candidates including Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Ana Gomes or João Ferreira.

The election date is still to be announced but the unanimous date is January 24th 2021.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: crals on November 07, 2020, 11:57:18 AM
The left is too outraged over Chega's self-cucking tbh. They won't even be in government, their Azorean MPs aren't controversial like Ventura, the ridiculous criminal proposals are off the table, reducing the parliament's size would require PS support anyway and cutting GMI in half is also unlikely to actually happen. There's really nothing too extreme going on.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 07, 2020, 12:02:58 PM
The left is too outraged over Chega's self-cucking tbh. They won't even be in government, their Azorean MPs aren't controversial like Ventura, the ridiculous criminal proposals are off the table, reducing the parliament's size would require PS support anyway and cutting GMI in half is also unlikely to actually happen. There's really nothing too extreme going on.

Exactly. The PSD literally used the PS playbook of 2015: make meaningless and vague concessions that you probably don't intend to follow, in order to gain the support of whom you need.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 07, 2020, 02:40:42 PM
Azores government formation: Representative of the Republic asks PSD leader José Manuel Bolieiro to form a government.


Quote
Pedro Catarino appointed José Manuel Bolieiro to form a government in the Azores

It's now official. The Representative of the Republic in the Azores, Pedro Catarino, after hearing all parties has decided to appoint José Manuel Bolieiro as President of the Government and asked him to form a government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 07, 2020, 03:08:45 PM
Speaking of the euthanasia question, referenda in Portugal have a 50% quorum, right?
Yes, and it was never reached in the 3 referendums since 1974.

I know that two of them were about abortion, what was the third one about?



Anyways, congratulations to José Manuel Bolieiro for being the new President of the Azores. And yet again lol at Chega. An actual source of hilarity tbh.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Azores regional election: 25 Oct 2020)
Post by: Mike88 on November 07, 2020, 03:17:00 PM
Speaking of the euthanasia question, referenda in Portugal have a 50% quorum, right?
Yes, and it was never reached in the 3 referendums since 1974.

I know that two of them were about abortion, what was the third one about?



Anyways, congratulations to José Manuel Bolieiro for being the new President of the Azores. And yet again lol at Chega. An actual source of hilarity tbh.

It was the November 1998 referendum on Regionalization. The referendum was a failure as 64% voted against the implementation of regional governments in mainland Portugal and also voted against the map proposed by the then Guterres government. Only 48% of voters turned out to vote, although it was the highest share for a referendum but bellow the 50% quorum. A curiosity on the referendum: the PSD leader at that time was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and he led the campaign against regionalization.

The flip-flops of CHEGA, well, are always sad and funny at the same time. There's a curious thing with José Manuel Bolieiro's nomination as President: all major government leaders in Portugal were mayors in the past: Costa was mayor of Lisbon (2007-2015); Bolieiro was mayor of Ponta Delgada (2012-2020); Albuquerque, Madeira President, was mayor of Funchal (1994-2013).


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 08, 2020, 07:50:48 AM
2021 Presidential Elections: Costa announces, as expected, that the PS will not support any candidate:

The PS leadership decided to not support, like in 2016, no candidate in the 2021 January Presidential elections. In the meeting there was a discussion on what the party should have done, or do, about the elections and it was clear the divide between the moderates and the more leftwing blocs within the party. The old guard like, foreign minister Santos Silva, Vieira da Silva and Edite Estrela announced their support for Marcelo, while the more younger generation, led by Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos, announced their support for Ana Gomes.

After the meeting, Costa spoke to reporters and talked also about the Azores government resolution:


Quote
Azores: Costa accuses PSD of passing “red line” when making deal with CHEGA to the Azores

Costa accused Rio of forging a deal with the "racist and xenophobic" CHEGA party, according to him, and that Mr Rio owes an explanation the people. A similar charge was made the PS yesterday and Costa pressed once again. Rio responded, on twitter, accusing the PS of lying over and over:


Quote
The truth: Merkel refused Afd in regional governments, just like Chega will not go to the Government of the Azores.
The Spanish PP has parliamentary understandings with Vox in three autonomous regions: Madrid, Andalusia and Murcia.

The PS continues to lie. Everything is going wrong for them.

Also, with the Azores elections over, the title will add the next big election: the January 24 Presidential elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 08, 2020, 11:41:41 AM
Azores government formation: Vasco Cordeiro, PS leader, calls Bolieiro nomination "abusive" and says that there was too much Lisbon and less Azores in the talks.


Quote
Vasco Cordeiro complains about "too much Lisbon less and Azores"

Vasco Cordeiro, PS-Azores leader and still President of the Azores, reacted, this morning, to the appointment of PSD leader José Manuel Bolieiro as President. He said the talks between PSD and CHEGA had "too much Lisbon and less Azores", meaning the negotiations had a more national intention a than regional one and also criticized the Representative of the Republic for appointing José Manuel Bolieiro, calling the action "abusive" and that it's a clear trample of the powers of the regional assembly.

I know it's still very early, but it seems the PS is following the PSD playbook after the 2015 elections. We all know how that ended for the PSD...


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 09, 2020, 01:09:27 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Update in the number of candidates.

Some additional Independent candidates have announced their intention of running for the January 2021 elections and are already collecting signatures. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is expected to announce his candidacy for another term during the present month of November. So far, 12 candidates have stated their intention to run:

- Ana Gomes, former PS MEP
- André Ventura, CHEGA leader
- Bruno Fialho, PDR leader
- Carla Bastos, PS member
- Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira, PPM leader
- João Ferreira, CDU MEP
- Marisa Matias, BE MEP
- Orlando Cruz, former CDS member
- Paulo Alves, former JPP candidate in Felgueiras city
- Patinha Antão, Independent
- Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, IL candidate
- Vitorino Silva "Tino de Rans", RIR leader

Some of the candidacies, especially the smaller ones, may not enter the ballot due to lack of signatures like it has happened in the past.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 10, 2020, 02:14:41 PM
The fallout of the PSD-CHEGA agreement in the Azores continues:


Quote
Far-right: Rio under fire after the legislature agreement with Chega in the Azores

The PSD-CHEGA parliamentary agreement in the Azores is very much still dominating the headlines, alongside the Covid-19 pandemic. Many pundits are saying this could be bad for the PSD as others say this is a rehearsal of what could happen in the national parliament, who knows, in the next general elections. PM António Costa is criticizing Rio for allowing a deal with CHEGA accusing the PSD of "selling their values" for power. Rio continues to say the PS is desperate and the deal is only for the between the PSD and CHEGA Azores.

However, the deal between PSD and CHEGA was published by Público newspaper:

Quote
Azores: Chega's support to the Azores government is to last the entire legislature

The deal between the PSD and CHEGA implies that CHEGA has to support the PSD in every budget and struck down motions of no confidence against the PSD. The newspaper says the talks between PSD and CHEGA were very tense but that at the end, CHEGA accepted the PSD terms. The newspaper also says the CHEGA confirms that the PSD could propose, during this parliament, amendments to the Constitution like reducing the number of MPs and reform of the Justice system. This last item is what is creating many criticisms towards Rio, although, the PSD has already, in the past, defended both proposals.

The issue is already entering in the campaign for the Presidential elections with BE candidate, Marisa Matias, asking where is Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa on all of this and saying that if he accepted the terms of the agreement, then he's not protecting the Constitution.

Vital Moreira, former PS MEP and a highly regarded Constitutionalist, says, in his blog, the PSD agreement with the parties on his right is very similar with what the PS did in 2015 (https://causa-nossa.blogspot.com/2020/11/praca-da-republica-40-ha-coisas-que-nao.html), adding that the PSD didn't wast time or scruples, like the PS, to forge agreements with the right-wing parties. He adds that the right in Portugal continues to show a high capacity to adapt and unite to gain power, while the left continues to have struggles in forging agreements which condemns the PS to minorities governments over and over again.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 11, 2020, 06:45:59 AM
Local by-election to be held on December 13th in Ervededo parish, Chaves, Vila Real district.  (http://www.cne.pt/content/af-ervededo-chavesvila-real)

A local by-election was called in the parish of Ervededo, Chaves municipality, Vila Real district. The parish has 901 registered voters, although the parish only has 646 residents. The election was called after PSD and PS elected officials resigned and no reason was given for their resignation. Only 2 lists were presented for the elections:

PS - Socialist Party
PSD - Social Democratic Party

The parish has a history of voting in the PSD, but in recent years the margins between the PSD and PS have tightened a lot: in the 2017 local elections, the PSD won by a 49% to 47% over the PS, and in the 2019 general election, the PSD won by just a 4% margin, 41% to 37%. It could be close and it could also be a pick up for the PS. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 11, 2020, 09:02:55 AM
The parish has a history of voting in the PSD, but in recent years the margins between the PSD and PS have tightened a lot: in the 2017 local elections, the PSD won by a 49% to 47% over the PS, and in the 2019 general election, the PSD won by just a 4% margin, 41% to 37%. It could be close and it could also be a pick up for the PS. We'll see.

#TRENDS

Although somehow I doubt that this is an upscale suburb lol.
I see that Chaves is at the border, does the Ervededo parish directly border Spain?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 11, 2020, 09:44:44 AM
The parish has a history of voting in the PSD, but in recent years the margins between the PSD and PS have tightened a lot: in the 2017 local elections, the PSD won by a 49% to 47% over the PS, and in the 2019 general election, the PSD won by just a 4% margin, 41% to 37%. It could be close and it could also be a pick up for the PS. We'll see.

#TRENDS

Although somehow I doubt that this is an upscale suburb lol.
I see that Chaves is at the border, does the Ervededo parish directly border Spain?

Chaves having suburbs is already very doubtful ;). Yes, the parish directly borders with Spain.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 11, 2020, 01:59:09 PM
Government calls for a day of national mourning after the passing of PPM founder and renowned architect Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles:


Quote
Death of Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles. Costa highlights "huge debt of gratitude" and "priceless loss"

Former minister, architect and PPM founder, Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles, died today, in Lisbon, at the age of 98. Mr. Telles was a strong opponent to the Salazar regime and, as a landscape architect, was a strong advocate of urban planning and green development. After the 1974 revolution, Mr Telles founded the PPM, party he led until 1984. He took part in many governments after the revolution and was environment secretary during Mário Soares 1st cabinet (1976-1978). In 1979, he joined the successful Democratic Alliance (AD) alongside PSD and CDS. After the AD victory in 1979, he became minister of quality of life and he persued several policies towards land organization, forest development and creation of ecological reserves. In 1983, he ran for Lisbon mayor and was elected as a councillor where he developed several policies to expand green spaces and corridors in the city of Lisbon. In 1993, he founded the MPT-Earth Party, which he led until 2007.

All party leaders are paying their respects: PM and PS leader António Costa said that the country has a huge debt of gratitude towards him and announce a day of national mourning; PSD leader Rui Rio says he's sad and shocked by the news and that he was a pioneer in ecology in Portugal; President Marcelo also paid his respects saying Mr Telles was a fighter for freedoms and democracy.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Red Velvet on November 11, 2020, 07:36:17 PM
It’s scary to see Portugal walking the first steps into extremism and fascism, represented in this case by the Chega party. Either the Portuguese people recognize the danger they face in an early stage or soon they will be just like Brazil and the US.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 11, 2020, 07:41:41 PM
Azores government formation: The transition of power started today with a meeting with incumbent President Vasco Cordeiro and President to be José Manuel Bolieiro.


Quote
Vasco Cordeiro received José Manuel Bolieiro to define the transition of governments with normality.

Incumbent Azores President Vasco Cordeiro met today with President to be José Manuel Bolieiro to talk about the transition of power in the Azores. Mr Cordeiro invited Mr Bolieiro for a meeting to talk about dossiers like the Covid-19 pandemic, and other issues. After the meeting, both men held a joint press conference where they responded to reporters questions. Mr Cordeiro said he would do everything for the transition to go "with normality" and announced he asked all government department to elaborate transition dossiers. Mr Cordeiro was also forced to answer questions about a controversial report that revealed the the Azores government opened job hiring for more than 100 public employees just after the October 25th elections. Mr Cordeiro said the job applications were done "within the law" and that they are not "political jobs" (https://jornalacores9.pt/vasco-cordeiro-diz-que-concursos-de-emprego-nos-acores-centram-se-na-saude-e-educacao/), adding that the new PSD administration can deal with the issue as they wish.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 11, 2020, 08:03:58 PM
It’s scary to see Portugal walking the first steps into extremism and fascism, represented in this case by the Chega party. Either the Portuguese people recognize the danger they face in an early stage or soon they will be just like Brazil and the US.

That's a bit exaggerated, IMO. CHEGA, yes, is a radical right-wing party, but they are a hot mess, literally, with deep divisions. André Ventura cannot be called, IMO, a radical but rather a big opportunist as it is clear that he doesn't believe what he preaches. CHEGA leadership is overwhelmingly former PSD and CDS members who left both parties as they believed both were drifting to the left. Ventura himself was a normal PSD member, who in the past supported abortion, gay marriage and migrants to resolve the demographic problem. He even labeled Trump and Le Pen as basically crazy. Everything changed after the 2017 local elections, when he was abandoned by his party, due to the gypsy comments, but his strong showing in the elections made him realised there was space in the Portuguese political system for a party more to the right.

Now, Ventura, like I said above, is a very opportunist politician, doesn't believe in anything that he says and only says it because it gains votes. The problem for him is that his party has problems with far-right groups that are already infiltrating CHEGA, and that creates problems for him time after time. Now, I don't like Ventura because of the reasons I posted above, plus, his campaign against corruption is another big opportunistic move as his defence of Benfica's actions is proof.

Sooner or later, CHEGA would try to forge something with the PSD and the opportunity arrived in the Azores. CHEGA indeed drooped a lot of their ludicrous flags just to please the PSD, and the PSD, after the CDS colapse last year, realized the only way to get back to power was through CHEGA, but they needed to prepair the ground for it, and Rio, in the last couple of months, has been saying "if CHEGA moderates its tone, we can talk". CHEGA is now part of government solutions in Portugal and it will be interesting to see the path they will take in the future, but the first signs suggest they are willing to drop almost everything controversial just to get into power, or being close to power.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 12, 2020, 09:45:44 AM
It’s scary to see Portugal walking the first steps into extremism and fascism, represented in this case by the Chega party. Either the Portuguese people recognize the danger they face in an early stage or soon they will be just like Brazil and the US.

Eternal vigilance against complacency is both right and proper, but this seems slightly OTT.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 13, 2020, 07:01:44 AM
2021 Budget: As the final vote draws closer, tense negotiations between the government and PCP/BE continue.


Quote
State Budget 2021: Government prepares proposals to ensure that PCP approves Budget

Negotiations between the government and PCP/BE continue as the final budget vote date draws closer and closer. BE and the government seem to be in a deadlock and the BE vote against the budget in the 1st vote, is likely to be repeated in the final budget vote. According to BE, the government didn't respond to their 12 demands and the party says talks between both sides are currently non existent. With the PCP, things are different. The government is preparing policies in order to get the PCP final "ok" to the budget. Costa is preparing several policies like increase spending on the NHS, more subsidies to people at risk and 100% pay wages for workers in temporary lay-off. However, PCP seems a bit wary about these policies with PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa, saying the government needs to give in more or the PCP votes against.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-11-13-Jeronimo-aumenta-a-pressao-Orcamento-tem-muita-ausencia-de-respostas.-Sem-cedencias-PCP-pode-votar-contra)

The Azores government agreement between all rightwing parties continues also to make some headlines.


Quote
Marcelo agreed to a solution for the Azores.

Expresso newspaper is reporting today a series of stories of what really happened behind the scenes in the last to weeks. President Marcelo approved the solution and instructed his representative in the Azores to approve the rightwing agreement as no other solution was possible. According to the newspaper, Marcelo refused any talks about early elections and considers that demonizing CHEGA is a huge political mistake. On the PSD side, Expresso newspaper also says that a secret talk between Rio and Ventura occurred in order for CHEGA to drop several of their policies and approve the AD coalition in the Azores. Also, according to the newspaper, the PSD caucus leader also forced Ventura to change CHEGA's press release as the PSD didn't liked the content of the text. CHEGA accepted the PSD revised press release.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 14, 2020, 07:41:34 AM
Azores government formation: PSD reveals the deals it made with CDS, PPM, CHEGA and IL.


Quote
PSD / Azores Regional Council makes public the governance and parliamentary incidence agreements

The PSD-Azores has made public all of the deal they made with the rightwing parties, CDS, PPM, CHEGA and IL. The PSD-CDS-PPM alliance, the so called AD, is a 2 term agreement and the 3 parties will run in a coalition in the next regional elections, schedule for 2024. Coalitions for the 2021 local elections between the 3 parties are also predicted. The 3 parties agreed to persue several policies on many issues like on health, the creation of the "Health voucher" to fight wainting lists by creating partnerships with private hospitals to make surgeries and other health services and on infrastructures, the reconstruction of the Flores harbour, destroyed in 2019 by hurricane Lorenzo. With IL, PSD agreed to cut taxes, rationalize the public business sector and reduce its size. Both parties also agreed to reform the energy sector by making audits to the regional energy department and focus on renewable energies.

The deal between the AD parties and CHEGA ensures the reduction of public subsidies, also agreed with IL, reduction of members of the regional parliament and fighting corruption. Parties also signed a pledge to respect "the dignity and value of the human person" as it's written in the Constitution and in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

The new AD (PSD-CDS-PPM) government in the Azores is expected to be sworn in next week.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 14, 2020, 08:40:01 AM
Let us all stop for a second to observe the magic moment when CHEGA signs a pledge to respect the dignity and the value of the human person.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 14, 2020, 08:53:09 AM
Let us all stop for a second to observe the magic moment when CHEGA signs a pledge to respect the dignity and the value of the human person.
All for power, nothing against power.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 14, 2020, 10:38:45 AM
Let us all stop for a second to observe the magic moment when CHEGA signs a pledge to respect the dignity and the value of the human person.

I'm sure they will get round that somehow :D


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 15, 2020, 09:50:21 AM
Let us all stop for a second to observe the magic moment when CHEGA signs a pledge to respect the dignity and the value of the human person.

I'm sure they will get round that somehow :D

Then get a look at this:

Ventura defends gay marriage and abortion and criticizes Salazar:


Quote
CHEGA: André Ventura defends gay marriage and criticizes Salazar: “He delayed us a lot”

In an interview to Lusa news agency, CHEGA leader André Ventura said he supports gay marriage and wouldn't have any problem in having a gay son. He also said he supports the decriminalization of abortion. His party platform is clearly anti abortion and anti gay marriage, but Ventura says he doesn't agree with his party platform. He also was critical of former dictator António de Oliveira Salazar, saying he wasn't good for the country as he delayed the development of the country adding he rejects any links towards the old regime as Salazar is just an old ghost of the past and Portugal needs to put it aside.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 15, 2020, 07:07:49 PM
In an interview to Lusa news agency, CHEGA leader André Ventura said he supports gay marriage and wouldn't have any problem in having a gay son. He also said he supports the decriminalization of abortion. His party platform is clearly anti abortion and anti gay marriage, but Ventura says he doesn't agree with his party platform. He also was critical of former dictator António de Oliveira Salazar, saying he wasn't good for the country as he delayed the development of the country adding he rejects any links towards the old regime as Salazar is just an old ghost of the past and Portugal needs to put it aside.

> CHEGA literally all revolves around him (or so Ventura would like)

> "Well yeah I don't agree with my party's platform, actually"


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 15, 2020, 07:12:15 PM
In an interview to Lusa news agency, CHEGA leader André Ventura said he supports gay marriage and wouldn't have any problem in having a gay son. He also said he supports the decriminalization of abortion. His party platform is clearly anti abortion and anti gay marriage, but Ventura says he doesn't agree with his party platform. He also was critical of former dictator António de Oliveira Salazar, saying he wasn't good for the country as he delayed the development of the country adding he rejects any links towards the old regime as Salazar is just an old ghost of the past and Portugal needs to put it aside.

> CHEGA literally all revolves around him (or so Ventura would like)

> "Well yeah I don't agree with my party's platform, actually"
The funny thing is that he released a statement, early this evening, saying he didn't say what he said, regarding gay marriage, although he didn't explained what he really supports. Nothing surprising if you know Ventura.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 16, 2020, 08:11:56 AM
So what odds on a "real CHEGA" splitting away soon?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 16, 2020, 09:16:32 AM
So what odds on a "real CHEGA" splitting away soon?
It's a possibility, no doubt, but I don't see it in the near future. Not until the next general elections. What could happen is that many far-right groups, that are within CHEGA, could start to leave the party as the party starts to become more and more as part of the "system" and go to fringe groups on the right that are collecting signatures to become official parties. But a full blown split in unlikely as Ventura still controls with a steady hand the party as a whole. The result he will get in the January Presidential election will also be crucial for the party.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 16, 2020, 02:12:47 PM
Azores: New regional parliament was sworn in today. New Speaker is also from the PSD.


Quote
The swearing in of the Legislative Assembly of the Azores is scheduled for today

The 57 new MPs of the Azores regional parliament were sworn in today in Horta city, Faial island. After the swearing in ceremony, parties voted on the leadership of the regional parliament. The PSD chose MP Luís Garcia as candidate for speaker, while the PS chose MP Bárbara Chaves as candidate. The PSD candidate won the vote by a 29 to 28 margin, with the PSD candidate getting the votes of all rightwing parties, and the PS candidate getting the votes of all leftwing parties.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 17, 2020, 04:00:33 PM
2021 Presidential elections: President expected to call the election date next week.


Quote
President of the Republic to schedule presidential elections for January 24

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is receiving parties to discuss the extention of the current State of Emergency due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2021 budget and the January 2021 elections. Parties received today, IL, CHEGA, PEV and PAN, told the press that the President will call the election next week for January 24, as it widely expected. They also announced that the President is deciding in favour of extending the current state of emergency but with different categories. According to the parties, the government wants to create a 3 tier system of municipalities according to number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants. A similar system is already in use as municipalities with cases above 240 per 100,000 inhabitants have a series of restrictions, like weekend curfews, but in the extention of the state of emergency, only municipalities with more than 960 cases per 100,000 inhabitants would maintain the current and possibly harder restrictions.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-11-17-PEV-diz-que-Governo-quer-dividir-concelhos-em-tres-niveis-de-risco--e-manter-restricoes-ao-fim-de-semana-no-mais-grave-)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 18, 2020, 11:16:46 AM
Some political updates:

Minister of internal affairs accused of lying because of the date of an inquiry regarding the murder of an Ukrainian immigrant by border patrol agents in Lisbon airport:


Quote
Ihor Homeniuk's death. PSD and BE want political consequences if minister lied in Parliament

The minister of internal affairs, Eduardo Cabrita, is being accused by PSD and BE of lying in Parliament because of the inquiry surrounding the murder of Ihor Homeniuk, an Ukrainian immigrant, by border patrol agents in Lisbon airport. On March 10 this year, Ihor Homeniuk arrived in Lisbon airport with no documents and was arrested, but fell ill and had to be rushed to hospitals. In the next day, he was sent to a detain center in Lisbon airport but there he was beaten up by border patrol agents and died shortly after. The SEF, the border control agency, opened an inquiry on March 30 and the agents were accused of murder and torture. However, the dates of the inquiry are creating controversy. Eduardo Cabrita told Parliament an inquiry was opened on March 13, when, according to the SEF, the official inquiry only started on March 30. Opposition parties accuse the minister of lying to parliament and also demand reforms in the SEF as reports of bad management and abuse of power are increasing. The media reported, last week, that there's a lot of pressure for the SEF director to resign and that the minister was planning a "luxury exit" for the incumbent SEF director (https://www.dn.pt/edicao-do-dia/05-nov-2020/sef-sob-pressao-ministro-prepara-saida-de-luxo-para-diretora-nacional-12994160.html) by nominating her to a newly created post in the UK to support the Portuguese community during Brexit.

André Ventura is fined by 400 euros for discriminating the gypsy community:


Quote
Racism: André Ventura fined by more than 400 euros for discriminating against gypsies

CHEGA leader and MP André Ventura was fined by the Commission for Equality and Against Racial Discrimination (CICDR) for what he wrote on Facebook against the gypsy community. He's forced to pay 438,81 euros. In August 2020, Ventura wrote on Facebook this:

Quote
“The truth always prevails. Almost 90% of the Roma community live on "other things" than their own work. As long as we do not realize that there is a structural problem of dependency and deliberate non-integration here, it will continue to grow uncontrollably.

Roma/gypsy organization criticized Ventura and sent a complaint to the CICDR, which now imposed this fine on Mr Ventura. The issue could still continue into the DA office where he could be accused or not. The highest penalty is 5 years in jail for the crime of racial discrimination.

Also, the Ervededo parish by-election is just less than a month away, but the administrative commission that runs the parish until the election, founds more than 20,000 euros in hidden debts:


Quote
Debts of 20,000 euros detected in Chaves parish with by-election

The administrative commission that runs Ervededo parish, Chaves, Vila Real, until the 13 December by-election, composed by 2 PSD members and 1 PS member, found more than 20,000 euros in debts and liens that weren't public until now. The commission also says the outgoing PSD parish president, Ilídio Jorge Correia, is refusing to give documents about the financial situation of the parish and isn't also naming who was in charge of the parish accounts. They also accuse Ilídio Jorge Correia of taking money from the parish accounts for private or other expenses. The PSD-Chaves and Mr Correia were asked, by the local media, to respond to the accusations but they remain silent.

Everything indicates that the December 13 Ervededo by-election will be a PS gain.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 19, 2020, 08:39:41 AM
André Ventura fined for anti-ziganism?
Oh no! I'm so shocked! Who could have seen this coming?

Bruh Mr. Trocatintas is a genius in some ways, you couldn't ask a comedy screenwriter to come up with a better character.

Also oops Ervededo... Lean PS -> Safe PS


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 19, 2020, 02:32:36 PM
André Ventura fined for anti-ziganism?
Oh no! I'm so shocked! Who could have seen this coming?

Bruh Mr. Trocatintas is a genius in some ways, you couldn't ask a comedy screenwriter to come up with a better character.

Also oops Ervededo... Lean PS -> Safe PS

To be fair, anti-ziganism is a bit too common in Portuguese politics. There are a lot examples, especially in local politics, of mayors of the PS, PSD, CDU and others, in being very tough on the romani/gypsy community. Even this year, the PS was embarrassed as a mayor of a PS bastion, Azambuja, proposed making a cordon sanitaire in a building inhabited by gypsies. Ventura is quite tiring on the issue as he's always talking about it.

Ventura is almost the same as Groucho Marx: "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others."


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 19, 2020, 05:55:43 PM
New controversy as PCP goes ahead with their party congress, in the last weekend of November, although with limited gatherings:


Quote
Covid-19: Without guests and without tables and with half of the delegates, this will be the PCP Congress

Like the Avante festival in September, the PCP' party congress, to be held between 28 and 30 November, is surrounded in controversy. The party doesn't intent to cancel the congress in Loures city and has announced that the delegates were cut by half, there will no tables and no guests will be invited. However, the right, mainly the PSD, are accusing the PCP of having no common sense and that they should cancel the congress. The PSD, and other parties on the right, also accuse the government of giving in to the Communists and that this gives a bad example to the country. The President of the Republic has also concerns about the congress as he decided to extend the State of Emergency. On their part, the PCP accuses the PSD and Rui Rio of being "arrogant" (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/congresso-do-pcp-jeronimo-ataca-arrogancia-de-rio-por-querer-proibir-reuniao), adding that political activities aren't forbidden and that Rio would like to put the Constitution in quarantine.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 20, 2020, 06:03:43 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-11-20-Sondagem-legislativas-alianca-com-Chega-nao-seria-suficiente-para-PSD-ultrapassar-PS-Bloco-em-queda)

Vote share %:

37.1% PS (-0.4)
24.2% PSD (-0.6)
  7.7% BE (-3.3)
  7.3% CHEGA (-0.4)
  5.3% PAN (+1.2)
  4.9% CDU (+0.6)
  4.1% CDS (nc) 
  3.3% IL (+0.9)
  1.8% Livre (+1.4)
  1.6% Others (+1.2)
  2.8% Invalid/Blank (-0.5)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.6 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.2)
3.2 António Costa (-0.1)
3.0 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
2.9 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.9 André Silva (+0.3)
2.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.7 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.2)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.2)
2.0 André Ventura (nc)
2.0 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 9 and 16 November 2020. Polled 622 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 20, 2020, 07:24:19 AM
Extention of the State of Emergency approved only with the votes of PS and PSD:


Quote
State of emergency approved with less consensus. PCP congress opens Left-Right war

The extention of the current State of Emergency passed, this morning, in Parliament with the votes of PS and PSD. CDS, CH, IL and PCP voted against, while PAN and BE abstained. During the debate, the government said that in 2 weeks, the state of emergency will probably be renewed again. However, the debate saw a clear divide between left and right with PSD/CDS accusing the government of creating exceptions like for the PCP congress. The PSD said it's unfair that millions of Portuguese are stuck at home while a few PCP members can go happily to a party congress. The PSD also accused the government of giving in to the Communists as they need their votes to pass the budget and survive in power. On their part, the PCP accused the PSD of using CHEGA's language and that if the PSD attacks aren't an order from CHEGA. The government also defended the PCP saying the current State of Emergency law as passed during the Cavaco Silva governments (1985-1995) and accused the right of trying to suspend democracy.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on November 20, 2020, 12:10:45 PM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-11-20-Sondagem-legislativas-alianca-com-Chega-nao-seria-suficiente-para-PSD-ultrapassar-PS-Bloco-em-queda)

Vote share %:

37.1% PS (-0.4)
24.2% PSD (-0.6)
  7.7% BE (-3.3)
  7.3% CHEGA (-0.4)
  5.3% PAN (+1.2)
  4.9% CDU (+0.6)
  4.1% CDS (nc) 
  3.3% IL (+0.9)
  1.8% Livre (+1.4)
  1.6% Others (+1.2)
  2.8% Invalid/Blank (-0.5)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.6 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.2)
3.2 António Costa (-0.1)
3.0 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
2.9 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.9 André Silva (+0.3)
2.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.7 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.2)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.2)
2.0 André Ventura (nc)
2.0 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 9 and 16 November 2020. Polled 622 voters. MoE of 3.90%.
Almost 2% for Livre at his point? Who are those people?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 20, 2020, 12:19:08 PM
Almost 2% for Livre at his point? Who are those people?
Yeah, the smaller parties numbers in this poll are weird. Livre at almost 2% is weird, but who knows, BE voters pissed off with the party voting for Livre? But, that, IMO, doesn't makes a lot of sense as Livre is, right now, at the same level of the Alliance. PAN at 5% is also very high for them. And ahead of CDU.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 20, 2020, 02:28:46 PM
2021 Budget final votes: Parliament starts to debate and vote on the final draft of the 2021 budget as the slim margin of the 1st vote is likely to remain:


Quote
OE 2021: PCP presses Government: “We are prepared for everything” in the Budget

Parties started to discuss and vote the final draft of the 2021 budget in Parliament. A record 1,500 amendments for the budget were presented and this afternoon the government saw some "negative coalitions" against them in Parliament. The final vote is next Wednesday but the final outcome is still a bit up in the air, although the likeliest outcome is the repetition of the slim majority in the 1st vote. BE had talks with the government, but no positive outcome came from those meetings and now the government is banking in the PCP abstention, even though the Communists are saying the current draft "isn't enough".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 21, 2020, 07:19:58 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper on the 2021 presidential election:  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/eurosondagem-ana-gomes-apanha-ventura-nas-intencoes-de-voto-para-as-presidenciais-e-marcelo-alarga-vantagem)

Vote share %:

63.1% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+2.1)
10.1% Ana Gomes (+0.1)
10.0% André Ventura (-1.0)
   7.2% Marisa Matias (-1.3)
   5.0% João Ferreira (-0.5)
   1.3% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.3)
   3.3% Others (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 November 2020. Polled 1,525 voters. MoE of 2.51%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 21, 2020, 12:22:12 PM
PSD-CHEGA agreement controversy: PSD machine and base support Rio in the agreement as many high profile members criticize the deal:


Quote
Extraordinary Congress discarded. PSD machine supports Rio in agreement with Chega

In the days after the PSD-CHEGA agreement in the Azores was announced, and the PSD letting the door open for future agreement if necessary in the national level, many high profile PSD members became very critical of the deal. Many pundits also said the PSD is making a huge mistake and a former PSD deputy, under Passos Coelho leadership, Jorge Moreira da Silva demanded a snap party congress to discuss this deal and lashed out against Rio for going against the values of the PSD. However, Expresso newspaper is reporting that the party machine and bases are all behind Mr Rio. A massive network of Whatsapp groups, covering more than 10,000 PSD members, shows, according to the newspaper, that PSD local leaders and members approve the deal and many PSD mayors across the country also support Rio on the CHEGA deal and accuse many of those high profile members of "living in a bubble" and that they don't know "the real world". However, local PSD leaders and even Rio's own leadership team are aware of the risks, but many are viewing this as the first step of the PSD return to power.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 21, 2020, 07:00:09 PM
PCP congress controversy: Costa says the law forbides him from stopping the congress, while Rio accuses the PM of protecting the Communists:


Quote
PCP Congress. Right accuses Costa of "lack of shame". CHEGA postpones national council

The new measures for 2nd extension of the State of Emergency, announced this afternoon by PM Costa, are creating more controversy surrounding the PCP national congress to be held next weekend in Loures city, a city which will have curfews during next weekend. Pressed by reporters, Costa said he cannot stop the congress as the 1986 law forbides him. However, PSD leader Rui Rio lashed out against Costa accusing him of protecting the PCP and that he's treating the Portuguese differently. He adds that the 1986 law doesn't say the government cannot advice or force the party to have a digital congress. Rio said in an TV interview last week, that if he was PM he would forbid congresses like the PCP one.

At the same time, CHEGA postponed their national council, also schedule for next week, after the PM announcement. Ventura said he doesn't agree with all the measures adopted by the PM but will comply as many Portuguese will have their liberties conditioned, he said. He also asked the PCP to postpone their congress. Law experts are divided on the issue: some say the government has the power to suspend the congress and force a digital congress, for example, while others say this would violate the spirit of the law. A controversy to continue during the next week.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 22, 2020, 07:15:48 PM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:  (https://observador.pt/2020/11/23/sondagem-marcelo-ganha-a-primeira-mas-marisa-e-ventura-aproximam-se-de-ana-gomes/)

Vote share %:

56.6% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+0.4)
16.1% Ana Gomes (-1.1)
10.5% André Ventura (+2.3)
   8.7% Marisa Matias (+2.6)
   2.3% João Ferreira (-0.3)
   1.6% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.1)
   4.2% Others (-4.0)

Poll conducted between 9 and 16 November 2020. Polled 622 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 23, 2020, 10:23:59 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Voters infected with Covid or confined 10 days before the election will not be able to vote.


Quote
Covid-19: Infected and confined voters ten days before will not be able to vote

Voters that could be infected or forced to confinement 10 days before the 24 January 2021 elections will note be able to vote either early or on election day. The rules were announced today, as infected or confined votes can only ask for an early ballot if it is filled until 14 January 2021. Voters that could become infected after that date will be barred from voting. The Electoral Commission says the situation is "very complicated" and that a solution for every single situation is impossible. The Commission also adds they don't have the means to do more.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 24, 2020, 05:46:51 AM
It's now official: President Marcelo calls the Presidential election for January 24, 2021.


Quote
Marcelo marks presidential election for January 24

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has finally called the date for the 2021 Presidential elections. In a press release in the Presidency website, Marcelo called the elections for January 24, 2021 as expected. The election was called in the last possible date as it has to be called, at minimun, 60 days before the event. If necessary, a 2nd round would be held on 14 February. Candidates have now until December 24 to formalize their candidacies in the Constitutional Court and in order to be in the ballot, candidates have to collect a minimum of 7,500 signatures. There are currently, 11 candidates that expressed interest in running, while President Marcelo is only expected, now, to announce his reelection bid during December.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 24, 2020, 12:36:14 PM
Azores: New government is sworn in.


Quote
New regional executive of the Azores has already taken office

The new Azores government, composed by PSD-CDS-PPM (the so-called AD), was sworn in this afternoon in the Azores regional Parliament, in Horta city. The new government has one vice-president, 10 secretaries and one undersecretary. The PSD has 8 secretaries, while CDS has the vice presidency and the Environment and Climate Change secretary and PPM has just the secretary related to Sea Affairs. In his first speech as President, José Manuel Bolieiro thanked his predecessor, Vasco Cordeiro, for the service he did as President between 2012 and 2020. He said the elections resulted in a desire to change by the Azoreans and that the new government is a mirror of the change. He added that he wants to persue dialogues and consensus with all branches of society by fighting poverty and helping those in most need. He concluded saying his government will defend individual liberties and fundamental rights, plus promoting the role of private initiative, the regulatory role of the state and the role of family in society.  

The PSD now governs the 2 autonomous regions in Portugal, like they did between 1976 and 1996.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 24, 2020, 09:27:00 PM
2021 Budget: "Negative coalitions" have already approved almost 40 proposals against the wishes of the government.


Quote
OE2021: In the middle of the third day, almost 40 proposals have already been approved by a negative majority

The 2021 budget final votes continue with each proposal discussed and voted in Parliament. All parties presented amendments and proposals for the budget and some are being approved against the wishes of the PS and the government. So far, the PS has seen the right and the leftwing join forces to pass several proposals like: 400 new ICU beds until March 2021; stopping budget captivations for handicap former soldiers in the armed forces; more money for the reforestation of the Leiria National Forest, which was basically destroyed in the massive 2017 wildfires. The PSD also proposed an extension to moratoriums for businesses and families which received the votes of all parties except the PS. The media reports the government is angry with all these votes and is warning parties, especially the PSD, of the consequences of these votes will have in the budget.

However, the PS is negotiating some policies with the Communists in order to get their abstention on the final vote on Thursday. The PS and PCP agreed to pay 100% for workers in temporary layoff due to the pandemic and are also talking about other policies. The PS seems to have also gain the vote of PAN dissident MP, Cristina Rodrigues. Although it's expected the final vote will be a mirror of the 1st vote, tensions are palpable as the PCP hasn't made a clear decision and BE and PS have ended talks as the PS voted against several BE policies in the last few days of voting.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 25, 2020, 10:27:00 AM
2021 Budget: "Negative coalitions" have already approved almost 40 proposals against the wishes of the government.

The number has risen to 71 budget amendments approved against the wishes of the PS/Government. This number could grow today as more amendments/proposals will be voted and the overall cost, so far, of these proposals in the budget is more than 60 million euros. The most controversial today is the PSD proposal to reduce tolls in highways. The PS is accusing the PSD of irresponsibility as, according to the Parliamentary Budget Unit, this proposal could cost 231 million euros. Of these "negative coalitions", the PSD is the party that, so far, has seen most of their proposals approved:

27 PSD
13 PCP
12 PAN
10 PEV
   5 CDS
  2 JKM
  1 Cristina Rodrigues
   1 IL
   0 BE
   0 CHEGA


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 25, 2020, 12:19:21 PM
As expected, BE will vote against the budget. (https://observador.pt/2020/11/25/orcamento-do-estado-bloco-de-esquerda-vai-mesmo-manter-voto-contra-tudo-nas-maos-do-pcp/) The media is reporting sources from the party, adding that they say that after all the BE proposals were struck down with the help of the PS, no other option was possible. The decision will be ratified in a virtual party meeting this evening. Like in the 1st vote, all is in the hands of the PCP.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 25, 2020, 04:00:51 PM
2021 Budget: PCP announces abstention, like in the first vote, and the budget will pass.


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PCP will abstain thus approving the State Budget

The Communists announced that they will abstain, like in the first vote in October, in the final vote tomorrow morning. There was some doubts about the PCP position but, at the same time, it was expected that at the end of the day, the PCP would save the budget. The party spokesperson said that the budget has some positives policies like increase of 10 euros in pensions by January 2021 and more investments in the NHS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 26, 2020, 05:27:15 AM
2021 Budget: As the budget has the votes to pass, a new controversy emerges as PSD helps BE approve the stopping of more state money to the Novo Banco.


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Turn of events in Parliament throws confusion at Novo Banco

As the budget is likely to pass, with the abstention of PCP, PEV and PAN, a new controversy emerges as the PSD voted in favour of a BE proposal to stop an almost 500 million euros injection of money in the Novo Banco. The vote, held past midnight, stunned the PS and the government and they accuse the PSD of "irresponsibility" and "political opportunism". The injection of money is for the fund responsible to manage the liquidity of the bank and the agreement between the State, EU and the bank's owner says that an injection has to happen by May 2021, but the PSD has now stop it. The PSD says they are maintaining their vote as they defend that no more money should be spent in the Bank until the audit of the Court of Auditours is completed. The PSD is probably also forcing the government to present an emergency budget, by May, to accommodate the money. This adds to another blow for the government as the PSD also saw passed their proposal to reduce the cost of highway tolls.

The debate, this morning is expected to be quite tense between PS and PSD, as the PS will ask for a re-vote on the tolls and Novo Banco proposals.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 26, 2020, 06:22:41 AM
2021 Presidential elections: 3,000 new precincts will be created because of the pandemic.


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Presidential will have three thousand more polling stations

The Electoral Commission will create more 3,000 polling station across the country in the 24 January elections due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The aim is to reduce possible gatherings of people in polling stations on election day and avoid lines. Early voting will also have polling stations in each municipality, before it was only in district capitals. Adding to this, 120 tons of protective equipment will be given to poll workers like masks, visors, surgical gloves and disinfectant gel.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 26, 2020, 09:53:44 AM
2021 Budget approved in Parliament, 108-105 in favour.


Quote
OE2021 approved only with the favorable votes of the PS

The long debate and marathon for the 2021 budget is now over with the budget approved by Parliament. The vote was exactly the same as in the 1st vote with the PS being the sole party voting in favour, all of the right, plus BE, voting against and CDU, PAN and Independent MPs abstaining. However, the budget vote was full of tensions and accusations between PS and PSD, but also PS and BE. The tolls and Novo Banco votes created a sour mood between the two parties with PS accusing the PSD of damaging Portugal's reputation in the financial markets and that they are utter irresponsible. For their part, the PSD said they are only saving the taxpayers money, for now, until an audit is complete and said it will vote in favour of an emergency budget to accommodate the nearly 500 million euros for the Novo Banco. The government is considering asking the Constitutional Court to revert the Novo Banco decision.

Pundits and analysts are considering this budget a big mess with the PS losing crucial votes in Parliament and having a budget completely changed by the opposition. Some pundits say that this budget may have passed, but the next, for 2022, will not as the support of the government in Parliament is disappearing. 2021 seems destined to be a tough year, politically, with crucial midterm local elections in October that could force a snap general election in early 2022. Financially, the year also looks very complicated with, again, the lack of support the government is facing in Parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 26, 2020, 03:47:49 PM
Novo Banco budget controversy: PS threatened PSD/Madeira MPs with the end of the Madeira Free Trade Zone.


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Socialists threatened PSD / Madeira PMs with end of Free Trade Zone

During the re-vote of the Novo Banco loan this morning, there was a strange situation involving the PSD/Madeira MPs. While the proposal was being voted, the PSD/Madeira MPs said they would vote against, violating the party mandatory approval vote, but just a few minutes later, they retracted their vote and aligned with the party official vote. One PSD/Madeira MP was seen speaking on the phone the whole time. The episode erupted doubts and asked by it, PSD leader Rui Rio didn't know what happened. In reality, it seems that the PS basically threatened the PSD/Madeira MPs with the end of the Madeira Free Trade Zone, as they would not vote to renovate the license for the free tax zone., if the PSD MPs from the islands didn't vote alongside the PS. Observador newspaper said that 3 sources confirmed the PS threat. Ultimately, the PSD leadership caucus understood what was happening and forced their 3 MPs from Madeira to vote alongside the rest of the party.

Another episode in a weird budget debate.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2020, 07:22:09 AM
Covid-19 vaccines: Costa trashes DGS vaccine plan as it puts elderly people not a priority.


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António Costa rejects leaving elderly people out of priority access to the vaccine against Covid-19

The media is reporting today that the DGS, General Health Department, chairwoman, Graça Freitas, presented earlier this week, a plan on which groups should get the new Covid-19 vaccines first. The plan, according to the media, created huge outrage in the meetting with many doctors and health specialists furious with the DGS by putting elderly people on the bottom of the priorities. As the report was being analysed by pundits, PM Costa sent a tweet trashing the plan and saying elderly people have to be a priority:

Quote
There are technical criteria that can never be accepted by policy makers. It is not permissible to give up protecting life according to age. Lives have no expiration date.

At the same time, the government sent a press release saying no official decision about who should take the vaccine has been made and that every report about it is, right now, outdated. The government created a task force that has, until late December, to devize a plan to distribute the vaccine across the country.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2020, 02:24:57 PM
PCP congress starts: Controversy continues as Jerónimo de Sousa says the Communists are still the opposition against the PS.


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XXI Congress of the PCP. PS in check at Jerónimo opening - RTP Notícias

The Communists 21st party congress started this morning in Loures city in the midst of a great controversy, as expected. The party only has 600 delegates and there are social distance rules, mandatory masks and disinfectant gel everywhere. In his opening speech, PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa pressed the idea that the PCP is still in opposition against the PS and that the "leftwing majority" didn't go further because the PS is tied with special interests and class options. He also attacked those who are leading an "reactionary and anti-communist offensive" with the goal of destroying and weakening the party. This criticism is directed to the PSD which has been a huge voice against the organization of this congress. Even today, PSD leader Rui Rio accused the PCP of superiority and arrogance, and accused the government for being a coward in letting the congress happening in these conditions. The local PSD-Loures is also criticizing the PCP mayor of Loures of approving the use of a public school pavilion for delegates to eat during the congress.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 27, 2020, 02:36:45 PM
1. Who exactly appointed Graça Freitas to her position? Lmao

2. The PCP by now uses words like "class options" and "reactionary" just for scene, I assume? They sound like a struggling party.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2020, 02:48:09 PM
1. Who exactly appointed Graça Freitas to her position? Lmao

2. The PCP by now uses words like "class options" and "reactionary" just for scene, I assume? They sound like a struggling party.

1. Costa's government in 2018.

2. The PCP has always used this kind of words, it's not just a thing of the moment. If you hear their speeches is full of stuff like "the proletariat that hurts the workers", and so on. But, you're right on the last part: they are struggling and losing ground election after election since 2015. Prior to 2015, it wasn't uncommon to see CDU, (PCP-PEV alliance) with more than 10% of the votes in polls but now that's history as polling now shows them bellow 6% and in some times even behind PAN. The party suffered a lot with their support to the PS since 2015 as they supported budgets with policies completely against the platform of the Communists, plus it's becoming an old party as more leftwing younger voters are rejecting the party in favour of PAN or BE.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 27, 2020, 02:51:28 PM
1. Who exactly appointed Graça Freitas to her position? Lmao

2. The PCP by now uses words like "class options" and "reactionary" just for scene, I assume? They sound like a struggling party.

1. Costa's government in 2018.

2. The PCP has always used this kind of words, it's not just a thing of the moment. If you hear their speeches is full of stuff like "the proletariat that hurts the workers", and so on. But, you're right on the last part: they are struggling and losing ground election after election since 2015. Prior to 2015, it wasn't uncommon to see CDU, (PCP-PEV alliance) with more than 10% of the votes in polls but now that's history as polling now shows them bellow 6% and in some times even behind PAN. The party suffered a lot with their support to the PS since 2015 as they supported budgets with policies completely against the platform of the Communists, plus it's becoming an old party as more leftwing younger voters are rejecting the party in favour PAN and BE.

Yes, I understand that, what I meant is that I doubt people take the Communist rhetoric seriously anymore, especially considering the slump in support for the party.
Also wow, self-own for Costa.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2020, 03:02:13 PM
1. Who exactly appointed Graça Freitas to her position? Lmao

2. The PCP by now uses words like "class options" and "reactionary" just for scene, I assume? They sound like a struggling party.

1. Costa's government in 2018.

2. The PCP has always used this kind of words, it's not just a thing of the moment. If you hear their speeches is full of stuff like "the proletariat that hurts the workers", and so on. But, you're right on the last part: they are struggling and losing ground election after election since 2015. Prior to 2015, it wasn't uncommon to see CDU, (PCP-PEV alliance) with more than 10% of the votes in polls but now that's history as polling now shows them bellow 6% and in some times even behind PAN. The party suffered a lot with their support to the PS since 2015 as they supported budgets with policies completely against the platform of the Communists, plus it's becoming an old party as more leftwing younger voters are rejecting the party in favour PAN and BE.

Yes, I understand that, what I meant is that I doubt people take the Communist rhetoric seriously anymore, especially considering the slump in support for the party.
Also wow, self-own for Costa.
Oh yes, this kind of rhetoric isn't taken seriously for a long time now, even in the late 70's it wasn't taken seriously. The PCP speeches are commonly called, and mocked, as "cassettes" because it's always the same thing repeated over and over again, plus more recently, as video cassettes have become relics, a sign of how old the party has become.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 28, 2020, 09:26:47 AM
2021 Budget: Marcelo likely to send back the budget to Parliament due to Novo Banco


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Marcelo should send budget back.

The Novo Banco loan rejection by Parliament continues to create controversy. The PS continues to accuse the PSD of being irresponsible, while the PSD fights back saying no penny of the tax payers money should be spent until the current audit is complete. However, this vote could violate the budget law which says that the budget plan needs to comply with rules and contracts signed by the State. Therefore, it's likely that Marcelo refuses to sign the budget and sent it back to Parliament. President Marcelo didn't comment about the vote, and only said he will analyse the budget and then make a decision. However, other newspapers are reporting that during the vote, Marcelo called all the leaders on the parties, especially the PSD leader, to stop the rejection of the loan and understand their motives. If Marcelo signs the budget however, the PS will sent it to the Constitutional Court.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 29, 2020, 07:20:42 AM
Aximage poll for JN/TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-avaliacao-ao-presidente-ao-governo-a-oposicao-13088613.html)

Q1: President's approval:

74% Approve (+14)
   9% Disapprove (-13)
12% Average (+1)
  3% Undecided (-3)

Q2: Prime Minister's approval

56% Approve (+5)
28% Disapprove (-1)
11% Average (-5)
  5% Undecided (+1)

Q3: Opposition's approval:

47% Approve (+20)
34% Disapprove (-4)
13% Average (-13)
  6% Undecided (-4)

Q4: Who's the main figure of the opposition against the government?

35% Rui Rio
20% André Ventura
20% Catarina Martins
   4% Jerónimo de Sousa
21% Undecided

Q5: Would you support a national agreement between the PSD and CHEGA?

57% No
25% Yes
18% Undecided

Poll conducted between 23 and 26 November 2020. Polled 647 votes. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 29, 2020, 11:41:15 AM
EU Council controversy: Did Portugal side with Poland and Hungary regarding the defense of the rule of law in the EU?


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European 'Bazooka': Polish government says Portugal is aligned with Hungary and Poland against the rule of law.

This controversy is somewhat old. Earlier this year, reports surfaced saying the Costa didn't want to mix the defense of the rule of law in the EU with recovery programs for countries. And in fact, after a meeting with Hungary's PM, Viktor Orbán, in July 2020, Costa said that "discussing values against money is not defending values, it's monetizing them". This created some controversy in Portugal, but now, Público newspaper printed an interview with a Polish MEP, Witold Waszczykowski, that says that Portugal in fact sided, in 2018, with Poland and Hungary against the defense of the rule of law in the EU. Mr Waszczykowski says that "The Visegrad Group" (Slovenia, Latvia and Portugal) all supported the Polish side. The newspaper also reports minutes that show that Portugal was deeply critical of the rule of law saveguard mechanism. The Foreign ministry already responded to the report saying that Portugal never crossed "the red line" of defending the rule of law and the Portugal never changed its position. At the same time, the Foreign ministry adds that Portugal never stooped reaching a consensus with all community members of the issue.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 29, 2020, 01:25:56 PM
PCP congress ends: Jerónimo de Sousa reelected with 127 votes in favour and 1 against.


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Jerónimo de Sousa reelected secretary-general. "Political alternative is not possible without the PCP"

The controversial PCP congress in Loures city ended this afternoon with the expectable reelection of Jerónimo de Sousa as PCP leader. He got 127 votes in favour of the party's central committee and 1 against, the first time in his leadership. In his short acceptance speech, Jerónimo de Sousa criticized the prolonged State of Emergency the PS and PSD approved in Parliament, adding this current state hurts people and workers as poverty is rising. He continued saying this can be solved by the policies the PCP introduced in the budget with the support of the PS, but also said the policies are not enough as the PS is "trapped in their own options and choices". He also took a jibe against the BE for not approving the 2021 budget, saying that if there are policies towards the NHS, workers and small businesses it's because the PCP helped pass them, while others decided to give up and forget the problems. He ended his speech by criticizing those who trashed the party for organizing this congress, saying that they created a "reactionary campaign" of fear.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on November 30, 2020, 06:15:11 AM
Aximage poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/como-votariam-os-portugueses-se-houvesse-eleicoes-legislativas-agora-13090687.html)

Vote share %:

37.2% PS (+1.7)
23.9% PSD (-3.1)
  7.9% BE (-2.1)
  7.5% CHEGA (+2.1)
  6.5% PAN (+1.3)
  5.8% CDU (+0.1)
  2.2% IL (-1.0)
  1.0% CDS (-0.2) 
  8.0% Others/Invalid (-1.2)

Preferred PM:

50% António Costa (+3)
18% Rui Rio (+1)
22% Neither (-1)
  4% Both (nc)
  9% Undecided (+2)

Poll conducted between 23 and 26 November 2020. Polled 647 votes. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 01, 2020, 07:00:10 AM
Aximage poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio on the Presidential election:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/quem-seria-o-presidente-da-republica-se-as-eleicoes-fossem-agora-13094132.html)

Vote share %:

62.1% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.6)
16.3% Ana Gomes (-0.9)
  6.6% André Ventura (-1.0)
  5.9% Marisa Matias (+1.2)
  2.1% João Ferreira (+0.5)
  1.1% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (-0.4)
  5.8% Others/Undecided (+1.1)

42.8% Turnout

Poll conducted between 23 and 26 November 2020. Polled 647 votes. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 01, 2020, 09:52:35 AM
PCP congress ends: Jerónimo de Sousa reelected with 127 votes in favour and 1 against

I don't suppose the identity of the sole dissident was revealed?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 01, 2020, 10:24:05 AM
PCP congress ends: Jerónimo de Sousa reelected with 127 votes in favour and 1 against

I don't suppose the identity of the sole dissident was revealed?
Of course not and this meeting was a secret one, no press or reports from inside the room were allowed.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 01, 2020, 10:32:38 AM
2021 Presidential election: President Marcelo expected to announce his run in the next few days, as the PSD machine is already collecting signatures.


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Presidentials. Marcelo presents his reelection run in the coming days

President Marcelo has made his 2nd term run a tabu, but it's the least known secret in Portuguese politics that he will run for a second term. The delay of his announcement is because of the pandemic and that he doesn't want his reelection candidacy mix with his job as President. However, today, some media outlets are reporting that Marcelo will announce his run in the next few days. i newspaper even reports that the PSD electoral machine is already collecting signatures to put Marcelo on the ballot. The deadline is 24 December. The media is also reporting that he will speak to the country next Friday to announce the extention of the State of Emergency until 4 January 2021, and after, like i newspaper reported, announce his reelection run shortly after.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 01, 2020, 09:22:43 PM
Trainwreck visit of CDS leader to restaurant owners on hunger strike in front of Parliament:


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CDS leader visits protesters on hunger strike.

Several restaurants owners, led by famous chef Ljubomir Stanisic, have camped in front of Parliament and started a hunger strike against the lack of economic aid from Costa's government towards the restaurant/bars sectors. The huger strike started 5 days ago, and protesters say they will only end the strike if the PM or the Economy minister accept meeting them. The Government says they refuse meeting with the strikers but are willing to talk to official restaurant owners associations. The strike is having a lot of media coverage and this afternoon, CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos visited the site to talk with strikers but all ended in a trainwreck. With TV cameras filming everything, Rodrigues dos Santos was advised to not talk about party politics, but he ultimately started talking about the CDS proposals and was immediately shut up by Ljubomir Stanisic and expelled shortly after from the tent. The visit only lasted 10 minutes and it was clear the embarrassment as the CDS leader talked to the media after the event. Social Media also had a field day with this scene.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2020, 07:30:34 AM
2021 Presidential election: Ana Gomes says she took a flu vaccine from France. Drug regulator in Portugal says that what she did is illegal.


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Ana Gomes took a flu vaccine that came from France. Infarmed says it is illegal

The flu vaccine campaign in Portugal has been a disaster this year, with vaccines shortages across the country and with many people, particularly elderly people, having failed to take the vaccine. The government is accused of flip flops on the issue as they guaranteed, in late summer 2020, that there would be enough vaccines but then, in mid October, acknowledged that there were not enough vaccines. The media reports almost everyday cases of people trying to get the vaccine or other weird episodes related, but now a controversial case emerged. Presidential candidate Ana Gomes wrote on twitter that she took a flu vaccine a friend of her sent from France. She said she was tired of going to pharmacy after pharmacy and not finding a vaccine so she asked a friend. She added that she took the vaccine in a pharmacy and explained everything and no one said it was a problem.

However, Infarmed, the drug regulator in Portugal, has said that what Ana Gomes did is illegal as it's forbidden to import drugs from abroad without medical prescriptions. Drug imports for personal use could also create security and health issues for the patient.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 03, 2020, 02:20:51 PM
Electoral Commission ad for the 2021 elections:




The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

Regarding President Marcelo reelection launch, the media is saying it will this Sunday in Cascais city. But all is  very secretive and open to changes still.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Estrella on December 03, 2020, 04:25:24 PM
The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

It's probably just the vaguely Mexican colours, but it looks like a logo for a PRI campaign.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 03, 2020, 06:11:27 PM
The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

It's probably just the vaguely Mexican colours, but it looks like a logo for a PRI campaign.
Are you talking about the CNE logo or the 2021 presidential logo at the end of the video? But, yes, the CNE logo looks like the PRI logo. Nonetheless, like I said above, my favourite logo is the one from 2009: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2009/index.html


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Estrella on December 03, 2020, 07:12:49 PM
The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

It's probably just the vaguely Mexican colours, but it looks like a logo for a PRI campaign.
Are you talking about the CNE logo or the 2021 presidential logo at the end of the video? But, yes, the CNE logo looks like the PRI logo. Nonetheless, like I said above, my favourite logo is the one from 2009: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2009/index.html

The latter, but I guess you're right with the CNE logo as well.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 03, 2020, 07:37:08 PM
The Electoral Commission logos for the elections have become very basic, in my view. The best one they made, IMO, was for the 2009 general elections.

It's probably just the vaguely Mexican colours, but it looks like a logo for a PRI campaign.
Are you talking about the CNE logo or the 2021 presidential logo at the end of the video? But, yes, the CNE logo looks like the PRI logo. Nonetheless, like I said above, my favourite logo is the one from 2009: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2009/index.html

The latter, but I guess you're right with the CNE logo as well.
But, well, we can't blame them. The lack of staff and funds, from designers, lawyers and others, limits what they can do, unfortunately.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 04, 2020, 09:45:59 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Marcelo's delay in announcing his reelection candidacy is creating a problem, lack of signatures to be on the ballot.


Quote
Marcelo is ready to announce his reelection. But signature collection is becoming more difficult

All of the media is reporting that Marcelo has made up his mind and has decided to run. This is no surprise, however, his delay in announcing his run is creating a big problem, it seems: lack of signatures to be on the ballot. Because of the pandemic, signatures are much harder to get this quickly, the deadline is 24 December, making it very challenging as to be on the ballot, a candidate needs a minimum of 7,500 or a maximum of 15,000 signatures. Other candidates are on the road for months now, but President Marcelo only started creating a real campaign structure in the last few weeks, it seems. Some PSD members are collection signatures using their contacts within the PSD machine, however the official head of the PSD machine, the PSD secretary-general, has said no official campaign of signatures has started, although he knows that some PSD members are persuing this. (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/maquina-do-psd-sem-ordens-para-recolher-assinaturas-para-marcelo) He added that last time, in 2015, the party and Marcelo took 2 months to collect signatures, which makes the situation this time around even more complicated.

This is what is delaying Marcelo's reelection announcement, as some media outlets say it could happen this Sunday, others say during the next week while others also say that date is still up in the air.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 04, 2020, 10:42:39 AM
As of now, some campaign posters of the candidates for the 2021 Presidential elections:

Marisa Matias (BE)

Quote
"Marisa, Force Majeure"

André Ventura (CHEGA)

Quote
"A President without fear of the system"

Bruno Fialho (PDR)

Quote
"The right choice"


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 04, 2020, 12:04:26 PM
Parliament approves another extention of the State of Emergency:

In favour: PS, PSD and MP Cristina Rodrigues
Against: PCP, PEV, CH and IL
Abstention: BE, CDS, PAN and MP Joacine Katar Moreira

President Marcelo will speak to the country, again, at 8PM.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 05, 2020, 06:45:28 PM
Internal tensions in CHEGA continue: Ventura orders that any public criticism of him and the party be sanctioned.


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Ventura creates a directive that imposes sanctions on militants who criticize leadership. One Setúbal party member has already been suspended

CHEGA internal environment continues very tense, with many criticizing Ventura and his strategy, so Ventura imposed, today, a "cork law" that forbids party members of criticizing the party and his leadership in TV/newspapers, social media and chat rooms. The penalty would be suspension from the party that could lead to a full expulsion from the party. Ventura says that something had to be done to stop the "chaos and constant internal guerrilla" within the party, that is being done by people that only want to weaken and destroy the party. Ventura adds that he doesn't think this hurts democracy within the party As of now, at least one party member from Setúbal district has already been suspended.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 06, 2020, 01:15:49 PM
It doesn't seem likely the President Marcelo announces his reelection candidacy today, as some media outlets predicted. Another delay, maybe during the next week, but time is ticking.

We will probably know something, tonight, from the "oracle of Portuguese politics", Luís Marques Mendes, in his TV comentary spot. ;D ;D ::)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 06, 2020, 05:43:06 PM
It doesn't seem likely the President Marcelo announces his reelection candidacy today, as some media outlets predicted. Another delay, maybe during the next week, but time is ticking.

We will probably know something, tonight, from the "oracle of Portuguese politics", Luís Marques Mendes, in his TV comentary spot. ;D ;D ::)

Nothing from Marcelo's reelection, but he did announced the government wants to send to Parliament the TAP airlines recovery plan for approval. If it passes in Parliament, the airline company will receive a bailout but fire a lot of people and sell more than 20 airplanes. If Parliament rejects it, TAP airlines closes:


Quote
Government wants Parliament to vote on restructuring of TAP. If it fails, the company goes for liquidation

Of course, Mr Marques Mendes scoops in his commentary spot are, more often than not, not reality, however in this TAP dossier, the government is, indeed, in a delicate position. PSD was always very critical of the PS government decision to revert the 2015 privatization, predicting it would end badly for the company and the State. Now, if this vote really happens, the PSD position is yet to be known, but a vote against by them wouldn't be surprising as PSD leader Rui Rio has constantly trashed the government's TAP airlines strategy. Plus, it seems quite impossible to convince the leftwing to support this plan. However, the EU still has to approve the plan, and only then it will go to Parliament, if the story plays out.

Update: It seems it will indeed happen. A government source said this to ECO newspaper:
Quote
If you want an airline, you have to assume that it costs money, if you don't want it, liquidate it.
plus,
Quote
Now, everyone will be called to say what they want for TAP and will start to think better before speaking

IMO, this is pure madness by the government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 06, 2020, 07:05:04 PM
I flew with TAP this February for my first extra-European holiday (two weeks in the USA)... it would be very sad if it closed.
P.S. The bacalhau I ate at the Lisbon airport was yummy

Also, I would like to comment about Ventura's authoritarian NUT stances about party unity, but all that comes to my mind is a gigantic LMAO. He really wants to be hated, huh?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 06, 2020, 07:35:15 PM
I flew with TAP this February for my first extra-European holiday (two weeks in the USA)... it would be very sad if it closed.
P.S. The bacalhão I ate at the Lisbon airport was yummy

Also, I would like to comment about Ventura's authoritarian NUT stances about party unity, but all that comes to my mind is a gigantic LMAO. He really wants to be hated, huh?

TAP is a very good airline company, but it has had bigger and bigger financial losses, even well before the pandemic. The TAP issue has become a very political and right now, it's a toxic topic, just like Novo Banco. The 2015 privatization was very badly done, without transparency and with a buyer who seemed to not have enough capital. However, Costa's deal to retake 50% of the company made things worse as it increased the risks for the State, as the State would be forced to inject money in the company even if they had nothing to do with the management of the company as in the deal reached, the private share holders would have full control of the management.

The Court of Auditors ruled that the 2015 privatization was an utter mess, but that Costa's deal to retake 50% was even worse as it, like I wrote above, increased risks for the State. The private management made several investments that grew the company and created new routes for the airline, but the increased revenue was always not enough to cover the costs, and, therefore the company was becoming more and more indebted. With the pandemic, the private management said to the State "we don't have money even to pay wages", and the government was furious and demanded more decision power in the company but the private share holders fought back. This ultimately ended, in July this year, with one of the share holders leaving the company and seeling half of his shares to the State and the other half to a Portuguese bus mogul that also has shares in TAP. The government then injected 1.2 billion euros to save the company and nominated a new team to forge a recovery plan. The recovery plan was presented last week and it proposes massive layoffs, spending cuts and the sale of several airplanes. The Left is furious with the layoffs and the right is furious as it's another bailout the company needs. But, the decision to send the plan to a vote in Parliament is madness, IMO, if the government hadn't spend 1.2 billion already it would be explainable, but now it's just madness. All looks like revenge against the PSD for the Novo Banco vote and to put Rio in a bad position. We'll see how this unfolds.

P.S. Not a fan of bacalhau to be honest, bacalhau pastels yes, but normal bacalhau, no.

(Sorry for the long post)

About Ventura, not surprising. Like I said previously, CHEGA is a full blown mess internally and if Ventura cannot control his people, even as Ventura IS CHEGA, that tells you a lot about the possible future of that party. If Ventura, for some reason, leaves CHEGA, the party would join the graveyard of political parties in Portugal. You can also argue that by doing this, he also just wants publicity, like Trump said "There's no negative publicity, just publicity".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 06, 2020, 08:01:06 PM
Did I really misspell bacalhau in an attempt to show that I can use ã and õ? Lol

Anyway, it is not very surprising that TAP is in such a mess with regards to privatization, the Italian company Alitalia has gone through a similar situation as well, being a hot topic here for years, until it has been fully re-nationalized this year (although I am not actually sure this will be the end of the story).
It really looks like the airline industry is one of the messiest.

Yeah, I would say that Ventura's move feels very Trumpian. Speaking of Ventura, what percentage of the vote in the coming year's presidential election do you think would be considered a "win" for him? Breaking 10%? Maybe just arriving in second place?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 06, 2020, 08:20:00 PM
Did I really misspell bacalhau in an attempt to show that I can use ã and õ? Lol

Anyway, it is not very surprising that TAP is in such a mess with regards to privatization, the Italian company Alitalia has gone through a similar situation as well, being a hot topic here for years, until it has been fully re-nationalized this year (although I am not actually sure this will be the end of the story).
It really looks like the airline industry is one of the messiest.

Yeah, I would say that Ventura's move feels very Trumpian. Speaking of Ventura, what percentage of the vote in the coming year's presidential election do you think would be considered a "win" for him? Breaking 10%? Maybe just arriving in second place?

Yeah, the airline industry is a mess, especially for those companies who were already near bankruptcy, like TAP, prior to the pandemic. And when you mix political strategies with a company worth billions of assets, don't be surprised something goes horribly wrong.

Anyway, Ventura is polling at around 9-10% in the average of polls. His aim is to be second and he already said that if he polls behind Ana Gomes, he will resign from the CHEGA leadership, but no believes this BS, to be honest. He also wants a 2nd round with Marcelo but that will not happen. Right now, I would say that he's behind Ana Gomes, which is polling at around 16%. But, it's still very early and this time around the debates will be very important, as normal campaigning is very limited. Turnout will also be crucial as it's expected to be very low, due to the foregone conclusion result and the pandemic itself.

P.S.: You may have confused with the Spanish Bacalao word.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 07, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
2021 Presidential election: President Marcelo expected to announce his reelection bid this afternoon in a... bakery in Lisbon, because the original venue, a bookstore, is closed due to Covid restrictions.


Quote
Reelection bid. Marcelo wanted a bookstore but it will have to be in a pastry shop

It seems that this afternoon, finally, President Marcelo will announce his reelection bid. But, the awkward part starts here. The President and his team wanted to make the announcement in a bookstore and already had the time and venue for it, but due to Covid-19 restrictions, bookstores now close very early. His team is now saying he will make his announcement at a bakery called "Versailles" near the Presidential Palace. The announcement will be live streamed on the internet and no questions will be allowed.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 07, 2020, 01:57:52 PM
2021 Presidential election: It's now official, President Marcelo runs for a second term.


Quote
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: "I always tried to think about the public and not the personal interest"

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, as expected, announced his intention of running for a 2nd term as President. He made this announcement in a bakery near the Presidential Palace, in Lisbon, where a special podium with a huge flag of Portugal behind it, was set up. In his speech, President Marcelo said he's running again because "we have a pandemic to face, a social/economic crisis to overcome and the opportunity to change Portugal for the better". He added that he will have a second term exactly the same as his first, and current, one, stressing that he's "the same person that ran in 2016, as a proud Portuguese, Universalist, Social Democrat, Catholic and Republican. He ended by asking the Portuguese their vote and saying he now awaits the verdict of the people, concluding that any decision made will be good for the country.

With President Marcelo's bid now official, there are 8 candidates with party support and many other smaller independent candidacies, so far 5 candidates. The latter ones are unlikely, IMO, to be on the ballot and it's expected that the ballot for the 24 January election will have the 8 candidates with party support.

President Marcelo's campaign has also to hurry up to collect the more than 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot. The PSD party machine seems, according to some reports, ready to make a last minute sprint to collect thousands of signatures in the next 3 weeks. The deadline is 24 December.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 08, 2020, 02:18:02 PM
2021 Presidential election debates: TV networks propose 15 one-on-one debates and 1 debate between all the candidates.


Quote
Presidentials: Televisions want to hold 15 one-on-one debates in January

The 3 main networks in Portugal, RTP, SIC and TVI, will propose a series of debates between the main candidates for the January Presidential elections. The meetings between the campaigns and the networks are expected to start in the next few days and the networks are proposing 15 one-on-one debates between the 6 main candidates: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, Ventura, Marisa Matias, João Ferreira and Tiago Mayan Gonçalves. RTP will also propose a debate with all the candidates. The networks want to start to broadcast the debates on January 2, 8 days before the beginning of the official campaign period. In 2016, there were a record 26 debates between the candidates!!

In his announcement speech, President Marcelo said he would like to debate face-to-face with many of the candidates and that this would be his preferred debate model. The most interesting debates will be between the trio Marcelo-Gomes-Ventura.

The campaign is continuing with candidates giving many interview and collecting signatures. Ana Gomes, in an interview to Observador newspaper, criticized Marcelo for hurting the rule of law after the President confessed he believed the dead of PM Sá Carneiro, in 1980, was an attack not an accident, contrary to what all the courts ruled on the matter. Ms Gomes also said she wouldn't shake André Ventura's hand and that she believes there are aspects of CHEGA that would rule it as illegal by the Constitutional Court. Ventura already responded saying that he's fine with that as Ms Gomes shacked the hand of many "illustrious people" like José Sócrates. BE candidate, Marisa Matias, also did an interview for TVI, where she branded herself as a "social democrat". Social media was quite busy because of this statement.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 08, 2020, 03:34:41 PM
How do you manage so many debates?
And why do you even need them? It's not a round-robin football tournament lmao

By the way, I bet whatever you will on Ventura having a total meltdown in at least one out of the debate with Ana "friend of ciganos" Gomes and the one with Marisa "commie Mother Teresa" Matias. Probably both.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 08, 2020, 03:53:48 PM
How do you manage so many debates?
And why do you even need them? It's not a round-robin football tournament lmao

By the way, I bet whatever you will on Ventura having a total meltdown in at least one out of the debate with Ana "friend of ciganos" Gomes and the one with Marisa "commie Mother Teresa" Matias. Probably both.
It's a way TV networks use to give equal treatment for all candidates. Normally, when there's a lot of debates, there is one every night, and I think this will be the case time, again. Of course, the debates more watched are between the main candidates, the other ones are less watched. The same happens in the general elections, PS vs PSD debates have much more audience than debates between the smaller parties.

It will be interesting to see how he behaves. The Gomes vs Ventura debate will probably be a food fight, but the Ventura-Marcelo and Marcelo-Gomes debates will also be interesting. Marcelo isn't a very strong debater so he could face a difficult task as Ventura and Gomes have a some of experience in debating (Ventura is known for trainwreck/ludicrous debates on CMTV). The Matias vs Ventura debate has also some potential as Marisa Matias is very strong in debates.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 08, 2020, 05:58:55 PM
Ventura and Gomes have a some of experience in debating (Ventura is known for trainwreck/ludicrous debates on CMTV). The Matias vs Ventura debate has also some potential as Marisa Matias is very strong in debates.

This is Ventura debating football on CMTV: (a preview of what could happen in January, maybe)





Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 09, 2020, 06:03:37 AM
TAP airlines: Government approves recovery plan in a snap cabinet meeting. Company will need almost 2 billion euros until 2024.


Quote
TAP needs three billion by 2024. Profits only in 2025

The Government has approved the TAP airlines recovery plan in a snap cabinet meeting, during yesterday afternoon and night. The plan proposes massive layoffs, cuts in wages and the sale of several airplanes adding to this billions of euros to recapitalize the company by the State. The plan will be delivered to the EU on Thursday and presented to parties during the next few days. Workers unions are furious with the plan and are asking the government to ask Brussels for a delay in delivering the plan as, according to them, the market forecasts for the company are impossible to achieve. After the 1.2 billion euros the State injected in the company this year, it's forecast that the company needs more 1.8 billion euros in order to survive until 2024.

This dossier is turning into a political storm as the government wants to force Parliament to pass the deal, even as this isn't an obligation of Parliament. PSD accuses the PS of incoherence by wanting a vote on TAP, but refusing one for the Novo Banco.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 09, 2020, 10:06:17 AM
Border control chairwoman resigns due to the assassination of an Ukrainian citizen in Lisbon airport in March:


Quote
SEF director resigns after case of Ukrainian citizen killed at Lisbon airport

The very controversial assassination of an Ukrainian citizen by border patrol officers in Lisbon airport, last March, forced, today, the SEF (Border Control agency) chairwoman, Cristina Gatões, to finally resign. Her handling of the events and investigations were highly criticized and many demanded her resignation for months now. On March 2020, an Ukrainian citizen, Ihor Homenyuk, arrived at Lisbon airport with no documents and was detained by border patrol agents. However, the events afterwards ended on border patrol agents beating up Mr Homenyuk till he died. The 3 agents are now charged with murder. She and the minister of Internal Affairs, Eduardo Cabrita, are accused of bad management in the border control agency and a new controversy surged as the interior minister announced that panic bottons would be installed in cells in Lisbon airport to avoid situations like in March.

This resignation also happens just a few days after the EU Commissioner for Internal Affairs, Ylva Johansson, said the dead of Ihor Homenyuk was a "horrible violation of human rights" and that changes in leadership were necessary. The opposition also attacked the government, with the PSD demanding action by the minister, in that he either resigned or he dismissed the SEF chairwoman.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 09, 2020, 10:20:13 AM
Well, that sounds bad.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 09, 2020, 11:50:35 AM
This was going to happen sooner or later as the government's and SEF's handling of this was just ridiculous. The minister and the SEF, at the beginning, gave different dates on when they heard about the event and when investigations started, then the agents were charged with murder and the SEF chairwoman recognized that what happen was in the grounds of torture. But then case dragged on for months, with reports surfacing that this wasn't an isolated case. All then culminated, like I wrote above, in the decision to install panic bottons in cells, which was received by the media, pundits and opposition like a bad joke.

The Interior minister now says that SEF will undergo a deep restructuring in order to separate policing from administrative work. But the minister isn't in a very good position also as there are reports that the now former SEF chairwoman could be posted in a Portuguese embassy post in London regarding Brexit.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 09, 2020, 06:12:42 PM
TAP airlines: PS rejects voting the plan in Parliament as cabinet members stopped Pedro Nuno Santos's attempt to put the plan to a vote in Parliament.


Quote
PS rules out the need to vote on TAP's plan in the AR and amending budget

During this afternoon's hearings, where the government was receiving parties to present the TAP airlines recovery plan, the PS surprised the press by saying it didn't support a vote on the plan in Parliament. The statement made by the PS deputy, Ana Catarina Mendes, was in contradiction with the reports coming from the government that a vote on the matter was certain. However, it seems that in Tuesday's late night cabinet meeting, cabinet members stopped Pedro Nuno Santos's, minister of Infrastructures, idea of voting the plan. (https://www.publico.pt/2020/12/09/politica/noticia/reestruturacao-tap-cds-preocupado-fala-orcamento-rectificativo-1942292) Público newspaper says that others ministers refused a vote on the matter by saying it didn't make sense that a decision that is the strict responsibility of the government, should pass by Parliament. PSD leader, Rui Rio, also twetted, during the afternoon saying the vote would be unprecedented and that the government is running away from the consequences of their own actions.

So, it seems that the TAP airlines plan will not be voted in Parliament, as the media and pundits were reporting. But, Brussels can still raise problems about the plan presented by the government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 10, 2020, 10:11:46 AM
Border control controversy: Minister of Internal Affairs will go to Parliament next week to answer questions by MPs, as the PS deputy leader explains her words after trashing the minister in a TV debate.


Quote
Minister doesn't resign and regrets death of Ukrainian in SEF.

The minister of internal affairs, Eduardo Cabrita, continues under fire due to the dead of an Ukrainian immigrant under custody of border control agents. With the opposition demanding his resignation, Mr Cabrita says he will not resign as minister and that he has already condemned the tragic incident that happened in Lisbon airport in March. However, the PS is very uncomfortable with this whole situation, so much so that yesterday night, the PS deputy leader, Ana Catarina Mendes, trashed the minister handling of this situation on TV debate. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-12-10-Lider-parlamentar-do-PS-espera-que-Cabrita-quebre-silencio-ensurdecedor-sobre-homicidio-no-SEF) Ms Mendes said that the minister needs to end the "deafening silence" that is coming from his office and that his statements and press releases don't seem compatible with the rule of law. But, this morning, she had changed her tone and said that the minister has all the conditions to stay in office (https://www.publico.pt/2020/12/10/politica/noticia/caso-sef-lider-parlamentar-ps-eduardo-cabrita-condicoes-continuar-1942460) and that the main responsible for the situation is the former SEF (Border Control Agency) chairwoman.

The media is really pressing on this issue and they also talked with the wife of the Ukrainian immigrant killed by border agents. Oksana Homenyuk, the widow of Ihor Homeniuk, told to SIC TV she has a huge hatred towards Portugal (https://expresso.pt/sociedade/2020-12-09-Familia-do-ucraniano-assassinado-no-aeroporto-de-Lisboa-nao-recebeu-apoio-do-Estado-portugues-e-teve-de-pagar-2200-para-trasladar-o-corpo) and that she had no contact from Portuguese authorities to apologize or give some kind of support. She adds that she had to pay herself for the transport of the body back to Ukraine, which cost more than 2,200 euros.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 10, 2020, 12:26:57 PM
Awkward press conference of the Interior minister as he announces that cabinet approved a reparation for the family of the Ukrainian immigrant killed:


Quote
Resignation? Eduardo Cabrita says that "only the Prime Minister can answer"

The minister of Internal Affairs, Eduardo Cabrita, announced after the regular cabinet meeting on Thursday, that the State will pay a reparation to the family of the Ukrainian immigrant killed by border agents. No sum of money was announced, however. But, the press conference then turned awkward as the minister tried to justify his actions by accusing the media of only talking about this issue because he raised it in March, and ironically welcomed the media into the "fight for human rights". Some reporters are accusing the minister of lying. Mr Cabrita also said that any questions about his position in cabinet should be ask to the PM.

At the same time, President Marcelo made a statement in the Presidential Palace, (https://www.dn.pt/poder/marcelo-rebelo-de-sousa-se-este-sef-nao-serve-tem-se-avancar-para-outra-realidade-13125295.html) saying his approach on this issue was very careful as there is still a legal challenge under way, but added that we need to investigate if this is just an isolated case or just one among many. If the latter is proved, the system has to change and that this SEF (Border Control Agency) should end. He concluded saying that if it's proven that the system failed, we should also evaluate if the current protagonists should remain in office. The media is labeling this as clear and warning sign for PM Costa and his Internal Affairs minister.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 10, 2020, 04:08:48 PM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC/Expresso newspaper on the 2021 presidential election:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/eleicoes-presidenciais/2020-12-10-Marcelo-com-66-das-intencoes-de-voto-Ana-Gomes-segue-no-2.-lugar)

Vote share %:

66% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+1)
13% Ana Gomes (+1)
  9% André Ventura (+1)
  7% Marisa Matias (nc)
  5% João Ferreira (-1)
  0% Other candidates (-2)

Hypothetical 2nd round matchups: (raw numbers)

62% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
12% Ana Gomes
  3% Blank/Invalid
  6% Would not vote
15% Undecided
  2% Didn't respond

71% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  7% André Ventura
  3% Blank/Invalid
  6% Would not vote
10% Undecided
  3% Didn't respond

Poll conducted between 11 and 25 November 2020. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 11, 2020, 06:18:29 AM
2021 Presidential elections: One-on-one debates between candidates in the first week of January. RTP will host an all candidates debate on 12 January.


Quote
First week of the year with 15 debates between presidential candidates.

The 3 main TV networks and representatives of the 6 main candidacies, all with some kind of party support, reached an agreement for the timetable of debates between candidates for the January elections. Between 2 and 9 January, there will be 15 one-on-one debates between the 6 main candidates, with a final all candidates debate on RTP, schedule for 12 January. The schedule debates are the following:

2 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs Marisa Matias - RTP1 (9PM)
                 João Ferreira vs André Ventura - TVI24 (10PM)

3 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs Tiago Mayan - RTP1 (9PM)

4 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs João Ferreira - TVI (9PM)
                 Marisa Matias vs Ana Gomes - SIC Notícias (10PM)

5 January: João Ferreira vs Ana Gomes - RTP1 (9PM)
                 André Ventura vs Tiago Mayan - SIC Notícias (10PM)

6 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs André Ventura - SIC (9PM)
                 João Ferreira vs Tiago Mayan - TVI24 (10PM)

7 January: Marisa Matias vs André Ventura - SIC (9PM)
                 Ana Gomes vs Tiago Mayan - TVI24 (10PM)

8 January: Ana Gomes vs André Ventura - TVI (9PM)
                 Marisa Matias vs João Ferreira - RTP1 (9:30PM)

9 January: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa vs Ana Gomes - RTP1 (9PM)
                 Marisa Matias vs Tiago Mayan - SIC (10PM)

12 January: All candidates debate - RTP1 (9PM)

IMO, this lineup is just stupid. There are debates that will have almost zero audience, especially those after big expected debates like Ventura vs Gomes, Marcelo vs Gomes, Marcelo vs Ventura and Ventura vs Matias. It would have been better to extend the debates to almost near election day, or until early voting day, 18 January. But, whatever, it is what it is.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 11, 2020, 06:26:39 AM
1. SIC/Expresso must really have money to throw away to commission a poll that includes hypothetical runoff matchups. I'd be extremely shocked if Marcelo fell below 50%.

2. The debate schedule seems indeed silly, but in my opinion there should only be one debate, that with all candidates together, so I don't particularly care.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 11, 2020, 06:46:08 AM
1. SIC/Expresso must really have money to throw away to commission a poll that includes hypothetical runoff matchups. I'd be extremely shocked if Marcelo fell below 50%.

2. The debate schedule seems indeed silly, but in my opinion there should only be one debate, that with all candidates together, so I don't particularly care.
1. Polling companies almost always, even in forgone conclusion elections, ask hypothetical matchups. 5 years ago, literally no poll said Marcelo would be forced into a 2nd round, but pollsters made hypothetical matchups questions anyway. The same happened during Cavaco's reelection in 2011. Marcelo is will in on the 1st round, that basically certain. The main question is what will be the margin, especially in an election in which turnout is expected to reach record low levels overall, my guess is that the overall turnout will be somewhere between 30-40%.

2. One-on-one debates are interesting, in my opinion, and create, sometimes, interesting dynamics. But, exactly, this debate lineup doesn't make sense. I myself will only watch "the big 4 one-on-one" debates and the RTP all candidates debate. While zapping may watch parts of the others, but unlikely.

Also, regarding the ongoing Interior minister controversy, PM Costa says he has full confidence in the minister:


Quote
António Costa maintains "total confidence" in the Minister of Internal Administration - RTP Notícias

PM António Costa announced he has full confidence in his Interior minister, Eduardo Cabrita, as the ongoing controversy surrounding the assassination of an Ukrainian immigrant by border control agents is putting the minister under fire. The PM said the minister "did what he had to do", adding that the minister has reforms ready for the Border Control Agency (SEF). Pundits, media and the opposition are demanding the resignation of the minister and some media outlets say the PS is worried with how fragile the minister situation is right now. Some PS MPs are saying, in private, the whole situation is an "embarrassment" for the State. On social media, the hashtag "#CabritaOut", is trending since yesterday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 11, 2020, 07:41:01 AM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll data on the ideology of the electorate:  (https://sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/2020/12/08/sondagem-novembro-dezembro-2020-para-sic-expresso-parte-1/)

Ideology position:

32.3% Center
26.9% Center-left to leftwing
25.7% Center-right to rightwing
15.1% None

Party ideological positions: (0=left; 10=right)

4.6 PS
6.8 PSD
3.7 BE
2.8 CDU
7.6 CDS
4.7 PAN
7.2 CHEGA
5.9 IL
4.0 Livre

Party sympathy:

26.4% PS
13.6% PSD
   4.7% BE
   4.7% CDU
   3.8% CHEGA
   1.4% PAN
   0.8% CDS
   0.6% IL
   0.1% Livre
   0.2% Others
39.3% None
  4.4% Don't know

Poll conducted between 11 and 25 November 2020. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.

The general election poll numbers I believe will only be published next week. However, these numbers are interesting. The gap between left and right was reduced from 2.4% in October to just 1.2% now. In February, the right-left gap was 12.3% in favour of the left. Also, interesting that voters see CDS a bit more to the right than CHEGA.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 11, 2020, 09:32:40 AM
So people think Chega is to the left of CDS and just slightly more conservative than Rio's PSD? That's surprising.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 11, 2020, 09:50:16 AM
So people think Chega is to the left of CDS and just slightly more conservative than Rio's PSD? That's surprising.
Yes, however, the number of voters saying they are CDS voters is very, very small in the sample, while CHEGA's is much higher, so, the CDS numbers may be underestimated. But, this fits into the logic that many CHEGA voters are also people from the center ground who are just fed up with the current system and maybe don't see it as a far-right party.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 11, 2020, 10:09:18 AM
Ervededo parish by-election: PSD files complaint against the PS as they accuse the party of giving Christmas baskets just 3 days before the election.


Quote
PSD Chaves files complaint to the National Election Commission

With the Ervededo parish by-election just a few days away, on December 13, the campaign is in the final stretch and the PSD has now filed a complaint against the PS for giving Christmas baskets full of food products, to many households in the parish. The PSD accuses the PS an "immoral, shamefull, and also illegal" act. The Social Democrats also accuse the Socialist of using the current fragile state of many families for political proposes. The PS responded with the accusation saying these Christmas baskets distribution are happening all across Chaves municipality, that it's weird the PSD is against giving some kind of support for families in need and that the PSD should worry with the money the previous PSD parish president of Ervededo diverted to private expenses.

901 voters will be called to elect a new parish assembly next Sunday, for a very small 11 month term, and it's expected this race to be a PS gain from the PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 11, 2020, 08:32:18 PM
Ervededo parish by-election: PSD files complaint against the PS as they accuse the party of giving Christmas baskets just 3 days before the election.

The Electoral Commission (CNE) sided with the PSD and ordered that all Christmas baskets distributions in the parish to be stopped until the election is over. (https://observador.pt/2020/12/12/comissao-nacional-de-eleicoes-suspende-entrega-de-cabazes-sociais-pela-camara-de-chaves-ate-eleicoes-em-freguesia/) In the CNE view, the distribution of baskets "can be understood as favoring or harming one competitor to the elections, to the detriment or advantage of another".

Also, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa gave an interview this evening, and let's say that he threw almost everyone under the bus:


Quote
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa admits to accept a government with parliamentary support from CHEGA

The interview on SIC TV was very tense. The 2 journalists pressed Marcelo a lot, mainly due to the Ukrainian immigrant killing, questioning the President why he didn't talked with the widow, and why were press realeases about the dead of David Bowie more important than this. The President responded by saying he didn't talk with widow because there was an ongoing judicial process, however, he did said he warned PM Costa several times about the issue but that he seems to not have listen. He also defended that TAP airlines should not cease to exist mainly due to the Portuguese communities overseas. About the possible political future of the country, President Marcelo didn't said that Rui Rio is the current clear alternative to Costa, but rather that Mr Rio "is growing" in his role. He also said he would accept a government supported by CHEGA saying that if CHEGA exists is because the mainstream parties were asleep and that he warned of the danger of parties like CHEGA surging, mainly to PM Costa and PSD leaders.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 12, 2020, 07:04:44 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/sondagem-otimismo-moderado-sobre-vacina-e-confianca-em-marcelo_n1282285)

Vote share %:

38.8% PS (+0.5)
29.4% PSD (-0.3)
  7.2% BE (-1.1)
  5.3% CDU (-0.5)
  5.2% CHEGA (+0.2)
  2.5% CDS (-0.2) 
  2.0% PAN (-0.2)
  1.1% IL (+0.1)
  8.5% Others/Invalid (+1.5)

Q: When a Covid vaccine is available, will you trust it and take it?

48.2% Yes
37.2% No
14.3% Undecided

Poll conducted between 7 and 10 December 2020. Polled 1,020 voters. MoE of 3.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 12, 2020, 09:10:13 AM
2021 Presidential elections: PDR candidate drops out from the race; João Ferreira and Mayan Gongalves have enough signatures to be on the ballot.


Quote
Bruno Fialho withdraws from candidacy for Belém due to the moment the country is going through

With just 12 days left until the deadline to submit signatures to the Constitutional Court, candidates are rushing to get signatures. However, some candidates are dropping from the race. PDR leader and candidate, Bruno Fialho, announced, this morning, he was dropping out from the race even though he had more than the required 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot. He says this race will a "media circus" and therefore he doesn't want to spend thousands of euros in this race. This leaves 8 candidates so far, but the number could still change before and after December 24. João Ferreira, CDU candidate, already delivered his signatures to the Court, and IL candidate, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, announced be collected more than 10,000 signatures and will deliver them next week. President Marcelo is also collecting signatures, and now he even has the help of some PS members as he's still far away from the 7,500 signatures needed, according to Expresso newspaper.

CDS will also announce today who they will support in the elections. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-12-12-Rodrigues-dos-Santos-apela-ao-voto-no-catolico-Marcelo-contra-o-fantasma-de-Ventura) CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, wants to support President Marcelo, saying he's a Catholic and shares CDS's values, plus that he's the right choice against the "threat" of CHEGA. The CDS national council will vote on the matter during today.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 12, 2020, 01:12:25 PM
CDS will also announce today who they will support in the elections. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-12-12-Rodrigues-dos-Santos-apela-ao-voto-no-catolico-Marcelo-contra-o-fantasma-de-Ventura) CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, wants to support President Marcelo, saying he's a Catholic and shares CDS's values, plus that he's the right choice against the "threat" of CHEGA. The CDS national council will vote on the matter during today.

According to media reports, the CDS national council is being a trainwreck. Many CDS members are trashing the leader of the party and even Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa for being the "savior of the Geringonça", the name the PS-BE-CDU agreement is known for.

Update: CDS approved their support to President Marcelo with 82% of the councillors in the party voting in favour. (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/apoio-a-marcelo-reune-81-de-votos-no-cds?ref=hp_destaquesprincipais) However, like I wrote above, there's no enthusiasm for Marcelo and many, in the meeting, trashed him.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 13, 2020, 07:16:01 AM
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is a boss, undoubtedly.

CDS judging from that national council sounds like an embattled party that is trying to play more-right-wing-than-thou because they don't know where to go and because of CHEGA, which actually checks out if the party is really polling at 2.5%.

Also, what is PDR?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 13, 2020, 07:47:24 AM
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is a boss, undoubtedly.

CDS judging from that national council sounds like an embattled party that is trying to play more-right-wing-than-thou because they don't know where to go and because of CHEGA, which actually checks out if the party is really polling at 2.5%.

Also, what is PDR?

Well, the media reaction of Marcelo's interview was a bit negative. Pundits say the President tried to excuse himself from his responsibilities regarding the ongoing controversies. The first 15 minutes of the interview were really, really uncomfortable to watch as journalists were really pressing Marcelo and the answers he was giving weren't satisfying the journalists at all.

CDS is the main victim of CHEGA's and IL's arrival. The party has lost all its appeal and right now it common to ask "What's the point of CDS existence?". The more rightwing voters of the party are leaving it for CHEGA, according to polls, plus the more liberal parts are going for PSD and IL. The CDS is really in a hard place and it's unclear how they will get out of this mess.

PDR, Democratic Republican Party, is a party founded in late 2014 by the former lawyers bar association chairman, António Marinho e Pinto after his very successful result in the 2014 EP election, where he got 7.2% of the votes by leading the MPT list. A few months later, he left MPT and formed his own party, PDR, which is a centrist, judicialist and pro-regionalist party. But this project proved to be failure, as in the 2015 general elections the party only polled 1.1%, in the 2019 EP elections just 0.5% and in the 2019 general elections a mere 0.2%.

Also, today is the Ervededo parish by-election. Almost 900 voters are registered. The PS is looking for its second parish by-election gain since 2017 and for the 1st gain from the PSD. The PSD is looking to hold on to a parish which they have dominated in the last decades.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 13, 2020, 10:58:04 AM
Also, today is the Ervededo parish by-election. Almost 900 voters are registered. The PS is looking for its second parish by-election gain since 2017 and for the 1st gain from the PSD. The PSD is looking to hold on to a parish which they have dominated in the last decades.

So far, very low turnout in the Ervededo by-election. At noon, only 26% of registered voters had cast a ballot and because Chaves municipality has mandatory curfew after 1PM, turnout is unlikely to increase very much until 7PM. There will probably be another update before 7PM.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 13, 2020, 11:36:37 AM
Also, today is the Ervededo parish by-election. Almost 900 voters are registered. The PS is looking for its second parish by-election gain since 2017 and for the 1st gain from the PSD. The PSD is looking to hold on to a parish which they have dominated in the last decades.

So far, very low turnout in the Ervededo by-election. At noon, only 26% of registered voters had cast a ballot and because Chaves municipality has mandatory curfew after 1PM, turnout is unlikely to increase very much until 7PM. There will probably be another update before 7PM.

Another update. Turnout seems to be soaring during the afternoon. At 4PM, almost 48% had cast a ballot, which means that the final turnout will be very close to the 2017 numbers or even surpass it. The 1PM curfew isn't having an effect on turnout as I feared.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 13, 2020, 05:21:39 PM
Ervededo parish by-election: PS gain from PSD (https://www.avozdetrasosmontes.pt/noticia/30040)

58.5% PS (+11.9), 4 seats (+1)
40.0% PSD (-8.8 ), 3 (-1)
  1.5% Blank/Invalid (-3.1)

51.4% Turnout (-3.2)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 13, 2020, 05:24:45 PM
Ervededo parish by-election: PS gain from PSD (https://www.avozdetrasosmontes.pt/noticia/30040)

58.5% PS (+11.9), 4 seats (+1)
40.0% PSD (-8.8 ), 3 (-1)
  1.5% Blank/Invalid (-3.1)

51.4% Turnout (-3.2)

Socialistslide!

Obviously there's the caveat of a very small sample of voters making swings easier, but a 21% swing is still quite dramatic.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 13, 2020, 05:38:35 PM
Ervededo parish by-election: PS gain from PSD (https://www.avozdetrasosmontes.pt/noticia/30040)

58.5% PS (+11.9), 4 seats (+1)
40.0% PSD (-8.8 ), 3 (-1)
   1.5% Blank/Invalid (-3.1)

51.4% Turnout (-3.2)

Socialistslide!

Obviously there's the caveat of a very small sample of voters making swings easier, but a 21% swing is still quite dramatic.

453 votes out of 882 registered. The PS got 265 votes, the PSD 181. 7 ballots were blank or invalid. To be honest, even I would vote for the PS if I lived in this parish. The former PSD president used parish money to pay gamble debts in a casino in Verin, Spain. The guy was nuts! xD

Also, this result is very bad for the PSD in Chaves. The party suffered a surprise defeat in 2017, although the signs were there, way before, for the PSD that they were on the verge of losing Chaves. Chaves is very loyal to the PSD in national elections, but in local elections it has a history of swinging between PS and PSD. For next year's election, the PSD has no shot in taking back Chaves, the city is a safe PS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 13, 2020, 05:59:52 PM

453 votes out of 882 registered. The PS got 265 votes, the PSD 181. 7 ballots were blank or invalid. To be honest, even I would vote for the PS if I lived in this parish. The former PSD president used parish money to pay gamble debts in a casino in Verin, Spain. The guy was nuts! xD

Also, this result is very bad for the PSD in Chaves. The party suffered a surprise defeat in 2017, although the signs were there, way before, for the PSD that they were on the verge of losing Chaves. Chaves is very loyal to the PSD in national elections, but in local elections it has a history of swinging between PS and PSD. For next year's election, the PSD has no shot in taking back Chaves, the city is a safe PS.

Huh, I didn't realize you are usually a PSD voter (are you?)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 13, 2020, 06:10:13 PM
Huh, I didn't realize you are usually a PSD voter (are you?)
Yep. I have always voted PSD in national elections, however I have voted PS a few times in local elections. Next year's Presidential election, I'm considering voting for Ana Gomes because, IMO, Marcelo need a bit of a shake up, and because I like her anti-corruption message.

Border Control Agency (SEF) controversy continues: Interior minister shuts up the Police National Director because of the idea of extinguishing SEF and the current Police to create a single Police force.


Quote
Eduardo Cabrita says it's not "a police director" who announces reform of the SEF

It being a tense night in the Government. During the weekend, reports said that the government was considering ending the current Border Control Agency (SEF) and reintegrate their staff in the National Republican Guard and the Police. Police unions say that's fine but that they need more money and better working conditions. But, this Sunday, this escalated. The National Director of the Police was called to attend a meeting with President Marcelo, in a weird move that surprised the media and pundits. The "official reason" of the meeting was because of the killing of a police officer by prison guard in Evora while he was rescuing a woman who was beaten up that prison guard. However, when the meeting ended, the Police director said it would be a good idea to extinguish the SEF and the Police and create a single National Police force. The media was stunned by the statement and so was the Interior minister. Eduardo Cabrita, under fire because of the assassination of an Ukrainian immigrant in Lisbon airport, publicly shut up the Police director by saying "no police director announces reforms". But the minister didn't confirm if a single Police force idea was on the table.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 14, 2020, 07:33:06 AM
CDS internal crisis in the horizon? CDS MP, Cecília Meireles, advised to leave her seat for CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. She says she won't be silenced.


Quote
Cecília Meireles challenged to leave Parliament to make way for Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos.

Last Saturday's national CDS council didn't discuss just the Presidential elections, but also the party's internal situation. The media reports that many CDS councillors, close to the party leader, asked and advised MP Cecília Meireles to leave her seat in order for Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos to be in Parliament. Ms. Meireles was the sole CDS MP elected from Porto, while Mr. Santos was the number 2 on the list. Ms Meireles criticized the current party strategy and many of those close to the leader were furious and asked for her to leave her seat. According to reports, she was stunned by the proposal and asked for "respect" from the leadership and that she won't be silenced.

A possible leadership contest, during 2021, in CDS is not out of the question. Many pundits argue that the really bad state of the party, polling 2-3% and sometimes in last place, is putting a lot of CDS members furious with the current leader and many are already asking for a change in leadership.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on December 14, 2020, 10:01:20 AM
Cecília should've become leader instead of Chicão imo. She's by far the best talent CDS has. But I guess maybe they weren't ready for two female leaders in a row.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 14, 2020, 10:11:28 AM
Cecília should've become leader instead of Chicão imo. She's by far the best talent CDS has. But I guess maybe they weren't ready for two female leaders in a row.
Indeed. She is, currently, the best asset CDS has in Parliament. CDS thought that the only way to fight the CHEGA surge was to copy CHEGA. I think they have now realised the big mistake they did, as voters would preffer the original rather than the crappy copy, of course. I have doubts that "Chicão" will lead CDS in the next general elections. The party will have a new leader by then, either Cecília Meireles or Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, IMO.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 15, 2020, 07:02:44 AM
2021 election campaign: Ana Gomes and Marisa Matias consider asking for a review in the legalization of CHEGA if elected President.


Quote
Presidential elections: Ana Gomes will ask for a review of the legality of Chega if elected President

The 2021 Presidential candidates are now giving a lot of TV interviews, as normal campaign is basically halted do to the pandemic, and positions start to be defined. Ana Gomes and Marisa Matias have, in the last few days, pressed on the idea that there should be a review of the legalization of CHEGA as a party by the Constitutional Court. Both consider the party to violate the Constitution and democratic values, and are arguing for a review in its current acceptance by the Courts. Marisa Matias says that, if elected, she would not approve a government supported by CHEGA. Ana Gomes says that she would do the same, and also attacked Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, after he said there's nothing a President can do about possible party supports for governments, that he cannot uphold the Constitution and approve a government with the support of CHEGA.

Legal experts and Constitutionalists say that it would very difficult, if not impossible, for the Constitutional Court to reverse CHEGA's legalization (https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/718011/presidenciais-o-que-fazer-a-um-governo-apoiado-pelo-chega-?seccao=Portugal_i) as a party saying it could create a "counterproductive reaction". Some also point that there's no legal ground for a President to reject CHEGA's integration in a future cabinet and that this kind of rhetoric could actually benefit CHEGA in the polls.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 15, 2020, 10:37:44 AM
Yeah, simply declaring far-right* parties illegal rarely works.

(*as opposed to genuine neo-Nazis and the like, where the calculus is somewhat different)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: VPH on December 15, 2020, 12:00:58 PM
It would probably strengthen Chega's appeal by creating martyrs out of them. Not smart, but it's not like Gomes or Matias stand any chance of beating Marcelo.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 15, 2020, 12:29:39 PM
I believe this move is a mistake from Ana Gomes, but for Marisa Matias, unfortunately for her, may be her only campaign pitch. Gomes should focus heavily on her rhetoric of an anti-corruption champion and that the system needs a change. Going in this path of talking about ilegalization of CHEGA could turn off many on the center/center-right who, like me, are not very inclined to support Marcelo this time. It's one thing to attack Ventura and all of his ludicrous claims, but talking about banning parties isn't the right path for Gomes, in my view.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 15, 2020, 05:01:27 PM
CESOP-UCP poll for RTP1/Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/sondagem-presidenciais-marcelo-reeleito-a-primeira-volta-com-68-dos-votos_n1283040)

Vote share %:

68% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes
   8% André Ventura
   5% Marisa Matias
   5% João Ferreira
   1% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
   0% Others

Support by party:

PS: 66% Marcelo; 7% Gomes; 1% Ventura; 1% Ferreira; 1% Matias
PSD: 69% Marcelo; 4% Ventura; 3% Gomes; 1% Matias
BE: 28% Marcelo; 17% Gomes; 13% Matias; 2% Ventura
CDU: 38% Ferreira; 32% Marcelo; 3% Matias
CHEGA: 72% Ventura; 13% Marcelo
PAN: 23% Matias; 18% Marcelo; 5% Gomes
IL: 30% Marcelo; 15% Mayan Gonçalves; 6% Gomes
CDS: 58% Marcelo; 5% Gomes; 5% Ventura

Poll conducted between 4 and 11 December 2020. Polled 1,315 voters. MoE of 2.70%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 15, 2020, 07:00:11 PM
Eduardo Cabrita, Interior Minister, goes to Parliament but the media points he didn't answer many, many questions:


Quote
Eduardo Cabrita: two hours ignoring criticism and without explaining what he will do to SEF

The expected Interior minister hearing in Parliament fell flat. Pundits and media are stunned that the minister, Eduardo Cabrita, didn't answer most questions made by parties, nor he responded to the main criticisms towards his handling of the controversy. About the future of the Border Control Agency, Mr Cabrita was also vague, only saying that a reform will be announced in January 2021. He did, however, a jibe towards the Police National Director, again, saying that Police should "only talk about matters within its competence".

Also, this evening, RTP continued its series of interviews with candidates and tonight, André Ventura was the invitee by RTP:


Quote
Presidential: André Ventura admits swearing in a government with the PCP members

Responding to the criticisms Ana Gomes and Marisa Matias are making towards CHEGA, André Ventura said that if he's elected President, he would sworn in any cabinet, even if it had PCP members, adding that he would respect the "will of the Portuguese" and that "as a democrat, would warn" about issues. He also accused the left candidates of not having "democratic sense" by wanting to ban his party. He was also confronted with the RTP poll, that places him 3rd, and was asked if he would still resign if he polls 3rd. Mr Ventura, now, says that the decision will be made by his party.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 15, 2020, 07:08:23 PM
It's kind of surprising to see that the level of support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the PS is basically the same as in the PSD. I would have expected more defections towards leftist candidates.

Also confronting how many BE voters support Matias or CDU voters support Ferreira to how many CHEGA voters support Ventura gives you a strong insight into the veridicity of the expression "Ventura is CHEGA".

Regarding Ventura's interview:
I mean, it was already obvious to everyone here that his pledge was straight-up BS, but backtracking on it even before the election is so lame. I guess he's thinking it's a good way to save face in advance. I don't think it is.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 15, 2020, 07:34:02 PM
It's kind of surprising to see that the level of support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the PS is basically the same as in the PSD. I would have expected more defections towards leftist candidates.

Also confronting how many BE voters support Matias or CDU voters support Ferreira to how many CHEGA voters support Ventura gives you a strong insight into the veridicity of the expression "Ventura is CHEGA".

Regarding Ventura's interview:
I mean, it was already obvious to everyone here that his pledge was straight-up BS, but backtracking on it even before the election is so lame. I guess he's thinking it's a good way to save face in advance. I don't think it is.
The PSD and PS support for Marcelo are, more or less, on the line with other polls. The PS, in this one, seems a bit more supportive for Marcelo, while other polls give PS support for Marcelo around 60%. Ana Gomes isn't very loved by the PS as she has a been, in the past, very critical of the party due to some corrupt and incorrect practices, like the nepotism scandal last year. I still believe she will get a very good chunk of the PS vote in her favour, and to be honest, I also found curious that Ventura and Gomes are neck and neck in PSD voters. The polling company, however, predicts that Marcelo's vote share will drop a lot by election day.

The BE, CDU results, if true, are a disaster for them, especially BE. BE has been dropping a lot in the polls lately, and Matias, like I said above in another post, has basically nothing to sell. Her campaign strategy, so far, seems to defeat Ventura, not to mention her awkward and ideological flip-flopping. Also, curious that, in the poll, there's more BE supporters voting in Ventura than PS supporters.

About Ventura's interview, of course all of that "if I poll behind X or Y, I will resign" was BS. Now, the big error Gomes and Matias are making in saying they would ban CHEGA if elected, could benefit CHEGA.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 16, 2020, 10:29:23 AM

About Ventura's interview, of course all of that "if I poll behind X or Y, I will resign" was BS. Now, the big error Gomes and Matias are making in saying they would ban CHEGA if elected, could benefit CHEGA.

Of course, they can make such a "promise" knowing that they are highly unlikely to win and thus be expected to at least try and make it actually happen. In the meantime, it plays well their their "base".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 16, 2020, 11:45:07 AM

About Ventura's interview, of course all of that "if I poll behind X or Y, I will resign" was BS. Now, the big error Gomes and Matias are making in saying they would ban CHEGA if elected, could benefit CHEGA.

Of course, they can make such a "promise" knowing that they are highly unlikely to win and thus be expected to at least try and make it actually happen. In the meantime, it plays well their their "base".
Not to mention that if he indeed resigned from CHEGA, the party would basically colapse. CHEGA is a one man show.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 16, 2020, 06:57:21 PM
The return... of the Jedi? Rui Rio considering running Santana Lopes as a PSD candidate in the next local elections.


Quote
Santana had dinner with Rio to talk about local elections. Candidacy under review

The media is reporting, this evening, that former Alliance leader Pedro Santana Lopes and PSD leader Rui Rio, had dinner in Lisbon and both talked about the 2021 local elections. Santana Lopes left the PSD in 2018, and created his own party, the Alliance. His new political project turned out to be a huge fiasco, as the party only polled 0.8% in the 2019 general elections. He left the leadership of his party during the middle of this year. Now, it seems he could be a PSD candidate in 3 possible cities, Lisbon included, it seems. Others options are Sintra and Figueira da Foz, where he was also mayor (1998-2001).

As a PSD voter, I sure hope they put him leading a list in a safe PS or PSD city, if he even says yes to running. Figueira da Foz seems the best place for him, IMO, they still love him there and in fact that city gave his party its best results, almost 3%, in 2019. Putting him, again, as a PSD candidate in Lisbon is just literally giving up on winning the capital, IMO. Plus, they have much better people to run in the capital.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2020, 10:55:29 AM
2021 local elections: Santana Lopes says "God forbid!" on a possible 2021 local run.


Quote
"Nothing, nothing, nothing. God forbid." Santana Lopes was not polled nor does he want to be a candidate in municipalities

After the reported dinner yesterday, at Tivoli Hotel in Lisbon, between Santana Lopes and PSD leader Rui Rio, speculation surfaced that Santana would be a candidate in the 2021 local elections either in Lisbon, Sintra or Figueira da Foz. But, this afternoon, Santana denied any chance of running: "Nothing, nothing, nothing. God forbid.". He guarantees that Rui Rio didn't asked him to run nor would he accept that task. He also adds that the dinner invitation was made by someone else, and not from Mr Rio. He said that they talked about politics and about a possible snap general election, nothing more.

P.S.: The last time a politician here used a higher deity to reject a political run was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 1996, when he said "Not even if Christ came back to earth would I run for the PSD leadership" (https://www.newsmuseum.pt/pt/lounge/nem-que-cristo-desca-terra). A few weeks later, Marcelo was running for the PSD leadership. Let's hope this time Santana really means it.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 17, 2020, 03:12:57 PM

P.S.: The last time a politician here used a higher deity to reject a political run was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 1996, when he said "Not even if Christ came back to earth would I run for the PSD leadership" (https://www.newsmuseum.pt/pt/lounge/nem-que-cristo-desca-terra). A few weeks later, Marcelo was running for the PSD leadership. Let's hope this time Santana really means it.

Ouch!

I hope Santana cares about the Second Commandment more than Marcelo. ;)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2020, 03:53:10 PM

P.S.: The last time a politician here used a higher deity to reject a political run was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 1996, when he said "Not even if Christ came back to earth would I run for the PSD leadership" (https://www.newsmuseum.pt/pt/lounge/nem-que-cristo-desca-terra). A few weeks later, Marcelo was running for the PSD leadership. Let's hope this time Santana really means it.

Ouch!

I hope Santana cares about the Second Commandment more than Marcelo. ;)
Marcelo now acknowledges that the "Christ gaffe" was a huge mistake and that it cast a shadow over his term as PSD leader as a not very trustworthy person. Now, Santana, the guy hasn't win an election since 2001, and he has run for everything, PM, mayor, PSD leader and lost. Maybe his telling the truth, but you never know.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2020, 04:17:28 PM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2020-12-17-Intencoes-de-voto-dos-portugueses-PS-sobe-e-PSD-desce)

Vote share %:

39% PS (+2)
25% PSD (-2)
   8% BE (nc)
   7% CHEGA (nc)
   7% CDU (+1)
   2% PAN (-2)
   2% CDS (nc)
   1% IL (-1)
   3% Others (-1)
  5% Blank/Invalid (+3)
 
Government's job approval:

51% Approve (+2)
42% Disapprove (-1)
  7% Undecided (-1)

Poll conducted between 11 and 25 November 2020. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.

A bit of an old poll, unfortunately, as it doesn't cover the big headlines of the last 3/4 weeks: the budget/Novo Banco fiasco; the TAP fiasco and the ongoing SEF/Ihor scandal. Curious to see if the PS share goes down or holds up.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 18, 2020, 11:21:23 AM
2021 Presidential election: With just 6 days left to collect signatures, candidates start formalizing their candidadies at Court.


Quote
Presidential elections: Presidential: Marisa Matias promises not to give up in favor of Ana Gomes

So far, 3 candidates have officially delivered signatures to the Constitutional Court in order to be on the ballot for the 24 January election. João Ferreira was the first, early this week, and today Ventura and Marisa Matias formalized their candidacies by delivering to the Court more than the 7,500 signatures needed. IL candidate, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, is expected to deliver his signatures today or Monday. Ana Gomes, Marcelo and other possible candidates, like Tino de Rans, could deliver their signatures on the last possible day, 24 December. However, Público newspaper reports that President Marcelo's campaign continues to struggle in getting signatures and that many local PSD leaders are refusing to sign Marcelo reelection papers. (https://www.publico.pt/2020/12/18/politica/noticia/autarcas-ajudam-marcelo-recolher-assinaturas-1943398)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 18, 2020, 02:25:24 PM
Things are getting tense in Porto city: DA offices asks for the removal of office of Porto Mayor, Rui Moreira, due to corruption accusation.


Quote
MP accuses Rui Moreira in Selminho case and asks for loss of mandate

The DA office has accused Porto's mayor, Rui Moreira, of malfeasance in a case, called Selminho, his family's real estate company, which tried to build an apartment building on a piece of land in the Arrábida escarpment that was partly owned by the municipality. The DA also says the mayor was partial towards his family and harmed Porto city's interests by benefiting his family company. Mr Moreira already reacted to the accusation saying he's surprised by it, and also because of the timing as Moreira is up for reelection next October. He added that the accusation is "ludicrous and unfounded" but that he's calm and that he will give a more complete statement next Monday.

This is the 3rd big city mayor, this year, to face a removal from office request by the DA: Castelo Branco city mayor (PS) lost his case earlier this year and was removed from office; and Maia city mayor (PSD/CDS) was also asked to be removed from office but he won his case and will stay on as mayor.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 18, 2020, 05:43:34 PM
CESOP-UCP poll for RTP/Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/sondagem-da-catolica-ps-e-psd-separados-por-7-nas-estimativas-de-resultados-eleitorais-nas-legislativas_n1283758)

Vote share %:

37% PS (-2)
30% PSD (+4)
  7% BE (nc)
  7% CDU (+1)
  6% CHEGA (-1)
  5% IL (+2)
  3% CDS (nc)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% Others/Invalid (-4)

Poll conducted between 4 and 11 December 2020. Polled 1,315 voters. MoE of 2.70%.

Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:  (https://www.msn.com/pt-pt/noticias/portugal/elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es-presidenciais-marcelo-vence-%C3%A0-primeira-volta-com-68-9-dos-votos-na-sondagem-da-tvi/ar-BB1c2VWU?ocid=msedgdhp)

Vote share %:

68.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
11.0% Ana Gomes
  9.0% André Ventura
  6.5% Marisa Matias
  3.5% João Ferreira
  0.9% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
  0.2% Others

Poll conducted between 10 and 13 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 19, 2020, 07:23:32 AM
More polling:

Eurosondagem poll for Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/ana-gomes-descola-de-ventura-e-marcelo-ganha-com-625-diz-eurosondagem)

Vote share %:

62.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.6)
13.3% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
10.5% André Ventura (+0.5)
  6.7% Marisa Matias (-0.5)
  5.0% João Ferreira (nc)
  2.0% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.7)
  0.0% Other candidates (-3.3)

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 December 2020. Polled 2,020 voters. MoE of 2.18%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 19, 2020, 08:01:15 AM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:  (https://www.msn.com/pt-pt/noticias/portugal/elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es-presidenciais-marcelo-vence-%C3%A0-primeira-volta-com-68-9-dos-votos-na-sondagem-da-tvi/ar-BB1c2VWU?ocid=msedgdhp)

Vote share %:

68.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
11.0% Ana Gomes
  9.0% André Ventura
  6.5% Marisa Matias
  3.5% João Ferreira
  0.9% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
  0.2% Others

Poll conducted between 10 and 13 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.

Candidates vote by party:

PS: 67.3% Marcelo; 15.7% Gomes; 1.6% Matias
PSD: 67.8% Marcelo; 9.9% Ventura; 4.6% Gomes
BE: 49.0% Matias; 23.5% Marcelo; 9.8% Matias
CDU: 68.0% Ferreira; 20.0% Marcelo; 8.0% Ventura
CDS: 36.8% Marcelo; 26.3% Ventura; 5.3% Mayan Gonçalves

Numbers a bit different compared with the RTP poll. However, Marisa Matias, like the RTP poll, isn't polling well within her own electorate, and CDS is really divided. Also, Ventura is able to attract 8% of the Communist electorate.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 19, 2020, 06:06:48 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Tino de Rans says he has more than the 7,500 signatures needed to be on the ballot.


Quote
Tino de Rans already has the signatures to run for President of the Republic

Vitorino Silva, aka Tino de Rans, leader of the RIR ("laugh" in Portuguese) party has announced he already has more than 7,500 signatures in order to be on the ballot. He says that he will deliver his signatures to the Court early next week. The deadline is 24 December. Tino de Rans, however, criticizes the media for not inviting him for the debates, like in 2016, and that this creates an "unequal" race.

With Tino de Rans announcing that he will deliver his signatures, probably 7 candidates will be on the ballot, unless some of the lesser known independents can gather the necessary signatures.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 19, 2020, 06:38:01 PM
Given the party name I imagine Tino de Rans is a satirical candidate?

The Pitagórica poll paints a somewhat different cross-party situation, yeah. And Ventura taking so many CDS votes..

How serious do the accusations into Rui Moreira look? And will the mayoral election be in October regardless of whether or not he gest removed?
I wonder what the electoral scenarios are for this. I remember you saying that Porto has been trending to the right much lately, but I guess local elections are a different story.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 19, 2020, 07:30:12 PM
Given the party name I imagine Tino de Rans is a satirical candidate?

The Pitagórica poll paints a somewhat different cross-party situation, yeah. And Ventura taking so many CDS votes..

How serious do the accusations into Rui Moreira look? And will the mayoral election be in October regardless of whether or not he gest removed?
I wonder what the electoral scenarios are for this. I remember you saying that Porto has been trending to the right much lately, but I guess local elections are a different story.

1. Everyone is Portugal knows the great Tino. ;) But, yeah, he's a satirical/a bit anti-system candidate and party leader that has had relative success, let's say: he polled 3.3% in the 2016 presidential elections, just 0.6% behind the PCP candidate and got 0.7% in the 2019 general elections, which may seem small but he was just 5,000 votes behind Santana Lopes's Alliance party. Tino de Rans was President of Rans parish, Penafiel-Porto district, from the PS and he became a national figure after his hilarious/weird speech in the PS 1999 national congress:


After that, he became famous instantly and was a regular guest in talkshows, TV contests and reality TV shows like Celebrity Big Brother. He works as a paver, and he indeed worked for Porto city hall, during a period. (https://www.porto.pt/pt/noticia/tino-de-rans-o-calceiteiro-mais-famoso-do-pais)

2. The DA office asks several times for the removal of many mayors, but when the cases reach courts, in the majority of cases the mayors are allowed to remain in office. So, I would be very much surprised if Moreira is thrown out of office. Now, the case itself. (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/pais/1650141/presidente-da-camara-do-porto-acusado-de-prevaricacao-no-caso-selminho) The case goes back to 2001, when Moreira's family real estate company, Selminho, bought a piece of land in Porto city with a view to the river and the sea. But, the sketchy part start here: the signing of the deal was registered in Montalegre, a village near the border with Spain, plus then a legal dispute started with Porto city hall as the city said no building could be built there, which dragged on for years in Court. It was steeled in 2013, when the city accepted construction in the soil. However, there were errors in the measures in the size of the land and in 2017, another legal battle started which ended with the Courts nullifying the 2001 land bought. Moreira is accused by the DA of trying to use his influence to protect his family business. This has haunted Moreira during the last 8 years, his 2 terms in office, but like I said above, I doubt he will be removed from office because of this. Yes, the case is sketchy, but I think he will survive.

In a scenario in which he's indeed removed, the main beneficiaries are PSD and PS. The PS is out of power in Porto since 2001, and Moreira is very popular and particularly on the right. Moreira out of the race would improve the PS chances of winning Porto back. But, the PSD would also be happy with Moreira's removal, because although Moreira basically gathers all of the rightwing vote in the city, the PSD hates his guts even though it was the current PSD leader, Rui Rio, who basically got Moreira elected in 2013, when he refused to support his then "nemesis" in the party, Luís Filipe Menezes, in the race for mayor. Since then, Rio and Moreira became bitter enemies, so the PSD would also be happy as it means they would also have a chance in controlling the city again. Yes, if he's removed from office, his deputy would take over and in next year's local elections, a new mayor would be elected.

Porto has been trending to right in recent elections and it has been voting more to the right compared with the country as a whole. The paterns for national and local elections are quite similar, with Moreira, like I said above, gathering a big amount of the PSD/CDS vote in general elections. In 2017, the PSD candidate only got 10% of the votes, for example.

Again, I may be wrong but I doubt Moreira will be removed from office. I would be very surprised by it. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 20, 2020, 07:42:51 AM
CHEGA-Azores headquarters vandalized during the early hours of the morning this Sunday:


Quote
CHEGA Azores headquarters vandalized

The CHEGA party in the Azores said that their party headquarters was vandalized during the early hours of Sunday. Someone, or a some group, drew a smile in the front door of the headquarters and wrote the word "Badalhoca", which can be translated to filthy, in the facade of the building. The party has already condemned the act saying that they don't understand why in a democratic society acts like this happen, adding that this isn't the first time as they say that during the regional election campaign, many of their election posters were destroyed.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 20, 2020, 09:07:14 PM
Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/infograficos/detalhe/20201221-0048-sondagem-intencao-de-voto-agora-e-comparacao-com-os-resultados-de-novembro)

Vote share %:

38.0% PS (+0.9)
23.6% PSD (-0.6)
  7.7% CHEGA (+0.4)
  7.3% BE (-0.4)
  5.4% CDU (+0.5)
  4.5% IL (+1.2)
  3.4% PAN (-1.9)
  3.2% CDS (-0.9)
  0.9% Livre (-0.9)
  1.1% Others (-0.5)
  4.9% Blank/Invalid (+2.1)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.6 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (nc)
3.3 António Costa (+0.1)
2.9 Rui Rio (nc)
2.8 André Silva (-0.1)
2.7 Catarina Martins (-0.3)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.2)
2.5 Jerónino de Sousa (-0.2)
2.2 André Ventura (+0.2)
2.0 Joacine Katar Moreira (nc)

Poll conducted between 14 and 18 December 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2020, 02:06:34 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Marine Le Pen will attend a CHEGA rally on January 10.


Quote
Presidentials. André Ventura and Marine Le Pen together in Lisbon at the start of the election campaign

CHEGA informed the media, today, that Marine Le Pen, leader of RN, will be in Lisbon on January 10 to kick start Ventura's presidential campaign alongside Ventura himself. The model of the rally is still being studied, due to Covid-19 restrictions, the party adds.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Farmlands on December 21, 2020, 07:34:25 PM
Numbers a bit different compared with the RTP poll. However, Marisa Matias, like the RTP poll, isn't polling well within her own electorate, and CDS is really divided. Also, Ventura is able to attract 8% of the Communist electorate.

You can count me in as a BE-Marcelo voter. I strongly respect both the man and the job he's been doing so far. As for Ventura, it's exactly what's happening in other parts of the world, with rural voters taking a hard turn towards nationalist parties recently, though a much slower shift here.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2020, 08:13:01 PM
Numbers a bit different compared with the RTP poll. However, Marisa Matias, like the RTP poll, isn't polling well within her own electorate, and CDS is really divided. Also, Ventura is able to attract 8% of the Communist electorate.

You can count me in as a BE-Marcelo voter. I strongly respect both the man and the job he's been doing so far. As for Ventura, it's exactly what's happening in other parts of the world, with rural voters taking a hard turn towards nationalist parties recently, though a much slower shift here.
I'm still leaning towards Ana Gomes, although her latest speeches made me move a bit more to the undecided column. I like her anti-corruption speech and that's why I'm more inclined to vote for her. But, there's still a long time until election day. Also, like you said, about Ventura strength in rural areas, I'm very curious to see what his share will be in the South. I will post the poll when details are available, but it seems that the Intercampus poll puts the PCP candidate just 0.1% ahead of the IL candidate. Disaster for the PCP if it plays out.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 22, 2020, 06:02:15 AM
I will post the poll when details are available, but it seems that the Intercampus poll puts the PCP candidate just 0.1% ahead of the IL candidate. Disaster for the PCP if it plays out.

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-12-22-Nova-sondagem-para-as-presidenciais.-Marcelo-e-Ventura-sobem-Ana-Gomes-e-Marisa-Matias-em-queda)

Vote share %:

58.4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+1.8 )
12.1% Ana Gomes (-4.0)
10.9% André Ventura (+0.4)
  4.5% Marisa Matias (-4.2)
  3.3% João Ferreira (+1.0)
  3.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.6)
  7.6% Others (+3.4)

Poll conducted between 14 and 18 December 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 22, 2020, 09:34:49 AM
A man attacks the mayor of Abrantes, Santarém district, during a city council meeting:  (https://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/santarem/abrantes/cidadao-agride-presidente-da-camara-com-cajado-em-reuniao-municipal-13164513.html)




A man attacked the mayor, his deputy and a city hall employee of Abrantes city, Santarém, during a council meeting. The meeting was being recorded live on social media and the audio of the incident was taped. The image video was blocked just before the man attacked the mayor. According to Jornal de Notícias, the mayor was struck by a cane which cut his lip, while his deputy was hurt in his arm. An city employee was also shoved by the attacker. All 3 were assisted by medical staff while the attacker was detained by the police. It seems the attacker is in a legal dispute with Abrantes city hall, as he accuses the city for bankrupting his business. The Courts have already acquitted the city hall, but the man in question isn't accepting the verdict.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 22, 2020, 01:08:38 PM
President Marcelo tries to force the dismissal of Eduardo Cabrita and basically says that the Health minister deceived the country about flu vaccines on a TV interview:


Quote
Marcelo pressures Cabrita: "Minister did not ask for resignation", like Constança Urbano Sousa

In an interview to TVI network, the President talked about the big issues facing the country right now. Surrounding the ongoing scandal of the killing of an Ukrainian citizen by border patrol agents, the President continued to press, although not directly, for the resignation of the current internal affairs minister Eduardo Cabrita, citting the example his predecessor, Constança Urbano Sousa, during the 2017 wildfires. Marcelo also said he was deceived like the Portuguese people as a whole, because of the shortage of flu vaccines because he trusted the word of the Health minister, Marta Temido. For the Covid-19 vaccine plan, the President said he did not just take the word of the minister for granted, but also talked personally with Pfizer representatives in Portugal to assure nothing goes off track.

He also explained how he will spent Christmas and this is creating some controversy. The President said he will have 3 different meals with different family members during the next 3 days, but all of the gatherings will have a maximum around of 5 people. However, many doctors say the President is clearly violation the Health authorities rules adding that what the President is planning to do isn't safe.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 23, 2020, 10:17:31 AM
2021 Presidential elections: President Marcelo delivers his signatures to be on the ballot, as it seems that 8 candidates will be on the ballot.


Quote
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa plans to spend 25,000 euros on the election campaign

President Marcelo delivered 12,000+ signatures to the Constitutional Court in order to be on the ballot for the January election. The President talked to reporters after delivering the signatures to the Court and said his campaign will be a positive one, adding he's the candidate for "stabilization, pacification and compromise". He also said his campaign will have no election posters, propaganda or rallies, stressing that his campaign budget is just 25,000 euros, with operational costs having the lion share.

Before Marcelo delivered his signatures, an Independent candidate, Eduardo Baptista, delivered his signatures also. Ana Gomes and Tino de Rans will deliver their signatures during today's afternoon, while Tiago Mayan Gonçalves is expected to deliver his signatures tomorrow, the deadline to file signatures. All points that there will be 8 candidates in the ballot.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 23, 2020, 02:02:51 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Parliament will decide next week the suspension of Ventura as MP in order to run for President.


Quote
Commission decides Tuesday request for temporary suspension of André Ventura

CHEGA leader and MP André Ventura has asked for a temporary suspension of his seat in Parliament in order to run for the Presidency of the Republic. The decision will be made by the Parliamentary Transparency Committee and a ruling is expected by next Tuesday. However, all of this is controversial. Ventura says he wants more freedom in order to run for President and he's using the electoral law for the Presidency which says that any candidate can suspend their current office, private or public, in order to run. But, Parliamentary rules says that a MP can only ask for a temporary suspension due to "relevant reasons", like serious disease, paternity leave or judicial issues. Ventura also said that if the Committee doesn't approve his suspension, he will appeal to Constitutional Court with urgency. A legal war could last a bit.

If Ventura suspension is approved, he will be replaced by the number 2 in the Lisbon list for CHEGA, Diogo Pacheco de Amorim. Mr Amorim, 71 years old, is a rightwing ideologue who after the 1974 revolution (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/politica/2020-12-23-das-bombas-de-75-ao-parlamento-quem-e-e-como-pensa-diogo-pacheco-de-amorim-ue-pode-vir-a-substiuir-ventura/) joined the right-wing/far-right militia Democratic Movement for the Liberation of Portugal (MDLP), but then joined the AD government (1979-1983) as secretary for the deputy PM Freitas do Amaral. He then joined the CDS but left the party in the early 2000's for the rightwing PND led by Manuel Monteiro. However, his temporary rise as a MP is being received with worry by CHEGA because of his past as a far-right militant and his almost zero experience in Parliamentary procedures and debates.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 23, 2020, 06:37:21 PM
Chaos and violence in a CHEGA local party meeting in Santarém district:


Quote
Vega's meeting in Santarém was interrupted by assaults between militants. Police identified five people

The meeting was almost 3 weeks ago, but the media is reporting the total chaos that meeting was. On December 5th, 12 CHEGA members were invited to discuss the party's strategy for the local elections in Santarém district. The meeting was held in Santarém city. However, 3 non invited members showed up also and refused to leave the meeting, and then hell broke. One woman started beating one party member and several members started shouting against each other. The same woman had to be grabbed in order to not hit in another party member. The police was called, but the authorities say the situation was a bit worse as they were forced to identify 5 people and that 2 people had been beaten up.

This party is just a hot mess. Also, Santarém district is quite on fire: the CHEGA chaotic meeting and the Abrantes mayor attack.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 26, 2020, 01:08:26 PM
2021 Presidential election: Court will announce full list of candidates next Monday, as President Marcelo schedules a debate with Tino de Rans:


Quote
Presidentials: TC closes official list to Belém on Monday. Debates may go beyond expected

The exclusion of Tino de Rans from the debates is making some candidates to criticize TV networks for not including him. Tiago Maya and Ana Gomes have both said they are willing to debate with Tino de Rans and that he should be included in the TV debates. The 3 main networks, RTP, SIC and TVI, refused to change the current debate format. President Marcelo went even further and scheduled a debate between him and Tino de Rans on January 20 on Porto Canal. At the same time, the Constitutional Court will announce on Monday the list of candidates that delivered signatures and order them in the ballot. During the week, the Court will also review the signatures and see if the signatures are valid or enough.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 26, 2020, 02:49:12 PM
2021 Presidential election: Candidates campaign budgets.  (https://expresso.pt/presidenciais-2021/2020-12-26-Candidatos-presidenciais-planeiam-gastar-pelo-menos-740-mil-euros.-Joao-Ferreira-gasta-mais-Tino-de-Rans-e-o-mais-poupado)

450,000€ João Ferreira
256,000€ Marisa Matias
160,000€ André Ventura
  50,000€ Ana Gomes
  40,000€ Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
  25,000€ Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  16,000€ Tino de Rans

This election will be the cheapest in Portuguese democracy, with the total projected expenditure of all candidates below 1 million euros.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 27, 2020, 03:43:09 PM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:  (https://tvi24.iol.pt/politica/presidenciais-2021/sondagem-eleicoes-presidenciais-marcelo-vence-mas-ha-luta-pelo-segundo-lugar)

Vote share %:

68.0% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.9)
10.9% Ana Gomes (-0.1)
10.7% André Ventura (+1.7)
   5.1% Marisa Matias (-1.4)
   3.5% João Ferreira (nc)
   1.0% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
   0.8% Tino de Rans (new)
   0.0% Others (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.

Also, cool diagrams from Observador newspaper regarding the poll:

https://observador.pt/interativo/sondagens-eleicoes-presidenciais-2021/


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 28, 2020, 10:06:06 AM
2021 Presidential election: Marisa Matias fractured her ribs and was rushed to hospital and will have to adapt her campaign for the next few days.


Quote
"A fall caused my ribs to fracture." Marisa Matias continues campaigning in an adapted way

BE candidate, Marisa Matias, had to be assisted in Aveiro Hospital due to fall she suffered on Sunday that fractured some of her ribs. The candidate announced the incident of social media and thanked all the NHS professionals that assisted her. She also added that her campaign will suffer adjustments due to her fall. At the same time, she also announced her campaign will spend 256,000 euros in the race. (full details of candidates budgets in a post above).

Also, the Constitutional Court announced it received 8 candidacies, but it seems that only 7 will be approved in the end:


Quote
Presidentials. Marcelo in third place in the ballot order and Ana Gomes in last

The Court announced that 8 candidates delivered signatures in order to be on the ballot. The Court then raffled the names of the candidates to order them in the ballot, and the order is the following: Eduardo Baptista, Marisa Matias, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, André Ventura, Tino de Rans, João Ferreira and Ana Gomes. The Court will now review all of the papers and signatures sent by the candidates and after this, it's expected that the number of candidates will drop to 7 as it seems that candidate Eduardo Baptista only delivered a handful of signatures.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 28, 2020, 01:36:18 PM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:  (https://observador.pt/interativo/sondagens-eleicoes-presidenciais-2021/)

Vote share %: (compared with the poll conducted between 10-13 December 2020)

40.3% PS (-1.6)
28.5% PSD (+2.5)
   8.4% CHEGA (+0.1)
   5.5% BE (-1.2)
   5.3% CDU (-0.2)
   2.4% IL (+0.9)
   2.2% PAN (-0.1)
   1.8% CDS (-0.1)
   5.5% Others/Invalid (-0.5)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 29, 2020, 12:38:03 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Court accepts five candidacies and asks Ventura and Tiago Mayan to correct irregularities:


Quote
André Ventura and Tiago Mayan have flaws in their candidacies applications.

The Constitutional Court was already approved 5 candidacies, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Marisa Matias, Ana Gomes, João Ferreira and Tino de Rans, and has asked two candidates, André Ventura and Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, to correct irregularities in their candidacies. The Court says that Ventura didn't wrote his profession in the papers and Tiago Mayan needs to attach 1,500 registration certificates that are missing. Both candidates have 2 days to correct these irregularities. The other candidate, Eduardo Baptista, has been rejected by the Court for insufficient signatures, he only delivered 11 out of the 7,500 signatures necessary.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 29, 2020, 01:18:23 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Parliament rejects, for now, André Ventura's request to be substituted in Parliament in order to run for President.


Quote
Parliament rejects the suspension of mandate of MP André Ventura

After the Court ruling demanding that Ventura has to correct some irregularities in his candidacy papers, he suffered another blow, altough it could be temporary. The Parliamentary Transparency Committee has rejected Ventura's request to suspend his term in order to run for President, and be substituted by the number 2 in CHEGA's Lisbon list. The PS, PSD, BE and PCP rejected the report made by CDS MP, João Ferreira, that said the the Presidential election law is superior than Parliament rules and that Parliament shouldn't give excuses for Ventura to victimize himself. The committee will meet again next week to analyse another report, this time made by a PS MP. CDS and PAN voted in favour and 3 PS MPs also voted in favour against the party's official line. The PSD rejected the request because Parliament rules have to be clear and they will present changes in the rules later today.

However, Ventura did say this, in February 2020, about a possible suspension of his seat in order to run for President:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/eleicoes-presidenciais/2020-12-22-Presidenciais.-Andre-Ventura-garantiu-em-fevereiro-que-nao-iria-suspender-mandato-de-deputado)
Quote
I will work on my presidential candidacy without ever forgetting that my first obligation is in parliament. I will not suspend my mandate and will therefore continue to exercise the functions for which I was elected

Nothing new, coming from him, but still awkward...


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 29, 2020, 06:07:18 PM
2021 presidential debates: RTP will host debates with Tino de Rans as Porto Canal also scheduled several debates.


Quote
Politics - RTP extends political debates in presidential elections to include "Tino de Rans". SIC and TVI no change...

After several candidates and even pundits pressured TV networks to make space for Tino de Rans in the debates, RTP has accepted Tino in their all candidates debates and will also host a series of debates between Tino and the other candidates and they will be broadcast on RTP3 at 11:45pm between 4 and 9 January. Porto Canal will also host several debates between the candidates and was the first channel to include Tino de Rans in the debates. SIC and TVI decided to make no changes in their debate plans.

Tino de Rans was also received today by his "boss", Porto mayor Rui Moreira in Porto city hall:

Quote
Porto never closes its doors to anyone. #RuiMoreira #Porto
I knew he was a paver for Porto city hall, but didn't knew he was still working for the city.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 30, 2020, 07:01:08 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Candidate that only delivered 11 signatures will be on the ballot, but all his votes will be considered invalid.


Quote
Ballot papers will even be headed by candidate who will not run

This situation is being criticized by pundits and analysts which accuse the Court and the Government of playing with serious things. Because early voting will start in just 2 weeks and half, ballots are already being printed well before the Court deadline to check if candidates delivered all of the adequate documents and required signatures. Because of this, candidate Eduardo Baptista, who only delivered 11 signatures, will still be on the ballot but his votes will be counted as invalid.

IMO, ridiculous situation. Why didn't they anticipated the deadline to deliver signatures a week or so? Not to mention that the rules to run for President, 7,500 signatures on paper, are also being criticized for their almost medieval manner.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 30, 2020, 07:15:56 PM
Eurosondagem poll on the electoral system:  (https://www.publico.pt/2020/12/30/politica/noticia/maioria-portugueses-querem-eleger-deputado-1944695)

Q1: Do you agree with the current proportional electoral system by electing MPs by district?

60.3% No
22.5% Yes
17.2% Undecided

Q2: Would you like to elect your own MP by a majority system (FPTP)?

65.3% Yes
20.0% No
14.8% Undecided

Q3: What electoral system would you prefer?

47.3% Mixed system
25.0% First-past-the-post
16.9% The current proportional system
  0.7% Other
10.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 18 and 20 December 2020. Polled 1,033 voters. MoE of 3.05%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 31, 2020, 06:39:14 AM
Government accused of falsifying the CV of their chosen candidate for Portugal's European Prosecutor:


Quote
Government gave false information to the EU in choosing the European prosecutor

The government's chosen candidate for Portugal's European Prosecutor, José Guerra, had his CV falsified by the government, according to RTP and SIC networks. The original candidate, chosen by an international committee, Ana Mendes de Almeida was rejected by the government, so a letter was sent to the European Commission asking them to accept Justice José Guerra because of 3 important points in his CV. But, the Attorney-General office sent a letter saying all 3 reasons pointed in Justice Guerra CV are false. Justice Guerra said he had no responsibility in the making of the letter to the EU but refused any more comments. The Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, is also refusing to comment the controversy. In the EU, of the 19 countries, only Portugal, Bulgaria and Belgium refused the international committees decisions and nominated their own candidate. The opposition is already demanding explanation, calling this episode "very serious".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 31, 2020, 07:12:07 AM
Aximage poll for TSF radio/JN and DN newspapers on TAP and Eduardo Cabrita position:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/portugueses-divididos-mas-dispostos-a-pagar-o-preco-de-salvar-a-tap-13184821.html)

Q1: What's your view regarding the current situation of TAP airlines?

42% Save it with public money
37% Let it go Bankrupt
21% Undecided

Q2: Does the Interior Minister, Eduardo Cabrita, has conditions to stay in cabinet in the light of the SEF scandal?

65% No
24% Yes
11% Undecided

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 December 2020. Polled 812 voters. MoE of 3.40%.

Some interesting points: Regarding the future of TAP, there's a deep generational divide with younger voters wainting to let TAP go bankrupt, but older voters want to save it with public money. In terms of regions, the North is also against saving TAP. Regarding Eduardo Cabrita, all parties demand his resignation and even 52% of PS voters.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 31, 2020, 12:05:36 PM

However, Ventura did say this, in February 2020, about a possible suspension of his seat in order to run for President:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/eleicoes-presidenciais/2020-12-22-Presidenciais.-Andre-Ventura-garantiu-em-fevereiro-que-nao-iria-suspender-mandato-de-deputado)
Quote
I will work on my presidential candidacy without ever forgetting that my first obligation is in parliament. I will not suspend my mandate and will therefore continue to exercise the functions for which I was elected

Nothing new, coming from him, but still awkward...

I'm both surprised and unsurprised that Ventura manages to break his promises and his words on *everything*

Quote
Government gave false information to the EU in choosing the European prosecutor

The government's chosen candidate for Portugal's European Prosecutor, José Guerra, had his CV falsified by the government, according to RTP and SIC networks. The original candidate, chosen by an international committee, Ana Mendes de Almeida was rejected by the government, so a letter was sent to the European Commission asking them to accept Justice José Guerra because of 3 important points in his CV. But, the Attorney-General office sent a letter saying all 3 reasons pointed in Justice Guerra CV are false. Justice Guerra said he had no responsibility in the making of the letter to the EU but refused any more comments. The Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, is also refusing to comment the controversy. In the EU, of the 19 countries, only Portugal, Bulgaria and Belgium refused the international committees decisions and nominated their own candidate. The opposition is already demanding explanation, calling this episode "very serious".

Big oops from whoever member of the government did this. Like, why?
Speaking of which, why was Mendes de Almeida rejected in the first place?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on December 31, 2020, 12:40:04 PM
Quote
Government gave false information to the EU in choosing the European prosecutor

The government's chosen candidate for Portugal's European Prosecutor, José Guerra, had his CV falsified by the government, according to RTP and SIC networks. The original candidate, chosen by an international committee, Ana Mendes de Almeida was rejected by the government, so a letter was sent to the European Commission asking them to accept Justice José Guerra because of 3 important points in his CV. But, the Attorney-General office sent a letter saying all 3 reasons pointed in Justice Guerra CV are false. Justice Guerra said he had no responsibility in the making of the letter to the EU but refused any more comments. The Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, is also refusing to comment the controversy. In the EU, of the 19 countries, only Portugal, Bulgaria and Belgium refused the international committees decisions and nominated their own candidate. The opposition is already demanding explanation, calling this episode "very serious".

Big oops from whoever member of the government did this. Like, why?
Speaking of which, why was Mendes de Almeida rejected in the first place?
It seems it was the Justice ministry that sent the letter, but the reasons for it are anybody's guess. What's weird is that many of Justice Guerra CV forgeries, are actual roles Justice Mendes de Almeida played in the Portuguese Justice system. Guerra says it must be an "error", however no one would make an "error" of this scale. But, at the same time, the Justice minister republished the CV of Justice Guerra and none of the "errors" are now present in this new CV published.  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/governo-responde-a-polemica-e-divulga-cv-do-procurador-jose-guerra-13185981.html)

Like I said, no one knows why they did this. This looks like they really wanted one person to be selected, it wasn't so they force it and in the process faked some info. We'll see if there's more updates in this story.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 02, 2021, 07:46:19 AM
Aximage poll for TSF radio/JN and DN newspapers:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/frente-a-frente-costa-muito-acima-de-rio-na-avaliacao-dos-portugueses-13188650.html)

Vote share %:

38.5% PS (+1.3)
25.4% PSD (+1.5)
   8.5% BE (+0.6)
   7.7% CHEGA (+0.2)
   5.7% CDU (-0.1)
   4.7% PAN (-1.8 )
   3.5% IL (+1.2)
   0.5% Livre (-0.1)
   0.3% CDS (-0.7)  
   5.2% Others/Invalid (-2.2)

Preferred PM:

53% António Costa (+3)
19% Rui Rio (+1)
22% Neither
  4% Both
  7% Undecided

Government's approval rating:

47% Approve (-4)
31% Disapprove (-2)
19% Average (+7)
  3% Undecided (-1)

President of the Republic approval rating:

62% Approve (-12)
22% Disapprove (+13)
14% Average (nc)
  3% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 December 2020. Polled 812 voters. MoE of 3.40%.

Some crosstabs of the poll: PSD wins the youth vote, slightly, while the PS wins the rest of voters in all ages; Men are a bit split between PS and PSD, while Women vote PS by a margin of 20% over the PSD. In terms of regions, PSD and PS tie in the North, while the PS wins comfortably all other regions. Also, the CDS results, Yikes! however Aximage does have a history of underpolling CDS by a lot but, nonetheless, follows the trend that the party is disappearing.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 02, 2021, 12:53:54 PM
2021 Presidential debates start today:


Quote
Presidential debates kick off today! João Ferreira - André Ventura, starting at 22:00, on TVI24

Quote
But in these elections the debate of ideas is important, so the journalist Carlos Daniel will moderate five debates between candidates for the Presidential Elections in a simultaneous RTP1 and RTP3. Today (2 January): Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa / Marisa Matias

The Presidential election debates start this evening with Marcelo vs Marisa Matias on RTP1 and Ventura vs João Ferreira on TVI24. Until January 9th, several one on one debates will occur with an all candidates debate schedule for January 12 on RTP1.

Voters are now starting to ask to vote early, with prisoners and people hospitalized having until Monday to ask for a ballot. Beginning next Sunday, between 10 and 14 January, voters will able to register to cast an early ballot on January 17.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 02, 2021, 05:55:11 PM
As expected, the Ventura vs Ferreira debate on TVI was a trainwreck. Both candidates shouting against each other at the same time, a bit chaotic, Ventura accusing PCP of defending Venezuela and North Korea and Ferreira accusing Ventura of being financed by big business.

At the same time, it seems that the websites of PCP and João Ferreira went down during and after the debate,  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/sites-do-candidato-a-presidencia-joao-ferreira-e-do-pcp-indisponiveis-durante-debate-com-andre-ventura)as Ventura accused the party of having references towards Lenine and dictatorial states in their website.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 03, 2021, 03:07:37 PM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:  (https://tvi24.iol.pt/videos/politica/sondagem-tvi-observador-marcelo-a-descer-nas-intencoes-de-voto/5ff21ec90cf2c785555a9bd1)

Vote share %:

66.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.5)
13.0% Ana Gomes (+2.1)
10.6% André Ventura (-0.1)
  4.5% Marisa Matias (-0.6)
  2.8% João Ferreira (-0.7)
  1.7% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.7)
  0.8% Tino de Rans (nc)

Poll conducted between 17 and 27 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 03, 2021, 08:53:54 PM
CDS leader will file complaint against Aximage polling company because of the share it gives to the party:


Quote
Leader will complain to the ERC of the survey that puts the CDS near its end

This weekend's Aximage poll raised eyebrows for the almost 0% share it gives to CDS. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, was furious with polling company accusing it of antics, tricks and of having very little technical rigor. He said the party would file a complaint to the media regulator against the polling company. Rodrigues dos Santos also trashed Aximage polling director Almeida Ribeiro, a former secretary of state under PM José Sócrates and advisor of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, saying they should be ashamed of themselves and recalled the controversy where Mr Ribeiro was accused, during the 2020 Benfica elections, of hyping poll results in favour of Luís Filipe Vieira.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2021, 06:51:25 AM
Aximage poll for TSF radio/JN and DN newspapers:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-intencao-de-voto-para-as-presidenciais-13191662.html)

Vote share %:

61.4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.7)
15.4% Ana Gomes (-0.9)
  8.0% André Ventura (+1.4)
  7.5% João Ferreira (+5.4)
  5.6% Marisa Matias (-0.3)
  1.1% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (nc)
  1.0% Blank/Invalid (-1.1)

38.5% Turnout (-4.3)

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 December 2020. Polled 812 voters. MoE of 3.40%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2021, 09:39:06 AM
The "CV scandal" creates its first victim: Director of the Judicial Policy resigns but says the minister knew everything from the start.


Quote
European prosecutor's resume. Director-General for Justice Policy resigns

The Justice minister has accepted the resignation of the Director-General for Justice Policy, Miguel Romão, in the Justice ministry after the press revealed that the Government had faked the CV of Portugal's candidate for European prosecutor. However, Mr Romão says that the forgery of the CV was of the full knowledge of the Minister Van Dunem since the beginning. He adds that although he didn't had direct responsibility but that it was his duty as he as the head of administrative staff. Nonetheless, pundits, parties and the media are pressuring the minister of Justice. On RTP, this weekend, the minister said the case has been "exaggerated" and that it was just a mistake, adding that Justice Guerra was the best candidate for the job. Many pundits aren't buying the minister's explanations and say she is in a very precarious situation, adding that the government continues to not accept responsibility for their own mistakes.

Also, there will be a debate this evening between Tino de Rans and Ventura on RTP3. If it goes down like the Ventura-Ferreira debate on TVI, get ready for trainwreck 2.0.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2021, 11:00:21 AM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:  (https://observador.pt/interativo/sondagens-eleicoes-presidenciais-2021/)

Vote share %:

39.7% PS (-0.6)
27.9% PSD (-0.6)
  9.1% CHEGA (+0.7)
  5.6% BE (+0.1)
  4.1% CDU (-1.2)
  3.3% IL (+0.9)
  2.3% CDS (+0.5)
  1.7% PAN (-0.5)
  6.2% Others/Invalid (+0.7)

Poll conducted between 17 and 27 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

So many polls, lately. ;)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2021, 05:45:28 PM
PM Costa secures his Justice Minister and labels the current controversy as "slips without relevance":


Quote
António Costa expresses "total political trust" in the Minister of Justice

After a day where the Justice minister was criticized by almost everybody, from left to right, PM Costa sent a press realease to the media saying he has full political trust in the Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, adding that there were just "two lapses without relevance, by the way, for the selection process". He adds that the process of picking the candidate from Portugal was done by the book and respected a selection made by Superior Council of the Public Ministry.

At the same time, some media outlets are reporting that the candidate chosen by the International committee, Justice Ana Carla Almeida, is part of the judicial team investigating the facts surrounding the "anti-fire masks scandal" (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/politica/2021-01-04-o-estranho-caso-do-comunicado-fantasma-que-poe-a-ministra-da-justica-em-xeque/) that led to the resignation of the secretary of internal affairs just 3 weeks before the  2019 elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2021, 09:35:49 PM
The viral moment when, during the debate, Tino de Rans puts rocks in the table he caught from a beach in Peniche:


Ventura's face is priceless. But what was Tino trying to say? Well, that the sea brings rocks of all colours and sizes, just like there are people with different colours and beliefs, but that the sea also brings "people" who want to built walls.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: njwes on January 04, 2021, 10:18:51 PM
The viral moment when, during the debate, Tino de Rans puts rocks in the table he caught from a beach in Peniche:


Ventura's face is priceless. But what was Tino trying to say? Well, that the sea brings rocks of all colours and sizes, just like there are people with different colours and beliefs, but that the sea also brings "people" who want to built walls.


........how do you think the average politicaly-interested Portuguese citizen would react to that? Like I'm sure that there's a big online contingent going "yaaaass kween!" but (at least to me as an American) this sounds incredibly cringey, trite, overly dramatic, and patronizing.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 05, 2021, 06:04:47 AM
........how do you think the average politicaly-interested Portuguese citizen would react to that? Like I'm sure that there's a big online contingent going "yaaaass kween!" but (at least to me as an American) this sounds incredibly cringey, trite, overly dramatic, and patronizing.
It's being interpreted like an act the clearly differences Tino and Ventura. Ventura does have a tone against some minorities and Tino used the "rock metafore" to say he doesn't see differences in people like Ventura. Yes, it was a bit of an awkward moment, but Tino de Rans is known for these kind of awkward moments, he became famous because of weird situations and he also works as a paver, so he has a link with rocks. ;). Some pundits even say that it made Ventura feel uncomfortable and not knowing how to respond.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 05, 2021, 12:55:59 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Court rejects Ventura's appeal and Parliament once again rejects his substitution as a MP in order to run for President.


Quote
Presidential: Parliament rejects temporary replacement of Ventura

Parliament has rejected, once again, Ventura's proposal to be substituted as a MP with the number 2 of CHEGA's list for Lisbon. The new report, done by a PS MP, says the current Parliamentary rules and laws forbid a MP to be substituted because of the reasons evoked by Ventura, but they will justify automatically all absences by Ventura during Parliamentary sessions. The parties that rejected Ventura's appeal were, once again, PS, PSD, BE and PCP. PAN and CDS were willing, again, to give Ventura a pass. At the same time, the PSD is proposing changes in the rules to make it easier for MPs to be substituted.

Ventura also saw, today, his appeal to the Supreme Administrative Court rejected. (https://expresso.pt/presidenciais-2021/2021-01-05-Supremo-recusa-acao-de-Ventura-para-obrigar-Ferro-a-decidir-sobre-suspensao-de-mandato) Ventura wanted the Court to force Speaker Ferro Rodrigues to decide his situation as a MP running for President. But the Court ruled that this is not a matter of Courts decision and it's exclusively a Parliamentary one, thus being incompetent to rule any decision.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 05, 2021, 03:29:30 PM

This weekend's Aximage poll raised eyebrows for the almost 0% share it gives to CDS. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, was furious with polling company accusing it of antics, tricks and of having very little technical rigor. He said the party would file a complaint to the media regulator against the polling company. Rodrigues dos Santos also trashed Aximage polling director Almeida Ribeiro, a former secretary of state under PM José Sócrates and advisor of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, saying they should be ashamed of themselves and recalled the controversy where Mr Ribeiro was accused, during the 2020 Benfica elections, of hyping poll results in favour of Luís Filipe Vieira.

Lmao
This is totally a move that will give more credibility to your party, yes.

The viral moment when, during the debate, Tino de Rans puts rocks in the table he caught from a beach in Peniche:

https://www.facebook.com/marceloafazercoisas/videos/2844028902536921/?t=23

Ventura's face is priceless. But what was Tino trying to say? Well, that the sea brings rocks of all colours and sizes, just like there are people with different colours and beliefs, but that the sea also brings "people" who want to built walls.

Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.

Not a good week for him between that and the rejection of his Court appeal...


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2021, 04:27:58 PM
When you walk by the sea, sometimes you see pebbles in the sand with nice colours. So sad Andre Ventura is not able to appreciate the simple things

Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.


Ventura looks embarrassed, not sure if he was destroyed. His counterpart Santiago Abascal was utterly trashed in a recent debate in the Spanish Congress, but apparently the failure of the Vox's motion of no confidence had no impact in the polls. I guess this viral moment won't harm Ventura at all, because it's just an ephemeral thing. The underlying causes that contribute to the rise of the xenophobic far right remain


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 05, 2021, 04:39:16 PM
Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.


Ventura looks embarrassed, not sure if he was destroyed. His counterpart Santiago Abascal was utterly trashed in a recent debate in the Spanish Congress, but apparently the failure of the Vox's motion of no confidence had no impact in the polls. I guess this viral moment won't harm Ventura at all, because it's just an ephemeral thing. The underlying causes that contribute to the rise of the xenophobic far right remain

Well I obviously don't mean destroyed in a literal sense and he won't be politically hurt at all. But it was a great moment (for Tino, that is).
For that matter, Ventura has produced countless of worse moments and he hasn't been hurt at all by them. I know he won't just go away.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 05, 2021, 05:16:46 PM
Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.


Ventura looks embarrassed, not sure if he was destroyed. His counterpart Santiago Abascal was utterly trashed in a recent debate in the Spanish Congress, but apparently the failure of the Vox's motion of no confidence had no impact in the polls. I guess this viral moment won't harm Ventura at all, because it's just an ephemeral thing. The underlying causes that contribute to the rise of the xenophobic far right remain

Well I obviously don't mean destroyed in a literal sense and he won't be politically hurt at all. But it was a great moment (for Tino, that is).
For that matter, Ventura has produced countless of worse moments and he hasn't been hurt at all by them. I know he won't just go away.
According to TV ratings, the Tino vs Ventura debate was one of the most watched programs ever in RTP3 (https://mag.sapo.pt/tv/atualidade-tv/artigos/debate-entre-tino-de-rans-e-andre-ventura-faz-subir-audiencias-da-rtp3), so a lot of people tuned in. And pundits also say that in his simple and a naive way, Tino de Rans was, till now, the only person to put Ventura in an uncomfortable position. The debate will not hurt Ventura, but could help Tino's chances, like Battista said, but there will be many debates, and possible moments, before election day.

Tomorrow, on SIC TV, will happen one of the most anticipated debates: Marcelo vs Ventura.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 06, 2021, 10:11:40 AM
In the day that the number of Covid infections reached a new record, more than 10,000 new cases, it's also being reported that President Marcelo is in prophylactic isolation (https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2021-01-06-Covid-19.-Marcelo-em-isolamento-profilatico-preventivo-mas-debate-desta-noite-com-Ventura-mantem-se) because one of his staff members in the Presidential Palace has contracted the virus.

However, tonight's debate between Marcelo and Ventura is still going to happen and the President will likely participate via satelite or zoom. A confirmation will be given during the afternoon.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 06, 2021, 12:55:47 PM
In the day that the number of Covid infections reached a new record, more than 10,000 new cases, it's also being reported that President Marcelo is in prophylactic isolation (https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2021-01-06-Covid-19.-Marcelo-em-isolamento-profilatico-preventivo-mas-debate-desta-noite-com-Ventura-mantem-se) because one of his staff members in the Presidential Palace has contracted the virus.

However, tonight's debate between Marcelo and Ventura is still going to happen and the President will likely participate via satelite or zoom. A confirmation will be given during the afternoon.
Update:

President Marcelo did a test that came back negative and Health authorities concluded that the President's contact with the member of his staff was minor (https://www.publico.pt/2021/01/06/politica/noticia/presidente-republica-isolamento-profilactico-aguarda-avaliacao-risco-dgs-1945259) and his isolation was suspended. Therefore, Marcelo will meet face to face André Ventura in tonight's debate on SIC TV.

Also, the State of Emergency was renewed by Parliament:

In favour (PS, PSD and MP Cristina Rodrigues - 188 votes)
Against (PCP, PEV, IL, CHEGA and MP Joacine Katar Moreira - 15 votes)
Abstained (BE, CDS and PAN - 27 votes)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 06, 2021, 06:37:30 PM
2021 Presidential debates: Marcelo vs Ventura debate on SIC TV


Quote
Presidential debates 2021: Marcelo versus Ventura: the two rights, the photographs and a revelation from Belém

The Marcelo vs Ventura debate was quite tense. Ventura and Marcelo quarreled deeply on the meaning of the "right" with Marcelo saying he's from the Social Right with a deep attachment to Christian values and love for others and accused Ventura of being from the "Right of Fear". Ventura says he doesn't want to be President of all Portuguese but only for those who do good. Marcelo says that differentiating people from pure to impure says a lot about Ventura. Ventura also accused Marcelo of not helping enough the people affected with the 2017 wildfires, which Marcelo angrily replied saying that the Ventura just says cheap demagogy. But one the most tense moments was when Marcelo basically accused Ventura of being two faced by saying he says one thing in private audiences and completely different things in public, adding that he doesn't admit that by Ventura. All of this after Ventura accused the President of being manipulated by Costa's government.

The full debate:



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 06, 2021, 09:15:32 PM
I spent 34 minutes watching a debate conducted entirely in a language that for the most part I can't understand... what am I doing with my life*

The parts I was able to understand were all great for MARCELO <3. When he mentioned the social doctrine of the Church and the preferential option for the poor. When he pushed back on that 'photograph with criminals' thing (which I didn't get entirely but seemed like a patently obvious low-key racist appeal) vigorously defending his role as President of all Portuguese. When he defended Portugal's lack of life imprisonment (huh, I discovered that today) making appeals to Sá Carneiro and the Pope and Christian charity.
I mostly missed the second half, but his defence of the COVID strategy seemed pretty forceful, and I learned that Ventura supports presidentialism, which adds to the list of horrible things about him, lol.

But yeah you can guess I prefer the Direita Social to the "Direita do Medo" (as an Esquerda person, of course).




*although of course I understand some bits as a fellow Neolatin language to my own Italian. I could start seriously learning Portuguese, but this is not the right moment and Spanish is far higher on my list of priorities (sorry).


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 07, 2021, 06:36:59 AM
I spent 34 minutes watching a debate conducted entirely in a language that for the most part I can't understand... what am I doing with my life*

The parts I was able to understand were all great for MARCELO <3. When he mentioned the social doctrine of the Church and the preferential option for the poor. When he pushed back on that 'photograph with criminals' thing (which I didn't get entirely but seemed like a patently obvious low-key racist appeal) vigorously defending his role as President of all Portuguese. When he defended Portugal's lack of life imprisonment (huh, I discovered that today) making appeals to Sá Carneiro and the Pope and Christian charity.
I mostly missed the second half, but his defence of the COVID strategy seemed pretty forceful, and I learned that Ventura supports presidentialism, which adds to the list of horrible things about him, lol.

But yeah you can guess I prefer the Direita Social to the "Direita do Medo" (as an Esquerda person, of course).




*although of course I understand some bits as a fellow Neolatin language to my own Italian. I could start seriously learning Portuguese, but this is not the right moment and Spanish is far higher on my list of priorities (sorry).
You basically catched the most important parts of the debate :). Pundits all agree that Marcelo beated Ventura by a knockout in this debate. Marcelo was able to stop many, if not all, of Ventura's attacks. Plus many of Ventura's responses and attacks fell flat. In fact, Ventura sounds like a "cassette", basically like the PCP, by repeating the same thing over and over again. He's been performing quite badly in the debates, contrary to my expectation, and is becoming too repetitive, and, yes, weak. Don't know if this will hurt him in the polls, though, we'll see.

Also, the debate had a very big audience, more than 1.7 million viewers tuned in (https://expresso.pt/presidenciais-2021/2021-01-07-Debate-Marcelo-Ventura-pulverizou-audiencias-dos-duelos-entre-candidatos-presidenciais-cerca-de-17-milhoes-de-espectadores-em-media). Overall, the 2021 Presidential debates are having very strong audiences. Tonight, there's another debate that could be tense: Ventura vs Marisa Matias.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 07, 2021, 11:17:47 AM
The "CV scandal" drags on: Costa continues to defend his Justice minister and accuses PSD members of waging an international campaign against Portugal.


Quote
Costa accuses three Social Democrats of campaigning against Portugal

In the post cabinet meeting where Costa and his ministers discussed the possibility of more restrictive measures against Covid for next week, he was also questioned, again, by the media about the ongoing "CV scandal" regarding Portugal's pick for EU prosecutor. Costa said he has full confidence in all of his cabinet ministers and that the Justice minister did the right thing in this case. He went on to accuse some PSD members of leading an international campaign against Portugal, adding that the "CV scandal" has no political relevance and goes on to say that it's unacceptable that some PSD members use the Portuguese EU presidency to oppose the government. Costa was citing PSD MEP Paulo Rangel, former PSD cabinet member Miguel Poiares Maduro, but also PSD MP Ricardo Batista Leite who has been the PSD spokesperson of Health issues and has appeared in many TV shows outside Portugal like UK's ITV Good Morning Britain.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 07, 2021, 03:25:17 PM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:  (https://tvi24.iol.pt/politica/presidenciais-2021/sondagem-tvi-observador-ana-gomes-e-ventura-empatados-no-segundo-lugar)

Vote share %:

67.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+1.4)
11.4% Ana Gomes (-1.6)
11.4% André Ventura (+0.8 )
   4.3% Marisa Matias (-0.2)
   2.6% João Ferreira (-0.2)
   2.1% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.4)
   0.4% Tino de Rans (-0.4)

Other questions:

Q1: Should the Constitution suffer some changes?

45% Yes, some
21% Yes, but very few
16% No changes at all
11% Yes, a lot of changes
  7% Undecided

Q2: Introduction of life imprisonment?

46% Good proposal
39% Bad proposal
12% Neither good or bad
  3% Undecided

Q3: Illegalization of CHEGA?

57% Bad proposal
16% Good proposal
21% Neither good or bad
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 December 2020 and 3 January 2021. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 07, 2021, 05:57:44 PM
Tonight's headlines: The Matias vs Ventura debate and the PSD crime complaint against Costa.

First the debate.


Quote
"Coward", "flip-flopper" and "swindler". Accusations ping pong between Marisa and Ventura

Marisa Matias and André Ventura faced each other, this evening, on SIC TV. The debate was really tense, with some low moments and insults from one side to the other, the moderator even said she would turn off the microphones. The debate started with Ventura accusing Matias of being undemocratic for saying she would not approve a government supported by CHEGA, and Ventura added that he would, as President, approve a BE government because he would have no choice. After that, the debate became ugly. Matias said the Ventura should explain why the police raided his office and Ventura said that that investigation was about the mayor of Lisbon, which is supported by BE. Matias started accusing Ventura of being a flip flopper, a coward and a swindler. The debate continued tense regarding subjects like taxes, the NHS and illegal immigrants, with both accusing each other of being liars and flip-floppers.

The PSD has reacted to the accusation, by Costa, that members of the party were conducting an international campaign against Portugal by presenting a crime complaint against the PM to the DA office.


Quote
Portugal - PSD announces criminal complaint against Costa for "delusional" charge.

The government continues to say that the case has no political relevancy and the PM accused some PSD members of a campaign against Portugal. The PSD was furious with the accusation and decided to present a crime complaint against the PM saying the accusations are "delusional" and that the PM is also saying this to protect his minister adding that lying is something that doesn't bother the PM nor his cabinet minister. Presidential candidate Ana Gomes, during a debate this night with Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, said she was shocked by the PM's words and characterized them as something that Viktor Orbán would say.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 08, 2021, 10:23:13 AM
2021 Presidential debates: Ana Gomes vs Ventura tonight on TVI


Quote
Ana Gomes and André Ventura, today at Jornal das 8 on TVI, debating towards the Presidentials 2021. We count on you!

Today is the debate between Ana Gomes and Ventura on TVI. In yesterday's evening debate, pundits say that Marisa Matias failed to control the debate and let Ventura control a lot of the agenda in the debate. Pundits on SIC said that Matias was very uncomfortable using cases to attack Ventura and that was used by Ventura to attack her decisively. They also argue that the left has been having difficulty in confronting Ventura and only the center-right candidates and Tino de Rans were able to put Ventura uncomfortable, so far. Nonetheless, the debate drew yet another big TV audience, with almost 1.6 million viewers.  (https://www.zapping-tv.com/debate-na-sic-volta-a-ser-o-evento-televisivo-mais-visto-do-dia/)

We'll see how the Gomes vs Ventura debate plays out.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 08, 2021, 12:04:33 PM
Possible postponement of the 2021 election? PSD opens the door to that possibility as a national lockdown in almost certain:


Quote
Covid-19: PSD opens the door to the postponement of the presidential elections if Belém candidates agree with it

The PSD leader, Rui Rio, says his party in open to talk about postponing the 24 January Presidential elections if the national lockdown, likely to start next week, lasts a full month. Rio says that it doesn't make sense if the lockdown is a full month to have an "suspension" of the lockdown just to vote. He adds that if candidates agree, the PSD will support it. He also criticized the idea of letting schools open during the possible lockdown. However, this question was raised to President Marcelo during a debate yesterday with Tino de Rans, and Marcelo said it's now impossible to postpone the elections, although some Constitutionalists say that the major parties could do a snap Constitutional change to resolve some issues.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 08, 2021, 06:32:30 PM
2021 Presidential debates: Very tense debate between Gomes and Ventura.


Quote
Ana Gomes vs. André Ventura. Candidates challenge list of accusations and “tricks” in the fight for second place

As expected the Gomes vs Ventura debate was very tense. However, this time, and unlike Marisa Matias, Ana Gomes didn't lost her composure although it was clear she was furious with Ventura's accusations. The debate was focused only on their proposals and criticisms towards President Marcelo were very few. Gomes said she is used to deal with "devils" that want to destroy democracy, while Ventura pressed Gomes to say if she was sorry for being a member of the maoist PCTP/MRPP in the 70's when she in her 20's. Gomes said she was proud of fighting for freedom in Portugal and that she has scars to prove it. Ventura went on to accuse Gomes of being close to people who, according to him, obstructed Justice like José Sócrates and Gomes campaign manager, Paulo Pedroso. Gomes accused Ventura of vile attacks but added she would not go down to the mud pit with him.

Full debate:



Tomorrow will be the final day of one-on-one debates, with the main one between President Marcelo and Ana Gomes. Tuesday, RTP will host an all candidates debate.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 08, 2021, 08:46:14 PM
Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/infograficos/detalhe/presidenciais-em-quem-votaria?ref=Pesquisa_Destaques)

Vote share %:

59.3% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+0.9)
  9.5% Ana Gomes (-2.6)
  9.5% André Ventura (-1.4)
  6.4% Marisa Matias (+1.9)
  4.4% João Ferreira (+1.1)
  2.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (-1.0)
  2.0% Tino de Rans (new)
  6.6% Invalid/Undecided (-1.0)

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 January 2021. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 09, 2021, 10:34:16 AM
2021 Presidential elections: As the vote nears, fears rise as voting for elderly people in nursing homes causes controversy.


Quote
Marcelo admits that next decree could provide for the vote of elderly people in nursing homes

As election day nears, controversy about how to vote in the elections starts to arise. This week, a controversy arose as the Electoral Commission (CNE) asked nursing homes to provide transport for elderly voters to cast a ballot in polling stations. However, this advise by the Electoral Commission was received with big criticisms, with many pundits and analysts accusing CNE of a huge lack of preparation and, also, judgement. President Marcelo is suggesting that he could issue an emergency Presidential decree to allow voting within nursing homes, and a decision could be announced in the next few days.
Plus, the certain national lockdown to start next week is creating fears that the turnout rate in the elections will be a historic low.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 09, 2021, 02:13:52 PM
More polling:

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

60.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-2.3)
14.8% Ana Gomes (+1.5)
10.1% André Ventura (-0.4)
  6.6% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
  5.2% João Ferreira (+0.2)
  2.0% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (nc)
  1.0% Tino de Rans (new)

Poll conducted between 3 and 7 January 2020. Polled 2,521 voters. MoE of 1.95%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 09, 2021, 06:17:28 PM
Last day of one on one debates in the 3 main networks: Debate between Ana Gomes and President Marcelo was the headline.


Quote
Presidential: Ana Gomes invokes Salgado and Marcelo replies that "not everything is worth in politics"

The Gomes vs Marcelo debate was much feistier than expected. Both candidates were quite divided in 2 main issues: CHEGA and corruption. Ana Gomes continued to press her view that we should see if CHEGA should continue legal or not, while President Marcelo said that talking about banning extremist parties only makes them stronger and act like victims, and that the best way to fight them is by ideas. Gomes said she wouldn't have accepted the Azorean solution at first and would try other options, with Marcelo saying the President cannot impose a solution and that if Ms Gomes is so upset about CHEGA, why didn't she filed a complaint with the DA office. The debate went on to talk about corruption, and Ana Gomes brought up the friendship of Marcelo with the disgraced former banker Ricardo Salgado. Marcelo was quite upset with that and said to Gomes that not everything is allowed in politics. He added that lawsuits involving big scandals went ahead during his term. Gomes also attacked Marcelo for being sometimes to close to the government and sometimes as the one that "pulls the rug" from the PM, therefore creating instability. Marcelo responded by saying that it wasn't him that said that Costa is like Viktor Orbán and that Ms Gomes has to be carefull as she is contradicting herself a lot.

Full debate:



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 10, 2021, 09:03:47 AM
2021 Presidential election: Official campaign period starts today, but candidates are limiting their campaigns and some have even cancelled all events.


Quote
Presidentials 2021: Elections in emergency: Marcelo's biggest opponent is abstention

The official campaign period starts today but the decision to impose a nationwide lockdown by next Wednesday is basically cancelling all of the normal campaign events. The government is preparing legislation to allow voting in nursing homes and it will be allowed to leave homes in order to vote. But, candidates are already changing their campaign strategies: Tino de Rans has cancelled all of his campaign events, André Ventura has limited all his campaign stops, President Marcelo will not campaign at all, and the other candidates are also changing their campaigns. Right now, the biggest fear is the turnout rate. It's now expected that the turnout rate will drop to a record low level. The mix of the pandemic and the forgone conclusion result, could make a lot of voters decide to skip this election, and the low turnout rate means that only the most mobilized and loyal voter bases could vote, which could put the final election result in doubt.

Nonetheless, between today and 14 January, voters can register to vote early on 17 January. It will be interesting to see if there's a big amount of voters to vote early or not.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 10, 2021, 12:55:04 PM
2021 Presidential campaign: André Ventura faced with protests in a campaign stop in Serpa, Beja, and many protested in Lisbon against Marine Le Pen visit to support Ventura:


Quote
"We are Portuguese gypsies with great pride." Ventura received in Serpa with protests

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, was received with protests from the gypsy community in Serpa. Half a hundred protesters, shouted insults and called fascist towards Ventura as he was campaigning in the village. At the same time, around 200 people in Lisbon were protesting against Marine Le Pen's visit to Portugal in support of Ventura's campaign. Le Pen's visit was expected to have a lot of events but many of them were cancelled due to the surge of Covid cases in Portugal. A rally with Le Pen was substituted with a dinner, yesterday night, where she said Ventura was a "sign from heaven" (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-01-10-Le-Pen-em-jantar-comicio-com-Ventura-o-homem-que-seca-as-lagrimas-do-povo-e-quer-bater-a-esquerda-toda). During the day, Le Pen went shopping in Cascais village, in the Portuguese Riviera. In his speech, Ventura says he wants to have more votes than all the leftwing combined and wants to provoke a "political earthquake".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 10, 2021, 01:19:27 PM
Lol at Ventura's wishful thinking. He'll likely take less votes than Ana Gomes, let alone than Gomes, Matias and Ferreira combined.

And Marine Le Pen's comment is stupid, but whatever.
Frankly, right now, I'm worried about these elections. The Covid situation in Portugal has become very bad, almost 50,000 new cases in just 5 days, and the elections have a big cloud of abstention over them. Like I said in a post above, there is a big fear that turnout will be very low and that only the most motivated bases will show up to vote. Ventura has a very motivated base, while the other candidates, including Marcelo, have a much more fluid and instable political base. Marcelo's victory isn't in doubt, but the rest is very open if low turnout is a reality. I really hope I'm wrong.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 10, 2021, 01:27:44 PM
Frankly, right now, I'm worried about these elections. The Covid situation in Portugal has become very bad, almost 50,000 new cases in just 5 days, and the elections have a big cloud of abstention over them. Like I said in a post above, there is a big fear that turnout will be very low and that only the most motivated bases will show up to vote. Ventura has a very motivated base, while the other candidates, including Marcelo, have a much more fluid and instable political base. Marcelo's victory isn't in doubt, but the rest is very open if low turnout is a reality. I really hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're wrong too. Our last elections had pretty normal turnout (low, but in line with other referenda and local elections) but they were conducted when case rates were quite low. 10,000 cases per day is indeed extremely bad in a nation of 10 million people and I've seen that apparently it's been a very sudden jump, which is particularly troubling.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 10, 2021, 02:24:58 PM
Frankly, right now, I'm worried about these elections. The Covid situation in Portugal has become very bad, almost 50,000 new cases in just 5 days, and the elections have a big cloud of abstention over them. Like I said in a post above, there is a big fear that turnout will be very low and that only the most motivated bases will show up to vote. Ventura has a very motivated base, while the other candidates, including Marcelo, have a much more fluid and instable political base. Marcelo's victory isn't in doubt, but the rest is very open if low turnout is a reality. I really hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're wrong too. Our last elections had pretty normal turnout (low, but in line with other referenda and local elections) but they were conducted when case rates were quite low. 10,000 cases per day is indeed extremely bad in a nation of 10 million people and I've seen that apparently it's been a very sudden jump, which is particularly troubling.
The good news so far, is that there seems to be a heavy rate of registration for early voting: Since midnight, 20,248 voters have already registered to vote early. The deadline is Thursday. In the 2019 elections, more than 56,000 people registered to vote early. It seems that in this election, that number will be easily, and widely, surpassed. I myself will also registered to vote early. :)

Let's see how this unfolds.

Also, hilarious moment during André Ventura's campaign event:

Quote
Skeleton appears on the stage while Ventura speaks. Campaign speaks of “sabotage”

While Ventura was giving a speech in Serpa's Theater hall, the curtains of the stage opened and a skeleton appeared. The moment caught Ventura by surprise and he was stunned. His campaign are saying someone tried to sabotage the event.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 10, 2021, 03:31:30 PM
PSD leader, Rui Rio, is in isolation after one of his deputies, Salvador Malheiro, announced he was infected with Covid-19. Mr Rio will be tested on Tuesday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 10, 2021, 06:16:15 PM
Unrelated, but I was looking at some maps and I've noticed that the district of Leiria is sizably more right-wing than all the surrounding ones and breaks the pattern of Portugal getting more left-wing the more South you go*, most notably being the only mainland district won by PSD in 2005, and having never been won by the PS. Why is that?


*well, excluding the southernmost Faro but like, you'd be hard pressed to get more left-wing than Communist-loving Alentejo.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 10, 2021, 06:29:17 PM
Unrelated, but I was looking at some maps and I've noticed that the district of Leiria is sizably more right-wing than all the surrounding ones and breaks the pattern of Portugal getting more left-wing the more South you go*, most notably being the only mainland district won by PSD in 2005, and having never been won by the PS. Why is that?


*well, excluding the southernmost Faro but like, you'd be hard pressed to get more left-wing than Communist-loving Alentejo.

I posted this explanation in a topic about Portuguese election maps, a few years ago:
-That region that goes from Leiria, Santarém and ends in Castelo Branco, is very "orange country". It has always been. It is a somewhat mountainous region with very small size properties. The fact that the region borders the Tagus river may be crucial and it can be, again, related with the 1975 events, as the population of that region was scared by the left parties because of the proximity from the great plains of Alentejo. Today, the region is quite poor, but it has some rich spots like Fatíma parish, where the huge Our Lady of Fátima sanctuary is located. In this parish, the center-right parties easily break 70% in almost every election.
My explanation is that as, like I wrote in the post, it borders the big plains of Alentejo, people got scared of the left and the massive expropriations of big farms in the South thus voted to the right, a trend that continues as of today. It's also a very conservative region, with the Fátima sanctuary, like I said above, although Fátima is Santarém district, but is in the border with Leiria.

In the parish map I made with the 2019 election results, you can clearly see the Leiria region, and the "wall" it almost makes between North and South:
()


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2021, 10:56:28 AM
2021 Presidential campaign: Campaign update.

As of yesterday at 11:59pm, 52,994 voters had already registered to vote early. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/01/11/politica/noticia/dia-quase-53-mil-eleitores-inscritos-voto-antecipado-1945793) That total is higher than the total of early votes cast in the 2019 general elections. The trend from 2019 showed that as the deadline was closing in, the number of voters registering increased, so I would say the final early vote registration will be somewhere between 200,000-400,000. We'll see.

Candidates are also campaigning, but in a very low profile:

Tino de Rans

Tino de Rans gave blood in St. John Hospital in Porto city, this morning, and asked people to donate blood for the NHS (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/do-pouco-se-faz-muito-vitorino-silva-deu-sangue-e-incentiva-portugueses-a-fazer-o-mesmo-13216731.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter). Talking with reporters, Tino said he will participate in the Infarmed meeting tomorrow to discuss the measures for the lockdown, the government invited all Presidential candidates, and said he still believes the elections should be postponed because of the pandemic.

Marisa Matias:

Marisa Matias opened her campaign, yesterday, with a virtual rally where she and BE leader, Catarina Martins, spoke to hundreds of supporters tuning in online. Today, she met with informal caregivers, to raise awareness of the lack of support these kind of workers have.

João Ferreira:

The PCP candidate, João Ferreira, opened, also yesterday, his campaign with a rally in Porto city accompanied by PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa.

Ana Gomes:

Ana Gomes gave this morning an interview to Antena 1 radio. She said she doesn't regret bring up Ricardo Salgado in the debate between her and President Marcelo adding that Marcelo is culpable of inertia regarding judicial issues as he doesn't press for speedy and tough penalties. She also said she doesn't expect dropouts from Marisa Matias or João Ferreira in her favour.

Also, Tino de Rans is, unexpectedly, involved in internal tensions within CHEGA. Several local CHEGA party branches in Leiria district, that are furious with Ventura and have drop their support for him are now supporting Tino de Rans (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/paginas-do-chega-apelam-ao-voto-em-tino-de-rans?ref=hp_destaquesprincipais) and advising voters to vote in Tino. Social media pages of these local branches in Leiria are full with pro-Tino propaganda.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2021, 03:11:18 PM
2021 Presidential campiagn: TV broadcasts from the candidates

Marisa Matias:



André Ventura:



Tino de Rans:


Will post the rest of TV broadcast when available. President Marcelo is the only candidate that will not present TV broadcasts.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2021, 05:44:13 PM
JUST IN: President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has confirmed he is infected with Covid-19. He has canceled all of his agenda for the next few days. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-01-11-Marcelo-tem-covid-19-e-esta-assintomatico-teste-rapido-da-manha-deu-negativo-PCR-deu-positivo) He was to take part, tomorrow, in an all candidates debate on RTP1 and it seems he will not take part in the debate as he is isolated in the Presidential Palace.

André Ventura has also isolated himself and has also canceled all his campaign actions.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 11, 2021, 06:43:25 PM
Prayers for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa!

And he's far from the first head of state to contract the virus... also RIP the final debate.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2021, 07:18:43 PM
Prayers for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa!

And he's far from the first head of state to contract the virus... also RIP the final debate.

Not sure about the debate. RTP seems to be contacting the campaigns to see what can be done. A "Skype debate" could be on the table. We'll see, but this has derailed even more a campaign that was already at minimums. It's also being reported that Marcelo is doing more tests to see if this is a "false positive" or not.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: VPH on January 11, 2021, 10:31:43 PM
Tino de Rans' campaign is really fun to watch because it threads the line between a joke bid and a serious undertaking. He makes the divide murky.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2021, 05:39:16 AM
President Marcelo did another test, like I posted above, and came out negative. According to the media, he did a final confirmatory test and is now waiting for the results.

Tino de Rans' campaign is really fun to watch because it threads the line between a joke bid and a serious undertaking. He makes the divide murky.
I'm of the opinion that he could have a very surprising result. He's that kind of candidate who can serve as a protest vote without being too radical or too dangerous. We'll see.

Also, early voting update: 112,506 voters have already registered to vote early. The numbers are until 11:59pm yesterday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2021, 09:34:13 AM
At the same time, new polling:

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://observador.pt/2021/01/12/sondagem-ps-cresceu-com-pandemia-psd-nao-faz-progressos-nas-intencoes-de-voto/)

Vote share %:

38.0% PS (nc)
24.1% PSD (+0.5)
  9.1% BE (+1.8 )
  9.1% CHEGA (+1.4)
  5.7% CDU (+0.3)
  3.8% IL (-0.7)
  3.6% PAN (+0.2)
  2.3% CDS (-0.9) 
  0.2% Livre (-0.7)
  0.6% Others (-0.5)
  3.6% Invalid/Blank (-1.3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.4 António Costa (+0.1)
3.0 Rui Rio (+0.1)
3.0 Catarina Martins (+0.3)
2.7 André Silva (-0.1)
2.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.4 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.3)
2.4 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.1 André Ventura (-0.1)
1.9 Joacine Katar Moreira (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 January 2021. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2021, 09:54:39 AM
Tino de Rans' campaign is really fun to watch because it threads the line between a joke bid and a serious undertaking. He makes the divide murky.
Plus, Tino has again gone viral after an interview yesterday on TVI, with Miguel Sousa Tavares (one of the worst reporters in Portugal, IMO), in which he lecture Sousa Tavares about Presidential terms:

Quote
Miguel Sousa Tavares: "Vitorino, are we going to have you here again in 4 years?"

Tino: "Miguel, the presidential elections are every 5 years."


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: VPH on January 12, 2021, 10:02:52 AM
Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2021, 10:16:57 AM
Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.
Yep, no poll putted him that high, although there was a poll that gave him 2.5% on election eve. Nonetheless, no one predicted he would be just 0.7% behind the PCP candidate. Currently, the highest he has in one poll is 2.0%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2021, 10:31:12 AM
And... Marcelo's confirmatory test came back negative. Yesterday he made 4 testes: one antigen test, during the morning that was negative, and then 3 PCR tests, the first came back positive but the following two tests came back negative. The media says the President is now awaiting guidance from Health authorities.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 12, 2021, 11:36:55 AM
Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.

You should definitely post in this thread more often!

Anyway, I hope that in the end Marcelo just got a false positive.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2021, 12:43:39 PM
Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.

You should definitely post in this thread more often!

Anyway, I hope that in the end Marcelo just got a false positive.
All signs point to that, and many doctors and specialists have been commentating it this afternoon on TV. Many candidates were also tested, Ventura and Matias tested negative and will resume campaigning tomorrow. Ana Gomes also said that postponing the elections should be on the table as the pandemic situation in Portugal is very likely to get worse even with the lockdown to start this Thursday. All candidates took part in the Infarmed meeting that gathered politicians and health specialists to analyse the current situation in the country.

Regarding tonight's debate, RTP says it plans to go ahead with the debate, but, if necessary, is ready to postpone it to a later date.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2021, 01:04:26 PM
Regarding tonight's debate, RTP says it plans to go ahead with the debate, but, if necessary, is ready to postpone it to a later date.

RTP has now confirmed the debate will indeed happen with all candidates present:


UPDATE: President Marcelo will participate in the debate via video call/Skype.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2021, 07:45:39 PM
2021 Presidential elections: All candidates debate on RTP1.


Quote
Candidates remove postponement of elections

In a weird debate where one of the candidates was present only by screen, the 7 candidates discussed their proposals and what posture they would have as President of the Republic. It was a serene debate and not at all tense and in some moments quite boring, unlike previous one on one debates. Nonetheless, all of the attacks were centred in Marcelo. Candidates first started to comment the possibility of postponing the elections and the bad management in conducting the elections in this period. Ventura criticized the government for failing to prepare the elections but added that postponing the election is "unviable" right now; Ana Gomes said she would be open to postpone the election adding that the election isn't a "coronation". Tiago Mayan also criticized the government's bad management of the elections, João Ferreira said that candidates shouldn't create panic and Tino de Rans also said he supported postponing the elections saying it was evident that a 3rd wave was coming and that he would he ashamed of being sworn in with a 50%+ abstention rate. Marisa Matias said she would do the best possible to the campaign in the current limitations. President Marcelo said that he talked with all parties about a snap Constitutional change to postpone the election, but not a single party supported.  

The debate went on to discuss more ideological topics, like the role of the private sector in Healthcare. Here there was a clear right-left split. Both Mayan and Ventura attacked the ideological prejudice the left has against the private sector, while Ana Gomes, just like Matias and Ferreira, lashed out against the neo-liberal policies in the Health system and attacked Marcelo for supporting the private sector. On his part, President Marcelo said he supports more budget money for the NHS but, if necessary, a support from the private sector. Tino de Rans said he doesn't see a difference between the private sector and the public sector and that at the end of the day, the most important is being taking care of. President Marcelo was attacked by the right and Tino de Rans for being too close to Costa, while the left candidates said that Marcelo doesn't care about parts of the society and that will prepare the ground for a return of the right to power. Marcelo responded by saying that his role, as President, is to unite and be a force of stability.

Questioned about what country they see, Tiago Mayan said that if Marcelo is reelected, he will end his term as the President of one of Europe's poorest countries, while Ventura said that Portugal is a country drowning in taxes and that this needs to change. Ana Gomes said the fight against climate change and tax evasion should be a priority and are a problem in Portugal. Matias pressed of the issue of inequality while Ferreira said the country needs to take back control of many of its assets. President Marcelo said he wanted the country to be happier.

Full debate:
Part 1


Part 2



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2021, 08:35:48 PM
Plus, some weird, and currently viral moments surrounding the debate.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa arriving home from the Presidential Palace to start preparing for the debate, but "furious" with Health authorities for not giving him a written response answering if he could go to the debate personally:

Quote
Marcelo: "I'm really angry"

And Ana Gomes after the debate, on RTP3, criticizing the organization of the debate because of how cold the set was:

Quote
Nobody speaks of this: the cold and the chairs of the debate.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 05:51:38 AM
2021 Presidential election: Early vote update.

As of yesterday, 151,396 voters had registered to vote early on January 17. The deadline for registration is Thursday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 06:32:46 AM
Electoral compass for the 2021 Presidential elections:

https://emquemvotar.pt/

My results were:

77.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
72.5% Tino de Rans
62.0% Ana Gomes
57.6% Marisa Matias
57.3% André Ventura
50.9% João Ferreira
50.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 13, 2021, 07:51:13 AM
Electoral compass for the 2021 Presidential elections:

https://emquemvotar.pt/

My results were:

77.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
72.5% Tino de Rans
62.0% Ana Gomes
57.6% Marisa Matias
57.3% André Ventura
50.9% João Ferreira
50.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

I tried this too because why not! I found the questions surprisingly simple (which is not a bad thing).

My results were:

84.3% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
74.1% João Ferreira
71.9% Ana Gomes
62.2% Marisa Matias
58.9% Tino de Rans
50.4% André Ventura
46.4% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves

Our preference orders are almost opposite of each other save for Ventura, lol. I guess it makes sense, since my impression is that you are something something classical liberal and I am pretty much a (small-c conservative) leftist. Not that this matters much since I am not Portuguese, of course.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 08:15:26 AM
Our preference orders are almost opposite of each other save for Ventura, lol. I guess it makes sense, since my impression is that you are something something classical liberal and I am pretty much a (small-c conservative) leftist. Not that this matters much since I am not Portuguese, of course.
I'm a bit more liberal yes, but my belief is that in order to have a strong welfare state, you need a strong economy, and Portugal's economy is very fragile and lacks to fund our very good welfare state. I would say I'm more a "moderate liberal", if there's such a thing. But, to be honest, I'm not a very big fan of IL, them seem too naive and many of their proposals, like the 15% flat tax which I voted against in the compass, doesn't seem feasible to me. Nonetheless, I'm still a bit undecided on who to vote for. I was leaning strongly towards Ana Gomes, but her performances in the debates disappointed me, as she made the stupid mistake, IMO, of always talking about CHEGA and banning it instead of talking about her main flags against corruption and against special interests, which I actually like about her.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 10:26:05 AM
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will continue isolated as his security body chief is also infected. The President's tests are also being investigated, because of the positive one he had, contrary to the rest of the tests that came back negative.

PSD leader Rui Rio also informed his test came back negative but that he will continue isolated for 14 days.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 12:43:48 PM
Cold wave energy prices: Government will introduce a 10% discount in energy bills for all families.


Quote
Electricity: Government prepares 10% discount on the electricity bill

In the middle of big cold wave in Portugal that made energy consumption rise to almost record levels, the government announced it will introduce a 10% discount in electricity bills for all families. This measure is planned to start during January and the policy "provides for the payment of about 10% of the monthly bill, which in practice means the difference between the 2020 bill and this year's bill". The government expects this policy to cost 20-25 million euros per month. The government is also planning to impose a price limit in the sale of sale of cylinder gas.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 13, 2021, 07:34:13 PM
Did that quiz a few days ago (seems it has been taken down now), don't remember the exact results but Ana Gomes was 1st. Even though her campaign wasn't great (I can't believe how some of the left and some media still haven't realized that the more attention they give to the far-right, the more it will grow) I will be voting for her next Sunday, if only for the joy of seeing Ventura below her.

(J/k I actually appreciate her as a credible voice against corruption and her career in diplomacy, though I don't actually think she'd be as good a President as Marcelo to be honest)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2021, 07:55:12 PM
Did that quiz a few days ago (seems it has been taken down now), don't remember the exact results but Ana Gomes was 1st. Even though her campaign wasn't great (I can't believe how some of the left and some media still haven't realized that the more attention they give to the far-right, the more it will grow) I will be voting for her next Sunday, if only for the joy of seeing Ventura below her.

(J/k I actually appreciate her as a credible voice against corruption and her career in diplomacy, though I don't actually think she'd be as good a President as Marcelo to be honest)
Yeah, it was taken down. Weird. I'm still undecided. But I'm still a bit inclined to vote Ana Gomes for, like I wrote above, her anti-corruption speech. Until Sunday, I will make a decision.

Are you also going to vote early Crals?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 13, 2021, 08:34:24 PM
Did that quiz a few days ago (seems it has been taken down now), don't remember the exact results but Ana Gomes was 1st. Even though her campaign wasn't great (I can't believe how some of the left and some media still haven't realized that the more attention they give to the far-right, the more it will grow) I will be voting for her next Sunday, if only for the joy of seeing Ventura below her.

(J/k I actually appreciate her as a credible voice against corruption and her career in diplomacy, though I don't actually think she'd be as good a President as Marcelo to be honest)
Yeah, it was taken down. Weird. I'm still undecided. But I'm still a bit inclined to vote Ana Gomes for, like I wrote above, her anti-corruption speech. Until Sunday, I will make a decision.

Are you also going to vote early Crals?
Yep. Hoping to avoid other voters as much as possible. :D


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2021, 05:13:57 AM
2021 Presidential election: Early vote update.

Today is the last day to register in order to vote early next Sunday, 17 January. Until 11:59pm yesterday, 196,786 voters had register to cast an early ballot.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2021, 07:33:35 AM
As the country is preparing for a lockdown, to start this evening at midnight, the government has at least 3 minister isolated or infected with the virus. The labor minister, Ana Mendes Godinho, is infected and is isolated while the Environment minister and the Sea affair minister are isolated because of contact with a high risk case:


Quote
Minister of Labor infected with Covid 19. Ministers of Environment and Sea in isolation


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2021, 10:30:52 AM
2021 Presidential election: Campaign update.

Candidates continue to campaign across the country, with strict limitations, although it's still unclear how the rest of the campaign will progress during the lockdown that starts tonight.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa:

Quote
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa assumes these positions in an interview with Antena 1, released today, in which he calls for participation in the presidential elections on the 24th, arguing that "it is more important to vote in a pandemic than it is without a pandemic"
Antena 1 radio released an interview with President Marcelo in which he said that he would have the same relationship he has currently with Costa if the country decides to have another PM anytime soon. He added he has a very good relation with Costa and when asked if PSD/CDS voters could be upset with his good relation with Costa, the President responded by saying that the cohabition was a choice of the electorate. He also pressed that voting isn't dangerous and that it's more important to vote during a pandemic than without one.

Ana Gomes:

Quote
Espionage to journalists: Ana Gomes points the finger at Marcelo
Ana Gomes campaigned, yesterday, in Santarém city and she visited several places including a police station to highlight the bad conditions police forces are working in and that the defense of police forces isn't just a right-wing topic. During the visit, Ana Gomes also commentated the ongoing controversy of prosecutors spying reports regarding some judicial cases and she blamed President Marcelo for his failed "Justice pact", adding the problems in the Justice system are only getting worse.

André Ventura:

Quote
Ventura again insults candidates at a rally: "Marcelo looked like that skeleton behind me"
André Ventura was received with protests in another campaign event, this time in Portalegre city, where he fired several criticisms and insults to several party leaders. Ventura said that Costa should get ready to be booted out of office and called PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa a "drunken grandfather". In an almost stand-up comedy act filled with attacks and insults he also said that Marisa Matias isn't very good image wise, especially her "red lips".

João Ferreira:

Quote
Today, I was chatting with Isabel Moreira to whom I thank again for the trust.
João Ferreira, received, yesterday, the support of PS MP Isabel Moreira, daughter of Adriano Moreira, founder of CDS and minister during the Salazar regime.

Marisa Matias:

Quote
Marisa Matias wants “dignified” confinement. Enacting restrictions without announcing support "is unacceptable"
Marisa Matias was yesterday in the Azores campaigning and gave a TV interview to RTP Azores. Today, she visited a charity institution in Lisbon that is seeing a huge surge of poverty and of people asking help for food. She pressed that the new lockdown has to have supports announced at the right time and criticized the government for delaying crucial decision regarding the pandemic.

Tino de Rans:

Quote
Vitorino Silva promises to be the "outburst of the people"
In an interview to Jornal de Notícias, Tino de Rans accused Marcelo of sometimes failing to have sense of state. He also added that a strong Marcelo result will mean that Costa will be out of power during Marcelo's second term. He also said he's the candidate that understands the current outburst of the people.

Tiago Mayan Gonçalves:

Tiago Mayan had an audience with Porto's mayor, Rui Moreira, in Porto city hall where he talked about the problems in the election organization. To reporters he also commentated the ongoing controversy surrounding the spying of reporters by prosecutors and said that these actions are an attack on press freedom and freedom of speech.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2021, 02:39:56 PM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:  (https://observador.pt/interativo/sondagens-eleicoes-presidenciais-2021/)

Vote share %:

66.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.2)
11.0% André Ventura (-0.4)
10.8% Ana Gomes (-0.6)
  4.0% Marisa Matias (-0.3)
  3.2% João Ferreira (+0.6)
  2.3% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.2)
  2.1% Tino de Rans (+1.7)

Vote share %:

41.4% PS (+0.5)
28.0% PSD (+1.7)
  7.1% BE (-0.2)
  5.9% CHEGA (-2.5)
  5.1% CDU (+1.0)
  4.1% IL (+1.3)
  2.2% PAN (+0.4)
  1.2% CDS (-0.2) 
  0.0% Livre (-0.2)
  5.1% Others/Invalid (-1.8 )

Poll conducted between 29-30 December 2020, 2-3 January and 7-10 January 2021. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 15, 2021, 06:08:05 AM
2021 Presidential election: Early voting numbers.

The registration in order to vote early next Sunday, 17 January, ended last night at midnight. A total of 246,876 voters will be registered to cast an early ballot next Sunday.

Overall, some ballots have been already cast. 66 voters hospitalized cast an early ballot as around 2,500 voters in prison also cast a ballot.  (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/eleicoes-presidenciais/2021-01-13-Presidenciais.-Recorde-historico-de-reclusos-inscritos-para-votar) Overseas, voting problems are already occurring with ballots arriving late to some countries because of logistic errors, like in Bulgaria, and in Morocco, ballots didn't arrived at time for early voting.  (https://expresso.pt/presidenciais2021/2021-01-15-Presidenciais-engano-da-transportadora-atrasa-a-chegada-de-boletins-de-voto-a-Bulgaria.-Em-Marrocos-nao-foi-possivel-votar-antecipadamente)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 15, 2021, 09:23:19 AM
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa did more than 80 covid tests in 10 months of the pandemic:


Quote
Marcelo performed more than 80 tests on covid-19 in ten months of pandemic

After this week's confusion due to the President's Covid test results, the media is now reporting that in the span of 10 months, the President has conducted more than 80 covid tests. Currently the President is under surveillance from the Health authorities and any movement he wants to do has to be approved by them. He conducts the tests in the Champalimaud institute and all of his staff is also weekly tested in a private lab. The President is expected to do another test this Saturday in order to, at least it's his plan, do a few campaign stops during the next week.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 15, 2021, 09:50:52 AM
The trend from 2019 showed that as the deadline was closing in, the number of voters registering increased, so I would say the final early vote registration will be somewhere between 200,000-400,000. We'll see.

Not bad my forecast range for the early vote numbers. However, the almost 247,000 voter registration data isn't final yet, as the government said that mail applications are still being counted.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 15, 2021, 12:38:46 PM
Social media backlash against Ventura's insults towards Marisa Matias using the hashtag "#VermelhoemBelem" (#RedinBelem) :


Quote
#VermelhoemBelem. Ventura's attack on Marisa generates a wave of condemnations on Twitter

André Ventura's attacks, Wednesday night on a rally in Portalegre city, against Marisa Matias and some other candidates and politicians are creating a huge wave of criticisms and anger towards Ventura. Regarding Marisa Matias, Ventura said that Matias, "image wise, isn't very good with very red lips, as if it were something to play wit." This attack was received in anger on social media and yesterday, and also today, the hastag "#VermelhoemBelem" (#RedinBelem) is trending and becoming viral in Portugal. Many BE politicians, men and women, and also some PS ones, including Ana Gomes, are posting pictures or videos of them painting their lips with red lipstick and replicating the hastag.

Other candidates like Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, are also attacking Ventura for his remarks, calling Ventura's campaign "low level".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 15, 2021, 03:59:01 PM
Prosecutor CV scandal: DA office has opened an investigation surrounding the matter.


Quote
Public prosecutor (DA office) opens criminal investigation into the appointment of the European prosecutor

The DA office has opened an investigation about the CV scandal surrounding the government's pick for Portugal's European Prosecutor. The complain was filed by the President of lawyers bar association. In this scandal, the government "faked" the CV of their pick for European Prosecutor. It is now known that the EU accepted the arguments from the government that are now proved to be false. The PM and the government continue to downplay the issue saying it doesn't have political matter and that everything was just a mistake. However, the case seems to have had an European impact, unlike what PM Costa said, and many EU parties like the EPP and Renew Europe have filed a complaint to Von der Leyen (https://www.tsf.pt/mundo/ppe-pede-intervencao-de-von-der-leyen-no-caso-da-nomeacao-de-procurador-portugues-13204646.html) and many MEPs say the Costa's explanations are not enough:

Quote
(...)
The affair has cast a shadow over Costa’s Socialist government at the start of its six-month stint as president of the Council of the EU.

In a letter to Dacian Cioloș, leader of the centrist Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, Costa wrote that “there was no political interference” in the appointment of José Guerra, the country’s representative to the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), which was set up last year to crack down on misuse of EU funds.

Renew Europe swiftly dismissed the letter as insufficient.

“The response we received was not clarifying enough,” the group said in a statement, “and therefore we need a debate with all players involved. Our interest is the reputation and functioning of the EPPO. It is therefore vital for us that objectivity and meritocracy rule in the appointments of the prosecutors — any suspicion of possible political influence should be avoided.”
(...)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2021, 08:06:13 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes-presidenciais-2021/ps-atinge-melhor-resultado-desde-as-legislativas-e-chega-ultrapassa-cdu-revela-eurosondagem_n1289928)

Vote share %:

39.0% PS (+0.2)
28.0% PSD (-1.4)
  6.5% BE (-0.7)
  5.5% CHEGA (+0.3)
  5.3% CDU (nc)
  2.2% PAN (+0.2)
  2.1% CDS (-0.4) 
  1.3% IL (+0.2)
10.1% Others/Invalid (+1.6)

Poll conducted between 11 and 14 January 2021. Polled 1,021 voters. MoE of 3.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2021, 12:23:56 PM
And he returns... José Sócrates writes an op-ed trashing Ana Gomes and the rightwing:


Quote
Socrates "shots" against the extreme right of Ventura and the "backbiting" of Ana Gomes

The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/ana-gomes-considera-elucidativo-que-socrates-a-ataque-e-elogie-marcelo) and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 16, 2021, 02:23:49 PM
The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/ana-gomes-considera-elucidativo-que-socrates-a-ataque-e-elogie-marcelo) and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.

This op-ed has an uncomfortably strong smell of Moderate Heroism... but why shouldn't anyone give airtime to Sócrates in Portugal (or probably, why does he receive any in Brazil)?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2021, 02:45:36 PM
The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/ana-gomes-considera-elucidativo-que-socrates-a-ataque-e-elogie-marcelo) and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.

This op-ed has an uncomfortably strong smell of Moderate Heroism... but why shouldn't anyone give airtime to Sócrates in Portugal (or probably, why does he receive any in Brazil)?

José Sócrates is probably the most toxic politician in Portugal, right now. The way his tenure end, with the bailout, plus all of his corrupt conduct that was unveiled in the "Marquis Operation", in which Sócrates was involved in a series of WTF money schemes and his subsequent arrest, he was in jail for around 8 months or so, made him so unpopular, and so hated by everyone. He is also involved in ludicrous scandals involving books he said he wrote but in reality he didn't, it was a ghost writer, and that his friends, his ex-wife mother and other people close to him bought thousands of copies of his books in order to seem it was a best seller. (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/politica/2016-03-16-quem-comprou-os-livros-de-socrates/) Anyway, the PS want distance from him and he even isn't a PS member anymore.

Don't know why he got the "airtime" in Brazil. However, even here Sócrates has links because he's also suspected of receiving bribes from Odebrecht, the company in the middle of the Brazilian "Lava Jato" scandal.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 16, 2021, 03:16:44 PM
The former PM and PS leader José Sócrates wrote an op-ed in a Brazilian magazine, (because probably no one would give him airtime in Portugal) in which he starts by referring to the lessons of history, Mussolini and the recent evasion of the Capitol in the US, to then saying that the campaign for the Presidency in Portugal has shown the level of "political degradation" the country is in, adding that the arrival of André Ventura is changing everything and that "the show is now one of violence, personal aggression and brutality, first in words - always begins in words". He went on to trash Ana Gomes by accusing her of using the fight against corruption in order to curse many people, the rich, the powerfull and many of her own companions in the PS. He adds that Ms Gomes only does this in order to be popular and make headlines. He ends by saying that President Marcelo has to defend himself against Ana Gomes attacks.

Ana Gomes already reacted to Sócrates op-ed, saying it speaks volumes that Sócrates is defending President Marcelo (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/ana-gomes-considera-elucidativo-que-socrates-a-ataque-e-elogie-marcelo) and that she would not comment words from those who embezzled state funds.

This op-ed has an uncomfortably strong smell of Moderate Heroism... but why shouldn't anyone give airtime to Sócrates in Portugal (or probably, why does he receive any in Brazil)?

José Sócrates is probably the most toxic politician in Portugal, right now. The way his tenure end, with the bailout, plus all of his corrupt conduct that was unveiled in the "Marquis Operation", in which Sócrates was involved in a series of WTF money schemes and his subsequent arrest, he was in jail for around 8 months or so, made him so unpopular, and so hated by everyone. He is also involved in ludicrous scandals involving books we said he wrote but in reality he didn't, it was a ghost writer, and that his friends, his ex-wife mother and other people close to him bought thousands of copies of his books in order to seem it was a best seller. (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/politica/2016-03-16-quem-comprou-os-livros-de-socrates/) Anyway, the PS want distance from him and he even isn't a PS member anymore.

Don't know why he got the "airtime" in Brazil. However, even here Sócrates has links because he's also suspected of receiving bribes from Odebrecht, the company in the middle of the Brazilian "Lava Jato" scandal.

Huh, I did not know anything about him except that he used to be PM, but he sounds like a deplorable person (and lmao at someone like him decrying "political degradation" in Portugal).

If he is involved in Brazilian scandals too... whoa.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2021, 03:29:00 PM
Huh, I did not know anything about him except that he used to be PM, but he sounds like a deplorable person (and lmao at someone like him decrying "political degradation" in Portugal).

If he is involved in Brazilian scandals too... whoa.
That's what makes this op-ed even more a joke, but whatever, his ego is so big he even doesn't see this contradiction.  

Regarding the Brazilian scandals, to be fair, it's not only Sócrates who is suspected to be involved: the campaign manager of the 2015 Passos Coelho election campaign is accused of receiving bribes from Odebrecht. (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/passos-coelho-e-a-odebrecht-as-ligacoes-suspeitas-que-envolveram-lula-e-tramaram-o-gestor-de-campanha-do-psd-624378) Passos Coelho himself is suspected of receiving pressures from Lula da Silva in order to give a lucrative deal for Odebrecht in the privatization of a Portuguese company. Other politicians suspected of receiving bribes are Paulo Portas, former CDS leader, and other PS and PSD politicians.  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/portugal/detalhe/justica-portuguesa-pede-ao-brasil-pesquisa-por-nomes-vip-nos-sistemas-da-odebrecht)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2021, 03:41:40 PM
Ok, seriously, Ventura's campaign is getting crazy. Seriously, this happened:


Maria Vieira, actress/comedian/TV presenter and a fervent CHEGA supporter, singing Happy birthday to Ventura yesterday. (Ventura's birthday was yesterday)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2021, 06:06:27 PM
2021 Presidential campiagn: More TV broadcasts from the candidates

João Ferreira:



Tiago Mayan Gonçalves:



Tino de Rans:



Marisa Matias:



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2021, 07:35:37 AM
Early voting day: 246,880 voters, myself included, are registered to cast an early ballot today. However, there seems to be long lines in many places according to the media. In Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra and Braga there are lines of people waiting to vote: In Braga, the situation was this:


In my hometown, around 1,400 voters are registered to vote early and no lines are occurring, but I will only vote late, at around 6pm. Polls close at 7pm.

Also, more than 10,000 voters that are confined, 10,334 to be precise, have asked for to vote early so far. (https://observador.pt/2021/01/17/presidenciais-mais-de-10-mil-pessoas-em-confinamento-ja-pediram-para-votar/) The number could still grow as the deadline is midnight tonight. Next week, election officials will collect the ballots in these voters homes.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2021, 07:50:20 AM
Lines in Lisbon city:


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2021, 02:35:41 PM
Polls have closed for early voting. Long lines and people waiting a long time, more than an hour in some cases, were reported during the day. Few precincts available were the reason.

The turnout rates for early voting are still unknown, but it will probably be released during tomorrow or so.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2021, 07:26:07 AM
Final debate: On the radio debate, President Marcelo criticizes the government and the PSD, as Ventura missed the debate.


Quote
Covid-19. Marcelo says there was a failure in the "preview of the third wave"

The final debate, broadcast by 3 radios, RR, TSF and Antena 1, was held this morning. 6 of the 7 candidates were present as André Ventura skipped the debate because he is campaigning the North of the country. The highlight of the debate was really President Marcelo attacks and criticisms towards the government and the PSD. To the government, the President said that Costa didn't forsee a 3rd wave and that more restrictive measures would be not needed. Regarding the PSD, Marcelo accused his own party of transforming Ventura in the "center pole" of the political system and he would demand a written agreement between CHEGA and other parties. Ana Gomes pressed on the issue of corruption saying that Justice is unequal between the rich and poor and that the fight against corruption is staled. She also continued her criticisms towards CHEGA, accusing President Marcelo of normalizing these kind of parties. Marisa Matias talked about the current NHS crisis because of Covid and demanded that the private sector to be requested by the government in order to help the NHS. She added that President Marcelo is "blockade force" in several topics currently and criticized Marcelo's doubts about the regionalization of the country.

João Ferreira said that the President should lead a "relaunch of the country" by pressuring for spending in the NHS, better wages and conditions for workers and a special attention for national production. Tiago Mayan criticized the erratic Covid strategy of the government and accused President Marcelo of forgeting the problems facing nursing homes currently. He trashed the government because of the ongoing "CV scandal" surrounding Portugal's pick for EU prosecutor. Tino de Rans criticized all candidates present for continuing to campaign on the streets when people are being forced to stay home, saying the politicians need to be an example. He supports more aid to the economy and criticized Marcelo for his over presence in everything adding that if he was President he would not talk about miracles or blame others for mistakes in the fight against Covid.

Full debate:



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2021, 10:48:41 AM
2021 Presidential campaign: Controversy in Ventura's campaign events in Braga district.


Quote
The dinner with 170 people, the 2 gypsies called to support Ventura and the vandalized RTP car

Yesterday was really controversial day in André Ventura's campaign. A series of campaign events created a lot of controversy. First is was a dinner in Braga city with 170 people, with no social distance and that it was not even approved by health authorities. All of this in a day that the number of new cases in Portugal reached, again, more than 10,000. When reporters were allowed into the room to cover Ventura's speech, several of his supporters started insulting the media and there almost a fight between some Ventura supporters and a cameraman. A car from the RTP crew was even vandalized with the back window damaged. It's now being reported that the police has identified the owner of the venue and have sent the case to the DA office.

Earlier in the day, at another event, Ventura got the endorsement of two gypsies who left the community. The two gypsies said that the gypsy community doesn't want to integrate in society as it lives still with traditions that no longer serve. But it seems that one of them isn't even a gypsy (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/2021-01-18-a-historia-nao-contada-de-ventura-em-braganca-e-o-video-do-cigano-que-afinal-nao-o-e/) and the other is now sorry for doing that public appearance alongside Ventura. And, finally, during a rally in Guimarães city, just behind the city's castle, Ventura was once again received with protests.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2021, 02:22:59 PM
2021 Presidential election: Early voting for isolated/infected voters well below expectations.


Quote
Presidentials: voting at home and nursing homes with poor adherence

12,906 voters that are isolated, infected or living in nursing homes registered to vote early in their homes. Portugal has currently 135,886 active cases of Covid-19, which means that of these, and excluding nursing homes and isolated voters, just 9.5% of these voters requested a ballot. The difficulties and fears of this new kind of voting way may be the reason. Many mayors and local authorities have expressed doubts about this model of voting saying it's confusing and not very safe. During this week, election officials will collect ballots at the homes of people isolated, infected or in nursing homes.

Regarding yesterday's early voting, the turnout rate is still preliminary, but with the data of 231 of 308 municipalities, the current turnout rate is 83%.  (https://rr.sapo.pt/2021/01/18/politica/voto-antecipado-mais-de-80-dos-inscritos-conseguiram-votar/noticia/222917/)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on January 19, 2021, 01:07:56 AM
I follow an artist on twitter and they posted this, what are our portuguese poster's thoughts (hopefully I am not derailing)



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2021, 06:35:37 AM
A bit overreacting because Ventura has absolutely no chance of winning. His race is more for 2nd place rather than 1st place. Of course it will have consequences to the political system, his possible second finish. However, it isn't just the media, IMO, who are always talking about him, the left have been making the same mistakes that others have done with parties or candidates similar to Ventura: talking over and over again about him and basically making their campaigns all about being against Ventura. After all this time, they don't realise they are falling into a trap.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 19, 2021, 08:31:32 AM
Yes, but experience shows that just ignoring the populist right often doesn't work either.

Its not the left/liberals attacking them per se that is the problem - rather that they too often do so in a way that doesn't resonate with those who are the target audience for Ventura et al.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2021, 09:44:59 AM
Yes, but experience shows that just ignoring the populist right often doesn't work either.

Its not the left/liberals attacking them per se that is the problem - rather that they too often do so in a way that doesn't resonate with those who are the target audience for Ventura et al.
There's a reason why it was the center-right candidates, Marcelo and Tiago Mayan, and you can also add Tino de Rans, that were the few candidates able to put Ventura on defense and off guard. The left candidates, in my view, entered in this fight using the most stupid argument: ilegalize CHEGA. Of course that would not work and it was clear in the debates that the left candidates, especially Marisa Matias, were failing spectacularly in putting Ventura in his place. Even Ana Gomes, who has a very good anti-corruption record, failed to throw to Ventura's face all of his contradictions surrounding corruption and went to talk about CHEGA being illegal and so on. It didn't work and it doesn't work.

Ventura is not like Abascal or Le Pen. Like them or loathe them, they believe in what they say, and that's not the case with Ventura. He's an actor playing a kind of rhetoric that isn't his real beliefs and the center-right candidates understood that and that was visible in the debates.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2021, 06:08:52 PM
PM Q&A debate in Parliament: Costa now admits he could close down schools if the UK variant becomes dominant:


Quote
António Costa admits closing schools if English strain becomes dominant

PM António Costa came to Parliament, today, in the wake of the new measures for the 2nd lockdown, which are being classified as too little and too late. Costa was confronted by the PSD which accused the PM of creating a "make-believe lockdown" rather than a real one and that he isn't doing his job. The PSD pressed for school closing and more strict and rigorous lockdown. Costa responded said he would do everything in his power to keep schools open, but recognized that if the situation becomes even worse and the English strain becomes dominates, he would close schools. CDS also, like the PSD, pressed for a more harder lockdown and asked the PM what would he have done during Christmas if he had the current data. The PM said that if he had known what was coming, he wouldn't had opened and alleviate the then restrictions, adding he has full conscience of what he did and accepts full responsibility.

The left parties, BE and CDU, accused the rightwing parties of being hypocrites by attacking the government and that no one has a miracle solution for the current situation. BE pressed the government to force the private sector to help the NHS, but Costa said that for the moment that isn't necessary. CDU, mainly PCP, demanded that the government should buy vaccines outside the EU plan, an idea Costa rejected by saying that it would be dangerous.

Also, a poll released by RTP shows that a majority of voters want schools to close (54%) (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/sondagem-portugueses-a-favor-do-fecho-de-escolas-e-disponiveis-para-confinamento-semelhante-a-2020_n1290754), while 38% are against. 77% want a lockdown equal to the one in March/April and voters are deeply divided in the idea of postponing the Presidential elections (which is impossible right now): 47% against, 46% in favour.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2021, 07:18:26 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Early voting for isolated/infected voters started but some complicated issues have emerged.


Quote
Confined people who asked for early voting were not at home to vote

Early voting for voters isolated/infected or in nursing homes started today with several election official going to each voters houses to collect ballots. Almost 13,000 voters registered to vote this way, a number well bellow expectations. But, some worrying situations are occurring. The chairman of the municipalities association, PS Mayor of Coimbra Manuel Machado, said that election workers are finding out that several voters that registered because they were infected or isolated, weren't in their homes. Mr Machado said that election officials report to the police these situations, but he didn't said a precise number of cases only said that the number is well above what was expected.

Early voting for overseas voters also ended and a record 5,400 voters cast an early ballot. (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/eleicoes-presidenciais/2021-01-19-Presidenciais.-Votacao-antecipada-no-estrangeiro-regista-maior-adesao-de-sempre) This number is higher than the early votes cast overseas in the 2019 elections, and almost 40% of the total ballots cast overseas in the 2016 presidential election. During 23 and 24 January, polling stations for overseas voters will be open in 115 Portuguese consulates/embassies in 73 different countries. However, the turnout rate will still be massively low as there are more than 1.4 million registered voters overseas.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 20, 2021, 09:42:13 AM
2021 Presidential election: Election researchers predict an 60-70% abstention rate.


Quote
Presidentials. Researchers admit record abstention, between 60% and 70%

The turnout rate for next Sunday's Presidential election is becoming a real source of worry for the campaigns, many election researchers and also pollesters. A "perfect storm" could put the turnout rate in this Presidential election in the lowest level ever. A combination of fear of infection because of the pandemic, the forgone conclusion result and voters disinterest in politics could led to a record abstention rate. According to election researchers, all reelection elections since 1991, 1991, 2001 and 2011, have seen a 10% drop in turnout rates creating an "iô-iô" trend. Plus, the fact that more than 1 million voters are registered, now, overseas will also force an abstention rate increase. All of this factors make it difficult to predict the impact in the final election results.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 20, 2021, 10:54:46 AM
Campaign update:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa campaigned in Lisbon and said that the closure of schools will be pondered:

Quote
Marcelo announces that school closings will be considered
During a campaign event in an University in Lisbon, Marcelo said the the closure of schools will be considered and he also suggest that he might suspend his campaign in the pandemic situation in Portugal gets even worse.

Ana Gomes warns that Marcelo wants to bring back the right to power at the same time many socialists are announcing their support for Marcelo:

Quote
Ana Gomes is not “surprised” by the list of socialists who support Marcelo. "I know I disturb the centrão of interests"
Ana Gomes is warning that President Marcelo, if reelected, will bring back the right to power and that she doesn't conceive that the socialists are voting for the candidate of the right. She added that unlike Marcelo, she isn't aligned with the "centrão" of special interests.

André Ventura received by the loudest protests against him in Coimbra city:

Quote
André Ventura is received by a demonstration when leaving the rally in Coimbra
Ventura was once again received by protests in Coimbra city, while he was visiting the tomb of King Afonso Henriques (1143-1185). As he was living the church, a loud protest erupted. Ventura then said that he has proof that many of this protests are being financed by the BE and will file a complaint against them. BE is denying vehemently the charges.

João Ferreira campaigned in Serpa, Beja district:

João Ferreira spent the day on Beja district, a PCP stronghold, where he talked to small businesses and supported the idea of scraping the 2013 local reform that merged several parishes.

Marisa Matias held another virtual rally and received the support of Brazilian singer Chico Buarque:

Marisa Matias held another virtual rally where she received the support of several people like Pilar del Rio, José Saramago widow. She also received earlier in the week the support of Brazilian singer Chico Buarque.

The other candidates have done no public campaigning or are conducting a digital campaign like Tino de Rans and Tiago Mayan


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 20, 2021, 03:24:23 PM
CESOP–UCP poll for RTP/Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/sondagem-marcelo-vence-presidenciais-a-primeira-e-ana-gomes-e-segunda_n1290841)

Vote share %:

63% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-5)
14% Ana Gomes (+1)
10% André Ventura (+2)
   5% João Ferreira (nc)
   3% Marisa Matias (-2)
   3% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+2)
   2% Tino de Rans (new)

Poll conducted between 11 and 14 January 2021. Polled 2,001 voters. MoE of 2.20%.

Interesting note by the polling company:
Quote
CESOP leaves a note that it is not possible to predict a value for abstention from these responses.

The sample was also asked about "the fear of voting". They answered that they had “no fear” 57%, “little fear” 8%, “some fear” 24% and “very fear” 9%.

CESOP takes this data to make a new estimate of votes, stating that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is "the candidate most affected by the 'fear of voting' [not indicating however] that victory in the first round is at risk".

On the other hand, “the distance of 4 percentage points between AG [Ana Gomes] and AV [André Ventura] drops to 2 percentage points among people without fear. Bearing in mind the difficult week foreseen in Portuguese hospitals, it cannot be excluded that the difference between AG and AV may decrease or even turn. Of course, with the opposite sign, we could to see a concentration of votes on the left with benefit for AG and loss for MM [Marisa Matias] and JF [João Ferreira] ”.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2021, 05:39:40 AM
Final early voting numbers: 80.16% of voters who registered to vote early, cast a ballot.  (https://eco.sapo.pt/2021/01/21/80-dos-inscritos-votaram-no-domingo-para-as-presidenciais/)

Of the 246,880 voters that registered to vote early last Sunday, 197,903 voters, 80.16%, did so. Long lines because of few polling stations occurred all across the country and some voters gave up in voting last Sunday. They can still vote this Sunday, January 24. Overall, around 215,000 ballots have been already cast for the 2021 Presidential election, if you add the early voting for prisoners, hospitalized voters, isolated/infected voters and voters overall.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2021, 10:19:50 AM
President Marcelo dramatizes the call to vote: "If abstention is at 70%, a 2nd round is probable".


Quote
Videos - Marcelo points to second round as probable if abstention in the Presidential election reaches 70%

President Marcelo is dramatizing the prospect of a 2nd round. Talking to students in a school in Lisbon, the President said the if the abstention rate reaches 70%, a 2nd round is almost inevitable as a high abstention rate punishes the most those candidate who have the highest voting intention, meaning, President Marcelo himself. Marcelo also said he's responsible for everything good of bad that happens in the Covid-19 fight, because at the end of the day his signature is always needed. The current pandemic situation in Portugal is very bad, with more than 10,000 new cases and 200 deaths daily, which is making many pundits and analysts wonder how will the Sunday elections plays out.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2021, 10:46:21 AM
Woman heckled President Marcelo during his campaign stop in Porto city:




A woman put President Marcelo in an uncomfortable situation this morning in Porto city. The woman, very angry towards Marcelo, took off her mask while talking with the President even though Marcelo repeatedly asked the woman to put her mask back on. The woman said that what happened in the US two weeks ago with the invasion of the Capitol, should happen in Portugal as Parliament is full of "thieves" and they should be thrown out. She pressed on to say she voted for Marcelo in 2016, but now she's voting for Ana Gomes because she's a great woman. She also said that Marcelo should retire because he's passed his age.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2021, 11:57:59 AM
The story of the U-turn regarding schools:


Quote
The film of the U-turn that led to the closure of schools (with a push from Marcelo)

Since last week, the idea of closing schools to prevent more infections of Covid has been defended by many. In the meeting with specialists, last week, the idea was defended by many specialists but rejected by a few. The government decided to maintain schools open as closing them would do much more harm to students learning than good. Plus, the view was that schools weren't the main focus or one of the most dangerous places of Covid spreading. On the other hand, the opposition parties, mainly the PSD, said that schools should be closed for students above 12 years old. The government rejected the idea and the PM said, last Thursday that closing schools would "destroy a generation". The debate dragged on during the weekend as the Covid numbers got worse and worse. By Monday, more and more support was growing for schools closures, but Costa decided still to not close schools. But, the PM soon changed his tone. The next day, in Parliament, Costa publicly admitted he would consider closing schools if necessary. By Wednesday, it was confusion. During the morning the Health secretary said to reporters that there was a big consensus to maintain schools open, but a few hours later, President Marcelo said that he talked, by phone, with Costa and that a decision about closing schools would happen in the next few hours. At the same time, the PSD publicly asks the government to close schools quickly. The PS attacks the PSD for using the pandemic for political reasons, but shortly after that, the Health minister, Marta Temido, in an interview to RTP, said that school closures were a real possibility. In the early hours of the morning, the decision was made, schools would be closed.

A very dramatic and chaotic 24 hours in the government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2021, 12:48:21 PM
Violence in André Ventura's rally in Setúbal city. Ventura was hit with objects thrown by protesters:  (https://observador.pt/2021/01/21/comicio-de-ventura-termina-com-carga-policial-lider-do-chega-atingido-por-objetos/)




André Ventura's campaign event in Setúbal city ended in violence with protesters throwing several objects towards Ventura and some seem to have hit the candidate. He was rushed to his car by security. Riot police was on the campaign site and tried to create a security area but tensions escalated between the police and protesters and one protester was arested by the police. The arrest created more clashes between the police and protesters with police using force and pepper sprays to disperse the protesters. It's still unclear if Ventura was injured.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2021, 02:48:48 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Candidates condemn the attack against Ventura


Quote
Presidential candidates condemn violent protest against Ventura

At least 3 candidates, Ana Gomes, Marisa Matias and Tiago Mayan have condemn the attack on André Ventura during a campaign event in Setúbal city. Ana Gomes reacted by saying, on twitter, that she condemns violence and no one should act in her behalf:
Quote
I am against any kind of violent protest against any candidate. No one acts violently on my behalf

Marisa Matias also recated by saying that hate cannot be defeated with violence and it can only be defeated throw "democratic struggle":
Quote
Hate is not defeated with violence. We are a better country than the extreme right candidate and we will be able to win it in the democratic struggle


Tiago Mayan Gonçalves wrote, also on twitter, that he condemns any violent act or threat against anyone:
Quote
I totally condemn any form of violence, threat or coercion, wherever it comes from, address candidates, journalists or any other citizens

PSD leader, Rui Rio, also reacted to the incident. In a press conference, Mr Rio also condemned the violence and thanked the police for restoring order and doing the right thing.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 21, 2021, 05:16:06 PM
André Ventura's campaign event in Setúbal city ended in violence with protesters throwing several objects towards Ventura and some seem to have hit the candidate. He was rushed to his car by security. Riot police was on the campaign site and tried to create a security area but tensions escalated between the police and protesters and one protester was arested by the police. The arrest created more clashes between the police and protesters with police using force and pepper sprays to disperse the protesters. It's still unclear if Ventura was injured.

Thanks, Portuguese Antifa, for your attempt to create sympathy for Ventura. Very smart strategy indeed!

[I obviously condemn this kind of violence]


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2021, 05:50:49 PM
André Ventura's campaign event in Setúbal city ended in violence with protesters throwing several objects towards Ventura and some seem to have hit the candidate. He was rushed to his car by security. Riot police was on the campaign site and tried to create a security area but tensions escalated between the police and protesters and one protester was arested by the police. The arrest created more clashes between the police and protesters with police using force and pepper sprays to disperse the protesters. It's still unclear if Ventura was injured.

Thanks, Portuguese Antifa, for your attempt to create sympathy for Ventura. Very smart strategy indeed!

[I obviously condemn this kind of violence]
It seems he was hit by a box of tablets and got a little bruise of his leg, maybe on entering his car so rapidly. But, yeah, all of this doesn't look good neither do the clashes afterwards with the police.

Curiously, in 1986, during this same period of the campaign, Mário Soares was also hit with objects but in this case some people got really injured. This incident, called the Marinha Grande incident, is believed to have propelled Soares to 2nd place in the 1st round, and then he won the 2nd round by a 51% to 49% against Freitas do Amaral. Of course, Ventura is no Soares, obviously, but still it's an interesting curiosity.

Will he have some kind of election "sympathy" bump? Don't know honestly, the circumstances of this election are so complicated that it's very difficult to predict. There will probably be a flood of polls in the next few hours, also.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2021, 06:11:57 PM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC/Expresso newspaper:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/eleicoes-presidenciais/2021-01-22-Presidenciais.-Sondagem-da-vitoria-a-Marcelo-na-primeira-volta)

Vote share %:

58.0% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-8.0)
14.5% Ana Gomes (+1.5)
12.5% André Ventura (+3.5)
   6.0% Marisa Matias (-1.0)
   6.0% João Ferreira (+1.0)
   2.0% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (new)
   1.0% Tino de Rans (new)

Poll conducted 12 and 18 January 2021. Polled 1,210 voters. MoE of 3.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2021, 05:41:56 AM
More polls:

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/marcelo-ganha-a-1a-volta-e-ana-gomes-em-segundo-eurosondagem_n1291527)

Vote share %:

61.8% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+1.6)
13.6% Ana Gomes (-1.2)
10.0% André Ventura (-0.1)
  6.0% Marisa Matias (-0.6)
  4.8% João Ferreira (-0.4)
  2.1% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.1)
  1.7% Tino de Rans (+0.7)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 January 2020. Polled 2,533 voters. MoE of 1.95%.

Aximage poll for JN and DN newspapers/TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/marcelo-tem-quase-no-bolso-a-reeleicao-para-presidente-13261073.html)

Vote share %:

59.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.7)
15.4% Ana Gomes (nc)
  9.7% André Ventura (+1.7)
  5.0% João Ferreira (-2.5)
  4.3% Marisa Matias (-1.3)
  3.3% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+2.2)
  1.5% Tino de Rans (new)

41.6% Turnout (+3.0)

Poll conducted between 9 and 15 January 2020. Polled 1,183 voters. MoE of 2.80%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2021, 06:49:46 AM
Other headlines from today, beyond the Presidential election:

António Costa caught in wiretaps surrounding the "Hydrogen case" Supreme Court President wants to destroy the tapes but the DA office wants them to be saved.


Quote
António Costa caught up in the hydrogen case

Expresso newspaper reports, today, that the DA office has caught PM António Costa in wiretaps surrounding the "Hydrogen case". The focus of the wiretaps was the current Environment minister. Other cabinets ministers were also heard in the tapes. The tapes where the PM was in were analysed by the President of the Supreme Court, Justice António Piçarra, who ordered the destruction of the tapes. However, the DA office opposed this decision and now a decision will be made by another judge. The "Hydrogen case" is an investigation surrounding possible corrupt deals regarding the construction of hydrogen plants in Sines. The environment minister and his secretary are suspected of favouring a consortium led by Energies of Portugal (EDP) in this multi million dollar project. However, until now, no one has been accused. The office of the PM was unaware of the tapes, but, to Expresso newspaper, they "thanked the info".

Also, the mayor of Reguengos de Monsaraz, Évora, has taken the Covid vaccine even though he isn't from any priority group:


Quote
Mayor of Reguengos de Monsaraz took a vaccine for Covid-19 without belonging to any priority group

Another controversy surrounding Reguengos de Monsaraz. After the village made headlines for a massive outbrake, in July, in a nursing home, that revealed bad management, the tiny Alentejo village in again in the headlines. The mayor of the village, José Calixto from the PS, took the Covid vaccine even though he isn't part of any priority group. According to the media, Mr Calisto got the vaccine because he's chairman of the same nursing home that was accused of bad management during last summer's outbrake. Mr Calisto wrote on social media that he should be in a "priority group" because of his position in the nursing home. However, the national coordinator of the Covid-19 vaccine, Francisco Ramos, has already said that this case is an improper use of the vaccine and that the mayor should not have been vaccinated.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 22, 2021, 08:48:25 AM
André Ventura's campaign event in Setúbal city ended in violence with protesters throwing several objects towards Ventura and some seem to have hit the candidate. He was rushed to his car by security. Riot police was on the campaign site and tried to create a security area but tensions escalated between the police and protesters and one protester was arested by the police. The arrest created more clashes between the police and protesters with police using force and pepper sprays to disperse the protesters. It's still unclear if Ventura was injured.

Thanks, Portuguese Antifa, for your attempt to create sympathy for Ventura. Very smart strategy indeed!

[I obviously condemn this kind of violence]

Well for some of those types, the more support he gets the better.

Its "sharpening the contradictions" and all that, don'tcha know?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2021, 10:58:53 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Government admits they are having difficulty in opening polling stations in at least 15 municipalities.


Quote
Government admits problems in forming polling stations in 15 municipalities

The government is having difficulty in forming and then opening polling stations for Sunday's election because of the pandemic. Many poll workers have become infected, some isolated and others are just afraid of being all day in polling stations. In at least 15 municipalities, undisclosed however, there are problems in opening polling stations. Many city halls also report they are having difficulty in finding poll workers for election day, and some city halls are actually testing poll workers before Sunday. The issue is quite normal in every election, although in much less extent, but this time is worse because, of course, of the pandemic and the fact that the number polling stations will grow considerably compared with previous elections. The plan is to open more than 12,000 polling stations across the country, which will have more than 65,000 polling workers.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2021, 12:39:16 PM
Not related with the Presidential elections, but still interesting: 1st poll for the September/October local elections was released today:

Eurosondagem poll for Funchal city (104,000 inhabitants) - PS incumbent

Vote share % (compared with 2017)

44.2% PS/BE/PDR/NC (+2.1), 6 seats (nc)
42.5% PSD/CDS (+1.9), 5 (nc)
   2.2% CHEGA (new), 0
   2.1% CDU (-1.5), 0
   1.1% JPP (new), 0
   1.0% PTP (-1.2), 0
   7.0% Others/Invalid (-4.5), 0

Poll conducted between 14 and 19 January 2021 in Funchal city. Polled 1,220 voters. MoE of 2.81%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2021, 03:22:09 PM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:  (https://observador.pt/interativo/sondagens-eleicoes-presidenciais-2021/)

Vote share %:

65.4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.3)
12.3% Ana Gomes (+1.5)
  9.0% André Ventura (-2.0)
  4.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.9)
  3.9% João Ferreira (+0.7)
  3.5% Marisa Matias (-0.5)
  1.8% Tino de Rans (-0.3)

Poll conducted between 7-10 and 14-18 January 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2021, 06:32:29 PM
The campaign is over and tomorrow will be that "medieval" practice called reflection day. The candidates spent the last hours of the campaign appealing for voters to turnout to vote next Sunday:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa:

Quote
Presidentials 2021: Marcelo dramatizes election: “This is a decisive moment”

President Marcelo spent the last day of the campaign in his grandmother parish in Cabeceiras de Basto. Marcelo visited a library named after him, pictured above, and there he gave a speech where he stressed the "decisive moment" these elections occur and that voting is very important next Sunday.

Ana Gomes:

Quote
With Manoel Baptista, my representative to Alto Minho, and supporters of JS #VianadoCastelo, I visited Associação Casulo Abrigo today that supports homeless people. Many affected by dementia. Sad that State does not care to find solutions and later to support those who seek to find them.
Ana Gomes spent the day in Viana do Castelo where he visited a series of charity institutes. During the evening she did a virtual rally where she asked for a unity of the left and she attacked President Marcelo for downplaying André Ventura.

André Ventura:

Quote
Ventura: Marcelo “is an accomplice of this Government and must fall” with the fall of Costa
André Ventura closed his campaign with a rally of around 70 people in Lisbon city where he trashed Marcelo and accused him of being an "accomplice" of the current PS government. He added that many of Marcelo's positions lately are "shamefull" and that election night promises to be a gale.

Marisa Matias:

Quote
Marisa Matias: “If the whole left vote, we can do it.
Marisa Matias ended her campaign with a virtual rally in Coimbra city where she appealed for votes because according to her "the tide" has turned in the campaign. She said that solidarity is winning and it will defeat the speech of hate and insult.

João Ferreira:

Quote
Sunday it's in the hands of each one to give strength to the candidacy that more clearly defends the rights of the Portuguese people, of whom it commits itself to defend, to fulfill and to enforce the Constitution and the project of future registered in it.
João Ferreira ended his campaign with a rally in Rossio square in Lisbon city where he received praise from PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa and where he said that Sunday's election will be important as it will weigh on the future of people and on how just they will be treated.

Tiago Mayan Gonçalves:

Quote
Moment of Truth: Mayan was not surprised by the poll, but he hopes that will be reflected on Sunday
Tiago Mayan Gonçalves also held a virtual rally with several supporters on line in Porto city. Talking to the media after the rally, he commented the results of the TVI poll that puts him in 4th place, saying he's not surprised by the result and that he expects it to happen on Sunday.

Tino de Rans (Vitorino Silva) :

Quote
Campaign closure via Zoom #PortugalcomTino #VitorinoSilva
Tino de Rans held another election chat in the last day of the campaign. During the day he talked to reporters at his home in Rans parish, Penafiel, and he said he's optimist about the results on Sunday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2021, 10:40:15 AM
Voting has begun for voters overseas. Today and tomorrow, overseas voters can cast a ballot in 177 polling stations located in Portuguese consulates and embassies across the world. A total of 1,550,063 voters are registered overseas, and of these around 5,400 voters voted early, just 0.35% of the registered voters overseas. Overseas turnout is expected to be very, very low, around 1-3%, as there is no mail voting in this election, unlike the general elections, and voters have to go personally to embassies and consulates in order to vote.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2021, 03:08:36 PM
A bit of topic, but this is the hilarious cover, IMO, of Inimigo Público (Public Enemy) newspaper, a satirical weekly newspaper within Público newspaper, about the 2021 Presidential elections:



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2021, 05:58:59 PM
Covid-19 pandemic: Agriculture minister is the 6th cabinet minister to be infected with the virus.


Quote
Agriculture Minister tests positive for covid-19

The Agriculture minister, Maria do Céu Antunes, has tested positive for the coronavirus. She is the 6th cabinet minister to be infected with Covid-19. She was set to be present in several EU meeting regarding the Portuguese Presidency and in the preparations for that trip, she tested positive. Currently, there are 4 minister isolated and infected with the virus. The environment minister and the sea affairs minister are also isolated because of a high risk contact, but they have tested negative. Last year, 2 ministers were also infected.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2021, 07:07:29 PM
Election day has arrived.

There are 10,865,010 registered voters, in which 9,314,947 are registered in Portugal itself and 1,550,063 overseas. Voters will be able to vote in 12,273 polling stations across the country, 177 overseas. There are also 62,650 polling workers in these elections.

Election results and turnout updates will be posted in the official election page:

https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

Polls open at 8am and close at 7pm. Azores polls open and close one hour later due to the time difference. At 8pm, networks will release exit polls and it seems the 4 exit polls will be released at that hour.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:07:05 AM
Polls opened at 8am. In some places, there were some lines of voters awaiting as poll workers were dumping the early votes into ballot boxes. The situation was normalized across the country by around 9am.


Quote
Presidential elections: Opening of polling places with some lines due to early votes


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:29:06 AM
Update: There are reports of some big lines in some polling stations in the main cities, Porto and Lisbon.

Lines in Sintra, Lisbon


There will be a turnout update in 1 hour and a half, at 1pm.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:56:35 AM
Voting in Arruda dos Vinhos, Lisbon:

Quote
In a new place, to ensure social distance, the voting takes place with all normality in the parish of Arruda dos Vinhos.

Here there is also a second vote for the RTP survey (made on paper and pen) and TVI / Obs (on tablet).


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 07:13:35 AM
Of the candidates running, Marisa Matias, João Ferreira, Tino de Rans and Tiago Mayan Gonçalves have already cast their ballots.

Live updates:

Observador: https://observador.pt/liveblogs/presidenciais-antonio-costa-apela-ao-voto/#liveblog-entry-514402

Público: https://www.publico.pt/2021/01/24/politica/noticia/eleicoes-portugueses-escolhem-presidente-republica-antonio-costa-apela-voto-1947665

Expresso: https://expresso.pt/presidenciais2021/2021-01-24-Presidenciais-em-direto-Portugueses-formam-longas-filas-para-votar-em-seguranca


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 07:32:02 AM
There are a few protests and boycots in this election. In Montalegre, Vila Real, protesters blocked one polling station to protest against the exploration of lithium in that municipality.

In one Barcelos parish, Braga, some are protesting against the lack of water sanitation in the parish and advising abstention.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 08:00:51 AM
12pm turnout numbers:

2021: 17.07% (+1.25%)
2016: 15.82%
2011: 13.39%
2006: 19.32%

Very high turnout so far. Next turnout update at 5pm with numbers from 4pm.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Rikschard on January 24, 2021, 08:19:36 AM
12pm turnout numbers:

2021: 17.07% (+1.25%)
2016: 15.82%
2011: 13.39%
2006: 19.32%

Very high turnout so far. Next turnout update at 5pm with numbers from 4pm.

Is early voting already counted in that number?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 08:25:12 AM
12pm turnout numbers:

2021: 17.07% (+1.25%)
2016: 15.82%
2011: 13.39%
2006: 19.32%

Very high turnout so far. Next turnout update at 5pm with numbers from 4pm.

Is early voting already counted in that number?
I assume so because polling workers had to dump early ballots in ballot boxes as polls opened and check voters registrations. And the turnout figures include the 1,5 million voters overseas so around 1,855,000 voters have already cast a ballot.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 08:57:02 AM
In my hometown, there are some lines at polling places also:



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 10:48:48 AM
All the candidates have already voted. Long lines continue to be seen mainly in the main urban centers. Social distance and covid safety rules are delaying voting by a bit. Some voters are waiting almost one hour to cast a ballot.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 11:09:11 AM
The ballot every single voter received:

*Click of the photo to see the full ballot.

The first candidate on the list, Eduardo Baptista, will be counted as invalid as his candidacy was declared invalid for lack of signatures, but because of tight timetables, the ballots were printed before the Court ruling that rejected his candidacy.

Also, 45 minutes until the next turnout update.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2021, 11:14:11 AM
Why do Portuguese people have so many names ?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 11:17:31 AM
Why do Portuguese people have so many names ?
Normally, one person has 1 or 2 names, like João Maria or Filipe Miguel, and then you add the parents, mother and father, surnames, which could also have 1 or 2 surnames, thus having a long name.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: njwes on January 24, 2021, 11:23:27 AM
Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2021, 11:25:03 AM
Why do Portuguese people have so many names ?
Normally, one person has 1 or 2 names, like João Maria or Filipe Miguel, and then you add the parents, mother and father, surnames, which could also have 1 or 2 surnames, thus having a long name.

It's strange to see 70 year old canddiates who have the surnames of their parents printed on a ballot.

On a birth certificate maybe yes, but for a 70 year old candidate ?

Funny tradition.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2021, 11:26:41 AM
Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

I think that is because there are still some illiterate people among the older (or even younger) generations, who like to vote on pictures of the candidates.

But there may be other reasons too.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 11:31:49 AM
Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

I think that is because there are still some illiterate people among the older (or even younger) generations, who like to vote on pictures of the candidates.

But there may be other reasons too.
Yes, I believe that's the reason also. Having the portrait of the candidates on the ballot was done in the 70's, in the first elections, because, I assume, of the high rate of illiteracy in Portugal that in 1976, year of the first Presidential election, was around 25% of the population. So many voters would only recognize candidates by their portrait. Nowadays, I believe it's just a formality.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 11:33:33 AM
Why do Portuguese people have so many names ?
Normally, one person has 1 or 2 names, like João Maria or Filipe Miguel, and then you add the parents, mother and father, surnames, which could also have 1 or 2 surnames, thus having a long name.

It's strange to see 70 year old canddiates who have the surnames of their parents printed on a ballot.

On a birth certificate maybe yes, but for a 70 year old candidate ?

Funny tradition.
Forgot also, and some women also add their husband surnames to their name. It's tradition, but these are the legal names, normally people are known for their first name and last surname.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 24, 2021, 11:40:08 AM
Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.
She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too :P


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 11:42:56 AM
Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.
She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too :P
Well, there's the urban legend that Ana Gomes is just comedian Herman José disguised as a woman:

;D ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 12:00:55 PM
4pm turnout numbers:

2021: 35.44% (-2.25%)
2016: 37.69%
2011: 35.16%
2006: 45.56%

It's official. Turnout will not reach the low levels many were predicting, myself included, of just 30%. It will be much higher than that. :D

Polls close in mainland Portugal and Madeira in 2 hours. In Azores, they will close 1 hour later.



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 24, 2021, 12:11:00 PM
4pm turnout numbers:

2021: 35.44% (-2.25%)
2016: 37.69%
2011: 35.16%
2006: 45.56%

It's official. Turnout will not reach the low levels many were predicting, myself included, of just 30%. It will be much higher than that. :D

Beautiful news!

Hopefully the voting results will be just as beautiful as the turnout numbers.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 12:17:00 PM
4pm turnout numbers:

2021: 35.44% (-2.25%)
2016: 37.69%
2011: 35.16%
2006: 45.56%

It's official. Turnout will not reach the low levels many were predicting, myself included, of just 30%. It will be much higher than that. :D

Beautiful news!

Hopefully the voting results will be just as beautiful as the turnout numbers.
We'll see. Polling was showing that Marcelo was the most punished candidate if turnout was really low, 30% or bellow that, and Ventura one of the most benefited. But, only the results will prove this.

And, Pedro Magalhães, one of Portugal leading pollsters and head of SIC/Expresso exit poll, posted this:

Quote
With a turnout of 35.4% at 4pm, we already know one thing: a cycle has been interrupted. The cycle started in 2001, in which elections with incumbent presidents had a much lower participation than the previous election. This "very inferior" will not occur.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 12:31:20 PM
In terms of the number of ballots cast, at 4pm, 3,847,370 ballots were cast according to Observador newspaper. That's 175,845 more ballots that at the same hour in 2016.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 24, 2021, 12:39:22 PM
Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.
She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too :P
Well, there's the urban legend that Ana Gomes is just comedian Herman José disguised as a woman:

;D ;D ;D ;D
Hehe this is what I was referencing to xD

The turnout numbers <3


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 12:47:10 PM
Hehe this is what I was referencing to xD

The turnout numbers <3
Hahaha. I know, I know. ;)

About turnout, lines seem to be dissipating across the country, but in Lisbon there are still some lines of people waiting to vote, it seems.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 12:50:52 PM
For anyone interested, here's the live feed of the TV networks for election night:

RTP1: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp1
RTP3: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3
SIC: https://sic.pt/direto
TVI: https://tviplayer.oil.pt/direto/TVI
TVI24: https://tviplayer.oil.pt/direto/TVI24

I don't think non of them are geoblocked.

Results pages:

https://www.rtp.pt/eleicoes/presidenciais-resultados/2021

https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/afluencia


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 01:23:17 PM
RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Velasco on January 24, 2021, 01:26:40 PM
Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.
She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too :P
Well, there's the urban legend that Ana Gomes is just comedian Herman José disguised as a woman:

;D ;D ;D ;D

"Approaching hot" is a rather sexist remark, as well as the urban legends about Ana Gomes

Said this, attractiveness is a factor that undeniably helps in boosting the popularity of someone (politicians included). But maybe atractiveness works better in TV, because pictures in ballots are neccessarily small. Also, and this is another sign of sexism and male perspective, you seem to forget that more than a half of voters are women. Presumably most of them are heterosexual, thus more sensible to the charles of male candidates looking like JFK or Barack Obama (to put a couple of examples of toung male attractive candidates). Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is not that type of candidate,  but surely he has other qualities that make him popular. For sure there has been never discussion on whether Rebelo is hot or not. This usually hapoens with female candidates


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 01:30:28 PM
CMTV projection says that turnout will be between 42-46%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 01:34:42 PM
Polls close in 26 minutes in mainland Portugal and Madeira. RTP, SIC and TVI will, at that hour, release turnout projections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 01:39:19 PM
Line of people wainting to vote in Lisbon, just after 6pm:




Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 01:55:02 PM
5 minutes until the first polls close.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 24, 2021, 01:55:20 PM
RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.
This is the order I expect. João Ferreira had a better campaign than Marisa, and the rest is pretty much as expected.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 02:00:11 PM
RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.
This is the order I expect. João Ferreira had a better campaign than Marisa, and the rest is pretty much as expected.
We'll see. Twitter is already flooded with "rumored" exit polls, as always.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 02:02:45 PM
Polls have closed in mainland Portugal and Madeira:

Turnout projections:

RTP: 45-50%
SIC: 40-44%
TVI: 41.5-45.5%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 24, 2021, 02:07:51 PM
RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.
This is the order I expect. João Ferreira had a better campaign than Marisa, and the rest is pretty much as expected.

Huh? I remember seeing Matias always above Ferreira in the polls? Do you think there has been a late shift because of their campaigns?
Although granted, the difference was always small and polls are imperfect anyway.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 02:12:19 PM
RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.
This is the order I expect. João Ferreira had a better campaign than Marisa, and the rest is pretty much as expected.

Huh? I remember seeing Matias always above Ferreira in the polls? Do you think there has been a late shift because of their campaigns?
Although granted, the difference was always small and polls are imperfect anyway.
Actually the last polls of the campaign were putting Ferreira above or tied with Marisa Matias. I believe only one poll was putting Matias above Ferreira. Matias could be victim, also, of tactical voting for Ana Gomes. But, all of this are hypothesis. Let's wait for 8pm.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 02:20:49 PM
Almost unanimous claim by pundits on TV: With these turnout numbers, a 2nd round will probably not be needed.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 02:30:56 PM
There are still people voting and wainting in line in Lisbon.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 02:38:39 PM
President Marcelo's press conferences outside his house are always a delight. :D


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 02:44:56 PM
15 minutes...


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 02:55:06 PM
5 minutes...


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:00:40 PM
PRESIDENT MARCELO REELECTED FOR A 2ND TERM.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:03:40 PM
RTP exit poll:

Marcelo: 57-62%
Gomes: 13-16%
Ventura 9-12%
Matias: 3,5-5,5%
Ferreira: 3,5-5,5%
Tiago Mayan: 3-5%
Tino de Rans: 2-4%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:06:18 PM
SIC exit poll:

Marcelo: 55,5-60,5%
Gomes: 13,1-17,1%
Ventura: 10,1-14,1%
Ferreira: 3,3-6,3%
Matias: 2,4-5,4%
Tiago Mayan: 2,3-5,3%
Tino de Rans: 1,3-3,3%

TVI exit poll:

Marcelo: 56,4-60,4%
Gomes: 12,2-16,2%
Ventura: 9,9-13,9%
Tiago Mayan: 2,3-6,3%
Matias: 2,2-6,2%
Ferreira: 2,1-6,1%
Tino de Rans: 0,9-4,9%

CMTV exit poll:

Marcelo: 55,8-60,6%
Gomes: 12,7-16,3%
Ventura: 10,1-13,7%
Matias: 3,1%-5,5%
Tiago Mayan: 3-5,4%
Ferreira: 2,9-5,3%
Tino de Rans: 1,6-4%


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:13:01 PM
Results so far:

51.5% counted:

66.1% Marcelo
12.3% Ventura
  9.3% Gomes
  3.8% Tino de Rans
  3.4% Matias
  3.2% Ferreira
  1.9% Tiago Mayan

Results with maps: https://observador.pt/interativo/presidenciais-veja-aqui-a-contagem-de-votos-ao-minuto-e-freguesia-a-freguesia/


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:22:48 PM
So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 24, 2021, 03:38:08 PM
So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo municipalities.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:39:34 PM
So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.
So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 24, 2021, 03:46:05 PM
So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.
So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:48:45 PM
So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.
So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).
Pundits are basically saying that, overall there are 2 winners tonight: Marcelo and António Costa. President Marcelo because he's reelected easily, and Costa because he's seeing the far-left crumbling, and the far-right and liberals growing which is hurting the PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:51:29 PM
Results so far: 81% of parishes counted (the big urban areas are still out)

63.8% Marcelo
12.5% Ventura
10.4% Gomes
  3.6% Matias
  3.6% Ferreira
  3.6% Tino de Rans
  2.3% Tiago Mayan


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 24, 2021, 03:54:13 PM
Seems Marisa will stay 4th after all. The growth of the far-right is hurting the communists.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: njwes on January 24, 2021, 03:57:12 PM
Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.
She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too :P

Ah oops, I didn't mean any disrespect to her! I just didn't click through to the twitter post with the ballot, and so didn't see her. I actually think she got a good portrait.

Also I'll revise my earlier sentiment re: attractiveness--seeing the entire ballot now, I'll rank João Ferreira along with Marisa Matias in the coveted "borderline-hot-for-a-politician" category  O:)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 24, 2021, 03:58:10 PM
Interestingly Marcelo is below 50% in the expat vote. AG, AV, MM and especially Tiago Mayan overperforming in the diaspora.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:58:23 PM
Seems Marisa will stay 4th after all. The growth of the far-right is hurting the communists.
Yeah, it seems that, but lets wait for Mayan's results. I expect him to do very well in the urban areas.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 24, 2021, 03:59:11 PM
Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.
She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too :P

Ah oops, I didn't mean any disrespect to her! I just didn't click through to the twitter post with the ballot, and so didn't see her. I actually think she got a good portrait.

Also I'll revise my earlier sentiment re: attractiveness--seeing the entire ballot now, I'll rank João Ferreira along with Marisa Matias in the coveted "borderline-hot-for-a-politician" category  O:)

I know, I just couldn't resist making that joke


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 03:59:44 PM
Well, this is historic. Beja just finished counting and Ventura polled ahead of João Ferreira.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 04:01:41 PM
Also, my hometown, Póvoa de Varzim, finished counting:

60.2% Marcelo
13.1% Gomes
12.8% Ventura
  4.2% Tiago Mayan
  3.5% Tino de Rans
  3.3% Matias
  2.8% Ferreira

42.9% Turnout


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 24, 2021, 04:12:56 PM
Well, this is historic. Beja just finished counting and Ventura polled ahead of João Ferreira.

Beja the city or the district?

In any case, RIP. That is historic, and it hurts my soul a bit.

Waiting for Jornal de Notícias articles about PCP - Ventura voters in rural Alentejo diners :P


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: njwes on January 24, 2021, 04:17:25 PM
>20% in Portalegre for Ventura is pretty high!


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Rikschard on January 24, 2021, 04:20:02 PM
Well, this is historic. Beja just finished counting and Ventura polled ahead of João Ferreira.

Interestingly, João Ferreira didn't lose that much, it was 15,6 in 2016 and now 15,0.
The same thing is happened in Portalegre: right now Ventura gained 20% while Ferreira actually improved from 7,1 to 7,3.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on January 24, 2021, 04:36:17 PM
So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.
So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).
Pundits are basically saying that, overall there are 2 winners tonight: Marcelo and António Costa. President Marcelo because he's reelected easily, and Costa because he's seeing the far-left crumbling, and the far-right and liberals growing which is hurting the PSD.

I think we need to put an end to this idea that the growth of the far right is Actually Good for the center left. What center-left governments or parties in Europe have benefited politically from the rise of the far right? Not Labour, not the PS in France, not really the SPD or the Greens, and it doesn't look like the PSOE has either. Their victories (and Costa's) came before the far-right really sprang up in their countries.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 24, 2021, 04:41:33 PM
So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.
So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).
Pundits are basically saying that, overall there are 2 winners tonight: Marcelo and António Costa. President Marcelo because he's reelected easily, and Costa because he's seeing the far-left crumbling, and the far-right and liberals growing which is hurting the PSD.

I think we need to put an end to this idea that the growth of the far right is Actually Good for the center left. What center-left governments or parties in Europe have benefited politically from the rise of the far right? Not Labour, not the PS in France, not really the SPD or the Greens, and it doesn't look like the PSOE has either. Their victories (and Costa's) came before the far-right really sprang up in their countries.
I agree, and this election shows that many of the people who are currently voting for the left in Portugal are not necessarily leftists or loyal to the left.

It might benefit the far-left in the long run, however.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 24, 2021, 04:47:26 PM
Ana Gomes now in 2nd. We can sleep in peace.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 05:01:20 PM
Ana Gomes now in 2nd. We can sleep in peace.
It's still very close between the two, but there's still a lot out from Lisbon. Also, Matias is now 4th.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 24, 2021, 05:07:07 PM

I think we need to put an end to this idea that the growth of the far right is Actually Good for the center left. What center-left governments or parties in Europe have benefited politically from the rise of the far right? Not Labour, not the PS in France, not really the SPD or the Greens, and it doesn't look like the PSOE has either. Their victories (and Costa's) came before the far-right really sprang up in their countries.

PSOE definitely has benefited somewhat from the rise of Vox, at least for now. Though of course the event they really benefited from was less so the rise of Vox (though it did make for a useful rallying cry for them) and more so the utter collapse of Podemos as well as the division in 3 of the Spanish right, which gets heavily penalized by Spain's electoral system

Similarly, the main event PSOE has been hurt by in recent times was the rise of Podemos; and much of their traditional base in Catalonia going secessionist and changing their vote to Podemos first and ERC later. There is a reason why Barcelona is one of only 2 provinces that have never voted for a right of centre party, not even in 2011.

Then again current Spanish polling thinks that while PSOE would still win a plurality, it would be nearly impossible for them to make a government (PP-Vox-Cs polling around 165-170 seats, with 176 needed for a majority)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 05:26:36 PM
So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo towns.
So far, Marcelo has won the PCP bastion of Avis. It's the first time ever a PCP candidacy, or supported by, loses that municipality.

Not a good sign for the far-left (and for my own prediction).
Pundits are basically saying that, overall there are 2 winners tonight: Marcelo and António Costa. President Marcelo because he's reelected easily, and Costa because he's seeing the far-left crumbling, and the far-right and liberals growing which is hurting the PSD.

I think we need to put an end to this idea that the growth of the far right is Actually Good for the center left. What center-left governments or parties in Europe have benefited politically from the rise of the far right? Not Labour, not the PS in France, not really the SPD or the Greens, and it doesn't look like the PSOE has either. Their victories (and Costa's) came before the far-right really sprang up in their countries.
The idea about the "Costa victory" theory is that with the left crumbling and that left vote going to the PS, and with the far-right hurting the center-right, PSD and CDS, Costa becomes the only centrism/moderate alternative and the PS becomes the dominant force. Of course, a long PS span isn't going to end well, and like you said just look at the french PS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 05:30:23 PM
Results at the moment: 35 parishes to count, all of them urban

61.3% Marcelo
12.5% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.2% Ferreira
  3.9% Matias
  3.1% Tino de Rans
  3.1% Tiago Mayan

38.6% Turnout


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 05:35:32 PM
Tiago Mayan has surpassed Tino de Rans.

Ana Gomes gap over Ventura continues to grow.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 05:50:23 PM
Pundits are also trashing Rui Rio's speech, saying he's not seeing the writing on the wall regarding what's happening on the right.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:00:40 PM
Marcelo just surpassed his 2016 totals: 2,433,000 vs 2,414,000.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:03:58 PM
Funny thing: President Marcelo is driving his own car to his victory speech location.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:08:55 PM
President Marcelo is arriving at his victory speech venue. Ventura is delaying, delaying and delaying his speech. But it seems that Marcelo will only speak after all the candidates speak. When will Ventura speak?

Ana Gomes is about to speak.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:27:48 PM
Results so far: 5 parishes to count

60.8% Marcelo
12.9% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.3% Ferreira
  3.9% Matias
  3.2% Tiago Mayan
  3.0% Tino de Rans

39.3% Turnout


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:29:18 PM
Ventura is about to speak.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:36:35 PM
Ventura "resigns". Sort of. He will run again for the leadership, of course.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 06:46:19 PM
President Marcelo is speaking.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 24, 2021, 06:50:06 PM
Ventura "resigns". Sort of. He will run again for the leadership, of course.

Lol

A bit like Renzi "resigned" in early 2017 only to run again for the PD leadership a couple months later (winning in a landslide).

Though to be fair I didn't even expect Ventura to go through with an official resignation, so he beat my extremely low expectations.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 07:00:02 PM
Ventura "resigns". Sort of. He will run again for the leadership, of course.

Lol

A bit like Renzi "resigned" in early 2017 only to run again for the PD leadership a couple months later (winning in a landslide).

Though to be fair I didn't even expect Ventura to go through with an official resignation, so he beat my extremely low expectations.
He did it in a way like "yeah, I know what I said, I will do that sure, but look at them (the leftwing), I crushed them". So, not very convincing, but still.

Also, Marcelo is basically saying to the PSD, "Put your act together, and show you are an alternative". He also seemed to suggest, IMO, that he will be much more interventional in government affair which can create problems for Costa, we'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 07:26:30 PM
Final results:

60.7% Marcelo
13.0% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.3% Ferreira
  4.0% Matias
  3.2% Tiago Mayan
  2.9% Tino de Rans

39.5% Turnout
 


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 07:42:23 PM
UCP-CESOP poll for RTP:

Vote share % (compared with the previous poll)

35% PS (-4)
23% PSD (-5)
   9% CHEGA (+1)
   8% BE (+1)
   7% IL (+2)
   6% CDU (nc)
   2% PAN (nc)
   2% CDS (nc)
   1% Livre (+1)
   7% Others/Invalid (+4)

Poll conducted on 24 January 2021 as voters left polling places. Polled 4,627 voters.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2021, 09:31:55 PM
Parish map of the 2021 Presidential elections:

()

Marcelo won all districts, all municipalities, and 3,083 parishes (Madeira and Azores not shown in the map but he also won every single parish in both archipelagos). I didn't find any tie between any of the candidates. Ventura won 4 parishes, João Ferreira 3 and Ana Gomes just 2.

Marcelo is the new Jeb! :D


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2021, 02:23:38 AM
Marcelo won all districts, all municipalities, and 3,083 parishes (Madeira and Azores not shown in the map but he also won every single parish in both archipelagos). I didn't find any tie between any of the candidates. Ventura won 4 parishes, João Ferreira 3 and Ana Gomes just 2.

Marcelo is the new Jeb! :D

All municipalities is brutal. Ventura winning more parishes than Ferreira, considering how historically regionalized the PCP vote is, is also quite brutal.

Also any insight into Ventura doing slightly better in the Lisbon district (which I suppose is cosMopoLitAn?) than in the very right-wing Leiria one?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: It's Perro Sanxe wot won it on January 25, 2021, 04:06:09 AM

All municipalities is brutal. Ventura winning more parishes than Ferreira, considering how historically regionalized the PCP vote is, is also quite brutal.

Also any insight into Ventura doing slightly better in the Lisbon district (which I suppose is cosMopoLitAn?) than in the very right-wing Leiria one?

He probably did better because Lisbon skews younger, and younger right-wing voters tend to pick newer parties while older right-wing voters stick with traditional parties.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 25, 2021, 04:46:28 AM
Marcelo won all districts, all municipalities, and 3,083 parishes (Madeira and Azores not shown in the map but he also won every single parish in both archipelagos). I didn't find any tie between any of the candidates. Ventura won 4 parishes, João Ferreira 3 and Ana Gomes just 2.

Marcelo is the new Jeb! :D

All municipalities is brutal. Ventura winning more parishes than Ferreira, considering how historically regionalized the PCP vote is, is also quite brutal.

Also any insight into Ventura doing slightly better in the Lisbon district (which I suppose is cosMopoLitAn?) than in the very right-wing Leiria one?
Lisbon's "cosmopolitanism" might be the very reason for that (more minorities to hate on). But he did best in very left-wing areas and there are parts of Lisbon district that fit this pattern.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 25, 2021, 05:08:47 AM
Parish map of the 2021 Presidential elections:

()

Marcelo won all districts, all municipalities, and 3,083 parishes (Madeira and Azores not shown in the map but he also won every single parish in both archipelagos). I didn't find any tie between any of the candidates. Ventura won 4 parishes, João Ferreira 3 and Ana Gomes just 2.

Marcelo is the new Jeb! :D

Is it me or are the 4 parishes Ventura won located in the Alentejo? The part of Portugal that is rural and very left wing?

Did Ventura overperform in that area of the country? (#populism <3 ? )


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2021, 05:09:07 AM
He probably did better because Lisbon skews younger, and younger right-wing voters tend to pick newer parties while older right-wing voters stick with traditional parties.

Lisbon's "cosmopolitanism" might be the very reason for that (more minorities to hate on). But he did best in very left-wing areas and there are parts of Lisbon district that fit this pattern.

I guess it makes sense. Thank you to both.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2021, 05:09:53 AM
Is it me or are the 4 parishes Ventura won located in the Alentejo? The part of Portugal that is rural and very left wing?

Did Ventura overperform in that area of the country? (#populism <3 ? )

Spot on.

Someone please make the "Friendship ended with Mudasir" meme with an image of an Alentejo farmer and the following writing:

Friendship ended with PCP

Now
André Ventura
is my
best friend


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 25, 2021, 05:53:56 AM
Is it me or are the 4 parishes Ventura won located in the Alentejo? The part of Portugal that is rural and very left wing?

Did Ventura overperform in that area of the country? (#populism <3 ? )

Spot on.

Someone please make the "Friendship ended with Mudasir" meme with an image of an Alentejo farmer and the following writing:

Friendship ended with PCP

Now
André Ventura
is my
best friend

Here it is!

()


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 06:44:04 AM
Ventura had good results in the suburban ring around Lisbon, where there's a lot of social neighborhood with a lot of minorities. In Lisbon city, he polled a distant 3rd. The worst place for Ventura was my district, Porto, he polled 3rd in every municipality and only in municipalities did he polled above 10%. I have a hunch that football still has an impact in Ventura's prospects in the Porto area and overall, he did poorly in the North. The Alentejo parish wins for Ventura seems to be related with the gypsy community in those areas, according to a pundit I heard on RTP.

Gap between Ventura and Gomes by district:


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 25, 2021, 06:48:52 AM
Final results:

60.7% Marcelo
13.0% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.3% Ferreira
  4.0% Matias
  3.2% Tiago Mayan
  2.9% Tino de Rans

39.5% Turnout
 

So the exit polls actually slightly understated Marcelo, whilst having Ventura almost spot on?

That might upset a few narratives.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 06:54:15 AM
Final results:

60.7% Marcelo
13.0% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.3% Ferreira
  4.0% Matias
  3.2% Tiago Mayan
  2.9% Tino de Rans

39.5% Turnout
 

So the exit polls actually slightly understated Marcelo, whilst having Ventura almost spot on?

That might upset a few narratives.
Yeah, that's true. Plus, the turnout predictions were an utter fiasco also. Marcelo was underestimated, while Gomes overestimated. Ventura numbers were spot on. The exit polls also oversestimated Tiago Mayan as he is very close of Tino de Rans, just a 0.3% gap, and some exit polls putted him in 4th or 5th place.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 25, 2021, 07:02:24 AM
Is there any correlation between areas that heavily supported Salazar and Ventura support?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 07:08:37 AM
The overseas results are also interesting. For some reason, Ventura won in Namibia, and polled almost 32% in South Africa. In Europe, Marcelo performed exactly the same as in 2016 and Ana Gomes got basically the same share of vote Sampaio da Nóvoa had in 2016. Marcelo dominated the Americas, even in Brazil (I was expecting here a strong Ventura vote, maybe a "Bolsonaro effect", or overseas voters in Brazil are just still very loyal to the PSD). In Asia and Australia, the results were basically the same as in 2016, with few flips and the only big one was in Timor where Gomes won handily over Marcelo, she was Portugal's ambassador in Jakarta in the late 90's and had an important role in Timor's independence.

All results here:
https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: crals on January 25, 2021, 07:41:38 AM
White South Africans proving the stereotypes right I guess

Football definitely had an impact imo. Aside from Ventura's poor performance there, Porto is also the district where Ana Gomes (known to be ourspoken about SL Benfica's antics) did best.

Ventura also did poorly (comparatively speaking) on the islands. Of course part of the reason is that his rhetoric doesn't resonate as much over there (not that many gypsies or other minorities) but his stance against regional autonomy may have also played a part.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 07:46:10 AM
Is there any correlation between areas that heavily supported Salazar and Ventura support?
I believe it's difficult to make that correlation because Salazar's regime was a one party state, the National Union (UN) and it got almost always 100% everywhere. The 1958 presidential election and the 1969 general election were the only few expections, with some opposition lists winning some considerable share of the vote but there's few data about those elections. The only data I found, regarding the 1958 election in Porto district (https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/bitstream/10216/14284/2/furacaodelgado000074113.pdf), shows that areas the UN won handily, Baião and Marco de Canaveses, Ventura polled 3rd and 4th respectably, and areas with a strong opposition vote in 1958, Santo Tirso and Matosinhos, Ventura also polled badly in 3rd place and around 8% in both. In Salazar's birth parish and where he's buried, Vimieiro, Santa Comba Dão, Viseu district, Ventura polled 2nd with 12% of the votes but Marcelo crushed him by winning more than 66% of the votes.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 07:52:55 AM
White South Africans proving the stereotypes right I guess

Football definitely had an impact imo. Aside from Ventura's poor performance there, Porto is also the district where Ana Gomes (known to be ourspoken about SL Benfica's antics) did best.

Ventura also did poorly (comparatively speaking) on the islands. Of course part of the reason is that his rhetoric doesn't resonate as much over there (not that many gypsies or other minorities) but his stance against regional autonomy may have also played a part.

I assume the islands are still very supportive of the two main parties and less for smaller parties, like CHEGA also. Of course, Ventura position of banning regional governments doesn't help but there's still a lot of party loyalty in the islands, particularly in Madeira with the PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 08:07:28 AM
Nice maps with 2nd most voted candidates by municipality and other maps:

*Click on the image/tweet to see all of the maps.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 09:08:46 AM
At the same time the Presidential election was happening, another event happened, but it was a bit expected:

Santana Lopes leaves the party he founded, Alliance, and a return to the PSD is possible.

Quote
Political parties: Santana Lopes leaves the Alliance, party he founded in 2018

Pedro Santana Lopes has left the party he founded, the Alliance party. This move was expected for a while since he left the party's leadership and became more distante from the party. A dinner he had with Rui Rio, a few months ago, also pointed that he was becoming closer, again, with the PSD. Santana Lopes confirmed he left the party he created in 2018, because the party can only have a future if he isn't in the party as he is still very much linked to the PSD. The party says that Santana gave everything he could for the party and that he's sorry for the awful results the party has. A return to the PSD could occur.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: VPH on January 25, 2021, 09:49:10 AM
It's interesting how Ventura did pretty well in historically left-leaning areas. If you closely scrutinized his strength in the legislative and EU elections, it also tracked with these areas.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 09:50:54 AM
The results aren't final yet. There are still 3 consulates overseas that didn't report their results. The results from Macao and Beijing, in China, are still out and so is the results from Beira, Mozambique. In Beira, the passing of Eloise cyclone, which has provoked some deaths and a lot of destruction could delay the counting of the ballots.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 10:11:24 AM
It's interesting how Ventura did pretty well in historically left-leaning areas. If you closely scrutinized his strength in the legislative and EU elections, it also tracked with these areas.
It's a possibility that Ventura may be stealing some votes from the left in some Alentejo areas and even some in the Lisbon suburbs, a lot of minorities and so. However, it's also a bit clear that Ventura is stealing votes from PSD/CDS in the South, particularly in Alentejo. Of course you cannot relate the almost 12% Ventura had with a possible general election result, because many voters on the right voted Ventura more because of their dislike of Marcelo than other thing. The PCP strength is disappearing and BE fell into an abyss after their 2021 budget vote.

Also, let's pay attention of what could happen in the PSD in the coming months. I wouldn't be surprised if Rio is booted out before the fall local elections. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 10:41:53 AM
Some data on where Ana Gomes and Ventura polled better:

The analysis of the results from Lusa news agency EyeData (https://analytics.socialdatalab.pt/EyeData/Lusa-Presidenciais2021.html), gives some inside on where did Ana Gomes and Ventura polled better. First, Ana Gomes:  (https://www.dn.pt/politica/ana-gomes-com-mais-votos-em-concelhos-com-habilitacoes-mais-fortes-13273243.html)

- She did better in municipalities where the level of recycling is higher than the national average, 56% vs 50%;
- Gomes also did better in places where the % of foreign population is higher than the national average;
- Gomes did better in municipalities where purchasing power is higher and where voters have higher qualifications;
- She performed better in places where a lot of people gain state support subsidies (RSI) compared with the national average;

And secondly, André Ventura:  (https://rr.sapo.pt/2021/01/25/politica/presidenciais-ventura-com-melhor-prestacao-onde-ha-menos-camas-e-pessoal-nos-hospitais/noticia/223945/)

- Ventura did better in municipalities that have fewer hospital beds than the national average;
- He also performed better in places where the purchasing power is bellow the national average;
- Ventura polled better in places where criminality reported by the police is higher also than the national average;
- He performed better in municipalities that have a higher rate of school dropouts than the national average;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 10:59:23 AM
The overseas results are also interesting. For some reason, Ventura won in Namibia, and polled almost 32% in South Africa. In Europe, Marcelo performed exactly the same as in 2016 and Ana Gomes got basically the same share of vote Sampaio da Nóvoa had in 2016. Marcelo dominated the Americas, even in Brazil (I was expecting here a strong Ventura vote, maybe a "Bolsonaro effect", or overseas voters in Brazil are just still very loyal to the PSD). In Asia and Australia, the results were basically the same as in 2016, with few flips and the only big one was in Timor where Gomes won handily over Marcelo, she was Portugal's ambassador in Jakarta in the late 90's and had an important role in Timor's independence.

All results here:
https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro

Map of the world with the most voted candidate by country:


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 25, 2021, 11:13:03 AM
I noticed in the Ana Gomes map an unmistakably clear overperformance in the big cities of Lisbon, Coimbra, and Porto (although less so in Braga).

Re: Ventura.
He did indeed overperform in #populist left-wing areas, but I noticed that at least one of his best districts is actually a traditionally right-wing one: Bragança. Anything that makes it especially different from e.g. nearby Vila Real?
Also he didn't actually do well in Setúbal, although that I assume must be because it's much more (sub)urbanized than the rest of Alentejo.

Whenever I find the right wording I put up some display name about Ventura's performance or something.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Astatine on January 25, 2021, 11:25:21 AM
()

sry I couldn't resist


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 11:30:04 AM
I noticed in the Ana Gomes map an unmistakably clear overperformance in the big cities of Lisbon, Coimbra, and Porto (although less so in Braga).

Re: Ventura.
He did indeed overperform in #populist left-wing areas, but I noticed that at least one of his best districts is actually a traditionally right-wing one: Bragança. Anything that makes it especially different from e.g. nearby Vila Real?
Also he didn't actually do well in Setúbal, although that I assume must be because it's much more (sub)urbanized than the rest of Alentejo.

Whenever I find the right wording I put up some display name about Ventura's performance or something.
Bragança is a very conservative area so many voters may have voted for Ventura for that reason. But also, and perhaps this is the most important reason, the desertification and lack of opportunities in that region may have drawn more voters, that normally vote PSD in general elections, to vote for an anti-system candidate like Ventura as they don't feel represented or feel that their needs aren't heard by the Government nor by the President.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 11:41:11 AM
Hahahaha!! Yep, it's just like that! ;D ;D 8) 8)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2021, 03:45:18 PM
2021 Presidential election fallout: Is PSD starting to distance themselves from CHEGA?


Quote
Political parties: PSD responds to Ventura's provocation: “With this Chega it is impossible to talk”

During his election night speech, yesterday, Ventura threw a big warning to the PSD: "PSD, hear me well. There will be no government in Portugal without CHEGA!". This warning or provocation was seen by pundits on election night as a way to put the PSD in a trap and making it "hostage" of CHEGA. During his remarks on election night, PSD leader Rui Rio didn't talked about possible alliances with CHEGA but highlighted the fact that Ventura polled 2nd in the Alentejo region. But, on a morning radio program, Rio's deputy, David Justino, trashed Ventura saying he represents the worst in politics and the PSD cannot ever talk with "this CHEGA". He added that he doesn't feel "hostage" nor does the party adding that the parties need to find solutions to people's problems rather than talking over and over again about Ventura.

Nonetheless, some voices in the PSD are saying that Rio's leadership is "bankrupt" (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/rio-destacou-vitoria-de-ventura-mas-no-psd-ha-quem-veja-ai-a-fraqueza-do-lider) and that the party is failling to present an alternative which is draining votes to CHEGA and IL.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Red Velvet on January 26, 2021, 12:40:50 AM
The overseas results are also interesting. For some reason, Ventura won in Namibia, and polled almost 32% in South Africa. In Europe, Marcelo performed exactly the same as in 2016 and Ana Gomes got basically the same share of vote Sampaio da Nóvoa had in 2016. Marcelo dominated the Americas, even in Brazil (I was expecting here a strong Ventura vote, maybe a "Bolsonaro effect", or overseas voters in Brazil are just still very loyal to the PSD). In Asia and Australia, the results were basically the same as in 2016, with few flips and the only big one was in Timor where Gomes won handily over Marcelo, she was Portugal's ambassador in Jakarta in the late 90's and had an important role in Timor's independence.

All results here:
https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro

Nah, the “right-wing populism” wave thing expresses itself on a very particular way in Latin America compared to Europe or the US. I didn’t expect Ventura to do a lot better in Brazil, opposed to how well Bolsonaro overperformed in Portugal.

In Europe, its main particularity is that people who always liked leftists and communist parties are being swayed by these people, who gives them increased populist rhetoric to be excited about.

In US there is not a “left” to say the exact same thing but if you look at the demographics it’s somewhat of a similar logic, with rural areas and working class people shifting more to those kinds of politics. Like it happens in Europe.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is more like a more weakass wannabe version of Pinochet. He’s not associated to a moderated “economic populism” like these other right-wing populists in the world somewhat adopt in order to not repel populist voters who happen to like social populism as well but aren’t necessarily friendly to economic austerity. He may even pursue that strategy from now on considering his poll numbers right now, but the people who voted him in were the opposite of rural small town people who happen to like big spending but are socially conservative.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2021, 06:09:05 AM
The overseas results are also interesting. For some reason, Ventura won in Namibia, and polled almost 32% in South Africa. In Europe, Marcelo performed exactly the same as in 2016 and Ana Gomes got basically the same share of vote Sampaio da Nóvoa had in 2016. Marcelo dominated the Americas, even in Brazil (I was expecting here a strong Ventura vote, maybe a "Bolsonaro effect", or overseas voters in Brazil are just still very loyal to the PSD). In Asia and Australia, the results were basically the same as in 2016, with few flips and the only big one was in Timor where Gomes won handily over Marcelo, she was Portugal's ambassador in Jakarta in the late 90's and had an important role in Timor's independence.

All results here:
https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro

Nah, the “right-wing populism” wave thing expresses itself on a very particular way in Latin America compared to Europe or the US. I didn’t expect Ventura to do a lot better in Brazil, opposed to how well Bolsonaro overperformed in Portugal.

In Europe, its main particularity is that people who always liked leftists and communist parties are being swayed by these people, who gives them increased populist rhetoric to be excited about.

In US there is not a “left” to say the exact same thing but if you look at the demographics it’s somewhat of a similar logic, with rural areas and working class people shifting more to those kinds of politics. Like it happens in Europe.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is more like a more weakass wannabe version of Pinochet. He’s not associated to a moderated “economic populism” like these other right-wing populists in the world somewhat adopt in order to not repel populist voters who happen to like social populism as well but aren’t necessarily friendly to economic austerity. He may even pursue that strategy from now on considering his poll numbers right now, but the people who voted him in were the opposite of rural small town people who happen to like big spending but are socially conservative.
Right. That makes sense, but I was still surprised. Because the Brazil overseas vote is very rightwing normaly, I would fear a Ventura strong vote, but like I said in my post above, it seems that vote is still very loyal to the PSD and also expresses its way differently like you said. Also, interestingly, a poll was released today, conducted before the elections, that shows that more than a third of Ventura's voters in the Presidential election would vote PSD in the general election:

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/ps-perto-dos-40-bloco-cai-e-deixa-chega-em-terceiro-13275731.html)

Vote share %:

39.9% PS (+1.4)
26.6% PSD (+1.2)
  7.5% CHEGA (-0.2)
  7.2% BE (-1.3)
  5.0% CDU (-0.7)
  3.5% PAN (-1.2)
  3.5% IL (nc)
  0.8% CDS (+0.5)
  0.6% Livre (+0.1)
  5.5% Others/Invalid (+0.3)

Vote in presidential election vs Vote in general election:

Marcelo: 45.3% PS; 38.2% PSD; 5.0% PAN; 3.2% BE; 0.4% CHEGA; 0.4% IL; 7.5% Others
Gomes: 69.5% PS; 9.8% CDU; 8.1% BE; 7.8% PSD; 1.4% PAN; 1.3% IL; 2.0% Others
Ventura: 59.1% CHEGA; 33.9% PSD; 3.0% PAN; 2.6% PS; 1.4% Others
Ferreira: 70.6% CDU; 17.3% PS; 4.7% BE; 7.4% Others
Matias: 80.1% BE; 5.8% CDU; 4.8% PS; 3.6% PAN; 3.0% PSD; 2.7% Others
Tiago Mayan: 52.0% PSD; 39.7% IL; 5.2% PS; 3.1% PAN
Tino de Rans: 25.5% IL; 13.2% PS; 9.9% CDU; 9.2% PSD; 42.1% Others

Poll conducted between 9-15 January 2021. Polled 1,183 voters. MoE of 2.80%.

We'll see if these trends continue in the polling done after last Sunday's election, although these numbers contradict a bit the RTP poll.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2021, 07:48:34 AM
It seems that the 4 parishes Ventura won in the Alentejo region, all have a high proportion of gypsy communities:


Quote
"We know that they are fascists, now that they voted for Ventura".

The media is reporting that the 4 parishes Ventura won and others where he had strong a share of the vote, are areas with a high rate of gypsy communities. The best result for Ventura was in Póvoa de São Miguel, Moura, Beja district, where 20% of the parish population is gypsy. Ventura won 41% of the votes against Marcelo's 30% and Gomes's 20%. In 2019, the parish already gave 15% to CHEGA. According to this report by Diário de Notícias, there isn't a lot of tension between the community and the rest of the population, but there seems to be a lot of "silent" resentment towards the gypsy community that explains the vote in the election. Inhabitants seem to fear the rising gypsy community in the parish and many, of the record, say they don't like the way the gypsies live at the expense of the taxpayer. The inhabitants from the gypsy community in the parish are saddened by the results and say that they now know that a lot of people in their parish are fascists.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: VPH on January 26, 2021, 08:44:37 AM
That tracks well with Ventura's campaign in Loures a few years back which tried to capitalize on anti-Roma sentiment.

Also, I know it's probably an artifact of a small n, but I would love to meet the PAN-Ventura voters and just ask them what's up


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 26, 2021, 09:02:05 AM
That tracks well with Ventura's campaign in Loures a few years back which tried to capitalize on anti-Roma sentiment.

Also, I know it's probably an artifact of a small n, but I would love to meet the PAN-Ventura voters and just ask them what's up

I would like to know how the eff the poll managed to have more PAN-Ventura voters than PCP-Ventura voters, lol.

Also, here be my new display name.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: kaoras on January 26, 2021, 09:15:12 AM
But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2021, 09:54:22 AM
That tracks well with Ventura's campaign in Loures a few years back which tried to capitalize on anti-Roma sentiment.

Also, I know it's probably an artifact of a small n, but I would love to meet the PAN-Ventura voters and just ask them what's up

I would like to know how the eff the poll managed to have more PAN-Ventura voters than PCP-Ventura voters, lol.

Also, here be my new display name.
To be fair the gypsyfobia, in local government at least, is widespread across all parties left to right. In Loures, the predecessor of the incumbent PCP mayor, former PS mayor Carlos Teixeira also made controversial statements, in 2008, about gypsies saying he was thankfull for a gypsy community protest because he could force them to pay all the debts they owe to city hall and make them look for jobs. And there are other examples across the country. About the Aximage poll, well, crosstabs are always weird and contradictory. We'll see when ERC publishes the full data of exit polls if RTP has some info as they also did a general election poll on election day.

But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?
I think it's a little bit of both. Ventura and CHEGA seem to be capturing a lot of protest vote in the Alentejo that normally comes from PCP and PSD. No doubt he had the support of many PSD voters in the region, not sure if that will play out on general elections, but he's also benefiting from the massive decline of the PCP across the region.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 26, 2021, 09:57:27 AM
But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2021, 10:08:53 AM
But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.
Yes, the 2016 Edgar Silva result in Madeira was because he was a native Madeiran. The same happened in 2011 with José Manuel Coelho, also a Madeira native, where he got 39% against Cavaco's 44%.

The fall local elections will be crucial to see how the PCP is really doing in the Alentejo region. In 2017, they lost several town halls and ended up with 16 mayors, out of 58, in the region. The results of the past elections, general especially, seem to suggest that "the red wall" of the Alentejo could crumble.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2021, 01:05:46 PM
Update on the remaining 3 consulates overseas yet to report their results:

In Beira, Mozambique, the casting of ballots was postponed for next Saturday and Sunday (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1674701/presidenciais-ciclone-adia-eleicoes-no-consulado-na-beira) due to the damages cyclone Eloise provoked in the city and in the surrounding areas. And in China, it's expected that the Macao and Beijing results will be announced tomorrow, after the ballots from South Korea are counted. (https://pontofinalmacau.wordpress.com/2021/01/26/presidenciais-jornal-portugues-poe-em-xeque-consulado-de-portugall/)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: VPH on January 26, 2021, 03:18:14 PM
But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.
The same happened in 2011 with José Manuel Coelho, also a Madeira native, where he got 39% against Cavaco's 44%.

José Manuel Coelho was one of the strangest politicians in Europe


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2021, 05:54:11 PM
But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.
The same happened in 2011 with José Manuel Coelho, also a Madeira native, where he got 39% against Cavaco's 44%.

José Manuel Coelho was one of the strangest politicians in Europe
Yeah, he's weird. But hilarious:


When he stripped naked in the Madeira parliament against his wage garnishment. There were other funny moments, like when he showed the Nazi flag while protesting against the PSD regional government and other moments. I think he's now retired from politics and it's his daughter that has become more present.

But in my opinion one of most hilarious/WTF candidacies ever for the Presidency were from Manuel João Vieira. He never reached the ballot for lack of signatures, but he tried in 2001 and 2016:


His main proposals were that every Portuguese should have a Ferrari, that taxes should be banned, that every single Portuguese should be arrested at least once in their lives, create Ministries like the Ministry for Women and Fishing or the Ministry of Brandy and Coffee and bombard Spanish dams and sell Olivença. Priceless. :D :D


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2021, 07:43:53 AM
Crisis in CDS: Adolfo Mesquita Nunes demands a snap party congress to elect a new leader. Current CDS leader refuses.


Quote
Mesquita Nunes calls for snap elections in CDS.

The CDS colapse in polling, with polls showing the party between 0-2%, is creating a lot of internal infighting and anger towards the current leadership of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. One of his most outspoken critics, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, is demanding a snap party congress to elect a new leadership saying the current one has "no project or strategy". He warns that waiting until next year, when the term of the current leadership ends, it could be too late to save the party from the surge of new parties on the right, IL and CHEGA. Other media outlets also say that Mesquita Nunes is ready to face Rodrigues dos Santos for the party's leadership. However, Mr Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, has rejected the idea of calling a snap party congress.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 27, 2021, 08:44:43 AM
But the Ventura strength in Alentejo Is real or just a mirage caused by the left wing split? Also, is really at the expense of the left or PSD?

Now, of course if you sum up Gomes/Matias/Ferreira you easily overtake Ventura, but his overperformance in Alentejo is as clear as the sun.

Also, it can't be a coincidence that aside from the massive discrepancy in Madeira (a product of Silva's 'home state' effect), the only three districts where Ferreira did worse for the PCP in 2021 than Silva had done in 2016 are... Beja, Évora, and Setúbal.
The same happened in 2011 with José Manuel Coelho, also a Madeira native, where he got 39% against Cavaco's 44%.

José Manuel Coelho was one of the strangest politicians in Europe

I mean, I opened his Portuguese Wikipedia page and his life starts with "He is the son of an ex-nun from a Franciscan congregation and of a folk poet who recited and sold his works written on pamphlets. He was baptized in the Catholic Church but converted to Adventism thanks to his father, who was an active member of the Adventist Church of the Seventh Day".
I wouldn't expect someone with such a background to become a normal politician lmao.
And indeed the anecdotes Mike88 mentioned are hilariously weird.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2021, 10:31:59 AM
Covid-19 vaccines: Plan to vaccinate all sovereign body holders has become very controversial.


Quote
Right, PAN and PCP against giving priority to Covid's vaccine to “all” politicians. Some deputies abdicate.

The current Covid-19 vaccine plan was never unanimous, and after President Marcelo's Covid scare, many said it would be wise to vaccine the top branch of government holders. But, the new plan the government proposes is creating controversy. In the new plan, President, PM, Cabinet, MPs, Parliament employees, Regional government holders and Mayors would start being vaccinated next week. The plan is being trashed by all parties and other health organizations, except the PS, accusing the government of a ludicrous plan when several nurses/NHS staff and elder people are yet to be vaccinated. Several MPs and party leaders have already said they don't want the vaccine now. The PS accuses those who criticize the plan of being demagogues. During the afternoon, the government announced that the PM and 6 other cabinet ministers would be the firsts to get the vaccine due to their work in the frontline against the virus and because of the EU Portuguese Presidency.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2021, 01:16:39 PM
2021 Presidential elections: Around 5,000 voters may have voted for the "ghost candidate" Eduardo Baptista on election day.


Quote
5,000 may have voted for "ghost candidate" in presidential elections

It's impossible to know for certain as ballots for Eduardo Baptista were counted as invalid, however, Correio da Manhã did a calculation based on their exit poll on election night. Intercampus polling company received 21 votes for Eduardo Baptista in a total of 23,581 voters that took part in the exit poll. This means that around 5,000 voters cast a ballot for Eduardo Baptista, who was on the ballot, due to timetable issues, but failed to deliver the necessary signatures to be a valid candidate. There were almost 40,000 invalid ballots in the elections. Contacted by the newspaper, Eduardo Baptista couldn't believe he may got those votes: "Almost 5,000 people voted for me? Is this serious? That is very good, it's a lot of people."


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2021, 05:47:20 PM
2021 local elections: PSD and CDS will sign a broad coalition deal for the fall local elections.


Quote
Local elections. PSD prepares elections with CDS and removes any connection to Chega.

The leaders of the PSD and CDS met today, in the PSD national headquarters, to announce they will sign a broad deal to contest the 2021 September/October local elections in coalitions across the country. A similar deal was done in 2013 and 2017. Both parties have, however, rejected any type of coalition or alliances with CHEGA but are open with alliances with other parties on the right like PPM, MPT, Alliance and, who knows, IL. The deal will be sign during mid-February. Possible coalitions will almost certainly include Lisbon city and other major cities. Porto, however, is a main doubt.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2021, 06:26:04 AM
Crisis deepens in CDS: One of Rodrigues dos Santos deputies resigns and 2 other leadership members also resign.


Quote
Filipe Lobo D’Ávilla resigns and leaves Rodrigues dos Santos more isolated

CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, has lost his majority in the party leadership. One of his deputies, Filipe Lobo D’Ávilla, resigned last night and with him, another two members in the party's national council also resigned. The 3 resigned because they are against Rodrigues dos Santos leadership strategy that is hurting and making CDS irrelevant. This come one day after one of Rodrigues dos Santos harshest critics, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, demanded a snap party congress in order to elect a new leader to save the party.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2021, 07:11:59 AM
2021 Presidential elections: Results from Macao are announced.  (https://plataformamedia.com/2021/01/28/presidenciais-marcelo-rebelo-de-sousa-teve-quase-mil-votos-em-macau/)

Vote share % (1,474 ballots cast)

64.6% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
14.5% Ana Gomes
  8.0% André Ventura
  4.6% Tiago Mayan
  3.5% Marisa Matias
  2.9% João Ferreira
  1.9% Tino de Rans

Still to be announced are the results from Beijing. Voters in Beira, Mozambique, will cast ballot this weekend.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2021, 10:20:45 AM
Still to be announced are the results from Beijing. Voters in Beira, Mozambique, will cast ballot this weekend.

Beijing is also in. Just 19 ballots out of 235 registered. Ana Gomes won 10 votes, Marcelo 5, Tiago Mayan 3 and Tino de Rans one vote. Ventura, Matias and Ferreira all got zero votes in Beijing.



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2021, 02:01:34 PM
And the Gaffe of the day goes to Internal Affairs minister Eduardo Cabrita:


In the debate to approve the 10th extension of the State of Emergency, the opposition made several criticisms towards the government for their lack of planning in the 3rd wave of the pandemic. Internal affairs minister, Eduardo Cabrita, spoke to MPs announcing several measures like closing the Spain-Portugal border, but he committed a gaffe that is becoming viral on social media:
Quote
Tell the right that came here to criticize the vaccination plan, who would be left behind? Were the people in nursing homes? Were they health professionals? this is the clear answer that they have to say about the vaccination plan that will now advance, already for firefighters, yes already for people with mobility problems, yes already for people over 80 thousand years old. In a time of national cohesion, of fighting the pandemic, it is not a time for demagogy.

Priceless. xD Anyway, the new State of Emergency was easily passed:

In favour: PS, PSD, CDS, PAN, MP Cristina Rodrigues (196 votes)
Against: PCP, PEV, CHEGA, IL, MP Joacine Katar Moreira (15 votes)
Abstention: BE (19 votes)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2021, 06:03:27 AM
Crisis deepens in CDS: One of Rodrigues dos Santos deputies resigns and 2 other leadership members also resign.
CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos retracts his refusal to discuss a possible snap congress. Calls a national party council and is considering a snap congress.


Quote
CDS leader to convene the party's National Council - RTP Notícias

Several CDS members and MPs are starting to distance themselves from Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. Although the current CDS leader refused, just a day ago, any talk about a snap leadership congress, he is now calling for a national party council to discuss the matter and is, according to the media, willing to accept a snap congress. There isn't a date yet for the meeting, but Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos will not resign and if a snap congress occurs, he is planning to face Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, who started all of this discussion.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2021, 10:38:25 AM
Final Euthanasia vote: Parliament approves the final draft of the bill by a 136-82 margin:


Quote
BREAKING NEWS | Euthanasia. Parliament approves decriminalization of medically assisted death - RTP Notícias

Parliament approved, this afternoon, the final draft of the Euthanasia bill that was passed last February. Before the vote, the PSD proposed postponing the vote because of the high number of deaths due to Covid and that the vote could be badly seen. This proposal was rejected. The tally is the following:

In favour: 136 - PS (95), BE (19), PSD (14), PAN (3), PEV (2), IL (1), Ind (2)
Against: 82 - PSD (56), PS (10), PCP (10), CDS (5), CHEGA (1)
Abstention: 4 - PS (2), PSD (2)

PSD leader, Rui Rio, voted in favour, and the deputy secretary general of the PS, Costa's deputy in the PS, voted against. The bill will now be sent to President Marcelo which can sign it, veto it or sent it to the Constitutional Court for review.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2021, 02:19:52 PM
Crisis deepens in CDS: One of Rodrigues dos Santos deputies resigns and 2 other leadership members also resign.
CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos retracts his refusal to discuss a possible snap congress. Calls a national party council and is considering a snap congress.

More resignations in CDS: Two board members of the policy committee resigned (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/mais-quatro-demissoes-no-cds-13294146.html) and other two members of the policy studies cabinets of the party also resigned.

The media is also reporting the content of last night tense meeting in the CDS headquarters. Rodrigues dos Santos refused to resign but said that if he leaves it's because he has had enough of the party, adding that a person has to have "self love".  (https://observador.pt/2021/01/29/francisco-rodrigues-dos-santos-desabafa-se-sair-e-porque-nao-estou-para-isto-tem-de-haver-amor-proprio/)

It seems more and more likely that there will be a leadership contest in CDS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2021, 03:01:53 PM
Covid vaccines: Director of Setúbal's Social Security Center, Natividade Coelho, resigns after being discovered she took the vaccine ahead of time.


Quote
Coronavirus: Director of the Setúbal District Social Security Center resigns after controversy with vaccination

In the last few days, a lot of reports have come public of several public employees and directors, plus also some Catholic Church members like priests, who had taken the Covid-19 vaccine ahead of time and that none were from risk groups. Yesterday, SIC TV reported that the director of Setúbal's Social Security, Natividade Coelho, also took the vaccine ahead of time. Ms Coelho and other 125 staff members of Setúbal's Social Security are suspected of having already taken the vaccine. Ms Coelho, a PS member and candidate for mayor in Palmela in 2013, resigned during this afternoon and her resignation was accepted by the Social Security board. But this is not the only case, INEM administrative staff, the emergency medical service, received more than 1,170 doses of vaccines and staff, directors and advisors were all vaccinated ahead of time.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2021, 07:52:25 AM
Covid-19 vaccine plan controversy: Many PSD MPs refuse to be vaccinated including their leader.


Quote
Among the 12 PSD MPs who will not be vaccinated as a priority on Parliament's list is party leader Rui Rio

The Covid-19 vaccine plan to vaccinate several public and political figures continues to create big controversy. Yesterday, the Speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues, released the list of 50 priority MPs that would receive the vaccine. Ferro Rodrigues and Rui Rio would be at the top of the list with the rest being MPs from all parties, except BE, PAN, IL and CHEGA. The PS initially wanted to vaccinate all their 108 MPs but accepted the new plan. However, in a press release this morning, the PSD announced that 12 of their priority MPs, including Rui Rio, don't want to take the vaccine or be classified as a priority. Only 7 PSD MPs accepted taking the vaccine in a total of now 38 MPs that will take the vaccine: 26 from the PS, 7 PSD, 2 PCP, 1 CDS, 1 PEV and Joacine Katar Moreira.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2021, 12:11:48 PM
CHEGA will hold leadership elections in the 3rd week of February after Ventura's "resignation":


Quote
Ventura submits to a new vote by CHEGA members in the third week of February

After Ventura's "resignation" on election night, he today met with his party's leadership team and confirmed his resignation and that he will put his name forward for reelection. The leadership elections are expected to be on the 3rd week of February with a date yet to be confirmed, and a national congress will only be held when the State of Emergency is lifted. It's not expected for Ventura to face a rival in this leadership election.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2021, 07:14:19 AM
Tensions in the PS also? Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos blames PM António Costa for the rise of André Ventura:


Quote
"PS contributed involuntarily to Ventura's affirmation", says Pedro Nuno Santos

In an op-ed in Público newspaper (https://www.publico.pt/2021/01/31/politica/opiniao/presidenciais-ontem-licoes-futuro-1948651), this Sunday, Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos says the PS and António Costa have also blame in the rise and affirmation of André Ventura and CHEGA. In the op-ed, Mr Nuno Santos says that the PS when trying to escape a confrontation with President Marcelo, lost in the battle of ideas and values. He adds that the because the PS decided to "support" Marcelo, it hurt the "healthy dialectical antagonism between left and right" and created an informal Central Bloc between the President and the Government. He concludes by saying that a healthy democracy lives of ideological polarization, but that the PS is feeding another kind of polarization very dangerous for the stability of the regime. Minister Pedro Nuno Santos supported Ana Gomes and had a public feud with the PM, in December, regarding the TAP airlines bailout. He's considered on of the possible successors of Costa in the PS leadership.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2021, 11:35:49 AM
Head of the Covid vaccination plan, Francisco Ramos, makes controversial statement by saying that people who cheat in order to get the 1st vaccine shot will get a second one, and only those who voted for Ventura think that's immoral:


Quote
Are “cheats” in vaccination immoral? Only for those who voted for André Ventura, says Francisco Ramos

Francisco Ramos, the head of Portugal's Covid vaccination plan, made a controversial statement, yesterday, in a TV interview on SIC Notícias. Pressed by the reporter about the constant stories, lately, of irresponsible uses of the Covid-19 vaccine and what kind of punishment should exist, Mr Ramos said that these kind of acts are regrettable but that the system was built up to vaccinate people and not to find those who cheat. He added by saying that it would be wrong not to vaccinate with a 2nd dose those who cheat in order to get the first dose, concluding that only "the 11 or 12% who voted for André Ventura" have a "vengeful spirit " and find it immoral. Just today, the Health minister has created a  "Bank of alternatives" in order to prevent "infiltrated" (https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2021-01-31-Governo-cria-banco-de-suplentes-para-prevenir-infiltrados-no-plano-de-vacinacao.-Toma-indevida-pode-levar-a-tribunal), like the INEM/Pastry situation, in the vaccination plans. Those who cheat could face the Courts.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2021, 03:59:50 PM
The results of the 2021 Presidential elections are now final. Overseas voters in Beira, Mozambique, cast ballots today and the results were announced a short while ago. Only 18 voters, out of 1,087, cast a ballot giving 14 votes for Marcelo, 2 for Ventura and 1 for Ana Gomes. One ballot was invalid.

So, the final tally of the results is the following:  (https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/globais)

60.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (2,534,734 votes)
13.0% Ana Gomes (541,555)
11.9% André Ventura (496,770)
   4.3% João Ferreira (180,516)
   4.0% Marisa Matias (164,739)
   3.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (134,484)
   2.9% Tino de Rans (122,774)

  2.0% Blank/Invalid (87,079)

39.2% Turnout* (4,262,651)

*In Portugal alone, turnout stood at 45.5%. Overseas, only 1.9% of voters cast a ballot.

Results will now published by the Electoral Commission, some minor reviews are possible, and then they will become official when published in the Diário da República.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 31, 2021, 05:03:43 PM
Is it normal that Portuguese abroad have such an abysmal turnout rate? Even considering that overseas citizens of any country tend to vote rarely, that's incredibly low.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2021, 05:31:41 PM
Is it normal that Portuguese abroad have such an abysmal turnout rate? Even considering that overseas citizens of any country tend to vote rarely, that's incredibly low.
It became more abysmal after the 2018 change in which all voters overseas would be registered automatically, rather than personally registered in embassies/consulates. Now you have 1,5 million voters overseas, which pushes way down the turnout rates even though more ballots are being cast in the elections. For example, in the 2019 elections, more than 158,000 ballots arrived from overseas, a record high, but turnout rates fell to record low levels of around 10%. But, even before the 2018 change, turnout overseas was going down and down in every election. (before 2018 there were around 300,000 registered voters overseas)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on February 01, 2021, 12:57:44 PM
CDS crisis: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos will present a motion of confidence in order to stop Adolfo Mesquita Nunes.


Quote
CDS leader to move forward with confidence motion

CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos spent the last few days reflection on how to respond to Adolfo Mesquita Nunes's challenge of calling a snap leadership election because the current leadership is failing. But, Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, will not give up and he will announce he will convene the party's national council and propose a motion of confidence. This is the same strategy used by PSD leader Rui Rio, in January 2019, when he faced a leadership challenge from Luís Montenegro. The result was a victory for Rui Rio. We'll see how this plays out in CDS.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 01, 2021, 01:58:43 PM
With the 2021 Presidential elections over, let's take it off from the title.

The next elections, the local elections, are due for September/October. There will be 308 mayors, 2,000 or so councillors, more than 6,400 municipal assembly members, more than 3,080 parish Presidents and more than 25,000 parish assembly members to be elected.

Also, the future of Costa's 2nd term, Rui Rio's leadership in the PSD and also the future of the PCP will be at stake.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 01, 2021, 05:27:28 PM
With the 2021 Presidential elections over, let's take it off from the title.

The next elections, the local elections, are due for September/October. There will be 308 mayors, 2,000 or so councillors, more than 6,400 municipal assembly members, more than 3,080 parish Presidents and more than 25,000 parish assembly members to be elected.

Also, the future of Costa's 2nd term, Rui Rio's leadership in the PSD and also the future of the PCP will be at stake.
any new general elections polls out?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 01, 2021, 05:36:35 PM
With the 2021 Presidential elections over, let's take it off from the title.

The next elections, the local elections, are due for September/October. There will be 308 mayors, 2,000 or so councillors, more than 6,400 municipal assembly members, more than 3,080 parish Presidents and more than 25,000 parish assembly members to be elected.

Also, the future of Costa's 2nd term, Rui Rio's leadership in the PSD and also the future of the PCP will be at stake.
any new general elections polls out?
The last one was conducted with voters as they left polling stations for the Presidential election a week ago:

UCP-CESOP poll for RTP:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/sondagem-ps-mantem-cenario-de-vitoria-em-legislativas_n1292200)

Vote share % (compared with the previous poll)

35% PS (-4)
23% PSD (-5)
  9% CHEGA (+1)
  8% BE (+1)
  7% IL (+2)
  6% CDU (nc)
  2% PAN (nc)
  2% CDS (nc)
  1% Livre (+1)
  7% Others/Invalid (+4)

Poll conducted on 24 January 2021 as voters left polling places. Polled 4,627 voters.

There will be more polls published in the next few days, also.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 01, 2021, 08:02:25 PM
MPs Covid vaccination controversy: The trainwreck 72 hours of the list of MPs that will take the Covid vaccine.


Quote
The 72 hours in which the list shrunk. There are 35 MPs left wanting the vaccine (and may not stop there)

In a week where the media is full of stories of illegal uses of the vaccine, the MPs vaccine plan has been controversial since the beginning, a week and a half ago, and the controversy continues. It all started last week when the Speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues, decided to create a plan and set a timetable for parties to say which MPs want the vaccine. PM António Costa asked the Speaker for a list of MPs that would want to take the vaccine, and sent the letter to all caucuses in Parliament to decide. A deadline was set up for Friday, 29 January, for parties to reveal their lists of MPs for vaccinations. Some parties protested against this vaccination plan saying it was an affront to millions of people, from NHS workers to elderly people, who haven't received the vaccine yet. BE, PAN, CHEGA and IL refused to have any of their MPs vaccinated ahead of time. CDS just said one MP was available, and PCP 2 MPs. But PSD and PS didn't send any names. The PSD held a caucus meeting in which they asked MPs to sent an email about their decision, but at the time of the deadline, the PSD didn't have any names, nor did the PS. Speaker Ferro Rodrigues sent to the PM, the list of names his office drew.

But, on Saturday, fury erupted in the PSD as many MPs, including Rui Rio, refused to be vaccinated ahead of time and demanded their names to be scraped from the list. The Speaker's office refused to change the list and blamed the PSD. But, in the PS there was also a lot of fury because of the names sent to take the vaccine. On Sunday, the PS caucus leader, Ana Catarina Mendes, sent a letter to the Speaker which messed up even more the situation. She defended that only the Speaker and two PS deputies should be vaccinated. This Monday, the PSD demanded that the list should be thrown to the garbage and create a new "minimalist one". The Speaker refuses once again but in the PS, MPs start to also refuse to take the vaccine, so far 3 including the most controversial one - MP Maria Begonha accused of forging her CV. Of the initial 50 MPs that would take the vaccine, the number has drooped to 35 but the real number could be 28, as the PSD MPs could follow the decision to throw the original list into the garbage.

And the "trainwreck" continues.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Presidential elections: 24 Jan 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on February 02, 2021, 05:48:14 PM
CDS crisis: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos will present a motion of confidence in order to stop Adolfo Mesquita Nunes.

Update: The motion debate in the CDS's National Council meeting will be this Saturday.


Quote
Rodrigues dos Santos refuses to dispute the leadership with Mesquita Nunes and presents a motion of confidence

As expected, CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos presented a motion of confidence that will be discussed and voted next Saturday. It will be an on-line meeting because of the pandemic. In a speech in the CDS headquarters, "Chicão" said that in the last few days he received a lot of messages of support from the party's base and that he's confident his leadership will be strengthened. However, just this afternoon, another CDS leadership member resigned. Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, who is challenging Rodrigues dos Santos, has already reacted by saying that Rodrigues dos Santos lacks confidence and demanded, once again, snap leadership elections. Let's see what happens on Saturday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2021, 10:52:02 AM
The head of the Covid-19 vaccine plan resigned due to irregularities in the Hospital he presides:


Quote
Covid-19: the vaccination task force coordinator resigned.

The head of the Covid-19 vaccine plan team, Francisco Ramos, has resigned. According to the Health minister, he resigned after it was revealed that there were several irregularities in the Red Cross Hospital, which he is chairman, in the process of selecting staff for vaccination. More info is still to be given. Mr Ramos has been involved in some controversies lately, with the latest being a comment he made about the constant reports of illegal uses of the vaccine, by saying that the people who think that it's immoral to not give a 2nd dose to people who illegally got the 1st one are all Ventura voters and that these people have a "vengeful spirit".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2021, 02:26:52 PM
Covid-19 vaccine plan head resignation: PSD suggests that the Army should coordinate the plan.


Quote
Covid-19. Rui Rio defends that vaccination coordination be handed over to the Armed Forces.

The resignation of the Covid-19 vaccination head, Francisco Ramos, is already having reactions from parties. All the right parties, PSD, CDS, CHEGA and IL, are applauding the resignation of Mr Ramos, but they add that the reasons of the resignation are a bit weird as Mr Ramos didn't resigned from the board of the Red Cross Hospital which he presides. BE and PAN say they are worried by the reasons of the resignation. Talking to reporters, PSD leader Rui Rio said that this is an opportunity for the Government to change course and create a real task force with trained people for what needs to be done. Mr Rio said that if he was Prime Minister, he would call the Armed Forces to be involved in the logistics of the vaccine plan, adding that in the current rate of vaccines, the situation during the summer will still be dire. The PS, on the other hand, refuses the arguments of the PSD and says that the vaccination plan is going well, at the pace of the vaccines arriving from the EU. The PS spokesperson added that the population should have confidence in the plan.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2021, 06:43:00 PM
Ana Gomes has filed a complaint to the DA office asking for the extinction of CHEGA and an investigation surrounding their finances:


Quote
Ana Gomes with participation in PGR to extinguish Chega

During the campaign for the Presidency of the Republic, Ana Gomes pressed a lot on the issue that CHEGA should be illegal and would campaign for that. Now, just 1 week and half after the elections, Ana Gomes has filed a complaint demanding "the review of the legalization of CHEGA". In her filling, Ms Gomes lists several points regarding CHEGA's actions and that the DA office and the Constitutional Court cannot sit back and do nothing. She also asks for an investigation on how the party is being financed and also to investigate their leaders. She adds that the DA office has to ban all political parties classified as a military armed party/fascist organization. She also said she would sent her complaint to the EU. This idea has been trashed by many pundits saying it would do more harm than good and even PM Costa says that illegalizing a party isn't the right approach. Let's see how this unfolds.

Also, Ventura is in a bit of a "temper tantrum" after PSD drew him under the bus for the local elections, and is now threatening to bring down the Azores PSD led government:


Quote
Right-wing government at risk. Ventura flies to the Azores to assess whether if he tears up the agreement after the “bullying” of PSD and CDS

After the PSD and CDS decided to exclude CHEGA in the fall local elections coalitions, as it was overwhelmingly expected, Ventura became furious and accused PSD/CDS of "bullying" CHEGA. Ventura also said he would fly to the Azores to discuss with the 2 CHEGA MPs if he tears up the agreement between the rightwing parties or not. In October, there were huge tensions between the CHEGA-Azores and the national CHEGA because of a possible PSD led government, and even one high ranking CHEGA-Azores member left the party because of Ventura's positions. We'll see what happens. All of this seems bluff as what would CHEGA gain in bringing down the PSD government?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 05, 2021, 06:47:41 AM
Azores regional government: The media reports a record number of people being nominated for public jobs, with nominations between family members even.


Quote
Right-wing 'Geringonça' in the Azores with record nominations and family into the mix.

The current PSD-CDS-PPM government in the Azores, with the parliamentary support of CHEGA and IL, is being accused of making a record number of nominations for public jobs, with a lot of public jobs being given to family members of many PSD politicians. The current regional cabinet is bigger than the previous PS one and since the beginning of the current regional government, there were accusations that this government would cost more. This seems to be one of the reasons that is putting CHEGA uncomfortable and not Ventura's "temper tantrum" surrounding the 2021 local elections coalitions. Ventura will meet today with the President of the Azores government, José Manuel Bolieiro, to discuss "solutions for the future", whatever that means.

The PS is accusing the PSD of being hypocrites and of preaching one thing and doing another, but the PS-Azores is also in trouble due to a report that the DA office is investigating former Azores leader Carlos César and his son for corruption:


Quote
Carlos Sears and son investigated for alleged favoritism of private companies.

The media also reports that the former PS leader of the Azores Carlos César, who was in office between 1996-2012, and his son are being investigated for alledged corrupt deals that favoured a lot of private companies while he was in office. The investigation focus on alledge use of public subsidies to favour some companies. Carlos César, which is currently the President of the PS, says he has no knowledge of this investigation but is open to cooperate. Curiously, while he was in office, Mr César was also accused of nominating several family members to public jobs in the Azores, an accusation now given to the PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 05, 2021, 07:16:12 AM
Please, somebody explain to Ana Gomes that calling for the illegalization of CHEGA is dumb.

I wonder what Ventura and Bolieiro will have to say precisely. I don't think Ventura is salty enough to make the Azores government fall, and I really doubt he is actually bothered much by the PSD-Azores playing clientelarism (which, given this news Carlos César news, is probably quite ordinary in the Azores?)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 05, 2021, 09:10:55 AM
Please, somebody explain to Ana Gomes that calling for the illegalization of CHEGA is dumb.

I wonder what Ventura and Bolieiro will have to say precisely. I don't think Ventura is salty enough to make the Azores government fall, and I really doubt he is actually bothered much by the PSD-Azores playing clientelarism (which, given this news Carlos César news, is probably quite ordinary in the Azores?)

Clientelism is wide spread in Portugal, on the left and on the right. In all branches of government, national, regional and local, accusation of clientelism and nepotism are quite common. It's a cultural thing, I suppose. In 2019, the PS was actually rocked by the "Nepotism scandal", when it was revealed that many public jobs in the national level where given to wives, husbands, sons or cousins, of many prominent PS politicians. In the PSD, it's exactly the same, but because they have been out of power recently, there are few stories.

About the Ana Gomes action, the media is actually saying this is a huge mistake and that she will only succeed in portraying Ventura was a victim.

Also, update: Ventura will not tear the rightwing agreement in the Azores.  (https://observador.pt/2021/02/05/ventura-mantem-acordo-nos-acores-e-garante-que-bolieiro-nao-exclui-coligacoes-na-regiao/)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 05, 2021, 10:12:20 AM
Please, somebody explain to Ana Gomes that calling for the illegalization of CHEGA is dumb.

I wonder what Ventura and Bolieiro will have to say precisely. I don't think Ventura is salty enough to make the Azores government fall, and I really doubt he is actually bothered much by the PSD-Azores playing clientelarism (which, given this news Carlos César news, is probably quite ordinary in the Azores?)

Clientelism is wide spread in Portugal, on the left and on the right. In all branches of government, national, regional and local, accusation of clientelism and nepotism are quite common. It's a cultural thing, I suppose. In 2019, the PS was actually rocked by the "Nepotism scandal", when it was revealed that many public jobs in the national level where given to wives, husbands, sons or cousins, of many prominent PS politicians. In the PSD, it's exactly the same, but because they have been out of power recently, there are few stories.

About the Ana Gomes action, the media is actually saying this is a huge mistake and that she will only succeed in portraying Ventura was a victim.

Also, update: Ventura will not tear the rightwing agreement in the Azores.  (https://observador.pt/2021/02/05/ventura-mantem-acordo-nos-acores-e-garante-que-bolieiro-nao-exclui-coligacoes-na-regiao/)

Well...
I come from another Latin country, I can relate.

And good for Bolieiro, I guess. If I'm reading the title/article right, the PSD-CDS may still ally with CHEGA at the local elections but only in the Azores?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 05, 2021, 01:37:29 PM
Please, somebody explain to Ana Gomes that calling for the illegalization of CHEGA is dumb.

I wonder what Ventura and Bolieiro will have to say precisely. I don't think Ventura is salty enough to make the Azores government fall, and I really doubt he is actually bothered much by the PSD-Azores playing clientelarism (which, given this news Carlos César news, is probably quite ordinary in the Azores?)

Clientelism is wide spread in Portugal, on the left and on the right. In all branches of government, national, regional and local, accusation of clientelism and nepotism are quite common. It's a cultural thing, I suppose. In 2019, the PS was actually rocked by the "Nepotism scandal", when it was revealed that many public jobs in the national level where given to wives, husbands, sons or cousins, of many prominent PS politicians. In the PSD, it's exactly the same, but because they have been out of power recently, there are few stories.

About the Ana Gomes action, the media is actually saying this is a huge mistake and that she will only succeed in portraying Ventura was a victim.

Also, update: Ventura will not tear the rightwing agreement in the Azores.  (https://observador.pt/2021/02/05/ventura-mantem-acordo-nos-acores-e-garante-que-bolieiro-nao-exclui-coligacoes-na-regiao/)

Well...
I come from another Latin country, I can relate.

And good for Bolieiro, I guess. If I'm reading the title/article right, the PSD-CDS may still ally with CHEGA at the local elections but only in the Azores?
It seems that Bolieiro said he will not antagonize any party in terms of coalitions, meaning he didn't said neither yes or no. Still, it's very, very unlikely, if not impossible, a PSD-CHEGA coalition, but Bolieiro cannot afford for Ventura to "agitate the waters" of his government, right now. But, to be honest, Ventura looks like an "useful idiot" for Bolieiro as it doesn't make sense what he said that the Azores government would fight against family nominations, when they are precisely doing that. I don't know, but my hunch is that Bolieiro wants to solidify his position as President and when the time comes, if it comes, he will threw CHEGA under the bus. Would like to hear Crals take on this, also. :)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 05, 2021, 08:48:18 PM
CDS crisis: BPI bank refuses to give a loan to the party, and the current leadership blames a CDS member that is part of the bank's board.


Quote
BPI denies CDS loan for local elections. Leadership suspects of Lobo Xavier's influence

With the CDS holding tomorrow a very tense National Council that will vote on the future of Rodrigues dos Santos, the party is facing another problem: bankruptcy. The party is currently in a very bad financial situation that is making the current moment even worse. CDS asked for a loan from BPI bank for their 2021 local elections campaign, but the bank denied the loan. The bank didn't give details of the loan denail, but in the CDS leadership they are blaming another CDS member: António Lobo Xavier, the vice-president of BPI bank. They say that in previous elections, the loans were always given and that the "No" from the bank in suspicious and they blame Mr Lobo Xavier for trying to damage Rodrigues dos Santos. The theory, almost conspiracy, is that Lobo Xavier wants to force Rodrigues dos Santos out and when his rival, Mesquita Nunes, is in charge, the money will be given. Mr Lobo Xavier has already denied by saying he never mixes his professional life with his political life.

What a trainwreck. Let's see how tomorrow's National Council plays out. The vote will be by secret ballot.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 06, 2021, 10:44:43 AM
The CDS National Council started at 11am, but they are still discussing the how the meeting will procede. Members that are opposing the leadership are accusing Rodrigues dos Santos team of lack of transparency and of illegalities. The meeting is open to the media.

Updates here: https://observador.pt/liveblogs/rodrigues-dos-santos-e-mesquita-nunes-medem-forcas-pela-lideranca-do-cds/#liveblog-entry-516439


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 06, 2021, 12:13:47 PM
CDS crisis update:

Many supporters of Mesquita Nunes, the challenger of Rodrigues dos Santos, including Mesquita Nunes himself, have abandoned the National Council meeting accusing the leadership of more illegalities surrounding the idea of a secret ballot.

Because the meeting is open to the media, the CDS trainwreck is being broadcast live on TV.

Another update: After the party leadership accepted the secret ballot proposal, Mesquita Nunes and several of his supporters have returned to the meeting.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: crals on February 06, 2021, 03:28:54 PM
I hope for their own sake that CDS manage to sack Chicão but at the same time they don't make it easy at all to root for their survival

Please, somebody explain to Ana Gomes that calling for the illegalization of CHEGA is dumb.

I wonder what Ventura and Bolieiro will have to say precisely. I don't think Ventura is salty enough to make the Azores government fall, and I really doubt he is actually bothered much by the PSD-Azores playing clientelarism (which, given this news Carlos César news, is probably quite ordinary in the Azores?)

Clientelism is wide spread in Portugal, on the left and on the right. In all branches of government, national, regional and local, accusation of clientelism and nepotism are quite common. It's a cultural thing, I suppose. In 2019, the PS was actually rocked by the "Nepotism scandal", when it was revealed that many public jobs in the national level where given to wives, husbands, sons or cousins, of many prominent PS politicians. In the PSD, it's exactly the same, but because they have been out of power recently, there are few stories.

About the Ana Gomes action, the media is actually saying this is a huge mistake and that she will only succeed in portraying Ventura was a victim.

Also, update: Ventura will not tear the rightwing agreement in the Azores.  (https://observador.pt/2021/02/05/ventura-mantem-acordo-nos-acores-e-garante-que-bolieiro-nao-exclui-coligacoes-na-regiao/)

Well...
I come from another Latin country, I can relate.

And good for Bolieiro, I guess. If I'm reading the title/article right, the PSD-CDS may still ally with CHEGA at the local elections but only in the Azores?
It seems that Bolieiro said he will not antagonize any party in terms of coalitions, meaning he didn't said neither yes or no. Still, it's very, very unlikely, if not impossible, a PSD-CHEGA coalition, but Bolieiro cannot afford for Ventura to "agitate the waters" of his government, right now. But, to be honest, Ventura looks like an "useful idiot" for Bolieiro as it doesn't make sense what he said that the Azores government would fight against family nominations, when they are precisely doing that. I don't know, but my hunch is that Bolieiro wants to solidify his position as President and when the time comes, if it comes, he will threw CHEGA under the bus. Would like to hear Crals take on this, also. :)
I don't have much to add, except that it's very disappointing (yet very predictable) that the new government is doing exactly what the old one was accused of. Azores will be Azores I guess.

Also very predictable to see Ventura doing clownery for attention but that's not even worth mentioning at this point. In any case, now that the government has fulfilled its primary purpose of ending 24 years of PS rule I am not too invested in its continuation. :P


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 06, 2021, 03:56:35 PM
I hope for their own sake that CDS manage to sack Chicão but at the same time they don't make it easy at all to root for their survival

Yes, "Chicão" is very incompetent and everything he does and says seems amateur and weird. Just look at his derange speech in the party's council: (in his speech he says he's calm and serene... yeah.. sure)


However, I don't know if Adolfo Mesquita Nunes can revive the CDS, as the party is currently, well, useless. The CDS was always that party on the right that congregated all the people who believe the PSD was too centrist: the Liberals and the Conservatives. After the arrival of IL and CHEGA, CDS had nothing to offer these voters and even some of the moderates are now going to the PSD. Plus, if Mesquita Nunes is successful in winning the leadership, what will he do? Follow the strategy of Assunção Cristas, where Mesquita Nunes was her deputy, that gave the lowest share ever for CDS? Or goes with a Liberal strategy? Frankly, I don't know. We'll see.

I don't have much to add, except that it's very disappointing (yet very predictable) that the new government is doing exactly what the old one was accused of. Azores will be Azores I guess.

Also very predictable to see Ventura doing clownery for attention but that's not even worth mentioning at this point. In any case, now that the government has fulfilled its primary purpose of ending 24 years of PS rule I am not too invested in its continuation. :P

Like I said to Battista, it's a cultural thing Crals. It's not just in the Azores. But, the finger pointing between PS and PSD on this matter, reminds me of that spiderman meme with the two pointing to each other. :D


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 06, 2021, 05:27:31 PM
"Sereno e tranquilo"... lol
Chicão must have become a meme, right?

But I agree, the CDS is clearly a party that has outlived its usefulness. Many such cases.

Like I said to Battista, it's a cultural thing Crals. It's not just in the Azores. But, the finger pointing between PS and PSD on this matter, reminds me of that spiderman meme with the two pointing to each other. :D

Lmao


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 06, 2021, 05:51:13 PM
"Sereno e tranquilo"... lol
Chicão must have become a meme, right?

Chicão is already a meme, but not for this particular episode. He became a meme with his "scared face" when he was given a speech in Madeira, in March 2020, at the same time an earthquake stroked the island:


Priceless :D :D

Anyway, the CDS national council will stretch out until the early morning hours of tomorrow. The final vote is expect at 2:30am, but it's no certain it will happen at that hour.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 07, 2021, 07:16:53 AM
CDS National Council confidence vote: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos wins with 54%.


Quote
Confidence motion approved. Rodrigues dos Santos resists in CDS leadership

CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, was won the confidence motion he presented in the party's national council meeting. After more than 12 hours of discussion, that only ended way into the early hours of the morning, the results of the confidence vote were announced:

144 Approve (54.3%)
113 Disapprove (42.6%)
    8 Abstained (3.0%)

This victory by "Chicão" is being seen, by pundits, as a small one and that the party is very divided. However, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, the challenger, has accepted the result and is now open to face the fall local elections as a candidate. The results CDS, in several coalitions with the PSD, will have in the local elections, will be crucial for Rodrigues dos Santos leadership.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: crals on February 07, 2021, 09:40:30 AM
I hope for their own sake that CDS manage to sack Chicão but at the same time they don't make it easy at all to root for their survival

Yes, "Chicão" is very incompetent and everything he does and says seems amateur and weird. Just look at his derange speech in the party's council: (in his speech he says he's calm and serene... yeah.. sure)


However, I don't know if Adolfo Mesquita Nunes can revive the CDS, as the party is currently, well, useless. The CDS was always that party on the right that congregated all the people who believe the PSD was too centrist: the Liberals and the Conservatives. After the arrival of IL and CHEGA, CDS had nothing to offer these voters and even some of the moderates are now going to the PSD. Plus, if Mesquita Nunes is successful in winning the leadership, what will he do? Follow the strategy of Assunção Cristas, where Mesquita Nunes was her deputy, that gave the lowest share ever for CDS? Or goes with a Liberal strategy? Frankly, I don't know. We'll see.

I don't have much to add, except that it's very disappointing (yet very predictable) that the new government is doing exactly what the old one was accused of. Azores will be Azores I guess.

Also very predictable to see Ventura doing clownery for attention but that's not even worth mentioning at this point. In any case, now that the government has fulfilled its primary purpose of ending 24 years of PS rule I am not too invested in its continuation. :P

Like I said to Battista, it's a cultural thing Crals. It's not just in the Azores. But, the finger pointing between PS and PSD on this matter, reminds me of that spiderman meme with the two pointing to each other. :D
I don't think Mesquita Nunes would do much better than Chicão, but someone like Nuno Melo or Cecília Meireles might. A good leader would at least be a step forward. In any case it's sad to see an almost 50 year old party who was one of the founders of democracy die out.

Of course nepotism is part of the Portuguese culture as a whole (sadly), but I think it's particularly bad in the Azores, being small isolated islands.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 07, 2021, 10:48:07 AM
I don't think Mesquita Nunes would do much better than Chicão, but someone like Nuno Melo or Cecília Meireles might. A good leader would at least be a step forward. In any case it's sad to see an almost 50 year old party who was one of the founders of democracy die out.

Of course nepotism is part of the Portuguese culture as a whole (sadly), but I think it's particularly bad in the Azores, being small isolated islands.

I don't Nuno Melo is very popular, to be honest. He has become a bit of "weirdo" even for many CDS members. Cecília Meireles yes, she is very well regarded and is a very good MP. But, ultimately, Rodrigues dos Santos future in now linked to Rui Rio's future, which isn't a very omen, to be honest. If the PSD coalitions make big gains in the local elections, Chicão could say that the CDS has gained a lot of ground in the elections. However, it's widely expected that the PSD will not make significant gains in these elections, which could doom Rodrigues dos Santos.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2021, 09:25:12 AM
2021 local elections: Independent movements filed a complaint to the DA office to rule the latest change in the electoral law as unconstitutional.


Quote
Local elections. Changes in the electoral law call into question independent candidacies.

Last year, PS and PSD approved a change in the electoral law that would complicate independent candidacies for local elections. The new rules would forbid independent candidacies of running in the same ticket for mayor, assembly and parish, thus demanding the formation of separate candidacies, forbid the use of words like "party" or "coalition" in independent movement names, and more signatures would be necessary in order for lists to be approved, 3% of registered voters in each circle. The law also says that a judge, even in shift, could struck down any candidacy and force the repetition of all the process in a very, very short time. Independent movements are furious with the changes and have appealed to the DA office in order to analyse the change in the law and rule it unconstitutional. The movements also accuse PS and PSD of trying to prevent independent movement of running in the elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2021, 08:15:55 PM
2021 local elections: PSD will discuss a possible postponement of the fall local elections.


Quote
PSD President Rui Rio said today that the party decided to reflect on the possibility of a postponement of municipal elections and promised a position for "the next few days".

Some PSD local parties have been asking for a discussion about a possible postponement of the fall elections because of the pandemic and the delayed vaccine plan. Many PSD members consider that it will be nearly impossible to campaign for the elections if some restrictions continue as local elections campaigns are very person to person and door by door. Asked by reporters about this idea by some PSD members, Mr Rio said that he will consider it because in the last few days, he said, it was clear that the vaccine rollout plan is very delayed and the pandemic projections are still very in doubt. Mr Rio added he will hear several PSD mayors and party machine staff and make a final statement "in the coming days". The PS has already reacted by saying that this idea is "premature", but accused Rio of maybe having the fear "of confronting his internal opposition".

The 2021 local elections are schedule to be held between 22 September and 14 October. The date is called by the Prime Minister and has to be called 80 days in advance at minimum. Looking at the calendar, the most likeliest date is probably 26 September, as 3 October is near the 5 October holiday, this, of course, if nothing changes in the date.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 12, 2021, 05:36:01 AM
What a weird poll Aximage just released on the Funchal local elections:

Aximage poll for Funchal city (104,000 inhabitants) - PS incumbent  (https://leitor.jornaleconomico.pt/edicao/economico-madeira/49)

Vote share %:

60.9% PSD/CDS
22.4% PS/BE/PDR/NC
   3.0% CHEGA
   2.3% IL
   1.3% JPP
  1.0% Independent
   0.3% CDU
   0.3% PTP
   8.5% Others/Invalid

This data is if the PSD/CDS candidate is the vice president of the Madeira government, Pedro Calado. Other names were also polled and all defeated the incumbent PS mayor, Miguel Gouveia, but, currently, Pedro Calado seems to be the favourite pick within the PSD. However, the PSD/CDS coalition hasn't choose a candidate yet. Still, the poll is very weird as it gives a ridiculous lead for the PSD, as it is assumed that this race is currently too close to call, like the Eurosondagem poll, a few weeks ago, showed. We'll see what other polls say.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 12, 2021, 07:32:54 AM
2021 local elections: PSD has decided to present a bill to postpone the elections 60 days.


Quote
Rui Rio proposes that local elections be postponed for two months

After he hinted that possibility, a few days ago, Mr Rio announced that the PSD will present a bill to postpone the 2021 local elections for November/December, rather than in September/October. The PSD leader says he's "skeptical" that there will be 70% of the population fully vaccinated by August 31, that more time is needed and says that campaigning for a complex election like the local elections are impossible for just 20 days, during September. He adds that campaigning for local elections means knocking at doors, speaking to voters in rural and urban areas and that's impossible if there's no group immunity by the vaccines, plus he says that elections with limited campaigns benefit the local parties in power as those in the opposition cannot spread their message. Mr Rio concluded by saying this is what planning is like and that this is how he works, unlike the government.

P.S.: This postponement bill is doomed to fail as no party, other than the PSD, supports the idea.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Estrella on February 13, 2021, 01:33:06 AM
Not very on topic, but I've just discovered this absolutely amazing animey poster of MDP/CDE, a socialist party that existed in the 70s.

()


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Estrella on February 13, 2021, 01:46:38 AM
On a related note, I found some really cool stuff about the Carnation Revolution and chaos of the 70s.










Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 13, 2021, 08:01:33 AM
I think I posted, in the first Portugal election thread some of those videos. But, yes, they are very interesting and show how crazy the country was during 1974-75. Full and complete madness and we were literally at a brink of a civil war between the "reactionary" North and the "revolutionary" South. Thank God, cooler heads prevailed and in November 25, 1975, Portugal's revolutionary period ended. But, unfortunately, we still live with some of the effects of that period, economically at least.

Posters during the 70's were all very good. MDP/CDE was a very brief party actually. They only contested, alone, 3 elections: 1969, 1975 and 1987. They were a very strong opposition party during the Estado Novo and contested the 1969 elections, polling 2nd with 10%. In 1975, their result was a huge disappointment as it was expected they would perform quite well, and they polled behind CDS with just 4% of the votes. The party then formed a coalition with PCP that lasted until 1987, when PCP dumped MDP and formed a coalition with the Greens. Shortly after, the party was extinct and their former members, some went for CDU and others formed the Politics XXI party that later merged with the current Left Bloc (BE).

Posters from the 1975 elections: https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/politica/2015-04-24-recorde-os-cartazes-das-eleicoes-de-1975f817215/#&gid=0&pid=1 (my favourite is actually the PPD one, but I'm a bit biased ;) )

Also, first poll after the Presidential elections:

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/eurosondagem-ps-com-melhor-resultado-desde-as-legislativas-e-chega-na-terceira-posicao)

Vote share %:

39.3% PS (+0.3)
27.2% PSD (-0.8 )
   7.3% CHEGA (+1.8 )
   6.9% BE (+0.4)
   4.8% CDU (-0.5)
   3.0% IL (+1.7)
   2.5% CDS (+0.4)  
   2.0% PAN (-0.2)
   7.0% Others/Invalid (-3.1)

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 February 2021. Polled 1,022 voters. MoE of 2.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 14, 2021, 07:38:56 AM
Controversy in Lisbon regarding the renovation of the Imperial Square gardens: Former President Ramalho Eanes trashes the plans of Lisbon city hall and says that without an Empire, Portugal would be a "Catalonia".


Quote
Ramalho Eanes: "If it weren't for the empire, we would be a Catalonia".

For some months now, the discussion of the renovation of the Imperial Square in Lisbon, that would remove the Imperial coats of arms in the garden, has created a lot of controversy within and outside Lisbon city hall. Lisbon city wants to renovate the square but the rightwing opposition, PSD/CDS, and other personalities are totally against the renovation. The plan is already approved and works in the Square are due to start in some weeks, but petitions are growing in order to stop the renovation. Now, former President Ramalho Eanes (1976-1986), has come public and trashed the plan accusing the "festive left" of trying to erase the "memory of the past". He adds that some parts of the left don't have any respect for the history of the country. He continues to say that if Portugal didn't had an Empire, we wouldn't be able to maintain our independence and we would be a "minor Catalonia". Lisbon mayor, PS Fernando Medina, says the controversy in ridiculous as some of the coat of arms, in the gardens, are already not in the square for years


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 14, 2021, 11:06:44 AM
I hope for their own sake that CDS manage to sack Chicão but at the same time they don't make it easy at all to root for their survival

Yes, "Chicão" is very incompetent and everything he does and says seems amateur and weird. Just look at his derange speech in the party's council: (in his speech he says he's calm and serene... yeah.. sure)


However, I don't know if Adolfo Mesquita Nunes can revive the CDS, as the party is currently, well, useless. The CDS was always that party on the right that congregated all the people who believe the PSD was too centrist: the Liberals and the Conservatives. After the arrival of IL and CHEGA, CDS had nothing to offer these voters and even some of the moderates are now going to the PSD. Plus, if Mesquita Nunes is successful in winning the leadership, what will he do? Follow the strategy of Assunção Cristas, where Mesquita Nunes was her deputy, that gave the lowest share ever for CDS? Or goes with a Liberal strategy? Frankly, I don't know. We'll see.

I don't have much to add, except that it's very disappointing (yet very predictable) that the new government is doing exactly what the old one was accused of. Azores will be Azores I guess.

Also very predictable to see Ventura doing clownery for attention but that's not even worth mentioning at this point. In any case, now that the government has fulfilled its primary purpose of ending 24 years of PS rule I am not too invested in its continuation. :P

Like I said to Battista, it's a cultural thing Crals. It's not just in the Azores. But, the finger pointing between PS and PSD on this matter, reminds me of that spiderman meme with the two pointing to each other. :D
dissolve?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 14, 2021, 11:11:56 AM
It's something discussed by pundits and analysts. The liberal faction would go to IL, the conservatives for CHEGA and what rests of the "establishment" of the party goes to the PSD. But, it's complicated and unlikely. The most probable scenario is CDS having a slow and painful decline in the next few years, if, of course, if CHEGA and specially IL become permanent parties on the right.

Currently, the strategy of the CDS leadership, after winning the confidence vote, is that all of this attention/publicity to the party, could be beneficial for the parties prospects. Like the saying goes: "There's no bad publicity, just publicity". Curiously, the latest poll by Eurosondagem has CDS surpassing PAN, which hasn't happen in a while.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 14, 2021, 02:56:23 PM
Controversy in Lisbon regarding the renovation of the Imperial Square gardens: Former President Ramalho Eanes trashes the plans of Lisbon city hall as says that without an Empire, Portugal would be a "Catalonia".

Hilarious comment, if not snarkily vicious considering that there are elections in Catalonia just today and I am sure Ramalho Eanes is well aware of that.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 14, 2021, 03:07:40 PM
Controversy in Lisbon regarding the renovation of the Imperial Square gardens: Former President Ramalho Eanes trashes the plans of Lisbon city hall as says that without an Empire, Portugal would be a "Catalonia".

Hilarious comment, if not snarkily vicious considering that there are elections in Catalonia just today and I am sure Ramalho Eanes is well aware of that.
Maybe he was aware of it, but I believe his point is that Portugal would be weak and would ultimately be a part of Spain without an Empire. I have my doubts about that, but it's a valid point nonetheless. On a side note, it would be interesting to see how the Portuguese electorate sees the Catalonia Independent movement. There's no polling about it, and there seems to be no interest at all about it also.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 14, 2021, 06:03:53 PM
Controversy in Lisbon regarding the renovation of the Imperial Square gardens: Former President Ramalho Eanes trashes the plans of Lisbon city hall as says that without an Empire, Portugal would be a "Catalonia".

Hilarious comment, if not snarkily vicious considering that there are elections in Catalonia just today and I am sure Ramalho Eanes is well aware of that.
Maybe he was aware of it, but I believe his point is that Portugal would be weak and would ultimately be a part of Spain without an Empire. I have my doubts about that, but it's a valid point nonetheless. On a side note, it would be interesting to see how the Portuguese electorate sees the Catalonia Independent movement. There's no polling about it, and there seems to be no interest at all about it also.

Yeah that would be interesting. I have no idea what kind of support it would get except for the fact that CHEGA voters are likely all against it (side note: does CHEGA have any sort of close relationship with VOX?)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 14, 2021, 06:25:51 PM
Controversy in Lisbon regarding the renovation of the Imperial Square gardens: Former President Ramalho Eanes trashes the plans of Lisbon city hall as says that without an Empire, Portugal would be a "Catalonia".

Hilarious comment, if not snarkily vicious considering that there are elections in Catalonia just today and I am sure Ramalho Eanes is well aware of that.
Maybe he was aware of it, but I believe his point is that Portugal would be weak and would ultimately be a part of Spain without an Empire. I have my doubts about that, but it's a valid point nonetheless. On a side note, it would be interesting to see how the Portuguese electorate sees the Catalonia Independent movement. There's no polling about it, and there seems to be no interest at all about it also.

Yeah that would be interesting. I have no idea what kind of support it would get except for the fact that CHEGA voters are likely all against it (side note: does CHEGA have any sort of close relationship with VOX?)
They don't have that big of a relationship, IMO. CHEGA invented  a "meeting" between Ventura and Abascal last year, that was denied by Vox and it was an embarrassment for CHEGA. But, during the 2021 Presidential campaign, Abascal wasn't invited, at least what is public, to campaign with Ventura. Only Le Pen and Salvini were invited.

My hunch about what the Portuguese think about the Catalonia movement is that, they don't care, to be honest. However, I think it's almost unanimous that any kind or troubles and divisions in Spain are bad for Portugal, as Spain is our biggest economic partner. Like we say here: "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches a cold." So, we may don't care about what's happening in Catalonia, but any thing that creates troubles for Spain, would hit us in the face also. The government avoids talking about the issue and doesn't want to hear anything about.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 16, 2021, 09:18:49 AM
New Judge President of the Constitutional Court, João Caupers, is in hot waters after it was revealed he wrote in 2010 that he is "revolted" by the promotion of homosexuality:


Quote
TC. New president revolted by "gay lobby" and "promoting homosexuality".

The new Judge President of the Constitutional Court, João Caupers, elected last week, is in hot waters today as it was revealed, by the media, a paper he wrote in 2010 saying he's revolted by the promotion of homosexuality adding that they are no elite, just a minority tolerated by the heterosexual majority and that the "Gay lobby" is an expressionless minority amplified by the media. He finishes the paper by saying that while a member of the heterosexual majority, though respecting homosexuals, he's not willing to be "tolerated by them".

This text is creating a lot of controversy and Judge Caupers has already responded by saying the 2010 paper was just a "pedagogical instrument" to provoke students using caricature words and comparing somewhat abusive ideas. He adds that the ideas on the paper do not reflect his real beliefs.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 16, 2021, 12:04:41 PM
Resignation in Lisbon city hall due to irregular vaccinations: Civil Protection councillor, Carlos Castro, resigns after it was revealed he, and other 8 Lisbon civil protection staff, were vaccinated with leftovers from nursing homes vaccines.


Quote
Politics - Lisbon City Councilor resigns after controversy with Covid vaccines.

Last week it was revealed that Lisbon city councillor for Civil protection, Carlos Castro, and 8 other civil protection agents in the capital's city hall, were vaccinated with the leftovers from vaccines used in nursing homes. In this controversy, 126 vaccines were leftover and 26 were given to several city hall staff like those who manage syringes stocks. The other 100 were given to people in the 1st phase of vaccination. The opposition, after this was revealed, demanded the resignation of the councillor and Mr Castro has tendered his resignation today, which was accepted by Lisbon mayor, Fernando Medina (PS). A new councilor, Miguel Gaspar, will now take over the civil protection portfolio, and Lisbon city hall says that the situation will be investigated by the authorities.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 17, 2021, 06:53:17 AM
2021 local elections: Controversy with a dinner meeting between Rui Moreira's campaign and the PSD.


Quote
Rui Moreira does not reject a PSD support but only as an independent

During yesterday, the media reported that several meetings and a dinner between high PSD leadership members and Rui Moreira's, mayor of Porto, campaign were held to discuss a possible run of Rui Moreira with the support of the PSD. Allegedly, the PSD wanted Rui Moreira to run with the party's banner, but his campaign refused and only accepts the "support" of the PSD. However, the PSD denies they asked Moreira to run with the party's banner and that the idea actually came from Moreira's campaign, adding that Moreira's campaign even suggested including PSD members in the lists. Rui Moreira's campaign says they are sorry the meeting became public, but adds that they never suggested a PSD list head by Moreira and they he will run as an independent. They are, however, open to accept support from other parties.

The PSD candidate for Porto city is dividing the party. Some want the party to support Moreira, while others, like the leadership of PSD-Porto, want to present it own candidate. Because Moreira's electorate is basically all of the PSD electorate in Porto city, many argue that it would be better for the party to support him. However, relations between the PSD and Moreira have always been very bad, with Moreira and Rui Rio currently having a personal feud between them.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: CumbrianLefty on February 17, 2021, 11:25:21 AM
New Judge President of the Constitutional Court, João Caupers, is in hot waters after it was revealed he wrote in 2010 that he is "revolted" by the promotion of homosexuality:


Quote
TC. New president revolted by "gay lobby" and "promoting homosexuality".

The new Judge President of the Constitutional Court, João Caupers, elected last week, is in hot waters today as it was revealed, by the media, a paper he wrote in 2010 saying he's revolted by the promotion of homosexuality adding that they are no elite, just a minority tolerated by the heterosexual majority and that the "Gay lobby" is an expressionless minority amplified by the media. He finishes the paper by saying that while a member of the heterosexual majority, though respecting homosexuals, he's not willing to be "tolerated by them".

This text is creating a lot of controversy and Judge Caupers has already responded by saying the 2010 paper was just a "pedagogical instrument" to provoke students using caricature words and comparing somewhat abusive ideas. He adds that the ideas on the paper do not reflect his real beliefs.

Has this "explanation" been widely accepted?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 17, 2021, 02:47:10 PM
Has this "explanation" been widely accepted?
Of course not, obsiously. He's being mocked for being caught in his own crap, literally. It was also reported that when he was chosen as a judge for the Court, in 2014, he warned the other judges that he had written some serious, other light and foolish papers (https://www.publico.pt/2021/02/16/politica/noticia/caupers-avisou-tc-escrito-textos-ligeiros-tolos-1950950), that could be a problem, but no one cared. Now, it's out there.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 17, 2021, 04:18:27 PM
Another controversy: Petition to deport activist Mamadou Ba reaches more than 15,000 signatures, after Mamadou Ba called a Colonial War veteran who died last week as "bloodthirsty".


Quote
Nearly 15,000 people demand deportation of activist Mamadou Ba.

As I write this post, the actual number is above 22,000, rather than the 15,000 this morning. Anyway, a petition is demanding that activist Mamadou Ba be deported from Portugal due to his comments about the death of a Colonial War veteran. Mr Ba criticized the CDS vote of sorrow for the death of Marcelino da Mata, the most condecorated military officer in the history of the Portuguese army, and said that Marcelino da Mata was a "bloodthirsty" military, adding that Marcelino da Mata would rather "cut the testicles" and watch pro-independence fighters in the the colonies die than report them to the Secret Police (PIDE). The funeral of Marcelino de Mata had State honours with the presence of President Marcelo and several high profile army generals. After the statements of Mr Ba were known, parties on the right started to demand consequences for his words. CDS wants Mr Ba out of the SOS Racism organization, while CHEGA is going to file a complaint to the DA office.

The petition will probably be heard in Parliament as any petition with more than 4,000 signatures can be accepted and discussed in a Parliamentary committee, or discussed by parties in the floor of Parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 18, 2021, 01:15:30 PM
President Marcelo has sent the Euthanasia bill to the Constitutional Court:


Quote
Marcelo sends euthanasia law to the Constitutional Court.

President Marcelo has sent to the Constitutional Court the bill that legalizes the practice of euthanasia in Portugal. The President says he has Constitutional doubts about the bill explaining that (the bill) "uses excessively indeterminate concepts, in defining the permission requirements for the decriminalization of medically assisted death". The bill will now be analysed by the 13 judges of the Court.

Parties are starting to react to the President's decision: PS says they await with "calm and serenity" the verdict of the Court, while CDS says the President did the right thing and that the law creates a lot of "doubts". BE reacted by saying the bill has no unconstitutional issues.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 19, 2021, 07:03:44 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/liberais-travam-subida-do-chega?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias1)

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (-0.4)
24.7% PSD (+0.6)
   8.2% BE (-0.9)
   7.3% CHEGA (-1.8 )
   5.8% CDU (+0.1)
   5.6% IL (+1.8 )
   3.1% PAN (-0.5)
   2.7% CDS (+0.4)
   0.7% Livre (+0.5)
   0.7% Others (+0.1)
  3.6% Invalid/Blank (nc)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.1 António Costa (-0.3)
2.9 Rui Rio (-0.2)
2.7 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.3)
2.6 André Silva (-0.1)
2.4 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.2)
2.3 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
1.9 André Ventura (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 February 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: windjammer on February 20, 2021, 07:21:18 AM
How is Portugal handling COVID?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 20, 2021, 07:30:27 AM
Constitutional Court: PS accuses PSD of breaking the "gentlemen's agreement" between the 2 parties with the election of a new Judge President.


Quote
“PS was used to PSD fulfilling agreements”, shoots Ana Catarina Mendes on Caupers

The PS is very upset with the election of judge João Caupers as President of the Constitutional Court and is accusing the PSD of not following the "gentlemen's agreement" between both parties in the rotation of the Presidency of the Court. The previous president was a PSD appointee and now it was the PS turn. Although judge Caupers is a PS appointee and close to the party, the Socialists wanted judge José João Abrantes as President but, according to the PS, the PSD didn't persuade the 6 judges nominated by PSD/CDS, to vote one way or another. The PS accuses the PSD of breaking the deal and that they were accustomed of the PSD "fulfilling agreements". The PSD leader, Rui Rio, responded to this accusation, in a tweet, saying the PSD doesn't pressure judges in any form, but that the PS seems to work and think like that.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 20, 2021, 07:38:49 AM
This 3rd wave was a complete and total disaster in terms of handling. The decisions were taken very late, with a lot of back and forwards and, in the beginning, mid January, many people disrespecting the rules because they changed very quickly. There was a lot of governmental indecision like, for example, in the decision of closing schools. Right now, things are much better, cases and deaths are dropping a lot, and the vaccination plan seems to be back on the rails after a trainwreck start. There a still some controversies like the lack of staff to track infection contacts, and the government not presenting a plan to open the country by late March.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 20, 2021, 08:42:27 AM
2021 local elections: Ombudsman says the change in the electoral law is unconstitutional, and Rui Rio and Rui Moreira are in a "catfight" currently.


Quote
BREAKING NEWS| Ombudsman requires inspection of the constitutionality of the local electoral law - RTP Notícias

The Ombudsman, Maria Lúcia Amaral, has ruled that the change in the local elections electoral law is unconstitutional and that it should be reviewed. She has already sent the law to the Constitutional Court for review. Ms Amaral says the change of the law, in June 2020 with the support of PS and PSD, forbids a group of citizens of presenting candidacies to all levels of local government which violates two fundamental rights: the right of participation in public and political life and the right of citizens to be involved in promotion and safeguard of their your interests. She adds that the change in the law is a setback compared to the 1997 law that allowed the candidacy of Independents for mayors. The PS says they made a mistake in passing the bill, adding they didn't had time to read it properly and are open to changes. The PSD is also open to changes in the bill.

And here enters the current "catfight" between PSD leader Rui Rio and Porto's mayor Rui Moreira:


Quote
Rui Moreira responds to Rui Rio's  criticism and accuses him of lying.

In an interview to Observador newspaper, Rui Rio was asked about the ongoing controversy surrounding a possible PSD support of Rui Moreira's reelection campaign. Rio responded by saying the PSD will never support Moreira's campaign and added that Rui Moreira isn't a very trustworthy person and that he has been warning people of that for a while now. He also said that Moreira lied about the so-called dinner between some PSD members and Moreira's campaign staff and that his real estate dealing are a another reason for not supporting him. Moreira responded back to Rui Rio, accusing him of also being a liar and that Rio should have another way of being in politics. The feud between these two goes on and on. In fact, Rio was a crucial "unofficial" support for Moreira win in the 2013 election in Porto as Rio refused to support the then PSD candidate, his nemesis in the party, Luís Filipe Menezes. But, then, egos created a feud between Rio and Moreira and Rio even made peace with Filipe Menezes in 2019. A real soup opera.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 20, 2021, 01:01:27 PM
PS MP Ascenso Simões suggests the demolition of the Padrão dos Descobrimentos in Lisbon in the wake of the controversial vote of sorrow for the death of a Colonial war vet:


Quote
PS MP defends demolition of the Monument to the Discoveries

In an opes for Público newspaper, entitled "Salazarism did not die" (https://www.publico.pt/2021/02/19/opiniao/opiniao/salazarismo-nao-morreu-1951297), PS MP Ascenso Simões defends that the Padrão dos Descobrimentos in Lisbon should be demolish because if statues of Salazar were destroyed after 1974, the Padrão dos Descobrimentos should be destroyed because it's also a symbol of the dictatorial regime. In his opinion text, he goes on to say that Portugal never had a real empire and that all of it was a construction of the Salazar regime to perpetuate the myth of the Portuguese purpose. Another controversial part of the text is when he acknowledges that there should have been blood and deaths in the 25 April 1974 revolution, but to Observador newspaper, Mr Simões says he didn't mean literally real deaths, but an actual cut with the past to transform society. This opinion piece is creating a lot of controversy. Mr Simões was one of 3 PS MPs that voted against the vote of sorrow for the death of Colonial War vet Marcelino da Mata in Parliament.

Ascenso Simões is a very controversial figure within the PS as he has been involved in several controversies like last year he had a dispute with a police officer that almost ended in him being detained, and regularly insults and trashes a lot of people in his twitter page.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 21, 2021, 05:34:57 AM
I think Marcelo did the right thing with regards to euthanasia.
I would not expect the Constitutional Court to throw out the bill though.

The controversy between Rui Rio and Rui Moreira is almost hilarious. Since I've read that the former is the previous mayor of Porto, it looks to me a bit like he is trying to control his city's politics from the outside in a sense. Anyway, as the phrase goes: let them fight.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 21, 2021, 09:49:31 AM
I think Marcelo did the right thing with regards to euthanasia.
I would not expect the Constitutional Court to throw out the bill though.

The controversy between Rui Rio and Rui Moreira is almost hilarious. Since I've read that the former is the previous mayor of Porto, it looks to me a bit like he is trying to control his city's politics from the outside in a sense. Anyway, as the phrase goes: let them fight.

A ruling on the bill is expected during mid March, but the the outcome is uncertain. Many Constitutionalists argue that the bill could collide with some constitutional points like the inviolability of human life, plus there is a 7 judge majority with conservative values: 6 PSD/CDS judges and the newly elected Judge President João Caupers. We'll see what the Court says, but I say it's uncertain for now.

About the Rio vs Moreira feud, yeah, you're right about Rio wanting to have some say on Porto city's politics but the issue is that both are very popular in the city. Rio won Porto city in the 2019 elections, and Moreira is poised to win by a landslide this fall. Their feud is only personal, but of course it has implications in the PSD because, obviously, Rio is the leader and imposes his will, but Moreira has a lot of support within the PSD and even some of Rio's deputies are very close to Moreira.

Rio is prone to make a lot of enemies and that's why he's not popular for half of the PSD, because many of his fiercest enemies are in fact PSD members . If Rio had also a feud with Costa, many in the PSD would tolerate him, but Rio has a good relation with Costa which makes many of his critics, within the PSD, accuse him of being "Costa's crutch".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 21, 2021, 05:34:45 PM
Controversy in Lisbon regarding the renovation of the Imperial Square gardens: Former President Ramalho Eanes trashes the plans of Lisbon city hall as says that without an Empire, Portugal would be a "Catalonia".

Hilarious comment, if not snarkily vicious considering that there are elections in Catalonia just today and I am sure Ramalho Eanes is well aware of that.
Maybe he was aware of it, but I believe his point is that Portugal would be weak and would ultimately be a part of Spain without an Empire. I have my doubts about that, but it's a valid point nonetheless. On a side note, it would be interesting to see how the Portuguese electorate sees the Catalonia Independent movement. There's no polling about it, and there seems to be no interest at all about it also.

Yeah that would be interesting. I have no idea what kind of support it would get except for the fact that CHEGA voters are likely all against it (side note: does CHEGA have any sort of close relationship with VOX?)
i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 21, 2021, 05:55:55 PM
i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.

CHEGA and Vox may have some links, on social media, but overall, there seems to be not a big proximity between both, as one would think because Portugal and Spain are like "sister" countries. Ventura never campaign with Meloni, from what I'm aware. He did campaign with Le Pen, which he is very close, and was to campaign with Salvini but that was canceled due to the Italian political crisis. Ventura is also close to Salvini. Also, CHEGA is member of ID not ECR, which makes him closer to Le Pen/Salvini, rather than Meloni/Abascal.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 21, 2021, 06:00:34 PM
i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.

CHEGA and Vox may have some links, on social media, but overall, there seems to be not a big proximity between both, as one would think because Portugal and Spain are like "sister" countries. Ventura never campaign with Meloni, from what I'm aware. He did campaign with Le Pen, which he is very close, and was to campaign with Salvini but that was canceled due to the Italian political crisis. Ventura is also close to Salvini. Also, CHEGA is member of ID not ECR, which makes him closer to Le Pen/Salvini, rather than Meloni/Abascal.
i swear i saw a photo of ventura and meloni some where and isnt vox only in the ecr because of lega having tieds to regionals parties?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 21, 2021, 06:06:04 PM
i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.

CHEGA and Vox may have some links, on social media, but overall, there seems to be not a big proximity between both, as one would think because Portugal and Spain are like "sister" countries. Ventura never campaign with Meloni, from what I'm aware. He did campaign with Le Pen, which he is very close, and was to campaign with Salvini but that was canceled due to the Italian political crisis. Ventura is also close to Salvini. Also, CHEGA is member of ID not ECR, which makes him closer to Le Pen/Salvini, rather than Meloni/Abascal.
i swear i saw a photo of ventura and meloni some where and isnt vox only in the ecr because of lega having tieds to regionals parties?
I'm not aware of any photo of them, to be honest. Yes, Abascal and Salvini have feud, it seems, because of  Salvini's ties with pro-independence movements, and the Catalonia issue is a big divide between both men and parties.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 21, 2021, 06:17:29 PM
i see chega leader likeing some of vox social media pages. and chega leader did campagin with meloni of brother of italy who party is apart of the ecr with vox.

CHEGA and Vox may have some links, on social media, but overall, there seems to be not a big proximity between both, as one would think because Portugal and Spain are like "sister" countries. Ventura never campaign with Meloni, from what I'm aware. He did campaign with Le Pen, which he is very close, and was to campaign with Salvini but that was canceled due to the Italian political crisis. Ventura is also close to Salvini. Also, CHEGA is member of ID not ECR, which makes him closer to Le Pen/Salvini, rather than Meloni/Abascal.
i swear i saw a photo of ventura and meloni some where and isnt vox only in the ecr because of lega having tieds to regionals parties?
I'm not aware of any photo of them, to be honest. Yes, Abascal and Salvini have feud, it seems, because of  Salvini's ties with pro-independence movements, and the Catalonia issue is a big divide between both men and parties.
it seem just to be something keeping them being apart of the same group but not for respecting one another https://www.eutimes.net/2019/09/populist-vox-leader-salvini-was-ousted-from-government-by-eu-plot/


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 22, 2021, 05:39:22 AM
Eurosondagem seat projection based on their February poll:  (https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/725649/sondagem-ps-a-beira-da-maioria-absoluta-e-chega-com-3-bancada) (in parentheses, the 2019 seats results)

Seat projection:
(116 needed for a majority)

111/118 PS (108)
     75/80 PSD (79)
     10/19 CHEGA (1)
       7/12 BE (19)
         5/9 CDU (12)
         3/5 IL (1)
            2 CDS (5)
            2 PAN (4)

Share of the vote % of the poll:
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/eurosondagem-ps-com-melhor-resultado-desde-as-legislativas-e-chega-na-terceira-posicao)

Vote share %:

39.3% PS (+0.3)
27.2% PSD (-0.8 )
   7.3% CHEGA (+1.8 )
   6.9% BE (+0.4)
   4.8% CDU (-0.5)
   3.0% IL (+1.7)
   2.5% CDS (+0.4)  
   2.0% PAN (-0.2)
   7.0% Others/Invalid (-3.1)

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 February 2021. Polled 1,022 voters. MoE of 2.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 22, 2021, 01:15:21 PM
2021 Local elections: Update on the state of the races and candidacies.

Lisbon: PSD/CDS has yet to announce a candidate but it seems that, currently, the most likely candidate is Ricardo Batista Leite (https://eco.sapo.pt/2021/02/18/se-tiver-um-resultado-nas-autarquicas-assumo-a-responsabilidade-diz-rio/). Internal polling suggests that Carlos Moedas is the best name to face the PS, but it seems that Mr Moedas is unavailable to run. The name will probably be revealed during March. PS will ran incumbent mayor Fernando Medina for a 2nd full term.

Porto: Rui Moreira is the overwhelming favourite and PS/PSD are having problems in finding candidates. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-02-19-PS-e-PSD-as-avessas-no-Porto.-Numero-dois-de-Costa-disponivel) PSD seems to be considering Rio's deputy when he was mayor and the President of Paranhos parish, the only PSD parish in Porto city. The PS has several names, including the party's spokesperson José Luís Carneiro, Manuel Pizarro, the party's candidate in 2013 and 2017, and Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro.

Coimbra: In the "university city", the PS is fearing a PSD/CDS+Independent alliance that could unseat incumbent PS mayor Manuel Machado. However, this alliance is dividing the local PSD party after the national leadership rejected the candidate approved by the local party (https://www.publico.pt/2021/02/21/politica/noticia/decisao-chumbar-nuno-freitas-errada-desrespeitadora-1951583). Negotiations between PSD and the Independent movement "We are Coimbra", which achieved 16% in 2017, are still ongoing.

Évora: The incumbent CDU mayor is allowed to run for a 3rd term, but the colapse of CDU in recent elections could make this city a very vulnerable one for CDU and a very strong target for the PS. A new independent movement was announced that will run (https://www.radiocampanario.com/ultimas/regional/autarquicas-2021-foi-hoje-apresentado-o-novo-movimento-independente-cuidar-evora) which could shake things up in the capital of the Alentejo. In a funny note, the PSD candidate for Évora is called Henrique Sim-Sim (Henry Yes-Yes). (https://www.radiocampanario.com/ultimas/regional/autarquicas-2021-henrique-sim-sim-candidato-do-psd-a-camara-de-evora) xD

Setúbal: In this city, the incumbent CDU mayor is barred from running again, making this city another target for the PS. The Socialists are expected to run Ana Catarina Mendes, Costa's deputy in the PS. (https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2021-02-12-Autarquicas.-PCP-quer-recuperar-CM-de-Almada-e-PS-responde-com-aposta-forte-em-Setubal) PSD is expected to run Fernando Negrão as candidate, a re-run of his candidacy in 2005 when he polled 25%, one of the best results of the PSD in the city, but it's very unlikely he will repeat the same share.

Sintra: Incumbent PS mayor, Basílio Horta, is expected to run for a 3rd term, but the PSD/CDS is having problems in finding a candidate. Rumours have come and gone that Santana Lopes would be the candidate, but the most likely scenario is the repetition of Marco Almeida's 2017 PSD run.

Almada: One of the shock results of 2017, when PS stole it from CDU, the Communist-Green alliance is running the still mayor of Setúbal, Maria das Dores Meira (https://www.publico.pt/2020/06/15/politica/noticia/presidente-camara-setubal-admite-candidatarse-municipio-almada-2021-1920613), as a candidate to face incumbent mayor, Inês de Medeiros. The race is expected to be very close.

Funchal: Another too close to call race. Polls are suggesting a very close race, but the certain PSD/CDS coalition has yet to announce the name that will face the incumbent PS mayor, Miguel Gouveia. The most talked about name is the Vice President of the Madeira government, Pedro Calado, (https://www.dnoticias.pt/2021/2/6/249752-concelhia-do-psd-m-quer-pedro-calado-candidato-a-camara-do-funchal/) and this race could have an impact in the stability of the current PSD/CDS coalition governing the Madeira region.

Will update more info about other cities when available.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 22, 2021, 04:05:16 PM
2021 Local elections: Update on the state of the races and candidacies.

Lisbon: PSD/CDS has yet to announce a candidate but it seems that, currently, the most likely candidate is Ricardo Batista Leite (https://eco.sapo.pt/2021/02/18/se-tiver-um-resultado-nas-autarquicas-assumo-a-responsabilidade-diz-rio/). Internal polling suggests that Carlos Moedas is the best name to face the PS, but it seems that Mr Moedas is unavailable to run. The name will probably be revealed during March. PS will ran incumbent mayor Fernando Medina for a 2nd full term.

Porto: Rui Moreira is the overwhelming favourite and PS/PSD are having problems in finding candidates. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-02-19-PS-e-PSD-as-avessas-no-Porto.-Numero-dois-de-Costa-disponivel) PSD seems to be considering Rio's deputy when he was mayor and the President of Paranhos parish, the only PSD parish in Porto city. The PS has several names, including the party's spokesperson José Luís Carneiro, Manuel Pizarro, the party's candidate in 2013 and 2017, and Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro.

Coimbra: In the "university city", the PS is fearing a PSD/CDS+Independent alliance that could unseat incumbent PS mayor Manuel Machado. However, this alliance is dividing the local PSD party after the national leadership rejected the candidate approved by the local party (https://www.publico.pt/2021/02/21/politica/noticia/decisao-chumbar-nuno-freitas-errada-desrespeitadora-1951583). Negotiations between PSD and the Independent movement "We are Coimbra", which achieved 16% in 2017, are still ongoing.

Évora: The incumbent CDU mayor is allowed to run for a 3rd term, but the colapse of CDU in recent elections could make this city a very vulnerable one for CDU and a very strong target for the PS. A new independent movement was announced that will run (https://www.radiocampanario.com/ultimas/regional/autarquicas-2021-foi-hoje-apresentado-o-novo-movimento-independente-cuidar-evora) which could shake things up in the capital of the Alentejo. In a funny note, the PSD candidate for Évora is called Henrique Sim-Sim (Henry Yes-Yes). (https://www.radiocampanario.com/ultimas/regional/autarquicas-2021-henrique-sim-sim-candidato-do-psd-a-camara-de-evora) xD

Setúbal: In this city, the incumbent CDU mayor is barred from running again, making this city another target for the PS. The Socialists are expected to run Ana Catarina Mendes, Costa's deputy in the PS. (https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2021-02-12-Autarquicas.-PCP-quer-recuperar-CM-de-Almada-e-PS-responde-com-aposta-forte-em-Setubal) PSD is expected to run Fernando Negrão as candidate, a re-run of his candidacy in 2005 when he polled 25%, one of the best results of the PSD in the city, but it's very unlikely he will repeat the same share.

Sintra: Incumbent PS mayor, Basílio Horta, is expected to run for a 3rd term, but the PSD/CDS is having problems in finding a candidate. Rumours have come and gone that Santana Lopes would be the candidate, but the most likely scenario is the repetition of Marco Almeida's 2017 PSD run.

Almada: One of the shock results of 2017, when PS stole it from CDU, the Communist-Green alliance is running the still mayor of Setúbal, Maria das Dores Meira (https://www.publico.pt/2020/06/15/politica/noticia/presidente-camara-setubal-admite-candidatarse-municipio-almada-2021-1920613), as a candidate to face incumbent mayor, Inês de Medeiros. The race is expected to be very close.

Funchal: Another too close to call race. Polls are suggesting a very close race, but the certain PSD/CDS coalition has yet to announce the name that will face the incumbent PS mayor, Miguel Gouveia. The most talked about name is the Vice President of the Madeira government, Pedro Calado, (https://www.dnoticias.pt/2021/2/6/249752-concelhia-do-psd-m-quer-pedro-calado-candidato-a-camara-do-funchal/) and this race could have an impact in the stability of the current PSD/CDS coalition governing the Madeira region.

Will update more info about other cities when available.
Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 22, 2021, 07:08:00 PM
Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???
Yes, regionalisation has been debated for decades now and was even subject to a referendum in 1998 that failed 64% to 36% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Portuguese_regionalisation_referendum). The map proposed in that referendum was completely ridiculous, creating 8 new regions. The current format proposed 5 new regions: North, Center, Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve. However, like I said above, it's still being debated with polls suggesting a slight advantage for the yes but nothing definitive. Personally, I don't support the creation of 5 new regions with all the structure that weighs. If Portugal already has issues in financing one Parliament, 2 autonomous regions and 308 municipalities, how would 5 new regions work? That's the debate.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 23, 2021, 09:04:51 AM
Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???
Yes, regionalisation has been debated for decades now and was even subject to a referendum in 1998 that failed 64% to 36% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Portuguese_regionalisation_referendum). The map proposed in that referendum was completely ridiculous, creating 8 new regions. The current format proposed 5 new regions: North, Center, Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve. However, like I said above, it's still being debated with polls suggesting a slight advantage for the yes but nothing definitive. Personally, I don't support the creation of 5 new regions with all the structure that weighs. If Portugal already has issues in financing one Parliament, 2 autonomous regions and 308 municipalities, how would 5 new regions work? That's the debate.
so its unlikely to happen?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 23, 2021, 09:13:40 AM
Was expanding the regionals assemblies to other regions every considered???
Yes, regionalisation has been debated for decades now and was even subject to a referendum in 1998 that failed 64% to 36% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Portuguese_regionalisation_referendum). The map proposed in that referendum was completely ridiculous, creating 8 new regions. The current format proposed 5 new regions: North, Center, Lisbon, Alentejo and Algarve. However, like I said above, it's still being debated with polls suggesting a slight advantage for the yes but nothing definitive. Personally, I don't support the creation of 5 new regions with all the structure that weighs. If Portugal already has issues in financing one Parliament, 2 autonomous regions and 308 municipalities, how would 5 new regions work? That's the debate.
so its unlikely to happen?
In the near future, yes it's unlikely, there's not much political will to go ahead with it. However, the government is starting to give more powers to city halls in a kind of "mini regionalisation". City halls are starting to have more powers in dealing with healthcare, education and others topics, but, local officials argue that the government is handing over more powers to city halls but financing continues to drop, which makes things quite difficult for local governments.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 23, 2021, 03:41:29 PM
2021 Local elections: Update on the state of the races and candidacies.

Adding to this, here's the current state of parties in the local level:

Mayors by party: (% of mayors)

160 PS (52.0%)
   98 PSD (31.8%)
   24 CDU (7.8%)
  17 Independent (5.5%)
     6 CDS (2.0%)
     1 JPP (0.3%)
     1 NC (0.3%)
     1 Livre (0.3%)
     0 BE (0.0%)
     0 PAN (0.0%)

Parish Presidents by party:* (% of presidents)
*after by-elections between 2017-2020

1,302 PS (42.2%)
1,164 PSD (37.7%)
   402 Independent (13.0%)
    140 CDU (4.5%)
      62 CDS (2.0%)
        7 Livre (0.2%)
        5 JPP (0.2%)
        3 NC (0.1%)
        0 BE (0.0%)
        0 PAN (0.0%)

The PS vs PSD gap is huge, 62, which makes it literally impossible for the PSD to aim to surpass the PS in terms of cities. However, and unlike 2013 and 2017, the PS has more mayors barred from running again, a total of 19 against the 14 of the PSD. At least 9 PS mayors, that were term limited, ran for Parliament in the 2019 general elections and were succeeded by their deputies, who can run for a full term.

In terms of parishes, the margin between PS and PSD is much more narrow, however, the PSD suffered some blows during by-elections between 2017 and last year. The party lost 3 parishes, some to the PS and at least 2 for CDS, while the other parties hold on.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 24, 2021, 06:10:26 AM
President Marcelo is upset with Costa's lack of planning in reopening the country:


Quote
Marcelo uncomfortable with lack of government planning

With the number of new cases, deaths, hospitalizations and ICUs dropping massively in the last few weeks, although the mass testing program the government announced isn't still operational and testing is dropping from an average of 70,000 per day in January to just 30,000 in February, a debate has started on how to reopen the country after this 2nd lockdown. This time, Costa is very nervous and cautious in opening the country rapidly after the several missteps in the last few months, and is delaying the presentation of a plan to reopen the country. According to the media, President Marcelo is very upseat and uncomfortable with Costa's lack of planning, while the government is responding that they are talking with specialists to define the criteria to forge a plan. Government sources say that it's still very soon to talk about reopening the country because it could give "the wrong signal" to the population and make everything worse, as the risk of another wave hasn't gone away.

At the same time, several people, from doctors, teachers, parents, economists, etc, signed an open letter pleading the government to reopen some schools (https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2021-02-23-Prioridade-a-escola-a-carta-aberta--na-integra--que-apela-a-reabertura-das-escolas-ja-em-marco), like 1st grade and kindergardens, in the first days of March. However, a poll released today, by Aximage, in JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio, shows that more than 80% of the electorate wants schools closed until mid March. A majority also disapproves the government's handling in the preparation of online schooling:

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/escolas-ensino-a-distancia-e-teletrabalho-o-impacto-da-covid-13385669.html)

Q1: Do you think schools should be closed until the second half of March?

82% Yes
15% No
  3% Undecided

Q2: In your opinion, until when should schools be closed?

42% Until Easter
27% Until mid March
15% Until the summer
  9% Until May
17% Undecided

Q3: How to rate the government's handling of school closures and the preparation for online schooling?

40% Disapprove
29% Approve
28% Average
  3% Undecided

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 February 2021. Polled 822 voters. MoE of 3.40%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 24, 2021, 10:48:24 AM
2021 Local elections: Update on the state of the races and candidacies.

Adding to this, here's the current state of parties in the local level:

Mayors by party: (% of mayors)

160 PS (52.0%)
   98 PSD (31.8%)
   24 CDU (7.8%)
  17 Independent (5.5%)
     6 CDS (2.0%)
     1 JPP (0.3%)
     1 NC (0.3%)
     1 Livre (0.3%)
     0 BE (0.0%)
     0 PAN (0.0%)

Parish Presidents by party:* (% of presidents)
*after by-elections between 2017-2020

1,302 PS (42.2%)
1,164 PSD (37.7%)
   402 Independent (13.0%)
    140 CDU (4.5%)
      62 CDS (2.0%)
        7 Livre (0.2%)
        5 JPP (0.2%)
        3 NC (0.1%)
        0 BE (0.0%)
        0 PAN (0.0%)

The PS vs PSD gap is huge, 62, which makes it literally impossible for the PSD to aim to surpass the PS in terms of cities. However, and unlike 2013 and 2017, the PS has more mayors barred from running again, a total of 19 against the 14 of the PSD. At least 9 PS mayors, that were term limited, ran for Parliament in the 2019 general elections and were succeeded by their deputies, who can run for a full term.

In terms of parishes, the margin between PS and PSD is much more narrow, however, the PSD suffered some blows during by-elections between 2017 and last year. The party lost 3 parishes, some to the PS and at least 2 for CDS, while the other parties hold on.

I am very surprised that BE doesn't even have a single parish president, considering that it's pretty clearly the third largest party in Portugal, and especially compared to Livre (of course CDU and CDS are smaller too, but the former has a vote very concentrated in a specific region and the latter is normally allied with PSD so it's not surprising that they do better at this).
And what are JPP and NC? Regional parties found in the Azores or Madeira? Never heard of them before.



Also, any new updates about other major cities? Braga? Faro? Ponta Delgada?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 24, 2021, 11:33:16 AM
I am very surprised that BE doesn't even have a single parish president, considering that it's pretty clearly the third largest party in Portugal, and especially compared to Livre (of course CDU and CDS are smaller too, but the former has a vote very concentrated in a specific region and the latter is normally allied with PSD so it's not surprising that they do better at this).
And what are JPP and NC? Regional parties found in the Azores or Madeira? Never heard of them before.



Also, any new updates about other major cities? Braga? Faro? Ponta Delgada?

BE has a very weak local party structure and normally only runs in the big cities or medium size cities. Like in general elections, BE fails to win parishes because its main strongholds are the big urban areas and in these areas, in local elections, the leftwing vote concentrates their votes in either PS or CDU, or even both depending on the race in question. That one Livre city is a Livre-PS coalition in Felgueiras, Porto, because in 2017, there were tensions in the local PS on who should run and the favourite PS candidate decided to run alone and gained the support of Livre. The PS, seeing the mess they had made, decided to support him also. CDS is strong in some cities, mainly rural ones or where the rightwing vote is overwhelming. The rural areas of Viana, Viseu and Aveiro are fertile ground for CDS.

JPP is the "Together for the People" party. It's a party with roots in Madeira formed by the mayor of Santa Cruz, Madeira's 2nd largest municipality, in 2014 after winning the mayor race in 2013, in Santa Cruz, as an independent. The party is only strong in Madeira. NC is "We, the Citizens" party and currently holds the city of Oliveira de Frades, Viseu. It's a small center-right party, that won that city from the PSD, in 2017, after tensions in the local PSD and the leftwing opposition to the PSD in that city concentrated all their votes in NC to defeat the PSD/CDS ticket.

Because of the pandemic, parties are delaying the announcement of candidates and currently there's not a lot of info as one would expect for this time in a normal election year. Nonetheless, here's some updates on those cities listed above:

Braga seems that will be a safe hold for PSD/CDS, the district as whole, the "Portuguese Ohio", has been trending PSD in the last few years and was one of the few places the PSD made gains in both 2013 and 2017;

Faro is always too close to call. That city has always very competitive elections and is impossible to predict, and it will be a close PSD vs PS race there, with the PSD holding power since 2009. Since 2001, the best winning margin for a party was 6% in 2017 and the closest 0.42% in 2009.

Ponta Delgada has always been governed by the PSD, with a short break between 1989 and 1993, but recently has had some problems as since José Manuel Bolieiro, current President of the Azores, left the post of mayor of Ponta Delgada, the city has had two different mayors. It's also a very too close to call race as the PSD and PS normally are close, although, till now, the PSD has almost always prevailed. The results in the Azores will also have an impact in the stability of the fragile PSD/CDS/PPM coalition with the outside support of CHEGA and IL.

Other cities have also some updates: In Albufeira, Algarve, there will be a split in the PSD with the former PSD mayor running as an Independent (https://www.publico.pt/2021/02/22/politica/noticia/desiderio-silva-apresenta-candidatura-independente-albufeira-inicio-marco-1951712) and he will face the incumbent PSD mayor; In Batalha, Leiria, the former PS mayor of Leiria, Raul Castro, will run (https://www.publico.pt/2021/02/19/politica/noticia/raul-castro-assume-candidatura-independente-camara-batalha-1951456) in order to defeat the incumbent PSD mayor. In Barcelos city, Braga, the incumbent PS mayor faces several corruption scandals, although he's barred from running for a 4th term, but the PSD is very divided on which candidate to choose.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 25, 2021, 06:02:18 AM
2021 local elections: Independent mayors will meet, this Saturday, to discuss a possible creation of an "Independents Party" to run in national elections and put pressure on PS and PSD.


Quote
Independent mayors meet on Saturday to discuss forming a party

Even though PS and PSD already said they are open to changes in the electoral law they approved in June 2020, the controversy continues. The 17 Independent mayors will meet this Saturday in São João da Pesqueira, Viseu, to discuss what paths they should persue. On the table is the creation of an "Independents Party" in order to dodge the changes passed by PS and PSD and put pressure in the two main parties. They will also discuss what they want to be changed or reverted in the law. The changes in the electoral law for local elections are currently being analysed by the Constitutional Court after the Ombudsman said the law was unconstitutional, in her view.

However, creating a party for the 2021 local election, right now, seems almost impossible due to time limits, as for a party to be legalized it needs a minimum of 7,500 signatures and the Constitutional Court normally takes months to approve a party.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 25, 2021, 10:52:42 AM
Controversy as a fake lockdown end plan spreads on social media and the government is forced to say it's fake:


Quote
Observador chronicler is the author of the false deconfinition plan: “It was shared in a closed group of friends”

It's the controversy of the day in Portugal. At a time when the government is being pressured and criticized for not presenting a plan to reopen the country, this morning, a so called "plan" started circulating on social media. The plan, a single PDF page, was deemed as real by many people but the government was forced to intervene and sent out a press release saying the plan was fake and that it will ask the DA office to investigate this. The media is already revealing the identity of who made the "fake" plan: it's an Observador newspaper, aligned with the rightwing, chronicler named Carlos Macedo e Cunha. To the media, he said he did the plan to discuss it with friends in a close chat room on WhatsApp and then presenting it to the government, but that someone stole it, put the governmental logo on it and posted in on social media.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 25, 2021, 02:39:21 PM
Lisbon: PSD/CDS has yet to announce a candidate but it seems that, currently, the most likely candidate is Ricardo Batista Leite (https://eco.sapo.pt/2021/02/18/se-tiver-um-resultado-nas-autarquicas-assumo-a-responsabilidade-diz-rio/). Internal polling suggests that Carlos Moedas is the best name to face the PS, but it seems that Mr Moedas is unavailable to run. The name will probably be revealed during March. PS will ran incumbent mayor Fernando Medina for a 2nd full term.
There seems to have been an U-turn in Mr Moedas decision:


Quote
Carlos Moedas meets with Rio about candidacy to Lisbon city.

The media is reporting it as set and done and that the goal is to forge a PSD/CDS/IL coalition in Lisbon. Rui Rio has also confirmed it.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 26, 2021, 09:45:03 PM
2021 local elections: Internal PS poll on Braga city leaked by the local press.  (https://ominho.pt/quem-pediu-inquerito-sobre-autarquicas-no-concelho-de-braga-ps-diz-que-foi-o-psd-este-nega/)

Braga city, 183,000 inhabitants - PSD/CDS/PPM incumbent

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

52.9% PSD/CDS/PPM (+0.8 )
27.7% PS (-0.2)
   9.7% CDU (+0.1)
   5.2% BE (+0.4)
   4.6% Others/Invalid (-1.0)

Poll conducted by DOMP polling company during late January/early February 2021.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 27, 2021, 10:54:22 AM
2021 local elections: PS and PSD deciding the fate of almost 100 mayors/local officials involved in corruption investigations.  (https://zap.aeiou.pt/eter-teia-ps-psd-autarcas-suspeitos-383946)


Quote
With two dozen accused candidates, PSD and PS want to evaluate case by case who runs again

In this fall local elections, several mayors, eligible to run again, are accused or being investigated for corruption. At least two dozen mayors from PS and PSD, plus almost a 100 local officials from councillors to parish presidents, are involved in corrupt deals and their fate is being evaluated by the leadership of the two main parties. Regarding the "Operation Éter", a corrupt investigation where local officials made deals to construct public facilities with companies of the former chairman of the Tourism of the North, the PSD has more than 4 mayors accused/investigated, while the PS has more than 5 mayors accused. All of them lead cities which are strongholds of either the PS or PSD. Other corrupt investigations like the" Web Operation" specially affects the PS and one of their strongholds, Santo Tirso, where the historic mayor of that city, Joaquim Couto, released from jail on bail. He is accused of pressuring other mayors, from all parties, to do business with his wife's company. The current mayor of Santo Tirso, Mr Couto deputy, is also accused of corrupt deals of his own.

The most newsworthy investigation is "Operation Tutti-Frutti", where many mayors, parish presidents and members of PS/PSD are accused of forging deals between them is exchange of payments and direct agreements. This investigation affects the cities of Lisbon (PS), Oeiras (Ind), Barcelos (PS) and Famalicão (PSD). CHEGA leader André Ventura was also raided because of this investigation as one of his advisors is being accused. Other investigation, "Operation Final Route", involves only PSD mayors, or former ones, which are accused of forging shady deals with Transdev transport company worth more than 22 million euros. One of the accused, Francisco Lopes, is the PSD candidate in Lamego city. The most recent investigation relates to fraud in the Covid-19 vaccination plan and it involves the mayors of Portimão and Reguengos de Monsaraz, both from the PS.

Expresso newspaper says that the 2 main parties are analysing each case and seeing how severe the accusations are towards every single candidate. The PSD argues that they will not make "public judgments" of the candidates and that only those condemned in a Court of law will be rejected as candidates. The PS follows an identical path.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on February 28, 2021, 11:40:20 AM
2021 local elections: Independent mayors demand changes in the electoral law until 31 March.


Quote
Independent mayors demand changes to the electoral law by March 31

The meeting between the 17 independent mayors was held, yesterday, in São João da Pesqueira, Viseu, and they demanded that the two main parties, PS and PSD, persue changes in the local election electoral law until March 31. They accuse both parties of creating a problem and it's now time for them to correct the mistake adding that the current law doesn't provide the minimum conditions for Independent movement to run in local elections. If PS and PSD fail to agree on changes, the independent mayors will start the process to create a "Party of the Independents", like Porto mayor Rui Moreira proposed, however they agreed this isn't their goal and they are relatively confident that PS and PSD will change the law. The PS has already proposed some changes (https://www.publico.pt/2021/02/27/politica/noticia/ps-propoes-movimentos-independentes-possam-usar-simbolos-siglas-freguesias-1952406) by easing the collect of signatures and allowing independent movements of using logos in the ballots. The PSD is also open to changes but hasn't, yet, proposed any changes.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 01, 2021, 05:21:47 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspaper and TSF radio:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/liberais-travam-subida-do-chega?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias1)

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (-2.3)
26.5% PSD (-0.1)
  7.7% BE (+0.5)
  6.5% CHEGA (-1.0)
  5.8% CDU (+0.8 )
  5.7% IL (+2.2)
  4.0% PAN (+0.5)
  1.3% Livre (+0.7)
  0.8% CDS (nc)
  4.1% Others/Invalid (-1.4)

Preferred PM:

54% António Costa (+1)
20% Rui Rio (+1)
19% Neither (-3)
  3% Both (+1)
  4% Undecided (nc)

Main opposition figure:

33% Rui Rio (-1)
33% André Ventura (+4)
10% Catarina Martins (-4)
  5% Jerónimo de Sousa (+1)
  2% João Cotrim Figueiredo (new)
17% Undecided (-2)

Government approval rating:

50% Positive (+3)
33% Negative (+2)
15% Average (-4)
  2% Undecided (-1)

President of the Republic approval rating:

68% Positive (+6)
18% Negative (-4)
12% Average (-2)
  2% Undecided (-1)

Oppostion approval rating:

41% Negative (+1)
28% Positive (+3)
25% Average (-1)
  6% Undecided (-3)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 February 2021. Polled 822 voters. MoE of 3.40%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 01, 2021, 03:19:28 PM
2021 local elections: PSD and CDS headquarters in Vila do Conde, Porto, vandalized.


Quote
Portugal - PSD leader Vila do Conde targeted by threats.

During the early hours of Sunday, the headquarters of PSD and CDS in Vila do Conde city, Porto, were vandalized with glass windows shattered and the local PSD leader has also been receiving threats by text messages with some saying "Be carefull!", or "I will be your biggest terror". He added that this is the 2nd time this year that the party headquarters is vandalized. He says he has already reported the incident to the police and says he has no clue who's behind it. However, he raises the coincidence of the threats with the approval of the lists and candidates for the fall local elections.

(Wasn't aware how tense and dramatic things are currently in my hometown "twin" city).


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 02, 2021, 09:39:19 AM
2021 local elections: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa pressured Carlos Moedas to run in Lisbon.


Quote
Marcelo got involved in Moedas candidacy and Rio accelerated.

Renascença radio reports today on the back and forward behind the scenes of the Lisbon PSD candidate pick. For months now, PSD leader Rui Rio was hoping that Carlos Moedas, former secretary under Passos Coelho government and former EU Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation, would accept his invitation to run as candidate. Mr Moedas, however, was undecided as he currently holds a very confortable position on Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation. Plus, President Marcelo was one of the people that Moedas talked to in order to convince him to run. The radio report also says that Marcelo wants a strong "center-right front". While Mr Moedas, was thinking on what to do, the PSD ran a series of candidates and according to the report, former CDS leader, Paulo Portas, internal PSD polling showed Portas defeating incumbent PS mayor Fernando Medina. Mr Portas, however, declined to run.

The report goes on to say that ultimately what made Mr Moedas decide to run was his possible political future, as he wants to see if he has the capacity to be a strong campaigner. But, PSD insiders say that Mr Moedas could want more and that Lisbon city hall could be a "trampoline" to higher options, like the PSD leadership if the PSD performs badly in the fall local elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 02, 2021, 02:39:15 PM
The saga of the new Lisbon airport continues: After the Aviation regulator "rejected" the project, the PSD does a U-turn and is now open to change the law that killed the project.


Quote
Airport: Rui Rio available to help Government remove veto power from municipalities to the airport

In the International discussion forum, in the Portugal's topic, there's the full story. The new Lisbon airport idea, started in 1969, has passed by several locations, but in the last few years it has been concentrated in 2 areas: Montijo or Alcochete, both in the south bank of the Tagus river. A brief recap: for years the most acceptable location was Ota, a small parish in the north bank of the Tagus river and 50 kms away from Lisbon, but the cost would be enormous as the area isn't flat and land movements would be a big problem. This happened during Sócrates PS 1st cabinet (2005-2009), when the then PM was a full "Ota supporter" while the opposition, the PSD, pressed for Alcochete. But Ota became more and more unpopular and even though the government tried to sell the idea, with the then minister of Infrastructures, Mário Lino, famous and hilarious remark: "In the South bank, jamais, jamais!" and that "it was desert" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLKjGaZthCc). Of course, the government abandoned the Ota project and choose Alcochete. But, then the 2008 International crisis began and the project froze. Fast forward to 2015, and Portugal was exiting the crisis, the economy was growing and with a big tourism surge, Lisbon's Portela Airport was becoming too small, the then PSD/CDS government decided to choose Montijo to built the new airport. The new government led by Costa continued the project, but then the PSD changed it's mind, and now said that Alcochete, again, was the best option.

And here we are. Last year, the issue about the current aviation law arose when the government found out that in order to have the project approved, city councils had to give an unanimous approval. Moita city hall refused to approve the project and Environment reports also said that the new airport would clash with the Tagus Estuary Natural Reserve, which is one of Europe's most important wetlands. The government dismissed the report and Moita city hall and pressed ahead with the project and asked the PSD to help them in changing the law, but the party refused as it didn't want to change a law for a specific project. Now, with the "No" from the aviation regulator, the PSD is open to change the law because the government is now open to the idea of Alcochete, even though it was the PSD that brought up Montijo in the first place. This will probably take time as new reports will be done and the government will compared them between Montijo and Alcochete, but the media is already accusing the PSD of doing an amazing flip-flop.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 02, 2021, 03:39:49 PM
More local election polling: Funchal city, again.

Intercampus poll on Funchal city, 110,000 inhabitants, PS Incumbent:  (https://www.jm-madeira.pt/capa/edicao_especial/3910)

Vote share %:
Scenario 1 - Pedro Calado, Madeira's deputy President, as PSD/CDS candidate:

49.1% PSD/CDS
37.9% PS/BE/NC/PDR
  3.4% CHEGA
  2.4% CDU
  2.1% IL
  5.1% Others/Invalid*

Scenario 2 - Eduardo Jesus, Madeira's Tourism secretary, as PSD/CDS candidate:

41.5% PSD/CDS
41.5% PS/BE/NC/PDR
  4.7% CHEGA
  3.6% CDU
  2.2% Independent
  6.5% Others/Invalid*

Scenario 3 - Manuel António Correia, Madeira's former Environment secretary, as PSD/CDS candidate:

42.1% PSD/CDS
41.7% PS/BE/NC/PDR
  4.0% CHEGA
  2.6% IL
  2.6% Independent
  2.2% CDU
  4.8% Others/Invalid*

Poll conducted between 19 and 28 February 2021. Polled 406 voters. MoE of 4.90%

*Listed only candidates above 2%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 04, 2021, 10:16:03 AM
Politico.eu report on Portugal's "ghost" EU presidency:



Quote
COVID-19 may have relegated Portugal to having a “ghost presidency” unlikely to hold flashy summits — but that hasn’t stopped Lisbon from spending as if it was expecting in-person events to be the norm during its six months leading the Council of the EU.

Since taking the reins of the rotating Council presidency in January, Portugal has signed contracts worth hundreds of thousands of euros to acquire equipment, drinks and even clothing for events that are unlikely to be held in person.

The presidency spent €260,591 to equip a press center in Lisbon — even though the presidency’s press briefings are being held online and foreign journalists aren’t traveling to the Portuguese capital. It agreed to pay a wine company €35,785 for drinks — at a time when few people are gathering. And it signed a €39,780 contract to purchase 360 shirts and 180 suits — at a time when many people are working from home.

In addition to the expenditures, watchdog groups have expressed unease at corporate sponsorships the Portuguese presidency has signed with various companies, including some that appear to go against signature EU policies and one that is known as a soft landing pad for Portuguese politicians.

“The presidency seems to be less about work meetings and more about selling Portugal to the outside world,” said Susana Coroado, president of Transparência e Integridade, the Portuguese wing of Transparency International.
(...)

To be fair, sometimes I forget the Portugal presides the EU council right now. The media here makes basically no coverage of this and the government doesn't seem to invested in it also. Now, 180 new suits for chauffeurs is something soo Portuguese that it doesn't surprise me. 8)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 04, 2021, 08:19:14 PM
President Marcelo had lunch with PM Costa in the official residence of the PM and presided the Council of Ministers meeting to mark the end of his 1st term:


Quote
A bonsai for Marcelo: Costa wants "strategic cooperation" for forest reform

To mark the end of his 1st term, and the beginning of his second one, President Marcelo paid a visit to the PM's official residence and had lunch with António Costa. The President also presided the Council of Ministers meeting held later on the day. The main focus of the meeting was forest reform and both agreed that a big reform of forest management is needed in Portugal. PM Costa said that, on his part, Marcelo can count with a full "strategic cooperation" from the government to persue the reform process in forests. In a sign of "cooperation" Costa offered Marcelo a bonsai.

Today was also the official presentation of the PSD candidate for Lisbon Mayor, Carlos Moedas. (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/carlos-moedas-e-a-candidatura-a-lisboa-foi-uma-decisao-de-vida-refletida-e-pensada-mas-tambem-confesso-querida-e-desejada) Mr Moedas presented officially his candidacy in the Superior Technical Institute of Lisbon, where Moedas got his degree in engineering. The presentation was without any party leaders and was only Moedas and the media. He has already released his first online ad:

Quote
"My name is Carlos Moedas. I am counting on you to demand more, to aspire more and so, together, we can go further. For Lisbon and for the Lisboners".

New times for Lisbon.
# Carlosmoedas21 # autarquicas2021 @Moedas

With the slogan, "New times for Lisbon", Moedas said his decision to run for Lisbon mayor is his life's major decision. He went on to say he wants to lead a major candidacy to unite all the non-socialists, moderate and progressive forces in order to defeat the 14 year rule of the PS in the city. He adds that the times ahead will force a major "reconstruction" of Lisbon in terms of economics, social, culture and environment and that he's ready to face that challenge. He is expected to lead a very broad front with the already six parties supporting him: PSD-CDS-Alliance-RIR-MPT-PPM. Moedas is also in negotiations with the Liberal Initiative (IL) and the party will make a decision in the next few days.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 06, 2021, 07:50:27 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

39.5% PS (+0.2)
28.2% PSD (+1.0)
  7.5% CHEGA (+0.2)
  7.0% BE (+0.1)
  4.5% CDU (-0.3)
  2.5% PAN (+0.5)
  2.2% CDS (-0.3)   
  2.1% IL (-0.9)
  6.5% Others/Invalid (-0.5)

Poll conducted between 1 and 4 March 2021. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 06, 2021, 12:04:00 PM
PCP celebrates 100 years as a party, with some controversy, and IL refuses a coalition with PSD in Lisbon:

The Communist Party is celebrating, today, their 100th anniversary. The party, founded in 1921, did a rally in downtown Lisbon today to mark the occasion. However, during the last few days some of the party's actions to celebrate their 100th anniversary created some controversy. The main roads and squares of the big cities were flooded with flags of the PCP. Places like the Aliados Avenue in Porto or Restoration Square in Lisbon had several PCP flags. In the North, the mayor of Gondomar, Marco Martins (PS), was outraged by the PCP flags in one of Gondomar's avenues:


Quote
Unqualified, come to destroy what we work to beautify!
Shielded by 'political rights', it cannot be worth everything.
We ask for GOOD SENSE and respect for the public space!
A party that thinks it can do anything, visually pollutes our Avenues.
If it was my party, I would also criticize!
Unfortunately, the legislation protects these behaviors and the City hall can do nothing 🙁
Fortunately, Gondomarians know that Gondomar IS NOT Korea!

In a furious rant on social media, the mayor of Gondomar accused the Communists of "visually polluting" the avenues of Gondomar and highlighted that Gondomar isn't North Korea. Nonetheless, President Marcelo and PM Costa have congratulated the PCP for their 100th anniversary. The media is also focusing on the decline the party is having, the poll above has the PCP-PEV coalition at just 4.5%, and that the party has a huge problem with young voters, women and non-unionized workers (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/mulheres-jovens-e-nao-sindicalizados-eis-o-desafio-do-pcp-para-os-proximos-100-anos), as unionized workers are dropping to record low levels.

In the Lisbon mayoral race, the Liberal Initiative (IL) has refused a coalition with the PSD candidate and presented their own:


Quote
IL denies the great coalition of Moedas. Miguel Quintas is the liberal candidate

The PSD candidate for Lisbon mayor, Carlos Moedas, was negotiating with IL to be part of his grand coalition against Medina. But the party was always wary of a coalition due to the uncomfortable relation between them and the PSD, not to mention that the party wanted to pulse their actual strength in Lisbon city. So, the party announced, today, that they would present their own candidate and it will be Miguel Quintas. A complete unknown, Mr Quintas works in the tourism sector. His number 2 on the list, in a woman who was Madonna's lawyer while she was in Portugal. Carlos Moedas already reacted to this announcement by IL saying that for him nothing changed and that he's receiving more and more support each day. On the left, Medina will probably run alone as none of the left parties, BE, CDU and PAN, want to form a coalition.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 06, 2021, 03:24:19 PM
CHEGA leadership election: Ventura reelected with 97.3% of the votes.


Quote
André Ventura reelected leader of Chega with 97.3% of the votes

Around 25,000 CHEGA members were registered to vote, today, and of those that did cast a ballot, the party didn't release turnout or full tally numbers, Ventura got 97.3%, a result lower than the one he got last year, in September 2020, 99%. Ventura was the sole candidate in the ballot. Ventura, in his victory speech, said his internal opposition doesn't have any strength and that the result was proof of it. He added that he wants to be in government and trashed the PSD for their weak opposition saying Costa is close to a majority. 400 delegates were also elected for the party's convention to be held after the end of the lockdown in a date still to be announced.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 07, 2021, 09:58:45 AM
CHEGA leadership election: Ventura reelected with 97.3% of the votes.



Quote
André Ventura reelected leader of Chega with 97.3% of the votes

Around 25,000 CHEGA members were registered to vote, today, and of those that did cast a ballot, the party didn't release turnout or full tally numbers, Ventura got 97.3%, a result lower than the one he got last year, in September 2020, 99%. Ventura was the sole candidate in the ballot. Ventura, in his victory speech, said his internal opposition doesn't have any strength and that the result was proof of it. He added that he wants to be in government and trashed the PSD for their weak opposition saying Costa is close to a majority. 400 delegates were also elected for the party's convention to be held after the end of the lockdown in a date still to be announced.

Wow. His re-election is one of the least surprising things ever, but I find it interesting that literally no one else filed a candidacy. When, as I already mentioned in this thread as a term of comparison, Renzi pulled this kind of trick here in 2017, at least he had some fairly serious opposition on the ballot. Just a confirmation if any was needed that CHEGA may as well be called the André Ventura Party, I suppose.

I am also not sure how much I should trust that result when the party did not release the tally in absolute numbers, but that's a separate question.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 07, 2021, 11:29:23 AM
Wow. His re-election is one of the least surprising things ever, but I find it interesting that literally no one else filed a candidacy. When, as I already mentioned in this thread as a term of comparison, Renzi pulled this kind of trick here in 2017, at least he had some fairly serious opposition on the ballot. Just a confirmation if any was needed that CHEGA may as well be called the André Ventura Party, I suppose.

I am also not sure how much I should trust that result when the party did not release the tally in absolute numbers, but that's a separate question.

That's a forgone conclusion for a while now. Ventura is CHEGA and CHEGA is Ventura, period. There's no one else other than him and the rest is just a bunch of "kooks", literally. So, he can't have any real opposition as no figure within the party has the strength to challenge him. In an interview to SIC TV, Ventura said his goal is to gain votes in the center ground (https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2021-03-06-Andre-Ventura-reeleito-presidente-do-Chega-com-973-dos-votos) and remove the PSD as the main party on the right, adding that Rio acts more as Prime Minister than Leader of the Opposition and doesn't propose an alternative to the PS.

About the results, curiously, parties in Portugal have the very annoying habit of not publishing the full results of their leadership elections. The PSD set up a website, in 2020, to follow the live results. The PS also did one site to follow their Prime Ministerial primary results in 2014. But, the rest of the parties publish results in a very vague way, so CHEGA is just following the trend.

In a funny side, CHEGA is also known for their hilarious graphics about polling as their exaggerate the CHEGA columns to ridiculous sizes. An example, using yesterday's Eurosondagem poll:


8) 8)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 07, 2021, 11:48:00 AM
In a funny side, CHEGA is also known for their hilarious graphics about polling as their exaggerate the CHEGA columns to ridiculous sizes. An example, using yesterday's Eurosondagem poll:

8) 8)

I just...

This graphic advertising is so blatantly misleading, not to say fraudulent, that I don't really know how to comment on it otherwise. Par for the course for CHEGA, yes?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 07, 2021, 12:04:49 PM
I just...

This graphic advertising is so blatantly misleading, not to say fraudulent, that I don't really know how to comment on it otherwise. Par for the course for CHEGA, yes?

Of course this is something one would expect from CHEGA, and they regularly do this and are fiercely mocked. Curiously, the PS a few weeks ago, also posted, on social media, a "CHEGA style graphic" to show Portugal's vaccination performance and to respond to the PSD, but that went horribly wrong and the party was forced to delete the post and graphic.  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/02/05/sociedade/noticia/vacinas-graficos-ps-cronica-propaganda-visual-1949517)

In a side note, the latest polling hasn't been that good for CHEGA. The party in two other polls fell considerably, it seems at the cost of the Liberal Initiative. Eurosondagem shows CHEGA basically stagnated, while PSD gains from the IL fall, but Eurosondagem has normally a tendency of overestimating the 2 major parties. Plus, the media is hyping a lot "the Moedas effect", but it's unclear if it will benefit the PSD in national polls.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 09, 2021, 07:27:26 AM
President Marcelo sworn in for his 2nd term:


Quote
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa took an oath on the Constitution.

Today, March 9th, is the swearing in day of the President of the Republic in Parliament. President Marcelo, after winning the January elections with 60.7% of the votes, was sworn in for his 2nd term as President. In his speech, Marcelo said the only reason for his solemn compromise he did by taking the oath is just Portugal and the Portuguese. He recalled the deep division the country was in when he became President in 2016 and the he helped in healing the divisions, but said that the last year was a crushing one for us all and said that those affected may be outraged, but it's "partially unfair" to criticize those who didn't anticipate the events. He added that mistakes were made but that, sometimes, better and more was not possible. He defended a democracy within republican ethics and that democracy cannot exclude people that could be sacrificed because of the myth of the "Pure Portuguese" (a clear jab towards CHEGA). President Marcelo also pressed for more actions to fight poverty and said he will be the same as he was in his 1st term. He ended his speech by hoping that the next five years will be years of reason and hope and recited a poem of one Portugal's renown poetess, Sophia de Mello Breyner. President Marcelo then went to Jerónimos Monastery to place wreaths of flowers in the Tombs of Vasco da Gama and Luís de Camões.

In reaction to President Marcelo's speech, PM Costa said he will continue the "solidarity and cooperation" with the President, while the PS said they agree with the President's speech that democracy and the cohesion of the country should be strengthened. The PSD highlithed the "social dimension" of the President's speech and said they are building an "unique alternative" led by Rui Rio. BE liked the speech as it pointed to more investment in social programs, while CDU said they don't want "stability just for the sake of stability" and demand strong policies. CDS applauded the speech and want a more "central" President. PAN said that the President talked little of climate change and was vague on corruption and youth problems. CHEGA accused Marcelo of attacking them on his speech, calling the President's speech "empty". IL said that it was a good and correct speech, but have doubts that Marcelo will be more tough on PM Costa is this second term.

Full ceremony:



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 09, 2021, 02:58:16 PM
2021 local elections: IL candidate for Lisbon mayor, Miguel Quintas, involved in a controversy as it was revealed he defended the nationalization of TAP airlines, a idea completely rejected/hated by the party.


Quote
IL candidate to Lisbon admitted that nationalization of TAP could be an "excellent option".

After the Liberal Initiative announced their candidate for the Lisbon mayoral race, Miguel Quintas, an opinion piece, in April 2020, he wrote in a Tourism related magazine surfaced, but it was deleted. However, using recovery tools on the internet, the media was able to recover the full opinion text. In his opinion piece, Mr Quintas said that "nationalizing TAP would not be unreasonable" and "everything indicates that it may be an excellent option for the national purpose that the company has". This goes against everything the party defends, as IL is totally against the nationalization or State support for TAP airlines. But, a few months later, Mr Quintas was caught flip-flopping in this issue. In a debate on SIC-Notícias, Mr Quintas criticized the State support for TAP saying that the company only represents 2% of GDP and that the rest 98% are being left out with few support. The video was posted by IL in their social media pages with the title "Miguel Quintas exposes the socialist TAPalhadas".

Mr Quintas responded to the controversy by saying the title of his article didn't expressed his full beliefs (https://observador.pt/2021/03/09/candidato-liberal-a-lisboa-justifica-declaracao-sobre-nacionalizacao-da-tap-e-um-titulo-nao-demonstra-a-plenitude-da-minha-visao/), and that the current situation is different from when he wrote the opinion piece. IL is also being accused by some in the PSD of playing the PS game by not supporting the PSD candidate, Carlos Moedas. However, some newspapers say that only Moedas asked IL to join his campaign and that the IL leader was waiting for a call from Rui Rio that never arrived.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 09, 2021, 06:13:17 PM
2021 local elections: IL candidate for Lisbon mayor, Miguel Quintas, involved in a controversy as it was revealed he defended the nationalization of TAP airlines, a idea completely rejected/hated by the party.

The IL candidate has just dropped out from the race, after just 3 days in it:

Quote
Local elections: Miguel Quintas, of the Liberal Initiative, gives up his candidacy to Lisbon

It seems he dropped out because of "personal reasons". The party is now debating who will head the list for Lisbon as they wish to present their own candidacy for the capital.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 10, 2021, 01:19:51 PM
Wow. His re-election is one of the least surprising things ever, but I find it interesting that literally no one else filed a candidacy. When, as I already mentioned in this thread as a term of comparison, Renzi pulled this kind of trick here in 2017, at least he had some fairly serious opposition on the ballot. Just a confirmation if any was needed that CHEGA may as well be called the André Ventura Party, I suppose.

I am also not sure how much I should trust that result when the party did not release the tally in absolute numbers, but that's a separate question.

After some media outlets investigated that the results were managed by a mystery private company (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/o-estranho-caso-dos-resultados-das-eleicoes-no-chega-13436924.html) and that even the party didn't knew the detail tally of results, the party released, today, the official tally of results:

Quote
Ventura was re-elected leader of Chega with the vote of only 11.5% of members

The official tally: (only 14,979 of the 27,926 party members were in conditions to vote)

3,226 Ventura (97.3%)
     73 Blank ballots (2.2%)
     18 Invalid ballots (0.5%)

3,317 Turnout (22.1%)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 11, 2021, 02:33:51 PM
Independent MP Joacine Katar Moreira creates controversy after posting, on social media, a picture of the Padrão dos Descobrimentos being launch to space:  (https://zap.aeiou.pt/joacine-imagem-padrao-descobrimentos-386735)

The controversial post:

Quote
Good Morning

Independent MP Joacine Katar Moreira (JKM) is back in the news. After in the last few weeks, some MPs and others people discussed the possibility that many monuments in Portugal, that remind Portugal's Imperial, should be removed or destroyed, Ms Joacine posted on social media, a picture of the Padrão dos Descobrimentos being launch to space. However, the majority of the comments in her post was very critical towards her, with many accusing her of disrespecting Portugal's past. Other also mocked her post by saying that if Portugal conquers Space as it did in the discovery era, Portugal will have a very strong future.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 11, 2021, 06:55:41 PM
Update on the 2021 local elections:

- In Braga, there's tensions between the national PS and the local PS on the candidate to face incumbent PSD mayor, Ricardo Rio. The PS national leadership chose Hugo Pires as candidate, but the local party says the process isn't over yet (https://observador.pt/2021/03/11/autarquicas-concelhia-diz-que-ainda-nao-ha-decisao-sobre-nome-indicado-pelo-ps-para-candidato-a-braga/), as there is a personal feud between Mr Pires and the PS local leader, Artur Feio. A PS internal poll, shows the party losing to the PSD by a wide margin.

- PSD leader Rui Rio will make a press conference tomorrow in Coimbra city to announce local candidates in that district. It's expected that he will announce José Manuel Silva as the candidate for the party in Coimbra. (https://www.asbeiras.pt/2021/03/rui-rio-apresenta-mais-candidatos-autarquicos-em-coimbra/) The PSD was negotiating a deal with the Independents to defeat incumbent PS mayor, Manuel Machado.

- In Albufeira, Algarve, there will be a split in the PSD. The incumbent PSD mayor, José Carlos Rolo, will face the PS candidate and the former PSD mayor of Albufeira, between 2001 and 2012, Desidério Silva. (https://observador.pt/2021/03/10/autarquicas-desiderio-silva-quer-reconquistar-albufeira-como-independente/) Mr Desidério Silva will run as an Independent. This run splits the PSD vote and could make Albufeira a PS pick up.

- Just next door, in Lagoa city, there's also a split but here in the PS. The incumbent PS mayor, Luís Encarnação, will face the PSD candidate and his predecessor in the office, Francisco Martins (https://postal.pt/politica/2021-03-11-Autarquicas-Francisco-Martins-confirma-o-seu-regresso-a-Lagoa). Mr Martins, elected in 2013 in the PS lists, resigned due to health issues in 2019, but will now run as an Independent thus splitting the PS vote.

- In São João da Madeira, CDS will probably lead the coalition with the PSD. (https://oregional.pt/2021/03/11/joao-almeida-na-linha-da-frente-para-liderar-coligacao-a-camara-municipal/) The candidate proposed is João Almeida, former CDS MP and defeated leadership candidate in 2020. The PSD has still to approve this candidacy and proposed coalition led by CDS. The current PS mayor will probably run for a 2nd term.

- The PSD is having difficulty in finding women candidates to lead their lists in many cities. Rui Rio said this is a PSD women forum and this created some discomfort in the party's women base. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/08/politica/noticia/coordenadora-mulheres-psd-procura-candidatas-autarquicas-atraves-whatsapp-1953470) This issue arose a few weeks ago when the party only had 3 women candidates in more than 100 candidates announced.

More updates when available.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 12, 2021, 06:12:19 AM
Media reports tensions between President Marcelo and PM Costa regarding the lockdown end plan:


Quote
Marcelo leaves Costa to talk to alone about lockdown end

The President and the Prime Minister seem to be in collision course regarding the lockdown and the ease of restrictions. President Marcelo doesn't want the lift of restriction before Easter and, in his 2nd term speech, Marcelo asked for "a wise plan". But, the President isn't giving any cover to the PM on the plan presented last night. The media even reports that Marcelo had a dinner with Costa, last Wednesday, to convince him to not open the country until April. But, Marcelo failed to convince Costa and the plan presented by the PM, starts reopening the country by next week. The mood between both is tense at the point that the President didn't knew even, as of yesterday afternoon, the details of the plan. President Marcelo left yesterday to the Vatican, to have a meeting with the Pope, another sign, pointed by the media, that Marcelo doesn't want any relation with the plan presented by Costa.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 12, 2021, 10:35:53 AM
More CHEGA infighting in the Azores: Ventura threatens to remove his confidence in one of its regional MPs, but the PSD led government isn't in danger as PAN is willing to support it.


Quote
If CHEGA makes the Azores government tremble, PAN will secure it.

Earlier this week, a report surfaced that Ventura was going again to the Azores, the second time in almost a month, to confront his regional MPs about internal disagreements surrounding the social support income (RSI). CHEGA wants to reduce the number of beneficiaries and one of their MPs posted on social media that the party was against the rise in beneficiaries, adding that just this year alone, more 200 were enrolled. The leader of CHEGA Azores, Carlos Furtado, criticized the post saying "criticizing doesn't solve the problem" and demanded that the post should be deleted, as it was. But Ventura seems to be furious at Mr Furtado and, according to Expresso and Observador newspapers, he's considering removing his confidence in Mr Furtado. However, both regional MPs received the report with surprise and say it's total nonsense.

But, if indeed Mr Furtado becomes an Independent MP, PAN has already said they are willing to support the PSD led coalition, adding that the current government has all the conditions to continue in office. All of this happens as the PSD led coalition presented their first budget that focuses on tax and tariff cuts. (https://jornalacores9.pt/plano-e-orcamento-do-executivo-acoriano-sao-para-um-tempo-excecional-diz-presidente-do-governo/)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 14, 2021, 01:38:21 PM
André Silva, PAN leader, announces he will leave the leadership and his seat in Parliament by June:


Quote
Political parties: André Silva leaves leadership of PAN and Parliament in June: “People should not be immortalized in their positions”

André Silva, PAN leader/spokesperson, has announced he will not run again for the party's top job and will also resign from his seat in Parliament by June this year. In an email sent to party members, and leaked by Público newspaper, says he leaves the leadership and his seat in order to "catch the train of fatherhood" and to balance his family and work life. He also adds that "people should not be immortalized in office." After Público published the email, André Silva posted on social media the online letter he sent to PAN members. André Silva is leader of the party since 2014 and was able to make the party win seats in Parliament in the 2015 and 2019 general elections. A party congress on 5 and 6 June 2021 will elect his successor.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 14, 2021, 02:13:38 PM
I am not surprised that the CHEGA Azores drama is still ongoing (nor that CHEGA wants to cut access social support benefits - very "populist" indeed), but why would PAN offer its support to the PSD government? I thought it was considered a left-leaning party?

Speaking of PAN, I have a little hunch that André Silva's announcement is not entirely a coincidence, but maybe I am overthinking this.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 14, 2021, 02:37:08 PM
I am not surprised that the CHEGA Azores drama is still ongoing (nor that CHEGA wants to cut access social support benefits - very "populist" indeed), but why would PAN offer its support to the PSD government? I thought it was considered a left-leaning party?

Speaking of PAN, I have a little hunch that André Silva's announcement is not entirely a coincidence, but maybe I am overthinking this.

PAN is indeed a center-left party, but they have always said that there are willing to support either PS or PSD governments if their policies are integrated in the government's agenda. In the Azores that's exactly what happened. After last year regional elections, the PSD has been "seducing" PAN (as the PSD doesn't trust CHEGA and wants some kind of "safety card" if CHEGA goes crazy) and during the 2021 budget negotiations, PAN and PSD had meetings to negotiate budget policies, environmental ones I believe.

About André Silva's decision, well, the party has a lot of internal infighting and last year, they even lost their MEP because of tensions between the MEP and André Silva. During that time, PAN also lost one MP that became an Independent. They accuse Silva of being controlling and dictatorial in leading the party and this has always, more often than not, created very public clashes within the party. So, André Silva's departure from the leadership is both a surprise but also a bit expected. About who would be the next leader, my hunch is that it will be Inês Sousa Real, currently the party's caucus leader.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 14, 2021, 06:55:13 PM
Crisis in CHEGA-Azores: Regional leader resigns and will face his regional MP colleague in a snap leadership election.


Quote
Chega / Açores leader resigns after split in regional structure.

The ongoing crisis in the CHEGA-Azores party reached a climax this Sunday. The current feud between the regional leader and regional MP and his MP colleague about the social income support (RSI) wasn't resolved, even with Ventura in the Azores. The two will now face each other in a snap leadership election. It's clear that Carlos Furtado, the current leader, is a more moderate member while his party colleague, José Pacheco, is more radical and far-right. Party insiders say that both men present different projects within the party and that if Mr Pacheco loses, the party's support for the PSD led coalition "won't be so incisive". A date for the election is yet to be announced.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 15, 2021, 07:48:42 AM
Political update:

More updates for the 2021 local elections:

- CHEGA has announced their candidate for Lisbon mayor, and it's a surprise candidate. The party chose former TV host Nuno Graciano as candidate. Mr Graciano hosted a lot of morning/talk shows on SIC, TVI and more recently on CMTV. He's been out of TV for a while, but a few years ago, made headlines for a podcast interview where he said that parents who beat up their children should get life in prison (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/autarquicas-nuno-graciano-e-o-cabeca-de-lista-do-chega-em-lisboa) and those "who sodomize their children" should get, at minimum, death sentence;

- The PS is starting to announce more and more candidates. The Socialists are the party most affected by term limits in this election, but, so far they have announced the reelection campaigns of many of their current mayors, like in Loulé, Lisbon, Coimbra. The most controversial nomination so far is the approval of the reelection campaign of Pedrogão Grande mayor, Valdemar Alves. (https://observador.pt/2021/03/09/autarquicas-concelhia-do-ps-aprova-recandidatura-de-valdemar-alves-a-pedrogao-grande/) Mr Alves is accused of corruption in the management of the reconstruction funds after the deadly 2017 wildfires;

- In Barcelos city, there's tension in both PSD and PS, but more in the PSD. The current PS mayor, Miguel Costa Gomes, is accused of corruption and is also term limited, so the party has to present a new candidate but there is tensions on who should they present. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/02/22/politica/noticia/barcelos-socialistas-temem-efeito-chega-autarquicas-1951322) But in the PSD, things aren't better. The party is finding it hard to present a candidate and the current local leader resigned after his name was rejected;  (https://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/braga/barcelos/demitiu-se-o-lider-do-psd-barcelos-13434218.html)

- Also in the PSD, the name of Santana Lopes continues to pop up regarding possible cities for him to run. First it was Lisbon, then Sintra, then Coimbra and the Figueira da Foz, all rejected by local and national party structures. But, today, DN newspaper says that Santana also rejected a proposal to be the PSD candidate in Torres Vedras (https://www.dn.pt/edicao-do-dia/15-mar-2021/nove-combates-autarquicos-santana-na-calha-para-liderar-lista-do-psd-em-torres-vedras-13456809.html), a PS bastion since 1976;

In the national scene, a poll by Intercampus released today, in CM newspaper and CMTV, shows that 56% of the electorate want Costa to reshuffle his cabinet. The Interior minister and Justice minister are the most unpopular in the eyes of the electorate and should be ousted according to the poll. The Health minister, Marta Temido, also has 20% of the electorate that want her out:

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-03-15-Sondagem.-Mais-de-metade-dos-portugueses-querem-remodelacao-no-Governo)

Q1: Do you think António Costa should reshuffle his cabinet?

56.4% Yes
30.7% No
12.8% Undecided

Q2: When do you think he should do that?

42.4% Before the summer
38.0% After the local elections
15.0% Now
  4.6% Undecided

Q3: Which ministers should be ousted? (multiple choice and top 6)

35.2% Eduardo Cabrita (Interior)
28.8% Francisca Van Dunem (Justice)
24.8% Tiago Brandão Rodrigues (Education)
21.9% Graça Fonseca (Culture)
20.2% Marta Temido (Health)
13.5% Pedro Nuno Santos (Infrastructure)

Poll conducted between 4 and 10 March 2021. Polled 615 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 15, 2021, 01:17:16 PM
Constitutional Court rules the euthanasia bill as unconstitutional. The bill now goes back to Parliament.


Quote
Constitutional Court rejects medically assisted death law  

The Constitutional Court has declared that the Euthanasia legalization bill is unconstitutional as it violates the "inviolability of human life" inscribed in the Constitution. The bill was sent to the Court by President Marcelo as he had doubts about the constitutionality of the law. Of the 12 judges out of 13, one seat is vacant, 7 judges voted against the bill and 5 in favour. Of the 7 judges that voted against the bill, 3 were nominated by the PSD, 3 by the PS and one by CDS. The 5 judges that voted in favour were all from the PS bar one, from the PSD. The bill will now return to Parliament to be redrawn.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Farmlands on March 15, 2021, 03:57:42 PM
Well, that's a pretty clear statement... Not really what I hoped for though. Doesn't seem like it will ever be able to go past Marcelo, no matter what the parliament does, right? Maybe the national referendum on euthanasia really is the only way forward.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 15, 2021, 04:05:45 PM
Well, that's a pretty clear statement... Not really what I hoped for though. Doesn't seem like it will ever be able to go past Marcelo, no matter what the parliament does, right? Maybe the national referendum on euthanasia really is the only way forward.

Even though the Court ruled the proposed bill as unconstitutional, they opened the door to a future approval. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/15/politica/noticia/tribunal-constitucional-declara-eutanasia-inconstitucional-inviolabilidade-vida-humana-1954465) The current bill in fact violates the "inviolability of human life" in the Constitution, however, the Judge President João Caupers, who voted against the bill, also wrote in the ruling: "The right to life cannot be transformed into a duty to live under any circumstances." Meaning that the Court says that Parliament can make a bill that corrects the issues raised by the Court. Now, if Parliament can make that kind of bill is a whole other question.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2021, 05:42:26 PM
Well, that's a pretty clear statement... Not really what I hoped for though. Doesn't seem like it will ever be able to go past Marcelo, no matter what the parliament does, right? Maybe the national referendum on euthanasia really is the only way forward.

Even though the Court ruled the proposed bill as unconstitutional, they opened the door to a future approval. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/15/politica/noticia/tribunal-constitucional-declara-eutanasia-inconstitucional-inviolabilidade-vida-humana-1954465) The current bill in fact violates the "inviolability of human life" in the Constitution, however, the Judge President João Caupers, who voted against the bill, also wrote in the ruling: "The right to life cannot be transformed into a duty to live under any circumstances." Meaning that the Court says that Parliament can make a bill that corrects the issues raised by the Court. Now, if Parliament can make that kind of bill is a whole other question.

Any way for the government to add more judges/fire the ones who care more than their Catholic faith than doing their jobs?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 15, 2021, 06:07:49 PM
Well, that's a pretty clear statement... Not really what I hoped for though. Doesn't seem like it will ever be able to go past Marcelo, no matter what the parliament does, right? Maybe the national referendum on euthanasia really is the only way forward.

Even though the Court ruled the proposed bill as unconstitutional, they opened the door to a future approval. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/15/politica/noticia/tribunal-constitucional-declara-eutanasia-inconstitucional-inviolabilidade-vida-humana-1954465) The current bill in fact violates the "inviolability of human life" in the Constitution, however, the Judge President João Caupers, who voted against the bill, also wrote in the ruling: "The right to life cannot be transformed into a duty to live under any circumstances." Meaning that the Court says that Parliament can make a bill that corrects the issues raised by the Court. Now, if Parliament can make that kind of bill is a whole other question.

Any way for the government to add more judges/fire the ones who care more than their Catholic faith than doing their jobs?

Nope. The government cannot fire judges, because of the separation of powers, nor can they pick specific judges to advance any kind of agenda as every judge needs a 2/3 majority to be elected in Parliament. Plus, there's a "gentleman's agreement" between PS and PSD, in which judges picks alternate between the parties, as in the PS chooses one, so the next one will be a PSD pick, and so on. But, sometimes the "agreement" fails, as it did this week when the PSD pick to fill the vacant Court seat failed to reach the 2/3 majority. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/11/politica/noticia/jose-figueiredo-dias-falha-ar-eleicao-tribunal-constitucional-1954065)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 16, 2021, 10:36:46 AM
Euthanasia bill: Just 4 judges clearly say the bill violates the Constitution, the rest of the judges believe an adaptable bill can pass in the Court.


Quote
Only four (of the 12) TC judges defend that euthanasia violates the Constitution

The Euthanasia vote in the Court was 7 against to 5 in favour, but of the 7 judges who voted against, just 4 judges clearly say that Euthanasia violates the Constitution. The other 3 judges, defend that it doesn't collide with the Constitution and a new bill can resolve the issue and pass in the Court. This seems in line with the ruling signed by the Judge President of the Court. Parties are already reacting to the Court's decision (https://observador.pt/2021/03/15/reacoes-ao-chumbo-da-eutanasia-ps-promete-trilhar-numa-nova-redacao-da-lei/): PS says they respect the Court's decision and will present changes in the bill. BE and PAN also say they are ready to make changes in the bill and applaud the hints the Court gave in order for the bill to pass the next time. PCP, on the other hand, says it will be very difficult to find a solution. On the right, the PSD says the Court's decision is a "positive and balanced" one, and that they are willing to present changes. IL says the Court's decision shows that there is space in the Constitution to frame Euthanasia. CDS and CHEGA celebrate the Court's "NO" vote and say that the Euthanasia debate is over.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 16, 2021, 06:57:53 PM
PSD leader Rui Rio refuses to support a referendum on Euthanasia as the PSD and CDS sign a deal to run in coalitions in the local elections:


Quote
PSD and CDS signed a coalition agreement.

The PSD and CDS signed, this afternoon, a deal to run in coalitions for the fall local elections. The deal is almost identical to the one signed in 2017 between both parties. Both leaders hailed the coalition agreement saying it will be an important milestone in the confirmation of a mobilizing alternative against the left. The number of coalitions are still to be announced, but it will most likely be well above 100, again a similar number compared with 2017. Both leaders believe the elections will be a turning point for the country and that both parties will weaken the PS in the fall elections. PSD leader Rui Rio acknowledges, however, that it very difficult to overcome the PS in terms of cities, because of the huge gap between PS and PSD. Asked about polling that shows the right bloc at around 40% and still bellow the Left as a whole, both leaders say polling isn't important with Rio adding that if it was for polling, he would never have been elected mayor of Porto.

Asked about the Euthanasia bill rejection by the Court, Rio says he didn't changed his mind and that he's still in favour of the legalization of Euthanasia (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-03-16-Posso-ficar-sozinho-mas-nao-mudo.-Rui-Rio-recusa-referendo-a-eutanasia-d2458602). He also said he is against calling a referendum on the matter, even though some sectors of the PSD strongly defend that idea.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 17, 2021, 06:07:58 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-03-17-Sondagem.-PSD-volta-a-cair-e-Chega-ultrapassa-Bloco-bcaaa746)

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (nc)
23.6% PSD (-1.1)
   9.0% CHEGA (+1.7)
   8.3% BE (+0.1)
   5.5% CDU (-0.3)
   5.3% IL (-0.3)
   2.5% PAN (-0.6)
   2.3% CDS (-0.4)
   0.7% Livre (nc)
   0.9% Others (+0.2)
  4.2% Invalid/Blank (+0.6)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.3 António Costa (+0.2)
2.9 Rui Rio (nc)
2.8 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.8 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.7 André Silva (+0.1)
2.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.2)
2.4 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.1)
1.9 André Ventura (nc)

Poll conducted between 4 and 10 March 2021. Polled 615 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 17, 2021, 07:02:00 AM
Good. I had not realized there was a vacancy in the Constitutional Court, by the way.
Are the 'sectors' of PSD calling for a referendum those for or against euthanasia? Is anyone else proposing a referendum?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 17, 2021, 07:18:32 AM
Good. I had not realized there was a vacancy in the Constitutional Court, by the way.
Are the 'sectors' of PSD calling for a referendum those for or against euthanasia? Is anyone else proposing a referendum?

They are mostly against Euthanasia and that's why they support the idea of a referendum, because with the current numbers in Parliament, Euthanasia passes. The PSD is literally 50-50 on the issue, although the PSD caucus is much more against euthanasia than the party's voter base, according to polling. Paulo Rangel, PSD MEP, wrote an opinion piece, yesterday, pressing on the idea of a referendum. Many other PSD members also defend a referendum, for actual moral reasons, but others also defend a referendum more in a way to attack Rio's leadership.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 17, 2021, 09:56:00 AM
Succession in PAN: Party founders attack the "presumptive" successor of André Silva and demand an end to the "clowning" of the party.


Quote
André Silva leaves, but he is not the only one. Founders want "radical change" and an end to "clowning"

PAN is living through a complicated moment with the departure of André Silva as leader. Observador newspaper reports that within that party, many the know Silva very well were surprised by his departure reasons, and some also say that there is an unnecessary great amount of protagonism from Silva's wing of the party. There seems to a be a big regional split in the party and the source of the current internal disputes seems to come from the so-called "Northern wing". PAN was formed in the North of Portugal and many members refuse things like the party's headquarters in Lisbon. Members of this wing, the wing from the party's founders, say the party has become a "joke". The newspaper also reports the the members of the "Northern wing" are trying to retake control of the party by signing new members in order to win a majority in the party's national council. Inês Sousa Real, the presumptive successor of André Silva, is considering a run for the leadership but she is attacked by the "Northern wing" and the wing is considering presenting someone to run against Sousa Real.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 17, 2021, 06:40:40 PM
Police raids the offices of the Madeira regional government. Miguel Albuquerque, President of Madeira, is a suspect:


Quote
Regional Government of Madeira targeted for searches.

The Police raided, this afternoon, the offices of the Madeira regional government looking for evidences and documents surrounding the Madeira Free Trade Zone concession to Pestana business group. The President of the Regional Government of Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque (PSD), is one of the main suspects. The details of the raid are still few but the DA office says that the point of the investigation is to find out if there's crimes of corruption and prevarication in the direct negotiation by the Madeira government for the concession/exploration of the Madeira Free Trade Zone. The regional government has already confirmed the police raid and asked for a very kick investigation on these matters and that the truth be revealed. The statement by the regional government also says that these allegations are being brought up by anonymous reports that constitute low political shots.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 18, 2021, 10:31:59 AM
PSD proposes bill that would mandate politicians to declare every single association they belong to:


Quote
PSD wants to compel politicians to declare which associations they belong to. PS rejects

PSD, alongside PAN, is proposing a bill that will mandate all public officials, mainly politicians, of declaring every single association they belong to. The original bill, presented by PAN, wanted politicians to voluntary declare which associations they belong to. The PSD supports the PAN bill, but added that it should be mandatory for all politicians, insted of voluntary. PSD, BE, CDS, PAN support the bill, although BE wants the bill to be more "mature". PS is totally against the bill saying that PSD is trying to persecute people and that the Social Democrats real intention is to find out which politicians are part of the Freemasonry and Opus Dei. The PSD responds to the PS criticisms by saying this will strengthen transparency and added that being a Mason or an Opus Dei member isn't malefic. PCP has some doubts about the bill.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 19, 2021, 11:50:30 AM
2021 local elections: Interior minister suggests voting in two separate weekends.


Quote
Government admits local elections on two weekends

The Interior minister, Eduardo Cabrita, suggested that the 2021 local elections could be held in two separate weekends because of the pandemic. Mr Cabrita said that there will not be early voting in these elections and that other voting models can be suggested. Mr Cabrita also said that postponing the elections is a bad idea and that elections should be held in the time stipulated by law, between 22 September and 14 October. Any changes in the election date or law have to pass in Parliament.

However, parties are not very impressed by the idea: PCP says a two weekend election would be very complicated and urges caution for the government; the PSD continues to press on the idea of postponing the elections for November/December and says it's the only solution; BE criticizes the minister for rejecting early voting in these elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 20, 2021, 02:43:01 PM
2021 local elections: Interior minister suggests voting in two separate weekends.

PM Costa rebuffs his minister and refuses a two weekend election for the fall local election:


Quote
Costa disagrees with Cabrita and rejects local elections on two different days or weekends

During the PS national committee meeting, PM António Costa said he refuses to call local elections on two different weekends or even for two different days, like what happened in the Netherlands during their general election. The idea was launched by his Interior Minister, Eduardo Cabrita, but parties didn't liked very much the idea preferring a two day election or delaying the elections. During the committee meeting, sources said that Costa said the idea was "dangerous", adding that the Azores and Presidential elections were held in difficult times of the pandemic with relatively safety. Other party members also trashed Mr Cabrira idea. During his public speech in the meeting, Costa also trashed the PSD and CDS coalition agreement for the local elections, saying both parties have no ideas for the country, that their only goal is to weaken the PS and the government and that the last thing the people of Portugal want is parties making "political moves" against the government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 21, 2021, 09:50:48 AM
DA office is investigating a controversial sale of dams by Energies of Portugal (EDP) to French company Engie in which the government is also suspect of collusion:


Quote
EDP. MP investigates sale of six dams to Engie

This controversy has been in the headlines for some days now. The controversy started when BE revealed that EDP didn't pay taxes for the sale of six dams to the French company Engie and accused the government of collusion with EDP by passing legislation exempting EDP of paying million of euros in taxes. The PSD is also accusing the government of colluding with EDP and of a ruinous deal that cost taxpayers millions of euros. Now, it was revealed that the DA office is already investigating this controversial deal. According to the media, investigators are particularly interested in the government's interference in the deal with the approval of a bill in the 2020 budget that, allegedly, would have exempt EDP of paying taxes. This bill was approved just 2 months before the deal was finalised and ratified in Parliament with the votes of PS and IL and the against votes of the PSD. The government is refusing any wrongdoing and says that EDP wasn't benefited and that every thing was done by the law. The DA office says that crimes of corruption, influence peddling and qualified tax fraud are on the table.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Post by: Mike88 on March 23, 2021, 06:20:46 PM
Update on the 2021 local elections:

- The PSD continues to present candidates for cities across the country. The party has presented more than 200 candidates so far, and today, PSD leader Rui Rio presented more candidates. The main headline was the announcement of the candidates for Porto, Gaia and Sintra. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/autarquicas-rui-rio-apresentou-meia-centena-de-candidatos-do-psd_v1306774) In Porto, Rio choose his former deputy Vladimiro Feliz as candidate; in Gaia, António Oliveira, former coach of Portugal's national football team, is the PSD candidate; and in Sintra, Ricardo Batista Leite, MP and the party's spokesperson on healthcare, was Rio's pick. However, these 3 candidates have basically zero chances of defeating the current incumbents in Porto, Gaia and Sintra;

- In the PS, few candidates are being presented yet, but there are some tensions. In Castelo Branco, the former mayor of the city, Luís Correia, who was forced out of office due to corruption but the charges were dropped, wants to run but the PS doesn't like the idea. He's now thinking of running as an independent, which could split the PS vote in this Socialist bastion. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/23/politica/noticia/presidentes-freguesias-castelo-brancos-declaram-apoio-incondicional-luis-correia-1955551) However, the PSD is still also struggling to find a candidate for the city;

- Santana Lopes continues to pop up and this time it seems he's considering an Independent run for Figueira da Foz. (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/santana-lopes-a-caminho-de-anunciar-candidatura-a-cm-da-figueira-da-foz) Rui Rio has confirmed that Santana will not be a PSD candidate in any city and his run in Figueira da Foz could dash the Social Democrats hopes of retaking that city from the PS;

- In my hometown, Póvoa de Varzim, the PS has presented their candidate: João Trocado. (https://maissemanario.pt/joao-trocado-assume-candidatura-a-camara-da-povoa-aberta-a-qualquer-afinidade-politica-fotos/) The current PSD mayor, Aires Pereira, is running for reelection and he will probably win easily again as the city has voted for the PSD in every single election since 1987;

- CDU hasn't officially presented any candidate, while BE has presented their candidate for Lisbon city: Beatriz Gomes Dias. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/15/politica/noticia/bloco-quer-beatriz-gomes-dias-camara-lisboa-1954559) BE MP since 2019, Ms Dias was born in Dakar, Senegal, and has lived in Lisbon since she was four years old. The Liberal Initiative (IL) also presented their "plan B", after their original candidate dropped out, and nominated Bruno Horta Soares, one the party's founders, as candidate. (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-03-20-Autarquicas.-Bruno-Horta-Soares-e-a-nova-escolha-do-IL-para-a-camara-de-Lisboa-7101906a) The other candidate in the Lisbon race is the Volt Portugal leader, Tiago de Matos Gomes;

- CHEGA is also presenting candidates and their aim is to be the third most voted party, although that's literally impossible. The party has presented a Police union leader for Amadora city, José Dias, (https://www.dn.pt/politica/-chega-candidata-dirigente-e-sindicalista-da-psp-a-camara-da-amadora-13490002.html) and in Porshes parish, Lagoa, Faro, a gypsy candidate that was invited to head the list in that parish, declined the party's invitation;  (https://postal.pt/politica/2021-03-21-Candidato-cigano-declinou-convite-do-Chega-para-Porches-ae22dd87)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 24, 2021, 07:33:47 AM
2021 local elections: Costa says the elections will be held in September.


Quote
António Costa says local elections will be in September

While visiting the construction works of a school in Lisbon, PM António Costa announced to reporters that the local elections will be held in September, but didn't give any more details, adding that there's still enough time to speak. Parliament is set to vote on a PSD proposal to postpone the elections for November/December, but that proposal is dead on arrival as PS, CDU and BE reject the idea. The PM will meet with party leaders, probably in June, to discuss the election date. The election has to be called between 22 September and 14 October, meaning the likeliest dates are 26 September or 10 October. October 3 may be out of the question as it is too close to the October 5 holiday.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 24, 2021, 10:52:43 AM
Dam sell controversy: Ana Gomes denounces the government to the EU because of the controversial sell of dams from EDP to French company Engie.  (https://eco.sapo.pt/2021/03/23/negocio-das-barragens-da-edp-chega-a-bruxelas/)


Quote
In addition to the shameful fiscal tassel and the smell of conflict of interest and #corruption, there is an illegal State aid in the transfer of the concession of the dams authorized by Gov between EDP and ENGIE. Parliament does not seem to see. So I warned Brussels (PE, CE) and not only ...

Former PS MEP and Presidential candidate Ana Gomes, denounced the Portuguese government to European institutions because of the controversial sell of dams from EDP to the French company Engie. Ms Gomes asked the EU institutions to follow and inspect this deal as she accuses the State of giving an illegal aid to EDP and creating a special fiscal exemption for EDP, Energies of Portugal. She also accuses the PM and the minister of the environment of vague and confusing statements that cannot be tolerated by authorities. The ministers of Finance and Environment went yesterday to Parliament to explain the deal at the same time a leaked document from the Portuguese Environment Agency showed the deal was rejected by its technical staff, but ultimately approved by the agency's chairman.  (https://expresso.pt/economia/2021-03-24-Barragens-da-EDP-presidente-da-APA-garante-que-venda-foi-autorizada-depois-de-esclarecidas-todas-as-duvidas-14601132)

Also, PCP retracts their vote against the so-called "Freemason law" and Parliament postpones the vote of the PSD and PAN proposals:


Quote
PCP does not close the door to ‘Freemason law’, says it can increase “transparency” and Parliament postpones vote.

The so-called "Freemason law", in which public office holders would be obliged to list the associations they belong to, was expected to fail today, but at the last minute, PCP retracted their position against and is now willing to support the PSD and PAN bills. The party says it will review similar laws in other countries and recognizes it could increase transparency in public life. The PSD bill, that unlike the PAN, makes it mandatory for public office holders to disclose their association affiliations, is in the center of a big debate with Freemason associations accusing the PSD, and Rui Rio, of persecution and that the bill is unconstitutional as it goes against freedom of speech and religious liberty. However, many pundits are applauding the PSD bill as they accuse the Freemasonry of being a place where shady deals and corruption is widespread.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 25, 2021, 09:24:48 AM
2021 local elections: The most famous page of the election cycle has returned: "Tesourinhos das Autárquicas 2021" (Treasures of the local elections 2021)

The first ridiculous poster for the elections this year goes to the PSD candidate in Moita:


Quote
May the Force be with you in 2021!
In Moita, PSD candidate Luís Nascimento is already giving "slashings" to the PCP.
This promises ...

A new leadership for our land. We deserve more! Luís Nascimento

8) 8) 8)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 25, 2021, 06:36:01 PM
Tension between President, PM and Opposition parties due to social aid approved against the government's wishes:


Quote
United opposition approved increase in social support. Government threatens to sent it to the Courts. Marcelo in a dilemma.

A few weeks ago, all of the opposition parties, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS, PAN, CHEGA and IL, approved a BE bill that would increase social support for independent workers affected by the pandemic and the subsequent social/financial crisis. This proposal was only rejected by the PS and it would create a 300 euros monthly support for independent workers and for parents that have to stay home because of schools closings. The PS is furious with this "rebellious" vote and is asking the President to veto the bill. But, President Marcelo is undecided on the bill. Marcelo has been pressing for more support for people affected by the pandemic, as Portugal is one the EU countries that is least spending in social supports (https://observador.pt/especiais/portugal-foi-dos-que-menos-gastou-na-zona-euro-em-2020-para-combater-pandemia-o-que-estao-os-outros-a-fazer/) because of the pandemic, and this puts the President in a dilemma as he doesn't want to be seen as uncaring, plus creating a precedent that could make budgets a hell for governments in the future, but also the bill colides with budget law. The government is threatening the President with the Constitutional Court if he signs the bill, while the opposition parties, mainly BE, are pleading to the President to not fall in the lame excuses of the government.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 26, 2021, 06:21:04 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Funchal city (104,000 inhabitants) - PS incumbent

Vote share %:

42.0% PSD/CDS (-0.5), 5/6 seats
42.0% PS/BE/PDR/NC (-2.1), 5/6
   4.2% CHEGA (+2.0), 0
   2.5% IL (new)
   2.0% JPP (+0.9), 0
   1.1% CDU (-1.0), 0
   1.0% PTP (nc), 0
   5.2% Others/Invalid (-1.8 ), 0

Poll conducted between 22 and 23 March 2021. Polled 1,520 voters. MoE of 2.50%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 26, 2021, 07:32:26 PM
More 2021 local elections updates:

- PSD and CDS closed the lists for Lisbon city. (https://rr.sapo.pt/2021/03/26/politica/psd-e-cds-fecham-lugares-em-lisboa-cds-so-tem-tres-lugares-em-sete-nas-listas-a-camara/noticia/232205/) The PSD will lead, of course, the list for mayor while CDS will have the position of deputy mayor. In the Municipal assembly, the CDS will lead the list, with PSD in second. For the 24 parishes of Lisbon city, the PSD will lead the lists in 15 and CDS in 9. These negotiations were made between the local parties and Carlos Moedas candidacy;

- PSD could face a split in Sintra city. The former PSD candidate in 2017 and Independent in 2013, Marco Almeida, is upset for being put aside by the party and is considering an Independent run. (https://observador.pt/2021/03/24/mais-uma-dor-de-cabeca-para-rio-marco-almeida-deve-ser-candidato-independente-a-sintra/) The PSD choosed as candidate MP Ricardo Batista Leite, which has appeared in several TV shows, even in the UK, to discuss the Covid-19 pandemic. Mr Almeida was expelled from the PSD after his 2013 run but returned to the PSD in 2017. If he runs as an Independent again, he will be expelled again;

- In Torres Vedras, there's also a split, but in the PS. The current PS mayor is running for reelection, but he will face an independent challenge by a PS dissident. (https://jornaldemafra.pt/2021/03/25/autarquicas2021-sergio-galvao-e-candidato-a-camara-de-torres-vedras-pelo-movimento-unidos-por-torres-vedras/) The movement "United for Torres Vedras, will be led by Sérgio Galvão, a former PS councillor that held office between 2005 and 2016. In 2017, the PS easily won Torres Vedras by a 51% to 31% margin against the PSD;

- BE announced their candidate for Porto mayor. The party nominated Sérgio Aires as candidate. (https://www.jpn.up.pt/2021/03/26/autarquicas-2021-be-ja-tem-candidato-para-a-camara-do-porto/) Mr Aires was the number 3 candidate in the BE list for the 2019 EP elections. Between 2012 and 2018 he was President of the European Anti-Poverty Network in Portugal and has a long track record of fighting against poverty and exclusion;

- PS is also presenting more and more candidates. In Póvoa de Lanhoso, Braga, the PS renominated their 2017 candidate, Francisco Castro. (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1719264/frederico-castro-e-candidato-pelo-ps-a-povoa-de-lanhoso-pela-3-vez) In 2017, the PS lost here by a hair, with a difference of just 1% between PSD and PS. In Chamusca, Santarém, the PS is renominating the incumbent mayor Paulo Queimado. (https://observador.pt/2021/03/24/autarquicas-paulo-queimado-ps-e-recandidato-a-camara-da-chamusca/) (fun fact: Chamusca means scorch in Portuguese and Queimado means burned, so "Scorch" has a "burned" mayor) xD xD

- In CDS there are tensions because of the many PSD/CDS coalitions: In Oliveira de Azeméis, Aveiro, some CDS parish members are upset with the PSD/CDS coalition (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/26/local/noticia/acordo-psdcds-leva-demissoes-concelhia-centrista-oliveira-azemeis-1955950) and are leaving the party and will run as Independents. And in Ponte de Lima, the biggest CDS bastion in the country, the party is very divided about which candidate to choose and a coalition with the PSD is even considered (https://observador.pt/2021/03/25/guerra-de-poder-em-ponte-de-lima-aquece-o-cds/), even though PSD and CDS in Ponte de Lima have a history of bitter relations;

- In the national stage, Parliament rejected the PSD proposal of postponing the elections (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-03-25-Chumbada-proposta-do-PSD-para-adiar-as-autarquicas-9a21eb27) for 60 days because of the pandemic. Only the PSD voted in favour of the bill. At the same time, the PS is planning to present a bill to ease early voting (https://rr.sapo.pt/2021/03/25/politica/eleicoes-autarquicas-ps-esta-a-preparar-mais-alteracoes-a-lei-eleitoral/noticia/231984/), although the Interior minister says it's impossible, and IL presented a bill to eliminate "reflection day" (https://www.dn.pt/politica/iniciativa-liberal-leva-a-votos-fim-do-dia-de-reflexao-antes-das-eleicoes-13501409.html), which forbid election campaign/news/propaganda in the 24 hours before election day;


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 27, 2021, 09:46:31 AM
PM Costa hopes that the President vetoes the social aid approved by Parliament against the government's wishes:


Quote
António Costa expects Marcelo to veto new social supports.

After the media started reporting, earlier this week, that President Marcelo was very undecided on what to do regarding a 300 monthly support for independent workers approved by Parliament but against the wishes of Costa, the Prime Minister spoke, yesterday, for the first time regarding the issue. Costa said that there's no conflict at all with the President despite the alert given by the government about the proposed social aid being unconstitutional. The PM added that the law is clear and that any additional spending beyond budget limits is illegal, and pressed that there's no conflict but rather an information to the President. Also yesterday, the Minister of the Presidency, Mariana Vieira da Silva, also said the government will use every legal options to stop the social aid, and that they are waiting for the President's decision. Pundits agree that the law is in the government's side, but that this paints the government is a bad manner because of the current social crisis created by the pandemic.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 27, 2021, 06:09:56 PM
So... the Parliament passed new social benefits (I assume with the votes of the left-of-centre majority), the Socialist Prime Minister is against that because he thinks that's unconstitutional, but it is not clear whether the Social Democratic President of the Republic will veto the bill?
This sounds pretty peculiar, and I think Costa is the one who stands to lose.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 27, 2021, 06:52:14 PM
So... the Parliament passed new social benefits (I assume with the votes of the left-of-centre majority), the Socialist Prime Minister is against that because he thinks that's unconstitutional, but it is not clear whether the Social Democratic President of the Republic will veto the bill?
This sounds pretty peculiar, and I think Costa is the one who stands to lose.

Yes, all parties left to right, expect the PS, approved the proposed new social benefit. Costa, like I said above, has the law on his side but, Portugal is already one of the countries in the EU that is spending less in social supports because of the pandemic, plus President Marcelo has been very critical of the government's lack of planning and social support, so the government's strong opposition to this social aid doesn't look good at all. Marcelo will make a decision between tomorrow and Monday, but pundits believe that he will veto the law. We'll see.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 28, 2021, 01:01:22 PM
JUST IN: President Marcelo approves social supports passed against the government's wishes:


Quote
Marcelo signs urgent social support measures

After the controversy of the last few days, President Marcelo has made up his mind and has signed the social supports approved in Parliament against the wishes of the government. Even though Costa and his government made public pressure for a Presidential veto, Marcelo didn't agree with Costa's arguments. However, the President goes on to say, in a statement sent by the Presidency, that the government has every right to persue the legal path and send the bill to the Constitutional Court. "It's Democracy and the Rule of Law at work." he concluded.

The President also adds that there is a government without a majority and that it's essential that this term lasts until 2023. However, he points that election timings can lead to confrontations between Government and Opposition in matters that can lead to injurious crisis for Portugal. Parties, he continued, need to dialogue and find common ground especially in a time of health/social/economic crisis like we face today, concluding that the role of the President is to highlight these values.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 28, 2021, 05:27:25 PM
2021 local elections: José Calixto, the current mayor of Reguengos de Monsaraz, is the PS candidate for Évora.


Quote
Exclusive RC: Local elections 2021- José Calixto is the PS candidate for the Évora Chamber

The PS has nominated José Calixto as candidate for Évora city. Mr Calixto is currently mayor of Reguengos de Monsaraz, a village just next to Évora, but he has been surrounded in controversy and scandal because of his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic in Reguengos de Monsaraz. Mr Calixto was also the chairman of a nursing home in Reguengos and this nursing home is accused of bad practices and "Human right violations". He also got a Covid-19 jab before any patient of the nursing home got one. The current mayor of Évora, Carlos Pinto de Sá (CDU), hasn't announced yet if he will run for a 3rd term.

A possible pick up for the PS, but after this nomination I believe the PS just gave CDU another term in Évora, and we will see how the PS vs PSD position will be in Évora. The Socialists lost their mind completely.

Also, CDU picks João Ferreira, MEP and former Presidential candidate, as candidate for mayor of Lisbon:


Quote
João Ferreira is the candidate of the CDU to Lisbon.

The announcement was expected but CDU confirmed it this afternoon. Current MEP and former Presidential candidate João Ferreira will lead the CDU list for Lisbon mayor. Mr João Ferreira was already the CDU candidate for Lisbon in 2013 and 2017, being elected as councillor both times. He also was the head candidate of CDU in the 2014 and 2019 EP elections and, most recently and like referred above, candidate in the 2021 Presidential elections last January.

The almost final list of candidates for Lisbon mayor and their coalitions is the following:

Fernando Medina (inc) - PS/Livre
Carlos Moedas - PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/A/RIR
Beatriz Gomes Dias - BE
João Ferreira - CDU
Bruno Horta Soares - IL
Nuno Graciano - CHEGA
To be announced - PAN
Tiago Matos Gomes - Volt Portugal


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 29, 2021, 08:25:28 AM
After the controversy of the last few days, President Marcelo has made up his mind and has signed the social supports approved in Parliament against the wishes of the government. Even though Costa and his government made public pressure for a Presidential veto, Marcelo didn't agree with Costa's arguments. However, the President goes on to say, in a statement sent by the Presidency, that the government has every right to persue the legal path and send the bill to the Constitutional Court. "It's Democracy and the Rule of Law at work." he concluded.

The President also adds that there is a government without a majority and that it's essential that this term lasts until 2023. However, he points that election timings can lead to confrontations between Government and Opposition in matters that can lead to injurious crisis for Portugal. Parties, he continued, need to dialogue and find common ground especially in a time of health/social/economic crisis like we face today, concluding that the role of the President is to highlight these values.

As I said before, Costa only stood to lose, and he definitely lost here. It is interesting that Marcelo did the opposite of what pundits thought, I suppose.

And huh, is this a signal that Marcelo has entered "it is my 2nd term, I am free to do whatever pleases me" mode?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 29, 2021, 09:30:50 AM
After the controversy of the last few days, President Marcelo has made up his mind and has signed the social supports approved in Parliament against the wishes of the government. Even though Costa and his government made public pressure for a Presidential veto, Marcelo didn't agree with Costa's arguments. However, the President goes on to say, in a statement sent by the Presidency, that the government has every right to persue the legal path and send the bill to the Constitutional Court. "It's Democracy and the Rule of Law at work." he concluded.

The President also adds that there is a government without a majority and that it's essential that this term lasts until 2023. However, he points that election timings can lead to confrontations between Government and Opposition in matters that can lead to injurious crisis for Portugal. Parties, he continued, need to dialogue and find common ground especially in a time of health/social/economic crisis like we face today, concluding that the role of the President is to highlight these values.

As I said before, Costa only stood to lose, and he definitely lost here. It is interesting that Marcelo did the opposite of what pundits thought, I suppose.

And huh, is this a signal that Marcelo has entered "it is my 2nd term, I am free to do whatever pleases me" mode?

Yep, it doesn't look good a PM fighting against social supports when unemployment is rising and people/families in dire conditions are growing because of the pandemic and it seems that he actually though the President would veto it. Speaking to reporters today, Costa said the President's decision was "very creative" and "very innovative" (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/29/politica/noticia/costa-considera-mensagem-marcelo-apoios-sociais-criativa-afasta-cenario-crise-politica-1956342), adding that the government is analysing the President's decision and will decide then what to do. Costa also said that there is no time for political crisis and that his working to make the government last until 2023.

About, what does this means for Marcelo's 2nd term, well, Marcelo, like I said above, was undecided because either way he could be badly interpreted: he could veto it but then he would be seen as a hypocrite as he has been criticizing the lack of social supports for people affected by the pandemic; or signed it and face a possible clash with the government who could respond with the Courts. He decided to sign the social supports but with a very strong message to both the Government and the Opposition: for the Opposition was to warn that this cannot become a regular thing and dialogue with the government is necessary; for the Government, he warned that they don't have a majority, they need to talk with other parties and search common ground, one of the main criticisms lately, by pundits and the Opposition, of Costa and his ministers has been that they have become arrogant and very sensitive to attacks.

I believe Marcelo made a clear warning to Costa by saying that if he continues the current path, he will not last until 2023 and that Marcelo's goal is stability and a government that last until the end of the current Parliament.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 31, 2021, 10:02:21 AM
PM António Costa to make a speech regarding the Presidential approval of social supports:


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Prime Minister will speak to the country about social supports at 6:30 pm.

The Prime Minister's office has announced that Costa will give a speech to the nation regarding the approval, by President Marcelo, of social supports against the government's wishes. The PM and his inner circle have been analysing the President's decree and are being pressured by many PS members to send the social supports to the Constitutional Court. Many Constitutionalists have also been trashing President's Marcelo decision. The PM will, therefore, announce the government's decision on what the following steps will be.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on March 31, 2021, 01:30:22 PM
PM Costa opposes President Marcelo and sends the new social supports to the Constitutional Court:


Quote
"Law is law". Costa opposes Marcelo and sends social support to the Constitutional Court

The PM spoke this afternoon about the ongoing new social supports controversy. The PM said the government decided to send the new social supports to the Constitutional Court with the argument that they clearly violate the law and should not be implemented. Costa added that "the Law is the Law" and that "the Constitution is the supreme law either the government is a minority or a majority." He also says that the President's approval tried to limit the constitutional damages these new social supports do, but that doubts are still present. The PM didn't confront directly, but however indirectly, the President but attacked parties in Parliament saying that "it wasn't their time", adding that their time was in the budget discussion and not now.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 01, 2021, 06:20:44 AM
Reactions to Costa's decision to send the Social Supports to the Court:

President Marcelo reacted to Costa's decision (https://www.publico.pt/2021/03/31/politica/noticia/marcelo-encerra-polemica-apoios-avisa-recuperacao-implica-viabilizar-dois-proximos-oe-1956777) saying that "it is the Law that serves policy, it is not the policy that serves the Law", and adds he's now worried about what lies ahead reinforcing the view that the recovery of the country implies that the next two budgets, 2022 and 2023, need to be approved.

However, here lies the problem. The left parties are furious with Costa and the PS, and are ready to increase the confrontation (https://observador.pt/especiais/apoios-sociais-acabaram-com-os-restos-da-geringonca-esquerda-prepara-se-para-aumentar-o-confronto/) against the government. PCP and BE don't understand Costa's decision and accuse the government of creating instability and "playing with fire". Negotiations for the 2022 budget will probably be very, very complicated.

On the right, the PSD says the government has every right to go to the Courts (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/apoios-sociais-psd-pede-que-governo-adote-solucoes-criativas-721305) but adds that, in the end, it's the people who suffer as the government isn't proposing policies or supports to help people and pressed the government to find "creative" policies to help people. The Liberals (IL) accuse the government of "arrogance" (https://eco.sapo.pt/2021/03/31/be-acusa-governo-de-querela-politica-com-o-parlamento-sobre-apoios-sociais/) and of creating a fake crisis by not acknowledging the need for more social supports. CHEGA says the PS is isolated while CDS says that Costa's decision is the "biggest gesture of political bankruptcy" of his term.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 01, 2021, 05:37:04 PM
Social supports crisis: Court could only have a ruling by the end of 2022.


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Costa asked for an urgent ruling, but the Constitutional Court has no deadline to decide

The government has asked urgency to the Court but the media says that a ruling could only be announced by the end of 2022. With no deadline for a ruling, the Court says they have, currently, 17 bills in analysis and a majority have a ruling in the final phase, but the average period of a decision is always well above a year. The Court adds that, however, that period could be cut in half if the Court recognizes the urgency of the request. Expresso newspaper adds that these kind of requests don't have preference, so even with urgency the most recent go to the bottom of the waiting list.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 03, 2021, 07:22:03 AM
Corruption investigations: José Sócrates to know next week if he goes to trial or not. The ruling could be a political bomb.


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Decision of the Sócrates case: ‘bomb’ in politics ... or in justice? "He will not be quiet"

Next Friday, April 9, a judge will decide if José Sócrates, and other accused like former BES chairman Ricardo Salgado, will go to trial for corruption, money schemes and other crimes. The ruling is very awaited as it has been delayed a few times already. The judge will decide if he upholds the crimes the DA office accuses Mr Sócrates, but the case is controversial as many accuse the DA office of a weak defense and of confusing proofes, but Judge Ivo Rosa, the judge that will decide, is also controversial as many of his rulings have been reverted by higher Courts. The decision could create a political and judicial bomb as Mr Sócrates is a very toxic person as the right uses him, over and over again, to attack the PS, which, on their turn, is an embarrassment for the Socialists and they have long stopped defending Sócrates and want distance from him. Either way, Mr Sócrates is unlikely to be silent.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 03, 2021, 05:24:23 PM
Social supports crisis: President Marcelo "throws splinters" at the Prime Minister.


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Marcelo does not disguise tension in his response to Costa and creates the concept of “preventive salvation of the Budget”

The Social Supports fallout continues to dominate headlines. Pundits are somewhat split on who is right and wrong in this crisis, some say that Marcelo was wrong to sign a bill that hurts the Constitution and that Costa is now "the savior" of it, while others point that this isn't so much a legal issue but a political issue in which a Socialist government is refusing to expand social supports, for people affected by the pandemic, and the President is forcing them. Nonetheless, President Marcelo gave, today, his first full and public response to Costa decision last week. The President seems to be clearly upset with Costa as he said that if he was as "rigorous" as the government seems to be now, many of Costa budgets would die at birth, but that he signed them all for the sake of political stability. He pressed on to say that don't count on him to create a political crisis and that his goal, now, is to have the 2022 and 2023 budgets approved by Parliament. The President actually says that his approval of the social supports against the government's wishes, was a "Preventive Budget Salvation" for 2022.

Now, it's unclear how would this save the 2022 budget as PCP and BE are, currently, furious with the PS. Plus, adding to this, the fall local elections, which could give a very bad result for the PCP, could force a full blown budget crisis that could end in snap elections. The budget for 2022 could still, in may view, pass if the PSD gets humiliated in the local elections and a new leader has to be elected. In that space of time, the PSD could be forced to abstain in the budget and it will pass. But, this would be just a temporary meassure as the budget execution during 2022 could spark even more tensions.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 04, 2021, 07:00:01 AM
PSD mayor of Viseu, Almeida Henriques, died of Covid-19:


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Viseu: Almeida Henriques, Mayor of Viseu, died victim of Covid-19.

The mayor of Viseu city, almost 100,000 inhabitants, Almeida Henriques (PSD) died this morning from Covid-19. He was hospitalized in Viseu city hospital since March 10 and was in ICU since mid last month. PSD leader Rui Rio has already reacted saying he's sadden by the dead of Mr Henriques, and the government and President Marcelo have also sent condolences to his family. Mr Henriques was mayor of Viseu since 2013 and was running for reelection this year. Viseu city hall has also reacted by saying the city in now "orphan" and that Mr Henriques work has been abruptly stopped but that his legacy in the city will endure and continue.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local electionsIn Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 04, 2021, 12:18:15 PM
2021 local elections update:

- In the PSD, there's utter chaos in 3 cities: Portimão, Amadora and Barcelos. In Portimão, the PSD nominated a former PS councillor that became famous by eating a bunch of papers when the police entered his office to investigate corrupt deals. The national PSD forced the local PSD to drop this nomination. (https://postal.pt/politica/2021-04-03-PSD-nacional-chumba-candidato-e-desautoriza-concelhia-de-Portimao---Uff-que-alivio-foi-o-comentario-de-Francisco-Amaral-02b4eb54) In Amadora, the local party nominated Suzana Garcia, a criminal commentator that has controversial positions like support for chemical castration for pedophiles, f.e.. The national party was unaware of her positions and her candidacy is now in danger. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/04/03/politica/noticia/psd-anuncia-candidatos-suzana-garcia-nao-garantida-amadora-1956945) And in Barcelos, a PSD bastion, the party choose, finally, a candidate and it will be João Sousa (https://observador.pt/2021/04/03/psd-de-barcelos-escolhe-independente-joao-sousa-e-soma-seis-demissoes/), the chairman of one of Portugal's main fashion industries, Flor da Moda, that owns the Ana Sousa fashion brand;

- In the PS, in Barcelos city, just like the PSD, there's big tensions about the elections. The current mayor is involved in several corruption investigations but the local PS has nominated him as candidate for the local assembly (https://ominho.pt/concelhia-do-ps-propoe-horacio-barra-como-candidato-a-camara-de-barcelos/) while the current leader of the local assembly of Barcelos, Horácio Barra, will be the candidate for mayor. These nominations are creating a lot of tension and protests in the local party;

- Independent mayors continue to be very impatient with parties in Parliament, and are again renovating their threat of creating their own party if Parliament doesn't reverse the 2020 changes (https://postal.pt/politica/2021-04-03-Candidatos-independentes-as-autarquicas-ameacam-avancar-com-um-novo-partido-c15bb2d5) in the electoral law that limited independent candidacies. PS has proposed changes in the law, while PSD is more stubborn and is very wary of making changes in the law;

- In Ponte de Lima, a CDS bastion, the party is deeply divided. (https://zap.aeiou.pt/cds-poder-ponte-de-lima-392288) 3 CDS members are running, 1 as the official party candidate and the other two as independents, which could fracture the CDS vote in Ponte de Lima. The PSD refused a coalition with CDS and has presented their own candidate. The CDS won here, in 2017, with 52% of the votes but a fragmented CDS could make this village a winnable place for the PSD. A race to watch.

More updates when available.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 05, 2021, 05:54:26 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/primavera-socialista-deixa-psd-a-16-pontos-de-distancia-13533038.html)

Vote share %:

39.7% PS (+2.1)
23.6% PSD (-2.9)
  8.6% BE (+0.9)
  8.5% CHEGA (+2.0)
  6.0% CDU (+0.2)
  4.8% IL (-0.9)
  3.2% PAN (-0.7)
  1.1% CDS (+0.3)
  0.8% Livre (-0.3)
  3.6% Others/Invalid (-0.5)

Preferred PM:

54% António Costa (nc)
18% Rui Rio (-2)
18% Neither (-1)
  4% Both (+1)
  6% Undecided (-2)

Government approval:

55% Approve (+5)
24% Disapprove (-9)
19% Average (+4)
  2% Undecided (nc)

President of the Republic approval:

72% Approve (+4)
17% Disapprove (-1)
  9% Average (-3)
  2% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 24 and 27 March 2021. Polled 830 voters. MoE of 3.40%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 05, 2021, 07:36:44 AM
1. Lmao José Socrates. How is he still around? And how is there even the chance he doesn't get sent to a trial?

2. I see the rift between Marcelo and Costa is officially getting bigger and bigger. This is not at all unexpected, I suppose, but also not great. It is interesting that they both keep having pretty good approval ratings (although I wonder whether and how this is going to change in the following weeks) - I would say that this story is among other things another testament to the ineffectiveness of Rui Rio, who looks... absent from the headlines. Speaking of whom, what is the chance that he resigns after the local elections?

3. Rest in peace Almeida Henriques.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 05, 2021, 09:20:03 AM
1. Lmao José Socrates. How is he still around? And how is there even the chance he doesn't get sent to a trial?

2. I see the rift between Marcelo and Costa is officially getting bigger and bigger. This is not at all unexpected, I suppose, but also not great. It is interesting that they both keep having pretty good approval ratings (although I wonder whether and how this is going to change in the following weeks) - I would say that this story is among other things another testament to the ineffectiveness of Rui Rio, who looks... absent from the headlines. Speaking of whom, what is the chance that he resigns after the local elections?

3. Rest in peace Almeida Henriques.

1. Sócrates is always around. He's basically a shadow that continues to hover around as he is the embodiment of all that is wrong and toxic in the political class in Portugal. There's a chance he could avoid trial because of 2 factors: the DA has been accused of creating a highly complex case against him in which a minor error could derail the whole accusation, plus, the judge who will make the call, Ivo Rosa, is very controversial and several of his rulings in the Sócrates case have been revoked by higher Courts. Now, if the judge decides not to take Sócrates to trial, that doesn't mean the end of this case as the DA could still appeal to the Relação Court, which can revoke the decision. But, in the meantime, Sócrates would have the spotlight and seek revenge for those who abandoned him. Some pundits compare the Sócrates case with Lula's in Brazil, and curiously, Lula is also a suspect in Sócrates money schemes;

2. Yeah, the rift between Costa and Marcelo is not going away and the President responded in a very harsh way to Costa. Of course this film isn't new, as Presidents in their second term always have tensions with the Prime Ministers, but this one was earlier than expected. My hunch is that this a battle for power and who really controlls the agenda. In practice, Costa is the only one with real powers, but Marcelo isn't a "ceremonial" President and want his will and voice heard which is now creating a clash. The fact that both are very popular, reinforces the opinion that this is a power struggle, but polling also shows that in terms of trust, Marcelo beats Costa 3 to 1, so it will be interesting to see if this clash with Marcelo hurts Costa's popularity and the PS, or even the other way around.

About Rio, he has been out of the spotlight in the last few days mainly because he had to put out fires ignited by local branches of the PSD: the PSD-Amadora pick, Suzana Garcia, was received with raised eye brows in the leadership and then there's the total mess happening in Portimão. In terms of press, Rio actually got a pretty good month of March, with pundits and the media applauding many of his picks for the local elections and his tough stance against the government in the Dam tax scandal. But, yes, polling still shows him as ineffective and not a real alternative against Costa. His future is dependent on the PSD performance in the September local elections. The PSD seems to be in a much better position this time compared with 2017, with strong candidates in the main cities, especially Lisbon, but Rio has already said that he will step down his he fails to make substantial gains in the local elections.

3. The Almeida Henriques news is very sad but, unfortunately, it was expected for a while. He had been in an ICU for the last few weeks and the updates given by Viseu city hall, pointed that his situation was getting worse and worse. Last week, he was even victim of a fake rumour spread by CMTV, a TV channel that has a 4-5% tv rating and is like if Fox News and TMZ merged, saying that he had died but that was denied by Viseu city hall which warned about fake rumors. The PSD now needs to pick a candidate for that city and the indications seem to suggest the party will pick Mr Henriques predecessor, Fernando Ruas, as the PSD candidate for mayor of Viseu, who is known as Mr Roundabouts.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 05, 2021, 12:24:25 PM
1. Lmao José Socrates. How is he still around? And how is there even the chance he doesn't get sent to a trial?

2. I see the rift between Marcelo and Costa is officially getting bigger and bigger. This is not at all unexpected, I suppose, but also not great. It is interesting that they both keep having pretty good approval ratings (although I wonder whether and how this is going to change in the following weeks) - I would say that this story is among other things another testament to the ineffectiveness of Rui Rio, who looks... absent from the headlines. Speaking of whom, what is the chance that he resigns after the local elections?

3. Rest in peace Almeida Henriques.

1. Sócrates is always around. He's basically a shadow that continues to hover around as he is the embodiment of all that is wrong and toxic in the political class in Portugal. There's a chance he could avoid trial because of 2 factors: the DA has been accused of creating a highly complex case against him in which a minor error could derail the whole accusation, plus, the judge who will make the call, Ivo Rosa, is very controversial and several of his rulings in the Sócrates case have been revoked by higher Courts. Now, if the judge decides not to take Sócrates to trial, that doesn't mean the end of this case as the DA could still appeal to the Relação Court, which can revoke the decision. But, in the meantime, Sócrates would have the spotlight and seek revenge for those who abandoned him. Some pundits compare the Sócrates case with Lula's in Brazil, and curiously, Lula is also a suspect in Sócrates money schemes;

2. Yeah, the rift between Costa and Marcelo is not going away and the President responded in a very harsh way to Costa. Of course this film isn't new, as Presidents in their second term always have tensions with the Prime Ministers, but this one was earlier than expected. My hunch is that this a battle for power and who really controlls the agenda. In practice, Costa is the only one with real powers, but Marcelo isn't a "ceremonial" President and want his will and voice heard which is now creating a clash. The fact that both are very popular, reinforces the opinion that this is a power struggle, but polling also shows that in terms of trust, Marcelo beats Costa 3 to 1, so it will be interesting to see if this clash with Marcelo hurts Costa's popularity and the PS, or even the other way around.

About Rio, he has been out of the spotlight in the last few days mainly because he had to put out fires ignited by local branches of the PSD: the PSD-Amadora pick, Suzana Garcia, was received with raised eye brows in the leadership and then there's the total mess happening in Portimão. In terms of press, Rio actually got a pretty good month of March, with pundits and the media applauding many of his picks for the local elections and his tough stance against the government in the Dam tax scandal. But, yes, polling still shows him as ineffective and not a real alternative against Costa. His future is dependent on the PSD performance in the September local elections. The PSD seems to be in a much better position this time compared with 2017, with strong candidates in the main cities, especially Lisbon, but Rio has already said that he will step down his he fails to make substantial gains in the local elections.

3. The Almeida Henriques news is very sad but, unfortunately, it was expected for a while. He had been in an ICU for the last few weeks and the updates given by Viseu city hall, pointed that his situation was getting worse and worse. Last week, he was even victim of a fake rumour spread by CMTV, a TV channel that has a 4-5% tv rating and is like if Fox News and TMZ merged, saying that he had died but that was denied by Viseu city hall which warned about fake rumors. The PSD now needs to pick a candidate for that city and the indications seem to suggest the party will pick Mr Henriques predecessor, Fernando Ruas, as the PSD candidate for mayor of Viseu, who is known as Mr Roundabouts.

1. I see. What a toxic case. I remember Sócrates wrote a pretty hilarious op-ed for some Brazilian outlet somewhere months ago, by the way. I don't know how much his case resembles Lula's, but I hope this Ivo Rosa and the Portuguese courts in general show more integrity than what was seen in Sergio Moro...

2. Yeah, you told me about how it's a tradition for second-term Presidents to have exactly this sort of clashes. I agree with the rest of what you said about the power struggle.
About Rio, what would constitute substantial gains from his point of view?

3. Why is Fernando Ruas known as Mr. Roundabouts?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 05, 2021, 12:55:52 PM
1. I see. What a toxic case. I remember Sócrates wrote a pretty hilarious op-ed for some Brazilian outlet somewhere months ago, by the way. I don't know how much his case resembles Lula's, but I hope this Ivo Rosa and the Portuguese courts in general show more integrity than what was seen in Sergio Moro...

2. Yeah, you told me about how it's a tradition for second-term Presidents to have exactly this sort of clashes. I agree with the rest of what you said about the power struggle.
About Rio, what would constitute substantial gains from his point of view?

3. Why is Fernando Ruas known as Mr. Roundabouts?

1. Yes, Sócrates started writing op-eds, a few years ago, in a Brazilian outlet called "Carta Capital", which according to the Portuguese media is close to the Workers Party (PT). He most recently wrote an op-ed, in the same magazine, about the January Presidential elections trashing Ana Gomes. The case against Sócrates is strong but is very complex, involves a lot of people and this complexity means that it needs to be defended very carefully. Like the Lula case, this case involves the political and financial world in Portugal, with former BES bank leader Ricardo Salgado, f.e. as a suspect in the case. Judge Ivo Rosa is a judge in the 1st Instance Courts, which are Courts that sometimes, and more often than not, give weird and controversial sentences that are then resolved by more experienced and well regarded judges in the Relação Courts, the 2nd Instance Courts. The selection of Ivo Rosa as judge was also controversial as the previous judge was a fierce critic, and enemy, of Sócrates and the change was to give more stability to the case. Let's wait for the decision but the case is far from over.

2. Rio needs to close the huge gap between the PS and PSD, as the current state of parties is 161-98 cities in favour of the PS. Surpassing the PS is mathematically possible but it isn't a realistic possibility, so, the PSD needs to close that gap. Winning Lisbon would already be a huge coup for Rio and if he's able to gain a few more big cities, like Coimbra or Funchal, have strong showings in more big cities like Gaia and Sintra, plus regain control of some small to mid size cities, he would be in a strong position and remain as PSD leader.

3. Fernando Ruas is known as the "Mr Roundabouts" because when he was the PSD mayor of Viseu, between 1989-2013, he developed a road system in Viseu city full of roundabouts. You can see in the map of the city, the ridiculous number of roundabouts in the city: (you can zoom in ant out to see it better)
https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=16/40.6572/-7.9126

Basically all mayors of Portugal started copying him and, currently, roundabouts are basically a way of life in Portugal. xD xD


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 06, 2021, 10:23:29 AM
CHEGA-Azores crisis: Challenger of CHEGA-Azores leader drops out from the snap leadership race.


Quote
José Pacheco gives up on the race to Chega / Açores. Carlos Furtado is, so far, the only candidate  

CHEGA regional MP, José Pacheco, has dropped out from the snap party leadership race after consulting with party members and supporters. Mr Pacheco announced this decision today, and said it's time to end the disagreements within the party. He added that he took this decision to defend and save the party, plus to end the tension and save the party's caucus in the regional Parliament, saying "Sometimes is better to have peace than reason". He concluded that he will be on alert regarding the current leadership, that he still accuses of being "indecisive".

The regional party entered, in late January, in a bitter internal feud because of Mr Pacheco's inflammatory posts of Facebook regarding the social income support (RSI). Carlos Furtado, CHEGA-Azores leader and regional MP, was furious with the post and demanded its deletion, which was badly receive by Mr Pacheco. He accused Mr Furtado of being too moderate and challenged him for a leadership race. Ventura even tried to mediate a "peace treaty" between the two CHEGA MPs but with no success. Mr Furtado then resigned, announced his run and called an election for May 1st, that was also contested by José Pacheco as he said he wasn't "properly" informed. Other reasons given, but not public, for Mr Pacheco withdraw from the race was the fear that Carlos Furtado would leave the party and seat as an Independent and fears that the party was also collapsing in the region.

Let's see how long the "peace" lasts in CHEGA-Azores.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 07, 2021, 06:03:12 AM
2021 local election update:

- The PSD will present more candidates today. The most controversial one is Rio's approval for Amadora. For days now, the media has been criticizing the PSD-Amadora for picking Suzana Garcia, a pink-TV commentator that has controversial postions, and the national PSD seemed undecided on what to do. Last night, Rio approved Ms Garcia candidacy and, according to sources, said the media hyped the controversy*. (https://zap.aeiou.pt/rio-aprova-suzana-garcia-para-a-amadora-isaltino-morais-e-quase-certo-em-oeiras-393045) In Oeiras, the decision is not yet made as the PSD is still undecided of they support Isaltino Morais or present a candidate of their own. Rio wants to support Isaltino Morais;

- In the PS, the Porto city race is heating up internal divisions. José Luís Carneiro, Costa's deputy in the PS, wants to run for Porto mayor (https://www.publico.pt/2021/04/05/politica/noticia/carneiro-pondera-candidatura-porto-pizarro-nao-goste-1957300), but Manuel Pizarro, the PS candidate in 2013 and 2017, doesn't like the idea as it could take power from him in the PS machine in Porto district. Mr Pizarro, a MEP since 2019, hasn't ruled a 3rd run yet but he seems to want to stop Mr Carneiro's run in Porto. A process to watch.

- CDU wants to regain cities they lost in 2017, mainly Almada and Barreiro, and they hitting them hard. In Almada, the Communists will present the current mayor of Setúbal to face the incumbent PS mayor. And in Barreiro, the CDU presents the former mayor of Barreiro, Carlos Humberto Carvalho (2005-2017), as candidate to face the also incumbent PS. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/04/06/politica/noticia/dinossauro-carlos-humberto-carvalho-quer-voltar-camara-barreiro-1957363) Another race to watch is Seixal, as the CDU barely hold it in 2017 and several scandals in the CDU led city could give it to the PS, a race to watch;

- Tomorrow, Parliament will vote on the abolishment of reflection day. (https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/730469/parlamento-discute-fim-do-dia-de-reflexao-nao-faz-sentido?seccao=Portugal_i) The current law, forbids any election campaign 24 hours before election day, and the Liberals (IL) want to abolish it. It's unclear, however, how the vote will play out;

(* Like the PS pick for Évora, this one from the PSD is pure stupidity. In a time when the party needs everything but negative publicity, the party chooses negative publicity. Madness, but whatever. The PSD continues their long streak of presenting "TV commentators" in the Lisbon suburbs, which, tbf, hasn't been that bad electorally for the party, but the negative publicity nationwide damages more the party.)

More update when available.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 07, 2021, 05:34:46 PM
Former PS minister, Jorge Coelho, died in a car crash this afternoon, age 66:


Quote
Jorge Coelho, historic socialist member, died

Jorge Coelho, former minister and right arm of then PM António Guterres, died, this afternoon, in a car crash when he suffered a heart attack. All political leaders from left to right are reacting to the tragic news, with especially PM Costa, as he was very emotional while speaking to the press earlier this evening. Mr Coelho was deputy minister and Infrastructure minister during António Guterres governments (1995-2002) and he resigned from office in the aftermath of the disaster of the Hintz Ribeiro bridge colapse in 2001. He was still active in the PS, architecting the successful 2005 PS campaign, that gave them a majority. He then worked in the private sector, mainly on Mota-Engil, one Portugal's biggest construction companies. However, he was still a very controversial politician and he was actually the author of one of the most known attacks in Portuguese politics: "Whoever messes with the PS, takes it."


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 08, 2021, 06:06:53 AM
Elections in Portugal: Reflection day on the verge of being abolished, it seems.


Quote
Liberal Initiative wants to end the day of reflection before the elections - RTP Notícias.

Today, a Liberal Initiative bill to abolish the Reflection day, a 24 hour blackout of election reports/campaign on the day before election day, will be debated in Parliament. According to RTP, the idea seems to be pleasing most parties in Parliament and although it will debated, the bill will probably not be voted and will go to a final draft on speciality to receive contributions by other parties. The change could arrive at time for the September local elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 09, 2021, 05:30:07 AM
Corruption investigations: Former PM José Sócrates, and others, to know today if they will go to trial due to corruption and money schemes.


Quote
Operation Marquis. José Sócrates on the verge of knowing if he is going to trial - RTP Notícias

Is this afternoon, after 2:30pm, that Judge Ivo Rosa will read the long awaited ruling of José Sócrates corruption case, called Operation Marquis. Mr Sócrates is accused of 31 crimes going from corruption to money laundering and fraud. Others accused, are involved in Sócrates money schemes, are former BES bank chairman, Ricardo Salgado, former Portugal Telecom leaders Zeinal Bava and Henrique Granadeiro, and the "best friend" of Sócrates, the man who allegedly gave all the money, Carlos Santos Silva. In total, the 28 suspects in this case, from people to bussiness companies, are accused of 189 crimes. During the week, it was also reveled that the police found a safe box, in Switzerland, with a document showing that Sócrates was the heir of 34 million euros. The money, according to the DA and the police, was from Sócrates best friend, Carlos Santos Silva, but they accuse Mr Silva of being just the face as they say the money comes from bribes to Sócrates.

Sócrates started being investigated in 2013 and was arrested and detained in 2014, He spent almost an year in prison until being released in September 2015, on the eve of the 2015 elections. The case arrived at Courts in 2019 and one of the big criticisms of the case is that is taking too long and if fact, with possible appeals and back and forwards, the case could drag on until 2036. This case is dominating the media, but they are already preparing the ground for a possible no trial decision by the judge and subsequent appeal of the DA to the Relação Courts. We'll see the outcome.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 09, 2021, 09:34:32 AM
José Socrates is accused of corruption but the crime has prescribed, so he will not be put on trial by this crime. The judge is now reading his ruling on the other crimes.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 09, 2021, 10:24:27 AM
José Socrates is accused of corruption but the crime has prescribed, so he will not be put on trial by this crime. The judge is now reading his ruling on the other crimes.

So far, all the crimes the DA accused Sócrates, Salgado, others are being dismissed by the judge or have prescribed. The judge is actually trashind the DA accusation.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 09, 2021, 11:00:38 AM
José Sócrates getting saved by the statute of limitations is something I had not considered, and it leaves kind of a bad taste in the mouth.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 09, 2021, 11:08:03 AM
José Sócrates getting saved by the statute of limitations is something I had not considered, and it leaves kind of a bad taste in the mouth.

This ruling is just... Infuriating!! You can argue that the DA office has made several mistakes in the accusation but, IMO, the naivety of the judge in many of his statements is just mind boggling. The joke is social media, right now, is that there's no legal prove that Sócrates was even Prime Minister.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 09, 2021, 11:52:59 AM
José Sócrates getting saved by the statute of limitations is something I had not considered, and it leaves kind of a bad taste in the mouth.

This ruling is just... Infuriating!! You can argue that the DA office has made several mistakes in the accusation but, IMO, the naivety of the judge in many of his statements is just mind boggling. The joke is social media, right now, is that there's no legal prove that Sócrates was even Prime Minister.

I mean, we have seen similar things. Giulio Andreotti got away from his trial for being an accomplice to Mafia crimes with a ruling according to which there was no conclusive evidence that his active collusion lasted beyond 1980 - while the crimes before 1980 narrowly fell under the statute of limitations.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 09, 2021, 11:56:56 AM
JUST IN:  The Judge accepted 6 crimes of money laundering and forgery of documents and Sócrates and his best friend, Carlos Santos Silva, will go to trial on these crimes. In question there are 1.7 million euros in cash loans from Silva to Sócrates as this money was used in illegal schemes and that Sócrates excuses and explanations are invalid.

Of the 31 crimes he was accused, only 6 were accepted by the judge. The corruption accusations were all dismissed or prescribed.

The DA also announced, in the end of the judge ruling, that they will appeal to the Relação Courts.

José Sócrates getting saved by the statute of limitations is something I had not considered, and it leaves kind of a bad taste in the mouth.

This ruling is just... Infuriating!! You can argue that the DA office has made several mistakes in the accusation but, IMO, the naivety of the judge in many of his statements is just mind boggling. The joke is social media, right now, is that there's no legal prove that Sócrates was even Prime Minister.

I mean, we have seen similar things. Giulio Andreotti got away from his trial for being an accomplice to Mafia crimes with a ruling according to which there was no conclusive evidence that his active collusion lasted beyond 1980 - while the crimes before 1980 narrowly fell under the statute of limitations.

Indeed, the main headline of this is that this is the first time ever we have a former PM sent to trial. Like I said, the DA will appeal and this appeal will take a long time, the media was saying around 1-2 years, so a lot of time.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 09, 2021, 01:37:01 PM
José Sócrates, Ricardo Salgado, Carlos Santos Silva and 2 others will go to trial on just 17 crimes out of 189 proposed by the DA office:


Quote
Of the 189 crimes of Operation Marquis, only 17 go to trial.

Judge Ivo Rosa ruling on who will go to trial and by which crimes is controversial and dividing opinions. Just 17 crimes out of the 189 the DA accused 28 people/companies were accepted by the judge and will go to trial. Former PM José Sócrates will go to trial for money laundering, forgery of documents, alongside his "best friend" Carlos Santos Silva. Former BES bank chairman Ricardo Salgado, will go to trial for 3 crimes of abuse of trust, and former PS minister, Armando Vara, which is serving currently a jail sentence for other crimes, will also go to trial for money laundering. José Sócrates chauffeur, João Perna, will also go to trial but for illegal gun possession. Sócrates corruption accusations were all dropped as they have already prescribed, but the judge said that it is clear that Sócrates sold his position as Prime Minister for money. Like I wrote above, the DA will appeal to the Relação Courts.

Finally, this image sums up the day:

After the ruling session, José Socrates went to a cafe terrace to dine and drink beer and, of course, CMTV was there and Sócrates was trashed by the reporter because there were 5 people on the table and there's a 4 people rule in terrace tables because of the pandemic. Sócrates drank his beer and didn't respond to the reporter.
 


Priceless.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 09, 2021, 05:23:46 PM
Parties are starting to react to the "Operation Marquis" ruling:

- PSD leader Rui Rio called an emergency meeting of his leadership team to analyse the ruling (https://expresso.pt/operacao-marques/2021-04-09-Operacao-Marques.-Rio-convoca-Comissao-Permanente-para-sabado-para-analisar-decisao-ba9775d6), but an official position by the PSD is still unknown;

- BE says the ruling demands a "reflexion" (https://expresso.pt/operacao-marques/2021-04-09-Preocupacao-de-uns-revolta-e-indignacao-de-outros.-Caso-Socrates-poe-partidos-de-mira-na-Justica--e-alguns-em-silencio--236232a9) about the Justice system in Portugal;

- CDS says the current system is "sick", (https://observador.pt/2021/04/09/politicos-da-esquerda-a-direita-indignados-e-preocupados-com-decisao-sobre-socrates-e-crise-na-justica/) while CHEGA says the ruling creates "outrage and revolt";

- The Liberals (IL) said that "democracy has become more fragile today" (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/iniciativa-liberal-a-democracia-ficou-hoje-mais-fragil-13553874.html) and that confidence in institutions may be intoxicated;

- No official reaction from neither PS or PCP, although this afternoon, PM Costa, when pressed by reporters, said that he stands by with what he said in 2014, "Of justice what is of justice, of politics what is of politics";


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 10, 2021, 10:13:46 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

39.6% PS (+0.1)
27.8% PSD (-0.4)
  7.7% CHEGA (+0.2)
  6.2% BE (-0.8 )
  5.2% CDU (+0.7)
  2.5% IL (+0.4)
  2.1% PAN (-0.4)
  2.0% CDS (-0.2)   
  6.9% Others/Invalid (+0.4)

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 April 2021. Polled 1,020 voters. MoE of 3.07%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 10, 2021, 11:22:11 AM
Backlash against Judge Ivo Rosa: A public petition, with less than 24 hours, to ban Judge Ivo Rosa from justiceship already has more than 50,000 signatures and the numbers continue to grow non stop:


Quote
Petition with more than 50 thousand signatures wants to remove Ivo Rosa from the judiciary

The ruling of Judge Ivo Rosa regarding the "Operation Marquis", which involves former PM José Sócrates, continues to dominate all news in Portugal and reactions to his ruling are dividing opinions. In the media, there's a clear split between pundits with half saying the judge's ruling was fair as the DA case was full of mistakes, while others say the judge was naive and could face defeat in the Relação Court. But, in the general public, there seems to be a huge backlash against Judge Ivo Rosa. A public petition, created in the early hours of today, to ban the judge from the judiciary, (https://peticaopublica.com/pview.aspx?pi=PT95055) already has more than 50,000 signatures and they are growing by the second.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 11, 2021, 10:31:47 AM
Sócrates has a new book where he calls Costa a "traitor":


Quote
“It has only just begun”, the new book by Socrates where Costa is a “traitor”.

José Sócrates is about to launch a new book called "It has only just begun", where he trashes the PS, António Costa and media. In the book, Sócrates starts by saying "Politics loves betrayal, but despises the betrayer", a clear attack towards the Socialist Party and goes on to say that his corruption investigation was a plan to defeat the PS in the 2015 elections and force the PS to have no candidate in the 2016 Presidential elections, hinting he was planning to run in those elections. Sócrates never calls Costa by name, but rather "the current PS leader", and calls Costa a traitor and someone he never expected personal camaraderie, concluding that Costa and the PS wanted to remove from history "the only leader who have an absolute majority to the party". However, he praises Mário Soares, Almeida Santos and recalls the visit of António Guterres, when Sócrates was in prison.

He also compares judge Carlos Alexandre, the judge who started the case against him before being substituted by judge Ivo Rosa, and compared him with Brazilian judge Sérgio Moro. The preface to the book is written by former Brazil President Dilma Rousseff.

The washing of dirty laundry has begun. Also, the petition against Judge Ivo Rosa continues to grow and has almost 150,000 signatures and is already one of the biggest petitions ever.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Conservatopia on April 11, 2021, 02:30:26 PM
The preface to the book is written by former Brazil President Dilma Rousseff.

Wouldn't that be like Matt Gaetz having his memoirs prefaced by Ghislaine Maxwell?


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 11, 2021, 05:20:54 PM
The preface to the book is written by former Brazil President Dilma Rousseff.

Wouldn't that be like Matt Gaetz having his memoirs prefaced by Ghislaine Maxwell?

A bit exaggerated, IMO, as neither Dilma or Sócrates have anything to do about sex trafficking crimes, but I would say it's more like, for example, Donald Trump having his memoirs prefaced by Jair Bolsonaro, or the other way around.

Dilma is making a complete fool of herself by her staunch support and defense of Sócrates.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 12, 2021, 10:42:36 AM
2021 local elections update:

- In the PSD, the soap opera continues. After last week announcement of the last bunch of candidates, local parties in 3 cities, Barcelos, Castelo Branco and Leiria, are pissed with Rio because of the rejection of the candidates approved by local branches. (https://zap.aeiou.pt/escolha-de-joao-belem-agita-psd-castelo-branco-394333) The 3 local parties are saying that the picks by Rio are a huge mistake and it's all on him, while PSD/Barcelos even threaten Rio by saying that the city is worth 4,000 votes in the PSD leadership race. These 3 local parties also have a lot of internal infighting with the curiosity that Barcelos and Leiria are huge PSD strongholds but, because of internal divisions, have fallen to the PS in local elections;

- If the PSD is loud in showing their division, the PS is quiet in showing their own divisions. In the PS there seems to be a lot of divisions and that's why the party is delaying and delaying the announcement of several candidates. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-04-08-Candidaturas-autarquicas-do-PS-adiadas.-Prioridade-e-evitar-divisoes-df4af1a3) There are "silent" tensions between the national leadership and many local branches candidates, in some cases, are pursuing Independent candidacies that could divide the PS vote. In the meantime, the Socialists are attacking the PSD and Rio for their picks saying that "haste is the enemy of perfection";

- Independent mayors are losing their patient with Parliament (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/autarcas-independentes-dao-prazo-de-15-dias-para-alterar-lei-eleitoral-e-pedem-extincao-da-cne-725209) and are already threatening parties that if they don't change the electoral law by the end of April, they will form their own party to run for the elections. Parties agreed last week for a 2 week draft of a final change in the electoral law to accommodate the demands of the Independent mayors. These mayors are also furious with the Electoral Commission (CNE), after the Commission suggested that Independent candidates should be forced to reveal their party membership. Indy mayors, like Porto mayor, Rui Moreira, said the CNE is "useless", that it should be abolished and the Constitutional Court could easily fill the CNE shoes;

More updates when available.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 12, 2021, 01:13:25 PM
PSD leader Rui Rio wants reforms in the Justice system and criticized the PM for evading responsibilities by not reforming the Justice system that creates rulings like the "Operation Marquis" one:


Quote
Rui Rio talks about Operation Marquis and the state of justice.

The leader of the PSD, Rui Rio, gave a speech this afternoon about the controversial ruling of the "Operation Marquis" that continues to dominate headlines. Mr Rio said that the current regime "is sick" and that when "the Justice system isn't working, the people will not understand it", adding that in this case people don't understand how can a PM where there are evidences of corruption during his term, will not face consequences. He then accused "the system" of not waiting to reform itself and pointed directly to PM Costa, and indirectly to President Marcelo as well, by accusing the PM of hypocrisy for his stance that separates this case from the Justice and the Political system, as when the Justice system isn't working, policy makers need to step up and give the justice system the tools they need. Mr Rio went on to say that the current PS government doesn't want to reform the Justice system as it is "captured by corporate interests" and wants to maintain the status quo. He pressed on by saying that this is the reason parties on the far-right are growing and the only way to fight them is to the system be able to reform itself. He finalized by saying the PSD will continue on a path for reform in the Justice system.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 13, 2021, 05:34:08 AM
Mayor of Vila Real de Santo António (PSD) arrested for corruption charges:


Quote
Mayor of Vila Real de Santo António arrested for corruption crimes

Vila Real de Santo António, a city in the Algarve bordering Spain, city hall was raided by the police this morning and the city's mayor, Conceição Cabrita (PSD), was arrested. According to the media, she is a suspect in a real estate deal in Monte Gordo, a tourist/resort area in the city, in which a property was sold by a much lower price than it was stipulated by the market, thus hurting the city's finances. A city hall employee was also detained by the police. Ms Cabrita is mayor since 2017, but this time the PSD did not choose her as candidate for the fall local election and picked her predecessor as candidate.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 14, 2021, 05:59:17 AM
PS mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina, breaks the party's silence and accuses Sócrates of a behavior that "erodes democracy itself":


Quote
Fernando Medina accuses José Sócrates of betraying the confidence of the Portuguese - RTP Notícias

Lisbon mayor, PS Fernando Medina, has become the first high ranking PS member to comment on the Sócrates ruling of last Friday. Mr Medina accused Sócrates of betraying the trust of the Portuguese People and of having a behavior that "erodes Portuguese democracy itself". Medina's very harsh criticisms towards Sócrates have, therefore, break the huge silence within the PS regarding the ruling. Fernando Medina was a member of Sócrates cabinet, as secretary of state, during his terms as PM (2005-2011).

Also, surrounding the arrest of the PSD mayor of Vila Real de Santo António, a PS MP has also been raided and the police is asking the removal of Parliamentary immunity:


Quote
Judiciary Police: Judiciary searched the house of PS MP António Gameiro in the context of Operation Triangle

The arrest of the PSD mayor of Vila Real de Santo António (VRSA), yesterday, surprised the PSD and the party already believes that Vila Real de Santo António could be a lost cause, even though the party's candidate wasn't the incumbent mayor. But, the police investigation on this matter has now reached the PS. The police raided, this morning, the house of PS MP António Gameiro. Mr Gameiro is also the PS candidate for mayor of Ourém, Santarém district. The police has already asked the removal of his Parliamentary immunity. Mr Gameiro is suspect of being an intermediary of the bribe between the PSD mayor of VRSA and a the real estate buyer.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 15, 2021, 06:24:17 AM
José Sócrates interview on TVI: From attacking the judge's ruling to accusing the PS of being "scoundrels".


Quote
The temperature rose when the interviewer, José Alberto Carvalho, pressed the former prime minister about the money he received in real money from his friend

José Sócrates interview last night on TVI is dominating headlines. The interview is being considered a total trainwreck for Mr Sócrates as pundits suggest he lives in a fantasy land. The interview started with the interview pressing Sócrates about the corruption charges, that were proven by the judged but dropped because they had prescribed. Sócrates denied he was accused of corruption which created a back and forward between him and the interviewer, as the interviewer was reading the ruling that clearly said that Sócrates committed corrupt deals as PM and with Sócrates refusing those claims. The interview went on and another clash occurred when it was discussed his relation with his "best friend" Carlos Santos Silva. Sócrates completely failed to explain the money scheme between him and his "best friend", in which he said things like, for example, when he lived in Paris, "It wasn't a life of luxury, it was investment in education." These statements are being ridiculed by pundits and social media. He also said that his case is a big conspiracy, created by the rightwing, to damage him and prevent him to run for political office. He ended the interview by trashing, again the PS, accusing the mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina, of being a "scoundrel" and suggesting he's a puppet of Costa by saying the attack he made against Sócrates was a direct order from Costa.

Like I said above, pundits are trashing the interview saying that Sócrates lives in a fantasy land and that lies over and over again. At the same time, some voices suggest the PS cannot stay silent much longer and probably needs to make a self-criticism (https://rr.sapo.pt/2021/04/15/graca-franco-nas-tres-da-manha/caso-socrates-ps-ja-devia-ter-feito-uma-autocritica/artigo/234669/) about Sócrates and his role in the party.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: VPH on April 15, 2021, 07:13:14 AM

Finally, this image sums up the day:

After the ruling session, José Socrates went to a cafe terrace to dine and drink beer and, of course, CMTV was there and Sócrates was trashed by the reporter because there were 5 people on the table and there's a 4 people rule in terrace tables because of the pandemic. Sócrates drank his beer and didn't respond to the reporter.
 


Priceless.

Sometimes CMTV makes the world a more fun place. Most of the time it's horribly sensationalized. This is a good example of the former.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 15, 2021, 08:41:32 AM
Sometimes CMTV makes the world a more fun place. Most of the time it's horribly sensationalized. This is a good example of the former.

They had a field day on that day. And they are still using a lot of Sócrates references for other stuff like for football and other cases.

For example: https://twitter.com/JosGome40657225/status/1381612925362835460/photo/1

8) 8) :D


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 15, 2021, 05:53:55 PM
Other controversies:

CDS-Madeira leader and Regional Government member, Rui Barreto, accused of receiving illegal funds from a businessman close to CHEGA:


Quote
Madeira: Money transfers of businessman linked to Chega to CDS-Madeira leaders open controversy

An investigation by SIC TV revealed that a businessman linked to CHEGA, called César do Paço, financed CDS-Madeira 2019 campaign by lending into the bank accounts of Rui Barreto, CDS-M leader, and other CDS members in the region, around 30,000 euros in total. The same investigation says that Mr Paço sent an email to Mr Barreto, in July 2020, to return the money. Mr Barreto says the donation was because the party was in dire situation in 2019 and that Mr Paço offered some help to the party. However, the donation could be illegal as it surpasses the 10,400 euros legal limit in the election campaign finance law. Mr Barreto was also asked why he didn't repaid the donation, and he said that Covid got into the way and that Mr Paço attorney "disappeared". However, the donation was repaid just days after SIC talked with Mr Barreto for the investigation, in February 2021. This is creating controversy in Madeira with the PS demanding explanation and suggesting that Mr Barreto has no conditions to remain in the Region's government. President Miguel Albuquerque (PSD) says he has full confidence in Mr Barreto.

Also, the DA office has asked for the removal of Parliamentary immunity for 9 MPs about the ongoing "Fake addresses" scandal. One BE MP has already resigned:


Quote
Fake addresses. Who are the other nine deputies who will lose parliamentary immunity.

The DA office has asked for the removal of parliamentary immunity for 9 MPs involved in the "Fake addresses" scandal. They are 4 MPs from the PSD, 3 from the PS, 1 from BE and 1 from CDS. One BE MP, Sandra Cunha, has already resigned because of this investigation. The scandal was revealed in 2018, and it shows that several MPs were receiving travel support for living outside Lisbon. The problem was that many didn't lived outside Lisbon and forged their addresses in order to receive these monetary supports. However, some MP, like CDS MP João Almeida, trashes the accusation saying he never had a house in Lisbon and that the house he stayed in Lisbon was his brother's. Other MPs are also expected to react to the prosecutors (DA) accusation.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 16, 2021, 07:51:53 AM
Mr Rio went on to say that the current PS government doesn't want to reform the Justice system as it is "captured by corporate interests" and wants to maintain the status quo. He pressed on by saying that this is the reason parties on the far-right are growing and the only way to fight them is to the system be able to reform itself. He finalized by saying the PSD will continue on a path for reform in the Justice system.

#POPULIST <3

So Rui Rio is trying to improve the PSD's position by out-populist-ing CHEGA? That's interesting.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on April 16, 2021, 09:00:41 AM
Mr Rio went on to say that the current PS government doesn't want to reform the Justice system as it is "captured by corporate interests" and wants to maintain the status quo. He pressed on by saying that this is the reason parties on the far-right are growing and the only way to fight them is to the system be able to reform itself. He finalized by saying the PSD will continue on a path for reform in the Justice system.

#POPULIST <3

So Rui Rio is trying to improve the PSD's position by out-populist-ing CHEGA? That's interesting.
To be fair reforming the Justice system has always been one of Rio's pet obsessions


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 16, 2021, 09:11:27 AM
Mr Rio went on to say that the current PS government doesn't want to reform the Justice system as it is "captured by corporate interests" and wants to maintain the status quo. He pressed on by saying that this is the reason parties on the far-right are growing and the only way to fight them is to the system be able to reform itself. He finalized by saying the PSD will continue on a path for reform in the Justice system.

#POPULIST <3

So Rui Rio is trying to improve the PSD's position by out-populist-ing CHEGA? That's interesting.
To be fair reforming the Justice system has always been one of Rio's pet obsessions

Exactly. Not that he's not wrong, IMO, as the Justice system needs clearly some kind of reform, however his policies aren't very consensual and even Justice structures don't like them.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 17, 2021, 12:36:04 PM
2021 local elections - Intercampus poll for Lisbon city; 510,000 inhabitants; PS incumbent:  (https://zap.aeiou.pt/fernando-medina-de-pedra-e-cal-em-lisboa-396024)

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

46.6% PS (+4.6)
25.7% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/A (-6.1)*
   7.1% CDU (-2.6)
   6.6% BE (-0.5)
   6.1% CHEGA (new)
   2.3% IL (new)
   0.5% PAN (-2.5)
   5.1% Others/Invalid (-1.4)

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 April 2021. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

* Sum of the PSD and CDS separate lists in 2017: 20.6% for CDS and 11.2% for PSD.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 18, 2021, 12:33:14 PM
Hundreds of CHEGA supporters rallied, this afternoon, in Lisbon city against the proposed illegalization of the party:  (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1734583/centenas-de-pessoas-em-protesto-contra-a-ilegalizacao-do-chega-em-lisboa)


Quote
Hundreds of people protesting against the illegalization of Chega in Lisbon

Hundreds of CHEGA supporters rallied in one of Lisbon's main squares, this afternoon, to protest against the proposed illegalization of the party. The protest was headed by CHEGA leader, André Ventura. The protest passed by the Constitutional Court and ended in Rossio Square. A heavy police presence and structure was set up for the rally to avoid any confrontations. In the last few months, the topic of a possible illegalization of CHEGA has been discussed with manly former presidential candidate, Ana Gomes, demanding the investigation and illegalization of the party due to illegal funding and incitement to violence. In the rally, Ventura said that only the people can "ban" the party and not the authorities. Several posters in the rally had phrases like "CHEGA or death! We will not give up!". The vast majority of protesters were wearing masks, however, safety distances, because of Covid, weren't followed.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 19, 2021, 05:23:39 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-04-19-PS-regista-valor-mais-baixo-do-ultimo-ano-nas-intencoes-de-voto-c7fd2ae9)

Vote share %:

36.2% PS (-1.4)
23.3% PSD (-0.3)
  9.4% CHEGA (+0.4)
  9.4% BE (+0.9)
  5.2% CDU (-0.3)
  5.0% IL (-0.3)
  4.8% PAN (+2.3)
  3.1% CDS (+0.8 )
  0.4% Livre (-0.3)
  1.5% Others (+0.6)
  1.5% Invalid/Blank (-2.7)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.3 António Costa (nc)
3.0 Catarina Martins (+0.2)
2.9 Rui Rio (-0.2)
2.9 André Silva (+0.1)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.1)
1.9 André Ventura (nc)

Poll conducted between 7 and 13 April 2021. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 3.90%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 19, 2021, 06:24:00 PM
PM António Costa uses words, in the party's 48th anniversary celebration, that could be an indirect response to Sócrates attacks towards him:


Quote
Political parties: Costa says the PS is "much more than circumstantial leaderships".

The PS celebrated 48 years of existence this Monday, the party was founded in 1973 in Germany, and the party held a celebratory session to marl the occasion and launch their 2021 election campaign for the fall local elections. In his speech, Costa honored the first 115 mayors the PS elected in the first local elections in 1976 and withit citting Sócrates himself, Costa honored all the people who led the party from Mário Soares to António José Seguro saying that the party is much more "than circumstantial leaderships", a clear indirect, and intelligent IMO, response to Sócrates, adding also that the PS life is daily made by its members, mayors, MPs and not their leaders. Costa also launched the party's campaign for the fall local elections.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 20, 2021, 09:20:46 AM
2021 local election update:

- In the PS cracks are starting to appear. In Paços de Ferreira, Porto district, the incumbent PS mayor is refusing to run for another term (https://www.publico.pt/2021/04/19/politica/noticia/autarca-pacos-ferreira-abre-guerra-aparelho-ps-avisa-nao-recandidata-1959131) if the current local PS leadership continues. Humberto Brito was nominated by the district party, but an internal feud between him and the local PS chairwoman is derailing the process and the PS district party is now in crisis mode. In Pedrogão Grande, Leiria, the PS is also divided as the PS-Leiria refused to nominate the incumbent Pedrogão Grande mayor, Valdemar Alves (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-04-20-Autarquicas.-Distrital-do-PS-chumba-candidatura-de-Valdemar-Alves-a-Pedrogao-Grande-53da7478), against the wishes of the local party. Mr Alves is accused of corruption involving the post 2017 wildfire recovery funds;

- In the PSD, tensions are also present. Leiria and Castelo Branco local parties continue furious with Rio, for choosing candidates against their wishes, and in Barcelos, the PSD will form a coalition with an Independent movement (https://ominho.pt/candidato-do-psd-diz-que-barcelos-viveu-nas-trevas-durante-12-interminaveis-anos/), led by a former PS dissident. This movement ran in 2017 and got 17%, but divisions within the PSD could derail the possibility of winning back Barcelos. In Sintra, the party will not split as Marco Almeida, 2017 PSD candidate, decided not to run as an Independent (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-04-19-Autarquicas.-Marco-Almeida-nao-vai-ser-candidato-em-Sintra-e-da-conselho-a-Rui-Rio-Seriedade-e7887819). However, in Figueira da Foz, Santana Lopes seems to be on the verge of running as an Independent, splitting the PSD vote;

More updates will be posted when available.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 20, 2021, 01:33:40 PM
Police raided Lisbon city hall for suspicion of corruption in urban projects in the city:


Quote
CML. PJ seized documents, cell phones and computers.

The police (PJ) raided the headquarters of Lisbon city hall, this morning, to collect documents and evidences about suspicion of corrupt deals and abuse of power in urban projects in the capital. The main focus seems to be the former urban councillor, Manuel Salgado, who is already a suspect in this investigation and his house was also raided by the police. The police said they are collecting evidence in a case where Mr Salgado and the Urban offices of Lisbon city are accused of "abuse of power, economic participation in business, corruption, malfeasance, violation of urban rules and influence peddling." Mr Salgado left his office in 2019 and since then there's suspicions about his decisions within Lisbon city hall. The mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina (PS), says he's calm, that he maintains his trust in the decision made by his former councillor and that he wants everything clarified as the city is one of the main stakeholders in all of this.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 21, 2021, 09:00:39 AM
Prosecutors accuse activist who interrupted Costa's speech in 2019, of qualified disobedience and could face 2 years in jail:


Quote
Prosecutor accuses activist who interrupted António Costa of qualified disobedience.

The DA office prosecutors have decided to charge the activist that, in 2019, interrupted a speech of PM António Costa of qualified disobedience, a crime punished with up to 2 years in jail. The activist, Francisco Pedro, from the Extinction Rebellion Portugal movement, interrupted a speech of Costa protesting against the construction of an airport in Montijo, which is now suspended. The prosecutors accuse the activist of "disturbing public order and tranquility" and of not communicating in advance the protest to Lisbon city hall. The trial is set for 13 January 2022. The activist, Francisco Pedro, says that this is a move to punish those who fight for what they believe, adding that it reveals the kind of institutions Portugal has by saying that our resources are being used for a useless accusation like this rather than to stop airport expansion. The PM office was contacted by Renascença radio but no response or comment was given.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 21, 2021, 11:44:06 AM
Internal feud in the PSD: Party's tribunal says there's matter to sanction Rui Rio and party caucus leader Adão Silva because of the Euthanasia vote.


Quote
Euthanasia: PSD jurisdiction considers that there is a matter for disciplinary proceedings against Rio and Adão Silva

The Euthanasia matter is again creating tensions within the PSD. Last October, a PSD member from Braga sent a complaint against the party's leader for not following the vote in the 2020 party's congress that mandated the PSD to support a referendum of Euthanasia. Rui Rio was never in favour of euthanasia and on the Parliamentary vote on the issue, he gave freedom of vote for MPs. Now, the party's tribunal says there is matter to sanction Mr Rio and Mr Silva. The tribunal proposes written reprimand for Mr Rio and the loss of mandate for Mr Silva, but Rio's leadership is furious with the party's tribunal. In a written letter to the tribunal's chairman, Paulo Colaço, accusing him of damaging the party's image and of having "Stalinist tics". They add that they will do everything in their power to preserve the good name of the party.

It's always astonishing how the PSD creates problems that no one cares about, only them.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 21, 2021, 01:15:07 PM
Another "negative coalition" against the government: Parliament approves wage raises for diagnostic technicians in the NHS against the government's wishes.


Quote
Opposition raises diagnostic technicians' salaries by default from the Government

In another vote that is making the PS and the government furious, Parliament approved a wage increase for diagnostic technicians in the NHS starting in January 2022. The meassure will cost, annually, 46,5 million euros. All opposition parties, PSD, BE, PCP, CDS and PAN, voted in favour of the bill while the PS was the sole against vote. The government is furious and is blaming the PSD for this vote accusing the Social Democrats of allowing the creation of a fixed expense for the State that is something that only the government can do. The government is also worried that Parliament is just approving out of control expense bills and that it will damage their fiscal stability plans. Most likely, the Constitutional Court will probably be asked to solve the issue.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 22, 2021, 01:01:24 PM
Electoral law changes: Parliament approves one more voting hour for the local elections and changes the law with some demands from independent movements.


Quote
Voters will have one more hour to vote for local elections. Voting lasts until 8 pm.

Parties in Parliament have been negotiating, during the last two weeks, on small changes for the 2021 local elections, plus trying to change the electoral law to calm down the fury of the Independent movements. This afternoon, parties approved several changes: election day for the 2021 local elections will have one extra hour of voting and people in nursing homes and infected will be able to vote early. Early vote for the rest of voters, however, will note be allowed; Parties also agreed to allow Independent movements to run for mayor and local assemblies on the same ticket and lowered the % of signatures needed to be on the ballot. Names of independent candidates will also be allowed to be on the ballot; Parties also approved the creation of a digital platform to collect signatures, making hand signatures not mandatory.

About the possible end of reflection day, the 24 hour ban of political propaganda/campaign before election day, it was rejected but parties are planning to discuss its end after the 2021 local elections.

This means that on election day, polls will close at 8pm in mainland Portugal and Madeira, and at 9pm in Azores (one hour less than mainland Portugal). Exit polls may only be announced at 9pm.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 22, 2021, 03:11:28 PM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2021-04-22-PS-desce-e-PSD-sobe-nas-sondagens-mas-Direita-nao-chega-aos-40-afc6f4a5)

Vote share %:

37% PS (-2)
29% PSD (+4)
   9% BE (+1)
   7% CDU (nc)
   6% CHEGA (-1)
   2% PAN (nc)
   1% CDS (-1)
   1% IL (nc)
   4% Others (+1)
  5% Blank/Invalid (nc)
  
Government's job approval:

55% Approve (+4)
38% Disapprove (-4)
  8% Undecided (nc)

Party leaders approval ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

6.2 António Costa (+0.2)
4.9 Rui Rio (+0.6)
4.3 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
3.8 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
3.4 André Silva (+0.2)
3.1 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.3)
2.9 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.4)
2.4 André Ventura (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 5 and 13 April 2021. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 22, 2021, 05:52:07 PM
President Marcelo vetoes postmortem insemination bill and sends it back to Parliament:


Quote
Marcelo returns to Parliament decree on post-mortem insemination.

President Marcelo has vetoed a bill that would allow post-mortem inseminations in Portugal. The bill is now back in Parliament for discussions or changes. The President says the bill has many doubts that aren't aligned with the Civil Code, which could create legal uncertainty in a very delicate matter. Marcelo especially has doubts about the rights of the children, conceived by the same father, in terms of inheritances. This bill was approved in Parliament, on 25 March, with the votes of PS, BE, CDU, PAN, IL and Independents. PSD, CDS and CHEGA voted against while 5 PS MPs abstained.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 23, 2021, 11:48:45 AM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper (https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/2021-04-22-Maioria-dos-portugueses-faz-retrato-de-uma-democracia-com-defeitos-0d08258f) on the quality of democracy in Portugal, on the eve of the 47th anniversary of the 1974 revolution:

Q1: Portugal, today, is a democracy...

47% With small defects
36% With big defects
10% Full democracy
  4% Not a democracy
  3% Undecided

Q2: Opinion of the sentence: "The majority of politicians worry about what citizens think."

74% Disagree
21% Agree
  4% Undecided

Q3: Opinion of the sentence: "Voting gives citizens a word on how the country is governed."

50% Agree
45% Disagree
  5% Undecided

Q4: Opinion of the sentence: "The State is managed in order to benefit the people."

72% Disagree
24% Agree
  5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 13 April 2021. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 23, 2021, 05:58:25 PM
Controversy surrounding the 25 April parade as the parade committee retracts their original conditions and now allows all organizations to be part of the parade:


Quote
After all, the April 25th parade fits everyone who wants to “fulfill” it

During the week a controversy around the annual 25th April parade arose. The parade, held every year, this time has limitations because of Covid but organizations, from all sides, started to ask for a place in the parade. The Liberal Initiative (IL), wanted to take part in the parade but the committee rejected their inclusion on the grounds that because of the pandemic, only the parties that take part in the committee, PS, BE, CDU and Livre, can be present. The Liberals were outraged by this decision and accused the parade committee of thinking they "own" the 25 April date, adding that liberty doesn't have owners. This move by the committee created a lot of criticisms with Livre and PS criticizing the "political disability" of the committee. The committee chairman, Vasco Lourenço, tried to explain the decision in a TV interview, but it went horribly wrong as he accused IL of trying to trash the parade. The pressure was mounting on the committee, even though IL said they were not interested anymore in the parade and would make their own parade, so the parade committee announced, this Friday evening, that any organization can be part of the parade, if they signed a pledge written by the committee. The committee also sent a press release repudiating all the accusation towards them, especially the one that they think they own the 25 April.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 24, 2021, 07:14:25 AM
Covid-19 is making racist attacks grow in Odemira, Alentejo:


Quote
Covid-19 increased racism in Odemira against immigrants.

The city of Odemira, Beja district, Alentejo, is currently in lockdown, one of the few cities in the country, because of an outbreak of the virus in the city. Currently, it has 245 active cases in a population of almost 25,000, and more than 80% of the cases are in the immigrant community that works in agricultural fields around the city. TVI24 reports that the immigrant community is being attacked by racist comments as the population in the city is blaming them for the outbreak. The network says that in supermarket lines, people don't want to be near them and accuse them of "destroying the city". Others say that the immigrants should just disappear. Odemira city hall rejects the view that the city is in chaos and surrounded, and says there's just "a more effective control, with an effective reinforcement".


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on April 24, 2021, 07:42:46 AM
Speaking of the incoming 25 de Abril, what is the CHEGA discourse about the national holiday? I have to imagine most 'revisionism' would be found in that segment of the political spectrum, although obviously CHEGA is not a direct heir to a post-Salazarist political tradition (unlike say PP with post-Francoism or FdI with neofascism).


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 24, 2021, 08:36:29 AM
Speaking of the incoming 25 de Abril, what is the CHEGA discourse about the national holiday? I have to imagine most 'revisionism' would be found in that segment of the political spectrum, although obviously CHEGA is not a direct heir to a post-Salazarist political tradition (unlike say PP with post-Francoism or FdI with neofascism).

Well, in his speech in the 25 April ceremony last year, let's see what he says this year, Ventura said that "today we celebrate the end of the dictatorship and the beginning of a democratic regime", but he also defends a "new 25 April" as he accuses the current regime of being out of date, corrupt, badly managed and that a new one is needed, more presidential.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 24, 2021, 01:05:51 PM
Controversy with the nomination of a 33 year old Costa advisor as Director of Social Security:


Quote
"Jobs for the boys" from the PS. Costa advisor in Social Security.

Another controversy arose this week with the revelation that the government nominated a 33 year old Costa advisor, Tiago Preguiça, as General Director of Social Security. The nomination is "temporary" as there will be a public contest for the job, but Mr Preguiça will put his experience of the resume and, therefore, be ahead of any candidate for the job in the near future. Mr Preguiça has a degree in European affairs and has no experience in Social Security. The nomination is being very badly received in the institution as the job, normally, goes to experienced people with a resume in the Social Security ranks. However, this isn't an isolated incident as it common practice in governments led by both PS and PSD. During the previous PSD government (2011-2015), top jobs in the Social Security were given to PSD members, and since the PS is government the same has happened but, this time, almost all of the Social Security top jobs are occupied by PS members.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 24, 2021, 07:50:54 PM
Because today is the 25 April holiday, here's a video that shows Lisbon city on Revolution day and in the following days: (and in colour which is quite rare)




My favourite moment: Minute 1:15 - "Do you want a cheese sandwich?" Revolutions à la Portuguese 8) 8)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 25, 2021, 08:04:03 AM
25 April ceremony in Parliament: President Marcelo gives an educational speech about the past and to learn about its mistakes as police arrests a protester outside Parliament.


Quote
Marcelo wants lessons to be learned from the colonial past.

President Marcelo' speech in the Parliamentary ceremony, commemorating the 47th anniversary of the 25 April revolution, was focused on the past and its lessons for the present and the future. Marcelo said that we have to accept the past and not judge it by the eyes of today, criticizing those who glorify the imperial past but also those who trash everything about Portugal's history. He continued by saying that the 25 April date is the perfect time to reflect on the past, on the good and the bad, and concluded his speech by saying that by reflecting on the past we can solve the lack of justice and take lessons without complexes. Parties also gave speeches in the ceremony:  (https://observador.pt/liveblogs/25-de-abril-volta-a-ser-comemorado-em-emergencia/)

-The PS, by the voice of MP Alexandre Quintanilha, warned about how fragile democracies are currently and that current moment we live, shows that we need each other or we sink. Like Marcelo's speech, there were no direct comments about corruption or transparency;

- PSD leader Rui Rio, on the contrary, focused his whole speech on reforming the system and about fighting corruption, adding that the lack of efficiency of the justice system is one of the reasons why the people are losing trust in institutions. He added that the only way to attacks "extremists" and "radicalism" is to fight the causes that make them grow, concluding that just making "sanitary cords" around them will not defeat them;

- BE choose its Lisbon mayoral candidate and MP, Beatriz Gomes Dias, as their spokesperson and she said that the conquests of April are irreversible and she saluted all the people who fought for freedom on that day in 1974. She also talked about corruption saying it's something that "undermines democracy" and that some use it as a political agenda, in a jibe towards Ventura;

- PCP, by the voice of one their youngest MPs Alma Rivera, said that with the 25 April, all citizens were equal and that no one can be discriminated under the law. She also talked about corruption, saying that its impunity is a stain and an affront to democracy;

- CDS, in a speech made by one of their MPs, Pedro Morais Soares, criticized the lack of strategy of the government because of the pandemic, and that the pandemic made us think about our freedom. The party also talked about corruption, defending it's fight and that the State cannot ignore the distrust of the people;

- PAN leader, André Silva, attacked the "Central Bloc" (PS+PSD) accusing them of "sponsoring some of the most violent sectors of society" because of the ties both parties have with corrupt deals and schemes and the lack of transparency both continue to show. This was Mr Silva last speech as PAN leader in the 25 April ceremonies;

- PEV, said this is a happy day as the revolutions commemorations can go to the street and that now it's time to fight against corruption and invest in a "colourfull future", by more investments in the NHS and education;

- CHEGA leader André Ventura said that today we need black carnations, not red ones, because democracy is in mourning as businesses are closed and because the government isn't helping them. He said Portugal is in a worse shape now as the former USSR republics are surpassing Portugal in terms of wealth asking "What April can we give to the future?" He ended his speech by saying that Portugal needs "another 25 April";

- IL leader, João Cotrim Figueiredo, said that the left thinks they own the 25 April date, showing that they, the left, are arrogant and criticizes the rightwing parties for allowing it. He also said that reforming the justice system and create more opportunities should be Portugal's goal;


Quote
April 25: man arrested at the door of the Assembly of the Republic.

During the ceremony, a few dozen protesters, protesting against corruption, made a very loud presence in front of Parliament. When President Marcelo was leaving the building, the protesters booed the President and shortly after, a protester was arrested after jumping the fence the police put up. (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/manifestante-tenta-subir-escadaria-do-parlamento-e-e-impedido-pela-psp-13609998.html) There was also a heavy police presence in the area. Protesters only applauded former President Ramalho Eanes when he was leaving the ceremony.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 26, 2021, 06:05:37 AM
25 April parades, yesterday, on Liberty Avenue, Lisbon:




Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 26, 2021, 08:26:56 AM
PM Costa received with protests in Valença city, Viana do Castelo, and his Infrastructure minister clashes with protesters:


Quote
Costa received with two protests in Valença

PM Costa and his Infrastructure minister, Pedro Nuno Santos, went to Valença city, Viana do Castelo district, to inaugurate the electrification of the Minho railway, although incomplete, and the renovation of a local highschool. But, the PM and his minister were received by two loud protests. One was against the closure of borders between Portugal and Spain, but the PM didn't interact with them, but the other protest, of Rail workers, was more tense as they were inside the train station. PM Costa went to them but gave immediately the word to minister Pedro Nuno Santos which had a rather tense talk with a protester. The protest worker said they want to be heard by the minister, demanding wage increases that are frozen since 2009, in which the minister responded that what he does the most is meet with workers unions and that "he has done more than anyone else in this office". The protester said that what the minister said wasn't true and Pedro Nuno Santos ended the debate and left the scene.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 26, 2021, 05:51:11 PM
Opposition councillor of Maia city, Porto district, insults members of the municipal assembly after forgeting to switch off the microphone is his Zoom:


Quote
Councillor insults two deputies on Zoom without realizing that he had his microphone on.

It was a weird start of the 25 April Zoom ceremony on Maia city hall. Before the ceremony started, a JPP councillor, Jaime Pinho, elected in a PS-JPP coalition in 2017, started insulting members of the municipal assembly without realising he had his microphone on. As many members were appearing in the Zoom meeting and giving good morning, Mr Pinho was heard saying "He's eating and laughing, that son of a b****".  He was referring to another PS member, which heard what Mr Pinho said and shouted "Hey, pay attention to the language, man!". Mr Pinho didn't heard or decided not to respond, but when another PS member arrived and also greeted everybody on the meeting, Mr Pinho said "Oh f*****g b****". The PS-Maia is furious with the actions of the councillor elected in their 2017 coalition and they are demanding a public apology from councillor Jaime Pinho to the members of the assembly he insulted and to the party. Mr Pinho hasn't responded yet.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 27, 2021, 08:44:28 AM
Opposition councillor of Maia city, Porto district, insults members of the municipal assembly after forgeting to switch off the microphone is his Zoom:

Well, he has resigned as councillor and as member of JPP.  (https://observador.pt/2021/04/27/vereador-da-camara-municipal-da-maia-demite-se-um-dia-depois-de-ter-insultado-deputados-municipais-em-sessao-comemorativa-do-25-de-abril/)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 28, 2021, 06:20:03 AM
Sócrates continues to divide the PS: Deputy caucus leader accuses former PS minister, João Cravinho, of "affected memory" after Mr Cravinho accused Sócrates of stopping the fight against corruption as PM.


Quote
PS responds to João Cravinho on corruption: “You must have a little affected memory”.

The Sócrates debacle continues to divide the PS. As the leadership of the party defends their silence, some former PS minister are criticizing the PS for its posture during the Sócrates years. Former Guterres cabinet minister, João Cravinho, in an interview to SIC TV, said that Sócrates stopped the fight of corruption during his term as PM, when he rejected Mr Cravinho anti-corruption bills. Mr Cravinho was a PS MP at the time of Sócrates leadership. But, the PS responded to Mr Cravinho's statements and accuse him of having a "little affected memory", saying that all current anti-corruption legislation had the approval of the PS, adding that the party has "no fear or shame" about fighting corruption.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 28, 2021, 11:30:18 AM
2021 local elections update:

- In the PS, tensions continue. In Barcelos, this city will be very interesting to follow as the two main parties are completely divided internally, there's an ongoing war between the local PS and the district PS. (https://ominho.pt/mulheres-socialistas-de-barcelos-nao-aceitam-dois-homens-a-cabeca-nas-autarquicas/) The district party has chosen Alexandre Maciel as the deputy mayor candidate, but the local party wants a woman in the 2nd slot of the list. The district party is refusing to change the name and accuses the local party. The problem is that the district party is running the show in Barcelos and the local PS is so divided it could not make a decision on candidates;

- In the PSD, as usual, there's also problems. This time in Gaia city. The PSD candidate, António Oliveira, threatened to give up his candidacy if the local PSD-Gaia didn't stop rebuffing him. (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-04-27-Antonio-Oliveira-ameacou-desistir-da-candidatura-a-Camara-de-Gaia-c93e3c63) The local party was choosing candidates for parishes without Mr Oliveira approval, which violates party rules. The national party had to intervine, and a meeting was held between both sides in Gaia to calm down the situation. After the meeting, the PSD-Gaia accepted to include Mr Oliveira in the process. The media also reports that a PSD-Gaia insider told Mr Oliveira, after he was picked as candidate, that he didn't knew where he was getting into, as the PSD-Gaia was in chaos;

- CHEGA is also presenting more and more candidates. (https://observador.pt/2021/04/24/autarquicas-chega-diz-que-estara-ao-nivel-do-ps-e-do-psd-em-numero-de-candidaturas/) The party's aim is to have as much candidates as PS and PSD in cities across the country. The party also expects to present a high number of candidacies for the 3,085 parishes in play in the elections;

- In Oeiras, the PSD is expected to present their support for the reelection campaign of mayor Isaltino Morais. And, yesterday, a curious story came out from Oeiras: The city inaugurated an almost 18 meter obelisk in a park that cost 600,000 euros:

Quote
Portugal - Inauguration of the obelisk that cost € 600,000 to Oeiras residents
The mayor is accused of being "pharaonic", but Oeiras city hall says that the obelisk is a homage to poets, the liberty and democratization of culture, plus other stuff. The height of the obelisk, 17,59 meters, refers to the year 1759 when Oeiras became a municipality.

More updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 29, 2021, 09:35:58 AM
Another controversy as PSD candidate Suzana Garcia says she wants to "exterminate" BE and CHEGA:


Quote
PSD-Amadora reaffirms confidence in Suzana Garcia after advocating "for the end of Chega and BE"

Suzana Garcia, PSD/CDS candidate for the Lisbon suburb of Amadora, almost 180,000 inhabitants, is back in the headlines for a weird and controversial opinion in a TV show yesterday. In an interview in TVI, Ms Garcia said she wants to "exterminate" the extremes mainly BE and also CHEGA. BE is furious with her statements and are demanding Rui Rio to drop her as candidate. However, the PSD is defending her by saying that her word "exterminate" means election wipeout and that BE is just being "dishonest". The Social Democrats go on to say that BE has no moral to talk as they themselves have also advocated the death, for example, of the President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro.

Far from me defending Suzana Garcia, because she's crazy, but the BE, in my view, missed a perfect opportunity to be silent, as BE doesn't disapprove the idea of illegalizing CHEGA.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on April 30, 2021, 09:41:36 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-confianca-dos-portugueses-nas-instituicoes-e-no-combate-a-corrupcao-13628925.html)

Trust in institutions:

Presidency of the Republic: 65% Trust; 12% Distrust; 21% Average
Police: 58% Trust; 16% Distrust; 25% Average
Government: 42% Trust; 30% Distrust; 27% Average
Prosecutors (DA): 35% Distrust; 27% Trust; 32% Average
Parliament: 39% Distrust; 34% Trust; 26% Average
News media: 43% Distrust; 27% Trust; 29% Average
Political parties: 45% Distrust; 21% Trust; 32% Average
Courts and Judges: 62% Distrust; 15% Trust; 22% Average

Poll conducted between 22 and 25 April 2021. Polled 830 voters. MoE of 3.40%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 01, 2021, 07:39:31 AM
PAN has a new leader (unofficially) : Inês Sousa Real, PAN caucus leader, is the sole candidate for the leadership.


Quote
Political parties: List of Inês Sousa Real to the leadership is the only one presented to the PAN congress

Inês Sousa Real, PAN's current caucus leader, is the sole candidate for the party's leadership, to be elected on 5-6 June this year. The deadline for submitting candidacies was yesterday, and only she submitted a candidacy meaning she's, unofficially, the new elected leader of PAN. She will be the second woman leading a political party in the current Parliamentary term, the other being Catarina Martins of BE.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 01, 2021, 10:16:26 AM
Controversy as the government forces the civil requisition of a private estate to house people in confinement due to Covid-19:


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Covid-19: Zmar homeowners refuse to give up housing for isolation.

Odemira municipality, Beja district, is a place that is being hit hard by the virus. The village is the worst place in terms of infections in the country, in large part due to the big population of immigrants that work in agriculture fields and live in very poor conditions. Because of this situation, the government wants to disperse people infected with those who had contact with them and the Interior minister activated the civil requisition clause, and will use Zmar estate, a private estate with houses, to lodge people in confinement. However, this is being very criticized and many owners are refusing to leave their houses, challenging the government's order. Many live permanently in the estate and don't want other people in their houses. The lawyer's bar association says the government's decision could violate human rights and will make a position on this controversy.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 02, 2021, 07:07:56 AM
António Costa accuses Rui Rio of being a "wind vane", and Rio responds by accusing Costa of being a hypocrite:


Quote
"A wind vane at least has cardinal points, D. Rui Rio doesn't have any"

In an interview to JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio, PM Costa had harsh words for the PSD leader Rui Rio. Costa accused Rio of being a "wind vane" for his constant attacks towards the government and accused him of contaminating the PSD with CHEGA. He also brought back the Tancos air base scandal to attack Rio accusing him of making wrongly judgements for political gains. Mr Rui Rio didn't wait, and, on social media, trashed the PM:


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In a low-level interview, António Costa criticizes my 25 / April speech and says that the PSD wants to attack the independence of the judiciary. He says this, in the week that the European Parliament criticizes him for the politicization he made in the appointment of the European prosecutor. What hypocrisy!

Rui Rio uses this week vote on the European Parliament, where MEPs voted a report that condemned the Portuguese government (https://expresso.pt/sociedade/2021-04-29-Procurador-europeu-Parlamento-Europeu-continua-muito-preocupado-e-deixa-recado-ao-Governo-5986e36c) for their controversial appointment of the Portuguese EU prosecutor. MEP also accused Portugal of not giving answers about the controversy.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 03, 2021, 05:15:00 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-recuperacao-da-direita-e-a-avaliacao-ao-desempenho-dos-politicos-portugueses-13669561.html)

Vote share %:

38.2% PS (-1.5)
26.1% PSD (+2.5)
   9.2% BE (+0.6)
   7.2% CHEGA (-1.3)
   5.7% CDU (-0.3)
   4.9% IL (+0.1)
   2.7% PAN (-0.5)
   0.8% Livre (nc)
   0.4% CDS (-0.7)
   4.8% Others/Invalid (+1.2)

Preffered PM:

55% António Costa (+1)
18% Rui Rio (-1)
20% Neither (+1)
  2% Both (-2)
  6% Undecided (nc)

Government approval:

55% Approve (nc)
22% Disapprove (-2)
22% Average (+3)
  1% Undecided (-1)

President of the Republic approval:

71% Approve (-1)
10% Disapprove (-7)
17% Average (+8)
  2% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 22 and 25 April 2021. Polled 830 voters. MoE of 3.40%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 03, 2021, 02:51:18 PM
Mayor of Torres Vedras, Lisbon district, found dead at with home with a knife stroke to the neck:


Quote
Mayor of Torres Vedras found dead at home.

Horrible news this afternoon from Torres Vedras city, Lisbon district. The media is reporting that the incumbent mayor of Torres Vedras, Carlos Bernardes (PS), was found dead at his home with a neck cut done by a knife. The police is treating as a possible suicide as they believe that third party intervention is very unlikely and no signs of violence were found at his house. Mr Bernardes was running for reelection in the 2021 local elections. The PSD/CDS candidate for the city, Duarte Pacheco, has already reacted saying he's shocked and that he cannot believe this has happened. President Marcelo has also given his condolences to Mr Bernardes family.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 04, 2021, 05:48:29 PM
BE candidate for Gaia city, Porto district, accused of domestic violence:


Quote
Portugal - Left Bloc MP accused of domestic violence

Quote
The deputy and candidate of BE to the Municipality of Gaia, Luís Monteiro, is accused of aggression by a woman with whom he had a relationship. Bloco says they were unaware of domestic violence accusations within the party.

Rumors began to spread on Twitter on April 25th, with several alleged Left Bloc militants announcing their party disbandment following a case of domestic violence that the party leadership would have tried to hide. This Tuesday, Catarina Alves denounced that she was a victim of domestic violence on the part of MP Luís Monteiro, the party's candidate for leadership of the Gaia City Council.
(...)

Actually, I also heard/noticed that Twitter and Facebook were inundated, on the 25 April weekend, of reports that there was a huge numbers of BE members leaving the party because of accusations that the party leadership was covering up "accusations of sexual abuse and domestic violence", but I thought it was only Twitter bots just spreading fake news. Well, it seems that easn't the case after all.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 05, 2021, 05:23:17 AM
BE candidate for Gaia city, Porto district, accused of domestic violence:

So, the BE MP and candidate for Gaia city, Luís Monteiro, is rejecting the claims that he was abusive towards his ex-girlfriend, and if fact says that the truth was that the real victim was actually him (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/deputado-do-bloco-nega-acusacoes-de-violencia-domestica-e-diz-ter-sido-a-vitima) as he accuses his ex-girlfriend of being abusive towards him. He says he has a lot of witnesses


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 05, 2021, 01:59:15 PM
Poll of polls graphic:



With less than 5 months before the crucial midterm local elections, here's the state of parties: The PS and PSD are completely stabilized. The PSD has been hovering around the 26-27% mark since the 2019 elections, when they got just bellow 28%, while the PS was going downhill in January/February 2020, but since the pandemic started, the Socialists have been averaging between 38-39% (the PS got 36% in 2019). On the smaller parties, the rise of CHEGA, which is now basically tied with BE in the averages; CDU is stagnant at 5-6% but threatened by IL which is also growing. PAN is also stabilized at around 2%, while CDS is crashing, crashing and crashing.

A very stable party system.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 05, 2021, 05:49:37 PM
2021 local elections: PSD drops its support for Isaltino Morais and nominates the party's youth wing leader as candidate.


Quote
PSD drops support for Isaltino Morais. Alexandre Poço, leader of JSD, is the new bet

In the last few days, the media had been speculating the delay of the PSD regarding Oeiras and it was reported that the PSD leadership was having second doubts about supporting Isaltino Morais, mayor of Oeiras, in his reelection bid. The main reason was the Sócrates case ruling debacle as Isatino Morais was also, in the past, accused of corruption but the charges drooped as they had prescribed, just like José Sócrates. Mr Morais, nonetheless, spent a few years in jail for other crimes. This would create an embarrassment for the party as the PSD is trashing, almost daily, the PS because of Sócrates and supporting Morais would make them look as hypocrites. The party, therefore, chose the youth wing leader of the party (JSD), Alexandre Poço, as candidate. This evening, in an interview on RTP, Rio said he choose Mr Poço because the PSD had to have a candidate of its own in a city like Oeiras, but acknowledged that winning Oeiras is very difficult.

There are other interesting updates about the elections:

- In Marinha Grande, the PS is having a "civil war". Out of the blue, the deputy mayor of Marinha Grande announced he would run as... the PSD candidate (https://www.dn.pt/politica/marinha-grande-vice-socialista-troca-de-trincheira-e-lidera-lista-do-psd-13684028.html) in that city. This news shocked the local PS and the party demands and explanation from the still deputy mayor of the city. The two main parties in Marinha Grande are PS and CDU. PSD only polled 4% in 2017;

- In Figueira da Foz, the tabu of Santana Lopes possible run continues to "haunt" the PS and PSD. There is a movement supporting him and he gives almost daily hints and ideas for Figueira da Foz. His movement says they have polling putting Santana well ahead of the incumbent PS and PSD. He's expected to make a statement about a possible run this week. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/05/politica/noticia/santana-fala-semana-candidatura-figueira-1961388) We'll see;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 06, 2021, 05:32:36 AM
The Odemira Covid-19 outbreak continues to dominate the headlines as the government is under fire for approving "containers" for immigrants:


Quote
Government approved “immigrants stacked in containers” (and the pandemic uncovered what no one wanted to see)

The government has been under fire, lately, for the pandemic and social situation in Odemira, and a bit on the rest of Alentejo. The Covid-19 outbreak in the village of Odemira, Beja district, is uncovering a dramatic social situation as immigrants who work in agricultural fields are living in containers with no conditions and stacked with each other. Around 6,000 immigrants are living in these conditions and the government is being accused of passing a bill, in 2019, that allowed agricultural companies to set up temporary homes for immigrants, that ended up being "inhumane" and unwholesome. The PSD opposition is blaming the government, with PSD leader Rui Rio calling the situation "a disgrace for Portugal", and others, like Ana Gomes, say the government had to know the situation but preferred to ignore it. In fact, the police has been investigating complaints of slavery, bad working conditions in the Odemira area for more than 2 years, but nothing concrete came out of it.

Controversy as the government forces the civil requisition of a private estate to house people in confinement due to Covid-19:

Related to this is also the "Zmar controversy", as the government forced the civil requisition of Zmar private estate to lodge some immigrants because of the pandemic outbreak. Owners of houses in the estate are furious and accuse the government damaging private properties. The government was able to lodge some immigrants during last night, (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/odemira-cerca-de-duas-dezenas-de-migrantes-transferidos-para-o-zmar) but the lawyer of the house owners has filled a Court complaint against the civil requestion imposed by the government. Owners are still protesting in the entrance of the estate. The lawyer adds that authorities basically forced its entrance into the estate (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/06/sociedade/noticia/autoridades-forcaram-entrada-zmar-apesar-disponibilidade-empreendimento-colaborar-1961436) with a heavy police presence in the area at 2 in the morning.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 06, 2021, 07:54:26 PM
2021 local elections: Intercampus poll for Porto Santo island, Madeira, 5,500 inhabitants, PSD incumbent:  (https://www.santanafm.com.pt/corrida-a-camara-do-porto-santomantem-tudo-por-decidir)

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

31.9% PSD/CDS (-9.7)
31.0% PS (-6.0)
20.6% Independent (new)
  9.2% Others (+4.5)
  7.3% Blank/Invalid (+4.0)

Poll conducted between 15 and 23 April 2021.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 07, 2021, 04:27:44 AM
Related to this is also the "Zmar controversy", as the government forced the civil requisition of Zmar private estate to lodge some immigrants because of the pandemic outbreak. Owners of houses in the estate are furious and accuse the government damaging private properties. The government was able to lodge some immigrants during last night, (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/odemira-cerca-de-duas-dezenas-de-migrantes-transferidos-para-o-zmar) but the lawyer of the house owners has filled a Court complaint against the civil requestion imposed by the government. Owners are still protesting in the entrance of the estate. The lawyer adds that authorities basically forced its entrance into the estate (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/06/sociedade/noticia/autoridades-forcaram-entrada-zmar-apesar-disponibilidade-empreendimento-colaborar-1961436) with a heavy police presence in the area at 2 in the morning.

JUST IN: A Court has accepted the owners complaint and now demands that the government removes all immigrants from the private estate Zmar.  (https://multinews.sapo.pt/noticias/tribunal-suspende-decisao-do-governo-e-ordena-retirada-de-imigrantes-do-zmar/)

A Court has accepted the complaint by the owners of houses in Zmar estate and strikes down the government's civil requisition. The Court now demands that all immigrants sent there by authorities need to be removed. The police is being notified as we speak. No reaction yet from the government.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 07, 2021, 08:46:04 AM
Economic Recovery Plan: Costa to bring back Troika policies for the NHS.


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PRR recovers measures proposed by the troika for the reform of the NHS.

Portugal was the first EU country to sent the Economic Recovery Plan (PRR), in order to get EU funds, to the EU Commission, but it was surrounded in controversy. The document sent didn't had any details of policies or reforms and a the media started pressuring the government to release details and accused Costa of "hiding" the reforms. Pressured by Brussels, the government conceded and released the details of the reforms and they are creating more controversy. One of them is more control of the government to professional bars like lawyers, doctors, etc. But, today, another reform was revealed: Costa is to reform the NHS using the troika bailout reforms. The plan is to concentrate emergency rooms in the metro areas of Lisbon and Porto, thus hurting more rural areas, imposing financial targets for hospitals and more control of the NHS by the Finance minister. These proposals are already creating furious reactions from Hospitals staffs and managements, but the government says that the policies are only "hospital management reforms" and aren't similar at all with the Troika ones.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 07, 2021, 01:57:45 PM
Row between Costa and Rio intensifies as Rio "recalls" the 2003 wiretaps that implicated Costa:


Quote
Exchange of accusations between Rio and Costa rise by tone.

The PM and the PSD leader are currently in a back and forward row, and it looks personal. After Costa called Rio a "wind vane", meaning he has no values or principles, Rio responded that Costa had a "posture unworthy of a Prime Minister", and of being vulgar. But on an interview to RTP, Rio raised the stakes and after being questioned about Costa's attacks toward him, mainly about the Justice system, he accused Costa of having no moral to attack him on that matter because Costa himself tried to obstruct justice in 2003, adding that the tapes are on Youtube for everyone to hear them. In fact, during the controversial 2003 Casa Pia pedophile scandal, Costa was caught trying to influence prosecutors, and others, in order to prevent the arrest of a PS MP involved in the case.  (https://poligrafo.sapo.pt/fact-check/rui-rio-ha-escutas-telefonicas-da-casa-pia-em-que-antonio-costa-tenta-interferir-na-justica-e-verdade) Pundits suggest that the relation between Rio and Costa is toxic now and probably irreparable.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 08, 2021, 07:33:26 AM
Eduardo Cabrita in limbo, again: Interior Minister is facing demands for his resignation, and lashes out against CDS calling them a "shipwrecked party".


Quote
Eduardo Cabrita says that the CDS-PP "is a shipwrecked party"

The current Zmar debacle and the working conditions of several immigrants in the Alentejo region, is putting, again, the Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita in hot waters. His facing demands for his resignation from all parties on the right, but when asked about the CDS demand, Mr Cabrita called CDS a "shipwrecked party" and "poor CDS". CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, called Mr Cabrita a bully and not worthy of the post he occupies. About the Zmar Court decision, in which a Court accepted the owners complaint against the government, Mr Cabrita said the government didn't received, yet, the Court's decision but will work to defend their case in Court. A legal battle on this case could be starting. Nonetheless, some immigrants are already leaving the Zmar estate and being housed in other locations.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 09, 2021, 10:38:49 AM
Another controversy as secretary of the Environment, João Galamba, labels a RTP investigative program as "manure" and a "disgusting thing" on social media:


Quote
Government: Secretary of State calls RTP's information program “manure” and “disgusting thing”

The secretary of the environment, João Galamba, is back in the headlines because of another controversy. In a comment about RTP's investigative program, Sexta às 9, on social media, Mr Galamba labelled the program as "manure" and a "disgusting thing". This tweet response was rapidly deleted but many twitter users made printscreen of his tweet and it became viral. Mr Galamba and RTP are silenced about this controversy, while CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, has demanded the resignation of João Galamba. This isn't the first time Mr Galamba and RTP's Sexta às 9 have clashes: the program investigates shady government deals and their focus, lately, has been surrounding the lithium, hydrogen and dam deals that have passed through Mr Galamba desk. For some time now, Galamba labels the program as "fake news" and misleading and there's a personal feud between him and the program's presenter, Sandra Felgueiras.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 09, 2021, 05:27:18 PM
2021 local elections update:

- Santana Lopes is in. Santana Lopes will run, as an independent, for the city of Figueira da Foz. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/09/politica/noticia/santana-lopes-candidato-camara-municipal-figueira-foz-1961850) He was mayor of the city between 1997-2001 and then ran for Lisbon and also won. This announcement was expected as he has been very active on social media and there's already a movement supporting him. He will face the incumbent PS mayor of the city and the PSD candidate. A race to watch, no doubt.

- In Viseu, the PSD is nervous. After the sudden death of the mayor Almeida Henriques, the party feels orphaned and they still haven't found a candidate. (https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/734001/viseu-ps-acredita-na-conquista-do-cavaquistao-ao-psd?seccao=Portugal_i) The final choice seems to rest on two names: Fernando Ruas, former mayor 1989-2013, or João Paulo Gouveia, the leader of the local PSD. Polls are being conducted to see who's the strongest, but the PS is hopeful of creating a surprise in Viseu. The city never voted PS in any election since 1974, so a PS win here would be an "earthquake". Another race to watch.

- In Madeira, the independent mayor of São Vicente, will run for reelection as the PSD/CDS candidate (https://observador.pt/2021/05/09/presidente-da-camara-de-sao-vicente-recandidata-se-pela-coligacao-psd-cds/). The current mayor is very popular and was reelected in 2017 with almost 80% of the votes. A win here for the PSD would help the goal of trying to regain control in local governments in the islands, after their disastrous 2013 and 2017 results;

- In Coimbra city, the PS will run with incumbent mayor Manuel Machado, while the PSD candidate, José Manuel Silva will lead a coalition of 7 parties (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/07/politica/noticia/jose-manuel-silva-encabeca-coligacao-sete-partidos-camara-coimbra-1961658): PSD/CDS/PPM/Volt/RIR/Alliance/NC. However, there are currently tensions in the local CDS against the national CDS, as the local branch doesn't want to support Mr Manuel Silva but the national party is forcing their support. The independent movement, "Citizens for Coimbra" (CpC) has also presented their candidate: Jorge Gouveia Monteiro. (https://observador.pt/2021/05/09/autarquicas-jorge-gouveia-monteiro-e-cabeca-de-lista-pelo-movimento-cidadaos-por-coimbra/) In 2017, this independent list got 7% of the votes but failed to win a councillor by just 48 votes. Like in 2017, BE will support the CpC movement;

- The PS is starting to announce more and more candidates, but there a few places were there are still tensions. In Barcelos, the local PS is still in infighting and the national party could be forced to intervene. And in Porto city, the party hasn't presented a candidate yet, and the choice is still in the hands of António Costa;

- The PSD mayor of Vila Nova de Famalicão, Braga, around 140,000 inhabitants, will not run for reelection. (https://observador.pt/2021/05/10/mais-uma-dor-de-cabeca-para-rio-paulo-cunha-nao-sera-recandidato-a-famalicao/) Rio asked him to run again but he refused, so Familicão is another city in play. However, the city has become more and more aligned with the PSD, even in general elections, but no doubt it will be yet another race to watch.

More updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 10, 2021, 06:20:21 AM
Ventura sits in Court for calling a familly "thugs":


Quote
Politics - André Ventura begins to be tried for offenses to a family of the neighborhood of Jamaica

CHEGA leader André Ventura will sit, after toady, in Court as the trial for his statements that a family living in a precarious neighborhood in Seixal, Jamaica neighborhood, starts today. Ventura called a family that took a photo with President Marcelo, when Marcelo visited the neighborhood, "thugs" during a debate for last January presidential elections. The family in question filed a Court complaint against CHEGA and Ventura for offenses against the family's honor and image rights. Ventura, in the debate, also accused the family of attacking a police station and divided society between "good and bad Portuguese".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 10, 2021, 12:31:52 PM
Interesting that Pedro Santana Lopes has actually decided to run. What are his chances? Does his Aliança party even exist anymore? Their result in 2019 was... a big flop.

Also lol, I have lost the count of times Ventura has got sued for offensive comments.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 10, 2021, 12:57:53 PM
Interesting that Pedro Santana Lopes has actually decided to run. What are his chances? Does his Aliança party even exist anymore? Their result in 2019 was... a big flop.

Also lol, I have lost the count of times Ventura has got sued for offensive comments.

Of all the places in the country where Santana has some kind of a chance is in Figueira da Foz. There seems to be a "somewhat" cult around him there. After he left his party that he created himself, there was an approach from the PSD and Rio, and for a while it seemed that he was going to be a PSD candidate somewhere. Of course, he said he wasn't interested because of the pandemic, but, looking back on that, it seems to me, at least, that what he wanted was the PSD to beg him to run. But, the PSD didn't ate his "begging" and basically said "Oh, you don't want to run? Ok. Bye!". He really wanted to run in Figueira da Foz, but, although there's a "cult" around him there, the local PSD doesn't like him as his tenure as mayor was marked by lots of debt, and the local PSD paid a political price for it. He has a chance because of how popular he is in the city, but, is it enough to win it? I don't know, but it's a race to watch.

Yes, his Aliança party still exists but it's basically a zombie party, right now. They will run some candidates in the local elections, but from what I'm seeing, they are forging a lot of coalitions with the PSD in order to survive. In 2019, Santana didn't offered a single thing other than himself, literally, and his party looked like a PSD 2.0 but with less quality. The result was obvious.

About Ventura, of course, he's already turning this into a political trial as he says "they" want to prove he's a racist and force the ban of the party by the Courts. We'll see how this trial ends.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 10, 2021, 01:20:01 PM
Minister of Environment concedes that the words of his secretary were "inappropriate":


Quote
Minister of Environment admits that João Galamba used “inappropriate language” when he called “manure” to RTP program

The minister of Environment, João Matos Fernandes, became the first government official to comment on the controversial words of environment/energy secretary, João Galamba. The minister said the words of Mr Galamba were "inappropriate" and that his secretary acknowledged his mistake by deleting his tweet. Mr Galamba accuse a RTP investigative program of being "manure" and "disgusting" in a tweet last Saturday evening. PM Costa was also questioned about this in a press conference with the Argentinian President, but Costa declined to comment.

RTP also reacted to the word of the Energy secretary João Galamba, and the public TV network "repudiates" the words of the the government member (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-05-10-Direcao-da-RTP-repudia-declaracoes-de-Joao-Galamba-sobre-programa-Sexta-as-Nove-bcbea3cb) and they are very serious because of his office. They also add that the words of the Mr Galamba "disrespect the freedom of information".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on May 10, 2021, 03:47:09 PM
Interesting that Pedro Santana Lopes has actually decided to run. What are his chances? Does his Aliança party even exist anymore? Their result in 2019 was... a big flop.

Also lol, I have lost the count of times Ventura has got sued for offensive comments.

Of all the places in the country where Santana has some kind of a chance is in Figueira da Foz. There seems to be a "somewhat" cult around him there. After he left his party that he created himself, there was an approach from the PSD and Rio, and for a while it seemed that he was going to be a PSD candidate somewhere. Of course, he said he wasn't interested because of the pandemic, but, looking back on that, it seems to me, at least, that what he wanted was the PSD to beg him to run. But, the PSD didn't ate his "begging" and basically said "Oh, you don't want to run? Ok. Bye!". He really wanted to run in Figueira da Foz, but, although there's a "cult" around him there, the local PSD doesn't like him as his tenure as mayor was marked by lots of debt, and the local PSD paid a political price for it. He has a chance because of how popular he is in the city, but, is it enough to win it? I don't know, but it's a race to watch.

Yes, his Aliança party still exists but it's basically a zombie party, right now. They will run some candidates in the local elections, but from what I'm seeing, they are forging a lot of coalitions with the PSD in order to survive. In 2019, Santana didn't offered a single thing other than himself, literally, and his party looked like a PSD 2.0 but with less quality. The result was obvious.

About Ventura, of course, he's already turning this into a political trial as he says "they" want to prove he's a racist and force the ban of the party by the Courts. We'll see how this trial ends.

Oh, I don't think I had realized that Santana Lopes has left Aliança. It does not surprise me in the slightest it is now a zombie party then. I assume he decided that trying to reapproach himself with the PSD made more sense than continuing with a personal party that was did not even manage to enter the Assembly of the Republic. Speaking of his personal popularity or, as you call it, "cult" in Figueira da Foz, what percentage of the votes did Aliança take in the city in 2019? That would be useful.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 10, 2021, 05:20:36 PM
Oh, I don't think I had realized that Santana Lopes has left Aliança. It does not surprise me in the slightest it is now a zombie party then. I assume he decided that trying to reapproach himself with the PSD made more sense than continuing with a personal party that was did not even manage to enter the Assembly of the Republic. Speaking of his personal popularity or, as you call it, "cult" in Figueira da Foz, what percentage of the votes did Aliança take in the city in 2019? That would be useful.

Exactly, he left the Aliança with the argument that the party would disappear with him and that it needed to breakaway from him. (Yeah, sure, that was the problem ;)) And regarding his recent approach to the PSD, the "oranges" don't have the patience they used to have towards Santana, so when he tried the "no, but you know I want it, right? tactic", the PSD just threw him under the bus. Well, in 2019, and Figueira da Foz probably gave the strongest showing for his party, the Aliança got... 2.6% (728 votes out of 28,000); In the urban area, he got 3.4% and was the fifth party, however. Not a lot, to put mildly. But local elections have other characteristics as it's much more personalised and not partisan. We'll see, I'm curious to see polling from Figueira.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 12, 2021, 11:15:07 AM
BE candidate for Gaia city, Porto district, accused of domestic violence:

So, the BE MP and candidate for Gaia city, Luís Monteiro, is rejecting the claims that he was abusive towards his ex-girlfriend, and if fact says that the truth was that the real victim was actually him (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/deputado-do-bloco-nega-acusacoes-de-violencia-domestica-e-diz-ter-sido-a-vitima) as he accuses his ex-girlfriend of being abusive towards him. He says he has a lot of witnesses

After all the controversy, the BE candidate for Gaia city drops out from the race in order to not hurt the party's chances:


Quote
Blocist Luís Monteiro withdraws candidacy for Câmara de Gaia

The BE candidate for Gaia city, MP Luís Monteiro, has dropped out from the mayoral race in Gaia city. Mr Monteiro is accused by his former girlfriend of domestic violence, but he refutes the accusation saying that the real victim was him as his ex-girlfriend was abusive to him. He already filed a complaint against her. He now drops out from the race, as he doesn't want to hurt the party's chances, but will remain as a MP. However, this story is creating a lot of tension within BE with many, within the party, accusing the leadership of "protecting" Mr Monteiro. The media has also been accusing BE of being "hypocrites" (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/09/politica/editorial/violencia-domestica-be-problema-1961792) and of hurting the fight against domestic violence.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 12, 2021, 02:41:51 PM
UCP-CESOP poll for RTP/Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/legislativas-se-eleicoes-fossem-hoje-venceria-o-partido-socialista_v1319558)

Vote share %:

38% PS (+3)
28% PSD (+5)
   8% BE (nc)
   6% CHEGA (-3)
   5% CDU (-1)
   5% IL (-2)
   3% CDS (+1)
   3% PAN (+1)
   0% Livre (-1)
   4% Others/Invalid (-3)

Left vs Right:

54% PS+BE+CDU+PAN
42% PSD+CHEGA+IL+CDS

Poll conducted between 3 and 7 May 2021. Polled 1,123 voters. MoE of 2.90%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 13, 2021, 09:29:06 AM
More interesting data from the UCP-CESOP poll for RTP/Público newspaper:  (https://observador.pt/2021/05/13/metade-dos-portugueses-quer-remodelar-o-governo-e-eduardo-cabrita-e-o-mais-votado-para-sair/)

Q1: Does António Costa cabinet need a reshuffle?

51% Yes
31% No
18% Undecided

Q2: Which cabinet ministers should be sacked?

19% Eduardo Cabrita (Internal Affairs)
11% Marta Temido (Health)
  7% Francisca Van Dunem (Justice)
  6% Tiago Brandão Rodrigues (Education)
57% Others/None/Undecided

Q3: Do you think the current government will last until 2023?

92% Yes
   4% No
  4% Undecided

Q4: What kind of government agreements should the PS persue?

55% The current one with possible agreements with all parties
14% An agreement with the PSD
13% An agreement with BE-CDU
18% Undecided

Q5: Who should the government negotiate the 2021 budget with? (more than one option available)

42% PSD
28% BE
20% CDU
   5% Others
24% Undecided

Poll conducted between 3 and 7 May 2021. Polled 1,123 voters. MoE of 2.90%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 13, 2021, 01:40:55 PM
Big controversy as no one assumes the blame for the violent clashes between the police and Sporting fans last Tuesday night:


Quote
From the Government to Sporting, everyone "shakes the water from the cloak". Party was reported to Lisbon city hall as a “demonstration”

The violent clashes, Tuesday evening, between police forces and Sporting fans is creating a lot of controversy because no one is assuming the blame for allowing so many people to join in the streets. Many accuse the Interior minister, Eduardo Cabrita, of not doing a thing, while other accuse Lisbon city hall of also being silenced, and other accuse Sporting CP of also doing nothing. This was expected and for a few days, as it was reported that Lisbon city and Sporting were negotiating how the celebrations would be. But, the confusion is now total. Sporting Youth fans club said they sent, last week, an email to Lisbon city hall to announce a "demonstration" in front of the stadium, Lisbon city sent the email to the police but then disagreements between the police and health authorities emerged. Sporting wanted a bus route with their players on the streets, which was accepted by health authorities but rejected by the police. Then, the Sports secretary had knowledge of the meetings, but wasn't aware of the outcome, and all of this culminated in the violence of Tuesday night. The PM also announced the opening of an inquiry regarding the police conduct on that night.

Health specialists blame authorities for not planning a thing but are divided on the impacts. Some warn that the massive number of people on the streets that night could make Covid cases skyrock in Lisbon and spread to the whole country, while others say it's unlikely. However, they advise people who were celebrating on the streets to be tested for Covid.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 14, 2021, 11:43:42 AM
Armed Forces reforms: Former President Ramalho Eanes and 28 former military chiefs sign a letter against the reforms proposed by the government.


Quote
Cry of revolt against the reform of the Armed Forces proposed by the Government

In the last few weeks, many Armed Forces officers and Chiefs have been trashing the government's reforms for the Armed Forces. The reform will be voted in Parliament next week, and it will likely pass as it has the support of PS and PSD (82% of seats), but it is creating a lot of controversy. The proposed reform increases the powers of the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces (CEMGFA) in order to speed up decisions during military operations. This change will, therefore, reduce the powers of the high ranks of the Navy, Army and Air Force. This is infuriating many army officers as they accuse the government and the two main parties of "politicizing" the Armed Forces and also accuse the Minister of Defense, João Gomes Cravinho, of ruling by "threat" and of persuing "degraded political exercises". Because of this, a group of 28 former Army officials, headed by former President Ramalho Eanes, signed a letter to demand that reforms be stopped and for a reassessment from the government. However, it's unlikey a retraction from the government or from the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 14, 2021, 01:31:40 PM
2021 local elections: Campaign posters.

Viana do Castelo:

PS - Socialist Party

Quote
Believe in the future. Luís Nobre

PSD/CDS coalition

Quote
Loving Viana. It's now Viana. Eduardo Teixeira

Lisbon:

BE - Left Bloc

Quote
A city in common. Beatriz Gomes Dias

IL - Liberal Initiative

Quote
Plan B... Bruno Horta Soares. Lisbon more Liberal

Barreiro:

PS - Socialist Party

Quote
2021. Growing up in Barreiro


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 16, 2021, 04:47:41 PM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

39.4% PS (-0.2)
27.4% PSD (-0.4)
  8.0% CHEGA (+0.3)
  6.6% BE (+0.4)
  5.0% CDU (-0.2)
  2.5% CDS (+0.5)
  2.4% PAN (+0.3)
  2.2% IL (-0.3)
  6.5% Others/Invalid (-0.4)

Left vs Right:

53.4% PS+BE+CDU+PAN
40.1% PSD+CHEGA+CDS+IL

Poll conducted between 10 and 13 May 2021. Polled 1,008 voters. MoE of 3.07%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 17, 2021, 03:28:15 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://observador.pt/2021/05/17/psd-abaixo-do-resultado-conseguido-nas-legislativas-de-2019-distancia-para-ps-ja-ultrapassa-16-pontos-percentuais/)

Vote share %:

37.9% PS (+1.7)
21.7% PSD (-1.6)
  8.3% BE (-1.1)
  8.3% CHEGA (-1.1)
  5.5% CDU (+0.3)
  4.8% PAN (nc)
  4.2% IL (-0.8 )
  2.9% CDS (-0.2)
  1.3% Livre (+0.9)
  2.0% Others (+0.5)
  3.1% Invalid/Blank (+1.6)

Left vs Right:

57.8% PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre
37.1% PSD+CHEGA+IL+CDS

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.3 António Costa (nc)
3.0 Catarina Martins (nc)
2.8 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.8 André Silva (-0.1)
2.8 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.1)
2.0 André Ventura (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 5 and 11 May 2021. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 17, 2021, 02:23:57 PM
Tensions in the PSD: As polling continues to show a wide gap between PS and PSD, Rio is being pressured to be more harsh against Costa.


Quote
Rui Rio: Rio is preparing to harden opposition to the Government

Polling numbers varies from company to company, but the PSD is failing to increase its vote share in the polls, as voting intentions are basically stagnant with the Socialists having an 11-12% vote lead over the Social Democrats in the averages. But this is creating, once again, tensions within the party as fears for the result in the fall local elections grow. The recent scandals and controversies surrounding the government are leading many high profile PSD members to demand the party to step up their opposition against the government. Former Madeira President Alberto João Jardim, an ally of Rio, wrote an opinion piece (https://www.jm-madeira.pt/opinioes/ver/4969/Novo_rumo_para_o_PSD_nacional) saying the party needs to "wake up" and "change now", criticizing that the party is confusing "patriotism" with not "rocking" the government in a time of crisis. He pressures Rio to be more tough against Costa, which he accuses of being an "European Nicolás Maduro". Rio responded to these claims in a visit to the Holocaust Museum in Porto city, saying he heard the words of Mr Jardim and that he will accept his advise.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 18, 2021, 10:04:18 AM
Porto mayor Rui Moreira will go to trial because of the "Selminho case", a judge decided today:


Quote
Selminho case. Rui Moreira goes to trial for malfeasance.

A judge in a Porto city Court ruled, this afternoon, that incumbent Porto mayor Rui Moreira will face trial because of his involvement in the Selminho case. He's accused of crimes of malfeasance and abuse of power and could be forced out of office. The judge says that the DA has a strong case against the mayor and that Moreira has to face a trial in a Court of law. The DA will now ask for the removal of Mr Moreira from office. Mr Moreira is expected to run for another term in this fall local elections and this could shake up the race in Porto city, we'll see. Curious that in this election year has the two main cities, Lisbon and Porto, are involved in corruption cases and investigations: Lisbon with the "Salgado case" and Porto with the "Selminho case".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 18, 2021, 01:00:54 PM
Porto mayor Rui Moreira reacts to the Court ruling and says it will not affect his reelection reflection:  (https://www.jn.pt/justica/rui-moreira-ida-a-julgamento-nao-me-tira-razao-13734156.html)



Rui Moreira's press conference in Porto city hall, this afternoon.

In a press conference where Mr Moreira was quite emotional and also nervous, Porto mayor Rui Moreira, said that the ruling does not take away his reason and adds he's convinced of his innocence, pressing, also, that he's being insulted with infamy and that he's stable as a rock to continue to fight for Porto's citizens as mayor. He said the ruling didn't have any grounds and he was sorry for it appearing, again, just before an election. He also pressed again with his defense that he didn't benefit his family in any way and that he considers any accusation an insult about this matter. While concluding his remarks, it was clear that Mr Moreira was very nervous and emotional as he pointed his late father example and said he will not stop fighting in behalf of Porto city, finalizing that the ruling will not hurt his reflection about a possible reelection campaign in the fall local elections.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 18, 2021, 05:22:20 PM
President Marcelo is in Guinea-Bissau for a State visit and, well, he was received like a Superstar:



After minute 1:30, you can see the massive crowds around him. This was almost reminiscent of the visits of Marcelo Caetano to the colonies during the late 60's, early 70's.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 19, 2021, 09:38:31 AM
Update in the 2021 local elections:

- In Guarda, there is a split in the local PSD. The leader of the local branch of the party, and former deputy mayor, Sérgio Costa, resigned and will run also for mayor against the incumbent mayor of his own party (https://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/guarda/guarda/ex-vice-presidente-da-camara-da-guarda-concorre-como-independente-13735819.html). The local party was very divided between who should be the candidate and this split in the PSD could benefit the PS, who lost this city to the PSD in 2013;

- In Barcelos, divisions in the PS and PSD continue. If in the PSD there's a climate of "rotten peace", in the PS things continue bad. The relations between the local and national party continue really tense and now, the PS parish president of Barcelos city will run as an Independent for mayor (https://nsemanario.pt/2021/05/04/jose-paulo-teixeira-candidata-se-a-camara-de-barcelos-como-independente/), which could split the PS vote, but also the PSD vote as many of its members don't like their own candidate;

- In Viseu, and a bit as expected, the PSD choose former Viseu mayor Fernando Ruas as their candidate for the fall elections (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-05-19-Rio-volta-a-apostar-em-Fernando-Ruas-para-Viseu-12631e76). This was always the favourite pick for Rui Rio as Mr Ruas is an ally of his. The official announcement is expected this afternoon, but it's unclear if this will not create tensions in the local PSD-Viseu as the party is a bit nervous about the outcome in Viseu city;

Also, more campaign posters for the 2021 local elections campaign from across the country:

Oeiras: PS - Socialist Party

Quote
Doing more is possible. Fernando Curto. Oeiras 2021

Oeiras: IL - Liberal Initiative

Quote
Would you entrust your household bills to this man? Isaltino is not inevitable.

Torres Vedras - PSD/CDS/PPM coalition

Quote
Duarte Pacheco. Affirm Torres Vedras.

Sintra - CHEGA

Quote
Sintra's turn comes. Nuno Afonso

Posters from the Ephemera Archive twitter account.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Geoffrey Howe on May 19, 2021, 10:35:34 AM
Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 19, 2021, 10:52:02 AM
Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

Yes, Avis is the big Communist bastion as it has voted for the PCP, and its candidates, in all elections bar 2001 and 2021, but the PCP strength is falling election after election. In the January 2021 Presidential election, the PCP candidate got just 28% of the votes and President Marcelo became the first center-right candidate to win in Avis with 43% of the votes. Ventura also got 16% of the votes. In the 2019 general elections, the PCP also achieved their worst results till date with just 39% against the 30% of the PS.

The incumbent PCP mayor, which can run for another term, will very likely be reelected but it will be interesting to see his vote share and margins. Many predict that the PCP could suffer a huge blow in the fall local elections.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Geoffrey Howe on May 19, 2021, 10:55:42 AM
Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

Yes, Avis is the big Communist bastion as it has voted for the PCP, and its candidates, in all elections bar 2001 and 2021, but the PCP strength is falling election after election. In the January 2021 Presidential election, the PCP candidate got just 28% of the votes and President Marcelo became the first center-right candidate to win in Avis with 43% of the votes. Ventura also got 16% of the votes. In the 2019 general elections, the PCP also achieved their worst results till date with just 39% against the 30% of the PS.

The incumbent PCP mayor, which can run for another term, will very likely be reelected but it will be interesting to see his vote share and margins. Many predict that the PCP could suffer a huge blow in the fall local elections.

It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 19, 2021, 11:01:54 AM
It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Geoffrey Howe on May 19, 2021, 11:11:37 AM
It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional

Thanks. I see that in Maranhão (within Avis), the Communists got 61% in 2019! And Ferreira won the Presidential there too in 2021.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 19, 2021, 11:22:07 AM
It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional

Thanks. I see that in Maranhão (within Avis), the Communists got 61% in 2019! And Ferreira won the Presidential there too in 2021.


By just one vote in 2021, but a win is a win. Also, before 2013, Maranhão was an "independent" parish with less than 100 inhabitants. The PSD/CDS government (2011-2015) merged a lot of parishes in 2013 and the total number of parishes was reduced from 4,260 to 3,092. In that parish, the CDU (coalition between PCP and PEV) had normally 80-90% vote shares, but after the merger in 2013, however, the CDU share drooped considerably as the other merged parish, Alcórrego, isn't as strong for the PCP as is Maranhão.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Geoffrey Howe on May 19, 2021, 11:30:20 AM
It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional

Thanks. I see that in Maranhão (within Avis), the Communists got 61% in 2019! And Ferreira won the Presidential there too in 2021.


By just one vote in 2021, but a win is a win. Also, before 2013, Maranhão was an "independent" parish with less than 100 inhabitants. The PSD/CDS government (2011-2015) merged a lot of parishes in 2013 and the total number of parishes was reduced from 4,260 to 3,092. In that parish, the CDU (coalition between PCP and PEV) had normally 80-90% vote shares, but after the merger in 2013, however, the CDU share drooped considerably as the other merged parish, Alcórrego, isn't as strong for the PCP as is Maranhão.

Are there any reasons you know of why Maranhão is so left-wing even by Avis standards?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 19, 2021, 11:47:07 AM
Are there any reasons you know of why Maranhão is so left-wing even by Avis standards?

I don't think there's a specific reason why Maranhão is more left-wing, but the parish fits in the Alentejo pattern that rural parishes are more aligned with the PCP, while urban parishes, also in the Alentejo, are more aligned with the PS, and in some cases even with the PSD. This can be explained by the 1974 revolution and the events of the "Expropriations" in the aftermath of the revolution, where vast agricultural fields/ranches in rural Alentejo were stripped from their owners by workers.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 19, 2021, 12:17:29 PM
On the eve of BE's convention, the party is investigating reports of harassment and stalking within the party:


Quote
Portugal - Bloc investigates allegations of harassment and stalking in the party

After the accusation that a BE MP and mayoral candidate, now withdrawn, was abusive and harassed a woman he had a relation with, BE is facing yet another accusation of a woman who says a 62 year old man in the party's structures harassed her and that he stalked her. Other women also say that this man would harass them on social media by creating fake accounts on the pretext of "political work". BE is now investigating these claims, while the woman in question filed a complaint with the police. The party also had to refute rumours that the man in question was a BE MP. This happens as BE is set to hold their convention, this weekend, in Matosinhos, Porto.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Farmlands on May 20, 2021, 03:14:18 AM
Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

There's little reason to vote PCP if you're socially progressive when you have the Left Bloc. Plus, like in Ireland, there's been a big change on attitudes towards social issues, propelled by younger people. And with Chega now in the mix in some rural areas, I don't see the PCP performing better any time soon.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Geoffrey Howe on May 20, 2021, 04:07:28 AM
Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

There's little reason to vote PCP if you're socially progressive when you have the Left Bloc. Plus, like in Ireland, there's been a big change on attitudes towards social issues, propelled by younger people. And with Chega now in the mix in some rural areas, I don't see the PCP performing better any time soon.

But I suppose socially conservative 'olds' as people say on Atlas are still committed to the Communists.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 20, 2021, 05:03:17 AM
Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

There's little reason to vote PCP if you're socially progressive when you have the Left Bloc. Plus, like in Ireland, there's been a big change on attitudes towards social issues, propelled by younger people. And with Chega now in the mix in some rural areas, I don't see the PCP performing better any time soon.

But I suppose socially conservative 'olds' as people say on Atlas are still committed to the Communists.

Yes, the PCP is becoming an "older" party with a considerable part of their voters, according to polling, being above 65 years old. In fact, the older you are in Portugal, the more likely you are to vote in leftwing parties, as rightwing parties perform much better with younger voters. I think that PAN could also threaten BE is terms of social progressive policies, and the current controversy in BE about harassment within the party could damage the party in the eyes of more progressive voters. PS could also benefit from this as it's becoming more and more progressive and the more conservative wings within the party are dying out.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 20, 2021, 06:13:58 AM
Aximage poll for Paços de Ferreira - PS incumbent, 57,000 inhabitants:  (https://gazetapacosdeferreira.pt/edicao-2542-13-maio-2021/)

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

66% PS (+1)
25% PSD (-4)
  4% CHEGA (new)
  4% CDU (+3)
  1% Others/Invalid (-4)

Poll conducted between 16 and 29 April 2021. Polled 700 voters. MoE of 3.71%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 21, 2021, 05:34:33 AM
Tense week could lie ahead in the PSD: Party "tribunal" to decide sanctions on Rio, because of Euthanasia, and Rio threatens to suspend functions.


Quote
Rui Rio may suspend functions in PSD.

Next Monday, the PSD "tribunal", officially known as the Jurisdiction council, will decide to approve or not sanctions on Rui Rio and his caucus leader Adão Silva. All of this because of a complaint filed by a PSD member from Braga, who accuses Rio of violating a party congress vote that obligated the party to support a referendum on Euthanasia. Rio refused to support a referendum and, now, the "tribunal" says that Rio violated party rules and could be sanctioned. Rio is furious and accuses the "tribunal" of political motives and, according to Expresso newspaper, Rio is threatening to temporarily suspend his functions as PSD leader and call a National Party Council to discuss the matter and clear everything. This comes in a week where Mr Rio is facing questions about his future in the party's leadership, and he has already said he could leave the leadership after the local elections, depending on the results and/or if he was the will to carry on.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 21, 2021, 09:15:12 AM
Twitter suspends André Ventura account for 12 hours after Ventura said that Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita "should be beheaded":


Quote
Ventura banned from posting on Twitter for 12 hours after writing that “Cabrita should be beheaded”

André Ventura's, CHEGA leader, twitter account was suspended this afternoon, for 12 hours, after he posted a tweet saying that Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita "should be beheaded". This comment is a reaction to the news that the Interior minister suspended the penalty of a police officer who called Ventura a "aberration". Twitter says that Ventura violated the company's rules and he reacted by saying that this is "truly 21st century censorship that works only for one side" and that he's sorry that those who attack him don't suffer the same consequences.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 23, 2021, 11:10:10 AM
BE convention: Catarina Martins reelected as leader in a convention where the attacks towards the PS displayed the division within the left:


Quote
Left Bloc with one note convention: PS under fire

In the party's 12th Convention, in Matosinhos city, Porto, the Left Bloc (BE) had one target: the Socialists (PS). In fact, many of the speeches in the convention had the PS under fire, some for being too close to right or center, while for others for pushing away the party in terms of agreements. Overall, the future relation between PS and BE will probably continue tense, and this tense relationship is creating, or displaying, the divisions within the left in Portugal. As the BE was accusing the PS and criticizing them, the PCP was on social media trashing BE for basically being irresponsible (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-05-23-PCP-reage-ao-Bloco-nas-redes-sociais-em-modo-duro-e-discreto-fd89d0cc). In a tweet from a PCP MP, António Filipe, he said that the only reason the BE had a budget to trash on was because the PCP had the responsible attitude of letting it pass in Parliament. He then asked what kind of government Portugal would have if the PCP had follow the same path of BE of aligning themselves with rightwing parties against Costa's government. The PS is also unhappy with BE's positions and words in their convention.

Also in the convention, Catarina Martins was reelected as party leader but saw her vote share drop around 20 percentage points to 67.5%. Her opposition within the party grew and got 21.5% of the votes and now, the more radical wings of the party have a third of the seats in the party's leadership. Her opposition within the party accuse her of damaging democracy within the party and they want the BE away from the PS and stop forging deals with the Socialists. In fact, one of the most applauded speeches in the convention was a delegate that criticized Catarina Martins leadership.  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/oposicao-interna-do-be-recebe-aplausos-catarina-martins-errou-quando-continuou-para-os-bracos-do-ps-13756126.html)

In her speech, Catarina Martins set her targets more on the PSD and the extreme-right (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-05-23-So-ha-uma-forma-de-vencer-esta-direita-que-a-esquerda-lute-pela-maioria.-Catarina-Martins-encerra-Convencao-com-uma-prioridade-Emprego-b6460faf), unlike on her opening speech on Friday night where she trashed the PS. She said the PSD wants the extreme-right in the government and the left needs to unite to defeat the right. She pressed on with the policy flags of BE: more investment in the NHS, reverse the labour laws of the troika years, and reforming the financial system. Plus, she also said the priority of all priorities has to be "jobs, jobs. She also tried to raise hopes for the fall local elections, as its expected that BE will again to poorly in the elections. Is also still unclear how the BE will vote in 2022 budget discussions.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 24, 2021, 11:14:28 AM
Tension in the PSD: Party's "tribunal" meets this afternoon to decide sanctions against Rio but everything is on the table, even dropping the whole thing.


Quote
PSD's ‘Tribunal’ cuts sentences and proposes warning to Rio and reprimand to caucus leader

The PSD "tribunal" will convene this afternoon to discuss the sanctions against Rio and his caucus leader, Adão Siva, because of the Euthanasia referendum bill vote. This is creating a really bad environment in the party, and so far, the tribunal has already drooped the most severe sanctions like loss of mandate for Mr Adão Silva and a strong reprimand against Rio. Now, they propose just warnings or small reprimands but everything else is on the table, like drooping the whole thing or acknowledging that Rio and Silva didn't follow party rules but will not suffer consequences. Like I said above, the mood in the party is bad about this and many blame the "tribunal" of persuing a "kamikaze" mission in a very delicate period for the party (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/24/politica/noticia/processo-interno-rui-rio-adao-silva-considerado-kamikase-1963736). It's unclear how Rio will react to the decision, even if its a light one, but he has already proposed to suspend his mandate and force a discussion on this matter in a National Party Council.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 24, 2021, 05:29:24 PM
Court condemns André Ventura to apologize to the family he insulted on a live debate and demands he publishes a written apology in media outlets and in CHEGA social media platforms. Ventura will appeal:


Quote
André Ventura sentenced in court for offending Jamaica's neighborhood family

A Lisbon Court has sentenced CHEGA leader André Ventura to apologize to a family he called "thugs" in a live debate on TV. The Court is forcing Ventura to publicly apologize, and retract his attack, to a family that lives in the Jamaica neighborhood, a very poor neighborhood in Seixal city, and has to publish his apology in the media outlets that originally published the story plus in CHEGA's social media platforms. He and his party cannot give any future comments about this family which could be sanctioned by 5,000 euros by each infraction. The Court also decided that for each day the apology isn't published in CHEGA's social media platform, the party has to pay a daily 500 euros fine. Ventura and CHEGA, however, will appeal this ruling.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 24, 2021, 06:46:53 PM
Tension in the PSD: Party's "tribunal" meets this afternoon to decide sanctions against Rio but everything is on the table, even dropping the whole thing.

The "tribunal" dropped all sanctions against Rio and will only give a warning to caucus leader Adão Silva:


Quote
PSD tribunal backs down and drops sanctions on Rio

A possible crisis seems to have been averted in the PSD. After a long meeting, the party's tribunal has decided to drop all sanctions against Rui Rio, because of the Euthanasia referendum vote bill, and will only sent a warning, the minimum of penalties, to the caucus leader Adão Silva. The vote to "save" Rio was 5-4, in a tribunal where Rio's team is in minority, while Mr Adão Silva vote was 5 in favour of a warning, 3 against and one abstained. This outcome seems to have avoided a crisis within the party as Rio threatened to suspend his mandate and sent the discussion to a National Party Council where he would ask for a motion of confidence and settled things. However, it's unclear what Rio's reaction will be and he will probably react during Tuesday morning.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 25, 2021, 06:25:36 AM
Controversial rightwing convention starts today and ends tomorrow with Rui Rio's speech:


Quote
“Honeymoon” of the rights starts today (and joins, for the first time, the 4 heavyweights of the spectrum)

The "Europe and Freedom Movement" convention (MEL), initials that in Portuguese mean "honey", started today and for the first time joins the leaders of the 4 rightwing parties in Portugal, PSD, CDS, CHEGA and IL. The convention has a lot of invitees from the right and also the left. However, the presence of André Ventura is creating tensions on the left and right. The left parties accuse the right and the convention organization of "normalizing" CHEGA and are trashing some PS members who will take part in the conference, although the PS members taking part are critics of Costa's government. On the right, mainly in the PSD, there's doubts about Rui Rio's presence in this convention. This convention goal, according to their organizers, is to discuss the future of Portugal and what paths the country should take. In the audience, there is the former PM, and ghost that still haunts the PSD, Pedro Passos Coelho.

Regarding the current internal tension within the PSD:

Tension in the PSD: Party's "tribunal" meets this afternoon to decide sanctions against Rio but everything is on the table, even dropping the whole thing.

The "tribunal" dropped all sanctions against Rio and will only give a warning to caucus leader Adão Silva:

Rui Rio hasn't reacted yet, but his caucus leader, Adão Silva, has and he labels the "warning" as unfair and will appeal to the Constitutional Court.  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/25/politica/noticia/adao-silva-recorre-sancao-jurisdicao-psd-tribunal-constitucional-1963934)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 26, 2021, 09:19:07 AM
Rui Rio hasn't reacted yet, but his caucus leader, Adão Silva, has and he labels the "warning" as unfair and will appeal to the Constitutional Court.  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/25/politica/noticia/adao-silva-recorre-sancao-jurisdicao-psd-tribunal-constitucional-1963934)

The ongoing tension in the PSD: Rio reacts to the "tribunal" decision, accusing them of damaging the party on the eve of elections and of "persecutory performance" and "sterile disturbance".


Quote
Rui Rio destroys PSD's ‘court’: “Persecutory performance”, “sterile disturbance“, “withering away”

Rio's leadership met yesterday to analyse the ruling of the PSD "tribunal" on sanctions against Rio because of the Euthanasia referendum vote bill. The tribunal cleared Rio from any sanctions but argued that he did violate party rules. In a statement in the party's website, Rio trashes the "tribunal" accusing them of persecuting and of having other political goals than inspecting party rules. The statement goes on to say that the confidence between the different structures within the party have been damaged. The statement concludes by saying that the "tribunal" decision has hurt the credibility of the PSD. However, Rio will not go ahead with his threat of suspending his functions as leader or calling for a motion of confident, it seems. The statement sent also says that the party will "deviate from its path", despite "all the stones that are put in the way", and will continue "to fight for reforms the country needs" and for solutions that will "consolidate the PSD as the hope for a reformist government of progress and future."


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 26, 2021, 05:39:29 PM
The so-called "Congress of the rights" ended with Rio's speech, while Ventura spoke during lunch time:


Quote
Rio reaffirms PSD in the center, embracing Passos

The so-called "Congress of the rights", MEL, ended tonight with the speech of PSD leader Rui Rio. Earlier in the day, during lunchtime, André Ventura, CHEGA leader, was the most awaited speaker. In his speech, Ventura pressed on the idea that there will be "no rightwing government in Portugal without CHEGA" (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/ventura-apela-a-uniao-nao-havera-governo-a-direita-sem-o-chega-13770747.html) and accused Rio of being a weak leader of the opposition. Nonetheless, he supported the idea that it's time for the rightwing to coalesce and defeat their common adversary, António Costa, and added his willing to make concessions to forge that unity, saying that CHEGA is a party of government not protest. His speech was very applauded by the audience, unlike Rui Rio's speech. Mr Rio speech was the closing of the convention and there was some expectation of what he would say. In speech where there were few applause, Rio said the PSD isn't a "rightwing party" but rather a centrist one and that he's not an ordinary leader of the opposition. He said he wants to reform the country, the economy, education, the justice system and even in the opposition he's willing to talk to the PS government, but, he added, he finds a wall as the PS is the anti-reform party. This was probably the only moment when he energised the audience, as Rio trashed the PS for being the "personification of the special interests". After he ended his speech, Rio was greeted by former PM Passos Coelho, who, in relation to Ventura, was very uncomfortable and didn't even greeted Ventura after he ended his speech leaving the conference room in a hurry.

The media is saying that Rio's speech was true to himself but it was the wrong speech for that audience, making his decision to be present there a mistake. Plus, the media also says the convention, as well its invitees, made the convention all about CHEGA which makes the whole event look like a platform for CHEGA.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Astatine on May 26, 2021, 06:14:50 PM
I first thought that was Slovak Deputy PM Richard Sulík in the picture and not Pedro Passos Coelho? Damn, he's changed.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 26, 2021, 06:20:46 PM
I first thought that was Slovak Deputy PM Richard Sulík in the picture and not Pedro Passos Coelho? Damn, he's changed.

After he left office in 2015, his life has pretty much gone downhill: his leadership in the PSD was trashed, plus he has had a lot of personal problems in the last few years, like his wife's death from cancer, and he started to lose a lot of hair so he decided to become bald.

Also, it's almost ridiculous that the media and the same people who trashed his leadership during 2016-2017, are now saying he's the right person to lead the PSD again. This doesn't make any sense, at least in my opinion.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 27, 2021, 05:48:09 PM
PS leadership: António Costa runs for a 4th term as PS leader.


Quote
António Costa run again for the PS leadership

António Costa announced, today, he's running for a 4th term as PS leader. The leadership elections will take a place in June, after being postponed a year because of the Covid-19 pandemic. He will face a challenger, like in 2018, but will easily be reelected with 90%+. He also unveiled his manifesto for the party leadership in which he says his goal is to win the 2021 local elections and successfully complete the economic recovery and the vaccination program in order to launch the post Covid recovery and resilience plan. He adds that the pandemic opened scars in society and more investment in the NHS, more and better housing and fighting bad working conditions are the goal. He also proposed a discussion and possible referendum on regionalization in 2024 and said he trashed the PSD and said he has no intentions of negotiating with them and only with the left.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 28, 2021, 09:10:48 AM
CHEGA holds their 3rd congress, in 2 years, to discuss their program and position regarding a future PSD government:


Quote
Chega recognizes that changes to their program are to halt attempts for illegalization.

CHEGA will convene for the 3rd time in just 2 years in a congress this time in Coimbra city. The main topics in this congress are changes in the party's program and possible future alliances regarding a PSD government. Regarding their program, CHEGA is confirming they are changing their party platform to stop any attempt to illegalize the party. According to the media, Ventura is going to change a lot pf faces in his leadership team and drop many of the radical faces within the party. The media also reports that in a party meeting, Ventura told members that this changes are to "moderate" the party as there are internal pressures to turn CHEGA in a more moderate party on the right of the PSD. This isn't unanimous within the party, however. Regarding a future support for a PSD government, Ventura will ask the congress what kind of approach should CHEGA have. Ventura supports the idea that CHEGA has to be a "party of government" and should demand cabinet positions from Rui Rio (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-05-27-Andre-Ventura-so-viabiliza-Governo-PSD-se-Rui-Rio-lhe-entregar-ministerios-f6d62b01), or whomever is the PSD leader. If not, he says that the party could block a PSD government in Parliament.

The police is also in alert as antifa groups are expected to concentrate in Coimbra city (https://expresso.pt/sociedade/2021-05-26-Manifestacao-antifascista-marcada-para-congresso-do-Chega.-Autoridades-em-alerta-caa655c6) and protest against CHEGA and André Ventura.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 28, 2021, 06:03:29 PM
RTP-Bullfights controversy: 125 personalities, including 35 PS MPs and members, signed an open letter against the RTP and the government's decision to ban bullfights from the network.


Quote
Open letter against bullfighting ban on RTP includes 35 socialists.

The government's decision to ban the transmission of bullfights on RTP channels is creating backlash, especially within the PS. 125 personalities signed an open letter against the government's decision and accuse Costa's cabinet and RTP of "censorship" and that bullfights are a "integral part of the heritage of Portuguese material and immaterial culture". The letter has the signatures of 35 PS MPs and high profile members including the party's chairman, Carlos César, and Mário Soares son, João Soares. They also accuse the current director of programs in RTP, Nuno Artur Silva, of a "campaign against bullfighting" and that they are not imposing any cultural vision just that RTP should respect regional diversity and cultural expressions. In terms of MPs, 27 PSD MPs signed the letter and also 19 from the PS, 6 from PCP and 4 from CDS. 18 PS mayors in areas where bullfighting is very popular also signed the letter.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 30, 2021, 07:46:40 AM
Champions League final fallout: President Marcelo criticizes the government's handling of it, and PSD leader demands an apology to the country.


Quote
Marcelo criticizes Government: "It is not possible to say that fans come in a bubble and then they don't come in a bubble".

The fallout of the chaotic organization of the Champions League final is Porto city continues. The government continues silent but President Marcelo, while visiting a food bank in Lisbon, criticized the government's handling of the CL final. Marcelo asked the government for coherence adding that the government's speeches need to be close to reality and trashed the "bubble of fans" plan saying it didn't work. Asked if the event was a total failure, Marcelo didn't went that far but said that things didn't went as planned. PSD leader Rui Rio is also trashing the government and the mayor of Porto for their handling of the final. (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/rui-rio-diz-que-governo-e-camara-do-porto-devem-pedido-de-desculpas-aos-portugueses-13784999.html) On social media, Mr Rio accused the government of not learning a thing about the chaotic Sporting celebrations two weeks ago, and that they and Porto mayor Rui Moreira owe an apology to the Portuguese people. Porto mayor Rui Moreira already responded to Rui Rio and accused him of having a "problem with Porto city" and of having "Portofobia".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 30, 2021, 05:45:58 PM
CHEGA's 3rd congress ends: A very divided party who wants to be in government, but that can't even manage a party congress.


Quote
A mystery program, "ghost" motions and the turnaround with Rio. The three-day congress of CHEGA.

The 3rd congress of CHEGA, in just 2 years, ended this evening with the speeches of Ventura and Matteo Salvini, the Italian Lega leader. But, the congress showed, once again, how divided and confusing is CHEGA's internal organizations and its members. The main topic of this congress was, supposed to be, the discussion of the party's program/platform as there is the fear that CHEGA could be ruled as illegal by the Courts. CHEGA has been debating changes in its program for some weeks now, and the media even published reports that the goal was to "moderate" the party to avoid any threat of illegalization. However, the program is a mystery as no one knows what's in it and any discussion of it was pushed to a later date as the document "is to complex". In the end, delegates to the congress elected party leaders without knowing the main policy lines of the party for the next 2 years. At the same time, Ventura got what he really wanted: an overwhelming vote of support within his party. Unlike last year's trainwreck congress, Ventura leadership team got 79% of the votes in the first ballot, but it wasn't a victory without any setbacks. Ventura's new picks showed he had dropped some key people in the party's structure and replace them. One of them was Nuno Afonso, the party's local election coordinator, who labeled Ventura's decision, of removing him from the leadership team, as a "betrayal". Then there were a series of "ghost motions", as the Congress leadership team refused to put up for a vote around 40 of the 80 motions presented. One of the motions, to elect local party representatives, was rejected by the Congress chair because the party "doesn't have money for local party elections".

And then there was the PSD-CHEGA clash. PSD was invited to be in the congress and they accepted. However, in his speeches on Friday and Saturday, Ventura trashed Rui Rio and the PSD, once again, and the demands that Rio had to include CHEGA in a PSD cabinet, otherwise they would join the left and struck down a future PSD government, made the PSD furious. In a statement to the press, during lunch time, the PSD announced they were canceling their presence in CHEGA's congress as Mr Ventura had "gone too far" and had "no decency". Earlier on Friday, PSD leader Rui Rio, had already trashed CHEGA accusing them of having "megalomaniac dreams ". IL also cancelled their appearance in the congress and at the end, only CDS was present. At the end of the congress, the appearance of Matteo Salvini was expected and in his speech, Salvini hoped that CHEGA would join his dream of a "big European family of popular, conservative and identity parties". The surprise was the appearance, by video, of a Likud representative supporting CHEGA.

The congress also had two very weird and confusing moments: one was Saturday afternoon, when as some delegates were speaking at the podium, other delegates were booing and the Congress chair forced a 15 minutes break in order "for delegates to relieve themselves in the bathroom". Other confusing moment was a fire outside the building, in a bush, that created some panic as it was near the parking lot.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on May 31, 2021, 05:43:32 PM
Another controversy from CHEGA's congress: Delegate accused of plagiarizing a speech from Giorgia Meloni, leader of Fratelli d'Italia.


Quote
Chega member plagiarized leader of Italian party, but says it is "ridiculous" and "pitiful" to make "value judgment"

There's another controversy surrounding the CHEGA congress this weekend. This time, the media found that a CHEGA young member, Rita Matias, plagiarized a speech from Giorgia Meloni, leader of Fratelli d'Italia. Ms Matias literally copied complete sentences from a Meloni speech in 2019:


Rita Matias is rejecting the idea that she plagiarized Meloni's speech and her speech was much more "broad" while confessing that Meloni is a political reference for her.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 01, 2021, 05:17:14 AM
Intercampus poll for Funchal - PS incumbent, 104,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %:

46.7% PSD/CDS (-2.4)
38.3% PS/BE/PDR/NC (+0.4)
  2.9% CHEGA (-0.5)
  2.6% CDU (+0.2)
  2.2% IL (+0.1)
  1.5% JPP (+0.5)
  1.1% PTP (+0.4)
  4.7% Others/Invalid (+1.3)

Poll conducted between 17 and 26 May 2021. Polled 402 voters. MoE of 4.90%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 02, 2021, 05:54:12 AM
Hahahahahahaha lmao

Very funny to see CHEGA doglapping the Italian hard right in more ways than one. To be fair, considering how strong Lega and FdI summed together are in the polls now, this is not shocking.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 02, 2021, 06:10:52 AM
Hahahahahahaha lmao

Very funny to see CHEGA doglapping the Italian hard right in more ways than one. To be fair, considering how strong Lega and FdI summed together are in the polls now, this is not shocking.

CHEGA can only dream of having the kind of internal structure Lega or FdI have. Congress after Congress, it's clear CHEGA is Ventura and Ventura is CHEGA, there's nothing else not even a program/platform. If some day, Ventura does a "Santana Lopes", the next day CHEGA is over.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 03, 2021, 01:00:34 PM
2021 local elections update:

- In Pedrogão Grande, (Leiria district), the PS nominated candidate, incumbent mayor Valdemar Alves, announced he will not run for another term and will decline the PS nomination. (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/sociedade/valdemar-alves-rejeita-recandidatura-a-camara-de-pedrogao-grande-13748057.html) Mr Alves is currently on trial because of corruption due to bad management of the 2017 wildfire recovery funds. His nomination was very controversial, with the local party supporting it, but the PS-Leiria district party opposing, forcing the national party to make a decision. The PSD is hoping to retake this village from the PS;

- In Vila Verde, (Braga district), a PSD bastion, the PS hasn't presented a candidate yet. Although the PSD has been dominant in this city for decades, it's involved in several corruption scandals (https://semanariov.pt/2021/06/02/autarquicas-2021-os-candidatos-ao-trono-em-vila-verde/) and the current PSD candidate, the wife of a PSD MEP and former mayor of the city, is also suspected of corrupt deals. However, deep internal divisions are damaging the PS and the party hasn't find a candidate yet. So far, in this city only PSD, CDS and CHEGA presented their candidates;

- In Porto, the same occurs in the PS. The media is reporting that the local party is becoming fed up with Costa's delay in announcing a candidate (https://www.publico.pt/2021/05/27/politica/noticia/indecisao-costa-impacienta-socialistas-portuenses-1964221) and say that it will hurt the party's chances in the city. There is a deep division on the local party on who should run, and one of the likely candidates, Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro, has already dropped out, leaving Manuel Pizarro, the local party leader, and José Luís Carneiro, deputy PS general-secretary, as potential candidates;

- In Azambuja, (Lisbon district), there is a curious candidacy. A PS parish president has left the party and will run for mayor of Azambuja as the CHEGA candidate (https://omirante.pt/politica/2021-05-29-Autarca-do-PS-e-candidata-a-Camara-de-Azambuja-pelo-Chega-61f1d904). Inês Louro, the parish president of the urban parish of Azambuja, has left the PS and, in an April interview to a local newspaper, said she supports many of CHEGA's ideas like more vocal support for rural areas;

- In Marco de Canaveses, (Porto district), the local CDS has "quit" from the coalition with the PSD as they accuse the party's negotiator in the coalition of being "disloyal" (https://averdade.com/tamega-e-sousa/marco-de-canaveses/2021-06-02-CDS-PP-de-Marco-de-Canaveses-decide-nao-se-envolver-no-acordo-de-coligacao-com-PSD-para-as-autarquicas-de-2021-c1e91708). The coalition was imposed by the national CDS in a city where PSD and CDS actually hate each other, and the CDS negotiator rejected all of his party's picks for the lists and only accepted the PSD ones. So, the local party will not take part in the fall local election campaign;

- In the PSD, there's still a lot of people furious for not being picked and/or for being rejected by the national leadership. At least 5 local PSD branches, Aveiro, Barcelos, Castelo Branco, Lourinhã and Vila Nova de Paiva, have sent complaints to the party's "tribunal" (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-06-02-Escolhas-autarquicas-levam-Rui-Rio-de-novo-ao-conselho-de-jurisdicao-nacional-bf7c1868) and demand a clarification on who has the final say in picking candidates. The most complicated case is Barcelos where the local party actually threatens to take to an actual Court of law the PSD leadership because of the election process in that city;

More updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 04, 2021, 02:11:21 PM
Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos is being criticized for his posture within the PS:


Quote
Criticism of minister Pedro Nuno Santos' performance reaches PS

Yesterday, the PS caucus leader, Ana Catarina Mendes, surprised pundits with a rather strong criticism of minister Pedro Nuno Santos handling of the ongoing TAP-Ryanair controversy. This controversy started after an EU court ruled that the TAP bailout was "insufficiently justified", which prompted a tense response by minister Pedro Nuno Santos accusing Ryanair of "commercial war" against TAP. There was also a meeting between both men, which ended badly with each side accusing each other: Nuno Santos refusing "any lessons from a private company" and Michael O"Leary, Ryanair chairman, saying the TAP bailout money was like throwing money down a toilet, and should be invested in other areas. The responses from Pedro Nuno Santos are being badly received within the PS leadership, with the PS caucus leader saying the minister should "behave" and ponder his words and not follow to the same level of Mr O"Leary.

However, some PS MPs are not happy with the words of the caucus leader to the minister. Curiously this seems like a prelude of what Costa's succession within the PS will be like. For a while now, Pedro Nuno Santos, from the leftwing part of the party, was seen as the "natural heir" of Costa, but he has collided with Costa in many topics and their relation is now strained a bit, plus the media trashes him all the time. Ana Catarina Mendes could also be a possible candidate for the succession, especially if Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina fails to be reelected in this fall. Of course this will only happen some years from now, maybe in 2023 or a bit latter, but the trends and divisions within the PS are curious.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 05, 2021, 07:25:32 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/06/05/politica/noticia/eurosondagem-40-ps-chega-3-lugar-1965404)

Vote share %:

40.0% PS (+0.6)
27.2% PSD (-0.2)
   8.4% CHEGA (+0.4)
   5.5% BE (-1.1)
   5.0% CDU (nc)
   2.7% IL (+0.5)
   2.5% CDS (nc)
   2.2% PAN (-0.2)
   6.5% Others/Invalid (nc)

Left vs Right:

52.7% PS+BE+CDU+PAN
40.8% PSD+CHEGA+IL+CDS

Poll conducted between 31 May and 3 June 2021. Polled 1,021 voters. MoE of 3.07%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 05, 2021, 01:59:20 PM
PAN congress: Party convenes to elect Inês Sousa Real as new leader.


Quote
PAN: Inês Sousa Real wants party as an "alternative to governance models"

The People-Animals-Nature party (PAN) congress happens this weekend in Tomar city, Santarém district. The main topic of the congress is the election of a new leader, which will be PAN caucus leader Inês Sousa Real. The vote will occur during tomorrow, Sunday, morning. This will also be André Silva's last congress as party leader. During the congress, however, there were some tense moments. In one of the motion votes, a motion to limit family connections in the leadership created a lot of tension and confusion. Some members in the leadership have family ties with other members and they accused this motion of being unconstitutional. This motion was overwhelmingly rejected at the end, with 103 votes in favour and just 12 in favour.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 06, 2021, 07:16:00 AM
PAN congress: Party convenes to elect Inês Sousa Real as new leader.

Inês Sousa Real is now officially PAN's new leader:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/ines-de-sousa-real-eleita-porta-voz-do-pan)

Inês Sousa Real was elected leader of PAN, this Sunday morning, gathering 109 votes (87.2%) of the delegates in the party's congress in Tomar city, Santarém. There were 16 votes blank or invalid (12.8%). The vote was by secret ballot.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 06, 2021, 07:19:49 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-intencao-de-voto-nas-legislativas-13808233.html)

Vote share %:

38.9% PS (+0.7)
24.0% PSD (-2.1)
  8.0% BE (-1.2)
  7.0% CHEGA (-0.2)
  5.7% CDU (nc)
  5.2% IL (+0.3)
  3.7% PAN (+1.0)
  1.4% CDS (+1.0)
  0.3% Livre (-0.5)
  5.8% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Preffered PM:

52% António Costa (-3)
15% Rui Rio (-2)
24% Neither (+4)
  2% Both (nc)
  7% Undecided (+1)

Government approval:

44% Approve (-11)
29% Disapprove (+7)
22% Average (nc)
  5% Undecided (+4)

President of the Republic approval:

70% Approve (-1)
10% Disapprove (nc)
17% Average (+8)
  3% Undecided (+1)

Poll conducted between 26 and 30 May 2021. Polled 796 voters. MoE of 3.40%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 07, 2021, 03:14:13 PM
PSD general-secretary, José Silvano, to go on trial because of the 2018 "passwords scandal":


Quote
Secretary General of the PSD goes to trial in case of presences in the Assembly of the Republic

A judge has ruled that the PSD general secretary, José Silvano, will go on trial because of the 2018 "password scandal" regarding MPs presences in the floor of Parliament. In November that year, Expresso newspaper reported that a PSD MP used Mr Silvano password while in a Parliamentary session. She was accused of using Mr Silvano password to registered him as present, something she denied, and it was also revealed that this was a common practice between MPs of all parties, but this was the only one caught by TV cameras. The PSD MP who used Silvano's password, apologized for what she did, and Mr Silvano denies any wrongdoing and says an inquiry proved that there was no financial benefits and that he never allowed the use of his password. He also says the ruling is infair but that he will defend himself in Court. The judge accuses Mr Silvano of "computer forgery".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 07, 2021, 05:46:40 PM
Post Costa leadership in the PS? After Ana Catarina Mendes "attack" towards Pedro Nuno Santos, the media is saying that the PS is already thing in the future leader:


Quote
Medina and Pedro Nuno Santos are options to succeed Costa in the PS

Ana Catarina Mendes, PS caucus leader, "attack" towards minister Pedro Nuno Santos has ignited, once again, the discussion of the future leadership of the PS. There are rumours and suggestions that Costa will not run again in 2023 in order to succeed Charles Michel in the Presidency of the European Council. There's also the suggestion that Costa could resign as PM next year as there's also rumours that EU leaders want to dump Michel next year, but this suggestion is very unlikely as it would be "political suicide" within Portugal. But the prospect of Costa not running for a 3rd term in 2023, is making pundits and the media look in a different way to the Mendes vs Nuno Santos feud. The likeliest candidates are minister Pedro Nuno Santos and Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina. Costa dislikes Nuno Santos and doesn't want him to succeed him, but, he's the strongest in the PS base. However, he has a problem as he is, according to polling, not a very popular minister and is currently inserted in the imbroglio of TAP airlines. Fernando Medina has a crucial test this fall with the local elections. A strong result in Lisbon would help him be the "Costa" candidate for the leadership. But, if Medina loses Lisbon, the media suggests that Ana Catarina Mendes could be Costa's solution to face Nuno Santos and fight him. (like I wrote in some posts above.)

Costa still controls the PS with a tight grip, but his hypothetical departure could divide the party. An interesting development to follow.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 08, 2021, 05:43:44 AM
2021 local elections: PS picks Eduardo Pinheiro, Mobility secretary, as the party's candidate for Porto city.


Quote
Eduardo Pinheiro is the PS candidate for the Porto City Hall.

This announcement is surprising the media and pundits. Costa has picked Eduardo Pinheiro, his mobility secretary, as the PS candidate for Porto mayor. The local PS was deeply divided and had been lacking a candidate in the country's 2nd largest city for months now, but this pick is surprising as Mr Pinheiro is quite unknown, and many in the local party are criticizing the pick and suggesting that there's a secret deal between Costa and Rui Moreira. Both PS and PSD decided to pick not very well known candidates this time around. Porto city now has 4 official candidates, from PS, PSD, CDU and BE. CHEGA will announce their candidate during the next few day and it could be a dissident from Rui Moreira's movement. Independent mayor Rui Moreira, involved in a corruption case, has yet to announce his candidacy but an announcement is widely expected in the coming weeks.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 08, 2021, 01:16:19 PM
Controversial government nominations are dominating the headlines:

The nomination of Pedro Adão e Silva as the chairman of the 50th anniversary of the 25 April revolution committee is being criticized for its mandate, wage and background:


Quote
True: Will Pedro Adão e Silva enjoy the “best benefits of the State” to organize the 50th anniversary of the 25th of April?

The day is being dominated by two government appointments that are generating a lot of controversy. The first, is the official nomination of Pedro Adão e Silva, a political commentator with ties with the PS, to the post of chairman of the 50th anniversary of the 25 April 1974 revolution committee, in which, the media is reporting he will hold that office until 2026 and earn 4,500 euros monthly. He will also have a personal chauffeur, a personal secretary and other people working directly to him. The opposition is trashing this nomination, with PSD leader Rui Rio accusing Costa of using taxpayers money to "pay" all the compensations Mr Adão e Silva did to the PS as a pundit. The government hasn't reacted yet, however, many PS members are accusing the opposition of populism.

There is other controversial nomination, this time for the Mobility and Transport Authority presidency. The government choose Ana Paula Vitorino, PS MP and wife of the deeply unpopular minister of internal affairs, Eduardo Cabrita, as the new chairwoman of the Mobility and Transport Authority. (https://tvi24.iol.pt/videos/politica/pedro-nuno-santos-escolhe-ana-paula-vitorino-para-a-amt/60be6c100cf246344eac81dd) She will earn 12,000 euros per month, but what is really creating controversy is that this nomination seems to be resurrection the "familygate" scandal of 2019. In that scandal, the media found that many government picks had family ties, which created a lot of criticism and accusations of nepotism. This time, many accuse the government of, once again, nominating someone as a family favour.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 09, 2021, 02:36:33 PM
2021 local elections: PS picks Eduardo Pinheiro, Mobility secretary, as the party's candidate for Porto city.

Back to square one in the PS: Eduardo Pinheiro quits as candidate just 24 hours after being picked by his party.  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/06/09/politica/noticia/eduardo-pinheiro-desiste-candidatura-camara-porto-1965940) According to Público newspaper, he said that "after a carefull reflection" he declined the invitation to be a candidate.

This pick for Porto city was received with fury by the local party, with PS members accusing Costa of forging a secret deal with Rui Moreira. Is José Luís Carneiro, PS deputy secretary general, condemned to be a candidate, even against the wishes of the PS-Porto? We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 09, 2021, 05:43:26 PM
"Russiagate"?: Lisbon city hall gave personal data of anti-Putin activists in Portugal to the Russian government.


Quote
Lisbon City Council provided data from anti-Putin activists to Russia.

A weird story broke this evening. The media is reporting that Lisbon city hall has provided to Russia, the home addresses and names of 3 anti-Putin Russian activists living in Portugal. These 3 activists held a rally in Lisbon against the Putin government last January. This was revealed by one of the activists as she says that while analysing the mails between her and the Lisbon city hall, to announce the protest, she also found the e-mail addresses of the Russian embassy and the Russian foreign ministry, meaning that her data was also sent to the Russian government. The activist has already sent a protest to Lisbon city hall adding she could also go to the Courts. She also says she's scared of what will happen to her if she goes to Russia. Lisbon city confirms the email and says they are trying to fix the mistake and will open an inquiry into the matter. Plus, Lisbon city has already asked Russian authorities to delete the data.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 10, 2021, 05:32:06 AM
Russiagate: Lisbon city hall rejects accusation that they are complicit with the Russian regime, but confirms the sharing of information and will change procedures.


Quote
CML rejects any accusations of complicity with the Russian regime and amends internal procedures.

The ongoing controversy regarding the "Russiagate" continues. From left to right, parties are demanding explanations from Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina, and the rightwing candidates, PSD and IL, for Lisbon mayor, are openly demanding Mr Medina resignation. Lisbon city hall has sent a press release confirming the sharing of information with the Russian authorities but stressing that this was a common practice, hinting they also shared info about protesters with other countries. The city says they are sorry for the procedure and will change their internal organization to prevent more sharing of information. Adding to this, Lisbon city rejects any accusation that they are complicit with the Russian regime, concluding that those accusations are just "political leverage".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 10, 2021, 12:15:15 PM
Ok, this remark by the Portuguese-Russian activist which had her personal data sent to Russia by Lisbon city hall, Ksenia Ashrafullina, is quite brutal:

Quote
(...)
Ashrafullina said she was pleased by the political reaction in Lisbon and Brussels, but surprised that it was coming in June instead of in January.

"I told Portuguese journalists about this in January but nobody wanted to report on it," she said.

"I get that with the elections coming up, we're part of a bigger political game now. .. If that helps to make Portugal a more democratic country, I guess that's fine."

From here: https://www.politico.eu/article/fernando-medina-lisbon-russia-dissidents-personal-data-sharing/


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 11, 2021, 05:31:25 AM
Russiagate: The media reveals that Lisbon city hall also gave info to the governments of Israel, Venezuela and China, as the Secret Services are assessing how in much danger the 3 Russian activists are in Portugal.


Quote
Lisbon City Hall also shared data with embassies in Israel, China and Venezuela.

The "Russiagate" controversy continues to dominate headlines, with new revelations. After Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina apologized for the sharing of personal data with Moscow, he said that the procedures were changed in April and that he only found out about everything when the news broke on Wednesday. He also opened an investigation to see if this happened in other cases. This is generating a lot of questions about how much into the matter the mayor knows and how local services in Lisbon work. In the meantime, the media continues to reveal that the Russia data sharing seems to not be an isolated case. Lisbon city hall, is now revealed, also shared personal data of protesters and activists with the embassies of Israel, Venezuela and China. A pró-Palestine group, who organized a rally in Lisbon, told this to the media and added that, when complaining to city hall, he was informed that in other occasions, the embassies of Venezuela and China were also informed. At the same time, the Secret Services (SIS) are assessing the security of the 3 Russian activists in Portugal. (https://expresso.pt/sociedade/2021-06-11-SIS-vai-avaliar-nivel-de-risco-de-seguranca-dos-ativistas-anti-Putin-9776bb35) The SIS will issue a conclusion that could force the police to personally protect these activists.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 12, 2021, 07:29:51 AM
2021 local elections: PS picks Eduardo Pinheiro, Mobility secretary, as the party's candidate for Porto city.

Back to square one in the PS: Eduardo Pinheiro quits as candidate just 24 hours after being picked by his party.  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/06/09/politica/noticia/eduardo-pinheiro-desiste-candidatura-camara-porto-1965940) According to Público newspaper, he said that "after a carefull reflection" he declined the invitation to be a candidate.

This pick for Porto city was received with fury by the local party, with PS members accusing Costa of forging a secret deal with Rui Moreira. Is José Luís Carneiro, PS deputy secretary general, condemned to be a candidate, even against the wishes of the PS-Porto? We'll see.

José Luís Carneiro declines to be a candidate for Porto city:


Quote
PS: Deputy Secretary General of PS declines candidacy for Porto city hall.

The tension continues around the PS candidacy for the second largest city in the country. After the chaotic pick of Eduardo Pinheiro as candidate, that only lasted 24 hours, one of the possible candidates to the race, José Luís Carneiro, has declined to be a candidate. In a statement to the press, he said that "after a lot of thinking, I reiterated, to the local party, my unavailability to be a candidate." Although he was a strong candidate, the local party didn't want him as he's not from Porto city or has any connection with the city. The local party has to pick a candidate quickly as time is ticking for the elections, in late September it seems, but now, the likeliest candidate, and basically the only one available, is Manuel Pizarro, the party's candidate in 2013 and 2017.

Mr Luís Carneiro seems more poised to be a minister very shortly, however. The media reports that there's immense pressure from the party's base to force a reshuffle of the cabinet (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-06-12-PS-pressiona-para-remodelacao-do-Governo-no-verao-583535f0) before the local elections, and José Luís Carneiro could be a pick for minister, maybe Internal Affairs minister and succeed the very unpopular Eduardo Cabrita.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Beezer on June 13, 2021, 02:57:21 AM
Quick question: Is there any official Chega document that talks about their preferred model for autonomy? I've only come across a couple of comments by Ventura but nothing concrete.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 13, 2021, 07:04:49 AM
Quick question: Is there any official Chega document that talks about their preferred model for autonomy? I've only come across a couple of comments by Ventura but nothing concrete.

You mean how the party's position on regional autonomies, right? I don't remember him talking about abolishing regional governments, but his party, or what's left of his platform, wants to abolish several regional offices, reduce regional MPs and reduce also the size of regional governments.

Now, CHEGA and Ventura are against the creation of new autonomy regions, the regionalization project that would create 5 new autonomous regions in mainland Portugal. However, this project is very divisive and would have to be put up in a referendum and its outcome is a huge doubt. I myself have big doubts about regionalization.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Beezer on June 13, 2021, 10:42:31 AM
Thanks. I've been reading up on Vox, Chega and their respective brands of populism. Since Vox is obviously deeply opposed to regional autonomy, I was just wondering if Chega had a similar attitude, probably based on different concerns though seeing as Portugal doesn't have the same kind of regionalist history that Spain does. I supposed Chega's objections are more about autonomous administrations squandering funds then?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 13, 2021, 11:00:30 AM
Thanks. I've been reading up on Vox, Chega and their respective brands of populism. Since Vox is obviously deeply opposed to regional autonomy, I was just wondering if Chega had a similar attitude, probably based on different concerns though seeing as Portugal doesn't have the same kind of regionalist history that Spain does. I supposed Chega's objections are more about autonomous administrations squandering funds then?

Exactly, they believe the Azores and Madeira regional governments are too big, bad managed and they need to be diminished. The current CHEGA support for the PSD led minority government in the Azores, more often than not, has tensions because of the size of the government and the state welfare, as CHEGA accuses the PSD of not doing enough to cut "waste" and of even increasing the state support. However, CHEGA-Azores is a very, very divided party currently as there is a big feud between the 2 MPs which seems to be hurting the party in the islands.

And like I said above, they do not support abolishing the Azores and Madeira regional governments, but in terms of the regionalization, they are totally against. President Marcelo has also doubts about regionalization, while he was PSD leader, in the late 90's, he led the campaign against regionalization and was victorious as voters rejected the project by a 64-36% margin. Both PS and PSD are also deeply divided on the issue of regionalization. Costa wants to hold another referendum on the matter after 2023, but it's still to be seen if it will indeed happen.

And speaking of CHEGA:

Facebook suspends André Ventura' s account for 24 hours:


Quote
Facebook suspends André Ventura's account.

Facebook has suspended André Ventura's account for 24 hours because of two complaints regarding posts he wrote on the social media page. One post is about minister Eduardo Cabrita, where he says "If that's how the Third Republic lives, I also think Eduardo Cabrita should be beheaded!", and the second is about a Colonial War veteran, who died in March this year, in which Ventura called the leftwing parties "sissies" for not being present. Ventura has already reacted saying that social media is becoming more and more the "shackles of political correctness" and that only CHEGA is being "persecuted".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 13, 2021, 01:03:53 PM
Controversy with IL's St. Anthony fair: Health authorities gave it a negative opinion, as some games in the fair are also creating controversy.


Quote
Darts against opponents provoke controversy. IL defends herself: "It was just a joke".

The Liberal Initiative St. Anthony's fair, yesterday, was expected to create controversy, and it did. First, Health authorities gave a negative opinion about the event, saying it was wrong to held it when Lisbon city is forbidding festival fairs. The media criticized the party and IL leader, João Cotrim Figueiredo, was questioned by reporters if there was no hypocrisy in criticizing PCP for the Avante Festival and now doing this. Mr Cotrim Figueiredo rejected any accusation of hypocrisy by saying that the pandemic situation is much more controlled now and that people cannot stay locked in their homes forever. PSD leader, Rui Rio, already trashed IL for their fair, accusing them of doing worse than the PCP, and that in order to defeat this pandemic "it's necessary to have full respect for others and sense of responsibility".

However, some games in the fair are also attracting some controversy. One was a darts game where people could throw darts against the faces of "political opponents" of IL: Costa, Rio, Medina and other members of Costa's cabinet. Nor CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, or André Ventura where "one of the targets". The other controversial game, was an arrow game in which people had to hit, with an arrow, a manequin with a Che Guevara t-shirt and with the face of minister Pedro Nuno Santos. IL is responding to the criticisms by saying all was a joke and was for people to have some fun.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 14, 2021, 10:08:09 AM
2021 Local elections: PS picks Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro as candidate for Porto mayor.


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Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro is a candidate for the PS to Porto city hall.

After months of tensions, back and forwards and a lot of criticisms, the PS has picked Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro as candidate for Porto city. Mr Barbosa Ribeiro, who is the leader of the local PS-Porto, actually said, a few weeks ago, that he was unavailable to be a candidate, but the recent turmoil in the party may have force him to retract his earlier stance. His name will be voted by the local party, tonight, and then sent to the national leadership to make it official. Mr Barbosa Ribeiro is aligned with the leftwing of the PS and close to Pedro Nuno Santos and, therefore, not close to António Costa. Mr Barbosa Ribeiro was also involved in the Tancos air base roberry scandal, after it was revealed he had exchanged text messages with former defense minister, Azeredo Lopes (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/tancos-sms-para-deputado-compromete-azeredo-lopes), in which the minister confirmed to him the cover up operation.

With this announcement, Porto city has basically the final list of candidates, however some minor parties may also announce candidacies. Mayor Rui Moreira will announce his candidacy for a 3rd term next Thursday also:  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/06/13/politica/noticia/independente-rui-moreira-recandidatase-camara-municipal-porto-1966265)

- Rui Moreira (Independent, supported by CDS and IL)
- Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro (PS)
- Vladimiro Feliz (PSD)
- Ilda Figueiredo (CDU)
- Sérgio Aires (BE)
- António Fonseca (CHEGA)
- Diogo Araújo Dantas (PPM)
- André Eira (Volt)

The CHEGA candidate, António Fonseca, is the current parish president of Porto historical center parish and a dissident from Rui Moreira's movement. Overall, this race is basically a forgone conclusion, for the moment. Mayor Rui Moreira, even though involved in a corruption trial that could force him out of office, is the overwhelming favourite and the real battle seems to be who will place second, PS or PSD? But even here, the PS is the favourite as a big chunk of Rui Moreira's electorate is from the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 17, 2021, 09:01:51 AM
Update on the 2021 local elections:

- Worrisome news from Viseu city. The PS candidate for the city, João Azevedo, is in hospital, and in critical condition, because of a heart problem. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/06/16/politica/noticia/quadro-clinico-candidato-ps-camara-viseu-agravase-substancialmente-1966789) The latest news was that his condition was becoming worse. Last April, the former PSD mayor and candidate for reelection, Almeida Henriques, died due to complications with Covid-19;

- André Ventura will run in the local elections. (https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/737967/andre-ventura-e-candidato-a-assembleia-municipal-de-moura-a-bandalheira-vai-acabar) Despite saying he wouldn't run in the local elections, Ventura ignored what he said in the recent past, and decided to run for Moura city municipal assembly, in Beja district. Moura gave Ventura one of his strongest showings in the 2021 Presidential elections;

- In Porto city, there's an ongoing war between the PSD and Rui Moreira. The PSD is accusing Moreira of using city hall emails and equipments to promote his reelection bid. (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/uso-abusivo-psd-queixa-se-a-cne-do-movimento-que-apoia-rui-moreira-13841855.html) The party has already filed at least two complaints to the Electoral Commission. Rui Moreira's campaign already labeled the PSD accusations as ridiculous, and accused the PSD, and it's candidate, of doing the same thing in 2013, while Rui Rio was mayor of Porto;

- In Lisbon city, PAN has chosen writer Manuela Gonzaga as the party's candidate for mayor (https://observador.pt/2021/06/15/autarquicas-escritora-manuela-gonzaga-e-candidata-do-pan-a-presidencia-da-camara-municipal-de-lisboa/). Ms Gonzaga, 70 years old, is a PAN member since 2012. Livre will also present a candidate for Lisbon city, but will hold primaries to choose a candidate, in which the party's leader, Rui Tavares, is a candidate;  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/06/07/politica/noticia/rui-tavares-candidatase-primarias-livre-concorrer-lisboa-1965599)

- In Cascais city, the PS will run in a coalition with PAN and Livre. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/06/14/politica/noticia/ps-pan-livre-coligamse-cascais-apoiar-alexandre-faria-presidente-estorilpraia-1966450) The PS led coalition will have as candidate the chairman of Estoril-Praia football club, Alexandre Faria. He will face the incumbent PSD/CDS mayor, Carlos Carreiras;

- PSD leader Rui Rio has been in several candidates presentation sessions across the country lately, in Portalegre, Évora and Lisbon, and is pressing the view that the PSD has to have a strong showing the elections. (https://observador.pt/2021/06/17/autarquicas-rui-rio-afirma-que-o-psd-necessita-aumentar-eleitos-para-garantir-sustentabilidade-enquanto-grande-partido/) Mr Rio says the electorate needs to punish the government for their recent actions. Indeed, the elections are make or break for Rui Rio's position as leader, however, the mood in the PSD is bad and few believe the party will make substantial gains;

- Also, 9,306,120 voters are registered to vote in the local elections. The number was announced, today, by the government.  (https://eco.sapo.pt/2021/06/17/ha-93-milhoes-de-eleitores-prontos-para-votar-nas-autarquicas-veja-a-lista-por-concelho-e-freguesia/) Overseas voters are barred from voting in local elections;

More updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 18, 2021, 09:56:08 AM
Russiagate: Internal investigation by Lisbon city hall found that organisers of 52 protests had their personal data sent to embassies since 2018.


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Lisbon: Lisbon City Hall sent personal data of demonstrators to embassies in 52 protests

The mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina, unveiled, this afternoon, the results of the internal investigation by Lisbon city hall regarding the sharing of personal data by Lisbon to several embassies/foreign governments. Overall, since 2012, 182 protest organisers had their personal date shared with embassies, while since the passing of the 2018 online personal data protection law, 52 were shared with embassies. The results of the investigation were sent to the Data Protection Commission, and Mr Medina announced he has fired the head of the data protection for Lisbon city hall. He adds that this sharing of data were "a mistake" and they are trying to fix it. He admits there is now a "break of trust" between citizens and Lisbon city hall and that it needs to be faced head on. However, he refuses to resign as mayor, despite the demand from the PSD/CDS opposition. Mr Medina is expected to present his reelection campaign in the coming days.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 18, 2021, 10:29:12 AM
Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita involved in a deadly accident as his official car runs over a man in a highway:


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Car where Minister Eduardo Cabrita was in runs over a person on the A6.

This news is just being reported. The media is reporting, and the Interior ministry also confirms, that minister Eduardo Cabrita's car, in which he was in, ran over a man who has doing road maintenance in the highway between Elvas and Lisbon. The man ultimately died due to the injuries. The police is now investigating the causes of the accident. Mr Eduardo Cabrita was returning from a ceremony in Portalegre city, and has already said he's "very sorry" for what happened and has sent his condolences to the grieving family.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 18, 2021, 02:45:03 PM
2021 local elections: Turmoil in Gaia city, PSD candidate quits because of a personal feud with the local PSD leader.


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Scolding in the PSD: António Oliveira gives up his candidacy for the Chamber of Gaia

The situation in the PSD-Gaia reached boiling point, today. For months now, there was a huge personal feud between António Oliveira, Rio's pick for candidate, and Cancela Moura, the PSD-Gaia leader and recently, Rio himself had to mediate a fight between Oliveira and Moura, as Mr Moura was sidelining Mr Oliveira in the compositions of the lists. This time, Mr Oliveira gave up after Cancela Moura didn't budge in his imposition to be either the number 2 on the list for mayor, or head candidate for the Municipal Assembly. António Oliveira communicated his intention to Rio himself in a meeting in Porto city, this afternoon, according to Expresso newspaper.

This is a huge blow for Rui Rio as António Oliveira was a personal pick from Rio and this is another dent in Rio's strategy. Several people in the PSD-Gaia actually warned Mr Oliveira that he wasn't aware in what he was getting in to, because of the toxic state of the party in Gaia. In my opinion, one of the reasons the PSD is failing to win elections in the last few years, is the constant petty infighting and that many PSD members would rather lose elections than to lose their positions within the party.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 19, 2021, 01:56:52 PM
2021 local election: Interesting race to follow in Lisbon's Campo de Ourique parish, as António Costa's son is the main candidate. (https://www.dn.pt/edicao-do-dia/19-jun-2021/filho-de-peixe-sabe-nadar-pedro-costa-vai-a-votos-pela-primeira-vez-13852305.html)

The son of Prime Minister António Costa, Pedro Costa, is the current President of the parish since 2019, when the former parish president resigned from the office. Costa was the 2nd in the list and thus he became parish president. He will now run for a full term in the fall. He will face the a PSD led coalition candidate, which is still to be announced.

Campo de Ourique is a middle class parish, west from Lisbon downtown, where PS and PSD have a strong presence. In 2017, the sum of PSD+CDS got 36% against the 38% of the PS. The PS controls the parish since 2013.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 20, 2021, 10:26:42 AM
António Costa reelected as PS leader with 94% of the votes:


Quote
António Costa reelected in the PS with 94% of the votes.

Prime Minister António Costa was reelected as PS leader with 94% of the votes in party's leadership race. His challenger, Daniel Adrião, got 6% of the votes, held during this weekend. However, this result was Costa's worst as PS leader, compared with the 95% in 2016 and 96% in 2018. On the other hand, Mr Adrião result was better than his 2016 and 2018 candidacies. Detailed results are still to be announced.

In a statement after the results were announced, Costa thanked PS members for their trust and pointed that the next battle is the local elections in September, adding that the goal is to win and maintain the biggest number of mayors and councillors. Daniel Adrião reacted to the results saying he defeated the "unanimism" around António Costa, pressing that the party needs to unveiled the full results in the sake of transparency.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 21, 2021, 05:17:53 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-06-21-Sondagem-legislativas.-PS-na-frente-mas-com-pior-resultado-desde-marco-de-2020-Chega-esta-no-3.-lugar-com-10-d170d338)

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-3.3)
22.4% PSD (+0.7)
10.1% CHEGA (+1.8 )
  8.9% BE (+0.6)
  6.4% IL (+2.2)
  6.0% CDU (+0.5)
  5.2% PAN (+0.4)
  3.1% CDS (+0.2)
  0.6% Livre (-0.7)
  2.7% Others/Invalid (-2.4)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.1 António Costa (-0.2)
3.0 Catarina Martins (nc)
2.9 André Silva (+0.1)
2.8 Rui Rio (nc)
2.8 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.6 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.1)
2.0 André Ventura (nc)

Poll conducted between 8 and 16 June 2021. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on June 21, 2021, 09:13:28 AM
António Costa reelected as PS leader with 94% of the votes:


Quote
António Costa reelected in the PS with 94% of the votes.

Prime Minister António Costa was reelected as PS leader with 94% of the votes in party's leadership race. His challenger, Daniel Adrião, got 6% of the votes, held during this weekend. However, this result was Costa's worst as PS leader, compared with the 95% in 2016 and 96% in 2018. On the other hand, Mr Adrião result was better than his 2016 and 2018 candidacies. Detailed results are still to be announced.

In a statement after the results were announced, Costa thanked PS members for their trust and pointed that the next battle is the local elections in September, adding that the goal is to win and maintain the biggest number of mayors and councillors. Daniel Adrião reacted to the results saying he defeated the "unanimism" around António Costa, pressing that the party needs to unveiled the full results in the sake of transparency.

96% in 2016, 95% in 2018, 94% now.....

At this rate he could be in some difficulty when he is about 120 :p


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 21, 2021, 09:56:50 AM
96% in 2016, 95% in 2018, 94% now.....

At this rate he could be in some difficulty when he is about 120 :p

Ahahah xD. Nonetheless, it's a bit annoying the PS doesn't reveal the detailed results. Also, this could be Costa's last leadership campaign, as there's the rumour that he will not run again in 2023. I have my doubts about that, but I think it will be a decision that will depend on the mood of the country by that time.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 21, 2021, 12:12:52 PM
Ongoing turmoil in PSD-Gaia: Local party accuses António Oliveira of being a "little dictator" and a "no-show".


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PSD local party criticizes António Oliveira: “Giving up now was the best thing he could have done to Gaia”

The withdraw of António Oliveira as PSD candidate in Gaia city, 305,000 inhabitants, is still rocking the PSD. After Mr Oliveira's announcement, he released an open letter to the media accusing the local PSD-Gaia of shameful tactics that "are the worst there is in the human species". He also said that this wasn't a withdraw but a "question of hygiene". He nonetheless thanked Rui Rio for the invitation, but added that Rio was also a victim in all of this. The PSD-Gaia is furious and in a press conference this morning, where CDS and PPM were also present, trashed Mr Oliveira and rebuffed every accusation he did against the PSD. The local party leader, Cancela Moura, which was having a feud with Oliveira, accused Mr Oliveira of not showing up to party meetings, of not expressing a single idea for the city and the in the only time he met with the PSD, Mr Oliveira insulted many PSD members. They also says he was a "casting error". PSD leader Rui Rio isn't reacting to this controversy as it was also revealed that Mr Oliveira didn't actually told Rio he was quitting. In fact, it seems that in the meeting between Rio and Oliveira nothing was decided and Mr Oliveira was to think about what to do. Rio, according to the press, is deeply upset. The local PSD-Gaia accused also Mr Oliveira of not treating Rio with respect and of having no character.

The party will now pick a new candidate in the next few weeks, but admit this will have electoral consequences in Gaia city. At the same time, the media is also reporting that Mr Oliveira's sons may be involved in a hit and run incident (https://www.cm-tv.pt/atualidade/detalhe/jovens-acusam-filhos-de-antigo-selecionador-antonio-oliveira-de-atropelamento-e-agressoes), as a revenge act against two young men who are suspected of breaking in to a home owned by Mr Oliveira.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 23, 2021, 09:32:16 AM
Government under fire for not signing the letter on LGBT rights in Hungary:


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Portugal absent from European condemnation of Hungary on sexual rights and freedom of expression - RTP Notícias

The government is being heavily criticized for not joining or signing an European letter that condemns the attacks on LGBT rights and freedom of expression in Hungary. From left to right, parties are criticizing the government, from the Liberals (IL) who accuse Costa's government of having no credibility and of having a "proximity" to the Hungarian government, to BE who trashes the government by saying that there "cannot be any neutrality regarding human rights". The government explanation is that because Portugal is now in the European Council Presidency, the country needs to be neutral and be a mediator. The Socialist party youth, JS, is also criticizing the government. Others accuse the government of ending Portugal's presidency in the worst possible way, but the foreign minister, Santos Silva, says the whole matter is a "mistaken assessment". 13 EU countries signed this letter condemning Hungary.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 23, 2021, 10:06:02 AM
This long never ending feud continues:

Ryanair chairman calls Pinocchio to minister Pedro Nuno Santos:


Quote
Ryanair boss calls Pinocchio to Pedro Nuno Santos and refuses trade war

Quote
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary accuses the Portuguese government of lying about the low cost airline. And the accusation couldn't be more graphic: the executive of the British company presented a photomontage in which the Minister of Infrastructure and Housing, Pedro Nuno Santos, appears with the nose of Pinocchio, the child character whose nose grows every time he lack of truth.

“Ryanair is loved by the Portuguese, but it is not being treated well by minister Pedro Nuno Santos, who lies. Politicians lie all the time”, he accused, at a press conference this Wednesday in Lisbon. O’Leary responded to the minister's criticism that he had launched a “trade war” when he filed a lawsuit against State aid to TAP.
(...)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 24, 2021, 05:48:54 AM
Russigate: Media is revealing the Lisbon city hall audit that shows that Russia was informed 27 times of protests  and that Medina's support office was aware of it.


Quote
Medina's support office knew in 2018 that data was sent to embassies

The media is reporting, this morning, the results of the Lisbon city hall audit regarding the "Russiagate" controversy. The audit was presented last Friday but its results weren't released and Fernando Medina's press conference was very criticized by the media as the mayor didn't answer a lot of questions. Now, the media reveals that Russia was informed 27 times about protests and other countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq were also informed about protests in Lisbon. The audit also says that Medina's support office, an informal city hall body that supports the mayor, was aware of this practices. The audit says this "nuance" could clear mayor Medina of any responsibility but the audit doesn't say who is responsible for all this controversy, creating doubts of how Lisbon city hall is managed.

At the same time, Medina will go to Parliament, this afternoon, to respond to question from MPs about this controversy at the request of the PSD. The European Parliament also sent a letter to Lisbon city hall demanding answers as they suspect the city hall violated European law.  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/mundo/ativistas-russos-comissao-de-liberdades-civicas-justica-e-assuntos-internos-do-parlamento-europeu-pede-respostas-escritas-a-medina_n1330117)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 25, 2021, 09:26:43 AM
Gaffes of Speaker Ferro Rodrigues become viral:

Speaker Ferro Rodrigues hasn't had an easy 48 hours. In the last two days, Speaker Rodrigues has committed two gaffes that are making headlines. The first was Wednesday night, as he left the stadium, in Budapest, after watching the Portugal vs France Euro 2020 match. Quite euphoric about the final result of the match, the Speaker committed a gaffe:  (https://desporto.sapo.pt/futebol/euro-2020/artigos/com-a-pandemia-a-agravar-ferro-rodrigues-pede-que-portugueses-se-desloquem-de-forma-massiva-a-sevilha)

Quote
I hope the Portuguese go massively to the south of Spain and that they can support a great victory for Portugal in the round of 16 of this European Championship

This gaffe has become viral for almost every reason. It was made just hours before the government imposed tougher measures in the Lisbon metro area to stop the spread of the Delta variant, and Andalusia is currently one of the worst areas in Spain in terms of infections. But, today, Ferro Rodrigues did it again. While closing the Parliament session, the Speaker forgot to turn off his mic and he was caught trashing the BE and PCP MPs:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-06-25-Estes-gajos-do-Bloco-e-do-PC-foram-se-todos-embora.-Estao-todos-doidos-o-descuido-de-Ferro-na-aprovacao-da-reforma-das-Forcas-Armadas-3e160e4b)

Quote
These guys from Bloco and PC have all left. They're all crazy.

This gaffe was made as the new Armed Forces reform was being voted and approved. PS, PSD and CDS voted in favour, while the other parties, BE, PCP, PAN, PEV, IL and CHEGA, voted against, but PCP and BE MPs left the floor just after the vote.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 25, 2021, 01:20:47 PM
2021 local elections: No agreement on the election date.


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Local elections. Parties without consensus on election date

The government met today with parties represented in Parliament to discuss the date for the 2021 local elections. The preferred date of the Government is 26 September, but there's no concensus about this date. The 26 September is defended by the Government, PS, BE, CHEGA and IL. The other option is 10 October, and it's defended by PSD, PCP, CDS and PEV. The option of 3 October is only defended by PAN.

Despite this lack of consensus, the most likely that for the election is still 26 September and the government is expected to make a decision on the next cabinet meeting next week.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 26, 2021, 10:44:08 AM
2021 local elections update:

- Good news from Viseu city. The PS candidate for the city, João Azevedo, was released from hospital are being hospitalized for two weeks, in a ICU, due to a heart problem;  (https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/738838/viseu-joao-azevedo-recebe-alta-hospitalar-apos-duas-semanas-internado-nos-cuidados-intensivos-?seccao=Portugal_i)

- In Maia city, there's chaos in the PS. The candidate picked by the local branch was rejected by the national party, and instead the 2017 candidate, Francisco Vieira de Carvalho, will be the nominee. The local party is furious as they don't want Vieira de Carvalho as candidate (https://www.maiahoje.pt/ps-maia-pede-desculpa-pela-falta-de-respeito-e-de-dignidade-da-nacional/) and have already said they are ashamed by the decision of the national PS;

- In Gaia city, the PSD is now looking for a new candidate. The local party is expected to announce a name in the next few days and the most likely name is Cancela Moura, the man in the center of the whole debacle in the PSD-Gaia. Cancela Moura is quite divisive in the PSD-Gaia, but he controls the "party's machine" in the city and Rio doesn't want to confront him (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-06-26-Quem-e-Cancela-de-Moura-o-aparelhista-de-Gaia-que-trata-Rio-por-tu--e-que-Rio-nao-confronta--0e4f7375);

- In Lisbon city, another candidate has been announced. Livre leader, Rui Tavares, was nominated as the party's candidate for Lisbon mayor (https://www.publico.pt/2021/06/25/politica/noticia/rui-tavares-candidato-livre-presidencia-camara-lisboa-1968024). In 2017, Livre supported Fernando Medina. Mr Tavares is now the 11th candidate to run for Lisbon city in this election;

- In Montijo city, there's a full blown war between PS and PSD. The PSD candidate, João Afonso, is accusing the PS mayor, and candidate for reelection, of allowing corrupt deals inside Montijo city hall, and has already sent info to the DA office. (https://onovo.pt/politica/montijo-sucata-abre-guerra-entre-autarca-e-vereador-XL409415) The PS mayor, Nuno Canta, says the accusations of Mr Afonso are ludicrous, but has, nonetheless, opened an investigation within city hall. A few weeks ago, it was also reported the PS mayor called the police to prevent the PSD candidate, and councillor, of filming (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/presidente-da-camara-do-montijo-chama-policia-para-deter-vereador) the a city hall meeting;

More updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on June 28, 2021, 08:41:04 AM
The government is being heavily criticized for not joining or signing an European letter that condemns the attacks on LGBT rights and freedom of expression in Hungary. From left to right, parties are criticizing the government, from the Liberals (IL) who accuse Costa's government of having no credibility and of having a "proximity" to the Hungarian government, to BE who trashes the government by saying that there "cannot be any neutrality regarding human rights". The government explanation is that because Portugal is now in the European Council Presidency, the country needs to be neutral and be a mediator. The Socialist party youth, JS, is also criticizing the government. Others accuse the government of ending Portugal's presidency in the worst possible way, but the foreign minister, Santos Silva, says the whole matter is a "mistaken assessment". 13 EU countries signed this letter condemning Hungary.

Huh, this is surprising. From what I have read the signatories are now 17 and include all the EU countries in Western Europe except for Portugal. Considering that Portugal's mandate at the European Council Presidency ends in a matter of days, is the government going to sign that letter in the next week?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 28, 2021, 09:32:16 AM
The government is being heavily criticized for not joining or signing an European letter that condemns the attacks on LGBT rights and freedom of expression in Hungary. From left to right, parties are criticizing the government, from the Liberals (IL) who accuse Costa's government of having no credibility and of having a "proximity" to the Hungarian government, to BE who trashes the government by saying that there "cannot be any neutrality regarding human rights". The government explanation is that because Portugal is now in the European Council Presidency, the country needs to be neutral and be a mediator. The Socialist party youth, JS, is also criticizing the government. Others accuse the government of ending Portugal's presidency in the worst possible way, but the foreign minister, Santos Silva, says the whole matter is a "mistaken assessment". 13 EU countries signed this letter condemning Hungary.

Huh, this is surprising. From what I have read the signatories are now 17 and include all the EU countries in Western Europe except for Portugal. Considering that Portugal's mandate at the European Council Presidency ends in a matter of days, is the government going to sign that letter in the next week?

Yes, Portugal will sign the letter after the term ends on July 1st, but the government was a bit pressured to say that they would indeed sign the letter after the end of the Portuguese Presidency. The media was very harsh against the government and many op-eds in newspapers trashed the government's explanation of neutrality with the argument that if the European Council Presidency is neutral in matters like human rights, what's its purpose?  (https://expresso.pt/nota-da-direcao/2021-06-24-Nota-editorial-do-Expresso-a-explicacao-para-um-cabecalho-nao-neutral-c18ec16f)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 28, 2021, 10:47:53 AM
50% toll reduction in highways to start on July 1st, but electric cars will have none of the original additional benefits:


Quote
Roads: Toll discounts start without benefits for electric cars.

The government has given the final approval for the reduction of tolls in several highways across the country. The toll reduction bill was proposed by the PSD, and supported by all opposition parties, with only the PS voting against it. The government was furious with this approval and tried to make the bill unconstitutional but, at the end, the government gave up and decided to go ahead with the toll reduction bill. However, the PSD bill also said that electric cars would have a 75% discount in toll, but this is not to be. The government and highway dealers failed to find a way to differentiate electric cars from all the others in toll porticos, and therefore, who owns an electric car will not get the original reduction in toll in highways, and will have the same as other cars.

P.S.: The highway I use the most, A28, will have this reduction. :D


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 28, 2021, 07:28:33 PM
PS will postpone their congress, for the 3rd time in a row, to September:


Quote
PS will postpone Congress to mid September due to pandemic situation.

The PS will postpone their congress for mid September, the media is reporting today. This is the 3rd postponement of the party's congress as the original congress was to be held on 30-31 May 2020. Because of the Covid-19 pandemic in Portugal at that time, the party postponed the congress for 2021, and schedule the weekend of 10-11 July 2021 to hold it. But it the Covid situation in Lisbon worsening by the day, the party has, again, made the decision to postpone the congress, now to mid September, just days before the local elections. An official date is still to be announced. However, this decision is being very badly received by the tiny opposition of Costa within the PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 29, 2021, 06:00:06 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Palmela (https://osetubalense.com/ultimas/2021/06/29/cdu-recupera-maioria-absoluta-ps-em-risco-de-perder-um-vereador-e-mim-cds-cai-com-estrondo/?swcfpc=1) - CDU incumbent, 64,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election results)

45.9% CDU (+5.2), 5/6 seats
22.5% PS (-5.8 ), 2/3
  9.6% PSD (-2.1), 1
  7.3% Carlos de Sousa (new), 0
  4.2% BE (-1.8 ), 0
  2.5% CHEGA (new), 0
  2.1% PAN (new), 0
  1.1% José Calado (-7.1), 0
  4.8% Others/Invalid (-0.3), 0

Poll conducted between 16 and 18 June 2021. Polled 1,008 voters. MoE of 3.06%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 29, 2021, 10:21:15 AM
Controversy continues after the deadly run over of Eduardo's Cabrita official car on the Lisbon-Elvas highway:


Quote
Brisa denies the Interior Minister and says that the site of the works on the A6 where the worker died were signposted

The deadly run over of a road worker on the A6 highway, between Lisbon and Elvas, by the official ministerial car of Eduardo Cabrita, Interior Minister, continues to be involved in big controversy. The police is already investigating the case, but the Interior ministry is trying to justify the accident, but more and more doubts are being raised. The Interior Minister says that the worker who died, crossed the highway and that the road works weren't announced no the site. But the road concessionaire, Brisa, says the Ministry is lying because the works were clearly announced on the site. Another controversy is that the Interior Minister is refusing to disclose the speed the car was going when it ran over the worker, prompting accusations from the opposition, PSD and CDS, that the Ministry is trying to cover up the case. The media also reports that, because of the Ministry's explanations, the insurance companies are refusing to pay a sum to the workers widow, and will wait for the results of the investigation, plus that no government official was present at the workers funeral.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 29, 2021, 05:46:59 PM
Constitutional Court rules the gender self-determination law unconstitutional:


Quote
Gender self-determination law declared unconstitutional

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the gender self-determination law, approved by the government in 2018, is unconstitutional as the government exceeded its competences in this matter which, according to the Court, are the sole responsibility of Parliament. The Court didn't analyse the law itself as it was requested by a group of 86 MPs from PSD, CDS and PS. This law was approved by Costa's cabinet in June 2018, but in 2019, after the statute of the law was published, PSD and CDS criticized the law, specially the part that stipulated that schools should allow students to use the bathroom they want according to their gender identity. However, the Court didn't dispute this.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on June 30, 2021, 10:09:18 AM
Covid-19: PM António Costa in isolation after one of his staff members tested positive for the virus.


Quote
António Costa in prophylactic isolation - RTP Notícias

PM António Costa will be in isolation in the next few days because one of his staff members, in the PM's office, tested positive for Covid. Costa is already fully vaccinated but Health authorities decided, nonetheless, that the PM should be isolated.

Also today, tensions could arise, again, in the PSD. The party's "tribunal" will analyse, this afternoon, 7 protests from local party branches (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/psd-listas-de-sete-concelhos-em-risco-de-voltar-para-tras) against the candidates chosen by Rui Rio. These local branches accuse the PSD national leadership or "running over" the decisions of local parties and want a clarification. In 2017, in a similar situation, some PSD lists in Viana do Castelo had to be redone after the "tribunal" struck them down. The "tribunal" is also likely to decide who has the final say in picking candidates, in order to avoid these situations in the future.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 01, 2021, 09:16:17 AM
Pitagórica poll for Santarém city (https://omirante.pt/politica/2021-07-01-Maioria-dos-eleitores-deseja-a-reeleicaode-Ricardo-Goncalves-em-Santarem-103993ff) - PSD incumbent, 57,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election results)

46.5% PSD (+3.3)
34.9% PS (+0.8 )
  7.1% CDU (-0.5)
  4.7% BE (+0.6)
  3.1% CHEGA (new)
  1.4% IL (new)
  2.3% Others/Invalid (-3.3)

Poll conducted between 24 May and 20 June 2021. Polled 669 voters. MoE of 3.84%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 01, 2021, 10:16:59 AM
The ongoing run over of Eduardo Cabrita's official car continues with new revelations and controversies. This time, the media is reporting that the police was barred from doing forensics on the car by high command orders. GNR denies the report:


Quote
GNR prevented "by superior order" from making tests to Eduardo Cabrita's BMW

This report broke this morning and in fueling even more the controversy surrounding the weird accident with Eduardo Cabrita's ministerial car. Correio da Manhã newspaper is reporting that the Republican National Guard (GNR) was forbidden to do forensics on the car by "superior orders". However, the GNR is denying the report and in an official press released says that every diligence is being followed and nothing is being barred and forbidden. Despite this, the controversy continues with the silence of the minister and his office regarding the accident, and the media/pundits are trashing Cabrita and are starting to point their guns towards António Costa also. The PSD leader Rui Rio, already reacted by saying that if Costa continues to support Cabrita, he will be responsible for this whole situation. The main point of the controversy is the speed of the car, which the media says it could have reached 200 kms/per hour.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 01, 2021, 10:50:19 AM
2021 local elections: The election date is 26 September.

The government has just announced that the local elections will be held on September 26th, as expected.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 01, 2021, 11:44:36 AM
Russigate: Protection Data says that Lisbon city hall violated 225 rules in the law, which are worth 4.5 billion euros in fines.


Quote
Russiagate: CML subject to fines of up to 20 million for 225 misdemeanors.

In the day the Data Protection Commission chrairwoman, Filipa Galvão, goes to Parliament to explain Lisbon's city hall actions, a report from the Data Protection reveals that Lisbon city hall clearly violated the law. Jornal de Notícias writes that in the report, the Commission says that Lisbon city hall did 225 offenses (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/protecao-de-dados-acusa-camara-de-lisboa-de-violar-lei-13895128.html) to the Data Protection law, in which they preview a fine that could reach 4.5 billion euros, a maximum of 20 million euros per offense. There could still be mitigation in the fines as the Commission can still consider the nature of the offense, the gravity and the time the offense was done. Lisbon city hall now has 10 days, week days only, to respond to this report and accusation.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 02, 2021, 12:40:01 PM
Government reshuffle in the horizon? Foreign minister opens the door for his departure from cabinet as pressure mounts on Eduardo Cabrita:


Quote
Government Reshuffle? MNE admits leaving the Executive - RTP Notícias

The idea of a government reshuffle has been debated for a long time now, as many ministers in Costa's cabinet have become very unpopular or "dead weights". This Friday, Foreign minister, Augusto Santos Silva, seems to have opened the door for his departure from government as he told the Expresso newspaper that he hopes that the PS will let him end his career as a professor, but didn't defined a timetable. This interview happens in a time where the media/pundits are pressing Costa to do a government reshuffle, as many ministers, as said above, are very unpopular and many are involved, over and over again, in scandals. The recent "incident" surrounding Eduardo Cabrita's official car is putting pressure on Costa to sack him, and there's even pressure from within the PS as many party members are worried and add that the current cabinet is "tired" and "worn out" (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-06-12-PS-pressiona-para-remodelacao-do-Governo-no-verao-583535f0), and not capable of dealing the challenges ahead. These PS members want a reshuffle now and not after the local elections, as it seems to be Costa's plan.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 03, 2021, 07:10:13 AM
Government reshuffle? Costa rejects the idea of a reshuffle of his cabinet.


Quote
Government: António Costa to PÚBLICO: “No reshuffle is planned on the horizon”

PM António Costa is rejecting the idea of a government reshuffle. To Público newspaper, the PM says that he's not planning any reshuffle in the horizon, and added that all his ministers are doing a good job and that stability is needed right now, not change. He didn't talked about Cabrita, but he commented on the statement from his foreign minister, Augusto Santos Silva, saying that Mr Silva still has a lot of time left in cabinet but said this: "Even the coldest rationalist always has a naive moment when talking to journalists". About the rumour he will not run again in 2023, to be European Council President, Costa said that "things happen when they happen", adding he's not looking for other employment at the moment and confirmed he was offered Charles Michel current post in 2019 but that he declined.

Like written in posts above, a possible Government reshuffle is being defended by the media/pundits, even within the PS, as many accuse the government of being "worn-out". The man in the center of the current big controversy, Eduardo Cabrita, spoke for the first time in two weeks about the car incident and said he will not resign (https://observador.pt/2021/07/02/eduardo-cabrita-fala-pela-primeira-vez-sobre-o-acidente-e-assegura-que-nao-se-demite/) but said all is in the hands of Costa. He asked the opposition to not use this case for political purposes and that no one is above the law.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 03, 2021, 05:28:03 PM
Another "Treasure" from the local elections campaign:


Quote
José Manuel Frankenstein Silva, candidate of 7 parties for Coimbra City Hall.

They had one job... 8) 8)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 04, 2021, 04:59:33 PM
50% toll reduction in highways to start on July 1st, but electric cars will have none of the original additional benefits:

Controversy as the Government isn't following the law passed in Parliament and is making several changes in toll reductions:


Quote
Light vehicles out of the additional discounts on ex-free highways

As the meassure was being ratified by the Government, there was already a small "picardy" between PS and PSD, as the government was giving the impression that the toll reduction was their idea, which infuriated the PSD. But now, there's another controversy. The media is reporting that the government isn't following the law passed by the opposition in Parliament and is defining different rules. For example, toll reductions don't go to 50%, they don't include light vehicles (personal cars), and there's a time limit for the reduction that is different for each highway, in which in some highways toll reductions are only put into practice during daytime and in others during the night. The opposition is already accusing the government of not following the law and disrespecting Parliament.

* In the highway I use, A28, the toll reduction is only in practice between 8pm and 7:59am. Ridiculous. >:( >:(


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 05, 2021, 09:15:06 AM
CHEGA approves their new platform that includes life imprisonment and a racial ethnic registration:


Quote
Chega defends “racial ethnic registration” and re-includes life imprisonment in its program

CHEGA's controversial redraw of their platform/party program ended this weekend with the approval of the final draft of the platform. This redraw was controversial as it was secret and during the last party congress, party delegates were unaware of the party's position in key issues. There was also divisions within Ventura's team as some want to "moderate" the party, while others want to maintain the current path. The party included several policies in their program like life imprisonment, and one, which is raising some eyebrows, that proposes the creation of a racial ethnic registration, in order to identify communities with subsidy dependence.

However, the party's new platform has just 25 pages, down from the previous 60 pages, and has erased many of CHEGA's flagship policies in the past like the reduction of MPs, a full review of the Constitution or the reform of the political system into a Presidential one, and other policies.

Adding to this, CHEGA is now also using the YMCA as a campaign song, but Ventura's dance moves are, well.... you decide:


::) ::)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 06, 2021, 06:43:44 AM
2021 local elections update:

- Fernando Medina, PS mayor of Lisbon, launched officially his campaign for reelection yesterday. (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-07-05-Autarquicas.-Medina-e-recandidato-a-Lisboa-e-promete-creches-gratuitas-453af5e4) In a ceremony where PM António Costa was also in center stage, both Costa and Medina trashed the PSD and said that unlike the PSD, this election isn't "to preserve the leaser". Medina promissed more affordable housing and free kindergartens. However, pundits remind that the Russiagate affair continues to cloud Medina's campaign;

- The PSD has a new candidate in Gaia city and it's... Cancela Moura, of course (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-07-05-Autarquicas.-Cancela-Moura-lidera-coligacao-PSD-CDS-PPM-a-Vila-Nova-de-Gaia-fb4a78ed). The man in the center of the withdraw of former PSD candidate António Oliveira was the only available option left to the party. In 2017, Mr Moura only got 20% of the votes, against the 61% of the PS. There's no polling yet from Gaia, but predictions suggest that this year's results will not differ a lot from 2017;

- Also in the PSD, tensions continue between Rui Rio and the party's tribunal regarding local candidates. A ruling was expected last week, but the tribunal postponed the decision to this week and according to the media, the tribunal is set to reject 3 candidates picked by Rio, against the wishes of the local parties (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/tribunal-do-psd-trava-nomes-impostos-por-rio-para-as-autarquicas): Barcelos, Lourinhã and Castelo Branco. Rio has already said he will fight any rejection of candidates and could send this to the Constitutional Court. The good news for the PSD is that they didn't have any shot in winning these 3 cities prior to this, but the bad news is the awful image this gives to the party considering the bad prospects for the party in the elections, despite the bad moment the government is going through;

- In local elections candidates changing parties is quite normal, but in some places, it's a bit to much. (https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/738998/agueda-e-capital-dos-candidatos-tr-nsfugas) In Águeda city, Aveiro district, the current mayor is now running with the support of the PSD, but in the past he was a PS member, but even further in the past, he also ran in the CDS lists for a parish in Águeda. Also in Águeda, the CDS candidate is a PSD dissident, and the PS candidate was in the past a PSD councillor. So, yeah;

- In Moita city, while the PSD candidate was presenting its campaign, a man tried to slap the PSD candidate for Setúbal city, Fernando Negrão. (https://observador.pt/2021/07/03/autarquicas-fernando-negrao-vitima-de-arrufo-democratico-na-moita/) According to people in the presentation, the man in question spent a lot of time insulting the PSD and its candidates and at one point tried to slap Mr Negrão in the face. Mr Negrão downplayed the incident as a "democratic tiff";

More updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 06, 2021, 06:52:57 PM
2021 local elections: Amadora's race back in the headlines, as one of Portugal's most popular TV hosts supports the controversial PSD candidate Suzana Garcia:


Quote
Manuel Luís Goucha will chair the Honor Committee for Suzana Garcia's candidacy

The Amadora mayoral race is back in the headlines because of the announcement that Manuel Luís Goucha, one of Portugal's most popular TV hosts, is supporting the PSD candidacy of Suzana Garcia. Ms Garcia candidacy is very controversial with many people, even within the PSD, uncomfortable with her run because of her controversial positions in some issues like, f.e., her support for the chemical castration of paedophiles. Mr Goucha, openly gay and married, is a very popular TV host on TVI channel and has in the past supported high ranking politicians like Cavaco Silva in the 90's, José Sócrates in 2005 and even António Costa in his 2009 run for Lisbon mayor. Suzana Garcia was a regular presence in Goucha's TV program. Nonetheless, Mr Goucha is being heavily criticized on social media, with many accusing him of giving "cover to the far-right".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on July 07, 2021, 09:03:56 AM
Goucha has invited a neo-Nazi criminal as a guest on his show. This is hardly the worst thing he's done.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 07, 2021, 09:06:39 AM
2021 local election campaign: Campaign posters.

Setúbal - CHEGA

Quote
CHEGA (Enough) Liberate Setúbal

Almada - PSD/CDS/Alliance/MPT/PPM coalition

Quote
45 years of the left and we continue with tents in Almada. How about changing policy?

Figueira da Foz - Santana Lopes

Quote
Figueira has to be more. A connection for life. Pedro Santana Lopes (PSL)

Figueira da Foz - PS

Quote
Figueira, more quality of life.

Póvoa de Varzim - PS

Quote
João Trocado, Loosen Moorings

Sintra - IL

Quote
Did they promise to turn the disc over? If you want different, don't vote the same.

Amadora - PSD/CDS/Alliance/MPT/PDR coalition

Quote
Giving a voice to Amadora. Suzana Garcia.

Posters from the Ephemera Archive twitter account.

And finally, another "treasure" from this campaign:

Quote
Chocolate Againstdances, to ensure the necessary social distance. 2 meters, don't forget!
:D :D 8) 8)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 07, 2021, 09:35:56 AM
Goucha has invited a neo-Nazi criminal as a guest on his show. This is hardly the worst thing he's done.

Yeah, I agree with you, plus he was always very close to Suzana Garcia, so this is hardly a surprise. The PSD strategy for the inner suburban ring of Lisbon has been the same for years now: nominate someone well known with some controversial positions. In 2009, the PSD almost won Odivelas with Hernâni Carvalho, a TV host that hosts a lot criminal programs; in 2017 there was Ventura and the rest is history, and now is Suzana Garcia. Both 2009 Odivelas and 2017 Loures gave the PSD very good results, and I'm starting to feel that all this "publicity" she's getting could backfire on the left and she could gave a surprise result in Amadora. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 09, 2021, 06:24:22 AM
PSD tribunal confirms that Rio violated party rules, but doesn't reject the names due to the proximity of the elections.


Quote
PSD: Jurisdiction accuses the direction of Rio of "serious violation of the statutes" in the cases of Barcelos and Castelo Branco.

The PSD "tribunal" has ruled that PSD leader Rui Rio violated party rules by imposing candidates in the local elections, against the wishes of some local parties. The tribunal said that in the case of Castelo Branco, Lourinhã and Barcelos, the rules say that the local parties have a word in the candidate's nomination but Rio didn't follow the rules, according to the Court, and nominated someone else in these 3 cities. However, due to the proximity of the elections and the timetable to submit candidacies, the final date is 2 August, the tribunal didn't reject the names of the candidates (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/rui-rio-violou-estatutos-ao-impor-candidatos-as-autarquicas?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias3) and now gives an opportunity to the local parties to ratify the names. Lourinhã will do that, in Barcelos, despite the local party filed a complaint against the PSD to the Constitutional Court to stop the candidacy of the name picked by Rio, the district branch says that they are committed with the candidacy of Mário Constantino, while in Castelo Branco the party isn't mobilized and says the result of Castelo Branco will be the sole responsibility of Rui Rio. The PSD leadership says the ruling doesn't make sense as the leadership has to have a final say in the candidate's name and to have power to resolve internal disputes.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 09, 2021, 12:53:24 PM
PSD presents their Constitutional reform plan:


Quote
PSD proposes to have 15 fewer MPs and 5-year Parliamentary terms

The PSD unveiled, this afternoon, their Constitutional reform plan to be discussed after the September 26 local elections. PSD leader, Rui Rio, presented the plan he labels "not a revolution, but a reform" and also challenges the PS to come to the negotiation table and discuss this plan. The main proposals are the following:

- Reduction of MPs in Parliament from the current 230 to a number between 181 and 215;
- Increase of the Parliamentary term to 5 years;
- More powers to the President of the Republic like nominating Judges to the Constitutional Court, the Governor of the Bank of Portugal and other agencies;
- Changes in the text of the Constitution to remove all ideological rhetoric and reduction of articles to make it simpler;
- More changes in the text of the Constitution to make it more inclusive;
- Inscribe in the Constitution a "State of Emergency" for future pandemics;

These proposed changes have to be agreed or negotiated with the PS, but the Socialists have little desire in changing the Constitution and, therefore, probably nothing of this will be ever discussed. Plus, it's still to be seen if the PSD will go ahead with this after the local elections as Rio's leadership is on the ballot in the elections. A bad PSD result means that Rio would leave the leadership and this reform plan would go to the trash can, probably.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 09, 2021, 01:54:40 PM
Border control reform: Border control reform that reduces the duties of SEF approved by Parliament.


Quote
Restructuring of SEF generally approved by Parliament

The controversial reform of the Portuguese Border Control Agency (SEF) was approved this morning in Parliament with the votes of the PS and Joacine Katar Moreira. BE and PAN abstained, thus making the reform pass, while PSD, CDU, CDS, CHEGA, IL and MP Cristina Rodrigues voted against, overall a 109-99 vote. The reform basically dismantles the current border agency and many of their duties now go to other branches of the police. Those that remain will be incorporated in a new agency called SEA (Foreigners and Asylum Service). This reform was proposed by minister Eduardo Cabrita after the murder of an Ukrainian immigrant by border control agents in Lisbon airport in 2020. Many accused the minister, and the government, of running away from their responsibilities regarding the state of the Border Control and rushing for a quick reform of the whole border system. Opposition parties accuse the government of a bad reform, while the government defends that the reform will "maximize the effectiveness of action in the area of internal security".

Border Control agents are furious with the government and in the last few months they have been going on strike several times, that are creating chaos in airports across the country, (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/greve-provoca-caos-no-aeroporto-de-lisboa_v1334252) to protest against the government's border control reform.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 09, 2021, 05:05:27 PM
2021 local elections: Since 1976, 31 municipalities have never changed hands. They are:


Quote
There are 31 municipalities (10% of the total) that since 1976 (or since its creation later) have never changed their political color. Of these (mostly small municipalities), three stand out with more than 100,000 inhabitants: Odivelas (PS), Santa Maria da Feira (PSD) and Seixal (CDU).

* Odivelas was created in 1998, so it's a relatively new municipality. Therefore, Seixal is the biggest that hasn't change political party since 1976.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 10, 2021, 08:26:39 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

40.8% PS (+0.8 )
27.3% PSD (+0.1)
   9.0% CHEGA (+0.6)
   5.2% BE (-0.3)
   5.2% CDU (+0.2)
   2.5% IL (-0.2)
   2.2% CDS (-0.3)
   2.1% PAN (-0.1)
   5.7% Others/Invalid (-0.8 )

Q1: Who you think will win the local elections?

43.1% Other party
42.1% PS
14.8% Undecided

Q2: Who do you think will win the Lisbon city mayoral race?

45.5% Other party
42.0% PS
12.5% Undecided

Q3: Who do you think will win the Porto city mayoral race?

44.0% Other party
42.4% Rui Moreira
13.6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 July 2021. Polled 1,022 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

This poll is so weird. It doesn't make any sense at all...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 12, 2021, 08:58:15 AM
The Benfica investigation now reaches the Government: Pressure mounts for the Government to remove their pick for the Development Bank after the police raided his office.


Quote
Operation Red Card. Vitor Fernandes and António Ramalho were the target of judicial searches

The arrest of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, reaches the Government. If in the beginning the media was pointing the finger towards Costa and Fernando Medina for their support of Vieira's reelection campaign last year, adding Medina's trainwreck excuse for supporting Vieira, the Government is now facing pressures from the media and opposition parties to drop their nomination for the newly formed Development Bank (BPF). The media is reporting that Vitor Fernandes, the Government's pick for the BPF, had his office raided by the police as it's suspected that as an official in Novo Banco, he helped Luís Filipe Vieira not pay his debts to the bank thus hurting taxpayers as Novo Banco is still funded by a Government supported fund. Mr Fernandes says he's a victim and that he has all the condition to be chairman of the Development Bank, but the Opposition is already asking for his head and are pressuring the Government to drop immediately his nomination. PSD, BE, PAN, IL and CHEGA are saying that the government needs to remove Mr Fernandes nomination at once. (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/pan-junta-se-ao-psd-be-chega-e-il-para-travar-nomeacao-de-vitor-fernandes-para-banco-de-fomento-761619) There's no reaction yet from the Government nor from the PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 12, 2021, 09:16:30 AM
Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation poll:  (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/embargo-ate-seg-12-7-as-00h01-ps-mantem-lideranca-nas-sondagens-e-psd-recua-chega-destrona-be-do-terceiro-lugar-nas-intecoes-de-voto-760278)

Vote share %:

35% PS
22% PSD
11% CHEGA
  9% BE
23% Others/Invalid (CDU+IL+CDS+PAN)

Other interesting data from this study/poll:  (https://www.ffms.pt/destaques/detalhe/5648/dados-preliminares-do-estudo-sobre-a-covid19-em-portugal)

43% say the pandemic has weakened democracy;
42% say it's a good idea that the country should be ruled by someone who is a strong leader and doesn't have to worry about Parliament or elections;
75% approve the Government's handling of the pandemic;
47% believe the virus was fabricated in a lab;
53% say it's more important to prioritize Public Health than jobs or the economy;
86% believe that limitation in freedoms were justified or absolutely justified;

Poll/Study conducted between 16 March and 20 May 2021 to analyse the impact of Covid-19 in the Portuguese society. Surveyed 2,307 voters.

A bit old, but it was only published now. (Will try to find the data from the other parties as well)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 12, 2021, 01:39:19 PM
The Benfica investigation now reaches the Government: Pressure mounts for the Government to remove their pick for the Development Bank after the police raided his office.

The Government announces that Vitor Fernandes nomination for the Development Bank in now suspended:


Quote
Government rejects “for the moment” the election of Vítor Fernandes to the Development Bank

Quote
The Government suspended the appointment of Vítor Fernandes as chairman of the Board of Directors of the Development Bank, to avoid "controversy" in the institution, Economy Minister Pedro Siza Vieira said this Monday.

"What seems important to me at this point is to protect the Development Bank from any controversy regarding the suitability of its Board of Directors", he assured, adding that he requested information from the Attorney General's Office (PGR).


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 14, 2021, 09:34:32 AM
CHEGA-Azores continues to fall apart: Regional leader Carlos Furtado quits from the leadership and Ventura announces that Mr Furtado no longer represents CHEGA.


Quote
Azores: Carlos Furtado says he is unable to continue leading Chega-Açores

Since the October 2020 election, CHEGA-Azores has been a mess, with deep internal divisions and no clear path on what the party should do. Earlier this year there was even a big feud between the party's leader, Carlos Furtado, and the other CHEGA regional MP, but that ended with Mr Furtado being reelected for another term as leader. Now, the same Carlos Furtado has quit from the leadership saying he's under a "great emotional burden" that is damaging his work as leader. Ventura is said to be furious with this decision and announced that Mr Furtado no longer represents CHEGA, meaning he's basically being expelled from the party. Mr Furtado may continue in the regional parliament as an Independent MP, but Ventura has already asked for a meeting with Azores President José Manuel Bolieiro, to talk about the political situation, criticized the local CHEGA branch of being "too subservience" to the PSD and asked Mr Furtado to resign from his seat.

Could this create some changes in the support for the PSD/CDS/PPM government in the Azores? PSD has been "flirting" with PAN since the beginning and with Carlos Furtado possibly sitting as an Independent, CHEGA could be discarded by the PSD. This scenario is still unlikely, but not impossible. We'll see.

UPDATE: Carlos Furtado has confirmed he will sit in Parliament as an Independent MP (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/ex-deputado-do-chegaacores-fica-na-assembleia-regional-como-independente-13938842.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) and support the current PSD/CDS/PPM government.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 14, 2021, 01:41:14 PM
Remember this?:

PM Costa opposes President Marcelo and sends the new social supports to the Constitutional Court:

The PM spoke this afternoon about the ongoing new social supports controversy. The PM said the government decided to send the new social supports to the Constitutional Court with the argument that they clearly violate the law and should not be implemented. Costa added that "the Law is the Law" and that "the Constitution is the supreme law either the government is a minority or a majority." He also says that the President's approval tried to limit the constitutional damages these new social supports do, but that doubts are still present. The PM didn't confront directly, but however indirectly, the President but attacked parties in Parliament saying that "it wasn't their time", adding that their time was in the budget discussion and not now.

Well, the Court has issued their ruling and they have sided with Costa:


Quote
Costa wins over Marcelo and opposition. TC declares unconstitutional increases in social support for independent workers

Almost 4 months after that controversy between President and Prime Minister, the Constitutional Court has delivered their ruling and they have sided with Costa. The Court says the increase in social supports for independent workers is unconstitutional as it violates the "brake standard" that stipulates that Parliament cannot ask for spending beyond what's in the budget. The Court also ruled that social supports given before the ruling cannot be returned.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 15, 2021, 01:53:07 PM
ICS/ISCTE poll for Almada city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-07-15-Ines-de-Medeiros-lidera-em-Almada-com-1-de-vantagem-955c40e9) - PS incumbent, 170,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election results)

34% PS (+3)
33% CDU (+2)
11% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-6)
11% BE (+2)
  5% CHEGA (new)
  3% IL (new)
  3% Others/Invalid (-8)

Poll conducted between 25 June and 10 July 2021. Polled 605 voters in Almada city. MoE of 3.98%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 15, 2021, 06:54:08 PM
ICS/ISCTE poll for Porto city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-07-15-Se-as-autarquicas-fossem-hoje-Rui-Moreira-seria-reeleito-presidente-da-Camara-do-Porto-d03fe917) - Independent incumbent, 217,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election results)

45% Rui Moreira (+1)
25% PS (-4)
  8% PSD (-2)
  8% CDU (+2)
  5% BE (nc)
  2% PAN (nc)
  1% Livre (new)
  1% CHEGA (new)
  5% Others/Invalid (+2)

Poll conducted between 26 June and 10 July 2021. Polled 800 voters in Porto city. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 16, 2021, 05:42:02 AM
Political update:

- As gas prices are soaring in Portugal, the government wants to limit profit margins for companies but this is being rebuffed by the opposition and the media:


Quote
Government limits gas companies margins. Oil companies say that only reduced taxes will lower prices

The price of gas in Portugal has been surging in the last few weeks and months. Filling the pump, fully, could cost more than 100 euros and this is creating a lot of anger in consumers. On Monday, the Energy Regulator, ENSE, said, in a report, that gas prices have been surging in the last few months because gas companies profit margins in the final price have increased dramatically and that's what is pushing the prices up. Immediately after this report was released, the Government announced that they would introduce a bill to reduce profit margins in the cost of gas and stop big increases in the price of gas. However, the media, economists and the Opposition are skeptical of the government's plan. Gas companies say that this bill will be worthless as it would not reduce the final cost that much, but the media is pointing the high level of taxes in gas prices, well above 60% of the price, as the reason the price is so high and some pundits accuse the government of forgeting the big tax burden on prices (https://expresso.pt/podcasts/expresso-da-manha/2021-07-16-Governo-vai-mexer-nos-precos-dos-combustiveis-e-eles-vao-continuar-altos-925e34d0), and that profit margins only amount to 10% of the price. The opposition, on the other hand, trashes the government for not fulfilling their 2016 promise (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-07-14-Rui-Rio-acusa-Governo-de-nao-cumprir-palavra-e-da-exemplo-do-preco-dos-combustiveis-6f5a5c8a) of reducing fuel taxes if the price of oil went up.

- Also, Parliament approved, yesterday, the controversial bill that will mandate politicians to declare if they are members of any organization like the Freemasonry or Opus Dei.  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/07/14/politica/noticia/deputados-aprovam-obrigacao-politicos-declararem-pertenca-associacoes-maconaria-opus-dei-1970401)The bill was proposed by the PSD and it was a policy flag by leader Rui Rio, but it was severely trashed by Freemason associations, and in the end it was approved with the votes of all parties except the PS. Freemason associations say that with this bill, basic "liberties and rights" are being attacked.

- And finally, there's another "war" between President/Opposition and the Government brewing:


Quote
The Government is preparing for a new legal battle in the Constitutional Court over two diplomas related to the competitions for teachers approved by the Parliament and, in one case, already promulgated by the President of the Republic

The media is reporting, today, that the government is preparing yet another legal battle between them and President Marcelo/Opposition because of two bills regarding teachers hirings. In a showdown that resembles the one in 2019, where the government forced the opposition to drop a bill regarding teachers wages under the threat of Costa's resignation as PM, the President signed a bill, passed by the opposition against the wishes of the government, that forces the government to open hirings of teachers for artistic schools. The other bill, still not signed by Marcelo but he seems ready to sign it also, forces the government to review teachers recruitment regime in Basic Education. The government is furious, once again, and threatens to take these bills to the Court, as they argue that Parliament violated the Constitution by passing bills that are the sole responsibility of the government.

President Marcelo has already reacted by saying he's not worried by the threat from Costa's government and that he's "peacefully doing doctrine" and being consistent with what he has done on other occasions." Marcelo is also being criticized for his reaction to the Courts ruling on social supports, as Marcelo said "he is also happy with the decision of the Court."


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 18, 2021, 06:35:16 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/maioria-quer-remodelacao-com-cabrita-no-topo-governo-e-pr-em-queda-acentuada-13949658.html)

President Marcelo approval rating:

55% Approve (-15)
18% Disapprove (+8)
25% Average (+8)
  2% Undecided (-1)

PM António Costa approval rating:

41% Approve (-9)
35% Disapprove (+8)
21% Average (+2)
  3% Undecided (-1)

Government's approval rating:

37% Approve (-7)
33% Disapprove (+4)
28% Average (+6)
  2% Undecided (nc)

Opposition's approval rating:

50% Disapprove (+11)
21% Approve (nc)
22% Average (-9)
  7% Undecided (-2)

Q: Should there be a government reshuffle?

81% Yes
19% No

Poll conducted between 10 and 12 July 2021. Polled 763 voters. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 18, 2021, 07:34:05 AM
2021 local election update:

- PS and Livre will run in a coalition for Lisbon city. The deal was reached in the early hours of this Sunday morning:


Quote
Lisbon City Hall: PS and Livre compete in a coalition in Lisbon

The PS and Livre have forged a deal to run in a joint coalition in Lisbon city. Rui Tavares, Livre leader, was the party's pick to run for Lisbon mayor but since the beginning he has been negotiating a deal to run with the PS in Lisbon city. The deal was reached this morning and Tavares, if elected as a councillor, will be given the portfolio of Culture, Science, Knowledge and Human Rights. In 2017, Livre has already support the PS in Lisbon, but didn't run candidates with the PS;

- In the PSD, things continue tense. A lot of Court rulings are being given regarding internal fights between local branches and the national leadership. (https://onovo.pt/politica/autarquicas-psd-embrulhado-em-recursos-e-providencias-cautelares-BY504892) In Aveiro, the Courts sided with Rio against the PSD-Aveiro, but there's another lawsuit against the national PSD in Barcelos, with the local party wanting to drop their own candidate. A ruling is yet to be delivered, however, any decision may not have an impact in the submition of lists but will definitely have an impact in the election results of 26 September;

- CDS still has a lot of internal infighting. In the last few weeks, more high profile and local leaders have been leaving the party, accusing the current leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, of destroying the party and being just a "branch" of the PSD. The most recent "departure" was the former youth leader of CDS, Francisco Mota (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-07-16-Ex-lider-da-Juventude-Popular-deixa-direcao-do-CDS-e-acusa-Chicao-de-fazer-de-tudo-para-manter-o-poder-pelo-poder-0b022bcd), which resigned from the leadership team and accusing Chicão of being a "slave" to the PSD;

- Independent candidacies are set to reach another record this year. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-07-10-Autarquicas.-Independentes-multiplicam-se-outra-vez-mas-50-tem-um-partido-como-barriga-de-aluguer-224aa6f1) In 2017, there were 87 Independent candidacies for the mayors across the country. However, some Independents will run under the "umbrella" of minor parties like NC - We, the Citizens which is supporting more than 50 independents;

More updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 19, 2021, 04:03:09 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-intencao-de-voto-para-as-legislativas-e-a-avaliacao-dos-lideres-partidarios-13952048.html)

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (-1.3)
25.2% PSD (+1.2)
  7.8% BE (-0.2)
  7.7% CHEGA (+0.7)
  5.5% IL (+0.3)
  4.8% CDU (-0.9)
  4.6% PAN (+0.9)
  0.9% CDS (-0.5)
  5.9% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Preferred PM:

45% António Costa (-7)
22% Rui Rio (+7)
28% Neither (+4)
  1% Both (-1)
  4% Undecided (-3)

Poll conducted between 10 and 12 July 2021. Polled 763 voters. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on July 19, 2021, 04:29:14 AM
Quote
Costa wins over Marcelo and opposition. TC declares unconstitutional increases in social support for independent workers

Almost 4 months after that controversy between President and Prime Minister, the Constitutional Court has delivered their ruling and they have sided with Costa. The Court says the increase in social supports for independent workers is unconstitutional as it violates the "brake standard" that stipulates that Parliament cannot ask for spending beyond what's in the budget. The Court also ruled that social supports given before the ruling cannot be returned.

Ah. This is kind of sad but I guess in the end Costa was vindicated. I wonder if some of the other parties, especially I am thinking of the BE, are using or will use this as an opportunity to bash the Constitutional Court as an unresponsive organism out of touch with the people.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 19, 2021, 04:46:58 AM
Quote
Costa wins over Marcelo and opposition. TC declares unconstitutional increases in social support for independent workers

Almost 4 months after that controversy between President and Prime Minister, the Constitutional Court has delivered their ruling and they have sided with Costa. The Court says the increase in social supports for independent workers is unconstitutional as it violates the "brake standard" that stipulates that Parliament cannot ask for spending beyond what's in the budget. The Court also ruled that social supports given before the ruling cannot be returned.

Ah. This is kind of sad but I guess in the end Costa was vindicated. I wonder if some of the other parties, especially I am thinking of the BE, are using or will use this as an opportunity to bash the Constitutional Court as an unresponsive organism out of touch with the people.

We now know more info on the Courts ruling. The Court sided with Costa on the argument that Parliament could not approve that because of the budget rules, but the same Court says the government's cost estimation of the social supports is "very doubtful" (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/constitucional-deu-razao-ao-governo-mas-duvidou-das-contas), thus almost saying that if the government wanted, they could have made some arrangements to include it in the budget. At the same time, the government seems that will not stop in giving those social supports.

The reaction from parties left to right, with the exception of the PS, was that the government had a "tantrum" in a highly sensitive subject. President Marcelo's reaction, however, is being considered "over the top" and "weird" (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/marcelo-sobre-decisao-do-tc-ha-derrotas-que-sabem-a-vitorias_v1335566), because just minutes after the Court ruling was published, he phoned to TV networks to say he was also a winner because the Portuguese were not left unprotected and that it a defeat with a taste of victory.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 19, 2021, 10:23:17 AM
Sporting championship celebrations: Controversy continues as the media says minister Cabrita approved the Championship celebrations, as Cabrita refuses any responsibilities.


Quote
Eduardo Cabrita validated Sporting's celebrations against the wishes of the DGS and PSP.

The controversial and chaotic Sporting Championship victory celebrations that happened more than 2 months ago are back in the news. This time because the long awaited report on what happened that night was released and Minister Eduardo Cabrita is in the center of another controversy. The minister presented the details of the report last Friday and he blamed Sporting CP of not meeting with the police, (https://www.jn.pt/justica/sporting-recusou-colaborar-com-a-igai-diz-cabrita-13945949.html) but also Lisbon city hall for not managing well the situation. He also said he will propose changes in the law that regulates the right to demonstrate in order to avoid confusion. But, the media is reporting that the minister, well, didn't told the whole truth. It's being reported that Mr Cabrita approved the celebrations against the wishes of the police and health authorities, just 22 hours before the demonstrations.

Minister Cabrita's other controversy, surrounding his ministerial car deadly run over of road worker, continues to be news as the police report is in complete secrecy. Visão magazine reports that one month after the deadly accident, (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/politica/2021-07-18-acidente-com-carro-de-cabrita-ja-passou-um-mes-mas-o-relatorio-da-gnr-continua-sem-ver-a-luz-do-dia/) the police report is completely secret and any questions to the police are not being answered. The Environment minister is also in a middle of "ministerial car scandal" as he was caught in his official car cruising a complementary route at more than 160 km/h (https://www.publico.pt/2021/07/19/politica/noticia/ministro-ambiente-excesso-velocidade-nao-voltara-acontecer-1970940) and on a highway at more than 200 km/h. The minister reacted by saying he didn't feel the car was going at that speed, but that he already talked to his chauffeur and it will not happen again. PM Costa was also caught cruising the main highway between Porto and Lisbon in high speed, making a 3 hour trip in less than 2 hours.  

This is known now because TVI and CMTV are basically following or chasing ministerial cars to see how fast they are going. Priceless. ;) ;)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 21, 2021, 06:03:50 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-07-21-Sondagem-PSD-recupera-face-ao-PS-mas-pouco.-Bloco-e-Chega-disputam-o-terceiro-lugar.-Tres-quartos-dos-inquiridos-querem-remodelacao-981665e0)

Vote share %:

34.8% PS (+0.2)
23.4% PSD (+1.0)
  9.0% BE (+0.1)
  9.0% CHEGA (-1.1)
  6.7% CDU (+0.7)
  4.5% PAN (-0.7)
  3.1% IL (-3.3)
  2.8% CDS (-0.3)
  0.6% Livre (nc)
  6.1% Others/Invalid (+3.4)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.0 António Costa (-0.1)
3.0 Catarina Martins (nc)
2.8 Inês Sousa Real (new)
2.7 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
2.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.2)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.1 André Ventura (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 7 and 16 July 2021. Polled 607 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 21, 2021, 02:15:12 PM
State of the Nation debate: Opposition accuses the Government of being on the ropes, while Costa responds that the Opposition has nothing to offer.


Quote
State of the Nation. All opposition on the attack (but left spares Cabrita)

Today was the end of the 2nd Parliamentary Session of the 14th Parliament, and marking this date there was the State of the Nation debate. The debate was marked by the big pressure for a Government reshuffle and Rui Rio's absence from the debate because of the death of a close family relative of his, yesterday. Costa started the debate by announcing that young people between 12 and 17 years old, will be vaccinated until September 19th, and he also added other policies like 26,000 new affordable house for families, 900 million euros of investment for Education, 40 billion euros to transform the economy and society and contain unemployment at around 7%. Costa concluded his opening speech by saying "the country is rising again" after the fight against Covid. The PSD, by the voice of their caucus leader Adão Silva, accused the government of being "worn out" and "tired" because each day there are new messes done by the government. The Social Democrats also said the government forgets businesses and prefers to spend in the State, adding that the PS hates reforms. Costa, and the PS, joked by saying they are more worried by the state of the opposition rather than with the state of the nation, and made comparisons between the PSD management of the bailout and the Socialist's management of the Covid crisis.

On the left, BE accused Costa of not investing in the NHS and of not helping enough those who lost wages during the pandemic. Costa responded by saying the government means it when it wants to invest more in the NHS by hiring doctors and nurses. PCP accused the government of not doing enough to fight against low wages and massive layoffs, saying "it's time to break with right-wing politics", (an old, very old slogan on the PC). Regarding the controversy of the day, about the Sporting celebrations, Costa said he didn't knew about the celebrations approval and that he didn't sign it. PAN asked several questions about climate change, energy poverty and lack of social supports, in which Costa response was that the government is focused on fighting climate change. CHEGA basically said that Costa lives in a fantasy land and that he bows to Europe. The Liberals accused the government of "propaganda" in order to disguise the real state of the nation. Costa responded that he cannot argue with the Liberals.    


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 22, 2021, 06:27:17 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Funchal city (https://24.sapo.pt/jornais/local/3955/2021-07-22#&gid=1&pid=1) - PS incumbent, 104,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %:

42.8% PS/BE/PAN/MPT/PDR (+0.8 ), 6 seats (nc)
38.8% PSD/CDS (-3.2), 5 (nc)
  4.2% CHEGA (nc), 0
  3.6% JPP (+1.6), 0
  2.2% CDU (+1.1), 0
  2.1% IL (-0.4)
  1.6% PTP (+0.6), 0
  4.7% Others/Invalid (-0.5), 0

Poll conducted between 18 and 20 July 2021. Polled 1,525 voters. MoE of 2.50%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 22, 2021, 10:17:16 AM
Timetable for the 2021 local elections was released:  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/07/22/politica/noticia/candidaturas-autarquicas-entregues-ate-2-agosto-1971401)

- 2 August: Deadline to submit candidacies;
- 3 August: Drawing of the order of candidacies on the ballot for each municipality and parish;
- 14 August: Deadline to submit changes to the list of candidates;
- 14 to 25 September: Official campaign period;
- 21 to 22 September: Early voting for voters infected with Covid or in Confinement;
- 26 September: Election day. Polls open between 8 am and 8 pm. (In Azores, polls will stay open one more hour due to the time difference.)

Unlike the Presidential and General elections, there will not be early voting for all voters.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on July 22, 2021, 12:48:16 PM
2021 local elections: Since 1976, 31 municipalities have never changed hands. They are:


Quote
There are 31 municipalities (10% of the total) that since 1976 (or since its creation later) have never changed their political color. Of these (mostly small municipalities), three stand out with more than 100,000 inhabitants: Odivelas (PS), Santa Maria da Feira (PSD) and Seixal (CDU).

* Odivelas was created in 1998, so it's a relatively new municipality. Therefore, Seixal is the biggest that hasn't change political party since 1976.
Could any of that change this year?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 22, 2021, 01:23:15 PM

Those in the North and Center, PS and PSD, are very unlikely to change in my view. Maybe those more on the South, in the Santarém region, but still unlikely. Those who could actually change are the PCP ones: Seixal could change, Montemor-o-Novo as well. Reguengos could also be in play as there's a really toxic political environment over there. In Lisbon district, Torres Vedras could also change as there is an Independent candidate who could win against the PS. Portimão could be in play a bit, but it's still unlikely to change.

Curiously, recent polling from cities across the country is showing a remarkable stability and the results are almost identical to 2017.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 22, 2021, 05:10:49 PM
ICS/ISCTE poll for Lisbon city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-07-22-Autarquicas-se-as-eleicoes-fossem-hoje-Fernando-Medina-era-reeleito-em-Lisboa-a35823a1) - PS incumbent; 510,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

42% PS (nc)
31% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-1)
  8% BE (+1)
  6% CDU (-3)
  4% CHEGA (new)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% IL (new)
  4% Others/Invalid (-3)

Poll conducted between 3 and 18 July 2021. Polled 803 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on July 22, 2021, 07:10:19 PM
is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 22, 2021, 07:41:59 PM
is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, (https://www.dn.pt/portugal/ideal-monarquico-esta-a-seduzir-simpatizantes-do-bloco-e-do-pcp-8955969.html) there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy (https://www.marktest.com/wap/a/n/id~1650.aspx), while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, (https://www.dn.pt/portugal/portugueses-optam-com-clareza-pela-republica-1518829.html) had support for the monarchy at just 11%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 23, 2021, 10:45:52 AM
CHEGA members, including the mayoral candidate, involved in an Homophobic attack in Viseu city:


Quote
Human rights: Homophobic insults end in physical aggression between Chega members and business worker in Viseu

It was a complicated night, yesterday, in Viseu city. A group of CHEGA members insulted with homophobic slurs and physically attacked a man that worked in a coffee shop bellow the CHEGA headquarters in the same city. According to witnesses, the group started to insult the man which ended in a fight between both sides. The man, a coffee shop worker that works in the shop bellow the party's headquarters, says the insults have been constant even though he's straight and married. He accuses the CHEGA candidate for mayor of Viseu, Pedro Calheiros, of watching and even grabbing him, while other witness say Mr Calheiros tried to end the scene. The police arrived at the scene and identified the people involved in the fight and they are now investigating the situation. CHEGA party has already reacted to this situation by saying they have "full trust in their candidates" and that they are now waiting for the police investigation to "make a stance", adding that they reject acts of violence in any circumstances.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on July 23, 2021, 12:45:19 PM
is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, (https://www.dn.pt/portugal/ideal-monarquico-esta-a-seduzir-simpatizantes-do-bloco-e-do-pcp-8955969.html) there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy (https://www.marktest.com/wap/a/n/id~1650.aspx), while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, (https://www.dn.pt/portugal/portugueses-optam-com-clareza-pela-republica-1518829.html) had support for the monarchy at just 11%.
communist monarchists?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on July 23, 2021, 02:28:40 PM
I know one member of PPM. As far as I'm aware he doesn't care about the monarchy in the slightest.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 23, 2021, 02:59:11 PM

Yep, it seems that there are a few of them.

I know one member of PPM. As far as I'm aware he doesn't care about the monarchy in the slightest.

I actually don't know any PPM member, but yeah, PPM is much more an environmental prone party due to Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles. The split between him and PPM, led to the formation of MPT - Earth Party. PPM members may like the idea of monarchy but that's a non issue in Portugal.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 24, 2021, 07:24:58 AM
With the elections just 2 months away, the floodgates of hilarious campaign posters have opened:

CHEGA can fly....


BE has a very strong candidate in this parish...


Vote for Lara's husband. Whoever she may be: :D


If someone is available, the PSD is looking for a candidate in this parish (Jason Statham was unavailable) xD xD


From the Facebook account of "Tesourinhos das Autárquicas 2021" (Treasures of the 2021 Local Elections) https://www.facebook.com/escrutinarasautarquicas2013/

Also, PSD-Seixal is really giving it all against "Socialism", "Maoism", "Communism", you name it:

1st poster:
Quote
After 45 years of eating rice, will you vote for the same old ones?
2nd poster:
Quote
It's time for democrats to give a mustache to the Communists.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 24, 2021, 06:02:09 PM
2021 local elections: Costa enters in the campaign trail with the recovery plan as an election trump card:


Quote
Costa hits the road to fire up local candidates. With a trump card: European money

Party leaders have been hitting the campaign trail hard in the last few days, from left to right. This weekend, PM Costa is hitting the road with 7 campaign stops across the country to fire up PS local candidates. The PM is using as his trump card the money that the European recovery plan will give to Portugal. Costa is pressing the message that in the next seven years, Portugal will receive double the money it received since 1986 and that this is a historic opportunity. Costa is promissing a lot of new infrastructures like dams, new roads and money to attract businesses to create a lot of jobs in rural parts of the country.

However, the plan it self isn't consensual. The rightwing opposition criticizes the plan as it, according to them, is to focused on government spending and has very little for businesses. President Marcelo has also been, in private, very critical of the plan labeling it as "the plan that was possible" (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-07-08-Marcelo-cetico-e-critico-do-PRR-e-do-Governo-em-reunioes-com-empresarios-f5730f29) and that his sceptic about the government's path that has no reforms and forecasts an anemic growth for Portugal.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 24, 2021, 07:33:13 PM
ICS/ISCTE poll for Lisbon city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-07-22-Autarquicas-se-as-eleicoes-fossem-hoje-Fernando-Medina-era-reeleito-em-Lisboa-a35823a1) - PS incumbent; 510,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

42% PS (nc)
31% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-1)
  8% BE (+1)
  6% CDU (-3)
  4% CHEGA (new)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% IL (new)
  4% Others/Invalid (-3)

Poll conducted between 3 and 18 July 2021. Polled 803 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 3.50%.

Interesting crosstabs of this poll for the Lisbon election:

- No "gender gap" currently;
- Big "age gap", younger voters voting PSD or basically tied between PS-PSD, older voters massively voting PS;
- Voters with no High school degree vote by a big margin in the PS, while voters with a college degree clearly prefer the PSD. Voters with a High school degree basically split between both sides;
- Voters with good living conditions vote easily in the PSD and those who can manage well are divided. Those who find it hard to make ends meet vote massively in the PS;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 25, 2021, 06:57:32 AM
Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho, the highly controversial April captain, died at the age of 84:


Quote
The captain of Abril Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho has died

Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho died this morning at the age of 84. He had been hospitalized with a heart problem. Mr Otelo was a very controversial figure in Portugal. As the mastermind behind the 25 April 1974 revolution, he was crucial for the success of the revolution but divisions within the army movement made Otelo even more radical. During this time he was leader of COPCON, an entity which is accused of arresting and torturing moderate people during the revolution. After the 25 November 1975 coup, Otelo was removed from all posts and was a candidate for the 1976 Presidential election where he polled second with 16% of the votes. He ran again in 1980, but only got 1.5% of the votes.

During the 80's he was part of the far-left terrorist organisation, FP-25, which murdered 17 people and bombed several buildings like banks and offices. He was arrested in 1984 and lost all his military credentials. He was pardoned in 1996.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Velasco on July 26, 2021, 07:44:08 AM
Rest in peace Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho  the captain of April


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 26, 2021, 08:27:30 AM
Rest in peace Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho  the captain of April

He was a very complex person and the reactions to his death were all very careful and weighted. Like I said in the post, he was very controversial, and in my view, he personifies the very best and the very worst of the revolution: the best because he planned the revolution and without his leadership and intervention it would probably failed, but at the same time his role after the revolution showed his naivety and lack of political ideology that led him to rather dark paths.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Velasco on July 26, 2021, 09:51:48 AM
Rest in peace Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho  the captain of April

He was a very complex person and the reactions to his death were all very careful and weighted. Like I said in the post, he was very controversial, and in my view, he personifies the very best and the very worst of the revolution: the best because he planned the revolution and without his leadership and intervention it would probably failed, but at the same time his role after the revolution showed his naivety and lack of political ideology that led him to rather dark paths.

To be honest, my knowkedge of his figure is superficial. But I got he was key in the success of the revolution, as well a complex and controversial person. Revolutionaires are not neccessarily good politicians after the revolution succeeds, but probably they are neccessary at these critical moments of regime change


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 27, 2021, 12:00:56 PM
Novo Banco parliamentary committee final report: PS votes against their own report after the opposition forced changes in the draft report.


Quote
Novo Banco: Final report of the inquiry commission approved with the against vote of the PS

The final chapter of the controversial Novo Banco parliamentary committee has become very political. The committee proved, after a lot of controversial and high profile hearings, that the former BES, now Novo Banco, made a series of loans that ruined the bank and that led to its demise in 2014. How the bank was "saved" and how it was sold afterwards was also analysed. But, the final report has now created a feud between the PS and the rest of the opposition, left to right. The initial report, written by a PS MP, removed any responsibility of the current PS government regarding the 2017 sale of the bank to an American fund, saying the government couldn't have done more. Opposition parties accused the PS of trying to "whitewash" their responsibilities in the sale of the bank. The opposition announced it would reject the report if no changes were made and forced several changes that would blame the current PS and former PSD government in the bank's fate. The opposition changes were all passed and only the PS voted against them. The Socialists are furious and accuse the Opposition of a "political attack" and they blame the PSD and BE for making up "false conclusions". These parties say the report is now more balanced and distributes the blame between both the major parties.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on July 30, 2021, 12:13:35 PM
2021 Local elections update:

- As the deadline to submit candidacies nears, the deadline is next Monday, problems are surging in some areas. In the PSD, it was announced that the party will not present a candidacy on Mortágua, Viseu district, after the incumbent PSD mayor refused to run again (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/psd-sem-candidato-em-mortagua_n1339214). Because the announcement was too late, the party failed to find a candidate in time to run. The national PSD is trying to find a solution for Mortágua; (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/psd-em-contra-relogio-para-assegurar-lista-a-mortagua)

- In the PS, there's also problems in Maia city. The PS candidate, Francisco Vieira Carvalho, is still dividing the local party and it was announced that the Courts have rejected the PS-JPP coalition for Maia (https://www.noticiasmaia.com/eleicao-autarquicas-na-maia-tribunal-constitucional-chumba-coligacao-ps-jpp/) on the grounds that the coalition papers have several errors and lack information. The deadline to submit coalitions was 23 July, but the PS will have time to fix the errors;

- CHEGA is seeing a lot of their candidates involved in controversies. In the last few days, local media has been revealing the past of some CHEGA candidates, for example, in Vendas Novas, Évora, the CHEGA candidate has a business that sells anti-witchcraft products (https://observador.pt/2021/07/23/candidata-autarquica-do-chega-da-consultas-de-tarot-e-vende-produtos-contra-bruxaria/), and the candidate of Reguengos de Monsaraz is accused of not paying debts he owes. There seems to be also problems in several CHEGA candidacies in Leiria with some dropping out;

- An independent candidate in a Braga parish is back with the same tactic he used in 2017, giving Chorizos (https://ominho.pt/candidato-em-braga-entrega-assinaturas-e-oferece-chouricos-e-azeite-no-tribunal/), a pork sausage, to voters. João Seco Magalhães made headlines in 2017, for giving voters, during the campaign, chorizos. He got 27% of the votes and was just 300 votes behind the PSD in that parish. Now, he's using the same tactic and is running again for the same parish. Lets see if it will work this time ;) ;

More updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 03, 2021, 01:38:26 PM
DA accuses Ventura of crime of disobedience for holding a rally with 170 people during the State of Emergency in January and puts him under identity control:


Quote
DA accuses Ventura of disobedience for having dinner with 170 people and puts him with a term of identity and residence

The DA office has accused André Ventura, CHEGA leader, other CHEGA party members and the owners of a restaurant of crimes of disobedience by violating the State of Emergency rules because of the controversial rally of 170 people during the January Presidential election in Braga. The DA says that the owners, under the State of Emergency rules at the time, could not hold the rally and they refute Ventura's defence that campaign activities where allowed by saying that the State of Emergency only allowed campaign events in space with ventilation, like arenas and other spacious buildings, and not a restaurant with no ventilation. The DA has put Ventura and the other formally accused under identity control in which they have to report to the police where they are or where they're going. The case will now go to trial.

Ventura has already reacted by saying that the DA accusation looks like "political persecution" and that this a sad day for justice in Portugal.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 04, 2021, 08:40:28 AM
Another one from CHEGA: Candidate for Caminha village out of the race because he delivered his candidacy papers in the wrong place.


Quote
CHEGA out of the Caminha race because their candidate submitted the lists in the wrong place

The CHEGA candidate for Caminha, a village in the border with Spain, is out of the race because he submitted his party's lists in the wrong place. According to the CHEGA-Viana do Castelo district party, Mr. Carlos Gomes Pinto, the candidate, submitted the candidacy in Caminha City Hall and was convinced everything was right as the city hall employee who attended him, confirmed the reception of the lists, said everything was in order and then Mr Pinto left. CHEGA says it's weird that the City Hall didn't inform the candidate he was in the wrong place nor did they notified him about the mistake. Candidate lists have to be submitted in the local Courts.

One thing is certain: the CHEGA candidate is an idiot, but it's unclear if the city hall employee is also an idiot or if he/she screwed with the CHEGA candidate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 06, 2021, 08:49:27 AM
Don't know how it's in other countries, but in Portugal, party lists aren't published in an official website or released by parties, but printed in tons of papers and fixed on the facade of the courts:

An example:


Very prehistoric. But, it is what it is.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 06, 2021, 09:37:45 AM
Still happens a lot in this country (usually with town halls/civic centres rather than courts) Though yes most people will look online for such things nowadays.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 06, 2021, 10:02:55 AM
Still happens a lot in this country (usually with town halls/civic centres rather than courts) Though yes most people will look online for such things nowadays.

Interesting. The debate here is that the process to file a candidacy is very bureaucratic and there's no digital way to send it, it has to be by hand and on paper. How is the filling of candidacies in the UK? Also by hand and paper?

Also, I'm actually trying to compile a map with the candidacies by each of the main party/coalition in this election. I'm still half way as there's not a lot of info yet. The electoral commission normally publishes the ballot distribution by municipality. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 08, 2021, 02:13:27 PM
André Ventura is infected with Covid-19. He hasn't received a vaccine yet.


Quote
Coronavirus: André Ventura infected with covid-19. CHEGA leader is not vaccinated

André Ventura, CHEGA's leader, is infected with Covid-19 after two rapid tests he did came out positive. He had contact with an infected person on Friday, during a CHEGA rally in Porto city. He is now in isolation and will conduct a PCR test tomorrow. He also confirmed reports that he was not vaccinated yet, even though he can have a vaccine whenever he wants, as people with his age can receive a vaccine at any time.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 09, 2021, 12:20:37 PM
André Ventura is infected with Covid-19. He hasn't received a vaccine yet.

The media is reporting that the PCR test also come out positive (https://rr.sapo.pt/noticia/politica/2021/08/09/teste-confirma-covid-19-andre-ventura-com-sintomas-ligeiros-da-doenca/249030/?utm_medium=rss) and that Ventura has mild symptoms of Covid like cough and back pain. He will remain in isolation.

The media is also discussing the weird and contradictory explanations given by Ventura for not taking the vaccine, prompting the question if Ventura himself is anti-vaxx, something CHEGA tries to distance, even though many CHEGA supporters insult high profile CHEGA members who have taken the vaccine.

Update: Ok, CHEGA has gone full crazy QAnon style:

Posted on the Facebook page of CHEGA-Vila Real:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-08-09-Chega-de-Vila-Real-diz-que-funcionarios-do-Governo-no-centro-de-vacinacao-iam-tentar-injetar-veneno-a-Ventura-d21f8f03)
Quote
(...)
Now we have to give our strength and our prayers for him to come back well and even stronger. Many want him to die, but we are stronger and he will beat the disease and prove that she can't beat CHEGA. Our Lady of Fatima is with him and will not allow one of her chosen ones to succumb to a disease created in China to destroy CHEGA.

They say he hasn't had the vaccine. We cannot criticize him. Do you doubt that if André arrived at the vaccination center full of employees of the socialist government of António Costa they wouldn't try to inject him with poison as soon as they realized it was him? You can't be too careful and I recommend CHEGA activists not to identify themselves as such when they are going to get the vaccine. We annoy a lot of people and they will do anything to stop us. Be careful.
(...)

::) ::) ::)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 10, 2021, 10:44:51 AM
Update: Ok, CHEGA has gone full crazy QAnon style:

Posted on the Facebook page of CHEGA-Vila Real:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-08-09-Chega-de-Vila-Real-diz-que-funcionarios-do-Governo-no-centro-de-vacinacao-iam-tentar-injetar-veneno-a-Ventura-d21f8f03)
Quote
(...)
Now we have to give our strength and our prayers for him to come back well and even stronger. Many want him to die, but we are stronger and he will beat the disease and prove that she can't beat CHEGA. Our Lady of Fatima is with him and will not allow one of her chosen ones to succumb to a disease created in China to destroy CHEGA.

They say he hasn't had the vaccine. We cannot criticize him. Do you doubt that if André arrived at the vaccination center full of employees of the socialist government of António Costa they wouldn't try to inject him with poison as soon as they realized it was him? You can't be too careful and I recommend CHEGA activists not to identify themselves as such when they are going to get the vaccine. We annoy a lot of people and they will do anything to stop us. Be careful.
(...)

::) ::) ::)

Another update: CHEGA will file a complaint against the content of the Facebook page who posted that Ventura would be poisoned if vaccinated. (https://observador.pt/2021/08/10/chega-diz-que-pagina-de-vila-real-e-falsa-e-vai-apresentar-queixa-as-autoridades/) The party says the account is false and has already sent complaints in the past because of this "fake" page. The party rejects the content of the post.

At the same time, Ventura is going to social media to say he has doubts about the efficiency of the vaccines (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-08-10-Ventura-diz-ter-duvidas-sobre-as-vacinas-Milhoes-de-cidadaos-querem-saber-mais-eu-sou-mais-um-503765e2) and wants more info, like millions of people. What a trainwreck.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 10, 2021, 02:07:46 PM
2021 Local elections update:

- The PSD is trying to stop Santana Lopes independent candidacy in Figueira da Foz. (https://observador.pt/2021/08/10/psd-impugna-em-tribunal-candidatura-de-santana-lopes-a-figueira-da-foz/) The party has filed a request to the local Court to bar Santana Lopes from running. The party says the candidate is violating election law by having different names for his candidacy in his papers and that Santana doesn't have enough signatures. During last weekend it was also reported that Santana Lopes used the address of a local fishmonger as his Figueira residence in order to run for mayor. The Court has 24 hours to submit a ruling;

- There's an ongoing controversy as many mayors are being accused of using their personal social media accounts to publish their work as mayors. The mayor of Cascais, Carlos Carreiras, was forced by the CNE to remove from his personal account posts regarding his work as mayor. Mr Carreiras reacted by sending this order from CNE to the Courts. But mayors in other places are using Covid vaccination centers to promote their work as mayors (https://www.publico.pt/2021/08/06/politica/noticia/carrinhas-videos-promocionais-salas-vacinacao-autarcas-ignoram-lei-eleitoral-1973220) with promotional videos, which is also controversial;

- More polling was also released from two big cities, Leiria and Matosinhos. One poll from Vila Franca de Xira (138,000 inhabitants) is expected this Thursday:

IPOM poll for Leiria city (https://www.erc.pt/download/YToyOntzOjg6ImZpY2hlaXJvIjtzOjQyOiJtZWRpYS9zb25kYWdlbnMvb2JqZWN0b19vZmZsaW5lLzEwMTUuMy5wZGYiO3M6NjoidGl0dWxvIjtzOjE5OiIyLWZyZXF1ZW5jaWEtbGVpcmlhIjt9/2-frequencia-leiria) - PS incumbent, 129,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election)

58.7% PS (+4.2)
19.3% PSD (-7.7)
10.0% CHEGA (new)
   4.0% CDU (+1.6)
   2.7% BE (nc)
   0.7% CDS (-4.3)
   4.7% Others/Invalid (-3.7)

Poll conducted between 9 and 12 July 2021. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.10%.

Intercampus poll for Matosinhos city (https://www.erc.pt/download/YToyOntzOjg6ImZpY2hlaXJvIjtzOjQyOiJtZWRpYS9zb25kYWdlbnMvb2JqZWN0b19vZmZsaW5lLzEwMTguMi5wZGYiO3M6NjoidGl0dWxvIjtzOjI0OiJmaWNoYS10ZWNuaWNhLW1hdG9zaW5ob3MiO30=/ficha-tecnica-matosinhos) - PS incumbent, 174,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election)

42.8% PS (+6.5)
10.2% PSD (-1.7)
  7.0% António Parada (-8.2)
   6.5% BE (+1.9)
   5.8% CHEGA (new)
   4.3% CDU (-2.4)
   1.1% PAN (-2.1)
   1.1% CDS (new)
  0.7% Joaquim Jorge (new)
  0.0% Humberto Silva (new)
20.5% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 28 June and 20 July 2021. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 11, 2021, 01:37:36 PM
What the hell is this? ;D ;D


Quote
Today I start a campaign that will try the impossible: show that politicians are not all the same. If you too give everything for Oeiras, join us at http://adartudoporoeiras.pt
Quote
Giving everything for Oeiras. Alexandre Poço

Poster from the PSD candidate for Oeiras city. I don't know what's worse, the slogan, the pose, everything.xD  This year's election posters are setting a new level of cringe.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 12, 2021, 09:11:22 AM
2021 local elections campaign budgets:  (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/partidos-preveem-gastar-31-milhoes-de-euros-nas-autarquicas-de-setembro)

By party/coalitions:

11,430,000€ PS
  9,855,000€ PSD+coalitions
  5,390,000€ CDU
     989,000€ BE
     749,000€ CDS
     646,000€ CHEGA
     343,000€ NC
     321,000€ IL
     168,000€ PAN
       30,700€ Livre
       20,000€ PPM
         9,000€ RIR
         5,500€ MPT
         2,500€ PDR
         2,200€ PTP
         1,600€ E (former PNR)
         1,500€ MAS
         1,050€ PCTP/MRPP        
  2,639,000€ Independents

32,604,050€ Total

Volt, JPP and Alliance didn't present their budgets yet.

By mayoral race: (Big cities like Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Coimbra)  (https://expresso.pt/autarquicas-2021/2021-08-11-Autarquicas-Campanha-para-Lisboa-e-a-que-preve-maior-orcamento.-Nos-gastos-Moedas-ganha-a-Medina-2854babd)

Lisbon:

300,000€ PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance
236,500€ PS/Livre
100,000€ CDU
  59,000€ BE
  41,000€ IL
  33,000€ PAN
  16,000€ CHEGA

795,000€ Total

Porto:

316,000€ Rui Moreira
200,000€ PSD
167,000€ PS
  57,000€ CDU
  48,000€ BE
  16,000€ CHEGA
  14,500€ PAN
  10,000€ PPM
    4,600€ Livre
       400€ E (former PNR)

833,500€ Total

Setúbal:

140,000€ CDU
  75,000€ PS
  61,000€ NC/PPM
  46,000€ PSD
  16,000€ BE
  12,000€ CDS
  10,000€ RIR/PDR
    8,000€ CHEGA
    6,000€ IL
    3,000€ PAN

378,000€ Total

Coimbra:

114,400€ PS
100,000€ PSD/CDS/NC/PPM/Alliance/RIR/Volt
  50,000€ CDU
  30,000€ CpC (Independent)
    8,000€ CHEGA
    4,000€ IL
    2,095€ PAN
    1,500€ PDR/MPT

310,000€ Total


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 13, 2021, 08:30:45 AM
2021 election debates: RTP to host 24 debates, SIC and TVI will focus on Lisbon and Porto mainly.


Quote
Local elections: Lisbon and Porto with three scheduled debates, RTP makes 24

TV networks are finalizing the debate schedule for the 2021 local elections. The debate season will kick off on RTP, but SIC will start with a debate between the main candidates for Lisbon city on 2 September: PS, PSD, CDU, BE, CHEGA, IL and PAN. The next day, there will be a debate between the candidates for Porto city: Rui Moreira, PS, PSD, CDU, BE, CHEGA and PAN. SIC plans to host at least 4 more debates in other highly contested races. TVI will host at least two debates with the candidates for Porto and Lisbon, still with no date.

RTP will host the most debates. The public network will host 18 debates for the 20 capital district races, and 4 more debates on these races: Almada, Odemira, Amadora and Figueira da Foz. The debates will start in 10 days, on 23 August and will end on 15 September with the Lisbon debate. In the previous day, 14 September, the Porto debate will be broadcast.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 14, 2021, 05:15:27 AM
2021 local elections new polling:

Pitagórica poll for Vila Franca de Xira city - PS incumbent, 138,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

36.5% PS (-2.6)
31.2% CDU (+0.7)
10.2% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT (-3.4)
   7.0% BE (nc)
   6.3% CHEGA (new)
   3.5% PAN (-0.4)
   5.3% Others/Invalid (-0.6)

Poll conducted between 30 July and 3 August 2021. Polled 402 voters.

Eurosondagem poll for Figueira da Foz city (https://observador.pt/2021/08/14/sondagem-da-vitoria-a-santana-lopes-na-figueira/) - PS incumbent, 59,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

38.0% Pedro Santana Lopes (new)
34.3% PS (-15.7)
   8.6% PSD (-19.9)
  3.8% BE (-0.5)
   2.8% CHEGA (new)
   1.5% CDS (-0.3)
   1.3% CDU (-5.2)
  9.7% Others/Invalid (+0.9)

Poll conducted between 1 and 2 August 2021. Polled 1,048 voters. MoE of 3.00%.

I'm starting to think that CDU will actually increase compared with 2017, which is contrary to the downwards trend of the coalition in national polls, interesting. The Figueira da Foz poll... WOW!, but it's from Eurosondagem and it's better to wait for another polling company to confirm this.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 17, 2021, 08:37:12 AM
- And finally, there's another "war" between President/Opposition and the Government brewing:

The media is reporting, today, that the government is preparing yet another legal battle between them and President Marcelo/Opposition because of two bills regarding teachers hirings. In a showdown that resembles the one in 2019, where the government forced the opposition to drop a bill regarding teachers wages under the threat of Costa's resignation as PM, the President signed a bill, passed by the opposition against the wishes of the government, that forces the government to open hirings of teachers for artistic schools. The other bill, still not signed by Marcelo but he seems ready to sign it also, forces the government to review teachers recruitment regime in Basic Education. The government is furious, once again, and threatens to take these bills to the Court, as they argue that Parliament violated the Constitution by passing bills that are the sole responsibility of the government.

President Marcelo has already reacted by saying he's not worried by the threat from Costa's government and that he's "peacefully doing doctrine" and being consistent with what he has done on other occasions." Marcelo is also being criticized for his reaction to the Courts ruling on social supports, as Marcelo said "he is also happy with the decision of the Court."

The Government confirms they have sent the Teachers bill to the Constitutional Court:


Quote
Teachers: Powers of Minority Governments Part II: Government sends law on teachers recruitment to the Constitutional Court

The Government threatened and they did it. The bills on teachers hirings and recruitments are now in the Constitutional Court after the Government sent them. The bills were approved against the wishes of the government and signed by President Marcelo, but Costa's government says the bills violate the Constitution as, like above mentioned, Parliament ruled on something that is the sole responsibility of the government.

This is the 2nd time in less than 6 months that Government sends a bill, approved against their wishes, to the Court. The other one, regarding social supports for independent workers affected by the pandemic, the Court sided with Costa against President Marcelo and the Opposition.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 19, 2021, 10:42:15 AM
2021 local election update:

- There is an ongoing brawl between PS and PSD in Seixal (https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/743749/seixal-comunistas-e-socialistas-oferecem-tareia-a-candidato-do-psd-?seccao=Portugal_i). The PSD-Seixal, which has become news for its irreverent campaign of putting the faces of Stalin, Che Guevara and others in party posters against the PCP, is now in a middle of a big dispute with the PS. It all started when the PSD started "changing" the street names of people or events involved in the 25 April revolution, and this created a furious reaction by the PS and PCP. A PCP councillor from Seixal posted on social media "Someone should "go after these bastards and hit them in the snout". He regretted posting it and now apologizes, but a PS MP, José Magalhães, also wrote on social media that someone should hit them but added however: "Some therapeutic sticks wouldn't solve the problem". Unlike the PCP councillor, the PS MP isn't backing down and the PSD has presented a complaint against the Socialist MP;

- The mayor of Vila Nova de Gaia, Eduardo Vítor Rodrigues (PS), is being accused of forging his doctoral dissertation. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-08-19-Suspeito-de-autoplagio-na-dissertacao-de-doutoramento-presidente-da-Camara-de-Gaia-nega-acusacoes-ba276097) Expresso newspaper said the the University of Porto received a complaint that said that Mr Rodrigues self-plagiarized his own dissertation and didn't mentioned in the references. The mayor is refusing the claims and that all the texts are from his authorship, so there isn't a case. In next month local elections, Mr Rodrigues is expected to be reelected in a landslide, again;

- In Figueira da Foz, a recent poll has shaken things a lot. Santana's lead over PS and PSD is creating surprise, and Santana Lopes is now accusing PS and PSD of having a "secret pact" to defeat him. (https://observador.pt/2021/08/18/santana-lopes-acusa-psd-e-ps-de-terem-pacto-contra-a-sua-candidatura-na-figueira-da-foz/) The PSD tried to stop his candidacy, but they only succeeded in banning the name of Santana Lopes from being on the ballot papers, not forbidding his movement to run;

Other updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 20, 2021, 10:16:41 AM
Aximage poll for Funchal city (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/sondagem-aponta-para-conquista-da-camara-do-funchal-pelo-psd-e-cds-com-maioria-absoluta-775669) - PS/BE incumbent, 106,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %:

38.8% PSD/CDS
24.7% PS/BE/PAN/MPT/PDR
  3.1% CHEGA
  1.9% PTP
  0.6% PPM
  0.4% JPP
  0.4% CDU
30.1% Others/Undecided

Poll conducted between 13 and 17 August 2021. Polled 380 voters in Funchal city.

*Polls in Funchal are all over the place...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 20, 2021, 01:43:57 PM
Costa to decide only in 2023 if he will run for a 3rd term:


Quote
Costa will only decide a re-run in 2023 and sees equal successors in PS

In an interview to Expresso newspaper, PM António Costa rejected that there's a tabu about a possible 3rd term run in 2023, but at the same time, said that he will only decide in 2023 what he will do. He added that he feels energized to govern in this period but also said that the PS has very capable people able to take the job of PS leader and Prime Minister. The PS will hold this year's party congress in the last weekend of August, 28-29 August, in Portimão city, Algarve. Pundits talk about rumours that Costa plans not to run in 2023 in order to become President of the European Council and succeed Charles Michel. But, currently it's only pundit talk.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 22, 2021, 10:35:29 AM
Not a lot of political news or campaign info as the main party leaders are still on vacation and only during the mid of this week will some party leaders start their "tours" across the country.

And, the main headlines from the local election campaign are, as usual, the weird and hilarious campaign posters from across the country. In the last few days, a PSD poster from Fornos de Algodres, Guarda, is dominating social media. Here it is:



Matança is a parish in Fornos de Algodres. "Matança" means slaughter and "Fornos" means ovens. So, you can see how ridiculous the slogans are: "All for the Slaughter, Slaughter for all" and "Ovens for all".
8) 8)

At the same time, there's a lot of reports of vandalism of campaign posters from across the country. Several campaign posters of PS, PSD, CDU, CHEGA and Independent movements have been torn apart or vandalized. Today, the PS candidate for Porto city filed a complaint because one of his posters in Porto was completely destroyed:


Quote
PS posters in Porto were vandalized.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 26, 2021, 09:47:52 AM
2021 local elections update:

Some party candidacies are now in legal battles between courts. Here's the update:

- In Figueira da Foz, CHEGA saw their candidacy rejected because of several error found in the applications (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/tribunal-rejeita-candidatura-do-chega-a-camara-da-figueira-da-foz_n1344194). This is the 2nd case in the party, the other being the debacle in Caminha. The local Court rejected the candidacy, but the party has appealed to the Constitutional Court;

- Also in Figueira da Foz, the ongoing legal battle between Santana Lopes and the PSD continues. After the PSD won a "half victory" when the Court said that Santana could not have his name on the ballot but only his movement name, the PSD is pressing again for the exclusion of Santana because of errors on his signature papers. The local Court rejected the PSD claims, but the party has also appealed to the Constitutional Court (https://zap.aeiou.pt/psd-da-figueira-da-foz-vai-recorrer-ao-constitucional-contra-candidatura-de-santana-lopes-426992);

- In Coimbra city, the PS also tried to stop the mega PSD-led coalition from being accepted by the Courts. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-08-23-Tribunal-de-Coimbra-valida-coligacao-de-sete-partidos-Decisao-inedita-que-representa-inovacao-no-sistema-politico-diz-Jose-Manuel-Silva-90b02189) However, the local Court rejected the PS claims of irregularities in the PSD candidacy and accepted the PSD mega coalition, with CDS, NC, PPM, Alliance, RIR and Volt Portugal. At the same time, CHEGA has sent an appeal to the Constitutional Court (https://www.noticiasdecoimbra.pt/chega-exige-que-tribunal-constitucional-rejeite-candidaturas-do-ps-em-coimbra/) in order to struck down the PS lists in Coimbra city, because of alledge errors in the candidacy files;

- In Madeira, the PS tried to block CDU, JPP, IL and RIR from running in the elections (https://www.dnoticias.pt/2021/8/10/272509-ps-madeira-tambem-impugnou-candidatura-do-jpp-cdu-ptp-e-iniciativa-liberal/). The Socialists argued that these 4 parties had several errors and illegalities in their candidacies, but the local Court rejected the PS arguments;

- There's also an ongoing controversy because of President Marcelo's veto of a PS/PCP change (https://www.publico.pt/2021/08/24/politica/noticia/presidente-veta-perdao-autarcas-processos-violacao-regras-gestao-financeira-1975161) in the local government financial recovery plan (PAEL). This plan was created during the Troika years to help municipalities in near bankruptcy and, in exchange for a government bailout, municipalities were forbidden to cut taxes or increase spending. In 6 municipalities, 5 from the PS and one from PCP, the incumbent mayors didn't follow the plan and are facing the risk of losing their mandates. In July, the PS/PCP passed a change in the plan that would pardon these 6 mayors, which received the against votes of PSD, BE, CDS, PAN, CHEGA and IL. President Marcelo has now vetoed the change saying that this change will interfere with the election results of 26 September;

- In other news, the PSD mayor of Albufeira, and running for reelection, José Carlos Rolo, was rushed to hospital, yesterday, because of a pulmonary infection (https://www.publico.pt/2021/08/25/sociedade/noticia/presidente-camara-albufeira-internado-urgencia-infeccao-pulmonar-1975269), not related with Covid-19 it seems.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 27, 2021, 05:14:35 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/infograficos/detalhe/intencao-de-voto-agora-e-em-comparacao-com-julho?ref=Infogr%C3%A1ficos_DestaquesPrincipais)

Vote share %:

34.7% PS (-0.1)
25.1% PSD (+1.7)
  9.1% BE (+0.1)
  7.5% CHEGA (-1.5)
  6.1% IL (+3.0)
  5.4% CDU (-1.3)
  3.5% PAN (-1.0)
  1.6% CDS (-1.2)
  0.2% Livre (-0.4)
  6.8% Others/Invalid (+0.7)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.1 António Costa (+0.1)
2.8 Rui Rio (+0.1)
2.8 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
2.7 Inês Sousa Real (-0.1)
2.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
2.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.4 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
1.9 André Ventura (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 13 and 20 August 2021. Polled 612 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 27, 2021, 08:10:33 PM
PS Congress this weekend in Portimão, Algarve, with the succession of Costa in the air:


Quote
Re-elected with more than 90% in the June elections, António Costa will share the spotlight with potential successors at this weekend's PS magna meeting

Costa created a tabu about his situation in 2023 and the media is exploring possible outcomes for the PS future after Costa. The 4 main candidates to succeed Costa will be front and center in the Congress: Pedro Nuno Santos, Fernando Medina, Ana Catarina Mendes and Mariana Vieira da Silva will be seated in the main platform in the Congress, next to Costa. Very little is expected from the Congress as Costa's lead in the polls is steady, although narrowing a bit, and Costa's recent tabu about 2023 has calmed the party. However, what his possible successors will say will be interesting, although, at least, Pedro Nuno Santos will not speak to party delegates. What could the future lie ahead for the PS? Well, pundits are split in whether Costa will indeed run for another term in 2023 as there is the rumour he could succeed Charles Michel as EU Council President. Others suggest that Costa doesn't want that and will run in 2023 but possibly resign in 2025 in order to run for the 2026 Presidential elections.

Only time will tell, but a future Costa exit from the PS leadership could create havoc in the party. At the same time, the PSD will also convene in the Algarves to host a local election forum where the main party candidates will speak, but some high profile mayors and candidates will not speak, sparking more discussions about the divisions within the party:


Quote
Carlos Carreiras, Fernando Ruas and Ricardo Rio without a stage in the local election forum

The main speakers will be Carlos Moedas from Lisbon, Vladimiro Feliz from Porto, Fernando Negrão from Setúbal and Suzana Garcia from Amadora. But high profile PSD mayors like Cascais mayor Carlos Carreiras and Braga mayor Ricardo Rio will not speak in the forum. At the moment, the PSD is a bit in an internal crisis with many PSD members predicting a catastrophic result on 26 September and that Rio's time is over. Some possible PSD leadership candidates, like Paulo Rangel, are supporting candidates across the country, while Luís Montenegro is silent and it's unclear of he will run. The PSD leadership elections are schedule for January 2022.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 28, 2021, 06:58:43 PM
Aximage poll for Porto city (https://www.dn.pt/edicao-do-dia/29-ago-2021/rui-moreira-com-47-pontos-de-vantagem-sobre-ps-e-psd-14070626.html) - Independent incumbent, 232,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election results)

59% Rui Moreira (+15)
12% PS (-17)
12% PSD (+2)
  6% CDU (nc)
  4% BE (-1)
  2% PAN (nc)
  1% CHEGA (new)
  4% Others/Invalid (+1)

Poll conducted between 12 and 19 August 2021. Polled 820 voters in Porto city. MoE of 3.42%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 29, 2021, 07:42:35 AM
PS congress ends with Costa's speech:

In his final speech to the PS congress (https://observador.pt/liveblogs/socialistas-reunidos-num-congresso-normal-com-sucessao-no-congelador/), Costa tried to mobilize the party for the upcoming local elections and asked for a strong victory.


Quote
Costa asks for a municipal victory and wants to give more "dignity" to young people

He went on to advise President Marcelo to have the same posture he had in his first term (2016-2021), and added by saying his proud of leading a "left alternative" and greeted PCP and BE. After asking for the mobilization of the party for the elections, Costa pressed on the decentralization of competences from national to local government and, for that reason, the PS needs a strong result as well for a good management of the Portuguese Recovery Plan. He went on to propose some measures for the upcoming 2022 budget like more focus on better working conditions for young workers, more affordable housing, and overall better working conditions to all workers. He also proposed expansion of kindergarten and for family support measures like tax deductions for a second child. Regarding the pandemic, he thanked all the NHS workers who fought against the virus but acknowledged the huge burden the pandemic had in education and proposed an almost 1 billion euros plan to recover learning for children. He ended his speech by saying that the PS doesn't have internal problems and and that this is a bummer for other parties and asked for a dignified and better future for all Portuguese.

Overall, the congress was quite boring. There was no major event from it and the discussion was all about Costa's succession in the leadership. Many congress speakers pressed that Costa can still lead the party in the next election, but Costa himself opened the door to other people to succeed him, like the Health minister Marta Temido. But, there was a "tense" moment with the most likely successor of Costa (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-08-28-Uma-questiuncula-chamada-Pedro-Nuno-Santos.-Ou-como-criar-um-facto-politico-sem-abrir-a-boca-13d4a757), Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos, during the congress. Mr Nuno Santos arrived late to the congress, well after his name was announced and his seat was left empty for a period of time which sparked discussion and, according to the media, upset Costa. When asked, Costa said that "maybe he had a flat tire or overslept" but he later gave an unusual complement to Pedro Nuno Santos about his management on the TAP airlines dossier saying that he's working really hard to defend the company. Pundits defend the idea that Costa gave the TAP dossier, a very toxic and complicated case, to Mr Nuno Santos in order to hurt his future political chances, and, in fact, until now the TAP dossier has become a trainwreck. During this morning, Pedro Nuno Santos tried to remain in silence but pressed by reporters he replied: "The general-secretary is a prankster", and said nothing more to the media.

The media is saying that the PS congress looks like a fairytale, but that the PS isn't proposing nothing for the future. Op-eds from Público newspaper and others (https://www.publico.pt/2021/08/28/politica/editorial/congresso-conto-fadas-1975580?ref=hp&cx=stories_a-congresso-do-ps-519067), say the Socialists are way to comfortable and confident about their current status and power and ignore discussing future policies and what's wrong in the country.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Josecardoso17 on August 29, 2021, 11:06:01 AM
António Costa wants Marta Temido to be the next leader ,i think.
I remember a scene at a event about transports here António Costa sent Pedro Nuno Santos to talk to protesters just to screw him xD


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 29, 2021, 11:17:33 AM
António Costa wants Marta Temido to be the next leader ,i think.
I remember a scene at a event about transports here António Costa sent Pedro Nuno Santos to talk to protesters just to screw him xD

Welcome back, José!!! :D Glad to see you're back!

Yeah, Costa definitely doesn't want Pedro Nuno Santos to be leader, but I think he will fail on that. My view is that Costa is just throwing names to the wall to see if they stick, but Nuno Santos has a lot of support in the party machine and he really, really wants to be leader. Like I said above, giving the toxic TAP dossier to Nuno Santos, was Costa's way of trying to screw him.

What I found astonishing is that Costa said that he will only decide in 2023 if he will run, but this congress and the discussions around it are just about who's next in line.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 29, 2021, 06:39:02 PM
Lisbon polls - PS incumbent, 545,000 inhabitants:

Eurosondagem poll (https://twitter.com/RuiPaiva5/status/1431632520534233100). Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

38.6% PS/Livre (-3.4)
26.9% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-4.9)
   7.7% CDU (-1.9)
   6.3% BE (-0.7)
   6.3% IL (new)
   4.8% CHEGA (new)
   3.3% PAN (+0.3)
   6.1% Others/Invalid (-0.4)

Poll conducted between 23 and 26 August 2021. Polled 2,225 voters in Lisbon city.

Aximage poll (https://www.dn.pt/edicao-do-dia/30-ago-2021/medina-com-24-pontos-de-vantagem-sobre-moedas-14072483.html). Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

51% PS/Livre (+9)
27% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-5)
   9% CDU (-1)
   4% BE (-3)
   2% CHEGA (new)
   2% PAN (-1)
   2% IL (new)
   3% Others/Invalid (-3)

Poll conducted between 14 and 21 August 2021. Polled 792 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 3.48%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 30, 2021, 11:50:06 AM
2021 local elections: Candidacies update.

Candidacies for the 2021 local elections are almost final, but in some places there are still some legal issues to be solved by Courts which could delay things. Nonetheless, this is the "almost final" map of candidacies of the 8 main parties plus Independents:

Candidacies by municipality:
()
Image link (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/14362_30_08_21_11_40_48.png)

Overall, the number of candidacies from all parties/coalitions are the following:

       3 Alliance
       1 Alliance/PDR
   124 BE
       1 BE/PAN/Volt/Livre
     89 CDS+other parties (PPM+MPT+Alliance+IL+NC+PDR+RIR)
       5 CDS/PSD+other parties (PPM+MPT+Alliance+IL+NC+PDR+RIR)
   305 CDU
   198 CHEGA
       3 E (former PNR)
     46 IL
       5 JPP
       8 Livre
       3 MAS
       1 MPT
       1 MPT/PDR
     22 NC
       9 NC+other parties (PPM+Alliance+RIR)
     41 PAN
       2 PCTP/MRPP
       1 PDR
       4 PDR+other parties (MPT+Alliance+RIR)
       1 PPM
   294 PS
       2 PS/Livre
       1 PS/BE/PAN/MPT/PDR
       3 PS+other parties (PAN/Livre/RIR)
   157 PSD+other parties (PPM+MPT+Alliance+NC+PDR+RIR)
   139 PSD/CDS+other parties (PPM+MPT+Alliance+IL+NC+PDR+RIR+Volt Portugal)
       5 PTP
       7 RIR
       2 RIR/PDR
       3 Volt Portugal
     90 Independents

1,576 Total

Info from this website: https://www.eyedata.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas2021.html


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 30, 2021, 12:05:24 PM
I have a bit of a question on Portugal's policies regarding covid. From what I have seen, Portugal seems like the country in the EU that has the highest vaccination rate, and in fact has already surpassed what initially people thought was the threshold for "herd immunity".

Yet on the other hand, I learned recently that Portugal still has an outdoors mask mandate? I am very surprised Portugal hasn't dropped it given we did it in May

Any news on when that, or other covid restrictions will start to be lifted over there? Cause such heavy restrictions while at the same time Portugal leads Europe in vaccinations and covid seems a bit weird to me; and makes me quite worried about restrictions ever being lifted. If Portugal's 80% or so vaccination rate isn't going to be enough; what is going to be enough then?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 30, 2021, 12:32:29 PM
I have a bit of a question on Portugal's policies regarding covid. From what I have seen, Portugal seems like the country in the EU that has the highest vaccination rate, and in fact has already surpassed what initially people thought was the threshold for "herd immunity".

Yet on the other hand, I learned recently that Portugal still has an outdoors mask mandate? I am very surprised Portugal hasn't dropped it given we did it in May

Any news on when that, or other covid restrictions will start to be lifted over there? Cause such heavy restrictions while at the same time Portugal leads Europe in vaccinations and covid seems a bit weird to me; and makes me quite worried about restrictions ever being lifted. If Portugal's 80% or so vaccination rate isn't going to be enough; what is going to be enough then?

The vaccination program is going amazingly well in Portugal, with massive turnout of young people and basically no big anti-vaxx or anti-certificate movements. But, at the same time vaccinations rates are one of the highest in the world, the infection rate isn't going down. In fact, Spain has a lower infection rate per 100,000 than Portugal, 263.94 vs 315.32. However, some measures have been lifted: restaurants can operate until 2am; there are no restrictions in shops; the number of people allowed in weddings and other events increased, and so on. In terms of outdoors masks, Parliament is set to decide if they are lifted or not on September 8th, I assume. But the government is basically saying that in the end it will be up for individuals to decide if the use or not masks outdoors.

The outdoors mask debate is a controversial one with some specialists wanting to lift it and others no, as they argue about the beginning of the school year in mid September and the 2021 local election campaign, not to mention possible new Covid variants.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 31, 2021, 09:57:51 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Seixal city (https://osetubalense.com/ultimas/2021/08/31/songagem-cdu-mantem-maioria-mas-pode-tremer-se-ps-eleger-o-quinto-vereador/) - CDU incumbent, 167,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

37.3% CDU (+0.8 ), 5 seats
32.0% PS (+0.6), 4/5
11.6% PSD (-0.2), 1
   7.3% BE (-0.2), 0/1
   2.5% IL (new), 0
   2.1% CHEGA (new), 0
   1.9% CDS/PDR/Alliance/MPT (-0.9), 0
   5.3% Others/Invalid (-0.5), 0

Poll conducted during the last week of August.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on August 31, 2021, 05:20:50 PM
Intercampus poll on the 2022 PSD leadership election:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/infograficos/detalhe/sonadagem-quem-vence-as-eleicoes-autarquicas?ref=Pesquisa_Destaques)

Future PSD leader after the 2021 local elections, Vote share %: (All voters)

17.3% Paulo Rangel
16.5% Pedro Passos Coelho
10.3% Luís Montenegro
  8.8% Rui Rio
  7.8% Miguel Poiares Maduro
  0.3% Others
38.9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 13 and 20 August 2021. Polled 612 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

* Rio's days as PSD leader are basically numbered...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 02, 2021, 05:55:39 AM
2021 local election campaign update:

- Santana Lopes is again in the news, but for different reasons. His pick for the local Municipal Assembly in Figueira da Foz, Paulo Mariano, was accused of robbery in 2017 (https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/744972/autarquicas-candidato-a-assembleia-municipal-por-santana-lopes-acusado-de-furto-qualificado-?seccao=Portugal_i). Allegedly, Mr Mariano is accused of stealing the furniture of a house his company purchase, as the furniture was the property of another company. Santana says he was unaware of the accusation and will "analyse" situation, but Paulo Mariano says the accusation is "BS". At the same time, Santana is still waiting on the Constitutional Court decision about his candidacy, but it's almost certain the Court will accept Santana's candidacy;

- In the PSD, things are tense. Polling is suggesting that results will be similar to 2017, meaning a national share around 30%, and the campaign isn't going well. The media is ignoring a bit Rio's tour across the country and he's been making some "gaffes". The latest was that the best moment for the PSD in order to defeat the PS will be... 2025 (https://zap.aeiou.pt/rio-psd-camaras-2025-428290), when, according to him, more than 70 PS mayors would be barred from office, thus creating an opportunity for the PSD. Pundits are stunned by this remark and are criticizing Rio;

- In Lisbon city, corruption is again in the news. The media is reporting that wiretaps, in the hands of the police, show that the Councillor Urban Development in Lisbon city, Ricardo Veludo, was caught promissing priority and help (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/vereador-de-lisboa-prometeu-dar-prioridade-a-grande-promotor-imobiliario) for a real estate developer to build in the city. Mr Veludo is the successor of Manuel Salgado, former Councillor who is also being investigated for corruption because of shady deals regarding urban development in the city; Mr Veludo is not running for reelection on September 26th;

- Courts are still deciding the fate of several candidacies across the country. In many cities and parishes across the country, the Constitutional Court is deciding the final fate of candidacies and, so far, some have been rejected: In Covilhã, Castelo Branco, 3 parish candidacies of CDS/PSD were rejected (https://noticiasdacovilha.pt/tribunal-constitucional-chumba-tres-listas-as-freguesias-da-covilha/), in Viana do Castelo, a PS parish list could also be rejected (https://www.publico.pt/2021/09/01/politica/noticia/violacao-lei-paridade-freguesias-viana-chega-constitucional-1975887) and in other areas the same is happening;

- The debates between candidates have already started but so far the debates have been quite boring. The debates on the big cities, however, started yesterday with the Almada debate on RTP. It was a very tense debate between PS and PCP with accusations of "hypocrisy" and "demagogy" (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-09-01-Demagogia-falta-de-capacidade-e-hipocrisia.-PS-e-PCP-em-confronto-aberto-sobre-Almada-7706d289) between both sides. SIC will broadcast this evening, 2 September, the Lisbon city debate and tomorrow, 3 September, the Porto city debate;

More updates when available.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 02, 2021, 08:29:45 PM
The Lisbon debate was held this evening, on SIC TV, and the main topics were housing and transport. In the beginning of the debate the "Russiagate" scandal was also brought up but it faded quickly in the discussion. Social media is highlighting two moments: the moment when the PAN candidate literally shut up the CHEGA candidate and the moment the Liberal (IL) candidate swear on live television.

The PAN vs CHEGA moment:

Quote
Manuela Gonzaga (PAN) - "I consider politics a worthy activity and it's a good sign we are all here in plural, discussing..."
Nuno Graciano (CHEGA) - "It's a great sign..."
Manuela Gonzaga (PAN) - "DO NOT INTERRUPT ME!! It's a good sign we are all here talking..."

The Liberal's (IL) "swear" moment:

Quote
Bruno Horta Soares (IL) - "...modernize this monster that is here beside us, so I would take my last minute to make an appeal to vote. We had a sh***y year and a half, we had the worst year of our lives...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 04, 2021, 10:08:32 AM
Paulo Rangel, PSD MEP and possible candidate for the 2022 PSD leadership race, talks openly, for the first time, about being gay:


Quote
Rangel speaks publicly about homosexuality: "It's no problem, it's something I've never hidden"

Paulo Rangel, PSD MEP since 2009 and possible contender for the 2022 PSD leadership race, gave an interview to SIC TV where he, for the first time, talked about his sexual orientation. He said that it was never a secret, even though he says his homosexuality is being used by some to attack him. Mr Rangel said he kept his sexuality off the public spotlight to protect his family, mainly his mother, who died in 2019, and the fear she had of him being exposed. Asked about his religion, Mr Rangel is practicing Catholic, he said that he never had any issue about being gay as "Jesus would never discriminate". he said. About the PSD leadership, he says it's still too early to talk about it and that he's focused on helping PSD candidates across the country. Mr Rangel was already a PSD leadership candidate in 2010, but was defeated by Pedro Passos Coelho in a 61% to 34% margin. A recent poll shows him leading the race to become the next PSD leader.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: MaxQue on September 05, 2021, 02:14:49 PM
It seems the old election archive of the CNE finally stopped working (or it may have months ago). Wierd that their website still links to it.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 05, 2021, 05:07:33 PM
It seems the old election archive of the CNE finally stopped working (or it may have months ago). Wierd that their website still links to it.

They stopped updating the results page years ago. I believe the last election they uploaded was the 2011 general elections, and the system is completely obsolete. But, of course, CNE has literally no money or staff, seriously. So, not updating the results website is just a consequence of lack of staff and investment. For the local elections, they are receiving tons of complaints from across the country, but they cannot handle them all and make rulings in appropriate time because of lack of staff. For example, since last year, there's a "war" between Parliament and the Commission about their headquarters (https://expresso.pt/politica/2020-11-07-Parlamento-e-Comissao-Nacional-de-Eleicoes-abrem-guerra-por-causa-de-instalacoes):

Quote
CNE rented a classroom to accompany the presidential election. A complete team does not fit in the new premises and had to be divided in the last three electoral acts.

The vote for the Azores Regional Legislative Assembly was followed by the 12 members of the National Election Commission (CNE) plenary from a classroom provided by the Higher Institute of Economics and Management (ISEG). They were precisely 400 meters away from the CNE headquarters, where the legal office and contact center registered the more than 300 requests for information and complaints received during that scrutiny for the Commission's analysis. The physical distance, in this case, is not due to the pandemic. There is a war between the CNE and Parliament, which has lasted for over a year, over the new facilities.

“Disregard”, “intransigence”, “intolerable” are some of the expressions used by CNE members to classify the process that led to the transfer of address. The move took place on the same street (on Avenida D. Carlos I, in Lisbon, right next to the Assembly of the Republic), to two buildings above the headquarters where, since 1992, it operated. But even that doesn't flatten the criticisms of the CNE members, who slurred their grievances over a year and a half of minutes and even in the last report and accounts.
(...)

So, this is the situation. You can find full election results, since 1999, in this website: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 05, 2021, 05:42:09 PM
2021 local election campaign update. Main party leaders in the campaign trail:

PS leader, António Costa, in Guarda city:


PSD leader, Rui Rio, in Barcelos city, Braga district:


PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, in the final rally of the Avante festival in Seixal city, Setúbal district:


CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, in Ponte de Lima city, Viana do Castelo district:


BE leader, Catarina Martins, in Santarém city:


CHEGA leader, André Ventura, in a walkabout in Lisbon city with their candidate Nuno Graciano:


PAN march in Lisbon city, with the party's candidate for Lisbon city Manuela Gonzaga, for the defense of the rights of all animals:



The campaign is being dominated by the Paulo Rangel interview, yesterday on Saturday, and the embarrassment is provoking to Rui Rio. Mr Rio isn't commentating because he says he's focused on the election campaign and to win cities across the country, Mr Rangel says the same, but the tension in the PSD is clear.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 06, 2021, 06:02:50 AM
PM Costa and President Marcelo were photograph with one of the Iraqi's alledge terrorists while he was being investigated in 2018, the media reports:


Quote
Costa and Sampaio were with the Iraqi when he was already being investigated for terrorism

The media is reporting a rather embarrassing moment for PM Costa and also President Marcelo. It seems that both were photograph with one the of the two Iraqis that were arrested last week due to suspected links to ISIS. The two men arrived in Portugal in 2017 and were helped by associations that help refugees from the Middle East find work and settle in Portugal. Costa, Marcelo and former President Jorge Sampaio also, talked and were photographed with one of the men in 2018, while he was working in a restaurant, and at the same he was already being investigated by the police due to possible links with ISIS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 07, 2021, 05:40:11 AM
Costa's interview on TVI: PM presses he will only decide in 2023 about running again, but promises not to interfere in the selection of his successor.


Quote
António Costa promises not to interfere in the choice of his successor nor to create a desert around him

In an interview to TVI, PM António Costa was asked, again, about his position on the 2023 election. Costa, once again, said he will only make a decision in 2023 and that he first has to talk with his wife. At the same time, he says he will not interfere in the election of his successor and will do everything to avoid a "desert" in the PS after him. During the interview, Costa also announced some measures for the budget like the creation of one new IRS tax bracket. Asked about the report that said the President Marcelo is convinced that Costa will not run in 2023, Costa refused to comment because, he said, he's not a pundit or comment anonymous sources.

Pundits, after the interview, clearly said that Costa is creating a tabu about his position in 2023, and that this could hurt the authority of the Prime Minister. In terms of ratings, the PM's interview had really low ratings (https://www.zapping-tv.com/entrevista-a-antonio-costa-na-tvi-faz-disparar-sic/): just 830,000 viewers*. SIC TV, which at the same time was showing a report of the road nº 2 of Portugal, the Portuguese equivalent of U.S. Route 66, had 1.3 million viewers.

* One of the main reasons for the low numbers may also be the fact the interview was conducted by Miguel Sousa Tavares, a really bad journalist, to say the least.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 07, 2021, 10:32:42 AM
PS MP under fire for a tweet about Paulo Rangel's (PSD) coming out. The MP denies he linked the "bondage house" of Brussels to Mr Rangel:


Quote
José Magalhães claims that reference to the “bondage house” in Brussels was not addressed to Paulo Rangel

PS MP José Magalhães is currently under fire because of a series of tweets he published about Paulo Rangel's interview, last Saturday, where the PSD MP came out as gay. In his first tweet, Mr Magalhães posted asking what would happen if Mr Rangel revealed he liked "a certain house in Brussels where bondage and S&M are practiced". This tweet was received by fury on social media and reached also the media as a whole. From left to right, many condemned the words of Mr Magalhães. He later posted another tweet saying that Mr Rangel wasn't the real addressee and it was just a hypothetical one.

Nonetheless, this isn't the first time Mr Magalhães is involved in controversies. Recently, he posted a series of tweets threatening that some PSD members needed some "therapeutic bludgeons" and he was also the "father" of the controversial Cibercrime bill, that was unanimously rejected by the Constitutional Court. (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/tribunal-declara-inconstitucionalidade-de-acesso-a-e-mails-sem-ordem-de-juiz-14074177.html) The most controversial article was the one where the police would have direct access to a person's emails without a judge warrant. This controversial article was proposed by the Government, but Mr Magalhães, however, didn't agree with the government but let the bill go ahead and asked President Marcelo to send the bill to the Courts.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 07, 2021, 05:52:18 PM
DA office says that all CHEGA acts since September 2020 are illegal due to irregularities and has sent the case to the Constitutional Court:


Quote
Constitutional Court: Changes to Chega's statutes made at the last congress are illegal, says DA

The DA office has asked the Constitutional Court to invalidate all of CHEGA acts since September 2020. The DA office says that the party congress of September last year is full of irregularities, starting with the calling of the congress itself to the changes in the party system which, according to the DA, weren't clear either thus creating several illegalities. The Court now has to validate or not the DA claims. If the Court accepts the claims from the DA, CHEGA has to call a new congress and change everything all over again. The party says that local election candidates will not be affected by a ruling.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 07, 2021, 06:34:45 PM
Lisbon debate on TVI between Medina and Moedas:  (https://observador.pt/liveblogs/debate-medina-moedas-o-duelo-a-dois-por-lisboa/)


Quote
The hot debate between the "modern chameleon" and the "marketing director"

It was a very tense debate between Fernando Medina (PS) and Carlos Moedas (PSD/CDS) on TVI. Both candidates for Lisbon mayor traded several attacks against each other: Medina accused Moedas of being "a chameleon" and "low", while Moedas accused Medina of being complicit with the corruption investigations in Lisbon city and called Medina a "markting director". Medina accused Moedas of using the investigations in Lisbon city as "political leverage" when it's a matter for the Courts, in which Moedas said that people are tired of the corruption investigations in Lisbon city hall and want higher ethical standards. This went on with Moedas listing a number of Medina's close associates investigated or accused of corruption, while Medina accused Moedas of acting like the front page of Correio da Manhã tabloid. Regarding taxes, Moedas wants to reduce taxes while Medina says that there's no space to reduce local taxes, adding that Lisbon has the lowest taxes in the Lisbon metro area.

On housing, Moedas accused Medina of a failed program on housing and proposed housing tax exemptions for young people, in which Medina responded by saying that Moedas is "promising everything to everyone like a Christmas basket". Both traded attacks about Climate Change, after Medina accused Moedas of being a denier and not proposing nothing, and Moedas responded that while EU Commissionaire he developed plans of several billion euros to fight climate change. During Moedas response, Medina called him a "chameleon" and "you have no courage". Then, Moedas said that Lisbon has one of the worst transport networks in Europe while Medina rejects the claims and talked about transport passes for elderly people.

Bike paths were also a topic, with Moedas accusing Medina of creating dangerous bike paths that, according to him, killed 26 people just in 2019. Medina furiously demanded the data and accused Moedas of being in the pocket of the "car lobby".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 08, 2021, 05:18:13 AM
Aximage poll for Amadora city (https://www.dn.pt/politica/sondagem-da-clara-clara-vantagem-ao-ps-na-amadora-suzana-garcia-nao-vai-alem-de-16-14098281.html) - PS incumbent, 172,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

50% PS (+2)
22% PSD/CDS/Alliance/MPT/PDR (+4)
  7% CDU (-5)
  2% CHEGA (new)
  2% PAN (-1)
  2% BE (-5)
15% Others/Invalid (+3)

Poll conducted between 26 and 31 August 2021. Polled 452 voters in Amadora city. MoE of 4.61%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 08, 2021, 05:56:51 AM
Another one from Amadora:

ICS/ISCTE poll for Amadora city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-09-08-Sondagem-da-vitoria-ao-PS-na-Amadora-quando-33-dos-inquiridos-ainda-estao-indecisos-96bebdf7) - PS incumbent, 172,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

41% PS (-7)
30% PSD/CDS/Alliance/MPT/PDR (+12)
  8% CDU (-4)
  5% BE (-2)
  3% CHEGA (new)
  2% IL (new)
  2% PAN (-1)
  9% Others/Invalid (-3)

Poll conducted between 23 and 25 August 2021. Polled 600 voters in Amadora city. MoE of 3.94%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 08, 2021, 10:11:08 AM
Eurosondagem poll for Viseu city (https://jornaldocentro.pt/noticias/especiais/sondagem-psd-com-mais-de-20-por-cento-do-que-o-resultado-projetado-para-o-ps) - PSD incumbent, 100,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

52.0% PSD (+0.3), 6 seats (nc)
25.5% PS (-1.0), 3 (nc)
  4.2% IL (new), 0 (new)
  3.6% CHEGA (new), 0 (new)
  3.3% CDS (-1.7), 0 (nc)
  2.7% BE (-2.1), 0 (nc)
  2.5% CDU (-1.4), 0 (nc)
  1.7% PAN (-0.5), 0 (nc)
  4.5% Invalid (-1.4)

Poll conducted between 4 and 6 September 2021. Polled 1,018 voters in Viseu city. MoE of 3.05%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 08, 2021, 03:04:04 PM
And another one, this time for Lisbon:

Pitagórica poll for Lisbon city (https://tvi24.iol.pt/videos/sondagem-tvi-medina-vence-em-lisboa-com-diferenca-de-7-2/6139066b0cf279ce41d8eb1d) - PS incumbent, 545,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

39.8% PS/Livre (-2.2)
32.6% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (+0.8 )
   8.5% CDU (-1.1)
   6.8% BE (-0.3)
   3.8% PAN (+0.8 )
   3.0% IL (new)
   2.8% CHEGA (new)
  0.2% PDR (-0.1)
   2.5% Others/Invalid (-4.0)

Poll conducted between 30 August and 4 September 2021. Polled 600 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 4.08%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 08, 2021, 05:31:09 PM
Campaign update:

- In Vila Real de Santo António, a PS list candidate tossed a homophobic slur against the PSD candidate (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-08-Candidato-nas-listas-do-PS-a-Vila-Real-de-St.-Antonio-lanca-insulto-homofobico-ao-cabeca-de-lista-do-PSD-be92d9b3) in that municipality. Paulo Karussa, a candidate in the PS lists, posted on Facebook "This queer never gave me anything, nor did I ask him. This guy doesn't even deserve the bread he eats." Mr Karussa deleted the post and apologized for his tone and language, adding he has a bad history with Luís Gomes, the PSD candidate, because of his "persuctions". Mr Gomes reacted by saying this is just another of the offenses Mr Karussa has thrown against him. The PS mayoral candidate for Vila Real de Santo António, Álvaro Araújo, personally apologized to Luís Gomes;

- In Lisbon city, BE is willing to repeat the coalition agreement with the PS that was signed in 2017 (https://observador.pt/2021/09/08/be-com-toda-a-disponibilidade-para-reeditar-acordo-pos-eleitoral-em-lisboa/). But, BE leader Catarina Martins says that will isn't the same in the PS as they always want a majority in order to not make changes, adding that the Socialists have a tendency of rejecting deals with the left;

- Also in Lisbon city, the Liberal candidate, Bruno Horta Soares, is involved in a controversy. Mr Soares posted on social media a tweet where he seemed to highlight the Estado Novo regime (https://twitter.com/brunohsoares/status/1434552126374649856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1434552126374649856%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fvisao.sapo.pt%2Fopiniao%2Fpoliticamente-correto%2F2021-09-06-a-liberdade-e-as-oportunidades-para-o-candidato-a-lisboa-da-il-opiniao-de-pedro-marques-lopes%2F) by talking about his grandparents that left the countryside to the city to find better opportunities and that today we have fewer liberties and less stories like these. This created quite a reaction on social media and a "war" between columnists and the candidate in the media (https://visao.sapo.pt/opiniao/2021-09-08-a-liberdade-de-querer-a-resposta-de-bruno-horta-soares-a-pedro-marques-lopes/);

- The final lists are almost decided, with the Courts issuing their final rulings. As of now, there are 12,370 candidacies for the 26 September election for the 3 local branches (https://www.publico.pt/2021/09/08/politica/noticia/cerca-12370-listas-candidatas-autarquicas-26-setembro-1976804): Municipal Chamber, Municipal Assembly and Parish Assembly. The number is already higher than the 12,025 candidacies of 2017;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2021, 05:11:08 AM
ICS/ISCTE poll for Figueira da Foz city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-09-09-Sondagem-da-vitoria-a-Santana-na-Figueira-da-Foz-1997f164) - PS incumbent, 59,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

47% Pedro Santana Lopes (new)
35% PS (-15)
  8% PSD (-20)
  3% CDU (-4)
  1% CHEGA (new)
  6% Others/Invalid (-9)

Poll conducted between 26 and 30 August 2021. Polled 604 voters in Figueira da Foz city. MoE of 4.00%.

*Yep... It seems that Santana is on the verge of winning his first election in 20 years, after tons of defeats.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2021, 01:43:05 PM
Mayors across the country file a Court complaint against the Electoral Commission (CNE) because of the Commission's ban in office holders publicising their work as mayors:


Quote
Complaint by mayors against CNE will have Marcelo, Ferro and Costa as witnesses

During this election cycle, the Electoral Commission has been fining and banning mayors across of the country for publicising their work as officeholders in the last four years. Mayors running for reelection are furious with the Commission and they are now going to file a Court complaint in order to stop the CNE ruling. 10 mayors, that include Oeiras mayor Isaltino Morais (Ind) and Cascais mayor Carlos Carreiras (PSD/CDS), are challenging the Electoral Commission. They will also ask as witnesses President Marcelo, PM Costa and Speaker Ferro Rodrigues. The CNE view is that any publicity of the work an officeholder did is unfair advantage, but mayors argue that, in a democracy, candidates have to show their "virtues", meaning work, in order to have a case to the electorate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2021, 05:21:35 PM
ICS/ISCTE poll for Coimbra city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-09-09-Sondagem-luta-renhida-em-Coimbra-com-empate-tecnico-entre-PS-e-PSD-61ad4df0) - PS incumbent, 141,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

33% PS (-2)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM/Volt/RIR/Alliance/NC (+5)*
12% CpC (+5)
   7% CDU (-1)
   3% IL (new)
   3% CHEGA (new)
11% Others/Invalid (+4)

Poll conducted between 31 August and 2 September 2021. Polled 606 voters in Coimbra city. MoE of 4.00%.

* Compared with the 27% of the Coalition in 2017. The current PSD/CDS candidate got 16% as an independent in 2017.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2021, 05:42:43 PM
Constitutional Court rejects PSD appeal and Santana Lopes is allowed to run in Figueira da Foz. (https://www.dn.pt/politica/figueira-da-foz-tc-da-razao-a-santana-lopes-mas-chega-fica-sem-candidato-14105897.html) CHEGA, on the contrary, is removed from the ballot:

The Constitutional Court has ruled in favour of Pedro Santana Lopes and he will be allowed to be on the ballot for the 26 September vote. The Court, thus, rejected the PSD appeal that said that Mr Santana Lopes candidacy papers had several errors and should be invalidated. The Court, however, rejected Santana's movement candidacies in two parishes of Figueira. Who will be definitely out of the ballot is CHEGA. The Court has also ruled that CHEGA cannot be on the ballot because of several errors in the candidacy, thus giving reason to the local court that also rejected the candidacy.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Josecardoso17 on September 09, 2021, 09:12:31 PM
ICS/ISCTE poll for Figueira da Foz city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-09-09-Sondagem-da-vitoria-a-Santana-na-Figueira-da-Foz-1997f164) - PS incumbent, 59,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

47% Pedro Santana Lopes (new)
35% PS (-15)
  8% PSD (-20)
  3% CDU (-4)
  1% CHEGA (new)
  6% Others/Invalid (-9)

Poll conducted between 26 and 30 August 2021. Polled 604 voters in Figueira da Foz city. MoE of 4.00%.

*Yep... It seems that Santana is on the verge of winning his first election in 20 years, after tons of defeats.


this is even more interesting because in the polls that were made the people of Figueira da Foz seem to like the job of the current president .
A case of pure nostalgia....


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2021, 04:35:23 AM
this is even more interesting because in the polls that were made the people of Figueira da Foz seem to like the job of the current president .
A case of pure nostalgia....

He always had a fan base in Figueira, but that data is still curious and although he's the favourite, the poll shows 30% of undecided, quite high, meaning that turnout will be crucial in the end.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2021, 04:48:52 AM
Very sad news this morning. Former President Jorge Sampaio passed away this morning:


Quote
Jorge Sampaio, the "prisoner of anxiety for a better future" died

Former President of the Republic Jorge Sampaio (1996-2006) died this morning at the age of 81. Mr Sampaio was ill for some time now, heart issues, and was in hospital since late August. In his youth, he was part of the opposition against the Estado Novo regime and after the 25 April revolution, he was part of MES, a Christian Socialist Party, before going to the PS in 1978. He was elected leader of the PS in 1988 and was elected mayor of Lisbon, in a PS-CDU coalition, in 1989 and stayed as mayor until 1995. He was defeated by Cavaco Silva in the 1991 general election, and shortly after, he lost the PS leadership to António Guterres. He ran for President of the Republic in 1996 and was elected President by defeating Cavaco Silva by a 54-46% margin. He was a very popular President and the only one, so far, to use the "atomic bomb", the dissolution of Parliament without the consent of the Prime Minister in 2004. In 2006, he was succeeded by Cavaco Silva in the Presidency of the Republic. Since 2014, Mr Sampaio was the head of an association that worked to integrate and educate refugees that arrived in Portugal from the Middle East.

RIP, Mr President.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: VPH on September 10, 2021, 08:35:46 AM
ICS/ISCTE poll for Coimbra city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-09-09-Sondagem-luta-renhida-em-Coimbra-com-empate-tecnico-entre-PS-e-PSD-61ad4df0) - PS incumbent, 141,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM/Volt/RIR/Alliance/NC (+5)*
Boy, that's quite the large alliance of parties. How did they manage to get RIR and Volt to come into a center-right ticket? Those parties definitely seem to lean left. Anyway, their support base is probably pretty tiny. Although I could see Volt doing slightly better with students at the Universidade.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2021, 08:53:58 AM
ICS/ISCTE poll for Coimbra city (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-09-09-Sondagem-luta-renhida-em-Coimbra-com-empate-tecnico-entre-PS-e-PSD-61ad4df0) - PS incumbent, 141,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM/Volt/RIR/Alliance/NC (+5)*
Boy, that's quite the large alliance of parties. How did they manage to get RIR and Volt to come into a center-right ticket? Those parties definitely seem to lean left. Anyway, their support base is probably pretty tiny. Although I could see Volt doing slightly better with students at the Universidade.

I believe it's because of the candidate itself. José Manuel Silva seems to be a candidate with broad appeal, from center-left to center-right, thus having the support of parties like Volt. Tino de Rans RIR party has no ideology, and in these elections they have coalitions with both PS and PSD is some places. Volt is new in the political scene and they only have 3 solo candidacies: in Lisbon, Porto and Tomar. Don't know if they appeal to University students, mainly because many students at Coimbra University don't vote in Coimbra, but the trend and analysis from Coimbra seems bad for the PS, and that poll also gives the current mayor, Manuel Machado (PS), the worst approval so far in a ICS/ISCTE poll, a 52-43% approval.

*Odivelas, Lisbon, 148,000 inhabitants, also has a mega center-right coalition: PSD/CDS/Alliance/MPT/PDR/PPM/RIR.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2021, 10:48:16 AM
2021 local election campaign update:

Because of the death of former President Jorge Sampaio, campaign events are being cancelled across the country. PS and PSD have already suspended all their campaign rallies and events during the weekend, and TV networks are cancelling debates between candidates: RTP has cancelled the Coimbra debate that was schedule for this Friday evening.

The government has also decreed 3 days of national mourning. The funeral of President Jorge Sampaio is to be held on Sunday, 12 September.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 10, 2021, 04:20:47 PM
I have not been following this thread recently as much as I used to, but I just want to pop in to ask whether the local elections seem to be headed in a more favourable direction for the PS or for the PSD on the whole, and what this means for Costa's and Rui Rio's future. Also lol at Santana Lopes looking poised to return to the mayoralty of Figueira after so long and finally win an election... what a man.

And obviously, my condolences for Jorge Sampaio. May he rest in peace.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 10, 2021, 05:43:00 PM
I have not been following this thread recently as much as I used to, but I just want to pop in to ask whether the local elections seem to be headed in a more favourable direction for the PS or for the PSD on the whole, and what this means for Costa's and Rui Rio's future. Also lol at Santana Lopes looking poised to return to the mayoralty of Figueira after so long and finally win an election... what a man.

And obviously, my condolences for Jorge Sampaio. May he rest in peace.

The local elections seem poised to be very similar with the 2017 results, meaning a PS victory. The PSD can win some places, like Coimbra or Funchal, but the rest seems very unlikely. The PSD is already rebelling against Rio with predictions of another electoral disaster and challengers are gearing up to run for the leadership. MEP Paulo Rangel's recent interview, where he came out as gay, is seen as a sign he will challenge Rio for the leadership after the local elections. Mr Rangel is also crisscrossing the country, like Rio, to support PSD candidates and to feel the mood of the party's base. Rio seems to be furious at Rangel because he is from Rio's wing of the party, and reports say that Rio has basically decided he will not go down without a fight, but if predictions about the local elections are right and Rio does run, I'm not seeing the PSD members giving Rio another chance. If the results, however, of the local elections are worse than 2017, Rio has already said it would be a "push" to resign and not contest the leadership.

For the PS, a result similar to 2017 would be another big victory, however, the mood towards Costa's government has been worsening in the last few months: pandemic fatigue, scandals/controversies hitting several ministers in the cabinet, plus some other PS members, and lack of vision are generating accusations of complacency and arrogance by pundits and the media. At the same time, the future of Costa is another big "taboo". Costa hasn't ruled out not running in 2023 and this is generating a huge discussion about possible successors. The most likely successor is Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister, but Costa doesn't like him and he's literally throwing names of possible successors to see if the media picks them up. Currently, Costa and the PS are basically merged, Costa is the PS and the PS is Costa, so a possible exit from the leadership would be a massive change in the political scene. It's quite possible that in 2023, there will be new PS and PSD leaders contesting the election, but, as of now, it's all speculation.

Regarding Santana, well, a cat has 7 lives, Santana has 1,056,271 lives. 8) 8) It's quite remarkable that, in just 3 years, after losing the PSD leadership, leaving the PSD, forming his own party, having a car crash result in 2019, leaving the party he himself created, he seems poised to win the city of Figueira as an Independent. It's quite a journey. But, it's only over when it's over. Let's see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 11, 2021, 10:48:15 AM
IPOM poll for Vila Nova de Gaia city (http://www.ogaiense.pt/noticias/noticiario/ps-com-maioria-absolutissima) - PS incumbent, 304,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

62.1% PS (+0.4)
16.0% PSD/CDS/PPM (-4.3)
  4.6% BE (-0.6)
  4.6% CDU (+0.1)
  3.1% CHEGA (new)
  1.5% PAN (-1.1)
  1.5% Livre (new)
  1.2% IL (new)
  5.4% Others/Invalid (-0.4)

Poll conducted between 1 and 4 September 2021. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 12, 2021, 05:36:25 PM
Pitagórica poll for Porto city (https://tvi24.iol.pt/videos/politica/autarquicas-sondagem-tvi-da-vitoria-a-rui-moreira-no-porto/613e4f240cf279ce41d97dab) - Independent incumbent, 232,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election results)

52.8% Rui Moreira (+8.3)
15.7% PS (-12.9)
14.0% PSD (+3.6)
  5.8% CDU (-0.1)
  3.5% BE (-1.8 )
  2.2% PAN (+0.3)
  1.8% CHEGA (new)
  0.2% PPM (new)
  4.0% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 2 and 5 September 2021. Polled 601 voters in Porto city. MoE of 4.08%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 12, 2021, 06:29:17 PM
Speaker Ferro Rodrigues was harassed and insulted by anti-vaxx protesters, yesterday, in a restaurant in Lisbon:


Quote
Videos - New images show deniers hitting the car followed by Ferro Rodrigues.

Speaker Ferro Rodrigues was harassed and insulted by anti-vaxx and deniers protesters in Lisbon, on Saturday afternoon. The protest was rather small, but noisy and violent and they targeted Speaker Rodrigues while he was having lunch with his wife in a restaurant in Lisbon. He was insulted and while he was reaching to his car, some protesters hit his official car. The protesters are supporters of Judge Rui Fonseca e Castro, a denial and anti-vaxx judge who has insulted politicians, judges and police officers, and that has an ongoing process to be removed from judgeship. After harassing Speaker Rodrigues, the group of protesters went to protest in front of the PSD national headquarters, with chants like "Don't poison our children".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 13, 2021, 02:36:00 PM
UCP–CESOP poll for Almada city (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/autarquicas-2021/autarquicas-sondagem-aponta-para-ps-como-vencedor-em-almada-mas-sem-maioria-absoluta_n1348443) - PS incumbent*, 177,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

33% PS (+2)
29% CDU (-2)
13% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-4)
  9% BE (-1)
  5% CHEGA (new)
  5% PAN (+1)
  2% IL (new)
  4% Others/Invalid (-4)

Poll conducted between 9 and 11 September 2021. Polled 623 voters in Almada city. MoE of 3.90%.

* PS incumbent in a government coalition with PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 13, 2021, 06:27:48 PM
2021 local election campaign:

After midnight tonight, and with the end of the national mourning due to the death of President Jorge Sampaio, the official campaign period for the 26 September local elections has started, from today, 14 September, to Friday, 24 September. Party leaders will continue to crisscross the country, while PM António Costa will only campaign during the next weekend and possibly in the last few days of the campaign, Thursday or Friday next week.

A flood of polls are also expected during the next 10 days.

In play in these elections are who will win the main cities, plus the fate of several party leaders: Rio's fate as PSD leader; Costa's fate for the 2nd half of his second term, and possible decisions regarding 2023; Jerónimo de Sousa's fate as PCP leader and if he can stop the rapid decline of the Communists; Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos fate as CDS leader and how will the new parties perform, CHEGA and the Liberals (IL). BE is not in play as they don't have any local government strength.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 14, 2021, 11:25:40 AM
2021 local election campaign update:

- In Lisbon city, Carlos Moedas (PSD) received the support of Isabel Ayuso (https://observador.pt/2021/09/14/isabel-ayuso-presidente-de-madrid-manifesta-apoio-a-moedas-ha-que-libertar-lisboa-das-politicas-socialistas-fracassadas/), President of the Community of Madrid. Ms Ayuso said in a video message, that Moedas "was an excellent commissioner in the EU" and that Lisbon "needs to be freed from the failed socialist policies". Fernando Medina (PS) said that the support is "natural", but that Ms Ayuso doesn't vote in Lisbon. Moedas also received the "endorsement" of Jean-Claude Juncker and Mario Monti;

- In Seixal city, the PSD has been accused of racism because of a poster mocking Mao Tsé-Tung (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-09-14-Comissao-contra-a-discriminacao-racial-instaura-processo-ao-PSD-do-Seixal-por-cartaz-com-lider-chines-Mao-Tse-Tung-2e159fd3) and the Chinese Communist Party. The Commission Against Racial Discrimination filed a complaint against the PSD, because they say the posters phrase "Eating rice for 45 years" is discriminatory to the Chinese people and that the Chinese suffered a lot because of wars and had to rely on rice. The PSD says the accusation is "unbelievable" and makes no sense, adding that the Communists in Seixal don't understand freedom of speech;

- PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa is accusing the PS of "promissing everything for everyone" (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-13-Jeronimo-PS-promete-mundos-e-fundos-na-habitacao-mas-esta-longe-das-respostas-precisas-fdf8f3e0) without solving any of the current problem, mainly housing. The PS and PCP are in a "silent battle" in these elections as neither side want another PCP colapse as it could damage PS-PCP relationship for the next 2 years;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 14, 2021, 05:12:48 PM
UCP–CESOP poll for Amadora city (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/autarquicas-sondagem-preve-maioria-absoluta-para-o-ps-na-amadora_n1348653) - PS incumbent, 172,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

43% PS (-5)
22% PSD/CDS/Alliance/MPT/PDR (+4)
11% CDU (-1)
  5% BE (-2)
  4% IL (new)
  3% CHEGA (new)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% PPM/RIR (new)
  7% Others/Invalid (-5)

Poll conducted between 12 and 13 September 2021. Polled 685 voters in Amadora city. MoE of 3.70%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 14, 2021, 07:13:29 PM
2021 local elections: The weird campaign of Jessica the Dog in Viana do Castelo.


Quote
Jessica, the “ dog candidate” for the Viana Chamber wants 15 more floors in the Coutinho building

Viana do Castelo, like any other city across the country, is full of campaign posters of all parties, but one stands out: posters about a dog running for mayor of the city. The dog is obviously not on the ballot, but local comedian, Hugo Soares, decided to make this "mock candidacy" to raise awareness about how bad the state of politics is, and that people would rather read the political platform of a dog rather than one from a politician. Soares is giving flyers and puttings posters across the city and says that people laugh but at the same time discuss the crazy policies his dog proposes, like constructing 15 more stories in a controversial tower in the city that is going to be demolished, holding the local August city party every two months or banning cars because all the streets will be covered with water with everybody receiving a boat made in the local shipyard.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 15, 2021, 09:01:50 AM
Controversy as the Constitutional Court labels the possible transfer of the Court from Lisbon to Coimbra as "discrediting". Parliament to vote Friday on the matter:


Quote
“Serious discredit”. Counselor judges give a negative opinion on the transfer of TC to Coimbra

Parliament is set to discuss and vote, this Thursday and Friday, a PSD bill that would transfer the Constitutional Court (TC) from Lisbon to Coimbra. This is a flag policy for PSD leader Rui Rio and has been supported, in the past, by many including current PM António Costa. But, the Court's judges are furious, or at least a majority of them. In a ruling about the possible change, the judges reject the idea of changing cities and say that any change would in fact "contribute more to discredit the Court". They refuse the arguments of the PSD, that says the German Court is not in Berlin f.e., saying it would "diminish the authority of the Court" as it was a decision taken by politicians. The Court also rejects the argument that Coimbra is a University city where there is a strong tradition of law teaching, saying that this isn't proven. However, this ruling wasn't unanimous and at least 3 judges voted against, with one of them, that teaches law in Coimbra, saying the wording in the ruling is "insulting".

Party leaders have also reacted to the ruling. PSD leader Rui Rio trashed the ruling saying the Court only left out saying it doesn't wasn't to go to the countryside, and that it's sad that the country looks at itself like this. However, he's still optimistic that the bill will pass. The PS also reacted by saying they will probably abstain in the vote, adding they are not against the proposal but criticized the PSD for not saying how much this would cost.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 15, 2021, 12:11:03 PM
2021 local election numbers:

The Interior ministry announced, yesterday, the final number of registered voters (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-14-Autarquicas-inscritos-nos-cadernos-eleitorais-9.323.688-cidadaos-65b9eeb8): 9,323,688. Of these, 29,814 are foreign registered voters: 13,924 from EU countries and 15,890 from countries outside the EU. In terms of precincts, like in the January elections, there will be an increased and there will be a total of 13,821 precincts across the country, with an average of 675 voters in each one.

On 26 September, polls will close at 8pm (https://rr.sapo.pt/noticia/politica/2021/09/15/resultados-e-sondagens-no-dia-das-autarquicas-so-depois-fecho-das-urnas-nos-acores/253206/), one hour later than previous elections because of the pandemic, but exit polls and results can only be presented at 9pm, when polls in the Azores close. So, it will be a late election.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 16, 2021, 09:46:40 AM
2021 local election campaign update:

- PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, has been receiving death threats on social media (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-09-16-Lider-do-PAN-ameacada-de-morte-c1e2639c), and also insults. The PAN leader has already sent a complaint to the DA office. She added that she had received insults in the past but that her complaints were dismissed by the DA office;

- PM Costa is hitting the campaign trail and he's promissing a lot of money and new infrastructures in every city he's campaigning. Last night, the PM was in Coimbra city, where PS and PSD are neck and neck, and promissed a new maternity hospital in 3 weeks (https://observador.pt/2021/09/16/prazo-na-maternidade-e-vamos-ganhar-as-eleicoes-costa-foi-dar-uma-ajuda-ao-manuel-em-coimbra/) and he forecast that the PS would win the city again;

- The PSD is trashing and mocking the PM's promisses with PSD leader Rui Rio accusing Costa of "shamelessness" (https://observador.pt/2021/09/16/macacos-me-mordam-rio-acusa-costa-de-desplante-e-descaramento-com-promessa-de-maternidade-para-coimbra/) for promissing now things he hasn't delivered in the past. The PSD has also been trashing Costa in the EU Parliament after the PSD MEP Paulo Rangel said, in a speech in Strasbourg, that Costa is using the Recovery Plan to gain votes in the local elections;

- CHEGA, on the other hand, is attacking the PSD and warning the Social Democrats that they will be forced to make coalitions with CHEGA after the local elections. Ventura also had a mix of good and bad news yesterday: A second instance Court ruled that Ventura in fact insulted a family (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/tribunal-confirma-condenacao-de-andre-ventura-por-ter-chamado-bandidos-a-familia-do-bairro-jamaica-784411), accusing them of being thugs, and that he has to apologize or face a daily penalty of 500 euros. At the same time, the DA office dismissed the accusation that CHEGA forged several signatures (https://www.dn.pt/politica/ministerio-publico-arquiva-processo-da-falsificacao-de-assinaturas-do-chega-14125782.html) in order to be legalized on the grounds that there aren't enough evidences of that;

- The debates are finally over in the 3 main networks (RTP, SIC, TVI). Yesterday, it was the last debate, the Lisbon debate, with all 12 candidates running for the election.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 16, 2021, 11:01:09 AM
It seems that in Figueira da Foz, RTP has cancelled the publication of a poll because of "errors" in the sample. Of course, Santana Lopes campaign is already trashing RTP and the polling company UCP-CESOP and demands an explanation.

I don't recall actually a major polling company cancelling a poll because of sample "errors". This seems to be a first. Just to show how crazy the campaign in Figueira is right now.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 17, 2021, 08:47:40 AM
Controversy as the Constitutional Court labels the possible transfer of the Court from Lisbon to Coimbra as "discrediting". Parliament to vote Friday on the matter:

Parliament approves the PSD proposal with just 93 votes in favour. (https://observador.pt/2021/09/17/parlamento-aprova-mudanca-de-tribunal-constitucional-e-supremo-tribunal-administrativo-para-coimbra/) PSD, CDS, IL and 8 PS MPs votes in favour. The rest of PS MPs abstained as did MPs from BE, CDU and Independent MPs. Only CHEGA and PAN voted against. The bill now goes down to a parliamentary committee in order to approve the final draft, but the PS has already said that they have reservations about moving the Court to Coimbra, because of costs and benefits, and the leftwing parties, BE and CDU, accuse the PSD of an electoral stunt.

Parliament also approved, with the votes of the leftwing and the PSD abstention, the government's proposal to reduce fuel producers profit margins in the price of fuel. (https://observador.pt/2021/09/17/esquerda-quer-mais-mas-nao-impede-medida-dissuasora-do-governo-para-intervir-nos-combustiveis/) This policy isn't consensual with the rightwing accusing the government of just presenting a "makeup measure" and forgeting that what really pushes the price of fuel up is the big tax burden. The government refuses the opposition claims and they say that with this policy, gasoline prices could fall 9 cents and diesel prices 1 cent. However, during the vote there was a tense moment. One of the proposal presented by the opposition, CDS, demanded the government to reduce the fuel tax and for brief seconds this was approved because BE voted in favour. BE immediately understood their mistake and retracted their vote, defeating the CDS bill.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 17, 2021, 08:05:44 PM
Costa and the "warning" of the Electoral Commission about the Recovery Plan (PRR): PM should be neutral but specialists say that Costa only acts like this because of the very weak opposition.


Quote
Costa and the PRR are an unavoidable sponge cake. Opposition should focus on splitting the slices

The ongoing campaign for the local elections, which pundits are labeling "boring" and "lame", has been dominated by the PM's speeches about the EU Recovery Plan and if it's right for the PM to use the plan in benefit of the PS campaign. The opposition is criticizing, daily, the PM for his constant promisses or policies regarding the plan, and the Electoral Commission (CNE) gave a "warning" to Costa saying he should be neutral in announcing stuff during the campaign, but will only act if someone issues a complaint, which hasn't happened yet. Pundits and specialists say it's normal for a PM, specially in midterm local elections, to push for massive plans but the fact that some PS candidates are using the plan as a way to sway voters in supporting the PS, highlighting that their "close relationship with Costa" would give more money to their towns, is censored by pundits/experts who point out that such positions can even hurt the government with accusations, or suspicions, of patronage or apparatus.

But, if this is controversial is mainly because of how weak the opposition is, pundits and experts say. Insted of discussing where will "the slices" go, the opposition seems to be more interested in pointing to the "populist" message of the PM rather than discussing the plan itself, which isn't consensual and even President Marcelo, in private, says it's a weak plan. Pundits say that Costa can act and get away like this because the opposition let's him, and that no one expects a "yellow card" to the government, but rather a "red card" for the opposition. Costa refuses any accusations of "electoralism" or "populism" and even after the "warning" of the CNE, he continues pushinging for the plan in each rally he attends.  


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 18, 2021, 06:15:44 AM
Tense moments in some places during the campaign:

- In Palmela, a CDS candidate for that same parish was received with gun shots (https://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/setubal/palmela/dois-suspeitos-em-fuga-apos-dispararem-em-direcao-a-candidata-do-cds-em-palmela-14134783.html) while she, and others, where placing campaign posters in a street. According to the candidate, a motorcycle with two individuals dressed in black, approached the CDS team and started firing shots. Another two shots were fired, but they hit a house which created panic in the residents. The police is now searching for these individuals;

- In Santa Maria da Feira, the house of the PS candidate for a local parish, São João de Ver, was vandalized. (https://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/aveiro/santa-maria-da-feira/vandalizada-casa-de-candidato-do-ps-a-junta-de-sao-joao-de-ver-14133795.html) The street wall of the house of Filipe Oliveira was vandalized with the words "Give up SOB". Mr Oliveira says that he's very saddened by what happened and that a line was crossed today with the vandalization of his house;

Also, CHEGA is about to remove a candidate:

- CHEGA is on the verge of removing the party's candidate for São Brás de Alportel, Algarve, because of racist comments he made against PM Costa. (https://observador.pt/2021/09/17/candidato-autarquico-do-chega-chama-indiano-vingativo-a-antonio-costa-partido-deve-afasta-lo/) During a debate for the city's mayoral race, the candidate seemed confused and not making sense when he called António Costa "a vengeful Indian" and said that because President Sampaio was in hospital "someone may have stolen some State secrets from him". The district party is furious with the candidate and his removal from the race is on the table.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 18, 2021, 11:44:05 AM
2021 local election campaign: Campaign posters:

PAN - Lisbon city

Quote
Lisbon is in your hands. On 26 September vote PAN

Isaltino Morais Independent campaign - Oeiras city

Quote
Isaltino is Inovate

PS - Paredes city

Quote
President of rigor and truth. Alexandre Almeida.

PSD/CDS/PPM - Aveiro city

Quote
Alliance with Aveiro 2021. Ribau Esteves

PSD/CDS - Guimarães city

Quote
New Energy. Bruno Fernandes Guimarães 2021

CHEGA - Cascais city

Quote
Increasingly CHEGA (Enough) Cascais

PS - Gondomar city:

Quote
The force of change

Posters from the twitter page of Ephemera archive.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 18, 2021, 09:07:38 PM
Gaffe of CDU candidate for Almada city, Maria das Dores Meira, when she says the wrong city...


Quote
Appealing to the “Setubalenses” ... in Almada: “Sorry, this is not yet in place”

Quote
(...)
Things even seemed to be going well when, nine minutes into the speech, Dores Meira then begins to enunciate the work done, in the past, by the communist mayors who, between 1976 and 2017, managed the destinies of Almada. He even recalled "the Liberty Square and the Forum Romeu Correia, made for the enjoyment of the inhabitants of Setubal". Ups. There is a movement of arms in the front row and not even the masks erase the voices of the audience that shouts: "Almadenses, Almadenses". António Manuel Ribeiro, leader of the UHF and supporter of the candidate, also shakes his hands in the air. It is he who sings "Somos de Almada", the official anthem of the campaign that was distributed, in CD format, at the start of the rally.

From the pulpit, there is no possible escape. The candidate who was going to follow the speech is forced to take a forced break. Breathe. "I'm sorry, I'm very sorry, but this isn't in place yet." And she manages to recover the thread of the skein and even reinforce attacks on socialist opponents. The people are serene and do not fail to follow Dores Meira's speech and, in the end, applaud her. Mistakes happen, everyone knows. But there are some more annoying than others. And this one didn't go well.

Awkward...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 19, 2021, 06:29:42 AM
IPOM poll for Braga city (https://rum.pt/news/juntos-por-braga-pode-reforcar-maioria-e-ps-registar-o-pior-resultado-de-semprenbsp) - PSD/CDS/PPM incumbent, 193,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

55.5% PSD/CDS/PPM/Alliance (+3.4)
23.3% PS (-4.6)
  5.3% BE (+0.5)
  5.1% CDU (-4.5)
  2.7% CHEGA (new)
  1.6% PAN (new)
  0.8% IL (new)
  0.4% Livre (new)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

Poll conducted between 13 and 16 September 2021. Polled 796 voters in Braga city. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 19, 2021, 11:28:41 AM
2021 local election campaign update:

- PM Costa is on a massive crisscross campaign tour, this weekend, in the North of the country (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-18-O-dia-da-libertacao-para-Costa-chegou-mais-cedo-5cc432f1), mainly in Braga and Porto districts. The Prime Minister is campaigning with the Recovery Plan in his pocket and hoping the plan will help PS candidates in the region, mainly in Braga district where the PS has been losing ground in the last few years. Costa held several rallies were he promissed millions of euros is investments, and asked voters to elect the PS candidates in order to implement the Recovery Plan in their municipalities;



PM Costa in a rally in Barcelos city

- PSD leader Rui Rio spent the weekend, also in the North, between the districts of Viana do Castelo and Porto. (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-18-Bombos-foguetes-e-um-piscar-de-olho-a-direita-que-pode-fugir-para-o-Chega.-Rio-esta-no-Minho-e-ja-tem-plano-para-a-reforma-87156976) In Viana, he crisscrossed the district starting in the city of Viana and ending in Ponte de Lima, a CDS bastion, where he was received with fireworks and a lot of supporters. Mr Rio talked about the promisses of Costa saying he's promissing stuff he cannot deliver, warned about the high energy prices and talked about the laments of many business owners he has been talking to that say that they cannot hire people because of the social supports people don't want to lose;



Rui Rio at a rally in Ponte de Lima city

- CDU leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, spent the weekend in the Lisbon area and went to the big PCP rally in Almada where the Communist-Green alliance candidate made a "gaffe" that has become a bit viral. But Jerónimo railled against the PS accusing them of being in the "pocket of big corporate interests" and are aligned with PSD/CDS (https://observador.pt/2021/09/19/jeronimo-diz-que-ps-nao-toca-no-bife-do-lombo-dos-interesses-do-capital/). He adds that only a strong vote on CDU can bent the PS;



Jerónimo de Sousa and Maria das Dores Meira at a rally in Almada city

- BE leader, Catarina Martins, said she's surprised by how bad the PS reacts to criticisms. In a campaign stop in Póvoa de Varzim, my hometown, she criticized the recovery plan and said that in democracy it's normal to be critical and discuss things (https://observador.pt/2021/09/19/catarina-martins-estranha-que-costa-nao-entenda-criticas-normais-em-democracia/), so she finds it weird that the Socialists are so furious when someone tries to challenge them;

- CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, campaigned in Coimbra city with the PSD/CDS candidate for that city, José Manuel Silva. Coimbra is currently one of the closest PS vs PSD battles in the country. In Coimbra, Rodrigues dos Santos commented on the gun shot incident against a CDS candidate in Palmela saying they were conducted by "extremist forces" (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/tiroteio-em-palmela-lider-do-cds-diz-que-portugal-nao-pode-regressar-ao-prec_v1349611) and that Portugal cannot go back to the chaotic years of the PREC (1974-1975);

- CHEGA leader André Ventura took part in a chaotic and very rapid campaign event in Porto city, that only lasted 20 minutes. In his quick campaign stop in Porto, Ventura accused the minister of Health, Marta Temido, of violating campaign rules by going to a PS campaign event in her ministerial car;



André Ventura's campaign events during the weekend

- IL leader João Cotrim Figueiredo campaigned with Porto mayor, Rui Moreira (https://observador.pt/2021/09/18/campanha-a-mesa-com-os-amigos-cotrim-moreira-e-mayan-visitas-a-parte-il-garante-que-nao-cavalga-vitorias-de-outros/), this Saturday. IL is supporting the Independent mayor of Porto 3rd election bid, and criticized Costa use of the Recovery Plan as a election tool. Rui Moreira, on Friday, accused the presence of government ministers in the campaign as a "Salazarist" move from the government (https://observador.pt/2021/09/18/campanha-a-mesa-com-os-amigos-cotrim-moreira-e-mayan-visitas-a-parte-il-garante-que-nao-cavalga-vitorias-de-outros/);

- PAN leader Inês Sousa Real campaigned in Porto district and warned about the high costs of energy (https://observador.pt/2021/09/18/pan-diz-que-alteracoes-climaticas-nao-se-resolvem-com-aumento-da-energia/), and added that it's not by increasing the electricity bill that we fight climate change. She proposed tax cuts for families in the electricity bill, dismantle the EDP energy monopoly and tax those who indeed have polluting activities;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 20, 2021, 02:10:39 PM
Controversy as PM Costa "flip-flops" on the closing of the Galp refinery in Matosinhos, when in May he said it was good for the environment the shutdown of the refinery:


Quote
“Cynicism” or “Chavismo”? Costa under fire after giving "lesson" to Galp

During his massive crisscross weekend tour in the North of Portugal, Costa held a rally in Matosinhos city and he trashed Galp company, the main petrol company in Portugal, because of the shutdown of the oil refinery in the same city. Costa accused Galp of "so much nonsense, so much insensitivity, so much irresponsibility and so much lack of solidarity" adding that the company needs a "lesson". These remarks are being trashed in the media, by parties left to right and by workers unions. The main reason is that last May, Costa said the exact opposite: In May 2021, Costa said the shutdown of the refinery was a good thing as it will help in the fight against climate change. Parties on the left are trashing Costa for flip-flopping and of trying to mask the fact that he is Prime Minister and that the State still has a 7% share in the company. Parties on the right accuse Costa of attacking a private company and of bluntly lying in order to gain votes. Workers unions are also furious as they accuse the PM of using the social drama of the shutdown of the refinery in order to gain votes and that he did nothing to ease the job losses the shutdown will create.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 20, 2021, 02:27:17 PM
UCP–CESOP poll for Coimbra city (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/autarquicas-sondagem-da-empate-tecnico-entre-psd-e-ps-em-coimbra_n1349972) - PS incumbent, 141,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

35% PSD/CDS/PPM/Volt/RIR/Alliance/NC (+8)*
33% PS (-2)
11% CpC (+4)
   7% CDU (-1)
   4% CHEGA (new)
   3% IL (new)
   2% PAN (nc)
   5% Others/Invalid (nc)

Poll conducted between 18 and 19 September 2021. Polled 780 voters in Coimbra city. MoE of 3.50%.

*Compared with the 27% of the Coalition in 2017. The current PSD/CDS candidate got 16% as an independent in 2017.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 21, 2021, 04:52:51 AM
Official election page already up:

https://www.autarquicas2021.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

This page will post results on election night, plus give updates, during election day, of how turnout is going. The full list of candidates is also posted on the page.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 21, 2021, 02:16:18 PM
UCP–CESOP poll for Porto city (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/autarquicas-sondagem-para-a-rtp-da-maioria-absoluta-a-rui-moreira-no-porto_n1350220) - Independent incumbent, 232,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election results)

45% Rui Moreira (+1)
17% PS (-12)
14% PSD (+4)
  7% CDU (+1)
  4% BE (-1)
  3% PAN (+1)
  3% CHEGA (new)
  1% Livre (new)
  1% Volt Portugal (new)
  5% Others/Invalid (+2)

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 September 2021. Polled 1,041 voters in Porto city. MoE of 3.00%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 21, 2021, 06:24:31 PM
2021 local election campaign update:

With just 3 more days of campaigning left, party leaders are rapping up their cases.

- António Costa campaigned today in Alcácer do Sal, Setúbal. This city is controlled by CDU since 2013, and the PS wants it back. Costa refused the criticisms that he's using government apparatus to gain votes and also commented about the ongoing controversy about his "flip flop" (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/antonio-costa-negou-ter-entrado-em-contradicao-sobre-a-refinaria-da-galp-de-matosinhos_v1350263) regarding the shutdown of the Matosinhos oil refinery. The PM said he's only being trashed because the elections is in 5 days, and that Galp did really failled on everything, adding that reducing carbon emissions needs to be done in a way that safeguards people's jobs. He ended his day with a rally in Évora city, a PS target;

- PSD leader, Rui Rio, was in Fafe and Póvoa de Varzim today. The first is a PS stronghold where the PSD only won an election in 1976, and the second a big PSD stronghold. Rio said he's confident about the PSD chances next Sunday, and that he's hearing a lot of support for his party, and himself, in the streets. Yesterday, Rio mocked Costa's crisscross campaign tour saying he's like a machine gun that is firing at everywhere he passes (https://www.publico.pt/2021/09/20/politica/noticia/rui-rio-vale-costa-campanha-ps-metralhadora-punho-1978152);

- Catarina Martins, BE leader, trashed PS and PSD, accusing Costa of promissing investments he never delivered (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/catarina-martins-acusa-costa-de-prometer-agora-o-que-antes-recusou-fazer_n1350222) in the past and also the PSD for only being worried about their internal issues and not having ideas and a plan for the country;

- PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa spent the day in Évora district, where he held small meetings with voters and defended several policies like free kindergartens for all children, rich and poor, until 3 years old (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/jeronimo-despovoamento-e-consequencia-das-politicas-de-sucessivos-governos_a1350207). He believes that policies like these are needed to stop the desertification of places like in the Alentejo region;

- CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, spent the day in a CDS stronghold, Vale de Cambra (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-21-Chicao-no-microclima-de-Vale-de-Cambra-onde-o-CDS-e-o-maior-Eu-nao-olho-ao-sexo-do-presidente-do-partido-fe9a045d), while IL leader, João Cotrim Figeuiredo, spent the day in Viseu in which he gave a cooking recipe to make "Portugal more liberal" (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/politica/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-21-autarquicas-cotrim-de-figueiredo-da-receita-para-um-portugal-mais-liberal/);

- CHEGA's campaign isn't going well, with several empty rallies and lack of organization, plus several local candidates that are making headlines for making embarrassing suggestions and being "out of this world". Ventura has said that there will be political consequences for him, if the results on Sunday are bad;

In the two main cities, the campaigns are in different moods:

- In Lisbon city, both Medina (PS) and Moedas (PSD) are holding their last events and trying to mobilize their supporters. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/09/21/local/reportagem/medina-moedas-sonhos-abobora-mudanca-1978313?ref=autarquicas-2021&cx=stack) Polls show that Medina has the edge, and both campaigns are waiting for next few days polls to see who has the momentum and is in on track to win on Sunday. Turnout will probably be a big factor in Lisbon;

- In Porto city, with Rui Moreira having "a walk in the park", the main race is who will be in second, PS or PSD (https://www.publico.pt/2021/09/21/politica/noticia/passeio-moreira-porto-onde-partidos-lutam-vereacoes-1978263?ref=autarquicas-2021&cx=stack)? Both parties are neck and neck in the polls, but with a slight advantage for the PS. Both candidates are also trying to mobilize their supporters as turnout, like Lisbon, will be crucial for the "race for second place";


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 22, 2021, 02:07:22 PM
UCP–CESOP poll for Lisbon city (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/mundo/autarquicas-medina-ganha-lisboa-mas-deve-falhar-maioria-absoluta-conclui-sondagem-para-a-rtp_n1350483) - PS incumbent, 545,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

37% PS/Livre (-5)
28% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-4)
11% CDU (+1)
  7% BE (nc)
  5% IL (new)
  3% PAN (nc)
  3% CHEGA (new)
  1% Volt Portugal (new)
  5% Others/Invalid (-1)

Poll conducted between 16 and 20 September 2021. Polled 1,292 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 2.70%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 22, 2021, 05:50:00 PM
In my neighboring town, Vila do Conde, the race is becoming crazy...

Independent movement candidate tries to "buy" the vote of an elderly couple by offering them 100 euros:


Quote
Local elections 2021: Vila do Conde. Independent NAU mayor accused of “buying” votes

A parish president, and candidate for reelection, is being accused of trying to "buy" votes. It's being reported that Filipe Santos, independent parish president of Macieira da Maia parish, offered 100 euros to an elderly couple to vote for the independent movement instead of the PS. And he gave them a condition: on election date they had to take a photo of the cross in the right place in the ballot. There seems to be other cases. In this case, this elderly couple had decided to vote PS, but the offering of the Independent candidate, they changed their minds, but local PS campaign workers caught the movements of the independents and complained about it. Público newspaper also reports that Mr Santos parents have a mini-market where costumers can pay their purchases in the end of every month, and that if this elderly couple doesn't vote in the Independents next Sunday, they would lose this benefit.

The Independent movement NAU hasn't reacted yet to this, with Filipe Santos first rejecting to make a comment, but the he phoned to the newspaper saying the accusations are "false". The mayor of Vila do Conde, Elisa Ferraz of NAU movement, didn't want to expand the issue and talked about her campaign platform. The PS candidate, Vítor Costa, is shocked by the allegations.

The race seems close in Vila do Conde, between the Independents and the PS. Last time, in 2017, PSD voters voted massively in the Independents in order to defeat the PS. We'll see what happens next Sunday.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 22, 2021, 08:13:39 PM
Polls for Funchal city - PS/BE incumbent, 106,000 inhabitants:

Intercampus poll for Jornal da Madeira: (https://www.pressreader.com/portugal/jornal-madeira/20210922/281492164458198)

Vote share %:

38.8% PSD/CDS (+0.5)
29.8% PS/BE/PAN/MPT/PDR (-1.6)
   3.0% PTP (+2.1)
   2.3% CHEGA (-0.1)
   2.1% CDU (nc)
   1.6% JPP (+0.4)
   1.5% IL (-0.3)
   0.3% PPM (new)
   0.2% Livre (new)
   2.7% Others/Invalid (-0.9)
17.8% Undecided (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 3 and 20 September 2021. Polled 1,200 voters in Funchal city. MoE of 2.80%.

Eurosondagem poll for DN Madeira/TSF Madeira: (https://www.pressreader.com/portugal/jornal-madeira/20210922/281492164458198)

Vote share %:

42.5% PS/BE/PAN/MPT/PDR (-0.3)
40.9% PSD/CDS (+2.1)
   3.2% JPP (-0.4)
   3.0% CHEGA (-1.2)
   2.6% IL (+0.4)
   2.2% CDU (nc)
   1.2% PPM (+0.7)
   0.4% Livre (new)
   0.3% PTP (-1.3)
   3.7% Others/Invalid (-0.5)

Poll conducted between 18 and 20 September 2021. Polled 1,073 voters in Funchal city. MoE of 2.98%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 23, 2021, 06:16:32 AM
Complaints to the Electoral Commission soar this year (https://www.cmjornal.pt/mais-cm/especiais/autarquicas-2021/detalhe/cne-ja-recebeu-730-queixas-sobre-autarquicas): so far, 730 complaints, double the number of 2017.

Complaints against candidacies to the Electoral Commission (CNE) soared this year. So far, 730 complaints have been issued, and this number is almost double of the number of complaints in 2017, which just 473 were issued. The majority of complaints are against incumbent mayors running for reelection for using municipal institutions and apparatus to make campaign for their party.

CNE is also expected, during this Thursday, to release a ruling regarding the controversial use of the Recovery Plan as a PS campaign pitch by the Prime Minister (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-09-21-CNE-recebe-queixas-de-cidadaos-contra-Costa-por-usar-PRR-em-campanha-909b8561). CNE said their received half a dozen complaints against Costa, from ordinary citizens, and will issue a ruling about the use of the Recovery Plan in the campaign.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 23, 2021, 08:53:30 AM
Multidados poll for Gondomar city (https://issuu.com/vivacidade/docs/72_dpis_9909f37e8cae08) - PS incumbent, 164,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

55.6% PS (+10.1)
21.2% PSD/CDS (+10.2)
12.4% CDU (-3.0)
  4.7% BE (+1.1)
  2.5% CHEGA (new)
  1.7% IL (new)
  1.1% PAN (new)
  0.7% Others/Invalid (-23.7)

Poll conducted between 7 and 17 September 2021. Polled 1,000 votes in Gondomar city. MoE of 3.09%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 23, 2021, 12:52:30 PM
CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, in Barcelos city...



He really likes drums. xD


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 23, 2021, 03:07:35 PM
Pitagórica/TVI polls for Lisbon and Porto cities:

Lisbon city (https://tvi24.iol.pt/politica/eleicoes/sondagem-tvi-medina-aumenta-ligeiramente-vantagem-sobre-moedas), Vote share %:

40.6% PS/Livre (+0.8 )
33.1% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (+0.5)
  7.6% CDU (-0.9)
  4.7% BE (-2.1)
  3.2% PAN (-0.6)
  3.2% IL (+0.2)
  2.1% CHEGA (-0.7)
  5.5% Others/Invalid (+2.8 )

Poll conducted between 15 and 21 September 2021. Polled 600 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 4.08%.

Porto city (https://tvi24.iol.pt/politica/candidatos/sondagem-tvi-rui-moreira-ganha-com-52-7-dos-votos), Vote share %:

52.7% Rui Moreira (-0.1)
15.3% PS (-0.4)
11.5% PSD (-2.5)
  6.1% CDU (+0.3)
  4.1% BE (+0.6)
  2.9% PAN (+0.7)
  2.7% CHEGA (+0.9)
  0.7% Livre (new)
  4.0% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 15 and 20 September 2021. Polled 600 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 4.08%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 23, 2021, 05:42:17 PM
Controversy as the secretary of internationalization, Eurico Brilhante Dias, said that Portugal "gained with Covid":


Quote
"We gain with covid-19", says secretary of state

The secretary of internationalization in Costa's cabinet, Eurico Brilhante Dias, is in a middle of a controversy regarding a remark he made that has become a major "gaffe". Mr Dias told to reporters, in a Paris economic fair, that: "I'm going to say something that might not be politically correct. We gain with covid-19.", adding also that "people died and many people were very ill, but Portugal showed to be an organized country that successfully faced a very disruptive reality". These remarks are being received with surprise and amazement, with all opposition parties trashing the secretary. PM Costa devalued the remark, but even he gave a "reprimand" to his secretary by saying that "the pandemic control in Portugal is not a tourist poster". (https://observador.pt/2021/09/23/antonio-costa-diz-que-controlo-da-pandemia-em-portugal-nao-e-um-cartaz-turistico/)

The Foreign minister was forced to sent a press release (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/mne-esclarece-que-brilhante-dias-lamentou-mortes-e-salientou-efeitos-negativos-da-pandemia-14153643.html) correcting the words of the secretary and saying that Mr Dias is aware of the negative impacts of the pandemic and is sorry for the deaths due to the pandemic.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2021, 09:43:03 AM
CNE is also expected, during this Thursday, to release a ruling regarding the controversial use of the Recovery Plan as a PS campaign pitch by the Prime Minister (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/autarquicas/2021-09-21-CNE-recebe-queixas-de-cidadaos-contra-Costa-por-usar-PRR-em-campanha-909b8561). CNE said their received half a dozen complaints against Costa, from ordinary citizens, and will issue a ruling about the use of the Recovery Plan in the campaign.

CNE closes the complaints against Costa, but a group of mayors is now suing CNE because of this:


Quote
Election Commission archives complaint against António Costa and European bazooka propaganda

The Electoral Commission (CNE) decided to close the complaints against the PM for using the EU Recovery Plan (PRR) as a PS campaign platform. CNE ruled that although the facts in the complaints are true, they are not punishable. According to the Commission, more complaints against the PM arrived at their desk, but any decision will only be made after the elections. The CNE, last week, warned Costa that the use of the PRR could violate the "neutrality and impartiality duties" of an office holder.  And because of this, some mayors, headed by Isaltino Morais (Oeiras city mayor) are filling a lawsuit against CNE for violating the law. Mr Isaltino accuses the CNE of punishing him, while they didn't do anything to the Prime Minister, as Isaltino was forced to remove city hall publicity as the CNE rulled it violated the same "neutrality and impartiality duties".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2021, 12:31:25 PM
Last campaign events of the main candidates in Lisbon city:

Fernando Medina (PS) with PM Costa in the traditional walkabout in Lisbon downtown:


Carlos Moedas (PSD) at a campaign rally last night:


Beatriz Gomes Dias (BE) at a rally last night:


João Ferreira (CDU) and Bruno Hugo Soares (IL) to hold events later in the day.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2021, 05:19:34 PM
Final campaign events of the rest of the candidates:

João Ferreira (CDU) in a rally in Lisbon city:


Bruno Hugo Soares (IL) in his final rally with the IL national leader:


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2021, 05:57:40 PM
Main party leaders final campaign events:

- PM António Costa was today in rallies in Odivelas, Porto and finished in Viseu. In Porto city, Costa promissed a new referendum on regionalization (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-24-Autarquicas-em-direto-Costa-promete-referendo-a-regionalizacao-Rio-da-Costa-como-peru-de-Natal-Chicao-quer-direita-unida-99478630) to decide the matter once and for all, and in Viseu city, where the PS is really making a strong push in order to defeat the PSD, Costa said it's time for change in the city as the "future isn't built with the past", a reference to the PSD candidate, Fernando Ruas;



António Costa at a rally in Porto city.

- Rui Rio, PSD leader, spent his final hours of the campaign in the Azores islands (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-24-Autarquicas-em-direto-Costa-promete-referendo-a-regionalizacao-Rio-da-Costa-como-peru-de-Natal-Chicao-quer-direita-unida-99478630). Mr Rio ended the campaign in the Azores because the PSD was able to return to power last year. Rio trashed, once again, Costa promisses with the Recovery Plan listing all the promisses Costa made in each town or city he passed, adding that the Socialists don't present solutions and don't won't to change anything suggesting that going to present reforms to the PS is like "the turkey voting for Christmas". He also said that the PS is in the pocket of special interests and doesn't support small businesses;



Rui Rio at a rally in Ponta Delgada, Azores.

- Catarina Martins, BE leader, ended her campaign in Porto city (https://observador.pt/2021/09/24/catarina-martins-pede-voto-no-be-o-mais-determinado-na-mudanca-do-poder-local/). She was part of a protest of Petrogal workers against PM Costa words about the shutdown of Matosinhos oil refinery in the morning, and during the afternoon she was part of a rally and walkabout with BE's candidate for Porto mayor. To supporters she said that the vote for BE is the only one that will avoid "absolute majorities";

- PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, campaigned in Almada and Lisbon today (https://observador.pt/2021/09/24/historico-comunista-domingos-abrantes-junta-se-a-jeronimo-no-ultimo-esforco-para-recuperar-almada/). The Communist-Green alliance is doing everything they can in order to "reconquer" Almada city, and was also part of the final rally for their Lisbon candidate, João Ferreira, in which he said he wants more councillors in Lisbon city hall;



Jerónimo de Sousa at the final rally in Lisbon.

- Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, CDS leader, ended his campaign in Oliveira do Hospital, Coimbra, his hometown (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes/autarquicas-2021/2021-09-24-Alo-Rui-Rio--Lider-do-CDS-fecha-campanha-a-pedir-coligacao-com-o-PSD-6070a829). He's running for the municipal assemble there, and he asked voters to "punish" the PS in these elections in order for the rightwing can go together to a victory in 2023, hinting an election coalition with the PSD in 2023;

- PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, spent the last hours of the campaign in Braga city (https://observador.pt/2021/09/24/pan-diz-que-vitoria-no-domingo-seria-eleger-vereadores/), and said that victory on election day would be the election of councillors across the country, and that they are ready to fight for animals rights, fight against climate change in town halls across the country;

- IL closed their campaign in Lisbon city, with their leader, João Cotrim Figueiredo, urging people to vote Liberal against the "absolute power of the PS" (https://observador.pt/2021/09/24/cotrim-de-figueiredo-apela-ao-voto-na-il-contra-poder-absoluto-do-ps/). He added that people are tired of the decline of Portugal. There is currently some tension between PSD and IL, as some PSD members accuse IL of dividing the rightwing vote and hurting the PSD, mainly in Lisbon city;



João Cotrim Figueiredo at the IL rally in Lisbon.

- CHEGA leader, André Ventura, ended his campaign with a special guest: Vox leader Santiago Abascal. Despite relations between both parties being tense, they seem to have "buried the hatchet". Ventura and Abascal took part in Nuno Graciano's final rally in Lisbon city;



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 24, 2021, 06:05:44 PM
Midnight, 25 September and the campaign is over. Today is reflection day. All campaign news, events and publication of polls are forbidden during the next 24 hours.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2021, 07:18:47 PM
Election day has arrived. (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/eleicoes-autarquicas-decorrem-no-domingo-com-mais-de-93-milhoes-de-eleitores)

Polls will open at 8am and close at 8pm. Polls in the Azores islands will close one hour later, at 9pm Continental Portugal time, because of the time difference. At that hour, 9pm, TV networks will release exit polls and the first official results will be published.

There are 9,323,688 registered voters for this election that can vote in 13,821 precincts across the country. Voters will be given 3 ballots: a green ballot to elect Municipal Councils (Mayors), a yellow ballot to elect members of the Municipal Assembly and a white ballot to elect members of the Parish Assembly. There are 308 races for Municipal Councils and Assemblies, plus 3,070 of the 3,092 parishes will vote to elect Parish Assemblies. The remaining 22 parishes don't elect an assembly because they have 150 or fewer registered voters, and therefore elect their members in a town hall meeting.

The 3 main networks, RTP, SIC and TVI will, at 9pm, release exit polls for the main races: RTP will have exit polls for Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra, Almada and Figueira da Foz; SIC will have for Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra and Almada; and TVI just Lisbon and Porto. CMTV is expected to also release exit polls.

Results will be posted here: https://www.autarquicas2021.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

The site will also have turnout updates during the day.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:15:02 AM
Polls opened 3 hours ago. Party leaders and the main candidates for the big cities are now voting and talking to the press.

Reports about turnout are few, so far. The first update will be released at 1pm, 2 hours from now.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:32:18 AM
Election day update:

2 parish elections have been postponed because there are errors in the ballots. In one parish in Águeda (Aveiro) polling workers found that there's a list that isn't running, and in another parish in Idanha-a-Nova (Castelo Branco), polling workers realised that one candidacy is missing from the ballot.

Elections in these two parishes are now postponed and will happen in 2 weeks, on 10 October.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 07:01:33 AM
Voter turnout at 12pm: (compared with past local elections at the same time)

2021: 20.94% (-1.11%)
2017: 22.05%
2013: 19.44%
2009: 21.23%
2005: 21.35%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 10:07:07 AM
1 hour until the 4pm turnout update.

Reports on TV and newspapers say that turnout is normal, no surge of voters, no big lines and a waiting time of around 5/10 minutes in order to vote.

I myself didn't vote yet. I'm following the German elections also, so I will vote a bit later.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 11:02:50 AM
Voter turnout at 4pm: (compared with past local elections at the same time)

2021: 42.34% (-2.05%)
2017: 44.39%
2013: 43.43%
2009: 45.30%
2005: 48.00%
2001: 42.50%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2021, 11:35:48 AM
When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 11:42:01 AM
When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?

Polls close in about 2 and half hours, at 8pm. Exit polls and results will be released one hour later, as polls in the Azores only close at that time.

Turnout is low, not that much, but, yeah, low. The voter registration rolls had an almost 100,000 voter drop compared with 2017, so even if the share % of turnout is basically the same as in 2017, the actual number of ballots cast would be lower.

There's no indications who favours with low turnout. It could benefit either side. In 2019, the low turnout benefited no one as the final result was very similar with the pre election polls. In urban areas, the turnout seems very low, while in more rural areas it seems to be much higher.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2021, 11:49:28 AM
When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?

Polls close in about 2 and half hours, at 8pm. Exit polls and results will be released one hour later, as polls in the Azores only close at that time.

Turnout is low, not that much, but, yeah, low. The voter registration rolls had an almost 100,000 voter drop compared with 2017, so even if the share % of turnout is basically the same as in 2017, the actual number of ballots cast would be lower.

There's no indications who favours with low turnout. It could benefit either side. In 2019, the low turnout benefited no one as the final result was very similar with the pre election polls. In urban areas, the turnout seems very low, while in more rural areas it seems to be much higher.

Thank you! I'll be waiting.

The bolded is... intriguing. Why is that? Fear of longer lines or COVID in urban, denser areas?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 11:53:25 AM
When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?

Polls close in about 2 and half hours, at 8pm. Exit polls and results will be released one hour later, as polls in the Azores only close at that time.

Turnout is low, not that much, but, yeah, low. The voter registration rolls had an almost 100,000 voter drop compared with 2017, so even if the share % of turnout is basically the same as in 2017, the actual number of ballots cast would be lower.

There's no indications who favours with low turnout. It could benefit either side. In 2019, the low turnout benefited no one as the final result was very similar with the pre election polls. In urban areas, the turnout seems very low, while in more rural areas it seems to be much higher.

Thank you! I'll be waiting.

The bolded is... intriguing. Why is that? Fear of longer lines or COVID in urban, denser areas?

No, on the contrary, it's quite normal. In many urban areas, people don't have a strong link with local government and pay more attention to national government issues: healthcare, economy, transports, etc. In rural areas, where the national government is a distant institution, local government is crucial for everything rural communities have, therefore a higher turnout rate. In general elections, the trend is exactly the opposite: high turnout in urban areas, low turnout in rural areas.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 01:05:34 PM
Just came back from voting. No lines, just one person ahead of me, in 5 minutes everything was done.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 01:10:00 PM
TV coverage links:

RTP1: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp1
SIC: https://sic.pt/direto
TVI: https://tviplayer.iol.pt/direto/TVI
TVI24: https://tviplayer.iol.pt/direto/TVI24

I believe none are geoblocked.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on September 26, 2021, 01:13:05 PM
Let's see what the results are. I am very interested in the results in Silves, Portimão and Faro. Yes, I have my roots in the Algarve ;)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 01:16:37 PM
Let's see what the results are. I am very interested in the results in Silves, Portimão and Faro. Yes, I have my roots in the Algarve ;)

Of those 3, I think that Faro may be the only one which could be at play. Silves, IMO, will be a CDU hold and Portimão a PS hold.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 01:26:05 PM
CMTV is projecting a turnout rate between 51-54%. Data from Intercampus.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on September 26, 2021, 01:28:08 PM
Let's see what the results are. I am very interested in the results in Silves, Portimão and Faro. Yes, I have my roots in the Algarve ;)

Of those 3, I think that Faro may be the only one which could be at play. Silves, IMO, will be a CDU hold and Portimão a PS hold.

This is what I expect, but you can't be sure ;)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 01:31:35 PM
In Vila Pouca de Aguiar (Vila Real district), an armed man forced polling workers to close down a polling station as he was threatening people on the street (https://www.cmjornal.pt/portugal/detalhe/homem-armado-ameaca-pessoas-e-encerra-urna-em-freguesia-de-vila-pouca-de-aguiar?ref=HP_PrimeirosDestaques) with his gun. According to the media, the man thought that there were conducting voter fraud in that polling station.

The police was called and the man was escorted by the police. The polling station was reopen shortly after.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 01:35:08 PM
Let's see what the results are. I am very interested in the results in Silves, Portimão and Faro. Yes, I have my roots in the Algarve ;)

Of those 3, I think that Faro may be the only one which could be at play. Silves, IMO, will be a CDU hold and Portimão a PS hold.

This is what I expect, but you can't be sure ;)

Of course, but I have a feeling that this election will be a "status-quo" election. I believe that the changes will be minimal. I may be completely wrong, of course, but that's my hunch.

30 minutes until polls close in Continental Portugal and Madeira. At that hour, RTP, SIC and TVI will release their turnout projections.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 01:47:16 PM
13 minutes until the first polls close.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 02:01:27 PM
Polls have closed. Still open in the Azores.

Turnout projections:

RTP1: 50-55%
SIC: 50-55%
TVI: 50-55%

Exactly the same in the 3 networks. Adding the CMTV projection, the average gives us a turnout rate of 52.50%, just slightly below the record low turnout of 2013, 52.60%.

Let's see how it will be in the end of the night.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 02:44:28 PM
15 minutes until the release of the exit polls.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 03:03:30 PM
Exit polls:

Lisbon: Too close to call. Moedas and Medina neck and neck.
Porto: Moreira by a landslide, PS and PSD battle for 2nd place.
Coimbra: PSD gains the city from the PS
Almada: PS hold
Amadora: PS hold.
Figueira da Foz: Santana Lopes gains the city from the PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 03:04:52 PM
I'm shocked with the exit polls.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on September 26, 2021, 03:06:08 PM
I'm very surprised as well. Great result for the center-right if they take back Lisbon.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 03:11:03 PM
I'm very surprised as well. Great result for the center-right if they take back Lisbon.

Indeed. They seem to have won Coimbra by a landslide and this is important as the mayor of Coimbra is the chair of the National Association of Mayors.

It's going to be a long night.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2021, 03:39:08 PM
I am also pretty shocked that the PSD is apparently doing so well. Bad night for Costa incoming?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:01:00 PM
I am also pretty shocked that the PSD is apparently doing so well. Bad night for Costa incoming?

Sorry, for the delay. Dinner and kitchen stuff. Yeah, so far, things are looking rather good for the PSD. They have lost some places that were expected, but have gained, so far, 2 towns in Évora district.

Lisbon is a huge shock. Huge.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:02:58 PM
Cities by party: (so far)

46 PS
41 PSD
  5 CDU
  4 Independents
  1 CDS


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:04:51 PM
CDU are really doing badly, also. Jerónimo de Sousa is now speaking and he has conceded that the results are not good.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:12:02 PM
Funchal seems to be lost for the PS. PSD/CDS gain here.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:18:31 PM
Cartaxo, a PS bastion since 1976, seems also to be lost. PSD gain.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:20:26 PM
PS wins Monchique from the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:23:52 PM
Cities by party so far:

74 PS
56 PSD
  9 Independents
  7 CDU
  2 CDS
  1 JPP


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:28:15 PM
PSD gains Reguengos de Monsaraz from the PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:30:00 PM
PS gains Mora (Évora) from CDU. CDU was a bastion since 1976.

PS holds Castelo Branco city.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:34:26 PM
PSD holds Santarém city, but loses their majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:42:05 PM
Cities won so far:

88 PS
70 PSD
10 CDU
10 Independents
  2 CDS
  1 JPP


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:42:38 PM
PSD/CDS gains Oliveira de Frades (Viseu) from We, the Citizens! (NC).


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: kaoras on September 26, 2021, 05:43:26 PM
What is the electoral system? Is it like in Spain or there are separate elections for mayors and councils?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:45:44 PM
What is the electoral system? Is it like in Spain or there are separate elections for mayors and councils?

No, you get 3 ballots: One to elect councillors and the mayor; Another to elect members of the Municipal Assembly (the local "Parliament"; and a last one to elect parish assembly members, the tiniest local government authority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 05:53:32 PM
Acording to RTP, PSD is on track to gain Portalegre city from an Independent, but could lose Guarda, also to an Independent.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:00:50 PM
PSD hold Faro with absolute majority.

Évora is currently a 3 way race: 27% CDU; 24% PS; 20% PSD/CDS


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:05:11 PM
PSD holds Viseu. Fernando Ruas is back.

It's now official, PSD has lost Guarda to an Independent (a PSD dissident).


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:07:06 PM
PSD is claiming victory in Barcelos city. No official call yet.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:12:20 PM
All eyes are now in Lisbon city, where the count is being very slow.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on September 26, 2021, 06:14:48 PM
With 50% counted PS has 42% in Coimbra against 36% for the PSD-led list, let's see if it changes to match the exit poll


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:16:24 PM
With 50% counted PS has 42% in Coimbra against 36% for the PSD-led list, let's see if it changes to match the exit poll

Nothing yet from the urban area of the muncipality, which trends PSD even in bad elections for the party.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:17:19 PM
PS loses Marinha Grande to an Independent.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:23:15 PM
The PSD is performing really well in the Alentejo region, especially in Évora district. They won 4 cities. They had zero in 2017.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:29:24 PM
RTP has just said that Loures is a 3 way race between CDU, PS and PSD...

What the...?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:31:36 PM
PS has lost Elvas and Mealhada, two PS bastions, to Independents.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on September 26, 2021, 06:35:29 PM
RTP has just said that Loures is a 3 way race between CDU, PS and PSD...

What the...?
And PSD is currently in the lead! Only 20% counted though.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:37:41 PM
RTP has just said that Loures is a 3 way race between CDU, PS and PSD...

What the...?
And PSD is currently in the lead! Only 20% counted though.

Yes, but it's still surprising. And last time they had Ventura.. this time I have no idea who was the candidate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:39:41 PM
Acording to RTP, PSD is on track to gain Portalegre city from an Independent, but could lose Guarda, also to an Independent.

It's official. PSD gains Portalegre from an Independent. Évora, RTP is projecting, is a CDU hold.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:41:44 PM
My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim, was a PSD hold, but they dropped quite a bit. CHEGA got 5.5%. PS also grew 3%, to 22%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:42:57 PM
PS gains Valença city (Viana do Castelo) from the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:47:56 PM
CHEGA has elected 10 councillors, so far.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 06:52:49 PM
Santana Lopes is now speaking. Figueira hasn't been called yet, the urban area of Figueira is still out. With that yet to be counted, PS leads Santana 40-38%, so far.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on September 26, 2021, 07:01:33 PM
With 50% counted PS has 42% in Coimbra against 36% for the PSD-led list, let's see if it changes to match the exit poll

Nothing yet from the urban area of the muncipality, which trends PSD even in bad elections for the party.
Indeed PSD has won in the end.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 07:08:38 PM
The PS has lost the majority of municipalities in the Azores: 9 vs the 9 of the PSD/CDS coalitions. 1 town went to an Independent supported by the PSD.

In Madeira, the local PS leader, Paulo Cafôfo, resigned from the party leadership.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 07:13:55 PM
In terms of parishes won, PS the leads so far in 1,175 and the PSD in 1,139.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 07:14:09 PM
Costa is about to speak.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 07:39:58 PM
PS holds Portimão, Faro.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 07:53:25 PM
It seems that Moedas (PSD) has won Lisbon:



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 07:59:33 PM
It's now official: Santana Lopes has won Figueira da Foz by a 40-38% margin against the PS. PSD only got 11%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on September 26, 2021, 08:01:20 PM
Wait this was today?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:01:53 PM

Yep xD


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:02:43 PM
RTP is also reporting that the PS is ready to concede Lisbon to the PSD. What.. an... upset.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: VPH on September 26, 2021, 08:04:52 PM
RTP is also reporting that the PS is ready to concede Lisbon to the PSD. What.. an... upset.
I noticed PS is down a few points in many cities. This seems much more high profile though.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:07:10 PM
RTP is also reporting that the PS is ready to concede Lisbon to the PSD. What.. an... upset.
I noticed PS is down a few points in many cities. This seems much more high profile though.

This is a major upset. All of the polls gave Medina, at least, a 7% lead. The PS has also lost some cities to the PSD, and the gap between both major parties has been reduced.

Also, Fernando Medina just conceded and congratulated Carlos Moedas.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on September 26, 2021, 08:07:30 PM
The loss of Lisbon must be the real story of the night.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:09:59 PM
The loss of Lisbon must be the real story of the night.

No doubt. Totally unexpected, but it's just the "fall off the cloth" of what has been a very poor night for the PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on September 26, 2021, 08:12:05 PM
So what do this mean for costa


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:14:14 PM

The PS is still the biggest party in terms of mayor, but the expectations were so, so low for the PSD an so high for the PS, that this seems like a surprise "yellow card" to him. This is totally unexpected, it seems like 2001 all over again.

This also ends, probably, Medina's chances of one day leading the PS and being Costa's sucessor.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:23:39 PM
Rui Moreira, Porto's mayor, is now speaking. RTP is saying that he has lost his majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:33:20 PM
Coimbra city: 17/18 parishes counted:

44.2% PSD/CDS-PP/NC/PPM/Alliance/RIR/Volt
32.5% PS
  7.5% CDU
  6.3% CpC
  2.2% CHEGA
  1.7% IL
  1.4% PAN
  0.2% PDR/MPT


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:34:55 PM
Carlos Moedas is arriving at his headquarters. Rui Rio is also there. Quite a chaotic entry.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on September 26, 2021, 08:41:20 PM
So it's really happening? What even happened in Lisbon? How did the polls not see it coming?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:43:43 PM
So it's really happening? What even happened in Lisbon? How did the polls not see it coming?

It's 2001, all over again. Now, it would be good to know the final margin. The campaigns have the final count, but the official website hasn't release the results yet.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:50:41 PM
PS holds Sintra, but loses its majority. 35.3% PS; 27.5% PSD/CDS. CHEGA surpassed CDU in Sintra city.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 08:57:22 PM
In Campo de Ourique parish, Lisbon city, António Costa's son, Pedro Costa, was able to hold to his seat by just 25 votes over the PSD/CDS candidate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 09:16:07 PM
Cities won by party: (so far)

145 PS
109 PSD
  18 CDU
  18 Independents
    5 CDS
    1 JPP
    1 Livre

Vote share %:

37.1% PS
32.3% PSD
  8.0% CDU
  5.6% Independents
  4.1% CHEGA
  2.8% BE
  1.9% CDS
  1.3% IL
  1.1% PAN
  0.5% Livre
  0.3% JPP
  5.0% Others/Invalid

53.8% Turnout


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2021, 09:18:26 PM
And that's a wrap. Going to bed. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 26, 2021, 10:07:29 PM
So the PSD has overperformed expectations and most significantly gained back Lisbon to the surprise of all; I reckon this will be interpreted as a rebuke of the incumbent Socialist government, even if it's still a nominal victory for the PS in terms of votes and mayoralties taken. One side thing I am interested in is the result of the CDU, which appears to keep slipping further in its historical Alentejo heartland - it definitely did not reconquer Almada or Beja, and when was even the last time it had not topped the poll in the Setúbal district as a whole? I'm not sure if this is favouring the PS, the PSD/CDS-PP, or even infamously CHEGA.

The Lisbon shock also reminds me of how a good three mayors of Lisbon in the contemporary democratic era have later become either head of government or head of state - before Costa, Pedro Santana Lopes and the late Jorge Sampaio. Medina... will likely not be the fourth in the line.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2021, 04:57:22 AM
So the PSD has overperformed expectations and most significantly gained back Lisbon to the surprise of all; I reckon this will be interpreted as a rebuke of the incumbent Socialist government, even if it's still a nominal victory for the PS in terms of votes and mayoralties taken. One side thing I am interested in is the result of the CDU, which appears to keep slipping further in its historical Alentejo heartland - it definitely did not reconquer Almada or Beja, and when was even the last time it had not topped the poll in the Setúbal district as a whole? I'm not sure if this is favouring the PS, the PSD/CDS-PP, or even infamously CHEGA.

The Lisbon shock also reminds me of how a good three mayors of Lisbon in the contemporary democratic era have later become either head of government or head of state - before Costa, Pedro Santana Lopes and the late Jorge Sampaio. Medina... will likely not be the fourth in the line.

Yes, the media is labeling this as "yellow card" to Costa's government. This was unexpected as were some PS loses during the night, and some PS holds also, Sintra for example were a disappointment for the Socialists. The PSD suffer some loses also, like losing Guarda or Batalha, however. CDU had a really awful night, again. They lost Loures and Moita and barely hold Évora and Setúbal. The scale of the loses was bigger than expected. But CHEGA, didn't perform that well in the Alentejo region, and it was the PSD that surprised by winning 4 towns in Évora district, and polling almost at 20% in Beja city. The CDU fall is favouring the PS in the majority of towns, but the PSD are also picking up some votes. CHEGA is picking a few, but much less than expected.

Medina's prospects took a dramatic turn last night. He was one of Costa's, if not the main one, preferred successor in the PS leadership, and this loss means that it's probably over for Medina. Moedas, on the other hand, become an overnight hero to the center-right and has saved Rio's leadership in the PSD.

Also final results from Lisbon:

34.3% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance, 7 seats
33.3% PS/Livre, 7
10.5% CDU, 2
  6.2% BE, 1
  4.4% CHEGA, 0
  4.2% IL, 0
  2.7% PAN, 0
  0.4% Volt Portugal, 0
  4.0% Others/Invalid, 0

50.9% Turnout


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on September 27, 2021, 05:11:31 AM
Moedas will preside over a very left-wing council, however. The opposition will have to walk a thin line between keeping him in check and avoiding a by-election that would likely favour the Mayor.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2021, 05:17:49 AM
Moedas will preside over a very left-wing council, however. The opposition will have to walk a thin line between keeping him in check and avoiding a by-election that would likely favour the Mayor.

Yes, but I believe the CDU could be the "moderating force". For example, Rio's 1st term as mayor of Porto (2001-2005), had the support of the CDU councillor. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2021, 06:17:49 AM
PS barely holds Montijo city (Setúbal district): 29.4% PS; 28.1% PSD/CDS; 19.6% CDU


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2021, 06:31:34 AM
2 parishes still to be counted, and here's the almost final state of the parties:

148 PS (-12)
113 PSD (+15)
  19 CDU (-5)
  19 Independents (+2)
    6 CDS (nc)
    1 JPP (nc)
    1 Livre (nc)
    0 NC (-1)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2021, 11:39:25 AM
Parishes won by party:

1,263 PS (-39)
1,200 PSD (+33)
   413 Independents (+11)
   112 CDU (-27)
     43 CDS (-17)
     17 Livre (+10)
       5 JPP (nc)
       3 NC (nc)
       1 MPT (+1)
       1 PPM (+1)

Also, counting is over and here's the final state of the parties: (mayors elected)

148 PS (-12)
114 PSD (+16)
  19 CDU (-5)
  19 Independents (+2)
    6 CDS (nc)
    1 JPP (nc)
    1 Livre (nc)
    0 NC (-1)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2021, 12:11:49 PM
Lisbon results, compared with 2017:



The PSD/CDS barely improved compared with 4 years ago, just 2%, while the PS collapsed. The movements from the PS to other parties are quite interesting. And curious.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: VPH on September 27, 2021, 12:39:36 PM
Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2021, 01:02:24 PM
Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.

Yes, CHEGA gained some votes from CDU, but so did the PS and the PSD, as the Évora and Beja mayoral races show. But, overall, CHEGA's results in the Alentejo region were quite weak and well bellow expectations. In places where Ventura polled above 30% in the Presidential elections, CHEGA got poor numbers: Mourão, for example, he got 34% in January, but CHEGA only got 5% in the local elections.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: VPH on September 27, 2021, 02:53:55 PM
Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.

Yes, CHEGA gained some votes from CDU, but so did the PS and the PSD, as the Évora and Beja mayoral races show. But, overall, CHEGA's results in the Alentejo region were quite weak and well bellow expectations. In places where Ventura polled above 30% in the Presidential elections, CHEGA got poor numbers: Mourão, for example, he got 34% in January, but CHEGA only got 5% in the local elections.

Then again, I expected them to run well behind Ventura. It's a pretty personalistic movement still, with Ventura as the key figurehead. Traditional party affiliations might be more stubborn on the municipal level, as they are in many realigning areas around the world.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2021, 06:23:59 PM
Chega's strongest performances once again seem to track with old PCP/PEV bastions. While many of their voters went PS, it seems a not-insignificant minority broke for the populist right.

Yes, CHEGA gained some votes from CDU, but so did the PS and the PSD, as the Évora and Beja mayoral races show. But, overall, CHEGA's results in the Alentejo region were quite weak and well bellow expectations. In places where Ventura polled above 30% in the Presidential elections, CHEGA got poor numbers: Mourão, for example, he got 34% in January, but CHEGA only got 5% in the local elections.

Then again, I expected them to run well behind Ventura. It's a pretty personalistic movement still, with Ventura as the key figurehead. Traditional party affiliations might be more stubborn on the municipal level, as they are in many realigning areas around the world.

No doubt. There's a reason why CHEGA candidates posters had always a photo of Ventura next to them, but they were still unknown, some were complete nutheads, literally, and this hurt CHEGA a bit. However, CHEGA got 19 councillors and, for the sake of comparison, BE never reached 19 councillors in a single local election.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 27, 2021, 06:40:54 PM
After these elections, the number of "bastions" who haven't changed political parties since 1976, drooped to 24:


CDU lost 3 "bastions", while both PS and PSD lost two.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: crals on September 28, 2021, 04:31:10 AM
It's interesting how neatly the Portuguese and German party systems currently map out with each other

BE - West German Linke
CDU - East German Linke
PS - SPD
PAN - Grüne
IL - FDP
PSD - CDU
CDS - CSU
Chega - AfD


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 28, 2021, 05:16:04 AM
It's interesting how neatly the Portuguese and German party systems currently map out with each other

BE - West German Linke
CDU - East German Linke
PS - SPD
PAN - Grüne
IL - FDP
PSD - CDU
CDS - CSU
Chega - AfD

CDS would kill to be like CSU... 8) But, the rest, yep.

Also, changes in municipalities. 66 municipalities changed hands in this election (21% of 308), one of the biggest changes in recent history:


PSD gained 26 cities from the PS
PS gained 12 cities from the PSD
PS gained 6 cities from CDU
PSD gained 1 city from CDU
Independents gained 6 cities from the PS
Independents gained 4 cities from the PSD

Another thing that is dominating the coverage of the election results is polling, and how it failed to predict the outcome in Lisbon, overestimated Rui Moreira and also underestimated the PSD in Coimbra. The media is questioning if polling is accurate and if can be trusted (https://www.publico.pt/2021/09/27/politica/noticia/sondagens-falharam-nao-desde-testes-covid-lidas-fotografia-momento-1978928?ref=autarquicas-2021&cx=stack), and polling companies directors are going to the TV air waves to defend polling.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 28, 2021, 05:53:09 AM
Now, maps:



(the link has a good map of how the country voted)

Also, I'm making a parish election results map. Will post it when it's ready. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 28, 2021, 12:19:11 PM
Costa rejects calls for a government reshuffle, in the aftermath of the local elections results:


Quote
Local elections 2021: António Costa guarantees that “there's no government reshuffle” in the making

PM Costa is rejecting calls to make a big reshuffle of his cabinet in the aftermath of the local elections results. With the media saying that the results are a "warning" and a "yellow card" to Costa, there is some pressure for a reshuffle, but the PM is saying no. After exiting the last meeting of the Covid-19 vaccine taskforce, Costa said that no reshuffle was in the making because of the election results, and that the country doesn't need a political crisis. These remarks from the PM come on the same day that other media outlets report that a reshuffle is indeed being prepared, behind the scenes, (https://eco.sapo.pt/2021/09/28/choque-eleitoral-forca-remodelacao-medina-pode-entrar-no-governo/) and that Costa could give Fernando Medina, the defeated mayor of Lisbon, a cabinet post.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on September 28, 2021, 02:53:42 PM
I have noticed another thing about the CDU - it seems that they often do better at the autárquicas in the Setúbal district than in Beja district, while in parliamentary elections they consistently do noticeably better (and the absolute best of course) in Beja. Why is that? It's a small difference but I feel it can't be random.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 28, 2021, 06:02:48 PM
I have noticed another thing about the CDU - it seems that they often do better at the autárquicas in the Setúbal district than in Beja district, while in parliamentary elections they consistently do noticeably better (and the absolute best of course) in Beja. Why is that? It's a small difference but I feel it can't be random.

Setúbal in the general elections has a lot of tactical voting of CDU "autárquicas" voters in the PS, in order to defeat the PSD. In Beja, is the same thing, while the PSD does better in general elections at the expense of CDU, a bit, IMO. The Setúbal peninsula was , and still is, a very industrial area thus having a lot of unions workers that made the Communists popular there, and locally that presence continued although is being erased election after election. The same happened in general elections until the the early 90's, coinciding with the fall of the Berlin wall and the USSR, and since 1995, that Communist vote in Setúbal district started to vote tactically in the PS in the general elections. It remained in the local elections, but, like I said above, is being erased election after election, and it becoming faster since the CDU is supporting "on and off" the PS in government. This is my opinion. But, it's a curious and interesting voting pattern.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 28, 2021, 06:38:19 PM
Also, I'm making a parish election results map. Will post it when it's ready. :)

Here it is. The Parish Assembly map (Continental Portugal only; Madeira and Azores not shown)

()
Image link (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/14362_28_09_21_6_31_37.png)

In Continental Portugal, the PS won 1,186 parishes; PSD 1,095; Independents 403; CDU 112; CDS 35; Livre 17; NC 3; MPT 1 and PPM 1.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 29, 2021, 05:12:39 AM
Tension in cabinet? Infrastructure minister, Pedro Nuno Santos, criticizes his Finance college, João Leão, because of the resignation of the CEO of Trains of Portugal (CP) company:


Quote
About CP. Minister of Infrastructure criticizes Minister of Finance

The surprise announcement, yesterday, that the Trains of Portugal (CP), the State owned railway company, CEO, Nuno Freitas, was resigning from the post before the end of his term is creating a blame match between ministers in the government. Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister, trashed the Finance minister, João Leão, and blamed him for the resignation of "the best CEO in the history of CP", accusing Mr Leão of not giving funds to CP and not approving the debt restructuring plans, adding that if it was up to him "all would be resolved". This "war" comes up just days before the presentation of the 2022 budget draft.

Not related but also, the "polling fiasco" continues to dominate a bit the post-election discussion, and Correio da Manhã newspaper asked Intercampus polling company to undertake a full review of their polling methods (https://www.cmjornal.pt/tv-media/detalhe/20210928-2336-correio-da-manha-pede-analise-as-sondagens-das-autarquicas?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias1) in order to see if corrections are needed, and avoid distrust about polling in Portugal.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 29, 2021, 02:36:05 PM
Small crisis brewing between Costa and Marcelo: President Marcelo disallowed Costa's Defense minister regarding the possible resignation of the Chief of the Naval Staff (CEMA).


Quote
Crisis. Marcelo only learned of the Defense Minister's meeting with CEMA "after it happened"

There's a crisis brewing between PM Costa and President Marcelo because of the possible change of the Chief of the Naval Staff (CEMA). Earlier this week, when Costa was thanking Vice-Admiral Gouveia e Melo for his leadership in the Covid vaccine programme, news broke that the government decided to dismiss the current Chief of the Naval Staff, Mendes Calado, and place Gouveia e Melo in that post. The problem is that any changes in the army have to have the obligatoty approval of the President of the Republic, which didn't happened in this case as Marcelo was totally unaware of this move. Today, President Marcelo publicly disallowed Costa's defense minister, Gomes Cravinho, and said that no changes will happen regarding the post of Chief of the Naval Staff, for the moment, and said he was sorry that Gouveia e Melo's name was involved in this.

PM Costa has already asked for an urgent meeting with the President, in which he also asked that the Defense minister to be present, to explain the whole situation.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 30, 2021, 10:26:29 AM
A bit of comic relief: One of the most shared moments on social media, during election night, was an interview to a PS supporter who didn't understand what was happening and claimed that everything could be "sabotage": (All of this from CMTV, of course ;) )


Quote
Woman: To the origin of this, I... there is no explanation. There's something there that didn't go well. Everything was so controlled, a marvelous campaign, the Prime Minister on one side.. and he and us all also with him, always with lots of people... and in the end, up, up... it starts to lose, and Medalhas, the... Medalhas... rising..
Reporter: Yes... Mr Moedas...
Woman: Yes, Moedas, I'm sorry. This isn't normal... I think it's something very unusual. I would even say, I don't know, if I believe in sabotage, I do.
Reporter: Ok Madam, thank you.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 30, 2021, 10:56:03 AM
DA office says that all CHEGA acts since September 2020 are illegal due to irregularities and has sent the case to the Constitutional Court:

The Court just release a ruling on this and they've ruled that all of CHEGA's political decisions since September 2020 are indeed illegal and the party has to hold another congress to resolve the matter:


Quote
Constitutional Court confirms DA office: Political decisions by CHEGA since the Évora Congress are illegal

The Constitutional Court has declared illegal all of CHEGA's political decisions, elected party leaders, mandates and so on. The Court sides with the the DA office, where during this month, said that the calling of CHEGA's last congress was full of irregularities that would make all of the party's decision, after the congress, illegal. Ventura is now forced to call a snap party congress to resolve the matter.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Josecardoso17 on September 30, 2021, 12:21:36 PM
about the polling being wrong in this election i think it was very predictable....
The polling that was made questioned like 1000 people maximum
The polling companies didnt even question a lot of people in Lisbon.

None the less, the result in Lisbon was suprising ,and i know from a lot of people in the Juntos Somos Coimbra coalition that they expected a close result but not a 11% win!!

Looks like Rui Rio stuns everyone as always xD


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on September 30, 2021, 02:04:51 PM
about the polling being wrong in this election i think it was very predictable....
The polling that was made questioned like 1000 people maximum
The polling companies didnt even question a lot of people in Lisbon.

None the less, the result in Lisbon was suprising ,and i know from a lot of people in the Juntos Somos Coimbra coalition that they expected a close result but not a 11% win!!

Looks like Rui Rio stuns everyone as always xD

The issue with local election polling, IMO, is that pollsters don't meassure turnout, which in FPTP cases has a really big impact. And Lisbon is an example of that: pollsters were picking parish samples without predicting turnout, which is difficult I assume, but in Lisbon there's a historical pattern as more rightwing parishes have higher turnout than leftwing parishes. At the end of the day, turnout fell in parishes more aligned with the Left, and stabilized and even rose in parishes closer to the Right. There is also the view that the PS lead was so comfortable, that leftwing voters didn't showed up as it was a forgone conclusion and weren't that motivated to give their support. But, in my view, the turnout problem is something, that in big cities especially, pollsters can't get it right.

What I found more surprising about the Coimbra result, along side with the unexpected big gap between PSD and PS, was the complete failure of the Cidadãos por Coimbra coalition (CpC). Polling was giving them around 11% of the votes, well above CDU, and an almost guaranteed election of a councillor. Maybe there was tactical voting from CpC voters in the PSD coalition in order to defeat the PS, but I'm only guessing.

Yeah, when everybody was ready for his political funeral, Rio once again rose from the dead. He will definitely run for another term as PSD leader but it's still not a forgone conclusion... this is the PSD we're talking about.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 01, 2021, 05:38:38 AM
CDS leadership: Race for the leadership starts with Nuno Melo pre-announcing his run for the leadership.


Quote
CDS: Melo contests CDS's electoral success and pre-announces his candidacy for leadership

MEP Nuno Melo said that after the 26 September election, CDS is "weak" as he contests the party's leadership claims that the results were success. Mr. Melo, a critic of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, said that the party lost votes and, in the big cities, got less support than CHEGA and IL, adding that the party's many coalitions with the PSD show a "position of weakness", as the party, in some places, should have run alone. He also said that in the next few days, he will announce his decision to run, or not, for the party's leadership.

Indeed, during election night, pundits were scratching their heads because of CDS declaration that the party had a "very good result". Even though CDS hold on to their 6 mayors, the party formed a record number of coalition with the PSD, almost 140 out of 308 races, which pundits say masks the weakness the party is right now.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 01, 2021, 12:31:01 PM
Overall results by party:

(Several parties contested the elections in coalitions. These coalition results are added in the leading party for each coalition)

Nationwide:
()
Image link. (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/14362_01_10_21_12_04_43.png)

Lisbon city:
()
Image link. (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/14362_01_10_21_12_16_13.png)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Josecardoso17 on October 01, 2021, 01:37:28 PM
PSD got suprising wins in Alentejo this time.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 01, 2021, 02:06:50 PM
PSD got suprising wins in Alentejo this time.

It's one of the most intriguing results, alongside others of course, in the elections: the surprising surge of the PSD in Alentejo. 19% in Évora city, 18% in Beja city, 4 cities in Évora district, and they failed a 5th by just 400 votes, in Vendas Novas. They also won 6 towns in Portalegre and are now tied with the PS in that district. CHEGA is a factor in the Alentejo, although bellow expectations, but they didn't hurt the PSD, on the contrary.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 02, 2021, 06:43:08 AM
Leadership contests on the rightwing:

- CHEGA will hold another leadership election (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/ventura-anuncia-demissao-da-presidencia-do-chega-para-convocar-novas-eleicoes-em-que-se-recandidatara_n1352899), the 3rd in just one year, because of the Constitutional Court ruling that invalidated every single decision made by CHEGA since the party's congress in September 2020. Ventura has resigned and will run again for the leadership;

- CDS is also already in a leadership dispute. Party leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos has announced his intention to run, and will likely face a challenge by MEP Nuno Melo (https://www.publico.pt/2021/10/02/politica/noticia/cds-guerra-nuno-melo-rodrigues-santos-vao-disputar-lideranca-1979612). The party is also having other internal problems as one of their MPs, Ana Rita Bessa, resigned this week claiming that the party is "dwarfing" (https://observador.pt/especiais/ana-rita-bessa-o-cds-esta-a-apoucar-se-a-ficar-mais-reduzido/), but her replacement is being complicated as, for the moment, the next two people in line rejected being the new MP, which is creating tension in the party;

- The PSD is quiet. After the surprising results last Sunday, the party which faced an imminent leadership battle, became calm and silent. Rio's main opponents are silent with the media saying they are probably waiting for the party's National Council meeting, in two weeks, to make a final stance. It seems clear the MEP Paulo Rangel will run, possibly with the support of Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, Rio's challengers in 2020 (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/montenegro-fica-de-fora-e-apoia-paulo-rangel-na-candidatura-a-lideranca-do-psd?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias2), but regarding Rio, some say he will run while others, even within his team, have doubts he will run again;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 02, 2021, 01:12:14 PM
Leadership contests on the rightwing:

- CHEGA will hold another leadership election (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/ventura-anuncia-demissao-da-presidencia-do-chega-para-convocar-novas-eleicoes-em-que-se-recandidatara_n1352899), the 3rd in just one year, because of the Constitutional Court ruling that invalidated every single decision made by CHEGA since the party's congress in September 2020. Ventura has resigned and will run again for the leadership;

I don't suppose many bets are being taken regarding the outcome of that one?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 02, 2021, 06:42:56 PM
Leadership contests on the rightwing:

- CHEGA will hold another leadership election (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/ventura-anuncia-demissao-da-presidencia-do-chega-para-convocar-novas-eleicoes-em-que-se-recandidatara_n1352899), the 3rd in just one year, because of the Constitutional Court ruling that invalidated every single decision made by CHEGA since the party's congress in September 2020. Ventura has resigned and will run again for the leadership;

I don't suppose many bets are being taken regarding the outcome of that one?

He's going to win, of course. The party is basically himself. However, this time it seems he will face a challenger: Carlos Natal will be a candidate for CHEGA leadership. (https://observador.pt/2021/10/02/ex-candidato-autarquico-do-chega-concorre-contra-ventura-a-lideranca-do-partido/)

Quote
(...)This election will have, however, a novelty: this time, Ventura will have competition, in this case from a former municipal candidate of his own party.

Carlos Natal made news in June because of disagreements with the local and national structures of the party that led to his being removed from his candidacy for the Portimão city council. Now he is back to try his luck in new elections, this time to challenge Ventura for the party leadership.

In his “manifesto”, Carlos Natal presents himself as a businessman and founding activist of the party. And he also presents his reasons for running, which are above all critical of the current management and sums it up as follows: “Mumbles, uncertainties, lack of leadership, letting go, not intervening and allowing situations to get out of hand, are the day to day of the party”.

To these problems that expose the “lack of organization, far worse than that of other parties” of Chega, he adds another: the “authoritarian tics” within the party. And he points out reasons: "The exponential growth, uncontrolled, in some cases, and not very rigorous, was a protest for blockade and discipline measures that have nothing democratic, many of them autocratic and with plenty of authoritarian tics, designed by the new party members, many of them coming directly from other political forces, highly infected with political and partisan vices (…)”, he criticizes.
(...)

We'll see how this unfolds.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 03, 2021, 06:49:29 AM
- The PSD is quiet. After the surprising results last Sunday, the party which faced an imminent leadership battle, became calm and silent. Rio's main opponents are silent with the media saying they are probably waiting for the party's National Council meeting, in two weeks, to make a final stance. It seems clear the MEP Paulo Rangel will run, possibly with the support of Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, Rio's challengers in 2020 (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/montenegro-fica-de-fora-e-apoia-paulo-rangel-na-candidatura-a-lideranca-do-psd?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias2), but regarding Rio, some say he will run while others, even within his team, have doubts he will run again;

In the PSD, Luís Montenegro made it official: he will not run for the leadership. (https://observador.pt/2021/10/03/montenegro-parece-me-natural-que-haja-pelo-menos-duas-candidaturas-a-lideranca-do-psd/) In an interview to TSF radio, the former PSD leadership candidate in 2020, said that he's not planning to run again but will support an alternative candidacy against Rui Rio. He adds that despite the good results of the party in the local elections, Mr Rio is no alternative to the PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 04, 2021, 10:04:38 AM
- The PSD is quiet. After the surprising results last Sunday, the party which faced an imminent leadership battle, became calm and silent. Rio's main opponents are silent with the media saying they are probably waiting for the party's National Council meeting, in two weeks, to make a final stance. It seems clear the MEP Paulo Rangel will run, possibly with the support of Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, Rio's challengers in 2020 (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/montenegro-fica-de-fora-e-apoia-paulo-rangel-na-candidatura-a-lideranca-do-psd?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias2), but regarding Rio, some say he will run while others, even within his team, have doubts he will run again;

In the PSD, Luís Montenegro made it official: he will not run for the leadership. (https://observador.pt/2021/10/03/montenegro-parece-me-natural-que-haja-pelo-menos-duas-candidaturas-a-lideranca-do-psd/) In an interview to TSF radio, the former PSD leadership candidate in 2020, said that he's not planning to run again but will support an alternative candidacy against Rui Rio. He adds that despite the good results of the party in the local elections, Mr Rio is no alternative to the PS.

I assume that whatever his opponents (or his team!) say publicly, the surprising results of last week were a huge boost for Rui Rio and made his position much more solid, right? Although even with that I'd still rather be Paulo Rangel than - to pick a totally random name - Carlos Natal. Low bar I know... lol.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 04, 2021, 10:32:44 AM
- The PSD is quiet. After the surprising results last Sunday, the party which faced an imminent leadership battle, became calm and silent. Rio's main opponents are silent with the media saying they are probably waiting for the party's National Council meeting, in two weeks, to make a final stance. It seems clear the MEP Paulo Rangel will run, possibly with the support of Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, Rio's challengers in 2020 (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/montenegro-fica-de-fora-e-apoia-paulo-rangel-na-candidatura-a-lideranca-do-psd?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias2), but regarding Rio, some say he will run while others, even within his team, have doubts he will run again;

In the PSD, Luís Montenegro made it official: he will not run for the leadership. (https://observador.pt/2021/10/03/montenegro-parece-me-natural-que-haja-pelo-menos-duas-candidaturas-a-lideranca-do-psd/) In an interview to TSF radio, the former PSD leadership candidate in 2020, said that he's not planning to run again but will support an alternative candidacy against Rui Rio. He adds that despite the good results of the party in the local elections, Mr Rio is no alternative to the PS.

I assume that whatever his opponents (or his team!) say publicly, the surprising results of last week were a huge boost for Rui Rio and made his position much more solid, right? Although even with that I'd still rather be Paulo Rangel than - to pick a totally random name - Carlos Natal. Low bar I know... lol.

Rio's position in the party in stronger now, and that's the problem for him. It could sound strange but, because no one in the party expected the gains across the country, plus the upset in Lisbon, adding that his opposition was even betting on that same "disaster", the surprising results are making basically half of the PSD feel, rightly or wrongly, that something has changed in the "air", and that Rio is an obstacle right now. I remember someone, on election night, I think it was on RTP, don't recall very well, but I remember them saying this: "There are two main losers tonight, the PS and half of the PSD". We'll see what happens, Rio is a bit like Costa, as both are a bit "survivors" in their own way. The PSD is a very tricky party, and even though Rio is stronger now, the strongest in his almost 4 year term as leader, the party may not forgive his indecisive and weak opposition, and elect Rangel. Not to mention the media, which has a very complicated relation with Rio. It will be an interesting race to follow and it could be influenced by the mood of the polls or how the government manages the budget situation, plus other "issues" that rise up almost every week.

About CHEGA, like the saying goes "what is born crooked, rarely straightens", this whole leadership stuff is ridiculous and shows how badly the party runs, plus how chaotic and divided it is.  


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 05, 2021, 11:46:41 AM
2021 local election results: Close races.

It's a holiday today here in Portugal, so I've been seeing more clearly the election results and found 30 really close races, out of 308, in which the margin between the two most voted parties was 3% or bellow that. The PS won 17 races with a margin bellow 3%; PSD won 8; Independents won 3 and CDU just 2:

Subtitles: (from lowest % margin to highest)
Municipality - Vote Margin - % share margin - lead over party

PS wins:
Entroncamento - 62 votes; 0.74% lead over PSD
Tavira - 123 votes; 1.02% lead over PSD
Lajes das Flores - 18 votes; 1.18% lead over PSD/CDS
Vila do Bispo - 33 votes; 1.26% lead over Independent
Moura - 94 votes; 1.34% lead over CDU
Sabrosa - 25 votes; 1.54% lead over Independent
Póvoa de Lanhoso - 245 votes; 1.58% lead over PSD
Aljustrel - 89 votes; 1.63% lead over CDU
Montijo - 350 votes; 1.75% lead over PSD/CDS
Resende - 143 votes; 1.92% lead over PSD
Estremoz - 142 votes; 2.13% lead over Independent
Loures - 2,021 votes; 2.47% lead over CDU
Espinho - 438 votes; 2.66% lead over PSD
Castanheira da Pêra - 50 votes; 2.67% lead over PSD/CDS
Aljezur - 78 votes; 2.87% lead over Independent
Belmonte - 106 votes; 2.91% lead over PSD
Bombarral - 186 votes; 2.94% lead over PSD

PSD wins:
Lisbon - 2,294 votes; 0.95% lead over PS/Livre
Alvaiázere - 45 votes; 1.16% lead over PS
Lamego - 198 votes; 1.29% lead over PS
Sardoal - 34 votes; 1.47% lead over PS
Tondela - 244 votes; 1.54% lead over PS
Ponte da Barca - 154 votes; 1.85% lead over PS
Figueira Castelo Rodrigo - 88 votes; 2.22% lead over PS
Mogadouro - 165 votes; 2.39% lead over PS

Independent wins:   
Ílhavo - 300 votes; 1.83% lead over PSD
Figueira da Foz - 619 votes; 2.00% lead over PS
Guarda - 601 votes; 2.54% lead over PSD

CDU wins:
Évora - 273 votes; 1.17% lead over PS
Grândola - 174 votes; 2.64% lead over PS

I think I got them all. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 07, 2021, 09:16:08 AM
Leadership elections, on the rightwing, have some schedule dates:

- CHEGA will hold leadership elections on November 6th (https://observador.pt/2021/10/07/chega-elege-presidente-a-6-e-reune-congresso-entre-26-e-28-de-novembro/), and a party congress between 26 and 28 November;

- CDS will hold a leadership congress in the weekend of 27 and 28 November (https://observador.pt/2021/10/07/chega-elege-presidente-a-6-e-reune-congresso-entre-26-e-28-de-novembro/), basically at the same time as CHEGA. It will be a match between incumbent Francisco Rodrigo dos Santos and MEP Nuno Melo;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 08, 2021, 09:36:47 AM
Tension in CDS: "Chicão's" opposition accuses him of running over party rules.


Quote
Internal opposition criticizes CDS leadership for rushing National Council

Several CDS members are criticizing Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, for calling a party congress in very short notice, plus the calling of a party national council meeting for next Sunday. They accuse "Chicão" of running over party rules for rushing for a congress, which hurts internal democracy and, they say, it's only common in parties CDS "doesn't revise". They add that leadership candidates need time to talk and discuss ideas with local party structures and members. The internal opposition against "Chicão" is expected to rally behind MEP Nuno Melo, which will present his run tomorrow, Saturday.

(To be honest, in a race between Chicão and Nuno Melo, like we say here, "let the devil come and choose". IMO.)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 08, 2021, 10:49:28 AM
Tense moment, yesterday, in Parliament between Costa and the PSD:




One of Rio's deputies, André Coelho Lima, accused Costa of trying to "vitiate" the elections and of "disrespecting democracy" with the use of the European Recovery Plan as a campaign weapon for the Socialists. Costa became furious and lashed out against the PSD MP, accusing him, and the PSD, of being "inept" and of being ignorant about the plan itself.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 08, 2021, 12:45:15 PM
2021 local elections: Parish in Vila Nova de Fôz Coa, Guarda, to have a new elections after two consecutive ties. (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1847751/sera-a-terceira-esta-freguesia-vai-novamente-a-votos-apos-dois-empates)

A tiny parish in Vila Nova de Fôz Coa, Guarda, Touça parish, is going through a complicated electoral situation. In the elections of 26 September, the PS and PSD tied with 75 votes each. Like a few parishes across the country, a rerun was conducted a week later, on 3 October. The problem? There was another tie: 72-72. Because the law does not foresee another rerun of the 26 September elections, a completely new election will have to be called for the next few months. The PS and PSD have already announced that they will run the same candidates.

Touça has a population of 188 inhabitants (2021 Census), and is controlled by the PSD since 2005.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 08, 2021, 06:20:37 PM
2021 local elections: Another tie, this time confirmed by the Courts in Pernes parish, Santarém.  (https://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/santarem/santarem/tribunal-constitucional-confirma-empate-eleitoral-na-freguesia-de-pernes-14201687.html)

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the election in Pernes parish, Santarém municipality, was a tie and a rerun has to be held. The counting in this parish was controversial as PS and PSD, both with 345 votes, challenged some invalid ballots that would give the victory to either side. The Court rejected the extra vote the counting committee gave the PSD, but also rejected the PS complaint to count 2 invalid ballots in their favour. On last 26 September, both PS and PSD got 345 votes, CDU got 159 and 28 were blank or invalid.

A rerun could be called for next weekend, 17 October, but this is still to be confirmed. Pernes is a parish in Santarém municipality with a population of 1,245 (2021 Census), and is controlled by the PS since 2013.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 09, 2021, 01:42:46 PM
2022 budget: Tension in cabinet as several ministers "gang up" against Finance Minister João Leão budget plans.


Quote
OE2022. João Leão contested in PS

The 2022 budget draft was approved in a marathon Council of Ministers meeting, that lasted almost 24 hours. But, several media outlets are reporting tensions within cabinet because of Finance minister João Leão budget cuts and plans. Within the PS there are also attacks and criticisms to the minister, one of them came out publicly from Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister, last week. Plus, the flip flop in the wage increases for public employees, from nothing to a 0.9% increase in just 4 days, was badly received by unions and cabinet members. At the same time, meetings with PCP and BE are a bit stuck, but the PS is hoping that long negotiations with the PCP will save the budget. Talks with the BE are also open, but there is a lot of suspicion between PS and BE, currently.

Also, today, former PM and President Cavaco Silva (PSD) wrote an op-ed on Expresso newspaper trashing both the PS and PSD:


Quote
Cavaco Siva asks for "change"

In his opinion piece, Cavaco Silva accuses the PS of "impoverishing" the country, and of imposing a climate where people are afraid of speaking against the government. He also trashed the opposition, his own party, the PSD, accusing them of being "weak" and with no path or alternative to the country. The article seems to be a direct attack to Rui Rio's leadership as the PSD will enter a leadership race in the next few months. Cavaco made a similar attack towards Rio after the 2019 elections, saying the 28% the PSD got in the election "made him saddened" by the state of the party. Nonetheless, Rio was reelected as party leader in January 2020.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2021, 06:31:20 AM
2021 local elections: Reruns in two parishes.

Polls open in a Águeda parish, Trofa, Segadães e Lamas, after the vote was postponed because of ballot errors on 26 September.


Quote
Ballot boxes open at Trofa, Segadães and Lamas

The parish of Trofa, Segadães e Lamas, Águeda (Aveiro district) is voting this weekend after errors in the ballots forced the postponement of the vote for 2 weeks. Voters in these parish will vote for all 3 local government branches, but the victory of the PSD candidate for Águeda mayor is not in play as his margin is big enough to not put him in danger. For the parish assembly, there are 4 parties running: CDS, PS, PSD and CDU. Trofa, Segadães e Lamas has a population of 4,486 inhabitants (2021 census), and is controlled by CDS since 2017.

Plus, in Guimarães, voters of Sande Vila Nova e Sande S. Clemente parish are also casting ballots, again, after the results of the 26 September election ended in a tie between PS and PSD.


Quote
Local elections 2021: Rerun of elections in Sande Vila Nova and Sande S. Clemente

Both parties got exactly 893 votes each. There are 3 parties in the ballot: PS, PSD/CDS and CDU. This parish has a population of 3,307 inhabitants (2021 census), and is controlled by the PS since 2013.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2021, 08:17:33 AM
2021 local elections: Reruns in two parishes.

There's another rerun in a parish in Guarda, Vela Parish (https://terrasdabeira.gmpress.pt/repeticao-de-eleicoes-hoje-na-freguesia-da-vela-guarda/). Here, on 26 September, the Independent movement "For Guarda" (PSD dissidents), tied with the PS with each getting 103 votes. PSD got 45 votes and BE just 12. Vela parish has a population of 424 inhabitants, and is controlled by an Independent since 2005.

Regarding turnout rates, in the Águeda parish, until 12pm, 30% had already cast a ballot. No data from the Guimarães and Guarda parishes. Polls close at 8pm.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 10, 2021, 05:14:31 PM
2021 local elections: Reruns in two parishes.
There's another rerun in a parish in Guarda, Vela Parish.

Election rerun results:

Sande Vila Nova e Sande S. Clemente parish (Guimarães) (https://www.autarquicas2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/territorio-nacional?local=LOCAL-030887&election=AF): PSD/CDS gain from PS.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

53.0% PSD/CDS (+17.0)
43.7% PS (-10.7)
   1.9% CDU (-2.2)
   1.4% Blank/Invalid (-4.1)

Trofa, Segadães e Lamas do Vouga parish (Águeda) (https://www.autarquicas2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/territorio-nacional?local=LOCAL-010126&election=AF): CDS hold.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

61.5% CDS (+21.5)
15.4% PSD/MPT (+1.8 )
14.6% PS (-0.9)
   4.2% CDU (+0.9)
   4.4% Blank/Invalid (-0.4)

Vela parish (Guarda) (https://www.autarquicas2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/territorio-nacional?local=LOCAL-090748&election=AF): PS gain from Independent.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

55.2% PS (new)
40.6% Independent (-29.7)
   2.3% PSD (new)
   0.4% BE (new)
   1.5% Blank/Invalid (-28.2)

Comenda parish (Gavião, Portalegre) (https://www.autarquicas2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/territorio-nacional?local=LOCAL-120903&election=AF): CDU gain from PS.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

50.0% CDU (+9.5)
44.9% PS (-5.2)
  4.2% PSD (-3.0)
  0.8% Blank/Invalid (-1.4)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 11, 2021, 10:36:32 AM
Trainwreck CDS National Council meeting: Strong accusations between leadership and opposition.


Quote
Rodrigues dos Santos and Melo exchange accusations: the group party against the Church Maná party:

Yesterday's CDS national council meeting was expected to be tense and it was exactly that. CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos and his challenger, MEP Nuno Melo, exchanged several accusation going from the CDS being a "Church Maná" party, to the "offended virgins" across the party. The main points were the state of the party and the date of the party's congress. Regarding the state of the party, Rodrigues dos Santos pressed that the election results on the local elections, 2 weeks ago, were very good for CDS and that the party is growing. However, his opposition trashed his arguments saying that the CDS alone got less than 2% of the votes, and that is becoming a "section" of the PSD, adding that they don't want a merge of CDS with PSD. The date of the congress was also a hot topic of debate, as "Chicão's" opposition didn't want the congress on the same weekend of CHEGA's congress. They added that the party leadership was rushing the party congress and that was unacceptable, however, Rodrigues dos Santos brought papers, from past CDS congresses, where the same people currently against "Chicão" also rushed parties congresses in order to get their way. In the end, 64% of the members in the meeting approved the date for the congress Rodrigues dos Santos wanted.

This Thursday, it's the PSD turn to hold their National Council meeting. The party is currently silent, with both Rio and Rangel waiting to see who "shoots" first.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: VPH on October 11, 2021, 12:49:12 PM
What's the best place to find super old election results down to the Fregusia level? The old CNE site stopped working for me.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 11, 2021, 12:55:55 PM
What's the best place to find super old election results down to the Fregusia level? The old CNE site stopped working for me.

Yeah, the CNE website is obsolete. They need a complete update, but they don't budget so, alas. But, the Interior ministry website has election results by parish. However, they are in Excel sheets, and can be complicated to read:

https://www.sg.mai.gov.pt/AdministracaoEleitoral/EleicoesReferendos/AssembleiaRepublica/Paginas/default.aspx?FirstOpen=1


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 12, 2021, 06:01:36 AM
2022 budget presented by the Government:


Quote
State Budget 2022. The Essentials.

The 2022 budget was delivered to Parliament yesterday evening and presented by the Finance minister this morning. Overall, the main points of the budget are the following:

- GDP growth of 5.5% in 2022;
- Deficit of 3.2% and Public Debt at 122.8% of GDP;
- Unemployment at 6.5%;
- Creation of two new IRS rates, thus totalizing 9 overall, that will cost 375 million euros and benefit 1,5 million families;
- Creation of a Tax Incentive for Recovery to stimulate investments in businesses, and corporate tax deductions for businesses that invest more than 5 million euros;
- Wage increase for Public employees of 0.9%;
- Increase of 10 euros for pensions bellow 658 euros after August 2022;
- Increase of the minimum wage to around 700 euros;
- More 700 million euros in spending for the NHS, totalizing a budget of 13.8 billion for 2022;
- 8.5% increase in spending for the Education system, totalizing a budget of 7.8 billion for 2022;
- Overall public spending to reach 105.8 billion euros in 2022 (the highest ever);
- Taxes on alcohol and tobacco to increase 1%. Taxes on cars also increase 1% and creation of a "Netflix tax" of 4 euros per subscriber. No change in fuel taxes;
- Injection of 990 million euros in TAP airlines;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 12, 2021, 01:15:21 PM
2022 budget reactions: No one is happy.

In the last few hours, parties, business leaders, unions, pundits all say that the budget presented by the government is "little", and the leftwing parties are threatening to vote against if the government doesn't negotiate and accept some of their demands:

- PCP is threatening to vote against, but is willing to negotiate with the government. (https://observador.pt/liveblogs/oe-2022-governo-entrega-esta-segunda-feira-proposta-na-assembleia-da-republica/) The bad PCP results in elections since 2016, at the same time the party started supporting the PS budgets, are starting to have a big toll on the party;

- BE says that in its current form, they would vote against the budget. BE leader, Catarina Martins, says the budget is a "disappointment" (https://tvi24.iol.pt/videos/politica/bloco-de-esquerda-recebeu-oe2022-como-balde-de-agua-fria-e-enorme-desilusao/6165aae50cf246344ebfcb9a) and a "cold shower". The party wants concessions from the government in order to abstain;

- Parties on the right, PSD, CDS, IL and CHEGA said they are worried by the government's fiscal plans and lack of strategy. (https://www.jn.pt/economia/psd-mantem-preocupacao-com-o-orcamento-e-anunciara-sentido-de-voto-oportunamente-14211179.html) IL has already said they will vote against, CDS and PSD are also leaning that way, but will only announce, officially, their vote later;

- Business leaders are also disappointed in the budget (https://eco.sapo.pt/2021/10/12/oe-fica-aquem-das-expectativas-da-cip-patroes-queriam-mais-estimulos-para-as-empresas/), saying it will not be a friendly budget to businesses, and that it could be a lost opportunity. Workers Unions are also disappointed in the budget, with UGT, union close to the PS, calling the budget "unambitious" (https://expresso.pt/orcamento-estado-2022/2021-10-12-OE2022-UGT-considera-proposta-do-Governo-pouco-ambiciosa-640a0c40), and CGTP, union close to the PCP, saying the budget doesn't respond to the needs of workers;

- The media is also not talking in a very positive about the budget. From a "more of the same" budget (https://www.publico.pt/2021/10/12/economia/editorial/orcamento-1980701), like the Público newspaper op-ed says, to a budget that doesn't think about the future (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/orcamento-de-estado/2021-10-12-E-assim-que-se-vive-neste-pais-ninguem-pensa-no-futuro-eeef9113), in SIC Notícias view. ECO newspaper calls it "the budget of community funds" that will create an even more "nationalized economy" (https://eco.sapo.pt/opiniao/o-orcamento-dos-fundos-comunitarios/), very dependent on the State;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 12, 2021, 05:40:51 PM
2021 local elections aftermath update:

- Fernando Medina (PS), the defeated mayor of Lisbon, has resigned from his seat as councillor (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-10-12-Medina-renuncia-a-cargo-de-vereador-para-facilitar-a-vida-a-Moedas-e-o-PS-nao-ficar-agarrado-ao-passado-04721af9) in order to "facilitate" the work of the new administration and help the PS not to be tied to the past. He informed his decision to Lisbon Municipal Assembly by written letter;

- Two election reruns are expected for next Sunday, 17 October: The Parish of Pernes (Santarém) will hold a rerun (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/autarquicas-eleicao-para-assembleia-de-freguesia-de-pernes-repete-se-domingo) after the PS and the PSD had the exact same number of votes. The PS is the incumbent in this parish; Also, the parish of Cristelo (Paredes, Porto district) will hod a rerun (https://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/porto/paredes/freguesia-de-cristelo-volta-a-eleicoes-para-desfazer-empate--14202485.html) after another tie between PS and PSD/CDS. In here, the PSD is the incumbent;

- And finally, a weird story from Barcelos: In the parish of Silveiros e Rio Corvo, the new parish administration was sworn in in a... mortuary (https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/749164/tomada-de-posse-em-casa-mortuaria-revolta-autarca-eleito-). The venue was picked by the defeated administration, an Independent, because the building was new, but the choice is being mocked and the new administration, led by the PS, was horrified and tried to change the venue at the last minute but with no success. This situation is already being mocked nationwide;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on October 13, 2021, 09:18:40 AM
Ventura was with the leader of Cox and meloni recently possibility on chega joining the ecr?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 13, 2021, 10:06:37 AM
Ventura was with the leader of Cox and meloni recently possibility on chega joining the ecr?

Yeah, he was in that rally in Spain. Curiously, that wasn't reported in any news outlet here in Portugal. Literally no one cared. I only found out about it because social media was full of videos mocking him for literally butchering the Spanish language and for hailing Spain 3 times. xD

Well, CHEGA is currently in the same European party as Le Pen and Salvini's parties are, the ID. CHEGA went to that party because he was closer to Le Pen and Salvini. She even campaign with him in the Presidential elections, last January, and Salvini was even present in one of CHEGA's party congresses during the last year. CHEGA and Vox were actually quite distant and their relation was tense, but, for some unknown reason, CHEGA is now close to Vox and Abascal was even in the party's last rally before the local elections, 2 weeks ago. Maybe the fact that Salvini is falling, as is Le Pen, is the reason Ventura is now becoming closer to both Vox and FdI. Who knows. And I wouldn't rule out, or be surprised, Ventura changing CHEGA's European affiliation to ECR, if that benefits him. He is not a very constant politician.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 13, 2021, 06:26:00 PM
2022 budget draft: The scenario of a political crisis and a snap general election is back in discussion.


Quote
Marcelo warns: rejection of the budget would "very likely" lead to elections

The scenario of a snap general election is back in the headlines after the hardline stance of PCP and BE to the proposed government budget for 2022. Since 2019, the mood is always tense during this period, but the leftwing parties would normally decide to abstain. This started to change last year when BE voted against the budget, and this year the tension is higher because PCP is pressuring the government to make changes or they will also reject the budget. The Communists are being hammered election after election because of their support for the PS government, and last 26 September elections were a wake up call for them: start being tough with the PS or risk facing the same fate as other Communist Parties in Europe. Because of this tension, President Marcelo is already warning that a rejection of the budget would lead to snap elections and the country's life would be suspended for 6 months. Therefore, he's warning parties on the leftwing to think carefully. BE, according to the media, is suspicious of the Communist's tactic and believes this is all bluff and that they're are just trying to gain space to force concessions from the PS.

On the right, the scenario of a possible political crisis is being used by PSD leader Rui Rio to, first, put the blame of a possible crisis on Costa and the leftwing parties and second, "trap" his internal opposition with the argument that during a political crisis the party cannot be having a leadership challenge and must be united to face the Socialists in a possible snap election. The PSD will meet tomorrow evening to discuss the leadership election.

IMO, there will no crisis or snap elections. The major parties are weakened in their own way: PS is still shocked by some losses in the local elections and is showing confusion and nervousness in government affairs; BE and CDU are very shaken by their weak results; the PSD, despite their surprisingly good results, is also divided on what to do because of the ongoing leadership race and their doubts about Rio; CDS is also in a leadership race and a very deep one where the survival of the party is at stake; IL and CHEGA would probably be the only ones who don't have nothing to lose. This, in the end, could all be just "dramatization". We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 15, 2021, 05:32:12 AM
Rui Rio defeated in the PSD national council meeting. Leadership elections to be held on 4 December, but Rio is now pondering if he has ground to run:


Quote
PSD Rangel wins first round and advances. Result limits Rio

PSD leader Rui Rio suffered a considerable defeat in the PSD national council meeting yesterday evening. The meeting was held to discuss the leadership race and the ongoing political crisis because of the budget. On Wednesday, Rio advised PSD councillors to postpone the elections because of the possibility of the government collapsing and a snap election be held. He said that the party needs to be united against the PS and the leadership elections should only be discussed after the budget vote in late November. Rio proposed the postponement but it was trashed by his opposition, calling the move "desperate", "cowardly" and proof that he's "stapled" in his office. The mood in the meeting was tense and Rio lost his gamble by more then 60%, and party councillors approved December 4th as election day to select the leader. MEP Paulo Rangel announced his candidacy during the meeting and trashed Rio's leadership and refuted claims he was being disloyal, Rangel was a Rio ally in the past, and that he "campaign against the party" during the local elections.

As the meeting ended, the media reported that PSD members looked quite grim, knowing that their vote against Rio, many of them elected in Rio's lists, may have damaged Rio's leadership for good. Speaking to reporters, Rio said that he was saddened and worried about the party's decision and said, contrary to what Rangel also said, that the PSD is now in the "hands" of the leftwing calendar of negotiations and tensions and that it may not end well for the party. Rio added that this defeat is a data he didn't had and is now pondering if he has enough ground to run again for leadership. He will make a decision in the next few days.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 15, 2021, 12:12:55 PM
Update on the ongoing "political crisis":

- President Marcelo is meeting parties, today, to discuss the budget and how things may play out;
- PSD announced they will vote against the budget;
- BE and PCP continue to press for changes in the budget or no deal. BE wants a written agreement with the Government;
- PM Costa wants to "stop the drama". In a visit to a school in Almeirim (Santarém), Costa asked to stop the current drama, to put focus on the essential and move the country forward;
- PSD MEP Paulo Rangel officially announced his candidacy to the PSD leadership, this afternoon, in a press conference;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 15, 2021, 12:57:12 PM
Big U-turn from the government: Fuel taxes will be reduced after weeks of denial from the government, although just temporarily.


Quote
Fuels: Government lowers ISP of gasoline by two cents and diesel by one

Facing big pressure because of the big rise of fuel costs for consumers, gasoline 98 is already at 2 euros per liter and the most consumed, gasoline 95, is nearing 1.9 euros per liter, the government decided to reduce the fuel tax by 2 cents until 31 January 2022. This is a big u-turn from the government as they have spent weeks saying that taxes could not be reduced (https://observador.pt/2021/10/11/siza-vieira-descarta-descida-de-impostos-sobre-os-combustiveis/) and that people would have to get used to pay more for fuel. Several protests were being schedule against the rising fuel prices and the government's inaction.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 15, 2021, 05:50:23 PM
PSD leadership: Paulo Rangel officially announces his run, as there are more rumours that Rio may dropout.


Quote
Paulo Rangel says he has "all the conditions" to win the 2023 general elections

After yesterday's PSD meeting, MEP Paulo Rangel has officially announced his run for the PSD leadership. In a press conference, Mr Rangel says he wants to unite the PSD and accused Rui Rio of fomenting of "factions and tribes" within the party. He said he's ready to face António Costa in the 2023 elections, if they happen then, and said he's ready to propose a "galvanizing alternative" to attract voters to the PSD. If elected leader, he announced he will resign his seat in the European Parliament.

At the same time, there's more rumours that incumbent leader, Rui Rio, will not run again. The surprise defeat in the party's national council, yesterday, shocked Rio and left him wondering if he has enough support even in his own base, as the majority of councillors in that party structure are Rio appointees. Many media outlets are reporting that Rio's own team is more convinced he will not run, but only Rio, which is a very closed person, knows. A decision is expected in the next few days.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 16, 2021, 08:28:40 AM
So... new autumn, new long drama in negotiations and triangulations with the Left on the budget I see. Now I'm sure the situation is different now that Marcelo is in his second term and I reckon the tension is even higher, but I have a déja-vu to when I was following this thread in October 2020.

Also... Rui Rio may not even run for the leadership again?? Huh, his position was quite weaker than I assumed. The PSD is such a strange party.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: VPH on October 16, 2021, 09:09:46 AM
So... new autumn, new long drama in negotiations and triangulations with the Left on the budget I see. Now I'm sure the situation is different now that Marcelo is in his second term and I reckon the tension is even higher, but I have a déja-vu to when I was following this thread in October 2020.

Also... Rui Rio may not even run for the leadership again?? Huh, his position was quite weaker than I assumed. The PSD is such a strange party.

Rio is definitely on the left flank of the PSD. If his party wants to stem some of the bleeding to IL and CHEGA (for different reasons) it might be smart to move past him.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 16, 2021, 10:05:55 AM
So... new autumn, new long drama in negotiations and triangulations with the Left on the budget I see. Now I'm sure the situation is different now that Marcelo is in his second term and I reckon the tension is even higher, but I have a déja-vu to when I was following this thread in October 2020.

Also... Rui Rio may not even run for the leadership again?? Huh, his position was quite weaker than I assumed. The PSD is such a strange party.

Rio is definitely on the left flank of the PSD. If his party wants to stem some of the bleeding to IL and CHEGA (for different reasons) it might be smart to move past him.

Yeah, the situation is a bit déja-vu, but the main players are in different positions now: Marcelo is in his second term and, of course, there's the long tradition in Presidential second terms of Presidents benefiting their political side; the PS, PCP and BE are weaker after the local elections, and the PSD feels more confident now than a year ago. However, no one knows how this will end. The leftwing parties are really "stretching the rope" to see how far it goes without breaking, as the electoral consequences for them are becoming a burden, mainly for the Communists. And the PS knows they are now trapped between the budget restrictions and the demands of the leftwing parties, plus, the prospect of a snap general election isn't, also, in the PS best interests as it's very difficult for them to increase their 2019 share and we would end up in the same government obstruction, just like what happened to Trudeau. So, we're in a position that is similar to the past, but the players are now pressing more and more which could have a different outcome than what we've been costumed to. We'll see.

Regarding the PSD, like I said in a few post before, the PSD isn't forgiving Rio's indecisive leadership in the last few years, and the local election results are being seen by the party like "if we can gain with him, just imagine without him". That's why the PSD is rebelling against Rio, the party feels stronger but doesn't want Rio anymore. It's a bit like what happened in the PS in 2014, in the Seguro vs Costa feud. António José Seguro was leader of the PS between 2011-2014, and he was able to put the PS back in a stronger position against the PSD, but he was still seen as unelectable and Costa challenged his leadership and became party leader, and later PM. Like Seguro, Rio was never loved by his party and always faced big internal blockades, and that's why it's unclear if he will run again, but, I don't know, knowing Rio maybe he will not go down without a fight.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 16, 2021, 12:04:15 PM
CHEGA candidate for the local elections detained for attempted murder against a Swedish family in the Alentejo region:


Quote
Shot against Swedish family in Moura "out of racial hatred"

A CHEGA candidate for the 26 September local election, in a parish in Moura, Beja, was arrested by police for attempted murder against a Swedish family. According to the police, the man fired several shots against a Swedish family with 7 children last 8 October following a discussion between the man and the family determined by racial hatred. The police added that the man chased the car the family was in and then tried to hide evidence by hiding or throwing away his gun. The man in question was present to a judge but wasn't sent to jail.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: VPH on October 16, 2021, 09:55:31 PM
Interestingly that's the same place Ventura just got elected municipally, right? Yikes.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 17, 2021, 07:13:07 AM
Interestingly that's the same place Ventura just got elected municipally, right? Yikes.

Yep, he got elected as an Assembly member but failed his goal to be elected as Assembly President, he polled 3rd with 25% of the votes, behind the 35% of the PS and the 33% of CDU.

It seems that the candidate, Vítor Ramalho, which was elected as a parish assembly member in Póvoa de São Miguel, Moura, made xenophobic comments (https://www.jn.pt/justica/autarca-do-chega-disparou-cacadeira-contra-familia-estrangeira-por-odio-racial--14228282.html?target=conteudo_fechado) to a man originated from Kurdistan but with Swedish nationality. The reasons of the discussion, and subsequent shooting, seem to have been about a parking spot, lol. Ventura has already reacted saying that "nothing moves us against minorities" and that no one can act on behalf of CHEGA and persue violent tactics.

Regarding the local elections, there are at least two reruns of parish elections today: One is Pernes parish, Santarém (PS incumbent), and in Cristelo, Paredes, Porto (PSD/CDS incumbent). Polls close at 8pm.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 17, 2021, 05:23:59 PM
Regarding the local elections, there are at least two reruns of parish elections today: One is Pernes parish, Santarém (PS incumbent), and in Cristelo, Paredes, Porto (PSD/CDS incumbent). Polls close at 8pm.

Election rerun results:

Cristelo parish (Paredes) (https://www.autarquicas2021.mai.gov.pt/resultados/territorio-nacional?local=LOCAL-131009&election=AF): PS gain from PSD/CDS.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

49.1% PS (+13.5)
48.9% PSD/CDS (-7.9)
   0.8% CDU (-1.2)
   1.1% Blank/Invalid (-2.4)

Pernes parish (Santarém) (https://www.rederegional.com/politica/33495-ps-ganha-repeticao-das-eleicoes-em-pernes-por-7-votos): PS hold.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

43.2% PS (+5.3)
42.5% PSD (+5.6)
12.4% CDU (-10.3)
   1.9% Blank/Invalid (-0.7)

In Pernes, the PS got 7 more votes than the PSD, out of 923 ballots cast, while in Cristelo, just 3 votes separated PS and PSD, out of 1,225 ballots cast. Really close results.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 18, 2021, 01:57:35 PM
Local elections: Carlos Moedas takes the oath of office as Lisbon mayor, the first PSD mayor in 14 years.


Quote
Currencies promises to transform Lisbon into the “city of compassion that takes care of those in need”

Carlos Moedas took the oath of office as Lisbon mayor this afternoon, the first center-right mayor in 14 years in Lisbon city. In front of an audience, which the media noticed, full of PSD and center-right leaders and former leaders, Mr Moedas proposed turning Lisbon into a "fiscally friendly" city by pursuing a progressive and regular tax reduction, adding he wants more resources for ordinary Lisboners and that he trusts them and also announced his intention to give free public transport for young and old people. He said he will pursue an audit regarding the issues of housing and urban planning, some Lisbon urban plans are being investigated by the DA office, and announced he will redraft the bike paths plans, which were topic of controversy during the campaign with Moedas wanting to eliminate some bike paths. He also announced a Health plan for inhabitants above 65 years old that don't have a family doctor and also described his intention of building "a green and sustainable city" "made with people, not imposing the transition". Moedas, who will lead a minority cabinet, also said he will be a mayor of consensus and he believes solutions will be achieved.

Alongside Moedas, several other mayors are being sworn in and some curiouse coalitions are being forged:

- In Porto city, Rui Moreira and the PSD forged a deal to run the city (https://www.jn.pt/local/noticias/porto/porto/rui-moreira-e-psd-chegam-a-acordo-na-camara-do-porto-14217773.html). The PSD will not have representation in Moreira's cabinet but will support him. In exchange, Rui Moreira will support the PSD candidate for the Municipal Assembly Chair. During the campaign, PSD and Rui Moreira were bitter enemies;

- In Coimbra, the new mayor, José Manuel Silva (PSD), forged a deal with CDU in order to have a majority in the municipal assembly (https://www.publico.pt/2021/10/18/local/noticia/cdu-assume-pelouro-camara-coimbra-presidida-jose-manuel-silva-1981553). The sole CDU councillor will also be part of Manuel Silva's cabinet;

- In Montijo city, (Setúbal), where the PS narrowly hold it, the PSD/CDS and CDU forged a deal to remove the incumbent PS (https://osetubalense.com/ultimas/2021/10/15/geringonca-da-assembleia-municipal-do-montijo-ao-psd/?) Municipal Assembly chair and elect a new one from the PSD;

- In Seixal, CHEGA supported the election of a CDU Parish Assembly Chair (https://observador.pt/2021/10/18/chega-votou-a-favor-de-duas-listas-da-cdu-no-seixal-e-vai-ajudar-a-viabilizar-com-abstencao-presidencia-da-assembleia-municipal/), in Amora parish, and abstained in the Municipal Assembly thus ensuring the election of a CDU Municipal Assembly Chair. This is creating some tensions within the party;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 18, 2021, 06:04:07 PM
2022 budget crisis: BE sends the Government a list of demands as the Government signals openness to BE.


Quote
The nine proposals that BE will send to the Government

The budget crisis continues with both BE and PCP pressing the government. While PCP is continuing to be very persistent in their attack to the budget and demanding more concessions from the government, Costa is signaling a openness to BE. The PM asked BE to sent their list of demands and arranged a meeting with them this Tuesday. BE accepted, sent the list but is still skeptical regarding the government's will. The list of demands, 9 in total, is the following:

- Exclusiveness for Integrated Responsibility Centers (CRI) employees, organization that helps run the NHS;
- Creation of the career of Auxiliary Health Technician;
- End of expiry of collective labor contracts. Collective hirings conventions expire in 2023 and the government is willing to expand it to 2024. BE refuses;
- Reinstatement of the principle of the most favorable treatment of the worker, abolished in 2011 during the troika years;
- Overtime pay reinstatement;
- Return to 25 days of vacation, currently 22 day since 2012, also during the troika;
- More severance pay , from the current 12 days to 20 days;
- On Social Security (SS), end of penalties for early retirement;
- Also in SS, recalculation of pensions awarded between 2014 and 2018;

The Social Security issues could be a problem as the government isn't quite open to discuss that. We'll see how the meeting tomorrow play out.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 19, 2021, 05:26:47 AM
CHEGA candidate for the local elections detained for attempted murder against a Swedish family in the Alentejo region:

Update on this story: The CHEGA member who attacked the Swedish family has resigned from his post (https://observador.pt/2021/10/19/eleito-do-chega-suspeito-de-disparar-contra-familia-sueca-em-moura-renuncia-ao-mandato/) in the parish of Póvoa de São Miguel, Moura, Beja district, where he was elected 3 weeks ago. CHEGA seems to have forced his resignation after a meeting with him.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 19, 2021, 09:10:22 AM
PSD leadership: Rui Rio will run for another term.


Quote
Rui Rio announces he is a candidate for the leadership of the PSD

After weeks of doubts, rumours and internal disputes, Rui Rio has announced he will run for the PSD leadership. He will run for a 3rd term and in a press release sent by his campaign manager, Salvador Malheiro, he says that after enough reflection about the state of the country, the results of the local elections and the "incomprehensible " internal division in the party, he decided to run again. Rio is expected to publically announce his run in a date yet to be announced.

He will face MEP Paulo Rangel, a former ally of his, in a leadership election on December 4th.

*Also, changed the title removing the local election date and adding the PSD leadership race date.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 19, 2021, 12:46:02 PM
2022 budget crisis: BE sends the Government a list of demands as the Government signals openness to BE.

Few progress in the Government-BE meeting, but a new meeting was schedule for this week but the date is still to be decided:


Quote
“There is no agreement”. Costa's meeting with the Bloc ends without white smoke. But with a new meeting planned

The Government-BE meeting to find some agreement on the 2022 budget ended with few or no progress. The BE says that there is no deal, but a new meeting is planned for also this week with a date yet to be announced. According to BE, the government showed little openness for the majority of their proposals and only regarding the NHS, did Costa's team showed some openness, but still a very shy one, according to the party leader, Catarina Martins. BE is now waiting for the new meeting.

So far, no progress in the negotiations. The budget debate will be next week with a vote schedule for 27 October.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 20, 2021, 12:34:23 PM
2022 budget crisis: BE sends the Government a list of demands as the Government signals openness to BE.

Few progress in the Government-BE meeting, but a new meeting was schedule for this week but the date is still to be decided:

PCP, PEV and PAN meeting with few progress also, but with again some openness from the Government:

- PCP continues very critical regarding the draft budget and gives one week for the government to compromise in measures (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-10-20-PCP-da-uma-semana-ao-Governo-e-diz-que-anuncio-de-intencoes-serve-de-pouco-be59c918), adding that just intentions are not enough. They admit some openness from the governmet but that the PS is still resisting to many of the Communists proposals;

- PEV, PCP's satellite party, has given some proposals to the government (https://www.dinheirovivo.pt/economia/nacional/oe2022-pev-entregou-conjunto-de-propostas-e-vai-aguardar-resposta-do-governo-14239771.html) and are now waiting for the feedback. A new meeting will be held in the next few days;

- PAN came out of their meeting with Costa a bit disappointed as they said that there is no deal (https://www.publico.pt/2021/10/20/politica/noticia/pan-volta-sair-reuniao-costa-acordo-aproximacoes-insuficientes-1981820), but just like BE, PCP and PEV, the government showed some openness but that they are still insufficient;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Josecardoso17 on October 21, 2021, 06:02:34 PM
The thing i find funny is that no polling as been released after the autarquicas...
But i think that the decisions from the  BE and PCP are because they have some internal data that shows a change in political climate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 21, 2021, 06:08:49 PM
2022 budget crisis: Cabinet approves reforms in the Labour sector and the NHS in order to convince the leftwing parties.


Quote
Work and employment: Costa nods left with increased severance pay to 24 days a year

Costa's cabinet approved a series of measures and reforms for the Labour sector, NHS and Culture in order to convince the BE and PCP to pass the budget. The measures in the Labour sector focus on the increase of severance pay to 24 days a year, from the current 12 days, increase in payment for extra working hours plus other measures to fight precarious working situations, like the State cutting business links with companies with precarious workers. On the Culture sector, the cabinet approved the "Statute of Cultural Professionals" which, according to the government, will help protect Culture sector jobs. On the NHS, the government approved a reform that would create a "CEO" and a management team to manage the Heath service, similar to the UK's NHS. Also, doctors with managent posts in the NHS will be barred from working in the private sector and there will be a process of starting to hire doctors who exclusively work in the NHS, and not in the private sector also.

However, these measures aren't convincing BE and PCP (https://www.publico.pt/2021/10/21/politica/noticia/medidas-governo-trabalho-saude-nao-satisfazem-pcp-bloco-1982040), and there is already accusations from the PS that the leftwing parties want to bring down the government asking them if they are interested in having the rightwing governing the country. Therefore, the situation is still tense and during the weekend several meetings will be held between Costa, Catarina Martins and Jerónimo de Sousa to see how to end the stalemate or acknowledging that there is no deal and that the budget is doomed. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 21, 2021, 06:20:22 PM
The thing i find funny is that no polling as been released after the autarquicas...
But i think that the decisions from the  BE and PCP are because they have some internal data that shows a change in political climate.


Well, quoting Tom Brokaw, polling companies currently have omelets in their suits after the local elections fiasco in Lisbon, plus the failure to predict or sensing big swings in other big cities. Maybe Intercampus will have a poll on Monday, we'll see.

All parties could have internal polling of course, but this is also tactical in my opinion: PCP is collapsing and needs to stop their decline, if going against the PS is the right answer, well, to be honest, they are trapped; BE doesn't trust the PS, and the PS doesn't trust BE and that's that. My hunch, is that a snap election will repeat the current stalemate and that's why the PS doesn't want elections, but, who knows, you may be right... the series of government blunders plus the local election results could be forcing a change in voting intentions.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 22, 2021, 01:50:35 PM
PSD leadership: Rui Rio publicly announces his candidacy saying it would be very bad if the PSD changed its leader.


Quote
Rio: “I am a candidate for the party mandate that allows me to defeat António Costa

Rui Rio, PSD leader, has publicly announced his candidacy for a 3rd term as PSD leader. In a packed room in a Porto city hotel, Mr Rio said that, today, the PSD is in a much better position to defeat the PS in the next general elections. He highlighted the results in the local elections, mainly the rise of support in urban centers, especially in Lisbon, as reasons to run again adding that it would be very bad for the party to change course, saying that the PSD is growing and the PS is falling. However, he attacked his internal opposition for, in his words, putting the PSD in a complicated position if there's a political crisis, next week, due to the budget and labeled it as "an incomprehensible autophagic tendency". The leadership election is in 6 weeks, on December 4th.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 23, 2021, 06:49:29 AM
We now have some proof that the political landscape is changing. Today's Eurosondagem poll, which is the Portuguese equivalent of CIS or Rasmussen, has the PS drooping more than 3 points (https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1451865769164394511). If Eurosondagem is showing these numbers now, then more reliable polling could be even worse for the PS:

Vote share %:

38.1% PS (-3.4)
27.5% PSD (+0.3)
   9.2% CHEGA (+0.3)
   5.6% CDU (+0.1)
   5.5% IL (+0.3)
   5.1% BE (+0.1)
   2.8% PAN (+0.2)
   2.5% CDS (+0.5)
   3.7% Others/Invalid (+1.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 October 2021. Polled 1,028 voters. MoE of 3.06%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 23, 2021, 11:24:54 AM
2022 budget: BE/Costa meeting ends in failure, again, and PCP is still meeting with Costa.


Quote
No approximation: Left Block weighs vote against Budget

PM Costa is holding key meetings this weekend to try to save the 2022 budget. Costa met during the morning with BE, but the meeting ended, once again, in failure and the party is set to vote against the budget, like last year. Currently, Costa is meeting with the Communists to see if a path to approve the budget is possible. In the last few hours, the PM has announced even more policies in order to have the support of the PCP (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/orcamento-antonio-costa-anuncia-promessas-para-fase-da-especialidade_v1357992): minimum wage of 850 euros until 2025; Increase of pensions until 1,097 euros and starting in January 2022; Rise of minimum existence of the IRS meaning that 170,000 taxpayers would be exempt from paying taxes and free kindergartens for every single child until 2025. So far, the PCP is not budging and continues to say that the measures aren't enough.

At the same time, Costa is facing a "war" with business leaders as they left the Social Concertation Council (https://observador.pt/2021/10/22/patroes-abandonam-de-imediato-participacao-na-concertacao-social-por-falta-de-respeito-do-governo-e-pedem-audiencia-com-marcelo/), a council that joins business leaders, unions and the government in order to pass consensual labour laws, accusing Costa of lying and disrespecting them by approving policies that weren't discussed. Costa has already publicly apologized to business leaders, but they are arguing that Costa's apologies are not enough (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/concertacao-social-costa-pediu-desculpa-mas-para-os-patroes-nao-chega) and that actions have consequences. Business leaders have already asked for a meeting with President Marcelo.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 24, 2021, 01:52:23 PM
2022 budget crisis: BE announces vote against while the Government accuses them of "intransigence".


Quote
Catarina Martins announces this Sunday at the end of the meeting of the National Board of the Left Bloc the direction of vote of the Blocists in the OE. PCP Central Committee also meets this Sunday.

The tension between the leftwing and the PS continues as BE announced they will vote against the budget, if nothing changes until Wednesday. The BE continues to say they are open to negotiate but that the government isn't budging and didn't accept any of their proposals. In response, the Government held a snap press conference where they accused BE of being "uncompromising" and that they regret BE's decision. The government laid out to reporters all the concessions the government already gave to the leftwing parties, from labour laws to the NHS and added that if things are like this, everything is much more difficult. The PS is also pressing BE, and also PCP, saying that voting against the budget is "pushing the country into the hands of the rightwing" and that this moment is not the time for blackmails.

PCP is holding a party committee meeting, which is super secret, which will vote on what to do regarding the budget. PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa will announce in a press conference, tomorrow at lunchtime, their decision. PAN will announce their voting intention during the morning. Pundits say the government's press conference sounded like a government who doesn't control the situation and has started the "blame game" regarding a possible colapse of the budget.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2021, 04:50:48 AM
2022 budget update: Crunch time for the government.

The last parties to decide their votes, PCP, PEV, PAN and the Independent MPs, are announcing their votes:

- PAN will abstain, just like last year;
- Independent MPs Joacine Katar Moreira and Cristina Rodrigues will also abstain;

The PCP is the main doubt right now. Some newspapers report that the Communists left the meetings with Costa, this weekend, in silence leaving the government nervous. However, Público newspaper reports that PCP will not announce a final decision today and will postpone any decision until Wednesday, the day of the budget vote. The PCP press conference is at 12:00h. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2021, 06:14:06 AM
JUST IN: PCP will vote against the 2022 budget.

PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa says that if the government doesn't change more policies, the decision is final. He added that no more meetings are so far schedule.

Well, if nothing changes until Wednesday, a snap election could be basically unavoidable. How things changed in just one month.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: crals on October 25, 2021, 06:20:31 AM
Bad news for basically everyone except Chega and IL, I fear.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2021, 06:29:29 AM
Bad news for basically everyone except Chega and IL, I fear.

Yeah, no one gains from a snap election at the moment, except CHEGA and IL: The PS is tired and is still hurt by the local election results plus, this budget negotiations with the government giving everything they had to try to please the leftwing, didn't give a strong picture of the government; the PSD is in an internal battle and I have a hunch that Rio will use this as a way to try to cancel the leadership elections, again, which will raise tensions in the party; BE could be hurt by voting against the budget; PCP is in a lose-lose situation, let it pass and continue their decline or vote against and be punished. PAN is not a factor and CDS is in deep fall.

The situation is a bit similar to 2001/2002, but the PSD is divided about the leadership and President Marcelo wants a strong PSD to face the PS. Again, if nothing changes until Wednesday, Costa could still try to present a new budget and delay things a bit, but Marcelo could refuse it. We are in a completely uncharted territory


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2021, 06:51:21 AM
President Marcelo is now speaking to reporters. He said that he was just given the news, but he will wait until Wednesday and talk to party leaders. But, he pressed that if there's no budget on Wednesday, there will be a dissolution and snap elections.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 25, 2021, 08:38:59 AM
Whoa... this is shocking. I will wait and see until Wednesday - I trust this thread's timely updates - but I cannot imagine exactly how things could change in these two days. It seems that Costa has massively failed at triangulating. When would a snap election be held if it happens? Would it conflict temporally with the PSD's leadership election?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2021, 09:16:06 AM
Whoa... this is shocking. I will wait and see until Wednesday - I trust this thread's timely updates - but I cannot imagine exactly how things could change in these two days. It seems that Costa has massively failed at triangulating. When would a snap election be held if it happens? Would it conflict temporally with the PSD's leadership election?

Making predictions right now regarding Portuguese politics is useless, because you will probably fail. xD Seriously, everything that was expected a month ago turned out exactly the opposite way. You're right by saying that it's very difficult for any side to retract their positions in the next two days, because if they indeed change their minds it would be seen even worse. But, who knows, let's see what happens on Wednesday.

Costa's gamble was clear: have a strong result in the local elections, propose a budget, if BE/PCP threatened to reject it, warn of the risks of them being wiped out and fight for a majority. But, everything happened exactly the opposite way: the PS got a bad result in the local elections as did PCP and BE, and the leftwing parties decided to press the PS, as they were also weak. The PS gave everything they got to the PCP and BE but it was never enough. And the image it gave was of a government dependent on extreme parties and that was alienating the other side, business leaders, moderates, etc. Not a very good picture. If there's an election, Costa could still ask for a majority but, let's be serious, if he didn't got one in 2019, when he was much more popular, he will probably not get one now. And then how can he govern? PCP and BE are demanding too much and this will probably hurt them, but Costa is also in a delicate situation for allowing this to reach this far.

If the budget is rejected on Wednesday, Marcelo will dissolve Parliament and is forced to call an election in 55 days. That means an election somewhere between mid and late January 2022, however, this could be delayed as the President would still have to hear parties, hear the Council of State and then call an election, so this could take a while still. And of course this clashes with the PSD leadership race. Rio has hinted that if there's a snap election, he will ask for another vote in the PSD National Council to postpone the leadership election. He already lost the first vote about two weeks ago, losing another would be disaster for him, and his opponent, Paulo Rangel, doesn't want to postpone the leadership race. And then there's President Marcelo, who wants a strong PSD against the PS, but doesn't want Rio at the helm. Will this influence the call of an election date by the President? No one knows.

The situation is becoming messy...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2021, 10:47:10 AM
PEV, Ecological Green Party (PCP's satelite party) will also vote against. No surprise here.

Also, PM Costa has called an emergency cabinet meeting for this evening. In Parliament, the Labour minister, Ana Paula Godinho, has said the government is still open to negotiate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 26, 2021, 06:31:17 AM
2022 budget: Debate starts this afternoon with the crucial vote tomorrow.


Quote
OE2022: Parliament starts budget debate under threat of political crisis

The 2022 budget debate will start this afternoon in Parliament with parties and the government discussing the draft and the possible political crisis surrounding it. PM Costa speech is very awaited after the PCP announcement of voting against the budget and after the emergency cabinet meeting of late last night. Currently, parties on the left, PS-BE-PCP, are accusing each other of being responsible for the ongoing crisis: the government continues to press that this is the most leftwing budget ever and that BE and PCP are being irresponsible, adding that they are still open for more talks; BE accuses the PS in being interested in snap elections and the budget doesn't resolve any of the country's main problems; PCP is responding to the government attacks by revealing the details of the negotiations with the government and that the PS/Government didn't address any of the Communists main policies.

In the case of a snap election, PS is already refusing any more agreements with the left, while on the right there's still the ongoing division regarding CHEGA.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 26, 2021, 08:49:08 AM
Crisis looming also in the Azores: IL is ready to reject the PSD regional budget because of SATA airlines.


Quote
IL votes against Azores Budget if Government maintains "plan and indebtedness"

If in the mainland there's a political crisis looming, in the Azores another may be forming. The current PSD/CDS/PPM minority government, with the outside support of IL, CHEGA and a CHEGA dissident, has always been shaky and now it seems it could break. The reason seems to be SATA airlines, the Azorean regional airline, and the inclusion of 133 million euros in the regional budget for the capital increase of SATA. IL is demanding a new budget where that would reduce the level of indebtedness to SATA. José Manuel Bolieiro, Azores President, reacted by saying that the regional government and political parties have to assume their responsibilities and that the government is working to present a budget to the regional Parliament.

Snap regional elections could also be inevitable in the Azores during 2022. In the local elections, the PSD gained a lot of ground in the islands, while the PS lost significantly. Could this be a prelude of a snap regional election? I would like to hear Crals opinion. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Josecardoso17 on October 26, 2021, 01:55:34 PM
2022 budget: Debate starts this afternoon with the crucial vote tomorrow.


Quote
OE2022: Parliament starts budget debate under threat of political crisis

The 2022 budget debate will start this afternoon in Parliament with parties and the government discussing the draft and the possible political crisis surrounding it. PM Costa speech is very awaited after the PCP announcement of voting against the budget and after the emergency cabinet meeting of late last night. Currently, parties on the left, PS-BE-PCP, are accusing each other of being responsible for the ongoing crisis: the government continues to press that this is the most leftwing budget ever and that BE and PCP are being irresponsible, adding that they are still open for more talks; BE accuses the PS in being interested in snap elections and the budget doesn't resolve any of the country's main problems; PCP is responding to the government attacks by revealing the details of the negotiations with the government and that the PS/Government didn't address any of the Communists main policies.

In the case of a snap election, PS is already refusing any more agreements with the left, while on the right there's still the ongoing division regarding CHEGA.

The situation looks very strange and there is no way to predict how its gonna goo..
If Ps wins a snap election and the situation stays all the same ,it needs to accept PCP´s and BE´s demands and it will look quite awkward....
But i see some PS´s supporters talking in social media that this action is just giving the next government to the right ,a think i find quite absurd.
I think that only if a major "political earthquake " happens we will have a new goverment in January.
But its still hard to predict how the political players will act


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 26, 2021, 02:29:14 PM
The situation looks very strange and there is no way to predict how its gonna goo..
If Ps wins a snap election and the situation stays all the same ,it needs to accept PCP´s and BE´s demands and it will look quite awkward....
But i see some PS´s supporters talking in social media that this action is just giving the next government to the right ,a think i find quite absurd.
I think that only if a major "political earthquake " happens we will have a new goverment in January.
But its still hard to predict how the political players will act


Like I said in my post yesterday, any prediction anyone makes is gonna fail, probably, but it's almost certain that the budget is going to fall, the first in almost 50 years, historic, and it's too little too late for both BE or PCP to retract their positions without not looking  as a bunch of fools. Yeah, I've also seen on social media, and also talking to some, PS supporters freaking out for no apparent reason. Yes, the rightwing could be benefit a bit but it's very difficult for the PSD to win, in my opinion. But, who knows frankly... all of this is just messy.

Also, curious "visitors" in the Presidential Palace this afternoon. Rio's challenger for the PSD leadership, Paulo Rangel, met with President Marcelo as did the new mayor of Lisbon Carlos Moedas. Rio wants snap elections as quick as possible to deviate from the leadership race, while Rangel wants a later election in order to win the party. Marcelo has said he also wants a quick election. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 26, 2021, 05:47:54 PM
It seems that President Marcelo was even more active than just receiving Paulo Rangel at the Presidential palace:

- Marcelo talked with the President of the Region of Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque, in order for him to let the 3 PSD MPs from Madeira to vote in favour of the budget. PSD leader Rui Rio learned about this on TV and rapidly called Mr Albuquerque who told him that the Madeira MPs will not vote in favour of the budget. Shortly after, Rio told the press that "Madeira isn't for sale". Rio was also clearly upset and stunned when reporters told him about the Marcelo-Rangel meeting:


Quote
Reporter: Did you talk with Mr Rangel about the issue, the President of the Republic?
Rio: That the... the...
Reporter: The issue that Mr Rangel was received by President Marcelo, this afternoon, in Belém.
Rio: The President of the Republic received Mr Paulo Rangel? To deal with?
Reporter: We don't know. It's just a note published by the Presidential Palace

- There's also another plot twist: the leftwing parties, BE, CDU and PAN don't want a snap election but rather for Costa to propose another budget. There's also the idea that the budget could not be put up for a vote but go ahead to the discussion policy by policy until the ultimate final vote on late November;

This whole situation is becoming more and more ridiculous... And turning into a House of Cards episode (with bad quality, of course xD)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 06:17:42 AM
2022 budget: Second day of discussion and vote in Parliament.


Quote
Assembly of the Republic votes on budget proposal this Wednesday, with rejection in sight

Today is the final day of discussion and vote of the 2022 budget draft. Yesterday was an intense day, full with backroom meetings and "back stabbings" that made everything even more confusing. With just a few hours left, no side seems to be budging and the budget rejection seems to be a forgone conclusion. However, there are last minutes pleas:

- PS is asking the PSD to let the budget pass (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/ps-sem-carta-na-manga-se-psd-aprovasse-oe-rio-daria-uma-licao-de-politica-ao-pais-14260907.html). On TSF radio, PS deputy secretary, José Luís Carneiro, said that "it would be a lesson in politics" if the PSD didn't reject the budget, adding that the PS has no cards up their sleeve;

- President Marcelo is being criticized for his movements yesterday and the PSD is very uncomfortable with the whole situation. PSD leader Rui Rio, which was stunned by the events in the Presidential Palace, said this morning that a President receiving a putative candidate for the leadership and discussing the PSD elections is unacceptable and weird (https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/750920/encontro-de-rangel-com-marcelo-e-muito-estranho-diz-rio);


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 09:06:20 AM
More movements in the PSD:

Paulo Rangel has gather enough signatures to call for an emergency PSD National Council meeting to change the date of the party's congress from January 2022 to 18 December 2021. The election day would remain on December 4th. Rui Rio seems to be ok with this, but could still also present a motion to postpone the elections, again.


Quote
Rangel will anticipate the congress and already has enough signatures to call a meeting

The media also reports that if the budget indeed falls, Marcelo is considering calling election to 13 February 2022. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 12:22:24 PM
Costa just asked for a "stable and durable majority" in his speech in Parliament.

The budget vote is about to start.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 12:24:03 PM
THE BUDGET IS REJECTED.

117 Against (PSD, BE, PCP, CDS, PEV, CHEGA and IL)
108 In favour (PS)
    5 Abstention (PAN, IND MPs Joacina Katar Moreira and Cristina Rodrigues)

First time a budget is rejected in democracy. Snap elections now imminent.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 12:52:09 PM
President Marcelo is expected to met with Speaker Ferro Rodrigues and PM António Costa this evening.

The President will also met with party leaders next Saturday, 30 October, and will convene the Council of State for next Wednesday, 3 November.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 01:23:37 PM
Ok this is hilarious....

Reporters were all in front of the Presidential Palace when, all of the sudden, President Marcelo appeared, confusion was installed, a reporter fell to the ground, because of the confusion, and Marcelo calmly helped the reporter and went to a near by... ATM to pay some bills. Classic.




Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: xelas81 on October 27, 2021, 01:56:44 PM
I'm correct to assume that possibility of anyone-but-PS government is zero?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Josecardoso17 on October 27, 2021, 02:08:44 PM
I'm correct to assume that possibility of anyone-but-PS government is zero?

yep


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 02:22:11 PM
I'm correct to assume that possibility of anyone-but-PS government is zero?

yep

It's the most likely outcome, but frankly no one knows. Everything in the last month was completely unexpected, from the local election results, to the budget negotiations and now with the budget vote. Making predictions now is quite risky.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: President Johnson on October 27, 2021, 02:53:02 PM
Uhm, not a good timing for snap elections now that Portugal is slowly coming out of the pandemic and the possibility of rising infections over the cold season. Hopefully Costa can win a functioning majority this time.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 03:02:22 PM
Uhm, not a good timing for snap elections now that Portugal is slowly coming out of the pandemic and the possibility of rising infections over the cold season. Hopefully Costa can win a functioning majority this time.

Like I said in my post above, anything is possible. Of course Costa is also to blame for this ending, and his party just came out from a complicated local elections result, but no one knows what will happen. Everything is still up in the air, and, we need polls, reliable ones specially.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 27, 2021, 03:22:53 PM
And... it has happened. I reckon this is a historic moment. The turns that the whole political situation is taking are quite intriguing and I am sure so many more are to come since a fairly long electoral campaign is inevitably looming on the horizon. I find particularly interesting that Marcelo is being so (unprecedentedly it seems) active - and I'm not talking about being active in paying his bills of course! Anyway, this is obviously not a good outcome but I'll be looking forward to the snap elections as a politics watcher.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Farmlands on October 27, 2021, 03:34:07 PM
Uhm, not a good timing for snap elections now that Portugal is slowly coming out of the pandemic and the possibility of rising infections over the cold season. Hopefully Costa can win a functioning majority this time.

Covid numbers have been consistently low recently and vaccination rates very high, it's unlikely that will be too much of an issue. Of course, the big news here is the budget crisis. It's just surprising that the PS made it work for 4 years with a much smaller range of options, before 2019, but couldn't do it again now.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 05:37:44 PM
And... it has happened. I reckon this is a historic moment. The turns that the whole political situation is taking are quite intriguing and I am sure so many more are to come since a fairly long electoral campaign is inevitably looming on the horizon. I find particularly interesting that Marcelo is being so (unprecedentedly it seems) active - and I'm not talking about being active in paying his bills of course! Anyway, this is obviously not a good outcome but I'll be looking forward to the snap elections as a politics watcher.

Yep, first time in democracy (in almost 50 years) that a budget is rejected. The ongoing PSD leadership dispute will probably have an impact on the election date, as the "weird" meeting between Marcelo and Rangel, plus Rio's reaction, is proof, and is being interpreted as a stab in the back on Rio by the President. Marcelo is also being extremely (to not say ridiculously) active because he also gambled and, sort of, lost. His warnings that if the budget failed there would be an election was a way to put pressure on PS+BE/PCP to reach an agreement, but they didn't listen to the President. We'll see what happens. What a month this has been in Portuguese politics.

Covid numbers have been consistently low recently and vaccination rates very high, it's unlikely that will be too much of an issue. Of course, the big news here is the budget crisis. It's just surprising that the PS made it work for 4 years with a much smaller range of options, before 2019, but couldn't do it again now.

Covid is stable around here, so far, and elderly people are already receiving the 3rd shot plus a flu shot. Problems of NHS shortages and "chaos" are more likely to be an issue, as they already are. Costa's decision of not wanting a deal in 2019 came back to bite him, and the BE/PCP, especially PCP, are bleeding electorally because of their support to the PS minority, so this budget vote was literally a matter of survival for them. But they could also be punished for this.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 27, 2021, 07:04:44 PM
A little bit of history:

This will be the 8th dissolution of Parliament, if an election is indeed called, since 1974.



Of the 7 dissolutions, so far, only one returned an incumbent government: the 1987 PSD landslide victory of Cavaco Silva. All of the rest resulted in a change in the political colour of the government. What will happen this time? (if an election is indeed called, again. I'm all for everything, right now ;) )


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 28, 2021, 06:28:54 AM
Political crisis update:

President Marcelo informed PM Costa and Speaker Ferro Rodrigues that he intends to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election, during their meeting yesterday evening.

So, it's basically a forgone conclusion now. The main doubt is the date. Will Marcelo delay the election because of the PSD leadership? Or call a quick election for early January? We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Conservatopia on October 28, 2021, 06:40:26 AM
Mike I think you've said you're a PSD voter.  How would you vote in the leadership election?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 28, 2021, 08:56:49 AM
Mike I think you've said you're a PSD voter.  How would you vote in the leadership election?

I don't know, to be honest. I'm not a PSD member, just a voter, but I don't know who I would vote. Both have pluses and minuses: Rio should be entitled, in my view, to have another term because he indeed surpassed every expectations in the local elections, however, his weak opposition and sometimes erratic way of deciding policy is tiring and doesn't do any favours to the party. Rangel well, I like him, and he could be a more articulated PSD leader in terms of messaging, but many of his actions in the recent months are a bit disappointing and raise doubts for me. So, I don't know, but under pressure, I would say I would be leaning very, very slightly towards Rio.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 29, 2021, 06:02:16 AM
Political crisis: Parties update.

On the left, BE and PCP are being trashed on social media. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-10-28-Perderam-o-meu-voto-vao-dar-a-mao-ao-bandido-as-criticas-aos-chumbos-do-BE-e-PCP-1d8ae937) The social media pages of BE and PCP are being flooded with criticisms of several leftwing voters because of the parties vote against the budget. Some voters say they will never vote again for them, that they are "selfish", and that they have put a red carpet for the rightwing parties.

But, in the rightwing parties, things aren't better. CDS is in a total war because of the possible postponement of their congress, schedule for late November. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, wants to postpone the congress but his internal opposition is furious and accuses "Chicão" of an attempt coup d'état. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-10-29-Nuno-Melo-acusa-direcao-do-CDS-de-tentativa-de-golpe-de-estado-institucional-mas-aceita-adiamento-do-congresso-com-uma-condicao-1a4bdda1) In the PSD, things are calmer but with an air of rotten peace. Rio is furious with President Marcelo and Rangel and is expected to confront, tomorrow, President Marcelo regarding his audience with Paulo Rangel. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/10/28/politica/noticia/psd-silencio-espera-explicacoes-marcelo-data-legislativas-1982881?ref=psd&cx=page__content) Rio wants the general election to be called to mid January, but fears that Marcelo will side with Rangel and will call an election for February. Indeed, Paulo Rangel has said he wants an election on the 20 or 27 of February.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 29, 2021, 02:12:44 PM
President Marcelo meets with business leaders and Unions who are divided regarding an election:


Quote
CGTP against early legislative elections

President Marcelo started the Presidential audiences to define the election calendar. He received business leaders and union leaders. Business leaders, which also asked a meeting because of their ongoing feud with PM Costa regarding Labour laws, want a stable government from the elections, but didn't propose a specific election date. Union leaders, on the contrary, don't see the need for a snap elections. CGTP, the union close to the PCP, told Marcelo that they don't see the need for an election but that they will respect the President's decision. This position is similar to PCP's, which is accusing Marcelo of being an "agent of instability", and PAN is also accusing President Marcelo of rushing for an election without any reason.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 29, 2021, 04:51:39 PM
But, in the rightwing parties, things aren't better. CDS is in a total war because of the possible postponement of their congress, schedule for late November. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, wants to postpone the congress but his internal opposition is furious and accuses "Chicão" of an attempt coup d'état. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-10-29-Nuno-Melo-acusa-direcao-do-CDS-de-tentativa-de-golpe-de-estado-institucional-mas-aceita-adiamento-do-congresso-com-uma-condicao-1a4bdda1) In the PSD, things are calmer but with an air of rotten peace. Rio is furious with President Marcelo and Rangel and is expected to confront, tomorrow, President Marcelo regarding his audience with Paulo Rangel. (https://www.publico.pt/2021/10/28/politica/noticia/psd-silencio-espera-explicacoes-marcelo-data-legislativas-1982881?ref=psd&cx=page__content) Rio wants the general election to be called to mid January, but fears that Marcelo will side with Rangel and will call an election for February. Indeed, Paulo Rangel has said he wants an election on the 20 or 27 of February.

Night on tension in CDS, with a tense party meeting to discuss a possible postponement of the leadership elections. In the PSD, Rio also defends postponing the PSD leadership election and puts pressure on President Marcelo:


Quote
CDS. Nuno Melo wins one take: Tonight's National Council at risk of not taking place

CDS is living a very tense night. Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, CDS leader, wants to postpone the leadership election in the party and that is being voted and discussed this evening. But, the mood is tense and of outrage in his opposition. Nuno Melo, Rodrigues dos Santos challenger, is accusing "Chicão" of having perverted actions while the party leadership accuses Melo, and his supporters, of terrorism and of having no shame. At the same time, the party's tribunal has sided with Nuno Melo and ruled that any decision made in this Friday evening party meeting will be nullified. This could end in Courts, if it goes on.

In the PSD, Rio is putting pressure on President Marcelo because of the election date.


Quote
Rio pressures Marcelo to prove he's not with Rangel and defends the postponement of the leadership election

In an interview to SIC TV, Rio said that the President needs to stay true to his word that the elections have to be called quickly and in mid January. Any other later data, Rio said, is proof that Marcelo is siding with Paulo Rangel and, Rio added, will confirm his suspicions. Rio also said that he's considering postponing the elections, but he asked PSD members to think carefully about what is happening and that the party cannot enter in a "1908 war sketch", alluding to a popular comedy in the 60's where a war opened at 9am and closed at 4pm, concluding that how can the party win or even ask for a majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: crals on October 30, 2021, 05:36:43 AM
Adolfo Mesquita Nunes has left CDS, saying the party he joined no longer exists. Another nail in the party's coffin.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (PSD leadership election: 4 Dec 2021)
Post by: crals on October 30, 2021, 05:41:18 AM
Crisis looming also in the Azores: IL is ready to reject the PSD regional budget because of SATA airlines.


Quote
IL votes against Azores Budget if Government maintains "plan and indebtedness"

If in the mainland there's a political crisis looming, in the Azores another may be forming. The current PSD/CDS/PPM minority government, with the outside support of IL, CHEGA and a CHEGA dissident, has always been shaky and now it seems it could break. The reason seems to be SATA airlines, the Azorean regional airline, and the inclusion of 133 million euros in the regional budget for the capital increase of SATA. IL is demanding a new budget where that would reduce the level of indebtedness to SATA. José Manuel Bolieiro, Azores President, reacted by saying that the regional government and political parties have to assume their responsibilities and that the government is working to present a budget to the regional Parliament.

Snap regional elections could also be inevitable in the Azores during 2022. In the local elections, the PSD gained a lot of ground in the islands, while the PS lost significantly. Could this be a prelude of a snap regional election? I would like to hear Crals opinion. :)
In case of a snap election I think the government (PSD, CDS, and PPM) has a chance of winning a majority. The population is willing to give them a chance to show what they can do and not enough time has yet passed to clear up the PS fatigue either.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 30, 2021, 05:58:36 AM
Adolfo Mesquita Nunes has left CDS, saying the party he joined no longer exists. Another nail in the party's coffin.

Just read about that. Depending on the PSD leadership result, he might end up in the PSD or in the Liberals, (IL). However, this is just my view, I think that all the "tensions" in CDS and also PSD are a bit ridiculous. Of course with a snap election in sight it's perfectly normal that the parties decide to postpone leadership elections in order to focus on the campaign. The accusations from the oppositions within PSD and CDS are just tiring, IMO.

In case of a snap election I think the government (PSD, CDS, and PPM) has a chance of winning a majority. The population is willing to give them a chance to show what they can do and not enough time has yet passed to clear up the PS fatigue either.

I also had that view, and I believe that I posted a year ago or so, that this term could likely end in a snap election if the PSD performed well in the local elections. Plus, the divisions on CHEGA could benefit the AD-Azores and, like you said, give them a majority. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 30, 2021, 07:08:01 AM
A bit more info in the CDS situation:

Last night, the Party National Council meetings approved the postponement of the leadership congress to a date after the snap general elections. The result was 144 in favour, 101 against and 4 abstentions.

In the aftermath, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes announced he was leaving the party, and Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos challenger, MEP Nuno Melo, has asked President Marcelo to speak against the situation in CDS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: VPH on October 30, 2021, 09:29:15 AM
If the Azores go a snap election, I mainly want to see PPM do better.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 30, 2021, 10:15:23 AM
If the Azores go a snap election, I mainly want to see PPM do better.

PPM will run in a coalition with PSD and CDS, if there is a snap regional election. The 3 parties agreed to run the next regional election in a coalition, the AD-Azores Democratic Alliance, when they signed the government deal a year ago.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 30, 2021, 10:37:18 AM
A bit more info in the CDS situation:

Last night, the Party National Council meetings approved the postponement of the leadership congress to a date after the snap general elections. The result was 144 in favour, 101 against and 4 abstentions.

In the aftermath, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes announced he was leaving the party, and Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos challenger, MEP Nuno Melo, has asked President Marcelo to speak against the situation in CDS.

More exits from CDS in the last few hours:


Quote
Crisis in the CDS: multiple exits and displeasure in the party

It seems that it's not only Adolfo Mesquita Nunes who is leaving the party. Other former CDS MPs and members are announcing on social media their exit from the party. As of now, 3 other former CDS MPs, adding Mesquita Nunes, have left the party and others may follow.

CDS is literally falling apart, and I don't think the postponement of the congress is the main reason. This was expected for quite a while now. A PSD-CDS merger could happen sooner than anyone had expected.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on October 30, 2021, 12:14:12 PM
Oh well. Guess it is time to start writing obituaries for the CDS-PP. Forty-seven years is a good run, after all.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on October 30, 2021, 12:18:36 PM
Will any CDS voters not vote for the merged CDS-PSD?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 30, 2021, 12:31:48 PM

Just commenting that the majority of parliamentary mergers, like cooperate ones, rarely are a net benefit for the two groups. There are always voters who came to the absorbed party because they disliked other groups, including the party benefiting from the merger. There are also absorbing party voters put off by some of the policies or individuals within the absorbed party.

Now sometimes it works out, and sometimes mergers have to occur to save a party from electoral thresholds, but Israel and the Netherlands offer a number of examples of failed mergers.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 30, 2021, 12:32:18 PM
Oh well. Guess it is time to start writing obituaries for the CDS-PP. Forty-seven years is a good run, after all.

The party is really in bad shape. However, looking back, the departure of Paulo Portas from the CDS leadership, in 2016, was probably the beginning of the end of the party. Under Portas, the party became deeply personalized around him, and like him or hate him, I have my doubts about him, he was an extraordinary leader as he was able to conciliate the hopes and positions of Rightwing Populists, Liberals, Social Democrats, Conservatives and Christian Democrats, all in one party. He could be pro EU and anti EU, pro welfare and anti welfare, pro business and more protectionist. For around 18 years, he was able to do this as party leader and his exit left a deep void in the party. The party felt difficulty in competing with the PSD as there were no differences between both, and voters preferred the original, PSD, rather than the copy, CDS. Then, the surge of IL and CHEGA left CDS even more weak as not only was the party competing with PSD but also with IL and CHEGA. Complicated times in the party.


The now cancelled leadership dispute between "Chicão" and Melo was a bit about a possible alliance with the PSD. Many in the party criticize the fact that CDS is becoming just a section of the PSD because of the many coalition it has been forging with them. They want to continue a relationship with the PSD, but also want to retain their "independence" and not be so close to the Social Democrats. But, I don't know, things are so complicated in the party right now, that they could have no choice than to merge. We'll see.

Just commenting that the majority of parliamentary mergers, like cooperate ones, rarely are a net benefit for the two groups. There are always voters who came to the absorbed party because they disliked other groups, including the party benefiting from the merger. There are also absorbing party voters put off by some of the policies or individuals within the absorbed party.

Now sometimes it works out, and sometimes mergers have to occur to save a party from electoral thresholds, but Israel and the Netherlands offer a number of examples of failed mergers.

PSD+CDS coalitions have worked quite well in the past, the only big failure being the 2004 EP elections. Like I wrote above, CDS has been losing voters, that Portas was able to appeal, to other parties like PSD, IL and CHEGA. What's now left in CDS are voters more aligned with the PSD and they seem fine with being close to the PSD as this would ensure safe seats for them in a coalition deal, unlike the danger of going alone and risk being wiped out.

A bit off topic, but the Left Bloc is also a merger of several far-left parties, UDP, PSR, PoliticsXXI, that alone were going nowhere but that together are now quite strong.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 30, 2021, 04:23:02 PM
President Marcelo finished the audiences with the parties represented in Parliament regarding the dissolution of Parliament and the calling of an election. The most proposed date for the elections is 16 January:

IL - 30 January or after;
CHEGA - 16 January;
PEV - Doesn't agree with an election, but prefers 16 January;
PAN - Also doesn't agree with an election, also prefers 16 January;
CDS - 9 or 16 January;
PCP - Again, doesn't agree with an election, but prefers 16 January;
BE - Doesn't agree with an election, prefers 16 January or after;
PSD - 9 or 16 January;
PS - 16 January;

However, the President is not obliged to follow the opinion of parties, and, according to this weekend's media, the President is actually considering 30 January or 6 February as the dates for the snap general election. The President still has to meet with the Council of State, next Wednesday 3 November, and only after that can announce a definitive date.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 30, 2021, 05:31:03 PM
It seems that it's not only Adolfo Mesquita Nunes who is leaving the party. Other former CDS MPs and members are announcing on social media their exit from the party. As of now, 3 other former CDS MPs, adding Mesquita Nunes, have left the party and others may follow.

More high profile CDS members are leaving the party:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-10-30-Acabou.-O-CDS-morreu.-Depois-de-Adolfo-Pires-de-Lima-e-outros-anunciam-saida-do-partido.-Joao-Almeida-deixa-o-Parlamento-d1785c5c)

- António Pires de Lima, former Economy minister (2013-15), announced his departure from the party saying the party is "at the end of the line";

- Michael Seufert, former CDS youth leader, also announced he's leaving the party, and said that "CDS is dead";

- João Almeida, CDS MP and challenger of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos in 2020, announced he's resigning from his seat in Parliament;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on October 31, 2021, 01:53:10 PM
Political crisis update: President Marcelo to announce a decision next Thursday, 4 November.

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, announced, today, that he will speak to nation next Thursday, 4 November, regarding the current political crisis and the calling of snap elections.

At the same time, the PSD also announced that they will hold an urgent National Council meeting next Saturday, 6 November, to discuss the political crisis. The President's decision on the election date will dominate the meeting, of course.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on November 01, 2021, 01:01:46 PM
PSD leadership: Rui Rio sends a letter to party members asking them to "reflect" about postponing the party elections in order to face the PS. Rangel forces accuse Rio of being "adrift".


Quote
PSD: Rio sends a letter to militants asking for the postponement of the direct. Rangel supporter speaks of "disorientation"

The mood in the PSD continues, also, tense. Just days before President Marcelo announces the election date, Rui Rio has now sent a letter to party members in order for them to "reflect" about postponing the leadership elections. In the letter, Rio says he was right about warning the party about a possible crisis, which the party rejected, and now the PSD is in a complicated situation. He continues by saying the party cannot go into an internal battle as the same time the PS is already in campaign mode and that the party needs to be united and focused in defeating the PS. The Paulo Rangel campaign has already accused Rio of being "adrift" and of being "glued" to his post as President.

The party will hold an emergency party meeting next Saturday, which could be tense as the election date will already be known by then.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Josecardoso17 on November 02, 2021, 07:55:40 PM
Mike,I dont know if anyone as already asked you,but who do you think will win the PSD leadership contest?
As a PSD supporter i like Rui Rio more ,but is oposition as been awful,but i hear a lot of PSD people say they don´t like Rangel .
History tell us that in the PSD leadeship contests a lot of suprises happen but in my point of view this time its a Lean Paulo Rangel.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on November 02, 2021, 08:27:17 PM
Mike,I dont know if anyone as already asked you,but who do you think will win the PSD leadership contest?
As a PSD supporter i like Rui Rio more ,but is oposition as been awful,but i hear a lot of PSD people say they don´t like Rangel .
History tell us that in the PSD leadeship contests a lot of suprises happen but in my point of view this time its a Lean Paulo Rangel.

I don't know who's going to win, to be honest. Rangel seems to have the edge on paper, because of his massive support from local party branches, but does this translates to actual votes? I don't know, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the PSD base is pissed with Rangel running now, even if they have strong doubts about Rio's tenure as party leader, and, of course, we also have to wait for the election date announcement as it will have an impact on the leadership election being held or not. Overall, if there's one thing the last month taught us is that what is certain to happen, will most likely not happen. We'll see.

Conservatopia asked me, a few days ago, who I was supporting and I said I was leaning towards Rio, but, frankly, now I'm all in for Rio. Rangel, IMO, has been very disappointing and his recent actions are not very flattering.

One thing I find interesting is how demobilized the party membership is right now: only 25,351 members are registered to vote, members who have paid their party's fees, which is quite low. Members still have 15 days left to pay their fees and the final number will of course be much bigger, but I don't know if it will reach the 40,000 of January 2020. Curious.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on November 03, 2021, 05:57:43 PM
Council of State meeting held this afternoon. Majority of members voted for the dissolution of Parliament:


Quote
Council of State. Only Louçã and Domingos Abrantes were against the dissolution of the AR, Cavaco defended elections at the end of February

The last step until calling snap election was held this afternoon, where President Marcelo presided over the Council of State. In the meeting, the political crisis and the calling of a snap general election was on the table, and a majority of the members voted in favour of the dissolution, but some didn't:

- Francisco Louçã (BE) voted against the calling of a snap election;
- Domingos Abrantes (PCP) also voted against a general election;

Adding also, former President and PM Cavaco Silva (PSD) advised President Marcelo to call an election for late February, the same date as PSD candidate Paulo Rangel proposes. Recently, Cavaco Silva wrote an opinion piece trashing Rio's leadership in the PSD.

President Marcelo will announce the election date in a live broadcast speech tomorrow at 8pm.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on November 03, 2021, 07:11:34 PM
Council of State meeting held this afternoon. Majority of members voted for the dissolution of Parliament:

Adding to this, President Marcelo had a "minor car accident" after the end of the meeting...



Marcelo being... well, Marcelo. ::) (And of course, thank you CMTV ;) )


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on November 04, 2021, 05:53:59 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/o-sentimento-dos-portugueses-em-relacao-a-antecipacao-das-eleicoes--14286105.html)

Q1: Should the President dissolve Parliament and call an election?

59% Yes
25% No
16% Undecided

Q2: Who's the main responsible for the rejection of the 2022 budget?

28% PS
21% BE
18% PCP
11% PSD
  2% Others
20% Undecided

Q3: Should the government resign?

44% No
41% Yes
15% Undecided

Q4: Who do you think will win the elections?

43% PS
29% PSD
  6% Other
22% Undecided

Q5: Will the winner of the elections achieve an absolute majority?

68% No
20% Yes
12% Undecided

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general elections in 2022 imminent)
Post by: Mike88 on November 04, 2021, 10:42:02 AM
Also, today, Parliament will discuss and vote the new Euthanasia bill after the Constitutional Court rejected the first draft:


Quote
Euthanasia returns to Parliament, PS and PSD give freedom to vote again

Parliament will discuss today, and tomorrow vote, on the new Euthanasia legalization bill after the Constitutional Court rejection of the first draft in the beginning of the year. However, the discussion is being controversial because of the ongoing political crisis and imminent dissolution of Parliament. Parties on the right, PSD/CDS/CHEGA, say that this discussion is being hasty and accuse the leftwing parties of forcing the discussion without any reason. Even in the PS the situation is also tense as some don't know if indeed it's the right time to discuss this again. The new bill has been drafted by PS, BE, PAN, PEV and IL. In terms of votes, PS and PSD has given their MPs freedom of vote in the bill vote tomorrow, 5th November.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 04, 2021, 03:09:52 PM
General elections called for 30 January 2022. President Marcelo just announced in a live speech.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 04, 2021, 07:13:33 PM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-intencao-de-voto-e-avaliacao-dos-portugueses-aos-lideres-politicos-14290032.html)

Vote share %:

38.5% PS (+0.9)
24.4% PSD (-0.8 )
   8.8% BE (+1.0)
   7.7% CHEGA (nc)
   4.7% IL (-0.8 )
   4.6% CDU (-0.2)
   2.8% PAN (-1.8 )
   2.0% CDS (+1.1)
   6.5% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Popularity ratings:

Inês Sousa Real: 25% Approve; 25% Disapprove
António Costa: 38% Disapprove; 34% Approve
Cotrim Figueiredo: 27% Disapprove; 20% Approve
Catarina Martins: 43% Disapprove; 22% Approve
Rui Rio: 41% Disapprove; 19% Approve
Rodrigues dos Santos: 37% Disapprove; 12% Approve
Jerónimo de Sousa: 46% Disapprove; 16% Approve
André Ventura: 60% Disapprove; 15% Approve

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 05, 2021, 09:53:50 AM
Parliament votes: New Euthanasia bill approved, and change of the Constitutional Court to Coimbra rejected


Quote
Parliament approves euthanasia again. Bill goes to Belém next week

Parliament has approved the new Euthanasia bill and it will be sent to President Marcelo next week. The new bill, to change some points that led the Constitutional Court to reject the original bill last March, passed with 138 votes, 84 against and 5 abstentions:

138 Yes (97 PS, 13 PSD, BE, PEV, IL, 2 Independents)
   84 No (61 PSD, 7 PS, PCP, CDS, CHEGA)
    5 Abstention (3 PSD, 2 PS)

Parliament also voted in the controversial proposal to transfer the Constitutional Court from Lisbon to Coimbra, proposed by the PSD. After the controversial response of the Court, which said that moving to Coimbra would "discrediting", and then tried to retract their position, the proposal failed to reach the 2/3 majority in order to pass. The vote was the following:

109 Yes (PSD, 5 PS, BE, CDS, IL)
     9 No (5 PS, PAN, CHEGA)
108 Abstention (94 PS, PCP, PEV, 2 Independents)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on November 05, 2021, 11:09:37 AM
Who were the 7 PS members voting against euthanasia? Props to them and to the PCP for holding strong against it.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 05, 2021, 01:35:52 PM
Who were the 7 PS members voting against euthanasia? Props to them and to the PCP for holding strong against it.

Looking at the Parliamentary TV feed, they were:

- Ascenso Simões (Vila Real);
- Pedro Cegonho (Lisbon);
- Joaquim Barreto (Braga);
- Cristina Sousa (Guarda);
- José Luís Carneiro (Porto);
- Maria da Graça Reis (Viseu);
- Romualda Fernandes (Lisbon);


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 05, 2021, 03:20:51 PM
UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/cecilia-meireles-deputada-do-cds-vai-abandonar-a-vida-politica_v1361190)

Vote share %:

39% PS (+1)
30% PSD (+2)
  7% BE (-1)
  5% CDU (nc)
  5% CHEGA (-1)
  5% IL (nc)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% CDS (-1)
  4% Others/Invalid (nc)

Q1: Who do you blame for the budget rejection?

37% PS and Costa
31% BE and CDU
  5% PSD
  4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
23% Undecided

Q2: Will any party gain from the budget rejection?

47% Yes
46% No
  7% Undecided

Q3: If so, which one?

22% PSD
17% CHEGA
12% PS
  8% CDS
  5% IL
  3% BE
  2% CDU
  1% PAN
30% Undecided

Q4: Faced with the budget rejection, what should President Marcelo have done?

53% Allow the government to propose a new budget
42% Dissolve Parliament and call a general election
  5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 October and 4 November 2021. Polled 878 voters. MoE of 3.30%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 05, 2021, 05:19:59 PM
Popularity ratings:

Inês Sousa Real: 25% Approve; 25% Disapprove
António Costa: 38% Disapprove; 34% Approve
Cotrim Figueiredo: 27% Disapprove; 20% Approve
Catarina Martins: 43% Disapprove; 22% Approve
Rui Rio: 41% Disapprove; 19% Approve
Rodrigues dos Santos: 37% Disapprove; 12% Approve
Jerónimo de Sousa: 46% Disapprove; 16% Approve
André Ventura: 60% Disapprove; 15% Approve

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.

Is there any reason why Inês Sousa Real would be the only party leader without a net negative approval rating? Is it just the fact that PAN is a mostly inoffensive new minor party that seems to always be on the sidelines? I find it especially interesting that she is more well-liked than Cotrim Figueiredo, who should have similar advantages (and indeed, to be fair, both got a much better result than any other non-Costa leader).


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 05, 2021, 05:30:57 PM
Popularity ratings:

Inês Sousa Real: 25% Approve; 25% Disapprove
António Costa: 38% Disapprove; 34% Approve
Cotrim Figueiredo: 27% Disapprove; 20% Approve
Catarina Martins: 43% Disapprove; 22% Approve
Rui Rio: 41% Disapprove; 19% Approve
Rodrigues dos Santos: 37% Disapprove; 12% Approve
Jerónimo de Sousa: 46% Disapprove; 16% Approve
André Ventura: 60% Disapprove; 15% Approve

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.

Is there any reason why Inês Sousa Real would be the only party leader without a net negative approval rating? Is it just the fact that PAN is a mostly inoffensive new minor party that seems to always be on the sidelines? I find it especially interesting that she is more well-liked than Cotrim Figueiredo, who should have similar advantages (and indeed, to be fair, both got a much better result than any other non-Costa leader).

I think, yeah, it's because PAN is basically inoffensive, and people just don't know her very well, as just 50% have a positive or negative opinion of her. Cotrim Figueiredo is very disliked by the left, and the right has some issues about him, especially if you are a PSD voter, probably, as they find him "fishy". Also, this seems to be the first poll, in around 5 years or so, that has Costa with a negative rating as party leader.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 05, 2021, 07:17:32 PM
UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper on the PSD leadership:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/sondagem-portugueses-nao-acreditam-que-eleicoes-resultem-em-maioria-estavel_n1361142)

Q: Best leader for the PSD?

All voters, vote share %:

43% Rui Rio
32% Paulo Rangel
25% Others/Undecided

PSD voters, vote share %:

48% Rui Rio
41% Paulo Rangel
11% Others/Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 October and 4 November 2021. Polled 878 voters. MoE of 3.30%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 06, 2021, 11:18:14 AM
PSD leadership: Party will decide today if it will advance the date of the leadership ballot to late or early November.


Quote
PSD National Council meets to approve internal calendar

The PSD is holding, this Saturday, a snap National Council meeting to discuss a possible advance of the leadership ballot. The current date is December 4th, but PSD leader Rui Rio, changed course in the last few days and announced that it would propose advancing the election to mid or late November in order to resolve the issue rapidly. This move surprised many as Rio's tone, for some time now, was that the leadership election should actually be postponed to a date after the general elections. Rangel is open to changing the election date, but doesn't want it too early. Rio is proposing the ballot to be held on 20 November, while Rangel proposes 27 November. The party councillors will decide the date.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 06, 2021, 05:58:24 PM
André Ventura easily wins CHEGA's leadership election:


Quote
André Ventura re-elected president of Chega with 94.78% of the votes

Without any surprises, Ventura was easily re-elected with almost 95% of the votes. His challenger, Carlos Natal, won just 5%. The overall results were the following:

94.8% André Ventura
  5.2% Carlos Natal

20.0% Turnout

Just around 4,000 party members cast a ballot out of around 20,000. The total membership of the party is around 40,000, but only half paid their party fees in time to be registered to vote.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 06, 2021, 06:46:15 PM
PSD leadership: Party will decide today if it will advance the date of the leadership ballot to late or early November.

The PSD voted to advance their leadership election (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/rui-rio-quer-eleicoes-diretas-do-psd-a-20-de-novembro?ref=HP_PrimeirosDestaques) to 27 November, instead of 4 December.

The party's congress, will be held between 17-19 December. It was a long meeting, more than 9 hours, in which there were several back and forwards, negotiations, talks, no deals and, at the end, the vote of 3 proposals: One to postpone the election, proposed by Alberto João Jardim, other to advance the ballot to 20 November and open to all party members, proposed by Rio, and a final one, proposed by Rangel, for an advance of the ballot to 27 November. Only Rangel's proposal was approved. One of the main topics of disagreement between Rio and Rangel, which at a certain point were close to reach an agreement, was Rio's proposal to open the ledership ballot to all PSD members, even those without their party's fees paid. At the end, the PSD tribunal said that this proposal colided with the party's rules.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 07, 2021, 07:01:57 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio on the PSD leadership:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/a-valiacao-dos-portugueses-aos-candidatos-a-lideranca-do-psd-14295742.html)

Q: Best leader for the PSD?

All voters, vote share %:

38% Rui Rio
31% Paulo Rangel
31% Undecided/No opinion

PSD voters, vote share %:

54% Rui Rio
37% Paulo Rangel
  9% Undecided/No opinion

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 08, 2021, 07:12:11 PM
Costa asks for a stable majority and that it wouldn't be dangerous the PS having a absolute majority:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/antonio-costa-pede-maioria-estavel-para-proximo-ciclo-governativo_v1361727)


Quote
Interview with Prime Minister António Costa.

In his first public interview after the fall of his government and the calling of a snap election for 30 January 2022, PM Costa asked for a stable majority on election day, and, without asking for an absolute majority, he said it wouldn't be dangerous if the PS indeed had one, as he would always be open to dialogue. He acknowledged that the "Geringonça" deal is basically over but put also blame on BE and PCP. He added that the BE and PCP should had be open to more discussion, but he admitted that a deal would be very difficult. Regarding the elections, Costa said that if the PS loses, he will resign from the PS leadership in order to open a "new cycle". He also announced that several measures that were in the draft 2022 budget, like the minimun wage increase to 705 euros, increase of in public employees wages by through inflation and update of pensions.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 10, 2021, 12:00:05 PM
PSD leadership: Rui Rio refuses debates with Paulo Rangel and will not campaign against him, but plan the party's campaign for the general elections.


Quote
Rui Rio renounces the internal campaign to focus on the general election

PSD leader Rui Rio announced, yesterday, that he will not campaign for the PSD leadership election or attack his opponent, Paulo Rangel, and will instead plan the PSD campaign for the general election and focus his attacks on Costa and the PS. Mr Rio also said he will not accept debates with Mr Rangel as, according to him, will hurt the party's image in a period very close to the general elections. He added that he feels he's the best to defeat Costa. Paulo Rangel reacted by mocking Rio for finally wainting to be "a real opposition" against Costa, but said that it would be important for PSD members to have a debate.

Pundits are split in their reactions. Some say this is a smart move from Rio, as it puts pressure on Rangel, while others say that Rio is just desperate and wants to "run away" from his party's internal debate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 10, 2021, 01:55:06 PM
PS planning to not make any government deals after the elections:


Quote
PS will not make government deals if they win the elections

After Costa's interview on RTP, where the PM opened the door to deals on both the left and the right, there has been speculation of what's the PS strategy. Today, Público newspaper reports that the Socialists strategy is to not make any deals in order to govern with anyone. They want to negotiate bill by bill, and not persue an overall agreement or deal. The goal is to have bill supported by the left and others supported by the right. A PS leadership member confirmed this info to the newspaper. However, this strategy could collide with President Marcelo. The media has also been reporting that if the elections don't result in a clear winner, the President could force a "deal" between the leftwing parties or between the two main parties, PS and PSD, in order to at least pass budgets.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 12, 2021, 07:28:25 PM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/eleicoes-legislativas/2021-11-13-Sondagem-SIC-Expresso-PS-aumenta-vantagem-e-Chega-e-terceira-forca-politica-9cfb3e8b)

Vote share %:

40% PS (+3)
26% PSD (-3)
10% CHEGA (+4)
   6% CDU (-1)
   5% BE (-4)
   2% PAN (nc)
   2% IL (+1)
   1% CDS (nc)
   2% Others (-2)
  6% Blank/Invalid (+1)
  
Government's job approval:

48% Disapprove (+10)
44% Approve (-11)
  8% Undecided (+1)

Party leaders approval ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

5.4 António Costa (-0.8 )
4.3 Rui Rio (-0.6)
4.0 Catarina Martins (-0.3)
3.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
3.2 Inês Sousa Real (new)
3.1 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (nc)
3.0 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.6 André Ventura (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 21 October and 1 November 2021. Polled 800 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.50%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 13, 2021, 07:02:50 AM
A move back to the PS since the new election was announced, interesting.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 13, 2021, 07:31:47 AM
A move back to the PS since the new election was announced, interesting.

Polling, so far, has indeed shown that the PS isn't losing votes after the budget crisis and the election call, and I believe this has mainly two reasons: an emotional reaction from leftwing voters who are pissed with the BE and CDU, and the current leadership "vacancy" in the PSD. Because, at the same time, it's interesting that Costa and his government have never been this unpopular, as polls also show his ratings and those of his cabinet plummeting.

However, it's still very early as things are still very unstable and there has been a lot of changes, and more could still yet come that could, again, change everything.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on November 13, 2021, 12:54:47 PM
This is why the PS didn't try very hard to reach a budget agreement. At the end of the day left-wing voters, even those who blame the government, prefer to see results than instability, and the rejected budget was already quite generous in some aspects.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 13, 2021, 01:13:32 PM
This is why the PS didn't try very hard to reach a budget agreement. At the end of the day left-wing voters, even those who blame the government, prefer to see results than instability, and the rejected budget was already quite generous in some aspects.

I disagree a bit. I think that the Government gave in on all what they could, but the leftwing parties felt that the PS was also weak, coming out of the local elections, and pressed for more and more. The PS would never concede in matters like Labour laws, for example, as it would alienate the business sector and the relations between bosses and the Government are already very tense. The fact that the PS didn't forged a deal in 2019 also removes a lot of ground for their "victim strategy", and polls already show that voters also blame the PS for this whole crisis.

Of course many leftwing voters are upset with the budget rejection as they are angry and demoralized at the same time, but, in my view, we are still in "reaction phase" and I have big doubts that many BE/CDU 2019 voters will vote PS and what could happen is a pretty big abstention rate in that area. A PS sole budget would be completely different than a PS budget with BE/PCP supporting it, not to mention that Costa is already changing strategy and opening the door to a possible negotiation with the PSD if there's a PS minority after the elections.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 14, 2021, 08:56:52 PM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/infograficos/detalhe/sondagem-intencao-de-voto-agora-e-comparacao-com-os-resultados-de-setembro)

Vote share %:

39.0% PS (+2.2)
28.1% PSD (+3.5)
  7.7% BE (-2.0)
  6.3% CHEGA (-2.3)
  5.3% CDU (-0.2)
  4.4% PAN (+1.1)
  4.2% IL (-1.3)
  2.0% CDS (+0.6)
  0.2% Livre (-0.2)
  2.8% Others/Invalid (-1.4)

Party leaders approval ratings: (in a scale between 1 and 5)

3.2 António Costa (-0.1)
2.8 Rui Rio (nc)
2.8 Inês Sousa Real (-0.1)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.6 Catarina Martins (-0.4)
2.4 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.4)
2.3 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.3)
1.9 André Ventura (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 5 and 11 November 2021. Polled 612 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 15, 2021, 05:38:45 AM
Is the reason that Livre did not "break through" unlike the other two new parties that entered Parliament in 2019 an inability to find its own political lane, internal disorganization, or both? And how much did the immediate expulsion of Joacine Moreira matter in all this?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on November 15, 2021, 06:15:27 AM
Is the reason that Livre did not "break through" unlike the other two new parties that entered Parliament in 2019 an inability to find its own political lane, internal disorganization, or both? And how much did the immediate expulsion of Joacine Moreira matter in all this?
The left-wing camp is pretty crowded, but they found a free lane back in 2019 with minority rights, which Joacine as a disabled black woman embodied very well. Their campaign in 2019 was focused almost exclusively on her and even at the height of the controversy around her the party was polling decently (peaking around 3% iirc). Without her they lost both their USP and whatever publicity they had and are pretty much forgotten about. Perhaps they can find a new lane by campaigning as the constructive party to the left of PS that can be a bridge between them and the far-left.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 15, 2021, 06:27:29 AM
Is the reason that Livre did not "break through" unlike the other two new parties that entered Parliament in 2019 an inability to find its own political lane, internal disorganization, or both? And how much did the immediate expulsion of Joacine Moreira matter in all this?
The left-wing camp is pretty crowded, but they found a free lane back in 2019 with minority rights, which Joacine as a disabled black woman embodied very well. Their campaign in 2019 was focused almost exclusively on her and even at the height of the controversy around her the party was polling decently (peaking around 3% iirc). Without her they lost both their USP and whatever publicity they had and are pretty much forgotten about. Perhaps they can find a new lane by campaigning as the constructive party to the left of PS that can be a bridge between them and the far-left.

Exactly. However, I doubt they have any chance at all. The Joacine affair hurt the party deeply and in 2 years they didn't recover and plunge into oblivion. Plus, Rui Tavares, the party's leader, isn't that popular and lets not forget his trainwreck decision of forming a coalition with the PS in Lisbon, just after the whole "Russiagate" thing, that didn't go down well.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 15, 2021, 02:33:30 PM
Controversy in PAN as leader Inês Sousa Real denies intensive farming practices in companies she has shares:


Quote
Agriculture: PAN leader denies accusations of intensive agriculture in companies of which she is a partner

PAN leader Inês Sousa Real is fighting against accusations that the farming companies where she has shares and owns parts of it, practices intensive farming. She admits having shares in 2 farming companies but denies that these companies conduct activities of intensive farming, like the use of greenhouses and pesticides, which PAN is against. She is accusing those who are defending this claims, of trying to hurt the party, adding that in these companies no greenhouses are used, but rather tunnels, which, she says is different. Asked about the people working in these companies, Ms Sousa Real said that they are national and foreign workers but that they procede with direct hiring to avoid human rights violations. However, agriculture associations are accusing PAN and Ms Sousa Real of hypocrisy, and that if she has any shame should resign as party leader. Inês Sousa Real already responded to the accusation, saying that the head of CAP, the main agriculture association in Portugal, shouldn't be in his post because he clearly doesn't understand nothing about agriculture.

Also, BE MP Mariana Mortágua is suing CHEGA leader André Ventura for spreading fake news about her:


Quote
Mariana Mortágua to sue André Ventura for defamation

BE MP Mariana Mortágua is suing André Ventura, CHEGA leader, because of Ventura's sharing of fake news about her. Mr Ventura shared on social media, several posts of a Spanish commentator, close to Vox, Cristina Seguí, that accuses Mortágua of receiving money from the former BES bank. MP Mariana Mortágua has been a leading figure in the investigation regarding the colapse of BES bank in 2014, and the massive money schemes the bank created during years. Ms Mortágua is also suing Cristina Seguí.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 17, 2021, 06:14:19 AM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the PSD leadership:  (https://observador.pt/2021/11/17/portugueses-dao-preferencia-a-continuidade-de-rio-mas-preferem-nuno-melo-para-o-cds/)

Q: Best leader for the PSD?

All voters, vote share %:

49.3% Rui Rio
34.3% Paulo Rangel
16.3% Undecided/No opinion

Poll conducted between 5 and 11 November 2021. Polled 612 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 17, 2021, 12:28:41 PM
André Ventura tears the Azores agreement because of Rio's rejection of CHEGA in a possible PSD national government:


Quote
CHEGA withdraws support from the Azores Regional Government in retaliation for Rio

CHEGA leader, André Ventura, has teared the PSD-CHEGA agreement in the Azores, after Rio said in an interview that CHEGA isn't a card in the PSD government strategy because of their current positions. In retaliation, Ventura announced this afternoon, that CHEGA will no longer support the PSD minority government in the Azores. This means that the sole CHEGA MP could vote against the regional budget, to be voted next week I believe, and force its rejection. However, it's still unclear how CHEGA-Azores will react as there has been a lot of internal infighting in the party.

If CHEGA indeed votes against the PSD-Azores budget, the islands could also go to a snap regional election, like the country, in a a few months. Stay tune.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 17, 2021, 01:36:15 PM
André Ventura tears the Azores agreement because of Rio's rejection of CHEGA in a possible PSD national government:

However, it's still unclear how CHEGA-Azores will react as there has been a lot of internal infighting in the party.

The sole CHEGA MP in the Azores Parliament, José Pacheco, has reacted to Ventura's decision by saying, to the media, that "all is still premature" and that until Friday he will make a final decision. He added that he will discuss the matter with the regional party and also talk with the President of the Azores government, José Manuel Bolieiro.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 17, 2021, 08:31:20 PM
PSD leadership race update:

With less than 10 days left for the ballot, the campaign has been very low profile but with Rio and Rangel giving a lot of interviews, with "subtle" attacks against each other. At the same time, the deadline to pay party fees ended this Wednesday, 17 November, at midnight (https://www.psd.pt/pt/pagamento-de-quotas-ao-segundo) and 45,512 PSD members will be registered to vote on 27 November. This number shows that around 5,000 more PSD members will be able to vote compared with January 2020. The final number could still increase due to postal payments.


Quote
Fees. Members in Madeira risk deciding duel between Rio and Rangel

Porto has, so far, 7,860 registered members, Braga 6,316, Lisbon Metro 5,952, Aveiro 4,491 and Madeira 2,344. These 5 party districts add up to almost 60% of all members registered and will be crucial in deciding the winner. Overall, 53.7% of the 84,764 active party members are registered to vote, meaning those who paid fees in the last two years. In total, the PSD has almost 160,000 members.

In terms of the campaign, the main topics dividing the candidates are the post election scenarios and the party lists for the general elections:

- Rui Rio is open to talks with the PS after the elections. In several interviews, the current PSD leader has said that his goal is to win and form a coalition/deal with IL and CDS, but if he doesn't achieve a majority, as he rejects CHEGA's support, Rio is willing to talk with the PS. He's also open to talk to the PS if Costa wins again all in the name of stability. (https://www.dn.pt/politica/rio-admite-acordo-parlamentar-com-ps-para-pelo-menos-meia-legislatura-14318430.html) Regarding the party's lists, Rio has opened the process to organize the lists and has decided that it will be the "president-elect" of the party to name the party's head candidates in each district;

- Paulo Rangel is refusing any talks with the PS, pressing that, if he wins, he will pursue talks with IL and CDS, and like Rio, refuses any talks with CHEGA. Rangel says that he's also willing to govern in a minority and that a vote for the PS is a wasted vote in this election. (https://www.dn.pt/politica/rangel-diz-que-voto-no-ps-e-inutil-e-acredita-numa-vitoria--14317395.html) Regarding the lists, Rangel says he's calm and doesn't understand Rio's hurry adding that there's enough time to organize the party's lists. However, Rangel's campaign is suspicious of Rio's tactics; (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/listas-do-psd-as-solucoes-a-bem-e-a-mal-de-rangel)

Both have traded some attacks: Rio says that Rangel isn't ready to be Prime Minister (https://www.dn.pt/politica/rui-rio-paulo-rangel-nao-esta-preparado-para-ser-primeiro-ministro-14306464.html) as you, he says, cannot prepare yourself to be PM in 2 months and trashed Rangel's position of the minimum wage as "similar to PCP and BE". (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/rui-rio-recusa-visao-proxima-de-pcp-e-be-de-rangel-sobre-subida-do-salario-minimo-809624) Rangel refutes the criticisms of Rio saying he's ready to be Prime Minister and that he's the real and only alternative to the PS.

In terms of endorsements, Rangel is "crushing" Rio. The big local party structures are all with Rangel and many big profile figures, like Pinto Balsemão, haven't endorse Rio in a sign that Rio is losing support in the party's "barons", plus, one of Rio's deputies, Morais Sarmento, also isn't endorsing either Rio or Rangel. At the same time, polling shows that Rio is the favourite to lead the party within the PSD electorate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 18, 2021, 07:00:41 AM
PAN leader Inês Sousa Real in more hot waters after it's revealed that she may have illegally accumulated jobs while she worked in Sintra city hall:


Quote
PAN leader concealed company and illegally accumulated business with Civil Service

It has been tense days for PAN leader Inês Sousa Real. After it was revealed that she had shares in a Berry plantation that practices intensive agriculture, it's now being revealed that she may have accumulated a job in that same berry company without informing Sintra city hall, where she was also an employee. According to the law this is illegal, but Ms Sousa Real says that nothing illegal was done as her post in the berry company wasn't permanent nor she was paid. She is also accused of irregularly selling her shares, in the same berry company, first to her mother-in-law, who only had the shares for 3 seconds and then sold them to her son, Ms Sousa Real husband. Law experts say that this transaction may be invalid, as it could be seen as a way to bypass the law.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 19, 2021, 07:04:57 AM
Azores update:

CHEGA regional MP, José Pacheco, rejects Ventura's decision and will continue to support the PSD regional minority government.


Quote
CHEGA MP in the Azores does not follow Ventura's recommendation and secures Government

Quite a blow for Ventura. After his statement that CHEGA should tear up the Azores deal with the PSD, the party's regional MP, José Pacheco, has rejected Ventura's recommendation and will continue to support the PSD/CDS/PPM minority cabinet, for now. The announcement was made in a press conference by the MP, where he said that he's giving "a last opportunity" to the regional government, adding that the talks in the last few days between him and the government were "quite positive". The talks will continue he added but said his budget vote isn't decided yet.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 19, 2021, 11:06:58 AM
Changes in the PS: Speaker Ferro Rodrigues will not run for another term, and Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, will also leave the government after the elections.


Quote
Ferro Rodrigues leaving the Assembly of the Republic

There will be more changes in the PS lists in this snap elections. Costa is preparing to bring new faces for the lists, but, yesterday, Speaker Ferro Rodrigues announced he was not running for another term as MP or Speaker. Ferro Rodrigues is a MP since 1985, with a brief interruption between 2009-2011, and was elected Speaker of Parliament, the 2nd highest figure in the Portuguese State, since 2015.

Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, has also announced she will leave the government after the elections:


Quote
Minister says that a Government to reshuffle was expected and does not want to stay in office if the PS wins the elections

Francisca Van Dunem, Justice minister since 2015, has said she will not accept government posts if the PS wins the 2022 snap elections. However, she did make a strange revelation. She revealed that she agreed with Costa to leave during last summer, and that a government reshuffle was expected for that time of the year. This revelation is contrary to everything PM Costa has been saying about possible reshuffles, which is a matter he always denied he was planning to do.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 20, 2021, 01:30:18 PM
2022 election lists: PSD-Madeira approves coalition with CDS in the islands.  (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/psd-madeira-aprova-coligacao-com-o-cds-pp-na-regiao)

The PSD-Madeira leadership approved a coalition between them and the CDS for the January 2022 election the islands and election constituency. According to the deal, the PSD will pick the first 4 candidates in the lists, while CDS will only appear at the 5th place. This means the CDS has almost zero chances of electing a MP in Madeira, just like what happened in 2015 and 2019.

A nationwide PSD-CDS coalition has been discussed but it will most likely not happen as there's no time to negociate it.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 22, 2021, 10:59:27 AM
PSD leadership race: Final day to submit candidacies and party motions.


Quote
PSD Elections. What the motions of Rui Rio and Paulo Rangel say

Today, 22 November, is the deadline to submit candidacies and party motions/manifestos for the leadership ballot next Saturday, 27 November. Rio and Rangel have already delivered their candidacies, but there could be a surprise 3rd candidate, Nuno Miguel Henriques, a PSD member who is councillor in Alenquer cityhall and also is an actor/comedian.

In the manifestos/motions already delivered, by Rio and Rangel, there are some differences. Rio is open to talks with both the left and right, while Rangel refuses any talks with the PS or the left. Rio's manifesto is called "Governing Portugal", while Rangel's is called "Portugal: Ambition and Hope". Rio proposes "a new majority with no red lines" in which he will act in the best interest of the country, and the he wants to focus on reforms on the NHS, the Justice system and fighting corruption. Rangel defends that in order to change the country, the PSD has to change its leader and be a clear alternative to the Socialists. In terms of policies, each motion proposes the following:

Rui Rio:

- Urgent reform in the Justice system;
- Reform in the NHS by mobilizing all health services, public and private, to ensure good services and treatments;
- Corporate tax cuts and reform of the IRS tax system;
- Kindergartens accessible to all children;
- Promotion of school success with focus on rigor and curriculum clarity;

Paulo Rangel:

- Reform of the tax system with tax cuts;
- Focus on wage increases and better qualification and retraining of workers;
- Creation of an anti-corruption agency;
- Prizes for public employees for their productivity and if they save resources/money from the State;
- Focus on social mobility, with policies directed for "more social, intergenerational and territorial justice";

Around 46,000 PSD members are registered to vote in the leadership ballot on 27 November.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 22, 2021, 02:51:35 PM
PSD leadership update:

Today, 22 November, is the deadline to submit candidacies and party motions/manifestos for the leadership ballot next Saturday, 27 November. Rio and Rangel have already delivered their candidacies, but there could be a surprise 3rd candidate, Nuno Miguel Henriques, a PSD member who is councillor in Alenquer cityhall and also is an actor/comedian.

The deadline to submit candidacies was 6pm, and only Rio and Rangel will be on the ballot. Nuno Miguel Henriques announced, shortly after the deadline, that he was dropping out from the race (https://www.dn.pt/politica/nuno-miguel-henriques-desiste-da-corrida-a-lideranca-do-psd-a-bem-do-partido-e-do-pais--14342512.html) for "the good of the party and the country". He added he had enough signatures to be on the ballot, but, after talking with the Rio and Rangel candidacies, he decided to drop out.

A second round is, therefore, ruled out and the PSD will have its leadership situation resolved on Saturday.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on November 22, 2021, 10:34:19 PM
It's intriguing that Rangel's policies sound more concerned about poverty and social mobility than Rio's considering he's trying to absorb discontent from Rio's right, not his left. Either way, it seems PSD is going to end up with a centrist. Wonder what Ventura's thinking rn...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 23, 2021, 06:02:38 AM
It's intriguing that Rangel's policies sound more concerned about poverty and social mobility than Rio's considering he's trying to absorb discontent from Rio's right, not his left. Either way, it seems PSD is going to end up with a centrist. Wonder what Ventura's thinking rn...

They are basically saying the same thing, but using different words: Rangel talks about "social mobility", while Rio talks about wage increases, perhaps in more detail than Rangel. But, overall, nothing separates them in terms of policy. This race is more about personality and strategy, especially what to do regarding the PS. Both indeed are centrists, in fact Rangel was an ally of Rio, and that's why Rangel's run was badly received by Rio as he wasn't expecting Rangel to do this.

Ventura is getting such a beating from almost everyone, because of the whole Azores debacle, that he's not even appearing or saying that much. xD


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 23, 2021, 07:01:17 AM
Ventura is getting such a beating from almost everyone, because of the whole Azores debacle, that he's not even appearing or saying that much. xD

Long may that continue :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 23, 2021, 09:37:01 AM
They are basically saying the same thing, but using different words: Rangel talks about "social mobility", while Rio talks about wage increases, perhaps in more detail than Rangel. But, overall, nothing separates them in terms of policy. This race is more about personality and strategy, especially what to do regarding the PS. Both indeed are centrists, in fact Rangel was an ally of Rio, and that's why Rangel's run was badly received by Rio as he wasn't expecting Rangel to do this.

I imagine the respective positioning with regards to the Socialists and alliances will have the most weight with PSD members - after all it seems to be  the main reason Rangel is coded as to the right of Rio.
Incidentally, what lane was Nuno Miguel Henriques intending to take had he also run? Is he also more of a centrist?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 23, 2021, 10:44:36 AM
They are basically saying the same thing, but using different words: Rangel talks about "social mobility", while Rio talks about wage increases, perhaps in more detail than Rangel. But, overall, nothing separates them in terms of policy. This race is more about personality and strategy, especially what to do regarding the PS. Both indeed are centrists, in fact Rangel was an ally of Rio, and that's why Rangel's run was badly received by Rio as he wasn't expecting Rangel to do this.

I imagine the respective positioning with regards to the Socialists and alliances will have the most weight with PSD members - after all it seems to be  the main reason Rangel is coded as to the right of Rio.
Incidentally, what lane was Nuno Miguel Henriques intending to take had he also run? Is he also more of a centrist?

Indeed, what's dividing Rio and Rangel is their position regarding the PS, and the need to support them, or ask for the PS support if the PSD wins without a majority. In theory, what Rio proposes could be seen badly by PSD members and hurt him, but in practice, it's unclear as PSD members want power but at the same time want stability, and because Rangel is very vague on this issue and it could also hurt him. At the same time, Rangel accuses Rio of just wanting to be deputy PM of Costa, while Rio accuses Rangel of not being ready to be PM and of just making stuff up.

Nuno Miguel Henriques is more, or would be if he had ran, an "out of the box candidate", as his platform is quite vague and focused on cultural proposals and a "proposed third way" for the party, whatever that means, besides the current liberal/social democratic wings of the party. If he had ran, he would probably poll really low, maybe even below 1%. But actually, Nuno Miguel Henriques is better known for appearing in "gossip" talk shows, reality TV shows and for a series of ads he participated, as an actor, in the mid 2000s: The orange juice ad. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmD2btm7-zs); The Vodafone ad. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgrLmXxg148)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 25, 2021, 09:46:01 AM
Crisis avoided in the Azores: Parliament approves regional budget for 2022.


Quote
Azores budget generally approved

The scenario of a political crisis in the Azores, just like in the country as a whole, was closed, for the moment, this morning as the regional parliament approved the 2022 budget draft of the PSD/CDS/PPM minority government. The budget had 29 votes in favour (PSD/CDS/PPM+IL+CHEGA+Independent MP) and 28 votes against (PS+BE+PAN). The scenario of a political crisis arose when CHEGA leader André Ventura, advised the regional branch of CHEGA to remove their support for the PSD led minority. The sole CHEGA MP refused to remove his support and decided to continue negotiating with Mr Bolieiro's cabinet. In the end, it paid off and CHEGA voted in favour, against the wishes of Ventura.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 25, 2021, 03:53:04 PM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/eleicoes-legislativas/rui-rio/sondagem-tvi-cnn-empate-tecnico-entre-ps-e-psd-com-rio-na-lideranca/20261130/619fecca0cf2cc58e7d4e123)

Vote share %, Rui Rio as PSD leader: (compared with the previous poll)

38.2% PS (-3.1)
32.1% PSD (+7.0)
   7.1% CHEGA (nc)
   5.4% BE (-1.7)
   5.2% CDU (-0.3)
   4.2% IL (-0.5)
   1.9% PAN (+0.1)
   0.8% CDS (-1.2)
   5.1% Others/Invalid (+0.1)

Vote share %, Paulo Rangel as PSD leader: (compared with the previous poll)

39.6% PS (-1.7)
23.9% PSD (-1.2)
   8.4% CHEGA (+1.3)
   5.7% BE (-1.4)
   5.5% CDU (nc)
   5.1% IL (+0.4)
   2.4% CDS (+0.4)
   2.0% PAN (+0.2)
   7.4% Others/Invalid (+2.4)

Q: Best leader for the PSD?

PSD voters, vote share %:

58% Rui Rio
27% Paulo Rangel
15% Undecided

Poll conducted between 10 and 15 November 2021. Polled 625 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 26, 2021, 11:38:22 AM
Last session of the 14th Parliament:


Quote
Parliament meets last plenary. Bloc throws Temido by stressing “resilience” of health professionals

Today is the last Parliamentary session of the 14th Parliament before President Marcelo signs the dissolution papers next week. Several votes have been happening during this week, some that have infuriated the leftwing with the PS voting alongside the PSD in several issues. Some MPs are also saying goodbye, from Speaker Ferro Rodrigues to Cecília Meireles and Telmo Correia, both CDS MPs. During the last debate, there were also criticisms towards Health minister Marta Temido because of her remarks that the NHS has to hire "more resilient professionals". These remarks were very badly received and Ms Temido was forced to retract her statement and apologize.

The parliamentary votes in this last session, or in the last few sessions, that threw some attention are the following:

- Parliament approved the suspension of the abolition of SEF (Border Control Agency) for 6 months, because of the pandemic. This is a very delicate issue as the left is in favour of the abolition, but the right is totally against;
- Parliament gave the government the green light to impose outdoor mandatory masks;
- PS voted alongside the PSD and rejected a PCP bill to fight job precariousness;
- During this week, the PS also rejected a PCP bill to make changes in the labour laws, voting, also, alongside the PSD;
- Parliament extended to 20 days the period of parental grief, from the current 5 days. This vote was unanimous;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on November 26, 2021, 12:06:17 PM
That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 26, 2021, 12:53:16 PM
That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

Yeah, the poll results are quite surprising. It's just one poll, though, and the PSD rising trend was already visible, just like in the PS, plus, I also believe this is the best PSD share in a poll in 5 years or so. Also, some Rangel supporters had a meltdown, yesterday, on social media because of this poll. Oh, well. ::)

Now, more seriously, I don't know if Rio's strategy of "stability at all costs", isn't sounding like music to the ears of many voters. Rio is campaigning that he's ready to talk to the PS and/or the right (CDS and IL), in order to have a stable government, the PSD winning or losing. At the same time, the PS is still undecided on which strategy to follow: talk to the right, mend things with the left or bank everything on an absolute majority? Plus, Rangel is also very vague about the "PS talk" issue, and continues pressing on the ludicrous fantasy, IMO, of a PSD absolute majority. Even though Rio's strategy is trashed daily on the media and by his internal foes, amid a pandemic surge, economic anxiety and uncertainty about the future, maybe Rio's speech is just what voters want to hear. That's my view.

That Rangel wasn't reading the room, meaning voters overall, was clear for some time now as no single poll shows him ahead of Rio, even in PSD voters. Now, let's see if the PSD members also read the room, meaning, what polls are saying, of course.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Josecardoso17 on November 26, 2021, 04:21:04 PM
That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

its not very clear what the results will look like...
i would prefer Rui Rio but it seems like Paulo Rangel has some hard support from high PSD figures and regional leaders.
These people control a lot of voters and preferences soo its still a bit to soon to make assumptions.
And these last polls have been called as very strange because the best result for the PSD in some years is right now when the party is in a battle LMFAO


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 26, 2021, 05:47:19 PM
That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

its not very clear what the results will look like...
i would prefer Rui Rio but it seems like Paulo Rangel has some hard support from high PSD figures and regional leaders.
These people control a lot of voters and preferences soo its still a bit to soon to make assumptions.
And these last polls have been called as very strange because the best result for the PSD in some years is right now when the party is in a battle LMFAO

What's weird about this leadership election is that polls show that Rangel isn't wanted by the electorate, while he has gained massive support in the party's structures. The PSD campaign has been somewhat calm, nothing compared with previous leadership ballots were things got nasty, but, like I wrote in my post earlier, I feel that the electorate likes Rio's "stability strategy" and are willing to support the PSD because of this. Rangel has been very vague and there's nothing really concrete from his campaign in order for the electorate to connect with him.

Looking at past elections, PSD electorate polls normally predict the winner of the PSD membership ballots, and the only exception seems to be the 2007 Menezes vs Marques Mendes race which resulted in a surprise win for Menezes, completely out of the blue. Of course, Menezes leadership was quite ephemeral, only 8 months or so.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2021, 05:57:03 PM
That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

its not very clear what the results will look like...
i would prefer Rui Rio but it seems like Paulo Rangel has some hard support from high PSD figures and regional leaders.
These people control a lot of voters and preferences soo its still a bit to soon to make assumptions.
And these last polls have been called as very strange because the best result for the PSD in some years is right now when the party is in a battle LMFAO

What's weird about this leadership election is that polls show that Rangel isn't wanted by the electorate, while he has gained massive support in the party's structures. The PSD campaign has been somewhat calm, nothing compared with previous leadership ballots were things got nasty, but, like I wrote in my post earlier, I feel that the electorate likes Rio's "stability strategy" and are willing to support the PSD because of this. Rangel has been very vague and there's nothing really concrete from his campaign in order for the electorate to connect with him.

Looking at past elections, PSD electorate polls normally predict the winner of the PSD membership ballots, and the only exception seems to be the 2007 Menezes vs Marques Mendes race which resulted in a surprise win for Menezes, completely out of the blue. Of course, Menezes leadership was quite ephemeral, only 8 months or so.

If Rangel won and the poll happens to be right, would he be kicked out quickly?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 26, 2021, 06:00:21 PM
If Rangel won and the poll happens to be right, would he be kicked out quickly?

Oh yes. No doubt about that. Unlike Rio, Rangel supporters have really, really high expectations from him and if he fails, it's over. If he gets elected as PSD leader and still loses the general election but gives the PSD a good result anyway, he could stay on but would probably be challenged. But, if he gets the result forecast in that poll, it's gameover.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 07:05:54 AM
PSD leadership ballot today:

45,973 PSD members will decide, this Saturday, who will lead the party into the 30 January 2022 general election. Polls open at 2pm and close at 8pm.

Results will be posted on this website after 8pm: https://resultados.psd.pt/


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 09:03:13 AM
Polls are now open for the PSD leadership ballot.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 27, 2021, 11:00:06 AM
I presume, given the shortness of the timetable, that this is an online thing?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 11:04:26 AM
I presume, given the shortness of the timetable, that this is an online thing?

Nope, paper ballot.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 27, 2021, 11:05:05 AM
So how does that work?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 11:18:17 AM

The 46,000 party members with paid fees, go to a polling station in a local party headquarters or in a venue rented by the party, and there they receive two ballots: One to elect the leader of the party, and another to elect delegates to the party congress.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on November 27, 2021, 11:40:38 AM
That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

Yeah, the poll results are quite surprising. It's just one poll, though, and the PSD rising trend was already visible, just like in the PS, plus, I also believe this is the best PSD share in a poll in 5 years or so. Also, some Rangel supporters had a meltdown, yesterday, on social media because of this poll. Oh, well. ::)

Now, more seriously, I don't know if Rio's strategy of "stability at all costs", isn't sounding like music to the ears of many voters. Rio is campaigning that he's ready to talk to the PS and/or the right (CDS and IL), in order to have a stable government, the PSD winning or losing. At the same time, the PS is still undecided on which strategy to follow: talk to the right, mend things with the left or bank everything on an absolute majority? Plus, Rangel is also very vague about the "PS talk" issue, and continues pressing on the ludicrous fantasy, IMO, of a PSD absolute majority. Even though Rio's strategy is trashed daily on the media and by his internal foes, amid a pandemic surge, economic anxiety and uncertainty about the future, maybe Rio's speech is just what voters want to hear. That's my view.

That Rangel wasn't reading the room, meaning voters overall, was clear for some time now as no single poll shows him ahead of Rio, even in PSD voters. Now, let's see if the PSD members also read the room, meaning, what polls are saying, of course.

What polls? Was there any poll besides Pitagórica's and an Aximage poll earlier this month that had something like 38-31 with PSD voters? I think all the other polls only had

I don't think party structures matter much at all during the primary era. Nobody's going to vote because some guy they barely know at the Distrital supports this or that candidate. The causation runs the other way around.



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 11:51:47 AM
What polls? Was there any poll besides Pitagórica's and an Aximage poll earlier this month that had something like 38-31 with PSD voters? I think all the other polls only had

I don't think party structures matter much at all during the primary era. Nobody's going to vote because some guy they barely know at the Distrital supports this or that candidate. The causation runs the other way around.

Hi there Mello :) Welcome to the forum. Nice to see another fellow Portuguese poster around here :D

There was a RTP-CESOP poll that had Rio leading Rangel 48-41% in the PSD electorate. Intercampus did also a poll, but only the data from the overall electorate was released and had Rio up 49-34%. They didn't release details of the PSD electorate data.

I can agree that party local big bosses don't have the power they once had, especially when leaders were elected by delegates in the past, but they still have some power and can sway members to one side or another, maybe not the majority, but a pretty big portion who can still make or break.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 01:29:41 PM
PSD leadership ballot update:

Turnout seems to be high, as in Porto city, at 6pm, more than 70% had already cast a ballot, and in Lisbon, at 5pm, more than 50% also had already cast a ballot.

In January 2020, the final turnout rate was around 80%, with more than 40,600 members registered to vote.

Polls close in an hour and a half.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 03:01:49 PM
Polls are now closing in the PSD leadership ballot. The votes will now start being counted.

In an hour or so, we should have enough votes to see trends.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 03:31:37 PM
First results: 7% counted

50.6% Paulo Rangel
49.4% Rui Rio


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 03:51:56 PM
34.3% counted:

54.0% Rui Rio
46.0% Paulo Rangel


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 04:17:47 PM
This is going to be really, really close. Right now, Rio has 50.3% and Rangel 49.7%, with 59% counted.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 05:40:08 PM
Rui Rio is reelected as PSD leader.

With 94% of the votes counted:

52.3% Rui Rio (17,564)
47.7% Paulo Rangel (15,992)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 07:05:49 PM
Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 07:20:03 PM
Reactions by the candidates:

Rui Rio claims victory saying "End of chapter. Period. Now, let's win the elections":


Quote
Rio attributes victory to "grassroots members" and promises to victory in the general elections

PSD leader Rui Rio began his speech by saying that the leadership dispute is now over and now it's time for the party to focus on winning the general elections. Rio said that his victory is due to grassroots members that put always country over party. He added that many of the top bosses in the party are disconnected from the party membership. Rio also thanked Paulo Rangel for his concession and dignity, adding that they had a lengthy phone conversation. Rio went on to promise tax cuts and a series of NHS policies like family doctors for all the population.

Paulo Rangel conceded defeat and asked for unity in the party:


Quote
Rangel has already congratulated Rui Rio on his victory and calls for "unity" in the party for the general election

MEP Paulo Rangel conceded defeat just before 10pm and congratulated Rui Rio on his reelection. He recognized that Rui Rio's position as PSD leader is now even more strengthened and called for unity in the party for the general election campaign. He added that he will he "loyal" and "supportive" of Rio in the next two months of campaigning. He also confirmed he will stay on was MEP, but ruled out any future possible run, again, for the party leadership.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 27, 2021, 07:39:46 PM
Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 07:59:13 PM
Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.

I believe the PSD membership didn't understand Rangel's candidacy and what it stand for and decided with continuity. Regarding coalitions, do you mean the possible PSD-CDS coalition, or the possibility of PSD-PS government pacts?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 08:07:04 PM
Also, maps:

Most voted candidate by district and municipality:
()

Image link (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/14362_27_11_21_8_04_04.png)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 27, 2021, 08:07:57 PM
Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.

I believe the PSD membership didn't understand Rangel's candidacy and what it stand for and decided with continuity. Regarding coalitions, do you mean the possible PSD-CDS coalition, or the possibility of PSD-PS government pacts?

Yes thank you for you your updates on the election BTW. It seemed like most of the emphasis, now that an election was imminent, was on each candidate's approach to government. Given however that outcomes decide government options, even at time break down cordons and defy pre-election statements, preferred coalitions didn't seem like a meaningful division. But maybe that's just it - few clear known divisions with the surrounding circumstances dictating the outcome.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 27, 2021, 08:17:47 PM
Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.

I believe the PSD membership didn't understand Rangel's candidacy and what it stand for and decided with continuity. Regarding coalitions, do you mean the possible PSD-CDS coalition, or the possibility of PSD-PS government pacts?

Yes thank you for you your updates on the election BTW. It seemed like most of the emphasis, now that an election was imminent, was on each candidate's approach to government. Given however that outcomes decide government options, even at time break down cordons and defy pre-election statements, preferred coalitions didn't seem like a meaningful division. But maybe that's just it - few clear known divisions with the surrounding circumstances dictating the outcome.

Thanks for the feedback, :) Well, the main difference between both, Rio and Rangel, was regarding the PS, and possible pacts with them, similar to what happened in the past. Rio is in favour of talking to the PS in order to have stability, winning or losing the elections, while Rangel refused any talks with the PS, but when pressured by the media, he was vague on what to do. My hunch, looking at recent polling and like I already posted in a few posts above, is that the electorate seems to be appreciating Rio's stability talk in a time of massive instability due to the pandemic. Many of Rangel's supporters accuse, over and over again, Rio of being Costa's puppet by not persuing a tough opposition against Costa, and Rio's position about possible talks with the PS post-election, only infuriated them more.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 28, 2021, 12:08:32 PM
So Rui Rio was re-elected after all, but by a very narrow margin, which makes sense to me. Being who I am, my interest was particularly piqued by the maps you posted - thanks as always! - I am trying to see if there are trends in where the respective candidates' support comes from, but it seems so... random. To be fair this does not surprise me since evidently in many rural municipalities it must have been a couple dozen voters at most (on which note, a real troll move would be to produce a map by freguesia). Still, any ideas?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 28, 2021, 12:32:57 PM
So Rui Rio was re-elected after all, but by a very narrow margin, which makes sense to me. Being who I am, my interest was particularly piqued by the maps you posted - thanks as always! - I am trying to see if there are trends in where the respective candidates' support comes from, but it seems so... random. To be fair this does not surprise me since evidently in many rural municipalities it must have been a couple dozen voters at most (on which note, a real troll move would be to produce a map by freguesia). Still, any ideas?

Rio's win was actually a surprise because, even if polls showed that Rio was the favourite by the party's electorate, Rangel had such support from the party's machine and top bosses, that Rio seemed like the underdog, at least in theory. But, in reality, PSD members weren't impressed by Rangel nor his massive support from the party's machine. The margin was indeed narrow, but it's still a considerable win for Rio, who was basically alone in this whole race. Rio won because he dominated in Porto, Aveiro, Braga and Madeira. In Braga and Porto, Rangel's loss was a humiliation for the party's local structures as in these two districts, only one local party, Barcelos, supported Rio, the rest was all in Rangel's side. Rio swept Porto district and was able to win important places in Braga. Madeira, who was also in doubt, also gave Rio a strong result, even though Miguel Albuquerque, Madeira regional president, supported Rangel. But, here, Rio had the strong support of Alberto João Jardim, former Madeira President between 1977 and 2015.

By not winning these 4 districts, Rangel's path to victory was closed. Even in Lisbon, where Rangel won easily, his margin of victory wasn't enough to upset the losses he had in Porto and Aveiro.

A parish map is impossible because, if I 'm not wrong, all municipalities only had one polling station, and yeah, some municipalities only had, like, 10 or 20 votes cast.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 28, 2021, 06:53:38 PM
At the same time the media coverage was dominated by the PSD leadership ballot, CHEGA held their snap party congress in Viseu city:


Quote
Ventura adapts Salazar's motto: "God, fatherland, family and work"

CHEGA held this weekend their snap party congress, after the Constitutional Court ruled that the last party congress, in 2020, was "illegal" for being badly organized and called. The congress was much calmer than previous CHEGA meetings, but still had some moments. In terms of the leadership, Ventura was easily "crowned" as leader with 85% of support from the delegates, but he suffered a setback as his internal opposition was able to win 24% of the seats in the party's National Council Board. The PSD leadership ballot results, that gave a surprise victory to Rui Rio, dominated heavily the congress, with Ventura and many party delegates talking over and over again about the PSD, either trashing them or "quietly wishing" some kind of deal with them. In his final speech, Ventura surprised by chanting Salazar's motto of "God, fatherland, family" and then adding to it "work", adding that for 46 years, God has been out of the political speech because of fear of Salazar or the II World War, and that he isn't afraid of talking about God even if that upsets the "system".

He went on to talk about family values, and aimed at winning 15% of the votes in the January 2022 general elections. He also talked, a lot, about the PSD founder, Francisco Sá Carneiro, and that if he was alive today, he would be proud of CHEGA. One curious moment in the congress, was the election of the sole Azores MP, José Pacheco, as Ventura's deputy. This was a surprise after Mr Pacheco's rejection of Ventura's directive to end the party's support to the PSD minority government in the Azores islands.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on November 28, 2021, 06:57:57 PM
LOL


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 28, 2021, 07:19:52 PM

My thoughts exactly. Even because Ventura basically trashed Salazar in an interview in... 2020 (https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/andre-ventura-salazar-atrasou-nos-muitissimo):

Quote
"The Republic led by Dr. António de Oliveira Salazar, most of the time, also did not solve [the country's problems] and delayed us enormously in several aspects. post-World War II. Portugal could have developed extraordinarily and we were left behind, as well as the Spaniards"
(...)
"They're at ease with me because I don't miss a Republic I haven't lived through. That's not what moves me. I see Salazar as I see other figures in history. I won't judge which is better or worse: Salazar or [Álvaro ] Cunhal or Hitler or Stalin. We, in Portugal, in order to make real progress in the political question, we have to leave behind the ghosts of the past"
(...)

Classic Ventura ::) ::)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on November 29, 2021, 07:51:37 AM
To be honest I am not sure what is worse between trying to make neo-Salazarism real to trigger the libs or Ventura's assertion that Sá Carneiro would be proud of CHEGA. Either way, seeing also how Pacheco outmanoeuvered his leader so thoroughly, I can only add myself to the chorus of "LOL".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on November 29, 2021, 10:37:58 AM
I'm looking forward to the mess that Chega's upcoming parliamentary group will be. Expecting half of their MPs to leave the party within a year.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 29, 2021, 10:48:49 AM
I'm looking forward to the mess that Chega's upcoming parliamentary group will be. Expecting half of their MPs to leave the party within a year.

If the local elections are a forecast, then CHEGA will definitely lose several MPs after the elections. They have already lost one councillor, several municipal assembly members and there are several local parties in turmoil, not to mention the mess in the Azores. More in here:


Quote
The post-local elections of Chega is an empty nightmare



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 29, 2021, 08:15:43 PM
President Marcelo vetoes the Euthanasia legalization bill:


Quote
Euthanasia: President vetoes euthanasia law, which only returns to Parliament after elections

President Marcelo has vetoed the new Euthanasia bill, approved by Parliament about four weeks ago. After the first draft was ruled as unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court, President Marcelo refuses to sign the new bill and sends it back to Parliament. In his decision, Marcelo advises Parliament to make some changes: clarify the expression "incurable disease", if it means just a fatal illness or just a serious one; and the President also wants Parliament to reconsider the exclusion of "fatal disease" in the current draft, compared with the 1st draft earlier this year. The President fears that the new draft could increase the range of situations where Euthanasia would be allowed. About his second point, regarding the "fatal disease" exclusion from the bill, Marcelo asks if this "radical viewpoint corresponds to the dominant sentiment in Portuguese society".

This veto will be analysed by the new Parliament to be elected on January 30, 2022, as President Marcelo is expected to sign the dissolution papers in the next few days.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on November 30, 2021, 06:33:42 AM
Official results of the 2021 PSD leadership ballot:  (https://www.psd.pt/sites/default/files/2021-11/Diretas%202021%20-%20Homologac%CC%A7a%CC%83o%20de%20resultados_.pdf)

52.4% Rui Rio (18,852)
47.6% Paulo Rangel (17,106)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid ballots (518)

78.2% Turnout (36,476)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 01, 2021, 07:48:35 AM
Party lists for the general elections:

Parties are starting to discuss the composition of the lists to the 30 January general elections. So far, BE, CDU and Livre have presented some headlists names. PS and PSD are still discussing the lists, and news about them are only expected for next week. CDS, CHEGA, PAN and IL are also expected to announce names in the next few days. So far, the headlist candidates are the following:

Lelt Bloc (BE) (https://www.esquerda.net/artigo/mesa-nacional-aprova-listas-de-candidatura-eleicoes-de-janeiro-de-2022/78160)

Azores: Jéssica Pacheco
Aveiro: Moisés Ferreira, current MP;
Beja: José Esteves;
Braga: José Maria Cardoso, current MP
Braganza: André Xavier Ferreira
Castelo Branco: Cristina Guedes
Coimbra: José Manuel Pureza, current MP
Évora: Bruno Martins
Faro: José Gusmão, current MEP;
Guarda: Pedro Cardoso
Leiria: Ricardo Vicente, current MP;
Lisbon: Mariana Mortágua, current MP;
Madeira: Luísa Santos
Portalegre: Cecília Carrilho
Porto: Catarina Martins, BE leader and current MP;
Santarém: Fabíola Cardoso, current MP
Setúbal: Joana Mortágua, Almada councillor and current MP;
Viana do Castelo: Luís Louro
Vila Real: Enara Teixeira
Viseu: Manuela Antunes
Europe: Maria Teresa Soares
Outside Europe: Miguel Heleno

During the approval of BE's lists, there were some heated disagreements because of the non inclusion of some names proposed by local party branches (https://ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/754509/be-listas-de-candidatos-fechadas-com-direito-a-protestos?seccao=Portugal_i), which led to some party members refusing to vote on the lists and leaving the meeting.

Unitary Democratic Coalition PCP-PEV (CDU) (https://www.pcp.pt/cdu-divulga-primeiros-candidatos-eleicoes-para-assembleia-da-republica-de-2022)

Azores: Judite Barros
Aveiro: Adelino Nunes
Beja: João Dias, current MP;
Braga: Torcato Ribeiro
Braganza: Joana Monteiro
Castelo Branco: Jorge Fael
Coimbra: Manuel Pires da Rocha
Évora: João Oliveira, PCP caucus leader, current MP;
Faro: Catarina Marques
Guarda: André Santos
Leiria: Heloísa Apolónia, PEV leader;
Lisbon: Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader and current MP;
Madeira: Herlanda Amado
Portalegre: Helena Neves
Porto: Diana Ferreira, current MP;
Santarém: António Filipe, current MP
Setúbal: Paula Santos, current MP;
Viana do Castelo: Joaquim Celestino
Vila Real: José Miguel Fernandes
Viseu: Alexandre Hoffmann Castela
Europe: Joana de Abreu Carvalho
Outside Europe: Dulce Kurtenbach

Livre (L) (https://observador.pt/2021/11/29/livre-rui-tavares-vence-primarias-e-e-candidato-por-lisboa-as-legislativas/)

Azores: José Azevedo
Aveiro: Joana Filipe
Beja: João Aiveca Caseiro
Braga: Teresa Mota
Castelo Branco: Stela Lourenço
Coimbra: Rui Mamede
Évora: Glória Franco
Faro: Marta Setúbal
Guarda: Margarida Bordalo
Leiria: Filipe Honório
Lisbon: Rui Tavares, Livre leader and Lisbon councillor;
Madeira: Tiago Camacho
Portalegre: Francisco Biscainho
Porto: Jorge Pinto
Santarém: Sandro Miguel Santos
Setúbal: Paulo Muacho
Viana do Castelo: Filipe Faro da Costa
Vila Real: João Luís Silva
Viseu: Miguel Won
Europe: Natércia Rodrigues Lopes
Outside Europe: Geiziely Fernandes


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 03, 2021, 10:00:07 AM
DA office accuses the chauffeur of Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita of negligent homicide for the deadly run over of a road worker last July:


Quote
Cabrita driver accused of negligent homicide. Car was going at 166 km per hour

The controversy that started last July, when a road worker was run over by the official car of minister Eduardo Cabrita, with the minister as a passenger when the accident happened, had another chapter today. The DA office announced that they are going to accuse the chauffeur of the minister of negligent homicide for run over of the road worker. The DA says that the car was going at 166 km/h (103 miles/h), which violated the law, plus violated other rules in the road code. The worker died and there was a lot of controversy because of the way the minister handled the whole situation, and how the family of the victim was treated by the government. This story has had a lot of media coverage and has put enormous pressure under Mr Cabrita, but also on PM Costa. When asked by reporters about the accusation, Mr Cabrita said he was only a passenger in the car, and that this is just the rule of law working.

The lawyers of the family of the victim are also considering asking for fact-finding in the lawsuit, to see if there's any complicity of minister Eduardo Cabrita in the accident.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 03, 2021, 12:55:27 PM
DA office accuses the chauffeur of Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita of negligent homicide for the deadly run over of a road worker last July:

He's out: Eduardo Cabrita has resigned from the government.  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/demissao/eduardo-cabrita-demite-se-de-ministro-da-administracao-interna/20211203/61aa59150cf2cc58e7d60ddc)


Quote
The minister of Internal Affairs asked the prime minister to resign this Friday, the day that the accusation of negligent homicide of the driver who was driving Eduardo Cabrita was known when, in June, there was an accident on the A6 that killed a man.

In a statement to the press, Cabrita said he was resigning from the government because he doesn't want this case to hurt the government nor the PS chances in the January 30 general elections, adding that only the "loyalty and friendship" to the PM made him continued as minister. He said he's sorry about this whole tragedy and is also sorry that many people are using this tragedy as a political weapon.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 03, 2021, 06:11:36 PM
PM Costa has chosen Francisca Van Dunem, Justice Minister, as the successor of Eduardo Cabrita as Interior Minister. She will accumulate this post with her current one.


Quote
Francisca van Dunem accumulates Internal Administration folder

She will accumulate both posts until the next government is formed, after the 30 January elections. Her swearing in is expected tomorrow at 3pm, on the Presidential Palace.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 03, 2021, 09:30:35 PM
2022 general election lists: PSD, CDS and PPM to run in a coalition in the Azores islands.


Quote
PSD, CDS-PP, PPM compete in pre-electoral coalition in the Azores

The regional parties of PSD, CDS and PPM will contest the 30 January general election in a coalition called "Democratic Alliance" (AD), the same name of the successful nationwide coalition between the same parties in the late 70's, early 80's. Only the PSD will have eligible seats, the first 3 seats.

So, Madeira and the Azores will have PSD-CDS coalitions, adding PPM in the Azores, for the general elections. In the mainland, Rui Rio and CDS have been "toying" with the idea of a nationwide PSD-CDS coalition, very welcomed by the CDS, but the idea isn't that supported in the PSD and even within Rio's leadership team some say it would just "charity". Rio is still undecided on a possible coalition, but time is running out to negotiate seats, the deadline is 20 December, and the most likely is PSD and CDS running alone in the mainland.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 05, 2021, 07:22:41 AM
2022 general elections: President Marcelo signs the dissolution papers.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-12-05-Presidente-da-Republica-dissolve-Parlamento-e-convoca-eleicoes-830e22cd)

President Marcelo has signed, this Sunday morning, the Parliament dissolution papers and officially called an election for 30 January 2022.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 06, 2021, 12:24:54 PM
More controversy surrounding former minister Eduardo Cabrita: Key witness that cleared the minister of any wrongdoing in the accident wasn't in the car with the minister, unlike what is written in the DA accusation.


Quote
Witness that clears Eduardo Cabrita was not in the same car as the minister

The controversy regarding the role of former Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita in the deadly run over of a road worker in July, had another chapter today. The media is reporting a grave error in the DA office accusation as it's being revealed that the key witness that cleared the minister of any wrongdoing, a police officer, wasn't in the car with the minister but rather in a second car behind the official ministerial car. The prosecution process clearly says that only four people were in the minister's car, while the DA accusation says the opposite, five people were in the car.

Law experts are suggesting that this error could invalidate the whole accusation and send the prosecution back to square one. This is a massive disaster for the DA office. What a mess.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 06, 2021, 05:46:25 PM
A Lisbon Court has sentenced CHEGA leader André Ventura to apologize to a family he called "thugs" in a live debate on TV. The Court is forcing Ventura to publicly apologize, and retract his attack, to a family that lives in the Jamaica neighborhood, a very poor neighborhood in Seixal city, and has to publish his apology in the media outlets that originally published the story plus in CHEGA's social media platforms. He and his party cannot give any future comments about this family which could be sanctioned by 5,000 euros by each infraction. The Court also decided that for each day the apology isn't published in CHEGA's social media platform, the party has to pay a daily 500 euros fine. Ventura and CHEGA, however, will appeal this ruling.

Ventura lost his appeal in the Supreme Court: High Court upholds the lower court ruling and accuses Ventura and CHEGA of racial segregation:


Quote
Supreme condemns André Ventura and Chega for racial segregation

The Supreme Court has upheld the 2021 May ruling of a lower ruling Lisbon court that demanded Ventura and CHEGA to apologize for the attack Ventura made to a family from Jamaica neighborhood, Seixal. The Court also definitely condemns Ventura and CHEGA of racial segregation, and they also ruled that Ventura is barred from appealing again. Reacting to the ruling, Ventura says he respects the Court's ruling, but adds that it is unfair, that he will not change his way of being in public, and that he would make the same remarks again.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 07, 2021, 08:08:17 PM
Party lists for the general elections: PSD approves their lists in a very tense meeting and rejects a joint coalition with CDS.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-12-07-PSD.-Rio-exclui-apoiantes-de-Rangel-mas-consegue-aprovar-listas-por-larga-maioria-a504e609)

The PSD held, in Évora city, a National Council meeting to discuss and approve the party's lists for the January 30 general elections. Before the meeting, the PSD leadership also decided to reject a possible joint coalition with CDS, an idea that Rio had been toying for a while. The meeting itself, of the National Council, was very, very tense as many PSD councillors were deeply upset, and angry, with Rio's picks for the lists. Rio decided to remove from the lists several local party leaders that changed their support from him to Rangel in the 27 November leadership ballot, and picked only people close to him, or that maintained neutral in the race. During the meeting, several Rangel supporters accused Rio of being a "little dictator", of persuing a "purge" and of being "mediocre". In the end, the lists were approved with 67 votes in favour (71%) and 21 against (22%). There were also 6 abstentions.

The headlist candidates for each district are the following:

Azores: Paulo Moniz, current MP;
Aveiro: António Topa Gomes
Beja: Henrique Silvestre
Braga: André Coelho Lima, current MP;
Braganza: Adão Silva, PSD caucus leader;
Castelo Branco: Cláudia André, current MP;
Coimbra: Mónica Quintela, current MP;
Évora: Sónia Ramos, councillor in Estremoz city;
Faro: Luís Gomes, former mayor of Vila Real de Santo António;
Guarda: Gustavo Duarte, former mayor of Vila Nova de Foz Côa;
Leiria: Paulo Mota Pinto;
Lisbon: Ricardo Batista Leite, current MP and councillor in Sintra city;
Madeira: Sérgio Marques, current MP;
Portalegre: João Pedro Luís
Porto: Sofia Matos, current MP;*
Santarém: Isaura Morais, current MP
Setúbal: Nuno Carvalho, current MP;
Viana do Castelo: Jorge Mendes, current MP;
Vila Real: Artur Soveral de Andrade
Viseu: Hugo Carvalho, current MP;
Europe: Maria Ester Vargas
Outside Europe: Maló de Abreu, current MP;

* PSD leader Rui Rio is the nº2 candidate for Porto district, just like in 2019: Top 5 Porto district list: (40 to elect)

1. Sofia Matos
2. Rui Rio, PSD leader;
3. Paulo Rios de Oliveira, current MP;
4. Catarina Rocha Ferreira, current MP;
5. Afonso Oliveira, current MP;

Top 5 Lisbon district: (48 to elect)

1. Ricardo Baptista Leite
2. José Silvano, PSD general-secretary and current MP;
3. Isabel Meireles, PSD deputy leader and current MP;
4. Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, PSD economic head;
5. Duarte Pacheco, Deputy Speaker;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 08, 2021, 09:13:43 AM
2022 general elections: No changes in the distribution of seats by district.

The seat distribution by district suffered no changes compared with 2019. The Electoral Commission presented the official distribution of seats last Monday. Also, 10,821,244 voters will be registered to vote, 9,299,454 in Portugal alone, and 1,521,790 overseas. The final seat presentation by district is the following:  (https://www.cne.pt/sites/default/files/dl/ar2022-mapa-deputados-1-c-2021.pdf)

    5 Azores
  16 Aveiro
    3 Beja
  19 Braga
    3 Braganza
    4 Castelo Branco
    9 Coimbra
    3 Évora
    9 Faro
    3 Guarda
  10 Leiria
  48 Lisbon
    6 Madeira
    2 Portalegre
  40 Porto
    9 Santarém
  18 Setúbal
    6 Viana do Castelo
    5 Vila Real
    8 Viseu
    2 Europe
    2 Outside Europe

230 Total

The method used to elect MPs is the D'hondt method and there's no official threshold to win seats.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 08, 2021, 12:13:57 PM
Party lists for the general elections: PAN unveils head-list candidates.

People-Animals-Nature (PAN) (https://www.pan.com.pt/pan-apresenta-candidatura-as-legislativas-2022/)

Aveiro: Rui Alvarenga
Beja: Luís Vicente
Braga: Rafael Pinto
Braganza: Octávio Pires
Castelo Branco: Amália Cardoso
Coimbra: João Pedro Costa
Faro: Ana Poeta
Leiria: Liliana Vieira
Lisbon: Inês de Sousa Real, PAN leader;
Madeira: Joaquim Sousa
Portalegre: Jorge Alcobia
Porto: Bebiana Cunha, PAN caucus leader;
Santarém: Mónica Silva
Setúbal: Vítor Pinto
Viana do Castelo: Miguel Queirós
Vila Real: José Castro
Viseu: Carolina Almeida

Looking at the list, it seems that PAN will not be running candidates in Azores, Évora, Guarda and the overseas constituencies of Europe and Outside Europe.

Of the main parties, PS, CDS, CHEGA and IL are yet to unveil their lists.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 12, 2021, 11:49:45 AM
Political update:

The political scene has been rather quiet in the last few days, with the pandemic having more coverage currently. However, this weekend, the Liberal Initiative (IL) and Livre held their party congresses:

- The Liberals (IL) congress, which reelected João Cotrim Figueiredo as leader with 94% of the delegates votes, was a quiet one with no major stories from it. In his speech, Cotrim Figueiredo, aimed at winning more than 4.5% of the votes in the general election and elect more than 4 MPs (https://www.publico.pt/2021/12/12/politica/noticia/cotrim-marcou-alvo-so-ataca-ps-costa-agarrados-estrategia-pais-1988330). He targeted the PS as their clear rivals, and are open in supporting a PSD led government, but now willing to support or endorse PS-PSD deals;

- Livre also held their congress. It was very low profile event, as the party has basically collapsed according to polling. Rui Tavares will be the main candidate for the party, in 2019 Joacine Katar Moreira was the main candidate, and he said that a vote for Livre is a "vote for certainty" (https://www.dn.pt/politica/rui-tavares-voto-no-livre-e-o-unico-sem-ambiguidade-14401433.html) as, he said, the party will never aligned with the rightwing and is willing to support a broad leftwing deal after the elections. However, Livre's abysmal polling numbers has made TV networks to remove them from the TV debates, and Livre has filed a lawsuit against the networks in order to be on the debates. (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/livre-vai-apresentar-providencia-cautelar-contra-televisoes-por-exclusao-de-debates-14395179.html)

Tomorrow, 13 December, the PS is expected to approve their list of candidates for the elections. The main story about these lists is the inclusion of the former mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina, defeated last September, in the top names for Lisbon. (https://www.dn.pt/politica/listas-do-ps-costa-em-primeiro-lugar-e-fernando-medina-em-quinto-em-lisboa-14398057.html) Some suggest that this may be an indication that Medina may take part in a future Costa cabinet after the elections.

Next weekend, the PSD will hold their party congress in Santa Maria da Feira, Aveiro district.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 13, 2021, 05:54:46 PM
Tomorrow, 13 December, the PS is expected to approve their list of candidates for the elections. The main story about these lists is the inclusion of the former mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina, defeated last September, in the top names for Lisbon. (https://www.dn.pt/politica/listas-do-ps-costa-em-primeiro-lugar-e-fernando-medina-em-quinto-em-lisboa-14398057.html) Some suggest that this may be an indication that Medina may take part in a future Costa cabinet after the elections.

PS approves their lists for the 30 January general elections (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/ps-aprova-lista-de-deputados-para-as-eleicoes-legislativas-veja-aqui?ref=HP_OutrasNoticias1). The head-list candidates, by district, are the following:

Azores: Francisco César
Aveiro: Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister;
Beja: Pedro Carmo, current MP;
Braga: José Luís Carneiro, PS deputy secretary-general anc current MP;
Braganza: João Sobrinho Teixeira, Secretary for Science and Technology;
Castelo Branco: Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion minister;
Coimbra: Marta Temido, Health minister;
Évora: Capoulas Santos, former Agriculture minister and current MP;
Faro: Jamila Madeira, current MP
Guarda: Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour and Social Security minister;
Leiria: António Lacerda Sales, Health secretary;
Lisbon: António Costa, PS leader and PM;
Madeira: Carlos Pereira, current MP;
Portalegre: Ricardo Pinheiro, Planning secretary;
Porto: Alexandre Quintanilha, current MP;
Santarém: Alexandra Leitão, Public Services minister;
Setúbal: Ana Catarina Mendes, PS caucus leader;
Viana do Castelo: Tiago Brandão Rodrigues, Education minister;
Vila Real: Francisco Rocha
Viseu: João Azevedo, current MP
Europe: Paulo Pisco, current MP
Outside Europe: Augusto Santos Silva, Foreign Affairs minister;

The top six names in the Lisbon list: (48 to elect in Lisbon district)

1. António Costa;
2. Edite Estrela, Deputy Speaker;
3. Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership;
4. Duarte Cordeiro, Parliamentary Affairs secretary;
5. Fernando Medina, former mayor Lisbon;
6. Graça Fonseca, Culture minister;

Top 6 in Porto district list: (40 to elect)

1. Alexandre Quintanilha
2. Rosário Gamboa, current MP;
3. Matos Fernandes, Environment minister;
4. Isabel Oneto, former Interior secretary and current MP;
5. João Paulo Correia, Deputy PS caucus leader;
6. Ana Paula Bernardo, UGT union deputy secretary;

According to the media, Edite Estrela, seems to be the likely PS candidate for the office of Speaker of Parliament, to be elected after the elections.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 15, 2021, 10:21:06 AM
2022 election campaign: There will be 36 debates, so far, between parties.  (https://observador.pt/2021/12/15/rtp-sic-e-tvi-vao-realizar-36-debates-ate-as-eleicoes-legislativas-incluindo-com-o-livre/)

The 3 main TV networks, RTP, SIC and TVI, agreed to include Livre in the debates after the party started a legal action against the networks. Therefore, the total number of debates will reach 36, in which they will consist of one-on-one debates between the leaders of the parties that won seats in 2019: PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS, PAN, CHEGA, IL and Livre. A debate between all parties could also happen. The debate calendar is expected to be released in the next few days.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 15, 2021, 10:33:48 AM
2022 election campaign: There will be 36 debates, so far, between parties.  (https://observador.pt/2021/12/15/rtp-sic-e-tvi-vao-realizar-36-debates-ate-as-eleicoes-legislativas-incluindo-com-o-livre/)



WTF, that can't be normal...right? Especially for a campaign of a few weeks. That number would devalue all but the debate between PSD and PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 15, 2021, 10:45:38 AM
2022 election campaign: There will be 36 debates, so far, between parties.  (https://observador.pt/2021/12/15/rtp-sic-e-tvi-vao-realizar-36-debates-ate-as-eleicoes-legislativas-incluindo-com-o-livre/)



WTF, that can't be normal...right? Especially for a campaign of a few weeks. That number would devalue all but the debate between PSD and PS.

It's has become a bit normal, and yeah, it removes importance from the majority of debates and the real attention is only given at just a few debates. This is because there's a tradition in Portuguese politics, since the 90's, of having one-on-one debates between party leaders. It's a way to give equal opportunity to all parties, either small or big. This worked fine when there were just 4 or 5 parties in Parliament, but now with 9 different parties it becomes complicated.

Some of these debates will probably not even be broadcast in the main channels of the 3 major networks, but rather in their 24 news channels: SIC Notícias, RTP3 and CNN Portugal. Of course, the main debate is the PS vs PSD one, but the PS vs BE and CDU could be interesting and of course Ventura can always create a scene in each debate he participates. I don't know if there will also be a radio debate, as it happened in 2015 and 2019.

Plus, because of Covid, campaign events, ralies and so on, will probably be very limited and debates may be the only way for parties to get out their messages.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 15, 2021, 06:28:28 PM
CDS-PP approves their lists unanimously:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/cds-pp/deputados/cds-aposta-em-novos-nomes-para-os-cabecas-de-lista-as-legislativas-de-2022/20211216/61ba03360cf2c7ea0f0dab6f)

The CDS national council approved the lists for the January 2022 general elections. None of the candidates running are current MPs. The head-list candidates by district are the following:

Azores: PSD-CDS-PPM coalition
Aveiro: António Loureiro, mayor of Albergaria-a-Velha;
Beja: Francisco Palma
Braga: José Paulo Areia de Carvalho
Braganza: António Lemos Mendonça
Castelo Branco: Maria Inês Amaral
Coimbra: Jorge Alexandre Almeida
Évora: Jorge Alexandre Almeida
Faro: José Pedro Caçorino
Guarda: João Mário Amaral
Leiria: António Galvão Lucas
Lisbon: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, CDS leader;
Madeira: PSD-CDS coalition
Portalegre: Bruno Batista
Porto: Filipa Correia Pinto
Santarém: Pedro Melo
Setúbal: Cecília Anacoreta Correia, CDS spokeswoman;
Viana do Castelo: Joana Mendes
Vila Real: Vítor Pimentel
Viseu: Manuel Marques
Europe: Francisca Sampaio
Outside Europe: Rahim Ahmad

Of the main parties, only CHEGA and IL have yet to officially announce their lists.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 16, 2021, 12:02:06 PM
Party lists: CHEGA approves their lists for the election.

CHEGA (CH) (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/chega-aprova-por-unanimidade-listas-para-as-legislativas_v1370737)

Azores: José Pacheco, regional MP;
Aveiro: Jorge Valsassina Galveias
Beja: Ana Moisão, councillor in Serpa city;
Braga: Filipe Melo
Braganza: Jorge Pires
Castelo Branco: João Dias Ribeiro
Coimbra: Paulo Ralha, former PS and BE member and former Union leader;
Évora: Edalberto Figueiredo
Faro: Pedro Pinto
Guarda: José Marques
Leiria: Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro, former PSD member and current CHEGA deputy leader;
Lisbon: André Ventura, CHEGA leader;
Madeira: Martinho de Gouveia
Portalegre: Júlio Paixão
Porto: Rui Afonso
Santarém: Pedro dos Santos Frazão, councillor in Santarém city;
Setúbal: Bruno Nunes, councillor in Loures city;
Viana do Castelo: Manuel Rego Moreira
Vila Real: Manuela Tender, former PSD MP;
Viseu: João Tilly, youtuber known for propagating fake news;
Europe: João Batista
Outside Europe: José Dias Fernandes


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 16, 2021, 08:38:57 PM
Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/infograficos/detalhe/barometro-intercampus-intencao-de-voto-agora-e-comparacao-com-os-resultados-de-novembro?ref=Pesquisa_Destaques)

Vote share %:

29.4% PS (-5.3)
22.2% PSD (-2.8 )
  7.4% CHEGA (+1.8 )
  5.5% BE (-1.4)
  5.3% IL (+1.6)
  3.7% CDU (-1.1)
  2.9% PAN (-1.0)
  1.3% CDS (-0.5)
  0.7% Livre (-0.5)
  4.4% Others/Invalid (+1.9)
17.1% Undecided (+6.2)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 1 and 5)

3.1 António Costa (-0.1)
3.0 Rui Rio (+0.2)
2.8 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.6 Inês Sousa Real (-0.2)
2.6 Catarina Martins (nc)
2.5 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.3 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (nc)
2.0 André Ventura (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 7 and 14 December 2021. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

* For some reason, Intercampus only published the raw poll numbers. No projection.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2021, 10:53:56 AM
And here it is:

2022 election debates: The debate calendar is revealed.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2021-12-17-Legislativas-36-debates-nove-partidos-e-14-dias-para-seguir-na-televisao.-Veja-aqui-o-calendario-c83930aa)

2 January: PS vs Livre (9PM on RTP1)
                 BE vs CHEGA (10PM on SIC Notícias)

3 January: PSD vs CHEGA (9PM on SIC)
                 BE vs CDU (10PM on CNN Portugal)

4 January: BE vs Livre (Afrer 6PM on SIC Notícias)
                 PS vs CDU (9PM on TVI)
                 CDS vs PAN (10PM on RTP3)

5 January: CDS vs IL (Afrer 6PM on RTP3)
                 PSD vs BE (9PM on SIC)
                 CHEGA vs Livre (10PM on CNN Portugal)

6 January: CDU vs Livre (Afrer 6PM on CNN Portugal)
                 PS vs CHEGA (9 PM on RTP1)
                 BE vs IL (10PM on SIC Notícias)

7 January: PSD vs CDS (9PM on TVI)
                 CDU vs CHEGA (10PM on RTP3)

8 January: PS vs PAN (9PM on TVI)
                 PSD vs Livre (10PM on RTP1)
                 CDS vs CDU (11PM on CNN Portugal)

9 January: PS vs CDS (9PM on SIC)
                 IL vs CHEGA (10PM on RTP3)
                 PAN vs Livre (11PM on SIC Notícias)

10 January: BE vs PAN (After 6PM on RTP3)
                   PSD vs IL (9PM on SIC)
                   CDS vs Livre (10PM on CNN Portugal)

11 January: IL vs PAN (After 6PM on SIC Notícias)
                   PS vs BE (9PM on RTP1)
                   CDU vs PAN (10PM on CNN Portugal)

12 January: CDS vs CHEGA (After 6PM on CNN Portugal)
                   PSD vs CDU (9PM on SIC)
                   IL vs Livre (10PM on SIC Notícias)

13 January: PS vs PSD (9PM; Joint broadcast by RTP1, SIC and TVI)

14 January: PAN vs CHEGA (After 6PM on SIC Notícias)
                   PS vs IL (9PM on TVI)
                   BE vs CDS (10PM on RTP3)

15 January: PSD vs PAN (9PM on RTP1)
                   CDU vs IL (10PM on RTP3)

17 January: All party debate (9PM on RTP1)

18 January: Minor party's debate (9PM on RTP1)

Adding to this, CMTV will do a series of interviews with party leaders. Radio stations could also propose debates, as in 2015 and 2019, Antena1, TSF and Renascença Radio held an all party debate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on December 17, 2021, 11:04:19 AM
Wait, so we're not getting an all-minor-party TV debate? I unironically love those.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2021, 11:08:47 AM
Wait, so we're not getting an all-minor-party TV debate? I unironically love those.

If it's like previous election years, they will protest, threaten legal actions and the networks will give in. In 2011, the debate was on RTP2, with the hilarious performance of PTP's candidate José Manuel Coelho. In 2019, it was, well, entertaining, to say the least. ;)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2021, 03:16:57 PM
Wait, so we're not getting an all-minor-party TV debate? I unironically love those.

If it's like previous election years, they will protest, threaten legal actions and the networks will give in. In 2011, the debate was on RTP2, with the hilarious performance of PTP's candidate José Manuel Coelho. In 2019, it was, well, entertaining, to say the least. ;)

Update: There will indeed be a debate between parties not represented in Parliament.  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/rtp-sic-e-tvi-acordam-calendario-de-debates-para-as-eleicoes-de-janeiro-de-2022_n1371058)

RTP1 will host a debate between parties not represented in Parliament on 18 January. The network will also host a debate between parties that elected MPs to Parliament in 2019: PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS, PAN, CHEGA, IL, Livre. This one will be held on 17 January.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2021, 03:40:14 PM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/eleicoes/legislativas/sondagem-cnn-tvi-distancia-entre-ps-e-psd-esta-agora-mais-pequena/20211217/61bcde110cf2c7ea0f0e0815)

Vote share %:

37.0% PS (-1.3)
31.7% PSD (-0.4)
  6.3% CHEGA (-0.8 )
  5.9% CDU (+0.7)
  5.9% IL (+1.7)
  4.9% BE (-0.5)
  3.0% PAN (+1.1)
  1.0% CDS (+0.2)
  4.3% Others/Invalid (-0.8 )

Q: Should António Costa be reelected or replaced?

46% Replaced
45% Reelected
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 7 and 12 December 2021. Polled 625 voters. MoE of 4.00%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2021, 06:02:37 PM
PSD national congress started today in Santa Maria da Feira, Aveiro:


Quote
Rio attacks PS and promises courage to make ruptures and reforms

The 39th PSD national congress started this evening in Santa Maria da Feira, Aveiro district. PSD leader, Rui Rio, opened the congress with a speech presenting his motion to the delegates. He first thanked the party's membership base for their work and commitment in the defense of a social democracy that promotes liberty, social justice, development and tolerance. He went on saying the PSD is a party of the center, that fights the excesses of the rightwing and the leftwing and he praised the party's founder, Francisco Sá Carneiro. He promises to govern with "rigor and courage", accusing the PS of being brilliant in propaganda but a major disappointment in action. With the slogan "Portugal in the Center", Rio proposed a series of reforms on the political system and in the Justice system, accusing once more the PS of not having any courage in resolving the problems of the country.

The congress will last until Sunday afternoon, 19 December, and it will end with another speech from Rui Rio. The majority of the delegates in the congress are not from Rio's lists, and the votes for the different party structures, the party's tribunal and the National Council, will be closely followed.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2021, 07:59:30 PM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/psd-dispara-para-os-332-e-esta-a-dois-pontos-do-ps-14421432.html)

Vote share %:

35.4% PS (-3.1)
33.2% PSD (+8.8 )
   7.3% BE (-1.5)
   6.2% CHEGA (-1.5)
   5.1% CDU (+0.5)
   3.7% IL (-1.0)
   2.5% PAN (-0.3)
   1.3% CDS (-0.7)
   5.3% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Preferred PM:

46% António Costa (+2)
21% Rui Rio (+2)
19% Neither (-10)
  5% Both (+4)
  9% Undecided (+2)

Party leaders approval ratings: (compared with last poll)

António Costa: 42% Approve (+8); 23% Disapprove (-15)
Rui Rio: 33% Approve (+14); 25%; Disapprove (-16)
João Cotrim Figueiredo: 22% Disapprove (-5); 20% Approve (nc)
Catarina Martins: 35% Disapprove (-8); 25% Approve (+3)
Inês Sousa Real: 32% Disapprove (+7); 17% Approve (-8)
Jerónimo de Sousa: 38% Disapprove (-8); 18% Approve (+2)
Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. 46% Disapprove (+9); 13% Approve (+1)
André Ventura: 63% Disapprove (+3); 12% Approve (-3)

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 December 2021. Polled 810 voters. MoE of 3.44%.

This is the smallest margin between PS and PSD in a poll since April 2016.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 18, 2021, 11:33:39 AM
The PSD congress has been quite calm with no major stories from it, but, for some reason, the media is saying that there's the possibility of Pedro Santana Lopes, mayor of Figueira da Foz, coming to the party's congress and make some kind of statement.

Santana and the PSD had a bitter dispute in Figueira da Foz.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 18, 2021, 03:52:16 PM
Costa says that the "geringonça" is over and that now it's a choice between him and Rio:


Quote
Legislative Elections 2022: Costa emphasizes that “contraption” ended in 2021 and the choice is between him or Rio

In a speech in the PS youth wing congress, PM António Costa said that the "geringonça" is over and that a leftwing majority is only with the PS, adding that in these elections that choice is between him and Rui Rio. Costa said that the last thing the country wanted was a general election and the government did everything on their power to prevent a crisis. He went on by saying that only a  PS majority can give stability to the country, as Portugal cannot have crisis every two years. He asked for the mobilization of the PS warning that the "elections are never won from the start".

During the PSD congress, at the same time Costa was speaking, many speakers were demanding that the PS should put on the table a possible support for a PSD minority government, an idea the Rui Rio, in an interview to RTP, agreed.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 19, 2021, 12:05:02 PM
The PSD congress has been quite calm with no major stories from it, but, for some reason, the media is saying that there's the possibility of Pedro Santana Lopes, mayor of Figueira da Foz, coming to the party's congress and make some kind of statement.

Santana and the PSD had a bitter dispute in Figueira da Foz.

Of course he didn't appear, but its' still interesting that the PSD still gets "butterflies in their stomach" every time Santana suggests he will pop up, even though everything he did in the last few years. Anyway.

PSD congress: Rui Rio says he's ready to be PM and labels the "geringonça" as a bad memory solution.


Quote
PSD leader regretted that the Government did not take advantage of the favorable economic situation to reduce public debt.

In his closing speech to the PSD delegates, in the party's congress, PSD leader Rui Rio said he's ready to govern and blamed the PS, and the leftwing parties" for the current crisis adding that the solution on the left is "exhausted" and is now of "bad memory". Rio went on by saying that the left parties don't propose anything for the future and only think in the present, and he trashed the Socialist's management of the last 6 years. Rio trashed their management on Education, NHS, Economy and the bailouts to Novo Banco and TAP airlines. Rio proposed "reforms without revolution", on Education, where he promissed valorization of teaching careers and on the NHS a deeper articulation between public and private systems in order to give more and faster treatments to the population. On the Environment, Rio said the fight against Climate Change is the biggest battle ahead of us, and Rio proposed a decentralized plan involving local government that would persue the reduction of polluting emissions, less cars and more green spaces in urban areas. Rio closed his speech with a Churchill quote and that the Portugal of the 21st century has to be as great as its nine centuries history.

In reaction to the speech, the PS says that Rio is aligning himself with the rightwing but refused to respond if the PS is willing to support a PSD minority government in the sake of stability. PCP said Rio's speech was "populist" and warned of the approximation between PS and PSD in "central Bloc of interests". CDS says their willing to govern with the PSD, while IL said that even though they don't see a reformist approach in the PSD, they are willing to negotiate with them. BE and CHEGA were invited to the congress but didn't showed up.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 19, 2021, 07:10:41 PM
Party lists: The Liberals presented their lists on Saturday, on Porto city:

Liberal Initiative (IL) (https://iniciativaliberal.pt/candidatos-da-iniciativa-liberal-eleicoes-legislativas-2022/)

Azores: Pedro Ferreira
Aveiro: Cristiano Santos
Beja: Ana Paula Pereira
Braga: Rui Rocha
Braganza: Teresa Aguiar
Castelo Branco: Diogo Oliveira
Coimbra: Orlando Monteiro da Silva, IL's candidate for Vila Nova de Gaia city in 2021;
Évora: Maria Cabral
Faro: Cláudia Vasconcelos
Guarda: Ângelo Videira dos Santos
Leiria: Dário Rafael Florindo
Lisbon: João Cotrim Figueiredo, IL leader and current MP;
Madeira: Duarte Gouveia, IL's candidate for Funchal city in 2021;
Portalegre: Carlos Roquette
Porto: Carlos Guimarães Pinto, former IL leader 2018-19;
Santarém: Ana Rodrigues
Setúbal: Joana Cordeiro
Viana do Castelo: Ivone Marques
Vila Real: Joana Magalhães Ferreira
Viseu: Sérgio Lopes Figueiredo
Europe: Carolina Diniz
Outside Europe: Nuno Garoupa

Of the parties represented in Parliament, only PAN will not run in all districts. This Monday, 20 December, will be the deadline for parties/coalitions to present their lists in the courts. On Tuesday, the Courts will draw the lists in the ballots. The ballot order will be different in each of the 22 districts.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on December 20, 2021, 11:48:48 AM
Oh lol. I thought that 15 debates for the last presidential election were weird, but I guess I had seen nothing yet. Congratulations to Portuguese TV networks for creating something that looks more like a sports league calendar than anything.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 20, 2021, 01:22:46 PM
Oh lol. I thought that 15 debates for the last presidential election were weird, but I guess I had seen nothing yet. Congratulations to Portuguese TV networks for creating something that looks more like a sports league calendar than anything.

It's a bit insane, in fact. Even the networks admit it's to much, but parties are always complaining, especially the smaller ones. Like I said in a few posts before, this model worked fine when there were just 4 or 5 parties in Parliament, but now it's just, yeah, ridiculous. The majority of people will only hear from the majority of the debates in the highlights of the 1pm or 8pm news. The debate model needs to change, maybe to, I don't know, insted of having one-on-one debates, having 3 or 4 parties debating, like two from the right versus two from the left, or something.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: xelas81 on December 20, 2021, 01:42:04 PM
Do party leaders have to show up debates or could the parties send someone else representing them?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 20, 2021, 02:42:44 PM
Do party leaders have to show up debates or could the parties send someone else representing them?

When there's a coalition, in some debates, someone else other than the coalition leader can appear. In 2015, for example, Paulo Portas represented the PSD/CDS coalition in some debates, the leader was Pedro Passos Coelho. But overall, it's basically mandatory otherwise it would give a bad image to that leader and that party.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 20, 2021, 07:16:14 PM
Do party leaders have to show up debates or could the parties send someone else representing them?

When there's a coalition, in some debates, someone else other than the coalition leader can appear. In 2015, for example, Paulo Portas represented the PSD/CDS coalition in some debates, the leader was Pedro Passos Coelho. But overall, it's basically mandatory otherwise it would give a bad image to that leader and that party.

Now that you mentioned, in fact, there is already an issue about the debates: PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, will only appear in the main network debates and not in the news channels debates. (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/jeronimo-participa-apenas-nos-debates-televisivos-em-canal-aberto)

PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa will only attend the two one-on-one debates next January. Jerónimo will, therefore, only debate the PS and PSD leaders on TVI on 4 January and on SIC on 12 January. He will also attend the all party debate on 17 January. In the rest of the debates between CDU and other parties, all of them in the news channels of the main networks, SIC Notícias, RTP3 and CNN Portugal, the Communists will not be represented. They accuse the networks of not ensuring "impartiality" and of creating first rate parties, PS and PSD, and then second rate parties. They refuse taking part in debates with low ratings and will not be "understated". Looking back to 2019, the exact same thing happened, I just didn't remember it.

So, the number of debates could be reduced if indeed CDU goes ahead with their position, from the current 36 one-on-one debates, to 29. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2021, 12:08:42 PM
Left Bloc (BE) unveils their election manifesto: (https://observador.pt/2021/12/21/bloco-atira-contra-falta-de-clareza-do-ps-e-pede-novo-ciclo-com-programa-de-esquerda-para-quatro-anos/)


Quote
Bloco fires at the PS's “lack of clarity” and asks for a “new cycle” with a left-wing program for four years

The BE leader, Catarina Martins, unveiled this Tuesday, 21 December, the party's election manifesto for the 30 January general elections. The main policies of BE are focused on the NHS and salaries. Catarina Martins also accused the PS of "lack of vision", and criticized Costa for opening the door for deals with the PSD, adding that they will fight for a true 4 year deal on the left and that their goal is to block the rightwing to form a government. Overall, BE's main policies are the following:

- Creation of a program to fight against informal work;
- Removal of all labour laws approved during the Troika years;
- More funding to the NHS;
- Approval of the exclusivity of doctors and nurses in the NHS;
- Reinforcement of the NHS taking into account the aging population of the country;
- Reinforcement of social supports;
- Creation of a National Care Service, public net for child, elderly and disable care;
- Investments in fighting climate change and focus on public transportation;
- Increase of the minimum wage by 10%;
- Fight against the excessive energy rents;
- Expansion of IRS tax on cryptocurrencies;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2021, 03:31:14 PM
Victory for the government as the EU approves the TAP airlines bailout, but with some more harsh measures:


Quote
Brussels gives 'green light' to TAP's restructuring plan but imposes remedies

The EU has approved, this Tuesday, the TAP airlines restructuring plan but imposed additional measures. The plan itself will cost almost 3 billion euros and the EU is forcing TAP to give up 18 slots per day to other airlines and to sell or close several sister companies, like Portugália for example. The EU says the company is viable in the long hall. The TAP debate divides the country, and the government defended the plan strongly, saying that with no plan, TAP would close. This is specially a victory for minister Pedro Nuno Santos, who headed the negotiations, and who is Costa's "foe" in the PS. The minister says this is a historic day for TAP airlines and the country, adding that the government's work in now done. It's expected that during the implementation of the plan, TAP will be privatized and Lufthansa or Air France are the preferred companies by the government.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 23, 2021, 06:06:54 AM
Parties/coalitions running in the 30 January 2022 general elections:  (https://www.cne.pt/news/ar-2022-sorteio-das-candidaturas_7282)

Districts running; Abbreviation; Name; Ideology

  7 A - Alliance, center-right
13 ADN - National Democratic Alternative, center (former PDR)
22 BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
20 CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right (only in mainland Portugal and overseas)
22 CH - CHEGA, far-right
22 E - Rise Up, far-right (former PNR)
22 IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right
  6 JPP - Together for the People, center
22 L - Livre, center-left
22 MAS - Socialist Alternative Movement, far-left
22 MPT - Earth Party, center-right
  9 NC - We, the Citizens, center-right
22 PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
22 PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing
  9 PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party, far-left/maoism
20 PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right (only in mainland Portugal and overseas)
  1 PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - Coalition "Democratic Alliance", center-right (only in Azores)
  1 PPD/PSD.CDS-PP - Coalition "Madeira First", center-right (only in Madeira)
  1 PPM - People's Monarchist Party, right-wing (only in Madeira)
22 PS - Socialist Party, center-left
16 PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left
22 RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic
19 VP - Volt Portugal, center-left

Rejected by the Courts:

19 PPM.PURP - Coalition "We are Together", center to rightwing - Rejected because of irregularities in signatures and for not issuing a response to the Court at the time required by law;

Party budgets for the election campaign:  (https://www.tribunalconstitucional.pt/tc/contas_eleicoes-ar.html#1103)

2,450,000€ PS
2,055,000€ PSD (includes coalitions in Madeira and Azores)
   695,000€ CDU
   610,053€ BE
   500,000€ CHEGA
   385,000€ IL
   350,000€ CDS
   228,340€ PAN
     50,000€ JPP
     50,000€ NC
     48,000€ Livre
     26,000€ Volt Portugal
       2,000€ PCTP/MRPP
          200€ PTP
              0€ MPT

7,449,593€ Total

*Some parties have yet to publish their campaign budgets.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 23, 2021, 03:28:44 PM
CHEGA unveils their manifesto for the general elections: (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/chega-apresenta-programa-eleitoral-as-legislativas-de-30-de-janeiro_v1372394)


Quote
Chega proposes a single IRS tax, life imprisonment and immigrant quotas

CHEGA leader, André Ventura, presented today, 23 December, the party's election manifesto for the 30 January general elections. The event happened in Loures city, where Ventura's political career really took off, and the manifesto has the slogan that Ventura said in the party congress in Viseu, last November: "God, Fatherland, Family and Work". Overall, the manifesto has 8 pages and focuses on 14 topics from economics to health, education and immigration. The main policies are the following:

- Fiscal reform that will abolish the municipal housing tax (IMI) and the creation of single IRS tax rate;
- Creation of a guaranteed minimum pension;
- Corporate tax reduction;
- Aggravation of penalties for corruption crimes and also for crimes of rape and sexual abuse of minors;
- Reinstatement of life imprisonment for crimes of murder, terrorism and sexual nature;
- Creation of a Ministry of Family;
- Creation of quotas for immigrants in Portugal;
- Increase supervision regarding the gypsy community;
- Reversal of all positive discrimination policies covering minorities;
- NHS reform with integration of public and private services;
- Impose reinforcement of police authority;
- Reforms in the Education system to increase the authority of schools and teachers;
- 45% cut in number of political jobs;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 24, 2021, 12:36:45 PM
Usual predictable populist right sloganising, then.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on December 24, 2021, 01:50:14 PM
Usual predictable populist right sloganising, then.
Yes, it leapt out to me how generic these are too...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 26, 2021, 03:41:37 PM
Usual predictable populist right sloganising, then.
Yes, it leapt out to me how generic these are too...

And it's also interesting is how little coverage the manifesto presentation had. Anyway.

In other election updates: Parties are already putting campaign posters/billboards across the country:

PS - Socialist Party

Quote
Together We Follow and We Achieved

PSD - Social Democratic Party

Quote
Portugal needs a responsible government.

PAN - People's-Animals-Nature

Quote
For the people, for animals, for nature, Act, Now!

Livre (Free)

Quote
The alternative is to be Free


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 26, 2021, 06:18:54 PM
December 2021 local by-election results:

Ribeira parish (Terras do Bouro/Braga) by-election (https://www.publico.pt/2021/12/26/politica/noticia/autarquicas-psd-ganha-eleicoes-ribeira-terras-bouro-88-votos-1989959) - 26 December 2021, 230 registered voters: PSD hold

88.2% PSD, 7 seats
11.8% Blank/Invalid ballots

47.8% Turnout

Esqueiros, Nevogilde e Travassós parish (Vila Verde/Braga) by-election (https://www.cne.pt/news/resultados-eleitorais-af-de-esqueiros-nevogilde-e-travassos-vila-verdebraga_7278) - 12 December 2021, 880 registered voters: Independent hold

88.0% Independent, 7 seats
12.0% Blank/Invalid ballots

42.5% Turnout

Next local by-elections: 9 January 2022 - Touça parish (Vila Nova de Foz Côa/Guarda); 27 March 2022 - São Mamede de Ribatua parish (Alijó/Vila Real)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 26, 2021, 07:41:45 PM

Always interesting to see what parties put their leader front and center on their advertising, and which ones do not.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 27, 2021, 12:17:25 PM

Always interesting to see what parties put their leader front and center on their advertising, and which ones do not.

Some of the campaign billboards are still early. The PSD ones still don't have what seems to be their slogan for the elections, "New Horizons for Portugal". CDS has nothing yet, and, although the PS has what seems to be campaign posters in their website, I haven't seen them yet on the streets. Maybe they will start putting them this week.

The campaign is a bit on a break right now, because of the Christmas-New Years Eve holiday, and party leaders are not very active: Costa is on holiday, Rio is in isolation because of a Covid positive test in his close family, and the rest of party leaders are doing low profile events.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 27, 2021, 08:47:38 PM
CNN interview: Costa asks for an absolute majority but says that if he's defeated, he will leave the PS leadership.


Quote
António Costa wants an absolute majority, but he also admits the resurrection of deals on the left, once again defending that Cabrita left at the right time and maintains that he will resign if he doesn't win the elections. Exclusive interview tonight.

In a taped interview for CNN Portugal, PM Costa asked clearly for an absolute majority for the PS in the 30 January 2022 election. After spending weeks asking for a "strong and stable" majority, Costa now simply asks for an absolute majority, but also reopens the door for a possible deal with the left, after calling it "dead" a few weeks ago. Regarding his future if he loses the elections, he pressed that he will resign for his party's leadership and doesn't see any possibility of deals with the PSD of Rui Rio, saying that the election is a choice between him and Rio. He added that he can see Rui Rio as a PM, as well as Pedro Nuno Santos, his Minister of Infrastructure, as a PM.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 28, 2021, 07:01:11 PM
CNN interview: Rio refuses any talks with CHEGA, but is willing to talk with the other parties in order to form a stable government.


Quote
If there is no majority in the January 30 elections, the PSD president says he is available to negotiate. However, he leaves aside a partnership with Chega. See the exclusive interview here:

After PM Costa yesterday, it was Rui Rio's turn to be interview. In a CNN taped interview, Rio refused any talks with CHEGA, adding that he has no sympathy at all for André Ventura, but is open to talk with other parties to have a stable government, despite saying he's not a "negotiation expert". He stressed that his goal is to gain voters by the center, and said he doesn't want CHEGA voters as his objective is to prevent PSD voters leaving the party in favour of the far-right.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 29, 2021, 11:18:06 AM
CNN interview: Rio refuses any talks with CHEGA, but is willing to talk with the other parties in order to form a stable government.

In reaction to this interview, CHEGA leader André Ventura, said that Rio's real dream was to be leader of the Socialist Party (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/ventura-diz-que-rui-rio-gostava-era-de-ser-lider-do-partido-socialista-14446119.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter), adding that Rio position is "pitiful" and that he's despising CHEGA's electorate. However, Rio didn't hold back, and in a tweet he accused Ventura of having zero credibility: (https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1475934488572174341)

Quote
This is the same politician who says he would like to form a post-electoral government coalition with the PSD (with I don't know how many ministers from Chega) to free the country from socialism. Regardless of ideology, none of this can be taken seriously.

Rio also trashed Costa's statement that he proposed a two year government deal (https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1475783510485094406), saying that Costa is lying and distorting what he actually said.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 29, 2021, 03:22:13 PM
PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa will only attend the two one-on-one debates next January. Jerónimo will, therefore, only debate the PS and PSD leaders on TVI on 4 January and on SIC on 12 January. He will also attend the all party debate on 17 January. In the rest of the debates between CDU and other parties, all of them in the news channels of the main networks, SIC Notícias, RTP3 and CNN Portugal, the Communists will not be represented. They accuse the networks of not ensuring "impartiality" and of creating first rate parties, PS and PSD, and then second rate parties. They refuse taking part in debates with low ratings and will not be "understated". Looking back to 2019, the exact same thing happened, I just didn't remember it.

So, the number of debates could be reduced if indeed CDU goes ahead with their position, from the current 36 one-on-one debates, to 29. We'll see.

Number of debates reduced as debates between CDU leader Jerónimo de Sousa and other party leaders in the news networks of RTP, SIC ad TVI, are canceled.  (https://www.publico.pt/2021/12/29/politica/noticia/jeronimo-catarina-falham-frenteafrente-televisoes-1990219)

The updated list:

2 January: PS vs Livre (9PM on RTP1)
               BE vs CHEGA (10PM on SIC Notícias)

3 January: PSD vs CHEGA (9PM on SIC)
               BE vs CDU (10PM on CNN Portugal) Canceled

4 January: BE vs Livre (Afrer 6PM on SIC Notícias)
               PS vs CDU (9PM on TVI)
               CDS vs PAN (10PM on RTP3)

5 January: CDS vs IL (Afrer 6PM on RTP3)
               PSD vs BE (9PM on SIC)
               CHEGA vs Livre (10PM on CNN Portugal)

6 January: CDU vs Livre (Afrer 6PM on CNN Portugal) Canceled
               PS vs CHEGA (9 PM on RTP1)
               BE vs IL (10PM on SIC Notícias)

7 January: PSD vs CDS (9PM on TVI)
               CDU vs CHEGA (10PM on RTP3) Canceled

8 January: PS vs PAN (9PM on TVI)
               PSD vs Livre (10PM on RTP1)
               CDS vs CDU (11PM on CNN Portugal) Canceled

9 January: PS vs CDS (9PM on SIC)
               IL vs CHEGA (10PM on RTP3)
               PAN vs Livre (11PM on SIC Notícias)

10 January: BE vs PAN (After 6PM on RTP3)
                 PSD vs IL (9PM on SIC)
                 CDS vs Livre (10PM on CNN Portugal)

11 January: IL vs PAN (After 6PM on SIC Notícias)
                 PS vs BE (9PM on RTP1)
                 CDU vs PAN (10PM on CNN Portugal) Canceled

12 January: CDS vs CHEGA (After 6PM on CNN Portugal)
                 PSD vs CDU (9PM on SIC)
                 IL vs Livre (10PM on SIC Notícias)

13 January: PS vs PSD (9PM; Joint broadcast by RTP1, SIC and TVI)

14 January: PAN vs CHEGA (After 6PM on SIC Notícias)
                 PS vs IL (9PM on TVI)
                 BE vs CDS (10PM on RTP3)

15 January: PSD vs PAN (9PM on RTP1)
                 CDU vs IL (10PM on RTP3) Canceled

17 January: All party debate (9PM on RTP1)

18 January: Minor party's debate (9PM on RTP1)

20 January: All party debate (Antena 1, Renascença Radio, TSF)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 29, 2021, 06:24:38 PM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/eleicoes-legislativas/2021-12-29-Sondagem-SIC-Expresso-PS-vence-eleicoes-com-38-mas-reduz-vantagem-sobre-o-PSD-b7690e29)

Vote share %:

38% PS (-2)
31% PSD (+5)
   7% CHEGA (-3)
   6% CDU (nc)
   5% BE (nc)
   4% IL (+2)
   2% CDS (+1)
   2% PAN (nc)
   1% Others (-1)
  4% Blank/Invalid (-2)

Party leaders approval ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

5.8 António Costa (+0.4)
4.9 Rui Rio (+0.6)
4.2 Catarina Martins (+0.2)
3.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.2)
3.5 Inês Sousa Real (+0.3)
3.2 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (+0.1)
3.1 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.3 André Ventura (-0.3)

Poll conducted between 10 and 20 December 2021. Polled 901 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.30%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 30, 2021, 11:53:48 AM
2022 general election: Voting calendar.  (https://rr.sapo.pt/noticia/politica/2021/12/28/explicador-ja-estao-abertas-as-inscricoes-para-o-voto-antecipado/266234/)

- 27 December to 10 January: Prisoners and people hospitalized can registered to receive a ballot;
- 17 to 20 January: Ballot collection of people in jail or in hospital;
- 16 to 20 January: Early voting registration, by mail or online;
- 23 January: Early voting day, polls open from 8am to 7pm;
- 20 to 23 January: People infected or isolated because of Covid can register to receive a ballot;
- 25 and 26 January: Ballot collection of people infected or isolated because of Covid;
- 30 January: Election day, polls open from 8am to 7pm;
- 9 February: Deadline to receive overseas postal ballots postmarked with the date of 29 January;
- 9 February: Counting of overseas ballots;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on December 31, 2021, 11:06:42 AM
Early voting: Local governments will open more polling stations, amid no guidelines from the Electoral Commission.


Quote
Local authorities multiply the means to collect votes from those confined and facilitate early voting in the general election

Amid the growing cases of Omicron variant and with no guidelines from the Electoral Commission, several city halls, mainly in the big urban cities of Lisbon, Porto, Gaia and Sintra, are already planning more polling station for voters to vote early on 23 January, and will increase and reinforce the teams to collect the ballots of voters isolated because of the virus. Health officials believe that by the last week of the campaign, probably around 600,000 voters could be isolated. In Lisbon, Mayor Carlos Moedas announced that there will be 133 polling stations for early voting, in the 2021 Presidential elections there were 77, Porto will have 50, it had 30 in January 2021, Sintra 30 and Vila Nova de Gaia 42 polling stations for early voting. Other municipalities are also making the same plans.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 01, 2022, 04:00:48 PM
So, new year and the campaign is about to start.

Tomorrow, the first debates will start but only a few are worth watching. Here are my picks:

2 January:  BE vs CHEGA (10PM on SIC Notícias)

3 January: PSD vs CHEGA (9PM on SIC)

4 January: PS vs CDU (9PM on TVI)

6 January: PS vs CHEGA (9 PM on RTP1)

11 January: PS vs BE (9PM on RTP1)

12 January: PSD vs CDU (9PM on SIC)

13 January: PS vs PSD (9PM; Joint broadcast by RTP1, SIC and TVI)

14 January: PS vs IL (9PM on TVI)

17 January: All party debate (9PM on RTP1)

18 January: Minor party's debate (9PM on RTP1)

The rest of the debates are pretty much not that relevant, with very little at play.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 02, 2022, 12:42:00 PM
2022 election campaign: More party campaign posters/billboards across the country:

BE - Left Bloc

Quote
Health, Salary, Climate. Strong reasons, clear commitments.

CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition (PCP-PEV)

Quote
CDU, decisive force. By your side every day.

CH - CHEGA


Quote
On January 30th, we are going to make the system SHAKE

IL - Liberal Initiative


Quote
The only full deposit is the Government's. We pay 60% tax on each liter of gasoline


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 02, 2022, 07:19:11 PM
First debates: Costa "ignores" Livre, while Martins and Ventura faced off in a heated debate.

The first debate in the campaign, between the PS and Livre, was, as expected, uneventful. Costa spent most of his time ignoring Rui Tavares and only talking about Rui Rio (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/02/politica/noticia/costa-ignorou-rui-presente-dirigiuse-rui-ausente-1990554?ref=ps&cx=page__content). Tavares tried to say he's willing to support a PS government, but Costa didn't care, it's either me or Mr Rio, he said. Costa, in my opinion, summed up the debate by saying "a vote for Livre doesn't free us from the right".

The debate between BE and CHEGA was completely different, with a clear bad mood between both sides. When the moderator asked Ms Martins about possible post-election deals, she tried to run away from the question and started attacking Ventura's positions regarding corruption. In reply, Ventura said that Martins knows that BE will not be the 3rd largest party and pressed that he will only support a PSD government if CHEGA has government posts, but that he will also do everything in his power to prevent a PS government. Confused? Anyway, in response Martins attacked again Ventura regarding corruption and also used Pope Francis to criticize CHEGA's links to financial institutions and offshores. Ventura said he will be happy to fight and debate offshores and attacked Martins by saying that when she was performing plays as an actress, he was working as a tax inspector fighting against corruption.


Quote
André Ventura says that the “greatest fallacy” of the Left Bloc was not having supported the duplication of penalties for corruption.

The debate went on with both sides attacking each other policies on corruption. Ventura then attacked Martins regarding social supports (RSI) for poor families and of creating a credit line to help refugees families in Portugal, adding that there are people with 200 euros pensions in Portugal and that Martins "wants to give 700 euros, home and work to those who came from the Mediterranean with a mobile phone in their hand". Martins, in response, used Pope Francis words again, in which Ventura joked that Martins in now a "staunch Catholic". The debate ended with back and forward accusations because of Ventura's legal issues, in which Martins remembered Ventura's Court sentence of racism, and Ventura hold a photo of Mamadou Ba, a BE member and activist, accusing BE of being against the police forces.

Tomorrow, it's Rio vs Ventura.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Continential on January 02, 2022, 08:59:28 PM
Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 02, 2022, 09:35:34 PM
Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Estrella on January 02, 2022, 11:55:39 PM
What are Liberal Initiative voters like? I noticed they're as high as 5% in polls. At a glance, the party seems like a typical European liberal party like FDP or D66, with liberal positions on social issues, but are their voters like that too? Or are they basically far-right like various "libertarians" in Spanish-speaking countries?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 03, 2022, 07:38:16 AM
What are Liberal Initiative voters like? I noticed they're as high as 5% in polls. At a glance, the party seems like a typical European liberal party like FDP or D66, with liberal positions on social issues, but are their voters like that too? Or are they basically far-right like various "libertarians" in Spanish-speaking countries?

In general, and there's little info about IL voters as the party's results so far have been around 1-3% in all elections since 2019, but looking at polling data, the Liberal voters are more younger, well educated, and from urban areas. Overall, they are like the main liberal parties across Europe, however there are some situations where the party seems to appeal to "libertarians", like when last year they were criticized for holding a "sardinhada" in the Saint Anthony festival in Lisbon when Covid infections were rising, and on social media some IL members and supporters sometimes spread doubts about Covid vaccination (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/2021-12-28-dirigente-da-il-questiona-vacinacao-de-criancas-partilhando-mensagem-de-negacionista/), especially regarding children.

So, the party and its supporters look like an ordinary European liberal party, support for lower taxes, liberal social policies, less government intervention, but then has a hint of "libertarianism" in some of their supporters, in my view, which occasionally hurts the party in polls and creates even some tensions within the party.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 03, 2022, 03:06:26 PM
PS unveils their manifesto for the general elections: (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/antonio-costa-apresenta-o-programa-eleitoral-do-ps-para-as-legislativas-14457556.html)


Quote
Portugal - PS promises to raise the minimum wage to €900 by 2026

António Costa, presented this afternoon, the Socialist Party manifesto for the 30 January general elections. In a very simple manifesto, just 11 pages, the Socialists propose several policies that were in the 2022 draft budget, rejected by Parliament last October. In his speech, Costa asked for a stable majority in order to govern, remembering that many of the policies were rejected by a "negative coalition" in Parliament, thus stressing the need for a clear and stable outcome in this snap elections. The main policies are the following:

- Persue economic growth in order to converge with the EU;
- Debt reduction to 110% of GDP by 2026;
- Reforms in the recruitment regime for teachers and others;
- Expansion of Family Health Units in order to cover 80% of the population by 2026 and expansion of seniors healthcare in nursing homes;
- Reach 80% of green energy in the production of electricity by 2026;
- Free day care by 2024;
- Implement the Agenda for Dignified Labour by July 2022
- Discussion of new views to balance work and family life, like pondering a 4 day work week;
- Increase the share of wages in GDP to 48% by 2026;
- Increase of the minimum wage to 900 euros by 2026;
- Increase the share of exporting companies to 53% by 2026;
- Changes in IRS rates in order to reduce taxes for middle class families;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 03, 2022, 05:50:30 PM
Rio vs Ventura: Ventura is open to accept a PSD government if CHEGA is part of it, but Rio refuses power at any cost.


Quote
Legislative Elections 2022: Isn't this “who wants to marry the farmer”?

The Rio vs Ventura debate was focused, mainly, on what will happen after the elections. Rio refused any sort of coalition with CHEGA, adding that the party is "unstable" and trying to put pressure on Ventura if he will let the PSD govern or not. Ventura pressed that he will only accept a PSD government if CHEGA has cabinet posts, at the same time both Rio and Ventura agree that Costa has to be removed from power. How? It's still unclear. Very little policy was discussed and what was discussed was confusing. Regarding life imprisonment, Ventura pressured Rio on it, but Rio only laid out how the law is in some EU countries. Regarding pensions, Rio said he will not cut pensions, in which Ventura agreed. In the end, Rio said that it's up to Ventura to decide if he lets the PSD govern or not, while Ventura responded that the differences between PSD and CHEGA aren't political but in fact personal, and said that Rio's goal is to be deputy PM of Costa.

A note: After watching 3 debates, this format is ridiculous. 30 minutes debates, with basically each candidate just speaking 12 minutes, don't work and seem like a waste of time.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2022, 12:05:09 PM
The hot topic of today in the campaign: life imprisonment.

After the Rio vs Ventura debate where Ventura pressured Rio regarding life imprisonment, Rio said that he's against full life imprisonment, but highlighted the laws of Germany which has the possibility of renewal or not of the penalty. PM Costa and the PS are trashing Rio for suggesting he's open to discuss the return of life imprisonment in Portugal, which was already refuted by the PSD, via statement, in which they accuse the PS of "misrepresenting" the words of Rui Rio.

Rio also posted a tweet mocking Costa by saying that (https://observador.pt/2022/01/04/rui-rio-clarifica-e-contra-qualquer-modalidade-de-prisao-perpetua/) "If they continue to misrepresent what I say in this way, another week and Dr. António Costa may be accusing me of defending that women should wear a burka"

With so many problems in the country, the main topic of the day is this ::), when in reality, polling along the years shows that a pretty big chunk of the population is in favour of the return of life imprisonment for violent crimes.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on January 04, 2022, 04:03:17 PM
The hot topic of today in the campaign: life imprisonment.

After the Rio vs Ventura debate where Ventura pressured Rio regarding life imprisonment, Rio said that he's against full life imprisonment, but highlighted the laws of Germany which has the possibility of renewal or not of the penalty. PM Costa and the PS are trashing Rio for suggesting he's open to discuss the return of life imprisonment in Portugal, which was already refuted by the PSD, via statement, in which they accuse the PS of "misrepresenting" the words of Rui Rio.

Rio also posted a tweet mocking Costa by saying that (https://observador.pt/2022/01/04/rui-rio-clarifica-e-contra-qualquer-modalidade-de-prisao-perpetua/) "If they continue to misrepresent what I say in this way, another week and Dr. António Costa may be accusing me of defending that women should wear a burka"

With so many problems in the country, the main topic of the day is this ::), when in reality, polling along the years shows that a pretty big chunk of the population is in favour of the return of life imprisonment for violent crimes.

Maybe it's the American in me, but I'm much more outraged by the fact that prison sentences are sometimes so low for horrible crimes in Portugal. Seems like the PS' line of attack on this might fall short...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 04, 2022, 05:50:02 PM
Maybe it's the American in me, but I'm much more outraged by the fact that prison sentences are sometimes so low for horrible crimes in Portugal. Seems like the PS' line of attack on this might fall short...

Exactly, this attack on the matter itself is a bit worthless, IMO, especially, like you pointed, that prison sentences and rulings in Portugal are, more often than not, very soft and create disappointment.

But this attack, in my view, is just a small part of a more wider attack the PS may throw at the PSD: the possible support of CHEGA to a PSD government. In the debate, both Rio and Ventura rejected a coalition, but besides that, things may be open. The PS will probably attack by accusing the PSD of becoming "radical", and that they (PS) are the only safe and moderate bet. But of course this line of attack can also hit the PS, because the PSD has already said they are willing to let the PS govern if Costa wins and have challenged the PS to answer what will they do in the scenario of a PSD win. And the PS response has been an uncomfortable silence as Costa says that he will resign if he loses, basically giving the PS to Pedro Nuno Santos who wants a "Geringonça 2.0", and will most likely block at every chance a possible PSD minority government. Meaning, and some PS pundits have warned about this, the PS could "force" the PSD to negotiate with CHEGA. The PS campaign so far is "give us a strong and stable majority", but what will they do if they don't have one or even lose, it's unclear, sort of.

Adding to this, there were 3 debates today: BE vs Livre; PS vs CDU; CDS vs PAN

- The BE vs Livre debate was uneventful, with the most interesting moment of the debate was when Catarina Martins, BE leader, said that Costa was an obstacle to a leftwing deal. (https://observador.pt/2022/01/04/com-simpatia-q-b-catarina-e-rui-juntaram-se-para-discutir-como-se-ultrapassa-o-obstaculo-costa/)

- The PS vs CDU debate was, well, a good one, as real policy was actually discussed, but Jerónimo de Sousa was the clear loser as he was unable to respond to Costa's attacks (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/antonio-costa/jeronimo-de-sousa/costa-sem-confianca-noutra-geringonca-critica-irresponsabilidade-do-pcp-jeronimo-quer-negociar-e-dispensa-futurologia/20520104/61d4be950cf2cc58e7db20a8). Costa accused the leftwing parties of creating an unnecessary crisis, and that it's now clear that only a strong PS majority can give stability. Jerónimo tried to maintain the door open for possible deals, but with little trust from Costa.

- The CDS vs PAN showed a very "energetic" Chicão against a very low profile Inês Sousa Real. The debate centered a lot around farming and the environment. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/legislativas-divergencias-entre-cds-pp-e-pan-espelhadas-em-debate-na-rtp3_v1374566) The CDS leader attacked heavily PAN for being a "a radical animalist party" who wants to destroy rural life as we know it. Sousa Real refuted the attacks and said the attack against her farming deals are "leaded" by agriculture associations. Rodrigues dos Santos defended the privatization of public transportation, while Sousa Real doesn't agree with a carbon tax in 2022 because of the economic crisis.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 05, 2022, 06:22:30 PM
Today's debates: IL vs CDS; PSD vs BE and Livre vs CHEGA. A quick summary:

- IL vs CDS: A tense debate between the two parties on the right (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/05/politica/cronica/cruzada-familia-1990907?ref=hp&cx=latest_news_a_v2--496639). CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, accused IL of being "leftwing" on everything besides the economy, which received a response from IL leader Cotrim Figueiredo that the CDS leader is a "young man with old man ideas". Both rejected deals with CHEGA, while on economics CDS accused IL of being too radical and of wanting to privatize everything.

- PSD vs BE: A calm debate between two sides that don't agree on anything. (https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/o-be-quer-acabar-com-os-ricos-eu-quero-acabar-com-os-pobres-afirma-rio-catarina-martins-responde-que-psd-facilitou-despedimentos-baratos-827574) Rio was first asked about the controversy of the day, life imprisonment, and he said he's against, while Catarina Martins accused Rio of "normalizing" the far-right. Regarding the economy, Rio accused BE of a policy of tax, tax, tax, defending that economic growth has to come from productivity of businesses and not spending. Martins trashed Rio proposal saying they would destroy the country. The minimum wage was also a topic with Rio warning that the gap between the average and minimum wage is being erased and it's a problem, while Martins blames the PSD for bad labour laws. Regarding the NHS, Rio wants more cooperation between private and public hospitals and said that when millions of people have private health insurance, something is wrong. Martins accused Rio of seeing Healthcare as a business and that Rio wants to "give" the NHS to the private sector.

- Livre vs CHEGA: The debate started with Livre's proposal of UBI and Ventura refused that policy saying this policy would create job vacancies (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/rui-tavares/andre-ventura/rendimento-universal-junta-socrates-e-salgado-ao-debate-livre-chega-joacine-foi-o-fantasma-de-servico/20520105/61d623d10cf2cc58e7db6310) as no one would want to find work, and accused Livre of an irresponsible policy. Tavares accused Ventura of several inconsistencies and trashed his economic policies. Ventura said the Tavares shouldn't be on the debates as Livre doesn't have MPs anymore and raised the "Joacine affair". Taveres raised the issue of corruption and "threw" at Ventura's face his links with the former Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, who is accused of corruption.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 07, 2022, 06:44:50 AM
Yesterday's debates: PS vs CHEGA and BE vs IL. A summary:

- PS vs CHEGA: Costa and Ventura faced in a highly expected debate. The final result was a bit of a disappointment. (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/06/politica/cronica/noite-costa-preocupou-humano-ventura-1991040?ref=hp&cx=latest_news_a_v2--496639) Costa started the debate attacking Ventura's position regarding Covid vaccines, but not answering the question of the possible issue of 600,000 voters being barred from voting because of Covid confinements. Ventura did a "flip flop" and announced he will take the vaccine and criticized Costa's handling of the pandemic and of the NHS. Costa then trashed Ventura's proposal of a IRS flat tax, saying it's unfair, and Ventura had real difficulty in explaining it. The final part of debate was dominated by corruption. Costa accused Ventura of skipping key votes about corruption in Parliament, while Ventura "threw" at Costa "the Sócrates card", plus other several other controversies that created a bit of a shouting match between both.

- BE vs IL: A calm a debate, but where real policies were discussed, quite rare in this marathon of debates. (https://observador.pt/2022/01/07/o-bloqueio-da-modernidade-enfrentou-o-irresponsavel-libertario-acabaram-a-discutir-um-pais-diferente/) The debate started with Cotrim Figueiredo defending his proposal of a flat IRS tax, which as criticized by Martins was a hand out to the rich. Figueiredo was also pressured about IL's votes against the States of Emergency during 2020 and 2021 and Catarina Martins trashed IL by calling them irresponsible. Regarding the minimum wage, Figueiredo said he's against the existence of a minimum wage. Regarding the NHS, Figueiredo accused BE of not wanting to modernize the Health system and that is a hand out to the private sector, while Martins said that reinforcement of the NHS has to cost "what ever it takes". The debate ended with Education and Martins trashed IL's policies of freedom of choice in terms of picking a school, which Figueiredo failed to answer.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 07, 2022, 01:21:26 PM
PSD reveals its election manifesto: (https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/01/07/psd-promete-alivio-de-800-milhoes-no-irs-e-quer-baixar-irc-para-17/)


Quote
PSD wants to lower IRC rate to 17% in 2024

Rui Rio, PSD leader, presented this afternoon the party's manifesto for the elections. Called "New horizons for Portugal", the document has more than 160 pages and covers policies from Fiscal to the NHS and Climate Change. Rio, in his speech, said that the difference between him and the PS is that he will value "rigor and less ease" and that he will go to government no to "unravel" but to plan and act, adding for people to "trust him". The main policies are the following:

- Corporate tax reduction from 21% to 17% by 2024;
- 800 million euros tax cut in 2025 and 2026;
- Reduction of housing tax (IMI) from 0.3% to 0.25%;
- Reduction of VAT of restaurants to 6% until 2023;
- Reduction of bureaucracy in public services;
- Increase of links between Universities and businesses;
- Increase of parental leave from 20 to 26 weeks after the second child;
- Creation of a nationwide net of public kindergartens;
- Health plan for all children until 5 years old;
- Double the number university student residences by 2026;
- Reorganize the NHS with a strong bet on digitalization;
- Guarantee a family doctor for each Portuguese;
- Increase NHS support for oral and mental care;
- Reform of Courts with focus on the creation on special courts to deal with insolvencies;
- Creation of local plans for decarbonization and reward the best municipalities;
- Creation of incentives for business to be environment sustainable;
- Program to fight energy poverty, incentives for more green spaces in cities and increase protection of biodiversity;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 07, 2022, 03:12:26 PM
UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/legislativas-2022-sondagem-aponta-para-vitoria-socialista-com-38-dos-votos_n1375305)

Vote share %:

38% PS (-1)
32% PSD (+2)
  6% CDU (+1)
   6% BE (-1)
   5% CHEGA (nc)
   5% IL (nc)
   2% PAN (-1)
   2% CDS (nc)
   1% Livre (+1)
   3% Others/Invalid (-1)

Preferred PM:

52% António Costa
33% Rui Rio
15% Undecided

Poll conducted between 28 December 2021 and 5 January 2022. Polled 1,238 voters. MoE of 2.80%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 07, 2022, 07:52:23 PM
Today's debates: PSD vs CDS and IL vs PAN.

- PSD vs CDS: A serene debate between both parties that have very little differences (https://observador.pt/2022/01/07/rio-o-irmao-mais-velho-voltou-e-ofereceu-ao-francisco-avioes-e-um-bilhete-para-o-governo/) and are willing to form a coalition after the elections. The debate started with Rio explaining why PSD and CDS didn't formed a coalition, while "Chicão" said that Rio made a bad decision and was aligning himself with the PS. Rio responded by saying that he's the only one who can defeat the PS and that voters who don't like Costa should vote for him. In terms of policies, the main difference was on Euthanasia, as with taxes and the privatization of TAP airlines both were in the same page. Rio said that the PSD is against Euthanasia, but his personal position is different as the PSD has a proud history of "freedom of thinking". Rodrigues dos Santos defended that CDS is the party of life.

- IL vs PAN: Inês Sousa Real started the debate by defending environment policies are crucial (https://observador.pt/2022/01/07/cotrim-figueiredo-e-sousa-real-so-ha-governo-comum-sem-big-brother-do-carapau/), while Figueiredo said that economic growth needs to align with environment policies, but attacked PAN for being a "prohibitionist" party, for wanting to go too fast in terms of the transition to a green economy. PAN leader accused IL of being "negationist" which was refused by Figueiredo. Regarding the NHS, Sousa Real wants a universal healthcare system and accused IL of wanting to privatize the NHS. IL leader refused the claim, but pressed that the current system isn't working and has a lot of problems. IL also said they are willing to work with PAN in a government deal, if they drop ideas like video surveillance on fishing boats. Sousa Real said the idea is to preserve species.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 08, 2022, 11:08:14 AM
UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper on policy issues:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/sondagem-catolica-intervencao-do-estado-na-tap-divide-portugueses_v1375401)

Priorities for the next government:

43% Invest more in the NHS
24% Cut taxes
16% Increase wages
13% Reform the Justice system
  4% Others/Undecided

Opinion of the Government's plan to bailout TAP airlines:

50% Against
41% In Favour
  9% Undecided

Construction of the new airport of Lisbon:

48% Against
39% In Favour
13% Undecided

Poll conducted between 28 December 2021 and 5 January 2022. Polled 1,238 voters. MoE of 2.80%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 08, 2022, 06:02:15 PM
Today's debates: PSD vs Livre and PS vs PAN.

- PSD vs Livre: A debate by distance, as Rio was in Porto city and Tavares in Lisbon. (https://observador.pt/2022/01/08/o-debate-entre-ruis-que-ate-queriam-estar-perto-fisicamente-mas-distantes-nas-ideias/) It was a very calm debate, with Rio defending his policies of tax cuts, and with Tavares saying that the PSD is proposing a miracle. There were clear differences in the topic of the minimum wage, with Rio proposing to attach the wage growth with inflation and productivity, and Tavares proposed a 6% increase that, by 2026, will put the minimum wage at 1,000 euros. Rio also criticized Livre's policy of a Universal basic income (UBI).

- PS vs PAN: As the PSD vs Livre debate was ending, the PS vs PAN debate was starting on TVI. (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/08/politica/cronica/ps-vs-pan-sao-precisos-dois-dancar-tango-par-1991243) The debate started with Costa highlighting that PAN didn't force an early election, and PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, also pressed on that point. She then defended a Universal basic income (UBI), corporate tax cuts, and cut in income taxes. Costa said he's open to discuss those policies with PAN. However, both clashed on the controversial topic of lithium exploration in Portugal, with Sousa Real criticizing the shady deals between the government and companies, and Costa defending that lithium exploration is good for the economy and that every project is subject to environment reports. Regarding the new Lisbon airport, Costa defended the Montijo option, while PAN criticized it adding that in 30 years, the airport will be under water because of rising sea levels, and said that Beja Airport, 193 km/120 miles from Lisbon, is a good alternative, which Costa labeled as ludicrous.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 08, 2022, 07:26:14 PM
CDS and IL presented their election manifestos:

The Liberals (IL) and CDS-PP, presented, this Saturday afternoon, their election manifestos. The Liberal presented 100 policies for the next parliamentary term that go from tax cuts, public investments and privatizations. CDS, in their manifesto, called "The Right right, for the same reasons as always", proposes several policies from, also, tax cuts to liberty of choice in education: The main policies of each party are the following:

Liberal Initiative (IL) (https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/01/08/liberais-dao-prioridade-ao-crescimento-corte-de-impostos-e-privatizacoes/)

- Corporate tax cut to 15% from the current 21%;
- Creation of a flat IRS tax;
- Creation of a new Basic Health Law;
- NHS reform creating a mix system with private and public hospitals;
- Freedom of choice to pick a hospital and encourage competition between hospitals;
- Privatization of TAP airlines;
- Plus, privatization of the public bank Caixa Geral de Depósitos and RTP;
- Social Security reform with the elimination of Single Social Tax;
- Electoral reform with the creation of a mix system of FPTP with proportional representation;

CDS-People's Party (CDS-PP) (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/cds-quer-mais-nove-mil-efetivos-nas-forcas-de-seguranca-e-pgr-nomeado-pelo-parlamento-14473615.html)

- Term limits for MPs, a maximum of 3 terms;
- Hiring more 9,000 officers for the security forces;
- Reversal of the extinction of SEF, the former boarder control agency;
- Stop the legalization of euthanasia;
- Creation of a winter pension supplement to help elderly people pay energy costs;
- Creation of a "caregiver voucher" for people who take care of elderly people in their homes;
- IRS tax cut for each additional child and increase in family allowance for those that earn less than 27,500 euros per year;
- Corporate tax reduction to 15% by 2026;
- 30% cut in the fuel tax;
- Creation of a "Green way health" for patients who cannot be treated in the public system, be treated in a private hospital;
- Privatization of TAP airlines;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 09, 2022, 09:57:34 AM
2022 local by-elections: By-election today on Touça parish, Vila Nova de Foz Côa, Guarda.  (https://terrasdabeira.gmpress.pt/freguesia-da-touca-em-foz-coa-volta-hoje-a-votos-apos-dois-empates-nas-autarquicas/)

After two ties between the PS and PSD, since the 26 September local election, voters in Touça parish, Vila Nova de Foz Côa, will head for the polls for a 3rd time to elect a new parish assembly. 240 voters are registered to vote. On the 26 September, PS and PSD got each 72 votes, and one week later, another tie with 75 votes for both parties. The PSD controls the parish since 2005.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 09, 2022, 03:24:01 PM
Touça parish by-election: PS gain from PSD (https://noticiasdocentro.pt/taca-e-touca-ps-82-psd-80/)

Vote share %: (compared with the 26 September result)

47.7% PS (+0.5), 4 seats
46.5% PSD (-0.7), 3
  5.8% Blank/Invalid ballots (+0.1)

71.7% Turnout

The PS won by just a 2 vote difference: 82 ballots for the PS, 80 for the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 09, 2022, 04:15:45 PM
I seem to pleasantly notice a decline in CHEGA's polling now that we are actually very close to the election; is this real? I presume it is related to the apparent PSD surge.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on January 09, 2022, 05:34:40 PM
The PSD's platform is quite moderate it seems


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 09, 2022, 05:54:40 PM
I seem to pleasantly notice a decline in CHEGA's polling now that we are actually very close to the election; is this real? I presume it is related to the apparent PSD surge.

Well, it's clear that PS and PSD are campaigning hard for tactical voting on the right and on the left, and this is hurting CHEGA, as on the left it's hurting BE, CDU and PAN. The PSD surge is hurting CHEGA as voters who want to defeat Costa, know that only the PSD can do that, and maybe Rio's "dance" in issues like life imprisonment and social supports, may be a way to hold on to these voters without scaring more moderate voters, plus, Ventura has been also losing a bit of steam in the debates and his tone doesn't seem that effective, specially when he's pressed about his platform. However, there could be a "shy CHEGA vote" out there which pollsters could be missing, as some voters could be embarrassed to say they will vote CHEGA. But, so far, the trend seems to be a concentration of the vote of the right in the PSD, thus hurting CHEGA and CDS, IL at a lesser extent, and the leftwing vote on the PS.

To point also that mobilization is crucial for both sides: the right is pretty energized as they see a path to defeat Costa, and the left seems to be suspicious between each other. Plus, there is the problem of voting will work on election day because of the people confined because of Covid, which could create fears in parts of the electorate or depress turnout if not well managed. A decision on this matter is expected during this week.

The PSD's platform is quite moderate it seems

It's quite similar to their 2019 platform. The main differences between PS and PSD seems to be taxes and the NHS, curiously the two most important issues for voters according to the RTP poll.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 09, 2022, 07:37:27 PM
Today's debates: PS vs CDS; IL vs CHEGA and PAN vs Livre.

- PS vs CDS: A debate very focused on ideology (https://observador.pt/2022/01/09/a-miss-mundo-com-pose-de-estado-contra-um-genero-que-nao-larga-a-ideologia/). The debate started with the NHS situation with Costa saying that is not by "skimming" the NHS that it will become stronger, highlighting the new Basic Healthcare Law that, according to him, has a good balance between public and private. Rodrigues dos Santos remembered Costa of the bad state of the NHS, of the more than 1 million people without a family doctor and the big waiting lines for surgeries and consults in the NHS. Costa didn't gave a timetable to solve the family doctors situation, while Rodrigues dos Santos defended that patients that cannot be treated in a public hospital should be treated in a private hospital. The discussion then went to Gender ideology, with CDS leader saying that gender ideology in classrooms is "totalitarism". Costa responded by saying that plurality values need to be respected and though at schools. The final topic was taxes, with Rodrigues dos Santos trashing the big tax burden of Costa's government, and Costa attacking by saying that CDS policies help more the families with means rather those that do not.

- IL vs CHEGA: Ventura was, here, completely defeated. (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/ventura-vs-cotrim-o-martelo-pneumatico-nao-passou-do-principe-real-notas-e-analises-dos-comentadores-expresso/) Ventura started by accusing PSD, CDS and IL of forging an "arrangement" in order to put CHEGA on the side, and labeled IL as the "party of the privileged". Cotrim responded by trashing Ventura for not being trustworthy and of losing steam. Clearly upset, Ventura accused IL of not caring about Portugal and pointed to IL's policies on light drugs. Then, Cotrim Figueiredo demolished CHEGA's platform for just having 9 pages and that high school papers have more content than CHEGA's manifesto. Ventura tried to discuss issues like life imprisonment but Cotrim Figueiredo refused to discuss "fait divers". The debate ended with Ventura trashing Rio for being a puppet of Costa, while Cotrim Figueiredo said that Rio could be a good PM.

- PAN vs Livre: A debate with very little to highlight. (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/ines-de-sousa-real/rui-tavares/acordo-a-direita-pecuaria-e-homeopatia-dividem-tavares-e-sousa-real-nenhum-quer-o-rotulo-de-negacionista/20520109/61db76530cf2c7ea0f122e22) Tavares, Livre leader, praised PAN's posture in the 2022 budget vote. Inês Sousa Real said that PAN is a responsible party that wants to create bridges and is willing to talk to either the PS or PSD after 30 January. Tavares pressed that only the left has solution for the environment, while Sousa Real said that left is in denial regarding the impact of cattle raising on climate change. Regarding a Universal basic income, Tavares pressed on the project, while Sousa Real didn't find it important and pressed on tax cuts for families and corporate tax cuts.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2022, 06:28:14 AM
Yesterday's debates: PAN vs BE; PSD vs IL and CDS vs Livre

- PAN vs BE: Both leaders clashed regarding a possible PAN support for a PSD government. (https://visao.sapo.pt/atualidade/politica/legislativas2022/2022-01-10-debate-legislativas-ines-sousa-real-acusa-be-de-abrir-a-porta-a-extrema-direita-catarina-martins-admite-trabalhar-com-o-pan-mas-exige-lhe-clareza/) During the debate, Catarina Martins tried to force PAN to reject any deals with the PSD, because, Martins said, the right doesn't have solutions regarding the environment, but Inês Sousa Real refused to drop that and pressed for tax cuts. In the rest, there were similar talking points: Minimum wage increase, environment policies. However, Martins criticized PAN's UBI policy as "delusional".

- PSD vs IL: It was more like a "conversation" rather than a debate on which points PSD and IL could negotiate a future government deal. (https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/01/10/il-e-um-parceiro-com-o-qual-psd-facilmente-se-entendera-diz-rio/) Rio started the debate by saying that PSD and IL have in common the will to defeat socialism, but that there are differences between both parties. Cotrim Figueiredo said that IL and PSD are on the same page on the "prognostic" of the country but said that the PSD is too soft. On taxes, Rio criticized IL's flat tax rate proposal labeling it as unfair, while Cotrim Figueiredo tried to explain it. On privatizations, IL leader defended the privatization of RTP and Caixa Geral de Depósitos public bank, while Rio rejected as both give a public service and are, currently, giving profit, he said. On the NHS, Figueiredo pressed on IL's freedom of choice to pick any hospital, while Rio defended that the public option should have priority and only when the NHS doesn't respond should the state pay treatments in private hospitals. In the end, Rio said that the PSD could easily get along with IL, while Cotrim Figueiredo is also open to support a PSD government.

- CDS vs Livre: Rui Tavares and Rodrigues dos Santos clashed in a very ideological debate. (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/cds-pp/livre/rui-tavares-encontrou-a-melhor-cura-para-a-prisao-perpetua-mas-francisco-rodrigues-dos-santos-avancou-pelo-joacinismo/20420110/61dcbc550cf2c7ea0f126144) Rodrigues dos Santos started by criticizing Livre's UBI policy, calling it "fiscal pornography". Tavres responded by joking that "fiscal pornography" seems to be a term Rodrigues dos Santos likes a lot. The CDS leader also labeled some Livre policies, like limiting bonuses in companies, as "pure communism", while Tavares criticized CDS's obsession with gender ideology, and also criticized CDS's support for bullfighting. Rodrigues dos Santos responded with the criticisms of former Livre's MP Joacine Katar Moreira regarding Portugal's colonial past, and accused Livre of canceling Portugal's history. Tavares responded by saying he's not canceling Portugal's past and that he's proud to have written about Portugal's history as a historian.

Also, Jerónimo de Sousa, CDU leader, will be substituted by João Oliveira, Lisbon councillor, or João Ferreira, PCP caucus leader, (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/legislativas-jeronimo-operado-de-urgencia-e-substituido-por-joao-oliveira-e-joao-ferreira-na-campanha) tomorrow in the debate between PCP and Rui Rio because he will undergo emergency surgery tomorrow. They will also substitute Mr Jerónimo while he's in hospital recovering:


Quote
Jerónimo de Sousa fails to debate with Rio and will undergo emergency surgery

Quote
Jerónimo de Sousa, secretary general of the PCP, will miss the debate with Rui Rio to undergo urgent surgery for a vascular problem. The communist leader still maintains the campaign agenda for this Tuesday, but will be replaced in the face-to-face with Rio by João Oliveira, parliamentary leader.

According to information provided by the party itself, Jerónimo de Sousa will undergo surgery on Wednesday to correct a carotid stenosis. The communist should return to the election campaign only on January 22, eight days before the legislative elections.
(...)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 11, 2022, 05:43:02 PM
PAN presents their election manifesto:


Quote
PAN wants animal rights in the Constitution and bets on the railroad

PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, presented this afternoon, in Porto city, the party's manifesto for the 30 January elections. Sousa Real labeled the manifesto as "progressive", "ecofeminist" and "animalistic", adding that her goal is to create a more "empathetic and inclusive" society. The main policies are the following:

- Inclusion in the Constitution of an animal protection clause;
- Lower the voting age to 16 years old;
- Creation, or reconfiguration, of two ministries: Ministry of Economy and Climate Change and the Ministry of Environment, Biodiversity and Animal Protection;
- Creation of the kingfisher figure, to ensure protection of rivers;
- Program to "deseucalypt" the Portuguese forests;
- Stop licenses to explore lithium mines;
- Connect all district capitals by railway by 2030;
- More investment in the NHS and creation of a public net of veterinary hospitals;
- Abolish bullfighting;
- Increase spending on Education, up to 6% of GDP, and lower the number of students by class;
- Tax reform by reviewing the number of income tax brackets;
- Corporate tax reduction to 17%
- National minimum wage at 905 euros by 2026;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2022, 06:40:08 AM
Yesterday's debate: PS vs BE


Quote
Legislative Elections 2022: The debate between PS and BE had honey, gall and Costa in the time of Seguro

With a clear bad mood between both sides, the debate focused on topics of health, Social Security and jobs. Catarina Martins said to Costa that he will not have an absolute majority in the elections and attacked Costa for refusing to sign a new deal back in 2019, and Costa responded that there will be a majority, the issue is that we don't know which will be. Regarding the NHS, Martins said that the health system is "dying" and that it's worse now than in the beginning of the pandemic. Costa responded by saying that the NHS has more 28,000 workers than in 2015, and that the alternative is a rightwing majority that will reverse several NHS policies of the last few years. Martins then attacked by rejecting Costa's numbers and that doctors and nurses are fleeing from the NHS. Both also had differences regarding Social Security, with Martins accusing the PS of keeping some cuts in pensions, while Costa said that the government ensured another 22 years of sustainability to SS. The debate ended with Costa labeling BE as a "radical" party for wanting to nationalize several companies, CTT (mail), EDP (energy), ANA (airports) and GALP (petrol), saying that this would force Portugal to borrow 30 billion euros and would lead the country to bankruptcy and chaos.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2022, 03:13:35 PM
More polling: (after this weekend, at least one polling company will conduct a daily tracking poll)

Aximage poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:  (https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/eleicoes/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/detalhe/ps-a-frente-do-psd-mas-indecisos-podem-baralhar-resultado-aquece-luta-pelo-terceiro-lugar)

Vote share %: (only raw numbers)

29.0% PS (-0.4)
24.1% PSD (+1.9)
  7.0% BE (+1.4)
  5.8% CHEGA (-1.6)
  4.9% CDU (+1.2)
  4.6% IL (-0.7)
  3.5% PAN (+0.6)
  0.9% CDS (-0.3)
  0.5% Livre (-0.5)
  1.9% Others/Invalid (-2.5)
17.8% Undecided (+0.7)

Poll conducted between 4 and 10 January 2022. Polled 615 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/pitagorica/legislativas/sondagem-tvi-cnn-portugal-costa-aumenta-distancia-para-rio-mas-falha-maioria-absoluta-be-a-frente-do-chega/20220112/61df1c7f0cf2cc58e7dcb823)

Vote share %:

39.6% PS (+2.6)
30.0% PSD (-1.7)
  6.4% BE (+1.5)
  5.7% CHEGA (-0.6)
  5.1% CDU (-0.8 )
  5.1% IL (-0.8 )
  1.8% PAN (-1.2)
  1.5% CDS (+0.5)
  4.8% Others/Invalid (+0.5)

Poll conducted between 30 December 2021 and 9 January 2022. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.08%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on January 12, 2022, 04:34:08 PM
With those numbers, CDS could be reduced to no seats or 1-2 in a better scenario.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 12, 2022, 04:53:57 PM
With those numbers, CDS could be reduced to no seats or 1-2 in a better scenario.

I feel like for the CDS the only question is whether it manages to scrape by one seat in the Lisbon district (and with numbers like those Mike just posted, that seems unlikely). I wouldn't call it a sad loss anyway...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: JimJamUK on January 12, 2022, 04:56:29 PM
PAN presents their election manifesto:

PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, presented this afternoon, in Porto city, the party's manifesto for the 30 January elections. Sousa Real labeled the manifesto as "progressive", "ecofeminist" and "animalistic", adding that her goal is to create a more "empathetic and inclusive" society. The main policies are the following:

- Inclusion in the Constitution of an animal protection clause;
- Lower the voting age to 16 years old;
- Creation, or reconfiguration, of two ministries: Ministry of Economy and Climate Change and the Ministry of Environment, Biodiversity and Animal Protection;
- Creation of the kingfisher figure, to ensure protection of rivers;
- Program to "deseucalypt" the Portuguese forests;
- Stop licenses to explore lithium mines;
- Connect all district capitals by railway by 2030;
- More investment in the NHS and creation of a public net of veterinary hospitals;
- Abolish bullfighting;
- Increase spending on Education, up to 6% of GDP, and lower the number of students by class;
- Tax reform by reviewing the number of income tax brackets;
- Corporate tax reduction to 17%
- National minimum wage at 905 euros by 2026;
Can you explain more about PAN’s overall ideology? It generally seems like a normal left of centre animal rights/environmentalist party and supported the previous centre left government, but also backs some tax cuts similar to the centre right and hasn’t ruled out backing a government by the latter. This seems slightly unusual combination.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2022, 06:10:56 PM
With those numbers, CDS could be reduced to no seats or 1-2 in a better scenario.

I feel like for the CDS the only question is whether it manages to scrape by one seat in the Lisbon district (and with numbers like those Mike just posted, that seems unlikely). I wouldn't call it a sad loss anyway...

Indeed, Lisbon seems the only district where CDS could gain seats. With 1.5% in Lisbon district, lets suppose, the party can just scrape by and elect and MP, but it always complicated because the D'Hondt method favours the largest parties. But, if the share is more concentrated in areas where CDS is normally stronger, like Aveiro, Bragança or Braga, then they would probably not elect a single MP as these district have fewer MPs to elect.

But, of course, this is looking at polling. This election is very strange as we don't know yet how voting will actually work on election day, because of the votes of those infected/or isolated, plus regarding early voting, the government is ready to have more than 1 million voters casting an early ballot. We'll see.

Can you explain more about PAN’s overall ideology? It generally seems like a normal left of centre animal rights/environmentalist party and supported the previous centre left government, but also backs some tax cuts similar to the centre right and hasn’t ruled out backing a government by the latter. This seems slightly unusual combination.

First of all, welcome to the forum :D :)

You just summed up what PAN is. They seem like center-left, but their position is more like Syncretic, and actually they defend that the left-right divide is ancient history, and are willing to talk to either the PS or PSD, and their policies reflect that, but I'm of the opinion that they would work better with the PS rather than the PSD. But, the PS in this campaign isn't very keen in conceding stuff, and PAN is letting the door open to the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: JimJamUK on January 12, 2022, 06:26:06 PM
First of all, welcome to the forum :D :)

You just summed up what PAN is. They seem like center-left, but their position is more like Syncretic, and actually they defend that the left-right divide is ancient history, and are willing to talk to either the PS or PSD, and their policies reflect that, but I'm of the opinion that they would work better with the PS rather than the PSD. But, the PS in this campaign isn't very keen in conceding stuff, and PAN is letting the door open to the PSD.
Thanks, long-time lurker but thought I'd finally start posting :)

Those are fair explanations, particularly about the PS making a conciliatory campaign difficult. It makes sense that they would want to avoid being pigeonholed as left wing in order to try to appeal to pro animal/environment voters who don't consider themselves as left wing (and there is already competition from more overtly eco-socialist parties on the left anyways), but it seems obvious they would get more of their agenda done with the left and the 'tax cuts combined with spending increases and more regulation' bit seems a tad populist/not well thought through.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2022, 06:42:36 PM
First of all, welcome to the forum :D :)

You just summed up what PAN is. They seem like center-left, but their position is more like Syncretic, and actually they defend that the left-right divide is ancient history, and are willing to talk to either the PS or PSD, and their policies reflect that, but I'm of the opinion that they would work better with the PS rather than the PSD. But, the PS in this campaign isn't very keen in conceding stuff, and PAN is letting the door open to the PSD.
Thanks, long-time lurker but thought I'd finally start posting :)

Those are fair explanations, particularly about the PS making a conciliatory campaign difficult. It makes sense that they would want to avoid being pigeonholed as left wing in order to try to appeal to pro animal/environment voters who don't consider themselves as left wing (and there is already competition from more overtly eco-socialist parties on the left anyways), but it seems obvious they would get more of their agenda done with the left and the 'tax cuts combined with spending increases and more regulation' bit seems a tad populist/not well thought through.

Exactly, many of PAN's target are urban voters who defend animal rights, but that are not that leftwing in terms of taxes, state intervention, etc. Some of their voters are the contrary, and that's why, like you said, they need to maintain "the door open" for both cases.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 12, 2022, 07:03:59 PM
Today's debates: CDS vs CHEGA, PSD vs CDU and IL vs Livre

- CDS vs CHEGA: Imagine a trainwreck, it was just like that. (https://www.dn.pt/politica/debate-cdschega-meia-hora-de-ofensas-e-aguas-totalmente-separadas-14485216.html) In a debate full of insults, with Ventura calling CDS "sissy" and that CDS doesn't represent the rightwing anymore. Rodrigues dos Santos responded by labeling Ventura as a "wind vane" that only makes noise and doesn't offer any solutions. Ventura then accused CDS of being just a "cane" for the PSD, while dos Santos trashed Ventura for his comments regarding the Pope and accusing him of not being a real Catholic. Ventura was quite upset and said that CDS is in tatters, and CDS leader just said that CHEGA was a bunch of fanatics, like a religious sect.

- PSD vs CDU: João Oliveira, PCP caucus leader, was the substitute, while Jerónimo de Sousa is in hospital, in a debate with little history. (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/12/politica/cronica/rui-rio-estagio-antonio-costa-1991704?ref=hp&cx=stories_featured_a-eleicoes-legislativas-2022-566383) Oliveira refused any talk about the succession in the PCP and hoped for a speedy recovery for Jerónimo, something that Rio also hoped. Rio accused PCP of having the same policies since 1975, while Oliveira responded that the PSD policies are no alternative. The debate went ahead with Rio saying that the Communists policies would lead the country to ruin, while Oliveira refuted the claims. Both agreed, however, in attacking the PS in which Oliveira accused Costa of being the sole responsible for the crisis, something that Rio also pointed.

- IL vs Livre: A very ideological debate. (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/livre-e-iniciativa-liberal-discutem-qual-o-melhor-modelo-economico-14486094.html) Rui Tavares, Livre leader, defended a country "with shared prosperity", while Cotrim Figueiredo accused Livre, and the left, of using emergencies and alarms to trash market based economics. Tavares denied these claims, while Figueiredo said that only by economic growth can we fight climate change. The topic of taxes divided both men, with IL defending tax cuts in order to raise wages, while Tavares defended his policy of UBI.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on January 12, 2022, 08:45:55 PM
The funniest moment in the Chega-CDS debate was when Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos
pulled out the Vox graphic that omitted Portugal and tried to attack Ventura's patriotism through it.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2022, 06:11:57 AM
The funniest moment in the Chega-CDS debate was when Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos
pulled out the Vox graphic that omitted Portugal and tried to attack Ventura's patriotism through it.

My favourite moment was when Rodrigues dos Santos called Ventura the "4th little shepherd of Fátima". I wasn't expecting that and I laughed so hard. xD

Also, today, the big debate between Costa and Rio will be held. It will be broadcast by the 3 main networks plus some radio stations. It could be a important debate in order to define who has the "momentum" until election day:


Quote
DECISION 22 | Rui Rio and António Costa in a decisive face-to-face.

A debate not to be missed broadcast on TVI and CNN Portugal, this Thursday.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 13, 2022, 06:36:43 AM
First of all, welcome to the forum :D :)

You just summed up what PAN is. They seem like center-left, but their position is more like Syncretic, and actually they defend that the left-right divide is ancient history, and are willing to talk to either the PS or PSD, and their policies reflect that, but I'm of the opinion that they would work better with the PS rather than the PSD. But, the PS in this campaign isn't very keen in conceding stuff, and PAN is letting the door open to the PSD.
Thanks, long-time lurker but thought I'd finally start posting :)

Those are fair explanations, particularly about the PS making a conciliatory campaign difficult. It makes sense that they would want to avoid being pigeonholed as left wing in order to try to appeal to pro animal/environment voters who don't consider themselves as left wing (and there is already competition from more overtly eco-socialist parties on the left anyways), but it seems obvious they would get more of their agenda done with the left and the 'tax cuts combined with spending increases and more regulation' bit seems a tad populist/not well thought through.
I'd just like to add that PAN was not originally intended to be a left-wing party though. They were founded with a focus on environmentalism and animal rights obviously but also had cutting public spending and taxes as a goal. The parliamentary situation (and the fact the PS in practice adopted much of the right-wing's economic agenda anyway) led them to cooperate almost exclusively with the left-wing bloc for influence, but being perceived as becoming a generic left-wing party under the leadership of André Silva caused some friction within the party. Inês Sousa Real is basically going back to square one.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2022, 09:41:35 AM
UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/legislativas-2022-sondagem-da-catolica-aponta-para-socialistas-a-frente-com-39-dos-votos_n1376526)

Vote share %:

39% PS (+1)
30% PSD (-2)
  6% BE (nc)
  6% CHEGA (+1)
  5% CDU (-1)
  4% IL (-1)
  3% PAN (+1)
  2% CDS (nc)
  2% Livre (+1)
  3% Others/Invalid (nc)

Preferred PM:

49% António Costa (-3)
35% Rui Rio (+2)
16% Undecided (+1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 10 January 2022. Polled 1,246 voters. MoE of 2.80%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2022, 02:41:21 PM
Less than a hour before the Rio vs Costa debate starts. The coverage so far looks like if it's a US Presidential debate...

If anyone is interested, and/or understands some Portuguese, here's some live feeds of the debate:

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3

https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/direto

I believe none are geo blocked.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2022, 06:17:46 PM
Rio vs Costa debate: PS and PSD leaders clash of economics, NHS and taxes.


Quote
Differences between Costa and Rio were noticed after intense debate

Both PS and PSD leaders faced off in the only debate between them in this campaign. Rio started the debate by saying the PSD was a "civilized opposition" and helped the government during the pandemic, but pointed to the many failures of Costa as PM, from the economy to the NHS. Costa attacked Rio by saying that Mr Rio only thinks of numbers and of treating people's problems with lightness. Regarding election outcomes, Rio warned that if Costa fails to get a majority, he doesn't have anyone to talk to as, he said, Costa closed the doors to the left and right, and said that the PS would have a new leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, who could persue a PS-BE coalition government. Confronted with this, Costa was a bit vague and made his argument for an absolute majority, but said he's open to governing case by case or with the support of PAN. On the economy, Rio "trashed" the PS policies and accused Costa of putting Portugal on "the tail of Europe", highlighting that Portugal is being surpassed by former USSR countries. In his part, Costa promised tax cuts for families, while Rio continued to press on the bad economic record of the PS. On taxes, Costa accused Rio of not being trusted by people, while Rio accused Costa of having no plan at all.

Both also clashed on the minimum wage, with Costa accusing Rio of not wanting to raise the minimum wage, which was rejected by Rio. Costa proposed that the State should help businesses raise wages, but Rio rejected the policy accusing the PS of impoverishing the country. During the debate, Costa talked a lot about his 2022 draft budget, that was rejected, in which Rio joked that the 2022 PS budget is like the discovery of the path to India. On the NHS the differences was clear. To solve the problem of 1 million people without a family doctor, Rio proposed the creation of the "assistant doctor", in which patients would be treated in a private hospital until they have a doctor in the NHS. Costa trashed the policy and accused the PSD of wanting the middle class to pay for healthcare in which Rio responded by saying that 4 million people have private health insurance and that this is proof the system isn't working. On the Justice system, Costa accused Rio of trying to "control" judges with his policies, which was denied by Rio. The final topic was TAP airlines, with Costa defending the bailout and that the company is crucial for Portugal, while Rio said that the company charges ridiculous prices for air travels and that he will privatize the airline as fast as possible.

The full debate:



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 13, 2022, 07:09:55 PM
Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal on who won the Rio vs Costa debate:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/rui-rio/antonio-costa/quem-venceu-o-debate-rio-vs-costa-houve-sondagem-da-cnn/20220113/61e0b64a0cf21847f0a50547)

Q: Who won the debate?

42% Rui Rio
38% António Costa
20% Tie

Poll conducted on 13 January 2022 after the debate. Polled 260 voters. MoE of 6.17%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2022, 06:40:21 AM
DA office is now investigating former Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita as a suspect for negligent homicide:


Quote
Portugal - Eduardo Cabrita will be investigated on suspicion of negligent homicide in the hit-and-run case...

The DA office has reopened the investigation surrounding the deadly run over of a road worker by Eduardo Cabrita's official car in July 2021. Last December, the DA only accused Mr Cabrita's chauffeur of negligent homicide, but Cabrita's reaction to the accusation sparked fury and he resigned in disgrace, but now, the DA is now considering also accusing Mr Cabrita of negligent homicide. The DA says that in the previous accusation, some omissive conducts of the minister weren't investigated and now it's important to review all of the evidence and accuse, or not, the minister.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2022, 09:37:58 AM
Rio vs Costa debate: PS and PSD leaders clash of economics, NHS and taxes.

Some funny moments during the debate:

- Costa's "Mike Pence fly moment":


- And Costa showing off the 2022 draft budget in a weird way, at the end of the debate:


Also, the debate was watched by 3,334,000 viewers on the 3 main networks plus the 3 cable news channels. (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/14/politica/noticia/33-milhoes-espectadores-viram-duelo-costa-vs-rio-torna-debate-visto-tv-portuguesa-1991886) It surpassed the 2015 Costa vs Passos Coelho debate viewing figure, becoming the most watched debate in Portuguese history.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2022, 02:10:02 PM
Russiagate: Lisbon city hall fined for 1.2 million euros for sharing personal data of Russian activists.


Quote
Lisbon City Hall fined in 1.2 million due to the Russiagate case

The Russiagate case, that broke last July, had a new chapter today. The Commission for Data Protection fined Lisbon city hall in 1.2 million euros for sharing personal data of Russian activists to Russian authorities, plus to other countries. The Commission trashed Lisbon city hall for the handling of the situation, saying that the sharing of this data to outside authorities could violate fundamental Constitutional rights, and that the fine is only lower because of the pandemic fiscal restrictions Lisbon city has. In a statement, Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas said that "this is a heavy legacy" the former mayor leaves to the city, that the money is needed for other social protection services and that they will analyse the fine in order to "protect the interests" of Lisbon city.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2022, 05:32:29 PM
1st Pitagórica daily tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/legislativas/sondagem/tracking-poll-ps-lidera-com-maioria-chega-e-a-terceira-forca-mais-votada/20220131/61e1d8aa0cf2c7ea0f1330bc)

Vote share %:

38.9% PS (-0.7)
29.7% PSD (-0.3)
  6.9% CHEGA (+1.2)
  6.2% BE (-0.2)
  5.4% IL (+0.3)
  4.6% CDU (-0.5)
  2.1% PAN (+0.3)
  1.7% CDS (+0.2)
  1.2% Livre (+0.1)
  3.3% Others/Invalid (-0.4)

Poll conducted between 10 and 13 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2022, 06:32:46 PM
Today's debates: PAN vs CHEGA, PS vs IL and CDS vs BE

- PAN vs CHEGA: Unlike other debates where Ventura was like a "boiling pot", this time it was a strangely calm debate. (https://observador.pt/2022/01/14/da-coelha-acacia-aos-elefantes-do-camboja-sousa-real-e-ventura-incapazes-de-fazer-amigos-entre-os-animais/) PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, started the debate by saying that PAN is ready to be a solution in the government formation either with the PS or PSD, but drawing "red lines" like regarding the eucalyptus forests issue. Ventura accused PAN of being a "cane" of the PS and that they should had run in a coalition with the PS. Sousa Real then attacked CHEGA for having no policies regarding climate change, while Ventura responded by accusing PAN of just wanting to forbid and tax stuff. PAN leader then used Ventura's pet rabbit (yes, Ventura has a pet rabbit called Acácia), to defend their policy of banning hunting and asked if Ventura wanted "Acácia" to be killed. Ventura responded that he loves animals as much Sousa Real does, but that forbiding things isn't the answer but rather regulate them. The debate ended with both using arguments against each other regarding women and animals.

- PS vs IL: After yesterday's "bad night" for Costa, the PM faced IL leader João Cotrim Figueiredo. (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/14/politica/cronica/ps-vs-il-sonho-liberal-costa-viver-pais-nordico-1991978?ref=hp&cx=latest_news_a_v2--496639) The debate started with Figueiredo trashing Costa's economic record and that Portugal has one of Europe's worst numbers on purchasing power parity and productivity, adding that Portugal's current growth isn't enough. Costa congratulated Figueiredo for acknowledging that Portugal was growing before the pandemic and that we need to keep growing and bet on more innovation and qualifications. On his response, IL leader said that Portugal was is indeed generating a lot of qualified people, but that they are leaving the country to find better opportunities. The debate then went on to taxes, with Costa criticizing IL's tax policies and saying that the 2022 draft budget had income tax cuts, and on Social Security, Figueiredo reminded Costa that 20% of the SS fund is invested on the stock market, while Costa responded by saying he raised pensions and criticized any idea of SS on the stock market. Figueiredo trashed the idea of a 4 day working week saying the country cannot afford it, while Costa said that in this matter he's very "liberal" and that his dream was to live in a country like the Nordic countries. In the end, Cotrim Figueiredo literally showed a roll of promises unfulfilled by Costa.

- CDS vs BE: The debate started with Martins justifying the costs of BE's nationalization plan and that it would cost 20 billion euros (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/catarina-vs-chicao-quando-um-democrata-cristao-vai-pela-sala-de-chuto-perde-a-moral-notas-e-analises-dos-comentadores-expresso/), and Rodrigues dos Santos, CDS leader, trashed the plan as "radical" and that it would lead to an "overdose" of taxes that would "kill" families and the economy. Martins said that some transport companies would have lower prices if they weren't privatized and accused the rightwing of "believing in Santa Claus". Regarding TAP airlines, Rodrigues dos Santos said that company is to be privatized immediately as it has been deflecting billion of euros from businesses and families. Martins is against the privatization and says it would be like "throwing away" all the money injected in TAP. Rodrigues dos Santos then defended tax cuts for families and accused BE of being "a factory of taxes", while Martins accused the rightwing of benefiting those at the top by their policies of tax cuts.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 15, 2022, 05:41:32 PM
Pitagórica daily tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/sondagem/pitagorica/tracking-poll-ps-segue-na-lideranca-livre-ultrapassa-cds-pp/20220115/61e3113c0cf21a10a419bdda)

Vote share %:

38.8% PS (-0.1)
29.3% PSD (-0.4)
  7.8% CHEGA (+0.9)
  6.8% BE (+0.6)
  4.9% IL (-0.5)
  4.6% CDU (nc)
  1.9% PAN (-0.2)
  1.5% Livre (+0.3)
  1.3% CDS (-0.4)
  3.2% Others/Invalid (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 11 and 14 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 15, 2022, 05:52:29 PM
The last one-on-one debate was tonight: PSD vs PAN

Rui Rio and Inês Sousa Real faced each other in the only debate outside Lisbon city, as it broadcast from RTP studios in Porto city. (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/rio-e-sousa-real-discordam-em-tudo-mas-estao-disponiveis-para-conversar/) Despite the openness from each side to talk after the elections, there were clear disagreements between both sides that could make a deal complicated. Sousa Real criticized Rio's positions on Parliamentary debates, which were reduced after a PS-PSD deal in 2020, and that these kind of moves are damaging for democracy. Rio defended the changes, saying that Parliamentary debates are to control the government and not to be front page news on newspapers or on TV. Regarding forests, both disagree with PAN criticizing PSD for proposing the continuation of eucalyptus plantation, while Rio said it's crucial for any land owner to have a profit in its land. On taxes, both agree on substance, but disagree on the timing. Rio said that reducing corporate and income taxes at the same time could be a disaster for the country's finances, while Sousa Real reminded Rio of several private-state deals that are hurting the country and cost a lot more.

The one-on-one debates are now over. Next week there will be 3 debates: On Monday, all party leaders, represented in Parliament, will face off in a debate on RTP1; On Tuesday, the non represented parties will debate also on RTP1; and on Thursday, party leaders will face off in a debate broadcast by the 3 main news radio stations in Portugal, Antena1, TSF and Renascença.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 15, 2022, 06:59:09 PM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.dn.pt/media/a-primeira-pagina-do-dn-deste-domingo-14495727.html)

Vote share %:

38.1% PS (+2.7)
28.5% PSD (-4.7)
  9.0% CHEGA (+2.8 )
  7.4% BE (+0.1)
  4.8% CDU (-0.3)
  3.7% IL (nc)
  2.1% PAN (-0.4)
  1.8% CDS (+0.5)
  4.6% Others/Invalid (-0.7)

Poll conducted between 6 and 12 January 2022. Polled 807 voters. MoE of 3.45%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2022, 07:15:02 AM
The official campaign period began this midnight. Until 28 January, party leaders will travel across the country to win votes.

Also, today opened the registration for early voting, to be held next Sunday 23 January. Voters have until 20 January to register. PM Costa has registered to vote early and advised voters to do the same.  (https://observador.pt/2022/01/16/costa-inscreve-se-para-votar-antecipadamente-no-porto-dia-23-e-pede-mobilizacao/)

I will also cast an early ballot next Sunday. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Velasco on January 16, 2022, 07:53:53 AM

Both PS and PSD leaders faced off in the only debate between them in this campaign. Rio started the debate by saying the PSD was a "civilized opposition" and helped the government during the pandemic, but pointed to the many failures of Costa as PM, from the economy to the NHS. Costa attacked Rio by saying that Mr Rio only thinks of numbers and of treating people's problems with lightness. Regarding election outcomes, Rio warned that if Costa fails to get a majority, he doesn't have anyone to talk to as, he said, Costa closed the doors to the left and right, and said that the PS would have a new leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, who could persue a PS-BE coalition government. Confronted with this, Costa was a bit vague and made his argument for an absolute majority, but said he's open to governing case by case or with the support of PAN. On the economy, Rio "trashed" the PS policies and accused Costa of putting Portugal on "the tail of Europe", highlighting that Portugal is being surpassed by former USSR countries. In his part, Costa promised tax cuts for families, while Rio continued to press on the bad economic record of the PS. On taxes, Costa accused Rio of not being trusted by people, while Rio accused Costa of having no plan at all.

Both also clashed on the minimum wage, with Costa accusing Rio of not wanting to raise the minimum wage, which was rejected by Rio. Costa proposed that the State should help businesses raise wages, but Rio rejected the policy accusing the PS of impoverishing the country. During the debate, Costa talked a lot about his 2022 draft budget, that was rejected, in which Rio joked that the 2022 PS budget is like the discovery of the path to India. On the NHS the differences was clear. To solve the problem of 1 million people without a family doctor, Rio proposed the creation of the "assistant doctor", in which patients would be treated in a private hospital until they have a doctor in the NHS. Costa trashed the policy and accused the PSD of wanting the middle class to pay for healthcare in which Rio responded by saying that 4 million people have private health insurance and that this is proof the system isn't working. On the Justice system, Costa accused Rio of trying to "control" judges with his policies, which was denied by Rio. The final topic was TAP airlines, with Costa defending the bailout and that the company is crucial for Portugal, while Rio said that the company charges ridiculous prices for air travels and that he will privatize the airline as fast as possible.

I envy Portugal for having a "civilized" centre-right opposition. Said this, I am personally interested in "the problem of 1 million people without a family doctor". Is it the NHS in so bad shape that it's unable to reach all the population? Are these 1 million people covered by private insurances, or rather they are poor and excluded from the system?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2022, 08:19:47 AM
I envy Portugal for having a "civilized" centre-right opposition. Said this, I am personally interested in "the problem of 1 million people without a family doctor". Is it the NHS in so bad shape that it's unable to reach all the population? Are these 1 million people covered by private insurances, or rather they are poor and excluded from the system?

The problem of people without a family doctor has plagued governments for a long time now, and we seem to end up in the same situation over and over again. The issue is that the NHS, currently, is in a bad shape, unfortunately. Low wages, bad organization and no prospects of better working conditions are pushing doctors and nurses away from the NHS, and they either go to the private sector or immigrate to EU countries or the Emirates. The pandemic didn't help, of course, as NHS staff is overwhelmed and the lack of staff isn't helping. I don't know if those 1 million people are covered with private health insurance, but a study from 2019 found out that there's a correlation between lack of family doctors and private health insurance (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/classes-media-e-baixa-sao-as-que-contratam-mais-seguros-de-saude-11556959.html), and that low and middle class families are the ones that buy more private health insurance mainly in the regions of Lisbon, Setúbal and the Algarve, the areas with the lowest rate of coverage of family doctors.

There are two types of insurance in Portugal, private and public: About 3 million people have private health insurance of their own, either from their employer or bought by themselves; And then there's the health insurance for public employees, ADSE, that covers 1 million people, thus having 4 million people with some kind of health insurance.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 16, 2022, 02:40:21 PM
Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2022, 03:40:35 PM
Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Yep, the PS seems to be growing, although I'm skeptical of the near 40% polls are giving them, as well CHEGA, meaning that all that idea that Ventura was losing steam in the debates and that would hurt him, was not very truthfull. The PSD has drooped to pre-congress levels, 29-30%, while BE and CDU, especially BE, continue to fall. Livre also seems to be forging a comeback, but I'm a bit skeptical. Also, the PS vs PSD debate seems to have had no impact in polling, so far. Today's Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/eleicoes-legislativas/sondagem/tracking-poll-ps-e-chega-a-subir-cds-abaixo-de-1/20301124/61e467760cf21a10a419e3a6)

Vote share %:

39.6% PS (+0.8 )
29.6% PSD (+0.3)
   8.1% CHEGA (+0.3)
   6.0% BE (-0.8 )
   5.1% CDU (+0.5)
   4.7% IL (-0.2)
   1.7% PAN (-0.2)
   1.5% Livre (nc)
   0.9% CDS (-0.4)
   3.0% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

If nothing extraordinary happens in the next two weeks, this election is shaping up to be a remake of the 2021 Canadian election...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2022, 04:07:28 PM
First day of campaigning:

PS - Socialist Party



Costa kicked off the campaign in the Azores, with a rally presenting the islands candidates for the elections.

PSD - Social Democratic Party



Rio got a really good welcoming in Barcelos and Braga cities, with lot of supporters, but the day was "haunted" by a joke Rio make regarding Costa voting early, saying that Costa will not vote for himself. Rio was forced to downplay the issue and labeled as just a joke but the PS accused Rio of trying to misled people and doesn't know how early voting works.

CDU - Unitarian Democratic Coalition



With Jerónimo de Sousa still recovering from his surgery, João Oliveira campaigned in Setúbal, while João Oliveira in Beja district.

IL - Liberal Initiative



The Liberals opened their campaign with a sporting event in Matosinhos beach, Porto district.

CH - CHEGA



Ventura started the campaign in Batalha city, Leiria, where he visited the Batalha monastery.

Will try to do daily summary of the campaign during the week and add, when available, the political broadcasts from parties. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2022, 05:45:31 PM
Will try to do daily summary of the campaign during the week and add, when available, the political broadcasts from parties. :)

Here they are, from some parties, big and small:

Social Democratic Party - PSD



Left Bloc - BE



Liberal Initiative - IL



Livre - L



Socialist Alternative Movement - MAS




Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on January 16, 2022, 07:21:42 PM
Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2022, 07:37:07 PM
Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.

I may be wrong, but I don't think that's going to happen. In order to that to happen, he needs a PSD colapse, for the moment it's not happening, and he needs that the smaller parties perform badly and that's not plausible. Plus, polls, may be underpolling the other/invalid share, as normally it has 7-8% of the votes and we are seeing 3-4% share in the polls. I also have a feeling that in the minor parties, Tino de Rans RIR could poll well, as he's been in a lot of talkshows and he recently did an interview that was a ratings success. Again, I may be wrong, my predictions about Portuguese politics since the Azores elections have been a fiasco. xD We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 16, 2022, 08:19:52 PM
Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 17, 2022, 05:52:14 AM
Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.
No way. That would require getting approximately 45% of the vote, perhaps a bit less but certainly not less than 40%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 17, 2022, 06:02:32 AM
Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

One thing that caught my eye when opening the "votómetro" was seeing the CDU in blue. I somehow had no idea this was a thing - I find it very bizarre given that the PCP by itself, like all communist parties, uses red.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2022, 06:09:23 AM
Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

One thing that caught my eye when opening the "votómetro" was seeing the CDU in blue. I somehow had no idea this was a thing - I find it very bizarre given that the PCP by itself, like all communist parties, uses red.

Some media outlets use blue for CDU, and even the coalition uses that colour if you go to their website and social media pages. They have flags and campaign material in 4 colours: red, green, blue and white. The official colour of the coalition is actually blue, but because almost everybody links CDU to PCP, red is also used.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 17, 2022, 06:28:23 AM
Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

I for:

Livre 90%
BE 87%
PS 86%
CDU 75%
PAN 69%
PSD 63%
IL 53%
CDS 37%
Chega 25%

I guess I'd vote BE (or PS depending on the campaign) if I were Portuguese. I thought I had more in common with CDU and PAN. And I never really considered Livre a serious option. Can they really survive after the JKM debacle? That's surprising to me.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2022, 06:54:51 AM
I guess I'd vote BE (or PS depending on the campaign) if I were Portuguese. I thought I had more in common with CDU and PAN. And I never really considered Livre a serious option. Can they really survive after the JKM debacle? That's surprising to me.

I'm also a bit surprised about Livre's comeback in the polls. Yes, Tavares had good debate performances, but I'm still skeptical about Livre's chances. If they indeed survive and retain their 2019 seat, it would a major win as, like you said, the party after the whole Joacine fiasco went downhill.

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.
No way. That would require getting approximately 45% of the vote, perhaps a bit less but certainly not less than 40%.

Actually, a party can achieve an absolute majority with a share bellow 40%, if the margin between the 1st and 2nd parties is wide enough, maybe 14-15%, and if smaller parties poll badly or if there is a big distribution of votes between smaller parties, as the D'Hondt method favours the largest party. But, unless the PSD colapses, it's almost mathematically impossible for Costa to win a majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 17, 2022, 09:40:31 AM
I guess I'd vote BE (or PS depending on the campaign) if I were Portuguese. I thought I had more in common with CDU and PAN. And I never really considered Livre a serious option. Can they really survive after the JKM debacle? That's surprising to me.

I'm also a bit surprised about Livre's comeback in the polls. Yes, Tavares had good debate performances, but I'm still skeptical about Livre's chances. If they indeed survive and retain their 2019 seat, it would a major win as, like you said, the party after the whole Joacine fiasco went downhill.

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.
No way. That would require getting approximately 45% of the vote, perhaps a bit less but certainly not less than 40%.

Actually, a party can achieve an absolute majority with a share bellow 40%, if the margin between the 1st and 2nd parties is wide enough, maybe 14-15%, and if smaller parties poll badly or if there is a big distribution of votes between smaller parties, as the D'Hondt method favours the largest party. But, unless the PSD colapses, it's almost mathematically impossible for Costa to win a majority.
Sure, it's technically possible, but it would require a very unusual result.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 17, 2022, 09:49:36 AM
Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/
PSD 68%
PAN 64%
PS 64%
IL 61%
Livre 58%
BE 57%
CDS 52%
CH 51%
CDU 49%

More or less what I expected, I'm not a perfect fit for any party. Will probably vote for the PSD/CDS/PPM joint list (running in the Azores constituency).


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2022, 09:50:40 AM
Sure, it's technically possible, but it would require a very unusual result.

Exactly. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2022, 09:58:17 AM
Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

My results:

PSD 82%
CDS 74%
IL 69%
PAN 63%
CHEGA 59%
PS 52%
BE 49%
CDU 42%
Livre 39%

Pretty much as expected, but I was surprised by the 74% CDS for me... xD I supported abortion and gay rights, plus drug liberalization. Weird.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2022, 11:15:24 AM
Update on Jerónimo de Sousa's health:

Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader, was released from hospital this Monday morning after a successful vascular surgery last Thursday. He's expected to resume campaigning next weekend.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Continential on January 17, 2022, 02:02:56 PM
Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/
Got
()


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 17, 2022, 07:05:42 PM
Last televised debate between the main parties: 9 party leaders debated NHS, taxes, economy and government formation.


Quote
Legislative Elections 2022: Costa asks for the first time for an absolute majority (with all the letters)

9 party leaders faced off, this evening on RTP1, to debate in the last televised debate of this election cycle between the main parties. PM Costa started the debate by asking for a strong "absolute majority", the first time he said these words, and beyond that he's quite vague and doesn't answer question regarding other scenarios. Rui Rio asked for tactical voting in the PSD, as he's the only one that can defeat Costa, but if he fails to win the election, Rio opened the door to staying on was PSD leader, depending on the party's share. BE and CDU are open to talk to the PS and resume the "geringonça". CDS tried to fight back the "tactical voting" strategy of the PSD, while PAN warned that they will not support a government that continues to sponsor bullfights. CHEGA demands ministerial position in order to support a PSD government, while IL trashed Costa for asking for a majority in exchange of nothing. Livre defended an eco-geringonça in order to influence the PS.

The debate went on to discuss topics regarding taxes, GDP, wages, etc. Catarina Martins, BE, trashed the rightwing policies, especially the PSD ones, about reducing first corporate taxes and only in second income taxes. Rio responded by saying that the country needs to create wealth in order to spread it, and that only businesses can do that, adding he would also like to reduce all taxes, but that the country's fiscal limitations forbid. Costa said that his goal is increase GDP growth and create better working conditions. When pressed by the moderator the Portugal is being surpassed by several former Iron curtain countries, Costa doesn't answer but adding that history explains it and that is time to look for the future. IL defended their flat tax policy, while PAN talked about poverty, by proposing tax and VAT cuts for families. Ventura criticized the social supports that drain money and that if the country is poor now it's PS blame. CDU defended wages increases for all, adding that the country needs to produce more. On the NHS, Rio criticized the PS for saying the PSD wants to privatize the health system, pressing that the system has issues and the fact that 4 million have health insurance is proof, while Costa responded by saying that more staff was hired and that they plan to invest more in the NHS. IL defended a "mix system" like those in Germany and the Netherlands, while CDU doesn't want the private sector in the NHS. BE criticized the PSD policies, saying that Social Democrats see as appetizing the health sector business.

On closing statements, Costa asked, again, for a stable majority, Rio defended a new economic and governmental model for Portugal, BE and CDU said, basically, that a vote in these parties is a vote to create solutions for the country, CDS trashed PAN on rural affairs, Ventura talked about corruption, PAN about gender equality, IL used TAP airlines to attack Costa and asked why the PM used Ryanair to go to a campaign event in the Azores, and Livre said that Portugal could be a leading edge economy in the European Union.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: S019 on January 17, 2022, 10:53:49 PM
My results:

PS: 73%
PSD: 71%
PAN: 58%
Livre: 57%
CDU: 52%
CDS: 49%
BE: 49%
IL: 45%
CH: 40%

To Mike88: Is there any polls on who the public believes won this last debate?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2022, 06:22:53 AM
To Mike88: Is there any polls on who the public believes won this last debate?

So far, no. There is only a poll regarding who won the Costa-Rio debate last week, (42% Rio; 38% Costa), but RTP will probably release a poll during this week and they could ask who won the all party debate. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2022, 09:47:52 AM
Campaign update:

- Another change in the CDU campaign: João Ferreira, Lisbon councillor, candidate for MP and who was one of the substitutes of Jerónimo de Sousa while he's recovering from surgery, tested positive for Covid-19 and the CDU campaign is now fully in the hands of João Oliveira (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/pcp/joao-ferreira-passou-mal-a-noite-e-falha-campanha-da-cdu-em-loures-bernardino-soares-e-joao-oliveira-entram-em-acao/20420118/61e6a90f0cf21a10a41a3afd), PCP caucus leader and candidate in Évora district.

- Early voting registrations are ongoing, but, so far, only 167,000 voters asked to vote early next Sunday (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/quase-167-mil-inscritos-para-voto-antecipado-14502203.html). The deadline is Thursday, but, unless there's a big last minute surge of registrations, the figure could be way bellow of what was expected. We'll see.

- Local governments are also freaking out for having no directives regarding voting for people infected or isolated because of Covid yet (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/municipios-pedem-divulgacao-urgente-do-parecer-da-procuradoria-sobre-confinados-14502678.html). The head of the mayors association, Luísa Salgueiro (PS-Matosinhos), is demanding an immediate decision from the Public prosecutor's office regarding the matter, otherwise they will not be able to organize the elections without having problems.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2022, 03:22:23 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/rui-rio/antonio-costa/tracking-poll-a-primeira-amostra-pos-debate-rio-vs-costa-psd-tem-a-maior-subida-ate-agora-ps-cai-mas-pouquinho/20220118/61e707b30cf2c7ea0f13edc4)

Vote share %:

39.8% PS (-0.3)
30.4% PSD (+1.6)
  7.5% CHEGA (-0.5)
  5.8% CDU (-0.1)
  4.5% BE (-1.4)
  4.3% IL (-0.7)
  1.7% PAN (+0.2)
  1.5% Livre (+0.2)
  1.3% CDS (+0.7)
  3.2% Others/Invalid (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on January 18, 2022, 05:36:15 PM
This minor party debate is just as hilarious and unhinged as I expected it to be. Between the stuffed elephant and the COVID denial insanity and the PNR guy basically owning up to being a racist, it's the most entertaining of all. At least people like Tino de Rans and the VOLT leader are relatively harmless, but thank goodness none of these have any chance of winning a seat.

Also while I'm a PS guy, the test gave me:
64% CDS
64% PSD
63% CDU
62% PS


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 18, 2022, 06:07:05 PM
This minor party debate is just as hilarious and unhinged as I expected it to be. Between the stuffed elephant and the COVID denial insanity and the PNR guy basically owning up to being a racist, it's the most entertaining of all. At least people like Tino de Rans and the VOLT leader are relatively harmless, but thank goodness none of these have any chance of winning a seat.

Yeah, that ADN leader, Bruno Fialho, when he basically said that only 152 people died of Covid in Portugal because lawsuit BB26Xwhatever says so, I laugh so hard and even the moderator was like "What the hell?" xD. PNR, now Ergue-te, was as usual, racist, So, ADN and Ergue-te, former PNR, are parties against Covid restrictions, vaccines and testing (the ADN leader was on the debate by remote because he refused to do a Covid test or present one). PCTP/MRPP, the maoist party, was quite dull, the party was never the same after the death of their historic leader Arnaldo Matos. Tino, I thought he was quite unprepared, he was much more clearer in the Presidential campaign.

Also, the lights went out during the debate (https://www.dn.pt/politica/partidos-sem-assento-na-ar-o-debate-em-que-o-negacionismo-mostrou-a-cara-14504393.html) when the JPP candidate was talking about the high energy prices, the irony xD, and RTP was forced to cut to commercials.

Plus, the "elephant moment":


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Babeuf on January 18, 2022, 10:59:52 PM
Did the test (left a few Portugal-specific issues I am uninformed on as neutral) and got:

Livre 82%
BE 81%
PS 79%
PAN 69%
CDU 68%
PSD 58%
IL 46%
CDS 40%
Chega 35%

If I was Portugese I'd probably vote BE but would have to look more closely at the differences between them and CDU to be sure.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2022, 09:51:10 AM
Government announces that isolated people will be able to vote on 30 January:


Quote
People in isolation will be able to leave their house to vote

After the government cancelled yesterday press conference about the issue, and with just 10 days before election day, the Interior minister, Francisca Van Dunem, announced, today, that voters isolated because of Covid will be allowed to vote on 30 January. There will be no special polling stations for these voters and the government will recommend that voters in this situation vote only at the last hour, between 6pm and 7pm. However, the government warns that they cannot prevent isolated people of voting during the rest of the day. The government also forecasts that, by election day, there will be around 383,000 people in isolation.

Regarding early voting, as of 2pm today, 208,030 voters have registered to vote early next Sunday. However, the government is disappointed with the current figures as they were expecting a larger number of voters, above 1 million.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2022, 03:27:50 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/geral/tracking-poll-costa-e-rio-mais-proximos-do-que-nunca-chega-cai-cdu-be-il-continuam-proximos-entre-si/20270119/61e847800cf21a10a41a7db6)

Vote share %:

38.7% PS (-1.1)
30.4% PSD (nc)
  7.2% CHEGA (-0.3)
  5.3% CDU (-0.5)
  5.1% BE (+0.6)
  4.7% IL (+0.4)
  1.7% PAN (nc)
  1.1% Livre (-0.2)
  1.1% CDS (-0.2)
  4.7% Others/Invalid (+1.5)

Poll conducted between 15 and 18 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 19, 2022, 06:13:49 PM
Tomorrow will be the last debate before the elections, on the 3 main news radios: Antena1, TSF and Renascença. But the debate is expected to be low key as at least Rui Rio and André Ventura will not attend the debate.

Rio is campaigning in the North of the country and asked the radios if he could participate by remote (https://rr.sapo.pt/noticia/politica/2022/01/19/debate-das-radios-quase-so-com-a-esquerda/268992/), but this was rejected by the radios. Ventura's reasons are still unknown.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 20, 2022, 06:26:20 AM
Last debate: Governance situation was the main issue in the radios debate.


Quote
What will Marcelo do? Costa and opposition involve President in elections

In a debate where PSD and CHEGA leaders were absent, plus Costa arrived late to the debate, the main topic of discussion was the possible government scenarios after the 30 January elections. After arriving 10 minutes late to the debate, Costa first criticized Rio and Ventura for not being on the debate and then asked, again, for a majority and refused a new geringonça if he wins without a majority. Costa used President Marcelo as leverage against the other parties accusation that an absolute majority would be a danger to the country, saying that Marcelo will "control" the government. IL criticized Costa for using Marcelo in the campaign, while CDS asked if Costa is so close to Marcelo, why didn't his party supported him in 2021. BE and CDU didn't reacted to the Marcelo argument, accused the PS of creating a "staging" and that the PS isn't proposing anything to solve the countries problems. PAN is willing to support the PS, as does Livre. Other topics discussed were Health and Education.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 20, 2022, 07:30:59 AM
More political broadcasts from parties. (Big and small)

PS - Socialist Party



PAN - People's-Animals-Nature



E - Rise Up!



JPP - Together for the People



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 20, 2022, 03:29:44 PM
New polling:

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/sondagem-ps-mantem-maioria-com-psd-a-encurtar-distancias-mas-costa-e-o-preferido-para-liderar_n1378312)

Vote share %:

37% PS (-2)
33% PSD (+3)
  6% CHEGA (nc)
  5% BE (-1)
  5% CDU (nc)
  5% IL (+1)
  2% CDS (nc)
  2% PAN (-1)
  2% Livre (nc)
  3% Others/Invalid (nc)

Poll conducted between 12 and 18 January 2022. Polled 1,456 voters. MoE of 2.60%.

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/sondagem/iniciativa-liberal/tracking-poll-ps-e-psd-em-empate-tecnico-boas-noticias-para-a-il-mas-para-o-chega-be-e-pcp/20220120/61e9a4c30cf21a10a41ab45d)

Vote share %:

36.5% PS (-2.2)
32.9% PSD (+2.5)
  6.3% CHEGA (-0.9)
  5.2% IL (+0.5)
  5.0% CDU (-0.3)
  5.0% BE (-0.1)
  1.9% PAN (+0.2)
  1.5% Livre (+0.4)
  1.0% CDS (-0.1)
  4.7% Others/Invalid (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 20, 2022, 04:06:10 PM

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 20, 2022, 05:31:08 PM

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.

Yes, we'll have to wait for more polls to see if this trend is clear or not, because so far the race has been like a "yo-yo": the PS down, PSD up, then PS up, PSD down, and so on. By the end of the weekend, we will know for sure. The election is in 9 days.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2022, 06:41:40 AM
Another voting compass, now from Público newspaper called "Electoral dating":

https://www.publico.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/propostas-partidos


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2022, 09:37:40 AM
Early voting well bellow expectations: Just 310,000 voters asked to vote early.


Quote
Early voting on mobility. More than 310 thousand voters signed up, the Government wanted a million

The deadline to ask to vote early next Sunday, ended at midnight today and the final numbers are a disappointment. The government planned for more than a one million voters casting an early ballot, but only around 310,000 voters asked to vote early. Because of the rising numbers of covid-19, the government advised voters to vote early in order for election day, 30 January, to be calmer and with less people at the same time, but the advised was a bit ignored by voters.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2022, 10:18:44 AM
Campaign update:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/aominuto/61e34d490cf2cc58e7dd5d18)

- The PS campaign is a bit "under fire" after this morning Rosa Mota, gold medal winner in the 1988 Seoul Olympics, called Rio a "little Nazi" (https://rr.sapo.pt/noticia/politica/2022/01/21/rosa-mota-chama-nazizinho-a-rui-rio/269216/) and that he damaged Porto city as mayor. Rio has already reacted by saying that the PS is "nervous" and is already starting with the insults. Costa is hold a rally in Castelo Branco city later tonight;

- Rui Rio took the morning off campaigning to do a medical check up after bleeding from his nose twice in the last few days. He will campaign in Coimbra district today, with a walkabout in the city center and a rally at the end of the afternoon;

- Catarina Martins, BE leader, visited a Health Center in Lisbon, this morning, to raise awareness of the bad working conditions of NHS workers. She downplayed the polls, that are giving very low results to her party, and warned that are still a lot of undecideds;

- João Oliveira, CDU "temporary" campaign head, campaigned today in Silves, Algarve and, like Martins, also visited a Health Center. He trashed Costa for running away from a possible negotiations with the leftwing parties after 30 January. Jerónimo de Sousa is expected to return to the campaign trail next Wednesday;

- João Cotrim Figueiredo, IL, visited an University in Lisbon this morning, and talked about the polls that put the Liberals "neck and neck" with CHEGA, BE and CDU, and that he thinks it's fun having so much parties fighting for 3rd place;

- André Ventura, CHEGA leader, is campaigning in the North of the country today, but CHEGA's campaign was haunted, yesterday evening, with the news that their website and database were hacked.  (https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/01/21/chega-diz-que-foi-alvo-de-ataque-informatico-no-site-e-portal/) Despite news agencies saying that the website appears to be running as normal, the party said they cannot access some of their data.

- CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, campaigned in Porto city, this morning, and that he's confident about a possible rightwing majority in order to block Costa from governing. Regarding the possibility of cabinet posts in a PSD government, Rodrigues dos Santos wants to see first his party's final result.

- PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, was received with insults in Beja city, from bullfighting supporters and workers (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/ines-sousa-real/tauromaquia/profundamente-lamentavel-lider-do-pan-recebida-no-aeroporto-de-beja-com-insultos-e-um-chocalho/20220120/61e9affe0cf2c7ea0f145803), plus some farmers also. They accused her of being "fascist", and Sousa Real said the insults towards her and her party are regrettable.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 21, 2022, 10:51:29 AM

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.

Yes, we'll have to wait for more polls to see if this trend is clear or not, because so far the race has been like a "yo-yo": the PS down, PSD up, then PS up, PSD down, and so on. By the end of the weekend, we will know for sure. The election is in 9 days.

Could these latest poll moves be the PSD getting a bit of a "debate bounce"?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2022, 11:12:27 AM

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.

Yes, we'll have to wait for more polls to see if this trend is clear or not, because so far the race has been like a "yo-yo": the PS down, PSD up, then PS up, PSD down, and so on. By the end of the weekend, we will know for sure. The election is in 9 days.

Could these latest poll moves be the PSD getting a bit of a "debate bounce"?

Oh, yes, absolutely. Rio's good performance in the "prime ministerial debate" last week, plus the positive feedback he got from the media, are helping the PSD. Plus, their campaign has also been having a positive feedback from the media, as they report that the PSD events have always a lot of people. The main question is if it will last, we'll have to wait for more polls.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2022, 02:11:25 PM
Rui Moreira, Porto mayor, acquitted of all charges in the Selminho case:


Quote
Rui Moreira acquitted in the Selminho case for "manifest lack of evidence"

The mayor of Porto, Rui Moreira, was acquitted of all charges in the Selminho case, regarding a piece of land in Porto city where Mr Moreira was accused of benefiting his family realestate while he already mayor of the city. The judge in a Porto city court ruled that there's lack of evidence and that the DA evidences were inefficient and that the witnesses didn't corroborate the DA's accusation. Shortly after, in a statement from Porto City Hall, Mr Moreira accused those who used this case against him, and attacking Rui Rio for using the case against him in the 2021 local elections, as both have a long feud for a long time now, and that this case was always political. The DA office will, however, appeal this ruling.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2022, 03:29:20 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/sondagem/rui-rio/tracking-poll-ps-e-psd-taco-a-taco-mas-um-sobe-e-outro-desce-ha-um-novo-candidato-a-terceira-forca-politica-e-nao-e-o-be-nem-a-cdu/20220121/61eafcb90cf2c7ea0f148a02)

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
  6.3% CHEGA (nc)
  6.3% IL (+1.1)
  4.9% BE (-0.1)
  4.5% CDU (-0.5)
  1.6% PAN (-0.3)
  1.6% Livre (+0.1)
  1.2% CDS (+0.2)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 21, 2022, 05:23:06 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/sondagem/rui-rio/tracking-poll-ps-e-psd-taco-a-taco-mas-um-sobe-e-outro-desce-ha-um-novo-candidato-a-terceira-forca-politica-e-nao-e-o-be-nem-a-cdu/20220121/61eafcb90cf2c7ea0f148a02)

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
  6.3% CHEGA (nc)
  6.3% IL (+1.1)
  4.9% BE (-0.1)
  4.5% CDU (-0.5)
  1.6% PAN (-0.3)
  1.6% Livre (+0.1)
  1.2% CDS (+0.2)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2022, 05:58:52 PM
PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

If my research is correct, this is the first poll since June 2012 that has the rightwing parties ahead of the leftwing parties.

P.S.: Sócrates is back. He appeared tonight on CNN Portugal to talk about his new "battle front" against the judge who investigated him. He now says that the judge was illegally picked and that everything surrounding the course of the investigation was illegal. He also gave a little word to Costa, saying that if wants a majority, he should not trash the only majority the PS won (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/geral/jose-socrates-sobre-costa-quem-quer-maioria-absoluta-talvez-devesse-comecar-por-nao-desmerecer-a-unica-que-o-ps-teve/20220121/61eb2e710cf21a10a41af3f5), in 2005 under Sócrates.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 21, 2022, 06:37:31 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/sondagem/rui-rio/tracking-poll-ps-e-psd-taco-a-taco-mas-um-sobe-e-outro-desce-ha-um-novo-candidato-a-terceira-forca-politica-e-nao-e-o-be-nem-a-cdu/20220121/61eafcb90cf2c7ea0f148a02)

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
  6.3% CHEGA (nc)
  6.3% IL (+1.1)
  4.9% BE (-0.1)
  4.5% CDU (-0.5)
  1.6% PAN (-0.3)
  1.6% Livre (+0.1)
  1.2% CDS (+0.2)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 21, 2022, 07:00:12 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/sondagem/rui-rio/tracking-poll-ps-e-psd-taco-a-taco-mas-um-sobe-e-outro-desce-ha-um-novo-candidato-a-terceira-forca-politica-e-nao-e-o-be-nem-a-cdu/20220121/61eafcb90cf2c7ea0f148a02)

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
  6.3% CHEGA (nc)
  6.3% IL (+1.1)
  4.9% BE (-0.1)
  4.5% CDU (-0.5)
  1.6% PAN (-0.3)
  1.6% Livre (+0.1)
  1.2% CDS (+0.2)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.
I would guess a left-wing majority. CDS votes wouldn't result in any MP and IL and (especially) Chega would also have many wasted votes in rural constituencies.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2022, 07:03:12 PM
If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

Actually, if this was the final result, the PSD would win the most seats, while the PS would win more votes. Using this simulator: https://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.html, the PSD would win 97 seats, and the PS 94, with the total seats for the rightwing at 118 and 112 for the leftwing. This difference can happen as the PSD is strong in small districts and could win crucial seats from the PS in these areas, while the PS gains a lot of votes in the heavily populated districts of Lisbon and Setúbal. Because this is a parliamentary election, the party with the most seats wins, even though they would lose the popular vote. Costa would probably resign and Rio would form a minority with the possible "blessing" of the PS, at least until 2024.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 21, 2022, 07:07:35 PM
If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

Actually, if this was the final result, the PSD would win the most seats, while the PS would win more votes. Using this simulator: https://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.html, the PSD would win 97 seats, and the PS 94, with the total seats for the rightwing at 118 and 112 for the leftwing. This difference can happen as the PSD is strong in small districts and could win crucial seats from the PS in these areas, while the PS gains a lot of votes in the heavily populated districts of Lisbon and Setúbal. Because this is a parliamentary election, the party with the most seats wins, even though they would lose the popular vote. Costa would probably resign and Rio would form a minority with the possible "blessing" of the PS, at least until 2024.
Interesting. This tracking poll is even worse news for the PS than it seemed.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 21, 2022, 07:22:18 PM
If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

Actually, if this was the final result, the PSD would win the most seats, while the PS would win more votes. Using this simulator: https://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.html, the PSD would win 97 seats, and the PS 94, with the total seats for the rightwing at 118 and 112 for the leftwing. This difference can happen as the PSD is strong in small districts and could win crucial seats from the PS in these areas, while the PS gains a lot of votes in the heavily populated districts of Lisbon and Setúbal. Because this is a parliamentary election, the party with the most seats wins, even though they would lose the popular vote. Costa would probably resign and Rio would form a minority with the possible "blessing" of the PS, at least until 2024.
Interesting. This tracking poll is even worse news for the PS than it seemed.

I'm actually quite surprised by the sudden shift in the polls, was not expecting this. But, it's still early in my view. Until mid next week, Wednesday, there will be much more polls and by then, it's basically too little too late. Also, I have my doubts about turnout and how this could affect the outcome. The whole mess of the isolated voting could be a factor.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2022, 07:29:14 AM
A curious topic of this general election campaign: Cats and dogs... yep ;D


Quote
Zé Albino, Bala and Camões. Why did these names enter the campaign

During this week, the campaign was also dominated by a curious "dispute" on twitter surrounding cats and dogs. It started when PSD leader Rui Rio posted a tweet with a picture of his cat, saying that Zé Albino, Rio's cat, was "devastated by PAN's approach to PS". The tweet had thousands of likes and had responses from Rui Tavares cat, Camões, João Cotrim Figueiredo's dog, Bala, and even André Ventura's rabbit, Acácia, join in the debate. Rio's cat has become a sensation on social media, and this "animal debate" was even mocked in a talk show, similar to the daily show, here in Portugal by comedian Ricardo Araújo Pereira.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2022, 03:29:40 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/sondagem/rui-rio/tracking-poll-psd-ultrapassa-ps-chega-be-e-il-muito-proximos/20220122/61ec5fff0cf2c7ea0f14bde4)

Vote share %:

34.5% PSD (+1.0)
33.5% PS (-1.1)
  6.5% CHEGA (+0.2)
  5.7% IL (-0.6)
  5.7% BE (+0.8 )
  4.7% CDU (+0.2)
  1.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Livre (-0.4)
  0.8% CDS (-0.4)
  5.9% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 22, 2022, 04:00:57 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/sondagem/rui-rio/tracking-poll-psd-ultrapassa-ps-chega-be-e-il-muito-proximos/20220122/61ec5fff0cf2c7ea0f14bde4)

Vote share %:

34.5% PSD (+1.0)
33.5% PS (-1.1)
  6.5% CHEGA (+0.2)
  5.7% IL (-0.6)
  5.7% BE (+0.8 )
  4.7% CDU (+0.2)
  1.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Livre (-0.4)
  0.8% CDS (-0.4)
  5.9% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

Saw in my twitter feed that this is the first poll in six years without a PS lead :O


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: FredLindq on January 22, 2022, 05:20:32 PM
What would  a poll like this be in seats?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2022, 05:47:12 PM
Saw in my twitter feed that this is the first poll in six years without a PS lead :O

Yep, the last time the PSD was ahead of the PS in a poll was March 2016.

What would  a poll like this be in seats?

In terms of seats, it would be like this: PSD - 101; PS - 90; CHEGA - 11; IL - 9; BE - 9; CDU - 8; PAN - 1; Livre - 1. Rightwing at 121, Leftwing at 109.



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on January 22, 2022, 06:28:44 PM
I'm in Portugal for now but don't really speak the language (and am leaving soon anyway) so I don't have any sense for what's cutting through, but I wonder if the whole affair with people isolating due to covid being allowed to go out to vote has hurt the government by making it seem desperate and reckless. Certainly my dad was angry about it.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 22, 2022, 07:00:07 PM
I'm in Portugal for now but don't really speak the language (and am leaving soon anyway) so I don't have any sense for what's cutting through, but I wonder if the whole affair with people isolating due to covid being allowed to go out to vote has hurt the government by making it seem desperate and reckless. Certainly my dad was angry about it.

Hope your stay here is going well. :)

Well, the whole isolated vote thing is actually a big mess, but, unfortunately, it was expected. The Portuguese electoral law is quite restrictive in terms of voting, as you are only basically free to vote on election day. The rest of options are still quite restrictive. Even for early voting, you have to register. There's no mail voting or proxy vote. The media and pundits are, of course, criticizing the government for not planning the election and they cite what happened in other countries like the US, the Czech Republic, Israel, etc. Parliament and parties are also to blame because they didn't do a thing also, nor propose changes in November. The Attorney General is even advising the government to change the law all together in order to "liberalize" the way of voting, and the media is also pushing for that, but, as I Portuguese, I doubt that parties will change a thing and I would pay to see it, to be honest.

I don't know if this subject is hurting the PS, maybe it is. One can perceive as, like you said, as reckless and many accuse the government of doing things in a hurry and "above the knee". But, other things may be on voters minds: the NHS, economy and wages, social services. And in these topics, the government is also being heavily attacked from left to right. Plus, Costa's message of "give me a majority" may not be resonating well with voters, and could also be hurting him.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2022, 05:51:57 AM
Early voting day.

Around 315,000 voters are registered to vote early today. The number is well bellow expectations. Unlike last year, in the Presidential elections, where there were long lines, the media is reporting no lines of voters waiting and a very calm scene across the country. There are 2,600 polling station for early voting.

I myself will vote later this morning. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2022, 08:21:59 AM
Just came back from voting. No lines, in 5 minutes everything was done. The weather is quite good today, sunshine, 14ºC, no wind, and there was enough time for a little walk by the sea shore and now lunch. ;)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2022, 09:39:42 AM
It seems that 3 polling companies: CESOP-UCP, Pitagórica and Intercampus are doing an exit poll on early voting.

Not sure if the results will be released today.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2022, 02:14:43 PM
Polls for early voting are now closed.

There isn't data yet regarding turnout today, but in Lisbon city, until 6:30pm, almost 80% of voters, that registered between 16 and 20 January, voted.

There were few lines across the country, however in Oeiras city, there were lines in polling stations:


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2022, 03:22:55 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/antonio-costa/rui-rio/tracking-poll-psd-desce-e-ps-regressa-ao-topo-cdu-il-e-be-separados-por-decimas-cds-em-dificuldade/20220123/61ed915e0cf21a10a41b38f9)

Vote share %:

34.1% PS (+0.6)
33.5% PSD (-1.0)
  6.6% CHEGA (+0.1)
  5.5% BE (-0.2)
  5.3% IL (-0.4)
  5.1% CDU (+0.4)
  1.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Livre (nc)
  0.8% CDS (nc)
  6.2% Others/Invalid (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 23, 2022, 05:52:20 PM
Campaign events by the major parties:

PS - Socialist Party: Costa had very good receptions in Caxinas (Vila do Conde) and Guimarães city.



PSD - Social Democratic Party: Rio also had a very good reception in Guimarães city, where he campaigned during Sunday morning:



BE - Left Bloc: Catarina Martins held a big rally in Lisbon city.



CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition: João Ferreira also held a rally with lot of supporters in Lisbon city.



CHEGA - CHEGA held a walkabout and rally in Póvoa de Varzim, Porto district.



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2022, 09:39:01 AM
Costa is now open to talk with every party, bar CHEGA, after the elections:


Quote
Costa available to dialogue with all parties except one

With polls showing a neck and neck race for first place, PM Costa seems to be changing strategy. After weeks asking for a majority and calling the "geringonça" dead, in an interview to Renascença Radio, Costa is now open to talk with every party after election, with the only exception being CHEGA. Yesterday, BE leader Catarina Martins, "invited" Costa for talks on 31 January, and now Costa says he's open to talk with the leftwing parties in order to have a stable government. Regarding talks with the PSD, Costa said that the choice in this election is between him and Rio, but added that in a democracy, the country is also a common basis of understanding, thus leaving also the door open for talks with the PSD, drawing, at the same time, the differences between both sides.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2022, 12:51:56 PM
This country... seriously. Several people had their wallets stolen during the PS and PSD campaign events in Guimarães city last Sunday.  (https://ominho.pt/varias-pessoas-ficam-sem-carteira-durante-arruadas-partidarias-em-guimaraes/)


Quote
Several people are left without their wallets during partisan street parties in Guimarães

Quote
Several people were left without their wallets when they watched the party streets that took place, on Sunday, in Guimarães.

According to Guimarães Digital, of the Santiago Group, the PSP confirms that several complaints were presented, but without specifying the number for sure.

Also according to that body, there were people who managed to find the wallets, but without the money.

PS and PSD made walkabouts, yesterday, in Guimarães, with the presence of their respective leaders, António Costa and Rui Rio, clusters that facilitate this type of theft.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2022, 03:26:06 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/legislativas/eleicoes/tracking-poll-ps-sobe-e-afasta-se-do-psd-cds-anima-e-il-perde-folego/20220124/61eef1ba0cf21847f0a70e7b)

Vote share %:

35.3% PS (+1.2)
31.4% PSD (-2.1)
  6.9% CHEGA (+0.3)
  6.1% BE (+0.6)
  4.9% CDU (-0.2)
  4.7% IL (-0.6)
  1.6% PAN (nc)
  1.6% CDS (+0.8 )
  0.8% Livre (-0.4)
  6.5% Others/Invalid (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 20 and 23 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 24, 2022, 05:45:37 PM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:  (https://www.dn.pt/media/leia-os-titulos-de-amanha-do-dn-14523241.html)

Vote share %:

34.4% PSD (+5.9)
33.8% PS (-4.3)
   8.0% CHEGA (-1.0)
   6.6% BE (-0.8 )
   4.5% CDU (-0.3)
   3.2% PAN (+1.1)
   2.8% IL (-0.9)
   1.6% CDS (-0.2)
   1.4% Livre (new)
   3.7% Others/Invalid (-0.9)

Poll conducted between 16 and 21 January 2022. Polled 965 voters. MoE of 3.15%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2022, 05:40:52 AM
Campaign update:

- Rio and Costa are throwing attacks against each other regarding negotiations after the elections. Rio accuses Costa of "zigzag", while Costa says he never closed any doors to other parties. Rio will campaign in the South today, Beja and Faro, while Costa will be in the North and Center of the country;

- Catarina Martins, BE leader, campaigned in Espinho, Aveiro, yesterday, and heard criticisms from voters because of the rejection of the 2022 draft budget. (https://sicnoticias.pt/eleicoes-legislativas/catarina-martins-alvo-de-criticas-durante-acao-de-campanha-na-feira-de-espinho/)

- CDU temporary leader, João Ferreira, had a "misunderstanding" with PAN (https://www.dn.pt/politica/porta-voz-do-pan-da-por-terminada-troca-de-acusacoes-com-a-cdu--14521106.html) as in a speech, Ferreira said that PAN is the party of "artificial creations", and PAN suggested that the Communist-Green alliance were denying climate change. Ferreira then talked with Inês Sousa Real and clarified what he meant. Also, Jerónimo de Sousa is expected to return tomorrow to the campaign trail.

- CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, campaigned in Viseu city and said that Costa "smells of defeat" (https://sicnoticias.pt/eleicoes-legislativas/lider-do-cds-diz-que-costa-cheira-a-medina/) just like former Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina. Also, during last night, a CDS campaign car was vandalized in Faro city. (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1917513/parcialmente-queimado-carro-de-campanha-do-cds-vandalizado-em-faro)

- PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, is involved in another controversy as one of her farming companies asked to use dangerous pesticides in plantations (https://visao.sapo.pt/visao_verde/ambiente/2022-01-24-empresa-agricola-ligada-a-lider-do-pan-pediu-autorizacao-para-aplicar-inseticida-perigoso-e-usou-abelhas-estrangeiras-que-ameacam-as-portuguesas/). These events happened in 2015.

- CHEGA leader, André Ventura, is campaigning on increase support for former solders in the Colonial War, and has said that if he has more than 7%, he will demand cabinet posts in a PSD government (https://www.dn.pt/politica/-ventura-diz-que-com-o-chega-nunca-havera-acordo-parlamentar--14520035.html), while bellow that share there will be no deals and his party would vote bill by bill.

- IL is accusing BE of being "desperate" for asking for a meeting with the PS on 31 January (https://sicnoticias.pt/eleicoes-legislativas/il-acusa-be-de-desespero-e-de-ir-ao-sabor-das-sondagens/), and accused BE of having had policies, mainly on housing.

- Livre campaigned in Sintra city, yesterday, and their leader, Rui Tavares, said he also wants to participate in the meeting proposed by BE with the PS (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/livre-tambem-quer-participar-nos-encontros-a-esquerda-apos-as-eleicoes_a1379221), saying that the meeting cannot be just with the two, but with all leftwing parties.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 25, 2022, 08:51:23 AM
No matter what happens next Sunday, it seems all but certain that the CDS and PAN leaders won't hold their jobs for much longer...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2022, 12:15:15 PM
No matter what happens next Sunday, it seems all but certain that the CDS and PAN leaders won't hold their jobs for much longer...

If those CDS numbers hold up, yep, Chicão is gone, but regarding PAN, I have my doubts. However, there could be an internal war on PAN between the more radical wing and the more moderate one, but there's no main figure opposing Sousa Real within PAN. But, of course, all of this can change.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2022, 03:37:35 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/legislativas/eleicoes/tracking-poll-ps-aumenta-vantagem-para-o-psd-chega-sobe-il-volta-a-descer/20220125/61f058900cf21a10a41ba630) (corrected)

Vote share %:

36.7% PS (+1.4)
31.4% PSD (nc)
   7.5% CHEGA (+0.6)
   5.7% BE (-0.4)
   4.3% CDU (-0.6)
   3.2% IL (-1.5)
   1.8% PAN (+0.2)
   1.4% CDS (-0.2)
   1.0% Livre (+0.2)
   6.9% Others/Invalid (+0.4)

Poll conducted between 21 and 24 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 25, 2022, 06:25:26 PM
Early voting for people in nursing homes and in isolation started today, but with disappointing numbers:


Quote
General elections. About 13,000 elderly people in nursing homes vote in advance

Today started the early voting for people in nursing homes and isolated due to Covid-19. However, the numbers are disappointing. If in nursing homes, 12,791 people have asked to vote early, of those isolated only 397 asked for an early ballot. The drop can be explained, probably, by the fact that the government has allowed those isolated to vote on Sunday, especially at the last hour of voting, between 6pm and 7pm.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2022, 07:24:56 AM
Campaign trail update:

Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader, returned to the campaign trail in a rally in Baixa da Banheira, Barreiro, Setúbal district:



Also, PM Costa is in the middle of a "little" controversy between him and the Statistic Institute (INE) because of the 2021 GDP data. Yesterday, in a campaign event in Coimbra city, Costa announced that GDP grew 4.6% in 2021. However, INE reacted in a statement saying that they do not share GDP data with the government (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/eleicoes-legislativas/costa-revelou-valor-que-o-ine-so-vai-divulgar-um-dia-depois-das-eleicoes-ine-reage-nao-antecipamos-resultados-aos-membros-do-governo/20220126/61f0926a0cf21847f0a753f2) and that they haven't finished the work regarding the GDP numbers. In reaction to the INE statement, Costa said he didn't cited INE just used a number he has used several times in the campaign.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2022, 10:43:48 AM
Again, only in this country: A newspaper, Tal e Qual, made up a fake political party and people on the streets believe they were for real:


Quote
We invented a party and everyone believed
We put up billboards, distributed flyers, walked with flags in hand through markets, fairs and streets. A Tal&Qual incursion into the world of parties, which say little or nothing to people.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2022, 11:54:47 AM
Final early voting numbers: 285,848 cast an early ballot. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/legislativas-um-total-de-285848-eleitores-votaram-domingo-antecipadamente_n1379771)

The Interior ministry released the final numbers of early voting last Sunday, 23 January. Of the 315,785 voters that registered to vote early, 285,848 of them (90.52%) cast a ballot. The districts with the highest share of turnout were Évora (95.5%), Bragança (94.9%) and Castelo Branco (94.8%).


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2022, 03:36:38 PM
Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/legislativas/eleicoes/tracking-poll-aumenta-a-distancia-entre-costa-e-rio-ha-novo-empate-no-3-lugar-e-boas-noticias-para-o-cds/20220126/61f1a9110cf21847f0a778eb)

Vote share %:

36.6% PS (-0.1)
30.9% PSD (-0.5)
   6.7% CHEGA (-0.8 )
   6.7% BE (+1.0)
   4.2% CDU (-0.1)
   3.8% IL (+0.6)
   1.8% CDS (+0.4)
   1.6% Livre (+0.6)
   1.0% PAN (-0.8 )
   6.7% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 22 and 25 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

Also, yesterday's Pitagórica tracking poll had an error. It's PS 36.7%, not 37%. Already corrected the data in the post where the poll is posted.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Continential on January 26, 2022, 05:03:10 PM
Does Pitagórica have a left wing bias?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2022, 05:40:34 PM
Does Pitagórica have a left wing bias?

No, I don't think so. Pitagórica is, however, a polling company that has a lot of shifts between polls, and this tracking poll is like a rollercoaster: It started with the PS at around 10 points ahead of the PSD, then the gap closed and last weekend the PSD surpassed the PS, but since then the PS has grown again and the PSD dropped a bit.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 26, 2022, 07:29:45 PM
The campaign has entered in the last 48 hours.

The mood between PS and PSD is tense, very tense, with Rio accusing the PS of persuing a "shamefull dark campaign" (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/rui-rio/eleicoes-legislativas/rio-vira-o-jogo-e-devolve-a-bola-a-costa-e-um-dos-grandes-interessados-em-que-o-chega-tenha-um-grande-resultado/20270131/61f1adf30cf21a10a41bd879) against the PSD, while Costa is accusing the PSD of hidding their manifesto.

Rio is also furious with the PS because of a social media video where Rio accuses the Socialist campaign of perverting his words regarding the minimum wage. The PS campaign is hitting hard the PSD on the issues of NHS, taxes and wages (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/deve-ter-humildade-o-pingue-pongue-de-costa-para-rio/) as they accuse of being vague on these issues. Rio accuses Costa of lying to voters (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/rio-acusa-ps-de-campanha-negra-e-vitimiza-se-o-pior-que-pode-acontecer-a-um-partido-e-perder-e-perder-nao-e-morrer/) and says he's in favour of increases in the minimum wage, but with a robust economy that gives bigger salaries.

CHEGA is also a "weapon" between PS and PSD. Costa says that he's the enemy of CHEGA, that he's proud of it and that the PSD is being held hostage by CHEGA. Rio responds by saying that the more votes CHEGA has, the more likely Costa remains as PM adding that Costa wants CHEGA to weaken the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2022, 07:11:34 AM
The official election results page is now up:

https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

It has the list of candidates for each districts, parties/coalitions running, sample ballots, turnout updates during Sunday and after 8pm Sunday, will release official results.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 27, 2022, 02:09:09 PM
What polls? Was there any poll besides Pitagórica's and an Aximage poll earlier this month that had something like 38-31 with PSD voters? I think all the other polls only had

I don't think party structures matter much at all during the primary era. Nobody's going to vote because some guy they barely know at the Distrital supports this or that candidate. The causation runs the other way around.

Hi there Mello :) Welcome to the forum. Nice to see another fellow Portuguese poster around here :D

There was a RTP-CESOP poll that had Rio leading Rangel 48-41% in the PSD electorate. Intercampus did also a poll, but only the data from the overall electorate was released and had Rio up 49-34%. They didn't release details of the PSD electorate data.

I can agree that party local big bosses don't have the power they once had, especially when leaders were elected by delegates in the past, but they still have some power and can sway members to one side or another, maybe not the majority, but a pretty big portion who can still make or break.

I missed that Catolica poll, thanks.

Pretty impressive how not only PSD voters seem to be a good proxy for PSD members, as you point out; but how relatively small sub-samples seem to be representative (the total sample of that poll was 878, so roughly a subsample of ~225 PSD voters).

Does Pitagórica have a left wing bias?

No, I don't think so. Pitagórica is, however, a polling company that has a lot of shifts between polls, and this tracking poll is like a rollercoaster: It started with the PS at around 10 points ahead of the PSD, then the gap closed and last weekend the PSD surpassed the PS, but since then the PS has grown again and the PSD dropped a bit.

Their 2019 tracking poll was pretty good - perhaps the most accurate one?. Didn't have these wild swings - very unusual to see this on tracking polls. No idea if it's mostly noise or undecided voters were flocking to PSD earlier in the campaign and later deciders in the last few days are going massively to PS.

Their European elections poll was also very good, their local elections poll in Lisboa was widely off the mark but so were most. Not enough data to calculate house effects but they don't seem to have a bias.


Rumour has it today's Sic/Expresso's poll is going to show PS-35, PSD-33, IL-6, CH-6, CDU-6, BE-5, PAN-2, so it seems an aggregate should show a slight PS advantage.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 27, 2022, 02:43:45 PM
1 - I actually don't think a scenario where Chicão remains CDS leader is that implausible: good chance he's their only MP on the next legislature - that's probably the best case scenario at this point. And if that happens, there's zero chance he'll ever give up the job (except if, miraculously, he somehow manages to leverage that into a government position in the event of a Rui Rio right-wing government), regardless of who's in charge of the party.

Not really sure there are enough anti-Chicão members left to win an internal dispute in that scenario - I doubt many will be interested in the task in the first place.

Even if CDS elects no one - is the party worth saving for those people? Life as a political party without parliamentary representation is absolute hell in Portugal. Especially wrt finances. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any party that has recovered from losing AR representation? PRD? MDP/CDE? PDC?  PPM? That party of pensioners whose name eludes me right now (ps - had to check: PSN - Partido da Solidariedade Nacional - elected Manuel Sergio in 1991, no MPs in 1995, officially dissolved in 2006)?

I do think the most likely scenario is that Melo, Meireles or someone else supported by that Portas group makes a last effort to save and revive the party. But it's not far-fetched they'll just give up and a comatose CDS just goes on into a slow death under Chicão or one of his close friends.

CDS was, to a very large extent, a coalition of IL and Chega voters - the trouble is that Chega has hitherto been too low-brow, too acerbic, populist, and too much of a personality cult for most CDS members on that more conservative, traditionalist, wing (not necessarily their voters though); and IL is a bit too radical, socially liberal, strident, for those on the more liberal wing (once again, not necessarily the voters).

From Monday, they'll have larger parliamentary groups, will presumably moderate the tone (especially if they're in a majority), gain respectability - hardly surprising if, after taking over their voters, they (along with PSD) also capture what has always been CDS' biggest asset, their cadres and influencers. And this effect will be compounded if Rio becomes PM.

2 - Extremely sceptical that the entire infected/quarantined voters kerfuffle had any sort of non-negligible impact. I don't think the topic had any staying power and it didn't seem the criticism was particularly focused on the government/PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2022, 03:44:54 PM
Big polling dump:

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/sondagem-da-universidade-catolica-ps-cai-mas-segura-maioria-de-36-face-a-psd-estacionado-nos-33_n1380060)

Vote share %:

36% PS (-1), 95/105 seats
33% PSD (nc), 89/99
   6% IL (+1), 5/10
   6% CHEGA (nc), 7/9
   6% BE (+1), 6/13
   5% CDU (-1), 4/10
   2% Livre (nc), 1/2
   2% CDS (nc), 0/2
   2% PAN (nc), 1/2
   2% Others/Invalid (-1)

Poll conducted between 19 and 26 January 2022. Polled 2,192 voters. MoE of 2.10%.

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:  (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/sondagem-expresso-sic-da-empate-na-luta-pelo-governo-pelo-3o-lugar-e-por-uma-maioria-pantano-a-vista/)

Vote share %:

35% PS (-3), 92/106 seats
33% PSD (+2), 87/101
   6% CHEGA (-1), 6/12
   6% IL (+2), 7/13
   6% CDU (nc), 6/12
   5% BE (nc), 4/10
   2% PAN (nc), 1/3
   1% CDS (-1), 0/1
   1% Livre (new), 0/1
   2% Others (+1), 0
  3% Blank/Invalid (-1)

Poll conducted between 18 and 24 January 2022. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.10%.

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/legislativas/eleicoes/tracking-poll-psd-diminui-distancia-para-o-ps-e-pela-primeira-vez-o-chega-nao-e-3-nem-4/20220127/61f2f9d10cf2cc58e7df9af3)

Vote share %:

36.7% PS (+0.1)
31.3% PSD (+0.4)
   6.1% BE (-0.6)
   5.7% CDU (+1.5)
   5.1% CHEGA (-1.6)
   4.3% IL (+0.5)
   2.1% CDS (+0.3)
   1.8% Livre (+0.2)
   1.0% PAN (nc)
   6.1% Others/Invalid (-0.6)

Poll conducted between 23 and 26 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2022, 05:48:45 PM
Hi there Mello. Nice to hear from you again. Hope you will post here more in the next few days. :)

Yeah, CDS is really feeling the heat from the divisions on the right of the PSD. CDS was for decades the "home" of those not aligned with the PSD: Conservatives, Liberals, and so on. You're right, that with the surge of IL and CHEGA, CDS has lost its market, so to speak, and, I wrote this here some time ago, the departure of Paulo Portas was traumatic for CDS. His exit for the leadership left a deep void in the party, as basically Portas was CDS, and CDS was Portas. We'll see if they elect MPs, normally polls underpoll CDS by a lot, we'll see.

I don't see CHEGA's new parliamentary caucus to become more moderate in tone. In fact, because CHEGA is just Ventura, we're not sure what kind of people will be elected and how will they react. We have the example of the Azores, where the party basically collapsed, and CHEGA is a very weird party, without Ventura holding things up, the party wouldn't last for a day.

The isolated/infected vote controversy may have hurt the whole of the system, rather than just the government. I mean, almost every country in the world prepared for elections during Covid, while here nothing was basically done. However, will this impact turnout? Will some voting blocks be fearfull of voting thus hurting some parties, and benefiting other? Only on election day we will know.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2022, 07:23:23 PM
Last 24 hours of the campaign.

PS and PSD campaign events in Porto city: (PS yesterday, PSD this Thursday afternoon, all in the same street, Saint Catherine Street, a busy commercial street)

PS - Socialist Party


PSD - Social Democratic Party


This Friday, the PSD will close its campaign in Lisbon, the PS will be again in Porto, BE will also be in Porto, CDU will close in Braga, CDS and PAN also in Lisbon as well CHEGA and IL.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2022, 06:27:08 AM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:  (https://sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/2022/01/28/sondagem-janeiro-2022-para-sic-expresso/)

Big age gap in this poll:

18-24 years old: (10% of the electorate)

24% PSD
  8% PS
  8% BE
  6% IL
  5% CHEGA
  2% PAN
  1% CDU
  1% CDS
45% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

25-44 years old: (28%)

22% PS
20% PSD
  9% IL
  7% CHEGA
  5% BE
  5% CDU
  2% PAN
  1% CDS
29% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

45-64 years old: (35%)

31% PS
30% PSD
  5% CHEGA
  3% BE
  3% IL
  2% CDU
  1% PAN
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
23% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

65+ years old: (27%)

38% PS
25% PSD
  9% CDU
  2% CHEGA
  2% BE
  2% IL
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
20% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

Poll conducted between 18 and 24 January 2022. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.10%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2022, 11:03:24 AM
Campaign update:

- The last day of the campaign is being marked by the words of Augusto Santos Silva, Foreign minister, that in a TV interview said that the most likely outcome of the elections may be a "gentleman's deal" between PS and PSD (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/santos-silva-admite-acordo-de-cavalheiros-entre-ps-e-psd-para-cada-um-deixar-o-outro-governar/) in order for either one of them to govern with some stability. Rio has said he's on board with that idea, and is challenging Costa to say the same;

- Also, Ventura decided to make a surreal gesture and, last night, he decided to sing a song to mock Rui Rio. Well, he murdered the song:


- Regarding election day, around 1,2 million people are isolated/infected with Covid right now, not all eligible to vote however. A mathematician, Henrique Oliveira, told CNN Portugal that a very low turnout of those isolated/infected would benefit the PS and CDU (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/videos/se-as-pessoas-que-estao-isoladas-nao-forem-votar-no-proximo-domingo-o-maior-beneficiado-e-o-ps/61f3d8950cf21847f0a7c4d7), as these parties have a very strong base in older voters, while other parties like PSD, BE, IL and CHEGA have a much more younger voter base, that is the one currently being affected by the wave of Covid infections, and could be hurt electorally in this scenario.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2022, 05:44:53 PM
Last poll of the campaign:

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/legislativas/tracking-poll-psd-aproxima-se-do-ps-cdu-be-chega-e-il-separados-por-poucas-decimas/20220128/61f45cbd0cf21847f0a7de5d)

Vote share %:

36.6% PS (-0.1)
32.9% PSD (+1.6)
  5.4% CHEGA (+0.3)
  5.2% CDU (-0.5)
  5.2% IL (+0.9)
  5.1% BE (-1.0)
  1.7% Livre (-0.1)
  1.4% CDS (-0.7)
  1.2% PAN (+0.2)
  5.4% Others/Invalid (-0.7)

Poll conducted between 24 and 27 January 2022. Polled 760 voters. MoE of 3.63%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2022, 06:05:04 PM
Last campaign events of the main parties:

PS - Socialist Party: Costa held the usual walkabout in Lisbon city and ended the campaign with a rally in Porto city;


PSD - Social Democratic Party: Rio also held the usual walkabout in Lisbon city;


BE - Left Bloc: BE leader Catarina Martins ended the campaign with a rally in Porto city;


CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition: Jerónimo de Sousa closed the campaign with a rally in Braga city;


CDS-PP: People's Party: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos closed the campaign with a rally in their headquarters in Lisbon;


PAN - People's-Animals-Nature: Inês Sousa Real ended her campaign in Lisbon city;


CHEGA - Ventura ended his campaign with a walkabout in Lisbon city and a rally in the Lisbon metro area;


IL - Liberal Initiative: The Liberals closed their campaign with a rally in Matosinhos city;


L - Livre: Rui Tavares closed his campaign with a social media "marathon";



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2022, 07:01:36 PM
Well, it's over. The campaign is now officially closed.

Saturday is reflection day, where polling, political news and campaigning is forbidden.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: MaxQue on January 28, 2022, 07:07:19 PM
Well, it's over. The campaign is now officially closed.

Saturday is reflection day, where polling, political news and campaigning is forbidden.

Does that mean that if Ukraine is invaded or Macron die, they cannot report it until Sunday?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 28, 2022, 07:16:28 PM
Well, it's over. The campaign is now officially closed.

Saturday is reflection day, where polling, political news and campaigning is forbidden.

Does that mean that if Ukraine is invaded or Macron die, they cannot report it until Sunday?

No, no, just political campaign news. Nonetheless, it's a silly thing the whole reflection day. I sure hope that the next Parliament extinguish this day.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2022, 09:46:28 AM
President Marcelo calls people to go out and vote tomorrow and proposes changes in the electoral laws:  (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/29/politica/noticia/marcelo-deixa-apelo-voto-defende-revisao-lei-eleitoral-1993566)




In the traditional election day eve message to the people, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa asked voters to go out and vote tomorrow as, according to him, tomorrow's elections are "truly different". The President points that these are the first general elections during a pandemic , the first after a budget rejection and that in play are our urgent improvement in the quality of living, from health to everyday life. The President warned that without strong changes in the country, because if the country doesn't fight poverty and inequality, that were aggravated by the pandemic, it's like "drenching the sands of a desert with millions." Therefore, the President asked for the next government to propose a health emergency law and a full review of the electoral law in order to allow voters to vote at any time and with more options.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: buritobr on January 29, 2022, 03:48:18 PM
Social Democrat Party is center-right
CDU is left
These Portuguese political parties burn the head of the Germans!

At least for the Brazilians, it's not hard to understang the Social Democrat Party in the center-right


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Libertas Vel Mors on January 29, 2022, 04:31:49 PM
President Marcelo calls people to go out and vote tomorrow and proposes changes in the electoral laws:  (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/29/politica/noticia/marcelo-deixa-apelo-voto-defende-revisao-lei-eleitoral-1993566)




In the traditional election day eve message to the people, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa asked voters to go out and vote tomorrow as, according to him, tomorrow's elections are "truly different". The President points that these are the first general elections during a pandemic , the first after a budget rejection and that in play are our urgent improvement in the quality of living, from health to everyday life. The President warned that without strong changes in the country, because if the country doesn't fight poverty and inequality, that were aggravated by the pandemic, it's like "drenching the sands of a desert with millions." Therefore, the President asked for the next government to propose a health emergency law and a full review of the electoral law in order to allow voters to vote at any time and with more options.

What's the point of a "day of reflection" if political messages are still okay so long as they come from the President?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2022, 05:49:10 PM
What's the point of a "day of reflection" if political messages are still okay so long as they come from the President?

The President speaking during this day is more a "tradition" than anything else, but there's a big discussion about the point of the "day of reflection". The media actually only talked about that today, and how outdated the electoral laws are in Portugal. In fact, people who voted early last Sunday didn't had a "day of reflection", thus creating the debate of what's the point of this day anyway. During the last Parliament, the Liberals (IL) proposed a bill to eliminate the day of reflection but it was rejected due to the bill being proposed close to the 2021 local elections, but the receptivity in the major parties in eliminating this day was positive. So, maybe, just maybe, during the next Parliament there could be another proposal regarding the reflection day.

Social Democrat Party is center-right
CDU is left
These Portuguese political parties burn the head of the Germans!

At least for the Brazilians, it's not hard to understang the Social Democrat Party in the center-right

Parties in Portugal having misleading names is almost a tradition.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: buritobr on January 29, 2022, 06:13:49 PM
Which Portuguese party has misleading name besides the PSD?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2022, 06:24:34 PM
Which Portuguese party has misleading name besides the PSD?

There is CDS-PP, Democratic Social Center, which is a normal conservative party and not at all centrist. They added the PP in the 90's to its name to make it sound more conservative. There was also the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), which despite it's name being Christian Democratic, it was a far-right party.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 29, 2022, 07:22:56 PM
Election day has arrived.

In Portugal alone, more than 9,299,000 voters are registered to vote. There will be almost 14,000 polling stations across the country that will open at 8am (3am EST) and close at 7pm (2pm EST). Polls in Azores will close one hour later due to time difference. People isolated or infected with Covid are allowed to vote and for these voters, it's recommended to vote in the last hour of voting, between 6pm and 7pm, but there will be no control.

At 8pm, TV networks will release exit polls.

The official results website: https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 06:48:03 AM
Polls opened a few hours ago.

Several party leaders have already voted, however PAN leader Inês Sousa Real has created a minor controversy by voting with a cloth mask, and not with a FFP2 or surgical mask as required by Health authorities.

There will be a turnout update at 1pm. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 07:27:13 AM
Each district has a different ballot, as some parties don't run in all districts, but this is the ballot given to voters in Santarém district:



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 08:00:43 AM
Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

12pm

2022: 23.27% (+4.44%)
2019: 18.83%
2015: 20.65%
2011: 20.01%
2009: 21.29%
2005: 21.93%
2002: 18.97%

Interesting...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2022, 08:09:41 AM
Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

12pm

2022: 23.27% (+4.44%)
2019: 18.83%
2015: 20.65%
2011: 20.01%
2009: 21.29%
2005: 21.93%
2002: 18.97%

Interesting...

Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 08:12:54 AM
Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?

It's both election day vote and early voting, I believe. At least last year, in the Presidential elections, polling workers, before polls opened, inserted early ballots in ballot boxes. I assume the same happened this time.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2022, 08:18:09 AM
Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?

It's both election day vote and early voting, I believe. At least last year, in the Presidential elections, polling workers, before polls opened, inserted early ballots in ballot boxes. I assume the same happened this time.

Okay. I'm just wondering if the increased turnout statistic is a mirage caused by the early voting, and if this is the case, then we won't get an idea of the true behavior until later in the day.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 08:21:19 AM
Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?

It's both election day vote and early voting, I believe. At least last year, in the Presidential elections, polling workers, before polls opened, inserted early ballots in ballot boxes. I assume the same happened this time.

Okay. I'm just wondering if the increased turnout statistic is a mirage caused by the early voting, and if this is the case, then we won't get an idea of the true behavior until later in the day.

Yes, we have had elections in the past where, even without early voting, turnout seemed to be growing but by the time of the 5pm update, turnout stabilized or dropped a bit. So, yeah, we'll have to wait until later in the day.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 09:07:54 AM
Election day has arrived.

In Portugal alone, more than 9,299,000 voters are registered to vote. There will be almost 14,000 polling stations across the country that will open at 8am (3am EST) and close at 7pm (2pm EST). Polls in Azores will close one hour later due to time difference. People isolated or infected with Covid are allowed to vote and for these voters, it's recommended to vote in the last hour of voting, between 6pm and 7pm, but there will be no control.

At 8pm, TV networks will release exit polls.

The official results website: https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

Thanks.  Any link exit polls to be expected? Any live streams where one can see the exit polls at 2PM EST ?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 09:19:06 AM
Election day has arrived.

In Portugal alone, more than 9,299,000 voters are registered to vote. There will be almost 14,000 polling stations across the country that will open at 8am (3am EST) and close at 7pm (2pm EST). Polls in Azores will close one hour later due to time difference. People isolated or infected with Covid are allowed to vote and for these voters, it's recommended to vote in the last hour of voting, between 6pm and 7pm, but there will be no control.

At 8pm, TV networks will release exit polls.

The official results website: https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

Thanks.  Any link exit polls to be expected? Any live streams where one can see the exit polls at 2PM EST ?

Yep, here they are:

RTP1: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp1
RTP3: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3
SIC: https://sic.pt/direto/
TVI: https://tviplayer.iol.pt/direto/TVI
CNN Portugal: https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/direto

I believe none are geo blocked.

At 7pm (2pm EST) TV networks will give turnout projections, and at 8pm (3pm EST) exit polls will be revealed.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 10:04:12 AM


Big age gap in this poll:

18-24 years old: (10% of the electorate)

24% PSD
  8% PS
  8% BE
  6% IL
  5% CHEGA
  2% PAN
  1% CDU
  1% CDS
45% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

25-44 years old: (28%)

22% PS
20% PSD
  9% IL
  7% CHEGA
  5% BE
  5% CDU
  2% PAN
  1% CDS
29% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

45-64 years old: (35%)

31% PS
30% PSD
  5% CHEGA
  3% BE
  3% IL
  2% CDU
  1% PAN
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
23% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

65+ years old: (27%)

38% PS
25% PSD
  9% CDU
  2% CHEGA
  2% BE
  2% IL
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
20% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

Poll conducted between 18 and 24 January 2022. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.10%

Contra recent trends in some Western countries, in Portugal the right-of-center vote is younger, more female and more educated - although age is the only robust gap.  

sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Sondagem-ICS_ISCTE_Janeiro-22_final.pdf

sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Quadros_18-a-24-Janeiro-2022.xlsx



By the way, speaking of historical parties slowly dying, age tabs on this and other polls are increasingly ominous to the PCP. I suspect everyone at Soeiro Pereira Gomes today is praying -one would hope not literally but perhaps morale is that low- for either a right-wing majority or a left-wing majority that allows them to be opposition from the left.

Otherwise, their next leader - either Ferreira or Oliveira - will face even bigger headwinds to revive the party, even if they try to "modernize" to become more attractive to younger voters (and don't say silly stuff about North Korea and whatnot). A large part of their voting base is socially conservative rural voters - hence their positions on euthanasia or bullfights, and why they're relatively low-key in other social issues (they probably have the most socially conservative voting bases besides Chega and CDS and mostly because of abortion) - and therefore trying to gain ground with young urban voters becomes, at the very least, arduous; if not flat out insurmountable when they're forced to vote for the budgets and their strategy of strident/principled style of opposition to the government of the day's economic policy sounds sort of hollow. The PCP has vast amounts of money/real estate patrimony, and enough members truly committed to the caus, to hang on for a while but it's not simple to foresee how they turn their fortunes around.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 10:10:56 AM
Campaign update:

- The last day of the campaign is being marked by the words of Augusto Santos Silva, Foreign minister, that in a TV interview said that the most likely outcome of the elections may be a "gentleman's deal" between PS and PSD in order for either one of them to govern with some stability. Rio has said he's on board with that idea, and is challenging Costa to say the same;

Such an arrangement will last, *at most*, the necessary time to pass the government program and the budget for what's left of this fiscal year; I then expect a left/right ideological majority to rule for the remaining of the legislature, either via government coalitions, parliamentary agreements or a mix of both.


told CNN Portugal that a very low turnout of those isolated/infected would benefit the PS and CDU, as these parties have a very strong base in older voters, while other parties like PSD, BE, IL and CHEGA have a much more younger voter base, that is the one currently being affected by the wave of Covid infections, and could be hurt electorally in this scenario.

This is a very good point. I was thinking that it'd benefit the opposition parties because polls suggest their voters are marginally more enthusiastic about voting and CDU because their voters are traditionally very assiduous, but the age gap in the epidemic curve certainly changes things. Probably a very residual impact though. 


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 10:26:49 AM
Traditionally simple (non-weighted) last-week polling averages have been very accurate for general elections. Decimal points eliminated:


PS - 35 - [34-37]
PSD - 33 - [31-34]
Chega - 6 - [5-8]
BE - 6 - [5-7]
CDU - 5 - [5-6]
IL - 5 - [3-5]
PAN - 2 - [1-3]
Livre - 2 - [1-2]
CDS - 2 - [1-2]

---

Those with a preference for more complex modeling (and FAR less proven) can check
jrdaniel.shinyapps.io/paragrafo/

Controlled for pollster quality, sample size and house effect; extrapolated to electoral districts by weighting the polls internal tabs for regions (mind uncertainty and size effect, those are very small subsamples).

gyazo.com/0d7bb00addc4811385566a4a2a945548.png


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2022, 10:33:41 AM
^ I'm not sure if you are having trouble with links/images since you are a new user, but the gyazo takes one to a online models results. And as we saw when the PSD drew level with PS for a moment last week, the modeled distribution suggests anything less than a 2% PS lead could be a nail-biter. A popular vote/seat count winner difference would be an interesting result that's for sure.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 10:39:03 AM
Each district has a different ballot, as some parties don't run in all districts, but this is the ballot given to voters in Santarém district:

Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 10:55:20 AM
^ I'm not sure if you are having trouble with links/images since you are a new user, but the gyazo takes one to a online models results. And as we saw when the PSD drew level with PS for a moment last week, the modeled distribution suggests anything less than a 2% PS lead could be a nail-biter. A popular vote/seat count winner difference would be an interesting result that's for sure.

Yeah, I am blocked. The gyazo wasn't supposed to be there; it's merely a jrdaniel.shinyapps.io/paragrafo/ main page screencap which I added to check if images bypassed the block.

And yeah, PSD voter dispersion should be more efficient if it's close. In the case of a very close election, it can go down to which small party, if any, elects from the 9/10 seat districts like Coimbra, Leiria, Faro, Santarém.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 11:04:29 AM
At the same time the election is happening, the Assembly of the Republic website was hacked (https://www.publico.pt/2022/01/30/sociedade/noticia/grupo-atacou-impresa-reivindica-novo-ataque-informatico-base-dados-parlamento-1993615). The police is investigating if sensitive info was stolen.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 11:11:31 AM
Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Farmlands on January 30, 2022, 11:33:19 AM
Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.

Are you sure? Fortunately, everyone was dressed normally in both the poll stations I went to today here in Porto, with the disinfectant at the entrance, and I wasn't aware it was supposed to be any other way.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 11:35:32 AM
Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.

Are you sure? Everyone was dressed normally in both the poll stations I went to today here in Porto, thank goodness, with the disinfectant at the entrance, and I wasn't aware it was supposed to be any other way.

This is what I saw in the TV coverage, some polling workers have the white suits on already, while others don't. Some say that after 6pm, they will put them on as more infected/isolated voters could show up.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 12:00:29 PM
Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

4pm

2022: 45.66% (+7.07%)
2019: 38.59%
2015: 44.38%
2011: 41.98%
2009: 43.30%
2005: 50.90%
2002: 45.87%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2022, 12:05:18 PM
Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

4pm

2022: 45.66% (+7.07%)
2019: 38.59%
2015: 44.38%
2011: 41.98%
2009: 43.30%
2005: 50.90%
2002: 45.87%


If the early vote was hypothetically skewing this count, then the percent increase would be going down, not up. Only other way I could think to explain this beyond increased enthusiasm is the desire to avoid the "covid hours" right before polls close. So it looks like voters are energized.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 12:25:55 PM
Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

4pm

2022: 45.66% (+7.07%)
2019: 38.59%
2015: 44.38%
2011: 41.98%
2009: 43.30%
2005: 50.90%
2002: 45.87%


If the early vote was hypothetically skewing this count, then the percent increase would be going down, not up. Only other way I could think to explain this beyond increased enthusiasm is the desire to avoid the "covid hours" right before polls close. So it looks like voters are energized.

I believe this 45.66% data includes the overseas voters, so you have around 4,940,000 ballots cast. With Portugal alone, this gives us a turnout of around 53% at 4pm, if again, I'm correct and the overseas voters are included in the registered tally.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: DL on January 30, 2022, 12:31:14 PM
Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 12:35:42 PM
Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Estrella on January 30, 2022, 12:41:31 PM
Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 12:46:44 PM
Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.

Not really, in my opinion. Even before the surge of IL and CHEGA, the PSD always polled well with young voters, while the PS had, and still has, a lot of difficulties in this section of the electorate. BE and PAN also poll well in the young electorate.

The Expresso/SIC poll had these numbers for the 18-24 age voters:
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:  (https://sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/2022/01/28/sondagem-janeiro-2022-para-sic-expresso/)

Big age gap in this poll:

18-24 years old: (10% of the electorate)

24% PSD
  8% PS
  8% BE
  6% IL
  5% CHEGA
  2% PAN
  1% CDU
  1% CDS
45% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

(...)

Poll conducted between 18 and 24 January 2022. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.10%

Maybe, there's a lot of anti-PS vote in the younger base of the electorate, and they tend to vote PSD as it's the only party that can beat the PS, while IL, BE and CHEGA have also a strong showing also.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 01:01:38 PM
6pm, isolated/infected voters can now vote.

Polls close in one hour, at 7pm.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 01:06:16 PM
Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.

It's a ghastly, modern-looking, 'Junta de Freguesia' building, with those elongated windows near the ceiling, like horizontal arrowslits, and artificial lighting. They seem to have removed most furniture/decor, which enhanced that clinical feeling. I understand why they were wearing the suits, but the result was still that amusing ambiance.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2022, 01:09:48 PM
Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.

The subtext here is that it is 'usual' for parties alligned with the left to do well with the youth. But it is also worth remembering that (sometimes once) big Socialist/Labour/SPD-style parties in Europe are often pensioner parties. There are are variety of reasons for this that have been discussed elsewhere, but this feature is why some parties like the PvDA are in seemingly terminal decline and the youth is nested with other parties.

One unique reason why this exists in Portugal though is cause if you are over 60 years old, you are likely to have spent some time of your life before, during, or right after the Revolution, which will forever color an individuals perspective in a way unimaginable to subsequent generations.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 01:16:28 PM
Looking at the TV coverage, polling stations are quite empty now, with very few voters now casting ballots.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Farmlands on January 30, 2022, 01:46:24 PM
Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.

The subtext here is that it is 'usual' for parties alligned with the left to do well with the youth. But it is also worth remembering that (sometimes once) big Socialist/Labour/SPD-style parties in Europe are often pensioner parties. There are are variety of reasons for this that have been discussed elsewhere, but this feature is why some parties like the PvDA are in seemingly terminal decline and the youth is nested with other parties.

One unique reason why this exists in Portugal though is cause if you are over 60 years old, you are likely to have spent some time of your life before, during, or right after the Revolution, which will forever color an individuals perspective in a way unimaginable to subsequent generations.

It's pretty common here that whoever senior people first voted for after the Carnation Revolution is the party they've stuck with for all their life, as I can personally attest to. In my grandma's case, she's a convicted egalitarian, so that's the PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 01:56:13 PM
4 minutes until the closing of polls in mainland Portugal and Madeira.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 02:02:00 PM
Polls are now closed in mainland Portugal and Madeira. Still open in the Azores.

Turnout projections:

RTP1: 46-51%
SIC: 51-55%
TVI: 56-60%*
CMTV: 50-53%

* I believe it's only for Portugal alone, not counting the overseas.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 02:07:32 PM
There's an anti-Covid restrictions protest in front of the PS headquarters.

Looking at RTP, Costa's car has stopped in a near street to find out go will he enter the hotel where the party will convene this election night.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: buritobr on January 30, 2022, 02:12:13 PM
So, the omicron didn't reduce the turnout, which was higher than it was in the last pre covid election


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 02:22:56 PM
So, the omicron didn't reduce the turnout, which was higher than it was in the last pre covid election

We'll have to wait and see. It points to a reduction, by I remember in 2015 that everyone was talking that turnout increased, but when the ballots were counted, turnout actually dropped.

Let's wait and see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 02:40:57 PM
20 minutes until the exit polls.

Looking at the mood in the PS and PSD headquarters, things may not be very good for the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 02:46:45 PM
14 minutes...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 02:47:57 PM
Leaked exit poll results have been showing PS overperforming and PSD underperforming re: last week polls all day.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 02:49:49 PM
Leaked exit poll results have been showing PS overperforming and PSD underperforming re: last week polls all day.

Yep, From what I've seen PSD at around 31-32%, PS at around 39%. We'll see.

Also, when the first results are released, at 8pm, the PS final result is normally 1% bellow the first numbers, while the PSD droops around 5-6%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Logical on January 30, 2022, 02:51:14 PM
If true then we have a rerun of the 2021 Canadian election haha.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on January 30, 2022, 02:54:55 PM
Leaked exit poll results have been showing PS overperforming and PSD underperforming re: last week polls all day.

Like I said watch Costa snag his majority like a boss.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on January 30, 2022, 02:59:46 PM
If true then we have a rerun of the 2021 Canadian election haha.

To be fair the Conservatives did do quite well as a percentage, they just got rolled by the grits in too many marginal ridings. This appears to be the PS with a strong rally and finish.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 02:59:51 PM
Here we go...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 03:01:03 PM
TV projections:

PS wins. Absolute majority is in reach, but unlikely.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: buritobr on January 30, 2022, 03:02:04 PM
TV projections:

PS wins. Absolute majority is in reach, but unlikely.

Where can I find?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on January 30, 2022, 03:02:31 PM
How bad does the PSD performance have to be for Rio to lose the leadership?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2022, 03:05:06 PM
If true then we have a rerun of the 2021 Canadian election haha.

Well not really. It looks like PS gained by cannibalizing BE and CDU compared to polls. Would be very funny if the "unworkable right coalition" has the majority but PS has a commanding lead.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 03:08:09 PM
RTP exit poll:

37-42% PS
30-35% PSD
    5-8% CHEGA
    4-7% IL
    3-6% BE
    3-5% CDU
    1-3% CDS
    1-3% PAN
    1-3% Livre

SIC exit poll:

37.4-41.4% PS
26.9-30.9% PSD
    5.0-8.0% CHEGA
    4.7-7.7% IL
    3.0-6.0% BE
    3.0-6.0% CDU
    0.4-3.1% PAN
    0.6-2.6% CDS
    0.4-2.4% Livre


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 30, 2022, 03:08:19 PM
How bad does the PSD performance have to be for Rio to lose the leadership?

I think if it's not very very close, he has to go.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: S019 on January 30, 2022, 03:08:41 PM
TV projections:

PS wins. Absolute majority is in reach, but unlikely.

Where can I find?

I'm watching on CNN Portugal, which offers a live, non geo-blocked stream


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 03:09:02 PM
RTP exit poll has PS at 37-42 and PSD at 30-35.  Clear PS win.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 30, 2022, 03:09:09 PM
If true then we have a rerun of the 2021 Canadian election haha.

Well not really. It looks like PS gained by cannibalizing BE and CDU compared to polls. Would be very funny if the "unworkable right coalition" has the majority but PS has a commanding lead.

The funniest would be if Rio then pulled off a reverse 2015 and beat Costa with his own move (also the scariest scenario of course).


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 03:11:33 PM
It seems the RTP exit poll does not cover the VBM.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 03:11:54 PM
CMTV exit poll:

37-43% PS
27-33% PSD
    4-8% CHEGA
    4-8% IL
    3-7% CDU
    2-6% BE
    0-4% PAN
    0-4% CDS
    0-4% Livre


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 30, 2022, 03:14:24 PM
Praying for a PS majority. Costa deserves it.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 03:15:54 PM
Both CHEGA and IL seem to have grown quite a bit relative to 2019.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 03:16:22 PM
Looking at the results so far, a PS majority may not be that impossible. With the results so far, I'm saying the PS could end up at around 41% and the PSD at 28%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 03:19:56 PM
I really like the results site which compares current results to 2019 results IN THE voting areas that has been counted.  Just awesome


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on January 30, 2022, 03:21:23 PM
I really like the results site which compares current results to 2019 results IN THE voting areas that has been counted.  Just awesome

Can you link it?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on January 30, 2022, 03:21:50 PM
I really like the results site which compares current results to 2019 results IN THE voting areas that has been counted.  Just awesome

Can you link it?
Me as well!


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 03:23:35 PM
I really like the results site which compares current results to 2019 results IN THE voting areas that has been counted.  Just awesome

Can you link it?

It was posted earlier

https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/resultados/globais

You have to click on "compare to 2019"


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on January 30, 2022, 03:23:45 PM
How bad does the PSD performance have to be for Rio to lose the leadership?

I think if it's not very very close, he has to go.
Do you mean "very very close" between the two parties, or between the two blocs? I expect you mean the former, but I want to be sure.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 03:23:54 PM
How bad does the PSD performance have to be for Rio to lose the leadership?

I think if it's not very very close, he has to go.

Yeah, it's over for him.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 03:25:45 PM
Praying for a PS majority. Costa deserves it.

If gets a majority, he will have to face a lot of things and he will not have scapegoats.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 03:26:11 PM
Looking at the results so far, a PS majority may not be that impossible. With the results so far, I'm saying the PS could end up at around 41% and the PSD at 28%.
how often are exit polls wrong or right?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 30, 2022, 03:26:11 PM
How bad does the PSD performance have to be for Rio to lose the leadership?

I think if it's not very very close, he has to go.
Do you mean "very very close" between the two parties, or between the two blocs? I expect you mean the former, but I want to be sure.

I meant parties. But he's out for sure after this.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 03:27:24 PM
So far no foreign vote. Do they usually lean Right or lean Left?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 03:29:04 PM
So far PS is on track to be a bit above 41 and PSD on track to be around 27.5.  Surprisingly large gap. CHEGA and IL doing well must be part of the reason.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Logical on January 30, 2022, 03:29:08 PM
Results from most rural areas are in. Clear cannibalization of the BE and CDU vote by PS.
53,98% reported
PS 43,27% (+5,12)
PSD 31,61% (-0,40)
CH 7,49% (+6,47)
BE 3,13% (-4,42)
CDU 3,67% (-1,44)
IL 2,52% (+2,02)
CDS 1,89% (-2,88)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2022, 03:32:04 PM
Huh, the exit polls are pretty good for Costa. And the early returns are even better. It really seems that his repeated claims that it was only a choice between him and Rio have been pretty successful in polarizing the electorate and doing so in the PS's favour. CHEGA may well be the only minor party to cross 5% which is pretty stunning.

Now I mostly wonder if Costa will get his absolute majority he was asking so loud for.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Logical on January 30, 2022, 03:35:01 PM
So far no foreign vote. Do they usually lean Right or lean Left?
European expats lean left while the rest lean right. Doesn’t matter though as PS and PSD will divide the expat seats equally 2 each.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 03:37:27 PM
Results from most rural areas are in. Clear cannibalization of the BE and CDU vote by PS.
53,98% reported
PS 43,27% (+5,12)
PSD 31,61% (-0,40)
CH 7,49% (+6,47)
BE 3,13% (-4,42)
CDU 3,67% (-1,44)
IL 2,52% (+2,02)
CDS 1,89% (-2,88)


For the PSD, you can add the PSD/CDS coalitions in Azores and Madeira.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 03:39:27 PM
Results from most rural areas are in. Clear cannibalization of the BE and CDU vote by PS.
53,98% reported
PS 43,27% (+5,12)
PSD 31,61% (-0,40)
CH 7,49% (+6,47)
BE 3,13% (-4,42)
CDU 3,67% (-1,44)
IL 2,52% (+2,02)
CDS 1,89% (-2,88)


For the PSD, you can add the PSD/CDS coalitions in Azores and Madeira.

Ah, did not notice them.  OK the PSD position is not as bad as I thought but still pretty bad.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 03:39:38 PM
Huh, the exit polls are pretty good for Costa. And the early returns are even better. It really seems that his repeated claims that it was only a choice between him and Rio have been pretty successful in polarizing the electorate and doing so in the PS's favour. CHEGA may well be the only minor party to cross 5% which is pretty stunning.

Now I mostly wonder if Costa will get his absolute majority he was asking so loud for.
could he be ps choice for there retirement job of president?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 03:40:55 PM
It seems the Right-wing vote went up significantly but could not stop as likely PS majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2022, 03:42:04 PM
So far no foreign vote. Do they usually lean Right or lean Left?
European expats lean left while the rest lean right. Doesn’t matter though as PS and PSD will divide the expat seats equally 2 each.

Admittedly the expat vote outside of Europe is so overwhelmingly right-leaning that PSD/PàF got both of its seats as recently as 2015 (and all previous elections going back up to the Guterres era it seems?). But of course this time the party is much, much weaker so that's not remotely in the cards.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 03:42:11 PM
Huh, the exit polls are pretty good for Costa. And the early returns are even better. It really seems that his repeated claims that it was only a choice between him and Rio have been pretty successful in polarizing the electorate and doing so in the PS's favour. CHEGA may well be the only minor party to cross 5% which is pretty stunning.

Now I mostly wonder if Costa will get his absolute majority he was asking so loud for.
could he be ps choice for there retirement job of president?

It depends of how popular he will be by then. Soares did that in 1986 after 2 years as PM with an IMF bailout and was able to win by a 51-49% margin. Cavaco Silva, after 10 years as PM, 8 with a majority, did the same in 1996 and lost to Jorge Sampaio, 46-54%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 03:45:00 PM
It seems the Right-wing vote went up significantly but could not stop as likely PS majority.

Yep, as of right now, but it's still early, the total right is at 44.6%. But, they will probably fall as more urban vote is counted.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Farmlands on January 30, 2022, 03:45:51 PM
It seems the Right-wing vote went up significantly but could not stop as likely PS majority.

The problem for them, but mostly the PSD, is that the D'Hondt system rewards the kind of left-wing unification behind the PS that seems to have taken place, while not favoring a fragmentation of the vote between the right parties.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on January 30, 2022, 03:49:47 PM
Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Logical on January 30, 2022, 04:01:31 PM
CDU will not win a seat in Évora for the first time ever. They’ve held at least 1 seat there since the first free elections in 1976.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 04:02:20 PM
Counting so far:

42.4% PS, 19 seats
32.3% PSD, 13
  7.6% CHEGA
  3.7% CDU
  3.6% BE
  3.1% IL
  1.8% CDS
  1.0% PAN
  0.7% Livre


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 04:03:47 PM
CDU will not win a seat in Évora for the first time ever.. They’ve won at least 1 seat there since the first free elections in 1976.

Everything points to that, and in Beja, CDU will probably hold their seat by just a hair.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 04:06:25 PM
PSD is set to lose Viseu district. Only Santana Lopes lost it in 2005.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 04:09:52 PM
PSD is set to lose Viseu district. Only Santana Lopes lost it in 2005.
And Bragança is oh so close.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 04:11:15 PM
PSD is set to lose Viseu district. Only Santana Lopes lost it in 2005.
And Bragança is oh so close.

So, so close. Vila Real is also neck and neck.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 04:12:49 PM
Going to dinner now. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on January 30, 2022, 04:17:59 PM
Enjoy your meal! Obrigado! Thanks for keeping us posted!


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 04:21:44 PM
Wow, and PS actually won Bragança and got an MP gain. By 15 votes, 0,02%


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2022, 04:22:11 PM
Wow, and PS actually won Bragança and got an MP gain. By 15 votes, 0,02%

Right now the only mainland district where PSD is ahead is not in the rural north but our old friend Leiria, just like 2005... still, even that looks close. If PS won it, it would represent an absolute first.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Logical on January 30, 2022, 04:22:35 PM
PS finishes ahead in Bragança by 15 votes, which gives them a highly favorable 2-1 split in seats. Costa marches closer to a majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 04:26:24 PM
Blank and null votes are also down which is symbolic of the polorization.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: kaoras on January 30, 2022, 04:31:12 PM
Why the polarization btw? It didn't feel like this was a particularly high stake election.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 30, 2022, 04:34:52 PM
How's the Trotskyist party that keeps nominating Instagram baddies as its PM candidates despite being led by a middle-aged professor doing?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 30, 2022, 04:40:07 PM
Why the polarization btw? It didn't feel like this was a particularly high stake election.
The polls made it seem like it was a close call. Turns out it wasn't.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 30, 2022, 04:47:48 PM
It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 04:48:34 PM
And PS just went ahead in Leiria. Could be a first. A clean sweep except Madeira.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2022, 04:52:06 PM
How's the Trotskyist party that keeps nominating Instagram baddies as its PM candidates despite being led by a middle-aged professor doing?

MAS (Movimento Alternativa Socialista) is currently at 0.11% - which I believe is still an improvement over their 2019 showing. Lol.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 04:52:17 PM
It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.
how is cds doing?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 04:55:51 PM
How's the Trotskyist party that keeps nominating Instagram baddies as its PM candidates despite being led by a middle-aged professor doing?

MAS (Movimento Alternativa Socialista) is currently at 0.11% - which I believe is still an improvement over their 2019 showing. Lol.

Yup +0,06

It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.
how is cds doing?

CDS has 1,64 down from 4,32


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Logical on January 30, 2022, 04:56:15 PM
It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.
how is cds doing?
Badly. You need about 2% to win a seat in Lisbon. They have 1,7%. It will be very close. They’re out of contention for a seat in Porto.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 30, 2022, 05:00:23 PM
It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.
how is cds doing?
Badly. You need about 2% to win a seat in Lisbon. They have 1,7%. It will be very close. They’re out of contention for a seat in Porto.

Só Livre will possibly get a seat (2.15% in Lisbon ATM) and maybe Pan too (1.92%)?? I hope both enter the Parliament while CDS doesn't.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Red Velvet on January 30, 2022, 05:02:56 PM
Pretty amazing results for CHEGA. From 1% in 2019 to 7% in 2022. Far-right slowly on the rise in Portugal.

The rise of IL and CHEGA affected PSD negatively, although not by much (stable numbers in comparison to 2019, when gains were expected). Meanwhile PS success is reflected on BE and PCP presenting bad results, especially BE.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 30, 2022, 05:03:30 PM
It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.
how is cds doing?
Badly. You need about 2% to win a seat in Lisbon. They have 1,7%. It will be very close. They’re out of contention for a seat in Porto.

Só Livre will possibly get a seat (2.15% in Lisbon ATM) and maybe Pan too (1.92%)?? I hope both enter the Parliament while CDS doesn't.
Yes, Livre and PAN will probably both win a seat, CDS is in doubt


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Boobs on January 30, 2022, 05:05:02 PM
PS needs about 43-44% of uncalled seats for a majority


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 05:06:08 PM
PS needs about 43-44% of uncalled seats for a majority

The large number of seats in Lisboa is going to work against them as the threshold to get seats there will be low (something like 2%)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Logical on January 30, 2022, 05:06:19 PM
It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.
how is cds doing?
Badly. You need about 2% to win a seat in Lisbon. They have 1,7%. It will be very close. They’re out of contention for a seat in Porto.

Só Livre will possibly get a seat (2.15% in Lisbon ATM) and maybe Pan too (1.92%)?? I hope both enter the Parliament while CDS doesn't.

Livre is actually doing better than 2019 so they’ll definitely make it in. PAN’s seat is at risk but they’ll probably make it in as well.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Boobs on January 30, 2022, 05:12:52 PM
Half of seats called

PS - 66
PSD - 42+2
Chega - 2
BE - 1
IL - 1
PCP - 1

115 left to "call". PS needs 50 more for a majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Velasco on January 30, 2022, 05:16:33 PM
The leadership of Costa is undisputed, regardless the PS gets a majority or comes close  to it

Is the PPM running?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 05:21:51 PM
The leadership of Costa is undisputed, regardless the PS gets a majority or comes close  to it

Is the PPM running?

Just running alone in Madeira, and running in a coalition with PSD.CDS in the Azores.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2022, 05:23:06 PM
The leadership of Costa is undisputed, regardless the PS gets a majority or comes close  to it

Is the PPM running?

Just running alone in Madeira, and running in a coalition with PSD.CDS in the Azores.

The latter of which has lost and fairly badly in the famous island of Corvo. Alas.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Velasco on January 30, 2022, 05:30:06 PM
The leadership of Costa is undisputed, regardless the PS gets a majority or comes close  to it

Is the PPM running?

Just running alone in Madeira, and running in a coalition with PSD.CDS in the Azores.

The latter of which has lost and fairly badly in the famous island of Corvo. Alas.

Possibly that's because the island's teacher is not the candidate


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 05:38:21 PM
Back from dinner and kitchen stuff.

Well, I live in a bubble, literally: My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim

42.5% PSD
32.2% PS
  6.7% CHEGA
  5.0% IL
  3.6% BE
  2.4% CDS
  2.2% CDU
  1.3% PAN
  1.1% Livre


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 05:38:38 PM
I'm catching up, football oblige, but I think PS will get an absolute majority.

In a way, sort of a silver lining for the parties at the Socialists' left.

As for CDS, I really doubt they'll elect anyone. As of now, the projection for the last MPs from Lisboa look like this:

Lisboa CH 1.93 46 Sim Pedro Manuel de Andrade Pessanha Fernandes
Lisboa PCP 1.90 47 Sim Duarte Le Falher de Campos Alves
Lisboa IL 1.90 48 Sim Bernardo Alves Martinho Amaral Blanco
Lisboa PS 1.88 49 Não João Miguel Maçarico Nicolau
Lisboa PSD 1.82 50 Não Alexandre Bernardo de Macedo e Lopes Simões
Lisboa PS 1.80 51 Não Ricardo Jorge Monteiro Lima
Lisboa PS 1.72 52 Não Vera Lúcia Raimundo Braz dos Santos
Lisboa PSD 1.69 53 Não João Carlos da Silva Bastos Dias Coelho
Lisboa       CDS  1.66 54     Não  Francisco José Nina Martins Rodrigues dos Santos




Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 05:41:36 PM
And PS just went ahead in Leiria. Could be a first. A clean sweep except Madeira.

1991 vibes... when Cavaco only lost Beja by 1,000 votes.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Boobs on January 30, 2022, 05:44:39 PM
The % of remaining uncalled seats needed for PS to win a majority has continued to drop, now just about 39%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 05:45:08 PM
PSD lost Leiria, a first for the party.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 05:46:12 PM
Most left wing parish in 2019, São Martinho, Alcácer do Sal, Setúbal, this year:

44,5 CDU (-18,8)
41,2 PS (+12,7)
5,3   PSD
1,6   CH
1,2   BE
0,8   CDS
0,8   IL

And the most right wing, Boalhosa, Ponte de Lima, Viana do Castelo:

43,1 CDS (-32,2)
27,8 PSD (+10,0)
22,2 PS (+18,1)
5,7   CH


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 05:48:08 PM
Most left wing parish in 2019, São Martinho, Alcácer do Sal, Setúbal, this year:

44,5 CDU (-18,8)
41,2 PS (+12,7)
5,3   PSD
1,6   CH
1,2   BE
0,8   CDS
0,8   IL

And the most right wing, Boalhosa, Ponte de Lima, Viana do Castelo:

43,1 CDS (-32,2)
27,8 PSD (+10,0)
22,2 PS (+18,1)
5,7   CH

It's quite astonishing that the two main parties are growing in terms of votes, but the total transfer of votes for the leftwing to the PS, is smashing the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 05:50:30 PM
The % of remaining uncalled seats needed for PS to win a majority has continued to drop, now just about 39%.

But a good part of the uncalled seats are in Lisboa and Porto where PS is unlikely to get a majority of the remaining seats.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 30, 2022, 05:53:47 PM
The % of remaining uncalled seats needed for PS to win a majority has continued to drop, now just about 39%.

But a good part of the uncalled seats are in Lisboa and Porto where PS is unlikely to get a majority of the remaining seats.

But, as explained, they don't need a majority. Just 39%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 05:57:26 PM
By my count, PS will get 13 more seats from Lisboa and 5 more from Porto on top of the 95 already called for them.  Yeah, that puts them at 113 already so I guess PS majority is going to take place since there are more seats for them to win from the various other places


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 05:57:32 PM
I estimate PS will end up with 116 to 119 seats. It's implausible they won't reach the majority as the freguesias still out shouldn't be particularly weak for them.

Difficult to see how Catarina Martins can stay as BE's leader after this debacle. Martins, Sousa, Rio, Chicão - 4 out of 7 leaders will soon be gone.

Corvo has had interesting politics the last couple of decades, with PPM, featuring the island's teacher, and CDS, featuring the island's mailman, often having great results.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 05:58:05 PM
CMTV just called a majority for PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 06:05:06 PM

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 06:08:14 PM

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.
Yup, in Seixal where I vote PS got its best result ever (46%), while CDU didn't even reach 10%...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Red Velvet on January 30, 2022, 06:09:17 PM
46 seats left and PS only needs 16 of those. They’re going to make it!

Bloco de Esquerda (BE) is clearly the main loser of this election. Not bad, it was a disaster for them.

Considering only the 184 (of the 230 total) seats distributed so far:

PS 100 (+11)
PSD 66 (+1)
CHEGA 8 (+8)
PCP-PEV 4 (-4)
I.LIBERAL 4 (+4)
BE 2 (-12)



Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Boobs on January 30, 2022, 06:11:56 PM
Seems like the remaining seat allocations are basically pointing to a majority.

Currently at 103 PS

If PS gets the same # of seats as in 2019 (this is a minimum, will certainly get more as they've gotten a higher % in all of these places)

+ 10 minimum Lisboa
+ 2 minimum Setubal
+ 2 minimum Expat
+ 1 Azores

118 seats.

Sorry for your cope Jaichind. But it was fun to watch.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 06:12:21 PM
The next Parliament will also be one the most bipolarized in recent history: PS+PSD are set to dominate more than 85% of the seats.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 06:12:44 PM
IL gets a seat in Braga as the last parish drops.

They'll end up the night with 8 seats: 4 from Lisboa, 2 from Porto, 1 from Setubal and 1 from Braga.

After campaigning heavily in Braga with hopes of getting back the seat they lost in 2019, the PCP gets 2.6% and the 6th spot. This isn't the slow death I wrote about earlier.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 30, 2022, 06:13:03 PM
It's over, I guess... Left-wing voters have made their choice. They prefer stability to ideological purity. Hopefully giving PS so much power won't backfire.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jeron on January 30, 2022, 06:13:58 PM

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.

Any thoughts on why the leftwing did this badly?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2022, 06:15:29 PM
Will the various Left-wing parties learn a lesson from this and form electoral pacts next election?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 06:19:08 PM

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.

Any thoughts on why the leftwing did this badly?

Two reasons, I think: Left wing voters didn't understand the failure to pass the budget, and were very upset with the political crisis that was uncalled for. And tactical voting, due to close polls, that actually weren't.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Red Velvet on January 30, 2022, 06:19:15 PM
34 seats left…

PS 105 (+11)
PSD 69 (-1)
CHEGA 10 (+10)
I.LIBERAL 5 (+5)
PCP-PEV 4 (-5)
BE 3 (-13)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 30, 2022, 06:21:55 PM
Will the various Left-wing parties learn a lesson from this and form electoral pacts next election?
It's unlikely. They don't get along, and with a PS majority they will have more room to breathe.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 06:27:06 PM
It's over, I guess... Left-wing voters have made their choice. They prefer stability to ideological purity. Hopefully giving PS so much power won't backfire.

I'm afraid it could. Cavaco and Sócrates are evidence. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Boobs on January 30, 2022, 06:27:40 PM
I estimate PS ends up with 120 seats.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 06:28:19 PM
34 seats left…

PS 105 (+11)
PSD 69 (-1)
CHEGA 10 (+10)
I.LIBERAL 5 (+5)
PCP-PEV 4 (-5)
BE 3 (-13)
Any chance peg breaks from the commies


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 06:29:33 PM
Rui Rio opens the door to leaving the PSD leadership.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 06:30:01 PM
RTP is also projecting a PS majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 06:30:06 PM
Will the various Left-wing parties learn a lesson from this and form electoral pacts next election?

Nah.

Livre and MAS are already BE spin-offs - egos and typical far-left sectarianism- and it's unlikely they'll go back to the fold.

Zero chances of any electoral pacts involving the PCP (besides the one with the satellite environmentalist fake party - which for the first time since its existence won't have parliamentary representation).  

The absolute majority is a silver lining to those parties. Not sure they'd resist a few more years of having to prop tPS governments


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Logical on January 30, 2022, 06:30:54 PM
Porto District (40 seats) is done counting.
PS 42,5% (+5,9) - 19 (+2)
PSD 32,3% (+1,2) - 14 (-1)
IL 5,1% (+3,6) - 2 (+2)
BE 4,8% (-5,3) - 2 (-2)
CH 4,4% (+3,8 ) - 2 (+2)
CDU 3,3% (-1,5) - 1 (-1)
PAN 1,7% (-1,8 ) - 0 (-1)
CDS 1,5% (-1,9) - 0 (-1)

PSD lost 1 seat despite increasing its vote share in an illustrative example of D’Hondt.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 06:34:01 PM
Back from dinner and kitchen stuff.

Well, I live in a bubble, literally: My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim

42.5% PSD
32.2% PS
  6.7% CHEGA
  5.0% IL
  3.6% BE
  2.4% CDS
  2.2% CDU
  1.3% PAN
  1.1% Livre
Seem inline with the national results is it a bell weather


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Rikschard on January 30, 2022, 06:36:13 PM
Porto District (40 seats) is done counting.
PS 42,5% (+5,9) - 19 (+2)
PSD 32,3% (+1,2) - 14 (-1)
IL 5,1% (+3,6) - 2 (+2)
BE 4,8% (-5,3) - 2 (-2)
CH 4,4% (+3,8 ) - 2 (+2)
CDU 3,3% (-1,5) - 1 (-1)
PAN 1,7% (-1,8 ) - 0 (-1)
CDS 1,5% (-1,9) - 0 (-1)

PSD lost 1 seat despite increasing its vote share in a fun example of D’Hondt.

That reminds me of the local election in Alenquer, Lisboa where PS lost 11%, but got a bigger majority.

Also if Costa actually pulls this off, it completely makes up for the underwhelming perfomances in 2015 and 2019. He'll probably break Cavaco's record as PM with most time in power.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: jeron on January 30, 2022, 06:37:29 PM
Back from dinner and kitchen stuff.

Well, I live in a bubble, literally: My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim

42.5% PSD
32.2% PS
  6.7% CHEGA
  5.0% IL
  3.6% BE
  2.4% CDS
  2.2% CDU
  1.3% PAN
  1.1% Livre
Seem inline with the national results is it a bell weather

It seems more like the opposite with PSD as the largest party and PS second


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 06:37:46 PM
Livre elects an MP.

I think the CDS will be wipe out.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 06:40:37 PM
34 seats left…

PS 105 (+11)
PSD 69 (-1)
CHEGA 10 (+10)
I.LIBERAL 5 (+5)
PCP-PEV 4 (-5)
BE 3 (-13)
Any chance peg breaks from the commies

If you mean PEV, it isn't a de facto independent party; rather a PCP appendage, a marketing ploy they concoted in the early 80s to 1) shut the door on a potential green party on the left that could compete to their votes 2) soften their image, allowing them to run and show on the ballot with anodyne name and logos, like CDU and a honeycomb instead of the communist and hammer and sickle (with the additional benefit of not losing so many votes to parties like the PCTP/MRPP and UDP that also had the hammer and sickle on their logo).



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Red Velvet on January 30, 2022, 06:43:00 PM
Livre elects an MP.

I think the CDS will be wipe out.

What about PAN? Could still get a seat? Only 21 seats left and it’s like this:

PS 110 (+12)
PSD 72 (-1)
CHEGA 11 (+11)
I.LIBERAL 6 (+5)
PCP-PEV 5 (-5)
BE 4 (-14)
LIVRE 1 (+1)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 06:43:47 PM
Livre elects an MP.

I think the CDS will be wipe out.

What about PAN? Could still get a seat? Only 21 seats left and it’s like this:

PS 110 (+12)
PSD 72 (-1)
CHEGA 11 (+11)
I.LIBERAL 6 (+5)
PCP-PEV 5 (-5)
BE 4 (-14)
LIVRE 1 (+1)

Could get just one in Lisbon, but it will be a close call.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mello on January 30, 2022, 06:46:12 PM
Livre elects an MP.

I think the CDS will be wipe out.

What about PAN? Could still get a seat? Only 21 seats left and it’s like this:

PS 110 (+12)
PSD 72 (-1)
CHEGA 11 (+11)
I.LIBERAL 6 (+5)
PCP-PEV 5 (-5)
BE 4 (-14)
LIVRE 1 (+1)

Could get just one in Lisbon, but it will be a close call.

I think she'll get in with some margin (relatively speaking, that is)

Lisboa   PAN   1.99   44   Sim   Paula Inês Alves de Sousa Real
Lisboa   CH   1.98   45   Sim   Pedro Manuel de Andrade Pessanha Fernandes
Lisboa   IL   1.98   45   Sim   Bernardo Alves Martinho Amaral Blanco
Lisboa   PS   1.93   47   Sim   Rita Mafalda Nobre Borges Madeira
Lisboa   PSD   1.85   48   Sim   Alexandre Bernardo de Macedo e Lopes Simões
Lisboa   PS   1.85   49   Não   João Miguel Maçarico Nicolau


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 06:56:02 PM
Lisbon is going to end up maybe like this: 21 PS, 13 PSD, 4 IL, 4 CH, 2 CDU, 2 BE, 1 Livre, 1 PAN, 0 CDS

And Setúbal: 10 PS, 3 PSD, 2 CDU, 1 CH, 1 BE, 1 IL

The final tally (exluding overseas) : 117 PS, 76 PSD, 12 CH, 8 IL, 6 CDU, 5 BE, 1 Livre, 1 PAN


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on January 30, 2022, 07:02:24 PM
I'm stunned that after all the Joacine nonsense, LIVRE managed to elect somebody. My guess is enough BE voters went for them.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 07:06:10 PM
Costa is about to speak.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 07:10:54 PM
Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 30, 2022, 07:12:50 PM
Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.
Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 07:15:01 PM
Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.
Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

No one believe it. The PS even stooped asking for a majority during last week because they thought it was scaring away voters.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 30, 2022, 07:31:38 PM
Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.
Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

No one believe it. The PS even stooped asking for a majority during last week because they thought it was scaring away voters.

I guess after the fairly stunning results of the autárquicas we were bound to have a surprise (or shall we say, a large polling error) on the other side... but yes, almost nobody could have predicted this. I think the most mind-blowing fact is that just one week ago a couple polls got out which had the PSD ahead. How things change!


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on January 30, 2022, 07:32:55 PM
Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Costa is really good at this.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 07:39:53 PM
Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Costa is really good at this.

At what exactly?

Also, Chicão is out. He resigned from CDS leadership.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 30, 2022, 07:40:38 PM
Yeah, I'm surprised too. Good on Costa, though honestly I can't be too thrilled that he's being rewarded for f**king over the left and going full neoliberal. And the next PSD leader will almost certainly be to the right of Rio.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 30, 2022, 07:42:15 PM
Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.
Yep. I was very wrong. Never even considered the possibility.

No one believe it. The PS even stooped asking for a majority during last week because they thought it was scaring away voters.

I guess after the fairly stunning results of the autárquicas we were bound to have a surprise (or shall we say, a large polling error) on the other side... but yes, almost nobody could have predicted this. I think the most mind-blowing fact is that just one week ago a couple polls got out which had the PSD ahead. How things change!
I do wonder if it was a large polling error or undecided people really broke off heavily in favor of the PS. The turnout increase might point out to the latter.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 30, 2022, 07:43:44 PM
Yeah, I'm surprised too. Good on Costa, though honestly I can't be too thrilled that he's being rewarded for f**king over the left and going full neoliberal. And the next PSD leader will almost certainly be to the right of Rio.
I wouldn't say he went full neoliberal, but this is not a great result for the PS left indeed. Electing Pedro Nuno Santos as the next leader after this would be a big risk.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on January 30, 2022, 07:48:40 PM
Remarkable to see PS carrying Leiria and Bragança, among other PSD strongholds.

Also, is CDS going to survive? If Rio steps down and PSD moves to the right, there's basically nothing left for them in terms of an ideological niche. They could either merge with PSD or CHEGA. The former seems more likely to me. Unless they do some weird merger with minor parties like PPM+PURP+Aliança but that wouldn't do much...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 07:51:45 PM
Yeah, I'm surprised too. Good on Costa, though honestly I can't be too thrilled that he's being rewarded for f**king over the left and going full neoliberal. And the next PSD leader will almost certainly be to the right of Rio.
I wouldn't say he went full neoliberal, but this is not a great result for the PS left indeed. Electing Pedro Nuno Santos as the next leader after this would be a big risk.

Well, Doctor V has a point. I wouldn't say the PS is neoliberal, but they will now be free to act as they please and looking at history, majorities normally start well, but end badly. The left will also regroup and be full opposition towards the PS, which wasn't the case of the last 6 years. The NHS problems, wage issues, the social services chaos, all were a bit "camouflaged" by the geringonça and they will not be anymore probably.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on January 30, 2022, 07:58:09 PM
And it's official: PS has a majority, PAN is in and CDS is out.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on January 30, 2022, 08:06:43 PM
Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Costa is really good at this.

At what exactly?

Also, Chicão is out. He resigned from CDS leadership.

Winning.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 08:10:39 PM
Kudos to Walmart_shopper. He was the only person to believe in a PS majority. Even the Socialists didn't believe in it.

Costa is really good at this.

At what exactly?

Also, Chicão is out. He resigned from CDS leadership.

Winning.

This was actually Costa's biggest victory so far. 2015 was a fiasco for the PS, 2019 was.. meh.. not that great, but now, 2022, was totally out of the blue. No one expected this.

Also, I didn't hear anyone on TV talking about, the total polling fiasco, again. Polling in Portugal is becoming a mess.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 08:29:54 PM
Final tally:

41.7% PS (+5.0), 117 seats (+11)
29.3% PSD (+1.4), 76 (-1)
  7.2% CHEGA (+5.7), 12 (+11)
  5.0% IL (+3.7), 8 (+7)
  4.5% BE (-5.2), 5 (-14)
  4.4% CDU (-2.1), 6 (-6)
  1.6% CDS (-2.6), 0 (-5)
  1.5% PAN (-1.7), 1 (-3)
  1.3% Livre (+0.2), 1 (nc)
  0.4% RIR (-0.3)
  0.2% JPP (nc)
  0.2% PCTP/MRPP (-0.5)
  0.2% ADN (nc)
  0.1% MPT (-0.1)
  0.1% MAS (+0.0)
  0.1% Volt Portugal (new)
  0.1% E (-0.2)
  0.1% PTP (-0.1)
  0.1% NC (-0.1)
  0.0% Alliance (-0.8 )
  0.0% PPM (-0.1)
  2.1% Blank/Invalid ballots (-2.2)

58.0% Turnout (+3.5)

In the next few days will post maps of parishes. :)


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 30, 2022, 08:34:46 PM
Glad that turnout was genuinely up, although 58% is still not a great result.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 08:39:08 PM
Glad that turnout was genuinely up, although 58% is still not a great result.

The "real" turnout is actually at around 65%. The voting age population is around 8,3 million, not 9,2 million. The 9 million figure is because many people who left Portugal in the last few years, didn't change their address and "officially" they still reside in Portugal, thus perverting the electoral roles.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 08:41:26 PM
Oh my God, this actually happened:

Someone put a crown of flowers in front of CDS heartquarters in their memory:


Some CDS party members didn't like the "joke".


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 30, 2022, 08:55:17 PM
Well, off to bed. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 09:03:41 PM
Remarkable to see PS carrying Leiria and Bragança, among other PSD strongholds.

Also, is CDS going to survive? If Rio steps down and PSD moves to the right, there's basically nothing left for them in terms of an ideological niche. They could either merge with PSD or CHEGA. The former seems more likely to me. Unless they do some weird merger with minor parties like PPM+PURP+Aliança but that wouldn't do much...
What’s the monarchist scene in true assembly like after tonight


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 09:05:24 PM
Oh my God, this actually happened:

Someone put a crown of flowers in front of CDS heartquarters in their memory:


Some CDS party members didn't like the "joke".
So what happen to there Mep do he jump to psd


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 09:08:57 PM
So PS L Chega  and the liberals are the winners tonight.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: mileslunn on January 30, 2022, 10:07:48 PM
How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2022, 11:04:24 PM
How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.
Reserve shy Tory


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on January 31, 2022, 01:16:21 AM
and as I do with these things, here's a fully proportional result:
 
Portugal (numbers may change)

PS: 98 seats (-19)
PSD: 65 seats (-6)
CH!: 17 seats (+5)
IL: 12 seats (+4)
BE: 11 seats (+6)
CDU: 10 seats (+4)
CDS-PP: 4 seats (+4)
PAN: 4 seats (+3)
L: 3 seats (+2)
MP*: 2 seats (-1)
AD**: 1 seat (-1)
RIR: 1 seat (+1)
JPP: 1 seat (+1)
PCTP/MRPP: 1 seat (+1)

BE (10.469 quotas) gets the last seat over ADN (0.437 quotas)

*Coalition of PSD and CDS-PP
**Coalition of PSD, CDS-PP, and PPM


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Continential on January 31, 2022, 04:40:24 AM
Oh my God, this actually happened:

Someone put a crown of flowers in front of CDS heartquarters in their memory:

Some CDS party members didn't like the "joke".
Someone should perform last rites near the CDS headquarters because seeing the reaction by CDS members would be funny imo.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: YL on January 31, 2022, 06:04:52 AM
How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.
Reserve shy Tory

Is there any reason to think that there might have been a "reverse shy Tory" effect here, in the sense of people voting PS but not being prepared to admit to this to pollsters?

The polls do show that there was a PS wobble followed by a swing back to them; could part of the error simply be that the swing back continued after the last polls were taken?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2022, 06:37:37 AM
How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.
Reserve shy Tory

Is there any reason to think that there might have been a "reverse shy Tory" effect here, in the sense of people voting PS but not being prepared to admit to this to pollsters?

The polls do show that there was a PS wobble followed by a swing back to them; could part of the error simply be that the swing back continued after the last polls were taken?

Polling showed a lot of undecided voters until the very last day, and at the last minute, many could have decided to vote in the PS in order to punish the leftwing parties and because of the PSD's indecision regarding a CHEGA support in a PSD minority. Between stability and instability, the voters picked stability at any cost.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2022, 07:05:44 AM
Maps. Most voted map by municipality:

()


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on January 31, 2022, 07:16:39 AM
How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.
Reserve shy Tory

Is there any reason to think that there might have been a "reverse shy Tory" effect here, in the sense of people voting PS but not being prepared to admit to this to pollsters?

The polls do show that there was a PS wobble followed by a swing back to them; could part of the error simply be that the swing back continued after the last polls were taken?

Polling showed a lot of undecided voters until the very last day, and at the last minute, many could have decided to vote in the PS in order to punish the leftwing parties and because of the PSD's indecision regarding a CHEGA support in a PSD minority. Between stability and instability, the voters picked stability at any cost.

It seems obvious that the polls last week showing PSD edging ahead scared a significant number of votes back into the PS camp. Maybe some parallels with a certain election 30 years ago there.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2022, 07:31:49 AM
How come polls were so off?  It seems like no one suggested a PS majority was even remotely feasible yet they got one.  Also wonder how BE and CDU now feel as their decision to vote against budget backfired massively.  Lost a lot of ground and now zero influence on government.  Also must have been massive disappointment for PSD as even though they were not favoured to win, I think most thought they would make a lot more headway than they did.

It does seem though those further left probably had many break late towards PS simply to prevent a PSD government is my guess.
Reserve shy Tory

Is there any reason to think that there might have been a "reverse shy Tory" effect here, in the sense of people voting PS but not being prepared to admit to this to pollsters?

The polls do show that there was a PS wobble followed by a swing back to them; could part of the error simply be that the swing back continued after the last polls were taken?

Polling showed a lot of undecided voters until the very last day, and at the last minute, many could have decided to vote in the PS in order to punish the leftwing parties and because of the PSD's indecision regarding a CHEGA support in a PSD minority. Between stability and instability, the voters picked stability at any cost.

It seems obvious that the polls last week showing PSD edging ahead scared a significant number of votes back into the PS camp. Maybe some parallels with a certain election 30 years ago there.

That is the theory, yes.

I just talked with a former BE voter, who voted PS in order to punish the leftwing, and a funny thing happen: he's now regretting his vote because the PS won a majority.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on January 31, 2022, 07:51:13 AM
This is also the first time ever the CDU/PCP loses the arch-communist town of Avis in a legislative election, right? Seems like the PS victory was not just very big but also very broad - plenty of such firsts.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on January 31, 2022, 09:35:30 AM
This is also the first time ever the CDU/PCP loses the arch-communist town of Avis in a legislative election, right? Seems like the PS victory was not just very big but also very broad - plenty of such firsts.

Yep. CDU was wiped off the map. Once again, we see strong CHEGA performances in some of the CDU strongholds, especially where CHEGA did well in the municipal elections too. It's not just old left-wing voters though, as their strength up North attests to as well.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 31, 2022, 09:54:54 AM
So wat do this mean fro the regionals governments thing that some in pa been wanting for a while


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2022, 09:59:15 AM
So wat do this mean fro the regionals governments thing that some in pa been wanting for a while

I don't know to be honest. Costa has said he wants a referendum on regionalization by 2024, but we don't know the mood of the country by then, or even if it will be the main issue for the government.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2022, 10:02:00 AM
This is also the first time ever the CDU/PCP loses the arch-communist town of Avis in a legislative election, right? Seems like the PS victory was not just very big but also very broad - plenty of such firsts.

Yep. CDU was wiped off the map. Once again, we see strong CHEGA performances in some of the CDU strongholds, especially where CHEGA did well in the municipal elections too. It's not just old left-wing voters though, as their strength up North attests to as well.

Curiously, the rightwing as a whole did very well in the Alentejo. PSD was neck with neck with CDU in Beja, and surpassed CDU in Évora and Setúbal. In Beja city, it was only the second time in 35 years, that the PSD polled 2nd place.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 31, 2022, 10:28:34 AM
is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, (https://www.dn.pt/portugal/ideal-monarquico-esta-a-seduzir-simpatizantes-do-bloco-e-do-pcp-8955969.html) there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy (https://www.marktest.com/wap/a/n/id~1650.aspx), while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, (https://www.dn.pt/portugal/portugueses-optam-com-clareza-pela-republica-1518829.html) had support for the monarchy at just 11%.
was looking up cause bored but why did true pcp invited the would be king to a event?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Local elections: 26 Sep 2021)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2022, 11:07:45 AM
is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, (https://www.dn.pt/portugal/ideal-monarquico-esta-a-seduzir-simpatizantes-do-bloco-e-do-pcp-8955969.html) there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy (https://www.marktest.com/wap/a/n/id~1650.aspx), while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, (https://www.dn.pt/portugal/portugueses-optam-com-clareza-pela-republica-1518829.html) had support for the monarchy at just 11%.
was looking up cause bored but why did true pcp invited the would be king to a event?

Maybe a bit of courtesy, but also, D. Duarte Pio is very pro-enviornment, and PCP has the PEV green wing, and he's also anti-Euro currency, which PCP is also against. So, a bit of both, I assume.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: VPH on January 31, 2022, 03:32:58 PM
I had no idea about the monarchists on the left. Reminds me a little of Nouvelle Action Royaliste in France or the left-Carlists in Spain.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: mileslunn on January 31, 2022, 03:51:45 PM
Maps. Most voted map by municipality:

()

Anyone able to do a left vs. right?  Be interested if a rural/urban divide as seems in German, Norwegian, and Portuguese elections parties on left won in many rural areas whereas in English speaking world, left is overwhelmingly in urban areas and also tends to win by much bigger margins than in those three while rural go for parties on right.  Is reason divide isn't yet as noticeable in rest of Europe.  Germany you saw it somewhat and it does seem some parties on left like German Greens, Red Party in Norway were very urban but others like Labour in Norway and SPD in Germany less so and appears PS has similar support in rural vs. urban.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: buritobr on January 31, 2022, 04:11:44 PM
Was this election good or bad for the left?
PS had 47.7% of the seats and now it has 51.7%. But the combined left had 61.5% and now it has 56.6%. PS gained 9 seats. BE lost 14. CDU lost 6.


Title: Re: Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: PSOL on January 31, 2022, 05:49:50 PM
Was this election good or bad for the left?
PS had 47.7% of the seats and now it has 51.7%. But the combined left had 61.5% and now it has 56.6%. PS gained 9 seats. BE lost 14. CDU lost 6.
Given the PS is being rewarded for austerity and corrupt machine politics, absolutely not, and the free reign they have now isn’t good. Generally being in opposition is usually better than a confidence and supply arrangement electorally, but the future looks very bleak with BE’s vote being more prone to cannibalization and CDU’s electorate risking to cease to be by naturally dying off or tuning out.

How s••• polling could get marginal support to bleed so much from both organizations is a disgrace and shows how terribly disconnected they are from the general populace. They clearly don’t have a lock on to their electorates at all.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2022, 05:56:00 PM
Anyone able to do a left vs. right?  Be interested if a rural/urban divide as seems in German, Norwegian, and Portuguese elections parties on left won in many rural areas whereas in English speaking world, left is overwhelmingly in urban areas and also tends to win by much bigger margins than in those three while rural go for parties on right.  Is reason divide isn't yet as noticeable in rest of Europe.  Germany you saw it somewhat and it does seem some parties on left like German Greens, Red Party in Norway were very urban but others like Labour in Norway and SPD in Germany less so and appears PS has similar support in rural vs. urban.

Here it is:

Left - Red; Right - Blue

()

The Right did well, as usual, in rural North and Center of the country, while the left dominated, as usual again, in the South. Some urban areas like Cascais, Aveiro, voted rightwing, but in Lisbon and Porto cities, the margins between right and left were quite close: Lisbon - 51% Left; 46% Right. Porto - 50% Left; 48% Right.

Overall, the left-right tally was the following:

2,874,591 Left (53.3%, 130 seats)
2,318,294 Right (43.0%, 96 seats)

The Left drooped 3.8% compared with 2019 and lost 12 seats. The Right grew 8.3% and won 12 seats, compared with 2 years ago.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on January 31, 2022, 08:31:59 PM
(...)but in Lisbon and Porto cities, the margins between right and left were quite close: Lisbon - 51% Left; 46% Right. Porto - 50% Left; 48% Right.

Full results of the two main cities in Portugal:

Lisbon


Porto


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 31, 2022, 11:21:55 PM
Anyone able to do a left vs. right?  Be interested if a rural/urban divide as seems in German, Norwegian, and Portuguese elections parties on left won in many rural areas whereas in English speaking world, left is overwhelmingly in urban areas and also tends to win by much bigger margins than in those three while rural go for parties on right.  Is reason divide isn't yet as noticeable in rest of Europe.  Germany you saw it somewhat and it does seem some parties on left like German Greens, Red Party in Norway were very urban but others like Labour in Norway and SPD in Germany less so and appears PS has similar support in rural vs. urban.

Here it is:

Left - Red; Right - Blue

()

The Right did well, as usual, in rural North and Center of the country, while the left dominated, as usual again, in the South. Some urban areas like Cascais, Aveiro, voted rightwing, but in Lisbon and Porto cities, the margins between right and left were quite close: Lisbon - 51% Left; 46% Right. Porto - 50% Left; 48% Right.

Overall, the left-right tally was the following:

2,874,591 Left (53.3%, 130 seats)
2,318,294 Right (43.0%, 96 seats)

The Left drooped 3.8% compared with 2019 and lost 12 seats. The Right grew 8.3% and won 12 seats, compared with 2 years ago.
who got the ten percent


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 01, 2022, 06:46:22 AM

You mean the remaining 3.7%? Other smaller parties and Blank and Invalid ballots.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 01, 2022, 06:58:48 AM
Party leadership changes:

- In CDS, Nuno Melo is considering running again for the leadership (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/nuno-melo-admite-candidatura-para-recuperar-cds-apos-resultado-tragico-14548095.html). He tried to run last November, but Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos didn't allow a leadership ballot.

- In the PSD, Rui Rio is preparing his exit from the leadership. His team will meet this week to set the timings for the next leadership ballot. Luís Montenegro, so far, seems the strongest name for the leadership.

- In BE, the mood is also very bad. Several party members are asking for the resignation of Catarina Martins.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 01, 2022, 10:12:11 AM
António Costa has tested positive for Covid-19. (https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/antonio-costa-testou-positivo-a-covid-19-e-esta-em-isolamento/) He is in isolation and will miss the meeting with President Marcelo to ask him to form a government. The meeting could still take place via videoconferencing or with someone representing Costa.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 01, 2022, 01:02:58 PM
PSD is considering asking for a recount in Bragança:


Quote
PSD wants to clarify doubts in Bragança and could ask for recount

The razor thin margin between PS and PSD in Bragança district, just 15 votes, is creating some doubts in the PSD. The party will ask for an explanation from the Interior ministry as, according to the party, when there was just one parish to be counted in the whole district, the PSD had a 63 vote advantage over the PS, but, all of the sudden, the PSD margin over the PS was reduced to just one vote. When the last parish was counted, which the PS won by 7 votes over the PSD, the PS lead reached the final 15. The local PSD says there are several doubts regarding the counting and will ask the Interior ministry if there were vote corrections during the counting or a computer bug. Only after that will they decide, or not, to ask for a recount.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Fubart Solman on February 01, 2022, 08:40:51 PM
Maps. Most voted map by municipality:

()

Why is Madeira a right-wing stronghold? Is it just because the numbers are inflated from the coalition that runs there?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on February 02, 2022, 12:31:21 AM
Maps. Most voted map by municipality:

()

Why is Madeira a right-wing stronghold? Is it just because the numbers are inflated from the coalition that runs there?
Seems to be more because of the coalition, Madeira’s 6 seats split 3-3.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: FredLindq on February 02, 2022, 05:04:28 AM
Has the party system in Portugal became more "European" Three centre-left parties (Left, Green and soc.dem.) and three centre-right (liberal, christdem. and nationalist).
Portugal: BE, CDU and PS and IL, PSD Chega.
Compare with Germany, Linke, Grune, SPD and FDP, CDU and AFD.
Spain Podemos, regionalist, PSOE and C´s, PP  and VOX.
Austria KÖP, Grune, SPÖ and NEOS, ÖVP and FPÖ.
Sweden; Left part, Greens , Soc.dems. and C+L, M+KD ans SD.
Belgium: PTB, ECOLO+Groen, PS+SPa and MR+VLD, CDH+CD&V and NVA+VB


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on February 02, 2022, 05:51:55 AM
Yes, the party system became more similar to the rest of Europe, but the CDU is not at all the equivalent of a Green party. The PEV was always a minor element in it and now they don't even have seats left. The Green equivalents would be Livre and PAN. The CDU (PCP in practice) can be better compared to the East German Linke imo: supported mainly by older people in a certain region of the country, very ideological/left-wing in some aspects to the point it harms them but not really "woke", directly threatened by the rise of the far-right and the death of its most loyal supporters.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 02, 2022, 06:03:58 AM
Why is Madeira a right-wing stronghold? Is it just because the numbers are inflated from the coalition that runs there?

Madeira has always been a rightwing stronghold, as the PSD never lost an election in the islands. Madeira has a lot of small land owners, and after the 1974 revolution, there was fear of the left from these people, and adding that Madeira is a very religious region, it was, and still is, fertile ground for the rightwing. Plus, Madeira was deeply marked by the rule of Alberto João Jardim, Madeira's President between 1977 and 2015, which completely shaped the island from a very poor region, to a major tourist attraction. He's a PSD member, and the party has, since then, a lot of support, plus, being a region with just 250,000 inhabitants, the PSD machine controls a lot of votes.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on February 02, 2022, 10:44:56 AM
Have the overseas votes been fully counted yet, and if so have any seat changes resulted?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 02, 2022, 11:53:42 AM
Have the overseas votes been fully counted yet, and if so have any seat changes resulted?

Nope, only next week. The electoral commission is still receiving mail ballots from overseas and the deadline is 9 February, next Wednesday. During the same day, they will start counting the ballots. In terms of seats, it's expected that the 2-2 between PS and PSD will remain.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 02, 2022, 12:23:37 PM
Have the overseas votes been fully counted yet, and if so have any seat changes resulted?

Nope, only next week. The electoral commission is still receiving mail ballots from overseas and the deadline is 9 February, next Wednesday. During the same day, they will start counting the ballots. In terms of seats, it's expected that the 2-2 between PS and PSD will remain.

As usual, there were a lot of issues with overseas voting. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/legislativas-emigrantes-nao-receberam-boletins-de-voto_v1381052) Many voters were barred from voting in person, as their names weren't on the electoral rolls, and in many countries, many voters didn't receive their ballots by mail. This was the case of voters in Angola, Venezuela, South Africa


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 02, 2022, 01:53:50 PM
More maps: Parish map with most voted party in the 3,092 parishes of the country.

()
Image link. (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/14362_02_02_22_1_52_10.png)

The PS won 2,190 parishes, the PSD 889, CDU won in 7 parishes, JPP won 2 in Madeira and CDS also won in 2 parishes. 2 parishes, in my count, resulted in a tie.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 02, 2022, 07:40:55 PM
Controversy as leftwing parties are saying they will reject a CHEGA Deputy Speaker in the Parliamentary Leadership:


Quote
Arm wrestling in Parliament. Ventura does not give up a vice president of Chega in Parliament

According to the Parliamentary rules, the 4 most voted parties have the right to nominate deputy speakers in Parliament. As CHEGA, after last Sunday's election, is the 3rd largest party, they have the right to nominate someone. But, the left parties, PS, BE and PCP, are not willing, as of now, to elect a CHEGA deputy speaker. Ventura is already playing the "victim card" and is saying that no one would understand a block to the election of a CHEGA MP. In a statement after his audience with President Marcelo, Ventura added that he hopes that the reports are only "dust controversies", and that his party will not abdicate from the post. The election of the Speaker and the Deputy Speakers is conducted by secret ballot.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2022, 07:28:08 AM
PSD is considering asking for a recount in Bragança:

PSD shuts down the controversy in Bragança and will not ask for a recount. (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1925271/bragana-psd-considera-polmica-dos-resultados-encerrada) The final tally now gives the PS a 12 vote lead over the PSD. On election night, the PS had a 15 vote lead out of almost 66,000 ballots.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 03, 2022, 08:21:56 AM
Controversy as leftwing parties are saying they will reject a CHEGA Ddeputy Speaker in the Parliamentary Leadership:


Quote
Arm wrestling in Parliament. Ventura does not give up a vice president of Chega in Parliament

According to the Parliamentary rules, the 4 most voted parties have the right to nominate deputy speakers in Parliament. As CHEGA, after last Sunday's election, is the 3rd largest party, they have the right to nominate someone. But, the left parties, PS, BE and PCP, are not willing, as of now, to elect a CHEGA deputy speaker. Ventura is already playing the "victim card" and is saying that no one would understand a block to the election of a CHEGA MP. In a statement after his audience with President Marcelo, Ventura added that he hopes that the reports are only "dust controversies", and that his party will not abdicate from the post. The election of the Speaker and the Deputy Speakers is conducted by secret ballot.
what is IL and PSD saying


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2022, 09:14:53 AM
Controversy as leftwing parties are saying they will reject a CHEGA Deputy Speaker in the Parliamentary Leadership:

According to the Parliamentary rules, the 4 most voted parties have the right to nominate deputy speakers in Parliament. As CHEGA, after last Sunday's election, is the 3rd largest party, they have the right to nominate someone. But, the left parties, PS, BE and PCP, are not willing, as of now, to elect a CHEGA deputy speaker. Ventura is already playing the "victim card" and is saying that no one would understand a block to the election of a CHEGA MP. In a statement after his audience with President Marcelo, Ventura added that he hopes that the reports are only "dust controversies", and that his party will not abdicate from the post. The election of the Speaker and the Deputy Speakers is conducted by secret ballot.
what is IL and PSD saying

IL leader, João Cotrim Figueiredo, said that any decision will be taken by the party's caucus when the time comes. The PSD, by the voice of Rui Rio, said that the election is by secret ballot and each MP has to make a decision, but added, that according to the rules, CHEGA has every right to ask for a Deputy Speaker post.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on February 03, 2022, 10:33:58 AM
More maps: Parish map with most voted party in the 3,092 parishes of the country.

()
Image link. (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/14362_02_02_22_1_52_10.png)

The PS won 2,190 parishes, the PSD 889, CDU won in 7 parishes, JPP won 2 in Madeira and CDS also won in 2 parishes. 2 parishes, in my count, resulted in a tie.

So no Chega parishes, then - where were they closest?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2022, 10:39:34 AM
So no Chega parishes, then - where were they closest?

They got their best result in Póvoa de São Miguel, Moura, Beja district. CHEGA got 29.3% in this parish (110 votes), against the 46.9% of the PS (176 votes). This was the parish that also gave their best showing back in 2019. In other small parishes in Portalegre district, they also got results above 20%, but they are few, and in none of them were they close to winning them.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2022, 05:52:32 PM
PSD leadership: Rio bows out and calls a party meeting to call a leadership election.


Quote
Rio announces that it will not run for the leadership of the PSD

Rio's leadership team met, this afternoon, to asses last Sunday's general election results that gave the PSD 29% of the votes, a clear underperformance of what polls were predicting, and that shocked the party. After the meeting, Rio announced he will leave the PSD leadership and schedule a National Council meeting, on 19 February, to call a leadership election. Rio said he wants the leadership issue resolved until early July, saying he's open to discuss earlier dates. He will lead the party during the 2022 budget discussion, that will occur in March, but hasn't decided yet if he will remain in Parliament after leaving the leadership.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on February 03, 2022, 06:51:07 PM
Rest in oeace.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2022, 07:19:15 AM
More parties leadership crisis:

- PAN is also a bit in turmoil. The disastrous results in Sunday's election, 1.5% and just one MP, is creating a lot of tension within the party. So much so, that the former leader of PAN, André Silva, wrote an op-ed in Público newspaper trashing the current PAN leadership (https://observador.pt/2022/02/04/crise-no-pan-andre-silva-critica-postura-erratica-do-partido-transformado-em-afilhado-do-ps-e-diz-se-disponivel-para-regressar/), saying it transformed PAN into the "godson" of the PS. He's also willing to return to the party's leadership;

- CDS is in full crisis. The party is set to elect a new leader in a party congress on 9 and 10 April, with Nuno Melo, currently, being the sole candidate. At the same time, the party is near bankruptcy and may be forced to leave their historical headquarters in downtown Lisbon. (https://observador.pt/2022/02/04/saida-do-cds-da-sede-no-largo-do-caldas-apontada-como-solucao-para-problemas-financeiros-do-partido/)

- BE is also living some tense moments. The colapse of the party in the elections, is creating criticisms towards Catarina Martins and some ask for her resignation or a complete change of strategy. (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/e-preciso-mudar-de-rumo-ex-deputado-do-be-pedro-soares-defende-nova-estrategia-para-o-partido-14548298.html) Catarina Martins, however, has stated she will not resign.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2022, 10:51:52 AM
More maps:

CHEGA, IL and CDU vote share by parish:

CHEGA:


IL:


CDU:


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on February 04, 2022, 04:21:04 PM
Another nice map



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2022, 05:47:57 PM
Very good map! Thanks for the share OldEurope. :)

Interesting that the Lisbon parish map is almost identical to the local election parish map, last September. Only two parishes are different: Parque das Nações and Campo de Ourique. The tactical voting in the PS was clear this time, unlike last September.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: mileslunn on February 04, 2022, 06:31:39 PM
Just eyeballing maps, looks like Chega did best in least densely populated parts of country while IL was strongest in densest parts.  PS vs. PSD seemed to have a weak correlation, not like Anglosphere where high density areas tend to favour parties on left and low density on right.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2022, 08:35:27 PM
Just eyeballing maps, looks like Chega did best in least densely populated parts of country while IL was strongest in densest parts.  PS vs. PSD seemed to have a weak correlation, not like Anglosphere where high density areas tend to favour parties on left and low density on right.

Yes, CHEGA does best in less populated areas in the Alentejo region, and in the rural parts of the North and Center, especially those close to the Spanish border. In urban areas, CHEGA performed best in the suburban ring in the North of Lisbon, mainly in Sintra, almost 10% of the votes, and Loures, 9%. IL voters seems to be urban, young and highly educated. The party also performed very well in the richest parishes in the country: For example, in Lisbon city, Avenidas Novas, a high middle class parish, IL almost achieved 17% of the votes.

PSD does much better in rural, semi-rural areas than urban ones, however, this is the case above the Tagus river, as bellow, in the South, PSD is strongest in urban areas and basically non existent in rural areas, which have very little density, however. PS, on the other hand, does well in rural areas, as it benefits from the bipolarization between PS and PSD, and does quite well in urban areas, and in this election especially, as leftwing voters massively voted tactically in the PS, while rightwing voters were more scattered.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 05, 2022, 12:47:00 PM
More updates on the election fallout:

- The controversy surrounding the CHEGA Deputy Speaker position continues. Ventura nominated Diogo Pacheco de Amorim (https://www.publico.pt/2022/02/03/politica/noticia/ventura-admite-nao-eleger-vice-ar-primeira-espera-bom-senso-1994180), elected from Porto, as the party's pick for Deputy Speaker but he's a controversial figure as he was part of far-right terrorist groups during the 1974-76 years, after the 1974 revolution. His name is likely to fail, but the vote is by secret ballot and only on the day of voting we will know;

- Business leaders and the Banking sector are delighted with the PS majority government. (https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/02/03/empresarios-animam-se-com-novo-governo-livre-da-extrema-esquerda/) Several bussiness leaders and Bank CEOs are happy with the election results saying that the PS is now free from the influence of the leftwing parties. Business leaders advise Costa to launch a "reformist approach" to cut taxes, make no changes in Labour laws and create incentives for innovation and investment;

- Costa's new cabinet is set to be sworn in on the last week of this month, maybe 23 or 24 February. (https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/02/04/costa-conta-apresentar-a-marcelo-nomes-para-novo-governo-a-22-ou-23-de-fevereiro/) But, in order to avoid leaks, Costa will only give the names of his new cabinet to President Marcelo 24 hours before the swering in ceremony. Costa has also announced that his new cabinet will be smaller with some ministers accumulating posts;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 08, 2022, 07:22:29 AM
More maps:

Left vs Right parish map:
()
Image link (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/14362_08_02_22_7_20_24.png)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 08, 2022, 11:04:43 AM
More updates:

- Total meltdown in PAN: 10 members of PAN's leadership resigned (https://www.publico.pt/2022/02/07/politica/noticia/dezena-membros-comissao-politica-nacional-pan-renunciam-cargo-1994572), criticizing Inês Sousa Real's leadership and asking for a snap party congress. Former PAN leader, André Silva, returned and in a TV interview trashed Sousa Real accusing her of damaging the party and that she should resign. Sousa Real is calling these resignations "a sad show", and that her internal opposition is trying to oust her;

- The CHEGA controversy goes on and on. Mainly because the trainwreck CHEGA nominee for Deputy Speaker is giving more and more TV interviews. The last one sparked controversy as Diogo Pacheco de Amorim (https://sicnoticias.pt/eleicoes-legislativas/pacheco-de-amorim-acusado-de-xenofobia-muda-o-argumento-e-defende-que-dignidade-e-a-mesma-para-todos/), CHEGA's nominee, said, on SIC TV, that in Portugal "our origin color is white and our race is caucasian", adding that Portugal had always good relations with other races during the age of the Portuguese Empire;

- CHEGA is also in the middle on another controversy as PM Costa has excluded CHEGA and Ventura from meetings before the swearing in of the new government. In the next few days, Costa has arranged meetings with business leaders (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/politica/novo-governo/costa-inicia-serie-de-audiencias-com-instituicoes-na-quarta-feira-e-recebe-partidos-dia-15/20220228/620170010cf2cc58e7e198a5), universities, health specialists, party leaders and others but excluded CHEGA from the meetings. Ventura is accusing Costa of showing already "worrying tics";

- Overseas ballots are starting to be processed and counted. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/comeca-o-apuramento-dos-votos-dos-emigrantes_n1382841) The process will start this afternoon and will continue tomorrow. Ballots received until tomorrow will be counted;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 06:27:22 AM
- Overseas ballots are starting to be processed and counted. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/comeca-o-apuramento-dos-votos-dos-emigrantes_n1382841) The process will start this afternoon and will continue tomorrow. Ballots received until tomorrow will be counted;

Overseas ballots are now being counted in Lisbon city. According to reports, more than 230,000 ballots were received, but there is already a controversy in the counting. The PSD is protesting that many ballots are being processed and counted without having an ID copy in them. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/politica/psd-adverte-contra-votos-da-emigracao-sem-cartao-de-cidadao_a1383117) The party says this is illegal and doesn't want these ballots counted. The PS is against the PSD protests, saying that it was agreed between parties to count ballots without an ID, but the PSD responded by saying that their own party tribunal warned that it was illegal and they should prevent those ballots to be counted. The PSD warns that in many countries, there could have been fraud and that the ID copy is a safeguard that the ballot has not been violated. The Electoral Commission has yet to make a decision.

4 seats are at play with these overseas ballots: 2 from Europe, and another 2 for the Rest of the World.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 01:58:29 PM
First results of the overseas ballots - Berlin, Germany

35.5% PS
16.7% PSD
11.4% BE
  7.0% Livre
  6.8% PAN
  5.5% IL
  4.6% CDU
  4.4% CHEGA
  2.1% Volt Portugal
  6.0% Others/Invalid

29.7% Turnout (1,553 ballots)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 02:14:19 PM
Barcelona, Spain. 16.3% Turnout (2,036 ballots)

33.9% PS
25.6% PSD
  6.9% BE
  6.6% CHEGA
  6.1% IL
  4.6% PAN
  3.4% CDU
  2.5% Livre
  2.1% CDS
  1.8% PCTP/MRPP
  6.5% Others/Invalid

Results from here: https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/resultados/estrangeiro


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 02:26:07 PM
Madrid, Spain: 19.0% Turnout (3,421 ballots)

34.5% PSD
32.9% PS
  6.2% IL
  5.2% CHEGA
  4.4% CDS
  4.0% BE
  3.2% PAN
  2.4% CDU
  1.3% PCTP/MRPP
  1.0% Livre
  4.9% Others/Invalid


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 02:40:18 PM
So far, 21 counting tables have been nullified because staff mixed processed ballots with ballots that were being put on hold because of no ID copy. (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/geral/legislativas-votos-de-emigrantes-anulados-em-mais-de-20-mesas/20220209/620414ab0cf2c7ea0f18244a) This was because of the PSD complaint, in which the Electoral Commission was advising counting tables to separate ballots. The Commission also said that a "friends meeting" to see how ballots should be counted, isn't the right way to solve things and that parties should have changed the laws. The PS is furious and is threatening to go to the Courts.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 02:52:27 PM
Lyon, France: 17.5% Turnout (9,975 ballots)

47.5% PS
24.8% PSD
  8.1% CHEGA
  3.4% PAN
  2.8% BE
  1.7% CDU
  1.4% CDS
  1.2% PCTP/MRPP
  1.0% MPT
  1.0% IL
  7.1% Others/Invalid


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 03:54:29 PM
Counting so far:

Europe (2 seats), 36% counted:

42.6% PS
26.0% PSD
  7.9% CHEGA
  4.2% BE
  4.0% PAN
  2.6% IL
  2.5% CDU
  1.8% CDS
  1.4% Livre
  1.1% PCTP/MRPP
  5.9% Others/Invalid

Outside Europe (2 seats), 17% counted:

38.0% PSD
25.0% PS
10.0% CHEGA
  6.5% PAN
  4.7% IL
  2.7% CDS
  2.2% BE
  1.2% NC
  1.2% ADN
  1.1% Alliance
  1.0% MPT
  1.0% CDU
  5.4% Others/Invalid

- PS won Spain by a 35-29% margin over the PSD;
- PS is leading in Germany with a 42-26% lead over PSD;
- In France, PS is leading 47-24% over the PSD;
- PSD won Angola by a 48-29% margin over the PS;
- In Brazil, PSD is also leading by a 37-24% margin over the PS. CHEGA at 10%;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 09, 2022, 04:01:24 PM
Given how D'Hondt works, PS would need twice the vote of PSD in the Europe constituency in order to win both seats, right?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 04:08:05 PM
Given how D'Hondt works, PS would need twice the vote of PSD in the Europe constituency in order to win both seats, right?

Yes, it seems unlikely for the PS winning the 2nd Europe seat, however the PS could still make gains in places like Paris, which has a lot of ballots. However, we don't know where the nullified ballots are coming from, and this could delay the announcement of the results as the PS is considering going to the Courts in order to have these nullified ballots counted.

The most likely outcome, so far and looking at the results, is a 2-2 split between PS and PSD, like it was two years ago in 2019.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 05:42:19 PM
Current tally:

Europe (2 seats), 95.5% counted: (186,838 ballots so far)

40.7% PS
25.4% PSD
10.1% CHEGA
  3.8% BE
  3.7% CDU
  2.5% CDU
  2.4% IL
  1.4% Livre
  1.3% CDS
  1.2% PCTP/MRPP
  7.5% Others/Invalid

Outside Europe (2 seats), 58.3% counted (38,071 ballots so far)

38.3% PSD
29.1% PS
10.0% CHEGA
  4.5% PAN
  3.3% IL
  2.3% BE
  2.2% CDS
  1.4% CDU
  1.0% NC
  1.0% Livre
  6.9% Others/Invalid


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on February 09, 2022, 05:58:16 PM
Disappointing how well Chega is doing with the diaspora. The Facebook effect, I suppose.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 06:05:45 PM
Disappointing how well Chega is doing with the diaspora. The Facebook effect, I suppose.

I'm not surprised, to be honest. What surprised me is that, so far, CHEGA is doing much better in Europe than in Outside of Europe. The latter is much more aligned with the rightwing, but CHEGA didn't make big inroads. In the US, the PSD won 45-30% against the PS, with CHEGA a distant 3rd at 11%. And in Brazil, only 10% of the votes, so far. As in Europe, in Luxembourg, CHEGA almost got 13% of the votes, while in Switzerland they got more than 17% of the votes.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 06:49:17 PM
Europe Constituency, 2 seats, is now fully counted: (193,349 ballots)

Vote share %:

40.4% PS, 1 seat (nc)
25.4% PSD, 1 (nc)
  9.9% CHEGA
  4.0% BE
  3.8% PAN
  2.6% IL
  2.6% CDU
  1.6% Livre
  1.3% CDS
  1.2% PCTP/MRPP
  7.2% Others/Invalid

20.9% Turnout

PS won in all consulates, with the expection of Madrid which was won by the PSD.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 07:17:58 PM
Outside of Europe Constituency, 2 seats, also fully counted: (64,442 ballots)

Vote share %:

37.5% PSD, 1 seat (nc)
29.8% PS, 1 (nc)
  9.6% CHEGA
  4.5% PAN
  3.6% IL
  2.6% BE
  2.1% CDS
  1.4% CDU
  1.0% ADN
  1.0% Livre
  1.0% NC
  5.9% Others/Invalid

10.8% Turnout

The PSD won Brazil, Angola, Canada, USA and the rest of American countries. The PS won in China, and in the rest of countries of Asia and Africa.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2022, 08:06:22 PM
Final results of the 2022 general elections:

Vote share %: (compared with 2019)

41.5% PS (+5.2), 119 seats (+11)
29.2% PSD (+1.4), 78 (-1)
  7.3% CHEGA (+6.0), 12 (+11)
  4.9% IL (+3.6), 8 (+7)
  4.4% BE (-5.1), 5 (-14)
  4.3% CDU (-2.0), 6 (-6)
  1.6% PAN (-1.7), 1 (-3)
  1.6% CDS (-2.6), 0 (-5)
  1.3% Livre (+0.2), 1 (nc)
  0.4% RIR (-0.3)
  0.2% PCTP/MRPP (-0.5)
  0.2% ADN (nc)
  0.2% JPP (nc)
  0.2% MPT (-0.1)
  0.1% Volt Portugal (new)
  0.1% MAS (nc)
  0.1% E (-0.2)
  0.1% NC (-0.1)
  0.1% PTP (-0.1)
  0.1% Alliance (-0.7)
  0.0% PPM (-0.2)
  2.1% Blank/Invalid ballots (-2.7)

52.2% Turnout (+3.6)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: mileslunn on February 10, 2022, 01:45:43 AM
Anyone have Canada or United States.  Canada at least has quite a large Portuguese diaspora so would be interested in how they voted.  They tend to lean left here so guessing PS overperformed, PSD under and CHEGA very weak (although with what is happening right now, maybe go some of the anti-vaxxers and those supporting our trucker convoy).


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2022, 06:04:32 AM
Anyone have Canada or United States.  Canada at least has quite a large Portuguese diaspora so would be interested in how they voted.  They tend to lean left here so guessing PS overperformed, PSD under and CHEGA very weak (although with what is happening right now, maybe go some of the anti-vaxxers and those supporting our trucker convoy).

Canada: (9,927 ballots)

39.5% PSD
37.9% PS
  9.3% CHEGA
  2.2% BE
  1.7% PAN
  1.5% CDS
  1.5% CDU
  1.2% IL
  5.2% Others/Invalid

17.8% Turnout

The PSD won in Toronto by a 40-36% margin over the PS, while in the rest of Canada, the PS got 42% to the PSD 37%.

USA: (8,601 ballots)

45.0% PSD
30.3% PS
10.9% CHEGA
  2.2% CDS
  2.1% BE
  2.0% IL
  2.0% PAN
  1.1% CDU
  4.4% Others/Invalid

13.8% Turnout

The PSD dominated in the whole US, winning in Newark with 47% of the votes, against the 29% for the PS and the 14% for CHEGA. In the rest of the US, PSD achieved 44% of the votes, the PS 31% and CHEGA 9%. Other parties were bellow 3%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: CumbrianLefty on February 10, 2022, 09:54:58 AM
How does the overseas vote compare overall to last time?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2022, 10:15:09 AM
How does the overseas vote compare overall to last time?

It's difficult to compare, in terms of share of course, because last time there were 22% of invalid ballots, so PS and PSD got shares well bellow 30%. In terms of votes however, basically all parties grew exponentially compared with 2019. Of the main parties, only CDS lost votes. PS got more 55,000 votes, PSD more 36,000 votes, CHEGA more 24,000 votes, while the other parties had smaller increases: BE more 1,809 ballots; PAN more 2,679; CDU more 2,611; IL more 5,138; and Livre more 2,123 votes. Like I said above, only CDS drooped, losing 1,359 votes compared with 2019.

Overall, this time there were 414,996 ballots 257,791 ballots from overseas, but 157,205 were thrown out because of no ID copy identification, or because counting officers mixed regular ballots with others that lack ID identification (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/foram-invalidados-157-mil-votos-na-emigracao-ps-nao-vai-para-o-tc-mas-quer-mudar-a-lei-eleitoral/), thus invalidating all of the ballots. The PS considered going to the Courts to have these ballots counted, but they have now dropped that, as it would delay the opening of the new Parliament plus it wouldn't change the 2-2 seat split between PS and PSD. However, the party says it will change the electoral law.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: mileslunn on February 10, 2022, 10:21:01 AM
Anyone have Canada or United States.  Canada at least has quite a large Portuguese diaspora so would be interested in how they voted.  They tend to lean left here so guessing PS overperformed, PSD under and CHEGA very weak (although with what is happening right now, maybe go some of the anti-vaxxers and those supporting our trucker convoy).

Canada: (9,927 ballots)

39.5% PSD
37.9% PS
  9.3% CHEGA
  2.2% BE
  1.7% PAN
  1.5% CDS
  1.5% CDU
  1.2% IL
  5.2% Others/Invalid

17.8% Turnout

The PSD won in Toronto by a 40-36% margin over the PS, while in the rest of Canada, the PS got 42% to the PSD 37%.

USA: (8,601 ballots)

45.0% PSD
30.3% PS
10.9% CHEGA
  2.2% CDS
  2.1% BE
  2.0% IL
  2.0% PAN
  1.1% CDU
  4.4% Others/Invalid

13.8% Turnout

The PSD dominated in the whole US, winning in Newark with 47% of the votes, against the 29% for the PS and the 14% for CHEGA. In the rest of the US, PSD achieved 44% of the votes, the PS 31% and CHEGA 9%. Other parties were bellow 3%.

Interesting as in Canada, riding with largest Portuguese community is Davenport and it is an NDP/Liberal so very left wing.  Mind you this is just largest, lots live in other parts.  In US, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, California, and Hawaii I believe have largest Portuguese populations and all pretty solidly Democrat, but possible Portuguese went GOP as lots of other groups there.  I suspect most CHEGA voters in US voted for Trump if US citizens.  On other hand I suspect amongst PSD voters, probably fairly equally split between Biden and Trump.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2022, 10:50:57 AM
Interesting as in Canada, riding with largest Portuguese community is Davenport and it is an NDP/Liberal so very left wing.  Mind you this is just largest, lots live in other parts.  In US, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, California, and Hawaii I believe have largest Portuguese populations and all pretty solidly Democrat, but possible Portuguese went GOP as lots of other groups there.  I suspect most CHEGA voters in US voted for Trump if US citizens.  On other hand I suspect amongst PSD voters, probably fairly equally split between Biden and Trump.

The ballots from the Outside of Europe communities have always been very rightwing. The US and specially Brazil gives lots of votes to the PSD, even though some communities in the US live in heavily Democratic areas. Yes, the CHEGA voters may be Republican voters, and the PSD votes may divide their votes between the Dems and the GOP, but the Dems may have a bigger advantage still.

Also, to show how crazy the ballot counting was, Renascença Radio reports that PM Costa made, during the early hours of the morning, an urgent call to PSD leader Rui Rio, to ask him to drop the complaint regarding the invalid ballots as both parties would lose State funding if those ballots weren't counted. (https://rr.sapo.pt/noticia/politica/2022/02/10/votos-da-europa-costa-e-rio-tentaram-em-vao-travar-protesto-do-psd/271905/) Rio forced the PSD delegates to drop the complaint, but when the PSD delegates tried to retract the complaint it was too late, as counting officers had already signed the final vote tally.

What a mess.. ::)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2022, 11:11:36 AM
How does the overseas vote compare overall to last time?

It's difficult to compare, in terms of share of course, because last time there were 22% of invalid ballots, so PS and PSD got shares well bellow 30%. In terms of votes however, basically all parties grew exponentially compared with 2019. Of the main parties, only CDS lost votes. PS got more 55,000 votes, PSD more 36,000 votes, CHEGA more 24,000 votes, while the other parties had smaller increases: BE more 1,809 ballots; PAN more 2,679; CDU more 2,611; IL more 5,138; and Livre more 2,123 votes. Like I said above, only CDS drooped, losing 1,359 votes compared with 2019.

Overall, this time there were 414,996 ballots from overseas, but 157,205 were thrown out because of no ID copy identification, or because counting officers mixed regular ballots with others that lack ID identification (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/foram-invalidados-157-mil-votos-na-emigracao-ps-nao-vai-para-o-tc-mas-quer-mudar-a-lei-eleitoral/), thus invalidating all of the ballots. The PS considered going to the Courts to have these ballots counted, but they have now dropped that, as it would delay the opening of the new Parliament plus it wouldn't change the 2-2 seat split between PS and PSD. However, the party says it will change the electoral law.

Ok, now I'm confused. I wrote in the post above that there were 400,000 ballots from overseas, like Expresso newspaper wrote. But Público newspaper, says that with the 157,000 ballots removed, the PSD surpasses the PS in the overseas counting by 274 votes. (https://www.publico.pt/2022/02/10/politica/noticia/ps-nao-vai-recorrer-anulacao-80-votos-emigrantes-europa-1995001?ref=hp&cx=stories_cover__important_b--507490)

Not sure which report is right, so we'll have to wait for the official publication of the results to know for sure. Sorry for any misunderstanding, but the situation is confusing. :)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2022, 12:04:03 PM
Historic scene in Parliament today: The plaque of CDS's offices was removed from the building.


Quote
The #CDS-PP was in the Assembly of the Republic for 47 years, but today it took a few seconds for the plaque indicating the centrist parliamentary group to be removed from the door of the room, on the Noble Floor, which will now be Chega's.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 11, 2022, 06:55:45 AM
Volt Portugal appealed to the Constitutional Court in order for the 157,000 voided votes to be counted.  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/volt-portugal-vai-recorrer-da-anulacao-de-votos-no-circulo-da-europa_n1383779)

The Court will now notify all parts, and then make a ruling in 48 hours. So, only next week we will know how this whole mess will end.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 11, 2022, 10:11:12 AM
Volt Portugal appealed to the Constitutional Court in order for the 157,000 voided votes to be counted.  (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/volt-portugal-vai-recorrer-da-anulacao-de-votos-no-circulo-da-europa_n1383779)

The Court will now notify all parts, and then make a ruling in 48 hours. So, only next week we will know how this whole mess will end.

PAN and Livre also filed a lawsuit to the Constitutional Court to have the ballots counted. (https://observador.pt/2022/02/11/pan-recorre-junto-do-tribunal-constitucional-de-anulacao-dos-votos-da-europa/)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 11, 2022, 12:51:09 PM
How does the overseas vote compare overall to last time?

It's difficult to compare, in terms of share of course, because last time there were 22% of invalid ballots, so PS and PSD got shares well bellow 30%. In terms of votes however, basically all parties grew exponentially compared with 2019. Of the main parties, only CDS lost votes. PS got more 55,000 votes, PSD more 36,000 votes, CHEGA more 24,000 votes, while the other parties had smaller increases: BE more 1,809 ballots; PAN more 2,679; CDU more 2,611; IL more 5,138; and Livre more 2,123 votes. Like I said above, only CDS drooped, losing 1,359 votes compared with 2019.

Overall, this time there were 414,996 ballots 257,791 ballots from overseas, but 157,205 were thrown out because of no ID copy identification, or because counting officers mixed regular ballots with others that lack ID identification (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/foram-invalidados-157-mil-votos-na-emigracao-ps-nao-vai-para-o-tc-mas-quer-mudar-a-lei-eleitoral/), thus invalidating all of the ballots. The PS considered going to the Courts to have these ballots counted, but they have now dropped that, as it would delay the opening of the new Parliament plus it wouldn't change the 2-2 seat split between PS and PSD. However, the party says it will change the electoral law.

Ok, now I'm confused. I wrote in the post above that there were 400,000 ballots from overseas, like Expresso newspaper wrote. But Público newspaper, says that with the 157,000 ballots removed, the PSD surpasses the PS in the overseas counting by 274 votes. (https://www.publico.pt/2022/02/10/politica/noticia/ps-nao-vai-recorrer-anulacao-80-votos-emigrantes-europa-1995001?ref=hp&cx=stories_cover__important_b--507490)

Not sure which report is right, so we'll have to wait for the official publication of the results to know for sure. Sorry for any misunderstanding, but the situation is confusing. :)

Right, I figured out now. There are no 400,000 ballots from overseas, the Expresso report was wrong. The Público one is right. The 157,000 disputed ballots are from the 196,000 ballots of the Europe constituency, around 80% of them (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/o-que-aconteceu-com-o-voto-dos-emigrantes-portugueses). With those ballots removed, the PS loses 64,000 votes and the PSD loses 40,000 votes. Without these ballots, in Europe the PS gets 14,345 votes (39.6%) and the PSD 9,761 (27.1%). CHEGA would have 3,985 votes (11%).

In the Outside of Europe constituency, that are also some ballots invalidated but very few, just 1,907, and they have no impact at all. Overall, adding the Europe and Outside Europe constituencies, the PSD indeed surpasses the PS by 274 votes, 33,703 votes to the 33,429 of the PS.

But, now we'll have to wait for the Court's ruling. Again, sorry for any misunderstanding.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 11, 2022, 06:04:46 PM
Another update in the overseas ballot debacle: PSD will file a lawsuit against counting officials who mixed invalid ballots with valid ballots.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/psd-vai-apresentar-queixa-ao-ministerio-publico-sobre-voto-dos-emigrantes/)

In a press conference, PSD leader Rui Rio announced that the PSD will file, next Monday, a lawsuit against counting officials who mixed invalid ballots with valid ballots, during the counting, when they were advised to separate the ballots. Rio accused several counting officers, aligned with the PS, of deliberately violating the law and mixing the ballots. Rio called the situation "intolerable" and that it's shameful that of almost 200,000 ballots, only 38,000 were valid.

This almost sounds like an US election dispute...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 12, 2022, 08:01:10 AM
CDS to elect a new leader during the weekend of 2 and 3 April:


Quote
National Council of the CDS-PP approves realization of a Congress on April 2nd and 3rd

CDS National Council met last night and approved the date to elect a new leader, after the resignation of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos on election night. The party will elect a new leader on the weekend of 2 and 3 April, while the venue is still to be decided. After the meeting, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos said that it was "internal friendly fire" that killed his leadership and that the party needs to start appreciate it self or the electorate will never appreciate CDS. MEP Nuno Melo is expected to announce his candidacy for the leadership, and could be the sole candidate for the leadership. Any new leader has a monumental task ahead, as in almost 50 years of Portuguese Democracy, no party that was wiped out from Parliament ever returned again.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 15, 2022, 01:46:12 PM
Constitutional Court demands the repetition of the election in the Europe constituency:  (https://www.publico.pt/2022/02/15/politica/noticia/tribunal-constitucional-decide-preciso-repetir-eleicoes-141-mesas-europa-nova-ar-governo-so-daqui-mes-1995617)

The Court accepted the complaints of several parties, but didn't accepted the current tally. The Court ruled that the election must be repeated in the Europe constituency, but only for the ballots that were ruled out, not the 38,000 valid ones. The Electoral Commission will be notified, and will have to start sending ballots overseas in the next few weeks. The process could last almost a month.

This will of course delay the swearing in of a new Parliament and of Costa's cabinet, which could only happen now by mid March.

Of course, this whole debacle has created a lot of fury and disappointment in overseas comunities, and the turnout could be quite low. We'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 16, 2022, 11:24:42 AM
Constitutional Court demands the repetition of the election in the Europe constituency:  (https://www.publico.pt/2022/02/15/politica/noticia/tribunal-constitucional-decide-preciso-repetir-eleicoes-141-mesas-europa-nova-ar-governo-so-daqui-mes-1995617)

The Court accepted the complaints of several parties, but didn't accepted the current tally. The Court ruled that the election must be repeated in the Europe constituency, but only for the ballots that were ruled out, not the 38,000 valid ones. The Electoral Commission will be notified, and will have to start sending ballots overseas in the next few weeks. The process could last almost a month.

This will of course delay the swearing in of a new Parliament and of Costa's cabinet, which could only happen now by mid March.

Of course, this whole debacle has created a lot of fury and disappointment in overseas comunities, and the turnout could be quite low. We'll see.

Update on the ballots debacle:

There are several doubts of how the election repetition will be held. The law says that any election re run has to ocurr in the 2nd Sunday after the Court's ruling. But, there's a problem. Overseas voting is overwhelmingly done by mail, 95%+, and the law hints that only in person voting could be allowed. (https://observador.pt/2022/02/15/as-muitas-duvidas-que-ficam-sobre-a-proxima-votacao-dos-emigrantes/) Plus, parties like PAN are considering asking for an appeal if only in person voting is allowed in the rerun of the election. (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/legislativas-pan-admite-recurso-caso-repeticao-da-eleicao-seja-apenas-presencial)

The Electoral Commission (CNE) has announced they will give a press conference at 8pm (https://expresso.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/voto-dos-emigrantes-cne-presta-esclarecimentos-em-conferencia-de-imprensa-as-20h/), and it's expected that the Commission explains how the voting will be conducted.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 16, 2022, 11:50:07 AM
Major Update: Público newspaper says that the election rerun will only happen in late March:  (https://www.publico.pt/2022/02/16/politica/noticia/eleicoes-serao-repetidas-26-27-marco-circulo-europa-1995752)

Quote
The National Elections Commission scheduled for this Wednesday, at 8 pm, a press conference in which clarifications will be provided on the repetition of the legislative in the constituency of Europe. From what the PÚBLICO found out, in order to ensure compliance with all legal requirements, the election will only be repeated at the end of March, on the weekend of the 26th and 27th (one month later than expected). This date pushes the inauguration of the Government and the Assembly of the Republic to mid-April(...)

I assume this is because of postal votes, but we'll have to wait for the CNE press conference.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 16, 2022, 03:47:24 PM
Final dates for the overseas election rerun:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/votacao-dos-emigrantes-vai-repetir-se-a-12-e-13-marco/)

The CNE just announced, in a press conference, the final dates of the Europe constituency election rerun. The first dates being reported, by the press, were 26 and 27 March for the in person voting, but the CNE retracted those dates and now points to in person voting between 12 and 13 March. Mail ballots will be received until 23 March. The timetable is the following:

- Late February: Postal ballots are sent to voters;
- 12 and 13 March: In person voting;
- 23 March: Last day to receive postal ballots;
- 23 March: Counting process begins;
- 25 March: Announcement of the results;
- Between 25 and 27 March: Publication of the final and official results;
- Late March/Early April: Swearing in of the new Parliament and of the new Government;

Despite having 38,000 valid ballots, these are also thrown out and the election will be completely repeated, from scratch, in the Europe constituency.

The media is labeling this whole situation as a major embarrassment for the political class in Portugal, and the international media is also picking it up. (https://apnews.com/article/business-europe-elections-voting-portugal-4310315b999c2b11437912c0969f7142)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Flyersfan232 on February 16, 2022, 08:49:44 PM
CDS to elect a new leader during the weekend of 2 and 3 April:


Quote
National Council of the CDS-PP approves realization of a Congress on April 2nd and 3rd

CDS National Council met last night and approved the date to elect a new leader, after the resignation of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos on election night. The party will elect a new leader on the weekend of 2 and 3 April, while the venue is still to be decided. After the meeting, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos said that it was "internal friendly fire" that killed his leadership and that the party needs to start appreciate it self or the electorate will never appreciate CDS. MEP Nuno Melo is expected to announce his candidacy for the leadership, and could be the sole candidate for the leadership. Any new leader has a monumental task ahead, as in almost 50 years of Portuguese Democracy, no party that was wiped out from Parliament ever returned again.
what was the closet to returning?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 17, 2022, 06:17:44 AM

None, actually. UDP won their last MP in 1980 and never again elected again, however they merged with other parties to create the Left Bloc (BE); PRD lost all MPs in 1991 and soon afterwards became a "zombie" party until the far-right picked it up and transform it into PNR, now Ergue-te (E); PSN, a pensioners party in the 90's, also elected in 1991 but then had no breakthrough and after 1995, it was dissolved. So, it's quite difficult for a party to return to Parliament after leaving it, but, who knows, maybe CDS will break this trend and return, we'll see.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: crals on February 17, 2022, 07:35:30 AM
CDS has some advantages, like having a long history, a significant local presence in some regions including 6 mayors and probably a well-known new leader who is an elected MEP, but 4 years without media coverage will be devastating.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 17, 2022, 02:16:48 PM
Media coverage the CDS will always have because they have many pundits on TV and newspapers, plus, like you said, they're still present in regional and local governments, but if that translates into votes is a totally other thing. It seems that Nuno Melo will present his candidacy on Saturday and he may be the sole candidate. The party has a lot of challenges, and one of them is already next year in the Madeira regional elections on September/October 2023. There's currently tensions within CDS about their relationship with the PSD, as some CDS-Madeira members point that the party is being merged with the PSD. The discussion of a possible electoral alliance, or not, between both parties could be tense within the party.

Also, some details of the 30 January exit polls were released today. Pitagórica exit poll (for TVI/CNN Portugal)



In summary:

-PS wins the male and female vote, but by different margins: +8 in men, +18 in women. CHEGA has 10% of the male vote, while just 5% of the female vote. Others parties with small differences;

- Younger voters, bellow 25 years old, voted PSD: 29% PSD to the 27% of the PS. IL reached 12%, while CHEGA got 7%, behind BE who reached 8%.

- Older voters voted massively in the PS: 51% PS to the 28% of PSD. Other parties bellow 6%, with CHEGA and CDU tied in 3rd place with 6%;

- Voters with college degree sided with the PSD, while non college degree voters sided, by a massive margin, with the PS;

The full data is here: https://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/bases-sociais-do-voto-nas-legislativas-de-2022/


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 18, 2022, 02:07:26 PM
Update:

Well, with the Europe overseas vote rerun, the political situation is on hold for a month and a half, as no one was expecting this outcome:

- The government was caught by surprise with the Court's ruling and many government staff have literally nothing to do (https://expresso.pt/politica/semanario-governo-a-olhar-para-o-boneco-deputados-com-vida-adiada/). Because the government hasn't been sworn in, it's just a caretaker government with just some powers, no official jobs have been given and many offices aren't doing a thing. PM Costa acknowledged, this morning, that the current situation forced him to postpone the organization of the new cabinet and that he will only make invitations, for ministerial positions, in late March;

- The PSD will hold tomorrow their National Council meeting to analyse the general elections results. Yesterday, some local party leaders gathered, in Leiria city, to try to have a common strategy for a leadership ballot date (https://observador.pt/especiais/maquina-aos-solavancos-deixa-futuro-do-psd-em-suspenso/), but nothing was agreed. Rio has said he wants to leave the party's leadership by July. No one has come forward as a candidate yet, but Luis Montenegro seems to be "rallying troops" in secret, while the mayor of Aveiro city, Ribau Esteves, is seriously considering a run for the leadership, however, he's seen as a loose cannon.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 19, 2022, 06:10:29 PM
PSD and CDS leadership updates:

MEP Nuno Melo presented his candidacy for the CDS leadership:


Quote
CDS-PP: Nuno Melo ready to overcome “a path full of obstacles”, without receiving “a cent from the CDS

MEP Nuno Melo presented, this Saturday afternoon, his candidacy for the CDS leadership. In his speech, Melo said he will not "throw the towel on the floor" in the mission to elect, once again, CDS MPs, adding that Portugal needs CDS. He criticized and drew the differences between CDS and IL/CHEGA, labeling IL as defenders of "savage capitalism" and that CHEGA is to the right of the regime, thus saying that CDS needs to fill the void of humanism that IL and CHEGA don't represent. He added that the party is in deep financial troubles and that he, if elected, vows to not receive a salary as party leader. He also said he counts on all CDS members and hopes that many will return to the party. Shortly after, Miguel Mattos Chaves, a CDS member who ran for the leadership in 2016, announced he's also running, but he has no chance as in 2016, Mattos Chaves only got 1% of support.

The PSD National Council meeting ends with Rio being advised to propose a leadership ballot date in 20 days:


Quote
PSD National Council approves marking an internal calendar within a maximum period of 20 days

The PSD National Council meeting was a calm and rather cold meeting. Held in Barcelos city, Braga, the PSD councillors heard Rio explain the reasons of the defeat last 30 January. Rio blamed that tactical voting on the left, the "fear campaign" orchestrated by the PS and the party's difficulty in winning the support of elderly voters. He also added that the growing number of pensioners and people living with Government support, makes these voters not interested in a change of government. However, many PSD members didn't liked Rio's explanations and asked for changes in the party's tone and strategy. In the end, the party's councillors approved a motion to advise the party's leadership to propose a leadership ballot date and call another National Council meeting to approve that date. Rio said he wants to leave during the early summer, and wants to do things calmly. Rio and his leadership team will now decide if they propose, or not, a leadership ballot date in the next 20 days.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 22, 2022, 06:44:57 AM
Turmoil in CHEGA continues: Party loses two more councillors as Ventura accuses them of "shaming" the party.


Quote
CHEGA removes political confidence from two councilors. One of them had already left the party

The internal tensions in CHEGA continue. Yesterday, Ventura removed his trust in 2 CHEGA councillors from Seixal and Sesimbra cities after these councillors negotiated local budgets with the incumbent CDU governments. Ventura accused these councillors of violating party rules by accepting pacts with "parties that have destroyed Portugal" and that they shamed the party. Since last September's local election, CHEGA has already lost 3 councillors and has now a total of 16, compared with the 19 they elected. There has been a lot of controversy surrounding the votes of several CHEGA councillors, and local party Assembly members, as many have been making deals with PS and CDU in order to pass local budgets.

At the same time, in the last weeks after the party's big gains in the general elections, there have been other internal disputes: just days after the general election, Ventura saw his party general secretary, Tiago Sousa Dias, resign (https://expresso.pt/politica/secretario-geral-do-chega-anuncia-demissao/) because of "deep disagreements" between him and Ventura; and just a week ago, Ventura punished several CHEGA members in Braga district after many criticized (https://ominho.pt/vice-presidente-da-distrital-de-braga-do-chega-e-suspensa-90-dias-e-desfilia-se-do-partido/) the election of their own MP for Braga district. The deputy leader of the party in that district even announced she was leaving the party. 


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 22, 2022, 12:46:17 PM
Overseas election rerun update:

Ballots have started to be sent to voters across Europe. Voters have to postmarked the ballots by 13 March (https://www.publico.pt/2022/02/22/politica/noticia/so-400-emigrantes-votam-presencialmente-europa-boletins-voto-postal-ja-comecaram-enviados-1996363), and only ballots the reach Portugal until 23 March will be accepted. In terms of in person voting, just 400 voters can cast a ballot in person.

However, there are concerns about turnout as many overseas voters are furious and frustrated by the counting debacle. The Interior Ministry is also urging voters to also send an ID card copy, otherwise the ballot will be rejected.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 23, 2022, 06:45:09 AM
PCP under fire for being the only party defending Russia and Putin:


Quote
With the communist parties losing out in the West, there is a temptation to look to the cradle of this political project as a way of rebuilding it. But in Russia today Putin will not be the heir of this ideology, however much he is seen as one of the main opponents of US hegemony. This is the portrait made by two historians and a political scientist

PCP is being criticized for its position regarding the current Russia-Ukraine tension. All parties from left to right have condemned Russia and Putin for their actions, with the exception of PCP. The Communists sent a press release saying they are worried with the situation in the East, but they blame Ukraine for never following the Minsk agreement guidelines and for blocking any political solution in the Donbass region. They also accuse the US, NATO and the EU of a "dangerous strategy of tension and warmongering propaganda" against the Russian Federation.

This reaction, which was expected by the PCP, nonetheless is creating criticisms by the media and pundits that accuse the Communists of being "orphan" and that they continue stuck in their view that Putin is the "heir" of the USSR.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on February 23, 2022, 08:39:34 AM
PCP is being criticized for its position regarding the current Russia-Ukraine tension. All parties from left to right have condemned Russia and Putin for their actions, with the exception of PCP.

I am a little surprised that CHEGA (incidentally lol, their constant internal sh**tshows and bleedings of members is hilarious) did not take a position closer to the PCP's on the crisis in Ukraine, in all honesty.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 23, 2022, 10:20:38 AM
PCP is being criticized for its position regarding the current Russia-Ukraine tension. All parties from left to right have condemned Russia and Putin for their actions, with the exception of PCP.

I am a little surprised that CHEGA (incidentally lol, their constant internal sh**tshows and bleedings of members is hilarious) did not take a position closer to the PCP's on the crisis in Ukraine, in all honesty.

Well, in fact Ventura's close ties with Le Pen and Salvini would point to some kind of "soft" message regarding the current crisis in Ukraine, but CHEGA's statement said that Russia should resolve the issue via diplomacy, but that there are moments in history in which we need to defend our values not by the diplomatic way. Regarding their "internal problems", I'm of those who don't know if by December 2022, CHEGA still has its caucus intact. We'll see.

Also, and again regarding CHEGA, Ventura has been permanently banned from Twitter after being suspended 3 times (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/andre-ventura-expulso-permanentemente-do-twitter). The reason for his last suspension from the social media page, that led to his ban, is unclear but it seems it's because of a tweet regarding Islamic immigration, where he warned that only his party understands the dangers of it. Ventura is considering suing Twitter.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 25, 2022, 11:05:17 AM
Overseas election rerun update:

Party leaders are holding campaign events in Portuguese communities across Europe:  (https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/partidos-na-corrida-por-mais-2-deputados-na-repeticao-das-legislativas-na-europa?ref=HP_BlocoTematico6)

- PSD leader Rui Rio is campaigning in the UK and France during the weekend. Rio will spend this Friday in London and end the weekend in Paris, holding meetings with Portuguese communities associations and contacts with PSD members in these areas;

- André Ventura, CHEGA leader, wants to "steal" the PSD MP from the Europe constituency and will do a campaign blitz by going to several European countries from Belgium and Spain to Switzerland, where CHEGA achieved a very strong result in the annulled election;

- Other parties will also do campaign events: CDS will have an event in Brussels to present their candidate, and CDU will have campaign events done by PCP members in these areas. BE is going to focus on social media while the PS will also have events, but no details were given.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 26, 2022, 07:46:46 AM
Also, and again regarding CHEGA, Ventura has been permanently banned from Twitter after being suspended 3 times (https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artigos/andre-ventura-expulso-permanentemente-do-twitter). The reason for his last suspension from the social media page, that led to his ban, is unclear but it seems it's because of a tweet regarding Islamic immigration, where he warned that only his party understands the dangers of it. Ventura is considering suing Twitter.

For some unknown reason, Twitter has retracted its earlier decision and has reopened Ventura's account on the social media platform. (https://www.cmjornal.pt/tv-media/detalhe/twitter-volta-atras-e-repoe-conta-de-andre-ventura)

Regarding the ongoing reactions to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, PCP is continuing to be heavily criticized for not condemning Russia and blaming NATO and the US, and BE is also being a bit criticized for its ambiguity in also condemning Russia, as BE defends an immediate cease fire and the end of NATO's expansion.  (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1940527/be-pede-cessar-fogo-imediato-e-critica-reforco-da-presenca-da-nato)

In CHEGA, Ventura is strongly condemning Russia, saying he's by the side of the Portuguese government (https://observador.pt/2022/02/25/andre-ventura-diz-que-o-chega-esta-ao-lado-do-governo-contra-a-russia/) in the economic and military sanctions against Russia. However, there are some dissident voices within CHEGA, as one of Ventura's deputies in the leadership went to social media saying the Ukrainian government made a lot of mistakes (https://observador.pt/2022/02/25/andre-ventura-diz-que-o-chega-esta-ao-lado-do-governo-contra-a-russia/) and suggesting that they provoked Russia. However, the post has already been deleted.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on February 26, 2022, 08:53:04 PM
Trainwreck debate between Sérgio Sousa Pinto (PS) and António Filipe (PCP), who lost his seat on the 30 January election, regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine:




Sérgio Sousa Pinto, PS MP, accused PCP of having deliriums of Western conspiracies against Russia, accusing PCP of being pro-Putin and of suggesting that this is the result of the "US imperialist machiavellianism". António Filipe (PCP), who lost his seat in the 30 January election, interrupted Sousa Pinto several times saying that wasn't true, in which Sousa Pinto said that if Filipe was calling him a liar, then he will call António Filipe insane. Sousa Pinto went on to say that PCP was a vassal of the Soviet Union and is now a vassal of Putin. Clearly angry, António Filipe threatened to leave the debate.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 03, 2022, 08:52:45 PM
PSD leadership election: PSD to convene again in a National Council meeting on March 14 to vote on a ballot date.


Quote
PSD National Council meets on March 14 to schedule ballot and Congress

Rio's leadership team met, this afternoon, and decided to call a national council meeting for March 14 in order to set the timetable for the party's leadership ballot. The previous PSD meeting, 2 weeks ago, demanded that Rio called a second meeting in 20 days, and Rio's team decided to call a meeting one day after the deadline to issuing ballots in the Europe constituency rerun on March 13. However, the party's leadership has to propose a date, but so far, there are no leaks on possible dates and they will probably only revealed the proposed date during next week. Rio has stated he wants to leave the leadership by July, hinting that he could propose an early June date for the leadership ballot, and a congress in late June. We'll see.

Earlier in the day, Rio had a lunch with the Ukrainian ambassador in Portugal, Inna Ohnivets (https://observador.pt/2022/03/03/psd-a-favor-de-conferir-a-ucrania-estatuto-de-candidato-a-estado-membro-da-ue/), and he announced that the PSD is in favour of admitting Ukraine as a candidate for EU membership. Ms Ohnivets has been meeting with several party leaders and office holders, from Costa to Marcelo, Moedas, Rio and Ventura, and has been asking for support for Ukraine's bid to be part of the EU.

P.S.: Sorry for the few updates. The issue is that because there's no government yet, the political scene here is basically stalled and there's basically no news on that front.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 08, 2022, 10:18:32 AM
Update on the rerun of the overseas vote: Overseas associations warn that ballots are not arriving to voters.  (https://www.publico.pt/2022/03/08/politica/noticia/presidente-comunidades-portuguesas-alerta-falta-boletins-voto-mai-assegura-enviou-19980049)

Associations of Portuguese Communities overseas are warning that ballots are not arriving to many voters across Europe. They acknowledge that some have received their ballots by mail, but that a large number is still waiting. The Interior Ministry says they have sent all the ballots, around 925,000, and that voters should be receiving them. They also report that as of now, only 1,389 ballots were returned. Overseas associations warn that ballots have to be postmarked by 13 March, in order to be accepted, and that many will probably not have the time to vote or collect their ballots.

At the same time, there seems to be a lot of anger in Portuguese voters overseas because of the counting mess, and many will not mail in their ballots.  (https://www.wort.lu/pt/portugal/eleic-es-boletins-j-comecaram-a-chegar-mas-emigrantes-est-o-divididos-sobre-votar-pela-segunda-vez-62265062de135b9236e30b93)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 08, 2022, 05:53:35 PM
Rising energy prices: Costa announces cut in fuel tax to attenuate VAT hike.


Quote
Government cuts ISP to limit fuel increases

Facing massive hikes in fuel prices in the last week, PM Costa announced some measures to alleviate the cost to consumers. Many have been pressing the government to cut fuel taxes, and Costa announced that, after this Friday, the fuel tax will be cut in order to attenuate the VAT hike, meaning that if the State collects 5 cents in VAT, those same 5 cents will cut from the fuel tax. Costa said that this meassure will not reduce the final price and will only try to insure that prices will not go up due to taxes. The government will do a weekly update on this matter.

It's expected for next week, another big hike in fuel prices: a 18 cent increase for diesel and 12 cent increase for gasoline. But only on Friday there will be a final number.

Update: The latest update is that diesel could rise 25 cents and gasoline 15 cents, with the tax reduction measure already taken into account. (https://sicnoticias.pt/economia/preco-dos-combustiveis-devera-voltar-a-subir-na-proxima-semana/)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 10, 2022, 10:46:35 AM
Some updates on the political scene:

- The PSD is set to convene next Monday to decide a leadership ballot date. Today, the media is leaking the proposed dates by Rio: 4 or 5 June for the leadership ballot and a party congress on late June/early July. (https://zap.aeiou.pt/direcao-nacional-do-psd-aponta-diretas-para-junho-e-congresso-para-julho-poiares-maduro-pode-entrar-na-corrida-466599) However, many in the party aren't happy with this timetable and preffer resolving the matter in May. Plus, some in the party are fed up with Rio dragging on his leadership and want to limit Rio's powers as leader, like the power to nominate names to the Council of State or select a caucus leader. Rio is worried that in the Monday meeting this could be voted. Regarding candidates, Luís Montenegro seems to be the favourite, but Miguel Poaires Maduro, former cabinet member during the Passos Coelho term, is considering a run. Carlos Moedas, Lisbon mayor, is also being pressured to run, but he has already said he will not run and in private is saying that the timing isn't right for it;

- Regarding the composition of Costa's next cabinet, to be sworn in on 29 March if nothing bad happens, again, in the overseas ballot counting, the media is beginning to leak some names (https://multinews.sapo.pt/noticias/novo-governo-siza-vieira-passa-para-os-negocios-estrangeiros-costa-e-silva-recebe-a-pasta-da-economia-e-medina-fica-com-as-financas/): The current Economy minister, Pedro Siza Vieira, will became Foreign Affairs minister, António Costa e Silva, the head of the Portuguese Covid Recovery plan, will become Economy minister and António Sampaio da Nóvoa, 2016 Presidential candidate, is set to become Education minister. The most controversial pick, however, is Fernando Medina as Finance minister. Some argue that this is a forced rehabilitation and Medina is still quite mocked because of the whole "Russiagate" thing from last year;

- Mariana Mortágua, BE MP, is currently involved in a controversy. A magazine revealed that she received payments from a TV network for being a pundit while she was exclusively working as a MP. (https://observador.pt/2022/03/10/mariana-mortagua-acumulou-exclusividade-no-parlamento-com-programa-remunerado-na-sic/) BE party rules say that their MPs have to be exclusively working in Parliament and are barred from accepting other outside payed jobs. Ms Mortágua has acknowledge that she indeed received payments from SIC TV and has apologized and announced she will return the money to SIC TV;

- PCP continues in the middle of heavy criticisms for their positions regarding the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and a PSD MP from Setúbal filed a complaint against the PCP caucus leader João Ferreira. (https://www.dn.pt/politica/queixa-contra-joao-oliveira-ps-desafiado-a-colocar-pcp-no-mesmo-patamar-do-chega--14657254.html) The complaint was sent to the Commission of Equality and Racial Discrimination and accuses João Ferreira of discriminating against the Ukrainians because of a quote in an interview Mr. Ferreira gave in which he said that "Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to incorporate Nazis into the armed forces". Mr Ferreira rejects the accusation, while the PSD MP, Nuno Carvalho, also challenges the PS to treat the PCP like they treat CHEGA;

- And regarding CHEGA, Ventura has imposed a gag law in the party's caucus (https://observador.pt/2022/03/10/chega-impoe-lei-da-rolha-aos-deputados-todo-o-contacto-com-os-jornalistas-passa-pela-assessoria/). According to the decision, the 12 MPs of CHEGA are forbidden to talk with the media without the approval of the party's press office. The party wants to control dissident voices within the party as it is now growing in size;


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 11, 2022, 10:19:53 AM
Crisis in BE: Party plans to fire people and close several headquarters.


Quote
Legislative Elections 2022: Bloc advances with dismissals and closure of headquarters

The massive losses in last January general election are taking a big toll in BE. The media is reporting that the party is planning to cut costs that will force firing people and closing or merging regional headquarters. The party has to cut 60% of their costs and in terms of regional structures, it's expected that only regional branches in Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Azores and Madeira will be able to have their own structures, and the rest across the country could be merged with the 3 remaining in the mainland. However, this restructuring is being badly received in the party with some BE members accusing the leadership of lack of transparency in this process.

The left-wing in Portugal is completely on the ropes...


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 11, 2022, 10:53:02 AM
Update on the rerun of the overseas vote: Almost 20,000 ballots returned so far.

This weekend, the in-person voting for voters overseas will be held. Just a tiny portion will be able to vote in person, around 400, as the overwhelming majority will send their ballots by mail. So far, 19,469 ballots have been returned.

However, there's a new problem. Overseas communities are warning that there's an error in the voting instructions (https://expresso.pt/politica/2022-03-11-Voto-dos-emigrantes-Instrucoes-incorretas-e-atraso-nos-boletins-pode-favorecer-abstencao-11a46b44): In the instructions pamphlets, it says that voters have to send their ballots postmarked by 12 March, but the Electoral Commission has announced they will accept ballots postmarked after 12 March if they arrive in Portugal by 23 March. Overseas communities are saying that this is creating a lot of confusion and that many voters will just not return their ballot. Adding to this, there's the anger and frustration of how the whole process unfolded.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 11, 2022, 06:14:56 PM
Turmoil in CHEGA continues: Party loses two more councillors as Ventura accuses them of "shaming" the party.

More exits from CHEGA: Party loses another councillor as a local party branch collapsed. (https://expresso.pt/politica/2022-03-11-Nucleo-concelhio-do-Chega-na-Moita-ruiu.-Partido-perde-mais-um-vereador-e-cinco-outros-autarcas-0b293a7a) The CHEGA-Moita local branch, Setúbal district, collapsed yesterday night when all local government member from the party left the party. CHEGA has now 15 councillors left, down from the 19 elected last September. Accusations of corrupt deals and that they are ignored by the national leadership are the main reason for this fallout.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 12, 2022, 11:40:29 AM
PSD leadership ballot: Rio proposes 28 May for the ballot day and a Congress between 1 an 3 July in Porto city.  (https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/03/11/direcao-do-psd-propoe-eleicoes-diretas-para-28-de-maio-e-congresso-devera-ser-entre-1-e-3-de-julho/)

Rui Rio will propose on the party's National Council meeting a leadership ballot on 28 May, with a possible 2nd ballot, if necessary, on 4 June. He will also propose a party congress for the weekend of 1 to 3 July in Porto city Coliseum. We'll see if the PSD councillors accept this timetable or will propose an alternative.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 15, 2022, 08:12:16 AM
First polling after the elections.

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:  (https://www.erc.pt/download/YToyOntzOjg6ImZpY2hlaXJvIjtzOjQyOiJtZWRpYS9zb25kYWdlbnMvb2JqZWN0b19vZmZsaW5lLzExNTYuNC5wZGYiO3M6NjoidGl0dWxvIjtzOjI2OiJ0dmktY25uLWZldmVyZWlyby0yODAyMjAyMiI7fQ==/tvi-cnn-fevereiro-28022022)

Vote share %: (compared with the election results)

37.1% PS (-4.4)
31.7% PSD (+2.5)
  7.3% IL (+2.4)
  5.6% CHEGA (-1.7)
  4.5% BE (+0.1)
  4.3% CDU (nc)
  2.7% Livre (+1.4)
  1.4% CDS (-0.2)
  1.3% PAN (-0.3)
  4.1% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Hypothetical scenario: Luís Montenegro as PSD leader and Nuno Melo as CDS leader

Vote share %: (compared with the election results)

36.5% PS (-5.0)
30.6% PSD (+1.4)
  7.2% IL (+2.3)
  5.3% CDS (+3.7)
  4.4% BE (nc)
  4.4% CDU (+0.1)
  4.2% CHEGA (-3.1)
  2.5% Livre (+1.2)
  1.3% PAN (-0.3)
  3.6% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

Poll conducted between 15 and 20 February 2022. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.08%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 15, 2022, 10:14:00 AM
PSD leadership ballot: Rio proposes 28 May for the ballot day and a Congress between 1 an 3 July in Porto city.  (https://eco.sapo.pt/2022/03/11/direcao-do-psd-propoe-eleicoes-diretas-para-28-de-maio-e-congresso-devera-ser-entre-1-e-3-de-julho/)

Rui Rio will propose on the party's National Council meeting a leadership ballot on 28 May, with a possible 2nd ballot, if necessary, on 4 June. He will also propose a party congress for the weekend of 1 to 3 July in Porto city Coliseum. We'll see if the PSD councillors accept this timetable or will propose an alternative.

The PSD National Council meeting approved Rio's timetable for the leadership ballot. (https://www.tsf.pt/portugal/politica/conselho-nacional-arranca-sem-rui-rio-e-sem-candidatos-a-lider-assumidos-14681009.html) The proposal to change the date of the congress to June was rejected. Therefore, candidates for the PSD leadership have to present their candidacy until 16 May, and if a 2nd round is needed, it will be held on 4 June. Rio himself wasn't present in the meeting as he contracted Covid and is in isolation.

Luís Montenegro is expected to announce his candidacy in the next few days, according to the media.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 15, 2022, 02:01:27 PM
Overseas vote rerun update:

152 voters, out of 400, cast an in-person ballot last weekend. (https://www.jpn.up.pt/2022/03/15/152-emigrantes-foram-votar-na-repeticao-das-eleicoes-do-circulo-da-europa/) Compared with the annulled vote in January, there was an increase of 36 voters.

Regarding mail-in ballots, the Interior Minister announced that, so far, they have received 37,605 ballots. Ballots will be accepted until 23 March and will start being counted on the same day.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Battista Minola 1616 on March 16, 2022, 09:12:56 AM
A bit of a random question, but I was wondering if Mike or someone else knows where I can find political maps or full broken-down data from the First Republic. I saw there is some of this on Portuguese Wikipedia but it is very spotty and about as confusing as that time period itself, although it still suggested political-geographical cleavages were nothing like in the modern day. Do you know anything better or more complete?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 16, 2022, 10:29:50 AM
A bit of a random question, but I was wondering if Mike or someone else knows where I can find political maps or full broken-down data from the First Republic. I saw there is some of this on Portuguese Wikipedia but it is very spotty and about as confusing as that time period itself, although it still suggested political-geographical cleavages were nothing like in the modern day. Do you know anything better or more complete?

Unfortunately, there isn't a compact platform with pre-1974 elections data, and what is out there is just scattered information, in which you have to do a lot of research until finding what you want, and sometimes there's even not much at all.

I found some documents about some of the elections and events in that period:

1922 election: https://repositorio.iscte-iul.pt/bitstream/10071/19044/1/master_duarte_cacao_vieira.pdf

1918 election and period: https://www.parlamento.pt/Parlamento/Paginas/Republica-Nova.aspx

1st Republic period: https://books.openedition.org/cidehus/3753

The fall of the Republic: https://books.openedition.org/cidehus/3786

They are all in Portuguese.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 18, 2022, 07:14:05 AM
Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio on the Russia-Ukraine war:  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/infografias/quem-e-o-culpado-da-guerra-e-como-os-portugueses-olham-a-posicao-da-nato-14691882.html)

Q1: Should NATO intervene directly in the war?

42% No
38% Yes
20% Undecided

- Younger voters want military intervention from NATO (49%);
- Older voters reject the idea of military intervention (59%);
- Women more in favour of military intervention than men;

Q2: Should the EU continue the path to a common army?

68% Yes
16% No
16% Undecided

Q3: Who's the main responsible for this war?

88% Russia
  4% USA
  2% Ukraine
  1% NATO
  1% EU
  4% Undecided

Q4: What's Russia main goal with this war?

65% Recover its influence and dominance in former USSR territories
18% Prevent Ukraine's accession to NATO
  8% Change the Ukrainian government
  4% Prevent Ukraine's accession to the EU
  3% Demilitarize Ukraine
  2% Other

Poll conducted between 10 and 14 March 2022. Polled 765 voters. MoE of 3.56%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 18, 2022, 02:02:44 PM
New Government: President Marcelo expects to swear in Costa's cabinet on 30 March.  (https://www.publico.pt/2022/03/18/politica/noticia/presidente-revela-novo-governo-tomara-posse-30-marco-1999333?ref=hp&cx=latest_news_a_v2--496639&ref=hp&cx=latest_news_a_v2--496639)

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, currently in a State visit to Mozambique, announced he expects to have Costa's cabinet sworn in on 30 March, adding that the new Parliament will also be sworn in during the previous day, on 29 March. Costa also announced he will deliver the list of ministers to the President on 23 March.

This seems to be the final timetable if, of course, nothing goes wrong, again, during the overseas ballot counting.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 20, 2022, 11:28:52 AM
PSD leadership: Carlos Moedas is officially out of the race.  (https://www.publico.pt/2022/03/20/politica/noticia/carlos-moedas-afasta-candidatura-lideranca-missao-lisboa-1999455)

Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas is officially out of the PSD race. In an interview to DN newspaper, Moedas said he's "married to Lisbon" and that there's no hesitancy regarding the PSD leadership. However, he refused to endorse any of the possible candidates. Some in the media have been reporting that Moedas was receiving pressures to run for the leadership, but these pressures didn't make sense as Moedas is only mayor for around 5 months and any run for the PSD top job right now, would be political suicide.

MEP Paulo Rangel has also announced he will not run, while other less electable candidates like Pedro Rodrigues, former JSD leader, and Ribau Esteves, Aveiro mayor, are considering running. But, overall, the leadership seems to be a walk in the park for Luís Montenegro, the only candidate that is preparing a run.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 21, 2022, 11:24:13 AM
Overseas election rerun: Update in ballots returned.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2022-03-21-A-dois-dias-do-prazo-apenas-metade-dos-emigrantes-votou-na-repeticao-dos-votos-na-Europa-e258333b)

According to the Interior Minister, until this Monday morning, around 96,000 mail ballots arrived in Portugal from European countries. On Friday, the minister had 77,736 returned ballots, but the number increased during the weekend.

Tomorrow, 22 March, counting officials will start processing ballots and only ballots that arrive before the afternoon of 23 March, will be counted.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 22, 2022, 10:11:41 AM
The counting and processing of the overseas ballots has started in Lisbon:



First results are expected during tomorrow's evening. So far, 107,553 ballots have been returned.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 22, 2022, 02:27:47 PM
First indications of the overseas ballots counting are that there will be a lot of invalid ballots (https://expresso.pt/politica/2022-03-22-Medo-desconhecimento-ou-voto-de-protesto--Mais-de-107-mil-boletins-de-emigrantes-ja-foram-recebidos-mas-muitos-continuam-sem-copia-do-CC-f6da8876). Several ballots continue to not be accompanied by an ID card copy, invalidating them immediately.

However, and unlike in the first election, the ballots are being separated and no issues have been brought up so far.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 22, 2022, 05:51:32 PM
New government:

At the same time the ballots from Europe are being processed, the media is leaking Costa's list of ministers for the next government. (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/antonio-costa/medina-nas-financas-e-siza-vieira-de-saida-este-deve-ser-o-novo-governo-de-costa/20220322/623a30f30cf2cc58e7e9f7a1) Costa wanted to avoid leaks, but, here's the list:

- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- João Sobrinho Teixeira, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Cláudio Monteiro, Justice Minister
- Pedro do Carmo, Agriculture and Sea Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- André Moz Caldas, Culture Minister

Including Costa, it's 18 cabinet members. Costa said he was planning to form a smaller cabinet, but, this list has the same number of ministers as his first cabinet (2015-2019), and just two less compared with his 2nd cabinet. In terms of parity, this leaked list has 11 men and 6 women.

This leak of names, overall, isn't surprising. The main surprises are the Defence and Justice minister which are complete unknowns.

We'll see if this will be the real list of minister.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 23, 2022, 12:27:11 PM
Overseas rerun: PSD loses one MP as the PS wins the last two seats available.  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2022-03-23-Repeticao-das-eleicoes-tira-um-deputado-ao-PSD.-PS-elege-2-na-Europa-3e2c5955)

The PSD suffered a big defeat in the rerun of the overseas votes from Europe. With 2 countries still to be counted, the PS will win all 2 seats and the PSD will lose the one they had won in the original election in January.

With 2 countries still to report: (94,475 ballots)

32.7% PS, 2 seats (+1)
14.9% PSD, 0 (-1)
  6.4% CHEGA, 0
  2.7% PAN, 0
  2.3% BE, 0
  2.1% IL, 0
  1.2% CDU, 0
  1.2% Livre, 0
  1.0% CDS, 0
35.5% Others/Invalid, 0

The % of Invalid ballots is currently at 31.84%!!!


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Boobs on March 23, 2022, 12:30:10 PM
How likely is Costa to serve out the entire term as PM?

IIRC isn't Nuno Santos floated as a potential successor to him?


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 23, 2022, 12:41:57 PM
How likely is Costa to serve out the entire term as PM?

IIRC isn't Nuno Santos floated as a potential successor to him?

No one knows, to be honest. If a majority government basically ensures stability for 4 years, Costa's options may alter, and here enters the very old rumour that Costa wants to be President of the European Council. He was actually invited in 2019, but declined as he was running for reelection as PM, but the job is up for grabs in 2024. How will the country be at that time? Will Costa be feed up and resign to go to Europe like Durão Barroso did in 2004? We don't know. The media is talking about this rumour and Costa's positions towards VAT on energy and so on, is very aligned with EU rules, unlike what the Spanish government, for example, is persuing. Is he launching a "charm campaign" to the EU? Only time will tell.

However, if Costa does go to the EU in 2024, there will probably be a snap election. President Marcelo has told, off the record, to almost everyone in the political sphere that he will not accept a new PS Prime Minister without elections and a repeat of the 2004-2005 political crisis, when Durão Barroso was replaced by Santana Lopes.

Yes, Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as the strongest candidate to succeed Costa, however, he's not very popular and is aligned with the more leftwing parts of the PS, that wants closer links with PCP and BE. There are other possible contenders in this race: Fernando Medina (although he's still very tainted by the whole Russiagate fiasco, and his pick as Finance minister isn't very well seen) and Ana Catarina Mendes (not very popular within the PS).


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 23, 2022, 12:57:58 PM
Final results of the Europe rerun election:

Vote share % (109,350 ballots)

33.0% PS, 2 seats (+1)
15.0% PSD, 0 (-1)
  7.1% CHEGA, 0
  2.7% PAN, 0
  2.5% IL, 0
  2.4% BE, 0
  1.4% Livre, 0
  1.3% CDU, 0
  1.1% CDS, 0
33.5% Others/Invalid

11.8% Turnout

30.0% of the votes (32,777 ballots) were invalidated.

Final results of the 2022 general elections (Finally!!)

Vote share %:

41.4% PS (+5.1), 120 seats (+12)
29.1% PSD (+1.3), 77 (-2)
  7.2% CHEGA (+5.9), 12 (+11)
  4.9% IL (+3.6), 8 (+7)
  4.4% BE (-5.1), 5 (-14)
  4.3% CDU (-2.0), 6 (-6)
  1.6% CDS (-2.6), 0 (-5)
  1.6% PAN (-1.7), 1 (-3)
  1.3% Livre (+0.2), 1 (nc)
  0.4% RIR (-0.3)
  0.2% PCTP/MRPP (-0.5)
  0.2% JPP (nc)
  0.2% ADN (nc)
  0.1% MPT (-0.1)
  0.1% Volt Portugal (new)
  0.1% MAS (nc)
  0.1% E (-0.2)
  0.1% NC (-0.1)
  0.1% PTP (-0.1)
  0.0% Alliance (-0.7)
  0.0% PPM (-0.2)
  2.6% Blank/Invalid ballots (-2.3)

51.4% Turnout (+2.9)

Graphic representation of the new Parliament:


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 23, 2022, 02:07:56 PM
There seems to be an ongoing "incident" between President Marcelo and PM Costa:  (https://expresso.pt/politica/2022-03-23-Pelos-vistos-soube-pela-comunicacao-social.-Marcelo-irritado-com-divulgacao-de-ministros-dispensa-audiencia-com-Costa-c69c44ca)

The leak of the list of ministers in the next cabinet upset Marcelo, and while he was arriving at an event, regarding the 50th anniversary of the 1974 revolution, the President told reporters that if everyone knows the list of ministers and because he was informed by the media, he would probably cancel his audience with Costa tonight.

A few hours later, the Presidential Palace confirmed that the audience between Marcelo and Costa was cancelled.

Also, some changes in the leaked list from CNN last night:
- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- João Sobrinho Teixeira, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Cláudio Monteiro, Justice Minister
- Pedro do Carmo, Agriculture and Sea Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- André Moz Caldas, Culture Minister

The new "leaked" list:

- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy and Sea Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- Elvira Fortunato, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Catarina Sarmento e Castro, Justice Minister
- Maria do Céu Antunes, Agriculture Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- André Moz Caldas, Culture Minister

In terms of gender it's now a tie, unlike the first leak: 9 men vs 9 women.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 23, 2022, 06:09:19 PM
The new "leaked" list:

- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy and Sea Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- Elvira Fortunato, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Catarina Sarmento e Castro, Justice Minister
- Maria do Céu Antunes, Agriculture Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- André Moz Caldas, Culture Minister

In terms of gender it's now a tie, unlike the first leak: 9 men vs 9 women.

The official and final list of cabinet ministers only has a difference between the leak above, in the Culture ministry:

- António Costa, Prime Minister
- Fernando Medina, Finance Minister
- Mariana Vieira da Silva, Minister of the Premiership
- Ana Catarina Mendes, Deputy and Parliamentary Affairs Minister
- Marta Temido, Health Minister
- António Costa e Silva, Economy and Sea Minister
- João Gomes Cravinho, Foreign Affairs Minister
- José Luís Carneiro, Interior Minister
- Ana Mendes Godinho, Labour Minister
- Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure Minister
- Elvira Fortunato, Higher Education Minister
- João Costa, Education Minister
- Helena Carreiras, Defence Minister
- Catarina Sarmento e Castro, Justice Minister
- Maria do Céu Antunes, Agriculture Minister
- Ana Abrunhosa, Territorial Cohesion Minister
- Duarte Cordeiro, Environment Minister
- Pedro Adão e Silva, Culture Minister

Pedro Adão e Silva, the chairman of the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution (a nomination that created a lot of controversy), will be the Culture minister. The Government also has 38 secretaries of state for the different ministries. Overall, Costa's 3rd cabinet will have 56 members.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 24, 2022, 10:38:12 AM
An interesting milestone was surpassed today, 24 March 2022.

The number of days in democracy, starting on 25 April 1974, surpassed the number of days of the 1926-1974 Dictatorship, 17,500 vs 17,499 days:



A light and sound show was held in the Parliament facade, last night, at midnight, to celebrate the moment:



Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 24, 2022, 02:17:35 PM
Opposition parties reaction to the new government:  (https://jornaleconomico.pt/noticias/da-direita-a-esquerda-o-que-dizem-os-partidos-sobre-a-constituicao-do-novo-governo-868113)

The opposition parties have been reacting to the composition of Costa's new cabinet. The PSD advised the government to change its posture in some dossiers, while IL says that the new government is quite big, and that Costa failed to create a true "taskforce" government like he promissed.

CHEGA says the new government has no news to report, but they label the pick of Medina as Finance Minister as a "bad joke" due to his role in the Russiagate last year. BE said that the new government will have a lot of tests to pass and only after that can it be evaluated, and PCP pointed that many reappointed  ministers didn't solve any problems and that this is not very good news. PAN, like CHEGA, also criticized the choice of Fernando Medina as minister.

Also, another political story has been surprising many people: Former PAN and Independent MP, Cristina Rodrigues, will be working for CHEGA.  (https://www.jn.pt/nacional/cristina-rodrigues-vai-ser-assessora-do-chega--14706886.html)

Former MP Cristina Rodrigues (2019-2022), elected by PAN but then left the party and remained as an Independent MP, announced that she will be an advisor for CHEGA in Parliament. She will advice the party's caucus on law matters. From left to right, but mainly from the left, there is a lot of criticisms (https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/politica/1960452/sem-principios-eis-as-reacoes-a-ida-de-cristina-rodrigues-para-o-chega) towards Ms Rodrigues for her decision to be involved with CHEGA.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 24, 2022, 07:24:16 PM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper on the election results:  (https://sicnoticias.pt/eleicoes-legislativas/sondagem-sic-expresso-14-dos-eleitores-decidiu-no-proprio-dia-em-quem-votar-ps-foi-o-que-mais-beneficiou/)

Q1: When did you decide in which party to vote?

67% More than a month before
14% On election day
  9% Two weeks before election day
  7% One month before election day

Vote share % of those who decided on election day (14%)

28% PS
11% PSD
   6% CHEGA
   5% BE
   3% CDU
   2% IL
   6% Others
  7% Invalid
34% Refused to answer

Q2: Are you satisfied with your vote decision?

83% Yes
16% No

Q3: Are you satisfied with the PS absolute majority victory?

48% Not satisfied
42% Satisfied
10% Undecided

Poll conducted between 11 February and 7 March 2022. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 25, 2022, 11:03:01 AM
GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll vote transfer diagram:


(More analysis clicking in the tweet)

PS and PSD gained votes from non-2019 voters, while PS won a lot of BE 2019 voters and PSD basically won all of the 2019 CDS vote. CHEGA gained the most votes from abstentionists, while IL gained votes from, also, abstentionists, PSD and, surprisingly, BE.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 25, 2022, 02:22:59 PM
"Super Sunday" local by-elections (lol): 3 parishes elect new local assemblies on Sunday.

The first local by-elections of the 2021-2025 local government term will take place next Sunday, 27 March. Parishes in Vila Real, Viseu and Santarém districts, that failed to form a local government, will vote again. The 3 parishes are the following:

- São Mamede de Ribatua parish (https://www.cne.pt/content/af-de-sao-mamede-de-ribatua-alijovila-real), Alijó, Viseu: The PSD won the elections in 2021, 39%, but lost its majority as the PS, 29%, and a local Independent movement, 26%, gained seats. Parties failed to reach a deal to manage the parish and the parish assembly was dissolved. In the by-election, however, the local Independent movement will not run and only PS and PSD will be on the ballot. The parish has 661 registered voters;

- Alvega e Concavada parish (https://www.cne.pt/content/af-de-alvega-e-concavada-abrantessantarem), Abrantes, Santarém: The PS won the elections here in 2021, with 34%, but there was a 3-way tie in terms of seats as PS, PSD and BE won 3 seats each. Also, no deal was reached and the assembly was dissolved. 3 lists are in the ballot: PS, CDU and an Independent coalition between PSD and BE. The parish has 1,680 registered voters;

- Penedono e Granja parish (https://www.cne.pt/content/af-de-penedono-e-granja-penedonoviseu), Penedono, Viseu: The PSD won, last September, by just a 6 vote difference from the PS, but an Independent list also one a seat, thus ending the PSD majority in the parish. Again, no deal was reached to manage the parish and a new election had to be held. The same lists of 2021 will run again: PS, PSD and an Independent list. The parish has 1,122 registered voters.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 26, 2022, 07:53:12 AM
Final and certified results of the 2022 general elections:  (https://www.cne.pt/news/ar-2022-mapa-dos-resultados-oficiais_7437)

()
Image Link (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/14362_26_03_22_7_50_50.png)


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 27, 2022, 10:41:15 AM
New government: Criticisms grow as Costa is accused of making a government with the "Lisbon Court".


Quote
New Government: Costa accused of making Government with the Lisbon “court”

With the new government now fully known, evaluations on who got in to cabinet are being given, and some are not very positive. Many on the media point that Costa formed a government in order to plan his succession in the PS and that he didn't create a dynamic team to reform the country. But, even within the PS, some are uncomfortable with the new cabinet. According to Público newspaper, several PS high profile members are saying, off the record, that Costa did a government "only for Lisbon" and that he forgot the rest of the country. Some also add that including in the government all of the main leaders in the PS leadership may not be a good idea.

President Marcelo was also pressured by reporters to comment on the new cabinet (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/videos/marcelo-sobre-formacao-do-governo-nao-sou-o-primeiro-ministro-sou-presidente-da-republica/6240555c0cf21a10a42796c2). After the "leak incident" between Marcelo and Costa last Wednesday, the President said that it's Costa's picks and that he is not Prime Minister, but if he were, he wouldn't of course pick the same people as Costa did.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 28, 2022, 06:07:18 AM
"Super Sunday" local by-elections (lol): 3 parishes elect new local assemblies on Sunday.

Results of Sunday's local by-elections:

Alvega e Concavada parish by-election (https://www.sg.mai.gov.pt/AdministracaoEleitoral/EleicoesReferendos/AutarquicasIntercalares/Documents/2022/Resultados_UFAlvegaConcavada_2022.pdf): Independent (PSD+BE) gain over PS.

Vote share %:

51.2% Independent (PSD+BE), 5 seats (-1)
39.3% PS, 4 (+1)
   8.4% CDU, 0
   1.0% Blank/Invalid

56.0% Turnout

São Mamede de Ribatua parish by-election (https://www.sg.mai.gov.pt/AdministracaoEleitoral/EleicoesReferendos/AutarquicasIntercalares/Documents/2022/Resultados_SMamedeRibatua_2022.pdf): PSD hold

Vote share %:

63.0% PSD, 5 seats (+2)
35.3% PS, 2 (nc)
  1.7% Blank/Invalid

63.6% Turnout

Penedono e Granja parish by-election (https://www.sg.mai.gov.pt/AdministracaoEleitoral/EleicoesReferendos/AutarquicasIntercalares/Documents/2022/Resultados_UFPenedonoGranja_2022.pdf): PSD hold

50.9% PSD, 5 seats (+1)
42.8% PS, 4 (nc)
  5.5% Independent, 0 (-1)
  0.8% Blank/Invalid

59.8% Turnout


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 29, 2022, 04:49:32 AM
New Parliament: Today, MPs are sworn in and a new Speaker is elected.  (https://observador.pt/liveblogs/tomada-de-posse-do-parlamento-deputados-ja-estao-a-chegar-a-assembleia-da-republica/)

The new 230 MPs are being sworn in today and the 15th legislature will now start. After lunch time, MPs will also elect a new Speaker. The vote is by secret ballot and only one candidate is on the ballot, the PS candidate Augusto Santos Silva.

His election is guaranteed as the PS has 120 votes, 4 more than what's needed for a majority, but the other parties from left to right, aren't committing in supporting Mr Santos Silva.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 29, 2022, 09:19:19 AM
PSD leadership: Luís Montenegro officially announces that he will run for the leadership.


Quote
It's official. Luís Montenegro will be a candidate for the leadership of the PSD

In a short message to Lusa Agency, Luís Montenegro confirmed that after "discussing with party members and voters" he decided to run for the party's leadership. A public announcement is expected for next week. This is Montenegro's second run for the leadership, after being defeated by Rio in 2020 by a 53-47% margin.

Other possible contenders, but with little chance, like Aveiro mayor Ribau Esteves, are also expected to announce if they run or not for the leadership in the next few days.


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 29, 2022, 10:47:23 AM
Results of the Speaker's vote in Parliament:

156 Augusto Santos Silva (67.8%)
  63 Blank ballots (27.4%)
  11 Invalid ballots (4.8%)

230 Total


Title: Re: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
Post by: Mike88 on March 29, 2022, 01:43:34 PM
Reactions to Santos Silva election as Speaker:


Quote
Santos Silva promises impartial, restrained and unifying presidency of parliament

In his first remarks as Speaker-elect, Santos Silva promissed to be "impartial, restrained and unifying". He praised his predecessor, Ferro Rodrigues, and then thanked the Portuguese overseas. He also attacked those who use patriotism in order to be nationalists, saying that the nationalists hate other nations, and shut down their own. He also said that under his Speakership only hate speech will be forbidden in the chamber, as it's a speech of insult and not debate. All parties, except CHEGA, applauded the speech.

In the party's reactions, the PS applauded Santos Silva speech, adding that the PS was always a party that fought against fascism and that the party will always fight for democracy. The PSD highlighted that with a majority government, the PS has no excuses to not reform the country, adding they are willing to help if necessary. CHEGA criticized Santos Silva's speech with Ventura saying that he's not ashamed of saying he loves his country and that the party will be a voice for the common man. IL accused the PS of confunding itself with the State and promissed a strong opposition. PCP warned about the dangers of absolute majorities, while BE talked about the "imperialism" that started the war in Ukraine and that Parliament should guide itself with values of peace.

When Santos Silva wanted to give a minute for the single MPs of PAN and Livre, Ventura asked to talk and complained that in 2019, he was forbidden to do the same, thus, criticizing the double standarts regarding CHEGA. PAN thanked the gesture from Santos Silva, while Livre criticized CHEGA.