Talk Elections

49-45 Biden/Trump
47-45 Trump/Buttigieg
48-44 Trump/Warren
51-45 Trump/Sanders

Favourables:

51-33 Biden
33-30 Buttigieg
45-48 Trump
36-51 Warren
35-52 Sanders


https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/biden-is-only-democrat-currently-outpolling-trump-in-virginia/article_322639e4-ac3a-562b-86b9-3c56e210e408.html

That favorability number for Biden is impressive.

Numbers seem to high for Trump, his approval in the 2018 exit polls was 43/57 in VA, how can his favourability be 45-48 in VA unless something drastic has occurred, I'm not saying the poll is wrong, just that Trump's fav/unfav numbers are hard to believe, I don't think he's at 45/48 in VA.

LOL, no. If Tump's approval is -10 countrywide, it certainly isn't only -3 in Virginia.

Buttigieg's numbers are impressive (especially among Whites), considering he's only at 60% name recognition.

Sanders/Warren are doing horrible, but who knows ?

Mason-Dixon has always struck me as having an anti-Socialist and R-leaning agenda, but on the other hand they were pretty good in the Governor races this year ...

538 shows them with a mild R lean on average (R+0.7).

Am I the only one who does not buy that Trump is only down 4 to Biden, despite him being at +18 according to this poll and Trump being at -3

You're not the only one.  They don't seem consistent.

It's really hard to see how Trump can being down by 2 in Florida while he is only down by 4 in Virginia. It's not 2012 anymore.

And LOL at the fact that Trump would defeat Sanders by 6 in a state that has not voted for a republican candidate since 2009.

The only thing that we can clearly point out from these polls are that roughly 50% of Americans may still be walking amongst us, but can be rated braindead already from a medical point of view.

True, but these are seriously worrying numbers for a general regardless. Biden is our only hope.

I admit that Biden is the strongest potential democratic candidate but I really doubt that he would do so much better than Sanders, sure there are some centrist voters who could defect to Trump if democrats nominate a very liberal candidate, but let's be honest people who approve Trump will vote for him and people who don't like him will for the vast majority of them vote for the democratic candidate no matter who he is.

That's what drives me nuts when people act as though there's some massive pool of undecideds who will all swing one way or the other, guaranteeing victory for the Democrats or a landslide for Trump. 

You see it with impeachment polling, a major emphasis on Independents that both sides parade around as though it makes a big point.  BUT to be fair, even if their overall population might be small, these voters were a significant part of Trump's win in 2016.  And outside of ultra- partisanship, most observers can agree that 2020 will likely be another close race.  

It's a single janky poll before we've even begun approaching the meat of the campaigns.  Deep breaths.

It's definitely a Republican friendly sample, so those Biden favorablity numbers are extra impressive.

Looks like the good people of Virginia know the Hunter Biden stuff is total malarkey. Fantastic numbers.

Yeah, the democratic candidate will almost certainly win at least 48% of the vote, then you have Trump who will win at least 46% of the vote, you have also the 2% of the electorate which will vote for third parties, in the end it means that only 4% of the electorate is really up for grab for each candidate.

is this 2012

It's because the general public just doesn't care.

The average American can't even locate Ukraine on a map, so it makes sense that the intricacies of either Trump's quid-quo-pro or Hunter Biden's alleged shady dealings don't really resonate with the public at large.  

We here on Atlas pay attention, of course.  But nine-to-five Joe Schmo doesn't.  Consider the Clinton impeachment.   Whether you thought he should be removed from office or not, that scandal resonated with people because it was sexy, literally and figuratively.  "The POTUS running around behind his wife's back , getting "favors", and then lying about it".  That's easy to understand and digest.  

But Hunter Biden's dealings in Ukraine? Or President Trump withholding foreign aid on the condition of an investigation into a political rival? That's not "sexy" or "scandalous" enough for the general public.  

Yeah, at least according to this pollster. Florida and Virginia are both tossup.

I hope they release the regional breakdown of this.

Keep in mind: The Election is a year away and Biden's Favorables will surely come down.

If those numbers are anywhere near accurate, we’re looking at a Republican landslide.

Hint: They’re not, and VA is going to be much more Democratic than that. Safe D, folks!

Trump will not win Virginia against the Bern or anyone else not named Biden. He will end up in the 43-46% range, which is not enough to flip state.

However, this poll, as many others, should make it very clear who is the best candidate to take Trump down. Yes, the election is a year away, but Biden has already been targeted with Ukraine and he's still doing better than anyone else. Bernie, Liz and Pete haven't been under the same fire from Republicans for now, which would change once they get nominated.

Big takeaway from this very poll is that NoVa moderate suburbanites want Uncle Joe.

Trump will win Virginia against anyone other than Biden.

Nice of you, Politician, for reminding us that Bernie and Warren do worse in basically every poll than Biden. Thanks!

Of course Atlas is buying this poll ::) Sanders losing VA by 6 is about as believable as him winning OH by 8. But whatever feeds people’s narratives, I guess.

Yeah, sure...

A scandal involving a President's family members slide. Neil Bush managed a savings-and-loot into bankruptcy while his father was President, and Democrats did not exploit that.

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

In all likelihood, this poll sample is overly (moderate) Republican and as any GE campaign heats up, Bipartiden's favorables and appeal will get shredded, with those voters hunkering down where they always were going to be (with Trump).

After all, Virginia is basically the national capital of "economically conservative and socially liberal" and "I'm a very thoughtful and deliberate swing voter (not)".

Sanders would not lose Virginia, let alone lose it by 6.

Yes, because Trump losing GA (narrowly) is believable, Trump winning VA really isn’t.

I’m a mild-mannered person, but I have ZERO tolerance for the "VA is a swing state" crowd. That said, I’m not going to let this poll raise my blood pressure on New Year's Eve.

You have all of 2020 to get that hypertension going, Indyrep!

The scandal you talk about was the looting of Savings and Loan Scandal of the 1980s, which was well-documented by the book, Inside Job by Steven Pizzo, Mary Fricker, and Paul Muolo:

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The reason the Democrats didn't make hay over Neil Bush is because the S & L scandal was a massive scandal, and a bi-partisan scandal.  It involved gross mismanagement of the S & L industry by the regulators (whose power and numbers were cut back by Reagan).  The industry was "deregulated" essentially to make riskier loans using commercial properties as collateral, and to make loans on properties far away from their home bases.  It allowed for massive "growth" of these institutions, which ended in default and bankruptcy for these institutions, for investors, and for many ordinary individuals.  At the time, it was one of the biggest financial failures in our history, requiring a record bailout through the RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation).

And it was a BI-PARTISAN scandal.  It involved the Keating Five (Sens DeConcini, Glenn, Riegle, Cranston, and McCain; four (4) Democrats and one (1) Republican).  It was favors to S & L crooks in Texas that led to the downfall of Speaker Jim Wright (D-TX).  It led to massive investigations of Democratic political figures in Louisiana, including Judge Edmund Reggie, the father of Ted Kennedy's second wife.  It was a bi-partisan scandal, to be sure; many of the non-elected scandalous figures were major GOP activists, but it was very much an INSIDER scandal that the Democrats were not free to exploit, just because Neil Bush was part of it.  And it involved the sort of sketchy characters that would have made a great movie; politicians, moneymen, arms dealers, mobsters, CIA operatives, all were part of the looting, or the enabling of the looting.

Neil Bush, who's a privileged weasel, was, nonetheless, a minor part of that scandal, albeit a symbol of it.  He had no experience in running an S & L, yet he's at the top of one.  Why did he get on the Board of a S & L?  The answer is the same as the reason why Hunter Biden came to sit on Burisma's Board of Directors.  The scandal was much, much bigger, and included immediately recognizable names of both parties.

If this is true (99-1 it's not) then Trump is heading for a Clinton 1996 victory.

Polling 10 months out brings the worst in Atlas.

Why are you assuming that people base their entire opinion off of polling, or that polling is the primary tool people should use when predicting election results? I can’t speak for others here, but I’ve followed polling long enough to realize it’s predictive power has greatly diminished over the past few years when compared to actual election results. Not to mention polling of individual states often fails to account for a given state’s demographics, and pollsters often don’t weight accordingly.

None of this is to say that all polls are fake or that polling in general is useless. There are plenty of pollsters whose methodology is sound enough to pay attention. However, polling should be one of many factors one takes into account, and it is disingenuous to imply that we should every poll as gospel.

You're right on this one. At the moment something like that would not be surprising :
 Biden vs Trump : Biden wins 53/45
Buttigieg vs Trump : Buttigieg wins 52/45
Warren vs Trump : Warren wins 51/46
Sanders vs Trump : Sanders 50/46

I can't see any Democrat losing VA to Trump unless there is some sort of backlash of the wealthy voting for Trump out of their own financial interests if he's facing Warren or Sanders.

The gun sanctuary going on within the state seems to be helping Trump.

The Republicans haven't won a statewide race in the state in more than a decade, Tim Kaine won reelection by 16 points,  and the state voters just gave both chambers of the legislature to the Democrats... it's a blue state and suggesting that any Democrat would lose it to Donald Trump is ludicrious... it might be a closer race if Bernie or Warren is the nominee, but I doubt they would lose it.

Like how "post-birth abortion", Fairfax's rape scandals, and Northam's blackface were supposed to help the GOP hold the state legislature?

not at all. This one oversampled democrats.... D +12% Poll.  sorry

Among the 625 respondents, 42% described themselves as Democrats, 30% as Republicans and 28% as independents.

There is something inherently wrong with Trump, which wants to keep the Rich happy and dont want to help poor. This is why VA, which was an R state with Evangelicals,  became a D state, Evangelicals are conservative,  but help the poor.

Hahaha! This is way less accurate than their Florida poll.

It doesn't mean that VA is back to being a swing state, but it does add another datapoint in favor of the recent wave of national polls with a clear Trump PV lead.  This is feeling more and more like 1996 with the parties reversed (Trump obviously can't match Clinton's PV margin because of California, but I wouldn't dismiss the potential for a 51/47ish win if the economy stays this good).

The fact that it's a D+12 poll where not a single Democrat is leading by more than 4 further illustrates my point; the fact that party ID for this poll in a state like Virginia produces a result more like what a similar gap would produce in Louisiana says everything. You're also simplistically (or perhaps conveniently) ignoring the fact that nearly 3 in 10 voters don't fall into either major category of party ID - unless you think third party candidates are going to get 28% of the vote in 2020?

Trump won independents in VA by 5 in 2016. He'd need to win them by more than 2:1 based on this poll for the math to work out (either that, or you need to explain how/why Democrats are losing like 1 in 4 self-identified Democratic voters that they didn't lose in 2016).

Throw. It. In. The. Trash. And throw VA into the Safe Democratic basket while we're at it.

Well, a Democrat winning Georgia is at least plausible, even if Trump is favored. A Democrat losing Virginia goes against pretty much every election result of the past decade, unless they’re losing very badly. Now, if multiple reputable pollsters showed the Democrat down in VA in September/October and also showed Trump ahead in the PV, maybe then VA could conceivably go for Trump, but there’s no reason to believe that VA is in danger in a close race.

Maybe Trump's getting a Kavanaugh boost in this poll.

Snowbirds are staying closer to home, while younger folks are busy doing other things during the holiday season....

Regardless, junk poll any way you look at it....

I came here to ask why this poll is seen as nonsense, this certainly makes the most sense.

Biden beating Trump by 4% is consistent with the results of the 2019 senate elections in VA, senate Republicans ran 1.5% ahead of Trump last year, which would equate to a 3.8% margin of defeat, Biden  leads Trump by 4% which is basically the same margin. If Trump v Biden is basically going to be a straight R v D match-up, Trump doing about as well as Senate Republicans did in VA last year makes sense.

Why should we be so worried about this poll? This poll is consistent with Fox polls that show Biden ahead of Trump

Let me remind everyone that in 2017 there were some polls showing Gillespie leading Northam by as much as 8 points.

We have to consider the possibility that Trump is getting a sizable bump from his successful negotiation of "Phase 1" with China and the disarmament of North Korea.

That was 7 months before the election.  The gun stuff is likely helping Trump's numbers for the time being.

Not really buying that at all.  Odd year elections famously slow down national trends.  How does this make any more sense than saying Kentucky and Louisiana are toss ups in the presidential race based on the 2019 results?

I find it hard to imagine that anyone who's motivated by gun rights hasn't consistently been answering polls positively for Trump for many years.

Today, Mark's the one yr anniversary in VA, where medicaid expansion has provided thousands of life savings in VA. When a Dem is sworn in, this time, gun control will pass, without McConnell and his obstruction.

GoP isnt winning VA, with Mark Warner and Biden on the ballot. VA 2 is gonna be competetive

It's possible there are a bunch of otherwise apolitical gun owners who get motivated to answer polls and go vote when the government starts going after them. A lot of people only care about politics when they're angry.

There has been mass shootings all over the place and the country supports background checks for terrorists not gun owners, this is a false belief that got Garland blocked, and should of been recessed appointed

The governor's races in both states were pretty unique, take the margin in the LA house elections in 2019 and you get a good idea of where the state is.

I'm skeptical of any poll that says Trump is leading in Virginia after the GOP got their asses handed to them there in 2018, and they lost the 2019 State House elections by 9.4%. and the 2019 State Senate elections by 13.4%.

Lmao no. Trump is not winning Virginia, period.

This is an interesting point. considering that Virginia currently is ranked #5 in terms of the total numbers of guns owned per capita, as well as 5th in the total number of guns *registered* by State.

https://www.thoughtco.com/gun-owners-percentage-of-state-populations-3325153

I am extremely skeptical of these numbers, since I am extremely positive that there are way more than 61.4k registered guns in Oregon....

There per Capita numbers are crazy, since I don't believe that Wyoming has an average of 229 guns per capita!!??!!!

Total Guns *Registered* by State:

1.) Texas---- 588.7k Guns
2.) California--- 344.6k Guns
3.) Florida---     343.3k Guns
4.) Virginia---    307.8k Guns

Still, Virginia does appear to have a significantly higher than national average gun ownership, although that could also be explained by a high % of Military and Ex-Military folks, and higher reporting requirements involved because of Federal Related jobs (meaning that folks are more likely to report weapon ownership)....

Strongly doubt this will benefit the 'Pubs in VA, since for every vote they might gain in places such as SW VA they will lose two votes in NoVA....

That's not accurate, you have to take into account contested seats, in the contested seats the average GOP margin in the senate was 1.5% better than Trump. https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1191948895926063105

You can also look at the contested seats and compare their margin to 2016 which for the VA Senate in available on Daily Kos and the improvement is 1.5%.

Is your suggestion that Trump is going to make marked improvements in NOVA and Richmond suburbs.

Not really, again I think he can do around 1-2% better overall which is not a marked improvement and lose the sate by around 3-4%.

It's crazy that Biden is doing about as well in Florida as he is in Virginia.

This poll doesn't weight by education, and thus about as likely to be true as those education-unweighted polls of the midwestern states that show Biden winning by double digits. Biden would win Michigan by double digits if it was as educated as Massachusetts, and Trump would be competitive in Virginia was a middle-of-the-pack state education-wise (as opposed to being near the top) but that is not the reality with live in.

Mason-Dixon said Ralph Northam would win the governor's race by 1 point.

Biden has to win the nomination first, and Y2K voters dont like hime.

Please stay off the narcotics

This.

I don't believe the numbers either, and especially the differences between the candidates, but Biden's best placed to win Virginia.

lol

Some of the takes in this thread are so hot they could melt iron.

Some of the takes in this thread are so hot they could be in Maxim.

It's just Politician actually

Candidate quality does matter of course but considering Biden's margins in nova.. I wonder if Sanders would have done that much worse than Clinton did. Certainly at least Obama 2012 levels.