Talk Elections

Trails Kelly 47-44

https://www.dropbox.com/s/4mbv7c2auwqck54/Senate_Report.pdf?dl=0

Yep, the 2016 win by McCain is not in the cards for McSally

You little Democrats may have to consider something:

The Arizona Senate Race is a MUST-WIN Race for you IF you want to take back the Senate in 2020!

Any loss here and Republicans will retain the Senate.

Kyrsten Sinema won in 2018 because she ran to the Middle and cast herself as an Independent.

I don't see the same thing happening with this liberal Hawk Mark Kelly.

McSally is a garbage candidate.

McSally is damaged goods, news at 11. Interesting that Trump is underwater and the generic congressional ballot is tied 44-44. All indications are Arizona will be a swing state in 2020.

Yeah, a Trump-Kelly win is looking likely at this point. McSally is an incredibly weak incumbent.

Democrats like you still don't get it! Any possible Democratic Majority after the 2020 Elections include AZ. You lose here, your chances are immediatedly evaporating.

We get it. Democrats need Arizona. They might just get it. You better hope they do, too because a mid term will probably see Ducey replaced by a Democrat. The worst case scenario for AZ GOP would be for McSally to underperform an otherwise good night for Republicans.

She's down by 3 in that trash OH PI poll. Not good!

McSally is a good Defense Secretary for a future Republican cabinet, not as a Senator.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/arizona/senate

Electorate in 2018 was 38% Hillary 50% Trump. Hispanic turnout dropped off a cliff in 2018. Sienma won 11% of Trump voters.

Presumably the 2020 electorate will not be +12 Trump given that Trump only won by 3.5%

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Is this how consevatives feel when they drink liberal tears? Because I had a lot of satisfaction reading this Boomer post

Maybe Trump will consider if he wins and she loses?

Yeah, there's nothing "bold" or "unreasonable" about predicting that Trump will narrowly win AZ while McSally narrowly loses.

I didn't know we had a fourth-grader on this site...

Remember there are people who strongly believe that because 2016 had every state vote the same for Senate and President that going forward that will happen in every single election until the end of time.

Wouldn't be surprised to see:

AZ President GOP and AZ Sen Dem.
North Carolina could see GOP Pres/Dem Sen or the exact opposite.
Michigan being D Pres/GOP Senate is possible. More possible than people would want to admit.
Maine Dem Pres/GOP Senate is probable.

Arizona did see some statewide breakthrough for Democrats last year unlike the Democratic trending states of Georgia and Texas.

MI and ME polling has always has had GOP bias in them. EPIC polls always had a GOP bias; consequently,  Peter's narrowly wins

Maybe.

AZ looks like a great pick-up opportunity for BOTH Senate & WH, but NOT vital.  So many other opportunities: CO, NC, ME, GA(2), IA, even KY & KS.  WH & +3 Net = control. 

The fact that you're listing GA, IA, KY, and KS as part of your "path to a majority" shows just how vital it is, lol.

Gotta love my man saying that he can't see Mark Kelly replicating Sinema's win in a thread for a poll which shows Kelly at the exact same margin of victory over McSally that Sinema had.

Kelly is a Bill Nelson Dem, and will be the next Senator from AZ

Trump win in AZ isn't looking likely. It's a total tossup at this point.

Yeah, this is such a hilariously bad take. Even in 2016, Republicans almost lost a Senate race in a Trump +18 state and almost certainly would have held NH if it had not been for the conservative Independent candidate (Aaron Day) who received 2.4% of the vote.

2016, McCain was on the ballot, that's why McSally has run for 2 Senate seats; consequently,  AZ, TX and GA are no longer Safe R states due to Latinos and AA

The below scenerios are not impossible next year:

1) Trump loses Michigan and Peters sleepwalks and loses to a Republican candidate with high name ID.

2) Trump eeks out a week in Arizona due to a thin Democratic margin in Maricopa County, underwhelmng Democratic margin in Pima and a monstrous Trump margin in the remainder of the state for the GOP. But Kelly ends up defeating McSally. This is probably a highly likely scenerio.

3) North Carolina will be close irrespective next year due to demographics. Just a few niche voters can make a shift.

4) A Democratic win in Maine while Collins wins reelection seems like the most probable outcome at this point.

5) Trump/Dem Senate Kansas result has been a possibility for months and has been remarkably stable.

Those are five split possibilities right there!


Also coalitions could be significantly different. Duckworth and Clinton had differing coalitions even if the present trends probably cost Duckworth several downstate counties and prevented Kirk from winning his home county of Lake.


For 2022 midterms I do not know if I would call Hogan the Democratic Bredesen. Hogan would not be old news in 2022 and he may have a ceiling of 48% in a Senate race but a third party could put him in the Senate in a Democratic midterm.

Anyway all states voting the same for President and Senate in 2020... is. not. going. to. happen. Period.

McCain, who was a compassionate conservative was for: climate change, background checks and campaign finance reform, everything Graham, Sullivan, McSally, Gardner, Cornyn and McConnell arent. Collins, Ernst and SMC have been willing to compromise,  this is why the political divide is the way it is now. Why, those ones that dont want Reform will lose, in 2020, rather than 2022, where the outparty does better in midterms; consequently,  why Dems must regain Senate in 2020, not wait, for 2022, may miss our chance.