Talk Elections

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights (https://www.dropbox.com/s/6rhlttfgxw5gk95/Presidental%20Report.pdf), Dec. 3-4, 628 LV

Trump 46, Biden 44
Trump 45, Buttigieg 43
Trump 47, Warren 41
Trump 47, Bloomberg 40
Trump 47, Sanders 34

25% of respondents were the age of 44 or under.  As compared with ~40% of the 2016 Presidential electorate.  25% of the 2016 Arizona electorate was 65 and older... 37% (not good!) here.  You know what to do, folks!

JUNK IT.

Throw it on the pile, but I do think Arizona is more likely to flip than Wisconsin.

One of the best poll for Trump in a while, but I'm not really buying it.

Digging into the data on this poll is pretty interesting, below is basically the relevant points and also I've compared the poll results over time.

Trump approval is 48-50 and the generic congressional vote is 44R-44D. The sample is R+5, 39R-34D, for way of comparison the 2016 exit polls had the electorate at R+4 in AZ.

The last poll done by this pollster in 2018 had McSally +1 and she lost by 2.4% so they were 3.4% biased in favour of the Republican candidate so I would say they may have a slight 2-3 point bias in favour of Republicans looking at the 2018 results.

I’ll focus mostly on Trump vs Biden since the numbers have bounced around a lot for the other candidates this year, maybe related to name ID issues.

In February Trump and Biden were tied at 46-46, in May Trump trailed Biden 44-49, in August Trump trailed 43-45 and now in December Trump leads 46-44.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6rhlttfgxw5gk95/Presidental%20Report.pdf

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1203849269645598720

Taken at face value the latest poll would suggest a Biden lead of around 3.6% in the NPV assuming the swing in Arizona is similar to the nation, if you adjust the poll to account for a potential R bias, you might have Biden leading by around 6%. Certainly a far cry from the margins Biden is getting in the national polls vs Trump.

Sanders may not be the best fit for AZ, but no way he's losing that much. Junk.

Isn't this the polling firm that had Sinema getting destroyed by McSally in their second to last poll before then having a major correction in their last one?

Yeah, they had McSally up +7 the last week of October but then it changed to McSally +1 right before the election.

They didnt poll the Senate race, meaningless poll

LOL, they have polled the Senate Race as well just haven't released the Numbers. They will presumably do that in the coming Days.

It's because they only polled 25% of the "less than 40 years old" demographic.

1) Biden will be the nominee.
2) This is a fairly GOP-friendly pollster.
3) Democrats tend to outperform their pre-election polling in AZ.
4) Trump is clearly doing worse here than in several Obama/Trump Midwestern states.

Like WI for Democrats, this is not a state Republicans should count on.

It looks like McSally can comeback just like Ducey did in 2018, AZ is a tilt R state but it's a swing state

Basically Az is

Lean R with Bernie, Warren
Toss up with Biden
Tilt R with Pete, Bloomberg

This is basically a Republican pollster who showed that McSally had a good chance last year.

This is the pollster that showed McSally leading Sinema by a sizable margin, so it’s fair to say that it is way too R-friendly.

I wish they had polled the Senate race, though.

Polls also showed McCain in 2016 in a competetive race, remember, AZ leans right, Sinema won in a midterm not a Prez election,  and AZ is more R friendly in a Prez election.

So that means low turnout benefits D?

No, McCaskill and Heidi did lose, FL goes the other way, R in midterms and D in Prez; however, partisan politics are less affiliated in midterms than in Prez yrs, just like MA, votes R for Gov in midterms

This is at least the fourth poll showing Sanders doing worse than other candidates in AZ. Maybe they aren't too keen on his plans to replace air conditioning with "weatherized" insulation.

This is a trend I've noticed with polls over the last few weeks.  In the New Hampshire Democrat primary poll, they literally cut 18-29 year-old voters (Bernie's strongest supporters) in half, and then added older voters. 

Obviously,  this poll is off, QU has Biden leading Trump by 9 pts, if Kelly wins, so will Biden, I dont see the states splitting,  especially since TX and OH are more competitive than FL and PA

Yeah, Trump leading by 2% in a state where polling has underestimated Democratic strength recently in a poll which had McSally winning is surely good news for him. Clearly this poll/2018/"""elasticity""" means that the Republican-trending Trump +9 state is more likely to flip than the Romney +9/Trump +3 state.

Funny how 2018 matters in AZ but it doesnt matter in FL. I agee though AZ is clearly more likely to flip than IA though it is not more likely to flip than PA or MI.

^Nah, I’m not saying Trump is the underdog in AZ because of the 2018 results, just that this particular pollster had McSally winning in 2018. That’s all. :P

Also agree that AZ isn’t much more likely to flip than PA.

Biden is gonna win AZ if Kelly wins