Talk Elections

Feel free to move this wherever else, but it's interesting for trends.

PENNSYLVANIA
November 2016: Dems +916,274
November 2017: Dems +808,918
November 2018: Dems +840,443
November 2019: Dems +813,876

Allegheny (Clinton +16.4, Casey +33.1)
November 2016: Dems +280,366
November 2017: Dems +277,908
November 2018: Dems +284,703
November 2019: Dems +291,626

Berks (Trump +9.9, Casey +3.8 )
November 2016: Dems +19,435
November 2017: Dems +15,185
November 2018: Dems +15,559
November 2019: Dems +13,437

Bucks (Clinton +0.8, Casey +14.0)
November 2016: Dems +9,382
November 2017: Dems +6,905
November 2018: Dems +10,361
November 2019: Dems +11,409

Centre (Clinton +2.4, Casey +17.2)
November 2016: Dems +3,502
November 2017: Dems +1,037
November 2018: Dems +2,383
November 2019: Dems +2,741

Chester (Clinton +9.4, Casey +20.2)
November 2016: Reps +18,468
November 2017: Reps +17,668
November 2018: Reps +11,300
November 2019: Reps +6,966

Dauphin (Clinton +2.9, Casey +11.4)
November 2016: Dems +10,067
November 2017: Dems +7,991
November 2018: Dems +9,786
November 2019: Dems +10,356

Delco (Clinton +22.3, Casey +31.4)
November 2016: Dems +17,569
November 2017: Dems +16,619
November 2018: Dems +26,637
November 2019: Dems +33,001

Erie (Trump +1.6, Casey +18.4)
November 2016: Dems +30,103
November 2017: Dems +29,223
November 2018: Dems +28,559
November 2019: Dems +27,679

Lackawanna (Clinton +3.5, Casey +23.2)
November 2016: Dems +48,493
November 2017: Dems +44,710
November 2018: Dems +44,357
November 2019: Dems +42,051

Lehigh (Clinton +4.7, Casey +16.4)
November 2016: Dems +35,122
November 2017: Dems +31,658
November 2018: Dems +33,718
November 2019: Dems +32,983

Lancaster (Trump +19.1, Barletta +8.4)
November 2016: Reps +66,193
November 2017: Reps +65,694
November 2018: Reps +62,936
November 2019: Reps +60,777

Luzerne (Trump +19.3, Barletta +8.2)
November 2016: Dems +33,939
November 2017: Dems +32,154
November 2018: Dems +30,022
November 2019: Dems +27,971

Montgomery (Clinton +21.3, Casey +31.9)
November 2016: Dems +56,510
November 2017: Dems +56,147
November 2018: Dems +67,225
November 2019: Dems +73,194

Philadelphia (Clinton +67.0, Casey +74.8 )
November 2016: Dems +727,534
November 2017: Dems +679,775
November 2018: Dems +699,390
November 2019: Dems +697,876

YES, PA is trending red in my opinion, and I do believe Trump will win it by about 100K votes in 2020.  However, I take these registration numbers with a grain of salt.  Arizona and Nevada have seen more Republicans register, yet studies do show that republicans change their registrations more often when they move when you are a year out from an election.

Isn't Pennsylvania one of those states where there are tons of conservadems that are registered D but vote R? Looking at the county numbers cited here that seems to be driving the change.

In counties like Luzerne, yeah, that's pretty much where it's headed.

What I thought was interesting though is that Dems are slowly leaking in these counties, but Reps are REALLY leaking in the suburban counties. Reallly shows the Trump-era shift.

Bit of an update... and this is not including Indies, just the difference between Registered Ds and Rs

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439

Not sure what happened in Allegheny since November, but interesting and not surprising that the leftward shift dramatically continues in places like Montgomery and Delaware, and Chester will finally be in the hands of Ds soon, after having an R+19,000 advantage in 2016.

Any reason why R gains in Lackawanna are so slow ? Especially when compared to luzerne ?

Interesting.

Where can one find this data?

Probably that Luzerne doesn't have a city comparable to Scranton

Our SOS, whoever that is (not a position you can run for in an election, apparently) does a good job at keeping the stats up to date each week-

https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/pages/votingelectionstatistics.aspx

Yeah, party registration is a strong trailing indicator.

Then why don’t more people on here consider Pennsylvania a tossup?

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848
May 2020: Dems +809,164

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000
May 2020: Dems +271,496

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154
May 2020: Dems +13,367

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462
May 2020: Dems +15,449

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200
May 2020: Dems +3,617

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505
May 2020: Reps +310

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193
May 2020: Dems +12,068

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092
May 2020: Dems +40,191

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241
May 2020: Dems +41,058

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857
May 2020: Dems +34,662

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742
May 2020: Reps +58,771

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843
May 2020: Dems +83,301

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439
May 2020: Dems +706,611

Interesting stats here - the suburbia growth continues. Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery all going Dem at a pretty fast pace, especially Chester, where Dems are about to overtake Reps for the first time.

For Allegheny county from Nov 2019 to Feb 2020,  I read that was due to a record keeping update of some sort, not actual changes in registration.   I know Philadelphia did something similar in 2018.

That's interesting but I find the population changes more interesting.  Clearly there are a lot of democrats in rural areas voting republican and a lot of republicans in the Philly suburbs voting democrat.  If you look at census population statistics, the areas that trended Democrat in 2016 are almost all growing in population while the areas that trended Republican in 2016 are almost all shrinking in population (since 2016).

Also I think I read somewhere that the decrease in Philly was some kind of error that has been corrected.

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848
May 2020: Dems +809,164
August 2021: Dems +616,962

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000
May 2020: Dems +271,496
August 2021: Dems +268,065

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154
May 2020: Dems +13,367
August 2021: Dems +5,511

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462
May 2020: Dems +15,449
August 2021: Dems +10,702

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200
May 2020: Dems +3,617
August 2021: Dems +1,803

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505
May 2020: Reps +310
August 2021: Dems +4,453

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193
May 2020: Dems +12,068
August 2021: Dems +12,458

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092
May 2020: Dems +40,191
August 2021: Dems +49,709

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241
May 2020: Dems +41,058
August 2021: Dems +37,022

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857
May 2020: Dems +34,662
August 2021: Dems +31,888

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742
May 2020: Reps +58,771
August 2021: Reps +64,069

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843
May 2020: Dems +83,301
August 2021: Dems +92,522

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439
May 2020: Dems +706,611
August 2021: Dems +687,816

It is interesting that from Nov 2017 to June 2020 the dems basically stopped the decline in their voter registration lead, went from +809k in Nov 2017 to +802k in June 2020, they even increased their lead in 2018 in the run-up to the mid terms, they resumed declining after June 2020 though.

Wtf happened this year? That’s a huge drop off in democrat support

In the leadup to the 2020 election Republicans registered more voters relative to democrats and after every election there is a post election purge where voters that no longer are in the state are removed, this affected more democrats than republicans.

Registration is a lagging indicator and PA has trended Republican in every Presidential election for the past decade and thus registration (which was always overly skewed Democratic in PA) is now slowly normalizing (in a very polarized environment) to where the state is relative to the national picture, a tilt Republican swing state. This is a world of difference from the mid 2000s when it was a D+4.

Trump halted the progress on this underlying dynamic, but with him no longer President, it has resumed. Lancaster is a good place to find a lot of people turned off by Trump but naturally Republican and the Republican rebound in that county could be evidence of that. Bucks even more so.

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

I stand by my post elsewhere. Democrats do not need to worry about Pennsylvania nearly as much as they need to worry about Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is much less elastic than the other two, most of its rural counties are already 80% R, and the population-growth trends are very clear - the areas moving left are growing, the areas moving right are shrinking.

It has voted to the right of the nation in the last two President elections, Trended Republican in the last four and even trended slightly Republican with Scranton Joe as the Democratic nominee. Sounds tilt R to me.

Only Fulton and Bedford are 80% R.


I have been following PA politics for 20 years almost. I am old enough to remember this same exact line being stated to say that PA would get more Democratic than it was in the 2000s, just like the same argument was used regarding Colombus, OH and its metro to say Ohio would become more Democratic. Since then, both states have become considerably more Republican, regardless of the fact that said X factor proved true (those areas are growing and have become more Democratic).

Also, just last year, many of you guys said it would be impossible for PA to trend Republican with Biden on the ticket, and yet it did. Republicans also won statewide 2 of the 3 row offices for the first time (in a Presidential year which never happened before) and won the statewide house ballot by about the same that Biden did.

Yeah, registration is just normalizing at this point. Though I think you'll still find more D support than R at the end of the day, so I think Ds will always have a lead.

And it looks like the voter purge really hit Ds hard too, moreso than Rs.

I think Yankee is saying Tilt R in terms of PVI/partisan lean relative to the nation, not necessarily how it votes in an election. Saying PA would tilt R if the NPV was tied is definitely a fair take, and it's probably the accurate one, too.

Of course this is all happening in isolation. If California starts (albeit more slowly) goes the way of Texas, it might return Pennsylvania to zero PVI. At the rate Pennsylvania is going, it probably will be plurality Republican by the late 2020's.

I wonder how national voter party identification is going. At this point, it looks like Pennsylvania could vote to the right of Arizona and Georgia.

Several of us have said for years that GA and AZ could end to the left of the rust belt and PA as well.

Another factor that people need to consider about PA is that it is not just Philly that drives Democrats early lead on election night.  A lot of the counties have heavily Democratic towns or cities in them. The example I often cite is Crawford in 2010, how it reported with Sestak in the lead or tied at first and many thought this meant Toomey was doomed, but when it finished, it was 61% Republican.

These towns and cities are collapsing in population, ex mining and manufacturing areas. So while the population of these rural counties is declining, it is not necessarily hitting the Republicans as hard as it might seem at first glance, but in many cases it is the Democrats taking the hit. We also have one of many more examples as to Philly basically plateauing for the Democrats and likewise with Pittsburgh.

This is worse than a simple party registration switch, because the implication is that these people are moving out of the state and is thus a true loss for the Democrats rather than a Demosaur finally catching up to reality (though that certainly is a factor in these places too).



Yes, also the fact that it is R PVI is going to make it so that Republicans continually work to win it because it is easier to flip PA than it is to flip VA/CO and eventually will be likewise for GA/AZ. Pointing to WI and MI also doesn't mean much in this context, because WI and MI on their own cannot get to 270 without GA. This means Republicans not spooking naturally Republican voters in the Pittsburgh suburbs, Lancaster and Bucks county into voting Democratic.

An update to this thread, as of the 4th of October which is the last date for which we have voter registration data from PA, the democratic lead is down 607,642, over 2 months from the start of August to the start of October, the lead has fallen by around 9,000. It is likely that in the next few months the democratic lead will go below 600,000 as ancestral democrats continue to pass away.

This is all a nothing burger.  9,000 in a state as large as PA?  When we all know it's just Dems who haven't voted Dem for years anyways. 

I think we need to stop looking at states based on how they vote relative to the nation.  The "nation" if it were a state would be tilt or lean D.  Dems consistently win the national popular vote by 3-5 points and that's without drumming up huge turnout in states like NY and CA. 

The reality is that SEPA is the fastest growing part of the state and even the GOP exurban counties around that area, which are seeing heavy growth, are only gaining because of Dem transplants.  PA will probably end up like the Dem version of FL, a "swing" state that mostly favors Dems and stabilizes as a Dem +3 state.