Talk Elections

I've allowed people to change their vote.

Also post generic predictions/inane ramblings here.

Conservative Majority

Going with Conservatives as the largest party, but not a majority. Among other potential reasons:

A. The potential losses in Scotland against the SNP, and against the Lib Dems in certain areas of England seem almost a foregone conclusion (the Scottish Conservatives in particular seem utterly doomed), forcing the Conservatives to make ten to twenty gains alone from Labour just to break even.

B. I'm not yet convinced they can actually get enough voters who have never voted Conservative to do so in the seats they want to capture from Labour. That could change.

C. If the Brexit Party manages to hold the line (which is not exactly impossible) they would also deny the Conservatives capturing a number of seats, and/or cause losses in other ones.

D. Rampant tactical voting is likely to take place on some crucial seats, which again might result in losses which are difficult to compensate elsewhere.

E. Depending on how many of the surviving Conservative rebels stand against as some variation of "independent Conservative" (that specific name is illegal, I think), their personal vote - even if limited - might make the difference in losing an additional handful of seats.

That's not to say they don't have other factors that will benefit them (the Remainer vote will be far more divided, Corbyn is more unpopular and more tarnished, there is some sort of momentum to deliver Brexit once and for all, etc.), but I'd be surprised if they managed to held onto the current polling position and secure an actual majority. If anything I suspect Labour will recover a bit - not as nearly as much as in 2017, but enough to avoid a disaster - and the result will be a hung parliament.

Quote from the other thread.

I think the Conservatives will, probably, still be the largest party, but they’ll lose seats overall. I’m very hesitant to say whether Labour will gain or lose seats, but I think that once the dust settles they may be in a position to form a minority government with support from the SNP and the Lib Dems, on the proviso that a rerun of the referendum is called.

Something like this.

I wonder if the general election could more or less duplicate the current deadlock.

If the Conservatives are the largest party but have no obvious allies to give them a majority, the natural outcome would be for the leader of the second largest party to form a government.

Would Jeremy Corbyn be any more acceptable as the Prime Minister in a new hung Parliament than in the last one? We might easily have the same problem that Corbyn will not receive majority support but that he will block anyone else from forming a government of national unity.

Johnson could then decline to resign, as is the constitutional right of a Prime Minister who does not have a clear majority against him. He could meet Parliament and then it might be that Lib Dem etc. abstentions prevent a motion of no confidence being passed, but without the Lib Dems being willing to support any Johnson legislation the new Parliament would be as much if not more paralyzed than its predecessor.

Hopefully this sequence of events can be avoided, but it would involve MPs changing their behaviour in the new term.

Corbyn *may* finally step aside in those circumstances, doubtless citing his age and that if such a result occurred he would have "defied expectations" twice in a row and thus be in a stronger position to hand over to a younger but still left wing successor.

Predicting Conservatives largest party with small net seat losses overall for both the Conservatives and Labour (compared to 2017; possibly neutral or slight gains compared to current standings), although overall a significant number of seats will change hands in many directions.

If only for posterity, I'll stick my neck out and predict Labour as the largest party, but by just a few seats - 290 for Labour vs 280 for the Tories, let's say. It should be enough to combine with the SNP and Lib Dems to form a viable government for long enough to hold a referendum, but once that's done there will probably be another election within a year.

Tories are the largest party, but Labour will lead a remainer minority government. The Lib Dems will hate to give Corbyn the nod, but seeing him forced to choke down a second referend Milliband-style will make it worth it for them.

Maybe King Boris can rope PM Scheer and President-re-elect Trump into a UK-North American trade deal after Brexit, eh?

Corbyn would cope in that scenario, I suspect.

The extent of both his support for and interest in Brexit is rather exaggerated by some.

I know anything can happen and all that but I really struggle to see ANY scenario where the Conservatives don’t win a majority and Labour doesn’t go down to the tune of the ‘97 Tories.

For political junkies which we all are, the most interesting scenario would probably be Labour being the largest party in a hung parliament and the Brexit party having enough seats to put them in power if they worked out an arrangement. And the Tories having a number of seats that puts them frustratingly JUST short in an arrangement with the Brexit party and DUP.

I mean, considering the Tories could very well lose quite a few London (+ suburban) seats & some South-West seats to the Lib Dems while gaining some significant vote share in the North that's still not enough (especially with the Brexit Party on 5-10%) to unseat Labour in most cases, it's very easy to see more-than-plausible scenarios with the Tories on less than 326.

Yeah I don't think that a Tory msjority is any better for them than 50/50 for them. The generic poll numbers are certainly not telling the whole and rapidly developing story.

Conservatives around 300, Labour around 200, Lib Dems around 75, SNP around 50. Nothing for the Brexit Party. Plaid and the Greens hold their current seats. The real "fun" begins on December 13.

LibDems around 75 seems pretty high.

It does, doesn't it?

Especially with a 300/200 Con/Lab result. If the Lib Dems have won 75 seats (and those seats are anything like the seats they are targeting) they will have pulled far more heavily from currently held Tory seats than Labour ones. If the LD's get 75 I'd expect the Tories to be somewhere around 225 and Lab somewhere around 275. The SNP would probably be under 40 as well.

As I said on my posts before, amongst the 3 nations whose elections I pay attention too (US, Canada, UK) this seems like the most predictable election in a very very long time. Why on earth Labour has allowed Corbyn to continue to be leader is BEYOND me. And frankly Farage and Tice should be ashamed of themselves for chickening our in the way they are (at least appear to be)




Approximate official prediction


Conservative 345
Labour  180
Liberal Democrats  45
SNP 50
BrExit 0

Thanks. My mental math was off. Let's adjust the Lib Dems down a little bit and the two big parties up a bit, then.


No, it really, really doesn't.

Almost nothing about this election is predictable at this stage? We have very little idea of what it will look like in any sense; other than that it won't look like the last one.

Not even sure we can count on that. Soul crushing though it may be to contemplate, a near identical seat split (315/260/35/15/other) is very much possible.

Something similar to the current allotment is certainly possible, but the geographic distribution (which I suspect is what he was referring to) would be far different. For example, I would be shocked even at this stage if the Tories don't lose St. Albans and Watford, cracking their stranglehold of Herfordshire, adding on the previously cracked Surrey.

No idea what I am doing and will defo come back to this, but:

CONSERVATIVE - 337 seats
LABOUR - 208 seats
LIB DEMS - 30 seats
SNP - 50 seats
GREENS - 1 seat
BREXIT - 1 seat
PLAID - 4 seats

Actually that's true, yes. Quite plausible - as plausible as anything else at this stage. Of course the distribution of votes would be different, but...

Quite, the only thing I'm sure about is that the result will come as a 'big surprise' to most people but it's anyone's guess as to which form this could take. The last 'predictable' national election I can remember is the 2010 general election and that's probably only with the benefit of hindsight.

Just in case this hasn't been posted yet, here's a fun tool for this kind of thing:

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=prediction (http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=prediction)

If, like me, you're not a supporter of the Conservative party you should probably to avoid the 'nowcast' if you've been having a good day until this point. If you are though, I'd also caution that the resulting pleasure you may experience potentially makes it NSFW content.

2010, where many if not most people forecast an outright Tory majority - not to mention the wild swings in public opinion during the campaign?

I think you must have meant 2005 ;)

At the time I was thoroughly convinced (despite everything that was going on in the run-up) that there would be a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party, and that David Cameron would somehow become PM. However, I admit that was really vague and not really a 'prediction' as such ;)

But yes, 2005 was definitely more predictable (at the national but not constituency level).

To be honest whenever people ask me for a prediction I tend to go with 'hung Parliament' partly to hedge my bets and partly to be annoying and express my displeasure for political predictions.

In keeping with that spirit, I've gone with 'Conservatives largest party' in this poll for now.

I think there will be heavy geographic sorting between the Labour North and Lib Dem south, and the Tory seat share is being overestimated. I would be unsurprised if the Lib Dems clear 40% of the vote in London, and take a majority of seats there. If I had to guess what partiament would be, I'd go with:

Conservative: 257
Labour: 236
Lib Dem: 82
SNP: 50
DUP: 10
Sinn Fein: 7
Plaid Cymru: 4
Brexit: 3
Green: 1

In terms of the percentage vote, I'd speculate:
Conservative: 31.4%
Labour: 29.3%
Lib Dem: 22.6%
Brexit: 8.7%
SNP: 3.4%
...


This would pretty clearly lead to a Lab-Lib-SNP Coalition, which is probably the best thing Britain can hope for.

Their "nowcast" is literally the worst election predictiom I have ever seen. It's like Tory Brexiteer electoral cosplay, and bears virtually no relationship with reality.

An overlooked factor is a possible 3 seat pickup by SDLP in NI, in
- Foyle (very likely)
- South Down (likely, if 3 point swing from Sinn Féin)
- Belfast South (possible, if 2 point swing swing from DUP)

Numbers here (http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/sdlp).

Contingent of Sinn Féin & DUP losing ground after their high water mark of 2017, these 3 seats would be very pro-Remain and necessitate a higher Tory threshhold.

Don't forget Belfast North. Sinn Féin has gained ground in that seat every election for 2 decades.

Also, seeing Nigel Dodds lose his seat would be Greek drama levels of irony.

I can't see the SDLP regaining South Down, but Foyle looks a possibility and South Belfast looks likely to be gained by either SDLP or Alliance.

On the other hand, Fermanagh South Tyrone is a possibility for a UUP gain, and whatever about the new UUP leader's position on Brexit, the local candidate may have other ideas.

Northern Ireland is going to be a proper mess this year...but when is it not? Here's an analysis from a northern Irishman from another forum:

Oryxslayer, could you tell me where you found that interesting quote?

Glad I'm not alone in thinking NI could play a big role in 2019, like it did in 2017.
Isn't it curious that such a small, educated, wind-swept corner of the world, with virtually no natural resources or immigration, would elicit such dark passions and hatred?

SDLP winning in South Down makes would change the margin of power in Westminster by only 1, while SDLP flipping Belfast South would change it by 2.
It's only a mess in the sense that political parties reflect more than transactional choices in NI, they become part of our identity.

I'm considering registering to vote in the North, as I have family in Foyle. Not sure it's worth the (considerable) effort of claiming residence.

General election thread on the alternate history forum. (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/2019-uk-general-election-thread.477497/page-25#post-19709890)

He's also provided a subsequent analysis on some of the more minors who are standing which can be found here. (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/2019-uk-general-election-thread.477497/page-30#post-19715624)

If you cannot see the links, then it's because it's on one of the boards blocked to those without an account, I forget which ones have that lock.

Also in a unrelated note, the DUP are standing down in Fermanagh and S Tyrone for the UUP candidate.

My ideal result would be Labour doing bad enough that Corbyn gets “sacked” as leader, but the Conservatives don’t get a majority or do poor enough where a General election needs to be called long before 2024.

Second to that, for the pure theater of it all I would love to see Nigel Farage win a seat. Imagine him in parliament? That would be unreal to watch

These things will likely only go together if the LibDems win more seats than at time since the 1920s.

CON largest party but unable to form a government.

Election Calculus sets out that the Poll of Polls as of 10/25/19 gives the Torres a majority of 76 with 363 seats, Labour with 186 seats, the Liberal Dems with 31, Scottish National Party with 48, the Greens with 1, PlaidC with 3, DUP with 9, Sinn Fein with 7.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

As of of now I will take that as my prediction.

The Political Betting Blog sets out ten reasons why it is not likely that Corbyn will recover as he did in
2017.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/02/labours-fan-club-is-far-too-confident-10-reasons-why-2019-may-not-be-2017-part-2/

1.   Labour is polling is really badly.
2.   Corbyn is record – breakingly unpopular with a net satisfaction rating of -60% In 2017 he was at -35.  Johnson is at +2%
3.   Johnson is not very popular but still has strong lead
4.   The campaign is likely be more dominated by Brexit.  Labour’s position on Brexit question is badly defined and easily mocked
5.   The Tory campaign cannot be as bad as in 2017.  That campaign is widely regarded as the worst in history.
6.   Corbyn is not as good a campaigner as he is given credit for.
7.   The Liberal Democrats will not be talking about sex for 4 weeks
8.   Scottish and Welsh Labour are doing worse than in 2017
9.   Labour is more internally divided than at any point under Corbyn
10.   Labour’s front bench is very weak

At the time of the 2017 election there still was about 2 more years to consider Brexit.  We  have presently completed  2 and ½ years of intense Brexit discussion. The public is tired.  This hung Parliament has created a terrible impression. The public wants the issue settled.  It does not want more discussion.  The EU has made it clear it does not want further discussion.  The public does not want another hung Parliament.

The Tories are the only answer to solve Brexit.
A
In addition Johnson has looked strong in telling Farage to get lost with his demand for that the Brexit Party be given 150 constituencies to run in free of Conservative opposition. The same rejection showed strength in dealing with Trump.

To avoid the turmoil you have described I predict large enough numbers of  Brexiteers will vote vote Conservative so a majority party will complete Brexit.  In addition a fair number of Conservative Remainers will vote Conservative out of fear of Corbyn.

You believe that with current polls showing the three leader satisfaction rates of Johnson +2, Swinson
-12, Farage -22, and Corbyn -60.  That +2 for Johnson is the best for any leader since 2017 that

1.   the Conservatives will lose 51 seats
2.   Labour only loses 7
3.   the Liberal Democrats gain 61

I think you are just picking numbers out of the air. 

You dream of the Liberal Democrats skyrocketing to 40% in London.   Election Calculus is predicting the following numbers for London

                     2019                                2017         
      Conservatives 29.5%                   33.1%
      Labour  34.2%                               54.5%
      Lib Dem 21.2%                                8.8%
      Brexit/UKIP 7.8%                             1.3%
      Green       5.5%.                                1.8%
      Other.       1.8%                                   0.5%
 
Do you also release 40.7% of voting Londoners voted for Brexit

Where are the Liberal Democrats to get the extra 18.8%.
 
80% of Conservatives are satisfied with Johnson.  9% are dissatisfied.  11% do not know

Labour is 46% - 49%  - 5% concerning Corbyn

47% of all voters think Johnson has done a good job handling Brexit.  45% think he has done a bad job.
84% of Conservatives approved.

Corbyn’s rating for handling Brexit is 11% good and 79% bad.  Labour voters are divided on Corbyn 37% good and 52% bad.

40% of the vote for the Liberal Dems is a real leap requiring the absolute collapse of the Labour Party.  I wish that would happen.  It would end the the threat of Labour to Britain.   But unfortunately it is not going to happen. 

I think it best for Britain to leave an EU


     


                                                     

That's the problem when you don't have a clue.
You think the problem will go away when the UK leaves, because you like simple solutions. But it will have only begun.

The UK leaving sets the scene for a decade of renegociations of all the existing treaties under other forms.
Trade agreements? The WTO? Northern Irish border? Gibraltar? Border at Calais?
It's taken 3 YEARS and 2 PMs to deal with ONE piece of legislation (article 50), and that's still not done.

These problems will still be around for a generation, since only EU stability removed the political incentive for politicians to pick at the scabs of history.

The bare-bones, substance-free intellectual dumpster fire of today's nationalistic populism has absolutely nothing to do with the future, much less building a brighter one. It is mindless flexing--emoting, really--of patriotic ambition. But because it's bare-bones and substance-free it's the scrawny guy flexing absurdly for the snickering girls. And that's Britain today. Parading around as a kind of powerhouse that is being dragged down by Europe when the opposite is so obviously true--without the EU the UK is not only not strong and not a more hopeful place, but it's not even the UK anymore. It's just England, the skinny pale chav who believes that FINALLY we'll Make Essex Great Again without having word-slushing Poles ruining the place. And maybe we'll even win the World Cup.

Meanwhile the world looks on amd snickers. Well done, Brexiteers. Well done.

You look foolish to so openly mix predictions and desires.

Were six weeks out from the  poll and the campaigns have not even started. If you are making a prediction now, some chunk of any prediction will be based on hope and desire.

The thread is a prediction thread.

I think  the Political Betting Blog reference gives a reasonable basis for the hope.

I think Farage  could blow things up.  It is duty of his party to cqontrol him.

I'm not arguing with you, I'm just pointing out that any prediction this far out has very little data regarding the situation in 6 weeks. So there will always be a bit of hope. For comparisons sake, the Spanish election is in one week, so polls are fairly accurate.

Like for example, farage today announced he won't stand for a seat. That throws a wrench in a prediction based purely on yesterday's data, no matter what that prediction is.

I've made some constituency-by-constituency predictions I'd like to post but (by their nature) they are a bit long and could be construed as spammy - basically I wanted to make sure beforehand there were no objections (I shall construe silence as a lack of objection).

That kind of thing has always been encouraged here. Fire away.

I'll begin with a few caveats

- This is obviously very early and a lot can change in the next five weeks.
- At least one seat I rate Safe will change hands. That I guarantee.
- I've tried to keep this absolutely objective and I welcome people pointing out when I'm failing in that.
- Colours in the text will go off the 2017 result not the current MP (apart from Brecon & Radnorshire when I get to it)

We'll start with London:
Barking - Safe Labour
Battersea - Tossup. Obviously a narrow win for Labour last time, but given its a very remainy area the Lib Dems will give it a go, and there are a lot of rather wealthy bits for the Tories to mine. Genuine tossup, whether two or three-way (probably two). Lab hold gun to my head.
Beckenham - Safe Tory. Yawn
Bermondsey & Old Southwark - Safe Labour. Hughes was the only reason it wasn't Labour for that long and when the bloom came off that rose, it reverted to form.
Bethnal Green & Bow - Safe Labour
Bexleyheath and Crayford - Safe Tory
Brent Central - Safe Labour. lol Remember when the Lib Dems held this? Doubt they'll bother but you never know. Only question here is the margin though. And even then I doubt it'll be much of a question.
Brent North - Safe Labour.
Brentford & Isleworth - Safe Labour.
Bromley & Chislehurst - Safe Tory. Boooooring
Camberwell & Peckham - Safe Labour. The Lady Who's Fault All Of This Is will win by miles, unless she retires, in which case whichever Corbynite loon the local party drags up will win by miles instead.
Carshalton & Wallington - Likely Lib Dem. Hardly prime Lib Dem territory anymore but difficult to see them losing this when they're doubling their vote share nationwide.
Chelsea & Fulham - Lean Tory. Where the Lib Dem vote comes from/to what extent might end up being key here but I think the Tories will probably hold.
Chingford & Woodford Green - Lean Tory. IDS will get the fight of his life but I think he'll persevere. Would love to be wrong.
Chipping Barnet - Tossup. Labour's challenge here will be to keep losses to the Boys in Yellow to a minimum and to hope the Tories losses to them are high enough. I'd bet on a Tory hold but could go either way.
Cities of London & Westminster - Lean Tory. Why did Chuka move here? Bizarre going from literally the most remain seat in the country where he had a decent personal vote to a seat where the Lib Dems have been irrelevant for yonks. Still, obviously they think something is going on here but I'm not sure if I buy it. Tory hold. Probably.
Croydon Central - Lean Labour. Vote split danger for Labour here. Probably have enough cushion in the majority though. Probably.
Croydon North - Safe Labour
Croydon South - Safe Tory
Dagenham & Rainham - Lean Tory. Oh dear. Cruddas has to hope that Leavers see Labour's position on Brexit the same way Remainers do, otherwise he's in a world of sh!t. Then again, this was the kind of area the Tories actually did improve on in 2017 and they couldn't get the job done then, so... I don't know. Tory gain I think but it'll be close.
Dulwich & West Norwood - Safe Labour. Oh look, that's familiar. Our esteemed local Corbyn Mouthpiece will be re-elected comfortably I think, even if it will be a lot closer than it was last time, above a different party.
Ealing Central & Acton - Safe Labour. The margin will be interesting though.
Ealing North - Safe Labour. yawn.
Ealing Southall - And that theme is carried on...
East Ham - And on...
Edmonton - And on....
Eltham - Likely Labour. Majority isn't enormous and the vote split issue comes up again, but I think Labour hold.
Enfield North - Safe Labour. Ryan calling it quits ended any remaining lingering doubts about the result here.
Enfield Southgate - Tossup. Vote split you say? Well, as with all of the seats, its difficult to say what'll happen, but remember that the Lib Dems will probably take a bit from the Tories as well in a seat like this. Tilts Labour hold but far from certain.
Erith and Thamesmead - Safe Labour. Most likely a yawn
Feltham and Heston - See above
Finchley & Golders Green - Tossup. Hmm. The problem with seats like this is that it is basically impossible to ascertain by how much the Lib Dems will surge and who they'll take votes from, compounded by a Lib Dem MP being parachuted so clearly they think something is up here. So I'm genuinely not sure about this. I guess Tory hold because I have to say something but who knows.
Greenwich & Woolwich - Safe Labour
Hackney North & Stoke Newington - Safe Labour. lol. You-Know-Who wins easily even if it isn't the humungous margin from last time.
Hackney South & Shoreditch - Safe Labour. A real large amount of middle class hippies who are a key target group for the Lib Dems in this seat... but also a lot of deprived natural Labour territory as well. So Safe Labour but margin could be interesting.
Hammersmith - Safe Labour.
Hampstead & Kilburn - Likely Labour. This was a three-way marginal in 2010, right? Will be interesting to see if that's replicated and to what extent. This isn't exactly the kind of area where Corbynism or Lexit will go down all that well, so Siddiq therefore wins on her own merits with a reduced margin. But she will almost certainly win.
Harrow East - Tossup. Errr, no clue. Students? I guess I'll say Tory hold because I have to say something
Harrow West - Safe Labour. The guy who played the lead role in Blake's 7 wins easily
Hayes & Harlington - Safe Labour. The safest of the Labour 'Big Four'. Obviously they're all safe, but in a universe where Labour get  decimated in a way they won't in this one, McDonnell is the last to fall. Maybe not a coincidence he's the only one with anything approaching a brain cell.
Hendon - Tossup. See whole thing about who knows how well the Lib Dems will do/where their vote comes from. So unknown. Tory hold if I have to say something. Which I do.
Holborn & St Pancras - Safe Labour. Spineless Underling The Great wins by miles, even if not as many miles as it was last time.
Hornchurch & Upminster - Safe Tory. splat.
Hornsey & Wood Green - Likely Labour. Didn't the Lib Dems do well here locally even before the surge? Can imagine they'll give it a go but that's a hell of a majority to overturn.
Ilford North - Likely Labour. Streeting by a reduced but still fairly solid margin
Ilford South - Likely Labour. Oh lord. If the Lib Dems stand aside for Gapes he might have a shot but I'll admit I'm erring on the side of caution (and hope) here and Labour are basically guaranteed to hold. If they don't then it goes straight to Safe Labour.
Islington North - Safe Labour. Obviously. But if there is a God or deity of any kind reading this - please. PLEASE. PLEASE?!?!
Islington South & Finsbury - Safe Labour. Unlike North, this seat is much more middle class and hippieish. The Lib Dems may well give this a shot and Thornberry's attempts to separate herself from the rest of the Labour frontbench over Brexit has had mixed success. Having said that, Labour hold and it won't be close, but the margin could be interesting. But probably won't honestly.
Kensington - Tossup. Oh dear. With a majority that small normally the Tories would be favoured to retake... but in a very remainy place like this where the Lib Dem vote comes from might be key. And then there's the issue of the Yellows throwing in an incumbent MP so something must be up, right? Very difficult to gauge. Tory gain if there's a gun to my head.
Kingston & Surbiton - Safe Lib Dem
Lewisham Deptford - Safe Labour. The most remainy of the three Lewisham seats by some distance interestingly. Not that it matters.
Lewisham East - Safe Labour. Lib Dems may look at their by-election result and go 'oooh' but they shouldn't.
Lewisham West & Penge - Safe Labour. sleepy
Leyton & Wanstead - Safe Labour. very sleepy
Mitcham & Morden - Safe Labour. very, very sleepy
Old Bexley & Sidcup - Safe Tory. zzzzZzzzzz
Orpington - Safe Tory. zzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzZzzzz (although Tory candidate antics might be quite funny)
Poplar & Limehouse - Safe Labour. zzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzz
Putney - Tossup. Can safely label this one under f!ck knows for a variety of reasons. Might call it a Labour gain for bants, but seriously, f!ck knows.
Richmond Park - Safe Lib Dem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas
Romford - lib dem gain i reckon imo tbqh imo (Safe Tory for the sarcasm-deficient)
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner - Safe Tory. Boringly Tory seat will produce a boringly Tory result
Streatham - Safe Labour. Had Chuka stood his ground this could have been interesting. He didn't, and therefore it won't be. It is, of course, the most remain seat in the country which the Lib Dems will use to make leeway but I can't see them actually winning. Think a result more similar to 2010 than 2017 though. Labour... gain? hold? Labour win by any rate
Sutton & Cheam - Likely Tory. Leave, but only marginally, so maybe the Lib Dems could give it a go? The 2018 locals were a bit sh!t for them in an area that's always delivered for them, but that was pre-surge. Almost certainly a Tory hold but a glimmer of an upset exists.
Tooting - Safe Labour. Khan't see any way the former Mayor's seat flips. Ha I amuse even myself.
Tottenham - Safe Labour. verrrryyyy booooring (although this is my sleeper pick for the largest majority in London given Lammy probably won't struggle with remainers like a lot of his colleagues may)
Twickenham - Safe Lib Dem. Obviously.
Uxbridge & South Ruislip - Likely Tory. That's a much smaller majority than I remember it being but Boris is safer than he looks. None of the other parties quite have a winning coalition here - too rich for Labour, too Brexity for the Lib Dems, not quite insane enough  for The Traitor's vehicle. So Boris wins, even if it's a bit embarassing.
Vauxhall - Safe Labour. Still can't believe Hoey managed to win so easily last time. What the f!ck was everyone thinking. Anyway, I'd go as far to say that the Lib Dems might even have been favoured here had the incumbent stood for re-election. But she retired, and therefore Labour will hold easily.
Walthamstow - Safe Labour. zzzz
West Ham - Safe Labour. zzzzz
Westminster North - Safe Labour
Wimbledon - Lean Tory. Tory hold I think, but will be close either way and could produce a bizarre result. Couldn't everywhere.

I'll throw my two cents  onto the  pile because London, despite her vote splits, seems to be rather easy to call seats for this area in particular. I agree on mostly everything, with one exception and one necessary mention. I general it 'feels' like both with polling subsamples and with the London breakdown that the Tory vote is going to hold up better in the leave'y bits but their vote in what I will call 'the slice' drops thanks to Brexit. There  is a reason why all the remainer tories and new LDs are fleeing to there, its the region that best suits their electorate.

From here on out I will refer to a GIS snip from a 'brexit-weighted regional swing model' I ran last week. The colors shown do not reflect my opinions.

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Most of the tossups that you mentioned are tossups here with flips like Enfield Southgate on the map being rather marginal. So lets just ignore that part and go to may main point: 'the slice.' When looking at london one needs to be inquisitive where exactly is the LD surge coming from and most likely to crest. The two obvious places to eliminate are all the visible minority labour seats and the brexity tory seats. We should therefore  be looking at the  white parts of London  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London#/media/File:White_Greater_London_2011_census.png)- which have historically correlated well with Tory voting. It should come at no surprise that 'the slice' is very white. These places are all leafy-wealthy-semi-suburbs/neighborhoods  that contrast oh so starkly with the poverty and high rents of Labours side of london. Then you have the city itself which is a financial district on top of the high wealth of Westminster and the rest of 'the slice.' While I hate the population distortions, the map below nicely highlights how the wealthy parts of London stand out with the rest of the city.

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Oh, and these areas all went hard for Remain. It seems clear that 'the slice' is where the LD surge is most likely to manifest - even if the LDs end up falling back to 10% in the polls. Now, I don't agree with everything my swing model says goes orange, I made the  model just out of curiosity after all. However I think the following seats are all within the potential splash zone as Tory voters become LDs at a near 1:1 ratio: Battersea, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Kensington, Putney, Richmond Park, and Wimbledon. Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Hammersmith, Sutton and Cheam, and Vauxhall all have low potential to join the list, but the LDs 'all-or-nothing' style of resource investment probably leave them by the wayside. Theres a reason who Chuka moved out of the minority constituencies and into the rich remainer strip. Its also why Esher and Walton can't be seriously written off either, since it's just the same region only extending beyond the greater city limits. Honestly, these constituencies remind me a lot of the old GOP slices into West Houston and North Dallas: leafy, wealthy, semi-suburbs/neighborhoods who now are all represented by democrats.

However, the LDs are also eating into labour in London, so lets get to the necessary mention: Barnet. The income and racial map of London shows that the Enfield/Barnet region is mostly where I feel these votes will be coming from - along with 2017 labour votes within 'the slice.' You had every Barnet seat as a tossup, and I agree, because this is Corbyn's great thorn in his side. The region like every other in London should be becoming more  accustomed to not voting for Tories: it voted for Remain, and has a sizable labour presence initially. The problem of course is the Jewish vote. Corbyn's labour's unpopularity is most acute with this group, who has a sizable pull in Barnet. There is a reason why Labour slid backwards here in the last local elections. A community that is steadfast in the 'never-corbyn' camp and not satisfied with going back to blue is an opening for the LDs. Considering there is a good number of wealthy whites in the region initially who will be flipping for the LDs regardless of the Jewish vote, one can see why the LDs have put the three seats on their target list. Of course we won't know how this region feels unless there s a polls specifically of the council district, and swing models won't pick up the LDs pouring resources into the region. So tossups all around are appropriate.

South East:

Aldershot - Safe Tory. Yawn. (This might end up being a theme of this one btw)
Arundel & South Downs - As above.
Ashford - As above
Aylesbury - As above
Banbury - As above
Basingstoke - As above
Beaconsfield - Safe Tory. Grieve is standing again as an indpendent endorsed by the Lib Dems but this is a fanatically Tory area that was only marginally Remain in the first place.
Bexhill & Battle - See Basingstoke, et. al.
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton - As above
Bracknell - Safe Tory, especially now that Lee has buggered off. Was definitely the right move, this was never going to be winnable.
Brighton, Kemptown - Safe Labour, mainly because this is about as unfriendly territory for the Tories as you can get at the moment and the Lib Dems and the Greens will probably give it a miss (the former has better targets nationwide and the latter will want to throw everything at protecting Lucas).
Brighton, Pavillion - Safe Green. Having said what I did above, Lucas will win and it won't be close.
Buckingham - Safe Tory. Hey, these voters actually get to participate in the democratic process for once!
Canterbury - Tossup. How much the Lib Dems improve by and where that vote comes from will be key here. Given Labour's core in Canterbury itself which is probably far from bad Lib Dem territory, I'd wager on a Tory gain but Labour obviously aren't out.
Chatham & Aylesford - See Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, et. al.
Chesham & Amersham - As above
Chichester - As above
Crawley - Lean Tory. In a such a Leaver seat the Lib Dems will be a non-entity, meaning this will be a straight Tory-Labour fight, one I'm inclined to give to the incumbent. And I might be being a bit too generous to Labour. Maybe.
Dartford - See Chichester, et. al. (This used to be Key Marginal Seat Dartford if you can believe it)
Dover - Likely Tory. See Crawley but a larger majority and more heavily for Leave.
East Hampshire - See Dartford, et. al.
East Surrey - As above
Eastbourne - Tossup. Lloyd rejoined the Lib Dems when the election was called and he's standing again. How he plans to reconcile this seat's leaviness with the national party I have no idea but if anyone can do it its him. Tilts Tory gain for now though.
Eastleigh - Safe Tory. Fool's gold for the Lib Dems.
Epsom & Ewell - See East Surrey, et. al.
Esher & Walton - Safe Tory. Also fool's gold for the Lib Dems. Its Esher for f!cks sake.
Fareham - See Epsom & Ewell, et. al.
Faversham & Mid Kent - As above
Folkestone & Hythe - As above
Gillingham & Rainham - As above
Gosport - As above
Gravesham - As above
Guildford - Likely Tory. Very Remainy and the Lib Dems will use their good local performance as an excuse to give it a go but I highly doubt that will translate into success. Stranger things have happened though.
Hastings & Rye - Tossup. Another genuine Tory-Labour contest but one I think the Tories will just win. Will be close though.
Havant - See Gravesham, et. al.
Henley - As above
Horsham - As above
Hove - Safe Labour. Seems fairly self-explanatory to me.
Isle of Wight - See Horsham, et. al.
Lewes - Likely Tory. Did vote Remain but not by miles. The former MP didn't stand last time though so the close result wasn't artificial like in some other seats like this but LD performance locally hasn't been great. Will be interesting but I think the Tories will be the last ones standing here.
Maidenhead - Safe Tory. Genuinely surprised May is running for re-election here. Maybe she's planning to be the female Ted Heath. Now that would be a fitting end to her story. Obviously she wins.
Maidstone & The Weald - Safe Tory. I'd be fascinated to know how Maidstone itself votes without all the rural bits tagged on, but obviously that wouldn't be big enough for its own seat. Tories therefore win in perpituity.
Meon Valley - See Isle of Wight, et. al.
Mid Sussex - As above
Milton Keynes North - Tossup. Another of those Blue-Red seats that I expect to be Blue at the end but could go either way.
Milton Keynes South - As above.
Mole Valley - See Mid Sussex, et. al.
New Forest East - As above
New Forest West - As above
Newbury - As above
North East Hampshire - As above
North Thanet - As above
North West Hampshire - As above
Oxford East - Safe Labour. Not much to say about. Lib Dems will make second I think but certainly won't be close.
Oxford West & Abingdon - Likely Lib Dem. Almost certainly an easy win for Moran.
Portsmouth North - Safe Tory. And the award for MP with the most upper class name goes to...
Portsmouth South - Tossup. A Labour-Tory marginal last time but the seat's LD history might make them give it a go and complicate things. Tory gain if forced to choose but I honestly don't know.
Reading East - Lean Labour. Very Remainy but its difficult to say if the LDs will improve here and who they'll take votes from. This is much friendlier territory for Labour than a lot of the other seats they took in 2017 so i think they're favoured for now.
Reading West - Lean Tory. Leavey seat where I think the Tories will be able to come out on top.
Reigate - See North West Hampshire, et. al.
Rochester & Strood - Safe Tory. Remember the by-election? Fun times they were. Not really though.
Romsey & Southampton North - Safe Tory. Margin might be a bit interesting but no doubt about the victor.
Runnymede & Weybridge - See Reigate, et. al.
Sevenoaks - As above
Sittingbourne & Sheppey - As above
Slough - Safe Labour. No issues for them here I think. It's still Slough after all.
South Thanet - Likely Tory. Brexit vote split is the path to Labour victory here and I don't think that will happen. Can't rule it out categorically though.
South West Surrey - Safe Tory. Rhyming Slang wins by miles. The fight for second place might be interesting.
Southampton Itchen - Tossup. Very, VERY close last time and in a leavey seat the LDs won't be relevant, which will lead to a Tory-Labour fight. I think the Tories will come out on top but neither result would surprise.
Southampton Test - Safe Labour. Little to say here.
Spelthorne - See Sittingbourne & Sheppey, et. al.
Surrey Heath - As above
Tonbridge & Malling - As above
Tunbridge Wells - As above
Wantage - As above
Wealden - As above
Winchester - Tossup. Very Remainy seat where the Lib Dems did relatively well in 2017. They have a lot going for them here but the majority is very big. Lib Dem gain if forced to guess but it will probably be close.
Windsor - See Wealden, et. al.
Witney - As above
Woking - As above
Wokingham - Lean Tory. Were you surprised out to find this seat voted Remain? And it wasn't close either? I certainly was. Anyway, as much as I'd love Redwood to go down, I doubt it'll happen. Just making the old fart actually have to campaign will be victory enough though. Lib Dems did make quite a lot of gains in May though, so I don't think he's entirely safe.
Worthing East & Shoreham - Lean Tory. Was surprisingly close in 2017 but I don't think that will be repeated. I'll be cautious and say its only Lean though.
Worthing West - Safe Tory. Was rather less close last time.
Wycombe - See Woking, et. al.

Oh yeah it's good news Kate Hoey is going, really bizarre to have a hard Brexiteer Labour MP in a 78% Remain seat. If she had run I'd probably have rotted for the LibDems here.

No longer going to make a  big comment because once you leave london it gets harder for a yank to analyze seat-by-seat results. So I make one comment: there are a lot of places in the SE and SW where the LD floor is going to be high, but not high enough to pass the Tories. If the LDs have a moment, or surge (which is a big if) look for it in Surrey and neighboring seats to the north, Devon/Cornwall, and Hertfordshire. May could very well end up with a Portillo moment on her hands if this very unlikely situation occurs. Similarly, if the Tories retain their big lead or have a Leave surge, keep an eye on North Wales, the Non-Leeds York region in general, the Tees Valley seats, and maybe even a Sunderland seat, which would be fun come election night. Labour lacks a surge zone unless they take the lead: their hope is to just push back and hold what was won last time.

South West:

Bath - Safe Lib Dem. I hope I don't have to explain why.
Bournemouth East - Likely Tory. Relatively close last time but I doubt that'll come to anything.
Bournemouth West - Likely Tory. As above.
Bridgwater & Somerset West - Safe Tory. zzzzzz.
Bristol East - Safe Labour. Margin might be interesting though.
Bristol North West - Likely Labour. A seat that has passed the Tories by I think. Could be interesting if Labour collapse but otherwise I think they'll be fine here.
Bristol South  - Safe Labour. Margin probably won't be interesting either.
Bristol West - Safe Labour. Second most Remain seat in the country so the Lib Dems will make a push for second, but won't get any further.
Camborne & Redruth - Lean Tory. If Labour can get tactical voting on their side they might be in with a chance. But whether they can do that with the Lib Dem improvement and Corbyn's endless uselesness is very much an open question.
Central Devon - See Bridgwater & Somerset West
Cheltenham - Lean Lib Dem gain. Very Remainy seat where the Lib Dems had a rare good result in 2017. If they aren't winning this they aren't doing well nationwide.
Christchurch - See Central Devon, et. al.
Devizes - As above
East Devon - Safe Tory. That independent that made it relatively close last time is giving it another go but as Swire is throwing in the towel I don't think she'll get any traction.
Exeter - Safe Labour. Has Bradshaw been reselected yet? I certainly hope he has.
Filton & Bradley Stoke - Lean Tory. Closer than I remember. I think the Tories will be favoured here but where an improved LD share comes from might be key.
Forest of Dean - See Devizes, et. al.
Gloucester - Likely Tory. I'm fairly certain the Tories will be the last ones standing here.
Kingswood - See Forest of Dean, et. al.
Mid Dorset & North Poole - As above
Newton Abbot - As above
North Cornwall - Safe Tory. Only close last time because the old MP ran again, which he isn't this time.
North Devon - Safe Tory. As above, pretty much to the word, even though the Lib Dems performed decently at the locals.
North Dorset - See Newton Abbot, et. al.
North East Somerset - Safe Tory. He's inevitable. Don't kid yourself otherwise.
North Somerset - Safe Tory, depressingly so. F!cking Liam f!cking Fox.
North Swindon - Likely Tory. Labour will be focusing on the other seat I don't think this will matter much.
North Wiltshire - See North Dorset, et. al.
Plymouth Moor View - Likely Tory. But basically Safe frankly. Labour will be focusing on holding P,S&D and this was a very Leavey seat (which you'll notice I'm not really using as a justification for somewhere being averse to Labour, but sometimes that is the case).
Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport - Lean Labour. Large majority last time and the hliarity of Ann "Cleverdicks" Widdecome standing for The Traitor's vehicle might pose a vote split problem for the Tories. Not safe for Corbyn's Happy Brigade though.
Poole - See North Wiltshire, et. al.
Salisbury - As above
Somerton & Frome - As above
South Dorset - As above
South East Cornwall - As above
South Swindon - Lean Tory. Whoever wins this will be the largest party I think. So Tory on that basis. But a Labour win would not surprise.
South West Devon - See South East Cornwall, et. al.
South West Wiltshire - As above
St Austell & Newquay - Likely Tory. If one of Labour and the Lib Dems can consolidate the other's vote then maybe this could flip but I highly doubt it.
St Ives - Lean Tory. Andrew George running again is the only reason this is competitive - there's quite a bit of friendly territory for the Lib Dems here (the seat's namesake especially) but overall its just not a natural seat for them anymore.
Stroud - Tossup. David Drew is the one person who could defy gravity for Labour here and the Tories haven't exactly chosen a stellar candidate but in the end I think the national picture will determine this one. Tilts Tory gain on that basis.
Taunton Deane - See South West Wiltshire, et. al.
Tewkesbury - As above
The Cotswolds - As above
Thornbury & Yate - As above
Tiverton & Honiton - As above
Torbay - As above
Totnes - Lean Tory. This is a Leaver area but with a bit of tactical voting Woollaston might not be done for yet. Still clearly the underdog though but local results were decent for the Lib Dems. Will be interesting.
Truro & Falmouth - Lean Tory. If Labour can consolidate some tactical voting then this might be an opportunity, but that's a dubious assertion and quite a few students will be home by this point.
Wells - Lean Tory. Similar to St Ives in that it was only close last time because of the old MP running again, who is running once more this time. Not natural territory but if they're having a good night nationwide, that plus Munt's personal vote might get them over the line, and some decent local results might give them hope. Probably not though.
West Devon & Torridge - See Torbay, et. al.
West Dorset - As above
Weston-supre-Mare - As above
Yeovil - As above

I wonder how somebody in the 90's would react to you saying that Anne Widdecombe is on the same ticket as the Revolutionary Communist Party's Claire Fox.

I wonder if Christopher Chode will suffer a greater than expected swing against him after his parliamentary antics (although he is obviously safe - I think he received the best Tory vote in the UK last election)

I'm more bullish on you with the Libs down SW - I think Andrew George is favoured this time in St Ives; for one example - he can easily squeeze the fairly large 2017 Labour vote and the old Community Liberal tradition is clearly not dead (as I believed it was before the last locals). I also think Cornwall is one of those areas that voted Brexit, but are not defined by that as much as other places, if that makes sense.

I'm probably being overly cautious on St Ives, George is definitely in with a good shot. I based my on rating on the fact that it is Brexity and St Ives/Penzance can't outvote the rest of the seat on their own, plus tactical voting could be unpredictable. Obviously my mind would be far from blown if he won.

Elsewhere in Cornwall I'm not so sure, especially as Labour did eclipse them in a few seats in 2017. Some of the margins and second places will be interesting but other than St Ives I don't think there's any opportunities down there.

Eastern:

Basildon & Billericay - Safe Tory. Yawn.
Bedford - Tossup. Fairly standard Blue-Red marginal. Tory gain if forced to choose.
Braintree - See Basildon & Billericay
Brentwood & Ongar - As above
Broadland - As above
Broxbourne - As above
Bury St Edmunds - As above
Cambridge - Lean Labour. Very Remainy with a lot of prime Lib Dem territory against a result that was probably inflated in 2017 due to that election's unique circumstances. Local results have been decent but not spectacular for the Lib Dems. Zeichner is favoured to hold but things might get interesting if the Yellows have a better than expected night.
Castle Point - See Bury St Edmunds, et. al.
Central Suffolk & Ipswich North - As above
Chelmsford - Safe Tory. Didn't the LDs do well locally here? Obviously Tory hold but the margin might be interesting.
Clacton - See Central Suffolk & Ipswich North, et. al.
Colchester - As above
Epping Forest - As above
Great Yarmouth - As above
Harlow - As above
Harwich & North Essex - As above
Hemel Hempstead - Safe Tory. Margin will be indicative of the national picture though.
Hertford & Stortford - See Harwich & North Essex, et. al.
Hertsmere - As above
Hitchin & Harpenden - As above
Huntingdon - As above
Ipswich - Tossup. Same as Bedford, right down to a Tory gain if I was forced to choose.
Luton North - Safe Labour
Luton South - Likely Labour. The Lib Dems standing down for Shuker might given him the tiniest, winsiest glimmers of hope, but I'm frankly being very generous to him here.
Maldon - See Huntingdon, et. al.
Mid Bedfordshire - As above
Mid Norfolk - As above
North East Bedfordshire - As above
North East Cambridgeshire - As above
North Norfolk - Likely Tory gain. Without Lamb this is practically gone. Sorry. (Having said that the local elections results weren't bad at all so maybe there's a glimmer of hope...)
North West Cambridgeshire - See NE Cambridgeshire, et. al.
North West Norfolk - As above
Norwich North - Tossup. Another standard Blue-Red marginal. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Norwich South - Safe Labour. Margin may be interesting but probably not.
Peterborough - Tossup. The Brexit vote has declined since the by-election which was the main reason Labour won. Tory gain if forced to choose.
Rayleigh & Wickford - See NW Norfolk, et. al.
Rochford & Southend East - Lean Tory. That's being cautious though, despite it being close last time, I think the Tories will win.
Saffron Walden - See Rayleigh & Wickford, et. al.
South Basildon & East Thurrock - As above
South Cambridgeshire - Likely Tory. Allen retiring probably doesn't inspire much confidence for the Lib Dems, despite an impressive local performance.
South East Cambridgeshire - Safe Tory. Margin will interest.
South Norfolk - See South Basildon & East Thurrock, et. al.
South Suffolk - As above
South West Bedfordshire - As above
South West Hertfordshire - As above
South West Norfolk - As above
Southend West - As above
St Albans - Lean Lib Dem gain. A genuinely impresive performance in 2017, a very Remainy seat and a distinctly unimpressive incumbent lead to a fairly easy conclusion. Not quite game set and match for the Tories but if the Lib Dems aren't winning this, then its likely they aren't doing so well nationwide.
Stevenage - Lean Tory. Marginal I think will go the Tories way but difficult to say with TOO much confidence.
Suffolk Coastal - See Southend West, et. al.
Thurrock - Safe Tory. Might be one of the seats where The Traitor's vehicle might genuinely contest but I'm not sure they'll get far.
Watford - Tossup. Blue-Red marginal last time but the Lib Dems have a lot of local strength they might finally be able to call upon. It is a Leave seat but only marginally. Will be interesting. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Waveney - See Suffolk Coastal, et. al.
Welywn Hatfield - Likely Tory
West Suffolk - See Waveney, et. al.
Witham - As above

I'm not sure why you are sleeping on Colchester. That model I referenced has the seat going Orange marginally (so tossup) and a separate model a ran two weeks ago to test the oppositions baseline has the seat flipping to someone not-tory. The Lib Dems retain strength locally, held the seat before the coalition, and the seat is only 51-49 for leave, so the oranges still have a healthy base to pull from for their potential plurality. Its also one  of the  many seats in the greater SW/London region that saw a near 1:1 Lib-Dem to labour transfer last cycle since they were the viable remainer ticket. Maybe there is something candidate-wise that just pure statistics cannot pick up.

Also the Cambridge seats are going just be...weird. We had a constituency poll (obvious MOE implied) a while back that showed Cambirdge itself was a marginal Labour lead, and today we have one showing SE Cambridgeshire is a 10% Tory lead over the Libs. I wouldn't therefore be surprised if the  more favorable S Cambridgeshire is a close race between team orange and team blue.

Wales:

Aberavon - Safe Labour. And There Shan't Be Much Rejoicing.
Aberconwy - Tossup. Tory hold if forced to choose. Guto Bebb is a very silly name isn't it.
Alyn & Deeside - Lean Labour. If they're losing this it's a bad night for them, which is far from impossible but not super likely.
Arfon - Tossup. Plaid hold if forced to choose. Will definitely be close and Labour aren't going to let them run away with it.
Blaenau Gwent - Safe Labour. Reasoning: It's the sodding valleys.
Brecon & Radnoshire - Lean Lib Dem. The incumbent is probably favoured for the same reasons she won in the first place. Not safe though.
Bridgend - Lean Labour. See Alyn & Deeside. Interesting that its a Remain voting seat in the area thats a key marginal. Can't imagine why that might be.
Caerphilly - See Blaenau Gwent
Cardiff Central - Safe Labour. Of course, this is Remain voting and not a marginal. Margin and the fight for second place might be interesting but the winner won't.
Cardiff North - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose. I imagine this will be a straightfoward two-way marginal but it is fairly Remainy so a hypothetical Lib Dem improvement/where those votes come from might be key. Or might not.
Cardiff South & Penarth - Safe Labour
Cardiff West - Safe Labour.
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr - Lean Plaid. The majority should hold but if Labour are having a better than expected night then its not out of the question they take this.
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire - Lean Tory. Just looks a bit like that doesn't it. Sometimes reasoning doesn't need to be complex.
Ceredigion - Tossup. Remainy with a history of Liberals but neither the incumbent nor his party have done much to disgrace themselves. Will depend how badly the Labour vote disintegrates and where it goes. Lib Dem gain if forced to choose. (Ignoring the LD-Plaid alliance shenanigans for now)
Clwyd South - Lean Labour. Basically see Alyn & Deeside and Bridgend.
Clwyd West - Lean Tory. See Carmarthen West. Bit of a pattern establishing itself, isn't it?
Cynon Valley - See Caerphilly, et. al.
Delyn - Lean Labour.
Dwyfor Meirionnydd - Safe Plaid. Probably because none of the other parties have anyone that can pronounce the constituency's name.
Gower - Tossup. The incumbent may be made to Gower away but I think she'll hold on balance. Will probably be close.
Islwyn - See Cynon Valley, et. al.
Llanelli - Safe Labour.
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney - See Islwyn, et. al.
Monmouth - Safe Tory
Montgomeryshire - Safe Tory. (if only Lembit was running, I could do with some comic relief this election)
Neath - Safe Labour
Newport East - Safe Labour
Newport West - Safe Labour
Ogmore - Safe Labour
Pontypridd - See Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, et. al.
Preseli Pembrokeshire - Tossup. I imagine if the incumbent loses he'll be a bit Crabby about it. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Rhondda - See Pontypridd, et. al.
Swansea East - Safe Labour
Swansea West - Safe Labour
Torfaen - Safe Labour
Vale of Clwyd - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose.
Vale of Glamorgan - Lean Tory
Wrexham - Tossup. Tory gain if forced to choose.
Ynys Mon - Lean Labour. At least I think so. This is a weird-arse seat.

West Midlands:

Aldridge-Brownhills - Safe Tory. Is this the only UK constituency with a Canadian style dash in the title?
Birmingham Edgbaston - Lean Labour. The Tories have a high floor here but the endless 'close but no cigar' stuff here must be beginning to get up their noses as a bit. I suspect it will end up that way again unless Corbyn really self-destructs (and of course that remains a very distinct possibility)
Birmingham Erdington - Likely Labour
Birmingham Hall Green - Safe Labour. Btw I've yet to encounter anyone on the interwebs who actually likes Godsiff but I guess that's a good indication of how opinions on the internet don't decide elections. Take note, any Yanks reading.
Birmingham Hodge Hill - Safe Labour. Unlikely they'll make a Hodge podge of this ho ho ho
Birmingham Ladywood - Safe Labour. Obviously.
Birmingham Northfield - Lean Labour. Not a huge majority but they should be okay.
Birmingham Perry Barr - Safe Labour
Birmingham Selly Oak - Safe Labour
Birmingham Yardley - Safe Labour. Lib Dem vote might actually fall here contrary to what will likely happen nationwide (Hemming was the only reason it somewhat held up last time.) And for those who dislike Phillips, you might want to look away from this one.
Bromsgrove - Safe Tory
Burton - Safe Tory
Cannock Chase - Safe Tory
Coventry North East - Safe Labour
Coventry North West - Lean Labour. Majority might be deceptive but I couldn't say for sure.
Coventry South - Lean Labour. As above.
Dudley North - Lean Tory gain. Think that Austin's luck will probably run out this time if he stands again. It doesn't look like he will.
Dudley South - Safe Tory
Halesowen & Rowley Regis - Lean Tory
Hereford & South Herefordshire - Safe Tory. I have complete faith in the Lib Dems here... to hold onto their deposit. (In all seriousness, the margin might be a bit interesting but it certainly won't be anything resembling close)
Kenilworth & Southam - Safe Tory
Lichfield - Safe Tory
Ludlow - Safe Tory
Meriden - Safe Tory. Nick Timothy was almost selected here. The irony would have been too much.
Mid Worcestershire - Safe Tory
Newcastle-under-Lyme - Lean Tory gain. Pretty certain Labour's luck will run out here too.
North Herefordshire - Safe Tory
North Shropshire - Safe Tory. yaaaaaaaaaaaawn
North Warwickshire - Likely Tory.
Nuneaton - Lean Tory. Frankly that feels generous to Labour though
Redditch - Safe Tory
Rugby - Safe Tory
Shrewsbury & Atcham - Safe Tory
Solihull - Safe Tory. Can't believe they ever didn't hold this.
South Staffordshire - Safe Tory
Stafford - Safe Tory. God, we have so many of these stupid safe seats. What a terrible electoral system.
Staffordshire Moorlands - Safe Tory
Stoke-on-Trent Central - Lean Labour. The least likely to flip of the Stoke seats but still in danger. I think they're just about favoured.
Stoke-on-Trent North - Tossup. Tilts Labour though.
Stoke-on-Trent South - Lean Tory. Would probably be Likely if it wasn't for the priveleged London Tory boy MP but maybe that won't matter now he's the incumbent. I'm not sure this is a very Corbyn-receptive area. Or not. Drat, torn between my hatred of Corbyn and my hatred of priveleged Tory boys.
Stone - Safe Tory
Stourbridge - Safe Tory
Stratford-on-Avon - Safe Tory. These words are beginning to lose all meaning I've typed them so many times
Sutton Coldfield - Safe Tory. But of course.
Tamworth - Safe Tory. Anyone know again good card tricks?
Telford - Tossup. Tilts Tory though.
The Wrekin - Safe Tory. I came in like a Wrekin ball...
Walsall North - Likely Tory. Yeahhh...
Walsall South - Lean Labour
Warley - Safe Labour
Warwick & Leamington - Tossup. Labour if forced to choose.
West Bromwich East - Likely Labour. Glad that Watson was reselected, just because it annoys the Corbynites. Doesn't mean I'd vote for him if I was WBE or that I like him. I wouldn't and I don't.
West Bromwich West - Lean Labour
West Worcestershire - Safe Tory
Wolverhampton North East - Lean Labour
Wolverhampton South East - Safe Labour
Wolverhampton South West - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain.
Worcester - Lean Tory. Labour should have stuck with the woman from London who had a screw or nine loose. They wouldn't have won the seat but it would have been absolutely hilarious.
Wyre Forest - Safe Tory. Wyre do I think this? Well, I'll leave that to you to work out.

Is the dynamic in Montgomeryshire, which you have as Safe Tory, really that different from Brecon & Radnorshire, which you have as Lean LD, (aside from the obvious by-election in the latter)? The incumbent is standing down in the former, and both seats had similar margins in 2017, so just wondering.

Great analysis and commentary in this thread from all....reminds me of why I joined this site in the first place.

This 100%. I’m tempted to shamelessly copy it and do my own analysis although I’m much more pessimistic- looking forward to Yorkshire/Scotland predictions.

Lib Dem incumbent in B&R, Montgomeryshire voted Leave by a fairly wide margin while it was a narrow one in B&R, Lib Dem activists in west Wales will be sent straight to Ceredigion while B&R is the Lib Dems only seat of interest in East/South Wales, and while the raw vote margin was very similar in 2017, the percentage majority was much higher. If the Lib Dems really reestablish themselves Montgomeryshire might come back into play in an election or two, but I don't see it as competitive this time around.

East Midlands (calling some of these seats East Midlands is really quite a stretch but hey):

Amber Valley - Safe Tory
Ashfield - Lean Tory gain. The incumbent calling it quits probably helps Labour but it was a very narrow result last time in an area that is getting uglier for them.
Bassetlaw - Tossup. Not quite as ugly as Ashfield for Labour but getting there. The incumbent calling it quits doesn't help them here as it does there. Tilts Tory gain.
Bolsover - Safe Labour as long as Skinner runs. When he invevitably leaves Parliament in the only way he was ever going to, it'll probably be a pretty easy Tory gain.
Boston & Skengess - Safe Tory
Bosworth - Safe Tory
Broxtowe - Tossup. Usual caveat about whether the Lib Dems will stand aside for Soubry (looks like they are for now) but in the end I think this will be between the two main parties (unfortunately). Tilts Tory hold.
Charnwood - Safe Tory
Chesterfield - Safe Labour
Corby - Lean Tory. Winnable for Labour if they're having a decent night though
Daventry - Safe Tory
Derby North - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain. Labour are definitely better off without the incumbent (a good pick for the most vile MP in the Commons right now, although Fox, Chope and Blackford run him fairly close) but I still think the Tories will win. Not a done deal of course.
Derby South - Safe Labour. Beckett will be re-elected by a solid but not spectacular margin in the same way she has in every election since 2005.
Derbyshire Dales - Safe Tory
Erewash - Lean Tory. Not much else to say really
Gainsborough - Safe Tory
Gedling - Lean Labour. This might be one of those 'seats that seem safe-ish' but then are lost in a disappointing night and I expect it will be lost if there's a really poor showing for Labour.
Grantham & Stamford - Safe Tory. For some reason whenever I see the surname Boles, I think to The Two Ronnies' Phantom Raspberry Blower of Old London Town. Or maybe its because I watched it the other week. God, these safe seats are bloody boring aren't they.
Harborough - Safe Tory. Yaaaaaawn
High Peak - Tossup. One of the more surprising 2017 gains I think. Labour will hold if they can keep vote bleeding to a minimum. Tories will gain if they can keep vote bleeding to a minimum. If they both succeed or fail at that we're entering god knows territory. Probably tilts Tory gain .
Kettering - Safe Tory. And back to boring.
Leicester East - Safe Labour. Farewell, sweet prince. Although Vaz wasn't sweet, or much of a prince thinking about it... so, just Farewell I suppose.
Leicester South - Safe Labour
Leicester West - Safe Labour
Lincoln - Tossup. See High Peak except delete the surprising gain bit (obviously all Labour gains were surprising in 2017 but you get what I mean...). Tilts Tory gain if you couldn't be bothered to read up.
Loughborough - Lean Tory. I think the majority might be a bit deceptive(ly small). Not a done deal though.
Louth & Horncastle - Safe Tory
Mansfield - Lean Tory. Again not really a great area for Labour these days. The seat was somewhat lost in 2017 because Meale was a crap incumbent but 6,000 vote swings don't happen just because of lazy MPs.
Mid Derbyshire - Safe Tory
Newark - Safe Tory
North East Debyshire - Lean Tory. See Mansfield but delete the crap incumbent bit. Although Engel wasn't exactly an impressive incumbent either.
North West Leicestershire - Safe Tory
Northampton North - Tossup. Tilts Tory hold.
Northampton South - As above
Nottingham East - Safe Labour. Unlike some of the other defectors, Leslie is crap and has absolutely no chance.
Nottingham North - Safe Labour
Nottingham South - Safe Labour
Rushcliffe - Likely Tory. Alas, poor Clarkey. We knew thee well. Incidentally, assuming Skinner wins, that means he'll become Father of the House. A man who hates all the parliamentary procedures and whatnot. As if we needed any more hilarity.
Rutland & Melton - Safe Tory
Sherwood - Lean Tory. I can't be bothered to justify these anymore. It's a semi-marginal Tory seat with a decent but not spectacular majority. Got it?
Sleaford & North Hykeham - Safe Tory
South Derbyshire - Safe Tory
South Holland and the Deepings - Safe Tory
South Leicestershire - Safe Tory
South Northamptonshire - Safe Tory
Wellingborough - Safe Tory

Zadrozny is running (as an independent) in Ashfield, by the way. I think that should be Lean Independent.

I'm unconvinced he'll get anywhere if I'm honest. Independent candidate making a splash at first then flaming out very quickly is a well trodden story.

His local party just won 30/35 seats on the Ashfield Council in May, and he nearly won in 2010 as a Lib Dem. I don't think Ashfield can be discussed at least without mentioning the possibility of him winning. Seems likelier than the Tories winning as the Ashfield Independents have basically mopped up the Tory vote locally.

I guess we'll see but local strength doesn't always translate into parliamentary strength, especially for Indies and fourth parties

Damn. The Corbynite celebrations tonight will dampen my mood.

No change to rating for the seat and I'd be very glad to see him gone if it wasn't for the minor fact his replacement as Deputy Leader is guaranteed to be much, much worse.

()

Here's DaWN's predictions so far, mapped on the capital blank map afleitch provided in the discussion thread.

Colors are safe/likely/lean/tossup-advantage.
Pardon the misalignment of the NAT color spheres with the rest; I added them later.

This is really cool! (And also really appreciated as there is zero chance I would have the time or patience to do something like it) Thanks!

Yorkshire & The Humber:

Barnsley Central - Safe Labour
Barnsley East - Safe Labour
Batley & Spen - Lean Labour. The size of the majority last time was probably somewhat inflated by by-election unwind but there's likely enough cushion in it to keep it red for now.
Beverley & Holderness - Safe Tory
Bradford East - Safe Labour
Bradford South - Likely Labour
Bradford West - Safe Labour
Brigg and Goole - Safe Tory. Safe seats are so dull.
Calder Valley - Tossup. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Cleethorpes - Safe Tory
Colne Valley - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain. Fairly bog standard marginal gained in 2017 that will be a good barometer.
Dewsbury - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose but I do expect it to be close.
Don Valley - Lean Labour
Doncaster Central - Safe Labour
Doncaster North - Safe Labour. Miliband wins by miles and that is a good thing.
East Yorkshire - Safe Tory
Elmet and Rothwell - Safe Tory
Great Grimsby - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain but the incumbent could still come out Onn top.
Halifax - Tossup. Definitely tilts Labour but I think the majority last time may have been deceptive.
Haltemprice & Howden - Safe Tory. Davis wins by miles and that is not a good thing.
Harrogate & Knaresborough - Safe Tory. Margin might be a bit interesting though. Might not. Won't be close.
Hemsworth - Safe Labour
Huddersfield- Safe Labour
Keighley - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain.
Kingston-upon-Hull East - Safe Labour
Kingston-upon-Hull North - Safe Labour
Kingston-upon-Hull West & Hessle - Likely Labour
Leeds Central - Safe Labour. This incumbent's relevancy has been Benn and gone.
Leeds East - Safe Labour. The incumbent will be the next leader of the Labour party, mark my words
Leeds North East - Safe Labour
Leeds North West - Lean Labour. Very Remainy suburban seat but unlike in Sheffield Hallam, the incumbent has been low-profile  and inoffensive, and this is a less friendly seat for the Lib Dems. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems won it though.
Leeds West - Safe Labour
Morley and Outwood - Lean Tory. It could be lost but frankly in an area like this, that was very strong for Leave, I think the Tory majority will go up. Not safe though.
Normanton, Pontecraft & Castleford - Safe Labour
Penistone & Stockbridge - Tossup. Simple Blue-Red marginal, Tory gain if forced to choose.
Pudsey - Tossup. Tory hold if forced to choose.
Richmond - Safe Tory. and begin william hague impression in 3, 2, 1...
Rother Valley - Tossup. Does Tilt Labour, mainly because of vote split issues for the Tories, but this could very easily fall.
Rotherham - Safe Labour
Scarborough & Whitby - Lean Tory. That might be generous to Labour though. It is difficult to say if the 2017 result was an aberration or not but I'm inclined to say yes. Funny how this would be probably be fanatically Tory if it were 200 miles further south.
Sc u nthorpe - Tossup. Labour if forced to choose. Atlas censors it if I don't put the gaps in, which is just hilarious.
Selby & Ainsty - Safe Tory
Sheffield Central - Safe Labour. The fight for second place will be the interesting one.
Sheffield South East - Safe Labour
Sheffield, Brightside & Hillsborough - Safe Labour
Sheffield, Hallam - Likely Lib Dem gain, for reasons that should be perfectly obvious. Tempted to call this fool's gold for Labour but that would probably be tempting fate a bit too much.
Sheffield, Heeley - Safe Labour
Shipley - Likely Tory. Unfortunately.
Skipton & Ripon - Safe Tory
Thirsk & Malton - Safe Tory
Wakefield - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose. The Tories will eventually stop cocking it up here though. Could well  be this time.
Wentworth & Dearne - Safe Labour
York Central - Safe Labour
York Outer - Safe Tory

fwiw Leeds North West was held in 2015 purely because of Greg Mullholland and the very very efficient machine he had- which was overwhelmed by the student vote & Tim Farron being useless. 

You had to edit the "Sc" constituency, but not the "P" one?

Sc**nthorpe

EDIT: Wow.

Ah, Atlas. Where about six or seven obvious trolls who destroy the quality of conversation are happily tolerated but you can't say the name of a prominent English town.

Anyway, moving on.

North West (another stupid region. Nantwich and Carlisle for instance have so little in common its extraordinary):

Altrincham & Sale West - Likely Tory. Very Remainy and with some Lib Dem local success but the parachuted Lib Dem MP made a bit of a fool of herself the other day for complaining about not getting her severance package if she loses in her new seat. Now, I don't think this cock-up by itself is going to change anything (literally nobody will care or remember it even happened by election day) but it doesn't exactly show confidence does it?
Ashton-under-Lyne - Safe Labour
Barrow and Furness - Tossup. Woodcock joined The Independents? I don't remember that happening. Probably because it doesn't matter and wouldn't matter even if he hadn't retired. Anyway, Red-Blue marginal. Tilts Tory gain and it's very possible I'm being generous to Labour. F!ck knows why.
Birkenhead - Safe Labour. Strong enough for Labour that a strong Field showing (very unlikely anyway) won't make the tiniest bit of difference.
Blackburn - Safe Labour
Blackley & Broughton - Safe Labour
Blackpool North & Cleveleys - Lean Tory. A strong lean though.
Blackpool South - Lean Labour. Not a hugely strong lean though.
Bolton North East - Lean Labour
Bolton South East - Safe Labour
Bolton West - Tossup. Tilt Tory hold
Bootle - Safe Labour
Burnley - Safe Labour. Apparently Gordon Birtwistle is going for it again on a pro-Brexit platform? As a Lib Dem? Okey doke. He might make second place. He won't win.
Bury North - Tossup. Tilt Labour hold.
Bury South - Tossup. Tilt Labour hold. This is compounded by the incumbent restanding as an independent. Now obviously he'll come nowhere near to winning and holding his deposit will be a victory for him... but it could become a vote split issue, particularly if there's a Lib Dem surge beyond expectations (not hugely likely because of Idiot Remainers Voting Labour but you never really know). It all leads to a competitive race I feel, but one Labour are just about favoured in.
Carlisle - Lean Tory
Cheadle - Tossup. It will come down to how badly the Labour vote disintegrates and where it goes, but this isn't really a very Boris area is it. Lib Dems also have done well locally but the Tories should not be counted out. Tilts Lib Dem gain.
Chorley - Safe Speaker gain. This system really needs reform. Disenranchising 75,000 people for parliamentary procedure is frankly unacceptable in my eyes.
City of Chester - Likely Labour. This is probably as good as safe though.
Congleton - Safe Labour. Not Fiona Bruce the newsreader btw
Copeland - Lean Tory for basically the same reason it was won and held in the first place. Obviously a Labour win wouldn't amaze me.
Crewe & Nantwich - Tossup. Tory gain if forced to choose
Denton & Reddish - Safe Labour
Eddisbury - Safe Tory. Despite the incumbent changing parties and restanding.
Ellesmere Port & Neston - Safe Labour
Fylde - Safe Tory. I wonder how many parties will Fylde a candidate here
Garston & Halewood - Safe Labour
Halton - Safe Labour
Hazel Groze - Lean Tory. Bizarre result in 2017 in a Leave seat but I guess Manchester suburbia isn't the worst place for the Lib Dems, plus recent local results have been encouraging. Probably won't result in a win but certainly not impossible.
Heywood & Middleton - Likely Labour. In hindsight this by-election was a good predictor of how Brexit would turn out and we all probably should have seen it. Although, even if we had all seen it, it would have required a Labour leader who could be bothered to campaign. I'm still 7/10 for putting him on top of a firework btw.
Hyndburn - Lean Labour
Knowsley - Safe Labour
Lancashire West - Safe Labour
Lancaster & Fleetwood - Lean Labour. Will Lancaster outvote the rest of the seat? I'll say yes but not a done deal.
Leigh - Safe Labour
Liverpool Riverside - Safe Labour
Liverpool Walton - lean tory because it voted leave (Safe Labour for the sarcasm-deficient)
Liverpool Wavertree - Safe Labour
Liverpool West Derby - Safe Labour
Macclesfield - Likely Tory. Holy crap that was way closer than I remembered. Anyway, Tories will almost certainly win for a variety of reasons.
Makerfield - Safe Labour
Manchester Central - Safe Labour. Margin/LD performance might be interesting but no doubt about the result.
Manchester Gorton - Safe Labour
Manchester Withington - Safe Labour. Same caveat as Central though
Morecambe & Lunesdale - Lean Tory
Oldham East & Saddleworth - Safe Labour
Oldham West & Royton - Safe Labour
Pendle - Lean Tory
Penrith & The Border - Safe Tory
Preston - Safe Labour
Ribble Valley - Safe Tory
Rochdale - Safe Labour
Rossendale & Darwen - Lean Tory
Salford & Eccles - Safe Labour
Sefton Central - Safe Labour
South Ribble - Likely Tory
Southport - Tossup. Tilt Tory hold. Lib Dems will probably fall back a bit here. How that affects the Blue/Red vote I'm not sure.
St Helens North - Safe Labour
St Helens South & Whiston - Safe Labour
Stalybridge & Hyde - Likely Labour
Stockport - Safe Labour
Stretford & Urmston - Safe Labour
Tatton - Safe Tory. Unfortunately.
Wallasey - Safe Labour
Warrington North - Safe Labour
Warrington South - Tossup. Tilt Tory gain
Weaver Vale - Tossup. Tilt Labour hold
Westmorland and Lonsdale - Likely Lib Dem. Farron got a scare last time but this time round he's kept a much lower profile and has probably been spending time in the constituency given that scare. Combine this with the national vote increase and he'll probably be fine.
Wigan - Safe Labour
Wirral South - Likely Labour
Wirral West - Lean Labour
Workington - Tossup. Labour hold if forced to choose. Will probably be very close unless one of the two main parties outperforms expectations/Brexit do better than expected.
Worsley & Eccles South - Likely Labour
Wyre & Preston North - Safe Tory. This one won't come down to the Wyre
Wythenshaw & Sale East - Safe Labour

Really nice effort at a breakdown, but sometimes I wonder whether you take the Brexit vote into enough account.

That's a joke, right?
Sc**nthorpe.
EDIT: Jeepers it's not. Is this a private joke by Dave?

My predictions assume a tactical squeeze to the two main parties - you'll notice outside of London and a few select constituencies that are a. very remainy, b. likely to be close or c. both, I'm not taking the LDs into account much either. I'm aware I could be wrong on this but if Brexit looks out of contention in a lot of seats (which they will) I think the votes will go back to whichever of the two main parties the individual voter was already more attached to. Again - could be wrong.

So does anyone think there is any chance at all that Brexit gets even a single seat? And if so .. where? In a Labour/Leave that has never voted Conservative? In a ultra right wing seat that was a strong Conservative/Leave seat or in a random spot where the vote will be split so many different ways they could sneak across the line?

What’s ironic is Farage says he decided not to run so he could campaign around the UK and in turn make it easier for Brexit to get more seats. But I think there best shot was for Farage himself to run in a STRONG Leave that usually votes right wing (Conservative or had a strong UKIP presence) and doesn’t have a well known MP.

Richard Tice is apparently the "new" BxP man in Hartlepool, which suggests they think they have at least a shot there.

Having just googled the guy, I can't help but be astonished that a solid 90% of British public figures (aside from football players) seem to have gone to 5-figure per year private schools. There can't be a single other western country where that would be considered as an acceptable, let alone normal situation.

Also Scunthorpe

Sсunthorpe strikes again!

And onwards we go

North East:

Berwick-upon-Teed - Safe Tory. Only held by the Lib Dems as long as they did because of Beith.
Bishop Auckland - Lean Tory gain. It was an act of political magic to hold on last time but I think Labour's luck will run out here.
Blaydon - Safe Labour. Yawn
Blyth Valley - Likely Labour
City of Durham - Safe Labour. Margin might interest but the result won't. And when I say 'might interest' I mean 'might be merely whopping rather than ginormous'.
Darlington - Tossup. Tilt Tory gain. Much of the majority last time was due to the terrible Tory candidate which won't be repeated. Better chance than in Bishop Auckland though.
Easington - Safe Labour. It won't be Easington to displace Labour here. heh
Gateshead - Safe Labour. Yaawn.
Hartlepool - Likely Labour. Or maybe not? How the Brexit vote ends up, especially in a seat like this, is difficult to properly judge. I'm unconvinced they'll get enough support to win the seat though, even if it looks deceptively close. I wouldn't be utterly blown off my seat if I'm wrong though.
Hexham - Safe Tory. This was close in 1997. Really. It was that mad of a year.
Houghton & Sunderland South - Safe Labour. Unfortunately it and the other early declarers won't be able to tell us much about the national swing. It failed to do so in 2015 and 2017 after all. Might give a few tiny clues though.
Jarrow - Safe Labour
Middlesbrough - Safe Labour
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Lean Tory. Maybe that's a bit generous to Labour. Or maybe it isn't.
Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central - Safe Labour. Yaaawn
Newcastle-upon-Tyne East - Safe Labour. Yaaaawn
Newcastle-upon-Tyne North - Safe Labour. Yaaaaawn
North Durham - Safe Labour
North Tyneside - Safe Labour
North West Durham - Likely Labour. I have a lot of not very nice things to say about this incumbent but I'll keep it to the unfortunate fact that she will almost certainly win.
Redcar - Safe Labour
Sedgefield - Lean Labour. This one probably falls one day but I'm uncertain that it'll be this time. Obviously not out of the question though.
South Shields - Safe Labour
Stockton North - Likely Labour
Stockton South - Tossup. Tilts Tory gain.
Sunderland Central - Safe Labour
Tynemouth - Safe Labour
Wansbeck - Safe Labour
Washington & Sunderland West - Safe Labour

A reasonably sized region with no constituencies I would dispute as being in a region described as 'North East'. Shocking stuff.

Scotland:

I'll begin with the preface that I despise the SNP and having to predict them winning almost everything is a depressing affair.

Aberdeen North - Safe SNP
Aberdeen South - Tossup. Tilts Tory, especially now the... er... interesting incumbent called it quits.
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - Likely Tory
Airdrie & Shootts - Likely SNP
Angus - Lean Tory
Argyll & Bute - Likely SNP. Alan Reid giving it another crack means that the Lib Dems have a decent floor to rely on which might be a problem for the Tories who will also give it a go. So I say O'Hara will hold on but could get interesting. But probably not.
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - Tossup. Tilt Tory hold
Ayrshire Central - Likely SNP
North Ayrshire & Arran - Safe SNP
Banff & Buchan - Lean Tory
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - Safe Tory. SNP will make gains across Scotland but this is not an area for them. It shows  how bizarre 2015 was that they won in the first place.
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - Likely Lib Dem. Don't see any reason why Stone would struggle.
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill - Likely SNP gain. Most of these 2017 gains will spring right back. Personally, I'm torn between my hatred of the SNP and my hatred of Corbyn. Drat.
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East - Safe SNP
Dumfries & Galloway - Lean Tory. Maybe Likely would be better, not sure. Either way, I think the Tories won't struggle holding.
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - Safe Tory
Dundee East - Safe SNP
Dundee West - Safe SNP
Dunfermline & West Fife - Likely SNP
East Dunbartonshire - Safe Lib Dem. Swinson is inevitable. Get over it.
East Kilbridge, Strathaven & Lesmahagow - Safe SNP
East Lothian - Tossup. Tilts SNP gain. Probably Labour's best chance to keep one of their 2017 gains.
East Renfrewshire - Tossup. Tilts Tory. Was very Remainy but they gained it in 2017 for a good reason (its upmarket enough that in England it would be fanatically Tory). An SNP win would obviously hardly shock though.
Edinburgh East - Safe SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith - Likely SNP
Edinburgh South - Lean Labour. That's a hell of a majority to overcome but then again, it's not like there isn't precedent in Scotland...
Edinburgh South West - Likely SNP
Edinburgh West - Likely Lib Dem. Doubt the SNP will even bother given the Labour targets nearby. Don't think there'll be an issue.
Falkirk - Likely SNP
Glasgow Central - Safe SNP
Glasdgow East - Likely SNP
Glasgow North - Likely SNP
Glasgow North East - Likely SNP gain. See Coatbridge, C & B.
Glasgow North West - Safe SNP
Glasgow South - Safe SNP
Glasgow South West - Likely SNP
Glenrothes - Safe SNP
Gordon - Tossup. Tilts Tory.
Inverclyde - Likely SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - Safe SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun - Safe SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - Likely SNP gain. See Glasgow NE.
Lanark & Hamitlon East - Likely SNP
Linlithgow & East Falkirk - Safe SNP
Livingston - Safe SNP
Midlothian - Likely SNP gain. See Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath.
Moray - Lean Tory
Motherwell & Wishaw - Likely SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar - Safe SNP. I think. Bizarre seat but one that in the end I think will be safe for the SNP even when Scotland begins to resemble a vaguely democratic country again. Whenever that will be.
North East Fife - Safe Lib Dem gain. They lost it by 2 votes when their nationwide vote share was less than half what it is at the moment. You do the maths.
Ochil & South Perthshire - Tossup, Tilt Tory. Without the electoral albatross of the previous SNP incumbent they will probably do a bit better. Remains to be seen. Interesting that the previous incumbent for East Dunbartonshire is standing here - shows the SNP are real confident about that one (but here's how Swinson can still lose!!!)
Orkney & Shetland - Safe Lib Dem. Jo Swinson could set a goose on fire and they'd still hold this one comfortably. The only truly safe Lib Dem seat in the country.
Paisley & Renfrewshire North - Safe SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South - Safe SNP. Signpost and weathervane my arse.
Perth & North Perthshire - Likely SNP
Ross, Skye & Lochaber - Likely SNP. With a sizable Labour vote to squeeze, whichever of the Tories and the Lib Dems really give it a go might have a chance, but given they probably both will, that's more or less it. A shame really, seeing Blackford go down would be so immensely satisfying it would forgive any other awful results this election.
Rutherglen & Hamilton West - Likely SNP gain. See Midlothian.
Stirling - Lean SNP gain. Yeah, that's not the kind of majority I'd want in this situation. Tories not completely out yet though.
West Dunbartonshire - Safe SNP

While it won't happen this election, it is at least somewhat satisfying to know that every day that passes is a day that we get closer to the SNP finally getting what they deserve. Oh please be soon.

And finally, Northern Ireland:

I should point out I know far less about NI politics than I do GB politics so these predictions are made with less confidence and will probably have less accuracy. You have been warned. Also both the two main parties are given alternative names because I hate them and want to belittle them. Who says pettiness has no place in psephology.

Belfast East - Likely GOP-NI. Maybe that's a little generous to the GOP-NI, but I'm not sure Alliance get that breakthrough this time. Would like to be wrong.
Belfast North - Tossup. GOP-NI hold if forced to choose but I imagine this one will come down to the wire.
Belfast South - Tossup. Tilts GOP-NI hold but the SDLP will run them close. I imagine.
Belfast West - Safe IRA
East Antrim - Safe GOP-NI
East Londonderry - Likely GOP-NI
Fermanagh & South Tyrone - Tossup. IRA hold if forced to choose. The GOP-NI are standing aside for the UUP but they did that last time and the IRA won anyway even with the SDLP standing, so things aren't always predictable. Will be very close again no doubt.
Foyle - Tossup. IRA hold if forced to choose but I imagine this will also be very close.
Lagan Valley - Safe GOP-NI
Mid Ulster - Safe IRA
Newry & Armagh - Safe IRA
North Antrim - Safe GOP-NI
North Down - Lean GOP-NI gain. The GOP-NI and the UUP will fight this one out but I think a good rule in Northern Ireland is that when in doubt, the insane party wins. Shame to see Hermon go.
South Antrim - Lean GOP-NI. See above (minus the Hermon bit)
South Down - Lean IRA. Might be an unpredictable seat. The whole 'not really knowing NI as well as GB' thing comes into play for me here though.
Strangford - Safe GOP-NI
Upper Bann - Likely GOP-NI
West Tyorne - Safe IRA

And that concludes that. If I decide any individual ratings are to change between now and polling day (and there more than likely will be) then they'll be posted here.

SDLP are almost certain to win back Belfast S methinks.

North is genuinely 50-50 and could well be recount(s?) terrirory.

Yeah, hard to see how the SDLP misses with SF standing aside for them. Alliance is the wild card, of course.

Right now, with a good idea of who is standing where I think it's likely to be 8 DUP, 5 SINN, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, and 3 ???. SDLP are putting all their eggs into the Foyle and Belfast South baskets. Foyle is a probable pickup since their leader is going there. The DUP get Hermon's seat for the reasons alluded to, but its probably to be an Alliance/DUP fight not UUP/DUP. Good number of potential voters for the Alliance near Belfast now that Hermons gone. Long's back in Westminster since she's in a 1v1 header with the DUP and Alliances fortunes are on the  upswing.

Now, both the DUP and Sinn are down from their 2017 high because NI has been govt-less for years since they cannot compromise. Sinn have  leadership troubles and the DUP have issues related to their support from Westminster. The Alliance are the  only NI party with any sort of 'momentum' right now, increasing support in both the locals and the EU. However, the Alliance lacks targets and is more likely to play a disrupter role. With this in mind, here are the tossups:

North Belfast: Pure DUP/Sinn fight, the DUP have been advantageous with their pacts here.
South Belfast: Alliance surge is a problem here for the traditional contest between SDLP and DUP, and it's a real three way fight.
Fem & S Tyrone: Only chance of UUP breakthrough, its a seat where any Sinn turnout drop or vote split gives away the seat.


FTR, very little  of these are  my takes. I have just as much knowledge of NI politics as you, so I follow an actual residents on-the-ground and up-to date takes. They can be found here (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/2019-uk-general-election-thread.477497/page-25#post-19709890), here (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/2019-uk-general-election-thread.477497/page-54#post-19738401), and here (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/2019-uk-general-election-thread.477497/page-64#post-19745710) - though you may need to create an account on this forum to view them, I cannot remember. If so I will repost here, there is a general timeline to them though.

Don't believe the Alliance hype in NI, as with their mainland cousins the European elections overstate the real strength of their position. They are almost definitely *not* going to win Belfast S or indeed get close.

(Belfast E and North Down are where they should be concentrating their efforts tbh)

I'm not going to defend my post and instead suggest you actually read the justifications from an actual NI'er. I've actually reposted the first one and his justification for the Alliance before - it can be found on page 2 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342118.msg7035627#msg7035627). It is the first take  in the timline though, now 10 days old and candidate nominations have made some redundant. Essentially, the EU elections are better data points in NI then they are anywhere else because sectarian voting doesn't stop for Brussels. He's also not comparing vote percentages, which can move with turnout and do make Euro elections useless 90% of the time, but total voters which are not really changing in NI.

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Finished map of Great Britain. Great job, DaWN.

Thanks for the map!

Does anyone have numbers for this predictions? Seems to look like a narrow Tory majority/plurality but I'm not sure

I got
Con: 12+23+22+21+36+38+8+53+47+75+22 = 357
Lab: 1+6+52+32+10+21+27+4+6+6+47 = 212
LibDem: 5+1+1+2+1+2+2+4 = 18
SNP: 41
Green: 1
PC: 2

Depressing. Sadly I can't really disagree with much at this point either. Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

Only 18 for the LibDems and only 41 for the SNP would be surprising, but the overall result makes sense.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Didn't the gap only really close in the second half of the 2017 campaign after both parties released their manifestos?

It was a pretty steady climb throughout the campaign. People only took notice in the last two weeks because Labour finally got within striking distance of the Tories. I think they may have had the lead in one or two polls within a week of E-day.

Doesn't 10 Scotland seats for the Tories seems pretty optimistic for them? I was under the impression that Boris is incredibly unpopular in Scotland, close to what Thatcher was.

Manifestoes aren't even out yet, that is the traditional "lift off" point in an election campaign.

(on that topic, reported the Tory one might not emerge until the end of the month - what's that all about?)

There are multiple opinions on this. First, if the tories get tied to brexit hard and have a poor Scottish campaign then they are going down to four seats that should be held barring retirement. The other option is if being for/against IndyRef2 becomes the sole focus of the Scottish campaigns, then Tory incumbents are naturally going to hold up better than swing models say. The unionist vote in Scotland has demonstrated far greater ease with voting tactically, and an incumbent is an easy target to rally around. In both scenarios unionist tactical voting will also benefit other parties.

Absolutely true of course (hence 'long way to go') but I'm not sure why a manifesto release would halt Labour's propensity for putting its foot in it that it has demonstrated over the last week or so. Of course, Boris has hardly proven himself to be Blair circa-97, but unlike Corbyn, he doesn't have to be.

Again, long way to go though.


I'm sure Boris is despised in Scotland overall but where he'll really be hated (Edinburgh, Glasgow and the rest of the central belt) is where the Tories will be walloped. I'm not sure that will lead to problems for them in seats that are well off and/or rural and/or voted leave. It was a quirk of pre-2015 Scotland that they weren't Tory in the first place. Obviously they (mostly) aren't safe though, given the SNP (snake oil salesmen they are) have more strength than Labour would should those seats be English.

Can't say I have noticed this much, save for some dubiously media hyped "incidents".

(and there were certainly those in the 2017 campaign as well)

Labour's campaign was pretty ropey at the start of the 2017 GE as well, and the government's poll leads were mountainous - much bigger than presently. Calm and order only turned up after the Unite leadership election ended.

Electoral Calculus with the Brexit stand down reduces the Tory loses in Scotland to 2, leaving them with 11.   It is predicting Scottish Labour’s worst run in a 100 year with the retention of only Edinburgh South.

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

Things can change in a month...but if the election were held today BoJo waltz's back into Number 10.What everyone knows though is that these numbers likely won't be final, a month is a long time. This election uniquely has a lot of potential energy trapped, that can push the election in a thousand and one different directions when it erupts. Which direction is what everyone's scared and arguing about.

I'm nothing close to an overly optimistic lefty & I think it ends up being another hung parliament, purely on the basis of a gut feeling that BoJo is definitely gonna manage to bungle up the Tory campaign. The only caveat is that I think the Tories lose just enough seats where they can't form a government even if they have the DUP's backing (which, in all likelihood, they won't), & Labour/SNP/Lib Dems/Plaid/Greens win just enough seats where they can form a very shaky minority government, one that won't last the year, but that will last long enough to call a summer referendum (& then, after that, another election toward the end of the year).

This is far from decided (the campaign hasn't really started yet, even) and anyone who claims otherwise is a sucker. Tory leads of 7-8% in the latest polls btw - not exactly a "waltz" on those figures even now, still less so if "strategic" anti-Tory voting takes off.   

Everybody agrees the Tories will have the most seats. The question is if they'll have a majority or not.

You'd have to be an idiot to treat any poll lead as an inevitable victory in British politics nowadays.

So, I'm gonna go out on a limb here & offer my two (admittedly, pretty early) predictions (so, almost both are guaranteed to be wrong), one for my head & one for my heart.

My head's prediction: Tory majority, WA Bill approved, & Brexit happens with BoJo's deal on January 31st.
Conservative: 339
Labour: 228
Liberal Democrats: 19
SNP: 41
DUP: 11
Sinn Féin: 7
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
Brexit: 0

My heart's prediction: A very shaky Labour minority government that won't last the year, but that will manage to last long enough to call a summer referendum (& then, after that, another election toward the end of the year).
Labour: 304
Conservative: 275
Liberal Democrats: 21
SNP: 29
DUP: 11
Sinn Féin: 7
Plaid Cymru: 1
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
Brexit: 0

This is going to be horrendously wrong but here goes:

Tories: 333 seats
Labour: 221
Scottish Nats: 45
LibDems: 26
DUP: 9
SF: 7
Plaid: 4
Alliance: 2
Greens: 1
Ind: 2 (Speaker's seat and Anna Soubry)

So basically a Tory majority of about 17

Here goes nothing:

Great Britain:
Tories: 343
Labour: 203
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 30
PC: 4
Independents: 3 (includes Speaker)
Greens: 1
Brexit: 0

Northern Ireland:
DUP: 10
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 1
Alliance: 1

There’s enough incumbent independents that I feel that there will be at least two that aren’t the Speaker. I will be quoting this and updating as the race goes on. At this rate, I’d say Swindon and Johnson will stay as leaders, with Corbyn stepping down.

Unpopular prediction but I am going with a Labour Maj of 5 seats

Is there anyone who doesn't understand that early campaign poll leads for the Tories mean very little when it comes to the final election results?

At the moment the Tories are well placed, but they may have played their last best card - the "let's eat up as much of the Brexit Party as we can" one.

The fact they intend to release their manifesto so late (just two weeks before the GE, almost unheard of in previous campaigns) suggest it is going to be a damage limitation exercise after the folk memory of 2017, not an inspiring programme that will sweep the board.

Yeah, I'm still pondering the wisdom of this move. It fits into the lifelong Johnson strategy of getting people to vote for something they probably don't want by avoiding as much public scrutiny as possible (hey, just like Brexit!). But it's also a way of ceding the field to the opposition, which isn't a good idea no matter how big your lead is. The fact that we've spent the past two days talking pretty much entirely about a Labour manifesto proposal ought to give Tories pause about not releasing any manifesto for another two weeks.

Updated NI:
DUP: 8 (incl. North Down)
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 3 (Foyle, South Down, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

SF has screwed up in Foyle. Kinda thinking that Aontu could keep their deposit there.

Considering how disliked Corbyn is, I think BoJo has a chance to win a yuge majority so best case Tory scenario

Tory      415
Labour  158
SNP      37
LibDem 17
PC         4
Green    1

While best case Labour I show the following

Tory      308
Labour  271
SNP      25
LibDem 24
PC        3
Green   1

So Tories winning most seats pretty much a near certainty unless there is a major screwup, but I believe Corbyn's unpopularity is too entrenched for Labour to win most seats.  I would say about a 90% chance of a Tory majority and a 10% chance of hung parliament with Conservatives being largest party.  I believe a 400+ seat majority for Tories more likely than a hung parliament.

A few ratings changes


Safe Tory -> Likely Tory

Based on the anecdotal information given to me by cp in the main thread, true, but I'll accept there's a tinge of uncertainty. I'll still very much believe it when I see it.


Lean Labour -> Likely Labour

The fallen poll numbers, the media hit jobs and Labour's faux Remain tilt mean I think these targets disappear for the Lib Dems. Hallam is the only seat I think they have much of a chance to take from Labour now (obviously it's a very good chance as it was basically an accident it was lost in the first place. Even then I might change that rating in the near future).

The polls are if anything getting closer, rather than the opposite. So any prediction the Tories will get more seats than in their 1983 landslide (when they were c16% ahead nationally) looks.....brave.

Depends a lot on youth turnout and how much of the Liberal Democrat vote holds up.  A decline in Liberal Democrats seems to result in 2/3 going Labour and 1/3 Tory so if LibDems stay above 15% bad news for Labour, but if under 12% helps them.  A lot of polls are going on younger voter turnout around 55% so if younger voters like 2015 don't show up, I think Labour likely will get less than 200 seats and Tories over 380.  If however younger voters show up in similar numbers to 2017 which based on registration seems quite possible, than probably a Tory lead of 6-8 points if things don't change, but could get even closer.  In this case, Tories right on the line for majority although I think applying a uniform swing is risky.  With Brexit being main issue, I think a lot of Labour seats that went over 60% leave will see much bigger swing towards the Tories and you could even see some seats Labour won by 20 points flip.  On other hand those with younger demographics and over 60% remain, I could easily see Labour holding onto many marginals that on paper may look vulnerable.

Also there is the tactical voting question too.  Are Liberal Democrats around 13-14% nationwide or is this heavily concentrated in London and other areas of South where many Labour voters will tactically vote Liberal Democrat while in much of the rest of the country are struggling to hit 5%.  If nationwide, good news for Tories, if more concentrated could make race closer than expected.

I'd caution against assuming a further Lib Dem collapse automatically helps Labour. It's likely just as much of their support comes from disaffected Tories rather than disaffected Labourites. It's also the case that the former are probably more important when it comes to winning seats.

The polls that compare 2017 to current vote so far show more Liberal Democrats going Labour than Tory but of those remaining may be right.  Likewise of Liberal Democrat gains, more came from Labour than Tories but you did get some Tory remainers particularly in London area switching.  That being said Tories are more or less polling at same level they had in 2017, while Labour is a full 8-11 points below 2017 levels so Tories have much greater voter retention than does Labour.

Also uncertain how much is Lib-Dem collapse and more just a Lib-Dem realization that their going to be a targeted party once again, so their voters in untargeted constituencies are just heading to where they would always go of the Libs are uncompetitive.

Tactical voting will make it hard to predict the number of seats that the Lib Dems take. I wouldn’t be shocked if they do better in terms of seats than expected while also doing worse than expected in the popular vote.

Very possible although I also think Liberal Democrat coalition this time is different than in 2010.  Places like Somerset, Devon, and Cornwall I think will stay Tory.  Those areas are older, rural, and mostly voted leave so I don't see many if any at all flipping back.  On other hand in London there is a lot of potential and so if any big gains, while problem be in London or areas in London commuter belt.  I would say Tory seats that voted over 60% remain are ones they are most likely to pickup while likewise Labour seats that went over 60% leave are likely to fall unless Labour won by a very large margin in 2017, but even ones where Labour won by 15-20 points in 2017, if over 60% leave they could flip.

Following YouGov’s release of the MRP:

England
Tories: 327
Labour: 189
Lib Dems: 19 (I think they’ll pick up St Ives)
Greens: 1
Speaker: 1
Mebyon Kernow: 0, but 5 in my heart

Scotland
SNP: 45
Tories: 9
Lib Dems: 4
Labour: 1

Wales
Labour: 26
Tories: 9
PC: 4
Lib Dems: 1

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8 (incl North Down)
(SF: 7)
SDLP: 2 (Foyle, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

UK Total
Tories: 345
Labour: 216
SNP: 45
Lib Dems: 24
DUP: 8
(SF: 7)
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Greens: 1
Speaker: 1

Some out there predictions on my part.

CON: 290 (-28)
LAB: 262 (+10)
LIB: 20 (+8)
Green 1 (-1)
SNP: 48 (+13)
Plaid: 2 (-2)


Sorry, but the link is screwing up the page

Remove the link please.

Good Christ. Does nobody understand how to use the preview button?

Had a look at the marginals and based on my assessment I'll go with this;
(Changes are from the last election)
Conservative: 343 (+26)
Labour: 221 (-41)
SNP: 43 (+8)
LibDem: 19 (+7)
650 seats
326 for majority

Some rating changes:


Lean Tory -> Likely Tory


Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory


Likely Labour -> Lean Labour


Lean Tory -> Likely Tory


Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour


Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory


Likely Tory -> Safe Tory


Lean Tory -> Likely Tory


Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory


Lean Tory -> Likely Tory


Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory


Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory


Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory


Safe Labour -> Lean Labour


Safe Labour -> Likely Labour


Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour


Lean Tory -> Likely Tory


Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory


Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory


Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour


Lean Tory -> Likely Tory


Likely Tory -> Safe Tory


Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory


Lean Tory -> Likely Tory


Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour


Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory


Likely Labour -> Lean Labour


Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory


Likely Labour -> Lean Labour


Lean Tory -> Likely Tory


Likely SNP -> Lean SNP


Likely SNP -> Tossup/Tilts SNP


Mostly general changes in order to reflect the state of the election as I know see it. I'll probably make one more set of changes as we close in on election day.

If *Bolsover's* shifting from Safe Lab to Lean Lab even as a non-open seat, an electoral-re-sorting earthquake is upon us.

Why is this only ever true of supposed "heartland Labour seats" being lost and never the opposite?

Just asking.

Labour isn't ahead. If they had the kind of candidate that appealed  to Tory Remainers like BoJo appeals to Labour Brexiteers than there would be serious chatter about seats like Maidenhead, Tunbridge Wells, SW Hertfordshire, Harrogate and Knares, Hitchin & Harpenden, and the rest. But we  don't have that luxurious situation. As it is Labour are struggling to gain Chingford and Woodford Green, a seat that I have to go out on a limb on when I say they gain it via tactical voting and incumbent rejection.

No, you misunderstand his (rhetorical) question. :) He means that why is it that when Labour lose (or are held to be at risk of losing in) places where they have held for a long time but are now quite different from what they were once (meaning that the lengthy tenure is basically archaeological),* that sort of language gets used, but when this happens to seats long held by other parties things are phrased differently. It's a fair point.

*As he won't mind me pointing out, he even lives in such a place.

You can even have Canterbury at the last GE as a counter example :)

My predictions have not been all that bad this year, so I'm taking a stab at this election to see how I eventually do. Given the polling, I see the downward trend of the Lib Dems continuing, but ultimately being insufficient to help Corbyn become PM.

Conservative: 339 (+22)
Labour: 228 (-34)
SNP: 43 (+8)
LibDem: 15 (+3)

Here’s my prediction at 10 days out. I’ll make an update next week, but here’s my current expectation/model/projection, or whatever you want to call it. I keep going back and forth on quite a few seats so there will be at least marginal changes by next week.

Conservatives: 345 Seats, up 27 since 2017, working majority of 23

Labour: 209 Seats, down 53 since 2017

SNP: 41 Seats, up 6

Lib-Dems: 30 Seats, up 18

Plaid Cymru: 5 Seats, up 1

Greens: 1 Seat, no change

DUP: 9 Seats, down 1

Sinn Fein: 6 Seats, down 1

SDLP: 2 Seats, up 2

Alliance: 1 Seat, up 1

Speaker: 1 Seat

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Seat Map

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Seat Change Map since 2017

The general theme is Conservatives making big strides in the north, and losing a bit in the south, but that bit is far less than the multitude of seats that could have been lost if the Lib-Dems caught fire. Whenever I make an ‘out there’ prediction, I’m going to explain my logic. I’m going to break my seats down into groups, and if you disagree with anything I say here, just pipe up. I’m rather far away and can only consume news, so any extra data points are appreciated.

Labour’s Silver lining

Every election has some seats that buck the general trend and flip towards the party on the backfoot. Unless it’s a tsunami where every seat moves towards one party to some degree, certain regions will still keep up their past trends. In this case, it is the greater South. In these seats it is Labour getting the benefit of tactical voting from educated Remainers, rather than the Lib—Dems. They are all marginal Labour Gains or Tory holds, so Labour Holding or Gaining any of these seats would be shocking. However, that’s what can happen in a region full of seats where Labour gained 10% in 2017. If labour starts to get better results in the next week then seats will be added to this group and removed from the next. Labour Gains or Holds about 33% of these ten:

Crawley

Hastings and Rye

Ipswich

Milton Keynes N

Milton Keynes S

Reading W

Southampton Itchen

Stevenage

Stroud

Watford

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The Northern Collapse

This has been the tale of the election: how many seats can BoJo get from Labour in the North to offset potential losses in the South. Well, the losses seem small compared to where they once were, but the North hasn’t seemed to be willing to give Labour another go in many seats. Some losses seem like automatic flips like Barrow & Furness or Darlington, whereas others are more marginal like Bolsover and Bradford South. All told I am seeing 44 Tory flips north of Birmingham and south the Scottish Border (this includes Peterborough & Norfolk North), and the only other gainer in the region is the obvious Lib-Dem flip in Sheffield Hallam. Tory strength is helped by Boris Johnson’s approvals being the best in the Midlands, at least according to multiple regional subsamples. South of this divider there are almost no Tory gains, just the odd Leaver seat held with a marginal majority in 2017 going blue.

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Northern Seat Map

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Northern Seat Change Map since 2017

Of these 45, there is one seat I have designated as a ‘Shock Seat’ which the media will zoom in on once the result comes in. Currently on the map this is a Tory gain in Blyth Valley. However, it could be any of these others: Hartlepool (Brexit is essentially Tory), NW Durham, Sunderland Central, and a handful of others outside of the immediate NW. If a Sunderland Seat comes in as a marginal or a flip…well the TV stations are going to have something to discuss for a few hours.

Lib-Dem Calculus

The Lib-Dems are starting from a low point and should only be able to go up from their 13 elected MPs, the question is merely by how much. Focused campaigns with strategic voting are hard to capture by polls, and so I made some concessions in their favor when compared to regular models. The thing is, I am seeing the Lib-Dems near their higher end of my expectations. What evidence there is from West London suggests Lib-Dem strength even though the national picture is bleak. More on West London later, but essentially this ‘ladder’ is built by assuming the Lib-Dems are going to get tactical voting boosts in demographically similar seats, albeit not as large of course.

Lib-Dem start: 3 ‘Safer’ seats outside of London or Scotland (Oxford W & Abington, Bath, Westmoreland & Lonsdale)

Easy Flips: If the Lib-Dems don’t gain all these seats, ignore the rest of the ladder. St. Albans, Sheffield Hallam, Winchester, and Cheltenham should all be orange unless the night is bad for the Lib-Dems. This brings the non-London/Scottish total to 7.

Well or Not: If this is a high-end projection, then give the Lib Dems S Cambridgeshire and Guildford, bringing our total to 9. If not, add these two to the next category.

The Pack: Depending on how good you are expecting the Lib-Dems to do you can say any amount of these seats can be holds or gains. However, they are all harder to justify and I have been shrinking the seats accessible in this category daily. When the seats are all tossups, you cut them in two, at least that’s my theory. Right now, it’s ten/twelve, but that can go lower. These ten can be held or gained:

Altrincham and Sale W

Brecon & Radnorshire

Colchester

Eastbourne

Lewes

North Norfolk

SE Cambridgeshire

St. Ives

Totnes

Wokingham

Finally, there is room for one surprise. Everything from that constituency poll yesterday to Raab’s bad reception on the ground suggests that Esher & Walton is more than vulnerable. Raab is well known to be out of step with his district, and when there is a scalp on the line, the opposition get’s frenzied. In my eyes, this is going to be a marginal flip to the Lib-Dems (brining the Non-London/Scottish total to 15), but it will be overshadowed by another high-profile defeat right nearby…

Weird Seats

This is the last group that needs to be covered outside of the London/Scottish/Northern Irish Seats. There are a handful of seats that are just weird, and when your prediction makes errors here one shouldn’t be disappointed. They are:

Beaconsfield: There is no Lib-Dem candidate here, they have endorsed Grieve. Grieve is prominent enough to survive potentially as an independent. His views match his seat’s Remainer lean, and there is 0% chance of any other party winning the seat so tactical voting may be in full swing – especially since it’s essentially a Tory primary. A poll came  out yesterday suggesting that Grieve still couldn’t get a majority…but independents are hard to poll.

Birkenhead: Frank Field was actually smart and has a party to stand for rather than run with the Indie label. Similar to Beaconsfield there is 0% chance of anyone else besides him and Labour winning the the seat, so it becomes a Labour primary. Downside is that Beaconsfield is only marginally for leave, which likely isn’t enough to save field. Labour should easily win, but once again, Independents are hard to poll.

Burnley: This is as close to a 4-way marginal that one may find south of Edinburgh, which makes it especially weird. I say the Tories edge it out since the prominent Lib-Dems and Brexit candidates seem better positioned to eat more from Labour here, but your guess is as good as mine.

East Devon: Claire Wright is running again on her independent ticket, and maybe she has a chance, maybe she doesn’t. On one hand, she is a perennial candidate, and Swire isn’t here anymore for her to run against. On the other hand, her repeated runs have led to a dedicated base forming, and an open seat is easier to flip than an incumbent seat. Also, independents are hard to poll, so who knows.

Southport: Historically a three-way marginal, and those are always hard to call. However, the Lib-Dems seem to have fallen behind, which leads to the question of where their votes will go. The Tory argument is that this seat is in the North where the Blues are gaining, and the Lib-Dems have more in common with the Conservatives than with the low-income workers. The Labour argument is that Southport is an urban seat with a large Remain base who will reject Boris. Who knows.

Ynys Mon: First off, this seat is rather parochial and weird with its preferences. Secondly, it’s a three way race between the Conservatives, Labour, and Plaid. It’s hard to poll Plaid since they get so few votes nationwide, and their voters may always or may never vote tactically depending on the seat. Now personally I think this seat is not going to stay with Labour, it’s either the Tories or Plaid who are getting a pickup, but it’s a three way. Even though I am saying Plaid edges it out, who knows how things may fall.

The London Pushback

Despite the large number of seats flipping away from the Tories, London is a rather simple place to model. It’s one of the only places in the country where politics is similar to US-style coalitions, so we have quite a lot of inflexible seats. Visible Minorities, age gaps, income gaps, homeownership versus income gaps, these all lead to some traditionally stark lines inside the city. This time, these demographics have colluded to present the United Kingdom with two options. They are: Do you believe in the strength of Remainer tactical voting in West London, or do you believe that it won’t be enough?  

There is a lot of on-the-ground data and local polls coming in right now that suggests the Lib-Dem vote is both concentrated and tactical in mind. The leafy, wealthy, white-collar West London seats seem like natural places for the Lib-Dems to gain this cycle. On paper, they seem too Remain for BoJo’s new Conservative party, but also too ‘Tory’ demographically for Corbyn’s radical Labour. We have also got constituency polls that suggest a Lib-Dem surge in this ‘slice’ of the London Pie (obvious disclaimer on the accuracy of constituency polls), with nearly every Tory seat on this side of the city being a 3-way. The more interesting data point though from every constituency poll is that over 50% of the voting population is open to tactical voting depending on who the two realistic candidates are. The same demographic variables that make the region a Troy-Remain stronghold also make it politically attuned to national and local variables. The people here want their votes power to be maximized.

 The data that suggested many seats in the South could flip faded for most of the shire seats, but it never really left inside the city. Instead, it seems to have intensified. Esher & Walton is similar to these west London seats demographically, but it was always closer to the tail end of the Lib-Dem target list. So, if a poll is suggesting E&W is close while we head into the final week, it suggests that the Lib-Dems are on track for more gains to the immediate north. Tactical voting is always missed by even the best models, so don’t be dissuaded by YouGov calling the seats as Conservative Holds. If you think that Tactical voting is going to be occurring to even a reasonable degree in Remain-heavy London, then the Conservative Blue vanishes from all but the outlying seats.

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Then there is the other view. This view does not believe in the strength of tactical voting to flip every seat. This view does not deny tactical voting will occur, we already know that, it just won’t go on to the degree that is needed for sweeps. At which case, everything gets far messier. Almost every seat enters a ‘weird’ category and needs to be analyzed individually. Also going against the idea of a sweep is the YouGov poll; remember this is a politically attuned area. Even though tactical voting is missed by the model, the tactical voters will know what they saw, and tons of leaflets may not change that. As it is, Chipping Barnet, Enfield Southgate, and Hendon are in said weird category, thanks to Jewish vote things. Will they go more for the conservatives, hesitant bunkmates that was ‘forced’ upon Barnet in 2017, or will they go Lib-Dem? And then will other conservatives of Labour follow them, and how many voters get stolen in the three way? Or will the Lib-Dems just end up wiping away the tory margin to give the seats to Labour…

Analyzing the seats under the ‘limited’ view requires going individual seat by seat. Richmond Park is more an extension of the already Orange outer seats, the Lib Dems nearly held the seat last time, and the former MP I running. It should flip easily. London & Westminster is less of an easy flip, but Chukka running there should bring over enough Labour voters to make the seat a marginal flip, especially since it’s open and lacking any MP to run on his own non-Boris brand. Putney and Wimbledon are both seats with marginal Tory majorities, but those margins came from Labour being the best Remain horse around in 2017. With the Lib-Dems making serious pushes here, who knows how many Labour voters or even Tory voters will flip tactically. Putney is open whereas Wimbledon still has Stephan Hammond, so there is an argument there that more voters are accessible to team orange or red in Putney. Both will be three-ways in this ‘limited’ scenario since the Labour base was already high before 2017. Kensington is a near perfect three-way so you would just toss the coin up. Battersea could be competitive, but the tactical voters will likely go Labour here. Finchley & Golders Green will have one of the largest swings anywhere in the country, but the limited view puts it in the uncertain pile with the rest of the Barnet seats. Finally, Chelsea & Fulham looks the most likely to reelect their Tory candidate, despite the Star power of the Lib-Dems and the prominence of Hands. It just looks like there are too many lockstep cons here, whereas the other seats were all marginal after 2017.

You, know London is still a Labour city so let’s stop talking all about the Liberal-Democrats. Unless the Tory lead is large enough that every seat moves right in some capacity, the city seems most poised to push back against BoJo. They know the guy after all, and can see through his personas. Like in 2017, Labour will likely pile on more votes here thanks to Remain momentum. Some of this comes from tactical voting, but more just comes from two more years of juiced turnout in in-migration adding more voters. Healthy Remain majorities also make seats more inflexible. This is why YouGov rates nearly every Labour seat in London as safe. All these factors combined are why I think IDS goes down. Remain London is going to move in one way, the Leave north is going to move in another. Labour’s got a good candidate on the ground there, IDS is hated these days in London, and his seat is the natural target for London Labour activists. The Labour will be one of the nights stories if it occurs, and overrule the potential for Raab to become said story. All these factors that I have listed are what’s going on in the Remain majority of London. The minority of Leave seats of the edges of the city are going to experience a similar effect to what’s going on in the rest of the country. Cruddas won’t be able to survive in such a Leave constituency that still had a healthy UKIP vote in 2017. YouGov has the seat as Lean Tory, and I do not disagree.

Scotland

The SNP is rebounding from 2017, the question on everyone’s mind is how much. Scottish politics is different both demographically and factionally from the rest of the UK, and Scotland has twice delivered swings that were unthinkable in other parts of the UK.

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Gong back to 2017, the SNP was at a comparative low point. It’s hard to think of things like this, but the SNP has control of the younger demographics north of the border. Labour’s base is older, and more likely to on pensions with memories of Thatcher. The SNP therefore is the principle victim if turnout drops. This is now more of an issue for the SNP since their new base is the urbanized strip between Edinburgh and Glasgow, the rural highland fishing towns have been abandoned to the unionists. The SNP had two urban problems in 2017: Corbyn energized the  youth and flipped some from SNP to Labour, and turnout dropped because of SNP disenchantment. This saw the unionists make a handful of gains in the populated strip.

Looking ahead a week, these problems seem to have reversed. SNP turnout is up, and Labour is down. This is likely not enough to save most Non-SNP MPs between the cities. Only the Lib-Dems are up among the unionist parties, and their vote is contained to a handful of constituencies. Even unionist tactical voting cannot save small majorities of Scottish Labour, something that I will cover in a moment. These are the areas where a turnout bump is going to manifest, and it will flip most of the regions seats Yellow.

Outside of the urban zones though the story is different. The Tories are not down by much, and they are going to hold up in the places most amenable to their unionist message. These are the rural or smalltown highland seats. There is some limited tactical voting that occurs between the unionist parties, and the rural highlands/borders seem most committed to their unionism. The SNP realignment from this area has also done them no favors, and under my prediction nets no Tory losses in the Border or highlands zones. Note how the YouGov model, which doesn’t weight for Tactical voting still has most of the rural seats remaining blue, it’s the denser tory Seats like Stirling and Renfrewshire East that are going to fall to the SNP spike. Finally, I say NE Fife flips to Lib-Dems, but that more of an uncertain call. It’s the next seat on my Lib-Dem list to flip to another party, and I think the unionist vote is going to be more tactical here after the close 2017 result. Remember, the Lib-Dems are up in Scotland on 2017, their campaign strategy tends to be concentrated, and there are only 8-ish seats where that boost can be felt – not all of them realistic Lib-Dem opportunities.

Northern Ireland

I don’t think this sort of projection requires much explanation; it is in a way the average Northern Irish breakdown at this point. The UUP and the SDLP have pursued differing strategies for a revival, with different outcomes. The UUP are seriously contesting everywhere, to maintain their region-wide voter base, but this wide campaign won’t produce any seats. The SLDP are trading long-term voter loyalty in several seats for opportunity in a few specific seats. This seems to be resulting in Westminster gains, but it may not be the best strategy for long term stability in Stormont. Coupled with the expected DUP/Sinn apathy and the limited Alliance surge, we get a few targeted seat flips. These seats are the competitive ones, but this does not mean a guaranteed close race, just a seat that requires investment:

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Belfast E: Pure DUP versus Alliance head to head fight. If you believe Alliance still has some momentum, then gains are going to manifest in Greater Eastern Belfast more than anywhere else, flipping this seat.

Belfast N: Nigel Dodds versus Lord Mayor John Finucane was set up to be a grudge match from the very start. I don’t think it’s outlandish to think Sinn’s odds went backwards a bit here after the public urination embarrassment, so I have it as DUP hold.  

Belfast S: Three-way battle between the SDLP, the DUP, and Alliance. From most perspectives it seems as if the SDLP are going to regain this target.

Fermanagh & S Tyrone: UUP versus Sinn in perhaps the UUP’s best seat around. The downside for them though is that the Unionist vote seems to be already consolidated around the UUP, who lacks momentum, whereas Sinn could still pull in Nationalist voters. Currently a Sinn hold.

Foyle: SDLP’s traditional stronghold is a place nobody except the Nationalists should have a chance at winning. The decision to pour in resources and run the  parties leader seems to have paid off, though the resulting gain will likely be marginal.

N Down: Hermon’s retirement opened up a seat for the DUP to potentially gain. There is no nationalist vote here to speak of, but there is a wealthy Remain Unionist vote. Maybe the Alliance can get Hermon’s old base near Belfast to flip Yellow, but right now it looks like the DUP will make this their gain of the night.

S Antrim: Solidly Unionist seat that was a UUP versus DUP battle in the past. The UUP are running their old MP Kinahan, but the slow UUP decline does them no favors. The seat least likely to be a flip on this list, but it will still be marginal.

S Down: One of the few Northern Irish polls released suggested a serious SDLP revival from the pit of 2017. If so, then South Down is back on the target list, even though it wasn’t a SDLP hit at the start of the campaign. It’s more likely to stay with the Sinners though considering the SDLP campaign strategy.

Overall, the 9 – 6 – 2 – 1 breakdown seems like the average and most likely of outcomes at this stage.

ORYXSLAYER MY $64,000 question for you is:  How do the Lib Dems ever catch fire?

Without proportional representation I do not truly see how the Lib Dems ever catch fire.

FPP systems are set up to discourage third parties.

Also party loyalty runs very deep.  I was a never Trumper until I considered the prospect of Hillary as President   My wife had preceded me and pulled me along.   

Ask Nick Clegg :P

Okay, in all seriousness, there are two ways for a minor party to surge under FPTP, or another restrictive apportionment system. I'm no fool, I respect Duverger and know not to trifle with statistics. However, the past is littered with examples of when parties, in this case of the Liberal to Left side, supplant each other. This cycle there was the potential for two different types of surges to occur, they just never happened.

The first hypothetical scenario is the case of the 'faster horse.' Historical examples  include Spain 2015/16, Canada 2011, Ontario 2017, Greece after the collapse, and France  2017. In this scenario the traditional party has royally stepped in it and can't wipe away the mess. A bad leader and a tainted brand have sent some 'scouts' out to other parties, but the majority still stay with Old Reliable. The new party meanwhile needs to have a leader with at least some charisma. The right has to be off limits, either  because of historical antagonism or a similarly awful brand/mess. Then a big event occurs, say a debate, notable rally, speech, scandal, endorsement, or whatever. At this point, all the somewhat politically attuned voters hop on the the surging party(ies) leaving only those dyed in the wool. Essentially, the new party just won the inter-left primary. If the system is somewhat proportional like in Spain or France's first round, here is where it ends. In FPTP systems though the lockstep voters look around, see what is happening, tell themselves they will always support the left, and en masse switch to the insurgent.

This scenario does not always result in the death of the old party. Some, like the Canadian examples, show that simply giving the old party time to sort out it's issues will heal all the wounds and the lockstep base returns. In other cases, the well to so tainted that nothing can ever be recovered. There was the potential for such a scenario this election: Corbyn is hated by the general electorate, Swinson was unknown, and Labour has a brand that is inflexibly trying to stitch together a chasm. What approvers corbyn has are the dyed in the wool voters, they would flip if forced to choose between Orange or Blue. the problem is, Swinson lacks charisma, and turned away the 'scouts' with her time in the coalition. Labour, for all it's troubles, played to the base this campaign, which means there is never any chance of desertion because Old Reliable needs trip to the repair shop. It's notable that Labour actually feared this scenario playing out, likely scared by Swinson's presidential campaign, which is why they put more  investment in retaining a hold on their Remain base rather than holding down Leave Northerners. This strategy was changed, likely coincidentally, after the YouGov poll dropped. In some way, the UK already experienced this hypothetical when the Tories 'endorsed' the Brexit party for the EU elections.

The Second scenario is the case of 'divide and conquer.' The right in general loves this tactic more than the left, and is happier to allow someone to play second fiddle if it means that the pair will down out all opposition. It also is easier to set up these kind of arrangements in proportional (think Scandinavia) systems, since such arrangements will not waste votes. In FPTP systems votes will naturally be lost in any sort of understanding, unless the alliance becomes formal and on paper. These arrangements emerge when one party is having trouble reaching out to another (often large, but not limited based on size) demographic or ideological group. So another party rises to fill the new gap that was either abandoned by the old party because of policy failings or a bad brand. In the end, both plaster over each others weaknesses and play to their strengths, since they will both be appealing to groups that never would have considered their partner in crime.

This scenario could have  occurred if Labour focused heavily on reasserting itself against a Leave opposition. Thinking about it, Labour really only has London as a concentrated base of remain seats, albeit London is large and vote heavy. If Labour focused more on BoJo, the Lib-Dems could easily step up and fill their natural role as "we're not Labour" in the Tory-Remain shires. This would clearly distinguish the two parties, but their stark contrast in targeted demographics and seats would work to each others benefit and result in combined gains. This hypothetical never emerged because London is inflexible, and Corbyn still played hard to remain rather then narrowing in on BoJo. London, in many ways, is the place where Corbyn is actually liked. Swinson also did herself no favors and staked out a position even more Remain than many Remain Tories. To some degree this hypothetical is still going on, but the seats it is occurring in are  limited a collection on the Lib-Dem's target list.

So these are two scenarios that work under the confines of Duverger and party loyalty, but still allow for a Lib-Dem surge. But said surge needed to manifest early. For example, early on I noted that Maidenhead had the numbers to flip if either situation occured, but it never came.

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Are you serious?   As of today the polling averages show that the Tories are a bit less than 1% (actually .72%) from reaching the 43.43% they attained in 2017.  Some polls show them receiving between 45 to 47%.  The same averages show that Labour is running 9% behind its 41.02% received in 2017. Some show it receiving 30% or less.

In spite of that, do you truly believe that the Tories are going to run further behind its 2017
share than Labour? If you really do, I think you need to explain how you reach this conclusion.

I understand the argument that Labor will close the gap.   But I think you are a little over exuberant in your estimation.

The Tories may be rising towards their 2017 level but remember during the campaign they were averaging higher than they eventually got. Not impossible they could undershoot this time.

The polling average also significantly underestimated the Labour share, in fact it got worse towards the end of the campaign.

Although I don't think we'll necessarily see a repeat of 2017 polling errors it's not an unreasonable assumption.

Don't focus too much on the vote share, remember this is derived from universal swing. Instead, look at the general seat count. I expect it to be in the neighborhood, especially if the SNP do better this time.

This is the Peak Banter result in my opinion.

My feeling is that the final pv will be something along the lines of:

41% Con
36% Lab
11% LDem
4% SNP
4% Brx
2% Grn

How that translates into seats depends on who's model you are using (and if I get time I'll have a more detailed look at each seat) but seems to me like a slight Tory majority, or a big enough minority to still govern.

I think Labour will surprise by minimizing the losses, and that we will end with a hung parliament because Tories lose too many seats in Scotland.

Latest poll has the Scottish Tories getting the same % vote as last time; it's been forgotten that for a lot of these seats you don't need 50% to win. You just need to get a combination of the unionist vote & the Brexit Vote.

SNP is on 44% though, so the Tories could lose perhaps half their seats in Scotland.

Using electoral calculus and guessing percentage vote, I get the following

Tories: 340
Labour: 228
LibDem 15
SNP 44
PC 4
Green 1

Best case Tory scenario

Tories: 367
Labour: 206

Best case Labour scenario

Tories 316
Labour 252

I think Tories could go as high as 380 seats if things go right from them while Labour as low as 180 seats.  For best case Labour scenario, that sounds about right.  I think chances of Labour beating the 262 they got in 2017 is close to nil while Tories at worse will perform just below 2017 in seats. 

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My completely unprompted, amateurish and Yank prediction. Roast me. I don't have the energy to calculate the seat count.

47% Conservatives
29% Labour
14% LibDems
  4% SNP
  2% Greens
  2% Brexit
  2% Others

CON majority of 101 seats.

Revising my (optimistic) prediction from the beginning of the campaign.

Conservatives about 340
Labour about 220
Lib Dems about 20
SNP about 45
Plaid about 5
Greens 1 or 2
Northern Ireland parties 18

330 wasn’t too far off last time. I think I’ll go with it again. A bit more detailed on the seats than last time, but no PV at this time.

England
Tories: 316
Labour: 193
Lib Dems: 21 (I think they’ll pick up St Ives)
Greens: 1
Independent: 1 (East Devon)
(Speaker: 1)
Mebyon Kernow: 0, but 5 in my heart

Scotland
SNP: 47
Lib Dems: 5
Tories: 5
Labour: 2 (Edinburgh South, K&C)

Wales
Labour: 25
Tories: 9
PC: 4 (incl. Ynys Mon)
Lib Dems: 2 (B&R, Ceredigion)

Northern Ireland
DUP: 9 (incl. North Down)
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 2 (Foyle, Belfast South)
Alliance: 1 (Belfast East)

UK Total
Tories: 330
Labour: 220
SNP: 47
Lib Dems: 28
DUP: 9
(SF: 6)
PC: 4
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Greens: 1
Independent: 1
(Speaker: 1)

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Great Britain results:
Conservative - 42% (-2%) - 322 seats (+5)
Labour - 37% (-4%) - 250 seats (-12)
Liberal Democrats - 11% (+3%) - 11 seats (-1)
Brexit - 4% (+4%) - 0 seats (-)
SNP - 4% (+1%) - 43 seats (+8)
Greens - 2% (-) - 1 seat (-)
Plaid - 1% (-) - 4 seats (-)

Revising my prediction ever so slightly:
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You think the SNP will lose seats ?

Especially: to whom? Those results would suggest Labour surging in Scotland at the SNP's expense, but regardless of the accuracy of general polling nationwide, polling in Scotland certainly doesn't suggest Labour gains there...

Its now being speculated that the SNP may drop a few more seats to the Tories.

(though personally I will believe that when I actually see it)

The SNP are going to go up in votes since 2017, that is as close to guaranteed as one can get. The problem is that these  votes are not efficiently distributed. This is an oversimplification, but half of the gains appear to be from 2015 voters who dropped off in 2017, and half are 2017 Labour voters. Both of these groups are concentrated in the SNP's new base of support: the urbanized strip between Glasgow and Edinburgh. This points to them getting 5 seats automatically: four from Labour and Stirling, and then potentially Renfrewshire East and Coatbridge as well. Those four Labour gains would have been five if they didn't throw away Kirkcaldy. So, lets say they are at +6.

Then we look at the other side  of the column. The Lib-Dems are  also up in Scotland on 2017, their vote is highly concentrated in about 8 or 9 seats, only and only a handful of those are realistic opportunities. So North East Fife could fall from it's effective tie last time - especially since the  unionists won the vote here and have a clear party to rally behind. Perth and North Perthshire was also extremely tight last time, and it's the last SNP in the highlands, an area which has become increasingly hostile to the SNP since 2014. So maybe the Tories pick that one up this time. The we have Central Ayrshire and Argyll & Butte, two more rural-ish seats that the SNP could face headwinds against a more tactical unionist vote. Finally, the Tories are supposedly getting positive signs from Edinburgh SW and Lanark & Hamilton East, two more suburban seats,though they are  both inside the SNP's urban corridor. If the Tories are seeing promising signs in these seats, then perhaps Renfrewshire East isn't in as much danger as it appears. So, lets say the SNP is down 2, with the  potential for more from this group.

This leaves them on net 4, with 39 seats. Not the most impressive if polarization is as strong as rumored. But that the thing, it's rumors so we shall see.

Great Britain

Conservatives 348
Labour 216
SNP 41
LibDems 20
PC 5
Green 1
Speaker 1

Northern Ireland

DUP 9
SF 5
SDLP 2
Alliance 1
UUP 1

My prediction:
- Hung parliament
- Lib Dems try to do a deal with Labour, and fail
- Lib Dems now try to do a deal with the Tories, a faction of Tories rebel over the demand for 2nd referendum which means another failure
- New elections?

Country by Country Breakdown:

England
Tories: 316
Labour: 193
Lib Dems: 21 (I think they’ll pick up St Ives)
Greens: 1
Independent: 1 (East Devon)
(Speaker: 1)
Mebyon Kernow: 0, but 5 in my heart

Scotland
SNP: 45
Tories: 6
Lib Dems: 5
Labour: 3 (Incl. Edinburgh South; K&C)

Wales
Labour: 23
Tories: 11
PC: 4 (incl. Ynys Mon)
Lib Dems: 2 (B&R, Ceredigion)

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 2 (Foyle, Belfast South)
Alliance: 2 (Belfast East and North Down)

UK Total
Tories: 333
Labour: 219
SNP: 45
Lib Dems: 28
DUP: 8
(SF: 6)
PC: 4
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 2
Greens: 1
Independent: 1
(Speaker: 1)

Aontu will keep their deposit in Foyle and Mebyon Kernow will keep theirs in St Austell and Newquay.

Final Changes

Linking all the quotes takes forever and I have things I need to do, so just take my word for it that these were the original ratings.

Chingford & Woodford Green: Lean Tory -> Tossup/Tilts Tory
IDS doesn't bring out the hate in me that he did a few years ago. I guess that's what time out of the limelight does. I'm almost rooting for Labour here.

Hornsey & Wood Green: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
Would have changed this one last time if I noticed it. But I didn't.

Hastings & Rye: Lean Tory -> Tossup/Tilts Tory
Mainly because of a gaffe from the Tory candidate. This goes back to my original rating btw.

Guildford: Likely Tory -> Lean Tory
You know, if the Lib Dems could stop f!cking everything up, that would be great.

Wokingham: Lean Tory -> Likely Tory
Unfortunately, we haven't been hearing anything from this seat which gives me the impression Redwood is home and dry. Can't tell you how badly I'd like to be wrong about this one.

South Cambridgeshire: Safe Tory -> Likely Tory
Again returning to the original rating. I'm fickle and changeable, what can I say.

Brecon & Radnorshire: Lean Lib Dem -> Tossup/Tilts Lib Dem
Out of caution. I still think Dodds will win though.

Wrexham: Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory
Another one I would have done last time if I noticed. This one falls even in a 2017-redux I think.

Edinburgh South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
pleaseletthesnpdobadlypleaseletthesnpdobadlypleaseletthesnpdobadlypleaseletthesnpdobadly

Glasgow North East: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
See above.

North East Fife: Safe Lib Dem -> Likely Lib Dem
Out of caution, because the SNP always get f!cking lucky in seats like this.

Which leads to a final seat change prediction of:
Conservative gain from Labour
Ashfield
Barrow & Furness
Basseltaw
Bedford
Bishop Auckland
Bury North
Bury South
Canterbury
Colne Valley
Crewe & Nantwich
Dagenham
Darlington
Derby North
Dewsbury
Dudley North
Gower
Great Grimsby
High Peak
Ipswich
Keighley
Lincoln
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Penistone & Stockbridge
Peterborough
Portsmouth South
Rother Valley
Sc**nthorpe
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stroud
Vale of Clwyd
Wakefield
Warrington South
Warwick & Leamington
Weaver Vale
Wolverhampton SW
Workington
Wrexham

Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat
Eastbourne
North Norfolk

Labour gain from Conservative
Putney

Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Brecon & Radnorshire
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Richmond Park
St Albans
Winchester

Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
Sheffield Hallam

Liberal Democrat gain from Plaid Cymru
Ceredigion

Liberal Democrat gain from SNP
North East Fife

SNP gain from Labour
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
East Lothian
Glasgow North East
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Midlothian
Rutherglen & Hamilton West

SNP gain from Conservative
Stirling

DUP gain from Independent
North Down

Speaker gain from Labour
Chorley

And for fun...
Incumbent with largest margin of defeat: Zac Goldsmith
Closest seat: Canterbury
Safest seat: Liverpool Walton
Safest Tory seat: Christchurch
Seat that will be agonisingly close but no cigar and then the hated incumbent will retire at the next election blunting the possible joy in a gain: Wokingham
Seat that will most annoy me: probably Dulwich & West Norwood lmao
Seat that Twitter and the media got their pants in a twist about that will end up with the largest majority for the incumbent party: Leigh

Tory majority of less than 15, Brexit and early elections by 2022

I feel about this pretty much exactly as I felt a month ago. Tories get between 305 and 310 seats and maybe manage to stay in power with a fragile minority government but without the ability to "get Brexit done."

Tory majority of 38,

Tories         343 seats
Labour       226 seats
SNP           43 seats
LibDems    14 seats
PC             4 seats
Greens      1 seat

Popular vote

Tories       43%
Labour     34%
LibDems   12%
SNP          3%
Brexit       3%
Greens      2%

So.

Contrary to the start of the campaign, I think the Tories will likely remain in government, either in a minority (winning a very similar number of seats to last time, give or take a few), or with a very narrow majority (330ish seats). I don’t think they will gain very many of the proverbial ‘northern marginals’ that have been discussed so much, but equally I don’t think they will lose more than a handful of seats to the SNP or the Lib Dems. I think it will be a very scrappy result with a lot of fairly random gains and losses - seats that Labour gained narrowly last time, like Peterborough and Canterbury could easily flip back to the Tories, whilst some of the narrow Tory holds like Hastings and Rye could go Labour. As I said, I think Tory gains in northern, midlands and Welsh marginals will be fairly small, but could be enough to put them over the top with a majority if they have a decent night elsewhere.

A few individual predictions:

Bolsover: Dennis Skinner will hold.
Esher, Guildford, South Cambridgeshire and Wokingham: The Lib Dems will come nowhere near in these. I think the best scenario for them will be the Tories falling to the mid forties whilst they get into the thirties, but still at least ten points adrift.
Brecon and Radnorshire: I think it’ll be close, but the Lib Dems will lose it.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson gets back with a slightly bigger majority.
Arfon: Possible Labour gain? Was very marginal last time and apparently Labour have been busing activists into it.

Okay, so time for me to update my predication. You can find last weeks general assessment found on the last page. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342118.msg7073897#msg7073897) In short, I said Tories 345, Labour 209. I thought that I might need to make changes, but it appears as if polls and models have moved into alignment with my projection last time, rather than the other way around. Conservatives doing good in the North, Labour+Libs holding up in the South and benefiting from tactical voting/targeted campaigns. Therefore this is my locked in prediction with some caveats:

Conservatives: 342 Seats, up 24 since 2017, working majority of 20

Labour: 220 Seats, down 42 since 2017

SNP: 38 Seats, up 3

Lib-Dems: 25 Seats, up 13

Plaid Cymru: 5 Seats, up 1

Greens: 1 Seat, no change

DUP: 8 Seats, down 2

Sinn Fein: 6 Seats, down 1

SDLP: 2 Seats, up 2

Alliance: 2 Seat, up 2

Speaker: 1 Seat

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My regional breakdowns here are in response to my breakdowns from last time.

The North

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Labour continues to be down by a lot in the Northern, Brexit-voting seats. There are less losses then the 45 north of Birmingham/Coventry last time, this time it's only 40. However, Remain/Leave polarization keeps BoJo on track for his majority.

The South

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YouGov and other models show Labour and the Lib-Dem's picking up steam, which is what I always expected. Some gains have been moved about, but the trend is the same. Watford is a key pick for this theme: Lab+Lib can easily outvote the Tories if they vote tactically to stop Brexit, but if they don't then the Cons sneak through. Raab goes down.

Lib-Dems

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I mentioned last time that the Lib-Dems are always undershot by models thanks to their campaign strategy. Aggressive targeting is missed by even the best projections because of how the vote is concentrated in a handful of seats and disperses in the rest. Well, at least in the South, the places this vote  is concentrated in appear to have come to an agreeable position in thee light. Every southern Non-London Gain is a pure Lib-Dem vs Tory grudge match for the top slot.

Only Brecon & Radnorshire deserves mentioning because that seat is more of a 'most likely' stand in. One of Ceredigion, Totnes, B & R, Eastbourne, Cheadle, Altrichim and Sale W, and Beaconsfield will not elect a Tory (or PC for Ceredigion), and B & R seems the most likely of the pack to stay with the Lib-Dems.

London

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London has significant changes from last time around, even though it may not appear as such. The big thing was that 10 days ago I believed in the 'max Lib-Dem' tactical surge in West London. Data suggested back then that such a event was a realistic possibility. Recent data shows that this never materialized, and so we move down to the second potential outcome described then: confusion. Five seats (Twin Cities, Kensington, Putney, Wimbledon, Finchely & Golders Green) now are all unknowns. The majority of voters in all 5 do not want a Tory Brexit, but that majority is divided between Lib and Lab. In some seats, the Lib-Dems are the clear challengers, in others Labour. This is the area most likely to vote tactically outside  of Scotland, so maybe things will turn around in a single day. Here's how I justified each seat:

Putney & Kensington: Labour are now the clear Tory alternative. Polls show Labour close and enough Lib-Dems prefer them to the Tories. Models suggest both seats should flip. So, Tories only hold if they are able to walk down the middle despite tactical remain voting.

Twin Cities & Wimbledon: Lib-Dems are the clear alternative, but data is less favorable than in the Labour seats. Both should be flipping under normal models, but it is unclear if said models can apply. Wimbledon has better Lib-Dem fundamentals, but Stephan Hammond is the type of guy who can push back against t he unfavorable headwinds. Twin Cities has no incumbent and has a better baseline, but the Labour vote appears inflexible enough to let the tories through. I say one of the two flip, and Wimbledon was the easier seat to call.

Finchley & Golders Green: Every model can't weight for Jews because of their small numbers and flexible  membership, so it's best to ignore every models expectations for what happens in Barnet and go with the fundamentals. the fundamentals suggest the Lib-Dems are the only ones running a Jewish candidate, and certain Jewish communities may flip overwhelmingly to them, something polls will miss.

Besides this, I'm sticking with my IDS and Dagenham flip predictions.

Wales

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So I'm taking the  middle path between YouGov's MRP and the welsh barometer. Voter concentration and flexibility suggests though that if Labour are significantly below what the MRP has them at then most of the north moves as a block away from Labour. That's essentially what happens here. Also, Ynys Mons is weird like usual but I called a PC gain a week ago and I'm sticking with it, even though the PC vote is hard to pick up and model.

Scotland

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First off, no model can give you an accurate picture of what's going on in Scotland. Too many parties, too much tactical voting, too little historical data. I would be far more confident in giving you my prediction of 38/39 SNP, 13/12 CON, 5 LIB, and 3 LAB, and just leaving it at that. Since this a map thread though, here we go.

With such a mixed picture, you have to find something and cling to it. For this projection, I'm clinging to polarization. The 3 to 4 percent the SNP pick up are concentrated in the urbanized corridor between the cities, and they continue to move backwards in the Highlands. The one seat I am most uncertain about is Lanark and Hamilton East, there is a lot of conflicting information going on there. Lib-Dems are also up, so they gain Fife North East. Labour are down, but tactical voting savings theme in Coatbridge, and the SNP threw away their potential gain in Kirkcaldy.

Northern Ireland

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The numbers on the tin have not changed since last week. I still think 9 DUP seats, 6 Sinners, 2 SDLP pickups, and 1 Alliance is the most likely outcome. However, I now think a caveat needs to be added to this normal prediction. In addition to the 2 SDLP pickups and 1 Alliance gain in Belfast East, I am saying a fourth flip will occur. I'm not sure if this flip will be a Sinn Fein gain in Belfast North, a UUP gain in F & S Tyrone, or the Alliance gaining both their tossups. However, the second Alliance gain is the  most likely of those three, so I'm putting it on the  map. Also, low chance of the Alliance getting Belfast South instead of the SDLP.

In the spirit of bookending, I'm going to make a second prediction one day before polling day:

Tory: 305
Labour: 257
SNP: 45
LD: 21
DUP: 8
SF: 7
PC: 3
Alliance: 2
UUP: 1
Green: 1
Brexit: 0

Figures above assumed with a +/- 5 seats for Tory/Lab/SNP.

I'm not too fussed about percentages, but something like a 39/38/13 is the general ballpark.

A few minor predictions: Johnson, Skinner, Swinson, Baker, Berger, Ummuna, and Redwood win their races. Raab, Goldsmith, Onn, and Blake (LD in Sheffield Hallam) lose theirs.

Maybe not a very original or daring prediction, but here we are:

Cons - 342 MPs (43%)
Lab - 226 MPs (34%)
Lib Dem - 17 MPs (12%)
Nat - 46 MPs (3%)
GP - 1 MP, 3%

Overall majority: 34
Overall swing: 3.0% to Cons

Margin of error: +/- 15 MPs (equivalent to roughly +/- 2% of swing)

 I'll have a crack at it…

Popular vote
Conservatives:43%
Labour:36%
LD:11%
SNP:3%
Brexit:3%
Others: 4%

Seats
Tories: 336
Labour:234
SNP:42
LD:18
Others: 20

Party  Seats  Vote share
CON     358     44.8%
LAB      216     33.8%
LDEM     14     12.8%
BXP         0       2.0%
Green      1       1.9%
SNP       40       3.5%
PC           3       0.5%

CON: 326
LAB: 223
SNP: 51
LD: 25
Plaid: 5
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
DUP: 8
SF: 7
Alliance: 2
SDLP: 1

Absolutely the best possible outcome. Boris's majority on a knife's edge so we get to hear about him technically losing it every time some old Tory windbag finally keels over, the odds of the Brexit deal passing come into question, Labour descends into a drawn-out leadership battle, SNP does well enough that IndyRef 2.0 starts looking likely, Lib Dems over-perform and let it go to their heads (not wise!), and the distant whispers of a border poll grow just a little louder...

FINAL PREDICTION
I'm optimistic enough to think tactical voting and regional vote concentration for Labour and the Lib Dems will cause Labour to lose fewer seats than expected in the north, and the Lib Dems to gain more seats than expected in the South. With my predicted seat totals, this will lead to a hung parliament. Perhaps that will lead to a Labour+Lib Dem+SNP+Plaid+Alliance+Independent+SDLP+Green coalition of chaos one seat over the 323 I project will be needed for a majority. Perhaps the Torys can find 12 MPs willing to give them a majority. Most likely, a Corbyn-led minority government would occur, with a second referendum on Brexit, which is what really counts. New elections within two years would be almost inevitable.

SEAT BREAKDOWN (change from 2017)
Conservatives: 311 (-6)
Labour: 228 (-34)
SNP: 49 seats (+14)
Lib Dem: 35 seats (+23)
DUP: 8 seats (-2)
Plaid: 5 seats (+1)
{Sinn Fein: 5 seats (-2)}
Alliance: 2 seats (+2)
Independent: 2 seats (+1)
SDLP: 2 seats (+2)
Green: 1 seat (-)
Speaker: 1 seat (-)
UUP: 1 seat (+1)

POPULAR VOTE
Conservative: 42%
Labour: 36%
Lib Dem: 13%
SNP: 4%
Brexit: 2%
Green: 1%

PROJECTED FLIPS

Alliance flips from 2017: 2 seats
Belfast East
North Down

Conservative flips from 2017: 31 seats
Ashfield
Barrow and Furness
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Bolton North East
Buckingham
Colne Valley
Crewe and Nantwich
Darlington
Derby North
Dewsbury
Dudley North
Great Grimsby
Hyndburn
Keighley
Lincoln
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Rother Valley
Sc**nthorpe
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Wakefield
Warrington South
Warwick and Leamington
Weaver Vale
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South West
Workington

Independent flips from 2017: 2 seats
Beaconsfield
East Devon

Labour flips from 2017: 7 seats
Bolton West
Crawley
Ipswich
Milton Keynes North
Reading West
Southampton Itchen
Watford

Lib Dem flips from 2017: 23 seats
Altrincham and Sale West
Battersea
Cheltenham
Chelsea & Fulham
City of London & Westminster
Colchester
Esher & Walton
Finchley & Golders Green
Guildford
Kensington
Lewes
North East Fife
Putney
Richmond Park
Sheffield Hallam
South Cambridgeshire
Southport
St. Albans
St. Ives
Totnes
Wimbledon
Winchester
Wokingham

Plaid flips from 2017: 1 seat
Ynys Mon

SDLP flips from 2017: 2 seats
Belfast South
Foyle

SNP flips from 2017: 15 seats
Aberdeen South
Angus
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Banff and Buchan
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
East Lothian
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow North East
Gordon
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Midlothian
Moray
Ochil and South Perthshire
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Stirling

UUP flips from 2017: 1 seat
Fermanagh & S Tyrone

Well it is approaching 7 p.m.   One poll I read pointed out that a disproportionate number of undecided were Labour Leavers.  I am going to stick my neck out.  I am going to predict these Leavers are going to give the Tories an unexpectedly large majority closing in on 360 to 370 seats.  They want Brexit completed. They do not want the uncertainty and mess of a hung Parliament  that was clearly revealed in October.

I may provide a list of seats later this evening.

The popular vote
   Tories 45%
    Labour 32%
   Lib Dem 12%
    Brexit.    3%
    Green.    3%
     SNP.       3.5%
     Plaid.        .5
      Other.     1%

This prediction has a calming effect on me.  It meets my hopes.  If I am wrong, it is no skin off my back.  It will be Britain which will suffer with a hung Parliament and Corbyn messing things up.

Con 361
Lab 206
SNP 42
Lib Dem 16
DUP 10
SF 6
PC 5
SDLP 2
Green 1
Speaker 1

Being deliberately pessimistic and assuming that if the polls are out, it may be in a similar fashion to 2015 rather than 2010 or 2017. I suspect the voters of small-town England will get the chance to repent at leisure (insert reference to Mencken here).

Con - 303
Lab - 254
SNP - 55
LD - 16
Green - 1

2019 UK election
Boris Johnson-Conservative: 337+20 42.7%(-0.8%)
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 233-29 35.6%(-5.4%)
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 40+5
Jo Swinson-LibDem: 16+4 12.3%(+4.7%)
650 seats
326 for majority


SNP gains; Stirling (from Con), Glasgow North East (from Lab), East Lothian (from Lab), Midlothian (from Lab), Rutherglen and Hamilton West (from Lab), Coatbridge Chryston and Bellshill (from Lab)
LibDem gains; North East Fife (from SNP), Sheffield Hallam (from Lab), St Albans (from Con), Cheltenham (from Con), St Ives (from Con), Richmond Park (from Con)
Con gains; Buckingham (from Speaker), Eastbourne (from LibDem), Ipswich (from Lab), North Norfolk (from LibDem), Peterborough (from Lab), Wrexham (from Lab), Dudley North (from Lab), Newcastle-under-Lyme (from Lab), Stoke-on-Trent North (from Lab), Ashfield (from Lab), Bassetlaw (from Lab), Derby North (from Lab), Colne Valley (from Lab), Great Grimsby (from Lab), Keighley (from Lab), Penistone and Stocksbridge (from Lab), Rother Valley (from Lab), Sc**nthorpe (from Lab), Wakefield (from lab), Barrow and Furness (from Lab), Blackpool South (from Lab), Crewe and Nantwich (from Lab), Bishop Auckland (from Lab), Darlington (from Lab), Stockton South (from Lab)
Labour gains; Putney (from Con)

  I'm also going with Con 328 seats.

My prediction

My prediction:
Tories: 345
Labour: 224
SNP: 40
Lib Dems: 18
PC: 4
Green: 1
NI: 18

I take it you are pro Tory.  Cheer up.  It is going to be good evening.

Can you please behave yourself?

My Prediction:


Conservatives : 352
Labour: 216
SNP: 41
Lib Dems : 19
Others : 22

Con: 355
Lab: 214
SNP: 38
LD: 19
PC: 3
G: 1
Speaker:1
Independent:1
DUP: 9
SF: 6
SDLP: 2
APNI: 1

375 CON
194 Labour
  33 SNP
  24 LibDems
  18 N.I. parties
    4 PC
    1 Green

    1 Speaker

Turnout: 74.6%

Indeed. This thread is for posting and discussing predictions. Discussing in a calm and on-topic manner, and the (now deleted) post made by Mr. Keyboard Warrior is the very opposite of what this thread should be about.

Based off the final polls, with greater weight on MRP results, and YouGov's MRP constituency results, I'm going for the following. The range is based on constituencies with a projected majority of less than 5.5% switching hands.

Overall
Great Britain
Con - 355 (315-399)
Lab - 215 (178-245)
SNP - 41 (33-54)
Lib - 15 (8-20)
PC - 4 (4-5)
Grn - 1 (1-1)
Spk - 1 (1-1)
Brx - 0 (0-0)
Oth - 0 (0-1)
Conservative majority of 60 (short by 11 to majority of 148)

Northern Ireland
DUP - 10 (7-10)
SF - 6 (6-8)
SDLP - 2 (0-2)
APNI - 0 (0-3)
UUP - 0 (0-0)

Seats changing hands in central forecast
Con -> Lab (2)
Chipping Barnet
Putney

Con -> SNP (4)
Angus
East Renfrewshire
Gordon
Stirling

Lab -> Con (46)
Ashfield
Barrow and Furness
Bassetlaw
Bedford
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Bolsover
Bolton North East
Bradford South
Bury North
Bury South
Clwyd South
Colne Valley
Crewe and Nantwich
Darlington
Delyn
Derby North
Dewsbury
Don Valley
Dudley North
Gedling
Great Grimsby
Hyndburn
Ipswich
Keighley
Lincoln
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Peterborough
Rother Valley
Sc**nthrope
Sedgefield
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stroud
Vale of Clwyd
Wakefield
Warrington South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South West
Workington
Worsley and Eccles South
Wrexham

Lab -> Lib (1)
Sheffield, Hallam

Lab -> SNP (3)
Glasgow North East
Midlothian
Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Lab -> Speaker (1)
Chorley

Lib -> Con (2)
Eastbourne
North Norfolk

SNP -> Con (1)
Lanark and Hamilton East

SF -> SDLP (2)
Belfast South
Foyle

Speaker -> Con (1)
Buckingham

CON 338
LAB 227
SNP 46
LD 18
PC 3
DUP 8
SF 8
SDLP 1

Well, I was wrong. Oh well.

Not bad