Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: c r a b c a k e on October 20, 2019, 04:15:15 PM



Title: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: c r a b c a k e on October 20, 2019, 04:15:15 PM
Happening today. Evo Morales, in office since 2006, is running for an unprecedented fourth term following the controversial Supreme Tribunal decision to strike down term limits (that were in the constitution).

Candidates

Evo Morales (MAS) -  Born into poverty, Evo Morales cut his political teeth as head of a union for coca growers which fought against War on Drugs attacks on their livelihoods. Ultimately this outlook took him into direct conflict with various Bolivian governments, which he saw as selling out a traditional Andean pastime at the behest of foreign Yankees. He took his union into the field of politics, eventually coming over to take over a largely defunct Falangist (yeah) party, MAS, and beyond his initial focus on legalizing coca to a broader socialist outlook. Luckily for him, the Bolivian business and political elite were dysfunctional, venal and dominated by whites in a very non-white country, and their response to him exploiting the crisis created after the Water and Gas Wars were shambolic: trying to expel him from Congress on dubious grounds, cycling through several hapless Presidents and rather blatantly trying to get the Bush administration to bail them out. In 2005, Morales won with a majority in the first round, a feat which he repeated in 2009 and 2014.

Evo Morales's Presidency, for all its leftist bluster, is very similar to the sort of social democracy we are familiar with elsewhere, avoiding calls to nationalize mines and pushing for pro-growth policies with largely balanced budgets. He took credit (fairly or unfairly, according to your political persuasion) for an extraordinary economic boom: cuts to poverty, inequality, unemployment, the deficit, debt and inflation all bolstered his popularity and allowed him to deflect from all other criticisms. This also led to social reforms: the elimination of illiteracy (by some measures, anyway), a modern constitution, recognition of indigenous peoples and the legalisation of coca. Even the end of the commodities boom hasn't been as disastrous as it was in Ecuador and Venezuela, owing to the aforementioned lack of deficits during the boom years. The ultimate legacy of MAS appears to be the creation of a truly indigenous middle-class, which isn't something to sniff at.

Not all find Morales so great. The country's lowland eastern provinces especially have been the centre of opposition to him, led by the wealthy and whiter province of Santa Cruz. The eastern lowlands have even made threats about secession, afraid of losing power to the lowlanders. The recent moves to quash terms limits in violation of his own constitution and a referendum have certainly stung. The country's strong focus on supporting extractive industries including within national parks has also caused a green backlash, especially after a disastrous fire this year that burnt vast swathes of the Chiquitano dry forest blamed on indiginous highlanders moving into the lowlanders turf and overly exploiting the land. And a recent rise in the deficit may portend future economic storms: should the President have done more to diversify the rather backward and non-industrial Bolivian economy? Even in the 2015 local elections, MAS saw some punishment, especially in middle-class urban indigenous areas that had once been the primary beneficiary of the President's pro-indigenous reforms (El Alto) - perhaps the ascetic President for the poor will become a victim of his own success?

Carlos Mesa (FRI or "Revolutionary Left Front") - One of the Presidents in the old Gas Wars, Mesa won some credit for breaking from the previous harsh treatment of protesters unleashed by his predecessor Goni upon the latter's resignation. Mild-mannered and intellectual, Mesa presents himself as a compromise figure who can unite the people who have always hated Morales with students, liberals and the new urban middle-class irritated by the term limits shenanigans without representing a drastic turn to the economic right (although Mesa pushes for increased foreign investment). He also is trying to court the green movement, opposing extractive industries in national parks. In case you are curious about Mesa's new party's name, it may not surprise you to know that the FRI, after previously being a front for a Maoist rebellion back in the day, seems (from my understanding) to have placed itself up to sale after the death of its longtime leader in 2017.

Oscar Ortiz "Bolivia Says No" - in third place is the Senator from right-wing stronghold Santa Cruz. Mr Ortitz represents a political tendency that is very much opposed to the, err, racial developments that have occurred under Morales. His candidacy has very much annoyed the Bolivian opposition, who wanted a united front, but his party wanted to cement its control over Santa Cruz province. Also very much an anti-Green, who seeks to export the "Santa Cruz model" (i.e. drill baby drill/more soy beans) to the entire country.

Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: jaichind on October 20, 2019, 04:17:47 PM
If Evo does not get to 50% of the vote I assume Congress decides ?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: c r a b c a k e on October 20, 2019, 04:34:38 PM
If Evo does not get to 50% of the vote I assume Congress decides ?

nah run-off in December. He also avoids the run-off if he is over 40% and ten points clear of his rival, which is another reason why Otiz's campaign caused so much ire. (heck, his own VP candidate defected mid campaign and endorsed Mesa)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: H. Ross Peron on October 20, 2019, 05:31:02 PM
Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.

Chung is the child of missionary Korean Presbyterian parents and who was naturalized as a Bolivian citizen. Despite his right-wing views (he even is citing Park Chung Hee "Saemaeul" or New Villages programs as precedent for how he will develop Bolivia's economy), he was born in the famously left-leaning city of Gwangju.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Quislings Anonymous on October 20, 2019, 06:41:34 PM
Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.

Chung is the child of missionary Korean Presbyterian parents and who was naturalized as a Bolivian citizen. Despite his right-wing views (he even is citing Park Chung Hee "Saemaeul" or New Villages programs as precedent for how he will develop Bolivia's economy), he was born in the famously left-leaning city of Gwangju.

Now that’s a fascinating candidate.

Mesa doesn’t seem too bad.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: bigic on October 20, 2019, 07:13:02 PM


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Sir John Johns on October 20, 2019, 08:36:10 PM
Results with 64% counted:
Evo Morales (Movement for Socialism) 45.3%
Carlos Mesa (Civic Community) 38.2%
Chi Hyung Chung (Christian Democratic Party) 8.8%
Óscar Ortiz (Bolivia Says No) 4.4%
Félix Patzi (Third System Movement) 1.2%
Virginio Lema (Revolutionary Nationalist Movement) 0.8%
Ruth Nina (National Action Party of Bolivia) 0.7%
Víctor Hugo Cárdenas (Solidarity Civic Union) 0.5%
Ismael Rodríguez (Front for Victory) 0.3%

Morales won the departments of La Paz, Potosí, Oruro, Cochabamba and Pando while Mesa won the departments of Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca, Tarija and Beni.

(great write-up Crabcake btw).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on October 20, 2019, 09:21:40 PM
Glad to see the obvious racist go down in flames. Mesa definitely seems like a step in the right direction for the anti-Morales camp, and there are a lot of legitimate reasons to conclude that Morales' time has gone, but ultimately I'd still rather he won this one. I don't trust the opposition not to undermine his accomplishments.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 21, 2019, 01:41:13 PM
With Morales’s camp claiming late votes from his rural base will put him over the 10%-gap threshold, the count has stalled at 83% (although I’ve also seen figures saying 86% or even 89%), with the percentages essentially unchanged (maybe a bit more for Ortiz and a bit less for Chi). The opposition is already crying foul and declaring victory by having forced a runoff. No word on when it’ll officially resume.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: c r a b c a k e on October 21, 2019, 04:47:52 PM
Chamber of Deputies

MAS - 64 (-24)
CC (FRI led list) - 54 (+54)
Christian Dems - 9 (-1)
MDS (Ortiz list) - 3

MAS narrowly loses majority

Senate

MAS - 19 (-6)
CC - 16 (+16)
MDS - 1
Christians - 0 (-2)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Heat on October 21, 2019, 05:55:03 PM
Chamber of Deputies

MAS - 64 (-24)
CC (FRI led list) - 54 (+54)
Christian Dems - 9 (-1)
MDS (Ortiz list) - 3

MAS narrowly loses majority

Senate

MAS - 19 (-6)
CC - 16 (+16)
MDS - 1
Christians - 0 (-2)
How much of a hindrance would this result be to each of Morales and Mesa, if they were to win the second round?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: PSOL on October 21, 2019, 07:00:39 PM
Hopefully Morales wins the Runoff. Let this be a painful lesson that MAS needs to start delivering to the Bolivian people stat, starting with running new blood.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 21, 2019, 09:02:53 PM
The counts I’m seeing now have Morales at 46% and Mesa at 36% (Morales having juuuuust over a 10% lead), with 95% of the vote in. Seems fishy but not outside the realm of possibility.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 21, 2019, 11:50:43 PM
Protests and repression all over the country. Mesa refuses to recognize Morales’s proclamation of victory in the first round.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Gulf Coastal Elite on October 22, 2019, 09:38:43 AM
Back in the good old days, you wouldn't need to pause the count for 24 hours to "find" enough ballots to put you over the top. Where is dedication? Where is passion? Where is respect for the craft?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 09:43:48 AM
I recall back in the 2016 Referendum the the later part of the count got more Evo friendly so it is not a surprise that the Evo lead gets larger toward the end of the count.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 22, 2019, 01:58:27 PM
I recall back in the 2016 Referendum the the later part of the count got more Evo friendly so it is not a surprise that the Evo lead gets larger toward the end of the count.

As he said, a lot of the 17% of remaining votes were from rural areas, which are strongly pro-Evo.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 22, 2019, 08:33:49 PM
Results as of now are showing Morales up by 9.4% with 96% of the vote counted. The government has invited the OAS to supervise the vote, and Secretary General Luis Almagro has accepted.

https://computo.oep.org.bo/


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: kelestian on October 23, 2019, 04:20:03 AM
And OF COURSE russian officials are involved in this (particularly, Rosatom). Goddamn, do they want participate in ALL world elections?

https://www.proekt.media/investigation/morales-rosatom-eng/


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: FredLindq on October 23, 2019, 05:19:03 AM
Can some one tell me more about CC (FRI led list)?!
Is FRI now more centrist than it used to be and what more parties are on that list?

What happened to Samuel Dorina and UN? They did not run at all?

Does have a party have to have a presidential candidate in order to stand in the congressional elections?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 24, 2019, 07:29:14 PM
The OAS and EU are now asking that a second round be held; Evo’s still saying he won. I’m seeing different numbers in different places, some showing Evo winning outright and others not.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on October 25, 2019, 01:11:09 PM
So the "official" results say no runoff. Yikes. I thought Evo was the lesser evil, but if he truly had a hand in rigging the votes he has to go.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Simfan34 on November 09, 2019, 06:37:33 PM
Armed forces declares neutrality, says will "not clash with the people" after police "mutiny", protestors seize national television headquarters. (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/09/world/americas/bolivian-police-morales.html)

It's a step short of "the army stands with the people", but it's never a good sign for a regime when the army declines to reiterate its support.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong on November 09, 2019, 10:06:39 PM
Erica Chenoweth says when the police and military start to side with the protestors, regime change is imminent. Hopefully Bolivia doesn't fall apart because of this. Evo was no Chavez or Maduro, he hasn't been nearly as bad.


Title: BREAKING: Bolivia elections, Date Unknown: Round Two of the First Round
Post by: Alex on November 10, 2019, 06:52:51 AM
The Organization of American States called today for new elections to be held after stating to have found serious irregularities in the results and clear manipulations of the voting system and it could not verify the result.

BREAKING NEWS: Evo said a few minutes ago that he will follow the OAS recommendations and there will be a new first electoral round and that all members of the Electoral Court will be replaced by new ones chosen by the Legislative Assembly

Also a couple of days ago, the electoral auditing company (Ethical Hacking) selected by the Electoral Court to supervise the electronic part vote counting said that they couldn't "vouch for the integrity of the electoral results" due to a lot of irregularities and weaknesses of the systems they had to work with


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong on November 10, 2019, 09:10:05 AM
Let's see if this actually solves anything. Also, the OP should probably be changed lol


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on November 10, 2019, 02:35:35 PM
Good on Evo for doing the right thing. Now everybody needs to calm down and deescalate the situation. Make sure the authority in charge of the election is fully independent, and let it run its course.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Simfan34 on November 10, 2019, 03:11:50 PM
Army chief calls for Morales to resign! (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50369591?ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=news_central)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on November 10, 2019, 03:51:24 PM
The President of the Chamber of Deputies and several government ministers have resigned, and the head of the national police has also called for Morales to go.

Rumors indicate Morales may have left the capital in the Presidential plane, destination unknown (likely to be one of his electoral bastions).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on November 10, 2019, 03:53:08 PM
Morales has resigned! He's at a live press conference now.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: kaoras on November 10, 2019, 04:00:31 PM
Morales has resigned! He's at a live press conference now.

If only somebody else would have the courage to resign instead of dragging his country to the mud for weeks.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: jaichind on November 10, 2019, 04:01:46 PM
If he had just accepted a second round he had a real shot at winning.  Instead he is now all washed up.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: kaoras on November 10, 2019, 04:03:20 PM
If he had just accepted a second round he had a real shot at winning.  Instead he is now all washed up.

Hilarious indeed.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on November 10, 2019, 05:44:14 PM
Apparently no one knows who will rule the country until the new elections take place or when those elections will be held (there are rumors that it would take until the second hald of next year)

The Vice President, the President of the Senate (and Provisional President for a few hours) and the President of the House of Representatives also resigned

It's not known whether the Armed Forces will take the handle of the government or if the president of the Supreme Court will assume as president, as established by the Acephaly Law. The vice-president of the Senate (from the Democrats opposition party) claims that she should be the next provisional president

Fernando Camacho, the public face of the protests, will try to get to agree with the Armed forced to form a transitional government

The top prosecutor has ordered the arrest of all members of the Electoral Court


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on November 10, 2019, 06:28:53 PM
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Simfan34 on November 10, 2019, 06:37:50 PM
Apparently no one knows who will rule the country until the new elections take place or when those elections will be held (there are rumors that it would take until the second hald of next year)

The Vice President  and the President of the Senate (and Provisional President) also resigned

It's not known whether the Armed Forces will take the handle of the government or if the president of the Supreme Court will assume as president, as established by the Acephaly Law. The vice-president of the Senate (from the Democrats opposition party) claims that she should be the next provisional president

The top prosecutor has ordered the arrest of all members of the Electoral Court

I highly doubt the head of the Armed Forces would formally take the mantle of power, as blatant coups have fallen out of fashion. What is more likely is that someone completely impotent (like the President of  the Supreme Court) formally takes power whilst the army runs things behind the scenes.

History will doubtlessly judge Morales favorably for not clinging to power at the expense of his country's wellbeing.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on November 10, 2019, 07:41:21 PM
Mexico has offered Evo Morales political asylum

Jeanine Añez, the aforementioned Vice President of the Senate, has proclaimed herself as the next provisional president


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on November 10, 2019, 08:28:20 PM
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on November 10, 2019, 08:37:05 PM
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on November 10, 2019, 08:49:18 PM
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.

Shame how Evo’s ego was too big to let literally anyone else in his party be President after 21F. It’s entirely his fault that his accomplishments are in danger now.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Edu on November 10, 2019, 09:21:30 PM
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.


LOL


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: LabourJersey on November 10, 2019, 10:22:22 PM
Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 10, 2019, 10:33:24 PM
Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: H. Ross Peron on November 10, 2019, 10:35:57 PM
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.

Shame how Evo’s ego was too big to let literally anyone else in his party be President after 21F. It’s entirely his fault that his accomplishments are in danger now.

I agree, but he may have been afraid of a betrayal by his successor as was the case in Ecuador where Moreno not only took a u-turn in policy but also investigated his predecessor for corruption.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on November 10, 2019, 10:48:44 PM
Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?

According to El País, he did. Williams Kaliman is close to him. https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573426533_008486.html


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on November 10, 2019, 10:54:13 PM
Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?

Oddly enough, General Kaliman - head of the Armed Forces - was seen as a staunch Morales loyalist, which is why his decisions not to intervene at first (against the police revolt) and later to force Morales's resignation was stunning.

I read an article which suggested that although Morales had loyalists leading both institutions he had A. offended the army through measures such as political indoctrination, B. offended most of the police by not taking their side over an internal dispute with their leadership, and C. didn't count on the military not wanting to be responsible of a bloodbath if they were used to crush the protests (when the military did attempt this in a separate instance a few years ago - before Evo -, the military leadership was tried and sent to jail in the aftermath).

That sounded somewhat reasonable, though the explanation may be found elsewhere.

Note: The article I mentioned is the one that was cited before my post.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Cinemark on November 10, 2019, 10:58:54 PM
Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven

They're going off of past history. But so far, there is nothing to pinpoint US involvement in any of this.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 10, 2019, 11:40:53 PM
Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven

They're going off of past history. But so far, there is nothing to pinpoint US involvement in any of this.

If anything, there seems to be a popular contagion effect going on in Latin America right now: Brazil, Chile, now Bolivia.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on November 11, 2019, 12:09:33 AM
Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven

They're going off of past history. But so far, there is nothing to pinpoint US involvement in any of this.

If anything, there seems to be a popular contagion effect going on in Latin America right now: Brazil, Chile, now Bolivia.

Ecuador, Haiti, Peru.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on November 11, 2019, 07:06:48 AM
Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?

Oddly enough, General Kaliman - head of the Armed Forces - was seen as a staunch Morales loyalist, which is why his decisions not to intervene at first (against the police revolt) and later to force Morales's resignation was stunning.

I read an article which suggested that although Morales had loyalists leading both institutions he had A. offended the army through measures such as political indoctrination, B. offended most of the police by not taking their side over an internal dispute with their leadership, and C. didn't count on the military not wanting to be responsible of a bloodbath if they were used to crush the protests (when the military did attempt this in a separate instance a few years ago - before Evo -, the military leadership was tried and sent to jail in the aftermath).

That sounded somewhat reasonable, though the explanation may be found elsewhere.

Note: The article I mentioned is the one that was cited before my post.

Evo also lost the support from a few other vital sectors in the last few days, e.g. yesterday the Central Over Boliviana, the main trade union confederation and a vital ally of Morales, asked for Evo to resign and for the members of the Electoral Court to be removed and put in trial a few hours before the statements saying basically the same things


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 11, 2019, 08:36:01 AM
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Umengus on November 11, 2019, 08:43:11 AM
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: StateBoiler on November 11, 2019, 04:30:45 PM
Argie from another board I'm on describing this:

Quote
Bolivian Constitution precluded him to run for a 4th consecutive mandate.

Tried to reform the Constitution, didn't get enough votes.

Tried to have a referendum in order to get "popular support" to run for office again anyway: lost it.

Then claimed the results were "inconclusive enough" and decided to run for office again anyway.

At election day, all indications were that he wouldn't have enough votes to win in the first round. Then the vote counting got "suspended" for 24 hours. At the end of that period the had just gotten enough votes to avoid the 2nd round, by less than half a percentage point.

The protesters started to take the streets.

OEA's (American States' Organization) international overseeing commission emmited a report calling the election process "riddled by corruption, vote rigging and inconsistencies".

Protest increased. Paramilitary groups backing Morales started attacking the protests - while the Police just vanished -, ending with several injured and killed.

Several of his Ministers resigned, the Parliament tried to vote him off but the majority blocked the vote, and consecuently the President of the Senate resigned.

Up to this point, nothing seemed to be wrong for most of our Latin American "leaders".   

Finally, COB (the Union's Central Organization), the Head of the Police and the Head of the Army, all called for him to resign, while Morales was blabbering about a CIA plot. Morales finally resigned, while claiming there are assasins looking for him. And all of the sudden, to all the leftist parties in South America, it's a "coup d'État". 

Today, in Argentina, there's a standard 10.000 strong march in support of Morales, claiming president Macri "organized" the coup against Morales, and therefore he has to leave office NOW!!!! (instead of on December 10th, when his mandate ends).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 11, 2019, 06:34:24 PM
Pretty much out of the cards now, but Morales even win a new election?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 11, 2019, 07:09:00 PM
Pretty much out of the cards now, but Morales even win a new election?

Of course not. They made it clear that they aren't going to allow an indigenous President ever again.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on November 11, 2019, 09:10:52 PM
Morales will soon be traveling to Mexico, the country that offered him political asylum, in a Mexican military plane

He said in Twitter that he'll soon be back to Bolivia and he'll be stronger than ever, but in cases like this who knows what will happen


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on November 12, 2019, 11:06:28 AM
Pretty much out of the cards now, but Morales even win a new election?

Of course not. They made it clear that they aren't going to allow an indigenous President ever again.

“They” weren’t able to stop him the first three times, so clearly “they” can’t be too influential. The only thing that’s changed here is the referendum and everything that came after that.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on November 12, 2019, 11:24:41 PM
Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on November 12, 2019, 11:28:17 PM
Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.

Is the constitutional court a relatively impartial institution in Bolivia or is it a de facto third chamber of Congress like the SCOTUS?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on November 13, 2019, 11:20:40 AM
Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.

Is the constitutional court a relatively impartial institution in Bolivia or is it a de facto third chamber of Congress like the SCOTUS?

This is the same court that allowed Evo to run in the first place by overturning the 21F referendum, which brought (naturally) many accusations of politicization from the opposition. This feels to me like something of a John Roberts type situation, trying to avoid the appearance of just being another branch of masismo, but I think someone else could answer that better than I could.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: rob in cal on November 16, 2019, 01:12:46 PM
  Wonder how Putin feels about this, as he has been fairly pro-Morales I believe.  I saw an article recently about alleged Russian pro-Morales election interference fwtw.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: bigic on November 16, 2019, 02:55:51 PM
  Wonder how Putin feels about this, as he has been fairly pro-Morales I believe.  I saw an article recently about alleged Russian pro-Morales election interference fwtw.
AFAIK they now recognize the new temporary government, but some Latin American countries still don't.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Intell on November 17, 2019, 07:27:40 AM
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)

People could have shown that they disliked that by not voting for him in the Bolivian election.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: bigic on November 17, 2019, 08:26:42 AM
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)

People could have shown that they disliked that by not voting for him in the Bolivian election.
Which they did! And the early counts and numbers from independent election observers have shown that Morales would face an opponent in the second round. The later count was rigged (after no results being counted for 24 hours, which is suspicious) so that the difference between Morales and his main opponent exceeds 10% - which is according to the Bolivian electoral law enough for avoiding the second round.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 17, 2019, 12:58:33 PM
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)

People could have shown that they disliked that by not voting for him in the Bolivian election.

If right wingers supported coups when leaders contravene their country's constitutional norms there would hardly be any right wing governments.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Intell on November 17, 2019, 11:21:54 PM
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)

People could have shown that they disliked that by not voting for him in the Bolivian election.
Which they did! And the early counts and numbers from independent election observers have shown that Morales would face an opponent in the second round. The later count was rigged (after no results being counted for 24 hours, which is suspicious) so that the difference between Morales and his main opponent exceeds 10% - which is according to the Bolivian electoral law enough for avoiding the second round.

Later votes were from rural areas that overwhelmingly favour morales anyway.

Also morales offered to have another election, but the coup happened nonetheless to benefit the interests of Bolivia.

This is by far less worse than what happened in 2000 that got Bush elected in which he refused a recount.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on November 23, 2019, 10:44:29 PM
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run. No official date has been set AFAIK, but the new elections will take place somewhere in the next 120 days (and it has to be in 2020)

The results of the October elections are now officially void

Camacho said he may run for president


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on November 23, 2019, 10:47:05 PM
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run. No official date has been set AFAIK, but the new elections will take place somewhere in the next 120 days (and it has to be in 2020)

The results of the October elections are now officially void

Camacho said he may run for president

Calling it now, these elections are going to be rigged in favor of the right. And the OAS will have nothing to say about it.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Helsinkian on November 24, 2019, 07:11:06 AM
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run.

So Morales's party threw him under the bus?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on November 24, 2019, 07:39:47 AM
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run.

So Morales's party threw him under the bus?

Evo himself said that he wouldn't run for president this time many days before anyone else in the party said anything about his candidacy


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on November 24, 2019, 03:11:01 PM
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run. No official date has been set AFAIK, but the new elections will take place somewhere in the next 120 days (and it has to be in 2020)

The results of the October elections are now officially void

Mini update, Jeanine Añez has signed this bill, new elections will take place sometime between January [not very likely due to summer holidays] and May 2020. If there's a second round it will be less than 45 days after the first round

No official date has yet been established


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on December 03, 2019, 04:42:41 PM
The provisional government wants the first round of the elections to take place in March

Confirmed candidates:

Carlos Mesa - Gustavo Pedraza (same ticket as in the October elections)

Chi Hyung Chung, now without the support of the parties which were backing him that are now supporting newcomer Camacho

Luis Fernando Camacho, probably with Potosí (a southwestern and generally more pro-Evo department) protest leader Marco Pumari as VP candidate

Probable MAS candidates:

Andrónico Rodríguez, coca-leaf trade unionist

Adriana Salvatierra, provisional president for a couple of hours and former senator (she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

David Choquehuanca (trade unionist, Minister for International Relations 2006-2007, since then General Secretary of the ALBA [the Venezuela-led anti NAFTA/FTAA project])-Luis Arce (Economy Minister 2006-2017)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on December 03, 2019, 08:03:45 PM
(she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

What a polite way to put it.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: emotional hardcore on December 03, 2019, 08:30:38 PM
I'm kind of a bit torn on who I'd support, I actually was kind of rooting for Mesa last time just because Morales was in office for too long and had turned authoritarian though he did accomplish a lot of good early in his tenure. However since it won't be Morales on the ballot and the circumstances since then...it's kind of hard to root against MAS. I don't think Mesa is a terrible guy even though he's not a great fit ideologically for me (and honestly if he wins he'd probably still be the best South American President even if merely by default), but under these circumstances he could be indebted to terrible people.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on December 03, 2019, 09:15:45 PM
I'm kind of a bit torn on who I'd support, I actually was kind of rooting for Mesa last time just because Morales was in office for too long and had turned authoritarian though he did accomplish a lot of good early in his tenure. However since it won't be Morales on the ballot and the circumstances since then...it's kind of hard to root against MAS. I don't think Mesa is a terrible guy even though he's not a great fit ideologically for me (and honestly if he wins he'd probably still be the best South American President even if merely by default), but under these circumstances he could be indebted to terrible people.

I pretty much agree with this (even though my opinion of Mesa wasn't as positive as yours)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on December 03, 2019, 09:28:28 PM
Not a very impressive line-up, that's for sure. MAS or Camacho winning would probably just start new problems of its own or make current ones worse (and/or validate their respective morally questionable actions and/or statements), and the less said about Chi Hyung Chung the better (gods, I wish Evangelical pastors never ran for President in Latin America).

So yeah, Mesa seems like the least depressing option. Which is depressing on its own, I might say.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lord Halifax on December 04, 2019, 07:25:10 AM

Probable MAS candidates:

Andrónico Rodríguez, coca-leaf trade unionist

Adriana Salvatierra, provisional president for a couple of hours and former senator (she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

David Choquehuanca (trade unionist, Minister for International Relations 2006-2007, since then General Secretary of the ALBA [the Venezuela-led anti NAFTA/FTAA project])-Luis Arce (Economy Minister 2006-2017)

Has Arce agreed to be Choquehuanca's running mate? Or is he a fourth potential candidate.

David Choquehuanca is 58, Arce is 56 and Salvatierra & Rodríguez are both "kids" around 30. Do you think MAS will prefer a young candidate or someone from Morales' generation?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on December 04, 2019, 04:19:41 PM

Probable MAS candidates:

Andrónico Rodríguez, coca-leaf trade unionist

Adriana Salvatierra, provisional president for a couple of hours and former senator (she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

David Choquehuanca (trade unionist, Minister for International Relations 2006-2007, since then General Secretary of the ALBA [the Venezuela-led anti NAFTA/FTAA project])-Luis Arce (Economy Minister 2006-2017)

Has Arce agreed to be Choquehuanca's running mate? Or is he a fourth potential candidate.

David Choquehuanca is 58, Arce is 56 and Salvatierra & Rodríguez are both "kids" around 30. Do you think MAS will prefer a young candidate or someone from Morales' generation?

The article I got it from said that Arce may be Choquehuanca's VP candidate, but a lot of other articles say they'd run separate


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on December 05, 2019, 06:41:05 AM
Yesterday the OAS released their final 96-pages-long report on the audits of the October elections

Their "conclusion is that there was "intentional manipulation" and "serious irregularities" that make it impossible to validate the results originally issued by the Bolivian electoral authorities."

"The report confirms that the intentional manipulation of the elections took place in two areas. First, the audit detected changes in the minutes and the falsification of the signatures of poll officials. Second, it was found that in the processing of the results the data flow was redirected to two hidden servers and not controlled by personnel of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which made it possible to manipulate data and falsify minutes. "These servers, and the direct results from the votes "counted" in these, were also hidden from the auditing company

"To this are added serious irregularities, such as the lack of protection of the acts and the loss of sensitive material. The report also details a significant number of errors and indices."

"The audit findings also reveal the partiality of the electoral authority. The members of the TSE, who were tasked with ensuring the legality and integrity of the process, allowed the flow of information to be diverted to external servers, destroying all confidence in the electoral process."

The conclusion of the report is that “the manipulations and irregularities indicated do not allow for certainty about the margin of victory of the candidate Evo Morales over the candidate Carlos Mesa. On the contrary, based on the overwhelming evidence found, what can be affirmed is that there has been a series of intentional operations aimed at altering the will expressed at the polls.”

OAS Press Release: https://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-109/19

Complete Report (in Spanish): http://www.oas.org/es/sap/deco/Informe-Bolivia-2019/


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on December 08, 2019, 04:51:42 PM
Mini update:

Camacho confirmed that Pumari won't be his VP candidate , and the latter may run on his own for the presidency


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on December 08, 2019, 04:54:19 PM
Pumari won't be Camacho's VP (allegedly due to some policy differences and because Pumari wanted to lead the ticket), so it appears likely that both of them will run for President instead. Camacho has picked up the endorsement of several minor parties, MAS is yet to pick a candidate, but they've chosen Morales to be their "campaign chief".

Also, the first poll came up, though the results don't seem very reliable:

Camacho: 16%
Pumari: 16%
Rodriguez (MAS): 16%
Mesa: 14%
Chi Hyung Chung: 10%


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on January 01, 2020, 01:07:57 PM
Lmao Camacho and Pumari are back together again. Latest poll had Rodríguez at 23%, Mesa at 21%, Camacho at 13%, and Pumari at 10%; MAS percentage dropped significantly when substituting David Choquehuanca, the apparent other most popular potential MAS candidate, for Rodriguez (down to about 10%) but that’s probably more due to name recognition than anything else.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on January 01, 2020, 07:15:58 PM
MAS will announce their presidential candidate on on January 19



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on January 03, 2020, 08:48:16 PM
The Electoral Court has finally set the date for the new elections, May 3


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on January 13, 2020, 02:31:52 PM
Well things seem to be heating up (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-media/britain-secretly-funded-reuters-in-1960s-and-1970s-documents-idUSKBN1ZC20H)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on January 15, 2020, 06:24:25 PM
Well things seem to be heating up (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-media/britain-secretly-funded-reuters-in-1960s-and-1970s-documents-idUSKBN1ZC20H)

How is this related to anything happening in Bolivia?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on January 15, 2020, 07:00:27 PM
The split of the opposition vote continues with the entry of former President Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002, Hugo Banzer's VP, lost the election to Evo) and Felix Patzi (was Morales's Education Minister in 2006-2007, went from MAS to the opposition), despite the current government's efforts to forge a united front against MAS.

Morales has made the news from Argentina with the leaking of a tape, in which Morales discusses the need to form "popular armed militias" (quoting Venezuela and Maduro as a direct example). Unsurprisingly, this has sparked quite a bit of controversy.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on January 17, 2020, 05:27:38 PM
MAS officially endorsed a David Choquehuanca - Andrónico Rodríguez presidential ticket

Party leaders and allies will meet with Morales, here in Buenos Aires, in a couple of days to make the official announcement


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: RodPresident on January 17, 2020, 05:55:43 PM
The split of the opposition vote continues with the entry of former President Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002, Hugo Banzer's VP, lost the election to Evo) and Felix Patzi (was Morales's Education Minister in 2006-2007, went from MAS to the opposition), despite the current government's efforts to forge a united front against MAS.

Morales has made the news from Argentina with the leaking of a tape, in which Morales discusses the need to form "popular armed militias" (quoting Venezuela and Maduro as a direct example). Unsurprisingly, this has sparked quite a bit of controversy.
Opposition's pulverization can help Mesa's speech to be lesser evil as more electable candidate against MAS guy in runoff?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on January 19, 2020, 06:55:33 PM
There were some last minute changes as Choquehuanca has now been demoted to VP candidate, and Luis Arce Will be the presidential candidate in the Evo-approved and now totally official MAS ballot

Morales said that Andrónico Rodriguez (30) is too young (read: inexperienced) to be president and that he is surprised that Andrónico was leading the polls. Rodriguez also didn't assists to the meeting with Evo in Buenos Aires, citing security reasons, which may have influenced the final decision


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on January 19, 2020, 09:37:39 PM
There were some last minute changes as Choquehuanca has now been demoted to VP candidate, and Luis Arce Will be the presidential candidate in the Evo-approved and now totally official MAS ballot

Morales said that Andrónico Rodriguez (30) is too young (read: inexperienced) to be president and that he is surprised that Andrónico was leading the polls. Rodriguez also didn't assists to the meeting with Evo in Buenos Aires, citing security reasons, which may have influenced the final decision
If MAS loses because of the further damage from this spat, it’s going to be on Evo for losing the country to ruin.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on January 24, 2020, 10:47:24 PM
And, in (yet) another plot twist, President Añez announces she's running for a full term. The additional split of the opposition vote aside - are they actively trying to lose? - Añez appears to have started with her bid with several relevant former Mesa supporters behind her, so it appears Mesa will be the biggest loser from this.

Current field:
(Used the colors Bolivian parties currently use)

Luis Arce / David Choquehuanca (MAS)
Jeanine Añez / TBD (MDS)
Carlos Mesa / Gustavo Pedraza (CC)
Luis Fernando Camacho / Marcos Pumarí (Backed by PDC, ADN, UCS)
Chi Hyun Chung / TBD (Independent, former PDC)
Jorge Quiroga / TBD (MNR)
Félix Patzi / TBD (MTS)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: FredLindq on January 25, 2020, 04:57:10 AM
Was not Camacho the candidate for MNR until now? And why is former ADN member Quoirga candidate for MNR now?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on January 27, 2020, 08:03:50 AM
And, in (yet) another plot twist, President Añez announces she's running for a full term. The additional split of the opposition vote aside - are they actively trying to lose? - Añez appears to have started with her bid with several relevant former Mesa supporters behind her, so it appears Mesa will be the biggest loser from this.

Current field:
(Used the colors Bolivian parties currently use)

Luis Arce / David Choquehuanca (MAS)
Jeanine Añez / TBD (MDS)
Carlos Mesa / Gustavo Pedraza (CC)
Luis Fernando Camacho / Marcos Pumarí (Backed by PDC, ADN, UCS)
Chi Hyun Chung / TBD (Independent, former PDC)
Jorge Quiroga / TBD (MNR)
Félix Patzi / TBD (MTS)

Mesa is already going on the offensive against Áñez and Morales is loving it.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on February 18, 2020, 01:40:41 PM
Camacho terminated his presidential campaign earlier today and called for unity in the anti-Evo camp


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on February 19, 2020, 01:45:36 PM
And in other news, Evo's candidacy for Senator has been rejected by the Electoral Court, as he doesn't meet the requirement of living in Bolivia (he's still in Argentina)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on February 19, 2020, 02:59:07 PM
All going swimmingly, then?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on February 27, 2020, 09:44:31 AM
What good informative journalism from the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/26/bolivia-dismissed-its-october-elections-fraudulent-our-research-found-no-reason-suspect-fraud/)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: afleitch on February 28, 2020, 08:03:16 AM
Oops. Centrists batting against democracy yet again.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on February 28, 2020, 08:15:21 AM
Oops. Centrists batting against democracy yet again.

As some of us said at the time (and were, predictably, shouted down for it)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: MaxQue on February 28, 2020, 08:54:46 AM
Time and time again, centrists, when forced to choose between socialism and fascism, pick fascism.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on February 28, 2020, 06:38:36 PM
Time and time again, centrists, when forced to choose between socialism and fascism, pick fascism.

Morales is in no way an actual socialist, or even particularly close to being one


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on February 28, 2020, 07:11:21 PM
OK then, "left-populist"?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: bigic on February 28, 2020, 08:47:27 PM
Time and time again, centrists, when forced to choose between socialism and fascism, pick fascism.

Morales is in no way an actual socialist, or even particularly close to being one
And neither is the opposition fascist (or at least most of the opposition).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: MaxQue on February 29, 2020, 10:03:46 AM
Time and time again, centrists, when forced to choose between socialism and fascism, pick fascism.

Morales is in no way an actual socialist, or even particularly close to being one
And neither is the opposition fascist (or at least most of the opposition).

They staged a coup.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: bigic on February 29, 2020, 10:54:08 AM
I don't care if it's a coup if it's against a regime with dubious legitimacy (like Milošević regime at the time of 5. October Serbian democratic revolution).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on February 29, 2020, 12:09:14 PM
Morales had just fairly won an election, as opposed to trying to steal it as Milosovic did, so no.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: bigic on February 29, 2020, 12:32:45 PM
"Fair"?! Mysterious delays in counting, official results not matching results by independent observers...


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on March 01, 2020, 10:31:23 AM

 ‘No evidence of fraud’ in Morales poll victory, say US researchers (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/no-evidence-of-in-morales-poll-victory-say-us-researchers-bolivia)
Quote
A row over the legitimacy of Bolivia’s longest-serving leader, Evo Morales, has been reignited after researchers in the US questioned allegations that fraud was used to help the country’s leader of 14 years win the last election.

Writing in the Washington Post, the researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s election data and science lab have entered what has become a fraught debate about Morales’s legacy and whether he was forced to step down due to an attempt to manipulate the vote or, rather, pushed out as part of a military coup.

“There is not any statistical evidence of fraud that we can find,” wrote John Curiel and Jack R Williams, both from MIT, adding that the conclusions of an audit by the Organization of American States “would appear deeply flawed”.
So the only people contesting electoral fraud are the OAS, mired in connections with the American government, and local plantation and mining barons along with their “researchers“.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on March 22, 2020, 12:58:27 PM
The elections won't take place on May 3 due to the coronavirus epidemic, no new date has been set



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2020, 01:29:55 PM
Do you think Jeanine Añez and those supporting her will take advantage of the coronavirus crisis to enforce an authoritarian way out?

?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on March 22, 2020, 03:48:16 PM
Oh God, now that's a terrifying thought.

Is there actually an outbreak in Bolivia, or are they just afraid one might come?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on March 23, 2020, 01:05:56 AM
Do you think Jeanine Añez and those supporting her will take advantage of the coronavirus crisis to enforce an authoritarian way out?

?

Most presidents in the region (with the notable and surprising exception of Bolsonaro's total negligence) is getting more authoritarian by the day


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on March 23, 2020, 01:08:15 AM
Oh God, now that's a terrifying thought.

Is there actually an outbreak in Bolivia, or are they just afraid one might come?

Only 27 confirmed cases and no deaths, but Bolivia's healthcare system has never been particularly good and I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers are quite a bit higher

But no serious outbreak


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on March 23, 2020, 05:22:28 AM
Do you think Jeanine Añez and those supporting her will take advantage of the coronavirus crisis to enforce an authoritarian way out?

Most presidents in the region (with the notable and surprising exception of Bolsonaro's total negligence) is getting more authoritarian by the day

A friend from Argentina told me last night the government was thinking about implementining ''state of emergency as prophylaxis'', ehich is not very different from the ''state of alarm'' we have in Spain but anyway it's something we wouldn't have accepted naturally weeks before. But Alberto Fernández and Pedro Sánchez have the legitimacy to implement emergency measures, which is not the case of Jeanine Añez.

The implications of a state of rmergency enforced by a president with problems of legitimacy and the army are worrisome, to say the least. Hopefully the position of Lady Coup is not very consolidated

(Btw my friend told me governors are sidelining Bolsonaro)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on March 24, 2020, 09:33:00 AM
I won't forget all the "highly sensible and rational" liberals defending the coup here in a hurry.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Alex on April 03, 2020, 10:29:31 PM
The Electoral Court proposed (on March 26, but I wasn't paying attention for obvious reasons) that the elections should take place between June 7 and September 6, as always Congress has to set the actual date


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Quincy Kelley on April 30, 2020, 03:05:51 PM
Anez still the President & I wonder if she can somehow win the special election ?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on April 30, 2020, 04:25:01 PM
Anez still the President & I wonder if she can somehow win the special election ?

I sincerely hope not.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on April 30, 2020, 04:36:43 PM
Anez still the President & I wonder if she can somehow win the special election ?
They’re in the process of purging the civil service and putting their own people in, so I don’t doubt that they have the infrastructure to conduct voter fraud enough to win.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on May 22, 2020, 10:27:22 PM

Posts and stories processing the same thing have been circulating a while this past week or so. Hopefully democracy can be restored from the hands of the putschists.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on May 22, 2020, 11:55:20 PM
But remember folks, Morales is the real authoritarian. :)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on May 23, 2020, 01:41:29 AM
But remember folks, Morales is the real authoritarian. :)

He expanded the size of government. :(


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on May 23, 2020, 06:06:14 AM
Again, lets hear from all the "centrists" and "liberals" who supported this monstrosity.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: bigic on May 23, 2020, 11:36:24 AM
Lol I am so owned
Seriously, is there any other source for the claim that Añez is attempting a military coup?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on May 23, 2020, 12:54:37 PM
Lol I am so owned
Seriously, is there any other source for the claim that Añez is attempting a military coup?
I’ll try and find a news article on this that is definitive. Most I’ve heard and seen is from editorials and twitter personalities.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Laki on May 23, 2020, 01:12:38 PM
I won't forget all the "highly sensible and rational" liberals defending the coup here in a hurry.
Me2

#PrayForBolivia


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on May 23, 2020, 04:18:07 PM
New Archbishop of La Paz today. He's from an 80% indigenous area, went to seminary in Cochabamba, and was previously bishop of an almost entirely indigenous mission area up in the Andes. Pretty sure the previous guy supported Añez's (initial) coup.

Not that it's likely to change anything, but it does make one wonder if a message is being sent.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on May 23, 2020, 06:34:27 PM
Lol I am so owned
Seriously, is there any other source for the claim that Añez is attempting a military coup?
I’ll try and find a news article on this that is definitive. Most I’ve heard and seen is from editorials and twitter personalities.
Most sources I’ve seen that are not political editorializations or newsletters from socialist groups aren’t reporting on the political happenings of Bolivia. Still, what I am seeing is that the government has still refused to let an election be held even as the Congress of Bolivia and grassroots organizations demands it to be held in a timely manner.

Such groups include farmers organizations as seen in this editorialized piece here (https://www.entornointeligente.com/bolivia-cochabamba-six-farmers-organizations-demand-elections/amp/)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2020, 09:47:39 AM
I've read the military is pressing the MAS controlled Senate to approve some promotions (otherwise those men in arms will promote themselves) , Jeanine Añez is surrounded by corruption scandals and even Carlos Mesa says that she's bringing the country to collapse. The situation of Bolivia under this illegitimate president is deeply disturbing, to say the least


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: SInNYC on June 09, 2020, 08:35:10 AM
Well well, it turns out that the original OAS report that claimed fraud in vote counting was based on faulty statistical analysis - see https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/world/americas/bolivia-election-evo-morales.html.
If you dont remember, this was the one that made Morales agree to a new election, and an eventual coup leading to  right-wing dictator Anez.

Now the OAS is saying its moot - "Statistics don’t prove or disprove fraud. Hard evidence like falsified statements of polls and hidden I.T. structures do. And that is what we found". And the article says that the OAS consultant who did the work "did not share his methods or data with the authors of [this new study], despite repeated requests".


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on June 09, 2020, 08:44:13 AM
Makes what happened - and the almost gleeful collusion of so many in it - all the more shameful.

Some of us are not going to forget all this in a hurry.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on June 13, 2020, 05:55:33 PM



Title: Bolivia election:
Post by: ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed on September 03, 2020, 09:55:26 PM
I think Anez will win.


Title: Re: Bolivia election:
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on September 04, 2020, 07:03:26 AM
Thank you for your input.

(though you maybe meant not win, but "win"?)


Title: Re: Bolivia election:
Post by: ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed on September 04, 2020, 12:20:09 PM
Thank you for your input.

(though you maybe meant not win, but "win"?)

It might be rigged for Luis Arce.


Title: Re: Bolivia election:
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on September 04, 2020, 12:39:44 PM
Thank you for your input.

(though you maybe meant not win, but "win"?)

It might be rigged for Luis Arce.

Áñez is going to rig it for MAS?


Title: Re: Bolivia election:
Post by: Velasco on September 04, 2020, 01:23:49 PM
Merge please

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=340100.0


Title: Re: Bolivia election:
Post by: Quislings Anonymous on September 04, 2020, 01:29:44 PM
Will it be an election or an election type event?


Title: Re: Bolivia election:
Post by: PSOL on September 04, 2020, 02:52:01 PM
We’ll find out the day of the polls.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on September 17, 2020, 01:06:19 PM
There is a fresh poll with some 16,000 respondents, conducted by university organizations and some radio stations. It's apparently independent and possibly as reliable as you can get

Raw vote percentage (candidates over 1%)

Luis Arce (MAS) 29 2%

Carlos Mesa (CC) 19%

Luis Fernando Camacho (Creemos) 10.4%

Jeanine Añez 7.7%

Chi Hyun Chung (FPV) 3.2%

Jorge Quiroga (Libres 21) 2%

7.1 % will cast blank ballots; 10.6% opted for null votes; 9.8% don't know or don't answer

The estimation of valid votes is the following:

Arce 40.3%, Mesa 26.2%, Camacho 14 4%, Añez 10 6%, Chi Hyun Chung 4.4%, Quiroga 2.8%

Luis Arce and Carlos Mesa would qualify for a second round




https://www.la-razon.com/nacional/2020/09/16/encuesta-a-16-000-personas-en-el-pais-ratifica-a-luis-arce-como-posible-ganador-de-los-comicios/



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed on September 17, 2020, 01:09:53 PM
I hope Añez wins.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 17, 2020, 05:14:37 PM

The estimation of valid votes is the following:

Arce 40.3%, Mesa 26.2%, Camacho 14 4%, Añez 10 6%, Chi Hyun Chung 4.4%, Quiroga 2.8%

Luis Arce and Carlos Mesa would qualify for a second round


There wouldn't be a second round on those numbers since Arce is above 40% and more than 10 points ahead of Mesa.


Title: Re: Bolivia election:
Post by: America tried to assassinate Fidel Castro 638 times on September 17, 2020, 05:19:48 PM

If Anez wins, the latter.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed on September 17, 2020, 05:23:16 PM
I think Añez will do way better than what the polls say and win.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on September 17, 2020, 05:49:16 PM

The estimation of valid votes is the following:

Arce 40.3%, Mesa 26.2%, Camacho 14 4%, Añez 10 6%, Chi Hyun Chung 4.4%, Quiroga 2.8%

Luis Arce and Carlos Mesa would qualify for a second round




There wouldn't be a second round on those numbers since Arce is above 40% and more than 10 points ahead of Mesa.

Right, I forgot that when posting. Thank you for the correction


I think Añez will do way better than what the polls say and win.

Your faith is worthy of a better cause, but hope is the last to die



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: America tried to assassinate Fidel Castro 638 times on September 17, 2020, 05:58:02 PM
I think Añez will do way better than what the polls say and win.

We got it the first three times you posted it.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on September 17, 2020, 06:16:24 PM
There's been rumors today that Añez is preparing to drop out of the race to give Mesa a better chance against Arce and MAS. It's been alleged the decision was taken, but nothing confirmed yet (wouldn't be really surprised if it didn't turn out to be true).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on September 17, 2020, 07:09:43 PM
It's been confirmed, Añez is dropping out.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: GALeftist on September 17, 2020, 07:34:02 PM
I think Añez will do way better than what the polls say and win.

Liek dis if u cri evry tiem


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: America tried to assassinate Fidel Castro 638 times on September 17, 2020, 08:07:19 PM
I think Añez will do way better than what the polls say and win.

Liek dis if u cri evry tiem

Lmao


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on September 17, 2020, 08:11:12 PM
It's been confirmed, Añez is dropping out.

I have just heard that in the news. Añez has also declared the state of emergency to tackle the Chaco wildfires. Evo Morales refused to do so during the terrible wildfires past year; his management of the crisis was possibly a contributing factor to his fall. The state of emergency allows international aid


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on September 18, 2020, 06:58:29 AM
I think Añez will do way better than what the polls say and win.

We got it the first three times you posted it.

They won't be posting it any more, though :P


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on September 29, 2020, 11:35:36 PM


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on October 11, 2020, 04:04:52 PM
And another one bites the dust, former President Jorge Quiroga has also withdrawn, citing the need to consolidate the anti-MAS vote behind Mesa. It's only a week until the first round.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 11, 2020, 04:59:11 PM
So the right are a bit worried they might lose?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on October 12, 2020, 11:42:27 PM
So the right are a bit worried they might lose?


It is quite plausible they won’t have to rig it that bad in order to get ahead in a second round.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: jaichind on October 17, 2020, 10:05:24 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-wHQpnSLe8&list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&index=2&t=737s

I saw "Our brand is Crisis" which was about the 2002 election when it came out in 2005.  Mesa shows up several times in the film.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on October 17, 2020, 04:38:11 PM


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Skye on October 17, 2020, 04:46:33 PM
So the right are a bit worried they might lose?

It is quite plausible they won’t have to rig it that bad in order to get ahead in a second round.

Note that, for some baffling reason, the America Elects account's methodology, IIRC, removes undecideds and reallocates the voting %s.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: jaichind on October 18, 2020, 05:41:09 AM
On Saturday night, Bolivia's electoral board announced it would not release preliminary results that were expected on Sunday evening. It is unclear when the first official results will be available.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: kaoras on October 18, 2020, 07:02:40 AM
How convinient


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: SInNYC on October 18, 2020, 12:06:21 PM
And yet the US media was all over accusations that Morales cheated last time, including now-discredited OAS reports.

This time, not a peep. Not even much mention of the election.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 18, 2020, 12:41:19 PM
The number of "liberals" who supported that coup - wallet inspection in its purest form.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 18, 2020, 01:06:03 PM
How do you say "se cayó el sistema" in Quechua?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: jaymichaud on October 18, 2020, 04:26:01 PM
It's going on?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: America tried to assassinate Fidel Castro 638 times on October 18, 2020, 06:54:39 PM
The fix is in. Each member of the Electoral Board has a shiny new Tesla in their garage.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Gulf Coastal Elite on October 18, 2020, 07:17:45 PM
As jaichind mentioned, the rapid count was canceled; it didn't pass reliability tests, so they were concerned about candidates declaring victory based on the results of the rapid count only to not win in the final count. The UN and EU observer missions signed off on the decision to cancel.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Logical on October 18, 2020, 07:45:34 PM
Official results are trickling in
https://computo.oep.org.bo/?fbclid=IwAR0Ouoecvm-kOhiEETej8A300MH2heMo3GCCErFUKGbx8TfKCdAzxpMkOTg


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: kaoras on October 18, 2020, 07:49:20 PM
Bolivia TV stations are saying that the Electoral Court has prohibited taking photos of the electoral acts (vote tallies at each polling station), which is irregular.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 18, 2020, 08:49:39 PM
Talking about Bolivian TV stations, here's a livestream if you want to watch:




Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 18, 2020, 08:54:21 PM
How do you say "se cayó el sistema" in Quechua?

ayyyyyy lmao

()

Tbf they're probably just overloaded by demand to see the results, but still.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 18, 2020, 09:16:57 PM
Some overseas results are in and it shows an interesting pattern of where the rich (and white) expats go vs where the poor emigrants go.  For example, from what's counted so far, MAS is getting 83% in Argentina, 71% in Brazil and 50% in Spain, while CC is getting 73% in Germany and 41% in Italy (but with another 41% to Creemos in the latter).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 18, 2020, 09:40:28 PM
1.5% in, Mesa (CC) leads with 55% against 37% for Arce (MAS) and 7% for Camacho (Creemos).

Now, it's tempting to go for the Mexican comparisions, but it's worth noting that in 1988, after it became clear that the election was rigged, there was a massive, massive wave of indignation and protests, but it eventually came to an end.

However, back then, the PRI had advantages the current de-facto-one-woman-junta doesn't. First, the candidate that the election was rigged against was until recently a member of the PRI and could be negotiated with - indeed, he was negotiated with and accepted the result, though he wasn't very happy with it. Second, Mexicans were used to sham elections and so many people simply shrugged and thought 'okay, it's just one more stolen election, like many others'. Third, there wasn't that much of an ideological (or ethnic!) divide - the opposition presented themselves as "we're like the government, but less authoritarian and more principled!". These things are how they managed to reach a negotiated solution.

Point being, if the right really does win and it becomes clear that it was because the numbers were cut out of whole cloth, something is going to happen, and it's not going to be pretty.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Red Velvet on October 18, 2020, 11:10:24 PM
Lol so you’re telling me that after one year of expelling the guy who won last elections because of a system glitch during vote counting now the same thing is happening again? Don’t tell me they didn’t have time to make this as transparent as possible and didn’t know people would pay attention to every minimal detail...

This is giving me Bolivia 2019/US Iowa Democratic Caucus 2020 vibes. Why no exit polls this time and why does it take so long?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Pyro on October 18, 2020, 11:10:36 PM


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Babeuf on October 18, 2020, 11:14:52 PM
Morales declared victory for MAS based on their internal counts.



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Red Velvet on October 18, 2020, 11:23:13 PM


Wait, what? Is this official or it’s that false poll that was released earlier and going around? I’m so confused by everything going on here.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Pyro on October 18, 2020, 11:25:35 PM


Wait, what? Is this official or it’s that false poll that was released earlier and going around? I’m so confused by everything going on here.

I believe these are the official exit polls.



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Red Velvet on October 18, 2020, 11:31:13 PM


Wait, what? Is this official or it’s that false poll that was released earlier and going around? I’m so confused by everything going on here.

I believe these are the official exit polls.



Thanks, you’re right. It was a different poll indeed that I saw but with not too different numbers, which made me confused.

Well, this shows a clear trend. Let’s see if the actual results will match up lol


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: GALeftist on October 18, 2020, 11:41:42 PM
What with these exit polls, I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of the official results. They're still showing CC leading by over 15 points.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: DL on October 18, 2020, 11:42:26 PM
Does Bolivia require a runoff if no one gets over 50% or is it first past the post?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 18, 2020, 11:46:48 PM
What with these exit polls, I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of the official results. They're still showing CC leading by over 15 points.

They only have 5% of the vote counted.

Does Bolivia require a runoff if no one gets over 50% or is it first past the post?

It requires a runoff unless someone gets over 50% OR over 40% with a 10% margin of victory, which was the key point of debate in 2019 (whether Morales got slightly over or slightly under).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Babeuf on October 18, 2020, 11:47:31 PM
Wow! Anez herself saying Arce is the likely winner. Have to say, I am shocked they are going to let this happen.



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: GALeftist on October 19, 2020, 12:00:27 AM
Everything is going so much better than expected :')

EDIT: If these polls are accurate this also seems to demonstrate fairly significant underpolling of MAS. Any ideas why/how this could be fixed?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: AltWorlder on October 19, 2020, 02:35:57 AM
What was Mesa's actual ceiling?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Gulf Coastal Elite on October 19, 2020, 02:58:04 AM
Everything is going so much better than expected :')

EDIT: If these polls are accurate this also seems to demonstrate fairly significant underpolling of MAS. Any ideas why/how this could be fixed?
MAS does better with rural voters (a category that overlaps substantially with indigenous voters). They tend to be undersampled for obvious technological reasons.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on October 19, 2020, 03:07:25 AM
Apparently Luis Arce is set to win by a landslide and I think it's better this way, because a tight result would have raised suspicions of fraud. Evo Morales and Luis Arce are claiming victory. Carlos Mesa has not conceded yet, but Jeanine Añez congratulated the winners. Hopefully this means there's going to be a peaceful transition.

This election might represent a change of cycle in Latin America. I know that Macri lost a year ago, but Argentina is a case apart


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: afleitch on October 19, 2020, 03:35:10 AM
Today we learned it was a coup after all and that Bolivians wanted socialism back.

The US doesn't put the same effort into regime change as they used to.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2020, 04:42:30 AM
Would not the scale of Arce's victory plant the seeds of future conflict?  Morales would now want to come back and become de facto president.  But Arce will read is mandate which would be greater than the 2019 Morales vote as his own personal mandate and push back against Morales. 


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Red Velvet on October 19, 2020, 04:47:12 AM
Apparently Luis Arce is set to win by a landslide and I think it's better this way, because a tight result would have raised suspicions of fraud. Evo Morales and Luis Arce are claiming victory. Carlos Mesa has not conceded yet, but Jeanine Añez congratulated the winners. Hopefully this means there's going to be a peaceful transition.

This election might represent a change of cycle in Latin America. I know that Macri lost a year ago, but Argentina is a case apart

It’s not only Argentina and Bolivia going Left after a brief period of right wing government. Ecuador has elections next year and the candidate supported by Correa apparently is favored to win; Chile appears to be in a pre-revolutionary state after the protests last year and they’re at it again and burning churches this time, not to mention the constitution referendum and elections where the communist candidate is doing well are stuff yet to come; even Colombia which is the most strongly right wing country of South America appears to very slowly become more Left-friendly...

The trend has already been slowly shifting back and the massive unrest and protests during 2019 in multiple countries kicked the ball. Which ironically, was during the same time the Bolivia 2019 election thing was going on but I saw that as a late manifest of the right wing surge that had already dominated everywhere else in the continent with the exception of Bolivia lol (Venezuela is a special case).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 19, 2020, 05:52:49 AM

Basket case, more like.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Roblox on October 19, 2020, 06:36:50 AM
Honestly surprised they “allowed” MAS to win, but it’s great anyway. This is a fantastic repudiation of an egregious coup.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on October 19, 2020, 07:17:47 AM
It’s not only Argentina and Bolivia going Left after a brief period of right wing government. Ecuador has elections next year and the candidate supported by Correa apparently is favored to win; Chile appears to be in a pre-revolutionary state after the protests last year and they’re at it again and burning churches this time, not to mention the constitution referendum and elections where the communist candidate is doing well are stuff yet to come; even Colombia which is the most strongly right wing country of South America appears to very slowly become more Left-friendly...

The trend has already been slowly shifting back and the massive unrest and protests during 2019 in multiple countries kicked the ball. Which ironically, was during the same time the Bolivia 2019 election thing was going on but I saw that as a late manifest of the right wing surge that had already dominated everywhere else in the continent with the exception of Bolivia lol (Venezuela is a special case).

The peronist movement in Argentina is cross-ideological, while the MAS in Bolivia is leftwing and indigenista. In the case of Argentina, more than a "turn to the left" it happened that peronists came back. Granted, Macri is to the right of Fernandez. But the new president strikes as a pragmatist, not as a leftwing populist in the fashion of CfdK. There were two key factors in the outcome of the Argentinian elections: the crumbling economy and the unity of the peronist movement, with the right-leaning caudillos rallying behind a consensus candidate alongside the Cristina supporters. That's why I said Argentina is a special case.

But yeah, with all the exceptions and national particularities it seems that the conservative trend is reversing. In the case of Bolivia, I'd say the 2019 election was basically a tie between Morales and the opposition. The MAS popularity was eroding because of its long stay in power, some corruption scandals or the Chaco fires, but it was still a robust movement that controlled the legislative chambers. This election proves that the MAS represents a majority of Bolivians. I just hope that Evo Morales steps aside and backs Luis Arce, in order that the latter governs successfully.

Apparently the uribista movement is not in good shape in Colombia. I'd say that the deepest black holes right now are in Venezuela and Brazil. The outcome of the US elections will have a great mpact in the region, obviously
 



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2020, 07:20:58 AM
All these Center-Right candidates dropping out to concentrate the anti-MAS vote only to have MAS win a majority proves the old Nixon adage: "if you hear about a Stop X movement, put your money on X"


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on October 19, 2020, 08:42:43 AM
Today we learned it was a coup after all and that Bolivians wanted socialism back.

The US doesn't put the same effort into regime change as they used to.
This is not exactly quite right. Morales, and the majority of his party, are social democrats apart of the same international as the Democratic Party. His tenure, while providing sweeping change, made Bolivia more attractive to FDI from the Cappy Core. Out of all this, the foreign elites and comprador porky still saw it more attractive to coup them. Huh, seems very discouraging to democrats and free talking points for establishing controlled systems like Cuba, don’t it?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on October 19, 2020, 08:53:19 AM
This is a victory for muh socialism (CONDOLENCES, LANDLORDS), muh Pachamama (CONDOLENCES, TRADCATS), and "laying off that whiskey and letting that cocaine be" (CONGRATS, JOHNNY CASH). Great honer!


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on October 19, 2020, 09:27:59 AM
This is a victory for muh socialism (CONDOLENCES, LANDLORDS), muh Pachamama (CONDOLENCES, TRADCATS), and "laying off that whiskey and letting that cocaine be" (CONGRATS, JOHNNY CASH). Great honer!

I'll have to play 'Cocaine Blues' in memory of the man in black


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 19, 2020, 10:25:38 AM
Results still very slow to come in apparently? Won't totally believe it until Arce has "officially" won......


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Babeuf on October 19, 2020, 10:35:53 AM
Mesa concedes!





Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on October 19, 2020, 10:41:04 AM
Something tells me General Kalimantan is going to be in a bit of trouble very soon.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2020, 10:57:11 AM
The  Bolivian boliviano fell almost 5% from right before the exit poll came out and now.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: America Has More Concentration Camps Than China on October 19, 2020, 10:59:01 AM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: warandwar on October 19, 2020, 11:42:30 AM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.
MAS is a political party aiming to represent a people who've been struggling for 400 years bruh. They don't need your help.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 19, 2020, 01:38:08 PM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.

Yes, Evo went from 61% to 47% in the past two elections because he wasn’t authoritarian enough. If he’d been more repressive he could have gone even higher.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Laki on October 19, 2020, 02:05:30 PM
Great news. MAS is a great party. Bolivia is a great country!


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: warandwar on October 19, 2020, 02:07:31 PM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.

Yes, Evo went from 61% to 47% in the past two elections because he wasn’t authoritarian enough. If he’d been more repressive he could have gone even higher.
MAS militants blockaded hospitals to get these elections, how much more militant could you get lol


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: America Has More Concentration Camps Than China on October 19, 2020, 03:15:00 PM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.
MAS is a political party aiming to represent a people who've been struggling for 400 years bruh. They don't need your help.
Yes, and said people probably aren't as worried about muh liberal democratic norms as Western radlibs.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: KaiserDave on October 19, 2020, 03:51:34 PM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.
MAS is a political party aiming to represent a people who've been struggling for 400 years bruh. They don't need your help.
Yes, and said people probably aren't as worried about muh liberal democratic norms as Western radlibs.

Or....maybe it's uhhh. Human decency?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: buritobr on October 19, 2020, 04:20:26 PM
The number of "liberals" who supported that coup - wallet inspection in its purest form.

Sure. Not only far-right people supported that coup.

I have this perception watching Brazilian mainstream media. Many journalists have criticism on Trump and Bolsonaro, but they refused to admit that what happened in Bolivia in 2019 was a coup. They don't use the G-word (golpe) to refer to the events in Bolivia in 2019. They speak about "political crisis". Actually, the 2019 Bolivian coup was much more similar to a classic third world coup than the coups of Honduras 2009, Paraguay 2012 and Brazil 2016. According to Brazilian mainstream media, Morales was a bigger threat to democracy than the policemen, the soldiers and the religious groups who took part in that uprising.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Babeuf on October 19, 2020, 04:55:26 PM
Seeing lots of anger at Camacho for "splitting the vote" and being a supposed MAS stooge on right-wing Bolivian twitter today. Not really sure why this is a prevalent belief since it looks like Arce got over 50% but it is out there.

Would have been a valid complaint if Arce was at 46% and Mesa got 34% and Arce won due to the >10% difference but with the expected MAS majority it doesn't make sense to me.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 19, 2020, 05:17:29 PM
Seeing lots of anger at Camacho for "splitting the vote" and being a supposed MAS stooge on right-wing Bolivian twitter today. Not really sure why this is a prevalent belief since it looks like Arce got over 50% but it is out there.

Would have been a valid complaint if Arce was at 46% and Mesa got 34% and Arce won due to the >10% difference but with the expected MAS majority it doesn't make sense to me.

You always need a scapegoat when you lose big.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Red Velvet on October 19, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
The number of "liberals" who supported that coup - wallet inspection in its purest form.

Liberals are right wing. That was always my understanding in my whole life. I’m actually more sympathetic to some conservative figures (who are at least honest about their stances) than lots of Brazilian liberals who l always thought were robots or something.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 19, 2020, 07:17:17 PM
Results keep trickling in and Arce has finally pulled ahead.

()


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 19, 2020, 07:18:08 PM
Also, the President-Elect is rad as hell:



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on October 19, 2020, 08:07:22 PM
They all are quite charming in their own way, unlike how rare it is with career politicians from upper class backgrounds.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on October 20, 2020, 06:11:46 AM
Wow, that jacket is amazing

President elect of the Rainbow Nation, that is to say the Plurinational State of Bolivia


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on October 20, 2020, 06:41:26 AM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.

Yes, Evo went from 61% to 47% in the past two elections because he wasn’t authoritarian enough. If he’d been more repressive he could have gone even higher.

I mean, technically yes? See: Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, etc

Of course the "real" approval would crater, but the election results would show Evo winning 99.9% or whatever

It would also be awful for the Bolivian people


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 20, 2020, 08:21:36 AM
Speculation the final result (whenever it actually arrives) will be even more decisive than exit polls indicated.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Heat on October 20, 2020, 08:45:38 AM
What's fascinating and telling about the right's mindset is that for a long time, until September even, they seem to have assumed that just the symbolism of snatching back power combined with inconsistent application of force and propaganda would somehow render the indigenous, who they clearly see as peasant hordes hardly better than animals, docile.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: America tried to assassinate Fidel Castro 638 times on October 20, 2020, 09:02:06 AM
The number of "liberals" who supported that coup - wallet inspection in its purest form.

Liberals are right wing. That was always my understanding in my whole life. I’m actually more sympathetic to some conservative figures (who are at least honest about their stances) than lots of Brazilian liberals who l always thought were robots or something.

Yep, exactly. That's how I've felt about America too. "Liberals" in America are closer to conservatives than leftists, that's why they had seizures on TV when Bernie won a primary and later thanked the Republicans for nominating Barrett for SCOTUS.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 20, 2020, 09:43:46 AM
Don’t call it a comeback.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on October 20, 2020, 09:50:32 AM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.

Yes, Evo went from 61% to 47% in the past two elections because he wasn’t authoritarian enough. If he’d been more repressive he could have gone even higher.

I mean, technically yes? See: Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, etc

Of course the "real" approval would crater, but the election results would show Evo winning 99.9% or whatever

It would also be awful for the Bolivian people

The best of all was Nasser: he managed to get 100.0% (rounded). Even among authoritarians I think it's quite a feat to get re-elected 7,000,000 for vs. 65 against.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on October 20, 2020, 10:17:11 AM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.

Yes, Evo went from 61% to 47% in the past two elections because he wasn’t authoritarian enough. If he’d been more repressive he could have gone even higher.

I mean, technically yes? See: Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, etc

Of course the "real" approval would crater, but the election results would show Evo winning 99.9% or whatever

It would also be awful for the Bolivian people

The best of all was Nasser: he managed to get 100.0% (rounded). Even among authoritarians I think it's quite a feat to get re-elected 7,000,000 for vs. 65 against.

I tend to prefer Saddam Hussein myself, who managed to get exactly 100% of the vote, with 100% turnout.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Iraqi_presidential_referendum

There is also the Liberian election of 1927, where the winner won 243000-9000; thanks to getting an insane 1680% turnout


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on October 20, 2020, 10:31:30 AM
Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.

Yes, Evo went from 61% to 47% in the past two elections because he wasn’t authoritarian enough. If he’d been more repressive he could have gone even higher.

I mean, technically yes? See: Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, etc

Of course the "real" approval would crater, but the election results would show Evo winning 99.9% or whatever

It would also be awful for the Bolivian people

The best of all was Nasser: he managed to get 100.0% (rounded). Even among authoritarians I think it's quite a feat to get re-elected 7,000,000 for vs. 65 against.

I tend to prefer Saddam Hussein myself, who managed to get exactly 100% of the vote, with 100% turnout.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Iraqi_presidential_referendum

There is also the Liberian election of 1927, where the winner won 243000-9000; thanks to getting an insane 1680% turnout

Wow, I didn't know about any of those two. I have just seen that the Liberian result has been called "the most rigged election ever", and rightly so.
I mean that's almost funny, the 1929 Italian election where the PNF took 98.4% of the votes feels just so free and fair in comparison.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Big Abraham on October 20, 2020, 11:16:15 AM


An honest indictment of all American interventions, which should be obvious and non-controversial


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: jaichind on October 20, 2020, 11:30:05 AM


An honest indictment of all American interventions, which should be obvious and non-controversial

As much I oppose MAS and Morales I agree with Tulsi's assessment. 


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: MaxQue on October 20, 2020, 12:00:19 PM


An honest indictment of all American interventions, which should be obvious and non-controversial

Too bad she's never there to condemn Russian interventionism.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Laki on October 20, 2020, 12:38:59 PM


An honest indictment of all American interventions, which should be obvious and non-controversial

I love Tulsi despite her flaws.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Where We Griff 1 We Griff All on October 20, 2020, 01:18:10 PM
66.4% reporting, Arce at 51.31%. Given what's likely out there among that remaining third...wouldn't be surprised to see Arce hit 55%.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 20, 2020, 01:53:33 PM
66.4% reporting, Arce at 51.31%. Given what's likely out there among that remaining third...wouldn't be surprised to see Arce hit 55%.

At this point I’m mainly rooting for him to beat Evo’s 53% from 2005.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Where We Griff 1 We Griff All on October 20, 2020, 02:48:06 PM
66.4% reporting, Arce at 51.31%. Given what's likely out there among that remaining third...wouldn't be surprised to see Arce hit 55%.

At this point I’m mainly rooting for him to beat Evo’s 53% from 2005.

Almost certainly will happen.



70.6% reporting; Arce now at 52.02%.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Where We Griff 1 We Griff All on October 20, 2020, 05:27:35 PM
76.6% reporting and Arce is now at 52.93%; Mesa about to drop below 30%.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 20, 2020, 05:30:04 PM
76.6% reporting and Arce is now at 52.93%; Mesa about to drop below 30%.

He just did, he’s at 29.98% now.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Logical on October 20, 2020, 08:47:38 PM
Do the Mennonites vote? If yes who did they vote for?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: H. Ross Peron on October 20, 2020, 10:09:26 PM
Do the Mennonites vote? If yes who did they vote for?

Chi Hyun Chung is an ethnic Korean and Presbyterian clergyman who is running on the right-wing Christian Democratic ticket. If the Mennonites vote, Chi seems like their closest match.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on October 21, 2020, 03:33:35 AM
Do the Mennonites vote? If yes who did they vote for?

Chi Hyun Chung is an ethnic Korean and Presbyterian clergyman who is running on the right-wing Christian Democratic ticket. If the Mennonites vote, Chi seems like their closest match.

Not just ethnically Korean, he’s an immigrant. (Not that that matters, of course.)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Where We Griff 1 We Griff All on October 21, 2020, 04:04:34 AM
86.2% reporting and Arce is now at 54.01%.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: GoTfan on October 21, 2020, 06:15:04 AM
So . . .

How ya feelin' CIA?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on October 21, 2020, 07:42:16 AM

()


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 21, 2020, 08:57:26 AM
86.2% reporting and Arce is now at 54.01%.

I think we can safely say he has won now :)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on October 21, 2020, 09:23:42 AM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/707849886837768245/768261558123626525/38a82ead-c364-482e-91ae-4a9d50dd9d34.png

Acknowledgements to CraneHusband:



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on October 21, 2020, 09:26:33 AM
Some overseas results are in and it shows an interesting pattern of where the rich (and white) expats go vs where the poor emigrants go.  For example, from what's counted so far, MAS is getting 83% in Argentina, 71% in Brazil and 50% in Spain, while CC is getting 73% in Germany and 41% in Italy (but with another 41% to Creemos in the latter).

There are Bolivians in Italy?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 21, 2020, 10:11:41 AM
Some overseas results are in and it shows an interesting pattern of where the rich (and white) expats go vs where the poor emigrants go.  For example, from what's counted so far, MAS is getting 83% in Argentina, 71% in Brazil and 50% in Spain, while CC is getting 73% in Germany and 41% in Italy (but with another 41% to Creemos in the latter).

There are Bolivians in Italy?

Only 5,859 (that have a right to vote), so they're easy to miss, I imagine.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on October 21, 2020, 10:21:12 AM
Some overseas results are in and it shows an interesting pattern of where the rich (and white) expats go vs where the poor emigrants go.  For example, from what's counted so far, MAS is getting 83% in Argentina, 71% in Brazil and 50% in Spain, while CC is getting 73% in Germany and 41% in Italy (but with another 41% to Creemos in the latter).

There are Bolivians in Italy?

Only 5,859 (that have a right to vote), so they're easy to miss, I imagine.

That's probably a good thing because they seem like massive HPs. 41% for Camacho, yeesh.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on October 21, 2020, 10:26:30 AM
Some overseas results are in and it shows an interesting pattern of where the rich (and white) expats go vs where the poor emigrants go.  For example, from what's counted so far, MAS is getting 83% in Argentina, 71% in Brazil and 50% in Spain, while CC is getting 73% in Germany and 41% in Italy (but with another 41% to Creemos in the latter).

There are Bolivians in Italy?

Only 5,859 (that have a right to vote), so they're easy to miss, I imagine.

Yeah I had never heard of any. Actually Liguria - where I live - is the region with the highest share of Latin American immigrants in Italy, but they are mostly Ecuadorian, Peruvian, or Dominican.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: America Has More Concentration Camps Than China on October 21, 2020, 11:08:45 AM
If only some of you would apply the skepticism you had here to the entirety of the farce that is the "liberal international order", and see that what happened here was the rule, not the exception. But I guess that's too scary a thought for most.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: GoTfan on October 22, 2020, 12:15:02 AM
If only some of you would apply the skepticism you had here to the entirety of the farce that is the "liberal international order", and see that what happened here was the rule, not the exception. But I guess that's too scary a thought for most.

Democracy is indispensable to socialism


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 22, 2020, 08:51:31 AM
If only some of you would apply the skepticism you had here to the entirety of the farce that is the "liberal international order", and see that what happened here was the rule, not the exception. But I guess that's too scary a thought for most.

Democracy is indispensable to socialism

Or you could simply observe that the actual record of socialism *without* democracy is just a tad sub-optimal.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on October 23, 2020, 01:45:50 PM
Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: buritobr on October 23, 2020, 03:15:44 PM
Final results:
Arce (MAS) 55%, 73 seats in the chamber, 21 seats in the senate
Mesa (CC) 29%, 41 seats in the chamber, 11 seats in the senate
Camacho (Creemos) 14%, 16 seats in the chamber, 4 seats in the senate

Camacho had 14%. Similar to AfD in Germany and smaller than Le Pen in France.




Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 23, 2020, 05:02:20 PM
Camacho had 14%. Similar to AfD in Germany and smaller than Le Pen in France.

You're clearly a smart guy, judging by what you write, but it would be good for you if you looked at different countries through different lenses, if you know what I mean. Bolivia and Germany or France have, frankly, nothing in common (besides the fact that they hold elections, and even that comes with an asterisk). Too much comparative politics is hazardous for your health ;)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on October 23, 2020, 05:39:52 PM
Camacho appears to be the leader of a rebel province. His base of support is heavily concentrated in the Santa Cruz department. Results:

Camacho 45 14%
Arce 36.14%
Mesa 17 33%

The CREEMOS candidate got 704k votes in his home base of Santa Cruz and 848k overall

These results reveal the markedly regionalist character of his peculiar movement


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on October 23, 2020, 05:57:06 PM
Indeed, Creemos is a regionalist (and very right-wing) party. Santa Cruz and its capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the center of Bolivia's "white" (more like "mestizo but with less indigenous blood", but let's not get into that) culture and unsurprisingly a long-time right-wing stronghold. There is a small but growing movement to give this part of the country more autonomy or, on the fringes, even independence. You can read more about it here: Bolivia: a tale of two countries (https://mondediplo.com/2020/07/06bolivia). Its members are... curious creatures - the most hilariously every-negative-stereotype-about-racist-right-wing-whites moments from that article:

Quote
She told me, ‘Santa Cruz is Bolivia’s most modern city. You’ve seen all the condos [the many gated developments]. It’s only natural. In Santa Cruz, we know how to invest our money, we know how to make it grow. Not like the Indians, who bury it in the ground as an offering to their “Pachamama”.’ Her dream was to see President Evo Morales, whom she called ‘that illiterate Indian’, removed.

[snark] Unsurprisingly for people who want to create a Volkstaat, they also have their own knockoff Weerstandsbeweging (presumably a similar clown car of morons like the original thing, for now):

Quote
She described an intense few months spent with the committee’s youth section, the Santa Cruz Youth Union (UJC), who call her Tia (auntie) and are ‘prepared to do anything to ensure the triumph of democracy’; members are often sent to prison for acts of violence.

This is not from a Dickens book:

Quote
I always tried to make sure that my children didn’t mix with poor people, so that they wouldn’t grow up to be lazy. I wanted them to be surrounded by money and acquire a taste for it. [...] People from the west, like him [Morales], are born hating us. That’s why they held us back. They’ve screwed up our businesses with social rights and welfare and so on.

lolbertarianism.jpg

Quote
To them, communism means taxes. Pablo Mendieta Ossio of the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce’s Centre for Bolivian Economic Studies, told me that under Morales’s presidency, the people of Santa Cruz were victims of ‘extortion’: ‘The problem wasn’t so much the tax rates — our taxes are very low — as the fact that audits have become more frequent in recent years,which increases the chances of the tax authorities making mistakes, and therefore the likelihood of fines.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on October 23, 2020, 06:36:23 PM
Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on October 23, 2020, 07:08:41 PM
Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?
If I had to guess, they’re trying to ensure that MAS won’t have a senate supermajority


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 23, 2020, 07:28:44 PM
Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?
If I had to guess, they’re trying to ensure that MAS won’t have a senate supermajority

I doubt it. It's 99.29% now and if you compare with the 99.96% count MAS has gained 0.1%, CC has gained 0.09%, Creemos has lost 0.19% and Chung's National Action Party of Bolivia has gained 0.01%.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Hash on October 23, 2020, 08:12:32 PM
Results by municipality:

()


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: H. Ross Peron on October 23, 2020, 08:39:55 PM
Are there any demographic differences between Camacho and Mesa supporters?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on October 23, 2020, 09:49:18 PM
Indeed, Creemos is a regionalist (and very right-wing) party. Santa Cruz and its capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the center of Bolivia's "white" (more like "mestizo but with less indigenous blood", but let's not get into that) culture and unsurprisingly a long-time right-wing stronghold. There is a small but growing movement to give this part of the country more autonomy or, on the fringes, even independence. You can read more about it here: Bolivia: a tale of two countries (https://mondediplo.com/2020/07/06bolivia). Its members are... curious creatures - the most hilariously every-negative-stereotype-about-racist-right-wing-whites moments from that article:

Quote
She told me, ‘Santa Cruz is Bolivia’s most modern city. You’ve seen all the condos [the many gated developments]. It’s only natural. In Santa Cruz, we know how to invest our money, we know how to make it grow. Not like the Indians, who bury it in the ground as an offering to their “Pachamama”.’ Her dream was to see President Evo Morales, whom she called ‘that illiterate Indian’, removed.

[snark] Unsurprisingly for people who want to create a Volkstaat, they also have their own knockoff Weerstandsbeweging (presumably a similar clown car of morons like the original thing, for now):

Quote
She described an intense few months spent with the committee’s youth section, the Santa Cruz Youth Union (UJC), who call her Tia (auntie) and are ‘prepared to do anything to ensure the triumph of democracy’; members are often sent to prison for acts of violence.

This is not from a Dickens book:

Quote
I always tried to make sure that my children didn’t mix with poor people, so that they wouldn’t grow up to be lazy. I wanted them to be surrounded by money and acquire a taste for it. [...] People from the west, like him [Morales], are born hating us. That’s why they held us back. They’ve screwed up our businesses with social rights and welfare and so on.

lolbertarianism.jpg

Quote
To them, communism means taxes. Pablo Mendieta Ossio of the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce’s Centre for Bolivian Economic Studies, told me that under Morales’s presidency, the people of Santa Cruz were victims of ‘extortion’: ‘The problem wasn’t so much the tax rates — our taxes are very low — as the fact that audits have become more frequent in recent years,which increases the chances of the tax authorities making mistakes, and therefore the likelihood of fines.

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: America tried to assassinate Fidel Castro 638 times on October 23, 2020, 10:55:31 PM
Indeed, Creemos is a regionalist (and very right-wing) party. Santa Cruz and its capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the center of Bolivia's "white" (more like "mestizo but with less indigenous blood", but let's not get into that) culture and unsurprisingly a long-time right-wing stronghold. There is a small but growing movement to give this part of the country more autonomy or, on the fringes, even independence. You can read more about it here: Bolivia: a tale of two countries (https://mondediplo.com/2020/07/06bolivia). Its members are... curious creatures - the most hilariously every-negative-stereotype-about-racist-right-wing-whites moments from that article:

Quote
She told me, ‘Santa Cruz is Bolivia’s most modern city. You’ve seen all the condos [the many gated developments]. It’s only natural. In Santa Cruz, we know how to invest our money, we know how to make it grow. Not like the Indians, who bury it in the ground as an offering to their “Pachamama”.’ Her dream was to see President Evo Morales, whom she called ‘that illiterate Indian’, removed.

[snark] Unsurprisingly for people who want to create a Volkstaat, they also have their own knockoff Weerstandsbeweging (presumably a similar clown car of morons like the original thing, for now):

Quote
She described an intense few months spent with the committee’s youth section, the Santa Cruz Youth Union (UJC), who call her Tia (auntie) and are ‘prepared to do anything to ensure the triumph of democracy’; members are often sent to prison for acts of violence.

This is not from a Dickens book:

Quote
I always tried to make sure that my children didn’t mix with poor people, so that they wouldn’t grow up to be lazy. I wanted them to be surrounded by money and acquire a taste for it. [...] People from the west, like him [Morales], are born hating us. That’s why they held us back. They’ve screwed up our businesses with social rights and welfare and so on.

lolbertarianism.jpg

Quote
To them, communism means taxes. Pablo Mendieta Ossio of the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce’s Centre for Bolivian Economic Studies, told me that under Morales’s presidency, the people of Santa Cruz were victims of ‘extortion’: ‘The problem wasn’t so much the tax rates — our taxes are very low — as the fact that audits have become more frequent in recent years,which increases the chances of the tax authorities making mistakes, and therefore the likelihood of fines.

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

The dude wearing a US Army hat next to Camacho is the icing on that s**t cake.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on October 23, 2020, 10:58:57 PM
Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?
If I had to guess, they’re trying to ensure that MAS won’t have a senate supermajority

I doubt it. It's 99.29% now and if you compare with the 99.96% count MAS has gained 0.1%, CC has gained 0.09%, Creemos has lost 0.19% and Chung's National Action Party of Bolivia has gained 0.01%.

Continuing to fall, now down under 99%. But yeah, it seems that the precincts affected by this are more right-leaning ones, so it doesn't sound like Arce's lead is at risk (unless the right-wingers are suddenly "finding" tons of new ballots, but that seems unlikely at this point).

Still would love to hear from someone familiar with the counting process if they have an idea what's going on.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Red Velvet on October 23, 2020, 11:48:57 PM
Camacho had 14%. Similar to AfD in Germany and smaller than Le Pen in France.

You're clearly a smart guy, judging by what you write, but it would be good for you if you looked at different countries through different lenses, if you know what I mean. Bolivia and Germany or France have, frankly, nothing in common (besides the fact that they hold elections, and even that comes with an asterisk). Too much comparative politics is hazardous for your health ;)

All of them have people, which may have some differences in specific things but are more similar in essence than not because it’s related to human instinct.

And judging by other examples, a passionate base of between 10%-20% for populist right seems about right. Too much, but controlled. When it breaks that bubble it’s when things get more dangerous.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2020, 01:20:14 AM
Indeed, Creemos is a regionalist (and very right-wing) party. Santa Cruz and its capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the center of Bolivia's "white" (more like "mestizo but with less indigenous blood", but let's not get into that) culture and unsurprisingly a long-time right-wing stronghold. There is a small but growing movement to give this part of the country more autonomy or, on the fringes, even independence. You can read more about it here: Bolivia: a tale of two countries (https://mondediplo.com/2020/07/06bolivia). Its members are... curious creatures - the most hilariously every-negative-stereotype-about-racist-right-wing-whites moments from that article:

Amazing stuff. I love this quote referring to the invasion of the barbarians

Quote
  Halfway through our journey, we came to the village of San Julián, which sprang up from nothing 30 years ago. Its 48,000 inhabitants are mostly indigenous Bolivian peasants who came from the interior. The brothers want autonomy for their department. They said ‘this jungle’ was an example of the ‘colla invasion’ of which the people of Santa Cruz are ‘victims’. ‘These savages throw stones at us when we drive through the village ... We need to separate ourselves from these crazy people.’

I saw women with their hair in plaits, wearing the traditional wide skirts of the Altiplano. Tulio said, ‘They shouldn’t be here. They’re not adapted to their surroundings. Animals shed their winter coats in summer ... These people are hot and sweaty, and they stink.’ (...)

It's easy to get an idea of the racist mindset of the Santa Cruz mestizo elites and the ongoing demographic conflict. You can see in the map the rural areas of Santa Cruz, where the collas from the highlands have settled, vote for the MAS



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 24, 2020, 02:02:47 AM
Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?
If I had to guess, they’re trying to ensure that MAS won’t have a senate supermajority

I doubt it. It's 99.29% now and if you compare with the 99.96% count MAS has gained 0.1%, CC has gained 0.09%, Creemos has lost 0.19% and Chung's National Action Party of Bolivia has gained 0.01%.

Continuing to fall, now down under 99%. But yeah, it seems that the precincts affected by this are more right-leaning ones, so it doesn't sound like Arce's lead is at risk (unless the right-wingers are suddenly "finding" tons of new ballots, but that seems unlikely at this point).

Still would love to hear from someone familiar with the counting process if they have an idea what's going on.

Looks like they're just correcting minor errors in some actas. They're back at 99.82% and the difference to the original 99.96% count is now MAS +0.03%, CC +0.02%, Creemos -0.05% and PAN +0.01%. The 88.42% turnout rate hasn't been adjusted so the total number of votes should be nearly identical.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on October 24, 2020, 04:19:36 AM
Yep! We finally have the complete, 100% count.

Arce 55.10% (+8.02)
Mesa 28.83% (-7.68)
Camacho 14.00% (new)
Hyun Chung 1.55% (-7.23)

What a beautiful triumph. And it has important policy implications: based on the 2019 results, MAS would have lost its majority in the lower house, but with this numbers they should hold a comfortable majority. So in a way, the coup has arguably strengthened MAS' hand (in addition to fostering a change in leadership which is probably healthy in and of itself for the party). Of course, the price to pay was one year of thuggish crackdowns, corruption and incompetence that have brought the country to its knees. So I'm definitely not saying it was worth it. Still, if there's one person who can fix this mess, it's probably the economy minister who oversaw the boom of the past decade and a half.

Checkmate, golpistas. The Bolivian working-class has reclaimed its freedom.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on October 24, 2020, 08:48:38 AM
Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

Lol
You know what I am going to say.

UmbertoBossi.jpg


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on October 24, 2020, 12:31:05 PM
Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

Lol
You know what I am going to say.

UmbertoBossi.jpg

Lega's the obvious example in Europe, yeah, but I also tend to think "woke" rich-region separatisms like Catalonia's are, to use the parlance of our times, kinda sus for this reason. To say nothing of the Calexit/Jesusland-map fantasists here in the US.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on October 24, 2020, 02:57:33 PM
Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

Lol
You know what I am going to say.

UmbertoBossi.jpg

Lega's the obvious example in Europe, yeah, but I also tend to think "woke" rich-region separatisms like Catalonia's are, to use the parlance of our times, kinda sus for this reason. To say nothing of the Calexit/Jesusland-map fantasists here in the US.

Well yeah, I agree.

By the way, we've already talked about this a lot, but I can't resist reposting my new favourite quote, which the cato-camachistas who are Saving Christianity From Those Idolatrous Indians™ surely love.

Quote from: Fratelli Tutti §125
What applies to nations is true also for different regions within each country, since there too great inequalities often exist. At times, the inability to recognize equal human dignity leads the more developed regions in some countries to think that they can jettison the “dead weight” of poorer regions and so increase their level of consumption.

More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on October 24, 2020, 10:24:28 PM
More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

When Antonio linked me to Estrella's post that I was originally responding to yesterday my first reaction was "So it's suburban Veneto but with the racial politics of Alabama? Sounds like a delightful place."


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Red Velvet on October 25, 2020, 02:17:38 AM

More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

It’s no casual thing that class divide is the main defining political factor in most places in the region. It’s also why the left tends to be stronger with the poor, because of inequality sure, but I don’t think there’s other regions in the world where the rich reach such levels of awfulness in such an open way. It’s declared war. In other places the elites still suck but I feel like they try to pretend much better they’re good humanitarians, etc.

Basically, sometimes it’s hard not going full communist around here lol.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: afleitch on October 25, 2020, 06:34:14 AM
Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

Lol
You know what I am going to say.

UmbertoBossi.jpg

(Looks at GDP)

NicolaSturgeon.jpg


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Velasco on October 25, 2020, 07:37:12 AM

More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

That's true. Latin American elites suck: take a look in Mexico, Brazil or Argentina. On the other hand, overt racism, classism and sexism are increasingly widespread. There are more fans of Bolsonaro in my country than I would like to admit


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: SInNYC on October 25, 2020, 10:02:51 AM

More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

It’s no casual thing that class divide is the main defining political factor in most places in the region. It’s also why the left tends to be stronger with the poor, because of inequality sure, but I don’t think there’s other regions in the world where the rich reach such levels of awfulness in such an open way. It’s declared war. In other places the elites still suck but I feel like they try to pretend much better they’re good humanitarians, etc.

Basically, sometimes it’s hard not going full communist around here lol.

Is there some correlation between religion and such sentiment? eg, do rich Catholics, Pentecostals, and non-religious differ?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Red Velvet on October 25, 2020, 11:11:03 AM
More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

It’s no casual thing that class divide is the main defining political factor in most places in the region. It’s also why the left tends to be stronger with the poor, because of inequality sure, but I don’t think there’s other regions in the world where the rich reach such levels of awfulness in such an open way. It’s declared war. In other places the elites still suck but I feel like they try to pretend much better they’re good humanitarians, etc.

Basically, sometimes it’s hard not going full communist around here lol.

Is there some correlation between religion and such sentiment? eg, do rich Catholics, Pentecostals, and non-religious differ?


Not really, at least I don’t think so. There are wealthy Catholics, evangelicals and atheists just like there poorer ones. Evangelicals tend to be more conservative on specific social issues but that isn’t related to class, you’ll find these people in all spectrums of status.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe! on October 26, 2020, 07:45:18 AM
There were definitely religious appeals involved in the coup against Morales because indigenous people in Bolivia are often crypto-pagan pachamamistas, but my impression is that most Bolivian Christians didn't actually find those appeals, like. compelling.

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

Lol
You know what I am going to say.

UmbertoBossi.jpg

(Looks at GDP)

NicolaSturgeon.jpg

Not that I'm a huge fan of Scottish nationalism either (sorry), but isn't Scotland slightly poorer than the rest of the UK (more because of how much richer Greater London is than everywhere else than because it's poorer than the other parts of England)?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 26, 2020, 12:55:14 PM
The bounty of the North Sea (oil rather than fish) complicates the picture at present, but, don't worry, in the not so distant future it certainly won't.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on October 26, 2020, 01:42:46 PM
In Scotland the picture is also complicated because whilst the price of oil means Scotland can be either richer or poorer than the UK median, there are parts of Scotland that always subsidise the rest of the UK and parts where the converse is true.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on November 08, 2020, 10:41:56 PM
Luis Arce is president. Democracy is officially back in Bolivia. <3


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on November 09, 2020, 03:40:04 AM
Luis Arce is president. Democracy is officially back in Bolivia. <3

Muh savages 1
Santa Cruz elites and other assorted ghouls 0

<3

The following is a famous Italian song appropriate whenever the left-wing wins:
https://youtu.be/Ao0eLUeUQC0


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 09, 2020, 10:49:44 AM
"Liberals" who almost invariably prefer fascism to socialism - also 0 :)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil on November 09, 2020, 11:53:57 PM
Nice to see MAS back in. Arce over Mesa and Creemos any day.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: alancia on November 10, 2020, 02:02:51 PM
Honestly nice to see Morales back in Bolivia. Probably the President that did the most for Bolivia's people in its history.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on November 17, 2020, 10:40:32 AM
Some overseas results are in and it shows an interesting pattern of where the rich (and white) expats go vs where the poor emigrants go.  For example, from what's counted so far, MAS is getting 83% in Argentina, 71% in Brazil and 50% in Spain, while CC is getting 73% in Germany and 41% in Italy (but with another 41% to Creemos in the latter).

There are Bolivians in Italy?

Only 5,859 (that have a right to vote), so they're easy to miss, I imagine.

Yeah I had never heard of any. Actually Liguria - where I live - is the region with the highest share of Latin American immigrants in Italy, but they are mostly Ecuadorian, Peruvian, or Dominican.

Interesting update on this:

1. Apparently my girlfriend is vaguely acquainted with an adopted girl from Bolivia. From her countenance, she looks mestiza.

2. I've found out where all the Bolivians here are: Bergamo. Literally. Of all Bolivian citizens in all of Italy, a whopping 25% live just in the city of Bergamo, where they constitute the largest immigrant group and ~3% of the total city population. I guess it makes sense that they voted so much for Camacho then, since the province of Bergamo is ground zero for cattoleghismo.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Estrella ✯ on November 17, 2020, 02:23:26 PM
2. I've found out where all the Bolivians here are: Bergamo. Literally. Of all Bolivian citizens in all of Italy, a whopping 25% live just in the city of Bergamo, where they constitute the largest immigrant group and ~3% of the total city population. I guess it makes sense that they voted so much for Camacho then, since the province of Bergamo is ground zero for cattoleghismo.

Like, why? I went looking for reasons and I tried but didn't find anything. What I did find, however, were some irrelevant but still hilarious things:

1. Three countries have a consulate in Bergamo: Switzerland (okay, it's in Northern Italy), Bolivia (there are a lot of their people there) and... Malawi? Is it just that rent in downtown Milano is so expensive? Why do they even have a consulate outside the capital?

2. There's a Facebook page called Comunidad boliviana en Bergamo and, to surprise of literally no-one, they post thing like this (warning: fantastically unashamed racism)

()

2a. "un alteñ@", yay woke white supremacy!

2b. "escalteño" is not even a pun, you're just sticking words together, idiots.

3. I think you have the correlation backward; they aren't voting for Camacho because they live among their ideological soulmates, but because they're (probably) mostly from Santa Cruz. That would partly explain why there are so many of them there, they could have chosen Bergamo because of an existing santacruceño community, but something must have led to creation of that community in the first place.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on November 17, 2020, 02:45:49 PM
2. I've found out where all the Bolivians here are: Bergamo. Literally. Of all Bolivian citizens in all of Italy, a whopping 25% live just in the city of Bergamo, where they constitute the largest immigrant group and ~3% of the total city population. I guess it makes sense that they voted so much for Camacho then, since the province of Bergamo is ground zero for cattoleghismo.

Like, why? I went looking for reasons and I tried but didn't find anything. What I did find, however, were some irrelevant but still hilarious things:

1. Three countries have a consulate in Bergamo: Switzerland (okay, it's in Northern Italy), Bolivia (there are a lot of their people there) and... Malawi? Is it just that rent in downtown Milano is so expensive? Why do they even have a consulate outside the capital?

2. There's a Facebook page called Comunidad boliviana en Bergamo and, to surprise of literally no-one, they post thing like this (warning: fantastically unashamed racism)

https://i.ibb.co/YXCkPVS/Screenshot-from-2020-11-17-20-09-43.png

2a. "un alteñ@", yay woke white supremacy!

2b. "escalteño" is not even a pun, you're just sticking words together, idiots.

3. I think you have the correlation backward; they aren't voting for Camacho because they live among their ideological soulmates, but because they're (probably) mostly from Santa Cruz. That would partly explain why there are so many of them there, they could have chosen Bergamo because of an existing santacruceño community, but something must have led to creation of that community in the first place.

1. I have no idea about Malawi, lol.

2. oh my God I can't. That's both massively racist and a bad joke even aside from that.

3. I was actually joking on what is probably a coincidence.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: America Has More Concentration Camps Than China on November 17, 2020, 03:06:56 PM
Is Arce a red fash tankie now that he's removed some generals that were loyal to the coup?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 18, 2020, 07:50:26 AM
Is Arce a red fash tankie now that he's removed some generals that were loyal to the coup?

I don't notice many people claiming that tbh. Or is this satire? ;)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on November 18, 2020, 03:11:14 PM
Apparently the new environment minister is some sh**tty agro dude. Big oops but not super shocking from MAS tbh.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on December 23, 2020, 01:36:14 PM
2021 departmental and local elections are coming up. MAS is seeking to retain and expand its governorships but is seeing division between Evo (back in Bolivia and party president) and more “renovation”-themed forces in the party, with the party bases claiming that Evo’s imposing his own candidates in the primaries. Luis Fernando Camacho is running for something but we’re not sure if it’s the mayor of Santa Cruz or the governor. Waldo Abarracín (university president and former ombudsman) is the opposition candidate for mayor of La Paz.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on December 23, 2020, 03:47:08 PM
2021 departmental and local elections are coming up. MAS is seeking to retain and expand its governorships but is seeing division between Evo (back in Bolivia and party president) and more “renovation”-themed forces in the party, with the party bases claiming that Evo’s imposing his own candidates in the primaries. Luis Fernando Camacho is running for something but we’re not sure if it’s the mayor of Santa Cruz or the governor. Waldo Abarracín (university president and former ombudsman) is the opposition candidate for mayor of La Paz.

Oh. Either way, Camacho is a shoo-in, I imagine?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on December 23, 2020, 05:47:29 PM
2021 departmental and local elections are coming up. MAS is seeking to retain and expand its governorships but is seeing division between Evo (back in Bolivia and party president) and more “renovation”-themed forces in the party, with the party bases claiming that Evo’s imposing his own candidates in the primaries. Luis Fernando Camacho is running for something but we’re not sure if it’s the mayor of Santa Cruz or the governor. Waldo Abarracín (university president and former ombudsman) is the opposition candidate for mayor of La Paz.

Oh. Either way, Camacho is a shoo-in, I imagine?

I imagine, yes. As is Albarracín.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on December 23, 2020, 07:55:17 PM
Morales needs to accept that he's not in charge anymore and that Bolivian socialism can go on without him. He's done an immeasurable amount of good for the country, and yes, by every right he should be president right now, but the fact that the country in 2019 was vulnerable to a right-wing coup is at least in part a testament to his obstinacy, and MAS can only fully recover by being willing to turn the page.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on December 23, 2020, 10:03:56 PM
Morales needs to accept that he's not in charge anymore and that Bolivian socialism can go on without him. He's done an immeasurable amount of good for the country, and yes, by every right he should be president right now, but the fact that the country in 2019 was vulnerable to a right-wing coup is at least in part a testament to his obstinacy, and MAS can only fully recover by being willing to turn the page.

I agree (although perhaps not by every right; if Trump pulled anything like Evo did with 28F people would be calling for his head and rightly so), and I think a lot of the MAS base does as well.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on December 26, 2020, 11:01:13 PM
2021 departmental and local elections are coming up. MAS is seeking to retain and expand its governorships but is seeing division between Evo (back in Bolivia and party president) and more “renovation”-themed forces in the party, with the party bases claiming that Evo’s imposing his own candidates in the primaries. Luis Fernando Camacho is running for something but we’re not sure if it’s the mayor of Santa Cruz or the governor. Waldo Abarracín (university president and former ombudsman) is the opposition candidate for mayor of La Paz.

Speaking of this, some dissident masistas and local social organizations have broken from the official party candidate in the (majority-Aymara) city of El Alto (Zacarías Maquera) to support Eva Copa (former Senate president during Áñez’s term), alleging more meddling and dedazos by Evo. Copa herself has not yet commented.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on December 30, 2020, 03:16:39 PM
Copa has officially split from MAS (temporarily, she says) and is running for mayor of El Alto for Jallalla, Felipe Quispe’s vehicle for his own candidacy for governor of La Paz. Quispe, for those who are unaware, is a longtime indigenous activist and leftist critic of Evo.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: PSOL on December 30, 2020, 03:47:09 PM
MAS, both the left and right factions, made grave mistakes appeasing the multinationals and landowners. Given that these are small splits regionally, it shouldn’t matter much.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on January 21, 2021, 09:28:59 PM
Felipe Quispe died of a heart attack two days ago. He left a very long and historic legacy of fighting for the indigenous people(s) of Bolivia until the very end.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams on January 21, 2021, 09:58:38 PM
Felipe Quispe died of a heart attack two days ago. He left a very long and historic legacy of fighting for the indigenous people(s) of Bolivia until the very end.

What a shame. His voice was more needed now than ever. I hope others take up the fight - MAS needs to be kept on its toes on Indigenous issues.

Rest in peace.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil on January 30, 2021, 04:35:37 PM
Rest in peace.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on January 31, 2021, 11:15:04 AM
Waldo Albarracín (CC candidate) has dropped out of the race for mayor of La Paz.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Radically celibate, involuntarily feminist on January 31, 2021, 12:19:36 PM
Felipe Quispe was... surely an interesting character. Rest in peace.

Waldo Albarracín (CC candidate) has dropped out of the race for mayor of La Paz.

Ironic since you called him a shoo-in one month ago. But why did he drop out?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on January 31, 2021, 05:03:26 PM
Felipe Quispe was... surely an interesting character. Rest in peace.

Waldo Albarracín (CC candidate) has dropped out of the race for mayor of La Paz.

Ironic since you called him a shoo-in one month ago. But why did he drop out?

His official story seems to be that he doesn’t like how people are campaigning during a covid wave, although it may also be that he’s not actually as much of a shoo-in as he hoped and I thought. I still think the opposition will win, since the current mayor split from MAS and still managed to win in 2010 and 2015, plus it’s of course a more urban area, but it looks like Albarracín turned out not to be the unifying figure the leaders of the opposition imagined him as.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce on January 31, 2021, 05:18:20 PM
There are polls, by the way, but I choose not to believe them because I can’t find enough to average them and I don’t know how any biases or particularities would work at this level.