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Title: Rate this prediction Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on October 02, 2019, 08:02:03 AM Is Georgia the new Ohio?
Title: Re: Rate this prediction Post by: Frenchrepublican on October 02, 2019, 11:43:13 AM AZ is more likely to be the new Ohio
Title: Re: Rate this prediction Post by: Politician on October 02, 2019, 11:44:07 AM No, a better candidate would be WI (2008-2048)
Title: Re: Rate this prediction Post by: Agonized-Statism on October 02, 2019, 12:11:03 PM More likely Texas. It would be what New York was in the 19th century.
Title: Re: Rate this prediction Post by: Gracile on October 02, 2019, 12:18:03 PM Given the state's heavy Democratic trend, I think it is unlikely. It's possible that a future Republican presidential win would not include Georgia.
Title: Re: Rate this prediction Post by: Thegreatwar18 on October 02, 2019, 06:19:27 PM More likely Texas. It would be what New York was in the 19th century. Title: Re: Rate this prediction Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on October 03, 2019, 06:02:42 AM AZ is a really good choice, I think it will be flip-floppy, but regularly trend against the nation. And it only has
Democrats will start winning without WI, which will also drop to 9 EVs in 2030 or 2040. TX will be a genuine, pure swing state, but probably by 2024 will still not be in a Democrat's victory path. And I think 2024 favors Democrats because we'll either have a Dem incumbent or coming off of eight completely intolerable years of Trump/Pence/Whatever. I'd look at 2028 as the year it's genuinely a monster purple state. Title: Re: Rate this prediction Post by: Orser67 on October 03, 2019, 01:04:54 PM Others mentioned AZ and TX, but I think FL and PA also deserve to be mentioned. Both are large states that straddle different regions (FL doing so in a unique way), and each could go in different directions depending on the exact composition of the parties going forward.
Title: Re: Rate this prediction Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on October 03, 2019, 02:08:49 PM Others mentioned AZ and TX, but I think FL and PA also deserve to be mentioned. Both are large states that straddle different regions (FL doing so in a unique way), and each could go in different directions depending on the exact composition of the parties going forward. I agree on Pennsylvania, especially if the Rust/Sun Realignment is really a thing (and it is). Saying no President will win without GA doesn't imply that there won't be other states that every victorious President wins. Florida and Ohio have been perfect since 1996 (and Ohio has been perfect since 1964). If the Democrat wins in a very close race in 2020, there's a decent chance of them winning without Florida, though. Title: Re: Rate this prediction Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 03, 2019, 05:01:52 PM It could be true for the 2020s but beyond that, I don't think it has long term viability as a bellwether.
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