Talk Elections

An AARP poll was leaked.

Collins leads by a large margin over Gideon.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016d-36ba-d596-a37d-3eff40b00001

Yeah, people are seriously exaggerating how competitive this race is. Collins can’t take anything for granted, but she’s definitely favored.

ME isn’t some deep blue state.

This poll is over two months old man

Awful numbers for Collins this far out.

A 17 point margin is “awful”?

Better than I would have expected

I think it will be closer than this in the end (Collins is bound to lose some of her favorability among Democrats when she actually starts seriously campaigning and the Democratic nominee becomes more known), but it's pretty clear that Collins has a firm advantage that she could maintain until election day.

Only has support of 52% while 73% have no idea who Gideon is.

Yes. Its over a year and a 1/2 out and all she can muster as a "popular incumbent" is 52% against a candidate that literally only has 30% name rec?

This race is quite obviously likely R, cut the delusion and get a grip.

Among voters who have heard of both candidates, Collins leads 47/44.

Exactly

With the Kavanaugh scandal in the news again Collins is bound to take a hit from that since she was the person who stood up most for him and gave a speech lecturing everyone about how good he is. Tick tock, Miss Perfect.

Just like how it was going to destroy her a year ago, right?

Because these voters are disproportionately democrat compared to the general electorate.

You can't really destroy an elected official until the actual election and that campaign really hasn't even started yet. Besides, there are other pro-Trump votes she took that can easily be used against her.

I mean, her approvals certainly have tanked from their previous highs. Her approval in the poll is only +8, a large drop from someone considered "One of the most popular Senators in America".

Casey is polling at 47%.... it must mean that Barletta is at 53% ?

That was one poll among numerous, all showing much larger margins for Casey, in a time much closer to the election.

You do realize that that election was last year? It's really silly how you all think you can make up your own facts contrary to reality. Barletta can't win a race that is over.

That's still goalpost moving. If I recall, the thread from a year ago was titled "Did Susan Collins just announce her retirement?", which many Atlas D hacks concurred with and I was raked over the coals for arguing was stupid.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303207.0

Right, because thats exactly what I was referring to when I said that her approvals have dropped since her Kavanaugh decision. I was clearly referring to a thread made a year ago that no one has named at all in this conversation but you. ::)

If you are going to pull up receipts, pull up all those excessive posts of you saying that Roy Moore was going to win by 20%. Your record of predictions is not exactly good, so calling others hacks is not such a good idea for you.

I'm saying many Atlas D hacks way overestimated the impact it would have, and to make the same mistake once again because of new Kavanaugh news that only hardcore partisans care about is silly. It's not as though people in that thread were having sane and measured takes such as "well, Collins' approval will likely drop, she will lose much of her crossover support, and and she certainly won't win by ~40 points again" but rather piping hot takes about how "SHE'S FINISHED AND WILL EITHER RETIRE OR BE DOA!!!1!!!!"


That never happened? lol. Unless you're referring to before the pedophilia news broke, which would make that prediction irrelevant for uh...obvious reasons.

I'm pretty sure you predicted Moore was going to win big after the allegations broke.

It's going to turn into Collins 50/Dem 46 like WV/MT 2018 did, but she will still win.

I predicted he'd win by 8, not 20. Still a bad prediction, but you're going to need more accurate receipts if you're going to go toe to toe here. ;)

Somebody here predicted Moore would win by 20%, but whatever. I was still one of the few posters that said that Jones would win and you weren't. 8% was still fairly absurd.

RI-SEN 2006 redux. Collins leading by as much as Chafee was but nobody knew who Whitehouse was.

Collins has never been attacked on her Kavanaugh vote in the context of a real political campaign. While there was a lot of fervor in the aftermath of the vote, that stuff can very quickly get overlooked - especially since she wasn't running at the time. It is likely that one of the reasons her favorabilities among Dems/Independents is because the Kavanaugh incident isn't at the top of voters' minds. I still think Collins is favored to win, but it's not out of the question that Gideon or whoever could capitalize on her record, weakening much of her crossover appeal in the process (such a thing is very common in our current era of heavily partisan politics).

An incumbent over 50 is solid. I'm skeptical of the campaign value of the Kavanaugh issue. It would make more sense to point out that the Supreme Court could overturn Roe v. Wade after the election thanks in part to Collins, considering:


https://mainebeacon.com/poll-mainers-overwhelmingly-support-upholding-roe-v-wade/

Yeah, looking at the rest of the polls that were just released, my faith in the accuracy of this poll has been a bit shaken.

I believe that Collins is favored, but not by that much.

These polls are from July

So KY-SEN is atossup? CO-SEN is Lean R?

I guess the Senate runs thru NC and KY

Maine is a much more conservative state than Rhode Island, so I don't think this is the best comparison.

So Collins is going to do 13 points better than Trump 2016 in a Democratic wave year? Republicans will be very happy to hear that.

     Maine has been trending Republican as well. I don't put much stock in polls over a year before the election, but Collins is favored at this point.

This poll was done in July 31st, a poll we already seen before, Gideon will beat Collins

Here's why Susan Collins is going to lose...

When the Supreme Court gathers on October 1 to decide which cases to hear, they're very likely going to agree to consider June Medical Services v Gee, a case involving Louisiana abortion restrictions.  The decision will likely come down next June, the month when the Court ordinarily hands down its most contentious opinions.  The Court will probably leave some shell of Roe in place but also make it clear that at TRAP laws are now permissible.  Once the Supreme Court opens the floodgates to laws whose real purpose is to drive up the cost of operating an abortion clinic, that will be the end of the Constitutional right to an abortion.

And all because Collins went to the mat to put Kavanaugh on the bench. 

Considering AARP has had a string of crappy opinion polls put out this week, Color Me skeptical

This poll is unerringly reminiscent of one that I remember seeing on here a few months or so before the elections last year, showing Joe Manchin leading Patrick Morrisey by something like 51-38%. And we saw how that turned out. I wouldn't be surprised if Collins ends up winning by a narrow 52-48 or 51-49 margin when all is said and done. Even though it's a year out, I think this poll might be a foreshadow of what is to come.

The difference is that Maine is far more R friendly than WV is D friendly.

Yes, I'm aware of that. The similarity lies in the fact that Collins will probably be held to a narrow victory (around 3% or so), like Manchin was, and that she will collapse from her prior landslide victories, like Manchin did.

When all the dust will have settled, I expect she will win 51/47

Manchin lucked out by getting a terrible opponent. I'm less sure Collins will.

From what little I've seen, Gideon hasn't proven herself to be that impressive either thus far, though she is certainly no where near as terrible as the vile Morrisey. And she doesn't seem to be on the same level of some of 2018's other bad candidates either, like Vukmir, Barletta, and Renacci. But she's not the strongest possible recruit-that probably would have been Jared Golden, who would be able to chip away at Collins' support among independents and moderate Democrats. But then again, polarization has intensified, and a Collins defeat would not surprise me in the slightest. We'll have to see what happens.


Again, similar to my prediction, which I posted above. That would put her in the ballpark of Manchin, Tester, and Cruz, who all held on by 3% margins last year.