Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 05:58:51 AM



Title: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 05:58:51 AM
In this thread, I'll be looking at for how long counties have been voting within 5 points of a) their state b) the nation. So, if Candidate X carries State Y by 2.7 points in 1359, all the counties he won by up to 7.7 points or lost by up to 2.3 points are bellwethers for that year and state. By state will be done first.

Maine - Aroostook, Oxford since 1988
New Hampshire - Merrimack since 1980
Vermont - Bennington since 1964
Massachusetts - Middlesex since 1956 (despite never voting for Reagan)
Rhode Island - Bristol, Newport since 2004
Connecticut - New Haven, Tolland since 1964
New York - Westchester since 2000
New Jersey - Burlington, Passaic since 1960
Pennsylvania - Carbon, Luzerne, Northampton since 1980
Ohio - Lake since 1980
Indiana - Fayette since 1980
Illinois - Henderson since 1992
Michigan - Kalamazoo since 1988
Wisconsin - Racine since 1976 (despite voting for Bush jr twice)
Minnesota - Pope, Yellow Medicine since 1988
Iowa - Poweshiek since 1932! (it's tiny, too!)
Missouri - Clay since 1964
Delaware - none since 2004
Maryland - Howard since 2004
Virginia - Essex since 1976
West Virginia - Greenbrier since 1976
North Carolina - Lenoir since 1984
South Carolina - Laurens, Saluda since 1984
Georgia - Decatur since 1984
Florida - Pinellas since 1980
Kentucky - Daviess since 1976
Tennessee - Carroll since 1968
Alabama - Tuscaloosa since 1960
Mississippi - Leake, Tate, Warren since 1984
Arkansas - Johnson, Van Buren since 1980
Louisiana - Claiborne since 1980
Oklahoma - Comanche since 1976
Texas - Tarrant, Uvalde since 1992
Kansas - Osage since 1976
Nebraska - Otoe since 1984
South Dakota - Codington since 1976
North Dakota - Stutsman since 1956
Montana - Lake since 1984
Idaho - Benewah, Boundary, Clearwater, Kootenai since 2004
Wyoming - Fremont since 1960
Colorado - Jefferson since 1996 (but see note)
New Mexico - Bernalillo since 1980
Arizona - Maricopa since 1996 (despite voting for Dole that year)
Utah - Wasatch since 1992
Nevada - Washoe since 2004
Washington - Snohomish since 1972
Oregon - Washington since 1992
California - Lake, San Benito since 1992
Alaska - no data
Hawaii - none since 2004

by nation will be done some other day and presumably year. Someone to the rescue for Stutsman and Fremont please.


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 06:08:18 AM
Maine-
out in 2004 Cumberland (too dem), Penobscot, Piscataquis, Somerset, Washington (too rep)
out in 2000 Androscoggin, Kennebec (too dem), Hancock, Lincoln, Waldo (too rep)
out in 1996 Franklin (too dem), Knox (too rep)
out in 1988 Sagadahoc, York (too rep)
out in 1984 Aroostook, Oxford (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 06:14:02 AM
New Hampshire-
out in 2004 Cheshire, Grafton, Strafford (too dem), Belknap, Carroll, Rockingham (too rep)
out in 1996 Coos (too dem)
out in 1992 Sullivan (too dem)
out in 1988 Hillsborough (too rep)
out in 1976 Merrimack (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 06:23:15 AM
Vermont -
out in 2004 Chittenden, Lamoille, Windham (too dem), Caledonia, Essex, Franklin, Grand Isle, Orange, Orleans, Rutland (too rep)
out in 1984 Washington (too dem)
out in 1972 Addison (too rep)
out in 1968 Windsor (too rep)
out in 1960 Bennington (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 06:31:54 AM
Massachusetts-
out in 2004 Berkshire, Dukes, Franklin, Hampshire, Suffolk (too dem), Barnstable, Essex, Plymouth, Worcester (too rep)
out in 2000 Bristol (too dem)
out in 1988 Hampden, Nantucket (too dem)
out in 1980 Norfolk (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 06:35:02 AM
Rhode Island
out in 2004 - Providence (too dem), Kent, Washington (too rep)
out in 2000 - Bristol, Newport (too rep). No county was within 5 points of the state result in 2000.


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 06:42:24 AM
Connecticut-
out in 2004 Hartford (too dem), Fairfield, Litchfield (too rep)
out in 1992 Middlesex, New London (too dem)
out in 1976 Windham (too dem)
out in 1960 New Haven (too dem), Tolland (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 06:56:01 AM
New York
out in 2004 - Albany, Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, Tompkins (too dem), Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton, Columbia, Cortlandt, Delaware, Dutchess, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Genesee, Greene, Hamilton, Herkimer, Jefferson, Lewis, Livingston, Madison, Monroe, Montgomery, Nassau, Niagara, Oneida, Onondaga, Ontario, Orange, Orleans, Oswego, Otsego, Putnam, Rensselaer, Richmond, Rockland, Saint Lawrence, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Suffolk, Sullivan, Tioga, Ulster, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Wyoming, Yates (too rep)
out in 2000 - Erie (too dem)
out in 1996 - Westchester (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 07:06:04 AM
New Jersey -
out in 2004 Camden, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Union (too dem), Cape May, Hunterdon, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Sussex, Warren (too rep)
out in 1996 Cumberland (too dem)
out in 1984 Bergen (too rep)
out in 1976 Atlantic, Gloucester (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 07:20:18 AM
Where sane posters do not tread, Pennsylvania -
out in 2004 Allegheny, Delaware, Erie, Lackawanna, Montgomery, Philadelphia (too dem), Adams, Armstrong, Bedford, Berks, Blair, Bradford, Butler, Cameron, Centre, Chester, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Crawford, Cumberland, Dauphin, Elk, Forest, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Indiana, Jefferson, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lycoming, McKean, Mercer, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Perry, Pike, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Union, Venango, Warren, Wayne, Westmoreland, Wyoming, York (too rep)
out in 2000 Fayette, Greene (too dem), Monroe (too rep)
out in 1996 Beaver, Cambria, Lawrence, Washington (too dem), Bucks, Lehigh (too rep)
out in 1976 Carbon, Luzerne, Northampton (too dem)



Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 07:42:47 AM
Ohio-
out in 2004 Ashtabaula, Athens, Belmont, Cuyahoga, Erie, Franklin, Jefferson, Lorain, Lucas, Mahoning, Monroe, Portage, Summit, Trumbull (too dem), Adams, Allen, Ashland, Auglaize, Brown, Butler, Carroll, Champaign, Clermont, Clinton, Coshocton, Crawford, Darke, Defiance, Delaware, Fairfield, Fayette, Fulton, Gallia, Geauga, Greene, Guernsey, Hancock, Hardin, Henry, Highland, Holmes, Huron, Jackson, Knox, Lawrence, Licking, Logan, Madison, Marion, Medina, Meigs, Mercer, Miami, Morgan, Monroe, Muskingum, Noble, Paulding, Pickaway, Preble, Putnam, Richland, Ross, Sandusky, Seneca, Shelby, Tuscarawas, Union, Van Wert, Vinton, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Williams, Wyandot (too rep)
out in 2000 Montgomery (too dem), Hamilton, Hocking, Wood (too rep)
out in 1996 Columbiana, Harrison, Ottawa, Pike (too dem)
out in 1992 Scioto (too dem)
out in 1988 Clark (too rep)
out in 1984 Perry (too rep)
out in 1980 Stark (too rep)
out in 1976 Lake (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 08:09:42 AM
Indiana -
out in 2004 Crawford, Delaware, Lake, LaPorte, Marion, Monroe, Perry, Porter, Saint Joseph, Scott, Starke, Vermilion, Vigo (too dem), Adams, Allen, Batholomew, Benton, Blackford, Boone, Carroll, Cass, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, Dearborn, Decatur, DeKalb, Dubois, Elkhart, Fountain, Franklin, Fulton, Gibson, Grant, Greene, Hamilton, Hancock, Harrison, Hendricks, Henry, Howard, Huntington, Jackson, Jasper, Jay, Jennings, Johnson, Knox, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Marshall, Martin, Miami, Montgomery, Morgan, Newton, Noble, Orange, Owen, Parke, Posey, Pulaski, Putnam, Randolph, Ripley, Rush, Shelby, Spencer, Steuben, Tipton, Union, Wabash, Warren, Warrick, Washington, Wells, White, Whitley (too rep)
out in 2000 Clark, Madison, Sullivan, Vanderburgh (too dem), Lawrence, Ohio (too rep)
out in 1996 Floyd, Jefferson, Pike, Switzerland (too dem), Tippecanoe (too rep)
out in 1984 Brown (too dem), Wayne (too rep)
out in 1976 Fayette (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 08:20:35 AM
Illinois -
Cook (too dem), Adams, Alexander, Bond, Boone, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Carroll, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, DeKalb, DeWitt, Douglas, DuPage, Edgar, Edwards, Effingham, Fayette, Ford, Franklin, Gallatin, Greene, Grundy, Hancock, Hardin, Henry, Iroquois, Jasper, Jefferson, Jersey, Jo Davies, Johnson, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, Knox, Lake, LaSalle, Lawrence, Lee, Livingston, Logan, McDonough, McHenry, McLean, Macon, Macoupin, Madison, Marion, Marshall, Mason, Massac, Menard, Mercer, Monroe, Montgomery, Morgan, Moultrie, Ogle, Peoria, Perry, Piatt, Pike, Pope, Pulaski, Putnam, Randolph, Richland, Saline, Sangamon, Schuyler, Scott, Shelby, Stark, Stephenson, Tazewell, Union, Vermilion, Wabash, Warren, Washington, Wayne, White, Whiteside, Will, Williamson, Winnebago, Woodford (too rep). LOL f*c*ing LOL.
out in 2000 Rock Island (too dem)
out in 1996 Fulton (too dem)
out in 1992 Jackson, Saint Clair (too dem)
out in 1988 Henderson (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 09:32:13 AM
Michigan -
out in 2004 Bay, Genesee, Ingham, Muskegon, Washtenaw, Wayne (too dem), Alcona, Allegan, Alpena, Antrim, Baraga, Barry, Benzie, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Clare, Clinton, Crawford, Dickinson, Eaton, Emmet, Gladwin, Grand Traverse, Gratiot, Hillsdale, Houghton, Huron, Ionia, Iosco, Jackson, Kalkaska, Kent, Keweenaw, Lapeer, Leelanau, Lenawee, Livingston, Luce, Mackinac, Mason, Mecosta, Menominee, Midland, Missaukee, Monroe, Montcalm, Montmorency, Newaygo, Oceana, Ogemaw, Ontonagon, Osceola, Oscoda, Otsego, Ottawa, Presque Isle, Roscommon, Saint Clair, Saint Joseph, Sanilac, Schoolcraft, Shiawassee, Tuscola,Van Buren, Wexford (too rep)
out in 2000 Lake, Saginaw (too dem), Alger, Delta (too rep)
out in 1996 Arenac, Gogebic, Iron, Marquette (too dem)
out in 1992 Manistee (too dem), Macomb, Oakland (too rep)
out in 1988 Isabella (too rep)
out in 1984 Kalamazoo (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 09:50:34 AM
Wisconsin -
out in 2004 Ashland, Bayfield, Buffalo, Crawford, Dane, Douglas, Eau Claire, Green, Iowa, Jackson, Kenosha, LaCrosse, Lafayette, Menominee, Milwaukee, Pepin, Portage, Rock, Trempealeau, Vernon (too dem), Brown, Calumet, Clark, Dodge, Florence, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Jefferson, Juneau, Kewaunee, Langlade, Manitowoc, Marathon, Marinette, Marquette, Monroe, Oconto, Outagamie, Ozaukee, Saint Croix, Sawyer, Shawano, Sheboygan, Taylor, Vilas, Walworth, Washington, Waukesha, Waupeca, Waushara, Winnebago (too rep)
out in 2000 Adams, Sauk (too dem), Door, Forest, Oneida, Price, Rusk, Wood (too rep)
out in 1996 Burnett, Dunn, Lincoln, Pierce, Polk (too dem)
out in 1992 Iron (too dem)
out in 1988 Columbia, Grant, Richland (too rep)
out in 1984 Chippewa (too dem)
out in 1976 Barron, Washburn (too dem)
out in 1972 Racine (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 10:14:33 AM
Minnesota-
out in 2004 Carlton, Freeborn, Hennepin, Itasca, Lake, Mower, Ramsey, Saint Louis, Swift (too dem), Aitkin, Anoka, Becker, Benton,Brown, Carver, Cass, Chisago, Clay, Clearwater, Cottonwood, Crow Wing, Dakota, Dodge, Douglas, Faribault, Goodhue, Houston, Hubbard, Isanti, Jackson, Kanabec, Kandiyohi, Lake of the Woods, Le Sueur, Lincoln, Lyon, McLeod, Marshall, Martin, Meeker, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Murray, Nobles, Olmsted, Otter Tail, Pennington, Pipestone, Polk, Red Lake, Redwood, Renville, Rock, Roseau, Scott, Sherburne, Sibley, Stearns, Steele, Stevens, Todd, Traverse, Wabasha, Wadena, Waseca, Washington, Watonwan, Wilkin, Wright (too rep)
out in 2000 Rice (too dem), Beltrami, Cook, Grant, Kittson, Koochiching, Mahnomen (too rep)
out in 1996 Lac qui Parle, Pine (too dem)
out in 1992 Fillmore, Nicollet, Norman, Winona (too rep)
out in 1988 Big Stone (too dem), Blue Earth, Chippewa (too rep)
out in 1984 Pope, Yellow Medicine (too rep)




Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 10:35:58 AM
Iowa-
out in 2004 Black Hawk, Buchanan, Cedar, Chickasaw, Clayton, Clinton, Des Moines, Dubuque, Floyd, Howard, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Johnson, Lee, Linn, Mitchell, Story, Wapello, Worth (too dem), Adair, Adams, Audubon, Buena Vista, Butler, Calhoun, Carroll, Cass, Cherokee, Clay, Crawford, Dallas, Davis, Decatur, Delaware, Dickinson, Emmet, Franklin, Fremont, Grundy, Guthrie, Hancock, Hardin, Harrison, Henry, Humboldt, Ida, Iowa, Keokuk, Kossuth, Lucas, Lyon, Madison, Mahaska, Marion, Mills, Montgomery, O'Brien, Osceola, Page, Plymouth, Pocahontas, Pottawattamie, Ringgold, Sac, Shelby, Sioux, Taylor, Union, Van Buren, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Winnebago, Wright (too rep)
out in 2000 Jones (too dem), Allamakee, Appanoose, Hamilton, Monona (too rep)
out in 1996 Benton, Boone, Clarke, Monroe (too dem), Woodbury (too rep)
out in 1988 Greene, Palo Alto, Polk, Webster (too dem), Bremer, Fayette, Louisa, Muscatine, Scott, Winneshiek (too rep)
out in 1984 Cedar (too rep)
out in 1980 Marshall, Tama (too rep)






Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 11:25:07 AM
Missouri -
out in 2004 Boone, Jackson, Jefferson, Pemiscot, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Louis, Saint Louis city, Washington (too dem), Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Audrain, Barry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Bollinger, Butler, Kramer, Callaway, Camden, Cape Girardeau, Carroll ,Carter, Cass, Cedar, Christian, Cole, Cooper, Crawford, Dade, Dallas, Davis, DeKalb, Denton, Douglas, Dunklin, Franklin, Gasconade, Gentry, Greene, Grundy, Henderson, Henry, Hickory, Holt, Howard, Howell, Jasper, Johnson, Knox, Laclede, Lafayette, Lawrence, Lewis, Lincoln, Linn, Livingston, McDonald, Macon, Madison, Maries, Marion, Mercer, Miller, Moniteau, Monroe, Montgomery, Morgan, Newton, Nodaway, Oregon, Osage, Ozark, Perry, Pettis, Phelps, Polk, Pulaski, Putnam, Ralls, Randolph, Reynolds, Ripley, Saint Charles, Saint Clair, Scotland, Scott, Shannon, Shelby, Stoddard, Stone, Sullivan, Taney, Texas, Vernon, Warren, Wayne, Webster, Worth, Wright (too rep)
out in 2000 Buchanan, Mississippi, New Madrid, Ray (too dem), Chariton, Schuyler (too rep)
out in 1996 Clark, Iron, Pike, Saint Francois, Saline (too dem), Platte (too rep)
out in 1988 Clinton (too dem)
out in 1960 Clay (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 11:30:53 AM
Delaware - I'll spare that a separate post.

Maryland -
out in 2004 Baltimore city, Montgomery, Prince George's (too dem), Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carrol, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Frederick, Garrett, Harford, Kent, Queen Anne's, Saint Mary's, Somerset, Talbot, Washington, Wicomico, Worcester (too rep)
out in 2000 Howard (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 11:56:59 AM
Virginia - Albemarle, Arlington, Brunswick, Buchanan, Caroline, Charles City, Dickenson, Fairfax, Greensville, Nelson, Northampton, Prince Edward, Surry, Sussex, Westmoreland counties, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Covington, Danville, Emporia, Fairfax, Falls Church, Franklin, Fredericksburg, Hampton, Lexington, Martinsville, Newport News, Norfolk, Petersburg, Portsmouth, Richmond, Roanoke, Wiliamsburg cities (too dem), Accomack, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Augusta, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, Campbell, Carroll, Charlotte, Chesterfield, Clarke, Craig, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fauquier, Floyd, Fluvanna, Franklin, Frederick, Giles, Gloucester, Goochland, Grayson, Greene, Halifax, Hanover, Henry, Highland, Isle of Wight, James City, King George, King William, Lancaster, Lee, Louisa, Madison, Mathews, Mecklenburg, Middlesex, New Kent, Northumberland, Orange, Page, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Powhatan, Prince George, Pulaski, Richmond, Roanoke, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Scott, Shenandoah, Smyth, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Tazewell, Warren, Washington, Wise, Wythe, York counties, Bedford, Bristol, Buena Vista, Chesapeake, Colonial Heights, Galax, Poquoson, Salem, Staunton, Virginia Beach, Waynesboro, Winchester cities (too rep)
out in 2000 King and Queen, Russell, Southampton counties, Norton, Radford, Suffolk cities (too dem), Loudoun county, Harrisonburg, Manassas Park cities (too rep)
out in 1996 Alleghany, Buckingham counties (too dem), Henrico county, Hopewell, Manassas cities (too rep)
out in 1992 Prince William county, Lynchburg city (too rep. From here on, all are counties)
out in 1988 Lunenburg (too dem)
out in 1984 Nottoway (too dem)
out in 1980 Montgomery, Rappahannock (too dem)
out in 1972 Essex (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 20, 2005, 12:09:04 PM
West Virginia -
out in 2004 Boone, Braxton, Brooke, Fayette, Hancock, Jefferson, Kanawha, Lincoln, Logan, McDowell, Marion, Mingo, Monongalia, Nicholas, Webster, Wetzel, Wyoming (too dem), Barbour, Berkeley, Doddridge, Grant, Hampshire, Hardy, Lewis, Mineral, Monroe, Morgan, Pendleton, Pleasants, Pocahontas, Preston, Putnam, Raleigh, Ritchie, Taylor, Tucker, Tyler, Upshur, Wirt, Wood (too rep)
out in 2000 Harrison, Summers, Wayne (too dem), Calhoun, Gilmer, Jackson, Randolph, Roane (too rep)
out in 1996 Cabell, Mercer, Ohio (too rep)
out in 1992 Clay, Marshall (too dem)
out in 1980 Mason (too rep)
out in 1972 Greenbrier (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 21, 2005, 08:21:22 AM
North Carolina -
out in 2004 Anson, Bertie, Bladen, Buncombe, Caswell, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland, Durham, Edgecombe, Gates, Granville, Guilford, Halifax, Hertford, Hoke, Jackson, Martin, Mecklenburg, Northampton, Orange, Pasquotank, Richmond, Robeson, Scotland, Swain, Vance, Wake, Warren, Washington, Watauga, Wilson, Yancey (too dem), Alamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Beaufort, Brunswick, Burke, Cabarrus, Kramer, Camden, Carteret, Catawba, Cherokee, Clay, Cleveland, Craven, Currituck, Dare, Davidson, Davie, Gaston, Graham, Greene, Harnett, Henderson, Iredell, Johnston, Lee, Lincoln, McDowell, Macon, Mitchell, Moore, Onslow, Pamlico, Pender, Perquimans, Person, Randolph, Rockingham, Rowan, Rutherford, Stanly, Stokes, Surry, Transylvania, Union, Wayne, Wilkes, Yadkin (too rep)
out in 2000 Chowan, Franklin, Hyde, Jones (too dem), Nash, Polk (too rep)
out in 1996 Duplin, Haywood, Madison, Montgomery, Tyrrell (too dem), Forsyth (too rep)
out in 1992 New Hanover (too rep)
out in 1988 Pitt, Sampson (too dem)
out in 1980 Lenoir (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 21, 2005, 08:31:09 AM
South Carolina
out in 2004 Abbeville, Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun, Charleston, Chester, Chesterfield, Clarendon, Colleton, Darlington, Dillon , Fairfield, Georgetown, Hampton, Jasper, Lee, McCormick, Marion, Marlboro, Orangeburg, Richland, Sumter, Union, Williamsburg (too dem), Aiken, Anderson, Berkeley, Cherokee, Dorchester, Greenville, Greenwood, Horry, Kershaw, Lancaster, Lexington, Newberry, Oconee, Pickens, Spartanburg, York (too rep). The ultra-republicanness of the heavily populated SC Piedmont leads to a partial reversal of the traditional roles in SC - once you normalize for the result, the Reps are the "few big counties" party!
out in 2000 Edgefield (too dem)
out in 1996 Beaufort (too rep)
out in 1984 Florence (too dem)
out in 1980 Laurens, Saluda (too dem)



Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 21, 2005, 08:45:08 AM
Georgia. The horror (no. of counties...) - okay whatever. If a county's not listed it's "out in 2004 (too rep)"
out in 2004 Baker, Baldwin, Bibb, Burke, Calhoun, Chatham, Chattahoochee, Clarke, Clay, Clayton, DeKalb, Dooly, Dougherty, Fulton, Hancock, Jefferson, Liberty, McIntosh, Macon, Meriwether, Mitchell, Muscogee, Peach, Quitman, Randolph, Richmond, Stewart, Sumter, Talbot, Taliaferro, Terrell, Twiggs, Warren, Washington, Webster, Wilkes, Wilkinson (too dem)
out in 2000 Ben Hill, Jenkins, Screven, Taylor, Telfair, Wheeler (too dem), Rockdale (too rep)
out in 1996 Brooks, Early, Elbert, Greene, Marion, Seminole (too dem)
out in 1992 Lowndes (too rep)
out in 1980 Decatur (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 21, 2005, 08:56:46 AM
Florida-
out in 2004 Alachua, Broward, Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Orange, Palm Beach, Saint Lucie, Volusia (too dem), Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, De Soto, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Franklin, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Holmes, Indian River, Jackson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Levy, Liberty, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Nassau, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, Polk, Putnam, Saint Johns, Santa Rosa, Seminole, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, Washington (too rep)
out in 2000 Sarasota (too rep)
out in 1996 Hernando, Pasco (too dem)
out in 1992 Madison (too dem), Osceola (too rep)
out in 1984 Flagler (too dem)
out in 1980 Hillsborough (too dem)
out in 1976 Pinellas (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2005, 06:07:05 AM
Kentucky -
out in 2004 Bath, Boyd, Breathitt, Carroll, Carter, Elliott, Fayette, Floyd, Franklin, Fulton, Greenup, Henderson, Jefferson, Knott, Letcher, Livingston, Lyon, Magoffin, Marion, Menifee, Montgomery, Morgan, Muhlenberg, Nicholas, Perry, Pike, Powell, Rowan, Wolfe (too dem), Adair, Anderson, Barren, Boone, Boyle, Bracken, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Kramer, Campbell, Casey, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton, Crittenden, Cumberland, Edmonson, Estill, Garrard, Grant, Grayson, Greene, Hardin, Harrison, Hart, Henry, Hopkins, Jackson, Jessamine, Johnson, Kenton, Knox, Larue, Laurel, Lee, Leslie, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, McCreary, Martin, Meade, Mercer, Metcalfe, Monroe, Ohio, Oldham, Owen, Owsley, Pendleton, Pike, Rockcastle, Russell, Scott, Shelby, Spencer, Taylor, Todd, Trigg, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Whitley (too rep)
out in 2000 Ballard, Bell, Carlisle, Harlan, Hickman, Marshall, Simpson, Union, Webster (too dem), Fleming, Mason, Robertson, Trimble (too rep)
out in 1996 Bourbon, Gallatin, Graves, Lawrence, McCracken, McLean, Nelson (too dem); Madison (too rep)
out in 1992 Calloway, Hancock (too dem),  Woodford (too rep)
out in 1972 Daviess (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2005, 06:33:59 AM
Tennessee-
out in 2004 Benton, Cannon, Clay, Davidson, Decatur, DeKalb, Franklin, Giles, Grundy, Hardeman, Haywood, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Jackson, Lake, Lauderdale, Marion, Overton, Perry, Shelby, Smith, Stewart, Trousdale, Van Buren, Warren (too dem), Bedford, Blount, Bradley, Carter, Cheatham, Chester, Claiborne, Cocke, Cumberland, Dyer, Fayette, Fentress, Granger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock, Hardin, Hawkins, Henderson, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lawrence, Lincoln, Loudon, McMinn, Macon, Meigs, Monroe, Moore, Morgan, Pickett, Rhea, Roane, Robertson, Rutherford, Sevier, Sullivan, Sumner, Tipton, Unicoi, Union, Washington, Wayne, Williamson, Wilson (too rep)
out in 2000 Campbell, Dickson, Gibson, Henry, Lewis, Marshall, White (too dem), Bledsoe, Hamilton, McNairy, Scott, Sequatchie (too rep)
out in 1996 Crockett, Maury, Obion, Polk, Weakley (too dem), Madison (too rep)
out in 1992 Coffee, Putnam (too dem)
out in 1988 Anderson (too rep)
out in 1980 Montgomery (too dem)
out in 1964 Carroll (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2005, 07:20:01 AM
Alabama-
out in 2004 Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Chambers, Choctaw, Clarke, Colbert, Conecuh, Coosa, Dallas, Greene, Hale, Jackson, Jefferson, Lawrence, Lowndes, Macon, Madison, Marengo, Mobile, Montgomery, Perry, Pickens, Russell, Sumter, Wilcox (too dem), Autauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton, Clay, Cleburne, Coffee, Covington, Crenshaw, Cullman, Dale, DeKalb, Elmore, Escambia, Fayette, Geneva, Henry,  Houston, Lamar, Limestone, Marion, Marshall, Morgan, Randolph, Saint Clair, Shelby, Tallapoosa, Walker, Winston (too rep)
out in 2000 Etowah, Washington (too dem), Lee (too rep)
out in 1996 Franklin, Lauderdale (too dem)
out in 1980 Pike (too rep)
out in 1976 Talladega (too dem), Monroe (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2005, 08:19:33 AM
Miss Sippy -
out in 2004 Adams, Benton, Bolivar, Chickasaw, Claiborne, Clay, Coahoma, Copiah, Hinds, Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Jasper, Jefferson, Jefferson Davis, Kemper, Leflore, Lowndes, Marshall, Montgomery, Noxubee, Oktibbeha, Panola, Pike, Quitman, Sharkey, Sunflower, Tallahatchie, Tunica, Washington, Wilkinson, Yalobusha, Yazoo (too dem), Calhoun, Carroll, Choctaw, Clarke, DeSoto, Franklin, George, Greene, Hancock, Harrison, Itawamba, Jackson, Jones, Lamar, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Lee, Lincoln, Madison, Marion, Neshoba, Newton, Pearl River, Perry, Pontotoc, Prentiss, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith, Stone, Tippah, Tishomingo, Union, Wayne, Webster (too rep)
out in 2000  Grenada, Monroe, Winston (too dem), Covington (too rep)
out in 1996 Alcorn, Amite, Walthall (too dem), Forrest (too rep)
out in 1992 Lafayette (too dem)
out in 1984 Attala (too dem)
out in 1980 Leake, Tate (too dem), Warren (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2005, 08:34:34 AM
Arkansas- Bradley, Chicot, Clark, Clay, Conway, Crittenden, Dallas, Desha, Fulton, Hempstead, Hot Spring, Izard, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lawrence, Lee, Lincoln, Little River, Mississippi, Monroe, Nevada, Ouachita, Phillips, Poinsett, Pulaski, Randolph, Saint Francis, Woodruff (too dem), Baxter, Benton, Boone, Calhoun, Carroll, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Grant, Independence, Logan, Lonoke, Madison, Marion, Miller, Montgomery, Newton, Pike, Polk, Pope, Saline, Scott, Searcy, Sebastian, Stone, Union, White (too rep)
out in 2000 Ashley, Craighead, Cross, Drew, Greene (too dem), Perry, Washington (too rep)
out in 1996 Arkansas, Howard, Prairie, Sevier, Yell (too dem)
out in 1988 Garland (too rep)
out in 1984 Sharp (too rep)
out in 1976 Johnson, Van Buren (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2005, 08:46:39 AM
Louisiana
out in 2004 Assumption, Avoyelles, Bienville, Caddo, East Carroll, Iberville, Madison, Orleans, Pointe Coupee, Red River, Saint Helena, Saint James, Saint John the Baptist, Saint Landry, Saint Martin, Tensas, West Baton Rouge (too dem), Acadia, Ascension, Beauregard, Bossier, Kramer, Cameron, Catahoula, Concordia, Franklin, Grant, Iberia, Jackson, Jefferson, Jefferson Davis, Lafayette, Lafourche, La Salle, Livingston, Ouachita, Plaquemines, Rapides, Richland, Sabine, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Terrebonne, Union, Vermilion, Vernon, Washington, Webster, West Carroll, Winn (too rep)
out in 2000 Allen, De Soto, East Feliciana (too dem), Lincoln (too rep)
out in 1996 Evangeline, Natchitoches, West Feliciana (too dem), East Baton Rouge (too rep)
out in 1992 Calcasieu (too dem)
out in 1988 Morehouse (too rep)
out in 1976 Claiborne (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: Gabu on December 22, 2005, 09:10:58 AM
I can fill in some of the "pre-1960" ones...

Massachusetts - Middlesex since at least 1960 (despite never voting for Reagan)

Middlesex was last off in 1952, at which time it voted for Eisenhower with a margin 14.27% when the statewide margin was only 8.76%, a differential of 5.51%.

So Middlesex is since 1956.

New Jersey - Burlington, Passaic since at least 1960

Burlington was first off in 1956, when it voted for Eisenhower by a margin of only 22.23%, while the statewide margin was 30.45%, a differential of 8.22%.

Passaic was first off in 1956, when it voted for Eisenhower by a margin of only 23.59%, while the statewide margin was 30.45%, a differential of 6.86%.

So both are since 1960.

Iowa - Poweshiek since at least 1960 (it's tiny, too!)

Poweshiek was last off in 1928 (!) when it voted for Hoover by a margin of 30.32% when the statewide margin was only 24.20%, a differential of 6.12%.

So Poweshiek is since 1932.


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: A18 on December 22, 2005, 09:14:26 AM
Nice waste of time


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2005, 09:22:28 AM
Thank you. Finally some comment. I feel so honoured.

Thanks, Gabu! I'll edit it in. What about Tuscaloosa?


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2005, 10:10:16 AM
Oklahoma -
out in 2004 Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal, Craig, Haskell, Hughes, Jefferson, Johnston, Latimer, LeFlore, Love, McIntosh, Marshall, Mayes, Muskogee, Nowata, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Osage, Ottawa, Pittsburg, Pottawatomie, Seminole, Sequoyah (too dem), Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Canadian, Cimarron, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Garfield, Grady, Grant, Harmon, Harper, Jackson, Kay, Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan, McClain, Major, Noble, Roger Mills, Stephens, Texas, Washington, Wash**ta, Woods, Woodward (too rep)
out in 2000 Cotton, Creek, Delaware, Garvin, Kiowa, Murray, Pawnee, Pontotoc, Pushmataha, Tillman (too dem), McCurtain (too rep)
out in 1996 Adair, Carter, Greer (too dem), Cleveland, Oklahoma, Rogers, Tulsa (too rep)
out in 1984 Payne (too rep)
out in 1976 Wagoner (too dem)
out in 1972 Comanche (too rep)



Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2005, 10:25:41 AM
Hate that Forum Censor.

Texas. I'll once again do what I did in Georgia.
out in 2004 Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Brewster, Brooks, Kramer, Cameron, Culberson, Dallas, Dimmit, Duval, El Paso, Falls, Fort Bend, Frio, Galveston, Harris, Hays, Hidalgo, Jefferson, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Kenedy, Kleberg, LaSalle, Marion, Maverick, Morris, Newton, Nueces, Presidio, Reeves, Robertson, Travis, Waller, Webb, Willacy, Zapata, Zavala (too dem), hundreds of counties (too rep)
out in 2000 Calhoun, Camp, Cass, Fisher, Foard, Milam, Red River, San Augustine, San Patricio, Val Verde (too dem)
out in 1996 Atascosa, Harrison, Orange (too dem)
out in 1988 Uvalde (too dem), Tarrant (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: Gabu on December 22, 2005, 09:57:04 PM
Thanks, Gabu! I'll edit it in. What about Tuscaloosa?

Tuscaloosa was first off in 1956, when it voted for Stevenson by 23.13%, while the statewide margin was only 17.14%, a differential of 5.99%.

So Tuscaloosa is since 1960.


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 11:12:28 AM
Kansas -
out in 2004 Atchison, Crawford, Douglas, Labette, Leavenworth, Lyon, Shawnee, Wyandotte (too dem), Allen, Anderson, Barber, Barton, Bourbon, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cheyenne, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Coffee, Comanche, Cowley, Decatur, Dickinson, Doniphan, Edwards, Elk, Ellis, Ellsworth, Finney, Ford, Gove, Graham, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Greenwood, Hamilton, Harper, Haskell, Hodgeman, Jewell, Kearney, Kingman, Kiowa, Lane, Lincoln, Logan, McPherson, Marion, Meade, Mitchell, Montgomery, Morris, Morton, Nemaha, Neosho, Ness, Norton, Osborne, Ottawa, Pawnee, Phillips, Pottawatomie, Pratt, Rawlins, Reno, Republic, Rice, Rooks, Rush, Russell, Saline, Scott, Seward, Sheridan, Sherman, Smith, Stafford, Stanton, Stevens, Sumner, Thomas, Trego, Wabaunsee, Wallace, Washington, Wichita, Wilson, Woodson (too rep)
out in 2000 Cherokee (too dem), Franklin, Harvey (too rep)
out in 1996 Jackson, Linn, Miami (too dem)
out in 1992 Johnson (too rep), Jefferson (too ind)*
out in 1984 Sedgwick (too dem)
out in 1980 Geary (too dem),Marshall (too rep)
out in 1976 Riley (too rep)
out in 1972 Osage (too rep)

* Notice that figures are based on (first in state minus second in state) compared with (first in state minus first (or second if same) in county). That is to say, for 1992 I'm comparing Bush's lead on whoever came second statewide, with Bush's lead, or distance to leader, on whoever came second, or first, in the county. Bush won Kansas by 5.2 points on Clinton that year. He beat Clinton 0.4 points in Jefferson County, but lost to Perot by 1.0 point. This is the first time so far that this detail makes a difference to the result. If we're looking just at the statewide first-statewide second difference, Jefferson Co survives until 1980, when it is too rep.


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 11:26:31 AM
Nebraska -
out in 2004 Dakota, Douglas, Gage, Johnson, Lancaster, Saline, Thurston (too dem), Adams, Antelope, Arthur, Banner, Blaine, Boone, Boyd, Brown, Buffalo, Butler, Cedar, Chase, Cherry, Cheyenne, Clay, Colfax, Cuming, Custer, Dawes, Dawson, Deuel, Dundas, Dundy, Fillmore, Franklin, Frontier, Furnas, Garden, Garfield, Gosper, Grant, Greeley, Hall, Hamilton, Harlan, Hayes, Hitchcock, Holt, Hooker, Kearney, Keith, Keya Paha, Kimball, Knox, Logan, Loup, McPherson, Madison, Merrick, Morrill, Nance, Nemaha, Nuckolls, Pawnee, Perkins, Phelps, Pierce, Platte, Polk, Red Willow, Rock, Sarpy, Scotts Bluff, Seward, Sheridan, Sherman, Sioux, Stanton, Thayer, Thomas, Valley, Washington, Wayne, Webster, Wheeler, York (too rep)
out in 2000 Dixon (too rep)
out in 1996 Burt, Jefferson, Richardson (too dem)
out in 1992 Box Butte (too dem), Howard (too ind)*
out in 1988 Cass, Dodge, Lincoln, Saunders (too dem)
out in 1980 Otoe (too rep)
*see Kansas. Out in 1988 (too dem) if Perot ignored.


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 03:42:20 PM
South Dakota-
out in 2004 Bennett, Brown, Buffalo, Charles Mix, Clay, Corson, Day, Dewey, Lake, Lyman, Marshall, Miner, Minnehaha, Moody, Roberts, Shannon, Todd, Union, Ziebach (too dem), Butte, Campbell, Custer, Douglas, Edmunds, Fall River, Faulk, Gregory, Haakon, Hamlin, Hand, Hanson, Hardin, Hughes, Hutchinson, Hyde, Jones, Lawrence, Lincoln, McPherson, Meade, Pennington, Perkins, Potter, Stanley, Sully, Tripp, Turner, Walworth (too rep)
out in 2000 Beadle, Brookings, Deuel, Jerauld, Yankton (too dem), Jackson, Mellette (too rep)
out in 1996 Bon Homme, Brule, Kingsbury (too dem)
out in 1992 Aurora, Davison, Sanborn, Spink (too dem)
out in 1988 McCook (too dem)
out in 1980 Clark (too rep)
out in 1976 Grant (too dem)
out in 1972 Codington (too dem)
Interesting how the results are skewed by one big overwhelming factor - the massive increase in Sioux dem turnout that is largely why SD trended dem in 2004. (Jackson and Mellette are about 50% Native American in population, though less in voting age population. There is only other county to be "too rep" before 2004.)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 03:56:02 PM
North Dakota -
out in 2004 Benson, Cass, Divide, Eddy, Grand Forks, Mountrail, Nelson, Ramsey, Ransom, Rolette, Sargent, Sioux, Steele, Towner, Traill (too dem), Adams, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh, Dickey, Dunn, Emmons, Foster, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McIntosh, McKenzie, Mercer, Morton, Oliver, Pierce, Sheridan, Slope, Stark, Ward, Williams (too rep)
out in 2000 Pembina, Wells (too rep)
out in 1992 McHenry, Renville (too dem), Cavalier (too rep)
out in 1984 Griggs (too dem)
out in 1980 Barnes, Richland (too dem)
out in 1976 McLean, Walsh (too dem)



Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 04:22:27 PM
Montana -
out in 2004 Big Horn, Blaine, Deer Lodge, Gallatin, Glacier, Hill, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Roosevelt, Rosebud, Sheridan, Silver Bow (too dem), Beaverhead, Broadwater, Carbon, Carter, Chouteau, Custer, Daniels, Dawson, Fallon, Fergus, Flathead, Garfield, Golden Valley, Granite, Jefferson, Judith Basin, Liberty, Lincoln, McCone, Madison, Meagher, Mineral, Musselshell, Petroleum, Phillips, Pondera, Powder River, Powell, Prairie, Ravalli, Richland, Sanders, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, Teton, Toole, Treasure, Valley ,Wheatland, Wibaux (too rep)
out in 2000 Cascade (too dem), Park (too rep)
out in 1992 Yellowstone (too rep)
out in 1980 Lake (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 04:30:23 PM
Idaho - rather uninformative result.
Ada, Bannock, Blaine, Bonner, Latah, Nez Perce, Shoshone, Teton, Valley (too dem), Adams, Bear Lake, Bingham, Boise, Bonneville, Butte, Camas, Canyon, Caribou, Cassia, Clark, Custer, Elmore, Franklin, Fremont, Gem, Gooding, Idaho, Jefferson, Jerome, Lemhi, Lewis, Lincoln, Madison, Minidoka, Oneida, Owyhee, Payette, Power, Twin Falls, Washington (too rep)
out in 2000 Kootenai (too dem), Benewah, Boundary, Clearwater (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 04:37:59 PM
Wyoming -
out in 2004 Albany, Laramie, Sweetwater, Teton (too dem), Big Horn, Campbell, Converse, Crook, Hot Springs, Johnson, Lincoln, Niobrara, Park, Sublette, Uinta, Washakie, Weston (too rep)
out in 2000 Carbon, Natrona (too dem)
out in 1996 Goshen (too rep)
out in 1988 Sheridan (too dem)
out in 1980 Platte (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 05:00:17 PM
Colorado
out in 2004 Adams, Boulder, Clear Creek, Conejos, Costilla, Denver, Eagle, Gilpin, Gunnison, Lake, La Plata, Las Animas, Pitkin, Pueblo, Routt, Saguache, San Juan, San Miguel, Summit (too dem), Archuleta, Baca, Bent, Chaffee, Cheyenne, Crowley, Custer, Delta, Dolores, Douglas, Elbert, El Paso, Fremont, Grand, Hinsdale, Jackson, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Mesa, Mineral, Moffat, Montezuma, Montrose, Morgan, Otero, Park, Phillips, Prowers, Rio Blanco, Rio Grande, Sedgwick, Teller, Washington, Weld, Yuma (too rep)
out in 2000 Huerfano (too dem), Garfield, Larimer, Ouray (too rep)
out in 1996 Alamosa (too dem), Arapahoe (too rep)
out in 1992 Jefferson (too rep)
An extra problem posed by Broomfield County, created from parts of four counties past 2000 and within bellwether range in 2004.


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 05:07:55 PM
New Mexico -
out in 2004 Cibola, Grant, Guadalupe, McKinley, Mora, Rio Arriba, San Miguel, Santa Fe, Taos (too dem), Catron, Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Harding, Hidalgo, Lea, Lincoln, Luna, Otero, Quay, Roosevelt, San Juan, Sierra, Torrance, Union, Valencia (too rep)
out in 2000 Dona Ana (too dem), Los Alamos (too rep)
out in 1996 Colfax, Socorro (too dem)
out in 1984 Sandoval (too dem)
out in 1976 Bernalillo (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 05:11:36 PM
Arizona -
out in 2004 Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz (too dem), Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Mohave, Yavapai, Yuma (too rep)
out in 1996 Navajo, Pinal (too dem)
out in 1992 Maricopa (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 05:25:53 PM
Deseret -
out in 2004 Carbon, Grand, Salt Lake, San Juan, Summit (too dem), Beaver, Box Elder, Cache, Daggett, Davis, Duchesne, Emery, Garfield, Iron, Juab, Kane, Millard, Morgan, Piute, Rich, Sanpete, Sevier, Uintah, Utah, Washington, Wayne (too rep)
out in 2000 Tooele, Weber (too dem)
out in 1988 Wasatch (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 05:28:14 PM
Nevada -
out in 2004 Clark (too dem), Carson City city, Churchill, Douglas, Elko, Esmeralda, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lincoln, Lyon, Mineral, Nye, Pershing, Storey, White Pine (too rep)
out in 2000 Washoe (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 05:38:38 PM
Wahsintone
out in 2004 Jefferson, King, San Juan, Thurston (too dem), Adams, Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Clark, Columbia, Douglas, Ferry, Franklin, Garfield, Grant, Island, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Skagit, Skamania, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, Whitman, Yakima (too rep)
out in 2000 Whatcom (too rep)
out in 1996 Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Pacific, Pierce (too dem)
out in 1992 Kitsap (too rep)
out in 1976 Mason (too dem)
out in 1968 Snohomish (too dem) (even though it's actually a bad bellwether as to who wins the state, going dem in 76 but rep in 88 - the state's closest recent elections)



Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 05:43:22 PM
Oregon -
out in 2004 Benton, Clatsop, Hood River, Lane, Lincoln, Multnomah (too dem), Baker, Clackamas, Coos, Crook, Curry, Deschutes, Douglas, Gilliam, Grant, Harney, Jackson, Jefferson, Josephine, Klamath, Lake, Linn, Malheur, Marion, Morrow, Polk, Sherman, Tillamook, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, Wasco, Wheeler, Yamhill (too rep)
out in 1996 Columbia (too dem)
out in 1988 Washington (too rep)

Hawaii (doesn't deserve a post of its own)
out in 2004 Hawaii, Kauai, Maui (too dem), Honolulu (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 23, 2005, 06:11:54 PM
Alta California -
out in 2004 Alameda, Contra Costa, Humboldt, Los Angeles, Marin, Mendocino, Monterey, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano, Sonoma, Yolo (too dem), Amador, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Inyo, Kern, Kings, Lassen, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Orange, Placer, Plumas, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity, Tulare, Tuolumne, Ventura, Yuba (too rep)
out in 2000 Alpine, Santa Barbara (too rep)
out in 1996 Imperial (too dem)
out in 1988 Lake (too dem), San Benito (too rep)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: Gabu on December 24, 2005, 06:46:03 PM

Stutsman was first off in 1952, when it voted for Eisenhower by a margin of only 35.87%, while the statewide margin was 42.58%, a differential of 6.71%.

So Stutsman is since 1956.


Fremont was first off in 1956, when it voted for Eisenhower by a margin of 31.09%, while the statewide margin was only 20.16%, a differential of 10.93%.

So Fremont is since 1960.


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 26, 2005, 07:14:13 AM
Hotdamn, I'm such a putz. I just threw away my list. I'll have to do it again for the West incl. the Plains...not today.


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 26, 2005, 08:58:48 AM
Maine - Penobscot, Somerset, Washington, all out in 1996 (too dem)
New Hampshire - Carroll, Coos out in 2000 (too rep), Hillsborough, Rockingham out in 1992 (too rep)
Vermont - Caledonia, out in 2000 (too rep)
Connecticut - Litchfield, out in 1992 (too rep)
New York - Cayuga, Niagara, Rensselaer, Rockland, Suffolk, Sullivan (too dem), Essex (too rep), all out in 2000, Cortland, Dutchess, Oswego, Saratoga, all out in 1992 (too rep), Otsego, Seneca, out in 1984 (too rep)
New Jersey - Salem, out in 2000 (too dem), Somerset, out in 1996 (too rep)
Pennsylvania - Greene, Lawrence, Washington (too dem), Berks, Centre, Chester, Warren (too rep), all out in 2000,  Cambria (too dem), Lehigh, Monroe (too rep), out in 1996, Mercer, out in 1992 (too dem), Carbon, Northampton, out in 1984 (too dem)
Ohio - Hamilton, Hocking, Lake, Wood, out in 2000 (too rep) Harrison, Pike, out in 1996 (too dem), Columbiana (too dem), Clark, Montgomery, Perry (too rep), all out in 1988, Scioto (too dem), Stark (too rep), out in 1980, Ottawa, out in 1976 (too dem)
Indiana - LaPorte, Perry, Vermillion (too dem), Marion (too rep), all out in 1996, Saint Joseph, out in 1988 (too dem), Vigo still in in 1960


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 26, 2005, 09:21:52 AM
Illinois - Gallatin, Macoupin, Mercer, Putnam (too dem), DeKalb, Warren (too rep), all out in 2000, Calhoun, LaSalle (too dem), Lake, Winnebago (too rep), out in 1996, Montgomery out in 1992 (too dem), Henry (too dem), McDonough, Will (too rep), out in 1988, Peoria out in 1984 (too dem), Champaign out in 1980 (too rep)
Michigan - Delta, Menominee, Presque Isle, out in 2000 (too rep), Alger, Alpena, Arenac, Clare, Gladwin, Iosco, Iron, Manistee, Ogemaw, Roscommon, Schoolcraft, all out in 1996 (too dem), Macomb, Oakland, out in 1992 (too rep), Isabella, Van Buren, out in 1988 (too rep), Calhoun, Shiawassee, out in 1984 (too rep), Monroe out in 1972 (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 26, 2005, 04:45:45 PM
Wisconsin - Clark, Door, Forest, Oneida, Price, Rusk, Sawyer, Winnebago, Wood, out in 2000 (all too rep), Burnett, Polk, out in 1996 (too dem), Iron out in 1992 (too dem), Barron, Chippewa, Juneau, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Racine, out in 1988 (all too dem), Washburn (too dem), Grant, Richland (too rep), out in 1984, Columbia, Monroe, out in 1976 (too rep)
Minnesota - Beltrami, Clay, Grant, Houston, Jackson, Kittson, Koochiching, Olmsted, Stevens, Traverse, Wabasha, out in 2000 (all too rep), Aitkin, Anoka,  Big Stone, Pine, Pope, Washington, out in 1996 (all too dem), Dakota, Lincoln, Yellow Medicine, out in 1992 (too dem), Goodhue, Nicollet, out in 1988 (too dem), Fillmore, out in 1980 (too rep)
Iowa - Allamakee, Appanoose, Decatur, Delaware, Monona, Union, out in 2000 (all too rep), Benton, Boone, Emmet, Jones, Mitchell, Monroe (all too dem), Woodbury (too rep), out in 1996 , Palo Alto, out in 1992 (too dem), Bremer, Cedar, Fayette, Louisa, Marshall, Poweshiek, Scott, Tama, Warren, Winneshiek, all out in 1988 (too dem)
Missouri - Pemiscot, out in 2000, Iron, New Madrid, Ray, Saint Francois, Washington, out in 1996, Boone, Buchanan, Jefferson, out in 1992, Clay out in 1988 (all too dem)
Maryland - Kent out in 2000, Charles out in 1996, both too rep
Virginia - Dickenson county, Norton city (too dem), Albemarle, Essex, Prince William counties, Danville city (too rep), all out in 2000, Caroline, Nelson, Northampton (too dem), Prince Edward (too rep) counties, out in 1996, Buckingham county, out in 1992 (too rep), King and Queen county, Radford city, out in 1988 (too rep), Suffolk city, out in 1984 (too dem), Westmoreland county, out in 1976 (too dem)
West Virginia - Lincoln, Marion (too dem), Wetzel (too rep), out in 2000, Braxton, Hancock, Kanawha, Nicholas, out in 1996 (too dem), Monongalia, out in 1992 (too dem), Jefferson out in 1980 (too dem)
North Carolina - Bladen, Columbus (too dem), Buncombe, Pitt, Wake, Watauga, Wilson, Yancey (all too rep), out in 2000, Guilford, out in 1996 (too rep), Caswell, Chatham, Granville, Jackson, Martin, out in 1992 (all too dem), Cumberland out in 1980 (too dem)
South Carolina - Barnwell, Charleston, Darlington, Sumter, out in 2000 (too rep), Chester, Chesterfield, out in 1996 (too dem), Calhoun, Colleton, out in 1984 (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 26, 2005, 05:37:36 PM
Georgia - McIntosh, Twiggs out in 2000 (too dem), Burke, Mitchell, Terrell, Wilkinson out in 1996 (too dem), Baldwin, Bibb, Peach (too dem), Chatham (too rep), out in 1992, Sumter out in 1984 (too dem)
Florida - Volusia out in 2000 (too dem), Hillsborough, Orange out in 1996 (too rep), Madison (too dem), Osceola, Pinellas (too rep), out in 1992, Flagler, Hernando, Monroe, out in 1988 (too rep)
Kentucky - Fulton, Letcher, Muhlenberg (too dem), Carter, Fayette, Marion, Morgan (too rep), all out in 2000, Boyd, Franklin, Magoffin, Perry, out in 1996 (too dem), Greenup, Jefferson, out in 1992 (too dem)
Tennessee - Clay, DeKalb, Hickman, Marion, Perry, Warren, out in 2000, Decatur out in 1992 (all too dem)
Alabama - Russell out in 2000 (too dem), Montgomery out in 1996 (too rep), Marengo out in 1988 (too dem)
Mississippi - Pike out in 2000 (too rep), Panola out in 1996 (too dem), Yazoo out in 1992 (too rep), Chickasaw out in 1980 (too dem)
Arkansas - Izard, Lafayette, Little River, Ouachita, out in 2000, Conway, Craighead, Dallas, Drew, Fulton, Greene, Hot Spring, Nevada, out in 1996 (all too dem)
Louisiana - Madison, Pointe Coupee, Saint Landry, Tensas, out in 2000, Bienville, Caddo, out in 1996 (all too dem)
Oklahoma - McIntosh, Okmulgee, out in 2000, Coal out in 1996, Cherokee out in 1992 (all too dem)
Texas - Cameron, Culberson, Frio, Kenedy, Reeves (too dem), Brewster, Dallas (too rep), all out in 2000, Morris, out in 1996 (too dem)


Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: minionofmidas on December 27, 2005, 12:10:16 PM
North Dakota - Mountrail, Ransom, Sargent, Steele, all out in 2000 (too rep)
South Dakota - Bennett, Marshall, Roberts, out in 2000 (too rep), Moody out in 1996 (too dem)
Nebraska - Thurston out in 2000 (too rep)
Kansas - Crawford out in 1992 (too dem)
Montana - Blaine out in 2000 (too rep)
Idaho - Latah out in 2000 (too rep)
Colorado - Broomfield created after 2000, Adams, Las Animas (too dem), Alamosa, Arapahoe, Jefferson, Larimer, Ouray (too rep), all out in 2000, Conejos, Huerfano out in 1996 (too dem)
New Mexico - Los Alamos out in 2000 (too rep), Colfax out in 1992 (too dem), Sandoval out in 1988 (too dem)
Utah - Grand, Summit out in 2000 (too rep)
Nevada - Washoe out in 2000 (too rep)
Washington - Pierce (too dem), Clallam, Island, Skamania, Wahkiakum, Whitman (too rep), all out in 2000, Clark out in 1988 (too dem), Skagit out in 1960 (too rep)
Oregon - Wasco out in 2000 (too rep), Tillamook out in 1996 (too dem), Clackamas out in 1988 (too dem)
California - Mono, San Luis Obispo out in 2000 (too rep), San Diego, San Joaquin, Ventura out in 1996 (too rep), Sacramento out in 1984 (too dem)



Title: Re: Another bellwether measurement, or another waste of time
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 10, 2020, 06:25:06 PM
did Biden winning inner city keya paha