Talk Elections

Rashida Tlaib

Great post, I would love to see her be the D nominee in 2024.

Gretchen Whitmer

Depends on who he beats in 2020.

Far too early to tell. Newsom, Whitmer, Chris Murphy, Duckworth, Merkley, Cortez Masto, Baldwin, Brown, and Cooper all seem like they might go for the nomination. Maybe one of the also-rans from this year, like Harris, Booker or Klobuchar. I don't see AOC getting it, especially if the losing 2020 nominee is Warren or Bernie.

Plus there could always be some new person who comes out of nowhere.

No idea, but I can tell you it won’t be Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or any other old fart.  2020 is the Old Guard’s last throw of the dice.  We are going to see entirely new and younger generations (mainly Generation Xers and Millennials) dominate the nomination battle.  It will be even more wide open in 2024 than it is now.  

Probably someone who isn't even on the radar yet.

I hate to say it, but I can honestly see it being a celebrity candidate - or, if it's a politician, then it'll be someone well to the left of the Democratic mainstream. After two terms of Trump, the Democratic base will be wanting to throw a brick at the Democratic establishment - and this is doubly true if the 2020 nominee is Joe Biden or another establishment-friendly figure. Heck, even if it's Bernie who loses in 2020, his wing of the party will probably put it down to him being "too centrist" or "too neoliberal" in the general election campaign...

It would be Sherrod Brown, he was ready to run for Prez in 2020, if Biden somehow fails; which he wont, it will be Brown

Is Cuomo popular in New York? I thought no one really liked him, even offline.

Neil Abercrombie. It's his turn.

AOC.

Someone that represents the path to M4A, no questions asked. The nominee is probably not even on anyone's radar.

Sherrod Brown, Gretchen Whitmer, Tammy Baldwin, and Gavin Newsom come to mind. I could see alot of the people going nowhere this time around giving it another go. I do think Biden would lose to Trump, and if he did I think it would be even more contentious than it is now.

Depends heavily on who lost and what the CW is on why they lost. 

"Biden lost because he was too boring/moderate" = activist left pick, probably favors someone young and nonwhite: AOC/Abrams/Jayapal/Pressley/Gavin Newsom/maybe Sherrod Brown

"Sanders/Warren lost because they were too socialist" = establishment pick, with a notable pro-business streak and executive experience being a plus: Whitmer/Cooper/Walz/Lujan Grisham/Sinema/Kelly if she wins reelection, maybe Booker/Klobuchar (their time may have passed?) or some moderate elected to gov/sen in a Trump state in 2020/22.  Mark Kelly sticks out as someone with national potential if he flips the other AZ seat.


"Biden/Sanders/Warren lost because they were too old/didn't connect with Millennials" = Buttigieg/AOC/Yang/JPK III if he wins the senate seat

Be careful what you wish for, you might end up getting President Tlaib if the country is sick enough of Trump to vote for anything with a (D) next to their name.

At the same time, imagine the downballot backlash that would come under a Tlaib presidency.

Don Blankenship

D-did I just ... hear you say ...

For whatever reason I thought she was younger, and would be about Reagan's age in 1980 when 2024 came around. 

Okay, never mind what I said about her.... 

The pendulum always swings :P

My first thought was "some Governor who was first elected in 2018", but honestly looking at the roster...

Gavin Newsom: Sleazy as hell, all sorts of skeletons in his closet.
Steve Sisolak: Too conservative, boring, kind of old.
Michelle Lujan Grisham: Maybe if she can actually get news for something? Seems kind of boring and generic but potential might be there.
Jared Polis: Too many shady ties like with Bitcoin.
Laura Kelly: Really boring and old. If she gets reelected she could run on the electability angle but I doubt people will care especially as she didn't so much win as the Kansas GOP lost (and that would probably be true in 2022 if she wins as well.)
Tim Walz: As much as I love this guy, I'd be very surprised if he's interested, and he's probably aware his Midwestern folksiness is the big part of his appeal and that would go nowhere nationally (especially after Klobuchar's failure to capitalize on it.)
Tony Evers: Old and almost certainly not interested.
JB Pritzker: I know Democrats have kind of turned around on him...but come on. Though I'll grant he's not as laughable of a Presidential candidate as Peter Florrick would've been.
Gretchen Whitmer: ...maybe? Actually pretty plausible.
Ned Lamont: Unpopular, unlikely to improve, already proven he's not really that great at campaigns or primaries unless he has the entire progressive movement backing him, which he sure won't this time.
Janet Mills: Old and boring.

Andrew Gillum would've been a contender had he won...but not Stacey Abrams, who has always been a laughably overhyped candidate who I frankly goes away forever (especially since it looks like Georgia might be developing a decent Democratic bench without her.)

Although looking at pre-existing Governors Tom Wolf would be a fantastic candidate except he's too old and almost certainly not interested. Phil Murphy actually looks pretty good on his record until you consider the optics of "former Goldman Sachs guy from New Jersey." For Cuomo, I'll just note that he's incredibly dull, uncharismatic and has a non-neglible chance of being indicted by then.

So I'm going to go with some Senator who isn't running now but is making a bit of a name for themselves and is sufficiently charismatic and high energy, like Chris Murphy or Tammy Duckworth, or some dark horse like Pete Buttigieg who isn't even on the radar yet.

Interesting question. This does depend a bit on who loses and why.

If Sanders or Warren loses, there might be the sense the party went too far left, and that someone who appears more moderate is needed.

If Biden loses, there might be the sense that someone younger/ more diverse is needed.

I don't think it'll be the people currently running. The second place finisher is likely to pretty damn old, if it's Warren, Sanders or Biden. I don't see much reason Harris, Booker or Klobuchar will do better the next time around.

Of the people who didn't run, Tammy Duckworth may be well positioned. She's a military veteran/ woman of color in Obama's old Senate seat.

The last few years haven't featured that many elections of obvious star Democrats to statewide office. Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum would be top contenders had they won, but they didn't win their races. Gretchen Whitmer looks the best on paper. Krysten Sinema may have a following, and has demonstrated tremendous political skill, although what worked in Arizona might not fit the US.

Some of the 2020 Senate races might also feature new contenders. Hickenlooper probably wouldn't get more buzz as a Senator than he did as a Governor, but Joe Kennedy III would be a star on day one. I could see Sara Gideon getting support.

This is a new environment where members of Congress could plausibly run. AOC would be a progressive favorite, although she likely has a ceiling (it might also be in her interest to challenge Gilibrand in the primary.) Younger African-American members of Congressional leadership Cedric Richmond and Hakeem Jeffries might have openings.

My hunch right now is that Warren and Buttigieg barely lose 2020. Gretchen Whitmer positions herself ideologically somewhere between Biden and Warren and picks Cedric Richmond as her running mate. They win 2024 by a decent margin and 2028 by a bigger margin because of division in the GOP.

Gretchen Whitmer.

I think there is a great chance she will become president regardless of 2020.

What are the chances that either that the next Democratic president is either 1) some famous person not really into politics yet, 2) some low-level party official or local government person, or 3) is just some lawyer, banker, scientist, or bureaucrat somewhere?

I think the most likely answer is that Dems are going to crush it in the Sunbelt states in 2022 if Trump is reelected and the nominee will probably be someone elected statewide in AZ/NC/GA/TX/maybe FL in 2020/22.  I really like Mark Kelly's chances if he breaks through in AZ.

Do you think someone elected to statewide office in 2022 could be the favorite in 2024? Is there enough time to accomplish anything before the process of running a national campaign kicks off?

Interesting question.

Technically, this is likeliest to happen if the next Democratic President isn't elected until 2028 or later.

At the moment, we have a sense of who is running for statewide office in 2020, and they would be newcomers seeking office in 2024.

On the flipside, sixteen years ago Obama was a state senator a few months into a primary where he was the underdog to the state comptroller and a multimillionaire securities trader whose domestic violence allegations hadn't come out yet.

The more I think about it, the more Joseph Kennedy III makes sense.

If Warren, Biden or Sanders lose, a takeaway will be that Democrats should nominate someone younger.

He'll probably be in the Senate in the state next to New Hampshire that has produced multiple nominees.

I'm going against the grain here, but I think it'll be someone ideologically similar to Warren and Sanders even if one of those two wind up the nominee this time around and goes on to lose to Trump. I mean being seen as too far to the right on immigration was seen as one of the reason why Romney lost in '12 but that still didn't prevent Trump from winning the GOP nomination four years later. I'm skeptical that today's Democratic base would attribute being too liberal as the reason for a Warren or Sanders defeat so I'm personally not expecting a renewed love for more moderate candidates. And especially if Biden is nominated and loses, I think that fervor would be stoked even more.

That said, I could see Booker, Harris, and Buttigieg all giving it another try out of the candidates running this time. Maybe Warren as well if she loses to Biden in the primary, but as has been pointed out she'll be 75 by then.

Joe Kennedy III strikes me as real possibility assuming he defeats Markey in that primary.

None of the current Democratic governors strike me as really presidential material with the possible exceptions of Newsom and Whitmer.

This is part wishful thinking and part prognostication, but I could maybe see Sherrod Brown finally giving it a go. The fact that his Senate seat will be up that year could maybe circumvent the problem of DeWine picking his replacement, assuming a Dem isn't elected governor of Ohio in 2022.

Gretchen Whitmer

Showdown between AOC and either Harris/Newsom

It won't matter. 2024 will be a change year, and unless a whole lot goes perfectly for the GOP, the Democrats will win the White House.

Roy Cooper

Possibly someone no one here has heard of unless they are from the same state.

Most likely Michelle Obama if she decides to run

Brown, Booker, Harris, Yang, Buttigieg will all run again, with some additions like Newsom, Whitmer, Kennedy III, Sinema, AOC or Pressley, and some others. Maybe Howie Hawkins as well.

Nice!

We have Gavin Newsom, but we need to solve the problem with too many poor people now, Rs for Prez gives tax cuts for the wealthy

If Bernie loses, then Harris or Buttigieg.

If Biden loses, then AOC.

Cuomo

How come?

At this point, it would probably depend on what the prevailing narrative is about why Democrats lost. It would almost certainly be a very ugly primary, with the current divide in the Democratic Party getting more severe and reaching a boiling point.

The three reasons why I see a possible loss in is 2020 is that-

1) Biden wasn't liberal enough and was a very weak candidate. He was too conservative, too old, and had an awkward style that made people uncomfortable the way even more aggressive styles didn't.(Especially if Democrats keeps the house) Depending on how the economy is in 2024, we should probably go with Buttigieg if the economy is "normal" again, or AOC if it is struggling.
 
2) The Democratic Brand is toxic. A lot of people were saying this out of 2004.  (Especially if Democrats lose the house)   That's how a lot of moderates and conservatives got into office. We will be back to Howard Dean saying we need to win voters of people who have confederate flags on their pick up trucks. I would say to double down and wait for people to listen but after this year, I don't know when that would ever be. We could always try someone like Gabbard in 2024. She resonates a lot more with the base than Biden would and is pretty Trumpish (many I don't like) but she is strong on domestic policy. She could be a "Bill Clinton" like character. That is, someone the national democrats would never trust until it was apparent they weren't trusted by the electorate. (A Trumpy narrative) Someone who could run on a "liberalish" platform that would be seen as too liberal and too moderate at the same time by the base but also someone who could wedge enough votes back. It wouldn't necessarily have to be Gabbard and might even be someone much stranger or someone not in politics right now.

It would just have to be someone who

1) Under the age of 50, preferably under the age of 45
2) Someone who is either not a white straight male or an "outsider"
3) Someone who is going to push for substantial Medicare expansion (MMA, Medicare at 50, or an affordable buy in for Medicare or Medicaid)
4) Someone who will aggressively protect or restore the judiciary and if it's already too late, someone who will find a way to "chip away" at the new power of states in question.
5) Most importantly, someone who is still willing to fight the Democratic base on issues that matter to poor and near-poor voters of all backgrounds whether its trade,  or immigration.


3) All the corruption of Trump administration can and does "trickle down" when "they" need it to. The economy quickly recovered making Trump look like this great president on election day. Who knows how to get out of this. Basically, we've reached a point where democracy doesn't function because the banks and large estates are so powerful that they can "shut down" or "open" the economy the bribe, reward, and punish voters.

Yeah, it'll be a sh**tshow.  AOC will be polling high even if she ultimately doesn't run.  That's the sort of desperation we'll see.

What do you think the narrative would be?

Personally, I think someone like Gretchen Whitmer, Chris Murphy or a politico elected in 2020 could be the Democratic nominee in 2024. In the book Gamechange Obama's decision to run is detailed and I think someone like Andrew Romanoff or Joseph Kennedy III wins their primary and then the general election they could have a shot at the White House. Come January 2025 I will not be surprised to see either Kennedy or Romanoff taking the oath of office, will it happen probably not, but there is some gut feeling that either of them could be a successful candidate.

JK3 wins, because we live in the worst timeline possible.

Since this question was posed, Newsom has seen his stock rise, possibly dramatically.  JPK's stock also seems to be rising.  I don't know if Inslee will ever be viable, but his recent leadership on the public health front would help his cause if he wants to try again.  Bullock is also building a strong record and could easily get more DC attention as a senator in 2024.

Whitmer, the Squad, all of the Northeast Dem governors (nursing home screwups, etc), and the labor left in general have seen their fortunes decline.  Yang could be viable if he gets elected mayor of NYC first and successfully cleans up the current nightmare there.

The problem is that another loss to Trump would be seen as an indictment of giving too much power to the social liberals at the expense of the traditional left. Then again, 2004 was seen the same way and it ended with a lurch only to the center of monetary issues and a lurch to the left on social ones.

Who knew in Febuary 2005 that we would have a black president, a constitutional guarantee of hay marriage, and be very close to a D majority on SCOTUS (that didnt happen but still)?

At that point, even some activists were about to concede that maybe should wait another 20 years on the LGBT thing and maybe we should try to compromise on abortion beyond what Roe would currently allow.

Joe Biden.

One of these is surely an error.

A Kennedy in the White House might be the only thing that can make up for Trump