Talk Elections

I know he'll be 78, and he's already in terrible health, but I'm not sure that would stop him. If he does run again, how does he fair in the primary (I'd imagine he sweeps the field)?

If the 2020 winner is a corporate/establishment/neoliberal Democrat, then I could see Trump trying again in 2024.

If the 2020 winner is a populist/progressive Democrat, then I think Trump would likely retreat from presidential contention.

Why?

Appeallate Crt of NY will use its jurisdiction to prosecute Trump on obstruction of justice when Trump is a private citizen

He's pretty egotistical, but I don't think he's that egotistical.

Yes.  Though being held in exile on St. Helena he will run again.

His campaign style works well against the former type but not the latter type.

But why would political calculations like that stop a cognitively declining megalomaniac from doing whatever he wants?

He might attempt it, but it seems unlikely. Also, the GOP establishment would probably do everything in their power to stop a Trump run in 2024.

He won't run again, but he'll certainly make his opinions known about whoever is running.

Perhaps he would express interest in running but he almost certainly wouldn’t actually go through with it.

Trump is about to get indicted for tax Evasion for not paying his taxes

Good luck with that.

Don the Con will have to escape to Moscow to avoid being indicted for tax fraud, campaign finance fraud and obstruction. He will be lionized as a hero in Russia and will have statues bearing his name at the FSB headquarters.

The IRS will complete its audit and there will be a Dem AG in 2021

Is this sarcasm?

I would not put it past him to try, or very publically consider constantly in the news.

If he had lost in 2016, I'm pretty sure his 2020 campaign would have automatically begun, and I think it would have been likely that he'd slander the results as rigged and attempt to create a "shadow government" where he still picked a cabinet, released executive orders, and talked about the laws he would sign and basically play-acted as President. With the media still giving weekly if not daily news coverage.

Donald Trump will either be dead or a total recluse by 2024.

It's either sarcasm or delusion.

Whether or not he was reelected. Alright. I give this a 50/50 chance of still being "compis mentis" by 2025  and give him about a 25% of living to 2030.

I wouldn't rule that out, but he'll probably be totally senile by 2024.

Just imagine he runs again and faces off a against Joe Biden, who seeks reelection. A 82-year incumbent prez against a 78-year old former prez. That'll be damn hard.

Yes, and he'll constantly badmouth his successor.

And you are basing this on....? What? All those examples we have of populist Democrats Trump has run against and lost to?

Mental health. Maybe he isn;t in as bad mental shape as Reagan near the end of his second term, but he is more troublesome because he is more headstrong. 

Do people really think Biden would run for re-election if he gets elected in 2020? I find that so hard to believe

If he wins next year does he run for a third term?

Imagine hinging a prediction on underplaying Donald Trump's egotism.

Hopefully the syphilis has completely rotted his brain of its facilities by then

I'm as anti Trump as the next guy, but these threads are getting ridiculous.