Talk Elections

General Politics => International General Discussion => Topic started by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on July 23, 2019, 11:00:29 AM



Title: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on July 23, 2019, 11:00:29 AM
New PM, new thread.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 23, 2019, 11:35:50 AM

'This Royal Throne of Clowns' perhaps?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: The Dowager Mod on July 23, 2019, 11:45:29 AM
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is exactly the leader the Tories deserve.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: CumbrianLefty on July 23, 2019, 12:33:26 PM

Though he doesn't actually become PM until tomorrow, after May's final questions swansong.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: John Dule on July 23, 2019, 12:36:49 PM
I have never been this excited about British politics before in my entire life.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Tintrlvr on July 23, 2019, 12:55:33 PM
I have never been this excited about British politics before in my entire life.

Well, it's certainly been high-drama from a distance lately.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Joe Republic on July 23, 2019, 01:20:35 PM
Brave Boris Battles the Bloody Brexit Bottlers


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: DavidB. on July 23, 2019, 02:27:52 PM
Meanwhile...



http://archive.ph/TdYVn


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Izzyeviel on July 23, 2019, 03:02:37 PM
Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Dumbistan & Northern Ireland.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Silent Hunter on July 23, 2019, 03:29:06 PM
I suggested "BoJo and the Brexit Conundrum". He does bear a passing resemblance to a certain Belgian comic character with some racist bits in his past...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on July 23, 2019, 04:13:34 PM
I pity the British people for having to choose between Johnson and Corbyn.
Nobody deserves such ignominy.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on July 23, 2019, 04:30:14 PM
May I humbly suggest “Boris Does Downing Street” for a title?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: thumb21 on July 23, 2019, 05:05:59 PM
"Number 20 for Team Eton!"


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 23, 2019, 05:54:09 PM
I know it's a bit easy but... how about "BoJo the Clown"?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: brucejoel99 on July 23, 2019, 07:15:01 PM
Meanwhile...



http://archive.ph/TdYVn

Nick Clegg getting booted out for this waste of space was one of the stupidest results of the 2017 election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: DINGO Joe on July 23, 2019, 09:00:27 PM
Meanwhile...



http://archive.ph/TdYVn

Always fun to see how long it'll take for the "owner" to regain control of his account.  It sounds like this Jared fellow may not have a staff right now and may not be capable of figuring out how to shut this down. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: LabourJersey on July 23, 2019, 09:48:17 PM
I, for one, cannot wait to see the Johnson government inevitably implode in the next few months.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: brucejoel99 on July 23, 2019, 09:55:45 PM
I, for one, cannot wait to see the Johnson government inevitably implode in the next few months.

Too bad they'll take the country down with them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on July 23, 2019, 10:01:32 PM
Corbyn says he'll bring up a no confidence vote after sh**t hits the fan.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: J. J. on July 23, 2019, 10:10:42 PM
Corbyn says he'll bring up a no confidence vote after sh**t hits the fan.

Which will be a failure. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: brucejoel99 on July 23, 2019, 10:13:02 PM
Corbyn says he'll bring up a no confidence vote after sh**t hits the fan.

Which will be a failure. 

Not if it's after BoJo commits the government to no-deal. Remainer Tories may very well come back to bite him in the ass.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on July 24, 2019, 03:30:11 AM
Britain gets a BoJob.
Sorry, it's 1:30 am.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: John Dule on July 24, 2019, 04:29:47 AM
"The de Pfeffel Kerfuffle"


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Velasco on July 24, 2019, 10:47:24 AM
Boris, The Invincible Lion of the Fleet

(maybe he will send the ships against the reefs, but anyway)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Lumine on July 24, 2019, 11:33:03 AM
Lidington, Gauke, Stewart and Hammond all resigned before Johnson took over.

And it’s a massacre thus far, Boris has already sacked Mordaunt (Defence), Hinds (Education), Fox (Trade), Clark (Business), Brokenshire (Housing) and Bradley (Northern Ireland). Grayling (Transport) resigned, but he wasn’t going to survive the reshuffle anyway.

It’s a purge of the Cabinet.

EDIT: Can we call it Night of the Blond Knives? Saw that on Twitter and found it hilarious.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Silent Hunter on July 24, 2019, 11:49:17 AM
Grayling was a dire Transport Secretary; the rail enthusiast community hated him with a passion.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Lumine on July 24, 2019, 11:58:26 AM
Mundell (Scotland), Wright (Culture) and Hunt (Foreign) now sacked as well.

EDIT: And Stride too (Leader of the House).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Lumine on July 24, 2019, 01:29:34 PM
Indeed! Confirmed offices for Gove, Truss, Barclay and Ben Wallace as well. Thus far:

Prime Minister: Boris Johnson
Foreign/First Sec of State: Dominic Raab
Chancellor: Sajid Javid
Home: Priti Patel

Cabinet Office / Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Michael Gove
Defence: Ben Wallace
Brexit: Stephen Barclay
Trade: Liz Truss


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on July 24, 2019, 02:11:29 PM
I read somewhere that Hancock is staying at Health, although with Truss at Trade the NHS might be doomed anyway.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on July 24, 2019, 02:27:56 PM
Damn, surprised he fired Mordaunt.

Also is Gove the last survivor of the first Cameron ministry?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Lumine on July 24, 2019, 02:31:34 PM
Health: Matt Hancock
Environment: Theresa Villiers
Education: Gavin Williamson
Culture: Nicky Morgan
Business: Andrea Leadsom
Housing: Robert Jenrick
DWP: Amber Rudd


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: J. J. on July 24, 2019, 03:19:49 PM
The talk is:
Sajid Javid     -Chancellor of the Exchequer
Priti Patel        -Interior Minister (Home Sec.)
Domenic Raab -Foreign Secretary

Edit: All 4 have been confirmed. The four most important positions in government are now held by a Muslim, a Hindu, a Jew and a Christian.

Not to mention a PM whose great grandfather was a Turk and a great great great grandfather was the King of Wurttemburg.  :)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Silent Hunter on July 24, 2019, 03:50:41 PM
Grant Shapps has gotten Transport.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 24, 2019, 04:21:29 PM
Very surprised to see Rodney Tine return to the cabinet so soon, especially given why he had to leave in the first place. Shocking stuff.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on July 24, 2019, 05:16:35 PM
May is in the unique position as somebody almost universally judged as a failure, and most likely to be missed very soon by comparison.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Lumine on July 24, 2019, 05:27:20 PM
Jacob Rees Mogg is now Leader of the House of Commons.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: CumbrianLefty on July 24, 2019, 06:11:54 PM
Meanwhile...



http://archive.ph/TdYVn

Nick Clegg getting booted out for this waste of space was one of the stupidest results of the 2017 election.

He should have been booted out for a very good Labour candidate in the 2015 GE instead.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: brucejoel99 on July 24, 2019, 06:19:55 PM
Along with the resignations, more than half of Theresa May's cabinet are no longer in their roles. Here's a summary of the reshuffle:

Sajid Javid is chancellor, Priti Patel is home secretary, Dominic Raab is foreign secretary & first secretary of state, & Jacob Rees-Mogg is leader of the Commons.

Michael Gove is the new chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster & has been replaced as environment secretary by fellow Brexiteer Theresa Villiers.

Jo Johnson is the new minister of state at the department for business, energy & industrial strategy & the department for education.

Gavin Williamson is education secretary, Andrea Leadsom is business secretary, Ben Wallace is defence secretary, Liz Truss is international trade secretary, Mark Spencer is the new chief whip, & Robert Jenrick is secretary of state for housing, communities & local government.

Grant Shapps is the new transport secretary & Stephen Barclay, Matt Hancock, & Amber Rudd are keeping their jobs as Brexit secretary, health secretary, & work & pensions secretary, respectively.

Former chief whip Julian Smith is the new Northern Ireland secretary, Alister Jack is Scottish secretary, & Alun Cairns will keep his job as Welsh secretary.

James Cleverly is the new Conservative Party chair while Rishi Sunak is the new chief secretary to the Treasury.

Robert Buckland is the new lord chancellor & justice secretary, & Nicky Morgan is the new secretary of state for digital, culture, media & sport.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on July 24, 2019, 08:05:05 PM
Michael Gove is the new chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

Does this carry any importance (since Gove is apparently not going to be Minister for the Cabinet Office) or has Boris essentially sacked him without sacking him?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Dereich on July 24, 2019, 08:07:54 PM
Jacob Rees Mogg is now Leader of the House of Commons.

That is funny enough to be the thread title.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: morgieb on July 24, 2019, 08:31:53 PM
This might be the worst Cabinet of all-time. Raab and Patel has to be some kind of practical joke, surely?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: brucejoel99 on July 24, 2019, 10:03:48 PM
Michael Gove is the new chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

Does this carry any importance (since Gove is apparently not going to be Minister for the Cabinet Office) or has Boris essentially sacked him without sacking him?

It's still a senior role within the Cabinet Office, & it looks like it's preparation for a no-deal scenario, considering they're gonna need all hands on deck if/when that were to happen.

This might be the worst Cabinet of all-time. Raab and Patel has to be some kind of practical joke, surely?

I'm afraid that this is all so terribly true.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Blair on July 25, 2019, 01:07:16 AM
The funny thing is that this is actually what people were wanting for ages; a cabinet which chucks out the useless ministers (Grayling, Bradley, Clark, Brokenshire etc) and puts in people from the newer intake who are actually good in the media, and who you could see as future leadership candidates.

The junior ministers will be very interesting; largely because they do a lot of work in the Commons and within MPs, and also because that's how you see who's on the up....

I still don't get giving Patel Home Sec... she's never held a real domestic cabinet job, and was sacked from her last one for gross incompetence.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Hnv1 on July 25, 2019, 01:32:44 AM
"The Age of Banter"


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Silent Hunter on July 25, 2019, 04:55:38 AM
The useless ministers have been replaced with useless ministers.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: CumbrianLefty on July 25, 2019, 05:26:32 AM
This might be the worst Cabinet of all-time. Raab and Patel has to be some kind of practical joke, surely?

Williamson is arguably the worst pick, both on a practical and moral level.

Seriously, how has what he did just been airbrushed away??


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on July 25, 2019, 02:06:52 PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-immigration-policy-home-office-priti-patel-free-movement-a9020871.html
This is refreshingly good policy, and will hopefully keep the Brexit Party alive to split the Conservative vote.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 26, 2019, 01:59:39 PM


MP for the 19th Century strikes again!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: Suburbia on July 26, 2019, 02:10:53 PM
Can Johnson win a general election?

If the Tories lose, who is the next Tory leader?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: CumbrianLefty on July 26, 2019, 04:00:24 PM
1) Yes, he can (which is certainly not saying he *will*)

2) Who knows? Would depend on how that had happened to a significant extent.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: brucejoel99 on July 26, 2019, 08:45:24 PM


MP for the 19th Century strikes again!

"Use imperial measurements"... Jesus wept.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, [no funny title yet]
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on July 27, 2019, 01:15:44 AM
How about "SHOWDOWN! Bercow vs. JRM (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jacob-rees-mogg-john-bercow-boris-johnson-parliament-fight-power-brexit-a9020506.html)" for the thread title?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on July 27, 2019, 06:15:15 PM
Apart from good old YouGov, slightly underwhelming for the new PM I would have thought.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on July 27, 2019, 08:20:07 PM
Jared O'Mara to resign as Sheffield Hallam MP (https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-jared-omara-to-resign-as-sheffield-hallam-mp-486882)

By far the best thing that he's done for his constituents & the Labour Party. I imagine this'll go back to being a Lib Dem seat, though I wonder who they might put up? I doubt Clegg will wanna come back, now that he's only recently started at Facebook, not to mention the fact that he lost it in the first place.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on July 28, 2019, 12:45:44 AM
Jared O'Mara to resign as Sheffield Hallam MP (https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-jared-omara-to-resign-as-sheffield-hallam-mp-486882)

By far the best thing that he's done for his constituents & the Labour Party. I imagine this'll go back to being a Lib Dem seat, though I wonder who they might put up? I doubt Clegg will wanna come back, now that he's only recently started at Facebook, not to mention the fact that he lost it in the first place.

Already being discussed on the by-election thread.  The Lib Dems have a prospective candidate, and it isn't Nick Clegg.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: LabourJersey on July 28, 2019, 03:03:18 PM
Jared O'Mara to resign as Sheffield Hallam MP (https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-jared-omara-to-resign-as-sheffield-hallam-mp-486882)

By far the best thing that he's done for his constituents & the Labour Party. I imagine this'll go back to being a Lib Dem seat, though I wonder who they might put up? I doubt Clegg will wanna come back, now that he's only recently started at Facebook, not to mention the fact that he lost it in the first place.

Already being discussed on the by-election thread.  The Lib Dems have a prospective candidate, and it isn't Nick Clegg.

That's great, considering Clegg is the eiptome of the worst that the Lib Dems have to offer


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on August 02, 2019, 03:20:52 AM
Composition of the Commons after Brecon & Radnorshire

Con 310 (+1 deputy speaker)
Lan 245 (+2 deputy speakers)
SNP 35
LD 13
DUP 10
Sinn Féin 7
TIG 5
"The Independents" 5
Plaid 4
Green 1
Speaker 1
other Independents 11

Con + DUP 320
Lab + LD + SNP + Plaid + Green + TIG + "The Independents" 308
other Independents 11

This gives a nominal working majority for Con + DUP of 1, but note that one of those other Independents is Charlie Elphicke, who is suspended from the Tory whip but likely to vote with the Government.  They also include Frank Field, who is apparently making a statement later today, Ian Austin, who has been voting a lot with the Government recently, and Jared O'Mara, who has probably voted in the Commons for the last time.  So the Government is probably a little more secure than that majority of 1 suggests.


"The Independents" are Heidi Allen, Luciana Berger, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith and John Woodcock.

The other Independents are

Ian Austin - ex-Labour
Nick Boles - ex-Tory
Charlie Elphicke - suspended Tory
Frank Field - ex-Labour
Sylvia Hermon - ex-UUP but elected as Independent
Kelvin Hopkins - suspended Labour
Ivan Lewis - ex-Labour
Stephen Lloyd - ex-Lib Dem
Jared O'Mara - ex-Labour
Chris Williamson - suspended Labour
Sarah Wollaston - ex-Tory via TIG


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on August 02, 2019, 06:04:40 AM
Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: TheSaint250 on August 02, 2019, 07:34:29 AM


Doesn’t anyone know for sure what this is? Some speculated Frank Field (now not happening for sure) or Kate Hoey joining, but looking at the Brexit Party Twitter account, it seems as this was meant for constituency announcements. Is that true?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 02, 2019, 08:03:01 AM
Williamson is according to himself being referred to the National Constitutional Committee for potential expulsion (https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/chris-williamson-referred-to-labours-top-disciplinary-body-and-faces-expulsion/)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MaxQue on August 02, 2019, 08:58:13 AM


Doesn’t anyone know for sure what this is? Some speculated Frank Field (now not happening for sure) or Kate Hoey joining, but looking at the Brexit Party Twitter account, it seems as this was meant for constituency announcements. Is that true?

Maybe announcement of the Westminster candidates they picked last month,


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 02, 2019, 01:56:32 PM
Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on August 02, 2019, 02:29:49 PM
Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 02, 2019, 03:03:31 PM
Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

This gets to the question of what the brexit party really is. If he was looking for a longer lasting thing, he would want defectors (admitedly, less are available since to tories keep giving into the ERG) but if its supposed to remain a personality party with no chance at number 10 then he would not want defectors to steal his thunder. If the parties goal was to change the debate on Brexit then they have already succeeded: May is gone, Boris is an ally, and the Tories want to leave in October no matter what.

So we have to ask, what does farage want from this Breixt party project right now, as they start to slip in the polls. I can think of three end goals for running in the eventual westminister election, rather then endorsing/teaming up with Boris. They are:

1) Farage is an accelerationist and wants to ruin the Tory Brexit and give power to the remainers, to hope he can push Leavers further into his camp. The problem is of course, if accelerationism worked, the world would have a lot more communist governments.

2) Farage is playing Littlefinger politics, and just wants chaos because chaos makes him valuable. The more chaos in the system, the more people are going to look elsewhere. Farage doesn't care what happens to the big picture if this is true, all he cares about is keeping the next rung on the ladder always in reach.

3) Perhaps the most likely option: Farage just wants a position in whatever political reality is to come. With the UK leaving the EU, he loses his paycheck and his microphone. Aquiring westminister seats give him access to both. If this reason is true though, he is losing control of the project. The narrative is leaving the Brexit party behind as Boris now beats the No Deal drum. If this is the real reason, Farage has every reason to try and cut a deal with the tories for seats, access, and a podium if The Brexit party starts becoming irrelevant in the polls.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 02, 2019, 03:09:12 PM
Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

Ann Widdecombe hasn't exactly helped their image.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on August 02, 2019, 04:03:10 PM
Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

Ann Widdecombe hasn't exactly helped their image.
Can we have her? Ann’s a star in my view.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on August 03, 2019, 05:39:58 AM
Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

This gets to the question of what the brexit party really is. If he was looking for a longer lasting thing, he would want defectors (admitedly, less are available since to tories keep giving into the ERG) but if its supposed to remain a personality party with no chance at number 10 then he would not want defectors to steal his thunder. If the parties goal was to change the debate on Brexit then they have already succeeded: May is gone, Boris is an ally, and the Tories want to leave in October no matter what.

So we have to ask, what does farage want from this Breixt party project right now, as they start to slip in the polls. I can think of three end goals for running in the eventual westminister election, rather then endorsing/teaming up with Boris. They are:

1) Farage is an accelerationist and wants to ruin the Tory Brexit and give power to the remainers, to hope he can push Leavers further into his camp. The problem is of course, if accelerationism worked, the world would have a lot more communist governments.

2) Farage is playing Littlefinger politics, and just wants chaos because chaos makes him valuable. The more chaos in the system, the more people are going to look elsewhere. Farage doesn't care what happens to the big picture if this is true, all he cares about is keeping the next rung on the ladder always in reach.

3) Perhaps the most likely option: Farage just wants a position in whatever political reality is to come. With the UK leaving the EU, he loses his paycheck and his microphone. Aquiring westminister seats give him access to both. If this reason is true though, he is losing control of the project. The narrative is leaving the Brexit party behind as Boris now beats the No Deal drum. If this is the real reason, Farage has every reason to try and cut a deal with the tories for seats, access, and a podium if The Brexit party starts becoming irrelevant in the polls.

Farage gets literally both of those things from his daily LBC radio show. In fact, he gets better paid and has a wider and more regular audience than he would as a Tory backbencher or the leader of the 4th/5th/6th largest party in the Commons.

I think you're right about the first two points, though. Farage probably thinks quite highly of his political abilities given the events of the past few years. He has every reason to think he's got some insight that will deliver him more power if he just stirs up enough trouble.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 14, 2019, 04:18:55 PM
Sarah Wollaston (Totnes) has defected from Change UK to the Lib Dems, giving them a total of 14 MPs.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Green Line on August 14, 2019, 10:36:45 PM
Can't believe Theresa isn't giving honours to Philip Hammond.  Very spiteful!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: thumb21 on August 15, 2019, 07:40:49 AM
Jeremy Corbyn has announced his plan to stop a No Deal Brexit. He wants to be installed as a Caretaker Prime Minister who would immediately ask for an extension of Article 50, then call a general election.



The Greens, SNP and Plaid are open to the idea but prefer a second referendum to be held, rather than a general election. The Lib Dems and TIG are opposed. Lib Dem leader instead calling for Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke to take over as PM.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49352250


Lib Dem response:
Quote
But Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson said she would not support making Mr Corbyn prime minister.

She called him "divisive" and said he would not command MPs' support.

In speech on Thursday, she said her party would work with others to stop a no-deal exit but Mr Corbyn was not a leader "respected on both sides of the House".

Instead, she suggested Tory MP Ken Clarke or Labour's Harriet Harman could lead an emergency government to prevent a no-deal on the 31 October deadline.

Government response:
Quote
Downing Street said Mr Corbyn would "overrule the referendum and wreck the economy" if he became prime minister.

A No 10 spokesman said: "This government believes the people are the masters and votes should be respected.

"Jeremy Corbyn believes that the people are the servants and politicians can cancel public votes they don't like."

Other parties + Tory rebels response:
Quote
Green MP Caroline Lucas welcomed Mr Corbyn's call for a vote of no confidence but insisted a referendum must be held before any general election

Plaid Cymru's Westminster Leader Liz Saville Roberts said she welcomed any attempt to stop no-deal but said it was "disappointing" that he would not commit to calling a referendum before an election

The SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford said his party would support the principle of a no-confidence vote, but "there is no mechanism for a caretaker government at the moment"

Also receiving the letter were Tory MPs Dominic Grieve, Sir Oliver Letwin and Dame Caroline Spelman, and Nick Boles, the independent MP who quit the Tory Party over Brexit.

Responding on Thursday, they said they were happy to support cross-party work to block no deal and meet Mr Corbyn and MPs from other parties in the coming weeks.

Change UK leader Anna Soubry, who was not sent the letter, said Mr Corbyn "doesn't even command respect and support from his own party never mind across the political divide".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 15, 2019, 07:50:24 AM
Lib Dem leader instead calling for Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke to take over as PM.



Good god. The one person who's fault all this sh!t is. No thanks.

Anyway, 'install ME as Prime Minister and I'll sort everything out' is a predictably egotistical response, but in the end, the leader of the opposition claiming he'll make a better PM is hardly the most surprising news ever. Even if 'leader' and 'opposition' both need large qualifiers in this instance.

fwiw I'm beginning to think there'll be a general election by the end of the year regardless of what happens


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 15, 2019, 08:00:47 AM
TIN and CHUK would be very uncomfortable with the man who basically ran them out of Labour Party being PM.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MaxQue on August 15, 2019, 08:30:56 AM
TIN and CHUK would be very uncomfortable with the man who basically ran them out of Labour Party being PM.

I didn't know their egos was a man.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 15, 2019, 09:21:01 AM
A Vote of No Confidence is not the same thing as a vote for the appointment of the PM and it's weird that everyone is discussing this as if it were, because such a thing does not exist here.

Anyway, everyone is playing political gamesmanship here, as per usual. Which doesn't mean that there's no sincerity on show; the two things can co-exist surprisingly well.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on August 15, 2019, 10:11:33 AM
Sarah Wollaston (Totnes) has defected from Change UK to the Lib Dems, giving them a total of 14 MPs.

She was technically an independent first. She was one of the ones who left CUK when Soubry took control of the outfit.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 15, 2019, 02:31:20 PM
Socialist Twitter seems to be up in arms about Jo Swinson not immediately dropping all demands and completely acquiescing to His Most High and Worshipful Highness Lord and Emperor Corbyn of Islington and his wonderful (non-European, of course) socialist paradise. Leaving aside everything else, I thought they didn't like it when Lib Dems acted spinelessly in the face of potential coalition partners?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on August 15, 2019, 03:40:07 PM
The Lib Dem’s need to accept that you need someone anti no deal in No.10 to guarantee an extension, and that Labour will not let that be anyone other than the Leader of the Opposition.

LOTO need to understand that Corbyn is too toxic (and too much of a political goldmine) for the Lib Dem’s to put him into No.10.

We can guess where this ends...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 15, 2019, 06:12:41 PM
TIN and CHUK would be very uncomfortable with the man who basically ran them out of Labour Party being PM.

My only response to that is "diddums" quite frankly.

If the likes of Leslie and Gapes enable a Johnson no deal, they will be vilified by history.

Its their call.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on August 15, 2019, 06:50:41 PM
Swinson is right imo that it'd be wiser to make Clarke or Harman the caretaker PM. Corbyn is toxic with the current parliament, this is another unnecessary obstacle to stopping no-deal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on August 15, 2019, 07:32:05 PM
Corbyn can't be trusted to reliably oppose Brexit, and he can't be trusted to reliably give up power at the end of a "caretaker" tenure. Swinson is the only grownup in UK politics right now and I'd love to see her eventually become PM.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 16, 2019, 01:49:57 AM
Swinson is right imo that it'd be wiser to make Clarke or Harman the caretaker PM. Corbyn is toxic with the current parliament, this is another unnecessary obstacle to stopping no-deal.

He is also toxic with the wider public.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on August 16, 2019, 03:18:42 AM
Corbyn can't be trusted to reliably oppose Brexit, and he can't be trusted to reliably give up power at the end of a "caretaker" tenure.

It would be within the power of the opposition parties to instantly bring down his government at any time, lol. This isn't difficult.

As for the Lib Dems, their line that Corbyn can't be trusted to stop no deal for some reason doesn't make sense when there are SNP, Green, Plaid Cymru, Conservative and Independent MPs who have said they would consider it.

And the argument that Corbyn shouldn't have a go because only a unity candidate would work doesn't make sense when you take into account that there's around half a dozen pro-no deal Labour MPs who would have zero reason to support a Tory PM like Ken Clarke to stop Brexit happening.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: afleitch on August 16, 2019, 04:33:34 AM
Margaret Beckett could do it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on August 16, 2019, 05:37:44 AM
TIN and CHUK would be very uncomfortable with the man who basically ran them out of Labour Party being PM.

My only response to that is "diddums" quite frankly.

If the likes of Leslie and Gapes enable a Johnson no deal, they will be vilified by history.

Its their call.

The idea that these two MPs would be remembered for being *the* reason No Deal happened is laughable. People will have forgotten about Change UK, and historians will highlight that Corbyn's leadership is what led to the desertion of MPs that eventually stopped him becoming PM.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 16, 2019, 07:22:16 AM
Its only recently that the SNP have finally shaken off being seen as bringing Thatcher to power in 1979.

And in Labour circles, Ramsay Macdonald is a pariah even now.

If even LibDems in the end come round to supporting Corbyn as PM for a few weeks, but the former Change UK MPs are seen to make the difference, rest assured that *will* be remembered by many.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on August 16, 2019, 11:46:06 AM
Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 16, 2019, 11:52:26 AM
There are only 14 Lib Dem MPs. It isn't enough to get this idea over the line by a long chalk.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Green Line on August 16, 2019, 11:54:31 AM
Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

I've only heard of one Tory, Guto Bebb, who is willing to put Corbyn into office so far.  Maybe more will come out, like Greening, who has been quiet for a month now.  I think she's not yet given up on returning to the front bench in a future Tory govt. though, so I can't see her doing it.

I don't see any reason to believe that the former Labour independents like Ian Austin, Frank Field, etc. would ever vote Corbyn into office either for that matter, along with some of the Tiggers who despise him.  Corbyn is a non starter in this parliament.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 16, 2019, 11:55:59 AM
If Williamson is expelled, don't expect him to back Corbyn either.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on August 16, 2019, 12:02:00 PM
Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

I've only heard of one Tory, Guto Bebb, who is willing to put Corbyn into office so far.  Maybe more will come out, like Greening, who has been quiet for a month now.  I think she's not yet given up on returning to the front bench in a future Tory govt. though, so I can't see her doing it.

I don't see any reason to believe that the former Labour independents like Ian Austin, Frank Field, etc. would ever vote Corbyn into office either for that matter, along with some of the Tiggers who despise him.  Corbyn is a non starter in this parliament.

The Tories I was referring to were:
Guto Bebb
Dominic Grieve
Oliver Letwin
Nick Boles
Caroline Spelman

All are currently in talks with Corbyn on forming a Unity Government. Greening hasnt said anything yet so far.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Green Line on August 16, 2019, 12:04:04 PM
Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

I've only heard of one Tory, Guto Bebb, who is willing to put Corbyn into office so far.  Maybe more will come out, like Greening, who has been quiet for a month now.  I think she's not yet given up on returning to the front bench in a future Tory govt. though, so I can't see her doing it.

I don't see any reason to believe that the former Labour independents like Ian Austin, Frank Field, etc. would ever vote Corbyn into office either for that matter, along with some of the Tiggers who despise him.  Corbyn is a non starter in this parliament.

The Tories I was referring to were:
Guto Bebb
Dominic Grieve
Oliver Letwin
Nick Boles
Caroline Spelman

All are currently in talks with Corbyn on forming a Unity Government. Greening hasnt said anything yet so far.

Oh.  Grieve has ruled out installing Corbyn though.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on August 16, 2019, 12:05:16 PM
Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

I've only heard of one Tory, Guto Bebb, who is willing to put Corbyn into office so far.  Maybe more will come out, like Greening, who has been quiet for a month now.  I think she's not yet given up on returning to the front bench in a future Tory govt. though, so I can't see her doing it.

I don't see any reason to believe that the former Labour independents like Ian Austin, Frank Field, etc. would ever vote Corbyn into office either for that matter, along with some of the Tiggers who despise him.  Corbyn is a non starter in this parliament.

The Tories I was referring to were:
Guto Bebb
Dominic Grieve
Oliver Letwin
Nick Boles
Caroline Spelman

All are currently in talks with Corbyn on forming a Unity Government. Greening hasnt said anything yet so far.

Not sure about the others but Grieve specifically ruled out supporting Corbyn for PM today. So he is out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/16/dominic-grieve-jeremy-corbyn-no-10-labour-brexit

Maybe John McDonnell would be the "compromise" PM? Lets the anti-Corbynites say they didn't install Corbyn but still installs someone who is viewed as a friend by the Corbyn faction.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on August 16, 2019, 12:05:48 PM
Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

I've only heard of one Tory, Guto Bebb, who is willing to put Corbyn into office so far.  Maybe more will come out, like Greening, who has been quiet for a month now.  I think she's not yet given up on returning to the front bench in a future Tory govt. though, so I can't see her doing it.

I don't see any reason to believe that the former Labour independents like Ian Austin, Frank Field, etc. would ever vote Corbyn into office either for that matter, along with some of the Tiggers who despise him.  Corbyn is a non starter in this parliament.

The Tories I was referring to were:
Guto Bebb
Dominic Grieve
Oliver Letwin
Nick Boles
Caroline Spelman

All are currently in talks with Corbyn on forming a Unity Government. Greening hasnt said anything yet so far.

Oh.  Grieve has ruled out installing Corbyn though.

Ah, found the article on that. So I guess its more 4 Tory supporters.

I agree that this Unity Government is likely not going to pass at all, but the optics arent favorable to the holdouts.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Dereich on August 16, 2019, 12:35:15 PM
Looks like a 'between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place' scenario for the Lib Dems. The publicity of their semi-refusal to join a Unity Government hasnt been playing well on the media so far and, if this situation were to escalate, could damage their reputation as a Remain Party.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Lib Dems is opposed to working with Corbyn on this issue and, even though many backbencher Lib Dem MPs are fine with this deal, without their approval a deal can never happen. The only way the Lib Dem leadership would withdraw their insecurities about an alliance would be if Corbyn were not the PM, but if such a demand were made Labour would probably just recind their idea of a Unity Government. This isnt helped by the fact that the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cleen, and even about 5 or so Tories are fine with the idea of Corbyn as a caretaker and are in talks to form such a government(diminishing the bargaining power of the Lib Dems and increasing the leverage of the Labour Party).

I dont know how this situation will resolve itself, or if this idea will even be in the spotlight for more than a week, but so far the situation has developed not necessarily to the Lib Dem's advantage.

I've only heard of one Tory, Guto Bebb, who is willing to put Corbyn into office so far.  Maybe more will come out, like Greening, who has been quiet for a month now.  I think she's not yet given up on returning to the front bench in a future Tory govt. though, so I can't see her doing it.

I don't see any reason to believe that the former Labour independents like Ian Austin, Frank Field, etc. would ever vote Corbyn into office either for that matter, along with some of the Tiggers who despise him.  Corbyn is a non starter in this parliament.

The Tories I was referring to were:
Guto Bebb
Dominic Grieve
Oliver Letwin
Nick Boles
Caroline Spelman

All are currently in talks with Corbyn on forming a Unity Government. Greening hasnt said anything yet so far.

Oh.  Grieve has ruled out installing Corbyn though.

Ah, found the article on that. So I guess its more 4 Tory supporters.

I agree that this Unity Government is likely not going to pass at all, but the optics arent favorable to the holdouts.

Spelman has also ruled out voting for Corbyn.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 16, 2019, 01:47:23 PM
Corbyn can't be trusted to reliably oppose Brexit, and he can't be trusted to reliably give up power at the end of a "caretaker" tenure.

Sorry, but this is pure derangement.

How do you think he could hold on in those circumstances, even if he wanted to??

(which he wouldn't, but anyway)

This isn't Czechoslovakia in 1948 and he isn't Klement Gottwald.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 16, 2019, 02:18:28 PM
Any caretaker government could be brought down by any one MP or faction, which is why it is a caretaker government. It would prevent anyone from occupying number 10 for any longer than the convenient alliance between the jumble of opposition parties and the insurgent Tories needed. However, what we are seeing now is I think being misinterpreted - this is public negotiations. In a coalition government power lies in two spots: the largest unified body of support, and the most insurgent group who would not be there if not for the need to get 50%+1. In a government with a expected lifespan of a month, max, the only thing to negotiate for is perhaps who will lead, and so a compromise needs to happen. Maybe there are other things that can be guaranteed for a month, even if the PM remains one person or another. Either way, that's how coalitions always form, they are never one party acquiescing to every demand of the other(s).  If you get these negotiations done now, then the front will be ready for the crisis when government returns.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 16, 2019, 02:55:25 PM
The Lib Dems have an unenviable choice here but I think it's pretty clear what they should do. Back down and put the senile hard-Brexiteering lunatic in office and they lose every vote they have gained since early this year, and it's the end of them as a political force. The short term losses incurred by screaming Twitter Socialists and the media are far from ideal but the lesser of two bad choices here.

In any case, given the Labour response to all this has been 'acquiesce to every demand we make or f!ck off,' I think there's a good chance the response will be 'ok, f!ck off' and none of this crap will happen anyway. Although these are very strange times and I've been wrong before.

And lastly, of course Corbyn will give up power if required. Even I'm prepared to give him that much.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 16, 2019, 03:55:16 PM
The Lib Dems have an unenviable choice here but I think it's pretty clear what they should do. Back down and put the senile hard-Brexiteering lunatic in office and they lose every vote they have gained since early this year

As polls confirm, they have gained a lot of that support from Labour.

And that isn't - whatever some may like to believe - because those people have been (re)converted to the virtues of neoliberal centrism, it is because many of them are very worried about Brexit (especially the prospect of crashing out without a deal) and came to view the once quite effective Labour/Corbyn "constructive ambiguity" on the topic as more like evasion and duplicity.

Corbyn putting Swinson on the spot like this was thus smart politics as well as objectively the right thing to do to maximise the chances of avoiding no deal. Always a good combination.

And she handled it poorly, too many LibDems have let the Euro elections especially go to their heads.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 16, 2019, 03:57:12 PM
Some of us are also very unhappy with the antisemitism problems in Labour.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 16, 2019, 03:58:55 PM
Some of us are also very unhappy with the antisemitism problems in Labour.

Yes, fully accept that. Which doesn't mean I will agree with you in all particulars about the nature of the problem or how it should be dealt with.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 16, 2019, 04:26:16 PM
The Lib Dems have an unenviable choice here but I think it's pretty clear what they should do. Back down and put the senile hard-Brexiteering lunatic in office and they lose every vote they have gained since early this year

As polls confirm, they have gained a lot of that support from Labour.

And that isn't - whatever some may like to believe - because those people have been (re)converted to the virtues of neoliberal centrism, it is because many of them are very worried about Brexit (especially the prospect of crashing out without a deal) and came to view the once quite effective Labour/Corbyn "constructive ambiguity" on the topic as more like evasion and duplicity.

I'd caution with this approach. No, nobody is voting specifically for centrist neoliberalism (least of all me) but putting down the movement to the Lib Dems entirely to Brexit might not be entirely accurate. It was probably the catalyst for the recent large movement but I think a general fatigue with Corbyn was a large factor as well.

Corbyn putting Swinson on the spot like this was thus smart politics as well as objectively the right thing to do to maximise the chances of avoiding no deal. Always a good combination.

"Support ME and only ME and nobody other than ME" is sadly probably what passes for good politics these days, so I'll concede that point (with reservations discussed below)

And she handled it poorly, too many LibDems have let the Euro elections especially go to their heads.

Yeah, going to have to agree to disagree here. I do mean this in the nicest possible way, but what you think on this doesn't really matter that much - you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter, you were never going to be a Lib Dem voter in any circumstances and thus your opinion doesn't factor into that of Swinson or any other senior Lib Dem. Nobody who likes Corbyn is voting Lib Dem, and therefore anyone outraged that he's been denied number 10 by this was probably not in Swinson's electoral calculations to begin with. Sure, there'll be some voters who are annoyed at the course of action they've taken, but I think taking a short term hit from this (and of course, Lib Dem social media is pumping out the 'we tried guvnor, honest' stuff which is a bit disingenuous but does what it needs to do) is, as I said, the best of two very bad choices. Soon enough, all of this will be forgotten once Brexit produces the next shiny object for the media to fawn over, whereas if she decides to prop up Corbyn, all the moderate voters (and yes, they do exist. If Corbyn was a diehard remainer he would still be struggling, even if not as much, because his rhetoric if not his policies are not popular) would bolt and the party would be back to the Farron days if they were lucky. Corbyn and the media have put Swinson in a tought spot but I think she's taken the correct course, even if it doesn't seem like it now.

In any case, even if Swinson did fold, any Corbyn led government would need the SNP, and the SNP will do exactly what benefits the SNP and nothing else.  I'm not certain that would be Prime Minister Corbyn. Certainly wouldn't benefit the bloody country but that's of course my opinion and irrelevant to the wider analytical discussion.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 16, 2019, 04:33:15 PM
"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 16, 2019, 04:39:57 PM
"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.

Which is perfectly fine and fair enough, but it doesn't change my argument that you were never going to be a Lib Dem voter and therefore you might not be able to fairly judge the impact of these shenanigans on someone who would be a potential Lib Dem voter. Someone who likes Corbyn at this point is voting Labour - therefore, I don't see the Lib Dem rejection of Corbyn as a very large issue for them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: JerryArkansas on August 16, 2019, 08:11:43 PM
"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.
You are clearly a partisan who doesn't care what the Lib Dems do, you'll go on hating them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on August 16, 2019, 08:19:19 PM
The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal. You don't have to like Corbyn to think it was a tactical error to rule out a government lead by him before any discussions happened, something that neither the SNP, Plaid or Greens or even a couple of Tory rebels did.

The Lib Dem problem is that you can't court Conservative Remain voters in the south without losing dissatisfied Labour voters elsewhere. Not really a controversial statement.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on August 16, 2019, 08:27:39 PM
The problem for the Lib Dems in this scenario isnt the logistics of a Unity Government or even the terms it would be on, its the optics.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

For other voters in the Lib Dems and the leadership, even discussing with Corbyn is a horrid move, one that they could never stomach(a hard place).

Only time will tell how this issue evolves, but so far Labour has the optics advantage.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Shadows on August 16, 2019, 10:16:06 PM
Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election. The party has no future & is dying. No agenda & was only an anti-Brexit party. Now they are not ready to stop a No Deal Brexit & support Corbyn when Greens Plaid Cymru SNP are all supporting & some Tory rebels are ready to talk. These guys slept with Cameron for 5 years & implemented massive austerity & tax cuts & cuts to services including for disabled people.

Corbyn played a master stroke & the LibDems are getting brutally exposed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 17, 2019, 04:31:25 AM
I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here? I think it more likely most blame him to be frank , as this isn't really a situation where there's an obvious wrongdoer - as someone mentioned further up, both sides had red lines it would have been impossible to budge from and thus to supporters of that side, they seem reasonable. In any case, I do hope you can see the poor logic in "I stopped voting Labour because I don't like Corbyn but I'm furious that the party I went to wouldn't make him PM so I'm going back." That's not how things work.

And to all the indignant lefties, please try and get a sense of perspective. Just because YOU don't like what's happened doesn't mean people who vote a different way agree. And 'the Lib Dems are going to lose seats because they wouldn't make someone no non-Labour voters like PM" is such a stupid take it hurts my brain.

Oh, and for the love of God, PLEASE stop saying this is a genius masterstroke from Corbyn. It was the most open of open goals, and it says a lot about him that his not blasting the ball above the crossbar into a geostationary orbit is considered a genius move.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 17, 2019, 07:19:09 AM
"you are clearly a diehard Labour and Corbyn supporter"

I have always been Labour yes, but did not vote for JC in either leadership election.

That doesn't mean I have to buy into the ultra-negative view of him people like you have. Even more so since the man himself doesn't matter as much as what he represents.
You are clearly a partisan who doesn't care what the Lib Dems do, you'll go on hating them.

I have always known their, ahem, "foibles" - it is the stuff of legend that Labour and Tory activists get on better with each other than they do with LibDems, who are widely seen as totally unscrupulous opportunists - but the fact remains that several left-leaning voters were much better disposed towards them prior to 2010. Brexit was making some of them at least willing to cautiously forgive and forget, but the risk of the past week is that they are remind of why they developed such an animus.

IMO that is a reasonably fair and objective summary of things.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Dereich on August 17, 2019, 07:24:58 AM
Letwin and the CHUK remnant will not support a Corbyn caretaker government.  (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/16/sadiq-khan-lib-dems-jo-swinson-corbyn-only-viable-pm-stop-no-deal-brexit)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 17, 2019, 08:52:03 AM
No surprise there then.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 17, 2019, 09:03:38 AM
Will at least consider backing Corbyn - SNP, Plaid, Greens, a handful of "rebel" Tories.

Will (at present) not consider - LibDems, whatever ChUK is now called, a few other "rebel" Tories.

From this, some seem to be concluding Corbyn has the problem.

Isn't it, at least arguably, as much those who are still holding out?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on August 17, 2019, 09:05:51 AM
I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 17, 2019, 09:06:37 AM
I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

As the latest YouGov findings confirm.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on August 17, 2019, 09:53:11 AM


^The poll that shows this is all about stopping No Deal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 17, 2019, 10:01:16 AM
The Lib Dems have 14 MPs. With the other Independents, it's over 25...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 17, 2019, 10:21:24 AM
Unfortunately every single political party has gamed this actually quite serious process for petty political advantage and, well, look where we are now. You'd think that the outcome of the 2017 election would have resulted in serious negotiations and some sort of compromise between the government and Labour but this did not happen - was not even contemplated by either. Why? Because the Conservatives viewed (and view) this entire mess as an internal Party problem and any sort of arrangement with the hated socialists would shatter any hope of Party Unity, while Labour viewed (and view) this issue as an irrelevant bourgeois concern that mattered (and matters) only as a means of bringing down the government and triggering fresh elections in favourable circumstances. The LibDems have seen this issue as their meal-ticket back to respectability and electoral relevance, the SNP as a way of getting another referendum on their issue, and so on. A pretty impressive systemic political failure all round, wonderful. A big part of the issue being the adversarial model of politics, which, apparently, under such circumstances fries brains. Of course one cannot pretend this is purely the fault of British politicians even if it mostly is: imagine designing an exit process as dangerously stupid as this one.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Good Habit on August 17, 2019, 12:46:57 PM
Well, basically there are only TWO possible options: Hard (most likely "no deal") Brexit with PM Johnson - or - (possibly) a delay with PM Corbyn.. - as Corbyn is not really a remainer, and Labour is quite split on the Brexit issue, he - and Labour - doesnt have an incentive to pay a high price for a second referendum - so Labour won't support an alternative government without the official Leader of the Opposition becoming PM.

So - the options are:
1. no agrement about a vote of no confidence, October 31th passes with no deal Brexit. In the week that follows, Johnson calls for a snap election for december 5th, purges the Tory from his internal opponents, realigns with Farage (I have delivered) and wins with >40% a clear majority against a split opposition-
2. There is a vote of no conficence (succesful) - but no agreement about a interim PM. (For Labour it has to be Corbyn..) So Johnson remains as acting PM und calls a Snap Election for November 14th... - October 31th passes without an extension.. (just may be - the EU offers one against the wish of the British Goverment - "as there is an Election ongoin, we grant the future Government the right to unilaterally ratify the (old) Brexit agrement or to recall article 50, until end of march 2020..) But most likely, Johnson unites with Farage, wins the Election with a strong majority, and most goes as under 1#.
3. There is a succesful vote of no confidence, parliament shows that the Leader of the Opposition (Corbyn) would have a majorty, so he moves to number 10. He asks for an extension of at least 6 to 12 months, "as the UK parliament has just started to do serious business..." - and gets it... An elections is called - say - for January 23th, 2020.
now - Johnson - who can claim to have been "backstabbed" - remains Tory Leader and manages to de-select the internal opposition, but re-conciles with Farage..
So the options are: the Lib-Dems sacrifice themselves - "vote Corbyn - because thats the only way to stop Johnson" - or they don't. If they don't, Johnson likely wins a Landslide, gets back in power and stays for 5 years... If they do, there is a change that Labour wins a majority, Corbyn remains in number 10 for quite some time. He will likely propose a softer Brexit as alternative to remain, but will not put the party to the whip on that question. So the second referendum most likely goes to the Corbynite soft-Brexit - with Brexiters having no alternative - unless, of course, the Torys will campaign for "remain", in the hope that the EU will put brakes on on the economic plans of a Corbyn government...

Theoretically, a new BEP (British European Pary) could become the official opposition - result of massive defection from both Labour and the Torys. This seems, however, rather unlikely... This ship has most likely sailed a long time ago - the obvious time would have been just after the last general election, when Theresa May failed to win a clear majority.. (If she had, Brexit could be treated as a purely internal question of the Torys..) - but farsightedness is usually not among the qualities very common in politics...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 17, 2019, 02:53:07 PM
I'm concerned that a Corbyn government will go very much like the novel A Very British Coup with a more incompetent PM and we're get more Tory rule.

But No Deal isn't the end of the matter... it's the start of the next phase.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pandaguineapig on August 17, 2019, 04:30:25 PM
If one were thinking cynically it becomes not too ridiculous to think that the LibDems might actually be willing to live with a no-deal than prop up a "caretaker" government because; 1. The last coalition that the party agreed to (one in which they had a lot more power than they would ever have in this agreement) ended in an absolute disaster for the party, almost wiping the party off the map, they would also likely be propping up a deeply toxic figure with serious baggage with the antisemitism scandals and who is a closet brexiter himself, and 2. if they "allow" the UK to crash out with no-deal that leaves them in a stronger position for the snap election than they would be if they propped up Labour


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on August 17, 2019, 05:04:40 PM
The pressure put on the Lib Dems notwithstanding - which is understandable, but still unfair - the whole scenario is still fantasy since the numbers aren't there.

Even if Swinson is pressured into voting for Corbyn despite the fact he's hilariously unfit to be PM, not being able to count on Grieve and "Change UK" means Corbyn would, at best (that is, counting Bebb and Philip Lee), be 9-10 votes short of winning a vote of confidence.  And that's without counting Umunna, Woodock, Austin and several others who have every reason to vote against Corbyn, meaning he'd have to rely on further Conservatives votes to prop him up, which are almost certainly not coming because A. They're certain Corbyn has no place being anywhere near Number 10 or B. Because their careers - the ones who plan to stand again as MP's - would be over the moment they voted for Corbyn.

I get why Corbyn is doing this and kudos to him for finally taking a strategically smart (if rather disingenuous) step, but with the current numbers it's not possible for him to secure the confidence of the House. As others have pointed out, If Johnson loses the VONC no alternative government will be formed because A. Corbyn can't command a majority within 14 days and B. the Labour leadership will block any fantasy unity government. Thus we get an election, which is what Corbyn has wanted all along regardless of the consequences.

Long story short, Swinson eventually relenting and voting for Corbyn is still irrelevant as he can't command a majority without a large group of Tories somehow committing personal political suicide to put a man they despise - and with whom they disagree with on pretty much every issue - as PM.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 17, 2019, 06:13:19 PM
There is right now an effective Tory majority of 1 in the Commons - that's why there is talk of a VONC passing in the first place.

So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

It is that which is the problem, rather than lots of Tory "rebels" failing to materialise.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MaxQue on August 18, 2019, 10:13:19 AM
So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: JerryArkansas on August 18, 2019, 10:41:29 AM
So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.
No, the entire issue is Corbyn.  He is toxic and I don't know why leftists here want to defend him.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 18, 2019, 10:50:29 AM
So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.
No, the entire issue is Corbyn.  He is toxic and I don't know why leftists here want to defend him.

Because they like him and represent their interests? I despise the man but its not hugely difficult to see why a socialist might like him. Not difficult to see why a socialist might dislike him as well of course, but that's beyond the point.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MaxQue on August 18, 2019, 03:58:23 PM
So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.
No, the entire issue is Corbyn.  He is toxic and I don't know why leftists here want to defend him.

I don't like Corbyn but he is less toxic than the "centrist" careerists of Change UK (who are polling 0%, so clearly I'm not alone thinking that).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on August 18, 2019, 08:49:27 PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-caretaker-pm-stop-no-deal-brexit-a9064616.html

Quote
Jeremy Corbyn is leaving open the option of supporting an alternative caretaker prime minister, as he vows to do “everything necessary to stop a disastrous no-deal Brexit”.

In a speech in the midlands, the Labour leader will not rule out backing a different stopgap, after the Liberal Democrats and rebel Tories dismissed putting him in No 10 to avert a crash-out on 31 October.

Aides said he remained focused on seeking to persuade MPs to back him, if Boris Johnson can be toppled in a no-confidence vote – but described it only as the “simplest and most democratic” solution.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: JerryArkansas on August 18, 2019, 09:45:04 PM
So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.
No, the entire issue is Corbyn.  He is toxic and I don't know why leftists here want to defend him.

I don't like Corbyn but he is less toxic than the "centrist" careerists of Change UK (who are polling 0%, so clearly I'm not alone thinking that).
That's the same as comparing colon to pancreatic cancer.  They're both toxic and the issues surrounding them stem from that toxin.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 19, 2019, 04:38:16 AM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-caretaker-pm-stop-no-deal-brexit-a9064616.html

Quote
Jeremy Corbyn is leaving open the option of supporting an alternative caretaker prime minister, as he vows to do “everything necessary to stop a disastrous no-deal Brexit”.

In a speech in the midlands, the Labour leader will not rule out backing a different stopgap, after the Liberal Democrats and rebel Tories dismissed putting him in No 10 to avert a crash-out on 31 October.

Aides said he remained focused on seeking to persuade MPs to back him, if Boris Johnson can be toppled in a no-confidence vote – but described it only as the “simplest and most democratic” solution.

Then what the f!ck was the point of the tantrum when it was suggested last week? I honestly think he's just f!cking with us at this point.

Anyway, I told you all it wouldn't matter, and yet...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on August 19, 2019, 02:22:59 PM
So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.

Well not really- all of change know they’re going to lose/retire so they’d happily back a Harman Govt in extending/revoking A50 and bowing out- the biggest egos and ones most worried about losing are Chukka, Heidi and Wollaston- all of whom are expected to run as Lib Dem’s and have a tiny chance of being elected.

They’re entire existence is about not thinking JC is fit to be Leader of Labour- so why would they make him PM when an alternative to stopping Brexit exists


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MaxQue on August 19, 2019, 03:11:27 PM
So if Corbyn (or indeed some hypothetical "unity" figure) could get all non-Tory MPs behind them, they would at least have a chance.

Again, the issue isn't Corbyn. It is in the interest of Change UK and their spin-offs to have an election as late as possible, so their MPs don't get unemployed.

Well not really- all of change know they’re going to lose/retire so they’d happily back a Harman Govt in extending/revoking A50 and bowing out- the biggest egos and ones most worried about losing are Chukka, Heidi and Wollaston- all of whom are expected to run as Lib Dem’s and have a tiny chance of being elected.

They’re entire existence is about not thinking JC is fit to be Leader of Labour- so why would they make him PM when an alternative to stopping Brexit exists

Because that alternative doesn't exist and is not on table despite LD screams. It's Corbyn PM or No Deal Brexit.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 19, 2019, 03:14:55 PM
Of course it exists, Corbyn can create it any time he wants.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 19, 2019, 05:59:45 PM
Alternatively, find some other way of avoiding no deal. But time is running out there.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: vileplume on August 19, 2019, 06:04:42 PM
The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal. You don't have to like Corbyn to think it was a tactical error to rule out a government lead by him before any discussions happened, something that neither the SNP, Plaid or Greens or even a couple of Tory rebels did.

The Lib Dem problem is that you can't court Conservative Remain voters in the south without losing dissatisfied Labour voters elsewhere. Not really a controversial statement.

Conservative Remain voters/soft Leave voters are electorally more important to the Lib Dems though for the simple reason that they're more prevalent in Lib Dem target seats. Focusing on Labour Remainers at the expense of Tory Remainers would see them get decent seconds in places like Lambeth and Islington but very few extra seats.

If there's one thing Tory Remainers hate more than Brexit it's Jerermy Corbyn so Swinson definitely made the correct electoral choice by not jumping into bed with him.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 20, 2019, 06:43:51 AM
Of course it exists, Corbyn can create it any time he wants.

I have to say, the idea people like you seem to have that Labour MPs would support some unelected "grandee" en masse - even if Corbyn said they should, itself highly unlikely - is far more improbable than that the leader of the opposition should be made PM for a few weeks to do literally one thing.

Total magical thinking.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 20, 2019, 07:04:34 AM
They're not exactly supporting Corbyn, are they?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 20, 2019, 07:20:57 AM
The point is, all but a literal handful *will* support him in a VoNC and then as temporary PM.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on August 20, 2019, 07:24:14 AM
Of course it exists, Corbyn can create it any time he wants.

I have to say, the idea people like you seem to have that Labour MPs would support some unelected "grandee" en masse - even if Corbyn said they should, itself highly unlikely - is far more improbable than that the leader of the opposition should be made PM for a few weeks to do literally one thing.

Total magical thinking.

Ah yes sorry, we all forgot that the parliamentary Labour party loves Jeremy Corbyn so much they will not accept anyone except him as Prime Minister...

Catch yourself on! You're the one magical thinking!

If this was truly about stopping no-deal (which it clearly isn't), obviously it wouldn't matter one bit if the Prime Minister is Corbyn or anyone else who support the idea of asking for an extension with the EU.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 20, 2019, 07:49:16 AM
The point is, all but a literal handful *will* support him in a VoNC and then as temporary PM.

A literal handful is enough to stop him becoming PM... and he needs all the other opposition MPs.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 20, 2019, 07:57:44 AM
And the same holds for any hypothetical "third party" figure.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 20, 2019, 07:58:55 AM
And the same holds for any hypothetical "third party" figure.

Which is why this entire episode has probably been a complete waste of time from the very beginning.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 20, 2019, 08:00:23 AM
There is probably enough support for a successful VoNC, but only to trigger another election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 20, 2019, 05:09:51 PM
()

Lol. Literally none of the potential caretaker PMs are popular. British politics in a nutshell.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 21, 2019, 04:01:48 AM
Yep. I hope I can still get my Pop Tarts in a No Deal then.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on August 22, 2019, 11:12:41 AM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-caretaker-pm-stop-no-deal-brexit-a9064616.html

Quote
Jeremy Corbyn is leaving open the option of supporting an alternative caretaker prime minister, as he vows to do “everything necessary to stop a disastrous no-deal Brexit”.

In a speech in the midlands, the Labour leader will not rule out backing a different stopgap, after the Liberal Democrats and rebel Tories dismissed putting him in No 10 to avert a crash-out on 31 October.

Aides said he remained focused on seeking to persuade MPs to back him, if Boris Johnson can be toppled in a no-confidence vote – but described it only as the “simplest and most democratic” solution.

Is he trying to go 1929 National Government or something? You know, a Labour-controlled cabinet with a token "centrist" Tory as the new Ramsay Macdonald?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 22, 2019, 11:17:55 AM
Nick Boles has opposed Corbyn to lead a GNU:

Bloomberg Story (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-22/ex-tory-mp-boles-sets-out-his-plan-to-block-a-no-deal-brexit)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Coastal Elitist on August 27, 2019, 10:35:21 PM
I thought people didn't like Boris, yet recent polls show a big lead for the Tories with a clear majority. He better call a special election ASAP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Devout Centrist on August 27, 2019, 11:26:50 PM
I thought people didn't like Boris, yet recent polls show a big lead for the Tories with a clear majority. He better call a special election ASAP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election)
Those who forget their history something something...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on August 28, 2019, 02:04:08 AM
I thought people didn't like Boris, yet recent polls show a big lead for the Tories with a clear majority. He better call a special election ASAP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election)
Those who forget their history something something...

...go crazy?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Beezer on August 28, 2019, 03:39:24 AM
Government to ask Queen to suspend Parliament

The Queen will be asked by the government to suspend Parliament days after MPs return to work - and a matter of weeks before the Brexit deadline.

The BBC's political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, says it will make way for Boris Johnson's new administration to hold a Queen's Speech - laying out the government's future plans - on 14 October.

But it means MPs are unlikely to have time to pass any laws that could stop the prime minister taking the UK out of the EU without a deal on 31 October.

A No 10 source said: "It's time a new government and new PM set out a plan for the country after we leave the EU."

The idea of shutting down Parliament - known as prorogation - has caused controversy, with critics saying it would stop MPs being able to play their democratic part in the Brexit process.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49493632


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 28, 2019, 03:54:12 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on August 28, 2019, 04:05:18 AM
Lol the government is trying to force the rebels to pass a vote of no confidence after they backed off over August.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 28, 2019, 04:27:29 AM
Can a person please have a day out without a constitutional crisis starting?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on August 28, 2019, 04:30:38 AM
Could he not have done this a week ago and crashed the exchange rate while I was actually in Britain?

It would have saved me quite a bit of money


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DavidB. on August 28, 2019, 04:42:06 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
By the remain side which has refused to respect the outcome of the referendum for more than three years now, you mean? You're right.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 28, 2019, 04:44:22 AM
Lewis Goodalll's opinion piece on Sky News is well worth reading; both sides believe the other is engaging in a coup. That's not exactly good for parliamentary democracy.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on August 28, 2019, 05:03:20 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
By the remain side which has refused to respect the outcome of the referendum for more than three years now, you mean? You're right.

How have they done that exactly?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Mr. Illini on August 28, 2019, 07:20:13 AM
Democracy continues to erode in Britain and elsewhere. Extremely dangerous times we are living in.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Karpatsky on August 28, 2019, 07:52:46 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
By the remain side which has refused to respect the outcome of the referendum for more than three years now, you mean? You're right.

This is a truly embarrassing, bad faith deflection. I've known you to be better than this.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 28, 2019, 09:22:03 AM
Note that what is being done here is an abuse of power to mess with the timetable rather than doing so to put the whole place in lockdown for the weeks before the 31st October deadline, which is what the fruitloops were starting to agitate for. In other words, classic Oxford Union bullsh!t.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gass3268 on August 28, 2019, 09:25:34 AM
The EU should refuse to negotiate until Parliament is reopened.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 28, 2019, 09:40:35 AM


lol


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 28, 2019, 09:49:05 AM
I did time my holiday well, but the effect on the exchange rate has not been too great sadly. I have been quite surprised however, how little most people here in the UK seem to care. One would really not expect that the country is in the midst of an constitutional crisis and on the brink of a economic one as well. I have noticed nothing of it here really, except from the newspapers and the odd Car Bumper sticker. I tried to discuss it at breakfast, but unlike the European tourists, the Brits seemed to be quite uninterested in the whole saga. Quite surreal actually.

It's mainly because of how bloody sick of it we all are. And when I say all, I mean ALL


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 28, 2019, 09:52:10 AM
I did time my holiday well, but the effect on the exchange rate has not been too great sadly. I have been quite surprised however, how little most people here in the UK seem to care. One would really not expect that the country is in the midst of an constitutional crisis and on the brink of a economic one as well. I have noticed nothing of it here really, except from the newspapers and the odd Car Bumper sticker. I tried to discuss it at breakfast, but unlike the European tourists, the Brits seemed to be quite uninterested in the whole saga. Quite surreal actually.

It's mainly because of how bloody sick of it we all are. And when I say all, I mean ALL

Yes. Additionally, it is an unpleasant topic and there are Ranters about.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: J. J. on August 28, 2019, 10:03:54 AM
The EU should refuse to negotiate until Parliament is reopened.

Then the UK will just pull out.

The will of the people was expressed in the referendum, like it or not. 

(I am sure that Trump is asking if he can prorogue Congress.)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: John Dule on August 28, 2019, 10:35:51 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
By the remain side which has refused to respect the outcome of the referendum for more than three years now, you mean? You're right.

But remember, democracy dies in darkness.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on August 28, 2019, 10:42:01 AM
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/queen-approves-order-to-prorogue-parliament-for-one-month-until-october-14-a4223326.html


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on August 28, 2019, 11:34:54 AM
What an irresponsible, reckless b*stard. Literally trying to get voted out of office by Parliament so he can have an extra rhetorical argument in a General Election, all while the clock is still ticking, and coincidentally just after the Opposition seemed to be preparing to focus on binding legislation as opposed to a VONC.

Also, Ruth Davidson is resigning as Scottish Conservative leader.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pandaguineapig on August 28, 2019, 11:37:24 AM
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/queen-approves-order-to-prorogue-parliament-for-one-month-until-october-14-a4223326.html
No deal is pretty much locked in at this point, even if there is a successful no confidence motion immediately upon parliament coming back into session a new election would take place after 10/31 and all plans of a caretaker government have fallen through


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on August 28, 2019, 11:55:39 AM
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/queen-approves-order-to-prorogue-parliament-for-one-month-until-october-14-a4223326.html
No deal is pretty much locked in at this point, even if there is a successful no confidence motion immediately upon parliament coming back into session a new election would take place after 10/31 and all plans of a caretaker government have fallen through

Parliament can vote to force the government to go for an extension I think. Its a constitutional deadlock if Johnson refuses, but I think there's still time.

But yeah no chance of a GE now which is a shame as I think its the only way out of this. May's crazy GE was not explicitly about Brexit, this one would be.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pandaguineapig on August 28, 2019, 12:03:02 PM
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/queen-approves-order-to-prorogue-parliament-for-one-month-until-october-14-a4223326.html
No deal is pretty much locked in at this point, even if there is a successful no confidence motion immediately upon parliament coming back into session a new election would take place after 10/31 and all plans of a caretaker government have fallen through

Parliament can vote to force the government to go for an extension I think. Its a constitutional deadlock if Johnson refuses, but I think there's still time.

But yeah no chance of a GE now which is a shame as I think its the only way out of this. May's crazy GE was not explicitly about Brexit, this one would be.
The problem is that an election explicitly about Brexit would be one that Johnson would win by taking much of the Brexit party support as polling has suggested. With a majority (and much of the Tory mutineers in the current Caucus being forced to stand down or being de-selected) Johnson would have a much easier time dealing with the fallout of a no-deal Brexit


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 28, 2019, 12:06:15 PM
Perhaps you should stop pretending to be an expert about things that you know nothing and just be quiet.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: J. J. on August 28, 2019, 12:31:49 PM
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/queen-approves-order-to-prorogue-parliament-for-one-month-until-october-14-a4223326.html
No deal is pretty much locked in at this point, even if there is a successful no confidence motion immediately upon parliament coming back into session a new election would take place after 10/31 and all plans of a caretaker government have fallen through

Parliament can vote to force the government to go for an extension I think. Its a constitutional deadlock if Johnson refuses, but I think there's still time.

But yeah no chance of a GE now which is a shame as I think its the only way out of this. May's crazy GE was not explicitly about Brexit, this one would be.
The problem is that an election explicitly about Brexit would be one that Johnson would win by taking much of the Brexit party support as polling has suggested. With a majority (and much of the Tory mutineers in the current Caucus being forced to stand down or being de-selected) Johnson would have a much easier time dealing with the fallout of a no-deal Brexit

That does make sense.  If Boris is brought down on a vote of no confidence but retains leadership, it goes to the country.  The country puts the now Brexit Tories back it, you probably get a no deal Brexit. 

Only the question on if the UK really wants Bexit will remain; I would expect a Brexit majority to get elected.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 28, 2019, 12:34:18 PM
No Deal Brexit has the support of around 30% of the electorate. If that.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 28, 2019, 12:55:15 PM
No Deal Brexit has the support of around 30% of the electorate. If that.

To be fair 30% of the vote is enough to win a General election if the remaining 70% is split badly.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on August 28, 2019, 01:27:27 PM
And really what I think this shows is how absurdly weak Britain's constitution-slash-constitutional-conventions actually is/are - ironically (or not), made all the weaker by David "quick fix" Cameron


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on August 28, 2019, 03:15:36 PM
It's a very British coup.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on August 28, 2019, 03:27:26 PM
The irony of course being that we’re watching the Italian System deal with a right wing egotist much more effectively than our own system; everyone has been saying for months (and years) just how rotten are system is- all it takes is a push and our entire system will collapse.

Thank God for Bercow; and this has certainly focused minds. The biggest danger was that the opposition would keep bickering and fumbling; but now there’s a clear objective to stop parliament being shut down, or at the least legislate to stop no deal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 28, 2019, 03:49:57 PM
Much more effectively? Silvio Berlusconi says otherwise...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on August 28, 2019, 04:45:49 PM
Much more effectively? Silvio Berlusconi says otherwise...

I meant more so with how their head of state dealt with the election request; but of course it’s apples and oranges


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 28, 2019, 06:16:05 PM
Also, Ruth Davidson is resigning as Scottish Conservative leader.

Which could actually be highly significant in several ways.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Mr. Illini on August 28, 2019, 07:18:57 PM
Buzz Feed says that Boris and his team are considering additional grossly un-democratic moves to force no deal, such as adding bank holidays, packing the House of Lords, and refusing to step down in case of no confidence

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 28, 2019, 08:39:56 PM
Buzz Feed says that Boris and his team are considering additional grossly un-democratic moves to force no deal, such as adding bank holidays, packing the House of Lords, and refusing to step down in case of no confidence

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

An Eton/Oxbridge/Spectator-orbit posho seeing representative democracy as an irritating obstacle to be juiced and gamed as much as possible to get what he wants?! Say it ain't so!

Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
By the remain side which has refused to respect the outcome of the referendum for more than three years now, you mean? You're right.

"And you are lynching Negroes!"


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on August 29, 2019, 02:08:48 AM
Maybe if Labour and even Lib Dems didn’t reject every deal May offered , this day may not have come . The fact is Corbyn wants No Deal Brexit which is why he torpedoed every Deal Brexit , as once the deadline passes no deal Brexit will happen.


Yes Boris shouldn’t have done this but this day wouldn’t have come if the parliament accepted Theresa May’s deal


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on August 29, 2019, 02:13:07 AM
Maybe if Labour and even Lib Dems didn’t reject every deal May offered , this day may not have come . The fact is Corbyn wants No Deal Brexit which is why he torpedoed every Deal Brexit , as once the deadline passes no deal Brexit will happen.


Yes Boris shouldn’t have done this but this day wouldn’t have come if the parliament accepted Theresa May’s deal

That's nonsense. If Corbyn can't get remain, then he wants Norway Plus, which is about the opposite of no deal Brexit.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on August 29, 2019, 04:59:41 AM
Buzz Feed says that Boris and his team are considering additional grossly un-democratic moves to force no deal, such as adding bank holidays, packing the House of Lords, and refusing to step down in case of no confidence

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

Like I said above, can he not just do nothing even if Parliament passes a motion to demand an extension on the deadline? Just pretend he was incapacitated or something?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on August 29, 2019, 05:05:06 AM
Buzz Feed says that Boris and his team are considering additional grossly un-democratic moves to force no deal, such as adding bank holidays, packing the House of Lords, and refusing to step down in case of no confidence

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

Like I said above, can he not just do nothing even if Parliament passes a motion to demand an extension on the deadline? Just pretend he was incapacitated or something?

Well, we've reached the point where it's being seriously suggested the Prime Minister pretend to be sick like he's a schoolboy avoiding a test. Can't see how this all gets any more ridiculous.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 29, 2019, 05:19:26 AM
Ruth Davidson has resigned as Scottish Tory leader.

Also, Lord Young of Cookham i.e. George Young, former Cabinet minister, has resigned as a junior whip over this.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on August 29, 2019, 05:43:12 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
Democracy: my side lost the vote so now we demand a second vote on the first vote!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 29, 2019, 06:24:18 AM
Ruth Davidson has resigned as Scottish Tory leader.

Also, Lord Young of Cookham i.e. George Young, former Cabinet minister, has resigned as a junior whip over this.

... Honestly didn't know that a thatcher cabinet minister still had a government position. Don't you love the Lords?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 29, 2019, 06:33:53 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
Democracy: my side lost the vote so now we demand a second vote on the first vote!

Just asking, how long should a vote taken in 2016 remain totally unchallengably sacrosanct?

(if we had voted to leave by over 60% it might be a different matter - but amongst other things the march of demographics - older voters passing away, younger ones being enfranchised - means that *even if nobody else changed their vote* a rerun today would be a literal photo finish)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 29, 2019, 06:38:51 AM
Especially a 52-48 vote conducted with considerable Russian propaganda assistance to a Leave campaign using a premise now proved false.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Mr. Illini on August 29, 2019, 07:39:06 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
Democracy: my side lost the vote so now we demand a second vote on the first vote!

I didn't realize that No Deal Brexit was on the ballot in 2016.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on August 29, 2019, 08:10:27 AM
Season 3 of Brexit is even more exciting lol

Also, anyone have any statistics on emigration to the EU in recent months? I feel like I'm hearing a lot more Brits here in Vienna recently, but could be just tourists.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Free North on August 29, 2019, 09:59:37 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
Democracy: my side lost the vote so now we demand a second vote on the first vote!

Just asking, how long should a vote taken in 2016 remain totally unchallengably sacrosanct?

(if we had voted to leave by over 60% it might be a different matter - but amongst other things the march of demographics - older voters passing away, younger ones being enfranchised - means that *even if nobody else changed their vote* a rerun today would be a literal photo finish)

I don't disagree, but it sets a bit of a dangerous precedent whereby popular will can be eroded away by time and inactivity.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 29, 2019, 11:06:09 AM
Democracy: just a minor inconvenience to be brushed away in modern Britain
Democracy: my side lost the vote so now we demand a second vote on the first vote!

Just asking, how long should a vote taken in 2016 remain totally unchallengably sacrosanct?

(if we had voted to leave by over 60% it might be a different matter - but amongst other things the march of demographics - older voters passing away, younger ones being enfranchised - means that *even if nobody else changed their vote* a rerun today would be a literal photo finish)

I don't disagree, but it sets a bit of a dangerous precedent whereby popular will can be eroded away by time and inactivity.

And to some extent I can sympathise with that, I have never been one of the #FBPE crowd.

But the fact is that, with some honourable exceptions, the winning side in the referendum have taken it as a mandate to do whatever they wish - despite the narrowness of the result. And they got greedy and decided only the hardest Brexit would do (often as part of a twisted "culture war" platform)

A "threshold" for the referendum above a bare plurality might have avoided a lot of angst.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 29, 2019, 11:50:30 AM
Ruth Davidson has resigned as Scottish Tory leader.

Also, Lord Young of Cookham i.e. George Young, former Cabinet minister, has resigned as a junior whip over this.

... Honestly didn't know that a thatcher cabinet minister still had a government position. Don't you love the Lords?

Thatcher's Scotland and Defence Secretary was George Younger. George Young was Major's last Transport Secretary. Still been in Parliament in some capacity since 1974, though.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 29, 2019, 11:53:51 AM
Ruth Davidson has resigned as Scottish Tory leader.

Also, Lord Young of Cookham i.e. George Young, former Cabinet minister, has resigned as a junior whip over this.

... Honestly didn't know that a thatcher cabinet minister still had a government position. Don't you love the Lords?

Thatcher's Scotland and Defence Secretary was George Younger. George Young was Major's last Transport Secretary. Still been in Parliament in some capacity since 1974, though.

actually I was thinking of David Lord Young, the Industry Secretary who replaced Tebbitt, but thanks. Weird how common the name is for Tories.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on August 29, 2019, 03:56:30 PM
Buzz Feed says that Boris and his team are considering additional grossly un-democratic moves to force no deal, such as adding bank holidays, packing the House of Lords, and refusing to step down in case of no confidence

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

Like I said above, can he not just do nothing even if Parliament passes a motion to demand an extension on the deadline? Just pretend he was incapacitated or something?

Yes, although the Prime Minister may be prosecuted and jailed for refusing to implement Parliamentary legislation.

The most worrying part of that article to me is the bit about advising the Queen to refuse royal assent. That really would be a constitutional crisis.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Dereich on August 29, 2019, 04:36:10 PM
Buzz Feed says that Boris and his team are considering additional grossly un-democratic moves to force no deal, such as adding bank holidays, packing the House of Lords, and refusing to step down in case of no confidence

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

Like I said above, can he not just do nothing even if Parliament passes a motion to demand an extension on the deadline? Just pretend he was incapacitated or something?

Its not like the EU is a static entity that can't act for itself and can't see what's going on in Britain. If Parliament passed an extension, is there any reason the EU wouldn't grant an extension even without Boris himself formally asking for one? If they could (and Parliament could push back the UK-specific deadlines) there would be no reason for them to wait for Boris anyway.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Angel of Death on August 29, 2019, 05:53:03 PM
It is possible that Boris Johnson knows fully well that no-deal would be a disaster, including and especially for anyone presiding over it, and is actually trying to pull another "Producers" and setting himself up to "be thwarted by Remainers" and become enough of a martyr for Brexit in the next election to weather a wrathful Nigel Farage. After all, "having one's cake and eat it" is a favorite expression of his.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: vileplume on August 30, 2019, 01:44:50 AM
Maybe if Labour and even Lib Dems didn’t reject every deal May offered , this day may not have come . The fact is Corbyn wants No Deal Brexit which is why he torpedoed every Deal Brexit , as once the deadline passes no deal Brexit will happen.


Yes Boris shouldn’t have done this but this day wouldn’t have come if the parliament accepted Theresa May’s deal

That's nonsense. If Corbyn can't get remain, then he wants Norway Plus, which is about the opposite of no deal Brexit.

Except Corbyn would probably quite like a No Deal Brexit provided the Tories get all of the blame for it. Corbyn does not like the EU out of principle (his half-hearted act fools exactly no one) and a No Deal exit would cause the kind of chaos that would be quite likely to propel him into Downing Street to implement his socialist agenda, with the added bonus that he wouldn't have any of those pesky EU rules getting in the way.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on August 30, 2019, 03:02:44 AM
It is possible that Boris Johnson knows fully well that no-deal would be a disaster, including and especially for anyone presiding over it, and is actually trying to pull another "Producers" and setting himself up to "be thwarted by Remainers" and become enough of a martyr for Brexit in the next election to weather a wrathful Nigel Farage. After all, "having one's cake and eat it" is a favorite expression of his.

There's a hardcore No Deal minority out there that Johnson won't be able to woo back, especially if Brexit is delayed any more.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on August 30, 2019, 07:18:54 AM
Ruth Davidson has resigned as Scottish Tory leader.

Also, Lord Young of Cookham i.e. George Young, former Cabinet minister, has resigned as a junior whip over this.

... Honestly didn't know that a thatcher cabinet minister still had a government position. Don't you love the Lords?

Thatcher's Scotland and Defence Secretary was George Younger. George Young was Major's last Transport Secretary. Still been in Parliament in some capacity since 1974, though.

actually I was thinking of David Lord Young, the Industry Secretary who replaced Tebbitt, but thanks. Weird how common the name is for Tories.

The party of Young people.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on August 30, 2019, 07:37:24 AM
Maybe if Labour and even Lib Dems didn’t reject every deal May offered , this day may not have come . The fact is Corbyn wants No Deal Brexit which is why he torpedoed every Deal Brexit , as once the deadline passes no deal Brexit will happen.


Yes Boris shouldn’t have done this but this day wouldn’t have come if the parliament accepted Theresa May’s deal

That's nonsense. If Corbyn can't get remain, then he wants Norway Plus, which is about the opposite of no deal Brexit.

Except Corbyn would probably quite like a No Deal Brexit provided the Tories get all of the blame for it. Corbyn does not like the EU out of principle (his half-hearted act fools exactly no one) and a No Deal exit would cause the kind of chaos that would be quite likely to propel him into Downing Street to implement his socialist agenda, with the added bonus that he wouldn't have any of those pesky EU rules getting in the way.

Corbyn has consistently opposed a no deal Brexit basically from day one. Its actually been one of the few constant Labour positions since June 2016 FFS.

But the conspiracy theorists know better about his "real" intentions, of course.......

Everybody knows that he is a long term Eurosceptic - but perhaps in his case he is a "sceptic" in the genuine (and indeed original) sense of the word. Rather than a Europhobe little Englander, cynical disaster capitalist or simply (as with our new PM) an amoral opportunist?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 30, 2019, 08:02:47 AM
I've never seen any evidence that he thinks in those grandiose calculating terms, even if some of the people working for him certainly do. His politics are basically sentimental, not ideological.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Badger on August 30, 2019, 11:23:55 AM
The EU should refuse to negotiate until Parliament is reopened.

Then the UK will just pull out.

The will of the people was expressed in the referendum, like it or not. 

(I am sure that Trump is asking if he can prorogue Congress.)

The will of the people was expressed once multiple Years Ago by a razor-thin margin. If we are truly concerned about the will of the people, hold another referendum, as polling indicates brexit would probably be repealed.

It always astounds me that the people who just want brexit for its own sake go on about the will of the people and democracy, and yet at the same time our Foursquare of against allowing the people to express what appears to be a majority in favor of second thoughts and regrets.

Oh no, they cry. We can't go back and forth and have a referendum on leaving every couple years. Who will think of the stability? Yeah, sure. Where's your Devotion to democracy in the will of the people now? With that kind of the will of the people binding Nation forevermore, we would still have prohibition in effect.

Just drop it pretense of caring about democracy. Supporters want brexit for brexit sake, and will fight to keep it anyway possible no matter how much of a klusterfuk it is turning into


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on August 30, 2019, 01:51:07 PM
To echo Badgers point it’s also a redundant argument when you consider that there is no detailed method of leaving with a democratic mandate. The best we have is the vague 2017 manifesto commitments which considering the 2017 result don’t mean much.

Do we leave with a Norway Style Deal, do we leave with Mays Deal, do we leave with no-Deal, or do we leave with Corbyn weird deal? Every option will still be seen as unfavourable by one segment of the ‘Leave Coalition’.

The problem with Brexit has always been the vast difference is what it’s various supporters think it means.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: politicallefty on August 30, 2019, 02:34:27 PM
I'd have to ask since when is one election result totally binding on every subsequent decision? I think what's against democracy is allowing vote which was taken over 3 years ago to rule everything for the future. If anything, the nearly neverending debate over the past couple years is all the more reason for another referendum. The people should have a chance to weigh in once again, something they haven't been able to do since the early days of the debate when May failed to get increase her majority in Parliament.

I suppose for the right and those that want hard Brexit, Boris Johnson should just be a functional dictator for the remainder of this parliamentary term until 2022.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on August 31, 2019, 05:08:37 PM
Quote
Nigel Farage will withdraw candidates if Boris Johnson goes for ‘no deal’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql4_Ug8NSoU


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 01, 2019, 06:33:29 AM
The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 01, 2019, 06:43:12 AM
That is the dream scenario for him, yes.

But the hostages to fortune in it are considerable - not least the presumption that remainers will stay "divided". One of the encouraging things about yesterday's nationwide action is that it showed the potential for unity amongst his opponents. To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Did brilliant four dimensional chess galaxy brain Cummings see this happening, I wonder?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 01, 2019, 08:33:43 AM
FTPA might also complicate things: under the circumstances it would be quite politically legitimate for Labour and the other opposition parties to argue 'yes to an election soon, but not right now'.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 01, 2019, 08:36:33 AM
Starmer did indeed seem to be hinting as much this morning - stop no deal (on Oct 31 at least) and then push for a GE with prime minister Cummings Johnson suitably humbled.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 01, 2019, 08:52:56 AM
To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Nobody ever saw him as a bigger enemy. Just an enemy. And that has absolutely not changed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 01, 2019, 09:39:25 AM
To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Nobody ever saw him as a bigger enemy. Just an enemy. And that has absolutely not changed.

()

Wow, a 2015 meme. That's my entire argument defeated, better just become a Corbynite now.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 01, 2019, 09:53:21 AM
I mean great, if you want to keep on seeing Corbyn as an enemy, you can go on sitting on the moral high ground while Britain crashes out of the EU and tens of millions of people suffer the consequences.

Just because you want to try and pretend that high taxes and nationalisation are somehow just as evil as what the Conservative party are currently doing.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Mr. Illini on September 01, 2019, 10:24:11 AM
Since the prospect of a No Deal Brexit has become increasingly likely, do we think that Pelosi will actually block a trade deal with the UK as she has promised to do if there is no Irish backstop?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 01, 2019, 10:38:34 AM
Why wouldn't she? Besides there would be enourmous opposition here to a 'free' trade arrangement with the United States: I'm not even sure if it would be politically tenable.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 01, 2019, 10:56:01 AM
To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Nobody ever saw him as a bigger enemy. Just an enemy. And that has absolutely not changed.

Sorry, this is just not true.

Several self-declared centrists - including some very prominent ones - were quite explicit that they would rather have the Tories continue in office than a Corbyn-led Labour take power.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 01, 2019, 11:24:02 AM
Boris is basically reprising May's strategy of massive Brexit polarisation as the path to a majority. Maybe it will work a second time, but...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 01, 2019, 12:42:23 PM
I really think the timescale of a US-UK Trade Deal is being really exaggerated (both by the weird Atlantist eurosceptics, the Trump administration and the FBPE crowd)

Seeing as the EU-US TTIP took what 5+ years and then died, and the length and complexities of the EU-Canada deal, I can't see one being done and signed off when either Trump or Pelosi are in power.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 01, 2019, 12:53:06 PM
The same for an UK-EU trade deal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 02, 2019, 12:57:03 AM
The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.

Is it that smart, though? Standing on a manifesto to pursue a hard Brexit with a deal was what the Tories did in 2017; UKIP collapsed and they *still* didn't win. A manifesto with an explicit no-deal pledge (rather than as a last resort if a deal is impossible), as Farage has insisted would be required,  seems much more likely to be a net vote loser for the Tories. Sure, they might pick up a lot of Brexit Party support in the midlands and the north, but most of those seats have such huge Labour margins it wouldn't win the Tories many seats. Meanwhile, a no deal platform could see the Tories lose everything they have in Scotland, London, and any university/market towns in the SE.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 02, 2019, 08:26:05 AM
The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.

Is it that smart, though? Standing on a manifesto to pursue a hard Brexit with a deal was what the Tories did in 2017; UKIP collapsed and they *still* didn't win. A manifesto with an explicit no-deal pledge (rather than as a last resort if a deal is impossible), as Farage has insisted would be required,  seems much more likely to be a net vote loser for the Tories. Sure, they might pick up a lot of Brexit Party support in the midlands and the north, but most of those seats have such huge Labour margins it wouldn't win the Tories many seats. Meanwhile, a no deal platform could see the Tories lose everything they have in Scotland, London, and any university/market towns in the SE.

Maybe I'm more pessimestic than you, because I think there are a fair decent number of seats in areas like South Yorkshire and Tees Valley that could fall in such an election - at least more than the total Tory seats in England and Wales that would probably fall in the event of a Hard Brexit manifesto (especially if Lib Dems are hiving off the Hard Remainers from Labour's total numbers in the aforementioned market towns etc).

Even London etc is tricky. We already saw the cocky predictions that Labour made for the locals, where they confidently stated the pro-Labour trend in London was inevitable. The three Barnet marginals, for example, are going to be a hard get for Labour, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dem vote becomes vastly inflated in such areas. Besides, the more pro-Brexit outer suburbs which liked BoJo in his Mayoral runs (for example, Jon Cruddas's Dagenham seat) could offset probable losses like Mark Field in the Cities of London and Westminster.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 02, 2019, 08:52:54 AM
The smartest thing for Boris to do would be to call an election with No Deal as the official manifesto, allow BP to die, deselect anybody who can't accept that it's part of the manifesto, roll over the divided Remainers and pretend to the tired public that no deal would represent an end to this stupid phase.

Is it that smart, though? Standing on a manifesto to pursue a hard Brexit with a deal was what the Tories did in 2017; UKIP collapsed and they *still* didn't win. A manifesto with an explicit no-deal pledge (rather than as a last resort if a deal is impossible), as Farage has insisted would be required,  seems much more likely to be a net vote loser for the Tories. Sure, they might pick up a lot of Brexit Party support in the midlands and the north, but most of those seats have such huge Labour margins it wouldn't win the Tories many seats. Meanwhile, a no deal platform could see the Tories lose everything they have in Scotland, London, and any university/market towns in the SE.

Maybe I'm more pessimestic than you, because I think there are a fair decent number of seats in areas like South Yorkshire and Tees Valley that could fall in such an election - at least more than the total Tory seats in England and Wales that would probably fall in the event of a Hard Brexit manifesto (especially if Lib Dems are hiving off the Hard Remainers from Labour's total numbers in the aforementioned market towns etc).

Even London etc is tricky. We already saw the cocky predictions that Labour made for the locals, where they confidently stated the pro-Labour trend in London was inevitable. The three Barnet marginals, for example, are going to be a hard get for Labour, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dem vote becomes vastly inflated in such areas. Besides, the more pro-Brexit outer suburbs which liked BoJo in his Mayoral runs (for example, Jon Cruddas's Dagenham seat) could offset probable losses like Mark Field in the Cities of London and Westminster.

I'm pretty bearish about Lab/LD chances in the SE, tbh. I doubt it would end up being a net loss for them, but based on numbers and anecdotal observation (I live in Esher & Walton), the Tories have a pretty formidable wall of incumbents.

That said, I think the wall is even more formidable for Labour in the north. Not only do they have the same or larger margins in the seats they hold, they've already lost most of the most susceptible seats. Add to that the deep resentment in the area toward the Tories and I think you've got a recipe for Tory fools gold.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 02, 2019, 09:12:50 AM
do you feel the tories are going to lose some of their Surrey strongholds then?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 02, 2019, 09:16:09 AM
Of course mass auto-deselection (even expulsion has been threatened?) could easily trigger an actual Split under current conditions and then who even knows anything, anywhere.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MillennialModerate on September 02, 2019, 09:41:21 AM
Have to say Boris has played this great.

He’s talking with all the bluster of a confident leader that’s gung ho on a No Deal if need be, thus weakening the Brexit Party DRAMATICALLY. Now he seems primed to call an election with a weakened Labour, a handcuffed Brexit party: He’s going to thread the needle to a majority


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 02, 2019, 10:24:47 AM
do you feel the tories are going to lose some of their Surrey strongholds then?

As things stand today I wouldn't bet on it, but the material is there for an upset. It would require a formidable challenge by the Brexit Party AND mass tactical voting by Lab/LD/Green voters AND a historic low turnout among traditional Tory voters.

Have to say Boris has played this great.

He’s talking with all the bluster of a confident leader that’s gung ho on a No Deal if need be, thus weakening the Brexit Party DRAMATICALLY. Now he seems primed to call an election with a weakened Labour, a handcuffed Brexit party: He’s going to thread the needle to a majority

Must ... not ... feed ... trolls ...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 02, 2019, 10:30:17 AM
The Tories are not going to lose any of the Surrey strongholds. The majorities are too large and the voting patterns too baked in, not to mention the Lib Dems (who will be the benefactors of a hypothetical collapse, Labour would be even less likely to win them) have far better targets, both Tory and Labour, that they're not going to bother wasting time in unwinnable seats. Probably. Incompetence can't be ruled out, this is Britain after all


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Peanut on September 02, 2019, 10:56:20 AM
I haven't really been following the latest trends closely, not since the locals to be quite honest, so how has Boris changed the equation? I imagine the election would be a mess, but to whom would it be less of a disaster?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 02, 2019, 11:02:19 AM
Johnson got a bump in the polls, almost exclusively from siphoning off about 1/3 of the Brexit Party's support (around 5-7 points). That's put the Tories back into the low 30s, about 10 points ahead of Labour who are still splitting the bulk of the anti-Tory/Brexit vote with the Lib Dems (who are at around 18-22%).

Qualitatively, Johnson's tenure has been a psycho/melo-drama with feverish stories about his principal aide Dominic Cummings pulling all the strings. Johnson has averaged about one new spending announcement per week, with figures and policies that sound more New Labour than anything else.

An election now is a complete crap shoot. Depending on when it happens, vis a vis the UK leaving the EU, it could result in anything from a Tory majority to a Labour majority to anything in between.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on September 02, 2019, 11:25:02 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 02, 2019, 11:27:57 AM
I will say, again, that the recent tactics of Cummings Johnson have significantly united an opposition that had - as others said - become badly fractured since the 2017 GE.

(I mean "opposition" as in anti-Toryism more generally rather than the Labour party - though it could well be true there also, Watson and others have been notably low key in recent days)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 02, 2019, 11:31:05 AM
There actually hasn't been that much polling recently and much of it has been by one firm, one that recently has shown small but major differences to most of the others. So the picture even as it is now is not clear, let alone what might happen during a campaign.

Of course it is also possible that the cranking up of GE speculation today is mostly intended as putting on thumbscrews for the vote tomorrow.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 02, 2019, 11:36:27 AM
Very striking poll for NI just released, btw. Big gains for the Alliance Party who are now a strong third place, both of the "big two" clearly down on 2017, the old "big two" (UUP/SDLP) nowhere.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 02, 2019, 11:38:17 AM
Very striking poll for NI just released, btw. Big gains for the Alliance Party who are now a strong third place, both the "big two" down, the old "big two" (UUP/SDLP) nowhere.

FPTP would almost certainly limit Alliance gains but if they do get a seat or two it could potentially throw a spanner in the works if the Tories end up with a result similar to 2017


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 02, 2019, 12:03:40 PM
Boris Johnson is about to make a statement from Downing Street.

There's talk that he's going to announce he'll try to call an election for October 14th if MP's vote for an extension tomorrow (Hilary Benn has also presented the bill rebels intend to use to block a No-Deal Brexit).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 02, 2019, 12:16:56 PM
Can't think of any likely Alliance gains aside from Belfast East and South unless they start actually showing leads, but that's good nonetheless (even if polling in that region has been historically garbage).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 02, 2019, 12:19:58 PM
What in God's name was that?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 02, 2019, 12:22:14 PM
Remember that episode of The Thick of It where Hugh's idea to get through a press conference he hasn't got anything to say at is to highlight how he hasn't got anything to say?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 02, 2019, 12:23:44 PM
That was downright bizarre.

I get why most of the Cabinet will continue to stand besides him, but the more this insanity goes on the more frustrated I am at the sheer cowardice of people like Hancock or Rudd.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Dereich on September 02, 2019, 12:25:15 PM
It sounded like the intended audience of that speech was a dozen Conservative MPs. Why bother with a press conference?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Devout Centrist on September 02, 2019, 12:36:02 PM
It sounded like the intended audience of that speech was a dozen Conservative MPs. Why bother with a press conference?
Apparently they were all in the backyard?



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 02, 2019, 01:51:17 PM
Sensing a definite shift in the mood of the commentariat from "Cummings is a genius" to "Have they overplayed their hand?"


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 02, 2019, 02:14:22 PM
It sounded like the intended audience of that speech was a dozen Conservative MPs. Why bother with a press conference?

The most notable sound from that speech was the protesters chanting "stop the coup" so loudly they nearly drowned Johnson out!

Also, it must be remembered that thanks to the FTPA* it is no longer in the government's gift to decide when to dissolve parliament and hold an election. Unless Johnson orders one of his MPs to propose a motion of no confidence against his own government and then orders all his MPs to vote *against* it, he cannot just "call" an election.

*(The Fixed Term Parliaments Act stipulates only two scenarios in which an election may be called prior to its statutory date: a motion of *very specific* wording indicating no-confidence in the government being passed and then not being repealed within a period of 14 days, OR a 2/3 vote of the entire parliament (434 votes; quorum does not factor in) calling for an early election.)

For the record, it seems unlikely Johnson will get the votes for an early election, as many Labour MPs will abstain unless they feel it is to their party's advantage to bring down the government.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 02, 2019, 03:39:24 PM
After Corbyn's ad infinitum calls for a General Election, why would he block one now? He'd look 'frit' and a hafl.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 02, 2019, 04:21:22 PM
After Corbyn's ad infinitum calls for a General Election, why would he block one now? He'd look 'frit' and a hafl.

It isn't particularly hard to construct an Augustinian argument around the issue - a General Election soon but not just yet - given the circumstances and the need to prevent No Deal etc. I suspect the only people who would find that seriously objectionable would be political journalists.

I've no idea if that's the line they'll take or even if that's the decision they'll make, but it's there as an option.

Of course we don't even know for certain if the government will be defeated in the House on these issues: promised Tory rebellions under May had a habit of vanish under the slightest pressure. Could be this time is different, but we shall see.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gass3268 on September 02, 2019, 04:27:05 PM
BuzzFeed has a list of rebel Tory MPs that will vote against the Government:

Guto Bebb
Alistair Burt
David Gauke
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Richard Harrington
Oliver Letwin
Caroline Nokes
Antoinette Sandbach
Rory Stewart

Undecided:

David Lidington
Ed Vaizey
Steve Brine

Voting with the government:

Alan Duncan
Sarah Newton
Caroline Spelman

Source (https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/full-list-rebel-tory-mps-brexit)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MillennialModerate on September 02, 2019, 07:07:02 PM
Have to say Boris has played this great.

He’s talking with all the bluster of a confident leader that’s gung ho on a No Deal if need be, thus weakening the Brexit Party DRAMATICALLY. Now he seems primed to call an election with a weakened Labour, a handcuffed Brexit party: He’s going to thread the needle to a majority

Must ... not ... feed ... trolls ...

What of the things I said insinuates I’m a troll?

Especially considering this...




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Mr. Illini on September 02, 2019, 07:47:38 PM
Genuinely confused at why I’m seeing so many “Boris has won” takes out there (not necessarily here).

Doesn’t everything kind of hinge on the vote tomorrow?

Obviously, if Johnson wins, he’s shown that he has a majority in the Parliament and Corbyn would have to take a serious look at his options.

If Johnson loses the vote, Corbyn could go back on his call for an election. Boris then decides whether he’ll comply with the request to Brussels for a delay. If he does, Corbyn has succeeded in the short term.

If he does not comply, Corbyn has good reason and strong standing to call a No Confidence vote.

Am I getting anything wrong?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: J. J. on September 02, 2019, 09:10:34 PM
The EU should refuse to negotiate until Parliament is reopened.

Then the UK will just pull out.

The will of the people was expressed in the referendum, like it or not. 

(I am sure that Trump is asking if he can prorogue Congress.)

The will of the people was expressed once multiple Years Ago by a razor-thin margin. If we are truly concerned about the will of the people, hold another referendum, as polling indicates brexit would probably be repealed.

It always astounds me that the people who just want brexit for its own sake go on about the will of the people and democracy, and yet at the same time our Foursquare of against allowing the people to express what appears to be a majority in favor of second thoughts and regrets.

Oh no, they cry. We can't go back and forth and have a referendum on leaving every couple years. Who will think of the stability? Yeah, sure. Where's your Devotion to democracy in the will of the people now? With that kind of the will of the people binding Nation forevermore, we would still have prohibition in effect.

Just drop it pretense of caring about democracy. Supporters want brexit for brexit sake, and will fight to keep it anyway possible no matter how much of a klusterfuk it is turning into

If a society chooses to use a referendum, it better abide by the results.  It is not a pretense.   

The people made the decision, live with it. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: J. J. on September 02, 2019, 09:55:29 PM
Genuinely confused at why I’m seeing so many “Boris has won” takes out there (not necessarily here).

Doesn’t everything kind of hinge on the vote tomorrow?

Obviously, if Johnson wins, he’s shown that he has a majority in the Parliament and Corbyn would have to take a serious look at his options.

If Johnson loses the vote, Corbyn could go back on his call for an election. Boris then decides whether he’ll comply with the request to Brussels for a delay. If he does, Corbyn has succeeded in the short term.

If he does not comply, Corbyn has good reason and strong standing to call a No Confidence vote.

Am I getting anything wrong?

It seems to be the case, except that Johnson will likely face a vote of no confidence, and call for a new election.  It is a gamble, be he will likely win it. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Virginiá on September 02, 2019, 10:38:10 PM
If a society chooses to use a referendum, it better abide by the results.  It is not a pretense.  

The people made the decision, live with it.  

And given that the people made the decision to go down this path, you can just as easily argue that it is only proper to have a 2nd referendum asking how they want to exit (or whether they want to abort), given how incredibly bad the situation has been handled, and how indecisive the government has been on what appears to be no good options. It doesn't really make sense to say the people should be weigh in on leaving, but then when the govt cannot agree on how, that the people shouldn't again be given options for proceeding. Arguing against that seems more like fear that the people may choose to stay after all, in light of what has happened since (and what they have learned).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 03, 2019, 01:53:27 AM
If a society chooses to use a referendum, it better abide by the results.  It is not a pretense.   

The people made the decision, live with it. 

And given that the people made the decision to go down this path, you can just as easily argue that it is only proper to have a 2nd referendum asking how they want to exit (or whether they want to abort), given how incredibly bad the situation has been handled, and how indecisive the government has been on what appears to be no good options. It doesn't really make sense to say the people should be weigh in on leaving, but then when the govt cannot agree on how, that the people shouldn't again be given options for proceeding. Arguing against that seems more like fear that the people may choose to stay after all, in light of what has happened since (and what they have learned).

Indeed. A referendum can be democratic or it can be irreversible, but not both.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gustaf on September 03, 2019, 04:40:22 AM
If a society chooses to use a referendum, it better abide by the results.  It is not a pretense.   

The people made the decision, live with it. 

And given that the people made the decision to go down this path, you can just as easily argue that it is only proper to have a 2nd referendum asking how they want to exit (or whether they want to abort), given how incredibly bad the situation has been handled, and how indecisive the government has been on what appears to be no good options. It doesn't really make sense to say the people should be weigh in on leaving, but then when the govt cannot agree on how, that the people shouldn't again be given options for proceeding. Arguing against that seems more like fear that the people may choose to stay after all, in light of what has happened since (and what they have learned).

Indeed. A referendum can be democratic or it can be irreversible, but not both.

I think there is a distinction between saying a referendum is irreversible and saying it should be reversed after less than a typical parliamentary term.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on September 03, 2019, 04:48:14 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 03, 2019, 05:25:14 AM
I mean, the obvious point would be that unless you have a formal mechanism by which referendums are triggered, then they are always going to be a crap way of making policy. Because they are essentially never going to be anything more than arbitrary in terms of when and why they are held


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 03, 2019, 05:50:58 AM
The issue is, the referendum was always too vague to be an accurate litmus test of the public (which is why most analysts simply read their own pet theories into the results). Rather than "Leave" being a clear choice that Brexit Britain will go down (e.g. "Britain will leave the EU and enter into EFTA" or whatever) it was just "Leave". which is how we have the absurd sight of Brexiteers who once proclaimed Switzerland and Norway as exemplars during the referendum denouncing Norway as some kind of colonial annex of the EU.

I mean, say what you like about the SNP: people voting Yes in the 2014 referendum knew what they were voting for, and the kind of independence the government were pushing for.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 03, 2019, 06:28:14 AM
Good point, although I'd say that's a separate, though relevant, matter to the one gustaf brought up. The fact that the referendum question was vague and stipulated as 'advisory' granted wiggle room to Leave advocates during the campaign and Leave supporting politicians afterward. No doubt, this was a tactical advantage in winning the referendum but has turned out to be a strategic mistake. However, it's not a reason in and of itself for why the result of the referendum need not be implemented no matter what.

The matter of whether the referendum result - however badly worded the question - can or ought to be implemented without being annulled/preempted is more about democratic legitimacy than politicking. I grant that there is a pragmatic argument for not holding referendums on the same (massive) issue every few years, but having a confirmatory vote on an initial proposition is neither novel nor undemocratic. As it happens, many on the leave side proposed doing just this when they thought they were going to lose the first one!

Separately, I agree that a government/ruling class blithely ignoring the results of a referendum it called is arrogant and irresponsible, but I don't really think that applies here. The May/Johnson governments have tried - to the exclusion of almost all else, it seems - to implement the result as best they can. The fact that their efforts have been so hapless and incapable of garnering majority support in Parliament or among the general population doesn't negate the fact that they *did* try. Presented with such a state of affairs, calling for a second referendum on the same issue, albeit with clearer terms, is probably the most responsible course of action.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 03, 2019, 07:09:27 AM
Have to say Boris has played this great.

He’s talking with all the bluster of a confident leader that’s gung ho on a No Deal if need be, thus weakening the Brexit Party DRAMATICALLY. Now he seems primed to call an election with a weakened Labour, a handcuffed Brexit party: He’s going to thread the needle to a majority

Must ... not ... feed ... trolls ...

What of the things I said insinuates I’m a troll?

Especially considering this...



A poll that shows the Tories *losing* seats on 2017?

(when they were already at almost the bare minimum to govern)

And in a GE campaign "Boris" won't be able to hog the media coverage as he has until now.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gass3268 on September 03, 2019, 07:11:12 AM
Up to 15:



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gass3268 on September 03, 2019, 09:09:00 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gass3268 on September 03, 2019, 09:42:56 AM




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lachi on September 03, 2019, 09:55:55 AM
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1168895602912059392?s=21

what a savage, I love it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 03, 2019, 10:01:15 AM
No chance of him being re-elected but the less MPs in the two main parties the better, even if probably only briefly.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 03, 2019, 10:05:49 AM
No chance of him being re-elected but the less MPs in the two main parties the better, even if probably only briefly.

Really? This is a marginal leave area in suburban Greater London which saw a huge Remain related swing to Labour last election. Seems like the exact kind of place the LDs are going to be targeting in a few weeks.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 03, 2019, 10:11:42 AM
No chance of him being re-elected but the less MPs in the two main parties the better, even if probably only briefly.

Really? This is a marginal leave area in suburban Greater London which saw a huge Remain related swing to Labour last election. Seems like the exact kind of place the LDs are going to be targeting in a few months.

Bracknell is definitely not suburban Greater London. Also, while Labour did improve, it was mainly due the general third party collapse of 2017, Lee's majority barely fell at all. A 30% majority is going to be hard to overturn, nevermind a 51% majority which is what the Tories had over the LDs in 2017. Plus of course, as I said yesterday about the Surrey strongholds, the LDs have far better targets, not least defected MPs they actually have a chance of saving.

Of course, I'd like to be wrong, but I doubt it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 03, 2019, 10:16:35 AM
I agree, and arguably it makes such a thing more admirable.

(presuming that Lee knows that he has little chance of re-election in his new colours)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 03, 2019, 10:58:58 AM
Pretty gangsta to do it right in front of BoJo as he was speaking...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 03, 2019, 11:57:42 AM




They still have a working majority (of 1) if you count Charlie Elphicke, who has had the Tory whip suspended but will generally vote with the Government.  If they're really going to throw out everyone who votes against them tonight, the majority really will be gone.

My MP Jared O'Mara was expected to resign today, which would have moved it back to 0 excluding Elphicke or 2 including him, but apparently he has "postponed" this.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 03, 2019, 12:17:48 PM
This is why calling a general election would be a titanic gamble by Johnson:





Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 03, 2019, 12:30:35 PM
This is why calling a general election would be a titanic gamble by Johnson:





I mean that's fairly standard, nobody likes a GE for a buffer/in govt like May tried. But instill the Leavers with the sense of fear that Brexit may not happen - either by a short opposition unity govt, or a govt brought down by Remainers seeking to insert further delays, and I suspect the numbers flip. Like the opposition of course would want a GE more.

I mean, this is the whole reason why Boris's current 'campaign' message is "I'm ready for Brexit," he's expecting the Remainers to jam up the gears and change the direction from leaving in October to Leaving When???. It's the kind of message that will work even better when you are the only Leave faction with MPs standing against the proverbial hordes of Remainers.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 03, 2019, 12:48:20 PM






Two polarized worlds folks.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on September 03, 2019, 01:25:00 PM
If this is true then Labour supporters need to stop deriding Boris as an "unelected Prime Minister"; he wants a chance to be elected but you are refusing it.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 03, 2019, 01:35:21 PM
Consolidation around CON and LAB

()


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 03, 2019, 01:37:15 PM

A friendly reminder things can always get worse


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 03, 2019, 01:49:16 PM
If it comes to an election I wonder if LDEM will form an alliance with the Greens.  Doing so can greatly threaten the CON in the South as such an alliance can draw anti-CON LAB tactical voters.  Not sure if such an alliance can work in practice. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 03, 2019, 01:59:11 PM
If it comes to an election I wonder if LDEM will form an alliance with the Greens.  Doing so can greatly threaten the CON in the South as such an alliance can draw anti-CON LAB tactical voters.  Not sure if such an alliance can work in practice. 

They were very close to establishing such an alliance last month. It got put on hold seemingly by the kerfuffle over whether the LDs would support Corbyn as a replacement PM for Johnson. But the fundamental problem is that there's a severe dearth of seats where the LDs can reasonably be asked to stand aside for the Greens, which makes such an alliance unappealing for the Greens.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 03, 2019, 02:26:25 PM
Both the Lib Dem’s and Green can’t flip a switch- it’s a choice for local party members


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 03, 2019, 02:36:25 PM
> making conclusions based on the trends of one YouGov poll


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 03, 2019, 02:48:31 PM
> making conclusions based on the trends of one YouGov poll
On the back of that poll, I think that we can safely conclude that YouGov stand to make a lot of money if a general election is called


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 03, 2019, 02:53:14 PM
> making conclusions based on the trends of one YouGov poll

Not just one poll:

()

If the Leave vote is able to coalesce, which is easier then uniting the Remain vote, then that's a GE victory. TBH it is already occurring since the early-august creation of this chart: the Brexit party is flailing and Farage is now begging for scraps from the the Conservatives now that he lacks a guaranteed personal seat in Parliament.  The only way for the Remainers to reverse this fate is to team up - running alone and hoping voters act strategically isn't enough. A remain govt requires the LDs strength in the Remain/Tory south, Labour's seats to hold in the Brexit north, and the SNP to not distract both from the battles in the south.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 03, 2019, 02:59:39 PM
Recent CON support in recent polls looks a lot like CON support right before the 2015 election.  Brexit party support in recent polls looks a lot like UKIP support right before the 2015 election.  What is different is that LAB support is lower and LDEM and Green support are higher.  What is key are how the LAB and LDEM support are structured which could drive anti-CON tactical voting.  If Johnson loses the vote in Parliament and manage to get a election the circumstances will drive Brexit party tactical voting for CON.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 03, 2019, 03:34:37 PM
()


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 03, 2019, 03:42:26 PM
()


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 03, 2019, 03:49:16 PM
And now, in the greatest of ironies:



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 03, 2019, 03:51:40 PM
Result coming in around 15 minutes.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 03, 2019, 04:05:37 PM
This has been pointed out many times, but the hypocrisy of the Brexiteer serial rebels getting rewarded with cabinet positions while anti-no deal rebels losing the whips is disgusting. While too many Tories have put career and party before country, the likely decisive few who put country before party and career should be commended.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Sestak on September 03, 2019, 04:11:01 PM
AYE 328

NAY 301


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 03, 2019, 04:11:12 PM
Aye 328-301 no.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gass3268 on September 03, 2019, 04:11:59 PM
Damn 27 vote margin!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 03, 2019, 04:12:23 PM
Some cheeky guy shouts out "not a good start Boris!" lol. True, he has lost the first ever parliamentary vote of his premiership, which seems pretty special.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Sestak on September 03, 2019, 04:14:13 PM
Johnson confirms he is tabling a dissolution under FTPA.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gass3268 on September 03, 2019, 04:14:55 PM
Some cheeky guy shouts out "not a good start Boris!" lol. True, he has lost the first ever parliamentary vote of his premiership, which seems pretty special.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 03, 2019, 04:24:13 PM
Very poor response from Johnson to the defeat - incoherent ranting. Corbyn confirms Labour's position as to support an election only if No Deal is negated.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 03, 2019, 04:25:19 PM
Tory Ayes (21):

Guto Bebb
Richard Benyon
Steve Brine
Alistair Burt
Greg Clark
Ken Clarke
David Gauke
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Philip Hammond
Stephen Hammond
Richard Harrington
Margot James
Oliver Letwin
Anne Milton
Caroline Nokes
Antoinette Sandbach
Nicholas Soames
Rory Stewart
Ed Vaizey

I can't help thinking there's more substance there than in what'll be left of the parliamentary Tory party if they have the whip withdrawn as rumoured.  (Insert joke about Soames here.)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 03, 2019, 04:31:12 PM
Non-Tory/DUP Noes:

Kate Hoey (Lab)
John Mann (Lab)
Ian Austin (Ind, ex-Lab)
Charlie Elphicke (Ind, suspended Con)
Ivan Lewis (Ind, ex-Lab)

Four Independents didn't vote: Hopkins, O'Mara, Williamson, Woodcock.  Neither did two Labour MPs: Kevin Barron and Derek Twigg.  Of course there may be good reasons for these other than intentional abstentions.  EDIT: there were in Twigg's case.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 03, 2019, 04:32:53 PM
Apparently Leadsom says the whip won't be withdrawn now, but perhaps it will be if they vote against the government again tomorrow.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on September 03, 2019, 04:37:29 PM
Non-Tory/DUP Noes:

Kate Hoey (Lab)
Kate Hoey is the absolute worst.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 03, 2019, 04:46:18 PM
Apparently Leadsom says the whip won't be withdrawn now, but perhaps it will be if they vote against the government again tomorrow.

Apparently other government sources say that the whip is withdrawn, but confirm it will be returned in the event of positive  votes tomorrow.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 03, 2019, 04:47:00 PM

The weird thing is her constituency went 78% to Remain.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 03, 2019, 04:49:08 PM
Apparently Leadsom says the whip won't be withdrawn now, but perhaps it will be if they vote against the government again tomorrow.

Government sources confirm that the whip is withdrawn, but will be returned in the event of positive  votes tomorrow.

In other words, they got booted out of the party?

You Brits always have some fancy-sounding words for everything


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 03, 2019, 04:51:15 PM
Now reports are the 21 Tory rebels lose the whip in all circumstances.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 03, 2019, 04:53:05 PM
Apparently Leadsom says the whip won't be withdrawn now, but perhaps it will be if they vote against the government again tomorrow.

Government sources confirm that the whip is withdrawn, but will be returned in the event of positive  votes tomorrow.

In other words, they got booted out of the party?

You Brits always have some fancy-sounding words for everything

You use the time 'whip' in Congress too.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 03, 2019, 04:54:56 PM
Apparently Leadsom says the whip won't be withdrawn now, but perhaps it will be if they vote against the government again tomorrow.

Government sources confirm that the whip is withdrawn, but will be returned in the event of positive  votes tomorrow.

In other words, they got booted out of the party?

You Brits always have some fancy-sounding words for everything

You use the time 'whip' in Congress too.

I live in Austria, so I'm not that familiar with Anglo-Saxon law/processes.

So, does "taking away the whip" basically just means kicking someone out?

I know "whipping" is used to discipline votes, but I'm clueless about the taking away thing.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 03, 2019, 04:58:14 PM
Thus Boris becomes head of the minority government with the least amount of seats since... Ramsay MacDonald, I think.

Only 289 Conservative MP's left now, plus 10 of the DUP and the suspended Conservative (Elphicke).

Or to put it another way - even though many of these MP's will vote with the government on plenty of stuff - Boris now has a majority of... -43.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 03, 2019, 05:01:57 PM
The 21 are no longer official Tories.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 03, 2019, 05:03:11 PM


Normal, normal, behaviour, very normal - extremely normal. The very definition of the norm.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: J. J. on September 03, 2019, 05:19:02 PM
I take it that, if necessary, Johnson can arrange a vote of no confidence and get a dissolution? 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 03, 2019, 05:21:56 PM
I take it that, if necessary, Johnson can arrange a vote of no confidence and get a dissolution? 

Boris Johnson: "My crowning achievement was that I was able to force through a voice of no confidence in myself. Please vote for me."


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: NyIndy on September 03, 2019, 05:22:16 PM
Could they join the Lib Dems?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: J. J. on September 03, 2019, 05:26:07 PM

Or sit as "independent Tories."


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 03, 2019, 05:26:07 PM


Normal, normal, behaviour, very normal - extremely normal. The very definition of the norm.

"Why won't Jeremy Corbyn debate run against me?"


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: J. J. on September 03, 2019, 05:28:58 PM
I take it that, if necessary, Johnson can arrange a vote of no confidence and get a dissolution? 

Boris Johnson: "My crowning achievement was that I was able to force through a voice of no confidence in myself. Please vote for me."


He cannot dissolve Parliament anymore, but it would have the same effect.

"A vote for Boris is a vote for Brexit," would be the main slogan. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 03, 2019, 05:35:43 PM
Maybe the EU will finally come to its senses and refuse any further extension, meaning a default no-deal Brexit unless MPs come to senses and vote for old May's deal. This is wasting everyone's time and it can be used far more productively.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pandaguineapig on September 03, 2019, 05:37:29 PM
Maybe the EU will finally come to its senses and refuse any further extension, meaning a default no-deal Brexit unless MPs come to senses and vote for old May's deal. This is wasting everyone's time and it can be used far more productively.
I think France is the only country that has given an indication that they might veto an extension


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Free North on September 03, 2019, 05:43:04 PM
“It is pleasant, when the sea is high and the winds are dashing the waves about, to watch from the shores the struggles of another.”


-Livy


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 03, 2019, 05:43:50 PM
Maybe the EU will finally come to its senses and refuse any further extension, meaning a default no-deal Brexit unless MPs come to senses and vote for old May's deal. This is wasting everyone's time and it can be used far more productively.
I think France is the only country that has given an indication that they might veto an extension

It definitely should.

I'm no happy Eu flag-waving hippie, but I still think it's more positive on a continent ridden by wars since, well basically, the beginning of history.

The British disagree and voted to leave, and everyone was more than patient. All the politicians over there expect everyone to just wait while they continue milking out as much political credit out of the issue as possible, and that's definitely not what they should be doing.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 03, 2019, 05:45:09 PM
The 21 includes the father of the House, kicked out after 49 years, some who were in cabinet just a couple of months ago like Philip Hammond, and Churchill's grandson, Nicholas Soames.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 03, 2019, 06:00:24 PM
()
The former prime minister, Theresa May, leaves the Houses of the Parliament after Boris Johnson’s defeat Photograph: Henry Nicholls/Reuters
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/03/commons-showdown-looms-in-battle-over-no-deal-brexit-live

While May didn't rebel, she possibly sympathizes with the rebellion or at least is happy Boris is suffering parliamentary defeats instead of her.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 03, 2019, 06:03:26 PM
Anarchy in the UK!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 03, 2019, 06:16:25 PM
There are now more Independent MPs (of various descriptors) than at any time since the modern party system emerged in parliament over two centuries ago. There are 40 such MPs even if you exclude Elphicke, which means they overtake the SNP as the third biggest group in the HoC.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: LabourJersey on September 03, 2019, 06:21:27 PM
There are now more Independent MPs (of various descriptors) than at any time since the modern party system emerged in parliament over two centuries ago. There are 40 such MPs even if you exclude Elphicke, which means they overtake the SNP as the third biggest group in the HoC.

The British are currently suffering the curse of living in interesting times


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: J. J. on September 03, 2019, 06:23:39 PM
The 21 includes the father of the House, kicked out after 49 years, some who were in cabinet just a couple of months ago like Philip Hammond, and Churchill's grandson, Nicholas Soames.

Clark also was a minister through both the Thacher and Major premiership. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 03, 2019, 06:30:46 PM
The British are currently suffering the curse of living in interesting times

Yes, thank you for that original and insightful observation, it had not occurred to anyone before.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 03, 2019, 06:33:27 PM
There are now more Independent MPs (of various descriptors) than at any time since the modern party system emerged in parliament over two centuries ago. There are 40 such MPs even if you exclude Elphicke, which means they overtake the SNP as the third biggest group in the HoC.

The British are currently suffering the curse of living in interesting times

They are at least helping me feel better about our situation here in the United States. We have a chance to rectify it next year. The UK may very well be screwed for the long haul.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 03, 2019, 06:42:38 PM
There are now more Independent MPs (of various descriptors) than at any time since the modern party system emerged in parliament over two centuries ago. There are 40 such MPs even if you exclude Elphicke, which means they overtake the SNP as the third biggest group in the HoC.

Change UK is clearly a political party even if a moribund one, so I think we should say 35 instead of 40 "true" independents.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 03, 2019, 06:47:57 PM
I know "whipping" is used to discipline votes, but I'm clueless about the taking away thing.

Meaning you're suspended from the parliamentary party.

It can go the other way too. Until 1972 Ulster Unionist were taking the conservative parliamentary whip, essentially functioning as the Tory branch in the Northern Ireland. They refused the whip in protest against Heath's policy regarding the conflict there, effectively depriving him of the votes he needed to form a coalition after February 1974 election produced a hung parliament.

The 21 includes the father of the House, kicked out after 49 years, some who were in cabinet just a couple of months ago like Philip Hammond, and Churchill's grandson, Nicholas Soames.

Clark also was a minister through both the Thacher and Major premiership. 

And during the Cameron ministry (as Lord Chancellor, then minister w/o portfolio).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 03, 2019, 07:59:24 PM
Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 03, 2019, 08:00:04 PM
Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?

DOMINIC CUMMINGS, STRATEGIC MASTERMIND


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Indy Texas on September 03, 2019, 08:38:23 PM
The EU should refuse to negotiate until Parliament is reopened.

Then the UK will just pull out.

The will of the people was expressed in the referendum, like it or not. 

(I am sure that Trump is asking if he can prorogue Congress.)

The will of the people was expressed once multiple Years Ago by a razor-thin margin. If we are truly concerned about the will of the people, hold another referendum, as polling indicates brexit would probably be repealed.

It always astounds me that the people who just want brexit for its own sake go on about the will of the people and democracy, and yet at the same time our Foursquare of against allowing the people to express what appears to be a majority in favor of second thoughts and regrets.

Oh no, they cry. We can't go back and forth and have a referendum on leaving every couple years. Who will think of the stability? Yeah, sure. Where's your Devotion to democracy in the will of the people now? With that kind of the will of the people binding Nation forevermore, we would still have prohibition in effect.

Just drop it pretense of caring about democracy. Supporters want brexit for brexit sake, and will fight to keep it anyway possible no matter how much of a klusterfuk it is turning into

If a society chooses to use a referendum, it better abide by the results.  It is not a pretense.   

The people made the decision, live with it. 

The referendum was on whether or not to leave. It provided no information whatsoever about what the terms of leaving would be, other than the blatantly dishonest nonsense peddled by the Conservatives and UKIP about how it would be "a great deal."

The proper thing to do would have been to negotiate a deal with the EU and then put the deal to a referendum.

It's clear that the British people do not want to leave on the terms that are possible, and if Brexit supporters are so confident, they should have no issues with letting The People sign off on the finished product.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 03, 2019, 08:40:38 PM

lmao


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 03, 2019, 08:55:17 PM
Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?

I don't think BoJo's and Rees-Mogg's privileged little brains are able to fully accept things may not go their way at the end. People like them were raised to believe this s**t.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 04, 2019, 12:01:06 AM
Tory Ayes (21):

Guto Bebb
Steve Brine
Alistair Burt
this cannot be real. these cannot be real people. george lucas-ass country

Guto Bebb’s wife is named Esyllt Bebb, ftr.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on September 04, 2019, 02:50:25 AM
Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?

Jokes aside it is actually because I don't think there will be more rebels.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 04, 2019, 03:31:43 AM
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/ has now been updated.  Note that this counts the Deputy Speakers as members of their parties when they don't vote, so in terms of practical Commons arithmetic there are 288 Tories and 245 Labour.

The 36 Independents are made up of:
- 21 ex-Tories who lost the whip yesterday
- 5 MPs, four ex-Labour and one ex-Tory, who form "The Independents" (which is only a group, not a party, not to be confused with "The Independent Group for Change", which is a party).
- Nick Boles, ex-Tory who resigned the whip earlier in the year
- Frank Field, ex-Labour who recently announced that he intended to contest the next election for the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party"
- Ian Austin, ex-Labour who votes with the Government on Brexit
- Ivan Lewis, ex-Labour who also now tends to vote with the Government on Brexit
- Stephen Lloyd, ex-Lib Dem
- Chris Williamson and Kelvin Hopkins, suspended Labour MPs
- Charlie Elphicke, suspended Tory MP
- Sylvia Hermon, former UUP MP for North Down who won in 2010, 2015 and 2017 as an Independent
- Jared O'Mara, ex-Labour who was going to resign but seems to have changed his mind but still didn't vote yesterday :(


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 04, 2019, 04:46:20 AM
"There were at least four individuals who were still doubtful who changed their position to being supportive and voting with us on the back of Jacob’s performance. He was deemed to be arrogant, out of touch and I think the way in which he treated some of the interventions was a red rag to bull in many cases."-Guto Bebb
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/04/brexit-crisis-boris-johnson-mps-bill-blocking-no-deal-eu-no-deal-parliament-politics-live?page=with:block-5d6f82c98f08b2e15bc1a01c#block-5d6f82c98f08b2e15bc1a01c


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GoTfan on September 04, 2019, 05:22:48 AM
Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?

DOMINIC CUMMINGS, STRATEGIC MASTERMIND

All part of BoJo's master plan for world domination, of course.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 04, 2019, 06:28:48 AM
Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?

I imagine the idea is that once an election has been forced they will be replaced in their mostly safe Tory constituencies with True Believers who will do Johnson's bidding.  It might not be as simple as that, but I don't feel very confident that Johnson with most of the media behind him and a divided opposition can't win.

I think the Lib Dems ought to consider standing aside if they choose to run as independents, partly to encourage them to do so.  Labour standing aside is less likely to be helpful and might actually be counterproductive in most of these constituencies, as well as more controversial.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on September 04, 2019, 06:36:59 AM
So if I'm a soft Brexiteer Tory what party do I vote for next election?

That's where BJ's gamble may pay off. He can play it as Corbyn vs his hard Brexit and polls showed us in the last leadership election that Corbyn is what unites the Tory party, and probably electorate.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 04, 2019, 09:05:06 AM
I must say it's quote impressive for someone to the the Prime Minister for little over the month and lose first major vote and your majority.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Flyersfan232 on September 04, 2019, 11:26:31 AM
I must say it's quote impressive for someone to the the Prime Minister for little over the month and lose first major vote and your majority.
if he a elections he likely to gain it back pretty soon he not may who I now believe might have deliberately screw up brexit


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 04, 2019, 11:46:09 AM
I'm currently at the Remain rally in Westminster (yeah, yeah, I know, I'm with a family member who wanted to go, wasn't my choice)

So far all of the Speakers have been from a Brexit supporting party, and now we're on Diane Abbott (which is a lol in itself), who's main theme of her speech seems to be 'Aren't I great'

We're really not making this easy for ourselves


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 04, 2019, 11:48:03 AM
So far all of the Speakers have been from a Brexit supporting party, and now we're on Diane Abbott

Oh, this canard


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 04, 2019, 11:49:15 AM
So far all of the Speakers have been from a Brexit supporting party, and now we're on Diane Abbott

Oh, this canard

A week of platitudes does not erase three years of inaction


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 04, 2019, 11:56:28 AM
So far all of the Speakers have been from a Brexit supporting party, and now we're on Diane Abbott

Oh, this canard

A week of platitudes does not erase three years of inaction

What would have been adequate action for a party that was committed in principle to respecting the referendum result? Or is having been committed in principle to respecting the referendum result until it became clear that the two realistic long-term options were crash-out or revocation enough in itself to still make a party "Brexit-supporting" now that that's become clear?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 04, 2019, 12:06:22 PM
So far all of the Speakers have been from a Brexit supporting party, and now we're on Diane Abbott

Oh, this canard

A week of platitudes does not erase three years of inaction

What would have been adequate action for a party that was committed in principle to respecting the referendum result? Or is having been committed in principle to respecting the referendum result until it became clear that the two realistic long-term options were crash-out or revocation enough in itself to still make a party "Brexit-supporting" now that that's become clear?

I expected the opposition to oppose. It did not. Thus, that it has now decided to do so as it has become politically expedient does not erase over three years of Little Englander Labour.

Now if the Labour party does the right thing (for the wrong reasons of course) I'm not going to say no, but their inaction and capitulation isn't going to be forgotten.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 04, 2019, 12:09:05 PM
Anyway, most of these speakers have been shockingly uninspiring. Thornberry has been the best speaker but her actual track record isn't great. Sadiq Khan wasn't bad either but he was only up for about thirty seconds before buggering off. Don't blame him.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 04, 2019, 12:15:47 PM
From the Grauniad livestream: "'Boris knows how to win' - Trump backs Johnson despite PM's latest setback".

I wonder when Boris will get tired of winning.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 04, 2019, 12:17:20 PM
Swinson was okay.

Ian Blackford, who I despise for non-Brexit reasons, is an annoyingly good speaker.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 04, 2019, 12:42:26 PM
I must say it's quote impressive for someone to the the Prime Minister for little over the month and lose first major vote and your majority.
if he a elections he likely to gain it back pretty soon he not may who I now believe might have deliberately screw up brexit

Sounds a bit like a gambling addict... "but with the next round I'm gonna win it ALL back".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 04, 2019, 02:03:15 PM
How is this measure even enforceable , like No Deal Brexit isn’t something that can’t be stopped unless the PM asks for an extension. Trade is an authority which lies with the leader of a nation so really the only way this can be enforceable is through a no confidence motion which in turn might make no Deal Brexit even more likely .


If Labour and parliament in general worked with May the UK wouldn’t be in this mess .


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 04, 2019, 02:11:54 PM
So what are the powers of the House of Lords, can they delay the bill until the proroguing of parliament or something similar?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 04, 2019, 02:30:45 PM
So what are the powers of the House of Lords, can they delay the bill until the proroguing of parliament or something similar?

In theory yes, but my understanding is that a motion in the Lords has been tabled to limit debate to the next two days or so. The Lords also has a much, much smaller Tory plurality than the Commons, even after Johnson's purge of the rebels last night; the government can still rely on about 45% of the Commons but barely a third of the Lords (or, at least, the Lords' total membership, not all of which regularly participates in its business).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 04, 2019, 03:16:20 PM
Seeing as it has been hinted at by certain members of the government - assuming Johnson is mandated to ask the EU for an article 50 extension, but just doesn't actually do it, what happens then? That would technically be breaking the law right? Would he get prosecuted for it?

Also, I want some of whatever Old School Republican is smoking.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 04, 2019, 03:29:10 PM
The issue with the Lords is that the Brexiteer Peers are tabling almost 100 amendments to ensure they slow debate down and the bill does not recieve royal assent before prorogation. Hard to tell whether the Lords can manage to overcome that in time.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 04, 2019, 03:41:29 PM
MP's vote against holding a General Election (most abstained, but a two thirds majority is required).

Another defeat for Boris, though Corbyn has promised to support an election once (if) the bill recieves Royal Assent. Some Labour MP may oppose him on that, but there should be a General Election sooner rather than later.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 04, 2019, 03:47:34 PM
Good on Labour not taking Boris' bait with a general election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 04, 2019, 03:58:33 PM
Yeah, I hope the myth of BoJo and Cummings as strategic masterminds is dead and buried now. The expulsion of the rebels is especially baffling, since as long as they had something to lose as Tory MPs they might have been reasoned with (at least to try to prevent a no-confidence vote) but now they're entirely free to topple BoJo and install PM Ken Clarke or whomever. BoJo has no way of actually getting the election he desperately wants, and now he has no way to force through a no-deal Brexit. He really shot himself in the foot. That seems to be a pattern with #populist <3 leaders this Summer, after Salvini's equally hilarious own-goal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 04, 2019, 04:03:26 PM
Seeing as it has been hinted at by certain members of the government - assuming Johnson is mandated to ask the EU for an article 50 extension, but just doesn't actually do it, what happens then? That would technically be breaking the law right? Would he get prosecuted for it?

Also, I want some of whatever Old School Republican is smoking.


He can tie the issue up in the courts which due to time frame could force no deal Brexit . So only option parliament has is to force new election


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pandaguineapig on September 04, 2019, 04:08:59 PM
Yeah, I hope the myth of BoJo and Cummings as strategic masterminds is dead and buried now. The expulsion of the rebels is especially baffling, since as long as they had something to lose as Tory MPs they might have been reasoned with (at least to try to prevent a no-confidence vote) but now they're entirely free to topple BoJo and install PM Ken Clarke or whomever. BoJo has no way of actually getting the election he desperately wants, and now he has no way to force through a no-deal Brexit. He really shot himself in the foot. That seems to be a pattern with #populist <3 leaders this Summer, after Salvini's equally hilarious own-goal.
The odds of Labour backing a Clarke government are roughly zero


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Dereich on September 04, 2019, 04:22:18 PM
Seeing as it has been hinted at by certain members of the government - assuming Johnson is mandated to ask the EU for an article 50 extension, but just doesn't actually do it, what happens then? That would technically be breaking the law right? Would he get prosecuted for it?

Also, I want some of whatever Old School Republican is smoking.


He can tie the issue up in the courts which due to time frame could force no deal Brexit . So only option parliament has is to force new election

I would advise that you read up on Parliamentary Sovereignty (https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/sovereignty/). This is not the United States and the courts are explicitly not equal to Parliament. The courts cannot challenge a lawful act of Parliament.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 04, 2019, 04:30:17 PM
Guess we will get another season of Dumpster fire politics, hurray!



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 04, 2019, 04:32:37 PM
Guess we will get another season of Dumpster fire politics, hurray!



We call them skips in the UK. Suggest this thread is renamed to "Blackadder's Skip Fire".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 04, 2019, 04:42:06 PM
Guess we will get another season of Dumpster fire politics, hurray!



We call them skips in the UK. Suggest this thread is renamed to "Blackadder's Skip Fire".

Thanks, now I know some proper British slang!

At least the level of speaking and vocabulary in the UK chambers is fitting for politicians, so at least when bad politicians talk, they don't talk like 9-year-olds, like I often hear from US politicians.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 04, 2019, 05:12:29 PM
Yeah, I hope the myth of BoJo and Cummings as strategic masterminds is dead and buried now. The expulsion of the rebels is especially baffling, since as long as they had something to lose as Tory MPs they might have been reasoned with (at least to try to prevent a no-confidence vote) but now they're entirely free to topple BoJo and install PM Ken Clarke or whomever. BoJo has no way of actually getting the election he desperately wants, and now he has no way to force through a no-deal Brexit. He really shot himself in the foot. That seems to be a pattern with #populist <3 leaders this Summer, after Salvini's equally hilarious own-goal.
The odds of Labour backing a Clarke government are roughly zero

I thought Corbyn had already tentatively agreed to such an arrangement if it becomes necessary to stop no deal?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 04, 2019, 05:31:29 PM
I unironically wish Michael Heseltine was still an MP, thus available to lead the government of national unity.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 04, 2019, 05:44:20 PM
Guess we will get another season of Dumpster fire politics, hurray!



We call them skips in the UK. Suggest this thread is renamed to "Blackadder's Skip Fire".

Can you translate "great big girl's blouse" into American English?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 04, 2019, 06:13:26 PM
House of Lords currently voting down wrecking amendments from Brexiteer aristos. Thirteen or so have been defeated already. God only knows how many to go.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 04, 2019, 08:13:37 PM
Lib Dem peer (of the ~entrepreneur and philanthropist~ subspecies) Paul Strasburger tweets that the Government in the Lords has caved (https://twitter.com/LordStras/status/1169406124505870336).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 04, 2019, 08:24:38 PM
Yeah, I hope the myth of BoJo and Cummings as strategic masterminds is dead and buried now. The expulsion of the rebels is especially baffling, since as long as they had something to lose as Tory MPs they might have been reasoned with (at least to try to prevent a no-confidence vote) but now they're entirely free to topple BoJo and install PM Ken Clarke or whomever. BoJo has no way of actually getting the election he desperately wants, and now he has no way to force through a no-deal Brexit. He really shot himself in the foot. That seems to be a pattern with #populist <3 leaders this Summer, after Salvini's equally hilarious own-goal.
The odds of Labour backing a Clarke government are roughly zero

I thought Corbyn had already tentatively agreed to such an arrangement if it becomes necessary to stop no deal?

Obviously it would be difficult for either Labour or LibDem leader to head such a government. It's kind of like in 1930 with MacDonald with his small following of "National Labour" heading a national government dominated by the Tories.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 04, 2019, 09:06:16 PM
Prime Minister Ken Clarke is never going to happen, but by the gods he was brilliant today against Boris on the election debate. The man will leave the Commons with a roar.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Green Line on September 04, 2019, 09:39:24 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Mikado on September 04, 2019, 10:41:57 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

They could've avoided all of this if Theresa May hadn't called an election in 2017 and lost her majority, forcing a really awkward minority government supported by nutjobs from Northern Ireland. Just saying, Tories brought this on themselves.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Perlen vor den Schweinen on September 04, 2019, 11:17:58 PM
I unironically wish Michael Heseltine was still an MP, thus available to lead the government of national unity.

Blondman will come and save the nation!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 05, 2019, 01:46:53 AM
Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?

I imagine the idea is that once an election has been forced they will be replaced in their mostly safe Tory constituencies with True Believers who will do Johnson's bidding.

Yes, I do see the theoretical logic in withdrawing the whip from the rebels and then immediately calling an election to get rid of them.  But when you still need all the precious votes you can get to call the election in the first place, suddenly pulling the rugs (of safe re-election) our from under 21 of your own MPs is not a particularly clever way to go about it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 05, 2019, 01:48:38 AM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.

Indeed, Boris truly is the worst.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 05, 2019, 01:58:51 AM
This mess shows why the US system is much better. A strong separate executive branch would have avoided this mess .


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 05, 2019, 02:11:12 AM
^ Please stop posting in this thread.  You’re embarrassing the rest of us Americans.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 05, 2019, 02:55:00 AM
Guess we will get another season of Dumpster fire politics, hurray!



We call them skips in the UK. Suggest this thread is renamed to "Blackadder's Skip Fire".

Can you translate "great big girl's blouse" into American English?

"You're a wimpy girl":

https://www.thecut.com/2019/09/boris-johnson-big-girls-blouse-meaning.html (https://www.thecut.com/2019/09/boris-johnson-big-girls-blouse-meaning.html)



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 05, 2019, 04:19:43 AM
Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?

I imagine the idea is that once an election has been forced they will be replaced in their mostly safe Tory constituencies with True Believers who will do Johnson's bidding.

Yes, I do see the theoretical logic in withdrawing the whip from the rebels and then immediately calling an election to get rid of them.  But when you still need all the precious votes you can get to call the election in the first place, suddenly pulling the rugs (of safe re-election) our from under 21 of your own MPs is not a particularly clever way to go about it.

Particularly odd is that some had already announced they were retiring at the next election and that others were obviously contemplating it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 05, 2019, 05:26:40 AM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 05, 2019, 05:33:18 AM


BoJo has lost his brother.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 05, 2019, 05:36:48 AM
There seems to be a bit of a dangerous assumption among those who supported this Bill that the EU would automatically approve another extension. The Bill takes this as a given - it is not. If there is a clear prospect of an alternative Government coming to power (which, according to polling there isnt) or a second referendum, then yes they would likely, but otherwise I have my doubts. The idea of renegotiating with Mr.Johnson is a obvious farce at this point. Very many people in the EU, chiefly the French, want this over as soon as possible, even if that means no-deal.
It would be very ironic if the EU were the ones forcibly delivering the referendum result, against the will of the "traitors" in the UK parliament. I wonder what the Brexiteers would say then.

It looks like there will be a general election very soon though and the outcome is unpredictable so the EU probably should grant an extension.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 05, 2019, 05:46:35 AM
Luciana Berger, MP for Liverpool Wavertree, ex-Labour, then Change UK, most recently one of "The Independents", has joined the Lib Dems.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Brittain33 on September 05, 2019, 05:54:34 AM
Oh my God, the potential for an Orpington by-election with a surprise rejection of Conservatives is just too poetic for words.

(Yes, I know it voted leave. And there will be an election so no by-election. Let me dream.)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 05, 2019, 06:30:16 AM
There seems to be a bit of a dangerous assumption among those who supported this Bill that the EU would automatically approve another extension. The Bill takes this as a given - it is not. If there is a clear prospect of an alternative Government coming to power (which, according to polling there isnt) or a second referendum, then yes they would likely, but otherwise I have my doubts. The idea of renegotiating with Mr.Johnson is a obvious farce at this point. Very many people in the EU, chiefly the French, want this over as soon as possible, even if that means no-deal.
It would be very ironic if the EU were the ones forcibly delivering the referendum result, against the will of the "traitors" in the UK parliament. I wonder what the Brexiteers would say then.

It looks like there will be a general election very soon though and the outcome is unpredictable so the EU probably should grant an extension.

Whatever they may say, it is inconceivable the EU won't grant an extension if a GE is called soon. And they certainly won't be foolish enough to uncritically believe opinion polls after 2017.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Mr. Illini on September 05, 2019, 07:44:49 AM
This mess shows why the US system is much better. A strong separate executive branch would have avoided this mess .

()


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: rosin on September 05, 2019, 08:15:00 AM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

The government is surely holding itself hostage. If it wasn't for Boris' stubbornity
(if that word exists :D ), the situation would not be as chaotic as now.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 05, 2019, 09:33:22 AM
Speaking of possible national unity government, the combined force of the Tory dissenders that had their whip withdrawn, Labour and Liberal Democrats posses only 284 votes, which is well short of the required majority of 326. Such a coalition would require additional votes from other groups, and this is where it becomes tricky. The SNP has a substantial numbers (35 MPs), but it's the party that's fundamentally opposed to preserving the Union, and thus a strange candidate. A "confidence and supply" could be a diffrent matter, though.

So, if we were to add remaining non-separatist, pro-European parties to the mix, we'll still have only 298 votes. There are also a few independents (discounting the Tory dissidents), but I dare not to weight on this here.

And there's another problem with the Tory dissidents: they're not really a monolithic group and some are already expressing interest to get back on as soon as possible.

At this point I think it's not impossible for Boris to hang on just like May had, despite losing a vote after vote, simply because the opposition has no means of forming a viable government, and I don't see anybody wanting a snap election at this point.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 05, 2019, 09:40:28 AM
Speaking of possible national unity government, the combined force of the Tory dissenders that had their whip withdrawn, Labour and Liberal Democrats posses only 284 votes, which is well short of the required majority of 326. Such a coalition would require additional votes from other groups, and this is where it becomes tricky. The SNP has a substantial numbers (35 MPs), but it's the party that's fundamentally opposed to preserving the Union, and thus a strange candidate. A "confidence and supply" could be a diffrent matter, though.

So, if we were to add remaining non-separatist, pro-European parties to the mix, we'll still have only 298 votes. There are also a few independents (discounting the Tory dissidents), but I dare not to weight on this here.

And there's another problem with the Tory dissidents: they're not really a monolithic group and some are already expressing interest to get back on as soon as possible.

At this point I think it's not impossible for Boris to hang on just like May had, despite losing a vote after vote, simply because the opposition has no means of forming a viable government, and I don't see anybody wanting a snap election at this point.

The SNP would have no problem supporting a national unity government and have made clear that thye'd be glad to do so (although they among the opposition parties would most prefer a new election). The conflict is over who would lead that government (Corbyn is not an acceptable choice to the LDs or the ex-Tories, and most Labourites would reject a non-Labour option), not who would join it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 05, 2019, 10:13:01 AM
(1) Boris could threaten to deny Royal Assent for the no-deal bill, until an election has been called, which Labour wont call until royal assent has been granted.  

Didn't know it works like this. So basically the Prime Minister can deny Royal Assent to a bill that was passed by the Commons?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 05, 2019, 10:18:42 AM
Speaking of possible national unity government, the combined force of the Tory dissenders that had their whip withdrawn, Labour and Liberal Democrats posses only 284 votes, which is well short of the required majority of 326. Such a coalition would require additional votes from other groups, and this is where it becomes tricky. The SNP has a substantial numbers (35 MPs), but it's the party that's fundamentally opposed to preserving the Union, and thus a strange candidate. A "confidence and supply" could be a diffrent matter, though.

So, if we were to add remaining non-separatist, pro-European parties to the mix, we'll still have only 298 votes. There are also a few independents (discounting the Tory dissidents), but I dare not to weight on this here.

And there's another problem with the Tory dissidents: they're not really a monolithic group and some are already expressing interest to get back on as soon as possible.

At this point I think it's not impossible for Boris to hang on just like May had, despite losing a vote after vote, simply because the opposition has no means of forming a viable government, and I don't see anybody wanting a snap election at this point.

The SNP would have no problem supporting a national unity government and have made clear that thye'd be glad to do so (although they among the opposition parties would most prefer a new election). The conflict is over who would lead that government (Corbyn is not an acceptable choice to the LDs or the ex-Tories, and most Labourites would reject a non-Labour option), not who would join it.

Thanks for clarifying on the SNP.

Also, I've heard Harriet Harman is being floated as a possible PM, which would satisfy the Labour and she'd be more acceptable to others as an elder stateswoman that doesn't hold any party leadership position.

I think that a national unity government with one of the party leaders as PM simply wouldn't work. It can be either a senior dissenting Tory, like Clarke (though I agree with Lumine chances doesn't seem to good), or an elder statesman from the opposition.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on September 05, 2019, 11:08:12 AM
i think it's fairly obvious who should lead a national unity government. Someone who can bring ORDAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA to this chaos.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 05, 2019, 12:09:39 PM
...what the Christ was that?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 05, 2019, 12:37:38 PM
Quote from: Michael Howard in the House of Lords, according to the Grauniad
This bill represents an attempt by the legislature to assume the mantle of government. That is why it is wrong. That is why it is illegitimate ...

Parliamentary supremacy? I don't know her.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 05, 2019, 02:28:43 PM

Chaos with Ed Milliband.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 05, 2019, 02:37:56 PM

What are you referring to?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 05, 2019, 02:43:10 PM
The BoJo press conference, which literally induced a policewoman to vomit.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Green Line on September 05, 2019, 03:01:20 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 05, 2019, 03:09:26 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Green Line on September 05, 2019, 03:12:31 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

Yes, but the people didn’t vote for a deal.  They voted on whether they wanted to leave or not.  No deal was always an option.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 05, 2019, 03:14:49 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

Yes, but the people didn’t vote for a deal.  They voted on whether they wanted to leave or not.  No deal was always an option.

So how is one "option" among many "the will of the people"? No deal is an option just as much as EFTA is. The government is blocking "the will of the people" by refusing to put forward a soft Brexit!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Green Line on September 05, 2019, 03:17:28 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

Yes, but the people didn’t vote for a deal.  They voted on whether they wanted to leave or not.  No deal was always an option.

So how is one "option" among many "the will of the people"? No deal is an option just as much as EFTA is. The government is blocking "the will of the people" by refusing to put forward a soft Brexit!

If you don’t think the people want no deal, let there be a general election on Oct 15.  I know who will win.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 05, 2019, 03:24:03 PM
There's absolutely no point in that sort of hysterical lapel-clutching here, so please desist.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Karpatsky on September 05, 2019, 03:26:34 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

Yes, but the people didn’t vote for a deal.  They voted on whether they wanted to leave or not.  No deal was always an option.

So how is one "option" among many "the will of the people"? No deal is an option just as much as EFTA is. The government is blocking "the will of the people" by refusing to put forward a soft Brexit!

If you don’t think the people want no deal, let there be a general election on Oct 15.  I know who will win.

That a party can win because of vote-splitting by its opposition has no bearing on measuring the 'will of the people' writ large. Polling suggests soft Brexit remains the plurality most popular option, and hard (no-deal) is less popular than Remain.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 05, 2019, 03:40:03 PM
Even Jo Johnson had enough of Boris.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 05, 2019, 05:20:58 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

Yes, but the people didn’t vote for a deal.  They voted on whether they wanted to leave or not.  No deal was always an option.

So how is one "option" among many "the will of the people"? No deal is an option just as much as EFTA is. The government is blocking "the will of the people" by refusing to put forward a soft Brexit!

If you don’t think the people want no deal, let there be a general election on Oct 15.  I know who will win.

That a party can win because of vote-splitting by its opposition has no bearing on measuring the 'will of the people' writ large. Polling suggests soft Brexit remains the plurality most popular option, and hard (no-deal) is less popular than Remain.

I resisted the conclusion of supporting muh second referendum for a long time, but at this point a second referendum would probably have more democratic legitimacy than a general election, since presumably in a second referendum one of the options would have to get to 50%+1 of the electorate.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: LabourJersey on September 05, 2019, 06:08:14 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

Yes, but the people didn’t vote for a deal.  They voted on whether they wanted to leave or not.  No deal was always an option.

So how is one "option" among many "the will of the people"? No deal is an option just as much as EFTA is. The government is blocking "the will of the people" by refusing to put forward a soft Brexit!

If you don’t think the people want no deal, let there be a general election on Oct 15.  I know who will win.

That a party can win because of vote-splitting by its opposition has no bearing on measuring the 'will of the people' writ large. Polling suggests soft Brexit remains the plurality most popular option, and hard (no-deal) is less popular than Remain.

I resisted the conclusion of supporting muh second referendum for a long time, but at this point a second referendum would probably have more democratic legitimacy than a general election, since presumably in a second referendum one of the options would have to get to 50%+1 of the electorate.

The problem with a referendum is it seems that you would have to be three options-- to remain in the EU, to accept May's Deal or to leave without a deal. That seems cumbersome at best, pointless at worst.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 05, 2019, 06:15:18 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

Yes, but the people didn’t vote for a deal.  They voted on whether they wanted to leave or not.  No deal was always an option.

So how is one "option" among many "the will of the people"? No deal is an option just as much as EFTA is. The government is blocking "the will of the people" by refusing to put forward a soft Brexit!

If you don’t think the people want no deal, let there be a general election on Oct 15.  I know who will win.

That a party can win because of vote-splitting by its opposition has no bearing on measuring the 'will of the people' writ large. Polling suggests soft Brexit remains the plurality most popular option, and hard (no-deal) is less popular than Remain.

I resisted the conclusion of supporting muh second referendum for a long time, but at this point a second referendum would probably have more democratic legitimacy than a general election, since presumably in a second referendum one of the options would have to get to 50%+1 of the electorate.

The problem with a referendum is it seems that you would have to be three options-- to remain in the EU, to accept May's Deal or to leave without a deal. That seems cumbersome at best, pointless at worst.
Just use STV.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: LabourJersey on September 05, 2019, 06:19:26 PM
What a disgrace.  A minority is holding hostage & completely paralyzing the government.  The UK needs serious constitutional reform if and when this ever ends.

So the government is holding itself hostage, since they're the ones in minority now.

NO.  The remain minority is now holding hostage a governement trying to implement the will of the people.  There's going to be a reckoning in the next election.

Since when was no deal, supported by 30% of the electorate in polling, "the will of the people"? Are you drunk?

Yes, but the people didn’t vote for a deal.  They voted on whether they wanted to leave or not.  No deal was always an option.

So how is one "option" among many "the will of the people"? No deal is an option just as much as EFTA is. The government is blocking "the will of the people" by refusing to put forward a soft Brexit!

If you don’t think the people want no deal, let there be a general election on Oct 15.  I know who will win.

That a party can win because of vote-splitting by its opposition has no bearing on measuring the 'will of the people' writ large. Polling suggests soft Brexit remains the plurality most popular option, and hard (no-deal) is less popular than Remain.

I resisted the conclusion of supporting muh second referendum for a long time, but at this point a second referendum would probably have more democratic legitimacy than a general election, since presumably in a second referendum one of the options would have to get to 50%+1 of the electorate.

The problem with a referendum is it seems that you would have to be three options-- to remain in the EU, to accept May's Deal or to leave without a deal. That seems cumbersome at best, pointless at worst.
Just use STV.

I doubt the Hard Brexiteers would accept the results of a referendum using rules they don't understand


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 05, 2019, 06:27:35 PM
(1) Boris could threaten to deny Royal Assent for the no-deal bill, until an election has been called, which Labour wont call until royal assent has been granted.  

Didn't know it works like this. So basically the Prime Minister can deny Royal Assent to a bill that was passed by the Commons?

Technically yes, provided the Queen follows his advice, just like porogation, but it would be a massive outrage (even bigger than porogation) and constitutional crisis. (Not that his supporters would care much)

But most other people would.

There has been a fair bit of comment that the UK simply staying in the EU without at least another referendum might be a cause of some serious social unrest. That may be a valid point (as said before, I am no #FBPEer) but it seems to me the dangers of imposing a no deal exit on the majority of people who don't want it (in many cases oppose it passionately, almost violently) are just as real. But hardly anybody talks about that for some reason.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 05, 2019, 07:56:30 PM
According to numerous sources, a Tory MP from Gunganshire Sir Nigel Binks, is about to propose a renewal of the Treachery Act of 1940 to deal with the rebel MPs.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 05, 2019, 09:36:05 PM
Why did the opposition reject Boris' compromise to delay Brexit and be dead in a ditch?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 05, 2019, 11:45:07 PM
Why did the opposition reject Boris' compromise to delay Brexit and be dead in a ditch?

Because Boris will be deader in the ditch when it's November and the UK is still in the EU.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 06, 2019, 12:03:21 AM
According to numerous sources, a Tory MP from Gunganshire Sir Nigel Binks, is about to propose a renewal of the Treachery Act of 1940 to deal with the rebel MPs.

He always was a duplicitous mofo.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 06, 2019, 12:40:07 AM
According to numerous sources, a Tory MP from Gunganshire Sir Nigel Binks, is about to propose a renewal of the Treachery Act of 1940 to deal with the rebel MPs.

He always was a duplicitous mofo.

I'm ashamed of how long it took me to realize this was a Star Wars reference.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 06, 2019, 07:41:27 AM


Is there any precedent for this?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 06, 2019, 07:41:59 AM
Not in the UK...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Mr. Illini on September 06, 2019, 07:48:17 AM


Is there any precedent for this?

There is nothing they won't pull to cause more dither and delay until the 31st of October so they can leave with their prized no deal


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR) on September 06, 2019, 08:24:59 AM
I have a cunning plan my Lord!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on September 06, 2019, 08:43:00 AM

Leaving Europe now apparently includes bringing German customs and politics to Britain...

Anyway it didn't work out too well for Schröder when he pulled this stunt as the opponent he hoped to beat in that snap election has been the chancellor for 14 years, but I'm sure mastermind BoJo will be more successful. ::)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on September 06, 2019, 09:47:10 AM

Leaving Europe now apparently includes bringing German customs and politics to Britain...

Anyway it didn't work out too well for Schröder when he pulled this stunt as the opponent he hoped to beat in that snap election has been the chancellor for 14 years, but I'm sure mastermind BoJo will be more successful. ::)

I doubt even BoJo could cause Corbyn to stay in power that long.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 06, 2019, 09:57:10 AM

Leaving Europe now apparently includes bringing German customs and politics to Britain...

Anyway it didn't work out too well for Schröder when he pulled this stunt as the opponent he hoped to beat in that snap election has been the chancellor for 14 years, but I'm sure mastermind BoJo will be more successful. ::)

I doubt even BoJo could cause Corbyn to stay in power that long.

Lol. Corbyn would be 84 after 14 years. Not sure even the most diehard fans would want to see him in office after that long.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 06, 2019, 10:13:50 AM
Lords has passed Benn's bill without amendment, meaning it goes straight for Royal Assent. Prorogation has officially backfired.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 06, 2019, 10:22:30 AM
Lords has passed Benn's bill without amendment, meaning it goes straight for Royal Assent. Prorogation has officially backfired.

Do you think Boris will pull a Blair move now? (i.e. advising the Queen not to give assent)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 06, 2019, 10:24:22 AM
Not without triggering an even bigger constitutional crisis... the bill was ruled not to require Queen's Consent and Royal Assent hasn't been refused since Queen Anne was on the throne.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 06, 2019, 10:41:52 AM
Not without triggering an even bigger constitutional crisis... the bill was ruled not to require Queen's Consent and Royal Assent hasn't been refused since Queen Anne was on the throne.

Yeah, I figured as much, I doubt the Queen would even follow his advice anyway.

Well, the best he can hope for is a no-confidence vote, on himself lol


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Hnv1 on September 06, 2019, 10:44:05 AM


Is there any precedent for this?
They can have a backbencher put it forward


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 06, 2019, 11:16:35 AM
Girly swot?!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 06, 2019, 11:20:16 AM

Are we surprised that this is the way he thinks?

Although tbh I recall some Labourites making comparable statements in the 2009-2010 era.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: AndyHogan14 on September 06, 2019, 11:32:59 AM


Is there any precedent for this?

Do they even have a majority for this? It seems to me that the Conservative Party + the DUP do not have a majority in parliament and if the opposition parties really wanted to, they could vote against the no confidence resolution and deny a majority for that as well. I think it is pretty clear that there is no way Johnson is getting an extension without an extension to Article 50.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 06, 2019, 11:35:38 AM


Is there any precedent for this?

Do they even have a majority for this? It seems to me that the Conservative Party + the DUP do not have a majority in parliament and if the opposition parties really wanted to, they could vote against the no confidence resolution and deny a majority for that as well. I think it is pretty clear that there is no way Johnson is getting an extension without an extension to Article 50.

It would be the absolute most Brexit-era British politics thing to happen if the government voted against itself and the opposition voted for it in a motion of no confidence.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: AndyHogan14 on September 06, 2019, 11:54:15 AM


Is there any precedent for this?

Do they even have a majority for this? It seems to me that the Conservative Party + the DUP do not have a majority in parliament and if the opposition parties really wanted to, they could vote against the no confidence resolution and deny a majority for that as well. I think it is pretty clear that there is no way Johnson is getting an extension without an extension to Article 50.

It would be the absolute most Brexit-era British politics thing to happen if the government voted against itself and the opposition voted for it in a motion of no confidence.

The world has indeed been turned upside down.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 06, 2019, 12:25:00 PM
Not without triggering an even bigger constitutional crisis... the bill was ruled not to require Queen's Consent and Royal Assent hasn't been refused since Queen Anne was on the throne.

Yeah, I figured as much, I doubt the Queen would even follow his advice anyway.

Well, the best he can hope for is a no-confidence vote, on himself lol

Here's an idea: if BoJo disregards the constitutional convention, the parliament should to the same by passing a bill of attainder and be done with him, in a very literal sense.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 06, 2019, 12:58:42 PM

Are we surprised that this is the way he thinks?

Although tbh I recall some Labourites making comparable statements in the 2009-2010 era.

I don't, do you have any actual sources?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 06, 2019, 02:55:26 PM

Are we surprised that this is the way he thinks?

Although tbh I recall some Labourites making comparable statements in the 2009-2010 era.

I don't, do you have any actual sources?

To be clear, I didn't mean politicians specifically (nor to make a "both sides do it" comment), just that Cameron being called "girly" or equivalents is not something new, including from the left/Labour supporters on occasion. The following is from a left-wing journalist in 2012, a description of him as having an "overdeveloped feminine side", for example:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/sep/09/catherine-bennett-david-cameron-women

Also a funny one (not from a British figure):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/8064541/Arnold-Schwarzenegger-tells-David-Cameron-Dont-be-an-economic-girlyman.html

This is a quick Google search; turning up old articles about off-hand comments that weren't really considered controversial at the time is difficult, of course.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 06, 2019, 03:00:19 PM
Catherine Bennett is "left wing", you say. Hmmm.......

(her recent partner - a certain John Humphrys - would certainly struggle to be described as such)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 06, 2019, 03:15:07 PM
Catherine Bennett is "left wing", you say. Hmmm.......

(her recent partner - a certain John Humphrys - would certainly struggle to be described as such)

Perhaps one shouldn't be judged by their choice of partners - but read through this series of bylines and tell me she's not a left-winger.

https://www.theguardian.com/profile/catherinebennett

Anyway, stupid argument. Unacceptable attitude for Johnson. He's the only one talking about David Cameron in 2019 regardless. And, while Cameron was certainly criticized in the past for being "girly" also by some political opponents, that doesn't make criticism today by other political opponents better.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 06, 2019, 03:42:37 PM


Is there any precedent for this?

There is nothing they won't pull to cause more dither and delay until the 31st of October so they can leave with their prized no deal

The opposition should pull a Di Maio/Zingaretti and take the opportunity to put forward their own government. It would of course only be a temporary and precarious arrangement, but it would allow the UK to get an extension from the EU and then hold an election that isn't on BoJo's terms.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 06, 2019, 04:26:24 PM


Is there any precedent for this?

There is nothing they won't pull to cause more dither and delay until the 31st of October so they can leave with their prized no deal

The opposition should pull a Di Maio/Zingaretti and take the opportunity to put forward their own government. It would of course only be a temporary and precarious arrangement, but it would allow the UK to get an extension from the EU and then hold an election that isn't on BoJo's terms.

no would they opposition agree to making Jeremy Corbyn PM. If the opposition doesnt want Johnson  to actually have the power to lead the nation through brexit then they should pass a motion of no confidence and  if they win the election they will still have time to call for an extension.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 06, 2019, 05:14:01 PM
()


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 06, 2019, 05:53:16 PM

Like the Black Rod he has the door slammed in his face by the Commissioners and must kiss the handle three times before they let him in.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 06, 2019, 06:53:12 PM


Is there any precedent for this?

There is nothing they won't pull to cause more dither and delay until the 31st of October so they can leave with their prized no deal

The opposition should pull a Di Maio/Zingaretti and take the opportunity to put forward their own government. It would of course only be a temporary and precarious arrangement, but it would allow the UK to get an extension from the EU and then hold an election that isn't on BoJo's terms.

no would they opposition agree to making Jeremy Corbyn PM. If the opposition doesnt want Johnson  to actually have the power to lead the nation through brexit then they should pass a motion of no confidence and  if they win the election they will still have time to call for an extension.

Thankfully, there are MPs other than Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 06, 2019, 07:05:35 PM

Is there any precedent for this?

There is nothing they won't pull to cause more dither and delay until the 31st of October so they can leave with their prized no deal

The opposition should pull a Di Maio/Zingaretti and take the opportunity to put forward their own government. It would of course only be a temporary and precarious arrangement, but it would allow the UK to get an extension from the EU and then hold an election that isn't on BoJo's terms.

no would they opposition agree to making Jeremy Corbyn PM. If the opposition doesnt want Johnson  to actually have the power to lead the nation through brexit then they should pass a motion of no confidence and  if they win the election they will still have time to call for an extension.

Thankfully, there are MPs other than Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.

Based on most American coverage of UK politics, this isn't at all obvious. ;)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 06, 2019, 09:33:08 PM
if they win the election they will still have time to call for an extension.

Except they won't. It's logistically and legally impossible to hold an election and have the new parliament convene before Oct 31.

And as Nathan said, the PM of such a caretaker government wouldn't be Corbyn. I don't understand why he'd even want to Ramsay McDonald himself into such a position.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 06, 2019, 10:33:09 PM
Quote from: Liz Saville Roberts, rendered into the Anglo-Saxon alliterative verse form by yours truly
Boris is broken. | We have an opportunity
To bring down Boris, | to break Boris,
And to bring down Brexit | --and we must take that.

Worthy of W.H. Auden tbh.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 06, 2019, 10:35:23 PM
if they win the election they will still have time to call for an extension.

Except they won't. It's logistically and legally impossible to hold an election and have the new parliament convene before Oct 31.

And as Nathan said, the PM of such a caretaker government wouldn't be Corbyn. I don't understand why he'd even want to Ramsay McDonald himself into such a position.

Would Kenneth Clarke be the most likely caretaker PM?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 07, 2019, 05:49:16 AM
if they win the election they will still have time to call for an extension.

Except they won't. It's logistically and legally impossible to hold an election and have the new parliament convene before Oct 31.

Though in this case the new PM (if there is one) would call for an extension, not parliament?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 07, 2019, 03:08:09 PM
I have full confidence in leadership abilities of Jacon Rees Mogg to get the goverment's agenda through the House.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 07, 2019, 03:18:30 PM
Amber Rudd has resigned from Cabinet and also resigned the Tory whip.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 07, 2019, 03:27:14 PM
Wow. Didn't expect Rudd to actually do something.

The government is going to become more and more powerless in the House.

(It seems she'll also be running again as an independent, though victory is impossible for her)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 07, 2019, 03:28:03 PM
Which makes the Government majority -43...

John Mann has announced he will not seek re-election as an MP due to his opposition to Corbyn.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 07, 2019, 03:54:39 PM
Is there a constituency-by-party map somewhere being updated daily on a regular basis?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 07, 2019, 03:55:32 PM
... and in less surprising defection news Angela Smith, MP for Penistone & Stocksbridge, formerly of Labour, then of Change UK, more recently one of "The Independents", has joined the Lib Dems.

I think this makes the composition of the House

Con 287 (+1 deputy speaker)
Lab 245 (+2 deputy speakers)
SNP 35
Lib Dem 17
DUP 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid 4
Green 1
Speaker 1
Independent 35

(Independent here includes "The Independents", now down to 3, and Frank Field, as I'm not sure what the status of his new party is.)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 07, 2019, 04:01:41 PM
Is there a constituency-by-party map somewhere being updated daily on a regular basis?

@ElectionMapsUK posts one on Twitter from time to time.  E.g.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1169553595420876802
but that's from before today's two, so Hastings & Rye should now be grey and Penistone & Stocksbridge gold.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 07, 2019, 04:20:02 PM
Can a person not watch Strictly Come Dancing in peace without another political bombshell?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 07, 2019, 04:50:58 PM
Which makes the Government majority -43...

John Mann has announced he will not seek re-election as an MP due to his opposition to Corbyn.

And has taken a government sinecure as its "anti-Semitism tsar".

(the irony of the latter term in this context has not been lost on a few)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jeron on September 08, 2019, 03:10:07 AM
Can a person not watch Strictly Come Dancing in peace without another political bombshell?

Why would any sane person want to watch Strictly come dancing?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 08, 2019, 05:42:34 AM
To quote one particularly distinguished parliamentarian from the past:

Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defil’d this sacred place, and turn’d the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Cassius on September 08, 2019, 06:23:45 AM
To quote one particularly distinguished parliamentarian from the past:

Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defil’d this sacred place, and turn’d the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors.

https://youtu.be/CwjFywjOKoY (https://youtu.be/CwjFywjOKoY)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 08, 2019, 11:26:05 AM
So in the last day or two we've got a couple of polls that look ok for the Tories, and a couple that look pretty bad. My own particular take is that anyone claiming to know what an election would look like (before or after October 31) is only lying to themselves.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 08, 2019, 02:31:59 PM
So in the last day or two we've got a couple of polls that look ok for the Tories, and a couple that look pretty bad. My own particular take is that anyone claiming to know what an election would look like (before or after October 31) is only lying to themselves.

Just ask Theresa May about triggering an election while the Tories are enjoying a big polling lead.  :)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 09, 2019, 06:07:27 AM



Prorogation of Parliament will start TONIGHT.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-johnson-meets-irish-pm-ahead-of-second-push-for-snap-general-election-11805412


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on September 09, 2019, 07:39:29 AM
Apparently the newest cunning plan by Cummings is that Johnson will send the letter required by Parliament seeking an extension to the European Council -- but he will also send another letter where he asks the Council to ignore the first letter and not grant an extension. In this way BoJo will follow the letter of the law but can still seek to stop an extension.

If that's not feasible I suppose Boris could privately request Orbán or some other leader to veto the extension without putting anything on paper.

Edit. One Tory MP tweeted this:



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 09, 2019, 07:42:51 AM
Legal opinion on a move like that is that wheeze would be illegal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2019, 07:43:06 AM
Apparently the newest cunning plan by Cummings is that Johnson will send the letter required by Parliament seeking an extension to the European Council -- but he will also send another letter where he asks the Council to ignore the first letter and not grant an extension. In this way BoJo will follow the letter of the law but can still seek to stop an extension.

I like it. Another variation is for Johnson to work with Hungary directly to have Hungary veto any extension. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 09, 2019, 07:49:04 AM
Hungary shows no signs of vetoing one, publicly or privately. France's views are qualified with "in the current circumstances".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2019, 07:53:59 AM
Hungary's already on fairly unstable ground with the rest of the EU - dunno why Orban would want to play the martyr and sour relations even further just to help Boris.

Also, I'm wondering - if parliament is prorogued as of tomorrow - how do any of the mooted ideas like amending the FTPA or a vote of no confidence even occur?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 09, 2019, 08:04:40 AM
In October.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2019, 08:10:49 AM
Which would rule out a pre-31s election, no? Given the minimum 25 day campaign period? In which case it kind of looks like Boris has played himself


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 09, 2019, 08:12:19 AM
Indeed...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 09, 2019, 08:40:34 AM
I doubt very much that one EU country is going to go gung-ho vetoing an extension against the will of the other 26. If there is a denial of extension it will be with the consensus of all Members. EU members are very, very reluctant to unilaterally use their veto in these matters - they know that if they do so they themselves will be at the receiving end of the veto at some point.

De Facto there will now be negotiations between France (and its supporters namely ES), who do not want an extension without significant progress on the British side, and Germany (and its Supporters like NL, BE) who desperately want an extension because of the pressure from Business. They will decide on a compromise, and because the Latter Bloc is the more powerful one in Europe, an extension will almost certainly be given, with some conditions attached.

Spain?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 09, 2019, 09:44:22 AM
John Bercow, the HoC Speaker, is to stand down (as an MP also) by the end of the year.

(in other words at the next GE assuming, as is now very likely, there is one before then)

When taking over in summer 2009, he said he would not do more than a decade.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 09, 2019, 09:48:33 AM
To rapturous applause from the opposition.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Devout Centrist on September 09, 2019, 10:36:29 AM
I think the most likely outcome is that Boris simply chooses to ignore the Benn Act. This is blatantly illegal, of course, but would anything really happen to him?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 09, 2019, 10:43:19 AM
Quite possibly. Considering he has no majority now.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 09, 2019, 10:53:33 AM
The point is, just ignoring it would be *illegal*.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on September 09, 2019, 11:10:56 AM
Some Tory MP is just now shouting "You're a bully!" to Bercow.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 09, 2019, 11:17:36 AM
Some Tory MP is just now shouting "You're a bully!" to Bercow.

Sounds like Bercow needs to restore ORRRDDEER.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 09, 2019, 12:08:12 PM
John Bercow, the HoC Speaker, is to stand down (as an MP also) by the end of the year.

(in other words at the next GE assuming, as is now very likely, there is one before then)

When taking over in summer 2009, he said he would not do more than a decade.

Nooooooooooooooooooo :'( :'( :'(


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 09, 2019, 12:10:07 PM
After he stoods down, we must ask John Bercow to become a moderator on the Atlas.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 09, 2019, 12:35:59 PM
I think the most likely outcome is that Boris simply chooses to ignore the Benn Act. This is blatantly illegal, of course, but would anything really happen to him?

He could be impeached from office by a vote of parliament, expelled from parliament, and/or have a vote of no confidence passed against his government.

Also, if Johnson (or anyone, really) violated the Benn Act they could face up to 15 years in prison and be liable for civil penalties for any damages incurred as a result of their crime. Civil penalties could also apply to anyone found to have conspired to aid Johnson in his violation of the law - that includes MPs and special advisers working in Downing Street.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Devout Centrist on September 09, 2019, 12:44:57 PM
I think the most likely outcome is that Boris simply chooses to ignore the Benn Act. This is blatantly illegal, of course, but would anything really happen to him?

He could be impeached from office by a vote of parliament, expelled from parliament, and/or have a vote of no confidence passed against his government.

Also, if Johnson (or anyone, really) violated the Benn Act they could face up to 15 years in prison and be liable for civil penalties for any damages incurred as a result of their crime. Civil penalties could also apply to anyone found to have conspired to aid Johnson in his violation of the law - that includes MPs and special advisers working in Downing Street.
Oh I'm aware that there are potential consequences for Johnson's inaction. My concern is, will those consequences materialize?

I suppose were Johnson to ignore the Benn Act, the opposition would call a vote of no confidence. But could they form a government in time? You'd think that the terrible prospect of a 'no deal' Brexit would bring them together, but I have my doubts.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2019, 12:48:37 PM
My concern is, will those consequences materialize?

If this all amounted to active law-breaking, then, yes. The British political system has its problems, but a lack of a strong State/government distinction is not one of them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 09, 2019, 01:22:28 PM
My concern is, will those consequences materialize?

If this all amounted to active law-breaking, then, yes. The British political system has its problems, but a lack of a strong State/government distinction is not one of them.

Agreed. Don't get me wrong it would be the ugliest parliamentary confrontation, arguably constitutional crisis, since Home Rule in 1914 - and this time without a World War to intervene and stop it (well, I hope!) - but Johnson would be unable to sustain a government if he was literally under arrest. Even most pro-No Deal MPs in the Tory Party won't stand for deliberately breaking the law, especially when they could be considered accessories to it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Devout Centrist on September 09, 2019, 01:30:54 PM
My concern is, will those consequences materialize?

If this all amounted to active law-breaking, then, yes. The British political system has its problems, but a lack of a strong State/government distinction is not one of them.
Fair enough. Are there any other tactics that Johnson is exploring?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 09, 2019, 01:36:33 PM
Another Grieve motion just passed, ordering a number of prominent government officials and advisers (including invincible masterful strategist Dominic Cummings) to disclose to the House "all correspondence and other communications" since July 23rd regarding the Prorogation, and ordering ministers to publish government documents regarding Operation Yellowhammer (No-Deal preparations) submitted to the Cabinet.

The government is most unwilling to comply despite the motion meaning the Queen will formally make the request, which should be interesting to watch.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 09, 2019, 01:37:55 PM
311-302. That's five defeats.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 09, 2019, 01:54:18 PM
The hell is the Government doing?

Corbyn put a motion regarding the rule of law and whether the Government would abide by the Benn bill, and no one on the frontbench rose to officially respond. Peter Bone (!) is responding for the government because - literally - no minister would.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 09, 2019, 02:17:47 PM
The hell is the Government doing?

Corbyn put a motion regarding the rule of law and whether the Government would abide by the Benn bill, and no one on the frontbench rose to officially respond. Peter Bone (!) is responding for the government because - literally - no minister would.

Is that his porn name?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pandaguineapig on September 09, 2019, 02:43:45 PM
Looks like the Hobbit in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 09, 2019, 03:39:20 PM
Looks like the midget in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election

The speaker's seat generally goes uncontested, at least by the major parties. I guess the Brexit party would contest it, but there's no way Bercow would have lost his seat if he went for reelection

Also, fun fact: Buckingham voted remain. Not by a particularly large margin (48% Leave), but voted remain nontheless.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pandaguineapig on September 09, 2019, 04:02:51 PM
Looks like the midget in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election

The speaker's seat generally goes uncontested, at least by the major parties. I guess the Brexit party would contest it, but there's no way Bercow would have lost his seat if he went for reelection

Also, fun fact: Buckingham voted remain. Not by a particularly large margin (48% Leave), but voted remain nontheless.
The Tories announced that they would challenge him for breaking his neutrality. His seat is a remain marginal but it is ancestrally Tory


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 09, 2019, 04:09:25 PM
Looks like the midget in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election

The speaker's seat generally goes uncontested, at least by the major parties. I guess the Brexit party would contest it, but there's no way Bercow would have lost his seat if he went for reelection

Also, fun fact: Buckingham voted remain. Not by a particularly large margin (48% Leave), but voted remain nontheless.
The Tories announced that they would challenge him for breaking his neutrality. His seat is a remain marginal but it is ancestrally Tory

Even so, it's easy to see Bercow holding on to the seat running as speaker. It's an ancestrally Tory seat, but they would lose a bit of their vote to the Brexit party, while the opposition would be unified (no remain party would contest it; not Labour, not the LDs, not the Greens).

It would be close, but I imagine Bercow wins with a percentage in the 40s. Of course, with Bercow out it's now safe Tory.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2019, 04:34:00 PM
It seems LDEM will take the position of revoking Article 50. If so then there will be no LAB-LDEM remain alliance in the upcoming election.  Question is will these be a de facto if not de jure CON-BXP leave alliance. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Conservatopia on September 09, 2019, 04:49:15 PM
Wow. Did anyone see Ian Austin?  He's been wanting to get that off his chest for a long time...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 09, 2019, 05:44:45 PM
Looks like the Hobbit in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election

I'll give you C- for the effort.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 09, 2019, 05:56:08 PM
I think the most likely outcome is that Boris simply chooses to ignore the Benn Act. This is blatantly illegal, of course, but would anything really happen to him?

He could be impeached from office by a vote of parliament, expelled from parliament, and/or have a vote of no confidence passed against his government.

Also, if Johnson (or anyone, really) violated the Benn Act they could face up to 15 years in prison and be liable for civil penalties for any damages incurred as a result of their crime. Civil penalties could also apply to anyone found to have conspired to aid Johnson in his violation of the law - that includes MPs and special advisers working in Downing Street.
Oh I'm aware that there are potential consequences for Johnson's inaction. My concern is, will those consequences materialize?

I suppose were Johnson to ignore the Benn Act, the opposition would call a vote of no confidence. But could they form a government in time? You'd think that the terrible prospect of a 'no deal' Brexit would bring them together, but I have my doubts.

We don't have a Presidential system. The Prime Minister is just an ordinary government employee and therefore has no legal immunity beyond certain protections from prosecution for libel while debating in the Commons chamber. Were Johnson to break the law he would be prosecuted and (potentially) imprisoned the same as any other private citizen would be, and if this happens I think it would be possible that the Queen would be obliged to remove him as PM without a vote of no confidence needed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 09, 2019, 06:01:44 PM
Wow. Did anyone see Ian Austin?  He's been wanting to get that off his chest for a long time...

His hopefully Danczukian result as an Independent at the coming GE will be highly pleasant.

An exceptionally unpleasant person, according to almost everybody who has dealt with him.

(too toxic for the ChUKkers, say no more)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 09, 2019, 06:13:23 PM
We don't have a Presidential system. The Prime Minister is just an ordinary government employee and therefore has no legal immunity beyond certain protections from prosecution for libel while debating in the Commons chamber. Were Johnson to break the law he would be prosecuted and (potentially) imprisoned the same as any other private citizen would be, and if this happens I think it would be possible that the Queen would be obliged to remove him as PM without a vote of no confidence needed.

It's quite paradoxical, since in many ways the PM is more powerful than the U.S. President, since she or he not only heads the government (executive), but also runs the legislative process via being a party leader. Not always, as we've seen now,


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gass3268 on September 09, 2019, 06:37:13 PM

Six now



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 09, 2019, 06:41:12 PM
He got less votes for an election than he did last time as well.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 09, 2019, 06:54:49 PM
After he stoods down, we must ask John Bercow to become a moderator on the Atlas.

ORDAH!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Hollywood on September 09, 2019, 07:22:10 PM
These Parliamentary debates are more entertaining than anything on television and streaming services right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEej5VdPEkI


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 09, 2019, 07:23:33 PM
Just to think past PMs were resigning after losing far more trivial votes. I mean Rosebery stepped down after the government lost a vote in committee on army supply by seven votes.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: LabourJersey on September 09, 2019, 07:38:58 PM
Just to think past PMs were resigning after losing far more trivial votes. I mean Rosebery stepped down after the government lost a vote in committee on army supply by seven votes.

Yes, but those Prime Ministers had a sense of dignity and a sense of shame that Boris lacks


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 10, 2019, 01:00:37 AM
After he stoods down, we must ask John Bercow to become a moderator on the Atlas.

No reason to ruin his reputation.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Coastal Elitist on September 10, 2019, 01:25:21 AM
I just hope Brexit doesn't ruin my vacation next week. Are the protests over?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 10, 2019, 01:50:36 AM
Looks like the Hobbit in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election

I'll give you C- for the effort.
All I'm saying is that Bercow's behavior is perfectly explained when you realize that he's 5 foot 5

Ah a second quip about his height from yourself; and of course a snarky comment won't change the fact that he's been absolutely crucial in allowing MPs to do their jobs, and in helping parliament to stop the complete chaos of no-deal.

It just makes you look like a bit of a tosser really.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: morgieb on September 10, 2019, 02:09:34 AM
So confirmed wife-beater and racist Geoff Boycott is now a knight. What a farce.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 10, 2019, 05:29:11 AM
So confirmed wife-beater and racist Geoff Boycott is now a knight. What a farce.

Politically he is indeed hard right, but the McKinstry biography is well worth reading re his criminal conviction. Almost everybody who knows him believes he was "set up".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 10, 2019, 05:35:09 AM
Different scenarios from ComRes this weekend

()

It is interesting that it seems Johnson is better off going for No Deal Exit than delay with the obvious risk of him going to jail.  What is also interesting is that BXP->CON vote share is almost as great as No Deal Exit with a Brexit with a deal.  It could be the BXP voters are imagining a deal where EU backs down and not an adjusted version of the May Deal.   


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 10, 2019, 06:00:08 AM
Predictive polling like this is ridiculously unreliable. Even if the consequences of a no deal fall short of the worst predictions, the idea the Tories would win a landslide in the aftermath is laughable.

(there is also the very real possibility that even if BoJo refuses point blank to extend A50 - indeed goes to jail for it - it will still happen anyway, one way or another)

And your last point is also correct - any last minute "deal" before Oct 31 will be similar if not the same as May's, the government are making no serious effort to negotiate anything different. Farage and his party will denounce that to the heavens if it happens. As will several Tory MPs.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Person Man on September 10, 2019, 10:39:11 AM
FTPA might also complicate things: under the circumstances it would be quite politically legitimate for Labour and the other opposition parties to argue 'yes to an election soon, but not right now'.

We were Brexit. You got Brexit. That's it. Right?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Person Man on September 10, 2019, 01:01:04 PM
Different scenarios from ComRes this weekend

()

It is interesting that it seems Johnson is better off going for No Deal Exit than delay with the obvious risk of him going to jail.  What is also interesting is that BXP->CON vote share is almost as great as No Deal Exit with a Brexit with a deal.  It could be the BXP voters are imagining a deal where EU backs down and not an adjusted version of the May Deal.    

At this rate, the next government will probably be a LD-Lab government as strange as that sounds.  Normally, the could just form a coalition that probably looks like a generic US Democratic Party but not sure how that would happen under Corbyn. Then again, the Republicans have Trump and the Tories have Johnson so we go into this knowing stranger things have happened.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 10, 2019, 01:44:05 PM
Lib-Lab won't happen. It will be Lab-SNP.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Person Man on September 10, 2019, 02:32:42 PM

Think they will have enough votes?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 10, 2019, 02:47:01 PM

SNP will almost certainly have more MPs than the LDs at the next election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Mr. Illini on September 10, 2019, 10:58:14 PM

The more we get to hear from Ian Blackford the better.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 11, 2019, 12:02:49 AM
Either way, it seems pretty obvious that the path back into government for Labour runs through Scotland.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 11, 2019, 03:47:48 AM

The less we get to hear from Ian Blackford the better.

FTFY


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 11, 2019, 04:35:11 AM
Scottish appeal court rules prorogation of parliament unlawful:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/scottish-judges-rule-boris-johnsons-prorogation-unlawful


Consitutional crisis incoming?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 11, 2019, 04:38:57 AM






Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Beezer on September 11, 2019, 04:46:39 AM
"Rebellious Scots to crush..."


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 11, 2019, 05:02:50 AM
Labour and SNP demand an immediate recall of parliament, the government has issued a short statement that they're gonna appeal the decision in the supreme court.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 11, 2019, 05:55:59 AM
Fair to say that this was not expected, and the judgement is damning indeed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 11, 2019, 06:13:51 AM
Yep, first time a PM has been legally ruled to have misled the monarch. In the old days, you'd lose your head for that sort of thing...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 11, 2019, 06:41:43 AM
Government seems split on whether to question the judges' impartiality.







Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 11, 2019, 06:47:56 AM
So. Much. Winning.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 11, 2019, 08:11:18 AM
Don't get your hopes up people, the verdict is not really objective by any means.

He obviously had the right to prorogue it (not that I agree with it), so this is totally uncalled for, and just adds fuel to the smelly fire British Politics has become.

Plus, this doesn't change a single thing Brexit-wise, as the no-deal Law was already passed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2019, 08:37:45 AM
Ah, an expert in British Constitutional Law are we?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 11, 2019, 09:25:53 AM
Boris Johnson's solution to the backstop issue: Building a bridge from Northern Ireland to Scotland.

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-johnson-considering-building-bridge-between-scotland-and-northern-ireland


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 11, 2019, 09:39:47 AM
Ah, an expert in British Constitutional Law are we?

No, but I don't see a single reason he would have no right to prorogue when every other Prime Minister had such rights.

If anyone else does, feel free to point out some precedent.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: IceAgeComing on September 11, 2019, 10:02:33 AM
Don't get your hopes up people, the verdict is not really objective by any means.

He obviously had the right to prorogue it (not that I agree with it), so this is totally uncalled for, and just adds fuel to the smelly fire British Politics has become.

Plus, this doesn't change a single thing Brexit-wise, as the no-deal Law was already passed.

The Court of Session is very conservative (small-c) which is why no one really expected this decision.  The judges in question aren't exactly mavericks doing things that they believe over anything else: they'd have not made it to the Court of Session if they did.

To my admittedly rather limited understanding and from what I've read: its a decision that makes sense when you consider the unique differences with Scots law and English law - especially when it comes to constitutional law.  The main thing that we've seen here is that the High Court in London ruled that it wasn't for the courts to determine whether or not a prorogation was justified: the Court of Session in Edinburgh ruled that it was for them to decide and that it wasn't.  This is broadly in line with the general differences between Scots and English law - the big example is that Parliamentary Supremecy is absolute in England and isn't in Scotland; which is believed gives the courts more of a say into constitutional matters - the traditional example is that its believed that Parliament can't amend the Act of Union 1707 to eliminate Scots Law or to fiddle with the rights of the Church of Scotland or whatever since in Scots Law parliament isn't entirely supreme over key elements of the constitution.  None of this has been tested in the courts and I guess that this is the first time that we'll see what happens.

Both cases are being examined on Tuesday - key thing to remember though is that although they deal with the same matter because one was filed in England and the other in Scotland they can't just be rolled together: and since a key element of the constitution is that Scots and English law are equal the Cherry case will be considered using Scots law which means that the Court may well find standing in that case and not in the other one.  I'm not entirely sure what happens if its found to be lawful in English law and unlawful in Scots law and I don't think anyone does - my hunch would be that its a case of if its unlawful anywhere then its unlawful across the UK so prorogation would end but we'll see.

Its more the things that the court said about the decision as well: they basically accused the government of lying to the Palace to get the Queen to do something and that puts the Palace in an awkward spot for obvious reasons: and that's the sort of thing that ordinarily would be a resignation offense but not with this government that doesn't care about thinking things like ethics.

That's about as clear as I can make it - its a fluid, confusing issue with very little precedent.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 11, 2019, 10:59:55 AM
"Fluid, confusing issue with very little precedent" is Brexit to a tee.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 11, 2019, 11:12:43 AM
For me, 'British Constitutional Law' evokes an image of a team of dusty scholars rummaging through a pile of ancient Post It notes.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on September 11, 2019, 12:49:03 PM
For me, 'British Constitutional Law' evokes an image of a team of dusty scholars rummaging through a pile of ancient Post It notes.

No, not that one either, that's the gong scourer duty list from 1732.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Free North on September 11, 2019, 07:13:25 PM
In some strange irony, perhaps the worst thing to happen to the eurosceptic movement in a generation was the UK voting to leave 3 years ago.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on September 12, 2019, 02:09:33 PM
If the opposition rams through a second referendum with the options of "Remain" and "May's Deal" before the election the brexiters could just boycott the referendum. "Remain" would then win with a 99% share and the referendum would have as much legitimacy as the Northern Ireland referendum of 1973 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Northern_Ireland_border_poll) where the unionists won with 99%.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Person Man on September 12, 2019, 02:24:52 PM
If the opposition rams through a second referendum with the options of "Remain" and "May's Deal" before the election the brexiters could just boycott the referendum. "Remain" would then win with a 99% share and the referendum would have as much legitimacy as the Northern Ireland referendum of 1973 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Northern_Ireland_border_poll) where the unionists won with 99%.

They should have "Revoke Article 50", "Bypass Parliament and Agree to the currently agreed on negotiated separation", and "Leave and Default".

If no one option gets 50%, they should then have third referendum with the top two choices unless parliament passes one of the top two choices.

What do you think would happen in that case?

Personally, I think there should have been a second referendum on ratifying the deal once it was struck.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 12, 2019, 03:52:14 PM
If the opposition rams through a second referendum with the options of "Remain" and "May's Deal" before the election the brexiters could just boycott the referendum. "Remain" would then win with a 99% share and the referendum would have as much legitimacy as the Northern Ireland referendum of 1973 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Northern_Ireland_border_poll) where the unionists won with 99%.

Polls fairly consistently show that hardcore support for leaving without a deal (in other words, those who will settle for *only* that and see anything else as treachery) is around the 20% mark.

A fair number of even those voters might support a deal to exit were it made clear that was the only chance they were going to get of Brexit for maybe a few decades. Its all about framing.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on September 12, 2019, 05:47:24 PM
In some strange irony, perhaps the worst thing to happen to the eurosceptic movement in a generation was the UK voting to leave 3 years ago.

It was always going to take one member to be made an example of for the rest of the eurosceptic movements to be put off by the whole process.

The sad thing is Britain, despite its difficulties, its reluctance, its rebate, was a pretty invaluable member of the Union as it was a rule follower better than most (hence why it was so tough on accepting certain rules), a fierce defender of the Single Market of equals against FrancoGerman corporatism and as a foreign policy and military power could have led the EU's new competences. I question the added value of Italy, Greece or Hungary, but make no mistake, the UK leaving is a massive blow to the EU, and a massive failure of the EU.  

I imagine a lot of euroscpetics would have much rather seen France fall first because they would have tried to renegotiate the Treaties accordingly.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 12, 2019, 08:26:49 PM
This isn't in response to any specific event, but I was just thinking the other day about what a long, strange trip the past ten years or so have been for the Liberal Democrats as a party. From a proto-#woke third party with a left-of-Labour image among many, to serious contenders in the 2010 election, to arch-austericrat Tory lapdogs, to a discredited rump skirting dangerously close to joke party status, to their resurrection as the party of choice for committed Europeanists across the left-right spectrum. I'd never vote for the Lib Dems if I were British (except perhaps tactically if I lived in a West Country marginal or something), but as an outside observer, I find myself becoming oddly invested in their constantly shifting fortunes.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 12, 2019, 10:18:03 PM
A slight worry with a second referendum is if Remain wins but gets less than 17.4 million votes that Leave got in 2016-idk how plausible that is but maybe possible if turnout is low for the referendum (even if Remain's percentage ends up higher than Leave's), this could lead to further division about which referendum is legitimate.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Coldstream on September 13, 2019, 10:32:27 AM
A slight worry with a second referendum is if Remain wins but gets less than 17.4 million votes that Leave got in 2016-idk how plausible that is but maybe possible if turnout is low for the referendum (even if Remain's percentage ends up higher than Leave's), this could lead to further division about which referendum is legitimate.

Right now I’d bet on that as the most likely outcome.

Second referendum on lower turnout (not drastically lower and I doubt there’d be a mass boycott) but say around 65-70% rather than 80%. Remain wins by a larger margin (say 54-46) but with far fewer votes (say around 14-15 million).

So no one is satisfied, and you end up with a bomb throwing nihilist contingent in Parliament that’s even more aggrieved such as Cash, Francois, Jenkin etc who probably join up with Farage and lead to something of a realignment on the right of British politics.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 13, 2019, 02:26:56 PM
The last referendum turnout was a bit short of 75% IIRC, never mind 80%.

(which still made it the biggest electoral event in the UK since the 1992 GE tbf)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 13, 2019, 04:40:43 PM
Well yes even if Remain won 20 million votes the usual suspects would denounce it, and be outraged by it because there is an entire industry in outraged euroscepticism- hence why people like Bill Cash didn't vote for the deal because he couldn't bare to stop talking about how the deal was a betrayal.

The reality is that Brexit has become a cultural flash point, and whatever the result is it will significantly piss of a large segement of the political class, and the wider public.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 14, 2019, 02:05:37 PM
Sam Gyimah, one of the "Tory 21" group of MPs, has defected to the LibDems.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on September 14, 2019, 02:36:21 PM
No wonder Corbyn's scared of an election.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 14, 2019, 05:35:47 PM
He wants an election on his terms, not Cummings/Johnson's.

Perfectly reasonable, and any other opposition leader worth their salt would do the same.

That poll has Tories and BxP on half the vote - *much* too high.

Another out tonight is pretty much neck and neck.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 14, 2019, 05:46:24 PM
Boris Johnson should have had someone in his party bring up a no confidence motion in himself to have the election happen.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 14, 2019, 09:19:33 PM
Boris Johnson should have had someone in his party bring up a no confidence motion in himself to have the election happen.

The rebel alliance could have just voted for confidence in Johnson to forestall that. Which would have been Peak Brexit Era, obviously, but there was a brief shining moment last weekend when people (or, at any rate, Grauniad livebloggers) were seriously discussing the possibility.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Devout Centrist on September 15, 2019, 12:45:00 AM
I rather agree. It would be nice to see the Tories blow another double digit polling lead.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 15, 2019, 01:41:11 AM
Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 15, 2019, 02:22:42 AM
Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?

because risking the country to a UK Hugo Chavez would be far far worse than Hard Brexit. Before you scoff at the comparision, here:



https://www.cnsnews.com/video/flashback-corbyn-calls-hugo-chavez-absolute-legend-every-way

https://labourlist.org/2013/03/thank-you-hugo-chavez/


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 15, 2019, 02:27:27 AM
Guys; a Comres poll came out last night with the Tories on 28, and Labour on 27

The lesson of 2017 wasn't that a large poll lead can collapse; but mainly that polling in British General Elections is erratic, and unpredictable.

Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?

because risking the country to a UK Hugo Chavez would be far far worse than Hard Brexit

Have you read operation Yellowhammer? Why do you keep polluting this thread with your hilariously woeful 'takes'.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 15, 2019, 02:29:49 AM
Guys; a Comres poll came out last night with the Tories on 28, and Labour on 27

The lesson of 2017 wasn't that a large poll lead can collapse; but mainly that polling in British General Elections is erratic, and unpredictable.

Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?

because risking the country to a UK Hugo Chavez would be far far worse than Hard Brexit

Have you read operation Yellowhammer? Why do you keep polluting this thread with your hilariously woeful 'takes'.

Chavez 2.0 is still worse


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on September 15, 2019, 04:08:19 AM
Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?

because risking the country to a UK Hugo Chavez would be far far worse than Hard Brexit. Before you scoff at the comparision, here:



https://www.cnsnews.com/video/flashback-corbyn-calls-hugo-chavez-absolute-legend-every-way

https://labourlist.org/2013/03/thank-you-hugo-

^ Please stop posting in this thread.  You’re embarrassing the rest of us Americans.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 15, 2019, 08:03:20 AM
Lots of people on the left gave at least qualified support to Chavez, yes.

So what?

You are aware of the circumstances in which he came to power, right. And its also at least debatable how much he can be held responsible for what happened after he died (and his successor happening to be insane, come to that)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 15, 2019, 08:28:44 AM
Thought as far as the Chavez analogy goes - I'd point out the unelected incumbent PM has (probably illegally) suspended the elected parliament; and is now claiming that he will break the law in order to pursue an ideological policy agenda that will lead to an economic collapse and shortages of things like medicine and food


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 15, 2019, 10:09:13 AM
Guys; a Comres poll came out last night with the Tories on 28, and Labour on 27

The lesson of 2017 wasn't that a large poll lead can collapse; but mainly that polling in British General Elections is erratic, and unpredictable.

Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?

because risking the country to a UK Hugo Chavez would be far far worse than Hard Brexit

Have you read operation Yellowhammer? Why do you keep polluting this thread with your hilariously woeful 'takes'.

Chavez 2.0 is still worse

I'm torn between copying and pasting sections of Yellowhammer, and asking how on earth a Corbyn Government would lead to fuel shortages, a lack of fresh food, and poisonous water but you're either posting here in bad faith or just unable to do any form of intellectual thought that I'm not going to bother, and ask you follow JoeRepublic's advice.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 15, 2019, 11:11:16 AM
The real concern about Corbyn is possible capital flight, but as he's very unlikely to win a majority and will rely on Lib Dem and/or SNP support, Citibank now think that would be better for the UK than a No Deal Brexit.

(The Telegraph story is behind a paywall, so I won't like it here)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Sestak on September 15, 2019, 12:23:52 PM
something something anyone left of Marco rubio is Venezuela


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 15, 2019, 12:49:40 PM
The real concern about Corbyn is possible capital flight...

No. The real concern about Corbyn is the possibility that he might well be how one says 'Francois Hollande' in English.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 15, 2019, 01:20:27 PM
something something anyone left of Marco rubio is Venezuela


Corbyn was openly a supporter of Chavez as late as 2013 .




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on September 15, 2019, 02:03:01 PM
The real concern about Corbyn is possible capital flight...

No. The real concern about Corbyn is the possibility that he might well be how one says 'Francois Hollande' in English.

He already is that, before becoming PM.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: NOVA Green on September 16, 2019, 12:21:22 AM
The only Silver Lining from the current insanity within the UK, will be that we will finally see Ireland "A Nation Once Again" including the Six Occupied Counties of the North.

Scotland will leave and join in a trading alliance with Ireland....

Maybe.... maybe Wales might follow (Along with Ireland the land of my Fathers)....

I won't even mention splits from the NE of England proper....

I totally get the resistance against Neo-Liberalism Capitalism from the Project of a "New Europe"....

Without any real political left to actually talk about the experiences of the British Working Classes over the past 40 Years, where Tony Blair somehow becomes a "Left Wing Pundit PM" while he flushes the interests of the British Working Class down the toilet....

British squadidies once against fought and died in Iraq and Afghanistan, just like they did before...

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/us/dictionary/english/squaddie

Do they owe us a living?   ---- of course they effing do....

Crass----

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Srkm5oWFwiQ

Subhumans--- Cradle to the Grave

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jy5FMfTqf5k


The Urban Ghettos of the UK can will likely explode as they did in the '80s in places like Briston and Liverpool, and Council Estates across the Nation within the era of Brext.

Now we have the myth of the "Polish Plumbers" that are "stealing our jobs", instead of Blacks ans Asians, but it is still an ugly mess.

Was just at a Sci-Fi convention, where a leading British actor talked about growing up in Salford...

This was a community in one of the worst Housing estates in England, that would be essentially equivalent to some of the worst housing projects in the United States.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salford

youtube.com/watch?v=twnPosztKys&t=928s

Tories, Liberal Dems, and Labour have abandoned these communities, just as have Democrats and Republicans within the United States....

Where are political leaders in the UK that will actually challenge and take action, where the people of the North have no faith when it comes to politicians in the South on core issues?



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 16, 2019, 07:24:59 AM
The real concern about Corbyn is possible capital flight...

No. The real concern about Corbyn is the possibility that he might well be how one says 'Francois Hollande' in English.

damn you think he'll bang top celebrities in Downing Street?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Serenity Now on September 16, 2019, 09:02:26 AM
The real concern about Corbyn is possible capital flight...

No. The real concern about Corbyn is the possibility that he might well be how one says 'Francois Hollande' in English.

As in the risk that he'll fail to deliver and electoral politics will reconfigure along similar lines to the ideologies of En Marche and the Front National/National Rally ie liberalism vs (ethno) nationalism? It is a worry (so much so I'd prefer you meant what CrabCake said).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 16, 2019, 09:34:21 AM
He's not exactly delivered in opposition...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 16, 2019, 10:19:49 AM
The real concern about Corbyn is possible capital flight...

No. The real concern about Corbyn is the possibility that he might well be how one says 'Francois Hollande' in English.

As in the risk that he'll fail to deliver and electoral politics will reconfigure along similar lines to the ideologies of En Marche and the Front National/National Rally ie liberalism vs (ethno) nationalism? It is a worry (so much so I'd prefer you meant what CrabCake said).

Whatever else you say about him, I don't think he is the sort to run away from the slightest murmurs of opposition in the way Flanby did. Admittedly, there is more to "delivering" that just that however.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 16, 2019, 11:11:07 AM
Today's talks between Jean-Claude Juncker and Boris Johnson in Luxembourg apparently didn't go well. Afterwards, Johnson decided to skip a joint press conference with Luxembourg's prime minister.



()


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 16, 2019, 04:02:17 PM
Uhh, I’m sorry, with everything that’s been happening, how the f**k are the Tories actually gaining in the polls?

because risking the country to a UK Hugo Chavez would be far far worse than Hard Brexit. Before you scoff at the comparision, here:



https://www.cnsnews.com/video/flashback-corbyn-calls-hugo-chavez-absolute-legend-every-way

https://labourlist.org/2013/03/thank-you-hugo-

^ Please stop posting in this thread.  You’re embarrassing the rest of us Americans.

Yes, let's restore some previous quality to this thread.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 17, 2019, 12:55:46 AM
Today's talks between Jean-Claude Juncker and Boris Johnson in Luxembourg apparently didn't go well. Afterwards, Johnson decided to skip a joint press conference with Luxembourg's prime minister.



()

Turns out Boris isn't the Incredible Hulk, he's the Invisible Man.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 18, 2019, 06:47:13 PM
New YouGov poll out today puts the LDs back in second again. Although they were hitting second a bunch right after the Euros (and first a couple of times), I think it's been a couple of months since they've been in second (and I think not once since Boris became PM), so somewhat notable.

Con: 32 (nc)
LD: 23 (+4)
Lab: 21 (-2)
BXP: 14 (nc)
Green: 4 (-3)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 18, 2019, 07:41:37 PM
New YouGov poll out today puts the LDs back in second again. Although they were hitting second a bunch right after the Euros (and first a couple of times), I think it's been a couple of months since they've been in second (and I think not once since Boris became PM), so somewhat notable.

Con: 32 (nc)
LD: 23 (+4)
Lab: 21 (-2)
BXP: 14 (nc)
Green: 4 (-3)

But this is right after the LDEM conference.   I assume after the LAB conference it will swing back.   


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 19, 2019, 11:41:07 AM
Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 19, 2019, 11:42:29 AM
Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (and for that reason also provided most - if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

I think Yougov underestimates LAB because unlike other pollsters they explicitly offer Greens as a party choice  with other poll only record Greens if the person being polled indicate OTHER and then provide Greens.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 19, 2019, 11:45:28 AM
Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on September 19, 2019, 11:47:46 AM
Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

I mean, looking at the aggregate of polling instead of 1 poll shows a better picture of the situation. Its not a Lib Dem collapse, per say, but they have certainly declined while Labour has risen.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 19, 2019, 11:53:19 AM
Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

I mean, looking at the aggregate of polling instead of 1 poll shows a better picture of the situation. Its not a Lib Dem collapse, per say, but they have certainly declined while Labour has risen.

It's been a fairly minimal decline though and probably attributable to a good couple of weeks for Labour rather than that one event alone - when (not if) Corbyn next sticks his foot in it their numbers may well bounce back up again.

In any case, things were always going to fall a bit for the Lib Dems once the afterglow of the Euros performance disappeared, same with Brexit Party support leaking back to the Tories.

Certainly nothing like some of the predictions in this thread back when it was all going on though - one user unironically said they were going to fall below 2017 levels because of it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 19, 2019, 11:55:03 AM
The Tory conference is going to be very interesting for the local constabulary, that is for sure.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 19, 2019, 11:56:40 AM
honestly following BritainElects on Twitter and realising how dumb partisan of all sides are is very amusing. People read so much into these random polls.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GlobeSoc on September 19, 2019, 12:00:25 PM
Labour and lib Dems vote splitting is alarming. Vote for (preferred option here) because they will definitely consolidate the vote, the (other side here) are just too weird and bad.

Tactical voting against conservatives is a thing that will be massively necessary if things keep up.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 19, 2019, 12:01:14 PM
Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.

My own view is the LibDems may have got some short term popularity at the cost of longer term problems - but we will likely find out how true (or otherwise) that is before too long :)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 19, 2019, 12:08:31 PM
I can't help that think that the route that Swinson is taking is actually making a Brexit (of the no deal sorts) more likely. But then again, I also think that she is aware of that, only she is more interested in recreating the Lib Dems as a brand than in actually adhering to her apparent principles (Cameron era minister, let's not forget).

You would hope that people would be able to see through this; but then again, the Lib Dems target voters are essentially the insufferably smug. You know, the kind of numbskull who voted  Conservative in 2015 because Ed Millibans was too radical...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 19, 2019, 12:12:16 PM
Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.


Ahem

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

etc., etc.,

 
My own view is the LibDems may have got some short term popularity at the cost of longer term problems - but we will likely find out how true (or otherwise) that is before too long :)

The possibility certainly exists but nobody can do anything other than make a guess on this. And in any case, lets not pretend any of the other parties are playing the long game either. Especially not Labour.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on September 19, 2019, 02:29:37 PM
Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.


Ahem

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

etc., etc.,

Looking at the responses, almost all of them only declare a possible danger, not one that is immediate. The first two speak of a possible danger, and the 4th gives a reason for why such a danger exists. The only one who makes such a declaration that the Lib Dems will fall apart and fail is Shadows, and.....well they're Shadows.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 19, 2019, 02:41:21 PM
Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.


Ahem

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

etc., etc.,

Looking at the responses, almost all of them only declare a possible danger, not one that is immediate. The first two speak of a possible danger, and the 4th gives a reason for why such a danger exists. The only one who makes such a declaration that the Lib Dems will fall apart and fail is Shadows, and.....well they're Shadows.

Well, yes, fine, but that is rather quibbling over semantics. The point is I wasn't strawmanning.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 19, 2019, 02:44:15 PM
Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on September 19, 2019, 02:53:36 PM
Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)



They wildly overrated the Brexit party in May; and were as wrong as everyone else in 2015.

Safest to assume that any pollsters success the last time round won't have any bearing on how well they do this time round. YouGov just have a marketing strategy tendancy to come out with particularly gimmicky/attention grabbing numbers.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 19, 2019, 03:14:28 PM
Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

2017 was called by their MRP model, not ordinary polling.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 19, 2019, 06:20:38 PM
Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (which also helps explain how they provided most - even if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

And who got 2017 correct (along with the EU Elections I think?)

This is a bit of a myth - their CONSTITUENCY MODELLING thing then was almost scarily accurate (and widely disbelieved) but their regular polling not quite as much. Especially since they chickened out with the eve of poll survey which had the Tories winning quite comfortably after some "judicious" (or not, as it transpired) herding.

And though they were quite good on the Euros (save with the BxP) Ipsos-MORI were the closest.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 19, 2019, 09:13:46 PM
I understand that way too much can be read into by-elections, as there's quite a bit of variety at the local level in Britain, but it's striking how few of these elections are Lab vs Con.  It seems it's either Lab vs not Lab vote coalescing behind a LD candidate or it's Con vs not Con vote coalescing behind a LD candidate.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 20, 2019, 01:21:10 AM
Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 20, 2019, 04:26:34 AM
Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election

Well that is perfectly possible, as are many other things.

But equally, 2017 is a powerful argument against the actual campaign not changing anything - not least because it didn't "just happen", but did so for reasons that could well apply again.

Count me as somebody sceptical that dumping Ed M before the 2015 GE would have worked either.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 20, 2019, 04:35:05 AM
Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election

I wish Corbyn could be unseated soon, there is the electability factor and also so many other reasons he should not be PM (but Labour is of course far better than the Tories and the other parties either aren't actually much better or have no chance of forming a government). The 2016 experience seems to have killed those hopes though, and even if the membership has changed their mind it would probably be too impractical to have a leadership contest at this stage distracting from stopping no-deal and probably too close to a potential election. Hopefully Corbyn does do well campaigning again, but he is even more unpopular than in 2017, and it's far from clear that the 2017 experience can be repeated in these significantly different conditions.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 20, 2019, 05:03:10 AM
Yes to all the above (and I made a point about it’s above before) but I’m still terrified by the prospect that these polls and are right and the short campaign won’t change them and we’ll look back at this period as the same way we look back at late ‘14-15- as a time when we ignored that our leader was a huge block for labour winning an election

I wish Corbyn could be unseated soon, there is the electability factor and also so many other reasons he should not be PM (but Labour is of course far better than the Tories and the other parties either aren't actually much better or have no chance of forming a government). The 2016 experience seems to have killed those hopes though, and even if the membership has changed their mind it would probably be too impractical to have a leadership contest at this stage distracting from stopping no-deal and probably too close to a potential election. Hopefully Corbyn does do well campaigning again, but he is even more unpopular than in 2017, and it's far from clear that the 2017 experience can be repeated in these significantly different conditions.

Its not guaranteed, sure.

But what were some of the factors that caused it last time?

1) a popular manifesto;

2) Corbyn actually being good at campaigning;

3) the GE (contrary to predictions then, too) not just being a referendum on Brexit after all;

4) the broadcast media (and even press, just a bit) having to give Labour more and fairer coverage;

5) linked to the above, anti-Corbyn MPs/officials being "out of town" and thus not so easy copy for hostile hacks;

6) the Tories fought a dreadful campaign (contrary to MSM myth after the fact, this was not the only thing that mattered tho!)

And Corbyn's ratings *were* almost as bad as now going into the campaign. Labour had just lost a seat it had held since 1935 to the Tories FFS!

Now, I appreciate things *are* different now in some respects - in particular, it will be harder to just push Brexit aside especially if the election is before we have left (though equally I wouldn't be totally shocked if Labour's approach actually goes down quite well during a campaign) and there is no guarantee the Tory campaign will be as dismal (though given BoJo's recent pratfalls in the public eye, who knows?) But equally, even the best polls for the Tories don't show them doing as well as in spring 2017 - and if those aren't the ones that are correct, what then?

So in short, yes the Tories *could* win a snap election. But some of the pessimism on my side is much overdone - its still all to play for ;)





Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 20, 2019, 05:07:31 AM
Of course it's all to play for, there's a very wide range of possible scenarios-the electorate is very volatile and polling accuracy is unclear. I'm not sure whether the most likely of those possible scenarios is a hung parliament or a Tory majority though.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 20, 2019, 12:54:08 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/world/europe/boris-johnson-brexit-polls.amp.html


Because the voters have a feeling that parliament is trying to sabotage Brexit plain and simple . If they weren’t trying to sabotage it they would have voted for May’s deal


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 20, 2019, 02:27:59 PM
Some people felt May's deal wasn't "proper Brexit".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 20, 2019, 03:11:31 PM
Another thing of interest: a motion has been tabled to the Labour NEC to abolish the position of Deputy Leader...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on September 20, 2019, 04:00:39 PM
And anyway, people could have also preferred a softer Brexit and thought May's deal was too economically damaging. Additionally, it was quite far from what the Leave campaign promised, and certainly didn't appear to be the 'will of the people', so MPs were right to vote their conscience and think that Remain is a better outcome and voters deserve a chance to revisit the issue.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 20, 2019, 04:20:53 PM
And anyway, people could have also preferred a softer Brexit and thought May's deal was too economically damaging. Additionally, it was quite far from what the Leave campaign promised, and certainly didn't appear to be the 'will of the people', so MPs were right to vote their conscience and think that Remain is a better outcome and voters deserve a chance to revisit the issue.

In hindsight it really is criminal just how much the Leave Campaign got away with any scrutiny.

The Leave Campaign promised we'd keep all the benefits, without ever having to trigger Article 50. Of course the leave campaign was a campaign- it was never a coherent campaign for governing, and I reckon if you sat down the 10 or so MPs who lead it and asked 'ok you're going to win what happens now?' you'd get 8 people scratching their head, one person saying Norway and someone saying second referendum.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 20, 2019, 06:20:52 PM
Strong rumours that the Watson business is really about Corbyn being about to step down soon (he may even announce it in his big speech next week) and his "deputy" not then automatically stepping into his shoes even temporarily when he does. Not least because many genuinely fear that he would try to rig any leadership contest in his faction's favour.

And though not many in the media (who see very chummy with him now, what a contrast to the phone hacking days eh?) will report this, Watson p***ed off people well beyond the "usual suspects" with his recent gratuitously clumsy intervention on Brexit - his demand that a GE be delayed for several months in the (almost certainly chimerical, without one) pursuit of a referendum was greatly ill-judged, and supported by hardly anybody.

Add to that the undoubted fact (just ask any almost random CLP meeting) that most members who voted for him in 2015 would certainly not do so now (many thinking he won on a thoroughly cynical if not false prospectus) and things were always likely to come to a head at some point.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 20, 2019, 06:41:42 PM
I don't want to repeat the "Labour should be 20% ahead in the polls" trope, but the Watson situation is so absurd that (yet again) it defies satire. Perhaps the whole matter will be defused, but I can't believe they'd think this (out of all possible options) is the moment to attempt a purge which will cause huge backlash within the PLP... particularly after witnessing Johnson shooting himself in the foot by erasing his majority.

Do they even want to win the next election? They're making Milliband look like a strategic genius.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on September 21, 2019, 03:08:07 AM
Strong rumours that the Watson business is really about Corbyn being about to step down soon (he may even announce it in his big speech next week) and his "deputy" not then automatically stepping into his shoes even temporarily when he does. Not least because many genuinely fear that he would try to rig any leadership contest in his faction's favour.

And though not many in the media (who see very chummy with him now, what a contrast to the phone hacking days eh?) will report this, Watson p***ed off people well beyond the "usual suspects" with his recent gratuitously clumsy intervention on Brexit - his demand that a GE be delayed for several months in the (almost certainly chimerical, without one) pursuit of a referendum was greatly ill-judged, and supported by hardly anybody.

Add to that the undoubted fact (just ask any almost random CLP meeting) that most members who voted for him in 2015 would certainly not do so now (many thinking he won on a thoroughly cynical if not false prospectus) and things were always likely to come to a head at some point.

But to do anything as Labour Leader you need an NEC majority; even as acting leader I can’t see what Tom could do to rig the next election, and they were passing rules to completely limit the power of a deputy.

This is no different to when they stopped Emily Thornberry from doing PMQs, when they changed Clive Lewis speech on trident in the TelePrompTer, when they changed the GS UNITE election or when introduced ridiculous new trigger rules; it’s all about punishing people who aren’t part of LOTO and the Unite Axis. Yes it’s politics, yes the New Labour Machine did it in the early years but it’s still vicious, and it’s still making the party miserable at times.

Seeing as most of the Tory press are baying for his blood over the Paedophile ring I don’t think it’s that true? Both sides within labour know how to text and brief journalists- it’s not 2015 and JCs team are more than able to do it when they want.

And to sound like a smug idiot I voted for Tom in 2015 knowing full well what he was- a trade union fixer on the right of the party who knew how to campaign well. If they wanted someone from the campaign group they should have ran someone.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 21, 2019, 06:02:55 AM
The vote to "abolish Watson" has been pulled - there will be an examination of the DL position (*) as part of a more general review aimed at "strengthening party democracy".

(*worth remembering here that the post - as we know it, at least - was created as a sop to the almost overweening vanity of Herbert Morrison, and there has for as long as I can remember been a section of opinion in the party who would like to see it scrapped)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 21, 2019, 06:45:35 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 21, 2019, 03:39:48 PM
The vote to "abolish Watson" has been pulled - there will be an examination of the DL position (*) as part of a more general review aimed at "strengthening party democracy".

(*worth remembering here that the post - as we know it, at least - was created as a sop to the almost overweening vanity of Herbert Morrison, and there has for as long as I can remember been a section of opinion in the party who would like to see it scrapped)

Well, at least it was pulled, but again this incident suggests that too many people in the Labour Party, including those in key positions, are way too interested in internal factional vendettas and the like.  And for someone who wants the vile group of people currently passing as a government out, this is incredibly frustrating.

I do realise that you need two sides for a factional war and that the right wing of the Labour Party is not exactly innocent in all this, and Watson isn't really my cup of tea, though I think he's right on Brexit.  But why Lansman thought it was sensible to try this on at this time and why some more people apparently supported him really beats me.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 21, 2019, 03:53:18 PM
The vote to "abolish Watson" has been pulled - there will be an examination of the DL position (*) as part of a more general review aimed at "strengthening party democracy".

(*worth remembering here that the post - as we know it, at least - was created as a sop to the almost overweening vanity of Herbert Morrison, and there has for as long as I can remember been a section of opinion in the party who would like to see it scrapped)

Well, at least it was pulled, but again this incident suggests that too many people in the Labour Party, including those in key positions, are way too interested in internal factional vendettas and the like.  And for someone who wants the vile group of people currently passing as a government out, this is incredibly frustrating.

I do realise that you need two sides for a factional war and that the right wing of the Labour Party is not exactly innocent in all this, and Watson isn't really my cup of tea, though I think he's right on Brexit.  But why Lansman thought it was sensible to try this on at this time and why some more people apparently supported him really beats me.

Though he "believed" almost the diametric opposite immediately after the referendum. Just shows that he is basically a snake who should not be trusted by anybody - I have barely wavered in my own belief he is fundamentally a bad 'un ever since his 2006 antics (and who was the party leader then?)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 21, 2019, 03:56:22 PM
I think my views on Corbyn and Corbyn's Labour have been made very plain and I've never liked Watson. Make of that what you will.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 21, 2019, 06:31:01 PM


This is kind of a problem that goes deeper than Corbyn, though, isn't it? Like, the idea that There Be Dragons morally and electorally speaking everywhere outside the Labour Party as such, seems to be an entrenched element of the party's culture and mindset. Or have I just not been following British politics closely for long enough to remember a time when that wasn't the case?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 22, 2019, 02:52:10 AM
Mike Hill (Hartlepool) has been suspended from Labour over an allegation of sexual harrassment.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 22, 2019, 04:38:45 AM
Mike Hill (Hartlepool) has been suspended from Labour over an allegation of sexual harrassment.

Well that's him b***ered for any early GE given the speed (or rather, lack of) the party usually shows in dealing with these things <cough> Kelvin Hopkins <cough>


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lechasseur on September 22, 2019, 03:02:08 PM
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/labour-members-abolish-monarchy-queen-130240053.html

Apparently over 60% of Labour Party members want the monarchy abolished.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: RedPrometheus on September 22, 2019, 03:23:19 PM
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/labour-members-abolish-monarchy-queen-130240053.html

Apparently over 60% of Labour Party members want the monarchy abolished.

Labour really have their priorities straight


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 22, 2019, 03:49:18 PM
That finding does not mean that 60% have it as a top "priority". Though given both recent happenings and possible future developments, British republicanism could be due a bit of an upturn anyway?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 22, 2019, 04:05:22 PM
Labour's policy is now to effectively abolish private schools. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49786645)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: PSOL on September 22, 2019, 04:15:18 PM
Labour's policy is now to effectively abolish private schools. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49786645)
Eliminates the future generations of idiotic Etonians, nice.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 22, 2019, 04:18:31 PM
Eton would likely survive; the smaller schools would likely go and you'd have to find places for them in the state sector.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 22, 2019, 06:18:25 PM
Labour's policy is now to effectively abolish private schools. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49786645)

Passed on a show of hands, so no not actual "policy". But the direction of travel is clear, and polls indicate it is more popular than the "chattering classes" (so bound up with private schools themselves) are ever likely to give credit for.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on September 23, 2019, 01:58:07 AM
It's like they're trying to lose.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 23, 2019, 05:38:38 AM
Thomas Cook has gone bust, partly down to Brexit, although the problems had been there for years.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 23, 2019, 07:09:12 AM
It's like they're trying to lose.



At the moment UK rules on eligibility to vote make little sense.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on September 23, 2019, 07:29:23 AM
Thomas Cook has gone bust, partly down to Brexit, although the problems had been there for years.

Appropriate, since Brexit has been a Kook's Tour (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kook%27s_Tour).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 23, 2019, 08:04:00 AM
It's like they're trying to lose.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1175844135582015489

At the moment UK rules on eligibility to vote make little sense.

Indeed, I never quite understood why a Pakistani or Mozambique Citizen in the UK should be able to vote, while a Pole or a Frenchman should not. New Zealand allows this, and it works pretty well there.  
That said, It does rather seem to be changing the rules of the game for partisan advantage, though. Labour would clearly be the beneficiaries of this. And it disincentivizes people from Naturalising and becoming British Citizens.

Given the current situation with Brexit such a big thing, it might actually be the LibDems?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 23, 2019, 10:28:15 AM
It's like they're trying to lose.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1175844135582015489

At the moment UK rules on eligibility to vote make little sense.

Indeed, I never quite understood why a Pakistani or Mozambique Citizen in the UK should be able to vote, while a Pole or a Frenchman should not. New Zealand allows this, and it works pretty well there.  
That said, It does rather seem to be changing the rules of the game for partisan advantage, though. Labour would clearly be the beneficiaries of this. And it disincentivizes people from Naturalising and becoming British Citizens.

Given the current situation with Brexit such a big thing, it might actually be the LibDems?

Either way, it certainly wouldn't be the Tories which is why it probably appeals to Labour


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on September 23, 2019, 11:51:15 AM
The Labour Conference sides with Corbyn and votes down a motion that would have officially called for Labour to campaign for remaining in the EU in a possible second referendum. Pretty shambolic scenes as the show-of-hand vote seemed to be quite even; the chair nevertheless judged that the motion had lost and refused to have a card vote. An earlier Corbyn-backed motion passed making Labour a "Brexit neutral" party.

Edit. Reminded me of this scene from the 2012 Democratic Convention: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8BwqzzqcDs


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 23, 2019, 12:22:36 PM
So much for Remain strategic voting for Labour...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on September 23, 2019, 12:34:52 PM
It's like they're trying to lose.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1175844135582015489

At the moment UK rules on eligibility to vote make little sense.

Indeed, I never quite understood why a Pakistani or Mozambique Citizen in the UK should be able to vote, while a Pole or a Frenchman should not. New Zealand allows this, and it works pretty well there.  
That said, It does rather seem to be changing the rules of the game for partisan advantage, though. Labour would clearly be the beneficiaries of this. And it disincentivizes people from Naturalising and becoming British Citizens.

Given the current situation with Brexit such a big thing, it might actually be the LibDems?

Either way, it certainly wouldn't be the Tories which is why it probably appeals to Labour

The Labour priority list:

1) The wrong faction of Labour must be stopped from having power.
2) The Tories must be stopped from having power.
3) Labour government.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Farmlands on September 23, 2019, 01:54:10 PM
From an outsider's perspective, I see Labour members chanting "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" enthusiastically, as the party refuses to hold a democratic card vote that could clear things up, but change the outcome to something Corbyn would disapprove of. I find it difficult to view it as anything other than cult-like.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 23, 2019, 02:20:52 PM
Of course if Britain didn't use FPTP Labour could court a working-class "Brexit-neutral" base, the Lib Dems and Greens and so forth could court committed Europeanists across the left-right spectrum and up and down the class system, and neither would have to worry about producing an artificial Tory landslide by fishing in different pools.

Having said that, yeah, the Labour membership's leader-worship is getting seriously creepy.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 23, 2019, 02:36:36 PM
Of course if Britain didn't use FPTP Labour could court a working-class "Brexit-neutral" base, the Lib Dems and Greens and so forth could court committed Europeanists across the left-right spectrum and up and down the class system, and neither would have to worry about producing an artificial Tory landslide by fishing in different pools.

That's probably what's going to happen anyway. Except without the 'not worry about producing an artificial Tory landslide' bit but FPTP is what it is. It (unfortunately) may result in a Tory landslide but then again we don't know how badly the Brexit Party vote will affect them.

Having said that, yeah, the Labour membership's leader-worship is getting seriously creepy.

It'e been that way for years.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 23, 2019, 04:23:45 PM
Well what can you expect when certain of Corbyn's long term opponents in the party have so cynically used "remain no matter what and exile the 52% to the outer darkness" as a wedge issue?

They are too short sighted to see a full on CULTURE WAR on this will only benefit Cummings.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 04:45:29 AM
Breaking:

UK Supreme Court rules prorogation of parliament unlawful, upholding the earlier verdict from Scotland

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49810261


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 24, 2019, 04:46:29 AM
That was comprehensively damning for Boris Johnson and the Government.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on September 24, 2019, 04:48:01 AM
That was comprehensively damning for Boris Johnson and the Government.

Given the unanimous decision, how can there be such a massive chasm in judgement between the High Court in England and Supreme Court?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 04:51:39 AM
That was comprehensively damning for Boris Johnson and the Government.

Given the unanimous decision, how can there be such a massive chasm in judgement between the High Court in England and Supreme Court?


Quoting from today's verdict:

Quote
On 11th September, the High Court of England and Wales delivered judgment dismissing Mrs Miller’s claim on the ground that the issue was not justiciable in a court of law. That same day, the Inner House of the Court of Session in Scotland announced its decision  that  the  issue  was justiciable, that it was motivated by the improper purpose ofstymying Parliamentary scrutiny of the Government, and that it, and any prorogation which followed it, were unlawful and thus void and of no effect.

...

The first question is whether the lawfulness of the Prime Minister’s advice to Her Majesty is justiciable. This Court holds that it is. The courts have exercised a supervisory jurisdiction over the lawfulness of acts of the Government for centuries. As long ago as 1611, the court held that “the King [who was then the government] hath no prerogative but that which the law of the land allows him”. However, in considering prerogative powers, it is necessary to distinguish between two different questions. The first is whether a prerogative power exists and if so its extent. The second is whether the exercise of  that power, within its limits, is open to legal  challenge. This second question may depend upon what the power is all about: some powers are not amenable to judicial review while others are. However, there is no doubt that the courts have jurisdiction to decide upon the existence and limits of a prerogative power. All the parties to this case accept that. This Court has concluded that this case is about the limits of the power to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament.

https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2019-0192-summary.pdf


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 04:54:30 AM
I suppose things will move very fast now...




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 04:55:51 AM
Bercow's statement:

()


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 24, 2019, 04:56:33 AM
Labour are in Conference in Brighton. What on Earth this does to the Tory conference in  Manchester next week is unclear - voting by proxy is only allowed for serious illness or maternity, I believe.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 05:02:10 AM
Corbyn and SNP have called for Johnson's resignation.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on September 24, 2019, 05:08:37 AM
That was comprehensively damning for Boris Johnson and the Government.

Given the unanimous decision, how can there be such a massive chasm in judgement between the High Court in England and Supreme Court?


Quoting from today's verdict:

Quote
On 11th September, the High Court of England and Wales delivered judgment dismissing Mrs Miller’s claim on the ground that the issue was not justiciable in a court of law. That same day, the Inner House of the Court of Session in Scotland announced its decision  that  the  issue  was justiciable, that it was motivated by the improper purpose ofstymying Parliamentary scrutiny of the Government, and that it, and any prorogation which followed it, were unlawful and thus void and of no effect.

...

The first question is whether the lawfulness of the Prime Minister’s advice to Her Majesty is justiciable. This Court holds that it is. The courts have exercised a supervisory jurisdiction over the lawfulness of acts of the Government for centuries. As long ago as 1611, the court held that “the King [who was then the government] hath no prerogative but that which the law of the land allows him”. However, in considering prerogative powers, it is necessary to distinguish between two different questions. The first is whether a prerogative power exists and if so its extent. The second is whether the exercise of  that power, within its limits, is open to legal  challenge. This second question may depend upon what the power is all about: some powers are not amenable to judicial review while others are. However, there is no doubt that the courts have jurisdiction to decide upon the existence and limits of a prerogative power. All the parties to this case accept that. This Court has concluded that this case is about the limits of the power to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament.

https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2019-0192-summary.pdf

Thanks. It still wouldn't sit easily with me if my Supreme Court had such a radically different view to my regional court of the courts power as a whole over parliamentary procedure. I know this a win for Remain but yet again I think it shows deep seated vulnerabilities in an outdated political system, that is crying out for a federal Constitution.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 24, 2019, 05:14:42 AM
Boris' luck is really something. The news cycle is all about Labour embarrassing themselves at Conference and then suddenly this comes along and puts all the embarrassment onto him. I'd feel sorry for him if it wasn't hilarious. And he wasn't him.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on September 24, 2019, 05:21:06 AM
Boris' luck is really something. The news cycle is all about Labour embarrassing themselves at Conference and then suddenly this comes along and puts all the embarrassment onto him. I'd feel sorry for him if it wasn't hilarious. And he wasn't him.

This feeds into his narrative if anything. Him with the referenfum mandate Vs the Remain establishment.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on September 24, 2019, 05:21:33 AM
I think Johnson should resign. His entire strategy was to us the threat of No Deal Brexit to for the EU to compromise and to then force moderates of all sides to vote for an amended deal.  That strategy does not seem viable anymore.  He should just like someone like Corbyn take a shot at coming up with something with the EU before 10/31 or some other date.  There is going to an election soon one way or another. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 05:47:18 AM










Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 06:07:27 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 06:18:19 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 24, 2019, 06:18:42 AM
So much for Remain strategic voting for Labour...

The large majority of Labour MPs and activists/members are pro-remain and would campaign in another referendum in favour of it whatever the "official" party line.

(even leaving aside that another vote was *the* central demand of anti-Brexit campaigners until, like, a few weeks ago)

Ah yes, no need to worry about all that because the LibDems will sweep to power :D


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Torrain on September 24, 2019, 06:51:31 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Torrain on September 24, 2019, 07:08:52 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 24, 2019, 07:10:27 AM
Boris' luck is really something. The news cycle is all about Labour embarrassing themselves at Conference and then suddenly this comes along and puts all the embarrassment onto him. I'd feel sorry for him if it wasn't hilarious. And he wasn't him.

This feeds into his narrative if anything. Him with the referenfum mandate Vs the Remain establishment.

But you can use that as an argument, pretty much, for not opposing him on anything at all.

Fundamentally defeatist IMO.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 07:10:51 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 24, 2019, 07:16:36 AM


They don't have any choice in the matter!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 24, 2019, 07:17:32 AM
The ruling was unanimous. Given the very wide range of known constitutional views on the Court, this is really telling.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 24, 2019, 07:57:33 AM
Brilliant flawless mastermind Dominic Cummings triumphs again. Will he ever make any single mistake?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 24, 2019, 08:36:05 AM
Brilliant flawless mastermind Dominic Cummings triumphs again. Will he ever make any single mistake?

Clearly the "we only need to be bold and audacious" strategy has failed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Torrain on September 24, 2019, 09:56:43 AM


They don't have any choice in the matter!

Oh, I know. But given that LEave.eu has spent all day smearing the Supreme Court, one member at a time, it's good to know that they aren't trying to reject the role of the judiciary outright.

My standards for what constitutes good news hve really fallen over the last year.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Serenity Now on September 24, 2019, 11:47:25 AM
The phrase "I'm not asking you, I'm telling you" comes to mind. ;)



They don't have any choice in the matter!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: President Johnson on September 24, 2019, 12:50:44 PM
I wonder what happens if Johnson simply refuses to send a letter to Brussels with a request for another delay. Actually I hope that happens, as I'm sick and tired of Brexit. Take the negotiated deal or just get out.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Cassius on September 24, 2019, 01:29:11 PM
Brilliant flawless mastermind Dominic Cummings triumphs again. Will he ever make any single mistake?

I’m not a disciple of Cummings, but the prorogation strategy would have worked were it not for the legal chicanery that followed it. One could argue that that should have been foreseen, but the law is hardly clear cut on the issue of prorogation - the Court of Session ruled it justiciable and illegal, whereas the High Court’s or Justice and of Northern Ireland ruled it injusticiable, and from there it was punted to the Supreme Court which subsequently ruled as it did. Had there been non prorogation, we would’ve been in exactly the same position as we have been throughout this parliament; an executive unable to government and a legislature unable to make up its mind as to what it wants to do. Prorogation would’ve broken this deadlock and actually allowed the executive to function effectively for once.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on September 24, 2019, 03:45:17 PM
I wonder what happens if Johnson simply refuses to send a letter to Brussels with a request for another delay. Actually I hope that happens, as I'm sick and tired of Brexit. Take the negotiated deal or just get out.

If he refuses to send the letter ahead of time, he'll be VoNC'd & a caretaker PM will be installed who will send the letter. If the stalls & stalls & stalls & the deadline passes without him sending it, he'll be sent to prison for contempt.

And as sick & tired as we all are of Brexit right now, it's nothing compared to the madness that would be a no-deal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Dereich on September 24, 2019, 04:18:52 PM
I wonder what happens if Johnson simply refuses to send a letter to Brussels with a request for another delay. Actually I hope that happens, as I'm sick and tired of Brexit. Take the negotiated deal or just get out.

If he refuses to send the letter ahead of time, he'll be VoNC'd & a caretaker PM will be installed who will send the letter.  If the stalls & stalls & stalls & the deadline passes without him sending it, he'll be sent to prison for contempt.

And as sick & tired as we all are of Brexit right now, it's nothing compared to the madness that would be a no-deal.

Would one though? Last time the issue came up, Corbyn insisted on himself as temporary PM and the Lib Dems/Tory Rebels insisted on anyone but him. The issue went away when a different avenue to attack Brexit arose, but it wasn't really resolved.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 24, 2019, 04:23:37 PM
Quite a lot has happened in recent months that people previously thought wasn't possible. If the PM is banking on the inability of his opponents to agree a replacement, he could yet be disappointed again.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 24, 2019, 04:40:30 PM
I hope and believe that this day will go down in British history. What happened today is incredibly important. It's not even necessarily that important for Brexit, or even for Boris Johnson's political career. It's important for the fundamental principle it begins to establish in British law (and hopefully, this will also reverberate in countries whose laws were inspired by Britain). For over half a century, parliamentary democracy has been in decline across the Western world, as executives have increasingly arrogated power for themselves. "Parliamentary supremacy", that big word of British constitutional discourse, seemed to have a legal fiction, withall real decisions being taken in Downing Street. Parliament's hamstringing of the government's Brexit negotiations first, and now this Supreme Court ruling, are the first steps in reversing this dynamic, and giving back Parliament meaningful decision-making power. If you look at this in conjunction with Italy's government crisis, and possibly Netanyahu's upcoming fall from power (three admittedly very different political developments), the common thread is the failure of personalist leaders to impose their will on plural, representative, deliberative bodies. This is a heartening series of developments for democracy.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on September 24, 2019, 05:42:05 PM
I wonder what happens if Johnson simply refuses to send a letter to Brussels with a request for another delay. Actually I hope that happens, as I'm sick and tired of Brexit. Take the negotiated deal or just get out.

If he refuses to send the letter ahead of time, he'll be VoNC'd & a caretaker PM will be installed who will send the letter.  If the stalls & stalls & stalls & the deadline passes without him sending it, he'll be sent to prison for contempt.

And as sick & tired as we all are of Brexit right now, it's nothing compared to the madness that would be a no-deal.

Would one though? Last time the issue came up, Corbyn insisted on himself as temporary PM and the Lib Dems/Tory Rebels insisted on anyone but him. The issue went away when a different avenue to attack Brexit arose, but it wasn't really resolved.

He insisted on it being him at first but then changed his tune to leaving the door open re: supporting an alternative caretaker PM, which tells me he'll end up falling in line if a caretaker PM actually ends up looking necessary.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 24, 2019, 06:13:43 PM
I wonder what happens if Johnson simply refuses to send a letter to Brussels with a request for another delay. Actually I hope that happens, as I'm sick and tired of Brexit. Take the negotiated deal or just get out.

If he refuses to send the letter ahead of time, he'll be VoNC'd & a caretaker PM will be installed who will send the letter. If the stalls & stalls & stalls & the deadline passes without him sending it, he'll be sent to prison for contempt.

And as sick & tired as we all are of Brexit right now, it's nothing compared to the madness that would be a no-deal.


The main problem for Parliament is The Tories still lead in the polls by a good amount despite all of this so using traditional means won’t work . And vote of no confidence will just trigger a new election which is what Boris wants


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on September 24, 2019, 08:04:53 PM
I wonder what happens if Johnson simply refuses to send a letter to Brussels with a request for another delay. Actually I hope that happens, as I'm sick and tired of Brexit. Take the negotiated deal or just get out.

If he refuses to send the letter ahead of time, he'll be VoNC'd & a caretaker PM will be installed who will send the letter. If the stalls & stalls & stalls & the deadline passes without him sending it, he'll be sent to prison for contempt.

And as sick & tired as we all are of Brexit right now, it's nothing compared to the madness that would be a no-deal.


The main problem for Parliament is The Tories still lead in the polls by a good amount despite all of this so using traditional means won’t work . And vote of no confidence will just trigger a new election which is what Boris wants

The polls are quite literally useless right now as people who'd vote Tory post no-deal but wouldn't in the case of an extension are basing their vote on a complete fantasy where exiting the EU will bring them whatever kind of unicorn Brexit they've dreamt of. It's literally useless information considering the reality of no-deal would make them less enthusiastic about the party that caused it.

And a VoNC only triggers an election if an alternative government can't be formed within 14 days of the VoNC being passed. If a caretaker PM is already lined up, though (as is expected), then automatically triggering an election isn't an issue. Now, of course, said caretaker PM is still guaranteed to call an election (which would now be supported by Parliament this time) after successfully requesting the extension, but an election held after an extension would likely not be good for the Tories.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin on September 25, 2019, 07:33:58 AM
I wonder what happens if Johnson simply refuses to send a letter to Brussels with a request for another delay. Actually I hope that happens, as I'm sick and tired of Brexit. Take the negotiated deal or just get out.

If he refuses to send the letter ahead of time, he'll be VoNC'd & a caretaker PM will be installed who will send the letter.  If the stalls & stalls & stalls & the deadline passes without him sending it, he'll be sent to prison for contempt.

And as sick & tired as we all are of Brexit right now, it's nothing compared to the madness that would be a no-deal.

Would one though? Last time the issue came up, Corbyn insisted on himself as temporary PM and the Lib Dems/Tory Rebels insisted on anyone but him. The issue went away when a different avenue to attack Brexit arose, but it wasn't really resolved.

There is no such thing as a "No Deal" Brexit. Even if Great Britain were actually capable of cutting off all commerce with the Continent (which it is not), Northern Ireland has a land border with Ireland that for reasons both practical and historical cannot just be severed.

The only question with any Brexit with how much negotiating happens before vs how much happens afterwards, when the UK is in a much weaker position.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 25, 2019, 08:09:57 AM
I mean, that BoJo speech to the UN.......

Weird or what??


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on September 25, 2019, 01:33:01 PM
BoJo asks opposition parties to table a motion of no-confidence. Opposition says "lol no".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on September 25, 2019, 01:41:50 PM
BoJo asks opposition parties to table a motion of no-confidence. Opposition says "lol no".

*When you're so weak & incompetent that you've left yourself in a position where you can't even collapse your own government.*


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 25, 2019, 01:43:15 PM
BoJo asks opposition parties to table a motion of no-confidence. Opposition says "lol no".

"wHY woN't JeReMy COrbyN VotE agaINST Me?!"


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 25, 2019, 02:55:17 PM
BoJo could try to pull Balfour by going to the palace, tendering his resignation and "advising" the Queen to invite the Leader of the Opposition, since his party is unable to fork a working government. But of course that would prevent him from pulling the "they forced us out!" card.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on September 25, 2019, 03:02:07 PM
You know, I'm beginning to get the impression this might not be a very good government


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on September 25, 2019, 03:34:52 PM
You know, I'm beginning to get the impression this might not be a very good government

Not a very strong & stable government indeed. Still, could be worse... we could always have chaos with Ed Miliband, after all.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on September 25, 2019, 04:04:07 PM
Johnson was warned repeatedly about his use of language ("surrender", "betrayal", "traitors") given the present context - several MP's have raised the issue of how many death threats they've recieved -, and when an MP asked him to be careful with dangerous terms in light of what happened to Jo Cox.

Johnson's response? "I never heard such humbug in all my life.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on September 25, 2019, 04:43:33 PM
Johnson was warned repeatedly about his use of language ("surrender", "betrayal", "traitors") given the present context - several MP's have raised the issue of how many death threats they've recieved -, and when an MP asked him to be careful with dangerous terms in light of what happened to Jo Cox.

Johnson's response? "I never heard such humbug in all my life.

That's because Boris Johnson doesn't care.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 25, 2019, 04:44:17 PM
A few less whisky-breakfasts would do our politics the world of good right now, I think.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on September 25, 2019, 04:49:04 PM
Well, that was....something.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on September 25, 2019, 05:19:21 PM
BoJo asks opposition parties to table a motion of no-confidence. Opposition says "lol no".

Wait doesnt Boris want the opposition to bring forward a no-confidence motion, if so why would he wanted it tabled


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on September 25, 2019, 05:21:59 PM
You know, I'm beginning to get the impression this might not be a very good government

I was, but then I saw Johnson's speech at the UN and I quite like this government.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Angel of Death on September 25, 2019, 05:38:37 PM
BoJo asks opposition parties to table a motion of no-confidence. Opposition says "lol no".

Wait doesnt Boris want the opposition to bring forward a no-confidence motion, if so why would he wanted it tabled

Quote from: the Wikipedia article on "Table (parliamentary procedure)"
In parliamentary procedure, the verb to table has the opposite meaning in different countries:

  • In the United States, to "table" usually means to postpone or suspend consideration of a pending motion.
  • In the rest of the English-speaking world, to "table" means to begin consideration (or reconsideration) of a proposal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 25, 2019, 06:05:12 PM
You know, I'm beginning to get the impression this might not be a very good government

Not a very strong & stable government indeed. Still, could be worse... we could always have chaos with Ed Miliband, after all.

A reminder that in an alternate universe, his first term as PM still has half a year to run.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Illiniwek on September 25, 2019, 08:02:43 PM
So why does the opposition not want an election? They are that confident they would lose?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Peanut on September 25, 2019, 09:18:34 PM
So why does the opposition not want an election? They are that confident they would lose?

Even if they aren't, would you really wanna risk 5 years of Boris Johnson?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on September 26, 2019, 02:34:05 AM
So why does the opposition not want an election? They are that confident they would lose?

Because, assuming they win an outright majority, which is unlikely, it would leave them very little time to avoid no deal or a sh**t deal. If they get elected just before the summit, they'll have a week to settle on a policy.

Johnson wanted election day to be the Monday after Brexit IIRC. Which is also a ballsy move but his whole leadership campaign is about October 31st and getting Brexit over with. And judging by the polls most people are fed up too, so the opposition, particularly Labour's, contorted idea of yet another extension is not appealing.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on September 26, 2019, 02:36:54 AM
So why does the opposition not want an election? They are that confident they would lose?

I think it's more that an election pre-31 October is a genuine tossup, whereas after 31 October it will be far more difficult for the Tories to win.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on September 26, 2019, 03:23:38 AM
So why does the opposition not want an election? They are that confident they would lose?

Because a dissolution now would remove parliamentary scrutiny between now and 31 October, potentially (if Johnson can find a loophole in the Benn act, or if he tries to get away with ignoring it) allowing a no deal Brexit just before the election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on September 26, 2019, 08:14:47 AM
So why does the opposition not want an election? They are that confident they would lose?

Because, assuming they win an outright majority, which is unlikely, it would leave them very little time to avoid no deal or a sh**t deal. If they get elected just before the summit, they'll have a week to settle on a policy.

Johnson wanted election day to be the Monday after Brexit IIRC. Which is also a ballsy move but his whole leadership campaign is about October 31st and getting Brexit over with. And judging by the polls most people are fed up too, so the opposition, particularly Labour's, contorted idea of yet another extension is not appealing.

This is over-simplifying it tbh, there is still quite a lot of support out there for the various options of "compromise" - extend/referendum/deal. Though both the Tories and LibDems dream of a GE with voters utterly polarised between no deal and revoke, we are still (thankfully) some way from that.

(and that doesn't contradict lots of people being fed up with Brexit and wanting it "over with" - the reality of course is that a no deal crashout is almost the worst possible way of getting that)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 26, 2019, 08:29:55 AM
A few less whisky-breakfasts would do our politics the world of good right now, I think.

An outright ban of alcohol in the Commons even more.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 26, 2019, 08:57:56 AM
A few less whisky-breakfasts would do our politics the world of good right now, I think.

An outright ban of alcohol in the Commons even more.

Lazare Carnot and Saint-Just had an ongoing dispute regarding alcohol in the National Convention. Saint-Just, who was against it, lost the argument, as well as his head.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on September 27, 2019, 04:09:12 PM
Boris Johnson referred to police watchdog over Jennifer Arcuri links (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49859321)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blue3 on September 28, 2019, 10:32:36 PM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GoTfan on September 29, 2019, 04:02:18 AM
How close are we to a full-blown constituttional crisis?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 29, 2019, 07:32:01 PM
How close are we to a full-blown constituttional crisis?

*pictures Boris Johnson and Donald Trump setting up a competition to see who can create the greater constitutional crisis*


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on October 01, 2019, 10:19:40 AM
#JoSwinsonIsATory trends on Twitter after Lib Dems say that they would not vote for Corbyn to become the PM of a government of national unity.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: ilikeverin on October 01, 2019, 11:15:29 AM
I keep hearing rumors that BoJo will "do something" to avoid having to follow through on the bill to avoid Brexit, but I feel like I've seen little discussion of what that would actually entail. What are the theories out there about how he executes ignoring it, procedurally?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 01, 2019, 11:22:32 AM
#JoSwinsonIsATory trends on Twitter after Lib Dems say that they would not vote for Corbyn to become the PM of a government of national unity.

If Twitter Socialists decided anything in British politics, then Labour would have won all 650 constituencies in 2015 and 2017, and being a member of any other party would be illegal.

They don't though. Twitter trends are irrelevant.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on October 01, 2019, 11:59:53 AM
I keep hearing rumors that BoJo will "do something" to avoid having to follow through on the bill to avoid Brexit, but I feel like I've seen little discussion of what that would actually entail. What are the theories out there about how he executes ignoring it, procedurally?

Raph Hogarth did a twitter thread (https://twitter.com/Raphael_Hogarth/status/1177549909102419968) about all the theories of what that 'something' might be. In short: none of them are going to work.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on October 01, 2019, 12:57:06 PM
#JoSwinsonIsATory trends on Twitter after Lib Dems say that they would not vote for Corbyn to become the PM of a government of national unity.

I'm glad they're rising in the polls. It seems like "We oppose both self-inflicted economic collapse and a purge of Jewish citizens" should be a pretty popular political platform.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 01, 2019, 02:05:26 PM
So, uh, looks like Johnson’s gonna be PM on October 31st


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 01, 2019, 02:49:38 PM
#JoSwinsonIsATory trends on Twitter after Lib Dems say that they would not vote for Corbyn to become the PM of a government of national unity.

The Lib Dems won't back Corbyn, Corbyn won't back anybody not named Jeremy Corbyn, & it doesn't really matter either way because even if every single Lib Dem backed Corbyn, the Tory rebels certainly wouldn't.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 01, 2019, 03:10:17 PM
It's a shame portal guns aren't real and we can't get a Jeremy Corbyn from an alternative timeline.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 01, 2019, 03:33:20 PM
It's a shame portal guns aren't real and we can't get a Jeremy Corbyn from an alternative timeline.

You're going to have to comb through a lot of alternate universes before you find a Jeremy Corbyn that isn't an incompetent, senile buffoon.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 01, 2019, 05:31:39 PM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 01, 2019, 08:16:49 PM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

... yes. Those two situations aren't in any way comparable.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 01, 2019, 08:21:04 PM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

... yes. Those two situations aren't in any way comparable.

Harper prorogued  the Canadian Parliament for a similar amount of time and parliament has been prorogued in the UK as well .


On the other hand having the Queen unilaterally oust the PM is completely unacceptable and this request is only doing good because the opposition has been too scared to call an election and are unable to form a coalition. The queen should not intervene


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 01, 2019, 08:40:17 PM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

... yes. Those two situations aren't in any way comparable.

Harper prorogued  the Canadian Parliament for a similar amount of time and parliament has been prorogued in the UK as well .


On the other hand having the Queen unilaterally oust the PM is completely unacceptable and this request is only doing good because the opposition has been too scared to call an election and are unable to form a coalition. The queen should not intervene

The Canada situation involved a governor general who felt bound to comply with ministerial advice that was controversial & widely regarded as improper, but it never went to court, so it was never legally ruled to have been improper. In this case, however, the Queen complied with ministerial advice that was so controversial & widely regarded as improper that it did actually go to court this time, & the judiciary ruled it as having been unlawful, so the Canadian & British prorogations aren't comparable.

Moreover, this Humble Address scenario wouldn't be unilateral intervention on the Queen's part; if 326+ MPs were to clearly & formally identify an individual (other than the incumbent PM) in whom a majority of the Commons has confidence, then why should the Queen not invite that individual to form a new government? That's just a straightforward application of constitutional convention right there.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 01, 2019, 09:16:46 PM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

... yes. Those two situations aren't in any way comparable.

Harper prorogued  the Canadian Parliament for a similar amount of time and parliament has been prorogued in the UK as well .


On the other hand having the Queen unilaterally oust the PM is completely unacceptable and this request is only doing good because the opposition has been too scared to call an election and are unable to form a coalition. The queen should not intervene

The Canada situation involved a governor general who felt bound to comply with ministerial advice that was controversial & widely regarded as improper, but it never went to court, so it was never legally ruled to have been improper. In this case, however, the Queen complied with ministerial advice that was so controversial & widely regarded as improper that it did actually go to court this time, & the judiciary ruled it as having been unlawful, so the Canadian & British prorogations aren't comparable.

Moreover, this Humble Address scenario wouldn't be unilateral intervention on the Queen's part; if 326+ MPs were to clearly & formally identify an individual (other than the incumbent PM) in whom a majority of the Commons has confidence, then why should the Queen not invite that individual to form a new government? That's just a straightforward application of constitutional convention right there.


That's 100% different than unilaterally asking the queen to fire a PM. If they cant form a coalition then its their problem


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 01, 2019, 09:25:05 PM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

... yes. Those two situations aren't in any way comparable.

Harper prorogued  the Canadian Parliament for a similar amount of time and parliament has been prorogued in the UK as well .


On the other hand having the Queen unilaterally oust the PM is completely unacceptable and this request is only doing good because the opposition has been too scared to call an election and are unable to form a coalition. The queen should not intervene

The Canada situation involved a governor general who felt bound to comply with ministerial advice that was controversial & widely regarded as improper, but it never went to court, so it was never legally ruled to have been improper. In this case, however, the Queen complied with ministerial advice that was so controversial & widely regarded as improper that it did actually go to court this time, & the judiciary ruled it as having been unlawful, so the Canadian & British prorogations aren't comparable.

Moreover, this Humble Address scenario wouldn't be unilateral intervention on the Queen's part; if 326+ MPs were to clearly & formally identify an individual (other than the incumbent PM) in whom a majority of the Commons has confidence, then why should the Queen not invite that individual to form a new government? That's just a straightforward application of constitutional convention right there.


That's 100% different than unilaterally asking the queen to fire a PM. If they cant form a coalition then its their problem

Did you even read the article that you yourself shared? Because that's literally the plan that it discusses.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Joe Republic on October 02, 2019, 12:34:39 AM
for the love of christ OSR

Please stop posting in this thread.  You’re embarrassing the rest of us Americans.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 02, 2019, 02:11:33 AM
It really says something about the cancerous growth of the executive power in the US, and the extent to which most Americans take it for granted, that Beep Boop simply cannot comprehend that, in a parliamentary system, government and parliament are NOT coequal branches - the former is an employee of the latter that the latter can fire at any moment. Parliamentary supremacy actually means something, and we're finally seeing that principle affirmed in Britain at least.

That being said, it is utterly pathetic that the Rebel Alliance can't just f**king agree on a temporary caretaker PM, so they can just vote a motion of no confidence and be done with BoJo. It's not rocket science. It's dumb that the LibDems have such an objection against Corbyn, but Corbyn himself should have no problem saying "OK, let's prop up some uncontroversial elder statesman like Clarke or Harman". It really doesn't matter who leads the caretaker government - such a government would only exist so that parliament can be rid of this treasonous government fully exert its supremacy until an Article 50 extension is secured.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on October 02, 2019, 02:58:04 AM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

... yes. Those two situations aren't in any way comparable.

Harper prorogued  the Canadian Parliament for a similar amount of time and parliament has been prorogued in the UK as well .


On the other hand having the Queen unilaterally oust the PM is completely unacceptable and this request is only doing good because the opposition has been too scared to call an election and are unable to form a coalition. The queen should not intervene

The Canada situation involved a governor general who felt bound to comply with ministerial advice that was controversial & widely regarded as improper, but it never went to court, so it was never legally ruled to have been improper. In this case, however, the Queen complied with ministerial advice that was so controversial & widely regarded as improper that it did actually go to court this time, & the judiciary ruled it as having been unlawful, so the Canadian & British prorogations aren't comparable.

Moreover, this Humble Address scenario wouldn't be unilateral intervention on the Queen's part; if 326+ MPs were to clearly & formally identify an individual (other than the incumbent PM) in whom a majority of the Commons has confidence, then why should the Queen not invite that individual to form a new government? That's just a straightforward application of constitutional convention right there.


That's 100% different than unilaterally asking the queen to fire a PM. If they cant form a coalition then its their problem

Did you even read the article that you yourself shared? Because that's literally the plan that it discusses.

Also worth noting that the unilateral dismissal of a PM by the monarch('s representative) *has* happened before - Australia in 1975 - and was not only 'perfectly legal' but resulted in the dismissed PM going on to lose in a landslide.

FWIW, I wouldn't spend too much time trying to argue about the opposition's haggling over who would serve as a caretaker PM after a VONC in Johnson. For one thing, it's not a terribly likely scenario (I think Johnson will acquiesce to an extension rather than resign or break the law), and even if it was, all the talk about it now is just posturing. No one needs to commit to anything until the VONC has happened, so everyone figures they should just 'stand firm on principle' for whatever their preferred option happens to be.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 02, 2019, 03:08:49 AM
I so dearly wish I had that much faith in BoJo not finding a way around the Benn Act, or some other area in which to frustrate Parliament's sovereignty, but I'm starting to recognize the type of politician he is, and if I'm right, then every day that he spends on No. 10 is a day parliamentary democracy is at risk. I home I'm wrong.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 02, 2019, 08:35:11 AM
It's a shame portal guns aren't real and we can't get a Jeremy Corbyn from an alternative timeline.

You're going to have to comb through a lot of alternate universes before you find a Jeremy Corbyn that isn't an incompetent, senile buffoon.

Seriously, there is not the slightest evidence he is "senile".

(you didn't actually believe that basically totally made up "exclusive" in the Times, did you?)

All credible indications are that he is very much compos mentis. Now, your other descriptors are at least arguable ;)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 02, 2019, 11:54:37 AM
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-stephen-harper-endorses-boris-johnson-at-conservative-party-conference/


The best Western Leader of the past decade gives his thoughts


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 02, 2019, 12:54:23 PM
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-stephen-harper-endorses-boris-johnson-at-conservative-party-conference/


The best Western Leader of the past decade gives his thoughts

The guy who used a shady reason to prorogue Parliament to screw over his rivals endorses a guy who used a shady reason to prorogue Parliament to screw over his rivals.

What a shocker!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 02, 2019, 02:35:40 PM
So... BoJo's new "I-Can't-Believe-It's-Not-A-Backstop" plan is pretty much DOA. It will be either no deal or another extension.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 02, 2019, 03:18:52 PM
So... BoJo's new "I-Can't-Believe-It's-Not-A-Backstop" plan is pretty much DOA. It will be either no deal or another extension.

The Tories just put up an ad for a Tory MEP internship in Brussels that starts on November 1st (https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1178645480659705857), so it seems like the behind-the-scenes presumption is that BoJo's gonna take the plunge &, as mandated by law, request the extension that he so desperately wants to not request.

Funnily enough, this reminds me of when the Tories were officially saying that they wouldn't hold the EU elections whilst simultaneously sending word out behind-the-scenes to their constituency associations to tell them to prepare for the EU elections.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 02, 2019, 03:32:58 PM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

AHHHHHHH can you please learn how our political system works before commenting?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 02, 2019, 03:45:16 PM
So... BoJo's new "I-Can't-Believe-It's-Not-A-Backstop" plan is pretty much DOA. It will be either no deal or another extension.

The Tories just put up an ad for a Tory MEP internship in Brussels that starts on November 1st (https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1178645480659705857), so it seems like the behind-the-scenes presumption is that BoJo's gonna take the plunge &, as mandated by law, request the extension that he so desperately wants to not request.

Funnily enough, this reminds me of when the Tories were officially saying that they wouldn't hold the EU elections whilst simultaneously sending word out behind-the-scenes to their constituency associations to tell them to prepare for the EU elections.

AYY LMAO


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 02, 2019, 03:58:04 PM
It's for the political group that the Tories are in there. Not quite the same thing.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: IceAgeComing on October 03, 2019, 03:46:42 AM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

Even if its unusual for the Humble Address process to be used in this way: if the Prime Minister both loses the vote on the Queens Speech (traditionally a matter of confidence although not officially one under the Fixed Term Parliament Act since its a terribly flawed piece of legislation) and Parliament passes a Humble Address basically saying "we want xxx to be Prime Minister" then the impact of that would be to basically say that Parliament has confidence in someone else.

Besides Parliament explicitly has the power to remove a Prime Minister: I imagine that this is all coupled with a FTPA-compliant Confidence Vote; and if one of those passes plus a Humble Address saying "we would like Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister" or whoever they choose then the Prime Minister constitutionally has no choice but to go to the Palace to tender his resignation.  The executive serves at the will of Parliament and if Parliament elects to request that someone else takes control then that is the power that they have.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 03, 2019, 04:02:18 AM
If the Spartans and the DUP are saying something's a compromise, you can be pretty sure it's not actually a compromise.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 03, 2019, 09:45:36 AM
Lol So asking the queen to progue parliament is unconstitutional but asking the queen to topple a PM isnt


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/johnson-s-foes-plot-a-humble-attempt-to-oust-him-as-premier

Even if its unusual for the Humble Address process to be used in this way: if the Prime Minister both loses the vote on the Queens Speech (traditionally a matter of confidence although not officially one under the Fixed Term Parliament Act since its a terribly flawed piece of legislation) and Parliament passes a Humble Address basically saying "we want xxx to be Prime Minister" then the impact of that would be to basically say that Parliament has confidence in someone else.

Besides Parliament explicitly has the power to remove a Prime Minister: I imagine that this is all coupled with a FTPA-compliant Confidence Vote; and if one of those passes plus a Humble Address saying "we would like Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister" or whoever they choose then the Prime Minister constitutionally has no choice but to go to the Palace to tender his resignation.  The executive serves at the will of Parliament and if Parliament elects to request that someone else takes control then that is the power that they have.

LOL good luck trying to convince OSR that parliamentary-based executive power is actually how things sometimes work outside of the U.S.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Coastal Elitist on October 04, 2019, 06:18:12 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 04, 2019, 06:18:48 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

Yes, a single member can veto it.

Which, I would be for if I actually didn't feel bad for the British people (both Leavers and Remainers).

Some parts of their political system are so insanely rotten, which is pretty clear from the way their politicians have handled Brexit. (Not that they don't do some other things better than Europe)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 04, 2019, 06:23:50 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

Yes, a veto would only require one of the EU27 countries as the agreement to extend must be unanimous. But no country in their right mind would do so, however, as it wouldn't be in their interests.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 04, 2019, 06:27:36 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

I hope they veto it at this point I support Hard Brexit over no Brexit which is what I think other side really wants.





Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 04, 2019, 06:55:54 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

I hope they veto it at this point I support Hard Brexit over no Brexit which is what I think other side really wants.

For the umpteenth time: a 👏 Hard 👏 Brexit 👏 would 👏 be 👏 horrific 👏 for 👏 the 👏 UK!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on October 04, 2019, 06:58:13 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

I hope they veto it at this point I support Hard Brexit over no Brexit which is what I think other side really wants.

For the umpteenth time: a 👏 Hard 👏 Brexit 👏 would 👏 be 👏 horrific 👏 for 👏 the 👏 UK!

It helps to support the Hard Brexit if you'll be thousands of miles away from the nightmare happening after that.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 04, 2019, 07:53:29 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

I hope they veto it at this point I support Hard Brexit over no Brexit which is what I think other side really wants.

For the umpteenth time: a 👏 Hard 👏 Brexit 👏 would 👏 be 👏 horrific 👏 for 👏 the 👏 UK!

It helps to support the Hard Brexit if you'll be thousands of miles away from the nightmare happening after that.

To be honest I wished someone would veto them as I wanted Europe to get on with other things, but more recently I have changed my position, as the people of Britain (both "deal Leavers" and Remainers) don't deserve to pay for the incompetence of their Leaders and the shortfalls of their political system.

I also doubt 50+% want no deal, so it would be kinda cruel.

However, I would like to see a "Deal - No Deal" Referendum.

The 1st one was held, and the question was answered, the second one would just make things much clearer.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 04, 2019, 08:06:25 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

I hope they veto it at this point I support Hard Brexit over no Brexit which is what I think other side really wants.

For the umpteenth time: a 👏 Hard 👏 Brexit 👏 would 👏 be 👏 horrific 👏 for 👏 the 👏 UK!


Then would you support a referendum between these two options : The May Deal or Hard Brexit .


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 04, 2019, 08:08:23 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

I hope they veto it at this point I support Hard Brexit over no Brexit which is what I think other side really wants.

For the umpteenth time: a 👏 Hard 👏 Brexit 👏 would 👏 be 👏 horrific 👏 for 👏 the 👏 UK!

It helps to support the Hard Brexit if you'll be thousands of miles away from the nightmare happening after that.


I have a cousin who lives there and my dad has a sister who lives there(My dad’s position on the issue is even more pro Brexit than mine)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 04, 2019, 08:19:34 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

I hope they veto it at this point I support Hard Brexit over no Brexit which is what I think other side really wants.

For the umpteenth time: a 👏 Hard 👏 Brexit 👏 would 👏 be 👏 horrific 👏 for 👏 the 👏 UK!


Then would you support a referendum between these two options : The May Deal or Hard Brexit .

I don't see why my personal views on the subject (as an uninvolved American) are at all relevant but since you're asking, sure. The people already voted for Brexit, so democratically speaking, at least this would let the people dictate the kind of Brexit they get. They'd be stupid to go for a hard Brexit over a deal, but hey, that's their prerogative.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 04, 2019, 10:22:31 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

I hope they veto it at this point I support Hard Brexit over no Brexit which is what I think other side really wants.

For the umpteenth time: a 👏 Hard 👏 Brexit 👏 would 👏 be 👏 horrific 👏 for 👏 the 👏 UK!


Then would you support a referendum between these two options : The May Deal or Hard Brexit .

That option wouldn't solve the issue. Remain is likely more popular than either option, and indeed if Remain had run against any specific Brexit option it probably would have won, but as Brexit was never clearly defined people imagined Leave as having the sovereignty restoration of Hard Brexit while having the economic stability of a softer Brexit (rather than May's deal like the Norway option or Labour's plan). No deal was not a viable option for Brexit in 2016, and it in particular has no mandate and goes against what the Leave campaign promised, so it can't be reasonably argued that no deal is the confirmed will of the people. Brexit was never clearly defined, and so there is no mandate for any particular Brexit option, and no matter what the option many people will feel it is illegitimate. In addition, many of the promises of the Leave campaign now don't match with reality, it would be undemocratic for people to have to go through with Brexit if they've changed their minds, this is a high possibility. So Remain has to be an option on the ballot paper.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 05, 2019, 05:16:19 PM
No A50 extension won’t mean a ‘hard brexit’- it means a no-Deal Brexit, which means all 500 transitional arrangements, agreements and procedures are gone. As I’ve posted many times this will mean the police will lose key tools to catch criminals, ports will face delays, prices will go and etc.

God knows what will happen to people reliant on food banks, or any govt services when the whole of Whitehall will be focused on keeping medicine coming. God knows what happens if there’s a huge flood, a NHS winter crisis or any other event which needs govt response..

Besides, TMs Deal is a hard Brexit. A hard Brexit is any form of Brexit that is not soff- e.g full membership of Customs & single market.

It’s laughable that brexiteers have more from Norway, to Mays Deal, to ‘bin the backstop’ to ‘no deal’. It’s like going from a Porsche to a space hopper.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on October 05, 2019, 05:39:35 PM
European Research Group's chair said that if the UK is still in the EU after 1 November and thus has to nominate an EU Commissioner then that Commissioner should be Nigel Farage.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 05, 2019, 05:54:58 PM
Can any EU country veto a brexit extension?

Yes, a veto would only require one of the EU27 countries as the agreement to extend must be unanimous. But no country in their right mind would do so, however, as it wouldn't be in their interests.

For what's worth Macron has sometimes threatened to veto an extension, but I seriously doubt he would actually do so if it really comes down to it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 05, 2019, 06:00:12 PM
European Research Group's chair said that if the UK is still in the EU after 1 November and thus has to nominate an EU Commissioner then that Commissioner should be Nigel Farage.

Thanks for that, we could do with a laugh.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 05, 2019, 06:44:57 PM
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1186839/brexit-news-boris-johnson-hungary-viktor-orban-nigel-farage-dominic-grieve-no-deal

Hungary angle again.  I think a better EU country for Johnson to bribe would be Malta.  Something like a promise of a naval base in return for a veto.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 05, 2019, 07:20:18 PM
No small EU country will veto an extension for the UK, its simply not in their long term interests to do so.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 06, 2019, 12:28:15 AM
No small EU country will veto an extension for the UK, its simply not in their long term interests to do so.

This is why Hungary (let alone any EU27 country) shooting themselves in the foot because Boris batted his pretty eyelashes at them has always been a huge stretch for my credibility. Just think of it from Hungary's point of view: risk alienating themselves amongst the trading bloc they're a relatively small member of, or risk basically nothing by not backing a country leaving said bloc who are going to be politically & economically weaker after they leave. They have nothing to gain & a lot to lose.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 06, 2019, 02:21:46 AM
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1186839/brexit-news-boris-johnson-hungary-viktor-orban-nigel-farage-dominic-grieve-no-deal

Hungary angle again.  I think a better EU country for Johnson to bribe would be Malta.  Something like a promise of a naval base in return for a veto.

It’s worth remembering  the current Brexit argument (the Irish border) is solely about the EU protecting it’s smaller nation states; Malta or Hungary aren’t going to through the EU under a bus for a government with no parliamentary majority.

What good is a naval base for Malta? It’s like me hospitalising my dad in exchange for a motorbike (I cant drive)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on October 06, 2019, 03:42:24 AM
Yes, the idea of any of the EU-27 vetoing a British extension request is laughable, though it's pretty par for the course given the litany of other pipe dreams Leave supporters have told themselves and everyone else for the past 4 years.

What I find fascinating is how the request for *Hungary* to veto the extension is always brought up. As noted above, the UK has stronger historical and economic ties to smaller, so presumably more persuadable countries, like Malta (other candidates might include Portugal and Poland, though the latter isn't smaller than Hungary). To me, it shows how closely current anti-EU/Leaver thinking is tied up with the populist/authoritarian delirium of the past few years. It's less rooted in older, deeper, and more durable traditions of British politics and diplomacy. That kinda gives me hope :P


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: IceAgeComing on October 06, 2019, 04:26:32 AM
The "Farage should become a Commissioner" thing shows inherently the ignorance that a lot of people have with how the Commission is appointed and runs.

We can assume I think that the proposed new College will be approved in some point by the time an extension would be agreed: and in the short term Julian King would likely hang around for a while until the next UK Commissioner is appointed.  King was inherently given a position (Security Union) that is inherently one that's a little fake with the plan always being to meld that back into the 27 other portfolios on Brexit: an initial bit of sensible early planning to make the process easier for the Union.  So there isn't this hurry for the UK to appoint someone else: King seems perfectly content on the Commission; its a job he never expected to have for this long and he seems to enjoy it so I doubt that he'd resign to force a change.

The second thing is that the European Parliament has to approve a new Commissioner separately that's appointed outwith the official cycle.  And there's basically no chance that Farage in particular would get through this: the first stage is a check for financial conflicts of interests and financial issues has been an issue for Farage in Brussels for a long time so I think he'd fall there: if not then whatever minor powerful portfolio he'd be given (we'll get back to this) would dictate which of the Parliamentary committees would have to question and approve him and he's spent the best part of 20 years pissing off everyone in the European Parliament so good luck with that one.  If he manages to get through THAT then its a vote of the collective parliament and, well, I think we know how that ends.  The Commissioner candidate also has to be approved by the Commission President and von den Leyen isn't going to be rushing to have the guy in her Commission.  So basically from that stand point by itself the idea is a non-starter.

Even if we ignore the inherent problems there are with appointing him: people seem to think that the Commission is something that he could come in and intentionally  around with to force Brexit or something.  The Commission sort of runs like a mixture of a government and the senior civil service: decisions are sometimes collectively made (with the President leading things naturally) but each Commissioner has a portfolio that they are responsible for: not just for major policy issues but also some very boring things like Directorates-General structure and things like this.  These portfolio's are given out by the Commission President, much in the same way that a Prime Minister will dole out Cabinet positions.  Its in the power of the Commission President to refuse to give a portfolio to a Commissioner effectively making them not overly powerful within the Commission; especially if the other Commissioners basically agree to sideline them.  So Farage being a Commissioner would be an awkward nuisance but would hardly be something that the EU would be overly worried about.

Same thing with the proposed messing with the EU Budget: the old Budget would roll over and they'd probably just deal with it post-Brexit: not a massive worry but a little annoying.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on October 06, 2019, 08:03:50 AM
Tbf re-a Maltese veto; it is well known that there are very few things Joseph Muscat won't do if the price is right.

Maybe just stay away from cars for the next few years afterwards...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 06, 2019, 04:45:29 PM
Wonder if Lib Dems will overtake Labour and be the next non-Tory government?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 06, 2019, 05:19:20 PM
https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

Quote
The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 06, 2019, 05:36:36 PM
https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

Quote
The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.

This article is paywalled.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 06, 2019, 05:42:49 PM
https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

Quote
The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.

This article is paywalled.

Quote
To dismiss a prime minister and his or her government on the monarch's own authority. This was last done in Britain in 1834 by King William IV.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_power


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 06, 2019, 05:50:21 PM
https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

Quote
The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.

This article is paywalled.

Quote
To dismiss a prime minister and his or her government on the monarch's own authority. This was last done in Britain in 1834 by King William IV.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_power

Okay, yes, the Queen can't willy-nilly decide to dismiss BoJo. But nobody's been suggesting that. A potential dismissal will only come into play if it's been made clear that BoJo no longer has (& somebody else has gained) the confidence of a majority of the Commons. And yes, in that instance, the Queen would have a duty to dismiss, let alone the ability to do so.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 06, 2019, 06:20:47 PM
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1186839/brexit-news-boris-johnson-hungary-viktor-orban-nigel-farage-dominic-grieve-no-deal

Hungary angle again.  I think a better EU country for Johnson to bribe would be Malta.  Something like a promise of a naval base in return for a veto.

 Probably too late to respect the results of the 1956 referendum on our end.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2019, 06:56:10 PM
Okay, yes, the Queen can't willy-nilly decide to dismiss BoJo.

Not correct, she can. But it would be extraordinarily messy. Important to note, of course, that the present government does not have a majority in the Commons.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: KaiserDave on October 06, 2019, 07:39:54 PM
% that Elizabeth dissolves Parliament?

I know it's an absurd statement, but cmon, look around.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 06, 2019, 08:01:15 PM
% that Elizabeth dissolves Parliament?

I know it's an absurd statement, but cmon, look around.

Literally 0%, as the dissolution of Parliament is no longer part of the Royal Prerogative.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 07, 2019, 08:38:21 AM
Stephen Hepburn (Jarrow) has been suspended from Labour over a sexual harassment allegation.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 07, 2019, 08:45:57 AM
As with a few other MPs who have been the subject of such allegations, there have been rumours about him for a while. Of course his neighbouring S Tyneside member is in bother of her own.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: UncleSam on October 07, 2019, 09:36:40 AM
LOL Boris Johnson is not going to be removed by the queen, how absurd.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 07, 2019, 10:06:59 AM
LOL Boris Johnson is not going to be removed by the queen, how absurd.

Again, yes, the Queen won't willy-nilly dismiss BoJo. But nobody is suggesting that. A potential dismissal will only come into play if it's been made clear that BoJo no longer has (& somebody else has gained) the confidence of a majority of the Commons. And yes, in that instance, the Queen would have a duty to dismiss, let alone the ability to do so.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 07, 2019, 10:57:22 AM
As with a few other MPs who have been the subject of such allegations, there have been rumours about him for a while. Of course his neighbouring S Tyneside member is in bother of her own.

Not even just rumours: there were local press stories that were not shot down with litigation. The accusations do appear to be more serious than some of the others. Of course it isn't just MPs and would-be MPs that there have been complaints about...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 07, 2019, 12:09:05 PM
Stephen Hepburn (Jarrow) has been suspended from Labour over a sexual harassment allegation.

I was looking into the electoral history for Jarrow, and does anyone know why the Irish Parliamentary Party was standing there in the 1907 by-election? They got a non-derisory result, too.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 07, 2019, 03:18:34 PM
Heidi Allen has joined the Lib Dems.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on October 07, 2019, 05:32:29 PM
Saw the following which completely explains Brexit in my opinion:


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: IceAgeComing on October 08, 2019, 07:57:15 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/2d8aee46-e42f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

Quote
The last time a British prime minister was dismissed was in 1834, when William IV dismissed Lord Melbourne.

Looks like I was right when I said Queen firing Boris is different from a VONC taking him down.

Here’s a fundamental issue: Parliament cannot outright kick out a Prime Minister.  It can pass a Vote of No Confidence in the Prime Minister and if in two weeks it hasn’t passed a Vote of Confidence the an election will happen.  The expectation is that in a case like this the incumbent Prime Minister would resign and the new one would come in in plenty of time.  The fundamental issue is that no one thinks the Prime Minister would resign even if Parliament has someone that would pass a confidence vote so it puts the Palace in a sticky position where it either has to remain idle and effectively demonstrate that the government can just force an election on a majority vote or assert itself to upload the principles of the FTPA but also enter the sphere of politics.  Basically the law is terrible and should have been drafted better.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on October 08, 2019, 08:19:28 AM
Johnson and Merkel discussed the proposed "deal" in a telephone call and it seems it was an utter disaster.

The Government appears to be pretending to want a deal still, but with the blame game having already started I have to wonder when they will formally announce they'll go with No Deal and whether the Opposition will get its act together to go with a VONC.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on October 08, 2019, 08:48:35 AM
I like it when Dominic Cummings gets drunk and briefs to journalists whatever hard-sounding nonsense that comes into his head and they run with it as a massive bombshell story.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 08, 2019, 09:12:13 AM
Johnson says a deal with the EU is impossible? Sounds like he's in over his head. Maybe Johnson should let Trump have a crack at it... he only makes the best deals!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 08, 2019, 09:32:37 AM
Johnson and Merkel discussed the proposed "deal" in a telephone call and it seems it was an utter disaster.

The Government appears to be pretending to want a deal still, but with the blame game having already started I have to wonder when they will formally announce they'll go with No Deal and whether the Opposition will get its act together to go with a VONC.

Simply not legally possible on Oct 31 at least, it is amazing how many still refuse to accept this. Without a deal they will now be forced to extend A50, the line will become "that was the fault of everybody else, not us".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 08, 2019, 10:39:39 AM
One of the things this mess has taught is the astonishing level of constitutional and legal ignorance on the part of political journalists and many actual politicians in this country. No, it is not permitted for the government of the day to simply ignore the law. Yes, there will be consequences if that happens. No, the government of the day does not have the right or even the capacity to override any such consequences.

A common talking point has been that the problem at present is largely constitutional in nature; that it reflects a broken constitutional system. While there are a few issues there, that argument is nonsense: this is not, not yet, a constitutional crisis. It is a political crisis, caused primarily by reckless, stupid and stupidly reckless behaviour from politicians and their advisors.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 08, 2019, 10:46:31 AM
Johnson and Merkel discussed the proposed "deal" in a telephone call and it seems it was an utter disaster.

The Government appears to be pretending to want a deal still, but with the blame game having already started I have to wonder when they will formally announce they'll go with No Deal and whether the Opposition will get its act together to go with a VONC.

Simply not legally possible on Oct 31 at least, it is amazing how many still refuse to accept this. Without a deal they will now be forced to extend A50, the line will become "that was the fault of everybody else, not us".

Yeah, the Benn Act still very much requires the government to ask for an extension if no deal is agreed by October 19th. If BoJo wants to get around that without resigning, then he has to break the law. And if he does that, then not only will he end up in court, but there are still other legal means available to ask for an extension anyway.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 08, 2019, 03:22:12 PM
if Boris asks for an extension, he'll claim Remainers forced him to do so.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 08, 2019, 03:37:45 PM
if Boris asks for an extension, he'll claim Remainers forced him to do so.

Remainers ate Johnson's homework.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Kingpoleon on October 09, 2019, 11:58:08 AM
In the case of a caretaker government, would Labour ever discuss choosing someone besides Corbyn as the caretaker PM?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2019, 02:11:05 PM
In the case of a caretaker government, would Labour ever discuss choosing someone besides Corbyn as the caretaker PM?

They should be open to that. It would be idiotic and suicidal not to (then again, it's the Labour Party we're talking about...).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 09, 2019, 02:51:39 PM
In the case of a caretaker government, would Labour ever discuss choosing someone besides Corbyn as the caretaker PM?

Well, that's the $64,000 question, now isn't it?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on October 09, 2019, 02:56:24 PM
Does the question about a caretaker PM even matter any longer? Wasn't the entire point of a caretaker government that it would ask for an extension and then call new elections, which the Benn Act has solved anyway?

The problem is that even if Labour, LibDems, the expelled Tories, SNP, Greens and Plaid all manage to agree on a PM, it seems almost impossible that they would agree on a common Brexit line, so a government would have to have a very clear and easily implemented objective that can keep them together for a short while until a new election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Kingpoleon on October 09, 2019, 03:10:52 PM
In the case of a caretaker government, would Labour ever discuss choosing someone besides Corbyn as the caretaker PM?

They should be open to that. It would be idiotic and suicidal not to (then again, it's the Labour Party we're talking about...).
The Lib Dems, SNP, the Conservative rebels, and basically every other non-Labour/Conservative group have repeatedly said they don’t care that the leader is necessarily from their own party, and Jo Swinson actually suggested Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman. But literally just last weekend, John McDonnell said, “We’ll never accept an interim government without Jeremy Corbyn as PM.”

So, I guess my question is, do you guys think Corbyn is going to force the party to stand by him? Or will he cave and let Swinson or Clarke or Harman become the caretaker PM once the government falls apart?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zinneke on October 09, 2019, 04:09:33 PM
One of the things this mess has taught is the astonishing level of constitutional and legal ignorance on the part of political journalists and many actual politicians in this country. No, it is not permitted for the government of the day to simply ignore the law. Yes, there will be consequences if that happens. No, the government of the day does not have the right or even the capacity to override any such consequences.

A common talking point has been that the problem at present is largely constitutional in nature; that it reflects a broken constitutional system. While there are a few issues there, that argument is nonsense: this is not, not yet, a constitutional crisis. It is a political crisis, caused primarily by reckless, stupid and stupidly reckless behaviour from politicians and their advisors.

Next question is : can you blame the politicians and political journalists? Or do you really want a political class entirely populated by lawyers?
This also has to do with the fact that the constitutional fabric itself amounts to a bunch of post-its on key legislations and century year old rulings...still think the exit from the EU is a great opportunity for UK to modernise its constitution (including electoral system).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 09, 2019, 04:27:12 PM
The point re the "GNU" discussions is that Swinson is (not for the first time) arguing in pretty transparent bad faith - a major reason why Corbyn "doesn't have the numbers" is because she has vetoed the LibDems supporting him, whilst demanding that he "steps aside" for some still ill-defined "grandee" ignores that as the leader of easily the second biggest party in the Commons he is *constitutionally entitled* to have the next go at forming a government were PM Johnson to be VONCed. She is making that demand because she doesn't want her party put on the spot (backing JC likely won't help them in the Tory leaning seats they are targeting at the coming GE, but not doing so could quite possibly lose support elsewhere) and is maybe getting carried away with their present good poll ratings and forgetting the parliamentary party is (even after recent defections) a poor fourth in HoC terms, still well behind the SNP. There are actually limits to how much they can throw their weight around.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on October 09, 2019, 04:27:48 PM
One of the things this mess has taught is the astonishing level of constitutional and legal ignorance on the part of political journalists and many actual politicians in this country. No, it is not permitted for the government of the day to simply ignore the law. Yes, there will be consequences if that happens. No, the government of the day does not have the right or even the capacity to override any such consequences.

A common talking point has been that the problem at present is largely constitutional in nature; that it reflects a broken constitutional system. While there are a few issues there, that argument is nonsense: this is not, not yet, a constitutional crisis. It is a political crisis, caused primarily by reckless, stupid and stupidly reckless behaviour from politicians and their advisors.

Quite frankly British politicians and even more so their 'Spads' seem to know very little about anything except hairbrained analogies to the United States which don't even make sense.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 09, 2019, 05:47:02 PM
The point re the "GNU" discussions is that Swinson is (not for the first time) arguing in pretty transparent bad faith - a major reason why Corbyn "doesn't have the numbers" is because she has vetoed the LibDems supporting him,

Even if every single Lib Dem backed Corbyn, the Tory rebels certainly wouldn't. That's been Swinson's argument from the start. It's not bad faith to recognize the reality that, even if he had Lib Dem support, Corbyn would still likely never command the support of a majority of the Commons as it stands.

whilst demanding that he "steps aside" for some still ill-defined "grandee" ignores that as the leader of easily the second biggest party in the Commons he is *constitutionally entitled* to have the next go at forming a government were PM Johnson to be VONCed.

There's no such constitutional precedent. After a VONC, anybody who can command the support of a majority of the Commons has the right to attempt to become PM, regardless of whether or not they're the LOTO.

She is making that demand because she doesn't want her party put on the spot (backing JC likely won't help them in the Tory leaning seats they are targeting at the coming GE, but not doing so could quite possibly lose support elsewhere) and is maybe getting carried away with their present good poll ratings

She is making that demand because she wants a GoNU plan that'll actually work. If anything, it's Corbyn's insistence that he should be PM which could very well end up enabling a no-deal Brexit in the end.

and forgetting the parliamentary party is (even after recent defections) a poor fourth in HoC terms, still well behind the SNP. There are actually limits to how much they can throw their weight around.

When you're fishing around the Commons for any vote you can get, a batch of 19 is very powerful. And in any event, it's not even as if she's suggesting that she herself should be the caretaker PM.

EDIT: 19, not 18.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 09, 2019, 06:13:13 PM
You are extremely trusting of Swinson - even gullibly so, some might say.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2019, 08:44:47 PM
The point re the "GNU" discussions is that Swinson is (not for the first time) arguing in pretty transparent bad faith - a major reason why Corbyn "doesn't have the numbers" is because she has vetoed the LibDems supporting him, whilst demanding that he "steps aside" for some still ill-defined "grandee" ignores that as the leader of easily the second biggest party in the Commons he is *constitutionally entitled* to have the next go at forming a government were PM Johnson to be VONCed. She is making that demand because she doesn't want her party put on the spot (backing JC likely won't help them in the Tory leaning seats they are targeting at the coming GE, but not doing so could quite possibly lose support elsewhere) and is maybe getting carried away with their present good poll ratings and forgetting the parliamentary party is (even after recent defections) a poor fourth in HoC terms, still well behind the SNP. There are actually limits to how much they can throw their weight around.

It makes perfect sense, in a coalition of highly heterogeneous parties, not to have any of the party leaders take the top spot, but instead to find a different candidate that isn't too objectionable to any of the coalition members. This might not be familiar to you because the UK hasn't had many coalitions (and where it has it was always on the basis of a two-party agreement), but at this point it's really time to stop thinking of Westminster as working according to the Westminster system, because the reality is that it just doesn't anymore.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 09, 2019, 09:58:57 PM
You are extremely trusting of Swinson - even gullibly so, some might say.

But apparently everyone should put their trust in Jeremy Corbyn.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 09, 2019, 10:03:17 PM
You are extremely trusting of Swinson - even gullibly so, some might say.

How is recognizing reality being "gullibly" trusting of Swinson?

With or without the Lib Dems, Corbyn doesn't have the numbers. 243 voting Labour MPs + 35 SNP + 4 PC + Caroline Lucas + Stephen Hepburn? puts him at 284. Even if you give him the Lib Dems' 19, that puts him at 303, & right now, you need at least 320 for a working majority, which means that even with Lib Dem support, he'd be 17 votes short. Swinson simply recognizes that Corbyn can't command a majority, so the parties need to find somebody who can.

And at this point, Corbyn should the decent thing & realize that too. Hell, help choose somebody from Labour (such as Margaret Beckett) if he wants. That could very well end up being the only way it'll work.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 10, 2019, 06:07:35 AM
Its a very partial interpretation of reality, which assumes only pure and good motives from her.

IMO it is actually a far more realistic reading of things to say she wants to avoid being put on the spot about making Corbyn a temporary PM (and, let's remember, for very likely just a matter of weeks) because *whatever* decision the LibDems make it will brown off some of their new found support.

Nobody has yet made a conclusive case that any of the other names banded around could actually win a majority of MPs if the actual leader of the opposition can't - its mere hand waving assertion and wishful thinking.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 10, 2019, 08:25:56 AM
Nobody has yet made a conclusive case that any of the other names banded around could actually win a majority of MPs if the actual leader of the opposition can't - its mere hand waving assertion and wishful thinking.

Now this is utter nonsense and totally disingenuous. It's really obvious that all of the names thrown out (Clarke, Harman, Beckett, even the hilarious suggestion of Bercow) would be able to command a majority - unless, of course, Jeremy Corbyn chose his own ego over supporting them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 10, 2019, 09:02:57 AM
Please explain how it is "obvious" given that a significant number of Labour MPs would be likely to oppose them?

Ah, didn't think of that did you. Its OK, we have long got used to centrist fantasists treating the left as non persons :)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: YL on October 10, 2019, 09:42:23 AM
Please explain how it is "obvious" given that a significant number of Labour MPs would be likely to oppose them?

If Corbyn agreed to support them (which I think was the premise)?  In those circumstances would any Labour MPs oppose other than Hoey and perhaps Stringer?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 10, 2019, 11:38:09 AM
This is a completely pointless argument over a scenario which will never come to play.

It is politically untenable for Labour to accept anyone other than Corbyn as PM. They'd basically be admitting 'our man isn't good enough', and while everyone knows that he isn't good enough, they can't just come out and say it. It would be politically disastrous and basically inviting what remaining voters Labour has to find alternatives. Thus Labour won't accept an alternative.

It is politically untenable for the Liberal Democrats to accept Corbyn as PM. The two main groups of voters that are behind the Lib Dem surge are remainer former Labour voters who hate Corbyn and his Brexit stance, and former Tory voters who have been alienated by Boris but would never vote Labour in a million years. While supporting Corbyn for PM wouldn't be popular with either group, it would particularly alienate the latter who are far more important than the former in terms of getting the LDs more seats. Thus the Lib Dems won't accept Corbyn.

Both parties are making an exceptionally reasonable stance purely based on what is best for them electorally and neither of them are going to budge if the other shouts louder (or in the case of Corbynites, throw a tantrum on Twitter). Thus the 'caretaker PM' is never going to happen and the next change of PM will be after an election or when the Tory party loses confidence in Boris. Discussion otherwise is academic until the next big thing happens.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 10, 2019, 11:42:56 AM
Its a very partial interpretation of reality, which assumes only pure and good motives from her.

IMO it is actually a far more realistic reading of things to say she wants to avoid being put on the spot about making Corbyn a temporary PM (and, let's remember, for very likely just a matter of weeks) because *whatever* decision the LibDems make it will brown off some of their new found support.

Nobody has yet made a conclusive case that any of the other names banded around could actually win a majority of MPs if the actual leader of the opposition can't - its mere hand waving assertion and wishful thinking.

Numbers aren't partial. Numbers are numbers.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 10, 2019, 11:56:26 AM
It is politically untenable for Labour to accept anyone other than Corbyn as PM. They'd basically be admitting 'our man isn't good enough', and while everyone knows that he isn't good enough, they can't just come out and say it. It would be politically disastrous and basically inviting what remaining voters Labour has to find alternatives. Thus Labour won't accept an alternative.

All they would be admitting is that Corbyn isn't acceptable to Tory defectors, which is a no brainer.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: vileplume on October 10, 2019, 01:05:42 PM
The point re the "GNU" discussions is that Swinson is (not for the first time) arguing in pretty transparent bad faith - a major reason why Corbyn "doesn't have the numbers" is because she has vetoed the LibDems supporting him, whilst demanding that he "steps aside" for some still ill-defined "grandee" ignores that as the leader of easily the second biggest party in the Commons he is *constitutionally entitled* to have the next go at forming a government were PM Johnson to be VONCed. She is making that demand because she doesn't want her party put on the spot (backing JC likely won't help them in the Tory leaning seats they are targeting at the coming GE, but not doing so could quite possibly lose support elsewhere) and is maybe getting carried away with their present good poll ratings and forgetting the parliamentary party is (even after recent defections) a poor fourth in HoC terms, still well behind the SNP. There are actually limits to how much they can throw their weight around.

It would be political suicide for the Lib Dems to back Corbyn even in the slightest seen as most of their target seats are Tory held and broadly on the centre-right. If there's one thing that disillusioned Tory Remainers hate more than Brexit, it's Jeremy Corbyn. Plus Swinson herself is from the 'Orange Booker' (right leaning) wing of the Lib Dems so I'm not sure why anyone in their right mind would expect her to facilitate a hard left PM. She's put forward alternatives, e.g. Clarke, Harman who would be more 'unifying' figures particularly given their length of service, and is genuinely trying to find a compromise but Labour is refusing to budge. Presumably this is because the masterminds behind the Corbyn project (e.g. the notoriously anti-EU Seumas Milne) have calculated that Labour won't get the blame if Britain crashes out of the EU so they have literally no incentive to compromise.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 10, 2019, 01:51:01 PM
But my point is that whilst centrist "grandees" might be more "acceptable" to LibDems, that doesn't mean they are more acceptable to EVERYBODY. As too many on here seem to assume.

I can actually see the reasoning why Swinson and her supporters don't want to back Corbyn. My point is that others have different perspectives, which are no less valid because centrists don't agree with them.

Indeed, given that there is a strong argument that Corbyn/Brexit/Trump are ultimately all down to the failure of "third way" centrism, a bit more humility and understanding from them on occasion might not go amiss ;)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 10, 2019, 01:57:44 PM
"Third way centrism" only failed because of a conservative instigated recession.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 10, 2019, 02:00:39 PM
"Third way centrism" only failed because of a conservative instigated recession.

And also because Tony Blair wasn't a quarter as clever as he thought he was


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2019, 02:06:21 PM
These arguments for Corbyn to be PM just don't make any sense. Look, you know I'm far from reflexively anti-Corbyn (although I despise his antisemitism, as any morally serious leftist should). But this is just not how coalitions work. Just because you're the biggest party in the coalition, you don't get to dictate who gets to be PM, especially when that person is toxic for your partner. I have no sympathy for Jo Swinson but she has every right to say no to Corbyn, and if Corbyn refuses a compromise name, then it will be his fault if BoJo finds a way to crash out.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2019, 02:09:06 PM
But my point is that whilst centrist "grandees" might be more "acceptable" to LibDems, that doesn't mean they are more acceptable to EVERYBODY. As too many on here seem to assume.

A center-left Labourite can't be as objectionable to Labour as a hard-left Labourite would be to the LibDems. Come on now.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 10, 2019, 02:24:41 PM
But my point is that whilst centrist "grandees" might be more "acceptable" to LibDems, that doesn't mean they are more acceptable to EVERYBODY. As too many on here seem to assume.

A center-left Labourite can't be as objectionable to Labour as a hard-left Labourite would be to the LibDems. Come on now.

mArGaReT bEcKeTt Is A wAr CrImInAl


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: vileplume on October 10, 2019, 03:10:29 PM
But my point is that whilst centrist "grandees" might be more "acceptable" to LibDems, that doesn't mean they are more acceptable to EVERYBODY. As too many on here seem to assume.

I can actually see the reasoning why Swinson and her supporters don't want to back Corbyn. My point is that others have different perspectives, which are no less valid because centrists don't agree with them.

Indeed, given that there is a strong argument that Corbyn/Brexit/Trump are ultimately all down to the failure of "third way" centrism, a bit more humility and understanding from them on occasion might not go amiss ;)

Yes but Swinson and the Lib Dems are trying to compromise, Corbyn is not. You could literally pull the name of a Labour MP out of a hat and chances are that person would be perfectly acceptable to the Lib Dems as an interim PM (only the small number of Labour Brexiteers or Corbyn and his clique wouldn't be). If Corbyn was interested in stopping Johnson he'd put the name of a Labour MP forward to be interim PM, presumably one whose career is virtually over and has no future ambitions, and end this whole farce of a government now. As it is he is stubbornly refusing to budge from the 'Lib Dems and rebel Tories must make me and only me PM' despite knowing they are never going to do this as they fundamentally oppose everything he stands for and with his atrocious approval ratings it would be utterly toxic for them to associate with him. Thus I must come to the conclusion that the Labour leadership are less interested in stopping No Deal than they are in prematurely deflecting the blame from themselves should it happen, presumably under the assumption that the fallout from a No Deal crash out would win them the ensuing election.

As for the last point, I would generally agree with that. However that's not an argument to make Corbyn PM. Imagine if America had a parliamentary system and Clinton was PM and, I don't know, was on the verge of invading Syria, horrifying sections of the Democratic Party. I'm sure you wouldn't expect Democratic Party rebels to agree to put opposition leader Trump in charge to stop the invasion (assuming he'd take the anti-Hillary position) now would you?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 10, 2019, 04:06:08 PM
But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 10, 2019, 04:10:22 PM
It may be unfair, but Corbyn having to make way for a caretaker PM would likely be damaging to him in a general election, which is much more important. If Boris Johnson wins a majority in the general election, all this maneuvering is pointless, and he can only be denied a majority if the Labour Party is competitive and a viable alternative government.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 10, 2019, 05:09:25 PM
But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

Considering the left governing by themselves isn't an option, yes.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 10, 2019, 05:59:50 PM
But my point is that whilst centrist "grandees" might be more "acceptable" to LibDems, that doesn't mean they are more acceptable to EVERYBODY. As too many on here seem to assume.

A center-left Labourite can't be as objectionable to Labour as a hard-left Labourite would be to the LibDems. Come on now.

mArGaReT bEcKeTt Is A wAr CrImInAl

Like straw men, do we?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 10, 2019, 06:18:20 PM
But my point is that whilst centrist "grandees" might be more "acceptable" to LibDems, that doesn't mean they are more acceptable to EVERYBODY. As too many on here seem to assume.

A center-left Labourite can't be as objectionable to Labour as a hard-left Labourite would be to the LibDems. Come on now.

mArGaReT bEcKeTt Is A wAr CrImInAl

Like straw men, do we?

No. A straw-man argument is when somebody creates an argument that you didn't make in order to defeat it. This represents, & is just, a freaking joke. God forbid some funny commentary isn't allowed on Atlas.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 10, 2019, 06:29:41 PM
Should have put a smiley on the end of it, then :)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: vileplume on October 10, 2019, 07:59:29 PM
But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

She is under no obligation to put a Labour PM in at all but nevertheless she has basically offered to throw the Tories out of power and put in a Labour PM and a presumably a Labour dominated cabinet with the one minor caveat that the leader of said government is not the extremely unpopular, hard left Corbyn. Any Labour party genuinely motivated by stopping No Deal would be biting her hand off.

And as brucejoel99 correctly says the left don't have anywhere near a majority of MPs in this parliament, so yes, they do indeed have to make concessions to the centre if they want to get anywhere. It's basic arithmetic I'm afraid.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2019, 10:19:04 PM
But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

If Labour had a majority, Corbyn would be PM.

If the LibDems had a majority, Swinson would be PM.

Neither has a majority, so neither will be PM. Who does become PM will require a negotiation (one where Labour obviously has more bargaining power). It's really not that hard to understand if you stop being a hack for five minutes.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 11, 2019, 03:48:50 AM
But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

If Labour had a majority, Corbyn would be PM.

If the LibDems had a majority, Swinson would be PM.

Neither has a majority, so neither will be PM. Who does become PM will require a negotiation (one where Labour obviously has more bargaining power). It's really not that hard to understand if you stop being a hack for five minutes.

David Cameron didn't have a majority and he became PM. Theresa May didn't have a majority and she became PM. And furthermore, every election in my country since 1996 has been a hung parliament, and never once did one party get to dictate to another who its leader and who the Prime Minister was.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 11, 2019, 05:30:42 AM
Cameron got a small majority in 2015 - how easily we forget ;)

But your wider point remains valid. It was said upthread that Swinson has "no obligation" to support Corbyn as PM - of course not. But the point is, nobody else is "obliged" to give her what she wants either.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: vileplume on October 11, 2019, 12:24:45 PM
But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

If Labour had a majority, Corbyn would be PM.

If the LibDems had a majority, Swinson would be PM.

Neither has a majority, so neither will be PM. Who does become PM will require a negotiation (one where Labour obviously has more bargaining power). It's really not that hard to understand if you stop being a hack for five minutes.

David Cameron didn't have a majority and he became PM. Theresa May didn't have a majority and she became PM. And furthermore, every election in my country since 1996 has been a hung parliament, and never once did one party get to dictate to another who its leader and who the Prime Minister was.

Well that's because Cameron and May could control the confidence of the commons by being acceptable enough to third parties (the Lib Dems and the DUP respectively). Corbyn on the other hand is totally unacceptable to everyone from the centre or centre-right and thus cannot control the confidence of the commons and therefore cannot be PM with this parliament. Swinson has put forward workable alternatives which Labour has pigheadedly chosen to turn down.

Also whilst it is true the Lib Dems, or any other party for that matter, has no business in dictating who the Labour leader is, they are, like it or not, at present in a strong position to influence who gets to become PM. Third parties exerting influence in this way is not an unheard of concept either. If Labour had won enough seats in 2010 that a Lab-Lib coalition was possible the Lib Dem's price for any deal would've been Gordon Brown's resignation as PM, whether he stayed Labour leader or not would've been irrelevant as that is internal Labour Party business.

There is nothing saying the leader of the ruling party has to be PM, it can be anyone that control the confidence of the commons. Whilst it is true that having a Labour government led by someone other than the Labour leader would be very dysfunctional long term, the particular arrangement that the Lib Dems are suggesting would be for a matter of weeks and only to achieve one specific goal so this wouldn't be an issue at all.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2019, 12:25:34 PM
Well, Clegg and Foster were obviously more pliable coalition partners than Swinson. I'm not sure if a Labourite wants to defend them as exemplary coalition partners, though. ::)

No one is "obliged" to do anything here, but if Labour actually cared about stopping Bojo's shenanigans, it would accept to indicate someone else, from within its own ranks who could be an acceptable PM for all potential partners in the rebel alliance.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 11, 2019, 02:26:47 PM
But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

If Labour had a majority, Corbyn would be PM.

If the LibDems had a majority, Swinson would be PM.

Neither has a majority, so neither will be PM. Who does become PM will require a negotiation (one where Labour obviously has more bargaining power). It's really not that hard to understand if you stop being a hack for five minutes.

David Cameron didn't have a majority and he became PM. Theresa May didn't have a majority and she became PM. And furthermore, every election in my country since 1996 has been a hung parliament, and never once did one party get to dictate to another who its leader and who the Prime Minister was.

Funnily enough, this is exactly what happens in Italy much of the time. Conte being PM but not being the leader of Five Star, Lega, or the Democrats; Gentilioni being PM but not being the leader of the Democrats; ditto for Letta; Monti not being PM whilst not being the leader of any party; etc.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 11, 2019, 08:27:07 PM
Just something to lighten up the mood a bit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaA-rBjFidM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 12, 2019, 01:01:04 PM
Very surprised to see people miss the key point; the only thing that matters in terms of a caretaker is who has a majority. Doesn't matter if they're party leader, universally popular or the only way to stop no deal.... you still need Philip Hammond, John Woodcock and Sylvia Hermon to vote for a confidence motion.

It's a quirk of our system that we've yet to have a constitutional struggle with two people trying to get into No.10 in a hung parliament- in this situation the only thing that matters is getting a majority of MPs. We're the first parliament in a long time to have so many independents- a large chunk of who actively despise their leadership. Add in the number of retiring MPs, the ideological divisions, the culture war quality of Brexit & the ability of previously unknown MPs (Francois, Burt, Baker, Rees-Mogg, Grieve) toforge much larger profiles because of Brexit... makes this much more complex.

I've had to explain to politically aware people that yes, the commons could wake up declare a motion of no-confidence and install anyone if they wanted

But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

If Labour had a majority, Corbyn would be PM.

If the LibDems had a majority, Swinson would be PM.

Neither has a majority, so neither will be PM. Who does become PM will require a negotiation (one where Labour obviously has more bargaining power). It's really not that hard to understand if you stop being a hack for five minutes.

David Cameron didn't have a majority and he became PM. Theresa May didn't have a majority and she became PM. And furthermore, every election in my country since 1996 has been a hung parliament, and never once did one party get to dictate to another who its leader and who the Prime Minister was.

But the UK system has numerous examples of one party dictating- Jeremy Thorpe wanted to support Heath after '74 but his party blocked it, Clegg demanded that Gordon Brown stand down as PM in the brief Lab-Lib '10 discussions (a move Brown & Labour accepted) and it was widely accepted that Miliband would demand Clegg quit in a 2015 hung parliament.

And DC and TM did both have majorities; they just were reliant on other parties for said majority. If say Anne Widdecombe had won 290 odd seats in 2010 the Liberal Democrats would have been a lot less likely to put her into office, and the DUP were prepared to put May into No.10 because she offered a sh**t ton of money & the alternative was the risk of Jeremy Corbyn.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 13, 2019, 11:25:11 AM
In the news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50013578

The SNP, you may not be entirely surprised to learn, are being opportunistic, nationalistic crooks and deciding to blackmail the Leader of the Opposition, who no doubt will have the strength and integrity to refuse them hahaha oh dear

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/voters-will-have-show-casting-ballot-prevent-electoral-fraud/ (yeah I know it's the bloody Telegraph but can you believe it, the BBC aren't reporting on it? Shocking I know)

The Tories, deciding that winning the next election by conventional means is too much effort, have decided that it's going to be much easier to simply disenfranchise millions of people who have committed the heinous crime of not having enough money to buy an ID. I'm no legal expert so whether this stands up in the courts or not is beyond me, but it is unsurprising.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 13, 2019, 11:33:30 AM
In the news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50013578

The SNP, you may not be entirely surprised to learn, are being opportunistic, nationalistic crooks and deciding to blackmail the Leader of the Opposition, who no doubt will have the strength and integrity to refuse them hahaha oh dear


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/voters-will-have-show-casting-ballot-prevent-electoral-fraud/ (yeah I know it's the bloody Telegraph but can you believe it, the BBC aren't reporting on it? Shocking I know)

The Tories, deciding that winning the next election by conventional means is too much effort, have decided that it's going to be much easier to simply disenfranchise millions of people who have committed the heinous crime of not having enough money to buy an ID. I'm no legal expert so whether this stands up in the courts or not is beyond me, but it is unsurprising.

Perhaps I'm misreading but this seems as if she's still in favor of forming an opposition-based GoNU so as to oust BoJo, prevent no-deal, & secure an election, & is referring to the formation of a potential post-election government with regards to her demand.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, though.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 13, 2019, 11:36:26 AM
In the news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50013578

The SNP, you may not be entirely surprised to learn, are being opportunistic, nationalistic crooks and deciding to blackmail the Leader of the Opposition, who no doubt will have the strength and integrity to refuse them hahaha oh dear


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/voters-will-have-show-casting-ballot-prevent-electoral-fraud/ (yeah I know it's the bloody Telegraph but can you believe it, the BBC aren't reporting on it? Shocking I know)

The Tories, deciding that winning the next election by conventional means is too much effort, have decided that it's going to be much easier to simply disenfranchise millions of people who have committed the heinous crime of not having enough money to buy an ID. I'm no legal expert so whether this stands up in the courts or not is beyond me, but it is unsurprising.

Perhaps I'm misreading but this seems as if she's still in favor of forming an opposition-based GoNU so as to oust BoJo, prevent no-deal, & secure an election, & is referring to the formation of a potential post-election government with regards to her demand.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, though.

Certainly possible, but either way, playing on Corbyn's uselessness to get what she wants is probably a good move for her


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 13, 2019, 05:11:16 PM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/voters-will-have-show-casting-ballot-prevent-electoral-fraud/ (yeah I know it's the bloody Telegraph but can you believe it, the BBC aren't reporting on it? Shocking I know)

The Tories, deciding that winning the next election by conventional means is too much effort, have decided that it's going to be much easier to simply disenfranchise millions of people who have committed the heinous crime of not having enough money to buy an ID. I'm no legal expert so whether this stands up in the courts or not is beyond me, but it is unsurprising.

...so GOP voter suppression tactics have officially made their entry in British politics. Wonderful. Just wonderful.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Free North on October 13, 2019, 06:41:56 PM
How popular is Corbyn with Labour voters? His approval amongst the general public is dismal. I know thats not news to most people, but I just took a look and some polls have him underwater by 50 points. Thats Bush levels of terrible. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Coldstream on October 14, 2019, 01:20:59 AM
How popular is Corbyn with Labour voters? His approval amongst the general public is dismal. I know thats not news to most people, but I just took a look and some polls have him underwater by 50 points. Thats Bush levels of terrible. 

He’s widely detested, but the party brand is strong enough to withstand it for most voters - particularly when Boris Johnson is so bad.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 14, 2019, 04:03:35 AM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/voters-will-have-show-casting-ballot-prevent-electoral-fraud/ (yeah I know it's the bloody Telegraph but can you believe it, the BBC aren't reporting on it? Shocking I know)

The Tories, deciding that winning the next election by conventional means is too much effort, have decided that it's going to be much easier to simply disenfranchise millions of people who have committed the heinous crime of not having enough money to buy an ID. I'm no legal expert so whether this stands up in the courts or not is beyond me, but it is unsurprising.

...so GOP voter suppression tactics have officially made their entry in British politics. Wonderful. Just wonderful.

A lot of Tories have fairly openly desired this stuff for some time now. Their determination for a decade to effectively rig constituency boundaries in their favour should have been a pretty big pointer.

At present they don't have the votes for it in parliament though, so no chance of this happening *before* a GE.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Conservatopia on October 14, 2019, 09:33:58 AM
How popular is Corbyn with Labour voters? His approval amongst the general public is dismal. I know thats not news to most people, but I just took a look and some polls have him underwater by 50 points. Thats Bush levels of terrible. 
There was a poll (albeit a YouGov one) showing Swinson more popular than Corbyn among Labour voters.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: RaphaelDLG on October 14, 2019, 05:13:30 PM
Why has Jeremy Corbyn become so unpopular in the last few years despite obviously having the best platform?

I get that he's not an amazing strategic leader, and I get that there is a (what seems to me to be largely bogus) antisemitism scandal, but I don't understand why he's become so much more thoroughly disliked.

Is it the outrageously right wing media in the UK, voters taking their cues from Blairites trying to sabotage him, or maybe a realignment of British politics around Brexit that makes him less appealing to the remain coalition?  Or some combination of all three?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 14, 2019, 07:42:35 PM
If that is your starting point then it isn't as if you would believe the truth (e.g. manifold manifest political failures and scandals), so why waste time elaborating? But perhaps you would find it instructive to note that the rot really set in after his response to the Skripal affair.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on October 14, 2019, 09:13:21 PM
Why has Jeremy Corbyn become so unpopular in the last few years despite obviously having the best platform?
Perhaps because a lot of Brits think his platform is, understandably, trash? Also, he's just really unlikeable.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: RaphaelDLG on October 14, 2019, 11:27:24 PM
If that is your starting point then it isn't as if you would believe the truth (e.g. manifold manifest political failures and scandals), so why waste time elaborating? But perhaps you would find it instructive to note that the rot really set in after his response to the Skripal affair.

I don't follow British politics super closely, though I have enjoyed following British elections since the mid 00s.

I do read a decent amount of British papers and they all seem horrifyingly biased (which is saying something, because I live in America).

I am not asking this facetiously - what were these manifold failures and scandals? 

It seemed like last time I checked in in 2017, he was able to pull a surprising upset vs May despite extremely unfavorable press coverage and a very hostile, resentful Blairite wing.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 15, 2019, 12:14:22 AM
The antisemitism is very much a real and systematic issue within Labour. It does predate Corbyn, but he has consistently failed to do anything about it and been dismissive of people who have been sounding the alarm.

Someone like Luciana Berger shouldn't by any right have joined Umunna's centrist vanity project, and almost certainly wouldn't have if her party hadn't treated her like an outcast.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 15, 2019, 04:58:51 AM
Why has Jeremy Corbyn become so unpopular in the last few years despite obviously having the best platform?
Perhaps because a lot of Brits think his platform is, understandably, trash? Also, he's just really unlikeable.

Neither of these things are actually correct - Labour's policies under JC often poll well in particular.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 15, 2019, 05:40:06 AM
Why has Jeremy Corbyn become so unpopular in the last few years despite obviously having the best platform?
Perhaps because a lot of Brits think his platform is, understandably, trash? Also, he's just really unlikeable.

Neither of these things are actually correct - Labour's policies under JC often poll well in particular.

Which says a lot about how awful he is that Labour is in the sh!tter despite that


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: RaphaelDLG on October 15, 2019, 12:10:43 PM
The antisemitism is very much a real and systematic issue within Labour. It does predate Corbyn, but he has consistently failed to do anything about it and been dismissive of people who have been sounding the alarm.

Someone like Luciana Berger shouldn't by any right have joined Umunna's centrist vanity project, and almost certainly wouldn't have if her party hadn't treated her like an outcast.

In the inquiry, 0.08% of Labour members were found to have engaged in antisemitic behavior and ejected. 

Obviously all anti-semitic behavior is objectionable and wrong, but are we really to believe that the general British public (or the conservative party for that matter) has less anti-semitism than that and that this is an outrageous scandal?

Because of the way the anti-semitism scandal has been exaggerated by the media, Brits believe when asked by pollsters that something like 35% of labour members are anti-semitic, which is a gross overestimation.

Also, I have yet to find Corbyn or Labour's current leadership do or say anything that is genuinely anti-Semitic, and it seems to a (admittedly not terribly close) observer like its the same smear that goes in America, i.e., if you criticize Israel's government and you support increased autonomy / rights for Palestinians, that means you must of course hate Jews / be a self-hating Jew.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 15, 2019, 12:11:52 PM
The antisemitism is very much a real and systematic issue within Labour. It does predate Corbyn, but he has consistently failed to do anything about it and been dismissive of people who have been sounding the alarm.

Someone like Luciana Berger shouldn't by any right have joined Umunna's centrist vanity project, and almost certainly wouldn't have if her party hadn't treated her like an outcast.

In the inquiry, 0.08% of Labour members were found to have engaged in antisemitic behavior and ejected. 


If you truly believe that's the case then I have a bridge I'd like to sell to you


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 15, 2019, 12:32:33 PM
The antisemitism is very much a real and systematic issue within Labour. It does predate Corbyn, but he has consistently failed to do anything about it and been dismissive of people who have been sounding the alarm.

Someone like Luciana Berger shouldn't by any right have joined Umunna's centrist vanity project, and almost certainly wouldn't have if her party hadn't treated her like an outcast.

In the inquiry, 0.08% of Labour members were found to have engaged in antisemitic behavior and ejected. 

Obviously all anti-semitic behavior is objectionable and wrong, but are we really to believe that the general British public (or the conservative party for that matter) has less anti-semitism than that and that this is an outrageous scandal?

Because of the way the anti-semitism scandal has been exaggerated by the media, Brits believe when asked by pollsters that something like 35% of labour members are anti-semitic, which is a gross overestimation.

Also, I have yet to find Corbyn or Labour's current leadership do or say anything that is genuinely anti-Semitic, and it seems to a (admittedly not terribly close) observer like its the same smear that goes in America, i.e., if you criticize Israel's government and you support increased autonomy / rights for Palestinians, that means you must of course hate Jews / be a self-hating Jew.

To be quite honest, at this point, whether Labour is or isn't institutionally anti-Semitic is irrelevant when it seems much of the public already thinks they are.

I don't see how they come back from that.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 15, 2019, 12:54:49 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/the-votes-are-now-there-for-brexit-deal-says-jacob-rees-mogg


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on October 15, 2019, 01:40:11 PM
So Boris gets a deal by *checks notes* totally capitulating?

Oh well done, good stuff, definitely worth the 12 month drama


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 15, 2019, 01:41:11 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/the-votes-are-now-there-for-brexit-deal-says-jacob-rees-mogg

We can only hope. A deal is better than leaving with no deal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 15, 2019, 01:43:15 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/the-votes-are-now-there-for-brexit-deal-says-jacob-rees-mogg

We can only hope. A deal is better than leaving with no deal.


If he gets this passed then I think it will only reflect how bad a PM May was.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 15, 2019, 01:58:36 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/the-votes-are-now-there-for-brexit-deal-says-jacob-rees-mogg

We can only hope. A deal is better than leaving with no deal.


If he gets this passed then I think it will only reflect how bad a PM May was.

If anything, it just reflects on how her backbenchers were such a bunch of extremists.

And I'd hold your horses. The UK/EU reaching a deal isn't that much of a stretch, but them reaching one that can actually get passed by the Commons is another matter altogether. Even with the ERG on board, the DUP have said that they won't back a deal if it's the result of more concessions to EU (& especially if the rumors of a customs border down the Irish Sea are indeed true), Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal, & I'd just love to see how BoJo & Mogg expect to have the support of the former Tories from whom they withdrew the whip.

Not to mention, at this point, a deal might be the worst thing possible for the Tories, politically speaking, in that I can already hear Farage sharpening his knife. He's not gonna tolerate a deal in any form.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 15, 2019, 01:59:55 PM
This deal will shrink the economy by 6%, only slightly less than no deal would. Even if he can actually get an agreement, it still looks hard to get a majority for it and parliament should reject his deal, or at least attach a confirmatory vote to it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 15, 2019, 02:10:28 PM
Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on October 15, 2019, 02:20:52 PM
Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

We've gone a full circle from "Corbyn's government in inevitable" to "Labour's back on the suicide mode".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 15, 2019, 06:18:20 PM
Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

They aren't polling at 20% in any poll right now.

And their poll drop is significantly down to remain voters having bought the media/#FBPE line that Corbyn "wants Brexit" (regardless of his actual public statements and votes on it since 2016)

LibDems are literally praying Labour votes for any Johnson deal.

(spoiler alert - its not going to happen)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Dowager Mod on October 15, 2019, 06:49:55 PM
Larry is my hero btw.  :d


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 15, 2019, 10:55:26 PM
Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

They aren't polling at 20% in any poll right now.

And their poll drop is significantly down to remain voters having bought the media/#FBPE line that Corbyn "wants Brexit" (regardless of his actual public statements and votes on it since 2016)

LibDems are literally praying Labour votes for any Johnson deal.

(spoiler alert - its not going to happen)

The whole Brexit debate radicalized because May's deal couldn't get through, convincing a bunch of people that no deal or revoke were the only viable paths. Pass May's deal, and radicalization never takes place. People would probably agree it's a pretty bad deal, but then everybody would move on to the bread-and-butter issues that Labour has an advantage on.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 16, 2019, 05:17:32 AM
May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 16, 2019, 11:16:39 AM
May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2019, 11:47:52 AM
May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Exactly. The idea that there's some magical "better deal" right around the corner if you just tell the EU to f**k off is ridiculous. The EU's conditions for a deal are basically set in stone, and no amount of grandstanding from either BoJo or Corbyn is going to change them in any substantial way.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2019, 11:54:17 AM
Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Even if they reach a deal, I have a hard time seeing how they could avoid an extension. Any deal that comes out of these talks will need to be ratified both by the UK, by all 27 member states, and by the European Parliament. And beyond just ratification, there needs to be legislation passed to materially implement the terms of the deal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 16, 2019, 11:56:56 AM
Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Yeah, even if he reaches a deal with the EU, Boris still has to ask for an extension if the Commons doesn't pass said deal by Saturday.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 16, 2019, 12:01:45 PM
Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Yeah, even if he reaches a deal with the EU, Boris still has to ask for an extension if the Commons doesn't pass said deal by Saturday.

But I have to imagine that even if something blocks a deal of some sort (EU, DUP, LAB etc etc) Johnson will try to position it : I tried my best to execute on the promise I made about Brexit for end of Oct but the evil <fill in the blank> blatantly blocked it their narrow political benefit. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 16, 2019, 12:01:57 PM
How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 16, 2019, 12:22:43 PM
Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Yeah, even if he reaches a deal with the EU, Boris still has to ask for an extension if the Commons doesn't pass said deal by Saturday.

But I have to imagine that even if something blocks a deal of some sort (EU, DUP, LAB etc etc) Johnson will try to position it : I tried my best to execute on the promise I made about Brexit for end of Oct but the evil <fill in the blank> blatantly blocked it their narrow political benefit. 

Yeah, that's his expected general election campaign strategy lol


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: vileplume on October 16, 2019, 12:57:17 PM
How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

The soft left, they aren't Corbynite true believers by any stretch of the imagination. If either one wins the leadership if Corbyn fails at the next election they'd move drastically back towards the centre in terms of rhetoric though their policy platform would be fairly similar to what was proposed in the 2017 manifesto (which many on the 'hard left' felt didn't go far enough).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 16, 2019, 01:06:21 PM
How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

There used to be a great many factions in Labour along the lines you have said

Now there are two: "Corbyn is the second coming of Christ" and "About to be deselected".


What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

Whichever is more convenient for them in internal party politics. So the former.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 16, 2019, 01:10:18 PM
How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

The soft left, they aren't Corbynite true believers by any stretch of the imagination. If either one wins the leadership if Corbyn fails at the next election they'd move drastically back towards the centre in terms of rhetoric though their policy platform would be fairly similar to what was proposed in the 2017 manifesto (which many on the 'hard left' felt didn't go far enough).

I assumed they were further right. Angela Rayner is Soft Left and I thought Thornberry and Starmer were a bit to her right.

So the potential leadership candidates are all on the left?

Hard Left: Pidcock, RLB, McDonnell
Soft Left: Rayner, Thornberry, Starmer
Trad Right: none
Brownites: none
Blairites. none


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: vileplume on October 16, 2019, 02:01:59 PM
How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

The soft left, they aren't Corbynite true believers by any stretch of the imagination. If either one wins the leadership if Corbyn fails at the next election they'd move drastically back towards the centre in terms of rhetoric though their policy platform would be fairly similar to what was proposed in the 2017 manifesto (which many on the 'hard left' felt didn't go far enough).

I assumed they were further right. Angela Rayner is Soft Left and I thought Thornberry and Starmer were a bit to her right.

So the potential leadership candidates are all on the left?

Hard Left: Pidcock, RLB, McDonnell
Soft Left: Rayner, Thornberry, Starmer
Trad Right: none
Brownites: none
Blairites. none

Someone from the right of the party will probably run (similarly to how the left always fielded a candidate even though their chances of winning were then negligible), though they will almost certainly get nowhere. Plus I would probably include Rayner as hard left as she certainly is a Corbynite true believer and a key player in the project despite the fact that she may not be as extreme as someone like Laura Pidcock.

Also the differences between the Blairites and Brownites was almost entirely personality driven and is thus no longer a relevant distinction in this political time. Treating them as one faction named something like the 'modern right' (as opposed to the traditional right) would be in my view more accurate.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 16, 2019, 02:08:05 PM
May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Exactly. The idea that there's some magical "better deal" right around the corner if you just tell the EU to f**k off is ridiculous. The EU's conditions for a deal are basically set in stone, and no amount of grandstanding from either BoJo or Corbyn is going to change them in any substantial way.

This is pure mythology, the EU have SAID THEMSELVES a different deal might be on offer if May's wretched "red lines" were jettisoned.

And it is extremely likely any "deal" Johnson offers will be worse than hers was, anyway.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2019, 03:09:11 PM
May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Exactly. The idea that there's some magical "better deal" right around the corner if you just tell the EU to f**k off is ridiculous. The EU's conditions for a deal are basically set in stone, and no amount of grandstanding from either BoJo or Corbyn is going to change them in any substantial way.

This is pure mythology, the EU have SAID THEMSELVES a different deal might be on offer if May's wretched "red lines" were jettisoned.

And it is extremely likely any "deal" Johnson offers will be worse than hers was, anyway.

The only serious alternative to the May deal would be staying in the customs union, but that proposal has repeatedly failed to garner a majority in parliament. And if you think voting against a BoJo deal (that will be substantively identical to May's deal, let's be clear) is going to make the customs union more likely, I have a bridge to sell you.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 16, 2019, 04:37:56 PM
The antisemitism is very much a real and systematic issue within Labour. It does predate Corbyn, but he has consistently failed to do anything about it and been dismissive of people who have been sounding the alarm.

Someone like Luciana Berger shouldn't by any right have joined Umunna's centrist vanity project, and almost certainly wouldn't have if her party hadn't treated her like an outcast.

In the inquiry, 0.08% of Labour members were found to have engaged in antisemitic behavior and ejected. 

Obviously all anti-semitic behavior is objectionable and wrong, but are we really to believe that the general British public (or the conservative party for that matter) has less anti-semitism than that and that this is an outrageous scandal?

Because of the way the anti-semitism scandal has been exaggerated by the media, Brits believe when asked by pollsters that something like 35% of labour members are anti-semitic, which is a gross overestimation.

Also, I have yet to find Corbyn or Labour's current leadership do or say anything that is genuinely anti-Semitic, and it seems to a (admittedly not terribly close) observer like its the same smear that goes in America, i.e., if you criticize Israel's government and you support increased autonomy / rights for Palestinians, that means you must of course hate Jews / be a self-hating Jew.

Please ignore this very bad take from someone who has is using hashed talking points from twitter to downplay antisemitism in Labour- an issue currently being investigated by the EHCR- a statutory equalities body.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 16, 2019, 04:42:36 PM
Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

Not true; all the polling shows labour is bleeding votes to the Liberal Democrat’s and Greens (50% of our 2017 vote)

And of course Theresa Mays deal was historically hated by Brexit supporters.

Besides Leave voters hate Corbyn/labour because of immigration, trident, etc etc; not because of his view of the regulatory alignment.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 16, 2019, 04:49:51 PM
Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

They aren't polling at 20% in any poll right now.

And their poll drop is significantly down to remain voters having bought the media/#FBPE line that Corbyn "wants Brexit" (regardless of his actual public statements and votes on it since 2016)

LibDems are literally praying Labour votes for any Johnson deal.

(spoiler alert - its not going to happen)

The whole Brexit debate radicalized because May's deal couldn't get through, convincing a bunch of people that no deal or revoke were the only viable paths. Pass May's deal, and radicalization never takes place. People would probably agree it's a pretty bad deal, but then everybody would move on to the bread-and-butter issues that Labour has an advantage on.

This isn’t actually true; like it might have been true in 2017 but the issue had become polarised well before May had MV1- there’s a reason it lost by so much.

It’s certainly true that things have got a lot worse since; but I still don’t see how labour bailing out the Tories over the biggest and most political issue would go down well with either the members or the party’s voters.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 16, 2019, 04:52:19 PM
May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Single Market & Customs Union is a much better deal; it’s a pointless form of Brexit but at least upholds a relative amount of stability for business.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 16, 2019, 05:04:01 PM
Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MaxQue on October 16, 2019, 05:43:54 PM
Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 16, 2019, 05:49:19 PM
Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.

Yeah, she has been bullied by anti-Semites in her CLP pretty much non-stop over a period of years.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 16, 2019, 05:51:30 PM
Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.

because she has criticized Corbyn for enabling the spread of antisemitism within the party.

"Jeremy Corbyn - who spent three decades on the backbenches consorting with, and never confronting, antisemites, Holocaust deniers and terrorists - has attracted the support of too many antisemites."


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MaxQue on October 16, 2019, 05:51:41 PM
Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.

Yeah, she has been bullied by anti-Semites in her CLP pretty much non-stop over a period of years.

She been using the fact she was Jewish to deflect any critizism.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 16, 2019, 06:02:13 PM
One of the branches in Riverside CLP had a 'motion of no confidence'* against her scheduled for Yom Kippur. I would suggest that might be slightly indicative of a problematic atmosphere.

*Such motions have no mention in the Rule Book, note.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 16, 2019, 06:16:05 PM
Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.

Yeah, she has been bullied by anti-Semites in her CLP pretty much non-stop over a period of years.

She been using the fact she was Jewish to deflect any critizism.

I'd be interested to see any legitimate evidence you've seen that has led you to reach the conclusion that this is the case.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 16, 2019, 06:20:51 PM
Now there are two: "Corbyn is the second coming of Christ" and "About to be deselected".

Eh, long as the MP is white and (especially) male that doesn't seem to be a massive risk; Godsiff is the only exception in terms of failed-triggers so far...

Quite a few of us in this thread are or (raises hand) have been Labour members, so we at least all know what I refer to when I note that there is a certain culture than permeates a lot of local Labour parties and party meetings, and that it comes mostly from union/wider 'left culture' circles. No faction is exactly immune from this either, so while presently you mostly see its aggressive manifestation in association with the Left, this is mostly a reflection of its present incumbency.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Kingpoleon on October 16, 2019, 06:55:29 PM
Why has Jeremy Corbyn become so unpopular in the last few years despite obviously having the best platform?
Perhaps because a lot of Brits think his platform is, understandably, trash? Also, he's just really unlikeable.

Neither of these things are actually correct - Labour's policies under JC often poll well in particular.

Yes - he might win elections if he tried to lead Labour instead of trying to create a personality cult that makes Putin seem as humble as Jimmy Carter.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 16, 2019, 06:56:47 PM
But you know, and tying a few different strands of recent discussion in this thread together, I'm not sure if the Labour Party even really exists anymore - not as a coherent political organisation. For sure, you have all of the same elements as before, but do they fuse together to form anything greater than the sum of those parts? If anything the opposite seems true. Relations between the different elements are beyond poor: no one recognises, not really, the authority of anyone else and discipline has broken down across the board. The main power of the Left cadre at the top of the Party is ownership of the Party brand and label. That seems to be about all. Is there even a whip? After all, it isn't that hard to get anyone elected as a Labour Party MP to vote against a Conservative government. The cadre itself is no longer even slightly cohesive. It is also unable to use the threat of Member Power to bring its discipline to the PLP as the collapse of discipline has spread down root and (literally) branch: 'trust the members' no longer seems like a threat (or not a controllable one), and, anyway, is no longer practice. Thus the emergence of obviously stacked long and shortlists for what open selections there are in a manner that Peter Mandelson would have found a little gauche. Meanwhile the PLP is not functioning as an ordered counterweight, MPs, instead, seem to find it increasingly tempting just to do and say whatever comes into their minds. As, of course, does everyone else, from NEC members to Branch officials.

Perhaps Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again. Perhaps not: would any of the people who have acquired for themselves (accidentally for the most part) this liberation from discipline want to surrender to it once more? Perhaps someone will manage to make a smaller and deformed Humpty Dumpty out of all the shards. But for the moment...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 16, 2019, 07:06:54 PM
Of course, similar comments (if not identical) can easily be made of the Conservative Party. And the LibDems have been little more than a brand with an elected leader since before they were even called that. To say nothing of certain other parties...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 16, 2019, 07:25:13 PM
tbh it's basically cemented my conviction for electoral reform and PR. What I can't stand if the vanity of any faction that proclaims themselves the true voice of Labour voters: maybe it's best if we actually see what the ordinary people feel by having multiple left parties competing rather than the factional intrigue effectively taking the decision out of the hands of normal non-political humans.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Coldstream on October 17, 2019, 04:21:02 AM
How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

Soft left - but the soft left covers many things.

There’s the Tribunites who are very left wing economically, probably similar to the Hard Left just not as impatient and maybe have fewer of the Tankie views on foreign policy (think Ange Rayner, Richard Burden, Alex Sobel). Basically a Corbyn-lite arrangement that’s more Pro-EU.

Then there’s the compass group types who are very liberal/internationalist - making them not so much allied to the left but opposed to the Right/New Labour types over their hawkishness, authoritarianism (on national security and police) and *sometimes* harder approach on immigration. Most of them left and became a pressure group working with the Greens and Lib Dem’s but that’s where I’d associate Thornberry and Starmer.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2019, 04:50:10 AM
Johnson has managed to reach an agreement with the EU... which is still opposed by the DUP.










Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2019, 05:03:46 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2019, 06:47:47 AM
Not surprisingly.... Johnson's deal is not only rejected by the DUP, but also Labour and SNP. Meaning it's pretty much dead on arrival.

Nevertheless, vote in parliament is scheduled for Saturday.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2019, 07:16:38 AM
Not surprisingly.... Johnson's deal is not only rejected by the DUP, but also Labour and SNP. Meaning it's pretty much dead on arrival.

Nevertheless, vote in parliament is scheduled for Saturday.

Not necessarily - the EU could say: Its this Deal or No deal, we will not approve a extension. Then it depends if Remainers call the Bluff.

Well, they would need to say this before Parliament votes on the deal the day after tomorrow, and so far there hasn't been any indication that the EU would definitely rule out another extension. Strictly speaking, the EU only decides on whether to grant extensions if the UK government has requested such an extension.

Therefore it's unlikely that the 27 leaders of the post-Brexit EU could agree on issuing a "Even if you ask for another extension we would turn you down, no matter what reasons** you would provide us for that request. Don't even try" statement within the next 48 hours, because that's a hardline position I have a hard time seeing Germany, Denmark, or Ireland going along with it.

The tactic you've described in your post (this deal or no deal) seems to be the one Johnson's operating with though.


** = granting another extension to hold an election or a second referendum in the UK was always a potential backdoor here


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2019, 08:44:02 AM
Jean-Claude Juncker has just ruled out another extension, but aside from the fact that he isn't the European Council:




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2019, 09:04:54 AM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 17, 2019, 10:18:47 AM
Johnson has managed to reach an agreement with the EU... which is still opposed by the DUP.


https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1184764798107602944


https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1184764705384124416

Can't wait to see this voted down again.

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1184766856340660229

Who knew the DUP were the secret heroes of Remain?

Jean-Claude Juncker has just ruled out another extension, but aside from the fact that he isn't the European Council:


https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184823017442033666

Yeah, the EU wouldn't refuse the extension if the deal was voted down. They've been clear at various points that no-deal would never be the choice of the EU.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on October 17, 2019, 11:15:27 AM
Not surprisingly.... Johnson's deal is not only rejected by the DUP, but also Labour and SNP. Meaning it's pretty much dead on arrival.

Nevertheless, vote in parliament is scheduled for Saturday.

Not necessarily - the EU could say: Its this Deal or No deal, we will not approve a extension. Then it depends if Remainers call the Bluff.

Wouldn't be much of a bluff by the EU. Their rhetoric, their actions for the past 3 1/2 years, and the obvious logic that a no deal crash out is *precisely* the situation they are trying to avoid by endorsing the deal in the first place all point to it being an empty threat.

In any case, as noted above the EU has said on multiple occasions that they would not be the ones to initiate a no deal outcome. The only people who are proposing the idea that the EU would refuse an extension are right-wing Brexit cheer leading publications like the Spectator. Depressingly, a few gullible mainstream journalists have hopped on the bandwagon this afternoon, so the idea has received more attention than it deserves.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 17, 2019, 11:53:13 AM
Macron periodically makes noises about chucking the UK out, but that's just what they are - noises.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2019, 12:00:32 PM
Macron periodically makes noises about chucking the UK out, but that's just what they are - noises.

Macron's first reaction to the Johnson deal today also seemed unusually laid back for him, essentially saying something along the lines of "let's wait and see, we've been here before and it didn't work out".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on October 17, 2019, 12:03:36 PM
Is the deal really that dead? Surely the likes of Kinnock-the-lesser and Caroline Flint in Labout plus some of the Tory-21 give it a reasonable chance?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2019, 01:00:29 PM
Is the deal really that dead? Surely the likes of Kinnock-the-lesser and Caroline Flint in Labout plus some of the Tory-21 give it a reasonable chance?

Personally I have begun to look at it as a "Feel me once, shame on you..."/"The Boy Who Cried Wolf"-kind situation. That is I will believe that Brexit will happen the moment Brexit actually happens.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2019, 01:06:55 PM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on October 17, 2019, 01:19:10 PM
Is the deal really that dead? Surely the likes of Kinnock-the-lesser and Caroline Flint in Labout plus some of the Tory-21 give it a reasonable chance?

Indeed, there's a better chance of passage now than there every was for May's attempts. That's mostly due to a tightening up of resolve on the Tory benches, though. There hasn't been an appreciable change of content to affect any of the opposition (Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Ind/ex-Tory Ind/ex-Lab Ind/Green/does CHUK still exist?) votes.

That said, there's enough noise, bluster, bull to slim down the margins to single or low double digits. It could pass by <5 or fail by 20+. No one will know until moments before the Saturday afternoon vote.

Worth noting that everyone whose vote is uncertain will spend the next 40 hours pouring over the legal text of the agreement. All things being equal, doing so has typically raised more fears than it has allayed.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 17, 2019, 02:18:27 PM
Johnson practically has no room for error and his deal is a bad deal, there probably is a very slim path but realistically I don't think it's getting passed. Johnson will have a deal to run on in the election and won't have a full on no-deal platform, but tbh this may be a mistake for him too by giving people more of a reason to vote for the Brexit Party and so splitting the Leave vote more.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: RaphaelDLG on October 17, 2019, 03:22:59 PM
If BoJo's Brexit deal gets passed, what are the odds that the seemingly inevitable late 2019/early 2020 general election gets cancelled?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 17, 2019, 03:28:35 PM
If BoJo's Brexit deal gets passed, what are the odds that the seemingly inevitable late 2019/early 2020 general election gets cancelled?

It probably happens either way. The current parliamentary arithmetic is ideal for precisely nobody. The only reason the opposition parties were opposed to the election a few weeks back was because it was a blatant attempt to try and sneak through No Deal - once that is removed as a possibility (either by leaving with a deal or leaving without) then their opposition disappears. Probably.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 17, 2019, 04:00:39 PM
I think there is a chance a GE might now be in early 2020 rather than this year. But its hard to see this parliament running much longer than that in almost any circumstances.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on October 17, 2019, 04:56:21 PM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 17, 2019, 05:07:59 PM


Impressive.  Johnson is further ahead in the count then I thought he would be.  Most of the CON anti no deal rebels must be voting for this deal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 17, 2019, 05:10:16 PM
Most other estimates show the deal still losing narrowly, but who knows?

(and MPs support for May's deal tended to be overestimated on all three occasions)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 17, 2019, 05:12:50 PM
Comres snap poll has 40 for Johnson deal 31 oppose 29 dk


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 17, 2019, 05:16:19 PM
Does this deal with the way it ia treating NI mean that CON is no longer a Unionist party and turning into a party of English nationalism


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 17, 2019, 05:20:59 PM
The 13 unknown are:

Ivan Lewis (IND)
Anne Milton (IND)
Mike Hill (IND)
Amber Rudd (IND)
Richard Benyon (IND)
Justine Greening (IND)
Philip Hammond (IND)
Jared O'Mara (IND)
Margot James (IND)
Stephen Kinnock (LAB)
Melanie Onn (LAB)
Jim Fitzpatrick (LAB)
Kate Hoey (LAB)

But Kinnock and Hammond should be for and Hoey against. How do you expect the rest to vote?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 17, 2019, 05:37:46 PM


Motherf**king Bercow, to save or destroy the UK as his final act. What a world.

The 13 unknown are:

Ivan Lewis (IND)
Anne Milton (IND)
Mike Hill (IND)
Amber Rudd (IND)
Richard Benyon (IND)
Justine Greening (IND)
Philip Hammond (IND)
Jared O'Mara (IND)
Margot James (IND)
Stephen Kinnock (LAB)
Melanie Onn (LAB)
Jim Fitzpatrick (LAB)
Kate Hoey (LAB)

But Kinnock and Hammond should be for and Hoey against. How do you expect the rest to vote?

The future of the country is (partially) in the hands of Jared O'Mara. This is what the UK gets for murdering Nick Clegg.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 17, 2019, 05:53:22 PM
If the vote is actually a tie the deal does not pass, as per Speaker Denison's rule which states that the Speaker will vote for the status quo as there should be a positive majority for a change ("it is not for the chair to create a majority that doesn’t otherwise exist."-John Bercow) This was already used earlier this year when Bercow had to tie-break a 310-310 vote and so voted against a further round of indicative votes.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Intell on October 17, 2019, 06:47:07 PM


Motherf**king Bercow, to save or destroy the UK as his final act. What a world.

The 13 unknown are:

Ivan Lewis (IND)
Anne Milton (IND)
Mike Hill (IND)
Amber Rudd (IND)
Richard Benyon (IND)
Justine Greening (IND)
Philip Hammond (IND)
Jared O'Mara (IND)
Margot James (IND)
Stephen Kinnock (LAB)
Melanie Onn (LAB)
Jim Fitzpatrick (LAB)
Kate Hoey (LAB)

But Kinnock and Hammond should be for and Hoey against. How do you expect the rest to vote?

The future of the country is (partially) in the hands of Jared O'Mara. This is what the UK gets for murdering Nick Clegg.

He murderd himself getting in bed with the tories.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Free North on October 17, 2019, 07:16:56 PM
Were Labour MPs not threatened with removal from the party if they voted for a deal just a few days ago?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: LabourJersey on October 17, 2019, 07:34:32 PM
Does this deal with the way it ia treating NI mean that CON is no longer a Unionist party and turning into a party of English nationalism

The Tories have been the party of specifically English nationalism for ages. Tories don't actually care about Northern Ireland aside from it being a symbol that some remnant of the Empire remains; it's just that Brexit has put their utter indifference to the people of NI out in the open.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 18, 2019, 01:34:41 AM
Quote
Wilson added that the DUP made concessions with the Prime Minister in order to help him get a deal but suspected he would do what was best for the Conservative Party.

“We are disappointed he didn’t stick to the red lines he said he would,” the east Belfast MP said

He also voiced the view that a successful election could help Mr Johnson get a better deal.

“I believe, with a big majority, he can be more robust in his negotiations,” Mr Wilson added.

“It is one of the reasons why we believe that voting this down tomorrow is not the end of the game but in fact probably opens up possibilities for the Government that are not available at present but will be after a general election.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/18/boris-johnson-launches-frantic-sales-pitch-of-brexit-deal-ahead-of-commons-vote-politics-live
Lmao at the DUP's stance here, if they get their way that'd be probably the fourth or fifth attempt to negotiate into existence the 'alternative arrangements' unicorn. Still, I could totally see some ERGers agreeing with them and voting the same way.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 18, 2019, 04:39:59 AM
Merkel: Extension unavoidable if Parliament rejects deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/brexit-extension-unavoidable-if-mps-reject-deal-says-merkel


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 18, 2019, 07:22:36 AM
Yougov snap poll has 41 to 24 on should parliament approve the Johnson deal.  For leave voters it is 67 to 10. If so CON can expect good number of BXP tactical voting in the next election. for LAB voters it is 25 to 35. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 18, 2019, 07:28:54 AM
Yougov poll also had Johnson deal vs no deal vs remain at 30 bs 17 vs 38. Leave voters is 48 vs 33 vs 7.  Remain voters it is 17 vs 4 vs 73


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 18, 2019, 08:00:21 AM
Is it too late for the Sinn Fein MPs to now take their seats and vote on the deal tomorrow?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 18, 2019, 08:06:07 AM
Macron Says U.K. Must Not Get New Delay if Parliament Vote Fails


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 18, 2019, 08:08:59 AM
Macron Says U.K. Must Not Get New Delay if Parliament Vote Fails

The usual posturing stuff from him, ignore.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 18, 2019, 08:15:47 AM
Macron Says U.K. Must Not Get New Delay if Parliament Vote Fails

The usual posturing stuff from him, ignore.

"No new deal" also isn't the same as "no new extension", since Macron apparently leaves the door open for another extension in which Johnson's promises to get the necessary majority to pass this deal by holding a snap election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Free North on October 18, 2019, 09:44:31 AM
Is it too late for the Sinn Fein MPs to now take their seats and vote on the deal tomorrow?

Absolutely 0% chance that happens.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 18, 2019, 10:06:03 AM
Is it too late for the Sinn Fein MPs to now take their seats and vote on the deal tomorrow?

Absolutely 0% chance that happens.

It would be amazing drama if the deal failed or passed because the SF MPs randomly showed up to vote on it, though. (Agree it could never happen.)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 18, 2019, 11:42:04 AM
It is good that Johnson's deal will get more scrutiny if that happens, if nothing else. His attempt to bounce MPs into supporting it even before all the details have been made public is typically disreputable.

Personally, though I used to be against another referendum I now think it is the only way to settle things.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 18, 2019, 11:44:41 AM
Looks likely that with Labour support the Letwin amendment will be passed tomorrow, which means that we wont get the vote on the deal tommorow after all, and that he will have to pass implementation legislation first. This is to close the loophole in the Benn act, but it also means that a short extension will likely be necessary and just delays the whole thing a bit.

God damn it. I was really ready for super exciting Saturday tomorrow. :(

Yep, can-kicking amendment, basically.

It's the wise move to make, though, as right now, BoJo is trying to ram it through without MP's being able to see the details, & those details are more likely to turn MP's off the deal than onto it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Free North on October 18, 2019, 12:18:14 PM
https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1185236708259819521

For what its worth..


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 18, 2019, 12:43:36 PM
No "concessions" mean a thing unless they are actually written into law.

Any Labour MP who just trusts "assurances" from Johnson is not fit to represent the party.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 18, 2019, 01:01:21 PM
No "concessions" mean a thing unless they are actually written into law.

Any Labour MP who just trusts "assurances" from Johnson is not fit to represent the party.

Considering he seems to have sold the deal to one group as a way of achieving no deal & another as a means of avoiding it, I'm beginning to wonder just how gullible MPs really are.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 18, 2019, 01:11:01 PM
What is the issue people on the Left have with his plan?



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on October 18, 2019, 02:26:56 PM
What is the issue people on the Left have with his plan?



The fact that is ends the UK's membership in the EU is a pretty big problem with it for most people on 'the Left' :P (kind of a meaningless term in this context).

From an economic interventionist perspective, the deal removes significant guarantees for labour standards, working conditions, environmental regulations, and corporate accountability that are enshrined in EU law. The deal doesn't specifically repeal them, but it grants carte blanche to a government that would wish to. Moreover, with the exception of Northern Ireland, the deal will result in a new no deal cliff edge in 2021 or 2022 when the transition period runs out provided the UK and the EU haven't concluded a new free trade agreement (which itself would have virtually no 'floor' for ruinous deregulation)

Socially/diplomatically/politically, the deal rips the UK from countless institutions of cultural, social, technological, and educational cooperation that have been built up over decades. Relatedly, participation in cooperation with EU agencies along these lines will become a matter of endless rancour and debate; it gives license to the lunatic fringe of xenophobic jingoism.

Finally, not quite a """left""" objection, but the government is insisting upon passing the deal without any parliamentary scrutiny, nevermind economic impact assessment.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 18, 2019, 03:38:09 PM
The 13 unknown are:

Ivan Lewis (IND) against
Anne Milton (IND) against
Mike Hill (IND) against
Amber Rudd (IND) for
Richard Benyon (IND) for public
Justine Greening (IND) against
Philip Hammond (IND) against
Jared O'Mara (IND) no vote
Margot James (IND) for public
Stephen Kinnock (LAB) against
Melanie Onn (LAB) for public
Jim Fitzpatrick (LAB) for
Kate Hoey (LAB) against

But Kinnock and Hammond should be for and Hoey against. How do you expect the rest to vote?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 18, 2019, 04:41:58 PM
What is the issue people on the Left have with his plan?



The fact that is ends the UK's membership in the EU is a pretty big problem with it for most people on 'the Left' :P (kind of a meaningless term in this context).

From an economic interventionist perspective, the deal removes significant guarantees for labour standards, working conditions, environmental regulations, and corporate accountability that are enshrined in EU law. The deal doesn't specifically repeal them, but it grants carte blanche to a government that would wish to. Moreover, with the exception of Northern Ireland, the deal will result in a new no deal cliff edge in 2021 or 2022 when the transition period runs out provided the UK and the EU haven't concluded a new free trade agreement (which itself would have virtually no 'floor' for ruinous deregulation)

Socially/diplomatically/politically, the deal rips the UK from countless institutions of cultural, social, technological, and educational cooperation that have been built up over decades. Relatedly, participation in cooperation with EU agencies along these lines will become a matter of endless rancour and debate; it gives license to the lunatic fringe of xenophobic jingoism.

Finally, not quite a """left""" objection, but the government is insisting upon passing the deal without any parliamentary scrutiny, nevermind economic impact assessment.

Yeah, I meant what's the issue for everyone except the Tories lol.

I do see where you're coming from, I didn't know so many things would still be up in the air even after the deal.

I honestly never even understood some of the reason as to why the UK is leaving. Part of the Brexit campaign was based on Migrants and Asylum Seekers (at least what I saw from the posters), but that actually doesn't make sense, since these people were not from the EU anyway, and the 3rd world Immigrants/Refugees will still continue hiding in Trucks trying to make it across after the UK is out anyway.

In any case, thanks for the detailed answer, and I have another question.

If/Once you leave, will you be treated the same as every other "3rd Country" (non-EU) in terms of immigrating to Europe, or will you keep at least some privileges?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 18, 2019, 04:47:27 PM
Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 18, 2019, 05:20:48 PM
If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 18, 2019, 05:24:53 PM
Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

Those odds would seem to assume that all Tory MPs will vote for the deal, which is certainly possible, but far from confirmed. The Burges Group, for example, is going in very hard on Twitter against BoJo's deal. I don't doubt that a lot of them will indeed vote for it (Andrew Bridgen, for example, has already said he would), but I'd be shocked if there aren't at least a few hardliners who refuse to do so.

If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.

There are no benefits of a "clean break" (i.e. no-deal).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 18, 2019, 05:50:50 PM
Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

Those odds would seem to assume that all Tory MPs will vote for the deal, which is certainly possible, but far from confirmed. The Burges Group, for example, is going in very hard on Twitter against BoJo's deal. I don't doubt that a lot of them will indeed vote for it (Andrew Bridgen, for example, has already said he would), but I'd be shocked if there aren't at least a few hardliners who refuse to do so.

If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.

There are no benefits of a "clean break" (i.e. no-deal).

They would get full control over immigration policy (no freedom of movement).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 18, 2019, 06:06:14 PM
Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

Those odds would seem to assume that all Tory MPs will vote for the deal, which is certainly possible, but far from confirmed. The Burges Group, for example, is going in very hard on Twitter against BoJo's deal. I don't doubt that a lot of them will indeed vote for it (Andrew Bridgen, for example, has already said he would), but I'd be shocked if there aren't at least a few hardliners who refuse to do so.

If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.

There are no benefits of a "clean break" (i.e. no-deal).

They would get full control over immigration policy (no freedom of movement).

Yes, but freedom of movement is more economically beneficial for the UK than the lack thereof, so on balance, it's still not a benefit.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 18, 2019, 06:15:34 PM
Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

Those odds would seem to assume that all Tory MPs will vote for the deal, which is certainly possible, but far from confirmed. The Burges Group, for example, is going in very hard on Twitter against BoJo's deal. I don't doubt that a lot of them will indeed vote for it (Andrew Bridgen, for example, has already said he would), but I'd be shocked if there aren't at least a few hardliners who refuse to do so.

If it passes then Boris will win a landslide and Farage is toast, forever.

Really the deal is awful. It’s the worst of both worlds for the UK. Don’t get the benefits of a clean break and don’t get the benefits of being a member either. Shame.

There are no benefits of a "clean break" (i.e. no-deal).

They would get full control over immigration policy (no freedom of movement).

Yes, but freedom of movement is more economically beneficial for the UK than the lack thereof, so on balance, it's still not a benefit.

Not everything is about economics.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 18, 2019, 08:29:25 PM
Betfair odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow has now risen to around 59%


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 18, 2019, 09:14:10 PM
Survation poll

()


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 19, 2019, 01:17:11 AM
The results for the extension and referendum questions are weird-the 47% who want a second referendum is 8% higher than the 39% who want an extension, even in the fantasyland that is British politics nobody can seriously think a referendum can be done by October 31, right? Plus it's interesting that people think the UK made more concessions by a 32-point margin (biggest margin in the entire poll). Also kind of weird that more people want MPs to pass the deal than actually support it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 19, 2019, 03:03:30 AM
People make decisions on this based on what their favourite political actors say; people don’t actually know what this deal is. I’m very much of the view that all Brexit polling is useless.

All they see is Brexit, deal, pass.... of course it doesn’t help that we treat it like a reality TV show with the vote counting.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Ebsy on October 19, 2019, 04:00:36 AM
So Letwin is likely to pass, and the government is apparently saying if it does their will be no meaningful vote today. So this all may end in farcical anticlimax and delay.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Ebsy on October 19, 2019, 04:15:23 AM
Norman Lamb, the only leave-sympathetic LibDem, is voting against. The math for this deal to pass is looking very shaky indeed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 19, 2019, 04:30:56 AM
Can someone explain the basis by which people think it will pass?

If the DUP oppose, Labour opposes, SNP opposes and the Lib Dems oppose ...

They’d be short even with ALL of the “Independent-Conservatives” right?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Ebsy on October 19, 2019, 04:45:04 AM
Johnson needs around 10 Labour votes to get it through. Either way it will be close.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 19, 2019, 05:17:17 AM
I would absolutely vote against this deal.

But then again I’m a political anomaly because if I was British I would be a Blairite New Labour voter but here’s the kicker ... one that supports LEAVE and actually doesn’t mind Nigel Farage (not withstanding his partnership with Trump who I naturally despise).

Yet, all indications are it will pass.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 19, 2019, 05:24:21 AM
Johnson needs around 10 Labour votes to get it through. Either way it will be close.

This is what’s interesting is the Labour/Leave constituencies in the Northeast especially.

A lot of those MP’s who are on the fence about the deal are likely thinking I’ll be voted out if I vote against it. But that’s a miscalculation: (They obviously should vote based on what they think is best for their country, but if they’re on the fence and thinking about political consequences) Every single vote will make a huge difference so voting for it helps it to pass, while if it gets voted down that puts Labour (and Brexit party for that matter) in a much MUCH better position for a General election. Thus for those Labour Leave areas, I think it’s crucial for those MP’s that whatever they vote it ends up being the actual result




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2019, 05:33:51 AM
Betfair odds for Johnson deal to pass today now down to around 37%.   Most likely because it seems now that Letwin amendment would pass which makes the vote on the Johnson deal moot today.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 19, 2019, 06:40:40 AM
The trouble is that too many MPs (anti-Corbyn Labour ones especially) have bought into this cod-Burkean fantasy that people vote for them solely due to their transcendental individual brilliance.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2019, 07:25:12 AM
There are rumors that DUP might abstain on Letwin.  Betfair odds for Johnson deal to pass today up a bit to 40%.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 19, 2019, 07:59:08 AM
Latest rumour is that they will in fact support it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2019, 08:34:03 AM
They are now going to vote on Letwin.  Most likely it will pass and then the ball passes to Johnson to request an extension and EU to approve the extension. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 19, 2019, 08:47:25 AM
What the hell is the point of the Letwin amendment anyway?

Honestly, I do not know how the EU has any more damn patience. British politicians are playing games, and it's only because the EU didn't make it clear no further extension would be provided.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2019, 08:50:47 AM
Letwin  passes 322 to 306


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2019, 08:52:29 AM
What the hell is the point of the Letwin amendment anyway?

Honestly, I do not know how the EU has any more damn patience. British politicians are playing games, and it's only because the EU didn't make it clear no further extension would be provided.

The idea is that anti-No deal bloc is fearful if they pass the Johnson deal and then Johnson does NOT have to ask for an extension then next week when there is a vote for laws needed to cement the deal the No Deal bloc will vote no and then throw UK into No Deal Brexit 10/31


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2019, 08:53:29 AM
In the end DUP made no difference.  Even if they voted the other way  Letwin would have passed anyway.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2019, 08:54:33 AM
Boris says "I will not seek a delay" ? But that is against the law.  No idea what is going on now


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 19, 2019, 08:55:58 AM
Yes it is illegal is the short answer. Johnson/Cummings may still have some wheezes to try and dodge the Benn act, but none of them are likely to succeed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 19, 2019, 08:59:10 AM
What the hell is the point of the Letwin amendment anyway?

Honestly, I do not know how the EU has any more damn patience. British politicians are playing games, and it's only because the EU didn't make it clear no further extension would be provided.

Stops us leaving with no deal if the ERG pull some sh**t next week & removes the threat of a no deal being used as a hammer against lab leavers


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 19, 2019, 09:09:47 AM
What the hell is the point of the Letwin amendment anyway?

Honestly, I do not know how the EU has any more damn patience. British politicians are playing games, and it's only because the EU didn't make it clear no further extension would be provided.

Stops us leaving with no deal if the ERG pull some sh**t next week & removes the threat of a no deal being used as a hammer against lab leavers

The threat of no-deal is just what all the UK Politicians need to fall in line. They have been extremely unproductive, wasting everyone's time like it's everyone else's responsibility to wait an eternity for them to finally find a solution.

It's a shame the EU didn't lay out the rules clearer, the only way I would grant an extension now would be if the opposition was able to vote Johnson out.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 19, 2019, 09:11:03 AM
An absolutely hardcore 6 Labour MPs voted against Letwin - Barron, Campbell, Fitzpatrick, Flint, Hoey and Mann.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Angel of Death on October 19, 2019, 09:32:14 AM
In the end DUP made no difference.  Even if they voted the other way  Letwin would have passed anyway.

No, it would have lost 312 to 316 then.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2019, 09:33:01 AM
In the end DUP made no difference.  Even if they voted the other way  Letwin would have passed anyway.

No, it would have lost 312 to 316 then.

You are right. Did my math wrong


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 19, 2019, 09:56:21 AM
Boris Johnson's "the will of the people always overrules the rule of law" approach to politics is really a throwback to much darker times. If the people of the UK would vote in a referendum to, let's say, chemically castrate all the gays and Parliament would pass an act to the contrary would he still go ahead and chemically castrate all the gays because he must follow the will of the people?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 19, 2019, 10:29:11 AM
Boris Johnson's "the will of the people always overrules the rule of law" approach to politics is really a throwback to much darker times. If the people of the UK would vote in a referendum to, let's say, chemically castrate all the gays and Parliament would pass an act to the contrary would he still go ahead and chemically castrate all the gays because he must follow the will of the people?

Positively Cromwellian, really. I'm sure he would appreciate the comparison.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 19, 2019, 10:32:46 AM
You spelled "Churchillian" wrong there, our PM really does see himself in similar vein.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 19, 2019, 12:26:46 PM
Seems like Parliament just won't let BoJo win 8)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 19, 2019, 12:52:00 PM
Seems like Parliament just won't let BoJo win 8)

By this point no one* is going to win in a way that they would have defined a win themselves not that long ago. On today's numbers, though, the deal ought to get through safely enough early next week, so long as the government doesn't do anything extraordinarily stupid in the mean time.

*Except for the E.U. as an institution: after all the principle modifications that Johnson made to May's deal were to remove the negotiating gains that May made against the initial E.U. position - hysterical.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 19, 2019, 01:34:54 PM
The deal may well get through, but surely the difference now is that MPs will have some proper time to "scrutinise" it?

(in some cases "scrutinise" means just what it says, in other cases rather different)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 19, 2019, 02:11:26 PM
The deal may well get through, but surely the difference now is that MPs will have some proper time to "scrutinise" it?

(in some cases "scrutinise" means just what it says, in other cases rather different)

Yes, this is also true - and fits the general pattern.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Green Line on October 19, 2019, 02:35:12 PM
Boris should just martyr himself.  Refuse to send the letter and go to jail.  He wants to deliver Brexit?  There's the way forward.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 19, 2019, 02:48:11 PM
I don't think Boris would like our prisons very much.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 19, 2019, 02:51:15 PM
Seems like Parliament just won't let BoJo win 8)

By this point no one* is going to win in a way that they would have defined a win themselves not that long ago. On today's numbers, though, the deal ought to get through safely enough early next week, so long as the government doesn't do anything extraordinarily stupid in the mean time.

*Except for the E.U. as an institution: after all the principle modifications that Johnson made to May's deal were to remove the negotiating gains that May made against the initial E.U. position - hysterical.

This government does extraordinarily stupid a lot of the time. Could be some interesting amendments to the WA bill out there and some came pretty close to passing in the past.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 19, 2019, 03:58:57 PM
What the hell is the point of the Letwin amendment anyway?

Honestly, I do not know how the EU has any more damn patience. British politicians are playing games, and it's only because the EU didn't make it clear no further extension would be provided.

Stops us leaving with no deal if the ERG pull some sh**t next week & removes the threat of a no deal being used as a hammer against lab leavers

The threat of no-deal is just what all the UK Politicians need to fall in line. They have been extremely unproductive, wasting everyone's time like it's everyone else's responsibility to wait an eternity for them to finally find a solution.

It's a shame the EU didn't lay out the rules clearer, the only way I would grant an extension now would be if the opposition was able to vote Johnson out.

I don't like the idea of using mass economic chaos and societal panic (the reality of no-deal) to force MPs into accepting a brexit deal that will cause a huge amount of harm to our economy, whilst having no legal guarantees on issues like environmental and workers rights.

I also hate the idea as framing this as a failure of parliament; this is a failure of various actors. In a matter where there is not a black and white option requiring an immediate choice (declare war on Germany, nationalise the banks etc) you can't expect a hung parliament in our system to make such a seismic decision affecting 55% of our trade & our biggest political relationship change since the act of union.

Theresa May used Brexit as a political hammer to beat the Labour party with; rather than turning the result into a chance a chance to do something constructive (back in late 2016) she thought it would give her a 150 seat majority if she accused Labour of hating britain.

She loses her majority & Labour surge in remain seats & yet she continues to push ahead with a brexit deal that only appealed to Tory MPs

Irish Home Rule took decades to resolve, the Good Friday Agreement took years & years, US intervention and two referendums to decide.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Gass3268 on October 19, 2019, 05:11:41 PM


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 19, 2019, 05:19:55 PM
Looks like Johnson sent the letter asking for extension but did not sign it. The letter was accompanied with another letter saying Johnson does not want an extension.   This will go to the courts. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 19, 2019, 05:35:32 PM
His not signing it is irrelevant legally.

Overwhelming legal opinion is that he has complied with what he was required to do, however sulkily. The multiple letters stunt was a typical Cummings "galaxy brain" idea which could yet backfire as previous ones have.



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 19, 2019, 06:12:42 PM
His not signing it is irrelevant legally.

Overwhelming legal opinion is that he has complied with what he was required to do, however sulkily. The multiple letters stunt was a typical Cummings "galaxy brain" idea which could yet backfire as previous ones have.

The crux of the legal argument is that sending the other letters is an attempt to frustrate the Benn Act, which is unlawful, as per Padfield v. Minister of Agriculture.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 19, 2019, 06:47:03 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.


If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Coastal Elitist on October 19, 2019, 06:51:14 PM
Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 19, 2019, 07:03:53 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 19, 2019, 07:37:50 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 19, 2019, 08:10:52 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

People who don't know any better make the analogy of meeting with a real estate agent offering a deal on a house, but retaining the ultimate resort of walking out without buying the house, i.e. no deal. Brexit isn't like that. No-deal isn't leverage because it's not a case of walking away saying "Oh well, I won't buy that house then." This is a case of going to buy the house, & if you don't, your old house is demolished & you end up on the street.

No-deal isn't leverage, & it never was. It isn't leverage when they know that no-deal would do massive harm to the British economy & only small harm to the EU's. And not only would it harm the UK more than the EU, but the negotiating tactic of "We're willing to leave without a deal" has been tried 3 times now, & all 3 times, the UK has bottled it. The EU called the UK's bluff three times & won, so what, should they go for best of 7 now?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 19, 2019, 08:15:23 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

People who don't know any better make the analogy of meeting with a real estate agent offering a deal on a house, but retaining the ultimate resort of walking out without buying the house, i.e. no deal. Brexit isn't like that. No-deal isn't leverage because it's not a case of walking away saying "Oh well, I won't buy that house then." This is a case of going to buy the house, & if you don't, your old house is demolished & you end up on the street.

No-deal isn't leverage, & it never was. It isn't leverage when they know that no-deal would do massive harm to the British economy & only small harm to the EU's. And not only would it harm the UK more than the EU, but the negotiating tactic of "We're willing to leave without a deal" has been tried 3 times now, & all 3 times, the UK has bottled it. The EU called the UK's bluff three times & won, so what, should they go for best of 7 now?


The only way using leverage works is if your serious about using it and since the UK wasn’t then it’s pretty obvious the EU wouldn’t fall for that since it’s obvious that it is a bluff .




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 19, 2019, 08:18:39 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

People who don't know any better make the analogy of meeting with a real estate agent offering a deal on a house, but retaining the ultimate resort of walking out without buying the house, i.e. no deal. Brexit isn't like that. No-deal isn't leverage because it's not a case of walking away saying "Oh well, I won't buy that house then." This is a case of going to buy the house, & if you don't, your old house is demolished & you end up on the street.

No-deal isn't leverage, & it never was. It isn't leverage when they know that no-deal would do massive harm to the British economy & only small harm to the EU's. And not only would it harm the UK more than the EU, but the negotiating tactic of "We're willing to leave without a deal" has been tried 3 times now, & all 3 times, the UK has bottled it. The EU called the UK's bluff three times & won, so what, should they go for best of 7 now?


The only way using leverage works is if your serious about using it and since the UK wasn’t then it’s pretty obvious the EU wouldn’t fall for that bluff .

Well yes, of course the UK wasn't serious about leaving without a deal. The point is that no country in their right mind would be.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 19, 2019, 08:21:06 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

People who don't know any better make the analogy of meeting with a real estate agent offering a deal on a house, but retaining the ultimate resort of walking out without buying the house, i.e. no deal. Brexit isn't like that. No-deal isn't leverage because it's not a case of walking away saying "Oh well, I won't buy that house then." This is a case of going to buy the house, & if you don't, your old house is demolished & you end up on the street.

No-deal isn't leverage, & it never was. It isn't leverage when they know that no-deal would do massive harm to the British economy & only small harm to the EU's. And not only would it harm the UK more than the EU, but the negotiating tactic of "We're willing to leave without a deal" has been tried 3 times now, & all 3 times, the UK has bottled it. The EU called the UK's bluff three times & won, so what, should they go for best of 7 now?


The only way using leverage works is if your serious about using it and since the UK wasn’t then it’s pretty obvious the EU wouldn’t fall for that since it’s obvious that it is a bluff .




It would be hugely irresponsible for the UK to actually be serious about a no deal Brexit because it is so damaging to them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 19, 2019, 08:35:10 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

People who don't know any better make the analogy of meeting with a real estate agent offering a deal on a house, but retaining the ultimate resort of walking out without buying the house, i.e. no deal. Brexit isn't like that. No-deal isn't leverage because it's not a case of walking away saying "Oh well, I won't buy that house then." This is a case of going to buy the house, & if you don't, your old house is demolished & you end up on the street.

No-deal isn't leverage, & it never was. It isn't leverage when they know that no-deal would do massive harm to the British economy & only small harm to the EU's. And not only would it harm the UK more than the EU, but the negotiating tactic of "We're willing to leave without a deal" has been tried 3 times now, & all 3 times, the UK has bottled it. The EU called the UK's bluff three times & won, so what, should they go for best of 7 now?


The only way using leverage works is if your serious about using it and since the UK wasn’t then it’s pretty obvious the EU wouldn’t fall for that bluff .

Well yes, of course the UK wasn't serious about leaving without a deal. The point is that no country in their right mind would be.

Which of course made no deal much more likely .


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 19, 2019, 08:44:31 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

People who don't know any better make the analogy of meeting with a real estate agent offering a deal on a house, but retaining the ultimate resort of walking out without buying the house, i.e. no deal. Brexit isn't like that. No-deal isn't leverage because it's not a case of walking away saying "Oh well, I won't buy that house then." This is a case of going to buy the house, & if you don't, your old house is demolished & you end up on the street.

No-deal isn't leverage, & it never was. It isn't leverage when they know that no-deal would do massive harm to the British economy & only small harm to the EU's. And not only would it harm the UK more than the EU, but the negotiating tactic of "We're willing to leave without a deal" has been tried 3 times now, & all 3 times, the UK has bottled it. The EU called the UK's bluff three times & won, so what, should they go for best of 7 now?


The only way using leverage works is if your serious about using it and since the UK wasn’t then it’s pretty obvious the EU wouldn’t fall for that bluff .

Well yes, of course the UK wasn't serious about leaving without a deal. The point is that no country in their right mind would be.

Which of course made no deal much more likely .

Tory extremists (including BoJo) sh*ting on the best deal that the UK could've gotten is what made no-deal much more likely. Fortunately, Parliament was able to step in with the Benn Act & Letwin Amendment.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 19, 2019, 09:15:38 PM
"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.

Yeah, that's exactly what the "threat" of No Deal was. You'd have to be a complete and total cretin not to understand that 1 country cutting ties with its 27 biggest trading partners is going to hurt the one more than the 27. Even BoJo and his buddies ultimately showed they understood that, even if the nutjobs in the ERG might not.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 19, 2019, 09:18:04 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

People who don't know any better make the analogy of meeting with a real estate agent offering a deal on a house, but retaining the ultimate resort of walking out without buying the house, i.e. no deal. Brexit isn't like that. No-deal isn't leverage because it's not a case of walking away saying "Oh well, I won't buy that house then." This is a case of going to buy the house, & if you don't, your old house is demolished & you end up on the street.

No-deal isn't leverage, & it never was. It isn't leverage when they know that no-deal would do massive harm to the British economy & only small harm to the EU's. And not only would it harm the UK more than the EU, but the negotiating tactic of "We're willing to leave without a deal" has been tried 3 times now, & all 3 times, the UK has bottled it. The EU called the UK's bluff three times & won, so what, should they go for best of 7 now?


The only way using leverage works is if your serious about using it and since the UK wasn’t then it’s pretty obvious the EU wouldn’t fall for that since it’s obvious that it is a bluff .




Leverage is only useful if it is actually...you know...leverage.  The threat of a no deal brexit wouldn't give the UK any leverage even if everyone believed they were 100% ready and willing to follow through.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 19, 2019, 09:48:44 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

People who don't know any better make the analogy of meeting with a real estate agent offering a deal on a house, but retaining the ultimate resort of walking out without buying the house, i.e. no deal. Brexit isn't like that. No-deal isn't leverage because it's not a case of walking away saying "Oh well, I won't buy that house then." This is a case of going to buy the house, & if you don't, your old house is demolished & you end up on the street.

No-deal isn't leverage, & it never was. It isn't leverage when they know that no-deal would do massive harm to the British economy & only small harm to the EU's. And not only would it harm the UK more than the EU, but the negotiating tactic of "We're willing to leave without a deal" has been tried 3 times now, & all 3 times, the UK has bottled it. The EU called the UK's bluff three times & won, so what, should they go for best of 7 now?


The only way using leverage works is if your serious about using it and since the UK wasn’t then it’s pretty obvious the EU wouldn’t fall for that since it’s obvious that it is a bluff .




Leverage is only useful if it is actually...you know...leverage.  The threat of a no deal brexit wouldn't give the UK any leverage even if everyone believed they were 100% ready and willing to follow through.


The EU would get hurt badly by the UK leaving without a deal to so then they would have an incentive to negotiate fairly


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 19, 2019, 09:54:30 PM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.

The only thing that has been validated by this entire process is the principle of checks & balances. And the only thing that's trash about the Benn Act (the sole purpose of which has been to prevent a no-deal exit) is your opinion about it.

If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

As much as BoJo has already made it, the threat of a no-deal Brexit would've been infinitely worse had Parliament not been there to take it off the table.

Well yeah it was immensely idiotic to take no deal off the table. It was their best bargaining chip

"Please Mr. EU, give me the deal to end all deals! Or else I'll be forced to shoot myself in the head!"

Quite the bargaining chip indeed.


Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

People who don't know any better make the analogy of meeting with a real estate agent offering a deal on a house, but retaining the ultimate resort of walking out without buying the house, i.e. no deal. Brexit isn't like that. No-deal isn't leverage because it's not a case of walking away saying "Oh well, I won't buy that house then." This is a case of going to buy the house, & if you don't, your old house is demolished & you end up on the street.

No-deal isn't leverage, & it never was. It isn't leverage when they know that no-deal would do massive harm to the British economy & only small harm to the EU's. And not only would it harm the UK more than the EU, but the negotiating tactic of "We're willing to leave without a deal" has been tried 3 times now, & all 3 times, the UK has bottled it. The EU called the UK's bluff three times & won, so what, should they go for best of 7 now?


The only way using leverage works is if your serious about using it and since the UK wasn’t then it’s pretty obvious the EU wouldn’t fall for that since it’s obvious that it is a bluff .




Leverage is only useful if it is actually...you know...leverage.  The threat of a no deal brexit wouldn't give the UK any leverage even if everyone believed they were 100% ready and willing to follow through.


The EU would get hurt badly by the UK leaving without a deal to so then they would have an incentive to negotiate fairly

Any detrimental economic impacts that a no-deal Brexit would have for the EU pale in comparison to those that the UK would suffer.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 19, 2019, 10:05:59 PM
Plus it's not like the UK won't have to negotiate with the EU if there's no deal. It would have to figure out a way to mitigate the chaos and get a trade agreement to stop the economic damage. The problem then is that the UK's negotiating position would be even weaker and the UK would suffer unnecessary and self-inflicted damage in the mean time. And it's similar with the Brexit deal, just ratifying the deal doesn't 'get Brexit done' or end the negotiations, it starts a new phase of even more arduous negotiations where the UK's position is weaker.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on October 19, 2019, 10:07:54 PM




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 19, 2019, 10:40:00 PM
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1185605845440180231?s=19

I see the DUP is finally catching up with the reality that unionism will only survive if the UK remains.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 20, 2019, 02:11:00 AM
The DUP's pigheadedness and opportunism never cease to astound, but for once they might actually be a force for good. A referendum on BoJo's deal genuinely is the best way to end this psychodrama. Either the deal wins, and thus gains the legitimacy it needs to be accepted by (the non-fanatical) Remainers, or it loses, and while it wouldn't solve anything, it would at least probably spell the end of BoJo's political career and allow the public to indicate a new direction through a general election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 20, 2019, 02:51:57 AM
I know posters on here hate my opinion but I think I have been validated by this entire process. A presidential system is far better than a parliamentary one . A President would not have been handcuffed by parliament throughout negotiations and trash laws like the Benn act would never have been signed into law without a 2/3 vote.


If their really was a firm threat of No-Deal Brexit, I can bet you the UK gets a much better deal from the EU then they will ever get .

How would President Gary Lineker have made this situation any different?

Did you read any of the posts I & others did about why no deal hurt the U.K. more and also why it was a threat no British government could uphold?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 20, 2019, 02:59:14 AM




Very sceptical of this; there’s 20 anti 2nd ref labour (some may abstain) and still not enough second referendum supporters among the ex Tories.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on October 20, 2019, 03:16:17 AM




Very sceptical of this; there’s 20 anti 2nd ref labour (some may abstain) and still not enough second referendum supporters among the ex Tories.

The numbers would be very tight, and as of writing I think it would probably fail to pass, but that's not the only dynamic at work. There will be multiple opportunities to amend the Withdrawal Act, by the Commons and the Lords, any one of which could produce an amendment that one or another side of the debate find intolerable. An amendment for permanent UK-wide customs union failed only by 2 votes back in April.

There's also the not insignificant matter of the actual confidence of the house. If the DUP voted against the government in a VONC there is no way there would be enough non-Tory (or ex-Tory Independents) votes to avoid a government defeat. Provided the EU granted an extension through to January as requested* there would be an election *after* the deal had passed but *before* it took effect and the UK was no longer a member of the EU.

*There's a non-zero chance the EU will provide a 'counter offer' of an earlier date, which would complicate matters quite a bit. That said, I think the EU will do as little as possible to interject themselves further into the UK's domestic political melodrama, and so will opt for the least controversial step - to grant the extension request as written.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 20, 2019, 05:49:28 AM
Supporters of "no deal remaining on the table" have made comparisons with Mutually Assured Destruction.

The difference is, it wouldn't be that - the "destruction" would be massively disproportionately on one side.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: pppolitics on October 20, 2019, 08:53:35 AM
Removing leverage is a terrible way to negotiate

"Give me what I want or I'll commit suicide"

That's quite a leverage the UK got there /sarcasm


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 20, 2019, 09:55:08 AM

The numbers would be very tight, and as of writing I think it would probably fail to pass, but that's not the only dynamic at work. There will be multiple opportunities to amend the Withdrawal Act, by the Commons and the Lords, any one of which could produce an amendment that one or another side of the debate find intolerable. An amendment for permanent UK-wide customs union failed only by 2 votes back in April.


Indeed - and some of those who voted against it then arguably only did so as they were in government.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 20, 2019, 11:10:07 AM




Very sceptical of this; there’s 20 anti 2nd ref labour (some may abstain) and still not enough second referendum supporters among the ex Tories.

The numbers would be very tight, and as of writing I think it would probably fail to pass, but that's not the only dynamic at work. There will be multiple opportunities to amend the Withdrawal Act, by the Commons and the Lords, any one of which could produce an amendment that one or another side of the debate find intolerable. An amendment for permanent UK-wide customs union failed only by 2 votes back in April.

There's also the not insignificant matter of the actual confidence of the house. If the DUP voted against the government in a VONC there is no way there would be enough non-Tory (or ex-Tory Independents) votes to avoid a government defeat. Provided the EU granted an extension through to January as requested* there would be an election *after* the deal had passed but *before* it took effect and the UK was no longer a member of the EU.

*There's a non-zero chance the EU will provide a 'counter offer' of an earlier date, which would complicate matters quite a bit. That said, I think the EU will do as little as possible to interject themselves further into the UK's domestic political melodrama, and so will opt for the least controversial step - to grant the extension request as written.

Not impossible they might offer a longer one, despite the opposition from the likes of Macron - not least as it could be framed as "this is the chance to sort your s*** out once and for all" :)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 20, 2019, 11:39:20 AM
Given my near breakdown on friday as I watched the votes slip away (it's gonna pass folks- thanks to both Ivan Lewis & John Woodcock being pissed off at Labour over sexual harassment & ex-tory MPs voting like tory MPs) I'm just praying that the WAB will be amended heavily to ensure A.) Parliament has complete control over the next round & I mean legally tight like the Benn Act B.) Sit on some sort of Customs Union.

But god knows how you actually go about making this stuff work legally- it's easy to get a narrow majority for the idea of this Brexit... but not so easy once you start amending.
 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 20, 2019, 11:42:43 AM
You mean its actually Labour's fault that both Lewis and Woodcock were credibly accused of sexual harassment? The party machinery can be blamed for much, but that - not really.

(what happened to the "fully independent" investigation that the latter promised, btw?)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 20, 2019, 11:50:21 AM
You mean its actually Labour's fault that both Lewis and Woodcock were credibly accused of sexual harassment? The party machinery can be blamed for much, but that - not really.

(what happened to the "fully independent" investigation that the latter promised, btw?)

You're being a bit too eager if you think I was in anyway defending them, or if I was somehow blaming LOTO for them.

Was merely telling people the insane dynamics at play.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 20, 2019, 02:57:25 PM
Tbf that wasn't clear from the previous post ;)

There's all sorts of this stuff going on with all "sides" at the minute. When the government of the day has a big majority it doesn't matter so much, but right now.......


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 20, 2019, 04:11:30 PM
Tbf that wasn't clear from the previous post ;)

There's all sorts of this stuff going on with all "sides" at the minute. When the government of the day has a big majority it doesn't matter so much, but right now.......

I don’t want to get sued for libel but yes as seen with the DUP this week will be about the mother of all egos massaging


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 21, 2019, 05:59:25 AM
So the government today want another meaningful vote for the Johnson deal.  So it will be up to Speaker Bercow to allow this to come to a vote.  A Goldman Sachs report says that there is a 60% chance that such a deal will be passed within the next 2 days.  GBP rallies on that report.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 21, 2019, 09:40:32 AM
Breaking: Bercow refuses to allow meaningful vote on Brexit deal today.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 21, 2019, 09:54:40 AM
Breaking: Bercow refuses to allow meaningful vote on Brexit deal today.

Good. Boris had a chance on Saturday & tried to play a partisan game instead of acting reasonably.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 21, 2019, 09:55:21 AM
Hard to argue with his reasoning tbh.

Another stunt from "MASSIVE BRAIN" Cummings gone wrong?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 21, 2019, 11:13:22 AM
I hope the EU rejects any extension so this bill then will pass.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 21, 2019, 12:09:04 PM
I hope the EU rejects any extension so this bill then will pass.

The EU won't make its decision until they see whether or not the WA bill passes. But be grateful because, if anything, the Letwin Amendment made it more likely that the bill will pass as it stands*, as now the Tory & Labour rebels aren't worrying about the immediate threat of no-deal.

*And the idea of attaching a customs union to it is being resisted in Westminster.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 21, 2019, 04:22:54 PM
There's no guarantee it will pass the Commons before 31 October... and the Lords will have their say too.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 21, 2019, 04:44:02 PM
There's no guarantee it will pass the Commons before 31 October... and the Lords will have their say too.

Rees-Mogg is attempting to get the WA Bill done & dusted in 3 days, & is delaying the Queen's Speech vote to do so, so while not a guarantee, it definitely looks more likely than not.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 21, 2019, 05:38:36 PM
No guarantee that MPs will vote for such a ridiculously restrictive timetable.

It also has to pass not just through the EU but the devolved assemblies, reportedly.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: PSOL on October 21, 2019, 07:04:33 PM
In other news, legal action is being taken on stopping forced labor-derived cotton from Uzbekistan    (https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/21/lawyers-challenge-uk-import-of-slavery-tainted-uzbek-cotton)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 21, 2019, 07:14:46 PM
No guarantee that MPs will vote for such a ridiculously restrictive timetable.

It also has to pass not just through the EU but the devolved assemblies, reportedly.

Yeah, but the British government is allowed to just ignore them if it wants to, in the same fashion that it could just vote to abolish them tomorrow if they wanted to. Of course, they've historically been reluctant to, but this has changed with Brexit because the SNP are clear that they'll never consent.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:03:17 PM
Voting in progress in Johnson schedule pass his plan.  I suspect it will not pass


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:12:24 PM
Ah .. this vote is for the general principle of the bill and nos the schedule.  This one is more likely to pass but not the critical one.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:16:07 PM
Johnson wins first and non-critical vote 329 vs 299 ... Johnson finally wins a vote


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:17:06 PM
Now they will vote on the timeline which is harder for Johnson to win


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:18:27 PM
If seems that DUP voted against the first motion.  If so then this result is a very good result for Johnson and bodes well on the second and critical vote on the schedule.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:28:25 PM
GBP dropping on signs that DUP voted against Johnson on the second and critical vote.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:33:02 PM
Johnson loses second and critical vote 308 to 322


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on October 22, 2019, 01:33:27 PM
Johnson loses second and critical vote 308 to 322

Thank the gods


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:33:35 PM
Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:38:49 PM
Johnson's speech does not speak of an election.  I guess he will try to go for a technical extension and try to get the deal pass and done shortly after end of Oct.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 01:40:54 PM
Betfair now has meaningful vote passing sometime in 2019 down to 40% or so... it was something like 47% earlier today.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on October 22, 2019, 01:44:16 PM
Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

I don't doubt he would do that, but it's WAY more complicated. He doesn't have the ability to call an election without a good deal of the opposition wishing it to happen. He also doesn't have control over the EU's response to the Burt-Benn Act mandated extension request. Statutorily, Johnson sent a letter asking for an extension to January 31, 2020. If the EU accepts this, an election is viable. If it counteroffers something shorter, an election becomes much more difficult to organize with the time remaining.

As it stands, it seems Johnson will lobby the EU for a shorter extension so he can shanghai the opposition into voting his deal through (on his timetable), lest they risk a no-deal crash out at the end of the shortened extension date. What the EU will do in this position is very uncertain. They want to be rid of this wretched farce, but they also don't want to interject themselves into UK politics any more than they have to. (There also might be a rump of those who hope an election might bring a remainer government to power, but I wouldn't put too much faith on this).

Bottom line: Remain just barely lives to fight another day.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 22, 2019, 01:45:46 PM
Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

His mouthpiece Cummings "claimed" that earlier today and the likes of Laura K and Peston reliably stenographed for him as they always do.

From the vote it seems this latest scare tactic may have rebounded. Again.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 02:06:23 PM
Johnson's behavior seems to be driven by his fear that his large poll lead will disappear if he misses the 10/31 deadline.  I guess what he is trying to do is to over-advertisement every step where he is being blocked from getting a deal done and executed by 10/31 so when 11/1 comes around he will still have his large poll lead.  I think polling later this week will sort of show if his worries have merit. 


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 22, 2019, 04:21:50 PM
Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

I don't doubt he would do that, but it's WAY more complicated. He doesn't have the ability to call an election without a good deal of the opposition wishing it to happen. He also doesn't have control over the EU's response to the Burt-Benn Act mandated extension request. Statutorily, Johnson sent a letter asking for an extension to January 31, 2020. If the EU accepts this, an election is viable. If it counteroffers something shorter, an election becomes much more difficult to organize with the time remaining.

As it stands, it seems Johnson will lobby the EU for a shorter extension so he can shanghai the opposition into voting his deal through (on his timetable), lest they risk a no-deal crash out at the end of the shortened extension date. What the EU will do in this position is very uncertain. They want to be rid of this wretched farce, but they also don't want to interject themselves into UK politics any more than they have to. (There also might be a rump of those who hope an election might bring a remainer government to power, but I wouldn't put too much faith on this).

Bottom line: Remain just barely lives to fight another day.

Johnson may "lobby" for a shorter extension, but Jan 31 is the date mentioned in his letter and it is very likely the EU will stick to that (indeed, they *could* in theory offer a longer one too, but I don't expect that to happen either)

And as was indeed the case with May's extension which is about to end, we could still actually leave the EU at the end of December or (less likely) November if things are wrapped up by then.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 22, 2019, 04:26:31 PM
Tusk has said he's recommending a 31 January 2020 extension and will do the approval by written procedure.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 22, 2019, 10:10:16 PM
Tusk has said he's recommending a 31 January 2020 extension and will do the approval by written procedure.

hahahahaha, amazing

Seriously though, Parliament needs time to properly scrutinize this deal, and I'm glad they are taking it whether BoJo likes it or not. Even now, the process still matters.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on October 23, 2019, 05:14:44 AM
Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

I don't doubt he would do that, but it's WAY more complicated. He doesn't have the ability to call an election without a good deal of the opposition wishing it to happen.

BoJO: Oh boy, another crucial vote is coming.
House: *inflicts another crucial defeat on the PM*
BoJo: Well, damn. I'm pulling the agreement and asking for an election instead. Now, can you vote with me on dissolving the parliament?
House: Nope.
BoJo: WTF is this? A Groundhog Day? I want to wake up!
House: Nope.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 23, 2019, 05:24:17 AM
Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

I don't doubt he would do that, but it's WAY more complicated. He doesn't have the ability to call an election without a good deal of the opposition wishing it to happen.

BoJO: Oh boy, another crucial vote is coming.
House: *inflicts another crucial defeat on the PM*
BoJo: Well, damn. I'm pulling the agreement and asking for an election instead. Now, can you vote with me on dissolving the parliament?
House: Nope.
BoJo: WTF is this? A Groundhog Day? I want to wake up!
House: Nope.

Honestly, not being able to call an election is really, really dumb.

What were the people passing the Election law thinking... Probably something along the lines "How can we make parliament as useless and inefficient as possible"



Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 23, 2019, 05:50:04 AM
Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 23, 2019, 09:19:43 AM
Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 23, 2019, 09:42:32 AM
Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

The LAB reason for not having an election ASAP is that they want to ensure that there is a not a No Deal Brexit.  The real reason is they will get creamed in a snap poll.  Of course you can argue that even after the Johnson deal is passed and UK leaves the EU, there is still a chance that future talks with the EU on Free Trade Pact could lead to a No Deal Brexit a year or two down the line so in theory LAB can insist on no election until 2021 or even 2022 as long as they are well behind in the polls.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 23, 2019, 01:25:17 PM
If BoJo really wanted an election, he could do something very simple: resign. Either the Rebel Alliance can form an alternative government, in which case the case for elections falls apart since a governing majority does in fact exist, or they can't, and then there will be elections.

The FTPA is not at fault here, tactical scheming on both sides is.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 23, 2019, 03:25:25 PM
Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

The govt have a majority for their domestic legislation & have passed non Brexit bills.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 23, 2019, 05:46:34 PM
Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

The govt have a majority for their domestic legislation & have passed non Brexit bills.


Doesn't matter. If they are being denied bills they are proposing, they should have the right to call an election.

If it takes 50+% of votes to pass a no-confidence vote, why wouldn't their 50% be enough to call a new election?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 23, 2019, 08:02:02 PM
Giving the executive control over the electoral calendar is actually an awful and blatantly undemocratic idea. It's in the same category of terrible ideas as letting incumbents draw their own district lines. The FTPA was obviously not perfect (5-year terms are unacceptably long), but my opinion of it has actually improved a lot with this current crisis. It's working exactly as it should, preventing a power-hungry PM from bullying Parliament into submission and opportunistically exploiting the tides of public opinion to his advantage.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 24, 2019, 12:59:01 AM
Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

The govt have a majority for their domestic legislation & have passed non Brexit bills.


Doesn't matter. If they are being denied bills they are proposing, they should have the right to call an election.

If it takes 50+% of votes to pass a no-confidence vote, why wouldn't their 50% be enough to call a new election?

But they’re not are they? They won the second reading of their Brexit deal...

And besides you can trigger an election with 50%; can either repeal the fix terms parliament act or pass a one line bill, or collapse their own govt in a no confidence vote.

They’ve had a month to try all three....


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 24, 2019, 09:01:06 AM
Repealing the FTPA - certainly in its present form - would probably get a majority of MPs now.

But any such bill would take more than a day to pass, and could indeed be amended. Which would put any remaining chance of a 2019 GE to bed.

I get the impression that despite the current positioning, both sides would be *happier* with an early 2020 poll in any case - if so the question is how to finesse that outcome.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Free North on October 24, 2019, 12:15:25 PM
Govt to table a motion for general election on Monday

SNP already said they wont back it




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 24, 2019, 12:55:51 PM
Govt to table a motion for general election on Monday

SNP already said they wont back it




What is the SNP reason?  I thought they wanted an election ?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 24, 2019, 01:03:56 PM
Govt to table a motion for general election on Monday

SNP already said they wont back it




What is the SNP reason?  I thought they wanted an election ?

They (as does the entirety of the Opposition) want the opportunity to fully scrutinize the WA bill. With an election, said scrutiny would prematurely end with Parliament's dissolution in approximately 2 weeks' time.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 24, 2019, 02:07:16 PM
Yeah, there shouldn't be an election called until a deal is ratified.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: BlueSwan on October 24, 2019, 02:33:20 PM
Giving the executive control over the electoral calendar is actually an awful and blatantly undemocratic idea. It's in the same category of terrible ideas as letting incumbents draw their own district lines. The FTPA was obviously not perfect (5-year terms are unacceptably long), but my opinion of it has actually improved a lot with this current crisis. It's working exactly as it should, preventing a power-hungry PM from bullying Parliament into submission and opportunistically exploiting the tides of public opinion to his advantage.
It works just fine here in Denmark. The Prime Minister here can call for an election with 3 weeks notice at any time and for any reason. In certain periods of politicial instability, like the 70's, that meant an election pretty much every other year. In other more stable times, like the last two decades, we're usually fairly close to going the full 4 years. So the last elections have been in 1990, 1994, 1998, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. Also the electoral advantage of picking the date hasn't really shown to matter very much in danish politics where support for the various parties is fairly stable, and rarely subject to massive swings within the space of a few months. Also, usually a party is in power for a couple of terms and then the opposition gains power. In my lifetime we've had the following prime ministers:

1975-1982: Anker Jørgensen (Social democrats)
1982-1993: Poul Schlüther (Conservatives)
1993-2001: Poul Nyrup Rasmussen (Social democrats)
2001-2009: Anders Fogh Rasmussen (Liberals)
2009-2011: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2011-2015: Helle Thorning Schmidt (Social democrats)
2015-2019: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2019-?: Mette Frederiksen (Social democrats)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 24, 2019, 03:27:06 PM
The govt have a majority for their domestic legislation & have passed non Brexit bills.


Only relatively uncontroversial ones.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 24, 2019, 04:05:48 PM
Lets hope the Tories get a majority, then they can push through Brexit


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 24, 2019, 04:15:32 PM
Lets hope the Tories get a majority, then they can push through Brexit

Johnson is arguably declining the opportunity to "push through Brexit" right now.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Dereich on October 24, 2019, 05:07:49 PM
Lets hope the Tories get a majority, then they can push through Brexit

Johnson is arguably declining the opportunity to "push through Brexit" right now.

I doubt the SNP, Lib Dems, and Labour leadership would be pushing for a longer timetable if they didn't think it would guarantee that they could sink Johnson's deal.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: IceAgeComing on October 24, 2019, 05:18:41 PM
the issue is that you can't just 'repeal the fixed term parliament act' without passing a replacement.  Prior to 2011 the power to dissolve governments or call elections was entirely a prerogative power entirely in the hands of the Crown; and the government therefore handled it.  Once you take an area of law and pass legislation on it parliament is overriding that prerogative power and saying that area is now one that Parliament has interest in: and once you do that constitutionally you can't go back to what happened before since constitutionally its no longer a matter for the Monarch.  What a straight repeal would do is actually make it impossible FOR parliament to dissolve itself since no one would have any powers to do it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 24, 2019, 06:18:35 PM
the issue is that you can't just 'repeal the fixed term parliament act' without passing a replacement.  Prior to 2011 the power to dissolve governments or call elections was entirely a prerogative power entirely in the hands of the Crown; and the government therefore handled it.  Once you take an area of law and pass legislation on it parliament is overriding that prerogative power and saying that area is now one that Parliament has interest in: and once you do that constitutionally you can't go back to what happened before since constitutionally its no longer a matter for the Monarch.  What a straight repeal would do is actually make it impossible FOR parliament to dissolve itself since no one would have any powers to do it.

Well, regardless of whether or not a repeal would simply return it to its status as a power of the royal prerogative (evidently, it's murky), the one thing it wouldn't do is make it impossible for Parliament to dissolve itself. This is because parliamentary sovereignty means that nothing is impossible for Parliament to do, so long as it's legislated for by Parliament.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 24, 2019, 06:36:38 PM
Lets hope the Tories get a majority, then they can push through Brexit

Johnson is arguably declining the opportunity to "push through Brexit" right now.

I doubt the SNP, Lib Dems, and Labour leadership would be pushing for a longer timetable if they didn't think it would guarantee that they could sink Johnson's deal.

Depends what you mean by "sink" - there *is* a good chance a Customs Union amendment may get through, but that is still Brexit and would nonetheless mean our PM could claim he had "got it done".


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on October 25, 2019, 01:35:12 AM
the issue is that you can't just 'repeal the fixed term parliament act' without passing a replacement.  Prior to 2011 the power to dissolve governments or call elections was entirely a prerogative power entirely in the hands of the Crown; and the government therefore handled it.  Once you take an area of law and pass legislation on it parliament is overriding that prerogative power and saying that area is now one that Parliament has interest in: and once you do that constitutionally you can't go back to what happened before since constitutionally its no longer a matter for the Monarch.  What a straight repeal would do is actually make it impossible FOR parliament to dissolve itself since no one would have any powers to do it.

Just give the power to dissolve parliament directly to the PM, and not the Crown, or reduce the majority required for dissolution to a simple majority.

I think it's becoming clear to people that Labour is making up excuses to deny an election because they're afraid they'll lose. Remember when Corbyn said that they would vote for an election once the Benn Act had passed parliament?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 25, 2019, 01:50:08 AM
Giving the executive control over the electoral calendar is actually an awful and blatantly undemocratic idea. It's in the same category of terrible ideas as letting incumbents draw their own district lines. The FTPA was obviously not perfect (5-year terms are unacceptably long), but my opinion of it has actually improved a lot with this current crisis. It's working exactly as it should, preventing a power-hungry PM from bullying Parliament into submission and opportunistically exploiting the tides of public opinion to his advantage.
It works just fine here in Denmark. The Prime Minister here can call for an election with 3 weeks notice at any time and for any reason. In certain periods of politicial instability, like the 70's, that meant an election pretty much every other year. In other more stable times, like the last two decades, we're usually fairly close to going the full 4 years. So the last elections have been in 1990, 1994, 1998, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. Also the electoral advantage of picking the date hasn't really shown to matter very much in danish politics where support for the various parties is fairly stable, and rarely subject to massive swings within the space of a few months. Also, usually a party is in power for a couple of terms and then the opposition gains power. In my lifetime we've had the following prime ministers:

1975-1982: Anker Jørgensen (Social democrats)
1982-1993: Poul Schlüther (Conservatives)
1993-2001: Poul Nyrup Rasmussen (Social democrats)
2001-2009: Anders Fogh Rasmussen (Liberals)
2009-2011: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2011-2015: Helle Thorning Schmidt (Social democrats)
2015-2019: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2019-?: Mette Frederiksen (Social democrats)

Just because it hasn't always worked doesn't mean it's not a bad principle to set.

When an election takes place is part of the "rules of the game" of politics. The players of the game should never be able to control the rules.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: BlueSwan on October 25, 2019, 04:17:15 AM
Giving the executive control over the electoral calendar is actually an awful and blatantly undemocratic idea. It's in the same category of terrible ideas as letting incumbents draw their own district lines. The FTPA was obviously not perfect (5-year terms are unacceptably long), but my opinion of it has actually improved a lot with this current crisis. It's working exactly as it should, preventing a power-hungry PM from bullying Parliament into submission and opportunistically exploiting the tides of public opinion to his advantage.
It works just fine here in Denmark. The Prime Minister here can call for an election with 3 weeks notice at any time and for any reason. In certain periods of politicial instability, like the 70's, that meant an election pretty much every other year. In other more stable times, like the last two decades, we're usually fairly close to going the full 4 years. So the last elections have been in 1990, 1994, 1998, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. Also the electoral advantage of picking the date hasn't really shown to matter very much in danish politics where support for the various parties is fairly stable, and rarely subject to massive swings within the space of a few months. Also, usually a party is in power for a couple of terms and then the opposition gains power. In my lifetime we've had the following prime ministers:

1975-1982: Anker Jørgensen (Social democrats)
1982-1993: Poul Schlüther (Conservatives)
1993-2001: Poul Nyrup Rasmussen (Social democrats)
2001-2009: Anders Fogh Rasmussen (Liberals)
2009-2011: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2011-2015: Helle Thorning Schmidt (Social democrats)
2015-2019: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2019-?: Mette Frederiksen (Social democrats)

Just because it hasn't always worked doesn't mean it's not a bad principle to set.

When an election takes place is part of the "rules of the game" of politics. The players of the game should never be able to control the rules.
I just think your basic reasoning is flawed. Asking the people is NOT the same as manipulating election maps at all. Why should you ever be afraid of the verdict of the people in a democracy?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 25, 2019, 04:54:35 AM
If Corbyn is preventing an election out of cowardice, why did he allow an election in 2017 when Labour was much further behind in the polls and the precedent of the 2017 campaign did not yet exist?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 25, 2019, 05:06:33 AM
the issue is that you can't just 'repeal the fixed term parliament act' without passing a replacement.  Prior to 2011 the power to dissolve governments or call elections was entirely a prerogative power entirely in the hands of the Crown; and the government therefore handled it.  Once you take an area of law and pass legislation on it parliament is overriding that prerogative power and saying that area is now one that Parliament has interest in: and once you do that constitutionally you can't go back to what happened before since constitutionally its no longer a matter for the Monarch.  What a straight repeal would do is actually make it impossible FOR parliament to dissolve itself since no one would have any powers to do it.

Just give the power to dissolve parliament directly to the PM, and not the Crown, or reduce the majority required for dissolution to a simple majority.

I think it's becoming clear to people that Labour is making up excuses to deny an election because they're afraid they'll lose. Remember when Corbyn said that they would vote for an election once the Benn Act had passed parliament?

He actually said "when the threat of no deal was totally off the table" - which it is almost, but not quite, at the time of writing. More to the point though is that it isn't just "Labour" - the entire opposition (*) is united in not wanting to give Johnson a 12th Dec election *on the terms he has set out*. Which is that parliament, as well as generously agreeing to that, will in return also generously agree to rush through his Brexit bill first.
 
They have told him, quite rightly, he can have a December GE or more time to pass his bill into law.

But not both.

And in response to this perfectly reasonable position, last night Cummings had another tantrum :)

(* this thus includes the SNP and LibDems, both of whom stand to gain from an election right now)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 25, 2019, 12:46:18 PM
Taking No Deal totally off the table i.e. eliminating it as the legal default, is a position that will of course never fly with the ERG...


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 25, 2019, 01:33:39 PM
Giving the executive control over the electoral calendar is actually an awful and blatantly undemocratic idea. It's in the same category of terrible ideas as letting incumbents draw their own district lines. The FTPA was obviously not perfect (5-year terms are unacceptably long), but my opinion of it has actually improved a lot with this current crisis. It's working exactly as it should, preventing a power-hungry PM from bullying Parliament into submission and opportunistically exploiting the tides of public opinion to his advantage.
It works just fine here in Denmark. The Prime Minister here can call for an election with 3 weeks notice at any time and for any reason. In certain periods of politicial instability, like the 70's, that meant an election pretty much every other year. In other more stable times, like the last two decades, we're usually fairly close to going the full 4 years. So the last elections have been in 1990, 1994, 1998, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. Also the electoral advantage of picking the date hasn't really shown to matter very much in danish politics where support for the various parties is fairly stable, and rarely subject to massive swings within the space of a few months. Also, usually a party is in power for a couple of terms and then the opposition gains power. In my lifetime we've had the following prime ministers:

1975-1982: Anker Jørgensen (Social democrats)
1982-1993: Poul Schlüther (Conservatives)
1993-2001: Poul Nyrup Rasmussen (Social democrats)
2001-2009: Anders Fogh Rasmussen (Liberals)
2009-2011: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2011-2015: Helle Thorning Schmidt (Social democrats)
2015-2019: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2019-?: Mette Frederiksen (Social democrats)

Just because it hasn't always worked doesn't mean it's not a bad principle to set.

When an election takes place is part of the "rules of the game" of politics. The players of the game should never be able to control the rules.
I just think your basic reasoning is flawed. Asking the people is NOT the same as manipulating election maps at all. Why should you ever be afraid of the verdict of the people in a democracy?

You really don't see how the timing of an election has a major influence on who wins it? Sure, "asking the people" is all well and good, but as this whole Brexit story shows, what exactly is being asked, when it is asked, and how it is asked has an enormous impact on the outcome. And of course, if a government knows it's going to lose elections, it's not going to call early elections. Meaning that an unpopular government could easily cling to power for 4-5 years, but a popular government will call new elections whenever needed to maximize support. I'm sorry but you won't convince me that this isn't problematic from a normative standpoint.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on October 25, 2019, 06:40:55 PM
Well yes, of course the UK wasn't serious about leaving without a deal. The point is that no country in their right mind would be.

Regardless of the Brexit fiasco, it's been years, nay decades, since the UK was in its right mind.  3:)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: BlueSwan on October 26, 2019, 02:51:27 AM
Giving the executive control over the electoral calendar is actually an awful and blatantly undemocratic idea. It's in the same category of terrible ideas as letting incumbents draw their own district lines. The FTPA was obviously not perfect (5-year terms are unacceptably long), but my opinion of it has actually improved a lot with this current crisis. It's working exactly as it should, preventing a power-hungry PM from bullying Parliament into submission and opportunistically exploiting the tides of public opinion to his advantage.
It works just fine here in Denmark. The Prime Minister here can call for an election with 3 weeks notice at any time and for any reason. In certain periods of politicial instability, like the 70's, that meant an election pretty much every other year. In other more stable times, like the last two decades, we're usually fairly close to going the full 4 years. So the last elections have been in 1990, 1994, 1998, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. Also the electoral advantage of picking the date hasn't really shown to matter very much in danish politics where support for the various parties is fairly stable, and rarely subject to massive swings within the space of a few months. Also, usually a party is in power for a couple of terms and then the opposition gains power. In my lifetime we've had the following prime ministers:

1975-1982: Anker Jørgensen (Social democrats)
1982-1993: Poul Schlüther (Conservatives)
1993-2001: Poul Nyrup Rasmussen (Social democrats)
2001-2009: Anders Fogh Rasmussen (Liberals)
2009-2011: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2011-2015: Helle Thorning Schmidt (Social democrats)
2015-2019: Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Liberals)
2019-?: Mette Frederiksen (Social democrats)

Just because it hasn't always worked doesn't mean it's not a bad principle to set.

When an election takes place is part of the "rules of the game" of politics. The players of the game should never be able to control the rules.
I just think your basic reasoning is flawed. Asking the people is NOT the same as manipulating election maps at all. Why should you ever be afraid of the verdict of the people in a democracy?

You really don't see how the timing of an election has a major influence on who wins it? Sure, "asking the people" is all well and good, but as this whole Brexit story shows, what exactly is being asked, when it is asked, and how it is asked has an enormous impact on the outcome. And of course, if a government knows it's going to lose elections, it's not going to call early elections. Meaning that an unpopular government could easily cling to power for 4-5 years, but a popular government will call new elections whenever needed to maximize support. I'm sorry but you won't convince me that this isn't problematic from a normative standpoint.
A parliamentary election isn't comparable to a referendum. Everybody knows what they are voting on in a regular parliamentary election. In Denmark, basically every time we've had a way premature election, it has been because of some kind of parliamentary gridlock, in which case a new election is the natural cause of action. You think it would somehow be better to force that government to continue as a lame duck government for X more years until the period runs out?

Besides, it is not only the prime minister who can call for an election, any common majority in parliament can effectively call an election, by supporting a censure motion against the government.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 27, 2019, 09:24:45 AM
The current news appears to be that the Lib Dems and the SNP have told Boris that they will agree to his election - but they want it three days earlier so he can't rush through his deal and an extension will have to happen. And also because an election suits both parties very nicely.

The government's reaction to this has been unclear, but at the moment it seems that they're considering their options - Boris wants this election of course (given the state of Labour, who in his position wouldn't?) but a Brexit delay might give The Traitor's vehicle a boost that would complicate matters.

Of course, the FPTA means that Labour still hold the cards here - unless Boris uses his hypothetical 'for an election' majority to scrap the FPTA, which is a realistic option for calling an election while putting the metaphorical (or quite possibly literal) middle finger up at Corbyn, a desire for which is something that the Tories, the Lib Dems and SNP all have in common.

Corbyn's response to this is that he thinks its a stunt (possibly but I can't see any reason why either party wouldn't want an election) and that they should wait to take No Deal off the table (which is exactly what an election and a Brexit delay does). Mostly he's just sh!t scared of an election. Probably.

I suppose we'll find out tomorrow. Four days to go!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 27, 2019, 10:01:41 AM
No deal is not officially off the table until the UK formally extends A50. Which hasn't happened yet.

It is also generally accepted that Corbyn and his supporters do want an election soon.

Its largely his whiny brat critics in the PLP who don't.

(plus those who still delude themselves that *this* parliament will vote for a referendum, somehow)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 27, 2019, 12:16:04 PM
If the SNP and the LibDems go along with that, I hope they're ready to take the blame for BoJo's upcoming hard Brexit.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 27, 2019, 12:19:38 PM
The depressing truth is that neither will care much if they win seats for themselves in the process ::)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 28, 2019, 04:35:33 AM
The EU has just agreed to an extension until January 31:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50205603


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on October 28, 2019, 05:16:30 AM
The EU has just agreed to an extension until January 31:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50205603

If there's not an election in December then the EU will be humiliated, since the EU leaders have so often said that an extension needs to serve a specific purpose and not just be an extension for the fun of it.

Corbyn already testing out new excuses:



If you wanted no-deal to be "completely removed" as an option then why did you vote to invoke article 50 which explicitly includes the possibility of no-deal?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 28, 2019, 05:50:34 AM
Because in early 2017 (when that happened) literally nobody saw no deal as a serious prospect?

This really isn't hard.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 28, 2019, 05:53:11 AM
The EU has just agreed to an extension until January 31:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50205603

If there's not an election in December then the EU will be humiliated, since the EU leaders have so often said that an extension needs to serve a specific purpose and not just be an extension for the fun of it.

Well, every additional extension is easier to grant than the one before, because after a while it just becomes a generally accepted custom. Maybe the EU will at one point simply switch to auto-pilot and start to regularly wink new extensions through.


Or as the popular meme put it:

()


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: The Free North on October 28, 2019, 09:03:35 AM




Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Kingpoleon on October 28, 2019, 10:43:24 AM
The SNP is seriously making a name for itself. I imagine if they keep this up, they’ll reach their 2015 results, right?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 28, 2019, 10:47:50 AM
The SNP is seriously making a name for itself. I imagine if they keep this up, they’ll reach their 2015 results, right?

It seems pretty certain that the Tories will lose most of their 2017 gains in Scotland, and likewise the decline of the Tory vote and weakening of unionist tactical voting will sweep away Labour's gains, too. The Lib Dems should hold on to their 2017 gains and maybe make 1-3 more from the SNP, though. So on net the SNP will be slightly below 2015 but probably still above 50 seats. I would predict 51 seats for the SNP, to pull a number slightly from the air.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 28, 2019, 10:58:37 AM
The SNP is seriously making a name for itself. I imagine if they keep this up, they’ll reach their 2015 results, right?

It seems pretty certain that the Tories will lose most of their 2017 gains in Scotland, and likewise the decline of the Tory vote and weakening of unionist tactical voting will sweep away Labour's gains, too. The Lib Dems should hold on to their 2017 gains and maybe make 1-3 more from the SNP, though. So on net the SNP will be slightly below 2015 but probably still above 50 seats. I would predict 51 seats for the SNP, to pull a number slightly from the air.

They'll certainly take North East Fife which the SNP only held by 2 votes last time, but after that their targets dry up. The next one on the list is Ross, Skye and Lochaber, which is Ian Blackford's seat which (among other reasons) therefore makes it unlikely (although certainly something I'd like to happen). Other than that the majorities become too big and the territory not friendly enough unless the Lib Dems have a very, VERY big surge, which north of the border at least looks unlikely.

I agree with the rest of your analysis, although I think the Tories will probably hold on to 3-4 of their current seats. Unfortunate as the SNP remain as awful and despicable as ever, but when the two main British parties are as awful as they are, I can hardly blame the people of Scotland for voting for the alternative.

-

In other news, Labour appear to be staking a Remain position for the election, despite having spent the last two and a half years obsessively chasing a hard Brexit. Unfortunately, its a tactic that will almost certainly work and keep them most/all of their vulnerable remainy seats. Then, after the election, when they get right back to work enabling Brexit, everyone will scratch their heads wondering how on earth that could have happened. There's almost a poetry to it.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 28, 2019, 11:03:14 AM
Boris Johnson to Put Forward Bill 'Almost Identical' to Lib Dems And SNP (Dec 9th election) If Tonight's Election Vote (Dec 12th) Fails


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 28, 2019, 11:10:15 AM
Looks like LAB will abstain on the Dec 12th election proposal due to massive LAB MP rebellion against having an election before Brexit is resolved .  But Johnson can outflank them by just coming in with the SNP/LDEM proposal which as long as SNPl/LDEM backs it means Johnson will have his election on Dec 9th.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 28, 2019, 11:15:37 AM
My understanding is that the SNP wants an election not just because it will gain seats but because former SNP leader Alex Salmond goes on trial early in the new year to face charges, including for attempted rape and sexual assault.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 28, 2019, 11:40:29 AM
The parliamentary timetable for the secondary route around FTPA is extremely tight - it isn't impossible, not at all, but there will be a need to get everything in order or the clock starts to become a problem.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 28, 2019, 11:41:06 AM
So what is the sting in "almost identical", I wonder?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 28, 2019, 11:50:51 AM
So what is the sting in "almost identical", I wonder?

And it is open to amendment which means LAB/LDEM/SNP can add stuff like
1) Everyone gets a postal ballot
2) 16 and 17 year olds can vote
etc etc


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 28, 2019, 12:17:48 PM
LibDems refusing to compromise on the date, apparently.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 28, 2019, 12:35:11 PM
LibDems refusing to compromise on the date, apparently.

Whats the big deal between Holding an election Dec 9th vs holding it on Dec 10th


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 28, 2019, 12:35:26 PM
LibDems refusing to compromise on the date, apparently.

My understanding is that the difference between Dec 9 and Dec 12 is that Dec 9 means Johnson will have no time to get a deal through before the election.   I think Johnson has mostly accepted that so that is why he is happy to go with Dec 9 if Dec 12 does not go through.   


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 28, 2019, 12:38:04 PM
If it seems that the Johnson bill that is identical to the  SNP/LDEM plan of Dec 9 is passed then the optics becomes very bad for LAB.  The election will be about an election that LAB is too chicken to participate in but everyone else then wanted anyway.  In fact that might be be impetus for LAB to perhaps agreed to pass Johnson's plan to go into the election with the Brexit plan passed and not Brexit still not delivered.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 28, 2019, 12:49:02 PM
LibDems refusing to compromise on the date, apparently.

Whats the big deal between Holding an election Dec 9th vs holding it on Dec 10th

Boris' date is the 12th not the 9th. And that extra 3 days are days he could use to push his deal through before the election.

If it seems that the Johnson bill that is identical to the  SNP/LDEM plan of Dec 9 is passed then the optics becomes very bad for LAB.  The election will be about an election that LAB is too chicken to participate in but everyone else then wanted anyway.  In fact that might be be impetus for LAB to perhaps agreed to pass Johnson's plan to go into the election with the Brexit plan passed and not Brexit still not delivered.

In terms of electoral performance, I highly doubt this will make any difference.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on October 28, 2019, 02:06:05 PM
Looks like tomorrow is the day when Labour will be dragged kicking and screaming into an election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 28, 2019, 02:09:12 PM
Why in God's name do the Lib Dems want an election that'll probably produce a comfortable Tory majority before the current, relatively inoffensive deal can be passed? Are they of the belief that they'll sweep to victory and BRING DOWN BREXIT instead?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: President Johnson on October 28, 2019, 02:24:27 PM
Jesus Christ, this parliament is turning the UK into a laughingstock in front of the whole world. Set a date for new elections, the stalemate needs to end.

I don't understand the Liberal Democrats here, even though I'd vote for them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 28, 2019, 02:26:27 PM
Government has refused to go with the 9th: introducing a bill tomorrow for the 12th. As noted above, this date is problematic for the opposition parties. They would presumably need very firm assurances as to no silly buggers, but then the problem of trust looms. SNP have also made increasingly loud noises about possible amendments - votes for 16-17 year-olds for instance - that, of course, the government would not accept.

In other words, once again it really isn't certain what is going to happen.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 28, 2019, 02:39:15 PM
Why in God's name do the Lib Dems want an election that'll probably produce a comfortable Tory majority before the current, relatively inoffensive deal can be passed? Are they of the belief that they'll sweep to victory and BRING DOWN BREXIT instead?

lmao

Anyway, there are two clear reasons I think:

1) Political party has decided there is an opportunity it will take to advance its own prospects. Might one suggest that this is not as shocking a development as some seem to think

2) It is not the Lib Dem's responsibility to bend their actions and policies around what Corbyn wants. Maybe if he wasn't such a total disaster the Tories wouldn't be heading for a majority. It's not in the Lib Dems' interests to refuse to take an electoral opportunity because it isn't an optimal time for a completely different party.

On a personal level, if Labour and their supporters have been trying to put people off the Lib Dems by their attacks over the past few days, then if I'm indicative of anything (and I'm probably not) it has had completely the opposite effect. "The Lib Dems have the audacity to not do exactly what Corbyn wants them to and do everything they do in Labour's interests not their own. How dare they?!?" The arrogance and entitlement of it sickens me and strengthens my resolve to vote against the pathetic shadow of the once great Labour party.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 28, 2019, 02:41:47 PM
Why in God's name do the Lib Dems want an election that'll probably produce a comfortable Tory majority before the current, relatively inoffensive deal can be passed? Are they of the belief that they'll sweep to victory and BRING DOWN BREXIT instead?

lmao

I said "relatively". Do you honestly think the election will produce a Parliament whose Brexit stance will be better? If so, you could have just said yes to my second question.

Quote
Anyway, there are two clear reasons I think:

1) Political party has decided there is an opportunity it will take to advance its own prospects. Might one suggest that this is not as shocking a development as some seem to think

2) It is not the Lib Dem's responsibility to bend their actions and policies around what Corbyn wants. Maybe if he wasn't such a total disaster the Tories wouldn't be heading for a majority. It's not in the Lib Dems' interests to refuse to take an electoral opportunity because it isn't an optimal time for a completely different party.

Okay, so you're admitting the Lib Dems are motivated by increasing their own electoral prospects rather than actually stopping or even mitigating Brexit. Gotcha. (And, no, I'm not under the impression that Labour is any better about this.)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 28, 2019, 02:47:23 PM
Anyway, there are two clear reasons I think:

1) Political party has decided there is an opportunity it will take to advance its own prospects. Might one suggest that this is not as shocking a development as some seem to think

2) It is not the Lib Dem's responsibility to bend their actions and policies around what Corbyn wants. Maybe if he wasn't such a total disaster the Tories wouldn't be heading for a majority. It's not in the Lib Dems' interests to refuse to take an electoral opportunity because it isn't an optimal time for a completely different party.

Okay, so you're admitting the Lib Dems are motivated by increasing their own electoral prospects rather than actually stopping or even mitigating Brexit. Gotcha. (And, no, I'm not under the impression that Labour is any better about this.)

Well, I could argue that the Lib Dems think they can win more MPs in an election and a Parliament with more Remain supporting MPs is a Parliament that can be used to stop or mitigate Brexit. And I would to an extent, but in general, no, I'm not under any illusions that this is anything except party political. And who cares? Every party, in every democratic country in the world, in every circumstance does the thing that will benefit them the most electorally. It's just a fact of life in politics.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 28, 2019, 02:58:18 PM
Anyway, there are two clear reasons I think:

1) Political party has decided there is an opportunity it will take to advance its own prospects. Might one suggest that this is not as shocking a development as some seem to think

2) It is not the Lib Dem's responsibility to bend their actions and policies around what Corbyn wants. Maybe if he wasn't such a total disaster the Tories wouldn't be heading for a majority. It's not in the Lib Dems' interests to refuse to take an electoral opportunity because it isn't an optimal time for a completely different party.

Okay, so you're admitting the Lib Dems are motivated by increasing their own electoral prospects rather than actually stopping or even mitigating Brexit. Gotcha. (And, no, I'm not under the impression that Labour is any better about this.)

Well, I could argue that the Lib Dems think they can win more MPs in an election and a Parliament with more Remain supporting MPs is a Parliament that can be used to stop or mitigate Brexit. And I would to an extent, but in general, no, I'm not under any illusions that this is anything except party political. And who cares? Every party, in every democratic country in the world, in every circumstance does the thing that will benefit them the most electorally. It's just a fact of life in politics.

That's fair.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 28, 2019, 03:11:15 PM
Everyone involved is acting based on what they presume (whether rightly or not) to be their best electoral interests. It is not particularly edifying, because it is very blatant, but the issue of the timing of an election is always like that.

What I will note, though, is that it really isn't certain quite what the outcome of an election would be. Not just for the usual reason that much can change during a campaign* but because there isn't as polling uniformity as looks at first glance, it just happens that the polling firms most likely to show a substantial Conservative lead are also the polling firms who have weekly contracts with media organisations (and one even publishes more than that). I will also note, and this is important, that back in 2010 the Conservatives had a seven point lead nationally on a vote of 37% and still did not win an overall majority. As the vote share of the winning party drops, the sort of lead it needs to win a majority increases.2. This is before we start to distinguish between a bare majority and a comfortable majority...

1. And that while changes on the scale of what happened last time were unprecedented, this time any changes would not have to be so vast to make a big difference.
2. The 2005 election was a curious aberration to this rule for a very specific set of factors and is not relevant.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Continential on October 28, 2019, 04:09:24 PM
Will the Lib Dems get 100 seats or will they get a little bit above Clegg's 2010 seat count?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Continential on October 28, 2019, 04:11:30 PM
Jesus Christ, this parliament is turning the UK into a laughingstock in front of the whole world. Set a date for new elections, the stalemate needs to end.

I don't understand the Liberal Democrats here, even though I'd vote for them.
The Lib Dems is basically Social and Economic Liberals with Conservative Remainders.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 28, 2019, 04:15:46 PM
Another Reason why Lib Dems want election on 9th and not on 12th, is because many Students will have gone home to their parents on the 12th and therefore not be present in the Constituency they are domiciled in, and will not be able to vote.

Two words: Postal Vote.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 28, 2019, 04:17:37 PM
Will the Lib Dems get 100 seats or will they get a little bit above Clegg's 2010 seat count?

Or will they actually get significantly less than even that?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 28, 2019, 04:18:12 PM
Will the Lib Dems get 100 seats or will they get a little bit above Clegg's 2010 seat count?

I'd be very surprised (and elated) if they got more than Clegg did in 2010


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 28, 2019, 04:19:14 PM
Will the Lib Dems get 100 seats or will they get a little bit above Clegg's 2010 seat count?

I'd be very surprised (and elated) if they got more than Clegg did in 2010

That would almost certainly mean (as then) no Tory majority.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: RaphaelDLG on October 28, 2019, 09:54:20 PM
Who benefits long-term from FPTP in the UK (as opposed to PR), other than obviously SNP and the other regional parties?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 28, 2019, 10:32:01 PM
Will the Lib Dems get 100 seats or will they get a little bit above Clegg's 2010 seat count?

I'd be very surprised (and elated) if they got more than Clegg did in 2010

That would almost certainly mean (as then) no Tory majority.

Well, let's hope so.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 28, 2019, 10:50:47 PM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on October 28, 2019, 11:43:17 PM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 28, 2019, 11:49:29 PM
Children, children, Labour and the Lib Dems are both soulless coteries of unprincipled slimeballs clawing desperately at scraps of power instead of lifting a finger to help the UK out of this mess! There's plenty to go around!


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Pericles on October 29, 2019, 12:01:29 AM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.

If you want to know why the Tories will probably win, just look at these posts.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 29, 2019, 12:03:54 AM
The facts are in plain sight. There are two parties that are preparing to give BoJo (more or less) what he wants, and one that isn't.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 29, 2019, 02:33:29 AM
Oh, no question there. There's plenty of blame to go around. No one is innocent in this story.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 29, 2019, 05:56:08 AM
Looks like LAB will back early elections.  The optics of having to go into an election while being against the elections finally broke them.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on October 29, 2019, 06:02:19 AM
Looks like LAB will back early elections.  The optics of having to go into an election while being against the elections finally broke them.

What a complete and utter waste of time this entire charade was then. It's like Corbyn only makes decisions these days that he knows will annoy me personally.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: jaichind on October 29, 2019, 06:21:34 AM
Now LAB is on board for an election I suspect there will be all sorts of LAB-LDEM-SNP amendments on postal ballots, 16-17 year old voting, EU nationals voting etc etc.  If they do this I suspect it will backfire on them as it would just provoke a massive turnout of the pro-Brexit unwashed.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 29, 2019, 06:47:36 AM
No one who would be sufficiently annoyed at an extension of the franchise (if successful) to go out and vote because of that annoyance would not have already been sure of going out and voting. Things aren't like that.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on October 29, 2019, 07:42:24 AM
Anyway, the amendments don't matter, because there isn't any support from the Tory benches (or the ex-Tory independents) for any expansion of the franchise. They'll just get voted down.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 29, 2019, 07:51:11 AM
Anyway, the amendments don't matter, because there isn't any support from the Tory benches (or the ex-Tory independents) for any expansion of the franchise. They'll just get voted down.

You don't think some of the ex-Tories might actually back enfranchising EU nationals?

(unlike 16-17 year olds, this one would be relatively simple to administer as well)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: PoliticalShelter on October 29, 2019, 07:59:08 AM
Anyway, the amendments don't matter, because there isn't any support from the Tory benches (or the ex-Tory independents) for any expansion of the franchise. They'll just get voted down.

Plus there is a decent chance that the ammendments will be thrown out by the Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle as it would be a money resoultion (it requires money to extend the franchise) so it would be deemed 'out of scope' for the election bill.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on October 29, 2019, 08:32:46 AM
Anyway, the amendments don't matter, because there isn't any support from the Tory benches (or the ex-Tory independents) for any expansion of the franchise. They'll just get voted down.

You don't think some of the ex-Tories might actually back enfranchising EU nationals?

(unlike 16-17 year olds, this one would be relatively simple to administer as well)

Most of the ex-Tories are still essentially Tories and will abide by the Tory whip. The handful who might vote for such an amendment would probably be cancelled out by grump Labour/LD MPs with Very Real Concerns about the wisdom of such a change.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Kingpoleon on October 29, 2019, 08:34:58 AM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 29, 2019, 08:43:34 AM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on October 29, 2019, 08:51:40 AM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?
Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 29, 2019, 08:58:32 AM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?
Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.

Other parties don't get to dictate to Labour who their leader should be.

Even if Corbyn stepped aside for some reason in that scenario, his successor would also be from the left. Because that is what the majority of the party currently wants.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on October 29, 2019, 10:54:06 AM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?
Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.

Other parties don't get to dictate to Labour who their leader should be.

Even if Corbyn stepped aside for some reason in that scenario, his successor would also be from the left. Because that is what the majority of the party currently wants.
Every party in a coalition has to make some sort of concession, and the Labour left won't be able to govern alone because that's not what the majority of the UK electorate currantly wants.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Helsinkian on October 29, 2019, 11:03:58 AM
So the left-wingers and liberals want to give the vote not only to 16-year-olds but also to EU nationals living in the UK. So I could move to the UK tomorrow and if there's a general election the day after my arrival I could vote? What's the sense in that? Seemingly it would make the whole institution of citizenship irrelevant: why would people even seek to become nationalized citizens if they can vote regardless?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Shadows on October 29, 2019, 12:25:26 PM
Why are people acting like the Lib-Dems matter? They had like 15 seats & will get less than 20 seats again, maybe even less than 15. They will never be able to dictate who will be the Labour leader. If they don't support a Corbyn led Lab-SNP-Green alliance they will essentially cause another GE (3 times in 3 years) & there will be 2 flanks - Lab-SNP-GREEN vs Tory/DUP.

All the smaller parties, SNP, GREEN are much more progressive & left wing than Labour/Corbyn. The Labour ordinary members are fully behind Corbyn. LibDems are essentially the B Team of Tories. They propped up Cameron & supported his tax cuts & welfare cuts & austerity agenda.

More the GE Campaign takes place, more the Lib-Dems will fall. They have got no future. Look @ how their voters (80%+) would prefer a Corbyn led Government than No Deal brexit & how their power hungry leaders like Swinson would like to stop it. Lib-Dem voters are quite liberal & not idealogically far from Labour. They have much MUCH more in common with Labour than the Tories.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Shadows on October 29, 2019, 12:30:29 PM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

SNP even in last election wanted to join a Corbyn Government & openly said they wanted to stop the Tories & would want to be part of a progressive alternative. SNP & GREENs both are very progressive & more liberal than Labour. Their ideology on many economic issues is more similar to Corbyn than the Blair "New Labour" model which they detest. I can easily see a Corbyn led Lab-SNP-GREEN combination as they are natural ideological allies but Lib-Dems have no ideology & are essentially now a home for Conservative & Labour Rebel Hard Remainers. They sided with Tories in government for 5 years & imposed tax cuts & austerity & welfare cuts & will do it again given the chance.

I can see Tories losing another 20-30 seats.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 29, 2019, 12:48:53 PM
So BoJo is going to lose every battle but win the war. Congrats, everyone. Really played things well.

And yes, all the "opposition" parties failed their constituent, though none more egregiously and opportunistically than the LibDems.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 29, 2019, 01:19:17 PM
So the left-wingers and liberals want to give the vote not only to 16-year-olds but also to EU nationals living in the UK. So I could move to the UK tomorrow and if there's a general election the day after my arrival I could vote? What's the sense in that? Seemingly it would make the whole institution of citizenship irrelevant: why would people even seek to become nationalized citizens if they can vote regardless?

You would have to be registered, which is required to be done in advance, so people who arrive the day before can't vote. The UK already allows European citizens who aren't UK citizens to vote in local government elections and European elections, so it's just general elections for which this would be a change. And, as noted, the UK also already allows Commonwealth citizens (and citizens of Ireland) who aren't UK citizens to vote in general elections, so it's not a new concept vis-a-vis general elections, either.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Blair on October 29, 2019, 04:12:43 PM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.

This is pretty false from someone who somehow claims to be a blairite (although I remember seeing you advocated getting rid of social housing in the U.K. so....)

Labour MPs have opposed the meaningful votes 4 times, have supported a whole range of amendments that allowed a lot of good stuff to happen and have supported a second referendum. Sure it’s been long, slow and tedious but the PLP has done its job.

In regards to principles The SNP want independence and the Lib Dem’s want a route to relevance; opposing Brexit whilst having an election focused around one benefits both parties hugely.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on October 29, 2019, 05:34:31 PM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?
Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.

Other parties don't get to dictate to Labour who their leader should be.

Even if Corbyn stepped aside for some reason in that scenario, his successor would also be from the left. Because that is what the majority of the party currently wants.
Every party in a coalition has to make some sort of concession, and the Labour left won't be able to govern alone because that's not what the majority of the UK electorate currantly wants.

This line of reasoning still doesnt make sense. Labour has no reason to not choose someone from the Left(especially considering much of the party/leadership/councils/etc. are now Labour Left). If the Lib Dems are making such ridiculous demands, than they must have won more than 100 seats.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 29, 2019, 05:35:06 PM
So BoJo is going to lose every battle but win the war. Congrats, everyone. Really played things well.

And yes, all the "opposition" parties failed their constituent, though none more egregiously and opportunistically than the LibDems.

Simple the voters agree with Boris more than they do with the opposition party


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 29, 2019, 07:14:41 PM
So BoJo is going to lose every battle but win the war. Congrats, everyone. Really played things well.

And yes, all the "opposition" parties failed their constituent, though none more egregiously and opportunistically than the LibDems.

Simple the voters agree with Boris more than they do with the opposition party

37% do, as things currently stand. (https://projects.economist.com/uk-elections/poll-tracker/)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GoTfan on October 29, 2019, 07:54:31 PM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?
Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.

Other parties don't get to dictate to Labour who their leader should be.

Even if Corbyn stepped aside for some reason in that scenario, his successor would also be from the left. Because that is what the majority of the party currently wants.
Every party in a coalition has to make some sort of concession, and the Labour left won't be able to govern alone because that's not what the majority of the UK electorate currantly wants.

Honestly I'm just waiting for you to scream that Corbyn's two successful leadership camlaigns were illegitimate.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on October 29, 2019, 08:34:46 PM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?
Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.

Other parties don't get to dictate to Labour who their leader should be.

Even if Corbyn stepped aside for some reason in that scenario, his successor would also be from the left. Because that is what the majority of the party currently wants.
Every party in a coalition has to make some sort of concession, and the Labour left won't be able to govern alone because that's not what the majority of the UK electorate currantly wants.

Honestly I'm just waiting for you to scream that Corbyn's two successful leadership camlaigns were illegitimate.
Seriously? Of course I don't think that, but if Labour ends up with a minority (but Lib/Lab/SNP/Grn is a majority, of course) and they want to form a government, then they'll have to make some concessions, which probably means Corbyn isn't PM. That's a perfectly reasonable view to hold.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: pikachu on October 29, 2019, 08:52:40 PM
kind of love how theresa may’s resigned, the tories managed to go through a full leadership election, and now there will be a full ge campaign/election in the same span of time between the first and sixth democratic debates


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: GoTfan on October 30, 2019, 12:57:54 AM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?
Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.

Other parties don't get to dictate to Labour who their leader should be.

Even if Corbyn stepped aside for some reason in that scenario, his successor would also be from the left. Because that is what the majority of the party currently wants.
Every party in a coalition has to make some sort of concession, and the Labour left won't be able to govern alone because that's not what the majority of the UK electorate currantly wants.

Honestly I'm just waiting for you to scream that Corbyn's two successful leadership camlaigns were illegitimate.
Seriously? Of course I don't think that, but if Labour ends up with a minority (but Lib/Lab/SNP/Grn is a majority, of course) and they want to form a government, then they'll have to make some concessions, which probably means Corbyn isn't PM. That's a perfectly reasonable view to hold.

The only way they could dictate the leader is if the Lib Dems win 80-100 seats.The Greens are to the left of Labour anyway, and I'm not sure the SNP would ally with anyone not willing to have a second independence referendum.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 30, 2019, 09:33:32 AM
I am starting a Go Fund Me to buy a giant saw so that we can saw off the Island and send them North.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on October 30, 2019, 09:47:33 AM
The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.
Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?
Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.

Other parties don't get to dictate to Labour who their leader should be.

Even if Corbyn stepped aside for some reason in that scenario, his successor would also be from the left. Because that is what the majority of the party currently wants.
Every party in a coalition has to make some sort of concession, and the Labour left won't be able to govern alone because that's not what the majority of the UK electorate currantly wants.

Honestly I'm just waiting for you to scream that Corbyn's two successful leadership camlaigns were illegitimate.
Seriously? Of course I don't think that, but if Labour ends up with a minority (but Lib/Lab/SNP/Grn is a majority, of course) and they want to form a government, then they'll have to make some concessions, which probably means Corbyn isn't PM. That's a perfectly reasonable view to hold.

The only way they could dictate the leader is if the Lib Dems win 80-100 seats.The Greens are to the left of Labour anyway, and I'm not sure the SNP would ally with anyone not willing to have a second independence referendum.
The greens will have one seat. Basically, there are two possible outcomes in this election: Lib-Lab (+SNP?) and Conservative (+DUP/BXP if necessary). Nether of these outcomes allow for PM Corbyn.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Omega21 on October 30, 2019, 09:56:13 AM
So what happens if there is a Conservative-Brexit Majority?
 
Ok, maybe a Conservative PM, but the Brexit party wouldn't allow his deal to pass and would go for no deal, so we would be in the same position as now.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Zaybay on October 30, 2019, 10:08:59 AM
So what happens if there is a Conservative-Brexit Majority?
 
Ok, maybe a Conservative PM, but the Brexit party wouldn't allow his deal to pass and would go for no deal, so we would be in the same position as now.

The problem is that the Brexit Party likely wouldnt even have any members of parliament for them to have influence. And even if they were going to pickup seats, the amount of vote splitting that would allow for the BP to get enough seats to be relevant(lets say 15) would almost certainly kill the Conservatives and give Corbyn the premiership.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Continential on October 30, 2019, 11:20:20 AM
So what happens if there is a Conservative-Brexit Majority?
 
Ok, maybe a Conservative PM, but the Brexit party wouldn't allow his deal to pass and would go for no deal, so we would be in the same position as now.

The problem is that the Brexit Party likely wouldnt even have any members of parliament for them to have influence. And even if they were going to pickup seats, the amount of vote splitting that would allow for the BP to get enough seats to be relevant(lets say 15) would almost certainly kill the Conservatives and give Corbyn the premiership.
I think that the Brexit party will be UKIP 2.0


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 31, 2019, 02:00:15 AM
Is Bercow's successor getting elected today?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: IceAgeComing on October 31, 2019, 05:45:04 AM
Bercow will see out this term: there's absolutely no point in this Parliament electing the next speaker when its being dissolved in five days.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 31, 2019, 06:40:46 AM
Yes, that would make sense (and has happened before, eg at the 1983 and 1992 GEs)

That opens the admittedly fairly remote prospect of the current front runner to replace him (Lindsay Hoyle) losing his seat if the Tories have an exceptionally good election.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on October 31, 2019, 11:02:34 AM
Is Bercow's successor getting elected today?

Reports say it'll happen on Monday - there have been suggestions that if the outcome of the general election isn't decisive, the last thing you'd want is to have to worry about electing a Speaker as well.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on October 31, 2019, 11:19:53 AM
Is Bercow's successor getting elected today?

Reports say it'll happen on Monday - there have been suggestions that if the outcome of the general election isn't decisive, the last thing you'd want is to have to worry about electing a Speaker as well.

Yes, that seems to be the case. Not convinced personally.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on November 01, 2019, 08:55:03 AM
Just saw that UKIP’s leader resigned. AGAIN. Party needs to just disband.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Kingpoleon on November 02, 2019, 08:07:36 PM
Just saw that UKIP’s leader resigned. AGAIN. Party needs to just disband.
Their big mistake was choosing a bland technocrat like Bolton over an actually smart guy who believed in The Party *cough* Whittle *cough*. With Farage gone and no decent replacement in sight, they’ll eventually merge with the Brexit Party or disband (officially or unofficially).


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Continential on November 04, 2019, 10:20:30 AM
I wonder when Change UK will disband? It was doomed to fail in the first place.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lumine on November 04, 2019, 10:36:34 AM
I wonder when Change UK will disband? It was doomed to fail in the first place.

Well, Soubry, Gapes and Leslie are all standing again under the "party", so right after the election? Even with the Lib Dems standing aside for Soubry in Broxtowe I can't see how on earth any of the three would maintain their seats.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 04, 2019, 10:41:29 AM
I wonder when Change UK will disband? It was doomed to fail in the first place.

Well, Soubry, Gapes and Leslie are all standing again under the "party", so right after the election? Even with the Lib Dems standing aside for Soubry in Broxtowe I can't see how on earth any of the three would maintain their seats.

It will be interesting (well, a bit) to see if they field anybody else.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Krago on November 07, 2019, 10:47:24 PM
Here's a question from a Canadian: are there lawn signs (yard signs) in UK elections?

In Canada and the U.S., candidate signs dot both private and public property (usually at intersections), while in Quebec they only appear on telephone poles.  What is the situation in Great Britain?  Do they show the candidate's name and party, or does the candidate's photo appear as well?

Also, I've seen UK candidates wearing rosettes in their party colours.  Is that only for candidates, or do campaign workers wear them too?  What about ordinary voters?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: cp on November 08, 2019, 02:15:21 AM
Great question! As a Canadian living in the UK I feel particularly well placed to answer this :P

Lawn sign use in the UK is basically identical to their use in Canada. There are far fewer actual lawns, of course, but people will put posters in the street facing windows of their flat or appended to the side of the building. The signs are colour coded by party, but vary in content much as they do in Canada - sometimes with faces, sometimes with party leader, sometimes with a slogan.

The rosettes - which are objectively ridiculous, btw - can be worn by anyone canvassing for a party, not just the candidate. In fact, among volunteers it can be something of a treat to be the one who 'gets' the rosette that day. Ordinary voters will wear little buttons if they care a lot, but usually don't.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 08, 2019, 03:50:37 AM
The rosettes - which are objectively ridiculous, btw -

I like them. :(

tbh there's a lot about British political culture that I really appreciate, although there's just as much if not more that I despise


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 08, 2019, 07:41:19 AM
Window-posters and lawn-signs are nothing like as common as they were even twenty years ago, let alone before. This, of course, is a reflection of the loosening of partisan ties. Still, if you know what to look out for they can still be a useful gauge.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 08, 2019, 11:42:14 AM
Window-posters and lawn-signs are nothing like as common as they were even twenty years ago, let alone before. This, of course, is a reflection of the loosening of partisan ties. Still, if you know what to look out for they can still be a useful gauge.

Also growing fears of vandalism, at least in some places.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: parochial boy on November 08, 2019, 12:08:52 PM
My memory of the one GE I was living in the UK for was that garden signs were more an indicator how wealthy / transient the population of an area was than anything else


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 08, 2019, 02:34:10 PM
"Dawn Butler, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Jess Phillips and Angela Rayner seen as possible successors to Tom Watson"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/07/who-are-the-favourites-to-take-over-as-labour-deputy-leader (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/07/who-are-the-favourites-to-take-over-as-labour-deputy-leader)

Is Jess Phillips really a serious possibility?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 08, 2019, 02:42:51 PM
She has a genuine popular following of sorts. I don't know how many are presently Labour members or how many of those who are not would pay the fee to vote for her in such an eventuality, mind.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on November 08, 2019, 07:29:30 PM
I'm unashamedly biased here and don't care who knows it, but her "following" genuinely appears highly concentrated in the media and its hanger-on zoomers.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Kingpoleon on November 09, 2019, 12:44:38 PM
Hmm... Angela Rayner probably has my support.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on November 10, 2019, 09:53:54 AM
In banter news, yet another UKIP AM has left the party in Wales, leading Neil Hamilton to lead a caucus consisting of ... himself.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin on November 24, 2019, 02:44:30 PM
The BBC has apparently been caught editing a Q&A with Boris Johnson to make him look good and receiving applause from the audience, instead of sounding like an idiot and getting laughed at.

BBC News editing the audience reaction to Boris Johnson is really not oka (https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2019/11/23/bbc-news-editing-the-audience-reaction-to-boris-johnson-is-really-not-okay/)


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: KaiserDave on December 01, 2019, 01:12:38 PM
According to the polling summary, Labour and Tories are both increasing. Is this just the Lib Dems losing their share of the vote, or is it that Labour could catch up?


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: CumbrianLefty on December 01, 2019, 03:44:21 PM
There is a thread in the elections section for that :)

But in actual fact, the overall Tory lead appears to be falling modestly.


Title: Re: UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.
Post by: DaWN on December 01, 2019, 03:47:49 PM
The Lib Dems have actually been fairly stable for the last two weeks or so at 15% or a few points south of that - I think the Labour increase might be more due to undecideds and possible a few soft Tories swinging their way. Whether that will be enough for 2017-redux who's to say. Mostly this time I think the Lib Dems do have a higher floor than last time though because of Brexit, and it looks like they might have reached it. 'Might' definitely being the operative word there.

EDIT: Just realised this isn't the election thread lol. Will quote this post over there.