Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: Arbitrage1980 on July 05, 2019, 08:59:53 pm



Title: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: Arbitrage1980 on July 05, 2019, 08:59:53 pm
It's a GOP stronghold, but surprised that Bush's 67.3% there in 04 was higher than Reagan 84 and Nixon 72. It was the best performance since Eisenhower 56. Why was Bush so strong there that year?


Title: Re: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud on July 06, 2019, 02:09:34 pm
It's a GOP stronghold, but surprised that Bush's 67.3% there in 04 was higher than Reagan 84 and Nixon 72. It was the best performance since Eisenhower 56. Why was Bush so strong there that year?

Catholics pissed about gay marriage.


Title: Re: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: Old School Republican on July 06, 2019, 03:32:13 pm
Wait didnít Reagan get over 70% in WOW


Title: Re: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: Does the title even matter? on July 06, 2019, 10:40:14 pm

No, only 65.7%. In fact, we find an interesting result in the 1984/1988 results.

1984
Reagan: 92,426
Mondale: 47,313

1988
Bush: 90,467
Dukakis: 57,598

So even Reagan's 65.7% was largely just a case of horrible turnout for Mondale.


Title: Re: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: TJ in Oregon on July 08, 2019, 12:23:19 am
WOW have long been Republican Counties, but they weren't as supercharged for the GOP decades ago as they were in the Bush/Obama eras. At that point the country was a vastly different place and Waukesha was less different than upscale suburban counties in other metropolitan areas.

The real question I guess is why WOW was trending right while most northern suburbs were trending left through the Clinton/Bush/Obama years.


Title: Re: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: #Solid4096 on July 08, 2019, 09:10:38 am
Waukesha actually trended R in both 2008 and 2012. Relative to his NPV share, Kerry actually did better in Waukesha County, WI than Obama ever did.


Title: Re: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: TDAS04 on July 08, 2019, 09:39:49 pm
Romney almost carried the county by the same margin (maybe Paul Ryan helped a little in that part of Wisconsin).


Title: Re: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on July 19, 2019, 11:15:51 pm
WOW have long been Republican Counties, but they weren't as supercharged for the GOP decades ago as they were in the Bush/Obama eras. At that point the country was a vastly different place and Waukesha was less different than upscale suburban counties in other metropolitan areas.

The real question I guess is why WOW was trending right while most northern suburbs were trending left through the Clinton/Bush/Obama years.

Yeah, if anything, the Chicago suburbs just to the south were more like the WOW suburbs of the day, the hyper Republican bastions that were even more conservative than their already conservative peers. This was especially true of DuPage County, which hosted some of the most blisteringly right-wing suburbs in the country right alongside Orange County in California (Goldwater won both by double digits).

Iíve heard it said that at least part of the reason for the continuing stalwart tendencies of the WOW suburbs is due in part to the old-school political dynamic between the managerial class that has a disproportionate presence in WOW and the labor class located mainly in Milwaukee. Another explanation Iíve heard relates to the ample presence of conservative talk radio in the region, but I suspect thatís more likely to be a symptom rather than a cause. There has to be a deeper root reason to WOWís stubborn conservative bent. Iíd be curious to hear your take, TJ.



Title: Re: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: 538Electoral on July 31, 2019, 05:01:37 am
The county almost voted less Republican in 2016 than in 2008. If Trump can get Waukesha back to Bush-Romney margins, He'll gain around 20,000 votes and easily carry the state again assuming he holds everything else he won.


Title: Re: Bush 04 in Waukesha County, WI
Post by: coolface1572 on October 07, 2019, 06:45:09 pm
Perhaps even more interesting was the shift away from the gop in 2016. Trump got the least amount of votes for a republican since 2000.

As a resident of Waukesha County my whole life, I met quite few people who left the GOP due to Trump, including myself. And it's not hard to see why. Most people here are relatively high income and are not affected nearly as much, if at all, by immigration and trade deals. Also many here believed he was just plain racist. Before trump there were gop yard signs for Romney, Scott Walker, and many others for years. Yet in 2016 there really were only Ron Johnson signs.

This really is GOP anti-trump land. During the 2018 gop senate primary, I saw a lot of Leah Vukmir support and not a single person for Kevin Nicholson.