Talk Elections

Regardless of the 2020 election, the 2024 Republican presidential field will most likely be packed.

Which Republican can do the best to worst with black voters overall, to make inroads with black voters, 13% of the electorate?

The difference between the best and worst performance would be the difference between 3% and 8% of the black vote.

True, but what I mean is which candidates would perform the best and which the least?

Mike Pence would do terrible among black voters


Someone like Nikki Haley, would do a bit better


But as EC said this is between like 3% and 10% of the black vote


Black voters are solidly Democratic

Best: An actual black Republican like Tim Scott or John James

Worst: Pence.

I haven't seen any evidence that black Republicans do noticeably better with black voters than a generic white Republican, look at Tim Scott's victory maps in South Carolina.

This. Also, Social Conservatives in general tend to do better with African Americans at primary level, for example Mike Huckabee in 2008.

What about Gov. DeSantis?

He ran a rigid 2018 campaign, but he is doing fairly well right now.

Can he make some inroads?

Worst is easily Tom cotton.

How many black people even voted in the 2008 Republican Primary?

I can't find any info for the republican primaries but there is plenty for the dem primaries that year, probably because of Obama and all that.

Would Pence doing badly with black voters be because of association with Trump or for some other reason?

No, it would be because he's a Republican.

All of them would do terribly, but Tom Cotton would probably be the worst overall. As for the best, maybe someone who can distance themself from Trump?

Pence did well in his 2012 governor's race, before he was tied to Trump.

Someone said that Pence would do worse with black voters than other Republicans.

The obvious answer is Rand Paul.

I don't really see why.

Rubio or Rand Paul can do good with Blk voters and Cruz, Pence or Cotton will do terrible

I guess because he'd have the hardest time distancing himself from Trump.

Don't understand why people are suggesting black Republicans like John James and Tim Scott would do best when they literally had average GOP performance among black voters in their races...against white candidates.

Tim Scott, John James, Nikki Haley, Mia Love

Any Republican would get about 10% of the black vote. Maybe if this was a gubernatorial election (Hogan did very well with black voters last year) but it will be stuck in that range for presidential elections for probably our whole lifetimes.

Charlie Baker actually got 48% of the black vote in Massachusetts last year, but I suppose that isn't as impressive as it sounds given that he won by 33% and there's a large number of white liberals in the state.

I think Hawley (or a similar type) would do the best with black voters. Haley (or similar) would do worst.