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Title: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: FairBol on June 08, 2019, 09:58:26 AM Thought I'd start one of these threads up. Predict how the previous poster would do in a run for said office, if he/she was the incumbent's only challenger. I guess I'll start this off.
US Senate (against Richard Blumenthal, D-CT). :) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: 😥 on June 08, 2019, 11:25:51 AM Lose 53-47 to Blumenthal
US Senate (against Roy Blunt, R-MO 2022) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on June 08, 2019, 11:33:24 AM Lose 49-48
Governor run against Phil Murphy (Biden midterm with Biden at 39-59 approval, following a major recession) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: 😥 on June 08, 2019, 11:40:39 AM Win 50-48
US Senate (against Rick Scott, R-FL, 2024, after 8 years of Trump, Trump at 41-53 approval) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on June 08, 2019, 12:57:59 PM Lose 49.99-49.97
Blame FL Democrats 2024 NJ Sen Against Bob Menendez (Menendez has a 39-54 approval) Joe Biden is the incumbent has an approval of 46-52 GCB is R+3 Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Xing on June 08, 2019, 03:38:50 PM Menendez wins 53-45.
WA-03 against Herrera-Beutler (2024 after eight years of Trump, Trump's approval is 39-56, Herrera Beutler's approval is 49-46) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Pericles on June 08, 2019, 03:48:24 PM Loses by 2%.
Senate against Pat Toomey, 2022, President Biden approval +4%. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on June 08, 2019, 03:57:06 PM 49-47 win for you
California Governor 2022, Trump is still President and has a 40/53 approval rating. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: RFayette on June 08, 2019, 04:29:49 PM 70-30 win.
CA governor, 2022 under President Biden, deep recession and 35-65 approval rating Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Fuzzy Bear on June 08, 2019, 04:37:59 PM Lose 47-53 (above-average showing)
Nominee of Republican, Conservative, and Independent parties for Governor of NY vs Andrew Cuomo in 2022 (Cuomo's 4th term). Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 08, 2019, 04:43:12 PM Lose 60-40 (horrible fit for NY)
Democratic nominee against Steve Daines for his Montana Senate seat. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 08, 2019, 04:48:54 PM TX 32nd CD (my home district) 2018 as dem nominee
Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on June 08, 2019, 04:51:37 PM Lose 60-40 (horrible fit for NY) Democratic nominee against Steve Daines for his Montana Senate seat. Loses 57-43, your pro-drug, left-wing views are a terrible fit for Montana TX 32nd CD (my home district) 2018 as dem nominee Win by about 12%, you are a Blue Dog and end up Blanching Sessions NJ-11 in 2022, following a reception, Biden is at 38-57 approval Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Politician on June 08, 2019, 06:17:46 PM You win 52-45
Run for MA-GOV 2022 against Baker Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Pericles on June 08, 2019, 06:27:59 PM Loses by a 12-point margin.
Run for Florida Senate seat against Rick Scott in 2024, President Warren with +2% approval rating, she is running for re-election. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: OSR stands with Israel on June 08, 2019, 06:33:36 PM Lose 51-48
Oregon Governor with an unpopular Democrat as President as well as Kate Brown approvals being under 40 percent Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Politician on June 08, 2019, 06:42:24 PM Win 49-47
Run for MA-GOV 2022 (Baker retires) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Pericles on June 08, 2019, 06:58:19 PM Wins by a 12-point margin.
Runs for NC-Sen in 2022, Trump is President with -9% net approval rating, open seat. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 08, 2019, 08:18:09 PM Win 49-48
TX Sen 2024 against Cruz, Trump won reelection, has negative 15 approval rating. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: HillGoose on June 08, 2019, 09:03:17 PM Win 52-46
2020 TN-04 Republican primary against Scott DesJarlais Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Gracile on June 08, 2019, 09:14:19 PM DesJarlais wins 57-43
IL-06 as a Democrat against a generic Republican in the 2022 midterm under second term Donald Trump (assume under the current IL-06 lines, not anything redistricted). Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: 😥 on June 09, 2019, 04:58:16 AM Win 52-47
US Senate (against Ron Johnson, R-WI, 2022, Biden at 50-45 approval, Johnson at 44-52 approval) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Pericles on June 09, 2019, 05:54:09 AM Wins by a 1-point margin.
Runs for Georgia Governor in 2022 against incumbent Kemp, President Biden with -3% approval. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Politician on June 09, 2019, 08:03:40 AM Lose 51-48 (no runoff)
Run for WV-SEN in 2024 (Manchin retires) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: 😥 on June 09, 2019, 12:23:29 PM Lose 60-40
US Senate in Montana 2020 against Steve Daines Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on June 09, 2019, 12:25:54 PM Lost 50-48
Blame polarization NJ SEN 2026, Dem President with a 38-51 approval, Booker retires, Norcoss runs as replacement Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 09, 2019, 12:48:07 PM Norcross wins 54-42
CO Sen Race 2020 Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on June 09, 2019, 03:15:30 PM 55-43
FL-26 Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on June 10, 2019, 01:30:53 PM Lose 53-47, Cubans hate actual Socialism
NJ-07 in 2022. Biden with a 39-58 approval, Malinowski won by 2 in 2020 Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Politician on June 10, 2019, 02:20:34 PM You lose 60-40 because of muh trends
MA-9 in 2020 (Keating retires, Trump loses district by 5) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on June 10, 2019, 05:17:19 PM Win 55-45
Mayor of Franklin, TN (2023, Mayor Ken Moore retires) *The city in Williamson County, not Franklin County. Franklin has voted about 65% Republican in recent elections. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Continential on June 10, 2019, 07:21:34 PM Win 64-36
AR-02, 2022 Trump 53-46 in Arkansas, Opponent in a scandal like Weiner or Foley. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: TDAS04 on June 10, 2019, 07:24:06 PM Lose 49-51.
Elliott County (KY) Clerk (2022) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on June 11, 2019, 06:28:28 AM Lose 63-37
Morris County Clerk (2022, Biden with 39-57 approval) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 16, 2019, 05:25:14 PM Win 57-43
Ohio 13th 2020, Tim Ryan vacates, running against DePizzo again in a rematch. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Politician on June 17, 2019, 10:17:33 AM Win 54-42, with a liberal third party taking 4%
Run for CT-2 (Courtney retires), Trump loses district by 3 Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Grassroots on June 19, 2019, 06:39:07 PM Lose 49-50
Illinois gubernatorial in 2022 against Pritzker. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Pericles on June 19, 2019, 09:39:16 PM Loses by a 15-point margin.
Run for Ohio Governor in 2022 against incumbent DeWine, Trump midterm with Trump at -12% net approval. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Politician on June 21, 2019, 05:15:25 PM Win 48-48
Run for PA gov 2022, Trump at -10 approval Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Dr. MB on June 23, 2019, 03:29:42 AM Win by 8 or something as long as you make it out of the primary
Governor of Idaho, 2042, against a 75 year old Raul Labrador Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on June 28, 2019, 10:32:16 PM Lose 63-37
NJ-05 in 2022 (Biden with 37-59 approval) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 29, 2019, 04:57:41 PM Lose 63-37 NJ-05 in 2022 (Biden with 37-59 approval) It is a strong fight, but Gottheimer is too strong for you to topple, he narrowly survives 49-48 In an open seat you win 52-45 CA 21 in 2020 against Valadao. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on June 29, 2019, 11:25:01 PM Bagel 57-43
US President in 2028 (following 4 years of Cotton, Cotton approval is 49-51) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on August 17, 2019, 01:24:33 AM Bump
Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Continential on August 22, 2019, 06:22:24 PM 49-46 SNJC
Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on August 22, 2019, 06:54:09 PM Aaaand since you did not give a race, I will do you vs Fitzpatrick,
I think you would win 51-49. Tx 23rd 2020 GE against Flores. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: James Monroe on August 22, 2019, 08:59:38 PM Bagel 53-48.
U.S Presidential election against Donald J. Trump Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on August 22, 2019, 11:57:57 PM Monroe 49-45
You win the EC with 2016 +PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ NJ-11 in 2022 (Biden with a national approval of 39-54), Sherrill is actively posturing for the Senate seat, and Malinowski got the incumbent protection seat, not Sherrill Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Politician on August 23, 2019, 06:19:37 AM You win 51-48
Run for MA-1 (Neal retired) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Pericles on August 23, 2019, 06:52:04 AM Let's presume this takes place in 2020 and is about the general election. In which case, Politician wins by around a 25-point margin.
House race for Nebraska 2nd district in 2020 against incumbent Bacon. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Politician on August 23, 2019, 05:30:10 PM You lose 50-50
Run for VT-GOV 2020 against Inc. Scott Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: President of the great nation of 🏳️⚧️ on August 23, 2019, 05:32:34 PM Loses by upper-single digits. Let's say 54-46 for simplicity.
2022 NC-SEN against Climbing Dan Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on August 24, 2019, 12:48:45 AM If Dem is President
Bishop 53-47 If Rep is President Peebs 52-48 NJ-02 in 2020 against JVD, Trump wins the district by 3 Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Pericles on August 24, 2019, 12:52:34 AM Close one but I think Van Drew pulls out a win.
Run for GA Senate seat in 2020 against Perdue. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on August 24, 2019, 02:21:11 AM Loses 51-47
Me vs Gardner 2020 Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: morgankingsley on August 24, 2019, 04:05:48 AM You probably win by 2 or 3 points
Oregon representative first congressional district Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on September 01, 2019, 03:05:46 PM Lose 58-42
Primary challenge to President Trump Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Joe Biden 2024 on September 05, 2019, 04:22:14 PM Loses. I'll ballpark it at 85-15 Trump.
Challenges Toomey in 2022. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸 on September 05, 2019, 11:06:12 PM Victory, 61-49.
Against Rod Blum as a D in 2018. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 06, 2019, 10:26:40 AM Loses 52-46, blame social conservatism.
AZ 1 against Carlyle Begay 2020 GE. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Andrew Yang 2024 on September 11, 2019, 09:04:41 PM Win 51-48
Senate run for Sherrod Brown's old seat, now VP under President O'Rourke 51-45 rating Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: John Dule on September 14, 2019, 04:20:30 AM Win with the narrowest of margins. O'Rourke would be an unpopular president and the backlash would begin soon after his inauguration. But having Sherrod Brown on your side would be a positive if he campaigned with you.
California's 2nd congressional district (challenging Jared Huffman). Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: West_Midlander on November 09, 2019, 03:10:56 PM 26% as a Libertarian in the runoff.
If I was the sole challenger in CA-12 Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Libertas Vel Mors on December 22, 2019, 11:59:29 PM 26% as a Libertarian in the runoff. If I was the sole challenger in CA-12 5%, you're too ideologically similar to Pelosi to gain significant ground in a primary challenge. 2020 NC Senate Run as Republican nominee against Cal Cunningham Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 23, 2019, 03:27:51 AM 49-48 you win.
TX 23rd 2020 GE vs Raul Reyes Jr Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: OSR stands with Israel on December 23, 2019, 03:41:35 AM You win by around 5-6 points
CA-25th vs Cenk Uygur Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: 😥 on December 23, 2019, 08:37:04 AM 53.5-46.5 win
Minnesota Senator 2020 (Tina Smith retires) vs Generic R Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: 538Electoral on December 23, 2019, 11:44:45 PM 5-6% win.
Ohio's 5th district against Generic D. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: OBD on December 28, 2019, 12:46:48 AM Win with over 60%. I could see a 61-39 victory occuring.
Oregon's 5th District against a competent Republican candidate (i.e. a Knute Buehler or Greg Walden type). Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Dr. MB on December 28, 2019, 12:53:57 AM Win with over 60%. I could see a 61-39 victory occuring. Oregon's 5th District against a competent Republican candidate (i.e. a Knute Buehler or Greg Walden type). oh sh!t wrong thread Wins like 50-45 anyway Oregon Senate vs. Kurt Schrader in a D primary Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: We Live in Black and White on December 28, 2019, 02:52:10 AM Honestly, I feel like you'd squeeze out a narrow victory somewhere close to the tune of 52-48. Oregon isn't really a moderate place on the statewide level, and your brand of politics would be better-tuned for it than Schrader's.
Governor of Montana vs. Greg Gianforte. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Libertas Vel Mors on December 29, 2019, 11:35:48 PM Honestly, I feel like you'd squeeze out a narrow victory somewhere close to the tune of 52-48. Oregon isn't really a moderate place on the statewide level, and your brand of politics would be better-tuned for it than Schrader's. Governor of Montana vs. Greg Gianforte. Loses, 42-53 (Sorry, neither of you is a good candidate for MT) Texas Senate 2020 Run against MJ Hegar Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: West_Midlander on December 30, 2019, 05:24:40 AM Wins 52-45
1v1 Dem Primary against Hagar for US Senate, TX 2020 Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on December 31, 2019, 01:11:46 AM Hegar 62-38
2020 Senate v Kim Guadagno (Booker retires, because he remains relevant in the WH race and Gottheimer and Sherrill don't run because the DCCC wants them to hold onto their house seats) Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: We Live in Black and White on December 31, 2019, 02:44:54 PM S019 60-37. The GOP ship is sunk in New Jersey, especially for anyone attached to Christie's legacy.
AZ-SEN 2020 vs. Martha McSally (Kelly resolves to remain in retirement with his wife). Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Libertas Vel Mors on December 31, 2019, 03:06:05 PM S019 60-37. The GOP ship is sunk in New Jersey, especially for anyone attached to Christie's legacy. AZ-SEN 2020 vs. Martha McSally (Kelly resolves to remain in retirement with his wife). Loses 46-49 2020 NJ-07 run against Tom Malinowski Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: S019 on December 31, 2019, 06:04:28 PM Malinowski 52-47
TX-SEN in 2024 against Cruz Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 01, 2020, 07:10:24 PM Narrowly wins 49-48 in a Trump white house, loses 51-46 in a dem white house.
Somehow gets the nomination for tx 24, 2020 GE against Beth Van Duyne. Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For.... Post by: Esteemed Jimmy on January 01, 2020, 09:37:38 PM Wins 48-47
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