Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Thunder98 on May 12, 2019, 08:13:19 pm



Title: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Thunder98 on May 12, 2019, 08:13:19 pm
Added poll

Not sure if there is already a thread about KY's gov race, but couldnít  find any in the search results, so I created this one for the sakes of it.

The KY Primaries are approaching for the GOV race and other statewide offices on May 21st.

https://wfpl.org/kentucky-primary-2019-matt-bevin-touts-record-despite-unpopularity/



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 13, 2019, 02:06:59 pm
No, Safe R.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 13, 2019, 02:26:58 pm

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 13, 2019, 02:45:36 pm

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on May 13, 2019, 02:53:23 pm
As soon as the atlas put up the 2019 governor predictions, we can predict for ourselves who will win, we see the same arguement over and over again, LA is safe D, eventhough, JBE is below 50% and its a run-off state and KY and MS are safe R.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Alben Barkley on May 13, 2019, 03:58:48 pm
Short answer: Yes, and he will.

Long answer: Quoting my own response from another thread...

Quote
Some of these posts are so bad I ó a lurker ó literally felt compelled to sign up just to rebut them.

Clearly many of you understand little about Kentucky politics, but know just enough to be dangerous. As someone born and raised in the state, and who is very in-tune with its current political climate, allow me to explain a few things:

Yes, Kentucky has become far more inflexibly Republican over the past couple decades, and yes, this trend has been seen to some extent even in state level races. BUT that does not mean it is lost to Democrats forever in any race for any office against any candidate.

Jack Conway was a rather disliked figure in the state, or at least not particularly liked. There was little-to-no enthusiasm among just about anyone in the state to vote for Conway, not even among those who would have voted for him if forced to choose, which was why turnout was abysmal that year and why he lost decisively even though he led in the polls. It said nothing about Matt Bevinís popularity in particular or a total reversal of Kentuckyís tendency to favor Democratic governors in spite of its heavy lean towards Republicans on the presidential/senatorial level. It just said everything about poorly motivated Democratic voters and strongly motivated Republican voters in 2015.

Now, however, Matt Bevin is an exceedingly unpopular known quantity who will most likely run against the son of a very popular governor ó who won two statewide landslides within the last 15 years, long after the state went deep red ó who himself managed to win statewide office the same year Bevin did, with far more voter enthusiasm in the Democratsí favor this year than in 2015. Heís toast.

And I say this not just based on wishful thinking or some Louisville or Lexington bubble; my staunchly GOP, Trump voting relatives in south central and eastern Kentucky called Bevin, and I quote, ďa fóing idiotĒ last time I talked to them. He is literally the least popular governor in the country. His tenure has been plagued by extremely unpopular decisions and mutiny from his own party, which he has no firm grasp on or strong support from whatsoever. He has been booed heavily during speeches in eastern Kentucky and even at the Kentucky Derby. Heís about as popular as Roger Goodell now. Beshear will wipe the floor with him.

And no, a Trump endorsement will not save him any more than it saved Roy Moore, Patrick Morrissey, etc. Kentucky might be inelastic at the national level, and its recent polling history might be dubious, but I am still confident the state is capable for voting Democrat for governor against an incumbent as ridiculously bad as Matt Bevin, who is less popular than Ernie Fletcher ever was.

Yes, I base much of this on anecdotal experience, personal conversation, and gut instinct ó but that proved more reliable than polls in 2016, when I became convinced Trump would win after driving through Ohio and Michigan and seeing Trump signs everywhere but no Hillary signs. Now I get the opposite feeling in this race; the support for Bevin is just not there. Everyone I know from all over the state and the political spectrum either openly hates him or is lukewarm about him at best. Beshear will win comfortably, improving on his own 2015 AG map. Mark my words.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Alben Barkley on May 13, 2019, 03:59:45 pm

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Senators Moore and Morrissey can attest to the accuracy of relying solely on a stateís partisan lean and Trump approval for every race.

Neither of those are remotely good comparisons, by the way. Neither Bredesen or Laxalt were going up against an incumbent as absurdly unpopular as Bevin, and neither were in a state with a strong history of voting Democrat for governor/statewide office that has mostly defied its overall strong R trend like Kentucky has. They also were not off-year elections, where whichever party is more motivated to turn out has the advantage, because there is no downballot effect among people turning out primarily for other races.

Moore and Morrissey are actually more appropriate comprisons, because Bevin is unironically about as toxic as Moore in Kentucky and both 2017 and 2019 are off-years, and Beshear is comparable to Manchin in his popularity among ancestral Appalachian Democrats in defiance of the stateís love for Trump and strong GOP trend.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on May 13, 2019, 04:10:11 pm
No race with an incumbent with approval ratings this poor is Safe for that incumbent, but Kentucky's partisan lean will be hard for the Democratic candidate to overcome. Lean/Likely R, Bevin probably wins by 5-8 points.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: IceSpear on May 13, 2019, 04:17:06 pm

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. :)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Alben Barkley on May 13, 2019, 04:20:49 pm

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. :)

Again, I do not think you understand just HOW unpopular Bevin is, even in deep red Trump country. No one outside Kentucky could. It is not comparable to ANY of these other races people bring up. At all. The other states themselves are not quite comparable to Kentucky either in terms of their state party dynamics and history, and the candidates running against these Republicans were not comparable to Beshear either. Manchin is probably the closest analogy applicable here.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Weatherboy on May 13, 2019, 04:23:48 pm

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. :)

If he was up against Fallin he probably would have won. Luckily for Republicans, that wasnít the case


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: IceSpear on May 13, 2019, 04:27:42 pm

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. :)

Again, I do not think you understand just HOW unpopular Bevin is, even in deep red Trump country. No one outside Kentucky could. It is not comparable to ANY of these other races people bring up. At all. The other states themselves are not quite comparable to Kentucky either in terms of their state party dynamics and history, and the candidates running against these Republicans were not comparable to Beshear either. Manchin is probably the closest analogy applicable here.

Quote
An October 2018 poll by Morning Consult found Fallin with a 17% approval and 75% disapproval rating, making her the most unpopular governor in the country.

Bevin is a super popular rockstar compared to Muhry Fallin, lol.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: DaWN on May 13, 2019, 04:30:39 pm
No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Roll Roons on May 13, 2019, 04:39:20 pm
No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.

This is also the same governor who was loudly booed when he came on stage at his state's signature event. Could you ever imagine such a thing happening to Steve Beshear or Happy Chandler? Bevin is Rauner/Christie/Malloy level unpopular, and from the looks of it, he won't change that just by clinging closer to Trump.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 13, 2019, 04:52:49 pm

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Senators Moore and Morrissey can attest to the accuracy of relying solely on a stateís partisan lean and Trump approval for every race.

Neither of those are remotely good comparisons, by the way. Neither Bredesen or Laxalt were going up against an incumbent as absurdly unpopular as Bevin, and neither were in a state with a strong history of voting Democrat for governor/statewide office that has mostly defied its overall strong R trend like Kentucky has. They also were not off-year elections, where whichever party is more motivated to turn out has the advantage, because there is no downballot effect among people turning out primarily for other races.

Moore and Morrissey are actually more appropriate comprisons, because Bevin is unironically about as toxic as Moore in Kentucky and both 2017 and 2019 are off-years, and Beshear is comparable to Manchin in his popularity among ancestral Appalachian Democrats in defiance of the stateís love for Trump and strong GOP trend.

Neither of those are good comparisons, since Bevin hasn't touched underage girls, nor is he running against an incumbent who's extremely popular and had very strong ties to the state for decades. And even so, Jones and Manchin just barely won, even with everything going their way. Unpopular governors have won reelection in states less favorable to their party, so I see no reason to believe Bevin is headed for defeat.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: IceSpear on May 13, 2019, 04:54:01 pm
No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.

This is also the same governor who was loudly booed when he came on stage at his state's signature event. Could you ever imagine such a thing happening to Steve Beshear or Happy Chandler? Bevin is Rauner/Christie/Malloy level unpopular, and from the looks of it, he won't change that just by clinging closer to Trump.

Both Malloy and Brownback, despite being more unpopular than Bevin and in less partisan states than Kentucky, won re-election.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: IceSpear on May 13, 2019, 04:59:09 pm

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. :)

If he was up against Fallin he probably would have won. Luckily for Republicans, that wasnít the case

I highly doubt it. Regardless, all throughout 2018 I was told by multiple posters that her unpopularity would make it a toss up race even though she wasn't running, lol. Hopefully once Bevin wins the amended talking point of "ok, unpopularity will lead to a toss up race in a crimson red state but ONLY if they're actually running again!" can bite the dust as well.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Comrade Funk on May 13, 2019, 05:17:07 pm
I've said this elsewhere, but I think Rocky Adkins is gonna surprise and win the primary. He's the only Democrat people seem actually excited to vote for.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: henster on May 13, 2019, 08:59:56 pm
FWIW Google Trends shows a pretty tight  race with Edelen slightly ahead with Beshear in 3rd. Falls closely in line with $$$ #'s we've seen, Edelen has been spending the most by far out of the field with Adkins surprisingly out raising Beshear.

()


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US-KY&q=%2Fm%2F0crjhhc,%2Fm%2F043mqlf,%2Fm%2F010f0kx_


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Skye on May 14, 2019, 09:50:03 am
I suppose Bevin could conceivably lose. I'd rate it as Likely R just to be cautious. But this is KY, so we know how that goes.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 14, 2019, 12:12:33 pm
Not enough people are discussing Adkins


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Priest of Moloch on May 14, 2019, 12:26:14 pm
FWIW Google Trends shows a pretty tight  race with Edelen slightly ahead with Beshear in 3rd. Falls closely in line with $$$ #'s we've seen, Edelen has been spending the most by far out of the field with Adkins surprisingly out raising Beshear.

You don't need to google Beshear's kid to know who he is. You probably need to google the state rep from Sandy Hook. Don't think we should use this as a substitute for polling here.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ilhan Apologist on May 14, 2019, 06:50:27 pm
No race with an incumbent with approval ratings this poor is Safe for that incumbent, but Kentucky's partisan lean will be hard for the Democratic candidate to overcome. Lean/Likely R, Bevin probably wins by 5-8 points.
THANK you. Bevin is heavily favored, but it's way too soon to call the race for him.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Gass3268 on May 17, 2019, 12:04:41 pm
Looking forward to seeing the results come in next week. I have no horse in this race and it looks like it's gonna be close.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ishan on May 17, 2019, 02:03:55 pm
Edelen is the Kentucky Left Candidate, Beashar and Adkins are Centrist.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on May 18, 2019, 02:55:09 pm
No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.

This is also the same governor who was loudly booed when he came on stage at his state's signature event. Could you ever imagine such a thing happening to Steve Beshear or Happy Chandler? Bevin is Rauner/Christie/Malloy level unpopular, and from the looks of it, he won't change that just by clinging closer to Trump.

Both Malloy and Brownback, despite being more unpopular than Bevin and in less partisan states than Kentucky, won re-election.

In 2014 too. As much as partisanship/polarization is an overused meme of sorts on here, it still continues to have an increasing value even on state-level politics.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 18, 2019, 06:09:10 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 03:53:16 pm
Results Page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/21/us/elections/results-kentucky-primary-elections.html

first polls close at 6 ET.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 03:54:11 pm
Let's go Rocky!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 21, 2019, 04:34:30 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on May 21, 2019, 04:38:23 pm


Rain in Northern Kentucky


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on May 21, 2019, 04:41:52 pm
Umm honestly I think this thing is overhyped, I think Adkins and Edelenís chances in the primary are overstated, especially Adkins, and Beshear will win fairly comfortably, this is a total guess but I am going to guess that Beshear is somewhere near half of the vote, Adkins clocking in around 25 and Edelen maybe at like 20 and others at 5

And whoever wins the primary will lose substantially to Matt Bevin, so it is all in vain anyways.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 04:55:55 pm
Turnout is good for anyone but Beshear with those estimates. Eastern Kentucky is definitely Adkins Country, and the cities are good ground for Edelen.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on May 21, 2019, 04:58:06 pm
Edelen is overhyped, I doubt he absolutely dominates in Jeffco or Fayetteco


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 05:04:14 pm
Edelen is overhyped, I doubt he absolutely dominates in Jeffco or Fayetteco

Yeah, but he'll probably win them.
But I could see Andy winning easily. We'll see.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 21, 2019, 05:08:55 pm
Adkins leads by 5 votes so far, lol.

Edit: Now 68. Still almost nothing in.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 05:09:18 pm
Rocky is dominating in early returns from eastern Kentucky.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 05:12:35 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
117   59.4%
Andy Beshear
49   24.9
Adam Edelen
28   14.2
Geoffrey Young
3   1.5
197 votes, <1% reporting (1 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Robert Goforth
303   50.0%
Matt Bevin*
276   45.5
William Woods
17   2.8
Ike Lawrence
10   1.7
606 votes, <1% reporting (1 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 05:13:32 pm
This is absurdly early. But it's so far good for Adkins.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 05:18:55 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
489   58.4%
Andy Beshear
201   24.0
Adam Edelen
130   15.5
Geoffrey Young
18   2.1
838 votes, <1% reporting (3 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
445   52.1%
Robert Goforth
362   42.4
William Woods
28   3.3
Ike Lawrence
19   2.2
854 votes, <1% reporting (3 of 3,686 precincts)



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 05:24:35 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
603   48.9%
Andy Beshear
334   27.1
Adam Edelen
273   22.2
Geoffrey Young
22   1.8
1,232 votes, <1% reporting (5 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
672   53.4%
Robert Goforth
497   39.5
William Woods
59   4.7
Ike Lawrence
30   2.4
1,258 votes, <1% reporting (5 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 05:30:25 pm
Did this Goforth guy actual run a reasonable-scope campaign?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Greene on May 21, 2019, 05:31:32 pm
Big dump came in. Beshear is catching up fast. He will probably overtake Adkins shortly. Looking to be how we all figured - Bevin vs Beshear.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 21, 2019, 05:32:11 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 05:32:14 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
1,180   36.8%
Andy Beshear
1,095   34.1
Adam Edelen
884   27.6
Geoffrey Young
48   1.5
3,207 votes, <1% reporting (7 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
1,246   57.1%
Robert Goforth
781   35.8
William Woods
91   4.2
Ike Lawrence
65   3.0
2,183 votes, <1% reporting (7 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 05:33:00 pm
Big dump came in. Beshear is catching up fast. He will probably overtake Adkins shortly. Looking to be how we all figured - Bevin vs Beshear.

Yes, but margins here should be relatively interesting. Especially on the R side.

(and welcome to Atlas!)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 05:35:42 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
1,712   39.8%
Andy Beshear
1,370   31.8
Adam Edelen
1,152   26.8
Geoffrey Young
70   1.6
4,304 votes, <1% reporting (13 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
1,512   58.3%
Robert Goforth
875   33.7
William Woods
130   5.0
Ike Lawrence
78   3.0
2,595 votes, <1% reporting (13 of 3,686 precincts)



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Gass3268 on May 21, 2019, 05:37:46 pm
Hasn't posted to the NYT yet, but:



Also Beshear is doing pretty well up in the Cincinnati metro.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on May 21, 2019, 05:39:07 pm
Expecting a big Baby Beshear win in Louisville


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 05:39:42 pm
I wouldn't count Rocky out with less then 1% reporting.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Gass3268 on May 21, 2019, 05:41:37 pm
Expecting a big Baby Beshear win in Louisville

Edelen has most of the institutional support in Louisville.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 05:42:20 pm
I wouldn't count Rocky out with less then 1% reporting.

He's not getting the numbers he needs in non-Appalachia

We'll, Western Kentucky should be a curveball.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 05:42:50 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
2,836   42.3%
Andy Beshear
2,049   30.6
Adam Edelen
1,701   25.4
Geoffrey Young
118   1.8
6,704 votes, 1% reporting (40 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
2,154   56.6%
Robert Goforth
1,377   36.2
William Woods
181   4.8
Ike Lawrence
97   2.5
3,809 votes, 1% reporting (29 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 21, 2019, 05:44:35 pm
Beshear will probably pull ahead once we get Louisville and more of Lexington. It could be close, though.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Gass3268 on May 21, 2019, 05:46:01 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 05:47:52 pm
Clown?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on May 21, 2019, 05:54:09 pm
Nothing overly surprising here


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 05:56:21 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
5,089   37.0%
Andy Beshear
4,899   35.6
Adam Edelen
3,388   24.6
Geoffrey Young
393   2.9
13,769 votes, 4% reporting (139 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
7,092   51.7%
Robert Goforth
5,367   39.2
William Woods
920   6.7
Ike Lawrence
327   2.4
13,706 votes, 4% reporting (133 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 05:57:54 pm
Seriously, when did I miss Bevin getting a serious primary challenger?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 05:59:45 pm
Seriously, when did I miss Bevin getting a serious primary challenger?

Goforth wasn't that serious, that's the thing. He ran one badly disjointed ad the whole primary

If that's true then this is incredibly embarrassing for Bevin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Pollster on May 21, 2019, 06:00:11 pm
Edelen looks poised to lose with a respectable showing. He could very well pivot to a challenge to McConnell from this.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 06:01:26 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
9,723   41.6%
Andy Beshear
7,458   31.9
Adam Edelen
5,636   24.1
Geoffrey Young
576   2.5
23,393 votes, 5% reporting (195 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
9,097   52.8%
Robert Goforth
6,602   38.3
William Woods
1,078   6.3
Ike Lawrence
452   2.6
17,229 votes, 5% reporting (182 of 3,686 precincts)



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 06:03:13 pm
WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Heather French Henry
9,546   72.2%

Jason Belcher
1,618   12.2
Jason Griffith
1,614   12.2
Geoff Sebesta
439   3.3
13,217 votes, 4% reporting (144 of 3,686 precincts)

Agriculture Commissioner
Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Ryan Quarles*
6,069   81.8%

Bill Polyniak
1,351   18.2
7,420 votes, 2% reporting (82 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 21, 2019, 06:04:19 pm
Seriously, when did I miss Bevin getting a serious primary challenger?

Goforth wasn't that serious, that's the thing. He ran one badly disjointed ad the whole primary

If that's true then this is incredibly embarrassing for Bevin.

Itís a landslide compared with Bevinís last primary victory, which I remember only too well. :P


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:04:39 pm
Something (I think Floyd) just dropped to put adkins just under 50% overall. 20 points ahead of Beshear with 9% in.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 06:05:53 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
16,526   46.9%
Andy Beshear
10,543   29.9
Adam Edelen
7,316   20.7
Geoffrey Young
885   2.5
35,270 votes, 9% reporting (327 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
10,533   51.5%
Robert Goforth
8,062   39.5
William Woods
1,269   6.2
Ike Lawrence
571   2.8
20,435 votes, 7% reporting (264 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: President Biden on May 21, 2019, 06:07:11 pm
Seriously, when did I miss Bevin getting a serious primary challenger?

Goforth wasn't that serious, that's the thing. He ran one badly disjointed ad the whole primary

If that's true then this is incredibly embarrassing for Bevin.

Itís a landslide compared with Bevinís last primary victory, which I remember only too well. :P
Bevin won the primary by 83 votes over James Comer.

Had Comer won the primary, he would have been on course to win re-election easily.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:07:34 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:09:20 pm
Cincy metro seems to be what's keeping Beshear close right now. We'll have to see how  Jefferson shakes out.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Rep. Gracile on May 21, 2019, 06:11:56 pm
The Republican Attorney General primary is super close -

Wil Schroder
14,396   50.1%
Daniel Cameron
14,337   49.9


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Rep. Gracile on May 21, 2019, 06:13:46 pm
Jefferson County just dumped and it gave Beshear a boost.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ishan on May 21, 2019, 06:13:47 pm
Beashar is leading Louisville with Edelen in second.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:13:56 pm
Jefferson drops its first 25 precincts. Adkins is getting curbstomped, only 11%.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 06:14:20 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
23,991   43.7%
Andy Beshear
17,181   31.3
Adam Edelen
12,407   22.6
Geoffrey Young
1,269   2.3
54,848 votes, 14% reporting (508 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
20,952   51.3%
Robert Goforth
16,315   39.9
William Woods
2,503   6.1
Ike Lawrence
1,093   2.7
40,863 votes, 14% reporting (498 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:15:07 pm
Jefferson drops its first 25 precincts. Adkins is getting curbstomped, only 11%.

Unless something changes dramatically here, Beshear should have this in the bag.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Senator YE on May 21, 2019, 06:15:14 pm
Jefferson drops its first 25 precincts. Adkins is getting curbstomped, only 11%.

RIP Adkins.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: ON Progressive on May 21, 2019, 06:15:24 pm
So far it looks like a Beshear/Adkins race.

Beshear seems to be the favourite (NYT is missing a lot of Lexington, where Beshear is up 42-36 on Edelen and Adkins is at 21%), but that can change with Western Kentucky.

Edelen is likely done since his path required doing a lot better in urban areas than he actually is.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on May 21, 2019, 06:16:01 pm
Adkins is probably getting demolished among blacks in jeffco and fayette co which helps beshear big league


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on May 21, 2019, 06:16:07 pm
Expecting a big Baby Beshear win in Louisville

Edelen has most of the institutional support in Louisville.

Heís a damn spoiler thatís what he is


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: President Biden on May 21, 2019, 06:20:30 pm
What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019 on May 21, 2019, 06:22:11 pm
What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on May 21, 2019, 06:22:22 pm
What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.

Iím not sure but itís definitely possible. Perhaps gigantic margins out of Louisville and Lexington and keeping rural losses at a minimum?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Rep. Gracile on May 21, 2019, 06:24:04 pm
What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.

Iím not sure but itís definitely possible. Perhaps gigantic margins out of Louisville and Lexington and keeping rural losses at a minimum?

Louisville and Lexington alone will not overcome Republican strength in the more rural counties.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 21, 2019, 06:24:06 pm
What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

Elliott County literally supported a Democrat in a federal race in 2016 of all years.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on May 21, 2019, 06:24:32 pm
What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

In a presidential election, yes. but it can still go Democratic in a localized election since it takes longer for trends at the top of the ticket to completely trickle down to the local level. any conceivable statewide D win in Kentucky probably involves the Democrat winning Elliot, although not by a huge margin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on May 21, 2019, 06:24:37 pm
What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

Elliott County will continue vote Democratic on the local level. Not that it matters much anywhere near as much as huge Loudoun County lol


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Senator YE on May 21, 2019, 06:25:24 pm
What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.

Uniform swing from 2016 presidential map?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: President Biden on May 21, 2019, 06:26:34 pm
What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

Elliott County literally supported a Democrat in a federal race in 2016 of all years.

So did Loudoun County...
Really? Even Comstock lost it.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 21, 2019, 06:28:58 pm
Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R. Anyway, Beshear will probably have this once Jefferson comes in. There just isn't enough left in Eastern Kentucky for Adkins to hold his lead.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 06:30:24 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
40,566   43.6%
Andy Beshear
28,889   31.1
Adam Edelen
21,445   23.1
Geoffrey Young
2,105   2.3
93,005 votes, 22% reporting (799 of 3,686 precincts)

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
34,449   51.5%

Robert Goforth
26,911   40.3
William Woods
3,683   5.5
Ike Lawrence
1,802   2.7
66,845 votes, 21% reporting (790 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:31:15 pm
At this point the Dem side is just waiting for Jefferson and Fayette to drop and nail it in for Beshear.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 06:32:42 pm
WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Michael Bowman
51,708   64.0%

Josh Mers
29,113   36.0
80,821 votes, 24% reporting (878 of 3,686 precincts)

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Robert Haley Conway
46,852   59.7%

Joe Trigg
31,686   40.3
78,538 votes, 23% reporting (856 of 3,686 precincts)



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 06:33:49 pm
Adkins might take it.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ishan on May 21, 2019, 06:34:52 pm
That may show how #KentuckyHicks still are Democrats.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:34:52 pm
I'm not so sure of Beshear winning anymore. 12,000+ is still pretty sizable for Louisville and Lexington to erase, and Adkins still has some coal counties out where he should net a few thousand more.

Eh he's netted 500 in Louisville with just 4% in there. If he holds that it'll erase 12K without Lexington. Add in the west (where Adkins seems to also be in third as often as he's in first) and it should seal it for Beshear.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 06:37:54 pm
Rocky's still ahead. Lead just grew.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 06:38:26 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
48,530   44.3%
Andy Beshear
33,840   30.9
Adam Edelen
24,731   22.6
Geoffrey Young
2,477   2.3
109,578 votes, 28% reporting (1,017 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:39:54 pm
Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. Itís going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as ďevidenceĒ that Bevin is super vulnerable.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: ON Progressive on May 21, 2019, 06:41:00 pm
Lexington is actually 97% in. I have no idea why it's only at 1% on the NYT page.

Andy Beshear   15,455   42%
Adam Edelen   12,918   35%
Rocky Adkins   7,803   21%

So Beshear netted 7652 votes out of Lexington so far, with a little more to go.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: President Biden on May 21, 2019, 06:41:29 pm
If Matt Bevin is re-elected, how insufferable will IceSpear be after election day?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:42:09 pm
Lexington is actually 97% in. I have no idea why it's only at 1% on the NYT page.

Andy Beshear   15,455   42%
Adam Edelen   12,918   35%
Rocky Adkins   7,803   21%

So Beshear netted 7652 votes out of Lexington so far, with a little more to go.

Right, forgot about Lexington delay.

Since that isn't on NYT map, lead is only down to 8,000 with 96% of Jefferson to go. Will be interesting.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: ON Progressive on May 21, 2019, 06:43:08 pm
Lexington is actually 97% in. I have no idea why it's only at 1% on the NYT page.

Andy Beshear   15,455   42%
Adam Edelen   12,918   35%
Rocky Adkins   7,803   21%

So Beshear netted 7652 votes out of Lexington so far, with a little more to go.

Right, forgot about Lexington delay.

Since that isn't on NYT map, lead is only down to 8,000 with 96% of Jefferson to go. Will be interesting.

Western Kentucky is also having Beshear leading so far, which puts some less pressure on Jefferson pulling through for him.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:43:25 pm
If Matt Bevin is re-elected, how insufferable will IceSpear be after election day?

The last time IceSpear was dead wrong (Alabama) he apologized for it and updated his later predictions (such as WV-Sen) with regards to that result. Unlike you, who have doubled down on all your incorrect takes without ever admitting you were wrong about almost everything in 2018.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Canis on May 21, 2019, 06:43:39 pm
This is gonna be a close one calling it now


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 21, 2019, 06:44:13 pm
Is Rocky ahead with all of Lex in?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: President Biden on May 21, 2019, 06:44:38 pm
Is Rocky ahead with all of Lex in?
Yes


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 21, 2019, 06:44:42 pm
Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. Itís going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as ďevidenceĒ that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:46:38 pm
Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. Itís going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as ďevidenceĒ that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."

Oh that's what you meant by D/R primary results. That makes more sense.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: ON Progressive on May 21, 2019, 06:49:45 pm
A dump from Louisville

       Adam H. EDELEN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    10,179   44.96
           Geoffrey M. "Geoff" YOUNG .  .  .  .  .       453    2.00
           Rocky ADKINS  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,398   10.59
           Andy BESHEAR  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,611   42.45

Yeah, this is looking like it just might be Adkins' night.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 21, 2019, 06:50:33 pm
Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Yeah, I guess I could've been more clear about that.

Anyway, if we factor in the Fayette numbers, Adkins is actually up by about 9K by now, right? This could actually be very close. It'll depend on whether the remaining Jefferson numbers are as favorable for Beshear as the initial results.
Safe Bevin. Itís going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as ďevidenceĒ that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."

Oh that's what you meant by D/R primary results. That makes more sense.

Yeah, I should've been more clear about that.

Anyway, it's much closer now that we have Fayette and some of Jefferson. If the current Jefferson numbers are representative, Beshear probably pulls it out, but if Adkins does better in the remaining precincts, he might actually pull this off.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:51:13 pm
A dump from Louisville

       Adam H. EDELEN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    10,179   44.96
           Geoffrey M. "Geoff" YOUNG .  .  .  .  .       453    2.00
           Rocky ADKINS  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,398   10.59
           Andy BESHEAR  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,611   42.45

Yeah, this is looking like it just might be Adkins' night.

Yeah, I don't think so. With Fayette numbers, Beshear is down around 5K statewide and already has 7K over Adkins from a quarter of Jefferson.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Canis on May 21, 2019, 06:51:23 pm
all of fayettvile just dropped on nyt as I predicted its close


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:52:29 pm
A dump from Louisville

       Adam H. EDELEN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    10,179   44.96
           Geoffrey M. "Geoff" YOUNG .  .  .  .  .       453    2.00
           Rocky ADKINS  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,398   10.59
           Andy BESHEAR  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,611   42.45

Yeah, this is looking like it just might be Adkins' night.

Yeah, I don't think so. With Fayette numbers, Beshear is down around 5K statewide and already has 7K over Adkins from a quarter of Jefferson.

Er, Beshear down 8K, but point stands. A lot of Jefferson is still out and he's still up big over Adkins.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: President Biden on May 21, 2019, 06:52:39 pm
Adkins got 97% of the vote in Elliott County


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Senator YE on May 21, 2019, 06:56:22 pm
I'm tempted to make a "Describe an Andy Beshear and Adam Edelen voter in Elliot County" thread.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:56:51 pm
The AP calls it for Bevin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 06:57:21 pm
Currently up 51.2-40.2.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 21, 2019, 06:57:46 pm
Looks like Beshear has this.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 21, 2019, 06:58:33 pm
Adkins is down to a 1.7% lead, with about a third of Jefferson in. Unless he can do better in the remaining precincts there, this is probably over.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: lfromnj on May 21, 2019, 06:59:01 pm
I'm tempted to make a "Describe an Andy Beshear and Adam Edelen voter in Elliot County" thread.

I mean a Beshear could be someone who really liked Steve Beshear and those Edelen voters are some of those shrill retrained traitor solar workers?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 06:59:19 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
82,501   36.4%
Andy Beshear
78,746   34.7
Adam Edelen
60,811   26.8
Geoffrey Young
4,874   2.1
226,932 votes, 57% reporting (2,100 of 3,686 precincts)



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Thunder98 on May 21, 2019, 06:59:57 pm
Adkins received 96.9% of the vote in his home county of Elliot. lol

()


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: ON Progressive on May 21, 2019, 07:00:15 pm
Ok, now Beshear has this.

There's a ton of JeffCo still out, and most of Western Kentucky is out. There's still a couple dozen precincts in the Cincy burbs (where Beshear has been romping all night) too.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 07:00:44 pm
WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Sheri Donahue
74,318   45.7%

Kelsey Hayes Coots
54,772   33.7
Chris Tobe
33,556   20.6
162,646 votes, 56% reporting (2,081 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Michael Adams
55,890   40.7%

Andrew English
37,777   27.5
Stephen Knipper
25,885   18.8
Carl Nett
17,841   13.0
137,393 votes, 57% reporting (2,088 of 3,686 precincts)



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 07:04:14 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
88,871   37.1%
Andy Beshear
82,572   34.4
Adam Edelen
63,193   26.4
Geoffrey Young
5,153   2.1
239,789 votes, 61% reporting (2,233 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Senator YE on May 21, 2019, 07:05:03 pm
Ugh RIP Adkins.

Dem primaries sometimes make me for a split second wish urban cores never existed. GE's do the opposite.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 07:08:07 pm

Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
93,821   35.5%
Andy Beshear
92,666   35.1
Adam Edelen
72,084   27.3
Geoffrey Young
5,652   2.1
264,223 votes, 67% reporting (2,452 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ishan on May 21, 2019, 07:08:29 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 07:09:49 pm
Beshear just about to pass.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ishan on May 21, 2019, 07:10:49 pm
Great News! Shame that Bevin won.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 21, 2019, 07:11:15 pm
Yeah, time for a Wulfric projection. Just about all of Eastern Kentucky is in, and there's more than half of Jefferson left.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 07:11:26 pm
Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
97,462   35.7%
Andy Beshear
95,553   35.0
Adam Edelen
73,984   27.1
Geoffrey Young
5,880   2.2
272,879 votes, 69% reporting (2,561 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: ON Progressive on May 21, 2019, 07:14:04 pm
Jefferson at 64% of precincts reporting:
Adam H. EDELEN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    24,142   39.51
Geoffrey M. "Geoff" YOUNG .  .  .  .  .     1,274    2.09
Rocky ADKINS  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     6,472   10.59
Andy BESHEAR  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    29,212   47.81

It's over.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: lfromnj on May 21, 2019, 07:14:39 pm
More embarssing for Bevin than losing those hick counties that are almost all gonna vote for him besides maybe something like Elliot(I don't think its completely gone locally if the 2018 house result was +12 and its clearly like Safe D if Adkins is the nominee) is the fact he doesn't even have a majority in campbell county.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 21, 2019, 07:15:16 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 07:15:48 pm
WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Andy Beshear
108,215   36.4%

Rocky Adkins
101,496   34.1
Adam Edelen
81,083   27.3
Geoffrey Young
6,495   2.2
297,289 votes, 76% reporting (2,806 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 07:15:51 pm
And Beshear takes the lead.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Xing on May 21, 2019, 07:16:28 pm
Beshear probably wins by about 6% when all is said and done.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Senator LouisvilleThunder on May 21, 2019, 07:17:47 pm
This was pretty expected.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 07:17:58 pm
WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Daniel Cameron
103,754   55.1%

Wil Schroder
84,552   44.9
188,306 votes, 76% reporting (2,811 of 3,686 precincts)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: President Pericles on May 21, 2019, 07:18:00 pm
Surprised how close both parties primaries are.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 07:18:17 pm

What, Bevin being at just 50% against a no-namer?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Ishan on May 21, 2019, 07:18:33 pm
The Dawn has fell for the old
As Beashar has won
Thought to be split
By the Progressive Edelen
Liberalism has won
As Adkins has fallen
On the way to the generals
Beashar against a split Bevin
Fought a battle against Goforth
On the Generals go!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Senator LouisvilleThunder on May 21, 2019, 07:21:09 pm
Yeah, I knew Bevin was going to get humiliated in his primary. Although I did expect something like 60-35 or whatever.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 21, 2019, 07:21:09 pm
Andy Beshear winning more votes than Bevin is just hilarious.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 21, 2019, 07:23:54 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Thunder98 on May 21, 2019, 07:23:58 pm
Andy Beshear winning more votes than Bevin is just hilarious.


Twitter be like KY is Safe D!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 21, 2019, 07:25:57 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Canis on May 21, 2019, 07:32:00 pm
Hope Beshear pulls this off this is pretty clearly a tossup referring to the general btw


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Thunder98 on May 21, 2019, 07:54:27 pm
Unsurprisingly, it's a Bevin vs Beshear General Election matchup!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on May 21, 2019, 08:15:09 pm
Unsurprisingly, it's a Bevin vs Besar General Election matchup!

Attack of the Killer B's!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Alben Barkley on May 21, 2019, 08:24:16 pm
Yeah, Iím now even more convinced than before that Bevin is screwed. Got BTFO in some very deep red counties. Turnout for him will be atrocious. Beshear will win big in the cities and take some ancestral Dem rural counties. Wins statewide by 2-3 points at least.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: bronz4141 on May 21, 2019, 08:26:29 pm
Beshear will beat Bevin 51%-48% in November.

Bevin rode a red wave from 2014-15 and a Trump pre-wave, but he has been a mediocre governor.

If Bevin loses, I wonder if he challenges McConnell in 2020?

However, Beshear, Stumbo, and French Henry will win their races in November 2019.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Alben Barkley on May 21, 2019, 08:32:29 pm
More embarssing for Bevin than losing those hick counties that are almost all gonna vote for him besides maybe something like Elliot(I don't think its completely gone locally if the 2018 house result was +12 and its clearly like Safe D if Adkins is the nominee) is the fact he doesn't even have a majority in campbell county.

My hot take is that a hypothetical Beshear win over Bevin would include Oldham County and one or two of the Cincinnati suburban counties going blue while East KY still stays red. Adkins probably could have had a parochial bounce there but I doubt Beshear is the one to resurrect those Appalachian Dems

I think Adkins may have had a better chance at flipping a handful of those Eastern counties, looking at the map, but probably Beshear still had/has the best chance overall of winning the state. Those Eastern counties that voted for Adkins and Goforth will probably split their votes, but enthusiasm for Bevin is absolutely nonexistent across the state. The most motivated voters on Election Day will be Beshear voters. ďNot BevinĒ is hands down the most popular candidate in the state.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Could Super Unpopular Bevin Actually lose?
Post by: Alben Barkley on May 21, 2019, 08:43:52 pm
Andy Beshear winning more votes than Bevin is just hilarious.

Will happen again in November.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on May 21, 2019, 08:49:17 pm
I wonder what percentage of Adkins voters in Elliott county will go to Beshear.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 21, 2019, 08:57:50 pm
Bevin wins by double digits.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on May 21, 2019, 08:58:25 pm
I wonder what percentage of Adkins voters in Elliott county will go to Beshear.
probably around two-thirds


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on May 21, 2019, 08:59:43 pm
I wonder what percentage of Adkins voters in Elliott county will go to Beshear.
60% I guess


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Young Conservative on May 21, 2019, 09:07:34 pm
Eastern Kentucky seems to have really liked Rocky Adkins. Huge margins in coal country for him, up to 90% in Rowan. Why?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ses on May 21, 2019, 09:08:54 pm
Eastern Kentucky seems to have really liked Rocky Adkins. Huge margins in coal country for him, up to 90% in Rowan. Why?

Well heís from there, for one thing. The other two candidates are from the metros. Adkins is from Elliott County.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on May 21, 2019, 09:19:54 pm
These results basically mesh well with my initial prediction of Bevin +5 to +8 in the general, although I am surprised he only won his primary by ~13 points... could be a sign of things to come, or not. we'll see.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: libertpaulian on May 21, 2019, 09:40:06 pm
Good sign for JBE and Hood?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on May 21, 2019, 09:47:54 pm

How is an extremely unpopular governor doing poorly in his primary in Kentucky good news for Democratic candidates in Louisiana and Mississippi?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on May 21, 2019, 10:16:40 pm
Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Skye on May 21, 2019, 10:37:30 pm
Hilariously bad results for Bevin. He might just lose the general.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: smoltchanov on May 21, 2019, 11:32:12 pm
Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.

My forecast too. And i expect considerable percentage of Adkins votes going Bevin in November. For many rural "easterners" from coal mines Beshear may be a "liberal city slick"....


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on May 22, 2019, 06:03:49 am
Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.

 from coal mines Beshear may be a "liberal city slick"....
LOL, Edelen would be that


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: smoltchanov on May 22, 2019, 06:56:33 am
Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.

 from coal mines Beshear may be a "liberal city slick"....
LOL, Edelen would be that

101% - yes. But Beshear is pro-choice and popular in urban core. That could be enough for many...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: adamevans on May 22, 2019, 08:26:55 am
Fletcher performed better in his primary against Northup in 2007, before he lost in a landslide against Beshear in the general. The primary results were terrible for Bevin, but most of Goforth's wins came from very conservative areas, so I don't know if Beshear will be able to exploit Bevin's bare win in the primary. Rocky would have been best suited to peal through the areas Goforth did well in.

That said, wouldn't be surprised if Beshear totally blows it and loses by 8%+


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Comrade Funk on May 22, 2019, 08:31:17 am
Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on May 22, 2019, 08:38:53 am
Fletcher performed better in his primary against Northup in 2007, before he lost in a landslide against Beshear in the general. The primary results were terrible for Bevin, but most of Goforth's wins came from very conservative areas, so I don't know if Beshear will be able to exploit Bevin's bare win in the primary. Rocky would have been best suited to peal through the areas Goforth did well in.

That said, wouldn't be surprised if Beshear totally blows it and loses by 8%+
Are you supporting Beshear with you wanting to vomit if Beshear is elected Governor against Vomit Bevin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on May 22, 2019, 08:39:36 am
Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on May 22, 2019, 08:50:53 am
Around 60% of the ballots cast were in the Democratic primary. We knew that was going to happen, especially with the competitive Democratic primary, but in 2015 there were more votes in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary. I would expect at least a third of Adkins voters and maybe 20% of the others in the Democratic primary to vote for Bevin in the general.

It should a little bit concerning to Bevin not only that Gofforth got 39% against him but also the most Republican region in Kentucky voted for Gofforth the most. It's loyally Republican, so it won't vote against him in the general but Republicans not voting may be a serious problem that could cost him the race.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on May 22, 2019, 09:12:48 am
Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: smoltchanov on May 22, 2019, 09:24:01 am
Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: money printer go brrr on May 22, 2019, 09:55:26 am
Eastern Kentucky seems to have really liked Rocky Adkins. Huge margins in coal country for him, up to 90% in Rowan. Why?

Adkins is vocally pro-ilfe and Beshear (and Edelen) were not. Also Adkins is from EKY (Elliott County I think?) and Beshear and Edelen were from further west.

Steve Beshear was also pro-choice and was able to do well in EKY so maybe Andy would still be able to pick up a lot of these voters? I'm always worried when these culture wars issues crop up in rural D areas though so I'm not confident about Beshear winning over Adkins voters on this issue.

Here's another interesting wrinkle:

Quote
Kentucky's pension crisis may be the key issue of this year's election. Every candidate agrees that we are in a mess that needs to be cleaned up. Beshear and Adkins both say that Bevin's tactics have been wholly unsuccessful.

"When this governor tried to slash pensions, I went to the Supreme Court and personally argued for the promised pensions of more than 200,000 teachers, police officers, firefighters, EMS, social workers and nearly all city and county employees in Kentucky," Beshear said on his campaign website.

"What happened to educators and public employees during Matt Bevin's administration is inexcusable," Adkins says on his campaign website. Adkins also told WFPL that he is against privatizing public pensions.

[...]

Matt Bevin has defended his actions, saying that has attacked the pension crisis head-on. "I've never wavered from my original promise to give everything I have...to fix this problem," he said on his campaign website. He says he fought against political pressure and those who tried to come against him "because it was the right thing to do."

Robert Goforth says that pensions are a promise made to city employees and that it is a promise that cannot be broken. "We need to quit alarming people and start finding effective solutions," he says on his campaign website.

(Where do the candidates for Kentucky's governor stand on key issues? - from WHAS (https://www.whas11.com/article/news/politics/where-do-the-candidates-for-kentuckys-governor-stand-on-key-issues/417-0be5a1bf-f503-483d-98df-985a56d1d0b3))

I'd love for EKY voters from old union households/families to to turn out for state pensioners but I'm not confident in that either. Maybe this is part of why Goforth did so well in the Southeast? Scott Walker was able to maintain popularity after Act 10 by turning rural voters against public sector workers by painting them as "elites" predominantly from the major metro areas of Wisconsin. Beshear (Vanderbilt/UVA educated lawyer from Lexington) seems like a good target for some class-based rural resentment even if Bevin is not popular. Adkins maybe would have had some more authority here.

I know lots of things are different but I'm getting a Wisconsin 2014 vibe here...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: lfromnj on May 22, 2019, 03:53:00 pm
Woah Adkins used to be an atlas user



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: adamevans on May 22, 2019, 04:29:56 pm
Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)

Campaigning with any national democrats in Kentucky is astoundingly stupid


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on May 22, 2019, 04:32:49 pm
Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)

Campaigning with any national democrats in Kentucky is astoundingly stupid

This. If Beshear wants to win, he needs to localize localize localize. Gah, this would be so much easier with Adkins.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: smoltchanov on May 22, 2019, 11:23:53 pm
Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)

Campaigning with any national democrats in Kentucky is astoundingly stupid

I never said he must bring Sanders into state. But appeal to "populists" - why not?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: smoltchanov on May 22, 2019, 11:25:16 pm
Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)

Campaigning with any national democrats in Kentucky is astoundingly stupid

This. If Beshear wants to win, he needs to localize localize localize. Gah, this would be so much easier with Adkins.

That's why i considered Adkins to be the best GE candidate. But, as usual, urban core and liberal base outvoted anyone else in primary.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on May 24, 2019, 11:46:30 am
Rocky did extremely well on his home turf in NE KY (like 80%+) which actually isn't coal country.  He won most, but not all of the coal counties in SE KY by less impressive margins.  He lost 5 of the 6 coal counties in WKY.  Clearly, he must have been a good rep over the years to win his area so overwhelmingly, but it doesn't seem to have much if anything to do with coal.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on May 24, 2019, 04:42:17 pm
A Paul Patton v Fogerty map: 50-48% win would certainly be in the realm of possibilities of a Beshear narrow victory.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Alben Barkley on May 24, 2019, 05:15:50 pm
I know this wasnít exactly the most scientific of polls, but still, LOL.

()

I can tell you just about everyone in Kentucky watches LEX 18, and based on the comments of some of their other posts, the Facebook page is populated with a considerable number of Trumpers and boomers. And there were over 34,000 votes, so it was a large sample even if it wasnít representative. So the fact that Bevin still lost it by that much is pretty pathetic.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on May 24, 2019, 05:19:44 pm
Go Beshear


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lucas Whitefur on May 30, 2019, 10:12:13 am
I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on May 30, 2019, 10:26:17 am
I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

If Beshear loses, it will be because Kentucky is a red state to begin with, not because Trump held some rallies there.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on May 30, 2019, 02:49:05 pm
I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Strong Candidate on May 30, 2019, 09:50:04 pm
Something tells me that this thread will be the biggest dumpster fire on the board if this race looks even remotely competitive going into November.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on May 31, 2019, 05:23:03 pm
 
Something tells me that this thread will be the biggest dumpster fire on the board if this race looks even remotely competitive going into November.
It is remotely competitive.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lucas Whitefur on May 31, 2019, 06:04:24 pm
I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.

Sorry for stealing your line.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: decunningham2 on May 31, 2019, 08:32:09 pm
Something tells me that this thread will be the biggest dumpster fire on the board if this race looks even remotely competitive going into November.
It is remotely competitive.

More than remotely.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on May 31, 2019, 09:05:14 pm
I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.

Sorry for stealing your line.

It's fine if you use the line, just know that it's kind of supposed to be a joke...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lucas Whitefur on June 01, 2019, 02:11:42 pm
Interesting article about this race. It's an unpopular man versus an unpopular party.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/01/us/matt-bevin-kentucky.html


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: decunningham2 on June 01, 2019, 03:12:15 pm
Interesting article about this race. It's an unpopular man versus an unpopular party.


Beshear has to hope Adkins can convince those voters to stay onboard. He can't just win with Lexington and Louisville, he needs to perform well in eastern Kentucky.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on June 04, 2019, 03:36:29 am
Tossup


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: timewalker102 on June 04, 2019, 11:44:40 pm
Bevin's best strategy here is to honestly get Trump to campaign for him as much as possible and tie himself to Trump. The man himself seems very unpopular and the only way he can win is by nationalizing the race.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on June 14, 2019, 11:16:35 am


If this is true, Bevin might actually be on track to lose in a landslide.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: We Live in Black and White on June 14, 2019, 11:59:37 am
The fact that the Kentucky GOP are actually sweating about this one gives me legitimate hope. Not a lot of it, but hope nonetheless.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DaWN on June 14, 2019, 12:02:03 pm
I'm sure they were sweating about TN-SEN as well


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on June 14, 2019, 12:10:12 pm
Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on June 14, 2019, 12:13:40 pm
Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.

Even in October polls will "tighten" to Beshear +5 and then election day will shut down any confidence in Kentucky polling (if there is any left).


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 14, 2019, 12:23:11 pm
Bevin could have an approval rating of 10% and this forum would still call the race Safe R. Should be pretty obvious to everyone that he is in massive trouble.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on June 14, 2019, 12:23:41 pm
The fact that the Kentucky GOP are actually sweating about this one gives me legitimate hope. Not a lot of it, but hope nonetheless.
Sadly, this is prolly just to get national rs and by extension Trumps attention.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on June 14, 2019, 12:35:08 pm
Bevin could have an approval rating of 10% and this forum would still call the race Safe R. Should be pretty obvious to everyone that he is in massive trouble.

Less than 10% (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=320633.0) of this forum is calling this race Safe R.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 14, 2019, 01:25:11 pm
Bevin could have an approval rating of 10% and this forum would still call the race Safe R. Should be pretty obvious to everyone that he is in massive trouble.

Less than 10% (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=320633.0) of this forum is calling this race Safe R.

Maybe itís because the Safe R KY posters are well... more "vocal" than the rest of the forum (just like the posters who kept telling us day after day that Moore was going to win AL-SEN no matter what), but I wouldnít be so sure that this yearís race will be a "redux" of KY 2015 when Bevin is far more unpopular than he was in 2015 (although still the same lousy candidate) and the national environment is worse for Republicans today than it was four years ago.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 14, 2019, 03:23:55 pm
This poll reminds me of this D internal poll which gaves McGrath a 15 points lead

https://www.scribd.com/document/379922000/KY-06-DCCC-May-2018


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Blackacre on June 14, 2019, 04:34:48 pm


If this is true, Bevin might actually be on track to lose in a landslide.

Big If True. It'd be so satisfying to see the land of mcconnell flip


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on June 14, 2019, 04:44:26 pm
Pollsters insisting KY Statewide elections are solid R, arent correct. KY elected Grimes, Beshear SR and Paul Patton. Only Rand Paul and Mitch have been elected statewide, and GOP assembly worked with Democratic Governors


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on June 14, 2019, 06:36:53 pm
Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.

Even in October polls will "tighten" to Beshear +5 and then election day will shut down any confidence in Kentucky polling (if there is any left).

If Beshear is consistently ahead all the way through to Election Day, I'd feel fairly confident saying he'll win. just because polls were off in 2015 doesn't mean they will be in 2019.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Alben Barkley on June 15, 2019, 12:24:02 am
If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on June 15, 2019, 12:46:37 am
If Beshear is still ahead comfortably in October, I'll definitely believe that Bevin is in deep trouble. Until then, though, this (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2015/governor/ky/kentucky_governor_bevin_vs_conway_vs_curtis-5692.html) is one reason why I'm hesitant to believe KY polling.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 15, 2019, 01:12:28 am
If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.

Dude calm your sh!t


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on June 15, 2019, 03:48:24 pm
If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.

Dude calm your sh!t

Well, it'll make for some entertaining look back if/when Bevin wins.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on June 15, 2019, 04:09:30 pm
KY have had Paul Patton and Beshear Sr as Govs, after the Ernie Fletcher failed governorship.  Bevin has the same approvals as Fletcher, Beshear Jr can win


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Farmlands on June 15, 2019, 04:24:31 pm
I'm sure they were sweating about TN-SEN as well

I'm sure that by June 2018, the polling was already noticeably and massively shifting in favour of Marsha Blackburn. There was even a poster who had it as their signature with the quote "dumber than Alabama".


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 15, 2019, 04:29:53 pm
John Bel Edwards is Governor of Louisiana. I'm not sure what would be so shocking about Bevin not being re-elected. He's made it more difficult to be diagnosed with Black Lung by revoking the licenses of many doctors, he's made it more difficult to receive workers compensation, which is always a big issue in coal country, he's passed Right to Work, he's insulted teachers, he tried to shred Medicaid etc. He's done everything in his power to alienate coal country and waged a war against the region.

It's not as if coal country is loyal to the Republican Party. It's been voting for the KY GOP at the state level for all of four years! It's only become a stronghold of the GOP at the federal level over the past 5-10 years or so. This is not a place where people identify with the party. We already know that Bevin is hated in places where registered Republicans tend to be working class or poor because his no-name challenger wrecked him in those places. Usually, when this happens, those primary protest voters don't coalesce around the incumbent. See: Swearingen voters in Mingo County, WV.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on June 15, 2019, 04:31:20 pm
I'm sure they were sweating about TN-SEN as well

I'm sure that by June 2018, the polling was already noticeably and massively shifting in favour of Marsha Blackburn. There was even a poster who had it as their signature with the quote "dumber than Alabama" lol.

This is July: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=296377.0


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on June 15, 2019, 04:41:42 pm
Black was leading in the polls in the primary and was costing Blackburn the Senate.

When Lee won the nomination, he solidified the support of conservatives and pulled Blackburn over the finish line.

Bevin has stayed unpopular and will remain unpopular


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 16, 2019, 10:48:21 am
GOP infighting continues in KY. From Courier Journal:

Quote
ELIZABETHTOWN ó Kentucky Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton's fired aide told conservative activists on Saturday that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was behind booting her boss from the 2019 gubernatorial ticket.

Republican Gov. Matt Bevin chose state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, of Winchester, to be his new running mate, much to the chagrin of Hampton's supporters in the tea party movement. [...]

Southworth was terminated from her $81,000-a-year job by the Bevin administration on May 30. Hampton drew attention to the firing with a May 31 tweet that asked Kentuckians for prayers against unknown "dark forces" in the administration who were behind the decision.

The administration's split is becoming a concerning distraction for Kentucky Republicans ahead of the 2019 governor's race against Democrat Andy Beshear.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: elephantower on June 19, 2019, 10:39:04 pm
John Bel Edwards is Governor of Louisiana. I'm not sure what would be so shocking about Bevin not being re-elected. He's made it more difficult to be diagnosed with Black Lung by revoking the licenses of many doctors, he's made it more difficult to receive workers compensation, which is always a big issue in coal country, he's passed Right to Work, he's insulted teachers, he tried to shred Medicaid etc. He's done everything in his power to alienate coal country and waged a war against the region.

It's not as if coal country is loyal to the Republican Party. It's been voting for the KY GOP at the state level for all of four years! It's only become a stronghold of the GOP at the federal level over the past 5-10 years or so. This is not a place where people identify with the party. We already know that Bevin is hated in places where registered Republicans tend to be working class or poor because his no-name challenger wrecked him in those places. Usually, when this happens, those primary protest voters don't coalesce around the incumbent. See: Swearingen voters in Mingo County, WV.

Coal country is loyal to Trump and I'm pretty sure that will be enough for Bevin to win; I doubt people disillusioned with Bevin's cuts will trust Democrats on other issues enough to vote for them. I don't quite understand your point about Mingo County? Just like in the KY primary, voters in both parties picked protest candidates (Adkins/Goforth/Blankenship(!!)/Swearingen), since Appalachian voters don't align well with either party at the moment.

 However, since Trump is aligned with the GOP and hated by the Dem party, I think the majority of eastern KY will fall in line behind the GOP candidates just as in WV 2018. Manchin hung on by the skin of his teeth because his brand was well-differentiated from national democrats, but Beshear is unlikely to replicate that. And even though Bevin is unpopular, it's not like Miller and Morrissey were great fits for the region either....

Miller in particular committed many of the same sins as Bevin and still handily beat a strong opponent. I know there was dumb speculation about a "negative personal vote" for Ojeda, but it's obvious from the primary map that this was not the case; I think the areas where he underperformed were linked by increased loyalty to Trump rather than dislike of Ojeda.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Free Sanchez on June 20, 2019, 10:36:01 pm
Matt Bevin is embarassing. Massie should be governor


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Unbeatable Titan Donna Shalala on July 07, 2019, 12:30:45 pm
I haven't really been following this race, but this video popped up on my twitter feed. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMuh8Q4HSfI) I have no words.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on July 07, 2019, 12:37:04 pm
I haven't really been following this race, but this video popped up on my twitter feed. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMuh8Q4HSfI) I have no words.

Old white men should not try and rap, period.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on July 19, 2019, 05:31:35 pm
Inside Elections shifts race from Lean R to Tossup.



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 19, 2019, 05:37:37 pm
Why?

Matt Bevin is a provocateur. He's like a slightly more professional but much less likable version of Trump. That's why people hate him but that's also why he'll get re-elected.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on July 19, 2019, 05:39:10 pm
A 6 point lead isnt a substantial lead and the ads are just beginning in LA, KY and MS. It's not over til its over


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on July 19, 2019, 07:08:18 pm
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/governor/2019-20-gubernatorial-ratings-juy-19-2019

KY Gov now a tossup


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Mondale on July 22, 2019, 04:22:05 pm
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/governor/2019-20-gubernatorial-ratings-juy-19-2019

KY Gov now a tossup

I dont see how Bevin loses.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: UnselfconsciousTeff on July 23, 2019, 02:21:24 pm
Is Beshear a blue dog or has he also have liberal positions ?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on July 23, 2019, 02:48:44 pm
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/governor/2019-20-gubernatorial-ratings-juy-19-2019

KY Gov now a tossup

I dont see how Bevin loses.

Because Kentucky voters are going to realize that they actually donít like obnoxious rich Republican assholes in executive power. Oh wait.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on July 24, 2019, 05:46:02 pm
For anyone deluding themselves into thinking Bevin can lose:

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1153853095484567552

He's going to get destroyed in those red districts that he kept to a respectable margin in 2015, and Louisville isn't going to come close to countering that.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: jimmie on July 24, 2019, 08:55:24 pm
For anyone deluding themselves into thinking Bevin can lose:

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1153853095484567552

He's going to get destroyed in those red districts that he kept to a respectable margin in 2015, and Louisville isn't going to come close to countering that.

I am one of the largest proponents on the forum that 2016 was a continuation of inevitable trends. 2018 confirmed that with high turn out.

However the thing is that not every election will have a counter wave that 2018 did. They may not be any counter wave at all this November.

It is hardly inevitable that Beshear will be destroyed in the districts he kept to a respectable loss in 2015 and it is hardly inevitable that Bevin will win.

The people who say, "A [party] will never in [state] again!" may be in for a surprise in a few years.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on July 29, 2019, 11:23:36 am
The R Senator who represents Bullitt and part of Jefferson endorsed Beshear today

https://www.wymt.com/content/news/Republican-lawmaker-endorses-Democratic-nominee-for-governor-513337441.html


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Skunk on July 29, 2019, 06:28:13 pm
The R Senator who represents Bullitt and part of Jefferson endorsed Beshear today

https://www.wymt.com/content/news/Republican-lawmaker-endorses-Democratic-nominee-for-governor-513337441.html
Honestly this is starting to give me Kelly-Kobach vibes a tiny bit. Still not convinced that Bevin goes down in the end, but this is playing awfully similar.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: lfromnj on July 29, 2019, 06:31:04 pm
The R Senator who represents Bullitt and part of Jefferson endorsed Beshear today

https://www.wymt.com/content/news/Republican-lawmaker-endorses-Democratic-nominee-for-governor-513337441.html
Honestly this is starting to give me Kelly-Kobach vibes a tiny bit. Still not convinced that Bevin goes down in the end, but this is playing awfully similar.

Only problem is that Kentucky is Trump +36 instead of Trump +20.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on July 29, 2019, 06:34:42 pm
The R Senator who represents Bullitt and part of Jefferson endorsed Beshear today

https://www.wymt.com/content/news/Republican-lawmaker-endorses-Democratic-nominee-for-governor-513337441.html
Honestly this is starting to give me Kelly-Kobach vibes a tiny bit. Still not convinced that Bevin goes down in the end, but this is playing awfully similar.

Only problem is that Kentucky is Trump +36 instead of Trump +20.
Not only is it Trump +30, not +36, but the Democratic tradition is far stronger and the republican has a lower Approval.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 30, 2019, 08:43:25 am
The R Senator who represents Bullitt and part of Jefferson endorsed Beshear today

https://www.wymt.com/content/news/Republican-lawmaker-endorses-Democratic-nominee-for-governor-513337441.html
Honestly this is starting to give me Kelly-Kobach vibes a tiny bit. Still not convinced that Bevin goes down in the end, but this is playing awfully similar.

I was considering posting this but I didn't want to jinx anything, but I gotta to say this brings a valid opinion up.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on July 30, 2019, 09:46:43 am
I wouldnít call it a KS-GOV 2018 redux. There will be no Greg Orman in this race, KS is actually trending Democratic, KY's demographics are far less favorable to Democrats than KS's demographics, etc.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Canis on August 01, 2019, 03:52:15 pm
Yeah I think this will probably be a close one lf beshear wins it'll be by around 1 to 3 points and if bevin wins it'll be within 5


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on August 02, 2019, 10:45:23 am
Yo Fancy Farm is tomorrow who is excited?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on August 03, 2019, 11:57:53 am
Yo Fancy Farm is tomorrow who is excited?

Bevin is so excited his making a fool of himself.

https://www.wkms.org/post/bevin-responds-rival-s-call-labor-sec-firing-over-blackjewel-beshear-buffoon#stream/0


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: scooby on August 03, 2019, 04:48:14 pm
I went to Fancy Farm today. Beshear definitely has enthusiasm in Western Kentucky. Iíve only seen his signs. Bevin was booed repeatedly and throughout his speech. Yelling at him was a blast. Lots of signs among the Republicans for McConnellís primary challenger.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on August 03, 2019, 06:31:08 pm
I went to Fancy Farm today. Beshear definitely has enthusiasm in Western Kentucky. Iíve only seen his signs. Bevin was booed repeatedly and throughout his speech. Yelling at him was a blast. Lots of signs among the Republicans for McConnellís primary challenger.

See any MItch supporters who booed Bevin?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: scooby on August 03, 2019, 07:06:55 pm
I went to Fancy Farm today. Beshear definitely has enthusiasm in Western Kentucky. Iíve only seen his signs. Bevin was booed repeatedly and throughout his speech. Yelling at him was a blast. Lots of signs among the Republicans for McConnellís primary challenger.

See any MItch supporters who booed Bevin?
Maybe not actively booing, but almost nobody cheered Bevin. Some Democrats referenced Robert Goforth.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on August 03, 2019, 07:40:31 pm
I went to Fancy Farm today. Beshear definitely has enthusiasm in Western Kentucky. Iíve only seen his signs. Bevin was booed repeatedly and throughout his speech. Yelling at him was a blast. Lots of signs among the Republicans for McConnellís primary challenger.

See any MItch supporters who booed Bevin?
Maybe not actively booing, but almost nobody cheered Bevin. Some Democrats referenced Robert Goforth.
When you say "democrats", do you mean registered democrats, a lot of whom voted for Trump, or Democratic activists?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: scooby on August 03, 2019, 08:46:20 pm
I went to Fancy Farm today. Beshear definitely has enthusiasm in Western Kentucky. Iíve only seen his signs. Bevin was booed repeatedly and throughout his speech. Yelling at him was a blast. Lots of signs among the Republicans for McConnellís primary challenger.

See any MItch supporters who booed Bevin?
Maybe not actively booing, but almost nobody cheered Bevin. Some Democrats referenced Robert Goforth.
When you say "democrats", do you mean registered democrats, a lot of whom voted for Trump, or Democratic activists?
The Democrats that referenced Goforth were the candidate speakers. By and large, the attending democrats in the audience were members of local teachers unions, labor unions, and other advocacy groups. In fact, though, there were a few cheering Beshear supporters in Trump hats. The went wild for things like medical marijuana and suing Bevin.  SIDE NOTE ó If you wanna see the most #populist son of a b!tch of all time, look up Robert Conwayís speech.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Pollster on August 07, 2019, 09:32:35 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 07, 2019, 10:10:10 pm


Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 07, 2019, 10:33:48 pm
Yeah, Bevin only led in two polls (and even then only narrowly) in 2015 before winning by nine points on election day, most polls had Conway ahead by 2-6. That said, Iím not predicting that this election will play out exactly like the 2015 race did, and Iíd obviously be a lot more confident about Republican chances here if Bevin wasnít such a laughably horrendous candidate.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on August 07, 2019, 10:56:42 pm
Probably a good sign for Bevin. I heard just a few months ago that polls had Beshear up by doubles, so Bevin may be narrowing the gap. A few well-timed Trump rallies probably do Beshear in and he ends up losing 53-46 or something. As for my friend MTTreasurer's point on the polling however, the reason Bevin outperformed polling so much is that the turnout in that election was anemic. I don't expect that to happen this time.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 07, 2019, 11:33:14 pm
Probably a good sign for Bevin. I heard just a few months ago that polls had Beshear up by doubles, so Bevin may be narrowing the gap. A few well-timed Trump rallies probably do Beshear in and he ends up losing 53-46 or something. As for my friend MTTreasurer's point on the polling however, the reason Bevin outperformed polling so much is that the turnout in that election was anemic. I don't expect that to happen this time.

Yeah, Bevin clearly benefited from the R-friendly national environment/enthusiasm gap in 2015, and I donít see him winning by nine points this time unless his approval rating improves significantly for some reason.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on August 08, 2019, 07:04:52 am


Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 08, 2019, 07:18:49 am


Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on August 08, 2019, 07:21:11 am


Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?
That was a public poll


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on August 08, 2019, 08:23:41 am
Yeah, a 5-point lead is bad news for Beshear. It's down from his previous lead, and KY polls are about as reliable as NV polls. Likely R.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ltomlinson31 on August 08, 2019, 09:31:45 am


Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?
That was a public poll

The poll that had her up by 15% was conducted by the DCCC. The CLF also had a poll that was made around the same time that had her up by 13%


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 08, 2019, 10:16:47 am


Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?
That was a public poll

That was most definitely not a public poll lmao


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Zaybay on August 08, 2019, 10:41:09 am
The poll that gave McGrath an insane lead was a DCCC internal that was released like a day or two after the primary or something.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on August 08, 2019, 11:45:38 am


Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
A couple of points about this whole thing-

1. The races that are always cited as evidence- KY GOV 2015 and KY SEN 2014, is not enough to set a precedent. Contrast this with Nevada for example, where we have literally a decade of democrats consistently overperforming polls. Races such as the 2010 senate race show an opposite trend.

2. Both of these races were republican waves, especially in terms of turnout. In this race, I think we can expect turnout to be neutral if not benefitting the democrats.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 08, 2019, 12:45:30 pm
False. There is plenty of precedent with summer polls overestimating Dems in Appalachia. Every WV Senate race since 2012, KY-6 in 2018 and 2012. Do your research yourself before trying to say Iím wrong


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on August 08, 2019, 01:01:59 pm


Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
A couple of points about this whole thing-

1. The races that are always cited as evidence- KY GOV 2015 and KY SEN 2014, is not enough to set a precedent. Contrast this with Nevada for example, where we have literally a decade of democrats consistently overperforming polls. Races such as the 2010 senate race show an opposite trend.

2. Both of these races were republican waves, especially in terms of turnout. In this race, I think we can expect turnout to be neutral if not benefitting the democrats.

Who cares wave year or not it is ky, and the reddening of ky will overwhelm whatever "blue wave" there might be turnout wise this year.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: lfromnj on August 08, 2019, 02:32:23 pm
I mean ky-6 even be considered Appalachia? I think it actually trended D by like 0.02 in 2016.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on August 08, 2019, 02:46:54 pm
False. There is plenty of precedent with summer polls overestimating Dems in Appalachia. Every WV Senate race since 2012, KY-6 in 2018 and 2012. Do your research yourself before trying to say Iím wrong
1. WV is not Kentucky

2. KY--6 is neither Appalachian or a good representation of Kentucky at large.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 08, 2019, 03:11:38 pm
When Bevin inevitably wins, Iím going to resurface these posts where you are splitting hairs getting all lawyerly. Beshear is doomed if heís only barely ahead now in the summer. Take it to the grave. Mississippi is more likely to flip.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on August 08, 2019, 04:21:01 pm
poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lucas Whitefur on August 08, 2019, 04:28:26 pm
Sticking with my prediction of 55-43 in favor of Bevin, at least for now. Bevin is horrible, but at least I'll be able to say "I told you so" on November 6.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 08, 2019, 04:38:54 pm
poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on August 08, 2019, 06:03:18 pm
When Bevin inevitably wins, Iím going to resurface these posts where you are splitting hairs getting all lawyerly. Beshear is doomed if heís only barely ahead now in the summer. Take it to the grave. Mississippi is more likely to flip.
I think Bevin will win, dude. I just do think that Beshear is ahead right now.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on August 08, 2019, 06:05:42 pm
poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
Bredesen was never up by 5-6 points at this point in the cycle.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 08, 2019, 06:40:41 pm
poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
Bredesen was never up by 5-6 points at this point in the cycle.

Youíre right. He was up double digits


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on August 08, 2019, 06:43:48 pm
poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
Bredesen was never up by 5-6 points at this point in the cycle.

Youíre right. He was up double digits
Wrong. He was up by 2 in a Marist poll and down by 4 in a Gravis poll.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: FreeBlago on August 09, 2019, 06:48:55 pm
Lexington and its burbs may not be Louisville, but they aren't Hazard either. Big chunk of the Appalachians in KY-06 are 20-year-old kids who moved there to attend UK. The Appalachians in most of Eastern KY are...not that.

And McGrath was a first-time candidate for federal office. Beshear's had a chance to define himself and is running at the state level.

Doesn't make a lot of sense to compare the two.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on August 09, 2019, 07:41:11 pm
poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
what on earth does the marquette poll in 2016 have to do with polling in Kentucky in 2018


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 09, 2019, 07:52:55 pm
Lexington and its burbs may not be Louisville, but they aren't Hazard either. Big chunk of the Appalachians in KY-06 are 20-year-old kids who moved there to attend UK. The Appalachians in most of Eastern KY are...not that.

And McGrath was a first-time candidate for federal office. Beshear's had a chance to define himself and is running at the state level.

Doesn't make a lot of sense to compare the two.

Youíre right. It doesnít make sense. One was running a in a Trump +15 district. The other is running in a Trump +30 state


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on August 11, 2019, 10:35:26 pm
Lexington and its burbs may not be Louisville, but they aren't Hazard either. Big chunk of the Appalachians in KY-06 are 20-year-old kids who moved there to attend UK. The Appalachians in most of Eastern KY are...not that.

And McGrath was a first-time candidate for federal office. Beshear's had a chance to define himself and is running at the state level.

Doesn't make a lot of sense to compare the two.

Youíre right. It doesnít make sense. One was running a in a Trump +15 district. The other is running in a Trump +30 state
Local=/=federal


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Meltdown Mike on August 12, 2019, 10:55:07 pm
Sticking with my prediction of 55-43 in favor of Bevin, at least for now. Bevin is horrible, but at least I'll be able to say "I told you so" on November 6.

What a big win for you kiddo


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 14, 2019, 09:08:39 pm
Beshear hit the magical 51% mark, 51/49 Beshear


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Sir Mohamed on August 15, 2019, 08:53:00 am
Beshear hit the magical 51% mark, 51/49 Beshear

I would sincerely doubt both add up to 100%. Also, Bevin is still favored. KY polls heavily underestimate GOP support and often late term deciders heavily break for the partisan leaning of this state.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Skunk on August 15, 2019, 12:06:19 pm
Antifa Jenean Hampton??



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on August 20, 2019, 04:05:19 pm
Another GOP politician endorses Beshear.

https://mobile.twitter.com/andybeshearky/status/1163783385300570112?s=21


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Skunk on August 20, 2019, 05:22:36 pm
Another GOP politician endorses Beshear.

https://mobile.twitter.com/andybeshearky/status/1163783385300570112
Andy Beshear is PROUD to be endorsed by moderate Republicans that hit teen cyclists with their cars!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 20, 2019, 06:07:46 pm
Does anybody care about endorsements in 2019?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on August 20, 2019, 10:29:26 pm
Does anybody care about endorsements in 2019?
I do think that although one-off endorsements don't have any real effect, having a plethora of bipartisan endorsements can really contribute to a more palatable message, especially in a state as reoublican as Kentucky.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Young Conservative on August 22, 2019, 12:12:21 pm
Does anybody care about endorsements in 2019?
Short answer: no
Long answer: definitely no


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on August 22, 2019, 01:08:35 pm
Does anybody care about endorsements in 2019?
I do think that although one-off endorsements don't have any real effect, having a plethora of bipartisan endorsements can really contribute to a more palatable message, especially in a state as reoublican as Kentucky.

I think this helped JBE in Louisiana a bit.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on August 23, 2019, 12:46:43 pm
Bevin doing everything he can to lose

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Bevin-says-primary-challenger-Rep-Robert-Goforth-is-a-name-so-easily-forgotten-557894411.html

Here's a longer article on the rift between Bevin and Goforth along with the contrast of Beshear and Rocky being BFFs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-governors-remark-stirs-spat-174531198.html


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Frenchrepublican on August 23, 2019, 04:33:05 pm
Bevin doing everything he can to lose

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Bevin-says-primary-challenger-Rep-Robert-Goforth-is-a-name-so-easily-forgotten-557894411.html

Here's a longer article on the rift between Bevin and Goforth along with the contrast of Beshear and Rocky being BFFs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-governors-remark-stirs-spat-174531198.html

This dude is lucky to run in a such red state


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 23, 2019, 04:44:36 pm
McConnell is hurting BEVIN'S chances, by blocking background checks in Senate


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on August 23, 2019, 04:55:37 pm
Bevin doing everything he can to lose

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Bevin-says-primary-challenger-Rep-Robert-Goforth-is-a-name-so-easily-forgotten-557894411.html

Here's a longer article on the rift between Bevin and Goforth along with the contrast of Beshear and Rocky being BFFs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-governors-remark-stirs-spat-174531198.html

This dude is lucky to run in a such red state

Yeah, Bevin would be gone in a swing state, but in a state like Kentucky, he can lose a lot of Trump voters and still be fine.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on August 29, 2019, 02:34:57 pm
Bevin rally with Trump Jr. in Covington doesn't draw a good crowd:



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on August 29, 2019, 02:55:58 pm
Bevin rally with Trump Jr. in Covington doesn't draw a good crowd:


Lololol


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 29, 2019, 03:07:38 pm
Bevin rally with Trump Jr. in Covington doesn't draw a good crowd:


Lololol
/

Putting those two on stage together without the President is probably not a good use of campaign resources in the first place. 


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Farmlands on August 29, 2019, 03:08:07 pm
Bevin rally with Trump Jr. in Covington doesn't draw a good crowd:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RylandKY/status/1167146895845797888

I'll take all the joy I can get in seeing Bevin embarassed and frustrated time and time again, in anticipation of an undeserved win in November for him. Still hope some Republicans will be disillusioned enough to stay home.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Virginia Yellow Dog on August 29, 2019, 03:08:18 pm
Why is it that of the two governors Kentucky has had since the early 1970s that were Republicans (Ernie Fletcher and now Matt Bevin), they were both so horrible that even Republican voters could only barely stomach them?  Was their statewide bench so sparse that they simply were unable to field better-quality candidates?  


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 29, 2019, 07:59:19 pm
Why is it that of the two governors Kentucky has had since the early 1970s that were Republicans (Ernie Fletcher and now Matt Bevin), they were both so horrible that even Republican voters could only barely stomach them?  Was their statewide bench so sparse that they simply were unable to field better-quality candidates?  

Yes, their statewide bench really was that sparse. There were no statewide executive office Republicans in the lead up to the 2003 gubernatorial election. In the lead up to 2015, James Comer was the only statewide Republican and he seemed pretty promising if I remember right, but he was accused of having his girlfriend from college get an abortion and that allowed Bevin to upset him in the primary


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on August 30, 2019, 02:23:34 pm
Why is it that of the two governors Kentucky has had since the early 1970s that were Republicans (Ernie Fletcher and now Matt Bevin), they were both so horrible that even Republican voters could only barely stomach them?  Was their statewide bench so sparse that they simply were unable to field better-quality candidates?  

Yes, their statewide bench really was that sparse. There were no statewide executive office Republicans in the lead up to the 2003 gubernatorial election. In the lead up to 2015, James Comer was the only statewide Republican and he seemed pretty promising if I remember right, but he was accused of having his girlfriend from college get an abortion and that allowed Bevin to upset him in the primary
Also, Anne Northup could have had a respectable loss instead of the 58-41 margin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 30, 2019, 03:48:52 pm
No one showed up to Trump Junior's rally for Bevin, Bevin will lose


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Duke of York on August 30, 2019, 07:32:47 pm
No one showed up to Trump Junior's rally for Bevin, Bevin will llsw

I hope you're right.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on September 01, 2019, 07:03:14 pm
Bevin doing everything he can to lose

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Bevin-says-primary-challenger-Rep-Robert-Goforth-is-a-name-so-easily-forgotten-557894411.html

Here's a longer article on the rift between Bevin and Goforth along with the contrast of Beshear and Rocky being BFFs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-governors-remark-stirs-spat-174531198.html

This was true in 2015 too though...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on September 01, 2019, 09:54:56 pm
This race is tilt D now


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Mondale on September 01, 2019, 09:59:31 pm
At this point....i hope Bevin wins just so I can predict something right for once


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on September 03, 2019, 10:23:20 pm
lmfao this dude's not gonna win, y'all!



A State Senator from your own party hosting a party to commemorate what a jackass you are ó featuring your own Lieutenant Governor!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 04, 2019, 02:03:42 am
lmfao this dude's not gonna win, y'all!



A State Senator from your own party hosting a party to commemorate what a jackass you are ó featuring your own Lieutenant Governor!

But what about polarization??!?!!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 04, 2019, 02:35:13 am
I will not buy any hype on this race until I see Beshear winning. Or the credible polls have him ahead outside the MoE, over 50% and days before the election. Bevin seems to be a disastrous gov and he deserves to lose, but it's KY after all. And it's not 2005 anymore, when KY was at least more Dem friendly downballot.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on September 04, 2019, 10:51:31 am
I will not buy any hype on this race until I see Beshear winning. Or the credible polls have him ahead outside the MoE, over 50% and days before the election.
then why are you posting in this thread


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 04, 2019, 06:19:03 pm
I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 12, 2019, 02:05:11 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 12, 2019, 02:15:38 pm
I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 12, 2019, 02:19:32 pm
I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change


Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

Heíll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Thunder98 on September 12, 2019, 02:24:02 pm
Bevin wins by 8-12%


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 12, 2019, 02:28:32 pm
This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 12, 2019, 02:56:11 pm
This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

I'm of the opinion that approval and favorability numbers are more of a factor in Gubernatorial elections, while normal partisan leans take precedent in presidential and congressional elections. I think there is recent precedent for that view in KS Governor 18 and LA Governor 15, especially in the latter case. The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

That's why I believe Bevin will loose this race, he simply seems to be so thoroughly unpopular in Kentucky that Beshear has a shot. Now, if this was a Senate race we were talking about, there'd be no chance in hell that the Democrat would prevail, no matter how unpopular MoscowMitch becomes, but I still believe there is a huge difference between how polarized the electorate is regarding state elections, compared with national ones.

Though I might be proven to be too optimistic. We'll just have to wait til November and see. 


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 12, 2019, 02:57:09 pm
This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

Unpopular governors winning reelection because the national environment and their state's partisan lean is hardly unprecedented, think Brownback, Raimondo, Blagojevich. However, the national environment isnít nearly as favorable for Republicans as it was in 2015, so Iím not sure if nationalizing the race or using the Trump playbook will be enough for Bevin. I think the bigger problem for Democrats here is that Beshear is way too liberal for the state on social issues and hasnít really distanced himself enough from the national party.

The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

I agree with this, but keep in mind that JBE is pro-life (and relatively moderate on most other social issues as well) and Democrats have a much higher floor in LA than in KY.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on September 12, 2019, 03:22:57 pm
This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

Unpopular governors winning reelection because the national environment and their state's partisan lean is hardly unprecedented, think Brownback, Raimondo, Blagojevich. However, the national environment isnít nearly as favorable for Republicans as it was in 2015, so Iím not sure if nationalizing the race or using the Trump playbook will be enough for Bevin. I think the bigger problem for Democrats here is that Beshear is way too liberal for the state on social issues and hasnít really distanced himself enough from the national party.


Unpopular governors can also win in bad years for their party, if they're running in a favorable state (Malloy, for example.) I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin. If this were only a Republican-leaning state, Bevin would obviously be in big trouble, but I really don't buy him being vulnerable in a state like Kentucky.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 12, 2019, 04:08:25 pm
Ask Drew Edmondson how an extremely unpopular Republican gubernatorial administration led to him getting clobbered by double digits


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 12, 2019, 04:24:05 pm
Ask Drew Edmondson how an extremely unpopular Republican gubernatorial administration led to him getting clobbered by double digits

Incumbents are different from successors, this we know from plenty of historical examples: comparing OK Gov between 2014 and 2018 is actually one of the best examples. A better case for your point would be CTGOV 2014, when Malloy won reelection despite his unpopular administration and an GOP wave. A good case for the former are AKGOV14 and KSGOV 2014, where the opposition came close to or captured the office despite opposing national headwinds and unfavorable PVI. Like I said, there are plenty of cases and arguments to be had about which will end up as more  important.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 12, 2019, 05:27:22 pm
I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change


Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

Heíll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

I can't wait for the posts saying "How did Beshear lose <insert rural county here> to UNPOPULAR BEVIN when he won it in 2015?! Nobody saw this coming!"


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DTC on September 12, 2019, 05:52:27 pm
I usually agree with IceSpear, but I actually think Beshar has a solid chance of winning


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on September 12, 2019, 05:54:24 pm
I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change


Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

Heíll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

I can't wait for the posts saying "How did Beshear lose <insert rural county here> to UNPOPULAR BEVIN when he won it in 2015?! Nobody saw this coming!"

I don't think you even need to leave the rural county unnamed ;). Also, people will be SHOCKED by his margin in Jefferson, and wonder why the statewide vote didn't swing Beshear's way as much as Jefferson does.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 12, 2019, 08:02:11 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on September 13, 2019, 12:59:18 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.
Rocky would definitely have an edge. I don't see pro lifers frustrated with Bevin all too anxious about voting for Rocky.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 13, 2019, 04:17:00 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on September 13, 2019, 08:31:18 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 13, 2019, 09:14:29 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 13, 2019, 09:22:52 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

Evansville has suburbs?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 13, 2019, 10:16:56 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

Evansville has suburbs?

I'm fairly confident the 'city' of Henderson counts as a suburb.

But this is all about Beshears potential path. That path probably relies far more on places like Bowling Green, Hopkinsville, Henderson, Owensboro, Paducah, Frankfort, the Cincinnati Suburbs, etc, and then getting okay numbers from what rurals still will vote blue, rather than blowing it out in the rural east like the demeocrats of old. Both coalitions include Louisville and Lexington of course.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on September 14, 2019, 12:09:16 am
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 15, 2019, 10:58:15 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.

I have a little secret for ya, bud: itís not because the hicks all view Democrats as socialists now (Republican have been saying that for a hundred years). Think of who the last president was, what his name was, and what his skin color was. I want you to pause and reflect on why you think those rural areas are suddenly so anti-Democrat now all of a sudden. I mean, really, really think on that one.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 15, 2019, 11:09:59 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.

I have a little secret for ya, bud: itís not because the hicks all view Democrats as socialists now (Republican have been saying that for a hundred years). Think of who the last president was, what his name was, and what his skin color was. I want you to pause and reflect on why you think those rural areas are suddenly so anti-Democrat now all of a sudden. I mean, really, really think on that one.


Those hicks voted for Douglas Wilder in 1989 . So are you really seriously gonna claim that Appalachia of the 2010s is more racist than the Appalachia of 1989 lol. The Appalachia of today is dominated by baby boomers, a dem who basically spend almost their entire Adult life in a time after the voting rights act was passed vs the prior gens who spend much of their adult life at a time when segregation wasnt viewed as Normal.



Just please stop



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 15, 2019, 11:13:07 pm
I would LOVE to hear your explanation for it then. And please spare me the socialism BS. And before you blame ďcultural liberalismĒ or social leftists, consider the name Barack Hussein Obama, a black man from the south side of Chicago in the context of that


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: UncleSam on September 15, 2019, 11:20:15 pm
I would LOVE to hear your explanation for it then. And please spare me the socialism BS. And before you blame ďcultural liberalismĒ or social leftists, consider the name Barack Hussein Obama, a black man from the south side of Chicago in the context of that
Uhhh because Bill Clinton of the 90s would be a moderate Republican now, and the Democratic Party has shifted super far left in comparison to that, especially on the environment and guns? You realize that Kentucky, like West Virginia, has large coal and fossil fuel industries that they donít want shut down or regulated out of existence by the EPA?

There are plenty of policy reasons that Kentucky, among other states, has shifted so far right in the last decade or so. I donít doubt that Obama being black had something to do with that, but itís not nearly as large of a reason as you keep insinuating it to be.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 15, 2019, 11:24:45 pm
I would LOVE to hear your explanation for it then. And please spare me the socialism BS. And before you blame ďcultural liberalismĒ or social leftists, consider the name Barack Hussein Obama, a black man from the south side of Chicago in the context of that
Uhhh because Bill Clinton of the 90s would be a moderate Republican now, and the Democratic Party has shifted super far left in comparison to that, especially on the environment and guns? You realize that Kentucky, like West Virginia, has large coal and fossil fuel industries that they donít want shut down or regulated out of existence by the EPA?

There are plenty of policy reasons that Kentucky, among other states, has shifted so far right in the last decade or so. I donít doubt that Obama being black had something to do with that, but itís not nearly as large of a reason as you keep insinuating it to be.

Even if you accept the ridiculous premise that rural voters care that much about an industry that has less than 4,000 jobs total in their region, many of which arenít elanywhere near the same part of the state, how do you explain the rural trends in literally any of the other continental 46 states. Is that because of ďcoalĒ and ďenergyĒ too?

And lol at Bill Clinton being a moderate Republican today. He was just as socially liberal in the 90ís as Barack Obama was in 2008.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 15, 2019, 11:25:40 pm
I would LOVE to hear your explanation for it then. And please spare me the socialism BS. And before you blame ďcultural liberalismĒ or social leftists, consider the name Barack Hussein Obama, a black man from the south side of Chicago in the context of that

Yes some people did switch cause of racism but thats not the main reason or else SW VA would not have voted for Douglas Wilder either.


The main reason by far is the Democrats becoming more and more anti coal over time(That's why you had a huge shift in 2000). The Second reason is yes the Democrats becoming to far left on social issues , but even that is minor reason compared to the Dems becoming anti-coal.


For example if the Dems suddenly became very very anti tech(and openly so as well) you would see a Massive and almost Instant shift in CA and any states where tech is big because the vast majority of people wont vote for a party that would destroy their career no matter what their prior beliefs were.   People vote on pocketbook first and you may think that those types of job should go away, but calling people racist because they dont want to vote for a party that openly wants to see the industry where they have made their careers be destroyed is absurd.








Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 15, 2019, 11:29:05 pm
If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldnít be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naÔve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on September 15, 2019, 11:30:39 pm
McDowell County, WV, 2008:
OBAMA: 53%
McCain: 45%

McDowell County, WV, 2016:
TRUMP: 74%
Clinton: 23%

The rural hicks of West Virginia are all voting Republican now b/c they hate Barack Obama, which is why they... voted for him.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 15, 2019, 11:31:19 pm
Today I learned that the guy who appointed Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer to the Supreme Court would be considered a moderate Republican today.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 15, 2019, 11:33:26 pm
McDowell County, WV, 2008:
OBAMA: 53%
McCain: 45%

McDowell County, WV, 2016:
TRUMP: 74%
Clinton: 23%

The rural hicks of West Virginia are all voting Republican now b/c they hate Barack Obama, which is why they... voted for him.

Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 15, 2019, 11:38:11 pm
If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldnít be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naÔve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam

Here's the Difference, Republicans dont openly like to claim that they want to destroy the industry the region relies on . So they blame the Democrats for wanting to put them in position where they have to get food stamps in the first place, and guess what when a party openly says they wanna destroy your career you would think that as well.

The most fundamental thing to a pocketbook is a job, so when it comes to pocketbook voting that is what will come up first.



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 15, 2019, 11:44:04 pm
If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldnít be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naÔve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam

Here's the Difference, Republicans dont openly like to claim that they want to destroy the industry the region relies on . So they blame the Democrats for wanting to put them in position where they have to get food stamps in the first place, and guess what when a party openly says they wanna destroy your career you would think that as well.

The most fundamental thing to a pocketbook is a job, so when it comes to pocketbook voting that is what will come up first.



Is that why so many coal mining counties swung so heavily Republican in 2008 after the economy crashed, because they trusted the Republican Party more on ďpocketbookĒ and economic issues? Thatís a real puzzler there


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 15, 2019, 11:52:22 pm
If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldnít be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naÔve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam

Here's the Difference, Republicans dont openly like to claim that they want to destroy the industry the region relies on . So they blame the Democrats for wanting to put them in position where they have to get food stamps in the first place, and guess what when a party openly says they wanna destroy your career you would think that as well.

The most fundamental thing to a pocketbook is a job, so when it comes to pocketbook voting that is what will come up first.



Is that why so many coal mining counties swung so heavily Republican in 2008 after the economy crashed, because they trusted the Republican Party more on ďpocketbookĒ and economic issues? Thatís a real puzzler there


They wouldnt have if Obama openly said he was anti-coal in 2008.


https://www.politico.com/story/2012/04/uttered-in-2008-still-haunting-obama-in-2012-074892

Quote
If somebody wants to build a coal-fired power plant, they can. Itís just that it will bankrupt them,


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 15, 2019, 11:53:46 pm
Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly havenít seen the swing map from 1985Ė>1989


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 15, 2019, 11:56:39 pm
Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly havenít seen the swing map from 1985Ė>1989

That happened more in Central VA then SW VA. Again I didnt say racism was no part of the reason it changed but a very minor part. BTW Wilder still one SW VA while losing Prince William County, the and Richmond Suburbs


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 15, 2019, 11:58:28 pm
Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly havenít seen the swing map from 1985Ė>1989

That happened more in Central VA then SW VA. Again I didnt say racism was no part of the reason it changed but a very minor part. BTW Wilder still one SW VA while losing Prince William County, the and Richmond Suburbs

Orange County, CA didnít change overnight either dude


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 16, 2019, 12:01:21 am
Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly havenít seen the swing map from 1985Ė>1989

That happened more in Central VA then SW VA. Again I didnt say racism was no part of the reason it changed but a very minor part. BTW Wilder still one SW VA while losing Prince William County, the and Richmond Suburbs

Orange County, CA didnít change overnight either dude

Its wasnt cause of racism though Appalachia changed. It wasnt overnight exactly thank you, it started changing in 2000 and Dems happily pushed it away since then


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on September 16, 2019, 12:08:06 am
Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 12:14:05 am
Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?

You conveniently left out the violent swing from Kerry to McCain in a lot of these places despite a cratered economy, two wars, and tons of Republican vorruption


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 16, 2019, 12:14:46 am
If coal miners didn't already know they were dead, the last six months should have convinced them.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on September 16, 2019, 12:39:12 am
Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?

You conveniently left out the violent swing from Kerry to McCain in a lot of these places despite a cratered economy, two wars, and tons of Republican vorruption
Not relevant. What happened between 2008 and 2016?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 16, 2019, 12:53:55 am
Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?

You conveniently left out the violent swing from Kerry to McCain in a lot of these places despite a cratered economy, two wars, and tons of Republican vorruption
Not relevant. What happened between 2008 and 2016?

About 200 NG power plants


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 06:26:20 am
Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?

You conveniently left out the violent swing from Kerry to McCain in a lot of these places despite a cratered economy, two wars, and tons of Republican vorruption
Not relevant. What happened between 2008 and 2016?

A black man was President. Duh. Iím sure all these places will stop swinging Republican next year though after the coal industry has all but died out under Trump.

🙄


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on September 16, 2019, 08:01:48 am
Not relevant. What happened between 2008 and 2016?

A black man was President. Duh. Iím sure all these places will stop swinging Republican next year though after the coal industry has all but died out under Trump.

🙄
You think they found out he was black after they voted for him? Walked into the polling booth, saw "Barack Hussein Obama," thought "huh, sounds like a Slovak or something," saw him on TV later and realized he's black? Because right now you're arguing that the very fact of Obama being president made people who voted for Obama get more racist.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on September 16, 2019, 08:30:40 am


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 08:46:13 am
Not relevant. What happened between 2008 and 2016?

A black man was President. Duh. Iím sure all these places will stop swinging Republican next year though after the coal industry has all but died out under Trump.

🙄
You think they found out he was black after they voted for him? Walked into the polling booth, saw "Barack Hussein Obama," thought "huh, sounds like a Slovak or something," saw him on TV later and realized he's black? Because right now you're arguing that the very fact of Obama being president made people who voted for Obama get more racist.

Yes. And frankly I have better things to do with my time than argue with someone who thinks Mitch McConnell has a decent chance of losing to a Democrat


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on September 16, 2019, 08:48:44 am
You think they found out he was black after they voted for him? Walked into the polling booth, saw "Barack Hussein Obama," thought "huh, sounds like a Slovak or something," saw him on TV later and realized he's black? Because right now you're arguing that the very fact of Obama being president made people who voted for Obama get more racist.

Yes. And frankly I have better things to do with my time than argue with someone who thinks Mitch McConnell has a decent chance of losing to a Democrat

lmfao massive IQ on this dude


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TexasGurl on September 16, 2019, 09:08:05 am
I would vote for Beshear, but it's KY so Bevins going to win somehow.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 16, 2019, 09:16:07 am
It seems to me that TrendsareReal has bought the lie that all republican voters are racists. That isn't true. Now there is a racist contingent in the party, and it is growing, but not thanks to the Greater Appalachian "V" (SWPA, WV, SE Ohio, parts of TN, KY, AR, Little Dixie in OK). Rather, it's growth comes from the increasing power of the continually racist deep South, and the new importance of the upper Midwest with it's legacy of informal discrimination. Those places voted against Obama, but voted in their moderate blue dogs locally or congressionally, because those democrats were supposedly different. But, shocker, they were not, and so conserva-dems got swept from power in all levels of government in 2010.

But then, what is it? It isn't coal, like was stated coal provides few jobs and despite it's cultural significance, isn't a motivating economic mover. What's really moving these voters in the "V" is their perception of American culture and the Nation. One of the great historical ironies is that the most poor citizens of a nation are often the most fervent trusters of the nation. They are most likely to have served military time, place trust in the president as a unitary executive, and support all actions of the state even if they are failing like Iraq. When you are born in poverty and have little chance of escaping poverty, you psychologically are more likely to place trust in the national myths and the roads to advancement supposedly open if you just trust. There is a reason why the region has the highest rates of people professing an American nationality and tradition rather than Irish-American or Italian-American or something else.

I suggest you read some Liah Greenfeld, or Broke and Patriotic: Why poor Americans love their country (researched before 2016, not after like other nationalitic works).


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 10:06:57 am
I actually donít think all Republicans are racist. I have plenty of Republican friends and family, and think no less of them because they vote and support Trump. I am merely making the observation that the only thing substantial that changed from the mid 2000ís to 2016 was a black president with a funny name that caused a lot of formerly Democratic-voting people to throw their hands up in anguish in a lot of these rural counties. Barack Obama in 2008 wasnít noticeably different from Bill Clinton in the 1990ís policy-wise in any substantive way. They definitely didnít switch from Kerry to McCain and Romney over economic issues, lol.

Thatís the last Iíll say about this, because clearly itís really controversial on here to even suggest racism played a big part in the rapid Republicanization of these rural areas


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 16, 2019, 10:12:30 am


The FOP endorsing a Dem after BLM and republican hugging that 'blue' vote is a huge surprise.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 16, 2019, 10:23:10 am
I actually donít think all Republicans are racist. I have plenty of Republican friends and family, and think no less of them because they vote and support Trump. I am merely making the observation that the only thing substantial that changed from the mid 2000ís to 2016 was a black president with a funny name that caused a lot of formerly Democratic-voting people to throw their hands up in anguish in a lot of these rural counties. Barack Obama in 2008 wasnít noticeably different from Bill Clinton in the 1990ís policy-wise in any substantive way. They definitely didnít switch from Kerry to McCain and Romney over economic issues, lol.

Thatís the last Iíll say about this, because clearly itís really controversial on here to even suggest racism played a big part in the rapid Republicanization of these rural areas

There was another thing that occurred during that period: the Great Recession. These voters did not lose their jobs because they are already at the lowest rank on the fiscal ladder, and they are not afraid of losing them to mexicans because there are always more burger flippers or walmart stockers or army recruits. These types of voters were always republicans (unless they are a minority) since probably Reagan. What changed was that the recession lowered the entire nation a few financial pegs, and then it took a long slow time to craw back up to where we are before. But like the experts always say, the recovery was unequal. Greater Appalachia never recovered. So now, it is likely that a majority , rather then a minority or plurality, of states like West Virginia and Kentucky are National voters. They lost their routes upwards that would normally be open via the American Economy, so they place their trust in the nation. Hope and dignity are powerful motivators, and if you lose them, suicide or escapism become the only options - ever wonder why opiods are so prevalent in the region? Those are the only options left in the region, place trust and get your dignity from the nation, or escape into depression. Both routes point right towards the republican party. Seriously, read Greenfeld, she talks all about this even the suicide part. That part isn't even unusual, the UK created the first insane asylums in the 19th century for the same type of people.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 10:29:10 am
Weíre literally talking in circles now, but how do you explain the swing to the Republicans in 2008 of all years then? The economy nearly crashed then yet they rewarded the Republican Party with record levels of support (at that point in time) in Appalachia and much of the rural white south


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 16, 2019, 10:38:22 am
Weíre literally talking in circles now, but how do you explain the swing to the Republicans in 2008 of all years then? The economy nearly crashed then yet they rewarded the Republican Party with record levels of support (at that point in time) in Appalachia and much of the rural white south

Which is in line with the transition from economic dignity to national dignity in the V, and the GOP courts that national dignity group. The dems have just become increasing committed to a different type of American nationalism than held by the V (theres like 6 main branches, no need to discuss this here), so its  not hard to see the vote keep sliding from their hands as the states keep falling further and further into blight. The region is different from those further to the south, where two different strains of Nationalism are present, both driven by the color of peoples skin.

But like you said I think everyone here is talking in circles by now, so after two pages and a new news event, its probably time to get back on topic.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on September 16, 2019, 10:39:15 am
Beshear is gonna win this and hopefully this the beginning of the end of McConnell. This race is a referendum on McConnell whose wife Chao, works for Trump


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on September 16, 2019, 10:39:41 am
Of course TrendsAreReal finds a way to derail a thread.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: UncleSam on September 16, 2019, 10:39:48 am
Not relevant. What happened between 2008 and 2016?

A black man was President. Duh. Iím sure all these places will stop swinging Republican next year though after the coal industry has all but died out under Trump.

🙄
You think they found out he was black after they voted for him? Walked into the polling booth, saw "Barack Hussein Obama," thought "huh, sounds like a Slovak or something," saw him on TV later and realized he's black? Because right now you're arguing that the very fact of Obama being president made people who voted for Obama get more racist.

Yes. And frankly I have better things to do with my time than argue with someone who thinks Mitch McConnell has a decent chance of losing to a Democrat
LOL ragequit more

Youíre just upset that your premise makes no sense. These regions swung hard against Hillary, not Obama. Thereís a better argument to be made they did it out of misogyny than racism.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Zaybay on September 16, 2019, 10:58:13 am
Geez, this thread was pretty derailed.

To get back on topic, its good to see that Beshear is getting the endorsement of a usually Republican-aligned group, the KFOP.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on September 16, 2019, 11:02:53 am
2020, will not be a 2016 close election. GoP should be sweeping KY, LA and MS. GoP losing in KY is bad for them


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 12:12:38 pm
You think they found out he was black after they voted for him? Walked into the polling booth, saw "Barack Hussein Obama," thought "huh, sounds like a Slovak or something," saw him on TV later and realized he's black? Because right now you're arguing that the very fact of Obama being president made people who voted for Obama get more racist.

Yes. And frankly I have better things to do with my time than argue with someone who thinks Mitch McConnell has a decent chance of losing to a Democrat

lmfao massive IQ on this dude

Someone who thinks Amy McGaffe has a chance in hell at beating Mitch McConnell should probably not be making any IQ judgments, lol.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 16, 2019, 12:13:55 pm
Not only do we not know how this race between Bevin and Beshear is going to end the race to be the Governor of Stupidville is a complete toss-up between these two: 

Beshear is gonna win this and hopefully this the beginning of the end of McConnell. This race is a referendum on McConnell whose wife Chao, works for Trump

A black man was President. Duh. Iím sure all these places will stop swinging Republican next year though after the coal industry has all but died out under Trump.

🙄


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 12:16:24 pm
It's very amusing that so many people here think Appalachia is not racist. Clearly anyone who thinks this has never actually been there. These people are the archetypal Kerry/McCain "swing voters":

https://youtu.be/IhporHhKbJA

But yeah, I'm sure they changed party allegiance because of :) pocketbook issues :) and :) kitchen table issues :) and :) environmental issues :) and :) socialism :) rather than racism!

The #populists <3 who fetishize rural whites need to get a grip and actually go down to Appalachia for a few minutes and talk to a few of the locals. Your delusions will very quickly become dispelled. I am not surprised that the people arguing against this hail from states such as Massachusetts, California, Oregon, and Illinois, lol.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 12:27:05 pm
These regions swung hard against Hillary, not Obama.

()

()

()

()

This despite the fact that the incumbent Republican with a 25% approval rating was blamed for the economic crash that occured a month before the election, and the fact that Republicans nominated a Gordon Gekko clone who literally was on tape saying "I like being able to fire people", "corporations are people my friend", and bashing the "47% of people who are dependent on government", which includes countless racist Appalachian whites that supported McCain/Romney in droves after previously voting for liberal coastal elitist John Kerry. Go figure. 🤔


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 16, 2019, 12:31:04 pm
FOP endorsed Beshear and Henry but all the other Republicans, interestingly.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 16, 2019, 12:47:34 pm
These regions swung hard against Hillary, not Obama.

()

()

()

()

This despite the fact that the incumbent Republican with a 25% approval rating was blamed for the economic crash that occured a month before the election, and the fact that Republicans nominated a Gordon Gekko clone who literally was on tape saying "I like being able to fire people", "corporations are people my friend", and bashing the "47% of people who are dependent on government", which includes countless racist Appalachian whites that supported McCain/Romney in droves after previously voting for liberal coastal elitist John Kerry. Go figure. 🤔



Obama literally said he would bankrupt the coal companies. By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on September 16, 2019, 12:53:19 pm
IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

Anyway, on topic — have to read the FOP endorsement as a good omen. Pretty clear in the downballot races (with the possible exception of AG? not sure where Stumbo is on policing) they're just trying to pick winners.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 01:11:21 pm
IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370. ;)

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 16, 2019, 01:14:16 pm
IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370. ;)

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?


Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .




Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 16, 2019, 01:29:33 pm
IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370. ;)

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?


Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .




What part of KY did they live in?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 16, 2019, 01:32:12 pm
IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370. ;)

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?


Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .




What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you canít call someone racist just for that type of voting record


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on September 16, 2019, 01:35:26 pm
IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370. ;)

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?


Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .




What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you can’t call someone racist just for that type of voting record
Funnily enough there are 3 Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton towns in Massachusetts.

IceSpear: "Kerry/McCain voters are all racists!"

Also IceSpear: "Romney/Clinton voters can't be racist!"


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 01:38:28 pm
IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370. ;)

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?


Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .




What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you canít call someone racist just for that type of voting record
Funnily enough there are 3 Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties in Massachusetts.

IceSpear: "Kerry/McCain voters are all racists!"

Also IceSpear: "Romney/Clinton voters can't be racist!"

Uh, what? Democrats have won every county in Massachusetts since 1992.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on September 16, 2019, 01:40:17 pm
IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370. ;)

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?


Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .




What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you canít call someone racist just for that type of voting record
Funnily enough there are 3 Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties in Massachusetts.

IceSpear: "Kerry/McCain voters are all racists!"

Also IceSpear: "Romney/Clinton voters can't be racist!"

Uh, what? Democrats have won every county in Massachusetts since 1992.
*Towns, my bad.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 01:43:35 pm
IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370. ;)

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?


Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .




What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you canít call someone racist just for that type of voting record
Funnily enough there are 3 Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties in Massachusetts.

IceSpear: "Kerry/McCain voters are all racists!"

Also IceSpear: "Romney/Clinton voters can't be racist!"

Uh, what? Democrats have won every county in Massachusetts since 1992.

*Towns, my bad.

1) In that case there's the obvious home state effect of Kerry/Romney to take into account. If McCain and Romney and/or their VPs were from Appalachia maybe you'd have a point.

2) I doubt the swings were anywhere near the level of Appalachia.

3) Even if they were, yes, racists exist in Massachusetts as well. Just not anywhere near as much as there are in Appalachia.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 01:55:45 pm
I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. Iím sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on September 16, 2019, 02:02:04 pm
I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. Iím sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.
Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 02:06:48 pm
I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. Iím sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.
Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.

The morning after Obama won in 2008, teammates of mine on my football team thought it would be hilarious to wear towels on their heads to school the next morning because they were adamant he would impose Sharia Law. Thereís plenty of these examples, but not sure if theyíre safe for work ;)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on September 16, 2019, 02:07:11 pm
I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. I’m sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.
Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.

The morning after Obama won in 2008, teammates of mine on my football team thought it would be hilarious to wear towels on their heads to school the next morning because they were adamant he would impose Sharia Law. There’s plenty of these examples, but not sure if they’re safe for work ;)
You literally live in San Antonio lmao


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 02:08:48 pm
I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. Iím sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.
Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.

The morning after Obama won in 2008, teammates of mine on my football team thought it would be hilarious to wear towels on their heads to school the next morning because they were adamant he would impose Sharia Law. Thereís plenty of these examples, but not sure if theyíre safe for work ;)
You literally live in San Antonio lmao

Itís called growing up and moving the hell out of there dude


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 02:12:21 pm
I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. Iím sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.
Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.

Do multiple members of my extended (thankfully) family in rural Kentucky calling Obama a n!gger count? I'm sure they'd be won over if only Dems talked more about :) kitchen table issues :) and #populism <3


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on September 16, 2019, 02:25:44 pm
This showed up in my in my newsfeed one day.  In the proud tradition of the war on poverty, the ARC, JFK, Rockefeller, her Catholic church, etc... one Virginia college girl would go on service trips to WV each summer.  Why she won't be going back.

https://www.cavalierdaily.com/article/2019/05/my-service-trip-to-west-virginia-raises-ethical-questions


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 02:33:40 pm
This showed up in my in my newsfeed one day.  In the proud tradition of the war on poverty, the ARC, JFK, Rockefeller, her Catholic church, etc... one Virginia college girl would go on service trips to WV each summer.  Why she won't be going back.

https://www.cavalierdaily.com/article/2019/05/my-service-trip-to-west-virginia-raises-ethical-questions

Quote
Confederate flags hang from the front porches of houses and private businesses that we drive past. One project team even stumbled upon a room full of Nazi paraphernalia in the house they were assigned.

LOL. But again, I'm sure Atlas posters from CA/IL/MA/OR who have never been to Appalachia know better than the people who actually have.

I bet the guy with the Nazi paraphernalia would vote Beshear. :D


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 16, 2019, 03:44:45 pm
Reason number 728,393 Bevin should lose



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on September 16, 2019, 03:48:30 pm
Beshear: *doom and gloom music*
Bevin: Guitar riffs :)
...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on September 16, 2019, 04:14:14 pm
Quote
"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites. :)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 04:28:39 pm
Quote
"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites. :)

Yeah, I stand corrected. Republicans definitely aren't appealing to subconscious racism in this ad at all.

This is the kind of pocketbook stuff Mr. Computer was telling me about.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 04:34:32 pm
Quote
"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites. :)

Yeah, I stand corrected. Republicans definitely aren't appealing to subconscious racism in this ad at all.

This is the kind of pocketbook stuff Mr. Computer was telling me about.

There's nothing "subconscious" about it, lol.

This ad and the eventual Trump rallies will whip the frothing Racist KY Hicks into a frenzy and devastate Beshear. His October collapse will rival and perhaps even surpass Bredesen's.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 16, 2019, 05:48:48 pm
Quote
"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites. :)

Yeah, I stand corrected. Republicans definitely aren't appealing to subconscious racism in this ad at all.

This is the kind of pocketbook stuff Mr. Computer was telling me about.

There's nothing "subconscious" about it, lol.

This ad and the eventual Trump rallies will whip the frothing Racist KY Hicks into a frenzy and devastate Beshear. His October collapse will rival and perhaps even surpass Bredesen's.


You had almost all the candidates on the Democratic side raise their hands in support of decriminalizing illegal crossings aka open borders(Biden was the exception). So Democrats first started to alienate these voters by going in a super anti coal direction over the past 20 years , and now are advocating crazy policies on immigration as well which alienates even more voters. Again though even then this is a very minor issue compared to coal for these voters.


Now here's the thing you might not think coal should be saved and you might think the government should do all it can to kill it, but then dont get so upset and then call voters in areas that benefit from coal racist.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 05:52:17 pm
Because the place every immigrant that comes to America wants to go is Kentucky right


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 16, 2019, 06:03:04 pm
Because the place every immigrant that comes to America wants to go is Kentucky right

That is not what I said, stop strawmanning my posts


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 16, 2019, 06:08:31 pm
You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary ďillegal job stealers and rapistsĒ that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you canít even make this stuff up 😂


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 16, 2019, 06:10:07 pm
You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary ďillegal job stealers and rapistsĒ that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you canít even make this stuff up 😂


No Coal was 75% of the reason and still is. That ad will only help Bevin in efforts to turnout the hard core of hardcore base


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 16, 2019, 06:11:40 pm
You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary “illegal job stealers and rapists” that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you can’t even make this stuff up


No Coal was 75% of the reason and still is. That ad will only help Bevin in efforts to turnout the hard core of hardcore base

Which is what, like half of the electorate of Kentucky?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 16, 2019, 06:22:58 pm
You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary ďillegal job stealers and rapistsĒ that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you canít even make this stuff up 😂


No Coal was 75% of the reason and still is. That ad will only help Bevin in efforts to turnout the hard core of hardcore base

Which is what, like half of the entire f&cking electorate of Kentucky?


The ones who care about immigration more than Coal probably 1/5



The vast majority of people in a Appalachian Kentucky  vote on the issue of coal


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 16, 2019, 06:23:30 pm
Quote
"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites. :)

Yeah, I stand corrected. Republicans definitely aren't appealing to subconscious racism in this ad at all.

This is the kind of pocketbook stuff Mr. Computer was telling me about.

There's nothing "subconscious" about it, lol.

This ad and the eventual Trump rallies will whip the frothing Racist KY Hicks into a frenzy and devastate Beshear. His October collapse will rival and perhaps even surpass Bredesen's.


You had almost all the candidates on the Democratic side raise their hands in support of decriminalizing illegal crossings aka open borders(Biden was the exception). So Democrats first started to alienate these voters by going in a super anti coal direction over the past 20 years , and now are advocating crazy policies on immigration as well which alienates even more voters. Again though even then this is a very minor issue compared to coal for these voters.


Now here's the thing you might not think coal should be saved and you might think the government should do all it can to kill it, but then dont get so upset and then call voters in areas that benefit from coal racist.

Because the ad was clearly a reasonable and well thought out criticism of Democrats' immigration policy. ::)

More like "SPOOKY VIOLENT TATTOOED BROWN PEOPLE IN GANGS! BESHEAR LOVES THEM AND HATES TRUMP! VOTE BEVIN!"

Excellent strategy from Bevin. He's inevitable. Much like Trump, he knows his base. Racist KY Hicks will eat up this slop like pigs at the trough.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on September 16, 2019, 10:52:07 pm
I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.

I have a little secret for ya, bud: itís not because the hicks all view Democrats as socialists now (Republican have been saying that for a hundred years). Think of who the last president was, what his name was, and what his skin color was. I want you to pause and reflect on why you think those rural areas are suddenly so anti-Democrat now all of a sudden. I mean, really, really think on that one.

I'm very well aware of the role that racism has played, and continues to play, in Appalachia's movement towards the Democratic Party. It's one of the major factors that caused the Deep South to move into the Republican column as well, back during the Civil Rights Era and in the decades since. But there is no doubt that the modern-day Party's views on social issues, particularly gun rights, gay marriage, and abortion, has also played a role in fueling the region's realignment. These issues, in conjunction with the Monica Lewinsky scandal and the Democratic advocacy for climate change efforts (and hence, opposition to fossil fuels), help explain Al Gore's losses in the region to George W. Bush in 2000, and the continuing Democratic erosion in the coalfields of Eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, SW Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio, etc.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on September 17, 2019, 12:22:32 am
LOL. But again, I'm sure Atlas posters from CA/IL/MA/OR who have never been to Appalachia know better than the people who actually have.
1. Not from Illinois.
2. In Tennessee right now.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: darklordoftech on September 17, 2019, 12:56:31 am
Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on September 17, 2019, 12:00:37 pm
Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TML on September 17, 2019, 12:04:52 pm
Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.

In some areas, it took until the late 2000s (or later) for there to be enough Republican-leaning voters to displace older, unionized Democratic voters.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on September 17, 2019, 05:22:12 pm
GOP Attorney General candidate may be removed from ballot due to not having the required qualifications:

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article235134752.html


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 17, 2019, 05:40:20 pm
Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.

Kerry barely did better than Obama in WV(0.2%) and Kerry never said anything about bankrupting the coal industry. Also their were still more voters from the old GI Gen voting in 2004 while in 2008 their were less voters form that Gen so that explains the shift. Ralph Nader also got 1% of the vote in 2008 while in 2004 he got 0.54% and Cynthia McKinney also got .33% . So the Left Voting Block actually was higher in 2008 then in 2004 in WV



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: darklordoftech on September 17, 2019, 05:51:43 pm
Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.
Isnít Gore known as ďthe global warming guyĒ?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on September 17, 2019, 06:13:31 pm
Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.
Isnít Gore known as ďthe global warming guyĒ?

Not in 2000


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 24, 2019, 04:22:01 pm
Returning conversation to that about the campaigns;



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on September 24, 2019, 05:25:24 pm
Waiting for Trump to descend on the state say Beshear supports criminal illegals, and killing newborns, and then Bevin wins by 8.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on September 24, 2019, 05:37:48 pm
lol yes he was. remember, losing WV, especially by 6 points, was unheard of for a dem coming that close in 2000.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 04, 2019, 04:37:57 pm
Oof



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DaWN on October 04, 2019, 04:39:20 pm
Oof



'He' is probably Beshear lmao


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 04, 2019, 04:40:44 pm
Oof



'He' is probably Beshear lmao
Are you seriously trying to spin this?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Pericles on October 04, 2019, 04:52:53 pm
Republicans are good at managing expectations, and they can misread their races too-most Republican elected officials probably thought Trump was doomed in 2016. The word of some elected official doesn't count for much compared to Kentucky's recent history and the evidence which suggests that Bevin is favored.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Frenchrepublican on October 04, 2019, 04:55:44 pm
Oof



Most of KY republican operatives hate Bevin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DaWN on October 04, 2019, 05:01:06 pm
Oof



'He' is probably Beshear lmao
Are you seriously trying to spin this?

I mean, it isn't really indicative of anything. Top Republicans were super concerned about TN-Sen last year and we all remember what happened then. I'll at least admit Bevin will win by an embarrassing margin but he won't win. Sorry. I'd save all your hope for JBE who is still in with a very good shot.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 04, 2019, 11:24:24 pm
Oof



'He' is probably Beshear lmao
Are you seriously trying to spin this?

I mean, it isn't really indicative of anything. Top Republicans were super concerned about TN-Sen last year and we all remember what happened then. I'll at least admit Bevin will win by an embarrassing margin but he won't win. Sorry. I'd save all your hope for JBE who is still in with a very good shot.

Yes, I'm old enough to remember when TN-Sen was surely a toss up because some random operatives in a Politico article said so.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 05, 2019, 09:33:23 pm
When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Zot on October 05, 2019, 10:02:22 pm
Why are you leftist so obsessed with race? Our election has nothing to do with it.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 06, 2019, 09:53:10 am
Why are you leftist so obsessed with race? Our election has nothing to do with it.
Governor Bevin disagrees.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 06, 2019, 10:18:26 am
Oof




Meanwhile, both parties have this race ďvery closeĒ (https://www.glasgowdailytimes.com/opinion/ellis-should-bevin-and-trump-worry/article_2d82727e-e6bf-11e9-826b-5b348f2540d4.html)

Gee. I wonder how the undecideds break


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 06, 2019, 08:12:44 pm
When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.

Meh, I mean, Louie Gohmert and Tom Cotton are awful too, but no Democrats will be mad about it when they win because everyone knows it's inevitable. Same thing for this race.

Actually if anything the aforementioned are worse since they impact all of us through the Congress. Thankfully, Bevin will remain solely Kentucky's problem.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 06, 2019, 09:21:32 pm
When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.

Meh, I mean, Louie Gohmert and Tom Cotton are awful too, but no Democrats will be mad about it when they win because everyone knows it's inevitable. Same thing for this race.

Actually if anything the aforementioned are worse since they impact all of us through the Congress. Thankfully, Bevin will remain solely Kentucky's problem.

Fair enough. But Bevin is up there with Rick Scott in my book of the worst of the worst.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 06, 2019, 09:21:54 pm
But the reactions here when Bevin wins are gonna be pretty funny.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus! on October 06, 2019, 11:54:28 pm
Could we possibly, PLEASE, withhold calling this race and calling everyone who disagrees idiots until we actually get some, y'know, real polling??

I mean yes, KY is ruby red and pro-Trump, but has shown even in this decade a willingness to vote Democratic down ballot. Bevin has horrific favorables and is running a poor campaign, plus Beshear is a good candidate.

Can we just universally call this Lean R/Undecided until polling arrives?

Truly, beyond what I mentioned above, no one really has any clue how this race is shaping up.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on October 07, 2019, 02:35:48 am
When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.

Meh, I mean, Louie Gohmert and Tom Cotton are awful too, but no Democrats will be mad about it when they win because everyone knows it's inevitable. Same thing for this race.

Actually if anything the aforementioned are worse since they impact all of us through the Congress. Thankfully, Bevin will remain solely Kentucky's problem.

Fair enough. But Bevin is up there with Rick Scott in my book of the worst of the worst.

Rick Scott was an amazing Governor even though Bush and now DeSantis were better. Scott > Crist though


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 07, 2019, 02:45:21 pm
When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.

Meh, I mean, Louie Gohmert and Tom Cotton are awful too, but no Democrats will be mad about it when they win because everyone knows it's inevitable. Same thing for this race.

Actually if anything the aforementioned are worse since they impact all of us through the Congress. Thankfully, Bevin will remain solely Kentucky's problem.

Fair enough. But Bevin is up there with Rick Scott in my book of the worst of the worst.

Rick Scott was an amazing Governor even though Bush and now DeSantis were better. Scott > Crist though

Yeah, when he destroyed the public sector and caused an environmental crisis that was awesome.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on October 07, 2019, 06:38:34 pm
When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.

Meh, I mean, Louie Gohmert and Tom Cotton are awful too, but no Democrats will be mad about it when they win because everyone knows it's inevitable. Same thing for this race.

Actually if anything the aforementioned are worse since they impact all of us through the Congress. Thankfully, Bevin will remain solely Kentucky's problem.

Fair enough. But Bevin is up there with Rick Scott in my book of the worst of the worst.

Rick Scott was an amazing Governor even though Bush and now DeSantis were better. Scott > Crist though

Yeah, when he destroyed the public sector and caused an environmental crisis that was awesome.


He helped the private sector a lot(aka where vast majority of people work ) and reducing the size of government is a good thing , wish more Republicans actually did that


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 07, 2019, 06:40:42 pm
Could we possibly, PLEASE, withhold calling this race and calling everyone who disagrees idiots until we actually get some, y'know, real polling??

I mean yes, KY is ruby red and pro-Trump, but has shown even in this decade a willingness to vote Democratic down ballot. Bevin has horrific favorables and is running a poor campaign, plus Beshear is a good candidate.

Can we just universally call this Lean R/Undecided until polling arrives?

Truly, beyond what I mentioned above, no one really has any clue how this race is shaping up.

There are actually plenty of clues how this race will end up. The first clue is that itís a partisan election being held in Kentucky.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 07, 2019, 06:47:47 pm
Could we possibly, PLEASE, withhold calling this race and calling everyone who disagrees idiots until we actually get some, y'know, real polling??

I mean yes, KY is ruby red and pro-Trump, but has shown even in this decade a willingness to vote Democratic down ballot. Bevin has horrific favorables and is running a poor campaign, plus Beshear is a good candidate.

Can we just universally call this Lean R/Undecided until polling arrives?

Truly, beyond what I mentioned above, no one really has any clue how this race is shaping up.

There are actually plenty of clues how this race will end up. The first clue is that itís a partisan election being held in Kentucky.
Senator Moore, Senator Morrissey, Senator Rosendale and Governor Kobach agree.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 07, 2019, 07:11:45 pm

Bevin is not a pedophile.


Nor is he a carpetbagger running against a popular incumbent.


Kobach would've won easily if KS was as red as KY.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on October 07, 2019, 07:19:12 pm
But the reactions here when Bevin wins are gonna be pretty funny.

At this rate, a Beshear win would be funnier.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Pericles on October 07, 2019, 07:20:13 pm
What are some gubernatorial races with similar dynamics in states as Democratic as Kentucky is Republican? What were the results of those (not just who won but the margin)?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: NeverAgainsSock on October 07, 2019, 07:54:13 pm
What are some gubernatorial races with similar dynamics in states as Democratic as Kentucky is Republican? What were the results of those (not just who won but the margin)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 07, 2019, 08:09:05 pm
What are some gubernatorial races with similar dynamics in states as Democratic as Kentucky is Republican? What were the results of those (not just who won but the margin)?

Nothing fits perfectly, but probably the closest parallels are Muhloy, Muhry Fallin, Raimuhndo, and Brownback (can't do a good muh for him.)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on October 07, 2019, 08:10:09 pm
What are some gubernatorial races with similar dynamics in states as Democratic as Kentucky is Republican? What were the results of those (not just who won but the margin)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election

Keep in mind the turnout for that one was abysmally low.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 07, 2019, 08:16:08 pm
What are some gubernatorial races with similar dynamics in states as Democratic as Kentucky is Republican? What were the results of those (not just who won but the margin)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election

Wow, look at all those rural counties Conway won! Beshear will be lucky to win half that many.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 07, 2019, 08:47:43 pm
It's like ya'll were knocked out in 2012 and are just now waking up.

Also, is it still controversial to claim Kansas is more D than kentucky? Cause it is.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on October 07, 2019, 09:20:43 pm
Here's a thought: If Bevin does win easily, will people claiming that this is a Toss-Up race or that Beshear is going to win because Bevin was unpopular admit that they were wrong? Because as I've said before, I'll happily eat crow if Beshear somehow wins.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 07, 2019, 09:25:09 pm
Here's a thought: If Bevin does win easily, will people claiming that this is a Toss-Up race or that Beshear is going to win because Bevin was unpopular admit that they were wrong? Because as I've said before, I'll happily eat crow if Beshear somehow wins.
As will I, if Beshear wins I'll be jumping up and down like a lunatic. Not that I expect too.


What's going to be annoying is all the moronic "Dems in disarray" takes when Bevin wins.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 07, 2019, 09:29:10 pm
Here's a thought: If Bevin does win easily, will people claiming that this is a Toss-Up race or that Beshear is going to win because Bevin was unpopular admit that they were wrong? Because as I've said before, I'll happily eat crow if Beshear somehow wins.

Based on what happened in the NC-9 special election when some people thought there was no way McCready could ever improve in the suburban areas that Bishop represented in the Senate and lose a lot of ground in the rural areas at the same time, my guess is that they will remain radio silent on election night and stay away from the Kentucky thread


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on October 07, 2019, 10:04:23 pm
AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 07, 2019, 10:37:40 pm
AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TML on October 07, 2019, 11:24:44 pm
AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on October 08, 2019, 10:06:29 am
AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.
No, it's the other way around ó it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 08, 2019, 06:43:51 pm
AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.
No, it's the other way around ó it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

Man, that is a scorching red hot chili pepper take if I've ever seen one.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on October 08, 2019, 07:20:39 pm
No, it's the other way around ó it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

Man, that is a scorching red hot chili pepper take if I've ever seen one.
It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Pericles on October 08, 2019, 07:37:21 pm
No, it's the other way around ó it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

Man, that is a scorching red hot chili pepper take if I've ever seen one.
It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

Tbh the Jones people have an incentive to spin the results as a mandate for Doug Jones and not just a fluke caused by Moore's pedophilia accusations. The public polling also showed a sharp trend towards Jones as a result of the accusations and Moore never got back to the same lead he had beforehand. Without the accusations I think Moore wins by high single digits, which would still have been an embarrassing performance for a Republican in Alabama and a good performance by Jones.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 08, 2019, 07:49:14 pm
AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.
No, it's the other way around ó it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

This has to be the worst analysis since Dick Morris in 2012


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on October 08, 2019, 08:16:58 pm
It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

Tbh the Jones people have an incentive to spin the results as a mandate for Doug Jones and not just a fluke caused by Moore's pedophilia accusations. The public polling also showed a sharp trend towards Jones as a result of the accusations and Moore never got back to the same lead he had beforehand. Without the accusations I think Moore wins by high single digits, which would still have been an embarrassing performance for a Republican in Alabama and a good performance by Jones.
This was not a public meeting and I was not working as a journalist at the time. This staffer was also no longer employed by Jones.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: #Solid4096 on October 08, 2019, 11:13:29 pm
The difference is way smaller than you think:

KY: Trump + 30, Romney + 23
KS: Trump + 20, Romney + 22


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Pericles on October 08, 2019, 11:20:32 pm
The difference is way smaller than you think:

KY: Trump + 30, Romney + 23
KS: Trump + 20, Romney + 22

Hypothetically, if Beshear outperforms the presidential margin by the same amount that Kelly did, he loses by 3%.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 08, 2019, 11:47:13 pm
The difference is way smaller than you think:

KY: Trump + 30, Romney + 23
KS: Trump + 20, Romney + 22

2012 numbers are irrelevant. TX-07 literally has the same PVI as WI-08 due to 2012 numbers, lol.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus! on October 09, 2019, 12:27:51 am
Could we possibly, PLEASE, withhold calling this race and calling everyone who disagrees idiots until we actually get some, y'know, real polling??

I mean yes, KY is ruby red and pro-Trump, but has shown even in this decade a willingness to vote Democratic down ballot. Bevin has horrific favorables and is running a poor campaign, plus Beshear is a good candidate.

Can we just universally call this Lean R/Undecided until polling arrives?

Truly, beyond what I mentioned above, no one really has any clue how this race is shaping up.

In one ear.... ::)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Pericles on October 09, 2019, 03:40:48 am
It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

Tbh the Jones people have an incentive to spin the results as a mandate for Doug Jones and not just a fluke caused by Moore's pedophilia accusations. The public polling also showed a sharp trend towards Jones as a result of the accusations and Moore never got back to the same lead he had beforehand. Without the accusations I think Moore wins by high single digits, which would still have been an embarrassing performance for a Republican in Alabama and a good performance by Jones.
This was not a public meeting and I was not working as a journalist at the time. This staffer was also no longer employed by Jones.

It's still something they'd want to believe and would make the Jones campaign look good. I remember seeing this argument in an interview with Vox and it doesn't seem plausible tbh. The evidence points strongly that this take is not accurate and the conventional wisdom actually gets this one right. You could argue about how much the pedophilia factor benefited Jones, but it's almost certain that this factor did help him, and likely that it helped him significantly.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on October 09, 2019, 12:59:43 pm
It will be interesting to see how coal counties votes given the massive chaos and job losses in the last six months.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 09, 2019, 01:13:32 pm
It will be interesting to see how coal counties votes given the massive chaos and job losses in the last six months.
They will vote for Matt Bevin. Trump will come down to the coal counties and give a speech on Beshear will steal the jobs and turn the Cracker Barrel into a Taco Bell and they'll all vote GOP.

Obviously an exaggeration, but is it?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on October 09, 2019, 02:36:55 pm
It will be interesting to see how coal counties votes given the massive chaos and job losses in the last six months.
They will vote for Matt Bevin. Trump will come down to the coal counties and give a speech on Beshear will steal the jobs and turn the Cracker Barrel into a Taco Bell and they'll all vote GOP.

Obviously an exaggeration, but is it?

Maybe. Maybe they don't vote.  Just interesting to see what they'll do.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 10, 2019, 02:49:31 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 10, 2019, 03:29:52 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.
I wasn't here for 2017, but I thought AL-Sen was a tossup and as was KS-Gov.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on October 10, 2019, 03:49:44 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 10, 2019, 03:56:02 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.
Not you specifically, but some other users I remember saying they wanted Colyer to win the primary to prevent the risk of Kobach winning, and when I pointed out Kobach would be easier to beat, they were like "lol no, Kobach is still going to win!"

Anyway, you're using the same logic in this race you did here:

People honestly think Jones has a chance? Come on, people, this is Alabama we're talking about. Moore's scandal isn't going to sink him, just ask President Hillary Clinton or Congressman Rob Quist how much these scandals really affect the opinions of voters. Moore would win even if he didn't deny the allegations and claimed he felt good about what he did. I'll guess a slightly narrower margin, but Moore's magic (R) will still easily save him.

Moore - 53%
Jones - 45%


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 10, 2019, 04:14:32 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on October 10, 2019, 04:15:55 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.
Not you specifically, but some other users I remember saying they wanted Colyer to win the primary to prevent the risk of Kobach winning, and when I pointed out Kobach would be easier to beat, they were like "lol no, Kobach is still going to win!"

Anyway, you're using the same logic in this race you did here:

People honestly think Jones has a chance? Come on, people, this is Alabama we're talking about. Moore's scandal isn't going to sink him, just ask President Hillary Clinton or Congressman Rob Quist how much these scandals really affect the opinions of voters. Moore would win even if he didn't deny the allegations and claimed he felt good about what he did. I'll guess a slightly narrower margin, but Moore's magic (R) will still easily save him.

Moore - 53%
Jones - 45%

Yes, I know you're very fond of that quote. I've admitted several times that I was wrong about that race, but as has been pointed out before...
 
1) Bevin isn't a pedophile (that we know of)
2) This isn't a special election


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 10, 2019, 04:17:17 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

+1

As for Alabama, let me know if you figure out Bevin is a pedophile and I'll be happy to change my rating.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Comrade Funk on October 10, 2019, 04:18:23 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 10, 2019, 04:19:43 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

+1

As for Alabama, let me know if you figure out Bevin is a pedophile and I'll be happy to change my rating.
You're moving the goalposts. Every time a Democrat wins in a red state, you create an excuse and say they won't win in a red state again. "Moore was a pedophile", "Manchin was an incumbent", "Kansas is a purple state", etc.

Also, Blackburn and Stitt had positive favorables in the campaign whereas Bevin, Moore, Kobach, Morrissey all had negative favorables.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 10, 2019, 04:23:54 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 10, 2019, 04:25:11 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

+1

As for Alabama, let me know if you figure out Bevin is a pedophile and I'll be happy to change my rating.
You're moving the goalposts. Every time a Democrat wins in a red state, you create an excuse and say they won't win in a red state again. "Moore was a pedophile", "Manchin was an incumbent", "Kansas is a purple state", etc.

I don't know why you're still using Kansas as an example when I had it as a toss up the entire election, lol.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 10, 2019, 04:25:20 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119
I just said the race wasn't Safe R, I still thought Republicans would win.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Senator YE on October 11, 2019, 11:08:42 am
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 11, 2019, 11:16:02 am
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 11, 2019, 04:13:05 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.

Yeah, rip Wokelahoma.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 11, 2019, 04:31:10 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.

Yeah, rip Wokelahoma.

Oklahoma stitt the bed and now they're up stitt's creek without a paddle.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 11, 2019, 04:39:00 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.


Sad but true. And we might see JBE tossed out despite his popularity for being a Democrat anyway.

It seems when it comes to governors races, Democrats need a set of really exceptional circumstances to win red states these days (KS, LA, WV).

Meanwhile all it takes for blue states to elect Republicans is the perception of the Dem gubernatorial candidates as lazy (Anthony Brown, Martha Coakley, Sue Minter)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 11, 2019, 05:12:19 pm
I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.


Sad but true. And we might see JBE tossed out despite his popularity for being a Democrat anyway.

It seems when it comes to governors races, Democrats need a set of really exceptional circumstances to win red states these days (KS, LA, WV).

Meanwhile all it takes for blue states to elect Republicans is the perception of the Dem gubernatorial candidates as lazy (Anthony Brown, Martha Coakley, Sue Minter)

2018 truly has convinced me of the greater partisanship of Republicans, as compared to Democrats. It still amazes me how Charlie Baker managed to garner 67% of the vote in Massachusetts, of all places, and Larry Hogan won by 12% in the "inflexible" state of Maryland. Yet South Dakota, which is about as Republican as Maryland is Democratic, couldn't even give the Democrat a win, in spite of them being a moderate "Blue Dog", almost. The same can be said for Tennessee and Oklahoma, which are also as Republican as Maryland and Massachusetts are Democratic.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 11, 2019, 07:29:29 pm
Trump will hold a rally in KY to try to bail out Bevin.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/11/matt-blevin-kentucky-governor-trump-pence-044735


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 11, 2019, 07:33:09 pm
Trump will hold a rally in KY to try to bail out Bevin.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/11/matt-blevin-kentucky-governor-trump-pence-044735

I'd say this is another nail in Beshear's coffin, but I'm not sure there's enough real estate on that coffin to fit another nail at this point.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 11, 2019, 07:45:43 pm
Trump will hold a rally in KY to try to bail out Bevin.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/11/matt-blevin-kentucky-governor-trump-pence-044735

RIP Beshear


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 11, 2019, 07:48:14 pm
There goes Elliott County


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on October 11, 2019, 08:53:39 pm
Kentucky is Likely R closer to Lean to Safe R


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on October 11, 2019, 09:23:50 pm

Beshear wouldn't have won it anyway.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on October 11, 2019, 10:04:37 pm
The ratings still has it a Tossup race, Cook ratings


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 11, 2019, 10:14:45 pm
The ratings still has it a Tossup race, Cook ratings

All hail Cook!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 11, 2019, 11:32:33 pm
Quote
But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committeeís previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 11, 2019, 11:44:29 pm
Quote
But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committeeís previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!

Kentucky voters are "coming home" to the Party, but they were always going to do that to begin with. Now, I can only wonder if Beshear will manage to keep his loss to within 5%. I wouldn't be surprised if Bevin ended up winning by a margin similar to Hawley or Braun, or even Stitt and Blackburn, when it's all over.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ltomlinson31 on October 12, 2019, 01:03:58 am
Quote
But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committeeís previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!



He also did say months before that Beshear had a 10-12% lead in polling early on, but it looks like it's vanished since. Very surprising to see a Democrat hold an early lead in a race in Kentucky only to see it disappear as the race goes on. Very unprecedented.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 12, 2019, 08:39:40 am
Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: #Solid4096 on October 12, 2019, 10:48:30 am
It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

Tbh the Jones people have an incentive to spin the results as a mandate for Doug Jones and not just a fluke caused by Moore's pedophilia accusations. The public polling also showed a sharp trend towards Jones as a result of the accusations and Moore never got back to the same lead he had beforehand. Without the accusations I think Moore wins by high single digits, which would still have been an embarrassing performance for a Republican in Alabama and a good performance by Jones.
This was not a public meeting and I was not working as a journalist at the time. This staffer was also no longer employed by Jones.

It's still something they'd want to believe and would make the Jones campaign look good. I remember seeing this argument in an interview with Vox and it doesn't seem plausible tbh. The evidence points strongly that this take is not accurate and the conventional wisdom actually gets this one right. You could argue about how much the pedophilia factor benefited Jones, but it's almost certain that this factor did help him, and likely that it helped him significantly.

The pedophilia factor definitely benefited Jones, though was likely not enough on its own. To get Jones to win, you have to add in Moores racism, his religious extremism, the Republicans trying to pass a deeply unpopular tax bill through Congress in the background, any of these factors being removed causes Moore to win.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on October 12, 2019, 12:29:33 pm
Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?

Proud to be a member of the elite 10%. :)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 12, 2019, 12:35:25 pm
Seeing Bevin win will truly be hilarious


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 12, 2019, 12:39:24 pm
This thread is a dumpster fire.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 12, 2019, 12:47:08 pm

No. This race unfolded exactly as Mr. IceSpear and Xingerui predicted it would unfold in the first few pages of this thread. People grilled them over it, but it still seems like they aren't getting the credit they deserve.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 12, 2019, 12:55:00 pm

Is that because most people are coming to a consensus you don't like?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 12, 2019, 12:59:47 pm

Is that because most people are coming to a consensus you don't like?

It seems like Politician thinks that Xingerui, IceSpear and me want Beshear to lose. I can't speak for them, but I definitely don't, and I'd be quite pleased if by some act of God Beshear won. But the reality is that this is Kentucky. We're at the point in this country that Bevin and Trump could probably hold a rally where they insult Kentuckians with incest jokes and missing teeth and Bevin would still win convincingly.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 12, 2019, 01:03:07 pm

Is that because most people are coming to a consensus you don't like?

It seems like Politician thinks that Xingerui, IceSpear and me want Beshear to lose. I can't speak for them, but I definitely don't, and I'd be quite pleased if by some act of God Beshear won. But the reality is that this is Kentucky. We're at the point in this country that Bevin and Trump could probably hold a rally where they insult Kentuckians with incest jokes and missing teeth and Bevin would still win convincingly.

I mean, I'm fairly sure none of you or me want Bevin to win. I despise Bevin and would love to see Beshear win. But as IceSpear says, when Tom Cotton or Jim Inhofe (people I and presumably he detest) wins nobody acts shocked or anything.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 12, 2019, 01:33:43 pm
No, it's because this thread has become nothing but circlejerking.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 12, 2019, 01:34:47 pm
No, it's because this thread has become nothing but circlejerking.
I'm sure you'd be fine with it if everyone was talking about how inevitable Beshear is.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 12, 2019, 01:46:01 pm
No, it's because this thread has become nothing but circlejerking.
I'm sure you'd be fine with it if everyone was talking about how inevitable Beshear is.
We have NOT SEEN A PUBLIC POLL of this race in 5 months.

Also, the only people on this joke thread are you, TrendsareReal, IceSpear, xingkerui masturbating.

Thank you for the horrific imagery.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 12, 2019, 01:47:03 pm
Count me in too, Beshear is going to get beat by high single digits.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 12, 2019, 05:18:52 pm
No, it's because this thread has become nothing but circlejerking.

Look at it this way: in a few weeks you'll either be able to laugh at and mock all our posts, or recognize that you should've been listening to our "circlejerking" all along. :)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 12, 2019, 05:19:47 pm
Quote
But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committeeís previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!



He also did say months before that Beshear had a 10-12% lead in polling early on, but it looks like it's vanished since. Very surprising to see a Democrat hold an early lead in a race in Kentucky only to see it disappear as the race goes on. Very unprecedented.

Yet McGrift can't even lead a year+ in advance. Sad!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 12, 2019, 10:09:29 pm
Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 12, 2019, 10:14:10 pm
Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

Well, it's different, but not in the sense the blue Kentucky crowd would like: KY is far more rural than LA.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on October 12, 2019, 10:17:08 pm
Beshear's numbers CRATERING among Kentucky's Acadian voters. devastating blow to his campaign


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on October 12, 2019, 10:17:47 pm
Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

Well, it's different, but not in the sense the blue Kentucky crowd would like: KY is far more rural than LA.

But what if Beshear releases an ad in which he shoots a TV? Then what? Then what? Then wahhatat?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 12, 2019, 10:20:02 pm
Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

Well, it's different, but not in the sense the blue Kentucky crowd would like: KY is far more rural than LA.

Hereís how rural Iowa returns to 2012 levels but Texas is still safe R too while weíre at it...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 12, 2019, 10:20:18 pm
Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

The same can be said for Jim Hood. I wouldn't be surprised if we are embarking upon a decades-long drought for Democrats in Kentucky, that will last well into this century.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 12, 2019, 10:20:43 pm
Beshear's numbers CRATERING among Kentucky's Acadian voters. devastating blow to his campaign

You'll be going down with the ship, huh? Well, I suppose that's an admirable quality.

And yeah, because Dems have faired so much better in Appalachia as opposed to Acadiana, lol.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 12, 2019, 10:22:59 pm
Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

The same can be said for Jim Hood. I wouldn't be surprised if we are embarking upon a decades-long drought for Democrats in Kentucky, that will last well into this century.

At least jim Hood has a good cushion of black folks and some suburban areas of the state to fall back on so he could get close. Beshear does not really have anything goin for him outside of Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 12, 2019, 10:31:47 pm
Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

The same can be said for Jim Hood. I wouldn't be surprised if we are embarking upon a decades-long drought for Democrats in Kentucky, that will last well into this century.

At least jim Hood has a good cushion of black folks and some suburban areas of the state to fall back on so he could get close. Beshear does not really have anything goin for him outside of Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort

Hood's chances are definitely better than Beshear's, but it's hard to see him actually winning at this point. And Hood is going to collapse in the northeastern foothills, compared to his prior races. It is undeniable that he will be hit in full force by the same trends of polarization as well.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on October 12, 2019, 10:32:56 pm
We haven't seen a poll from this race; lately, but if Hood doesn't get 50%; its over.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 12, 2019, 10:34:31 pm
Anyone still want to pretend like Beshear has a chance after tonight? Or is rural KY somehow a lot different from rural LA?

The same can be said for Jim Hood. I wouldn't be surprised if we are embarking upon a decades-long drought for Democrats in Kentucky, that will last well into this century.

At least jim Hood has a good cushion of black folks and some suburban areas of the state to fall back on so he could get close. Beshear does not really have anything goin for him outside of Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort

Hood's chances are definitely better than Beshear's, but it's hard to see him actually winning at this point. And Hood is going to collapse in the northeastern foothills, compared to his prior races. It is undeniable that he will be hit in full force by the same trends of polarization as well.

The funny thing is that Mississippi seems to be flying so under the radar compared to KY and La so much that Trump might not even hold a rally there. Which may just be the only opening Hood has


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on October 12, 2019, 10:49:28 pm
Yeah, if a popular incumbent Democrat who's pro-life might lose in Louisiana, Beshear isn't coming close to winning. My prediction of 54-43 might even be too generous to him.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 12, 2019, 11:00:27 pm
Yeah, if a popular incumbent Democrat who's pro-life might lose in Louisiana, Beshear isn't coming close to winning. My prediction of 54-43 might even be too generous to him.

Even though the eventual victor is a foregone conclusion, this race will still be interesting to watch to see the eventual margin + the inevitably amazing swing map.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Comrade Funk on October 12, 2019, 11:05:26 pm
()

Beshear losing will dissuade Matt Jones or Rocky Adkins from running, leaving Amy McGrath as the only candidate for Senate. The only consolation will be Schumer's handpicked candidate getting BTFO in embarrassing fashion. Schumer picks his candidates like a weekend MSNBC host who believes the KY Democratic Party want to run on a #resistance platform.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 13, 2019, 11:40:33 am
Yeah Beshear is definitely losing. How much will depend on what polls we get if any .


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Rep. Gracile on October 13, 2019, 11:44:12 am
()

Beshear losing will dissuade Matt Jones or Rocky Adkins from running, leaving Amy McGrath as the only candidate for Senate. The only consolation will be Schumer's handpicked candidate getting BTFO in embarrassing fashion. Schumer picks his candidates like a weekend MSNBC host who believes the KY Democratic Party want to run on a #resistance platform.

It's not like Jones or Adkins would have much of a chance against McConnell anyway.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Comrade Funk on October 13, 2019, 11:55:19 am
()

Beshear losing will dissuade Matt Jones or Rocky Adkins from running, leaving Amy McGrath as the only candidate for Senate. The only consolation will be Schumer's handpicked candidate getting BTFO in embarrassing fashion. Schumer picks his candidates like a weekend MSNBC host who believes the KY Democratic Party want to run on a #resistance platform.

It's not like Jones or Adkins would have much of a chance against McConnell anyway.
They would have kept margins far closer to like 15 points. McGrath's campaign has shown her to be a fraud. She'll lose by 35.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 13, 2019, 12:47:32 pm
Yeah, if a popular incumbent Democrat who's pro-life might lose in Louisiana, Beshear isn't coming close to winning. My prediction of 54-43 might even be too generous to him.

I could sort of see a 45D/44R/8L outcome here, but that's the only way Beshear can possibly win.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: jimmie on October 13, 2019, 01:43:25 pm
So I am not very familiar with Kentucky political geography. If Beashar or Stumbo win where in the state would they pick up the votes?

Trends are so real that Bevin probably carries Elliot County even if he lose statewide.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on October 13, 2019, 02:11:37 pm
Itís worth noting that 49% of Kentucky residents are white evangelical Christians according to 2014 Pew data.


Thatís a higher percentage than in Oklahoma, Mississippi, and even Arkansas. Beshear is gonna need every single swing voter imaginable to overcome this Vanilla ISIS coalition.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on October 13, 2019, 02:26:39 pm
Yeah Beshear is definitely losing. How much will depend on what polls we get if any .

Why would his margin of defeat depend on whether or not a poll is published ???


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 13, 2019, 02:29:44 pm
So I am not very familiar with Kentucky political geography. If Beashar or Stumbo win where in the state would they pick up the votes?

Trends are so real that Bevin probably carries Elliot County even if he lose statewide.

We're talking in the academic sense, right? Like the "post a ward map of a Republican win in DC" sense, right?

In that case, Jalawest2 posted a decent map in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=308427.0


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 13, 2019, 03:14:00 pm
Yeah Beshear is definitely losing. How much will depend on what polls we get if any .

Why would his margin of defeat depend on whether or not a poll is published ???
Polls in KY are heavily dem skewed. It looked to be a close dem win in 2015 polling and yet Conway lost by 9


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 13, 2019, 03:28:50 pm
I will say that getting a good, public, quality, poll this close to the GE would help clean up this thread. The results would either confirm that the past month's circlejerking was necessary, or it will show that (un)popularity can override partisanship even in one of the trumpiest states.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Rep. Gracile on October 13, 2019, 03:40:07 pm
I will say that getting a good, public, quality, poll this close to the GE would help clean up this thread. The results would either confirm that the past month's circlejerking was necessary, or it will show that (un)popularity can override partisanship even in one of the trumpiest states.

Given Kentucky's polling history (consistently skewing Democratic), I doubt even a high-quality poll would be very instructive. And again, there are factors aside from polling that would lead people to logically peg this race as being slightly in Bevin's favor.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lucas Whitefur on October 13, 2019, 03:50:51 pm
I think it'll be 56-41 Bevin at this point. Kentucky is even quite a bit redder than Louisiana.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 14, 2019, 12:07:34 am
I think it'll be 56-41 Bevin at this point. Kentucky is even quite a bit redder than Louisiana.

Iím starting to think replicating Jim Grayís margin of defeat might be one of Beshearís best case scenarios. Just doing a quick Google search of the news in this race yields the top topics in this race: abortion, Trump and impeachment. Yikes. None of those are issues that Beshear should want the race to be centered on


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on October 14, 2019, 08:52:07 am
Mine will be 49-44 Bevin


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2019, 11:16:10 pm
It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 15, 2019, 12:38:39 am
It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

I think they'll probably all wait until the last two weeks, like how we got a large number of polls in the final days running up to the Jungle primary in Louisiana.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on October 15, 2019, 05:42:06 pm
Elliott county will vote for Beshear. There is not a doubt in my mind


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 15, 2019, 06:24:26 pm
Elliott county will vote for Beshear. There is not a doubt in my mind

Yes, there are  too many old dems in this county to not back Beshear when he will get 40%+ statewide. However, a good numbers of Elliot's neighbors that backed him last time won't this time, and those  counties he does carry in Appalachia will be with modest margins. Beshears path unsurprisingly, is though the minor urban areas across the state and the suburbs of Louisville and Cincinnati - along with Louisville, Lexington, and Frankfort of course.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: darklordoftech on October 16, 2019, 01:36:28 am
Itís worth noting that 49% of Kentucky residents are white evangelical Christians according to 2014 Pew data.


Yet Bill Clinton won it twice.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2019, 09:17:21 am
It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

There it is:

https://www.scribd.com/document/430472409/Mason-Dixon-Kentucky-Poll


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 16, 2019, 10:54:49 am
It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

There it is:

https://www.scribd.com/document/430472409/Mason-Dixon-Kentucky-Poll

Hey look, like I said, a public poll with confirm political opinions on this race. If Bevin's approval is actually treading water then that's the ball game.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 16, 2019, 11:55:32 am
i wonder if credit will be given to Xingerui and IceSpear


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 16, 2019, 12:21:21 pm
i wonder if credit will be given to Xingerui and IceSpear

Well, there's two ways you can look at this,and in general view/rate electoral contests. The first view is that you rate the race with the information available today, and that rating changes week by week. The second view is that you rate how you assume the contest will be the day of the election, and that rating sticks for near the entire campaign. It's just a difference of viewpoint. The two groups may and often end up at the same place.

The problem is when the latter groups insults the former or claims superiority when the race does end up as the expected, or when the latter ends up way off and the former insults the latter's stupidity.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 16, 2019, 12:28:19 pm
i wonder if credit will be given to Xingerui and IceSpear

Honestly, I don't view it as particularly impressive to correctly predict a Republican will win in f'ing Kentucky, I just view it as stating the obvious. But this is the Atlas Forum, so...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 17, 2019, 11:47:32 am
Morning consult is out with their Q3 approvals and they find Bevin underwater with 34%-53% Approve/Disapprove. Certainly different from Mason-Dixon. Marginal change from Q2 which had 32-56.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 21, 2019, 04:48:57 pm
William Woods, who finished a distant third in the GOP primary, has endorsed Beshear. (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/466773-kentucky-gop-governor-candidate-who-lost-in-primary-endorsing-democratic)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on October 21, 2019, 04:51:22 pm
After a heartthrobbing loss in NC-9, Dems should have a Great election night this Nov.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Pericles on October 21, 2019, 10:31:09 pm
After a heartthrobbing loss in NC-9, Dems should have a Great election night this Nov.

In Virginia.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 22, 2019, 08:49:43 am
This is an interesting column: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/joseph-gerth/2019/10/21/kentucky-governors-race-poll-results-shows-gop-making-gains/4024226002/. The author argues that Kentucky's gubernatorial election follows a "historical trend" of Democrats enjoying poll leads at the beginning, only to collapse during the final stages of the campaign.

Again, I truly wonder if Bevin will manage to score a double-digit win next month.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 22, 2019, 09:02:04 am
#KentuckyDemsInDisarray


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 22, 2019, 08:45:19 pm
Quote
In this yearís governorís race, Bevin and his surrogates have largely abandoned economic issues in the last weeks of the campaign and have focused almost exclusively on social issues like abortion and trying to instill fear in voters with pictures of scary Latino gang members.

And it just might be working.

But Atlas told me that Democrats lose because they spend too much time on SJW identity politix and not enough time on "kitchen table issues" and "bread and butter issues!" That's why they lose the "WWC" and Appalachia!

Atlas #populists <3 just got #triggered


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on October 22, 2019, 09:07:32 pm
Quote
In this yearís governorís race, Bevin and his surrogates have largely abandoned economic issues in the last weeks of the campaign and have focused almost exclusively on social issues like abortion and trying to instill fear in voters with pictures of scary Latino gang members.

And it just might be working.

But Atlas told me that Democrats lose because they spend too much time on SJW identity politix and not enough time on "kitchen table issues" and "bread and butter issues!" That's why they lose the "WWC" and Appalachia!

Atlas #populists <3 just got #triggered

Shhhh... Don't ruin the talking point that we're ivory tower elitists for having the audacity to suggest that xenophobia/race has anything to do with rural voters in places like Kentucky voting Republican. ;)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on October 25, 2019, 07:58:44 pm
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55d790f5e4b04ec82cf2bff1/t/5db1ced790cb206ef9b593d4/1571933911898/Results+Release+Final+Kentucky+October+2019.pdf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 25, 2019, 11:29:50 pm
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55d790f5e4b04ec82cf2bff1/t/5db1ced790cb206ef9b593d4/1571933911898/Results+Release+Final+Kentucky+October+2019.pdf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

Even if Beshear wins (not impossible), this will probably be the worst Kentucky poll in a long time.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 26, 2019, 11:40:42 am
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55d790f5e4b04ec82cf2bff1/t/5db1ced790cb206ef9b593d4/1571933911898/Results+Release+Final+Kentucky+October+2019.pdf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

Even if Beshear wins (not impossible), this will probably be the worst Kentucky poll in a long time.

If Beshear does manage to win (LOL), this poll would be slightly more accurate than that McGrath +16 poll


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Biden on October 26, 2019, 11:42:26 am
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55d790f5e4b04ec82cf2bff1/t/5db1ced790cb206ef9b593d4/1571933911898/Results+Release+Final+Kentucky+October+2019.pdf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

Even if Beshear wins (not impossible), this will probably be the worst Kentucky poll in a long time.

If Beshear does manage to win (LOL), this poll would be slightly more accurate than that McGrath +16 poll
It's also an October poll, even though Beshear should be collapsing.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on October 26, 2019, 04:31:16 pm
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55d790f5e4b04ec82cf2bff1/t/5db1ced790cb206ef9b593d4/1571933911898/Results+Release+Final+Kentucky+October+2019.pdf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

Even if Beshear wins (not impossible), this will probably be the worst Kentucky poll in a long time.

If Beshear does manage to win (LOL), this poll would be slightly more accurate than that McGrath +16 poll
It's also an October poll, even though Beshear should be collapsing.

Just like Targoz told us Bredesen wasn't collapsing in November, right? :)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Teflon Joe on October 26, 2019, 05:27:31 pm
If Beshear can bring in Steve Bullock, Sherrod Brown and Big Don to campaign in the East Kentucky coalfields, KY will go back to it's roots and become Safe D, due to #POPULISM.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on October 26, 2019, 10:05:55 pm
The state of polling in the US is an utter mess rn


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Pericles on October 26, 2019, 11:05:56 pm
The state of polling in the US is an utter mess rn

Eh polls overall are pretty good and they mostly got the midterms right, 2016 is framed as a big miss but was a pretty normal miss and indeed nationally the polls were more accurate than in 2012.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Biden/Abrams Voter on October 26, 2019, 11:52:46 pm
What I want to know is: where is Linda Belcher? She'd easily sew this entire race up if she just campaigned on behalf of Beshear!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Skunk on October 27, 2019, 12:28:08 am
What I want to know is: where is Linda Belcher? She'd easily sew this entire race up if she just campaigned on behalf of Beshear!
()


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: From Prussia With Love on October 27, 2019, 08:56:34 am
What I want to know is: where is Linda Belcher? She'd easily sew this entire race up if she just campaigned on behalf of Beshear!

Last seen losing by about 19% in the 2018 GE :P 

Anyway, I *generally* lean more towards the ďpredictions should reflect the unexaggerated likelihood of an outcome based on where things stand todayĒ school of thought about electoral predictions and thus, am often going to be more reluctant to call races like 2019 MS Governor or the 2018 NV Governorís race ďSafeĒ (as opposed to ďLikely RĒ and ďLean D,Ē respectively) even when Iím pretty confident from the start how itíll turn out.  That said, I did think Beshear would beat the odds and win until pretty recently and while I still think heíll do significantly better than Conway (who got destroyed IIRC), it looks like heíll still probably lose by like 51%-46%-3%.  Congrats, IceSpear :P

I think KY AG is probably gonna be about a 10-16% win for the Republican with the rest of the statewide downballot races in KY, MS, and LA being 20-30 point blowouts.  Hood was never gonna win given that the MS House decides the race if no one wins a majority, but I think he probably loses by 7-8% (6-7% if thereís a Libertarian) with Reeves getting a majority of 53/54%.  I still think Edwards eeks out a victory, but that one will come down to the wire.  I definitely think some Abraham supporters are gonna sit it out, but IDK if thatíll be enough.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DINGO Joe on October 27, 2019, 04:57:27 pm
Bevin is such an incapable person that he'll need every iota of Trumptardation of the Kentucky electorate to win

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-govs-race-stirs-clash-211243436.html


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 28, 2019, 04:30:28 pm
Bevin is such an incapable person that he'll need every iota of Trumptardation of the Kentucky electorate to win

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-govs-race-stirs-clash-211243436.html

Sadly for the Republicans, Bevin (who is down by 19%) is the best hope they have just about anywhere. Is the national or local GOP really doing any better?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 28, 2019, 07:16:31 pm
Bevin is such an incapable person that he'll need every iota of Trumptardation of the Kentucky electorate to win

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-govs-race-stirs-clash-211243436.html

Sadly for the Republicans, Bevin (who is down by 19%) is the best hope they have just about anywhere. Is the national or local GOP really doing any better?

This is not 2007 or 2011 anymore. If you think Bevin going to lose by double digits, then I have a used car to sell you.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 28, 2019, 07:17:26 pm

Yes it is.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 28, 2019, 07:34:39 pm

No, it is not. The younger Beshear, if he wins (which he won't), would win by a much smaller margin than his father ever did. The good ol'boys in Elliott, or Knott, or Rowan, or Breathitt County "ain't voting for no Muslim-embracing, Communist-loving, open borders Demoncrats no more." Polarization has greatly damaged the Democratic electoral prospects in Appalachia, to a point from which they may not recover for the foreseeable future. Every other poll I've seen of this race shows a dead heat, and Bevin is starting to pull ahead.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 28, 2019, 07:35:42 pm

Yes it is.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on October 28, 2019, 07:48:30 pm
[obnoxiously long link deleted]

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

don't post like this you sociopath, there's a hyperlink button for this reason


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Mondale on October 29, 2019, 12:57:54 am
I actually just came back from spending a week in Kentucky and most of the voters there told me they are voting  for Bevin due to his support of Trump whose policy of economic nationalism is bringing the jobs back.

They then got into their Japanese automobile and drove to their home built by illegal Hondurans with wood from Canada and drywall from China.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on October 29, 2019, 11:32:15 am
[obnoxiously long link deleted]

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

don't post like this you sociopath, there's a hyperlink button for this reason

Calm your tits


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Skye on October 29, 2019, 01:44:29 pm
Do you guys think we'll get another poll? The election is in *checks notes* one week and the only recent polls we have show 1. a tie, and b. a 19-point blowout. I don't buy that Bevin is Safe and the lack of polls certainly don't help to make a confident prediction.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Sen. Mark Meadows on October 29, 2019, 02:47:46 pm
Crazy to think just 1 week left tbh


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 29, 2019, 02:58:50 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 29, 2019, 05:08:59 pm


Bevin knows his state more than most of the posters here. I've said previously that he might win by low double digits. 6-10 points is definitely a likely outcome at this point.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 29, 2019, 09:00:38 pm
Keep in mind heís probably expectation setting. Wouldnít at all be surprised to see it double digits. Iím expecting something like 54-41 like the 2014 Senate race


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 30, 2019, 07:58:35 am
It's sad that Bevin can be so bad and so many horrible things yet many people can't see besides Trump to vote him out. It speaks to the education level and intelligence level of a lot of people tbh.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 30, 2019, 08:52:19 am
It's sad that Bevin can be so bad and so many horrible things yet many people can't see besides Trump to vote him out. It speaks to the education level and intelligence level of a lot of people tbh.

Kentucky does have some lousy schools, that's for certain.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 30, 2019, 07:26:01 pm
It's sad that Bevin can be so bad and so many horrible things yet many people can't see besides Trump to vote him out. It speaks to the education level and intelligence level of a lot of people tbh.

Itíd be sad if the voters were forced to choose bad leaders like Bevin. But they arenít. So I have no pity


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 30, 2019, 07:57:53 pm

Thank God.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: #Solid4096 on November 01, 2019, 07:30:47 pm

No, it is not. The younger Beshear, if he wins (which he won't), would win by a much smaller margin than his father ever did. The good ol'boys in Elliott, or Knott, or Rowan, or Breathitt County "ain't voting for no Muslim-embracing, Communist-loving, open borders Demoncrats no more." Polarization has greatly damaged the Democratic electoral prospects in Appalachia, to a point from which they may not recover for the foreseeable future. Every other poll I've seen of this race shows a dead heat, and Bevin is starting to pull ahead.

Elliott and Rowan County have a good chance of voting for Beshear. Infact, they both will unless its a Bevin blowout statewide, which admittedly cannot be ruled out.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 02, 2019, 01:11:27 am
A few maps by Brune, who calculated the county level benchmarks for Beshear (I donít agree with all of it).

What Beshear needs to do to tie the race statewide:

()

()

()


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on November 02, 2019, 01:55:24 am
^Is "high polarization" your favorite one? ;)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 02, 2019, 08:09:52 am
You technically forgot one of the models:



Something near High-polarization though is the likeliest path, perhaps with bit more leeway.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Tender Branson on November 02, 2019, 11:06:41 pm
RRH will not release their KY poll, because they got Ąridiculous dataď back from their pollster:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/01/weekend-open-thread-for-november-1-3-2019/

This could either mean that pollsters have no clue whatís going on there, or that Beshear was indeed leading by 10%+ in their data and they decided this Ącannot be trueď ...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on November 02, 2019, 11:50:55 pm
given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 03, 2019, 09:18:33 am
This could either mean that pollsters have no clue whatís going on there, or that Beshear was indeed leading by 10%+ in their data and they decided this Ącannot be trueď ...

Gee, let me guess.

After all, isn't RRH a right-wing pollster? If they had Bevin up at all, they'd release it.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 03, 2019, 10:29:09 am
This could either mean that pollsters have no clue whatís going on there, or that Beshear was indeed leading by 10%+ in their data and they decided this Ącannot be trueď ...

Gee, let me guess.

After all, isn't RRH a right-wing pollster? If they had Bevin up at all, they'd release it.

Kentucky polls are notoriously unreliable, and in recent years, have been skewed in favor of the Democrats.

given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

RRH was actually pretty accurate in predicting the outcome of those two special elections.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 03, 2019, 10:31:19 am
Kentucky polls are notoriously unreliable

Maybe that's because Kentucky elections are notoriously unreliable.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 03, 2019, 10:33:18 am
Kentucky polls are notoriously unreliable

Maybe that's because Kentucky elections are notoriously unreliable.

You ignored the last part of my sentence: they have been skewed in favor of the Democrats. The last gubernatorial race there in 2015 is a prime example of this, with Bevin defeating Conway by a margin much wider than had been expected in the polls. At any rate though, you're convinced at this point that Beshear will win in a double-digit landslide, so what else can I say?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 03, 2019, 10:35:55 am
You ignored the last part of my sentence: they have been skewed in favor of the Democrats.

Reality is skewed in favor of the Democrats.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 03, 2019, 10:38:18 am
You ignored the last part of my sentence: they have been skewed in favor of the Democrats.

Reality is skewed in favor of the Democrats.

Not really. If it were, Clinton would have won in 2016.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on November 03, 2019, 10:39:24 am
given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

RRH was actually pretty accurate in predicting the outcome of those two special elections.
No. Their ludicrous junk had Bishop only losing black voters by 4% (he didn't do significantly better than generic R in black-majority precincts), losing 18-29 voters by 4, and winning Cumberland County by 14% (he won by 0.18%). They balanced this by having McCready only losing by 9% in Union County (he lost by 21%) and only losing white voters by 3%. The fact that these bizarre samples happened to cancel each other out does not mean RRH is a good pollster or can be trusted to deliver accurate results under any circumstances.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 03, 2019, 10:44:58 am
given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

RRH was actually pretty accurate in predicting the outcome of those two special elections.
No. Their ludicrous junk had Bishop only losing black voters by 4% (he didn't do significantly better than generic R in black-majority precincts), losing 18-29 voters by 4, and winning Cumberland County by 14% (he won by 0.18%). They balanced this by having McCready only losing by 9% in Union County (he lost by 21%) and only losing white voters by 3%. The fact that these bizarre samples happened to cancel each other out does not mean RRH is a good pollster or can be trusted to deliver accurate results under any circumstances.

I'll agree that the crosstabs were terrible, but notice that I stated they were accurate in predicting the outcome of those races. They had Bishop up narrowly over McCready, and Murphy leading Thomas by double digits. And these were the overall results in the races. RRH themselves, moreover, are now trying to find a new and more accurate poll vendor, and they recognize the issues.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on November 03, 2019, 02:45:04 pm
Keep fighting the good fight Calthrina, you're one of the most accurate pundits on this site at this point.

Anyway because of the fact that there hasn't been any good poll since Mason-Dixon's 46%-46%, I stand by my prediction that Beshear is limited to 47%, maybe 48% at best. Ergo it'll take a large third party siphon from Bevin for Beshear to win (e.g. something like Beshear 48.2% Bevin 48.1% Libertarian 3.7%).



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on November 03, 2019, 04:38:05 pm
No. Their ludicrous junk had Bishop only losing black voters by 4% (he didn't do significantly better than generic R in black-majority precincts), losing 18-29 voters by 4, and winning Cumberland County by 14% (he won by 0.18%). They balanced this by having McCready only losing by 9% in Union County (he lost by 21%) and only losing white voters by 3%. The fact that these bizarre samples happened to cancel each other out does not mean RRH is a good pollster or can be trusted to deliver accurate results under any circumstances.

I'll agree that the crosstabs were terrible, but notice that I stated they were accurate in predicting the outcome of those races. They had Bishop up narrowly over McCready, and Murphy leading Thomas by double digits. And these were the overall results in the races. RRH themselves, moreover, are now trying to find a new and more accurate poll vendor, and they recognize the issues.
If you had a random number generator that happened to generate a number close to the outcome, would you describe the generator as "accurate"? Or would the correct term be "lucky"?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 03, 2019, 06:41:43 pm
What'll be more interesting at this point is whether the race gets called for Bevin by 10 PM ET or not. If it doesn't, I'd be very optimistic about Beshear actually pulling through.

I believe the polls close at 6 [which is 5 by my clock], and I think it was around 9 PM in 2008 when Lunsford officially lost. Pretty sure it was 9 when McGrath was out too last year. The midpoint the should be around 7:30 PM

However, I'm logging it to 10 PM because that is the general midpoint of the big kahunas, and still very useful with close races. [Ex: LA-GOV Jungle 2019, Edwards settled into 46%, but Abraham was still in second place at the number Rispone ultimately took]


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Epaminondas on November 03, 2019, 09:01:29 pm
However, I'm logging it to 10 PM because that is the general midpoint of the big kahunas, and still very useful with close races. [Ex: LA-GOV Jungle 2019, Edwards settled into 46%, but Abraham was still in second place at the number Rispone ultimately took]

Beshear won in 2015 by 0.2%, when was that called?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 03, 2019, 09:58:27 pm
Also remember that Kentucky crosses time zones. So while polls close at 6pm in both halves, one closes at 6pm est and one at 7.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TML on November 04, 2019, 12:06:57 am
Any word on whether or not exit polling will be conducted for this race?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 04, 2019, 08:54:56 am
This is interesting, McConnell didn't want Trump to get invovled in Kentucky because he didn't want a potential loss to harm his reputation.



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on November 04, 2019, 09:47:07 am
This is interesting, McConnell didn't want Trump to get invovled in Kentucky because he didn't want a potential loss to harm his reputation.



MoscowMitch is obviously delusional if he thinks there is any way Bevin could lose. IceSpear need to tell McConell straight about Bevin victory being about as sure as the sun raising in the morning.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: From Prussia With Love on November 04, 2019, 11:10:22 am
What'll be more interesting at this point is whether the race gets called for Bevin by 10 PM ET or not. If it doesn't, I'd be very optimistic about Beshear actually pulling through.

I believe the polls close at 6 [which is 5 by my clock], and I think it was around 9 PM in 2008 when Lunsford officially lost. Pretty sure it was 9 when McGrath was out too last year. The midpoint the should be around 7:30 PM

However, I'm logging it to 10 PM because that is the general midpoint of the big kahunas, and still very useful with close races. [Ex: LA-GOV Jungle 2019, Edwards settled into 46%, but Abraham was still in second place at the number Rispone ultimately took]

Honestly, I'm gonna be sadder about Greg Stumbo losing than Beshear.  I've always liked him in a "yeah, he's an a**hole, but he's our a**hole and a tough one at that" sort of way.  I'm old enough to remember his time as KY AG when he exposed the corruption scandals that brought down Ernie Fletcher (among others).  Plus, he seemed to be a real populist back when the word actually meant something (i.e. before Palin and later CNBC right-wingers turned it into a buzzword for corporatist race-baiters).


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 04, 2019, 12:53:24 pm
Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on November 04, 2019, 01:33:45 pm
Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll Iíve seen in a long time lol


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 04, 2019, 01:34:56 pm
Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll Iíve seen in a long time lol

Why are you assuming itís a bad poll? Bevin is least poplar gov in America. The demographics of the poll look accurate


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 04, 2019, 01:36:16 pm
Why are you assuming itís a bad poll?

Because this board loves Bevin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Skunk on November 04, 2019, 01:43:37 pm
No, we don't. Bevin is the worst governor in the country. It's just that Republicans win elections in Kentucky.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on November 04, 2019, 01:46:57 pm
No, we don't. Bevin is the worst governor in the country. It's just that Republicans win elections in Kentucky.

Agreed. While I legitimately believe Beshear has a shot at this tomorrow, there is a 0% chance he wins by anywhere near the 19 points that poll has him winning by


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 04, 2019, 01:58:59 pm
Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll Iíve seen in a long time lol

Why are you assuming itís a bad poll? Bevin is least poplar gov in America. The demographics of the poll look accurate

It might not be wrong, but it probbaly is wrong. I just wish we got some more data here.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2019, 03:04:38 pm
Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll Iíve seen in a long time lol

Why are you assuming itís a bad poll? Bevin is least poplar gov in America. The demographics of the poll look accurate

Take a deeper look into the crosstabs and you'll realize why.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2019, 07:55:24 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 04, 2019, 10:02:47 pm

It is not that this board "loves Bevin", it is that most on here realize that he is the favorite in this race, in spite of what we would wish to be true otherwise.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 05, 2019, 01:09:40 am


OMG I am literally dying XD


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 05, 2019, 02:27:22 am


How ironic and how true. Trump's rally has whipped his supporters into a frenzy. It was the final nail in Beshear's coffin, adding to the other nails that have already been hammered firmly into it. Beshear will soon be set ablaze, and will disappear into the abyss, never to emerge again into public office in his home state.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 05, 2019, 09:31:02 am
I still think Bevin wins, but I have a gut feeling that this will be closer than most people here expect, especially with how unpredictable turnout patterns are in an off-year election and given that Bevin's unpopularity (and the Beshear name, to a certain extent) is exactly the kind of thing which would mitigate the Republican federal trend in a gubernatorial race. Iím sticking with Bevin +5-6, but I wouldnít be surprised if this one keeps us up late into the night. Certainly not buying that weíll see a KY-SEN 2014/OK-GOV 2018 redux here.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 09:31:47 am
Calling a Bevin +7 win tonight, an abysmal showing for his campaign.

When someone get turnout numbers, or some kind of last minute indicators please post them her.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Xing on November 05, 2019, 10:40:05 am
Just in case anyone actually thinks that I "love" Bevin, I don't. I can assure you that no other left-wing poster predicting a big win for Bevin does. I would be thrilled to be completely wrong about this race, and I'd happily eat some crow-filled humble pie with a side of KFC if Beshear were to somehow win. However, I'll believe Kentucky electing a Democrat in 2019 when I see it.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 05, 2019, 10:42:31 am
Just in case anyone actually thinks that I "love" Bevin, I don't. I can assure you that no other left-wing poster predicting a big win for Bevin does. I would be thrilled to be completely wrong about this race, and I'd happily eat some crow-filled humble pie with a side of KFC if Beshear were to somehow win. However, I'll believe Kentucky electing a Democrat in 2019 when I see it.

I don't think people quite grasp just how hated Bevin is.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: VPH on November 05, 2019, 10:49:33 am
We'll see whether polarization or deep disapproval of Matt Bevin wins out today. I'm slightly hopeful because of recent Dem gains downballot in Eastern KY, but I also am prepared for a Beshear loss.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Acting Governor R2D2 (Voting for the Not Fascist) on November 05, 2019, 10:53:06 am
Just in case anyone actually thinks that I "love" Bevin, I don't. I can assure you that no other left-wing poster predicting a big win for Bevin does. I would be thrilled to be completely wrong about this race, and I'd happily eat some crow-filled humble pie with a side of KFC if Beshear were to somehow win. However, I'll believe Kentucky electing a Democrat in 2019 when I see it.

I don't think people quite grasp just how hated Bevin is.

Yeah, but Republicans, especially Kentucky Republicans, would vote for Hitler (R) over Jesus (D)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Pollster on November 05, 2019, 01:51:33 pm
Bevin not exactly exuding confidence.



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Skunk on November 05, 2019, 01:56:01 pm
Bevin not exactly exuding confidence.


Is he doing ok?



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2019, 01:57:14 pm
Itís raining in Louisville.

Beshear doomed !


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 05, 2019, 01:58:01 pm
Reminder, CD's 1 and 2 don't close till 7pm ET in KY, and if Beshear cannot lead by at least low to mid singles in the combined 3,4,5, and 6 CD vote, he's just 120% toast.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 01:58:42 pm


Report of heavy turnout in Shelbyville precinct 102, which is heavily Democratic in statewide contests. Conway won it 335 to 238 (54-38) in 2015. Jim Gray also won it over Rand Paul in 2016.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2019, 02:01:38 pm
How can turnout be Ąheavyď there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2019, 02:05:21 pm
How can turnout be Ąheavyď there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

Because they're comparing it to the previous gubernatorial election?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2019, 02:08:04 pm
How can turnout be Ąheavyď there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

Because they're comparing it to the previous gubernatorial election?

That was the 2015 election ...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2019, 02:16:35 pm
How can turnout be Ąheavyď there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

Because they're comparing it to the previous gubernatorial election?

That was the 2015 election ...

Re-read the tweet. 200 votes today at 1 PM vs 40 at that time in 2015.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2019, 02:19:08 pm
How can turnout be Ąheavyď there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

Because they're comparing it to the previous gubernatorial election?

That was the 2015 election ...

Re-read the tweet. 200 votes today at 1 PM vs 40 at that time in 2015.

I know.

But it could mean that people are just voting earlier in the day this time and fewer in the afternoon.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: AOC Stan on November 05, 2019, 02:20:36 pm
How can turnout be Ąheavyď there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

Because they're comparing it to the previous gubernatorial election?

That was the 2015 election ...

Re-read the tweet. 200 votes today at 1 PM vs 40 at that time in 2015.

I know.

But it could mean that people are just voting earlier in the day this time and fewer in the afternoon.
nah turnout is always higher the later in the day you get in the USA


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2019, 02:23:47 pm
How can turnout be Ąheavyď there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

Because they're comparing it to the previous gubernatorial election?

That was the 2015 election ...

Re-read the tweet. 200 votes today at 1 PM vs 40 at that time in 2015.

I know.

But it could mean that people are just voting earlier in the day this time and fewer in the afternoon.
nah turnout is always higher the later in the day you get in the USA

Maybe not this time, because a lot have voted until 1pm already ...

Would be good though if higher turnout happens, because the US really sucks balls with itís 30% turnouts ...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 02:37:47 pm
Voting surges in the afternoon as people get off work/leave early to go vote. This is how it goes in ever election, with heavy voting between like 3 and 6 pm.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2019, 02:38:16 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 05, 2019, 02:44:42 pm


If that's true, Beshear might as well start measuring the drapes in the Governor's Mansion.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 02:46:20 pm
Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isnít high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 05, 2019, 02:47:10 pm
A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

It doesn't. Turnout was low last time, and they won.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2019, 02:48:11 pm


If that's true, Beshear might as well start measuring the drapes in the Governor's Mansion.

But you don't know what turnout is in the rest of the state.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Teflon Joe on November 05, 2019, 02:56:23 pm
Itís raining in Louisville.

Beshear doomed !

Rain in NOLO!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 05, 2019, 02:58:26 pm


If that's true, Beshear might as well start measuring the drapes in the Governor's Mansion.

Drapes are not populist, shame on you.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2019, 02:58:51 pm
Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isnít high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

Believe this at your own will.











Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 02:59:39 pm


This precinct was extremely close in 2015, Bevin 287 to 260, winning with under 50% of the vote.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 05, 2019, 03:06:42 pm
Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isnít high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

Believe this at your own will.










How would these people know the exact results of absentee votes in all these counties before polls close? For that matter it is highly suspect that the libertarian has gotten 0% from these votes


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Cinemark on November 05, 2019, 03:06:58 pm
Not getting my hopes up, but even super unpopular incumbents can loose in deeply partisan states.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2019, 03:09:51 pm
Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isnít high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

Believe this at your own will.










How would these people know the exact results of absentee votes in all these counties before polls close? For that matter it is highly suspect that the libertarian has gotten 0% from these votes

No idea, should note that it appears the kypoljunkie is a Democrat and the KYPatroit17 is a Republican. They might have inside sources who are leaking informaiton? That's why I said believe this at your own will.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 03:11:29 pm
Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isnít high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

Believe this at your own will.










How would these people know the exact results of absentee votes in all these counties before polls close? For that matter it is highly suspect that the libertarian has gotten 0% from these votes

No idea, should note that it appears the kypoljunkie is a Democrat and the KYPatroit17 is a Republican. They might have inside sources who are leaking informaiton? That's why I said believe this at your own will.

In KY, does early vote skew a certain way compared to Election Day vote?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 05, 2019, 03:13:56 pm
Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isnít high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

Believe this at your own will.










How would these people know the exact results of absentee votes in all these counties before polls close? For that matter it is highly suspect that the libertarian has gotten 0% from these votes

No idea, should note that it appears the kypoljunkie is a Democrat and the KYPatroit17 is a Republican. They might have inside sources who are leaking informaiton? That's why I said believe this at your own will.
Fair enough, I'm probably gonna discount this unless it's confirmed by someone reputable


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 05, 2019, 03:14:54 pm
Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isnít high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

Believe this at your own will.










How would these people know the exact results of absentee votes in all these counties before polls close? For that matter it is highly suspect that the libertarian has gotten 0% from these votes

No idea, should note that it appears the kypoljunkie is a Democrat and the KYPatroit17 is a Republican. They might have inside sources who are leaking informaiton? That's why I said believe this at your own will.

In KY, does early vote skew a certain way compared to Election Day vote?
KY doesn't have early vote, it has absentee but that is often very small


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 03:18:12 pm
No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 05, 2019, 03:22:43 pm
No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

Related are people on Twitter reporting "exit polls" at twelve noon on election day.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2019, 03:24:52 pm
No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

Also possible these are people seeing campaign data where they model this stuff or just making it up.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 03:25:10 pm
No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

What kind of loser makes up voting numbers?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 03:27:46 pm
No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

What kind of loser makes up voting numbers?

What king of loser makes up DMR poll numbers?

It's possible that these people are seeing/hearing about the ballot totals on in-person absentee machines. They really shouldn't be talking about them if they are as polls are still open and reporting them is definitely a legally gray area.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on November 05, 2019, 03:28:45 pm
What kind of loser makes up voting numbers?

Someone who wants to juice the predictit markets


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on November 05, 2019, 03:31:42 pm
Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for ďBeshearĒ? Letís see how that turns out!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on November 05, 2019, 03:33:28 pm
Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for ďBeshearĒ? Letís see how that turns out!

Bevin is the only one using it because he either wants to make his win look super impressive or give a lame excuse if he gets upset and loses


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2019, 03:37:19 pm
Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for ďBeshearĒ? Letís see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 03:41:25 pm
Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for ďBeshearĒ? Letís see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.

Then how are they getting the numbers if votes arenít counted yet?

Iíve been following elections for a while. We always see turnout reports, we always see anecdotes, I have NEVER seen people getting hold of hard results hours before polls close.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2019, 03:43:00 pm
Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for ďBeshearĒ? Letís see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.

Then how are they getting the numbers if votes arenít counted yet?

Iíve been following elections for a while. We always see turnout reports, we always see anecdotes, I have NEVER seen people getting hold of hard results hours before polls close.

Like I said, they either illegally have early results, have modeled results from the campaigns, or are making up numbers.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2019, 03:48:27 pm
High (in crappy US terms) turnout isnít necessarily good for Democrats.

It always depends what the mood among an electorate is at a given point in time.

Republicans can win a landslide in a 10% turnout election, or can do so in a 95% turnout election.

The same for Democrats.

I expect turnout to be up a bit from 2015, but not by a lot. It was a disgustingly low 30% or something in 2015, so itís probably 35% today statewide.

Still totally abysmal when compared internationally for such an important office.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 03:49:09 pm
Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for ďBeshearĒ? Letís see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.

Then how are they getting the numbers if votes arenít counted yet?

Iíve been following elections for a while. We always see turnout reports, we always see anecdotes, I have NEVER seen people getting hold of hard results hours before polls close.

Like I said, they either illegally have early results, have modeled results from the campaigns, or are making up numbers.

Wouldnít it be really risky to try to count votes illegally in front of other people?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Biden/Abrams Voter on November 05, 2019, 03:49:49 pm
I'm not entirely sure about how KY does it (according to Ebsy, this wouldn't be legally allowed), but here in GA, county election boards will begin counting mail ballots in the early afternoon via a process known as sequestration. Depending on how many ballots have been cast, the time at which this begins may be earlier (noon to 2 PM) or later (4 to 7 PM). Representatives for both parties will be present at the counting and nobody is allowed to leave the room until the polls are closed and two separate sets of counts are complete/in agreement (I don't think technically they're even allowed to bring their phones in, but that's not always enforced).

Even if this isn't legally how things are done in Kentucky, it would not surprise me if many "small town" election boards begin counting ballots ahead of schedule because they don't want to be there all night. It's KY: very similar to GA in the sheer number of counties and how few people live in many of them, so some casual law-breaking isn't out of the question.

Nevertheless, we get "Twitter turnout reports" in every election and a good deal of them turn out to be fake. So, in the spirit of things:

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun :)

Quote
Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2019, 03:56:10 pm
Republican Election Fraud



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 03:56:43 pm
I'm not entirely sure about how KY does it (according to Ebsy, this wouldn't be legally allowed), but here in GA, county election boards will begin counting mail ballots in the early afternoon via a process known as sequestration. Depending on how many ballots have been cast, the time at which this begins may be earlier (noon to 2 PM) or later (4 to 7 PM). Representatives for both parties will be present at the counting and nobody is allowed to leave the room until the polls are closed and two separate sets of counts are complete/in agreement (I don't think technically they're even allowed to bring their phones in, but that's not always enforced).

Even if this isn't legally how things are done in Kentucky, it would not surprise me if many "small town" election boards begin counting ballots ahead of schedule because they don't want to be there all night. It's KY: very similar to GA in the sheer number of counties and how few people live in many of them, so some casual law-breaking isn't out of the question.

Nevertheless, we get "Twitter turnout reports" in every election and a good deal of them turn out to be fake. So, in the spirit of things:

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun :)

Quote
Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

As usual, you hit the nail on the head Griff.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 04:07:25 pm
Republican Election Fraud


This is in Ohio.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Zaybay on November 05, 2019, 04:30:01 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2019, 04:35:42 pm
Republican Election Fraud


This is in Ohio.

Haha, sorry.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: 2016 on November 05, 2019, 04:37:55 pm
You can't just simply assume that every Voter from Louisville & Lexington will vote Democratic. I got a feel Zaybay might get disappointed again tonight like he was in 2018 with the Senate Races.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 04:42:57 pm
You can't just simply assume that every Voter from Louisville & Lexington will vote Democratic. I got a feel Zaybay might get disappointed again tonight like he was in 2018 with the Senate Races.

Also, note that even if turnout is higher in those places, it might not actually be decisive enough of a difference to matter in the end

If GOP turnout in California was high and dem turnout was low in some election, it would likely just mean the margin would be narrower than expected.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 04:52:28 pm


Looks like high (relative to 2015) turnout in heavily Republican Boone County. Union is an exurb of Cincinnati.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 04:54:02 pm
1 hour away from poll closing and NYT doesn't have their results page up....


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lucas Whitefur on November 05, 2019, 04:54:19 pm
1 hour away from poll closing and NYT doesn't have their results page up....

Yeah, what's going on?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 05, 2019, 04:59:23 pm
Republican Election Fraud


This is in Ohio.

Haha, sorry.

Ohio borders Kentucky.  That should count for something. ;)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Zaybay on November 05, 2019, 05:00:31 pm
You can't just simply assume that every Voter from Louisville & Lexington will vote Democratic. I got a feel Zaybay might get disappointed again tonight like he was in 2018 with the Senate Races.

I think Bevin is going to win this race. Im just posting turnout numbers from Jones, nothing more.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DTC on November 05, 2019, 05:00:33 pm
Hearing reports of tornadoes, angry great white sharks, riots, and hurricanes in Louisville and Lexington. Perfect weather everywhere else.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 05, 2019, 05:00:59 pm
Politico works just as well. Much more useful for this than the actual articles.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: 2016 on November 05, 2019, 05:03:47 pm
You can't just simply assume that every Voter from Louisville & Lexington will vote Democratic. I got a feel Zaybay might get disappointed again tonight like he was in 2018 with the Senate Races.

Also, note that even if turnout is higher in those places, it might not actually be decisive enough of a difference to matter in the end

If GOP turnout in California was high and dem turnout was low in some election, it would likely just mean the margin would be narrower than expected.

Andy Beshear won his 2015 Attorney General's Race by some 2K Votes. I can't imagine him beeing elected Governor. If he does it will be a squeaker. Still optimistic for Bevin to pull this out!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 05:07:27 pm
NYT page came live 1 hour from poll closing - rather late but ok.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor-general-election.html


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Frťmont Speaker Oregon Blue Dog on November 05, 2019, 05:15:17 pm
NYT page came live 1 hour from poll closing - rather late but ok.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor-general-election.html
Wow, precinct level results! Is this going to be a feature for other elections as well?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 05:20:54 pm
NYT page came live 1 hour from poll closing - rather late but ok.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor-general-election.html
Wow, precinct level results! Is this going to be a feature for other elections as well?

We were supposed to get them in 2018 but we all know how that went.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: LCameronOR on November 05, 2019, 05:21:15 pm
NYT page came live 1 hour from poll closing - rather late but ok.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor-general-election.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzfkxAC-Bw8


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Biden/Abrams Voter on November 05, 2019, 05:23:31 pm
NYT page came live 1 hour from poll closing - rather late but ok.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor-general-election.html
Wow, precinct level results! Is this going to be a feature for other elections as well?

Sometimes they put up precinct-level map results prior to poll closures but end up not filling them in: not sure why. Either way, there may or may not be, depending on how whomever's running that page feels I suppose.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 05, 2019, 05:29:22 pm
Republican Election Fraud


This is in Ohio.

Haha, sorry.

Ohio borders Kentucky.  That should count for something. ;)
Megacoattails?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 05:31:02 pm


Heavily dem precinct in Fayette County. No idea where he is getting the 65% number.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 05:34:20 pm
65% turnout? No way unless this is some precinct filled with poli sci majors who are very motivated


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 05, 2019, 05:35:52 pm


Heavily dem precinct in Fayette County. No idea where he is getting the 65% number.
Guys account is little more than a Twitter egg, dismiss it


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: CTConservative on November 05, 2019, 05:37:55 pm
Bevin is gonna win. The exit polls do show some good signs for Beshear but Bevin will still win.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 05:39:21 pm
Bevin is gonna win. The exit polls do show some good signs for Beshear but Bevin will still win.

Exit polls?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 05, 2019, 05:40:52 pm
Bevin is gonna win. The exit polls do show some good signs for Beshear but Bevin will still win.

The race could very well be closer than what I anticipated, but Bevin's win is looming on the horizon. This will probably be the last time in a long while that a Kentucky gubernatorial election will even be this close for Democrats. As I've said, if Beshear (and/or Stumbo and French-Henry) wins Elliott County, he might be the last Democrat to win it for the next seventy years.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: DTC on November 05, 2019, 05:42:29 pm
My brain surgeon who is about to operate on me is from Elliot County and he told me that Elliot County has rebelled against Bevin because heís too mean just like Hillary. Beshar may just have this in the sjfkkgjfckodxox


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on November 05, 2019, 05:44:03 pm
My brain surgeon who is about to operate on me is from Elliot County and he told me that Elliot County has rebelled against Bevin because heís too mean just like Hillary. Beshar may just have this in the sjfkkgjfckodxox

Lol a brain surgeon from Elliott County... one of the most poverty-stricken counties in the country

I mean itís possible, just not very probable

Edit: Goddammit you trolled me hardcore


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: 2016 on November 05, 2019, 05:48:30 pm
Bevin is gonna win. The exit polls do show some good signs for Beshear but Bevin will still win.
There will be NO EXIT POLLING for the two Governor Races tonight. We've to rely on the Raw Vote Totals.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 05:48:43 pm
If the gop doesnít do well in these races tonight, what will that mean for 2020 and trump?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on November 05, 2019, 05:50:47 pm
If the gop doesnít do well in these races tonight, what will that mean for 2020 and trump?

Doesnít make a difference at all. Would just be pretty embarrassing if GOP manages to lose either KY or MS Gov. Other than that, nada


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 05:53:36 pm
If the gop doesnít do well in these races tonight, what will that mean for 2020 and trump?

Nothing unless they lose MS. KY its a pure popularity vs partisan battle - SD and CT aren't going to be competitive even though their 2018 gubernatorial contest was. VA's Dem gains are just a continuation of the state being a new blue bastion/the harshest anti-trump state, so it's just a case of 'news at 11.'


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 05, 2019, 05:54:30 pm
If the gop doesnít do well in these races tonight, what will that mean for 2020 and trump?

Nothing unless they lose MS.

Even losing MS to someone like Hood wouldnít really mean anything.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Gone to Carolina on November 05, 2019, 05:54:41 pm
If the gop doesnít do well in these races tonight, what will that mean for 2020 and trump?

Nothing, if Bevin loses it's his own doing and in any case, tonight will be long forgotten by next year.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2019, 05:55:52 pm
Damn, I thought the Louisiana runoff was tonight too. Boo.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: From Prussia With Love on November 05, 2019, 05:56:01 pm
If the Rs lose KY, we might see some Senators become more open to impeachment


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: marty on November 05, 2019, 05:56:17 pm
Damn, I thought the Louisiana runoff was tonight too. Boo.

Itís not??


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2019, 05:57:06 pm
Damn, I thought the Louisiana runoff was tonight too. Boo.

Itís not??

November 16.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 05, 2019, 06:03:49 pm
I'm thinking a 4 point win for Bevin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Roll Roons on November 05, 2019, 06:05:18 pm
Beshear up in Elliott with 14% of the county vote in.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 05, 2019, 06:05:23 pm
Lol, Beshear with 72% in Elliott and outperforming his 2015 numbers in every county thatís reported so far.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on November 05, 2019, 06:06:03 pm
Beshear leading in Elliot so far


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 06:06:08 pm
I accept all blame  if it flips.

()


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 06:09:06 pm
DDHQ has beshear leading in Floyd (SE) 2/42 precincts 280-160 votes, and 1/44 preincts in Franklin (Frankfort) 645-281 votes.

Also notably that Stumbo is underpreforming Beshear by quite a bit in every county, suggesting Beshear is getting some serious crossover.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 05, 2019, 06:09:31 pm
This is looking terrible for Bevin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 05, 2019, 06:10:15 pm
Bevin is smoking it so far.

EDIT: Ok, now it's narrowed slightly for Beshear.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 05, 2019, 06:12:16 pm

I will be so happy if Bevin does lose. Perhaps Kentucky is not entirely gone for the Democratic Party. And in spite of all my talk about "polarization", I was very happy when Joe Manchin managed to win reelection last year. So don't anyone think that I'm set against Democratic victories in these states.

But it's still early, so we'll see what happens.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: soundchaser on November 05, 2019, 06:13:34 pm
I recognize that it's very early, but Beshear seems to be overperforming all his benchmarks...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 06:14:08 pm
Don't look now, but if the DDHQ map holds (unlikely), and is a early indicator (this is the first precincts though) this may be a case of Beshear getting BOTH the suburban swing and getting a swan song in the rurals.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 05, 2019, 06:14:55 pm
I don't think Beshear was supposed to outright win Menifee County.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 06:18:05 pm


I suspect even if Beshear loses, this is going to be the story of the night. Serious crossover going on, some Republicans really don't like Bevin and are giving Beshear their vote but going red on everything else.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: soundchaser on November 05, 2019, 06:20:46 pm
All of Lawrence County is in -- Beshear has 42.3% of the vote there. Outperforming his benchmark by about 5%.

EDIT: Well, maybe the NYT page was wrong. Lawrence is back down to 1 precinct of 18 reporting.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 05, 2019, 06:23:33 pm
Beshear and Heather French Henry leading now. Yikes.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Farmlands on November 05, 2019, 06:23:55 pm
I'm utterly astonished at Bevin's performance in rural areas, given what I thought were the trends that could be taken away from NC-9 special. But, even in these days I guess, the most unpopular governor in the country just can't shake that. I always had Beshear winning by the way.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on November 05, 2019, 06:25:43 pm
I wonder how many Cameron voters know he is black.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: CTConservative on November 05, 2019, 06:26:03 pm
Bevin is gonna win. The exit polls do show some good signs for Beshear but Bevin will still win.

Exit polls?

Meaning voter turnout, sorry for the mis characterisation.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on November 05, 2019, 06:26:43 pm
Also, the nominee for KY SOS is leading more then Beshear.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 06:28:31 pm
Every county that supposedly has 100% reporting was an error, wait a bit for saying that its all in, even in the small rurals.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 06:33:42 pm
DDHQ has the Jefferson early vote: 64.5 to 34.5 Beshear. 4768 to 2552.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 06:39:55 pm
Fayette County absentee 2015: Bevin: 633 Conway: 1,041
Fayette County absentee 2019: Bevin: 1,503 Beshear: 2,962


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 05, 2019, 06:46:29 pm
Bevin back in the lead.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 05, 2019, 07:10:25 pm
Welp, Beshear won Bath County by 6.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 07:13:14 pm
Wests reporting in.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More on November 05, 2019, 07:15:02 pm

Didnít Trump win it by 40?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 07:20:05 pm
Brashear getting close to 42% in Boone County. That's insanely good. Bevin won by over 2 to 1 there last time.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 07:23:06 pm
Also the reporting sites seem to be incredibly behind on Fayette County. Brashear is winning there by 40k votes (Conway only won it by 10k).


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 05, 2019, 07:30:24 pm
1/4 of all precincts in, and Bevin leads by 5.3


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 07:31:07 pm
Beshear narrowly wins Brethitt County, carrying the Hillbilly Elegy vote.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 07:47:01 pm
My Bevin +6 prediction seems to be coming true.

This good results for Beshear are tempting, but this is Kentucky and Matt Bevin will triumph (unfortunately for Kentuckians).


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 07:49:16 pm
My Bevin +6 prediction seems to be coming true.

This good results for Beshear are tempting, but this is Kentucky and Matt Bevin will triumph (unfortunately for Kentuckians).
I would not say this is consistent with the results so far... Beshear is currently leading.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 05, 2019, 07:52:09 pm
My Bevin +6 prediction seems to be coming true.

This good results for Beshear are tempting, but this is Kentucky and Matt Bevin will triumph (unfortunately for Kentuckians).
I would not say this is consistent with the results so far... Beshear is currently leading.

No he isn't, he's down by 4 and a good chunk of Jefferson is in...not good.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 07:53:15 pm
My Bevin +6 prediction seems to be coming true.

This good results for Beshear are tempting, but this is Kentucky and Matt Bevin will triumph (unfortunately for Kentuckians).
I would not say this is consistent with the results so far... Beshear is currently leading.
Actually, these results are quite consistent with that.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Priest of Moloch on November 05, 2019, 07:54:42 pm
God, I was gonna go through and find all the dumb "Bevin's gonna crush it" predictions but y'all keep posting them! Thank you!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ishan on November 05, 2019, 07:56:11 pm
Cameron should be declared winner in the AG race.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Wazza on November 05, 2019, 07:57:32 pm
Beshear wins Elliott by 20 points 59-39 according to CNN.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2019/results/kentucky/governor


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on November 05, 2019, 07:58:40 pm
Beshear wins by about 3 or 4 imo


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Zaybay on November 05, 2019, 08:00:56 pm
My Bevin +6 prediction seems to be coming true.

This good results for Beshear are tempting, but this is Kentucky and Matt Bevin will triumph (unfortunately for Kentuckians).
I would not say this is consistent with the results so far... Beshear is currently leading.
Actually, these results are quite consistent with that.

Not really, in fact these results kinda point to a Beshear victory, but we still need to wait and see.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 08:03:17 pm
If Beshear wins I'll be more than ecstatic, and I'm getting caught up in the fervor right now. But I still maintain Kentucky will Kentucky.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus! on November 05, 2019, 08:03:52 pm
You technically forgot one of the models:



Something near High-polarization though is the likeliest path, perhaps with bit more leeway.

Which Brashear won by 6.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 05, 2019, 08:05:00 pm
God, I was gonna go through and find all the dumb "Bevin's gonna crush it" predictions but y'all keep posting them! Thank you!

"+8"


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 05, 2019, 08:11:27 pm
Ah, now it's looks like we're getting something promising for Beshear.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 08:11:36 pm
Beshear wins Elliott by 20 points 59-39 according to CNN.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2019/results/kentucky/governor

Icespear BTFO


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Epaminondas on November 05, 2019, 08:12:39 pm
Dare we believe?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 08:12:53 pm
Not surprised on the Elliot result, but I'm not believing yet.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Pericles on November 05, 2019, 08:16:34 pm
Just been called for Beshear. WOW.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 08:17:15 pm
Oh my god. I am currently eating BOATLOADS of hay.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 08:18:12 pm


Absolutely incredible.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: FRSJ on November 05, 2019, 08:19:37 pm
He actually did it, the absolute madman


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 08:20:04 pm
THE ABSOLUTE MADLAD DID IT, BRING ON THE HAY


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Thunder98 on November 05, 2019, 08:20:08 pm
Congrats Gov-Elect Beshear


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Kingpoleon on November 05, 2019, 08:20:17 pm
There is officially no room left for victory for Bevin. He has no path.

I just tuned into this race ~15 minutes ago, but itís pretty much over.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Zaybay on November 05, 2019, 08:20:59 pm
Looks like Bandit gets the last laugh.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 08:22:58 pm
KY Wildman, wherever you are, you have every right to come here and claim a glorious victory. Your state, for now at least has been spared a terrible fate.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Fanofeverything25 on November 05, 2019, 08:25:46 pm
#byebyebevin


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: GP270watch on November 05, 2019, 08:31:58 pm
Bevin is one of the most loathsome politicians in America. It would be great to see him gone.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Lucas Whitefur on November 05, 2019, 08:32:26 pm
I'm very glad that Bevin lost, but I'm sure that the GOP will call a lame-duck session to take away Beshear's powers a la North Carolina and Wisconsin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Mine eyes have seen the glory of the crushing of the Trump on November 05, 2019, 08:32:59 pm
Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?
Yes, I do.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 05, 2019, 08:35:49 pm
Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?

We were right.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Biden/Abrams Voter on November 05, 2019, 08:42:45 pm
It's went from like a 3-point lead for Beshear to a 1-point lead (from 89% to 95% reporting) in like 10 minutes. Not sure I'm ready to accept Wasserman's call just yet.

()


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 08:45:02 pm
It's went from like a 3-point lead for Beshear to a 1-point lead (from 89% to 95% reporting) in like 10 minutes. Not sure I'm ready to accept Wasserman's call just yet.

()
What's left is some of western Kentucky and a bit of Jefferson County. I think it will be enough to secure Beshear the win but the outcome is definitely in doubt.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 08:58:07 pm
It's over, Beshear wins.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 08:59:59 pm
Bevin will get a couple thousand votes in what is left of Western Kentucky but I don't think it is possible that he closes the gap all the way.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: JGibson on November 05, 2019, 09:27:01 pm
#ByeByeBevin!!!  Bevin loses to Beshear! #KYGov


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: cg41386 on November 05, 2019, 09:27:52 pm
Bye Felicia


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Biden/Abrams Voter on November 05, 2019, 09:30:24 pm
()


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Biden/Abrams Voter on November 05, 2019, 09:31:44 pm

You know we think alike on these kinds of things, but you know the ribbing would come if this happened!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Kanye 2020, 2 Chainz 2024 on November 05, 2019, 09:36:22 pm
G O V E R N O R. B E S H E A R
O
V
E
R
N
O
R

B
E
S
H
E
A
R


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: CTConservative on November 05, 2019, 09:42:02 pm
Bevin is gonna win. The exit polls do show some good signs for Beshear but Bevin will still win.

Uh oh.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 05, 2019, 10:00:12 pm


...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Horsemask on November 05, 2019, 10:00:48 pm
It has been awhile since I've posted, but I just want to say: THANK GOODNESS


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 10:02:52 pm


womp womp


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: KaiserDave on November 05, 2019, 10:03:22 pm


womp womp

Sad loser Bevin won't admit he lost. Sad!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TDAS04 on November 05, 2019, 10:03:44 pm
My prediction was wrong, but I am glad the Democrat pulled a victory.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on November 05, 2019, 10:04:02 pm
KY looks like Va now


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: 538Electoral on November 05, 2019, 10:05:42 pm
Beshear won't get anything done anyway. The KY General Assembly is still overwhelmingly Republican and will block any liberal positions Beshear may try to enact.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 05, 2019, 10:05:42 pm


womp womp

Sad loser Bevin won't admit he lost. Sad!

Bevin is refusing to concede, just like Roy Moore back in 2017. It won't matter anyhow. He will be out of office in two months.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 10:06:12 pm
Beshear claiming victory on CNN now in his speech.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: ethanhenare1 on November 05, 2019, 10:07:08 pm
Congrats to Beshear!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Old School Republican on November 05, 2019, 10:07:19 pm

Yah it looks like 2001 Virginia


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 10:15:18 pm
()

MCI map's map is out. Note the Swing in Louisville, Lexington, and the Cincinnati suburbs.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Mine eyes have seen the glory of the crushing of the Trump on November 05, 2019, 10:17:32 pm
Beshear won't get anything done anyway. The KY General Assembly is still overwhelmingly Republican and will block any liberal positions Beshear may try to enact.
And the Kentucky House will sustain his vetoes!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 05, 2019, 10:18:07 pm
^These rural Eastern KY counties did Bevin in.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2019, 10:37:04 pm
I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living. ;)

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: TexasGurl on November 05, 2019, 10:44:11 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2019, 10:50:17 pm
I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living. ;)

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.

()

Literally isn't though. Just off the top of my head KYWildman, Tender Branson, and Bandit thought this.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 05, 2019, 11:05:34 pm
Yeah, obviously this race could have easily gone the other way, and itís probably fairly likely that Beshear will face a very difficult reelection race in 2023, especially if a Democrat is president. The GOP bench is only getting stronger and itís hard to find another Republican candidate as inept and odious as Bevin. (Iím by no means predicting that he will lose, but Iíd be surprised if he didnít struggle like JBE this year.)


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 05, 2019, 11:56:14 pm
Yeah, obviously this race could have easily gone the other way, and itís probably fairly likely that Beshear will face a very difficult reelection race in 2023, especially if a Democrat is president. The GOP bench is only getting stronger and itís hard to find another Republican candidate as inept and odious as Bevin. (Iím by no means predicting that he will lose, but Iíd be surprised if he didnít struggle like JBE this year.)

We'll cross that bridge when we come to it, for now we should be celebrating Kentucky's apparent and unexpected common sense.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on November 06, 2019, 12:58:42 am
Not every day you get to wake up to such glorious news! The most punchable and disgusting Governor in the US getting exactly what he deserves!

It's also doubly satisfying considering how bullish a great number of posters have been about Bevin winning, ridiculing anyone who even dared to suggest Beshear might have a shot.   

I would hope people would learn from this, but having been on Atlas for a decade now I know people will forget this lesson in two heart-beats and will be back to making super-confident predictions and assumptions in time for the presidential election in a year.

Anyway, I'll be unbearably self-congratulatory on getting this one right:

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

I'm of the opinion that approval and favorability numbers are more of a factor in Gubernatorial elections, while normal partisan leans take precedent in presidential and congressional elections. I think there is recent precedent for that view in KS Governor 18 and LA Governor 15, especially in the latter case. The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

That's why I believe Bevin will loose this race, he simply seems to be so thoroughly unpopular in Kentucky that Beshear has a shot. Now, if this was a Senate race we were talking about, there'd be no chance in hell that the Democrat would prevail, no matter how unpopular MoscowMitch becomes, but I still believe there is a huge difference between how polarized the electorate is regarding state elections, compared with national ones.

Though I might be proven to be too optimistic. We'll just have to wait til November and see. 


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 06, 2019, 01:09:39 am
I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living. ;)

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.
Translation: "I was wrong, but I will not change my behavior, I'll keep acting like an asshole, and I'll gloat for weeks if proven right"


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on November 06, 2019, 03:08:54 am


Trump - aka the rightwing olawakandi - actually thinks his election eve rally single-handedly reversed the results of that infamous +19 Beshear poll.

Lol go to bed, Twitler.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Annatar on November 06, 2019, 03:18:23 am
To bad there are no exit polls because the vote splitting was big, Bevin on average got around a 100k fewer votes than the other republicans meaning 7% of all voters who voted republican in other races voted for Beshear and around 12% of all voters that generally voted for republican candidates. Thatís Joe Morrissey levels of defection.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
Post by: President Pericles on November 06, 2019, 03:56:24 am
I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living. ;)

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.

()

Literally isn't though. Just off the top of my head KYWildman, Tender Branson, and Bandit thought this.

Nobody believed Beshear would win by 19 points, and while Tender overestimated the margin overall they just predicted a Beshear win. They did not predict a 19 point Beshear win as you misleadingly imply, so yes you are strawmanning here. I hope this is a lesson to people to show more humility and not make such arrogant predictions in the future (I highly doubt it will be though).


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Skye on November 06, 2019, 04:12:52 am
The swing map sure is a sight to behold:

()


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: DaWN on November 06, 2019, 05:28:59 am
In the defence of those of us who called this Safe R (and sure, we don't have much of one but hear me out), we were (I certainly was at least) approaching this race very logically - polarisation and the urban-rural divide, coupled with basically every election result since the midterms pointing towards both of those things increasing, led to a fairly logical conclusion. It just turned out this wasn't a very logical race and thus produced an illogical outcome.

It does however lead to a new logical conclusion - Democrats can win in red states if they're a moderate with deep ties to the state and they're up against really bad Republican candidates. It was how Manchin won and it was how Beshear won. At least that's how it looks now.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it. I'm going back to looking an election that actually has consequences for me.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on November 06, 2019, 07:16:34 am
I had an overnight watch so unfortunately could not watch results in real time, but I will happily eat sh**t. I guess Beshear is the king at pulling slim wins out of thin air. Feel free to mock all of my posts about KY. We canít all maintain a perfect batting average.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Farmlands on November 06, 2019, 07:26:50 am
I won't call anyone out for having the race as likely Republican, that is a perfectly logical rating, but it was never Safe at any point, which only means there was discarding of Bevin's huge unpopularity numbers and even nowadays, governorships aren't partisan like that. This will very probably apply to Lousiana too


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Acting Governor R2D2 (Voting for the Not Fascist) on November 06, 2019, 07:37:53 am
Truly incredible night for Governor-elect Beshear, but I would pump the brakes on projecting this into 2020 and beyond. McConnell is incredibly unpopular as well but Beshear ran the perfect campaign in KY. I'm not sure McGrath has done the same thus far. Of course there's plenty of time until next year, but the GOP did really well in down ballot races last night. At the very least, we can celebrate this huge victory and Mitch now has something to think about.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Sir Mohamed on November 06, 2019, 09:45:01 am
I'm curious to see how Beshear's governorship will go? Maybe the path of Ron DeSantis? Elected by an extremely narrow margin, but high approvals months into office?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Skye on November 06, 2019, 10:22:14 am
Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2019, 10:24:07 am
Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?

Like I thought, there were more pollsters in the state that we realized, they just all held their numbers because nobody believed what they showed. So only the bad and scheduled polls got released. Even then, the bad and scheduled polls were few and far inbetween.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: TexasGurl on November 06, 2019, 10:33:26 am
Just wait til the legislature steps in and declares Bevin the winner.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus! on November 06, 2019, 11:08:41 am
In the defence of those of us who called this Safe R (and sure, we don't have much of one but hear me out), we were (I certainly was at least) approaching this race very logically - polarisation and the urban-rural divide, coupled with basically every election result since the midterms pointing towards both of those things increasing, led to a fairly logical conclusion. It just turned out this wasn't a very logical race and thus produced an illogical outcome.

It does however lead to a new logical conclusion - Democrats can win in red states if they're a moderate with deep ties to the state and they're up against really bad Republican candidates. It was how Manchin won and it was how Beshear won. At least that's how it looks now.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it. I'm going back to looking an election that actually has consequences for me.

I'm sorry, but no. Declaring Bevin winning as the overwhelming likelihood was foolish considering there was almost no worthwhile pulling in the race, no very few holes worth a damn such as Mason-Dixon showed a neck and neck race, and Bevan had among the worst approval ratings of any governor in the country.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: TDAS04 on November 06, 2019, 11:16:01 am
Biden/Beshear 2020!  lol


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 06, 2019, 11:21:40 am
Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?

If that was released I think the forum would've been off by a lot more than we were lol. I can't even see the logo for who did it it's so small.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Rep. Gracile on November 06, 2019, 11:23:44 am
Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?

If that was released I think the forum would've been off by a lot more than we were lol. I can't even see the logo for who did it it's so small.

It's Trafalgar, a Republican pollster with a history of iffy polling results.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 06, 2019, 11:24:02 am
Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?



Or are they releasing it just now?

Missing this poll was a huge failure on the part of Atlas.  I blame Tender.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2019, 12:38:40 pm
Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?


Or are they releasing it just now?

Missing this poll was a huge failure on the part of Atlas.  I blame Tender.

Never seen this one before.

It wasnít even posted on Wikipedia ...


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Pollster on November 06, 2019, 01:29:25 pm
Not sure if this has already been discussed (I stopped reading after Beshear was named apparent winner) but Kenton almost exactly matched the statewide margin.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2019, 01:56:23 pm
Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?


Or are they releasing it just now?

Missing this poll was a huge failure on the part of Atlas.  I blame Tender.

Never seen this one before.

It wasnít even posted on Wikipedia ...

538 only added it today, so I think it must not have been publicly released.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on November 06, 2019, 02:01:44 pm
Just wait til the legislature steps in and declares Bevin the winner.

They can't. It would be unconstitutional and any such attempt would be killed off by the courts quickly. 

Quote from: Kentucky Constitution ß 70
The Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected for the term of four years by the qualified voters of the State.  They shall be elected jointly by the casting by each voter of a single vote applicable to both offices, as shall be provided by law.  The slate of candidates having the highest number of votes cast jointly for them for Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: DrScholl on November 06, 2019, 02:10:52 pm
Not that constitutionality will stop the legislature from at least trying to declare Bevin the winner. It's clearly under consideration

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/

Quote
Stivers said he thought Bevinís speech declining to concede to Beshear was ďappropriate.Ē He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Old School Republican on November 06, 2019, 02:13:26 pm
Not that constitutionality will stop the legislature from at least trying to declare Bevin the winner. It's clearly under consideration

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/

Quote
Stivers said he thought Bevinís speech declining to concede to Beshear was ďappropriate.Ē He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.




How the heck is that an argument, the state constitution does not state that a candidate has to win a majority of the vote , just highest meaning a candidate just needs a plurality to win


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Duke of York on November 06, 2019, 02:23:43 pm
Just wait til the legislature steps in and declares Bevin the winner.

They can't. It would be unconstitutional and any such attempt would be killed off by the courts quickly. 

Quote from: Kentucky Constitution ß 70
The Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected for the term of four years by the qualified voters of the State.  They shall be elected jointly by the casting by each voter of a single vote applicable to both offices, as shall be provided by law.  The slate of candidates having the highest number of votes cast jointly for them for Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected

And what's to stop them from ignoring the courts. Republicans have clearly shown they find Democracy an annoyance


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2019, 02:30:57 pm
If they don't like a third-party candidate influencing the outcome, maybe they should implement RCV.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2019, 02:50:48 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: President Pericles on November 06, 2019, 02:54:29 pm
In the defence of those of us who called this Safe R (and sure, we don't have much of one but hear me out), we were (I certainly was at least) approaching this race very logically - polarisation and the urban-rural divide, coupled with basically every election result since the midterms pointing towards both of those things increasing, led to a fairly logical conclusion. It just turned out this wasn't a very logical race and thus produced an illogical outcome.

It does however lead to a new logical conclusion - Democrats can win in red states if they're a moderate with deep ties to the state and they're up against really bad Republican candidates. It was how Manchin won and it was how Beshear won. At least that's how it looks now.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it. I'm going back to looking an election that actually has consequences for me.

Maybe it depends to an extent on the red state that is being discussed, and KY while having a big Trump margin had dynamics that made a Beshear win more plausible than red states with similar partisanship at the presidential level.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: TexasGurl on November 06, 2019, 04:36:02 pm
I know next to nothing about Kentucky politics but the senate leader seems to think this is a thing.

Anything they try wouldn't surprise me at all.
 (https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/)



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 06, 2019, 04:52:24 pm
Don Blankenshipís hometown Stopover Pike co KY

()

()


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 06, 2019, 05:25:30 pm
Not sure if this has already been discussed (I stopped reading after Beshear was named apparent winner) but Kenton almost exactly matched the statewide margin.

Might Kenton become Kentucky's new bellwether county?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2019, 06:15:07 pm
I know next to nothing about Kentucky politics but the senate leader seems to think this is a thing.

Anything they try wouldn't surprise me at all.
 (https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/)



"Libertarian votes would've went to Bevin" is not grounds for a contested election.   There is absolutely no chance this actually goes through.   They'd just be making up rules out of nowhere and threatening the very idea of a "Republican form of government" like the US Constitution says.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: elephantower on November 06, 2019, 08:46:46 pm
Overall pretty happy with my prediction of a 6 point Bevin win


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: jimmie on November 06, 2019, 09:17:49 pm
Overall pretty happy with my prediction of a 6 point Bevin win

Are you still sticking with your prediction of JBE losing?

Will be hilarious to see Rispone be humilated when he loses the suburban New Orleans parishes big.

I could be wrong of course.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2019, 09:20:02 pm
Overall pretty happy with my prediction of a 6 point Bevin win

The ability to gracefully handle being wrong is a useful trait in life, and here in particular.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: CTConservative on November 06, 2019, 09:31:09 pm
Overall pretty happy with my prediction of a 6 point Bevin win

The ability to gracefully handle being wrong is a useful trait in life, and here in particular.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: KaiserDave on November 06, 2019, 09:32:22 pm
Overall pretty happy with my prediction of a 6 point Bevin win

How??? I had the same prediction? We were (thankfully) dead wrong.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2019, 08:08:01 pm
Also hilarious that people are surprised that Trump's rallies didnít have an impact here. Obama campaigned for Anthony Brown in Maryland in 2014 and couldnít win that race for his party. Trump couldnít even sway West Virginia to send Republican to the Senate in 2018.

It just doesnít matter. Midterms tend to be ugly for the incumbent party for a reason.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: KaiserDave on November 07, 2019, 08:10:16 pm
Also hilarious that people are surprised that Trump's rallies didnít have an impact here. Obama campaigned for Anthony Brown in Maryland in 2014 and couldnít win that race for his party. Trump couldnít even sway West Virginia to send Republican to the Senate in 2018.

It just doesnít matter. Midterms tend to be ugly for the incumbent party for a reason.

Well I do think he may have turned a +1 Beshear win into a .4 one. I just don't think rallies are magic wands that can flip +20 results.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2019, 08:14:47 pm
Also hilarious that people are surprised that Trump's rallies didnít have an impact here. Obama campaigned for Anthony Brown in Maryland in 2014 and couldnít win that race for his party. Trump couldnít even sway West Virginia to send Republican to the Senate in 2018.

It just doesnít matter. Midterms tend to be ugly for the incumbent party for a reason.

Well I do think he may have turned a +1 Beshear win into a .4 one. I just don't think rallies are magic wands that can flip +20 results.

True, I agree that it probably helped Bevin a little, but clearly not by 5-10 points. I also think thereís some truth to the theory that his rallies tend to energize Democrats just as much Republicans (I also saw this in MT last year).


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Virginia Yellow Dog on November 07, 2019, 08:23:57 pm


It doesn't seem his fellow Republicans are all that eager to rally around him:

Republicans urge Bevin to provide proof of election fraud or concede (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-urge-bevin-to-provide-proof-of-election-fraud-or-concede/ar-BBWqMgW?ocid=spartanntp)

Their message to him is basically: Put up, or shut up.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Laki on November 08, 2019, 07:41:02 am
Great. Kentucky, the FF state, electing a Democrat. Well done!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Virginia Yellow Dog on November 08, 2019, 09:01:39 am
This is an embarrassing result for Trump, but hardly disastrous for the Kentucky Republican Party.  Given that the GOP has won all other statewide races, they are in a prime position to build up a stronger bench for future gubernatorial races (and avoiding having to nominate candidates like Ernie Fletcher and Matt Bevin ever again). 


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on November 08, 2019, 09:28:19 am
This is an embarrassing result for Trump, but hardly disastrous for the Kentucky Republican Party.  Given that the GOP has won all other statewide races, they are in a prime position to build up a stronger bench for future gubernatorial races (and avoiding having to nominate candidates like Ernie Fletcher and Matt Bevin ever again). 

You should never underestimate the Republicans ability to nominate candidates like Matt Bevin, even in cases where they have a strong bench.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Sir Mohamed on November 08, 2019, 10:03:31 am
What happens if Mr. Bevin continues to refuse conceding, SoS certified the results and state legislature doesn't intervene? He just loses his authority on Dec. 10 and his executive actions are invalid, just as I mine were if I claimed to be gov of CA?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Epaminondas on November 08, 2019, 10:16:41 am
The KY state constitution makes a special case for the governor's race, which  "if contested" can be solved by the legislature stepping in.
The definition of contested is key here: are 5,000 votes contestable?

The good news in this new development is that the current SoS Alison Grimes can be trusted with an honest appraisal of tallies.

Let's not imagine what would happen if this were the same as Georgia, with Bevin in charge of counting his own ballots!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: The scissors of false economy on November 08, 2019, 02:01:13 pm
What happens if Mr. Bevin continues to refuse conceding, SoS certified the results and state legislature doesn't intervene? He just loses his authority on Dec. 10 and his executive actions are invalid, just as I mine were if I claimed to be gov of CA?

Yes, exactly.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Cosmopolitanism Will Win on November 11, 2019, 03:30:21 pm
When can we expect the votes to be certified? Any news on the Bevin allegations/recanvassing/legislature front?


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Tender Branson on November 11, 2019, 04:06:23 pm
When can we expect the votes to be certified? Any news on the Bevin allegations/recanvassing/legislature front?

Today in 2 weeks, says the KY election calendar.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 12, 2019, 12:27:51 am
When can we expect the votes to be certified? Any news on the Bevin allegations/recanvassing/legislature front?

The recanvass occurs Thursday.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Tender Branson on November 12, 2019, 12:31:19 pm
When can we expect the votes to be certified? Any news on the Bevin allegations/recanvassing/legislature front?

The recanvass occurs Thursday.

My prediction:

Not more than a net 30 votes will change statewide.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 12, 2019, 12:44:07 pm
A group of "concerned" voters speak out on their thoughts of maybe possible fraud somewhere

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Group-of-voters-share-their-concerns-on-governors-race-564769502.html

Quote
"We've heard complaints. We've heard about record turnout, yet I haven't talked to a single person in Fayette County who waited in line anywhere to vote despite record turnout. Things just don't add up. As voters, we want to know what is going on. As voters, we want to know [if] anyone is looking into this," said Erika Calihan, a concerned voter.

The group says they hoped to talk about specific evidence at the news conference, but they were not able to do that.

These people really should be locked up.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: President Johnson on November 12, 2019, 12:53:18 pm
A group of "concerned" voters speak out on their thoughts of maybe possible fraud somewhere

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Group-of-voters-share-their-concerns-on-governors-race-564769502.html

Quote
"We've heard complaints. We've heard about record turnout, yet I haven't talked to a single person in Fayette County who waited in line anywhere to vote despite record turnout. Things just don't add up. As voters, we want to know what is going on. As voters, we want to know [if] anyone is looking into this," said Erika Calihan, a concerned voter.

The group says they hoped to talk about specific evidence at the news conference, but they were not able to do that.

These people really should be locked up.

If Democrats talked like this after a 5,000 vote Bevin victory, Trump and his buddies would be calling for that. No question about that.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Teflon Joe on November 12, 2019, 01:26:28 pm
They saw a big line of blacks voting, and assumed they were bused in illegally from Chicago by ACORN.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 12, 2019, 01:30:50 pm
They saw a big line of blacks voting, and assumed they were bused in illegally from Chicago by ACORN.

Ah, but they didn't see that.  That's what makes them so "concerned"


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Tender Branson on November 12, 2019, 01:32:35 pm
A group of "concerned" voters speak out on their thoughts of maybe possible fraud somewhere

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Group-of-voters-share-their-concerns-on-governors-race-564769502.html

Quote
"We've heard complaints. We've heard about record turnout, yet I haven't talked to a single person in Fayette County who waited in line anywhere to vote despite record turnout. Things just don't add up. As voters, we want to know what is going on. As voters, we want to know [if] anyone is looking into this," said Erika Calihan, a concerned voter.

The group says they hoped to talk about specific evidence at the news conference, but they were not able to do that.

These people really should be locked up.

Stopped reading after "record turnout".

These concerned women think 40% turnout is "record high" ... LOL.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Tender Branson on November 13, 2019, 04:39:06 pm
The statewide re-canvass is scheduled for tomorrow.

A re-canvass is not a recount ... read more here:

https://eu.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/13/kentucky-governor-race-what-know-bevins-requested-recanvass/2577825001/


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 13, 2019, 04:45:07 pm
Bevin is still talking about this as if he can still be the winner. What a sore loser. Maybe it's good for the KY Republican party to get rid of him in the long run. Cameron could be a good candidate to take on Beshear in 2023 and would keep the 'AG running for governor' streak going.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Biden/Abrams Voter on November 13, 2019, 04:46:14 pm
BREAKING NEWS: Group of Voters Thinks Their Candidate Should Have Won, Can't Believe He Didn't


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 13, 2019, 05:25:41 pm
BREAKING NEWS: Group of Voters Thinks Their Candidate Should Have Won, Can't Believe He Didn't

I think what blows my mind about this is how lazy it is.  It almost as if it's an Onion man on the street bit.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus! on November 13, 2019, 08:10:06 pm
BREAKING NEWS: Group of Voters Thinks Their Candidate Should Have Won, Can't Believe He Didn't

I think what blows my mind about this is how lazy it is.  It almost as if it's an Onion man on the street bit.

Yes. These so-called concerned voters are obviously a bunch of Bevin campaign supporters / workers. Didn't anyone have the nominal amount of journalistic insight ask this question. It's not like they met up on Facebook and called the press conference


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 13, 2019, 09:40:42 pm
Bevin is still talking about this as if he can still be the winner. What a sore loser. Maybe it's good for the KY Republican party to get rid of him in the long run. Cameron could be a good candidate to take on Beshear in 2023 and would keep the 'AG running for governor' streak going.

Honestly this is the correct take 120%. If I was a Kentucky Republican, I'd just shut this embarrassing and crappy chapter and not make Beshear taking office difficult and say hasta la vista to Bevin forever and try to forget it ever happened. Then I'd make sure Beshear was a sitting duck who does nothing for 4 years and then gets defeated. And then make sure to not nominate incompetent idiots like Bevin in the future and hold KY for a long time. The end.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Xing on November 13, 2019, 09:59:19 pm
It does seem like most Republicans are intent on cutting Bevin loose once the re-canvass is over, since even they can tell he's a liability.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 14, 2019, 02:14:53 am
I donít think McConnell is too unhappy about Bevin losing. Republicans swept all the other statewide offices, his protťgť Cameron won easily, and he wonít be dragged down by Bevin's unpopularity in 2020.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 14, 2019, 02:13:47 pm
The only change in the recanvass  is one county that missed a write in vote for Blackii Effing Whyte which brought his total to 46 votes, which means he still loses to Beshear...and Bevin lost too.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 14, 2019, 02:15:20 pm
KY SOS website says that after a recanvass of 115/120 counties, no irregularities or votes were made in error save for a write-in.  

Deep state just got deeper, fellas!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 14, 2019, 02:19:04 pm


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 14, 2019, 02:19:20 pm


Hey, he concedes!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 14, 2019, 02:39:59 pm
So I guess it's not 1899 in Kentucky again (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election) after all. Small victories.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Tender Branson on November 14, 2019, 02:41:56 pm
Quote
Bevin concedes.

Good riddance.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Xing on November 14, 2019, 03:20:16 pm
Republicans weren't backing up his shenanigans, so this isn't surprising. Still good news, though. Bye, Felicia!


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Cosmopolitanism Will Win on November 14, 2019, 03:36:55 pm
Thank God, democracy prevails.


So I guess it's not 1899 in Kentucky again (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election) after all. Small victories.

Quote
An incensed Democratic majority in the Kentucky General Assembly created a committee to investigate the charges of voter fraud, even as armed citizens from heavily Republican eastern Kentucky poured into the state capital under auspices of keeping Democrats from stealing the election. Before the investigative committee could report, Goebel was shot by an unknown assassin while entering the state capitol on January 30, 1900. As Goebel lay in a nearby hotel being treated for his wounds, the committee issued its report recommending that the General Assembly invalidate enough votes to give the election to Goebel. The report was accepted, Taylor was deposed, and Goebel was sworn into office on January 31. He died three days later on February 2.

holy sh*t this is WILD :o


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 14, 2019, 08:11:39 pm
I said it before, but I'm proud of this joke, and it seems like another good opportunity:

KENTUCKY FRIED BEVIN!



Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Tender Branson on November 16, 2019, 12:52:40 am
Here are the official re-canvass results for Governor:

http://web.sos.ky.gov/electionmall/recanvass.aspx

Only 1 vote out of 1.5 million votes cast changed.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: VirginiŠ on November 19, 2019, 12:13:02 am


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Old School Republican on November 19, 2019, 12:48:06 am


So which poster on this forum is Matt Bevin because the only way Kentucky is a blue state is if you are using Atlas colors


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Xing on November 19, 2019, 01:19:20 am
I've heard of moving the goalposts, but this is like placing them up in the 300 section.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: TML on November 19, 2019, 01:21:49 am


So which poster on this forum is Matt Bevin because the only way Kentucky is a blue state is if you are using Atlas colors

You could also say that KY is a blue state by virtue of a plurality of its voters being registered to the Democratic Party - if that's what he means.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 19, 2019, 01:40:42 am
I've heard of moving the goalposts, but this is like placing them up in the 300 section.

It's like moving them onto a cricket field


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 19, 2019, 02:19:11 am
I see Bevin is preparing to become the face of South Dakota's anti-meth campaign.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Skye on November 19, 2019, 07:22:05 am


()

Looks pretty blue to me.


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Virginia Yellow Dog on November 19, 2019, 08:46:39 am


That's a pathetic excuse. The fact that most voters in Kentucky are either former Democrats and/or ancestral Democrats (I presume that was what he meant) means virtually nothing when 9 times out of 10 they vote Republican. 


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 19, 2019, 09:02:30 am


That's a pathetic excuse. The fact that most voters in Kentucky are either former Democrats and/or ancestral Democrats (I presume that was what he meant) means virtually nothing when 9 times out of 10 they vote Republican.  


By that logic, the GOP has an uphill battle in West Virginia, Mississippi, and Tennessee in 2020.  

It reminds me of tweets that I've seen after JBE was re-elected.  I kid you not: "Louisiana is a Democrat blue state.  Always has been, no wonder the Democrat won!"


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on November 20, 2019, 12:24:38 am


That's a pathetic excuse. The fact that most voters in Kentucky are either former Democrats and/or ancestral Democrats (I presume that was what he meant) means virtually nothing when 9 times out of 10 they vote Republican. 


Especially pathetic excuse coming from the sole Republican statewide loser in his ďblueĒ state lmaoo


Title: Re: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
Post by: Epaminondas on November 24, 2019, 10:32:09 am
A piece on this election (https://thebaffler.com/latest/nothing-to-learn-ray) from The Baffler.