Talk Elections

What would be your prediction for 2024, if we see a Biden election in 2020?

The four above are the most plausible options. There is, at least statistically, some chance he does not make it through the term since he'll be 78 on inauguration day. I didn't want to include this voting option because I find it a little tasteless to speculate on a person's death. I think we can all agree to wish him fine health and a long life.


My hottake would be he announces his retirement some time in spring 2023 and his VP (Kamala Harris?) gets the nomination and beats the GOP challenger. The economy might struggle early in his term, but by 2024 will be solid enough for Dems to keep the WH.

I'm honestly not sure whether or not Biden would run. I would say Lean no, but he would be replaced by a Republican either way.

Biden retires, becomes a elder statesman.

Harris is the VP, but she could lose to DeSantis or Haley or Wenstrup.

Wenstrup? I don't even know who that is.

Biden retires.  Harris loses to Cotton or DeSantis.

I don't think Cotton can win a presidential election, unless there's a recession or nuclear war or something under the watch of a hypothetical Biden administration. Cotton is to the right of Trump on immigration, a neoconservative on foreign policy, and extremely right-wing on social issues. he has none of the crossover appeal that Trump had and would turn off most independent voters big time.

Ohio Rep. Brad Wenstrup. He is a doctor, a Midwestern conservative.

Cotton may be too conservative for America.

I'm pretty sure the 2024 GOP candidate is on nobody's radar at this point. DeSantis and Haley are too predictable. Could happen of course, but I doubt.

Cotton is inelectible except in a very right-wing state. DeSantis? He is too new to have established a reputation, so he is hard to pick.

I expect Biden to do what Reagan did that Trump has not done: surrounding himself with good people capable of saying no to him. If he should go into decline, then he will take a ceremonial role whole trustworthy people make policy. Trump surrounds himself with yes-men, and when he goes bad he goes into bigger and deeper trouble rather than backing off.

I am fully aware that people can stay clear-headed into their eighties, but we all know the actuarial issues of aging.       

Biden either retires or loses, but will definitely be succeeded by a Republican. Likely Ron DeSantis.

If Biden runs for re-election:

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Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) / Former Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) - 278 EVs, 48%
President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Vice President Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) - 260 EVs, 50%

If Biden retires:

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Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) / Former Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) - 303 EVs, 50%
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) - 235 EVs, 47%

How does Harris win VA, if Biden loses it


Both maps are too nice to Republicans in AZ, MN, and MI

Harris wins VA due to higher minority turnout that DeSantis can't contend with and he does better in the suburbs than Trump to win it.

News at 11, DeSantis is not winning Loudoun, Prince William, or Henrico

Not saying he has to win them, just do a lot better than Trump.

If Romney couldn't win VA in 2012, DeSantis isn't 10 years later. Obviously. The real question is who will Chesterfield vote for.

Biden won't be a weakened incumbent like Trump; as a result, he can win a 2nd term

Biden runs for reelection, faces a rematch with a totally senile Trump.

He will lose, not to DeSantis, who might have started as a conservative but his tenure at the Florida governorship will hurt him in the primary, Tom Cotton will win.

Voted the second option but the first could just as  easily happen. This would be the case for Bernie to.

VP Stacey Abrams defeats Gov. Ron DeSantis with Biden's 2020 map (2016+PA,WI,MI,AZ) -WI, -MI, +GA. (She wins again in 2028, as well.)

Biden runs for re-election, facing (& defeating) Pence.

Until the Donald (excepting, to a lesser extent, Goldwater), the GOP's nominees have been fairly predictable and well known by the establishement. Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush Sr, Bush Jr...

It's the Dems who win with unexpected candidates and lose with middle-of-the-road ones.

Depends what success means? He'll certainly get some bills passed such as infrastructure and a public option of healthcare, depending on how 2020 congressional elections turn out, appoint liberal or moderate judges and restore our standing in the world. That may fall flat if a recession hits and the public sees his admin as incompetent on the economy.


A 82 year old prez running against a 78 year old former prez? That'll be hard.

Biden retires and donates his hairplugs to the Smithsonian

The GOP have a weak bench: DeSantis, Cotton, Paul and Cruz. Unless, Jeb is the nominee, then the GOP isn't gonna to win. Rubio, star status has dimmed quite a bit, and he will have competetion in 2022, reelection bid.

It's the election we deserve.