Talk Elections

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-primary-biden-with-strong-lead-but-sanders-waiting-in-the-wings

Is Peters overrated or underrated? Find out in the comments below!

whoa thats close

Primary the f**ker before he blows this.

John James will loose due to #BradleyEffect

Lean D.

Stabenow is a stronger campaigner than Peters.

Peters is okay, but he could face a Bill Nelson-type campaign if he does not campaign tougher.

I agree. Gary Peters brings nothing worthwhile to the table really, and takes some oddly conservative votes. Michigan can elect a more liberal Senator without much worry. AOC should help fundraise a challenger for him.

Likely D

It should be Abdul El Sayed

If James does run, Peters won't be able to rest easy.

Precisely - He's an atrocious Senator from an ideological standpoint (wasn't he one of the ghouls who helped the Republicans gut financial regulations last year?) and I can say with confidence that he will stay asleep at the wheel until the last minute next year if/when he's the nominee.

El-Sayed or (Debbie) Dingell should go for it.

43% is about what James will get if not worst. He was supposed to beat Stabenow but will see how that turned out.

LMAO NOT HE WASN'T. Unless you were deluded enough to believe SN2903, which I know you weren't. Don't act so disingenuous.

Remember when Kid Rock was beating Stabenow?

Seeing as most of Michigan doesn't even know who their junior Senator is, he will be very vulnerable.

If James jumps in the race it's automatically toss up. I could imagine a scenario where Peters wins Wayne county by single digits if his campaign collapses due to his horrible campaigning skills.

Peters really doesn't offer anything to his base (he's very generic and takes oddly conservative votes occasionally). Plus, he's a poor campaigner, lacks an interesting story, and has no charisma. He has an advantage given the slight Democratic lean of Michigan, but James will have no problem getting campaign money, support, or help from national Republicans...Lean D...for now...

John James is such a worthless hack. An absolute disgrace if MI sends him to represent them in the Senate.

LMAO.

Why is John James so strong? I really hope he doesn't run; if that's the case, this is a tossup race.

Apparently no one has looked at the maps from last year. Republicans gained in smaller counties, but lost votes in larger counties that they previously relied on. James lost Kent County of all places. There isn't anything to suggest that he can do better in a presidential year.

1994 Republican Revolution, and that Republican Senator was beaten by Stabenow in 2000. 2018 was actually the first time since 2000 that Republicans got within single digits of a Senate seat in Michigan.

MI is always a tipping point race, I am confident Dems will win it

Yeah. The loss of Kent county doesn't bode well for the GOP in the state in the future. Also, Whitmer winning Washtenaw by a larger margin than Wayne was a disaster for them.

Who?

Strange man kicked out of debate.

Can we stop pretending James is some juggernaut? If you hadn't had a single attack ad run against you then you'd look pretty strong too. Stabenow basically ran on cruise control and still won by a decent margin, for all we know this guy could be a serious nut policy wise.

He ran at-the-hip with Trump against Stabenow. We know what his policies are.

Also if James manages to pull this off, he's an instant presidential/running mate contender for 2024 or 2028.

Let's just say this doesn't look good for Peters to start off with considering the history of Michigan polls the past few years.

The word on the street is that James is going to run against Haley Stevens in the 11th district. Other than that, I have no idea who the MIGOP would have left. Even if he did run, James would lose because Peters wouldn’t give him the benefit of not being attacked the entire campaign.

Yikes, I hope he challenges Haley, he would beat her, in exchanged for keeping Peters, I’d be more than happy to take that deal.

I think he'd be much more likely to beat Peters than Haley, so from a Democratic perspective, he should run for MI-11.

He’s also on the record as being against net neutrality. Dude deserves a primary for sure.

And yeah El-Sayed would be the best bet here. There’s also some great options inside the state legislature (like Yousef Rabhi).

1. We are over a year away from the race people.
2. This is Emerson. At times it’s a hit, but at other times it’s a miss.
3. Lol at Wayne County going single digits in a presidential year! Sir Woodbury lost a few marbles there.
4. Lean D for now.

We all know that Michigan will be competitive on the Senatorial and Presidential level next  year but this poll probably has John James benefiting from name ID.

If Peters runs a competent campaign he should win but yea I think others could be right that he could end up as the Bill Nelson of 2020. I am not predicting that yet.

The realignment continues!

The thing that is underestimated with this is that it fails to acknowledged that while yes it is bad long term, but Kent is still six points more Republican than the state as a whole, meaning that a Republican only needs to win it by 7 to tie statewide.

These states are trending Republican overall, but the geography within is changing as well. The rural areas that used to vote Dem are now going Republican by 20%, 25% and 30% margins, and the suburbs are becoming the decisive swing areas. This compared to the previous alignment when Democrats combined urban and rural against the suburban/small city islands that Republicans won by double digits while losing statewide by as much or more.

MI Sen 2018 was more Republican than MI SEN 2012, despite the national environment shifting from D+4 nationwide to D+9. Similar was seen in other Midwestern seats.   

Regardless, I'd much rather have Haley take one for the team, even if she will lose, in order to save a senate seat.

No one is running against Peters, but Peters with Harris and a blue collae Veep running a natl ticket, will be fine. As long as, Dems defend the pickups they successfully made in the House

This is giving me Florida 2018 vibes.

Are we really overreacting to an EMERSON poll that is polling a race TWENTY MONTHS OUT

Tossup,

But I think the Democrat drags Peters over the finish line


This and NH will come down to who carries the state in the Presidential Election

Maybe that unstoppable juggernaut John James can run for Senate and MI-11 at the same time and take down both Peters and Stevens. He might even win Wayne County on the strength of the MI-11 townships alone.

What do people think of James using his star power to knock Rashida Tlaib out of office?
 

Stevens or Peters, James will lose.

The fact no one is contesting MI right now, speaks for itself. Trump isnt duplicating the 2016 midwest strategy over his unpopular wall.

He has the logo finish wall, that Conway's hubby stepped away from and others in Trump's own administration

#KIDROCK2020

Spencer Abraham was Senator 1995 to 2001.

I am pretty sure Dems won the Lt. Gov race in 1994 in TX when Dubya won.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Bullock

Gillum was supposed to drag Bill Nelson across the finish line, that did not work out. Peters needs to make sure he does not need to be dragged.

But presidential races are top of the ballot races, and there are less and less ticket splitters, this means Peters can run a bad campaign and get reelected, if a Democrat wins MI, it also means he run. stellar campaign and lose, if Trump wins MI. These swing state senate races are highly polarized and competitive, and often follow the presidential ballot

Likely D tbqh, Peters is pretty underrated tbh and won his last race (which was supposed to be competitive) by 13 points (astroNUT). Unlike Debbie "Levin" Stagnag's inept campaign, bad boy Peters's team sure as hell won’t treat James with kiddie gloves! imo peters and cornyn both win by 20+ points if they air two or three more negative ads than cruz and stagnag.

In all seriousness, Peters probably wins in a good year for Democrats, but I definitely don’t buy that there will be hundreds of thousands of Trump/Peters voters in MI, even if James doesn’t run.

Reminder that in 2016 every single Senate race matched the presidential outcome in that state.

Emerson: who care