Talk Elections

There was a recent thread on the potential Republican field of presidential candidates in 2024 if Trump loses. What about the Democrats if he wins again?

- Gretchen Whitmer; she's on top of my list. I think she could emerge as the early frontrunner and she'd most likely be my favorite. Assuming she wins reelection as governor of course, what would be pretty sure in a second Trump midterm
- Gavin Newsom (my second choice)
- Kamala Harris
- Tulsi Gabbard
- Kirsten Gillibrand
- Catherine Cortez-Masto
- Roy Cooper (if reelected governor)
- Michael Bennet
- Jared Polis
- JB Pritzker (unsure whether he wants to be president)
- Steve Bullock (if he is senator only)
- Stacey Abrams (if she is senator only)
- David Zuckerman (if he is governor of Vermont)
- Joe Kennedy

I think unless it's Biden, Sanders, Brown or Warren, the 2020 nominee could run again if it was close. Beto would be irrelevant by then unless he becomes senator or governor.

Who I think won't run: Jacky Rosen, Kyrsten Sinema, Steve Sisolak, Ned Lamont, Laura Kelly, Kate Brown, Tim Walz, Michelle Lujan Grisham, John Fetterman

AOC.

I think also Beto O'Rourke if he runs in 2020 and comes in second in the Democratic primaries

God help us if JB Pritzker runs. Whitmer, Newsom, Polis, Grisham and Walz would all be viable - most of the other new governors would be quite old (Lamont, Kelly, Mills, Evers). Sinema could go for it, as could Gallego if he gets elected Senator in 2020. Booker, Gillibrand and Harris are all possibilities assuming someone else loses to Trump in 2020. Also throw in Bennet, CCM and Chris Murphy.

If Trump gets reelected, the field could be bigger than the 2020 one.

-Senator Stacey Abrams (narrowly wins runoff in 2020 over big anti-Trump anger)
-Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (Pelosi resigns due to health concerns)
-2020 VP Nominee Pete Buttigieg (Ran with K Harris)
-Senator Katie Hill (elected in 2021 special elex, RIP Feinstein)
-DNC Chair Beto O’Rourke
-Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
-Missouri Governor Jason Kander (elected 2020)

Had Stacey Abrams and/or Andrew Gillum won their respective races last year (and assuming they win re-election in a Trump midterm in 2022), I would definitely pick them as top tier 2024 presidential candidates.

Alas!  :(

Gavin Newsom - I mean, we all know he will first chance he gets.
Kyrsten Sinema as the “we lost because we were too left wing in 2020” candidate
Chris Murphy
Gretchen Whitmer
Michael Avenatti - perhaps saying that he’d have won if he’d run in 2020, kind of like what Trump did in 2012/2016 - not that he’d win, but he’s crazy enough to think he could.
Phil Murphy
Jared Polis (first openly Gay Governor, if Buttigieg doesn’t do too well in 2020 I could see him going for it)
Martin Heinrich
Maggie Hassan

Maybe Joe Manchin? he’s not gonna run for re-election, so he may think “why not?” He certainly seems to prefer an executive roll.

AOC will receive speculation, and by my calculations would be eligible (by about 1 month) but I don’t think she will run.

People who failed in 2020 may decide to go for it: Harris (though I think she’s the nominee), Gabbard (though she’s *probably* out of office by then and thus without much influence), Buttigieg

People who skipped campaigns in 2020 may decide to go for it: Merkley, Garcetti, T. Ryan, Bullock (not that these will all necessarily skip, but if they do)

From Governors:

1. Gavin Newsom
2. Jared Polis
3. Gretchen Whitmer
4. Steve Bullock (in 2020 elected Senator)
5. Roy Cooper

From Senators:
1. Chris Murphy
2. Amy Klobuchar
3. Kirsten Gillibrand
4. Jeff Merkley

If they will be elected:
1. Andrew Gillum
2. Stacey Abrams
3. Beto O'Rourke
4. Stephanie Murphy (Senate or Governor 2022)
5. Eric Garchetti

AOC
Gretchen Whitmer
Pete Buttigieg
Stacey Abrams (assuming she runs for Senate in 2020 and wins)
Catherine Cortez-Masto
Jared Polis
Beto O'Rourke
Steve Bullock
Kyrsten Sinema
Roy Cooper (although he probably flames out before Iowa...the base will be looking to elect X'ers or Millennials and will have largely moved on from Boomers)

Gavin Newsom will be the frontrunner should Dems lose in 2024, whom he has endorsed for prez

Whitmer would be better off running for Debbie Stabenow's Senate seat.