Talk Elections

If Trump runs for reelection and loses, who do you envision might run for the Republican nomination in 2024?

Obviously, there will be some unknowns (IE- people elected to statewide office in 2020, Celebrity candidates who emerge in opposition to the next Democratic President) but there will also likely be some candidates who already have the stature for a Presidential bid.

Some guesses...
Mike Pence- Obviously wants to be President. He'll start out with name recognition and resources.
Nikki Haley- One person to leave the Trump administration with her reputation increased.
Ben Carson- One of his serious weaknesses (a lack of experience) has been mitigated by his Cabinet post.
Marco Rubio- Will be in his early 50s. Senator with a national reputation who would represent a milestone in diversity.
Ted Cruz- See above.
Greg Abbot- Texas Governors run for President, and he has an inspirational life story.
Doug Ducey- Busiessman governor who was reelected comfortably in a Democratic year.

What about the guy who, if elected, would become the first president of Balkan descent?

Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Tom Cotton, Ben Carson, Mia Love(assuming she gets elected Governor in 2020), Marco Rubio, and Joni Ernst.

Tom Cotton

Ron DeSantis (assuming he doesn't lose re-election in 2022)

Dan Crenshaw (if he builds a following he could probably run straight from the House)

Mike Pence (tries to be the "reasonable" Trump-like candidate)

Nikki Haley (won't get nominated, though)

I also guarantee that at least one right-wing celebrity from Twitter/Fox News runs in 2024 at the true MAGA candidate. Not sure who that would be

I agree and feel that Mike Pence or Tom Cotton would be the most likely candidate in 2024 assuming Trump loses in 2020. As for the candidate from Fox News that would pick up the "MAGA" banner, I would say that either Jeanine Pirro, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin, Steve Doocy, Brian Kilmeade, or Pete Hegseth would make sense, though I don't think that they would have any chance to win the Republican nomination.

In addition to what everyone else said, some currently unknown person elected Governor or Senator in 2020 or 2022 will be in the race.

Pat Toomey -- strongly supported by those who want a plutocratic America.

I wouldn't rule out that Donald Trump runs again.

I've said this before, I think it's a possibility but he'd be pretty old by 2024

I don't know who the nominee will be, but I can guarantee you one thing: The GOP will spend the next 20 years trying to replicate Trump.

Sad, really. A man who couldn't even win a popular plurality has the party in a iron grip. A movement whose entire political philosophy can be summed up with the phrase "f**k your feelings." That's the GOP now.

It won't work because...

• Only Trump is Trump
• The conditions of 2016 will never be repeated
• Demographic changes will make what was already a long shot in 2016 an impossibility.

I suppose it will be fun seeing someone like Tom Cotton try to be edgy and transgressional on the campaign trail and in debates. He'll just look pathetic. As strong as my loathing of Donald Trump has been for the last 30+ years, I have to hand it to him: he's really the only person for whom this works.

Here's all the GOP candidates that would run if Trump lost his re election (Ranked from best to worst chance at the nomination)



1. Ted Cruz
2. Ron DeSantis If re elected in 2022
3. Nikki Haley
4. Matt Bevin
5. Greg Abbott
6. Rand Paul
7. Mark Green (If either elected to the U.S Senate or keeps his congressional seat)
8. Rick Scott
9. Mitt Romney Vows to serve only 1 term, unlikely to win the nomination
10. Donald Trump Unlikely to win the nomination again after losing re election in 2020
11. Charlie Baker

I'd give better than even odds that it's either Cotton or Carlson and they try to double down on Trumpism.

Tom Cotton has been preparing for this for most of his life.
Ted Cruz ^as above
Marco Rubio ^as above
Rick Scott
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Ben Carson (more as one last book tour - though I think with his cabinet experience he could be a VP prospect)
Mike Pence - as an ex VP he’d probably start as the front runner due to name recognition, but I’m not convinced of his campaigning abilities
Tim Scott
Larry Hogan/Phil Scott (one last ride of the New England Moderates)
Mike Braun (I could see him trying to be the heir to Trumpism)
Mike Pompeo - definitely wants it, though I wonder what profile he’d have after 4 years out of office if he doesn’t run for the Senate in 2020
Rick Santorum - he was definitely planning to run again in 2020 prior to Trump winning.
Paul Ryan - he’d probably not have much chance but I’d be surprised if he never runs for President
Dan Crenshaw - can be a kind of moderate hero
Doug Ducey
Josh Hawley

I’d have said Joni Ernst, but her messy personal life means she might decide it’s not worth it.

Sacrificial lambs Ron DeSantis, Josh Hawley, and Paul Ryan