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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election Predictions => Topic started by: UWS on November 29, 2018, 09:06:00 am



Title: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: UWS on November 29, 2018, 09:06:00 am
Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: President Biden on November 29, 2018, 10:42:34 am
()

KY could really go either way due to Bevin's unpopularity but the partisanship of the state makes me think he'll narrowly hold on. Edwards should be fine in LA, unless Kennedy runs. MS is a pure tossup, but the weakness of the potential GOP nominees and the close Special election results make me think its a Democratic pickup.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Xing on November 29, 2018, 12:16:14 pm
Usual words of caution about how early it is apply.

KY: Safe R, Bevin wins by 10-15%.
LA: Lean D, Edwards wins by 4-6%
MS: Toss-Up, the Republican wins by 2-5%


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Strong Candidate on November 29, 2018, 05:33:37 pm
Kentucky: Bevin +9 (political trends since 2015 counterbalancing his unpopularity and the more Democratic environment)
Louisiana: R +8 if Kennedy runs, a near-perfect tie if the Republican nominee is anyone else.
Mississippi: R+2


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on December 04, 2018, 05:09:29 pm
Beasher wins 51-49 in KY
JBE wins 51-49 avoid runoff in LA

Reeves wins 55-45 in MS

()

2019-2020


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Jon Tester on December 06, 2018, 05:55:57 pm
Ky: Bevin by 13

Ms: Hood by 1

La: Edwards by 5


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on December 10, 2018, 09:13:12 am
KY: Bevin +2-4
LA: Bel Edwards +10-15 (first round)
MS: Hood +1-3


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on December 12, 2018, 03:20:18 pm
MS is the most GOP nation at large, and R's should be able to win that, the very least


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: smoltchanov on December 17, 2018, 09:44:53 am
MS is the most GOP nation at large, and R's should be able to win that, the very least

Surely no. Wyoming is much more Republican, for example. And not only Wyoming. Now, probably, even West Virginia is more Republican.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Delegate Jayde on December 17, 2018, 06:19:22 pm
Dems win Louisiana comfortably, lose Kentucky narrowly, and lose Mississippi by about 5 to 10.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: brucejoel99 on December 23, 2018, 08:11:36 am
KY: Bevin +2-4
LA: Bel Edwards +4-6
MS: Hood +1-3


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Peanut on December 23, 2018, 11:55:38 am
KY: Strong Likely R, not Safe because nothing's Safe this far out, but close to it.

LA: Lean D, could move to Likely.

MS: Tossup, I'd say Hood pulls it out.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: smoltchanov on December 25, 2018, 04:26:15 am
Right now: (i stress these words as strongly as possible)

KY: Likely R
LA: Lean D
MS: Tilt R


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Tender Branson on December 25, 2018, 04:33:38 am
Zell am See mayor & city council (March 2019): Strong ÷VP

EU election (May 2019): Strong ÷VP

Vorarlberg state election (September 2019): Strong ÷VP


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: President Pericles on December 26, 2018, 03:13:22 am
LA-Bel Edwards +2
MS-Reeves +4
KY-Bevin +8



Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: 538Electoral on December 26, 2018, 05:23:10 am
Kentucky and Mississippi both Lean R, Louisiana I think is Lean D at the moment.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: pops on December 26, 2018, 06:53:09 pm
MS R+8
KY R+7
LA R+3

But this could change easily.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Del Tachi on December 27, 2018, 03:25:42 pm
()


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Trump Is Not A Successful Businessman on December 27, 2018, 03:37:40 pm
Kentucky Bevin 50% Beshear 47%
Louisiana Abraham 51% Edwards 48%
Mississippi Reeves 52% Hood 46%


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 27, 2018, 06:19:08 pm

Looks like youíre predicting a Hood win. And your KY map is probably more realistic than a lot of the other delusions about this race that people have on here, but I would still give the Dem Franklin County.
Democrats picked up 8 seats in the KY state senate where Trump won 80%+. Clearly some backlash against levin. I'd at least flip Rowan and maybe Eliott


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Lechasseur on December 27, 2018, 10:21:58 pm

This


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: NewYorkExpress on December 28, 2018, 12:21:20 am
Kentucky: Matt Bevin (R) 48%, Andy Beshear 47.9%

Mississippi: Tate Reeves (R) 50.9%, Jim Hood (D) 48.4%

Louisiana: John Bel Edwards (D) 52% (avoids runoff), Ralph Abraham (R) 37%, Eddie Rispone (R) 10%


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Flyersfan232 on December 30, 2018, 10:20:42 pm
Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
republican sweep


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: brucejoel99 on December 31, 2018, 02:24:09 pm
Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
republican sweep

Nah, Edwards is fine in LA, esp. considering Kennedy chose not to run


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: YourLocalKiwiGay on February 04, 2019, 01:52:52 am
I am ready to be disappointed already. But Brashear and Hood may put up a fight until Trump makes his trip down south, flails his arms and says some names and puts away any chance the democrat had of winning because heck! Why think for yourself?


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Trump Is Not A Successful Businessman on February 04, 2019, 11:49:31 am
I am ready to be disappointed already. But Brashear and Hood may put up a fight until Trump makes his trip down south, flails his arms and says some names and puts away any chance the democrat had of winning because heck! Why think for yourself?

I agree except I feel Trump will doom Edwards as well.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on February 05, 2019, 06:01:25 pm
Bold prediction: Dems sweep, Beshear, Hood & JBE will wim


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: DaWN on February 06, 2019, 01:13:41 pm
KY: Likely R, Bevin by 10
LA: Lean D, Edwards by 5
MS: Tossup, Reeves by 2


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MAGugh on February 07, 2019, 10:15:37 pm
Kentucky - Flips blue. Probably Beshear.

Louisiana - Stays blue. Bel Edwards wins by a slim 3-5 percent, but I could see this seat getting flipped red.

Mississippi - Tate Reeves wins the GOP primary, with an insurgent Lumumba upsetting Hood in the Democratic primary; and pulling off the upset against Reeves as well - flipping Mississipi by a slim margin and making history.

Chicago - Amara Enyia

Tampa Bay - David Straz

Phoenix - Kate Gallego


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: DPKdebator on February 12, 2019, 10:04:24 am
As of right now I'd say that Mississippi and Kentucky vote Republican, while Louisiana votes Democratic.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: smoltchanov on February 19, 2019, 10:12:44 am
As of right now I'd say that Mississippi and Kentucky vote Republican, while Louisiana votes Democratic.

The same. But only "as of right now"....


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Lucas Whitefur on February 22, 2019, 10:05:25 am
I think that JBE will lose by mid-single digits. I think that Beshear and Hood will both appear to be running close with Bevin and Reeves, respectively, but eventually they'll go into free-fall and lose by double digits.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: smoltchanov on February 22, 2019, 10:49:49 am
I think that JBE will lose by mid-single digits. I think that Beshear and Hood will both appear to be running close with Bevin and Reeves, respectively, but eventually they'll go into free-fall and lose by double digits.

Prediction of faithful Republican conservative)))))))


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019 on February 24, 2019, 02:37:04 pm
Louisiana:

Rep. Ralph Abrahan: 50.9%
Gov. John Bel Edwards: 46.5%


Kentucky:
Gov. Matt Bevin: 53%
Attorney General Andy Beshear: 46%

Mississippi

Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves: 56%
Attorney General Jim Hood: 42%


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on March 18, 2019, 06:44:46 pm
Governorships:

MS (Open): Toss-Up. I'd like to see Hood pull this off considering the MS Dems last won the MS Governor's Mansion in 1999 when then-LG Ross Musgrove (D) won the Governorship, only to lose reelection in 2003.

KY: Bevin wins reelection easily over Baby Beshear (56% to 41%).

LA: JBE wins without a Runoff: 57% of the statewide vote. Big question is whether the LA Dems make gains on down-ballot contests considering the other down-ballot statewide offices won't be contested.

Mayoral Contests:

Houston, TX: 50-to-50% possibility embattled incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) misses the Runoff; Bill King (R) & Tony Buzbee (D ? or R ?) stand possible shot at being Houston's 63rd Mayor.

There's still backlash against Turner over his disastrous handling over Proposition B & the HFD Firefighters Union, etc., who cannot stand him.

San Francisco ,CA: Breed wins 1st full 4-year term in November & she's eligible for a 2nd full 4-year term in 2023, which could give her close to 9 1/2 years.

Denver, CO: Incumbent Mayor Michael Hancock (D) wins 3rd consecutive term despite some controversies.

San Antonio, TX: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Fort Worth, TX: Price (R) wins 5th term.

Dallas, TX (Open): This might go to a Runoff.

Arlington, TX: Williams (R) wins reelection.

Charlotte, NC: Interesting to see if Lyles seeks another term in office.

Chicago, IL (Open): Lightfoot wins easily in the Runoff barring something crazy between now & April 2nd.





Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on May 15, 2019, 05:57:31 pm
()

S-DEL Carney inc
T-IN Holcomb inc
P-KY Beshear
P-LA JBE

T-MS Reeves
T-MO Parson inc
T-MT Fox

cc-NH Sununu inc
P-NC Cooper inc
T-ND Burgam inc
T-UT open
cc-VT Phil Scott inc

S-WA open
T-WVA Justice


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Frťmont Speaker Oregon Blue Dog on May 19, 2019, 07:08:03 pm
I don't have much faith in the Democrats's ability to win in deep red states. Still, Hood is a strong candidate. I think Bel Edwards will narrowly pull out the win, while Hood will lose by around 3-5 points. Bevin will probably get reelected by around 8-11 points.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on May 20, 2019, 02:59:23 pm
If Dems win either MS or KY and keep LA, the governor make-up will remain the same, due to fact, Dems will ultimately lose MT.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LiberalDem19 on May 20, 2019, 04:13:04 pm
All three go Republican. Let's be honest here.

We heard in 2014 that McConnell was vulnerable, and Kentucky still voted for him in a landslide.
Southern Whites will vote Republican again, so Louisiana and Mississippi will go red. Bel Edwards isn't even a strong candidate, he only won because Vitter had a weird fetish. And Mississippi, they voted for a woman who joked about lynching.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 21, 2019, 04:35:37 pm
Republicans sweep all three races in a landslide as polarization (which has never been higher before in the history of this country) and the partisan lean of these deep red states prevail. Also, Trump rallies, Trump endorsements, Trump approval, and 2018 was a D+9 year.

KY: Bevin 62.52%, Democratic nominee 32.68% (SAFE R)
LA: Abraham 58.09%, JBE 38.45% (SAFE R)
MS: Reeves 57.86%, Hood 40.06% (SAFE R)

Are JBE and Hood Strong Candidates? Yes, but they have a (D) next to their name, and thatís all that matters.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Old School Republican on May 21, 2019, 04:56:19 pm
Republicans sweep all three races in a landslide as polarization (which has never been higher before in the history of this country) and the partisan lean of these deep red states prevail. Also, Trump rallies, Trump endorsements, Trump approval, and 2018 was a D+9 year.

KY: Bevin 62.52%, Democratic nominee 32.68% (SAFE R)
LA: Abraham 58.09%, JBE 38.45% (SAFE R)
MS: Reeves 57.86%, Hood 40.06% (SAFE R)

Are JBE and Hood Strong Candidates? Yes, but they have a (D) next to their name, and thatís all that matters.


Why do you like to mock the term polarization so much(Which when we talk about mostly talk about it for Presidential, Senate and House ones more than State ones)


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 21, 2019, 08:35:48 pm
MS: GOP Hold.

KY: GOP Hold.

LA: DEM Hold with JBE winning by double digits with 57% & all of the doubters need to STFU.

Dallas, TX Mayor: Johnson wins the Runoff.

San Antonio, TX Mayor: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Houston, TX Mayor: King (R) or Buzbee (D/R) defeat Turner.

San Francisco, CA Mayor: Breed wins election to full 4-year term.

VA State Senate: DEM Pick-Up barring crazy Northam-like scandals.



Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019 on May 25, 2019, 04:17:18 pm
Mississippi

Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves: 56%
Attorney General Jim Hood: 42%



This is beyond absurd.

Anyway, I'm extremely pessimistic about the south, but in the end I think at least one of Hood or JBE will *get more votes than* their Republican opponents. In the event that it's Hood, the courts will probably turn around and steal his win from him. I'd love to be proven wrong and all three of Hood, JBE and Beshear win.

Democrats easily pick up the Virginia legislature though.

That post so also from February

VA legislature flips

All three governor seats are R

LA by about 2-3 points
MS by 6-8


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019 on May 25, 2019, 04:19:58 pm
Read the new post


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: President Biden on May 27, 2019, 08:00:58 am
KY: Bevin wins by 2
LA: Edwards wins by 9
MS: Reeves wins by 4

VA Senate: Democrats pickup 7 (OPEN), 10 (Sturtevant), 12 (Dunnavant), 13 (OPEN)
VA House: Democrats pickup 28 (OPEN), 40 (Hugo), 76 (Jones), 91 (OPEN), 94 (Yancey)


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on May 27, 2019, 01:15:38 pm
Beshear wins by 2 50/48
JBE avoids run-off wins 57/43
Reeves wins should Hood get under 50%


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 29, 2019, 10:53:21 am
Sounds like the VA Dems will regain both chambers of the VA General Assembly for the first time since the early 1990s ?


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on May 29, 2019, 11:21:17 pm
VA Dems get back both houses of the General Assembly, both House and Senate were Likely D even before the Court imposed new maps. Safe D

Louisiana might move to Likely D since Edwards remains personally popular. He may be able to avoid a run-off

Mississippi is Lean R because of course they've got an electoral college down there. I find it hard to see how Hood manages a majority, especially looking at the handful of polling that's been released so far

Kentucky is a pure toss-up imo. Bevin is clearly damaged and Beshear should do a lot better than Conway.

Now let's see just hope Trump doesn't make these races Titanium R by virtue of showing up and tossing a Bounty paper towel roll or 2 into the crowds



Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 04, 2019, 03:37:42 pm
VA Dems get back both houses of the General Assembly, both House and Senate were Likely D even before the Court imposed new maps. Safe D

Louisiana might move to Likely D since Edwards remains personally popular. He may be able to avoid a run-off

Mississippi is Lean R because of course they've got an electoral college down there. I find it hard to see how Hood manages a majority, especially looking at the handful of polling that's been released so far

Kentucky is a pure toss-up imo. Bevin is clearly damaged and Beshear should do a lot better than Conway.

Now let's see just hope Trump doesn't make these races Titanium R by virtue of showing up and tossing a Bounty paper towel roll or 2 into the crowds



MS: God just doesn't like the MS Dems down there for some reason & you're right about Hood needs to get over 50% to avoid facing the MS State Legislature, who decides who gets to move into the MS Governor's Mansion.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on June 05, 2019, 01:37:38 am
MS: God just doesn't like the MS Dems down there for some reason & you're right about Hood needs to get over 50% to avoid facing the MS State Legislature, who decides who gets to move into the MS Governor's Mansion.

I find it hard to believe there hasnít been a constitutional challenge to this system. Might be a standing issue since I donít think thereís been a Gov candidate whoís lost just because of it, Musgrove won the popular vote and the backing of the then Democratic legislature the last time it was invoked.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: President Biden on June 05, 2019, 06:44:03 am
MS: God just doesn't like the MS Dems down there for some reason & you're right about Hood needs to get over 50% to avoid facing the MS State Legislature, who decides who gets to move into the MS Governor's Mansion.

I find it hard to believe there hasnít been a constitutional challenge to this system. Might be a standing issue since I donít think thereís been a Gov candidate whoís lost just because of it, Musgrove won the popular vote and the backing of the then Democratic legislature the last time it was invoked.
There's already been a lawsuit filed against it.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 05, 2019, 03:41:26 pm
How did the lawsuit turn out ?


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on June 07, 2019, 12:51:52 am
MS is a red state, it won't be changed


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Ilhan Apologist on June 07, 2019, 12:45:39 pm
MS: God just doesn't like the MS Dems down there for some reason & you're right about Hood needs to get over 50% to avoid facing the MS State Legislature, who decides who gets to move into the MS Governor's Mansion.

I find it hard to believe there hasnít been a constitutional challenge to this system. Might be a standing issue since I donít think thereís been a Gov candidate whoís lost just because of it, Musgrove won the popular vote and the backing of the then Democratic legislature the last time it was invoked.
There's already been a lawsuit filed against it.

So John Roberts has the final say?


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 07, 2019, 02:25:03 pm
Denver, CO Mayor: Hancock will win reelection to 3rd & final term easily.



Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: President Biden on June 07, 2019, 05:10:36 pm
Denver, CO Mayor: Hancock will win reelection to 3rd & final term easily.


He already did


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 07, 2019, 05:13:00 pm
Denver, CO Mayor: Hancock will win reelection to 3rd & final term easily.


He already did

Oops!

Dallas & San Antonio have Mayoral Runoffs.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 07, 2019, 05:33:33 pm
First round of predictions:

Lousiana:

Abraham unseats Edwards in a runoff 52-48

Mississippi:

Reeves beats Hood back 54-45

Kentucky:

Bevin beats Beshear back 52-46


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: ElectionAtlas on June 10, 2019, 09:19:03 pm
The 2019 Gubernatorial Prediction script is now live at: Link (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2019/pred.php)
Enjoy,
Dave


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Xing on June 10, 2019, 10:27:19 pm
Sweet!


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 11, 2019, 03:01:42 pm
First round of predictions:

Lousiana:

Abraham unseats Edwards in a runoff 52-48

Mississippi:

Reeves beats Hood back 54-45

Kentucky:

Bevin beats Beshear back 52-46

OMG. You're such a pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection by double digits, 57% to 42%.

MS: Might go to the MS State Legislature if nobody gets the necessary 50%.

KY: Who knows. Crazy things have happened.

Houston, TX Mayor: December Runoff & with Boykins jumping in, he's going to cut into Turner's coalition of African Americans, Latinos, Asian/Pacific Islanders, etc., guaranteeing Buzbee or King advance to the Runoff.

I should note that Buzbee is running TV Advertising all over the place & considering he served on the Texas A&M University System Board of Regents & in the United States Marine Corps.

King needs to up his game.

San Francisco, CA Mayor: Breed wins election to a full 4-year term, hopefully by double digits & with 56+%.

VA State Senate & VA House of Delegates flip Blue.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Peter Moon on October 22, 2019, 12:14:51 pm
Mississippi
I believe Mississippi is basically Ohio right now. There is a chance a Democrat could win it, but that chance is very small. There need to be several factors that ensure a Democratic upset there:
1. The Republicans/Republican supporters/voters need to either not vote for their candidate or not vote at all. This could result in an upset.
2. Democratic support: The Democratic candidate needs to appeal to more people than his party is right now. Mississippi isnít just filled with ďracist southernersĒ. The Democrat needs to galvanize more support, or he needs to draw support from his Republican opponent.
3. Lower turnout: This goes into 1, but itís a fact. Turnout can decide an election no matter what other factors are at play. LA almost could have gone red if all Republicans who voted went for a single candidate instead of splitting the vote in half. If Democrats want to win a state like Mississippi, they need to get out their base to vote.

Overall, I think this state has very little chance of flipping.

Louisiana
Louisiana almost went Red this last election. Edwards only avoided being thrown out because the Republicans split their vote. If every Republican were to vote for Eddie on their next election night and didnít care about political differences, the state has a large if not certain chance of going red. Edwards could get his support up though, and that is seemingly unlikely to happen. He got nearly 9 or so less points this election around, which is a very large drop in voter support. If one wants to argue how this election favored Republicans, then letís discuss that:
1. Date/Time: The election was held on a weekend, the day most if not all working people have off. If this election were held on a weekday, the argument of ďvoter suppressionĒ would hold more ground.
2. Candidate choice: Democrats seemed to unify behind Edwards more than any other candidate, so the argument that other Dems and third party voters are to blame for a loss is very loose, since the total combined vote of non-Edwards candidates (excluding the Republicans) is about 1.6-1.7, which was not enough for an Edwards victory after adding that.
3. Next Date/Time: From what Iíve heard, the next election will be held in November. If this is true, and it is held on Election Day, then there is little probabilities that Edwards will win a high amount of support. The whole reason Democrats complain about elections is that they supposedly donít help young people with the laws in place and other attributes. So, if their argument is to be believed, then yes, a Republican victory is most certainly probable. Still a little unlikely, but definitely a possibility.

Kentucky

While Bevin seems quite unpopular, I think that the state itself isnít trending blue. Yes, an unpopular governor can affect support, but tell that to Oregon and Wisconsin. Both Governors werenít the most popular, but that didnít mean a complete upset. Walker lost in WI mainly because of a lack of turnout by Republicans or even flips by those Republican voters. Oregon still elected another Democrat despite the governor having lower support. Support in the KY race may be a good prediction tool, but it is not going to determine the outcome.
Another myth some may come up with is that ďbecause liberal states elect Republicans, conservative states can elect DemocratsĒ. There is a problem with this argument. The idea that liberal states elect Republicans is a true statement one can make, but one needs to know what kind of candidates these are. Charlie Baker, Mitt Romney, and Bill Weld were all governors of the extremely liberal Massachusetts. All three are more liberal Republicans: I canít say on Baker, but both Romney and Weld do not support Trump and have espoused more liberal ideas in the past, a good representation of this is ďRomney CareĒ, which was either modeled after Obama care, or got based off of by Obama care (Obama modeled his plan). A better example of how this statement could be confused as working either way is George Pataki of New York and the new Governor of Kansas (I donít know their name). Both ran in opposite ďparty strongholdĒ states. New York hasnít gone Republican in a Presidential election since 1984, when Reagan ran for re-election. Same goes for Kansas. The state hasnít gone Democrat since 1964, and has been reliably Republican ever since. However, both elected opposite-party Governors. Why? Well, two possible ideas could be made.
1. Weak opponents: In 2018, the Democrat running for governor got 48 to 42 percent of the vote, achieving a 6 point victory. Kobach lost by over 6 points, which were ironically made up by a strong 3rd party. In 1998, Pataki won election to New York Governor with over 50% of the vote. Many factors could explain his win, but a contested race isnít one of them. Adding all non-Pataki votes still ended in a decisive victory, unlike the Kansas race in 2018. A stronger GOP could be to blame for a Democratic loss, but in New York? Iím not so sure thatís the real story.
Thatís why I think Bevin will probably win re-election, however narrow that margin is.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Peter Moon on October 22, 2019, 12:16:13 pm
Mississippi
I believe Mississippi is basically Ohio right now. There is a chance a Democrat could win it, but that chance is very small. There need to be several factors that ensure a Democratic upset there:
1. The Republicans/Republican supporters/voters need to either not vote for their candidate or not vote at all. This could result in an upset.
2. Democratic support: The Democratic candidate needs to appeal to more people than his party is right now. Mississippi isnít just filled with ďracist southernersĒ. The Democrat needs to galvanize more support, or he needs to draw support from his Republican opponent.
3. Lower turnout: This goes into 1, but itís a fact. Turnout can decide an election no matter what other factors are at play. LA almost could have gone red if all Republicans who voted went for a single candidate instead of splitting the vote in half. If Democrats want to win a state like Mississippi, they need to get out their base to vote.

Overall, I think this state has very little chance of flipping.

Louisiana
Louisiana almost went Red this last election. Edwards only avoided being thrown out because the Republicans split their vote. If every Republican were to vote for Eddie on their next election night and didnít care about political differences, the state has a large if not certain chance of going red. Edwards could get his support up though, and that is seemingly unlikely to happen. He got nearly 9 or so less points this election around, which is a very large drop in voter support. If one wants to argue how this election favored Republicans, then letís discuss that:
1. Date/Time: The election was held on a weekend, the day most if not all working people have off. If this election were held on a weekday, the argument of ďvoter suppressionĒ would hold more ground.
2. Candidate choice: Democrats seemed to unify behind Edwards more than any other candidate, so the argument that other Dems and third party voters are to blame for a loss is very loose, since the total combined vote of non-Edwards candidates (excluding the Republicans) is about 1.6-1.7, which was not enough for an Edwards victory after adding that.
3. Next Date/Time: From what Iíve heard, the next election will be held in November. If this is true, and it is held on Election Day, then there is little probabilities that Edwards will win a high amount of support. The whole reason Democrats complain about elections is that they supposedly donít help young people with the laws in place and other attributes. So, if their argument is to be believed, then yes, a Republican victory is most certainly probable. Still a little unlikely, but definitely a possibility.

Kentucky

While Bevin seems quite unpopular, I think that the state itself isnít trending blue. Yes, an unpopular governor can affect support, but tell that to Oregon and Wisconsin. Both Governors werenít the most popular, but that didnít mean a complete upset. Walker lost in WI mainly because of a lack of turnout by Republicans or even flips by those Republican voters. Oregon still elected another Democrat despite the governor having lower support. Support in the KY race may be a good prediction tool, but it is not going to determine the outcome.
Another myth some may come up with is that ďbecause liberal states elect Republicans, conservative states can elect DemocratsĒ. There is a problem with this argument. The idea that liberal states elect Republicans is a true statement one can make, but one needs to know what kind of candidates these are. Charlie Baker, Mitt Romney, and Bill Weld were all governors of the extremely liberal Massachusetts. All three are more liberal Republicans: I canít say on Baker, but both Romney and Weld do not support Trump and have espoused more liberal ideas in the past, a good representation of this is ďRomney CareĒ, which was either modeled after Obama care, or got based off of by Obama care (Obama modeled his plan). A better example of how this statement could be confused as working either way is George Pataki of New York and the new Governor of Kansas (I donít know their name). Both ran in opposite ďparty strongholdĒ states. New York hasnít gone Republican in a Presidential election since 1984, when Reagan ran for re-election. Same goes for Kansas. The state hasnít gone Democrat since 1964, and has been reliably Republican ever since. However, both elected opposite-party Governors. Why? Well, two possible ideas could be made.
1. Weak opponents: In 2018, the Democrat running for governor got 48 to 42 percent of the vote, achieving a 6 point victory. Kobach lost by over 6 points, which were ironically made up by a strong 3rd party. In 1998, Pataki won election to New York Governor with over 50% of the vote. Many factors could explain his win, but a contested race isnít one of them. Adding all non-Pataki votes still ended in a decisive victory, unlike the Kansas race in 2018. A stronger GOP could be to blame for a Democratic loss, but in New York? Iím not so sure thatís the real story.
Thatís why I think Bevin will probably win re-election, however narrow that margin is.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Thegreatwar18 on November 05, 2019, 10:34:13 pm
So Matt Bevin lost by 0.4, even after the trump rally. #SAD


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MR. KAYNE WEST on November 07, 2019, 08:39:29 am
Pence would only be a good public servant, as a Prez, Pence being Veep, doesnt serve him and makes his presence unknowm.