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Title: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 01:12:02 AM This page is for all federal election discussion. Feel free to use other megathreads, but this is a general purpose thread.
Links: https://gizmodo.com/how-to-watch-the-midterm-election-coverage-live-on-yout-1830222190 http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2018/11/01/cnn-to-live-stream-midterm-election-night-coverage/ (no cable provider required for CNN's election night live stream apparently) https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ -------- New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306940.0 Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 01:17:23 AM Hype!
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 01:18:26 AM ()
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 01:20:28 AM Atlas in roughly 15 hours:
() Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 06, 2018, 01:22:56 AM Since traffic on this site has been especially high this year, I fully expect it to crash tomorrow night.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 01:23:48 AM Atlas in roughly 15 hours: https://i.imgur.com/Pc6zVtG.gif You've got it all wrong: () In seriousness, I think you or some other mod mentioned that you might close off Atlas only to people who are registered to try to stop it from crashing? If so that would be nice if possible to somehow limit the server load enough. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 01:25:47 AM In seriousness, I think you or some other mod mentioned that you might close off Atlas only to people who are registered to try to stop it from crashing? If so that would be nice if possible to somehow limit the server load enough. Yes. I sent Dave some changes tonight. If he does them all you should notice some differences, besides members only. No search, no "new reply" warning when you click Post, small other things. I think it'll be enough. I hope so anyway! Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: America Needs R'hllor on November 06, 2018, 02:04:21 AM In seriousness, I think you or some other mod mentioned that you might close off Atlas only to people who are registered to try to stop it from crashing? If so that would be nice if possible to somehow limit the server load enough. Yes. I sent Dave some changes tonight. If he does them all you should notice some differences, besides members only. No search, no "new reply" warning when you click Post, small other things. I think it'll be enough. I hope so anyway! Good luck! Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: musicblind on November 06, 2018, 02:40:02 AM I'm so mad I have a figure skating test tomorrow evening. I won't get home until around 8 pm. I'll miss the first returns! Argh!
*shakes fist* This is our superbowl. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 05:23:24 AM Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator! Have fun :) Quote Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate] Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cg41386 on November 06, 2018, 05:50:18 AM About to go vote bright and early in New Jersey. Menendez, even though I don’t particularly like him.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Illini on November 06, 2018, 06:50:04 AM Going to vote in 10 minutes when the polls open at 6am. Good luck everybody - here's to a big day for the Dems!
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cg41386 on November 06, 2018, 07:16:39 AM There were already at least 15 people there when I voted around 6:15. We don’t even have any really competitive races on the ballot. I guess maybe it’s the school board drawing the attention.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tartarus Sauce on November 06, 2018, 07:19:30 AM Today's gonna be good, fam.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on November 06, 2018, 07:55:19 AM MSNBC says people are worried about Tester? What's going on?
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Baki on November 06, 2018, 08:07:41 AM Nothing, people are voting. Whatever happens, happens.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 96FJV on November 06, 2018, 08:09:45 AM Voted early, donated to Gillum, O'Rourke, and my senator Warren this cycle. Really hoping for a good night for Dems. Regardless of party, get out and vote today guys. The power is in your hands.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 08:20:34 AM My brother's fiancée voted in a downtown Madison, Wisconsin precinct (off-campus student housing) at 7:05. She was already voter #143.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 08:29:52 AM In seriousness, I think you or some other mod mentioned that you might close off Atlas only to people who are registered to try to stop it from crashing? If so that would be nice if possible to somehow limit the server load enough. Yes. I sent Dave some changes tonight. If he does them all you should notice some differences, besides members only. No search, no "new reply" warning when you click Post, small other things. I think it'll be enough. I hope so anyway! Thanks, this is really annoying on election day since it often takes several tries due to warning. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:34:03 AM Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Win link=topic=306007.msg6514060#msg6514060 date=1541485428 In seriousness, I think you or some other mod mentioned that you might close off Atlas only to people who are registered to try to stop it from crashing? If so that would be nice if possible to somehow limit the server load enough. Yes. I sent Dave some changes tonight. If he does them all you should notice some differences, besides members only. No search, no "new reply" warning when you click Post, small other things. I think it'll be enough. I hope so anyway! Thanks, this is really annoying on election day since it often takes several tries due to warning. You can disable it all the time in your profile under look/layout preferences. I keep it disabled all the time. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xeuma on November 06, 2018, 08:35:11 AM I made a spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JfmWRnS-VdLyIUImc7xuoCCHpb1g2Ao4oyKfDRAJdf4/edit#gid=571335649 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JfmWRnS-VdLyIUImc7xuoCCHpb1g2Ao4oyKfDRAJdf4/edit#gid=571335649) Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 09:00:22 AM Per a FB friend in Hamilton County, Indiana (the wealthiest and most educated county in the state):
"Hamilton County early voting: 32,844. Mailed-in absentee ballots: 9,777. Over 23,000 voted in person already today." Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:05:08 AM Just voted.
It looked like 2012 in terms of lines here. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:18:30 AM MSNBC says people are worried about Tester? What's going on? Everything I see on Twitter is from Breitbart. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 09:27:31 AM MSNBC says people are worried about Tester? What's going on? Everything I see on Twitter is from Breitbart. Ugh. Breitbots are the worst. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: bilaps on November 06, 2018, 09:30:17 AM Anyone with some high quality CNN, MSNBC, FNC streams for people abroad?
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: jman123 on November 06, 2018, 09:31:22 AM I voted 8 30 AM in my precinct. I was no 62. Checking in from NJ. I have a hunch people are voting Menendez despite not liking him because they dislike Trump even more.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 09:47:55 AM Falls Church, VA is already at 39% turnout.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2018, 09:48:51 AM Falls Church, VA is already at 39% turnout. But it’s in NoVA and... and it’s raining? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 06, 2018, 09:49:13 AM At about 8:00, I passed by the church that serves my precinct. The parking spaces looked packed. Didn’t see an empty spot. I didn’t see the line though.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 09:50:25 AM I am in line to vote at my precinct in Brooklyn. It’s one of the only precincts in NYC where Jill Stein beat Donald Trump, to give a sense of the politics. Easily over an hour line, mostly outdoors in the light rain and well after rush hour. I’ve never seen it like this; the line was much shorter at the same time in 2016. That said, we have no real competitive elections on the ballot beyond city initiatives, which I have to guess are not driving voters to the polls.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 06, 2018, 09:53:54 AM I'm a pollworker at my local precinct and the line has been steady for the entire 3 hours we've been open.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: psychprofessor on November 06, 2018, 09:54:15 AM Anecdotally, turnout in NJ way up.
Emily C. Singer Verified account @CahnEmily Follow Follow @CahnEmily More My parents have lived in our suburban NJ town for 25 years. This was the first year ever they had a line to vote. #NJ11 Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 09:56:13 AM I'm a pollworker at my local precinct and the line has been steady for the entire 3 hours we've been open. Where do you live in Michigan? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 10:13:35 AM 538 liveblog is up: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 10:13:57 AM This is encouraging:
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 06, 2018, 10:16:45 AM If any Florida political veterans can help me out, do dems typically vote after work? ie will GOP margins in certain counties increase? My county (Pinellas) saw a surge of early morning GOP voters. I'm wondering if that'll continue throughout the day or if Dems will chip away at it as the day goes on?
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MadmanMotley on November 06, 2018, 10:20:23 AM Voted at 9am, had to wait 20 min in a rural area, longest lines I've ever seen. Coworker had to wait 45min to vote.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 10:26:29 AM If any Florida political veterans can help me out, do dems typically vote after work? ie will GOP margins in certain counties increase? My county (Pinellas) saw a surge of early morning GOP voters. I'm wondering if that'll continue throughout the day or if Dems will chip away at it as the day goes on? Source? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 06, 2018, 10:28:46 AM If any Florida political veterans can help me out, do dems typically vote after work? ie will GOP margins in certain counties increase? My county (Pinellas) saw a surge of early morning GOP voters. I'm wondering if that'll continue throughout the day or if Dems will chip away at it as the day goes on? Source? I'm mainly just wondering if Dems win the after work hours vs the morning hours. GOP is expected to outvote dems here in terms of registration (they almost always do sans 2008). Dems, if they win Pinellas, will win due to NPAs. https://www.votepinellas.com/Election-Information/Elections/Current-Upcoming-Elections/2018-General-Election/Voter-Turnout Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 10:31:14 AM Today is going to be a good day for the GOP.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: jman123 on November 06, 2018, 10:31:57 AM Heavy rain in NJ. Will it affect turnout?
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 10:36:05 AM Voted at 9am, had to wait 20 min in a rural area, longest lines I've ever seen. Coworker had to wait 45min to vote. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 10:39:33 AM Heavy rain in NJ. Will it affect turnout? The rain is supposed to be over by 2-3 so it’s only during the lowest-turnout part of the day anyway. Finally voted. 1:15 wait. My precinct had a shorter wait than some others at the same location so some were waiting for closer to 2 hours. The outdoor line was shorter when I left, partially because it was later and partially because light rain had turned into a downpour. Rain should be over by the evening rush, though. Edit: I wrote in Adem Bunkedekko (the narrow primary loser) instead of my congresswoman so won’t count to the national GCB result. Edit2: This is in Brooklyn, if not clear from my previous post. No competitive races here. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 10:40:14 AM Rain reminder
I wish there was a way to sticky this to the top of every page of this thread like on reddit, but, alas. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 10:41:40 AM I voted at around 9:30, and was in and out in 5 minutes. A lot fewer people than 2016 or 2018.
But we have no competitive election on our ballot in SW Virginia. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 10:42:08 AM Heavy rain in NJ. Will it affect turnout? The rain is supposed to be over by 2-3 so it’s only during the lowest-turnout part of the day anyway. Plenty of studies have shown rain only has a miniscule effect on voting, and even smaller effect on partisanship. The times when rain does matter are those where the election doesn't matter, and we already can assume the result. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MadmanMotley on November 06, 2018, 10:43:14 AM Voted at 9am, had to wait 20 min in a rural area, longest lines I've ever seen. Coworker had to wait 45min to vote. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 06, 2018, 10:43:54 AM Would help if those reporting personal impression would indicate where they voted.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 10:45:04 AM Voted at 9am, had to wait 20 min in a rural area, longest lines I've ever seen. Coworker had to wait 45min to vote. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 06, 2018, 10:45:16 AM Would help if those reporting personal impression would indicate where they voted. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 06, 2018, 10:49:02 AM Pretty high turnout in Monroe County Indiana where I voted, it looks like turnout is way up across the entire state
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 06, 2018, 10:49:57 AM Good news for Braun from the reports I've seen. Monitoring Wisconsin turnout on Twitter as well, but no real forecasts either way.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 10:52:00 AM Good news for Braun from the reports I've seen. Monitoring Wisconsin turnout on Twitter as well, but no real forecasts either way. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 10:54:14 AM There isn't really anything wrong with that post.
That being said, I'm not in the mood for you today hofoid, so if you start anything, I'm just going to mute you for 24 hours and be done with it. So go ahead, test me. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 06, 2018, 10:57:46 AM I think the one prediction we can all make in confidence is that this election will set modern records for mid-term turnout
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 10:59:33 AM This thread is going to be awful
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 11:00:34 AM I think the one prediction we can all make in confidence is that this election will set modern records for mid-term turnout That's probably true. It's funny...in the long run, the greatest result of the Trump administration may turn out to be increased engagement in the political process by the American people, especially young people. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 11:05:33 AM 9:30 AM-Phila 11th ward
I was number 38. I generally vote later about 1:30 PM. In a presidential year, we'd get 100-120 by that point. My guess is that if will normal or slightly below normal for a midterm. If there were a strong Republican statewide candidate, I'd be very happy. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 11:28:20 AM Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:
Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin) Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%) Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%) Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%) The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pollster on November 06, 2018, 11:32:05 AM Voted very early this morning for Menendez and Bonnie Watson Coleman in my suburban NJ precinct. Was voter number 42.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 06, 2018, 11:33:12 AM Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live: Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin) Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%) Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%) Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%) The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: JG on November 06, 2018, 11:39:28 AM Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live: Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin) Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%) Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%) Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%) The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types. I might be wrong, but isn't there typically a surge for democrats after 4 pm when people comes back from work? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on November 06, 2018, 11:40:03 AM I voted. Very high turnout in Minneapolis. Had a line, albeit not a very long one for the first time ever in a midterm for me...didn't even in 2016. Voter #457 at 10:27am.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on November 06, 2018, 11:42:14 AM I voted around 7 AM ET here in Brooklyn, NY. My polling place was crowded.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ucscgaldamez1 on November 06, 2018, 11:49:29 AM Light turnout here in CA-25. This is a very democratic area in Lancaster but Democrats don't vote. Katie Hill will need to win Santa Clarita and keep it close in Simi Valley to pull an upset. If she doesn't, Steve Knight wins. I can only report about the turnout here in Lancaster but I did noticed Democrats being competitive in Santa Clarita from talking to friends.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2018, 11:50:01 AM I might be wrong, but isn't there typically a surge for democrats after 4 pm when people comes back from work? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2018, 11:50:48 AM Media reports indicate that turnout is extremely high for a midterm in St. Louis, Kansas City and Springfield.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 11:51:22 AM Media reports indicate that turnout is extremely high for a midterm in St. Louis, Kansas City and Springfield. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 06, 2018, 11:51:39 AM Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live: Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin) Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%) Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%) Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%) The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types. Republicans tend to "win" election day by party ID. And they also vote earlier in the morning and you see more Democrats later in the day, usually after work. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 11:53:18 AM Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live: Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin) Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%) Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%) Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%) The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types. Republicans tend to "win" election day by party ID. And they also vote earlier in the morning and you see more Democrats later in the day, usually after work. Exactly, also Democrats need to win NPA's in order to win. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 11:54:19 AM Light turnout here in CA-25. This is a very democratic area in Lancaster but Democrats don't vote. Katie Hill will need to win Santa Clarita and keep it close in Simi Valley to pull an upset. If she doesn't, Steve Knight wins. I can only report about the turnout here in Lancaster but I did noticed Democrats being competitive in Santa Clarita from talking to friends. I'm not sure how much you can gain from this considering how much of California is now VBM. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on November 06, 2018, 11:55:33 AM NYTimes now considers their individual state result pages an "article" and put up a paywall. The f**k.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 11:56:30 AM NYTimes now considers their individual state result pages an "article" and put up a paywall. The f**k. Yeah, they did the same with their poll result pages. It sucks. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 11:57:38 AM NYTimes now considers their individual state result pages an "article" and put up a paywall. The f**k. Yeah, they did the same with their poll result pages. It sucks. I thought I saw on twitter they are dropping their paywall for tonight. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 06, 2018, 11:59:59 AM No paywall for NYT today, yes.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 12:02:08 PM Happy Election Day! Heading to the polls after work.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 12:08:49 PM It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 12:09:36 PM No paywall for NYT today, yes. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 06, 2018, 12:09:54 PM It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 12:10:41 PM Light turnout here in CA-25. This is a very democratic area in Lancaster but Democrats don't vote. Katie Hill will need to win Santa Clarita and keep it close in Simi Valley to pull an upset. If she doesn't, Steve Knight wins. I can only report about the turnout here in Lancaster but I did noticed Democrats being competitive in Santa Clarita from talking to friends. I'm not sure how much you can gain from this considering how much of California is now VBM. Right; I'd expect on-the-day turnout to seem really low everywhere in California compared to historical patterns for people used to voting in person. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 12:11:59 PM It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff. FF. Thank you for your sacrifice. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DrScholl on November 06, 2018, 12:17:17 PM It is inspiring seeing how voters are risking their lives all over the East Coast, braving the dihydrogen monoxide to vote. Mandela level stuff. Oh noes. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 12:17:57 PM Election Day vote so far:
Brevard: 48.2 R - 29.0 D Duval: 45.4 R - 37.3 D Pasco: 47.8 R - 28.5 D Pinellas: 41.8 R - 33.5 D Pinellas is the only county I could find past data for. In 2016, the final ED distribution was 38.9 R - 32.6 D. If the Dems do better after work hours, the R share might be pretty similar to 2016, while the D share will likely be somewhat higher than 2016 (unless the surge comes from D-voting Indies, in which case we might see close to the same shares as 2016). Pinellas ED vote is currently at 40% of 2016's ED vote. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 12:20:43 PM Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 12:23:55 PM This spreadsheet is tracking FL better than I can: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13UdXilkzGqvvdKBN9Vwe8er64JeycQbLxKGxFy9lTlE/htmlview?sle=true#gid=10992779
Rs are currently running ahead of 2016 in R and swing counties, Ds in most (but not all) D counties. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 06, 2018, 12:26:11 PM I voted about 30 minutes ago was #114. Turnout is looking good in my small precinct.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on November 06, 2018, 12:30:14 PM Parents just voted in Morris County. Dad went straight Republican, Mom went straight Republican as well except for the House, where she voted for Sherrill. They said turnout was pretty light, but it was the middle of the day in a heavily commuter area, so I’d imagine it was heavier earlier in the day and will get busier later.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 06, 2018, 12:35:44 PM No paywall for NYT today, yes. Best thing I’ve read in this thread. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 12:36:18 PM It is 6:30pm here in Austria right now and time for me to go to sleep.
Then I will get up at 1am when the first polls close and stay up the whole night. Anyway, todays CO ballot return update: () Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: bilaps on November 06, 2018, 12:38:49 PM it's at midnight when first polls close if you're in Austria. 6pm eastern.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 12:39:41 PM Heavy rain in NJ. Will it affect turnout? The rain is supposed to be over by 2-3 so it’s only during the lowest-turnout part of the day anyway. Plenty of studies have shown rain only has a miniscule effect on voting, and even smaller effect on partisanship. The times when rain does matter are those where the election doesn't matter, and we already can assume the result. It depends where it is raining. Great weather in a Democratic area and bad weather in a Republican area can easily effect the vote. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on November 06, 2018, 12:41:41 PM decently high turnout here this morning despite pretty severe rain. My town has a population of about 5,100 and I saw about 20-30 people there early this morning which is pretty good tbh
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 12:42:22 PM it's at midnight when first polls close if you're in Austria. 6pm eastern. Only portions of IN and KY close at midnight. Waking up at 1am is better, because some precincts are already counted then. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 12:43:01 PM Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live: Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin) Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%) Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%) Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%) The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types. I might be wrong, but isn't there typically a surge for democrats after 4 pm when people comes back from work? There are generally two periods of heavy voting, in the morning before 9:00 AM and after 4:00 PM. The before 9 crowd are also workers. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SCNCmod on November 06, 2018, 12:43:32 PM Wins by Claire McCaskill & Joe Donnelly would almost make up for the disappointment from 2016. Wins by Claire, Joe, Bredesen, and Beto ... would definitely make up for the disappointment from 2016.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 12:46:18 PM Good Night !
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 12:55:48 PM Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 12:56:54 PM Good news for the Dems in FL is that Panhandle turnout is quite low so far, especially in the most hurricane-damaged counties.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 06, 2018, 01:11:14 PM Good news for the Dems in FL is that Panhandle turnout is quite low so far, especially in the most hurricane-damaged counties. That's a shame. I'm a Democrat and I want everyone to vote, win or lose. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 01:13:52 PM How are the races in KY and IN going to be reported this year? I know in presidential years that they both close their polls at 7, to accommodate the central time zone areas. Will they wait until 7 for the western part of their states, or will the eastern results come in at 6, while the central ones come in at 7?
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 01:15:24 PM Good news for the Dems in FL is that Panhandle turnout is quite low so far, especially in the most hurricane-damaged counties. Democrats should start a new campaign and encourage panhandle to secede from Florida and join Alabama. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Baki on November 06, 2018, 01:24:00 PM How are the races in KY and IN going to be reported this year? I know in presidential years that they both close their polls at 7, to accommodate the central time zone areas. Will they wait until 7 for the western part of their states, or will the eastern results come in at 6, while the central ones come in at 7? Probably going to report the numbers as they come in, but hold off on any projections untill all the polls have closed in those states. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 01:24:18 PM Looks like 538 will have a neat real-time forecast. Dems +36 in House and Rs +1 in Senate for now.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 01:26:21 PM Steve Schale said Florida is looking where he thought it would be (R+2).
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 01:30:32 PM Good night! I hope you awake to good exit polls! Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 01:30:33 PM Steve Schale said Florida is looking where he thought it would be (R+2). Important to note that this is Eday voters, not overall results or the end margin (FL has a lot of registered dixiecrats and RINOs). But it is basically what we new from before, unless a unusual number of partisans break ranks, Florida as usual will come down to the Independent vote. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 01:32:03 PM Steve Schale said Florida is looking where he thought it would be (R+2). Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 01:32:40 PM A cool tracker of turnout in Philadelphia by ward: https://jtannen.github.io/election_tracker.html
Based on self-reporting though, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 06, 2018, 01:40:52 PM I'm a pollworker at my local precinct and the line has been steady for the entire 3 hours we've been open. Where do you live in Michigan? Flint exurbs Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pollster on November 06, 2018, 01:43:42 PM Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday.
The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 01:44:01 PM A cool tracker of turnout in Philadelphia by ward: https://jtannen.github.io/election_tracker.html Based on self-reporting though, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt. It looks like the one ward that is colored yellow with disproportionately high turnout is the ward with the University of Pennsylvania. So that looks like probably very good student/youth turnout there FWIW. Of course they must all be voting R because Trump is a Wharton alum. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 01:47:25 PM Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday. The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm. You can look at how many calls they have made (20 million) and how many doors they have knocked on for GOTV in each individual precinct here: https://win.betofortexas.com/?source=plantowin 1.6 million GOTV doors knocked, although that goes back to even a bit before the beginning of the early vote period. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 01:50:58 PM Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday. The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm. You can look at how many calls they have made (20 million) and how many doors they have knocked on for GOTV in each individual precinct here: https://win.betofortexas.com/?source=plantowin 1.6 million GOTV doors knocked, although that goes back to even a bit before the beginning of the early vote period. I do have to say that O'Rourke's campaign does seem to have a strong and impressive organization. Maybe that's enough to deliver higher than expected numbers for him. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 06, 2018, 01:51:21 PM Just voted, the polling place wasn’t packed, but this was definitely the most people I’ve seen there. I’ve never had even a five minute line before and there was one today. Terrific weather in Franklin County btw.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Classic Conservative on November 06, 2018, 01:54:51 PM I just went to the polls with my grandmother and we were at 42% of 2016 turnout. This is an Obama/Trump district.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: WV222 on November 06, 2018, 01:55:43 PM https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/06/indiana-election-2018-indystar-live-coverage-braun-donnelly/1749126002/
Johnson County, Indiana has had server issues today with voting. Voting seems to be back online now there, however, the election board is seeking a court order to extend the voting times till after 6 pm. IN-9 is in this county. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2018, 01:57:00 PM Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday. The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm. You can look at how many calls they have made (20 million) and how many doors they have knocked on for GOTV in each individual precinct here: https://win.betofortexas.com/?source=plantowin 1.6 million GOTV doors knocked, although that goes back to even a bit before the beginning of the early vote period. I do have to say that O'Rourke's campaign does seem to have a strong and impressive organization. Maybe that's enough to deliver higher than expected numbers for him. Even if he loses, his network will be an important legacy for future campaigns. That's what happened in GA-06 where McBath might beat Handel based on the network Ossoff left behind. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 01:59:01 PM An analysis of Cuyahoga County precinct-level turnout data so far:
Trump-majority precincts: 45.3% total turnout 21.2% ED turnout 24.1% Absentee turnout Clinton-majority precincts: 33.2% total turnout 17.4% ED turnout 15.9% Absentee turnout White Clinton-majority precincts: 38.5% total turnout 20.1% ED turnout 18.4% Absentee turnout Majority-black precincts: 28.2% total turnout 14.7% ED turnout 13.5% Absentee turnout >30% Hispanic precincts: 15.0% total turnout 9.3% ED turnout 5.8% Absentee turnout Clinton-swing precincts: 43.3% total turnout 21.8% ED turnout 21.6% Absentee turnout Trump-swing precincts: 31.6% total turnout 16.3% ED turnout 15.4% Absentee turnout White Trump-swing precincts: 35.9% total turnout 18.3% ED turnout 17.7% Absentee turnout So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 02:05:14 PM So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting. Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 06, 2018, 02:10:15 PM So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting. Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov. Yeah, hard to spin that in the Dems' favour unless non-whites tend to vote later in the day. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 02:10:48 PM https://nyti.ms/2Da3IT9
NYT page is up, though I can't get the correct link on my phone - the link takes you to the NY State page. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 02:12:53 PM So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting. Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov. Not sure why suburban areas that swung towards Clinton and are made up of the folks most likely to be revolted by Trump/Republicans having high turnout is a bad thing. Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 02:15:29 PM So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting. Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov. Not sure why suburban areas that swung towards Clinton and are made up of the folks most likely to be revolted by Trump/Republicans having high turnout is a bad thing. Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 02:18:35 PM hofoid is hofoid, but there has been a tendency for people to over-indulge partisan turnout numbers despite the fact that we know large numbers of Republican-leaning suburbanites have drifted since Trump descended from his perch years ago. I really don't see how you can get these margins among white college graduate women without winning over registered Republicans (or at least those who used to be registered Republicans).
Also, the independent vote is crucial. Bare GOP pluralities do not matter if they themselves depended on comfortably winning the indie vote, only to lose it this time around, which is typical in waves. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 02:18:48 PM Another way of looking at the Cuyahoga numbers:
Majority-white precincts: 56.5% of 2016 total turnout Majority-black precincts: 46.2% of 2016 total turnout >30% Hispanic precincts: 34.0% of 2016 total turnout Clinton-majority precincts: 50.9% of 2016 total turnout -----White Clinton-majority precincts: 55.7% Trump-majority precincts: 59.3% of 2016 total turnout Clinton-swinging precincts: 59.4% of 2016 total turnout Trump-swinging precincts: 49.1% of 2016 total turnout ------White Trump-swinging precincts: 52.5% So yes, minority turnout is relatively low, and yes, anti-Trump suburbanites are energized. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 02:19:46 PM A cool tracker of turnout in Philadelphia by ward: https://jtannen.github.io/election_tracker.html Based on self-reporting though, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt. It looks like the one ward that is colored yellow with disproportionately high turnout is the ward with the University of Pennsylvania. So that looks like probably very good student/youth turnout there FWIW. Of course they must all be voting R because Trump is a Wharton alum. Disproportionately low Hispanic and black turnout, which is what I was seeing. Edited to add: No on students; Temple University is the middle of North Philadelphia and the area is dark blue. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 06, 2018, 02:22:06 PM Can't believe NYT is still charging people to see the results.
The weather in Boston area is God awful - at 2 it was so dark it felt like 8 because of the clouds and the rain. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 02:27:00 PM Old people in FL are turning out like mad: 72% of 2016 ED votes cast in Sumter County, 69% in Collier---two highest in FL.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 06, 2018, 02:29:20 PM Can't believe NYT is still charging people to see the results. The weather in Boston area is God awful - at 2 it was so dark it felt like 8 because of the clouds and the rain. Paywall’s down until Thursday, although you might need an account (no payment) to access the page. I’m a lapsed subscriber (student on a budget) and I just got an email saying as much. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 02:31:03 PM Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad. In the TargetSmart early vote data, the African American vote share is slightly down from 2014. Hispanic vote share is very slightly up. In most other states early vote, there is a bigger increase in African American/Hispanic early vote turnout. Of course, early vote is not election day... and yes, a precinct level comparison to 2014/2016 would be nice. But not really confidence inspiring as compared to other states. Cordray could still win on the basis of winning independents though, I just don't think it is at all a gimme, and of the big Gov races it is probably the #1 that I am most worried about at the moment. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 02:33:22 PM I really don't see how you can get these margins among white college graduate women without winning over registered Republicans (or at least those who used to be registered Republicans). I am pretty sure Ohio doesn't have party registration, so that shouldn't be a factor here (but certainly is in many other states, e.g. Arizona). Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 02:33:34 PM Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad. In the TargetSmart early vote data, the African American vote share is slightly down from 2014. Hispanic vote share is very slightly up. In most other states early vote, there is a bigger increase in African American/Hispanic early vote turnout. Of course, early vote is not election day... and yes, a precinct level comparison to 2014/2016 would be nice. But not really confidence inspiring as compared to other states. Cordray could still win on the basis of winning independents though, I just don't think it is at all a gimme, and of the big Gov races it is probably the #1 that I am most worried about at the moment. Hispanic precincts had the biggest drop-off between 2016 and 2018 in my analysis of Clark County, NV early/mail voting. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 02:33:48 PM Democrats keep adding to the Clark County Freiwal.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 02:34:30 PM Anyone know what this site is because predictit won’t stop spamming it as proof Scott will win https://thefloridasqueeze.com
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 02:37:33 PM Old people in FL are turning out like mad: 72% of 2016 ED votes cast in Sumter County, 69% in Collier---two highest in FL. Sumter = The Villages Collier = Naples A lot of olds in both places, so at least to some degree that should probably be expected, unless it is way higher than in 2014/2016. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 06, 2018, 02:37:40 PM Old people in FL are turning out like mad: 72% of 2016 ED votes cast in Sumter County, 69% in Collier---two highest in FL. They always do. One of the stories of Florida that doesn't get a lot of buzz, is that some of the fastest growing areas of the state are heavily Republican. They turn out in droves and it eats into the big margins Democrats get out of the South East counties. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 06, 2018, 02:38:14 PM Anyone know what this site is because predictit won’t stop spamming it as proof Scott will win https://thefloridasqueeze.com He's a doom and gloomer, everything he says is either "Dems running away with it" or "ZERO chance for the Dems" Dems I know feel pretty good right now but things could obviously change. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Matty on November 06, 2018, 02:38:58 PM As of 2:20 PM,
Collier county at 66% turnout Lee county at 60% Brevard at 60% Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 02:39:34 PM Hispanic precincts had the biggest drop-off between 2016 and 2018 in my analysis of Clark County, NV early/mail voting. But Hispanics have the biggest % increase in the TargetSmart data. That compares to 2014. So really it probably depends on if you compare to 2014 or 2016. Hispanic turnout may look good in comparison to 2014, perhaps a bit less good (or bad) in comparison to 2016. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 02:43:57 PM Hispanic precincts had the biggest drop-off between 2016 and 2018 in my analysis of Clark County, NV early/mail voting. But Hispanics have the biggest % increase in the TargetSmart data. That compares to 2014. So really it probably depends on if you compare to 2014 or 2016. Hispanic turnout may look good in comparison to 2014, perhaps a bit less good (or bad) in comparison to 2016. TargetSmart's data says that the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased since 2014, which is not surprising as the Hispanic share of the population overall has increased since 2014. What I'm saying is that relative to 2016, there has been a larger drop-off in turnout in Hispanic precincts than white precincts (at least in Clark and Cuyahoga). Both are possible if there are more total Hispanics, but the rate at which any individual Hispanic turns out to vote is down. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 02:49:33 PM This is petty and fun:
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2018, 02:50:03 PM This is petty and fun: Ahahahaha Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 02:55:26 PM Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 02:57:14 PM Quote JUST IN: St. Louis County election officials tell @ksdknews that voter turnout was around 44% as of 1:00 pm. They anticipate turnout to reach closer to 60% by the time polls close at 7:00 pm. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 02:59:29 PM https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696 Comparing to 2010 seems like an odd decision. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 03:00:07 PM https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696 Comparing to 2010 seems like an odd decision. Last competitive midterm in Ohio? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2018, 03:00:21 PM Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 03:00:34 PM Lol
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 03:01:47 PM https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696 Comparing to 2010 seems like an odd decision. Last competitive midterm in Ohio? I get that, but A LOT has changed in 8 years. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 03:02:21 PM Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What? First part of the tweet: Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 03:02:51 PM I mean, it's not like it matters now... Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 06, 2018, 03:05:27 PM https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696 Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What? First part of the tweet: https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264 Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 06, 2018, 03:06:10 PM https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696 Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What? First part of the tweet: https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264 I think it's being compared to the total turnout in 2010. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2018, 03:07:02 PM https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696 Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What? First part of the tweet: https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264 ^^^ good question Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 03:07:06 PM Guys if you can, please try to avoid huge quote chains with the same tweets embedded over and over again. Especially today.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 03:07:18 PM Quote In north end of CD7 @DaveBratVA7th and @SpanbergerVA07 race, Culpeper County election officials report "near presidential" turnout. No hourly ballots cast metrics, but estimate is between 60% and 70% turnout Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 03:07:59 PM https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696 Someone will need to explain why that’s the case - presuming lower turnout in D strongholds is... bad for Rs? What? First part of the tweet: https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059890710869131264 I think it's being compared to the total turnout in 2010. Yes total, like Lakeland has already passed, Cleveland and Cleveland Heights are close. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Technocracy Timmy on November 06, 2018, 03:08:22 PM MT Treasurer is jumping in joy. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 03:09:21 PM Maybe we should get the people who run the voting for American Idol and similar shows to handle our elections.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 03:11:02 PM Maybe we should get the people who run the voting for American Idol and similar shows to handle our elections. I don't want my elections to be rigged. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Technocracy Timmy on November 06, 2018, 03:11:39 PM Maybe we should get the people who run the voting for American Idol and similar shows to handle our elections. I don't want my elections to be rigged. Too late for that. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Morden on November 06, 2018, 03:11:56 PM A reminder about the timing of the exit polls: The Edison Research exit poll, which is what most of the networks use, is being conducted right now, and at 5pm Eastern (just under 2 hours from now), Edison will be sharing their preliminary results with the networks. So then, starting at around 5:10 or 5:15pm or so, we'll start to see various news stories pop up along the lines of X% of the electorate is whites with a college degree, or Y% approve of Trump's performance as president, or whatever. But they will not release the full toplines of the exit poll for individual races until the polls start closing.
The wrinkle this year is that both Fox News and the AP have split off to do their own thing. They will not be using Edison, but are instead going with a new system called VoteCast, that's mostly based on online and phone polling. Details here: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/6/18067982/exit-polls-results-start-2018-midterm-elections I don't know when we'll start to get VoteCast numbers. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 03:17:07 PM I think I saw that they are going to start doing phone interviews so they can capture early voters.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 03:17:42 PM TargetSmart's data says that the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased since 2014, which is not surprising as the Hispanic share of the population overall has increased since 2014. What I'm saying is that relative to 2016, there has been a larger drop-off in turnout in Hispanic precincts than white precincts (at least in Clark and Cuyahoga). Both are possible if there are more total Hispanics, but the rate at which any individual Hispanic turns out to vote is down. Hispanic share of the NV Early Vote in TargetSmart data is up from 5.98% in 2014 to 9.78% in 2018. It is true that there is natural population increase, but that is a much larger increase in NV than can be explained just by pure demographic change. It is a reflection both of how terrible turnout was in 2014, and also that it is much better now. Whereas in the Ohio EV, there is a much smaller increase in Hispanic vote share, more in line with natural population growth (just a small fraction of a %, like .2% or something). Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 03:21:30 PM Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 03:23:01 PM Not sure if this is expectation setting
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 03:27:25 PM Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future. The Republican % continues to go down, while the Dem and NPA % slowly goes up. This is all without seeing Miami-Dade, Orange and Palm Beach. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Morden on November 06, 2018, 03:28:26 PM I think I saw that they are going to start doing phone interviews so they can capture early voters. That's been a part of the exit polls for probably something like a decade now, at least in states where early voting is common. Once early voting started to become a commonplace thing, they had to start supplementing the Election Day interviews with phone calls. I don't know the timing of when the calls are made though. Presumably they've been made throughout the last few days. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 06, 2018, 03:31:08 PM Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future. Until Latinos(besides Cubans) develop a culture of voting this will be the case. The white voting population in Florida replenishes itself with retirees and so even demographic shift to the electorate being younger and more non-white doesn't matter, if they don't vote and the old retirees vote like crazy. But Republicans also can't help themselves and I believe that if they win tonight they will makes changes to social safety net programs that will certainly cause a voter backlash even among older whites. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 03:32:52 PM Turnout in parts of Cobb County GA (Atlanta suburbs) running above presidential levels, per the AJC live updates (https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/live-updates-georgians-head-the-polls/DtYWWHcxngbl4SdVaDAyDL/).
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 03:36:08 PM Again, might be expectation setting:
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 03:37:43 PM Again, might be expectation setting: This sounds accurate to me, we all saw it and reaction from Republicans was in the news. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DrScholl on November 06, 2018, 03:40:13 PM The polling shift was quite sharp in the last stretch and close enough where it would stick. I think we are in for some surprises tonight.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 03:41:08 PM Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future. Until Latinos(besides Cubans) develop a culture of voting this will be the case. The white voting population in Florida replenishes itself with retirees and so even demographic shift to the electorate being younger and more non-white doesn't matter, if they don't vote and the old retirees vote like crazy. But Republicans also can't help themselves and I believe that if they win tonight they will makes changes to social safety net programs that will certainly cause a voter backlash even among older whites. It's not just about growth among POC. Young people in FL are very Democratic and eventually the retirees moving here won't be as Republican-leaning either, although that change is probably decades away from happening. All 3 of these trends converging at some point in the future will be a problem for the RPOF. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 03:41:52 PM Erickson overreacts all the time, but he may be right. The NYT polls also saw a shift to the Democrats of about three points.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 03:42:09 PM ()
() wish me luck tonight, my dudes Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 03:42:27 PM There are positive signs for both Dems and GOP so far. A total blowout looks quite unlikely. Other than that it's too early to say much.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 06, 2018, 03:46:54 PM There are positive signs for both Dems and GOP so far. A total blowout looks quite unlikely. Other than that it's too early to say much. Isn't that how it always is? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 06, 2018, 03:48:06 PM It's not just about growth among POC. Young people in FL are very Democratic But they have to vote, also they're not so Democratic that they bother to register as Democrats. Democrats are losing the branding of their party with young people. More of them are registering unaffiliated, NPA, or independent around the country. In Florida, Democrats registrations have been slowing as Dixiecrats make the switch to the GOP or die, and as young and Latino voters register NPA. I believe having people actually join your party is a key part of making them reliable voters. Because they feel more invested and can help to mold the party with the values and candidates they want. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 03:48:09 PM An election AND champions league football is on
I might just die of excitement, hold me everyone Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Umengus on November 06, 2018, 03:48:23 PM There are positive signs for both Dems and GOP so far. A total blowout looks quite unlikely. Other than that it's too early to say much. indies will be the key... Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 03:51:57 PM It's looking like Clark County, NV is going to get close to 70% of total active voters.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 03:58:37 PM Erick Erickson is not exactly pro-Trump, so if he is saying that late polls are not looking good for the GOP it is at least a bit less likely to be expectation setting than if a pro-Trump Republican said so. Still, it could be expectation setting :P
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 04:00:00 PM Erick Erickson is not exactly pro-Trump, so if he is saying that late polls are not looking good for the GOP it is at least a bit less likely to be expectation setting than if a pro-Trump Republican said so. Still, it could be expectation setting :P I can't read "Republicans may lose the House" as expectations setting because it's an overwhelming likelihood that they will. Optimistic Republicans think it will be by just a few seats. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 06, 2018, 04:05:31 PM Election Day vote totals across Nashville's 35 largest precincts have already surpassed the Election Day turnout at those precincts in the 2016 election.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 04:07:08 PM An election AND champions league football is on I might just die of excitement, hold me everyone College basketball season starts today too! Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 04:09:15 PM Election Day vote totals across Nashville's 35 largest precincts have already surpassed the Election Day turnout at those precincts in the 2016 election. https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1059905876281188355?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1059905876281188355&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html%231059905876281188355 I might be wrong here, but high turnout in Nashville is good for Bredesen right? Granted he needs both massive turnout and lopsided margins here and in Shelby to stand any kind of chance. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ronnie on November 06, 2018, 04:10:06 PM My polling site in CA-37 was decently crowded, but nothing too crazy. I voted straight D, but I did make some silly write-ins (like Mickey Mouse for county sheriff). Happy Election Day, everyone!
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 04:11:22 PM My polling site in CA-37 was decently crowded, but nothing too crazy. I voted straight D, but I did make some silly write-ins (like Mickey Mouse for county sheriff). Happy Election Day, everyone! Mickey might win if it was CA-46. :) Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 04:11:28 PM Bredesen needs crossover support. Turnout may help, but it won't be what wins it for him.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 04:11:47 PM Election Day vote totals across Nashville's 35 largest precincts have already surpassed the Election Day turnout at those precincts in the 2016 election. If Taylor Swift carries Phil Bredesen to the Senate, does she become the 2020 Democratic frontrunner by default (Constitutional age requirements be damned)? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 04:12:45 PM It's not just about growth among POC. Young people in FL are very Democratic But they have to vote, also they're not so Democratic that they bother to register as Democrats. Democrats are losing the branding of their party with young people. More of them are registering unaffiliated, NPA, or independent around the country. In Florida, Democrats registrations have been slowing as Dixiecrats make the switch to the GOP or die, and as young and Latino voters register NPA. I believe having people actually join your party is a key part of making them reliable voters. Because they feel more invested and can help to mold the party with the values and candidates they want. Right, but party loyalties tend to be sticky for young adults. If they are voting for one party numerous times and generally align with them ideologically, studies do tend to show that they stay that way for decades even. But even for Millennials, there will be some erosion since they are so incredibly Democratic. Wealthier Millennials may skew more Republican for instance, and they will live longer than poorer Millennials. But I'd bet the farm that Millennials will follow other generations and remain left-leaning even as they are retiring. For now they don't vote, but Millennials are approaching middle age, and that is generally when people start voting more. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 04:14:00 PM Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/ Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 04:15:42 PM Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/ Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 04:16:53 PM Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/ Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM? Polls close at six... Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 04:17:29 PM Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/ Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 04:17:50 PM Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/ Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM? Looks like an in house poll by WaPo and not done by the usual people who do exits. The numbers look decent for Dems, top issue healthcare, 56% wrong track. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 04:19:17 PM Joe Biden DOMINATING in the Dem primary
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 04:19:22 PM Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/ Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM? Generally, it means that preliminary exit poll data is not supposed to be released to the press until at least 5pm Eastern Time. But henster pointed out that this isn't the "standard" exit polling, it's something WaPo is doing. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 04:20:20 PM I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that?
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 04:20:53 PM Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/ Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM? Not the exit poll, but a battleground poll that's kinda like an exit poll: Quote These are preliminary results from a Washington Post-Schar School poll of 847 voters in 69 battleground districts conducted on Monday and Tuesday, Nov. 5-6. The survey is a final wave of interviews with respondents from a random sample of voters from state voter registration files in September and October. Respondents were contacted by mail and asked to complete surveys online or through an automated phone interview. Those who said they planned to vote early were contacted on Nov. 5 for the current survey, while those who planned to vote on Election Day were contacted Tuesday Nov. 6. Only respondents who reported voting were interviewed. Overall results among battleground district voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The initial sample of registered voters is weighted to estimates of the population of registered voters in battleground districts; Election Day results are based on the subset of respondents who report actually voting and will be weighted to match the proportion voting for Democratic or Republican candidates as results become available. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS of Glen Mills, Pa. Icons by Tim Boelaars for The Washington Post and The Noun Project. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 04:21:21 PM I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 04:22:46 PM I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that? He probably did, but turnout there also isn't as strong so far as other counties. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 04:23:34 PM I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that? He probably did, but turnout there also isn't as strong so far as other counties. God I thought you said he was MURDERED in the panhandle. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 04:23:51 PM I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that? PredictIt commentors make people on this board like like Rove and Axelrod. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 04:24:16 PM Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ExSky on November 06, 2018, 04:24:56 PM Anyone else feel like we are about to see the biggest polling miss in decades? I don’t know which way it’s going to go, but one of the two sides is going to completely overwhelm the other.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 04:25:13 PM Goal posts are being moved:
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 04:25:54 PM Quote #BREAKING: @fairfaxvotes reports turnout today is already estimated at 53%, topping levels in the 2010 and 2014 midterms and there are still three hours of voting to go. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 04:26:07 PM Anyone else feel like we are about to see the biggest polling miss in decades? I don’t know which way it’s going to go, but one of the two sides is going to completely overwhelm the other. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 04:26:23 PM Anyway, the site hasn't crashed yet, so I guess that is good.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 06, 2018, 04:28:37 PM … and second most important issue : DJ Trump himself. 56 % wong direction, 2/3 of Dems are for impeachment. All those who are posting "Send reinforcements"-tweets: Might you think that this could have caused something else?
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 04:30:02 PM I never find early exit polls particularly illuminating, personally. For example, more than a quarter of those who said we were on the "wrong track" in 2016 voted for Clinton any way. You can't infer a whole lot just from the raw response. If we had the same breakdown this time, the GOP would win 53% of the vote.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: bilaps on November 06, 2018, 04:31:32 PM Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/ Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM? Looks like an in house poll by WaPo and not done by the usual people who do exits. The numbers look decent for Dems, top issue healthcare, 56% wrong track. In NBC's last poll wrong track number was 54%. If it's 56% in competitive districts, that should be a problem for Republicans. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 04:37:04 PM https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889 The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2018, 04:38:25 PM https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889 The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008. Unacceptable regardless of who it benefits. States need to get their stuff figured iut Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 06, 2018, 04:41:34 PM Anyone else feel like we are about to see the biggest polling miss in decades? I don’t know which way it’s going to go, but one of the two sides is going to completely overwhelm the other. I think a significant polling miss is unlikely, but if there is one I think it would be much more likely to favor the Democrats than oppose them. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 04:46:49 PM Prelim exits should be coming at the top of the hour.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 04:48:52 PM The Freiwal keeps growing in Clark County!
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 04:50:21 PM The Freiwal keeps growing in Clark County! I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve! Except replace Santa with Sen. Rosen. :) Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2018, 04:50:28 PM Prelim exits should be coming at the top of the hour. And? Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 04:51:28 PM Talking heads on MSNBC are sounding pretty optimistic for Dems, FWIW. At some point they do start getting early exit poll numbers and that tends to color their early coverage, but not sure if they have those yet or only in an hour.
But at some point, you can tell roughly how the exit polls (though not necessarily the actual results) are going based on how people on the TV sound in coloring their coverage. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 04:51:41 PM Republicans are winning the day in Washoe, but are still about 2 points away from what they got on election day in 2016:
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thomas D on November 06, 2018, 04:53:42 PM Talking heads on MSNBC are sounding pretty optimistic for Dems, FWIW. At some point they do start getting early exit poll numbers and that tends to color their early coverage, but not sure if they have those yet or only in an hour. But at some point, you can tell roughly how the exit polls (though not necessarily the actual results) are going based on how people on the TV sound in coloring their coverage. I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Atlas Force on November 06, 2018, 04:53:51 PM https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889 The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008. Unacceptable regardless of who it benefits. States need to get their stuff figured iut Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 04:53:55 PM If I'm Rick Scott, I'm feeling pretty okay with turnout so far. Not confident, but definitely okay. The GOP base is doing what it needs to do.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 04:54:24 PM https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889 The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008. Unacceptable regardless of who it benefits. States need to get their stuff figured iut Exactly. Voting is the cornerstone of our form of government. Every one with the right to vote should be able to easily cast a ballot, and they all should be counted fairly and accurately. This seems like a no-brainer. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 04:54:51 PM I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55. And in 2004, the exit polls were overly optimistic for Dems and were predicting Kerry would win. But of course, it didn't work out that way when the actual #s came in. So that illustrates both that the coverage is colored by early exit polls, but also that the exit polls can be wrong. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 04:55:35 PM Democrats won in Guam!
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 04:56:06 PM I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55. And in 2004, the exit polls were overly optimistic for Dems and were predicting Kerry would win. But of course, it didn't work out that way when the actual #s came in. So that illustrates both that the coverage is colored by early exit polls, but also that the exit polls can be wrong. Same in 2016. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 04:56:22 PM Talking heads on MSNBC are sounding pretty optimistic for Dems, FWIW. At some point they do start getting early exit poll numbers and that tends to color their early coverage, but not sure if they have those yet or only in an hour. But at some point, you can tell roughly how the exit polls (though not necessarily the actual results) are going based on how people on the TV sound in coloring their coverage. Rachel Maddow could barely control herself in the opening minutes of the 2016 coverage either. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 04:56:49 PM The momentum is in the GOP's favor.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 04:58:49 PM Democrats won in Guam! Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 04:59:35 PM Democrats won in Guam! Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 05:00:33 PM The momentum is in the GOP's favor. Citation needed. Title: Election Night Returns MEGATHREAD Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 05:01:04 PM Well, here we go! The moment we've all been waiting for. We've discussed the campaigns. We've been through the October surprises. The gaffes. The debates. And of course, the speculation about what's happening on the ground during Election Day.
Now it's time to kick back and watch the returns! Preliminary exit polls should be dropping momentarily. Discuss! Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Strong Candidate on November 06, 2018, 05:01:06 PM Democrats won in Guam! Yes, although the D is quite conservative and Guam politics are very parochial and don't necessarily follow national partisan trends. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 05:01:56 PM I think that we may be able to figure out how the night will go-or at least the big picture outcome-very early. If Braun wins Indiana, Republicans are keeping the Senate. If Cockburn wins VA-05, Democrats are taking the House. Though if she loses that doesn't mean Republicans are keeping it, and if Braun loses that doesn't mean the Senate is going Democrat, it just means these results would make the big picture very obvious.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 05:02:12 PM If I'm Rick Scott, I'm feeling pretty okay with turnout so far. Not confident, but definitely okay. The GOP base is doing what it needs to do. TBF, I think there is stuff on both sides that you could pick out that is positive for both sides. Democrats have slowly improved in the swing counties as the day has gone on and Broward has kept creeping up. Like we've both said, it's gonna come down to those NPAs. Title: Re: Election Night Returns MEGATHREAD Post by: Boobs on November 06, 2018, 05:02:36 PM ()
Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 05:03:43 PM 1 hour!
Title: Re: Election Night Returns MEGATHREAD Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 05:03:55 PM I have waited a long time for this moment.
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:05:29 PM Rachel Maddow could barely control herself in the opening minutes of the 2016 coverage either. And the early exit polls were good for Dems in 2016. Just not the results. Point is that the mood of talking heads is an indicator of the exits (but not necessarily the results, since exit polls can be and often have been off). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 05:05:34 PM FTR this stickied thread was meant to serve as a general purpose election thread for the entire day (I've already merged other threads for the same reason).
Unless there is a mass outpouring of support for separate day/night threads, I'd rather keep everything together so the discussion isn't needlessly fragmented. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: American2020 on November 06, 2018, 05:06:05 PM Exit Polls
Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 05:06:56 PM FTR this stickied thread was meant to serve as a general purpose election thread for the entire day (I've already merged other threads for the same reason). Unless there is a mass outpouring of support for separate day/night threads, I'd rather keep everything together so the discussion isn't needlessly fragmented. We will probably need a second and a third thread later, if AL-Sen is any guide. Thats if the forum doesn't crash OFC Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 06, 2018, 05:07:00 PM Trump "strongly disapprove" is VERY HIGH in first CNN Exit Polls.
56% say country is on wrong track, 41% say right track. *preliminary information* Title: Re: Election Night Returns MEGATHREAD Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:07:15 PM Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large. What is the swing from 2014/2016 though? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: American2020 on November 06, 2018, 05:07:25 PM Strongly disapprove: 47%
Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 05:07:29 PM The Freiwal keeps growing in Clark County! I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve! Except replace Santa with Sen. Rosen. :) Wouldn't Jon Ralston be Santa and Sen. Rosen would be the presents? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: USO2019PB on November 06, 2018, 05:07:47 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: john cage bubblegum on November 06, 2018, 05:07:55 PM The early exit poll data looks pretty decent for Dems, but heavy heavy caution, as it is early exit poll data. Trump at -11 net approval, with 31% strongly approving and 47% strongly disapproving.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 05:08:35 PM High turnout in Miami-Dade https://mobile.twitter.com/lizroldancbs4/status/1059914759645155329
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 05:09:49 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Republicans are in for a beating if that's accurate, but I've learned better than to trust early exit polls. Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 05:10:02 PM Quote #BREAKING: @fairfaxvotes reports turnout today is already estimated at 53%, topping levels in the 2010 and 2014 midterms and there are still three hours of voting to go. I bless the rains down in Novvaaa Title: Re: Election Night Returns MEGATHREAD Post by: Boobs on November 06, 2018, 05:10:46 PM Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large. What is the swing from 2014/2016 though? Incumbent Bordallo was successfully primaried this year. 2016: Bordallo* (D): 18,345 Camacho (R): 15,617 2014: Bordallo* (D): 20,550 Metcalfe (R): 14,866 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 05:11:16 PM OMG, please Florida, elect Scott!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DaWN on November 06, 2018, 05:11:31 PM Oh for the election to be over here where the exit polls are nice and accurate.
Anyway, not good news for the GOP if they are accurate, but a trainload of salt is required. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 05:11:34 PM I think exit polls are pretty much in line what expectations were.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: afleitch on November 06, 2018, 05:12:04 PM For comparison, Obama approval was 44% to 55% disapproval in 2014. So similar split.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 05:12:09 PM This is pretty big (was 10% in 2016):
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 05:12:20 PM How much did the exit poll shift in '16, could see it going up to 53/46 or 52/47 at the end of the night.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: bilaps on November 06, 2018, 05:12:45 PM Comparing Trump's approval with generic ballot, it could be D+8 or even higher.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 05:13:19 PM OMG, please Florida, elect Scott! You mean, Gov. Medicare Fraud Title: Re: Election Day Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Morden on November 06, 2018, 05:13:41 PM I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55. And in 2004, the exit polls were overly optimistic for Dems and were predicting Kerry would win. But of course, it didn't work out that way when the actual #s came in. So that illustrates both that the coverage is colored by early exit polls, but also that the exit polls can be wrong. 2004 was back in the era when the exit polls started leaking around noon eastern time, so they were *very* early and incomplete. After that fiasco, they reformed their practices, and don't release any exit poll data until 5pm. Title: Re: Election Night Returns MEGATHREAD Post by: ag on November 06, 2018, 05:14:00 PM Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large. What is the swing from 2014/2016 though? It was DEM 18,345 REP 15,617 back in 2016 So, the swing is in favor of DEMs, though not large. But the Dem candidate defeated a long-time incumbent in the primary this time, so this is impressive for a new candidate. The governorship is a pick-up for Dems though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 05:14:09 PM Oh for the election to be over here where the exit polls are nice and accurate. Anyway, not good news for the GOP if they are accurate, but a trainload of salt is required. > UK Exit Polls > Accurate I see you Conveniently forget 2015 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 05:15:43 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Meh, Trump is such a disgrace, that he should be in the 20's. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DaWN on November 06, 2018, 05:15:54 PM Oh for the election to be over here where the exit polls are nice and accurate. Anyway, not good news for the GOP if they are accurate, but a trainload of salt is required. > UK Exit Polls > Accurate > Conveniently forgetting 2015 2015 was not perfect, but it was certainly within a fairly reasonable margin of error and told a very different story than the public polls which ended up defining the night. A Tory majority was definitely seen as possible after it came out. And I did mean compared to the US rather than in general lol Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 05:16:01 PM Exit Poll: Vote today was to…
Support Trump 26 Oppose Trump 39 Trump not a factor 33 2010 Support Obama 23 Oppose Obama 37 Obama not a factor 38 2006 Support Bush 22 Oppose Bush 36 Bush not a factor 39 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 05:16:04 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 05:16:07 PM We will probably need a second and a third thread later, if AL-Sen is any guide. Thats if the forum doesn't crash OFC True. I think Dave is waiting to see if any other mitigations other than what was done behind the scenes so far are actually necessary, so it's probable the site starts to lock up at least a few times. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:17:08 PM I am cautiously optimistic (really pretty optimistic, but I am saying cautious just because of 2016 trauma) about the Trump approval early exits. We should also remember that while they could overestimate Dems, they could also underestimate them. And if they do, we could have a really huge wave. OTOH I think if they underestimate, it will probably still be enough to take the House.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 05:18:10 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole. Yeah, he was at 43% here in VA. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Morden on November 06, 2018, 05:18:20 PM Exit poll:
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 06, 2018, 05:18:59 PM Hope Scott Wins
He is by far one of the 3 best Republican candidates running this year Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 06, 2018, 05:19:19 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole. Yeah, he was at 43% here in VA. So tonight could be worse! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 06, 2018, 05:19:35 PM This looks pretty bad for Republicans but remember that the early exits are wrong pretty much every single time and will be adjusted as the night goes on
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 05:20:08 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole. Yeah, he was at 43% here in VA. So tonight could be worse! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 05:20:37 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole. lol. Are you really acting like one exit poll in Virginia is more meaningful than the many, many nationwide polls of his approval?! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 06, 2018, 05:21:34 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole. Yeah, he was at 43% here in VA. So tonight could be worse! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 05:22:04 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole. lol. Are you really acting like one exit poll in Virginia is more meaningful than the many, many nationwide polls of his approval?! No, I'm saying it was unrealistic to expect him to be in the 30s, and that Dems can easily have a great night even if he isn't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 05:22:23 PM ofc FOX is doing their own exit poll who knows when that will be released...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:22:32 PM MSNBC says in exit poll the white vote share is same as 2008.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 05:22:38 PM Party favorability:
DEM: 50/46 (+4) GOP: 43/54 (-11) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shilly on November 06, 2018, 05:22:47 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole. lol. Are you really acting like one exit poll in Virginia is more meaningful than the many, many nationwide polls of his approval?! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 05:23:07 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:23:54 PM Missouri is 50 Approve, 49 Disapprove says MSNBC exits
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 05:24:05 PM Which side does better in the post 5pm voting crowd?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 06, 2018, 05:24:34 PM Approval better in Florida than Missouri.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:24:37 PM Florida --- 51 Approve 48 disapprove of Trump in early exits.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 05:24:49 PM Trump approval, GA: 47/51 (-4)
MSNBC says Abrams is winning a larger share of disapproves than Kemp is winning approves... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 05:25:13 PM Missouri is 50 Approve, 49 Disapprove says MSNBC exits Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:25:34 PM MSNBC also said the approval was close in GA, and that Abrams was doing better among Trump Disapprove than Kemp was doing among Trump approve, but I didn't catch the exact #s.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 05:26:01 PM Missouri is 50 Approve, 49 Disapprove says MSNBC exits If it's accurate, it'll be a razor thin race as expected. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 05:26:47 PM Approval better in Florida than Missouri. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:26:54 PM Trump approval, GA: 47/51 (-4) MSNBC says Abrams is winning a larger share of disapproves than Kemp is winning approves... That is 47 approve, 51 disapprove? If so, amazing great for Abrams. I hope it holds up....... If it does she could be on course to win without a runoff, which would be amazing. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 05:27:30 PM Exit Polls Approve: 44% Disapprove: 55% Uh, he wasn't even in the 30s in Virginia last year, and Virginia is to the left of the country as a whole. lol. Are you really acting like one exit poll in Virginia is more meaningful than the many, many nationwide polls of his approval?! Trump was at 39% at the time among polls of likely or registered voters(see 538's tracker; https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/), his low point was August 2017 when he was at 37% and then in December he was at 38%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2018, 05:27:34 PM 65+: R+1
... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 05:27:49 PM 30 minutes
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 06, 2018, 05:28:04 PM Yeah individual state approvals for Trump are pretty screwy. Like I've said, initial exit polls have pretty much never been right yet we still allow them to shape our view of the election going in
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 05:28:09 PM Anything for Indiana?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 05:28:28 PM If that is true....wow. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Strong Candidate on November 06, 2018, 05:30:02 PM Very cautiously optimistic.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 05:30:02 PM First closings in 1800 seconds.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 06, 2018, 05:30:10 PM Hope Scott Wins He is by far one of the 3 best Republican candidates running this year He has been a great governor And he never was even charged for Medicare fraud or even sued for it Title: Re: Election Night Returns MEGATHREAD Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 05:30:50 PM () Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large. Where is Dixville's Notch when you need it? ;) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Umengus on November 06, 2018, 05:30:54 PM Approval better in Florida than Missouri. Yeah exits are trash, News at 10 with JA at 51, it's good news in FL for GOP. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 05:31:02 PM Hype hype hype
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: AtorBoltox on November 06, 2018, 05:32:53 PM Showing Nancy Pelosi numbers but not Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell? What a joke
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive on November 06, 2018, 05:33:18 PM Bad for GOP right Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 05:33:32 PM Does the exit poll capture the early vote may explain high FL numbers..
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 05:33:57 PM It really should be illegal to broadcast exit polls until voting is completely over. nation-wide Exit polls can influence the election.
And yes, this would bring up the first amendment but surely you can outlaw exit polls on the basis of election interference. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horsemask on November 06, 2018, 05:34:02 PM Looking forward to tonight with all of you.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 05:34:27 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 05:35:35 PM Trump approval higher in FL than MO? oh
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 05:35:39 PM It really should be illegal to broadcast exit polls until voting is completely over. Exit polls can influence the election. And yes, this would bring up the first amendment but surely you can outlaw exit polls on the basis of election interference. Eh, some countries Ban exit/same day polls. The end result is that they just end up published in neighbors papers under disguised names. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Not Me, Us on November 06, 2018, 05:36:03 PM Looking forward to tonight with all of you. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 05:36:34 PM It really should be illegal to broadcast exit polls until voting is completely over. Exit polls can influence the election. And yes, this would bring up the first amendment but surely you can outlaw exit polls on the basis of election interference. Eh, some countries Ban exit/same day polls. The end result is that they just end up published in neighbors papers under disguised names. In most countries election day voting runs through to 10/11pm. Just a thought ;) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 06, 2018, 05:36:44 PM Trump approval higher in FL than MO? oh Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 05:36:53 PM Here is a Texas rumor... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: jdk on November 06, 2018, 05:37:58 PM It really should be illegal to broadcast exit polls until voting is completely over. Exit polls can influence the election. And yes, this would bring up the first amendment but surely you can outlaw exit polls on the basis of election interference. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 05:38:24 PM 20 minutes!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 05:39:05 PM Fox News voter analysis data:
65-34 on economy 51% want to repeal Obamacare 46% support the wall 66% think political correctness has gone too far Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 06, 2018, 05:39:11 PM The exit polls are overall encouraging for Democrats, but have to be taken with truckloads of salt. Let's see what the vote starts to look like in Indiana in... less than in hour.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2018, 05:40:18 PM Fox News voter analysis data: 65-34 on economy 51% want to repeal Obamacare 46% support the wall 66% think political correctness has gone too far Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 06, 2018, 05:40:26 PM Fox News voter analysis data: 65-34 on economy 51% want to repeal Obamacare 46% support the wall 66% think political correctness has gone too far Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 06, 2018, 05:40:28 PM The exit polls have gotten it wrong so many times in the past. Let's not put trust in them now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2018, 05:41:26 PM Fox News voter analysis data: 65-34 on economy 51% want to repeal Obamacare 46% support the wall 66% think political correctness has gone too far Among Republicans? Because otherwise these numbers have no relation to reality. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 05:41:27 PM Oh god are we actually trying to extrapolate from early exits?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2018, 05:42:19 PM The exit polls have gotten it wrong so many times in the past. Let's not put trust in them now. Personally, I had every intention to boycott them. But most of Atlas has a different opinion. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 06, 2018, 05:42:49 PM Oh god are we actually trying to extrapolate from early exits? It’s atlas, of course there are people doing that Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 06, 2018, 05:43:02 PM Oh god are we actually trying to extrapolate from early exits? Welcome to Atlas! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 05:43:11 PM Fox News voter analysis data: 65-34 on economy 51% want to repeal Obamacare 46% support the wall 66% think political correctness has gone too far Yeah, I don't think so... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:43:49 PM Oh god are we actually trying to extrapolate from early exits? Of course. What else are we supposed to do? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 06, 2018, 05:43:52 PM Oh god are we actually trying to extrapolate from early exits? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 05:45:29 PM 15 minutes
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: History505 on November 06, 2018, 05:45:37 PM 15 mins to go!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 05:46:04 PM Fox news is literally pulling numbers out of there *ss at this point. ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 05:46:14 PM Interesting framing of Qs they have no JA yet, but I bet Obamacare was worded repeal/replace and you can word border wall in ways where it can get higher support. And lol at the PC question they threw in there.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 05:46:39 PM The exit polls, like the regular polls, seem as if they're drawing from two different populations. I'm very curious to see how this resolves itself.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 05:47:08 PM Reminder that Fox did their own exit poll this year
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: bilaps on November 06, 2018, 05:47:52 PM Guys it's AP also which does this together with FOX. It's not like Hannity did the crosstabs, chill.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 05:48:06 PM Quote Chuck Todd just said "the first House Democratic bill has to be about pre-existing conditions, right? Otherwise what was this about?" Uh, pre-existing conditions are illegal under current law. Chuck Todd is damn fool. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2018, 05:48:15 PM Reminder that Fox did their own exit poll this year Oh, that explains A LOT. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:48:45 PM The exit polls, like the regular polls, seem as if they're drawing from two different populations. I'm very curious to see how this resolves itself. Yeah, the FOX one does seem pretty different. They are probably more consistent than they seem though, just asking different questions with different framing. I think FOX didn't say what Trump's approval is? Which if so is interesting and possibly indicative. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: USO2019PB on November 06, 2018, 05:50:42 PM Fox News voter analysis data: 65-34 on economy 51% want to repeal Obamacare 46% support the wall 66% think political correctness has gone too far Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: here2view on November 06, 2018, 05:51:46 PM Fox News voter analysis data: 65-34 on economy 51% want to repeal Obamacare 46% support the wall 66% think political correctness has gone too far Good thing it's not. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 05:52:13 PM They have more numbers scrolling in their chyron, 58% think country headed in wrong track, Trump trade policies 50-39 hurt more than help.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Strong Candidate on November 06, 2018, 05:52:17 PM I see we're getting closer to peak Atlas.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:52:52 PM They have more numbers scrolling in their chyron, 58% think country headed in wrong track, Trump trade policies 50-39 hurt more than help. Ah, that is much more consistent with the CNN/MSNBC exits. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 05:53:01 PM Fox's polling outfit is usually pretty legit...and aren't they doing it in conjunction with the AP?
I mean, it's possible both sets of figures we've been seeing are accurate; not a lot of overlap posted here in terms of the questions. I guess we'll find out soon enough! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 05:53:15 PM Fox News voter analysis data: 65-34 on economy 51% want to repeal Obamacare 46% support the wall 66% think political correctness has gone too far I highly doubt they are. Kind of excited to follow along tonight, not really caring what happens and just being interested for the first time in a while. Off to the polls! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 05:53:57 PM They have more numbers scrolling in their chyron, 58% think country headed in wrong track, Trump trade policies 50-39 hurt more than help. Ah, that is much more consistent with the CNN/MSNBC exits. Yeah they probably just picked the best Qs for their spin and put them front and center. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 05:54:33 PM Fox's polling outfit is usually pretty legit...and aren't they doing it in conjunction with the AP? I mean, it's possible both sets of figures we've been seeing are accurate; not a lot of overlap posted here in terms of the questions. I guess we'll find out soon enough! The polling seems have bias toward Democrats, for some reason. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 05:54:50 PM Fox also has 47% saying "Trump is a strong leader"
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: History505 on November 06, 2018, 05:55:10 PM 5 mins now until showtime.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 05:55:57 PM They are not talking about them at all have to catch glimpses when they appear on the chyron.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: riceowl on November 06, 2018, 05:56:36 PM Fox's polling outfit is usually pretty legit...and aren't they doing it in conjunction with the AP? I mean, it's possible both sets of figures we've been seeing are accurate; not a lot of overlap posted here in terms of the questions. I guess we'll find out soon enough! The polling seems have bias toward Democrats, for some reason. <3 <3 <3 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: USO2019PB on November 06, 2018, 05:56:42 PM Everyone give their final prediction of IN-Sen and KY-06, before the polls close. I say Braun wins IN, and Republicans hold KY-06, FWIW.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 05:56:58 PM Everyone give their final prediction of IN-Sen and KY-06, before the polls close. I say Braun wins IN, and Republicans hold KY-06, FWIW. Agreed Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 06, 2018, 05:57:50 PM Dems win both. I'm pumped. This is what the past two years of my life have all amounted to!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 05:58:11 PM Everyone give their final prediction of IN-Sen and KY-06, before the polls close. I say Braun wins IN, and Republicans hold KY-06, FWIW. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 05:58:36 PM Does anyone know what time we will get the first House exit poll #s? Is that in 2 minutes, or 1 hour and 2 minutes?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: john cage bubblegum on November 06, 2018, 05:58:51 PM Donnelly wins by around 3, and McGrath wins a squeaker, less than 1%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 05:59:06 PM Guys it's AP also which does this together with FOX. It's not like Hannity did the crosstabs, chill. they are separate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 06, 2018, 05:59:25 PM test
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 05:59:39 PM Everyone give their final prediction of IN-Sen and KY-06, before the polls close. I say Braun wins IN, and Republicans hold KY-06, FWIW. Democrats win both. Donnelly wins by a larger margin than Tester in MT, McGrath wins by 4. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 06:00:07 PM LETS GO DONNELLY!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:00:44 PM Donnelly by 2-3.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: here2view on November 06, 2018, 06:00:49 PM LETS GO DONNELLY!!!! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 06, 2018, 06:01:58 PM Everyone give their final prediction of IN-Sen and KY-06, before the polls close. I say Braun wins IN, and Republicans hold KY-06, FWIW. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 06:01:59 PM LETS GO DONNELLY!!!! AND McGrath!! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 06:02:04 PM Fox also has 47% saying "Trump is a strong leader" Stop. I'm watching Fox. Fox have not shown many numbers. Stop making sh**t up. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:02:18 PM Fox also has 47% saying "Trump is a strong leader" Stop. I'm watching Fox. Fox have not shown many numbers. Stop making sh**t up. I don't make things up. It's on their chryon... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 06, 2018, 06:02:37 PM Donnelly and Barr both win in a squeaker.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 06, 2018, 06:02:43 PM McGrath and Donnelly win by the skin of their teeth.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 06:02:44 PM I thought NYT had unlimited articles today? I'm already out lol.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 06, 2018, 06:03:26 PM Donnelly by 2.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 06:03:29 PM Dems win both.
LET'S GO JOE! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:03:42 PM CNN exit poll:
48% say Trump's immigration policies are too tough 48% say not tough enough or about right Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: here2view on November 06, 2018, 06:03:43 PM Dems win both. LET'S GO JOE! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 06, 2018, 06:03:56 PM I hope both win, but I will say, Donelly is more likely to win than McGrath.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on November 06, 2018, 06:04:01 PM I thought NYT had unlimited articles today? I'm already out lol. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 06:04:01 PM I thought NYT had unlimited articles today? I'm already out lol. Use a "Private" or "Incognito" Window. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: smoltchanov on November 06, 2018, 06:04:21 PM I thought NYT had unlimited articles today? I'm already out lol. They do for couple of days if you register and login (free). I have no problems so far... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 06:04:29 PM AP/FOX exit polls appear vastly different than the traditional ones.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 06, 2018, 06:04:30 PM I thought NYT had unlimited articles today? I'm already out lol. You need to sign up. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 06:04:45 PM CNN exit poll: 48% say Trump's immigration policies are too tough 48% say not tough enough or about right Which matches Fox's Wall question. So similar data, but presented differently. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 06:04:47 PM Braun, take my energy!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:06:08 PM First KY-06 votes have Barr up 58-40
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 06:06:37 PM Braun leasing in the first results!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:06:37 PM First numbers!
Barr 304 McGrath 207 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:06:55 PM First KY-06 votes have Barr up 58-40 Are you on the state website? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 06:07:08 PM First KY-06 votes have Barr up 58-40 Call it. #Doomed Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:07:46 PM First KY-06 votes have Barr up 58-40 Are you on the state website? CNN Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 06:08:08 PM Braun.
Phila expects 450,000 turnout. 2012 was 690,000. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 06:08:28 PM Sullivan county IN early vote does not look good, Donnelly is doing substantially worse than Bayh did. Fayette County looks about the same as Bayh did.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:08:50 PM Very early, but great number in Sullivan for Braun.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:10:13 PM Indiana should have been polled more.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 06:10:26 PM What's important about those Sullivan numbers is that Sullivan went for Donnelly 51-43 last go around.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:10:26 PM I presume this is all early/absentee vote, but another great number for Braun in Miami County.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 06, 2018, 06:11:56 PM Great number for Donnelly in Whitley County.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: User157088589849 on November 06, 2018, 06:12:10 PM 67% support keeping roe Vs Wade as it is.
21% support getting rid of roe. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:12:12 PM I presume the Whitley County result is an error, otherwise that's an insane result for Donnelly.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 06, 2018, 06:12:22 PM Must be a mix up, but Donnelly up almost 30% in tiny Whitley county, northwest of Fort Wayne, with 3,500 votes in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 06:12:36 PM Donnelly winning Whitley Co Indiana early vote so far, seems like that must be good for him.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 06, 2018, 06:13:21 PM 67% support keeping roe Vs Wade as it is. 21% support getting rid of roe. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: USO2019PB on November 06, 2018, 06:13:34 PM These early results confirm my feeling that Braun will beat Donnely, FWIW.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: °Leprechaun on November 06, 2018, 06:13:36 PM 325 Users online. I am going to keep an eye on that, I wonder what the record is.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:13:52 PM The GOP House candidate is up by about the same margin in Whitley's district, so I assume an error.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 06:14:21 PM Which results are you following? I see no results from Whitley.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Strong Candidate on November 06, 2018, 06:14:28 PM I presume this is all early/absentee vote, but another great number for Braun in Miami County. Trump +54, Young +35 County Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 06:14:38 PM CNN raw results: https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/house
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Green Line on November 06, 2018, 06:15:26 PM Calling it for Braun, wow!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:15:55 PM I presume this is all early/absentee vote, but another great number for Braun in Miami County. Trump +54, Young +35 County It's quite a bit better for the Rs than Donnelly's 2012 win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Strong Candidate on November 06, 2018, 06:16:07 PM These probably aren't great results for Donnelly.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 06:16:42 PM The GOP House candidate is up by about the same margin in Whitley's district, so I assume an error. Yeah, I think you are right. Early results look like a Braun win so far, but it is mostly early vote, not election day. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: riceowl on November 06, 2018, 06:17:14 PM CNN exit poll: 48% say Trump's immigration policies are too tough 48% say not tough enough or about right Lol, or: 16% think Trump isn't tough enough 80% think it's too much or just right Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:17:16 PM Braun up on the 2016 margins in Miami county.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cvparty on November 06, 2018, 06:17:27 PM to win by 3.5 points, donnelly should be losing sullivan, fayette, pulaski, decatur, miami, and lawrence by ~7, 8, 15, 27, 20, and 21 points respectively. rn he's losing 10, 26, 13, 34, and 34. but results are initial rn lol
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 06:18:26 PM From what I can tell so far, and it's very early, but Braun seems to be improving on Mourdock's 2012 performance.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 06:18:33 PM Donnelly not really doing any better than Bayh 2016 so far.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:20:41 PM Early returns for Braun show him very close to Young in 2016.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 06:20:44 PM Monroe County's hours are extended until 7, Marion County traditionally reports a bit late and Lake County reports very late. So don't make too much of the early hours yet; until the Dem counties come in it'll be hard to tell.
We know that there's high turnout across the board. Question is if Donnelly's high urban/suburban turnout cancels out Braun's performance in the rurals. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 06:20:54 PM https://twitter.com/adamwren
Quote GOP source: Braun underperforming Banks by 5 percent among absentee voters in Whitley County—about 25 minutes from where the president rallied in Fort Wayne yesterday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 06:21:59 PM I’m going to throw up
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 06, 2018, 06:22:46 PM I’m going to throw up Literally 1% reporting in Indiana, calm the heck down, yeesh. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 06, 2018, 06:22:58 PM Peak Atlas. Clearly the outcome of the entire night can be called from initial results from a couple of counties.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:22:59 PM This looks like a disaster. Racist hicks win again Were 22 minutes in, please dont. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 06:23:18 PM Dems are going to get pummelled tonight, I'm thinking they actually suffer a net loss in the House at this point.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 06, 2018, 06:23:24 PM Well I'm leaving now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 06:23:35 PM This is going to be a good night, I can tell.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 06:24:10 PM Bright side is Amy is doing well
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 06, 2018, 06:24:23 PM My god, dont do this
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 06:24:29 PM Lol @ early freaking out with less than 5% of the vote in.
Calm yourselves. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 06:25:07 PM Dems are going to get pummelled tonight, I'm thinking they actually suffer a net loss in the House at this point. Barely anything is in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: History505 on November 06, 2018, 06:25:48 PM Folks acting like 90% of the vote is in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 06:26:01 PM I was about to ask "Has this forum learned nothing about drawing conclusions from early returns?" But then I realized that you don't need to ask questions you already know the answer to.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 06, 2018, 06:26:41 PM I'm starting to chug my Sangria. People on here insufferable.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cvparty on November 06, 2018, 06:26:43 PM omg can y'all stop freaking out we literally have a few precincts across a few counties rn
donnelly is losing grant co by 3 points now while his benchmark is around losing by 15 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 06:26:44 PM Peak Atlas. Clearly the outcome of the entire night can be called from initial results from a couple of counties. But this is like, a tradition in Atlas. Don't criticize. It's always fun. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 06:26:54 PM Grant County might be an encouraging sign...Mourdock won by 7% there, and Braun is only up by 3% there.
However, some of us are freaking out because Donnelly was doing better in the rurals last go around than he is now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 06, 2018, 06:27:10 PM Dems are going to get pummelled tonight, I'm thinking they actually suffer a net loss in the House at this point. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 06:27:15 PM I was about to ask "Has this forum learned nothing about drawing conclusions from early returns?" But then I realized that you don't need to ask questions you already know the answer to. Atlas tradition Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 06:27:30 PM R+191
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on November 06, 2018, 06:27:31 PM GO BRAUN!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 06:27:53 PM Very curious to see if the early freak outs are justified or if the patient ones will prevail.
Then again I think I’ve always staked my flag in that battle Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 06:28:14 PM From what I can tell so far, and it's very early, but Braun seems to be improving on Mourdock's 2012 performance. Bingo. I want to see the turnout in Lake. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 06, 2018, 06:28:17 PM Dems in Disarray time of the night
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 06:28:17 PM Does KY, specifically KY-6 report slowly? Definitely watching this one closely.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 06, 2018, 06:29:25 PM Wow Amy is doing really well
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:29:28 PM CNN calls Indiana for Braun Umm... No it hasn't. I'm watching CNN. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:29:38 PM Big if true. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 06:29:45 PM Is there any reason CNN isn't showing the % of vote that's in?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 06, 2018, 06:29:57 PM C'mon, Joe!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: here2view on November 06, 2018, 06:30:07 PM CNN calls Indiana for Braun Ok, this is epic. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 06, 2018, 06:30:13 PM Trump at 52-48 approval in Indiana. Not stellar, but enough for Braun to just scrape by.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 06, 2018, 06:30:18 PM CNN calls Indiana for Braun Umm... No it hasn't. I'm watching CNN. They can't even call Indiana, since polls haven't completely closed there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 06:30:24 PM Does KY, specifically KY-6 report slowly? Definitely watching this one closely. There are some early results, which don't mean anything. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 06:30:27 PM My guess is Rs are going to do well in rural areas where Trump did well. That is not exactly a surprise, but might mean bad things for various districts like KS-02, MN-01, etc. The best Dem hope at the moment is going to have to be on the suburbs. And we don't really have anything in from those sorts of areas yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist on November 06, 2018, 06:30:29 PM CNN calls Indiana for Braun Can we preemptively f*** off with this nonsense? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 06:31:12 PM CNN calls Indiana for Braun Can we preemptively f*** off with this nonsense? I suggest reporting any posts that are outright disinformation like that one. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 06:31:23 PM Trump at 52/48 in IN according to exits.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 06:31:42 PM Does NYT not update automatically anymore? Or just not doing it because I'm incognito.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 06:32:00 PM Dems are going to get pummelled tonight, I'm thinking they actually suffer a net loss in the House at this point. Incredibly, LOL. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:33:50 PM My guess is Rs are going to do well in rural areas where Trump did well. That is not exactly a surprise, but might mean bad things for various districts like KS-02, MN-01, etc. The best Dem hope at the moment is going to have to be on the suburbs. And we don't really have anything in from those sorts of areas yet. Violently agree. The results will be more polarizing than people expect. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: JA on November 06, 2018, 06:34:02 PM I could just imagine what'd happen on Atlas if tonight goes as 2016 did and Republicans overperform expectations, denying Democrats the House and making net gains in the Senate.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 06:34:03 PM lol 10 minutes ago Drudge had their Siren at the top of their page, with text reading: "BLUE WAVE BUILDING", which I found very strange as we just barely began.
They have since removed the Siren. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 06:34:11 PM First call: Rs hold KY-05
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 06, 2018, 06:34:14 PM First House race called: Hal Rogers wins re-election in KY-5.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: rob in cal on November 06, 2018, 06:34:26 PM If Donnely does in fact go down, one consolation for Dems might be that he was one of three Dems who voted for immigration restriction, so conservative in that respect (Manchin and Heidkamp the others in the Senate vote earlier this year.)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 06, 2018, 06:34:32 PM Everyone give their final prediction of IN-Sen and KY-06, before the polls close. I say Braun wins IN, and Republicans hold KY-06, FWIW. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:35:04 PM Here's an interesting election I didn't know was happening: The notorious Kim Davis is currently up by 16 votes in Rowan County.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 06:35:30 PM I could just imagine what'd happen on Atlas if tonight goes as 2016 did and Republicans overperform expectations, denying Democrats the House and making net gains in the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 06:36:00 PM Does anyone have county level results for KY-06? We need to see what counties the results there are coming from.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GMantis on November 06, 2018, 06:36:01 PM Early returns for Braun show him very close to Young in 2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 06:36:42 PM Donnelly keeping it way closer than Trump. Bartholomew County, down not even 10. Trump won by over 30. Needs to keep it close in places like this.
Meanwhile, this returns are going at a snails place. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: TheBeardedOne on November 06, 2018, 06:36:52 PM Why is this forum so dead? this thread as well as the Open Gubernatorial one is slow. Whats the deal?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 06:37:04 PM 538 now rates Braun as 51-49 favorite. Their forecast had Donnelly favored with a 7 in 10 chance.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 06:37:46 PM Trumps approval 52/48 in IN. However, 30% went to support Trump. 34% of voters went to oppose him.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: JA on November 06, 2018, 06:37:46 PM My guess is Rs are going to do well in rural areas where Trump did well. That is not exactly a surprise, but might mean bad things for various districts like KS-02, MN-01, etc. The best Dem hope at the moment is going to have to be on the suburbs. And we don't really have anything in from those sorts of areas yet. Violently agree. The results will be more polarizing than people expect. That's what I'm thinking as well. The geographic and demographic polarization and political trends we witnessed in 2016 could very well be solidified and expanded upon during this midterm election. That wouldn't bode well for any hope of greater civility in politics. It'd also mean Democrats will have a harder time retaking the Senate and winning the EV College vote, despite almost certainly winning the PV in the future (I say *harder*, but not impossible). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 06:37:51 PM Bartholomew County about 40% in, Braun up by 9 points Young beat Bayh here by 24 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 06:38:09 PM Donnelly is doomed.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 06:38:26 PM There is Lexington.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2018, 06:38:30 PM Bartholomew County about 40% in, Braun up by 9 points Young beat Bayh here by 24 Fun fact, that’s Pence’s home county Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 06, 2018, 06:38:46 PM Trump at 52/48 in IN according to exits. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-indiana-senate-poll-10-31-2018 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: TheBeardedOne on November 06, 2018, 06:39:14 PM Where are all of you people getting live updates? NYT site isn't showing me anything. Neither is 538
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 06:39:22 PM Why is this forum so dead? this thread as well as the Open Gubernatorial one is slow. Whats the deal? Like nothing has come in. Just a few precincts in IN and KY, so relax. We've even had meltdowns. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 06:39:27 PM First results aren't that good, but just stay calm... . I had expected that Indiana would be closer than what people did expect. It's early, and we haven't got numbers in from suburban and urban cities in. That rural voters would turn out in massive numbers and increase was a trend that we have already seen and nothing new.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Smith on November 06, 2018, 06:39:28 PM I think I'm bowing out of this until at least 10% of precincts are in...this is too stressful right now and I do have some homework to finish.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 06:39:48 PM Where are all of you people getting live updates? NYT site isn't showing me anything. Neither is 538 Politico Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:40:02 PM The slow leak of rural Indiana results while we all wait for the other polls to close.....
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist on November 06, 2018, 06:40:19 PM Bartholomew County about 40% in, Braun up by 9 points Young beat Bayh here by 24 Mourdock won there by about 8 points in 2012, so that seems like an acceptable result for Donnelly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NeederNodder on November 06, 2018, 06:40:27 PM Why is this forum so dead? this thread as well as the Open Gubernatorial one is slow. Whats the deal? The site is overall slow for me Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 06, 2018, 06:40:34 PM McGrath now down only 3 points with a whopping 1% of returns in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 06, 2018, 06:41:39 PM Donnelly leading in Vermillion County, with 1/17 precincts in. Lucy Brenton is in second place, with 40%, to 48% for Donnelly and 11% for Braun.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 06:42:05 PM Donnelly's leading in a county!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:42:41 PM Donnelly up in Vermillion - Clinton got under 30% here.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 06:43:29 PM Franklin County KY coming in!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 06:43:53 PM Why is everyone so shocked? Indiana going to the GOP isn’t a shock to anyone.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 06:44:17 PM Donnelly won Vermillion in 2012 by 17%. He'll obviously get less this time, but let's hope the margin is strong enough.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: here2view on November 06, 2018, 06:44:33 PM Why is everyone so shocked? Indiana going to the GOP isn’t a shock to anyone. No one is shocked? I don't know what you're reading. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 06:44:35 PM DDHQ has MgGrath Up 54-44
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 06:44:47 PM Donnelly leading in Vermillion County, with 1/17 precincts in. Lucy Brenton is in second place, with 40%, to 48% for Donnelly and 11% for Braun. There’s no way that’s accurate, right? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:45:49 PM Donnelly leading in Vermillion County, with 1/17 precincts in. Lucy Brenton is in second place, with 40%, to 48% for Donnelly and 11% for Braun. There’s no way that’s accurate, right? I'm guessing the Lib. vote got switched with the Rep vote? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 06:45:49 PM It's been nearly an hour, who are we literally only at a few thousand votes...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 06:46:11 PM Quote If you added a 60-38 margin for McGrath along with a very high turnout there, I think that spells good news for her in #ky06. Much of county to go though, and it's still going to be close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2018, 06:46:53 PM ()
For those wondering, DDHQ uses a different reporting site then AP. Also, CNN has McGrath up now Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 06:46:59 PM DDHQ has MgGrath Up 54-44 CNN has McG up by 0.4. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 06:48:34 PM McGrath is doing really well in Fayette. Up 61-37 with 33% in, Clinton only won 51-48.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:48:41 PM NYT still has Barr up, but with fewer votes counted than CNN.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 06:49:16 PM Why is NYTimes slower than CNN in reporting results?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 06, 2018, 06:49:23 PM Donnelly leading in Vermillion County, with 1/17 precincts in. Lucy Brenton is in second place, with 40%, to 48% for Donnelly and 11% for Braun. There’s no way that’s accurate, right? I'm guessing the Lib. vote got switched with the Rep vote? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 06:49:27 PM NYT is going painfully slow tonight, and not even automatically refreshing
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 06:49:45 PM Lol Decision Desk is down.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:50:31 PM Lol Decision Desk is down. Yeah crashed for me too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 06:50:51 PM I think what some of you are forgetting is that Donnelly won by 6% in 2012, so he can afford to underperform his 2012 benchmarks. Obviously not by a ton, but still.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 06, 2018, 06:51:29 PM Why is CNN already on doom mode?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:51:39 PM They're obviously not all in, but I still think the rural counties are looking good for Braun here.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 06, 2018, 06:51:40 PM I think what some of you are forgetting is that Donnelly won by 6% in 2012, so he can afford to underperform his 2012 benchmarks. Obviously not by a ton, but still. problem is he IS underperforming by a ton. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 06:51:54 PM I think what some of you are forgetting is that Donnelly won by 6% in 2012, so he can afford to underperform his 2012 benchmarks. Obviously not by a ton, but still. people are panicking when most of IN hasn't even reported yet, and the dumb models at 538/NYT aren't really sensitive to that, so it's an "All is lost" 2016 narrative. party doesn't start until 7, 7:30. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 06:52:18 PM The Libertarian is at 40% in Vermillion county. I'm guessing that was a mistake.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 06:52:42 PM DDHQ has MgGrath Up 54-44 Congrats congresspeople McGrath and Ojeda! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 06:52:58 PM Also, NYT is auto-updating perfectly fine for me. It does seem to be a bit behind CNN, though.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 06:53:54 PM First results in Vigo 49-46 Donnely. It seems underwhelming if it stays
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:54:11 PM If Donnelly pulls this out, it will not because he repeats his 2012 win. It will be because he runs up huge numbers in Indianapolis and NW Indiana while losing ground everywhere else.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 06:54:13 PM They're obviously not all in, but I still think the rural counties are looking good for Braun here. Though to be fair, Roy Moore looked good in most of the rural counties. Jones racked up the margins in the urban areas and caused massive erosion in the suburbs The paths to victory tonight won't be through the rural areas. They're too Trumpy. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 06:55:19 PM DDHQ has MgGrath Up 54-44 Congrats congresspeople McGrath and Ojeda! Ah yes lets declare victory with 1 percent of the vote in lmao Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:55:29 PM They're obviously not all in, but I still think the rural counties are looking good for Braun here. Though to be fair, Roy Moore looked good in most of the rural counties. Jones racked up the margins in the urban areas and caused massive erosion in the suburbs The paths to victory tonight won't be through the rural areas. They're too Trumpy. Well, thats exactly how Trump won in 2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 06:55:33 PM They're obviously not all in, but I still think the rural counties are looking good for Braun here. Though to be fair, Roy Moore looked good in most of the rural counties. Jones racked up the margins in the urban areas and caused massive erosion in the suburbs The paths to victory tonight won't be through the rural areas. They're too Trumpy. I know it's sacrilegious to start talking about ReAlIgNmEnTs this early in the night, -- but could we be seeing Republican's sweep the rural areas, and Democrats making big gains in the Suburbs and Urban Areas? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 06:56:01 PM Braun is only up 25-30 in rurals where Trump was winning 45-50+.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 06:56:12 PM Why is CNN already on doom mode? They always are Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 06, 2018, 06:56:27 PM Four minutes out from FL/GA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 06, 2018, 06:56:48 PM I'm getting pretty buzzed now. Going to grab a cat!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ExSky on November 06, 2018, 06:56:56 PM Imagine making sweeping assumptions based on 2% of the overall vote coming from rural areas.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 06:56:57 PM If Donnelly pulls this out, it will not because he repeats his 2012 win. It will be because he runs up huge numbers in Indianapolis and NW Indiana while losing ground everywhere else. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:57:10 PM 538 has flipped K-06 back to tossup after having it at Likely R for a few minutes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 06:57:11 PM The Libertarian is at 40% in Vermillion county. I'm guessing that was a mistake. Yes, Lib has about 6%. Braun is leading. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 06, 2018, 06:57:21 PM will braun win?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 06, 2018, 06:57:24 PM Seems like Donnelly is preforming worse in rural areas and better in suburban areas
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 06:57:41 PM First results in Vigo 49-46 Donnely. It seems underwhelming if it stays That's the worst number for Donnelly so far. Bayh won here by 11 over Young. Vigo County is also ~40% in so this isn't just preliminary results. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: rob in cal on November 06, 2018, 06:58:12 PM are any of these Indiana counties with votes in so far very suburban?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 06:58:14 PM Switzerland county (10/12 precincts reporting)
2012 Mourdock 48% Donnely 46,6% 2016 presidential Trump 69,15% Clinton 25,14% 2016 senate Young 62,1% Bayh 34,1% 2018 Braun 64,1% Donnely 32% Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 06:58:51 PM deleted.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 06:59:33 PM If the St. Joseph results stay that way Donnelly is screwed, but I assume that's just an R precinct
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: augbell on November 06, 2018, 06:59:54 PM KY-6, D up by 2% with 6% in, says Fox News
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 06, 2018, 06:59:55 PM I'm getting pretty buzzed now. Going to grab a cat! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 07:00:36 PM BERNIE WINS
IT FINALLY HAPPENED Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 07:00:44 PM Exit polls of CNN have Braun +4
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 07:00:49 PM VA called for Kaine right at the bell
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 07:00:57 PM If Donnelly pulls this out, could be a big indicator of further division of urban/rural divide.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 07:00:59 PM CNN Calls it for Bernie!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:01:01 PM I'm getting pretty buzzed now. Going to grab a cat! Grab them by the.... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 07:01:08 PM Kaineslide!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SCNCmod on November 06, 2018, 07:01:08 PM First results in Vigo 49-46 Donnely. It seems underwhelming if it stays That's the worst number for Donnelly so far. Bayh won here by 11 over Young. Vigo County is also ~40% in so this isn't just preliminary results. Byah was born and raised in Vigo Co Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 06, 2018, 07:01:37 PM Tim Kaine called a winner before a single vote counted by CNN!!!!!!!!! Right at the minute polls closed.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 06, 2018, 07:03:16 PM Tim Kaine called a winner before a single vote counted by CNN!!!!!!!!! Right at the minute polls closed. That's a good sign. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 07:03:27 PM Tim Kaine called a winner before a single vote counted by CNN!!!!!!!!! Right at the minute polls closed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:03:41 PM Braun up 4 in exit poll.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 07:03:52 PM Exit polls of CNN have Braun +4 There's no way it's the exact same as the Trump +4 approval Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horsemask on November 06, 2018, 07:04:59 PM Glad to see Kaine called early. Screw Corey Stewart
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cvparty on November 06, 2018, 07:05:30 PM First results in Vigo 49-46 Donnely. It seems underwhelming if it stays That's the worst number for Donnelly so far. Bayh won here by 11 over Young. Vigo County is also ~40% in so this isn't just preliminary results. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 07:05:51 PM Exit polls of CNN have Braun +4 There's no way it's the exact same as the Trump +4 approval Men: 55-41 Braun Women: 50-44 Donnely https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/indiana Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 07:05:55 PM Barr is up by 7.5 with 2% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:06:55 PM Braun up 4 in exit poll. Checks out with early returns. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: kelestian on November 06, 2018, 07:07:45 PM It's 3 a.m. in Moscow, and i'm so excited to hack all of the competitive senate races)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 07:08:51 PM To aid the narrative that Donnelly will have a very different coalition than he did in 2012, he's currently up double digits in Allen County (with Fort Worth), which he lost in 2012.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 07:09:28 PM Pinellas looking good for Dems so far.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 07:11:03 PM Why is NYT being so painfully slow tonight?!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 07:11:13 PM If Donnelly pulls this out, it will not because he repeats his 2012 win. It will be because he runs up huge numbers in Indianapolis and NW Indiana while losing ground everywhere else. Nate Cohn blatantly plagiarizing me :P https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059960896171245568 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 07:11:23 PM Didn’t Donnelly lose Allen to Mourdock?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 07:12:06 PM 538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cape Verde on November 06, 2018, 07:12:44 PM Donnelly doing horribly in rural areas. So far, the only good news for Donnelly is that he is leading in Allen county(he lost it in 2012). He must put up terrific numbers in counties with 150k+ population (even better than his 2012 numbers). Otherwise he will lose.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SCNCmod on November 06, 2018, 07:13:10 PM Braun up 4 in exit poll. If you look by party ID in exit polls... Braun has 48.4... Donnelly has 46.0 ... hopefully exit polls are off 3% Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 07:13:17 PM Didn’t Donnelly lose Allen to Mourdock? Yes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 07:13:21 PM Florida is already reporting at 8% and they just closed the polls, while Indiana is still stuck at 3%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 07:13:25 PM Braun is behind by 10 points in Ft. Wayne. It seems like he is out performing, but I'll let the IN people determine that.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 06, 2018, 07:14:27 PM 538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning. Where did you find that, I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 07:15:45 PM FL early numbers look pretty good for Gillum and Nelson.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 07:17:20 PM MillennialModerate Projection: Indiana for Braun
*by projection, I actually just mean stating the obvious. Meanwhile, Florida looks to be close. Tilt D... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: McGovernForPrez on November 06, 2018, 07:17:22 PM Braun is behind by 10 points in Ft. Wayne. It seems like he is out performing, but I'll let the IN people determine that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: JA on November 06, 2018, 07:18:06 PM NYT seems to be quite slow tonight in terms of keeping up with the results. Is there a better news site for live, quicker results?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 07:18:12 PM Yo, those Pinellas numbers don't look good for the GOP...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 07:18:31 PM 538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning. Where did you find that, I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts This. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Green Line on November 06, 2018, 07:19:04 PM Allen is a pretty large county with quite a few Democratic leaning areas in the center. Need to see more vote come in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:19:19 PM 538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning. Where did you find that, I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts Their live results are here. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 07:19:22 PM 538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning. Where did you find that, I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts They have a live forecast with their liveblog(https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 07:19:31 PM How is anyone projecting IN when we have zero results from the only two Dem CDs in the state?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 07:19:41 PM Good Night (1:20 am) !
IN doesn‘t look good right now, but let‘s wait ... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 07:19:41 PM Woah. Big jump for McGrath.
538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning. Where did you find that, I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts This. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/ The boxes on the right have their current numbers for every race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 06, 2018, 07:20:20 PM KY6: Nicholas County(100%): Trump +41 / Barr (GOP): +27 => -14 swing , TurnOut: -8%
Robertson County(100%): Trump +53 / Barr(GOP) : +28 => -25 swing, TurnOut: -20% In both cases, GOP did not turn out their previous numbers / there are al lot of Trump / McGrath voters Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SCNCmod on November 06, 2018, 07:21:40 PM Exit polls in GA... have Abrams around 48.41 to Kemp 49.42 (it that were to hold they are heading for a run-off). But exit polls that are 1 pt apart really just means they are virtually tied.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 07:21:53 PM What's going on in Duval
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 06, 2018, 07:22:30 PM About to move to CNN online. NYT's site is a disaster and incredibly behind.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 07:22:38 PM Props to God-Emperor Gillum, imo
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 07:22:38 PM 538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning. Where did you find that, I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/) to the right Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ExSky on November 06, 2018, 07:23:11 PM Governor Gillum and Senator Nelson it is.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 07:23:40 PM KY-6 is looking great right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:23:48 PM Florida only got polled about 8 million times in the pas week and they all roughly showed the same thing so a dem sweep is to be expected.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 06, 2018, 07:24:03 PM NY Times isnt giving probabilities for each race yet
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 07:24:29 PM McGrath now up 8 with almost 40% in
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 07:24:36 PM Spanberger leading in Virginia early in the night! My queen is not dead yet!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 07:24:47 PM from 538 liveblog:
We have about 400,000 early votes in Broward County, Florida, one of the bluest counties in the state. Bill Nelson leads Rick Scott 71 to 28 percent, and Andrew Gillum leads Ron DeSantis 71 to 29 percent. Hillary Clinton won Broward 66 to 31, but we have to wait for the full Election Day vote, which will probably lean more Republican. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 07:24:47 PM NYT seems to be quite slow tonight in terms of keeping up with the results. Is there a better news site for live, quicker results? Yeah all the results sites seem to be horrible this year. Terrible interfaces on them and no county House results on NYT. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 06, 2018, 07:25:12 PM IN-S29 currently 51–49% for the incumbent Republican, Mike Delph, with 10% of the vote in. Delph won reelection 55–45% in 2014; the district voted for Clinton by 12 points in 2016.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 07:25:39 PM NYT seems to be quite slow tonight in terms of keeping up with the results. Is there a better news site for live, quicker results? Yeah all the results sites seem to be horrible this year. Terrible interfaces on them and no county House results on NYT. fwiw I can see county results at the bottom for KY-06 on NayT. Using my phone though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:26:02 PM NYT getting Marion county results now, should be the deciding factor in that race.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 07:26:19 PM The early GA exit poll numbers for Abrams among white women are disgusting ...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 07:26:53 PM Nelson won the Miami-Dade early vote 60-40...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 07:26:54 PM McGrath now up 8 with almost 40% in Where are you watching at? CNN's still stuck at 6% and seems horribly behind Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 07:27:23 PM Donnelly is improving on his 2012 margins in Boone a bit. Boone is home to Zionsville, an affluent Indy suburb.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 07:27:51 PM McGrath is up 7 with 40% in. Wow.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 07:28:40 PM lol Comstock is getting annihilated
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DaWN on November 06, 2018, 07:28:57 PM LOL Comstock is losing by 30%
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 07:29:05 PM ()
The Blanching!!! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 06, 2018, 07:29:29 PM Well I officially have to apologize for all the s*** I've talked about Florida over the years. You're alright, Florida. Keep it up for 2020 and stay weird.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 07:29:46 PM I don't get what's going on in KY-6. Washington Post has McGrath up 6% with 41% reporting, but 538 has Barr as a 92% favorite.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:30:30 PM The early GA exit poll numbers for Abrams among white women are disgusting ... In what context? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 07:30:40 PM lol Comstock is getting annihilated 48% Percent already in. She should go to bed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 07:30:46 PM Shalala won the early vote 52-46.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 07:30:54 PM HOLY CRAP GILLUM UP IN DUVAL
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 06, 2018, 07:31:07 PM lol Comstock
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 07:31:48 PM Manchin losing by 3 according to CNN exit poll
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 07:31:58 PM Where's Mizzoulan right now? Comstock is getting blanched like he predicted.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 07:32:05 PM McGrath up 8.7 with 43% in, and Barr's not even touching 46%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 06, 2018, 07:32:23 PM I don't get what's going on in KY-6. Washington Post has McGrath up 6% with 41% reporting, but 538 has Barr as a 92% favorite. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 06, 2018, 07:32:28 PM Ohio exits look stellar for Sherrod.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 07:32:35 PM The early GA exit poll numbers for Abrams among white women are disgusting ... In what context? The #s are even lower for her than among white men ... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 07:32:44 PM Manchin losing by 3 according to CNN exit poll Uh oh..... whose the person from Texas that swore up and down Manchin was done Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SCNCmod on November 06, 2018, 07:32:45 PM I've nervous about Florida... Republican always makeup ground as the night goes on.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:32:54 PM You can call it for Brown.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 07:33:10 PM How much of Lexington and Frankfort have reported? That's what's key. If there's still a lot of rural vote out left with 40% in, then that's not a good night for McGrath.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 07:33:32 PM Manchin down in WV exit poll OMG could Bagel have been right?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 07:33:45 PM Manchin losing by 3 according to CNN exit poll Uh oh..... whose the person from Texas that swore up and down Manchin was done cue Bagel. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:34:00 PM Manchin losing by 3 according to CNN exit poll Wow... Thats impressive. WV figured to be tough to call, but wow.... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 07:34:02 PM Braun's lead halved. 54-42.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tartarus Sauce on November 06, 2018, 07:34:03 PM Manchin losing by 3 according to CNN exit poll Uh oh..... whose the person from Texas that swore up and down Manchin was done Take early exit polls with a massive truck ton of salt. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 07:34:03 PM NYT still has the paywall ?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 07:34:13 PM McCreedy up in initial vote.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 07:34:18 PM Manchin..... after Donnelly you're next.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 07:35:01 PM Looks like potentially a really bad night for Dems in the Senate if this is right. 46.6% Manchin in exit, 49.4% Morrissey
Racist rural WV hicks strike again? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 07:36:22 PM 538's real-time House odds just jumped to 91.6% for the Democrats.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:36:27 PM Florida 26 is 51-49 in early vote
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 07:36:38 PM 538's KY-06 estimate just flipped from 91-9 Republican to 91-9 Dem. So I don't think you can trust that at all.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2018, 07:37:09 PM 538's KY-06 estimate just flipped from 91-9 Republican to 91-9 Dem. So I don't think you can trust that at all. I think it’s too sensitive Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 07:37:31 PM Hopefully Tester and McCaskill hold on.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 07:37:46 PM Braun is losing the Lake by 34 points. How does fit with previous years?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vespucci on November 06, 2018, 07:37:59 PM 538's KY-06 estimate just flipped from 91-9 Republican to 91-9 Dem. So I don't think you can trust that at all. I think it’s too sensitive They also don't use county-based data. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:38:06 PM Hopefully Tester and McCaskill hold on. Doesnt bode well for either at this point. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 07:38:30 PM Braun is losing the Lake by 34 points. Hoe does fit with previous years? Mourdock lost it by 40. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 07:38:33 PM House seems to be looking very good for Dems now. Yay!
Senate much more disastrous. OH and FL Gov both good. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: riceowl on November 06, 2018, 07:38:52 PM VA-10 called by NBC
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 07:39:04 PM Comstock is gone!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: here2view on November 06, 2018, 07:39:14 PM House looks good but Senate is ok at best.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: beesley on November 06, 2018, 07:39:29 PM Not looking good for Curbelo. Vern Buchanan isn't doing as well as I had imagined either.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 07:39:34 PM Louisville hasn't reported yet, but McGrath is still comfortably up. Wow.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 07:39:54 PM Braun is losing the Lake by 34 points. Hoe does fit with previous years? Mourdock lost it by 40. F#$k Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 07:40:02 PM Florida looks good.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 07:40:08 PM Comstock done and down by 17 points. Why she ran again is beyond me, was she asleep during the VA 2017 election?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: beesley on November 06, 2018, 07:40:20 PM Louisville hasn't reported yet, but McGrath is still comfortably up. Wow. Louisville isn't in KY-06. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 07:40:32 PM The redemption of the often trashed FL Democratic Party?? :P
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 07:40:34 PM Braun is losing the Lake by 34 points. Hoe does fit with previous years? Mourdock lost it by 40. Braun will win this; by how much will be the question. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 07:41:24 PM Louisville hasn't reported yet, but McGrath is still comfortably up. Wow. Louisville isn't in KY-06. . . . whoops! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Orser67 on November 06, 2018, 07:41:25 PM So, what do we call it if Democrats pick up 40 seats in the House but lose 5 seats in the Senate?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 07:42:00 PM So, what do we call it if Democrats pick up 40 seats in the House but lose 5 seats in the Senate? Madness. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: here2view on November 06, 2018, 07:42:02 PM Comstock done and down by 17 points. Why she ran again is beyond me, was she asleep during the VA 2017 election? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 07:42:30 PM Comstock done and down by 17 points. Why she ran again is beyond me, was she asleep during the VA 2017 election? Trump becoming president was the worst thing to happen to her. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 07:42:50 PM No matter how well the rest of the night goes, Ill be chasing votes in Indiana. Really disappointing, but I shouldn't be surprised.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 07:42:56 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 06, 2018, 07:43:13 PM So, what do we call it if Democrats pick up 40 seats in the House but lose 5 seats in the Senate? An example of how polarized our country truly is. I've always been antsy about the Democrats' chances in the Senate but now it looks like my worries weren't so premature after all. Where's my Xanax...? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:43:22 PM Looks like potentially a really bad night for Dems in the Senate if this is right. 46.6% Manchin in exit, 49.4% Morrissey Racist rural WV hicks strike again? Manchin is up around 7 in the exit poll. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 07:43:48 PM Danny O‘Connor ahead 60–40 in OH–12.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 07:44:19 PM Dem chances to win the House up to 95% on 538.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 07:44:53 PM This secured the Senate until, what?... 2024?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: beesley on November 06, 2018, 07:45:22 PM Denver Riggleman is doing rather well. Will it be just Comstock?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 07:45:44 PM Braun is losing the Lake by 34 points. Hoe does fit with previous years? Mourdock lost it by 40. F#$k Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 07:46:13 PM To be fair. Fox exit poll seems better for the Dems. Virtual tie in WV & Indiana
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DaWN on November 06, 2018, 07:47:09 PM It seems reports of Manchin's demise were a little premature.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 07:47:12 PM Man, I even forgot R's dropped 5 million on Comstock.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:47:15 PM Are there different exit poll results for the same races this year? Manchin is looking good in the CNN exit poll.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 06, 2018, 07:47:34 PM VA-10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U06jlgpMtQs Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 07:47:37 PM Looks like potentially a really bad night for Dems in the Senate if this is right. 46.6% Manchin in exit, 49.4% Morrissey Racist rural WV hicks strike again? Manchin is up around 7 in the exit poll. Where is this being reported? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SCNCmod on November 06, 2018, 07:47:49 PM So is Machin up or down in Exit Polls?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:47:59 PM Looks like potentially a really bad night for Dems in the Senate if this is right. 46.6% Manchin in exit, 49.4% Morrissey Racist rural WV hicks strike again? Manchin is up around 7 in the exit poll. Where is this being reported? https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/west-virginia Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 07:48:33 PM So is Machin up or down in Exit Polls? He's currently up in actual vote according to CNN. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: houseonaboat on November 06, 2018, 07:48:36 PM I actually don't think the votes outstanding in KY-06 are good for McGrath. She may not be able to pull this one off.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: History505 on November 06, 2018, 07:48:39 PM Donnelly starting bit up a bit of steam now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:50:14 PM Indiana still inching along, this is brutal.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 07:50:39 PM Wassup with the NYT the formatting is broken
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:50:57 PM 538 has
Manchin 95% Nelson 75% Donnelly 18% Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cvparty on November 06, 2018, 07:51:05 PM Wassup with the NYT the formatting is broken Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 07:51:23 PM lol Shalala won.
How many times did Nate poll this area? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 07:51:23 PM Wassup with the NYT the formatting is broken At least it's good to know it's not only me. On the flip side, this site is working great for me tonight Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 07:51:34 PM I actually don't think the votes outstanding in KY-06 are good for McGrath. She may not be able to pull this one off. Maybe if she wasn't up 5% with 22% of Fayette still outstanding. I doubt the rurals will be enough, especially since she's been keeping Barr's margin down there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 07:51:58 PM Looks like potentially a really bad night for Dems in the Senate if this is right. 46.6% Manchin in exit, 49.4% Morrissey Racist rural WV hicks strike again? Manchin is up around 7 in the exit poll. Where is this being reported? It is the same exit poll, but is now updated. Now in the updated #s they have Manchin doing much better. He was behind 3 in the initial exit poll. https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/west-virginia Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 07:52:04 PM Spanberger up ~1,100 over Brat in Va. 07 with 44% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 07:52:30 PM Wassup with the NYT the formatting is broken At least it's good to know it's not only me. On the flip side, this site is working great for me tonight Same here. Didn't Virginia mention implementing some sort of traffic surge protection as part of her site upgrades? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 07:52:34 PM The NC House results on CNN are nuts. I wish they had the county breakdown.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vespucci on November 06, 2018, 07:53:10 PM NBC calls FL-6 for Waltz.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 07:53:59 PM The NC House results on CNN are nuts. I wish they had the county breakdown. From the initial #s I think they may be predominantly urban counties so be cautious. But it looked very good initially. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 07:54:09 PM Really the only thing looking good for republicans is the Indiana senate at this point
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 07:54:15 PM KY–06: McGrath (D) +0.3 with 70% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 07:54:25 PM Barr catching up.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 07:54:38 PM The NC House results on CNN are nuts. I wish they had the county breakdown. Hear that creaking, cracking noise? That's the NC House gerrymander. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Umengus on November 06, 2018, 07:54:45 PM #FL25: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) defeats Mary Barzee Flores (D). GOP hold. This district voted 50%-48% for Trump in 2016. 0 réponse 0 Retweet 0 j'aime Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 07:54:46 PM Barr up with 66 in
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 07:55:01 PM Someone needs to tell John King that districts like GA-2 and SC-7 report very unevenly by race.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 07:55:06 PM Ohio called for Sherrod Brown, no real surprise.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 07:55:12 PM Some NPR reporter said "NPR is an increasingly purple state" after Kaine's race got called
lmao Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 07:55:41 PM The NC House results on CNN are nuts. I wish they had the county breakdown. The Ohio results on NYT are even nutsier. Dems leading some seats that weren't even supposed to be competitive (OH-15, OH-16) but getting crushed in OH-01? Probably the most frustrating part about House race reporting is the difficulty in getting county-by-county results, which would I think reduce a lot of the confusion about results. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 07:55:48 PM Nearly half in, Brat down by almost 2 percent. This is one of my most sought after scalps.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 07:56:22 PM FL 27 & 26 looking good for Democrats, both with Dems up with 50%+ reporting.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fluffypanther19 on November 06, 2018, 07:57:04 PM msnbc called ohio senate for brown.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner on November 06, 2018, 07:57:08 PM Very tough to see Republicans holding the House or making significant gains in the Senate.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: psychprofessor on November 06, 2018, 07:57:29 PM VA-02 looking good for Luria up 55/45 with 1/4 in
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:57:29 PM Donnelly down to 12% odds on 538.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 06, 2018, 07:57:36 PM All these sites are different. It's giving me whiplash! This is all very confusing. What a mess!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 07:58:01 PM I'm very concerned. Don't like IN-Sen, don't like FL-06.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 07:58:04 PM KY-6 Barr up by about 2.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 07:58:39 PM I usually watch CNN, but their coverage is so awkward, LOL. Might have to switch. Or just refresh this thread.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:58:42 PM Manchin up 14 points with 5% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 07:58:48 PM Donna Shalala won! LMFAO @ ATLAS AND THE PUNDITS AND POLITICIAN!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 07:59:07 PM Donnelly down to 12% odds on 538. Since you asked, AP and Fox are using different exit polls Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 07:59:26 PM KY-6 Barr up by about 2. That's CNN's with 68% in, someone else had McGrath up with 70% in. Not sure who is watching where at this point. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 07:59:30 PM I'm very concerned. Don't like IN-Sen, don't like FL-06. FL-6 was a reach. It was DeSantis's district! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on November 06, 2018, 07:59:38 PM FL 6 was a very though loss for me especially after campaigning for Soderberg and even meeting her
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 07:59:55 PM I'm very concerned. Don't like IN-Sen, don't like FL-06. IN-SEN is a 22% with 10 of 600 precincts in Marion county voting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 07:59:58 PM Leslie Cockburn lost already. I knew that NYT poll was an outlier.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vespucci on November 06, 2018, 08:00:08 PM Shalala, Diaz-Balart, Riggleman win.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 08:00:11 PM Taylor leading by 5 in Va-2 with 37 in
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 08:00:13 PM Big? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Continential on November 06, 2018, 08:00:35 PM Why is West leading
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 08:01:07 PM Not really. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:02:17 PM Exit polls have Bredesen down in TN, McCaskill narrowly up in MO, Menendez easily up in NJ (duh not tossup)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 08:02:22 PM Manchin up 14 points with 5% in. Good news but it's mostly the latte liberal precincts that have reported thus far. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 08:02:45 PM TN Exit Poll:
55—45 Blackburn. TOO CLOSE TO CALL ! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 08:02:50 PM CNN exit polls
FL Gov: Tie FL Sen: Nelson+1 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 08:03:07 PM Exit polls have Bredesen down in TN, McCaskill narrowly up in MO, Menendez easily up in NJ (duh not tossup) I'll take it. :P Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 08:03:21 PM To those watching KY-06: How much of Lexington and Frankfort have to report?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Smith on November 06, 2018, 08:03:22 PM RIP McGrath I guess
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:04:11 PM Dont see a path for either republicans in Florida at this point.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:04:31 PM Here is a link to FOX and AP exit polls, which are different from the other exit polls CNN and MSNBC are using
https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:06:09 PM Dont see a path for either republicans in Florida at this point. Huh... why? In the Gov race, it’s a 20k vote race? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 08:06:10 PM CNN exit polls have
MO Sen: McCaskill +2 NJ Sen: Menendez +16 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:07:28 PM The FOX news exit poll has Morrisey narrowly up in WV, the CNN/MSNBC one has Manchin up...
GRRR Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:08:16 PM You better check FL, Gov is tie with 80+ in. D leads 0.4
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 08:08:27 PM Dont see a path for either republicans in Florida at this point. Huh... why? In the Gov race, it’s a 20k vote race? 900 now Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 08:08:30 PM VA-02 looking good for Luria up 55/45 with 1/4 in Just saw on NBC. She is down to points with nearly half the vote in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 06, 2018, 08:08:31 PM CNN exit polls have MO Sen: McCaskill +2 NJ Sen: Menendez +16 Hahaha "tossup New Jersey!" As for that Missouri number, my mind will be blown if McCaskill somehow wins while Donnelly doesn't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 08:09:08 PM Initial results from Hamilton County: 50-48 Donnelly.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 08:09:48 PM All these fluid live metrics and meters are ridiculous. (Not in a good way).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 08:10:02 PM Here is a link to FOX and AP exit polls, which are different from the other exit polls CNN and MSNBC are using https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis It seems that for most races they have the Democrats doing better than CNN, but they do have Hawley up 3. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 08:10:15 PM Bigfoot. Redistricting reform cannot come soon enough. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Continential on November 06, 2018, 08:10:50 PM Why is West leading in Georgia 2
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 08:11:00 PM RIP McGrath I guess ??? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 08:11:11 PM Manchin's gonna hold on, lol.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:11:38 PM Fl 25 called for the Reps
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 08:11:39 PM TN looks bad.
Really bad ... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 08:11:45 PM Where the hell is muh needle
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:12:01 PM Scott and Desantis just pulled ahead @85
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 08:12:09 PM EV dump from
Dallas County, TX 66-33 BETO Collins, County, TX 45-53 CRUZ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 08:12:19 PM lol 538 has GOP chances of the House at 24% after being down to 8% an hour ago. Again, ridiculous. It tells us nothing other than a snapshot of where we are right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 06, 2018, 08:12:20 PM Wolf needs to calm down, everyone's already hooked, you don't need to oversell it.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 08:12:39 PM Where the hell is muh needle I was just about to ask the same. Well, we have 538's live numbers at least. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:13:24 PM Florida going down in flames...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:13:59 PM lol 538 has GOP chances of the House at 24% after being down to 8% an hour ago. Again, ridiculous. It tells us nothing other than a snapshot of where we are right now. They have no proprietary 'special sauce', its all rehashing of what we already know. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on November 06, 2018, 08:14:14 PM 538 chances for Dems keep going down...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 08:14:33 PM Florida going down in flames... What? A vast majority of the remaining vote is from Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 08:14:42 PM Florida going down in flames... Only 34% in, in Palm Beach Co. and 75% in Miami-Dade. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 08:14:43 PM 538 now has GOP Senate at 96.6%
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 08:14:44 PM Most of Miami is still out guys.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 08:14:49 PM Republican chance at the House up to 33% now, and surging, when it was down to the single digits at one point. I'm getting flashbacks to election night 2016, when at one point Clinton was an 89% favorite. Of course I was called a concern troll in that election as well....
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:15:07 PM EV dump from Dallas County, TX 66-33 BETO Collins, County, TX 45-53 CRUZ Pretty decent #s for Beto I would say. The question is election day vote. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 08:15:17 PM Republicans now 32,4% of holding on in the House.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 08:15:35 PM Its gonna be closer than expected in Florida, but my guy says Broward saves the Dems
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:16:10 PM Most of Miami is still out guys. Exactly. The Pinellas vote is telling, really not much to say when you compare it to 2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 08:16:16 PM Looking bad for dems.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 06, 2018, 08:16:56 PM Looking bad for dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:16:58 PM Yeah this is not looking how I would have hoped in general.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:17:02 PM Looking bad for dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 08:17:13 PM 538 now has GOP Senate at 96.6% Actually it's 97.4%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Don Vito Corleone on November 06, 2018, 08:17:21 PM I am freaking out.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:17:41 PM Looking bad for dems. They never had a shot in the Senate, I dont see anything in the house that looks out of line? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:18:06 PM TX so far looks like about a 4-5 point Cruz win I think, but that is all early vote basically.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:18:47 PM FL is 89-90% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 08:20:22 PM FL is 89-90% in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 08:20:23 PM Barr in the lead now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 08:20:29 PM Spanberger looks in good shape to eek out a victory. Its effectively tied and pretty much all of the remaining votes are from Chesterfield and Henrico.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 08:20:58 PM I think I don‘t like this election ...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Intell on November 06, 2018, 08:21:02 PM 52.7% chance for dems to control the house.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:21:03 PM Allred up 6-7 points in TX-32 early vote. Looks like a pretty easy Dem pickup to me, unless the election day vote is somehow much more GOP, which is not very likely.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:21:11 PM Bratt has pulled ahead.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 08:22:02 PM Well I dont understand why 538 is melting down. But its not making me feel good.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: riceowl on November 06, 2018, 08:22:15 PM Republicans 60% chance to control house what
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 08:22:28 PM Republicans are now at 61% to win the House, lol NYT so predictable.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:22:36 PM Kenny Marchant also down by 10 points in TX-24 early vote LMAO, but that is probably only the Dallas County part. So he will probably do better when Tarrant comes in. But he might actually be in some danger.
If TX is a preview of sun belt suburbs in GA and CA, then Dems have a good shot at picking up a bunch of seats there, based on Dallas County early vote at least. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:22:42 PM Fl 26 is a dead heat with 75% in
Salazar down 5% with similar margins in in 25. A 1-1 split would be decent for Reps there i'd imagine, probably doesnt keep the house, but not bad for them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 08:23:02 PM FWIW, which isnt much, 538 now gives the GOP a 60% in the HOUSE.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 08:23:27 PM Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:24:12 PM I think I don‘t like this election ... Yeah it would be hard to make the early results more painful for Dems. Because it isn't actually clear that it will be an actual fail at this point, although it is clearly not best case scenario for Dems, there are also quite a few bright spots. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DrScholl on November 06, 2018, 08:24:36 PM CNN called FL-27 for Donna Shalala. And Atlas said she hadn't "put it away". Lol.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 08:24:46 PM Man if if the Reps hold the House and gain the Senate tonight, and Trump is re-elected, by 2022 the Democrats won't have had a good election in a decade.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 08:25:12 PM Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade. To be fair, that's what people were saying on election night two years ago. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 08:25:21 PM As long as Dems win all 20 "Dem. favored" and 4 of the "tossup" or "Rep. favored" races according to NYT then Democrats win the house. No need to get hysterical yet. This is a good time to put troll accounts on ignore so they don't rile you up.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LabourJersey on November 06, 2018, 08:25:23 PM I don't get the freakout about the House. All the seats where the most gains are expected aren't in-- NJ, PA, NY, MI, MN, CA etc.
There hasn't been any shocks about the House at this point Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:25:23 PM Uh oh, 538 has it at 60% chance Rs hold the House...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:25:29 PM I’m sorry guys, but there is not that much outstanding Dem vote in Florida.
Florida is gone. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:25:34 PM Shalala won, still waiting on the big district to the south of that.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 08:25:35 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: riceowl on November 06, 2018, 08:25:46 PM Lol 538 readjusted to give Dems a more than 50 50 shot in the house but man that model is sensitive.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 08:25:55 PM Ugh, this really is starting to look like a (less bad) 2016 redux.
I am NEVER trusting the polls again! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:26:03 PM Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade. It is 91% in and both Scott and DeSantis are increasing their leads. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Smith on November 06, 2018, 08:26:14 PM I guess this is 2002 all over again. Took me awhile to finish homework because of this, but I think I'm gonna go make dinner and get some errands done.
RIP Florida, RIP McGrath, might as well guess Heller hangs on at this point. C'ya' I think I'll spend the rest of this night on AAD. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DrScholl on November 06, 2018, 08:26:26 PM Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade. To be fair, that's what people were saying on election night two years ago. At that point Clinton was much further behind with those counties outstanding. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 06, 2018, 08:26:38 PM We're f**ked. Everything's f**ked.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 08:26:41 PM Happy 2016 >:(
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 06, 2018, 08:27:50 PM Certainly a whiplash here.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vespucci on November 06, 2018, 08:27:51 PM Guys there are like 10 calls
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:27:56 PM Kendra Horn up 9 in OK-05 early vote, seems like sort of a big surprise if Dems could actually pick that up. Please come through, sun belt suburbs.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 08:28:05 PM Starting to feel sick.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 08:28:07 PM Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade. It is 91% in and both Scott and DeSantis are increasing their leads. The Dems should've nominated Gwen Graham. She would've pulled Nelson past. But noooooh "mah neoliberal centrist white woman bad" Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 08:28:15 PM Meh, mediocre results so far
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 08:28:37 PM Lmao Atlas overreacting, of course.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 08:28:41 PM I can see Nelson pulling ahead again, but Gillum not anymore
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:28:44 PM Dems freaking out about Florida need to wait about 30 minutes and chill out.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 08:28:44 PM I’m sorry guys, but there is not that much outstanding Dem vote in Florida. Florida is gone. How much outstanding vote do you calculate for Broward? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 08:29:20 PM On the other hand, Beto still leading with >30 in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 08:29:53 PM Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade. It is 91% in and both Scott and DeSantis are increasing their leads. CNN says Broward is 51% in. Miami-Dade is 75% in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 08:30:02 PM For the House: Dems are up big where they need to win and are losing in the palces that would have made a tsunami. They'll still win the House but won't hold a 30 point lead. That's not amazing but not the end of the world
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:30:27 PM From 538 liveblog:
You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 08:30:39 PM 300+ out in Broward
200+ out in Miami-Dade 80+ out in Hilslborough I still believe Gillum and Nelson pull it out! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 08:31:11 PM I feel fine watching CNN and reading the NYT, but Nate Silver is freaking me out right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 08:31:12 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 08:31:19 PM I don't get the freakout about the House. All the seats where the most gains are expected aren't in-- NJ, PA, NY, MI, MN, CA etc. There hasn't been any shocks about the House at this point Let's wait. It's absolutely not a blue wave or blue wipe-out, but it's still a very close / tight election and i think it's going to be very close. Senate is not looking good though. EDIT: Some had expected way too much about tonight. That's what's happening. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:31:42 PM The 538 model is going to be really noisy because it is not using county level results or differentiating between early vote and election day vote.
NONE OF THE RESULTS SITES ARE ANY GOOD, NOTHING HAS COUNTY RESULTS. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 08:32:09 PM Keep in mind that the election day vote in Florida is more Republican. So margin in Broward and Miami will narrow if the vote continue
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: riceowl on November 06, 2018, 08:32:12 PM On the other hand, Beto still leading with >30 in. with no Houston! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: USO2019PB on November 06, 2018, 08:32:43 PM As I expected, Scott is over performing in Florida. Honestly, I think he’s the favorite to win at this point.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Green Line on November 06, 2018, 08:32:47 PM Marion County (Indianapolis) is over 50% in and Braun still up by 14. I except a check mark here soon...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vespucci on November 06, 2018, 08:32:55 PM Menendez wins, sorry Admiral President
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 08:32:57 PM OMG YES!!! I told you guys this would be a GOP sweep. Just wait when we get to Nevada boys!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 08:33:21 PM I
WANT NEEDLE Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 08:33:21 PM Marion County (Indianapolis) is over 50% in and Braun still up by 14. I except a check mark here soon... Probably... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 08:33:25 PM If 90+% of the FL vote is in, and both Rs are leading, then it's time to admit they are both a loss. As well as IN and MO, while we're at it.
Not a good night for the Democrats, even if you haven't hyped yourself up with talk of some wave election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 08:33:30 PM The House still looks perfectly fine; yes, it's probably not a landslide, but Democrats are making tossups look like tossups and are easily winning the Lean D races.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: beesley on November 06, 2018, 08:33:44 PM Not sure if George Holdingought to be worried...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 08:33:49 PM Brat with a ~3K lead with nearly all outstanding votes in Henrico and Chesterfield. I think Abby is going to pull through. :)
2/4 in competitive VA elections isn't amazing but is about in line with expectations. I think it's gone for Luria though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DrScholl on November 06, 2018, 08:34:07 PM If 90+% of the FL vote is in, and both Rs are leading, then it's time to admit they are both a loss. As well as IN and MO, while we're at it. Not a good night for the Democrats, even if you haven't hyped yourself up for some wave election. Much of the Democratic vote is still out, but by all means call the race in your head. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 08:34:16 PM First votes in from ND. RIP Heitkamp
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:34:32 PM Marion County (Indianapolis) is over 50% in and Braun still up by 14. I except a check mark here soon... They must deliver the votes in Indiana by horse and buggy, but yeah this was over from the first 20 minutes, lets call it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: boske94 on November 06, 2018, 08:34:46 PM However Florida count finishes, can we all agree that Quinnipiac polls are garbage?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 08:35:26 PM Time to probably call IN for Braun. Let's rip the band-aid off
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 08:35:27 PM OMG YES!!! I told you guys this would be a GOP sweep. Just wait when we get to Nevada boys!!! <10% chance of this being a sweep, that would involve winning all the semi-competitive seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:35:27 PM We might owe MillennialModerate an apology.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 08:35:27 PM Since apparently the GOV / Statewide thread on that board is toast....
EV numbers from OH actually look pretty decent for DEMs-GOV looking at the EV numbers by County, looks like a winning Statewide Coalition, based upon traditional OH numbers. Of course ED Vote might potentially favor PUBS, but still the margins and map look extremely favorable thus far... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 08:35:39 PM Is Florida really this deplorable?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 08:35:59 PM 538 has Indiana senate race now 39% for Donnelly. Why has this changed so abruptly?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:36:16 PM National House exit poll is finally out, has Dems up 10
54.4% to 44.2% https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls Should be enough to take the House, but it will be through the suburban districts and we may have to wait for CA. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fluffypanther19 on November 06, 2018, 08:36:25 PM 300+ out in Broward 200+ out in Miami-Dade 80+ out in Hilslborough I still believe Gillum and Nelson pull it out! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:36:44 PM Dems freaking out about Florida need to wait about 30 minutes and chill out. Wanna bet? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 08:36:44 PM If 90+% of the FL vote is in, and both Rs are leading, then it's time to admit they are both a loss. As well as IN and MO, while we're at it. Not a good night for the Democrats, even if you haven't hyped yourself up with talk of some wave election. That's horrible logic. Look at where the remaining 10% is coming from and the raw vote total. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:36:52 PM First votes in from ND. RIP Heitkamp Heitkamp about to get Comstockd Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 08:36:56 PM Is Florida really this deplorable? What an HP state Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 08:37:31 PM Guys ... Beto might do this.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Ex-Factor on November 06, 2018, 08:37:51 PM First votes in from ND. RIP Heitkamp Heitkamp about to get Comstockd Blanche came first, keep the term as Blanched Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: beesley on November 06, 2018, 08:38:24 PM Brian Mast and Vern Buchanan win.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 08:38:40 PM BOLD PREDICTION
GOP gains Senate seats, holds the House but Ted Cruz loses Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: InheritTheWind on November 06, 2018, 08:38:50 PM How stupid would it be if Cruz and Nelson both lost
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 08:38:57 PM If Beto wins while Donnelly and Heitkamp lose...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 08:38:57 PM Right now I'm feeling:
House: Democrats + 30-35 Senate: Republicans + 2-3 Possible upset in Texas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 08:39:20 PM Guys ... Beto might do this. I thought we were in hysterics over the #redwave? What the f-ck is going on? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 08:39:25 PM Beto up by over 6 points with almost half of the precincts in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:39:35 PM We might owe MillennialModerate an apology. I take no joy in this. Trust me. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 08:39:45 PM Florida's gone by the looks of it
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:39:54 PM Is Florida really this deplorable? What an HP state I still think the Dems hold on here, but if they lose, the Florida Democratic Party has some serious soul searching to do. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 08:39:56 PM TX early vote is looking amazingly good for Beto. He actually has a shot to win. He is winning Williamson County, winning Fort Bend by 10.
However, the rurals are normal TX, so I think it is still a narrow Cruz win, UNLESS Beto does better in the election day vote (which is possible). Regardless, this is amazing and means Dems need to contest TX in 2020. All credit to Beto. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: beesley on November 06, 2018, 08:40:18 PM Lol Menendez projected to win by NBC
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 08:40:21 PM Dems freaking out about Florida need to wait about 30 minutes and chill out. Wanna bet? I don't know you. But there's something really intriguing about you. I do hope you're right about tonight. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 08:40:31 PM This is definitely a realignment.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Orwell on November 06, 2018, 08:40:44 PM Im not feeling bad about Indiana. Large portions of Indy & Fort Wayne and almost all of Gary are yet to be counted
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:40:56 PM Florida's gone by the looks of it Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 08:41:03 PM Florida's gone by the looks of it Still only 51% reporting in Broward County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SnowLabrador on November 06, 2018, 08:41:03 PM I am sick to my stomach right now, watching my country embrace fascism.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 08:41:29 PM Where are you guys getting results that are far ahead of the NYT results?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 08:41:30 PM If Beto wins while Donnelly and Heitkamp lose... Trump won ND by 40 points and IN by 20 points while only winning Texas by 9 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 08:41:35 PM Look at that Dallas metro area thumping for congressional Republicans. Nothing out from Cali or Houston yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 08:41:43 PM National House exit poll is finally out, has Dems up 10 54.4% to 44.2% https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls Should be enough to take the House, but it will be through the suburban districts and we may have to wait for CA. BRUTAL for the GOP. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:41:58 PM D's back to 64% for the House in 538's model.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Orwell on November 06, 2018, 08:42:26 PM I am sick to my stomach right now, watching my country embrace fascism. The other party isnt the enemy my dear boy, the enemy is those who want to see our nation burn. The other party wants our nation to be successful and they're doing what they think will work Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 08:42:42 PM McCaskill sounds like she is conceding on MSNBC.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LabourJersey on November 06, 2018, 08:42:56 PM Florida's gone by the looks of it Still only 51% reporting in Broward County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 08:43:11 PM I am sick to my stomach right now, watching my country embrace fascism. Except that Democrats are on track to take the House and maybe even knock out Ted Cruz Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 08:43:13 PM Time to pull out the vodka.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Green Line on November 06, 2018, 08:43:20 PM The % remaining in Florida is misleading. This happens every single election. That last couple percentge points never moves the needle.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 08:43:28 PM 538 at 5 in 8 odds for Dems in the House.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 08:43:29 PM As far as FL goes, it's not good and logical to keep pinning hopes on a massive turnout on a pair -- literally -- of strong D counties, especially if raw turnout among minorities is down.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:43:30 PM D's back to 64% for the House in 538's model. The freakout of the past 20 minutes has been completely unjustified. Dems are still comfortably on pace to win the house. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 08:43:34 PM EV #s from TX:
Fort Worth County: 49.1% BETO- 50.2% Cruz Williamson: 51-48 BETO (!!!) Hays: 57-42 BETO Bexar County #s: 59-41 BETO *** Could just be that ED Turnout might be more heavily Working Class Latino, but these numbers are a bit disappointing.... Fort Bend: 55-45 BETO Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 08:43:39 PM The results aren’t bad yet for either party really...nothing to panic over
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 08:43:40 PM I think it's obvious this isn't a blue wave.
Unless there is a REAL realignment in urban areas. But, we'll still win the house, - and I think that's a good thing. Also, perhaps controversially, screw old people. ( : Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 08:43:47 PM The precients reporting from Florida is misleading because of early vote.
Florida is gone. End of sentence. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Izzyeviel on November 06, 2018, 08:43:49 PM Where are you guys getting results that are far ahead of the NYT results? Decision Desk HQ https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/general/kentucky/house_06 (https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/general/kentucky/house_06) you can sign in with your facebook Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:44:19 PM FL is 94% in and both R's are ahead by 1 point or more.
Some R House seats in the Carolinas look like they will flip. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 08:44:45 PM D's back to 64% for the House in 538's model. Nate adjusted the model to react a little slower and wait for projections rather than considering early results. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 08:44:47 PM Are there any House seats that the GOP may be able to flip?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 08:45:17 PM D's back to 64% for the House in 538's model. Why's it varying so wildly? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 08:45:19 PM WTF is the narrative going to be if Democrats lose MO, ND, and IN, but pick up TX?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 08:45:44 PM If Mucarsel-Powell keeps her Miami-Dade margin, she has FL-26 it appears. She's slightly ahead with ~80% reporting (according to NYT), most remaining votes are from Miami-Dade, which she is narrowly winning.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 08:45:52 PM Are there any House seats that the GOP may be able to flip? Maybe a couple in MN, one on Long Island. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 08:46:07 PM WTF is the narrative going to be if Democrats lose MO, ND, and IN, but pick up TX? GOP holds on in states where Trump won by 20+ points? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:46:17 PM WTF is the narrative going to be if Democrats lose MO, ND, and IN, but pick up TX? Cruz is a terrible candidate and no one likes him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 08:46:21 PM D's back to 64% for the House in 538's model. The freakout of the past 20 minutes has been completely unjustified. Dems are still comfortably on pace to win the house. We're lamenting the fact of having to see McConnell declare on TV that this election has given him and Trump a mandate to stack the judiciary with Federalist Society apparatchiks. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Green Line on November 06, 2018, 08:46:29 PM 95% of vote in for Florida and Scotts raw vote margin keeps going up, up, up. Up to 80,000 now.. I think it may be over.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 08:46:57 PM I still think Cruz will win it when rural Texas come in
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Ex-Factor on November 06, 2018, 08:47:06 PM I think it's obvious this isn't a blue wave. Unless there is a REAL realignment in urban areas. But, we'll still win the house, - and I think that's a good thing. Also, perhaps controversially, screw old people. ( : I think the narrative so far is that the gap between urban and rural America continues to widen even further Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 08:47:31 PM Cruz will still win, so you don't need a narrative.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 06, 2018, 08:47:36 PM Barr wins KY-6, according to PBS.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 08:47:41 PM Man that erosion in the Dallas suburbs is brutal.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 08:48:25 PM Quote Per CNN, 21 democrats leading in Republican held House Districts. They need to pick up 21 Republican Seats (two flips have already been called) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 08:48:26 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:48:48 PM Man that erosion in the Dallas suburbs is brutal. I was in Dallas a month ago and every other house had a Beto sign on the front lawn /anecdote Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 08:48:55 PM Looks like Trafalgar is the new gold standard in polling.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 08:48:56 PM This is so depressing that I go back to sleep again ...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 08:48:57 PM Has anyone reported on what's going on with Manchin? If he wins, while four better-placed D's lose...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 08:49:01 PM I dont see Nelson making 80k gap with Broward and Miami
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 08:49:04 PM Spanberger takes the lead! 94% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: super6646 on November 06, 2018, 08:49:13 PM Cruz looking terrible in Texas. Even if he wins, its gonna be narrow af. I kinda want democrats to win just for the lols.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wikipedia delenda est on November 06, 2018, 08:49:13 PM Donnelly has lost according to ABC. :(
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 08:49:15 PM Donnelly got stomped. Jesus.
Sounds like the Senate is gone for the Democrats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 08:49:24 PM Democrats suck at winning elections.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 08:49:36 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:49:52 PM KY-6 called for Barr.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 08:49:55 PM ABC project Braun winning
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 08:49:58 PM The Senate admittedly looks bad, but once again the House looks pretty much as expected so far.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fargobison on November 06, 2018, 08:50:00 PM First votes in from ND. RIP Heitkamp She is getting crushed in two rural counties she lost by 6 and 8 points in 2012...Yeah it is going to get ugly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 08:50:28 PM Losing IN is fine. Donnelly always was a fluke.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 08:50:36 PM Donnelly got stomped. Jesus. Sounds like the Senate is gone for the Democrats. Guess he and McCaskill should have voted for Kavanaugh. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 08:50:38 PM Has anyone reported on what's going on with Manchin? If he wins, while four better-placed D's lose... Manchin was never in real danger because he actually represents his state, unlike the other red state Dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 08:50:46 PM I don't care if we get the House or not at this point, I just want to see Ted Cruz lose.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 08:50:55 PM Democrats suck at winning elections. The party of "we suck less" will just blame Russia again to avoid having to make any changes to not suck so badly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 08:51:00 PM Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 08:51:07 PM A bit of a surreal moment right here - I went to high school with the guy who tweeted this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 08:51:35 PM Luria and Spanberger both in the lead in VA-02 and VA-07. Outstanding areas in both look to be slightly D.
👀 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:51:45 PM Blackburn is up by 25 with 39% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:51:52 PM Indiana looked terrible from the start, no surprise there. Terrible fit for Dems.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 08:52:07 PM NYT projected Barr as the winner!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 08:52:10 PM Man that erosion in the Dallas suburbs is brutal. Wait to see what comes from the Houston Suburbs (Many of which are located in Harris County)... ;) Fort Bend County, might be extremely interesting since EV numbers might actually well be more favorable to Upper-Income Voters, rather than the Middle Class parts of the County, so even though the EV swings are lower than in suburban DFW, might actually catch up as controlled % swing once ED votes start coming in from Pearland, etc... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 08:52:20 PM Donnelly got stomped. Jesus. Sounds like the Senate is gone for the Democrats. Guess he and McCaskill should have voted for Kavanaugh. Well, that's a pretty sad commentary on America. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 08:52:31 PM James is running quite ahead of Schuette
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 08:53:05 PM Well Dems, I hope you're happy about nominating the worst possible candidate possible in 2016 and essentially costing the Senate for the next several cycles in the process
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 08:53:06 PM That said, this bodes well for us Knute Buehlerites in Oregon.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sadader on November 06, 2018, 08:53:20 PM Tonight ing sucks Jesus Christ what
RIP the Democratic Party in rural areas I guess :( Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 08:54:05 PM Well, it looks like a DECENT night in the Senate for Democrats ( I think they lose IN, MO, ND but GAIN AZ, NV and TX is still a Tossup ).
I think Dems take 30+ in the House, and gain quite a few Governors seats. I'll take it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 08:54:06 PM Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted. yesssss. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 08:54:20 PM Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted. 73% in and Brat is more than +2 on CNN. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 08:55:08 PM Luria pulled ahead
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 08:55:57 PM Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted. 73% in and Brat is more than +2 on CNN. NYT has 94% reporting and a ~500 vote Spanberger lead. Outstanding votes are in Henrico (97% in, heavy D), Chesterfield (l82% in, lean D) and Spotsylvania (96% in, lean R). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 08:56:06 PM Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted. 73% in and Brat is more than +2 on CNN. Where are these figures coming from? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 08:56:24 PM Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted. 73% in and Brat is more than +2 on CNN. He is down .02 with 94% of the vote in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 08:56:26 PM Right, so the Florida Democratic Party needs to do some explaining.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 08:57:00 PM Has anyone reported on what's going on with Manchin? If he wins, while four better-placed D's lose... Do you think his support of Kavanaugh will be responsible for Manchin's victory tonight? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 08:57:07 PM If anyone was wondering, Sanders will not win every town in VT
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 08:57:44 PM That said, this bodes well for us Knute Buehlerites in Oregon. Kate still pulls it off by 6+, trust me. ; ) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 08:58:13 PM Right, so the Florida Democratic Party needs to do some explaining. The Florida Democratic party are grand masters at narrow losses. They don't have to explain anything. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 08:58:14 PM What's going on with Missouri on CNN? It's still at 1%. Is it taking that long or are they just really behind?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 08:58:18 PM excuse me but where tf is my needle
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 08:58:29 PM Uhhh.... O'Rourke is still up and nothing has come out from Houston and El Paso yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 08:58:39 PM Hyde-Smith is ahead of McDaniel by a fair margin
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on November 06, 2018, 08:58:47 PM So as I said elsewhere I'm really starting to worry about 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 08:58:51 PM That said, this bodes well for us Knute Buehlerites in Oregon. Have you been reading any of my updates about Oregon ballots returned by Party? ;) REG DEMs +180k > REG PUBs as of 2:31 PM PST #s today with the gap versus RV #s growing by Day.... Maybe, it's just that this Year Republicans all waited to vote until the last minute in Oregon, 15-20% of REG DEMs vote for Knute, and Knute wins 60% of Indies??? Pretty sure you're cracking a joke here... :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wikipedia delenda est on November 06, 2018, 08:59:27 PM MSNBC has projected Manchin.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Ex-Factor on November 06, 2018, 08:59:45 PM Right, so the Florida Democratic Party needs to do some explaining. Never trust the Florida Democratic Party for anything! () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 09:00:17 PM MSNBC has projected Manchin. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 09:00:17 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: °Leprechaun on November 06, 2018, 09:00:24 PM We might not know which party wins the House until after midnight at this point. Maybe if we're lucky we'll know between 11-12.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:00:43 PM I would be damn if Beto wins, while Nelson loses.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 09:00:53 PM Exit poll have Beto losing 4-5 points. Not really suprised
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 09:01:17 PM Bagel's worries are officially quelled: MSNBC has declared Manchin's victory.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: User157088589849 on November 06, 2018, 09:01:36 PM Take out Religion and you destroy the republican party.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 09:01:39 PM Right, so the Florida Democratic Party needs to do some explaining. Never trust the [img width=760 height=149]https://i.imgur.com/kNAxjJ7.png Fixed Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 06, 2018, 09:02:05 PM Braun defeats Donnelly, according to PBS.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 09:02:10 PM So as I said elsewhere I'm really starting to worry about 2020. Democrats aren't going to back their way into a victory in 2020. They need a strong candidate who will run a strong campaign. Don't really see anyone who will necessarily do that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on November 06, 2018, 09:02:59 PM Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 06, 2018, 09:03:06 PM It seems like 2016 all over again in Florida.
Starting to have serious doubts about Miami et al. having enough votes for Nelson and Gillum. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 09:03:20 PM Beto still up with 54% in, but it's pretty tight.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dorko Julio on November 06, 2018, 09:03:23 PM Yahoo! is telling me Braun wins in Indiana. Don't know if this has been posted yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 09:03:37 PM why is texas at 2%
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 09:04:11 PM AZ-Sen is tied on CNN, but Sinema+5 on Fox.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 09:04:12 PM LMAO Bagel and IceSpear.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 09:04:14 PM Where are you at? It's at 54% on CNN Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 09:04:25 PM Has anyone reported on what's going on with Manchin? If he wins, while four better-placed D's lose... Do you think his support of Kavanaugh will be responsible for Manchin's victory tonight? edit: I see Manchin won easily. Yep, the Democrats making a stink over Kavanaugh when they couldn't do anything about him sank four of their own. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 09:04:55 PM Fox News called Blackburn.
Take that, Taylor Swift. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 09:04:56 PM Beto still up with 54% in, but it's pretty tight. Where are you getting these results? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 09:04:58 PM Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election. Has anyone called FL? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 09:05:12 PM Damn, Florida is definitely confirmed HP state.
Texas and the GLORIOUS WEST ( NV, AZ, OR ) may yet deliver us a victory. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 09:05:27 PM I'm surprised how well O'Rourke is doing in TX.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:05:51 PM Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted. 73% in and Brat is more than +2 on CNN. Where are these figures coming from? CNN https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/senate Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 09:05:58 PM Stabenow in no danger according to exits, MN looks solid as well.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 09:06:32 PM Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election. I don't know how I can live in a world where people get punished for voting against people credibly accused of attempted rape. It's sickening. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 09:06:48 PM Braun defeats Donnelly, according to PBS. With the numbers we see right now, I am not surprised if it's called. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:07:08 PM Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election. Has anyone called FL? No, Gillim is within two points of being eliminated. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 09:07:13 PM Amendment 4 should help Ds in FL in the near future.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 09:07:58 PM Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted. 73% in and Brat is more than +2 on CNN. Where are these figures coming from? CNN https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/senate NYT has 94% in with Spanberger ahead by 0.2%. They're way ahead of CNN on that one. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 09:07:58 PM Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election. I don't know how I can live in a world where people get punished for voting against people credibly accused of attempted rape. It's sickening. This is America. Our constitution will forever have wording (even if repealed) calling blacks less than people. We're a backwards culture and there is absolutely nothing unexpected here, awful as it is. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 09:08:34 PM CNN exit poll has Cramer +9.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 09:08:52 PM Amendment 4 should help Ds in FL in the near future. Is there a way to get a ballot initiative in Florida banning gerrymandering? That's the only I hope I can see for Florida right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cashew on November 06, 2018, 09:08:58 PM Well Dems, I hope you're happy about nominating the worst possible candidate possible in 2016 and essentially costing the Senate for the next several cycles in the process Let's be real here, today would have been far worse had she won. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 09:09:21 PM Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election. Has anyone called FL? No, Gillim is within two points of being eliminated. I know both FL races are looking bad, but they can't call them yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 09:09:24 PM Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election. I don't know how I can live in a world where people get punished for voting against people credibly accused of attempted rape. It's sickening. No one was credibly accused of rape (or sexual assault of any kind). That's exactly the problem. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 09:09:40 PM Damn, Florida is definitely confirmed HP state. Texas and the GLORIOUS WEST ( NV, AZ, OR ) may yet deliver us a victory. Assuming you are talking about a Gubernatorial DEM hold in OR there??? Or are we talking only GOV elections? Confused.... :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 09:10:06 PM Well Dems, I hope you're happy about nominating the worst possible candidate possible in 2016 and essentially costing the Senate for the next several cycles in the process Let's be real here, today would have been far worse had she won. My point is her nomination itself is why we're where we are today. I regret the role I played in it even if she would've won the Georgia primary regardless. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 09:10:06 PM CNN just called WV for Manchin.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:10:27 PM Tennessee is the most pathetic state
Jesus Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 06, 2018, 09:10:44 PM NBC calls WI for Baldwin.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 09:10:57 PM Cruz now leading. Slim but he's back on top.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on November 06, 2018, 09:11:04 PM Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election. You may be right. More people still oppose Kavanaugh's confirmation than support nationwide (according to exits, anyway), but it hurt Democrats in the places they needed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:11:22 PM Steve Schale just posted that Broward has 150,000 votes left to count. Right now, Scott's up 55,000. This race is still close but not looking great for Ds, and the governor's race is worse. It's too early to call FL. I have to assume there are provisionals etc.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ronnie on November 06, 2018, 09:12:24 PM Some timeline we’re in, folx.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Baki on November 06, 2018, 09:12:56 PM Nelson might eek it out, Gillum is gone.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:13:31 PM Next update might eliminate Gillum. 97% in and is losing by over 2 points.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 09:13:45 PM wtf is happening in Texas
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 09:13:47 PM Steve Schale just posted that Broward has 150,000 votes left to count. Right now, Scott's up 55,000. This race is still close but not looking great for Ds, and the governor's race is worse. It's too early to call FL. I have to assume there are provisionals etc. 150,000 is *probably* not going to deliver a 55k margin for Nelson, but it's also unclear what exactly is outstanding elsewhere. Dade is supposed to have some outstanding, too. And, as you said, there will be provisionals. I think Florida won't be called tonight and may need to rely on the provisionals for the result. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 09:13:58 PM Politico is further ahead of CNN, and Beto is now up by 200,000 votes.
https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 06, 2018, 09:14:12 PM CNN just called WV for Manchin. DADDY JOE FREAKING MANCHIN OH YEAH OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! () Manchin called the ultimate survivor!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 09:14:17 PM Gillum, Abrams, Jealous all losing ugh.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 09:14:31 PM Any chance of a recount in VA 7?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:14:55 PM CNN just called WV for Manchin. DADDY JOE FREAKING MANCHIN OH YEAH OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! () Manchin called the ultimate survivor!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This cheered me up LOL Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:15:10 PM I think there might be a "Shy Republican Effect."
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 09:15:12 PM KS-GOV
DEMs lead 54-39 with estimated 39% IN.... EV map actually looks great for DEMs.... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 09:15:36 PM At least someone is counting House votes fast...Coffman is losing by 11% in CO-06 with 65% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 06, 2018, 09:16:10 PM Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election. Then people are really screwed up in the head because he should have totally lost support after his hysterics in front of the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 09:16:12 PM Cruz now leading. Slim but he's back on top. Houston hasn't reported yet, though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 09:16:42 PM Politico is further ahead of CNN, and Beto is now up by 200,000 votes. https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/ The difference seems to be Harris County. NYT/CNN don't have it, Politico does. I think Cruz still wins in Texas but it will be close and depends to some degree on the on-the-day votes, which may be more R or more D than the early votes that are 90% of the ballots counted as of now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:16:54 PM Fox call IN for Braun. The Senate stays GOP.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 09:17:32 PM I think there might be a "Shy Republican Effect." You can probably thank antifa for that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 06, 2018, 09:17:46 PM What's up with NJ-3?
McArthur up 62-36 according to CNN, 25% of votes counted. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 06, 2018, 09:18:03 PM CNN calls it for Blackburn.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 09:18:13 PM What tf is happening in Texas o_O
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CatoMinor on November 06, 2018, 09:19:03 PM Cruz is still favored, but Beto seems to have a legit shot. So many big counties still have a lot of votes to count though obviously.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 09:20:11 PM If margins stay the same 65.000 votes yet for Nelson (margins already calculated, so i have calculated the votes from these counties for Scott too). He's behind by 55.000 votes, but there are probably rural counties not fully yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 09:20:16 PM Florida is done. There are still few reps counties left to counter the gap + Broward & Miami
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:20:40 PM Hugin is still winning in NJ with about a third in
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 09:20:50 PM It seems like almost all the networks have called the Indiana Senate race for the GOP.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LabourJersey on November 06, 2018, 09:20:54 PM What's up with NJ-3? McArthur up 62-36 according to CNN, 25% of votes counted. It's most likely that only Ocean County (very GOP territory) are in. MacArthur can still win, but it's going to be really close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:21:20 PM It really looks like D's will win VA-02 and VA-07.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 09:21:28 PM It seems like almost all the networks have called the Indiana Senate race for the GOP. CNN has not. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 09:22:38 PM Gillum seems done. Scott vs Nelson might be really close (the other Dem counties have a bit of % of votes left too). Some rural counties too, and i think it might end up with a margin of 20.000 votes.
NJ has been called already for Menendez. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:22:58 PM Quote I'm calling VA-7 for Spanberger. Very little of the vote out, all of it in Spanberger territory. Unless the ten precincts out in Chesterfield are much more GOP than the whole county, Brat is gone. https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1059990083372113920 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:23:13 PM CNN still has about a net 5,000 vote error in Nelson's favor in Washington County, FL
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: isoscelessquare on November 06, 2018, 09:23:18 PM I'm assuming Washington County FL should be flipped on CNN's map
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 09:23:20 PM Gillum is probably done. I think Nelson may still have a small chance.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 09:23:32 PM Dems underperforming Senate polls + a Trump campaign boost for Rs makes me very nervous about Montana.
Hugin is still winning in NJ with about a third in NYT has Hugin behind by ~20K with 31% in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 09:24:03 PM The GOP will really need to hold well out west if they have any shot in the house and I cant see that happening at this point.
AZ and NV senate will be the most interesting (along with TX) from here on out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 09:24:35 PM Well, my grandma did say that lynching didn't always happen in the back of the woods but also in front of crowds in city squares.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 09:24:36 PM Tom Perez is on NPR right now and he sounds like a corpse.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:24:54 PM FL, Gillum would almost have to win every outstanding vote to win.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 09:25:03 PM Republican House chances are creeping back up... 47% now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 09:25:14 PM Tom Perez is on NPR right now and he sounds like a corpse. So he sounds like what he is. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fargobison on November 06, 2018, 09:25:32 PM CNN exit poll has Cramer +9. That might be optimistic for Heidi. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 09:25:35 PM throwback post
Also, I think there's an outside chance that O'Rourke could outperform Sinema. Would be a hilarious repudiation of the dumb "muh glorious centrism" campaign she's running. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:25:46 PM Hugin is still winning in NJ with about a third in NYT has Hugin behind by ~20K with 31% in. Just flipped narrowly on CNN Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 09:26:06 PM What's up with NJ-3? McArthur up 62-36 according to CNN, 25% of votes counted. Only Ocean County thus far, the more Republican part of the district. Nothing reporting from Burlington County, the more Democratic and larger part. But those Ocean numbers are probably not surmountable for Kim unless his margin in Burlington is unusually large (or the margin in Ocean comes down). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 09:26:21 PM Well Dems, I hope you're happy about nominating the worst possible candidate possible in 2016 and essentially costing the Senate for the next several cycles in the process Let's be real here, today would have been far worse had she won. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 09:26:28 PM TX- EV DUMP:
Harris County: (57.0-42.0 BETO) El Paso County: (74-24 BETO) Nueces County (50-49 BETO).... I imagine this might be the first election in Modern TX history where OT might be approved for various County Level employees, and perhaps even Mandatory OT involved... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: History505 on November 06, 2018, 09:26:32 PM Beto doing well so far.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Orwell on November 06, 2018, 09:28:06 PM Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:28:17 PM How on earth were the polls so off in TN (and IN and MO, but especially TN)?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 09:29:01 PM NBC calls the House for the Democrats.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 09:29:06 PM Remember the D 40+ predictions?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 09:29:42 PM Dems probably regretting putting Amendment 4 on the ballot in 2016, those extra a million or so disenfranchised minority votes could've came in handy.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CatoMinor on November 06, 2018, 09:29:46 PM Angus King is doing poorer than expected
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 09:29:59 PM What on earth is happening Democrats might win Kansas, South Dakota, VA-02, and OK-5 but loose FL and IN.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 09:30:05 PM Uh, Bourdeaux is up 13% with 90% reporting according to NYT?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 06, 2018, 09:30:06 PM If only everyone was like Manchin lmao.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:30:22 PM Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:30:39 PM NBC calls the House for the Democrats. Where? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 09:31:05 PM Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future. Keep nominating moderate Dems and me and people like me will dedicate every once of our existence to make sure Dems never win again, because that's the only real way to punish the country for this garbage. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 09:31:22 PM Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fluffypanther19 on November 06, 2018, 09:31:34 PM NBC calls the House for the Democrats. Where? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: _ on November 06, 2018, 09:31:34 PM Everyone, if you're on NYT look at GA-7.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:31:44 PM Uh, Bourdeaux is up 13% with 90% reporting according to NYT? The Gwinnett early vote was huge for Abrams, which bodes well for Bourdeaux as well. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 09:31:59 PM NBC calls the House for the Democrats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 09:32:08 PM Crow leads Coffman by 11 with most results in. Can probably call this one.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 09:32:22 PM Haven't seen any professional number-crunching on this, but at a glance Kelly looks like she's in really good shape?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 09:32:28 PM Here's a number to watch. Democrats are currently down 0.8% in the House popular vote. That's without NY, CA, OR, or WA.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 09:32:42 PM NBC calls the House for the Democrats. Where? Drudge had this headline linking to NBC **NBC PROJECTS DEMS TAKE HOUSE** https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/2018-house-election-results-n931416 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:33:02 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 09:33:30 PM Menendez could be in big trouble.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 09:33:32 PM What on earth is happening Democrats might win Kansas, South Dakota, VA-02, and OK-5 but loose FL and IN. The same world where VT, MA, and MD vote Republican. There's less partisanship in governor races. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 09:33:37 PM Fox News now called the House for the Dems as well.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 09:33:55 PM This is amazing.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 09:33:57 PM Beto doing well so far. I think he has a chance of winning. That would be great, and a good offset to the FL race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 09:34:04 PM I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican tonight, period.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:34:06 PM Sherrod Brown's margin is collapsing.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:34:07 PM Fox called the House for the D's.
Gillum is eliminated in FL. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 09:34:14 PM Fox News now called the House for the Dems as well. Way too early for that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 09:34:18 PM Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future. Yes, if you see what Beto is doing, than you would know it would be a huge mistake to choose for moderates, especially since "moderates" aren't having a good night too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 09:34:36 PM Here's a number to watch. Democrats are currently down 0.8% in the House popular vote. That's without NY, CA, OR, or WA. That's bonkers given the GCB numbers we've been hearing all cycle. Any idea what the benchmark is without those states? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SnowLabrador on November 06, 2018, 09:35:01 PM Really?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 09:35:12 PM Menendez could be in big trouble. NYT called the race for him so unless he doesnt want to go back to DC, I think hell be fine. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 09:35:18 PM I can see the House call...Republicans haven't won any Clinton districts yet, or really any other district they need to hold the House.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:35:19 PM Both NBC and Fox call house for Democrats. Isn't that a bit early?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:35:36 PM Steve Schale is saying FL-SEN will be in recount territory.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:35:55 PM What is? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 09:35:56 PM Both NBC and Fox call house for Democrats. Isn't that a bit early? Yes. Wow. I've been bullish on Democrats' chances all night, and that's really early. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 09:36:20 PM Menendez could be in big trouble. NYT called the race for him so unless he doesnt want to go back to DC, I think hell be fine. He's losing Union County, where Clinton won by 35 points, with 20% reporting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 09:36:22 PM Both NBC and Fox call house for Democrats. Isn't that a bit early? Yes. Wow. I've been bullish on Democrats chances all night, and that's really early. Same, it seems very early. But I'll take it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 09:36:31 PM 538 live seems to not be updating much, so we're really missing the needle now.
Here's a number to watch. Democrats are currently down 0.8% in the House popular vote. That's without NY, CA, OR, or WA. That's bonkers given the GCB numbers we've been hearing all cycle. Any idea what the benchmark is without those states? Of course the Democrats will win the popular vote, but that might not be enough to win the House. They won the popular vote in 2012. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:36:51 PM CNN finally calls it for Braun and Baldwin.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:37:00 PM I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican tonight, period. Would love to hear the mental gymnastics on this one Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 09:37:00 PM I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican tonight, period. Not sure I agree. They will still have solid control over leading this country. I would also feel REALLY good about going into 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:37:10 PM CNN declared IN for Braun.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: InheritTheWind on November 06, 2018, 09:37:23 PM I feel a tad antsy about calling the House yet, but I will say I’d much rather be the Dems right now than the GOP
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 09:37:23 PM TX-23--- Ortiz-Jones (D) up 800 votes....
SA 'Burbs/ El Paso Co sliver of district or SouthTex ??? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 09:37:33 PM Steve Schale is saying FL-SEN will be in recount territory. a contentious, hotly contested recount in Florida that is a new one, folks Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 09:37:40 PM Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future. Lol compare and contrast Bredesen and Beto. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 09:37:57 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 09:39:02 PM Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so.
Texas uber alles. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 09:40:17 PM Dems need to someone like Beto running for president in 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 06, 2018, 09:41:12 PM Sherrod Brown's margin is collapsing. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 09:41:18 PM I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican tonight, period. Would love to hear the mental gymnastics on this one Are you serious? You would rather be the party that retains one chamber rather than the party that takes a chamber and wins several governorships? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: super6646 on November 06, 2018, 09:41:37 PM Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so. Texas uber alles. What are your thoughts? I'm totally shocked, but thats probably a place I wanna see a dem win just for the reaction and cause Cruz is disgusting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 09:41:46 PM I want to believe O'Rourke can perform his exorcism on Texas to cast out its demonic changeling senator, but I am not confident of it.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vespucci on November 06, 2018, 09:42:03 PM Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so. Texas uber alles. Really, it's more "good D night but bad in FL" than anything. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 09:42:28 PM Calling the Senate for Republicans
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 09:42:29 PM CNN calls PA5 and PA17 for Democrats.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 09:42:36 PM - O'Rourke in a good position to win
- Menendez struggling - Control for the House up in the air - Closely watched race in Florida coming down to a recount God is some kind of horrible Twitter election meme-takester, folks Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:42:43 PM You have to give a lot of credit to Beto. He’s not going to win obviously but the way he did things his way and did not take big money or go negative - very very bold. Showed that he can make Texas at least competitive.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 09:42:51 PM Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future. Lol compare and contrast Bredesen and Beto. yes populism, partisan politics and ideology > above anything (even what some of you might call: common sense). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 09:42:55 PM The NYT map is so slow and the CNN map isnt loading. I am sad.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 09:43:13 PM This night is WEIRD. AS. HELL.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 09:43:16 PM CNN hasn't called the House yet. Is it, by their estimate, too close to call? Or are they after views and ratings by keeping the election artificially going? hmmm......
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 06, 2018, 09:43:20 PM Why is Texas so slow
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: USO2019PB on November 06, 2018, 09:43:41 PM CNN declared IN for Braun. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 09:43:58 PM Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so. Texas uber alles. Really, it's more "good D night but bad in FL" than anything. Before tonight, I was willing to conceed that Indiana and Missouri were each a coin toss and wound't lose sleep over losing each of them, but losing Florida would really hurt. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 09:44:15 PM This night is WEIRD. AS. HELL. Nothing makes sense and everything is on fire. Welcome to the realm of the Unbeatable Titan. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 09:44:16 PM Kim Davis lost. Stay strong.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:44:31 PM With 53% in Kemp is up by 13 points in GA.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 09:44:36 PM I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican tonight, period. Would love to hear the mental gymnastics on this one Are you serious? You would rather be the party that retains one chamber rather than the party that takes a chamber and wins several governorships? Exactly, the momentum is very clear tonight, -- rural areas will swing heavily towards the Republicans ( THUS, they will take and probably hold the Senate ) but Democrats will take the House ( thanks to strong Urban and Suburban margins ) with a CONFIDENT margin ( 30-35 ) and be able to investigate and expose the Trump administration. That was Trump's greatest fear tonight, - losing even a single branch of government, because now thanks to our amazing system with separation of power in government Trump and his administration will have nowhere to hide. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 06, 2018, 09:45:15 PM Never will I ever trust the polls again, lol.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:45:20 PM Brat is down 1700 votes. I think he might be done.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Green Line on November 06, 2018, 09:45:21 PM Jim Sensenbrenner losing by 11 points with almost half in (per CNN)??? Wtf happened there. This is a pretty homogeneous district.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 09:45:33 PM This night is WEIRD. AS. HELL. Nothing makes sense and everything is on fire. Welcome to the realm of the Unbeatable Titan. We're in such bizarro world I wouldn't be surprised at this point if Heller and O'Rourke won simultaneously, lol. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:45:34 PM The NJ results are very uneven right now. Some of the northeast blue districts have few votes counted.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 09:46:01 PM NYTimes gives Nelson a 54% of winning, so let's not melt down yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 09:46:08 PM Why is anyone calling the House while people are still voting? What kind of dumb logic is that, this is a good way to push down turnout.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 09:46:10 PM Taylor seems to have somehow snatched the lead back in VA-02...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 09:46:22 PM Never will I ever trust the polls again, lol. THIS! Except maybe Selzer and Marquette...we'll see. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner on November 06, 2018, 09:46:23 PM This night is WEIRD. AS. HELL. Nothing makes sense and everything is on fire. Welcome to the realm of the Unbeatable Titan. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 06, 2018, 09:46:35 PM CNN calls it for Menendez.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 09:46:48 PM Calling it for Dean Heller
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 09:46:50 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 09:47:01 PM Dems need Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:47:07 PM Ocean and Monmouth County have reported 350,000 votes on NYT. Hudson, Bergen, and Passaic have 75,000 votes. The Menendez numbers don't mean anything yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:47:09 PM CNN calls it for Menendez. NJ gonna NJ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:47:19 PM Quote Curbelo has conceded, per source familiar https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1059999630325366785 Another pick up for D's. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 06, 2018, 09:47:19 PM Staubenow looking quite weak with 14% in.
55% in Genesee (68% in 2012), 60% in Wayne (76%). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 09:47:30 PM Does anyone else think Democratic money will pour into Mississippi in the event it's the deciding race and it will become quickly nationalized?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 09:47:32 PM In VA, Spanberger is looking great up almost 2,000 in VA-07 with 97% reporting, but Taylor has pulled ahead by 1,000 in VA-02 with 91% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 09:47:32 PM Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so. Texas uber alles. What are your thoughts? I'm totally shocked, but thats probably a place I wanna see a dem win just for the reaction and cause Cruz is disgusting. It still looks to me like cruz is favored, but it will be close. Beto has a shot if the election day vote is better than the early vote. Basically Beto is performing amazingly in the suburbs, and is doing what he needed to do there. But it is the same story as everywhere else in the country in the rurals - 2016 style results there. And there are too many rurals still left to report. But overall, even a narrrow Beto loss is an amazingly good thing for TX Dems, and it means Dems need to contest TX in 2020. And Beto should probably be at least VP. I would say Dems should look very strongly at a Gillum/Beto or Beto/Gillum ticket if Gillum loses narrowly also. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 09:47:45 PM Yeah, Menendez has this. It looks like Union County was a fluke.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 09:47:50 PM CNN projects Menendez winning.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 09:47:50 PM Why is anyone calling the House while people are still voting? What kind of dumb logic is that, this is a good way to push down turnout. That is the intention. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 09:47:56 PM Kim Davis lost. Stay strong. Get that ________ out of there! (You fill-in the blank.) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 09:47:56 PM James ahead in Michigan, but Michigan will probably vote to legalize marijuana.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:47:58 PM CNN declared IN for Braun. I called it a few days ago. ;) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: °Leprechaun on November 06, 2018, 09:48:09 PM 538 is a rollercoaster. GOP House chance now at 34.8%
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 09:48:23 PM Taylor seems to have somehow snatched the lead back in VA-02... Outstanding areas look pretty even so I'll bet his margin holds. His lead is ~1K. But Spanberger looks to be in great shape. 2/4 is not bad for the competitive VA races. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:48:31 PM Does anyone else think Democratic money will pour into Mississippi in the event it's the deciding race and it will become quickly nationalized? If they do, it will be pointless. MS won't flip in this environment (or any other we can think of.) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 09:48:31 PM Dems need Yep. Beto seems like the obvious best choice for 2020, assuming he doesn't win tonight. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 09:48:45 PM This night is WEIRD. AS. HELL. Not really, it is basically following your racist hick thesis quite well. It is not as though it is not possible to explain. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:48:46 PM 99% in, Scott is up by 0.8.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:48:49 PM R's may win multiple D House seats in MN.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:49:08 PM I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican tonight, period. Would love to hear the mental gymnastics on this one Are you serious? You would rather be the party that retains one chamber rather than the party that takes a chamber and wins several governorships? What this shows is the Democratic Party, despite having the better ideas - can’t win when it matters. They are horrible at getting their message across. The fact tonight isn’t a Tsunami after the way Trump has conducted himself and the way the GOP Congress has blindly cheered him on - says everything you need to know. Losing all the tossup Senate zests, BARELY winning the house and losing the two Gov races that were the big national stories ..... very little to cheer about. How you’d rather be the Dems is beyond me. I’d rather control the White House and the Senate. Then barely control the house and have a horrific bench that can’t produce a canidate capable of beating the biggest ing clown this country has ever seen Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 09:49:09 PM Tester probably still wins Garfield County tbqh imho
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 09:49:17 PM Luria still ahead on SBE.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 09:49:32 PM Why is Texas so slow It is normally slow, but normally nobody notices because nothing is competitive. :P Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 09:49:55 PM Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so. Texas uber alles. What are your thoughts? I'm totally shocked, but thats probably a place I wanna see a dem win just for the reaction and cause Cruz is disgusting. It still looks to me like cruz is favored, but it will be close. Beto has a shot if the election day vote is better than the early vote. It usually is in Texas, iirc. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 09:50:19 PM Scott is up by 1 point.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 09:50:41 PM Luria still ahead on SBE. Same on CNN with 94% in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 09:50:42 PM My head hurts
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 09:50:43 PM Why is Texas so slow Raw voter turnout numbers roughly doubled maybe between '14 and '18? Also, TX is kind of stingy when it comes to funding government services (I say that with a lotta love for Texas where I lived for Four Years, but kept paying insane sales taxes for services that local government couldn't deliver (no state income taxes). So Yes--- don't expect Texas to county quickly, and even if OT might have approval in a few places, I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers decrease the later it gets in the night, since TO levels likely exceeded budget numbers... ;) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 09:50:55 PM Nate Cohen says a Beto win is outside the MoE. It looks like all of his vote is in and Cruz's vote is still out.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 09:50:56 PM FL-26 called for Mucarsel-Powell on NPR.
We all expected this but further proof that GOP is purging itself of anybody mildly lukewarm on Trump. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: vileplume on November 06, 2018, 09:51:28 PM Kim Davis lost. Stay strong. I'm a British poster (and gay) and I try not to comment on American topics because I don't know enough about it but this makes me soooooo happy especially seen as she was out in eastern Europe trying to stir up homophobic feeling. Remember if the night doesn't go how you expected at least try to remember this idiot lost in Kentucky. Love from the Uk :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 09:51:37 PM NYT model has Beto losing by 9!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 09:51:58 PM This night is WEIRD. AS. HELL. Not really, it is basically following your racist hick thesis quite well. It is not as though it is not possible to explain. Good point. I will now accept my accolades. :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 09:52:17 PM NYTimes gives Nelson a 54% of winning, so let's not melt down yet. Is this a new estimate, or one they gave before the election? Post link please/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:53:10 PM Broward now 98% in. Scott still up by 0.8% plus the error in Washington County.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: °Leprechaun on November 06, 2018, 09:53:12 PM GOP House @ 30.6% @538
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 09:53:23 PM NYTimes gives Nelson a 54% of winning, so let's not melt down yet. Is this a new estimate, or one they gave before the election? Post link please/ Estimate https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 09:53:44 PM VA-7 will be called any moment for Spanberger. Lead just got bigger (almost 2k now) with just 3% left
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:54:03 PM Some VA insiders are saying Luria has one.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 09:54:15 PM CO-6 Coffman projected loser aww yeah
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 09:54:27 PM DAVIDS WINS
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:54:32 PM NYTimes gives Nelson a 54% of winning, so let's not melt down yet. Is this a new estimate, or one they gave before the election? Post link please/ Estimate https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html This doesn't account for the "phantom" votes in SE FL Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 09:55:12 PM Michigan Senate map so far looking a lot closer to the Trump map than Stabenow's last map...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 09:55:13 PM Before tonight, I was willing to conceed that Indiana and Missouri were each a coin toss and wound't lose sleep over losing each of them, but losing Florida would really hurt. Yeah FL is the main disappointment here. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:55:17 PM Yoder just lost.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 09:55:25 PM CO-6 Coffman projected loser aww yeah bless. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 09:56:02 PM The momentum is very clear tonight, -- rural areas will swing heavily towards the Republicans ( THUS, they will take and probably hold the Senate ) but Democrats will take the House ( thanks to strong Urban and Suburban margins ) with a CONFIDENT margin ( 30-35 ) and be able to investigate and expose the Trump administration. That was Trump's greatest fear tonight, - losing even a single branch of government, because now thanks to our amazing system with separation of power in government Trump and his administration will have nowhere to hide.
I'm very confident with tonights result. Disappointed with some results yes, but confident. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 09:56:06 PM Looks like Florida is done for Nelson.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 09:56:07 PM House goes to the Dems, never really in doubt.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 09:56:14 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 09:56:25 PM Off topic but is Hogan about to lose?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 06, 2018, 09:56:43 PM Max Rose is winning with 85% of the vote in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 09:56:49 PM Apparently Kansas is now part of the Democratic freiwal.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on November 06, 2018, 09:56:59 PM GOP House @ 30.6% @538 And <5% on NYT. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:57:07 PM HUGE east-west polarization in ND. Not a good sign for Tester
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 09:57:10 PM VA-7 will be called any moment for Spanberger. Lead just got bigger (almost 2k now) with just 3% left Barring a Beto victory, this is the race that will make me happiest tonight if that holds. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 06, 2018, 09:57:20 PM Michigan Senate map so far looking a lot closer to the Trump map than Stabenow's last map... May have to worry about Minnesota next. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 09:57:35 PM We're in such bizarro world I wouldn't be surprised at this point if Heller and O'Rourke won simultaneously, lol. Nah, it is not actually that bizarre or unexpected I don't think. Somewhat, but not that much at all. This is following pre-existing trends and extending them. Heller is going down. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 09:57:47 PM Yeah, it looks like we won the house....but FL is disappointing.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 09:58:28 PM KOBACH LOSES
DEMOCRATIC FREIWAL IN KANSAS Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 09:58:29 PM Errors in VA-2, Luria ahead by 4K on SBE.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wikipedia delenda est on November 06, 2018, 09:58:53 PM MSNBC projects Kelly defeats Kobach.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 06, 2018, 09:58:59 PM Bredesen just lost. He was too wishy washy
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:59:10 PM Manchin's margin has also shrunk to just 2%
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 09:59:11 PM I was ridiculed for not blindly trusting NBC/Marist polls, though.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 09:59:24 PM LAURA KELLY JUST GOT CALLED WINNER
don't care if this is the wrong thread but WOW Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 09:59:26 PM Dan Donovan about to lose and Kansas goes to the Democrats this is a really weird election.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:59:37 PM I was ridiculed for not blindly trusting NBC/Marist polls, though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 09:59:37 PM So a little after 9 everything looked bad for Democrats, now it's looking better?
(Just trying to confirm, I had to drive for a half-hour) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 09:59:47 PM CNN projects NJ11 and FL26 for Democrats.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 09:59:55 PM Miami-Dade now up to 98%. Stick a fork in Nelson.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 10:00:18 PM So a little after 9 everything looked bad for Democrats, now it's looking better? (Just trying to confirm, I had to drive for a half-hour) Senate looks bad, but we should win the house. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 10:00:30 PM Kansas helps.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 10:00:33 PM Well, R+2 for now, at worst, inthe Senate.
The question will be the House. Unless it is a good margin, Pelosi's finished. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:00:52 PM Romney wins.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 06, 2018, 10:01:10 PM So a little after 9 everything looked bad for Democrats, now it's looking better? (Just trying to confirm, I had to drive for a half-hour) Atlas overreacting to everything. House looking good, Senate bad but wasn’t that expected? Florida is cancer outside of its beautiful weather in the winter and nature Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 10:01:11 PM OH MY GOD I LITERALLY LOST TRACK OF TIME. I thought it was an hour later, but it only just turned 10pm. Head .
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:01:14 PM WoW. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 10:01:34 PM OHMYGODLURIAWON
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 10:01:35 PM Who is independent Sam McCann? Currently winning Pike County in the Illinois gubernatorial race and also doing really well (like 20%+) in some adjacent counties.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 10:01:40 PM NBC just called it for Luria
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:01:42 PM Honestly, he should be much better than Orrin Hatch. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:01:56 PM So a little after 9 everything looked bad for Democrats, now it's looking better? (Just trying to confirm, I had to drive for a half-hour) Reality has set in about how bad this Senate map was for Dems when rural voters are still Trumpy. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 10:02:10 PM HUGE east-west polarization in ND. Not a good sign for Tester I didn't realize he had moved States Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 10:02:14 PM NBC called it for Max Rose wow.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 10:02:24 PM Honestly, he should be much better than Orrin Hatch. No. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:02:46 PM DAN DONOVAN LOST WTF????
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 10:02:47 PM Honestly, he should be much better than Orrin Hatch. He'll probably speak up/out against trump once every blue moon. Certainly refreshing for Utah. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: American2020 on November 06, 2018, 10:02:48 PM Kansas is my consolation.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 10:02:54 PM Paulsen officially out per AP. Jason Lewis is next hopefully.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 10:02:56 PM Democrats are cooking in these house races.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:02:57 PM Who is independent Sam McCann? Currently winning Pike County in the Illinois gubernatorial race and also doing really well (like 20%+) in some adjacent counties. Trump republican who decided to take on Rauner for being a Rino. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 10:03:10 PM Off topic... but Nh dems are leading in the NH state senate
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:03:37 PM Michigan Senate map so far looking a lot closer to the Trump map than Stabenow's last map... May have to worry about Minnesota next. Outstate hasn't been totaled for Evers. If that area has swung as it looks to have, that will help him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: InheritTheWind on November 06, 2018, 10:03:41 PM Hot damn, Donovan lost.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 10:03:49 PM CNN has been calling quite a bit of Dem wins for the House, that were formerly GOP held.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 10:03:58 PM Kobach is an excellent scalp. See guys, it's not ALL bad tonight.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 10:04:07 PM Apparently Kansas is now part of the Democratic freiwal. The numbers for KS-GOV appear to be the case, based upon current data, and DEM performance, even in some pretty traditionally PUB territory.... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:04:11 PM I really need a bubble bath and some champagne. My Lord.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:04:13 PM RIP Ojeda.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Helsinkian on November 06, 2018, 10:04:23 PM Maga hats in Twitter comments complaining that Fox News is now liberal after House call.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 10:04:34 PM Beautiful, flawless Laura Kelly
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:04:40 PM DAN DONOVAN LOST WTF???? I'll take it. THANK YOU STATEN ISLAND!! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 10:04:46 PM I changed my FL-SEN prediction from Scott to Nelson at the very last minute because the "gold standard" Quinnipiac showed him winning by 7, lmao.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 10:04:49 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:04:52 PM Manchin is only up 2% now....
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 10:05:07 PM Yellowstone is 75% in in Montana, and it seems solid for Tester. Who knows.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:05:12 PM DAN DONOVAN LOST WTF???? Good, but not THAT surprising. The NYT Siena poll showed trouble. I seriously considered making it a D pickup in my predictions, but sadly didn't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 10:05:12 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:05:46 PM this is basically a better version of 2016. I don't see a 2020 realignment.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Atlas Force on November 06, 2018, 10:05:54 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:06:01 PM If ever there was a true realignment during a midterm, this is it. What kind of crazy election has Democrats salivating over Texas and Kansas on an otherwise "meh" night?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 10:06:22 PM Sinema barely won the Maricopa County early vote.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 10:06:26 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. Ruined my night. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 10:06:33 PM McSally losing Maricopa with 84% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 10:06:57 PM Sinema is winning Maricopa 49.1% to 48.8% with 84% in.
Is it possible for a Democrat to win Maricopa county and lose the state? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:07:02 PM Not that it's in doubt at this point, but 538 finally got back above 90% for D's to take the House.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:07:10 PM MT TREASURER:
Are Tester's current numbers in Lewis and Clark/Yellowstone enough to win? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 10:07:19 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. FL Dems are like the Buffalo Bills of American politics. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2018, 10:07:37 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 10:07:55 PM FWIW
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:08:12 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. You know, that's pretty much it. I can accept that rural Trump states were too difficult for Donnelly, Heitkamp, etc. to hold, and Beto's probably a bridge too far, but Florida disappoints. At least it's become more Democratic with Amendment 4. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:08:13 PM Beto is toast
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 10:08:21 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 06, 2018, 10:08:21 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 10:08:22 PM MT TREASURER: Are Tester's current numbers in Lewis and Clark/Yellowstone enough to win? Definitely. These are terrible numbers for Rosendale, actually. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: here2view on November 06, 2018, 10:08:36 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:08:42 PM Queen Sharice WINS in KS-3. !!!.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wikipedia delenda est on November 06, 2018, 10:09:02 PM MSNBC projects Cramer. :(
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 10:09:04 PM The Democrats are still ahead in OK-5
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:09:12 PM CNN projects KS3, PA6, MN3, and NY1 for Democrats.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 10:09:20 PM I know this isn't quite the place for it, but it must be asked:
What are the Democrats going to do with Chuck Schumer. After this disastrous night as far as the senate is concerned, they damned well can't keep him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:09:25 PM https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:09:25 PM Cramer wins.
RIP Heidi Heitkamp will win Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 10:09:33 PM I know it's like there are elections in each chamber that are basically occurring in different countries, but this is damn weird.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:09:36 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. Also OH and MI are concerning, but not entirely unexpectedly so. But mainly it is Florida. And some of the NJ House races have Rs up now, but I think Dems may end up winning those (we will have to see). But NJ may be another disappointment, maybe Menendez dragging down some house races. F***&Ring Menendez, NJ Dems are such idiots to nominate him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:09:42 PM Nate Cohn saying Dems will win OK-5?!?!?!?!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 06, 2018, 10:09:44 PM MAX ROSE WON?! That's the upset of the night.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 10:09:48 PM Heitkamp actually outperforming Donnelly so far.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 10:09:55 PM FL 99% in, Scott up by 0.6
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: musicblind on November 06, 2018, 10:10:00 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:10:07 PM With this level of polarization, this nation is in deep sh**t.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:10:20 PM Manchin is only ahead by 2 points and is under 50% of the vote with 85% of the vote in.
You all owe me and Bagel an apology for calling us trolls for going against the MUH WV SAFE D MANCHIN BY DOUBLE DIGITS conventional wisdom. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 10:10:40 PM If it wasn't for dumbass Florida, I'd be feeling great right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 10:10:45 PM CNN projects KS3, PA6, MN3, and NY1 for Democrats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 06, 2018, 10:11:15 PM Is anyone else seeing these Nebraska numbers?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 10:11:30 PM Uh... the Democrat is currently leading by nearly 40 points with 20% in in UT-02 (not UT-04). Error?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 10:11:38 PM SERIOUS QUESTION: Anyone know how many Provisional Ballots are out in Florida?
We know the slimy weasels cheat, and the creation of a perception of Victory, allows DEM ballots to be quietly shoved into the confidential info shredder, is not uncommon, especially in Counties where PUBs control the vast majority of local GVT.... Just sayin'..... Thought we should be able to look at this more after '00, but at this point, it deserves a much deeper examination before anyone goes onto their "Jump to Conclusion Map" when it comes to final FL-SEN and FL-GOV #s. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:12:01 PM The reason why I'm so confused tonight is because, despite earlier pessimism, this /IS/ a Democrative /WAVE/ tonight! But, only in certain parts of the country.
It's a confusing night. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 06, 2018, 10:12:24 PM Max Rose wins! Big upset!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 10:12:46 PM Manchin is only ahead by 2 points and is under 50% of the vote with 85% of the vote in. You all owe me and Bagel an apology for calling us trolls for going against the MUH WV SAFE D MANCHIN BY DOUBLE DIGITS conventional wisdom. Looks as if WV03 was his worst district, if that's true some of the early networks calls could be off. Probably not, but that's your Trump effect right there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 10:12:50 PM Beto lost.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 10:13:05 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 06, 2018, 10:13:11 PM It's like a realignment election in a non-presidential year.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 10:13:13 PM With 33% in Hawley is up in MO by more than 20 points.
In GA, with 68% in, Kemp is up by 11. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wikipedia delenda est on November 06, 2018, 10:13:21 PM MSNBC calls for Cruz. NOOOOOOOO!!!! :( :( :(
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 10:13:30 PM Holy cow Luria ha a 4K lead with only votes outstanding in VA Beach and James City. SIX precincts left.
Looks like Luria and Spanberger both held on! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 10:14:06 PM MSNBC calls for Cruz. NOOOOOOOO!!!! :( :( :( Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 06, 2018, 10:14:08 PM It was called for Luria like 15 mins ago.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:14:10 PM McAdams up by 10 points - 53% reporting in UT-4!1!!1! Yeah, the early vote was amazing for Dems in UT. Should be a pickup. More sunbelt suburbs coming through. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 10:14:24 PM Holy cow Luria ha a 4K lead with only votes outstanding in VA Beach and James City. SIX precincts left. Looks like Luria and Spanberger both held on! They already called for Luria. Still waiting to call it for Spanberger, but they should soon. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:14:36 PM CNN projects KS3, PA6, MN3, and NY1 for Democrats. NY-11, my bad. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 10:14:37 PM If Sinema wins Maricopa county, does that means that she wins the state?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 10:14:38 PM MSNBC calls for Cruz. NOOOOOOOO!!!! :( :( :( Interesting, because CNN thinks he still has a chance. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:14:57 PM Meanwhile, CNN is still talking about whether Beto can make up the deficit in Texas.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 10:14:59 PM The Democrats shouldn't consider winning the House as a consolation prize: that means the GOP can't bribe their donors with another budget-busting tax cut for the remainder of Trump's term. That has to mean something, since it's literally half of his "legacy".
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Don Vito Corleone on November 06, 2018, 10:15:07 PM The NYT needle is projecting this as a D+9 wave. What the hell is going on?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 10:15:14 PM Holy cow Luria ha a 4K lead with only votes outstanding in VA Beach and James City. SIX precincts left. Looks like Luria and Spanberger both held on! They already called for Luria. Still waiting to call it for Spanberger, but they should soon. My B I'm following NYT which is calling very conservatively. They have only 8 D gains so far. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:15:19 PM Tonight basically comes down to #Polarization.
Rural Areas vs. Urban & Suburban Areas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 06, 2018, 10:15:20 PM This just might be the strangest night ever.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:15:25 PM West Virginia down to a 1.8% margin.
RETRACT THE CALL! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 06, 2018, 10:15:32 PM OK-05 may well go to Horn.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 06, 2018, 10:15:47 PM Now for 2 years, GOP will ram through any judicial nominee
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Woody on November 06, 2018, 10:16:01 PM This just might be the strangest night ever. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:16:10 PM The NYT needle is projecting this as a D+9 wave. What the hell is going on? Realignment. The Urban areas of this country with the Suburbs vs. the Rural areas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:16:11 PM Thank God. Always good to see a soulless media darling lose. Delicious twitter tears incoming. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 06, 2018, 10:16:31 PM MSNBC calls for Cruz. NOOOOOOOO!!!! :( :( :( Interesting, because CNN thinks he still has a chance. Yeah but that's probably because the people who decide these things are isolated and CNN is always more cautious with their calls. But calls are almost never wrong, even when some other networks are holding out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 10:16:57 PM The Democrats shouldn't consider winning the House as a consolation prize: that means the GOP can't bribe their donors with another budget-busting tax cut for the remainder of Trump's term. That has to mean something, since it's literally half of his "legacy". Winning the house and the majority of the governorships is a good night for Dems. FL still really hurts though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 10:16:59 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 06, 2018, 10:17:04 PM The Democrats shouldn't consider winning the House as a consolation prize: that means the GOP can't bribe their donors with another budget-busting tax cut for the remainder of Trump's term. That has to mean something, since it's literally half of his "legacy". No Obamacare repeal either and Trump will be stupid enough to campaign for it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 10:17:20 PM Van Drew is hardcore underperforming against a C-grade opponent...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:17:41 PM Spanberger and Luria WIN in VA.
Regardless of the results in the Senate and Governors races, - tonight is definitely a BLUE WAVE in the house, period. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:17:51 PM PETE SESSIONS LOSES!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 10:17:54 PM McAdams up by 10 points - 53% reporting in UT-4!1!!1! Yeah, the early vote was amazing for Dems in UT. Should be a pickup. More sunbelt suburbs coming through. Concerned about Sinema though. Dems can't afford another loss in Senate. Sinema is up in Maricopa county though and that is usually (always?) how the state is won. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 10:17:54 PM This election is so ing weird.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:17:59 PM One important point to keep in mind ---
If there were a Presidential election now, it looks to me like Dems would *probably* be winning 270+ electoral votes. So there is that. Although we need to wait and see on MI and WI. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 10:18:08 PM CNN projects KS3, PA6, MN3, and NY1 for Democrats. New York one is a pleasant surprise! Nice to see zeldin go down. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:18:14 PM PETE SESSIONS LOSES! Who called it? :O Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 06, 2018, 10:18:24 PM CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN UT-02!?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:18:30 PM Van Drew is hardcore underperforming against a C-grade opponent... Atlantic County isn't in yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 10:18:41 PM Loving TX rn
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Helsinkian on November 06, 2018, 10:18:58 PM Neo-nazi Arthur Jones getting a quarter of the votes in IL-03.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:19:17 PM Thank God. Always good to see a soulless media darling lose. Delicious twitter tears incoming. LOL?..... Soulless. You’re talking about Cruz, right? Not his opponent... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 10:19:33 PM Tonight basically comes down to #Polarization. Rural Areas vs. Urban & Suburban Areas. We’re certainly seeing some interesting things tonight, but that is way too simplified. If that were the case, Dems would be winning 70% of the vote, simple math... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:19:33 PM CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN UT-02!? That district actually has the most Dem parts of SLC, not UT-4. I'm guessing they get drowned out shortly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 10:19:37 PM Tonight looking like a draw so far? Dems maybe over performing in the house, while the GOP over performs in the senate?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:19:38 PM Nate Cohn saying Dems will win OK-5?!?!?!?! It is close. Sun belt suburbs really coming through for Dems. OC in California should be a wipeout if it follows the trend of TX. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 10:19:45 PM Other than KS-Gov and maybe FL-Sen these results aren't that surprising if you're willing to abandon your priors that populist <3 Democrats would win back rural voters.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 10:19:54 PM Axne is up by 26 points right now in IA-03.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 10:20:00 PM What's going on in SC-01.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:20:04 PM Anyone who was predicting anything less than a blue wave in the House has been humiliated, period.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 06, 2018, 10:20:14 PM The Democrats shouldn't consider winning the House as a consolation prize: that means the GOP can't bribe their donors with another budget-busting tax cut for the remainder of Trump's term. That has to mean something, since it's literally half of his "legacy". No Obamacare repeal either and Trump will be stupid enough to campaign for it. I'm glad they won't be able to ram through whatever they want, but what I'm worried about with the Senate is the Supreme Court. Even if none of the liberal judges die or have career ending health issues, with these losses it will be even harder for Dems to regain the Senate in 2020 for a possible Dem President to appoint their replacements. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:20:30 PM ()
WHAT KIND OF ELECTION IS THIS? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 10:20:31 PM RIP IndyRep :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:20:51 PM Tonight basically comes down to #Polarization. Rural Areas vs. Urban & Suburban Areas. We’re certainly seeing some interesting things tonight, but that is way too simplified. If that were the case, Dems would be winning 70% of the vote, simple math... The Suburban areas are still swing areas, make no mistake, but they're swinging Democratic 55-45 give or take. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horsemask on November 06, 2018, 10:20:53 PM Tough luck for Beto. Great race he ran.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 06, 2018, 10:21:10 PM Other than KS-Gov and maybe FL-Sen these results aren't that surprising if you're willing to abandon your priors that populist <3 Democrats would win back rural voters. Rural areas won’t even think of coming back until Republicans throw them into another recession when the rural areas still haven’t recovered from the last one... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:21:31 PM Democrats just took the lead in the national popular vote.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:21:38 PM Thank God. Always good to see a soulless media darling lose. Delicious twitter tears incoming. LOL?..... Soulless. You’re talking about Cruz, right? Not his opponent... Oh Cruz is even worse, but I love seeing the moral majority go down in flames too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sadader on November 06, 2018, 10:21:48 PM I always thought the Gubernatorial races were way more important than anything else, so meh.
Anyway, yeah, this is undoubtedly a (house) blue wave (despite overwhelming headwinds in the Senate) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 10:22:16 PM Queen Kathleen is up in MT-AL, although barely.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 06, 2018, 10:22:19 PM Rauner still leads Pritzker
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 10:22:34 PM Tonight basically comes down to #Polarization. Rural Areas vs. Urban & Suburban Areas. We’re certainly seeing some interesting things tonight, but that is way too simplified. If that were the case, Dems would be winning 70% of the vote, simple math... The Suburban areas are still swing areas, make no mistake, but they're swinging Democratic 55-45 give or take. For sure, quite troubling. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 10:23:09 PM Rauner still leads Pritzker Where are you looking? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 10:23:47 PM WV-SEN is a heartbreaker. :(
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 06, 2018, 10:24:20 PM I was looking at wrong site
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 06, 2018, 10:24:45 PM At one point this was looking like complete disaster, so I'll take the moderate House wave.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 10:25:08 PM Other than KS-Gov and maybe FL-Sen these results aren't that surprising if you're willing to abandon your priors that populist <3 Democrats would win back rural voters. Rural areas won’t even think of coming back until Republicans throw them into another recession when the rural areas still haven’t recovered from the last one... IDK man. Definitely gone as long as Trump is in office. But I really think the GOP has become too much the party of Trump in the same way the Democrats became the party of Obama, they just have a better geographic spread than Democrats do. So I think once Trump is out of office some of those areas will be more competitive (although tonight makes me less certain that he'll be out of office in 2020). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 06, 2018, 10:25:28 PM Heitkamp, noooooo :'(
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:25:28 PM WV-SEN is a heartbreaker. :( The margin keeps falling. They need to retract the call. Remember when I was a troll for predicting a Morrisey upset? LOL Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Umengus on November 06, 2018, 10:25:50 PM mccaskill at 36 % so far (41 % in)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Green Line on November 06, 2018, 10:26:55 PM Dems picking up 30-35 seats is not a ~blue wave~, sorry. Republicans are way over extended in the house right now. This election is just bringing us back to a more evenly divided Congress. A blue wave would be pushing the GOP under 200 seats.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 06, 2018, 10:27:16 PM Early numbers in the Minnesota house seats don't seem too great for Democrats.
Menendez seems to have dragged down D House challengers in NJ. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 10:27:35 PM WV-SEN is a heartbreaker. :( It's pretty apparent that Jenkins could've stomped Manchin. Sucks for the WVGOP. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 10:27:51 PM MO-5 and MN-1 might flip to R.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 10:28:22 PM Heitkamp, noooooo :'( She was the one Dem incumbent that I never at any point expected to win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 10:28:25 PM Dems picking up 30-35 seats is not a ~blue wave~, sorry. Republicans are way over extended in the house right now. This election is just bringing us back to a more evenly divided Congress. A blue wave would be pushing the GOP under 200 seats. Moving the goalpost I see. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:28:37 PM If Jenny Wilson wins 40+ of the UT Sen. vote she should consider it a victory.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:28:39 PM Dems picking up 30-35 seats is not a ~blue wave~, sorry. Republicans are way over extended in the house right now. This election is just bringing us back to a more evenly divided Congress. A blue wave would be pushing the GOP under 200 seats. The GOP is over extended with a majority of 23? Whatever you're smoking, stop. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:28:47 PM CNN calls it for Cruz and the senate for the Republicans
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 10:29:04 PM If Jenny Wilson wins 40+ of the UT Sen. vote she should consider it a victory. The vote is almost all SLC so far. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 10:29:26 PM MO-5 and MN-1 might flip to R. Uh... based on what? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 10:29:33 PM Wassup with Lee Zeldin losing? He's WINNING.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 10:30:04 PM Scholten up in IA-4 early vote :P
MO-5 and MN-1 might flip to R. What Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 10:30:10 PM Manchin and Doug Jones are going to literally be the only moderate senate dems left...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on November 06, 2018, 10:30:19 PM I know I should be excited about the House, but Florida and Indiana really have me blown.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 10:30:25 PM MO-5 and MN-1 might flip to R. Uh... based on what? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:30:26 PM Dems picking up 30-35 seats is not a ~blue wave~, sorry. Republicans are way over extended in the house right now. This election is just bringing us back to a more evenly divided Congress. A blue wave would be pushing the GOP under 200 seats. I still believe Democrats pick up 40+ seats, and running better than even 2006 is definitely a ~blue wave~. Ridiculous. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 10:30:33 PM Wassup with Lee Zeldin losing? He's WINNING. It was a typo. New York 11 flipped, not New York 1. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 10:30:43 PM CNN projects Actual Alien Jellyfish Ted Cruz as the winner
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:30:52 PM MO-5 and MN-1 might flip to R. Uh... based on what? Cleaver's leading by only 50,000 votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:31:21 PM Democrats flipping the House is the key. Taking the Senate would have been fantastic but was always a very unlikely shot. Now we'll finally get to see some real oversight of the Trump administration. Say hello to Intel Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, for one.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 10:32:04 PM My guess is Manchin switches, especially if R's win either or both AZ and NV.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:32:15 PM Democrats flipping the House is the key. Taking the Senate would have been fantastic but was always a very unlikely shot. Now we'll finally get to see some real oversight of the Trump administration. Say hello to Intel Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, for one. It's good, but even if Dems couldn't flip the Senate, we're going to be in a deeper hole for 2020. Not great. But may have been unavoidable given the Senate's bias to rural states and could have been even worse. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 10:32:27 PM 35% in, McMurray leading Chris Collins 50-48.
34% in, Delgado leading Faso 51-46. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:33:18 PM The NYT needle is projecting this as a D+9 wave. What the hell is going on? The systematic bias and rigged nature of the US electoral system is what is going on. The Senate is a fundamentally undemocratic system and must be fundamentally reformed, and/or new states added, etc. This was clear to me before, hopefully it will now also be clear to other Dems as well. Plus in the House, gerrymandering and such. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:33:24 PM CNN projects PA7, TX32(!!), and VA2 for Democrats. PA14 for Republicans.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:33:33 PM My guess is Manchin switches, especially if R's win either or both AZ and NV. Why wouldn’t he have jus ran as an R? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shadows on November 06, 2018, 10:33:41 PM Yea Dems have flopped even if they take the house. Forget Blue Wave, Dems never expected to lose FL, or lose IN, ND or MO by 10-15%. All these were supposed to be single digit losses at worse & perhaps a win or 2.
Florida is deeply disappointing. FL will now have a GOP Racist Extremist Gov. with 2 GOP Senators. Dems will be losing atleast 30-40 seats with a margin of 5-7% & under & they could have won most of these seats under the right conditions. This is not a wave. Despite freakin' Trump, Dems will narrow sneak a House Victory while losing key Senate seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on November 06, 2018, 10:33:43 PM Manchin's margin just grew to 4 points
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:33:50 PM Tonight basically comes down to #Polarization. Rural Areas vs. Urban & Suburban Areas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 10:34:12 PM Democrats flipping the House is the key. Taking the Senate would have been fantastic but was always a very unlikely shot. Now we'll finally get to see some real oversight of the Trump administration. Say hello to Intel Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, for one. It's good, but even if Dems couldn't flip the Senate, we're going to be in a deeper hole for 2020. Not great. But may have been unavoidable given the Senate's bias to rural states and could have been even worse. Meh, they purged the moderates from the Senate. Time to move on from them Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:34:19 PM Could Democrats win 45-50+ seats, while losing the Senate by 2-3 Seats?
What the hell... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 10:34:20 PM Sessions loses in Texas. Dems didn't even field a guy in 2016.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 10:34:31 PM I wish I had all these random names memorized. :P Been refreshing this thread on my phone, but I don’t know where some of these races are, LOL.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:34:36 PM Democrats aren't getting anything meaningful done anytime soon until a crash happens.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 10:34:38 PM CASTEN DEFEATS ROSKAM WOW. I didn't think it would happen, and I still think its early. But WOW. He has fallen from grace so fast. Bet he didn't see it coming. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: I Will Not Be Wrong on November 06, 2018, 10:34:40 PM I will feel a lot better if MT, AZ, and NV senate races all go Dem.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 10:34:45 PM Unfortunately it doesn't look great for Slotkin at this point, despite her strong second NYT poll.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 10:34:48 PM Stefanik's race is surprisingly close.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 10:34:48 PM Pete Sessions DOWN!!!
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 10:35:07 PM How come nobody is talking about the Arizona?
Do people here know that there's actually a senate race there? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 10:35:09 PM It's been called for Cramer. Republicans hold the Senate.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 10:35:27 PM Scott is now up 1.8 in FL. DeSantis up by 1.
There might not even be a recount. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:35:27 PM Democrats aren't getting anything meaningful done anytime soon until a crash happens. Neither are Republicans. Welcome to America. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:35:30 PM The NYT House map of Iowa is the exact inverse of the incumbents' parties.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:35:32 PM Kevin Stitt wins by double digits. Told ya so, Okies will never vote for ANY Demoncrat.
RIP Politician Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:35:35 PM Checked in on Bill Mitchell's feed and he's whining about Fox calling the House so early. BTW, this is his pinned tweet:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:35:37 PM CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN UT-02!? Salt Lake City. R gerrymander splits it into multiple districts. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 06, 2018, 10:35:54 PM COLIN ALLRED!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 10:35:57 PM Tonight basically comes down to #Polarization. Rural Areas vs. Urban & Suburban Areas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:36:11 PM I will feel a lot better if MT, AZ, and NV senate races all go Dem. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 06, 2018, 10:36:13 PM How come nobody is talking about the Arizona? Do people here know that there's actually a senate race there? Too scared to think a win there yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 10:36:17 PM My guess is Manchin switches, especially if R's win either or both AZ and NV. Based on what? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 10:36:18 PM MO-5 and MN-1 might flip to R. Uh... based on what? CNN map. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:36:46 PM () WHAT KIND OF ELECTION IS THIS? A Dem wave in which the rigged/undemocratic nature of the Senate is apparent. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fluffypanther19 on November 06, 2018, 10:36:54 PM Checked in on Bill Mitchell's feed and he's whining about Fox calling the House so early. BTW, this is his pinned tweet: Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 10:36:59 PM Wow.
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 10:37:06 PM McSally (R) now leading in AZ.
Small lead but still. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 06, 2018, 10:37:06 PM Democrats aren't getting anything meaningful done anytime soon until a crash happens. Do you mean electorally or legislatively? Because legislatively that was a given. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:37:08 PM McSally up small with 55% in, Maricopa a tossup.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 10:37:20 PM The Dem is leading in GA-7 by 6 points (43% reporting) and only trailing by 3 in GA-6 (very little in there so far).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 06, 2018, 10:37:36 PM The suburban whiplash is real.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:37:48 PM Democrats aren't getting anything meaningful done anytime soon until a crash happens. Do you mean electorally or legislatively? Because legislatively that was a given. Both since one is dependent on another. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 10:37:50 PM This election is so stinkin' weird.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:37:53 PM It begins:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 10:38:07 PM Unfortunately it doesn't look great for Slotkin at this point, despite her strong second NYT poll. If you look at the Senate/Governor results, you'll see Ingham County is mostly still out but Livingston County is basically done. So Slotkin still has room to recover. Longjohn is beating Upton right now, though, by around 4 points with 49% reporting, and Stevens looks like a relatively safe bet to win over Epstein (up by 8 points with 50% in). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:38:20 PM CNN projects Republicans will be under 200.
Big! This is definitely a blue wave in the House, a Tossup in the Senate and a Blue trickle in the Governors races. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:38:22 PM Checked in on Bill Mitchell's feed and he's whining about Fox calling the House so early. BTW, this is his pinned tweet: Oh, I know, that's why I wanted to see what his reaction was. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 10:38:28 PM Who the hell is this Horn dude and why is he, a Democrat, winning in Oklahoma?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 10:38:31 PM The NYT House map of Iowa is the exact inverse of the incumbents' parties. Hardly anything out of IA-2 yet. This is actually a good start for the state overall. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:38:43 PM Who the hell is this Horn dude and why is he, a Democrat, winning in Oklahoma? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on November 06, 2018, 10:39:02 PM Kind of an embarrassing way to win the night. There are my two cents.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 06, 2018, 10:39:44 PM Unbelievably, Kendra Horn looks poised to win Whas this on any radar? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shadows on November 06, 2018, 10:39:46 PM Anyone talking about the Sun Belt being a viable strategy is delusional. Dems lost TX, FL & will likely lose AZ as well & the Georgia Gov. race. The Sun Belt will be in play only in 2028 (where maybe Dems can win all of the key states).
Tom Wolf & Casey crushed GOP by 15-20% points. Dems swept PA & won huge gains in the House (Even with re-redistricting, they won a huge share of the votes), Brown won, Stabenow will in double digits, MI Gov. race will go Blue, Baldwin win near to double digits. The WI Gov. race is close. Trump can easily lose 2020 if Dems find a competent candidate who can lock up WI, MI & PA. Not to mention, Trump or the GOP has little chance to pick CO or NH in 2020. And NV looks hard as well ! The Mid-west swung away from Trump & Obama-Trump districts went Blue in 2018. Also, MN was a Blowout- 30-40% points victories in Senate & Gov. races ( A state Trump won by 2 % !!!!!) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 06, 2018, 10:39:49 PM Horn lives in a suburban district in oklahoma that swung to Hillary. Its a redder version of Il 14th is the best I could describe.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:39:55 PM Who the hell is this Horn dude and why is he, a Democrat, winning in Oklahoma? Well, to start with he's a she. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: tjstarling on November 06, 2018, 10:39:56 PM CNN has Nelson and Scott basically tied in Palm Beach. That can't be right.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 10:40:10 PM CNN projects Democrats will be under 200. Did you mean Republicans? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:40:11 PM It hasnt been talked about at all, but not looking great for Claire right now.
Down big with 60% in and all of KC in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 10:40:17 PM CNN projects Democrats will be under 200. Big! This is definitely a blue wave in the House, a Tossup in the Senate and a Blue trickle in the Governors races. Isn't that a massive R wave? Or a typo? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Orser67 on November 06, 2018, 10:40:19 PM If Dems don't sweep MT, AZ, and NV, I'm not sure that they'll ever win back the Senate.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 06, 2018, 10:40:37 PM Kendra Horn omg how?!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:41:21 PM It hasnt been talked about at all, but not looking great for Claire right now. Down big with 60% in and all of KC in. Most of the vote is still out in STL though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:41:31 PM Anyone talking about the Sun Belt being a viable strategy is delusional. Dems lost TX, FL & will likely lose AZ as well & the Georgia Gov. race. The Sun Belt will be in play only in 2028 (where maybe Dems can win all of the key states). Tom Wolf & Casey crushed GOP by 15-20% points. Dems swept PA & won huge gains in the House (Even with re-redistricting, they won a huge share of the votes), Brown won, Stabenow will in double digits, MI Gov. race will go Blue, Baldwin win near to double digits. The WI Gov. race is close. Trump can easily lose 2020 if Dems find a competent candidate who can lock up WI, MI & PA. Not to mention, Trump or the GOP has little chance to pick CO or NH in 2020. And NV looks hard as well ! The Mid-west swung away from Trump & Obama-Trump districts went Blue in 2018. Also, MN was a Blowout- 30-40% points victories in Senate & Gov. races ( A state Trump won by 2 % !!!!!) Cool so everything can get blocked in the Senate with a GOP senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:41:33 PM Kind of an embarrassing way to win the night. There are my two cents. HOW. Democrats are winning in KS and OK! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 10:41:37 PM Unbelievably, Kendra Horn looks poised to win Whas this on any radar? Yes, it was rated as Likely R by some. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 10:41:50 PM I haven't seen any formal call, but I think it's safe to say that we have an Espy vs. Hyde-Smith runoff.
Likely R and closer to Safe than Lean. Even if half of McDaniel voters flip to Espy (which is beyond unrealistic), she would still probably win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 06, 2018, 10:41:54 PM Tester up by 17 (!) right now. #CandidateQualityMatters
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 10:42:11 PM Anyone talking about the Sun Belt being a viable strategy is delusional. Dems lost TX, FL & will likely lose AZ as well & the Georgia Gov. race. The Sun Belt will be in play only in 2028 (where maybe Dems can win all of the key states). Tom Wolf & Casey crushed GOP by 15-20% points. Dems swept PA & won huge gains in the House (Even with re-redistricting, they won a huge share of the votes), Brown won, Stabenow will in double digits, MI Gov. race will go Blue, Baldwin win near to double digits. The WI Gov. race is close. Trump can easily lose 2020 if Dems find a competent candidate who can lock up WI, MI & PA. Not to mention, Trump or the GOP has little chance to pick CO or NH in 2020. And NV looks hard as well ! The Mid-west swung away from Trump & Obama-Trump districts went Blue in 2018. Also, MN was a Blowout- 30-40% points victories in Senate & Gov. races ( A state Trump won by 2 % !!!!!) Cool so everything can get blocked in the Senate with a GOP senate. And Thomas can decide if he wants to retire next year. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 10:42:27 PM It hasnt been talked about at all, but not looking great for Claire right now. Down big with 60% in and all of KC in. Yeah, this one needs to be called as well. Put her out to pasture. RIP Claire, I'll always look fondly on your 2012 race Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shadows on November 06, 2018, 10:43:01 PM If Dems don't sweep MT, AZ, and NV, I'm not sure that they'll ever win back the Senate. This. CO looks like the only pick-up. Maybe NC even Trump loses by 5-6% in 2020. Maybe ME in a Dem Wave year. It is likely that 2020 under a Dem President will have a GOP President & McConnell as Majority Leader obstructing anything & everything ! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:43:22 PM CNN projects Democrats will be under 200. Big! This is definitely a blue wave in the House, a Tossup in the Senate and a Blue trickle in the Governors races. Isn't that a massive R wave? Or a typo? Embarrassing. Lol. Well, either way. I'm happy with tonight. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:43:36 PM It hasnt been talked about at all, but not looking great for Claire right now. Down big with 60% in and all of KC in. Yeah, this one needs to be called as well. Put her out to pasture. RIP Claire, I'll always look fondly on your 2012 race KC may be in, but Saint Louis isn't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 10:43:36 PM I guess Trump will feel free to finally fire Jeff Sessions and the others that annoy him now that he has a compliant senate to vote for any replacement.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 10:43:54 PM It hasnt been talked about at all, but not looking great for Claire right now. Down big with 60% in and all of KC in. Yeah, this one needs to be called as well. Put her out to pasture. RIP Claire, I'll always look fondly on your 2012 race We still have to see if she gets Claired out of office. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shadows on November 06, 2018, 10:44:59 PM Anyone talking about the Sun Belt being a viable strategy is delusional. Dems lost TX, FL & will likely lose AZ as well & the Georgia Gov. race. The Sun Belt will be in play only in 2028 (where maybe Dems can win all of the key states). Tom Wolf & Casey crushed GOP by 15-20% points. Dems swept PA & won huge gains in the House (Even with re-redistricting, they won a huge share of the votes), Brown won, Stabenow will in double digits, MI Gov. race will go Blue, Baldwin win near to double digits. The WI Gov. race is close. Trump can easily lose 2020 if Dems find a competent candidate who can lock up WI, MI & PA. Not to mention, Trump or the GOP has little chance to pick CO or NH in 2020. And NV looks hard as well ! The Mid-west swung away from Trump & Obama-Trump districts went Blue in 2018. Also, MN was a Blowout- 30-40% points victories in Senate & Gov. races ( A state Trump won by 2 % !!!!!) Cool so everything can get blocked in the Senate with a GOP senate. And Thomas can decide if he wants to retire next year. The Senate looks terrible. Dems have literally no chance to win the Senate in 2020. 2022 with a Dem President & Dems winning 3-4 Senate seats look very hard. The Senate may have been lost for a long time. Probably, Divided House for the foreseeable future. Nothing gets done ! McConnell as Majority Leader obstructing everything. Only way you can get anything passed if you cut SS & Medicare ! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 06, 2018, 10:45:09 PM Doug jones is now Safe R in 2020 barring Moore again.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:45:41 PM Doug jones is now Safe R in 2020 barring Moore again. Yep. He should just retire. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 10:45:59 PM Illinois has been bloody for the GOP. Looks like 3 House pickups there plus Rauner going down in flames.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:46:12 PM CNN projects IL6 (ROSKAM DOWN!) and AZ2 for Democrats.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 06, 2018, 10:46:18 PM MO-2 needs to count faster.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 10:46:51 PM I mean I know it splits SLC, BUT HOW IS THIS HAPPENING IN UT-2
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 10:47:05 PM This feels alarmingly like 2010. Trump could get a 2nd term.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 10:47:37 PM What areas have we got outstanding in AZ? If what we have today is mostly early vote, which party should the election day vote favour?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:47:37 PM Tester up by 17 (!) right now. #CandidateQualityMatters Nah, Stitt won and Shalala won. :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 10:47:53 PM This feels alarmingly like 2010. Trump could get a 2nd term. Trump was always going to get reelected, lets be honest with ourselves. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:47:58 PM This feels alarmingly like 2010. Trump could get a 2nd term. Democrats 40+ feels like 2010? What? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 06, 2018, 10:48:07 PM The Senate looks terrible. Dems have literally no chance to win the Senate in 2020. 2022 with a Dem President & Dems winning 3-4 Senate seats look very hard. All they'd have to do is win most of the ones they lost in 2014. It's not as dire as you're suggesting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 10:48:08 PM What areas have we got outstanding in AZ? If what we have today is mostly early vote, which party should the election day vote favour? NYT gives Simena a 60% chance as of now. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 06, 2018, 10:48:26 PM Kind of an embarrassing way to win the night. There are my two cents. HOW. Democrats are winning in KS and OK! It's almost like you have no conception of the local politics as either. Following the tenure of Mary Fallin, I'm stunned the Oklahoma Governor's race wasn't closer. I had expected both Kansas and Oklahoma to be the two closest races - now neither is close yet in opposite directions. My final "prediction" on this site has these as two of five gubernatorial toss-ups (with South Dakota, Ohio, and Iowa). Winning a single house district is just about the least special thing in the world. It's like a Republican shouting, "we're winning in New York" - except they have better reason to shout that about their own governorships in New Hampshire and Massachusetts and Maryland and maybe even Connecticut. I literally cannot believe you are more than an overeager high schooler with how much you are moving the measuring stick just to remain excited about unequivocally negative result. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 10:48:36 PM Can MO-02 and SC-01 please count they scaring people.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 06, 2018, 10:48:38 PM Illinois has been bloody for the GOP. Looks like 3 House pickups there plus Rauner going down in flames. Anyway Its interesting how the 12th was seen as the most likely of the four to flip in 2017 and 2018 because muh Obama Trump voters yet now the Romney Clinton + Romney trumps one of which swung republican by a small amount and the other swung democrat all flip. Quite interesting. I think Illinois dems would be smart to gerrymander the democrat parts of the 12th into the 13th in 2020 and split up Chicago land into the 6th and 14th. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 10:48:40 PM Illinois has been bloody for the GOP. Looks like 3 House pickups there plus Rauner going down in flames. Davis will make it up I think Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:48:41 PM Somebody needs to slap UT-2. It's clearly tripping major ballsack.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Dowager Mod on November 06, 2018, 10:48:43 PM Looks like my guurrll Mikie Sherrill is going to win in NJ. <3
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 10:48:56 PM REEEEEEEEEEEEE CORDRAY LOST
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:49:04 PM Senate is gone until 2024.
Wow. Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 10:49:24 PM #BernieUnder70
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:49:27 PM Intriguingly, CNN has Fletcher over Culberson 52.2-47.8 with 77% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 10:49:33 PM This feels alarmingly like 2010. Trump could get a 2nd term. No doubt this is a disappointing night in some respects, but Dem totals in WI, MI, PA etc is promising. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:49:33 PM This feels alarmingly like 2010. Trump could get a 2nd term. Tonight makes me confident in 2024 but not 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 10:49:37 PM I mean I know it splits SLC, BUT HOW IS THIS HAPPENING IN UT-2 UT-03 is surprisingly close as well. I guess Mormons went relatively D in House races. Not enough for more than maybe one D gain but still an impressive result. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 06, 2018, 10:49:43 PM Senate is gone until 2024. Wow. Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:49:53 PM Senate is gone until 2024. Wow. Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R? Lol... Heller isn't going to win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:50:32 PM Senate is gone until 2024. Wow. Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R? Dems are doing well enough in urban areas tonight for me to be confident in NV. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:51:27 PM Kind of an embarrassing way to win the night. There are my two cents. HOW. Democrats are winning in KS and OK! It's almost like you have no conception of the local politics as either. Following the tenure of Mary Fallin, I'm stunned the Oklahoma Governor's race wasn't closer. I had expected both Kansas and Oklahoma to be the two closest races - now neither is close yet in opposite directions. My final "prediction" on this site has these as two of five gubernatorial toss-ups (with South Dakota, Ohio, and Iowa). Winning a single house district is just about the least special thing in the world. It's like a Republican shouting, "we're winning in New York" - except they have better reason to shout that about their own governorships in New Hampshire and Massachusetts and Maryland and maybe even Connecticut. I literally cannot believe you are more than an overeager high schooler with how much you are moving the measuring stick just to remain excited about unequivocally negative result. Not at all, my overexcitement as a Democrat has been extremely tempered tonight. I simply see a clear realignment in the age of Trump, - and I think it favors Democrats. Narrowly, but enough to be solid. And in the age of polarization that's all that matters. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 10:52:17 PM CNN is predicting a 35-45 seat D gain in the House.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: AndyHogan14 on November 06, 2018, 10:52:31 PM Western U.S. and Great Plains > Eastern U.S. Well, that's been the case since, well, forever. As the wise Bill Walton once said: "if the Pilgrims had landed in California, the east coast would still be wilderness." Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:52:39 PM Wait wait wait. Sinema is winning Maricopa but losing statewide right now?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 10:53:29 PM CNN calls it for Katko
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 10:53:35 PM Did only 600K really vote in Maricopa?!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 10:53:42 PM Red D's on here are the worst. We might win 35-45 seats and some of you are still upset?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jersey Jimmy on November 06, 2018, 10:53:42 PM I live in SC-01, for the record
why won't you dicks count faster Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:53:46 PM Weirdly enough Tester is doing fine right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:53:54 PM CNN calls IL-13 for Londrigan (D).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 10:53:56 PM Tester is winning Lake (the "bellwether county") by 1, FWIW. This will obviously tighten, but it’s really not looking good for Rosendale.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 06, 2018, 10:54:06 PM Great news in House. But, OH gov and Senate was disappointing
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: tjstarling on November 06, 2018, 10:54:09 PM Glad he won, but Brown is lucky he didn't get a better challenger in OH.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 10:54:37 PM Tragically, Harris is gonna scrape by in NC-09. Truly one of the worst GOP candidates this cycle, and that's saying a lot.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:54:40 PM Tester is winning Lake (the "bellwether county") by 1, FWIW. This will obviously tighten, but it’s really not looking good for Rosendale. Yeah, Tester looks to be hitting his marks. It will obviously be close, but this is not what a Republican win in Montana looks like so far. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:55:16 PM CNN has IL13 for Londrigan.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:56:06 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 10:56:10 PM Tragically, Harris is gonna scrape by in NC-09. Truly one of the worst GOP candidates this cycle, and that's saying a lot. Really? Isn't the outstanding area the Charlotte suburbs? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:56:24 PM Red D's on here are the worst. We might win 35-45 seats and some of you are still upset? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 06, 2018, 10:56:28 PM What a bizarre night and it's not even close to being over!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 10:56:32 PM Weirdly enough Tester is doing fine right now. -Popular incumbent -Montana Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:56:33 PM ABC and CNN called NY-22 for Brinidisi (D).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 10:56:42 PM FASO IS OUT!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:56:46 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fargobison on November 06, 2018, 10:56:51 PM Did only 600K really vote in Maricopa?! Election day votes still need to be counted. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 10:56:52 PM Time to kick Ohio and Florida out lol
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 10:56:55 PM At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:57:00 PM CNN: Delgado wins NY-19.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:57:28 PM Unbelievably, Kendra Horn looks poised to win Whas this on any radar? Yes, it was definitely on the radar. There was also late outside spending there, particularly from Bloomberg iirc. Bloomberg threw down a lot there at the end. So he deserves some thanks there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:57:52 PM NYT has Kim barley ahead of MacArthur with 99% reporting in NJ-03.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:58:08 PM Anybody else watching TX-10?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: here2view on November 06, 2018, 10:58:16 PM Time to kick Ohio and Florida out lol Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 06, 2018, 10:58:25 PM Keep in mind that Montana does have a strong Democratic bias when counting votes at first.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Galaxie on November 06, 2018, 10:58:33 PM At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY. Yeah, Senate is looking to be a lost cause for Dems as we move to be the urban-suburban party Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 10:58:40 PM If Dems don't sweep MT, AZ, and NV, I'm not sure that they'll ever win back the Senate. They will eventually, and the first thing they need to do is admit new temporary rotten borough states in order to amend the constitution in order to fix the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 10:58:43 PM CNN CALLS DELGADO AND BRINDISI!!!!!!!!1!1!!1! I love NY! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 10:59:05 PM Iron Deadbeat Jailbird got crushed by double digits. Who could've predicted that? WHO?!
RIP Politician again Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:59:06 PM Poliquin up by 12 votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 10:59:44 PM Gillum is conceding.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 10:59:48 PM FL confirmed HP state. SMH.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:59:57 PM CNN officially calls the House for Democrats. W000000000000000000000T.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 11:00:02 PM Poliquin up by 12 votes. But what about the 2nd place votes? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:00:06 PM Dems take control according to CNN (only about 1 hour late).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 06, 2018, 11:00:09 PM CNN finally predicts Dems will win the House.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 11:00:14 PM Both NYT and 538 still have Nelson having a decent shot, though less than 50-50.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Atlas Force on November 06, 2018, 11:00:15 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mzal98 on November 06, 2018, 11:00:42 PM CNN projects Dems win House and DeSantis win
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 11:00:43 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Helsinkian on November 06, 2018, 11:00:48 PM CNN: DeSantis wins.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cashew on November 06, 2018, 11:01:10 PM Senate is gone until 2024. Wow. Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R? Wow? The only people surprised by the senate results are polarization deniers. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:01:34 PM Senate is gone until 2024. Wow. Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R? Yeah, I will still laugh at it. NV is very different from Indiana/Missouri etc. Totally different dynamic there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:01:36 PM Screw Florida, the House matters more.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 06, 2018, 11:01:37 PM According to CNN, Jeff Van Drew is losing to an open Nazi.
I don't know whether to be shocked or sad. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 11:01:44 PM FL is becoming a lean R state.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 06, 2018, 11:02:01 PM People say candidate quality doesn't matter but if so why did Tenny lose and Katko win?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 11:02:19 PM The last thing I want to dump in this thread are the margins for each county, ranked here from most R to most D. This may be useful if you want to follow another statewide or Senate race in the state in 2018 or 2020 on election night. Garfield: R+84.81 Carter: R+73.04 Fallon: R+65.51 Petroleum: R+64.71 Powder River: R+61.34 Wibaux: R+60.8 Phillips: R+58.95 McCone: R+57.89 Musselshell: R+55.45 Prairie: R+55.13 Richland: R+51.09 Daniels: R+50.58 Golden Valley: R+48.86 Sweet Grass: R+43.34 Stillwater: R+42.06 Meagher: R+41.29 Treasure: R+40.36 Fergus: R+39.71 Dawson: R+39.4 Judith Basin: R+39.2 Broadwater: R+37.19 Wheatland: R+36.02 Lincoln: R+34.63 Valley: R+34.45 Toole: R+34.17 Sanders: R+34.06 Powell: R+33.85 Liberty: R+33.61 Beaverhead: R+30.46 Custer: R+28.5 Madison: R+27.26 Granite: R+26.38 Teton: R+24.63 Pondera: R+24.48 Ravalli: R+24.27 Chouteau: R+24.15 Mineral: R+24.1 Rosebud: R+21.08 Jefferson: R+18.94 Flathead: R+18.86 Yellowstone: R+18.35 Sheridan: R+16.37 Carbon: R+12.33 Lake: R+7.16 Cascade: R+6.97 ------------------------------------------------------- Hill: D+0.64 Park: D+4.73 Roosevelt: D+5.48 Big Horn: D+7.36 Blaine: D+7.8 Lewis and Clark: D+9.34 Gallatin: D+13.96 Missoula: D+31.63 Deer Lodge: D+33.64 Glacier: D+33.91 Silver Bow: D+34.19 The county which voted closest to the statewide result (R+5.59) was Cascade and not Lake. Interestingly enough (though not that surprising), every county won by Gianforte was more Republican than the state as a whole. So yeah, I guess the Titanium Tester meme was real, after all. :P Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 11:02:27 PM Future President Cordray loses.
RIP The_Doctor Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:02:52 PM People say candidate quality doesn't matter but if so why did Tenny lose and Katko win? Tenney was too far right for a central NY seat? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 11:02:52 PM Tragically, Harris is gonna scrape by in NC-09. Truly one of the worst GOP candidates this cycle, and that's saying a lot. It looks like the gerrymander held in Ohio and may hold in NC. Maps with changes in VA and PA saw a large number of seats turn over. Depressing news given that gerrymandering will continue to be ignored by SCOTUS. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 11:02:59 PM According to CNN, Jeff Van Drew is losing to an open Nazi. I don't know whether to be shocked or sad. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 06, 2018, 11:03:06 PM According to CNN, Jeff Van Drew is losing to an open Nazi. I don't know whether to be shocked or sad. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:03:13 PM Both the FOX and CNN exit polls have Rosen up narrowly in NV FWIW
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 06, 2018, 11:03:15 PM According to CNN, Jeff Van Drew is losing to an open Nazi. I don't know whether to be shocked or sad. I see Van Drew up 3% with 70% reporting. Still much closer than it should be. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 11:03:24 PM I liked Levine in the primary, but watching Gillum's concession speech makes me realize how charismatic he is. It really is terrible that DeSantis won.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 11:03:41 PM California re-elects fan of the confederate flag.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 06, 2018, 11:03:48 PM Very happy to see Antonio Delgado win in NY-19, I think we'll see big things from him.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 11:03:50 PM 538 says 100% of a Democratic House win. Beautiful.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:03:56 PM There is only one election that matters. The Chairmanship of the House Ways and Means Committee. That just went to the Democrats. :)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 11:03:59 PM NYT still has Davis up with 79 in, whats up with that?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 11:04:32 PM Tragically, Harris is gonna scrape by in NC-09. Truly one of the worst GOP candidates this cycle, and that's saying a lot. It looks like the gerrymander held in Ohio and may hold in NC. Maps with changes in VA and PA saw a large number of seats turn over. Depressing news given that gerrymandering will continue to be ignored by SCOTUS. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 06, 2018, 11:04:34 PM People say candidate quality doesn't matter but if so why did Tenny lose and Katko win? Tenney was too far right for a central NY seat? Trump won it by 16 points. This does show that candidate quality does matter although it can be overrated. But if tester actually wins this while Air Claire and Donnely get rekt this forum is gonna meme. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:04:55 PM Still doesnt look great for Dems in Missouri.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 11:05:01 PM RIP BUEHLER
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 11:05:07 PM California re-elects fan of the confederate flag. Who? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 11:05:20 PM NJ is now 11-1 on NYT site, but NJ-3 and NJ-7 are extremely close.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 11:05:40 PM Is it too early to say I told you so re: Gillum? Yes. Very much so, thank you. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 06, 2018, 11:06:05 PM Trump's tax returns are getting subpoenaed.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 11:06:13 PM John Culberson falls.
RIP RINO Tom and BRTD. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:06:33 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. Yeah this result is not really bad/unexpected unless you had unrealistic expectations. Sure, it could have been a bit better (mainly if Ds did 1% better in Florida), but other than that it is not really so crazy or bad at all for Dems. And there is quite a lot of good. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 11:07:06 PM Fox: Hawley takes MO.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 11:07:09 PM Damn it Ohio. Shouldn't be surprised you'd screw this up.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 06, 2018, 11:07:29 PM Bye bye Claire!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 11:07:41 PM Fox News called Hawley.
GOP dominating the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 11:07:41 PM NJ is now 11-1 on NYT site, but NJ-3 and NJ-7 are extremely close. Going to be infuriating if the criminal costs us a few heartbreakers. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 11:07:56 PM Finally McCaskill falls.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:07:58 PM What? Kurt Schrader isn't going down by 20 points? :P
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:08:08 PM At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY. Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes... Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin... The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 11:08:32 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:08:39 PM Based on how Indiana turned out, MO makes a ton of sense.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 06, 2018, 11:08:58 PM Fox News called Hawley. GOP dominating the Senate. All three of the Midwestern Tossup Trifecta (IN/ND/MO) have fallen. I was optimistic, but I thought Braun would fall short. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 11:09:14 PM At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY. Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes... Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin... The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Atlas Force on November 06, 2018, 11:09:26 PM At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY. Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes... Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin... The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 06, 2018, 11:09:36 PM Carolyn Bourdeaux is still leading in GA-07 with 84% in-this is looking like a flip folks.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:09:39 PM Democrats currently leading in ALL Iowa districts.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:09:41 PM Anybody else watching TX-10? It is probably just that more of the vote has reported from Austin and Houston than the rural areas. But... The really good thing about the TX-SEN outcome is it means Republicans are going to have to be very careful in gerrymandering the big TX metros in 2020, and are going to have to concede more Dem seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BundouYMB on November 06, 2018, 11:10:05 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 😥 on November 06, 2018, 11:10:15 PM Don't very good night for Dems
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BundouYMB on November 06, 2018, 11:10:39 PM Can I get Horfoid's take on Democrats currently leading in all 4 Iowa seats?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 11:10:41 PM At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY. Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes... Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin... The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate. And that is a massive problem. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 11:10:43 PM Carolyn Bourdeaux is still leading in GA-07 with 84% in-this is looking like a flip folks. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 11:10:47 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 06, 2018, 11:11:25 PM Can I get Horfoid's take on Democrats currently leading in all 4 Iowa seats? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 11:11:41 PM Arizona and Nevada are absolute musts.
The Senate is gone until 2024... it’s even worse if they lose that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:11:51 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night. She would have done about as good as Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill and Phil Bredesen. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:11:51 PM I don't think this is up anywhere yet, but Rossi is going DOWN. He's currently trailing by 15 (!) points. Early returns in WA tends to skew conservative/incumbent.
http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/CongressionalDistrict8.html Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BundouYMB on November 06, 2018, 11:12:07 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill! Clarence Thomas is only 70. It would be very strange for him to retire. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 11:12:16 PM Can King actually lose?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 11:12:47 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night. Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 06, 2018, 11:12:55 PM how is az looking?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:13:24 PM At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY. Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes... Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin... The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate. And that is a massive problem. But it didnt use to be when Dems had 2 senators from ND, a senate leader from SD and could win in races basically everywhere. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:13:26 PM According to CNN, Jeff Van Drew is losing to an open Nazi. I don't know whether to be shocked or sad. I think that is because Atlantic City has not reported. It is 0% reporting on NYT in the Senate race at least, so I assume it hasn't reported in the House. But all the vote counts are different, so hard to tell. But in general the votes out are not representative in most races. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 11:13:42 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night. She would have done about as good as Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill and Phil Bredesen. No, Florida is not a Trump +20 state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 11:13:51 PM Blum is DONE according to CNN's map online.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 11:13:53 PM McCaskill is gone, thank goodness!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 😥 on November 06, 2018, 11:13:55 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night. Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:14:09 PM People say candidate quality doesn't matter but if so why did Tenny lose and Katko win? In part because Dems spent many many millions less on trying to beat Katko. Yes, candidate quality does make a difference though, but there are also other differences. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 11:14:19 PM DAVIS LEADING BY 3 IN IL 13 RETRACT THE CALL
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 06, 2018, 11:14:38 PM Manchin appears to be the sole survivor of the Great Blue Dog Death of 2018
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 11:14:43 PM Can King actually lose? It's one of those you won't believe it until you see it. This will be his most narrow win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 06, 2018, 11:14:56 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 06, 2018, 11:15:07 PM Scott Wallace was such a bad candidate.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 11:15:18 PM I don't think this is up anywhere yet, but Rossi is going DOWN. He's currently trailing by 15 (!) points. Early returns in WA tends to skew conservative/incumbent. http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/CongressionalDistrict8.html Yeah, that's a terrible result for Rossi. Seems very likely Schrier wins. Also bodes well for the Orange County seats I think... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 11:15:27 PM MJ Hegar is leading Carter!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 11:15:48 PM At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY. Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes... Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin... The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate. And that is a massive problem. But it didnt use to be when Dems had 2 senators from ND, a senate leader from SD and could win in races basically everywhere. Exactly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:15:56 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 06, 2018, 11:16:03 PM Manchin appears to be the sole survivor of the Great Blue Dog Death of 2018 Yeah tester still has a chance but it isn't great with Missouri and Indiana. Then again Tester is more a BDINO. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:16:05 PM Is it too early to say I told you so re: Gillum? Yeah, that would be a silly take. FL is just a lean R state, particularly in a midterm. Too many olds. Dems need Presidential turnout to win it, and even then it is a tough thing. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 11:16:06 PM 89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 11:16:41 PM What's really awful is that through all this the NCGOP's house gerrymander holds.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:16:47 PM WA-3 looking very close right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 11:16:57 PM De Leon is only 3 points behind Feinstein in the early California returns.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 11:17:21 PM I'm surprising that Craig hasn't pulled away yet... I thought that Lewis would be one of the first to go.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 11:17:43 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill! Gridlock was expected going into tonight. Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:17:48 PM Chris Collins at just 41.6%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 11:18:05 PM Weirdly enough Tester is doing fine right now. -Popular incumbent -Montana We have plenty of DEMs from Rural Parts of our States that represent a winning template in case anyone is interested.... ;) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 06, 2018, 11:18:34 PM FL down to just 52% chance Republican according to NYT
Nelson #backfromthedead Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 11:18:40 PM What's going on in Arizona?
It's like they reported half the votes then went home. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 11:19:07 PM Tester is up by 9 with 28% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 11:19:10 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill! Gridlock was expected going into tonight. Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this. But ONLY the base is behind him. He’s going to have a much harder time taking down the blue wall in 2020 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:19:17 PM Fox News called Hawley. GOP dominating the Senate. All three of the Midwestern Tossup Trifecta (IN/ND/MO) have fallen. I was optimistic, but I thought Braun would fall short. ND is not Midwestern (not in a meaningful sense of the term). It is Great Plains. It is very different from e.g. Ohio and Michigan. It is just a huge farm (also with some oil wells dug into the ground), and that is all. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 11:19:27 PM What's going on in Arizona? It's like they reported half the votes then went home. Narrow McSally lead, but no idea where the rest of the votes are coming from. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 11:20:00 PM CN NJumped the gun of IL 13, Davis is gonna win
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:20:15 PM De Leon keeping in close - only 2% in so far.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 11:20:30 PM NH-1 Called for Pappas by NYT :)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:21:23 PM I don't think this is up anywhere yet, but Rossi is going DOWN. He's currently trailing by 15 (!) points. Early returns in WA tends to skew conservative/incumbent. http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/CongressionalDistrict8.html Burbstomping! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 06, 2018, 11:21:32 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. Yeah this result is not really bad/unexpected unless you had unrealistic expectations. Sure, it could have been a bit better (mainly if Ds did 1% better in Florida), but other than that it is not really so crazy or bad at all for Dems. And there is quite a lot of good. As a dem, the senate losses are just gutting to me. If AZ doesn't go Sinema's way. I never envisioned a 46-54 senate. I was thinking 49-51 or 48-52 at worse. Feels impossible to win it back even if the Dems win the presidential in 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:21:37 PM WA-3 looking really really good, albeit really really close for Long.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 06, 2018, 11:21:47 PM Ohio Looks like Likely R for 2020. In a good environment for the dems they can't win an open governor seat and the incumbent senator nearly loses?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roblox on November 06, 2018, 11:21:53 PM Florida-dumber than Kansas.
Seriously though, I think it replaces North Carolina as the biggest democratic cocktease state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 06, 2018, 11:22:07 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill! Gridlock was expected going into tonight. Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 11:22:31 PM A Democrat hasn't held Ok-5th since the 70's ( !! ) -- I'm prepared to say this is a Blue Tsunami in the house.
Which makes the Senate and some of these Governor's races all the stranger. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 11:22:34 PM Williams is underperforming Tester by about 6%, so she'll probably fall just short. But I've been pretty bullish on this race all year, so I'm not giving up yet! I just want to see a giant congressional district be blue on the map once...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:23:08 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night. Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him. Huh ??? Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on November 06, 2018, 11:23:12 PM Florida-dumber than Kansas. Seriously though, I think it replaces North Carolina as the biggest democratic cocktease state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 11:23:17 PM RIP SN2093 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 11:23:43 PM If Democrats are going to invest in Georgia they need to invest in South Carolina. They basically have the same margin and one was completely ignored.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:24:30 PM MJ Hegar is leading Carter! !!! Depends on what has and has not reported, it is a quite polarized district, but still !!! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 11:24:30 PM CNN RETRACTED THE CALL IN IL 13
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 11:24:46 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night. Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him. Huh ??? Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base. In the 2006 midterms, Nelson won in a landslide against Katherine Harris. In the 2010 midterms, the Dems nearly won the Governorship in a very unfavorable environment. This year it should have been theirs. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 11:24:57 PM RIP Knute
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 11:25:00 PM Called it days ago... you should have been following my updates. ;) Actually downstate Oregon numbers don't really look that bad for Buehler IMHO based upon the first dump.... We'll see what happens with DEM and INDIE swings once we get more votes in.... MultoCo and WashCo looking like it will likely provide a decent firewall.... "Too Early to Call" ;) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 06, 2018, 11:25:06 PM So, Sununu won after all, after all the Kelly hype
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:25:31 PM Democrats just hit 50% in the popular vote. Hardly any of California in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:25:33 PM 89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA. Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 06, 2018, 11:25:33 PM I think it's worth noting that Brown well underperformed expectations, only winning by about 5% despite routinely being up double digits in polling.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 11:25:52 PM At 90%, Kemp is up 8. Only about 8% of Dekalb is out.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:26:38 PM 89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA. Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb. This is very true, I just don't think what's left is enough for Abrams to win. Maybe force a runoff, though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:26:52 PM Golden just overtook Poliquin in ME-2.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 06, 2018, 11:27:36 PM I knew it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 11:27:37 PM 89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA. Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb. There's not enough left in Fulton/DeKalb. Kemp has this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:28:01 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill! Gridlock was expected going into tonight. Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this. It does mean that in the short term. But over the longer term, all it means is that the Senate is an illegitimate legislative institution and that Dems will in the future prioritize reforming it along actual democratic representative lines. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 06, 2018, 11:28:37 PM Golden just overtook Poliquin in ME-2. Win that and go 3/4 in Iowa and there's at least some decent results in the WWC. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 11:28:38 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night. Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him. Huh ??? Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 11:28:55 PM TX-31 20% Reporting
John Carter 50.1% MJ. Hegar 48.4% Oh, wow! This is close! I'd almost take this as a consolation prize for McGraths loss. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 06, 2018, 11:29:47 PM Did anybody have Ohio senate race being this close?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 11:29:58 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night. Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him. Huh ??? Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base. Any blame is on the state party, not the voters who chose a truly better candidate--FLDP should've worked harder, done whatever they could, to make sure as many voters turned out as possible. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on November 06, 2018, 11:30:46 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill! Gridlock was expected going into tonight. Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this. It does mean that in the short term. But over the longer term, all it means is that the Senate is an illegitimate legislative institution and that Dems will in the future prioritize reforming it along actual democratic representative lines. I always find it amusing when opponents of Republicans complain that the system is against them. Seems a bit childish, with all due respect. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:30:59 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. Yeah this result is not really bad/unexpected unless you had unrealistic expectations. Sure, it could have been a bit better (mainly if Ds did 1% better in Florida), but other than that it is not really so crazy or bad at all for Dems. And there is quite a lot of good. As a dem, the senate losses are just gutting to me. If AZ doesn't go Sinema's way. I never envisioned a 46-54 senate. I was thinking 49-51 or 48-52 at worse. Feels impossible to win it back even if the Dems win the presidential in 2020. It was possible that Dems could have done better in the Senate, but even if that were the case, this same thing happening now would have just happened in a few cycles. It is just happening a bit sooner this way. It is sort of better this way, because at least it means that nobody will any longer have false hope or illusion about the Senate as an institution. Bottom line - Dems have the House, Trump can't pass any legislation, and Dems are set up for 2020. All Dems need to do in 2020 is repeat this same election. It is enough to win, just winning the same places Dems won in this election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 11:31:26 PM 89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA. Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb. Fluton is totally in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 11:31:38 PM Jesus Ivey barely won Mobile
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:32:48 PM Libertarian Brian Luke pulling 27.5% of the vote in WA-2 (no Republican on the ballot).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 11:33:01 PM Why is Nevada taking so long?
Anyone know? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 06, 2018, 11:34:01 PM Have Nevada decided not to count any vote today or what?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2018, 11:34:16 PM Why is Nevada taking so long? Anyone know? I think some polling places were open late Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 06, 2018, 11:34:47 PM I live out west and momentum has certainly stopped when polls started coming out in favor of GOP again
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:34:59 PM Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night. Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him. Huh ??? Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base. In the 2006 midterms, Nelson won in a landslide against Katherine Harris. In the 2010 midterms, the Dems nearly won the Governorship in a very unfavorable environment. This year it should have been theirs. That was when the makeup of the Democratic party was very different. There were still Dixiecrats around to vote for Nelson. There will still old people who remembered FDR. Dems were still winning Congressional districts in places like rural Tennessee. That ship sailed in 2010. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BundouYMB on November 06, 2018, 11:35:00 PM Can I get Horfoid's take on Democrats currently leading in all 4 Iowa seats? 52% in for King's district and he's actually down by more. Democrats still leading in all 4 IA seats and the IA gubernatorial race. I'm still waiting for your hot take of how this could happen when Democrats hAtE thE WwC MeN Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:35:04 PM Does anyone have any idea what's happening in TX-31? Hegar is over Carter 50.2-48.4 with 60% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 06, 2018, 11:35:12 PM AP has called MI-SEN for Debbie Stabenow.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 11:35:38 PM Why is Nevada taking so long? Anyone know? I think some polling places were open late Yes, and don't forget that voters still in line when the polls close still get to vote. The Elections Board tweeted: Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: riceowl on November 06, 2018, 11:36:26 PM Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 11:36:33 PM Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov Republicans. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:37:00 PM 89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA. Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb. There's not enough left in Fulton/DeKalb. Kemp has this. I didn't say that it was enough. I just meant it would narrow. I had predicted Kemp winning FWIW, and posted some pessimistic early vote analysis yesterday on GA which seems to have panned out more or less as it seemed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 06, 2018, 11:37:01 PM Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks FTFY Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 11:37:19 PM Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!! And Virginia, for crafting the changes to help keep it up. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 11:38:18 PM Did anybody have Ohio senate race being this close? Nope. Looks like John James' late close in the polls was real, too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 11:38:21 PM Heitkamp is actually doing better than McCaskill, Donnelly, and Bredesen.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 11:38:22 PM NC elects Anita Earls (D) to the state Supreme Court. Dems will have 5-2 majority.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:38:27 PM Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov Both of which were controlled by Republicans beforehand?? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:38:54 PM NC Elect Anita Earls (D) to the state Supreme Court. Dems will have 5-2 majority. Silver linings are great things. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 11:39:02 PM Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!! Biggest upset of the night! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 06, 2018, 11:39:10 PM Governor Race in Wisconsin is extremely close, 96% of Milwaukee reported In the Milwaukee thread Green Bay still 100% out where Evers should have a lead and about 60k absentee ballots for Milwaukee not counted yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:39:45 PM LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years. LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill! Gridlock was expected going into tonight. Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this. It does mean that in the short term. But over the longer term, all it means is that the Senate is an illegitimate legislative institution and that Dems will in the future prioritize reforming it along actual democratic representative lines. I always find it amusing when opponents of Republicans complain that the system is against them. Seems a bit childish, with all due respect. Nah, what we have here is an outcome where Dems are winning the popular vote by 10% (maybe a bit less, but even if it is more like 5%, it is still a clear and substantial win). It is not childish to think that election results should reflect the will of the people. It is just democratic principles. If our electoral system violates fundamental democratic principles, so much the worse for our electoral system. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 11:40:18 PM SC-01 is down to 3 points.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:40:26 PM Freehan (D) now leading in MN-01 with 64% of the vote in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 11:41:08 PM Did anybody have Ohio senate race being this close? Nope. Looks like John James' late close in the polls was real, too. I think the GOP takes both OH and MI if they were open seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:41:21 PM Does anyone have any idea what's happening in TX-31? Hegar is over Carter 50.2-48.4 with 60% in. I have no idea what has reported, but my guess would be that probably the votes that reported are mostly in Killeen or Round Rock/Cedar Park. Most likely R precincts in Georgetown/north Williamson County or around Temple still have to report. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Helsinkian on November 06, 2018, 11:41:34 PM So Arthur Jones, the former leader of the American Nazi Party, got ~26% in IL-03. That's more than the normal Republican candidate in neighbouring IL-01.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 11:41:38 PM Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!! *Virginia Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 06, 2018, 11:41:46 PM I mean, there have been plenty of times where election results have gone against the will of the people, and there has been systematic bias before, but I can't think of a time where there has been systematic bias that has overturned the popular vote result over an extended period of time, in modern democracies. Just from a purely non-partisan perspective, this indicates dysfunction.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 06, 2018, 11:41:50 PM DAVIS STILL LEADS IN IL-13 WITH 95 IN, CNN RETRACTED THE CALL
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:42:01 PM Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov Republicans, you mean. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 06, 2018, 11:43:30 PM Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov Republicans, you mean. Might as well be Dems Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 11:43:41 PM NC elects Anita Earls (D) to the state Supreme Court. Dems will have 5-2 majority. On top of this....both of the NCGOP's ballot proposals went down in utter flames. The Judicial Vacancy Commission is losing 33% - 67% The Legislative Appointments to Elections Board is losing 38% - 62% both with 97% in The voter ID proposal is approved though Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:43:47 PM Republicans doing well in Minnesota, they won the 8th, the 1st congressional seat is extremely competitive.. They are doing well in RURAL Minneosta, yes. RURAL is the key there, and this is part of the larger trend of Rs doing well in rural areas and Dems doing well in urban/suburban areas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:44:00 PM CNN is projecting Fletcher winning TX-07. Culberson Down!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 06, 2018, 11:44:20 PM This is a weird election.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 11:44:22 PM Governor Race in Wisconsin is extremely close, 96% of Milwaukee reported The WOW counties are also all in. Remaining votes are scattered, some in the Driftless, a bunch in La Crosse, some in Dane, some in the Walker-friendly eastern small cities, some in random rural counties. Given how close it is, tiny, heavily D Menominee could also make the difference when it finally decides to drop. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 06, 2018, 11:44:24 PM Yeah, Ohio is definitely going to be the toughest nut to crack of the Trump states.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: indietraveler on November 06, 2018, 11:44:29 PM NYT called it for Cindy Anxe!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jersey Jimmy on November 06, 2018, 11:45:33 PM SC-01 is down to 3 points. almost down to 2 points gonna be poppin mad bottles if Joe pulls it off Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RINO Tom on November 06, 2018, 11:46:09 PM Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov Republicans, you mean. Look who you’re quoting. ;) Republicans he likes = Democrats, and to his credit, it caught on rather nicely with his circle jerk club of IceSpear, IndyRep and Timmy! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 06, 2018, 11:46:19 PM The worst Governor Oregon has had in at least the past 60 years got reelected
Just damn Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:46:23 PM SC-01 is down to 3 points. almost down to 2 points gonna be poppin mad bottles if Joe pulls it off If a seat flips in SC but not NC, I'm going to be mad. lmao Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:46:43 PM Pete King has got to be sweating right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cold War Liberal on November 06, 2018, 11:46:53 PM I mean this isn't ideal but not terrible either. Gillum, Abrams, Donnelly, McCaskill, and Beto losing hurt, and Gillum and Beto losing rather narrowly hurts more than if they get blown out. Some high points in the House tho. It is what it is.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Coolface Sock #42069 on November 06, 2018, 11:47:10 PM So Arthur Jones, the former leader of the American Nazi Party, got ~26% in IL-03. That's more than the normal Republican candidate in neighbouring IL-01. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 06, 2018, 11:47:14 PM It seems like this was a realignment midterm.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:47:25 PM Nate Cohn says SC-1 is set to be a dead heat.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 06, 2018, 11:47:26 PM The worst Governor Oregon has had in at least the past 60 years got reelected Just damn Ha, just like I called it as well. 7 + points. So proud to have voted to reelect Kate earlier. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 06, 2018, 11:47:41 PM Governor Race in Wisconsin is extremely close, 96% of Milwaukee reported The WOW counties are also all in. Looks like most of the remaining votes are in the Driftless, although Dane has some left, as do some of the small, Walker-favorable cities in the east. Given how close it is, tiny, heavily D Menominee could also make the difference when it finally decides to drop. The entire City of Green Bay is still out. Most of La Crosse County is still out. Most of Portage County/City of Stevens Point is out. The 3 counties, minus Menomiee County concern me, however. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 06, 2018, 11:48:17 PM I'm a big fan of Josh Hawley. Wouldn't be surprised to see him in the national spotlight in the future.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2018, 11:48:27 PM It seems like this was a realignment midterm. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:48:52 PM CNN needs to call Missouri.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2018, 11:49:09 PM Best tweet I've seen tonight:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 11:49:19 PM Omg Cunnigham won Sullivan island by 16 points! Clinton won by only 1 point there.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:49:33 PM It seems like this was a realignment midterm. Without a doubt. This is just as a big of an alignment as 1994. Except instead of the South, this is the Suburbs vs. Rural areas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 06, 2018, 11:49:40 PM The new chairs of the House committees must under no circumstances be go-along-to-get-along elderly minority hacks.
And Chuck Schumer should be fired by what's left of the D senate conference. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 11:49:51 PM What is the box score on the governors? How many were up and what flipped?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 11:49:59 PM The worst Governor Oregon has had in at least the past 60 years got reelected Just damn Ha, just like I called it as well. 7 + points. So proud to have voted to reelect Kate earlier. All of Oregon's conservative ballot proposals went down too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 11:50:11 PM 538 has Democrats favored in TX-31.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 06, 2018, 11:50:13 PM Ik Texas was called but the margin is still pretty close. I know Cruz will win but amazing job to Beto for doing only points worse than Bill Nelson
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 06, 2018, 11:50:29 PM Moral of the story: the Democratic base is the metropolitan elite.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:50:32 PM Governor Race in Wisconsin is extremely close, 96% of Milwaukee reported The WOW counties are also all in. Remaining votes are scattered, some in the Driftless, a bunch in La Crosse, some in Dane, some in the Walker-friendly eastern small cities, some in random rural counties. Given how close it is, tiny, heavily D Menominee could also make the difference when it finally decides to drop. Ugh, Evers had better pull it off. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 06, 2018, 11:50:39 PM I'm a big fan of Josh Hawley. Wouldn't be surprised to see him in the national spotlight in the future. I would pay to see that weasel get destroyed on the national stage. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 06, 2018, 11:51:17 PM On the bright side these seats were gone in 2024 anyway.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:51:20 PM Sloktin (D) now leading MI-08 win 93% of the vote in according to CNN, has been behind all night up until now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 06, 2018, 11:51:22 PM Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!! And Virginia, for crafting the changes to help keep it up. If Virginia in charge of the IT side of Atlas? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:51:26 PM Yeah, Ohio is definitely going to be the toughest nut to crack of the Trump states. Dems may have a better shot at winning TX in 2020 than Ohio. Which is not to say that Dems are likely to win TX, just that it may be a better shot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:52:56 PM Yeah, Ohio is definitely going to be the toughest nut to crack of the Trump states. Dems may have a better shot at winning TX in 2020 than Ohio. Which is not to say that Dems are likely to win TX, just that it may be a better shot. I doubt anyone was thinking this in 2012, when you'd have been laughed out of the room if you had said so. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 06, 2018, 11:52:57 PM Welp (99% reporting)
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:53:04 PM The new chairs of the House committees must under no circumstances be go-along-to-get-along elderly minority hacks. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 06, 2018, 11:53:50 PM MI-06 is even still within reach for the Democrats. Could be a real coup.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 06, 2018, 11:54:21 PM Moral of the story: the Democratic base is the metropolitan elite. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 06, 2018, 11:54:24 PM 72% in and tied in SC-01
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:54:25 PM 538 has Democrats favored in TX-31. 538 doesn't have county or precinct results, so it is basically meaningless. Some precincts are heavily Dem in TX-31, others strongly R. It all depends on what has reported in the various different counts. Killeen/Cedar Park/Round Rock = good for Hegar Everything else (except a few minority precincts in Temple) = good for Carter Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:54:27 PM MI-06 is even still within reach for the Democrats. Could be a real coup. MI-07 as well, strangely enough. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:54:36 PM The lack of vote counting in AZ is incredibly annoying.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 06, 2018, 11:54:58 PM Hearing talk about Steve King losing, but CNN has him up 8? What?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 06, 2018, 11:55:35 PM Hearing talk about Steve King losing, but CNN has him up 8? What? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Reaganfan on November 06, 2018, 11:56:05 PM Senator-elect Scott is speaking to supporters.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 11:56:11 PM Has Carolyn Bourdeaux won? Wow.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2018, 11:56:31 PM NYT gives an estimate of 230 D 205 R.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:57:11 PM NYT gives an estimate of 230 D 205 R. Par for the course really. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2018, 11:57:12 PM What is the box score on the governors? How many were up and what flipped? Ds have gained 4 so far (Michigan, Illinois, Kansas and New Mexico). Iowa and Wisconsin are nailbiters but Dems currently lead. I'd say the Ds are favored in Wisconsin while Rs are favored to regain the lead in Iowa based on what is out. Maine looks virtually certain to go D but has not been called yet. No results have been reported in Nevada yet. So anything from D+4, likely +5 to D+8. Edit: Forgot about Georgia. Sizeable R lead with a lot counted. Some of the most Democratic parts of the state, including I think the entire city of Atlanta, have not reported yet, but it seems to me almost certainly not enough to make a difference in the winner even if the result tightens significantly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2018, 11:57:29 PM Steve King won. RIP Politician for the millionth time tonight. Hopefully he has as many lives as a cat...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 06, 2018, 11:57:34 PM Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!! And Virginia, for crafting the changes to help keep it up. If Virginia in charge of the IT side of Atlas? I made a thank you thread to Virginia (and Dave Leip). Post about it there to avoid cluttering up this thread. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306068.0 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 11:57:42 PM Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!! And Virginia, for crafting the changes to help keep it up. If Virginia in charge of the IT side of Atlas? She takes initiatives. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 06, 2018, 11:58:07 PM Hearing talk about Steve King losing, but CNN has him up 8? What? NYT has him up by 40 votes with 69% in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 06, 2018, 11:58:11 PM CNN says McCaskill is out.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2018, 11:58:15 PM MO finally called. Is anyone else thinking Arizona is gone too?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 06, 2018, 11:58:20 PM Has Carolyn Bourdeaux won? Wow. CNN has her up 52.1-47.9 with 97% in. I'm amazed as well. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wolfey123 on November 06, 2018, 11:58:34 PM All i can say is tonight both parties have a reason to celebrate
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 06, 2018, 11:58:54 PM SC-01 is down to 3 points. almost down to 2 points gonna be poppin mad bottles if Joe pulls it off So excited if Joe wins. It's basically tied now with still 35% out in Charleston county. Colleton still hasn't reported, but that county could go either way Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 06, 2018, 11:59:06 PM Did anybody have Ohio senate race being this close? Hell no. And I'm shocked. The polls were really off here. I wonder if Putin is doing a dry run for 2020 in Florida, Ohio, and Michigan? ??? It sure would explain a lot. ;) Seriously though, I'm kind of having trouble figuring out where Brown ran behind. He seems to be hitting all his benchmarks with stratospheric numbers in Cleveland Toledo, Northeast Ohio in general, plus rocking it in Columbus and Cincy. The best I can tell, tentatively, is that the Republican whose name my voice to text can't recognize overperformed mightily in his congressional district, including Canton Stark County. It's normally a swing County, perhaps a point or so Democratic, but brown ran about four or five points behind his Statewide total. He also seems to have run weekly in what would generally be referred to his Ted Strickland's old District. Everything south of Youngstown, which yes I know was technically in Strickland's District, sweeping down through counties along two or three counties deep from the Ohio River through Route 23 in places like Chillicothe in Portsmouth. Brown didn't win a single County outside the People's Republic of Athens in that entire region. Put another way, he didn't win any other County East of Cincy and south of Columbus or Youngstown. Yes, those are largely very rural counties and very trumpy areas, but it includes a number of working class counties with Democratic strength like Ross, sciota, Pike, Monroe, Belmont, Jefferson, Hocking, Etc. The fact Brown didn't win a single one of those counties just demonstrates the Trump ization of Appalachian Ohio. Otherwise, it looks like the Republican met the goals he needed to in the Suburban counties surrounding Cincy, plus hitting hi benchmarks elsewhere. I'm still surprised though because, if you had told me the numbers that brown was running out of Cleveland, Columbus, since he, Toledo, and Northeast Ohio and general, I would have said he had this race in the bag by a landslide. Just goes to show that now kicking ass and taking names in traditional democratic strongholds are the bare minimum necessary to overcome an increasingly hostile rest of the state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 06, 2018, 11:59:12 PM It seems like this was a realignment midterm. 2010 might be more of a realignment midterm. And 2016 is the real realignment election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: I’m not Stu on November 06, 2018, 11:59:40 PM Kevin de Leon easily won Lassen County. That is hilarious!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: beesley on November 06, 2018, 11:59:51 PM Has Carolyn Bourdeaux won? Wow. She has. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GAKas on November 07, 2018, 12:00:09 AM MSNBC still says Stacey could throw it to a runoff because of Gwinnett county. Is this true?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 12:00:12 AM CNN just called FL.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 12:00:53 AM Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov Ah, I see what you did there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 07, 2018, 12:01:57 AM Why hasnt the results of NV come in yet
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 12:03:21 AM Kevin de Leon easily won Lassen County. That is hilarious! Republicans are clearly voting for de Leon. He's winning the entire Central Valley. I don't think it will be enough, especially given the large undervote, but he is doing much better than I expected. If de Leon beats Feinstein on the back of Republican votes, I think the top two system is going to be repealed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 12:03:28 AM MO finally called. Is anyone else thinking Arizona is gone too? No. Election day vote in Phoenix and Tucson are barely starting to be counted, whereas at least some rural R areas like Prescott have already reported. Plus there are 100K+ ballots that won't be counted until more than a week from now in Maricopa county. Basically it is almost all early vote, where Rs traditionally do better IIRC than election day in AZ. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 07, 2018, 12:03:31 AM Has Carolyn Bourdeaux won? Wow. CNN has her up 52.1-47.9 with 97% in. I'm amazed as well. I called this one in the Bold Predictions thread a while ago. Woodall ran a nonexistent campaign (zero TV ads) while Bourdeaux was very visible. Between that, the changing demographics in Gwinnett, and the Abrams GOTV effort turning out Democrats, this was my top pick for an upset. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 12:04:19 AM The sad thing about FL is those old farts will not reap any repercussions since Democrats won the house. It elections like this that sometimes makes me wish R's swept everything so these assholes finally see what they voted for.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 07, 2018, 12:04:40 AM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 07, 2018, 12:05:30 AM The lack of vote counting in AZ is incredibly annoying. It's going to take days. Arizona always takes several days to count. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 07, 2018, 12:06:06 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 12:06:23 AM The sad thing about FL is those old farts will not reap any repercussions since Democrats won the house. It elections like this that sometimes makes me wish R's swept everything so these assholes finally see what they voted for. The problem with that is we'd all suffer just to make a point to the other side. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: I’m not Stu on November 07, 2018, 12:06:26 AM Kevin de Leon easily won Lassen County. That is hilarious! Republicans are clearly voting for de Leon. He's winning the entire Central Valley. I don't think it will be enough, especially given the large undervote, but he is doing much better than I expected. If de Leon beats Feinstein on the back of Republican votes, I think the top two system is going to be repealed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 12:06:42 AM Wow!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 12:06:48 AM Bordeaux wins?!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 12:07:00 AM The sad thing about FL is those old farts will not reap any repercussions since Democrats won the house. It elections like this that sometimes makes me wish R's swept everything so these assholes finally see what they voted for. The problem with that is we'd all suffer just to make a point to the other side. Yeah, which is why I said sometimes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 12:08:17 AM DAVIS STILL LEADS IN IL-13 WITH 95 IN, CNN RETRACTED THE CALL We get it. You can stop with the all caps posting now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 12:08:46 AM Besides beto a lot of the media democrats greatly under performed. Abrams, Gillum,Ojeda, etc. Yet some underdogs like Kendra Horn won and Laura Kelly destroyed KKKobach
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 07, 2018, 12:09:22 AM DAVIS STILL LEADS IN IL-13 WITH 95 IN, CNN RETRACTED THE CALL We get it. You can stop with the all caps posting now. NEVER Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 07, 2018, 12:09:47 AM I will now accept my accolades.
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Incipimus iterum on November 07, 2018, 12:09:49 AM This kinda reminds me of the 1970 midterm elections. The democrats gained seats in the house and the republicans won seats in the senate.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 12:09:54 AM The new chairs of the House committees must under no circumstances be go-along-to-get-along elderly minority hacks. And Chuck Schumer should be fired by what's left of the D senate conference. And pigs should learn to fly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 12:10:17 AM NYT just lowered it to D 229. (Where have I heard that before.)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:11:26 AM AP calls NJ-02 for Van Drew (D).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jersey Jimmy on November 07, 2018, 12:12:23 AM THE MADMAN MIGHT ACTUALLY DO IT
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 12:12:34 AM Cunningham in the lead in SC-01
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 07, 2018, 12:12:45 AM I'm signing off. I haven't said much in this thread overall, but I'm just exhausted. Even though this hasn't been the worst election ever, it is clear that this country is polarized beyond the point of repair and rationality. I can't really find it in me to enjoy the several surprise victories that the Democrats have had. I will say that perhaps the one most most worth celebrating, that made the happiest was seeing Laura Kelly win in Kansas. We'll never have to deal with Kobach again...hopefully.
But I just wanted an overall clear win. Sure, I expected some losses here and there, I always thought DeWine would win-so we aren't getting President or Vice President Sherrod Brown (has DeWine finally held every elected office in Ohio?). But my malaise is mostly due to the Senate results, some Gubernatorial results, and f***ing Florida in general of course. I tried to have reasonable expectations and simultaneously those expectations were too bullish with my Senate and Gubernatorial predictions and too bearish with my House predictions, at the same time. I thought the Democrats would lose Senate seats in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota but I can't believe that we're going to see an even bigger drubbing. I wouldn't be surprised if Heller and McSally win at this point. Yet I also can't believe that the Democrats won an Oklahoma House race. I'm feeling very conflicted and confused overall. I think I need to take a break from politics, in spite of how ubiquitous it is, for the sake of my mental health. I'm having minor 2016 flashbacks. This election is like learning that a beloved family member has cancer, but when that family member succumbs to it, you will inherit property in their will. That's a bit dark...but so is this country's political landscape. American voters didn't learn after 2010, 2014, and 2016, and most likely they aren't going to learn now either. I am actually even more worried for the future as we're seeing that Trumpism is here to stay as those are the Republicans that have survived much like in 2016. Even if it won't be noticeable in every corner of this "great" country the GOP is destined to remain an ethno-nationalist, white grievance, fear-based party. Even with this new Democratic House there is a negative caveat. They will most likely become an effective scapegoat for the President and his all-powerful cabal. I am actually more secure in predicting that he gets re-elected than I was prior if this election is any indication, even with its silver linings. I don't know...somehow things make even less sense than they did on November 8, 2016. I said back then that I would never trust a poll ever again, and clearly that self-imposed advice didn't stick. I am bracing myself for the inevitable Trump-GOP gloating over our inflated expectations, once more, even though they didn't have a particularly great night either. It's going to be intolerable. They're allowed to have mixed results and spin them as a win, but we can't. Watching CNN tonight was like listening to a demotivational audiotape. They declared the blue wave dead because Amy McGrath lost. That was one hell of a way to confirm my suspicions about how the media is going to help set the narrative about tonight's results. So I guess what we're seeing at best has been a blue splash. Yay? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 12:13:40 AM Kim Davis lost the Rowan County Clerk race. :D
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 12:14:05 AM Kevin de Leon easily won Lassen County. That is hilarious! Republicans are clearly voting for de Leon. He's winning the entire Central Valley. I don't think it will be enough, especially given the large undervote, but he is doing much better than I expected. If de Leon beats Feinstein on the back of Republican votes, I think the top two system is going to be repealed. It should be anyway. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 12:15:13 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL. It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 12:15:47 AM Haha Kate Brown has won.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 07, 2018, 12:16:31 AM I'm signing off. I haven't said much in this thread overall, but I'm just exhausted. Even though this hasn't been the worst election ever, it is clear that this country is polarized beyond the point of repair and rationality. I can't really find it in me to enjoy the several surprise victories that the Democrats have had. I will say that perhaps the one most most worth celebrating, that made the happiest was seeing Laura Kelly win in Kansas. We'll never have to deal with Kobach again...hopefully. But I just wanted an overall clear win. Sure, I expected some losses here and there, I always thought DeWine would win-so we aren't getting President or Vice President Sherrod Brown (has DeWine finally held every elected office in Ohio?). But my malaise is mostly due to the Senate results, some Gubernatorial results, and f***ing Florida in general of course. I tried to have reasonable expectations and simultaneously those expectations were too bullish with my Senate and Gubernatorial predictions and too bearish with my House predictions, at the same time. I thought the Democrats would lose Senate seats in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota but I can't believe that we're going to see an even bigger drubbing. I wouldn't be surprised if Heller and McSally win at this point. Yet I also can't believe that the Democrats won an Oklahoma House race. I'm feeling very conflicted and confused overall. I think I need to take a break from politics, in spite of how ubiquitous it is, for the sake of my mental health. I'm having minor 2016 flashbacks. This election is like learning that a beloved family member has cancer, but when that family member succumbs to it, you will inherit property in their will. That's a bit dark...but so is this country's political landscape. American voters didn't learn after 2010, 2014, and 2016, and most likely they aren't going to learn now either. I am actually even more worried for the future as we're seeing that Trumpism is here to stay as those are the Republicans that have survived much like in 2016. Even if it won't be noticeable in every corner of this "great" country the GOP is destined to remain an ethno-nationalist, white grievance, fear-based party. Even with this new Democratic House there is a negative caveat. They will most likely become an effective scapegoat for the President and his all-powerful cabal. I am actually more secure in predicting that he gets re-elected than I was prior if this election is any indication, even with its silver linings. I don't know...somehow things make even less sense than they did on November 8, 2016. I said back then that I would never trust a poll ever again, and clearly that self-imposed advice didn't stick. I am bracing myself for the inevitable Trump-GOP gloating over our inflated expectations, once more, even though they didn't have a particularly great night either. It's going to be intolerable. They're allowed to have mixed results and spin them as a win, but we can't. Watching CNN tonight was like listening to a demotivational audiotape. They declared the blue wave dead because Amy McGrath lost. That was one hell of a way to confirm my suspicions about how the media is going to help set the narrative about tonight's results. So I guess what we're seeing at best has been a blue splash. Yay? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 12:16:46 AM one thing that should be looked at is African American turnout.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 07, 2018, 12:18:24 AM one thing that should be looked at is African American turnout. This statement is sort of hanging out there without any context and seems odd. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 12:18:29 AM Feehan just pulled ahead in MN-1. Republicans may have to settle with just MN-8 and PA-14.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Heisenberg on November 07, 2018, 12:18:42 AM Montana is getting close, but tester is still leading Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:18:55 AM We have a 50.0-50.0 tie in GA-06 with Handel up 170 votes with 99% reporting according to CNN. Talk about close!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 07, 2018, 12:22:01 AM THE MADMAN MIGHT ACTUALLY DO IT () It’s going to be super close either way. Not surprised by this result at all Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 12:22:21 AM 538 and NYT have the Dems winning SC-01
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: I’m not Stu on November 07, 2018, 12:22:22 AM McSally's lead is now down to 0.3%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 07, 2018, 12:22:54 AM Looks like Gina Ortiz Jones actually kept TX-23 really close, but it won't quite be enough.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 07, 2018, 12:23:20 AM McSally's lead is now down to 0.3%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fluffypanther19 on November 07, 2018, 12:23:36 AM this has been a weird election
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 07, 2018, 12:23:48 AM this has been a weird election Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 12:23:51 AM McSally's lead is now down to 0.3%. R's already won the senate, so they don't care anymore. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 07, 2018, 12:24:17 AM Final thoughts before going to bed. I wrote this in the Election Day tips thread:
Quote If your side does well, always remember that it could have been better ("Damn, we almost got Rep. Dorque.") If your side does poorly, remember that it could have been worse ("Whew, at least Dorque survived.") It's OK to celebrate or mourn the results, but try not to lash out at others in the process. It's a mixed result, a split decision, which in general is in line with my expectations. But I'm definitely in the first category above, not the second; my side achieved the single most important goal, flipping the House. Not achieving this would have been a disaster. Certainly there are some results I'm disappointed in, especially here in Georgia (although there are bright spots, like GA-07). But on the whole I feel the wins outweigh the losses, and I'll sleep well tonight -- something that didn't happen in 2016. Good night, everyone. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 12:24:23 AM Spanberger and Luria!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:24:49 AM Evers still up with 87% in according to CNN. CNN seems to have forgotten about this one as well.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on November 07, 2018, 12:25:18 AM It has been wacky
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 12:25:41 AM Arizona results here: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0
Still a lot of votes to count. What is the make up of the outstanding areas? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 07, 2018, 12:25:49 AM Evers still up with 87% in according to CNN. CNN seems to have forgotten about this one as well. 89% down by about 1,200. “Machine Problems” in New Berlin so likely Republican funny business going on again. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 07, 2018, 12:26:07 AM Final thoughts before going to bed. I wrote this in the Election Day tips thread: Quote If your side does well, always remember that it could have been better ("Damn, we almost got Rep. Dorque.") If your side does poorly, remember that it could have been worse ("Whew, at least Dorque survived.") It's OK to celebrate or mourn the results, but try not to lash out at others in the process. It's a mixed result, a split decision, which in general is in line with my expectations. But I'm definitely in the first category above, not the second; my side achieved the single most important goal, flipping the House. Not achieving this would have been a disaster. Certainly there are some results I'm disappointed in, especially here in Georgia (although there are bright spots, like GA-07). But on the whole I feel the wins outweigh the losses, and I'll sleep well tonight -- something that didn't happen in 2016. Good night, everyone. I envy you. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 07, 2018, 12:26:16 AM NM 2 looks like a hold for Reps
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 12:26:21 AM McAdams still has a big lead with 71% in...I think he's going to pull this off.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 12:26:45 AM Evers still up with 87% in according to CNN. CNN seems to have forgotten about this one as well. 89% down by about 1,200. “Machine Problems” in New Berlin so likely Republican funny business going on again. Word on a ad is Walker is now slightly up. :( Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 07, 2018, 12:27:04 AM Arizona results here: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 Still a lot of votes to count. What is the make up of the outstanding areas? Years of watching results have told me that Dems always gain 1-2% in AZ over the coming days. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 07, 2018, 12:27:18 AM It's over. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 07, 2018, 12:28:12 AM GA-06 almost certain to go to a recount, GA-07 looks like a pickup. Disappointing to see Abrams lose but these are some damn good consolation prizes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 12:28:33 AM Florida was such a flop. Gawd I wish we could just replace the entire FL Dem Party. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 07, 2018, 12:29:01 AM Evers still up with 87% in according to CNN. CNN seems to have forgotten about this one as well. 89% down by about 1,200. “Machine Problems” in New Berlin so likely Republican funny business going on again. Word on a ad is Walker is now slightly up. :( Manitowoc still half out, too. Looks like Walker is in the driver seat for now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 12:29:12 AM ND and IN ended up having almost the exact same margin.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 12:31:48 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL. It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election. It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 07, 2018, 12:33:56 AM Does Nevada plan on reporting orrrr?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 07, 2018, 12:33:57 AM It was a historically awful map. Doesn't excuse Florida however. Schumer has to go for sure. Just happy we convincingly won the House. There was a point where even that looked shaky.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Reaganfan on November 07, 2018, 12:35:26 AM As a right-wing hack, I can honestly say I feel good tonight. I honestly thought Gillum, Nelson, Cordray were gonna win, I was concerned about Hawley and Braun losing. Now perhaps even Walker, McSally and Heller could pull through.
If Reaganfan feels good, that cannot be good for libs. Once again, and this has been going on now this entire decade: The polls underestimate Republican voters The Atlas overstates Democrat enthusiasm Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 07, 2018, 12:35:50 AM I live out west and momentum has certainly stopped when polls started coming out in favor of GOP again Dude, I live out West too, and quite frankly not a bag where voters didn't drop their ballots off because of election results.... THAT IS SO Early '90s MaN.... JUST SAYIN' :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:35:59 AM Does Nevada plan on reporting orrrr? Evidently they decided they won't report until everyone is done voting... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 07, 2018, 12:36:57 AM Does Nevada plan on reporting orrrr? Evidently they decided they won't report until everyone is done voting... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 12:37:09 AM Wait when did Woodall take the lead?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 12:38:20 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL. It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election. It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave. A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 07, 2018, 12:38:35 AM Florida was such a flop. Gawd I wish we could just replace the entire FL Dem Party. As I said before the election, if the Florida Democratic Party manages to lose both the governor race and senate race, the whole party should be disbanded and future election campaigns should be run from DNC's headquarter. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 12:38:55 AM As a right-wing hack, I can honestly say I feel good tonight. I honestly thought Gillum, Nelson, Cordray were gonna win, I was concerned about Hawley and Braun losing. Now perhaps even Walker, McSally and Heller could pull through. If Reaganfan feels good, that cannot be good for libs. Once again, and this has been going on now this entire decade: The polls underestimate Republican voters The Atlas overstates Democrat enthusiasm Yawn, you were going to say this no matter what happened. It's obviously a really big deal that your party lost the House, even though the districts were gerrymandered back in ~2011 for this not to be possible this decade. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:40:59 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL. It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election. It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave. A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost? Hilary narrowly lost and so did Nelson. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 07, 2018, 12:42:39 AM Things will be better for FL with Amendment 4, I have no doubt both Gillum/Nelson would've won if felons could've voted.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 07, 2018, 12:43:02 AM Moral of the story: the Democratic base is the metropolitan elite. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 12:43:18 AM Does Nevada plan on reporting orrrr? Evidently they decided they won't report until everyone is done voting... So I'm guessing they'll just release the final results all at once? Like any minute now they'll just say "oh, btw Rosen [or Heller] wins!" ?? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 12:44:14 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL. It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election. It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave. A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost? Hilary narrowly lost and so did Nelson. And neither of these elections is a wave. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:46:06 AM Politico calls Maine Gov. for Mills (D).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 07, 2018, 12:46:41 AM James only took 8% of the black vote in MI.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Reaganfan on November 07, 2018, 12:46:50 AM Things will be better for FL with Amendment 4, I have no doubt both Gillum/Nelson would've won if felons could've voted. What a sad state for Democrats. "If only we get criminals to the polls..." Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 12:47:19 AM CA-25 and CA-48 are both 50.0-50.0 now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 12:47:40 AM Democrats won a trifecta in Maine.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 12:47:42 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL. It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election. It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave. A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost? Your question implicitly concedes that "states" are what matter rather than representing the will of the people as expressed through their votes. I do not concede that. If the electoral system does not represent the people's will as they express them through their votes, then the problem lies with the electoral system, not with the people's votes. But in any case, yes, you always have a certain number of tough losses in a wave. For example, Rs losing NV and CO senate races in 2010, and generally performing badly on the West coast despite doing very well elsewhere in the East and Midwest. This is not really characteristically different from that at all. So if 2010 was a wave, than this is as well. And it is not really reasonable to say 2010 was not a wave, I don't think. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 07, 2018, 12:48:27 AM Things will be better for FL with Amendment 4, I have no doubt both Gillum/Nelson would've won if felons could've voted. What a sad state for Democrats. "If only we get criminals to the polls..." Dude, you never post on this board. You're showing up just to brag. Go away. You're pathetic and you have no business here. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 07, 2018, 12:48:33 AM This is so stupid how the results have slowed down.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 12:48:33 AM It's obviously a really big deal that your party lost the House, even though the districts were gerrymandered back in ~2011 for this not to be possible this decade. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 12:48:36 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL. It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election. It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave. A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost? Your question implicitly concedes that "states" are what matter rather than representing the will of the people as expressed through their votes. I do not concede that. If the electoral system does not represent the people's will as they express them through their votes, then the problem lies with the electoral system, not with the people's votes. But in any case, yes, you always have a certain number of tough losses in a wave. For example, Rs losing NV and CO senate races in 2010, and generally performing badly on the West coast despite doing very well elsewhere in the East and Midwest. This is not really characteristically different from that at all. So if 2010 was a wave, than this is as well. And it is not really reasonable to say 2010 was not a wave, I don't think. NV and CO were both Democratic held seats. Wave elections don't usally have one party losing 4+ Senate seats and gaining at most 2 Senate seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Don Vito Corleone on November 07, 2018, 12:48:56 AM Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 12:49:31 AM one thing that should be looked at is African American turnout. This statement is sort of hanging out there without any context and seems odd. I live in an African American precinct; I noted how low the turnout seemed. We saw to African American gubernatorial candidates, one clearly favored, fail. At least in IN, Donnelly did not seem to be running as well in areas that were African American. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 12:49:48 AM Happy we won the house but Gillum losing absolutely shattered me.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pops on November 07, 2018, 12:50:35 AM The real loser tonight was third party candidates. They were repudiated pretty much everywhere, even worse than in 2016. Neal Simon, Gary Johnson, Sam McCann, and Stephanie Miner were the biggest losers.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skunk on November 07, 2018, 12:50:46 AM Choosing to look on the bright sides here. Kendra Horn!!!!!!!
Democrats won in Oklahoma after all, just not where we expected! Horn is easily the biggest upset of the night. Nobody saw it coming, I sure as hell didn't. Especially since Stitt won. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 12:50:51 AM Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close. Tester's hope lies in Gallatin County. No where else is likely to be notably pro-Tester. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 12:51:49 AM It's obviously a really big deal that your party lost the House, even though the districts were gerrymandered back in ~2011 for this not to be possible this decade. Not only lost the house, but lost ground in the three states that put the president over the top. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 12:52:07 AM one thing that should be looked at is African American turnout. This statement is sort of hanging out there without any context and seems odd. I live in an African American precinct; I noted how low the turnout seemed. We saw to African American gubernatorial candidates, one clearly favored, fail. At least in IN, Donnelly did not seem to be running as well in areas that were African American. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 12:53:28 AM It's obviously a really big deal that your party lost the House, even though the districts were gerrymandered back in ~2011 for this not to be possible this decade. Not only lost the house, but lost ground in the three states that put the president over the top. Pennsylvania is a complete catastrophe for Trump. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 12:53:47 AM One thing that I think should be heartening for the Democrats from this result is that this looks like a pretty durable House majority. There are very few seats that they won in very Republican territory (really only Kendra Horn's shock victory in OK-05 comes to mind) that would be vulnerable in 2020 or guaranteed losses in a Republican wave, while the Democrats have a number of opportunities where they came close this year with weaker candidates or where attention was not focused to build on the majority further in 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 12:56:00 AM Tammy Baldwin put up some unexpectedly amazing numbers in the WOW counties...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 12:57:20 AM It's obviously a really big deal that your party lost the House, even though the districts were gerrymandered back in ~2011 for this not to be possible this decade. Not only lost the house, but lost ground in the three states that put the president over the top. Pennsylvania is a complete catastrophe for Trump. Yeah, but no one in the media is going to say anything about it. Democrats improvement in PA and teh midwest for that matter should be a bigger story. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 12:57:21 AM Tammy Baldwin put up some unexpectedly amazing numbers in the WOW counties... Dems will need Ozaukee soon if they want to win Wisconsin. Not like RN but maybe by 2028. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:57:22 AM CNN still has Evers up 49.2-48.9 with 92% in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 12:57:27 AM James only took 8% of the black vote in MI. But he still managed to keep Stabenow within single digits. He is the first Republican in Michigan to come within that range since Spencer Abraham in 2000. Overall, though, this election has been a bizarre one. Democrats picked up the House, as many expected, but they have lost three seats in the Senate and did not do as well in many of the gubernatorial and state level-races. Bright spots for Democrats, I would say, include the victories of Kelly and Davids in Kansas and the upset in Oklahoma-5. But Donnelly, Heitkamp, O'Rourke, McCaskill (presumably), and even Nelson (also presumably) losing, along with the gubernatorial putdowns in Georgia and Florida, are the bright spots for Republicans. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jeffster on November 07, 2018, 12:58:15 AM Democrats really messed up in the Senate this year, and it will make it extremely tough to win it in 2020. Depending on how Arizona, Montana, and Nevada break tonight you could have anywhere from 53-56 Republicans in the Senate for the next two years. The 2020 map isn't so great for Democrats either, and they will most likely lose Alabama so long as the Republicans nominate someone who wasn't dating under age girls. They'd need to pick up Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina in 2020 to have a chance.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 12:58:31 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL. It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election. It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave. A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost? A lot of this was due to expectations not being met. This, like 2016, was supposed to be a great victory. It wasn't, though it was still a victory. Your question implicitly concedes that "states" are what matter rather than representing the will of the people as expressed through their votes. I do not concede that. If the electoral system does not represent the people's will as they express them through their votes, then the problem lies with the electoral system, not with the people's votes. But in any case, yes, you always have a certain number of tough losses in a wave. For example, Rs losing NV and CO senate races in 2010, and generally performing badly on the West coast despite doing very well elsewhere in the East and Midwest. This is not really characteristically different from that at all. So if 2010 was a wave, than this is as well. And it is not really reasonable to say 2010 was not a wave, I don't think. NV and CO were both Democratic held seats. Wave elections don't usally have one party losing 4+ Senate seats and gaining at most 2 Senate seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 12:59:01 AM James only took 8% of the black vote in MI. But he still managed to keep Stabenow within single digits. He is the first Republican to come within that range since Spencer Abraham in 2000. Overall, though, this election has been a bizarre one. Democrats picked up the House, as many expected, but they have lost three seats in the Senate and did not do as well in many of the gubernatorial and state level-races. Bright spots for Democrats, I would say, include the victories of Kelly and Davids in Kansas and the upset in Oklahoma-5. But Donnelly, Heitkamp, O'Rourke, McCaskill (presumably), and even Nelson (also presumably) losing, along with the gubernatorial putdowns in Georgia and Florida, are the bright sports for Republicans. Yeah I agree with all of this besides Davids(not really a bright spot it was expected) and Texas . Texas raises fire alarms for the GOP. AG and LG are within 5 and Beto is within 3. Beto was expected to lose and he probably overperformed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 01:00:52 AM James only took 8% of the black vote in MI. But he still managed to keep Stabenow within single digits. He is the first Republican to come within that range since Spencer Abraham in 2000. Overall, though, this election has been a bizarre one. Democrats picked up the House, as many expected, but they have lost three seats in the Senate and did not do as well in many of the gubernatorial and state level-races. Bright spots for Democrats, I would say, include the victories of Kelly and Davids in Kansas and the upset in Oklahoma-5. But Donnelly, Heitkamp, O'Rourke, McCaskill (presumably), and even Nelson (also presumably) losing, along with the gubernatorial putdowns in Georgia and Florida, are the bright sports for Republicans. Yeah I agree with all of this besides Davids(not really a bright spot it was expected) and Texas . Texas raises fire alarms for the GOP. AG and LG are within 5 and Beto is within 3. Beto was expected to lose and he probably overperformed. I think TX is more about Cruz's quality as a candidate then anything significant long-term. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 01:01:42 AM Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close. Tester's hope lies in Gallatin County. No where else is likely to be notably pro-Tester. Not true. Although they're smaller counties, he will likely win Glacier, Blaine, Park, and possibly Roosevelt Counties. Park is Livingston, so that has at least some chance to get him some votes. But yes, he needs to run up the margin in Gallatin as much as possible. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 07, 2018, 01:02:22 AM James only took 8% of the black vote in MI. But he still managed to keep Stabenow within single digits. He is the first Republican to come within that range since Spencer Abraham in 2000. Overall, though, this election has been a bizarre one. Democrats picked up the House, as many expected, but they have lost three seats in the Senate and did not do as well in many of the gubernatorial and state level-races. Bright spots for Democrats, I would say, include the victories of Kelly and Davids in Kansas and the upset in Oklahoma-5. But Donnelly, Heitkamp, O'Rourke, McCaskill (presumably), and even Nelson (also presumably) losing, along with the gubernatorial putdowns in Georgia and Florida, are the bright sports for Republicans. Yeah I agree with all of this besides Davids(not really a bright spot it was expected) and Texas . Texas raises fire alarms for the GOP. AG and LG are within 5 and Beto is within 3. Beto was expected to lose and he probably overperformed. I think TX is more about Cruz's quality as a candidate then anything significant long-term. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 07, 2018, 01:03:17 AM The real loser tonight was third party candidates. They were repudiated pretty much everywhere, even worse than in 2016. Neal Simon, Gary Johnson, Sam McCann, and Stephanie Miner were the biggest losers. Because voters are smart and vote strategically. Other than very rare flukes, 3rd party candidates will only win if we change to a ranked voting system. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 01:03:19 AM Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close. Tester's hope lies in Gallatin County. No where else is likely to be notably pro-Tester. Not true. Although they're smaller counties, he will likely win Glacier, Blaine, Park, and possibly Roosevelt Counties. Park is Livingston, so that has at least some chance to get him some votes. But yes, he needs to run up the margin in Gallatin as much as possible. None of those counties have that many votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 01:03:29 AM Nevada results coming in
http://www.silverstateelection.com/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 01:05:14 AM UTDH UP by 50 POINTS. CALLING FOR HELLER. Its impossible for weak rosen to win this
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 07, 2018, 01:05:29 AM Democrats really messed up in the Senate this year, and it will make it extremely tough to win it in 2020. Depending on how Arizona, Montana, and Nevada break tonight you could have anywhere from 53-56 Republicans in the Senate for the next two years. The 2020 map isn't so great for Democrats either, and they will most likely lose Alabama so long as the Republicans nominate someone who wasn't dating under age girls. They'd need to pick up Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina in 2020 to have a chance. All they have to do is win the seats they lost in 2014, in what will probably be a much more favorable environment to them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 01:05:31 AM Cam Cavasso getting destroyed. Thought he would do better.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pops on November 07, 2018, 01:07:05 AM The real loser tonight was third party candidates. They were repudiated pretty much everywhere, even worse than in 2016. Neal Simon, Gary Johnson, Sam McCann, and Stephanie Miner were the biggest losers. Because voters are smart and vote strategically. Other than very rare flukes, 3rd party candidates will only win if we change to a ranked voting system. I'm not talking about literally winning, they underperformed polling worse than most third party candidates. Joe Trillo gets a shoutout for this too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 01:07:36 AM Rural counties looking pretty good for Heller.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 01:07:54 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:09:03 AM One thing that I think should be heartening for the Democrats from this result is that this looks like a pretty durable House majority. There are very few seats that they won in very Republican territory (really only Kendra Horn's shock victory in OK-05 comes to mind) that would be vulnerable in 2020 or guaranteed losses in a Republican wave, while the Democrats have a number of opportunities where they came close this year with weaker candidates or where attention was not focused to build on the majority further in 2020. Yeah, this is a good point. And there are a large # of TX Congressional incumbents who are going to be looking very leery at the TX-SEN result when it comes time for the next redistricting - especially if Dems also contest TX in 2020 (which seems all but certain now) and if they do at least reasonably well there. It is not likely that the Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio megalopolises are going to trend R, and that is going to limit future R gerrymanering in TX, which means more Dem House seats there. Williamson county voting for Beto... Tarrant county voting for Beto... Collin County and Denton giving such small R margins... Fort Bend going 10 points for Beto... And there are so many more voters just waiting to be registered and turned out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 07, 2018, 01:09:13 AM I believe also city of LaCrosse and city of Green Bay fully out too which is expected slightly for Evers. Rest remaining is probably Walker. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:09:26 AM James only took 8% of the black vote in MI. But he still managed to keep Stabenow within single digits. He is the first Republican to come within that range since Spencer Abraham in 2000. Overall, though, this election has been a bizarre one. Democrats picked up the House, as many expected, but they have lost three seats in the Senate and did not do as well in many of the gubernatorial and state level-races. Bright spots for Democrats, I would say, include the victories of Kelly and Davids in Kansas and the upset in Oklahoma-5. But Donnelly, Heitkamp, O'Rourke, McCaskill (presumably), and even Nelson (also presumably) losing, along with the gubernatorial putdowns in Georgia and Florida, are the bright sports for Republicans. Yeah I agree with all of this besides Davids(not really a bright spot it was expected) and Texas . Texas raises fire alarms for the GOP. AG and LG are within 5 and Beto is within 3. Beto was expected to lose and he probably overperformed. I think TX is more about Cruz's quality as a candidate then anything significant long-term. The Democrats came within 5 points or less of winning *five* more House seats in Texas, which would have taken them to a *majority* of the Texas House delegation. They didn't manage it, but I wouldn't want to be the one to tell John Carter, Kevin Marchand, Michael McCaul, Will Hurd or Chip Roy -- or, for that matter, Pete Olson, Dan Crenshaw, Roger Williams or Ron Wright, who all won by less than 10 points -- to relax, don't worry, this will all blow over, they're safe long-term, it was just about Cruz. This wasn't just about Cruz. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 07, 2018, 01:10:54 AM Rural counties looking pretty good for Heller. In the end, it's going go to be up to Clark County and Washoe County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 07, 2018, 01:11:42 AM Tester is going down, sadly.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 01:12:05 AM With 54% of the vote in Tester is ahead by 0.5 points. It has been drifting to Rosendale all night.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:12:07 AM Fox projects Scott wins in FL. It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election. It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave. A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost? A lot of this was due to expectations not being met. This, like 2016, was supposed to be a great victory. It wasn't, though it was still a victory. Your question implicitly concedes that "states" are what matter rather than representing the will of the people as expressed through their votes. I do not concede that. If the electoral system does not represent the people's will as they express them through their votes, then the problem lies with the electoral system, not with the people's votes. But in any case, yes, you always have a certain number of tough losses in a wave. For example, Rs losing NV and CO senate races in 2010, and generally performing badly on the West coast despite doing very well elsewhere in the East and Midwest. This is not really characteristically different from that at all. So if 2010 was a wave, than this is as well. And it is not really reasonable to say 2010 was not a wave, I don't think. NV and CO were both Democratic held seats. Wave elections don't usally have one party losing 4+ Senate seats and gaining at most 2 Senate seats. Usually the Senate map is not so unbalanced as it was this year. As for whether seats are D held or R held, that doesn't matter much. That is the idea that incumbency is important, which it should be clear from these results is not nearly as true as it was a decade or two ago. Incumbency is less and less important (though of course it does still make some difference, it is a comparatively minor factor). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 01:12:48 AM James only took 8% of the black vote in MI. But he still managed to keep Stabenow within single digits. He is the first Republican to come within that range since Spencer Abraham in 2000. Overall, though, this election has been a bizarre one. Democrats picked up the House, as many expected, but they have lost three seats in the Senate and did not do as well in many of the gubernatorial and state level-races. Bright spots for Democrats, I would say, include the victories of Kelly and Davids in Kansas and the upset in Oklahoma-5. But Donnelly, Heitkamp, O'Rourke, McCaskill (presumably), and even Nelson (also presumably) losing, along with the gubernatorial putdowns in Georgia and Florida, are the bright sports for Republicans. Yeah I agree with all of this besides Davids(not really a bright spot it was expected) and Texas . Texas raises fire alarms for the GOP. AG and LG are within 5 and Beto is within 3. Beto was expected to lose and he probably overperformed. I think TX is more about Cruz's quality as a candidate then anything significant long-term. The Democrats came within 5 points or less of winning *five* more House seats in Texas, which would have taken them to a *majority* of the Texas House delegation. They didn't manage it, but I wouldn't want to be the one to tell John Carter, Kevin Marchand, Michael McCaul, Will Hurd or Chip Roy -- or, for that matter, Pete Olson, Dan Crenshaw, Roger Williams or Ron Wright, who all won by less than 10 points -- to relax, this will all blow over, they're safe long-term. This wasn't just about Cruz. I definitely agree. While I firmly believed that Cruz would win (and he indeed), this election has shown that in the long term, demographic trends are gradually pushing Texas towards the Democratic Party. Cruz only winning by 4 points is a warning sign, one that both Democrats and Republicans should keep in mind. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 07, 2018, 01:12:50 AM The real loser tonight was third party candidates. They were repudiated pretty much everywhere, even worse than in 2016. Neal Simon, Gary Johnson, Sam McCann, and Stephanie Miner were the biggest losers. Because voters are smart and vote strategically. Other than very rare flukes, 3rd party candidates will only win if we change to a ranked voting system. I'm not talking about literally winning, they underperformed polling worse than most third party candidates. Joe Trillo gets a shoutout for this too. I guess I don't see much difference between getting 5% and 0.5% or whatever the discrepancy was. In our system the only relevance of their numbers is the effect they have on the main race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 07, 2018, 01:13:06 AM Tester is going down, sadly. Devastating news. I can't call this night anything but a loss with a result like this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 01:13:09 AM Democrats really messed up in the Senate this year, and it will make it extremely tough to win it in 2020. Depending on how Arizona, Montana, and Nevada break tonight you could have anywhere from 53-56 Republicans in the Senate for the next two years. The 2020 map isn't so great for Democrats either, and they will most likely lose Alabama so long as the Republicans nominate someone who wasn't dating under age girls. They'd need to pick up Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina in 2020 to have a chance. All they have to do is win the seats they lost in 2014, in what will probably be a much more favorable environment to them. lol Im assuming 54-46 senate this night and thats probably generous if I had to guess. Lets assume the dem wins the presidency in 2020 so they need 4 gains Seat Ratings- Alabama- Safe R- 0 chance of victory anyone not named Roy Moore especially after 2018 realiginment. colorado- Lean D probably closer to Likely D than Lean but Colorado also has R trending parts of the state. So we can assume thats a trade. AZ- Tossup/ Tilt D and Lean R if Ducey runs. AZ GOP bench isn't the best as they will hold 0/3 of moderate districts. The rest left is Texas- Likely R. I absolutely can not remove a 3 percent loss and say its Safe R in a d trending state with favorable demographic changes for Democrats. NC- Tilt R- NC is a pretty red state with parts trending both ways and dems are struggling there failing to pick up a house seat. Montana- Likely R and probably closer to Safe and this is assuming Bullock Runs. Iowa - Lean R. It looks like Iowa has atleast partially swung back around to democrats so I can assume its possible democrats could win this Georgia- Likely R and maybe approaching Lean with the demographic changes. dems absolutely should not nominate a black candidate again. Maine- No idea actually. I think Golden wins tonight so thats not a bad sign and being one of the few pick ups in a republican trending trump double digit district. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 01:13:27 AM Tester is going down, sadly. NYT has him a 86% chance of winning. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 01:14:05 AM Yeah, I wouldn't write Tester's obituary yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 01:14:08 AM Tester is going down, sadly. Devastating news. I can't call this night anything but a loss with a result like this. No one has called it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 01:14:17 AM I thought Cavasso could get near 40% lol.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 01:14:47 AM Tester is going down, sadly. Devastating news. I can't call this night anything but a loss with a result like this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 01:14:53 AM Bullock was down at this point in 2016 and won by 4 in the end. Tester should be fine.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:14:59 AM Democrats really messed up in the Senate this year, and it will make it extremely tough to win it in 2020. Depending on how Arizona, Montana, and Nevada break tonight you could have anywhere from 53-56 Republicans in the Senate for the next two years. The 2020 map isn't so great for Democrats either, and they will most likely lose Alabama so long as the Republicans nominate someone who wasn't dating under age girls. They'd need to pick up Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina in 2020 to have a chance. Dems did not mess up on the Senate. The Senate's electoral system messed up on the American people. The Dems are going to easily win the Senate popular vote by a very large margin (probably more than the House), even without California. Dems appear to be on course to win the popular vote by about 10% (according to what I am hearing, but I can't find actual numbers yet, but we will have them soon enough). A system in which people in Wyoming count 69 times more than people in California is fundamentally flawed and must be either abolished or fundamentally changed in some of various possible ways to make that no longer be the case. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 01:15:46 AM Tester is going down, sadly. NYT has him a 86% chance of winning. Wait so even if he loses is it that flat top haircut that won him the election? I mean mcaskill and Donnely got half Blanched. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 07, 2018, 01:16:06 AM Democrats really messed up in the Senate this year, and it will make it extremely tough to win it in 2020. Depending on how Arizona, Montana, and Nevada break tonight you could have anywhere from 53-56 Republicans in the Senate for the next two years. The 2020 map isn't so great for Democrats either, and they will most likely lose Alabama so long as the Republicans nominate someone who wasn't dating under age girls. They'd need to pick up Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina in 2020 to have a chance. All they have to do is win the seats they lost in 2014, in what will probably be a much more favorable environment to them. lol I don't know what's supposed to be funny about it. Anything can happen in 2 years and they're all seats they've held before recently. Alabama is the only one that's a clear cut anomaly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:17:31 AM I think TX is more about Cruz's quality as a candidate then anything significant long-term. Tell that to Pete Sessions, John Culberson, about 5-10 other Republican representatives who had closer calls than they ever thought they would have in their gerrymandered safe seats, and a very large number of state legislative and local elected R officials who lost (or who had much closer races than they ever expected, and are aware that Texas is not getting any whiter). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 07, 2018, 01:18:19 AM Not sure how I feel about Nevada just giving us 100% of the county's results in one big shot. I prefer to slowly sip of my results as they come in, like a cocktail.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 07, 2018, 01:19:53 AM Not sure how I feel about Nevada just giving us 100% of the county's results in one big shot. I prefer to slowly sip of my results as they slowly come in, like a cocktail. It's because in Nevada they don't release any results if there are still people in line to vote. They can vote if they're in line at polls close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 01:20:04 AM I think TX is more about Cruz's quality as a candidate then anything significant long-term. Tell that to Pete Sessions, John Culberson, about 5-10 other Republican representatives who had closer calls than they ever thought they would have in their gerrymandered safe seats, and a very large number of state legislative and local elected R officials who lost (or who had much closer races than they ever expected, and are aware that Texas is not getting any whiter). Yeah I don't know why people didn't realize what Beto did for Texas democrats. Unlike anyone else he actually had major coattail effects on the rest of Texas democrats besides governor and even then I think he helped quite a bit by bringing out unlikely voters who voted straight ticket D(the Abbot Beto voters are only like 8 percent rather than 12 or 13) Texas is absolutely a state Democrats will need in the near future. CruzWILLWin was correct in his prediction but he also understands that a democrat will win Texas soon. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 07, 2018, 01:20:13 AM Tester is going down, sadly. NYT has him a 86% chance of winning. Weird, I was just looking at some key counties comparing 2012 v 2016. He seems to be under performing and MT has a early Democratic counting bias. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:21:32 AM The Democrats came within 5 points or less of winning *five* more House seats in Texas, which would have taken them to a *majority* of the Texas House delegation. They didn't manage it, but I wouldn't want to be the one to tell John Carter, Kevin Marchand, Michael McCaul, Will Hurd or Chip Roy -- or, for that matter, Pete Olson, Dan Crenshaw, Roger Williams or Ron Wright, who all won by less than 10 points -- to relax, don't worry, this will all blow over, they're safe long-term, it was just about Cruz. This wasn't just about Cruz. And moreover, Cruz will be up for re-election in 2024. That means 6 more years of demographic change. 6 more years to register more voters. 6 more years for old whites to die, and for more moderates and liberals to move to TX from out of state. And in 2024, there will be Presidential turnout. Even though obviously turnout was great in TX, it was still a midterm. Imagine how many new people would have voted if the President were on the ballot this year, and not just Beto and Cruz? Should be pretty easily another few million. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:22:51 AM Tester is going down, sadly. Devastating news. I can't call this night anything but a loss with a result like this. It is indeed a loss for American democracy and the legitimacy thereof. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 07, 2018, 01:24:00 AM 538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 01:25:56 AM @58% in Rosendale up by over a point.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:26:13 AM Carson City dropped in Nevada. Heller wins it 54-41, which is a slight underperformance on margin compared to Trump-Clinton (Trump won it 52-38). Nothing to indicate anything but a Rosen victory thus far.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:26:34 AM Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.
Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough. But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 01:27:59 AM Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.
If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 01:28:06 AM A Heller victory would be the perfect way to cap off a weird election.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 01:28:28 AM Tester up to 89% chance on NYT. If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map. I'd call that a miracle honestly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Reaganfan on November 07, 2018, 01:28:40 AM A Heller victory would be the perfect way to cap off a weird election. Why do you say it's "weird"? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 01:28:48 AM 538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning Are they going solely based on the votes counted? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 01:29:11 AM Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting. Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough. But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance. Establishment Democrats would rather the progressives lose so that they can keep using electability as the reason to go with their useless moderate heroes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 07, 2018, 01:29:58 AM Tester up to 89% chance on NYT. If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map. If it weren’t for FL I’d agree. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Very Legal & Very Cool on November 07, 2018, 01:30:33 AM So far the more conservative non-republicans are winning in California, we will see if that holds in the morning. Tuck, Poizner and Feinstein look to come out ahead.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Third Party on November 07, 2018, 01:30:54 AM Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting. Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough. But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance. Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 01:30:55 AM Tester up to 89% chance on NYT. If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map. I'd call that a miracle honestly. I don't really think it would be particularly surprising, if NYT's numbers are believable. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:31:08 AM Other rural counties in Nevada, Heller is also slightly underperforming Trump. He's winning Eureka 84-10, Trump won it 85-9; Lander 76-17, exact same as 2016; Nye, 65-28, Trump won it 68-26; Esmeralda 75-14, Trump won it 78-15; Storey 63-31, Trump won it 63-29. All points to a 3-4 point Rosen win. Nye is especially good for Rosen because most of the population is exurban Las Vegas so a swing to her relative to Clinton indicates a similar result in Clark.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on November 07, 2018, 01:31:35 AM 538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning Are they going solely based on the votes counted? Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56% Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 07, 2018, 01:31:47 AM Tester up to 89% chance on NYT. If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map. 538 is Giving Heller a 95% chance for some reason Have no idea why Nate Silver hasnt explained that Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 01:32:13 AM Rosen up 10 in Washoe EV. Looks very good for her.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 01:32:45 AM Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting. Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough. But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance. Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight. Imagine thinking Democrats are underperforming in this election. God, the left sucks in the country. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:33:14 AM Carson City dropped in Nevada. Heller wins it 54-41, which is a slight underperformance on margin compared to Trump-Clinton (Trump won it 52-38). Nothing to indicate anything but a Rosen victory thus far. Yeah, given how well Dems have been doing in urban and suburban areas, it would be pretty shocking for anything other than Rosen winning. Likewise I think Sinema will probably end up winning AZ in the end (will take a week or 2), but it will of course be close, and it is quite possible it could still go to McSally. Basically anything urban/suburban = death zone for Rs. Anything rural = death zone for Ds. There are a handful of exceptions here and there, but they will be Blanched away over the next couple of cycles. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:33:18 AM One favorable county result for Heller: 66-33 in Douglas, up from 62-30 for Trump. But that is only a 1-point improvement on Trump's margin when he's eroding around 2 points on the margins elsewhere. And of course Trump lost by 2 points so he needs more than 1 point of gains relative to Trump to win.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 07, 2018, 01:33:36 AM California update:
1. DeLeon is doing ridiculously well. We'll see what happens as the remaining 70% comes in. 2. Jeff Denham is probably going to lose. Stanislaus County, which is supporting him, is almost completely done counting, whereas bluer San Joaquin is only just coming in. 3. Katie Hill vs Steve Knight is still a complete tossup. 4. Young Kim looks good, but it'll depend on what bits of Orange County are still outstanding. 5. Mimi Waters also look good, but it could absolutely go either way. 6. Levin and Rouda both look on track to win. 7. Duncan Hunter (blech) also looks safe. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 01:34:23 AM RIP Heller
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 01:34:41 AM Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting. Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough. But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance. Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight. Imagine thinking Democrats are underperforming in this election. God, the left sucks in the country. They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 07, 2018, 01:34:53 AM RIP...... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 01:35:20 AM Yeah, people here feeling very optimistic after that Washoe number.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 01:35:22 AM Tester up to 89% chance on NYT. If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map. I'd call that a miracle honestly. I don't really think it would be particularly surprising, if NYT's numbers are believable. Well I meant it in the sense that there would only be a D-2 loss in the Senate with 4 Democrat Incumbents going down. It would also indicate an interesting East/West spilt even when you include Beto's significant over-performance in Texas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:35:27 AM Storey: 63-31 Heller, down from 63-29 Trump
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 01:35:56 AM Randy Bryce was sure a real dud.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 01:36:25 AM NYT thinks that Tester wins the outstanding vote by 11.8 points. That one's probably a hold.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:37:05 AM Tester up to 89% chance on NYT. If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map. 538 is Giving Heller a 95% chance for some reason Have no idea why Nate Silver hasnt explained that I am pretty sure the 538 model is not based on county level results at all. It just is based on the current # of votes counted, regardless of geography. There is no sub-district or sub-state model. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 07, 2018, 01:37:09 AM Whats wrong with 538 Nevada prediction
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 01:37:17 AM 538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning Are they going solely based on the votes counted? Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56% I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 07, 2018, 01:37:31 AM Randy Bryce was sure a real dud. Well yeah, guy was a deadbeat. Only paid off child support after starting his campaign after many years. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 07, 2018, 01:37:57 AM Tester up to 89% chance on NYT. If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map. 538 is Giving Heller a 95% chance for some reason Have no idea why Nate Silver hasnt explained that I am pretty sure the 538 model is not based on county level results at all. It just is based on the current # of votes counted, regardless of geography. There is no sub-district or sub-state model. Wait what But then how does that explain when Beto was leading Cruz chances were over 90% Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 07, 2018, 01:38:05 AM OMG. At 98% in, Evers is UP narrowly again. And most of the outstanding precincts are in La Crosse County. 47,000 votes from city of Milwaukee and Tosa as well. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 01:38:32 AM Arizona seems like it's taking forever to come in again
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 01:38:32 AM 538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning Are they going solely based on the votes counted? Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56% I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%. I'm assuming that's why Nelson hasn't conceded yet, that there's some legit hope still out there? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 01:38:55 AM So it looks like MT and NV will go D...
Hoping for AZ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 01:39:09 AM @63 Rosendale is up by 58 votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:39:18 AM California update: 1. DeLeon is doing ridiculously well. We'll see what happens as the remaining 70% comes in. 2. Jeff Denham is probably going to lose. Stanislaus County, which is supporting him, is almost completely done counting, whereas bluer San Joaquin is only just coming in. 3. Katie Hill vs Steve Knight is still a complete tossup. 4. Young Kim looks good, but it'll depend on what bits of Orange County are still outstanding. 5. Mimi Waters also look good, but it could absolutely go either way. 6. Levin and Rouda both look on track to win. 7. Duncan Hunter (blech) also looks safe. Anything in CA that is close now is most likely to go Dem, if past California results are anything at all to go by. In the past, Dems always gain over the next couple of days after the election. The Dem votes by mail that come in at the end always get counted last. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 01:40:16 AM NYT: Nevada just jumped to 57% Rosen, and Arizona just jumped to "Tossup Simena," which I guess means 50%
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:42:11 AM Yeah, people here feeling very optimistic after that Washoe number. If by "feeling optimistic" you mean realizing that the race is over and can be called, yeah. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:42:30 AM OMG. At 98% in, Evers is UP narrowly again. And most of the outstanding precincts are in La Crosse County. Yup. The city of Green Bay came in for Evers. Evers has this, I think. Most outstanding votes are in La Crosse, Portage and Calumet with a tiny smattering elsewhere. Calumet is a Walker county but La Crosse and Portage are both Evers counties, and I think even Calumet alone couldn't net Walker 3,500 votes. Unclear if the rumored missing 50,000 Milwaukee County ballots got counted, but obviously if not they could cushion Evers's win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 07, 2018, 01:43:57 AM OMG. At 98% in, Evers is UP narrowly again. And most of the outstanding precincts are in La Crosse County. Yup. The city of Green Bay came in for Evers. Evers has this, I think. Most outstanding votes are in La Crosse, Portage and Calumet with a tiny smattering elsewhere. Calumet is a Walker county but La Crosse and Portage are both Evers counties, and I think even Calumet alone couldn't net Walker 3,500 votes. Unclear if the rumored missing 50,000 Milwaukee County ballots got counted, but obviously if not they could cushion Evers's win. Not a rumor and not counted yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 01:44:04 AM 538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning Are they going solely based on the votes counted? Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56% I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%. I'm assuming that's why Nelson hasn't conceded yet, that there's some legit hope still out there? Unless everyone who called it forgot about how dumb they looked 18 years ago, it's over. And BTW, on election night 2000, I was wondering why they called it for Bush. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jersey Jimmy on November 07, 2018, 01:44:07 AM will you people just call SC-01 for Joe already? accept your precious Trumpian golden girl lost and move on.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 01:44:16 AM Nevada R+6 with Vegas still out--I dare say the Dems have this
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:45:02 AM Yeah, people here feeling very optimistic after that Washoe number. If by "feeling optimistic" you mean realizing that the race is over and can be called, yeah. Yeah, Rosen wins Washoe 53-44. That's the race. Don't even need to see Clark, no way Heller overperforms enough there to make up for it considering Washoe only went to Clinton 46-45 and Heller is underperforming Trump in the rural counties, too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 01:45:30 AM There has to be a tabulation error in Apache County or something. No way McSally should even be close there. Only 45% of the vote is in there. I'd guess what is left is fairly Dem. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 01:45:47 AM Well in the end Beto did win Tarrant
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:46:53 AM There has to be a tabulation error in Apache County or something. No way McSally should even be close there. Apache County (and Navajo County, too) is crazy polarized between extremely Republican I think mainly Mormon areas in the south and extremely Democratic Native American reservation areas in the north. Totally plausible for partial results to show McSally ahead if the reservations are slow to count. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 01:47:03 AM Well in the end Beto did win Tarrant I said earlier in the night this might happen. If this doesn't start ringing fire bells I don't know what will. Cruz literally just said Tarrant is the biggest reddest county in the biggest reddest state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 01:48:27 AM Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting. Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough. But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance. Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight. Imagine thinking Democrats are underperforming in this election. God, the left sucks in the country. They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown. It is clear that the Atlas community definitely overhyped Democratic chances in many of these races. Democrats themselves overhyped their chances. Yes, there are many warning signs for Republicans (such as in Texas), but the "blue wave" seems to be manifesting as a "blue ripple". Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 07, 2018, 01:48:48 AM So it looks like SC-01 is going Dem. Would Mark Sanford have won?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:49:00 AM OMG. At 98% in, Evers is UP narrowly again. And most of the outstanding precincts are in La Crosse County. There were apparently a bunch of uncounted ballots in Milwaukee (despite saying it was all in), don't know if those are included in the count you are referencing, but they may be, or maybe not. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 01:50:16 AM So it looks like SC-01 is going Dem. Would Mark Sanford have won? I'd say yes, then again I'd never have guessed this race would have been close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:50:52 AM Wait what But then how does that explain when Beto was leading Cruz chances were over 90% It could be an issue with the 3 different results systems that are counting votes separately (or one updating more quickly than the other). The 538 model may have been looking at one, while you were looking at the other. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 01:51:06 AM So it looks like SC-01 is going Dem. Would Mark Sanford have won? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:51:30 AM Arizona seems like it's taking forever to come in again It will take more than another week. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 07, 2018, 01:52:04 AM Evers is back up after briefly dipping below Walker; he's ahead by a little over 1,000 votes. Between 20-25 precincts combined left in La Crosse and Portage, plus a little under 10 in Calumet (though the Republican vote here will likely be drowned out by the Dem margins in the other counties). And then there's the mysterious Milwaukee ballots. It's a nail-biter. Don’t know how it’s a mystery. About 45,000 from the city and 7,800 from Tosa. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 01:52:50 AM Quote They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown. Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats. Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on November 07, 2018, 01:53:42 AM I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight. Just kind of so-so?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: AtorBoltox on November 07, 2018, 01:54:08 AM I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight. Just kind of so-so? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:54:24 AM Evers now up close to 7,000 votes after a dump from La Crosse (though there's some left there still). Hard to see how Walker makes that up barring an error somewhere. (Though I do recall one year not too long ago Waukesha County came out really late, hours after they said they were done, and dumped a ton of missing votes that switched some races to the Rs, so it's still possible.)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 07, 2018, 01:54:26 AM Evers gained ~31,000 in Milwaukee County Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jersey Jimmy on November 07, 2018, 01:54:28 AM he (probably) did it.
the madman actually (probably) did it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 01:55:21 AM Quote but the "blue wave" seems to be manifesting as a "blue ripple". It is funny how R's are spinning this. You guys lost the house by 9 points in a economy with less 4% unemployment and a President with a 40-44 approval rating with those conditions. You guys are lucky that this is the worst senate map for Democrats in recent memory. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: AtorBoltox on November 07, 2018, 01:55:34 AM Evers now up close to 7,000 votes after a dump from La Crosse (though there's some left there still). Hard to see how Walker makes that up barring an error somewhere. (Though I do recall one year not too long ago Waukesha County came out really late, hours after they said they were done, and dumped a ton of missing votes that switched some races to the Rs, so it's still possible.) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on November 07, 2018, 01:55:54 AM I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight. Just kind of so-so? But our Senate majority is bigger to confirm justices who will overturn Roe. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:56:51 AM Evers now up close to 7,000 votes after a dump from La Crosse (though there's some left there still). Hard to see how Walker makes that up barring an error somewhere. (Though I do recall one year not too long ago Waukesha County came out really late, hours after they said they were done, and dumped a ton of missing votes that switched some races to the Rs, so it's still possible.) You act like American elections aren't run with the administrative competence of a third-world country already. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 01:58:27 AM Well in the end Beto did win Tarrant If you chopped off the Texas panhandle and gave it to Oklahoma and/or a chunk of East TX and gave it to Arkansas, Beto would have won. It was only the rural counties of TX that saved Cruz. The rural counties, many of which are losing population overall, and most of the rest of which are losing white population. That is old Texas. New Texas is the megacities, and New Texas is strongly Dem trending. The Republican Party of Texas is now the Party of Old Texas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 07, 2018, 01:58:35 AM It is clear that the Atlas community definitely overhyped Democratic chances in many of these races. Democrats themselves overhyped their chances. Yes, there are many warning signs for Republicans (such as in Texas), but the "blue wave" seems to be manifesting as a "blue ripple". I just figured the polls would be about right. Looks like they were in terms of overall House performance. But the Dems were over-favored by the polls in the red state senate races. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 01:58:47 AM Things will be better for FL with Amendment 4, I have no doubt both Gillum/Nelson would've won if felons could've voted. What a sad state for Democrats. "If only we get criminals to the polls..." Dude, you never post on this board. You're showing up just to brag. Go away. You're pathetic and you have no business here. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 01:59:34 AM Quote They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown. Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats. Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do. They weren't favored for the Senate overall, but there's no reason Arizona should be this close, no reason Florida should've been lost, and no reason the margins in Indiana or Missouri should've been what they were, or the seat retentions in the upper Midwest. And we're looking at the increasing possibility of Tester losing as well. And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 01:59:38 AM Democrats sweep Colorado row offices. Republicans sweep Ohio row offices. That state is gone. Democrats look likely to narrowlysweep Wisconsin offices. Most people did predict an evers +5 to 8 victory around but it came out really close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 01:59:56 AM Clark results coming in...
http://www.silverstateelection.com/USSenate/ (http://www.silverstateelection.com/USSenate/) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 07, 2018, 02:00:17 AM I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight. Just kind of so-so? But our Senate majority is bigger to confirm justices who will overturn Roe. You need a Dem to leave the court, or maybe Roberts, in the next 2 years for that to happen. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 07, 2018, 02:00:21 AM The GOP bloodbath in Colorado was beautiful. Besides Coffman losing and the Polis winning Governor, the Republican incumbents State Treasurer and Sec of State lost and R held Attorney General went Dem.
GOP bench wiped out tonight. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:00:46 AM Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close. Tester's hope lies in Gallatin County. No where else is likely to be notably pro-Tester. Not true. Although they're smaller counties, he will likely win Glacier, Blaine, Park, and possibly Roosevelt Counties. Park is Livingston, so that has at least some chance to get him some votes. But yes, he needs to run up the margin in Gallatin as much as possible. None of those counties have that many votes. It's Montana. No counties have very many votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SuperCow on November 07, 2018, 02:00:53 AM Well, this election went pretty well how I expected in the Senate. I made a couple of predictions in the house, but since I don’t follow the races at that level, I really didn’t have any idea about them or the Governor’s races, except my own in Maryland.
The house is lost, but I was most concerned to get a buffer for the Senate to guard against the 2020 election. Maybe Ginsburg will hold out until she’s 91 if Trump is re-elected, but even she may give up before then, and in any event, the lower courts should be much improved over the Obama years. And since the Governor’s office controls redistributing in Maryland we.can finally fix the horrible districts here in 2020, so overall I am happy with this election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:01:49 AM The GOP bloodbath in Colorado was beautiful. Besides Coffman losing and the Polis winning Governor, the Republican incumbents State Treasurer and Sec of State lost and R held Attorney General went Dem. GOP bench wiped out tonight. How's the Colorado Senate looking? I know the Republicans had a 38-36 majority going into tonight. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CookieDamage on November 07, 2018, 02:01:51 AM Heitkamp losing by less than Donnelly is.... something. Donnelly got blanched.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 02:02:41 AM NH Dems won the State House easily.
Also won 3 of 5 executive council districts, with a 4th still pretty much neck and neck with 3 precincts left. Looks like the State Senate will either be Dem majority or split 12-12 at the worst. This on top of winning both congressional districts means NH Dems had a really good night! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 07, 2018, 02:02:44 AM Heller is getting blanched.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 02:02:57 AM Heitkamp losing by less than Donnelly is.... something. Donnelly got blanched. It should have been an alarm bell that Donnely raised so little money. I was still expecting him to win but the fact he only raised 4 million in the 3rd quarter was a bit scary. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 02:03:11 AM Quote They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown. Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats. Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do. They weren't favored for the Senate overall, but there's no reason Arizona should be this close, no reason Florida should've been lost, and no reason the margins in Indiana or Missouri should've been what they were, or the seat retentions in the upper Midwest. And we're looking at the increasing possibility of Tester losing as well. And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage. Arizona has always been close and FL is FL. Them losing in MO and IN by that margin when Trump won those states by double digits is no surprise. Like I said, it doesn't matter how well Dems did today. You already had your narrative set. I mean you were saying how the Dems blew it in the house earlier in the thread. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:03:21 AM Clark results coming in... http://www.silverstateelection.com/USSenate/ (http://www.silverstateelection.com/USSenate/) 54-42 Rosen in Clark. Overperforming Clinton's 52-42 margin by 2 points. Rosen wins. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cape Verde on November 07, 2018, 02:03:27 AM After all, North Dakota polls were correct. Heitkamp lost by 10. Indiana and Missouri polls highly underestimated Republican vote.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Very Legal & Very Cool on November 07, 2018, 02:03:45 AM I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight. Just kind of so-so? But our Senate majority is bigger to confirm justices who will overturn Roe. You need a Dem to leave the court, or maybe Roberts, in the next 2 years for that to happen. Roberts won't leave under Trump Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 02:04:13 AM Well in the end Beto did win Tarrant I said earlier in the night this might happen. If this doesn't start ringing fire bells I don't know what will. Cruz literally just said Tarrant is the biggest reddest county in the biggest reddest state. Yeah, Tarrant is huge. Dems are going to start winning county-wide races in counties like Tarrant, Williamson, etc over the next decade or so, which is important because it means that Dems are going to be in charge of administering elections in those huge counties in the future. Which in turn makes it easier for Dems to win statewide, because they will do things to make it easier for Dem-leaning voters to vote, rather than suppressing the vote. Likewise in Harris/Dallas/etc (Harris still had an R county clerk - it is not going to be electing more R county clerks very often in the future, I don't think). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 02:05:28 AM Well in the end Beto did win Tarrant I said earlier in the night this might happen. If this doesn't start ringing fire bells I don't know what will. Cruz literally just said Tarrant is the biggest reddest county in the biggest reddest state. Yeah, Tarrant is huge. Dems are going to start winning county-wide races in counties like Tarrant, Williamson, etc over the next decade or so, which is important because it means that Dems are going to be in charge of administering elections in those huge counties in the future. Which in turn makes it easier for Dems to win statewide, because they will do things to make it easier for Dem-leaning voters to vote, rather than suppressing the vote. Likewise in Harris/Dallas/etc (Harris still had an R county clerk - it is not going to be electing more R county clerks very often in the future, I don't think). What were the countywide sweeps in Dallas/harris this year. I saw some GOP flyers scaring voters to the polls on twitter so I am guessing they were a bit worried. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 02:05:55 AM Clark results coming in... http://www.silverstateelection.com/USSenate/ (http://www.silverstateelection.com/USSenate/) 54-42 Rosen. Overperforming Clinton's 52-42 margin by 2 points. Rosen wins. Yeah, there's no come back for that. Rosen wins. Sisolak too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 02:06:18 AM I think safe to say Cunnigham has won SC-01 last remaining precincts are majority black and wealth Edisto Beach cant carry Arrington over the edge. LOL Democrats lost GA6, GA7, NC9, NC2, NC13, but they win SC1.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jersey Jimmy on November 07, 2018, 02:06:35 AM Looks like Joe Cunningham in SC has this. THE MADMAN ACTUALLY DID IT Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:06:48 AM Looks like Joe Cunningham in SC has this. THE MADMAN ACTUALLY DID IT Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 07, 2018, 02:07:11 AM Clark results coming in... http://www.silverstateelection.com/USSenate/ (http://www.silverstateelection.com/USSenate/) 54-42 Rosen. Overperforming Clinton's 52-42 margin by 2 points. Rosen wins. Yeah, there's no come back for that. Rosen wins. Sisolak too. All statewide Dems up! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 02:07:16 AM The GOP bloodbath in Colorado was beautiful. Besides Coffman losing and the Polis winning Governor, the Republican incumbents State Treasurer and Sec of State lost and R held Attorney General went Dem. GOP bench wiped out tonight. I predicted going into Election Day that Democrats would sweep all of the statewide offices. My prediction was correct. I voted for Polis, Young, and Weiser, as I have made clear, so I did, in a way, help to make it happen. However, I also voted for Williams, who has, unfortunately and predictably, lost. Tipton did survive by ~9 points. Lamborn, however, was held under the 60% mark for the first time since 2006, and Rose-Spaulding did manage to do 4% better than Misty Plowright did in 2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:07:27 AM Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election.
Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: emailking on November 07, 2018, 02:08:55 AM I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight. Just kind of so-so? But our Senate majority is bigger to confirm justices who will overturn Roe. You need a Dem to leave the court, or maybe Roberts, in the next 2 years for that to happen. Roberts won't leave under Trump I meant if he died. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 02:09:19 AM Democrats won SC-01.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SuperCow on November 07, 2018, 02:09:25 AM I think this was the first speech I ever heard from Nancy Pelosi that didn’t make me want to take a power drill to the side of my head.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 02:09:43 AM Montana is going to be really close, but I think Rosendale might pull it out.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 02:09:46 AM It is clear that the Atlas community definitely overhyped Democratic chances in many of these races. Democrats themselves overhyped their chances. Yes, there are many warning signs for Republicans (such as in Texas), but the "blue wave" seems to be manifesting as a "blue ripple". I just figured the polls would be about right. Looks like they were in terms of overall House performance. But the Dems were over-favored by the polls in the red state senate races. The polls were right, and the polls were wrong. The best way to think about polls in general is that they are a cloud that roughly measures results, but has systemic and unpredictable biases. That is basically what happened here - there was a lot right in the polls (they were clearly much better than random chance), and some things wrong too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:10:12 AM Heitkamp losing by less than Donnelly is.... something. Donnelly got blanched. I think the more accurate term is he got Bayhed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 02:10:13 AM Joe Cunningham beat that lady that got into a wreck?! Woah, upset!!!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:11:11 AM Arizona is making me nervous, but Sinema has more favorable turf out. Yep, all that is left is 45% out in Apache, 67% out in Pinal (56% for Trump in 2016), and 87% out in Maricopa (which is a lot of votes, by far the largest county in the state). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 02:11:19 AM Quote They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown. Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats. Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do. They weren't favored for the Senate overall, but there's no reason Arizona should be this close, no reason Florida should've been lost, and no reason the margins in Indiana or Missouri should've been what they were, or the seat retentions in the upper Midwest. And we're looking at the increasing possibility of Tester losing as well. And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage. Arizona has always been close and FL is FL. Them losing in MO and IN by that margin when Trump won those states by double digits is no surprise. Like I said, it doesn't matter how well Dems did today. You already had your narrative set. I mean you were saying how the Dems blew it in the house earlier in the thread. That was mostly to get the meltdown out of the way, they did do better in the House than I expected (but worse than pretty much everyone else here expected, but that's on Atlas more than anything) My point was that the people saying they're underperforming in the Senate, relative to the polls, are correct, and that it's a bigger deal because the Senate is more important because of the judiciary--laws in Congress can be overturned later, judicial appointments can't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 02:11:28 AM Joe Cunningham beat that lady that got into a wreck?! Woah, upset!!!!!! Stay classy bagel Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CookieDamage on November 07, 2018, 02:12:05 AM I am satisfied that Joe M*nchin won, now Bagel has nothing to be so sure about.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 02:12:15 AM Thank the Gods that it looks like Walker is going to lose. So basically, other than OH and FL, Dems won all the Governorships that we wanted to win for redistricting. Not having Iowa is not nice for the people of Iowa, but is irrelevant to redistricting.
And in the case of OH and FL, there is at least (hopefully) some sort of redistricting reform to somewhat limit the damage that the GOP can do. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:12:48 AM I don't understand how CNN is calculating the percent in in the various Montana counties. There's no way Missoula County is 100% in with just 22,000 votes, e.g. It had 61,000 votes in 2016.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:13:23 AM Thank the Gods that it looks like Walker is going to lose. So basically, other than OH and FL, Dems won all the Governorships that we wanted to win for redistricting. Not having Iowa is not nice for the people of Iowa, but is irrelevant to redistricting. And in the case of OH and FL, there is at least (hopefully) some sort of redistricting reform to somewhat limit the damage that the GOP can do. It'll be tough in Florida since I believe they have that 60% threshold for any Constitutional Amendment, and I suspect anything of this magnitude will be deemed by the courts as requiring a constitutional amendment. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 02:13:42 AM CNN is horribly behind it looks like--nothing in eastern Nevada is showing up yet and somebody posted an update after Clark County came in from elsewhere.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 07, 2018, 02:13:42 AM Scott Walker losing is the scalp of the night for sure
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 02:13:43 AM Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election. Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead. One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 07, 2018, 02:13:57 AM Honestly going back to D-NV after seeing the NV results
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 02:14:33 AM I'm biased since its my parents hometown. But why isn't anyone calling SC-01 that is a huge upset? But no CNN wants to find places where Democrats are losing.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 02:14:55 AM Joe Cunningham beat that lady that got into a wreck?! Woah, upset!!!!!! Stay classy bagel She deserved to lose, glad she lived, but happy she lost, Sanford would have won lmao, the GOP primary people are so dumb sometimes, like Jenkins would have won LMAO. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 02:14:57 AM 538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning Are they going solely based on the votes counted? Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56% I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%. 538 now has Rosen at 54% while the NY Times went to >95%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 02:15:20 AM Quote They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown. Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats. Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do. They weren't favored for the Senate overall, but there's no reason Arizona should be this close, no reason Florida should've been lost, and no reason the margins in Indiana or Missouri should've been what they were, or the seat retentions in the upper Midwest. And we're looking at the increasing possibility of Tester losing as well. And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage. Arizona is very slow at counting, you can't really say how close it is yet. McSally was a good candiate - Sinema was not fortunate to be running against Arpaio or Ward. It would have been nice for Sinema to be clearly winning, but for AZ, a state which has voted R for basically everything for basically forever, and where a significant part of the Dem base includes low turnout demographics such as Youngs and Hispanics, this is a great result especially in a midterm year, and suggests Dems can do well in AZ in the future (including competing there in 2020). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 02:15:39 AM Thank the Gods that it looks like Walker is going to lose. So basically, other than OH and FL, Dems won all the Governorships that we wanted to win for redistricting. Not having Iowa is not nice for the people of Iowa, but is irrelevant to redistricting. And in the case of OH and FL, there is at least (hopefully) some sort of redistricting reform to somewhat limit the damage that the GOP can do. IA Gov could be very relevant to the Senate since Grassley is 85. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 07, 2018, 02:16:19 AM Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election. Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead. One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs. Spot on, but TX is also trending Democratic and O'Rourke nearly pulled it off. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 02:16:32 AM MSNBC just had Vaughn Hilliard on from AZ. He says a million votes will be counted over the next 24 hours and then another 300k will be counted Thursday. It's nuts we won't know until Thursday.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 07, 2018, 02:16:38 AM Can McBath ask for a recount?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:16:51 AM Tester down by 1,600 votes with 72% in according to CNN. It's tightening late just like with Bullock in 2016...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:16:53 AM Does anyone know if Charlie Baker won Boston? I just looked and saw he won Suffolk County 51-49 but I imagine he would have won Chelsea and Revere.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 02:17:04 AM And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage. Rs do own the courts for the moment, yes. But this result just makes it all the more inevitable that by the time Ds finally do win back the Senate (which could well take a decade or possibly even more), there will be Court packing and fundamental reform of judicial nominating process in a way that is more legitimate and democratically representative of the people's votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:17:27 AM Quote They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown. Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats. Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do. They weren't favored for the Senate overall, but there's no reason Arizona should be this close, no reason Florida should've been lost, and no reason the margins in Indiana or Missouri should've been what they were, or the seat retentions in the upper Midwest. And we're looking at the increasing possibility of Tester losing as well. And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage. Arizona is very slow at counting, you can't really say how close it is yet. McSally was a good candiate - Sinema was not fortunate to be running against Arpaio or Ward. It would have been nice for Sinema to be clearly winning, but for AZ, a state which has voted R for basically everything for basically forever, and where a significant part of the Dem base includes low turnout demographics such as Youngs and Hispanics, this is a great result especially in a midterm year, and suggests Dems can do well in AZ in the future (including competing there in 2020). F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously. Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 02:17:36 AM If CNN is undercounting MT percents, then Tester likely wins.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 02:17:39 AM Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election. Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead. One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs. Spot on, but TX is also trending Democratic and O'Rourke nearly pulled it off. Texas is certainly one of the brightest spots of tonight, given the two flips and how close other districts were, not to mention how close O'Rourke came. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:18:15 AM Can McBath ask for a recount? I'm sure there will be a recount with the margin being just 57 votes and 100% reporting. But they'll count military absentees and provisionals first - I think those will on net favor McBath, maybe enough for her to lead before the recount. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 07, 2018, 02:18:17 AM Milwaukee votes came in, as of now above the margin to allow a recount by law. Evers should stay able that and win.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:18:42 AM Scott Walker losing is the scalp of the night for sure No! KKKobach for sure. Not surewhy that race isn't getting much attention It was very pleasing how early it was called for Kelly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Very Legal & Very Cool on November 07, 2018, 02:19:21 AM I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight. Just kind of so-so? But our Senate majority is bigger to confirm justices who will overturn Roe. You need a Dem to leave the court, or maybe Roberts, in the next 2 years for that to happen. Roberts won't leave under Trump I meant if he died. He seems healthy. Wtf Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 02:20:36 AM Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election. Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead. One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs. Spot on, but TX is also trending Democratic and O'Rourke nearly pulled it off. You are right. While I think John Cornyn is favored in 2020, especially with it being a presidential year, I also believe that he will face a much more competitive race than he did in 2014. He definitely won't be getting over 60% of the vote this time. And the suburban trend in Texas, as well as the trends concerning minority and young voters, should send alarm signals to the Republicans there. But in a way, I am disappointed by the results of this midterm, given that it has only confirmed the intensification of polarization. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 02:20:40 AM LOL @ tossup Nevada and tossup New Jersey
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 07, 2018, 02:21:08 AM Scott Walker losing is the scalp of the night for sure No! KKKobach for sure. Not surewhy that race isn't getting much attention Scott Walker has been a villain for us since 2010 including besting us 3 times previously. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on November 07, 2018, 02:21:10 AM Why have NV and WI not been called?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 02:21:27 AM When you add Governor, Congressional, and Senatorial results in the Democrats won all of the 100 most populous county in the country except Collin, Denton, and Lee County.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 02:21:37 AM Ooga booga, bye bye Heller and Laxalt!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 02:21:40 AM Missoula is still only 1/3 reporting. Seems like Tester should pick up at least 10k votes just out of there.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:21:44 AM And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage. Rs do own the courts for the moment, yes. But this result just makes it all the more inevitable that by the time Ds finally do win back the Senate (which could well take a decade or possibly even more), there will be Court packing and fundamental reform of judicial nominating process in a way that is more legitimate and democratically representative of the people's votes. But it's a self-perpetuating cycle! The court will viciously and ruthlessly exploit every chance of voter suppression through Republican favorable rulings on gerrymandering, voter ID laws, limitation of voting times and places, any and all other administrative measures to interfere with voter registration in Broward County, etc etc etc. People complained about democracy being broken since the 60s. However, we have never been in such a. Since the Civil War were an extremist minority has crammed its views down the majority of Americans throats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 02:22:46 AM If CNN is undercounting MT percents, then Tester likely wins. New York Times gives Tester an 83% chance of winning. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 02:23:55 AM Am I seeing this right? Did the Dems actually sweep mainland New England in the House?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cape Verde on November 07, 2018, 02:24:05 AM Interesting how Kevin De Leon is sweeping Republican counties
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:24:13 AM I haven't been checking in tonight, but I can't decide whether I'm happy with the results or disappointed by them tonight. Just kind of so-so? But our Senate majority is bigger to confirm justices who will overturn Roe. You need a Dem to leave the court, or maybe Roberts, in the next 2 years for that to happen. Roberts won't leave under Trump I meant if he died. He seems healthy. Wtf I mean, he himself made that very point to Republican rallies within the last couple weeks. Sure, I'm guessing a lot of it was just too Jen up the vote, but he does have a point. Besides, compared to other well-preserved fossils like Mitt Romney, Etc, Grassley looks every day of his 85 years. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 02:25:09 AM On the bright side outside judges, a GOP Senate isn't really that bad because Republican don't have any ideas. And the one they do have are unpopular.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 02:25:11 AM Collin Peterson is gone in 2020, assuming he even runs again.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 02:25:12 AM Arizona is making me nervous, but Sinema has more favorable turf out. Yep, all that is left is 45% out in Apache, 67% out in Pinal (56% for Trump in 2016), and 87% out in Maricopa (which is a lot of votes, by far the largest county in the state). Looking at the 2016 Results, there is the following % of the vote outstanding (2016 result in brackets): Apache: 72.8%% (Clinton +32.7%) Greenlee: 12.5% (Trump +24.6%) Maricopa: 72.27% (Trump +2.9%) Pima: 59.04% (Clinton +13.8%) Pinal: 47.06% (Trump +19.5%) Yavapai: 2.22% (Trump 31.8%) Critically, Marciopa and Pima are way larger than any other the other counties. Dems should hope that Apache reverts back to the Clinton margin as well. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:26:15 AM CNN projects Jacky!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 02:27:02 AM CA-21 called for Valadao. It's now the most Democratic district in the country held by a Republican at D+5.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 07, 2018, 02:27:39 AM So are we not going to see any more from Arizona tonight? If so thats probably my cue.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 02:27:46 AM Worst realistic case for the GOP in the Senate is 53 votes, which is an adequate number as it neutralizes both Collins and Murkowski on future judges.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:27:48 AM Am I seeing this right? Did the Dems actually sweep mainland New England in the House? Likely. ME-02 is close, and Maine as of this election uses instant run-off voting for its Congressional elections, so they'll need to distribute the preferences of the independents (chiefly Tiffany Bond). Bond was running mainly as a centrist against Poliquin, so her voters will probably favor Golden, but it's hard to be certain, especially since the IRV system in Maine is brand new. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 02:28:21 AM JACKY!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:28:49 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 02:28:57 AM Arizona is making me nervous, but Sinema has more favorable turf out. Yep, all that is left is 45% out in Apache, 67% out in Pinal (56% for Trump in 2016), and 87% out in Maricopa (which is a lot of votes, by far the largest county in the state). Looking at the 2016 Results, there is the following % of the vote outstanding (2016 result in brackets): Apache: 72.8%% (Clinton +32.7%) Greenlee: 12.5% (Trump +24.6%) Maricopa: 72.27% (Trump +2.9%) Pima: 59.04% (Clinton +13.8%) Pinal: 47.06% (Trump +19.5%) Yavapai: 2.22% (Trump 31.8%) Critically, Marciopa and Pima are way larger than any other the other counties. Dems should hope that Apache reverts back to the Clinton margin as well. Apache won't matter, it's way to small. Sinema should more than make up for McSally's current margin through the Pima vote, and it will all come down to Maricopa, which should be very close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 02:30:09 AM B-b-b-b-b-ut Atlas, pundits, pollsters, "experts" all told me muh Unbeatable Titan...
I will now accept my accolades. I told you guys Nevada was more likely to go D than MO/AZ/WV/MT/IN/ND/FL. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: AtorBoltox on November 07, 2018, 02:30:26 AM Worst realistic case for the GOP in the Senate is 53 votes, which is an adequate number as it neutralizes both Collins and Murkowski on future judges. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 02:30:31 AM Collin Peterson is gone in 2020, assuming he even runs again. Have you seen my thread concerning the intensification of the rural-suburban divide? It astounds me the extent to which Klobuchar collapsed in royal Minnesota as compared to 2012. And Peterson narrowly winning yet again, as well as MN-11 (apparently) and MN-8 flipping to the Republicans, show that the trend is only going to get worse. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 02:31:09 AM I think that Democrats will keep MN-01. Mower County is 100% out. Trump won it in 2016, but he only got 49%. Waltz and the rest of the ticket will probably win here and Feehan is only down 566 votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shadows on November 07, 2018, 02:32:23 AM On the bright side outside judges, a GOP Senate isn't really that bad because Republican don't have any ideas. And the one they do have are unpopular. It is a DISASTER. Dems can't win 5-6 seats in 2020 & so an incumbent Dem president will have a GOP Senate with McConnell as Leader. I doubt 2022 with a Dem President will be a net DEM+ year. So basically a wasted 1st term. Maybe no SC judges. Maybe McConnell will block Cabinet positions. Maybe McConnell will force cuts to Medicare & SS for any budget to be passed. DISASTER. One of the biggest Republican victories in decades ! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 02:32:33 AM F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously. Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling. I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters? If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem? If Dems won by 20? Should Dems need to win by 25? What would be the appropriate threshold? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 02:33:58 AM F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously. Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling. I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters? If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem? If Dems won by 20? Should Dems need to win by 25? What would be the appropriate threshold? Dems should never have failed to take back the senate in 2016 in the first place. That whole election was unforgivable as we're still paying for it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 02:35:14 AM F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously. Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling. I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters? If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem? If Dems won by 20? Should Dems need to win by 25? What would be the appropriate threshold? Posters have not come to terms with how undemocratic the senate is. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:35:38 AM Politico calls it for Evers!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 02:35:44 AM Karen Handel is a goner in 2020 if she manages to survive Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 02:37:19 AM Is there a map anywhere of where the Dem House pickups were (like just the pickups?) It'd be interesting to see all at once where they were
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 02:37:21 AM Karen Handel is a goner in 2020 if she manages to survive I saw a thread before and people asked which Trump districts will vote democrat in 2020 and Ga 6th is the only one I am 90% confident will. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 02:38:41 AM Will Hurd is down with 98% of vote in. AP may have called it too early.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 07, 2018, 02:38:41 AM Is there a map anywhere of where the Dem House pickups were (like just the pickups?) It'd be interesting to see all at once where they were https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/house You can toggle to show pick ups only. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 02:39:25 AM Ladies and gentleman, after a long (figurative) fight, Walker has finally been slain.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CookieDamage on November 07, 2018, 02:39:51 AM Ooga booga, bye bye Heller and Laxalt!!!!!!!!!! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shadows on November 07, 2018, 02:40:13 AM F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously. Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling. I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters? If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem? If Dems won by 20? Should Dems need to win by 25? What would be the appropriate threshold? Dems should never have failed to take back the senate in 2016 in the first place. That whole election was unforgivable as we're still paying for it. Absolutely. Thanks to Hillary Clinton. Dems should have won FL, WI, PA, NC, IN & MO. All 6 were winnable. If atleast 3 or 4 would have been won, then maybe their would be a Dem Senate & no Kavanaugh, no Tax cuts for Billionaires. 2016 was unforgivable ! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illiniwek on November 07, 2018, 02:40:27 AM Ladies and gentleman, after a long (figurative) fight, Walker has finally been slain. Can't like, this one does feel good. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 07, 2018, 02:41:03 AM Politico calls it for Evers! Yes! Oh god, yes! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 07, 2018, 02:41:13 AM GOVERNOR EVERS! <3
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 02:41:26 AM And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage. Rs do own the courts for the moment, yes. But this result just makes it all the more inevitable that by the time Ds finally do win back the Senate (which could well take a decade or possibly even more), there will be Court packing and fundamental reform of judicial nominating process in a way that is more legitimate and democratically representative of the people's votes. But it's a self-perpetuating cycle! The court will viciously and ruthlessly exploit every chance of voter suppression through Republican favorable rulings on gerrymandering, voter ID laws, limitation of voting times and places, any and all other administrative measures to interfere with voter registration in Broward County, etc etc etc. People complained about democracy being broken since the 60s. However, we have never been in such a. Since the Civil War were an extremist minority has crammed its views down the majority of Americans throats. It is a problem, to be sure, but Dems also made a lot of gains to help offset this sort of thing. In the case of FL, the outcome is hardly ideal (FL is definitely the #1 low point for Dems), but nonetheless the felon anti-disenfranchisement amendment passed. There is still the redistricting constitutional amendments in FL as well, though of course they probably won't be enforced as well as we would like, they probably also won't be at least entirely ignored either. And in various other states such as MI, WI, and probably VA (NY? NC?), redistricting will also be better. I do agree with you very much that these things are problems, but they are less of a problem now than they were yesterday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 07, 2018, 02:43:10 AM Ortiz Jones apparently coming back from the dead in TX-23 up 300 votes now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2018, 02:43:31 AM Cruz will win might have been right about the Beto effect. I think Will Hurd just lost.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 02:43:39 AM And Kobach losing, biggest upset imo governor wise!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:43:56 AM Ortiz Jones apparently coming back from the dead in TX-23 up 300 votes now. She can thank Beto for that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 02:44:25 AM Will Hurd lost
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 07, 2018, 02:44:59 AM Yep, and CNN has it called for him, lol. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 07, 2018, 02:45:13 AM McAdams still up 2.5 with 100% of precincts in, per CNN
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 07, 2018, 02:45:31 AM She already conceded he gave a victory speech lol!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 02:46:25 AM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:48:47 AM And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage. Rs do own the courts for the moment, yes. But this result just makes it all the more inevitable that by the time Ds finally do win back the Senate (which could well take a decade or possibly even more), there will be Court packing and fundamental reform of judicial nominating process in a way that is more legitimate and democratically representative of the people's votes. But it's a self-perpetuating cycle! The court will viciously and ruthlessly exploit every chance of voter suppression through Republican favorable rulings on gerrymandering, voter ID laws, limitation of voting times and places, any and all other administrative measures to interfere with voter registration in Broward County, etc etc etc. People complained about democracy being broken since the 60s. However, we have never been in such a. Since the Civil War were an extremist minority has crammed its views down the majority of Americans throats. It is a problem, to be sure, but Dems also made a lot of gains to help offset this sort of thing. In the case of FL, the outcome is hardly ideal (FL is definitely the #1 low point for Dems), but nonetheless the felon anti-disenfranchisement amendment passed. There is still the redistricting constitutional amendments in FL as well, though of course they probably won't be enforced as well as we would like, they probably also won't be at least entirely ignored either. And in various other states such as MI, WI, and probably VA (NY? NC?), redistricting will also be better. I do agree with you very much that these things are problems, but they are less of a problem now than they were yesterday. True dat. I'm just particularly sore at the lack of gerrymandering control that's going to exist in Ohio and Florida in a couple years. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 02:50:15 AM Holy crap, the Texas gerrymander almost collapsed.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 02:50:49 AM Yep, and CNN has it called for him, lol. CNN's total has Hurd up by 7000, or is that too out of date? (and if so is there something more up to date to get the totals?) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 07, 2018, 02:50:58 AM Cruz will win might have been right about the Beto effect. I think Will Hurd just lost. I was actually just checking out TX-23 numbers, and + 689 R raw margin, starts to get into Provisional Ballots because of voter suppression.... Think I posted a few posts about TX-23, focused mainly on Bexar County precincts. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 02:51:23 AM NYT just uncalled TX-23. WaPo still has it called for Hurd.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 02:51:36 AM Haha, Hurd and Curbelo going down is satisfying at least. All the pundits acted like those were Safe R seats because of #candidatequality And Shalala would lose because #CandidateQualityMatters. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 07, 2018, 02:52:07 AM Is Katie Porter too far behind?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 02:52:11 AM I really want to See Beto's congressional district map.
He definitely won all 14 Clinton districts. I think he might have won a few more districts. We have to remember it may have been only a 6.5 point swing but a lot of districts had basically no swing from 2016 especially in the panhandle . Anyone have an idea what districts he won? Texas 31st is probably one of them? the 2nd? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:53:12 AM So, whats the latest n Montana? It seems to be the last open senate seat up for grabs tonight since Arizona won't likely be called for another day or two.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 07, 2018, 02:53:42 AM Is Katie Porter too far behind? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cape Verde on November 07, 2018, 02:55:28 AM Will Hurd's loss means that the NYT Poll was a crap.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:55:41 AM Yep, and CNN has it called for him, lol. CNN's total has Hurd up by 7000, or is that too out of date? (and if so is there something more up to date to get the totals?) Not sure what's going on there. NYT says 100% reporting, ~300-vote margin for Ortiz-Jones. CNN has slightly more votes total, says 100% reporting, ~700-vote margin for Hurd. It's possible there was a tabulation error that NYT has fixed and the others have not, but I'm not sure. NYT's numbers matched CNN's until just recently when they uncalled the race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 07, 2018, 02:55:48 AM I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:56:39 AM I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount. I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 02:57:18 AM Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 02:57:30 AM So, whats the latest n Montana? It seems to be the last open senate seat up for grabs tonight since Arizona won't likely be called for another day or two. I think Tester will win and it won't even be that close. The remaining vote is heavily weighted toward Gallatin and Missoula. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 02:57:39 AM I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount. I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%. Maybe not alone, but the city of Hartford is only at 8%, East Hartford has reported nothing, and Norwalk has also reported nothing. Lamont has at least 25,000 net votes outstanding from those places. He'll win. Edit: Norwalk dropped and gave Lamont net 8,000 votes. He's now down just 13,000. That should be made up by just one of New Haven or Hartford. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:58:58 AM I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount. I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%. Maybe not alone, but the city of Hartford is only at 8%, East Hartford has reported nothing, and Norwalk has also reported nothing. Lamont has at least 25,000 net votes outstanding from those places. He'll win. Last I heard on one of these threads was that Lamont was losing Hartford. I'm not an expert on Connecticut politics, but that sounded odd to me. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 02:59:36 AM I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount. Most of the outstanding vote seems to be from Hartford (8% with east at 0%) and Stratford (0%) as per CNN's map which is at 99% otherwise Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 02:59:43 AM I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount. I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%. Maybe not alone, but the city of Hartford is only at 8%, East Hartford has reported nothing, and Norwalk has also reported nothing. Lamont has at least 25,000 net votes outstanding from those places. He'll win. Wow, I missed Hartford. It's still interesting how close this race has been. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 02:59:47 AM F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously. Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling. I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters? If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem? If Dems won by 20? Should Dems need to win by 25? What would be the appropriate threshold? Dems should never have failed to take back the senate in 2016 in the first place. That whole election was unforgivable as we're still paying for it. 2016 was not the voter's fault either. It was the electoral system's fault. The voters voted for Democrats in 2016 just as they voted for Democrats in 2018 (although they voted more for Dems in 2018 than 2016). Dems won more votes in the Senate in 2016. Dems won more votes for the Presidency also. If America had a legitimate representative democratic Goverment, Dems would have won in 2016. Just like Dems would have won the Senate elections in 2018 if the U.S. Senate were a legitimate institution worthy of our respect. And despite lack of a legitimate representative democratic government in the House (gerrymandering), Dems nonetheless won the House. Don't blame the voters for not being represented by the system. Blame the system for not representing the voters. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 03:00:02 AM I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount. I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%. Maybe not alone, but the city of Hartford is only at 8%, East Hartford has reported nothing, and Norwalk has also reported nothing. Lamont has at least 25,000 net votes outstanding from those places. He'll win. Last I heard on one of these threads was that Lamont was losing Hartford. I'm not an expert on Connecticut politics, but that sounded odd to me. I think they meant Hartford County, which was true earlier in the night because the strongly D towns and cities report late. City of Hartford will be 75%+ Lamont when it drops. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jeppe on November 07, 2018, 03:01:53 AM Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever. Not really, by state constitution, the Missouri state auditor picks somebody to draw legislative disitricts! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 07, 2018, 03:03:45 AM Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever. Not really, by state constitution, the Missouri state auditor picks somebody to draw legislative disitricts! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 03:04:36 AM Posters have not come to terms with how undemocratic the senate is. Yeah, it will take some time for people to come to terms with it. In a way, given that Dems lost a good # of seats, it almost would have been better if Dems had also lost WV (and MT assuming Tester pulls it out). That would make no immediate difference in terms of policy, since nothing will get passed anyway, but might quicken the process of people realizing that something has to change in the Senate. I am not happy about the Dem Senate losses, but I do hope that it helps to clarify the problem to more people. To anyone who is still not clear on it, just consider that WV, for example, is certainly going to be lost in 2024 regardless of whether Manchin is still around or not. AL will likewise basically for sure be lost in 2020, unless maybe Rs make a really huge own goal. And Dems are not going to ever compete for Senate seats in states like TN etc again any time in the reasonable future. So any thoughts about "Dems can still win Senate seats in deep red states" should not be thrown out the window. It is never going to happen Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 03:04:44 AM Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever. Not really, by state constitution, the Missouri state auditor picks somebody to draw legislative disitricts! Not much but I'll take it at least! Interesting thing going on with Montana, Tester still behind but shrank the margin from 4k to 3k between the 66% and 75% mark in vote counting. Not gone yet (still could be) but the margin is shrinking which is always good. It'll be extremely close regardless. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 03:05:48 AM Posters have not come to terms with how undemocratic the senate is. Yeah, it will take some time for people to come to terms with it. In a way, given that Dems lost a good # of seats, it almost would have been better if Dems had also lost WV (and MT assuming Tester pulls it out). That would make no immediate difference in terms of policy, since nothing will get passed anyway, but might quicken the process of people realizing that something has to change in the Senate. I am not happy about the Dem Senate losses, but I do hope that it helps to clarify the problem to more people. To anyone who is still not clear on it, just consider that WV, for example, is certainly going to be lost in 2024 regardless of whether Manchin is still around or not. AL will likewise basically for sure be lost in 2020, unless maybe Rs make a really huge own goal. And Dems are not going to ever compete for Senate seats in states like TN etc again any time in the reasonable future. So any thoughts about "Dems can still win Senate seats in deep red states" should not be thrown out the window. It is never going to happen It would be more fair if Puerto Rico, DC, Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and the Marianas (Guam + Northern Marianas) were states... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 03:06:07 AM Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever. Not really, by state constitution, the Missouri state auditor picks somebody to draw legislative disitricts! For the state legislature only, or do they control congressional redistricting also? The latter might be significant, the former probably not so much as I can't see the Democrats winning the Missouri state legislature on a fair map any more than an R gerrymander. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 03:07:58 AM LMAO MSNBC just said:
"If you would've told people that Republicans would be gaining Senate seats, everyone would've assumed Heller was safe!" LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! God these "analysts" are clowns. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 03:08:00 AM Absolutely. Thanks to Hillary Clinton. Dems should have won FL, WI, PA, NC, IN & MO. All 6 were winnable. If atleast 3 or 4 would have been won, then maybe their would be a Dem Senate & no Kavanaugh, no Tax cuts for Billionaires. 2016 was unforgivable ! I didn't vote for Hillary Clinton either (in the Dem primary), but the voters did. Both in the primary and the general election (and I voted for her in that). And likewise the voters voted for Democrats to control the Senate in 2016. So don't blame the voters for the failures of the American electoral system, it is not their fault. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ye We Can on November 07, 2018, 03:09:19 AM CNN has Stefanowski up by 1 with 99 percent in?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 03:09:24 AM FWIW, FL-Sen is now within auto-recount territory.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 03:11:10 AM CNN has Stefanowski up by 1 with 99 percent in? The 1% is the cities of Hartford, East Hartford and New Haven. Lamont wins. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 03:11:25 AM FWIW, FL-Sen is now within auto-recount territory. It's not over 'til it's over. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 03:13:04 AM FWIW, FL-Sen is now within auto-recount territory. Whoa. What happened? It just tightened significantly. I don't think a recount could overcome a 39,000 vote deficit, but *maybe* provisionals could make a significant dent in that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shadows on November 07, 2018, 03:13:06 AM So, whats the latest n Montana? It seems to be the last open senate seat up for grabs tonight since Arizona won't likely be called for another day or two. I think Tester will win and it won't even be that close. The remaining vote is heavily weighted toward Gallatin and Missoula. Big portion of Missoula is left. He can make 15,000 votes there & he is down by 4000. This is not hard. Gianforte is up 23,000 so he is possibly safe. He will make it by 10,000+ or so. Dems need to get Bullock to run for the Senate & need to recruit a strong candidate for the House. Montana looks promising ! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 03:13:42 AM Holy crap, the Texas gerrymander almost collapsed. I haven't looked at the state legislative results, but given the Congressional and Senate results I am sure there must be some shocking GOP losses and surprising close calls all over the TX megacities. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 03:15:18 AM Another query. Does anyone have news on what the national popular vote share for the house is? How many points did the Democrats win by?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 03:15:56 AM Haha, Hurd and Curbelo going down is satisfying at least. All the pundits acted like those were Safe R seats because of #candidatequality And Shalala would lose because #CandidateQualityMatters. It was closer than it shouldn't be, but yeah, the results tonight should pretty clearly indicate to everyone that incumbency and candidate quality are increasingly less and less important. Anyone who wants to emphasize those things over fundamentals and the national environment needs to re-think. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 03:16:29 AM From twitter
() So functionally the GOP retains the House too Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 03:16:58 AM The only statewide race in Nevada Republicans are in the lead for is Sec. of State Cegavske, who is the only statewide incumbent running for reelection.
http://www.silverstateelection.com/NVOther/ (http://www.silverstateelection.com/NVOther/) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 03:17:30 AM "Safe R" NV-02 is closer to flipping than "toss up" NV-03 and NV-04! LMFAO @ the pundits!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 07, 2018, 03:17:53 AM How are the California races looking?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 03:18:13 AM Holy crap, the Texas gerrymander almost collapsed. I haven't looked at the state legislative results, but given the Congressional and Senate results I am sure there must be some shocking GOP losses and surprising close calls all over the TX megacities. I see the Democrats knocked off two incumbent Republican State Senators (Burton and Huffines), and I see at least 7 Republican incumbents who lost their State House seats, plus some close Democratic wins in open seats that I bet were gains (but I'm not familiar enough with Texas to say). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 07, 2018, 03:18:26 AM California races are going to take a while to call. Ballots postmarked by today have until Friday to reach their respective county offices.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 03:18:40 AM So, whats the latest n Montana? It seems to be the last open senate seat up for grabs tonight since Arizona won't likely be called for another day or two. I think Tester will win and it won't even be that close. The remaining vote is heavily weighted toward Gallatin and Missoula. Big portion of Missoula is left. He can make 15,000 votes there & he is down by 4000. This is not hard. Gianforte is up 23,000 so he is possibly safe. He will make it by 10,000+ or so. Dems need to get Bullock to run for the Senate & need to recruit a strong candidate for the House. Montana looks promising ! I actually wondered why Montana survived and there was no dem collapse in the polls compared to other trump states. It was generally accepted that Tester had a narrow lead and when I saw Indiana I knew Mcaskill was doomed immediatly and I was writing off Tester too but it looks like he is still in the game. Why did Tester survive(Or atleast looks ok) while Mcaskill and Donnely got screwed over. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 03:18:48 AM Will Hurd's loss means that the NYT Poll was a crap. They can't poll Hispanics. That hardly makes them unique though, basically nobody can actually poll Hispanics. Similar problem to Nevada polling. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 07, 2018, 03:18:52 AM The only statewide race in Nevada Republicans are in the lead for is Sec. of State Cegavske, who is the only statewide incumbent running for reelection. http://www.silverstateelection.com/NVOther/ (http://www.silverstateelection.com/NVOther/) He's done since a fair chunk of CD-01 and CD-04 is out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 03:18:53 AM Another query. Does anyone have news on what the national popular vote share for the house is? How many points did the Democrats win by? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html This has it at 7.1, but that will likely go up. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 03:20:36 AM Another query. Does anyone have news on what the national popular vote share for the house is? How many points did the Democrats win by? Currently, it is 50.8-47.6 for the Democrats on NYT's website with actual votes, but as per usual the Democrats will add at least 2-3 points to that margin over the next week or so as California counts. I think they are not counting uncontested seats, of which there were a lot more on the Democratic side than the Republican side, so that figure is also probably skewed around a point or two to the Republicans. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shadows on November 07, 2018, 03:21:20 AM Absolutely. Thanks to Hillary Clinton. Dems should have won FL, WI, PA, NC, IN & MO. All 6 were winnable. If atleast 3 or 4 would have been won, then maybe their would be a Dem Senate & no Kavanaugh, no Tax cuts for Billionaires. 2016 was unforgivable ! I didn't vote for Hillary Clinton either (in the Dem primary), but the voters did. Both in the primary and the general election (and I voted for her in that). And likewise the voters voted for Democrats to control the Senate in 2016. So don't blame the voters for the failures of the American electoral system, it is not their fault. Has nothing to do with voters. For one to address Gerrymandering, Dems have to do amazing down-ballot. No use cribbing about the system. it is what it is. Then accept defeat & say nothing is possible in the present system. The point is 2016 performance should have been better. No Dem should have lost WI, PA & MI to Trump which effectively cost 2 Senate Seats. If there was a better candidate, then OH, FL, NC, MO & IN Senate seats would be in play. Democrats could have won 8 more seats & would have had 59 freakin' seats now. That was supposed to be a blowout year vs a candidate like Trump. And the top of the ticket dragged everyone down. Anyways no use cribbing about 2016. But Dems should have 4 -5 more Senate Seats atleast & would have control of both houses today. There was no electoral issue with Senate Seats. It was straight Popular votes in states like WI or PA. No use cribbing Dakotas having 4 seats vs 2 for Cal ! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 03:23:30 AM So what were the best and worst gerrymanders this cycle
Best- North Carolina- Absolutely Brutal and dems failed to pick up 1. Worst- I might have to go with Texas which almost completely collapsed under Beto Mania but New Jersey is another one but that isn't a full gerrymander either. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 03:24:38 AM It would be more fair if Puerto Rico, DC, Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and the Marianas (Guam + Northern Marianas) were states... Yep. I don't think that is the absolute ideal solution - there are other things that would be better in principle. But these are the sorts of ideas that are going to increasingly enter the national conversation. And they are increasingly going to be the #1 goal of Dems, simply because Dems cannot ever do anything else unless and until the issue of the lack of representative democracy in the USA is addressed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 03:25:32 AM So what were the best and worst gerrymanders this cycle Best- North Carolina- Absolutely Brutal and dems failed to pick up 1. Worst- I might have to go with Texas which almost completely collapsed under Beto Mania. But, don't count NC-09 out. 97% reporting with less than a 2,000 vote difference. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 03:32:01 AM Latest AZ update was really bad for Sinema...she gained nothing out of the remaining Pima vote.
She needs to pray she does signficantly better in the last 1/4 of Maricopa than she did in the rest of it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 03:32:26 AM McBath has taken the lead.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 03:32:36 AM Dems need to get Bullock to run for the Senate & need to recruit a strong candidate for the House. Montana looks promising ! LMAO at anyone who thinks that "candidate quality" is the issue, even after tonight. The problem has very little to do with Democrats having or not having "strong candidates." The magical fairy candidate Bullock is not going to save you. The problem is the fundamental institutional structure of the Senate and the system by which it is elected. The problem is not that Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill, and Nelson (presumably Nelson, though I guess there is a recount for FL) were "weak candidates." The problem is that voters vote largely irrespective of "candidate strength." They vote on the basis of partisan polarization. I guess it really would have been better for Tester and Manchin to lose, since you and apparently at least some others still have not gotten it through your head that Dems cannot rely on winning ridiculously deep Red states in the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 03:32:40 AM So what were the best and worst gerrymanders this cycle Best- North Carolina- Absolutely Brutal and dems failed to pick up 1. Worst- I might have to go with Texas which almost completely collapsed under Beto Mania. But, don't count NC-09 out. 97% reporting with less than a 2,000 vote difference. Luckily the Democrats cemented their control of the NCSC and broke the supermajorities in the legislature. These maps should be going down soon. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 03:32:43 AM Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: AndyHogan14 on November 07, 2018, 03:32:47 AM It would be more fair if Puerto Rico, DC, Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and the Marianas (Guam + Northern Marianas) were states... Yep. I don't think that is the absolute ideal solution - there are other things that would be better in principle. But these are the sorts of ideas that are going to increasingly enter the national conversation. And they are increasingly going to be the #1 goal of Dems, simply because Dems cannot ever do anything else unless and until the issue of the lack of representative democracy in the USA is addressed. There's no way it would get the requisite 2/3 in both houses and 3/4 of the states, but it would be nice to strip the Senate of its power and make it more of an advisory body like the Lords in the UK. At the very least, I would like the House to have a say on SCOTUS nominees (hearings are still in the Senate, the House would just get a vote), just like they do for a replacement Vice President and that is something that I think could be done via statute. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 03:33:34 AM McBath has taken the lead. I want to believe. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Blair on November 07, 2018, 03:35:43 AM What's the verdict on the remaining vote in AZ?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 03:35:43 AM Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 07, 2018, 03:35:46 AM Garcia gets blown out
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 03:39:18 AM Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination. The way the Senate played out entered embarrassment territory hours ago. This is just downright humiliating at this point. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 03:40:18 AM Damn, that NC gerrymander was absolutely brutal. Even McCready probably won't break through.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 03:40:41 AM McBath has taken the lead. I want to believe. I'm not joking () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 07, 2018, 03:41:48 AM Are Dems winning AZ congressional ballot?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 03:42:30 AM McBath has taken the lead. I want to believe. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 07, 2018, 03:42:52 AM Garcia like Valdez, gave the GOP their Senate victory. AZ hasn't elected a statewide Dem, since Diconcini
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 03:44:05 AM No use cribbing Dakotas having 4 seats vs 2 for Cal ! There is very much use cribbing about the Dakotas having 4 seats vs 2 for CA, if you want to ever accomplish anything else whatsoever. If you don't fix that issue, you will never do anything else. The first step to solving any problem is to correctly identify what the problem is. The problem is fundamental and is precisely that the Dakotas have 4 seats vs 2 for CA. In the United States Senate, each person in Wyoming is 69 times more important than each person in California. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 03:44:05 AM Garcia like Valdez, gave the GOP their Senate victory. AZ hasn't elected a statewide Dem, since Diconcini This is incredibly premature. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 03:45:03 AM There's no way it would get the requisite 2/3 in both houses and 3/4 of the states, but it would be nice to strip the Senate of its power and make it more of an advisory body like the Lords in the UK. There are ways to get around that if you really want to. When push comes to shove, the Constitution can be amended with an effective simple majority vote via temporarily admitted new fake states (rotten borough states) in order to increase the # of votes that you have. And there are probably various other ways to accomplish the same thing, which I haven't thought of but that might be more artful. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 03:45:38 AM McBath has taken the lead. I want to believe. 151,340-131,283 for Handel is probably the count you are seeing. But CNN now has it at 153,192-152,203 for McBath. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: boske94 on November 07, 2018, 03:46:19 AM Will Hurd won after correction of tabulation error. Dana Rohrabacher on the ropes (trailing 2K with 90 % in).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 03:46:31 AM The AZ Data Guru @Garrett_Archer:
Maricopa incoming Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 07, 2018, 03:46:46 AM From twitter () So functionally the GOP retains the House too Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 03:47:31 AM People shouldn't really be commenting on the California races. There are still millions of votes that will take past Thanksgiving to count.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 03:47:47 AM Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination. I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 03:49:32 AM Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination. I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from. A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 03:49:50 AM In the AZ Race, Vaughn Hillyard of MSNBC says there are 350k early ballots that must be counted/verified that aren't going to be in the count tonight.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 03:50:07 AM Lucy McBath is leading according to CNN now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 03:50:34 AM Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination. I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from. A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties. If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: AndyHogan14 on November 07, 2018, 03:51:25 AM There's no way it would get the requisite 2/3 in both houses and 3/4 of the states, but it would be nice to strip the Senate of its power and make it more of an advisory body like the Lords in the UK. There are ways to get around that if you really want to. When push comes to shove, the Constitution can be amended with an effective simple majority vote via temporarily admitted new fake states (rotten borough states) in order to increase the # of votes that you have. And there are probably various other ways to accomplish the same thing, which I haven't thought of but that might be more artful. Wouldn't we then need a majority in the Senate to get these temporary states admitted? Quite frankly, I do not see that happening any time soon...no way Democrats are picking up 5 seats in 2020. 2-3 was possible, 5? No way. In the end, I'd be on board so long as California (a state that would be temporarily split up, I'm sure) is guaranteed to be reunified once the scheme is over. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 03:55:56 AM Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination. I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from. A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties. If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide. You are right. 93% of the precincts are reporting at this point, according to the Huffington Post (though I've read about the extra ballots that will have to be counted). I also read that the remaining precincts are ones located in Maricopa County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: President Johnson on November 07, 2018, 03:56:11 AM What's Tester's shot to hang on?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 03:57:22 AM What's Tester's shot to hang on? 82% chance of winning. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 03:58:29 AM Sherrod Brown won by about the same margin as he did in 2012. I really want to see the swing map.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 04:01:41 AM Guys McBath is ahead rn on CNN
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 04:02:24 AM CNN calling New Hampshire for Sununu seems premature.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 04:03:06 AM Lucy McBath leads 155,076-153,641.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 04:03:13 AM Montana twitter:
@DaveWeigel (comparing it to CTGov) Similar situation in #MTSen -- a bunch of outstanding areas where Dems run up the score. @guypbenson But outstanding MT vote looks Tester favorable. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 04:03:53 AM Lucy McBath leads 155,076-153,641. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 04:04:53 AM Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination. I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from. A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties. If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide. You are right. 93% of the precincts are reporting at this point, according to the Huffington Post (though I've read about the extra ballots that will have to be counted). I also read that the remaining precincts are ones located in Maricopa County. Maricopa County is currently really tight, Sinema up 452,208 to 449,990. That's with about 83% in. About 14% left to come in from Apache County as well, so far that county has split about 60/40 to Sinema. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 04:05:48 AM There's no way it would get the requisite 2/3 in both houses and 3/4 of the states, but it would be nice to strip the Senate of its power and make it more of an advisory body like the Lords in the UK. There are ways to get around that if you really want to. When push comes to shove, the Constitution can be amended with an effective simple majority vote via temporarily admitted new fake states (rotten borough states) in order to increase the # of votes that you have. And there are probably various other ways to accomplish the same thing, which I haven't thought of but that might be more artful. Wouldn't we then need a majority in the Senate to get these temporary states admitted? Quite frankly, I do not see that happening any time soon...no way Democrats are picking up 5 seats in 2020. 2-3 was possible, 5? No way. In the end, I'd be on board so long as California (a state that would be temporarily split up, I'm sure) is guaranteed to be reunified once the scheme is over. Yes. Converting America into a representative democracy is a long term multi-year project. It is unlikely to happen by 2020. It could take a decade or potentially more. But it is a prerequisite for achieving any other policy goals that you may have. The sooner we realize the problem and get started towards fixing it, the sooner we can move on to other more important substantive issues. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 07, 2018, 04:05:55 AM Florida going to automatic recount!
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 04:06:40 AM What's Tester's shot to hang on? 82% chance of winning. R margin quite a bit larger than last check--where are the remaining votes coming from? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 04:08:41 AM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: President Johnson on November 07, 2018, 04:08:52 AM Imagine of Hilldog was president now. The senate would be a disaster. Tester, Brown, Manchin and maybe Stebenow would be gone. Possible Kaine's old seat as well.
However, I think there is a chance the Republicans keep the senate in 2020, even if a Democrat ousts Trump. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 04:09:36 AM What's Tester's shot to hang on? 82% chance of winning. R margin quite a bit larger than last check--where are the remaining votes coming from? hmm maybe Missoula. Obviously it can't be Gallatin Tester is #populist so he will win garfield county due to a recount but will lose Gallatin due to it being a Romney Clinton county. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 04:11:19 AM I gotta turn in. Things feel bleak for Sinema in AZ. Hope I wake up to a surprise.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 04:20:34 AM NM-02 seems to be narrowing. Maybe Xochitl has a chance to win there still.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 04:21:23 AM Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination. I might have the counties wrong, but if they stay how they currently are I don't see where the votes comes from. A narrow McSally win or loss in Maricopa County would be enough for her to win overall, given that she is holding the Republican rural counties. If she is only meeting the benchmark in the rural areas I would say she loses consider this election has really polarized on a urban suburban divide. You are right. 93% of the precincts are reporting at this point, according to the Huffington Post (though I've read about the extra ballots that will have to be counted). I also read that the remaining precincts are ones located in Maricopa County. Maricopa County is currently really tight, Sinema up 452,208 to 449,990. That's with about 83% in. About 14% left to come in from Apache County as well, so far that county has split about 60/40 to Sinema. There is still hope for Sinema yet. But we will see. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 07, 2018, 04:24:49 AM AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.
We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 04:25:54 AM AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated. We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week. Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 04:31:35 AM Imagine of Hilldog was president now. The senate would be a disaster. Tester, Brown, Manchin and maybe Stebenow would be gone. Possible Kaine's old seat as well. However, I think there is a chance the Republicans keep the senate in 2020, even if a Democrat ousts Trump. And because of the gerrymandering, it's possible that Republicans could pick up the House at the same time. The Republicans would then get 17 days of the trifecta before the Democratic President took office. Something vaugely like this happened before. In 2000, the Democrats picked up the Senate for 17 days. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2018, 04:32:24 AM AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated. We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week. So no point staying up for a call then Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 04:34:46 AM AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated. We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week. Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen. Not surprising. Though it is something that Ducey won by such a landslide margin-roughly 18 percentage points. McSally is running about 9% behind him thus far. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 04:35:40 AM AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated. We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week. Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen. What about MT-Sen? Do we expect a call for that soon? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 04:39:48 AM AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated. We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week. Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen. What about MT-Sen? Do we expect a call for that soon? Whenever Missoula and Cascade (Great Falls) Counties get their votes in, probably. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 04:47:18 AM AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated. We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week. Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen. Not surprising. Though it is something that Ducey won by such a landslide margin-roughly 18 percentage points. McSally is running about 9% behind him thus far. Does the 98% counted figure referenced on the SoS website exclude these untabulated votes? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 07, 2018, 04:59:42 AM AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated. We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week. Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen. Not surprising. Though it is something that Ducey won by such a landslide margin-roughly 18 percentage points. McSally is running about 9% behind him thus far. Does the 98% counted figure referenced on the SoS website exclude these untabulated votes? Based on this I'm assuming not: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/415434-no-winner-will-be-announced-in-arizona-senate-race-on-tuesday-night Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 05:01:29 AM Democrats need a Hail Mary in a Montana and Arizona
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: President Johnson on November 07, 2018, 05:02:48 AM Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 05:02:53 AM Tester is #populist so he will win garfield county due to a recount but will lose Gallatin due to it being a Romney Clinton county. LMFAO Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 05:04:13 AM Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done? There's an automatic recount. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 05:05:09 AM Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done? Yes, so far as I know. Nelson trails Scott by ~39,000 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting (per Huffington Post). Unless if a miracle occurs with absentee ballots or the like (as with the automatic recount), Scott has won. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 05:07:41 AM Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done? Yes, so far as I now. Nelson trails Scott by ~39,000 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting (per Huffington Post). Unless if a miracle occurs with absentee ballots or the like (as with the automatic recount), Scott has won. I think the 2000 Presidential was down to at most a few thousand at this point. Of course that was after Gore retracted his concession. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 05:09:02 AM Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done? Yes, so far as I now. Nelson trails Scott by ~39,000 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting (per Huffington Post). Unless if a miracle occurs with absentee ballots or the like (as with the automatic recount), Scott has won. I think the 2000 Presidential was down to at most a few thousand at this point. You are right. And Bush only won Florida by 537 votes in the end. Scott is leading by much more than that. And DeSantis is up by ~60,000 votes over Gillum. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 05:44:56 AM Pete Sessions when interviewed in a December 2016 by the Dallas Morning News article asking about the significance of his race in 2018 given than Hillary carried it.
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-politics/2016/12/12/sessions-culberson-see-districts-turn-blue-presidential-race-age-trump-signal-long-term-trouble “If the Democrats want to think they can take their party, that is dead, and resurrect something in Texas 32, bring it on,” he said. The more immediate concern, for Sessions and other incumbents, is the threat of a primary challenger. “I don’t think there’s any doubt in anybody’s mind that, by and large, these races are decided in primaries,” said Sessions. Ok b**** Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on November 07, 2018, 05:49:17 AM Looks like most of the vote came in for Arizona with 99% reporting based on the new york times and McSally is ahead by .8%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 05:53:36 AM Arizona going to be called soon despite a razor thin margin
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 05:54:04 AM Looks like most of the vote came in for Arizona with 99% reporting based on the new york times and McSally is ahead by .8%. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html CNN has the same exact vote numbers, 847,021-832,441 McSally, as NYT. But, CNN says only 75% of the vote in. I'm not sure who's right and who's wrong, but someone is... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 05:56:48 AM Looks like most of the vote came in for Arizona with 99% reporting based on the new york times and McSally is ahead by .8%. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html CNN has the same exact vote numbers, 847,021-832,441 McSally, as NYT. But, CNN says only 75% of the vote in. I'm not sure who's right and who's wrong, but someone is... CNN is probably counting absentees against the percent reporting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 05:58:35 AM Looks like most of the vote came in for Arizona with 99% reporting based on the new york times and McSally is ahead by .8%. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html CNN has the same exact vote numbers, 847,021-832,441 McSally, as NYT. But, CNN says only 75% of the vote in. I'm not sure who's right and who's wrong, but someone is... CNN is probably counting absentees against the percent reporting. You're probably right. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 06:07:22 AM There goes Arizona
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 07, 2018, 06:13:03 AM Again, Arizona is too early to call right now. It really depends where those absentees came from.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 06:28:23 AM Yeah, I would say its to early to call as well
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 07, 2018, 06:42:04 AM Arizona going to be called soon despite a razor thin margin What part of "there are 100k+ ballots that they announced BEFORE the election they would not count until more than a week had passed" is not clear? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Shadows on November 07, 2018, 06:54:02 AM Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016.
If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone. 4-5% certainly isn't a wave. What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 07, 2018, 06:55:26 AM Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016. What are you going on? We have a few million votes in California we won't see for many days to come. It would be surprising for Dems to have taken the House with a 4% swing when we were told it needed >5%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: mgop on November 07, 2018, 07:01:56 AM 5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 07:02:09 AM Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016. If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone. 4-5% certainly isn't a wave. What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV. I'm not sure where you are getting the 4% figure, but if they are up 4% right now, they'll probably be up 7% once all the votes are counted, especially out of CA. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 07:12:55 AM 5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning. MT is projected to go D, and AZ isnt done yet, but yeah, pretty good for you guys. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 07:14:26 AM 5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning. Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: President Johnson on November 07, 2018, 07:17:30 AM Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016. If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone. 4-5% certainly isn't a wave. What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV. To a degree yes, but Trump's approvals are relatively high in Florida compared to other key states. As I said earlier, I think he keeps the sunshine state in 2020 regardless of the national outcome (unless there is a 2008 Obama style victory for Democrats). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 07, 2018, 07:20:45 AM Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016. If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone. 4-5% certainly isn't a wave. What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV. To a degree yes, but Trump's approvals are relatively high in Florida compared to other key states. As I said earlier, I think he keeps the sunshine state in 2020 regardless of the national outcome (unless there is a 2008 Obama style victory for Democrats). Yes, Trump's strength with Florida Man is the mirror of his weakness with educated suburbanites. It's a state that fits him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 07:34:29 AM 5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning. Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts. Huh. We still have two out, each way. The House met Democratic expectations, but did not exceed them. The Senate exceeded Republican expectations. Three governorships are up in the air (WI, GA, CN). One flipped with a lot of GOP support. BTW: My pick was 229 D. :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 07:37:55 AM 5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning. Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts. Huh. We still have two out, each way. The House met Democratic expectations, but did not exceed them. The Senate exceeded Republican expectations. Three governorships are up in the air (WI, GA, CT). One flipped with a lot of GOP support. BTW: My pick was 229 D. :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 07:42:25 AM 5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning. Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts. Huh. We still have two out, each way. The House met Democratic expectations, but did not exceed them. The Senate exceeded Republican expectations. Three governorships are up in the air (WI, GA, CT). One flipped with a lot of GOP support. BTW: My pick was 229 D. :) dcalled, but he hasn't conceded and I think there are absentee votes out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 07:45:38 AM According to NYT:
FL 54% chance of going Republican AZ 59% chance of going Republican Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 07:53:07 AM According to NYT: FL 54% chance of going Republican AZ 59% chance of going Republican Can someone explain how there's still such a non-negligible chance that the Republicans lose these states? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 07:56:00 AM According to NYT: FL 54% chance of going Republican AZ 59% chance of going Republican Can someone explain how there's still such a non-negligible chance that the Republicans lose these states? How AZ is more likely to go Republican I don't know. Florida is done, but Arizona looks as if there are a significant number of votes outstanding - at least, according to the SoS. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 07:59:36 AM We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020.
If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible. There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely. What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power. This would only require 11-20 vote shift. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on November 07, 2018, 08:03:12 AM We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020. If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible. There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely. What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power. This would only require 11-20 vote shift. Unless something changes, I feel good about our chances to take back the House in 2020 as long as Trump/the Republican nominee isn't getting blown out. Democrats got several fluky wins tonight (SC-1, OK-5, NY-11) and I don't think they will stay this strong in Southern suburbs (GA-6, TX-7, TX-32) forever. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 07, 2018, 08:04:19 AM We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020. If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible. There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely. What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power. This would only require 11-20 vote shift. Unless something changes, I feel good about our chances to take back the House in 2020 as long as Trump/the Republican nominee isn't getting blown out. Democrats got several fluky wins tonight (SC-1, OK-5, NY-11) and I don't think they will stay this strong in Southern suburbs (GA-6, TX-7, TX-32) forever. These areas are only getting more diverse though so it bodes well for Dems. The other three I agree with except NY-11, that could stay Dem. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 08:04:50 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.
That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 07, 2018, 08:07:29 AM 5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning. Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts. I hardly think it's the Republicans moving goalposts. Quite the opposite from most people here. Needing just 10 seats to retake the House from a wave year is more than doable. What they did last night was potentially seal the Senate in their favour for years to come. If they would have taken one more, I would go as far as to say that they have the Senate locked up for the next six years. As it stands, the Democrats will have an uphill climb to prevent that power claim. Those eight plus years are going to be incredibly painful for the activists in this country. Keep dreaming only to be shot down time and time again - and then you're a decade older without seeing any tangible accomplishments for your movement. I'll take my new courts completely stacked. All eyes on Judiciary for the next two years. Have fun with pointless investigations and stopping gerrymandering if you can. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 08:07:47 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 08:10:27 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate. I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 08:16:39 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate. I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate Fair enough, but as a left leaning Indy, I'm satisfied with taking the House and a number of governorships. Scott Walker losing was delightful. The house isn’t a big enough majority to feel like it can be held for any longer than 2 years. Losing Florida and Ohio Governors really hurts. The Senate is gone for a long time. I’m trying not tone negative but feels like a gut punch. Worst of all I’m starting to accept that my country is supportive of the Trump way... which makes me absolutely sick to my stomach to think about Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 08:18:32 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate. I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate Fair enough, but as a left leaning Indy, I'm satisfied with taking the House and a number of governorships. Scott Walker losing was delightful. The house isn’t a big enough majority to feel like it can be held for any longer than 2 years. Losing Florida and Ohio Governors really hurts. The Senate is gone for a long time. I’m trying not tone negative but feels like a gut punch. Worst of all I’m starting to accept that my country is supportive of the Trump way... which makes me absolutely sick to my stomach to think about Yeah... something tells me it doesn't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 08:21:11 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate. I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 07, 2018, 08:23:45 AM Dems will keep the House, in 2020, the blue Senate map insulate our gains. Cory Booker and Martin Heinrich can help secure Pelosi leadership. And Senate is doable with ME,CO, NC and AZ and KS
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 08:27:01 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate. I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate Except that it appears Tester will win in Montana. Really, I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but it basically boils down to being incorrect on the House and picking a GOP Senate correctly but being off in terms of numbers. That's not all that impressive a prediction. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 08:27:12 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate. I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate Not trying to be rude, but can you read? Almost all votes in, Tester lost Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 07, 2018, 08:27:35 AM Ne ego si iterum eodem modo uicero, sine ullo milite Epirum reuertar.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 07, 2018, 08:30:43 AM We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020. If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible. There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely. What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power. This would only require 11-20 vote shift. Unless something changes, I feel good about our chances to take back the House in 2020 as long as Trump/the Republican nominee isn't getting blown out. Democrats got several fluky wins tonight (SC-1, OK-5, NY-11) and I don't think they will stay this strong in Southern suburbs (GA-6, TX-7, TX-32) forever. Republicans aren't taking back the House if Trump loses. They need him to win to take back the House. I may agree with you on SC-01, but most of the seats Dems picked up are ones that are only getting more diverse (i.e. Dem) unlike 2006/2008 where Dems picked up a bunch of rural blue dog seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 08:33:45 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 08:34:32 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate. I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate Not trying to be rude, but can you read? Almost all votes in, Tester lost Perhaps you should see where these voters are, and what the margin is. Ill wait for the votes to be counted there before making a declaration like that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 08:35:20 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. Florida is pretty well sealed IMO, but I agree that people should wait until all of the numbers are in before congratulating themselves on predictions that they only got half-right. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 07, 2018, 08:36:04 AM Ne ego si iterum eodem modo uicero, sine ullo milite Epirum reuertar. If that were the case, Trump would be gloating about it on Twitter right now. Of course, he is gloating, but his heart isn't in it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 08:42:50 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 07, 2018, 08:47:06 AM If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer. LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 08:50:18 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over But that's how you're supposed to determine who is likely to win when there are uncounted votes out there. I'm not saying Tester is going to win - the New York Times model is. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 08:51:32 AM If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer. LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close. He's not seeing it. He's spreading fake news to support his narrative of Democratic haplessness. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BundouYMB on November 07, 2018, 08:52:33 AM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over Are you illiterate? 18% of the vote is out and almost all of it is Missoula. You already made yourself look like a clown with your moronic House prediction, so just shut up before you embarrass yourself any further. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 08:53:39 AM The house isn’t a big enough majority to feel like it can be held for any longer than 2 years. Losing Florida and Ohio Governors really hurts. The Senate is gone for a long time. I’m trying not tone negative but feels like a gut punch. Worst of all I’m starting to accept that my country is supportive of the Trump way... which makes me absolutely sick to my stomach to think about I'm going to disagree. I think it is a matter of fairness. Menendez, for example, was savaged; he won. I would have voted for him because of how he was treated. We saw an attempt in the Senate to get Kavanaugh; 4-5 of the people that went along with that are not there anymore. The efforts to demonize Trump are really counterproductive. Case in point, the claims of antisemitism against Trump. He attacks Soros, who contributes a lot of money nationally and internationally to liberal causes (and some that conservatives favor, like Solidarity) and liberal's claim he's antisemitic. Liberals claim that Trump is responsible for increased hate crimes, yet the statistics show that the increase stated under Obama (and don't seem to have a correlation to him being president either). The conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're wrong." Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil." It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals. The American people don't like that. You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 08:54:07 AM So the final number is probably 54, but could theoretically fall as low as 51, depending on how Arizona, Florida, and the Mississippi runoff go.
And maybe the most likely is actually 53. Not sure what to believe on Arizona. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 08:55:36 AM the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're wrong." Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil." It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals. The American people don't like that. You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left. Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vern on November 07, 2018, 08:56:18 AM When will we get a call in AZ and MT?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 08:56:44 AM If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer. LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close. CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points. It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 08:58:40 AM When will we get a call in AZ and MT? Not before Thursday or Friday at the earliest in Arizona because of all of the uncounted absentees, and that one could still go either way. Montana could conceivably be called today once they start counting again, but it will probably be called for Tester, not Rosendale. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: UWS on November 07, 2018, 09:02:17 AM I actually think that Arizona could be called soon enough. RCP says that 98 % of the vote in Arizona are reported and McSally is ahead by 1.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 09:02:51 AM If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer. LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close. CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points. It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction. I guess I’m “embarrassing myself” by stating the obvious. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on November 07, 2018, 09:03:23 AM If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer. LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close. CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points. It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction. It won't be a R victory, lol. All of the outstanding vote is in pretty blue counties. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 09:04:58 AM the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're wrong." Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil." It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals. The American people don't like that. You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left. Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right? Even they do not do it at the same level. Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil. Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that. It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan." Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 09:06:14 AM If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer. LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close. CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points. It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction. Bear in mind that Missoula is still stuck at 73 percent reporting -- but you are correct, it's too early to outright call it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 09:08:14 AM the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're wrong." Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil." It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals. The American people don't like that. You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left. Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right? Even they do not do it at the same level. Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil. Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that. It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan." And to be fair, the Westboro Baptist Church is like it's own political party: they hate EVERYBODY. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 09:08:56 AM If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer. LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close. CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points. It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction. It won't be a R victory, lol. All of the outstanding vote is in pretty blue counties. Quoted for truth. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 09:09:09 AM the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're wrong." Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil." It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals. The American people don't like that. You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left. Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right? Even they do not do it at the same level. Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil. Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that. It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan." You've gotta be kidding me....you must live in a bubble. Ever see quotes like this? Quote In an interview with Sean Hannity, Eric Trump lashed out at Democrats for what he described as obstructing his father’s agenda. “I’ve never seen hatred like this. To me, they’re not even people. It’s so, so sad. Morality’s just gone, morals have flown out the window, and we deserve so much better than this as a country,” he said. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 09:13:55 AM the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're wrong." Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil." It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals. The American people don't like that. You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left. Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right? Even they do not do it at the same level. Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil. Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that. It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan." You've gotta be kidding me....you must live in a bubble. Ever see quotes like this? Quote In an interview with Sean Hannity, Eric Trump lashed out at Democrats for what he described as obstructing his father’s agenda. “I’ve never seen hatred like this. To me, they’re not even people. It’s so, so sad. Morality’s just gone, morals have flown out the window, and we deserve so much better than this as a country,” he said. Yeah this whole "our side would never DREAM of being uncivil! We just want to respectfully talk and discuss ike gentlemen" is ridiculous. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 09:15:59 AM Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 07, 2018, 09:16:25 AM As I said back in June when Sanford lost the primary in SC-1, I'm not surprised the Democrats picked up the seat. The overall demographics here do not support that the Republicans are radically right winged, and many people I came across in my professional and personal life all said if Sanford had won, they'd have voted for him, but not Arrington. She won because GOP turnout in the primary was poor and only the radical base showed up.
If the GOP runs a competent candidate in 2020, I doubt Cunningham holds the seat, but I'm glad our district did the right thing and put Cunningham in Washington. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 07, 2018, 09:17:38 AM As I said back in June when Sanford lost the primary in SC-1, I'm not surprised the Democrats picked up the seat. The overall demographics here do not support that the Republicans are radically right winged, and many people I came across in my professional and personal life all said if Sanford had won, they'd have voted for him, but not Arrington. She won because GOP turnout in the primary was poor and only the radical base showed up. If the GOP runs a competent candidate in 2020, I doubt Cunningham holds the seat, but I'm glad our district did the right thing and put Cunningham in Washington. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 09:18:26 AM Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate. Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election. Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 07, 2018, 09:21:36 AM Ne ego si iterum eodem modo uicero, sine ullo milite Epirum reuertar. If that were the case, Trump would be gloating about it on Twitter right now. Of course, he is gloating, but his heart isn't in it. Whoever said I was thinking only of the Democrats? :P Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 09:23:28 AM Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate. Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election. Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking) I do, but I'm on my phone right now, and I saw it a couple of weeks ago, so i don't have a quick link to post. I'll post it when I do. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 09:30:57 AM As I said back in June when Sanford lost the primary in SC-1, I'm not surprised the Democrats picked up the seat. The overall demographics here do not support that the Republicans are radically right winged, and many people I came across in my professional and personal life all said if Sanford had won, they'd have voted for him, but not Arrington. She won because GOP turnout in the primary was poor and only the radical base showed up. If the GOP runs a competent candidate in 2020, I doubt Cunningham holds the seat, but I'm glad our district did the right thing and put Cunningham in Washington. It is, definitely. The seat is still R+10 PVI, though, so will be tough for Cunningham to hold though not necessarily impossible. Will be dependent to a great degree on the Republican nominee. I wonder if Sanford will consider running again. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 07, 2018, 09:32:09 AM Why is the NYT forecasting it's going to end up 53-47 if they have McSally as the favorite? Or am I missing something?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 07, 2018, 09:33:46 AM Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate. Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election. Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking) I do, but I'm on my phone right now, and I saw it a couple of weeks ago, so i don't have a quick link to post. I'll post it when I do. This is basically impossible for me to believe when "Blue Wave" was a completely mainstream meme. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vern on November 07, 2018, 09:35:51 AM Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate. Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election. Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking) I do, but I'm on my phone right now, and I saw it a couple of weeks ago, so i don't have a quick link to post. I'll post it when I do. This is basically impossible for me to believe when "Blue Wave" was a completely mainstream meme. Right, The Democrats underperformed what the mainstream were saying they were going to do. At the end of the day it was a normal Midterm results. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 09:41:54 AM Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane. I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 09:43:48 AM This is when they stopped counting MT and why Tester is likely gonna win:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SuperCow on November 07, 2018, 09:44:07 AM Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane. Not really. It's easy to believe that somebody who didn't like Hillary Clinton might vote for a different Democrat. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SuperCow on November 07, 2018, 09:47:35 AM I actually think that Arizona could be called soon enough. RCP says that 98 % of the vote in Arizona are reported and McSally is ahead by 1. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/ Does anyone think that if Martha McSally wins she should thank Angela Green for winning 2% of the vote in a race with less than a 1% margin of victory? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 07, 2018, 09:50:50 AM Dems are happy to take the House and Senate in 2020 and 2022 are Dem years. This is the peak for the GOP
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 07, 2018, 09:51:31 AM Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate. Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election. Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking) In the last Gallup poll, Americans expected the Republicans to take the House by 50-44...despite favoring the Democratic candidates by 54-43. Source (https://news.gallup.com/poll/244517/democrats-worried-republicans-election.aspx). Interestingly, Gallup has asked this question in several previous midterms going back to 1946, and this is the first time the public's prediction has been wrong. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 07, 2018, 09:53:57 AM Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane. I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020. I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point. You may not be too far off base here. I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 09:54:24 AM Dems are happy to take the House and Senate in 2020 and 2022 are Dem years. This is the peak for the GOP Stop lol..... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vespucci on November 07, 2018, 09:55:12 AM Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane. I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020. I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point. You may not be too far off base here. I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems. FL is still a Presidential swing state, the Dems just can’t turn anyone out in midterms. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 09:56:00 AM Dems are happy to take the House and Senate in 2020 and 2022 are Dem years. This is the peak for the GOP Stop lol..... Yeah it's a BETTER map in 2020 for Dems with the Republicans on defense, but it's ludicrous to say that 2020 will be a Dem year outright. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 09:56:03 AM Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane. I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020. I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point. You may not be too far off base here. I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 07, 2018, 09:57:21 AM Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 07, 2018, 09:59:26 AM Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Inmate Trump on November 07, 2018, 10:00:44 AM So what is actually wrong with the polls?
Why do they seem to keep getting things wrong? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 10:02:36 AM Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism. "We took the House, but the Senate is lost until the year 3000. Maybe then we'll be able to flip Saturn, but Venus is a Longshot Republican stronghold." Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 07, 2018, 10:03:01 AM Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism. "We took the House, but the Senate is lost until the year 3000. Maybe then we'll be able to flip Saturn, but Venus is a Longshot Republican stronghold." LOL Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torie on November 07, 2018, 10:05:53 AM I am not sure why there is much of an argument about Montana. The math is below, assuming that what is out in the counties with uncounted votes, comes in with the same split as the votes previously counted in the county. All four counties with uncounted votes went for Tester, by substantial margins.
() (https://ibb.co/c8dHQA) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 10:09:30 AM If Cuomo wants to keeps the GOP-IDC coalition in the NY State Senate, they'd need 9 state senators to flip now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 10:11:14 AM NYT thinks the final margin in Florida is Scott winning by around 6,000, but there are enough error bars on that for Nelson to still have an outside shot.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 10:11:41 AM Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 10:11:43 AM If Cuomo wants to keeps the GOP-IDC coalition in the NY State Senate, they'd need 9 state senators to flip now. Why would he want that? Democrats won the NY Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: jamestroll on November 07, 2018, 10:13:03 AM There is a divergence in the collar counties still in Illinois.
Democrats won around 57% of the combined congressional vote in DuPage county while statewide Democrats were only scoring modest wins. Federal vs local. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Kodak on November 07, 2018, 10:13:14 AM McBath and Woodall have taken the leads in GA-6 and GA-7.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 10:13:16 AM Per CNN: BillNelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott. I thought he conceded? This race is so confusing. Please let Nelson somehow pull it off... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 07, 2018, 10:13:23 AM What ballots are left in Florida? Provisionals and that's it?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 10:14:13 AM What ballots are left in Florida? Provisionals and that's it? Apparently over 100,000 ballots still uncounted, with a strong Democratic lean on them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 07, 2018, 10:16:16 AM Why is the NYT forecasting it's going to end up 53-47 if they have McSally as the favorite? Or am I missing something? Not sure. Local reports here are saying that there could be as many as 1/4 the total vote (maybe ~500K) still uncounted. I recall Clinton gaining a few % points post election day in 2016 so I believe the outcome of this race is still unknown. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 10:19:13 AM So what is actually wrong with the polls? Why do they seem to keep getting things wrong? Two big factors: horrible response rates, and the fact that you can only model the electorate on elections that have already happened, so emerging trends get underestimated. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 10:19:40 AM NYT thinks the final margin in Florida is Scott winning by around 6,000, but there are enough error bars on that for Nelson to still have an outside shot. So if accurate, Scott wins by 0.07 percent. Geez, it's almost as though Florida produces some harrowing nailbiters or something. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Kodak on November 07, 2018, 10:19:47 AM In the aggregate, the prognosticators did a pretty good job this year. A lot of the toss ups haven't been called yet, but only 3 lean/likely seats (NY-11, OK-1, and SC-1) voted against their predicted winner.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 10:26:31 AM What ballots are left in Florida? Provisionals and that's it? Apparently over 100,000 ballots still uncounted, with a strong Democratic lean on them. On-the-day absentees. I think it will be around a 10k margin when they are counted. Not enough for a recount to make a difference but hard to be totally certain on the pre-recount figures. Plus provisionals of course. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 07, 2018, 10:28:07 AM What ballots are left in Florida? Provisionals and that's it? Apparently over 100,000 ballots still uncounted, with a strong Democratic lean on them. On-the-day absentees. I think it will be around a 10k margin when they are counted. Not enough for a recount to make a difference but hard to be totally certain on the pre-recount figures. Plus provisionals of course. Keep in mind though that Nikki Fried, the Dem candidate for Ag Commissioner is only down 17,000 votes. There could be enough votes for her. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: President Johnson on November 07, 2018, 10:29:25 AM This is when they stopped counting MT and why Tester is likely gonna win: Please let this be true. I don't want to lose beautiful flawless #populist <3 Tester. Actually this shouldn't be so close; I mean Steve Bullock won fair and square in 2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 07, 2018, 10:30:41 AM As I said back in June when Sanford lost the primary in SC-1, I'm not surprised the Democrats picked up the seat. The overall demographics here do not support that the Republicans are radically right winged, and many people I came across in my professional and personal life all said if Sanford had won, they'd have voted for him, but not Arrington. She won because GOP turnout in the primary was poor and only the radical base showed up. If the GOP runs a competent candidate in 2020, I doubt Cunningham holds the seat, but I'm glad our district did the right thing and put Cunningham in Washington. It is, but SC-1 is gerrymandered to where a lot of the african american areas in the north are in Clyburn's district. Cunningham won Charleston by 17% which is what gave him the election. I expect SC-1 will be more competitive in the future. Arrington is just not a good candidate for this area and when she won the primary, I had a feeling the seat would flip. Sanford would have held the seat. She vowed this morning to run again in 2 years. I really hope the GOP puts up a credible challenger to her because I have no idea if Cunningham can hold the seat in a presidential year. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 07, 2018, 10:33:56 AM What ballots are left in Florida? Provisionals and that's it? Apparently over 100,000 ballots still uncounted, with a strong Democratic lean on them. On-the-day absentees. I think it will be around a 10k margin when they are counted. Not enough for a recount to make a difference but hard to be totally certain on the pre-recount figures. Plus provisionals of course. Keep in mind though that Nikki Fried, the Dem candidate for Ag Commissioner is only down 17,000 votes. There could be enough votes for her. Correction, she's down 12,500 votes. There may be enough for her. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 10:36:21 AM So as an aside, after everyone predicted that brown would utterly demolishes opponent, he gained less than half a percentage point in the popular vote from his 2012 win over Josh Mandel. What a letdown.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 07, 2018, 10:39:34 AM McBath is up over Handel again according to NYT. CNN as well.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 07, 2018, 10:39:56 AM So as an aside, after everyone predicted that brown would utterly demolishes opponent, he gained less than half a percentage point in the popular vote from his 2012 win over Josh Mandel. What a letdown. I think it’s pretty clear Ohio is an Atlas blue state at this point, and it’s hard to see how it comes back to even being purple. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 07, 2018, 10:40:08 AM Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane. I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020. I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point. You may not be too far off base here. I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems. FL is still a Presidential swing state, the Dems just can’t turn anyone out in midterms. The only time Dems have actually "won" in a Presidential year in Florida since 1996 was when Obama was on the ballot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 10:40:33 AM So, because the New York Times is so desperately behind in reporting results, approximately how many seats did the Democrats pick up in the house last night?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vern on November 07, 2018, 10:42:11 AM Republicans can take away one thing from last night. Every race matter and people want to hear about the issues and not talking points. We need to field better candidates.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: President Johnson on November 07, 2018, 10:42:48 AM Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott. I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 07, 2018, 10:43:57 AM Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott. I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester. The margin has since dropped to 30,000 votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 07, 2018, 10:44:03 AM So, because the New York Times is so desperately behind in reporting results, approximately how many seats did the Democrats pick up in the house last night? Somewhere in the 33-35 range based on what's outstanding. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Inmate Trump on November 07, 2018, 10:44:13 AM McBath is up over Handel again according to NYT. CNN as well. Is it enough to avoid a runoff though? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 10:45:29 AM So, uh.
WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 10:45:37 AM Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott. I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester. There is still a quarter of the vote not reported in Arizona. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 07, 2018, 10:45:52 AM Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott. I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester. Sinema still has a shot. There are approximately 500K ballots still left to be counted (early vote). Clinton gained a couple percentage points post election day in 2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 10:46:17 AM Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott. I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester. The margin has since dropped to 30,000 votes. Someone just said that there is a ton of absentee and provisional ballots too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 07, 2018, 10:46:53 AM McBath is up over Handel again according to NYT. CNN as well. Is it enough to avoid a runoff though? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 10:47:25 AM McBath is up over Handel again according to NYT. CNN as well. Is it enough to avoid a runoff though? Only 2 candidates. No one else to hold both below 50; there will be no runoff. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 10:47:26 AM So, uh. WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03. Trump's "God like status" in WV-03 was too much it seems. WV-03 was Manchin's worst district, was his best in '12 IIRC? Didn't polls forecast Manchin winning it by 20+ points? Did the Trump visits make a difference? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 10:47:53 AM So, uh. WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03. Yeah...Ojeda went down in flames. Well, at least WV will very likely be losing a congressional seat after the next census. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 10:49:34 AM So, uh. WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03. Even in West Virginia we saw the urban-suburban/rural divide. Manchin won all of the counties with decent sized cities in them (Kanawha, Cabell, Monongalia, Ohio, Marion) plus the DC suburban county (Jefferson), while losing many places in traditional Democratic coal country. This bled down ballot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 10:54:10 AM So, uh. WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03. Even in West Virginia we saw the urban-suburban/rural divide. Manchin won all of the counties with decent sized cities in them (Kanawha, Cabell, Monongalia, Ohio, Marion) plus the DC suburban county (Jefferson), while losing many places in traditional Democratic coal country. This bled down ballot. Yep, its official, the D suburban and R rural trend is completely real, and is continuing. TBH, I wouldnt be surprised if in the 2020 guber race, the D wins while losing the 3rd. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 10:54:22 AM Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 10:55:04 AM Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am". That’s...in an hour, right? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 10:55:10 AM Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am". Half a million? That’s a typo right Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 07, 2018, 10:55:13 AM Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am". Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 10:55:33 AM Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am". Is that 10am MST? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 07, 2018, 10:56:29 AM Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am". Half a million? That’s a typo right Nope. potentially 1/4 of the total vote. The ~500K are from early voting. Good chance it helps Sinema. Clinton gained a few percentage points from counting post election day in 2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 10:56:39 AM Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am". Half a million? That’s a typo right That's some Florida 2000 level of uncounted votes haha Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 07, 2018, 10:57:07 AM Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am". Half a million? That’s a typo right Closer to 480k I think but yes Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 10:57:18 AM Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am". Is that 10am MST? Think so. Source: https://twitter.com/brahmresnik Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 11:00:46 AM Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott. I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester. Arizona? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 07, 2018, 11:10:12 AM That's way more early votes than 2016. That's a good sign for Sinema.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 07, 2018, 11:20:11 AM That's way more early votes than 2016. That's a good sign for Sinema. Are these votes supposed to lean that D? We don't know for sure, but it's possible. Clinton continued to decrease the margin in AZ in 2016 after election day by a couple percent. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 07, 2018, 11:20:56 AM That's way more early votes than 2016. That's a good sign for Sinema. Are these votes supposed to lean that D? If it's Maricopa and AZ-01, that means that there's potentially swaths of Pima still out, where Sinema has been running up margins. The Maricopa total is the big question -- essentially, who's voting early? Title: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: The Vorlon on November 07, 2018, 11:28:02 AM Rosendale is ahead by 3097 votes.
"Assuming" the SOS site is correct and there are only 4311 votes yet to be counted, Tester would needed 85.8% of the ballots to go his way to win. JON TESTER 199175 MATT ROSENDALE 202262 RICK BRECKENRIDGE 11891 TOTAL VOTES COUNTED 413328 Total Turnout 417639 Remaining Votes 4311 Rosendale lead 3087 Tester Needs to win 3699 85.80% Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on November 07, 2018, 11:28:27 AM How long is it going to take to get the rest of MT in?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 07, 2018, 11:28:38 AM Apparently theres 100,000 uncounted ballots from Pima county. Sinema won that county by 12 points. I think some of you were far too quick writing Sinema's obituaries last night.
Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 11:30:05 AM Where do you see the 4,311 number?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 07, 2018, 11:30:50 AM Why is the West notoriously horrible at counting votes on time?
Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: Mr. Smith on November 07, 2018, 11:31:46 AM Rosendale is ahead by 3097 votes. "Assuming" the SOS site is correct and there are only 4311 votes yet to be counted, Tester would needed 85.8% of the ballots to go his way to win. JON TESTER 199175 MATT ROSENDALE 202262 RICK BRECKENRIDGE 11891 TOTAL VOTES COUNTED 413328 Total Turnout 417639 Remaining Votes 4311 Rosendale lead 3087 Tester Needs to win 3699 85.80% 85% could very well happen, considering what's left is in Gallatin and Missoula. I mean yeah, I'm not gonna be surprised if that doesn't happen, but far from implausible. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 11:32:06 AM So what's the story with AZ? There is people saying there is still like 1/4 of the vote left to count.
Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: Thatkat04 on November 07, 2018, 11:32:54 AM The Montana SoS website has Tester ahead right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 07, 2018, 11:33:11 AM What is the current House vote total in NC? I know that their gerrymander was so effective not a single seat switched there, but I'd like to see just how effective.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 07, 2018, 11:33:42 AM Also, Tester just took the lead on CNN.
Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 11:33:54 AM CNN has Tester winning with 99% reporting 213,825-211,795.
Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: GMantis on November 07, 2018, 11:35:00 AM And according to the SOS site, none of the precincts in Missoula and Gallatin (the two largest Democratic counties in Montana) have finished reporting.
Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on November 07, 2018, 11:35:41 AM This aged well.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 11:37:00 AM Why is the West notoriously horrible at counting votes on time? We gotta ride the votes in on horseback Red Dead Redemption style. Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: Perlen vor den Schweinen on November 07, 2018, 11:37:00 AM It didn't even take 10 minutes. ...though with how Democratic fortunes have been, maybe this could flip again. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 07, 2018, 11:37:07 AM What is the current House vote total in NC? I know that their gerrymander was so effective not a single seat switched there, but I'd like to see just how effective. Barely held on to NC-09 and NC-02/NC-13 were 5-6 point wins. Bad night for the NCGOP altogether though. Their supreme court packing scheme backfired hugely and now Democrats have a bigger majority on the state Supreme Court, so I'd expect challenges to the Congressional and legislative maps at the state level. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 11:37:47 AM TESTER, YES, YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 07, 2018, 11:38:04 AM Looks like Nelson's requested recount has to be completed by Saturday at noon, barring a historic tabulation error there is no way a recount nets Nelson 34,000 votes. Scott has this
Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: Comrade Funk on November 07, 2018, 11:41:49 AM ()
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhhmuPKe6w4 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 07, 2018, 11:42:13 AM Looks like Nelson's requested recount has to be completed by Saturday at noon, barring a historic tabulation error there is no way a recount nets Nelson 34,000 votes. Scott has this Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 11:42:34 AM Ugh, the amount of races literally within like 0.5% is insane.
The Gina Ortiz Jones/Will Hurd race especially. She was *so* close Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 07, 2018, 11:42:55 AM Ugh, the amount of races literally within like 0.5% is insane. The Gina Ortiz Jones/Will Hurd race especially. She was *so* close Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 07, 2018, 11:42:55 AM So if Tester wins(looking more and more likely) and Sinema pulls it out with all the ballots left, than a Dem +36 in the House and a Rep +2 in the Senate would be a pretty decent night for democrats all things considered.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 11:43:08 AM What is the current House vote total in NC? I know that their gerrymander was so effective not a single seat switched there, but I'd like to see just how effective. Barely held on to NC-09 and NC-02/NC-13 were 5-6 point wins. Bad night for the NCGOP altogether though. Their supreme court packing scheme backfired hugely and now Democrats have a bigger majority on the state Supreme Court, so I'd expect challenges to the Congressional and legislative maps at the state level. NC-09 still hasn't been called, 3% of the vote still to come in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 11:44:10 AM I'm kind of shocked to see Harder and Porter down in CA, but there's still a ton of CA votes left, right?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 07, 2018, 11:44:52 AM NC-09 still hasn't been called, 3% of the vote still to come in. Oh ok, cool. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 11:46:21 AM NC-09 still hasn't been called, 3% of the vote still to come in. Oh ok, cool. Though it does seem to be an uphill climb, McCready is down by ~2,000. It all depends on where the missing votes are from. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 07, 2018, 11:50:28 AM So if Tester wins(looking more and more likely) and Sinema pulls it out with all the ballots left, than a Dem +36 in the House and a Rep +2 in the Senate would be a pretty decent night for democrats all things considered. If you’d told me that was the number I’d have been okay with it on Monday... provided that Rick Scott wasn’t part of that +2 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 11:50:57 AM Also, justice for Shalala that she was the 2nd call of the night.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 11:53:34 AM McCready still has a shot? That's good news. Was sad that his was so close too.
I'd imagine Ortiz Jones can ask for a recount. I think it's literally within like 0.2%. Also, when are they going to call McBath? She's out of the 0.5 range at 0.6 right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 07, 2018, 11:55:25 AM Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 11:57:49 AM What is the current House vote total in NC? I know that their gerrymander was so effective not a single seat switched there, but I'd like to see just how effective. Barely held on to NC-09 and NC-02/NC-13 were 5-6 point wins. Bad night for the NCGOP altogether though. Their supreme court packing scheme backfired hugely and now Democrats have a bigger majority on the state Supreme Court, so I'd expect challenges to the Congressional and legislative maps at the state level. The pro-ICE Sheriff in Wake County lost too. Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 11:59:06 AM Looks as though Tester has the edge to squeak by again. He needs to write a thank you card to all the third party voters for the third time lmao.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 11:59:42 AM Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county. How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:01:07 PM What is the current House vote total in NC? I know that their gerrymander was so effective not a single seat switched there, but I'd like to see just how effective. Barely held on to NC-09 and NC-02/NC-13 were 5-6 point wins. Bad night for the NCGOP altogether though. Their supreme court packing scheme backfired hugely and now Democrats have a bigger majority on the state Supreme Court, so I'd expect challenges to the Congressional and legislative maps at the state level. The pro-ICE Sheriff in Wake County lost too. Plus the NCGOP lost the supermajority in the NC House, the Senate is still up in the air with Democrats leading in several undeclared races, and the two worst constitutional amendments were rejected (both would given some of the Governor's appointment powers to the legislature). Voter ID passed, but in my opinion, voter ID laws will eventually be ruled unconstitutional/overturned. So I'm not heartbroken over that one. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 12:03:20 PM Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county. How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her? It is literally the swing county of AZ, but the good news is that the absentees are usually much more D, just depends on how much. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 07, 2018, 12:03:29 PM The guy on twitter reporting on how many ballots are left says there are 100,000 in Pima County. Sinema won Pima by 12 points last night. Those are probably favorable for her.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 12:05:59 PM What's fascinating to me is that somehow Dems lost in FL, lost their red states (most of them), but somehow Rosen in NV managed to iMPROVE on Hillary's margin. Was it the latino vote? You'd think if the "rural outnumbers the cities" situation is gonna happen through most of the other states, it'd happen in NV, too? Interesting how she actually is doing better than anticipated. Bodes well for AZ in the end though, I'd think
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 12:08:59 PM As I said at 2am last night, Tester wins this pretty easily.
He's has pull ahead with 88% reporting, and well over 90% of the remaining vote is from his best counties. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 07, 2018, 12:10:02 PM FL is still tightening.
Nelson down 30K. Gillum down 50K. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 07, 2018, 12:10:13 PM Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate. Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election. Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking) I do, but I'm on my phone right now, and I saw it a couple of weeks ago, so i don't have a quick link to post. I'll post it when I do. This is basically impossible for me to believe when "Blue Wave" was a completely mainstream meme. It was in Gallup's last poll. I think on Monday. People thought Republicans were going to hold the House by a 50-44 margin. The numbers for Senate were more lopsided. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 07, 2018, 12:10:40 PM How many Republicans in the house that distanced themselves from Trunp ended up winning?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 07, 2018, 12:12:12 PM How many Republicans in the house that distanced themselves from Trunp ended up winning? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 12:21:51 PM How many Republicans in the house that distanced themselves from Trunp ended up winning? It didn't help that a ton of outside groups that normally endorse Dems endorsed Fitz. Sadly, a lot of people there believe his moderate schtick. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 12:22:12 PM NYT now has McBath +1.0 in GA-06
It would be amazing to see Handel lose tbh. https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-district-6 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 12:24:32 PM So if Tester wins(looking more and more likely) and Sinema pulls it out with all the ballots left, than a Dem +36 in the House and a Rep +2 in the Senate would be a pretty decent night for democrats all things considered. Those are some massive IF’s Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 12:26:05 PM So if Tester wins(looking more and more likely) and Sinema pulls it out with all the ballots left, than a Dem +36 in the House and a Rep +2 in the Senate would be a pretty decent night for democrats all things considered. Those are some massive IF’s Not for MT, mostly for Sinema, but the ballot locations are promising. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MycroftCZ on November 07, 2018, 12:27:08 PM What do we know about Tiffany Bond? For people who voted for her, is Golden likely their number 2?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 12:27:52 PM It's kinda looking like ME-2 is gonna go down to the wire...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 12:28:54 PM Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 12:30:35 PM It's kinda looking like ME-2 is gonna go down to the wire... It will come down to the ranked choice. I imagine Polquin will sue if he loses via ranked choice. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 07, 2018, 12:30:52 PM Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully. And then setting up a potential Supreme Court challenge on the validity of ballot initiatives setting rules for federal elections, which I'm sure John Roberts would love to give his opinion on. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: President Johnson on November 07, 2018, 12:32:40 PM Is there going to be a recout in Texas 23? Gina Ortiz Jones trails Will Hurd by just 0.2 or a few hundred votes. Maybe she can still get this?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 12:33:07 PM Are there many votes still out in places like Mohave and Yavapai? If there are that’s not good news They haven't been mentioned, the only two counties appear to be Maricopa (400-500k) and Pima (100k). That's according to @brahmresnik at the AZ NBC affiliate. Still possible there could be more outstanding in other counties, Pima is probably the best bet for the Dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 12:34:42 PM Is there going to be a recout in Texas 23? Gina Ortiz Jones trails Will Hurd by just 0.2 or a few hundred votes. Maybe she can still get this? I sure hope so. It would be amazing to see her win, especially after all the hot takes of Will Hurd somehow being impenetrable Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Webnicz on November 07, 2018, 12:37:42 PM I will admit the way AZ counts ballots is weird. The 100% reporting indicates ballots cast on Election Day and the number we have now includes early ballots. They look good for sinema considering the GOP had a 7.5% advantage in both categories.
The remaining ballots are “late earlies” which traditionally favor democrats but I’m not putting bets on anything bc a mcsally win is totally possible but traditionally they slightly favor dems, there are more than 500k from Maricopa and Pima. Are there many votes still out in places like Mohave and Yavapai? If there are that’s not good news From what I’ve heard Yavapai and Mohave are essentially done. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 12:37:48 PM Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county. How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her? She currently leads in Maricopa by 1%, but it's way too early to tell if that will extrapolate to the other votes or not That said, assuming these are late-returned absentees or similar, I would guess that they skew more Democratic than the county as a whole. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 12:39:31 PM Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully. And then setting up a potential Supreme Court challenge on the validity of ballot initiatives setting rules for federal elections, which I'm sure John Roberts would love to give his opinion on. Nah, the federal courts have zero desire to wade into that morass. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 12:40:59 PM Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 12:41:16 PM FL is still tightening. Nelson down 30K. Gillum down 50K. Just saw. CNN is ahead of NYT here. That was a net of about 4k for Nelson since first thing this morning. Maybe Nelson can pull it out? Seems unlikely to me but I guess not entirely impossible. Gillum is done, though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 07, 2018, 12:41:38 PM Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ...
At least there were decent gains in the House and among Governors and AZ still has the chance to be won by Sinema. BTW: Is there enough left for Nelson ? (I guess Gillum is done, which is a shame, because the racist DeSantis will now become Governor. And that fu**er Kemp also won). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 07, 2018, 12:42:12 PM Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully. And then setting up a potential Supreme Court challenge on the validity of ballot initiatives setting rules for federal elections, which I'm sure John Roberts would love to give his opinion on. Look at Georgia, John. You still wanna make that claim? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 12:45:41 PM FL is still tightening. Nelson down 30K. Gillum down 50K. Just saw. CNN is ahead of NYT here. That was a net of about 4k for Nelson since first thing this morning. Maybe Nelson can pull it out? Seems unlikely to me but I guess not entirely impossible. Gillum is done, though. Gillum camp thinks that when all votes are counted they will be down 15K, so a gain of 35K. If you extrapolate that to Nelson he's up by 5K. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 12:45:48 PM I think you guys are overblowing it on the SC getting rid of Ranked Choice. Many on the Supreme Court have affirmed State Rights with elections, and they have never overturned an election system(as far as I know).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:45:56 PM Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ... At least there were decent gains in the House and among Governors and AZ still has the chance to be won by Sinema. BTW: Is there enough left for Nelson ? (I guess Gillum is done, which is a shame, because the racist DeSantis will now become Governor. And that fu**er Kemp also won). There is enough left numerically since the recount is just that, a recounting of all the votes. It's possible a ton of votes were counted wrong or something else screwy happened, but I doubt anyone has ever gained 30,000 votes in a recount. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 12:50:28 PM When will they start counting the AZ ballots?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 12:51:43 PM Why are places like UT-4 still not finished...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 12:52:18 PM Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ... At least there were decent gains in the House and among Governors and AZ still has the chance to be won by Sinema. BTW: Is there enough left for Nelson ? (I guess Gillum is done, which is a shame, because the racist DeSantis will now become Governor. And that fu**er Kemp also won). There is enough left numerically since the recount is just that, a recounting of all the votes. It's possible a ton of votes were counted wrong or something else screwy happened, but I doubt anyone has ever gained 30,000 votes in a recount. Well I think some people are saying (if I have this correct) that there are still some ballots left to be counted before the recount.. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 12:53:37 PM I think you guys are overblowing it on the SC getting rid of Ranked Choice. Many on the Supreme Court have affirmed State Rights with elections, and they have never overturned an election system(as far as I know). Such a case would presumably be making the same argument that was made in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015. That was a 5-4 decision with Kennedy siding with the Liberals to affirm the voter initiative creating the commission. And Kennedy isn't on the Court anymore... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 12:54:34 PM I think you guys are overblowing it on the SC getting rid of Ranked Choice. Many on the Supreme Court have affirmed State Rights with elections, and they have never overturned an election system(as far as I know). Such a case would presumably be making the same argument that was made in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015. That was a 5-4 decision with Kennedy siding with the Liberals to affirm the voter initiative creating the commission. And Kennedy isn't on the Court anymore... Roberts specifically hates to overturn decisions made by his court. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 12:55:01 PM Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ... At least there were decent gains in the House and among Governors and AZ still has the chance to be won by Sinema. BTW: Is there enough left for Nelson ? (I guess Gillum is done, which is a shame, because the racist DeSantis will now become Governor. And that fu**er Kemp also won). There is enough left numerically since the recount is just that, a recounting of all the votes. It's possible a ton of votes were counted wrong or something else screwy happened, but I doubt anyone has ever gained 30,000 votes in a recount. Well I think some people are saying (if I have this correct) that there are still some ballots left to be counted before the recount.. Oh, thanks for the clarification. In that case I don't know. But, votes had popped up in close races before, so it is possible. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 12:55:39 PM FL is still tightening. Nelson down 30K. Gillum down 50K. Just saw. CNN is ahead of NYT here. That was a net of about 4k for Nelson since first thing this morning. Maybe Nelson can pull it out? Seems unlikely to me but I guess not entirely impossible. Gillum is done, though. Gillum camp thinks that when all votes are counted they will be down 15K, so a gain of 35K. If you extrapolate that to Nelson he's up by 5K. If this is true, then why did he concede so early? It always seems to me like candidates are too quick to concede. There's nothing anti-democratic about just waiting a day to see what happens. People got so grumpy about Al Gore retracting his concession in 2000, as though the election should be decided by a phone call and not the actual vote count. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 12:56:11 PM CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0%
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 12:59:04 PM AP calls it for Tester
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 12:59:08 PM CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0% Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 07, 2018, 01:00:13 PM CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0% Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ. Good for Tester. But AZ takes probably a week or 2 to count all their votes. And FL could also take a while. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:00:15 PM Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it. Yes. All of the CA Dems in the lead right now are going to win. I would bet on Harder winning as well. Porter and Cisneros are going to be close but I think they also win. It's not just provisionals (even if they say 100% reporting). California accepts mail-in ballots *postmarked* by Election Day, so new ballots will continue arriving until Friday or so. And the late ballots always skew very strongly towards the Democrats, enough to make up 2-3 points in margin. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 01:00:41 PM NYT calls it for Tester.
If this ends up at R +1 after all this, I’ll laugh. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 01:00:46 PM Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate. Not likely, but still possible!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 07, 2018, 01:02:10 PM Nah, the federal courts have zero desire to wade into that morass. Maybe, but I have no faith in John Roberts, the man who constantly feigns anxiety about the court's reputation but then proceeds to gorge himself on partisan decisions that always seem to benefit the Republican Party immensely. Also, apparently he was quite animated in his dissent to the AZ redistricting commission lawsuit, so I don't feel good about a rematch. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 01:02:14 PM CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0% Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ. Technically Mississippi too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 01:03:36 PM CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0% Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ. Technically Mississippi too. Unless the D strength suddenly reappears, I doubt we get that one. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 01:05:22 PM Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county. How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her? She currently leads in Maricopa by 1%, but it's way too early to tell if that will extrapolate to the other votes or not The county usually leans Republican, but has been slowly trending democratic in recent elections. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 01:05:59 PM Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate. Not likely, but still possible! Well, no, its impossible to get a net change of 0 in the senate. The best Ds can do is R+1 at this point, if they win FL and AZ. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vespucci on November 07, 2018, 01:07:41 PM Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate. Not likely, but still possible! Well, no, its impossible to get a net change of 0 in the senate. The best Ds can do is R+1 at this point, if they win FL and AZ. If they somehow win MS it would be 0, but that’s not happening. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 07, 2018, 01:08:06 PM Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate. Not likely, but still possible! Well, no, its impossible to get a net change of 0 in the senate. The best Ds can do is R+1 at this point, if they win FL and AZ. I guess he's talking about this scenario + picking up MS-special in the runoff. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 01:13:03 PM I think James would have a very good shot at picking off the MI Senate seat in 2020 (as long as Trump is competitive).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 01:13:34 PM FL is still tightening. Nelson down 30K. Gillum down 50K. Just saw. CNN is ahead of NYT here. That was a net of about 4k for Nelson since first thing this morning. Maybe Nelson can pull it out? Seems unlikely to me but I guess not entirely impossible. Gillum is done, though. Gillum camp thinks that when all votes are counted they will be down 15K, so a gain of 35K. If you extrapolate that to Nelson he's up by 5K. Ugh don’t give me any false hope This times 10. Oh, WTF. It's already done. If, and I cannot emphasize if enough, Nelson and Lord Almighty, Gillum were to actually pull this out, my sh**ty ish feelings from last night would actually be largely mollified. I thought Donnelly was going to win, but certainly and not shocked he lost even if the margin was surprising. I'll still be bummed regardless as to how uniformly the Ohio democrats struck out. But if Florida has a Democratic governor going into redistricting and the Republicans only net one seat in the Senate, combined with over 30 seats picked up in the house and over half a dozen governorships including crucial ones in Florida Michigan and Wisconsin, I'm feeling pretty good about last night. :) Okay Florida. I have placed my emotional well-being in your elections hands, which is totally normal. Please validate my self-worth in your recount system. Again, totally normal. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 07, 2018, 01:13:59 PM What happened to Strong Candidate Jeff Van Drew
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 01:15:32 PM What happened to Strong Candidate Jeff Van Drew Turns out moderate candidates may not do better than Progressive ones, and vice versa, appeal is what matters, and Van Drew was on autopilot the entire election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 07, 2018, 01:18:56 PM Tester might pull it out, thank god.
If only Sinema didn’t choke. +2 R’s wouldn’t be THAT bad. If Florida had done it’s job then it would have been +1 which would be even better. But like 2016, so close but so far Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 01:20:17 PM Tester might pull it out, thank god. If only Sinema didn’t choke. +2 R’s wouldn’t be THAT bad. If Florida had done it’s job then it would have been +1 which would be even better. But like 2016, so close but so far There is like 500-600k more votes to be counted in AZ... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 07, 2018, 01:20:24 PM It looks like the count may narrow but the votes really aren't there for Nelson to win, the Arizona vote dump will setermine whether Republicans get 53 or 54 seats
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 01:21:12 PM Tester might pull it out, thank god. If only Sinema didn’t choke. +2 R’s wouldn’t be THAT bad. If Florida had done it’s job then it would have been +1 which would be even better. But like 2016, so close but so far Seriously man, stop it. MT was already called, its a D hold. AZ has 1/4 the ballots not in the totals. FL is going to be really close. Stop calling races before all the ballots are tallied. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 07, 2018, 01:23:30 PM Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it. I know Katie Hill. ...and I don't mean, I met her once. I mean, I know Katie Hill. I didn't thought she would win (believed NYT/Sierra poll) and didn't look up the result (for CA-25) until this morning and was like YES! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: President Johnson on November 07, 2018, 01:24:21 PM Yes, JON TESTER is reelected! Thank god, Tester lives. #populist <3 <3 <3
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 01:24:39 PM Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it. I know Katie Hill. ...and I don't mean, I met her once. I mean, I know Katie Hill. I didn't thought she would win (believed NYT/Sierra poll) and didn't look up the result (for CA-25) until this morning and was like YES! YES! She will be excellent in congress! I always knew she was going to win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 07, 2018, 01:27:36 PM I wound have been happy about the results last night but for the Bradley Effect in Florida. Whether or not its a the Bradley Effect, people need to lose their f[inks]ing jobs over this! I mean, what the f[inks]? Get fooled once shame on them... get fooled twice, shame on you!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 07, 2018, 01:27:44 PM Tester might pull it out, thank god. If only Sinema didn’t choke. +2 R’s wouldn’t be THAT bad. If Florida had done it’s job then it would have been +1 which would be even better. But like 2016, so close but so far lmao don't you have any shame? Weren't you disregarding facts about this race a few pages before? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 07, 2018, 01:27:48 PM Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county. How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her? She currently leads in Maricopa by 1%, but it's way too early to tell if that will extrapolate to the other votes or not Is it even plausible for a Democrat to win Maricopa county and lose the state? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 01:28:20 PM Is there any chance there remaining ballots could still swing CA-10 to Harder?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on November 07, 2018, 01:32:38 PM Is there any chance there remaining ballots could still swing CA-10 to Harder? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 01:33:41 PM Is there any chance there remaining ballots could still swing CA-10 to Harder? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 01:34:53 PM the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're wrong." Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil." It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals. The American people don't like that. You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left. Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right? Even they do not do it at the same level. Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil. Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that. It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan." You've gotta be kidding me....you must live in a bubble. Ever see quotes like this? Quote In an interview with Sean Hannity, Eric Trump lashed out at Democrats for what he described as obstructing his father’s agenda. “I’ve never seen hatred like this. To me, they’re not even people. It’s so, so sad. Morality’s just gone, morals have flown out the window, and we deserve so much better than this as a country,” he said. You will note that first person I cited was Menendez. Eric Trump is reacting to the hatred of his opponents. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 07, 2018, 01:37:43 PM Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it. I know Katie Hill. ...and I don't mean, I met her once. I mean, I know Katie Hill. I didn't thought she would win (believed NYT/Sierra poll) and didn't look up the result (for CA-25) until this morning and was like YES! YES! She will be excellent in congress! I always knew she was going to win. You had more faith that I did. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 01:39:28 PM Its possible all the Ds pull it out through the last ballots, though Gil and Porter arent looking so well. I guess, we just have to wait and see....
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 07, 2018, 01:42:31 PM the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're wrong." Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil." It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals. The American people don't like that. You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left. Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right? Even they do not do it at the same level. Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil. Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that. It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan." You've gotta be kidding me....you must live in a bubble. Ever see quotes like this? Quote In an interview with Sean Hannity, Eric Trump lashed out at Democrats for what he described as obstructing his father’s agenda. “I’ve never seen hatred like this. To me, they’re not even people. It’s so, so sad. Morality’s just gone, morals have flown out the window, and we deserve so much better than this as a country,” he said. You will note that first person I cited was Menendez. Eric Trump is reacting to the hatred of his opponents. So it would be better to say "we don't hate Trump, just what he does?" Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 01:42:51 PM Tester's first tweet needs to be to thank the 3rd parties for saving him once again, not his supporters, not anyone else, thank you to the spoiler votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 07, 2018, 01:44:19 PM Its possible all the Ds pull it out through the last ballots, though Gil and Porter arent looking so well. I guess, we just have to wait and see.... Gil has a far better chance than Porter given the margins (2k v 6k) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:46:23 PM Matt Rosendale lost the Senate race, and his son Adam Rosendale also lost his race for State Senate. Bad night for the Rosendale family.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 01:47:18 PM Tester's first tweet needs to be to thank the 3rd parties for saving him once again, not his supporters, not anyone else, thank you to the spoiler votes. ::) Also, Missoula, Gallatin and Cascade still have a bunch of votes out. Tester could break 50%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 07, 2018, 01:47:39 PM A friendly wager between Ben Kenobi and myself:
If you are confident that R's will gain seats, how about a friendly wager on it? Specifically, if the D's end up with fewer than 195 total House seats, I'll change my avatar to match your current one until the end of November. But if they end up with 195 or more, you change your avatar to I-GA for the same period. Agreed? Quote Nah, there are some predictions on the high end that are even more unlikely than yours (there's a D+153, IIRC). Which is sort of my point, no? Mine at least has polls that reflect the outcome. Quote How about which of our predictions is closest? We're both on record in the thread, you at R+4 and me at D+42. The average of those is D+19. Want to go over/under on that? (Exactly D+19 would be a push.) Why not straight up D takes the house you win. D falls short, I win. Simpler, and that's really the crux of the matter, no? Fair enough. It's a bet. Ben, you can change your avatar now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 07, 2018, 01:50:50 PM Were Rosendale and Morrisey the only carpetbagger senate candidates, or did any win?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 07, 2018, 01:52:01 PM Were Rosendale and Morrisey the only carpetbagger senate candidates, or did any win? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 01:52:29 PM A friendly wager between Ben Kenobi and myself: If you are confident that R's will gain seats, how about a friendly wager on it? Specifically, if the D's end up with fewer than 195 total House seats, I'll change my avatar to match your current one until the end of November. But if they end up with 195 or more, you change your avatar to I-GA for the same period. Agreed? Quote Nah, there are some predictions on the high end that are even more unlikely than yours (there's a D+153, IIRC). Which is sort of my point, no? Mine at least has polls that reflect the outcome. Quote How about which of our predictions is closest? We're both on record in the thread, you at R+4 and me at D+42. The average of those is D+19. Want to go over/under on that? (Exactly D+19 would be a push.) Why not straight up D takes the house you win. D falls short, I win. Simpler, and that's really the crux of the matter, no? Fair enough. It's a bet. Ben, you can change your avatar now. Title: Re: Rosendale looking good in Montana Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 07, 2018, 01:54:26 PM Well this aged horribly.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 01:54:29 PM Rosendale is not a carpetbagger.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 07, 2018, 01:55:17 PM Rosendale is not a carpetbagger. Not a senator either. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 07, 2018, 01:55:26 PM If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 07, 2018, 01:56:53 PM If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan? Maybe, actually, but Michigan has produced weird midterm results in the past, like voting for Peters by a landslide in an open race in 2014. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 01:57:32 PM If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan? Quite possibly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 01:58:02 PM Rosendale is not a carpetbagger. Not a senator either. That wasn’t his question, though. No one expected Rosendale to win, so it’s kinda a moot point anyway. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 07, 2018, 01:59:31 PM Funny thing:
In 2012, the Senate margin of all 33 states was D+12 and Dems gained 2 seats. Now, the Senate margin in all 35 states is D+15 and Dems lost 3 Senate seats with basically the same people running on the Dem side as in 2012 ... Dems ahead by 46 million votes to 33 million votes for the Republicans in the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 07, 2018, 02:00:19 PM Funny thing: In 2012, the Senate margin of all 33 states was D+12 and Dems gained 2 seats. Now, the Senate margin in all 25 states is D+15 and Dems lost 3 Senate seats with basically the same people running on the Dem side as in 2012 ... That’s polarization for ya. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 02:01:46 PM Funny thing: In 2012, the Senate margin of all 33 states was D+12 and Dems gained 2 seats. Now, the Senate margin in all 35 states is D+15 and Dems lost 3 Senate seats with basically the same people running on the Dem side as in 2012 ... Dems ahead by 46 million votes to 33 million votes for the Republicans in the Senate. What happens if you replace california with the gubernatorial votes and add maybe 5 percent to the dems? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 07, 2018, 02:03:06 PM I'm noticing a pollster that performed relatively well: Emerson.
And everyone around here acts like their polls are trash lol. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 07, 2018, 02:07:28 PM Tester's first tweet needs to be to thank the 3rd parties for saving him once again, not his supporters, not anyone else, thank you to the spoiler votes. If McSally wins, she needs to thank Angela Green Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 02:08:13 PM I'm noticing a pollster that performed relatively well: Emerson. And everyone around here acts like their polls are trash lol. Emerson is ok its just they are pretty bad early in the cycle because they have too many undecideds. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 07, 2018, 02:09:08 PM Tester's first tweet needs to be to thank the 3rd parties for saving him once again, not his supporters, not anyone else, thank you to the spoiler votes. If McSally wins, she needs to thank Angela Green Wasn't Sinema a former Green Party member? That would be ironic. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 07, 2018, 02:11:31 PM At this point I'm calling it a 53/47 senate. The numbers aren't there for Scott to lose and Hyde-Smith isn't losing barring revelations of her being a female Roy Moore. The only race that is still in question is Arizona and I don't think Mcsally survives the late deluge of votes
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 07, 2018, 02:12:50 PM Tester's first tweet needs to be to thank the 3rd parties for saving him once again, not his supporters, not anyone else, thank you to the spoiler votes. If McSally wins, she needs to thank Angela Green Wasn't Sinema a former Green Party member? That would be ironic. I think this is part of why Angela Green's vote count is that high. There's supposedly a lot of resentment between Greens and Sinema. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 02:13:47 PM At this point I'm calling it a 53/47 senate. The numbers aren't there for Scott to lose and Hyde-Smith isn't losing barring revelations of her being a female Roy Moore. The only race that is still in question is Arizona and I don't think Mcsally survives the late deluge of votes Ironically, exactly the inverse of what it was after the 2010 elections. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 07, 2018, 02:16:27 PM Rosendale is not a carpetbagger. Oh, my bad. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 07, 2018, 02:17:01 PM Funny thing: In 2012, the Senate margin of all 33 states was D+12 and Dems gained 2 seats. Now, the Senate margin in all 35 states is D+15 and Dems lost 3 Senate seats with basically the same people running on the Dem side as in 2012 ... Dems ahead by 46 million votes to 33 million votes for the Republicans in the Senate. What happens if you replace california with the gubernatorial votes and add maybe 5 percent to the dems? That’s a really good point. CA having two Dems for senate makes it hard to do popular vote comparisons like that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 02:18:59 PM Holding out hope for 54R/46D, but I’m sure Dems will win one or both races because of course they will.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Inmate Trump on November 07, 2018, 02:19:09 PM If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan? Republicans would have historic numbers in the House and Senate. It’d be a bloodbath of a midterm. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 02:20:01 PM If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan? Republicans would have historic numbers in the House and Senate. It’d be a bloodbath of a midterm. Meh I think the senate would be brutal but the house would probably be like back to 2014 and maybe 2or 3 seats lower. Reps didn't have many more targets. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 07, 2018, 02:22:40 PM Florida down to just 53% chance of Scott on NYT. A true tossup.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:23:49 PM Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it. I know Katie Hill. ...and I don't mean, I met her once. I mean, I know Katie Hill. I didn't thought she would win (believed NYT/Sierra poll) and didn't look up the result (for CA-25) until this morning and was like YES! Um, are you implying you've dated her or something? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 07, 2018, 02:24:25 PM Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ?
Remaining ballots: Maricopa 475-500k Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots: 300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day 200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals. Pima 80 to 100k Pinal 40k This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 07, 2018, 02:26:23 PM A friendly wager between Ben Kenobi and myself: If you are confident that R's will gain seats, how about a friendly wager on it? Specifically, if the D's end up with fewer than 195 total House seats, I'll change my avatar to match your current one until the end of November. But if they end up with 195 or more, you change your avatar to I-GA for the same period. Agreed? Quote Nah, there are some predictions on the high end that are even more unlikely than yours (there's a D+153, IIRC). Which is sort of my point, no? Mine at least has polls that reflect the outcome. Quote How about which of our predictions is closest? We're both on record in the thread, you at R+4 and me at D+42. The average of those is D+19. Want to go over/under on that? (Exactly D+19 would be a push.) Why not straight up D takes the house you win. D falls short, I win. Simpler, and that's really the crux of the matter, no? Fair enough. It's a bet. Ben, you can change your avatar now. That know nothing coward promised to leave Atlas if Roy Moore Was Defeated. He welched on that that too. Don't expect him to man up here. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 07, 2018, 02:26:26 PM If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan? Republicans would have historic numbers in the House and Senate. It’d be a bloodbath of a midterm. Meh I think the senate would be brutal but the house would probably be like back to 2014 and maybe 2or 3 seats lower. Reps didn't have many more targets. Yeah, after 2014, there really were very few seats Democratic held House seats left that Republicans had a realistic chance of taking. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Andy Hine on November 07, 2018, 02:26:54 PM Why did so many states take forever to count their votes? Maine has only counted 85% of their votes. Nevada didn't start counting until 1:00. A lot of other states took forever.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 07, 2018, 02:28:15 PM Why did so many states take forever to count their votes? Maine has only counted 85% of their votes. Nevada didn't start counting until 1:00. A lot of other states took forever. I think I heard that Nevada was waiting for everyone to be finished voting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 02:29:23 PM Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ? Remaining ballots: Maricopa 475-500k Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots: 300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day 200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals. Pima 80 to 100k Pinal 40k This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer Haven't chedked back at the SoS site, but Maricopa was a narrow Sinema edge, Pima was 60/40 Sinema and Pinal was 60/40 McSally. Given there are a whole load more votes in Maricopa, the Democrats probably need to maintain a clear edge there, push their advantage in Pima and prevent a McSally blow out in Pinal. I have no idea if any of that is possible or if it would make up the 16,000 vote shortfall, but shouldn't the 'late earlies' lean Dem? Another thing to note, there are no outstanding rural counties where McSally was running up big margins. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Andy Hine on November 07, 2018, 02:33:17 PM Why did so many states take forever to count their votes? Maine has only counted 85% of their votes. Nevada didn't start counting until 1:00. A lot of other states took forever. I think I heard that Nevada was waiting for everyone to be finished voting. strange Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 07, 2018, 02:33:24 PM Florida down to just 53% chance of Scott on NYT. A true tossup. Why? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 07, 2018, 02:35:58 PM Is there any chance for a victory in FL AG Commissioner? It's the closest of all statewide races.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 07, 2018, 02:37:18 PM TUCSON, Ariz. - There still is no clear winner in the close race between Martha McSally and Kyrsten Sinema.
The race remains too close to call between the two Congresswomen from Arizona, and Garrett Archer -- and analyst from the Arizona Secretary of State's office -- says hundreds of thousands of votes remain to be counted. Archer says most of the ballots that remain to be counted are early ballots that were sent late, and provisional ballots that need to be verified. https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060213643361415168 With nearly all of the ballots cast on Election Day counted, McSally leads Sinema by about 16,000 votes -- or about 0.9 percent . In Pima County, election officials say nearly 80,000 ballots still need to be counted. Sinema carried a strong lead in Pima County, with 55.2 percent of the vote counted so far, while McSally only received 42.8 percent. County election officials say they won't resume counting those ballots until Thursday. https://twitter.com/pimaarizona/status/1060249622541680640 The vast majority of ballots to be counted, however, are in Maricopa County, election officials say. Sinema has a narrow lead there with 49.4 percent of the vote, compared to McSally's 48.6 percent. https://www.kgun9.com/news/political/elections-local/arizona-senate-results-still-counting Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 07, 2018, 02:39:34 PM Is there any chance for a victory in FL AG Commissioner? It's the closest of all statewide races. Yes but it's slim. Broward, Duval, and Palm Beach all have some mail ballots still to count. And Broward also has some EV votes to count. It'll be close but she might be able to pull it off. There are about 34k votes in Broward to count (17k which are VBMs). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 02:42:23 PM Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ? Remaining ballots: Maricopa 475-500k Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots: 300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day 200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals. Pima 80 to 100k Pinal 40k This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer Haven't chedked back at the SoS site, but Maricopa was a narrow Sinema edge, Pima was 60/40 Sinema and Pinal was 60/40 McSally. Given there are a whole load more votes in Maricopa, the Democrats probably need to maintain a clear edge there, push their advantage in Pima and prevent a McSally blow out in Pinal. I have no idea if any of that is possible or if it would make up the 16,000 vote shortfall, but shouldn't the 'late earlies' lean Dem? Another thing to note, there are no outstanding rural counties where McSally was running up big margins. If these are all the ballots left, and the splits exactly match the counted voted in each county, it won't be quite enough for Sinema; she'd lose by about 4k. They'd need to be like 0.5%-1% more pro-Democratic than the counted vote to put her over the top. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 07, 2018, 02:50:28 PM Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ? Remaining ballots: Maricopa 475-500k Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots: 300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day 200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals. Pima 80 to 100k Pinal 40k This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer Haven't chedked back at the SoS site, but Maricopa was a narrow Sinema edge, Pima was 60/40 Sinema and Pinal was 60/40 McSally. Given there are a whole load more votes in Maricopa, the Democrats probably need to maintain a clear edge there, push their advantage in Pima and prevent a McSally blow out in Pinal. I have no idea if any of that is possible or if it would make up the 16,000 vote shortfall, but shouldn't the 'late earlies' lean Dem? Another thing to note, there are no outstanding rural counties where McSally was running up big margins. If these are all the ballots left, and the splits exactly match the counted voted in each county, it won't be quite enough for Sinema; she'd lose by about 4k. They'd need to be like 0.5%-1% more pro-Democratic than the counted vote to put her over the top. I mean, its entirely possible they will be. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 07, 2018, 02:50:46 PM Regardless of whether she actually pulls it out in the end or not, I think it's fair to say that Sinema's campaign was an embarrassing failure.
Muh Blue Dog. Muh vote against Chuck Schumer. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 07, 2018, 02:53:07 PM Regardless of whether she actually pulls it out in the end or not, I think it's fair to say that Sinema's campaign was an embarrassing failure. Muh Blue Dog. Muh vote against Chuck Schumer. If she pulls it out, she'd be the first democrat senator elected to Arizona in 30 years. I'm not sure how you can call that an embarrassing failure. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 07, 2018, 03:00:10 PM Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ? Remaining ballots: Maricopa 475-500k Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots: 300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day 200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals. Pima 80 to 100k Pinal 40k This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer Haven't chedked back at the SoS site, but Maricopa was a narrow Sinema edge, Pima was 60/40 Sinema and Pinal was 60/40 McSally. Given there are a whole load more votes in Maricopa, the Democrats probably need to maintain a clear edge there, push their advantage in Pima and prevent a McSally blow out in Pinal. I have no idea if any of that is possible or if it would make up the 16,000 vote shortfall, but shouldn't the 'late earlies' lean Dem? Another thing to note, there are no outstanding rural counties where McSally was running up big margins. If these are all the ballots left, and the splits exactly match the counted voted in each county, it won't be quite enough for Sinema; she'd lose by about 4k. They'd need to be like 0.5%-1% more pro-Democratic than the counted vote to put her over the top. I mean, its entirely possible they will be. Dems probably need to bank on a trend within the 'late earlies' similar to what we're seeing in FL. One thing that might mean the 'late earlies' in AZ are less Dem friendly, is that the early vote in AZ is more established and traditionally more Republican. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 07, 2018, 03:20:05 PM The county map of CA-Sen seems like the most definitive refutation of the rational choice model of proximity voting I've ever seen.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 03:24:29 PM So it would be better to say "we don't hate Trump, just what he does?" Hating what his policies are, yes. I think it is fine to criticize his policies (and I'll join in with that on somethings). It it not just Trump. I saw this with Menendez. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 07, 2018, 03:28:57 PM NYT has finally called MN-1 for Hagedorn.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 03:30:35 PM Why did so many states take forever to count their votes? Maine has only counted 85% of their votes. Nevada didn't start counting until 1:00. A lot of other states took forever. I think I heard that Nevada was waiting for everyone to be finished voting. Nevada was having reporting issues, I think. We were expecting the EV numbers to come in all at once and a lot sooner than they did. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 03:33:03 PM Apparently Steve Knight called Katie Hill to concede CA-25.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Anzeigenhauptmeister on November 07, 2018, 03:47:17 PM If God created a crimson tsunami engulfing the whole Senate, why didn't he also make it devour Menendez? :'(
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 03:51:21 PM Looks like Andy Kim is going to take the lead in NJ-03.
11-1 Democratic New Jersey activate! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: izixs on November 07, 2018, 03:51:56 PM If God created a crimson tsunami engulfing the whole Senate, why didn't he also make it devour Menendez? :'( Here's a solution. Elect a democrat as president. Have them appoint Menendez to be ambassador to say Laos or something. And then after he leaves the senate, fire him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Anzeigenhauptmeister on November 07, 2018, 03:52:22 PM What happened to Richard Ojeda? I really thought he would win his race.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 03:53:08 PM Looks like Andy Kim is going to take the lead in NJ-03. 11-1 Democratic New Jersey activate! Nice! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Anzeigenhauptmeister on November 07, 2018, 03:53:31 PM If God created a crimson tsunami engulfing the whole Senate, why didn't he also make it devour Menendez? :'( Here's a solution. Elect a democrat as president. Have them appoint Menendez to be ambassador to say Laos or something. And then after he leaves the senate, fire him. Good idea! Why didn't Trump come up with such a plan? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 03:54:18 PM What happened to Richard Ojeda? I really thought he would win his race. West Virginia happened. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 03:54:28 PM Thailand would be more fitting than Laos.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chinggis on November 07, 2018, 03:54:35 PM What happened to Richard Ojeda? I really thought he would win his race. I really wanted him to win, too, but West Virginia is gone. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Dowager Mod on November 07, 2018, 03:55:58 PM Somebody's bitter. :d :d Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Coldstream on November 07, 2018, 03:57:22 PM Why is UT-04 taking so long to count?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 04:01:26 PM Somebody's bitter. :d :d Man he always sounds like a whiny little brat. He must've been spoiled as a child or something. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: InheritTheWind on November 07, 2018, 04:05:40 PM What happened to Richard Ojeda? I really thought he would win his race. It's crazy to me that after all his hype, Ojeda ended up losing worse than the Democrat in WV-2 did. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 07, 2018, 04:06:05 PM Man he always sounds like a whiny little brat. He must've been spoiled as a child or something. Indeed. Costello also flipped out after the PASC redrew his district and literally called for their impeachment, calling the process "corrupt," completely ignoring how the entire reason Republicans (including himself) even had that many seats in PA for the past ~8 years was because of actual corruption (in the form of election rigging). He can get bent as far as I am concerned. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 04:09:09 PM Looks like Andy Kim is going to take the lead in NJ-03. 11-1 Democratic New Jersey activate! I had also heard that all of the outstanding precincts in NJ-03 are in overwhelmingly black Willingboro, by far the most Democratic municipality in the district (and nearly in the state). Seems like Kim will win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ltomlinson31 on November 07, 2018, 04:09:10 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 04:12:21 PM Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ? Remaining ballots: Maricopa 475-500k Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots: 300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day 200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals. Pima 80 to 100k Pinal 40k This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer If these are correct and complete, I’d say Senator Sinema is a nailed-on certainty. Late absentees and earlies are very Dem in partisan ID. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 04:13:44 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 07, 2018, 04:18:23 PM Plus ballots in the mail postmarked by yesterday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 04:21:49 PM Plus ballots in the mail postmarked by yesterday. Ugh, the waiting game... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 07, 2018, 04:23:15 PM Remember how long it took Orange County to finish counting the primary and determine that Rouda had made the runoff.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 04:23:57 PM Plus ballots in the mail postmarked by yesterday. They might be including that in their estimates, but, if not, that's probably around 100,000 or so ballots. Easily enough to make the difference. Has everyone forgotten the CA primaries this year where the Dem candidate totals increased by 2-3 points everywhere over the week after primary day, saving the Democrats from what looked like would be D shut-outs in CA-10 and CA-48? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 04:24:15 PM Remember how long it took Orange County to finish counting the primary and determine that Rouda had made the runoff. We are looking at until after Thanksgiving at the earliest, maybe early December. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 04:27:26 PM Big relief that Tester survived.
McCaskill, Donnelly, Hubbell, and Cordray losing sucks, but it's nothing we wouldn't have expected a few weeks ago. It's looking like Florida (of course) was the only truly toxic spot for Dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 07, 2018, 04:31:21 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 04:35:31 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 04:36:12 PM LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans. That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats. Literally embarrassing. 55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet. As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost. I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over You're really bad at this "predictions" thing. You should probably quit while you're behind. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 07, 2018, 04:37:12 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. I mean, you can't sugarcoat it. Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night. Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots. Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 04:38:49 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. Plus Arizona's second Senate seat is open in 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Matty on November 07, 2018, 04:39:02 PM This board and twitter seem to be at odds regarding Arizona
Psephologists seem to think McSally will win by slight margin Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 07, 2018, 04:39:33 PM This board and twitter seem to be at odds regarding Arizona Psephologists seem to think McSally will win by slight margin Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 04:39:40 PM Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 04:39:47 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. As he should for wanting to ban condoms. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 04:42:22 PM Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ... It's only "crappy" in your eyes because your prediction was delusionally optimistic and completely out of the bounds of reality. Your posts on Tennessee were insufferable. Blackburn was always going to win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 07, 2018, 04:45:25 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Did Barbara Cegavske lose? NYT still has her up under 1pt with 99% in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 07, 2018, 04:45:37 PM Anyone have an idea as to the final results in GA-06 or GA-07? Currently, McBath is up 1.0% and Woodall is up 0.4%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 04:47:25 PM ^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?).
Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 04:48:41 PM ^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?). Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now. Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 04:52:35 PM ^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?). Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now. Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects. Safe R if anybody but Bullock or Schweitzer. Lean with bullock and I have no ing clue with Schweitzer as he has more #populism in him than Jon tester. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 07, 2018, 04:53:15 PM Nevada did it again, with Rosen and Sisolak winning pretty handily and outperforming Clinton and Cortez Masto.
But I'm sure that in four years we'll all be panicking about Cortez Masto polling within the margin of error. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 04:56:34 PM ^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?). Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now. Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects. Safe R if anybody but Bullock or Schweitzer. Lean with bullock and I have no ing clue with Schweitzer as he has more #populism in him than Jon tester. Ideally I'd hope Bullock runs for reelection (or dare I say President?!), while Schweitzer runs for Senate. There'd be less to lose since Schweitzer doesn't currently hold a public office. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 04:59:45 PM Nevada did it again, with Rosen and Sisolak winning pretty handily and outperforming Clinton and Cortez Masto. But I'm sure that in four years we'll all be panicking about Cortez Masto polling within the margin of error. Four years? I bet within a few months we'll get a SurveyMonkey or Reuters poll showing Trump up in Nevada, and Atlas will rate it lean R and the most likely Clinton state to flip because SURELY the polls won't overestimate Republicans in Nevada THIS TIME! The entire past decade was a fluke! The ride never ends. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 05:01:45 PM ^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?). Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now. Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects. Probably, but I think people really underestimate how vulnerable he is. He only won in 2014 because of a perfect storm (Baucus retirement, Walsh's plagiarism scandal, GOP wave, wrong Democratic candidate for the state, national Dems not prioritizing the race, etc.) which likely won’t be replicated in 2020. I have a hard time seeing him beating Steve Bullock, honestly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 07, 2018, 05:02:36 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. Creepin' Corey better resign now than face a Blanchein' in 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 05:04:54 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. Creepin' Corey better resign now than face a Blanchein' in 2020. I'm trying to not quote people as much without having a response to the previous post. But, this is hilarious. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 07, 2018, 05:05:59 PM Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN. Is ME-02 now permanently Trumpified? Golden is down. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 07, 2018, 05:06:53 PM Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN. Maine counts by town, which means it takes a century because some towns are way slower at transmitting results than others. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Kodak on November 07, 2018, 05:06:59 PM Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN. Is ME-02 now permanently Trumpified? Golden is down. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 07, 2018, 05:08:15 PM Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 05:09:02 PM HOLY sh**t did anyone See HAYS County texas. IT WENT FROM 46.2 46.0 Trump-Clinton to 57.4 41 Beto Cruz. That is a ing 16 point swing in an Austin Suburb.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 05:09:58 PM Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN. Is ME-02 now permanently Trumpified? Golden is down. Nope, RCV comes to save the day. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Devout Centrist on November 07, 2018, 05:11:41 PM Eh, could've been a better night, but I'm still feeling good with the results.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 07, 2018, 05:12:03 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. I mean, you can't sugarcoat it. Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night. Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots. Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DavidB. on November 07, 2018, 05:15:32 PM Well I officially have to apologize for all the s*** I've talked about Florida over the years. You're alright, Florida. Keep it up for 2020 and stay weird. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 05:16:32 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. I mean, you can't sugarcoat it. Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night. Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots. Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it. With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 05:17:36 PM Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN. Is ME-02 now permanently Trumpified? Golden is down. Instant run-off. Golden will likely win on transfer votes from independent Tiffany Bond, who ran a primarily anti-Poliquin campaign, even if he is narrowly down on the first round. With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. I mean, you can't sugarcoat it. Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night. Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots. Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it. With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction. I agree. NYT hasn't called it; did CNN? I was just thinking in response to this post that Herrera-Beutler is not a certainty for reelection yet. Late ballots in WA skew as Democratic as in CA, though a 5-point margin is tougher to overcome than what certain CA Dems may manage. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 05:18:46 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. I mean, you can't sugarcoat it. Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night. Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots. Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it. With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction. If it means much, Politico hasn't called WA-03 yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 05:20:59 PM Andy Kim officially took the lead.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 05:21:47 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. I mean, you can't sugarcoat it. Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night. Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots. Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it. With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction. If it means much, Politico hasn't called WA-03 yet. Yeah, neither has NYT. I'm thinking it was a mistake for CNN to do so. It would be far from the first time they had to retract a call and the other person ended up winning. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 05:24:23 PM Andy Kim officially took the lead. Nice! 11-1! Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 07, 2018, 05:25:44 PM Andy Kim officially took the lead. Suburbantastrophe Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 05:29:12 PM Andy Kim officially took the lead. Nice! 11-1! Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity. Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 07, 2018, 05:58:43 PM Ed Case beat Cam Cavasso 73-23. So much for Case under 60 LMAO
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 05:59:24 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. I mean, you can't sugarcoat it. Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night. Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots. Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it. You are right about Gardner. Looking at Jared Polis's county win map, it is clear to me that Gardner's chances in 2020 are very low at this point. Stapleton managed to narrowly win Conejos and Las Animas Counties, which Trump carried in 2016. He got the typical margins for Republicans in rural Colorado, and in Douglas County (which he won by 16), El Paso County (which he won by 19), Weld County (which he won by 23), and in Mesa County (which he won by 26). Polis, however, won Adams County by 11, Jefferson County by 12, Arapahoe County by 16, and Broomfield by 20 percentage points. He carried Larimer County (Fort Collins) by 12 points, and got 76% in both Denver and Boulder Counties. Polis also managed to flip Chaffee and Garfield Counties, counties Trump won in 2016, canceling out Stapleton's minor pickups in far Southern Colorado. Moreover, he managed to hold Pueblo and Huerfano Counties, which Stapleton thought he could win. He also got over 70% in Pitkin and San Miguel Counties, home to Aspen and Telluride respectively. It is clear at this point that the Denver suburbs are firmly in the Likely Democratic category, and that winning by double digits in Weld, Mesa, Douglas, and El Paso Counties is nowhere near enough for Republicans. Their gains in Southern Colorado are insignificant, and won't help them either. If Gardner loses by as much as Stapleton did in Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Jefferson, and Larimer in 2020, then he is done for. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 07, 2018, 06:00:03 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Did Barbara Cegavske lose? NYT still has her up under 1pt with 99% in. Sadly her Democratic opponent conceded. That's the only statewide office Democrats lost, which is too bad because if he had won, 2018 in Nevada would have done a complete 180 from 2014. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 07, 2018, 06:17:06 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Did Barbara Cegavske lose? NYT still has her up under 1pt with 99% in. Sadly her Democratic opponent conceded. That's the only statewide office Democrats lost, which is too bad because if he had won, 2018 in Nevada would have done a complete 180 from 2014. His opponent conceded and I don't think there's anything more than a few absentees left. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 07, 2018, 06:37:03 PM With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now. Cory Gardner is very afraid right now. I mean, you can't sugarcoat it. Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night. Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots. Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it. With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction. If it means much, Politico hasn't called WA-03 yet. Yeah, neither has NYT. I'm thinking it was a mistake for CNN to do so. It would be far from the first time they had to retract a call and the other person ended up winning. Lol. CNN just did that last night for IL-13. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2018, 06:51:48 PM Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 06:55:44 PM Honestly, I feel a little sorry for Kathleen Williams. I didn’t support her or anything, but she didn’t deserve to do eight points worse than Tester, and it can’t all be chalked up to causes related to her campaign. She could have run a flawless campaign and there still would have been a ton of Trump/Tester/Gianforte <3 voters. She might even lose by more than Rob Quist, which honestly makes me a little uneasy.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 06:59:49 PM Honestly, I feel a little sorry for Kathleen Williams. I didn’t support her or anything, but she didn’t deserve to do eight points worse than Tester, and it can’t all be chalked up to causes related to her campaign. She could have run a flawless campaign and there still would have been a ton of Trump/Tester/Gianforte <3 voters. She might even lose by more than Rob Quist, which honestly makes me a little uneasy. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 07, 2018, 07:07:39 PM The county map of CA-Sen seems like the most definitive refutation of the rational choice model of proximity voting I've ever seen. Part of me wishes that De Leon had won simply because of how funny it would be that Republicans chose someone to the left of DiFi. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 07, 2018, 07:21:59 PM Well I officially have to apologize for all the s*** I've talked about Florida over the years. You're alright, Florida. Keep it up for 2020 and stay weird. I was actually looking for that post so I could quote it and take it back in its entirety. Thanks for finding it. I deserve to be mocked for it. It's possible that I jinxed the race by writing this. Florida sucks. It will always suck. It's awful to the point that I hate it more than I ever have previously-that's a lot of hate right there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 07, 2018, 07:23:38 PM Andy Kim officially took the lead. Nice! 11-1! Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity. Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats. The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 07:27:44 PM Andy Kim officially took the lead. Nice! 11-1! Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity. Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats. The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman. Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 08:12:55 PM Steve Knight (R, CA-25) conceded to Katie Hill.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 08:32:40 PM Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 08:35:45 PM Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County. yeah of course it was. Mcadams looks like a slight favorite to win and Ghorbani only lost by 20. Imagine mormons actually becoming democrat coz of Trump lol. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 07, 2018, 08:41:31 PM Looks like NM-2 may follow NJ-3 into the blue column.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 08:46:18 PM Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 08:47:15 PM Looks like NM-2 may follow NJ-3 into the blue column. Ha, another revoked call by CNN! They even still have it called for Herrell on their results map despite having updated their results to show Torres Small up 50.7-49.3. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: adma on November 07, 2018, 08:47:31 PM It says something about the "urbanization" of the Dems that of the GOP seats remaining in Oklahoma, OK-1 (centred upon Tulsa) was the closest--OK-2, at one point Oklahoma's "token Dem" seat, is now 2nd best for GOP.
Oh, and while there's talk of AOC as the youngest elected female, there's also the matter of Shalala as oldest--and very nearly, the oldest of anyone, ever... https://history.house.gov/HistoricalHighlight/Detail/15032400044?ret=True Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 07, 2018, 08:48:08 PM Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow. A path to victory for Nelson exists but it's narrow and likely involves provisional ballots. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 07, 2018, 08:50:14 PM Steve Knight (R, CA-25) conceded to Katie Hill. Yeah! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 07, 2018, 08:54:32 PM Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow. A path to victory for Nelson exists but it's narrow and likely involves provisional ballots. Is there any estimate of how many outstanding ballots are left in FL at this point? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 08:54:42 PM Rick Scott's lead is down to only 26k now in FL. It sounds like Nelson may have the votes in the end.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 08:54:59 PM Also, on the topic of possible revoked calls: I'm not certain Valadao is out of the woods in CA-21. Latino-heavy districts in California tend to be the ones with the strongest late-votes advantage for the Democrats, and he's already underperforming expectations somewhat. Would be unlikely but not impossible for the final result to have Cox narrowly ahead. Cox would surely be the biggest nobody to win a race.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 08:58:10 PM Looks like NM-2 may follow NJ-3 into the blue column. XOCHITLMENTUM!!!!1111!!!1! Looks like a reasonably good chance to break 230. +40 probably isn’t happening, though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 07, 2018, 08:58:31 PM Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow. Hmm. Elias saved Roy Cooper’s bacon two years ago... doubt he can pull another rabbit out of a hat Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 07, 2018, 08:59:03 PM Could Golden still win in ME-02 with automatic runoff?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 09:00:23 PM Could Golden still win in ME-02 with automatic runoff? I think Golden’s favored, actually. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 09:00:23 PM Election officials in NM are saying Torres-Small won. New Mexico has an all-democratic delegation now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 09:01:46 PM Not only did Andy Kim pull ahead at the last minute, but so did Torres Small:
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-mexico-house-district-2 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 09:03:06 PM People are beginning to call MN-02 for the Democrats. Wow. Angie Craig really came back from winning already lol. *NM :/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 09:03:07 PM Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County. Romney's win was very underwhelming. He did about 9% worse as compared to 2012, and as you have noted, lost two counties (and only narrowly won Salt Lake County). Why Romney underperformed to such an extent is beyond me. Some people on here actually thought he would get 80% of the vote! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: _ on November 07, 2018, 09:04:59 PM LOOK AT THIS DOOD FOR NM-2
https://www.kob.com/politics-news/republican-yvette-herrell-wins-hotly-contested-2nd-congressional-district-seat/5135774/ () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 09:06:00 PM Could Golden still win in ME-02 with automatic runoff? I think Golden’s favored, actually. Yes, I would be surprised if Golden lost, though the instant run-off is a bit unpredictable since it's the first go-round - maybe nearly everyone failed to mark a second choice. Anyone know when they will start distributing preferences in ME-02? I looked at the precincts left to report on NYT (they have a breakdown by town), and it's all tiny municipalities, we're talking no more than a few thousand votes total, can't make much difference in the result. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 07, 2018, 09:07:25 PM Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County. Romney's win was very underwhelming. He did about 9% worse as compared to 2012, and as you have noted, lost two counties (and only narrowly won Salt Lake County). Why Romney underperformed to such an extent is beyond me. Some people on here actually thought he would get 80% of the vote! I think a good chunk of suburban Mormons around SLC are moving away from the Republican Party under Trump. Not enough to wildly flip any results for the foreseeable future, but it's something. Are they moving away from Rs, or did they just sit out this election because they don’t like Trump and Romney was a shoo-in? Governors’ races in Utah are in presidential years so Mormons could safely stay home. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 09:08:23 PM LOOK AT THIS DOOD FOR NM-2 https://www.kob.com/politics-news/republican-yvette-herrell-wins-hotly-contested-2nd-congressional-district-seat/5135774/ () PAGE NOT FOUND L-O-L Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 07, 2018, 09:08:57 PM NYT has called NM-2 for Dems!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 09:10:26 PM All-Dem New Mexico delegation!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 09:14:04 PM CNN still has it called for Herrell on their site, ha.
NYT and Politico also just adjusted Ortiz-Jones's total in TX-23 downward by about 500 votes but made no change to Hurd's. Anyone know what happened there? CNN still has the old numbers but seems to be behind the times now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 09:17:24 PM I love that save Hurd's district (which could still flip to Ortiz Jones), every single congressional district on the border is represented by Dems. Build that wall! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 07, 2018, 09:17:47 PM Are they gonna call GA-06 or...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 07, 2018, 09:18:52 PM Are they gonna call GA-06 or... I think there are still a bunch of provisionals out in Fulton, so probably not until those are all resolved. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 09:23:40 PM Has anyone heard anything about those rumored absentee ballots from Gwinnett County in GA-07 that were supposed to be uncounted as of early this morning?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 09:26:08 PM Anyone know why NYT hasn't called NY-22 for Brindisi?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 07, 2018, 09:27:42 PM Anyone know why NYT hasn't called NY-22 for Brindisi? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 07, 2018, 09:30:59 PM I think we’re looking at around 232 seats, +/-1.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 09:36:24 PM McSally's lead has increased by about 1,000 votes from some random rural counties.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 09:37:14 PM Anyone else think it's funny that with all the fools in here cheering or whining thinking Tester was going to lose and he's going to end up with the biggest victory of his career.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2018, 09:49:04 PM Anyone else think it's funny that with all the fools in here cheering or whining thinking Tester was going to lose and he's going to end up with the biggest victory of his career. Looks like montana has a whole isn't gone. Remember that Trump campaigned more against tester than anybody else and still the rural hicks in MT loved Testers haircut so they voted for him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 09:50:54 PM Just found out Torres Small is 34. 0_0
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 09:53:27 PM Anyone else think it's funny that with all the fools in here cheering or whining thinking Tester was going to lose and he's going to end up with the biggest victory of his career. That remains to be seen. It could be a little closer than it was in 2012, but MT Dems definitely did a good job here, while the NRSC completely f**ked this race up. Speaking of "fools", though.. I remember people here thinking that Nelson would win easily, Donnelly and McCaskill would win, Democrats would take the Senate, etc. Are they "fools" as well? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 07, 2018, 09:56:18 PM Andy Kim is now leading in New Jersey. That would mean 4 pickups in NJ alone - and only one Republican left in the 12-seat delegation - and Chris Smith got a much smaller percentage- 55.8%- after getting 63.7% in 2016 and never going below 60% since 1982. He's been in there since 1980.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 07, 2018, 09:57:56 PM Tester has broken 50% the first time ever in his elections.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 07, 2018, 09:59:12 PM Tester has broken 50% the first time ever in his elections. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 07, 2018, 09:59:17 PM Tester has broken 50% the first time ever in his elections. It’s the haircut Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 07, 2018, 10:01:27 PM The blue wave is actually getting bigger as we go into Thursday
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 07, 2018, 10:03:20 PM Xochitl pulling it out in the end was a nice surprise. Here's to hoping the majority can get to 230+!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 07, 2018, 10:04:30 PM Tester has broken 50% the first time ever in his elections. It’s the haircut Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: progressive85 on November 07, 2018, 10:05:05 PM HOLY sh**t did anyone See HAYS County texas. IT WENT FROM 46.2 46.0 Trump-Clinton to 57.4 41 Beto Cruz. That is a ing 16 point swing in an Austin Suburb. The swings in the Texas House races are so hard that it actually looks like the results were hacked and those aren't real. for example: Kenny Marchant barely won re-election against somebody named McDowell. lol Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 07, 2018, 10:05:18 PM Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses.
Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 07, 2018, 10:06:15 PM Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses. Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean? Based on previous election results and the primary, they will lean D. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 07, 2018, 10:08:08 PM When should Arizona results come in?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 07, 2018, 10:08:23 PM Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses. Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean? I would say he is a juggernaut, his voting record is well to the left of the state, not only voted against Kavanaugh but Gorsuch as well. And unlike other deep Trump state Sens he really went to bat against Trump. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 10:09:20 PM Tester has broken 50% the first time ever in his elections. It’s the haircut Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 10:13:32 PM CNN has been a mess this election. Having to uncall so many calls is embarrassing.
Dems picking up NM-02 is awesome! Steve Pearce vacates his district to run statewide, gets crushed, then his district flips Dem once per decade. lol Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pollster on November 07, 2018, 10:13:49 PM Trump and Don Jr were furiously committed to unseating Tester and Tester responded with the biggest win of his career so far.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 07, 2018, 10:17:45 PM Xochitl Torres Small was one of my favourite House candidates this cycle. Very happy to see her win.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 07, 2018, 10:19:18 PM Is Jared Golden basically heavily favored at this point, how much would he have to be trailing by before RCV for things to get dicey?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 10:25:31 PM No one is denying that Tester is a strong incumbent, but he also benefited from a very Democratic-friendly environment, an extremely energized Democratic base (particularly in Missoula, Bozeman, Helena, and Great Falls, since most rural counties actually swung to Rosendale), poor tactical decisions by the NRSC, a nasty primary which weakened Rosendale, a highly competent Democratic state party, and a mediocre/meh (although hardly terrible) opponent. Take away even one of these factors and this could have been a real race, and you’re kidding yourself if you think he would have been heavily favored even in a Clinton midterm.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 07, 2018, 10:26:50 PM I think that SALT cap didn't work out so well for NJ Republicans. 3 lost, 1 won, and 1 is trailing.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 07, 2018, 10:43:02 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 07, 2018, 10:43:47 PM Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses. Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean? I would say he is a juggernaut, his voting record is well to the left of the state, not only voted against Kavanaugh but Gorsuch as well. And unlike other deep Trump state Sens he really went to bat against Trump. A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 10:44:31 PM RIP Greedo RIP Rossi fanboys Remember when Rossi was such a Strong Candidate™ that he would beat Weak Candidate™ Shrill Schrier even in a Democratic tsunami because he carried the district a decade ago? ::) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 10:46:15 PM A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again. Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 07, 2018, 10:47:59 PM Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 07, 2018, 10:53:59 PM A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again. Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic... Maybe Connecticut is a better comparison? It has a Republican streak statewide in the way Montana does a Democratic one. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 07, 2018, 10:55:46 PM A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again. Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic... Maybe Connecticut is a better comparison? It has a Republican streak statewide in the way Montana does a Democratic one. No, Rhode Island is almost perfect, similar PVI's and population, and it has those "moderate dems" quirks in it's voting behavior too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 10:56:30 PM Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace. Ah, I remember the Darcy Burner days. Luckily her losses happened in otherwise amazing nights for Democrats, so it was hard to feel too bad about it. :P Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Webnicz on November 07, 2018, 10:56:35 PM When should Arizona results come in? Tomorrow at 5pm!!! **For those who want data now** Im looking at the results that have been published by precinct and I have to say, I am more impressed than I was intending to be - in regards to Sinema making inroads in the East Valley (CD5) which is a very middle class/college educated trumpland I suppose I will share with you one of my arizona election/data secrets. These are pdf's of the 2018 election and 2016 election. You can search a precinct individually in each to compare. I dont expect most of you to know precincts off the bat so heres some you can search for reference(In parenthesis is the early vote advantage): the ctrl+F search method will be a great friend while doing this Lantana Canyon(+11.9R) Nightingale(+19.2R) ***Sun Groves*** (+11R) - take a look at this one Bayshore (+14.2R) Highland(+33.3R) - do not confuse with the "desert highland" precinct you get the gist keep in mind the numbers that are reporting rn in maricopa are early votes only and e-day votes which averaged +9.2R for maricopa county 2016 election precinct results : https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionarchives/2016/11-08-2016%20Final%20Precinct%20Report.pdf 2018 early/eday precinct results: https://recorder.maricopa.gov/media/Detail.pdf Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 07, 2018, 10:56:41 PM It says something about the "urbanization" of the Dems that of the GOP seats remaining in Oklahoma, OK-1 (centred upon Tulsa) was the closest--OK-2, at one point Oklahoma's "token Dem" seat, is now 2nd best for GOP. Oh, and while there's talk of AOC as the youngest elected female, there's also the matter of Shalala as oldest--and very nearly, the oldest of anyone, ever... https://history.house.gov/HistoricalHighlight/Detail/15032400044?ret=True Ironically enough, Tulsa and OKC were Jimmy Carter's worst areas of the state in 1976, when he won a majority of counties in OK. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 07, 2018, 10:56:51 PM Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days. Yes--- Washington SoS office currently has it at + 13,070 R lead.... Clark County--- (Largest Vote Bank in the CD) Estimated 30k votes OUT Currently a 51-49% D Lead.... (These margins will likely increase with later voters). Not implausible at all to see a 60-40 % D breakdown (+6k D) Cowlitz County --- 2nd largest by vote share is heavily Ancestral DEM (Longview and Camas) and currently + 3.6k R (55-45 R), and shift workers out there tend to be Younger Estimated 10k Votes OUT Not implausible to see a 50-50 split.... Lewis County: =- 3rd largest by Vote share and politically reactionary for over 100 Years where local business leaders murdered Four Labor Activists in cold blood in Centralia, as part of an orchestrated campaign of mob violence, that helped trigger the rise of the "Red Scare" and Palmer Raids of the late 1910s/ early 1920s). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_massacre_(Washington) Estimated 6.8k votes OUT Was (68-32 R) in ballots counted to date.... I would expect PUBS to gain numbers out of Lewis County, and even a 55-45 R number still adds +2k R raw votes. So although it might seem like an early call, reality is that DEMs will likely need to win a HUGE % of outstanding votes from Clark, win 55-45 in outstanding ballots from Cowlitz, *HOPE* the outstanding ballots from Lewis are much less overwhelmingly PUB than the first dump numbers... Additionally there is a giant wildcard in the WA-SoS has ~30k estimated voters as a placeholder.... we don't *know* the exact number yet---- so yes I think the call was premature, considering the estimated % of votes outstanding vs margins, but obviously the PUBs still have a lead on this race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 07, 2018, 11:00:19 PM RIP Greedo RIP Rossi fanboys Remember when Rossi was such a Strong Candidate™ that he would beat Weak Candidate™ Shrill Schrier even in a Democratic tsunami because he carried the district a decade ago? ::) B-b-b-b-but Democrats have NEVER won this seat before!!! And Democrats haven't won NV-GOV since, like, forever man! Another electoral truism bites the dust, Dino Rossi loses again. Refreshing to see Democrats finally win this seat, and come reasonably close in WA-03, showing that Herrera Beutler isn't some unbeatable titan. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 07, 2018, 11:00:26 PM Rick Scott's lead is down to only 26k now in FL. It sounds like Nelson may have the votes in the end. I want to see the Orange Clown's meltdown if Desantis or Scott lose. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2018, 11:03:00 PM Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days. Yes--- Washington SoS office currently has it at + 13,070 R lead.... Clark County--- (Largest Vote Bank in the CD) Estimated 30k votes OUT Currently a 51-49% D Lead.... (These margins will likely increase with later voters). Not implausible at all to see a 60-40 % D breakdown (+6k D) Cowlitz County --- 2nd largest by vote share is heavily Ancestral DEM (Longview and Camas) and currently + 3.6k R (55-45 R), and shift workers out there tend to be Younger Estimated 10k Votes OUT Not implausible to see a 50-50 split.... Lewis County: =- 3rd largest by Vote share and politically reactionary for over 100 Years where local business leaders murdered Four Labor Activists in cold blood in Centralia, as part of an orchestrated campaign of mob violence, that helped trigger the rise of the "Red Scare" and Palmer Raids of the late 1910s/ early 1920s). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_massacre_(Washington) Estimated 6.8k votes OUT Was (68-32 R) in ballots counted to date.... I would expect PUBS to gain numbers out of Lewis County, and even a 55-45 R number still adds +2k R raw votes. So although it might seem like an early call, reality is that DEMs will likely need to win a HUGE % of outstanding votes from Clark, win 55-45 in outstanding ballots from Cowlitz, *HOPE* the outstanding ballots from Lewis are much less overwhelmingly PUB than the first dump numbers... Additionally there is a giant wildcard in the WA-SoS has ~30k estimated voters as a placeholder.... we don't *know* the exact number yet---- so yes I think the call was premature, considering the estimated % of votes outstanding vs margins, but obviously the PUBs still have a lead on this race. Ironically, NYT just joined CNN in calling this one for Herrera Beutler. I doubt that gets overturned although I am in total agreement that the final result will be quite close, maybe even within 1,000 votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2018, 11:03:08 PM RIP Greedo RIP Rossi fanboys Remember when Rossi was such a Strong Candidate™ that he would beat Weak Candidate™ Shrill Schrier even in a Democratic tsunami because he carried the district a decade ago? ::) B-b-b-b-but Democrats have NEVER won this seat before!!! And Democrats haven't won NV-GOV since, like, forever man! Another electoral truism bites the dust, Dino Rossi loses again. Refreshing to see Democrats finally win this seat, and come reasonably close in WA-03, showing that Herrera Beutler isn't some unbeatable titan. Hopefully WA Dems get serious about defeating Herrera Beutler in 2020 and don't give her a free pass like they did from 2012-2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 07, 2018, 11:03:24 PM Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace. Ah, I remember the Darcy Burner days. Luckily her losses happened in otherwise amazing nights for Democrats, so it was hard to feel too bad about it. :P As I see it, this race was an epic battle between two titanic forces, the Democrats' losing streak in WA-08 (an unstoppable force) and Dino Rossi's losing streak (an immovable object). :P Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 07, 2018, 11:04:38 PM Why hasn't NYT called NY-22 for Brindisi?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 07, 2018, 11:05:50 PM When should Arizona results come in? Tomorrow at 5pm!!! **For those who want data now** Im looking at the results that have been published by precinct and I have to say, I am more impressed than I was intending to be - in regards to Sinema making inroads in the East Valley (CD5) which is a very middle class/college educated trumpland I suppose I will share with you one of my arizona election/data secrets. These are pdf's of the 2018 election and 2016 election. You can search a precinct individually in each to compare. I dont expect most of you to know precincts off the bat so heres some you can search for reference(In parenthesis is the early vote advantage): the ctrl+F search method will be a great friend while doing this Lantana Canyon(+11.9R) Nightingale(+19.2R) ***Sun Groves*** (+11R) - take a look at this one Bayshore (+14.2R) Highland(+33.3R) - do not confuse with the "desert highland" precinct you get the gist keep in mind the numbers that are reporting rn in maricopa are early votes only and e-day votes which averaged +9.2R for maricopa county 2016 election precinct results : https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionarchives/2016/11-08-2016%20Final%20Precinct%20Report.pdf 2018 early/eday precinct results: https://recorder.maricopa.gov/media/Detail.pdf Let's say that the uncounted ballot voted the same way as the counted ballot so far, who would win? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on November 07, 2018, 11:11:12 PM Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace. Ah, I remember the Darcy Burner days. Luckily her losses happened in otherwise amazing nights for Democrats, so it was hard to feel too bad about it. :P As I see it, this race was an epic battle between two titanic forces, the Democrats' losing streak in WA-08 (an unstoppable force) and Dino Rossi's losing streak (an immovable object). :P I've seen the same said, writ large, about the Democrats' Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 07, 2018, 11:22:30 PM Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace. Ah, I remember the Darcy Burner days. Luckily her losses happened in otherwise amazing nights for Democrats, so it was hard to feel too bad about it. :P As I see it, this race was an epic battle between two titanic forces, the Democrats' losing streak in WA-08 (an unstoppable force) and Dino Rossi's losing streak (an immovable object). :P I've seen the same said, writ large, about the Democrats' Yeah, whatever else can be said about this midterm, the historically high turnout is worth celebrating. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 07, 2018, 11:24:16 PM A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again. Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic... Maybe Connecticut is a better comparison? It has a Republican streak statewide in the way Montana does a Democratic one. Such comparisons are obviously far from perfect, but I’d say Maine comes closest to it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 11:35:11 PM Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County. Romney's win was very underwhelming. He did about 9% worse as compared to 2012, and as you have noted, lost two counties (and only narrowly won Salt Lake County). Why Romney underperformed to such an extent is beyond me. Some people on here actually thought he would get 80% of the vote! He isn't exactly a long term Utah resident. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 07, 2018, 11:46:19 PM MacArthur going down is one of the top scalps of this election. He was the architect of the Obamacare repeal bill. Few deserve to go down more than him.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 07, 2018, 11:46:39 PM McSally gained a tenth of a point.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 07, 2018, 11:50:03 PM Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County. Romney's win was very underwhelming. He did about 9% worse as compared to 2012, and as you have noted, lost two counties (and only narrowly won Salt Lake County). Why Romney underperformed to such an extent is beyond me. Some people on here actually thought he would get 80% of the vote! He isn't exactly a long term Utah resident. That is true. Romney's carpetbagging may very well have been a factor, and the fact that he failed to win the Republican state convention vote outright earlier this year may have been an indicator of his general election underperformance. But still, I'm surprised that Wilson managed to win not just one but two counties, and that she only lost Salt Lake County to Romney by 3 points. She did better than both Snow and Clinton. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 07, 2018, 11:58:56 PM Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days. Yes--- Washington SoS office currently has it at + 13,070 R lead.... Clark County--- (Largest Vote Bank in the CD) Estimated 30k votes OUT Currently a 51-49% D Lead.... (These margins will likely increase with later voters). Not implausible at all to see a 60-40 % D breakdown (+6k D) Cowlitz County --- 2nd largest by vote share is heavily Ancestral DEM (Longview and Camas) and currently + 3.6k R (55-45 R), and shift workers out there tend to be Younger Estimated 10k Votes OUT Not implausible to see a 50-50 split.... Lewis County: =- 3rd largest by Vote share and politically reactionary for over 100 Years where local business leaders murdered Four Labor Activists in cold blood in Centralia, as part of an orchestrated campaign of mob violence, that helped trigger the rise of the "Red Scare" and Palmer Raids of the late 1910s/ early 1920s). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_massacre_(Washington) Estimated 6.8k votes OUT Was (68-32 R) in ballots counted to date.... I would expect PUBS to gain numbers out of Lewis County, and even a 55-45 R number still adds +2k R raw votes. So although it might seem like an early call, reality is that DEMs will likely need to win a HUGE % of outstanding votes from Clark, win 55-45 in outstanding ballots from Cowlitz, *HOPE* the outstanding ballots from Lewis are much less overwhelmingly PUB than the first dump numbers... Additionally there is a giant wildcard in the WA-SoS has ~30k estimated voters as a placeholder.... we don't *know* the exact number yet---- so yes I think the call was premature, considering the estimated % of votes outstanding vs margins, but obviously the PUBs still have a lead on this race. Ironically, NYT just joined CNN in calling this one for Herrera Beutler. I doubt that gets overturned although I am in total agreement that the final result will be quite close, maybe even within 1,000 votes. Not surprising considering the nature of the district... the closest comparison I might make would be something more akin to OR CD-04.... Difference being that despite the relatively large % of votes from Clark County, it's actually much swingier and more working-class than Lane, without a relatively larger student population. Cowlitz County is more like Columbia County OR, but is a significant % of District Vote Share, and is extremely receptive towards Political Candidates that protect American Jobs from the ILWU members in Longview and Pulp Mill workers in Camas, that see how "Free Trade" has benefited our communities, while we see our paper mills shut down, the trees from our forests dumped onto Giant Cargo ships and sent over to Asia, and most recently China, so we "re-import" recycled toilet paper, and sawdust while our Mills are getting shut down destroying small town and rural communities throughout the Pacific Northwest. The story is not yet over in Communities in the Pacific Northwest, and this is part of the reason why we saw major swings in places where both Democratic and Republican Presidents alike over the past three decades participated in this charade, ever since Bush Sr rammed through MFN with China, Clinton enthusiastically backed much of the same crap NAFTA, Bush Jr was too busy sending our kids to Iraq, destroying the US Economy, then we get Obama who tried to get some decent stuff done but was handcuffed by PUBs after the '10 Elections, and then we get HRC vs DJT? Minor rant aside, but hell these are the types of conversations that happen in the smoking break areas, and break rooms of relatively smaller and tight-knit communities outside of the "Core" and living reality in the "Periphery".... In many parts of the US, we see ourselves as essentially Internal Colonies, dominated by the "Core". This isn't an intellectual debate, so much as it is the perception that many of us have, where it comes to the recognition of where real political power lies, and also the "haves and have nots" in communities that have been suffering for decades, while meanwhile the largest Metro areas of the PacNW whine about their "Great Recession" and the loss of their Housing value, while meanwhile we were fighting to get extension of unemployment benefits, losing our houses, and now that things are rosy and it's "morning in America again". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World-systems_theory Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 12:22:44 AM There’s nothing quite like Longview/Kelso in Columbia Co, Oregon, though.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 08, 2018, 12:46:58 AM Would Republicans be doing this if they had it in the bag?
https://www.azfamily.com/news/arizona-republicans-suing-secretary-of-state-michelle-reagan-all-county/article_7882e55e-e311-11e8-b13a-7fe9d14f2400.html Things are going to get real on Thursday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 08, 2018, 12:47:05 AM Another good thing is that we have a decent-sized majority without those annoying Blue Dogs. Ordinary progressives were able to win, or be competitive, in many districts across the country.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 08, 2018, 01:04:31 AM Another good thing is that we have a decent-sized majority without those annoying Blue Dogs. Ordinary progressives were able to win, or be competitive, in many districts across the country. What do you make of the results in Colorado? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 08, 2018, 02:02:46 AM There’s nothing quite like Longview/Kelso in Columbia Co, Oregon, though. Quoted for Truth... still it's one of the only bridges over the Columbia River between Portland and Astoria on the Oregon side of the State border.... Columbia and Cowlitz are still in many ways Sister counties in many regards, especially considering the traffic over the bridge during shift changes.... One could make a decent argument regarding the increased % of workers commuting to Suburban PDX and to the Port of Portland from SE Columbia County (Which is where recently we have seen the greatest swings towards the Dems). My Daughter and Son-In-Law now live way out in St. Johns, and to commute into PDX drive through the Dock Districts, Warehouses, and Industrial Zoned areas to make their way from US-20 heading East, in order to hit the Freeways that can route them towards the fringes of I-5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Johns,_Portland,_Oregon Columbia County is increasingly becoming a place where Repair and Maintenance (R&M), Facility workers, electricians and trade folks are willing to trade off longer commutes for cheaper Cost of Living (CoL), to be able to afford housing in industries where long hours on the road are billable to the customer as part of a traditional "Port-to-Port" billing structure for skilled workers in certain industries. Sure... you are absolutely correct that Columbia County is very different from Cowlitz County, especially when it comes to historical Labor Movement History (Even in recent years)... https://www.ilwu.org/ilwu-rallies-grain-workers-locked-out-by-mitsui-in-vancouver/ https://www.jacobinmag.com/2014/08/unions-that-used-to-strike/ http://archive.ilwu.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19680705.pdf Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: philly09 on November 08, 2018, 02:12:41 AM Don't look now but... the Florida races aren't over.
Rick Scott 50.1% Bill Nelson 49.9% Nelson is down by only 22,000 votes Ron DeSantis 49.6% Andrew Gillum 49.1% Gillum is down by only 43,000 votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 02:18:18 AM Don't look now but... the Florida races aren't over. Rick Scott 50.1% Bill Nelson 49.9% Nelson is down by only 22,000 votes Ron DeSantis 49.6% Andrew Gillum 49.1% Gillum is down by only 43,000 votes. I give Nelson 1/10 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: philly09 on November 08, 2018, 02:21:11 AM Don't look now but... the Florida races aren't over. Rick Scott 50.1% Bill Nelson 49.9% Nelson is down by only 22,000 votes Ron DeSantis 49.6% Andrew Gillum 49.1% Gillum is down by only 43,000 votes. I give Nelson 1/10 True, but they keep gaining votes and lowering their deficits, Gillum was down by 68,000. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Smith on November 08, 2018, 02:31:32 AM Don't look now but... the Florida races aren't over. Rick Scott 50.1% Bill Nelson 49.9% Nelson is down by only 22,000 votes Ron DeSantis 49.6% Andrew Gillum 49.1% Gillum is down by only 43,000 votes. I give Nelson 1/10 True, but they keep gaining votes and lowering their deficits, Gillum was down by 68,000. Still too high a price for Gillum. But Nelson...improbable, but not implausible. I consider him done. Still better chance for Sinema than either of them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 02:33:24 AM Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?! NUT.
Does anyone know how many votes are left to count in FL? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 08, 2018, 02:51:48 AM Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?! I thought this was quite obvious. Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 02:53:03 AM If nelson and sinema win im willing to call it a blue wave.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 08, 2018, 02:54:06 AM Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?! I thought this was quite obvious. Anyway, the trend here should wory Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason. The late absentees and provisionals are almost always heavily D. If nelson and sinema win im willing to call it a blue wave. This + GA gov runoff + >230 seats, and I'll run with it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 08, 2018, 02:56:44 AM Is there any chance for Dems in CA10/39/45? All the other uncalled races seem to be ticking towards Dems.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Webnicz on November 08, 2018, 02:57:22 AM so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 08, 2018, 02:59:53 AM so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol Seems to be solidly there to stay too. NV is going the way of CO at this rate, and CO has sort of plateaued, but it's still moving left. It'll probably become the next NM soon enough (two to three cycles). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 03:01:42 AM Is there any chance for Dems in CA10/39/45? All the other uncalled races seem to be ticking towards Dems. Harder(D) might actually still be favored in CA-10. Late/absentee usually leans quite a bit Dem in CA. 39 and 45 are tougher. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 03:03:44 AM Is there any chance for Dems in CA10/39/45? All the other uncalled races seem to be ticking towards Dems. Harder(D) might actually still be favored in CA-10. Late/absentee usually leans quite a bit Dem in CA. 39 and 45 are tougher. I was shocked when I saw that total votes were barely above 110 thousand in Denham's district. There must be at least as much as that left to count. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 08, 2018, 03:05:33 AM If CA-39 doesn't switch, hopefully Dems nominate someone better than a Republican lottery winner in 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 03:08:27 AM so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol And "safe R" Amodei won by about the same margin as "toss up" Susie Lee, lol. Why the pundits were moronic enough to think perennial loser Danny Tarkanian of all people had a chance at winning a Democratic held district in a Democratic year...I will never know. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 08, 2018, 03:15:53 AM The gap still looks a bit too wide for Nelson, but if there are a lot more votes to be counted, he may actually have a chance. I'd want to see how much is actually left out, and where it is.
Anyway, I'm happy to see that more posters are joining the "NV is not a Toss-Up" club. :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: America Needs R'hllor on November 08, 2018, 03:16:29 AM If CA-39 doesn't switch, hopefully Dems nominate someone better than a Republican lottery winner in 2020. I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 03:16:31 AM so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol And "safe R" Amodei won by about the same margin as "toss up" Susie Lee, lol. Why the pundits were moronic enough to think perennial loser Danny Tarkanian of all people had a chance at winning a Democratic held district in a Democratic year...I will never know. Technically it was a Trump district. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 03:18:51 AM Looks like Williams will end up doing better than Quist after all.
RATINGS CHANGE: Montana: #Populist <3 -> Neoliberal Shill Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 03:24:03 AM Looks like Williams will end up doing better than Quist after all. RATINGS CHANGE: Montana: #Populist <3 -> Neoliberal Shill GALLATIN COUNTY Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 08, 2018, 03:36:42 AM I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs. Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: America Needs R'hllor on November 08, 2018, 03:58:40 AM I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs. Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality... At least she doesn't have the typical racist mentality. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 08, 2018, 04:27:10 AM I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs. Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality... At least she doesn't have the typical racist mentality. Oops I didn't mean it like that. I should have phrased it better. What I mean is that her attitude towards the LGBT community reminds me of that of many older-generation traditional Asian parents that being gay is a fad 'lifestyle' that is an affront to their family and societal structure and that transgender people have a mental illness and shouldn't be accepted. I'm a gay Asian in a similar situation so I know what I'm talking about. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: America Needs R'hllor on November 08, 2018, 04:37:34 AM I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs. Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality... At least she doesn't have the typical racist mentality. Oops I didn't mean it like that. I should have phrased it better. What I mean is that her attitude towards the LGBT community reminds me of that of many older-generation traditional Asian parents that being gay is a fad 'lifestyle' that is an affront to their family and societal structure and that transgender people have a mental illness and shouldn't be accepted. I'm a gay Asian in a similar situation so I know what I'm talking about. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Oh, I see, thanks for the clarification :) Anyway, I'm all for beating her in 2020, but I just find the concept of a 'some dude' being elected to the House thanks to a lottery prize quite frustrating. I wouldn't mind if he wins and pads our majority more, but at this point, I have no problem conceding this race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 08, 2018, 05:01:55 AM Unexpected win in NM-02, given what was left to count.
In the meanwhile, NYT has called WA-03. Maybe a tad premature? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 05:40:31 AM Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?! I thought this was quite obvious. Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason. I know I’ve been a little pessimistic and have been wrong on some things but does anyone seriously think that Bill Nelson has a snowballs chance in hell. All the votes are counted?... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 05:43:54 AM Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?! I thought this was quite obvious. Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason. I know I’ve been a little pessimistic and have been wrong on some things but does anyone seriously think that Bill Nelson has a snowballs chance in hell. All the votes are counted?... Just because the news sites say "100% in" doesn't mean all the votes have been counted. Despite being "100% in" it went from 50.4-49.6 to 50.2-49.8 and now to 50.1-49.9. Nobody is exactly sure how many votes are left to count. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 08, 2018, 06:07:26 AM Andy Kim officially took the lead. Nice! 11-1! Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity. Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats. The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman. Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew. You shouldn't be. Van Drew's opponent is more of an abominable embarrassment than Trump, and that's saying a lot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 06:26:27 AM Andy Kim officially took the lead. Nice! 11-1! Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity. Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats. The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman. Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew. You shouldn't be. Van Drew's opponent is more of an abominable embarrassment than Trump, and that's saying a lot. How else can you call the people who voted for Grossmann other than deplorables? And of course pundits will accuse Democrats that they don't do enough to reach out to them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 08, 2018, 06:27:21 AM I'd rather have Kim win there at this point tbh. A lottery winner is not what anyone needs. Too bad Kim has the typical Asian homophobe mentality... At least she doesn't have the typical racist mentality. Oops I didn't mean it like that. I should have phrased it better. What I mean is that her attitude towards the LGBT community reminds me of that of many older-generation traditional Asian parents that being gay is a fad 'lifestyle' that is an affront to their family and societal structure and that transgender people have a mental illness and shouldn't be accepted. I'm a gay Asian in a similar situation so I know what I'm talking about. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Oh, I see, thanks for the clarification :) Anyway, I'm all for beating her in 2020, but I just find the concept of a 'some dude' being elected to the House thanks to a lottery prize quite frustrating. I wouldn't mind if he wins and pads our majority more, but at this point, I have no problem conceding this race. Now. Considering her choices between some guy who will vote against Trump 90-plus percent of Time Versus someone who will support him 95-plus percent of the time, and is a nasty religious right homophobe the boot, I don't care that much if Cisneros one despite his obvious failings. He's not under indictment or otherwise corrupt, he's just meh. I'll take meh at votes the right way over someone like him any day of the week and twice on Tuesday. And that includes beating her now and keeping her out of Congress for the next two years rather than saying oh well next time. I said it before and I'll say it again. Democrats need to get the same eye of the tiger Republicans do. It's not just a matter of execution, but also a matter of public perception that the Democrats lags spine and can't pull the trigger when needed. How will voters trust Democrats to stand up for them if they are perceived as not standing up for themselves? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 08, 2018, 06:32:36 AM Andy Kim officially took the lead. Nice! 11-1! Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity. Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats. The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman. Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew. You shouldn't be. Van Drew's opponent is more of an abominable embarrassment than Trump, and that's saying a lot. How else can you call the people who voted for Grossmann other than deplorables? And of course pundits will accuse Democrats that they don't do enough to reach out to them. A substantial number can be deemed collaborators instead of outright deplorables. They're the type who May disagree with what Grossman and Trump say - - that is what they believe - - but they will overcome such reservations because those candidates being deplorable on such matters is not as important to them as issues like taxes and spending. It's not much of a defense for them, trust me. The best analogy I can give is that of the millions of Germans who voted for Hitler, only a tiny percentage actually participated in Torchlight parades or kristallnacht . Most simply didn't want the Socialists to take over, and we're willing to accept Hitler to stop that from occurring. To put it mildly, that's not an excuse. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 08, 2018, 06:46:27 AM Nelson is only down by 21,000 now. Woah. He could actually pull this out.
Also, why do we think Tester was able to get by, even breaking 50%, while McCaskill, Donnelly couldn't? TBH, there WAS a blue wave besides MO and IN. Even in ND, Heitkamp's -10 loss is pretty good for her, all things considered. I mean even NV's +5 margin is pretty shocking. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 08, 2018, 06:48:40 AM Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?! I thought this was quite obvious. Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason. I know I’ve been a little pessimistic and have been wrong on some things but does anyone seriously think that Bill Nelson has a snowballs chance in hell. All the votes are counted?... Just because the news sites say "100% in" doesn't mean all the votes have been counted. Despite being "100% in" it went from 50.4-49.6 to 50.2-49.8 and now to 50.1-49.9. Nobody is exactly sure how many votes are left to count. Another example of this was in NE-02 where Bacon led Eastman 54-46 at "100%" then Bacon's margin went down to 52-48 still at "100%". Now it's 3.2 points. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 08, 2018, 06:58:45 AM Wow, DCCC messed up with pulling out of NE-02. Eastman is only down by 2-3 with a few precincts left.
In terms of 2020, the big swings in PA, MI, WI, and NV bode well for 2020. The suburbs and cities truly turned against Trump. He cannot survive off the rural white base without the suburbs. MO and IN were unfortunate, but the 6-7 loss isn't THAT bad all things considered, considering Trump won by 20 in both those states. That means Dems did come out, just not enough to win/overcome the R lean of the state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 08, 2018, 07:03:56 AM Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 08, 2018, 07:08:19 AM Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ? Can't imagine that winning campaigns do this. Hoping that Sinema can pull out the win. Would be very satisfying to see McSally lose, on top of Sinema being one of the best recruits this cycle. 7pm EST tonight is when more results come in, right? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 07:33:32 AM Nelson is only down by 21,000 now. Woah. He could actually pull this out. For him to pull it out they’d have to be like 60k odd outstanding votes Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 08, 2018, 07:39:30 AM How else can you call the people who voted for Grossmann other than deplorables? And of course pundits will accuse Democrats that they don't do enough to reach out to them. Given how few people follow news well and how undercovered and underadvertised this race was and how uneducated this district's population is, it's possible a large number of Grossman's voters never even heard about his views and just voted party line. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BundouYMB on November 08, 2018, 08:06:24 AM Scott's lead is down to 21K from 30K yesterday morning as ultra-Democrat Broward absentees and early votes continue to trickle in. How Democratic are they? The last batch of 8k counted cut Scott's lead by 4k. There are probably around 40k ballots left to count in Broward, so stay tuned. Palm Beach County should have around 15k ballots to count too.
Moreover, someone on a different forum observed there was an abnormally huge number of people who voted in the gubernatorial race but not the senatorial race in Broward. To be precise: about 20k people voted for Governor but not for Senate. In every other county in Florida the gap was below 2k. There might be some sort of error in counting that a machine recount would expose. That would almost definitely hand the win to Nelson. However, that's far from a certain scenario. This race is far from over yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 08:06:50 AM The gap still looks a bit too wide for Nelson, but if there are a lot more votes to be counted, he may actually have a chance. I'd want to see how much is actually left out, and where it is. Anyway, I'm happy to see that more posters are joining the "NV is not a Toss-Up" club. :) Nelson is probably going to get to a hand count recount. He needs the margin to get below .25%. Harder to see that happen with the Governors race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 08, 2018, 08:09:40 AM Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ? McSally has actually gained a bit. It went from a 0.9 to 1.0 for McSally, with Maricopa reporting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 08:19:01 AM Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ? McSally has actually gained a bit. It went from a 0.9 to 1.0 for McSally, with Maricopa reporting. Totally relevant with the question asked above. ::) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: American2020 on November 08, 2018, 08:24:13 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 08, 2018, 08:30:33 AM Great! Woodall is only up ~1,000 in GA-06. I wonder how many absentee and late votes are left? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 08, 2018, 08:38:15 AM OMG. Karen Handel going down is amazing. She's also legitimately horrible and extremely bigotted.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 08:39:58 AM OMG. Karen Handel going down is amazing. She's also legitimately horrible and extremely bigotted. RIP Karen Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 08:40:15 AM Remember when Weak Candidate™ Lucy McBath made that race likely/safe R? LOL!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 08:41:19 AM I'm old enough to remember the hot takes in the GA-06 special that if Handel won, she'd lock down the seat for Republicans for years to come.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 08, 2018, 08:41:26 AM Wow, the lady screaming Gun Control that everyone thought was a weak candidate won? How surprising, its almost like she had more issues and more dimensions than Atlas thought she did. I mean, how could she win, she wasnt some moderate, centrist like Ossoff! Thats who we need for these districts, people who can win seats easily for the D party, like Jeff Van Drew! /s
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 08, 2018, 08:44:52 AM *One week ago*
() Karen Handel: Whew, that was a close election I squeaked out against Ossof last year. But I'm finally getting into the groove of this whole "Representative" thing. I've just put down a lease on a place here in DC for me and my family to live, I'm making friends and connections and I've found this nice little coffee shop. DC is starting to feel like home! I sure hope nothing happens that forces me to move back to Atlanta - I just forwarded all my subscriptions here! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 08:51:21 AM He also said that TX-23 is Likely R. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 08:56:02 AM Why toss-up in NJ-03?
Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 08, 2018, 09:00:23 AM Why toss-up in NJ-03? Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07? I think they already called that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 09:01:05 AM Why toss-up in NJ-03? Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07? I think I saw somewhere that there might be some votes left, not sure. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 08, 2018, 09:01:23 AM He also said that TX-23 is Likely R. TX-23 is so close, the difference is less than 700 votes, I'm really hoping that one can still flip. Yep, NC-09 is gone, McCready conceded yesterday. This is what incredibly egregious gerrymandering will get you, same as in Ohio. No flips in a 30+ seat change year in two of the top ten largest states in the country. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 09:01:33 AM *One week ago* () Karen Handel: Whew, that was a close election I squeaked out against Ossof last year. But I'm finally getting into the groove of this whole "Representative" thing. I've just put down a lease on a place here in DC for me and my family to live, I'm making friends and connections and I've found this nice little coffee shop. DC is starting to feel like home! I sure hope nothing happens that forces me to move back to Atlanta - I just forwarded all my subscriptions here! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gustaf on November 08, 2018, 09:04:01 AM Is there anywhere that is updating the vote Counts in the outstanding races?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Donnie on November 08, 2018, 09:04:06 AM Scott currently with 1 vote lead in Monroe Co. FL
R. Scott 18 021 votes B. Nelson 18 020 votes Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 09:06:23 AM Arizona looking to be out of reach.
Florida obviously shouldn’t even be a discussion. How many total house seats we looking at? 229? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 09:08:12 AM Why toss-up in NJ-03? Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07? I think they already called that. None of NYT, CNN or Politico has GA-07 called. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 08, 2018, 09:15:03 AM Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ? McSally has actually gained a bit. It went from a 0.9 to 1.0 for McSally, with Maricopa reporting. Totally relevant with the question asked above. ::) Pretty sure those votes were the final tallies from the rural counties and not Maricopa. Reckon AZ comes down to whether the outstanding ballots trend in line with the votes already counted in those counties or towards one of the candidates. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 08, 2018, 09:19:07 AM Scott currently with 1 vote lead in Monroe Co. FL R. Scott 18 021 votes B. Nelson 18 020 votes That was true also on election night. Anyway 538 also rates NY-27 as Likely R. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 08, 2018, 09:19:57 AM Why toss-up in NJ-03? Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07? I think they already called that. None of NYT, CNN or Politico has GA-07 called. FiveThirtyEight called it already. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 08, 2018, 09:22:47 AM NM having a completely D house delegation is something to behold in the map!
Also, I think we're looking at something like 232D. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 08, 2018, 09:27:46 AM Arizona looking to be out of reach. Florida obviously shouldn’t even be a discussion. How many total house seats we looking at? 229? Can you please stop trolling. AZ has like 600,000+ votes left to count. And FL is literally at like a 21k margin. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 08, 2018, 09:29:44 AM Arizona looking to be out of reach. Florida obviously shouldn’t even be a discussion. How many total house seats we looking at? 229? Can you please stop trolling. AZ has like 600,000+ votes left to count. And FL is literally at like a 21k margin. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 09:35:19 AM Democrats could win the Ag Commission job in Florida. Only down .06%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 09:38:18 AM Arizona looking to be out of reach. Florida obviously shouldn’t even be a discussion. How many total house seats we looking at? 229? Can you please stop trolling. AZ has like 600,000+ votes left to count. And FL is literally at like a 21k margin. 600k? Is there any official source because the numbers I’ve seen are everywhere. I was under the impression that the area the votes are from should Lean McSally.... And Florida might be out of votes so 21k might as well be 21 million. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Devout Centrist on November 08, 2018, 09:44:07 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 09:46:25 AM Arizona looking to be out of reach. Florida obviously shouldn’t even be a discussion. How many total house seats we looking at? 229? Can you please stop trolling. AZ has like 600,000+ votes left to count. And FL is literally at like a 21k margin. This. And please stop quoting all these trolls we already have on ignore. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 08, 2018, 09:53:16 AM Arizona looking to be out of reach. Florida obviously shouldn’t even be a discussion. How many total house seats we looking at? 229? How did you not learn your lesson yesterday with Montana? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 10:00:05 AM Still 20,000 absentee votes left to count in GA-07:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 08, 2018, 10:02:31 AM The House keeps looking better and better for Dems. We could possibly reach 234.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 08, 2018, 10:04:20 AM Arizona looking to be out of reach. Florida obviously shouldn’t even be a discussion. How many total house seats we looking at? 229? How did you not learn your lesson yesterday with Montana? () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 08, 2018, 10:29:23 AM Still 20,000 absentee votes left to count in GA-07: So the Democrat getting 52.5% of absentee ballots in an election where the underlying vote was essentially a tie will flip this seat? Sounds eminently doable. So what am I missing as to why fivethirtyeight calls this seat likely r? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate)m Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 10:37:27 AM Arizona looking to be out of reach. Florida obviously shouldn’t even be a discussion. How many total house seats we looking at? 229? How did you not learn your lesson yesterday with Montana? Hope to learn my lesson on arizona. We need that seat badly Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 10:43:33 AM Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach. I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 10:47:00 AM Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach. I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 10:48:10 AM Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach. I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close. Maybe not, but it will likely get under the threshold for a hand recount, which would be interesting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 11:01:47 AM The House keeps looking better and better for Dems. We could possibly reach 234. I see 229-230. Where do you see those 4 extra Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 11:05:27 AM Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach. I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close. Maybe not, but it will likely get under the threshold for a hand recount, which would be interesting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 11:08:36 AM Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach. I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close. Maybe not, but it will likely get under the threshold for a hand recount, which would be interesting. I don't disagree with you, but as a political junkie I love it regardless of the outcome. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: alomas on November 08, 2018, 11:11:23 AM Shame there are no key race alerts by Wolf Blitzer. It would have been very interesting!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 11:11:43 AM Seems like Marc Elias has major concerns about the significant under voting in Broward county, i.e: Gillum having more votes than Nelson yet Nelson was at the top of the ticket. Which is why he believes a hand recount is so imperative.
It certainly makes sense, no other county seems to have had this issue except Broward. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 08, 2018, 11:11:58 AM Yeah, 1500-2000 votes is about the ceiling that Nelson could plausibly hope to make up in an actual recount. Al Franken made up 500-600 votes in the MN recount in 2008, in a state 3-4x smaller.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 11:13:33 AM The House keeps looking better and better for Dems. We could possibly reach 234. I see 229-230. Where do you see those 4 extra They won 224 and lead in 6. Of the seats they are currently behind in, they should win ME-02 and CA-10, and have a chance in CA-39, CA-45, and GA-07. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 11:14:27 AM Seems like Marc Elias has major concerns about the significant under voting in Broward county, i.e: Gillum having more votes than Nelson yet Nelson was at the top of the ticket. Which is why he believes a hand recount is so imperative. It certainly makes sense, no other county seems to have had this issue except Broward. The reason for the undervoting likely is that the Governor's race was at the top of the ballot while the Senate race was tucked in the lower left corner in Broward County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 11:15:19 AM Also, Rick Scott's campaign sounds nervous:
Quote “Let's be clear: When Elias says ‘win,’ he means ‘steal.’ It is sad and embarrassing that Bill Nelson would resort to these low tactics after the voters have clearly spoken. Maybe next, he'll start ranting that Russians stole the election from him” Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 11:16:19 AM Unless there is a huge error in the estimates of how much vote is left, Scott has won
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 11:17:15 AM Also, Rick Scott's campaign sounds nervous: Quote “Let's be clear: When Elias says ‘win,’ he means ‘steal.’ It is sad and embarrassing that Bill Nelson would resort to these low tactics after the voters have clearly spoken. Maybe next, he'll start ranting that Russians stole the election from him” Not exactly sounding confident. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 11:17:45 AM Seems like Marc Elias has major concerns about the significant under voting in Broward county, i.e: Gillum having more votes than Nelson yet Nelson was at the top of the ticket. Which is why he believes a hand recount is so imperative. It certainly makes sense, no other county seems to have had this issue except Broward. The reason for the undervoting likely is that the Governor's race was at the top of the ballot while the Senate race was tucked in the lower left corner in Broward County. It would be interesting to see if there was undervoting in the House races, which were in the same part of the ballot as the Senate race. Otherwise, it might be a scanning error. If so, incompetent from Brenda Snipes strikes again. The FLDP really needs to get rid of her. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 08, 2018, 11:17:56 AM Also, Rick Scott's campaign sounds nervous: Quote “Let's be clear: When Elias says ‘win,’ he means ‘steal.’ It is sad and embarrassing that Bill Nelson would resort to these low tactics after the voters have clearly spoken. Maybe next, he'll start ranting that Russians stole the election from him” A FL Republican talking about framing a full count as "stealing" is peak irony. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 11:20:01 AM Also:
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 11:20:07 AM My friend in the Nelson camp just said "the numbers are looking better and better for us" but that it'll be really close. Scott camp is nervous because they see the numbers tightening too.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 08, 2018, 11:21:32 AM Huh interesting map. Why so many in that portion of the countyl? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 11:23:45 AM There’s got to be an error there, right? No way one district is way worse than everything else exactly on its borders. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 11:26:09 AM This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 08, 2018, 11:28:56 AM Yea that ballot is dumb but I still think people are dumber for missing the Senate/Rep section.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 08, 2018, 11:35:27 AM This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018 Is that Haitian? I had heard about the "problem" with the Senate race being on the bottom left. But if anyone missed that, it seems like the voter's fault. That can't be the only thing going on if the undervotes are so clustered in one CD. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 11:36:05 AM This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018 That's for an election in FL-20, though. If you look at the map, the problems were all in FL-24. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 11:36:27 AM This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018 That's for an election in FL-20, though. If you look at the map, the problems were all in FL-24. I couldn't find the FL-24 ballot easily online. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 08, 2018, 11:37:42 AM This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018 That's for an election in FL-20, though. If you look at the map, the problems were all in FL-24. I couldn't find the FL-24 ballot easily online. Ah, the cover-up us always worse than the crime!! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 11:40:09 AM Brenda Snipes, the election commissioner for Broward, says she doesn't know how many ballots are left to count. The website says 20,000 but it wouldn't surprise me if there were more than that.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 11:46:20 AM This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018 That's for an election in FL-20, though. If you look at the map, the problems were all in FL-24. I couldn't find the FL-24 ballot easily online. Right, but the implication is that the problem is with placement of the races. However, the issues are confined to FL-24, so if the ballot design in FL-20 is the same as in FL-24, it can't be the ballot design that was the issue. If the ballot design is different, we'd need to see what the FL-24 ballots looked like, including ideally examples of actual ballots that undervoted to see if it really was voter error (unfortunate but it happens) or a problem with the ballots themselves (e.g., some of them actually didn't include the Senate race, which would invalidate the entire election) or with the counting of the ballots (which would presumably be fixed in a recount). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 11:46:37 AM About 10,000 votes left in Palm Beach County:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 08, 2018, 11:48:50 AM This thread is toxic for my mental health. How am I supposed to grieve with all of this hopey changey stuff :|
Maybe an amazing thing happens and Nelson and/or Gillum ends up winning, but I've learned to not invest much hope in recounts or post-election ballot counting (other than in CA) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 11:49:45 AM Not relevant to most of you but I expect Nikki Fried, Dem candidate for Commissioner of Agriculture, to win once all of the votes are in. She's currently down by 4,000 votes, the closest of any of the statewide races.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 08, 2018, 11:51:19 AM The 24th CD race was uncontested, so that race wouldn't even appear on the ballots in that districts. I wonder if that somehow screwed up the format of the other races on those ballots.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr. Smith on November 08, 2018, 11:52:23 AM Looks like Williams will end up doing better than Quist after all. RATINGS CHANGE: Montana: #Populist <3 -> Neoliberal Shill No Mark Wicks this time. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: windjammer on November 08, 2018, 11:55:16 AM Unless there is a huge error in the estimates of how much vote is left, Scott has won Seriously, I don't want to be a d*** but I don't believe Nelson is going to win this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 11:55:20 AM The 24th CD race was uncontested, so that race wouldn't even appear on the ballots in that districts. I wonder if that somehow screwed up the format of the other races on those ballots. Yeah I'd like to see a CD24 Broward ballot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 11:55:30 AM The 24th CD race was uncontested, so that race wouldn't even appear on the ballots in that districts. I wonder if that somehow screwed up the format of the other races on those ballots. FL-20 was also uncontested but still appeared on the ballot in the example RI provided upthread. But still, need to see the FL-24 ballot, including some actual undervotes in case there were misprinted ballots. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 11:57:06 AM ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Regardless of the reason, Broward County election administration is clearly incompetent. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 12:00:49 PM ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Regardless of the reason, Broward County election administration is clearly incompetent. True, and not news. Brenda Snipes has been messing up elections for 15 years now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 12:01:19 PM Unless there is a huge error in the estimates of how much vote is left, Scott has won Seriously, I don't want to be a d*** but I don't believe Nelson is going to win this. They thing is we don't know how many votes there are left, if we did I might agree with you. As of right now we know there are at least ~33,000 votes in very Democratic areas. It's possible, if not probable, that there is more out there. Plus you have provisionals. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 12:02:30 PM Marc Elias was lead counsel for Al Franken during the 2008 MN recount.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 08, 2018, 12:05:08 PM ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Regardless of the reason, Broward County election administration is clearly incompetent. True, and not news. Brenda Snipes has been messing up elections for 15 years now. She's always in the news for one screwup or another. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pollster on November 08, 2018, 12:07:45 PM AZ GOP is worried (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/arizona-gop-sues-limit-mail-ballots-senate-race-n933866?fbclid=IwAR0oXfLFmpb4kdv02Esfe-Dy1qD06MMxr4ezmsbxbbxcXnI1qqY1i_I5PG4)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 12:08:06 PM Marc Elias was lead counsel for Al Franken during the 2008 MN recount. And for Roy Cooper two years ago Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 08, 2018, 12:13:13 PM Wow, Torres Small won!!!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 08, 2018, 12:14:05 PM Wow, Torres Small won!!!!!! Republican delegation from NM = 0. 8-O Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OBD on November 08, 2018, 12:15:17 PM Wow Handel went down
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 12:15:36 PM Wow, Torres Small won!!!!!! Republican delegation from NM = 0. 8-O Name a more classic duo Steve Pearce and running for statewide office during a democrat leaning year and also losing his congressional district in the process. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 12:16:24 PM Wow Handel went down So democrats wanted Ryans seat the most in 2016 instead they got Gingrich's Hasterts and Hw bush's. and RINO Tom says nothing changed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 08, 2018, 12:20:01 PM Looking at the NYT map, Scott has a 21,986 votes lead.
There are 7 precints to be counted, all in Bay county (where Scott leads 46,595 vs 16,659 with 37/44 counts), so I guess the lead will end up being around 25,000 votes. That's without considering any provisionals or the likes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 08, 2018, 12:20:48 PM Maybe we did not get Ryan's seat, but it is a sign of the shifting of the political climate in this country when Daddy Bush's old cd he repped in congress just flipped.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 12:24:03 PM Looking at the NYT map, Scott has a 21,986 votes lead. There are 7 precints to be counted, all in Bay county (where Scott leads 46,595 vs 16,659 with 37/44 counts), so I guess the lead will end up being around 25,000 votes. There are zero votes left to count in Bay County. The precinct counts are off because Bay County (hit hard by Hurricane Michael) only had six "mega" precincts open as compared to the typical 44 smaller precincts they would have had otherwise. (A lot of typical precinct locations, like schools, etc., were not reopened yet, so they had to consolidate precincts.) Not sure where the 37 figure is coming from but Bay is done. Remaining votes are all from Broward and maybe some in Palm Beach and Duval (unclear, some people said everything in those two were counted last night, other sources have said there are still some in one or both). They're all mail-in ballots so don't show up in precinct counts. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 08, 2018, 12:24:50 PM ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Regardless of the reason, Broward County election administration is clearly incompetent. They've had 18 years to get this right! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 12:25:34 PM Looking at the NYT map, Scott has a 21,986 votes lead. There are 7 precints to be counted, all in Bay county (where Scott leads 46,595 vs 16,659 with 37/44 counts), so I guess the lead will end up being around 25,000 votes. There are zero votes left to count in Bay County. The precinct counts are off because Bay County (hit hard by Hurricane Michael) only had six "mega" precincts open as compared to the typical 44 smaller precincts they would have had otherwise. (A lot of typical precinct locations, like schools, etc., were not reopened yet, so they had to consolidate precincts.) Not sure where the 37 figure is coming from but Bay is done. Remaining votes are all from Broward and maybe some in Palm Beach and Duval (unclear, some people said everything in those two were counted last night, other sources have said there are still some in one or both). They're all mail-in ballots so don't show up in precinct counts. I wouldn't say zero votes. Bay, as with most counties, has not finished counting provisionals and military ballots: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 12:30:09 PM Looking at the NYT map, Scott has a 21,986 votes lead. There are 7 precints to be counted, all in Bay county (where Scott leads 46,595 vs 16,659 with 37/44 counts), so I guess the lead will end up being around 25,000 votes. There are zero votes left to count in Bay County. The precinct counts are off because Bay County (hit hard by Hurricane Michael) only had six "mega" precincts open as compared to the typical 44 smaller precincts they would have had otherwise. (A lot of typical precinct locations, like schools, etc., were not reopened yet, so they had to consolidate precincts.) Not sure where the 37 figure is coming from but Bay is done. Remaining votes are all from Broward and maybe some in Palm Beach and Duval (unclear, some people said everything in those two were counted last night, other sources have said there are still some in one or both). They're all mail-in ballots so don't show up in precinct counts. I wouldn't say zero votes. Bay, as with most counties, has not finished counting provisionals and military ballots: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus Well, okay, but that's not unique to Bay. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 12:37:42 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on November 08, 2018, 01:02:29 PM Remember when Weak Candidate™ Lucy McBath made that race likely/safe R? LOL! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 01:12:50 PM Remember when Weak Candidate™ Lucy McBath made that race likely/safe R? LOL! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 08, 2018, 01:18:01 PM Remember when Weak Candidate™ Lucy McBath made that race likely/safe R? LOL! i am reasonably sure, that [McBath being nominated] increased Republican chances of holding these districts. Exactly because in this case "stronger, grassroots-backed women" are "bold progressives" in non-progressive districts. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 01:26:40 PM Honestly the Ga 6th special election looking back on it was easily the worst competetive federal special election for the dems(The utah and texas one were worse but the dems didn't care) The fact they couldn't win a special election in a trump +1 district was kind of embarrassing and it should have been a freebie. I feel like the dems got whiffed and didn't want to try again until this late.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 01:29:03 PM Honestly the Ga 6th special election looking back on it was easily the worst competetive federal special election for the dems(The utah and texas one were worse but the dems didn't care) The fact they couldn't win a special election in a trump +1 district was kind of embarrassing and it should have been a freebie. I feel like the dems got whiffed and didn't want to try again until this late. Scalise shooting shifted GA-6 special Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 08, 2018, 01:33:12 PM Honestly the Ga 6th special election looking back on it was easily the worst competetive federal special election for the dems(The utah and texas one were worse but the dems didn't care) The fact they couldn't win a special election in a trump +1 district was kind of embarrassing and it should have been a freebie. I feel like the dems got whiffed and didn't want to try again until this late. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 01:34:41 PM The AZ and FL GOPs sound... nervous.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 01:57:56 PM The AZ and FL GOPs sound... nervous. Arizona GOP might have a reason to be Florida on the other hand... I don’t get it Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 08, 2018, 02:02:02 PM The AZ and FL GOPs sound... nervous. Arizona GOP might have a reason to be Florida on the other hand... I don’t get it They went from being 100% sure that Scott had it to... at the very least, less than 100%, even if it's 98-99%. Even if Nelson needs a miracle to win, the fact that it's gone from being over to not quite being over definitely warrants Republicans at least being nervous. They seem much more nervous in Arizona, though, which makes sense. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 02:04:35 PM The AZ and FL GOPs sound... nervous. Arizona GOP might have a reason to be Florida on the other hand... I don’t get it They went from being 100% sure that Scott had it to... at the very least, less than 100%, even if it's 98-99%. Even if Nelson needs a miracle to win, the fact that it's gone from being over to not quite being over definitely warrants Republicans at least being nervous. They seem much more nervous in Arizona, though, which makes sense. I think they really want to avoid a hand recount in Florida, because anything can happen at that point. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 02:06:10 PM The AZ and FL GOPs sound... nervous. Arizona GOP might have a reason to be Florida on the other hand... I don’t get it They went from being 100% sure that Scott had it to... at the very least, less than 100%, even if it's 98-99%. Even if Nelson needs a miracle to win, the fact that it's gone from being over to not quite being over definitely warrants Republicans at least being nervous. They seem much more nervous in Arizona, though, which makes sense. I think they really want to avoid a hand recount in Florida, because anything can happen at that point. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 02:06:19 PM Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 02:07:24 PM FL Governor’s race officially at the recount threshold-
https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteBlue/comments/9vctfa/andrew_gillum_officially_going_to_recount/?st=JO8YRUL2&sh=51b43844 (https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteBlue/comments/9vctfa/andrew_gillum_officially_going_to_recount/?st=JO8YRUL2&sh=51b43844) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 02:12:47 PM Senate race margin is now down to 17,344 votes; Nelson netted around 4,500 from this dump. Broward and Palm Beach are still showing as not being done counting.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 02:14:44 PM The AZ and FL GOPs sound... nervous. Arizona GOP might have a reason to be Florida on the other hand... I don’t get it They went from being 100% sure that Scott had it to... at the very least, less than 100%, even if it's 98-99%. Even if Nelson needs a miracle to win, the fact that it's gone from being over to not quite being over definitely warrants Republicans at least being nervous. They seem much more nervous in Arizona, though, which makes sense. I think they really want to avoid a hand recount in Florida, because anything can happen at that point. Yeah, but there's always a risk of a machine error somewhere that would only be caught by a hand recount. The undervotes in the FL-24 part of Broward County are the sort of thing that could be exactly that. Anyway, we'll find out. The Senate race is now in hand recount territory (margin is 0.22%). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: InheritTheWind on November 08, 2018, 02:15:56 PM Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race: If it holds, this would be the first statewide office win for the FL Dems since Nelson in 2012, no? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 08, 2018, 02:16:31 PM Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race: Looks like we’ll at least have 1 statewide office holder in the sunshine state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 08, 2018, 02:19:14 PM Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race: Looks like we’ll at least have 1 statewide office holder in the sunshine state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 02:20:22 PM Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race: Looks like we’ll at least have 1 statewide office holder in the sunshine state. I'm gonna take a shot in the dark and say she did ever so slightly better with the DINOS in the panhandle. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 02:20:45 PM Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race: Looks like we’ll at least have 1 statewide office holder in the sunshine state. Unknown to who? Nikki got publicity for her stances on marijuana and on standing up to the NRA. She got a lot of press after multiple banks shut down her campaign accounts due to her stances on medical marijuana. Her opponent was more unknown. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 08, 2018, 02:25:51 PM Nelson might actually win this ...
Most counties have not even started their provisional vote count yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dereich on November 08, 2018, 02:28:34 PM Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race: Looks like we’ll at least have 1 statewide office holder in the sunshine state. I wouldn't really call her unknown. I got campaign emails from her on email accounts that have nothing to do with politics. I also got my only Democratic robocall of the race for her. Plus, I think I saw more Fried signs than for anyone other than MAYBE Gillum here. I'd argue that she easily ran the best Democratic campaign in Duval county. If she did that well elsewhere the only surprise is that she isn't leading by more. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 02:28:37 PM Nelson might actually win this ... Most counties have not even started their provisional vote count yet. Not to mention, Palm Beach (VBM) and Broward (VBM and EV) are still counting votes. The only countries who have counted provisional ballots are small rural counties. The deadline to cure ballots is 5PM today and let me tell you, Dems are out in force knocking and calling every provisional ballot to get it fixed. They've organized in every urban county to go door to door in the past 36 hours. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 02:28:56 PM Nelson is in hand recount margin now, so if there is a machine error with FL-24/Broward, it will hopefully be found.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 02:29:35 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 02:30:47 PM Nelson might actually win this ... Most counties have not even started their provisional vote count yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 08, 2018, 02:31:45 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 02:36:37 PM Nelson might actually win this ... Most counties have not even started their provisional vote count yet. Provisionals are actually usually very Democratic. But there are not many of them, and many will not be verified, so we're probably looking at net maybe 2,000 votes for Nelson from all of the provisionals statewide. Which means he needs a net of about 15,000 votes from the remaining Broward/Palm Beach ballots to tie. Without knowing exactly how many remain uncounted in Broward in particular, it's hard to say if that's unrealistic, but there would probably need to be about 35,000 in Broward and 10,000 in Palm Beach for Nelson to reach that number (assuming the remaining ballots break exactly the same way Broward and Palm Beach have broken so far), which seems plausible given how they've been reporting new results thus far in consistent batches of about the same size but hardly certain. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 02:38:07 PM Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 02:40:21 PM Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals. They think that 30K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 08, 2018, 02:41:52 PM Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals. They think that 23K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design. A 23k undercount would singlehandedly flip this whole thing, particularly in that this whole situation shouldn't have happened in the first place. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 02:43:27 PM Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals. They think that 23K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design. A 23k undercount would singlehandedly flip this whole thing, particularly in that this whole situation shouldn't have happened in the first place. Sorry, it's 30K Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 02:45:36 PM Karma dictates that Nelson wins by 537 votes after a recount.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tx_Longhorn on November 08, 2018, 02:46:36 PM Anyone have a rough estimate of how many votes are out still in Broward County? Enough to close the gap prior to recount or unlikely?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 08, 2018, 02:47:41 PM Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals. They think that 23K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design. A 23k undercount would singlehandedly flip this whole thing, particularly in that this whole situation shouldn't have happened in the first place. Sorry, it's 30K Even more so Gillum may still be in this, but it's gonna be a lot harder for him; he will have to rely on provisionals and absentees. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 02:49:14 PM Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 08, 2018, 02:50:08 PM Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 02:51:48 PM C'mon Florida, come through for Dems for once.
Let there be just one year when you go Dem by .01%, rather than going R by .01%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 02:52:05 PM Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals. They think that 23K undercount is due to a machine error and not ballot design. A 23k undercount would singlehandedly flip this whole thing, particularly in that this whole situation shouldn't have happened in the first place. Sorry, it's 30K If it's machine error, this is over and Nelson wins barring something ridiculous like Brenda Snipes destroying the paper ballots (which has happened before...). The FL-24 part of Broward County is extremely Democratic (heavily black), ballots there would be 85%+ Nelson. And we're in hand recount territory now, so any hand recount would catch the problem. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 08, 2018, 02:52:08 PM Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?! I thought this was quite obvious. Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason. Usually, but not "always". Nevada Sen 2012, South Dakota Sen 2004. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 08, 2018, 02:52:34 PM Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter. What else is new? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BigSerg on November 08, 2018, 02:52:35 PM Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter. Stop please, this damn race must be declared. I'm tired of hearing that Nelson has this Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 02:56:17 PM C'mon Florida, come through for Dems for once. Let there be just one year when you go Dem by .01%, rather than going R by .01%. 2012 Presidential results in Florida: Barack Obama 50.01% ;) (Romney got 49.13%, the rest to minor candidates.) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BigSerg on November 08, 2018, 02:56:49 PM Is there anyone who really thinks that such a big mistake happened? It does not count the opinion of the desperate democrats.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 02:56:50 PM Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter. Stop please, this damn race must be declared. I'm tired of hearing that Nelson has this You'd rather something be declared quickly than wait for a full accounting of votes? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 08, 2018, 02:57:18 PM The final returns have changed the result in NM-2. Xochitl Torres Small is now the winner and Dems have all three seats in New Mexico.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 02:58:54 PM Is there anyone who really thinks that such a big mistake happened? It does not count the opinion of the desperate democrats. There haven't been any mistakes... the final counting of the vote is just taking place. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 02:59:12 PM Anyone have a rough estimate of how many votes are out still in Broward County? Enough to close the gap prior to recount or unlikely? We don't know, and Broward County's head of elections has said publicly (yesterday, I think) that she also doesn't know (indicative of the level of extreme incompetence in her office). Ignoring the undervote debacle, there would need to be around 45,000 votes left just in Broward for Nelson to tie, although we know there are some uncounted in Palm Beach also, so he might be able to get by with 35,000 in Broward and 12,000 in Palm Beach, e.g. Those numbers don't seem unrealistic at all (e.g., they would leave Broward and Palm Beach with turnout numbers around average for statewide while right now Broward is somewhat below average and Palm Beach in the range of average), but who knows. And that is before provisionals, which are mostly uncounted except in a few rural counties, though Nelson should not expect to gain more than around 2,000 net votes from provisionals statewide. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 02:59:36 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 08, 2018, 02:59:50 PM Hmm, FL only has some 10.000 to 20.000 provisional ballots.
Compared with smaller OH, which has more than 100.000 left to count ... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 08, 2018, 03:01:15 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 03:02:00 PM Don't talk about that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 03:02:53 PM Anyone have a rough estimate of how many votes are out still in Broward County? Enough to close the gap prior to recount or unlikely? We don't know, and Broward County's head of elections has said publicly (yesterday, I think) that she also doesn't know (indicative of the level of extreme incompetence in her office). Ignoring the undervote debacle, there would need to be around 45,000 votes left just in Broward for Nelson to tie, although we know there are some uncounted in Palm Beach also, so he might be able to get by with 35,000 in Broward and 12,000 in Palm Beach, e.g. Those numbers don't seem unrealistic at all (e.g., they would leave Broward and Palm Beach with turnout numbers around average for statewide while right now Broward is somewhat below average and Palm Beach in the range of average), but who knows. And that is before provisionals, which are mostly uncounted except in a few rural counties, though Nelson should not expect to gain more than around 2,000 net votes from provisionals statewide. Jeb Bush appointee, please clap. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BigSerg on November 08, 2018, 03:03:01 PM This could reach the supreme court?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 08, 2018, 03:04:21 PM This could reach the supreme court? I'm sure the Supreme Court would have every reason to impartially mediate a disputed election in Florida. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ronnie on November 08, 2018, 03:05:25 PM Any idea as to how UT-04 will end up? That one looks like it might be a nail biter in the end.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 03:07:42 PM Any idea as to how UT-04 will end up? That one looks like it might be a nail biter in the end. McAdams has enough of a lead that this isn't really in doubt. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 08, 2018, 03:09:40 PM Any idea as to how UT-04 will end up? That one looks like it might be a nail biter in the end. There is 30% of the vote outstanding and McAdams leads 51.3%-48.7%, just a hair over 5,000 votes. The Salt Lake Tribune just put out an article an hour ago saying Love still has a narrow path, but that it's highly unlikely. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/08/rep-mia-love-could-still/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 08, 2018, 03:10:30 PM It would be hilarious if she came back and won, after Trump's comments about her in that press conference yesterday.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storebought on November 08, 2018, 03:12:35 PM It would be hilarious if she came back and won, after Trump's comments about her in that press conference yesterday. Even more so as she will vote exactly the way she is told. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 08, 2018, 03:17:56 PM My SD going to recount for a supermajority. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 03:19:24 PM My SD going to recount for a supermajority. Come on Julie! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 03:19:48 PM My SD going to recount for a supermajority. Has there been any talk of repealing Right to Work in Nevada as a gift to the Culinary Union? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 08, 2018, 03:22:29 PM My SD going to recount for a supermajority. Has there been any talk of repealing Right to Work in Nevada as a gift to the Culinary Union? Any Democratic trifecta that doesn't immediately repeal RTW deserves everything it gets in the next Republican wave. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: VPH on November 08, 2018, 03:26:18 PM So does Jared Golden pull off a win?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 03:26:47 PM So does Jared Golden pull off a win? Given RCV, probably. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 08, 2018, 03:27:19 PM My SD going to recount for a supermajority. Has there been any talk of repealing Right to Work in Nevada as a gift to the Culinary Union? There’s been speculation from pundits but nothing yet. They’ll likely dismantle the GOP’s anti-labor laws passed when there was a trifecta first but I expect it to happen. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 08, 2018, 03:36:50 PM Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ? McSally has actually gained a bit. It went from a 0.9 to 1.0 for McSally, with Maricopa reporting. Totally relevant with the question asked above. ::) A good reason notto file a lawsuit. ;) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 03:37:48 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 03:38:29 PM There better be D lawyers galore down in Broward rn figuring out the 30k undervote. Was there an underbite in the other row offices there too? I’m sure Marc Elias has a legion of lawyers on his team Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MT Treasurer on November 08, 2018, 03:38:55 PM Calling it now: MN-SEN 2008 redux.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: beesley on November 08, 2018, 03:39:51 PM Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 03:40:41 PM Calling it now: MN-SEN 2008 redux. Except in Florida, it will be Alligator People rather than Lizard. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 03:43:01 PM Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost? I don't think we've gotten any ballot updates since election night. I think it's close to certain Denham loses but would be less confident about Kim (and also Walters). I think their opponents are favored but there's a lot of uncertainty in those two races. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 03:43:17 PM Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost? Why do you say that? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 08, 2018, 03:44:31 PM Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost? I think so. It seems like Walters is the only vulnerable CA Republican who is more likely than not to win, but even she might barely lose when all of the votes are counted. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 08, 2018, 03:45:31 PM Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost? Why do you say that? Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 03:46:14 PM Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost? Why do you say that? Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough. For beating Denham they should be. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 08, 2018, 03:46:39 PM Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost? Why do you say that? Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 03:46:46 PM Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost? Why do you say that? Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough. I know that but the above poster seemed to imply that something changed in the last few hours. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 08, 2018, 03:49:35 PM I'm not sure if NYT is actively updating their forecast, but 229 seats for the Democrats seems way too conservative at this point. They currently have 225 secured, and NJ-03, CA-25, UT-04, NY-22, and CA-48 are quite likely to flip (NYT has all of the Democrats leading but none declared the victors). That's already 230, and that's not to mention the strong possibility that some combination of CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, and/or even GA-07 or TX-27 flip.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 03:50:28 PM Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost? Why do you say that? Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough. AP says Kim is ahead by almost 4,000. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 03:50:29 PM It will be 232-235 seats.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chief Justice Keef on November 08, 2018, 03:52:19 PM I'm not sure if NYT is actively updating their forecast, but 229 seats for the Democrats seems way too conservative at this point. They currently have 225 secured, and NJ-03, CA-25, UT-04, NY-22, and CA-48 are quite likely to flip (NYT has all of the Democrats leading but none declared the victors). That's already 230, and that's not to mention the strong possibility that some combination of CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, and/or even GA-07 or TX-27 flip. They stopped updating their forecast at 2 p.m. yesterday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 03:54:20 PM Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 08, 2018, 03:55:47 PM Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 08, 2018, 03:56:34 PM Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%. Eh the margin is going to come from there. It's going to come from Broward. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 03:58:40 PM Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%. This is in addition to Broward which potentially has 25k votes left to count plus the prospect of a 30k under vote issue (if it is actually a tabulation issue) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 03:59:09 PM I'm not sure if NYT is actively updating their forecast, but 229 seats for the Democrats seems way too conservative at this point. They currently have 225 secured, and NJ-03, CA-25, UT-04, NY-22, and CA-48 are quite likely to flip (NYT has all of the Democrats leading but none declared the victors). That's already 230, and that's not to mention the strong possibility that some combination of CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, and/or even GA-07 or TX-27 flip. They stopped updating their forecast at 2 p.m. yesterday. The best up to date vote count is probably this from Cook Political Report: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/edit#gid=0 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 04:04:20 PM I’m not too optimistic. Even though there were 25k more votes in the Gubernatorial race than the Senate race in Broward, it looks like Gillum did a whole point worse in broward than Nelson did. I don’t know why. Hopefully there’s not an error in favor of Nelson or anything that explains that. A point discrepancy between candidates is normal, no? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 08, 2018, 04:05:17 PM Wait so the 25K error is 100% Nelson voters?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BigSerg on November 08, 2018, 04:05:50 PM I think it was said that Nelson needs 60% in Palm Beach and 70% in Broward to have an opportunity Is someone serious thinking about a mistake in the counting? In theory, Republicans could try to bring this to the Supreme Court if they see it in danger, right? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 04:06:59 PM I think it was said that Nelson needs 60% in Palm Beach and 70% in Broward to have an opportunity Is someone serious thinking about a mistake in the counting? In theory, Republicans could try to bring this to the Supreme Court if they see it in danger, right? Bush v. Gore 2.0 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wesmoorenerd on November 08, 2018, 04:07:02 PM Latest PredictIt prices in too close to call House races:
California 10 (Harder-Denham) 84-24 or 59-41 California 25 (Hill-Knight) 97-3 California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 38-55 California 45 (Porter-Walters) 39-62 or 40-60 California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 98-1 Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 30-93 Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 80-21 New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 98-2 New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 98-2 New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 8-92 North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 2-99 Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 2-98 Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 70-30 The divergent odds in the two CA districts is because, for some reason, PI has two markets for those two races (one for the district and one for the incumbent). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 04:11:23 PM Wait so the 25K error is 100% Nelson voters? The part of the county with the undervote is the area in FL-24 (and exactly coterminous with FL-24). It's one of the most Democratic patches of Broward County and heavily black, routinely in the 80s or even 90s for the Democrats. Not 100% Nelson but probably close it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 04:11:46 PM Wait so the 25K error is 100% Nelson voters? No but the under vote in Broward was so extreme in comparison to the rest of the state that more people votes in cabinet races than for U.S. Senate. There is confusion on why that is since Senate was a marquee race. Nelson would benefit from these voters. Broward SOE was using new machines so there is thought that there could be some sort of error since the under vote in Broward was huge compared to the rest of the state. Nelson's lawyers don't believe it is due to ballot design. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dereich on November 08, 2018, 04:17:53 PM Wait so the 25K error is 100% Nelson voters? No but the under vote in Broward was so extreme in comparison to the rest of the state that more people votes in cabinet races than for U.S. Senate. There is confusion on why that is since Senate was a marquee race. Nelson would benefit from these voters. Broward SOE was using new machines so there is thought that there could be some sort of error since the under vote in Broward was huge compared to the rest of the state. Nelson's lawyers don't believe it is due to ballot design. Even if they did believe that it was due to ballot design, they wouldn't say it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 04:19:48 PM () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 04:21:39 PM Ok yeah, something strange definitely happened in Florida. Hopefully the DNC is sending every lawyer they have on speed dial down there.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 04:27:01 PM Also, within Broward County (posted by RI earlier): () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 08, 2018, 04:28:31 PM yeah, looking at the votes, its so concentrated and so odd that I doubt its a ballot problem. Looks like things will get real heated in FL.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 08, 2018, 04:31:08 PM Yeah republicans are gonna steal this seat i wish scott won outright.... it hurts so much more in a heartbreaker Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 04:31:41 PM Yeah republicans are gonna steal this seat Yeah I think so too. Scott will call for an injunction of some sort. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 04:32:58 PM Yeah republicans are gonna steal this seat Yeah I think so too. Scott will call for an injunction of some sort. On what grounds? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BigSerg on November 08, 2018, 04:33:19 PM Yeah republicans are gonna steal this seat Yeah I think so too. Scott will call for an injunction of some sort. The supreme court will give Scott the victory in a vote 5-4 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Orser67 on November 08, 2018, 04:33:49 PM This obviously isn't going to happen, but imagine how much better for Democrats/worse for Republicans this election will look if Democrats end up with a net gain of 40 seats in the House and win all of FL-Sen, AZ-Sen, and GA-Gov. Maybe my memory is failing me, but I don't remember a post-election period when so many important races were still uncalled two days after the election (though obviously this doesn't compare to the 2000 presidential election).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: kelestian on November 08, 2018, 04:34:10 PM Also, within Broward County (posted by RI earlier): () It is FL-24, where Frederica Wilson run unopposed Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 04:34:53 PM The time factor was an important part of the 2000 presidential recount controversy. There was a need to get it resolved quickly since Florida's electoral votes would be decisive. But that doesn't exist here, since there's plenty of precedent for a Senate recount to drag on long past the start of the new Congress.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 04:37:28 PM This is probably a good time to recall this (in)famous Senate recount controversy: https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Closest_election_in_Senate_history.htm.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BigSerg on November 08, 2018, 04:39:03 PM The time factor was an important part of the 2000 presidential recount controversy. There was a need to get it resolved quickly since Florida's electoral votes would be decisive. But that doesn't exist here, since there's plenty of precedent for a Senate recount to drag on long past the start of the new Congress. Scott could go to the supreme court alleging that the prolongation of the uncertainty could cause social division and that there is no evidence of a massive error in favor of Nelson Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 04:46:38 PM Scott could go to the supreme court alleging that the prolongation of the uncertainty could cause social division and that there is no evidence of a massive error in favor of Nelson That's not how any of it works at any level. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 04:47:05 PM A couple notes about the undervote:
Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SLA8 on November 08, 2018, 04:47:54 PM I'm following Steve Kornacki's twitter account for updates on this and have found it useful.
As far as I can tell, there is uncertainty around whether the undervote in Broward is due to a machine error or due to human error caused by a poor ballot design in Florida's 24th congressional district. My only question is whether this undervote is the "25K" we have been talking about or if it's a separate issue. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 04:48:38 PM I'm following Steve Kornacki's twitter account for updates on this and have found it useful. As far as I can tell, there is uncertainty around whether the remaining votes in Broward have been uncounted due to a machine error or due to human error caused by a poor ballot design in Florida's 24th congressional district. My only question is whether this undercount is the 25K we have been talking about or if it's a separate issue. It's the same thing, mostly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Stockdale for Veep on November 08, 2018, 04:49:10 PM Credit to the Buchanan voters for still being alive 18 years later. Wonder why they all decided to move to Broward?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 04:49:18 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. wait WHAT Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 04:50:24 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. wait WHAT There are 0 votes for Wilson because she wasn't on the ballot. She ran unopposed. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SLA8 on November 08, 2018, 04:53:20 PM Wilson wasn't on the ballot and thus the only race in that far left corner on the ballot was the Senate race. People might have missed it since it's awkwardly placed on the ballot, which accounts for the undervote. That's the theory some are running with, but we don't know yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 08, 2018, 04:53:51 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. wait WHAT There are 0 votes for Wilson because she wasn't on the ballot. She ran unopposed. Is that a Florida thing? Whenever there have been unopposed races when I've voted, the unopposed person was still on the ballot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 08, 2018, 04:55:29 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. wait WHAT There are 0 votes for Wilson because she wasn't on the ballot. She ran unopposed. Is that a Florida thing? Whenever there have been unopposed races when I've voted, the unopposed person was still on the ballot. Same. Half my ballot was people running unopposed but with a write in option underneath. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dereich on November 08, 2018, 04:56:00 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. wait WHAT There are 0 votes for Wilson because she wasn't on the ballot. She ran unopposed. Is that a Florida thing? Whenever there have been unopposed races when I've voted, the unopposed person was still on the ballot. I believe unopposed races here only appear on the ballot if there is a valid write-in candidate in the race. I could be wrong, but that's my recollection of the law. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SLA8 on November 08, 2018, 04:56:03 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. wait WHAT There are 0 votes for Wilson because she wasn't on the ballot. She ran unopposed. Is that a Florida thing? Whenever there have been unopposed races when I've voted, the unopposed person was still on the ballot. "As noted by @oiler, Rep. Alcee Hastings, whose district is based in Broward, also had no opponent, but his race *was* on the ballot. However, a candidate *did* qualify to run write-in against him, and FL requires the ballot list the race in these cases" Quoted from twitter -- but again this is a theory Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 05:12:54 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. wait WHAT There are 0 votes for Wilson because she wasn't on the ballot. She ran unopposed. Is that a Florida thing? Whenever there have been unopposed races when I've voted, the unopposed person was still on the ballot. "As noted by @oiler, Rep. Alcee Hastings, whose district is based in Broward, also had no opponent, but his race *was* on the ballot. However, a candidate *did* qualify to run write-in against him, and FL requires the ballot list the race in these cases" Quoted from twitter -- but again this is a theory Yes, but...10%? I feel like it’s more likely that the placement for the race was weird and thus weren’t read by some of the machines. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 05:14:09 PM Yeah, I'm going with poor machine calibration.
Regardless, the only way we're actually going to find out is with a hand recount, which Nelson is getting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 08, 2018, 05:14:52 PM Sounds like Kemp wasn't the only one to steal an election this year.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 08, 2018, 05:15:00 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. So do that mean it’s possible that this error is basically a wash in regards to the vote total for each candidate? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SLA8 on November 08, 2018, 05:15:09 PM Ok, so apparently the drop-off in votes between Gov race and Sen race isn't limited to one type of voting. Unless my reasoning is bad, I think that does weaken the possibility of people not seeing the Senate race on the ballot and does strengthen the likelihood of poor machine calibration explaining the undervote. I'm presuming that people mailing in their ballots would take their time and notice if they had not voted for the Senate race.
Again, take my info with a grain of salt -- I'm getting it from twitter. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 08, 2018, 05:16:51 PM Ugh-typical Florida.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:18:02 PM I broke the results down by precinct, and Nelson has 1784 fewer votes than Gillum in Broward's FL-24 while Scott has 489 fewer votes than DeSantis there. That's 1,295 net votes for Nelson. However, that's ignoring the likely legitimate undervote rate we see elsewhere in the county. Accounting for that lowers Nelson's maximum possible net due to a machine error in FL-24 to right about 1,200 votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 05:19:35 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. So do that mean it’s possible that this error is basically a wash in regards to the vote total for each candidate? Possible, although exit polls showed DeSantis doing better with black voters so quite possible Scott just got less votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SLA8 on November 08, 2018, 05:20:00 PM Ok but apart from those votes, do we know how many outstanding votes are to be counted in Broward -- or other counties?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 05:20:24 PM Ok, so apparently the drop-off in votes between Gov race and Sen race isn't limited to one type of voting. Unless my reasoning is bad, I think that does weaken the possibility of people not seeing the Senate race on the ballot and does strengthen the likelihood of poor machine calibration explaining the undervote. I'm presuming that people mailing in their ballots would take their time and notice if they had not voted for the Senate race. Again, take my info with a grain of salt -- I'm getting it from twitter. Which of course a hand recount would catch Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 05:21:24 PM Ok but apart from those votes, do we know how many outstanding votes are to be counted in Broward -- or other counties? Nobody really knows Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 05:24:01 PM A couple notes about the undervote: Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race. So do that mean it’s possible that this error is basically a wash in regards to the vote total for each candidate? Or it could be that ~10K voters split tickets Nelson/DeSantis, probably over Red Tide issues. Makes sense considering how DeSantis did on average better then Scott. 10K out of ~690,000-700,000 total votes gives about .15-.2%, roughly the gap between the two. So more likely a majority of the 20K total are Dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 08, 2018, 05:24:22 PM WTF is actually happening in Broward
https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 05:24:54 PM What makes no sense is the number of Nelson-DeSantis voters in Broward. There is no explanation for it Red Tide. Also, its only .2% of the total county, which is in line with Desantis's outpreformance of Scott statewide. Don't see why there wouldn't be 10K Nelson/DeSantis voters with the present information. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wesmoorenerd on November 08, 2018, 05:26:24 PM WTF is actually happening in Broward https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024 God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 05:30:15 PM WTF is actually happening in Broward https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024 God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner? My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state. I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with. Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 05:31:39 PM WTF is actually happening in Broward https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024 God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner? My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state. I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with. Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others. Nah, this is def a Florida thing. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Stockdale for Veep on November 08, 2018, 05:32:08 PM ♫ In the Year 2000 ♫
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cg41386 on November 08, 2018, 05:33:34 PM WTF is actually happening in Broward https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024 God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner? My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state. I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with. Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others. Not to get too off topic, but virtually every bizarre news story comes from Florida. There is something in the water down there, and I don’t mean the red tide. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 05:34:55 PM Not to get too off topic, but virtually every bizarre news story comes from Florida. There is something in the water down there, and I don’t mean the red tide. It's a combination of meth and bath salts. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 05:36:06 PM WTF is actually happening in Broward https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024 God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner? My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state. I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with. Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others. Not to get too off topic, but virtually every bizarre news story comes from Florida. There is something in the water down there, and I don’t mean the red tide. I agree a lot of bizarre things have happened with regard to Florida elections. I'm just saying that it's also the state with the most close elections so we have it under a microscope. I don't think Florida has a monopoly on incompetence as it pertains to election record-keeping. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 08, 2018, 05:37:48 PM This whole situation is just peak Florida. At least control of the Senate isn't being decided by this.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:38:52 PM In other news, we should get an AZ dump in a couple hours.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 08, 2018, 05:46:23 PM So if the Broward 30,000 thing is real, Nelson proabably wins. If not, Scott probably wins.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 05:50:12 PM Here's a link to one of the ballots that are being scrutinized because of the placement of the senate race. Given how concentrated the problem seems to be, it seems more probable that it's a machine issue than a design issue. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 05:51:51 PM Here's a link to one of the ballots that are being scrutinized because of the placement of the senate race. Ag commish is right next to Senate and got a lot more votes. No way that's just due to ballot design. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:52:59 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 05:54:11 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 05:54:14 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/1060571314749128704/photo/1 Yes, we do. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 05:54:44 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/1060571314749128704/photo/1 Yes, we do. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:55:01 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/1060571314749128704/photo/1 Yes, we do. No, that has Debbie Wasserman Schultz on the ballot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 08, 2018, 05:55:03 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. There's almost no way that the ballot design could be so uniquely terrible to explain such a vast difference not seen in any other county/district combo. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 05:55:32 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. There's almost no way that the ballot design could be so uniquely terrible to explain such a vast difference not seen in any other county/district combo. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 05:55:50 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. There's almost no way that the ballot design could be so uniquely terrible to explain such a vast difference not seen in any other county/district combo. ...unless the design also caused an offset that ed with the machines. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 05:56:08 PM ^Additionally, the Senate race is located in the same position as that image. Whether DWS or another race is in the congressional spot doesn't change the layout itself.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:56:23 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme. In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 05:56:50 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme. In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23. ...and under 1% in every other county in Florida. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 05:57:37 PM I mean, theres not much reason to debate it. Nelson is getting a hand recount so we'll find out one way or the other.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 05:57:49 PM This is where we are right now in the senate expectations game. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 08, 2018, 05:57:53 PM Here's a link to one of the ballots that are being scrutinized because of the placement of the senate race. That doesnt look that egregious to be honest. There are multiple options on the left panel to vote for an I would assume most people who take the time to vote also take the time to read the whole ballot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:58:30 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme. In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23. ...and under 1% in every other county in Florida. If you want to go that route, then correcting the total Broward error likely benefits Scott, not Nelson. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 05:58:33 PM Here's a link to one of the ballots that are being scrutinized because of the placement of the senate race. That doesnt look that egregious to be honest. There are multiple options on the left panel to vote for an I would assume most people who take the time to vote also take the time to read the whole ballot. Yes, again, I think there is a machine issue here. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 05:58:55 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme. In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23. ...and under 1% in every other county in Florida. If you want to go that route, then correcting the total Broward error likely benefits Scott, not Nelson. What makes you say that? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 08, 2018, 06:01:44 PM This is where we are right now in the senate expectations game. Sounds pretty much par for the course for a 1) a very tight race and 2) a race initially thought to be 'over' that then got thrown into recount hell. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 08, 2018, 06:03:34 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme. In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23. ...and under 1% in every other county in Florida. If you want to go that route, then correcting the total Broward error likely benefits Scott, not Nelson. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 06:03:55 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme. In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23. ...and under 1% in every other county in Florida. If you want to go that route, then correcting the total Broward error likely benefits Scott, not Nelson. What makes you say that? Scott had more undervotes countywide than Nelson, especially in FL-22 and FL-23. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 06:04:52 PM I keep hearing the name "Debbie Wasserman-Schultz" coming up in this discussion, so I blame her for all of this. :P
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 06:05:26 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme. In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23. ...and under 1% in every other county in Florida. If you want to go that route, then correcting the total Broward error likely benefits Scott, not Nelson. What makes you say that? Scott had more undervotes countywide than Nelson, especially in FL-22 and FL-23. wait, we know the Governor vote composition of the undervotes? Or did you just mean Scott trailed DeSantis by more? Because DeSantis is just outrunning Scott everywhere. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 08, 2018, 06:06:12 PM Anyone who has watched Arizona before knows that McSally is basically done for once the rest comes in.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 08, 2018, 06:08:21 PM FL is going to give me a stroke.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 06:09:41 PM FL is going to give me a stroke. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 06:12:44 PM Number to remember on Florida:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 08, 2018, 06:13:03 PM The time factor was an important part of the 2000 presidential recount controversy. There was a need to get it resolved quickly since Florida's electoral votes would be decisive. But that doesn't exist here, since there's plenty of precedent for a Senate recount to drag on long past the start of the new Congress. Al Franken was not seated until June 2009. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 08, 2018, 06:14:48 PM I love FL. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 08, 2018, 06:15:31 PM Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area. All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme. In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23. ...and under 1% in every other county in Florida. If you want to go that route, then correcting the total Broward error likely benefits Scott, not Nelson. What makes you say that? Scott had more undervotes countywide than Nelson, especially in FL-22 and FL-23. Neither has undervotes. Undervotes mean the race doesnt have a vote recorded. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 06:16:01 PM Anyone who has watched Arizona before knows that McSally is basically done for once the rest comes in. Well, Maricopa County is 60% of the voting population and is more Republican leaning than the rest of the state. Pima County is 17% of the voting population. If Sinema is still head ahead in Maricopa County and after counting is done, it's unlikely that she would lose. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 06:16:39 PM Oh cool anecdote with no evidence. Let's run with it
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 08, 2018, 06:18:04 PM Oh cool anecdote with no evidence. Let's run with it I wouldn't consider Marc Caputo anecdotal....but sure whatever. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 06:20:57 PM Oh cool anecdote with no evidence. Let's run with it I wouldn't consider Marc Caputo anecdotal....but sure whatever. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 08, 2018, 06:21:47 PM WTF is actually happening in Broward https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024 Broward county Dems might cost us 2018, just like Palm Beach Dems cost us 2000. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SPQR on November 08, 2018, 06:23:46 PM WTF is actually happening in Broward https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024 God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner? My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state. I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with. Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others. That's true in general, I'm afraid. I've been assisting the counting of votes since 2013 as a list representative in Italy, and I've seen terrible things and had great discussions with poll workers ashamingly unaware of any electoral rule. Ever since then I am much more wary when voting, and always hope that my vote gets counted right. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 08, 2018, 06:25:54 PM Apparently some of the Arizona #’s are trickling in and it’s good for Sinema
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 06:27:37 PM This is where we are right now in the senate expectations game. Rick Scott thinks that an accurate count is stealing the election. If nothing else, he certainly fits right in with Florida politics. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 06:31:53 PM Arizona margin has been cut from 27K to 17K The margin was 16K yesterday... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: BigSerg on November 08, 2018, 06:32:32 PM Serious question and I want serious answers. How likely is it that this will reach the supreme court?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 06:32:40 PM Arizona margin has been cut from 27K to 17K The margin was 16K yesterday... Sh*t, made a mistake, my bad. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 06:33:35 PM 2,653 votes were added (I believe from Yuma) and Sinema picked up 295 votes. This is a county McSally is leading 53%-44%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 06:34:05 PM 2,653 votes were added (I believe from Yuma) and Sinema picked up 295 votes. This is a county McSally is leading 53%-44%. Thats encouraging. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 06:34:07 PM I don't think the big AZ votes have started coming in yet. A few trickled in earlier. Unless someone has a link
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 06:36:02 PM I don't think the big AZ votes have started coming in yet. A few trickled in earlier. Unless someone has a link Not yet. Expecting 100K votes to drop from Maricopa county in 25 minutes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 06:44:10 PM Florida is an absolute mess, as always.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 06:45:13 PM Florida is an absolute mess, as always. Applies to more than just its politics/elections infrastructure Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 08, 2018, 06:49:35 PM Maricopa is dropping at 5 right?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 06:53:30 PM Maricopa is dropping at 5 right? Between 5/5:30 apparently, which is in 7-37 minutes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 06:55:16 PM Maricopa is dropping at 5 right? All of it, or just some? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 06:56:09 PM Maricopa is dropping at 5 right? All of it, or just some? About 100,000 votes. So about a fifth of it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 06:56:24 PM Maricopa is dropping at 5 right? All of it, or just some? I heard rumors of under 100K, which is about 1/5 of the expected ballots uncounted. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 08, 2018, 06:57:24 PM Maricopa is dropping at 5 right? Between 5/5:30 apparently, which is in 7-37 minutes. I assume they will post it first on their website: https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionresults/completeresults.aspx#tabs=1 (https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionresults/completeresults.aspx#tabs=1) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 06:59:39 PM McSally gained 633 votes from Mohave and Yavapai. She received 60.8% of the votes added. Overall she has received 66.1% of the votes from both counties, so the newly added count is slightly behind what you would expect for her. Another sign that Sinema could potentially do better with the votes left to count than she did on election day.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 07:01:52 PM Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 08, 2018, 07:02:07 PM Did Sinema just net like 20K votes in Maricopa alone?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 08, 2018, 07:02:21 PM Boom!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 07:02:27 PM What in the world?
Sinema, now in the lead. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 07:02:58 PM SINEMA!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 07:03:00 PM Sinema is now up by 2,000 votes after Maricopa drop.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 08, 2018, 07:03:02 PM YES!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wesmoorenerd on November 08, 2018, 07:03:28 PM SHE DID IT
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 07:03:36 PM Serious question and I want serious answers. How likely is it that this will reach the supreme court? It's impossible to tell at this point. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 08, 2018, 07:04:11 PM Can I get a link to the results you're looking at? NYT has McSally up by 17,000 with 7 precincts yet to report.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 07:04:21 PM Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes. Is that all of it or is there more? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 07:04:35 PM Sinema gained 19,487 votes out of 124,149 just posted.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 07:04:35 PM Not yet, but we've got about about 300,000+ more ballots to go Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 07:04:50 PM Can I get a link to the results you're looking at? NYT has McSally up by 17,000 with 7 precincts yet to report. https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 07:04:59 PM Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes. Is that all of it or is there more? ~4 more of those to come next week. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 07:05:00 PM Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes. Is that all of it or is there more? There should be plenty more. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 07:05:03 PM Can I get a link to the results you're looking at? NYT has McSally up by 17,000 with 7 precincts yet to report. https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 07:06:40 PM Well, the only question is if the votes counted were a random sample of the total votes out. If so, then Sinema will win. If not, then who knows.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 08, 2018, 07:06:55 PM Are there still votes in Pima left to be counted?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 07:06:58 PM Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes. Is that all of it or is there more? ~4 more of those to come next week. I mean, Maricopa, specifically. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 07:07:08 PM Okay, if Dems win AZ, I'm calling it a wave regardless of FL.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 07:07:14 PM Are there still votes in Pima left to be counted? I believe there is still like 88,000 votes from Pima. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 08, 2018, 07:07:16 PM I want to know where in Maricopa the ballots have/will come from. Though I very much doubt it'll swing GOP.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 07:07:23 PM Rip McSally
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 07:07:25 PM Looks like Sinema will take it!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 07:08:21 PM Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes. Is that all of it or is there more? ~4 more of those to come next week. I mean, Maricopa, specifically. There are still about 350K ballots left to count in Maricopa. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 07:09:07 PM I want to know where in Maricopa the ballots have/will come from. Though I very much doubt it'll swing GOP. We don't know exactly where they are from, but they are mostly late arriving early ballots, which tend to favor Sinema. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 07:09:11 PM Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes. Is that all of it or is there more? ~4 more of those to come next week. I mean, Maricopa, specifically. If this really was a 100K drop, then it was 100K of Just under 500K. So 4 more to come. But it looks like it may have been bigger then 100K. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 08, 2018, 07:09:25 PM Rubio is starting to get whiney on Twitter. Stop please, this damn race must be declared. I'm tired of hearing that Nelson has this Sock or bot? Hmmmmmm..... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 08, 2018, 07:10:23 PM Honestly, McSally set her self up for failure when she failed to get a comfortable margin on Election Day.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 07:10:33 PM Sinema won ~57% of that ~125K dump.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 07:10:55 PM If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 07:11:00 PM Maricopa singlehandedly wiped out McSally's lead statewide. Sinema gained 19.5K net votes. Is that all of it or is there more? ~4 more of those to come next week. I mean, Maricopa, specifically. If this really was a 100K drop, then it was 100K of Just under 500K. So 4 more to come. But it looks like it may have been bigger then 100K. I think it was around 150K Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 07:12:10 PM Sinema won ~57% of that ~125K dump. I honestly don't see McSally recovering from that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 08, 2018, 07:12:32 PM Just relax. If Mrs Sinema wins this, Nelson and Espy, too, it will be anybodies guess what's happening next. Maybe Donald has no love for McConnell anymore, and then tries to fire Mike Pence?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 07:13:18 PM looks like Maricopa still has another ~350K to drop
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060684982547472384 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 08, 2018, 07:14:11 PM If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020. Rep. Ruben Gallego has been rumored to be the favored candidate among Democrats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 07:14:55 PM Sinema's lead is a little too close for comfort right now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 07:15:25 PM If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020. Replace OH/IA with GA/AZ/TX. So much for the Sunbelt Strategy being a failure solely because Ossoff lost, LOL. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 07:16:12 PM If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020. Replace OH/IA with GA/AZ/TX. So much for the Sunbelt Strategy being a failure solely because Ossoff lost, LOL. Not completely ready to write off IA... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 07:16:13 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 07:16:30 PM If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020. Rep. Ruben Gallego has been rumored to be the favored candidate among Democrats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 08, 2018, 07:16:47 PM Nooooo
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: User157088589849 on November 08, 2018, 07:17:44 PM Florida is now 15k deficit.
Long way to go In Arizona. Mcsally is a terrible candidate but vast majority of republicans in the senate are just there for lobbyists to vote. They bring nothing to the table just vote. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 07:18:43 PM Sinema's lead is a little too close for comfort right now. Agree, But there should be 3/4 more dumps like that coming in the next week. If they are all like that, then this is GG. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 07:18:55 PM Just relax. If Mrs Sinema wins this, Nelson and Espy, too, it will be anybodies guess what's happening next. Maybe Donald has no love for McConnell anymore, and then tries to fire Mike Pence? Espy isn't winning, lol. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 08, 2018, 07:19:40 PM If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020. Rep. Ruben Gallego has been rumored to be the favored candidate among Democrats. Definitely. If Trump's people felt like campaigning for McSally would have only hurt her and decided to not have a rally, that doesn't bode well for him in 2020 (beyond what Sinema possibly winning already indicates). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 07:20:08 PM See edits above. Remember that AZ (like TX) is one of those states where it is generally tougher for Dems in midterms because the Dem base skews young and non-white. So other things equal it should be easier to win AZ in a Presidential race than in a midterm Senate race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 07:20:20 PM Rick Scott set to give a press conference at 8pm. I'm alittle worried he's gonna start throwing around voter fraud accusations.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 07:21:31 PM Rick Scott set to give a press conference at 8pm. I'm alittle worried he's gonna start throwing around voter fraud accusations. He's a Rethug. Of course he is. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 07:21:43 PM So assuming Sinema holds on, the Senate will end up R+1 or R+2 depending on Florida (which I refuse to make any predictions on at this point). I expect that most Democrats would have taken that along with D+~35 in the House if it was offered to them a week ago!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: InheritTheWind on November 08, 2018, 07:23:30 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 07:25:13 PM Gillums still done I really dont hear about any more votes for him but Nelson just might make it and Florida dems incompotence get the concession prize of the incredibly important AG commissioner.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 07:25:41 PM Broward supposedly finished their VBM and only has a few thousand (~4-6K) early votes left.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 07:25:58 PM Dang, that's a huge discrepancy between Gillum and Nelson. A couple months ago, we thought that Gillum would have been Nelson's political savior.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 08, 2018, 07:26:10 PM If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020. Rep. Ruben Gallego has been rumored to be the favored candidate among Democrats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 07:26:31 PM Broward supposedly finished their VBM and only has a few thousand (~4-6K) early votes left. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: windjammer on November 08, 2018, 07:27:23 PM Broward supposedly finished their VBM and only has a few thousand (~4-6K) early votes left. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 07:28:03 PM So assuming Sinema holds on, the Senate will end up R+1 or R+2 depending on Florida (which I refuse to make any predictions on at this point). I expect that most Democrats would have taken that along with D+~35 in the House if it was offered to them a week ago! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 08, 2018, 07:28:37 PM There's a hand recount triggered with that small a margin. I expect Nelson will make this thing very close.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 08, 2018, 07:30:12 PM Dang, that's a huge discrepancy between Gillum and Nelson. A couple months ago, we thought that Gillum would have been Nelson's political savior. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 07:30:16 PM Are the other batches coming tonight or later?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 07:30:23 PM Dang, that's a huge discrepancy between Gillum and Nelson. A couple months ago, we thought that Gillum would have been Nelson's political savior. Even if Gillum loses and Nelson wins, Gillum increasing African American turnout could well have pushed Nelson over the finish line. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 07:31:09 PM Dang, that's a huge discrepancy between Gillum and Nelson. A couple months ago, we thought that Gillum would have been Nelson's political savior. Even if Gillum loses and Nelson wins, Gillum increasing African American turnout could well have pushed Nelson over the finish line. yeah its clear that they had a combo which should have worked and it did in areas like Duval which is just weird to think of. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 07:31:48 PM I would very much like Bill Nelson to survive. But I can live with him gone if Sinema makes it.
A R+2 senate was not the best result but it certainly wasnt the worst either. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 07:33:27 PM Sinema apparently still up after a dump from Pinal County (heavily R)
916,380 Sinema to 914,369 McSally Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 07:33:43 PM Here is a thought, AZ State Senate and AZ state house last night were both two seats short of Dem takeovers. Where does that stand?
Simmilarly most other AZ statewide races are tightening, the SOS and Edu superintendent are ones I have seen on twitter. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 07:33:46 PM Although, if you had asked me which of the 4 democrat senators lost, I'd have said Tester instead of Nelson.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 08, 2018, 07:34:28 PM Just relax. If Mrs Sinema wins this, Nelson and Espy, too, it will be anybodies guess what's happening next. Maybe Donald has no love for McConnell anymore, and then tries to fire Mike Pence? Espy isn't winning, lol. About Florida: Mr Rubio is whining about some ballots which were "found". He does not give any figures, only alludes that this happened before on a "smaller scale of only 9000 votes". Of course Mr Espy will lose with a probability of 99.5 %. Yet there some Republicans which critizied the MS Governor for nominating her. ;-) After Roy Moore, I can easily imagine that the GOP nominated another "trojan horse". ;-) Just making fun of "high-quality" GOP candidates. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 07:34:33 PM Here is a thought, AZ State Senate and AZ state house last night were both two seats short of Dem takeovers. Where does that stand? Where there any close seats? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 07:34:53 PM Here is a thought, AZ State Senate and AZ state house last night were both two seats short of Dem takeovers. Where does that stand? Oh wow... I didn’t know that Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 07:35:28 PM Although, if you had asked me which of the 4 democrat senators lost, I'd have said Tester instead of Nelson. Yeah I was really shocked about Nelson losing and my fundamentals were way off there. I just didn't believe an incumbent in a swing state would lose this year. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 07:35:49 PM So assuming Sinema holds on, the Senate will end up R+1 or R+2 depending on Florida (which I refuse to make any predictions on at this point). I expect that most Democrats would have taken that along with D+~35 in the House if it was offered to them a week ago! I’m getting a what could have been feeling. Florida is going to sting for a while. And the realization that literally nothing Trump does is going to change the mind of the rural cult following is depressing and honestly makes me think he can win in 2020 and that’s sobering enough to overshadow the good things from this midterm Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 07:37:38 PM Arizona SoS might be closer
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 08, 2018, 07:37:48 PM So assuming Sinema holds on, the Senate will end up R+1 or R+2 depending on Florida (which I refuse to make any predictions on at this point). I expect that most Democrats would have taken that along with D+~35 in the House if it was offered to them a week ago! I’m getting a what could have been feeling. Florida is going to sting for a while. And the realization that literally nothing Trump does is going to change the mind of the rural cult following is depressing and honestly makes me think he can win in 2020 and that’s sobering enough to overshadow the good things from this midterm lol, your act is getting old. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 08, 2018, 07:38:02 PM Here is a thought, AZ State Senate and AZ state house last night were both two seats short of Dem takeovers. Where does that stand? Where there any close seats? No. AZ 6 and AZ 8 are the closest and both were won by double digits. Those are congressional. And he was asking about the state legislature. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 07:38:36 PM Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 07:38:41 PM Here is a thought, AZ State Senate and AZ state house last night were both two seats short of Dem takeovers. Where does that stand? Where there any close seats? No. AZ 6 and AZ 8 are the closest and both were won by double digits. Those are congressional. And he was asking about the state legislature. Yep, deleted my post because I cant read. :/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 07:38:53 PM McSally underperforming in a big way in the Pinal ballots that just dumped.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 07:39:12 PM Here is a thought, AZ State Senate and AZ state house last night were both two seats short of Dem takeovers. Where does that stand? Where there any close seats? Here is a basic breakdown, yesterday I read if dems hold their leads, its 31 -29 R House. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/06/arizona-legislature-election-results-democrats-seek-end-gop-control/1809261002/ Yesterday's though ^ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 07:39:34 PM Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race Not to be rude, but you keep coming in here and telling us how hopeless AZ and Fl are. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 07:41:27 PM Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race Not to be rude, but you keep coming in here and telling us how hopeless AZ and Fl are. By all means, be rude with this specific poster. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: User157088589849 on November 08, 2018, 07:41:42 PM https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rubio-charges-dem-controlled-florida-counties-trying-to-change-vote-totals-so-gillum-defeats-desantis
Little marco is having a hissy fit. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 07:42:12 PM Here is a thought, AZ State Senate and AZ state house last night were both two seats short of Dem takeovers. Where does that stand? Where there any close seats? Here is a basic breakdown, yesterday I read if dems hold their leads, its 31 -29 R House. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/06/arizona-legislature-election-results-democrats-seek-end-gop-control/1809261002/ Yesterday's though ^ BUt tHE mIDweSt is wHeRe its at. before everyone says muh gerrymanders Texas was gerrymandered to hell and back and they destroyed that state house gerrymander and almost broke the congressional one with some severe damage to it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 07:42:38 PM McSally underperforming in a big way in the Pinal ballots that just dumped. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 07:42:40 PM Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race Not to be rude, but you keep coming in here and telling us how hopeless AZ and Fl are. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 07:42:41 PM McSally underperforming in a big way in the Pinal ballots that just dumped. Does anyone else think Pinal and Pima sound too alike? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 07:43:23 PM McSally underperforming in a big way in the Pinal ballots that just dumped. Does anyone else think Pinal and Pima sound too alike? Me. I thought Pinal was a typo the first time I saw it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 08, 2018, 07:43:34 PM If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020. Rep. Ruben Gallego has been rumored to be the favored candidate among Democrats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 08, 2018, 07:45:07 PM Come on Scott
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 07:45:09 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 08, 2018, 07:47:06 PM Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race Not to be rude, but you keep coming in here and telling us how hopeless AZ and Fl are. By all means, be rude with this specific poster. Seriously. You may or may not be right Panda guinea pig, but your posts about Florida practically reek of dog sweat. Towel yourself off and chill. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 07:48:42 PM Didn’t the Rs also have +10 ID advantage in the early ballots across the board? So his bucket B shouldn’t be McSally-favorable. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 07:49:22 PM Didn’t the Rs also have +10 ID advantage in the early ballots across the board? So his bucket B shouldn’t be McSally-favorable. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 07:49:35 PM Didn’t the Rs also have +10 ID advantage in the early ballots across the board? So his bucket B shouldn’t be McSally-favorable. Well, they’ll be more favorable than a 16 point blowout (presumably) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 07:49:51 PM Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race Not to be rude, but you keep coming in here and telling us how hopeless AZ and Fl are. By all means, be rude with this specific poster. Seriously. You may or may not be right Panda guinea pig, but your posts about Florida practically reek of dog sweat. Towel yourself off and chill. He thinks that repeating a lie (like with Sherrod Brown being a wife-beater) will make it true. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 07:50:32 PM So assuming Sinema holds on, the Senate will end up R+1 or R+2 depending on Florida (which I refuse to make any predictions on at this point). I expect that most Democrats would have taken that along with D+~35 in the House if it was offered to them a week ago! I’m getting a what could have been feeling. Florida is going to sting for a while. And the realization that literally nothing Trump does is going to change the mind of the rural cult following is depressing and honestly makes me think he can win in 2020 and that’s sobering enough to overshadow the good things from this midterm lol, your act is getting old. It’s not an “act”. I’m thrilled at the house results but it’s worth considering that for the past two years I’ve told myself that a lot of people supported trump to try something new but after seeing the way he really is, his support would significantly decrease - to see that his supporters are more emboldened is scary to me. I would’ve bet the house on him being a one term President, now I’m not sure. In a normal political environment where voters held the President responsible - Missouri, Indiana and Florida would have been Democratic wins. It’s sobering to see that not be the case. I’d gladly take 53-47 for a Senate result, Florida will sting though because that one extra seat probably puts the Senate out of reach for 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: alomas on November 08, 2018, 07:55:02 PM These are pro-Sinema ballots, but this race is on a knife's edge which is very good news for Democrats anyway. A true toss-up.
What is the final result in the House? How many seats Dem got in the end? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: User157088589849 on November 08, 2018, 07:55:28 PM Long way to go in Arizona everyone calm down. Race is super close.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 08, 2018, 07:55:31 PM So assuming Sinema holds on, the Senate will end up R+1 or R+2 depending on Florida (which I refuse to make any predictions on at this point). I expect that most Democrats would have taken that along with D+~35 in the House if it was offered to them a week ago! I’m getting a what could have been feeling. Florida is going to sting for a while. And the realization that literally nothing Trump does is going to change the mind of the rural cult following is depressing and honestly makes me think he can win in 2020 and that’s sobering enough to overshadow the good things from this midterm lol, your act is getting old. It’s not an “act”. I’m thrilled at the house results but it’s worth considering that for the past two years I’ve told myself that a lot of people supported trump to try something new but after seeing the way he really is, his support would significantly decrease - to see that his supporters are more emboldened is scary to me. I would’ve bet the house on him being a one term President, now I’m not sure. In a normal political environment where voters held the President responsible - Missouri, Indiana and Florida would have been Democratic wins. It’s sobering to see that not be the case. I’d gladly take 53-47 for a Senate result, Florida will sting though because that one extra seat probably puts the Senate out of reach for 2020. Dude, it is an act (a tiresome act as well). Tuesday, you considered the election a disaster for Democrats. Now that things are looking pretty good for them, you are now trying to save face by shifting the narrative to 2020. Hell, your pessimism doesn't even make sense. Republicans won in states that Trump carried in 2016, but lost ground in the states that put him over (WI, PA, and MI). If anything, the election showed that there is a path to 270 in 2020 if Democrats play they cards right. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 07:57:27 PM These are pro-Sinema ballots, but this race is on a knife's edge which is very good news for Democrats anyway. A true toss-up. What is the final result in the House? How many seats Dem got in the end? The final tally isn't determined yet, and may not be for some time due to California's slow counting of mail ballots. 538 is currently estimating D+37, or a split of 232-203. They're also keeping a running status of the uncalled races at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-16-races-still-too-close-to-call/. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 07:57:40 PM Sinema nets 7k votes from Pima
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 07:57:52 PM Sinema nets 7k votes from Pima HOT DAMN Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Baki on November 08, 2018, 07:57:55 PM Wherever the votes that have just come in are from, they put Sinema in a 9000 vote lead.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 07:58:10 PM Pima Country just dropped some ballots!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 07:58:17 PM Sinema nets 7k votes from Pima Whoa Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 07:58:56 PM I answered my Question for the AZ state senate the breakdown is 17-13 Republican right now, but 5 Reps are in close races. One is 51.5-48.5, another is 50.5 -49.5.
The state house uses MMD, so that is harder to calc. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 07:59:36 PM Pima Country just dropped some ballots! Are there more or that's all from them? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: User157088589849 on November 08, 2018, 07:59:38 PM LONG WAY TO GO.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 08, 2018, 07:59:54 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 07:59:57 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on November 08, 2018, 08:01:23 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.
CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 CA-39: Too many numbers, too many counties. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 08:03:02 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Yup, California is gonna be a Democratic sweep. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 08:03:20 PM Pima Country just dropped some ballots! Are there more or that's all from them? There should still be like ~80K Pima ballots left to count. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 08:03:32 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers Congrats Rep-elect Rouda! Congrats Timmy! Goodbye Rohrabacher (R-Moscow)! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 08:06:11 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 08:06:35 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers He just said he's working on it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 08:08:22 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers Porter won 61% of this batch! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 08, 2018, 08:08:30 PM The fact that Sinema is in the lead and the Green Party candidate is getting over 2% shows that AZ is going to be competitive in 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 08:08:33 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers He just said he's working on it. Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 08:13:20 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers He just said he's working on it. Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 08:14:15 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers He just said he's working on it. Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39. Yes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 08:15:41 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers He just said he's working on it. Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39. Yes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Baki on November 08, 2018, 08:17:33 PM Sinema's lead now up to 9600.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: User157088589849 on November 08, 2018, 08:17:55 PM Apache county in pushing lead to 9610
Navajo, Cochise and coconino to come. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 08:17:59 PM Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers He just said he's working on it. Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39. The better comparison is AZ to CA, not CA to AZ. CA late ballots are WAY MORE dem then day of CA ballots and AZ late ballots. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 08:19:32 PM Sinema lead now at 9,600.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 08:19:34 PM Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 08, 2018, 08:19:53 PM I keep hearing the next Maricopa batch should favor McSally is this true? Did Dems do bad there on election day?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 08:19:59 PM Comparing numbers to the CA SOS website, here's where CA-39 stands now: Kim (R): 78,667 50.6% (+466 from new OC votes) Cisneros (D): 76,793 49.4% (+2,463 from new OC votes) Kim's margin shrinks from +2.6 to +1.2 Think thats more LA dependent not OC, where Cisneros cleaned up on Tuesday. The race was Dem LA vs R OC. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 08:22:38 PM I keep hearing the next Maricopa batch should favor McSally is this true? Did Dems do bad there on election day? Favor as in she won't get creamed by 15 points like she did in today's batch. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 08:24:09 PM I keep hearing the next Maricopa batch should favor McSally is this true? Did Dems do bad there on election day? Favor as in she won't get creamed by 15 points like she did in today's batch. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 08:24:19 PM wait hang on. Was 39 Kim +3 or Cisneros +1997?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 08, 2018, 08:24:51 PM It's amazing that Dems have done better in NV/AZ/TX than MO/IN/ND. I'm not surprised, but it's fun to see real demographic destiny come true.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jeppe on November 08, 2018, 08:28:30 PM No idea what the other guy is smoking, but updated CA-39 results
Kim - 78,677 (51.27%) +466 Cisneros - 74,893 (48.74%) +463 Kim increased her lead by 3 votes with tonight’s batch. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 08, 2018, 08:29:29 PM Scott is currently giving a press conference about voting discrepancies in Palm Beach and Broward... I’ve only seen a couple minutes, but he said that Nelson is trying to “steal the election from the people of Florida” and made sure to mention that he is utilizing “Hillary Clinton’s lawyers.” Despicable!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 08, 2018, 08:29:35 PM It's amazing that Dems have done better in NV/AZ/TX than MO/IN/ND. I'm not surprised, but it's fun to see real demographic destiny come true. Yeah, although FL definitely didn't vote to the left of Wisconsin, like everyone was saying it would. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on November 08, 2018, 08:29:44 PM No idea what the other guy is smoking, but updated CA-39 results Kim - 78,677 (51.27%) Cisneros - 74,893 (48.74%) Kim increased her lead by 3 votes with tonight’s batch. Sorry, too many numbers between this tri-county district Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 08:30:07 PM No idea what the other guy is smoking, but updated CA-39 results Kim - 78,677 (51.27%) +466 Cisneros - 74,893 (48.74%) +463 Kim increased her lead by 3 votes with tonight’s batch. Yeah, uh, I think Interlocutor found an extra 2K for Cisneros somewhere. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 08:30:38 PM Scott is currently giving a press conference about voting discrepancies in Palm Beach and Broward... I’ve only seen a couple minutes, but he said that Nelson is trying to “steal the election from the people of Florida” and made sure to mention that he is utilizing “Hillary Clinton’s lawyers.” Despicable! Scott doesn’t sound like a winning candidate right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 08:30:45 PM If Sinema receives similar margins from the rest of Pima county's uncounted ballots, she would net another ~21,600 votes from that county alone.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 08:31:43 PM No idea what the other guy is smoking, but updated CA-39 results Kim - 78,677 (51.27%) +466 Cisneros - 74,893 (48.74%) +463 Kim increased her lead by 3 votes with tonight’s batch. Yeah, uh, I think Interlocutor found an extra 2K for Cisneros somewhere. Send him to Florida. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Baki on November 08, 2018, 08:31:48 PM Basically everything is down to the rest of Maricopa and what it brings.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 08:33:00 PM Anita Malik and Hiral Tipernini might get within single digits when all is said and done.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ronnie on November 08, 2018, 08:34:39 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 08:35:40 PM Rick Scott just spoke from the steps of the Governor's mansion, accusing liberal activists and Hillary Clinton's lawyers of trying to steal the election from him. Appeared to be covered in sweat.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 08:36:17 PM No idea what the other guy is smoking, but updated CA-39 results Kim - 78,677 (51.27%) +466 Cisneros - 74,893 (48.74%) +463 Kim increased her lead by 3 votes with tonight’s batch. Yeah, uh, I think Interlocutor found an extra 2K for Cisneros somewhere. I noted that here: Orange County, CA just updated their numbers. CA-45: Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2 CA-48: Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4 Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers He just said he's working on it. Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39. It is possible for those 2K to exist, they just he to have come from the LA/San Berndardino portion of the seat Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 08, 2018, 08:37:19 PM How many votes are there left in Broward?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 08:37:25 PM Apparently 61,000 more votes left from Sinema friendly Pima county.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 08:37:50 PM How many votes are there left in Broward? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 08:38:10 PM Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim. Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it. Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 08:39:32 PM Rick Scott just spoke from the steps of the Governor's mansion, accusing liberal activists and Hillary Clinton's lawyers of trying to steal the election from him. Appeared to be covered in sweat. Sounds like somebody has found some horcruxes Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 08:40:44 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: TheSaint250 on November 08, 2018, 08:41:38 PM According to Broward's website (https://enr.electionsfl.org/BRO/Summary/1985/), they have finished counting VBM, but Florida Election Watch (https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus) hasn't confirmed.
According to Broward's website, 712,840 ballots were cast, and only 682,073 are in for Senate. Honestly, I don't know if either of these things means anything because it wouldn't surprise me if Broward couldn't even manage its own website. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 08, 2018, 08:41:58 PM Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim. Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it. Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 08:41:59 PM It's amazing that Dems have done better in NV/AZ/TX than MO/IN/ND. I'm not surprised, but it's fun to see real demographic destiny come true. Yeah, although FL definitely didn't vote to the left of Wisconsin, like everyone was saying it would. FL demographic destiny = old whites as well... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: InheritTheWind on November 08, 2018, 08:42:00 PM This is almost definitely wishful thinking, but Rick Scott is not acting like someone who indeed won this race.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2018, 08:42:24 PM How many votes are there left in Broward? Someone thought earlier tonight that the earlies were done and there were less than 10k absentees left. If so, it would be bad news, means Nelson would need to hope the undervotes were a machine issue that gets fixed in the hand recount (which will happen regardless as a matter of law now). But I haven’t seen confirmation of that anywhere outside of Atlas. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Jeppe on November 08, 2018, 08:42:51 PM Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim. Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it. Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham. Oryx’s numbers are off, he seems to have miscalculated and gave Cisneros an extra 2k votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 08, 2018, 08:42:56 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 08:47:01 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 08:47:22 PM Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim. Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it. Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham. Oryx’s numbers are off, he seems to have miscalculated and gave Cisneros an extra 2k votes. When I typed this, I thought the Kim +3 was just from Orange County, and the other 2K were from LA. That still may be the case as far as I know, seems like it has not been confirmed properly which numbers are right, because CA-39 spans 3 different counties which all report separately. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 08, 2018, 08:51:45 PM The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 08:53:40 PM Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim. Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it. Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham. Oryx’s numbers are off, he seems to have miscalculated and gave Cisneros an extra 2k votes. I wasn't the 2k guy lol. I'm just going out on a limb to defend him because he said he got them from the SOS not OC BOE, so there is a universe where Kim netted 3 from OC, but lost LA big. That's how it played out on eday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 08:54:12 PM The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 08, 2018, 08:55:41 PM Scott is currently giving a press conference about voting discrepancies in Palm Beach and Broward... I’ve only seen a couple minutes, but he said that Nelson is trying to “steal the election from the people of Florida” and made sure to mention that he is utilizing “Hillary Clinton’s lawyers.” Despicable! Definitely sounds like someone who knows he's going to lose and wants to forever taint his opponent's victory. Republicans will never accept Nelson's win now, if the votes do go his way. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 08:56:13 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave. My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 08:56:49 PM The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema. How do we know its R+10? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 08:56:51 PM The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema. It looks better for her, yeah. (Insert usual platitudes about it ain't over until all the votes are counted.) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 08:57:34 PM The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema. How do we know its R+10? R+10 in registration ID, which of course doesn't mean they necessarily voted that way. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 08:58:32 PM The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema. How do we know its R+10? R+10 in registration ID, which of course doesn't mean they necessarily voted that way. Yeah, I think McSally wins it but Sinema keeps the lead since she won a sizable chunk of the Republican vote. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 08:59:12 PM The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema. How do we know its R+10? R+10 in registration ID, which of course doesn't mean they necessarily voted that way. Well, if it makes anybody feel better, the initial results of Maricopa were tied with what I assume was a similar party id. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 08:59:20 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave. My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illini Moderate on November 08, 2018, 09:00:30 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! *rolls eyes Your whining is just getting annoying at this point. Definitely a certified snowflake Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 09:02:02 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave. My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave. It's definitely an outlier...but outliers happen. You wouldn't have expected Gary Peters and Tom Wolf to win by double digits in a Republican wave. Or Harry Reid and Michael Bennet to win re-election in a Republican wave. Pretty much everything outside of Florida is consistent with a wave. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 08, 2018, 09:02:40 PM Anybody, who thought it would end with FakeNews: Now, simply declaring himself election winner suffices. Ask Mr Kemp and Mr Scott how this is done.
If this is not enough, just mention "Hillary Clinton" in any sentence. This justifies anything and deflects from your own misdeeds ;-) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 09:02:47 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave. My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave. Maybe the characterization of Florida as a swing state is becoming less valid. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 09:04:00 PM Still not clear when updated numbers are going to be posted in the SOS system. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 08, 2018, 09:04:05 PM Scott has filed a lawsuit agains the Broward County election supervisor
https://www.nationalreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/scottvsnipes.pdf Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 08, 2018, 09:04:43 PM Scott has filed a lawsuit agains the Broward County election supervisor https://www.nationalreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/scottvsnipes.pdf And Marco Rubio is still complaining to whoever will listen on twitter. () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 09:05:13 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave. My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave. Maybe the characterization of Florida as a swing state is becoming less valid. Then again scott only won by 1 point in 2014 too. Its just tough to make it out. It seems like national environment really does affect it much. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 08, 2018, 09:06:08 PM This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 08, 2018, 09:07:39 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave. My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave. That's basically my caveat too. And I know I'm pissing people off with my negativity, but it's always been there. It's in my username. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Coolface Sock #42069 on November 08, 2018, 09:07:57 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave. My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave. It's definitely an outlier...but outliers happen. You wouldn't have expected Gary Peters and Tom Wolf to win by double digits in a Republican wave. Or Harry Reid and Michael Bennet to win re-election in a Republican wave. Pretty much everything outside of Florida is consistent with a wave. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 09:08:14 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Free North on November 08, 2018, 09:09:38 PM deleted.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 09:10:58 PM This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally. So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 08, 2018, 09:13:36 PM This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally. So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done. It’s actually only two more batches. This conversation is from yesterday, today’s drop was one. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 09:13:51 PM If that's true, good news for Scott
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 09:14:16 PM Can’t someone compare past votes in these counties and this years?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 08, 2018, 09:14:30 PM Can someone explain to me what is going on in Florida? What is Scott trying to accomplish with this lawsuit? Can Nelson win?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 09:15:03 PM This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally. So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done. It’s actually only two more batches. This conversation is from yesterday, today’s drop was one. Okay so we have this one favoring Sinema, the next one will be McSally and number three will be Sinema. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: InheritTheWind on November 08, 2018, 09:15:09 PM This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally. So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done. Yeah if Sinema breaks even or even nets votes from this next batch, she’s won IMO. Anyone know when they’ll be counted? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 09:16:03 PM This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally. So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done. Yeah if Sinema breaks even or even nets votes from this next batch, she’s won IMO. Anyone know when they’ll be counted? There’ll be a batch tomorrow Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 08, 2018, 09:16:27 PM If that's true, good news for Scott I seriously have no idea where you are getting this. All they said was that they finished counting the ballots and were reviewing them, which was expected. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2018, 09:16:35 PM If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall. It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results. I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me! Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave. My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave. It's definitely an outlier...but outliers happen. You wouldn't have expected Gary Peters and Tom Wolf to win by double digits in a Republican wave. Or Harry Reid and Michael Bennet to win re-election in a Republican wave. Pretty much everything outside of Florida is consistent with a wave. Sure, but you can say the same thing here. Scott is a popular incumbent governor who outspent Nelson by a bazillion dollars and will win by like 0.1% if he's lucky. In a "Dem ripple" this race wouldn't even be in question right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 08, 2018, 09:17:41 PM Can someone explain to me what is going on in Florida? What is Scott trying to accomplish with this lawsuit? Can Nelson win? Scott is trying to safety net his victory. Anything is technically possible but I’d put the odds at literally 100/1 against. Then again that’s just my “act” I guess Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 09:18:11 PM If that's true, good news for Scott I seriously have no idea where you are getting this. All they said was that they finished counting the ballots and were reviewing them, which was expected. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 09:18:37 PM This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally. So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done. Yeah if Sinema breaks even or even nets votes from this next batch, she’s won IMO. Anyone know when they’ll be counted? There’ll be a batch tomorrow Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 08, 2018, 09:19:01 PM What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 09:19:52 PM What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward? We'll only know about that after they hand recount all the ballots. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 09:19:55 PM What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward? That will be examined during hand recount Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 08, 2018, 09:22:09 PM What are Porter’s chances in CA-45 looking like?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 08, 2018, 09:27:27 PM What are Porter’s chances in CA-45 looking like? She's almost certain to win. Walters's margin is dropping like a rock as the provisionals and absentees come in, and 538 has the race as LEAN D. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 09:28:05 PM What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward? It's based on a hypothetical but plausible theory of a machine error. There's another plausible theory that the layout of the ballot may explain most or all of the undervote, i.e. voters overlooked the Senate race. As I see it: 1. The race is now close enough that it will go to a hand recount. 2. The hand recount will determine if there really was a machine error. 3. If there was no machine error, Scott has it. 4. If there was a machine error, the result is up in the air. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 09:29:57 PM The size of the undervote in the whole of Broward is closer to 20K than 30K, btw
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 08, 2018, 09:30:42 PM 1. When will the hand recount begin?
2. If it is proven to be a machine error, how many votes can Nelson expect to net from those 30,000? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 08, 2018, 09:38:20 PM The size of the undervote in the whole of Broward is closer to 20K than 30K, btw Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 09:38:57 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 09:47:30 PM This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally. So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done. Yeah if Sinema breaks even or even nets votes from this next batch, she’s won IMO. Anyone know when they’ll be counted? There’ll be a batch tomorrow Plus another large dump from Pima. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 08, 2018, 09:47:44 PM Scott certainly doesn't sound like someone who is winning.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 09:55:02 PM Tump just made things worse in Florida.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 10:02:34 PM The size of the undervote in the whole of Broward is closer to 20K than 30K, btw Yes, but between the two major candidates it's only 21k. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 10:05:14 PM I don't give a crap who wins at this point...sick of hearing about Florida.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 08, 2018, 10:05:37 PM 1. When will the hand recount begin? 2. If it is proven to be a machine error, how many votes can Nelson expect to net from those 30,000? The numbers I've seen suggest it is much closer to 20,000. And some of these will be legitimate undervotes spread randomly across the county (maybe 20%-25%), irrelevant of any "machine error". But the problem appears to be confined to the portion of the county in the 24th congressional district. This is the most Democratic district in the state, being almost 50% black and less than 10% white. It would not be uncommon for a statewide Democratic candidate to win 85% of the vote here. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 08, 2018, 10:10:26 PM So even before the undervote, it's possible that there is still enough votes left in the state to get Nelson the 15k? The hand count should be very interesting...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 08, 2018, 10:14:03 PM Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming. I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better.
Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 10:15:07 PM Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming. I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better. Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes? Probably just Grand Rapids changing Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 10:16:52 PM Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming. I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better. Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes? Probably just Grand Rapids changing MI-03 got moved to Likely-R in a lot of ratings. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 10:17:03 PM Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming. I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better. Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes? I mean he won by 12 and trump only won the district by 9.He did fine enough for someone who didn't bother to campaign. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 08, 2018, 10:19:00 PM *One week ago* () Karen Handel: Whew, that was a close election I squeaked out against Ossof last year. But I'm finally getting into the groove of this whole "Representative" thing. I've just put down a lease on a place here in DC for me and my family to live, I'm making friends and connections and I've found this nice little coffee shop. DC is starting to feel like home! I sure hope nothing happens that forces me to move back to Atlanta - I just forwarded all my subscriptions here! Pretty much this whole thing, but especially the bolded part screams “elitism” to me, lol! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 10:19:23 PM So even before the undervote, it's possible that there is still enough votes left in the state to get Nelson the 15k? The hand count should be very interesting... Since Broward is essentially done, it's highly unlikely Scott has less than a 10K lead going into the recount. The current margin shouldn't change a whole lot based on what's out. There simply aren't that many provisionals (10K at most) and military/overseas ballots tend to be a wash. There might be a few ballots in Palm Beach left, but not very many. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 10:22:28 PM Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming. I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better. Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes? Grand rapids is trending/swinging Dem. Other than Oakland County and Ann Arbor (and one other tiny county in northern Michigan) it was the only part of Michigan that swung to Clinton. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 08, 2018, 10:23:18 PM Who even gives a crap about Florida at this point? Scott is winning. Arizona is where the action is at rn.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 10:26:10 PM So even before the undervote, it's possible that there is still enough votes left in the state to get Nelson the 15k? The hand count should be very interesting... Since Broward is essentially done, it's highly unlikely Scott has less than a 10K lead going into the recount. The current margin shouldn't change a whole lot based on what's out. There simply aren't that many provisionals (10K at most) and military/overseas ballots tend to be a wash. There might be a few ballots in Palm Beach left, but not very many. Broward's votes are still MIA. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 10:27:22 PM So even before the undervote, it's possible that there is still enough votes left in the state to get Nelson the 15k? The hand count should be very interesting... Since Broward is essentially done, it's highly unlikely Scott has less than a 10K lead going into the recount. The current margin shouldn't change a whole lot based on what's out. There simply aren't that many provisionals (10K at most) and military/overseas ballots tend to be a wash. There might be a few ballots in Palm Beach left, but not very many. Broward's votes are still MIA. Dems trying to get false hope to win a florida recount again lol Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 10:27:55 PM Fl lead down another 2k. So 13k with provisionals and military still. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 10:28:30 PM I'm not sure what you are referring to. Broward has still not posted updated totals to its site or to the SOS. Thus, there is a lot of uncertainty as to what impact Broward will have.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 08, 2018, 10:29:16 PM Just relax. If Mrs Sinema wins this, Nelson and Espy, too, it will be anybodies guess what's happening next. Maybe Donald has no love for McConnell anymore, and then tries to fire Mike Pence? Espy isn't winning, lol. Thank you. MS-special is fools gold for the Dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 10:29:38 PM Fl lead down another 2k. So 13k with provisionals and military still. yeah its over Say hello to Senator Rick Scott. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 08, 2018, 10:31:30 PM Fl lead down another 2k. So 13k with provisionals and military still. yeah its over Say hello to Senator Rick Scott. That is premature. Hand counts are wild. There's that 23k pile votes in an 85% dem area that is basically a mystery. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 10:33:30 PM Who even gives a crap about Florida at this point? Scott is winning. Arizona is where the action is at rn. () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 10:35:37 PM That is premature. Hand counts are wild. There's that 23k pile votes in an 85% dem area that is basically a mystery. 23K votes splitting 85%-15% is a margin of about 16,100. So that is in the general ballpark for a narrow Nelson win, potentially. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 08, 2018, 10:35:39 PM Fl lead down another 2k. So 13k with provisionals and military still. yeah its over Say hello to Senator Rick Scott. Hello Senator Scott. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Don Vito Corleone on November 08, 2018, 10:36:29 PM I've not been following Florida at all (been trying to stay off of politics for a while). Can someone ELI5 what's going on?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 10:37:28 PM Current SOS turnout:
() Broward County Turnout report: () As you can see, there are at least several thousand more ballots outstanding not included in the SOS tally of Broward. Throughout the count, even more ballots have been added to the turnout report, so there probably quite a bit more than 4k ballots not included. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 08, 2018, 10:39:20 PM Can someone explain why it's over if the 23K vote tabulation in a 85-15 Dem area is real and Nelson is down 13K with provisionals still outstanding? Is that too big of an if?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 08, 2018, 10:39:24 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 10:39:41 PM Christ, it's useless correcting you people. No one even reads the thread before they post.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 08, 2018, 10:40:12 PM Scott truly deserves to be senator
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 10:40:46 PM Christ, it's useless correcting you people. No one even reads the thread before they post. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 10:41:28 PM Christ, it's useless correcting you people. No one even reads the thread before they post. The SOS site is not updated because the Broward County SOE has not transmitted the data yet! Read the f**king local reporters! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2018, 10:42:38 PM Christ, it's useless correcting you people. No one even reads the thread before they post. The SOS site is not updated because the Broward County SOE has not transmitted the data yet! Read the f**king local reporters! Then stop saying that Broward is finished, as it clearly isn't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 10:43:33 PM Can someone explain why it's over if the 23K vote tabulation in a 85-15 Dem area is real and Nelson is down 13K with provisionals still outstanding? Is that too big of an if? They are not in 85-15 territory. Most are not even in 67-33 territory. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 10:43:38 PM I've not been following Florida at all (been trying to stay off of politics for a while). Can someone ELI5 what's going on? The votes are being counted, and Republicans are complaining because they oppose democracy. It may sound harsh, but it's true. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 08, 2018, 10:44:06 PM Christ, it's useless correcting you people. No one even reads the thread before they post. The SOS site is not updated because the Broward County SOE has not transmitted the data yet! Read the f**king local reporters! Then stop saying that Broward is finished, as it clearly isn't. Except for provisionals and overseas, they are. The SOS page is not up to date. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 10:44:56 PM Can someone explain why it's over if the 23K vote tabulation in a 85-15 Dem area is real and Nelson is down 13K with provisionals still outstanding? Is that too big of an if? It isn't over, there is an automatic hand recount that is going to happen in which they will figure out what happened with the 85-15 Dem area and the undervotes there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2018, 10:46:06 PM I imagine this would drop Scott's lead below 10,000. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 10:46:58 PM So if that favors Nelson and the undervotes in Broward pan out, then Nelson probably (?) wins. Knowing that those overseas ballots are Dem-skewing explains a bit more why Scott was sweating so much at his press conference. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 10:47:55 PM I imagine this would drop Scott's lead below 10,000. It doesn't matter until 2000 really and then Nelson would be lucky to win. Recounts dont flip 10,000 vote margins. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 10:48:22 PM Scott truly deserves to be senator No candidate deserves to be anything. The only people who deserve anything are the voters, and the voters deserve to have their votes properly counted. Nobody is entitled to political office in a democracy - that is supposed to be up to the will of the people. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fargobison on November 08, 2018, 10:55:41 PM I've not been following Florida at all (been trying to stay off of politics for a while). Can someone ELI5 what's going on? The votes are being counted, and Republicans are complaining because they oppose democracy. It may sound harsh, but it's true. There are some legit compliants, the Broward county election supervisor is legitmatelly incompetent and is struggling to answer simple questions. I'm not saying anything shady is happening but it isn't a good look, this needs to be her last election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 08, 2018, 10:56:24 PM Scott certainly doesn't sound like someone who is winning. He was sweating and ranting like a man who's about to be caught. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 10:59:04 PM So, FWIW...
() The part in the red is the part with the undervote. This is the FL-24 part of Broward County. And the FL-24 part of Broward County voted for Clinton over Trump by 24,237 to 8,010 in 2016 (73.4% to 24.2%). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dzkbgPlIKdp6e8dhWWD2lOsTr537orDNunLRBOTHx2o/edit#gid=255036234 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 08, 2018, 11:00:14 PM Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well:
Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch) -2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000 -2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson -16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes = A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson. Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 11:02:21 PM Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well: Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch) -2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000 -2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson -16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes = A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson. Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old. lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 08, 2018, 11:03:56 PM I've not been following Florida at all (been trying to stay off of politics for a while). Can someone ELI5 what's going on? Rick Scott is trying to steal the election but those of us on Atlas Forum are foiling him Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 08, 2018, 11:05:45 PM Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well: Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch) -2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000 -2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson -16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes = A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson. Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old. lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win. Seriously, they did the math. There are 23K votes that may have been miscounted, ones that can only be counted in a hand by hand recount. There is clearly a path, it just needs this to be a machine error, and not a purposeful one(it is more likely a machine error, as absentees and mail in ballots had the same problem). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 08, 2018, 11:08:10 PM Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well: Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch) -2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000 -2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson -16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes = A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson. Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old. lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win. First of all, try something against your possible dyscalculasia. All the information in this thread leads to a 15000-20000 = -5000 Scott thus +5000 Nelson estimate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pollster on November 08, 2018, 11:14:33 PM Given the amount of spending on the race from both parties, I find it extremely hard to believe that 20-30k people "missed" the Senate race and "forgot" to vote in it, regardless of where it was placed on the ballot.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 08, 2018, 11:16:54 PM Seriously, they did the math. There are 23K votes that may have been miscounted, ones that can only be counted in a hand by hand recount. There is clearly a path, it just needs this to be a machine error, and not a purposeful one(it is more likely a machine error, as absentees and mail in ballots had the same problem). Thanks for assisting. There are 3 possible sources from which Sen Nelson still can pull this out: 20k VBM , the missing latest report of Broward county and the 23k undervotes. The press conference of Gov.Scott follows the same path which bully Trump uses to intimidate people. I've seen these shameless accusation tatics over and over again. Seriously to all Trump apologists: Is there anything why he MUST mention Hillary Clinton's association with a lawyer in this totally unrelated topic? He accuses the Broward county election official with alledged fraud without presenting any proof. Just like Brian Kemp who declared himself victor before the last votes have been counted Most likely, one of the votung machines has malfunctioned thus there must be a recount as the result is under the 0.5% threshold. Gov. Scott says that there should be no recount as the lawyer is connected to HRC. This is totally bananas and on Conway-level. He should have mentioned Maxine Waters to solidify his totally convinving arguments ;-) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 08, 2018, 11:20:49 PM I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 11:21:03 PM Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well: Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch) -2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000 -2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson -16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes = A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson. Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old. lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win. First of all, try something against your possible dyscalculasia. All the information in this thread leads to a 15000-20000 = -5000 Scott thus +5000 Nelson estimate. Note, however, that I posted above that in the FL-24 area of Broward County, the 2016 Presidential vote was Clinton 73.4% to 24.2%. So supposing that there are 23k ballots from that area and they split about 75-25 for Nelson, that would come out to a margin of about 11500, not a margin of 16000. So that would change your #s to this: Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch) -2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000 -2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson -11500 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes = A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 500 votes Which is much closer. Personally, I do sincerely hope that the final result ends up being Nelson winning by 537 votes. It would be epic karmic justice. If all your numbers are about correct, then we would be pretty close to that, so I hope that is what happens. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 08, 2018, 11:25:04 PM […] Which is much closer. Personally, I do sincerely hope that the final result ends up being Nelson winning by 537 votes. It would be epic karmic justice. If all your numbers are about correct, then we would be pretty close to that, so I hope that is what happens. The VBM is mentioned in a post somewhat earlier. The final Broward County no is mentioned/linked by Steve Schale. I do not know if these are totally correct, yet this is a plausible way to explain the murky press conference of Gov. Scott. Honestly, if you had invested 30 M$ into this, what would you have done? I would even put Hillary, Obama's birth certificate, George Soros and Nancy Pelosi as a reasoning/deflectoral argument to make "The Base" forget about some obscure recount law which costs me the election ;-) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 11:26:15 PM I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ? Re: AZ, it’ll be a narrow result but I’m not sure I see much of a path for McSally Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 08, 2018, 11:26:28 PM I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ? OK, something about Arizona. Mark Kelly, an Astronaut from Arizona who previously launched into space from Cape Canaveral in Florida, might potentially run for Senate in Arizona in 2020. If he does so, he would be the second Senator to have launched into Space from Cape Canaveral in Florida - and depending on the outcome of the 2018 Senate race in Florida, he might serve simultaneously with his colleague Bill Nelson, Senator from Florida who also launched into space from Cape Canaveral. Voters love Spacemen, you know. Have you had your Arizona fix, and now can we get back to Florida? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 08, 2018, 11:33:10 PM I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ? What about his wife, Giffords? She has a very inspiring story. Though I would completely understand if she doesn't want to run for office again. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Aurelio21 on November 08, 2018, 11:34:41 PM I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ? Sorry, Kirsten Sinema is winning, as the VBM is skewing democratic. McSally is sueing their own Republican SoS Michelle Reagan trying to stop her counting. But this does not work, she did not have a press conference at which she blames Hillary Clinton, George Soros, the Caravan (which does not exist anymore as Fox News has failed to deliver the HoR to Trump) or Nancy Pelosi. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 08, 2018, 11:36:10 PM It must be a machine error I don't see how people could miss it the senate race.
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 08, 2018, 11:38:29 PM I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ? It's ironic how people here talking on and on and on about Florida when there's a race is Arizona that the Democrats are can (and maybe even slightly favored) to win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 08, 2018, 11:40:29 PM Is there any chance that Democrats pick up the AZ SoS? If so, how likely?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 08, 2018, 11:40:50 PM Wow. Honestly, as a Democrat, we all have A LOT to be happy about.
Our strength in the house continues to grow with multiple surprise victories. Kendra Horn in Ok ( !! ), Lucy McBath in GA ( !! ), and more. We've won 7 governors seats and, let's be honest, the RINO Governors in many blue states aren't really a danger to a Democratic agenda. It increasingly seems like we'll keep Republicans to a single seat gain in the Senate, - or maybe even keep it to the status quo. That's a HUGE victory. Nevada was won easily. Arizona looks like a likely gain. And Florida is increasingly looking like a surprise HOLD while even the Governors race could, in a recount, flip! This will make retaking the Senate in 2020, imo, LIKELY. And if we take the Presidency in 2020, bam, you have Democratic control of all 3 branches of government. This was entirely a blue wave, maybe not everywhere -- but in enough places to matter. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 08, 2018, 11:41:31 PM It must be a machine error I don't see how people could miss it the senate race. () You don't see how people could screw this up? In Florida, the universe's center of screwing things up? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2018, 11:41:56 PM Wow. Honestly, as a Democrat, we all have A LOT to be happy about. Our strength in the house continues to grow with multiple surprise victories. Kendra Horn in Ok ( !! ), Lucy McBath in GA ( !! ), and more. We've won 7 governors seats and, let's be honest, the RINO Governors in many blue states aren't really a danger to a Democratic agenda. It increasingly seems like we'll keep Republicans to a single seat gain in the Senate, - or maybe even keep it to the status quo. That's a HUGE victory. Nevada was won easily. Arizona looks like a likely gain. And Florida is increasingly looking like a surprise HOLD while even the Governors race could, in a recount, flip! This will make retaking the Senate in 2020, imo, LIKELY. And if we take the Presidency in 2020, bam, you have Democratic control of all 3 branches of government. This was entirely a blue wave, maybe not everywhere -- but in enough places to matter. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 11:45:14 PM I really dont see a path for Gillum, but I do think Nelson has one, albeit a very narrow one.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 08, 2018, 11:45:44 PM I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ? OK, something about Arizona. Mark Kelly, an Astronaut from Arizona who previously launched into space from Cape Canaveral in Florida, might potentially run for Senate in Arizona in 2020. If he does so, he would be the second Senator to have launched into Space from Cape Canaveral in Florida - and depending on the outcome of the 2018 Senate race in Florida, he might serve simultaneously with his colleague Bill Nelson, Senator from Florida who also launched into space from Cape Canaveral. Voters love Spacemen, you know. Have you had your Arizona fix, and now can we get back to Florida? What about Harrison Schmitt? I do agree though that Kelly would be far and away the best possible Dem candidate for this seat. Absolutely a dream recruit. And for people complaining there isn't enough AZ info here, why not just check out the designated AZ thread? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 08, 2018, 11:45:44 PM American ballots are, frankly, horrible. I understand, many races are run at the same time and having a separate ballot for each race may be somewhat impractical, but these are monstrosities. I mean, have you seen a Mexican ballot?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 08, 2018, 11:50:31 PM American ballots are, frankly, horrible. I understand, many races are run at the same time and having a separate ballot for each race may be somewhat impractical, but these are monstrosities. I mean, have you seen a Mexican ballot? () It is nice looking. Can you not cross party vote in Mexico though? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 11:51:50 PM American ballots are, frankly, horrible. I understand, many races are run at the same time and having a separate ballot for each race may be somewhat impractical, but these are monstrosities. I mean, have you seen a Mexican ballot? Wanna hear something even worse, the Florida ballot was 5 pages long double sided. Even worse, the little cubicles most Florida polling states employ are much too short, so the ballot cant even be layed down flat to fill it out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 08, 2018, 11:56:55 PM American ballots are, frankly, horrible. I understand, many races are run at the same time and having a separate ballot for each race may be somewhat impractical, but these are monstrosities. I mean, have you seen a Mexican ballot? () It is nice looking. Can you not cross party vote in Mexico though? You can. There were 6 races that day and we got 6 ballots each: nice and simple. Just mark each ballot separately for whatever party (or independent) you like. The only complication is that if multiple parties nominate the same candidate, you could vote for that candidate either by marking just one party, or by marking both (or all three): the vote is still valid and it matters for parties' future government financing. But a vote for multiple parties with different candidates would be invalid. Then, again, in my precinct exactly one out of nearly 400 voters made that mistake (I know: I was the president of the precinct this time, so I actually took out each ballot from the box and showed it to all those present). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 09, 2018, 12:00:23 AM The experience of American democracy is much like that of living in an old, decrepit house in which nothing has been updated or replaced for years, or even decades. Conditions are uncomfortable and ugly, and few things work as intended. But it's rare for anything to be improved, because the tenants are too senile, lazy, impoverished, or stubborn to tolerate change. (And of course the landlord doesn't care as long as the rent check arrives on time each month.) I know. And, in fact, it is hard to repair: each time you try to replace a particular tube, you risk the whole house collapsing. In this particular case, the only thing that prevents US elections from massive hacking is how disorganised they are: any hacker would have to separately deal with hundreds of completely independent systems. So, trying to make any centralised improvements may only make things worse. But, frankly, ballot design is not such a horribly complicated task - you do not need a Harvard Ph.D. to come up with something more sensible. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 09, 2018, 12:32:08 AM The experience of American democracy is much like that of living in an old, decrepit house in which nothing has been updated or replaced for years, or even decades. Conditions are uncomfortable and ugly, and few things work as intended. But it's rare for anything to be improved, because the tenants are too senile, lazy, impoverished, or stubborn to tolerate change. (And of course the landlord doesn't care as long as the rent check arrives on time each month.) I know. And, in fact, it is hard to repair: each time you try to replace a particular tube, you risk the whole house collapsing. In this particular case, the only thing that prevents US elections from massive hacking is how disorganised they are: any hacker would have to separately deal with hundreds of completely independent systems. So, trying to make any centralised improvements may only make things worse. But, frankly, ballot design is not such a horribly complicated task - you do not need a Harvard Ph.D. to come up with something more sensible. Well, the obvious fix to that is to discontinue all voting machines and move entirely to paper ballots, and have them be manually counted by real human beings from the start. You know, like most countries do. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 09, 2018, 12:36:09 AM The experience of American democracy is much like that of living in an old, decrepit house in which nothing has been updated or replaced for years, or even decades. Conditions are uncomfortable and ugly, and few things work as intended. But it's rare for anything to be improved, because the tenants are too senile, lazy, impoverished, or stubborn to tolerate change. (And of course the landlord doesn't care as long as the rent check arrives on time each month.) I know. And, in fact, it is hard to repair: each time you try to replace a particular tube, you risk the whole house collapsing. In this particular case, the only thing that prevents US elections from massive hacking is how disorganised they are: any hacker would have to separately deal with hundreds of completely independent systems. So, trying to make any centralised improvements may only make things worse. But, frankly, ballot design is not such a horribly complicated task - you do not need a Harvard Ph.D. to come up with something more sensible. Well, the obvious fix to that is to discontinue all voting machines and move entirely to paper ballots, and have them be manually counted by real human beings from the start. You know, like most countries do. It might, actually, be both cheaper and faster. There are ways of doing that voting machine thingy well (see India), but US has not mastered it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 09, 2018, 12:44:28 AM I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ? It's ironic how people here talking on and on and on about Florida when there's a race is Arizona that the Democrats are can (and maybe even slightly favored) to win. Good point.... even in the AZ CD-08 SE it took some time to cast ballots that tended to skew heavily DEM towards the endgame of the vote count... There was an extremely large thread on this subject barely six months back.... https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.375 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Blair on November 09, 2018, 02:17:36 AM Those ballots are hideously big- and so crowded. I would ask why you don’t have separate state and federal ballots but of course that would only lead to more problems.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ben. on November 09, 2018, 03:01:39 AM The experience of American democracy is much like that of living in an old, decrepit house in which nothing has been updated or replaced for years, or even decades. Conditions are uncomfortable and ugly, and few things work as intended. But it's rare for anything to be improved, because the tenants are too senile, lazy, impoverished, or stubborn to tolerate change. (And of course the landlord doesn't care as long as the rent check arrives on time each month.) I know. And, in fact, it is hard to repair: each time you try to replace a particular tube, you risk the whole house collapsing. In this particular case, the only thing that prevents US elections from massive hacking is how disorganised they are: any hacker would have to separately deal with hundreds of completely independent systems. So, trying to make any centralised improvements may only make things worse. But, frankly, ballot design is not such a horribly complicated task - you do not need a Harvard Ph.D. to come up with something more sensible. Well, the obvious fix to that is to discontinue all voting machines and move entirely to paper ballots, and have them be manually counted by real human beings from the start. You know, like most countries do. It might, actually, be both cheaper and faster. There are ways of doing that voting machine thingy well (see India), but US has not mastered it. But what would happen then to those tech companies that want to sell electronic voting systems to state governments?! ;) And who wants to wait 8 hours to get a full result?! It would be much easier, simpler and cheaper. Not going to happen though. Voting times should also be extended like in most other democracies, but I digress... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: American2020 on November 09, 2018, 05:01:47 AM It'll be so close in Arizona.
Quote Democrat Kyrsten Sinema pulled ahead of Republican Martha McSally on Thursday in the Arizona Senate race by a margin of 2,000 votes. This marked the first time that Sinema has pulled ahead of McSally in the days since the election. An additional 120,000 outstanding ballots were made available from Maricopa County Thursday. The county encompasses Phoenix and some of the state's liberal enclaves. There are an 345,000 ballots that needed to be counted per a knowledgeable source with the Arizona Secretary of State's office. Republicans filed a lawsuit Wednesday night to challenge the way some Arizona counties count mail-in ballots, as election officials began to slowly tally more than 600,000 outstanding votes in the narrow U.S. Senate race. The task that could take days. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/arizona-senate-race-democrat-kyrsten-sinema-small-lead-over-republican-martha-mcsally-live-updates-today-2018-11-08/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/arizona-senate-race-democrat-kyrsten-sinema-small-lead-over-republican-martha-mcsally-live-updates-today-2018-11-08/) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Inmate Trump on November 09, 2018, 05:07:51 AM When will we know something substantial about Florida?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 09, 2018, 06:30:20 AM At the very least, with nearly presidential-level turnout, Dems improved on Clinton's margins just about everywhere, which is reassuring. Both sides were energized, and dems improved their margins everywhere, and got VERY close in places like TX, GA, AZ (where we might still win), so that's good.
Really, the only dissapointing spots were obviously Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, and FL. And in those places, we still beat Hillary's margin. Also, Donnelly is down less than 7 now in the IN race, which isn't horrific. In like a 75-80% of presidential level turnout, we took places where Trump won by 20 and cut that more than in half. Means Dems WERE energized and out there, but some places are just too red now where sometimes candidates don't matter anymore. Still shook about my home state of PA. While I'm sad we just missed out on places like PA-1, PA-10, and PA-16, the margins for Casey and Wolf were massive for a swing state. Barletta was pretty much generic R to a tee and Casey still won by +13%. The margins were way higher in PA than WI and MI. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vega on November 09, 2018, 07:20:37 AM Those ballots are hideously big- and so crowded. I would ask why you don’t have separate state and federal ballots but of course that would only lead to more problems. It would? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: AtorBoltox on November 09, 2018, 07:46:07 AM 35+ seats in the house
At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 09, 2018, 07:49:41 AM I'm sorry, they are oddly under the impression that Walters and Kim won in CA:
"Mimi Walters [Republican, Calif.-45] ran a great campaign, won a very tough race in a tough district. She was outspent by almost $3 million. Young Kim [Republican, Calif.-39] was one of our biggest expenditures in Orange County. I think she will be a future superstar of the party, the first Korean-American woman ever elected to Congress." https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/09/democratic-republican-majority-house-election-2018-222400 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 07:58:18 AM I'm sorry, they are oddly under the impression that Walters and Kim won in CA: "Mimi Walters [Republican, Calif.-45] ran a great campaign, won a very tough race in a tough district. She was outspent by almost $3 million. Young Kim [Republican, Calif.-39] was one of our biggest expenditures in Orange County. I think she will be a future superstar of the party, the first Korean-American woman ever elected to Congress." https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/09/democratic-republican-majority-house-election-2018-222400 It's amazing how many in the political media, who's job it is to cover congress, have no idea how the different state's voting processes work. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 09, 2018, 08:01:24 AM 35+ seats in the house At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends TBH, I'm a bit disappointed with the governors numbers. I expected at minimum 8 pick-ups. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 09, 2018, 08:11:21 AM MS: Likely R, close to safe FL: Tossup AZ: Lean D? Looks like this prediction was pretty good 8) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Inmate Trump on November 09, 2018, 08:13:48 AM 35+ seats in the house At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends TBH, I'm a bit disappointed with the governors numbers. I expected at minimum 8 pick-ups. Other than Florida, I wasn’t expecting too much more, honestly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 09, 2018, 08:18:36 AM My opinion of the night has steadily gotten better over time.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 08:57:39 AM Scott certainly doesn't sound like someone who is winning. He sounds like a typical Republican whose God given right to Victory is being challenged. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 09:05:29 AM Scott truly deserves to be senator Because he's very very rich. Got it Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 09, 2018, 09:08:54 AM I'm sorry, they are oddly under the impression that Walters and Kim won in CA: "Mimi Walters [Republican, Calif.-45] ran a great campaign, won a very tough race in a tough district. She was outspent by almost $3 million. Young Kim [Republican, Calif.-39] was one of our biggest expenditures in Orange County. I think she will be a future superstar of the party, the first Korean-American woman ever elected to Congress." https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/09/democratic-republican-majority-house-election-2018-222400 It's amazing how many in the political media, who's job it is to cover congress, have no idea how the different state's voting processes work. This was an interview, so the quotation is from a Republican political organizer, not Politico themselves. Still, it's pretty incompetent for him to be talking about Walters and Kim as if they actually won; either he's just spinning, or, despite being a lead political organizer for the Republican Party, he doesn't know how vote-counting works (perhaps indicative of how poorly organized the Republican campaign was). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 09:12:12 AM Wow. Honestly, as a Democrat, we all have A LOT to be happy about. Our strength in the house continues to grow with multiple surprise victories. Kendra Horn in Ok ( !! ), Lucy McBath in GA ( !! ), and more. We've won 7 governors seats and, let's be honest, the RINO Governors in many blue states aren't really a danger to a Democratic agenda. It increasingly seems like we'll keep Republicans to a single seat gain in the Senate, - or maybe even keep it to the status quo. That's a HUGE victory. Nevada was won easily. Arizona looks like a likely gain. And Florida is increasingly looking like a surprise HOLD while even the Governors race could, in a recount, flip! This will make retaking the Senate in 2020, imo, LIKELY. And if we take the Presidency in 2020, bam, you have Democratic control of all 3 branches of government. This was entirely a blue wave, maybe not everywhere -- but in enough places to matter. Didn't you basically LOL Nelson can't win only two or three posts ago? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 09:16:42 AM Scott's lead was cut by about another 500 votes:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 09, 2018, 09:17:33 AM Andy Kim's lead in NJ-03 has expanded, he's now up more than 1% (around 3,500 votes). I think it was the remaining Willingboro votes, which he didn't end up needing to take the lead because of absentees but did pad his margin. There are now no precincts outstanding, though maybe a handful of absentees and provisionals. Seems like that race should be called; 1.1% is a significantly wider margin than any other uncalled race outside of California and UT-04 (where a lot of ballots remain to be counted).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 09, 2018, 09:19:52 AM Andy Kim's lead in NJ-03 has expanded, he's now up more than 1% (around 3,500 votes). I think it was the remaining Willingboro votes, which he didn't end up needing to take the lead because of absentees but did pad his margin. There are now no precincts outstanding, though maybe a handful of absentees and provisionals. Seems like that race should be called; 1.1% is a significantly wider margin than any other uncalled race outside of California and UT-04 (where a lot of ballots remain to be counted). Congratulations to the real first Korean-American congressperson! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 09, 2018, 09:21:54 AM Andy Kim's lead in NJ-03 has expanded, he's now up more than 1% (around 3,500 votes). I think it was the remaining Willingboro votes, which he didn't end up needing to take the lead because of absentees but did pad his margin. There are now no precincts outstanding, though maybe a handful of absentees and provisionals. Seems like that race should be called; 1.1% is a significantly wider margin than any other uncalled race outside of California and UT-04 (where a lot of ballots remain to be counted). Congratulations to the real first Korean-American congressperson! Some guy was elected in Southern California in the early 1990s... I think in Riverside? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 09, 2018, 09:26:20 AM Can't wait until Trump hears about this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 09:26:46 AM My opinion of the night has steadily gotten better over time. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 09, 2018, 09:30:08 AM Is Scott still favoured to win?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 09, 2018, 09:30:12 AM My opinion of the night has steadily gotten better over time. Yep. I was happy about the house but still not entirely satisfied on election night. Now with nearly 40 seats and possibly AZ and even FL (!!!), it's not looking bad at all. Definite wave. Not sure why NJ-03 hasn't been called yet for Kim. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 09, 2018, 09:34:03 AM 35+ seats in the house At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. :) Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats. The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 09:34:16 AM Is Scott still favoured to win? Probably. If the hand recount shows a big error was made in Broward then Nelson has a shot. If not, he doesn’t. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 09, 2018, 09:45:35 AM 35+ seats in the house At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. :) Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats. The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. I'm still of the view that it wasn't a blue wave, but something else altogether that doesn't have a pre-determined term. What do you make of people claiming it was a red wave? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 09:45:37 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 09:46:20 AM With so much of Maricopa and Pima Out it’s hard to draw a different conclusion Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cg41386 on November 09, 2018, 09:50:32 AM Reading all these posts about how Florida’s ballots work make me thankful I live in New Jersey.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 09, 2018, 09:50:44 AM Is Scott still favoured to win? I’d say it’s 95% Scott wins. They may be out of votes by now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 09, 2018, 09:51:50 AM Is Scott still favoured to win? I’d say it’s 95% Scott wins. They may be out of votes by now. It's 50/50 at this point given what we know. The trajectory isn't favorable to Scott. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 09, 2018, 10:04:15 AM 35+ seats in the house At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. :) Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats. The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. I'm still of the view that it wasn't a blue wave, but something else altogether that doesn't have a pre-determined term. What do you make of people claiming it was a red wave? I honestly don't see how this can be viewed as anything other than a wave. The only comparable midterm for Democrats since 1986 (or maybe 1990 too since the popular vote win was pretty large) is 2006, a wave. You simply do not make these kinds of gains in non-waves, nor do you experience such a large swing in the House PV. The Senate is irrelevant in this case. We held so many seats, with many in deeply Republican states, that it was arguably the most lopsided map since the beginning of direct elections for Senators. Holding all these seats was always going to be really hard, although admittedly I thought we'd do a little better myself. Imagine if we held every seat in this class heading into this cycle. We could have theoretically lost upwards of 8 or more seats just based on how ridiculously Republican some of them are, but still gained 70 seats in the House too in what you'd have to be mad to argue was not a wave, going by seat changes and popular vote support at every other level of govt. The best place to look for a wave is the House, since every seat is up and you can measure the swing in popular vote much more accurately. And this result rarely happens for Democrats anymore. Beyond a certain point, the Senate is not an accurate way to measure this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Illini Moderate on November 09, 2018, 10:04:22 AM I'd say there's a 90 percent chance Scott will win. The margin is just too large.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 09, 2018, 10:05:49 AM I'd say there's a 90 percent chance Scott will win. The margin is just too large. Yeah, we're looking at 90% Scott victory and 90% Sinema victory Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: psychprofessor on November 09, 2018, 10:13:45 AM I'd say there's a 90 percent chance Scott will win. The margin is just too large. I'm not so sure about that...once you get into hand recount territory after all the initial ballots are accounted for, a 10-15k gap out of over 8 million isn't too large Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 10:15:34 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 09, 2018, 10:20:05 AM 35+ seats in the house At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. :) Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats. The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. I'm still of the view that it wasn't a blue wave, but something else altogether that doesn't have a pre-determined term. What do you make of people claiming it was a red wave? Likewise,if the term "net loss" is used in regard to the House, it isn't red wave either. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Vega on November 09, 2018, 10:22:59 AM Andy Kim's lead in NJ-03 has expanded, he's now up more than 1% (around 3,500 votes). I think it was the remaining Willingboro votes, which he didn't end up needing to take the lead because of absentees but did pad his margin. There are now no precincts outstanding, though maybe a handful of absentees and provisionals. Seems like that race should be called; 1.1% is a significantly wider margin than any other uncalled race outside of California and UT-04 (where a lot of ballots remain to be counted). Congratulations to the real first Korean-American congressperson! Some guy was elected in Southern California in the early 1990s... I think in Riverside? Jay Kim, who was a very real Korean-American, but served a portion of his term on house arrest. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 09, 2018, 10:29:32 AM People all over the internet are putting WAY too much effort into determining whether or not it's a "wave". Who cares?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: colincb on November 09, 2018, 10:33:24 AM I'd say there's a 90 percent chance Scott will win. The margin is just too large. Yeah, we're looking at 90% Scott victory and 90% Sinema victory 90% Sinema victory. AZ looks pretty much over. 75-80% Scott. The critical issue to be resolved is the undervotes. I'm not convinced it's ballot design. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 09, 2018, 10:36:49 AM People all over the internet are putting WAY too much effort into determining whether or not it's a "wave". Who cares? I just can't help but want to interject. It's like I am looking at a car but yet can't understand why every once in a while someone comes by and says its a bicycle. It just seems like it's so obvious it should speak for itself. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 10:45:14 AM Is Scott still favoured to win? I’d say it’s 95% Scott wins. They may be out of votes by now. It's 50/50 at this point given what we know. The trajectory isn't favorable to Scott. out of votes recounts dont flip until hundreds. Hand recount is just a waste of time and money. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 09, 2018, 10:47:52 AM 35+ seats in the house At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. :) Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats. The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. I'm still of the view that it wasn't a blue wave, but something else altogether that doesn't have a pre-determined term. What do you make of people claiming it was a red wave? They're idiots? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 09, 2018, 10:49:46 AM I'd say there's a 90 percent chance Scott will win. The margin is just too large. Yeah, we're looking at 90% Scott victory and 90% Sinema victory 90% Sinema victory. AZ looks pretty much over. 75-80% Scott. The critical issue to be resolved is the undervotes. I'm not convinced it's ballot design. This is about where I am, too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 10:50:31 AM There might be more votes in Broward than we currently know of, because Team Nelson is suing in federal court that they allow more time for counties to turn in their unoffical vote counts.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 10:51:16 AM There might be more votes in Broward than we currently know of, because Team Nelson is suing in federal court that they allow more time for counties to turn in their unoffical vote counts. Of course they gonna sue but Nelson is doomed anyway. Pathethic FDP Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 09, 2018, 10:57:47 AM 35+ seats in the house At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. :) Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats. The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. I'm still of the view that it wasn't a blue wave, but something else altogether that doesn't have a pre-determined term. What do you make of people claiming it was a red wave? Likewise,if the term "net loss" is used in regard to the House, it isn't red wave either. J.J., you may be interested to learn that 100% of the House is up for election every two years, while only 1/3 of the Senate plus special elections is up every two years, and Democrats went into this election with something like a 75% share of Senate seats. If that gets knocked down to a 65-35 win, well, you can tell yourself what you like about what “net loss” means, but I think other posters here will draw their own conclusions. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 09, 2018, 11:15:34 AM Even if the margin narrows to 13k votes it will be very hard for Nelson to win
He has to win more than 19000 of the 25000 votes then to win and that means he will have to win over 75% of the undercount Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 11:18:36 AM Even if the margin narrows to 13k votes it will be very hard for Nelson to win He has to win more than 19000 of the 25000 votes then to win and that means he will have to win over 75% of the undercount yeah people want false hope and its funny. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 09, 2018, 11:20:26 AM If the margin narrows down to around 10K due to provisionals, the possible error may very well put Nelson over the finish line.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: JG on November 09, 2018, 11:21:36 AM Even if the margin narrows to 13k votes it will be very hard for Nelson to win He has to win more than 19000 of the 25000 votes then to win and that means he will have to win over 75% of the undercount I mean, if Gillum has 25k votes more than Nelson in that county, doesn't it mean the the undercount might be superior to 25k since I would assume most Gillum voters would have voted for Nelson? How do DeSantis's and Scott's compare to each other in that area? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 09, 2018, 11:24:31 AM Even if the margin narrows to 13k votes it will be very hard for Nelson to win He has to win more than 19000 of the 25000 votes then to win and that means he will have to win over 75% of the undercount I mean, if Gillum has 25k votes more than Nelson in that county, doesn't it mean the the undercount might be superior to 25k since I would assume most Gillum voters would have voted for Nelson? How do DeSantis's and Scott's compare to each other in that area? At this point we don't know if it's an undercount or an *undervote* caused by bad ballot design. If it's the latter, well, statistically we know how 99% of those votes would have gone but there's no recourse. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SLA8 on November 09, 2018, 11:29:49 AM I'm more and more convinced it's an undervote (although I was floating the possibility of the undercount yesterday). The recount will catch it and dispel our doubts, but as many have said FL-SEN looks like it's Scott's race to lose.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 11:36:19 AM Another Nelson lawsuit in FL:
They might have appoint given that Former Rep. Patrick Murphy had his ballot rejected: Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 09, 2018, 11:38:56 AM What the heck is going on with Utah? Are they going to finish counting by Thanksgiving?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 09, 2018, 11:39:49 AM I highly doubt the undervote/provisional ballots are alone enough to pull Nelson ahead.
But people keep insisting that the regular vote is completed. People have been suggesting that for the last two days, and yet vote from Broward keeps coming in. Is there any reason to believe they have actually completed counting their regular early and VBM ballots (or at least completed submitting them to the state)? This FL Department of Elections website suggests they haven't: floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus (https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus) That site shows the Broward early and VBM count as still incomplete. And the website IS being continuously update, because they keep adding to the count of counties that have completed their provisional ballots. I don't know why anyone would be confident that we have any idea how many votes are still outstanding. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 09, 2018, 11:40:01 AM What the heck is going on with Utah? Are they going to finish counting by Thanksgiving? They'll get back to you eventually. :p Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 11:44:53 AM 35+ seats in the house At least a 7% popular vote victory Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map 7 governors mansions gained This is a wave my friends As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. :) Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats. The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. Going from the numbers on atlas's results page for the Senate, Democrats won the popular vote in Senate races Nationwide by 10 million votes and 10 percentage points. Granted, a large chunk of that has to do with California being a top 2 race between a pair of Democrats, but even if one were to give every single one of De Leon's votes to the Republican column - - which I believe we can all agree is completely ludicrous, but just for sake of argument - - Democrats still won by over 4 million votes and more than five percentage points Nationwide. In reality, only assessing the appropriate share of de Leon votes, and some Feinstein votes as well I assume, to the Republican column and there was at least as big wave in terms of percentage points in raw boats as in the house. If the house was a wave, then the Senate was too. The results were obviously not as good for Democrats because of the increasingly undemocratic shift towards hard-core Republican rural States and strongly democratic Urban States, but then again if the house wasn't so damn gerrymandered oh, it would have easily been over a 60 seat pickup for the Democrats as well. So yeah, Republicans we're safe from a complete f****** in the house by gerrymandering, and our saved by the fact places of North Dakota and Wyoming have as many senators as New York and California. But in terms of which way the wind is blowing, this was a disastrous year for the Republicans. Institutional and structural advantages save them. They will probably need to do much better for the Electoral College save Trump again in 2020. One more point about the Senate. It's undemocratic nature was not particularly a problem in the good old days of just 20 to 30 years ago when places like The Dakotas would elect Democrats to the Senate and places like New York or California would elect Republicans. However, that only versus Urban / Suburban divide now makes the Senate essentially a nationwide gerrymander. Add the filibuster in with it, and it just shows how f***** up our system of government is. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 09, 2018, 11:46:13 AM Whether you're a Nelson supporter or not, I don't understand why anyone is so keen to say that there's no need to verify the votes. Don't people, as a general principle, want people's valid votes to count?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 09, 2018, 11:47:42 AM I highly doubt the undervote/provisional ballots are alone enough to pull Nelson ahead. But people keep insisting that the regular vote is completed. People have been suggesting that for the last two days, and yet vote from Broward keeps coming in. Is there any reason to believe they have actually completed counting their regular early and VBM ballots (or at least completed submitting them to the state)? This FL Department of Elections website suggests they haven't: floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus (https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus) That site shows the Broward early and VBM count as still incomplete. And the website IS being continuously update, because they keep adding to the count of counties that have completed their provisional ballots. I don't know why anyone would be confident that we have any idea how many votes are still outstanding. Exactly. They haven't done VBM or provisionals yet. As Dan Smith (FL politico) noted, there are 20k overseas ballots to count as well (and another 20k yet to be received, some of which will come in before the deadline 10 days after the election date). It isn't JUST the 23-25k undervote issue. Nelson's going to be within 5,000 or so before we event get to those. Down 15,000 now with another 2,000 not transmitted (down 13,000), an undetermined amount of VBMs in Broward, another 20,000 overseas ballots (registration breakdown on Dan Smith's twitter feed), another 20,000 or so unreceived ballots (not all will be received, but the reg breakdown favors dems here as well), the 25,000 undervotes, AND the general craziness of handcounting that tends to favor democrats (because miscounts distributed evenly across all counties leads to more votes being correctly documented in bigger counties). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 09, 2018, 11:49:33 AM The cognitive dissonance that must be overcome in order to claim that voter fraud is rampant in one breath and that we should stop counting and verifying ballots in another is enormous.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 11:55:01 AM What the heck is going on with Utah? Are they going to finish counting by Thanksgiving? They'll get back to you eventually. :p I read that the Governor is super pissed at Utah County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 09, 2018, 11:55:37 AM Any idea what time the next dump from Arizona will be?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 11:57:36 AM Any idea what time the next dump from Arizona will be? 5 PM AZ time is the next Maricopa County dump. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: TheSaint250 on November 09, 2018, 12:00:00 PM Anyone know how to find Senate election results by CD?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 12:01:25 PM Anyone know how to find Senate election results by CD? Here is one: () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 12:03:39 PM Damn even the 9th swung a bit away from Trump
Not a lot and racist hicks still loved KKKorey but still. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 12:04:39 PM Whether you're a Nelson supporter or not, I don't understand why anyone is so keen to say that there's no need to verify the votes. Don't people, as a general principle, want people's valid votes to count? Oh of course verify the votes but once all the votes are verified and when Nelson's margin > 5k a recount won't flip it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 09, 2018, 12:05:12 PM Whether you're a Nelson supporter or not, I don't understand why anyone is so keen to say that there's no need to verify the votes. Don't people, as a general principle, want people's valid votes to count? “Only if they’re Republicans.” — Republicans The breakdown of democratic norms among Republicans, both in the party establishment and in the broader general population, is that complete. They have no interest in democracy as an institution whatsoever. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: TheSaint250 on November 09, 2018, 12:05:44 PM Anyone know how to find Senate election results by CD? Here is one: () Thank you! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 12:16:13 PM Whether you're a Nelson supporter or not, I don't understand why anyone is so keen to say that there's no need to verify the votes. Don't people, as a general principle, want people's valid votes to count? “Only if they’re Republicans.” — Republicans The breakdown of democratic norms among Republicans, both in the party establishment and in the broader general population, is that complete. They have no interest in democracy as an institution whatsoever. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 12:29:25 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 09, 2018, 12:39:09 PM Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE.
Brooks Brothers Riot 2 https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 09, 2018, 12:40:35 PM Better updates on the situation above here: https://twitter.com/harrisalexc
As much as Republican elected officials are to blame, the media's hard-on for calling races quickly is also to blame. It creates the notion that the race is over (and the media doesn't deal with any of the fallout from that). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 09, 2018, 12:43:44 PM Better updates on the situation above here: https://twitter.com/harrisalexc As much as Republican elected officials are to blame, the media's hard-on for calling races quickly is also to blame. It creates the notion that the race is over (and the media doesn't deal with any of the fallout from that). The Republican mob. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 12:48:52 PM It's amazing to see Republicans wanting to stop the counting of votes in Arizona, Florida and Georgia. Trump is testing out this strategy so he can use it for himself in 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 09, 2018, 12:51:36 PM Shouldn’t any state wide election be run only by the state governments themselves and not the counties.
Now you can’t change that rule for this cycle but it should be changed in the future Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 09, 2018, 12:54:30 PM It's amazing to see Republicans wanting to stop the counting of votes in Arizona, Florida and Georgia. Trump is testing out this strategy so he can use it for himself in 2020. It's kind of sad how counting all the votes is seen as "stealing" an election. While "stop the count" is an Atlas meme, it's (almost) never meant seriously. If all the votes are in after a hand recount and Scott is ahead, then Democrats will have to accept that Nelson lost. But in an election this close, it is important to count all of the votes carefully. Like in NY-22, Brindisi is currently narrowly ahead, and probably will win, but I'm certainly not against counting all of the absentees and a recount to make sure of the results. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 09, 2018, 01:01:14 PM American election laws are a joke.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fargobison on November 09, 2018, 01:05:21 PM No Republican should have any compliants about AZ, what is happening there is completely above board.
Broward county though is a complete dumpster fire of a lack of transperancy, that has to be the most incompetently run county in the country. Palm Beach also having some issues, elections shouldn't have to be this difficult to carry out. I don't think there is fraud going on, just complete and total incompetence. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 09, 2018, 01:06:02 PM American election laws are a joke. It's made even worse when politicians who know exactly how the process works pretend like it's all very shocking and unfair, and whipping their supporters into a frenzy over brazen lies. Part of me wishes that kind of behavior was treated similarly to people yelling FIRE in a crowded space. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SunSt0rm on November 09, 2018, 01:11:26 PM I can't wait if this scenario to happen in 2020 in Florida or if Arizona is the deciding state where the nation have to wait for a week to know the result and the presidency.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 09, 2018, 01:12:05 PM American election laws are a joke. It's made even worse when politicians who know exactly how the process works pretend like it's all very shocking and unfair, and whipping their supporters into a frenzy over brazen lies. Part of me wishes that kind of behavior was treated similarly to people yelling FIRE in a crowded space. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 01:15:44 PM No Republican should have any compliants about AZ, what is happening there is completely above board. Broward county though is a complete dumpster fire of a lack of transperancy, that has to be the most incompetently run county in the country. Palm Beach also having some issues, elections shouldn't have to be this difficult to carry out. I don't think there is fraud going on, just complete and total incompetence. I am a bit suspicious about Florida but yeah AZ is basically the ballots cast. Cindy mcain just said she was one of them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 01:27:17 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 09, 2018, 01:28:12 PM New England is Blue once more! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: psychprofessor on November 09, 2018, 01:30:40 PM New England is Blue once more! or golden! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 09, 2018, 01:35:16 PM I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 09, 2018, 01:42:45 PM I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs. Presumably, the argument would be that it is unconstitutional to change the congressional election process through citizen initiative, because the Constitution gives the power to regulate congressional elections to state legislatures (subject to federal legislation). This argument was rejected by the Supreme Court in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015. But the vote was 5-4, with Kennedy breaking the tie to side with the four liberals. With Kennedy replaced by Kavanaugh, the outcome could be different if the Court heard the same argument today. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 09, 2018, 01:46:45 PM Better updates on the situation above here: https://twitter.com/harrisalexc As much as Republican elected officials are to blame, the media's hard-on for calling races quickly is also to blame. It creates the notion that the race is over (and the media doesn't deal with any of the fallout from that). Seriously. 2000 should have been a lesson that perception is everything. When something as important as who's running the country is on the line, media should take a step back and say "Okay, let's be patient." The problem, of course, is that election night is essentially sports-level entertainment at this point. If you watched the CNN broadcast, they were making the early returns sound like first down on the opponent's 30. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Colombia on November 09, 2018, 01:48:42 PM I like Katie Porter and Jared Golden,great news.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 09, 2018, 01:50:56 PM I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs. That only the legislature can change the rules for federal elections, and so ballot initiative-driven changes are unconstitutional. Coincidentally, a favorable ruling for him would obliterate decades of pro-voter reforms across the country. The reason I am nervous about that is because John Roberts and his band of partisan conservative justices came within 1 vote of ruling that redistricting commissions enacted by ballot initiatives are unconstitutional, as only the legislature itself can change the rules regarding redistricting. The ruling was that 'legislature' also included the voters where ballot initiatives exist, but Roberts' dissented very strongly and I'm worried he could try to overturn even such a recent precedent now that Kennedy is gone. He only seems to care about the USSC's legitimacy in cases that don't present a threat to Republicans in elections. It shouldn't be a problem, but Roberts & friends always seem to rule favorably for Republicans when it comes to things that concern their viability in elections Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 09, 2018, 01:56:13 PM I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs. Presumably, the argument would be that it is unconstitutional to change the congressional election process through citizen initiative, because the Constitution gives the power to regulate congressional elections to state legislatures (subject to federal legislation). This argument was rejected by the Supreme Court in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015. But the vote was 5-4, with Kennedy breaking the tie to side with the four liberals. With Kennedy replaced by Kavanaugh, the outcome could be different if the Court heard the same argument today. If the Supreme Court overturns the vote and hands the seat to a whining Poliquin in defiance of Maine state law, a Democratic challenger is all but guaranteed to win with a majority vote in 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 01:57:22 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 09, 2018, 01:57:33 PM Well, in that case I guess Maine's new legislature can just pass a law reinstating it.
And if they try to abolish redistricting commissions that will also mean that California, New Jersey and Washington Democrats will also be free to gerrymander their states. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 09, 2018, 01:58:48 PM Dems, assemble and block votes at all the R locations! Watch republican heads explode! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 09, 2018, 01:59:24 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 09, 2018, 02:00:01 PM Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE. Brooks Brothers Riot 2 https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters Not blocking. Protesting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 02:05:10 PM That’s... a lot of counties Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 09, 2018, 02:05:38 PM Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE. Brooks Brothers Riot 2 https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters Not blocking. Protesting. They literally used rental trucks to block the entrances. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Baki on November 09, 2018, 02:09:58 PM Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 02:14:06 PM Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes. Do we know where these votes came from? I know there was more from Pinal. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 02:19:56 PM Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes. Do we know where these votes came from? I know there was more from Pinal. It looks to me like the most recent votes came from Mohave (~2,000 votes or so). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Devout Centrist on November 09, 2018, 02:21:32 PM Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes. Do we know where these votes came from? I know there was more from Pinal. It looks to me like the most recent votes came from Mohave (~2,000 votes or so). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 09, 2018, 02:21:44 PM Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes. Do we know where these votes came from? I know there was more from Pinal. It looks to me like the most recent votes came from Mohave (~2,000 votes or so). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 09, 2018, 02:23:01 PM American election laws are a joke. It's made even worse when politicians who know exactly how the process works pretend like it's all very shocking and unfair, and whipping their supporters into a frenzy over brazen lies. Part of me wishes that kind of behavior was treated similarly to people yelling FIRE in a crowded space. Trump doesn't care that peddling conspiracy theories, outright lying, and stoking partisan division will incite violence by disturbed individuals. We already know that, we've already seen it. Sad excuse for a person, let alone a President. Florida GOP isn't much better. In a Democracy you count all the votes. Part of the reason Florida elections are such a mess is because they've tried to make voting as onerous as possible. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 02:24:20 PM Mohave and Cochise counties.
Should be noted Cochise's vote drop was McSally +11, which is a pretty good result for Sinema seeing as how the county is 21.4% for McSally. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 09, 2018, 02:25:18 PM One county is setting out to make Broward look good: https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/update-no-porter-county-election-results-until-at-least-friday/article_91b8db58-8ab4-5cbf-b232-d78cffb812de.html
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 09, 2018, 02:27:45 PM Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE. Brooks Brothers Riot 2 https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters Not blocking. Protesting. To use a very frequent question from Trump-supporters: "What are they protesting?" Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 09, 2018, 02:27:56 PM American election laws are a joke. It's made even worse when politicians who know exactly how the process works pretend like it's all very shocking and unfair, and whipping their supporters into a frenzy over brazen lies. Part of me wishes that kind of behavior was treated similarly to people yelling FIRE in a crowded space. Trump doesn't care that peddling conspiracy theories, outright lying, and stoking partisan division will incite violence by. We already know that, we've already seen it. Sad excuse for a person, let alone a President. Oh with Trump, I know. I'm just saying, this is pretty common among other Republican politicians too. McCrory was basically accusing thousands of legitimate voters of fraud after his loss, when ti came down to the wire. Now Scott is stirring the pot himself, despite knowing exactly how close elections play out in Florida (blocking BOE entrances? really?). And Arizona is arguably one of the worst of these examples, because they all should know that they count ballots even after election day due to the volume of mail. Yet here we are, people acting !!shocked!! that there are still votes to count. It's all so very pathetic and they should be ashamed of themselves. Just let the process play out instead of whining and delegitimizing our institutions for absolutely nothing. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 02:28:54 PM So Cochise County dropped 4021 votes. It was McSally +11. They should be comepletly done now.
Mohave county dropped about 2000 votes. Was a McSally +39 batch. They probably have about 6000 votes left to count. I'm getting all this info from @DrRyanLove on twitter f.y.i. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 09, 2018, 02:30:56 PM Mohave and Cochise counties. Should be noted Cochise's vote drop was McSally +11, which is a pretty good result for Sinema seeing as how the county is 21.4% for McSally. Yeah, McSally needed a much bigger margin among Cochise and Mohave. I think after today’s Maricopa update at 7, the networks can go ahead and project Sinema as the Apparent Winner Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 02:32:37 PM Mohave, for reference, was R+51 in 2016
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 09, 2018, 02:33:32 PM So Cochise County dropped 4021 votes. It was McSally +11. They should be comepletly done now. Mohave county dropped about 2000 votes. Was a McSally +39 batch. They probably have about 6000 votes left to count. I'm getting all this info from @DrRyanLove on twitter f.y.i. I don't see this on the twitter feed, can you post a link to the source? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 02:34:09 PM So Cochise County dropped 4021 votes. It was McSally +11. They should be comepletly done now. Mohave county dropped about 2000 votes. Was a McSally +39 batch. They probably have about 6000 votes left to count. I'm getting all this info from @DrRyanLove on twitter f.y.i. I don't see this on the twitter feed, can you post a link to the source? https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/with_replies Edit: Sorry, I thought i couldnt post links. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 02:34:32 PM One county is setting out to make Broward look good: https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/update-no-porter-county-election-results-until-at-least-friday/article_91b8db58-8ab4-5cbf-b232-d78cffb812de.html I read a twitter thread from someone who volunteered as a poll worker there. She said it was a massive s-show. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 02:34:50 PM So Cochise County dropped 4021 votes. It was McSally +11. They should be comepletly done now. Mohave county dropped about 2000 votes. Was a McSally +39 batch. They probably have about 6000 votes left to count. I'm getting all this info from @DrRyanLove on twitter f.y.i. I don't see this on the twitter feed, can you post a link to the source? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 02:35:40 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 09, 2018, 02:36:59 PM That's a very bad sign for McSally, especially since the early vote in AZ-09 actually had a Dem registration advantage iirc. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 02:37:38 PM Yeah, they're probably going to project Sinema the winner tonight. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 02:38:24 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 02:38:42 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 02:39:37 PM None of this looks good for McSally. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 02:42:23 PM As I noted in the other thread, the argument that tonight's Maricopa's drop will be R+10 seems pretty thin. It very well might be, but just because in person election day votes were R+10 doesnt mean early votes dropped off on election day will be.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GP270watch on November 09, 2018, 02:42:50 PM It's all so very pathetic and they should be ashamed of themselves. Just let the process play out instead of whining and delegitimizing our institutions for absolutely nothing. It's very shameful, I agree. Sadly you can't shame these people. You can only try and educate the Public to take their civic duties seriously and oppose this nonsense. Most reasonable people agree with one person, one vote. Most agree that every vote should be counted. That the voting process should be fair and easy and that elections should be organized and above reproach. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: psychprofessor on November 09, 2018, 02:44:11 PM None of this looks good for McSally. Let's get this fu#king thing done (M. McSally, 2017) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 02:48:57 PM I feel like you can separate these counties into 3 categories: Sinema Counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima & Santa Cruz): 68,600 Toss Up Counties (Maricopa & Navajo): 349,000 McSally Counties (Cochise, Gila, La Paz, Mohave, Pinal, Yavapai & Yuma): 38,543 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 02:50:57 PM Also:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 02:54:11 PM No voter fraud says the Florida Department of Elections:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 02:57:06 PM The last of Santa Cruz Country dropped, Sinema's lead bumped up a bit to +8,936.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 03:02:05 PM If McSally loses, is Ducey going to appoint her to the other seat?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: _ on November 09, 2018, 03:02:49 PM Worth noting that AZ-9 is a high turnout white liberal district. That could mean the Secretary of State race is not decided yet as this is Katie Hobbs’ home seat too I think an argument is to be made that the SOS race is the more up-in-the-air race at this point. Which matters because it would disincentivize Ducey from going for Senate in 2020 if Hobbs is SOS I mean both candidates in the SOS race haven't given up/declared victory, so I do think they recognize it's still a race as well. Hopefully Maricopa goes big for them and they pull it out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 03:05:21 PM The last of Santa Cruz Country dropped, Sinema's lead bumped up a bit to +8,936. This continues the trend of Sinema doing better in these late arriving counts than she did through election day. She received 69.2% of the vote for this last dump, vs. 67.9% of the Santa Cruz vote counted prior to it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Kentuckian on November 09, 2018, 03:05:49 PM Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE. Brooks Brothers Riot 2 https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters So much for the tolerant Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 03:11:46 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 03:15:32 PM McSally gained 857 votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 03:15:34 PM 3,499 votes. Sinema received 38.4% of these votes, vs. 36.9% of the vote counted in this county before them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cg41386 on November 09, 2018, 03:18:15 PM If McSally loses, is Ducey going to appoint her to the other seat? He already appointed Jon Kyl a couple months ago. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 03:20:02 PM If McSally loses, is Ducey going to appoint her to the other seat? He already appointed Jon Kyl a couple months ago. I thought Kyl is going to step down in the senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 09, 2018, 03:20:06 PM Trump and FLorida R's are highly annoying ...
It's pretty clear that what's left to count are absentee ballots that were postmarked by election day and returned after election day, military ballots from overseas which come in now and provisional ballots. Those are all legal and correct ballots. Nobody in Broward or elsewhere is opening the lockbox with hidden Al Gore votes from 2000 to turn them into Nelson/Gillum votes ... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 09, 2018, 03:20:50 PM If McSally loses, is Ducey going to appoint her to the other seat? He already appointed Jon Kyl a couple months ago. It's been speculated that Kyl might resign after the end of the year, though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cg41386 on November 09, 2018, 03:22:32 PM If McSally loses, is Ducey going to appoint her to the other seat? He already appointed Jon Kyl a couple months ago. I thought Kyl is going to step down in the senate. He hasn’t made a final decision except he definitely won’t be seeking the seat in the special election in 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 03:30:13 PM I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs. That only the legislature can change the rules for federal elections, and so ballot initiative-driven changes are unconstitutional. Coincidentally, a favorable ruling for him would obliterate decades of pro-voter reforms across the country. The reason I am nervous about that is because John Roberts and his band of partisan conservative justices came within 1 vote of ruling that redistricting commissions enacted by ballot initiatives are unconstitutional, as only the legislature itself can change the rules regarding redistricting. The ruling was that 'legislature' also included the voters where ballot initiatives exist, but Roberts' dissented very strongly and I'm worried he could try to overturn even such a recent precedent now that Kennedy is gone. He only seems to care about the USSC's legitimacy in cases that don't present a threat to Republicans in elections. It shouldn't be a problem, but Roberts & friends always seem to rule favorably for Republicans when it comes to things that concern their viability in elections Not to mention that band of thugs in Black robes don't seem to give a flying s*** about stare decius Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 03:34:06 PM I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs. That only the legislature can change the rules for federal elections, and so ballot initiative-driven changes are unconstitutional. Coincidentally, a favorable ruling for him would obliterate decades of pro-voter reforms across the country. The reason I am nervous about that is because John Roberts and his band of partisan conservative justices came within 1 vote of ruling that redistricting commissions enacted by ballot initiatives are unconstitutional, as only the legislature itself can change the rules regarding redistricting. The ruling was that 'legislature' also included the voters where ballot initiatives exist, but Roberts' dissented very strongly and I'm worried he could try to overturn even such a recent precedent now that Kennedy is gone. He only seems to care about the USSC's legitimacy in cases that don't present a threat to Republicans in elections. It shouldn't be a problem, but Roberts & friends always seem to rule favorably for Republicans when it comes to things that concern their viability in elections Not to mention that band of thugs in Black robes don't seem to give a flying s*** about stare decius There has been some talk about Roberts not overturning decisions made under his court, regardless of his view on it. I'll believe it when I see it, but that's been the talk. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 03:34:40 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pollster on November 09, 2018, 03:37:30 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 03:38:08 PM I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs. That only the legislature can change the rules for federal elections, and so ballot initiative-driven changes are unconstitutional. Coincidentally, a favorable ruling for him would obliterate decades of pro-voter reforms across the country. The reason I am nervous about that is because John Roberts and his band of partisan conservative justices came within 1 vote of ruling that redistricting commissions enacted by ballot initiatives are unconstitutional, as only the legislature itself can change the rules regarding redistricting. The ruling was that 'legislature' also included the voters where ballot initiatives exist, but Roberts' dissented very strongly and I'm worried he could try to overturn even such a recent precedent now that Kennedy is gone. He only seems to care about the USSC's legitimacy in cases that don't present a threat to Republicans in elections. It shouldn't be a problem, but Roberts & friends always seem to rule favorably for Republicans when it comes to things that concern their viability in elections Not to mention that band of thugs in Black robes don't seem to give a flying s*** about stare decius There has been some talk about Roberts not overturning decisions made under his court, regardless of his view on it. I'll believe it when I see it, but that's been the talk. I feel the same. Too early to say. I really hope he walks the walk. The fact that he was willing to uphold Obamacare despite pressure not to is a good sign, but.... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 03:38:51 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 03:39:04 PM Oh, I'm too lazy to link right now on my phone, but Trump also just suggested possible Federal intervention in the Florida election count shading, and I quote, there's a lot of crooked things going on down there.
Who would know better, Don? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 09, 2018, 03:39:43 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? Clueless s**thead, as per usual. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 03:41:01 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020. Plus he’s revealing that the RNC believes McSally isn’t going to win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 09, 2018, 03:41:47 PM Signatures are not matching all the time. In every election.
About 1% of all postal ballots are thrown out in every election, in the US, in Austria because of that reason. Or because some voters don't sign the postal ballot at all. Someone please tell Trump that this is no fraud or corruption. It's simply lazy or dumb voters. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 03:44:00 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? Clueless s**thead, as per usual. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 09, 2018, 03:49:02 PM The Salt Lake Tribune has basically written Love's obituary and predicts that the race will be called later today: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/08/rep-mia-love-could-still/
I almost feel bad that only black GOP congresswoman loses when most of her white male colleagues, most of whom are more ideologically reprehensible than her, get to have another term... but obviously I would much rather have McAdams in Congress, so this is a pleasantly surprising result. I knew it would be very close, but I would assigned it a Tilt R rating before a Tilt D one. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 03:50:09 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020. More than likely, which is why if a democrat wins, it needs to be convincingly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 03:52:35 PM The Salt Lake Tribune has basically written Love's obituary and predicts that the race will be called later today: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/08/rep-mia-love-could-still/ I almost feel bad that only black GOP congresswoman loses when most of her white male colleagues, most of whom are more ideologically reprehensible than her, get to have another term... but obviously I would much rather have McAdams in Congress, so this is a pleasantly surprising result. I knew it would be very close, but I would assigned it a Tilt R rating before Tilt D one. The number of Republican women in the House for the next term is going to be very low. Like around 15. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 03:54:01 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020. More than likely, which is why if a democrat wins, it needs to be convincingly. All the more important that we have Democratic governors in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 09, 2018, 03:54:32 PM Any word on the AZ state legislative races that were said to potentially flip?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 03:57:58 PM Any word on the AZ state legislative races that were said to potentially flip? Last I saw there was one Senate race within 800 votes Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 04:07:35 PM 538 moving Arizona to LEAN D
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 04:10:22 PM How can you argue that this should be counted? Do people not know you bubble it in? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 09, 2018, 04:10:38 PM How can you argue that this should be counted? Given the vote that allowed GOP to retain the VA CoD... If that was counted, this should be too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 09, 2018, 04:11:11 PM That vote should be invalid and would be even in states like Oregon Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 04:12:15 PM How can you argue that this should be counted? The Dem is circled and Scott's name is crossed out. That being said, I can see this getting counted. My Lord people just follow the instructions! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 04:12:16 PM That vote should be invalid and would be even in states like Oregon Then again we got away with that in virginia and saved us from a dem HOD. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 09, 2018, 04:12:16 PM How can you argue that this should be counted? Given the vote that allowed GOP to retain the VA CoD... If that was counted, this should be too. () Hypocrites. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 09, 2018, 04:12:47 PM That vote should be invalid and would be even in states like Oregon Except in Virginia apparently. Hmmm, I have no idea why that vote "definitely should be counted" while this one "should be invalid". Totally not just because one was a GOP vote and one was a Dem one Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 09, 2018, 04:12:57 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 04:13:17 PM How can you argue that this should be counted? The Dem is circled and Scott's name is crossed out. That being said, I can see this getting counted. My Lord people just follow the instructions! Thats the problem with filling these out in pen. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 09, 2018, 04:14:22 PM How can you argue that this should be counted? The Dem is circled and Scott's name is crossed out. That being said, I can see this getting counted. My Lord people just follow the instructions! Thats the problem with filling these out in pen. Careful, if you move against pens voters will be mandated to bring No. 2 pencils. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 04:14:24 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? This is a few notches from “Normies get out reeeeeeeee!!!” Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 04:14:38 PM Apache dropped. Sinema expands lead by 586-
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on November 09, 2018, 04:16:59 PM How can you argue that this should be counted? Given the vote that allowed GOP to retain the VA CoD... If that was counted, this should be too. () Hypocrites. I think in Oregon that would count if the name was also crossed out Horizontally. But the FL one would not be accepted as in that one it looks like the voter crossed out both the candidates and the new vote wasnt bubbled in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 09, 2018, 04:22:42 PM Filling in a bubble isn't rocket science people.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 04:23:24 PM How can you argue that this should be counted? Given the vote that allowed GOP to retain the VA CoD... If that was counted, this should be too. () Hypocrites. I think in Oregon that would count if the name was also crossed out Horizontally. But the FL one would not be accepted as in that one it looks like the voter crossed out both the candidates and the new vote wasnt bubbled in. I mean if both names are bubbled in the vote should be tossed, period. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 09, 2018, 04:24:14 PM Apache dropped. Sinema expands lead by 586- Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Coldstream on November 09, 2018, 04:25:55 PM How long is it likely to be before the outstanding California races get called?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: I Will Not Be Wrong on November 09, 2018, 04:28:20 PM So is there a good chance for Nelson?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 04:29:46 PM So is there a good chance for Nelson? Woudnt go that far. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 09, 2018, 04:30:03 PM So is there a good chance for Nelson? Very, very slim unless there's something we don't know. Scott's freak out seems very unusual IMO. I don't think there are enough votes left. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 09, 2018, 04:30:13 PM How long is it likely to be before the outstanding California races get called? CA has about 4.5 million outstanding ballots left to count until mid-December, when the results are certified. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 09, 2018, 04:30:37 PM So is there a good chance for Nelson? No, it's a long shot (but not a no shot, at least not yet). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 04:33:07 PM The Salt Lake Tribune has basically written Love's obituary and predicts that the race will be called later today: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/08/rep-mia-love-could-still/ I almost feel bad that only black GOP congresswoman loses when most of her white male colleagues, most of whom are more ideologically reprehensible than her, get to have another term... but obviously I would much rather have McAdams in Congress, so this is a pleasantly surprising result. I knew it would be very close, but I would assigned it a Tilt R rating before a Tilt D one. My only comment is when I was in Elko about a month ago on business, we picked up Utah TV and the number of anti Ben McAdams ads being run was staggering Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 09, 2018, 04:36:21 PM Apache dropped. Sinema expands lead by 586- Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 04:42:06 PM Someone on here mentioned how there are a few portions of Apache that are very republican, wouldnt be that surprising if we got a chunk of that in this latest update.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: new_patomic on November 09, 2018, 04:43:59 PM So is there a good chance for Nelson? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 04:45:12 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 09, 2018, 04:45:46 PM Hopefully we can get a solid number on ballots in Broward County.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 04:46:18 PM So is there a good chance for Nelson? But what's the chance of that? As noted the under votes, or possible under counts, are very highly concentrated geographically. While I'm probably just Wishing on a Star here, then at least slightly indicates it may be a machine error. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skunk on November 09, 2018, 04:48:35 PM Scott will win since God hates our state. Hopefully DeSantis slashes all remaining education/social services to hell in order to give people here a full taste of what they voted for Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 04:48:56 PM Hopefully we can get a solid number on ballots in Broward County. A lot of the rhetoric from Scott, Trump and other Republicans have been horrific, but I agree that Broward County has been thoroughly inept and incompetent with this whole process. Brenda Snipes (Jeb appointee) deserves to lose her job, but in many ways this looks to be a county culture issue as the last person was removed for being awful too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 04:50:27 PM I have to say, the fact they couldn’t even provide *estimates* earlier was ridiculous Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 04:50:46 PM Scott will win since God hates our state. Hopefully DeSantis slashes all remaining education/social services to hell in order to give people here a full taste of what they voted for I saw a commercial for Rick Scott with an old woman telling her daughter and grand daughter how Bill Nelson is a Washington insider who will vote to cut her medicare. Would not surprise me if alot of old people here actually believe that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 04:55:41 PM Almost no change, Simena up 8,619 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 04:57:30 PM Almost no change, Simena up 8,619 Netting so few out of there is catastrophic for McSally. She’d better hope for weak Pima and Maricopa numbers for Sinema now Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 04:57:44 PM Im not gonna get into hyperbole or anything, but that Pinal county batch is not a good sign for McSally.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 04:59:10 PM Settlement was reached between Republicans and Democrats over the signature issue:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 04:59:52 PM Almost no change, Simena up 8,619 Pinal County is supposed to be the biggest county that favors McSally. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cashew on November 09, 2018, 05:01:15 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020. He knows exactly what he's doing. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 09, 2018, 05:04:03 PM I feel like we can call this once Maricopa dumps at 7, Pima should pad her lead before it a bit.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wesmoorenerd on November 09, 2018, 05:04:26 PM PredictIt updates in the House (Dem improvement in red, Pub improvement in blue)
California 10 (Harder-Denham) 90-11 or 97-13 California 25 (Hill-Knight) 99-1 California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 72-43 California 45 (Porter-Walters) 83-20 or 81-19 California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 99-1 Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 12-88 Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 90-11 New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 96-4 New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 87-13 New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 2-98 North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 1-90 Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 4-96 Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 92-10 Whole lotta noise here. The only real shifts came in CA-39 and CA-45 (where people literally never learn), GA-07, ME-02, NY-22, and UT-04 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 05:05:58 PM I feel like we can call this once Maricopa dumps at 7, Pima should pad her lead before it a bit. I dont think we're getting a Pima update tonight. I think they said their next update is tuesday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: new_patomic on November 09, 2018, 05:06:14 PM So is there a good chance for Nelson? But what's the chance of that? As noted the under votes, or possible under counts, are very highly concentrated geographically. While I'm probably just Wishing on a Star here, then at least slightly indicates it may be a machine error. Unfortunately it's more than likely than not we lose the FL-Sen because some people didn't look at their entire ballot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 09, 2018, 05:08:32 PM PredictIt updates in the House (Dem improvement in red, Pub improvement in blue) California 10 (Harder-Denham) 90-11 or 97-13 California 25 (Hill-Knight) 99-1 California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 72-43 California 45 (Porter-Walters) 83-20 or 81-19 California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 99-1 Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 12-88 Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 90-11 New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 96-4 New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 87-13 New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 2-98 North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 1-90 Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 4-96 Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 92-10 Whole lotta noise here. The only real shifts came in CA-39 and CA-45 (where people literally never learn), GA-07, ME-02, NY-22, and UT-04 Colored TX-23 wrong, might confuse some people. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 09, 2018, 05:14:44 PM Looks like Democrats will have a 45-8 majority in the CA congressional delegation and an 11-1 majority in the NJ congressional delegation. Pretty impressive consolidation of federal representation in these two states.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: new_patomic on November 09, 2018, 05:15:18 PM Judges Order Palm Beach, Broward Counties To Allow Review Of Ballots
(https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/judges-palm-beach-broward-order-counties-allow-review-ballots) Looks like Palm Beach County is going to be ordered to reveal the names of those who voted provisionally. Not that it might even matter because of the deadline. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wesmoorenerd on November 09, 2018, 05:19:08 PM PredictIt updates in the House (Dem improvement in red, Pub improvement in blue) California 10 (Harder-Denham) 90-11 or 97-13 California 25 (Hill-Knight) 99-1 California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 72-43 California 45 (Porter-Walters) 83-20 or 81-19 California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 99-1 Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 12-88 Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 90-11 New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 96-4 New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 87-13 New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 2-98 North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 1-90 Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 4-96 Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 92-10 Whole lotta noise here. The only real shifts came in CA-39 and CA-45 (where people literally never learn), GA-07, ME-02, NY-22, and UT-04 Colored TX-23 wrong, might confuse some people. I didn't, actually. Ortiz Jones' chances improved a little bit since a few days ago, although it's just noise. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 09, 2018, 05:22:19 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020. He knows exactly what he's doing. And you know he’ll call Sinema “the illegitimate Senator from Arizona” every time they clash over the next two years, too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 05:24:37 PM Looks like Democrats will have a 45-8 majority in the CA congressional delegation and an 11-1 majority in the NJ congressional delegation. Pretty impressive consolidation of federal representation in these two states. Probably going 46-7 in 2020. Im honestly shocked with the burb stomping that Hunter didn't go down or atleast come closer and that Mcmurray came closer than najjar most likely. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 05:27:30 PM Santa Cruz posted 906 votes about 30 minutes ago. Sinema won 74.8% of them.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 09, 2018, 05:29:25 PM Trump calling for a new election in Arizona? He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020. He knows exactly what he's doing. And you know he’ll call Sinema “the illegitimate Senator from Arizona” every time they clash over the next two years, too. That’s immaterial. What matters is his rants might inspire one of his cultists to take Sinema out She need not worry about that. Only thing she needs to worry about is winning this thing. If she does, she will instantly become among the most favorite dems in DC, and she will get all the funding she needs for any security. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 09, 2018, 05:33:54 PM Looks like Democrats will have a 45-8 majority in the CA congressional delegation and an 11-1 majority in the NJ congressional delegation. Pretty impressive consolidation of federal representation in these two states. Probably going 46-7 in 2020. Im honestly shocked with the burb stomping that Hunter didn't go down or atleast come closer and that Mcmurray came closer than najjar most likely. The only R who might lose in CA in 2020 is Valadao. Hunter will probably be forced out at some point (whether a retirement in 2020, failing to make the top two in the primary to an R challenger or resignation before then), but he won’t lose reelection to a Democrat. That district is not there yet for the Dems. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 05:39:49 PM Looks like Democrats will have a 45-8 majority in the CA congressional delegation and an 11-1 majority in the NJ congressional delegation. Pretty impressive consolidation of federal representation in these two states. Probably going 46-7 in 2020. Im honestly shocked with the burb stomping that Hunter didn't go down or atleast come closer and that Mcmurray came closer than najjar most likely. The only R who might lose in CA in 2020 is Valadao. Hunter will probably be forced out at some point (whether a retirement in 2020, failing to make the top two in the primary to an R challenger or resignation before then), but he won’t lose reelection to a Democrat. That district is not there yet for the Dems. I meant Valadao only. But I expected Hunter to lose when I saw the early house results Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 09, 2018, 05:46:22 PM Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 09, 2018, 05:46:46 PM When does California start updating their results? I've been trying to follow CA-10, but it doesn't seem like the results have changed since election night.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 05:49:04 PM When does California start updating their results? I've been trying to follow CA-10, but it doesn't seem like the results have changed since election night. It varies, I know there is going to be another Orange County update at 5pm PT. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 09, 2018, 05:49:52 PM Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again. Yeah, McSally's close margin definitly puts her on the shortlist if Kyl decides to retire during lame duck like some rumors have. Might make the AZ delegation a little weird. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 05:55:56 PM Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again. There's a decent chance that both McSally and Sinema are senators after this year. Some folks been saying that if McSally loses, Senator Kyl will resign so that Governor Ducey can pick McSally as his replacement. I heard that a while ago, but it wouldn't surprise me. I don't think McSally would fare well in a 2020 campaign though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 05:56:16 PM Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again. McSally has no excuse for losing though when R’s are winning Gov by 16% and the GCB in the state by 2%. I don’t think that her underperformance against the pink tutu Prada socialist will win her favors from the R horde is there anyone else besides Ducey himself who can run? Sweichkert -Ethics Higgs-IDk he doesn't seem like the type to go up. Lesko- Horrible candidate barely beat Tiperneni by 4 in the special election even with massive R advantage. Gosar- Ah the family ads are gonna be great. He is gonna get rekt as well. Idk about the rest of Arizona's bench. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: jdk on November 09, 2018, 05:57:12 PM Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on November 09, 2018, 05:59:15 PM Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again. There's a decent chance that both McSally and Sinema are senators after this year. Some folks been saying that if McSally loses, Senator Kyl will resign so that Governor Ducey can pick McSally as his replacement. I heard that a while ago, but it wouldn't surprise me. I don't think McSally would fare well in a 2020 campaign though. I agree with this, and I don't think the GOP will view her as a particularly strong candidate either if she ends up losing this race, which is almost certain at this point. Sinema wasn't a weak candidate but wasn't exactly some god-tier recruit either, so if 2020 has a comparable national environment to 2018 and a decent Democratic presidential nominee, someone like Stanton should probably be favored. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 06:03:39 PM Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again. Ann Kirkpatrick vs Chemtrail Kelli Let's go! popcorn Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 09, 2018, 06:06:38 PM Oh BTW to any Mod reading, can you create a sticky thread for the Florida recount. The thread is already huge and half the chatter is Florida related because there is no clear place to talk about the crisis there.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 06:11:36 PM Arizona rep bench sucks congresionally coz they hold 0/3 moderate districts.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 06:13:13 PM Oh BTW to any Mod reading, can you create a sticky thread for the Florida recount. The thread is already huge and half the chatter is Florida related because there is no clear place to talk about the crisis there. Here is the discussion thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306430.0 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 06:22:05 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 09, 2018, 06:24:54 PM Sinema now up 9,101 statewide. I don't think Maricopa's next update will be friendly to McSally. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 06:30:36 PM Sinema did very well in that last Yuma update. She got almost 60% of the votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 09, 2018, 06:32:30 PM I don’t think the remaining votes in Maricopa will be as friendly for McSally as many expect. Advantage Sinema, I’d give her a 70% chance of winning at this point.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on November 09, 2018, 06:34:22 PM Why Angela, WHY.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 09, 2018, 06:35:40 PM Why Angela, WHY. ? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 09, 2018, 06:36:02 PM Why Angela, WHY. Simple. Republican plant. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 06:37:39 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chief Justice Keef on November 09, 2018, 06:38:23 PM Why Angela, WHY. Simple. Republican plant. If she was a Republican plant she wouldn't have dropped out before the election. Green Party people are just naive, that's all. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 06:41:22 PM Sinema won 70.8% of these votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 06:42:30 PM Sinema did very well in that last Yuma update. She got almost 60% of the votes. And McSally is 53-44 in Yuma 0_0 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 06:44:12 PM Sinema did very well in that last Yuma update. She got almost 60% of the votes. And McSally is 53-44 in Yuma 0_0 With the exception of one Apache update so far, Sinema has outperformed in all county vote drops today. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 09, 2018, 06:46:14 PM Sinema did very well in that last Yuma update. She got almost 60% of the votes. And McSally is 53-44 in Yuma 0_0 Romney won this county 56-43-1 in 2012. Trump won it 48-47-5. So, while McSally outperformed Trump here, it wasn't by much. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 06:51:33 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 09, 2018, 06:53:33 PM Funny how it's only unfair when Trump doesn't get what he wants. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 09, 2018, 06:53:40 PM This is supposed to be the pro-McSally motherload, right?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 06:53:46 PM btw how many of the largest 20 counties will vote for Trump in 2020?
It looks like 0 will after maricopa is probably Tilt D and Tarrant is tossup/Tilt R Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 06:55:04 PM This is supposed to be the pro-McSally motherload, right? Define “mother lode” btw how many of the largest 20 counties will vote for Trump in 2020? It looks like 0 will after maricopa is probably Tilt D and Tarrant is tossup/Tilt R Yeah probably. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: new_patomic on November 09, 2018, 06:57:28 PM This is supposed to be the pro-McSally motherload, right? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 07:00:38 PM This is supposedly the late-early votes that favor McSally.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 09, 2018, 07:01:12 PM Sinema leads by 21.1k now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 07:01:40 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 09, 2018, 07:01:49 PM BOOM SINEMA UP 21k
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 07:03:07 PM Senator-elect Sinema.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 09, 2018, 07:04:09 PM Goodbye!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 07:04:10 PM Senator-elect Sinema. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: rob in cal on November 09, 2018, 07:05:52 PM Don't know if this has already been mentioned, but whats the conventional wisdom on the Maine congressional elections, and the impact of Australian style ranked choice voting. Did it help the independent candidates get more votes because their supporters knew they could still vote for a Dem or GOP candidate as well?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 09, 2018, 07:06:09 PM Looks like Democrats took the lead for one of the Corporation Commission (read: public utilities/service commission) spots too. That would turn it from a 5-0 R to a 4-1 R commission.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 07:06:10 PM How big of a lead would McSally need for comeback?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: American2020 on November 09, 2018, 07:06:36 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pyro on November 09, 2018, 07:08:14 PM And there goes the battle! Sinema wins!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 09, 2018, 07:08:26 PM OK, this is getting 10 million kinds of ridiculous now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 07:08:54 PM Republican lead in the SoS race has stunk to 9,560.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 09, 2018, 07:09:28 PM Don't know if this has already been mentioned, but whats the conventional wisdom on the Maine congressional elections, and the impact of Australian style ranked choice voting. Did it help the independent candidates get more votes because their supporters knew they could still vote for a Dem or GOP candidate as well? I've seen it suggested that it would indeed help the independent candidates for the reason you mentioned. In the actual results, Bond got 5.8% and Hoar 2.4%. Those seem like pretty good numbers, although Maine has a history of independents doing well, so who knows if these are really that much better than they would have been without RCV. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 09, 2018, 07:10:04 PM OK, this is getting 10 million kinds of ridiculous now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 07:10:47 PM This is a farce Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 09, 2018, 07:13:25 PM This is a farce If this was a novel, it would have been rejected by the editors as too ridiculous to be believable. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 09, 2018, 07:13:26 PM OK, this is getting 10 million kinds of ridiculous now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 07:14:17 PM There is a separate thread for Florida:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306430.0 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 09, 2018, 07:14:52 PM There is a separate thread for Florida: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306430.0 I’m aware. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 09, 2018, 07:18:55 PM I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs. Presumably, the argument would be that it is unconstitutional to change the congressional election process through citizen initiative, because the Constitution gives the power to regulate congressional elections to state legislatures (subject to federal legislation). This argument was rejected by the Supreme Court in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015. But the vote was 5-4, with Kennedy breaking the tie to side with the four liberals. With Kennedy replaced by Kavanaugh, the outcome could be different if the Court heard the same argument today. While this may be grounds to sue, I cannot see how it can have any remedy other than ordering a completely new election under the old rules. This election was run based on a certain law. Had the old law and simple plurality rule been in place, both candidates and voters would have behaved differently: in particular, arguably, many of the voters who went for minor candidates on their first choice would have voted for one of the two major candidates (any amount of political scientists would testify to that as well-established fact: it is, in fact, well-established). Ordering the count to be done based on the old (plurality) rule would not help establish the result that would have obtained had that rule been in place from the beginning. So, the only remedy available is to annul the election and rerun it. If a court orders simply not counting second preferences, it would not be materially different from ordering one of the candidates to be declared elected without any vote whatsoever. Indeed, no plurality vote has been held - so it is not possible to establish its likely outcome without actually organizing it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 07:22:30 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 07:26:54 PM Again, I dont get the logic. Why do late-early votes have to be republican leaning? Just seems like a massive assumption by McSally's team.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 09, 2018, 07:31:22 PM I'm comforted to see that we may pickup Arizona after all. I have my fingers crossed. If Sinema can win and Nelson can somehow maintain his seat by some miracle, I intend to apologize to the forum for my sourpuss antics as of late because this midterm will have turned out to be a strong net positive after all. I'll feel vindicated for reasons beyond Senate control too, because this result would resemble my exact Senate prediction for the 2018 Senate.
I'm not going to apologize to Florida though. It may end up not being synonymous with doom anymore, if this happens, but the fact that Nelson may overcome a loss of a few thousand votes due to a recount kind of has negative ramifications too. This would mean that if a recount had been allowed in 2000, we most likely would have had President Gore and this country, as well as the world, probably would have been better off being spared eight years of the Bush administration! Earth 2 can probably attest to this. That kind of upsets me. Something so simple could have prevented the future that we are currently living in today. Florida needs to stop doing this to itself, its voters, and the country at large. Stop "monkeying" things up. Get your s*** together in regards to how you handle your elections! Maybe those ex-felons will make the difference. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: J. J. on November 09, 2018, 07:34:06 PM 95k more like what we saw tonight from Maricopa would single handedly erase the deficit in the SOS race without even factoring in the rest of the D heavy Pima votes. Which has huge consequences in limiting Ducey climbing to the Senate and also getting a D in control of elections in 2020 Maricopa has 226,000 ballots uncounted. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 09, 2018, 07:35:16 PM 95k more like what we saw tonight from Maricopa would single handedly erase the deficit in the SOS race without even factoring in the rest of the D heavy Pima votes. Which has huge consequences in limiting Ducey climbing to the Senate and also getting a D in control of elections in 2020 Maricopa has 226,000 ballots uncounted. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 07:36:45 PM 95k more like what we saw tonight from Maricopa would single handedly erase the deficit in the SOS race without even factoring in the rest of the D heavy Pima votes. Which has huge consequences in limiting Ducey climbing to the Senate and also getting a D in control of elections in 2020 Maricopa has 226,000 ballots uncounted. Nate Silver said there are quite a few ballots left from AZ-09. That was from this morning though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 09, 2018, 07:38:09 PM Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 07:40:31 PM Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days. Yes, in person election day votes. But I'm not sure that means late early votes delivered on election day are identical in party i.d. McSally's camp seems to think that, but I'm not sure its sound logic. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 09, 2018, 07:42:44 PM Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days. Yes, in person election day votes. But I'm not sure that means late early votes delivered on election day are identical in party i.d. McSally's camp seems to think that, but I'm not sure its sound logic. Even if they were she wouldn’t be picking up enough. She needs them to be better than in person Election Day. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 07:43:46 PM Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days. Hang on, If Sinema leads by double digits in the “even” ones, then she should be leading in the R+10 ones too, right? She won this even "bucket" by 15, so yeah, Sinema might end up ahead in an R+10. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 09, 2018, 07:49:03 PM When are we getting the next batch of Maricopa votes? Are they dumping all 226K at once, or no?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 09, 2018, 07:53:29 PM When are we getting the next batch of Maricopa votes? Are they dumping all 226K at once, or no? We are getting another dump tomorrow at 5. I believe after tonight, there are two more bucket drops left. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: American2020 on November 09, 2018, 07:54:39 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 09, 2018, 08:08:01 PM ()
() () () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 09, 2018, 08:12:06 PM Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them.
AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 08:22:03 PM CA-10 just flipped!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 08:22:33 PM Can someone explain why the networks haven't called NY-22 for Brindisi yet?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 08:23:34 PM Can someone explain why the networks haven't called NY-22 for Brindisi yet? Probably going to go to a recount after there was a tabulation error. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 09, 2018, 08:23:56 PM Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them. AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point. CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now. Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 09, 2018, 08:24:17 PM RIP Denham, worthless career in tatters. HP.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 09, 2018, 08:30:16 PM Would be hilarious if Kim ended up losing, I've seen countless tweets congratulating her for being the first Korean women to be elected in Congress even one saying she was the first Asian women lol. Usual whining from cons 'why is the media ignoring her!!'.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 08:30:50 PM Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them. AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point. CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now. Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift. () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 09, 2018, 08:31:00 PM Kim is almost certainly going to lose.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 09, 2018, 08:31:29 PM Can someone explain why the networks haven't called NY-22 for Brindisi yet? Probably going to go to a recount after there was a tabulation error. So it's okay when a Republican like Tenney does it, but Nelson doing the same thing in a state where this happens all too often is theft? That's Republican logic for you. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 09, 2018, 08:32:20 PM Kim is almost certainly going to lose. Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits? Fun times. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 09, 2018, 08:34:40 PM Filling in a bubble isn't rocket science people. We're talking about American voters here. Don't be too hard on them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 09, 2018, 08:36:46 PM Filling in a bubble isn't rocket science people. We're talking about American voters here. Don't be too hard on them. Yeah, and we need to grade Florida in particular on a curve. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 09, 2018, 08:40:33 PM Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them. AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point. CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now. Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift. () Good! The Northern Cal house map will looks so much more aesthetic with CA-10 as a dem seat! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 09, 2018, 08:42:58 PM So first CA flip post-election night? Woot!
Hopefully Porter is next. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 09, 2018, 08:47:20 PM I'm just going to assume all the media outlets have been ordered by the Kremlin to not call this for Rouda. He's obviously won.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 08:49:15 PM It's amazing how Republicans are slowly going extinct in California.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 09, 2018, 08:54:56 PM It's amazing how Republicans are slowly going extinct in California. Yep, Democrats can potentially win >70% of the seats in both the state senate and state house this year. That's nuts. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 09, 2018, 08:57:01 PM It's amazing how Republicans are slowly going extinct in California. It's a beautiful sight. Now, if only the rest of the country could follow suit. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 09, 2018, 08:58:16 PM Mimi Walters is only up by 2,020 votes at the moment. 103,975-101,955.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 09, 2018, 09:01:19 PM Mimi Walters is only up by 2,020 votes at the moment. 103,975-101,955. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 09:01:25 PM Kim is almost certainly going to lose. Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits? Fun times. Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 09, 2018, 09:03:32 PM Kim is almost certainly going to lose. Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits? Fun times. Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7 It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 09, 2018, 09:16:01 PM Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them. AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point. CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now. Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift. () Good! The Northern Cal house map will looks so much more aesthetic with CA-10 as a dem seat! Well, that was fast. Apparently his base was disproportionately out and just updated? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 09:20:23 PM Kim is almost certainly going to lose. Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits? Fun times. Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7 It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk. I knew rohrabacher was doomed after that monmouth poll showing Putin at 50 and Rouda at 48 with trump at 54 approval. I was criticized for daring to unskew an obviously bullsh**t poll when Trumps approval there was -6 TOPS and thats generous. Its much better to look at polls in a national context and estimate what Trumps realistic approval should be looking at 538's trump approval for likely voters. Here is the monmouth poll . https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ca_091818.pdf/ The only reason hurd survived this year was due to national dem laziness to notice the polls were absolute bullsh**t in hispanic areas. Thank god about that. Then again dems got to steal NJ 2nd in return. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 09, 2018, 09:25:23 PM Kim is almost certainly going to lose. Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits? Fun times. Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7 It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk. I knew rohrabacher was doomed after that monmouth poll showing Putin at 50 and Rouda at 48 with trump at 54 approval. I was criticized for daring to unskew an obviously bullsh**t poll when Trumps approval there was -6 TOPS and thats generous. Its much better to look at polls in a national context and estimate what Trumps realistic approval should be looking at 538's trump approval for likely voters. Here is the monmouth poll . https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ca_091818.pdf/ The only reason hurd survived this year was due to national dem laziness to notice the polls were absolute bullsh**t in hispanic areas. Thank god about that. Then again dems got to steal NJ 2nd in return. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 09:29:23 PM Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else Because they know they're going to lose. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 09, 2018, 09:29:45 PM I don't even understand what straws the Reps are grasping at. What are the 'improper practices' going on in AZ? Counting votes?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 09:31:32 PM Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else There is a report from Politico that Trump and the RNC are pissed with McSally and local Arizona Republicans for not being more aggressive. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 09:37:22 PM Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else There is a report from Politico that Trump and the RNC are pissed with McSally and local Arizona Republicans for not being more aggressive. The AZ GOP got curbstomped. It's not healthy for them to go full bat-sh**t insane in a state that is trending away from them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 09:37:57 PM Kim is almost certainly going to lose. Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits? Fun times. Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7 It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk. I knew rohrabacher was doomed after that monmouth poll showing Putin at 50 and Rouda at 48 with trump at 54 approval. I was criticized for daring to unskew an obviously bullsh**t poll when Trumps approval there was -6 TOPS and thats generous. Its much better to look at polls in a national context and estimate what Trumps realistic approval should be looking at 538's trump approval for likely voters. Here is the monmouth poll . https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ca_091818.pdf/ The only reason hurd survived this year was due to national dem laziness to notice the polls were absolute bullsh**t in hispanic areas. Thank god about that. Then again dems got to steal NJ 2nd in return. Id say its likely Hurd survives but a recount here is fine and might work especially in a district with both large rural and suburban areas. Anyway Illegal border crosser polling and racist white hick polling sucked this year. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 09, 2018, 09:48:05 PM No they didn’t. They won Gov by 16%, held the legislature and narrowly lost two statewide races (maybe a third with SOS). Losing a Senate seat is certainly not good, but it was not a curb-stomping ^ I would listen to this gentleman. He's the entire reason we even say curb/burb-stomping :3 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 09, 2018, 10:03:35 PM Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 09, 2018, 10:09:41 PM Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CookieDamage on November 09, 2018, 10:11:07 PM Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"? () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 10:11:18 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SLA8 on November 09, 2018, 10:13:06 PM Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"? Heinrich and Gillibrand <3 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: JG on November 09, 2018, 10:14:10 PM Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"? Heinrich and Gillibrand <3 Yeah, there's no contest there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 09, 2018, 10:14:21 PM Why on earth didn't Garcia come close to defeating Ducey?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 09, 2018, 10:15:54 PM Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"? Thune? Schatz or Lankford all the way. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on November 09, 2018, 10:18:02 PM Why on earth didn't Garcia come close to defeating Ducey? Same reason Manchin and Tester won: because incumbency advantage is real and people are willing to split tickets and stick with a familiar and inoffensive face. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 09, 2018, 10:20:29 PM The AZ Data Guru @Garrett_Archer has the remaining vote in AZ as follows:
Apache: 189 Cochise: 626 Coconino: 9.6k La Paz: 576 Maricopa: 266k Mohave: 2k Navajo: 4k Pima: 60.8k Pinal: 26.8k Yavapai: 576 State of Arizona: 370k Sinema's lead is 1.01% or 20,102 votes Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SLA8 on November 09, 2018, 10:21:54 PM With all of Pima remaining and the 20,000 vote lead she currently has, this is looking good for Sinema.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 09, 2018, 10:26:20 PM I don't even understand what straws the Reps are grasping at. What are the 'improper practices' going on in AZ? Counting votes? Pretty much. Republicans oppose democracy. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 09, 2018, 10:31:35 PM Why on earth didn't Garcia come close to defeating Ducey? $ was a major factor. Ducey nuked him early and he never had a chance to get going. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 09, 2018, 10:37:26 PM Oh how I adore this post. Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 09, 2018, 10:46:23 PM Oh how I adore this post. Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are. I don't blame Steve here. It was definitely idiot donors who loved Comstock. See I knew Comstock was basically Safe D but I didn't expect her to lose by 13 points I thought it would be upper single due to the 5 million they spent. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 09, 2018, 11:00:09 PM I think a lot of the seats that the Dems took are pretty much gone for the GOP, specifically the suburban seats like KS-03, CO-06, VA-10, etc. I also doubt the GOP will be able to unseat either Luria or Spanberger due to Virginia's continuous shift to the Democrats along with the suburbs.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 11:26:14 PM Oh how I adore this post. Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are. I have a theory as to how Comstock got all that extra late money after the NRCC had already pulled their funds. If you remember, Comstock got those funds back right around the same time all the skeletons in Kavanaugh's closet came out. Comstock and Kavanaugh have been acquaintances/friends for at least 10-20 years through their prior work in the Bush administration. What if she had more dirt or could corroborate some of the allegations against Kavanugh? Not saying that he tried to rape her, but rather maybe a story from his prep school or college days was well known around their social circles. What if she threatens to take this public unless she gets more funds from the NRCC? Probably didn't happen, but it's the best explanation I have. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 09, 2018, 11:27:59 PM Oh how I adore this post. Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are. Kind of reminds me of the situation in the 1980's when the NRCC would dump millions into a handful of seats in urban areas, that were basically hopeless, meanwhile scores of rural seats in cheap markets went completely uncontested. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 09, 2018, 11:51:03 PM Why on earth didn't Garcia come close to defeating Ducey? $ was a major factor. Ducey nuked him early and he never had a chance to get going. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 7,052,770 on November 09, 2018, 11:51:34 PM Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else There is a report from Politico that Trump and the RNC are pissed with McSally and local Arizona Republicans for not being more aggressive. I mean, McSally is probably going to be appointed to Kyl's seat in time for the next Congress in January anyway, so she doesn't really have much to lose by playing it cool and polite. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 10, 2018, 01:22:46 AM Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"? Heinrich and Gillibrand <3 Heinrich is the only acceptable answer on the male side. You could make compelling arguments for Gillibrand, Flawless Beautiful CCM, Harris, and well, uh Sinema herself? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 01:26:52 AM Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"? Heinrich and Gillibrand <3 Heinrich is the only acceptable answer on the male side. You could make compelling arguments for Gillibrand, Flawless Beautiful CCM, Harris, and well, uh Sinema herself? NM also now is up there in terms of most attractive person in the House. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 10, 2018, 01:28:37 AM Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"? Heinrich and Gillibrand <3 Heinrich is the only acceptable answer on the male side. For some reason, I don't find him that attractive. He seems a bit... distant? It's just the impression I get. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: SLA8 on November 10, 2018, 01:54:35 AM Heinrich and Flake on that Survivor (Rival Survival) thingy ... hmhmh
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 01:59:17 AM Not sure where else to put this, so:
Looks like Republicans are finally upset enough to give ActRed another try (McCarthy seems interested). Probably won't work out, though. Democrats have been building their small donor base for years. It didn't just "work" for us right away either. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 02:39:06 AM Not sure where else to put this, so: Looks like Republicans are finally upset enough to give ActRed another try (McCarthy seems interested). Probably won't work out, though. Democrats have been building their small donor base for years. It didn't just "work" for us right away either. Eh trump can just include it in all his tweets whenever he endorses. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 03:47:32 AM Is it really such a good idea to appoint McSally to the other senate seat just weeks after her defeat? Won't that be a giant middle finger to the voters who rejected her?
And aren't there any other ambitious Republicans who will resent this blatant act of favoritism and will seriously consider primarying her? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 10, 2018, 03:51:38 AM Is it really such a good idea to appoint McSally to the other senate seat just weeks after her defeat? Won't that be a giant middle finger to the voters who rejected her? Yes. But if you really think about it, so are unelected gubernatorial appointments to vacant Senate seats as well. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 10, 2018, 07:37:07 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: JG on November 10, 2018, 08:00:12 AM Is it really such a good idea to appoint McSally to the other senate seat just weeks after her defeat? Won't that be a giant middle finger to the voters I mean, between voters supression and their outrage at counting every ballots, isn't that the Republican's whole shtick? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 10, 2018, 08:21:22 AM Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 10, 2018, 08:49:04 AM Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%. According to Wasserman's current data, there are 8: GA-06 D+0.9 GA-07 R+0.3 ME-02 R+0.7 (before RCV) MN-01 R+0.5 NY-22 D+0.6 NY-27 R+1.0 NC-09 R+0.7 TX-23 R+0.6 Plus some of the close California races may move into this range when they're done counting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 09:09:57 AM Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%. According to Wasserman's current data, there are 8: GA-06 D+0.9 GA-07 R+0.3 ME-02 R+0.7 (before RCV) MN-01 R+0.5 NY-22 D+0.6 NY-27 R+1.0 NC-09 R+0.7 TX-23 R+0.6 Plus some of the close California races may move into this range when they're done counting. There is also UT-04, which Silver has as Likely D. I'm puzzled because to my untrained eye it seems like Utah County is so heavily Republican that it may have the votes to push Love over the top. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 10, 2018, 10:05:44 AM Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%. According to Wasserman's current data, there are 8: GA-06 D+0.9 GA-07 R+0.3 ME-02 R+0.7 (before RCV) MN-01 R+0.5 NY-22 D+0.6 NY-27 R+1.0 NC-09 R+0.7 TX-23 R+0.6 Plus some of the close California races may move into this range when they're done counting. There is also UT-04, which Silver has as Likely D. I'm puzzled because to my untrained eye it seems like Utah County is so heavily Republican that it may have the votes to push Love over the top. Geography hides the actual data. According to UT04 on DRA, there are: - about 12K people in Sanpete - 9.5K in Juab - 87K in Utah - 594K in SLC The chunk of Utah county in this seat includes none of the large cities like Provo and is instead basically everything west of Lake Utah, which is mostly rurals. So why is this seat so Pub if SLC overwhelms the districts cracking rurals? That chunk of SLC includes the most pub parts of the county like the Jordans and Riverton. If McAdams can defeat these areas in SLC and win the county by more then a 3% margin, he wins - the rurals/Utah only lower the overall margin by about that amount. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 10, 2018, 11:56:08 AM Not sure why people are surprised Ducey won in AZ. It was less about it being R, but more about he was assured to win once the McCain stuff happened. Garcia stood no chance after that no matter what.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 10, 2018, 12:25:47 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 12:32:03 PM nate could just say dems have around 230 and reps have 240. Rep Wave> dem wave . Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 10, 2018, 12:36:33 PM I unignored everyone for Election Night, but I have a feeling it's time to start a new list.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 10, 2018, 01:35:55 PM This is an odd way to think about it IMO Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: UncleSam on November 10, 2018, 01:43:57 PM This is an odd way to think about it IMO Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 01:48:51 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 10, 2018, 01:52:32 PM This batch was McSally +4. She needs to be winning by a much larger margin here to have a chance. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 02:06:45 PM ()
Turnout could actually end up higher than 31% when the CPS analysis is done. Also: () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 10, 2018, 02:07:41 PM This batch was McSally +4. She needs to be winning by a much larger margin here to have a chance. That’s not nearly enough for her Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 10, 2018, 02:08:57 PM If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas.
Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 02:11:32 PM If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas. Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal. Sinema wants to have a word with you. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Kodak on November 10, 2018, 02:12:44 PM If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas. Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 10, 2018, 02:13:29 PM If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas. Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal. Sinema wants to have a word with you. AZ has a WV problem with registration. While crossover appeal was definitely a factor, as it as in many other races, the enthusiasm that each party had going in was the defining factor for many races. With polarization on the rise, and tribalism increasing, enthusiasm will become the main factor to campaign. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 10, 2018, 02:46:06 PM Ya usually I’m on board with Nate’s odd data perspectives but it doesn’t make much sense to include the House gains as a president gains office with his first midterm. There needs to be some way to account for the different exposure each President had to a reversal in the House. Otherwise you're "penalizing" the Dems in this comparison because Obama was a better candidate than Trump running in a landslide win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 02:51:48 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 10, 2018, 02:51:54 PM Oh how I adore this post. Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are. I don't blame Steve here. It was definitely idiot donors who loved Comstock. See I knew Comstock was basically Safe D but I didn't expect her to lose by 13 points I thought it would be upper single due to the 5 million they spent. Stivers was head of the R Triple C. Generally speaking, he had final say on where the money was allocated. As this tweet shows this is rccc money flushed down the toilet helping Comstock in what everybody from both side saw was a doomed reelection campaign. Why on Earth should be held accountable for this? Again, not that I'm complaining. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 10, 2018, 02:53:55 PM Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 10, 2018, 02:54:49 PM Oh how I adore this post. Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are. I have a theory as to how Comstock got all that extra late money after the NRCC had already pulled their funds. If you remember, Comstock got those funds back right around the same time all the skeletons in Kavanaugh's closet came out. Comstock and Kavanaugh have been acquaintances/friends for at least 10-20 years through their prior work in the Bush administration. What if she had more dirt or could corroborate some of the allegations against Kavanugh? Not saying that he tried to rape her, but rather maybe a story from his prep school or college days was well known around their social circles. What if she threatens to take this public unless she gets more funds from the NRCC? Probably didn't happen, but it's the best explanation I have. Interesting, but even a Kavanagh hater like me thinks that's too far-fetched to give much credence. Maybe another more Salient explanation is Kavanaugh's word suddenly became gold among Republican activist so a good word about Comstock here and there, even if past second hand from Cavanaugh, could have raised her vast sums of money. For comparison's sake, think about how I candidate who is close to dr. Ford would have done if she got the word out directly or through intermediaries that say Wexler was on her side and trustworthy? Not saying it happened, but it does make a bit more sense then a possible blackmail angle. Though the ladder would obviously make some awesomely juicy fanfiction. ;D Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 02:55:46 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 02:58:53 PM Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona. It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 03:31:21 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 03:37:36 PM Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona. It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it. I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 10, 2018, 03:38:50 PM This was actually a big one for McSally, she won by 25%, but it was only a net gain of 400 votes. Unless she gets that kind of a margin from Maricopa as well, there's no path for her. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 10, 2018, 03:51:00 PM Navajo County has a very large Mormon population. Would not shock me if this latest dump included a substantial amount of Mormons.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 03:54:59 PM So much for the most conservative generation in American history :P Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 03:58:54 PM Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona. It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it. I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory. Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 10, 2018, 04:02:28 PM Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona. It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it. I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory. Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots. So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts. And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 04:03:47 PM So much for the most conservative generation in American history :P ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 04:03:53 PM Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona. It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it. I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory. Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots. So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts. And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then. You got it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 04:08:49 PM Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona. It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it. I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory. Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots. So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts. And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then. You got it. I guess Wasserman should call it for Sinema once Pima and Maricopa come in today. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 10, 2018, 04:14:03 PM Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona. It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it. I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory. Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots. So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts. And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then. You got it. I guess Wasserman should call it for Sinema once Pima and Maricopa come in today. Are we getting anything from Pima today, though? I thought we'd get more from Pima on Tuesday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: adma on November 10, 2018, 04:26:39 PM So much for the most conservative generation in American history :P ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway. I think that "most conservative generation" remark was meant sarcastically. (Though ironically these days, Dem/left-leaning *might as well* reflect something "conservative"--in the non-political, "sensible" sense: Ocasio-Cortez as the polar opposite of the excesses of Trump, Kavanaugh, Roy Moore et al.) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 05:21:04 PM So much for the most conservative generation in American history :P ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway. I think that "most conservative generation" remark was meant sarcastically. (Though ironically these days, Dem/left-leaning *might as well* reflect something "conservative"--in the non-political, "sensible" sense: Ocasio-Cortez as the polar opposite of the excesses of Trump, Kavanaugh, Roy Moore et al.) Yea, the Nazi generation thing was a joke, but there was a serious argument that "generation z" or whatever it is being called was going to be more conservative than Millennials. People even cited dubious studies from the UK. But, I guess to be fair, "more conservative" doesn't mean Republican-leaning. It just means less Democratic-leaning than Millennials. Either way, that's not the case so far. Whenever it does become the case, it will be hard to miss. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 05:27:01 PM So much for the most conservative generation in American history :P ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway. I think that "most conservative generation" remark was meant sarcastically. (Though ironically these days, Dem/left-leaning *might as well* reflect something "conservative"--in the non-political, "sensible" sense: Ocasio-Cortez as the polar opposite of the excesses of Trump, Kavanaugh, Roy Moore et al.) Yea, the Nazi generation thing was a joke, but there was a serious argument that "generation z" or whatever it is being called was going to be more conservative than Millennials. People even cited dubious studies from the UK. But, I guess to be fair, "more conservative" doesn't mean Republican-leaning. It just means less Democratic-leaning than Millennials. Either way, that's not the case so far. Whenever it does become the case, it will be hard to miss. TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 05:28:10 PM Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 05:30:24 PM TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials. One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s). Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 10, 2018, 05:31:58 PM Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 05:35:56 PM Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far). Yup. Sinema is still ahead 18K Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 05:45:01 PM TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials. One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s). Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there. The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 05:50:07 PM Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 05:50:17 PM TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials. One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s). Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there. The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI). Yep, for better or worse that's the trade that Democrats had to do. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 05:51:47 PM Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far). Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 05:56:30 PM Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far). Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 06:05:49 PM The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI). Theoretically, we'd get Scalia's seat, I could see Ginsburg and Breyer retiring, and Kennedy is iffy but maybe he does after the 2018 elections, so we could definitely lock down a lasting 5-4 majority if we had the Senate, and depending on what Kennedy does, maybe a 6 - 3 one. However at that point, if Republicans amassed huge Congressional power post-2020, you'd have to seriously consider that they would pack the court. They have done it at the state level, and recently tried to do it in North Carolina. This is on top of all their other attacks on the judiciary, including impeaching justices they want to replace for partisan reasons. With 60+ Senate votes, it's very easy to see them doing that. Such a scheme might even include the Federalist Society's plan to add hundreds of new federal judges. As far as I am concerned, the only reason they haven't done this at the federal level is because they lacked the power and urgency to do it. A long-lasting 5 - 4 or worse, 6 - 3 liberal majority all but ensures the urgency part. Their base would be foaming at the mouth for it. So I think if the only reason for wanting Clinton to win knowing the losses that await is a Supreme Court majority, one has to really weigh the risk of Republicans packing the judiciary from top to bottom. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 06:12:09 PM Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far). Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00. Well, the question is, how much did McSally improved? If McSally is winning in a blowout, then it's worrying. If McSally is winning by a much smaller margin or drawing even, there's no reason to worry. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 06:13:49 PM Navajo made another drop apparently.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 10, 2018, 06:14:44 PM I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.
I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 06:15:10 PM I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion. I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately No one is shocked you think this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 10, 2018, 06:15:20 PM I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion. I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately No one is shocked you think this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 06:15:40 PM Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far). Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00. Well, the question is, how much did McSally improved? If McSally is winning in a blowout, then it's worrying. If McSally is winning by a much smaller margin or drawing even, there's no reason to worry. Or maybe she isn't winning at all. If Sinema is +15 in an evenly split batch then she would be up by "just" 5 in a R+10 sample. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 06:16:00 PM Navajo made another drop apparently. Another underperfomance by McSally. Sinema +18,363 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 10, 2018, 06:17:59 PM I kinda just realized. Ed Case didnt rejoin the Blue Dogs this year(he had the chance to, he never did). Is it possible that he has moved Left? Or is Ed being weird?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 06:18:28 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 06:18:46 PM I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion. I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately She's getting almost nothing from her last favorable out-state counties. Plus Maricopa Pot B is only about 40K more than Pima + Maricopa Pot A. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 10, 2018, 06:21:46 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 06:22:51 PM I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion. I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately She's getting almost nothing from her last favorable out-state counties. Plus Maricopa Pot B is only about 40K more than Pima + Maricopa Pot A. Bucket A (297,104 ballots) is actually bigger than Bucket B (195,296 ballots) () () () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 06:28:53 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 06:31:19 PM Sinema up 24K!! She also just crossed 1mill in the count. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 06:33:01 PM The Republican is only up 6,203 in the SoS race now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 06:36:13 PM Feel like Maricopa is going to dash our hopes ugh.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 10, 2018, 06:36:15 PM I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion. I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately She's getting almost nothing from her last favorable out-state counties. Plus Maricopa Pot B is only about 40K more than Pima + Maricopa Pot A. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MillennialModerate on November 10, 2018, 06:36:47 PM I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion. I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately No one is shocked you think this. It’s a Lean R state and the Republicans are winning every other statewide race. Sinema is favored but it’s no sure thing Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 06:37:17 PM Feel like Maricopa is going to dash our hopes ugh. Umm the Maricopa drop tonight is from Sinema's congressional district. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 06:38:00 PM I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion. I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately No one is shocked you think this. It’s a Lean R state and the Republicans are winning every other statewide race. Sinema is favored but it’s no sure thing ??? Republicans have basically lost the Superintendent of Public Instruction and could very well lose the Secretary of State's office too. Sinema has all but wrapped up this race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 06:39:22 PM The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 06:42:32 PM The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 06:44:41 PM The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere. Yea I know but those ballots counted today out of Navajo were likely from election day as they were the last one counted and they trended heavy R. Maricopa election day vote was supposedly heavy R too so she could conceivably get the same overperformance there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 06:44:46 PM Gimme dem Maricopa digits!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 10, 2018, 06:46:36 PM The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere. Navajo County is weird because nearly everyone who lives there is either a Mormon Republican or a Native American Democrat. So oddities with Mormon or Native voting patterns (e.g., Natives don’t vote by mail because they’re less likely to have a mailing address) will show up there but are irrelevant elsewhere (except in Apache County, which has the same dynamic but more Natives and fewer Mormons). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 06:47:57 PM The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere. Yea I know but those ballots counted today out of Navajo were likely from election day as they were the last one counted and they trended heavy R. Maricopa election day vote was supposedly heavy R too so she could conceivably get the same overperformance there. It has already been discussed to dead. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 06:50:06 PM The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere. Yea I know but those ballots counted today out of Navajo were likely from election day as they were the last one counted and they trended heavy R. Maricopa election day vote was supposedly heavy R too so she could conceivably get the same overperformance there. It has already been discussed to dead. So theoretically would R+10 or R+12 be enough for Sinema to lose at this point? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 06:50:30 PM The real race in AZ is SoS now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 06:51:59 PM This was from last night, but it essentially remains the same:
McSally needs to win the rest of the Maricopa County vote by 11% (probably a bit more now with what came and what is left from Pima). So far, she's only winning the ED voters in Maricopa County by 5.2%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 06:55:50 PM Here we go!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 06:55:57 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 10, 2018, 06:56:28 PM TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials. One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s). Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there. The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI). Republicans would never have given a hearing to anyone Clinton had nominated anyway. Also, with things going the way they have gone, support for court packing has steadily risen (and will rise further if Trump ends up replacing Ginsburg or anything like that, and will rise with each of the many unpopular decisions the partisan GOP SCOTUS may make). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 10, 2018, 06:59:41 PM I kinda just realized. Ed Case didnt rejoin the Blue Dogs this year(he had the chance to, he never did). Is it possible that he has moved Left? Or is Ed being weird? Who wants to join a club in which you are the only member? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 06:59:52 PM TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials. One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s). Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there. The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI). Republicans would never have given a hearing to anyone Clinton had nominated anyway. Also, with things going the way they have gone, support for court packing has steadily risen (and will rise further if Trump ends up replacing Ginsburg or anything like that, and will rise with each of the many unpopular decisions the partisan GOP SCOTUS may make). That's why I said I would assume a Clinton win would include a Democratic Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 07:01:47 PM Maricopa time?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: InheritTheWind on November 10, 2018, 07:01:56 PM Maricopa just updated, I believe.
Sinema now leads by 38K. SoS race now within a 3.2K margin. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 07:02:00 PM Maricopa time? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 07:02:16 PM Sinema +28,688
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 10, 2018, 07:02:29 PM That's why I said I would assume a Clinton win would include a Democratic Senate. Ah, sorry. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 07:02:42 PM Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120
How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 07:03:26 PM I kinda just realized. Ed Case didnt rejoin the Blue Dogs this year(he had the chance to, he never did). Is it possible that he has moved Left? Or is Ed being weird? Who wants to join a club in which you are the only member? Actually a handful of new Blue Dogs were elected (Van Drew, Cunningham, Horn). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 10, 2018, 07:03:43 PM Maricopa on EDay: SINEMA+3
Maricopa latest batch: SINEMA+7 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 07:03:59 PM BREAKING: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema(D) elected Senator from Arizona, defeating Rep. Martha McSally (R), winning the seat for Democrats for the first time since 1988.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 10, 2018, 07:04:05 PM It would be fantastic to pick up AZ SOS. Get that election administration under Dem control for 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 10, 2018, 07:05:00 PM Gaynor only leading by 3,120. Dems should pick up the SoS as well.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 07:05:21 PM So like, should Sinema declare victory?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 07:05:23 PM Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120 How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow? No, this was Sinema's batch. The next one will be McSally's. So depends on McSally batch vs Pima. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 07:05:29 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 10, 2018, 07:05:39 PM Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120 How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow? The rest of Pima alone would turn that into a Hobbs lead. Gaynor needs to win the rest of Maricopa to win So a meaningful amount of Pima is still out? Does this mean Sinema's lead is now basically insurmountable? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 07:05:59 PM 50K of batch A votes apparently have been quarantined.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 07:06:00 PM Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120 How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow? The rest of Pima alone would turn that into a Hobbs lead. Gaynor needs to win the rest of Maricopa to win So a meaningful amount of Pima is still out? Does this mean Sinema's lead is now basically insurmountable? Pretty much. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 07:06:07 PM This was a bucket B batch:
Devastating for McSally. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 07:06:23 PM 50K of batch A votes apparently have been quarantined. Wait, what? There are 50K MORE? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Devout Centrist on November 10, 2018, 07:07:15 PM I kept telling everyone that this would happen
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 07:08:04 PM Holy f**k, that was the supposedly "McSally" batch?
Senate: Likely D -> Safe D SoS: Tossup -> Likely D Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 07:08:23 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 10, 2018, 07:08:44 PM wait, this was the pro-McSally batch. Well, looks like the SoS is ours!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 07:09:12 PM If that was batch B, then the networks should probably be calling this race for Sinema.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 10, 2018, 07:09:23 PM Holy f**k, that was the supposedly "McSally" batch? Senate: Likely D -> Safe D SoS: Tossup -> Likely D Yep. Rip McSally. Press F to pay respects. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Comrade Funk on November 10, 2018, 07:09:27 PM Senator-elect Sinema
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 10, 2018, 07:10:40 PM So what was dropped? The Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket? I'm confused.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 10, 2018, 07:11:47 PM So what was dropped? The Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket? I'm confused. This was at least part of bucket B (McSally’s strong bucket) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 07:11:47 PM So what was dropped the Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket? I'm confused. It was Bucket B, which should have been pro-McSally. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Devout Centrist on November 10, 2018, 07:12:43 PM Note that the only reason 'bucket B' was supposed to be pro-McSally is because her campaign told reporters that it would be. There was no reason to actually believe that this would be the case.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 10, 2018, 07:13:17 PM LOL the AP called the SOS race for Gaynor too. Looks like they'll have to retract that if Bucket B cuts into his margin like that.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 10, 2018, 07:13:51 PM Note that the only reason 'bucket B' was supposed to be pro-McSally is because her campaign told reporters that it would be. There was no reason to actually believe that this would be the case. It certainly was a stretch to believe that since in person election day votes were R+10, all early votes delivered on election day would be too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 07:14:31 PM Projection incoming?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 07:14:48 PM The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 07:15:50 PM So what was dropped? The Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket? I'm confused. both, apparently Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 10, 2018, 07:16:26 PM The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed. So if it wasn't all Batch B today, this probably isn't callable yet, but Sinema has to be a 3 or 4 to 1 favorite at this point with some favorable Batch A still out? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 10, 2018, 07:16:36 PM The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed. Thats fine, but this batch had early votes returned on election day and it still went for Sinema by 3 points. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 07:18:19 PM The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed. Thats fine, but this batch had early votes returned on election day and it still went for Sinema by 3 points. The batch today went for her by 7 points. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 07:19:04 PM PredictIt is now 97-4 in favor of Sinema. Not that it matters.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 07:19:07 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cg41386 on November 10, 2018, 07:20:21 PM https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/09/which-precincts-voting-martha-mcsally-and-kyrsten-sinema-maricopa-county-arizona-senate/1944724002/
This has a Maricopa County precinct results map as of Thursday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 10, 2018, 07:20:45 PM The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed. Thats fine, but this batch had early votes returned on election day and it still went for Sinema by 3 points. The batch today went for her by 7 points. Yes, but in person Maricopa voters, the group that is supposedly favorable for McSally, went for Sinema by 2.4%. This is the group thats supposed to save McSally. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1061406967686746112 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 07:21:08 PM Sunday is McSally's last chance.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 10, 2018, 07:21:09 PM STFU about “buckets.” At least use the word “batch” so I don’t cringe.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 10, 2018, 07:21:57 PM STFU about “buckets.” At least use the word “batch” so I don’t cringe. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 10, 2018, 07:22:08 PM LOL the AP called the SOS race for Gaynor too. Looks like they'll have to retract that if Bucket B cuts into his margin like that. It seems like there should really be a national law against "calling" races at all until the vote tallies are finalized. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 07:23:51 PM LOL the AP called the SOS race for Gaynor too. Looks like they'll have to retract that if Bucket B cuts into his margin like that. It seems like there should really be a national law against "calling" races at all until the vote tallies are finalized. I mean when its 100% obvious that the trends are not gonna favor the caniddate like Levin and Harkey its fine. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 10, 2018, 07:24:50 PM McSally would need to win the remaining Maricopa votes by 15%.
https://twitter.com/treyterry/status/1061413264825868288 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 07:25:18 PM McSally would need to win the remaining Maricopa votes by 15%. https://twitter.com/treyterry/status/1061413264825868288 Also- Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 10, 2018, 07:26:11 PM Just saving this here
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 10, 2018, 07:27:04 PM McSally can put that bucket where it hurts. Congrats to Senator-elect Sinema.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 10, 2018, 07:27:07 PM Stick a fork in McSally, she's done.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 07:28:22 PM Stick a fork in McSally, she's done. when will dems stick a fork in Nelson? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 10, 2018, 07:29:28 PM Stick a fork in McSally, she's done. when will dems stick a fork in Nelson? Already did around 1am central time November 7th, your turn. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 10, 2018, 07:29:52 PM Do we know how many Batch B votes are actually left? If there were 200K left yesterday, and at least 50K of those were counted today, the math becomes basically impossible for McSally.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 07:30:22 PM Stick a fork in McSally, she's done. when will dems stick a fork in Nelson? Already did around 1am central time November 7th, your turn. I mean I stuck a fork in Mcsally since she took the lead. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 10, 2018, 07:30:58 PM Stick a fork in McSally, she's done. when will dems stick a fork in Nelson? Already did around 1am central time November 7th, your turn. I mean I stuck a fork in Mcsally since she took the lead. Fair enough then. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 07:34:38 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 07:39:24 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 07:39:38 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 07:40:16 PM STOP STOP you are killing her. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 07:41:30 PM Do we know how many Batch B votes are actually left? If there were 200K left yesterday, and at least 50K of those were counted today, the math becomes basically impossible for McSally. Maricopa Totals: ~198,000 Maricopa Batch A: ~50,000 Maricopa Batch B: ~148,000 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 07:43:30 PM Do we know how many Batch B votes are actually left? If there were 200K left yesterday, and at least 50K of those were counted today, the math becomes basically impossible for McSally. Maricopa Totals: ~198,000 Maricopa Batch A: ~50,000 Maricopa Batch B: ~148,000 That’s callable. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 10, 2018, 07:53:06 PM Stick a fork in McSally, she's done. when will dems stick a fork in Nelson? I mean, there's a difference between a 1.3% deficit and a 0.15% deficit, though most of us aren't really holding out much hope at all for Nelson. Either way, the votes in both states should be counted in their entirety, and it's disheartening (though not surprising) that there are many in the country who can't at least agree on that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 07:54:28 PM Stick a fork in McSally, she's done. when will dems stick a fork in Nelson? I mean, there's a difference between a 1.3% deficit and a 0.15% deficit, though most of us aren't really holding out much hope at all for Nelson. Either way, the votes in both states should be counted in their entirety, and it's disheartening (though not surprising) that there are many in the country who can't at least agree on that. In the minute by minute news cycle it had to be done on Tuesday, otherwise it doesn't count. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 10, 2018, 07:54:52 PM Yeah, that means there are at most 180K McSally-friendly votes left. She'd need to win those by 15-16 points just to pull even, and that's not counting the remaining votes that favor Sinema.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: American2020 on November 10, 2018, 07:55:55 PM Sinema: 49.51%
McSally: 48.15% https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 (https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ronnie on November 10, 2018, 07:58:50 PM Sinema: 49.51% McSally: 48.15% https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0 (https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0) () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 07:59:52 PM Yeah, that means there are at most 180K McSally-friendly votes left. She'd need to win those by 15-16 points just to pull even, and that's not counting the remaining votes that favor Sinema. Esepcially considering as of now she's only winning the E-Day vote by in the county by 5.2%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 08:15:01 PM ()
() () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 10, 2018, 08:16:55 PM Is it possible that Sinema could hit 50% with the remaining votes, like Tester did?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 08:17:26 PM Remind me again why none of the networks have called the 48th for Rouda? The results probably won’t even be close when all the votes are counted.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 08:20:37 PM Hmm not much of a boost for Dems in that Cali dump, is that unusual how much did they count?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 08:26:55 PM Hmm not much of a boost for Dems in that Cali dump, is that unusual how much did they count? Eyeballing it, it looks like about 8-9K per race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 10, 2018, 08:27:00 PM Hmm not much of a boost for Dems in that Cali dump, is that unusual how much did they count? Eh, Wasserman seems to expect Dems to win even CA-39. Looks like they did not count that many votes today. And in CA-45, the R lead dropped 1%, so that is not too bad I wouldn't say. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 10, 2018, 08:27:12 PM McSally might be reluctant to go full on nutcase because she’s smart enough to know it would hurt her in a 2020 race if voters perceive her as a sore loser Unlike Trump and the peanut gallery, McSally isn't an idiot. She knows how elections in Arizona work. She barely lost through this exact same process in 2012 and barely won through this exact same process in 2014. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 10, 2018, 08:27:22 PM Remind me again why none of the networks have called the 48th for Rouda? The results probably won’t even be close when all the votes are counted. Yep. Rouda has already announced that he and his staff think they’ve won now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 10, 2018, 08:28:13 PM I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion. I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately Good thing you're always wrong then. Feel like Maricopa is going to dash our hopes ugh. lol. The concern trolling is getting stale, henster. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: _ on November 10, 2018, 08:29:57 PM AZ-SOS is gonna flip Dem if the votes keep going like this, that'd be great news for AZ Dems and National Dems for 2020 and beyond.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 08:30:51 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 10, 2018, 08:31:03 PM Regarding Arizona, this whole Bucket A vs Bucket B concept is a giant load of bullocks, premised upon traditional midterm turnout elections in '14 and '10 and GE turnout in '12 and '16.
We went through this with the Arizona Special Election in CD-08 just this past April, and what appears to be happening is that traditional voting patterns are shifting dramatically when it comes to EV/ED numbers. Initially the voter modeling in AZ CD-08 suggested a much higher level of ballots still to be cast, as we assessed numbers coming in post ED... Now we have a totally different scene in one of the highest Turnout non-PRES election years in US History, this even further confuses the situation... What this means is that the "Batch A" vs "Batch B" concept, can be safely tossed out the car window and consigned to the dustbin of history when it comes to Arizona voter return and counting practices. That being said, I'm wishing that I had spent more time looking at the real time results as they came in, like I did in the '18 CD-08 SE, and compare/contrast against historical voting data by precinct... (Maricopa County like most of the Western US is extremely transparent when it comes to counting of the ballots). Here is a link to the CD-08 SE thread for anyone interested... https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6155288#msg6155288 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 08:32:07 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Kentuckian on November 10, 2018, 08:33:57 PM AZ-SOS is gonna flip Dem if the votes keep going like this, that'd be great news for AZ Dems and National Dems for 2020 and beyond. Not to mention a Democrat winning Superintendent of Public Instruction and another hopefully getting a seat on the Corporation Commission. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 08:34:50 PM is there anyone besides Ducey or Mcsally moderate enough to win Az 2020?
It looks like AZ will be a moderate hero state as it trends democrat. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: adma on November 10, 2018, 08:35:38 PM So much for the most conservative generation in American history :P ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway. I think that "most conservative generation" remark was meant sarcastically. (Though ironically these days, Dem/left-leaning *might as well* reflect something "conservative"--in the non-political, "sensible" sense: Ocasio-Cortez as the polar opposite of the excesses of Trump, Kavanaugh, Roy Moore et al.) Yea, the Nazi generation thing was a joke, but there was a serious argument that "generation z" or whatever it is being called was going to be more conservative than Millennials. People even cited dubious studies from the UK. But, I guess to be fair, "more conservative" doesn't mean Republican-leaning. It just means less Democratic-leaning than Millennials. Either way, that's not the case so far. Whenever it does become the case, it will be hard to miss. Not even "less Dem-leaning", necessarily. I think what it really is, is a wishful misreading of "more conservative"--that is, it doesn't mean less Dem-leaning, so much as it means less likely to be drunken/rapey in college a la Kavanaugh. Which might, in fact, reflexively mean *more* Dem-leaning in an era when the GOP's become the party of radicalism and wretched excess in the self-styled guise of "conservativism"... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 10, 2018, 08:36:10 PM Even the Sinema camp was conceding batch B was R+10 and the McSally camp confirmed it per Vaughn Hillyard tweet. And the theory of the batch being more favorable to her was confirmed by today's dump as it was much less than previous which were from batch A.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 08:37:36 PM AZ-SOS is gonna flip Dem if the votes keep going like this, that'd be great news for AZ Dems and National Dems for 2020 and beyond. Not to mention a Democrat winning Superintendent of Public Instruction and another hopefully getting a seat on the Corporation Commission. SOS is by far the biggest downballot prize. Becomes Gov if Ducey leaves yeah that basically gives them the 2020 senate seat too as I don't think a loser will run again after they lost in a light red state(beto has the excuse of making a great margin) so ducey will not let the governor become a democrat. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 08:37:38 PM Even the Sinema camp was conceding batch B was R+10 and the McSally camp confirmed it per Vaughn Hillyard tweet. And the theory of the batch being more favorable to her was confirmed by today's dump as it was much less than previous which were from batch A. Even if it's R+10 that's not enough. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Kentuckian on November 10, 2018, 08:38:10 PM AZ-SOS is gonna flip Dem if the votes keep going like this, that'd be great news for AZ Dems and National Dems for 2020 and beyond. Not to mention a Democrat winning Superintendent of Public Instruction and another hopefully getting a seat on the Corporation Commission. SOS is by far the biggest downballot prize. Becomes Gov if Ducey leaves Oh definitely. I was just celebrating Dems possibly winning four statewide races in Arizona. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 08:39:52 PM So we can take this as a projection? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 08:43:48 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 10, 2018, 08:44:58 PM When will Rohrabacher be recalled to Moscow? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cg41386 on November 10, 2018, 08:46:24 PM About time.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 10, 2018, 08:47:53 PM Good riddance to Rohrabacher, one of the absolute worst Trumpist in Congress.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 08:48:15 PM Even the Sinema camp was conceding batch B was R+10 and the McSally camp confirmed it per Vaughn Hillyard tweet. And the theory of the batch being more favorable to her was confirmed by today's dump as it was much less than previous which were from batch A. 1. That's VOTER REGISTRATION, not how people vote. 2. That's assuming that the late earlys vote the same way as the the votes on E-day. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 10, 2018, 08:54:25 PM Enten appears to be calling it:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 08:59:13 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 10, 2018, 09:01:02 PM Sinema now holds a 30,000 vote lead.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 09:01:46 PM Big dump for Sinema out of Coconino:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 09:02:46 PM yeah we get it. Sinema probably wins by 2 points.
Its over. Only thing that matters now is SOS race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 10, 2018, 09:02:47 PM Hobbs only down exactly 2008 votes in the SOS race now, and Sandra Kennedy has the most votes of anyone in the Corporation Commission race.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 09:03:33 PM Hobbs only down exactly 2008 votes in the SOS race now, and Sandra Kennedy has the most votes of anyone in the Corporation Commission race. Yeah SOS is probably Lean D RN. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 10, 2018, 09:04:12 PM Will Sinema hit 50% with the remaining votes? I've asked this question already.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 10, 2018, 09:04:56 PM Will Sinema hit 50% with the remaining votes? I've asked this question already. Sorry, didn't see. It looks like a resounding yes. The final result will probably be around 50.5 to 51% Sinema. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 09:05:14 PM Incredibly excited over AZ Secretary of State results so far :3
(might just be the most nerdiest thing said ever) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: American2020 on November 10, 2018, 09:05:31 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 09:07:24 PM I love how conservatives keep referring to the counting of actual votes as "finding" new votes. They need to stop bashing education and go back and get some more of it.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: psychprofessor on November 10, 2018, 09:11:14 PM I love how conservatives keep referring to the counting of actual votes as "finding" new votes. They need to stop bashing education and go back and get some more of it. These conservatives all acting like they got their degrees from Trump U Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2018, 09:16:40 PM Incredibly excited over AZ Secretary of State results so far :3 (might just be the most nerdiest thing said ever) Me too. Because: 1. Ducey wouldn’t run for Senate in 2020 if Hobbs was SOS (he would be the best NRSC recruit) 2. Election oversight 3. Hobbs would stand an excellent chance of becoming AZ Gov in her own right given how many past Secretaries of State have become Governor of Arizona Yeah if hobbs wins im keeping AZ senate Tilt D for 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 10, 2018, 09:30:59 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 10, 2018, 09:47:53 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow?
I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 96FJV on November 10, 2018, 09:50:34 PM Is it possible McSally could concede anytime soon?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 10, 2018, 09:57:18 PM Will Sinema hit 50% with the remaining votes? I've asked this question already. Sorry, didn't see. It looks like a resounding yes. The final result will probably be around 50.5 to 51% Sinema. I am glad to hear that. It will make the map more aesthetically pleasing, leaving Manchin as the only Democrat to win while failing to obtain a absolute majority. Scott, if he pulls it out, will be the only Republican to do so. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 10, 2018, 09:58:07 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow? I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. Didnt the margin between Porter and Walters shrink by 1% today? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 10, 2018, 09:58:27 PM Is it possible McSally could concede anytime soon? I doubt she will concede. It's still mathematically possible for her to win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 10:00:18 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow? I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. I'm not sure, but I remember when we waited during the primary. There was a lull in the middle where the Republicans did a bit better. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 10, 2018, 10:02:07 PM I love how conservatives keep referring to the counting of actual votes as "finding" new votes. They need to stop bashing education and go back and get some more of it. These conservatives all acting like they got their degrees from Trump U But I thought that you learn counting in Kindergarten, not in University. At least, I did. Maybe it is different in the rural areas though. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 10, 2018, 10:02:14 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow? I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win. Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 10, 2018, 10:04:21 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow? I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. Didnt the margin between Porter and Walters shrink by 1% today? That was yesterday. Today it shrunk by like a dozen of votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 10, 2018, 10:05:30 PM Chill down people. There are still more than 300k ballots in Orange county and today they counted less than 1/10 of that. For all we know this batch might have been from Walters's neighborhood district.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 10, 2018, 10:06:05 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow? I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win. Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats. I care about Katie a lot more than Cisneros, but I hope they both win of course. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 10:06:22 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow? I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win. Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats. I'm not sure how much counting Los Angeles County has done. They don't seem to be on the same regular schedule as Orange County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 10:24:27 PM Incredibly excited over AZ Secretary of State results so far :3 (might just be the most nerdiest thing said ever) Me too. Because: 1. Ducey wouldn’t run for Senate in 2020 if Hobbs was SOS (he would be the best NRSC recruit) 2. Election oversight 3. Hobbs would stand an excellent chance of becoming AZ Gov in her own right given how many past Secretaries of State have become Governor of Arizona Alternatively, if Ducey runs for senate and win, we pickup the governor seat. Still a win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on November 10, 2018, 10:27:11 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow? I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win. Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats. I'm not sure how much counting Los Angeles County has done. They don't seem to be on the same regular schedule as Orange County. Los Angeles County isn't updating until Tuesday afternoon. San Bernardino County is updating on Wednesday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 10:31:16 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow? I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win. Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats. I'm not sure how much counting Los Angeles County has done. They don't seem to be on the same regular schedule as Orange County. Los Angeles County isn't updating until Tuesday afternoon. San Bernardino County is updating on Wednesday. Yeah, LA County is where Cisneros is most likely to get votes he needs to win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 10, 2018, 10:34:23 PM Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow? I really want Katie Porter to pull this off. Well if LA County is not at all in the numbers and nonetheless Cisneros gained even anything at all, that should be a very good sign for him. Kim should be winning the OC part of CA-39 for her to have a realistic shot. More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win. Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats. I'm not sure how much counting Los Angeles County has done. They don't seem to be on the same regular schedule as Orange County. Los Angeles County isn't updating until Tuesday afternoon. San Bernardino County is updating on Wednesday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 12:14:34 AM Thank God this woman didn't win...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 11, 2018, 12:17:24 AM Thank God this woman didn't win... She made Lou Barletta proud. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 11, 2018, 12:21:56 AM Thank God this woman didn't win... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 11, 2018, 12:29:28 AM Thank God this woman didn't win... She made Lou Barletta proud. *did* Lou even concede? I didn't even see him write anything about Casey winning Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 11, 2018, 12:29:58 AM Funny, when Democrats lose: "You lost, get over it." When Republicans lose: "Voter fraud! Finding votes! They stole the election!"
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 11, 2018, 02:37:55 AM Good riddance to Rohrabacher, one of the absolute worst Trumpist in Congress. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 11, 2018, 02:39:43 AM I love how conservatives keep referring to the counting of actual votes as "finding" new votes. They need to stop bashing education and go back and get some more of it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 11, 2018, 02:43:45 AM Funny, when Democrats lose: "You lost, get over it." When Republicans lose: "Voter fraud! Finding votes! They stole the election!" Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 11, 2018, 02:44:07 AM Funny, when Democrats lose: "You lost, get over it." When Republicans lose: "Voter fraud! Finding votes! They stole the election!" Come and join us, we don't bite. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 11, 2018, 03:11:21 AM Thinking about AZ. If today was a mixture of batch A and B. And Batch A had party ID even and it's been Sinema +15 or so and batch B is supposedly R+10 in party ID. Today's batch was Sinema +7, so assuming batch A mixed in was again Sinema +15 what would've batch B been for it to end up at +7 overall?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 11, 2018, 03:18:19 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 11, 2018, 05:44:18 AM Top 10:
98.14% - Montana 94.89% - Georgia 94.28% - North Dakota 92.37% - Texas 91.64% - South Dakota 91.06% - Hawaii 91.01% - Oregon 89.26% - Tennessee 88.60% - Wisconsin 87.84% - Minnesota () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: User157088589849 on November 11, 2018, 06:15:20 AM With remaining ballots in Arizona threshold is around 1,165,000 votes.
Sinema needs to break 117k votes (McSally needs 148k votes) from remaining 264k ballots. 198k ballots in Maricopa and 36.6k in Pima Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: CookieDamage on November 11, 2018, 06:24:37 AM Top 10: 98.14% - Montana 94.89% - Georgia 94.28% - North Dakota 92.37% - Texas 91.64% - South Dakota 91.06% - Hawaii 91.01% - Oregon 89.26% - Tennessee 88.60% - Wisconsin 87.84% - Minnesota () Do you have numbers by state? I'd love to compare them to 2012 vs 2014 numbers, or 2008 vs. 2010. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Adam Griffin on November 11, 2018, 06:52:40 AM Top 10: 98.14% - Montana 94.89% - Georgia 94.28% - North Dakota 92.37% - Texas 91.64% - South Dakota 91.06% - Hawaii 91.01% - Oregon 89.26% - Tennessee 88.60% - Wisconsin 87.84% - Minnesota () Do you have numbers by state? I'd love to compare them to 2012 vs 2014 numbers, or 2008 vs. 2010. Here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PtyKTDpcNaaXtlFuFaqpcOMLlF54IgjF2_kHdYubOMg/edit?usp=sharing) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 11, 2018, 07:27:33 AM Caution for the turnout map:
Many of these numbers are not yet final. CA for example has more than 4.6 million uncounted ballots. The final turnout will only be known in early January, when the Census Bureau releases the Mid-2018 state population and 18+ estimates and the states their final "total ballots cast" reports. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 11, 2018, 08:22:37 AM Funny, when Democrats lose: "You lost, get over it." When Republicans lose: "Voter fraud! Finding votes! They stole the election!" Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 11:26:50 AM https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1061459142030827520 ^^ good point Yes but they lost a handful of senate seats so naturally that is all that matters and the election was a NIGHTMARE :] Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 11:47:26 AM ^^ oh yea, the house gains exceeded expectations, and the senate results are not that bad. but, I really hoped democrats might've at least kept MO and Indiana, for he sake of the supreme court, let hope Sinema wins Arizona, so it wouldn't be so hard to capture the senate in 2020 Yea it did suck, but I'm just being snarky cuz Democrats had a good night for once and parts of my party are somehow still despondent over it :p Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 11, 2018, 12:52:12 PM Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes? I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Devout Centrist on November 11, 2018, 01:19:02 PM Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes? I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here. If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 01:20:39 PM So today we will have updates only from Arizona. Right?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 11, 2018, 01:21:43 PM ^^ good point If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 01:21:54 PM Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes? I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here. If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else? Arizona apparently have machines from the 1980s that can only read so many ballots per day. Also, Arizona requires signatures on the ballots to be matched to signatures on the voter registration. If the signatures don't match, election officials have to contact the voters. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 11, 2018, 01:22:33 PM Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes? I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here. If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else? Don't other states count millions on election night? Oregon has entirely mail-in voting, and it seems like they are always counted almost immediately. Same more or less with Colorado. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 01:22:35 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 01:24:26 PM SoS Rep. lead down to 1,591
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 11, 2018, 01:25:15 PM ^^ good point If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number. That seems unlikely to me because, without gerrymandering, they already would have been much closer to a majority after 2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 11, 2018, 01:25:31 PM ^^ good point If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number. Absolutely. Plus Republicans had a lot of low hanging fruit in 2010 and started from a lower base at 179 seats(while Dems had 195 seats), by itself that limits the gains. The GOP went from a -11% PV margin to +7%, Dems went from -1% to around +7 or 8%. And Democrats probably would have managed to get more seats than the 2010 GOP's 242 without gerrymandering anyway. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Devout Centrist on November 11, 2018, 01:26:19 PM Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes? I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here. If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else? Don't other states count millions on election night? Oregon has entirely mail-in voting, and it seems like they are always counted almost immediately. Same more or less with Colorado. Colorado, Oregon, and Washington are all still counting ballots, too. No one is focusing on them because all of their major matchups have already been called. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 11, 2018, 01:29:42 PM Sinema gains 400 votes, now leads by 30,300 statewide, or 1.4% (49.5-48.1)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Kentuckian on November 11, 2018, 01:29:49 PM SoS Rep. lead down to 1,591 If Kyrsten Sinema, Katie Hobbs, Sandra Kennedy, and Kathy Hoffman are all elected, I might cry tears of joy. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 01:31:01 PM The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally.
Let's see how that plays out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 11, 2018, 01:35:53 PM Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes? I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here. If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else? Don't other states count millions on election night? Oregon has entirely mail-in voting, and it seems like they are always counted almost immediately. Same more or less with Colorado. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 11, 2018, 01:39:56 PM The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally. Let's see how that plays out. My guess is it will be a near tie in votes coming from Maricopa today, maybe a couple percentage points or so in favor of McSally, but not enough. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 01:43:36 PM How many Coconino votes were just tabulated ~1300 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 11, 2018, 01:43:47 PM The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally. Let's see how that plays out. Pretty sure that's been said about every Maricopa batch lately, and yet they never end up being pro-McSally. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MichaelRbn on November 11, 2018, 01:56:43 PM I wonder how Krazy Kat, Ignatz Mouse and Offisa Pup all voted in Coconino County.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 01:58:16 PM The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally. Let's see how that plays out. Pretty sure that's been said about every Maricopa batch lately, and yet they never end up being pro-McSally. Meanwhile, at McSally's campaign HQ: () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Orser67 on November 11, 2018, 01:58:27 PM At this point, I'm wondering if Sinema will end up with >50% of the vote.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 01:58:42 PM How many Coconino votes were just tabulated ~1300 Sinema lead now at 30,310. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 11, 2018, 02:00:10 PM Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes? I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here. If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else? At least in Arizona's case: for mail ballots they have to match the signatures on every one of hundreds of thousands of ballots, which is a huge undertaking. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 02:01:01 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 02:53:05 PM Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race? The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 11, 2018, 02:54:07 PM Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race? The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night. No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 02:57:40 PM Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race? The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night. No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia. Technically the legislature can assign the EVs any way they want. They just can't force presidential candidates to compete in a runoff election or anything like that. So I don't think IRV counts towards this restriction because the votes are already cast by election day. It's just tallying them up that may take longer. I think IRV would apply to the presidential race. Edit: Actually I guess states can force runoffs for presidential races? Seems to be the case, in theory (source (https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/04/presidential-election-runoff-states/)) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 02:57:44 PM Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race? The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night. No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia. That's because the GA legislature specifically removed presidential EV from the runoff law in 1968 because they wanted to make sure Wallace carried the state. It would have applied before then. It does look like the Maine law explicitly excluded presidential EV and now also excludes GEs for state-level offices due to the Maine Supreme Court's ruling. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 11, 2018, 02:59:21 PM Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race? The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night. No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia. That's because the GA legislature specifically removed presidential EV from the runoff law in 1968 because they wanted to make sure Wallace carried the state. It would have applied before then. It does look like the Maine law explicitly excluded presidential EV and now also excludes GEs for state-level offices due to the Maine Supreme Court's ruling. Right. I forgot about that. Wouldn't that have a constitutional problem if a presidential runoff were to happen because GA runoffs are held after the EC convenes though? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 11, 2018, 03:02:04 PM As a general principle, there's nothing stopping a state from adopting RCV to select presidential electors. But Maine's specific initiative excludes presidential elections.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 03:05:15 PM Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race? The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night. No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia. That's because the GA legislature specifically removed presidential EV from the runoff law in 1968 because they wanted to make sure Wallace carried the state. It would have applied before then. It does look like the Maine law explicitly excluded presidential EV and now also excludes GEs for state-level offices due to the Maine Supreme Court's ruling. Right. I forgot about that. Wouldn't that have a constitutional problem if a presidential runoff were to happen because GA runoffs are held after the EC convenes though? IDK how GA runoff dates have or haven't changed since 1968, but a modern EV runoff would have to be held in December. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 03:05:24 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 03:07:23 PM As a general principle, there's nothing stopping a state from adopting RCV to select presidential electors. But Maine's specific initiative excludes presidential elections. Uniformity really needs to be pushed for this. Thanks for the MA SC, it is overly convoluted now. Primaries, federal elections but not presidential. Pffft. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: adma on November 11, 2018, 03:09:46 PM If it wasn't for gerrymandering, Dems probably would've been a lot closer to that 63 number. That seems unlikely to me because, without gerrymandering, they already would have been much closer to a majority after 2016. Unless we go by the hypothetical of all the states "doing a Pennsylvania" at once post-2016. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 03:58:05 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 03:59:20 PM Sinema +106 It is now Sinema +30,416 Hopefully we get a call tonight. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 04:06:52 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 11, 2018, 04:18:54 PM https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1061459142030827520 ^^ good point Dems can get back to 51/49 should Nelson and Espy win, most likely 52/48 Yes but they lost a handful of senate seats so naturally that is all that matters and the election was a NIGHTMARE :] Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 04:51:25 PM When will LA update their numbers today? I want to watch Young Kim go down.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 05:23:12 PM When will LA update their numbers today? I want to watch Young Kim go down. Next update from LA county is on Tuesday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Horus on November 11, 2018, 05:49:25 PM So how many races are still uncalled?
NY-22 ME-2 UT-4 GA-7 CA-10 CA-39 CA-45 Missing any? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 11, 2018, 05:55:55 PM NJ-3 is still oddly uncalled.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 11, 2018, 06:00:35 PM AZ-SEN and FL-SEN of course.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 11, 2018, 06:01:03 PM AZ-SEN and FL-SEN of course. Both are safe D and Safe R. Stick in a fork in mcsally and Nelson Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 06:18:00 PM NJ-3 is still oddly uncalled. There are still provisionals in each county. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 06:23:07 PM Only 36K was counted in Maricopa County today.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 11, 2018, 06:24:45 PM Only 36K was counted in Maricopa County today. Have those ballots been uploaded to the state yet? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 06:26:15 PM Only 36K was counted in Maricopa County today. Have those ballots been uploaded to the state yet? 5:00 as always. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 11, 2018, 06:26:47 PM All of its supposedly going to be McSally's fabled R+10 batch. And I hate how this is starting to drag out, yesterday was supposed to be the crucial day and now it was going to be today, but 36K may not be conclusive enough to make a call.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 06:33:08 PM All of its supposedly going to be McSally's fabled R+10 batch. And I hate how this is starting to drag out, yesterday was supposed to be the crucial day and now it was going to be today, but 36K may not be conclusive enough to make a call. I agree, this is getting ridiculous. The last batch of bucket A (50K was delayed to tomorrow) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 11, 2018, 06:33:47 PM Only 36k? Really? ugh
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 06:35:26 PM All of its supposedly going to be McSally's fabled R+10 batch. And I hate how this is starting to drag out, yesterday was supposed to be the crucial day and now it was going to be today, but 36K may not be conclusive enough to make a call. She’s only winning the Election Day votes counted so far by 5.2% in Maricopa County. She needs triple that margin in all of the votes remaining. Stop worrying. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 06:39:46 PM All of its supposedly going to be McSally's fabled R+10 batch. And I hate how this is starting to drag out, yesterday was supposed to be the crucial day and now it was going to be today, but 36K may not be conclusive enough to make a call. She’s only winning the Election Day votes counted so far by 5.2%. She needs triple that in all the votes to win. Stop worrying. I feel like they can still make a call today. If not, it'll become more likely Sinema is the victor. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 11, 2018, 06:40:52 PM This is just the way AZ counts votes guys. It's nothing new. Just be happy that House control didn't come down to all these glacial California races.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 11, 2018, 06:41:31 PM All of its supposedly going to be McSally's fabled R+10 batch. And I hate how this is starting to drag out, yesterday was supposed to be the crucial day and now it was going to be today, but 36K may not be conclusive enough to make a call. She’s only winning the Election Day votes counted so far by 5.2%. She needs triple that in all the votes to win. Stop worrying. I feel like they can still make a call today. If not, it'll become more likely Sinema is the victor. I mean if McSally makes a gain out of this batch even a small one it'll be reason to wait until Monday to see if there's a larger trend. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ronnie on November 11, 2018, 06:42:05 PM Does anyone else find it funny that whenever Republican candidates are prodded or their ego is compromised in any fashion, their first reflex is always to engage in cynicism and psychological projection?
Quote The unsettled race for Georgia governor tightened over the weekend as Democrat Stacey Abrams prepared litigation to force the counting of more provisional ballots, while Republican Brian Kemp’s campaign said her refusal to concede was “a disgrace to democracy.” The clash heightened as a cache of 5,500 provisional and mail-in ballots were reported that showed Kemp’s lead over Abrams shrinking slightly to about 59,000 votes. Some came from counties that days earlier reported all votes had been tallied. https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-election-weekend-clash-over-how-many-gov-votes-are-still-uncounted/dUpaJi6Yw9NXH8NxXcovbM/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 06:42:56 PM This is just the way AZ counts votes guys. It's nothing new. Just be happy that House control didn't come down to all these glacial California races. Trump would have sent the army to Orange County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 06:48:48 PM Maricopa incoming!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 06:49:36 PM Sinema increased by 3K
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 06:50:36 PM Sinema increased by 3K But I was told to be worried because reasons! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 11, 2018, 06:50:37 PM Sinema increased by 3K I dont think it did. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 11, 2018, 06:51:24 PM AZ SOS lead down to 1,482. Fingers crossed!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 11, 2018, 06:51:52 PM It's not 7 there yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 06:52:21 PM It's not 7 there yet. AZ data guru said they were coming early Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 06:52:43 PM Is this confirmed Bucket B votes? If so, AZ-SEN is over and the Dem is favored for Secretary of State.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 06:54:08 PM Is this confirmed Bucket B votes? If so, AZ-SEN is over and the Dem is favored for Secretary of State. Yes, we are in Bucket B Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 06:54:20 PM It's not 7 there yet. Looks like the NYT got it early. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 11, 2018, 06:54:27 PM I saw a tweet that Sinema gained 3K votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 06:54:46 PM I saw a tweet that Sinema gained 3K votes. Same. If that's true, the race needs to be called for her, tonight. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 11, 2018, 06:56:42 PM I really dont think its updated yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 06:57:14 PM I really dont think its updated yet. Apparently NYT has already updated it to Sinema +33K Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 11, 2018, 06:58:08 PM I really dont think its updated yet. Apparently NYT has already updated it to a Sinema +33K Hmmmm.... Maybe the Arizona SoS site is slow. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 11, 2018, 06:58:25 PM Hobbs takes the lead for SoS by 150 votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 11, 2018, 06:58:37 PM Hobbs has the lead in the SOS race, and the AP still hasn't rescinded its call.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 06:59:01 PM NYT also has Hobbs in the lead by 50
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 11, 2018, 06:59:10 PM yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead?
I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 07:01:43 PM AZ Data Guru is confused as well... the SoS hasn't updated yet, but Politico and NYTimes have Sinema gaining about 3K
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 11, 2018, 07:02:51 PM The AZ SoS site updated, Sinema did indeed gain 3,000 votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 07:02:55 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 07:03:31 PM Call the flippin' race. McSally was supposed to be on top here. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 07:04:07 PM Maricopa dropped
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 07:04:42 PM Hobbs ahead by 150 votes, Sinema up 32,640.
This race is callable Imo. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 11, 2018, 07:05:16 PM You mean more late ballots, which have been pro Sinema this entire time, were pro Sinema again?!
I'm SHOCKED!!!! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 11, 2018, 07:06:23 PM Hobbs ahead by 50 votes, Sinema up 32,640. This race is callable Imo. SOS site says the SOS lead for Hobbs is actually 150. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ajc0918 on November 11, 2018, 07:06:40 PM Hobbs ahead by 150 votes, Sinema up 32,640. This race is callable Imo. What does the Arizona SoS do? How significant is it if she wins? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 11, 2018, 07:06:49 PM The 'R+10 ballots' has to be the biggest scam of 2018.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 07:07:41 PM LOL,
NYT still has Steve Gayner wining despite having fewer votes: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-arizona-elections.html () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 07:07:44 PM The 'R+10 ballots' has to be the biggest scam of 2018. I better see some projections tonight. Stop dragging this out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 11, 2018, 07:07:50 PM The 'R+10 ballots' has to be the biggest scam of 2018. I mean they are R+10 just the ballots for Manchin are D+20 in Logan county. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 07:10:11 PM Hobbs ahead by 150 votes, Sinema up 32,640. This race is callable Imo. What does the Arizona SoS do? How significant is it if she wins? Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 11, 2018, 07:11:03 PM Hobbs ahead by 150 votes, Sinema up 32,640. This race is callable Imo. What does the Arizona SoS do? How significant is it if she wins? Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the seat, then Hobbs will become the new governor. yeah it basically makes Az Sen 2020 Lean D coz Chemtrail kelli finally gets her chance. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 11, 2018, 07:11:57 PM Hobbs ahead by 150 votes, Sinema up 32,640. This race is callable Imo. What does the Arizona SoS do? How significant is it if she wins? Arizona has no lieutenant governor, so if Ducey were to run for the Senate in 2020, he'd be turning the governor over to the Secretary of State. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 07:12:12 PM Dave Wasserman called it for Sinema
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 11, 2018, 07:12:27 PM The AP may take their time calling the Senate race now that they've screwed up the SOS race.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 07:13:19 PM Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor. What if he appoints himself before Hobbs takes office? Will the current Republican SoS move up and stay until 2022? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 07:14:23 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 07:16:15 PM Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor. What if he appoints himself before Hobbs takes office? Will the current Republican SoS move up and stay until 2022? Probably, although I think Ducey does not get along well at all with her and wouldn't do that. Also, all but 1 of the Senate self-appointees have gone on to lose the seat. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 07:20:23 PM Seeing as it took AP five days to finally project CA-48 for Rouda, they won't project this race for Sinema until Christmas Day.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 07:20:43 PM Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor. What if he appoints himself before Hobbs takes office? Will the current Republican SoS move up and stay until 2022? Probably, although I think Ducey does not get along well at all with her and wouldn't do that. Also, all but 1 of the Senate self-appointees have gone on to lose the seat. I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 07:24:10 PM I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath. That makes sense. Tbh it happening like that did not seem right but I'd never even thought about it before so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Overall, very satisfied with the way things worked out in Arizona, all things considered. Didn't we almost flip the state House too? No, because Reagan is leaving office in January. Not that he’d do something as politically suicidal as this, but in this hypothetical scenario. The reason Hobbs winning is a big deal is because it robs the NRSC of their top 2020 Arizona Senate recruit and it puts her in an excellent position to become governor (the Arizona curse) either by ascension or election in her own right in 2022 Frankly even without that added bonus of denying them a good recruit, I'd still be overjoyed. It's a sign of progress in a state we need but also one that hasn't been too kind to us in the past. Not to mention finally being in a position to address their horrid track record on administering elections. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 11, 2018, 07:25:05 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 07:27:42 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 11, 2018, 07:28:54 PM Is Pinal county still posting today? That'll most likely wipe out Hobbs' lead.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 07:34:30 PM Is Pinal county still posting today? That'll most likely wipe out Hobbs' lead. Until Pima county drop and put her back in the lead Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Webnicz on November 11, 2018, 07:37:16 PM Gaynor would be such an awful SOS
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 11, 2018, 07:42:18 PM Gaynor would be such an awful SOS Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 07:42:48 PM I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath. That makes sense. Tbh it happening like that did not seem right but I'd never even thought about it before so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Overall, very satisfied with the way things worked out in Arizona, all things considered. Didn't we almost flip the state House too? No, because Reagan is leaving office in January. Not that he’d do something as politically suicidal as this, but in this hypothetical scenario. The reason Hobbs winning is a big deal is because it robs the NRSC of their top 2020 Arizona Senate recruit and it puts her in an excellent position to become governor (the Arizona curse) either by ascension or election in her own right in 2022 Frankly even without that added bonus of denying them a good recruit, I'd still be overjoyed. It's a sign of progress in a state we need but also one that hasn't been too kind to us in the past. Not to mention finally being in a position to address their horrid track record on administering elections. It's now 31R/29D. The Senate looks like it stayed 17R/13D, although the 17th R barely leads in an uncalled race in Maricopa. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 11, 2018, 07:45:24 PM I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath. That makes sense. Tbh it happening like that did not seem right but I'd never even thought about it before so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Overall, very satisfied with the way things worked out in Arizona, all things considered. Didn't we almost flip the state House too? State House Right now is 31 - 29 Rep, and thats mostly locked in place now. AZ House uses MMD, but you get two votes, so right now there is only one district with both a D and a R. It's mostly set because the closest Dems are in District 6 and 20 - down by 1.5 and 2K votes respectively. The closest Rep pickup is in district 28 where they are down by 1.9K, so the 31-29 gap looks solid right now. Dems right now gained 0 in state Sen, but a lot more close races there still out. 6, 17, 20, 21, and 28 are all close. Dems need +2 to tie the chamber. Right now, 28 is the closest with the dem down by 700 votes, and probably going to flip considering dems won both 28 House seats and its in Maricopa. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 11, 2018, 07:48:22 PM yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead? I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona. I strongly suspect kyl will resign and McSally will be appointed in his place. Considering the closeness of this race, two years of incumbency will make her a competitive candidate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 07:49:43 PM yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead? I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona. I strongly suspect kyl will resign and McSally will be appointed in his place. Considering the closest of this race, two years of incumbency will make her a competitive candidate. It would be fun to beat her a second time. An appointed incumbent simply doesn't have a staying power of an elected incumbent. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: windjammer on November 11, 2018, 07:53:14 PM yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead? I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona. I strongly suspect kyl will resign and McSally will be appointed in his place. Considering the closeness of this race, two years of incumbency will make her a competitive candidate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 07:53:44 PM This sounds close to a declaration of victory-
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 07:54:29 PM thanks!
It would be fun to beat her a second time. An appointed incumbent simply doesn't have a staying power of a elected incumbent. I think a big part of the advantage comes from a politician actually building out a strong campaign that is capable of winning (including fundraising networks and general expertise), and leaving a mark in the minds of the voters. This is something people appointed without ever running lack completely. In this case, McSally would have all those attributes as she ran a campaign that came close-ish to winning. Also, it's not always a big issue in the end. Iowa Gov. is an example of that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 11, 2018, 07:56:14 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 11, 2018, 07:58:55 PM Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 07:59:45 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close. Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 08:00:32 PM Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema? TBF, she probably was the only one who could have made it close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 11, 2018, 08:01:14 PM Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema? She certainly had the best chance of the three. Sinema would have obliterated either of the others, but McSally came very close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 11, 2018, 08:01:21 PM Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema? yeah because Arpaaio would have won by energizing the base. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 08:04:48 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close. Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary. 0% chance Ward doesn't jump in. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 11, 2018, 08:09:44 PM Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema? TBF, she probably was the only one who could have made it close. Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema? She certainly had the best chance of the three. Sinema would have obliterated either of the others, but McSally came very close. I agree. My statement was really referring to the ones who were 100% sure that McSaly would win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 08:12:27 PM Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 08:14:08 PM Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes. All of Pinal? Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 08:15:37 PM Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes. All of Pinal? Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point). Not sure yet, Garrett Archer is posting an update here soon. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 11, 2018, 08:16:02 PM Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes. All of Pinal? Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point). I think theres about 14,000 votes left in Pinal. But we havent had a single "bucket" from Pima today which has 36,000 votes left. Edit: Scratch that, Pinal has 7,000 votes left. https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061789579013812224 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 11, 2018, 08:16:29 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close. Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary. 0% chance Ward doesn't jump in. There are going to be a lot of Senate primaries in Arizona over the next few years. I 2020: AZ-Special (Kyl) 2022: AZ (Kyl) 2024: AZ (Sinema/McSally) Regardless of who comes out on top, there’s the possibility for a lot of turnover in the congressional delegation and statewide offices. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 08:17:29 PM Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes. All of Pinal? Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point). I think theres about 14,000 votes left in Pinal. But we havent had a single "bucket" from Pima today which has 36,000 votes left. Edit: Scratch that, Pinal has 7,000 votes left. https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061789579013812224 Pima isn't reporting again until Tuesday. Day off with the holiday tomorrow. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 11, 2018, 08:19:33 PM Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes. All of Pinal? Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point). I think theres about 14,000 votes left in Pinal. But we havent had a single "bucket" from Pima today which has 36,000 votes left. Edit: Scratch that, Pinal has 7,000 votes left. https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061789579013812224 Pima isn't reporting again until Tuesday. Day off with the holiday tomorrow. I knew that. Why did I forget? lawl. I feel like we can call this once Maricopa dumps at 7, Pima should pad her lead before it a bit. I dont think we're getting a Pima update tonight. I think they said their next update is tuesday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 11, 2018, 08:19:48 PM I'm surprised no media outlet is gonna jump on calling this, not even CNN?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 11, 2018, 08:22:20 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 11, 2018, 08:35:15 PM Not a ton from McSally territory left:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 11, 2018, 08:37:33 PM Not a ton from McSally territory left: I really don't understand why outlets aren't calling this race yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 11, 2018, 08:40:11 PM Not a ton from McSally territory left: I really don't understand why outlets aren't calling this race yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 11, 2018, 08:46:28 PM Not a ton from McSally territory left: I really don't understand why outlets aren't calling this race yet. They're probably waiting until it's almost mathematically impossible for McSally to take the lead. While it's absurd to think that she'll win the remaining Maricopa vote by 25%, they'll probably wait until she'd need to win it by 60-80% before calling the race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 11, 2018, 08:59:19 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Ward? lol. Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on November 11, 2018, 09:01:35 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot. Speaking of Gosar... anyone else love how he got savaged by that ad yet still way overperformed Martha Mcsally? There were a ton of Sinema-Gosar ads who saw that ad and were like "Yup! Still sticking w/ Gosar!" Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 09:02:31 PM Can we just take a second to briefly go over Steve Gaynor's campaign website issues page?
https://www.gaynorforsos.com/issues.aspx Quote As the state’s Chief Elections Officer, Steve will work with County election officials to ensure that county voting plans meet or exceed Federal standards and serve all voters equally. He will also work to restore Arizona’s requirement for proof of citizenship on the Arizona State form to ensure that only United States citizens vote in all elections. In recent national surveys, Arizona has scored worse than most states in election security. He will oversee changes to election security procedures to insure that Arizona’s elections are secure and brought up to “best of class” standards. [...] Several aspects of Arizona election law need to be updated and improved. Areas such as ballot harvesting, the procedures to fill vacancies and redistricting are examples. Steve will work with the legislature to update and revise these statutes. What exactly does it say about a candidate when most of the 'issues' they mention in their campaign are literally either just voter suppression measures or flat out rigging elections? Not to mention a Republican talking about "restoring confidence" in elections when they are the ones engaging in an endless assault on the integrity of our elections? They are the ones who scream voter fraud when they have no proof and no reason to believe it's happening. They are the ones screaming about "FINDING VOTES" right now when the state is simply trying to count ballots as it always does. This level of hypocrisy is on par with two-bit mobster protection rackets, where you should pay a fee less "something bad" might happen to your store. There is a mile-wide gulf between calling for independent redistricting commissions and an end to partisan gerrymandering and what Gaynor is doing, which based on the AZGOP's view of redistricting, means dismantling their commission and returning power back to the legislature so they may It's one thing for Republicans to just avoid discussing gerrymandering and/or make up the occasional lie, as it's inconvenient to talk about it when your party relies on it so much, but a whole other thing to actively campaign on rigging elections. I feel like this is something out of the Jim Crow south. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 11, 2018, 09:05:00 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Ward? lol. Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot. AG Mark Brnovich? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 11, 2018, 09:11:28 PM () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 11, 2018, 09:32:10 PM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Ward? lol. Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot. Yeah I was basically talking about weak the AZ senate bench for the GOP will be in 2020. Losing SOS just shuts down Ducey from running for senate and Mcsally probably can't win a primary despite having the best image of any congress person from Arizona. They need someoen with some name recognition otherwise Ward goes for it and wins the primary. This is probably more likely to Flip than maine 2020 although it is a bit early. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 11, 2018, 09:34:22 PM Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 11, 2018, 09:36:23 PM Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott Sad Polluiquin can't win a trump +10 most rural district in the country when most other republicans who lost were burb stomped. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 11, 2018, 09:41:07 PM Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott Sad Polluiquin can't win a trump +10 most rural district in the country when most other republicans who lost were burb stomped. "An exit poll conducted on Election Day by Fair Vote, professors at Colby College and the Bangor Daily News found that of the 15,500 people who voted for Bond and Hoar and who ranked their choices, Golden would take 93 percent of the votes." Congratulations Representative Golden! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ltomlinson31 on November 11, 2018, 10:03:43 PM ()
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wesmoorenerd on November 11, 2018, 10:04:58 PM Rudy Salas must be kicking himself right now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 11, 2018, 10:05:18 PM A small number of vote looks like it just dropped in AZ. Gaynor up 424. Might be Cochise or La Paz It was Yavapai. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wesmoorenerd on November 11, 2018, 10:06:24 PM We shouldn't have ignored that poll from Coronado. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2018, 10:07:39 PM We shouldn't have ignored that poll from Coronado. He's clearly out in 2020 unless Trump wins his CD. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 11, 2018, 10:10:29 PM We shouldn't have ignored that poll from Coronado. "poll" - lol Anyway, fantastic tightening. Hopefully there are still more ballots to count, and hopefully they are like this batch was. Maybe then it could be a shocker. I am afraid though that maybe this doesn't include anything from King County or something like that, and they are just waiting to drop the bomb on us. First get our hopes up, and then disappoint. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 11, 2018, 10:10:43 PM Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott Makes me sleep better at night. Please let Congressman Golden happen. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 11, 2018, 10:11:09 PM Actually, how many votes left to count in CA 21? Given the turnout there, even relatively small updates could be decisive. Are we sure Valadao is, actually, elected?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 11, 2018, 10:12:46 PM So Cox gained 3552 votes in 1 batch, and Valadao's lead was only 5378 to start with. It *does* sound promising, I am just afraid maybe it isn't representative. Then again, it is the CA late arriving vote, so maybe... EDIT - Well, in 2016, the Kern County part of CA-21 went 66.56% for Clinton to 28.19% for Trump, so it seems like this is about in line with the Clinton 2016 vote. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 11, 2018, 10:15:59 PM "poll" - lol Anyway, fantastic tightening. Hopefully there are still more ballots to count, and hopefully they are like this batch was. Maybe then it could be a shocker. I am afraid though that maybe this doesn't include anything from King County or something like that, and they are just waiting to drop the bomb on us. First get our hopes up, and then disappoint. The image does say Kern County, although no idea if there are also other counties they didn't mention. At this point I think it's fair to say that Democrats should make this district a top target in 2020 and just ignore the polls (that goes for the DSCC as well). Whatever polls they did do this time don't seem to be worth much, as they gave up on the district before the show even got started. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 11, 2018, 10:16:26 PM CA-21 might have about 30k votes left to count? 2012 had 116k votes, 2016 had 132k, and 2014 had 79k votes. I'm willing to bet turnout will look closer to 2012 when all is said and done, maybe a bit higher.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 11, 2018, 10:18:49 PM So Cox gained 3552 votes in 1 batch, and Valadao's lead was only 5378 to start with. It *does* sound promising, I am just afraid maybe it isn't representative. Then again, it is the CA late arriving vote, so maybe... EDIT - Well, in 2016, the Kern County part of CA-21 went 66.56% for Clinton to 28.19% for Trump, so it seems like this is about in line with the Clinton 2016 vote. The 3552 vote gain matches exactly with Cox getting 65.4% from 11,540 votes , so it does sound like 100% of this batch that just updated must be from Kern County. So Valadao will probably do better, unfortunately, in batches released from other counties. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 11, 2018, 10:19:19 PM I’m sure if Salas turns it down in 2020, Hurtado will enter. There’s no way the DCCC will sh**t the bed on this again with so few other offensive targets left Again, we first have to see if Valadao is, actually, elected in 2018 :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 11, 2018, 10:27:05 PM CA-21 might have about 30k votes left to count? 2012 had 116k votes, 2016 had 132k, and 2014 had 79k votes. I'm willing to bet turnout will look closer to 2012 when all is said and done, maybe a bit higher. I don't know where you are getting the 30K number, but if that is accurate, and if those votes (plus the 12K that just dropped from Kern) were equally distributed to the Clinton-Trump 2016 vote and broke with the same %s, that would give Cox a margin of 4,353 in total (not counting the margin gain he just got from Kern). That would mean that a best guess would be that in the end Valadao will win by ~1,024 votes, since he started with a 5,378 vote lead. Since the batch we just got did break pretty much exactly in line with the Clinton vote, a best guess as to how the rest of the votes will break is also in line with the Clinton vote is not really unreasonable. So looks like probably a narrow advantage to Valadao, but it is definitely close enough that Cox could actually win, if the votes remaining to be counted are a bit more favorable to him than that. This is definitely a seat that in retrospect, DCCC should have put more resources into, and that Dems look very well positioned to flip in 2020. Lean/Tilt Dem for 2020 at least, I would say, if Valadao almost loses with midterm Hispanic turnout. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 12, 2018, 12:23:39 AM I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 12, 2018, 12:32:56 AM I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 12, 2018, 12:36:35 AM I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 12, 2018, 01:05:21 AM Not that it means anything, but Wikipedia now labels Sinema as "Senator-elect"
Warms mah heart and soul :3 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 12, 2018, 02:57:54 AM I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment. That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!" M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close. Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary. Maybe. But who else? There are posters here far more familiar with Arizona politics than I, but it's pointed out the Congressional bench is pretty damn bad. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on November 12, 2018, 02:59:59 AM I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nhoj on November 12, 2018, 03:57:57 AM I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 12, 2018, 08:20:40 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: KingSweden on November 12, 2018, 10:37:47 AM I am going to laugh so hard if Strong Candidate™ Unbeatable Titan David Valadao loses to some random bankrupt gringo. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 12, 2018, 12:29:11 PM BTW Golden's ahead now in ME-02. Big potential ramifications if this is more 1st round votes rather then reapportioning the minor candidates, because it means Poliquin's potential lawsuit won't get off the ground.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 12, 2018, 12:32:16 PM BTW Golden's ahead now in ME-02. Big potential ramifications if this is more 1st round votes rather then reapportioning the minor candidates, because it means Poliquin's potential lawsuit won't get off the ground. Where do you see this? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 12, 2018, 12:33:06 PM BTW Golden's ahead now in ME-02. Big potential ramifications if this is more 1st round votes rather then reapportioning the minor candidates, because it means Poliquin's potential lawsuit won't get off the ground. Where do you see this? CNN seat tracker, NBC seat tracker, etc. On further inspection, their total votes are lower then NYT (not updated) but it says they updated these totals 30 min ago? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: politicallefty on November 12, 2018, 12:34:55 PM BTW Golden's ahead now in ME-02. Big potential ramifications if this is more 1st round votes rather then reapportioning the minor candidates, because it means Poliquin's potential lawsuit won't get off the ground. Is a lawsuit in that case even relevant? Ultimately, the House is the judge of its own elections. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 12, 2018, 01:12:39 PM Now Poliquin's back where he was earlier, looks like it was just a machine hiccup.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 12, 2018, 01:24:40 PM Dave Brat was apparently caught on tape saying "[Republicans in the House] lie all the time."
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 12, 2018, 01:25:18 PM Dave Brat was apparently caught on tape saying "[Republicans in the House] lie all the time." In other news, the sun comes up in the east. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 12, 2018, 01:33:49 PM Dave Brat was apparently caught on tape saying "[Republicans in the House] lie all the time." Also, water is wet and the Pope is Catholic. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 01:57:01 PM Is there any schedule about what new results we are going to get today?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 12, 2018, 02:08:47 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 12, 2018, 02:26:31 PM Is there any schedule about what new results we are going to get today? None. There‘s a holiday in the US today. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 12, 2018, 02:28:21 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 02:41:00 PM Is there any schedule about what new results we are going to get today? None. There‘s a holiday in the US today. Actually from what I read on twitter there will be updates from Maricopa and Orange today. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 12, 2018, 02:41:14 PM https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-lost-the-house-john-mccain-1541968422
Glad this dirtbag got thrown out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 12, 2018, 02:48:42 PM https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-lost-the-house-john-mccain-1541968422 Glad this dirtbag got thrown out. Isn't this the same ***hole who was campaigning in the wrong district? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 12, 2018, 02:53:31 PM https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-lost-the-house-john-mccain-1541968422 Glad this dirtbag got thrown out. Isn't this the same ***hole who was campaigning in the wrong district? Yes! He does not live in the district, and the same one who is scared when there are many black people gathered together and is sad that it is politically incorrect to refer to women as "sluts". Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 12, 2018, 02:53:50 PM https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-lost-the-house-john-mccain-1541968422 Glad this dirtbag got thrown out. Isn't this the same ***hole who was campaigning in the wrong district? Also the guy who complained about not being allowed to call women sluts. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Yank2133 on November 12, 2018, 02:58:23 PM https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-lost-the-house-john-mccain-1541968422 Glad this dirtbag got thrown out. Isn't this the same ***hole who was campaigning in the wrong district? Also the guy who complained about not being allowed to call women sluts. It is hard to see why he lost. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 12, 2018, 02:59:41 PM https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-lost-the-house-john-mccain-1541968422 Glad this dirtbag got thrown out. Isn't this the same ***hole who was campaigning in the wrong district? Also the guy who complained about not being allowed to call women sluts. It is hard to see why he lost. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 12, 2018, 03:13:48 PM The ME-2 results seem stuck at 95% with Poloquin about 2K votes ahead, what percentage do you think Golden needs with the Indies to overtake him in RCV?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 03:19:54 PM The ME-2 results seem stuck at 95% with Poloquin about 2K votes ahead, what percentage do you think Golden needs with the Indies to overtake him in RCV? According to an exit poll by a local TV station, 93% of the third party voters chose Golden as their second choice. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 12, 2018, 03:19:56 PM The ME-2 results seem stuck at 95% with Poloquin about 2K votes ahead, what percentage do you think Golden needs with the Indies to overtake him in RCV? Caveat: this is a gross oversimplification! The current results are: Poliquin 131466 Golden 129566 Bond 16500 Hoar 6933 Total 284465 A majority is 142233, so Golden would need 12667 to reach that number. Bond and Hoar together have 23433, so if ALL of their voters put alternative choices (which may not be the case), Golden would need to be ahead of Poliquin on just over 54% of them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 03:46:59 PM Pinal posted. McSally gained 503 votes and Gaynor gained 687.
They are all done with all their early/election day votes. They have 6,000 provisions they hope to process tomorrow. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 12, 2018, 03:49:20 PM Pinal posted. McSally gained 503 votes and Gaynor gained 687. They are all done with all their early/election day votes. They have 6,000 provisions they hope to process tomorrow. Are we getting more Maricopa this afternoon? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 12, 2018, 03:52:01 PM He is right Lewis.
Mcain cost them the house because they didn't get health care reform and the dems could attack them freely. Now the ACA is safe because the house is dem. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 03:58:52 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 12, 2018, 04:00:13 PM The ME-2 results seem stuck at 95% with Poloquin about 2K votes ahead, what percentage do you think Golden needs with the Indies to overtake him in RCV? Caveat: this is a gross oversimplification! The current results are: Poliquin 131466 Golden 129566 Bond 16500 Hoar 6933 Total 284465 A majority is 142233, so Golden would need 12667 to reach that number. Bond and Hoar together have 23433, so if ALL of their voters put alternative choices (which may not be the case), Golden would need to be ahead of Poliquin on just over 54% of them. Why do they need to rescan the ballots to figure out the RCV results? Why wouldn't they just count the second and third choices at the same time as the first choices? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 12, 2018, 04:03:56 PM More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 12, 2018, 04:44:11 PM More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Panda Express on November 12, 2018, 05:29:34 PM Soon we’ll be getting that fabled Maricopa bucket of votes that is so Republican to an extent never seen before by mankind
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 05:30:44 PM Soon we’ll be getting that fabled Maricopa bucket of votes that is so Republican to an extent never seen before by mankind That 36K from last night should have been part of that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 05:41:00 PM Looks like Pima did count today. Big dumps for Sinema and the Dem in the SoS race.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 05:42:12 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 12, 2018, 05:43:06 PM Hobbs up 3,645 now (was down ~1k earlier today)
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 12, 2018, 05:43:28 PM Hobbs back up by 3,645 after the Pima dump!
Was that all of Pima? Edit: That was just 16k of Pima. Something like 20k remaining there. Great sign for Hobbs. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 12, 2018, 05:43:54 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 05:44:50 PM Hobbs back up by 3,645 after the Pima dump! Was that all of Pima? No, was only 16,777 total votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 12, 2018, 05:47:19 PM Dems getting closer in CA-50. Deplorable Duncan is sweating.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 12, 2018, 05:49:36 PM Great news if you're on Team Sinema and/or Team Hobbs, especially given we haven't gotten all of the Pima results in yet. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 12, 2018, 05:50:13 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 12, 2018, 05:51:25 PM Dems getting closer in CA-50. Deplorable Duncan is sweating. isn't that a 7 point margin? I don't see ACN winning this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 12, 2018, 05:54:08 PM We're going to get a lot more of R+10!!! bucket B today than yesterday so we'll see if McSally really does gain and yesterday was just a fluke.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 05:55:50 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 05:58:36 PM 19K coming from Maricopa today.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: new_patomic on November 12, 2018, 06:08:08 PM Only 19K?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 06:11:25 PM It takes time to stuff the ballot boxes for queen Sinema. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 12, 2018, 06:12:32 PM Jesus Christ. It’s like they want to drag this out. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on November 12, 2018, 06:19:43 PM Dems getting closer in CA-50. Deplorable Duncan is sweating. isn't that a 7 point margin? I don't see ACN winning this. Yea, but Duncan Hunter was up around 55-44 on election night. It would be good to make it semi close for 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 12, 2018, 06:23:28 PM Dems getting closer in CA-50. Deplorable Duncan is sweating. isn't that a 7 point margin? I don't see ACN winning this. Yea, but Duncan Hunter was up around 55-44 on election night. It would be good to make it semi close for 2020. He won't run in 2020 or atleast another republican will make the run off. Maybe issa? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 12, 2018, 06:30:54 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 06:55:58 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cashew on November 12, 2018, 07:01:04 PM Weird that Hobbs did so much better in the Pima dump than Sinema did. Unless it was McSally’s old district in that dump Hobbs didn't have a Green candidate peeling off a bit of votes. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 07:01:06 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 12, 2018, 07:02:36 PM Sinema +38K
The networks can call this race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 12, 2018, 07:02:49 PM https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062133160085835776 I think maybe Sinema is going to win... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 07:03:54 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 07:04:17 PM https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062133160085835776 I think maybe Sinema is going to win... You think? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 12, 2018, 07:04:26 PM Hobbs up by 5,667 now also.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ltomlinson31 on November 12, 2018, 07:04:39 PM Tilt Sinema maybe. We might need 10 more Sinema leaning drops and McSally needing 101% of the remaining vote before calling this Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 12, 2018, 07:05:09 PM Maybe so! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 12, 2018, 07:06:15 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 12, 2018, 07:08:02 PM ...which means nothing, really. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 12, 2018, 07:08:20 PM Is that enough to flip the State House? Wasn't it either the State House or Senate that was 1 away from being tied? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 07:10:09 PM Is that enough to flip the State House? Wasn't it either the State House or Senate that was 1 away from being tied? Every house district elects two representatives. That just means that the Democrat got more votes than the Republican, but they were both elected. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 12, 2018, 07:10:38 PM Greg Stanton is winning 61-39.
Reminder that Republicans actually lit money on fire in this district. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 12, 2018, 07:11:43 PM Which means dems F***ed up here, since they only had one nominee instead of two (you get two votes for the MMD house districts). If they had two nominees who both won, then the house would be 30 - 30. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Devout Centrist on November 12, 2018, 07:13:00 PM Which means dems F***ed up here, since they only had one nominee instead of two (you get two votes for the MMD house districts). If they had two nominees who both won, then the house would be 30 - 30. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 12, 2018, 07:16:27 PM Which means dems F***ed up here, since they only had one nominee instead of two (you get two votes for the MMD house districts). If they had two nominees who both won, then the house would be 30 - 30. That's what happened with Republicans in 2010 when they failed to flip the Arkansas state House because they left many Democratic districts uncontested. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 12, 2018, 07:21:42 PM Why is AP dragging it out with their call?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 12, 2018, 07:24:59 PM Which means dems F***ed up here, since they only had one nominee instead of two (you get two votes for the MMD house districts). If they had two nominees who both won, then the house would be 30 - 30. That's what happened with Republicans in 2010 when they failed to flip the Arkansas state House because they left many Democratic districts uncontested. woah its the exact same situation too. Trending state towards one party. Senate Seat flips Incumbent governor wins by a landslide. Houses don't flip. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 12, 2018, 07:26:48 PM Why is AP dragging it out with their call? They were already wrong about the SoS race, so I guess they're being more cautious this time. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 12, 2018, 07:30:04 PM Why is AP dragging it out with their call? They were already wrong about the SoS race, so I guess they're being more cautious this time. They haven’t even uncalled that race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 07:35:51 PM Young Kim campaign goes full Trump. Saying any new batches that are too Democratic means there is foul play. They must know that things coming up won't look too good.
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pollster on November 12, 2018, 07:39:30 PM Young Kim campaign goes full Trump. Saying any new batches that are too Democratic means there is foul play. They must know that things coming up won't look too good. () Such a shame that a palatable Republican with a potential future is selling their soul. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 07:41:58 PM I wonder if she got tipped off about the upcoming batch of vote coming from Orange County in 18 minutes and knows it won't look great.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 07:44:32 PM AP official
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 12, 2018, 07:47:44 PM Young Kim campaign goes full Trump. Saying any new batches that are too Democratic means there is foul play. They must know that things coming up won't look too good. () Such a shame that a palatable Republican with a potential future is selling their soul. Yup. After the report about McSally being asked to allege voter fraud and refusing, it’s obvious that this statement was ghostwritten by either the RNC or the White House. Sad. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 07:49:28 PM McSally has conceded:
Edit: Oh my, read the responses. So many are saying that she's awful because she's not fighting against the "voter fraud." Really scary. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 12, 2018, 07:49:45 PM WaPo officially calls it. Just got the alert on my phone.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 12, 2018, 07:50:25 PM Which means dems F***ed up here, since they only had one nominee instead of two (you get two votes for the MMD house districts). If they had two nominees who both won, then the house would be 30 - 30. Does that mean anything, though? People voting Republican cast two votes, one for each R; people voting Democrat cast one vote and forfeited their second vote rather than vote R. If there were 2 Dems, wouldn't each have gotten a little more than a quarter of the vote? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 12, 2018, 07:52:06 PM It means that if there had been 2 dems running we likely would have picked up a seat there.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 12, 2018, 07:52:07 PM McSally has conceded: McSally deserves some credit for losing graciously and not drinking the Republican voter fraud Kool-Aid. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 12, 2018, 07:54:24 PM Yeah, it's a low standard at this point, but you've gotta give McSally some respect for not jumping on the psychotic nutjob train like Trump, Scott, Kim, Poliquin, etc.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 12, 2018, 07:55:16 PM Yeah, it's a low standard at this point, but you've gotta give McSally some respect for not jumping on the psychotic nutjob train like Trump, Scott, Kim, Poliquin, etc. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 12, 2018, 07:58:22 PM Did they retract SOS Is it me or have there been way more retractions this cycle than normal? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: YE on November 12, 2018, 07:58:47 PM Yeah, it's a low standard at this point, but you've gotta give McSally some respect for not jumping on the psychotic nutjob train like Trump, Scott, Kim, Poliquin, etc. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 08:00:36 PM Kim's lead narrowed .4% in Orange County.
Walters is only up .4% now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 12, 2018, 08:01:46 PM Did they retract SOS Is it me or have there been way more retractions this cycle than normal? Its a sign that the old assumptions are breaking down, and a new system arriving on the scene. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 12, 2018, 08:02:48 PM Walters is almost surely going to lose now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 12, 2018, 08:04:33 PM Walters now leads by 1k votes, Kim by just under 2k.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 12, 2018, 08:05:19 PM Did they retract SOS Is it me or have there been way more retractions this cycle than normal? Its a sign that the old assumptions are breaking down, and a new system arriving on the scene. More than about demographics, I think it's true about how votes are counted in general. A lot more ballots are being counted days after the election, and a lot of "100% reporting" precincts are being misleading. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 12, 2018, 08:08:46 PM Walters now leads by 1k votes, Kim by just under 2k. My guess is Cisneros will take the lead whenever Los Angeles County drops tomorrow. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 12, 2018, 08:09:48 PM Victory speech incoming Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 12, 2018, 08:35:53 PM Kim's lead narrowed .4% in Orange County. Walters is only up .4% now. Where are people getting these numbers? NYT still has Walters up 1% and Kim up 1.4%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 12, 2018, 08:36:45 PM Kim's lead narrowed .4% in Orange County. Walters is only up .4% now. Where are people getting these numbers? NYT still has Walters up 1% and Kim up 1.4%. NYT is Slow, sometimes for better, sometimes for worse. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: OneJ on November 12, 2018, 08:45:31 PM Kim's lead narrowed .4% in Orange County. Walters is only up .4% now. Where are people getting these numbers? NYT still has Walters up 1% and Kim up 1.4%. From this Twitter page. The SOS page seems behind rn. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 12, 2018, 08:46:58 PM McSally has conceded: https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152 McSally deserves some credit for losing graciously and not drinking the Republican voter fraud Kool-Aid. Agreed, although it is sad that it has come to a point that this is at all unusual or unexpected. But respect to McSally anyway. She was a good candidate running in the face of a Dem wave and the alternative Rs would have definitely lost by more. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 12, 2018, 08:52:41 PM McSally has conceded: https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152 McSally deserves some credit for losing graciously and not drinking the Republican voter fraud Kool-Aid. Agreed, although it is sad that it has come to a point that this is at all unusual or unexpected. But respect to McSally anyway. She was a good candidate running in the face of a Dem wave and the alternative Rs would have definitely lost by more. I think mitch at this point just wished she lost the primary to Ward. Now you will get Ward winning the primary unless Ducey runs and then the RGA throws a fit over giving the governorship and possibily the legislature away in 2020 making Arizona a dem trifecta. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: South Dakota Democrat on November 12, 2018, 08:53:42 PM Is it just me or is Sinema insanely attractive?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 12, 2018, 08:55:41 PM Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 12, 2018, 08:57:42 PM More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes. I don’t have exact numbers, but it has been getting tighter. I’d lean yes to your question. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 96FJV on November 12, 2018, 08:58:03 PM Is it true Kyl is only serving till the end of this year? If so, McSally could be in the senate after all.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 12, 2018, 09:00:01 PM Is it true Kyl is only serving till the end of this year? If so, McSally could be in the senate after all. I'd bet on it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 2016 on November 12, 2018, 09:14:52 PM Speaker Pelosi? Not so fast!
I kinda knew this would happen. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ebsy on November 12, 2018, 09:18:36 PM I doubt the rule change goes through, does not have much support within the caucus.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 09:19:03 PM Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020. The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump. That's why she lost. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 12, 2018, 09:19:19 PM Speaker Pelosi? Not so fast! I kinda knew this would happen. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Storr on November 12, 2018, 09:22:20 PM Speaker Pelosi? Not so fast! I kinda knew this would happen. I don't doubt there's some people that want a newer face as Speaker. The problem is who? There doesn't seem to be an alternative being put forth. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 12, 2018, 09:31:11 PM Speaker Pelosi? Not so fast! I kinda knew this would happen. I don't doubt there's some people that want a newer face as Speaker. The problem is who? There doesn't seem to be an alternative being put forth. Personally I'm a big fan of the "Beto for Speaker" idea. And I usually abhor pie-in-the-sky Democratic fantasies. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 12, 2018, 09:43:01 PM Kyrsten of the House Sinema, the First of Her Name, The Unbeaten, Queen of the Mohave, the Arizonans and her citizens, Queen of Phoenix, Khaleesi of the Desert, Protector of the Realm, Lady Regnant of the Seven Kingdoms, Breaker of Chains and Mother of Senators
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 12, 2018, 09:46:25 PM Kyrsten of the House Sinema, the First of Her Name, The Unbeaten, Queen of the Mohave, the Arizonans and her citizens, Queen of Phoenix, Khaleesi of the Desert, Protector of the Realm, Lady Regnant of the Seven Kingdoms, Breaker of Chains and Mother of Senators Didn’t the Lemony Snicket books have a King of Arizona? I guess they have a queen now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 09:51:07 PM Kyrsten of the House Sinema, the First of Her Name, The Unbeaten, Queen of the Mohave, the Arizonans and her citizens, Queen of Phoenix, Khaleesi of the Desert, Protector of the Realm, Lady Regnant of the Seven Kingdoms, Breaker of Chains and Mother of Senators So lost Mohave by a lot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 12, 2018, 09:55:06 PM Personally I'm a big fan of the "Beto for Speaker" idea. And I usually abhor pie-in-the-sky Democratic fantasies. It's an idea, but it would probably ruin his future political prospects, given the toxicity of the Speakership. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 12, 2018, 09:57:16 PM Just let Pelosi have it. Speaker isn't the same as running for President, congressional leaders don't need to be popular(look at Mitch McConnell, everyone hates him but he's good at his job). She is the best by far, she has a proven record and you don't want to put up a lightweight against McConnell and Trump. I had somewhat bought into the Pelosi being a liability line, but the Democrats won the election anyway, and Pelosi will probably retire in 2021(certainly if Democrats win the House), so she is just needed to make sure this Democratic majority is put to good use. She earned it too. The Democrats shouldn't shoot themselves in the foot on Day One, Speaker Pelosi is the best outcome.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 12, 2018, 10:01:56 PM Kyrsten of the House Sinema, the First of Her Name, The Unbeaten, Queen of the Mohave, the Arizonans and her citizens, Queen of Phoenix, Khaleesi of the Desert, Protector of the Realm, Lady Regnant of the Seven Kingdoms, Breaker of Chains and Mother of Senators So lost Mohave by a lot. Shhhushh Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on November 12, 2018, 10:03:34 PM Kim's lead narrowed .4% in Orange County. Walters is only up .4% now. Where are people getting these numbers? NYT still has Walters up 1% and Kim up 1.4%. From this Twitter page. The SOS page seems behind rn. At least for my county (Riverside). They're behind by 3 vote dumps More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes. Yep. CA Secretary of State now has him leading by 4,000 votes Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 12, 2018, 10:22:44 PM Just let Pelosi have it. Speaker isn't the same as running for President, congressional leaders don't need to be popular(look at Mitch McConnell, everyone hates him but he's good at his job). She is the best by far, she has a proven record and you don't want to put up a lightweight against McConnell and Trump. I had somewhat bought into the Pelosi being a liability line, but the Democrats won the election anyway, and Pelosi will probably retire in 2021(certainly if Democrats win the House), so she is just needed to make sure this Democratic majority is put to good use. She earned it too. The Democrats shouldn't shoot themselves in the foot on Day One, Speaker Pelosi is the best outcome. This 100%. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 12, 2018, 10:26:18 PM Stephen King has called it for Golden.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 12, 2018, 10:31:48 PM More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes. I don’t have exact numbers, but it has been getting tighter. I’d lean yes to your question. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 12, 2018, 10:32:33 PM I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 10:39:18 PM I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority. You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Snipee356 on November 12, 2018, 10:43:50 PM I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority. You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes Yes. The fact that Dems+Greens got 4.5 percentage points more than the Reps is good news in this state for 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 12, 2018, 11:24:55 PM You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes I bet Arizona will be the tipping point state in the 2020 Presidential election, and there will be a Green candidate who gets just enough votes for Trump to be re-elected. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 12, 2018, 11:35:13 PM I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority. You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes I do. Even though it was close, she did end a 30-year losing streak for Democrats here, in regards to the Senate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 11:39:23 PM I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority. You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes I do. Even though it was close, she did end a 30-year losing streak for Democrats here, in regards to the Senate. I wouldn't consider that "close". The race would have to be within 0.5% Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on November 12, 2018, 11:40:18 PM Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020. The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump. That's why she lost. https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Calthrina950 on November 12, 2018, 11:41:24 PM I am glad that Arizona has broken its 30-year Republican Senatorial streak. Hopefully, Sinema reaches the 50% mark with the remaining votes, as that would leave Manchin as the only Democrat to win without an absolute majority. You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes I do. Even though it was close, she did end a 30-year losing streak for Democrats here, in regards to the Senate. I wouldn't consider that "close". The race would have to be within 0.5% Close in the sense that it was under 3%. I'm not detracting from Sinema's win, though. McSally was probably the best Republican candidate that could be nominated in Arizona this year. Ward and Arpaio would have lost by much more. Arpaio, in fact, I think would have lost by at least 15%, the margin that he lost by to Penzone two years ago. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 11:42:56 PM Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020. The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump. That's why she lost. https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate McSally won the votes on election day. She lost the early vote (by a lot). Considering that ~75% of Arizonans vote early, that exit poll is unlikely to be representative of the state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on November 12, 2018, 11:47:46 PM Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020. The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump. That's why she lost. https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate McSally won the votes on election day. She lost the early vote (by a lot). Considering that ~75% of Arizonans vote early, that exit poll is unlikely to be representative of the state. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 12, 2018, 11:51:44 PM Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020. The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump. That's why she lost. https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate McSally won the votes on election day. She lost the early vote (by a lot). Considering that ~75% of Arizonans vote early, that exit poll is unlikely to be representative of the state. I did. It said: Quote "Exit polls are surveys of a random sample of voters taken after they leave their voting location, supplemented by telephone interviews to account for absentee or early voters in many states." Telephone interviews were only supplemental. That data relied more on survey of people voting on election day. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 13, 2018, 12:54:53 AM Well, I did say some pages back that there were extremely interesting shifts in EV/ED voting habits in AZ...
Back when I was heavily looking at AZ-CD '08 SE, the Arizona Data Guru was predicting total TO raw vote numbers based upon historical data for Midterm elections.... He estimated that there were many more ballots outstanding than there actually were, but what we started to observe was that at least in this election, voters were tending to vote much more heavily early via mail, than had ever been the case for AZ CD-08. Now, we can't say that AZ CD-08 in a House SE is necessarily representative of a trend within Maricopa County writ large, when it comes to EV vs ED and when ballots are cast, and whom is favored etc, but it's pretty damn clear that the whole "Bucket A & B & Pink Conventional Wisdom (CW) from political pundits and objective observers is really looking like a giant load of bullocks.... It will be extremely interesting to examine Maricopa election results in much more extensive detail once we get a final precinct count.... Unfortunately, I only saved a few thus far from the Nov '18 GE, and hopefully some of the rest of y'all have been downloading the various daily updates, since I don't believe we will otherwise be able to look at the daily updates to examine this more fully without these datasets.... I have at least the daily updates from AZ CD-08 staged on one of my hard-drives, so would be interesting to test this further.... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: adma on November 13, 2018, 01:05:04 AM Is it just me or is Sinema insanely attractive? "I wanna live with a Sinema girl I could be happy the rest of my life With a Sinema girl" Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: user12345 on November 13, 2018, 01:15:35 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 13, 2018, 01:46:27 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. Me and my wife were just watching a snipped of her victory speech and as my wife observed the GREEN outfit was likely not accidental, especially in a State where there are a huge number of Swing / Republican Leaning Indies, that are socially Liberal, not to mention a more Left-Leaning DEM base, that she will continue to represent Socially Liberal and Progressive Anti-Militarist policies, while simultaneously pursuing progressive economic policies, while still maintaining an Independent Arizona perspective and not follow the Party Leaders on all issues.... This is a big deal in Arizona, and the 'Pubs deliberately screwed over Higher Income Voters in DEM states, and then were banking their Tax cuts for the Higher Income Voters elsewhere was going to "seal the deal in 2018".... House Results obviously indicate this created massive issues for the 'Pubs in places like Cali, etc.... In theory, this should have actually helped PUB SEN candidates in AZ and NV this year.... didn't happen.... Interesting thing about the Green Parties in Europe is that although they aren't huge fans of taxation as a means of funding Social Programs, they believe in increased Government Regulation and controls over business, as well as means to control to "race to the bottom" that Capitalist Economics has been enforcing throughout Western Democracies since the '70s.... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 13, 2018, 01:50:56 AM More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes. Yep. CA Secretary of State now has him leading by 4,000 votes Sweet Also, holy crud. Betty Yee is at 63.8% for controller. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skye on November 13, 2018, 06:01:23 AM A shame that McSally lost. I was really hoping she would win after the ED vote.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: smoltchanov on November 13, 2018, 07:02:03 AM A shame that McSally lost. I was really hoping she would win after the ED vote. I prefer Sinema. At least in House she was a genuine moderate, unlike McSally.. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 13, 2018, 07:27:30 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 13, 2018, 08:08:55 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. October 5: Kyrsten Sinema announced on Thursday that she would not support Brett Kavanaugh's nomination if she were a sitting senator. https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-kavanaugh-blasey-ford-senate-democrat-10888091 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 08:17:54 AM We can expect our first Los Angeles County update this afternoon. Doesn't look like there is an exact time.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wesmoorenerd on November 13, 2018, 08:43:04 AM We can expect our first Los Angeles County update this afternoon. Doesn't look like there is an exact time. IIRC the only major race still uncalled in LA County is CA-39. This will probably be make-or-break for Cisneros, he needs as many votes as possible from the LA County portion of the district. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 13, 2018, 09:10:29 AM Young Kim campaign goes full Trump. Saying any new batches that are too Democratic means there is foul play. They must know that things coming up won't look too good. () Such a shame that a palatable Republican with a potential future is selling their soul. Palatable? She's like a Korean James Dobson! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 13, 2018, 09:11:24 AM McSally has conceded: McSally deserves some credit for losing graciously and not drinking the Republican voter fraud Kool-Aid. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 13, 2018, 09:17:35 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 13, 2018, 10:04:35 AM RCV counting underway in ME-02
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 10:17:51 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: smoltchanov on November 13, 2018, 10:19:04 AM Quite naturally: with RCV he loses, without - wins. And no one likes to lose))) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 13, 2018, 10:21:56 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/ (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 13, 2018, 10:26:41 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/ (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/) No one gives a ****. McSally probably bought it up over a million times during the campaign and she still lost. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: smoltchanov on November 13, 2018, 10:28:25 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/ (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/) No one gives a ****. McSally probably bought it up over a million times during the campaign and she still lost. +100 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 13, 2018, 10:40:44 AM I'm skeptical/cynical about McSally. Maybe she's being nice right now because she knows she's incoming to the Senate either way.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 13, 2018, 11:00:25 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/ (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/) No one gives a ****. McSally probably bought it up over a million times during the campaign and she still lost. The idea that morality and its relevance should be dictated by who happens to have won the most recent political victory is a truly terrifying proposition. I don’t even have to risk running afoul of Godwin’s law to show this; let’s just take a moment and apply your argument to some recent political fights. “No one gives a **** about the Access Hollywood tape. Hillary probably brought it up over a million times during the campaign and she still lost.” “No one gives a **** that DeSantis is a racist. Gillum probably brought it up a million times during the campaign and he still lost.” “No one gives a **** about whether Brett Kavanaugh is an attempted rapist. The Democrats probably brought it up a million times during the hearings and he was still confirmed.” A reprehensible belief or action doesn’t automatically become good or even irrelevant just because the person who holds or committed it won an election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MasterJedi on November 13, 2018, 11:10:49 AM If they somehow get it overturned, retaliate and take the EV away from the hicks. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 13, 2018, 11:11:06 AM Even if McSally is only being nice because she wants to run again... we could do with more Republicans behaving responsibly toward Democracy even if it’s only out of self interest, because our system needs people to accept a loss gracefully because they are confident they will get their turn in the future.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 13, 2018, 11:19:34 AM If they somehow get it overturned, retaliate and take the EV away from the hicks. Given that many voters were voting tactically, as the second round of ballots will, or would be entirely undemocratic to overturn RCV without immediately calling a special election under FPTP. Letting Poliquin just take the seat because he doesn’t like the voting rules would be some Florida-level banana republic stuff. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Badger on November 13, 2018, 11:20:54 AM If they somehow get it overturned, retaliate and take the EV away from the hicks. A nice idea, but we both know the court that throws out RCV will never throw out the Electoral College. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 11:21:32 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 13, 2018, 11:23:43 AM In the unlikely event Poliquin prevails, this would open the door to doing away with Georgia's runoff, at least for federal elections. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 11:27:37 AM In the unlikely event Poliquin prevails, this would open the door to doing away with Georgia's runoff, at least for federal elections. He picked a stupid argument. Should have went with you can't do federal election law via referendum. Would have fallen into Roberts wheelhouse. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: JerryArkansas on November 13, 2018, 11:54:07 AM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/ (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/kyrsten-sinema-senate-candidate-in-2003-i-dont-care-if-people-join-taliban/amp/) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 13, 2018, 11:57:15 AM No wonder Poliquin rushed out his inevitable lawsuit. The counting is nearly done.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: fldemfunds on November 13, 2018, 11:59:59 AM In the unlikely event Poliquin prevails, this would open the door to doing away with Georgia's runoff, at least for federal elections. He picked a stupid argument. Should have went with you can't do federal election law via referendum. Would have fallen into Roberts wheelhouse. This is probably one of the only arguments available that would not border on the attorney being sanctioned for bringing frivolous suits. It has been understood that states can administer their elections how they see fit so long as voters are not disenfranchised or discriminated against. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Cashew on November 13, 2018, 12:10:40 PM Even if McSally is only being nice because she wants to run again... we could do with more Republicans behaving responsibly toward Democracy even if it’s only out of self interest, because our system needs people to accept a loss gracefully because they are confident they will get their turn in the future. That's all well and good, but that runs the risk of the media labeling her a "moderate" because of what she does or doesn't say while glossing over her voting record. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 13, 2018, 12:12:38 PM If they somehow get it overturned, retaliate and take the EV away from the hicks. Given that many voters were voting tactically, as the second round of ballots will, or would be entirely undemocratic to overturn RCV without immediately calling a special election under FPTP. Letting Poliquin just take the seat because he doesn’t like the voting rules would be some Exactly. There was no FPTP election run in Maine, period. Giving the seat to Poliquin would be appointing him without an election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 12:18:36 PM If they somehow get it overturned, retaliate and take the EV away from the hicks. Given that many voters were voting tactically, as the second round of ballots will, or would be entirely undemocratic to overturn RCV without immediately calling a special election under FPTP. Letting Poliquin just take the seat because he doesn’t like the voting rules would be some Exactly. There was no FPTP election run in Maine, period. Giving the seat to Poliquin would be appointing him without an election. Agreed, if they are so against RCV, the only other alternative would be to call a new election. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 13, 2018, 12:31:46 PM If they somehow get it overturned, retaliate and take the EV away from the hicks. Given that many voters were voting tactically, as the second round of ballots will, or would be entirely undemocratic to overturn RCV without immediately calling a special election under FPTP. Letting Poliquin just take the seat because he doesn’t like the voting rules would be some Exactly. There was no FPTP election run in Maine, period. Giving the seat to Poliquin would be appointing him without an election. Agreed, if they are so against RCV, the only other alternative would be to call a new election. I mean, they would have hard time getting a decent political scientist to testify otherwise. This is not a partisan issue in any sense: this is basic intellectual consistency. Strictly speaking, there should be some sort of a rule that suits like this should be filed before the election: or, at least, some sort of a claim should be made beforehand. The guy agreed to participate in an election conducted by these rules: this should close the book on this. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 13, 2018, 12:43:53 PM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. It's better for the future of the Democratic party for someone who said "Let's ****ing do this" when talking about stripping protections for pre-existing conditions from people's health care to be elected? Then McSally has basically lied about that vote and quote for the past year. It's Sinema who is unprincipled? Judging Sinema off a dismissive comment from 15 years ago (Sinema: "Fine. I don’t care if you want to do that, go ahead." OMG...SHE LOVES THE TALIBAN SO MUCH) and calling McSally a better woman while ignoring her unprincipled flip flops is rich. Sinema isn't perfect. I hope she pulls a Gillibrand. But what a weird thing to harp on,especially while inventing a quote while acting as the morality police for the Democratic party. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 13, 2018, 12:50:38 PM Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 13, 2018, 01:26:37 PM Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black. What's significant about her being black? It would be weird if she were green-skinned, but the odds are very high she'd have been white if she weren't African-American, and what's interesting about that? Lots of Americans have last names which are colors: Green(e), Brown, Black, and White are common. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 13, 2018, 01:28:43 PM Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black. Did you expect her to be green? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 13, 2018, 01:29:40 PM Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black. What's significant about her being black? It would be weird if she were green-skinned, but the odds are very high she'd have been white if she weren't African-American, and what's interesting about that? Lots of Americans have last names which are colors: Green(e), Brown, Black, and White are common. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: pppolitics on November 13, 2018, 01:29:50 PM Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black. Did you expect her to be green? I thought she came from Mars. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 13, 2018, 01:32:35 PM Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black. What's significant about her being black? It would be weird if she were green-skinned, but the odds are very high she'd have been white if she weren't African-American, and what's interesting about that? Lots of Americans have last names which are colors: Green(e), Brown, Black, and White are common. The thing is, that may be a stereotype, but it's not true. I mean, also, Jill Stein isn't full of beer, but that's not that interesting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 13, 2018, 01:51:40 PM Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black. What's significant about her being black? It would be weird if she were green-skinned, but the odds are very high she'd have been white if she weren't African-American, and what's interesting about that? Lots of Americans have last names which are colors: Green(e), Brown, Black, and White are common. The thing is, that may be a stereotype, but it's not true. I mean, also, Jill Stein isn't full of beer, but that's not that interesting. And neither is Idaho's governor an otter. We won't even discuss their senior Senator... :) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 13, 2018, 02:08:47 PM So when are we going to get the ME-2 redistribution?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 13, 2018, 02:08:49 PM Poliquin knows he’s doomed Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 13, 2018, 02:19:03 PM Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party. She really, really, really isn’t. I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost. Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan. Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong). That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party. It's better for the future of the Democratic party for someone who said "Let's ****ing do this" when talking about stripping protections for pre-existing conditions from people's health care to be elected? Then McSally has basically lied about that vote and quote for the past year. It's Sinema who is unprincipled? Judging Sinema off a dismissive comment from 15 years ago (Sinema: "Fine. I don’t care if you want to do that, go ahead." OMG...SHE LOVES THE TALIBAN SO MUCH) and calling McSally a better woman while ignoring her unprincipled flip flops is rich. Sinema isn't perfect. I hope she pulls a Gillibrand. But what a weird thing to harp on,especially while inventing a quote while acting as the morality police for the Democratic party. Some of us are sometimes in a rush when we post here b/c we actually have lives and don’t always get every exact word right when we’re posting a quote from memory, but yes, Sinema said “I don’t care” if Americans join the Taliban to fight U.S. soldiers and actively opposed the war on terror. Because that’s soooooooo much better ::) I never said McSally was a principled individual; tbh, I don’t like her at all. Both her and Sinema are flip-floppers, although Sinema has the ideological consistency of Donald Trump, so she’s a bit worse. And say what you will, McSally actually served in the military instead of going around spewing nonsense about a non-violent response to 9/11 (I.e. no remotely meaningful response). Sinema changes positions and ideologies like a snake shedding its skin and I think we both know that you’d be singing a very different tune if Sinema were a Republican. As for the rest of your post, strangely enough I don’t care whether or not I have the approval of some random Atlas Democratic hack. Protip: Writing in all caps, doesn’t make your argument stronger; it just makes you look unhinged. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 02:47:42 PM McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 13, 2018, 02:49:39 PM McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left. The fair districts amendment has fallen behind :( Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 02:52:00 PM McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left. The fair districts amendment has fallen behind :( Hopefully Salt Lake pushes that back up and over. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 13, 2018, 03:05:25 PM Protip: Writing in all caps, doesn’t make your argument stronger; it just makes you look unhinged. https://www.factcheck.org/2018/10/sinemas-taliban-comment-in-context/ i apologize to the forum for getting into it and coming in hot, but the repeated mischaracterization of this interview is among the many reasons that mcsally lost and it seems strange to keep trying to reposition morale outrage. and if a democrat was using words games in similar ways against republicans, i would think it equally stupid and have thought so when done the countless times by both parties. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 13, 2018, 03:08:10 PM McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left. The fair districts amendment has fallen behind :( Hopefully Salt Lake pushes that back up and over. Stephen Wolf thinks it will narrowly fail when all is said and done. I don't think it really matters in the end. It was only an initiated statute and the legislature could have repealed it, and given that Congressional repercussions of not doing so, it's easy to see them gutting it or repealing entirely. But maybe it's worth trying again in 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 13, 2018, 03:13:16 PM Bruce Poliquin currently embarrassing himself:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 13, 2018, 03:14:33 PM Yeet! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 13, 2018, 03:17:45 PM And while Bruce whines...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 13, 2018, 03:55:51 PM I mean, the appeal will be thrown out just like the first suit was. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 13, 2018, 04:08:25 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 13, 2018, 04:11:22 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... Jon Ossoff would also like a word. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 2016 on November 13, 2018, 04:16:22 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 13, 2018, 04:18:16 PM Poliquin looks like a dingus. Now he's acting like a dingus.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 13, 2018, 04:21:05 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 13, 2018, 04:31:38 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. Actually, people who voted third party, but put Golden as their second choice, above Poliquin, will decide the election. Thus, Golden will beat Poliquin fair and square among those who didn't put either one as their first choice. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 13, 2018, 04:32:32 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. I have this joker on ignore, so maybe you should ask him what the flying fyck he means when he says that a computer will decide the race. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 2016 on November 13, 2018, 04:32:43 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. LOL, imagine you were running in ME-2. Do you really want your Race decided by a Computer? The big Difference is: Runoffs ARE constitutional, Ranked-Choice Voting isn't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 13, 2018, 04:33:28 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. LOL, imagine you were running in ME-2. Do you really want your Race decided by a Computer? The big Difference is: Runoffs ARE constitutional, Ranked-Choice Voting isn't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 13, 2018, 04:33:41 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. A computer decides almost every race nowadays. It's just a matter of how the computer goes about doing that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 13, 2018, 04:35:03 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. LOL, imagine you were running in ME-2. Do you really want your Race decided by a Computer? The big Difference is: Runoffs ARE constitutional, Ranked-Choice Voting isn't. Imagine if you were writing in English: would you want your statements to be understood in English? The thing is: you are writing in the language that looks like English, but is, actually, not Engliish because it is English. And that is so because I say so. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 2016 on November 13, 2018, 04:35:23 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. LOL, imagine you were running in ME-2. Do you really want your Race decided by a Computer? The big Difference is: Runoffs ARE constitutional, Ranked-Choice Voting isn't. No, they ain't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 13, 2018, 04:36:13 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. I have this joker on ignore, so maybe you should ask him what the flying fyck he means when he says that a computer will decide the race. I have him on ignore too (I took everyone off ignore for Election Night, but it didn't take long for him to get back on) but his arguments in the quotes are laughable. RCV is just an efficient way of implementing a runoff; in fact, an alternative name for it is "Instant Runoff Voting". Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 13, 2018, 04:36:18 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. I have this joker on ignore, so maybe you should ask him what the flying fyck he means when he says that a computer will decide the race. What he has in mind is that he is an idiot and he wants all of us to have no doubt about that. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 13, 2018, 04:36:55 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. LOL, imagine you were running in ME-2. Do you really want your Race decided by a Computer? The big Difference is: Runoffs ARE constitutional, Ranked-Choice Voting isn't. Quote LOL, imagine you voted using a voting machine. Do you really want your Race decided by a Computer? The big Difference is: paper ballots ARE constitutional, voting machines aren't. ^You could strawman your way into any alteration of the voting system by that logic. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: cvparty on November 13, 2018, 04:37:46 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. LOL, imagine you were running in ME-2. Do you really want your Race decided by a Computer? The big Difference is: Runoffs ARE constitutional, Ranked-Choice Voting isn't. No, they ain't. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Holmes on November 13, 2018, 04:38:13 PM *feeds scantron ballots to be counted in the machines*
"Computers are deciding this election." Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 13, 2018, 04:38:16 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. A computer decides almost every race nowadays. It's just a matter of how the computer goes about doing that. Plus, it's not the computer "deciding". The voters are deciding; in this case, the voters for candidates that didn't finish in the top two have the ability to express their next choice(s) -- which is exactly the same thing that a post-election runoff does. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 13, 2018, 04:41:41 PM There's around 40K votes left to count Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 13, 2018, 04:45:06 PM I’m definitely not a fan of ranked choice voting. But Poliquin knew the rules of the game.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RI on November 13, 2018, 04:47:54 PM A properly designed rank-choice voting system should take maybe ten seconds to reallocate second choices.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 13, 2018, 04:48:31 PM I’m definitely not a fan of ranked choice voting. But Poliquin knew the rules of the game. You could also say all the people voting third party did too and taking out RCV would be a disservice to them. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tartarus Sauce on November 13, 2018, 04:50:42 PM McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left. The fair districts amendment has fallen behind :( Hopefully Salt Lake pushes that back up and over. Stephen Wolf thinks it will narrowly fail when all is said and done. I don't think it really matters in the end. It was only an initiated statute and the legislature could have repealed it, and given that Congressional repercussions of not doing so, it's easy to see them gutting it or repealing entirely. But maybe it's worth trying again in 2020. Wouldn't it just be easier to give the Democrats a Salt Lake City anchored district and be done with it? Salt Lake City isn't even in the 4th district and it looks like McAdams is going to win anyway. The gerrymander failed, and they'll have to add a 5th seat in the next round of redistricting. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 13, 2018, 04:52:52 PM KAPUTER REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 13, 2018, 04:53:05 PM McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left. The fair districts amendment has fallen behind :( Hopefully Salt Lake pushes that back up and over. Stephen Wolf thinks it will narrowly fail when all is said and done. I don't think it really matters in the end. It was only an initiated statute and the legislature could have repealed it, and given that Congressional repercussions of not doing so, it's easy to see them gutting it or repealing entirely. But maybe it's worth trying again in 2020. Wouldn't it just be easier to give the Democrats a Salt Lake City anchored district and be done with it? Salt Lake City isn't even in the 4th district and it looks like McAdams is going to win anyway. The gerrymander failed, and they'll have to add a 5th seat in the next round of redistricting. No, Colorado and probably Arizona are adding seats, not Utah. I really doubt the Utah GOP would give up the seat willingly. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 13, 2018, 04:57:21 PM I don't think Utah is projected to get a 5th seat yet.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 13, 2018, 04:59:55 PM Hearing scheduled for 9 AM tomorrow. Judge is a Trump appointee.
Dunlap has stated that if the court rules that RCV is unconstitutional, the entire election will be thrown out and there will be special election, which Jared Golden will win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roblox on November 13, 2018, 05:00:10 PM Am I the only one who was a bit surprised to see Brian Fitzpatrick winning? I wasn't shocked, and I knew Wallace was a weak candidate, but I sort've expected Wolf/Casey Coattails to pull him over the line. In any case, this should be a top target in 2020.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Politician on November 13, 2018, 05:00:59 PM Hearing scheduled for 9 AM tomorrow. Judge is a Trump appointee. Dunlap has stated that if the court rules that RCV is unconstitutional, the entire election will be thrown out and there will be special election, which Jared Golden will win. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Brittain33 on November 13, 2018, 05:03:09 PM Am I the only one who was a bit surprised to see Brian Fitzpatrick winning? I wasn't shocked, and I knew Wallace was a weak candidate, but I sort've expected Wolf/Casey Coattails to pull him over the line. In any case, this should be a top target in 2020. It surprised me too. Remember polls in PA-7 showing Wild up by high teens, and polls with PA-11 competitive? But I guess it makes sense if you think about how rate of college education is lower in Lower Bucks than in other suburban counties. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tartarus Sauce on November 13, 2018, 05:04:32 PM McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left. The fair districts amendment has fallen behind :( Hopefully Salt Lake pushes that back up and over. Stephen Wolf thinks it will narrowly fail when all is said and done. I don't think it really matters in the end. It was only an initiated statute and the legislature could have repealed it, and given that Congressional repercussions of not doing so, it's easy to see them gutting it or repealing entirely. But maybe it's worth trying again in 2020. Wouldn't it just be easier to give the Democrats a Salt Lake City anchored district and be done with it? Salt Lake City isn't even in the 4th district and it looks like McAdams is going to win anyway. The gerrymander failed, and they'll have to add a 5th seat in the next round of redistricting. No, Colorado and probably Arizona are adding seats, not Utah. I really doubt the Utah GOP would give up the seat willingly. I was confused then, I thought Utah was on track to gain another seat. I guess they won't do so willingly and it shouldn't be expected, but willingly is they key word here. They might not have a choice by the time redistricting comes around again for the 2030s. The Democrat is winning a seat that doesn't even include Salt Lake City proper. I believe Salt Lake County is trending Democratic at a faster rate than what recent elections indicate. Between Romney running in 2012, the third vote split with McMullin in 2016, and Romney running for the Senate seat this year, a deep blue tint has been difficult to detect. The results in the 4th point to a much greater potential underlying trend that could lead to the the county eventually becoming a Democratic vote sink. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 13, 2018, 05:04:39 PM In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that... You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff. No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat. I have this joker on ignore, so maybe you should ask him what the flying fyck he means when he says that a computer will decide the race. I have him on ignore too (I took everyone off ignore for Election Night, but it didn't take long for him to get back on) but his arguments in the quotes are laughable. RCV is just an efficient way of implementing a runoff; in fact, an alternative name for it is "Instant Runoff Voting". If this were an "instant" run-off, we'd have the run-off results at the same time as the first-place count. Why don't they count the second and third place votes at the same time as the first-place votes???? I cannot fathom why this wasn't calculated on election night, at least as an estimate. It would seem so much more legitimate. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: psychprofessor on November 13, 2018, 05:05:06 PM the way Poliquin is handling RCV is exactly the same way R's would attack winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college...everyone knew the rules ahead of time but don't like the outcome
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 05:06:25 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 13, 2018, 05:15:58 PM Wow not great. Mia might win this
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 05:23:03 PM Wow not great. Mia might win this Depends on whats left. Will be funny though if Love pulls it out after Trump bad mouthed her. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 05:28:45 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 13, 2018, 05:29:36 PM How much is left to count in Utah county? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 13, 2018, 05:30:32 PM Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before.
https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 05:41:46 PM Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/ https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake County. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake County, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake County by about 6 points. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 2016 on November 13, 2018, 05:44:37 PM Wow not great. Mia might win this In the latest StLC Update McAdams GAINED 5,059 Love GAINED 4,722 The Votes came from a Democratic Stronghold. McAdams is TOAST. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 13, 2018, 05:45:48 PM I await Republicans claiming that the Republican Party of Utah is guilty of voter fraud and "finding" votes for Love.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 05:50:50 PM Wow not great. Mia might win this In the latest StLC Update McAdams GAINED 5,059 Love GAINED 4,722 The Votes came from a Democratic Stronghold. McAdams is TOAST. Its far too soon to be saying McAdams is toast(althought I doubt you care). It was definitely a disappointing Salt Lake County dump today, but who knows what the ballots will look like tomorrow. It'll definitely be close one way or the other. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 13, 2018, 05:51:27 PM Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/ https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points. Salt Lake City isn't in the district. It's the southwestern part of Salt Lake County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 05:52:08 PM Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/ https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points. Salt Lake City isn't in the district. I meant Salt Lake County, sorry. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 13, 2018, 05:54:01 PM Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/ https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points. Wow not great. Mia might win this In the latest StLC Update McAdams GAINED 5,059 Love GAINED 4,722 The Votes came from a Democratic Stronghold. McAdams is TOAST. The Salt Lake County update was not really that disappointing for McAdams. It could have been better, but he's still on track to win even if that result is repeated at all remaining counts in SLC. McAdams is currently ahead by about 1,350 votes. If Love wins 75% of the 5,000 remaining Utah County votes, as she did in the latest batch, she'd gain a net of 2,500 votes and lead by 1150 votes. If McAdams then wins 53% of the 30,000 remaining SLC votes, as he did in the latest batch, he'd gain a net of 1,800 votes and lead by 650 votes. (There might still be a few rural votes out but not more than net 200 votes or so for Love.) So McAdams is still favored, albeit very narrowly and the race will probably go to a recount. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 13, 2018, 05:59:36 PM You dipsh**t you realize most of Utah County isn’t even in the 4th right Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 13, 2018, 06:01:22 PM I'd think Love wins this, but really all it would take is one good batch for McAdams to come in to throw the whole thing to him.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 13, 2018, 06:03:05 PM I never got why they thought McAdams was favored so much.
Maybe they know which SLC precincts are out? Idk Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 06:04:11 PM The next Salt Lake and Utah County updates are on Friday, so plenty of time to speculate.......lol.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 06:09:16 PM Well if Utah County only has 5000 ballots left to count, only like 25% or so of that is going to be in UT-4 if it’s proportional There are 32,000 ballots left from Utah County, only 5,000 of which are in UT-4. https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062480549401382912 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 13, 2018, 06:10:34 PM wait so how much left in the SLC of utah 4th?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 13, 2018, 06:11:25 PM Well if Utah County only has 5000 ballots left to count, only like 25% or so of that is going to be in UT-4 if it’s proportional There are 32,000 ballots left from Utah County, only 5,000 of which are in UT-4. https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062480549401382912 If that’s true, then winning what’s out in Utah by 50 would put her up by just over 1K. McAdams should be able to erase that with what’s left in SL. But who knows at this point. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 06:21:25 PM I'd probably prefer to be McAdams over Love right now with what votes are left. But McAdams is already in Washington D.C with the rest of the freshmen congress, that seems premature with how close this race is.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 13, 2018, 06:24:58 PM I'd probably prefer to be McAdams over Love right now with what votes are left. But McAdams is already in Washington D.C with the rest of the freshmen congress, that seems premature with how close this race is. I'm pretty sure that happens all the time in close races. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 13, 2018, 06:29:50 PM What are you people doing chatting about this race? We need to fan out across UT-04 to find votes for McAdams!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 13, 2018, 06:31:15 PM I'd probably prefer to be McAdams over Love right now with what votes are left. But McAdams is already in Washington D.C with the rest of the freshmen congress, that seems premature with how close this race is. I'm pretty sure that happens all the time in close races. Yeah, it’s 100% normal. Ami Bera (my Rep) went in 2012 before his race was officially called for him. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 13, 2018, 06:57:01 PM Any news about when/how many vote dumps we're getting from California today?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 13, 2018, 07:06:56 PM Any news about when/how many vote dumps we're getting from California today? I believe LA County has been mentioned as dumping today - dump should have major implications on Cisneros-Kim (CA-39) Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 13, 2018, 07:07:03 PM Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020. The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump. That's why she lost. True. And to make matters worse it came off as phony like with Ed Gillespie. It just goes to show that embracing Trump only sometimes works, depending on your state. That same development would also explain Dean Heller's defeat. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 13, 2018, 07:15:31 PM Any news about when/how many vote dumps we're getting from California today? I believe LA County has been mentioned as dumping today - dump should have major implications on Cisneros-Kim (CA-39) Thanks, I was sure there were dumps scheduled in LA, but couldn't find any further info on the SOS website. I thought I remembered 5pm, but I think that's just a holdover from the daily releases in AZ. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 13, 2018, 07:27:04 PM Sac County dumped about
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 13, 2018, 07:34:12 PM How is AZ SoS looking now?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Ronnie on November 13, 2018, 07:35:51 PM Things don't portend well for Young Kim after the latest dump:
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on November 13, 2018, 07:38:19 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 07:39:21 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County? The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on November 13, 2018, 07:41:22 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County? The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see. John Cox (against Gavin Newsom)! I know it's the wrong thread, but this one seems to be more active. And Valadao's district isn't even in Orange County! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2018, 07:41:55 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County? Depends. The trendline is very favorable to Newson, along with the precedence from the primary, but he has to net 30K votes. Anyone know how many still remain in OC? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 07:42:52 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County? Depends. The trendline is very favorable to Newson, along with the precedence from the primary, but he has to net 30K votes. Anyone know how many still remain in OC? There are still 300K votes in the OC. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 07:44:08 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County? The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see. John Cox (against Gavin Newsom)! I know it's the wrong thread, but this one seems to be more active. And Valadao's district isn't even in Orange County! Oops! haha four hours of sleep! But anyways, from what I've seen, the trend line in OC is favorable to Newsom, and if the Dems sweep all the CDs in the county (Looking likelier by the day), then I can see Newsom winning it. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2018, 07:47:33 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County? Depends. The trendline is very favorable to Newson, along with the precedence from the primary, but he has to net 30K votes. Anyone know how many still remain in OC? There are still 300K votes in the OC. Yeah then OC probably flips before Thanksgiving or so depending on the size of the drops. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 13, 2018, 07:49:30 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County? The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see. John Cox (against Gavin Newsom)! I know it's the wrong thread, but this one seems to be more active. And Valadao's district isn't even in Orange County! No complaints here. Not sure why the other one never took off. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 07:52:54 PM When is OC expected to drop?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 07:55:16 PM When is OC expected to drop? 5 minutes Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 13, 2018, 07:55:49 PM Things don't portend well for Young Kim after the latest dump: () Where is the link for where you are getting those? It seems to be more up to date than this - https://vote.sos.ca.gov/ ? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Virginiá on November 13, 2018, 07:56:35 PM Where is the link for where you are getting those? It seems to be more up to date than this - https://vote.sos.ca.gov/ ? https://twitter.com/CATargetBot Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 13, 2018, 07:58:50 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County? The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see. To talk about this topic, even though it was a mistaken response -- there are 7,788 votes left in Kings County. There are 22,072 votes left in Kern County. Do we know what portion of Kern County is in CA-21? I think it's around 45%, which would mean about 10,000 ballots for CA-21, but hard to be certain. If we assume the 2016 Presidential figures control the remaining late ballots as they have in the recent dumps, that puts [TJ] Cox narrowly ahead of Valadao with all the votes in (ignoring Fresno since it's so small but should mildly boost Cox as well). There's also the fact that the counties apparently have very different types of ballots left - the lion's share of Kings County's remaining ballots are late VBMs, but Kern County weirdly is mostly provisionals (around 16,000, which seems like a lot to me but I think that figure is all provisionals that will be counted, i.e., does not include unverified ones). If the provisionals, which I don't think have been counted in either county yet, are even more Democratic than the late VBM ballots, which doesn't seem implausible, Cox may be favored at this point. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 08:01:33 PM PORTER TOOK THE LEAD!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 08:02:58 PM Katie Porter!!!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 08:04:43 PM Hill nearly has a 10K vote lead over Knight. CA-25 might be gone for the GOP for a while.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 13, 2018, 08:04:57 PM Congrats, Representative Porter!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 08:06:35 PM Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2018, 08:12:00 PM Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes. This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 08:12:23 PM Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes. This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night? OC and LA. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2018, 08:13:57 PM Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes. This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night? OC and LA. Okay then. CA-39 probably flips Thursday then. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 13, 2018, 08:14:02 PM Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes. This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night? OC and LA. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 13, 2018, 08:14:34 PM I haven't been following the California dumps that closely. I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County? The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see. To talk about this topic, even though it was a mistaken response -- there are 7,788 votes left in Kings County. There are 22,072 votes left in Kern County. Do we know what portion of Kern County is in CA-21? I think it's around 45%, which would mean about 10,000 ballots for CA-21, but hard to be certain. If we assume the 2016 Presidential figures control the remaining late ballots as they have in the recent dumps, that puts [TJ] Cox narrowly ahead of Valadao with all the votes in (ignoring Fresno since it's so small but should mildly boost Cox as well). There's also the fact that the counties apparently have very different types of ballots left - the lion's share of Kings County's remaining ballots are late VBMs, but Kern County weirdly is mostly provisionals (around 16,000, which seems like a lot to me but I think that figure is all provisionals that will be counted, i.e., does not include unverified ones). If the provisionals, which I don't think have been counted in either county yet, are even more Democratic than the late VBM ballots, which doesn't seem implausible, Cox may be favored at this point. The King County dump that we just got does appear to have been good for Valadao. He out-performed the Trump 2016 % substantially, winning 66% of it as compared to Trump winning 54% in Kings County in 2016. As far as Kern goes, the part of Kern that is in CA-21 voted for Clinton 66.56% to 28.19% in 2016. In 2016, there were 49,799 votes cast in the CA-21 part of Kern and 192,242 in the CA-23 part of Kern. So if you are correct that there are 16,000 votes to go in Kern, and if they are distributed between CA-21 and CA-23 in proportion to 2016 turnout, that would mean 20.6% of them are in CA-21. That would be 3292 ballots. If those broke at the same % for Cox as Clinton and the same % for Valadao as Trump + 3rd parties, that would mean about 2191 votes left in Kern for Cox and 1101 votes left in Kern for Valadao (a margin of 1090). That would cut Valadao's lead down from 2389 votes, but he would still be up by 1299 votes (as a very rough, high error estimate). Does anyone know if there are votes out from Fresno and/or Tulare in CA-21? The parts of those counties in CA-21 both voted for Clinton by 13 points in 2016, so that might help a bit as well if there are more votes there. But it does look like the outstanding votes probably have to go better for Cox than one would probably expect in order for him to win. Either there need to be more ballots left, or he needs to do better with the ballots left than Clinton did with ballots overall. It is possible there could be more ballots left, for one reason because I would bet there could be more provisionals and late ballots from the CA-21 part of Kern simply because that part is more Dem, and provisionals and late ballots tend to skew Dem. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 13, 2018, 08:14:45 PM Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes. This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night? OC and LA. Yes, both OC and LA. But I do not believe this is the last update - we still have a few days to go, or don't we? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2018, 08:15:57 PM Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes. This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night? OC and LA. Kim wins today yes. But tomorrow? What about the day after that? And the day after that? And the day after that... CA counts until December 6. Its obvious this seat is flipping in < 3 days. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 08:16:22 PM Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes. This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night? OC and LA. What don't you understand? Kim's lead is down to 711 votes after both LA and OC dropped today. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 13, 2018, 08:17:41 PM Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes. This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night? OC and LA. What don't you understand? Kim's lead is down to 711 votes after both LA and OC dropped today. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 13, 2018, 08:36:35 PM Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 13, 2018, 08:39:29 PM Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 08:40:07 PM Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 08:41:23 PM Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals. Dave Wasserman is arguing on twitter that the estimated amount of ballots left in Utah County is being underestimated. If he's correct, I'd wager Love has a better shot than some of us think. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 13, 2018, 08:41:27 PM Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals. Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 13, 2018, 08:58:15 PM Let's go Porter!
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 13, 2018, 09:02:12 PM Harder now has a 2.6% lead over Denham, or nearly 5K.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 2016 on November 13, 2018, 09:04:02 PM Wasserman is generally a pretty good Numbers Cruncher. You can almost take it to the bank certainly better than Phony Nate Silver.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 13, 2018, 09:08:20 PM Congrats, Representative Porter! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 13, 2018, 09:08:43 PM Stanton passed 60% in AZ-9
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 13, 2018, 09:24:26 PM Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.
Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: libertpaulian on November 13, 2018, 09:25:02 PM Stanton passed 60% in AZ-9 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Xing on November 13, 2018, 09:31:43 PM AP calls CA-10 for Harder over Denham
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/democrat-josh-harder-wins-us-house-seat-california-59179697 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 09:32:10 PM Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals. Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results. There’s like only 5,000 votes left in Utah County for UT-04. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 13, 2018, 09:34:45 PM Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals. Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results. There’s like only 5,000 votes left in Utah County for UT-04. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 09:45:02 PM Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals. Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results. There’s like only 5,000 votes left in Utah County for UT-04. Pretty sure Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 13, 2018, 09:46:53 PM Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals. Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results. There’s like only 5,000 votes left in Utah County for UT-04. Pretty sure So once we get those outstanding vote totals, we’ll likely have a favorite? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Person Man on November 13, 2018, 09:47:26 PM What's the end count looking like it will be at this point?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 13, 2018, 09:50:51 PM YESSSSSSS KATIE!!! <3 <3 <3
MY QUEEN IS ALIVE Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 13, 2018, 09:55:30 PM Poliquin currently getting ratioed for using the same argument pro-RCV people used but reaching an absolutely asinine conclusion from it:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: NOVA Green on November 13, 2018, 09:58:19 PM Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/ https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points. Salt Lake City isn't in the district. It's the southwestern part of Salt Lake County. Not to be pedantic, but in case it hasn't been mentioned before, there are (11) Salt Lake City precincts within the district (SLC 146, SLC148-152, SLC 156, SLC 158-160, SLC 167) that according to my SLC spreadsheet went in 2016: 3,903 HRC (60.9% D)- 1,201 DJT (18.8% R)- 1,301 OTHER (20.3%)---- According to the latest precinct file I just downloaded from Salt Lake County--- 2018: CD-04--- 4,515 McAdams (77.7% D)- 1,282 Love (22.1%)- 14 Write-IN According to my precinct neighborhood coding for Salt Lake City from NOV '16, these precincts are predominately located in the Sugar House neighborhood. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugar_House,_Salt_Lake_City Granted there are tons of unknowns here, since I wasn't saving previous precinct updates from Salt Lake County, as to where the votes have been updated and where they have not (more questions than answers), still although it only represents 3.2% of the entire Salt Lake County Vote Share posted, it is still one of the most Democratic Municipalities within the district (albeit an extremely small sliver of Salt Like City). My humble suggestion would be for those interested in seeing where within Salt Lake County votes are coming from, would be to go the Salt Lake County website, download files in an Excel format on a twice daily basis (or whenever we know results will be posted), and then we can see how these results compare with other elections and try to estimate where the outstanding vote in the district is located.... This is the type of exercise that I have undertaken for multiple locations over various elections, for those Counties that actually post precinct level data, since it helps track actuals vs. historical numbers. fwiw... most of the votes in Salt Lake County appear to be VbM vs EV or Vote Center, so we can't use that to model estimated breakdowns by outstanding votes, even if we know exactly which precincts are updating... :( Now, unfortunately although I do have a comprehensive Nov 16 Salt Lake County spreadsheet floating around, I didn't go through the entire exercise of coding by cities other than Salt Lake City, but there are some pretty extensive Republican strongholds within Salt Lake County, as well as non- Salt Lake City Democratic leaning Cities, so I wouldn't assume that these numbers would necessarily be representative of outstanding ballots within the County. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 13, 2018, 10:05:26 PM Yeah, UT-4 is gonna come down to the wire.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 13, 2018, 10:07:04 PM Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/ https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points. Salt Lake City isn't in the district. It's the southwestern part of Salt Lake County. Not to be pedantic, but in case it hasn't been mentioned before, there are (11) Salt Lake City precincts within the district (SLC 146, SLC148-152, SLC 156, SLC 158-160, SLC 167) that according to my SLC spreadsheet went in 2016: 3,903 HRC (60.9% D)- 1,201 DJT (18.8% R)- 1,301 OTHER (20.3%)---- According to the latest precinct file I just downloaded from Salt Lake County--- 2018: CD-04--- 4,515 McAdams (77.7% D)- 1,282 Love (22.1%)- 14 Write-IN Huh, guess you're right, I never noticed there is a tiny smidge of the city in the southeast there. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 10:08:02 PM Yeah, UT-4 is gonna come down to the wire. Do we know what time the drops will come in tonight? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 13, 2018, 10:13:55 PM I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count?
Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2018, 10:15:48 PM I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count? Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is. Arizona is widely expected to be a 2020 swing state... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 13, 2018, 10:17:47 PM I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count? Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is. Arizona is widely expected to be a 2020 swing state... The true nightmare scenario would be if California, Utah, and Arizona were all swing states at once. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 13, 2018, 10:20:07 PM I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count? Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is. I'm just waiting for CA and WA to implement the top-two primary for the Presidential election as well - Hillary vs. Trump in every state, except for WA and CA which are Hillary vs. Bernie and take two weeks to count. :P Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 10:20:44 PM The dam broke in California:
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 10:22:40 PM I've been following this guy from the Salt Lake Tribune for my Utah related info. We apparently got an updated count of the votes left in Utah, but they weren't specifically for UT-4. Just county numbers. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 13, 2018, 10:25:38 PM It seems like even if they're underestimating Utah County ballots remaining, it would have to be a major underestimate to make a difference; Love would need about double the margin she's projected to gain from the remaining votes in order to take the lead in the estimated count.
Of course, the SLC estimates could be off in her favor, too. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 13, 2018, 10:27:34 PM It seems like even if they're underestimating Utah County ballots remaining, it would have to be a major underestimate to make a difference; Love would need about double the margin she's projected to gain from the remaining votes in order to take the lead in the estimated count. Of course, the SLC estimates could be off in her favor, too. The last Salt Lake County drop was only 3 points for McAdams, so Love certainly has a path to victory if he keeps under performing like that. But thats a big if. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 13, 2018, 10:33:02 PM Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent. Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 13, 2018, 10:33:12 PM The dam broke in California: () Interesting history there: 1998: 1990 incumbent-protection gerrymander holds up 2000: The 1990 incumbent-protection gerrymander collapses in a Presidential year as the state changes from a swing state to a Democratic-leaning state 2002: New incumbent protection gerrymander. One new D seat but no seats change hands 2004: Incumbent-protection gerrymander holds 2006: One R seat from the 2000 incumbent-protection gerrymander flips to the Ds 2008-2010: Incumbent-protection gerrymander continues to hold other than the one prior deviation 2012: Non-partisan redistricting commission tosses the incumbent-protection gerrymander, replaces it with a map emphasizing fair and competitive districts. Ds gain many seats 2014: One more D gain in a year that is R-leaning overall nationwide, but the state moves in the opposite direction from the country 2016: No changes in a Presidential year where preferences are locked in, but lots of movement beneath the surface where previously safe R seats move close to being competitive 2018: Nearly all remaining competitive R seats flip to the Democrats, Republicans reduced to just a handful of safe seats plus Valadao 2020: ??? (likely Valadao loses, Ds hold on to everything else, based on historical patterns) 2022: New map may result in some current R or D seats becoming more competitive. Depending on who is President and their popularity, there could be significant movement one way or the other but based on the history, I wouldn't want to be a Republican... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 13, 2018, 10:35:35 PM Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent. Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 13, 2018, 10:43:00 PM Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent. Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 13, 2018, 10:50:52 PM FWIW Salt Lake Tribune reporter seems to think McAdams is still on track to win UT-04. These are his calculations:
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on November 13, 2018, 10:54:55 PM Over 3.2 million votes left to be reported. (https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf) I say reported because many of the counties in the list have not reported since election night or the early morning after. I’d guess that there’s less than 2 million that need to be “counted.”
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 10:57:01 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 13, 2018, 10:57:57 PM https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000 (https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000) Wow she's actually gonna do it! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 13, 2018, 10:58:08 PM https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000 (https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000) Oh boy. How many left to count? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 13, 2018, 10:58:24 PM https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000 (https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000) 8-O Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 11:00:28 PM https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000 (https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000) Oh boy. How many left to count? 300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Bidenworth2020 on November 13, 2018, 11:02:09 PM https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000 (https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000) Oh boy. How many left to count? 300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 11:03:50 PM https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000 (https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000) Oh boy. How many left to count? 300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded. Depending on how much Bourdeaux can gain from there, we could get to the range where a recount could legitimately effect the outcome. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr. Arch on November 13, 2018, 11:04:41 PM https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000 (https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000) Oh boy. How many left to count? 300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded. Depending on how much Bourdeaux can gain from there, we could get to the range where a recount could legitimately effect the outcome. They're not certain about how much is left either, so we don't know. A similar remaining dump would push Bourdeaux over the top. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 13, 2018, 11:05:26 PM Also, lol:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 13, 2018, 11:07:18 PM lol its funny to laugh at these people who never had to run a competetive GE ever before. Anyway she already got the first step of lighting money on fire on stupid goals such as saving Barbara Comstock. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 13, 2018, 11:08:58 PM They're not certain about how much is left either Do we have some rough numerical estimate at least? There would need to be at least 10K to have the slightest chance of flipping the result (and probably more like 15K). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 13, 2018, 11:15:30 PM LMAO. Gotta love all these Republicans in Clinton districts who were arrogant enough to think they were safe. I wonder how they felt when they got that cold hard slap of reality. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pericles on November 13, 2018, 11:21:10 PM Lmao, that is perfect. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 13, 2018, 11:21:50 PM They're not certain about how much is left either Do we have some rough numerical estimate at least? There would need to be at least 10K to have the slightest chance of flipping the result (and probably more like 15K). This article from yesterday says "nearly 1,000" previously rejected absentees are left to count in GA-07 in Gwinnett. That seems like not enough for Bourdeaux to take the lead (but maybe enough to make it close enough for a recount to have a plausible chance of changing the result) if those ballots strongly favor her (as controversial ballots usually do favor the Democrats). I think all of the provisionals were counted today, but it's not 100% clear to me that the provisionals are done. I've seen articles from a few days ago that said there were "several thousand" provisional ballots to count in GA-07 but only 1,252 were counted today -- but maybe previous reporting overestimated the number of provisionals. https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrats-search-for-votes-before-georgia-election-results-finalized/yNspgifhm1NsnCXxVQRjiN/ Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 13, 2018, 11:30:35 PM LMAO. Gotta love all these Republicans in Clinton districts who were arrogant enough to think they were safe. I wonder how they felt when they got that cold hard slap of reality. We know how Curbelo felt, lol: Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 13, 2018, 11:30:36 PM If you read the article the tweet links to, you can see this wasn't an entirely stupid strategy on Walters's part. The Republicans' goal with the gas tax repeal campaign was not necessarily to actually repeal the gas tax (though they would have liked to) but to try to put something on the ballot that would to convince Republican voters to come out to vote when the Senate race was D v. D and the Republican gubernatorial candidate was a sacrificial lamb. By donating to the gas tax campaign, Walters clearly hoped to buoy her own reelection hopes. Indeed, she probably did by some small degree; the gas tax repeal passed in Orange County with 55.6% of the vote as of right now, meaning it certainly won decisively in her district, even if it failed statewide. It wasn't enough to save her candidacy but it probably was not a bad investment (and maybe better than lighting money on fire with pointless last-minute TV advertising). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2018, 11:32:19 PM LMAO. Gotta love all these Republicans in Clinton districts who were arrogant enough to think they were safe. I wonder how they felt when they got that cold hard slap of reality. I mean there was chatter in the months before the election that the Gas tax would bring a bunch of Republicans to the polls but I never found anything beyond spin. And in the last month we could tell this line was failing - multiple quality polls found different gaps is Yes and No responses. What this should have told them is that there were very few committed partisans on this issue beyond the normal base, there were a lot of leaners who saw the issue as just another ballot question. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 13, 2018, 11:54:38 PM https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000 (https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000) Oh boy. How many left to count? 300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded. Depending on how much Bourdeaux can gain from there, we could get to the range where a recount could legitimately effect the outcome. They're not certain about how much is left either, so we don't know. A similar remaining dump would push Bourdeaux over the top. According to this article, there are about 27k provisional ballots statewide in Georgia. https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/judge-orders-review-provisional-ballots-georgia-election/ZM2yd0QGkyZ8Zi1IyVpF3H/ Quote Her ruling applies to provisional ballots, which were issued to as many as 27,000 Georgia voters because their registration or identification couldn’t be verified. Provisional ballots are usually only counted if voters prove their eligibility within three days of the election, a deadline that passed Friday. GA has 13 Congressional Districts, so if provisional ballots are evenly distributed across GA Congressional Districts you would expect about 2077 provisional ballots in GA-07. There were 1252 provisional ballots counted so far, so that would lead one to believe that there are probably something like another 825 left. If that is how many are left and they break with the same %s to both candidates as this batch of provisionals, that would cut Woodall's lead by another 242 votes down to 291 votes. However, there are some reasons to think there might possibly be a greater than average amount of provisional ballots in GA-07 than other districts. It has had more population growth than average and probably more new people moving who might be more likely to have some sort of problem with their registration that would lead to a provisional ballot, and also we know that there were a lot of problems/irregularities/suppression of voting in Gwinnett in particular. Anyway, so if there are some more provisional ballots left that could conceivably cut Woodall's lead some more. Whether it is enough is hard to say, but it seems like there is a good chance it could at least get quite a bit closer. One thing to note though is that if there are uncounted provisionals in Forsyth County, those would probably be more Republican than ones in Gwinnett, so that might help Woodall (or at least not hurt him as much). Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Coastal Elitist on November 14, 2018, 12:11:04 AM Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent. Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: smoltchanov on November 14, 2018, 12:26:15 AM Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent. Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang Why do you expect anything else from "wild eyed ultras" (in this case - of liberal stripe, though it doesn't matter)? They are the same in both parties. That's their "gut reaction". Many of them can't even give a rational explanation of it, it simply "this way"... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Chief Justice Keef on November 14, 2018, 03:09:31 AM Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent. Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang Why do you expect anything else from "wild eyed ultras" (in this case - of liberal stripe, though it doesn't matter)? They are the same in both parties. That's their "gut reaction". Many of them can't even give a rational explanation of it, it simply "this way"... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 14, 2018, 09:34:07 AM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 14, 2018, 11:44:17 AM I just find this to be truly surprising:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roronoa D. Law on November 14, 2018, 12:08:56 PM I just find this to be truly surprising: Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Zaybay on November 14, 2018, 12:10:11 PM I just find this to be truly surprising: Anyway, I just find this rather interesting a a rather good sign for the senate seat in 2020. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 14, 2018, 12:11:22 PM I just find this to be truly surprising: Anyway, I just find this rather interesting a a rather good sign for the senate seat in 2020. That is if Bullock runs. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: VPH on November 14, 2018, 12:18:12 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: henster on November 14, 2018, 12:28:48 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 14, 2018, 12:32:33 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins? It wouldn't be the first time for that seat. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tender Branson on November 14, 2018, 12:37:58 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. So, a gain of 40 seats is still possible if all races are fully counted ? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 14, 2018, 12:41:01 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins? What is the other one that we are 100% sure about? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 14, 2018, 12:45:09 PM It seems that both Utah and Salt Lake counties added some votes and McAdam's margin barely changed. Now I'm starting to believe he might win.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 14, 2018, 12:49:17 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins? What is the other one that we are 100% sure about? Probably NM-02. Judging from History, Pearce probably runs again and wins his his seat back. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Mr.Phips on November 14, 2018, 12:56:12 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins? What is the other one that we are 100% sure about? Probably NM-02. Judging from History, Pearce probably runs again and wins his his seat back. In a Presidential year, I'd think Dems have a decent chance at holding that district. However in a midterm of Dem President, not so much. NC-09 and NY-27 would have been almost certain two year rentals. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 14, 2018, 01:04:50 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. So, a gain of 40 seats is still possible if all races are fully counted ? In the unlikely event that Dems somehow win NY-27 and ALSO win all of these races that are still uncalled (CA-21, CA-39, CA-45, GA-07, ME-02, NJ-03, UT-04), it would be a Dem net gain of... 42 House seats! () I am afraid CA-21 and probably GA-07 will end up going R though. But maybe... just maybe... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: colincb on November 14, 2018, 01:40:13 PM Looks like ME02 is going to close today
Quote Michael Shepherd Verified account @mikeshepherdME 7m7 minutes ago Now, @MESecOfState himself breezes through the State House bureau and says it's "more likely than not" that the #me02 count will come today. #mepolitics Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on November 14, 2018, 01:43:35 PM I thought MSNBC called it for Collins and Brindisi on election night, did they have to retract their calls?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 14, 2018, 01:48:43 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 14, 2018, 01:59:25 PM lol, basically
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 14, 2018, 02:08:59 PM Mia Love knows she's gonna lose:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 14, 2018, 02:46:44 PM Andy Kim wins.
https://twitter.com/6abc/status/1062792872850849795 Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ltomlinson31 on November 14, 2018, 02:56:08 PM Andy Kim wins. https://twitter.com/6abc/status/1062792872850849795 One of the most satisfying wins. Andy Kim is great, and good riddance to MacArthur. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Tintrlvr on November 14, 2018, 02:56:34 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. Where is the updated count available? I had written this one off. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: wbrocks67 on November 14, 2018, 02:57:20 PM Mia Love knows she's gonna lose: no love for mia love Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 14, 2018, 02:59:09 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. Where is the updated count available? I had written this one off. Wasserman (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/edit#gid=0)has Collins up 132,402 to 129,594, but I'm not sure how current this is. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 14, 2018, 03:05:04 PM Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier. Where is the updated count available? I had written this one off. Wasserman (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/edit#gid=0)has Collins up 132,402 to 129,594, but I'm not sure how current this is. Its behind the NYT/CNN/WashPo/etc numbers for example. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ON Progressive on November 14, 2018, 03:18:52 PM Gen Z is definitely the most conservative generation since World War II imo tbh. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 14, 2018, 03:31:42 PM Andy Kim wins. https://twitter.com/6abc/status/1062792872850849795 Kim possible! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roblox on November 14, 2018, 03:33:49 PM Gen Z is definitely the most conservative generation since World War II imo tbh. Hey, I though my generation would be super conservative because of "libs and sjws owned!!!!!" videos! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 14, 2018, 03:34:42 PM So this puts dems at 228 seats called. Including dem advantaged seats (CA39, CA45, NM02, NY22, ME02, UT04), dems 234.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 14, 2018, 03:34:56 PM Gen Z is definitely the most conservative generation since World War II imo tbh. Hey, I though my generation would be super conservative because of "libs and sjws owned!!!!!" videos! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Roblox on November 14, 2018, 03:39:39 PM Gen Z is definitely the most conservative generation since World War II imo tbh. Hey, I though my generation would be super conservative because of "libs and sjws owned!!!!!" videos! "Tbh the awesomeness of Ben Shapiro owning the libs will convert a whole generation tbh imo." Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Torrain on November 14, 2018, 04:44:26 PM Lo, the final ballots have arrived:
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 14, 2018, 04:56:11 PM Lo, the final ballots have arrived: WHAT WHY DON'T THEY JUST F**KING COUNT THEM NOW AND BE DONE WITH IT Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 14, 2018, 05:00:11 PM Lo, the final ballots have arrived: WHAT WHY DON'T THEY JUST F**KING COUNT THEM NOW AND BE DONE WITH IT It is 5 PM. Filling out forms takes time. They do not want to pay overtime. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 14, 2018, 05:12:16 PM Andy Kim wins. https://twitter.com/6abc/status/1062792872850849795 Awesome. Few people deserved to lose more than MacArthur. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 14, 2018, 05:16:58 PM It's a good thing for Dems that their majority is mostly built off more durable suburban districts rather than very Trumpy districts which probably would've been one term rentals like NC-09, KY-06, IL-12, WV-03, KS-02, etc.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 14, 2018, 05:34:15 PM It's a good thing for Dems that their majority is mostly built off more durable suburban districts rather than very Trumpy districts which probably would've been one term rentals like NC-09, KY-06, IL-12, WV-03, KS-02, etc. Yep. Dems have good reason to be very happy about how the House elections went. Less so the Senate (depending partly on how FL turns out), but not only did Dems pick up a lot of seats in the House, but they picked up the ones that are more holdable in the future. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 14, 2018, 05:38:46 PM It's a good thing for Dems that their majority is mostly built off more durable suburban districts rather than very Trumpy districts which probably would've been one term rentals like NC-09, KY-06, IL-12, WV-03, KS-02, etc. Yep. Dems have good reason to be very happy about how the House elections went. Less so the Senate (depending partly on how FL turns out), but not only did Dems pick up a lot of seats in the House, but they picked up the ones that are more holdable in the future. Downside is that there are less house seats to grab from the GOP later to protect the majority - I count around 10 left on the table, mostly in PA/NY/TX. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Nyvin on November 14, 2018, 05:45:40 PM It's a good thing for Dems that their majority is mostly built off more durable suburban districts rather than very Trumpy districts which probably would've been one term rentals like NC-09, KY-06, IL-12, WV-03, KS-02, etc. Yep. Dems have good reason to be very happy about how the House elections went. Less so the Senate (depending partly on how FL turns out), but not only did Dems pick up a lot of seats in the House, but they picked up the ones that are more holdable in the future. Downside is that there are less house seats to grab from the GOP later to protect the majority - I count around 10 left on the table, mostly in PA/NY/TX. At least it's the last election before redistricting. The maps in 2022 are looking to be considerably more favorable to dems than what we have now. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 14, 2018, 06:02:46 PM Here are the provisional ballots apparently left in Utah County UT-04 (not Salt Lake County). No idea who this is good for, but maybe someone who knows the area can guess what sort of margin Love might get based on the neighborhoods:
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 14, 2018, 06:09:16 PM Cox just gained slightly from a big dump from Fresno County, but probably not enough, unless there is another big dump coming from Kern and not much from Kings.
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on November 14, 2018, 06:19:18 PM Gen Z is definitely the most conservative generation since World War II imo tbh. Hey, I though my generation would be super conservative because of "libs and sjws owned!!!!!" videos! "Tbh the awesomeness of Ben Shapiro owning the libs will convert a whole generation tbh imo." **Insert sarcastic 'Millenial Republicans' comment here** Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 14, 2018, 06:20:41 PM Cox just gained slightly from a big dump from Fresno County, but probably not enough, unless there is another big dump coming from Kern and not much from Kings. () Actually, Cox got what he needed from the Fresno dump today. This race will be close. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 14, 2018, 06:21:50 PM Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 14, 2018, 06:22:10 PM Will we be getting any updates on CA-39 and 45 today?
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on November 14, 2018, 06:49:10 PM Will we be getting any updates on CA-39 and 45 today? Orange County is posting daily updates at 5 PM PST. LA's next update will be tomorrow or Friday. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DrScholl on November 14, 2018, 07:00:27 PM Los Angeles County updates Fridays.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 14, 2018, 07:04:51 PM Cox just gained slightly from a big dump from Fresno County, but probably not enough, unless there is another big dump coming from Kern and not much from Kings. () Actually, Cox got what he needed from the Fresno dump today. This race will be close. *If* there is more coming from Kern, sure. But do we know that there is more coming from Kern? They already had a big dump a few days ago. If that is more or less the last of it, then good for Valadao. But if there is more coming from Kern, maybe Cox has a shot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: gf20202 on November 14, 2018, 07:05:19 PM It's a good thing for Dems that their majority is mostly built off more durable suburban districts rather than very Trumpy districts which probably would've been one term rentals like NC-09, KY-06, IL-12, WV-03, KS-02, etc. Yep. Dems have good reason to be very happy about how the House elections went. Less so the Senate (depending partly on how FL turns out), but not only did Dems pick up a lot of seats in the House, but they picked up the ones that are more holdable in the future. Downside is that there are less house seats to grab from the GOP later to protect the majority - I count around 10 left on the table, mostly in PA/NY/TX. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 14, 2018, 07:05:58 PM Salt Lake County tightened some more in its latest update. McAdams' lead falls to less than 1000 votes...
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: DrScholl on November 14, 2018, 07:07:26 PM Kern has only updated once since election night (or early on 11/9), so there should be another vote dump coming.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 14, 2018, 07:08:31 PM Mia Love got 51% of the latest Salt Lake County dump today. Thats a very bad number for McAdams. He needs to be winning this county by atleast 5 points to stay ahead. I would say Love is probably in the drivers seat now.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Skill and Chance on November 14, 2018, 07:11:46 PM Hobbs (D) has expanded her lead to just over 6000 votes for Arizona SoS.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 14, 2018, 07:13:23 PM I do think that there needs to be federal standards for voting and vote counting. These slow-count states are becoming more of a joke and are providing ample breeding ground for conspiracies. The fact that it takes the idiots in California well over a month to count all of their votes is why we can't have a national popular vote for president
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 14, 2018, 07:15:12 PM I do think that there needs to be federal standards for voting and vote counting. These slow-count states are becoming more of a joke and are providing ample breeding ground for conspiracies. The fact that it takes the idiots in California well over a month to count all of their votes is why we can't have a national popular vote for president CA and WA are all-mail states. Some of those ballots are coming from a ways away (mine included). I don't want races certified before they can count my ballot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Sestak on November 14, 2018, 07:20:00 PM I do think that there needs to be federal standards for voting and vote counting. These slow-count states are becoming more of a joke and are providing ample breeding ground for conspiracies. The fact that it takes the idiots in California well over a month to count all of their votes is why we can't have a national popular vote for president CA and WA are all-mail states. Some of those ballots are coming from a ways away (mine included). I don't want races certified before they can count my ballot. CA is not all-mail. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 14, 2018, 07:20:02 PM San Bernadino drops
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 14, 2018, 07:21:09 PM And Kings in CA-21...
() Not bad at all! Cox is over-performing the Hilllary #s in Kings in this batch! So if there is more Kern, he could do it... Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 14, 2018, 07:21:21 PM I do think that there needs to be federal standards for voting and vote counting. These slow-count states are becoming more of a joke and are providing ample breeding ground for conspiracies. The fact that it takes the idiots in California well over a month to count all of their votes is why we can't have a national popular vote for president CA and WA are all-mail states. Some of those ballots are coming from a ways away (mine included). I don't want races certified before they can count my ballot. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: 2016 on November 14, 2018, 07:29:20 PM If Mia Love still pulls this out in UT-4 she may have to thank Mitt Romney to thank for.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Gass3268 on November 14, 2018, 07:30:44 PM If anything we all should go to a vote by mail system.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Thatkat04 on November 14, 2018, 07:34:10 PM If Mia Love still pulls this out in UT-4 she may have to thank Mitt Romney to thank for. I'd say it's more that Utah County is growing very rapidly. Its probably one of if not the most Republican county with a population over 500,000. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: ag on November 14, 2018, 07:36:36 PM If anything we all should go to a vote by mail system. Not obvious. US, indeed, has unnecessarily complicated and non-uniform voting procedures. It is possible to achieve high voting turnout without relying on vote-by-mail (a fairly archaic system, given the day and age, anyway). Other countries have managed to figure out how to do run elections cleaner and more efficiently - and few of them, if any, rely on mail. However, it is udeniable, this way it is more fun. I mean, imagine if we had a couple of weeks to get the results like this not merely from CA and a few others, but from the entire country! Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 14, 2018, 07:37:09 PM Mia Love is one of the few R's I'm rooting for this cycle.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on November 14, 2018, 07:37:59 PM If anything we all should go to a vote by mail system. Yep, one of many components of a new Voting Rights Act the next time Dems get a trifecta. I would say also give people the option to vote at voting centers in person though, like CO. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: lfromnj on November 14, 2018, 07:38:14 PM If Mia Love still pulls this out in UT-4 she may have to thank Mitt Romney to thank for. I'd say it's more that Utah County is growing very rapidly. Its probably one of if not the most Republican county with a population over 500,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montgomery_County,_Texas Maybe this? It voted 25-75 for rourke. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 14, 2018, 07:38:28 PM Salt Lake County tightened some more in its latest update. McAdams' lead falls to less than 1000 votes... McAdams is screwed if the rest of the SLC ballots are remotely similar to that batch. I won't be too upset if we lose this one though considering it was likely to be a one term rental anyway. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: IceSpear on November 14, 2018, 07:52:25 PM Mia Love is one of the few R's I'm rooting for this cycle. Why? Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Crumpets on November 14, 2018, 07:53:03 PM I do think that there needs to be federal standards for voting and vote counting. These slow-count states are becoming more of a joke and are providing ample breeding ground for conspiracies. The fact that it takes the idiots in California well over a month to count all of their votes is why we can't have a national popular vote for president CA and WA are all-mail states. Some of those ballots are coming from a ways away (mine included). I don't want races certified before they can count my ballot. CA is not all-mail. Ah, yes. I was thinking Oregon. Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Doimper on November 14, 2018, 07:56:16 PM Those white 30-44 numbers are nothing to scoff at, either. Wow.
Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: adma on November 14, 2018, 07:59:00 PM Andy Kim wins. https://twitter.com/6abc/status/1062792872850849795 Well, rock me gently. () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 14, 2018, 08:01:44 PM Kim up by a thread
() Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 14, 2018, 08:04:04 PM Porter expands her lead to nearly 4K votes-
() This race is callable Imo Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 14, 2018, 08:04:19 PM Kim up by a thread () Title: Re: Election Night Open Thread (House/Senate) Post by: Beet on November 14, 2018, 08:05:47 PM Mia Love is one of the few R's I'm rooting for this cycle. Why? I’m sure it’s because her policy positions and definitely not because of her skin color and gender Yes, her skin color factors into it. We need more black Republicans, as I've said before. If you have a problem with that, you can take a hike. It's not like most people decide strictly on policy anyways. That said, her policy positions are a lot more reasonable than most Republicans. She admirably called out Trump on some of his BS. Title: Re: Election 2018 Open Thread - part 1 Post by: Brittain33 on November 15, 2018, 10:24:30 AM This thread got too long and that can't continue even while California continues counting. Locked, please proceed to new thread.
- New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306940.0 |