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Title: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on November 01, 2018, 08:18:25 AM http://floridapolitics.com/archives/279703-st-pete-polls-bill-nelson
Nelson 49 Scott 47 Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Woody on November 01, 2018, 08:27:50 AM NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: ON Progressive on November 01, 2018, 08:33:22 AM They’ve been stuck at a narrow Scott lead most of the cycle, so this is good news.
Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 01, 2018, 09:05:57 AM Tilt D.
Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Zaybay on November 01, 2018, 09:09:05 AM The nail in the coffin
Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on November 01, 2018, 09:09:55 AM Bye bye Voldemort!
Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Person Man on November 01, 2018, 09:11:41 AM NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Heck Yes! Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Xing on November 01, 2018, 09:12:15 AM Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead?
Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2018, 11:26:02 AM Either Nelson really is up 2 and everyone has suddenly become experts at polling Florida, or there is some weird herding going on here.
() Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Gass3268 on November 01, 2018, 11:27:46 AM Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead? Luckily (I mean that in a non-political sense), the hurricane only directly effected a very small % of Florida's population (like close to 3%). I don't think a lot of people took that into account. Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: MT Treasurer on November 01, 2018, 12:13:26 PM Either Nelson really is up 2 and everyone has suddenly become experts at polling Florida, or there is some weird herding going on here. () Hahahahaha wtf Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: UWS on November 01, 2018, 12:39:36 PM Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead? Don't underestimate Scott. Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: KingSweden on November 01, 2018, 12:40:38 PM NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Inject this post in my veins Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Xing on November 01, 2018, 12:42:35 PM Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead? Don't underestimate Scott. Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida Saying that "this thing happened this one other year so it'll happen this year too!" is a pretty clear sign that you're losing. Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: UWS on November 01, 2018, 12:44:07 PM Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead? Don't underestimate Scott. Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida Saying that "this thing happened this one other year so it'll happen this year too!" is a pretty clear sign that you're losing. Don't be so sure. Trump's job approval rating are getting better and better in Florida and this poll was published before Trump's yesterday rally for Scott in Fort Myers, Florida. Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Adam Griffin on November 01, 2018, 12:45:30 PM Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election.
Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: SN2903 on November 01, 2018, 12:53:13 PM Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election. Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Adam Griffin on November 01, 2018, 12:56:57 PM Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election. Bill Nelson is not Hillary Clinton, and Rick "Plurality" Scott isn't going to skate by with a win in the 40s this time. Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: ON Progressive on November 01, 2018, 12:58:59 PM Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election. Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Xing on November 01, 2018, 12:59:26 PM Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead? Don't underestimate Scott. Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida Saying that "this thing happened this one other year so it'll happen this year too!" is a pretty clear sign that you're losing. Don't be so sure. Trump's job approval rating are getting better and better in Florida and this poll was published before Trump's yesterday rally for Scott in Fort Myers, Florida. Heh, well, I'm at least aware of the possibility that Tuesday night might not be great for the Democrats, I'd suggest you prepare yourself for the (stronger) possibility of it being bad for Republicans. Not every election is going to go down like 2016. Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: MT Treasurer on November 01, 2018, 01:00:49 PM I mean, Trump only won this state by 1 against a hilariously (no pun intended) weak opponent, so Nelson winning by 2 in a better year for Democrats should come as no real surprise. He doesn’t even need to flip any Trump voters to win.
Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: junior chįmp on November 01, 2018, 01:02:21 PM Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election. Man...are you guys ever going to stop talking about Hillary and 2016. Its totally different enviorment, fundamentals, enthusiasm, etc... Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Baki on November 01, 2018, 01:10:02 PM Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead? Don't underestimate Scott. Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida Ok so - Scott barely won in a much better year for the GOP against a worse opponent, therefore he cannot possibly win now? Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Adam Griffin on November 01, 2018, 01:21:54 PM Just so we can put an end to this dumb debate: the polling averages for gubernatorial/presidential elections in FL for the final 2 weeks:
2008 Polling: Obama +2.8 Actual: Obama +2.8 DIFF: 0 2010 Polling: Scott +0.2 Actual: Scott +1.1 DIFF: 0.9 R 2012 Polling: Romney +1.4 Actual: Obama +0.9 DIFF 2.3 D 2014 Polling: Scott +0.4 Actual: Scott +1.1 DIFF 0.7 R 2016 Polling: Trump +0.4 Actual: Trump +1.2 DIFF 0.8 R Aggregate polling in FL has actually been quite accurate historically - and certainly possess no statistically-significant bias against the GOP. Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Person Man on November 01, 2018, 01:23:54 PM If they are above 1, they will be fine.
Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: UWS on November 01, 2018, 01:27:45 PM Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead? Don't underestimate Scott. Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida Saying that "this thing happened this one other year so it'll happen this year too!" is a pretty clear sign that you're losing. Don't be so sure. Trump's job approval rating are getting better and better in Florida and this poll was published before Trump's yesterday rally for Scott in Fort Myers, Florida. Heh, well, I'm at least aware of the possibility that Tuesday night might not be great for the Democrats, I'd suggest you prepare yourself for the (stronger) possibility of it being bad for Republicans. Not every election is going to go down like 2016. Scott might lose but that doesn’t mean at all that the GOP can’t make some gains like in Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota. Title: Re: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2 Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 01, 2018, 07:42:10 PM Bye bye Voldemort! This election will hopefully be the equivalent of his horcrux getting destroyed. |