Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: mileslunn on October 31, 2018, 10:53:26 pm



Title: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on October 31, 2018, 10:53:26 pm
In under a year's time Canadians will go to the polls.  My thoughts on the parties and regions are as follows, but off course things as usual will likely to change between now an election day.

Liberals

Justin Trudeau has decent approval ratings with all showing him over 40% and most over 50% so while he has lots of haters, especially amongst the Conservative base, overall I think he is heavily favoured to be re-elected next year.  The real question is will it be another majority or be reduced to a minority.  At the moment it looks like a majority, but polls are volatile enough I wouldn't be shocked if it was a minority.

Conservatives

They've done a good job at holding on their base of 30% and some polls show them above the 35% mark, but while they have a good chance of improving on their 99 seats from 2015, I think winning is a very long shot.  Not impossible but not likely.  Also even if they win a plurality, NDP and Liberals will probably gang up to keep them out so I think for Scheer the real question is does he increase the seat count enough to stay on as leader and try for PM the next time or does he fail to make headway and perhaps even lose seats thus being forced to resign as leader.  Half the population has no opinion of him so he will probably get the core 30% that always vote Tory, but whether he can appeal beyond that remains to be seen.

NDP

Generally have gotten a lot of negative press and Singh's approval rating is fairly low.  Also with Trudeau taking a fairly left of centre stance, I think he is somewhat squeezed out.  Still he might perform better than expected on the campaign trail.  I think the biggest determinant in how well he does is how big a threat the Tories are.  If the Liberals have a healthy lead, I think the party will do alright as progressives will feel they can safely vote NDP without risking a Tory government, but if polls are tight, probably not so much as a lot of progressives will then strategically vote Liberal.

Bloc Quebecois

Never want to totally count them out, but they seem to be on life support and I suspect will probably not be much of a factor.

Green Party

They are polling well now, but I find since in most ridings they are a throw away vote usually things fall a bit as more people vote strategically.  That being said I could see them picking up a few more seats on the Southern part of Vancouver Island where they are quite strong.

People's Party

I doubt it will go very far.  It might appeal to some of the more right wing elements who think Scheer is insufficiently conservative, but libertarianism has never really had that broad a support and also with poor vetting will probably attract a lot of nutbars.  Also most Tories despise Trudeau with a passion, so I think vote splits on the right are unlikely.  If Tories lose, as I think they will, it will be because they did attract enough middle of the road voters, not due to splits on the right.

Atlantic Canada

I suspect the Liberals will once again dominate this region, although I think the Tories will win back a few of their traditional strongholds so not a Liberal sweep like last time, but still Liberals winning the vast majority.  Almost certainly over 20 seats and highly likely over 25 seats.  NDP will come more down to local candidates so if they win any seats it will be due to strong local candidates.

Quebec

At the moment Liberals are in good shape to not only hold but gain seats, however support is quite soft so as Quebec is always unpredictable no guarantee the gains will materialize.  Conservatives will probably hold onto to the majority of seats they have now, but unless Scheer really impresses Quebecers I think at best they might pick up a seat or two and could just as easily lose a few seats too.  For the Tories their support is very concentrated in the Quebec city region, so whether they get 15% or 30% doesn't make a lot of difference seat wise.  Only changes if they fall below 15% in which they lose many of their seats or go above 30% in which they start flipping many other seats.  NDP will lose most of their seats and I think the east end of Montreal is really the only area that is naturally a good fit for them.  It's possible a few MPs might hold on due to personal popularity.  Bloc Quebecois as mentioned above while People's Party will go nowhere, in fact I predict Bernier loses his riding.  Just a question of does he split the vote enough to allow the Liberals to win it or do the Tories hold on.

Ontario

With Wynne gone and Ford now premier who is quite polarizing, I would say the Liberals are favoured to win the majority of seats here.  Holding onto all 80 will be a stretch but I think the odds favour them winning over 60 seats.  40 seats is their absolute worse but I only see that happening if the economy tanks or a scandal emerges.  Tories should hold most of their seats and maybe pick up a few close ones, but doubt they will beat the Liberals.  Mind you they got 35% and I could see them dropping as low as 30% thus costing them seats at the same time a slight uptick and better vote splits could net them 50 maybe even 60 seats.  In Ontario you can flip a lot of seats with a relatively small vote swing.  NDP will win some seats, but how well they do as mentioned above will largely depend on the Tory threat, otherwise gain if Tories are not a threat, stay where they are if they are.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba

Tories will probably win the majority of seats here and will almost certainly come in first in Saskatchewan although Manitoba could go either way.  Regina, Saskatoon, and suburban Winnipeg will be the battlegrounds while I expect them to win big in all rural seats save the two Northern ones.  Liberals should do well in Winnipeg, but outside of there, only really three seats I think they have a shot at; Ralph Goodale's they will hold if he runs again while the two Northern are possibilities.  NDP might gain back a few in Winnipeg and has some potential in Regina and Saskatoon, but my guess is they win seats in both provinces but finish behind the Tories in both and behind the Liberals in Manitoba.

Alberta

The Tories will obviously win the vast majority of seats here, but I doubt it will be a clean sweep.  Liberals will be in a tough fight to hold the four seats they have.  For them turnout amongst millennials will be a big factor as most boomers hate the Liberals and Trudeau, but millennials in Alberta are more inclined to support them and Alberta has the youngest population.  A strong millennial turnout and they should hold and possibly pick up a few more urban seats, while poor millennial turnout and lose all four.  With Linda Duncan not running again, I could see the NDP getting anywhere from 0 to 2 seats.  Provincial election could have an impact since if NDP does better than expected you might see many progressives coalesce around them whereas if they lose badly in the spring most will probably coalesce around the Liberals.  Either way don't see them winning any seats outside Edmonton.

British Columbia

Probably a three way race with each having their strength.  Liberals are probably favoured overall, but it will be a mixed bag.  They should do well in the Lower Mainland, but not so much in other parts of the province.  Tories are likely to rebound a bit from their low of 30% but how they do seat wise will depend heavily on vote splits.  Strong vote splits and they could more than double their seat count, but weak vote splits and will likely struggle to hold what they have.  NDP should do okay, but if provincial government's approval rating tanks that could cost them seats, but hasn't happened yet.  My guess is Interior largely Conservative, Lower Mainland largely Liberal with a few NDP and Conservative seats, while Vancouver Island largely NDP.  Greens as mentioned should be competitive south of Nanaimo on Vancouver Island, but whether they can gain any new seats or not remains to be seen.

Territories

Liberals likely take all three, but either the Tories or NDP could pick up seats here if they have a strong candidate as in the North local candidate as opposed to party tends to matter more.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on October 31, 2018, 10:54:39 pm
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on October 31, 2018, 10:58:42 pm
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever

If the Tories win it won't be a landslide.  One term PMs are quite rare so I think the Tories beating the Liberals in seat count is a steep, but not impossible hill to climb.  Actually winning a majority will require a lot of things falling into place as at the moment they are a long ways away from it.  Now true, if every voter who in the last provincial elections voted for centre-right parties (BC Liberals in 2017, WRP + PC in AB in 2015, Saskatchewan Party in 2016, Manitoba PCs in 2016, Ontario PCs in 2018, CAQ in 2018, NB PCs + People's Alliance in 2018, PEI PC's in 2015, NS PC's in 2017, and NL PC's in 2015) also voted Tory federally, that would be sufficient, but I am skeptical of them doing as well as their provincial counterparts in pretty much every province save Alberta as in all other provinces each one had certain things going for them the federal party lacks.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on October 31, 2018, 11:02:34 pm
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever

If the Tories win it won't be a landslide.  One term PMs are quite rare so I think the Tories beating the Liberals in seat count is a steep, but not impossible hill to climb.  Actually winning a majority will require a lot of things falling into place as at the moment they are a long ways away from it.  Now true, if every voter who in the last provincial elections voted for centre-right parties (BC Liberals in 2017, WRP + PC in AB in 2015, Saskatchewan Party in 2016, Manitoba PCs in 2016, Ontario PCs in 2018, CAQ in 2018, NB PCs + People's Alliance in 2018, PEI PC's in 2015, NS PC's in 2017, and NL PC's in 2015) also voted Tory federally, that would be sufficient, but I am skeptical of them doing as well as their provincial counterparts in pretty much every province save Alberta as in all other provinces each one had certain things going for them the federal party lacks.

Yah I know they wont win in a landslide, all Im saying is they deserve to.


I dont think winning a majority is implausible but it depends on what type of campaign they run. If they run a milquetoast campaign and run away from Harper they will lose. They need to run an aggressive campaign


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on October 31, 2018, 11:07:46 pm
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever

If the Tories win it won't be a landslide.  One term PMs are quite rare so I think the Tories beating the Liberals in seat count is a steep, but not impossible hill to climb.  Actually winning a majority will require a lot of things falling into place as at the moment they are a long ways away from it.  Now true, if every voter who in the last provincial elections voted for centre-right parties (BC Liberals in 2017, WRP + PC in AB in 2015, Saskatchewan Party in 2016, Manitoba PCs in 2016, Ontario PCs in 2018, CAQ in 2018, NB PCs + People's Alliance in 2018, PEI PC's in 2015, NS PC's in 2017, and NL PC's in 2015) also voted Tory federally, that would be sufficient, but I am skeptical of them doing as well as their provincial counterparts in pretty much every province save Alberta as in all other provinces each one had certain things going for them the federal party lacks.

Yah I know they wont win in a landslide, all Im saying is they deserve to.


I dont think winning a majority is implausible but it depends on what type of campaign they run. If they run a milquetoast campaign and run away from Harper they will lose. They need to run an aggressive campaign

I think their challenges are regional.  Harper is still hated in Atlantic Canada so they can win there but they have to return to their Red Tory roots and that will anger a lot of their base.  Quebec is always a wild card and usually it either embraces them (like 1958, 1984, or 1988) or soundly rejects like in most elections, no in between and usually we don't get any clues until about two weeks before the election.  I think had Horwath won last June or Wynne somehow got back in, the Tories would be in great shape to make gains in Ontario, but since Ford is premier who is very polarizing and divisive, that will probably hurt them there.  Ontario has a long history of voting opposites federally and provincially so with the PCs now in control at Queen's Park, that hurts the chances for the Tories federally.  They already hold the majority of ridings in the Prairies and not enough ones they don't hold to make a big difference.  BC seems to have swung leftward of recent so that could change if the provincial NDP tanks, but at the moment things don't look good for them, at least not in the coastal areas (I live here so I would know) which is the majority of the province.

To be fair, its not all bad for the right in Canada.  Unlike in 2015, we now have four provinces with 2/3 of the population with centre-right governments and that will likely grow to six as in New Brunswick Liberals likely to be defeated on the throne speech this Friday thus making room for the PCs and Alberta will likely swing rightward next May provincially.  So in all probability you will have over 80% of Canadians living in provinces with centre-right provincial governments so having a centre-left federally sort of balances things out.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: The Ghost of Tammany Hall on November 01, 2018, 10:05:35 pm
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 01, 2018, 11:43:10 pm
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?

That was a disgrace in every way.




Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: The Ghost of Tammany Hall on November 01, 2018, 11:45:42 pm
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 01, 2018, 11:48:48 pm
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: The Ghost of Tammany Hall on November 02, 2018, 12:04:31 am
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?
He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars
Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 02, 2018, 12:08:47 am
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?
He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars
Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.

He never was acquitted of Treason , so he should have been charged with that


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: The Ghost of Tammany Hall on November 02, 2018, 12:12:50 am
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?
He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars
Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.
He never was acquitted of Treason , so he should have been charged with that
So are you suggesting that Justin Trudeau should have in some manner forced the courts towards a certain ruling?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 02, 2018, 12:13:32 am
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?
He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars
Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.
He never was acquitted of Treason , so he should have been charged with that
So are you suggesting that Justin Trudeau should have in some manner forced the judge towards a certain ruling?

he should have deported him to the US


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: The Ghost of Tammany Hall on November 02, 2018, 12:17:31 am
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?
He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars
Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.
He never was acquitted of Treason , so he should have been charged with that
So are you suggesting that Justin Trudeau should have in some manner forced the judge towards a certain ruling?
he should have deported him to the US
It is illegal in Canada to send people to face trails in countries where they could face the death penalty.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 02, 2018, 12:26:47 am
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?
He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars
Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.
He never was acquitted of Treason , so he should have been charged with that
So are you suggesting that Justin Trudeau should have in some manner forced the judge towards a certain ruling?
he should have deported him to the US
It is illegal in Canada to send people to face trails in countries where they could face the death penalty.

Fine next time the US shouldnt send Canadian terrorists who killed US soliders back to Canada for trial.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: The Ghost of Tammany Hall on November 02, 2018, 12:30:47 am
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?
He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars
Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.
He never was acquitted of Treason , so he should have been charged with that
So are you suggesting that Justin Trudeau should have in some manner forced the judge towards a certain ruling?
he should have deported him to the US
It is illegal in Canada to send people to face trails in countries where they could face the death penalty.
Fine next time the US shouldnt send Canadian terrorists who killed US soliders back to Canada for trial.
Even putting aside this technicality, I don't see why you think Canada's human rights code should have been ignored.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 02, 2018, 12:31:23 am
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?
He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars
Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.
He never was acquitted of Treason , so he should have been charged with that
So are you suggesting that Justin Trudeau should have in some manner forced the judge towards a certain ruling?
he should have deported him to the US
It is illegal in Canada to send people to face trails in countries where they could face the death penalty.
Fine next time the US shouldnt send Canadian terrorists who killed US soliders back to Canada for trial.
Even putting aside this technicality, I don't see why you think Canada's human rights code should have been ignored.

He should have been charged with Treason


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on November 02, 2018, 09:36:11 am
Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever
Muh Omar Khadr?
That was a disgrace in every way.



Why exactly should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?
He committed Treason(Since Article V was invoked)  so he should have been thrown in prison for life without the possibility of parole for that crime.

He is also a Terrorist and killed an America Solider so he should have been tried for that murder not released and given 10 million dollars
Why should the Charter of Rights and Freedoms not have applied in this case?

The fact of it is, just like in America, the Charter applies to everyone, no matter their moral standing.
He never was acquitted of Treason , so he should have been charged with that
So are you suggesting that Justin Trudeau should have in some manner forced the judge towards a certain ruling?
he should have deported him to the US
It is illegal in Canada to send people to face trails in countries where they could face the death penalty.
Fine next time the US shouldnt send Canadian terrorists who killed US soliders back to Canada for trial.
Even putting aside this technicality, I don't see why you think Canada's human rights code should have been ignored.

He should have been charged with Treason

Wrong Premier to blame to blame, in any case. When Trudeau arrived in power, he was already free on parole and suing the government for 20 millions for breach of Charter rights and illegal deportation (case which would have been lost according to case law).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 02, 2018, 10:44:12 am
Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot. ::)

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 02, 2018, 11:53:51 am
Have to quibble with Miles characterization of Atlantic Canada.
Red Toryism in Atlantic Canada is not same as Red Toryism on the pages of the Globe & Mail. We love our EI benefits, which is why Harperism flopped, but a more free spending, semi-populist (i.e. not as far as Fordism) conservatism could make some solid inroads here.

There has been a ~12% swing which is likely concentrated among rural Anglos. Just eyeballing it I would project the Tories picking up half a dozen rural Anglo seats quite easily and quite possibly more if the Liberals falter a little bit.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 02, 2018, 12:46:47 pm
Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot. ::)

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.



He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on November 02, 2018, 02:10:22 pm
Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot. ::)

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.



He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019

Stephen Harper was the Prime Minister when he was released, in any case.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 02, 2018, 02:13:53 pm
Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot. ::)

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.



He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019

Stephen Harper was the Prime Minister when he was released, in any case.

He didnt give him 10 million dollars


The fact that Trudeau did that is unforgivable


He should have deported him to America and yes while America has the death penalty , America is Canada's top allies and since he killed one of America's soldiers he should have been deported to America to face trial.

I hope the rest of Khadar life is miserable


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on November 02, 2018, 03:05:19 pm
Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot. ::)

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.



He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019

Stephen Harper was the Prime Minister when he was released, in any case.

He didnt give him 10 million dollars


The fact that Trudeau did that is unforgivable


He should have deported him to America and yes while America has the death penalty , America is Canada's top allies and since he killed one of America's soldiers he should have been deported to America to face trial.

I hope the rest of Khadar life is miserable

1. The options on the table were pretty much setting now and give him money or spend millions in lawyer fees and give him 20 millions (+ his lawyers' fees) in a few years when he wins his lawsuit. I would rather blame Guantanamo Bay's methods, which are what gave source to the payment. I'm rather annoyed to have to give money to him because of abuse by the US Government.

2. There is extensive case law banning Canada from deporting people if they would possibly face death penalty. Options there would be either USA abolishing death penalty or Canada amending its Bill of Rights, neither of which will happen.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 02, 2018, 03:07:45 pm
Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot. ::)

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.



He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019

Stephen Harper was the Prime Minister when he was released, in any case.

He didnt give him 10 million dollars


The fact that Trudeau did that is unforgivable


He should have deported him to America and yes while America has the death penalty , America is Canada's top allies and since he killed one of America's soldiers he should have been deported to America to face trial.

I hope the rest of Khadar life is miserable

1. The options on the table were pretty much setting now and give him money or spend millions in lawyer fees and give him 20 millions (+ his lawyers' fees) in a few years when he wins his lawsuit. I would rather blame Guantanamo Bay's methods, which are what gave source to the payment. I'm rather annoyed to have to give money to him because of abuse by the US Government.

2. There is extensive case law banning Canada from deporting people if they would possibly face death penalty. Options there would be either USA abolishing death penalty or Canada amending its Bill of Rights, neither of which will happen.

the fact is Trudeau could have still hit him with additional charges of treason . Remember Trudeau called Harper out for many years for keeping Khadar in prison


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 02, 2018, 03:14:09 pm
Have to quibble with Miles characterization of Atlantic Canada.
Red Toryism in Atlantic Canada is not same as Red Toryism on the pages of the Globe & Mail. We love our EI benefits, which is why Harperism flopped, but a more free spending, semi-populist (i.e. not as far as Fordism) conservatism could make some solid inroads here.

There has been a ~12% swing which is likely concentrated among rural Anglos. Just eyeballing it I would project the Tories picking up half a dozen rural Anglo seats quite easily and quite possibly more if the Liberals falter a little bit.
Pretty naive of you to try and say something actually relevant, tbh :)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on November 02, 2018, 03:43:50 pm
Lets stay on topic instead of personal opinions here.  If you think the Khadr cheque will have an impact then mention it and why, but leave your personal politics out.  If you want to discuss that, start in page in the personal politics section.  I created this just as created one for PEI and Newfoundland as following US Election Atlas policies, it says don't create one more than a year out so I create a topic usually just under a year before the election as now with fixed dates much of what happens in terms of events will be about each party positioning themselves to win or make gains as opposed to what is best policy.  Otherwise the focus is going to be for all three parties on winning and thus it will all be about what groups they think they can pick up and avoiding any controversial statements or policies that could sink their chances.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 02, 2018, 05:52:43 pm
Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot. ::)

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.



He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019

"you guys"? You're the first person here to ever accuse me of being a Liberal. :P


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on November 02, 2018, 07:56:45 pm
Memo to Old School Republican: get out of this thread, you're derailing it.

Oh, and back to the topic at hand: somehow, I *can* see Maxime Bernier winning his own seat, even if his party dumpster-fires elsewhere.  In effect, he might as well be "independent", much like his father in 1993...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 02, 2018, 08:23:57 pm
Have to quibble with Miles characterization of Atlantic Canada.
Red Toryism in Atlantic Canada is not same as Red Toryism on the pages of the Globe & Mail. We love our EI benefits, which is why Harperism flopped, but a more free spending, semi-populist (i.e. not as far as Fordism) conservatism could make some solid inroads here.

There has been a ~12% swing which is likely concentrated among rural Anglos. Just eyeballing it I would project the Tories picking up half a dozen rural Anglo seats quite easily and quite possibly more if the Liberals falter a little bit.
Pretty naive of you to try and say something actually relevant, tbh :)

Thanks I try my best :P


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on November 02, 2018, 09:27:49 pm
Memo to Old School Republican: get out of this thread, you're derailing it.

Oh, and back to the topic at hand: somehow, I *can* see Maxime Bernier winning his own seat, even if his party dumpster-fires elsewhere.  In effect, he might as well be "independent", much like his father in 1993...

He is quite popular in his riding, but his stance on supply management might hurt him.  I believe his riding has more dairy farmers than any other riding in Canada so probably not the best riding to be in when going after one of the largest contributors to the local economy.  If he were a suburban riding or rural riding with few Dairy farmers (not many in the Prairies) it might work in his favour.  Both Legault and Ford despite being conservatives are strong supporters of supply management and for good reasons.  Their strongest showings were in rural ridings where dairy farming is an important part of the economy.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on November 13, 2018, 03:05:14 pm
Nanos has some recent polls out showing Liberals with an almost 12 point lead and the Tories at 27.5%, the lowest they've been since May 2017.  Whether this is a trend or blip, hard to say but would be interested to see other pollsters weigh in.  Mainstreet research should be out soon and Quito Maggi tweeted PPC doing better than other pollsters.  If true, my guess is the carbon tax stance is hurting the Tories.  Most people want action on climate change, but don't want it to cost too much.  If the carbon tax didn't involve rebates, it might be a winning issue for the Tories, but the inclusion of rebates turns the tables.  MQO as mentioned in PEI and Newfoundland headings has polls for the provinces.  For Nova Scotia, looks good for the Liberals, but the Tories have decent numbers, their problem is the NDP is very weak so lack of splits, but if they can hold their numbers and NDP gets an uptick could regain some of the ridings they lost in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia.  In New Brunswick, Tories have a slight lead over Liberals so likely the results would be similar to the last provincial election.  While things can change, I would be shocked if the Liberals sweep New Brunswick again.  I suspect the Tories will win seats in New Brunswick, maybe Nova Scotia, but not likely in PEI or Newfoundland.  For the NDP, any win in Atlantic Canada will probably come from having a popular candidate in a riding where there is no chance of vote splits.  It looks like much like PEI, Greens due to probably provincial strength are getting a strong bounce in New Brunswick.

Nova Scotia

Liberal 50%
Conservative 34%
NDP 10%
Green6%


New Brunswick

Conservative 38%
Liberal 35%
Green 15%
NDP8%

With those numbers, I suspect Tories would easily take Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest, and Fundy-Royal.  Saint John-Rothesay, Fredericton, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Central Nova, and Cumberland-Colchester would likely be close battles.  West Nova seems to have swung pretty heavily Liberal, so skeptical about a Tory pick up here.  South Shore-St. Margaret's only went Tory due to strong Liberal/NDP splits which are lacking at the moment.  Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe and Madawaska-Restigouche have large Francophone communities so I could be wrong, but I am thinking the provincial government and unpopularity of Higgs and PANB amongst Francophones (fairly popular amongst Anglophones, but not Francophones) would probably hurt their chances never mind in 2015 it appears the Anglophone conservative vote dropped a lot, but it didn't implode like it did in Francophone areas.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on November 14, 2018, 11:09:53 am
Mainstreet research is out nationally.  Liberals similar numbers to Nanos, but Tories doing somewhat better although even though the topline numbers may suggest a competitive political landscape, the regional numbers paint a much bleaker picture for the Tories.  BC is close, Tories have a big lead in the Prairie provinces and that is the main reason the party appears competitive but running up the margins there may push vote total up, but not seat total.  Ontario and Quebec, Liberals both have large leads and are in great position to hold the seats they have now and in Quebec even gain, while the Tories in both cases are in good shape to hold what they have now, but to win or even come close they need strong gains in at least one if not both provinces and that is not the case at the moment in either.  In Atlantic Canada, Liberals still maintain a large lead although Tories are up enough from 2015 to probably win a few seats thus avoiding a complete shutout, but Liberals would still win the lion's share.  NDP is very weak and their low support here (although for whatever reason Mainstreet always seems to underestimate them compared to others) is probably one of the biggest things Trudeau has going for him provided this holds.  The people's Party is at 3.8% so higher than most other polls, but still a very small number but enough to cost the Tories many close seats.  Nonetheless, while combining CPC + PPC would put the two in a statistical tie, Liberals would still win a majority even if all PPC votes went to the CPC due to vote inefficiency of CPC.

Liberal 39.3%
Conservative 34.6%
NDP 10.8%
Green 6.8%
PPC 3.8%
BQ 3.4%



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on November 14, 2018, 07:39:19 pm
Frankly, with a NDP number that low, I'd worry that they're poised to be "Audreyed" a la 1993


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on November 14, 2018, 07:49:49 pm
Frankly, with a NDP number that low, I'd worry that they're poised to be "Audreyed" a la 1993

Mainstreet always puts them on the low side, so I think they will still get over 12 seats.  They will probably lose most in Quebec, but the east side of Montreal voted heavily QS so think they have a chance there.  In Ontario they should win some while in Manitoba as the unpopular NDP government, which hurt them in 2015 is gone, they should hold or maybe gain.  In BC have a strong base and pockets where they always do well and unlike in 1993, the BC NDP government has recently decent approval ratings so they won't be dragged down by them like they were in 1974, 1993, 1997, and 2000 (caveat that assumes the BC NDP government's approval stays where it is and doesn't tank).  In Saskatchewan, they are the main alternative to the Tories not the Liberals and with a strong urban/rural divide and an end of the gerrymandered rural/urban split ridings, they should win a few urban Saskatchewan ones.  Never mind Scott Moe while popular, not as popular as Brad Wall was in 2015 and his strong numbers are more due to sky high support in rural Saskatchewan, in the two cities he is not so popular.

Definitely possible, but I think this happening is about as likely as the Liberals dropping below 100 seats or Tories falling below 70 seats.  I could see NDP falling below 20 seats, but think below 12 is not very likely.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on November 23, 2018, 09:54:48 am
Two bills renaming ridings passed the House and are now in front of the Senate.

C-377 renames Châteauguay-Lacolle in Châteauguay--Les-Jardins-de-Napierville. Makes sense, as Lacolle isn't in the riding (the boundary commission even admitted their mistake) while Les-Jardins-de-Napierville is a county covering most of the riding.

C-402 renames 16 ridings.

Cape Breton-Canso in Cape Breton-North Nova.
South Shore-St. Margaret's in South Nova
Syndey-Victoria in Cape Breton by the Sea.


A bunch of horrible Tourism Board like names.

Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis in Lévis-Bellechasse-Etchemins. A fine choice, going by population order rather than alphabetical.
Jonquière in Jonquière--Haut-Saguenay. Makes sense, it makes clear the riding is now covering a large rural component (unlike the old Jonquière-Alma).
Manicouagan in Côte-Nord. Common sense.
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot in Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton. Bagot isn't a county since the 1979 reforms, being replaced by Acton MRC.

Mississauga-Streetsville in Streetsville-Meadowvale-Lisgar. More confusing
Nickel Belt in Greater Sudbury-Nickel Belt

Charleswood-St. James-Annisiboia-Headingley in Winnipeg West-Headingley
Regina-Lewvan in Regina West
Calgary-Signal Hill in Calgary West
. Great ideas
Fort McMurray-Cold Lake in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche-Cold Lake

Burnaby-South in Burnaby-Douglas
Langley-Aldergrove in Langley-West Abbotsford
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon in Abbotsford-Mission-Fraser Canyon


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 23, 2018, 10:44:21 am
Ugh those NS names are horrible. No one uses ______ Nova in real life.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: toaster on December 02, 2018, 10:11:27 pm
Don't all Mississauga ridings have the name Mississauga in them?  Why take one out?  Also, Greater Sudbury - Nickel Belt is confusing, but I guess you can't really name all the (formerly separate) surrounding municipalities. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on December 02, 2018, 11:00:25 pm
Don't all Mississauga ridings have the name Mississauga in them?  Why take one out?  Also, Greater Sudbury - Nickel Belt is confusing, but I guess you can't really name all the (formerly separate) surrounding municipalities. 

Re Mississauga: it's almost like Toronto-Danforth in reverse.

And isn't Greater Sudbury and Nickel Belt practically one and the same?  Better off calling it Nickel Belt-Sturgeon Falls, then...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 03, 2018, 10:36:10 am
'Cape Breton by the Sea' is hilarious given a) rather obviously all of Cape Breton is by the sea and b) that the riding covers some of the most horrifying postindustrial dystopia in all North America...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: c r a b c a k e on December 03, 2018, 06:09:04 pm
I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on December 03, 2018, 06:28:42 pm
I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

Unless oil rebounds strongly, they will be lucky to hold the two seats they hold.  While not Trudeau's fault for lack of pipeline being built or low oil prices, being government of the day doesn't help.  That being said Calgary-Confederation is probably the lowest hanging fruit.

In terms of Tories attacks, agreed as the base hates Trudeau with a passion but amongst swing voters they don't love Trudeau but don't either hate him with a passion.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Njall on December 06, 2018, 11:27:28 am
I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

Unless oil rebounds strongly, they will be lucky to hold the two seats they hold.  While not Trudeau's fault for lack of pipeline being built or low oil prices, being government of the day doesn't help.  That being said Calgary-Confederation is probably the lowest hanging fruit.

In terms of Tories attacks, agreed as the base hates Trudeau with a passion but amongst swing voters they don't love Trudeau but don't either hate him with a passion.

I would be very surprised if my hometown swung any more towards the Liberals in 2019. Had Hehr and Kang not both received sexual harassment allegations, they may have been able to keep their seats, but the Liberals now have pretty slim odds in both seats. That said, it's worth noting that Calgary Skyview behaves very differently than the rest of Calgary, so if the Liberals find a strong on-the-ground candidate and Kang doesn't try to run as an Indy, they could still win. Depending on candidates, Centre and Confederation will be close, but ultimately I think the Conservatives will win both.

Calgary is an interesting case because it has a growing small-l liberal streak, but still votes big-C Conservative in partisan elections overall. With a rapidly expanding, young, and highly educated population, Calgary will continue to become friendlier to progressive candidates as time goes on, but it will take time and a concentrated effort by parties and candidates to break the Conservative hold on the city.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ishan on December 06, 2018, 04:47:57 pm
How come Singh is running in BC when he lives in Ontario


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on December 06, 2018, 07:18:30 pm
How come Singh is running in BC when he lives in Ontario

B/c after his shaky start as leader, he was under intense pressure to get into the Commons sooner rather than later, so he announced in August that he'd run in the eventual by-election in Burnaby South, which was vacated in mid-September by former NDP MP Kennedy Stewart so he could run for Mayor of Vancouver. Unfortunately, not being a fortune teller, he couldn't predict that the MP for the riding he represented for 6 years in the Ontario legislature (& in which he'd likely coast to victory) would resign, so if he says he's changing his mind & running in Brampton, then not only does that screw over the Burnaby NDP, but it also makes him look like a huge hypocrite after declaring he'd run in BC.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on December 07, 2018, 02:33:42 am
How come Singh is running in BC when he lives in Ontario

Because all of Canada is now a suburb of Toronto :)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on December 08, 2018, 07:00:43 am
I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Agreed, but what would you propose as an alternative strategy?

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

Long term sure, but in the short term, low oil prices and lack of pipeline progress have pushed unemployment well over the national average. That negative Tory campaign during a recession strategy that you mentioned would be more applicable here than the rest of the country. The Liberals are already down 7-8% since the last election in Alberta and its not like they had much room to fall outside the big cities.

Plus, as Miles mentioned, both of the Liberal Calgary MP's have been MeToo'd which doesn't help.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: c r a b c a k e on December 08, 2018, 07:32:58 am

Agreed, but what would you propose as an alternative strategy?


As I understand it, a big problem in Canada at the moment is that although baseline growth is good, wages are stagnant and cost of living expenses are rising. I'd base a national conervative campaign on those sort of lines: GST cuts, vigorously campaign against carbon taxes (which of course worked very well for the LNP, although Miles post above suggests that isn't enough at the moment) and, most importantly, further immigration (note I don't mean a "Muslims will eat your kids" campaign, which isn't necessary here and has the potential to backfire).

Not groundbreaking stuff as campaign fodder, obviously, but I can't see how the whole "Trudeau is an evil reptilian kitten-eater from another planet" line will actually work, unless the man independently soils his image or the economy collapses and he comes across as Nero at his fiddle.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on December 09, 2018, 03:35:33 pm
Forum's new poll is different from the other polling firms. It gives a Conservative majority.

Conservatives 43%
Liberals 34%
NDP 11%
Greens 6%
Bloc 4%
Others 1%
 
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2908/federal-horserace-december-2018/ (http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2908/federal-horserace-december-2018/)

They don't seem to be polling Bernier's party. Considering the Conservative party has had trouble staying over the mid-30s, at 43% it would be a big shift.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on December 09, 2018, 05:48:18 pm
Léger's November poll is more in line with the average of polls.

Liberal 39%
Conservative 33%
NDP 14%
Green 5%
People 4%
Bloc 4%
Other 1%

Bernier's party demographics is more male and 18-34 of age.

http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Federal%20Politics%20(final)%20-%20November%202018.pdf (http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Federal%20Politics%20(final)%20-%20November%202018.pdf)

There is a section rating satisfaction with actions taken by the government. Regional numbers give a geographic idea even if samples are small.

Creating jobs and economic development: 53% satisfied (highest in Atlantic, lowest in Alberta)
Deploying international policy to restore Canada's image: 51% (high Atlantic, low Alberta)
Legalizing use of recreational cannabis: 48% (high Atlantic, low Quebec)
Renegotiating NAFTA: 48% (high Atlantic Ontario, low Alberta Sask/Man Quebec)
Creating carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gases: 45% (high Quebec, low Alberta)
Incuring deficits to support Canadian economy: 37% (high Ontario Atlantic, low Alberta)
Purchasing Trans Mountain pipeline: 34% (high BC, low Quebec)

On abolishing the monarchy: 39% for, 32% against, 25% don't know (the For option is boosted by the 65% in Quebec)

On how many immigrants Canada welcomes: 9% too few, 40% enough, 45% too many, 5% don't know   


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on December 25, 2018, 04:20:19 pm
Abacus federal poll

LPC 35%
CPC 34%
NDP 17%
Green 7%
Bloc 4%

This firm measured accessible voter pools. 53% would consider voting Liberal, 48% Conservative and 43% NDP, 36% Green and 18% for People's Party.

In BC the accessible voter pool is 54% Liberal, 48% Conservative, 47% NDP
Ontario 59% Liberal, 52% Conservative, 52% NDP
Quebec 50% Liberal, 37% NDP, 33% Conservative, 29% Bloc

They also show to which party voters would go if they changed thir mind.
Quote
If Liberal voters were to switch, 36% would move to the Conservatives, 35% to the NDP and 23% to the Green Party.

If Conservative voters were to switch, 40% would move to the Liberal Party, 27% to the NDP and 15% to the Green Party.

If NDP voters were to switch, 45% would migrate to the Liberals, 28% to the Conservatives and 17% to the Greens.

http://abacusdata.ca/canadas-political-mood-as-2018-comes-to-an-end/ (http://abacusdata.ca/canadas-political-mood-as-2018-comes-to-an-end/)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Thomas D on January 05, 2019, 11:13:23 am
About how many points would all of you say the LPC has to win by to keep their Majority?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on January 05, 2019, 05:59:22 pm
About how many points would all of you say the LPC has to win by to keep their Majority?

I would say with current regional breakdowns Liberals need a 3 to 4 point lead so actually only a few points more to retain their majority.  Tories need about a 10 point lead so still a long ways from a majority.  In fact I figure the Tories need a 2 point lead in the polls just to beat the Liberals in seats.  The reason for this is voter efficiency.  Tories have the same problem Hillary Clinton had, win big in areas they are already strong in so lots of wasted votes (that would be Alberta and Saskatchewan) while Liberals win in a lot more areas but where they win it tends to be by much narrower margins.  The Liberals will likely get below 20% and 10% in far more ridings than the Tories so fewer wasted in votes in no hope areas, while unlike 2015, I suspect there will be few Liberal ridings over 60% and few or any of 70% and probably none over 80% while with the anger at the Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan, I think you will see a lot of over 60%, over 70% and even a few over 80% for the Tories.  Rural Alberta is the Tories' strongest area and there is no place where the Liberals are likely to win as big. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on January 05, 2019, 06:43:56 pm
It also depends on the opposition--that is, if worst case scenarios re Jagmeet Singh's NDP leadership come to pass, we could conceivably see the most "binary" Canadian election in eons, not unlike the 2017 UK election.  In which case, even a modest share difference might not stand in the way of a majority in either direction...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on January 05, 2019, 06:47:53 pm
About how many points would all of you say the LPC has to win by to keep their Majority?

I would say with current regional breakdowns Liberals need a 3 to 4 point lead so actually only a few points more to retain their majority.  Tories need about a 10 point lead so still a long ways from a majority.  In fact I figure the Tories need a 2 point lead in the polls just to beat the Liberals in seats.  The reason for this is voter efficiency.  Tories have the same problem Hillary Clinton had, win big in areas they are already strong in so lots of wasted votes (that would be Alberta and Saskatchewan) while Liberals win in a lot more areas but where they win it tends to be by much narrower margins.  The Liberals will likely get below 20% and 10% in far more ridings than the Tories so fewer wasted in votes in no hope areas, while unlike 2015, I suspect there will be few Liberal ridings over 60% and few or any of 70% and probably none over 80% while with the anger at the Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan, I think you will see a lot of over 60%, over 70% and even a few over 80% for the Tories.  Rural Alberta is the Tories' strongest area and there is no place where the Liberals are likely to win as big.  

Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on January 06, 2019, 03:34:57 pm
Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.

Let's remember that the Libs were disadvantaged in 1979 because *they* had the overly-plumped-vote circumstance--Quebec was for them then what Alberta/Prairies is for CPC presently.

A lot, too, might depend on whether Bernier's PPC has any discernable ballot-box traction, whether as winner or as spoiler...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on January 06, 2019, 06:50:35 pm
Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.

Let's remember that the Libs were disadvantaged in 1979 because *they* had the overly-plumped-vote circumstance--Quebec was for them then what Alberta/Prairies is for CPC presently.

A lot, too, might depend on whether Bernier's PPC has any discernable ballot-box traction, whether as winner or as spoiler...


Ironically it is Alberta not Quebec where Bernier is most popular so if he does gain any traction, probably will be mostly in Conservative strongholds thus reducing their margins but not costing them the seats so more vote efficient.  That being said unless he somehow gets into the debates, I suspect his party will go nowhere.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 06, 2019, 07:25:52 pm
Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.

Let's remember that the Libs were disadvantaged in 1979 because *they* had the overly-plumped-vote circumstance--Quebec was for them then what Alberta/Prairies is for CPC presently.

A lot, too, might depend on whether Bernier's PPC has any discernable ballot-box traction, whether as winner or as spoiler...


Ironically it is Alberta not Quebec where Bernier is most popular so if he does gain any traction, probably will be mostly in Conservative strongholds thus reducing their margins but not costing them the seats so more vote efficient.  That being said unless he somehow gets into the debates, I suspect his party will go nowhere.

If Bernier's party gets back their deposit anywhere besides Beauce, Yellowhead and Calgary Heritage wouldn't be the worst places to do it.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on January 06, 2019, 08:28:00 pm
Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on January 06, 2019, 09:23:38 pm
Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

Deposits were abolished by a judge in 2017.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Jeppe on January 06, 2019, 11:21:18 pm
Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

Mainstreet found a tight race between Bernier and the new CPC candidate, who seems to be a star recruit in his own right.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on January 07, 2019, 01:20:18 am
Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 07, 2019, 05:37:05 am
Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

Jeppe just posted about that Mainstreet poll. Bernier and the Tories are tied at about 35% in Beauce. Everyone else is around 10%


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: UWS on January 07, 2019, 08:56:12 am
Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

Jeppe just posted about that Mainstreet poll. Bernier and the Tories are tied at about 35% in Beauce. Everyone else is around 10%

If the PLC took 22 % of the vote in Beauce in the last election, maybe Beauce could be winnable for Trudeau.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 08, 2019, 10:14:26 am
Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

Jeppe just posted about that Mainstreet poll. Bernier and the Tories are tied at about 35% in Beauce. Everyone else is around 10%

If the PLC took 22 % of the vote in Beauce in the last election, maybe Beauce could be winnable for Trudeau.

I'm pretty skeptical on that.

The Liberals are more or less matching their 2015 Quebec result. If we re ran the 2015 election and split the 2015 Tory vote equally in two, the Liberal candidate would still be down by 7%. The Tories are actually up in Quebec as well. The only way the Liberals win this seat is the Tory/People's vote spluts perfectly and there's a substanstial trend towards Trudeau in rural Quebec. That riding poll indicates that if there's a trend, it's in the wrong direction for the Grits.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: PSOL on January 08, 2019, 04:13:09 pm
Since a few natives got arrested last night for protesting, I’m curious to see how they vote. Is it split between NDP and the Liberals? Will the recent pipeline controversy lead to a changing voting pattern?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on January 08, 2019, 04:34:33 pm
Since a few natives got arrested last night for protesting, I’m curious to see how they vote. Is it split between NDP and the Liberals? Will the recent pipeline controversy lead to a changing voting pattern?

It depends on which band/tribe but usually I find they tend to vote massively behind one, rarely split within any band/tribe but is split overall as one band might go massively NDP another massively Liberal.  Add to the fact turnout amongst First Nations tends to be very low in fact many deliberately refuse to vote as they feel it legitimizes being colonized.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 08, 2019, 09:20:02 pm
Since a few natives got arrested last night for protesting, I’m curious to see how they vote. Is it split between NDP and the Liberals? Will the recent pipeline controversy lead to a changing voting pattern?

To add to what Miles said, there's a weird southernesque racial voting pattern in northern Mantoba and Sasketchewan.

If you look at poll maps for thos ridings on

http://www.election-atlas.ca

In those areas the white areas will vote 80%+ or the Tories, and the reservations will vote NDP/Liberal by similar margins.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on January 09, 2019, 07:21:49 pm
To add to what Miles said, there's a weird southernesque racial voting pattern in northern Mantoba and Sasketchewan.

If you look at poll maps for thos ridings on

http://www.election-atlas.ca

In those areas the white areas will vote 80%+ or the Tories, and the reservations will vote NDP/Liberal by similar margins.

That even goes for southern ManSask ridings: other than major urban centres, the patches of non-blue tend to be reserves.  (Or to a limited extent and depending on the election and place, Metis.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on January 10, 2019, 12:13:00 pm
Scott Brison is not running for re-election.  Since this was a Tory stronghold before he crossed the floor, this would normally make this a target for the Tories, but with how badly they were damaged in 2015, I suspect the Liberals should be able to hold this even if not quite the same blowout as in 2015.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 10, 2019, 12:28:43 pm
Scott Brison is not running for re-election.  Since this was a Tory stronghold before he crossed the floor, this would normally make this a target for the Tories, but with how badly they were damaged in 2015, I suspect the Liberals should be able to hold this even if not quite the same blowout as in 2015.

Preface: I still think the Liberals win Kings-Hants rather comfortably.

The Tories have recovered quite a bit in Atlantic Canada, and rural Anglo ridings are the sort of place where I would expect the recovery to disproportionately occur. Also, local politics matter a lot more out east, so Brison's departure will hurt the Liberals more than a typical popular cabinet retirement. The Tories could scrape out a victory if everything goes right.

My actual prediction for a surprise Tory win is Cumberland-Colchester.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on January 10, 2019, 07:52:51 pm
Scott Brison is not running for re-election.  Since this was a Tory stronghold before he crossed the floor, this would normally make this a target for the Tories, but with how badly they were damaged in 2015, I suspect the Liberals should be able to hold this even if not quite the same blowout as in 2015.

Preface: I still think the Liberals win Kings-Hants rather comfortably.

The Tories have recovered quite a bit in Atlantic Canada, and rural Anglo ridings are the sort of place where I would expect the recovery to disproportionately occur. Also, local politics matter a lot more out east, so Brison's departure will hurt the Liberals more than a typical popular cabinet retirement. The Tories could scrape out a victory if everything goes right.

My actual prediction for a surprise Tory win is Cumberland-Colchester.

I wouldn't call it that much of a "surprise"; Bill Casey's about the only thing in the way of its becoming the likeliest Tory pickup in Nova Scotia--probably because it's the least "Celtic fringe" of NS's rural-based seats (i.e. more of a synergy w/Anglo New Brunswick)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 22, 2019, 08:50:43 am
Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on January 22, 2019, 09:17:44 am
Also, for Conservatives, they have Robert Coutu, mayor of Montréal-Est in La-Pointe-de-l'Île running against former Bloc leader Mario Beaulieu.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on January 22, 2019, 09:32:04 am
Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.


Interesting, so is the NDP:

Andrew Cash in Davenport (defeated in 2015, a good fighting chance, still lean-LPC, but that's a strong candidate for the NDP)

Svend Robinson in Burnaby North-Seymour (did not run again in 2004, a good chance as well in a three way race)

I expect some of the class of 2011, who were defeated in 2015 in Quebec might run again as well


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DOWnward Spiral on January 22, 2019, 11:04:17 am
Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.


oh god I read that as Roy Moore


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on January 22, 2019, 04:41:14 pm
Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.


Interesting, so is the NDP:

Andrew Cash in Davenport (defeated in 2015, a good fighting chance, still lean-LPC, but that's a strong candidate for the NDP)

Svend Robinson in Burnaby North-Seymour (did not run again in 2004, a good chance as well in a three way race)
Yasss


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 24, 2019, 10:03:19 am
Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: jaichind on January 24, 2019, 10:20:32 am
Going by what took place last few election cycles it seems most polls are fairly useless until the last 2-3 weeks before the election.  Is that because Canadians are more fickle or the nature of a 3 party system  manes that votes are more likely to be tactically minded and more likely to shift how they vote up until right before the election.   


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: the506 on January 24, 2019, 08:59:35 pm
Going by what took place last few election cycles it seems most polls are fairly useless until the last 2-3 weeks before the election.  Is that because Canadians are more fickle or the nature of a 3 party system  manes that votes are more likely to be tactically minded and more likely to shift how they vote up until right before the election.   

Both really.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on January 25, 2019, 08:18:10 am
Going by what took place last few election cycles it seems most polls are fairly useless until the last 2-3 weeks before the election.  Is that because Canadians are more fickle or the nature of a 3 party system  manes that votes are more likely to be tactically minded and more likely to shift how they vote up until right before the election.   

Both really.

Also remember, in some Provinces and Riding's it can be 4-way races if you include the BQ in Quebec and the Greens in BC and select individual riding's... 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on January 27, 2019, 09:08:41 pm
Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

He has said in the Montérégie region but not the specific riding.
There is one Bloc MP in the region and he's running again so Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will not run in that one. PQ MNA Catherine Fournier was elected in the provincial riding of Marie-Victorin (part of Longueuil) and he could benefit from her help. Problem is that part of Longueuil is in the federal ridign Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne which includes not Bloc friendly part like Greenfield Park. Maybe it's more difficult to beat an incumbent Liberal MP so Blanchet is looking at the NDP held ridings (also targeted by Liberals).

It could be Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. Might wait to see if NDP MP is running and maybe who could be the Liberal candidate. Bloc finished third there but I think it's better to be parachuted in a more urban riding than rural (less territory to cover in campaign and usually less important to have a local figure). If Blanchet wants to avoid to face a Liberal MP, other possibilities are Salaberry-Suroit, Saint-Hyacinthe and Beloeil-Chambly. The first two have a regional city with many rural small towns so not ideal for someone from outside to land there in my opinion. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on January 27, 2019, 11:11:33 pm
The Quebec Premier has started a list of demands to federal parties ahead of the federal election.

Have a single income tax return for provincial and federal government managed by Quebec
$300 million in compensation for costs incurred by asylum seekers crossing the border
More power over the selection of immigrants
Funding for public transit projects
Compensation for dairy farmers hurt by the Nafta renegotiation

The filing of a single tax return managed by Quebec was a motion supported by all parties in the National assembly last year. Conservatives and Bloc are for it. NDP adopted it as policy last year but seem to have changed their mind and no longer support it, the Liberals look like they are against.

Scheer has presented five policies to appeal to Quebec:
More autonomy over immigration
Single income tax return
Name a Quebec minister in charge of the federal economic development agency for Quebec
Incentive for retirees to work
Invest to stop wastewater flowing in rivers

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/ (https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/)   


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on January 28, 2019, 12:03:55 am
The Quebec Premier has started a list of demands to federal parties ahead of the federal election.

Have a single income tax return for provincial and federal government managed by Quebec
$300 million in compensation for costs incurred by asylum seekers crossing the border
More power over the selection of immigrants
Funding for public transit projects
Compensation for dairy farmers hurt by the Nafta renegotiation

The filing of a single tax return managed by Quebec was a motion supported by all parties in the National assembly last year. Conservatives and Bloc are for it. NDP adopted it as policy last year but seem to have changed their mind and no longer support it, the Liberals look like they are against.

Scheer has presented five policies to appeal to Quebec:
More autonomy over immigration
Single income tax return
Name a Quebec minister in charge of the federal economic development agency for Quebec
Incentive for retirees to work
Invest to stop wastewater flowing in rivers

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/ (https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/)   

Pandering.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Krago on January 28, 2019, 05:25:32 pm
Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

He has said in the Montérégie region but not the specific riding.
There is one Bloc MP in the region and he's running again so Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will not run in that one. PQ MNA Catherine Fournier was elected in the provincial riding of Marie-Victorin (part of Longueuil) and he could benefit from her help. Problem is that part of Longueuil is in the federal ridign Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne which includes not Bloc friendly part like Greenfield Park. Maybe it's more difficult to beat an incumbent Liberal MP so Blanchet is looking at the NDP held ridings (also targeted by Liberals).

It could be Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. Might wait to see if NDP MP is running and maybe who could be the Liberal candidate. Bloc finished third there but I think it's better to be parachuted in a more urban riding than rural (less territory to cover in campaign and usually less important to have a local figure). If Blanchet wants to avoid to face a Liberal MP, other possibilities are Salaberry-Suroit, Saint-Hyacinthe and Beloeil-Chambly. The first two have a regional city with many rural small towns so not ideal for someone from outside to land there in my opinion. 

He's from Drummondville, and Drummond is currently represented by an NDP MP (Francois Choquette).  He represented Drummond in the National Assembly from 2008-2012, and then Johnson from 2012-2014.  My bet is that he will run there.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on January 28, 2019, 05:35:19 pm
Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

He has said in the Montérégie region but not the specific riding.
There is one Bloc MP in the region and he's running again so Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will not run in that one. PQ MNA Catherine Fournier was elected in the provincial riding of Marie-Victorin (part of Longueuil) and he could benefit from her help. Problem is that part of Longueuil is in the federal ridign Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne which includes not Bloc friendly part like Greenfield Park. Maybe it's more difficult to beat an incumbent Liberal MP so Blanchet is looking at the NDP held ridings (also targeted by Liberals).

It could be Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. Might wait to see if NDP MP is running and maybe who could be the Liberal candidate. Bloc finished third there but I think it's better to be parachuted in a more urban riding than rural (less territory to cover in campaign and usually less important to have a local figure). If Blanchet wants to avoid to face a Liberal MP, other possibilities are Salaberry-Suroit, Saint-Hyacinthe and Beloeil-Chambly. The first two have a regional city with many rural small towns so not ideal for someone from outside to land there in my opinion. 

He's from Drummondville, and Drummond is currently represented by an NDP MP (Francois Choquette).  He represented Drummond in the National Assembly from 2008-2012, and then Johnson from 2012-2014.  My bet is that he will run there.

https://www.journalexpress.ca/2019/01/28/leffet-yves-francois-blanchet-se-fait-sentir-dans-drummond/

Won't run in Drummond.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on January 28, 2019, 06:22:58 pm
Three former Liberal candidates are considering running for Tory nominations.  This will be interesting as no doubt the Tories can use this as proof the Liberals have abandoned the centre and swung too far to the left.  Might not amount to much, but probably something the Liberals would rather not have or at least they would probably like to get some former Tories to run under their banner in exchange to offset this.

David Bertschi (Liberal candidate 2011 in Ottawa-Orleans) running for Conservative nomination for Orleans.  He endorsed Erin O'Toole back in 2017 as CPC leader so already leaning that way.

Andrew Kania (Liberal MP Brampton West 2008-2011) endorses the Tories and is considering running for them in Brampton South.

Wendy Yuan (Liberal candidate Vancouver-Kingsway 2008 and 2011) running for Tory nomination in Steveston-Richmond East (interestingly enough Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido was first elected in 2000 as a Canadian Alliance MP and for Reform Party in both 1993 and a 1996 by-election so talk about swapping places).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 28, 2019, 06:55:17 pm
The Quebec Premier has started a list of demands to federal parties ahead of the federal election.

Have a single income tax return for provincial and federal government managed by Quebec
$300 million in compensation for costs incurred by asylum seekers crossing the border
More power over the selection of immigrants
Funding for public transit projects
Compensation for dairy farmers hurt by the Nafta renegotiation

The filing of a single tax return managed by Quebec was a motion supported by all parties in the National assembly last year. Conservatives and Bloc are for it. NDP adopted it as policy last year but seem to have changed their mind and no longer support it, the Liberals look like they are against.

Scheer has presented five policies to appeal to Quebec:
More autonomy over immigration
Single income tax return
Name a Quebec minister in charge of the federal economic development agency for Quebec
Incentive for retirees to work
Invest to stop wastewater flowing in rivers

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/ (https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/)   

Pandering.

The path to an overall victory for the tories requires turning a good number of CAQ voters into Con voters, so...yeah they kinda have to pander.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on January 28, 2019, 11:56:51 pm
Three former Liberal candidates are considering running for Tory nominations.  This will be interesting as no doubt the Tories can use this as proof the Liberals have abandoned the centre and swung too far to the left.  Might not amount to much, but probably something the Liberals would rather not have or at least they would probably like to get some former Tories to run under their banner in exchange to offset this.

David Bertschi (Liberal candidate 2011 in Ottawa-Orleans) running for Conservative nomination for Orleans.  He endorsed Erin O'Toole back in 2017 as CPC leader so already leaning that way.

Andrew Kania (Liberal MP Brampton West 2008-2011) endorses the Tories and is considering running for them in Brampton South.

Wendy Yuan (Liberal candidate Vancouver-Kingsway 2008 and 2011) running for Tory nomination in Steveston-Richmond East (interestingly enough Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido was first elected in 2000 as a Canadian Alliance MP and for Reform Party in both 1993 and a 1996 by-election so talk about swapping places).

Steveston-Richmond East is my riding. I'd consider voting for Wendy Yuan over Joe Peschisolido.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on January 31, 2019, 03:39:55 pm
Mainstreet is out today and now the first non-Nanos poll this year.  Liberals big lead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, 6 points ahead in Ontario, while Tories slightly ahead in BC and massive lead in the Prairies.

Liberal 37.2%
Conservative 35.1%
NDP 11.5%
Green 7.2%
BQ 3.5%
PPC 4.2%


Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on January 31, 2019, 07:11:23 pm
Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on January 31, 2019, 09:44:26 pm
Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Make Politics Boring Again on January 31, 2019, 10:30:38 pm
Given Mainstreet's track record in recent years, perhaps we should take their numbers with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 01, 2019, 01:19:41 am
Given Mainstreet's track record in recent years, perhaps we should take their numbers with a grain of salt.

True, but the numbers are very similar to the Nanos numbers.  The only real difference is that Bernier's party has more support.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 01, 2019, 05:43:27 am
Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

If (and that's a big if) they're polling over 1%, it probably depends on region. The People's Party is doing best in Alberta amd Quebec. Quebec, I can see, but I have a hard time imagining Bernier taking many votes from 2015 Alberta NDP supporters. His demographic there would be cranky Tories.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 01, 2019, 10:01:25 pm
MQO research is doing federal polls for each Atlantic province and so far for PEI has Liberals well in front at 52%, Tories in second at 30% while Greens at 10% and NDP at 7%.  That would seem to imply a Liberal sweep while the Tories are doing a lot better than 2015, still got a ways to go before winning seats there, but such shifts would be enough to win seats in New Brunswick.  I suspect Tories will win a few seats in New Brunswick, maybe Nova Scotia depending on how things go, but I don't expect them to win any seats in either PEI or Newfoundland & Labrador.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DabbingSanta on February 01, 2019, 11:20:21 pm
Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

If (and that's a big if) they're polling over 1%, it probably depends on region. The People's Party is doing best in Alberta amd Quebec. Quebec, I can see, but I have a hard time imagining Bernier taking many votes from 2015 Alberta NDP supporters. His demographic there would be cranky Tories.

I think there was a fair number of populist Bernie-Trump voters that many Dems refuse to acknowledge. This group quite possibly swung the election and tipped the Rust Belt. I don't see Bernier gaining the same traction (minor party), but he could gain support among libertarian leaning folks, myself included.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 02, 2019, 05:45:44 pm
Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

If (and that's a big if) they're polling over 1%, it probably depends on region. The People's Party is doing best in Alberta amd Quebec. Quebec, I can see, but I have a hard time imagining Bernier taking many votes from 2015 Alberta NDP supporters. His demographic there would be cranky Tories.

I think there was a fair number of populist Bernie-Trump voters that many Dems refuse to acknowledge. This group quite possibly swung the election and tipped the Rust Belt. I don't see Bernier gaining the same traction (minor party), but he could gain support among libertarian leaning folks, myself included.

I think amongst libertarian leaning folks, it will come down to how close things are in the polls.  If it is clear the Liberals are going to be re-elected anyways, then many might decide to take a chance on him hoping a strong showing by the PPC would influence the Tories in policy and leader next time around.  While if close in the polls like now, I suspect most won't want to risk a vote split as most libertarians I know hate Trudeau with a passion and getting rid of him is more important than getting their ideal leader.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 04, 2019, 07:51:11 am
Leger Quebec poll:  (https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/02/04/bloc-et-conservateurs-a-egalite)39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 06, 2019, 03:07:56 pm
Leger Quebec poll:  (https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/02/04/bloc-et-conservateurs-a-egalite)39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

NDP at 8%?! Geez Louise.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: UWS on February 06, 2019, 03:45:04 pm
Leger Quebec poll:  (https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/02/04/bloc-et-conservateurs-a-egalite)39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 06, 2019, 04:39:07 pm
Leger Quebec poll:  (https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/02/04/bloc-et-conservateurs-a-egalite)39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.

If you get a perfect split, absolutely, although I think Bernier's popularity is overrated in Beauce.  His riding has a large dairy farming industry so it will be interesting how his stance on supply management goes over, but certainly possible.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Smid on February 06, 2019, 04:43:30 pm
Leger Quebec poll:  (https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/02/04/bloc-et-conservateurs-a-egalite)39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.

If you get a perfect split, absolutely, although I think Bernier's popularity is overrated in Beauce.  His riding has a large dairy farming industry so it will be interesting how his stance on supply management goes over, but certainly possible.

He lost his own riding during the leadership ballot, if I recall correctly.

EDIT: Correction/Clarification - I've checked the Wikipedia maps, he led on the first ballot in his riding, however Scheer won a majority of his riding on the final ballot.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 07, 2019, 08:39:10 am
If everything goes perfectly for the Liberals they can win Beauce. I'd put the odds at something like 45-45-10


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 07, 2019, 12:55:51 pm
Leger Quebec poll:  (https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/02/04/bloc-et-conservateurs-a-egalite)39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.

If you get a perfect split, absolutely, although I think Bernier's popularity is overrated in Beauce.  His riding has a large dairy farming industry so it will be interesting how his stance on supply management goes over, but certainly possible.

He lost his own riding during the leadership ballot, if I recall correctly.

EDIT: Correction/Clarification - I've checked the Wikipedia maps, he led on the first ballot in his riding, however Scheer won a majority of his riding on the final ballot.

Ironically I believe his riding has the greatest number of dairy farmers of any riding in Canada and many of them signed up specifically to stop him from becoming leader as he was the only one promising to dismantle supply management which may sell well in Alberta, but does not in rural Quebec.  Legault and Ford maybe small c conservatives but both are strong defenders of supply management as they know it would hurt a lot of their rural support.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 07, 2019, 04:13:59 pm
I'm just going to pop in here and note that Quebec in 2015 was:

35.7 Lib
16.7 Con
25.4 NDP
19.3 BQ
2.4 Other

So the poll has Libs up 3, Con up 4, BQ up 2, Bernier gaining 6, and and NDP down 17.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 08, 2019, 06:06:40 am
I'm just going to pop in here and note that Quebec in 2015 was:

35.7 Lib
16.7 Con
25.4 NDP
19.3 BQ
2.4 Other

So the poll has Libs up 3, Con up 4, BQ up 2, Bernier gaining 6, and and NDP down 17.

Nowhere to go but up!


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on February 08, 2019, 07:12:39 am

Really?  Except for 1965 and 1988, single digits was the NDP norm for QC pre-2008.  The main thing standing in the way of that now is token incumbent seat bounce...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 08, 2019, 07:14:37 am

Really?  Except for 1965 and 1988, single digits was the NDP norm for QC pre-2008.  The main thing standing in the way of that now is token incumbent seat bounce...

It's like at a hockey game when your team is trailing 5-1 with 5 minutes to go, and the other team scores to make it 6-1.  I always say "this will just make the comeback all the more exciting!" :)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 13, 2019, 09:37:03 am
Long time Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney-Victoria) will not reoffer in October. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/sydney-victoria-mp-mark-eyking-won-t-reoffer-in-2019-fall-election-1.5016477) Should still be a safe Liberal seat. Other Nova Scotia Liberals not running again are Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester), Scott Brison (Kings-Hants) and Colin Fraser (West Nova), all of which will be more interesting races than Sydney to one degree or another.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 13, 2019, 02:17:42 pm
Long time Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney-Victoria) will not reoffer in October. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/sydney-victoria-mp-mark-eyking-won-t-reoffer-in-2019-fall-election-1.5016477) Should still be a safe Liberal seat. Other Nova Scotia Liberals not running again are Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester), Scott Brison (Kings-Hants) and Colin Fraser (West Nova), all of which will be more interesting races than Sydney to one degree or another.

Sydney-Victoria is quite safe so don't think the Liberals will have any trouble holding it.  Ironically provincially it went quite heavily PC, but the PCs provincially are Red Tories so lots of crossover votes.  West Nova and Kings-Hants I think will stay Liberal too although probably tighter than 2015, but I think it will take a few elections for the Tories to recover from the 2015 disaster.  Cumberland-Colchester I could see flipping, in fact of the Nova Scotia ridings it is the only one I think the Tories have a reasonably decent shot at.  Although wouldn't be surprised if it stays Liberal as I doubt the Tories will get over 50% there and with NDP being so weak, 40% might not be enough.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 13, 2019, 02:25:52 pm
With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 13, 2019, 03:02:31 pm
Long time Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney-Victoria) will not reoffer in October. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/sydney-victoria-mp-mark-eyking-won-t-reoffer-in-2019-fall-election-1.5016477) Should still be a safe Liberal seat. Other Nova Scotia Liberals not running again are Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester), Scott Brison (Kings-Hants) and Colin Fraser (West Nova), all of which will be more interesting races than Sydney to one degree or another.

Sydney-Victoria is quite safe so don't think the Liberals will have any trouble holding it.  Ironically provincially it went quite heavily PC, but the PCs provincially are Red Tories so lots of crossover votes.  West Nova and Kings-Hants I think will stay Liberal too although probably tighter than 2015, but I think it will take a few elections for the Tories to recover from the 2015 disaster.  Cumberland-Colchester I could see flipping, in fact of the Nova Scotia ridings it is the only one I think the Tories have a reasonably decent shot at.  Although wouldn't be surprised if it stays Liberal as I doubt the Tories will get over 50% there and with NDP being so weak, 40% might not be enough.

Yeah, the Tory situation in Cape Breton is really weird right now. Cape Bretoners tend to really dislike the Tories, even the provincial red ones. It was the base of the provincial Liberals for a very long time. Cape Breton is having a healthcare crisis right now due to an aging population, being unattractive to physicians etc, and they have way more hospitals per capita than the rest of the province, which are going to be consolidated. The provincial Liberals have done a poor job managing the issue, and the last Tory leader (who wasn't especially effective otherwise) did a very good job of exploiting it.

West Nova I can see as sleeper as the Tories have a star Francophone candidate.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on February 13, 2019, 05:41:42 pm
With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 13, 2019, 11:19:01 pm
With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on February 16, 2019, 10:34:02 pm
Well it was nice having Ruth Ellen Brosseau in parliament


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RedPrometheus on February 17, 2019, 08:30:30 am
With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.

The PM’s office might have interfered in judicial proceedings and people in Quebec might say that that is great???


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 17, 2019, 09:00:02 am
With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.

The PM’s office might have interfered in judicial proceedings and people in Quebec might say that that is great???

The Quebecois are quite protective of their institutions. SNC-Lavalin (the corporation at the centre of all this), is a major employer and one of a handful of major global companies based in Quebec. The expectation is that Quebecois voters will look the other way on the scandal. Punditry seems to confirm this, with Francophone newspapers apparently taking a much more sympathetic approach to the affair than the Anglo media.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on February 17, 2019, 10:56:02 am
With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.

The PM’s office might have interfered in judicial proceedings and people in Quebec might say that that is great???

Yes, the view here is than some Ontarians/Anglophone high-ranking public servants in Justice Ministry and Ontarian newspapers are teaming up to destroy a Quebec company.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 17, 2019, 01:12:22 pm
First post scandal poll is out from Campaign Research (https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2019/02/13/Conservative-Party-has-a-clear-lead-over-the-Liberal-Party-just-8-months-out-from-the-electionurl)

Conservative: 37%
Liberal: 32%
NDP: 14%
Green: 7%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 3%

Large change from pre-scandal polling but not a major shift from the last Campaign Research poll, which had the Liberals and Tories statistically tied.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on February 18, 2019, 01:22:44 am
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 18, 2019, 05:51:22 am
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 18, 2019, 11:57:05 am
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 18, 2019, 12:02:45 pm
First post scandal poll is out from Campaign Research (https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2019/02/13/Conservative-Party-has-a-clear-lead-over-the-Liberal-Party-just-8-months-out-from-the-electionurl)

Conservative: 37%
Liberal: 32%
NDP: 14%
Green: 7%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 3%

Large change from pre-scandal polling but not a major shift from the last Campaign Research poll, which had the Liberals and Tories statistically tied.

Could be accurate but this is Nick Kouvalis' firm.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: clash on February 18, 2019, 06:12:34 pm
He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 19, 2019, 12:03:57 am
He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on February 19, 2019, 01:52:30 am
He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 19, 2019, 02:00:07 am
He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.

His principle secretary just resigned in a way that made no sense "I'm resigning because I've done nothing wrong."  (He said he's resigning so that he can better defend himself.  Of course, to many people, his resignation will be seen as an admission of guilt, so he's hardly set himself up well.)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is the only one on the ladder who's higher.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As to the scandal itself, there is no question the right wing media (Post Media, Global News and Corus Entertainment) and the Conservative Party are both completely insincere on this and only a fool could believe that a Conservative government under Andrew Scheer would not be more corrupt.

When the hysteria over the woman jailed in the healing lodge came up, the Liberals defended the decision to place her there by pointing out the independence of the prison system and the criminal justice system. At that time, the Conservatives and the right wing media argued "nobody understands or cares about an abstract issue like an independent criminal justice system, and nobody should care."

However, now both are insincerely claiming there is nothing more important than an independent judicial system. For both the Conservatives and the right wing media this is nothing more than scoring political points and trying to get resignations.  

That the noxious and hyper-partisan Pierre Polievre is one of the Conservative Party leads on this whole thing should tell everybody that Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives don't give a rat's ass about the underlying issue of an independent criminal justice system.

However, for people like me who do see the need for an independent criminal justice system, the evidence seems fairly clear that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did attempt to interfere and therefore is not fit to be Prime Minister.

That Andrew Scheer is not fit to be Prime Minister is beyond clear.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on February 19, 2019, 02:34:03 am
He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.


I would rather have Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose in a landslide so Andrew Scheer has the mandate to accomplish all the things Stephen Harper was unable to do on his agenda and more.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 19, 2019, 02:37:43 am
He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.


I would rather have Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose in a landslide so Andrew Scheer has the mandate to accomplish all the things Stephen Harper was unable to do on his agenda and more.



You want to see Canada become as neo-feudalist as the United States is?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on February 19, 2019, 03:52:03 am
He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.


I would rather have Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose in a landslide so Andrew Scheer has the mandate to accomplish all the things Stephen Harper was unable to do on his agenda and more.



You want to see Canada become as neo-feudalist as the United States is?

No I want Canada to thrive economically like the US


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 19, 2019, 04:13:41 am
He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.


I would rather have Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose in a landslide so Andrew Scheer has the mandate to accomplish all the things Stephen Harper was unable to do on his agenda and more.



You want to see Canada become as neo-feudalist as the United States is?

No I want Canada to thrive economically like the US

Canada's economy is doing fine in aggregate and is doing it without a $1 trillion annual federal budget deficit as has been temporarily boosting the U.S economy.

The last thing Canada needs is right wing economics that benefit the wealthy at the expense of everybody else, whether it's through allowing the environment to be used as a free dumping site, tax cuts for the wealthy that promote wealth inequality or what-have-you.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 19, 2019, 09:08:59 am
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 19, 2019, 09:16:48 am
He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.

I think it's more likely that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns.  I certainly hope he is considering doing that.

You must be kidding.

Agreed. It would take a big smoking gun for the PM to resign, and even then, we're so close to an election its more likely the Liberals just go down in defeat with Trudeau rather than change leaders so late in the game.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Korwinist on February 19, 2019, 10:49:42 am
This is going to be a great election for the Greens and PPC.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 19, 2019, 11:18:11 am
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 19, 2019, 12:17:34 pm
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

You're missing my point entirely. My experience with you has been that you are very quick to discuss conservative scandals at home and abroad. If you want to argue about which parties are corrupt fine... But LavScam broke over a week ago. It's potentially a huge scandal in our own backyard. And you didn't say anything about it on Atlas for a week, and when you finally did comment, the first thing you posted was "Tories are bad too".

Looking through this thread, we see a Liberal scandal, and what do you post? A one liner about the PM and paragraphs and paragraphs about how the Tories are bad. Sounds like something a hack would do...If it looks like an anti-Tory hack and talks like a hack... well it's probably a hack.

But dont listen to me, I'm just a hack for a party I don't vote for half the time. After all I did complain about the Liberals being corrupt during a Liberal corruption scandal ::)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 19, 2019, 01:34:19 pm
Quote
 The evidence is pretty clear they are just using this scandal for partisan purposes and don't actually give a rat's ass about due process and equal protection.

Just to back this up:
1.In regards to the healing lodge hysteria, the Conservative Party public safety critic called for Minister Ralph Goodale to personally overturn the decision.

When Goodale argued he did not have the power to do this based on the independence of the Criminal Justice System,  the right wing media (National Post, Corus Entertainment/Global News) argued seemingly all as one "the Liberals are going to have to come up with a better argument than some abstract principle that nobody understands or cares about in order to defuse this situation." (Andrew Coyne would likely have been an exception.)

2.The reports that Andrew Scheer was also meeting with executives from SNC Lavalin, and that this new deferred prosecution option was actually started during the previous Conservative Government. (I don't know if it ever got beyond the civil service stage at that point.)

3.The Conservatives using Pierre Polievre as their lead on this (along with Justice critic Lisa Raitt.)  Among other things, Pierre Polievre wore a shirt with a Conservative Party logo on it to an event that was supposed to be non-partisan in the lead-up to the last election.  I can't think of any greater dog-whistle the Conservatives could be sending to interested supporters of 'we're not actually interested in the independence of the judiciary' than making Pierre Polievre (who isn't even a lawyer) the co-lead on this file.

4.The Harper government using the Justice Minister as a partisan agent during their last term by passing several laws that it knew were unconstitutional just so they could be struck down by the courts, so the Conservatives could fund-raise off of that, and attempt to run against the courts.

In further regard to the right wing media  (of course, this highlights the opposite problem as well, that the institutions themselves can't be trusted to follow due process and equal protection) when Auditor General Michael Fraser's report on the Canada Revenue Agency came out, one of the problems it highlighted was the grossly favored treatment given to wealthy Canadians versus every other Canadian.

Both the Post Media Chain and the Star Chain reported on this report and bullet pointed several of the highlights in the report.  The Star Chain (I usually read the free Star Metro) mentioned this unequal treatment in a bullet point, the right wing Post Media Chain did not.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: BigSkyBob on February 19, 2019, 02:10:05 pm
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

No, his argument simply notes that in this particular case the liberals fall under quite a cloud of suspicion and the other Canadian parties do not. If the accusation are true, then the real criminals sit in government, and not in opposition as you have quite bizarrely asserted previously.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 19, 2019, 02:16:46 pm
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

No, his argument simply notes that in this particular case the liberals fall under quite a cloud of suspicion and the other Canadian parties do not. If the accusation are true, then the real criminals sit in government, and not in opposition as you have quite bizarrely asserted previously.

His line 'but it's the Liberals' stems from a dishonest right wing Canadian narrative that the Liberal Party of Canada is uniquely corrupt and uniquely arrogant.  This is what my comment was addressing.

As my previous post shows, the Conservative Party is thoroughly corrupt. "Morally corrupt" as Maxime Bernier put it.

Nice attempt at a strawman argument though.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: BigSkyBob on February 20, 2019, 06:07:08 am
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

No, his argument simply notes that in this particular case the liberals fall under quite a cloud of suspicion and the other Canadian parties do not. If the accusation are true, then the real criminals sit in government, and not in opposition as you have quite bizarrely asserted previously.

His line 'but it's the Liberals' stems from a dishonest right wing Canadian narrative that the Liberal Party of Canada is uniquely corrupt and uniquely arrogant.  This is what my comment was addressing.

As my previous post shows, the Conservative Party is thoroughly corrupt. "Morally corrupt" as Maxime Bernier put it.

Nice attempt at a strawman argument though.

When you assert that pointing out that this Liberal government in this particular case may have acted in a corrupt fashion is the exact same thing as saying that the "Liberal Party is uniquely corrupt" is a classic example of putting words into another's mouth that they simply did not say so as to argue against a strawman rather than what they actually said.


Now, I understand that you have argued your subjective belief that the Conservative Party of Canada is "morally corrupt." That may, or may not, be true, but, in either case it is  totally irrelevant to any consideration as to whether, or not, the Liberal Party, or more specifically its Premier, acted in a corrupt fashion in this particular case.

My opinion is that paying brides is often a necessary condition for doing business in countries characterized by rampant corruption, and, that passing laws against such bribes, which is more accurately described as being extorted, is a pretentious moral posturing. However, my view didn't prevail, and, the law is what it is. If it is the law, there should be no exception for corporations too big to jail, or too big to fail.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on February 20, 2019, 07:24:38 am
This thread's being, er, distracted by politics.  In the end, it's not about which side is *right* (or clean, or corrupt, or whatever), as much as it's about how the virtues and pitfalls communicate themselves to the voter. 

And at this point, it's still far from clear that it's all a fatal blow to Liberal chances--the election's still a ways off, and the presently-hobbled Libs can ultimately still generate a fair bit of not-the-Cons momentum.  (If this all happened midcampaign, as in the 2006 election, things would be a lot different.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 20, 2019, 08:47:20 am
Ipsos has a new poll (https://globalnews.ca/news/4973581/trudeau-government-leaks-support-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould-poll/)

36-34-17
No detailed splits that I could fine. Similar to the Campaign Research poll, it shows a modest bump for the Tories

This thread's being, er, distracted by politics.  In the end, it's not about which side is *right* (or clean, or corrupt, or whatever), as much as it's about how the virtues and pitfalls communicate themselves to the voter. 

And at this point, it's still far from clear that it's all a fatal blow to Liberal chances--the election's still a ways off, and the presently-hobbled Libs can ultimately still generate a fair bit of not-the-Cons momentum.  (If this all happened midcampaign, as in the 2006 election, things would be a lot different.)

Agreed. A knockout blow would require big news after summer break. For now the Tories and NDP are just going to have to hope for a drip drip of bad news stories adds up to something bigger.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 20, 2019, 01:35:30 pm
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

No, his argument simply notes that in this particular case the liberals fall under quite a cloud of suspicion and the other Canadian parties do not. If the accusation are true, then the real criminals sit in government, and not in opposition as you have quite bizarrely asserted previously.

His line 'but it's the Liberals' stems from a dishonest right wing Canadian narrative that the Liberal Party of Canada is uniquely corrupt and uniquely arrogant.  This is what my comment was addressing.

As my previous post shows, the Conservative Party is thoroughly corrupt. "Morally corrupt" as Maxime Bernier put it.

Nice attempt at a strawman argument though.

When you assert that pointing out that this Liberal government in this particular case may have acted in a corrupt fashion is the exact same thing as saying that the "Liberal Party is uniquely corrupt" is a classic example of putting words into another's mouth that they simply did not say so as to argue against a strawman rather than what they actually said.


Now, I understand that you have argued your subjective belief that the Conservative Party of Canada is "morally corrupt." That may, or may not, be true, but, in either case it is  totally irrelevant to any consideration as to whether, or not, the Liberal Party, or more specifically its Premier, acted in a corrupt fashion in this particular case.

My opinion is that paying brides is often a necessary condition for doing business in countries characterized by rampant corruption, and, that passing laws against such bribes, which is more accurately described as being extorted, is a pretentious moral posturing. However, my view didn't prevail, and, the law is what it is. If it is the law, there should be no exception for corporations too big to jail, or too big to fail.


Absolutely not.  The use of a phrase such as 'but it's the Liberals' doesn't come from nowhere.  I explained the narrative that buttresses the phrase and it's a false narrative.

This really isn't worth debating, especially with a person whose signature indicates they are a supporter of Traitor Trump.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: BigSkyBob on February 20, 2019, 05:51:02 pm
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

No, his argument simply notes that in this particular case the liberals fall under quite a cloud of suspicion and the other Canadian parties do not. If the accusation are true, then the real criminals sit in government, and not in opposition as you have quite bizarrely asserted previously.

His line 'but it's the Liberals' stems from a dishonest right wing Canadian narrative that the Liberal Party of Canada is uniquely corrupt and uniquely arrogant.  This is what my comment was addressing.

As my previous post shows, the Conservative Party is thoroughly corrupt. "Morally corrupt" as Maxime Bernier put it.

Nice attempt at a strawman argument though.

When you assert that pointing out that this Liberal government in this particular case may have acted in a corrupt fashion is the exact same thing as saying that the "Liberal Party is uniquely corrupt" is a classic example of putting words into another's mouth that they simply did not say so as to argue against a strawman rather than what they actually said.


Now, I understand that you have argued your subjective belief that the Conservative Party of Canada is "morally corrupt." That may, or may not, be true, but, in either case it is  totally irrelevant to any consideration as to whether, or not, the Liberal Party, or more specifically its Premier, acted in a corrupt fashion in this particular case.

My opinion is that paying brides is often a necessary condition for doing business in countries characterized by rampant corruption, and, that passing laws against such bribes, which is more accurately described as being extorted, is a pretentious moral posturing. However, my view didn't prevail, and, the law is what it is. If it is the law, there should be no exception for corporations too big to jail, or too big to fail.


Absolutely not.  The use of a phrase such as 'but it's the Liberals' doesn't come from nowhere.  I explained the narrative that buttresses the phrase and it's a false narrative.

This really isn't worth debating, especially with a person whose signature indicates they are a supporter of Traitor Trump.

The phrase "but it's the Liberals'" certainly comes from somewhere, but, your claim that it is a statement that the Liberal Party of Canada is "uniquely corrupt" originates in your imagination. In this very thread you have bizarrely asserted that the Conservatives are especially corrupt by such means as guilt by association tactics and criminalizing politics. Well, folks on the other side are equally entitled to argue that the Liberal Party of Canada is especially corrupt, as well. But, you simply won't grant them that privilege. In an act of rhetoric that allows for no dissent from your viewpoint you claim that any noting of corruption by the Liberal Party of Canada, and more specifically its premier, is actually a claim that only corruption exists in one party. That is morally wrong, and, intellectually indefensible.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on February 20, 2019, 05:54:14 pm
Ipsos has a new poll (https://globalnews.ca/news/4973581/trudeau-government-leaks-support-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould-poll/)

36-34-17
No detailed splits that I could fine. Similar to the Campaign Research poll, it shows a modest bump for the Tories

This thread's being, er, distracted by politics.  In the end, it's not about which side is *right* (or clean, or corrupt, or whatever), as much as it's about how the virtues and pitfalls communicate themselves to the voter. 

And at this point, it's still far from clear that it's all a fatal blow to Liberal chances--the election's still a ways off, and the presently-hobbled Libs can ultimately still generate a fair bit of not-the-Cons momentum.  (If this all happened midcampaign, as in the 2006 election, things would be a lot different.)

Agreed. A knockout blow would require big news after summer break. For now the Tories and NDP are just going to have to hope for a drip drip of bad news stories adds up to something bigger.

And whatever the scandal, either side is going to be handicapped for being "who they are" to a certain type of voter of an opposite inclination.  That's why holding-one's-nose strategic voting has *always* existed--indeed, it might be argued that the current Lib circumstance might ironically push *more* panicky voters (presumably of the ex-NDP/Green sort) into the Lib camp so as to desperately try to deny the Cons a majority...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 20, 2019, 08:21:21 pm
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.

For someone who goes to such efforts to chronicle GOP misbehaviour south of the border, that your first response to a Canadian Liberal scandal on Atlas was #BothSidesTenYearsAgo is rather telling.

Hacks gonna hack I guess.

Your argument was 'but it's the Liberals' which implies either that the Liberals are inherently corrupt or are worse than the other political parties.  What response other than what I gave would you expect?

If you want to see a Conservative Party hack, take a look in the mirror.

No, his argument simply notes that in this particular case the liberals fall under quite a cloud of suspicion and the other Canadian parties do not. If the accusation are true, then the real criminals sit in government, and not in opposition as you have quite bizarrely asserted previously.

His line 'but it's the Liberals' stems from a dishonest right wing Canadian narrative that the Liberal Party of Canada is uniquely corrupt and uniquely arrogant.  This is what my comment was addressing.

As my previous post shows, the Conservative Party is thoroughly corrupt. "Morally corrupt" as Maxime Bernier put it.

Nice attempt at a strawman argument though.

When you assert that pointing out that this Liberal government in this particular case may have acted in a corrupt fashion is the exact same thing as saying that the "Liberal Party is uniquely corrupt" is a classic example of putting words into another's mouth that they simply did not say so as to argue against a strawman rather than what they actually said.


Now, I understand that you have argued your subjective belief that the Conservative Party of Canada is "morally corrupt." That may, or may not, be true, but, in either case it is  totally irrelevant to any consideration as to whether, or not, the Liberal Party, or more specifically its Premier, acted in a corrupt fashion in this particular case.

My opinion is that paying brides is often a necessary condition for doing business in countries characterized by rampant corruption, and, that passing laws against such bribes, which is more accurately described as being extorted, is a pretentious moral posturing. However, my view didn't prevail, and, the law is what it is. If it is the law, there should be no exception for corporations too big to jail, or too big to fail.


Absolutely not.  The use of a phrase such as 'but it's the Liberals' doesn't come from nowhere.  I explained the narrative that buttresses the phrase and it's a false narrative.

This really isn't worth debating, especially with a person whose signature indicates they are a supporter of Traitor Trump.

The phrase "but it's the Liberals'" certainly comes from somewhere, but, your claim that it is a statement that the Liberal Party of Canada is "uniquely corrupt" originates in your imagination. In this very thread you have bizarrely asserted that the Conservatives are especially corrupt by such means as guilt by association tactics and criminalizing politics. Well, folks on the other side are equally entitled to argue that the Liberal Party of Canada is especially corrupt, as well. But, you simply won't grant them that privilege. In an act of rhetoric that allows for no dissent from your viewpoint you claim that any noting of corruption by the Liberal Party of Canada, and more specifically its premier, is actually a claim that only corruption exists in one party. That is morally wrong, and, intellectually indefensible.

Gibberish.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on February 20, 2019, 10:05:25 pm
The NDP is a total disaster his year. I wonder if Charlie Angus would have done better. Less than a decade ago, people were saying the Liberals should disband and merge with the NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 21, 2019, 06:08:33 am
Ipsos has a new poll (https://globalnews.ca/news/4973581/trudeau-government-leaks-support-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould-poll/)

36-34-17
No detailed splits that I could fine. Similar to the Campaign Research poll, it shows a modest bump for the Tories

This thread's being, er, distracted by politics.  In the end, it's not about which side is *right* (or clean, or corrupt, or whatever), as much as it's about how the virtues and pitfalls communicate themselves to the voter. 

And at this point, it's still far from clear that it's all a fatal blow to Liberal chances--the election's still a ways off, and the presently-hobbled Libs can ultimately still generate a fair bit of not-the-Cons momentum.  (If this all happened midcampaign, as in the 2006 election, things would be a lot different.)

Agreed. A knockout blow would require big news after summer break. For now the Tories and NDP are just going to have to hope for a drip drip of bad news stories adds up to something bigger.

And whatever the scandal, either side is going to be handicapped for being "who they are" to a certain type of voter of an opposite inclination.  That's why holding-one's-nose strategic voting has *always* existed--indeed, it might be argued that the current Lib circumstance might ironically push *more* panicky voters (presumably of the ex-NDP/Green sort) into the Lib camp so as to desperately try to deny the Cons a majority...

Ah, shades of 2004-2006 :P


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on February 21, 2019, 07:31:40 am
And whatever the scandal, either side is going to be handicapped for being "who they are" to a certain type of voter of an opposite inclination.  That's why holding-one's-nose strategic voting has *always* existed--indeed, it might be argued that the current Lib circumstance might ironically push *more* panicky voters (presumably of the ex-NDP/Green sort) into the Lib camp so as to desperately try to deny the Cons a majority...

Ah, shades of 2004-2006 :P

Or for that matter, the 2010 Toronto mayoral election, where what was polling as a blowout for Rob Ford turned into a 47.1-35.6 Ford-Smitherman margin instead.  (And similarly in 2014, promiscuous progressives piling into the John Tory camp as an antidote to Doug Ford--and maybe provincially in 2018, where Premier Ford's winning margin was much tighter than anything that looked to be in the cards when Patrick Brown was PC leader.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on February 21, 2019, 05:22:18 pm
Ipsos has a new poll (https://globalnews.ca/news/4973581/trudeau-government-leaks-support-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould-poll/)

36-34-17
No detailed splits that I could fine. Similar to the Campaign Research poll, it shows a modest bump for the Tories

Detailed data on Ipsos website:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Liberal-Re-Election-Chances-in-Jeopardy (https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Liberal-Re-Election-Chances-in-Jeopardy)

Poll was done Feb13-18 so before Butts' resignation..
Tories lead 38% to 32 in Ontario. Liberals still lead in BC with 37%, in Quebec with 38% and Atlantic with 50%.

42% approval of the performance of the government, drop of 9% since December. . 38% government deserve re-election.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on February 21, 2019, 06:35:10 pm
Leger did a poll February 15-19. The difference from the November poll, Liberals -5, Conservatives +3
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Federal-Politics-February-2019-FINAL.pdf (https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Federal-Politics-February-2019-FINAL.pdf)

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 34%
NDP 12%
Greens 8%
Bloc 5%
PPC 4%

In line with Ipsos besides NDP numbers but regional differences from Ipsos, could be due to smaller regional sample. Leger has in Atlantic the Liberals only leading 42% to 36, in Ontario a tie with Liberals 38% to 37, in BC the Liberals only at 22% to Cons 36%% Cons, Manitobas/Sask a tie at 40% (?).

36% are satisfied with the government, a drop of 9% since November, Trudeau drops 7% in the best Prime Minister category but still leads at 26%, Scheer 21%, May 8%, Singh 6%, Bernier 4%.

67% of people are aware of the SNC case.
41% believe the PM did something wrong, 12% no wrong, 41% not sure.

57% want a change in government, 27% government be reelected, 15% don't know.

Maybe because Liberals had more choices than Conservatives but Harper leads the best Prime Minister of the last 50 years with 24%, Pierre Trudeau 22%, Chrétien 19%, Mulroney 13% (Mulroney is first in Quebec)

The second part of the survey is about most important issues, which leader does best on issues and level of immigration.
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Federal-Politics-February-2019-FINAL-day-2.pdf (https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Federal-Politics-February-2019-FINAL-day-2.pdf)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: KaiserDave on February 23, 2019, 01:16:34 pm
Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.
This, Mulcair was a real leader.
Angus would've done much better too.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 25, 2019, 04:53:18 pm


Maybe because Liberals had more choices than Conservatives but Harper leads the best Prime Minister of the last 50 years with 24%, Pierre Trudeau 22%, Chrétien 19%, Mulroney 13% (Mulroney is first in Quebec)



Not surprised Harper came in first, but bet on worst prime-minister would be up there too.  Quite polarizing as for those on the right, he is the only real right wing prime-minister we've ever had (Mulroney and Clark were fairly centrist so more popular amongst swing voters, but probably less so with base) so I would expect pretty much almost everyone who is firmly on the right side of the political spectrum to put him as best.  I suspect pretty much anyone on the left side even if only slightly left of centre would put him as the worst.  Mulroney, and Chretien were close to the centre so Chretien less hated by the right than either Trudeau but less liked by left whereas Mulroney less hated by left than Harper, but less liked by the right than Harper.  Paul Martin, John Turner, Kim Campbell, and Joe Clark were in office for such short periods it is unlikely anyone would have that strong an opinion on them either way.  Whatever one thought at the time, none as PM at least (as cabinet minister different story) left any lasting impacts.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on February 25, 2019, 05:41:42 pm
There was another poll showing the Liberal party losing a few points. It was a Mainstreet poll done in Quebec for Cogeco on February 17.

LPC 40%
CPC 21%
Bloc 17%
NDP 9%
Green 6.5%
PPC 4.6%

76% have heard of the SNC-Lavalin story.
In its decision about SNC's request should government consider economic impact of possible guilty verdict of the company at trial: Yes 52% No 23%

Should government intervene to avoid a trial for SNC and give them a big fine with a remediation agreement or let the judicial process continue its course: 41% intervene, 49% let the judicial process run

Do you believe Prime Minister Trudeau version of the event? Yes 25% No 55%

Are you satisfied with Trudeau's job on this file?
Very satisfied 14.5%
Satisfied 21.7%
Unsatisfied 36%
Very unsatisfied 14%


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on February 26, 2019, 07:11:27 am
Now that the Federal Election is the next big thing, there are a sizeable number of Liberals who haven't yet announced their re-election. There's a few like Yves Robillard and John McKay who are older and would be no surprise, but there are some which were unexpected. A few like Marwan Tabbara have a lot to worry about, but others like Ralph Goodale, Amarjeet Sohi, and Anju Dhillon have not announced yet.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 26, 2019, 04:31:45 pm
Latest polling from Nanos (tracking) (February 22 release) and Angus Reid (February 24 release.) The interesting thing about the polls is that they are in rough agreement regionally save for Quebec.  (Nanos regional breakdown can be found by looking up 'Nanos on the numbers.'

Overall
Nanos
Liberal: 36
Conservative: 34
NDP: 15
Green: 8
B.Q: 4
PPC: 1

Angus Reid
Liberal: 31
Conservative: 38
NDP: 14
Green: 8
B.Q: 4
Others: 5

Atlantic
Nanos
Liberal: 45
Conservative: 31
NDP: 12
Green:8
PPC: 3

Angus Reid
Liberal: 40
Conservative: 34
NDP: 8
Green: 10

Ontario
Nanos
Liberal: 40
Conservative: 34
NDP: 16
Green: 10

Angus Reid
Liberal: 37
Conservative: 40
NDP: 14
Green: 7

Prairies
Nanos
Liberal: 19
Conservative: 57
NDP: 13
Green: 4
PPC: 3

Angus Reid
Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Liberal: 28
Conservative: 50
NDP: 10
Green: 3

Alberta
Liberal: 19
Conservative: 60
NDP: 9
Green: 5

British Columbia
Nanos
Liberal: 33
Conservative: 30
NDP: 20
Green: 16

Angus Reid:
Liberal: 28
Conservative: 33
NDP: 21
Green: 13

Quebec
Nanos
Liberal: 43
Conservative: 15
NDP: 13
Green: 5
B.Q: 16
PPC: 1

Angus Reid
Liberal: 24
Conservative: 24
NDP: 14
Green: 10
B.Q: 22





Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on February 26, 2019, 04:35:22 pm
It could be a meaningless statistical blip for the NDP, but these recent polls suggest the NDP decline has stopped and there is a slight uptick (13 to 14 to 15% with Nanos in the last couple weeks.  Of course within the margin of error.)  

However, to the degree that these polls suggest a possible change in fortune for the NDP, Jagmeet Singh happened to get elected at the right time, as a sustained increase in support would likely be credited to his getting elected to Parliament and his performance in Parliament even though it might be a coincidence.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 28, 2019, 09:25:36 am
Jody Wilson-Raybould appeared before committee yesterday and testified that she faced 'veiled threats' about SNC-Lavalin and, that the group pressuring her included the Prime Minister. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilson-raybould-testifies-justice-committee-1.5035219)

Trudeau's camp has moved from denial to talking about saving jobs in Quebec. Scheer called for the PM to resign, and Singh is calling for an independent inquiry. I think Singh's coming off the best here. Scheer's call for resignation was over the top, and not the best for the opposition electorally either. Trudeau is coming off as cynical talking jobs after the denial, and direct testimony from JWR. I think it's safe to say sunny ways are over.

Will be interested the see the polls in the next week or so.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LoneStarDem on February 28, 2019, 12:37:51 pm
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 28, 2019, 12:48:28 pm
I think at this point it is too early to say the exact fallout.  I expect much like the India trip the Liberals will see a drop in the polls, but with 8 months to go there is still plenty of time to recover.  If the Tories remain in the lead Scheer will come under increased scrutiny so the question will become are people comfortable with him as PM or not and is not implausible people might decide Trudeau is the lesser of two evils.  I think Trudeau's bigger danger is winning another majority will be harder although not impossible.  Also each negative action damages the brand and over time it adds up so even if he wins in 2019, another scandal in his second term might prove fatal in 2023 whereas without this it might have not, otherwise accumulation of baggage.  I think Trudeau handled it quite poorly, mind you Scheer's call for Trudeau's resignation was a bit over the top while Singh's of a public inquiry was probably most reasonable.

We do however live in a more polarized electorate and the 30% or so who are part of the Conservative base, this will just further re-enforce their views while for the progressives whose primary goal is to prevent another Tory government, they might not be as enthusiastic about voting Liberal as in 2015, but unless the NDP pulls ahead of the Liberals they likely still will.  For the shrinking swing vote, it will come down to are they comfortable with Scheer or does he come across as too extreme for them.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 28, 2019, 12:53:47 pm
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Very possible, I think a big question is while the many normally non-voters who showed in 2015 show up again.  Amongst Liberal voters in 2015, the only ones I can see switching to the Tories are those that normally vote conservative and their vote in 2015 was a one off, so simply returning to normal voting patterns and that group on its own is not large enough to get Scheer into government.  Trudeau's bigger problem is much of his win in 2015 was based less on switching voters from other parties over (although did gain a lot of NDP ones from 2011, less so from the Tories), but rather getting many non-voters to show up and vote Liberal.  With this, there is a risk many of the first time voters in 2015 might just stay home whereas the Tory vote is very motivated and you can be sure they will show up.  Otherwise I think turnout is key.  If turnout is again in the high 60s, I still like his odds, but if falls to low 60s gets more competitive and if it falls below 60% then I think the Tories have a good shot.  Actually not just in Canada, but US and UK too turnout seems to be the big factor in determining whether right or left wins as left tends to do better when turnout is high while right when low.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 28, 2019, 04:33:34 pm


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: vileplume on February 28, 2019, 04:41:31 pm
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Very possible, I think a big question is while the many normally non-voters who showed in 2015 show up again.  Amongst Liberal voters in 2015, the only ones I can see switching to the Tories are those that normally vote conservative and their vote in 2015 was a one off, so simply returning to normal voting patterns and that group on its own is not large enough to get Scheer into government.  Trudeau's bigger problem is much of his win in 2015 was based less on switching voters from other parties over (although did gain a lot of NDP ones from 2011, less so from the Tories), but rather getting many non-voters to show up and vote Liberal.  With this, there is a risk many of the first time voters in 2015 might just stay home whereas the Tory vote is very motivated and you can be sure they will show up.  Otherwise I think turnout is key.  If turnout is again in the high 60s, I still like his odds, but if falls to low 60s gets more competitive and if it falls below 60% then I think the Tories have a good shot.  Actually not just in Canada, but US and UK too turnout seems to be the big factor in determining whether right or left wins as left tends to do better when turnout is high while right when low.

That is true to an extent though it's not really cut and dried. In 2017 first time voters and people who didn't vote in 2015 (mostly young, ethnically diverse, economically insecure, remain supporters) broke extremely heavily in Labour's direction and will alone have cost the Tories their majority. However on the other hand people who don't regularly vote turning out for the EU referendum (middle aged to retired people living in small town and post industrial areas) were the main reason why Leave won. If turnout falls amongst these types of people going forward it will help Labour and hurt the Tories. The Lib Dems are the party that benefits most from low turnout though as most low information/irregular voters tend to opt for the party that they want to form the government in general elections i.e. Tory or Labour.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: UWS on February 28, 2019, 04:59:53 pm
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 28, 2019, 05:24:29 pm
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 28, 2019, 05:36:37 pm
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

True, but we should note a few key differences from Adscam/2004: Paul Martin wasn't implicated directly in the scandal like Trudeau is. The Tories had only existed for 6 months on E day 2004 and their predecessors were in chaos. Lastly, the Martin-Liberals were polling much, much higher than the Trudeau-Liberals pre scandal breaking. People were speculating about a 200 seat majority in 2003.

Trudeau could definitely still survive, but I think the comparison to the Sponsorship Scandal only goes so far.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on February 28, 2019, 07:13:36 pm
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

The collateral "bozo factor", though, might be provincial gov'ts (esp. Ford in Ontario, and potentially Kenney in Alberta)--remember how a big reason for 1993's NDP collapse was the perceived catastrophe of the Rae gov't in Ontario, and to a lesser extent turmoil w/the Harcourt gov't in BC; and Mike Harris fright/fatigue arguably didn't help the federal right-of-centre forces in Ontario from the late 90s to well into Harper's term in office...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on February 28, 2019, 08:51:43 pm
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

The collateral "bozo factor", though, might be provincial gov'ts (esp. Ford in Ontario, and potentially Kenney in Alberta)--remember how a big reason for 1993's NDP collapse was the perceived catastrophe of the Rae gov't in Ontario, and to a lesser extent turmoil w/the Harcourt gov't in BC; and Mike Harris fright/fatigue arguably didn't help the federal right-of-centre forces in Ontario from the late 90s to well into Harper's term in office...

Definitely true with Doug Ford, less sure about Kenney.  Agree outside of Alberta he would be quite unpopular, but pretty sure the Tories will win almost every seat in Alberta.  If anything Kenney might be more like Klein who was very popular in Alberta (I don't think Kenney will have Klein like approval ratings though), but widely mocked in the rest of Canada and often used as a whipping boy of what the Tories would be like if they ran federally.  The main problem with that is Kenney will be new on the job and although people have some familiarity of his as federal minister any unpopular harmful policies are likely to come after the election not before. 

At the same time Wynne's popularity even in October 2015 was not much different than Ford's is now and didn't stop Trudeau from winning in Ontario.  Yes her popularity fell quite a bit after and true I think she probably did more harm than good for Trudeau there, after all the Tory vote held up better in Ontario that it did in BC, Manitoba, or Atlantic Canada where they saw much bigger drops thus suggesting if Wynne weren't premier Tories probably would have done even worse.

 That being said with relatively few Liberal premiers that does help Trudeau and with mostly small c conservative ones that may be somewhat problematic for Scheer.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Harlow on February 28, 2019, 10:20:51 pm


Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 01, 2019, 07:35:43 am
The collateral "bozo factor", though, might be provincial gov'ts (esp. Ford in Ontario, and potentially Kenney in Alberta)--remember how a big reason for 1993's NDP collapse was the perceived catastrophe of the Rae gov't in Ontario, and to a lesser extent turmoil w/the Harcourt gov't in BC; and Mike Harris fright/fatigue arguably didn't help the federal right-of-centre forces in Ontario from the late 90s to well into Harper's term in office...

Definitely true with Doug Ford, less sure about Kenney.  Agree outside of Alberta he would be quite unpopular, but pretty sure the Tories will win almost every seat in Alberta.  If anything Kenney might be more like Klein who was very popular in Alberta (I don't think Kenney will have Klein like approval ratings though), but widely mocked in the rest of Canada and often used as a whipping boy of what the Tories would be like if they ran federally.  The main problem with that is Kenney will be new on the job and although people have some familiarity of his as federal minister any unpopular harmful policies are likely to come after the election not before. 

At the same time Wynne's popularity even in October 2015 was not much different than Ford's is now and didn't stop Trudeau from winning in Ontario.  Yes her popularity fell quite a bit after and true I think she probably did more harm than good for Trudeau there, after all the Tory vote held up better in Ontario that it did in BC, Manitoba, or Atlantic Canada where they saw much bigger drops thus suggesting if Wynne weren't premier Tories probably would have done even worse.

 That being said with relatively few Liberal premiers that does help Trudeau and with mostly small c conservative ones that may be somewhat problematic for Scheer.

I'm not thinking of Kenney in terms of Alberta, so much as nationwide impressions--much as was the case with Bob Rae in 1993.

And with Wynne in 2015, she and her government still had a soft-focus "good stewards of power" net-plus reputation--by and large, I'd claim she was still more of a Justin-deal-sealing "Premier Mom" net plus than minus at that time.  And as for the Con vote holding up: it's not just a matter of Ontario vs other provinces, it's also about *where* (and among whom) in Ontario and said other provinces.  Like in Manitoba, it was really more of a "Winnipeg" matter--outside of Winnipeg, the patterns were consistent w/the rest of the rural Prairies--and in the Maritimes and BC, it was a matter of vestigial Red Tories and "promiscuous populists", if you will.  And likewise, where the Cons "held up" best in Ontario were more foretellings of patterns that became clear under Ford (eg the more-marginal-than-expected losses in York Region ethnoburbia)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 01, 2019, 08:28:59 am


Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

That's not necessarily true; Yes this has been a green target for a few elections now. But your assuming that the NDP in Victoria, a solidly NDP city both provincially and federally, will not be able to nominate a strong/star candidate. The Greens will also run a strong candidate though, this will be a tight race and interestingly it's not between the two arguably leading parties.

While the Greens did really well in 2012 by-election 34% vs the NDPs 37%, almost winning, come the general election it was 42% NDP vs 32% Green, that was 2015 during the NDP collapse. The LPC and CON vote is already pretty low at 11% each, it might come down to who can get their base out and who can poach more from the LPC.
I think it's too early, I do think Jagmeet being in the house will be a positive boost to the NDP and if Green voters are motivated by opposition to Trans Mountain both parties oppose this, and the NDP is still in the better position with 40+ MPs now. But the NDP have to be really focused here, and really prepared for an all out fight; the NDP policy is already more left and green then 2015 so that might dull the Green vote somewhat. The party may have to be wary of any anti-BCNDP vote, but I don't really see that the provincial gov't is still rather popular with the NDP/green voter (unlike in the 90s).

The NDP knew this was coming, it was known he was not running again earlier in the year but he was waiting till after the by-election to officially announce.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 01, 2019, 09:34:47 am
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

When were the Tories up in 04? The chart on Wikipedia showed them improving from a large deficit, but they never took the lead at least during the campaign.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Harlow on March 01, 2019, 10:22:41 am


Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

That's not necessarily true; Yes this has been a green target for a few elections now. But your assuming that the NDP in Victoria, a solidly NDP city both provincially and federally, will not be able to nominate a strong/star candidate. The Greens will also run a strong candidate though, this will be a tight race and interestingly it's not between the two arguably leading parties.

While the Greens did really well in 2012 by-election 34% vs the NDPs 37%, almost winning, come the general election it was 42% NDP vs 32% Green, that was 2015 during the NDP collapse. The LPC and CON vote is already pretty low at 11% each, it might come down to who can get their base out and who can poach more from the LPC.
I think it's too early, I do think Jagmeet being in the house will be a positive boost to the NDP and if Green voters are motivated by opposition to Trans Mountain both parties oppose this, and the NDP is still in the better position with 40+ MPs now. But the NDP have to be really focused here, and really prepared for an all out fight; the NDP policy is already more left and green then 2015 so that might dull the Green vote somewhat. The party may have to be wary of any anti-BCNDP vote, but I don't really see that the provincial gov't is still rather popular with the NDP/green voter (unlike in the 90s).

The NDP knew this was coming, it was known he was not running again earlier in the year but he was waiting till after the by-election to officially announce.
That all makes sense. I'm just going off of qc125's projections, which puts Victoria at solid Green: http://canada.qc125.com/districts/59041f.htm

The Greens jumped 20 points from 2011 to 2015, and I think it's reasonable to suggest that bodes well for them in 2019.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Not_A_Man on March 01, 2019, 11:40:21 am
In regards to the Greens I guess the question is if this is finally that "Green Surge" or not, I'd guess it depends on how May and Singh perform.

Also, would it be wrong to see this GE as essentially 2 elections?  Tories vs Liberals and NDP vs Greens?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 01, 2019, 12:09:00 pm


Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

That's not necessarily true; Yes this has been a green target for a few elections now. But your assuming that the NDP in Victoria, a solidly NDP city both provincially and federally, will not be able to nominate a strong/star candidate. The Greens will also run a strong candidate though, this will be a tight race and interestingly it's not between the two arguably leading parties.

While the Greens did really well in 2012 by-election 34% vs the NDPs 37%, almost winning, come the general election it was 42% NDP vs 32% Green, that was 2015 during the NDP collapse. The LPC and CON vote is already pretty low at 11% each, it might come down to who can get their base out and who can poach more from the LPC.
I think it's too early, I do think Jagmeet being in the house will be a positive boost to the NDP and if Green voters are motivated by opposition to Trans Mountain both parties oppose this, and the NDP is still in the better position with 40+ MPs now. But the NDP have to be really focused here, and really prepared for an all out fight; the NDP policy is already more left and green then 2015 so that might dull the Green vote somewhat. The party may have to be wary of any anti-BCNDP vote, but I don't really see that the provincial gov't is still rather popular with the NDP/green voter (unlike in the 90s).

The NDP knew this was coming, it was known he was not running again earlier in the year but he was waiting till after the by-election to officially announce.
That all makes sense. I'm just going off of qc125's projections, which puts Victoria at solid Green: http://canada.qc125.com/districts/59041f.htm

The Greens jumped 20 points from 2011 to 2015, and I think it's reasonable to suggest that bodes well for them in 2019.

The last poll in BC, had the Greens at 13% up from 9% in 2015, and i'm certain that's concentrated in the Lower mainland and the Island. I will give that while the NDP saw a decrease the greens have probably been one of the biggest benefactors along with the Liberals. If that continues, say the NDP still only comes out after the election at 14-15% and they can not nominate a strong/star candidate Victoria is likely lost to the Greens. I still think it is premature to say the seat is Green especially since they lost it by 10% last time when the NDP tanked.
Even with the Green success in the Provincial election, they supplanted the BCL as the opposition to the NDP in the two Victoria seats, but topped off at 30%.

It all depends on if Jagmeet and the NDP can regain support, and BC will be one of those places they are going to focus on where they can gain.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 01, 2019, 02:04:20 pm
Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

When were the Tories up in 04? The chart on Wikipedia showed them improving from a large deficit, but they never took the lead at least during the campaign.

They never took a substantial lead but they did poll into a statistical tie and even David Herle is on the record saying in 2004 their own internal tracking showed Harper would have won had the election been held two weeks earlier.  The reason is the Tory vote was more efficient as they only got 9% in Quebec so few wasted votes there while Liberals still got 22% in Alberta so even where the Liberals lost they still got lots of votes while the Tories were irrelevant then in large swaths of the country.  Ironically in 2006 it was the opposite, the Liberal vote was more efficient due to their implosion in Alberta and the strong jump in Tory support to 25% in Quebec.  In fact I believe up until the final weekend there was a real possibility of Liberals winning the popular vote but Tories win more seats.  But after the Randy White tape and stupid remark Paul Martin supported child pornography there was a last minute swing over the final weekend to the Liberals.  If you look in 2004 at advanced polls vs. e-day the difference was noticeable as Tories especially in Ontario won many and in fact in 10 ridings they won in 2004, it was due to advanced polls and actually lost e-day ones.  Now to be fair Tories always seem to do better in advanced polls than e-day ones.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2019, 04:10:52 pm


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 01, 2019, 04:29:12 pm


Ya, that stings... interesting here: some talk he could be eyeing a seat in Victoria? There are already two former NDP MPs in the BC government, Malcolmson (Nanaimo) and Jinny Simms (Surrey-Panorama). where would he run? Stikine is already an NDP riding but Skeena was lost in 2017, would be my bet.
Anyway, big loss for the NDP. But also, it's been on the walls he had already said "he had not made up his mind" if he was running again, likely following Murray's logic that neither one wanted to announce retirement while the Burnaby South by-election was ongoing.

https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/1101590069998243842?fbclid=IwAR2Uf7ReEDG4d9CdIHqf6ZDKpPSdPjQXCYaKH8U0nEc6htgO_TvwCCQaofw


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 01, 2019, 06:46:49 pm
In regards to the Greens I guess the question is if this is finally that "Green Surge" or not, I'd guess it depends on how May and Singh perform.

Also, would it be wrong to see this GE as essentially 2 elections?  Tories vs Liberals and NDP vs Greens?

Remember that when it comes to "scientific" election projection sites, they go by polls; and the Greens have a habit of overpolling btw/elections.  So at this point, I *might* take any done-deal Green prediction for Victoria with a grain of salt.

And at this point, too, I might view the other end of the country instead as goes Green-surge potential.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 01, 2019, 06:48:47 pm
If you look in 2004 at advanced polls vs. e-day the difference was noticeable as Tories especially in Ontario won many and in fact in 10 ridings they won in 2004, it was due to advanced polls and actually lost e-day ones.  Now to be fair Tories always seem to do better in advanced polls than e-day ones.

The "now to be fair" is the important point here.  For that reason, I'd be guarded about using the polls in advance as a barometer.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 02, 2019, 06:52:00 am
Another Layton-Mulcair frontbencher, Nathan Cullen announced he isn't running in 2019.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on March 02, 2019, 10:27:01 pm
Now that the Federal Election is the next big thing, there are a sizeable number of Liberals who haven't yet announced their re-election. There's a few like Yves Robillard and John McKay who are older and would be no surprise, but there are some which were unexpected. A few like Marwan Tabbara have a lot to worry about, but others like Ralph Goodale, Amarjeet Sohi, and Anju Dhillon have not announced yet.

Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 03, 2019, 10:28:06 am

Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

All three, low hanging Conservative fruit.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 03, 2019, 04:46:34 pm
Now that the Federal Election is the next big thing, there are a sizeable number of Liberals who haven't yet announced their re-election. There's a few like Yves Robillard and John McKay who are older and would be no surprise, but there are some which were unexpected. A few like Marwan Tabbara have a lot to worry about, but others like Ralph Goodale, Amarjeet Sohi, and Anju Dhillon have not announced yet.

Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

This doesn't look good for the Liberals as all three went solidly Tory in 2011 and the areas did in the most recent provincial elections while all three were pretty narrow Liberal wins in 2015 suggesting while some may be personal, also suggests a lot of close ridings may very well flip back to the Tories unless they screw up badly.  If it were more random might mean less but when all in close ridings says a lot about what they think their chances are.  I think if long term MPs like Scott Brison, it could be just wanting to spend more time with family, but when first term different story.  I don't believe either NDP or Tories have any first term although NDP has a fair number who were first elected in 2011 while for Tories most are from the 2004 and 2006 class of those not running again.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 03, 2019, 04:50:02 pm
For Nathan Cullen a huge blow, but I am guessing he might run provincially in 2021.  North Coast and Stikine are both NDP held so if either retires possibility there.  May also run in Skeena which could be interesting as both him and current MLA Ellis Ross are high profile although I would put my money on Ellis Ross holding if Nathan Cullen doesn't run, but on Nathan Cullen if he does.

I still think the NDP will hold the riding, but I suspect the Tories will do better than they have in recent elections and will start to look more like it does provincially.  NDP blowouts on coast and Indian Reserves.  Tories win inland towns like Smithers and Terrace, Kitimat could go either way as while traditionally NDP, BC Liberals did win it in 2017 (my guess is LNG as this is supposed to be where one of the major LNG projects are was a big reason), Prince Rupert stays NDP but not a blowout.  Usually Nathan Cullen would win Prince Rupert by 30+ margins whereas provincially usually NDP margins over BC Liberals only around 5 points.  So NDP holds areas where they win provincially, but Tories win the polls the BC Liberals do provincially which is enough to make it closer, but not enough to win it outright.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 03, 2019, 08:05:45 pm
Bold prediction: Trudeau remains PM due to the Liberals taking advantage of an NDP collapse in Quebec.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 03, 2019, 10:30:22 pm
Bold prediction: Trudeau remains PM due to the Liberals taking advantage of an NDP collapse in Quebec.

Nothing bold about that in fact most likely outcome.  Even if Liberals are reduecd to a minority he remains PM.  Heck much like BC, if the Tories only win a plurality of seats the NDP will likely prop up the Liberals much like the Greens are in BC so unless BQ rebounds in Quebex (they won't work with them) or Tories get a majority he remains PM and both those while plausible are not likely.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 03, 2019, 10:40:30 pm
I also think the Ford premiership in Ontario might harm the federal Tories in the province. That's just a hunch, though.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 04, 2019, 08:22:18 am

Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

All three, low hanging Conservative fruit.

Here is the numbers so far from what I've seen:

13 NDP MPs (30% of caucus) not running again, 15 (15% of caucus) Conservatives so far, and 17 (9% of caucus) Liberals and counting, seven of them first-termers. (that's a shock there)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 04, 2019, 04:02:58 pm



Was already posted in the General Discussion thread, but seemed relevant to election analysis.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 04, 2019, 04:05:43 pm
Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 04, 2019, 06:34:21 pm
Here is the numbers so far from what I've seen:

13 NDP MPs (30% of caucus) not running again, 15 (15% of caucus) Conservatives so far, and 17 (9% of caucus) Liberals and counting, seven of them first-termers. (that's a shock there)


I wonder how mny of those first-termers even expected to win in the first place, given how the Libs looked to be potentially a third-party force going into the 2015 election...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 04, 2019, 06:47:29 pm
Here is the numbers so far from what I've seen:

13 NDP MPs (30% of caucus) not running again, 15 (15% of caucus) Conservatives so far, and 17 (9% of caucus) Liberals and counting, seven of them first-termers. (that's a shock there)


I wonder how mny of those first-termers even expected to win in the first place, given how the Libs looked to be potentially a third-party force going into the 2015 election...

It depends, a lot were nominated back in the spring when Liberals were still tied or slightly ahead in the polls.  It was after Alberta election NDP saw a big bump that hurt Liberals as well as Tory attack ads were beginning to take their toll.  Its true in August, I know a number of Liberal party members who more or less wrote him off but many of those back in April still thought he had a good chance and did again in September.  There were probably some but I don't think it was like NDP surge federally in 2011 in Quebec or NDP win in Alberta in 2015 where you had a whole wack of members elected who never thought they would.  Even in Ontario, while I suspect vast majority of NDP MPPs thought they had a shot, probably some were not expecting it.  I don't think Toronto-St. Paul's or St. Catherines were on their target list in March 2018 and likewise I don't think Ottawa West-Nepean was either which they nearly pulled off an upset. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 04, 2019, 06:57:16 pm
Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

By York Region standards, Philpott's win wasn't *that* narrow--in fact, it was the Libs' second best in York after McCallum's seat.  And likewise, provincially, it was the Tories' second lowest share in York (after Newmarket-Aurora) and second lowest margin (after Vaughan-Woodbridge).

And I would say it's because it's the most "Burlingtonian" seat in York Region, i.e. it's got more affluent non-ethnoburban gentility than the rest, the kind that finds CPC/Ford populism a bit on the coarse side.  (Food for thought: in the Ballantrae Golf Club gated community, which one'd "normally" expect to be a Conservative stronghold, the provincial PCs only prevailed over the Liberals by 4 points last year.)



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 04, 2019, 07:13:56 pm
Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

By York Region standards, Philpott's win wasn't *that* narrow--in fact, it was the Libs' second best in York after McCallum's seat.  And likewise, provincially, it was the Tories' second lowest share in York (after Newmarket-Aurora) and second lowest margin (after Vaughan-Woodbridge).

And I would say it's because it's the most "Burlingtonian" seat in York Region, i.e. it's got more affluent non-ethnoburban gentility than the rest, the kind that finds CPC/Ford populism a bit on the coarse side.  (Food for thought: in the Ballantrae Golf Club gated community, which one'd "normally" expect to be a Conservative stronghold, the provincial PCs only prevailed over the Liberals by 4 points last year.)



True enough although Whitchurch-Stouffville still has a rural feel to it.  Also Calandra got 42% federally so that is a pretty solid base to work from.  In both cases it would be for Ontario Cons +7 as Conservative support is around 7 points above whatever Conservative support is overall in Ontario.  So if Conservatives fall below 35%, then only if NDP does much better than expected can they pick this up.  If in upper 30s will depend on if NDP stays in single digits or rises to double, while if Tories get over 40% in Ontario, they will almost certainly flip this one.  So I think overall Ontario numbers will be a good guess so if under 35% for Tories stays Liberal 35-40% for Tories could go either way and if over 40% Tories then they flip it.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 04, 2019, 07:16:44 pm
CBC reports all ministers have stated their support for JT. Some more appropriately than others.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 05, 2019, 05:34:31 am
New poll from Ipsos (https://globalnews.ca/news/5021267/trudeau-approval-rating-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould/)

40-31-20


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 05, 2019, 08:35:25 am
New poll from Ipsos (https://globalnews.ca/news/5021267/trudeau-approval-rating-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould/)

40-31-20

Compared to the last Ipsos, 2/18

LPC - 34% - -3
CPC - 35% - +5
NDP - 17% - +3


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Mike88 on March 05, 2019, 06:40:15 pm
New poll from Nanos: (http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-01-Political-Package.pdf)

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 05, 2019, 06:46:03 pm
Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

By York Region standards, Philpott's win wasn't *that* narrow--in fact, it was the Libs' second best in York after McCallum's seat.  And likewise, provincially, it was the Tories' second lowest share in York (after Newmarket-Aurora) and second lowest margin (after Vaughan-Woodbridge).

And I would say it's because it's the most "Burlingtonian" seat in York Region, i.e. it's got more affluent non-ethnoburban gentility than the rest, the kind that finds CPC/Ford populism a bit on the coarse side.  (Food for thought: in the Ballantrae Golf Club gated community, which one'd "normally" expect to be a Conservative stronghold, the provincial PCs only prevailed over the Liberals by 4 points last year.)



True enough although Whitchurch-Stouffville still has a rural feel to it.  Also Calandra got 42% federally so that is a pretty solid base to work from.  In both cases it would be for Ontario Cons +7 as Conservative support is around 7 points above whatever Conservative support is overall in Ontario.  So if Conservatives fall below 35%, then only if NDP does much better than expected can they pick this up.  If in upper 30s will depend on if NDP stays in single digits or rises to double, while if Tories get over 40% in Ontario, they will almost certainly flip this one.  So I think overall Ontario numbers will be a good guess so if under 35% for Tories stays Liberal 35-40% for Tories could go either way and if over 40% Tories then they flip it.

Actually, I'm not denying the likelihood of the Cons winning it (or *any* seat in Ontario where they still managed a 40%+ share in loss).  I'm merely stating that it's not *as* Conservative as it seems--which is a reason why, despite Whitchurch-Stouffville and Calandra's incumbency, it flipped in 2015 while Markham-Unionville went the other way; up to that point, conventional wisdom would have had it the other way around.  And even rural Whitchurch-Stouffville isn't the dominant rightward-pushing factor it once might have been, what with Stouffville proper rapidly suburbanizing (and the aforementioned Ballantrae GC being in the rural part).

That is, even before her cabinet-resignation-on-principle, Philpott would, in the event of Justinian electoral disaster, probably still have kept (with the help of riding demos) some electoral dignity intact--a federal version of what happened provincially last year to Steven Del Duca or (even more to the point) Charles Sousa or Kevin Flynn.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on March 05, 2019, 07:28:19 pm
Does this all get forgotten 3-4 months from now like Indiagate?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Krago on March 05, 2019, 10:59:30 pm
Wilson-Raybould threw it all away just to make Justin look ridiculous.

And a man in his position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 05, 2019, 11:38:43 pm
Does anybody here think there is a chance if things get bad enough Trudeau will resign before the election or do you think regardless of what happens he is staying on as leader until e-day.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 06, 2019, 05:41:23 am
Does this all get forgotten 3-4 months from now like Indiagate?

Nah. Even if he survives this, the scandal is too big to just forget. India just made him look silly. This scandal and how he's handling cuts to the core of his brand.

Does anybody here think there is a chance if things get bad enough Trudeau will resign before the election or do you think regardless of what happens he is staying on as leader until e-day.

I mean, if the Liberals drop below the NDP, maybe he quits, but otherwise I doubt it.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Harlow on March 06, 2019, 09:48:45 am
New poll from Nanos: (http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-01-Political-Package.pdf)

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)


This is the second-best federal poll for the Greens since 2015. Will be interesting to see whether they pick up any votes from turned-off Liberals.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Not_A_Man on March 06, 2019, 11:45:07 am
New poll from Nanos: (http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-01-Political-Package.pdf)

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)


This is the second-best federal poll for the Greens since 2015. Will be interesting to see whether they pick up any votes from turned-off Liberals.

I'd be more interested in if they can take from the NDP.  I'm beginning to wonder if there's any possibility the Greens could actually beat the NDP in votes?  Or if the Greens could get Official Party Status?  (Though I recognize both are very long shots.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Harlow on March 06, 2019, 02:23:28 pm
New poll from Nanos: (http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-01-Political-Package.pdf)

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)


This is the second-best federal poll for the Greens since 2015. Will be interesting to see whether they pick up any votes from turned-off Liberals.

I'd be more interested in if they can take from the NDP.  I'm beginning to wonder if there's any possibility the Greens could actually beat the NDP in votes?  Or if the Greens could get Official Party Status?  (Though I recognize both are very long shots.)

I mean yeah, they’ll be taking from both, but I specifically meant I’m interested in seeing whether the current fallout from SNC-Lavalain will move Liberals to Green and whether those numbers will hold if so.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 06, 2019, 03:32:16 pm
Abacus is out to today and very bad numbers for the Liberals, not just topline but government now has an approval rating of only 34% while 48% disapprove and positive impression of Trudeau is down to 33%, negative at 46%.  At year's end approval rating and impression of Trudeau was slightly positive.  Looks like it was a tie from Christmas to mid February and then Tories pulled ahead.  https://abacusdata.ca/has-the-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould-controversy-impacted-public-opinion/

Conservative 36%
Liberal 30%
NDP 17%
Green 9%
BQ 5%
Others 3%

So I think notwithstanding Innovative research numbers this is taking a toll on the Liberals.  Will it be fatal, not necessarily as a lot can change.  There is a chance Tories are peaking too early since as long as they are behind no one pays attention to them, but once it looks like they might win focus shifts.  At the same time the Liberals absolutely cannot afford to slide further since if when they go on summer recess if they still have numbers like this, they can probably rule out of a majority and while need to rely on Scheer stumbling to even get a minority.  But this could be a flash in the pan and as this fades off front page news numbers could recover.  I remember in 2005 when the Jean Brault testimony at the Sponsorship scandal let to the Tories opening up a 13 point lead which was in April 2005, but by July of 2005 Liberals were back in front with a 10 point lead.  Now true Harper ultimately did win but he stayed behind until January 2006.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 08, 2019, 10:13:48 am
To elaborate on the Innovative Research numbers Miles mentioned:
Liberal: 36%
Conservative: 32%
NDP: 13%
Green: 9%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 5%

More or less unchanged from their pre-scandal polling.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Dan the Roman on March 08, 2019, 10:29:52 am
To elaborate on the Innovative Research numbers Miles mentioned:
Liberal: 36%
Conservative: 32%
NDP: 13%
Green: 9%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 5%

More or less unchanged from their pre-scandal polling.

Worth noting they seem to use a fixed panel rather than random sampling. That may result in a stickier sample even if it is weighted.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LoneStarDem on March 10, 2019, 02:30:44 pm
Big question is whether Trudeau survives the scandal ?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 10, 2019, 04:42:45 pm
Big question is whether Trudeau survives the scandal ?

With no obvious successor I think he will.  As for winning in October, agreed a majority is going to be an uphill battle but not impossible especially if both Scheer and Singh underperform.  Likewise if he has some big bold promise that is popular with the public like lets see universal pharmacare that might help too.  Still I think there is a better than even chance he remains PM since as long as Liberals + NDP + Greens get at least 170 seats he stays on even if Tories win a plurality.  Now I don't think he will rely on the BQ so if Tories + BQ is greater than 170 seats Scheer becomes PM, but since BQ is more left wing than right wing probably doesn't pass a lot and has to run a fairly centrist govt risk losing on a non-confidence.  Now if Tories + PPC get over 170 seats then expect a very right wing government, but asides Bernier's own riding, I don't see PPC winning anywhere else and even there I think it will be a tough fight. 

As for Tories getting a majority, unlike six months ago it is now at least plausible but still an uphill battle.  Liberals still ahead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec even if things have tightened a bit while still competitive in Ontario and British Columbia.  Tories need a solid lead in the last two mentioned to win a majority, winning half the seats in both won't be enough.  Prairies should largely go Tory and outside Winnipeg will probably be able to count the non-Tory seats on one hand.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 12, 2019, 01:03:32 am
Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on March 12, 2019, 01:52:31 am
Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

In terms of raw support, the NDP seem to have been the main beneficiary of this scandal.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on March 12, 2019, 09:03:43 am
Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 12, 2019, 11:58:16 am
Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Generally concor although if Tories + BQ are a majority not sure Liberals would want to rely on them mind you not sure BQ would want to support either so suspect it would be short lived.  If Tories win a plurality I don't think it would last the full four years but probably at least 2 maybe 3 years.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 12, 2019, 12:23:13 pm
Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Generally concor although if Tories + BQ are a majority not sure Liberals would want to rely on them mind you not sure BQ would want to support either so suspect it would be short lived.  If Tories win a plurality I don't think it would last the full four years but probably at least 2 maybe 3 years.

Makes sense, But as we've seen the CONs can get at least 4-5 years out of minority, 2006-2011. But if i'm not mistaken the CONs relied more on the LPC for support then either the BQ or NDP?
2006 & 2007 Budgets were CONs + BQ
2008, 2009, 2010 Budgets were CONs + LPC (2010, about 30 LPC MPs abstained)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 12, 2019, 12:27:33 pm
Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Generally concor although if Tories + BQ are a majority not sure Liberals would want to rely on them mind you not sure BQ would want to support either so suspect it would be short lived.  If Tories win a plurality I don't think it would last the full four years but probably at least 2 maybe 3 years.

Makes sense, But as we've seen the CONs can get at least 4-5 years out of minority, 2006-2011. But if i'm not mistaken the CONs relied more on the LPC for support then either the BQ or NDP?
2006 & 2007 Budgets were CONs + BQ
2008, 2009, 2010 Budgets were CONs + LPC (2010, about 30 LPC MPs abstained)

I suspect if such happened we would be back to the polls in under a year.  BQ and CPC have little in common but BQ and Liberals for obvious reasons won't work together either.  LPC might abstain but current LPC is more left wing in both party membership and caucus than it was back then.  A lot would probably more than anything depend on public opinion polls and what the public wanted as knowing an election could happen anytime soon parties would not want to do anything to hurt their chances.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on March 12, 2019, 05:33:06 pm
Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

Nanos has a history of having pro Liberal numbers, which means it could be even worse for the Liberals.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 12, 2019, 07:53:45 pm
Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

Nanos has a history of having pro Liberal numbers, which means it could be even worse for the Liberals.

Actually since 2004, Nanos has been within a point of the actual result in their final polls so they have one of the best records.  They use CATI which while expensive is the most accurate and usually what parties use for internal polls.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 12, 2019, 08:54:25 pm
In terms of raw support, the NDP seem to have been the main beneficiary of this scandal.

Well, a double-barrelled beneficiary--of the scandal, and of finally having their leader in Parliament.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 13, 2019, 07:24:44 am
In terms of raw support, the NDP seem to have been the main beneficiary of this scandal.

Well, a double-barrelled beneficiary--of the scandal, and of finally having their leader in Parliament.

Agreed. IF Jagmeet performs well/above expectations or even at expectations, the NDPs numbers should go up even more. If Jagmeet under performs the NDP could see their numbers drop even with the scandal.

The LPC is already showing its desperation with the "well it's us or Scheer" tactics to bolster their left-flank, which while very desperate (and completely false) is a known tactic to rally progressives to the anyone-but-conservative. It's a terrible tactic but can work, even though in 2015 the LPC benefited from this NOT working, as the third party in the House ended up winning even when the NDP was in the better position at that time.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 13, 2019, 07:25:10 am
Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Agree on seat count. The Liberals could very well win 50+ seats in Quebec on 35% of the vote, which would go a long way to offset their 905 losses.

I'm not so sure about your assertion that the Tories will only form a government if they have a majority though. In the vast majority (all?) of the recent successful attempts to form a government excluding the party with the most seats, the excluded first place party has been a long serving, unpopular incumbent (e.g. BC 2017, Ontario 1985). An ABC coalition or accord makes sense if say Harper had a minority in 2015, but I don't think the optics would make as much sense for the NDP now given that:

a) They would propping up a Trudeau government that just got it's wrist slapped for corruption.

b) Scheer doesn't trigger progressives like a Ford or Harper figure.

It's certainly possible that they keep Trudeau in power even if he finishes 2nd, but I'm not seeing a compelling reason why the NDP are certain to do that rather than letting Scheer form a minority government and forcing an election in 6-18 months.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 13, 2019, 05:46:11 pm

b) Scheer doesn't trigger progressives like a Ford or Harper figure.


Actually, anyone party to "left" social media will tell you that he *does*--if more by way of extension from Ford/Harper (and beyond that, Trump, Yellow Vests, Pizzagate nutters, etc).  And it's not like he's given signals of moderation the way that Patrick Brown did as Ontario PC leader--probably because he also seeks to ward off rightward leakage to Bernier...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 14, 2019, 08:00:48 am
()


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on March 14, 2019, 08:29:08 am
I actually think, all things considered, that Trudeau and the Liberals are doing a remarkable job keeping their heads above water. A scandal like this, so close to an election, for an only marginally popular ruling party, would often be pretty much lethal.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 14, 2019, 11:38:25 am
7% for the Dippers in Quebec. 7.

Will any of their Quebec MPs survive?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: rob in cal on March 14, 2019, 11:44:31 am
If the Quebec vote was split as it is in the poll at Lib 35, Con26,BQ 17, does that imply a huge Liberal sweep if those numbers held up, or is their vote not efficiently distributed?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 14, 2019, 01:18:23 pm
Campaign Research has the QC breakdown:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Y83dKTltgfgbSu_LIdcvvupVAqkYWuNP/view

LPC - 29%
CPC - 23%
NPD - 16%
BQ - 16%
Green - 12%
PPC - 3%

I think you can get a sense from the Provincial election when the CAQ won a majority on 38% and only 3 seats in Montreal-Laval.
Last federal the LPC did well and won all over the province, except the Beauce-Quebec City area. But their vote is inefficient normally as its heavily concentrated in MTl-Outaouais area. BUT If the CPC and BQ fight each other out in the Lanaudière-Laurentides (North Shore suburbs) and in the South Shore suburbs of the Montérégie--Centre-du-Quebec regions where the BQ currently holds seats and the CAQ's conservative agenda won over, I could see a) the LPC sneak in and pick up BQ seats even some NDP ones and/or b) some of the NDP MPs in these areas, 6 current MPs win with 30s%. and hang on. The BQ/CPC split could also help the Liberals in Quebec City.

But wild card is both the Green vote, does it stay this high? and where is that 12% coming from? and will the NPD be able to rally back in Quebec to around/above 20% now that they are in a better position with an elected leader and Boulerice as Deputy leader?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 14, 2019, 04:32:51 pm
Leger out for Quebec only, would be interested to see regionals but seems CPC has gained some from BQ and PPC.  For BQ, they seem more your rural nationalists as opposed to progressive types like they were under Duceppe.

PLC 35%
CPC 26%
BQ 17%
Vert 9%
NPD 7%
PPC 4%


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: UWS on March 14, 2019, 06:20:03 pm
7% for the Dippers in Quebec. 7.

Will any of their Quebec MPs survive?

I guess that one of the reasons why the NDP is doing so badly is because their progressive base knows that they won’t win the next election and so they decided to throw their support to Trudeau in order to stop Scheer because they would rather have Trudeau as Prime Minister than Scheder and they know that the LPC has the best chance of stopping the CPC from taking power.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 14, 2019, 06:55:13 pm
Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 14, 2019, 07:26:17 pm
Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..

16% is national while 7% is Quebec only.  In BC they have a strong base, while Ontario they are usually in the 15-20% range and some polls show a slight uptick there.  Also have a somewhat weakening base in Sask/Manitoba too.  Prior to 2011, NDP support in Quebec was always well below what they had nationally so could be just a reversion to normal.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 15, 2019, 07:09:34 am
Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..

16% is national while 7% is Quebec only.  In BC they have a strong base, while Ontario they are usually in the 15-20% range and some polls show a slight uptick there.  Also have a somewhat weakening base in Sask/Manitoba too.  Prior to 2011, NDP support in Quebec was always well below what they had nationally so could be just a reversion to normal.

The 16% was the Quebec region polling numbers from Campaign research. I think what we see is volatility and people parking votes.
But I can't disagree with your synopsis of the NDP vote. I think the NDP has good chances of gaining in BC; probably some room for gains in ON as well but very concentrated in Toronto and possibly their old bases (Hamilton, N.ON and Windsor) even in 2011 I think the NDP was only at 25% or so, high mark was provincially at 34%, but that is unrealistic here... 15-20% is about right. But with the CONs up, mostly coming from the LPC, the party does have a shot if they target key ridings where they were second to the LPC.
The prairies their is a base but it's weak now due to multiple reason, some internal, but I don't see any of the MPs in danger of losing their seats... Regina-Lewvan could be a gain or a less (depends on what Weir does... the cause of most of the NDPs problems here)
Atlantic Canada, ugh I think the party has a shot a Halifax... and maybe St. John's East, other then that this is still a LPC/CONs playground.
Quebec has some strong individual MPs, survivors of 2015, the party is really just trying to save them and I think they probably can save about 10-12 based on local personal popularity, and local vote, see the QS ridings and you can see a correlation to some degree (Sherbrooke, Abitibi, MTL)

You can see the focus on addressing the above numbers by the shuffle in the caucus leadership. Deputy Leaders are from SASK (Benson) and QC (Boulerice), House leader BC (Julian) Deputy House Leader from QC (Trudel). The high profile Justice is moved to ON (Ramsey) while Deputy Justice BC (Murray) is "demoted" somewhat.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2019, 08:43:22 am
Also, the Quebec NDP is not panicking and they keep announcing decently known candidates. The wife of Amir Khadir in Laurier--Saint-Marie. I know then here, in Abitibi, to replace Saganash, there is actually 2 candidates, one of them being a mayoress.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 15, 2019, 05:26:22 pm
Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..

16% is national while 7% is Quebec only.  In BC they have a strong base, while Ontario they are usually in the 15-20% range and some polls show a slight uptick there.  Also have a somewhat weakening base in Sask/Manitoba too.  Prior to 2011, NDP support in Quebec was always well below what they had nationally so could be just a reversion to normal.

The 16% was the Quebec region polling numbers from Campaign research. I think what we see is volatility and people parking votes.

Yeah.  How the NDP and the Bloc could be tied at 16% *nationally* would be beyond me...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 15, 2019, 05:27:01 pm


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 16, 2019, 09:27:16 am
Also, the Quebec NDP is not panicking and they keep announcing decently known candidates. The wife of Amir Khadir in Laurier--Saint-Marie. I know then here, in Abitibi, to replace Saganash, there is actually 2 candidates, one of them being a mayoress.

To add to what MaxQue said, the NDP have a better chance than one would normally expect given their poor polling in Quebec, especially now that the Liberals have come back down to their 2015 result. Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie and Laurier-Sainte Marie are especially good candidates for NDP holds.

Both seats have a good sized NDP margin, and no other party in the area is an obvious candidate to take lots of votes from the NDP. The Liberals are too federalist, the Tories too conservative, and the Bloc's more rightish anti-immigration approach is a bad fit for the area.

Heck, the Tories managed to hold a seat in Quebec on like 5% of the vote in 2000 :P I won't count the NDP totally out yet.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on March 17, 2019, 09:30:10 pm
In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on March 17, 2019, 11:44:25 pm
Anyone running for the federal Liberals in Laurier-Sté. Marie will quickly be tarred as “Monsieur Pipeline” and if it’s Guilbeault he’ll be seen as a sell out


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 18, 2019, 07:39:51 am
In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.

Those with environmental concerns, will not vote Liberal, they are not the party of environmentalism based on their term in gov't. Guilberault will spend all of his time defending the LPC track record; he will be attacked by the NPD, Greens on their lack of environmentalism. BUT I see the LPC point was to go after NPD/BQ/Greens votes and as you mentioned I expect to see "Green-washing". The only LPC talk track is Carbon Pricing, everything else is Harper legacy policy.

The NPD announced that Nima Machouf; Epidemiologist, former Project Montreal municipal candidate in 2009 and wife of former Quebec Solidare MNA/co-Leader Amir Khadir will be running for the nomination.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on March 18, 2019, 02:11:05 pm
In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.

Those with environmental concerns, will not vote Liberal, they are not the party of environmentalism based on their term in gov't. Guilberault will spend all of his time defending the LPC track record; he will be attacked by the NPD, Greens on their lack of environmentalism. BUT I see the LPC point was to go after NPD/BQ/Greens votes and as you mentioned I expect to see "Green-washing". The only LPC talk track is Carbon Pricing, everything else is Harper legacy policy.

The NPD announced that Nima Machouf; Epidemiologist, former Project Montreal municipal candidate in 2009 and wife of former Quebec Solidare MNA/co-Leader Amir Khadir will be running for the nomination.

It will depend on polls as most environmentalists know Scheer will be even less supportive of their demands than Trudeau.  If Liberals have a solid lead or its clear the Tories are going to win, then they will probably vote for what they want, but if close, I think a lot will vote strategically.  Also what riding they live in will matter.  If in a safe Tory riding like Rural Alberta or no hope Tory one like Downtown Toronto and Island of Montreal, a lot will go elsewhere as no risk of splitting the vote, but if competitive ones like 905 belt many will probably vote Liberal strategically as the Tories have a strong base but not majority so every NDP and Green vote gained increases the chances of the Tories winning here.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 18, 2019, 02:51:57 pm
In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.

Those with environmental concerns, will not vote Liberal, they are not the party of environmentalism based on their term in gov't. Guilberault will spend all of his time defending the LPC track record; he will be attacked by the NPD, Greens on their lack of environmentalism. BUT I see the LPC point was to go after NPD/BQ/Greens votes and as you mentioned I expect to see "Green-washing". The only LPC talk track is Carbon Pricing, everything else is Harper legacy policy.

The NPD announced that Nima Machouf; Epidemiologist, former Project Montreal municipal candidate in 2009 and wife of former Quebec Solidare MNA/co-Leader Amir Khadir will be running for the nomination.

It will depend on polls as most environmentalists know Scheer will be even less supportive of their demands than Trudeau.  If Liberals have a solid lead or its clear the Tories are going to win, then they will probably vote for what they want, but if close, I think a lot will vote strategically.  Also what riding they live in will matter.  If in a safe Tory riding like Rural Alberta or no hope Tory one like Downtown Toronto and Island of Montreal, a lot will go elsewhere as no risk of splitting the vote, but if competitive ones like 905 belt many will probably vote Liberal strategically as the Tories have a strong base but not majority so every NDP and Green vote gained increases the chances of the Tories winning here.

Certainly some voters will vote strategically...but I just have to pop in and say to look at the 905 and Outer Toronto in Ontario 2018. Tons of ridings where the Tories ran down the middle between the NDP and the Libs. Maybe things will be different when there  is two parties rather then three in contention, but don't trust the voters. As the saying goes "A individual voter is smart, voters as a group are stupid."


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 19, 2019, 06:22:42 am
Back to the riding in question... it's Laurier-Sainte Marie. The Tories got 4% there last time. I don't think ABC strategic voting will be a problem for the NDP there.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 19, 2019, 07:25:17 am
Back to the riding in question... it's Laurier-Sainte Marie. The Tories got 4% there last time. I don't think ABC strategic voting will be a problem for the NDP there.

Agreed, this is likely to a 3 way race, 4 way if the Green vote actually holds (I am still skeptical that the greens will poll that high, as they did in Outremont by-election but hey, stranger things)
NPD-BQ-LPC fight here. Both the LPC and NPD look to have strong candidates in place, so we will need to see who the BQ nominates; but this area is very left wing so I give the advantage to the NPD here.

I think Hochelaga might be the one to watch; NPD MP is not running again as well, in 2015 the race was much closer then Laurier--Sainte-Marie, 3 way again with the LPC-NPD-BQ only 3% or so separated all three of them! I don't think any of the nominated candidates are personal "star" candidates that would add a few point to personal popularity. Desperately one the NPD needs to hold.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 19, 2019, 08:48:09 am
Nanos Weekly Tracking numbers: Breakdowns by region, age, sex

https://goo.gl/wdGdui


3/15
LPC - 32.6%
CPC - 35.5%
NDP - 19.8%
Green - 7.7%



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 21, 2019, 07:50:16 am
Philpott gives Wells an exclusive where she says there's a lot more about SNCL that needs to be publicly told and denies interest in federal or provincial leadership. (https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/jane-philpott-theres-much-more-to-the-story-that-needs-to-be-told/)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 21, 2019, 05:41:13 pm
Nanos Weekly Tracking numbers: Breakdowns by region, age, sex

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYTJhNmM3ZWQtYjc5Mi00NTRmLTgyZWItODFlZDMyNTg5MjZiIiwidCI6IjJmMmY5NDEyLWY5YjktNDE0ZC1iMDBmLTc4NjJhMzk1YjQxOCIsImMiOjN9&pageName=&fbclid=IwAR1M6N8DjuKIgPyrXbToYGx9oQ3DRFeRieRzjYi64oMr3t7ta2uMJPZCQwY

3/15
LPC - 32.6%
CPC - 35.5%
NDP - 19.8%
Green - 7.7%



That url needs to be compacted.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on March 26, 2019, 01:58:21 pm
Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 26, 2019, 05:14:30 pm
Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

Even though he's a first-termer sitting on a recount margin, I think it's pushing things to frame this as a wheels-falling-off-bus circumstance.  Among a caucus of a hundred or so, many of which have been there for several terms, 11 not seeking reelection doesn't seem particularly abnormal...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on March 26, 2019, 07:54:02 pm
Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

Even though he's a first-termer sitting on a recount margin, I think it's pushing things to frame this as a wheels-falling-off-bus circumstance.  Among a caucus of a hundred or so, many of which have been there for several terms, 11 not seeking reelection doesn't seem particularly abnormal...

It was meant hyperbolicaly since every time a bunch of people leave, the media and the hyper partisans often chant "the wheels are falling off" or some such thing.  The right wing dominated mainstream media is less likely to do that with the Conservatives, however, that was certainly the narrative with the NDP.

To be precise though, it isn't just the 11 not seeking re-election (so far), but another, I believe, 7 left without serving out their full terms. (Dianne Watts, Jason Kenney, Rona Ambrose, Stephen Harper, Gerry Ritz, Peter Van Loan and Denis Lebel.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on March 26, 2019, 10:04:40 pm
Alex Nuttall not seeking reelection.

11th Conservative M.P to not seek reelection (not including those who already resigned and didn't serve out the full term they were elected to.) The wheels are falling off the Conservative bus. Scheer has a nice smile though.

He is my MP lol.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on March 27, 2019, 07:07:42 am
To be precise though, it isn't just the 11 not seeking re-election (so far), but another, I believe, 7 left without serving out their full terms. (Dianne Watts, Jason Kenney, Rona Ambrose, Stephen Harper, Gerry Ritz, Peter Van Loan and Denis Lebel.)

And those defeated for re-nomination, like Brad Trost.

And then there are these kinds of former sitting members...
https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/03/25/disappointed-former-ontario-conservative-mp-chisu-leaves-party-will-run-as-a-peoples-party-candidate-in-the-upcoming-election/193688


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Jeppe on March 28, 2019, 09:00:28 am
Lol, Jagmeet Singh has a higher favourability rating than Trudeau now, according to Angus Reid (39% vs 36%).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 28, 2019, 09:51:23 am
Ipsos Poll:

CPC - 40%
LPC - 30%
NDP - 21%

https://globalnews.ca/news/5103763/trudeau-approval-rating-snc-lavalin-budget/?fbclid=IwAR1Njh2a4HQjGPFsVk4NnN69fkDmKg1X1Z_iO6n-AyaUUafyYSfhT68hTyo


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: PSOL on March 28, 2019, 11:51:38 am
Even with The Liberals and NDP cracking over 50%, does FPTP ensure that the Conservatives win even with 35%.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 28, 2019, 01:07:58 pm
Even with The Liberals and NDP cracking over 50%, does FPTP ensure that the Conservatives win even with 35%.

National level figures are hard say for sure "yes", generally yes. But its the provincial level results that will dictate this; there can be huge differences from Province to province.

The LPC won a large majority with 39% but heavily from Ontario, Quebec, BC and Atlantic.
The CPC can also win a majority with 39%... but in 2008 at 37% the CPC won a minority. At 35% the CPC would likely win a minority. BUT again depending on where the NDP and LPC votes/seats came from.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Holmes on March 28, 2019, 01:12:07 pm
With 40% nationally, Ontario would grant the Tories a majority.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 28, 2019, 04:30:39 pm
Given the electoral geography right now, I'd guess the Tories can't drop much below 40% before getting into minority territory. Trudeau will likely win a lot of Quebec seats on ~35%, and the Tories will waste tons of votes out West.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: trebor204 on March 29, 2019, 12:47:38 am
Angus Reed

Consv: 37%
Lib: 28%
NDP: 17%
Green 8%
BQ: 5%
PPC: 4%



http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019.03.26-federal-release.pdf

Poll consists of a lot of sub regional break downs. (ie Rural Sask)

Conservatives leading outside of Montreal (in a 4-way race)





Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on March 29, 2019, 08:06:55 am
Angus Reed

Consv: 37%
Lib: 28%
NDP: 17%
Green 8%
BQ: 5%
PPC: 4%



http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019.03.26-federal-release.pdf

Poll consists of a lot of sub regional break downs. (ie Rural Sask)

Conservatives leading outside of Montreal (in a 4-way race)





Some interesting sub polling right

NDP leads the city of Vancouver, tight three way race
-NDP - 29%, LPC 27%, CPC 23%

Metro Van the CPC is taking the lead; could be wasted votes south of the Fraser?
- CPC 37%, LPC 28%, NDP 22%

GTA is very tight, LPC will lose seats but still lead with a weak NDP, might not be as many losses as though?
-LPC 39%, CPC 36%

Montreal Split is interesting, I can't see any losses for the LPC, but the NDP is still holding their own.
-LPC 37%, NDP 20%, BQ 19%, CPC 15%

Central;/Edmonton is more competitive then I would have thought?
CPC - 40%, LPC 30%, NDP 19%

Interesting SASK break down, the CPC is polling both 42% in Regina and Saskatoon, but big differences between the LPC and NDP.
In Regina we have the LPC 23%, NDP 16% (Goodale effect?)
In Saskatoon we have NDP 39%, LPC 12%

In Toronto, strong LPC numbers hard to see any real losses, maybe one or two to each the CPC and NCP? NDP would be concentrated in Central, CPC would be in the old suburbs, central North York/Midtown
-LPC 45%, NPD 23%, CPC 21%



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 29, 2019, 10:29:25 am


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 29, 2019, 05:02:09 pm
CBC says Grit caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott next week. The recording is indeed with Wernick.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 29, 2019, 05:42:16 pm
CBC says Grit caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott next week. The recording is indeed with Wernick.

Link to audio for those interested (https://ourcommons.azureedge.net/data/ConversationJWRandWernick-e.m4a)

Wernick and Trudeau do not come off well here. Tape disproves Butts claim about government not knowing. JWR was upset.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on March 31, 2019, 02:47:05 pm
Lol, Trudeau is screwed.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on March 31, 2019, 04:06:32 pm
CBC says Grit caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott next week. The recording is indeed with Wernick.

Link to audio for those interested (https://ourcommons.azureedge.net/data/ConversationJWRandWernick-e.m4a)

Wernick and Trudeau do not come off well here. Tape disproves Butts claim about government not knowing. JWR was upset.

Those defending Trudeau (mostly criticizing Raybould) point out that Raybould knew she was recording herself.  However, I don't hear anything from Wernick in the recording that suggested that she was taken aback by her speaking style or thinking to himself "she sounds oddly preachy."  I don't know how often they spoke though.   


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2019, 07:44:43 am
Paywalled Hill Times story reconfirms caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott, both got roasted in their respective regional caucus meetings. Ironic that pro-Centre Grits screamed about not recording meetings while leaking the entire story to Hill Times.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2019, 12:00:44 pm
JWR and Philpott could be expelled from caucus as early as tonight. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-caucus-wilson-raybould-philpott-1.5079404?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 01, 2019, 12:36:27 pm
JWR and Philpott could be expelled from caucus as early as tonight. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-caucus-wilson-raybould-philpott-1.5079404?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar)

That seems like it would be an extremely counter-productive decision for the Liberals, especially now that the tape has been released.

Let's toss the whistleblower (who has tons of evidence) out of caucus. Surely this won't harm the Liberal Party brand or our chances of re-election ::)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2019, 01:59:09 pm


Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LoneStarDem on April 02, 2019, 02:03:32 pm
In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 02, 2019, 04:52:06 pm
Jwr out.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 02, 2019, 04:56:09 pm


Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.

Aaaannnd, she's gone.

In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?

Canada is notorious for having unexpected swings but...I do not expect this to end well for the Liberals, especially now that JWR has been expelled from caucus.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: JerryArkansas on April 02, 2019, 05:05:24 pm


Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.

Aaaannnd, she's gone.

In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?

Canada is notorious for having unexpected swings but...I do not expect this to end well for the Liberals, especially now that JWR has been expelled from caucus.
Personally it seems like JWR was trying to extort to stay in power, seeing the texts that she sent out that where just released. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Jeppe on April 02, 2019, 05:19:43 pm
Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: UWS on April 02, 2019, 06:20:36 pm
http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Political-Package-2019-03-29.pdf

LPC : 34,6 %
CPC : 35,1 %
NDP : 16,1 %
BQ : 4,4 %
GPC : 8,1 %
PPC : 0,5 %

This election is still a toss-up and 6 months is an eternity in politics. It has been recently reported thatCanada is warming twice faster as the rest of the world and yet Andrew Scheer has still not yet unveiled his damn environmental plan six months after promising to do so.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: the506 on April 03, 2019, 09:25:12 pm
Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.

Can't imagine the Tories doing that. NDP, probably not either. Greens would do it in a heartbeat.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on April 03, 2019, 10:30:34 pm
Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.

I think she does, & I think she does it as an independent, though it'll be a tough win for her without a party. The riding would have a lame duck backbencher that couldn't do anything for them; might've been different with electoral reform but not with FPTP.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on April 03, 2019, 11:15:10 pm
In terms of crossing floor and winning.  Markham-Stouffville is a very marginal riding and would probably go Conservative if an election were called today so Philpott could potentially win if she crossed the floor to the Conservatives, but she always struck me as being on the left of the party so don't think she would be a good fit.  NDP is very weak there so would have no chance.  JWR represents an urban riding and I find in urban areas candidate matters less than in rural areas.  If she runs as an independent I suspect she will draw votes from all parties but not enough to win.  Vancouver-Granville is a pretty solid Liberal and only goes Tory or NDP if either is heading for a majority nationally.  North side is a Liberal/NDP battleground while south side is a Tory/Liberal so Liberals win by being strong throughout it.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 04, 2019, 07:35:48 am


Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.

Aaaannnd, she's gone.

In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?

Canada is notorious for having unexpected swings but...I do not expect this to end well for the Liberals, especially now that JWR has been expelled from caucus.
Personally it seems like JWR was trying to extort to stay in power, seeing the texts that she sent out that where just released. 

Perhaps in isolation, but given the broader range of evidence, and the Prime Minister not letting JWR discuss the period the texts cover, it seems like a small piece of pro-Liberal evidence in a sea of anti-Liberal evidence and coverage.

Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.

Can't imagine the Tories doing that. NDP, probably not either. Greens would do it in a heartbeat.

Agreed. Her seat is just a little too winnable for the Tories and NDP. I could kind of see it if she represented a seat where one or both of them had no hope, but her seat is definitely in play if the Liberals falter... especially if a strong independent candidate is in the mix.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2019, 01:00:29 pm
My bet is if she wants to continue in elective politics, she joins Horgan and he gives her an advisory post till he can open a Vancouver seat next provincial election.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Jeppe on April 04, 2019, 02:41:41 pm
My bet is if she wants to continue in elective politics, she joins Horgan and he gives her an advisory post till he can open a Vancouver seat next provincial election.

Yeah, if I were JWR, I'd just jump into provincial politics instead. She'd have a bright future there.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 04, 2019, 03:13:22 pm
Interesting on JWR, provincial politics could be the way to make a real difference, and still be involved with party politics.

Also, Philpott might consider taking a look at Ontario Liberals, they are having a leadership race.

Jenny Kwan NDP MP, also made similar comments to May, the NDP would be willing to listen to them if they wanted to talk. I highly doubt it though, JWR maybe but probably not. a) JWR would have to sit as an indie, the NDP do not take-in floor crosser's, she could then seek the NDP nomination (this is what Maria Mourani did before the 2015). b) she would have to defend voting against NDP bills like Postal Banking and Housing as a right, which is NDP policy so.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2019, 12:04:33 pm
In completely different BC news, PPC is imploding due to far-right infiltration and accusations of racism and xenophobia from founding members. (https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/04/04/mad-at-max-berniers-peoples-party-of-canada-is-revolting-in-british-columbia.html)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on April 05, 2019, 01:15:16 pm
In completely different BC news, PPC is imploding due to far-right infiltration and accusations of racism and xenophobia from founding members. (https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/04/04/mad-at-max-berniers-peoples-party-of-canada-is-revolting-in-british-columbia.html)

No surprise, but good news for the Tories.  Fewer splits also PPC helps take all the nut cases, still party needs to be careful since if they don't vet their candidates carefully could sink them.  UCP is making the race in Alberta more competitive than expected for that reason.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 07, 2019, 10:05:52 am
This poll also says that across the City of Vancouver federal Liberal support has collapsed to 25%, tied with the CPC while the NDP leads with 33% thestar.com/vancouver/2019

Another poll out yesterday shows a similar pattern in Winnipeg- big Liberal drop from 2015 and NDP gaining ground


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on April 07, 2019, 12:17:38 pm
There’s no way Hedy Fry loses my riding.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 07, 2019, 12:34:16 pm
There’s no way Hedy Fry loses my riding.

Probably not though if she retired that seat would be totally up for grabs. Sometimes people do stay past the best before date. Jim Bradly was supposed to be unbeatable for the Ontario Liberals after having been an MPP since 1977 and then last June he finally lost. I get the sense that Hedy Fry has a certain iconic image but that she has just been calling it in lately and isn’t doing much of anything and thinks she can coast with a “job for life”


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 07, 2019, 03:23:05 pm
This poll also says that across the City of Vancouver federal Liberal support has collapsed to 25%, tied with the CPC while the NDP leads with 33% thestar.com/vancouver/2019

Another poll out yesterday shows a similar pattern in Winnipeg- big Liberal drop from 2015 and NDP gaining ground

That ought to put Vancouver Granville and Vancouver South in play.

There’s no way Hedy Fry loses my riding.

Probably not though if she retired that seat would be totally up for grabs. Sometimes people do stay past the best before date. Jim Bradly was supposed to be unbeatable for the Ontario Liberals after having been an MPP since 1977 and then last June he finally lost. I get the sense that Hedy Fry has a certain iconic image but that she has just been calling it in lately and isn’t doing much of anything and thinks she can coast with a “job for life”

Fry also had the advantage of winning a seat that has since become much more favourable to the Liberals thanks to demographic changes and realignment. Bradley was more akin to those dinosaur Blue Dogs who got swept away in 2010.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 07, 2019, 04:06:29 pm
Vancouver Centre is the Vancouver equivalent of downtown Toronto seats that will go Liberal or NDP depending on  who has momentum...at one time the Tories were competitive there - it was Kim Campbell's riding after all - but now its purely a Liberal/NDP contest. If Hedy Fry retired it would quickly be a Liberal NDP tossup.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 07, 2019, 05:14:47 pm
And other than the freakishly high 2015 result, Hedy Fry's really been more of an opposition-split safe-middle-option beneficiary over the years--ReformAllianceConservative being too far right for outright victory in this kind of seat, yet the condo-ization of False Creek plus "NDP can't win" conventional wisdom impairing things at the other end, plus a left-split circumstance through the Greens (particularly w/Adriane Carr in 2008/11).  And like Toronto Centre, it's the kind of seat that could have gone NDP in 2011 had the party nominated better than they did.

For the NDP, it's federally winnable in the same way that Spadina-Fort York was provincially winnable in 2018.  (That is, if Jagmeet gets some Andrea-like lift in the sails.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on April 08, 2019, 09:53:30 am
And other than the freakishly high 2015 result, Hedy Fry's really been more of an opposition-split safe-middle-option beneficiary over the years--ReformAllianceConservative being too far right for outright victory in this kind of seat, yet the condo-ization of False Creek plus "NDP can't win" conventional wisdom impairing things at the other end, plus a left-split circumstance through the Greens (particularly w/Adriane Carr in 2008/11).  And like Toronto Centre, it's the kind of seat that could have gone NDP in 2011 had the party nominated better than they did.

For the NDP, it's federally winnable in the same way that Spadina-Fort York was provincially winnable in 2018.  (That is, if Jagmeet gets some Andrea-like lift in the sails.)

As someone who lives in Hedy Fry's riding, it is a fairly safe Liberal one.  The PCs used to win but that was back when they were Red Tories and you didn't have the urban/rural divide you did today.  Also when Kim Campbell was MP, the riding extended all the way to UBC whereas now its largely the downtown peninsula and False Creek so much smaller than it was then. 

Reason it favours Liberals is you have well to do areas like False Creek, Yaletown, and Coal Harbour which will never go NDP, while you have the West End which with it being mostly apartment rentals and large LGBT population would never go CPC, while Liberals win by being competitive everywhere.  It is somewhat like Toronto Centre, but also has some similarities to Cities of London and Westminster in UK, which still votes Conservative, albeit not by as big a margins as it used to.  In a lot of ways it is more akin to Toronto Centre before last redistribution when it still included Rosedale as opposed to it under its current boundaries.  In UK, it would be like combining Cities of London & Westminster with Poplar & Limehouse.  Also never mind Cities of London & Westminster would probably be Liberal in Canadian context as wealthy so goes Tory, but it also voted 75% remain so probably wary of right wing populists if there is a centrist alternative.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 08, 2019, 12:30:13 pm
 A riding poll has been commissioned for a hypothetical Jody Wilson-Raybould independent run in Vancouver-Granville (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/vancouver/2019/04/05/exclusive-wilson-raybould-could-beat-vancouver-riding-rivals-by-nearly-double-digits-poll-suggests.html)

JWR: 33%
Liberal:24%
NDP: 21%
Conservative: 15%


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on April 08, 2019, 01:01:23 pm
A riding poll has been commissioned for a hypothetical Jody Wilson-Raybould independent run in Vancouver-Granville (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/vancouver/2019/04/05/exclusive-wilson-raybould-could-beat-vancouver-riding-rivals-by-nearly-double-digits-poll-suggests.html)

JWR: 33%
Liberal:24%
NDP: 21%
Conservative: 15%
I see no problem with her running as an independent. Even if she loses, she could still join the BCNDP, and she'd be welcomed with open arms.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 08, 2019, 01:05:28 pm
And other than the freakishly high 2015 result, Hedy Fry's really been more of an opposition-split safe-middle-option beneficiary over the years--ReformAllianceConservative being too far right for outright victory in this kind of seat, yet the condo-ization of False Creek plus "NDP can't win" conventional wisdom impairing things at the other end, plus a left-split circumstance through the Greens (particularly w/Adriane Carr in 2008/11).  And like Toronto Centre, it's the kind of seat that could have gone NDP in 2011 had the party nominated better than they did.

For the NDP, it's federally winnable in the same way that Spadina-Fort York was provincially winnable in 2018.  (That is, if Jagmeet gets some Andrea-like lift in the sails.)

As someone who lives in Hedy Fry's riding, it is a fairly safe Liberal one.  The PCs used to win but that was back when they were Red Tories and you didn't have the urban/rural divide you did today.  Also when Kim Campbell was MP, the riding extended all the way to UBC whereas now its largely the downtown peninsula and False Creek so much smaller than it was then. 

Reason it favours Liberals is you have well to do areas like False Creek, Yaletown, and Coal Harbour which will never go NDP, while you have the West End which with it being mostly apartment rentals and large LGBT population would never go CPC, while Liberals win by being competitive everywhere.  It is somewhat like Toronto Centre, but also has some similarities to Cities of London and Westminster in UK, which still votes Conservative, albeit not by as big a margins as it used to.  In a lot of ways it is more akin to Toronto Centre before last redistribution when it still included Rosedale as opposed to it under its current boundaries.  In UK, it would be like combining Cities of London & Westminster with Poplar & Limehouse.  Also never mind Cities of London & Westminster would probably be Liberal in Canadian context as wealthy so goes Tory, but it also voted 75% remain so probably wary of right wing populists if there is a centrist alternative.

In 2011 Hedy Fry, "almost" lost with the NDP surge, winning 31% to 26% (tied with CONs) and 15% for the Greens. I think that was the closest in recent years. 2015 Fry under a LPC surge won 56% to the NDP 20%. I agree had the NDP ran a stronger candidate in 2011 they "could" have won here, it would have been close though.

I Think the NDP could win Vancouver Centre but only under a perfect storm (even without Fry) for the NDP, they need the CONs or the Greens to be stronger, in particular in Yaletown and Coal Harbour... like 2011, then poll very high everywhere else. The southern boundary in 2015 shifted north from West 16th to West 6th, but based on 2011 that hurt all parties as all parties won polls in this strip.   
If you look at the Provincial election, VanCentre is basically VanWest End and VanFalse Creek, the NDP would have won using the votes from 2017. What I take from this is that the NDP has to become the vehicle for left-progressive voters and Fry has too strong of a name to do that right now.
If the polling actually turns out like 33/25/25 The NDP has a shot at VanCentre but It's still a long shot, but it is the next most winnable riding in Vancouver


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 08, 2019, 10:37:24 pm
Actually the next most winnable seat for the NDP in Vancouver would be Vancouver Granville if JWR didn’t run again


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 09, 2019, 06:10:10 am
Actually the next most winnable seat for the NDP in Vancouver would be Vancouver Granville if JWR didn’t run again

Yes, you're correct (26% vs VanCentre at 20% from 2015) Tanks!
BUT I think it depends on what JWR does too to see where the MDP focus's...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: New Jersey Moderate on April 09, 2019, 07:02:31 pm
What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 09, 2019, 08:53:07 pm
What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

To repeat: post-byelection, it's no longer so clear that Jagmeet's leadership is "inept".  (Though to continue to frame it as such certainly serves the pro-Liberal media narrative.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 10, 2019, 05:19:32 am
Here are some seats I believe the Greens can win on a good night:

Saanich-Gulf Islands (obviously)
Victoria (their top target and a seat which includes Andrew Weaver's district)
Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (another Vancouver Island battleground, where former Liberal David Merner is running as a Green)
Nanaimo-Ladysmith (the by-election isn't long after the PEI Election and Paul Manly is running for the Greens)

And if that surge really happens:

Fredericton (David Coon's seat is here and they came third last time)
Guelph (student seat where Mike Schreiner won)
Cowichan-Malahat-Langford (getting the effects of the Victoria area surge, this also contains the area represented by Sonia Furstenau, however it's likely the best seat for the NDP wholly on the island)
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea To Sky Country (the best named riding anywhere, the Sunshine Coast area has a Green tinge, but this only goes in a Liberal collapse)
Charlottetown (residual from provincial election)
Malpeque (same as Charlottetown)

I think they will definitely take Victoria and Saanich and are in a good position in the other two (of which Nanaimo is the better shot), but I don't see them taking anywhere else. In Fredericton they could play spoiler and allow the CPC to oust Matt Decourcey, considering the CPC are taking at least three other NB seats.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: c r a b c a k e on April 10, 2019, 05:56:58 am
What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 10, 2019, 06:10:33 am
What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 10, 2019, 06:30:20 am
What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

The Greens have seemed to turn their attention to Atlantic Canada, I could see if the Greens win PEI that could translate into a surge in the 4 riding's there, enough to win a couple? perhaps, IF there is a big swing from LPC->GRN since the Liberals own the island federally.
Look at the candidates in the Halifax ares, the Greens are going to heavily focus here:
- Jo-Ann Roberts (who was a strong second in Victoria) is running in Halifax
- Lil MacPherson (former mayoral candidate) running in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
- Richard Zurawski (HRM Councillor) running in Halifax West

Halifax in particular will be a three-way fight between the progressives; I'd say Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is now a LPC/GRN contest and Halifax West in another three-way race between LPC/CONs/GRN

Victoria is safer for the NDP without a star green candidate, but I expect the Greens to still come in second there


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 10, 2019, 09:23:27 am
What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

The Greens have seemed to turn their attention to Atlantic Canada, I could see if the Greens win PEI that could translate into a surge in the 4 riding's there, enough to win a couple? perhaps, IF there is a big swing from LPC->GRN since the Liberals own the island federally.
Look at the candidates in the Halifax ares, the Greens are going to heavily focus here:
- Jo-Ann Roberts (who was a strong second in Victoria) is running in Halifax
- Lil MacPherson (former mayoral candidate) running in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
- Richard Zurawski (HRM Councillor) running in Halifax West

Halifax in particular will be a three-way fight between the progressives; I'd say Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is now a LPC/GRN contest and Halifax West in another three-way race between LPC/CONs/GRN

Victoria is safer for the NDP without a star green candidate, but I expect the Greens to still come in second there

Perhaps, but in the Atlantics provincial Liberal voters are often Conservatives (Egmont area ridings on PEI) and vice versa (Cape Breton ridings in NS.) In Vancouver Island, climate change is also a far bigger issue than in the rest of Canada. Indigenous issues seem to matter here too. Victoria has also lost its attractive NDP candidate, but now has a Green indigenous candidate. I also think the Grits will sweep Halifax.

If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 10, 2019, 10:50:18 am
What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

The Greens have seemed to turn their attention to Atlantic Canada, I could see if the Greens win PEI that could translate into a surge in the 4 riding's there, enough to win a couple? perhaps, IF there is a big swing from LPC->GRN since the Liberals own the island federally.
Look at the candidates in the Halifax ares, the Greens are going to heavily focus here:
- Jo-Ann Roberts (who was a strong second in Victoria) is running in Halifax
- Lil MacPherson (former mayoral candidate) running in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
- Richard Zurawski (HRM Councillor) running in Halifax West

Halifax in particular will be a three-way fight between the progressives; I'd say Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is now a LPC/GRN contest and Halifax West in another three-way race between LPC/CONs/GRN

Victoria is safer for the NDP without a star green candidate, but I expect the Greens to still come in second there

Perhaps, but in the Atlantics provincial Liberal voters are often Conservatives (Egmont area ridings on PEI) and vice versa (Cape Breton ridings in NS.) In Vancouver Island, climate change is also a far bigger issue than in the rest of Canada. Indigenous issues seem to matter here too. Victoria has also lost its attractive NDP candidate, but now has a Green indigenous candidate. I also think the Grits will sweep Halifax.

If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.

The NDP is likely to nominate a young and well known city Councillor, so while Murray will be a lose I think Laurel Collins is a very strong and much more well known candidate then the Greens this time. But this is still a two-way race with the NDP-Greens. The NDP has also nominated a grand chief to run in Nanaimo-Ladysmith; while I agree the Greens will due well and improve over 2015, I don't see them yet winning any more ridings on the Island given the NDPs move to the left vs the 2015 election. I see the LPC losing votes to both the Greens and NDP which should shore up the NDPs current MPs


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 10, 2019, 03:59:27 pm
Malcolm Allen is going to try to win back his Niagara Centre seat for the NDP. He was MP from 2008 to 2015 and lost narrowly last time to a no-name Liberal who barely campaigned. In the current environment Allen should have a good chance to win...especially since that riding voted deep orange in the provincial election


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 10, 2019, 05:23:21 pm
Quote from: beesley link=topic=305434.msg6748632#msg6748632 date=1554906207
Perhaps, but in the Atlantics provincial Liberal voters are often Conservatives (Egmont area ridings on PEI) and vice versa (Cape Breton ridings in NS.)

Re Egmont, I feel that became federally Conservative more through its being an open seat in a Lib-unfriendly climate (and w/a credible standard-bearer in Gail Shea) than through anything more innate--in fact, it was the only PEI seat to stay Liberal in 1984.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 10, 2019, 05:36:18 pm
Malcolm Allen is going to try to win back his Niagara Centre seat for the NDP. He was MP from 2008 to 2015 and lost narrowly last time to a no-name Liberal who barely campaigned. In the current environment Allen should have a good chance to win...especially since that riding voted deep orange in the provincial election

Vance Badawey isn't *quite* no-name; he served as mayor of Port Colborne for the better part of two decades.

And while the riding has a deep orange provincial history thanks mainly to the legacy of Mel Swart/ Peter Kormos/Cindy Forster, the NDP won by a less-than-deep-orange 6.7% over the PCs last time around--yes, they still won; but this is very much blue-collar Obama-Trump country so I wouldn't rule out the federal Cons, either.  (Though conversely, the Cons' Rob Nicholson is retiring in Niagara Falls next door, which might well put that seat into play going the *other* direction.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Smid on April 10, 2019, 07:48:17 pm

If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.

Link?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 11, 2019, 07:19:24 am
Malcolm Allen is going to try to win back his Niagara Centre seat for the NDP. He was MP from 2008 to 2015 and lost narrowly last time to a no-name Liberal who barely campaigned. In the current environment Allen should have a good chance to win...especially since that riding voted deep orange in the provincial election

Vance Badawey isn't *quite* no-name; he served as mayor of Port Colborne for the better part of two decades.

And while the riding has a deep orange provincial history thanks mainly to the legacy of Mel Swart/ Peter Kormos/Cindy Forster, the NDP won by a less-than-deep-orange 6.7% over the PCs last time around--yes, they still won; but this is very much blue-collar Obama-Trump country so I wouldn't rule out the federal Cons, either.  (Though conversely, the Cons' Rob Nicholson is retiring in Niagara Falls next door, which might well put that seat into play going the *other* direction.)

I think the NDP was going to try and target this riding regardless of who the candidate was. With the recent political scene I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa. Having Malcolm Allen run again is very good for the NDP though, so probably a toss-up between the NDP-CONs, I'd now throw in Niagara Falls as well, depending on the candidates but Provincially the NDP has strengthened its hold there. I think much of that is the MPP himself though.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on April 11, 2019, 09:15:56 am
The wheels continue to fall off the Conservative bus.  They are now up to 13 retirements with two former experienced cabinet ministers having announced they won't run again:  former Minister of State for Finance Kevin Sorenson and former Foreign Affairs Minister Rob Nicholson.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 11, 2019, 10:19:31 am

If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.

Link?

http://www.electionprediction.org/2019_fed/index.php is the current project.

http://www.electionprediction.org/method.html is the guidelines.

I'm Sam on that website.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 11, 2019, 05:18:17 pm
I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa.

Not with a Liberal incumbent in place, unless Justin's set for a Wynne/Iggy-level collapse.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 11, 2019, 08:54:23 pm
I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa.

Not with a Liberal incumbent in place, unless Justin's set for a Wynne/Iggy-level collapse.

Last election Niagara Centre was close to an even three way split. The federal Liberals won’t lose by as much as the Wynne Liberals did provincially but they will drop at least ten points from their 2015 landslide which would put them firmly in third place in a rising line Niagara Centre


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LabourJersey on April 11, 2019, 09:22:27 pm
What factors make a riding competitive between just the Tories and the NDP, as opposed to the Liberals? Is there some demographic element, or is it historic?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Not_A_Man on April 11, 2019, 09:47:18 pm
Has there been any rumblings out of Nanaimo-Ladysmith?  I'm interested in if the whole Green surge would be boosted if Manly pulls off a win, and how likely that is.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Harlow on April 12, 2019, 12:03:45 am
Has there been any rumblings out of Nanaimo-Ladysmith?  I'm interested in if the whole Green surge would be boosted if Manly pulls off a win, and how likely that is.

I think there's also the potential for the PEI provincial election to have rumblings federally, perhaps enough to tip the by-election in their favor.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 12, 2019, 03:51:23 am
What factors make a riding competitive between just the Tories and the NDP, as opposed to the Liberals? Is there some demographic element, or is it historic?

Partly historic, but there are ridings like Sarnia-Lambton and Essex which are no good for the Liberals, but the Tories or NDP only beat the other by a few points. It's a mix of urban and rural but also has a lot of manufacturing . In recent years the Liberals have done poorly in these areas. Even in 2014 the OLP had only one seat in SW Ontario, and that was in London. These areas are drifting more to the Tories.

Some are more historic, like Oshawa (formerly held by Ed Broadbent), Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Saskatoon West (Saskatchewan has gone back to hating Liberals, unless their name is Ralph), and Elmwood-Transcona (formerly held by Bill Blaikie), where the NDP have ancestral vote and do well in provincial elections. But in many of these, the Liberals did well there last time, and having a historical link isn't enough (ask Rebecca Blaikie.)




Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 12, 2019, 06:26:45 am
I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa.

Not with a Liberal incumbent in place, unless Justin's set for a Wynne/Iggy-level collapse.

Last election Niagara Centre was close to an even three way split. The federal Liberals won’t lose by as much as the Wynne Liberals did provincially but they will drop at least ten points from their 2015 landslide which would put them firmly in third place in a rising line Niagara Centre

Which'd be like when Allen first got in in 2008.  But that election, and the two before it, were still technical 3-ways.  It's only 2011 that saw the *real* Liberal plummet.

And also, if we go by conventional wisdom/wishful think/forced narrative that the Jagmeet Dippers are still goners, there's a chance that having previously served will serve Malcolm Allen no better than it served John Maloney in 2011.  (Note how I qualified that logic.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 12, 2019, 06:55:20 am
What factors make a riding competitive between just the Tories and the NDP, as opposed to the Liberals? Is there some demographic element, or is it historic?

Partly historic, but there are ridings like Sarnia-Lambton and Essex which are no good for the Liberals, but the Tories or NDP only beat the other by a few points. It's a mix of urban and rural but also has a lot of manufacturing . In recent years the Liberals have done poorly in these areas. Even in 2014 the OLP had only one seat in SW Ontario, and that was in London. These areas are drifting more to the Tories.

Some are more historic, like Oshawa (formerly held by Ed Broadbent), Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Saskatoon West (Saskatchewan has gone back to hating Liberals, unless their name is Ralph), and Elmwood-Transcona (formerly held by Bill Blaikie), where the NDP have ancestral vote and do well in provincial elections. But in many of these, the Liberals did well there last time, and having a historical link isn't enough (ask Rebecca Blaikie.)




In Ontario it's as mentioned here historic, but also demographic. They are typically smaller urban cities (100K or under populations) in SW Ontario and are typically or historically manufacturing or industrial based, which has a long history of unionization. The ridings in general are those urban-rural ones, Sarnia-Lambton, Chathan-Kent, Brantford-Brant, Essex (in fact the NDP gained this is 2015). These are regional centres so they tend to be where the larger hospitals/schools are, which again is heavily unionized.
These areas you see populism is more prominent, both the progressive populism and reactionary/conservative populism. pocket book policies play well here, which has not been where the Liberals campaign from, but the CONs do and the NDP does sometimes (or partially). Liberal support tends to come from wealthier people, but this group seems to swing between the CONs and LPC. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on April 12, 2019, 03:08:34 pm
Canadian Green supports kinda resembles that of the Lib Dems in the UK.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on April 12, 2019, 03:20:06 pm
In Toronto, I only have a sense what's going on for the NDP in four ridings.

Toronto-Danforth:  Documentary filmmaker Min Sook Lee looks like she has it as her strongest opponent has dropped out.

Davenport:  Former MP Andrew Cash was acclaimed in December.  He is pretty much the perfect fit for the riding.

Parkdale-High Park:  Mayoral candidate and human rights lawyer Saron Gebresellassi and Foodshare executive director Paul Taylor are both seeking the nomination.

York South-Weston:  Yafet Tewelde seems to be the only one running and he has the backing of former MP Mike Sullivan.

The first three are very low hanging fruit, YSW is a "next tier" riding held by Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen.  No challengers yet for Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre) and Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale), also in the next tier.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 12, 2019, 05:45:07 pm

In Ontario it's as mentioned here historic, but also demographic. They are typically smaller urban cities (100K or under populations) in SW Ontario and are typically or historically manufacturing or industrial based, which has a long history of unionization. The ridings in general are those urban-rural ones, Sarnia-Lambton, Chathan-Kent, Brantford-Brant, Essex (in fact the NDP gained this is 2015). These are regional centres so they tend to be where the larger hospitals/schools are, which again is heavily unionized.
These areas you see populism is more prominent, both the progressive populism and reactionary/conservative populism. pocket book policies play well here, which has not been where the Liberals campaign from, but the CONs do and the NDP does sometimes (or partially). Liberal support tends to come from wealthier people, but this group seems to swing between the CONs and LPC. 


But in some of these (esp. federally, as per this thread), the trend is quite recent, or qualified by spot circumstances.  Like in Sarnia-Lambton, the NDP only rose as a solid second-place factor over the past decade or so.  In Brantford, it was largely the personal strength of Derek Blackburn that kept the seat federally NDP through the 70s and 80s; but then the provincial Nixon Liberal machine transposed itself federally through Jane Stewart in the Chretien years.  And rust belt populism in Chatham-Kent and Essex actually worked to *Liberal* favour pre-Y2K--not only was Essex the bulwark of the Whelan family, but in 1988 (when the Libs were the strategically favoured alternative to the NDP's Steven Langdon) it saw what might well have been the worst Tory result in the *country* that election.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 13, 2019, 09:21:19 am
In Toronto, I only have a sense what's going on for the NDP in four ridings.

Toronto-Danforth:  Documentary filmmaker Min Sook Lee looks like she has it as her strongest opponent has dropped out.

Davenport:  Former MP Andrew Cash was acclaimed in December.  He is pretty much the perfect fit for the riding.

Parkdale-High Park:  Mayoral candidate and human rights lawyer Saron Gebresellassi and Foodshare executive director Paul Taylor are both seeking the nomination.

York South-Weston:  Yafet Tewelde seems to be the only one running and he has the backing of former MP Mike Sullivan.

The first three are very low hanging fruit, YSW is a "next tier" riding held by Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen.  No challengers yet for Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre) and Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale), also in the next tier.

Davenport is in my view the most likely NDP gain anywhere. The swing provincially was huge, and like the former MPP, the current MP is little more than a rank and file Liberal. This is one of the few areas where the NDP are still very palatable. Interesting that neither the Liberals or NDP nominated a Portuguese candidate, although obviously Cash is the best candidate here.

I still expect Parkdale-High Park and Toronto-Danforth to go orange. They're probably the next two likeliest gains on the list, unless Jack Harris runs in St. John's East as is rumoured.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on April 16, 2019, 12:47:15 pm
In the Toronto riding of Humber River-Black Creek, I am hearing that veteran city councillor Maria Augimeri and former TDSB trustee and 2018 council candidate Tiffany Ford are interested in the NDP nomination. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 16, 2019, 12:54:48 pm
In the Toronto riding of Humber River-Black Creek, I am hearing that veteran city councillor Maria Augimeri and former TDSB trustee and 2018 council candidate Tiffany Ford are interested in the NDP nomination. 

WOW, stellar candidates the both of them! I'd be happy if either were to run! Augimeri's ward unfortunately was not in Humber River-Black Creek (was the Downsview portion of York Centre).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 22, 2019, 06:43:37 pm


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 23, 2019, 02:39:38 pm
The retirement list seems to have reached an end. The Conservative retirements aren't that significant. For the Liberals, the two most interesting for me are in Cumberland-Colchester, to finally conclude what the Bill Casey effect really did, plus Oakville as Kevin Flynn is running for the Grits. There is another former MPP, Yvan Baker running against a former CPC MP (as well as Peter Fonseca, but he's an incumbent in a similar race to Baker.) Should be interesting to see how personal vote plays out here.

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 23, 2019, 06:20:56 pm

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 24, 2019, 08:03:31 am

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 24, 2019, 09:57:45 am

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.


I don't think REB or Dube will win, I appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. Some polls have the NDP at 7% in Quebec. REB, Caron and Boulerice are the only candidates I can see getting re-elected (maybe Dusseault or Aubin stuns us all.) Ramsey and Blaikie are also quite vulnerable in my view, and to say that Ramsey is a good candidate isn't wrong, but so is Chris Lewis. The CPC are also doing very well in the Prairies; people did not expect Toet to defeat Maloway in 2011 and he only lost very narrowly last time. Granted, some of those Indigenous Candidates will be strong. And how could I forget Charlie Angus? I had wanted him to win the election. In a way, they all seem good against the hyper-partisan Liberal representatives in my opinion.

My point is that may still not be enough for the NDP. With their numbers, they are unlikely to lose . And where there are candidates like Matthew Green, inevitably they may have a hard time filling the footsteps of someone like David Christopherson. Seats like Fin Donnelly's were notionally Conservative in 2011, and so they are at risk. The seats gained on Vancouver Island are probably not going Conservative again (other than the two Northern ones if we're in CPC majority or near-majority territory), but in the Southern half they are undoubtedly at risk.

I'm a CPC/NB PCs supporter so I feel we have equally good candidates, but the effec . Just like for you, someone like Daniel Lee should definitely win in Willowdale, but if the Liberals do well Ali Ehsassi would win. Same goes for Marty Morantz in Charleswood-St James, Rick Perkins in South Shore-St Margaret's, Irshad Chaudhry in Scarborough Centre, and Milad Mikael in Mississauga Centre. Some CPC MPs like Robert Gordon Kitchen in Souris-Moose Mountain, Rachael Harder in Lethbridge, Bob Saroya in Markham-Unionville and Cathy Wagantall in Yorkton-Melville get little coverage for themselves outside of their ridings despite being talented and experienced.
They could and in some cases should be in the executive in my view, but if they don't win then that's due to national trends. Voters won't recognise these new NDP candidates as well as their predecessors, or they may abandon their personal vote if they no longer find the NDP palatable (that applies particularly in Quebec, and I don't think that's solely due to this popular notion that Jagmeet Singh and his turban are out of step with Quebec, but simply because the NDP is no longer the progressive voice for Quebec in government or the main opposition party Quebecers can coalesce behind.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 24, 2019, 12:57:19 pm

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.


I don't think REB or Dube will win, I appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. Some polls have the NDP at 7% in Quebec. REB, Caron and Boulerice are the only candidates I can see getting re-elected (maybe Dusseault or Aubin stuns us all.) Ramsey and Blaikie are also quite vulnerable in my view, and to say that Ramsey is a good candidate isn't wrong, but so is Chris Lewis. The CPC are also doing very well in the Prairies; people did not expect Toet to defeat Maloway in 2011 and he only lost very narrowly last time. Granted, some of those Indigenous Candidates will be strong. And how could I forget Charlie Angus? I had wanted him to win the election. In a way, they all seem good against the hyper-partisan Liberal representatives in my opinion.

My point is that may still not be enough for the NDP. With their numbers, they are unlikely to lose . And where there are candidates like Matthew Green, inevitably they may have a hard time filling the footsteps of someone like David Christopherson. Seats like Fin Donnelly's were notionally Conservative in 2011, and so they are at risk. The seats gained on Vancouver Island are probably not going Conservative again (other than the two Northern ones if we're in CPC majority or near-majority territory), but in the Southern half they are undoubtedly at risk.

I'm a CPC/NB PCs supporter so I feel we have equally good candidates, but the effec . Just like for you, someone like Daniel Lee should definitely win in Willowdale, but if the Liberals do well Ali Ehsassi would win. Same goes for Marty Morantz in Charleswood-St James, Rick Perkins in South Shore-St Margaret's, Irshad Chaudhry in Scarborough Centre, and Milad Mikael in Mississauga Centre. Some CPC MPs like Robert Gordon Kitchen in Souris-Moose Mountain, Rachael Harder in Lethbridge, Bob Saroya in Markham-Unionville and Cathy Wagantall in Yorkton-Melville get little coverage for themselves outside of their ridings despite being talented and experienced.
They could and in some cases should be in the executive in my view, but if they don't win then that's due to national trends. Voters won't recognise these new NDP candidates as well as their predecessors, or they may abandon their personal vote if they no longer find the NDP palatable (that applies particularly in Quebec, and I don't think that's solely due to this popular notion that Jagmeet Singh and his turban are out of step with Quebec, but simply because the NDP is no longer the progressive voice for Quebec in government or the main opposition party Quebecers can coalesce behind.)

I think we need to be clear with Quebec, right now we can't predict it. The NDP have polled as high as around 20% and as low as, as you mentioned 7%. My feeling is for REB, she can likely survive due in part to her solidified position. I can realistically see the NDP hold 10-12 of their MPs if the NDP polls on the high side of 18% or so.

For Ramsey; the Windosr-Essex region while the CPC will increase the voter, should remain NDP as much of that will be LPC; while Lewis is a good candidate and performed well in the provincials, the three ridings all remained NDP on a massive swing towards the PCs province wide. Now we are post Ford, who has not done the Conservative image any favour. Ramsey has incumbency as well as a very good term under her belt. CPC will win more seats in ON, I feel the trend will look like ON18, gains in the GTA area, and Eastern/NE Ontario where the seats are LPC (Bay of Quinte, Northumberland, Nipissing)
Agreed, the CPC is polling very high out west, I can see the CPC winning 4 in Winnipeg and 4 in Alberta all held by the LPC)
My point with the new candidates replacing highly regarded MPs, the local ridings have done a good job of finding locally well known candidates with government experience (municipal) these are all (with the exception of Port Moody-Coquitlam) strong NDP seats. The Van suburbs are true three way races, and the CPC and NDP have all been up in BC.
All those CPC candidates, I agree I can see them winning.
For the NDP, I think we are seeing, slowly some of the NDP->LPC voters from 2015 migrating back. Jagmeet is performing well in the House, and policy wise have made strong announcements (that importantly is pleasing the base, in contract to Mulcair) The sunny ways LPC is gone and the boogeyman and fear mongering LPC is back (and some of that is justified since Scheer is frightfully regressive socially and scares people like me) I'm NDP/Dem.Socialist if you could not tell :P



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 24, 2019, 01:52:45 pm

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.


I don't think REB or Dube will win, I appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. Some polls have the NDP at 7% in Quebec. REB, Caron and Boulerice are the only candidates I can see getting re-elected (maybe Dusseault or Aubin stuns us all.) Ramsey and Blaikie are also quite vulnerable in my view, and to say that Ramsey is a good candidate isn't wrong, but so is Chris Lewis. The CPC are also doing very well in the Prairies; people did not expect Toet to defeat Maloway in 2011 and he only lost very narrowly last time. Granted, some of those Indigenous Candidates will be strong. And how could I forget Charlie Angus? I had wanted him to win the election. In a way, they all seem good against the hyper-partisan Liberal representatives in my opinion.

My point is that may still not be enough for the NDP. With their numbers, they are unlikely to lose . And where there are candidates like Matthew Green, inevitably they may have a hard time filling the footsteps of someone like David Christopherson. Seats like Fin Donnelly's were notionally Conservative in 2011, and so they are at risk. The seats gained on Vancouver Island are probably not going Conservative again (other than the two Northern ones if we're in CPC majority or near-majority territory), but in the Southern half they are undoubtedly at risk.

I'm a CPC/NB PCs supporter so I feel we have equally good candidates, but the effec . Just like for you, someone like Daniel Lee should definitely win in Willowdale, but if the Liberals do well Ali Ehsassi would win. Same goes for Marty Morantz in Charleswood-St James, Rick Perkins in South Shore-St Margaret's, Irshad Chaudhry in Scarborough Centre, and Milad Mikael in Mississauga Centre. Some CPC MPs like Robert Gordon Kitchen in Souris-Moose Mountain, Rachael Harder in Lethbridge, Bob Saroya in Markham-Unionville and Cathy Wagantall in Yorkton-Melville get little coverage for themselves outside of their ridings despite being talented and experienced.
They could and in some cases should be in the executive in my view, but if they don't win then that's due to national trends. Voters won't recognise these new NDP candidates as well as their predecessors, or they may abandon their personal vote if they no longer find the NDP palatable (that applies particularly in Quebec, and I don't think that's solely due to this popular notion that Jagmeet Singh and his turban are out of step with Quebec, but simply because the NDP is no longer the progressive voice for Quebec in government or the main opposition party Quebecers can coalesce behind.)

I think we need to be clear with Quebec, right now we can't predict it. The NDP have polled as high as around 20% and as low as, as you mentioned 7%. My feeling is for REB, she can likely survive due in part to her solidified position. I can realistically see the NDP hold 10-12 of their MPs if the NDP polls on the high side of 18% or so.

For Ramsey; the Windosr-Essex region while the CPC will increase the voter, should remain NDP as much of that will be LPC; while Lewis is a good candidate and performed well in the provincials, the three ridings all remained NDP on a massive swing towards the PCs province wide. Now we are post Ford, who has not done the Conservative image any favour. Ramsey has incumbency as well as a very good term under her belt. CPC will win more seats in ON, I feel the trend will look like ON18, gains in the GTA area, and Eastern/NE Ontario where the seats are LPC (Bay of Quinte, Northumberland, Nipissing)
Agreed, the CPC is polling very high out west, I can see the CPC winning 4 in Winnipeg and 4 in Alberta all held by the LPC)
My point with the new candidates replacing highly regarded MPs, the local ridings have done a good job of finding locally well known candidates with government experience (municipal) these are all (with the exception of Port Moody-Coquitlam) strong NDP seats. The Van suburbs are true three way races, and the CPC and NDP have all been up in BC.
All those CPC candidates, I agree I can see them winning.
For the NDP, I think we are seeing, slowly some of the NDP->LPC voters from 2015 migrating back. Jagmeet is performing well in the House, and policy wise have made strong announcements (that importantly is pleasing the base, in contract to Mulcair) The sunny ways LPC is gone and the boogeyman and fear mongering LPC is back (and some of that is justified since Scheer is frightfully regressive socially and scares people like me) I'm NDP/Dem.Socialist if you could not tell :P



Indeed. I should make it clear don't think the NDP will lose all those open seats. I can't see them losing Hamilton Centre or Skeena-Bulkley Valley. and I think they are the favourites in London-Fanshawe and Edmonton-Strathcona. Their strength in BC at different levels should help them in Nanaimo-Ladysmith as Horgan is doing decently in the relevant files. If you aren't on Election Prediction Project already, I wouldn't mind seeing some of your projections.

Side point, but if there is one NDP MP I wouldn't mind winning at the expense of the Conservatives, it's Georgina Jolibois. She has been a very strong MP on the Indigenous File, something both my party and the governing Liberals have failed on. Charlie Angus will win without question, but with Romeo Saganash gone, he could use another strong voice.  If any other group were flooded every year and needed help from the government, they would do a better job than this.

Indeed, the NDP class of 2015 are just as good, if not better than the class of 2011, which is probably a thing with waves where bad candidates can be elected. In 2011 you got Jonathan Genest-Jourdain, Brad Butt and Sana Hassainia, and in 2015 you got Nick Whalen, Rene Arseneault and Jati Sidhu (but there was a REB/Boulerice in 2011 and an Erskine-Smith/Wilson-Raybould/Blair in 2015.) Good candidates lose in bad elections and bad candidates win in good elections, which is unfortunate but that's party politics.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 24, 2019, 07:03:46 pm


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LoneStarDem on April 24, 2019, 08:01:58 pm
I see Duterte trashed Trudeau.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 28, 2019, 03:16:32 am
Rodger Cuzner, one of the best MPs in Ottawa is retiring. (he was the MP for Cape Breton-Canso)

Safe for the Grits, but this is their 5th retirement from Nova Scotia (Brison, Casey, Eyking, and C Fraser also.) Casey's seat will likely go blue, Fraser's is also at risk. The others are all advantage for the Liberals; Brison's old seat of Kings-Hants is the most vulnerable of the likely/safe Liberal districts here.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 28, 2019, 09:25:20 am
Rodger Cuzner, one of the best MPs in Ottawa is retiring. (he was the MP for Cape Breton-Canso)

Safe for the Grits, but this is their 5th retirement from Nova Scotia (Brison, Casey, Eyking, and C Fraser also.) Casey's seat will likely go blue, Fraser's is also at risk. The others are all advantage for the Liberals; Brison's old seat of Kings-Hants is the most vulnerable of the likely/safe Liberal districts here.

It will be interesting to see how much of the Liberals' Kings-Hants margin was Brison's personal vote. He was very popular there, but the riding is also more naturally Liberal than a typical rural Anglo one.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on April 28, 2019, 07:02:15 pm
Pretty sure Cuzner's riding will stay Liberal, very safe one although ironically it did go mostly PC in the last provincial election but I doubt that will spill over federally.  Bill Casey's is most likely to flip, Fraser's possible but considering how heavily the area went Liberal I think they will hold it by a narrower margins.  Brison's is a traditional Tory seat, but a Red Tory one so I think Liberals have better chance here.  If federal Tories had a Red Tory leader they could probably win it, but ever since the merger there is no way the base would let that happen.  Looking at Nova Scotia in terms of potential Tory pickups.

I would say Cumberland-Colchester is only likely one at the moment.  Central Nova, West Nova, South Shore-St. Margaret's and Kings-Hants possible but not likely.  Central Nova would flip if Peter MacKay returned but I think with him out it will probably stay liberal but by a much narrower margin.  In South Shore-St. Margaret's, Gerald Keddy's wins were always very narrow and he benefited from a strong split on the left so if NDP does better than I think Tories could win it, but if they remain in the ditch Liberals should hold it even if Tories rebound to high 30s (that is their ceiling there).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 28, 2019, 10:18:16 pm
It’s also quite conceivable that the NDP could win back Halifax from the Liberals


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Not_A_Man on April 29, 2019, 08:40:34 am
Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on April 29, 2019, 12:56:12 pm
Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?

Hard to say, but I think it is fair to say the Liberals who were never strong to begin with there will win it.  Most likely the Greens or NDP.  A remote chance Tories win, but very unlikely.  Greens did well last time and are gaining in polls so could win.  Traditionally an NDP stronghold so wouldn't surprised if they held it.  Tories haven't won here since 2000 back when NDP was at low point and Canadian Alliance at high point in BC.  Although Tories did get 40% in 2011 and that was with the left united behind the NDP.  I doubt Tories will get much above 30%, but if they got in low 30s and had perfect splits possible, but essentially they would need to pull an inside straight.  So toss-up between Greens and NDP at the moment.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 29, 2019, 02:45:50 pm
Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?

Hard to say, but I think it is fair to say the Liberals who were never strong to begin with there will win it.  Most likely the Greens or NDP.  A remote chance Tories win, but very unlikely.  Greens did well last time and are gaining in polls so could win.  Traditionally an NDP stronghold so wouldn't surprised if they held it.  Tories haven't won here since 2000 back when NDP was at low point and Canadian Alliance at high point in BC.  Although Tories did get 40% in 2011 and that was with the left united behind the NDP.  I doubt Tories will get much above 30%, but if they got in low 30s and had perfect splits possible, but essentially they would need to pull an inside straight.  So toss-up between Greens and NDP at the moment.

Being on the opposite coast, you would have a better idea than I do, but I was under the impression that the NDP's chances had improved (partly due to star candidacy) and that the Greens were no longer the favourite. I suspect it will go down to the wire.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LoneStarDem on April 29, 2019, 02:55:03 pm
What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on April 29, 2019, 03:06:59 pm
What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

He's an underdog. Normally Canadian PMs trailing during their term, particularly at this stage go onto lose. He's not toast just yet, and gaining a few seats in Quebec (e.g. Abitibi-Temiscamingue) might put him over the line. But he's highly likely to lose his majority. Trailing by a few points is a significant blow - the numbers should mean more damage they imply. Indeed, all the fluke ridings (e.g. Hastings-Lennox, Fundy Royal, Kildonan) should be easy pickups for the Conservatives. The real battlegrounds appear to be what should've been the battlegrounds last time, but were actually comfortably Liberal (e.g. Glengarry, Fredericton, Coquitlam, and some further for the Conservatives e.g. West Nova, Delta, London-Fanshawe (an example of an open NDP seat the Conservatives are targeting)

A Leger poll just came out showing the Liberals trailing by 13%. It may be closer, but it's an indication that a Conservative majority is in reach.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on April 29, 2019, 03:13:39 pm
What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LabourJersey on April 29, 2019, 05:38:28 pm
What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.

How long could an arrangement like a minority Trudeau gov't last, realistically? I'm guessing nothing more than a couple years


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 29, 2019, 06:24:55 pm
Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?

Hard to say, but I think it is fair to say the Liberals who were never strong to begin with there will win it.  Most likely the Greens or NDP.  A remote chance Tories win, but very unlikely.  Greens did well last time and are gaining in polls so could win.  Traditionally an NDP stronghold so wouldn't surprised if they held it.  Tories haven't won here since 2000 back when NDP was at low point and Canadian Alliance at high point in BC.  Although Tories did get 40% in 2011 and that was with the left united behind the NDP.  I doubt Tories will get much above 30%, but if they got in low 30s and had perfect splits possible, but essentially they would need to pull an inside straight.  So toss-up between Greens and NDP at the moment.

Being on the opposite coast, you would have a better idea than I do, but I was under the impression that the NDP's chances had improved (partly due to star candidacy) and that the Greens were no longer the favourite. I suspect it will go down to the wire.


And I'll also assume that the NDP has a *lot* invested in the riding--and remember,  in BC, the affiliation is not a dirty or marginal word.  At this point, for the NDP to play second fiddle to the Greens is more of an east coast thing, not a west coast thing...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: trebor204 on April 29, 2019, 09:01:13 pm
The Leger Poll has the NDP at 12% and the Green at 11%

Regionally in Quebec the NDP are in 5th place (6%), behind Liberal (31%), Conservative (23%), BQ (23%) and Greens (9%), and only 2% ahead both the People's Party and Other.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on April 30, 2019, 12:58:29 am
Right now, I suppose a real question is who will be included in the debates--if the Greens are polling this close to the NDP, the optics would look silly to include Jagmeet Singh yet exclude Elizabeth May...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2019, 01:21:10 am
What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.

How long could an arrangement like a minority Trudeau gov't last, realistically? I'm guessing nothing more than a couple years

Depends on what type of minority:

1.  Liberal Minority 2-3 years.  NDP will be broke and depending on how they do may even involve a leadership convention so won't want to bring down the government too quickly.  May pledge to support them for a full four years with certain conditions, but Trudeau has the upper hand so could ignore them.  Tories won't support them, but may abstain if their poll numbers aren't great and if Scheer resigns (unlikely since if he gains seats probably gets a second chance) will wait until new leader is in.

2.  Conservatives win plurality of seats, but Liberals form government with support from NDP and maybe Greens - at least 2 years maybe full four.  In this case will probably want an iron clad guarantee from opposition to support for certain time period and in turn the NDP and maybe Greens will probably have certain conditions in exchange for support.  I am thinking for NDP, promise to implement universal Pharmacare will be one.  They want won't to pull the plug until fully implemented as risk Tories would cancel it if they win, but once fully implemented too risky to undo.  Tories will stomp their feet and complain how it is an illegitimate government, but won't be able to bring it down.

3.  Conservative minority - 1-2 years - This will happen if Liberals + NDP + Greens fall short of 170 seats and need to rely on BQ or Trudeau decides to resign and let Scheer govern (latter seems unlikely, but I put it in just to cover all bases).  In this case Liberals and NDP won't bring down the government until they have a full war chest and in case of Liberals until they have a new leader in place, so will abstain on confidence matters, but once those are in order will bring them down.  Also like Harper, opposition parties make take turns abstaining since if it requires all them to bring them government down, so Scheer just has to hope one of them has lousy poll numbers as parties rarely bring down a government if their polls tell them they will lose seats.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 30, 2019, 08:43:15 am
One thing has not been discussed very at all is what happens with the Senate if Scheer forms a government. Right now about three-quarters of the Senate is composed of either Liberals or liberals (in other words the non-partisans Trudeau has appointed). These non-partisans in the Senate will not feel bound by any convention to hold their nose and pass government legislation and as a result a Scheer government would quickly face a constitutional crisis as a result of not being able to pass much of its legislation thorugh the Senate


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 30, 2019, 09:00:18 am
One thing has not been discussed very at all is what happens with the Senate if Scheer forms a government. Right now about three-quarters of the Senate is composed of either Liberals or liberals (in other words the non-partisans Trudeau has appointed). These non-partisans in the Senate will not feel bound by any convention to hold their nose and pass government legislation and as a result a Scheer government would quickly face a constitutional crisis as a result of not being able to pass much of its legislation thorugh the Senate

As opposed to the Liberal majority Senate Harper faced initially?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on April 30, 2019, 09:38:11 am
Nanos Weekly
https://bit.ly/2WgW9Rc

CPC - 34.91%
LPC - 32.02%
NDP -16.46%
GRN - 9.03%

->BC
CPC - 27.32%
LPC - 26%
NDP - 24.88%
GRN - 21.80%
- Both the NDP and Greens have gained 10 point since the beginning of April (10ish and 8ish point gains)

->QC
LPC - 33.19%
NDP - 15.40%
CPC - 15.42%
BQ - 17.48%



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 30, 2019, 10:08:01 am
What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.

How long could an arrangement like a minority Trudeau gov't last, realistically? I'm guessing nothing more than a couple years

Depends on what type of minority:

1.  Liberal Minority 2-3 years.  NDP will be broke and depending on how they do may even involve a leadership convention so won't want to bring down the government too quickly.  May pledge to support them for a full four years with certain conditions, but Trudeau has the upper hand so could ignore them.  Tories won't support them, but may abstain if their poll numbers aren't great and if Scheer resigns (unlikely since if he gains seats probably gets a second chance) will wait until new leader is in.

2.  Conservatives win plurality of seats, but Liberals form government with support from NDP and maybe Greens - at least 2 years maybe full four.  In this case will probably want an iron clad guarantee from opposition to support for certain time period and in turn the NDP and maybe Greens will probably have certain conditions in exchange for support.  I am thinking for NDP, promise to implement universal Pharmacare will be one.  They want won't to pull the plug until fully implemented as risk Tories would cancel it if they win, but once fully implemented too risky to undo.  Tories will stomp their feet and complain how it is an illegitimate government, but won't be able to bring it down.

3.  Conservative minority - 1-2 years - This will happen if Liberals + NDP + Greens fall short of 170 seats and need to rely on BQ orTrudeau decides to resign and let Scheer govern (latter seems unlikely, but I put it in just to cover all bases).  In this case Liberals and NDP won't bring down the government until they have a full war chest and in case of Liberals until they have a new leader in place, so will abstain on confidence matters, but once those are in order will bring them down.  Also like Harper, opposition parties make take turns abstaining since if it requires all them to bring them government down, so Scheer just has to hope one of them has lousy poll numbers as parties rarely bring down a government if their polls tell them they will lose seats.

There's another plausible (and somewhat likely in my opinion) Tory minority scenario:

Liberal+NDP have a majority. Scheer still forms a government, not because Trudeau decided to go quietly but because either:

a) Trudeau and Singh cannot come to a working agreement.

b) The NDP decides that it isn't in their best interest to prop up a scandal ridden Trudeau government

In which case we probably get new elections within 18 months.

As I've said before, I think Atlas and other political social media groups overstate the likelihood of the Liberals and NDP working together to overcome a Tory plurality. I get the impression that they conflate the interests of the Liberals and NDP with the interests of progressive voters active on social media.

In Canada these sort of arrangements have typically been to topple an unpopular incumbent. That has very different optics than the NDP making an agreement with a Prime Minister they just spent the last six months (rightly) slamming as corrupt and arrogant.

A Liberal-NDP agreement certainly isn't impossible or even unlikely, but to simply dismiss the historic norm for minority election results is veering into the sort of "here's how Bernie can still win" type of error we political junkies are prone to.


->BC
CPC - 27.32%
LPC - 26%
NDP - 24.88%
GRN - 21.80%
- Both the NDP and Greens have gained 10 point since the beginning of April (10ish and 8ish point gains)



Man that would be an interesting result.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 30, 2019, 10:35:00 am
One thing has not been discussed very at all is what happens with the Senate if Scheer forms a government. Right now about three-quarters of the Senate is composed of either Liberals or liberals (in other words the non-partisans Trudeau has appointed). These non-partisans in the Senate will not feel bound by any convention to hold their nose and pass government legislation and as a result a Scheer government would quickly face a constitutional crisis as a result of not being able to pass much of its legislation thorugh the Senate

As opposed to the Liberal majority Senate Harper faced initially?

In 2006 it actually did cause problems for Harper to face a Liberal majority in the senate, BUT there was a huge difference. Those Liberal senators formed a caucus and they were all part of the old regime where there was a tacit acknowledgement that the appointed Senate should not reject bills passed by the elected Senate. We are in uncharted waters now with a majority of the senate now sitting as Independents who all think that the fact they are senators chosen for their personal qualities and not for having been party bagmen in the past and that this makes them God's gift to the world and they see themselves as having a legitimacy that the old partisan senators did not have. No one can tell them what to do and I suspect they will not hesitate to vote down Tory measures they don't like. Scheer may have to "pack" the senate like Mulroney did in 1988 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 30, 2019, 10:59:24 am

There's another plausible (and somewhat likely in my opinion) Tory minority scenario:

Liberal+NDP have a majority. Scheer still forms a government, not because Trudeau decided to go quietly but because either:

a) Trudeau and Singh cannot come to a working agreement.

b) The NDP decides that it isn't in their best interest to prop up a scandal ridden Trudeau government

In which case we probably get new elections within 18 months.

As I've said before, I think Atlas and other political social media groups overstate the likelihood of the Liberals and NDP working together to overcome a Tory plurality. I get the impression that they conflate the interests of the Liberals and NDP with the interests of progressive voters active on social media.

In Canada these sort of arrangements have typically been to topple an unpopular incumbent. That has very different optics than the NDP making an agreement with a Prime Minister they just spent the last six months (rightly) slamming as corrupt and arrogant.

A Liberal-NDP agreement certainly isn't impossible or even unlikely, but to simply dismiss the historic norm for minority election results is veering into the sort of "here's how Bernie can still win" type of error we political junkies are prone to.


I have to disagree.

a) Trudeau and Singh don't need to come to any agreement. Trudeau is the incumbent and he has a right to present a Throne speech and try to govern. As an NDP member myself, i know that party pretty well. There is zero chance that the NDP would vote with the Tories to topple Trudeau at that stage knowing that it would mean Scheer forming government and then having to pass Throne speech himself - and if that failed we would face a second election the same year and there would be absolutely no upside for the NDP in triggering that. Does anyone seriously think the NDP would vote against a Liberal Throne speech that would likely be heavily larded with items relating to pharmacare and child care and the environment so that two weeks later they could vote in favour of a Tory Throne speech that would be full of draconian cuts to social spending, anti-labour stuff, lots of climate change denial and tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy etc...

There may be lots of "narcissism of small difference" issues that separate the Liberals and NDP - but seriously i can think of lots of policy concession that the Liberals would be only too happy to make to stay in power. In contrast I cannot think of ANY policy whatsoever where the Tories and NDP have any common ground (can you?). There would literally be nothing to discuss. On top of that while NDP MPs and insiders may see the Liberals as their competition for votes, they also tend to see the Reformatories under Scheer as an existential threat to Canada and as a "mini-Trump"

b) while the SNC Lavalin affair is a "thing" its a stretch to call this a "scandal ridden" government. A true scandal ridden government was the Liberal government of the early 00s what with the sponsorship scandal. As you may recall, the NDP made a deal with Paul Martin that was widely seen as a good deal from an NDP perspective and the NDP gained seats in the subsequent election


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 30, 2019, 11:41:10 am
Then Scheer could propose a Parliament Act-type constitutional amendment, since the constitutional provision Mulroney used only allows for a limited number of appointments.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Not_A_Man on April 30, 2019, 11:50:41 am
There's no chance of the Senate being made elected right?  My understanding is that the Tories and Liberals are opposed to that wholeheartedly (Tories more opposed than Liberals however).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 30, 2019, 12:17:03 pm
There's no chance of the Senate being made elected right?  My understanding is that the Tories and Liberals are opposed to that wholeheartedly (Tories more opposed than Liberals however).

The Tories have supported an elected Senate in the past but the fact is it would require a constitutional amendment requiring unanimous consent of the provinces so it can never happen


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 30, 2019, 12:38:39 pm

There's another plausible (and somewhat likely in my opinion) Tory minority scenario:

Liberal+NDP have a majority. Scheer still forms a government, not because Trudeau decided to go quietly but because either:

a) Trudeau and Singh cannot come to a working agreement.

b) The NDP decides that it isn't in their best interest to prop up a scandal ridden Trudeau government

In which case we probably get new elections within 18 months.

As I've said before, I think Atlas and other political social media groups overstate the likelihood of the Liberals and NDP working together to overcome a Tory plurality. I get the impression that they conflate the interests of the Liberals and NDP with the interests of progressive voters active on social media.

In Canada these sort of arrangements have typically been to topple an unpopular incumbent. That has very different optics than the NDP making an agreement with a Prime Minister they just spent the last six months (rightly) slamming as corrupt and arrogant.

A Liberal-NDP agreement certainly isn't impossible or even unlikely, but to simply dismiss the historic norm for minority election results is veering into the sort of "here's how Bernie can still win" type of error we political junkies are prone to.


I have to disagree.

a) Trudeau and Singh don't need to come to any agreement. Trudeau is the incumbent and he has a right to present a Throne speech and try to govern. As an NDP member myself, i know that party pretty well. There is zero chance that the NDP would vote with the Tories to topple Trudeau at that stage knowing that it would mean Scheer forming government and then having to pass Throne speech himself - and if that failed we would face a second election the same year and there would be absolutely no upside for the NDP in triggering that. Does anyone seriously think the NDP would vote against a Liberal Throne speech that would likely be heavily larded with items relating to pharmacare and child care and the environment so that two weeks later they could vote in favour of a Tory Throne speech that would be full of draconian cuts to social spending, anti-labour stuff, lots of climate change denial and tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy etc...

There may be lots of "narcissism of small difference" issues that separate the Liberals and NDP - but seriously i can think of lots of policy concession that the Liberals would be only too happy to make to stay in power. In contrast I cannot think of ANY policy whatsoever where the Tories and NDP have any common ground (can you?). There would literally be nothing to discuss. On top of that while NDP MPs and insiders may see the Liberals as their competition for votes, they also tend to see the Reformatories under Scheer as an existential threat to Canada and as a "mini-Trump"

b) while the SNC Lavalin affair is a "thing" its a stretch to call this a "scandal ridden" government. A true scandal ridden government was the Liberal government of the early 00s what with the sponsorship scandal. As you may recall, the NDP made a deal with Paul Martin that was widely seen as a good deal from an NDP perspective and the NDP gained seats in the subsequent election

I should clarify: When I talked about 'Liberal-NDP' agreements, I meant either a coalition or a formal BC/NB style confidence and supply agreement.  I still think that is quite unlikely given the optics of the scenario.

Trading policy concessions for votes on a case by case basis  is a totally different matter, and of course has a long history in Canadian politics. I can definitely see something like Pharmacare for Throne Speech votes happening. Propping up the 2nd place PM has less history, but its also more precedented and way less problematic from the NDP than a coalition.

Now to quibble with your account: it doesn't follow that the NDP would have to vote for a Tory throne speech just because they voted down a Liberal one. Indeed something similar happened in 2007, where the NDP voted down a Liberal amendment to a Tory throne speech, and the Tory throne speech itself, forcing a game of chicken with the Liberals. The Liberals wound up abstaining. That seems like a plausible outcome as well.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 30, 2019, 12:44:08 pm
One thing has not been discussed very at all is what happens with the Senate if Scheer forms a government. Right now about three-quarters of the Senate is composed of either Liberals or liberals (in other words the non-partisans Trudeau has appointed). These non-partisans in the Senate will not feel bound by any convention to hold their nose and pass government legislation and as a result a Scheer government would quickly face a constitutional crisis as a result of not being able to pass much of its legislation thorugh the Senate

As opposed to the Liberal majority Senate Harper faced initially?

In 2006 it actually did cause problems for Harper to face a Liberal majority in the senate, BUT there was a huge difference. Those Liberal senators formed a caucus and they were all part of the old regime where there was a tacit acknowledgement that the appointed Senate should not reject bills passed by the elected Senate. We are in uncharted waters now with a majority of the senate now sitting as Independents who all think that the fact they are senators chosen for their personal qualities and not for having been party bagmen in the past and that this makes them God's gift to the world and they see themselves as having a legitimacy that the old partisan senators did not have. No one can tell them what to do and I suspect they will not hesitate to vote down Tory measures they don't like. Scheer may have to "pack" the senate like Mulroney did in 1988 

Hmm that's an interesting question. Just eyeballing it, but it looks like the number of Tory + Toryish independent senators is still short of a majority, even with the Senate packing provision. That would be a fun constitutional crisis :P


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 30, 2019, 01:14:13 pm

Now to quibble with your account: it doesn't follow that the NDP would have to vote for a Tory throne speech just because they voted down a Liberal one. Indeed something similar happened in 2007, where the NDP voted down a Liberal amendment to a Tory throne speech, and the Tory throne speech itself, forcing a game of chicken with the Liberals. The Liberals wound up abstaining. That seems like a plausible outcome as well.

Well I suppose that if we had a scenario where the Tories actually had more seats than the Liberals, the NDP could abstain on a Tory Throne speech and it would pass. But I suspect that the Liberals would do absolutely anything possible to avoid relinquishing power in the first place. They would either dare the NDP to defeat them and bring Scheer to power or they would agree to a slew of NDP demands - or some combination of the two.

There are things Trudeau and Singh could discuss and negotiate. There is literally nothing for Singh to talk about with Scheer


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: UWS on April 30, 2019, 01:43:41 pm

Now to quibble with your account: it doesn't follow that the NDP would have to vote for a Tory throne speech just because they voted down a Liberal one. Indeed something similar happened in 2007, where the NDP voted down a Liberal amendment to a Tory throne speech, and the Tory throne speech itself, forcing a game of chicken with the Liberals. The Liberals wound up abstaining. That seems like a plausible outcome as well.

Well I suppose that if we had a scenario where the Tories actually had more seats than the Liberals, the NDP could abstain on a Tory Throne speech and it would pass. But I suspect that the Liberals would do absolutely anything possible to avoid relinquishing power in the first place. They would either dare the NDP to defeat them and bring Scheer to power or they would agree to a slew of NDP demands - or some combination of the two.

There are things Trudeau and Singh could discuss and negotiate. There is literally nothing for Singh to talk about with Scheer

You mean that Trudeau and Singh would form a coalition government?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on April 30, 2019, 01:52:56 pm

Now to quibble with your account: it doesn't follow that the NDP would have to vote for a Tory throne speech just because they voted down a Liberal one. Indeed something similar happened in 2007, where the NDP voted down a Liberal amendment to a Tory throne speech, and the Tory throne speech itself, forcing a game of chicken with the Liberals. The Liberals wound up abstaining. That seems like a plausible outcome as well.

Well I suppose that if we had a scenario where the Tories actually had more seats than the Liberals, the NDP could abstain on a Tory Throne speech and it would pass. But I suspect that the Liberals would do absolutely anything possible to avoid relinquishing power in the first place. They would either dare the NDP to defeat them and bring Scheer to power or they would agree to a slew of NDP demands - or some combination of the two.

There are things Trudeau and Singh could discuss and negotiate. There is literally nothing for Singh to talk about with Scheer

You mean that Trudeau and Singh would form a coalition government?

No, Canada doesn't do coalitions.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 30, 2019, 02:40:04 pm

You mean that Trudeau and Singh would form a coalition government?

No, Canada doesn't do coalitions.

A. No I don't think there is any chance of an actual coalition, but there could be horse trading in exchange for a CASA (Confidence and Supply Agreement).
B. We actually have had coalitions in Canada...the Union government during WW1 and Liberal/Conservative coalitions in the 50s in manitoba... and 1999-2003 there was an NDP/Liberal coalition in Saskatchewan and we came very close to having one federally in 2008. The time for it will come...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2019, 03:25:16 pm
Actually if Tories win plurality we are in unchartered waters so while I think it would probably mean Liberals staying on its tough to say for sure.

In the past usually there haven't been as stark an ideological divides so Liberals or NDP were able to let Tories govern without angering their bases too much, but with today's polarization not sure that could work.  At the same time everytime a second place party formed government, it was to remove a government that had been in power for a very long time, i.e. Ontario 1985, BC 2017, not for a party to stay on especially one with an approval rating down in the 30s. 

Either way I suspect Trudeau will be asked by the media if his party doesn't win the most seats will they try to form government so if he says yes or maybe one can argue he will have a mandate, if he explicitly rules it out but then does it, it will look really bad.  I think not only will his answer give us many clues, but also could influence how people vote and likewise I suspect his will be tactical.  If internal polls show there is a strong desire to get rid of the Liberals, but some unease about the Tories, he will probably say no as saying yes will just increase chances of Tory majority, but if polls still show it tight either way he may leave the door open.  On the other hand ruling out is probably the best strategy simply to motivate his supporters to show up.  If you frame it that Liberals must beat Tories in seats, more likely supporters will show up and more likely NDP and Greens will vote strategically, whereas if you frame it as we just need to stop a Tory majority, progressives are probably less likely to vote strategically so more vote splits which helps the Tories.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on April 30, 2019, 03:38:56 pm
I can guarantee you that if the last Ontario election had yielded 60 PCs under Doug Ford and say 38 Liberals under Wynne and 30 NDP under Horwath - as much as the NDP would rather have preferred to eat crushed glass than prop up such a discredited Kathleen Wynne - there is no way that Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath would have allowed Doug Ford to take power knowing how much damage he would do.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2019, 04:26:44 pm
I can guarantee you that if the last Ontario election had yielded 60 PCs under Doug Ford and say 38 Liberals under Wynne and 30 NDP under Horwath - as much as the NDP would rather have preferred to eat crushed glass than prop up such a discredited Kathleen Wynne - there is no way that Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath would have allowed Doug Ford to take power knowing how much damage he would do.

That is probably true, although think if Brown, Elliott, or Mulroney were leader they would have.  Scheer is more polarizing and disliked more by the left than those two but not hated as much as Doug Ford who pretty much everyone outside the base hates.  I also think had that scenario emerged NDP would have demanded Wynne's resignation and Liberals choose a new leader as a price which they just might do with Trudeau so involves changing PM, but not Tories winning.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on April 30, 2019, 08:45:58 pm
I am hearing a third candidate plans to enter the Parkdale-High Park NDP nomination race:  pundit Tom Parkin.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on May 01, 2019, 06:52:59 am
I am hearing a third candidate plans to enter the Parkdale-High Park NDP nomination race:  pundit Tom Parkin.

Wow... but really, this is a stacked field already. Why not run somewhere else and try and get MORE strong NDP candidates nominated.
I know University-Rosedale is going to be hard against Freeland, but probably the most demographically "fitting" riding for Paikin
Spadina-Fort York, same against Vaughan (although not in cabinet and not the most likable guy, so of the three probably the weakest LPC MPs) but probably the most progressive-swingy riding.
Toronto Centre, almost no one will defeat Morneau... probably Councillor Wong-Tam
Toronto-St.Paul's, even more of a long shot, didn't even think the ONDP would win this one.

anyway, this is good for the NDP (if it's true)
 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 01, 2019, 08:38:15 am
Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 01, 2019, 08:39:22 am
Tommy, are you confusing Tom Parkin with Steve Paikin of TVO?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on May 01, 2019, 08:55:29 am
Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.

As far as I know he is the only contender for the nomination who lives in Parkdale-High Park (and has lived there for the last 30 years). He has also been president of the riding association there. Until recently he had a regular column in the Toronto Sun and now writes for ipolitics and Huffington Post and appears regulary on panels. People can debate whether he's the best candidate in PHP but I think he is likely the best known of the candidates...not that any of them are what anyone would call a "supernova".

Apparently Saron Gebreselassie lives in York South Weston and was riding association president there. i wonder why she didn't want the NDP nomination there? It elected a New Democrat provincially less than a year ago.

The other contender Paul Taylor seems to have impressive credentials but just moved to Toronto two years ago from Vancouver, has no history in the NDP and lives in Toronto Centre. I wonder why he doesnt run there? It also elected an NDP MPP last year by a wide margin and on top of that taylor is LGBTQ and Toronto Centre is where that community is centred.

Anyways, we shall see what happens.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 01, 2019, 10:14:57 am


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on May 01, 2019, 11:06:44 am
Tommy, are you confusing Tom Parkin with Steve Paikin of TVO?
... no, but I think I did just mix-up their names :P


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on May 01, 2019, 11:16:20 am
Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.

As far as I know he is the only contender for the nomination who lives in Parkdale-High Park (and has lived there for the last 30 years). He has also been president of the riding association there. Until recently he had a regular column in the Toronto Sun and now writes for ipolitics and Huffington Post and appears regulary on panels. People can debate whether he's the best candidate in PHP but I think he is likely the best known of the candidates...not that any of them are what anyone would call a "supernova".

Apparently Saron Gebreselassie lives in York South Weston and was riding association president there. i wonder why she didn't want the NDP nomination there? It elected a New Democrat provincially less than a year ago.

The other contender Paul Taylor seems to have impressive credentials but just moved to Toronto two years ago from Vancouver, has no history in the NDP and lives in Toronto Centre. I wonder why he doesnt run there? It also elected an NDP MPP last year by a wide margin and on top of that taylor is LGBTQ and Toronto Centre is where that community is centred.

Anyways, we shall see what happens.

So really, as per King of Kensington, it's likely that Gebresellassi and Taylor are looking for the best shots into Parliament.
Nothing stopping Taylor from running in TC if he loses PHP; and TC does sound like a better fit. But going up against the Finance Minister will be tough. Definitely in a better spot organisationally with Morrison as MPP.
For Gabresellassi, not sure why she did not run in YSW? it was an open nomination. She might be at a loss if she doesn't win the PHP nomination. Beaches-East York would be another targeted seat, but that's eastend so, maybe not. (Min Sook Lee basically has a lock on nomination Toronto-Danforth) 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on May 01, 2019, 11:47:07 am
What makes Toronto Centre "tough" is the fact that its historically a very Liberal area...the fact that Bill Morneau is the MP is really not much of a factor. I don't get the sense that he is much of a "constituency man" or that he has any personal following beyond the votes of people who would vote for any generic Liberal...and he is not a particularly popular Finance minister nor is he much of a retail politician


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 01, 2019, 12:24:03 pm
Agree with the assessment of Morneau.  I think of the MPs in the three downtown ridings he has the least of a personal brand.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on May 01, 2019, 06:20:59 pm
What makes Toronto Centre "tough" is the fact that its historically a very Liberal area...the fact that Bill Morneau is the MP is really not much of a factor. I don't get the sense that he is much of a "constituency man" or that he has any personal following beyond the votes of people who would vote for any generic Liberal...and he is not a particularly popular Finance minister nor is he much of a retail politician

Historically, true.  But when it comes to temperamental "true colours", keep in mind that Suze Morrison was the best ONDP performer among the three victorious downtown-riding contenders.  (True, TC also saw the best *OLP* performance of the three; but, still.)

Either of the three are "tough" for reasons beyond their sitting members: Spadina-Fort York has condoland, University-Rosedale has Rosedale, Toronto Centre has (perhaps) a weaker NDP infrastructure due to lack of elected history...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on May 01, 2019, 11:48:02 pm
Demographically Toronto Centre should be the best NDP seat of the three downtown ridings. It doesn’t have Rosedale anymore. It doesn’t have all that many high end condos like Spadina Fort York. It has a lot of downscale inner city housing and it votes very left municipally. Now that it has an NDP MPP provincially maybe at some point the dam will break federally


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Smid on May 02, 2019, 04:31:19 am
Agree with the assessment of Morneau.  I think of the MPs in the three downtown ridings he has the least of a personal brand.

Add to this that there is frequently a great deal of voter churn in downtown ridings, making it especially difficult for even a good retail politician to build a personal brand.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 02, 2019, 09:33:51 am
While obviously benefiting from the Liberal collapse and NDP rise, Suze Morrison is pretty impressive.  She was the least known of the candidates going into the TC NDP nomination but signed up a lot of people, beating out a candidate who got all these big endorsements (Olivia Chow, Mike Layton, Peter Tabuns etc.) and ran the "inevitable frontrunner" strategy but just didn't get the votes of people in the riding.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on May 02, 2019, 10:09:49 am
While obviously benefiting from the Liberal collapse and NDP rise, Suze Morrison is pretty impressive.  She was the least known of the candidates going into the TC NDP nomination but signed up a lot of people, beating out a candidate who got all these big endorsements (Olivia Chow, Mike Layton, Peter Tabuns etc.) and ran the "inevitable frontrunner" strategy but just didn't get the votes of people in the riding.

Suze Morrison has turned out to be a terrific MPP and she worked very hard to win that nomination at a time when the conventional wisdom was that whoever the NDP nominated would be a sacrificial lamb...but it should be noted that she only beat Kevin Beaulieu (the presumed frontrunner) by ONE vote after they re-ran the vote because it was initially a tie! 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 02, 2019, 01:31:45 pm
Demographically Toronto Centre should be the best NDP seat of the three downtown ridings. It doesn’t have Rosedale anymore. It doesn’t have all that many high end condos like Spadina Fort York. It has a lot of downscale inner city housing and it votes very left municipally. Now that it has an NDP MPP provincially maybe at some point the dam will break federally

For all the talk of Toronto being the most socioeconomically "inverted" city in North America (ie rich core), there's a lot more "downscale inner city housing" so close to the CBD compared to say Manhattan or Chicago.  TC actually has the highest poverty rate of any riding in Toronto, though there are of course ridings that are more thoroughly low income working class that have lower average incomes (i.e. York South-Weston, Humber, Scarborough-Guildwood and so on).

University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York are for the most part affluent with a few pockets of poverty.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on May 02, 2019, 04:20:30 pm
Demographically Toronto Centre should be the best NDP seat of the three downtown ridings. It doesn’t have Rosedale anymore. It doesn’t have all that many high end condos like Spadina Fort York. It has a lot of downscale inner city housing and it votes very left municipally. Now that it has an NDP MPP provincially maybe at some point the dam will break federally

For all the talk of Toronto being the most socioeconomically "inverted" city in North America (ie rich core), there's a lot more "downscale inner city housing" so close to the CBD compared to say Manhattan or Chicago.  TC actually has the highest poverty rate of any riding in Toronto, though there are of course ridings that are more thoroughly low income working class that have lower average incomes (i.e. York South-Weston, Humber, Scarborough-Guildwood and so on).

University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York are for the most part affluent with a few pockets of poverty.

I don't think income has as big an impact on voting as it used to.  Lots of poor people nowadays vote Tory (not here by elsewhere) while many upper middle class types vote NDP (super wealthy don't, but not many of them to begin with).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on May 02, 2019, 05:26:56 pm
I don't think income has as big an impact on voting as it used to.  Lots of poor people nowadays vote Tory (not here by elsewhere) while many upper middle class types vote NDP (super wealthy don't, but not many of them to begin with).

And oftentime, it's not about income so much as lifestyle-sorting; that is, areas like Trinity-Bellwoods may be trending upward, but those who are opting into such neighbourhoods also tend to opt into the leftish politics thereof, however "promiscuous" their leftism may be.

Same reason why New York, London, Paris have trended leftward even as they've gentrified out of "affordability".


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 02, 2019, 07:18:37 pm
And oftentime, it's not about income so much as lifestyle-sorting; that is, areas like Trinity-Bellwoods may be trending upward, but those who are opting into such neighbourhoods also tend to opt into the leftish politics thereof, however "promiscuous" their leftism may be.

Same reason why New York, London, Paris have trended leftward even as they've gentrified out of "affordability".

That "lifestyle sorting" was quite evident in the last provincial election.  Not only did all 8 inner Toronto ridings go NDP, but the Conservative vote share in the least "progressive" inner TO riding (St. Paul's) was lower than every single outer TO riding.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 03, 2019, 02:18:28 pm
TC was the weakest of the three downtown ridings for the federal Conservatives in 2015 as well.

In addition to the large low income population and social housing component, there's also a large LGBT community that is very anti-Conservative for obvious reasons.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on May 05, 2019, 03:25:05 am
Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.

As far as I know he is the only contender for the nomination who lives in Parkdale-High Park (and has lived there for the last 30 years). He has also been president of the riding association there. Until recently he had a regular column in the Toronto Sun and now writes for ipolitics and Huffington Post and appears regulary on panels. People can debate whether he's the best candidate in PHP but I think he is likely the best known of the candidates...not that any of them are what anyone would call a "supernova".

Apparently Saron Gebreselassie lives in York South Weston and was riding association president there. i wonder why she didn't want the NDP nomination there? It elected a New Democrat provincially less than a year ago.

The other contender Paul Taylor seems to have impressive credentials but just moved to Toronto two years ago from Vancouver, has no history in the NDP and lives in Toronto Centre. I wonder why he doesnt run there? It also elected an NDP MPP last year by a wide margin and on top of that taylor is LGBTQ and Toronto Centre is where that community is centred.

Anyways, we shall see what happens.

So really, as per King of Kensington, it's likely that Gebresellassi and Taylor are looking for the best shots into Parliament.
Nothing stopping Taylor from running in TC if he loses PHP; and TC does sound like a better fit. But going up against the Finance Minister will be tough. Definitely in a better spot organisationally with Morrison as MPP.
For Gabresellassi, not sure why she did not run in YSW? it was an open nomination. She might be at a loss if she doesn't win the PHP nomination. Beaches-East York would be another targeted seat, but that's eastend so, maybe not. (Min Sook Lee basically has a lock on nomination Toronto-Danforth) 

All the NDP candidates in PHP are at least credible, which they need to be of course.


If I had to rank the NDP's chances in their area I would go:


1. Davenport
2. Toronto-Danforth
3. Parkdale-High Park
-- (the point where it gets a lot harder)
4. York South-Weston
5. University-Rosedale
6. Beaches-East York (could easily swap 5&6)
-- (the point where it gets near impossible, at least for the moment)
7. Spadina-Fort York
8. Toronto Centre
9. Scarborough SW

Outside of that their next best shot is a long way away.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on May 05, 2019, 07:10:22 am
Actually I think that while it’s a long shot the NDP may have more of a chance in Humber Valley Black Creek than in some of the downtown ridings. It’s very poor, went NDP provincially, no name Liberal incumbent and a potential strong NDP candidate


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on May 05, 2019, 10:59:03 am
Actually I think that while it’s a long shot the NDP may have more of a chance in Humber Valley Black Creek than in some of the downtown ridings. It’s very poor, went NDP provincially, no name Liberal incumbent and a potential strong NDP candidate

Or more to the point than "no name Liberal incumbent": Judy Sgro's getting on in years, and who knows if retirement is in the cards (presumably on behalf of daughter Deanna, who ran provincially last year?)



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on May 05, 2019, 12:11:04 pm
Deanna Sgro is not very formidable. Not only did she lose provincially but she lost municipally too.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: vileplume on May 05, 2019, 02:33:31 pm
I don't think income has as big an impact on voting as it used to.  Lots of poor people nowadays vote Tory (not here by elsewhere) while many upper middle class types vote NDP (super wealthy don't, but not many of them to begin with).

And oftentime, it's not about income so much as lifestyle-sorting; that is, areas like Trinity-Bellwoods may be trending upward, but those who are opting into such neighbourhoods also tend to opt into the leftish politics thereof, however "promiscuous" their leftism may be.

Same reason why New York, London, Paris have trended leftward even as they've gentrified out of "affordability".

That's not what happened with London. The Tory collapse in London is caused by several factors:
1)Property in the wealthiest parts of London have been bought up as investments by the global super rich who can't vote. This has significantly increased the voting power of the poorer areas compared the wealthier areas.
2)Home ownership has collapsed with sky rocketing rents. One of the biggest indicators of whether someone is likely to be a Tory voter or not is if they own their own home (especially if they don't have a mortgage) because such people are more financially secure. In London though a disproportionate amount of people rent and given rents are so high many people actually have very little in the way of disposable income even if they have a good job on paper. Such people also have little to nothing in the way of savings making them very financially insecure and thus not very likely to be a Tory voter.
3)Previously respectable 'middle of the road' suburbs succumbing to urban decline. Going back several decades places like Enfield and Mitcham whilst hardly salubrious were unremarkable, bog-standard suburbia that was open to voting Conservative. However in recent decades many of the middle class/skilled working class residents left and moved to the Home Counties e.g. people from Mitcham moved to Epsom, Enfield to Cheshunt etc. Their former homes were often bought up by landlords and former family homes become rented out by room (as this is more profitable) and the areas went into sharp decline.

I don't pretend to be an expert on Toronto but I imagine the reason why your Conservatives struggle is down to similar factors i.e. the super rich buying up housing as investments leading to under-occupancy in the wealthy parts of the city, high rents and a collapse in home ownership leading to severe financial insecurity and Conservative inclined suburbanites moving to greener pastures beyond the city limits. The theory that's often trotted out of the cities moving left because the wealthy upper middle class are becoming left wing is a myth. Look at the UK's poverty statistics for example, even the stereo-typically rich parts of London have high rates of poverty even though it is more 'hidden' than it is in other parts of the country.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 05, 2019, 07:42:42 pm
Actually I think that while it’s a long shot the NDP may have more of a chance in Humber Valley Black Creek than in some of the downtown ridings. It’s very poor, went NDP provincially, no name Liberal incumbent and a potential strong NDP candidate

Maria Augimeri?  Tiffany Ford?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on May 05, 2019, 09:16:11 pm
I don't pretend to be an expert on Toronto but I imagine the reason why your Conservatives struggle is down to similar factors i.e. the super rich buying up housing as investments leading to under-occupancy in the wealthy parts of the city, high rents and a collapse in home ownership leading to severe financial insecurity and Conservative inclined suburbanites moving to greener pastures beyond the city limits. The theory that's often trotted out of the cities moving left because the wealthy upper middle class are becoming left wing is a myth. Look at the UK's poverty statistics for example, even the stereo-typically rich parts of London have high rates of poverty even though it is more 'hidden' than it is in other parts of the country.

The "investment argument" may be true of Cityplace condos.  But it's definitely not true of Trinity-Bellwoods, the Annex, High Park et al--or if "wealthy upper middle classdom" plays out in their voting habits, it'd be on behalf of the Liberals or the John Tory mayoralty.

Given the special nature of the Cons vs the Libs in Canada, Conservative underperformance among said demo would be more akin (in nature, not in scale) to UKIP or Lepeniste underperformance in London or Paris.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on May 05, 2019, 10:07:56 pm
For all the talk of Toronto being the most socioeconomically "inverted" city in North America (ie rich core), there's a lot more "downscale inner city housing" so close to the CBD compared to say Manhattan or Chicago.  TC actually has the highest poverty rate of any riding in Toronto, though there are of course ridings that are more thoroughly low income working class that have lower average incomes (i.e. York South-Weston, Humber, Scarborough-Guildwood and so on).

University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York are for the most part affluent with a few pockets of poverty.

There is a map with the median household income by federal electora district on 338canada (same guy who does qc125)
http://338canada.com/map-income (http://338canada.com/map-income)

Toronto Centre is ranked 120 out of 121 Ontario ridings and 320 on 338 ridings in Canada.
In Toronto the other two lowest are York South Weston ranked 118 on 121 and Humber River Black Creek at 117.

The lowest median income in Ontario is Hamilton Centre, ranked 336 on 338 in Canada.
Windsor West is 119 of 121 in Ontario.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 05, 2019, 10:42:06 pm
NDP vote share in 2015 federal and 2018 provincial:

Beaches-East York  30.82% 48.21%
Davenport  41.36%  60.27%
Parkdale-High Park  40.24%  59.41%
Scarborough Southwest  23.73%  45.66%
Spadina-Fort York  27.28%  49.62%
Toronto Centre  26.61%  53.66%
Toronto-Danforth  40.17%  64.25%
University-Rosedale  28.59%  49.66%
York South-Weston  30.4%  36.07%


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on May 06, 2019, 12:03:54 am
Latest poll from Campaign Research says it’s Tories 35%, Liberals 31%, ndp 17% and Greens 10%...but with the Liberals well ahead in Quebec and marginally ahead in Ontario i think they would still get the largest number of seats

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TbCOi439siAc2Hxab6MISQf4ePvgeCSu/view


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on May 06, 2019, 06:50:28 am
NDP vote share in 2015 federal and 2018 provincial:

Beaches-East York  30.82% 48.21%
Davenport  41.36%  60.27%
Parkdale-High Park  40.24%  59.41%
Scarborough Southwest  23.73%  45.66%
Spadina-Fort York  27.28%  49.62%
Toronto Centre  26.61%  53.66%
Toronto-Danforth  40.17%  64.25%
University-Rosedale  28.59%  49.66%
York South-Weston  30.4%  36.07%

Interesting one we've already talked about:
Humber River-Black Creek - 10.74% - 37.41% (27.85% in 2011 federal)
- The NDP *can win here, but really depend on the CPC's also doing well. So with a strong candidate (Augimeri or T.Ford) could happen

The campaign research poll, some good notes for the NDP:
Toronto: LPC 36%, NDP 28% CPC 26% - very strong numbers, and most likely concentrated in about 10 riding's.

Trend lines:
Since February - The overall numbers show an increase from 14% -> 17%, LPC and CPC are both stagnant.
Jagmeet Singhs approval numbers - 16% in February, 24% now, Trudeau decrease, Scheer stagnant. Disapproval has decrease for JS from 39% to 29% (lowest disapproval rate of all three)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 06, 2019, 10:24:56 am
In the inner city ridings, looks like Liberal/NDP switchers represent about 20% of the electorate. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 07, 2019, 07:42:14 pm


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: SANDSLIDE 2020🌹 on May 13, 2019, 02:55:16 pm
This is an absolute masterpiece in banality:




Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: xelas81 on May 13, 2019, 03:07:06 pm
This is an absolute masterpiece in banality:


It sounds like it is suppose to attack Trudeau for being too moderate. It doesn't make much sense for Tories to attack Trudeau in this way, unless they realized that they pretty much maxed out their support, and only path to win a majority is to split the non-tory vote. But I don't think that is the case here though.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: StateBoiler on May 17, 2019, 06:43:00 am
Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on May 17, 2019, 10:32:38 am
Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

Not surprised to hear it. Windsor used to be a lot better for the Liberals, but it's turned against them hard recently.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 21, 2019, 07:26:26 am
JWR talks to Kinsella, saying she's remaining in federal politics and will announce her intentions soon. Will finish telling her story if the gag's lifted, presumably by a Scheer government. (http://warrenkinsella.com/2019/05/exclusive-in-the-sun-jwr-speaks/)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on May 21, 2019, 09:54:54 am
Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

I suspect NDP will easily hold the two Windsor ridings.  Essex will be interesting as that could flip to Tories since it includes a lot of exurbs and fairly rural, but also could stay NDP.  The worse the Liberals do probably the better chances of NDP holding this, while if Liberal vote holds up here then Tories have good chance of flipping it.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on May 21, 2019, 10:53:09 am
Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

I suspect NDP will easily hold the two Windsor ridings.  Essex will be interesting as that could flip to Tories since it includes a lot of exurbs and fairly rural, but also could stay NDP.  The worse the Liberals do probably the better chances of NDP holding this, while if Liberal vote holds up here then Tories have good chance of flipping it.

I don't see the LPC vote tanking the way it did on ON18, down to 9%, but it won't be the 20% they got in FED15, so between there. The NDP can and should win this, Ramsey is more well known and more experienced then in 2015, but the NDP vote at this point is not what is was in 2015

Some good, relatively, news for the NDP; Indie-CCF MP Erin Weir will not run again this election in Regina–Lewvan:
"...My candidacy under another banner this year would not help to maintain progressive representation for Regina in Ottawa. Because the federal leader continues to veto my candidacy for the NDP, I will not run in the upcoming federal election."
a little sigh of relief that the party wouldn't have to face an Indie Erin on the ballot, or worse, a Green Erin.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on May 21, 2019, 01:15:56 pm
Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

I suspect NDP will easily hold the two Windsor ridings.  Essex will be interesting as that could flip to Tories since it includes a lot of exurbs and fairly rural, but also could stay NDP.  The worse the Liberals do probably the better chances of NDP holding this, while if Liberal vote holds up here then Tories have good chance of flipping it.

I don't see the LPC vote tanking the way it did on ON18, down to 9%, but it won't be the 20% they got in FED15, so between there. The NDP can and should win this, Ramsey is more well known and more experienced then in 2015, but the NDP vote at this point is not what is was in 2015

Some good, relatively, news for the NDP; Indie-CCF MP Erin Weir will not run again this election in Regina–Lewvan:
"...My candidacy under another banner this year would not help to maintain progressive representation for Regina in Ottawa. Because the federal leader continues to veto my candidacy for the NDP, I will not run in the upcoming federal election."
a little sigh of relief that the party wouldn't have to face an Indie Erin on the ballot, or worse, a Green Erin.

I suspect they'll have trouble holding it anyway, but at least there's a chance of them holding it now. Desnethe seems as if they still have some small chance, but I'm not sure how strong they'll be in Saskatoon West (wouldn't rule the NDP out though.) The Conservatives have a good chance in all three.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Jeppe on May 21, 2019, 02:06:42 pm
I don't think Desnethe is a particularly difficult hold for the NDP. The Conservatives are non-existent in First Nations communities in the riding, they only did really well in the white, rural parts of the riding, so they have a hard ceiling in terms of how well they can, as the riding itself is over 70% First Nations.

I don't particularly feel that Trudeau is well-liked among the First Nation communities as he might've once been, so unless turnout dips to 50% like it did in 2011, the Conservatives don't stand much of a fighting chance in a riding that is so demographically tilted against them.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on May 21, 2019, 06:28:17 pm
I don't think Desnethe is a particularly difficult hold for the NDP. The Conservatives are non-existent in First Nations communities in the riding, they only did really well in the white, rural parts of the riding, so they have a hard ceiling in terms of how well they can, as the riding itself is over 70% First Nations.

I don't particularly feel that Trudeau is well-liked among the First Nation communities as he might've once been, so unless turnout dips to 50% like it did in 2011, the Conservatives don't stand much of a fighting chance in a riding that is so demographically tilted against them.

Depends on turnout in Desnethe-misinippi-Churchill River as while few aboriginals will vote Tory turnout is often much lower than whites so high turnout favours NDP low turnout favours Tories.  Also median age amongst aboriginals is much younger than whites so while still majority aboriginal its probably not 70% amongst eligible voter as much higher percentage of aboriginals under 18 than whites.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on May 22, 2019, 03:27:24 pm
I don't think Desnethe is a particularly difficult hold for the NDP. The Conservatives are non-existent in First Nations communities in the riding, they only did really well in the white, rural parts of the riding, so they have a hard ceiling in terms of how well they can, as the riding itself is over 70% First Nations.

I don't particularly feel that Trudeau is well-liked among the First Nation communities as he might've once been, so unless turnout dips to 50% like it did in 2011, the Conservatives don't stand much of a fighting chance in a riding that is so demographically tilted against them.

Depends on turnout in Desnethe-misinippi-Churchill River as while few aboriginals will vote Tory turnout is often much lower than whites so high turnout favours NDP low turnout favours Tories.  Also median age amongst aboriginals is much younger than whites so while still majority aboriginal its probably not 70% amongst eligible voter as much higher percentage of aboriginals under 18 than whites.

Natives in Canada have soaring birth rates, and are undergoing a baby boom right now. MB and SK are around 15-20% native, and that will get much higher in the future.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 22, 2019, 04:50:03 pm
Has there been any TV debates scheduled between the candidates for Canadian PM ?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on May 22, 2019, 06:06:31 pm
Has there been any TV debates scheduled between the candidates for Canadian PM ?

There will be but most likely in September, our campaigns are usually only five weeks.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on May 24, 2019, 11:06:22 am
Given the speculation on a future successor to Trudeau, it would be interesting to see which Cabinet Members will be defeated in October.

Highly likely to be defeated:
1. Karina Gould (Burlington)
2. Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton Mill Woods)
Strong chance of defeat:
3. Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha)
Possible chance of defeat:
4. Mary Ng (Markham-Thornhill)
5. Bernadette Jordan (South Shore-St. Margaret's)
6. Catherine McKenna (Ottawa Centre)
7. Filomena Tassi (Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas)
8. Ralph Goodale (Regina-Wascana)
9. Carla Qualtrough (Delta)
10. Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South)
11. Bardish Chagger (Waterloo)
12. Ahmed Hussen (York South-Weston)
Defeat unlikely:
13. Jean-Yves Duclos (Quebec)
14. Ginette Petitpas Taylor (Moncton Riverview-Dieppe)
15. University-Rosedale (University-Rosedale)
16. Patty Hajdu (Thunder Bay-Superior North)
17. Seamus O'Regan (St. John's South-Mount Pearl)
18. Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver)
19. Jim Carr (Winnipeg South Centre)
20. Marie-Claude Bibeau (Compton-Stanstead)
21. Diane Lebouthillier (Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine)
Defeat very unlikely:
22. David Lametti (LaSalle-Emard-Verdun)
23. Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre)
24. Joyce Murray (Vancouver-Quadra)
25. Francois-Philippe Champagne (St Maurice-Champlain)
26. Bill Blair (Scarborough-Southwest)
27. Melanie Joly (Ahuntsic-Cartierville)
28. Pablo Rodriguez (Honore-Mercier)
29. Carolyn Bennett (Toronto-St. Paul's)
30. Kirsty Duncan (Etobicoke North)
31. Navdeep Bains (Mississauga-Malton)
32. Laurence Macaulay (Cardigan)
33. Marc Garneau (Notre Dame de Grace)
34. Dominic Leblanc (Beausejour)

Clearly most of the cabinet will stay on, and either way, most of the losing ministers would be either junior ministers (like Gould and Ng) or unlikely leaders (Sohi and Qualtrough)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 24, 2019, 04:15:07 pm
Big question is whether Trudeau (if he survives this strong challenge) leaves office in 2023 after 2 terms as Canadian PM ?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LabourJersey on May 24, 2019, 05:24:19 pm
Big question is whether Trudeau (if he survives this strong challenge) leaves office in 2023 after 2 terms as Canadian PM ?

That's gonna depend a lot on the political context of that election and Trudeau's own popularity. I'd be really surprised if he makes it to early 2023, though.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 24, 2019, 05:59:01 pm
Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 24, 2019, 07:30:07 pm
Usually you keep running until you lose, decide to jump before being thrown, have serious health issues or worse. King is the only elected PM who left voluntarily and popular. Pearson left sorta voluntarily while unpopular. Since Freeland, the only contender who currently has mass appeal, is roughly Trudeau's age and extremely loyal, why not stay as long as he can?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on May 24, 2019, 08:07:35 pm
Usually you keep running until you lose, decide to jump before being thrown, have serious health issues or worse. King is the only elected PM who left voluntarily and popular. Pearson left sorta voluntarily while unpopular. Since Freeland, the only contender who currently has mass appeal, is roughly Trudeau's age and extremely loyal, why not stay as long as he can?

That assumes polls recover.  With how low they are now pretty sure they will be worse in 2023 thus I think Trudeau would have good reason to make next term his last.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on May 25, 2019, 05:55:14 am
Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

Or, is Jonathan Wilkinson really three tiers "safer" than Karina Gould?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on May 25, 2019, 07:40:10 am
Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

Or, is Jonathan Wilkinson really three tiers "safer" than Karina Gould?

Yes to both.

Morneau is an easy favourite in safe Liberal, downtown Toronto, where the NDP aren't putting up any fight and where the policies of the Liberal government are still quite popular. Hussen has a good chance but has not been a star MP outside of cabinet, is in a more working class riding, has strong CPC and NDP challengers, and could easily win.

Jonathan Wilkinson is the clear favourite in North Vancouver, I get that Andrew Saxton is running, and I suspect Wilkinson's margin will go down quite a bit but this is a pretty Liberal area of BC. Karina Gould is widely considered almost certain to lose out in Burlington and has been pretty low-profile. North Vancouver is also less receptive to the right-leaning populist social discussion than Burlington.

It largely depends on our definitions of safe and likely more than anything.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on May 25, 2019, 02:48:55 pm
Is Morneau really two tiers "safer" than Hussen?

Or, is Jonathan Wilkinson really three tiers "safer" than Karina Gould?

Yes to both.

Morneau is an easy favourite in safe Liberal, downtown Toronto, where the NDP aren't putting up any fight and where the policies of the Liberal government are still quite popular. Hussen has a good chance but has not been a star MP outside of cabinet, is in a more working class riding, has strong CPC and NDP challengers, and could easily win.

Jonathan Wilkinson is the clear favourite in North Vancouver, I get that Andrew Saxton is running, and I suspect Wilkinson's margin will go down quite a bit but this is a pretty Liberal area of BC. Karina Gould is widely considered almost certain to lose out in Burlington and has been pretty low-profile. North Vancouver is also less receptive to the right-leaning populist social discussion than Burlington.

It largely depends on our definitions of safe and likely more than anything.

Actually, FWIW, keep in mind that the ONDP won Toronto Centre last year with 54% and a 2:1 margin over the Libs.  It doesn't mean Morneau's absolutely *endangered*; but it also doesn't mean the NDP's incapable of "putting up any fight" (at least generically speaking; but if Jagmeet turns out to be an AudreyAlexa case, then...)

And as far as Burlington goes, *it's* not all that "right-leaning populist", either--in fact, the Tory-strength pattern there is more a continuation of Lakeshore-stockbroker-belt patterns from Oakville and Mississauga-Lakeshore; that is, the kind of "more PC than ReformAlliance" demo that found "Paul Martin Liberalism" to its liking.  And while the OLP did worse there (third place) than in Oakville and M-L last year, so did the Tories in victory--yes, a victory is a victory; but in a PC-majority election, 40.45% was actually quite a *low* share relative to riding history--and two points less than their losing federal figure in 2015.  IOW Burlingtonians weren't *completely* sold on Doug Ford; and it's the kind of riding in which a backlash to Ford could conceivably damage fed Con chances this time.  (Though a reason why Burlington may *appear* more right-populist than it is, is that it's home to the Crossroads/Yes media network--but that doesn't make it a Colorado Springs type of place; there's too much of a "Different Drummer Bookstore" countervailing Laurentian-elite element.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ishan on May 25, 2019, 03:45:06 pm
How did Singh become NDP leader in the first place.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 25, 2019, 05:38:30 pm
JWR and Philpott are almost certainly going Green, some Dipper candidates might join them.  (https://ricochet.media/en/2631/are-jody-wilson-raybould-and-jane-philpott-going-green)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: the506 on May 25, 2019, 08:18:15 pm
How did Singh become NDP leader in the first place.

They saw Trudeau won on shallow stylistics and wanted to do the same thing.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on May 25, 2019, 09:10:39 pm
JWR and Philpott are almost certainly going Green, some Dipper candidates might join them.  (https://ricochet.media/en/2631/are-jody-wilson-raybould-and-jane-philpott-going-green)

It could happen, but Ethan Cox is NOT a reliable source at all...There is zero chance of Jane Philpott winning in Markham-Stouffville unless she joined the Conservatives (not happening)>


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on May 26, 2019, 05:10:52 am
JWR and Philpott are almost certainly going Green, some Dipper candidates might join them.  (https://ricochet.media/en/2631/are-jody-wilson-raybould-and-jane-philpott-going-green)

It could happen, but Ethan Cox is NOT a reliable source at all...There is zero chance of Jane Philpott winning in Markham-Stouffville unless she joined the Conservatives (not happening)>

If Philpott runs as a Green, Independent, or a Dipper, then Markham-Stouffville is going blue. She may even come second, possible, but the Conservative vote is holding up there. JWR on the other hand could win as a Green in Granville, but she could similarly play spoiler (both seats went notionally blue in 2011, although it's fair to say M-S is a lot bluer.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 26, 2019, 07:05:49 pm
JWR and Philpott are not going Green. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilson-raybould-philpott-green-party-1.5150690?cmp=rss)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on May 26, 2019, 11:17:50 pm
JWR and Philpott are not going Green. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilson-raybould-philpott-green-party-1.5150690?cmp=rss)

This is crushing news for Elizabeth May. They may as well have whacked her with a sledgehammer


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on May 27, 2019, 02:11:01 am
JWR and Philpott are almost certainly going Green, some Dipper candidates might join them.  (https://ricochet.media/en/2631/are-jody-wilson-raybould-and-jane-philpott-going-green)

The article actually said 'former NDP candidates.'


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: trebor204 on May 27, 2019, 11:05:08 am
Wilson-Raybould to run as an Independent


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: the506 on May 27, 2019, 12:08:47 pm
Philpott too.

They both called Elizabeth May "an ally" in their speeches, my guess is the Greens have agreed not to run against either of them.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on May 27, 2019, 12:24:22 pm
Philpott too.

They both called Elizabeth May "an ally" in their speeches, my guess is the Greens have agreed not to run against either of them.

As if that will make any difference to Philpott.

In other, strange, but unsurprising (and probably insignificant) former CPC MP for Essex Jeff Watson has carpetbagged over to that party's safest seat in Canada (Battle River-Crowfoot). Granted, he does live in Alberta now, but it's a bad look.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on May 27, 2019, 12:36:08 pm
Wilson-Raybould to run as an Independent


Philpott too.

They both called Elizabeth May "an ally" in their speeches, my guess is the Greens have agreed not to run against either of them.

If the election results in a minority government (which is pretty much the expectation as of now), especially a very close one, then you can expect JWR & Philpott (if they win) to have a lot of power & influence.

JWR looks like she'll be able to draw votes from all parties, especially if she's the de-facto Green candidate in her riding, but it's still unclear if it'll be enough to win. IMO, it's going to be much tougher sledding for Philpott, though, in a riding that's already a very tight LPC-CPC race. Unless Philpott can pull some CPC voters over, I'd say her riding is, at the very least, Lean CPC as of now.

Also, say what you will about their politics, & regardless of whichever side of this whole shebang you may fall on, but you gotta admire how these two are committed to sticking together through thick & thin.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 27, 2019, 12:38:20 pm
JWR can win as an independent with disaffected Liberals, no Green candidate and a lot of NDP voters.

Stouffville is almost certainly going Tory though.  The Conservatives have a base of 40%, the NDP and Greens are nonfactors and any split in the Liberal vote means the Cons win.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 27, 2019, 12:43:05 pm
Interestingly two York Region MPs elected under the Liberal banner in 2015 are now running against the party - one as an independent (Jane Philpott) and Leona Alleslev (who crossed the floor to the Conservatives). 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on May 27, 2019, 12:44:44 pm
Interestingly two York Region MPs elected under the Liberal banner in 2015 are now running against the party - one as an independent (Jane Philpott) and Leona Alleslev (who crossed the floor to the Conservatives). 

On a good night for the Conservatives they sweep York.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 27, 2019, 12:50:29 pm
Relative to the GTA, York Region is trending Conservative.  That was clear in the most recent federal and provinical elections.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: UWS on May 27, 2019, 04:18:51 pm
I wonder how the start of the process of the ratification of the new NAFTA could influence Trudeau’s chances.

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/201905/27/01-5227733-aceum-le-gouvernement-trudeau-amorce-la-ratification.php


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on May 27, 2019, 05:26:50 pm
JWR can win as an independent with disaffected Liberals, no Green candidate and a lot of NDP voters.

Stouffville is almost certainly going Tory though.  The Conservatives have a base of 40%, the NDP and Greens are nonfactors and any split in the Liberal vote means the Cons win.

Actually, I can see that base as softer than it looks--thanks to Markham Village and maybe even certain elements of Old Stouffville, Markham-Stouffville has a certain "Red Tory" tendency that might well find Philpott more congenial as an indy than as a Liberal; I wouldn't be surprised if she's capable of assembling a "Bill Casey" kind of voting coalition.  (Even some of the newer subdivisions, like Cornell Village, have more of a "propriety" than most of York Region's ethnoburbia.)

On a tangent, Markham has voted "independent" in the relatively recent past: Markham mayor Tony Roman won in 1984 thanks to a backlash against far-right Tory incumbent John Gamble.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on May 31, 2019, 02:56:29 pm
NDP comes out for a "Green New Deal" type policy:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/05/31/ndp-set-to-unveil-15-billion-climate-plan-that-would-slash-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html?fbclid=IwAR27XbCuk-CvvsXOerxWQmciNWu5AwQlfM6Pz5MW6_94XHGm5hQjA9e43j8




Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 01, 2019, 03:02:05 am
NDP comes out for a "Green New Deal" type policy:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/05/31/ndp-set-to-unveil-15-billion-climate-plan-that-would-slash-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html?fbclid=IwAR27XbCuk-CvvsXOerxWQmciNWu5AwQlfM6Pz5MW6_94XHGm5hQjA9e43j8




All about stopping those Greens. Singh really seems to be focusing on BC and Quebec only, seemingly under the assumption they'll gain about 7-8 seats elsewhere and that they won't end up losing seats like Essex or Elmwood-Transcona which they gained last time. They should keep a few of those (South Okanagan-West Kootenay and North Island-Powell River seem the most likely) but it's a gamble, certainly.

I think there's certainly a view in the NDP that seats in Quebec such as Hochelaga and Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou are still in play for them, which is certainly optimistic. I would argue holding onto 4 seats in Quebec would be a good result for them, (the four seats being Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, Rimouski-Neigette, Berthier-Maskinonge and Sherbrooke, so not impossible. After that it gets a lot harder.) Although there's a general consensus that the Liberals may be saved by gains in Quebec (like Tory gains in Scotland,) it's actually far from clear . The myth that all Liberal seats in Quebec are somehow easy holds is rather ridiculous - if I were David Graham or Michel Picard I'd be worried. And many of their targets like Salaberry-Suroit, Hochelaga, and Beloeil-Chambly seem more likely to go Bloc at this point.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on June 02, 2019, 09:24:55 am
Good numbers for the NDP in Ontario, LOL at the Green numbers for MB/SK.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-conservatives-neck-and-neck-as-greens-rise-to-12


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on June 02, 2019, 01:08:35 pm
Good numbers for the NDP in Ontario, LOL at the Green numbers for MB/SK.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-conservatives-neck-and-neck-as-greens-rise-to-12

Though what I find counterintuitively interesting about those numbers is that the NDP-vs-Green margin actually *increases* (to 24-14, with the former number above CPC) among the 18-29's--which contradicts the conventional wisdom about the former being "yesterday's party", or the latter wildly overperforming among Millennials.

It'd seem from this poll that the increasing "validation" of the Green option reflects not so much a younger-demo boost as a relative flattening-out across all ages--which isn't surprising given how many of the party's present hot-spots seem to be of a retiree or aging-hippie nature, akin to the beards-and-sandals/Celtic-fringe base of the UK Liberals of the 1970s.  (And of course, there's the leadership matter: Singh's inherent appeal to "Metropolitan Millennials", vs May fitting the retiree/aging-hippie niche and too soft-focus for a Corbyn-Sanders sagely-elder command to boot).

Oh, and even if it's actually a technical tie, for the Libs to poll ahead shows how vulnerable the argument that SNC-Lavalin would take them terminally out of play was.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on June 02, 2019, 01:44:43 pm
I wonder how much the age flattening of the Green vote and younger pull of the NDP is due to the Greens being a very "white" party (millennials are much more diverse than Boomers+).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on June 03, 2019, 06:44:27 am
NDP comes out for a "Green New Deal" type policy:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/05/31/ndp-set-to-unveil-15-billion-climate-plan-that-would-slash-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html?fbclid=IwAR27XbCuk-CvvsXOerxWQmciNWu5AwQlfM6Pz5MW6_94XHGm5hQjA9e43j8




All about stopping those Greens. Singh really seems to be focusing on BC and Quebec only, seemingly under the assumption they'll gain about 7-8 seats elsewhere and that they won't end up losing seats like Essex or Elmwood-Transcona which they gained last time. They should keep a few of those (South Okanagan-West Kootenay and North Island-Powell River seem the most likely) but it's a gamble, certainly.

I think there's certainly a view in the NDP that seats in Quebec such as Hochelaga and Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou are still in play for them, which is certainly optimistic. I would argue holding onto 4 seats in Quebec would be a good result for them, (the four seats being Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, Rimouski-Neigette, Berthier-Maskinonge and Sherbrooke, so not impossible. After that it gets a lot harder.) Although there's a general consensus that the Liberals may be saved by gains in Quebec (like Tory gains in Scotland,) it's actually far from clear . The myth that all Liberal seats in Quebec are somehow easy holds is rather ridiculous - if I were David Graham or Michel Picard I'd be worried. And many of their targets like Salaberry-Suroit, Hochelaga, and Beloeil-Chambly seem more likely to go Bloc at this point.

I'd argue that this is a plan that is much more representative of the memberships direction. The loss of Nanaimo-Ladysmith I would argue was the catalyst for the party leadership to move the platform in the direction of where the membership is (also we have to accept the defeat was CLEARLY a response to the BCNDP rather then Singh's NDP). A response to the green surge? partly yes, but more a re-alignment to where the base is sitting right now, which has been in the works probably over the past year or two.

This policy is getting a very positive response from party supporters/members (many who I saw were wary towards Singh) so this is winning the base. This is also getting good response from Unions and organized labour, as well as strong support from environmentalist. Again typically NDP "considering" groups.
To your point, I think there is a focus on Ontario here too as well as an urban one. Now this policy will not help in Alberta (outside Edmonton and even then), and to some extent Saskatchewan; BUT there is a populist tilt here too so in these provinces, and more rural areas see those aspects being focused (saves you money, creates jobs, etc)

BUT what this does do, is sets the tone for the entire climate/environment debate, taking some wind out of the sails of the Greens partly and the Liberals (who were kind of weak in this area anyway). The NDP is now the only party to not support Oil&Gas and pipeline expansion (Greens support internal gas use and pipelines) federally.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 07, 2019, 05:17:06 am
Anyone know of any MPs likely to stand down? Scott Simms seems possible as he doesn't seem to have announced; neither has Anju Dhillon. In Dufferin-Caledon where David Tilson isn't reoffering, there's a nomination issue with the Conservatives.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 07, 2019, 10:06:26 am
What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on June 07, 2019, 12:08:30 pm
What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?


If you mean remains PM, I would say quite high, if you mean greatest number of seats, not so great, but polls suggest things are levelling off and Liberals rebounding in Ontario, but not so much elsewhere.  Lets remember Greens and NDP are far closer to Liberals than Tories so as long as those three combined get 170 seats, he will remain PM even if Tories win a plurality of seats.  For Tories they have to get a majority for Scheer to become PM or at least Tories + PPC (who are unlikely to win any seats) get a majority.  I think if Doug Ford wasn't messing up so badly in Ontario, Tories would have a decent shot at a majority, but Doug Ford is really hurting the Tories in Ontario and being the largest province that is a bit of a problem.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on June 07, 2019, 05:11:08 pm
Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on June 07, 2019, 05:24:33 pm
What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?


If you mean remains PM, I would say quite high, if you mean greatest number of seats, not so great, but polls suggest things are levelling off and Liberals rebounding in Ontario, but not so much elsewhere.  Lets remember Greens and NDP are far closer to Liberals than Tories so as long as those three combined get 170 seats, he will remain PM even if Tories win a plurality of seats.  For Tories they have to get a majority for Scheer to become PM or at least Tories + PPC (who are unlikely to win any seats) get a majority.  I think if Doug Ford wasn't messing up so badly in Ontario, Tories would have a decent shot at a majority, but Doug Ford is really hurting the Tories in Ontario and being the largest province that is a bit of a problem.

Would Bernier lose his own seat? I don't know about that, he is a institution in the Beauce and they love him.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on June 07, 2019, 11:18:58 pm
What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?


If you mean remains PM, I would say quite high, if you mean greatest number of seats, not so great, but polls suggest things are levelling off and Liberals rebounding in Ontario, but not so much elsewhere.  Lets remember Greens and NDP are far closer to Liberals than Tories so as long as those three combined get 170 seats, he will remain PM even if Tories win a plurality of seats.  For Tories they have to get a majority for Scheer to become PM or at least Tories + PPC (who are unlikely to win any seats) get a majority.  I think if Doug Ford wasn't messing up so badly in Ontario, Tories would have a decent shot at a majority, but Doug Ford is really hurting the Tories in Ontario and being the largest province that is a bit of a problem.

Would Bernier lose his own seat? I don't know about that, he is a institution in the Beauce and they love him.

I think he will, up until his run for Tory leadership race never said much on supply management, but his opposition to supply management will probably hurt him in the riding as his riding has more dairy farmers than any other riding in the country.  He could win, also could split the vote to allow Liberals to come up the middle, but most likely is Tories regain it.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 08, 2019, 10:34:42 am
Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection)

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 08, 2019, 03:17:03 pm
Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection)

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I wonder if she waited out the NDP decision on whether Erin Weir could run under their banner again or not.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: VPH on June 08, 2019, 07:31:34 pm
Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection)

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 08, 2019, 07:34:48 pm
Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection)

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Intell on June 08, 2019, 10:22:38 pm
Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection)

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

Canada and Australia would disagree but sure.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on June 08, 2019, 10:25:03 pm
Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection)

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

"Minorities" in what sense?  First Nations?

If anything, thanks to Ford/Kenney et al, Canada's been a place where minorities (not FN, but definitely ethnoburbia) have been trending *to* conservatives.  And when it comes to "rural extractive areas", Northern Ontario's probably more analogous to, say, northern Sweden than West Virginia...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on June 09, 2019, 03:32:58 pm
Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection)

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

"Minorities" in what sense?  First Nations?

If anything, thanks to Ford/Kenney et al, Canada's been a place where minorities (not FN, but definitely ethnoburbia) have been trending *to* conservatives.  And when it comes to "rural extractive areas", Northern Ontario's probably more analogous to, say, northern Sweden than West Virginia...

What we are seeing in Canada is that minorities as a whole (non-white european, non-indigenous/first nations) are swing voters. This is visible in areas like the Vancouver suburbs and Toronto's 905. They gave Harper is majority eventually in 2011, and Trudeau his in 2015.
I don't believe "minorities" are a solid voting block either really, I would say Urban minorities and suburban minorities vote somewhat differently too.
someone who is more knowledgeable on this could comment but I believe in BC the East Asian community (Chinese, Japanese, etc) were far more BC Liberal (right-wing) while the South Asian community (sikh's, Indian's, etc) were more NDP leaning.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 09, 2019, 03:35:27 pm
In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on June 09, 2019, 05:36:41 pm
In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 09, 2019, 05:45:29 pm
In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on June 09, 2019, 06:31:13 pm
In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 10, 2019, 06:26:41 am
In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?

Definitely agree with you DL.

The law in Canada says that if you are nominated as a federal candidate, you are disqualified from your provincial seat. So Zann, Eddie Orrell, Chris d'Entremont, Alfie Macleod, Warren Steinley and Marie-France Lalonde (that's all as far as I'm aware) will all be affected; considering only Lalonde and Steinley are definite favourites it's a risky move.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 10, 2019, 08:21:43 am
In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 10, 2019, 10:31:58 am
In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Makes sense - NDP gained Halifax Chebucto and one of the two Dartmouth seats (forget which), whilst losing Chester-St Margaret's and Queens-Shelburne last time and failing to retake Sydney-Whitney Pier.

Is this the only major caucus in Canada with just one man, the rest being women?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on June 10, 2019, 01:02:22 pm

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 10, 2019, 01:46:21 pm

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on June 10, 2019, 02:53:24 pm

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 10, 2019, 03:20:13 pm


I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

We can always ask Glenn Thibeault how his current long-term political career is going. Needless to say this could be a lot shorter. Agreed, disappointing.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on June 10, 2019, 03:57:32 pm
What we are seeing in Canada is that minorities as a whole (non-white european, non-indigenous/first nations) are swing voters. This is visible in areas like the Vancouver suburbs and Toronto's 905. They gave Harper is majority eventually in 2011, and Trudeau his in 2015.
I don't believe "minorities" are a solid voting block either really, I would say Urban minorities and suburban minorities vote somewhat differently too.
someone who is more knowledgeable on this could comment but I believe in BC the East Asian community (Chinese, Japanese, etc) were far more BC Liberal (right-wing) while the South Asian community (sikh's, Indian's, etc) were more NDP leaning.

There's definitely been a big shift to the Conservatives among Chinese Canadians.  South Asians are less likely to vote Conservative than the general population.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 11, 2019, 04:28:20 am

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

This. Rural Maritime politics are still very candidate based.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 12, 2019, 02:27:28 pm

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

This. Rural Maritime politics are still very candidate based.

Andrew Younger (although he was Dartmouth rather than a rural seat) seems to be the most striking example from NS, gaining a seat from the NDP in 2009, other than Bill Casey of course.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: toaster on June 12, 2019, 09:36:16 pm
Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection)

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

"Minorities" in what sense?  First Nations?

If anything, thanks to Ford/Kenney et al, Canada's been a place where minorities (not FN, but definitely ethnoburbia) have been trending *to* conservatives.  And when it comes to "rural extractive areas", Northern Ontario's probably more analogous to, say, northern Sweden than West Virginia...

Not sure if Francophones was implied in minorities, also much of the non-French white population in Northern Ontario is "white ethnic" as opposed to WASP.

I think Northern Ontario is much more like rural Quebec - labour left, socialist/subsidize "us" left..  but not so much progressive left.  I think the remaining NDP MPs in the North (including Angus) will lose to Liberals, as much as I hate to say it, due to the NDP leader.  Kind of a "xenophobic left", you might call it.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 13, 2019, 10:40:07 am

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

This. Rural Maritime politics are still very candidate based.

Andrew Younger (although he was Dartmouth rather than a rural seat) seems to be the most striking example from NS, gaining a seat from the NDP in 2009, other than Bill Casey of course.

Yeah exactly.

I find when predicting Atlantic elections, it's far better to make picks based on the candidates amd then adjust for the polls, rather than the other way around.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on June 13, 2019, 05:35:19 pm

Not sure if Francophones was implied in minorities, also much of the non-French white population in Northern Ontario is "white ethnic" as opposed to WASP.

I think Northern Ontario is much more like rural Quebec - labour left, socialist/subsidize "us" left..  but not so much progressive left.  I think the remaining NDP MPs in the North (including Angus) will lose to Liberals, as much as I hate to say it, due to the NDP leader.  Kind of a "xenophobic left", you might call it.
I've a measured skepticism about such inevitability, in part because (esp. if we're talking about Ontario rather than Quebec) the "xenophobic left" isn't necessary all that "left"--those for whom Jagmeet's race is an issue isn't necessarily the element that'd uniformly default/defect to the Justin Libs.  And a lot of the Charlie Angus base is the sort that might otherwise be in fact Con-leaning, and has been in the past...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 14, 2019, 01:59:12 am


Didn't see this coming. Not sure Kevin Flynn did either.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Jeppe on June 16, 2019, 08:21:53 am
This happened like 2 weeks but the Toronto-Danforth NDP nominated a candidate. Probably their best shot in Toronto to win back a seat from the Liberals, along with Davenport where Andrew Cash is running to retake his seat.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 16, 2019, 10:51:26 am
This happened like 2 weeks but the Toronto-Danforth NDP nominated a candidate. Probably their best shot in Toronto to win back a seat from the Liberals, along with Davenport where Andrew Cash is running to retake his seat.



Both are star candidates. The GTA is attracting a lot of the best CPC and NDP candidates.




Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on June 17, 2019, 08:51:34 am
Over the weekend, at the Ontario NDP convention, Jagmeet Singh released, basically, the platform for 2019 election:
https://www.ndp.ca/courage?fbclid=IwAR2owrUOeBCxRh1E5e3E5WmzEMmfinmrLPjOsD2a14rNVpkU_P0lJ8lKC50

The Star did a pretty decent summary:
https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/federal/2019/06/16/ndp-election-platform-promises-head-to-toe-health-care.html?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3xRcFLl-YKu7CWMu7wWLOheYOrZU3mbeB3Vv7FvvOB33GkesV1yFmsg-Y

Summary:
- "goal of making post-secondary education tuition-free" remove the interest from student loans and shift to non-repayable grants.
- cap cellphone bills, Telecom Consumers’ Bill of Rights
- $1 billion per year to support provincial child care programs.
- basic income pilot project,
- drug decriminalization
- change employment insurance so people can qualify after working fewer hours; introduce new payouts so no recipients have to live on less than $1,200 per month.
- Postal Banking, restore door-to-door service
- $5 billion into the federal government’s national housing programs within two years, to build 500,000 new affordable units within a decade.
- In its first four years in power, spend $15 billion to fight climate change by building more public transit, subsidizing zero-emission vehicles that are built in Canada, and funding green programs and infrastructure through a new $3-billion “climate bank.
- a push to retrofit all buildings so they are energy-efficient by 2050 — would create at least 300,00 new jobs.
- Universal pharmacare by the end of 2020, with an initial federal price tag of $10 billion per year.
- will work over the next decade to extend Canada’s health care system into dental, vision and hearing care, mental health services, long term home care and addictions treatment.
- create a new, 1-per-cent tax on people whose net worth is more than $20 million — a 1 per cent tax on the 1 per cent. This would apply to net worth over that amount, so someone worth $25 million would get a 1 per cent tax on their excess $5 million.
- hike the federal corporate income tax from 15 per cent to 18 per cent, increase the top federal income tax bracket, for people earning more than $210,000 per year, from 33 to 35 per cent.
- increasing how much capital gains income is subject to tax ($3Bin revenues), and another $1 billion annually by closing tax loopholes like stock option compensation for corporate executives.
- cancelling tax breaks for the oil and gas industry that are estimated to be worth more than $3 billion per year, redirect into programs listed here
- Introducing a form of Mixed Member Proportional

There's more but I haven't read the whole thing yet! it's like 100 pages!


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: King of Kensington on June 17, 2019, 03:24:40 pm
I know it's not exactly "on topic" but still posting

https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2019/06/17/premier-doug-ford-booed-by-crowd-at-raptors-victory-parade/


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on June 17, 2019, 07:43:04 pm
Two Liberal MPs not running. Geng Tan of Don Valley North and Frank Baylis of Pierrefonds-Dollard.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on June 18, 2019, 06:18:19 am
Two Liberal MPs not running. Geng Tan of Don Valley North and Frank Baylis of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

Don Valley North will be "interesting" the conservative candidate is the woman who tried to drink water out of a full sized cardboard box. social media fail.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 18, 2019, 07:03:17 am
Two Liberal MPs not running. Geng Tan of Don Valley North and Frank Baylis of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

Surprising - CPC is targeting neighbouring Willowdale, Markham-Thornhill and Scarboro Agincourt which are all similarly vulnerable, so add that to the mix. Pierrefonds-Dollard is however safe for the Liberals. I'm guessing that with the background of Tan, he would've wanted a higher position as an incentive to stay in politics.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 18, 2019, 08:58:27 am
Over the weekend, at the Ontario NDP convention, Jagmeet Singh released, basically, the platform for 2019 election:
https://www.ndp.ca/courage?fbclid=IwAR2owrUOeBCxRh1E5e3E5WmzEMmfinmrLPjOsD2a14rNVpkU_P0lJ8lKC50

The Star did a pretty decent summary:
https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/federal/2019/06/16/ndp-election-platform-promises-head-to-toe-health-care.html?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3xRcFLl-YKu7CWMu7wWLOheYOrZU3mbeB3Vv7FvvOB33GkesV1yFmsg-Y

Summary:
- "goal of making post-secondary education tuition-free" remove the interest from student loans and shift to non-repayable grants.
- cap cellphone bills, Telecom Consumers’ Bill of Rights
- $1 billion per year to support provincial child care programs.
- basic income pilot project,
- drug decriminalization
- change employment insurance so people can qualify after working fewer hours; introduce new payouts so no recipients have to live on less than $1,200 per month.
- Postal Banking, restore door-to-door service
- $5 billion into the federal government’s national housing programs within two years, to build 500,000 new affordable units within a decade.
- In its first four years in power, spend $15 billion to fight climate change by building more public transit, subsidizing zero-emission vehicles that are built in Canada, and funding green programs and infrastructure through a new $3-billion “climate bank.
- a push to retrofit all buildings so they are energy-efficient by 2050 — would create at least 300,00 new jobs.
- Universal pharmacare by the end of 2020, with an initial federal price tag of $10 billion per year.
- will work over the next decade to extend Canada’s health care system into dental, vision and hearing care, mental health services, long term home care and addictions treatment.
- create a new, 1-per-cent tax on people whose net worth is more than $20 million — a 1 per cent tax on the 1 per cent. This would apply to net worth over that amount, so someone worth $25 million would get a 1 per cent tax on their excess $5 million.
- hike the federal corporate income tax from 15 per cent to 18 per cent, increase the top federal income tax bracket, for people earning more than $210,000 per year, from 33 to 35 per cent.
- increasing how much capital gains income is subject to tax ($3Bin revenues), and another $1 billion annually by closing tax loopholes like stock option compensation for corporate executives.
- cancelling tax breaks for the oil and gas industry that are estimated to be worth more than $3 billion per year, redirect into programs listed here
- Introducing a form of Mixed Member Proportional

There's more but I haven't read the whole thing yet! it's like 100 pages!

Probably a smart move for the NDP. They desperately need to make some noise and stand out from the progressive crowd. I wonder how this will affect the Liberal platform.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 18, 2019, 09:49:03 am
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=89981

He's a projection of mine - based on what I've posted on EPP, but without tossups.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on June 18, 2019, 12:16:22 pm
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=89981

He's a projection of mine - based on what I've posted on EPP, but without tossups.

Assuming that projection was right, what would be the outcome? A very unstable Conservative government propped up by BQ? Or some sort of "Coalition of chaos" propping up Trudeau?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: VPH on June 18, 2019, 12:44:10 pm
Comprehensive pharmacare by 2020 is ambitious to say the least


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 18, 2019, 12:46:02 pm
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=89981

He's a projection of mine - based on what I've posted on EPP, but without tossups.

Assuming that projection was right, what would be the outcome? A very unstable Conservative government propped up by BQ? Or some sort of "Coalition of chaos" propping up Trudeau?

Hard to tell as successful deals tend not to be the norm, and as the BQ would be the Kingmakers - (Lib+NDP+Green is only 164.) Deals between parties are also a more recent thing in Canada anyway as the high NDP+Green+BQ total owes itself to recent trends. In my opinion, the most likely outcome is that whatever government is formed would be largely short term. Andrew Scheer could do a Joe Clark and govern as an unstable minority, but unlike Joe Clark, who was no confidenced once his budget turned out not to be palatable as he still stuck to his platform, Scheer would have to make a lot more concessions. There is the option that neither the NDP or BQ support either party, leaving a minority situation for the Conservatives by default, as happened in 2006. As we saw in 2008, any coalition/c&s on the left would be a coalition of chaos. Unlike the current agreements in NB and BC, the smaller parties are considerably larger and hold more leverage.

It reminds me of the forecasts for the 2015 Election over here (I live in the UK rather than Canada currently) - the opposition leading the government with the third party leading and the two small ones gaining, but that turned out differently. Oof the 21 seats I have as 'Tilt Conservative' only Jonquiere could go to the Bloc, and the rest would go to a progressive party, so if the Conservatives got much less than this, they could struggle.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on June 18, 2019, 03:55:12 pm
Trans Canada pipeline has been approved:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269?fbclid=IwAR1a35cg-2WVKCH1eVltWkj9PVsMvFfjDBN1iNIhc1fl-7hcWCK_jUTcbjg

Expect a bump for the NDP and Greens (even though they support pipelines in general, but not this one). May see some soft centre-centre-right support move back from CPC to the LPC to compensate on the loss they will have in votes to the NDP and Greens. Expect some loss in support in Quebec too.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 19, 2019, 01:19:47 am
Trans Canada pipeline has been approved:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269?fbclid=IwAR1a35cg-2WVKCH1eVltWkj9PVsMvFfjDBN1iNIhc1fl-7hcWCK_jUTcbjg

Expect a bump for the NDP and Greens (even though they support pipelines in general, but not this one). May see some soft centre-centre-right support move back from CPC to the LPC to compensate on the loss they will have in votes to the NDP and Greens. Expect some loss in support in Quebec too.

Pretty bad electorally - doubt that the small centre right party will be significant, and probably wouldn't keep them any Alberta seats still, but they may have just given Svend Robinson his seat in Parliament.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on June 19, 2019, 06:37:05 am
Trans Canada pipeline has been approved:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269?fbclid=IwAR1a35cg-2WVKCH1eVltWkj9PVsMvFfjDBN1iNIhc1fl-7hcWCK_jUTcbjg

Expect a bump for the NDP and Greens (even though they support pipelines in general, but not this one). May see some soft centre-centre-right support move back from CPC to the LPC to compensate on the loss they will have in votes to the NDP and Greens. Expect some loss in support in Quebec too.

Pretty bad electorally - doubt that the small centre right party will be significant, and probably wouldn't keep them any Alberta seats still, but they may have just given Svend Robinson his seat in Parliament.

Agreed, I'm thinking more of a bump in say Ontario, or a stabilization and perhaps a small bit in Alberta; Edmonton Centre and maybe Calgary Centre might feel a little more comfortable, the more "progressive" parts of the big cities (minus Edmonton-Strathcona which i'd normally say is a good call for the NDP, but I honestly can't tell). Might also have made Goodale breath a little easier in Regina-Wascana.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on June 19, 2019, 04:52:12 pm
Steven Guilbeault will finally announce he is seeking the Liberal nomination in Laurier-Sainte-Marie. He defended the environment record of the government claining it's the government who has done the most for environment. He was against Trans Mountain. It will be interesting to see if voters who have the environment as a priority will follow the environment star.

The Green party is running Jamil Azzaoui, seems to be a singer.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1182432/jamil-candidat-parti-vert-elections-federales-laurier-sainte-marie-montreal (https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1182432/jamil-candidat-parti-vert-elections-federales-laurier-sainte-marie-montreal)
Maybe they should have run the Green co-leader to face Guilbeault since it was expected he would run there. The Bloc will run an author who was the candidate in the Outremont by-election. Could indicate they don't think they can win, could not run someone with a higher public profile ?
A riding with young people so the more they split between NDP and Greens, it's easier for Libs to win and Guilbeault has the personal environment brand.   


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on June 19, 2019, 05:26:19 pm
The Liberals will not be represented by an Italian in Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel. Form imam Hassan Guillet is the candidate.

Former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will probably run for the Liberal party. Trudeau met him last winter to recruit him. His issue is homecare. He said it's the progressive party who has a chance to win. For the riding, Sherbrooke or somewhere in greater Montreal were mentioned.   


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 20, 2019, 03:06:41 am
Steven Guilbeault will finally announce he is seeking the Liberal nomination in Laurier-Sainte-Marie. He defended the environment record of the government claining it's the government who has done the most for environment. He was against Trans Mountain. It will be interesting to see if voters who have the environment as a priority will follow the environment star.

The Green party is running Jamil Azzaoui, seems to be a singer.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1182432/jamil-candidat-parti-vert-elections-federales-laurier-sainte-marie-montreal (https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1182432/jamil-candidat-parti-vert-elections-federales-laurier-sainte-marie-montreal)
Maybe they should have run the Green co-leader to face Guilbeault since it was expected he would run there. The Bloc will run an author who was the candidate in the Outremont by-election. Could indicate they don't think they can win, could not run someone with a higher public profile ?
A riding with young people so the more they split between NDP and Greens, it's easier for Libs to win and Guilbeault has the personal environment brand.   

From what I've heard, the Bloc think they have a far better chance in Hochelaga, their candidate there, Simon Marchand, fought the seat last time and has been working hard for a while. Neither are definitive.

The Liberals will not be represented by an Italian in Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel. Form imam Hassan Guillet is the candidate.

Former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will probably run for the Liberal party. Trudeau met him last winter to recruit him. His issue is homecare. He said it's the progressive party who has a chance to win. For the riding, Sherbrooke or somewhere in greater Montreal were mentioned.   

The two best options seem to be Sherbrooke and Pierrefonds-Dollard, but neither are perfect for him.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 20, 2019, 08:01:55 pm
The NDP have dropped their candidate in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour over anti-Semitic comments.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 21, 2019, 02:43:41 pm
Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5184851&ved=2ahUKEwikieHNqvviAhXymeAKHdbWDakQiJQBMAN6BAgHEAM&usg=AOvVaw2CAT2s0f2_fpq0UZX6y0MI&ampcf=1)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 21, 2019, 02:46:50 pm
Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5184851&ved=2ahUKEwikieHNqvviAhXymeAKHdbWDakQiJQBMAN6BAgHEAM&usg=AOvVaw2CAT2s0f2_fpq0UZX6y0MI&ampcf=1)

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on June 21, 2019, 03:01:04 pm
Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5184851&ved=2ahUKEwikieHNqvviAhXymeAKHdbWDakQiJQBMAN6BAgHEAM&usg=AOvVaw2CAT2s0f2_fpq0UZX6y0MI&ampcf=1)

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 21, 2019, 03:07:38 pm
Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5184851&ved=2ahUKEwikieHNqvviAhXymeAKHdbWDakQiJQBMAN6BAgHEAM&usg=AOvVaw2CAT2s0f2_fpq0UZX6y0MI&ampcf=1)

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LabourJersey on June 21, 2019, 05:48:14 pm
You guys are talking about the Fords like they're the Corleones of Toronto


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on June 21, 2019, 08:07:43 pm
Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5184851&ved=2ahUKEwikieHNqvviAhXymeAKHdbWDakQiJQBMAN6BAgHEAM&usg=AOvVaw2CAT2s0f2_fpq0UZX6y0MI&ampcf=1)

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

And also, she's "not blood".

Though I can definitely see a lot of the social-media core of Ford Nation banging the drum for PPC in general, Renata or no Renata--and for all I know, they motivated her to run..


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: LabourJersey on June 23, 2019, 05:02:57 pm
Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5184851&ved=2ahUKEwikieHNqvviAhXymeAKHdbWDakQiJQBMAN6BAgHEAM&usg=AOvVaw2CAT2s0f2_fpq0UZX6y0MI&ampcf=1)

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

And also, she's "not blood".

Though I can definitely see a lot of the social-media core of Ford Nation banging the drum for PPC in general, Renata or no Renata--and for all I know, they motivated her to run..

I'm guessing all this Ford family drama is not helping the Tories in Ontario-- would I be right?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on June 23, 2019, 09:02:58 pm
Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5184851&ved=2ahUKEwikieHNqvviAhXymeAKHdbWDakQiJQBMAN6BAgHEAM&usg=AOvVaw2CAT2s0f2_fpq0UZX6y0MI&ampcf=1)

Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug

Forgot about that, thanks.

And also, she's "not blood".

Though I can definitely see a lot of the social-media core of Ford Nation banging the drum for PPC in general, Renata or no Renata--and for all I know, they motivated her to run..

I'm guessing all this Ford family drama is not helping the Tories in Ontario-- would I be right?

At this point, nothing related to Ford (familial or otherwise) helps the Tories in Ontario.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on June 24, 2019, 07:37:33 am
In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 24, 2019, 02:42:18 pm
In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 24, 2019, 03:12:18 pm
In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 24, 2019, 03:21:27 pm
In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 24, 2019, 07:29:08 pm
The provincial breakdowns on the latest Nanos on the Numbers aren't out yet. Of course all the numbers are within the margin of error, but the Liberals are now back into essentially a tie: 32.5% to 32.8% for the Conservatives.  This is +2.2% for the Liberals and -1.2% for the Conservatives from last week.

Of course there are a number of possibilities, the unpopularity of the Doug Ford Conservatives, the SNC Scandal being further in the rear view mirror...  but, I like to think the main reason is the reaction to AGW.

For much of the first decade of the 21st century belief in whether AGW was real or not depended on the time of year: during the summer more people 'believed', and during the winter months less people believed.  

I suspect this will be the same thing with the carbon tax.  The only recent poll on this had 40% in favor of the carbon tax and 47% opposed.  As we get in to the summer months, I think people will recognize more and more that they are paying for global warming whether they pay a carbon tax or not and this will result in support for the carbon tax to increase.  Then this support will decline again as we move further away from summer.

So, where all this is leading to, is I'd suggest the Liberals move the election date up a couple weeks from October 21st so that memories of the very likely long, hot summer are fresher.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: xelas81 on June 24, 2019, 09:49:52 pm
The provincial breakdowns on the latest Nanos on the Numbers aren't out yet. Of course all the numbers are within the margin of error, but the Liberals are now back into essentially a tie: 32.5% to 32.8% for the Conservatives.  This is +2.2% for the Liberals and -1.2% for the Conservatives from last week.

Of course there are a number of possibilities, the unpopularity of the Doug Ford Conservatives, the SNC Scandal being further in the rear view mirror...  but, I like to think the main reason is the reaction to AGW.

For much of the first decade of the 21st century belief in whether AGW was real or not depended on the time of year: during the summer more people 'believed', and during the winter months less people believed.  

I suspect this will be the same thing with the carbon tax.  The only recent poll on this had 40% in favor of the carbon tax and 47% opposed.  As we get in to the summer months, I think people will recognize more and more that they are paying for global warming whether they pay a carbon tax or not and this will result in support for the carbon tax to increase.  Then this support will decline again as we move further away from summer.

So, where all this is leading to, is I'd suggest the Liberals move the election date up a couple weeks from October 21st so that memories of the very likely long, hot summer are fresher.

Not sure if increased emphasis on environment/global warning would help Liberals. IMO it seems more likely Liberals would bleed more support to the NDP/Greens than gain voters from Tories. Especially considering that most Tories don't believe in AGW.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: trebor204 on June 24, 2019, 11:19:33 pm
Polling Data for the Federal Election in Manitoba

MB (2015 Results in Brackets)
Consv.  43% (35%)
Liberal 24% (45%)
NDP 17% (14%)
Green 13% (3%)

Winnipeg
Consv: 35% (29%)
Liberal 29% (53%)
NDP 20% (14%)
Green 13% (3%)


Outside Winnipeg
Consv 56% (48%)
Liberal 15% (33%)
NDP 11% (13%)
Greens 13% (4%)




https://media.winnipegfreepress.com/documents/190621June+2019MBOmniFedPartyStandings.pdf


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 25, 2019, 01:09:31 am
The provincial breakdowns on the latest Nanos on the Numbers aren't out yet. Of course all the numbers are within the margin of error, but the Liberals are now back into essentially a tie: 32.5% to 32.8% for the Conservatives.  This is +2.2% for the Liberals and -1.2% for the Conservatives from last week.

Of course there are a number of possibilities, the unpopularity of the Doug Ford Conservatives, the SNC Scandal being further in the rear view mirror...  but, I like to think the main reason is the reaction to AGW.

For much of the first decade of the 21st century belief in whether AGW was real or not depended on the time of year: during the summer more people 'believed', and during the winter months less people believed.  

I suspect this will be the same thing with the carbon tax.  The only recent poll on this had 40% in favor of the carbon tax and 47% opposed.  As we get in to the summer months, I think people will recognize more and more that they are paying for global warming whether they pay a carbon tax or not and this will result in support for the carbon tax to increase.  Then this support will decline again as we move further away from summer.

So, where all this is leading to, is I'd suggest the Liberals move the election date up a couple weeks from October 21st so that memories of the very likely long, hot summer are fresher.

Not sure if increased emphasis on environment/global warning would help Liberals. IMO it seems more likely Liberals would bleed more support to the NDP/Greens than gain voters from Tories. Especially considering that most Tories don't believe in AGW.

Not quite

https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/11/30/poll-canadians-climate-change/

35% of Conservatives know the AGW theory is real.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on June 25, 2019, 06:29:36 am
Nanos June 21st:

CPC - 32.82%  -1.18%
LPC - 32.53%  +2.21%
NDP - 16.90%  +0.14
GRN - 10.18%  -1.19%

vs May 17th:
                         Current Trend
CPC - 35.89%    -> -3.07%
LPC - 30.64%    -> +1.89%
NDP - 14.19%   -> +2.71%
GRN - 11.14%   -> -0.96%

Trend - Generally decrease for the CPC and the Greens, increase for the LPC and the NDP; The Liberals seem to be gaining back support mostly from the Greens, some of that is going to the NDP as well. I'd also suspect some small move from CPC -> LPC due to TMX


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on June 25, 2019, 09:27:23 am
Polling Data for the Federal Election in Manitoba

MB (2015 Results in Brackets)
Consv.  43% (35%)
Liberal 24% (45%)
NDP 17% (14%)
Green 13% (3%)

Winnipeg
Consv: 35% (29%)
Liberal 29% (53%)
NDP 20% (14%)
Green 13% (3%)


Outside Winnipeg
Consv 56% (48%)
Liberal 15% (33%)
NDP 11% (13%)
Greens 13% (4%)




https://media.winnipegfreepress.com/documents/190621June+2019MBOmniFedPartyStandings.pdf

The numbers in Winnipeg are pretty devastating for the Liberals. By my estimate they would lose Charleswood-St. James and Kildonan-St. Paul to the Tories for sure, likely lose Winnipeg South to the Tories as well and likely lose Winnipeg Centre to the NDP. Winnipeg South Centre and St. Boniface would be on the bubble. The only Liberal hold would be Winnipeg North – only because the inexplicably popular Kevin Lamoureux is there…

The Tories already hold every seat outside Winnipeg so they can't gain anything - expect for Churchill where they are not competitive because its largely Indigenous


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 25, 2019, 12:33:10 pm
In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on June 25, 2019, 12:49:47 pm
In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

Not gonna lie, I quite liked Saron Gebresellassi, plus it just rubs me the wrong way that Taylor was invited to a debate among the candidates prior to the nomination & his team responded by saying he didn't need to attend because he already had it in the bag :/


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 25, 2019, 05:07:45 pm
In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Any chance for the Green Party in either the Halifax Metro area or on Cape Breton (I wouldn't expect 'Mainland' Nova Scotia - which includes the coasts!)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 25, 2019, 05:18:00 pm
Nanos June 21st:

CPC - 32.82%  -1.18%
LPC - 32.53%  +2.21%
NDP - 16.90%  +0.14
GRN - 10.18%  -1.19%

vs May 17th:
                         Current Trend
CPC - 35.89%    -> -3.07%
LPC - 30.64%    -> +1.89%
NDP - 14.19%   -> +2.71%
GRN - 11.14%   -> -0.96%

Trend - Generally decrease for the CPC and the Greens, increase for the LPC and the NDP; The Liberals seem to be gaining back support mostly from the Greens, some of that is going to the NDP as well. I'd also suspect some small move from CPC -> LPC due to TMX

No, this is entirely due to global warming!

Don't want to make too much of one poll, but interesting that the Conservatives have the exact same level of support that they had in the 2015 election.  I think there is no question the Conservatives are unable/don't seem interested in expanding their base. I think this is the downside of their right wing echo chamber - National Post, right wing talk radio, social media - where they seem to think that everybody in Canada has the exact same views that they have.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Jeppe on June 25, 2019, 06:00:42 pm
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 25, 2019, 06:36:29 pm
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 25, 2019, 08:26:54 pm
In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Any chance for the Green Party in either the Halifax Metro area or on Cape Breton (I wouldn't expect 'Mainland' Nova Scotia - which includes the coasts!)

If the Greens surge they might have a chance in Halifax or Halifax West. Halifax is a very good fit demographically for the Greens. If they surged to 10-20 seats it would definitely be on my list of pickups. Halifax West isn't a great fit, but the Greens are running a city councilor there. Cape Breton is one of the last places I'd expect a Green to win.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on June 25, 2019, 08:28:20 pm
My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Why not South Shore-St Margarets?  I might even put that and Sackville ahead of the Cape Breton seats or at least Sydney-Victoria--unless they're both overly touched by Greater Halifax-ism at this point..


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Jeppe on June 25, 2019, 09:05:42 pm
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 26, 2019, 12:52:08 am
In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.



Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Any chance for the Green Party in either the Halifax Metro area or on Cape Breton (I wouldn't expect 'Mainland' Nova Scotia - which includes the coasts!)

If the Greens surge they might have a chance in Halifax or Halifax West. Halifax is a very good fit demographically for the Greens. If they surged to 10-20 seats it would definitely be on my list of pickups. Halifax West isn't a great fit, but the Greens are running a city councilor there. Cape Breton is one of the last places I'd expect a Green to win.

Thanks for the reply. 

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 26, 2019, 12:55:03 am
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 26, 2019, 05:55:37 am
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.



Thanks for the reply. 

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on June 26, 2019, 07:04:43 am
The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

How about Charlottetown?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on June 26, 2019, 07:06:19 am
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

Though the "local factor" of Scheer's leadership could just as well boost the Cons, instead.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 26, 2019, 07:33:27 am
My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Why not South Shore-St Margarets?  I might even put that and Sackville ahead of the Cape Breton seats or at least Sydney-Victoria--unless they're both overly touched by Greater Halifax-ism at this point..

If it were a generic election with generic candidates sure, but I expect the Tory MLA's to make an outsized impact. It's not that much of a bold prediction in my opinion. The Tories do hold a majority of provincial seats on the island.

South Shore-St. Margaret's is trending away from the Tories due to the "Greater Halifaxism" you described. I'd estimate it's about 2/3 rural, 1/3 Halifax suburbia/exurbia. I live in the Sackville riding and it's always been about as Greater Halifax as Mississauga is GTA haha :D

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

How about Charlottetown?

Yeah, sure I'd throw it on the target list.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 26, 2019, 07:45:25 am
The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

How about Charlottetown?

I did a long post on EPP about Charlottetown, which I've quoted below. I think it'll likely go Liberal again; I honestly think Fredericton is a far better shot for the Greens. Not that they don't do well in Charlottetown, but with small parties there's a fine line between seats they win, and seats they do well in.

Quote
I am no Liberal advocate, and I've been confident about the Green's chances elsewhere, but some questions remain unanswered here. First of all, if Guelph is listed as Liberal on this (which I agree with,) I'm not entirely sure why this would be closer, the provincial result there was better than here; the Greens did better and the Liberals actually won two seats against the odds as opposed to placing fourth. This area is still ripe for a Green breakthrough, the Southern part of the riding could see many Green votes, and whereas the Liberals have to worry about 6 or so seats in New Brunswick, this and another seat in PEI, 5 seats in Nova Scotia and 1 in Newfoundland, the Greens can focus on two in Atlantic Canada. Naturally the Liberals have a fundraising advantage, so that may be offset. Sean Casey is a good MP, and unlike in Guelph/Esquimalt etc. this riding is tiny, and Sean will be a more localised and recognisable face within the community. The Greens tend to do better in open races anyway (or NDP seats), not ones with a decent Liberal incumbent. But ultimately the provincial election is a completely different scenario. That was a choice between which of the other two parties (the NDP had no representation or momentum here) could be trusted as an alternative to the long-serving Liberals. The federal election will be a straight battle between the Liberals and Conservatives. As I spend some of my time in the UK, I remember 2015 - there UKIP were polling similarly, having also held two seats at dissolution, and we were talking about UKIP winning seats like Castle Point, Boston and Skegness, Great Grimsby and of course South Thanet. The GPEW were wondering if they could gain Norwich South (where they went backwards) and Bristol West. In reality, they won a single seat. Now, I'm not saying that the GPC will do as badly, but I'm saying that once they get their four on Vancouver Island, it's going to be a tough fight from there. So I'll call this as Liberal for now. But if the Greens are truly contesting, that is a different scenario to our current one, and so at that point I will reconsider. Otherwise, this is a Liberal seat, and should certainly stay that way.

So I think the Greens have a chance. But this is a far tougher fight for them.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 26, 2019, 03:14:28 pm
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.



Thanks for the reply. 

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

I remember Hatman went through the redistributed numbers in 2015 including for Regina-Lewvan.  It may not have been as much as a redistributed 10% win in 2011 but I'm sure it was more than 500 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 26, 2019, 04:20:34 pm
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.



Thanks for the reply.  

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

I remember Hatman went through the redistributed numbers in 2015 including for Regina-Lewvan.  It may not have been as much as a redistributed 10% win in 2011 but I'm sure it was more than 500 votes.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=p46&lang=e (https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=p46&lang=e)

It was slightly more - 506 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on June 26, 2019, 04:28:15 pm
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.



Thanks for the reply.  

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

I remember Hatman went through the redistributed numbers in 2015 including for Regina-Lewvan.  It may not have been as much as a redistributed 10% win in 2011 but I'm sure it was more than 500 votes.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=p46&lang=e (https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=p46&lang=e)

It was slightly more - 506 votes.

Thanks for the correction.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: MaxQue on June 26, 2019, 05:48:34 pm
Quebec Proud is sending automated text messages about Quebec producing their own gas instead of "importing it from Trump's USA".


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on June 26, 2019, 07:28:32 pm
In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

Though the "local factor" of Scheer's leadership could just as well boost the Cons, instead.

I wonder if Ralph Goodale can hold on Regina.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on June 26, 2019, 09:31:49 pm
I wonder if Ralph Goodale can hold on Regina.

If he could survive the Iggy bust, he could survive the Scheer bump.  (Then again, Jim Bradley in Ontario was thought indestructable...until last year.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 27, 2019, 02:34:47 am

I wonder if Ralph Goodale can hold on Regina.


So it would seem... but there are other seats seats Iggy won that are ripe for a Conservative pickup (or at least were until Doug Ford weakened the CPC in Ontario) such as Markham-Thornhill and Scarborough-Agincourt. Goodale is still a mild favourite in my view, but I wouldn't rule out a gain here.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on June 28, 2019, 02:49:43 pm
Good news for my party: Tilly O'Neill-Gordon was nominated as the CPC candidate in Miramichi-Grand Lake. This is one of the more areas of NB more palatable to the CPC regardless of how right they go, with the PANB doing well. Despite previous Liberal strength, O'Neill-Gordon was a popular MP who held Finnigan to under 50% (a comparatively great result.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on June 30, 2019, 10:15:59 pm
http://338canada.com/map.htm

Canada has our own Nate Silver by name of Eric Grenier.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 01, 2019, 01:58:33 am
http://338canada.com/map.htm

Canada has our own Nate Silver by name of Eric Grenier.

He's great as are Philippe Fournier and Robert Martin.

https://leantossup.ca is also a good website imo.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Smid on July 01, 2019, 03:11:47 am
http://338canada.com/map.htm

Canada has our own Nate Silver by name of Eric Grenier.

He's great as are Philippe Fournier and Robert Martin.

https://leantossup.ca is also a good website imo.



Robert Martin launched a podcast about a week ago, too.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on July 02, 2019, 09:40:05 am
http://338canada.com/map.htm

Canada has our own Nate Silver by name of Eric Grenier.

Hatman doesn't like Eric Grenier.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on July 03, 2019, 03:28:13 pm
Maybe there is some confusion. 338canada.com is Philippe J. Fournier (alos does qc125)

Grenier did ThreeHundredEight.com but is now on CBC politics. He has a poll average and number of seats projection but I don't think he shows individual riding.

Since the election is coming maybe Tooclosetocall will reactivate soon.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 08, 2019, 02:57:37 am


In addition Geng Tan's wife is running, which is odd when you consider he said he stepped down to be closer to family. I would suspect as he was never given a cabinet/parlsec role despite his expertise in science, he probably felt he could be doing something better that was closer to home.

Don Valley North is of course a fairly marginal seat - but the Liberals are likely the favourites. Out of that bbelt of suburban and exurban diverse GTA seats (incl. York Centre, Markham-Thornhill, Richmond Hill, Scarborough-Agincourt, Markham-Unionville, Scarborough North, Willowdale) it's probably going to be onr of the most out of reach for the CPC (Scarborough North is also quite tricky)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on July 08, 2019, 08:19:07 pm
Quebec Proud is sending automated text messages about Quebec producing their own gas instead of "importing it from Trump's USA".

I received an automated phone message and it was about Trudreau and Blanchet supporting a carbon tax (or price on carbon don't remember the exact words).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on July 08, 2019, 08:45:50 pm
Former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will probably run for the Liberal party. Trudeau met him last winter to recruit him. His issue is homecare. He said it's the progressive party who has a chance to win. For the riding, Sherbrooke or somewhere in greater Montreal were mentioned.   

The two best options seem to be Sherbrooke and Pierrefonds-Dollard, but neither are perfect for him.

Hébert will seek the nomination in Longueuil - Saint-Hubert. Declared candidate in Sherbrooke wanted to go to nomination meeting and not wihtdraw. But in Longueuil - Saint-Hubert there is someone who declared in February. Eric Beaulieu has been on city council for 10 years and left the position of Vice President of the executive committee a few weeks ago. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on July 09, 2019, 06:49:18 am
Weekly Nanos numbers,change since last week:

LPC - 34.65% - +0.15
CPC - 30.38% - -1.32
NDP - 17.91% - +1.37
GRN - 8..77% - -1.03

I wish I could see the regionals but Nanos now makes you subscribe so pfft.

Trend: LPC have gained about 4% since June, the NDP gained about 2%. This is the highest the NDP has polled since March. Gains here for the LPC and NDP at the expense of the CPC, the CPC lost about 4% since June, the Greens are backdown to their normal polling averages, losing about 3% since June.

For the LPC and NDP in particular, the trend is even better when you go back two months and look at May, where we had highs for the CPC and Greens, vs current polling:

LPC - 30.64% - +3.74 (vs current)
CPC - 35.89% - -5.51
NDP - 14.19% - +3.72
GRN - 11.14% - -2.37


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on July 09, 2019, 08:40:59 pm
I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on July 09, 2019, 10:29:15 pm
I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 10, 2019, 10:26:56 am
I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

This especially now that the progressive vote has become more divided. It would be interesting to see how Scheer's leadership would fare if the Tories took 20ish seats from the Liberals, and the Liberals maintained their majority at the expense of the NDP and Bloc, but that looks unlikely now.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on July 10, 2019, 10:49:16 am
I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Its less about the raw seat count than it is about what consensus develops about how Scheer campaigned. In Mulcair's case, if he had run a campaign that New Democrats felt good about and he had performed well in debates etc... and was seen as having lost due to forces beyond his control - he would have easily been confirmed as leader. Instead, he was widely review as having run a dull, demoralizing campaign and as having made a series of really bad strategic decisions that cost the party dearly. On top of that he showed no contrition and had absolutely nothing to say about what he would do differently in the future so as not to repeat the same mistakes. On top of that, since by all accounts Mulcair was a really unpleasant person with a miserable personality - there was no "reservoir of good will" towards him in the party. No one ever really liked him as a person in the first place.

With regard to Scheer, if he is seen as having campaigned reasonably well and he does a competent job in the debates and he gains some ground but loses the election - and the consensus is that he lost largely because of a backlash against Doug Ford in Ontario - then he can probably live to fight another day...Harper lost in 2004 and still got to stay as CPC leader. If on the other hand, Scheer falls flat on his face in the campaign and is seen as having been a major liability to his party and he makes a lot of enemies within the party - that is a different story and then there would be pressure on his to quit. But is ANYONE in the Tory party going to regret that they picked Scheer as their leader instead of Maxime Bernier???


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on July 10, 2019, 05:00:58 pm
I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Its less about the raw seat count than it is about what consensus develops about how Scheer campaigned. In Mulcair's case, if he had run a campaign that New Democrats felt good about and he had performed well in debates etc... and was seen as having lost due to forces beyond his control - he would have easily been confirmed as leader. Instead, he was widely review as having run a dull, demoralizing campaign and as having made a series of really bad strategic decisions that cost the party dearly. On top of that he showed no contrition and had absolutely nothing to say about what he would do differently in the future so as not to repeat the same mistakes. On top of that, since by all accounts Mulcair was a really unpleasant person with a miserable personality - there was no "reservoir of good will" towards him in the party. No one ever really liked him as a person in the first place.

With regard to Scheer, if he is seen as having campaigned reasonably well and he does a competent job in the debates and he gains some ground but loses the election - and the consensus is that he lost largely because of a backlash against Doug Ford in Ontario - then he can probably live to fight another day...Harper lost in 2004 and still got to stay as CPC leader. If on the other hand, Scheer falls flat on his face in the campaign and is seen as having been a major liability to his party and he makes a lot of enemies within the party - that is a different story and then there would be pressure on his to quit. But is ANYONE in the Tory party going to regret that they picked Scheer as their leader instead of Maxime Bernier???

No, but maybe Erin O'Toole should have been the compromise candidate and not Andrew Scheer.

I think the main problem Scheer has is the Conservative echo chamber and the expectations this leads to.  it seems to me that most Conservatives genuinely believe that virtually all Canadians agree with them that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is 'destroying Canada', that the carbon tax is nothing but a 'tax grab' and that Canadians are just waiting to throw the Liberals out in virtually every riding in the next election.

I'm not even sure that holding the Liberals to a minority or even winning the most seats in a minority but remaining in opposition would satisfy most Conservatives.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 10, 2019, 05:07:41 pm
I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.


No, but maybe Erin O'Toole should have been the compromise candidate and not Andrew Scheer.

I agree Erin O'Toole would have been a better compromise candidate and if Scheer doesn't stay on, I think he has a good chance, although Lisa Raitt being deputy leader and getting a lot of attention will probably do a lot better.  Her biggest challenge is her riding is rapidly growing so no guarantee she will hold her seat.  Looked safe a few months ago, but now is vulnerable.

As for Scheer staying on, I think if the party gains both votes and seats, he should be fine, especially if a minority government as the party will want to be ready if government falls.  If the party loses ground then he is probably toast.  What direction they go in will be interesting.  If Bernier's PPC gets over 5% and costs them a whole wack of ridings, expect the party to swing rightward to scoop up those votes, while if PPC flops and they lose due to inability to appeal to centrist voters, expect them to move closer to the centre.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on July 10, 2019, 06:46:13 pm
FYI, Lisa Raitt cannot speak French. When she ran for leader she mouthed some horribly accented "French" that she was clearly reading from a script written in phonetics. GONG


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 10, 2019, 07:57:22 pm
FYI, Lisa Raitt cannot speak French. When she ran for leader she mouthed some horribly accented "French" that she was clearly reading from a script written in phonetics. GONG

Whereas Pierre Poilievre can - if Scheer forms government I suspect it'll between those two for Finance Minister, unless there's some star candidate I missed.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on July 10, 2019, 09:53:52 pm
FYI, Lisa Raitt cannot speak French. When she ran for leader she mouthed some horribly accented "French" that she was clearly reading from a script written in phonetics. GONG

Whereas Pierre Poilievre can - if Scheer forms government I suspect it'll between those two for Finance Minister, unless there's some star candidate I missed.

The idea of the noxious, hyperpartisan Pierre Polievre as Prime Minister should convince all sensible Canadians against voting Conservative.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on July 11, 2019, 09:50:21 am
I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on July 11, 2019, 09:52:07 am
I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French

I believe the OP was referring to either Lisa Raitt or Pierre Polievre being named Finance Minister, not of them running for the Conservative leadership.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 12, 2019, 12:11:53 am
I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French

I believe his first name was originally Peter but he had it changed.
I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French

I believe the OP was referring to either Lisa Raitt or Pierre Polievre being named Finance Minister, not of them running for the Conservative leadership.

Yeah. Neither of them have great French skills.

Two interesting GTA things for you.



Markham-Stouffville seems to be one of the York ridings trending to the CPC the least, so this should be a good race.



This is just the 416 - making it an awful result for the NDP, who had 8 seats here in 2011. The CPC could gain Scarborough Agincourt and York Centre.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 12, 2019, 06:36:15 am
For comparison, what was the Toronto result in 2015?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 12, 2019, 09:48:44 am
For comparison, what was the Toronto result in 2015?

Not the exact figures but:

Lib 52
Con 25
NDP 18
Green 2


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 13, 2019, 10:50:09 am
Ok, so probably enough to pick up York Centre, but otherwise fortress Toronto should hold.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: UWS on July 13, 2019, 11:00:45 am
Weekly Nanos numbers,change since last week:

LPC - 34.65% - +0.15
CPC - 30.38% - -1.32
NDP - 17.91% - +1.37
GRN - 8..77% - -1.03

I wish I could see the regionals but Nanos now makes you subscribe so pfft.

Trend: LPC have gained about 4% since June, the NDP gained about 2%. This is the highest the NDP has polled since March. Gains here for the LPC and NDP at the expense of the CPC, the CPC lost about 4% since June, the Greens are backdown to their normal polling averages, losing about 3% since June.

For the LPC and NDP in particular, the trend is even better when you go back two months and look at May, where we had highs for the CPC and Greens, vs current polling:

LPC - 30.64% - +3.74 (vs current)
CPC - 35.89% - -5.51
NDP - 14.19% - +3.72
GRN - 11.14% - -2.37

I knew it that Scheer was not invincible.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on July 13, 2019, 02:34:51 pm
I wonder how Vancouver and Montreal are looking now.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: UWS on July 13, 2019, 04:45:25 pm
I wonder how Vancouver and Montreal are looking now.

For Montreal, it seems that the NDP could be wiped off there.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 13, 2019, 05:44:37 pm
I wonder how Vancouver and Montreal are looking now.

For Montreal, it seems that the NDP could be wiped off there.

Rosemont is the only seat they can hold (it's probably their best shot in Quebec and the one seat they're favoured in) but they'll lose the other two, probably both to the Bloc.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on July 13, 2019, 07:45:14 pm
Rosemont is the only seat they can hold (it's probably their best shot in Quebec and the one seat they're favoured in) but they'll lose the other two, probably both to the Bloc.

With Steven Guilbeault running for the Libs in Laurier-Ste Marie, I wouldn't assume "probably both to the Bloc"--and in general, I don't know how well positioned the Bloc is these days as an "urban left" proxy option, particularly given how provincially, QS has swallowed up the PQ's urban-left base.  (And because of the QS factor, I'd probably also expect an echo of the Outremont byelection's NDP overperformance-in-defeat.  Overperformance relative to the conventional wisdom that the NDP's reverted to a single-digit-oblivion Quebec status quo, that is.)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 15, 2019, 08:28:49 am
Rosemont is the only seat they can hold (it's probably their best shot in Quebec and the one seat they're favoured in) but they'll lose the other two, probably both to the Bloc.

With Steven Guilbeault running for the Libs in Laurier-Ste Marie, I wouldn't assume "probably both to the Bloc"--and in general, I don't know how well positioned the Bloc is these days as an "urban left" proxy option, particularly given how provincially, QS has swallowed up the PQ's urban-left base.  (And because of the QS factor, I'd probably also expect an echo of the Outremont byelection's NDP overperformance-in-defeat.  Overperformance relative to the conventional wisdom that the NDP's reverted to a single-digit-oblivion Quebec status quo, that is.)

The question for Laurier-Sainte Marie is how much will the NDP drop in East Montreal. The Liberals absolute best result on this seat was in the high 30's, and they've struggled to break 25%, even in good years in Quebec. If the NDP collapses, I suspect the Liberals will win it, but if they hold up at all, I'd actually consider Guilbeault's candidacy a point in the Bloc's favour; splitting the urban progressive vote and letting the Bloc come up the middle.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on July 15, 2019, 10:24:16 am
The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 15, 2019, 11:29:05 am
The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.

Oh? I thought it was more working class, like Beaulieu's riding.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ishan on July 15, 2019, 12:29:16 pm
Who will succeed Singh?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on July 15, 2019, 05:52:46 pm
The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.

Oh? I thought it was more working class, like Beaulieu's riding.

Beaulieu’s riding would be sort of a Montreal equivalent of Scarborough Southwest. Laurier Ste. Marie more like A Montreal version of Davenport


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on July 15, 2019, 06:19:36 pm
The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.

Oh? I thought it was more working class, like Beaulieu's riding.

Beaulieu’s riding would be sort of a Montreal equivalent of Scarborough Southwest. Laurier Ste. Marie more like A Montreal version of Davenport

I think Boulerice's Rosemont is more Davenport-y.  Laurier-Ste Marie *might* be a bit more like Toronto Centre, complete with gay village, a Regent Park/St James Town-esque element in Jeanne-Mance, and a Ryerson/George Brown element in UQAM (and I feel safer saying that now that Suze Morrison's been elected provincially).

The thing to remember about Duceppe is that he was byelected in the first place as a sort of pre-Bloc independent-nationalist NDP/social-democrat proxy.  And he electorally sustained himself within his constituency by being on the Bloc's left, until he was "out-lefted" by the Orange Crush.

It's all an echo of how the Franco-cultural-class urban left used to be the heart and soul of the provincial PQ, but have these days decamped for QS.  And as for the Bloc, its current "base" is probably more about so-called suburban disgruntlement than urban progressivism--and in some ways, I'd even suggest that La Pointe-de-l'Île relative to Beaulieu probably has more in common with Etobicoke North relative to Doug Ford.

(Then there's the remaining NDP seat, Hochelaga--if Beaulieu's seat is SSW, Hochelaga's Beaches-East York.  At least, if one blew out the Beaches on behalf of a gigantic Olympic stadium or something)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Jeppe on July 15, 2019, 07:03:17 pm

I'd like to see Ruth Ellen Brosseau, given that she's re-elected this October.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on July 15, 2019, 07:04:25 pm

As leader of the 'third party'? 

Elizabeth May.

:)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on July 15, 2019, 07:59:05 pm

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on July 15, 2019, 08:34:54 pm
I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Last leadership race the big names took a pass. The prospect of replacing a two term government might look better so my guess is Scheer stays depends if high profile people are interested in the job and organizing behind the scenes. I don't think the Conservative would drop their leader without good replacement options interested like NDP did. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 15, 2019, 10:50:59 pm
I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Last leadership race the big names took a pass. The prospect of replacing a two term government might look better so my guess is Scheer stays depends if high profile people are interested in the job and organizing behind the scenes. I don't think the Conservative would drop their leader without good replacement options interested like NDP did. 

Depends on results.  If the Tories gain both votes and seats but fall short, than I think Scheer is safe, but if the party loses seats I think there will be a lot of pressure on him to resign.  I also think if Tories gain everywhere but Ontario, you could see things get interesting.  Not enough to push Ford out right away, but probably will see some organizing there and MPPs more emboldened to go against him.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on July 17, 2019, 08:42:23 am

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 17, 2019, 08:46:45 am

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash

Not a bad list. You could add Peter Julian. Trouble is, it's possible only two of those win (Angus and Boulerice, add Julian for a third). That would be a really bad result for the NDP and I think they can definitely do better - but it isn't outside the realms of possibility.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on July 17, 2019, 09:24:08 am

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash

Not a bad list. You could add Peter Julian. Trouble is, it's possible only two of those win (Angus and Boulerice, add Julian for a third). That would be a really bad result for the NDP and I think they can definitely do better - but it isn't outside the realms of possibility.

Ya, *depending on if they win*

There are a couple other names of candidates that "could" be leadership contenders but have no Parliamentary experience. I'm thinking of a couple of notables from municipal politics:
Laurel Collins in Victoria, Matthew Green in Hamilton Centre or Taylor Bachrach in Skeena-Bulkley Valley

another MP that I wouldn't be surprised if they ran for leadership: Daniel Blakie


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on July 17, 2019, 10:25:40 am

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash

Not a bad list. You could add Peter Julian. Trouble is, it's possible only two of those win (Angus and Boulerice, add Julian for a third). That would be a really bad result for the NDP and I think they can definitely do better - but it isn't outside the realms of possibility.

Ya, *depending on if they win*

There are a couple other names of candidates that "could" be leadership contenders but have no Parliamentary experience. I'm thinking of a couple of notables from municipal politics:
Laurel Collins in Victoria, Matthew Green in Hamilton Centre or Taylor Bachrach in Skeena-Bulkley Valley

another MP that I wouldn't be surprised if they ran for leadership: Daniel Blaikie

Anyone who even runs for the NDP leadership MUST be able to speak at least some French (and English). That qualifies Boulerice, Caron, Ashton, Julian, Robinson, REB and Angus (sort of). As far as i know the other names mentioned speak no French. GONG!


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 18, 2019, 02:54:20 am


Interesting poll this - voting intention after respondents named their most important issues. The numbers are for each issue's respondents, so each individual voter is included multiple times.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 19, 2019, 07:56:20 pm
https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa (https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa)

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on July 19, 2019, 09:12:41 pm
https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa (https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa)

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 20, 2019, 04:44:01 am
https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa (https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa)

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 20, 2019, 05:54:06 am
https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa (https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa)

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 20, 2019, 08:45:34 am
https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa (https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa)

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

I don't see how it can happen really. It would either involve the NDP winning back seats like Ottawa Centre, Halifax or Northwest Territories, all of which should stay Liberal, or the NDP regaining their position against the Conservatives and holding up in the West, assuming they don't recover in Quebec. None of those look possible or likely.

Never doubt hyper partisans ability to talk up their chances though. If you listened to them you could expect Liberal wins in Lethbridge and Louis Saint Laurent and Conservative wins in Lac Saint Louis and Victoria.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on July 20, 2019, 10:21:50 am
https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa (https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa)

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

I don't see how it can happen really. It would either involve the NDP winning back seats like Ottawa Centre, Halifax or Northwest Territories, all of which should stay Liberal, or the NDP regaining their position against the Conservatives and holding up in the West, assuming they don't recover in Quebec. None of those look possible or likely.

Never doubt hyper partisans ability to talk up their chances though. If you listened to them you could expect Liberal wins in Lethbridge and Louis Saint Laurent and Conservative wins in Lac Saint Louis and Victoria.

I think some of the "net gains" wishful-think argument might involve stuff like "Singhburbia" or wherever Horwathmania reaped Ontario rewards in 2018.

Incidentally, it's worth noting that in Niagara Centre (or Welland, as it was then known), Allen forced Liberal incumbent John Maloney into 3rd place in 2008--and then in the 2011 rematch, the Iggy disaster relegated Maloney to a *really* distant 14% as both NDP and CPC were 40%+.  So maybe a bit of deja vu re Allen's current polling underperformance.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on July 23, 2019, 07:07:49 am
https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa (https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa)

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

I don't see how it can happen really. It would either involve the NDP winning back seats like Ottawa Centre, Halifax or Northwest Territories, all of which should stay Liberal, or the NDP regaining their position against the Conservatives and holding up in the West, assuming they don't recover in Quebec. None of those look possible or likely.

Never doubt hyper partisans ability to talk up their chances though. If you listened to them you could expect Liberal wins in Lethbridge and Louis Saint Laurent and Conservative wins in Lac Saint Louis and Victoria.

I think some of the "net gains" wishful-think argument might involve stuff like "Singhburbia" or wherever Horwathmania reaped Ontario rewards in 2018.

Incidentally, it's worth noting that in Niagara Centre (or Welland, as it was then known), Allen forced Liberal incumbent John Maloney into 3rd place in 2008--and then in the 2011 rematch, the Iggy disaster relegated Maloney to a *really* distant 14% as both NDP and CPC were 40%+.  So maybe a bit of deja vu re Allen's current polling underperformance.

This is not unrealistic; Niagara Centre has a long history of voting NDP, mostly provincially but Allen was a two term MP, and is a high profile Candidate taking on a low-profile Liberal MP.

The point I want to make is that campaigns matter. We only have to look at 2015. Polling from August 2015 looked like - NDP 39%, CPC 28%, LPC 25% and we all know how the Third polling party for most of the time then won the election.
This will be an NDP target, so that means resources that may or may not have been there in 2015.

If we look at momentum, the NDP from Ipsos and Nanos (who had weekly polling going) have the NDP up to 18%, from Nanos that a 4% gain in 2 months. There is a mild momentum towards the NDP mostly coming from the Greens I'd wager. We also have a stable lead for the LPC now and a decreasing/stabilizing CPC.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 23, 2019, 03:59:48 pm
I always take riding polls with a grain of salt.  I think using a whole bunch of them to get overall average perhaps and sometimes they tell you something, after all Mainstreet showed a three way race in Ottawa West-Nepean in 2018 provincial election with NDP narrowly ahead and although NDP came up support, they almost won that riding and that is not a riding they generally perform well in.  On the other hand, they've had some pretty big misses such as Nanaimo by-election or last BC election, showed BC Liberals narrowly ahead in when they came in third and BC Liberals 20 points ahead in Surrey-Fleetwood which they lost by 18 points.  Another big miss was Forum showed Liberals winning Brandon-Souris by-election by 30 points and Tories narrowly held on. 

Every election you get a few shockers, but generally best way to figure out target seats is look at past federal and provincial results.  If a party has never even been competitive in a certain riding or they won it many years ago but haven't been competitive in recent elections (i.e. Tories in Toronto-St. Paul's or NDP in Yorkton-Melville are examples of this) they probably aren't going to win it unless a party is polling at record heights (see NDP in Alberta in 2015) in which you will see them win some of these. 

So in sum any riding where the Liberals didn't win or have a strong second in 2015 are probably not winneable.  For Tories any riding that hasn't voted Tory in last decade either provincially or federally or they haven't had a close second is also off the table and even there, there are some ridings in 2011 they won and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall.  For NDP, unless a major surge, I think you can apply same rule but ignore those that went NDP in Quebec in 2011 (those they won elsewhere are doable in most cases), Alberta in 2015 provincially, and Ontario ones 2018 where NDP never came within 10 points in any other election save that since 1990.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Smid on July 23, 2019, 05:17:15 pm
As is frequently the case, Miles speaks common sense that is so often missing in political hot takes...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 23, 2019, 06:59:01 pm
For one example, in one riding poll last time round, Seamus O'Regan lost to Ryan Clearly by a good margin - obviously the Liberals gained and he won with over 50%.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on July 23, 2019, 08:25:09 pm
and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 23, 2019, 09:54:40 pm
and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on July 24, 2019, 06:17:40 am
and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on July 24, 2019, 06:25:28 am
and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.

I don't think she's running as part of the Ford clan, though, so that could make a difference as well.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on July 24, 2019, 06:31:31 am
and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.

I don't think she's running as part of the Ford clan, though, so that could make a difference as well.

Rob Ford's wife, but definitely OUT with the official Ford Clan who are wrapped around Doug. I think she may grab some of that Ford personal conservative vote, and that may be just enough to keep this with the LPC. Interestingly Etobicoke North was one of the 30+ seats the LPC held after the 2011 disaster, and by 10 points.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 24, 2019, 02:41:59 pm
and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.

I don't think she's running as part of the Ford clan, though, so that could make a difference as well.

Rob Ford's wife, but definitely OUT with the official Ford Clan who are wrapped around Doug. I think she may grab some of that Ford personal conservative vote, and that may be just enough to keep this with the LPC. Interestingly Etobicoke North was one of the 30+ seats the LPC held after the 2011 disaster, and by 10 points.

Also with all the cuts and much of the Ford Nation tending to be lower middle income, there is the question whether that group still supports him or no longer does.  Either way I suspect Tories to do better in Etobicoke North than 2015 even if they drop province wide, but the gap was almost 40 points and don't see them closing that completely.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 25, 2019, 09:58:32 am
Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on July 25, 2019, 11:16:19 am
Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 25, 2019, 12:32:13 pm
Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

Well, he's not his brother, whose approvals were in the 30s when he was mayor.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 25, 2019, 12:32:41 pm
Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

Yeah and approval in low 20s is pretty disastrous.  Only reason second least popular is McNeil's are in the teens but Ford's approval ratings are low enough basically Scheer needs to hope Ford doesn't feature too prominently in the election or he is toast while Trudeau needs to hope Ford does play a promote role as that is his ticket to a second term.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 25, 2019, 12:35:01 pm
Fordnation support is like Trump's, there is an absolute floor, and nothing he does or says will drop that support below that number. There is a reason why he's not the least popular premier in the country (only second least!).

Yes, there is a floor, but it is lower than you think with some polls showing his approval rating as low as 20%

Well, he's not his brother, whose approvals were in the 30s when he was mayor.

His brother had more personal problems than he does, but had a certain level of likeability Doug Ford lacks and also his brother was good at responding to constituency concerns whereas Doug mostly just rides of his coattails.  Also the kind of austerity Ford is introducing provincially would be tough to do municipally as you don't have political parties municipally so cannot whip votes thus much tougher to adopt policies as unpopular.  Nonetheless I think its a combination of cuts and his personality causing low approval ratings.  Even without cuts his approval rating would likely be in only the 30s and likewise if it were someone more likeable doing the cuts, their approval rating would be negative for sure, but not quite as bad.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on July 26, 2019, 08:21:23 am
Another riding poll, this time in Whitby, ON. An open liberal seat (technically indy) won by 3% last time.

CPC 38
Lib 35
Green 8
NDP 4
PPC 3
Undecided 12


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 26, 2019, 03:51:59 pm
Another riding poll, this time in Whitby, ON. An open liberal seat (technically indy) won by 3% last time.

CPC 38
Lib 35
Green 8
NDP 4
PPC 3
Undecided 12

Looking at Mainstreet's two polls which are Niagara Centre and Whitby, my thoughts are as follows off course considering their history of riding polling is not great.

Liberals: Good numbers and if they can hold those will likely be re-elected, question is just do they win another majority or only minority.

Tories: Not ideal for forming government, but not terrible either as a 5 point jump would be enough to a minimum give a strong minority or even majority.  After all Doug Ford last year got 5 and 7% better in those ridings respectively.

NDP: Disastrous numbers although Niagara Centre is only one they've ever won, Whitby unlike Oshawa is not one I would expect them to win, even in a good election.  Still Liberals will hope the NDP stays where they are whereas Tories probably hope they rebound a bit.

Just for comparisons of past elections:

For Niagara Centre, Liberals haven't gotten as high as 43% since 2000 and haven't provincially for at least 40 years.  In Whitby, 39% is below what they got last time, 2004, and only 1% above what they got in 2006 when they lost, mind you that was at the height of the sponsorship scandal so even if English Canada votes same way as in 2006, Liberals will win due to much better showing in Quebec.  It's also well above what they got in 2008, 2011 and recent provincial elections

For Tories, 30% for Niagara Centre is actually not that bad.  Well below the 39% they got in 2011 and below Ford's 37%, but only 2% below what they got in 2008 which was a strong minority, and 1% above what they got in both 2015 and 2006.  In Whitby, 41% is slightly below 2015 at 42%, but also only 2% below what they got in 2006, but 9% below 2008 and 18% below 2011.  Provincially also only 5% less than they got last year thus if they stay there don't form government, but jump 5%, they win big in Ontario and likely form government thus why a 5% swing in Ontario makes a huge difference in seats whereas in Alberta wouldn't matter much.  I also think when Jim Flaherty and Christine Elliott were running, you have to consider personal appeal as I suspect both got some personal votes and with a generic Tory candidate probably would have not done quite as well.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on July 26, 2019, 04:47:39 pm
The July Mainstreet national poll has the NDP at 10% (11.5% in Ontario). If Mainstreet's riding polls are coherent with those numbers, I expect they will never be kind to the NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on July 26, 2019, 08:25:36 pm
Re the Cons: remember, of course, that NC is basically an Obama/Trump type of riding, so at this point it's not *too* surprising if they've absorbed a bit of the "populist" end of NDP support.

And re the NDP in Whitby: remember that the *provincial* party somewhat surprisingly came within 10 points of winning last year.

Libs: to be only barely behind in Whitby after everything *is* a good sign for them.  And in the end, I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a "stealth retain" for the Libs...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 26, 2019, 11:20:33 pm
Ekos has some interesting #'s out.  Quite a shift, especially in Ontario for one week, but could be statistical noise.  It is summer and I've found in summer polls tend to be a little over the map, probably due to lower response rate as many are on vacation.

Nationally

Decided Federal vote intention

Weighted Total:992
Total:995
Liberal Party30.6%

Conservative Party36.0%

New Democratic Party9.9%

Green Party12.9%

People's Party3.8%

Bloc Quebecois4.6%

Another party not listed here2.2%

Ontario

390
402
33.8% LPC
+
35.8%CPC

9.5% NDP

13.2% GP 

4.5% PPC
----
3.2% Other
+

4.89

Quebec

232
156
36.7%LPC
++
24.3%CPC
----
6.9%NDP

10.2%GP

2.1%PPC

19.7% BQ
++++
0.0%
--

7.85 MOE


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 27, 2019, 01:25:57 pm

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Excellent idea, if the idea is to actually kill off the NDP for real this time.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on July 27, 2019, 05:22:45 pm

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Excellent idea, if the idea is to actually kill off the NDP for real this time.

Not that it's *good* or anything, but I suppose one can *very* inexactly compare him to Corbyn (i.e. hard-left senior citizen figurehead)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: 136or142 on July 28, 2019, 05:29:13 pm
Lenore Zann won the Liberal nomination.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 29, 2019, 08:41:14 am
Svend Robinson won't win his seat, so it's a moot point. If the NDP does indeed have a bad election, the leader in waiting will be Charlie Angus, assuming he wins his seat. The NDP won't have very many (if any) seats left in Quebec, so there'll be less importance on having a leader who is completely fluent in French. Of course, if anyone does survive in Quebec (Boulerice? Brousseau?), there'll will be immediate front runners as well.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 29, 2019, 11:59:57 am
Svend Robinson won't win his seat, so it's a moot point. If the NDP does indeed have a bad election, the leader in waiting will be Charlie Angus, assuming he wins his seat. The NDP won't have very many (if any) seats left in Quebec, so there'll be less importance on having a leader who is completely fluent in French. Of course, if anyone does survive in Quebec (Boulerice? Brousseau?), there'll will be immediate front runners as well.

Exactly although Robinson running probably improves chances of Tories winning it due to stronger splits on the progressive side, but still would give Liberals edge.  He is from Burnaby and when he was MP his riding was only on the Burnaby side, didn't include North Shore which outside Lonsdale area is hostile territory for NDP and always goes Liberal or Conservative.  For starters if this riding existed provincially, the BC Liberals would have won it in 2017 and I cannot see NDP winning anything in BC that would have gone BC Liberals provincially.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on July 30, 2019, 05:39:08 pm
Forum is out with a July poll and while last year's numbers were suspect, these seem more in line with others.

CPC 34%
Lib 31%
GPC 12%
NDP 12%
PPC5%
BQ 5%

On regionals, Tories have big lead in Alberta, Liberals ahead in Quebec by 11 points, Liberals lead by 5 in Ontario, by four in Atlantic Canada, while Tories ahead in BC thanks to strong splits on left.  Interesting tidbit is leadership approval ratings.

Trudeau is 34% approve vs. 55% disapprove so normally leaders with these numbers lose.  But Scheer's are no better at 27% approve and 48% disapprove thus its really about who do you dislike less not who do you like more.  Elizabeth May once again only one with positive approval ratings.

Nanos has an interactive map like Forum based on a sample of 73,000 since April

https://www.nanos.co/nanostimemap/

It shows seat wise, Tories have 103 seats they are ahead by over 7 points, Liberals 109 seats, NDP 11 seats, BQ 5 seats, Greens 3 seats, while 28 seats are within 2 points and 79 seats within 2-7 points.  One interesting thing is they show Liberals leading in Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies which considering history of the riding and general trends I find that hard to believe.  Sure Bob Zimmer is a bit nutty, he is the guy who wants to make the weapon most often used in mass shootings, AR15 non-restricted, but I doubt many pay too much attention to that.  Atlantic Canada interesting as New Brunswick largely painted blue, while Nova Scotia solidly red even rural areas.

EDIT: the Map is from April so a bit dated but at least a good starting point.  If you are willing to pay over a $1,000 you can get a detailed one, but I just subscribed to the weekly numbers.  Note you can still get party power, best PM, approval, and vote consider for free and those are often good indicators in themselves.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 01, 2019, 09:29:39 am
Luc Fortin revealed some Tory internals on local radio today. (https://www.985fm.ca/extraits-audios/politique/238349/politique-sondages-internes-les-liberaux-en-avance-dans-trois-comtes-npd-trudeau-teste-ses-attaques-en-vue-des-elections-maxime-bernier-au-debat) Grits lead in 3 Dipper QC ridings unsurprisingly, but specifically, REB is at 9% in Berthier-Maskinongé, Grits lead a 4-way race in Jonquière and bigly in Longueil-Saint Hubert, with Nantel at 5%.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 01, 2019, 01:06:07 pm
Luc Fortin revealed some Tory internals on local radio today. (https://www.985fm.ca/extraits-audios/politique/238349/politique-sondages-internes-les-liberaux-en-avance-dans-trois-comtes-npd-trudeau-teste-ses-attaques-en-vue-des-elections-maxime-bernier-au-debat) Grits lead in 3 Dipper QC ridings unsurprisingly, but specifically, REB is at 9% in Berthier-Maskinongé, Grits lead a 4-way race in Jonquière and bigly in Longueil-Saint Hubert, with Nantel at 5%.

What were Tory and BQ numbers like in those ridings?  Yes surprising how low  REB is mind you this area went solidly CAQ provincially so not exactly favourable NDP terrain.  Their best hopes are in areas QS did well.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on August 01, 2019, 03:16:51 pm
I listened to two of his radio interviews and wrote down numbers he gave. Don't know if numbers for all parties are published somehwre.

Longueuil-Saint-Hubert

1- Lib 40.4
2- BQ 28.6
3- Con ?
4. Green ?
5- NDP 6.4

Undecided 18% (party numbers seem to be excluding undecided)


Berthier-Maskinongé

1- Lib 30.5
2- Con 27.6
3- BQ 22.6
4- NPD 9.32

People party near 5%. 26% undecided

Jonquière

1- Lib 28.7
2- Con 24
3- NPD 21.5
4- BQ 21

No clue on the sample size or margin of error. He said it was fairly recent. I don't know if Conservatives have their own polling or could use Mainstreet. Luc Fortin is associated with Mainstreet and that firm loves reporting decimals.   


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Ridin' with Biden on August 01, 2019, 06:41:55 pm
What do you think is causing this weird sudden Conservative surge the last week or so? It seemed like the Liberals were slowly gaining for the last 4-5 weeks or so, as the SNC Lavalin scandal faded from memory. Is it a polling error due to people being away on vacation?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 02, 2019, 09:44:04 am
Surprised to see the NDP doing (comparatively) well in Jonquiere, but absolutely tanking in REB's riding.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Philly D. on August 02, 2019, 02:00:50 pm
Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 03, 2019, 12:58:04 am
Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

Indeed.

Boulerice is the only Dipper who I see winning in Quebec. Don't give me any of the Brosseau/Caron/Dusseault strong incumbent stuff. That won't save them now (although obviously if Boulerice wasn't a strong incumbent, it could easily be 0)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on August 03, 2019, 05:40:37 am
Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

Indeed.

Boulerice is the only Dipper who I see winning in Quebec. Don't give me any of the Brosseau/Caron/Dusseault strong incumbent stuff. That won't save them now (although obviously if Boulerice wasn't a strong incumbent, it could easily be 0)

And with that in mind, I still feel there might be a particularly sharp "Montreal vs ROQ" divide re what's left of NDP support; so even in open seats like Hochelaga and LSM, the Dippers could be poised to far outpoll Brosseau, or just generally hold their base better.  In the midst of urban cosmopolitanism, they're not as hung up about turbans.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 03, 2019, 10:58:35 am


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 03, 2019, 12:23:03 pm


I did not know about this at all. He was certainly one of the most personable Conservative MPs, and I suspect people will praise how he stuck up for immigrants to Canada when his party would not.




The comments say it all.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: VPH on August 03, 2019, 02:24:58 pm
Very saddened by Deepak Obhrai's loss. I had the pleasure of meeting him at a small campaign event in Montreal when he ran for leader. He entertained us all with stories of defeating the political establishment. What a great guy and somebody dedicated to all Canadians.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Njall on August 03, 2019, 10:51:39 pm
I'm saddened by his loss as well. In a city like Calgary, Conservative MPs like Mr. Obhrai with such spirit and personality are a rarity, and he was a refreshing exception.

I will wait with muted anticipation to see who the party appoints to replace him.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 04, 2019, 08:32:32 am
Grit Denis Paradis isn't running again in Brome-Missisquoi.  (https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1247184/election-federale-brome-missisquoi-denis-paradis-liberal)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 04, 2019, 10:09:38 am
Grit Denis Paradis isn't running again in Brome-Missisquoi.  (https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1247184/election-federale-brome-missisquoi-denis-paradis-liberal)

Why did he only decide now? Once Simms and Dhillon were nominated, I was sure everyone who was planning to retire had done so.

Safe Liberal.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on August 04, 2019, 10:32:00 pm
Former cycling athlete Lyne Bessette is seeking the Lieral nomination in Brome-Missisquoi.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/sports/1246084/lyne-bessette-candidate-investiture-liberale-brome-missisquoi (https://ici.radio-canada.ca/sports/1246084/lyne-bessette-candidate-investiture-liberale-brome-missisquoi)

So doesn't look like Paradis just made the decision. She was recruited. It's managing the annoucement.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 05, 2019, 01:17:25 am
Former cycling athlete Lyne Bessette is seeking the Lieral nomination in Brome-Missisquoi.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/sports/1246084/lyne-bessette-candidate-investiture-liberale-brome-missisquoi (https://ici.radio-canada.ca/sports/1246084/lyne-bessette-candidate-investiture-liberale-brome-missisquoi)

So doesn't look like Paradis just made the decision. She was recruited. It's managing the annoucement.

What's this obsession with getting sportspeople to run these days?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 05, 2019, 01:20:31 am
New riding poll in Quebec (Mainstreet again - these are the toplines):

Liberal (incumbent cabinet minister Duclos) - 30
Con - 23.4
Bloc (former MP Christine Gagnon running) - 20
NPD - 7
Green - 6.9
PPC - 2.7
Undecided - 8.4

Not a bad result for Duclos given his tally last time. Cons hoping to take this and neighbouring Louis-Hebert.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 06, 2019, 02:25:31 pm
New riding poll in Quebec (Mainstreet again - these are the toplines):

Liberal (incumbent cabinet minister Duclos) - 30
Con - 23.4
Bloc (former MP Christine Gagnon running) - 20
NPD - 7
Green - 6.9
PPC - 2.7
Undecided - 8.4

Not a bad result for Duclos given his tally last time. Cons hoping to take this and neighbouring Louis-Hebert.

Not a total surprise.  While Tories tend to do well in Quebec City region, this riding has always been a struggle for centre-right parties, even provincially it went QS, not CAQ so a Tory pickup here was always a longshot.  Has lots of civil servants, people in tourism industry, and students, all groups that tend to generally lean left.  The other Quebec City ridings are more suburban thus more favourable for parties on the right.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 07, 2019, 02:25:57 pm
Two interesting candidacies:

The first, and probably the slightly more consequential: Former MLA for Calgary Bow and BC Liberal candidate in Nanaimo-North Cowichan has been nominated for the CPC in Alistair MacGregor's riding of Cowichan-Malahat-Langford. Both 338 and EPP have it going Green.

The second: Actor Jesse Lipscombe is putting himself forward for the Liberal nomination in true blue St Albert-Edmonton.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: gottsu on August 07, 2019, 02:46:18 pm
If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 07, 2019, 03:22:20 pm
If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.

Support yes, coalition no.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: gottsu on August 07, 2019, 04:28:05 pm
If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.

Support yes, coalition no.

There is no tradition of coalition goverments in Canada? Why?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 07, 2019, 05:11:55 pm
If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.

Support yes, coalition no.

There is no tradition of coalition goverments in Canada? Why?

With FTFP, most of the time the winning party wins a majority so no incentive for a coalition, their goal is introduce popular policies while a minority and dare opposition to vote them down and use that as a springboard for an early election to gain a majority.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 08, 2019, 12:43:36 pm
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1132

()

Since Kyle Hutton did one, and I had some time, here's mine for today.

I have

160 for the Liberals with 92 safe, 31 likely, 21 leaning and 16 tilting
141 for the Conservatives with 88 safe, 26 likely, 18 leaning and 9 tilting
15 for the New Democrats with 4 safe, 6 likely, 2 leaning and 3 tilting
16 for the Bloc Quebecois with 5 safe, 5 likely, 4 leaning and 2 tilting
6 for the Greens with 4 safe, 1 leaning and 1 tilting.
None for the PPC, Christian Heritage, Wilson-Raybould, Philpott, or anyone else.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 08, 2019, 12:56:11 pm
MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on August 08, 2019, 01:26:58 pm
MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 08, 2019, 01:36:33 pm
MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand

Could well be the only pickup for the NDP anywhere.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 08, 2019, 01:53:42 pm
The one good news for Trudeau is on best PM, he is at 48%, while Scheer only 30% and that has sort of been the trend as while Scheer was competitive on best PM earlier this year, as people get to know him, the response largely seems to be negative. Off course that could change in the campaign.  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on August 08, 2019, 04:14:29 pm
Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

Indeed.

Boulerice is the only Dipper who I see winning in Quebec. Don't give me any of the Brosseau/Caron/Dusseault strong incumbent stuff. That won't save them now (although obviously if Boulerice wasn't a strong incumbent, it could easily be 0)

And with that in mind, I still feel there might be a particularly sharp "Montreal vs ROQ" divide re what's left of NDP support; so even in open seats like Hochelaga and LSM, the Dippers could be poised to far outpoll Brosseau, or just generally hold their base better.  In the midst of urban cosmopolitanism, they're not as hung up about turbans.

Forum has a Quebec poll big enough to have regional segmentation. NDP is at 9% (it has Lib 30%, Conservative 28%, Bloc 15%, Green 10%). By region, NDP has 13% in Montreal, and 7% in Quebec City and Rest of Québec. It does better among non-francophones.

The correlation with the Québec Solidaire vote doesn't look strong enough for the NDP to have a chance to win the corresponding seats.  By provincial vote QS voters (sample is small with just over a hundred vote) go Lib 28%, NDP 24%, Green 22%, Conservative  12%, Bloc 7%.

Abacus had also a twitter post at the end of July of federal vote by 2018 Quebec vote. I imagine the sample was small but it was 35% Liberal, 27% NDP, 22% Conservative, 12% Green, 1% Bloc. 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on August 08, 2019, 06:49:28 pm
  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Krago on August 08, 2019, 07:32:03 pm
  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)

Soldiers with guns. In our cities. In Canada.

https://youtu.be/uMsqEph7a8I


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 08, 2019, 09:22:16 pm
  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)

Actually Harper was damaged fairly badly by bozo eruptions and hidden agenda in 2004 so he started with fairly negative numbers.  His 5 promises in many ways helped him as well as the Liberals also did almost nothing before Christmas assuming no one would pay attention while Harper was active.  On Nanos poll tracker in December, Liberals maintained lead, but on best PM Harper pulled ahead before his party did.  Off course Martin ran a disastrous campaign too so it was a combination of both.  I think if Liberals won an okay campaign they could have barely held on and Tories likewise if a medicore would have lost.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: gottsu on August 09, 2019, 06:18:22 am
I don't think Scheer would be a good PM, I simply don't see him in that role, he lacks gravitas to me. Justin isn't better by a large margin, but he has good PR at least. Stephen Harper, the last Conservative PM was dignified, proud and strong to me, while Scheer is not.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on August 09, 2019, 06:49:40 am
  Both Hudak in 2014 and Harper in 2006 started with similar numbers, while Hudak just re-enforced the negative image thus his poor showing while Harper improved it dramatically thus won.

I don't know if Harper improved it dramatically so much as the Paul Martin Liberals' negatives exploded mid-campaign through sponsorship scandal revelations.  (Except, maybe, as regards the CPC's breakthrough in Quebec that year)

Actually Harper was damaged fairly badly by bozo eruptions and hidden agenda in 2004 so he started with fairly negative numbers.  His 5 promises in many ways helped him as well as the Liberals also did almost nothing before Christmas assuming no one would pay attention while Harper was active.  On Nanos poll tracker in December, Liberals maintained lead, but on best PM Harper pulled ahead before his party did.  Off course Martin ran a disastrous campaign too so it was a combination of both.  I think if Liberals won an okay campaign they could have barely held on and Tories likewise if a medicore would have lost.

But "hidden agenda" matters still dogged Harper in '06, to the point where it continued to hold back gains in places like the GTA--at that point, national support for the Cons was more "probationary" than anything.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 09, 2019, 07:14:02 am
I don't think Scheer would be a good PM, I simply don't see him in that role, he lacks gravitas to me. Justin isn't better by a large margin, but he has good PR at least. Stephen Harper, the last Conservative PM was dignified, proud and strong to me, while Scheer is not.

This is why although I would lean towards the CPC normally, I wouldn't say I'm supporting them this time, although I get to escape that choice.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on August 09, 2019, 07:23:04 am
MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand

Absolutely true. Atlantic Canada is where you predict based on local candidates and then adjust for polls, not the other way around.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on August 09, 2019, 02:10:25 pm
Mainstreet poll for Maxime's Bernier riding of Beauce

Conservative 33,5%
People's 33%
Liberal 19%
Bloc 6%
Green 4%
NDP 2%
Other 2,5%

Margin of error 3,87%, the question mentions parties and the leaders

66% are satisfied of the MP's work. Some of Bernier's ideas were polled.

67% agree gender parity in Cabinet is not a priority
56% agree mass immigration and extreme multiculturalism lead to social conflict and potential violence
42% agree to abolish supply management, 37% disagree
31% agree with idea of reopening the abortion debate
44% believe the federal government has nothing to do with climate change because environment is a shared jurisdiction and provinces have programs for it 

(don't know if there is a mistake in the last one. Seems like something Bernier would think but it is put in his two less popular ideas but it got 44%)

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-bernier-dans-une-course-a-deux-8f68d267facebd41757d310dcc1e22d1 (https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-bernier-dans-une-course-a-deux-8f68d267facebd41757d310dcc1e22d1)

I don't know if this will influence the decision to include Bernier in the debate. The party has the number of candidates criteria and needs the probability of winning criteria. It is subjective but this poll tells Bernier has a chance of being elected.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on August 12, 2019, 08:17:46 am
Abacus Poll:
https://abacusdata.ca/dead-heat-in-national-support-as-the-federal-election-approaches/#.XU6fuI4zV5c.twitter

CPC - 33% +1
LPC - 32% =
NDP - 17% +1
GRN - 10% -1
BQ - 4% =

Regionals:

BC: CPC - 30%, LPC - 29%, NDP - 22%, GRN - 17%
AB: CPC - 58%, LPC 25%, NDP - 13%, GRN - 5%
S/M: CPC - 44%, LPC - 25%, NDP - 22%, GRN - 5%
ON: LPC - 35%, CPC - 30%, NDP - 21%, GRN - 9%
QC: LPC - 36%, CPC - 24%, BQ - 18%, NDP - 9%, GRN - 9%
ATL: LPC - 44%, CPC - 24%, GRN - 12%, NDP - 10%


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 12, 2019, 09:21:41 am
MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand

Absolutely true. Atlantic Canada is where you predict based on local candidates and then adjust for polls, not the other way around.

Jack Harris winning is by no means a slam dunk. He didn't win in 2015, after all. I think it will be close.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 12, 2019, 02:09:56 pm


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: gottsu on August 12, 2019, 02:56:12 pm
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on August 12, 2019, 03:38:46 pm
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?

Bernier quit the Tories and didn't really bring much of a constituency with him. That is at least in part because the Tories have bad memories of the last party split keeping them out of power. Plus his conversion to right wing populism is quite new, so the party was kind of directionless, caught between libertarianism and right wing populism until quite recently. Overall not a good recipe to pick up a lot of support.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: gottsu on August 12, 2019, 04:08:18 pm
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?

Bernier quit the Tories and didn't really bring much of a constituency with him. That is at least in part because the Tories have bad memories of the last party split keeping them out of power. Plus his conversion to right wing populism is quite new, so the party was kind of directionless, caught between libertarianism and right wing populism until quite recently. Overall not a good recipe to pick up a lot of support.

But do you see the room in Canadian public life for such party? I mean, how much percent of electorate have such views as Bernier? Are right-wing populists and libertarians pose a real threat to Tories?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 12, 2019, 05:20:11 pm
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?

Bernier quit the Tories and didn't really bring much of a constituency with him. That is at least in part because the Tories have bad memories of the last party split keeping them out of power. Plus his conversion to right wing populism is quite new, so the party was kind of directionless, caught between libertarianism and right wing populism until quite recently. Overall not a good recipe to pick up a lot of support.

But do you see the room in Canadian public life for such party? I mean, how much percent of electorate have such views as Bernier? Are right-wing populists and libertarians pose a real threat to Tories?

I think after past split in the 90s, plus more recent one in Alberta, most on right have learned you cannot win unless you are united under one banner and most on right loathe Trudeau so desire to remove Trudeau trumps everything else.  Still there is a strong libertarian and right wing populist element in the party, after all Bernier nearly won, so if Scheer loses and doesn't stay on, its not out of the realm the next leader won't be in this mode, but no one I can think of at the moment who fits that mold and has high enough name recognition to win.

I also think once the results of right wing populism are seen, there will be less support down the line.  Libertarianism has never been really popular, but its support goes in waves.  When government gets too big and we have major financial issues, you can run on a small government platform and win, see Mike Harris in the 90s, but right at the moment I think the fatigue with austerity makes running on such platform a very tough sell.  Never mind in 90s, public concern was mainly about economic growth whereas now I think it is more about inclusive growth and libertarianism is good for creating growth, but almost all the gains tend to go to the rich and little trickle down to poor and middle class thus the Liberals would use class warfare limiting its ability to win.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on August 12, 2019, 06:29:45 pm

I think after past split in the 90s, plus more recent one in Alberta, most on right have learned you cannot win unless you are united under one banner and most on right loathe Trudeau so desire to remove Trudeau trumps everything else.  Still there is a strong libertarian and right wing populist element in the party, after all Bernier nearly won, so if Scheer loses and doesn't stay on, its not out of the realm the next leader won't be in this mode, but no one I can think of at the moment who fits that mold and has high enough name recognition to win.

*harrumph* *harrumph* Doug Ford, except that at this point his "high enough name recognition" isn't exactly of the winning sort...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 12, 2019, 09:00:05 pm

I think after past split in the 90s, plus more recent one in Alberta, most on right have learned you cannot win unless you are united under one banner and most on right loathe Trudeau so desire to remove Trudeau trumps everything else.  Still there is a strong libertarian and right wing populist element in the party, after all Bernier nearly won, so if Scheer loses and doesn't stay on, its not out of the realm the next leader won't be in this mode, but no one I can think of at the moment who fits that mold and has high enough name recognition to win.

*harrumph* *harrumph* Doug Ford, except that at this point his "high enough name recognition" isn't exactly of the winning sort...

True, but if Tories gain in every province save Ontario, but lose ground there, I doubt they will be stupid enough to choose him as leader.  There may be some members who care about ideology more than electability, but you have to be pretty oblivious to whats going on to think Doug Ford could win nationally.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Vosem on August 12, 2019, 11:44:03 pm
If (as I gather polls are currently showing) the Tories gain in literally every province but decline or stay about still in Ontario, and Liberals are reduced to a minority government, would Scheer stay around as leader? It'd be pretty easy to point at the improvement and just blame Ford. Or is the perception of Scheer as a non-entity already pretty set at this point? Who might even replace him -- would O'Toole be any better? (Or someone else)?

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces. It seems to me like hatred of Trudeau on the right might be strong enough to endanger ill will if Ford is blamed for Trudeau's survival, but that might just be my provincialism, since effects like this with Harper and leftist premiers weren't seen.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on August 13, 2019, 09:37:43 am
If (as I gather polls are currently showing) the Tories gain in literally every province but decline or stay about still in Ontario, and Liberals are reduced to a minority government, would Scheer stay around as leader? It'd be pretty easy to point at the improvement and just blame Ford. Or is the perception of Scheer as a non-entity already pretty set at this point? Who might even replace him -- would O'Toole be any better? (Or someone else)?

That's largely a question of expectations, and narrative (kind of like coaches in pro sports), so we won't really know until after the election. For example: before Trudeau's JWR debacle, I suspect  most Tories would have been happy with Scheer holding the Liberals to a minority. Now that Tories have been more or less tied with the Liberals for the past several months, expectations have risen and a Liberal minority would probably be perceived as Scheer fumbling a winnable election. My guess (emphasis on guess) is that if he will survive if he wins the most seats but the Liberals form government anyway, or if he holds the Liberals to a very weak minority, but he's gone if the Liberals win a stronger minority.

There's no obvious leader in waiting right now, which helps Scheer a little bit. Bernier had that spot before, but he's not an option anymore. O'Toole might be the most likely candidate, but again, we will have to see how the election shapes up before we can make a reasonable guess about new leaders.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on August 13, 2019, 12:37:38 pm

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces.

Actually there is a long history of unpopular provincial governments costing their federal cousins votes and seats in Canadian elections. In 1979 the extreme unpopularity of the rightwing Manitoba PC government under Sterling Lyon cost the federal PCs several seats and could have been the difference between the Joe Clark government surviving or losing power.

In 1997, the Nova Scotia Liberals were extremely unpopular - the federal Liberals went from holding all 11 federal seats in NS to holding zero of them!

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

The backlash against Mike Harris is widely seen as having contributed to the Liberals under Chretien sweeping Ontario in 1997 and 2000.

A backlash against Dalton McGuinty is seen as having cost the federal Liberals a lot of seats in Ontario in 2004 and 2006 and 2008 


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 13, 2019, 12:43:17 pm
If (as I gather polls are currently showing) the Tories gain in literally every province but decline or stay about still in Ontario, and Liberals are reduced to a minority government, would Scheer stay around as leader? It'd be pretty easy to point at the improvement and just blame Ford. Or is the perception of Scheer as a non-entity already pretty set at this point? Who might even replace him -- would O'Toole be any better? (Or someone else)?

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces. It seems to me like hatred of Trudeau on the right might be strong enough to endanger ill will if Ford is blamed for Trudeau's survival, but that might just be my provincialism, since effects like this with Harper and leftist premiers weren't seen.

It depends.  If the party loses seats, he is gone or if the gains are minimal, but if the Tories say win 140 seats but still fall short, I think most will say he is moving them in the right direction so get to stay on.  As for losses elsewhere but not Ontario meaning a minority, not necessarily as lets not forget Quebec since although the Tories aren't likely to lose ground there, the NDP has imploded there and the Liberals could easily scoop up most of those seats thus cancelling out losses in Western and Atlantic Canada.  

Reason McGuinty didn't leave after 2008 and 2011 is losses for Liberals were from coast to coast so you couldn't pinpoint it to one provincial leader, it was an overall shift thus the blame got laid on the federal leader.  If Scheer gains in every province except Ontario while loses ground there, it will be pretty obvious it was not a national swing, but it was because of Ford.  I doubt Ford will resign, but I suspect you will see more pushback from his MPPs and probably a high number of MPPs not running again in 2022 as well as perhaps even a few quitting to sit as independents or maybe even cross the floor to the Liberals (although skeptical about this, maybe one or two, but not sure that will even happen).  You could also see Elliott, Mulroney or others with leadership ambitions organize behind the scenes much like Paul Martin did in the 90s

As for replacement leader, no obvious one, but Erin O'Toole is one and perhaps some of the big names like John Baird or Peter MacKay who sat out might jump in this time.  It was widely expected whomever won in 2017 leadership race would be a caretaker leader since Trudeau would get a second term and then the next leader would be the next PM, so by 2023, Trudeau having been in office for 8 years and negative baggage that goes with that, I could see some who sat out last one jumping in this time.  Heck even Caroline Mulroney with all of Ford's troubles, might decide there is a better future in federal than provincial politics.  Likewise Gerald Detell is another dark horse to watch.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 13, 2019, 12:49:35 pm

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces.


In 1997, the Nova Scotia Liberals were extremely unpopular - the federal Liberals went from holding all 11 federal seats in NS to holding zero of them!

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

The backlash against Mike Harris is widely seen as having contributed to the Liberals under Chretien sweeping Ontario in 1997 and 2000.

A backlash against Dalton McGuinty is seen as having cost the federal Liberals a lot of seats in Ontario in 2004 and 2006 and 2008 

True enough although in case of Nova Scotia, Liberals took a big hit in 1997 throughout Atlantic Canada so many blamed it on EI changes more than unpopular Liberal government.

For BC in 1993 and 2000, NDP performed badly coast to coast so while BC NDP probably did hurt federal counterparts, it wasn't as obvious, however the case in 1997 was somewhat stronger as NDP bombed in the four largest provinces (hadn't ever done well in Quebec or Alberta at the point, while bad memories of Rae still persisted in Ontario), but they did okay in the smaller provinces.

Mike Harris was hard to say as while unpopular, Ontario had a perfect split on the right whereas provinces west of it saw most of the right wing vote go to Reform/Alliance, and provinces of east of it mostly to PCs so many blamed vote splitting on right more for Liberal dominance as after all nearly 4 in 10 voted for a party on the right, but unlike other provinces, it was pretty much split down the middle.

McGuinty may have had a negative impact, but in all three cases Liberals did better in Ontario than they did nationally despite losing seats so some chalked it up to national swings.

So I agree Ford will hurt Scheer, but it depends on how blatantly obvious it is with the results.  If you see a swing towards Tories in Ontario, but just weaker than elsewhere, people will be able to claim reasons.  But if Tories make sizeable gains in every other province, but lose ground in Ontario than it will be more obvious.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 13, 2019, 01:35:23 pm
Kinda dumb they've decided to exclude Bernier from the debates when that Mainstreet poll literally just came out showing a tie in Beauce (i.e. the party has a chance at winning seats... or by "seats", they mean they have to have a chance at winning more than one?)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 13, 2019, 03:09:50 pm
Kinda dumb they've decided to exclude Bernier from the debates when that Mainstreet poll literally just came out showing a tie in Beauce (i.e. the party has a chance at winning seats... or by "seats", they mean they have to have a chance at winning more than one?)

I hear they've asked them to name 3-5 seats they can win before they make the final decision, but you'll have to fact check me.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Poirot on August 13, 2019, 04:20:56 pm
It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: VPH on August 13, 2019, 04:25:31 pm
It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287)

I wonder what seats Bernier sees as the most winnable for the PPC. Maybe some of the former Tory MPs? I don't think anybody else has a chance at winning aside from Bernier, but maybe some can hit 10% of the vote, which would be doubtful for debate qualification.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on August 13, 2019, 06:35:42 pm

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

For BC in 1993 and 2000, NDP performed badly coast to coast so while BC NDP probably did hurt federal counterparts, it wasn't as obvious, however the case in 1997 was somewhat stronger as NDP bombed in the four largest provinces (hadn't ever done well in Quebec or Alberta at the point, while bad memories of Rae still persisted in Ontario), but they did okay in the smaller provinces.

Actually, I seem to recall that the Harcourt government *was* beset by enough controversy by 1993 so as to affect federal results--which together with Rae in Ontario, made for a 1-2 whammy that almost obliterated the federal NDP.  (Whereas in Saskatchewan, the only province with a "popular" NDP provincial government, they kept 5 of the 9 seats they were able to salvage nationwide.)

It's a wonder that DL didn't mention the NDP in 1993--it wasn't all about Audrey McLaughlin's inadequacy; in fact, that is *the* classic case of unpopular provincial governments crippling the federal party.

Also, in 1988, the messy collapse of the provincial NDP government in Manitoba adversely affected the party's federal results, with two of their longtime central Winnipeg strongholds falling to the Liberals.  (Which brings us to an inverse matter: that of the federal Liberals in 1988 being *boosted* by popular provincial parties--Carstairs-mania in Winnipeg, and the Peterson government in Ontario, especially)


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Vosem on August 13, 2019, 10:06:25 pm

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces.

Actually there is a long history of unpopular provincial governments costing their federal cousins votes and seats in Canadian elections. In 1979 the extreme unpopularity of the rightwing Manitoba PC government under Sterling Lyon cost the federal PCs several seats and could have been the difference between the Joe Clark government surviving or losing power.

In 1997, the Nova Scotia Liberals were extremely unpopular - the federal Liberals went from holding all 11 federal seats in NS to holding zero of them!

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

The backlash against Mike Harris is widely seen as having contributed to the Liberals under Chretien sweeping Ontario in 1997 and 2000.

A backlash against Dalton McGuinty is seen as having cost the federal Liberals a lot of seats in Ontario in 2004 and 2006 and 2008 

Yes, I know that provincial government popularity or lack thereof often affects federal results in Canada. (While the reverse seems to happen somewhat less often and not be as strong). My question was whether a federal election result had ever brought down a provincial premier? Like, let's say there are large Conservative gains in every province but large losses in Ontario, and as a result Trudeau is reelected with a bare minority government. Would there be pressure on Ford to step aside? And has anything like that happened before?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 14, 2019, 12:43:17 am
It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287)

I wonder what seats Bernier sees as the most winnable for the PPC. Maybe some of the former Tory MPs? I don't think anybody else has a chance at winning aside from Bernier, but maybe some can hit 10% of the vote, which would be doubtful for debate qualification.

Steven Fletcher's riding? He could potentially get 10-15%.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on August 14, 2019, 06:03:56 am
Also, in 1988, the messy collapse of the provincial NDP government in Manitoba adversely affected the party's federal results, with two of their longtime central Winnipeg strongholds falling to the Liberals.  (Which brings us to an inverse matter: that of the federal Liberals in 1988 being *boosted* by popular provincial parties--Carstairs-mania in Winnipeg, and the Peterson government in Ontario, especially)


Speaking of 1988, the PCs were damaged by unpopular provincial governments in Saskatchewan and (in Socred guise) BC--and in both cases, the federal NDP gains reflected their provincial status as OO and governments-in-waiting...


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: lilTommy on August 14, 2019, 06:18:11 am
It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287)

I wonder what seats Bernier sees as the most winnable for the PPC. Maybe some of the former Tory MPs? I don't think anybody else has a chance at winning aside from Bernier, but maybe some can hit 10% of the vote, which would be doubtful for debate qualification.

Steven Fletcher's riding? He could potentially get 10-15%.

Possibly Etobicoke North with Renata Ford, She could pull a good solid chunk of that Ford nation vote, likely not much more then 25% though, eh?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: c r a b c a k e on August 14, 2019, 07:25:15 am
Could the PPC inherit the Wildrose Party. Voters in Alberta?


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 14, 2019, 08:57:14 am
Could the PPC inherit the Wildrose Party. Voters in Alberta?

Probably more likely to get voters who voted for the Freedom Conservative Party this year.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: The Saint on August 14, 2019, 08:58:28 am
What's a rough estimate on where PPC stands now?  Polls seem to be all over from a low of 1% to a max of 5%.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on August 14, 2019, 09:08:54 am
What's a rough estimate on where PPC stands now?  Polls seem to be all over from a low of 1% to a max of 5%.

Polling averages have them around 3% or so.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: cp on August 14, 2019, 11:34:24 am

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces.

Actually there is a long history of unpopular provincial governments costing their federal cousins votes and seats in Canadian elections. In 1979 the extreme unpopularity of the rightwing Manitoba PC government under Sterling Lyon cost the federal PCs several seats and could have been the difference between the Joe Clark government surviving or losing power.

In 1997, the Nova Scotia Liberals were extremely unpopular - the federal Liberals went from holding all 11 federal seats in NS to holding zero of them!

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

The backlash against Mike Harris is widely seen as having contributed to the Liberals under Chretien sweeping Ontario in 1997 and 2000.

A backlash against Dalton McGuinty is seen as having cost the federal Liberals a lot of seats in Ontario in 2004 and 2006 and 2008  

Yes, I know that provincial government popularity or lack thereof often affects federal results in Canada. (While the reverse seems to happen somewhat less often and not be as strong). My question was whether a federal election result had ever brought down a provincial premier? Like, let's say there are large Conservative gains in every province but large losses in Ontario, and as a result Trudeau is reelected with a bare minority government. Would there be pressure on Ford to step aside? And has anything like that happened before?

As best as I can figure, the answer is no.

The only example I can think of doesn't really point to a clear causative relationship between the federal election *on its own* and a provincial election in which an incumbent loses. I'm thinking of the 1993 federal election and the subsequent 1994 Quebec provincial election.

The 1993 federal election saw the Liberals returned to power with a majority. But in Quebec the Bloc Quebecois won 54/75 seats. The following year the incumbent Quebec Liberal government was defeated by a resurgent Parti Quebecois (leading to the 1995 referendum).

On the face of it, you can make a case for the 1993 election contributing to the poor performance of the PLQ in 1994: the BQ surged ahead, the Liberals in the province were reduced to a rump. In reality, though, Robert Bourassa's (provincial) administration had been beset by problems for years. The 1993 election didn't cause the PLQ's collapse so much as it foretold what was already quite apparent.


Still, this provides some useful perspective on what may happen to Ford. If his premiership continues to lurch from problem to problem every month it will be harder for him to shake off any criticism he might face for ostensibly undermining the federal Tories this year. His subsequent defeat might not be *caused* by resentment over a disappointing Scheer performance, but it probably won't help things.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on August 14, 2019, 11:57:35 am
If the federal Tories have a really disappointing performance in Ontario and its interpreted as being largely due to a backlash against Doug Ford - it will not in and of itself cause a revolt against his leadership. First of all there really is no mechanism for the Ontario PCs to ditch him while he is premier. The only way would be if the entire cabinet resigned and threatened to vote non-confidence in him and force a snap election...very unlikely.

Now if the Tories not only do badly in the federal election but they also continue to poll very badly and maybe get crushed in some byelections - it will cause more and more discontent - and if Doug Ford was a more conventional politician with some loyalty to his party - he might take a walk in the snow and resign so his party has a better chance of winning in 2022 under a new leader. But Ford is none of those things. he is like Trump in that he doesnt give a damn about his party - its all about him. If he can't be leader than he really doesnt care about whether the next Premier is some PC hack or Andrea Horwath!

I predict that no matter how much unrest there is - Ford would act like Greg Selinger and dig in his heels and absolutely refuse to go and would insist on leading the Tories in 2022 - damn the torpedoes.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 14, 2019, 12:23:06 pm
If the federal Tories have a really disappointing performance in Ontario and its interpreted as being largely due to a backlash against Doug Ford - it will not in and of itself cause a revolt against his leadership. First of all there really is no mechanism for the Ontario PCs to ditch him while he is premier. The only way would be if the entire cabinet resigned and threatened to vote non-confidence in him and force a snap election...very unlikely.

Now if the Tories not only do badly in the federal election but they also continue to poll very badly and maybe get crushed in some byelections - it will cause more and more discontent - and if Doug Ford was a more conventional politician with some loyalty to his party - he might take a walk in the snow and resign so his party has a better chance of winning in 2022 under a new leader. But Ford is none of those things. he is like Trump in that he doesnt give a damn about his party - its all about him. If he can't be leader than he really doesnt care about whether the next Premier is some PC hack or Andrea Horwath!

I predict that no matter how much unrest there is - Ford would act like Greg Selinger and dig in his heels and absolutely refuse to go and would insist on leading the Tories in 2022 - damn the torpedoes.

Unless Scheer resigns as Ford with his big ego I could see running federally.  The guy really has no sense of reality and in fact while the boos at the Raptors victory parade were not a shock to most, they were to him suggesting he was disconnected how unpopular.

Nonetheless you are right, despite unpopularity, often leaders stay on.  It was pretty obvious with both Wynne and Selinger they were going to lose, yet both insisted on staying on so lots of leaders out there don't know when to quit.  Heck even with Harper it was pretty clear he was not going to win a majority in 2015 and that if he fell short of a majority, the Liberals and NDP would gang up to defeat him on the throne speech, but he still stayed on thinking he could somehow pull off a majority or the supply and confidence between NDP and Liberals would never materialize.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DL on August 14, 2019, 02:08:34 pm
Ford he would have to be even more delusional than rumoured to think he could ever be federal Tory leader. If Scheer loses it will be largely because of Ford's extreme unpopularity in Ontario - so how much of a death wish would federal Tories have to be to pick as their federal leader the man whose incompetence and unpopularity were singularly responsible for them losing the election...Even if Ford were popular - the fact he is the guys speaks ZERO French and Quebec ridings get a weighted 24% of the vote in a CPC leadership contest.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 14, 2019, 02:12:57 pm
Ford he would have to be even more delusional than rumoured to think he could ever be federal Tory leader. If Scheer loses it will be largely because of Ford's extreme unpopularity in Ontario - so how much of a death wish would federal Tories have to be to pick as their federal leader the man whose incompetence and unpopularity were singularly responsible for them losing the election...Even if Ford were popular - the fact he is the guys speaks ZERO French and Quebec ridings get a weighted 24% of the vote in a CPC leadership contest.

He wouldn't win, but he is so delusional he may believe he can.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 14, 2019, 02:35:08 pm
If the federal Tories have a really disappointing performance in Ontario and its interpreted as being largely due to a backlash against Doug Ford - it will not in and of itself cause a revolt against his leadership. First of all there really is no mechanism for the Ontario PCs to ditch him while he is premier. The only way would be if the entire cabinet resigned and threatened to vote non-confidence in him and force a snap election...very unlikely.

Now if the Tories not only do badly in the federal election but they also continue to poll very badly and maybe get crushed in some byelections - it will cause more and more discontent - and if Doug Ford was a more conventional politician with some loyalty to his party - he might take a walk in the snow and resign so his party has a better chance of winning in 2022 under a new leader. But Ford is none of those things. he is like Trump in that he doesnt give a damn about his party - its all about him. If he can't be leader than he really doesnt care about whether the next Premier is some PC hack or Andrea Horwath!

I predict that no matter how much unrest there is - Ford would act like Greg Selinger and dig in his heels and absolutely refuse to go and would insist on leading the Tories in 2022 - damn the torpedoes.

At least Selinger had the good grace (or was forced to?) hold a leadership election, even if he was a candidate in it.



Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 14, 2019, 02:37:57 pm
It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287)

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: DC Al Fine on August 14, 2019, 02:56:57 pm
It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287)

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.

I guess some regional crosstabs or a riding poll could do it, but I agree it's completely ridiculous. Especially with past precedent; May was in a similar boat in 2008 and they still let her into the debates.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 14, 2019, 03:37:12 pm
If Bernier were included, the question is who would it benefit and who would it harm.  I think it could go two ways:

1.  Bernier performs well and eats into Conservative vote thus creating vote splits to help the Liberals win

2.  Bernier looks like a total nutcase making Scheer appear quite moderate thus Liberal attacks that Scheer is too extreme ring hollow and Scheer is able to win over some of the Blue Liberal/Red Tory voters who are upset with Trudeau but weary of Scheer.

So really it could benefit or hurt either of the two main parties.  He is not a greater debater in English, but he doesn't come across as crazy.  However if you check the twitter feeds of most of his candidates, his party is full of pretty much every right wing nutbar you can fine.  Part of that could be vetting as party doesn't have the tools to vet as well, but also his dog whistles do seem to appeal to that demographic.  In addition perhaps the fact his party has zero chance at winning, candidates are less restrained whereas with more serious parties, candidates know a dumb comment on twitter can hurt them and party nationally so they don't put out whatever comes to their mind.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on August 14, 2019, 04:23:09 pm
It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287)

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.

Very few sites seem to have beauce as competitive, but lots have it one way or the other, so they really are just making it up.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: mileslunn on August 14, 2019, 05:47:40 pm
It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287)

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.

Very few sites seem to have beauce as competitive, but lots have it one way or the other, so they really are just making it up.

Mainstreet research showed PPC and CPC tied in Beauce, but with riding polls not having a great track record, tough to know.  Beyond that one, I don't expect them to win elsewhere.  Cornelius Chisu was an unknown backbencher so don't expect him to have any impact and Gurmant Grewal was over a decade ago and riding has changed a lot since so doubt he will have much impact either.  Steven Fletcher won't win, but he may create strong enough splits to allow the Liberals to hold the riding as right now I have that one leaning Tory, but local factor could save Liberals.  For Renata Ford, she will probably have one of the better showings, but considering how poorly the Tories normally do here, I expect Kirsty Duncan to hold the riding without too much difficulty.


Title: Re: Canadian Election 2019
Post by: adma on August 14, 2019, 05:52:12 pm