Talk Elections

Senate Races:
AZ: Sinema 46% McSally 46%
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-arizona-senate-poll-10-31-2018
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 38%
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-indiana-senate-poll-10-31-2018
MO: McCaskill 43% Hawley 43%
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-missouri-senate-poll-10-31-2018
TN: Bredesen 41% Blackburn 50%
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-tennessee-senate-poll-10-31-2018
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 51%
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-north-dakota-senate-poll-10-31-2018


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-trump-approval-remains-high-in-senate-battleground-states

Huh, thats...um, rather anticlimactic

I AM PSYCHIC.

Donnelly lives!!!

N U T at those Indiana numbers!!!

Air Claire still tied...

Bredesen and Heitkamp are done.

McSally can't lead even in a FOX poll.

Haha, remember when 2016 told us to wait for this poll for IN? Rest look about right.

Maybe Nate Silver had a point rating Indiana as Likely D. :)

I expected worse, to be honest. I’m REALLY liking the Indiana numbe in particular.

Anyway, this looks about right. ND/TN are safe R and AZ/MO are toss ups. IN looks a bit too gaudy for Dems though.

That's a lot of undecideds.

Sticking with my prediction of Dems gaining NV/AZ, Pubs gaining ND for a Dem net gain of one.

Most of these numbers look believable, although I have my doubts that Donnelly is leading by that much. Glad that Hawley isn't ahead; Missouri remains a pure tossup.

I'm speechless at Indiana! But I would be very surprised if Donnelly did better then Sinema.

all those Republicans will overperform. McSally will win by around +4, Braun will probably win by at least +2, Hawley will win by +6, Blackburn and Cramer will win by double digits.

The only way I could maybe buy this is if the undecideds are R-leaning in MO/IN and D-leaning in AZ, because there’s no way that AZ is a Toss-up if Donnelly is leading by that much and McCaskill is tied with Hawley, and vice versa.

Guess people were writing off McCaskill and Donnelly a little too soon (again.) MO/IN are still Toss-Ups, but Donnelly is more likely to survive than McCaskill. Heitkamp might be recovering a bit, but it's definitely too little too late. Pretty sure that if Sinema was losing ground in the polls, that's stopped by now.

Not bad.  A D+1 result in the Senate is still very much in play.  Looking at the Trump approvals by state, Arizona seems too bullish on Trump and Indiana seems too bearish on Trump.

The IN poll is garbage (WAY too high undecideds). The rest are not very revelatory.

Wasn't Claire down the last Fox MO poll? If so, this is a pretty good result for her.

It really doesn’t work like that.

Nah, the previous one was a tie as well.

Indiana does seem to be unrealistic. I can see Donnelly leading, but not by that margin. The NBC/Marist poll is probably closer to the truth. The other polls, however, do seem very reasonable. Blackburn and Cramer are virtually guaranteed to win at this point, while Sinema and McCaskill each have a 50-50 shot. McCaskill's prospects actually appear to be a little better than I thought, though I have never written her off completely.

I hope these are the real final numbers on November 6

AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%




note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!

You seem very confident about these races. While I would not be surprised if Blackburn and Cramer win by double digits, I highly doubt that Hawley, Braun, or McSally will receive an absolute majority, let alone win by more than 3-4 points.

A 50 50 Senate looks like the most likely outcome. Fundamentals win again

Imagine trying to extrapolate polling error from a December special election in Alabama to every poll nationally.

Well who knows, maybe it's a legit strategy

They also polled NV: Heller +5

/s

You know, I don't mind you thinking R's will sweep all these races. But Hawley winning by 7 is stuff of hacks.

LOL, that wouldn't even surprise me if it was true.

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

I got excited about the IN margin until I saw Donnelly at 45%. Damn.

Maybe those Chnage Research polls from Indiana weren't so craptackular after all.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily

lmao!

Young won whites no college by 15%.

I don’t see AZ voting seven points to the right of IN just because Donnelly is the incumbent, and I highly doubt that Republicans have the same chance of winning AZ as MO.

With this type of clairvoyance, why are you wasting time on this forum and not winning the lottery daily?

Should have polled WV

That's not what I'm seeing on the CNN exit polls. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/indiana/senate

They show that Young was actually +26 (60-34) with whites no degree and +15 (55-40) with white college graduates. So, an 11-point difference.

maybe I am winning the lottery daily. You don't know me

+1 for use of “clairvoyance”

You're right.  I mistakenly looked at the overall non-college vote and not the white non-college vote.

Would be nice to see a D+1 but I think 50:50 is probably best case scenario.  Heitkamp looks unlikely to survive, and unfortunately, it looks tough for Bredesen.  We'll have to hope for flips in Arizona and Nevada--and then look to a special election in 2019.  Still, it's looking better than a couple of weeks ago.

Regarding Indiana, the suburban vote is VERY pro-Donnelly.  Assuming he wins IN-05, then I'll bet my assets that Danny O'Connor wins in OH-12.

Surprised Donnelly is up by 7.

Trump's approval looks too high in these polls.

Donnelly leading by 7 seems like a real stretch, even if it is extremely reassuring that he's still in it. McCaskill's tie isn't great, but at least she isn't down. She might still be in it too. In spite of those two making dumb ads that denigrate the Democratic base, we need them in the Senate. Arizona kind of looks weird to me. It's possibly realistic but I'm fairly certain that it will be voting to the left of Missouri and Indiana at the very least. Heitkamp is undeniably toast though.
Even with her expected loss, it would still make my night for Democrats to either not lose any seats, or even gain one. That's indicative of a good night overall for the House and gubernatorial races too. Please let this happen!

Blackburn isn't up 9

yeah I believe that she's probably up by high double digits

5 was by Vox Populi

i feel like you might explode on nov 6

yeah, with joy at all the Republican victories when we hold the House and massively expand our lead in the Senate

Considering the expected Democratic performances throughout the rest of the rust belt, are people really surprised to see Donnelly with such a healthy lead?  I don't expect him to win by 7 but I could easily see a 4 or 5 point win happen.

Looks at IN, TN, AZ. Guess #trashdamentals weren't so trash after all.

I;m with them. I sure wish the Senate polling looked like the Gubernatorial polling in these midterms...

If I had an option to either take that or leave it, I would so take that in a heartbeat. I am afraid McCaskill will lose. I'd say most likely at the moment is Rs pick up ND and MO, and Dems pick up NV and AZ. But Rs have a chance at AZ/MT/IN (although I think Dems are a bit favored in each of them).

I don’t quite think FL is lost for Rs yet, but I pretty much agree with this. ND > MO > IN > MT > FL > AZ is how I would rank them, although the last three are debatable.

Interesting, results quite a bit left of where I was expecting for a Fox poll.

Damn it :(

Love the Indiana numbers, was hoping for a Tennessee miracle

I would not be too thrilled about the AZ CNN polls.

On the CNN poll, Simema down four points from her last CNN poll.  She is down two points from the last Fox poll.

I know everyone says “early voting numbers don’t matter” and the at might be accurate in other states but in AZ early voting is 80% of the election and as much of a proud dem in AZ that I am, we aren’t doing so good.

meanwhile...back in 2016

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=248408.0

Thread: IN-Monmouth: Bayh +6


"Oh, what a relief.  I've been concerned that this one was a goner."

"Nice! Bayh has only lost 1 point in two months regardless of his crappy campaign."

"If Young loses this (which I think is likely), I hope he runs against Donnelly in 2018. "

"Clearly, people were engraving Bayh's tombstone a bit prematurely. He's not a lock by any means, but it's clear that Young can't count on Trump to pull him over the finish line."


"Bayh's favorable are still higher even after all the crap that's come out about him. That family name is gold in Indiana.

Bayh is beating Young by 10 points in the 50+ range and only 2 points in the 18-49 range."

"Bayh is more likely, so I guess tilt dem. This poll does not match other info, especially since I've heard internals on both sides show a tight race. "



Reality: Young 52.1% Bayh 42.4% Brenton 5.5%     

BRAUN WILL WIN...and so will many other GOP candidates

That poll was almost a month out, this one is a little over a week out--in the world of politics that's an eternity's difference and as such the two aren't really comparable, and this is a generally right-leaning poll while Monmouth was left-leaning.

Though I still think 50/50 Indiana is gone we're not going to see this poll end up 15+ points to the left of the result.

AZ-08 AZ-08 AZ-08

how many times does this need to be said

Anybody wanna guess who NYC Millenial Minority is masquerading as? Also, what are the chances that they're some random white straight guy lurker?

Wrong, CNN said Sinema lead Early Vote 54-43 and Marist said 51-47. Both of these Polls are just pure FANTASY.

GOP currently has a 116K Ballot Advantage in AZ. For starters for Sinema to be tied in the Early Vote she would need to have NPA Voters 70-30 in her favour. That is not happening, no way. ZERO Chance. Even if Sinema holds D's in Early Voting 94-6 and McSally holds Republicans let's say 88-12 Sinema still would need NPA Voters to break her way 68-32 or something like that.

So, the notion that Sinema is leading EV is completely Baloney.

FWIW, in the NYT/Siena poll, if you look at the microdata you can see how people with different party registrations who said they early voted voted, to see how they came up with McSally leading early voters. Caveat being that this is a small sample size, but if you want to actually see how they got their #s, you can see.

Counting unweighted #s of people, out of 178 people in the poll who said they early voted, 69 (39%) were registered Rs, 58 (33%) were registered Ds, and 51 (29%) were registered Ds.

The registered Ds split their vote 49-7-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Rs split their vote 8-59-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Indepents/NPAs split their vote 32-18-1 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)

In percentage terms, that is Sinema winning registered Ds 84%-12%, McSally winning registered Rs 86%-12%, and Sinema winning registered Independents/NPAs 63%-35%.

And overall, that comes out to Sinema winning the early voters 50%-47%.

Then if you apply the NYT/Siena polls weighting, that gets you to Sinema leading among early voters 51%-45%.

Granted, this does not prove that Sinema is leading with early voters, and these are small sub-samples.  But this is how Sinema can be leading with early voters despite Rs having a registration advantage. And indeed, Sinema is handily winning voters with no party affiliation in the sample, which is how she can win even if there is an R registration advantage. Granted also the sample could be somewhat off, and it is quite possible that McSally could be winning early voters (but probably not by much). We have had several polls all with Sinema winning or competitive among the early vote subsample. That does suggest that despite party registration, Sinema will at least be fairly competitive in the early vote, and then we have to see what the election day vote is like.

You are just being deliberately obtuse or willfully blind, you are smart enough that there is no way that you do not understand this.

Party registration /= votes. Duh.

Sinema ain't winning Registered Independents/NPA by 63-35. That just isn't happening. The MOE for the Supsample of Early Voters is 10. That tells quite a lot

I'm operating from a Raw Ballot Advantage where GOP leads by 116K. You are so full of crap.

Also CNN Poll said Sinema is leading McSally by 17 Points in Maricopa County. If that were true at all Sinema would have a landslide win like Napolitano in the Gov Race 2006.

-random
-white
-straight
-guy
-lurker


you are only 40% right. That is close to the percentage your side will have in the Senate after all is said and done. Coincidence?

Looks like I wasn't that far off lmaoo

Good job!

I don't want to hear sh**t anymore like "let's wait for Fox". lol they missed Indiana by 13 points. That's inexcusable.

Fox polls have this phenomenon where they get the Democratic candidate's vote % just right, but all the undecideds break for the Republican.

See: Doug Jones vs Roy Moore, and these 2018 polls

Indiana is a reverse Nevada in that polling tends to underestimate the GOP (whereas in Nevada, it underestimates the Democrats).

John Gregg went from leading in the polls by mid-single digits all throughout the post-Labor Day polling to being statistically tied with Eric Holcomb in the final two weeks.  We all know who ended up becoming Governor...