Talk Elections

Evers (D): 53%
Walker (R): 43%

Evers favorability is +11
Walker favorability is -12

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1050491239437660160

Wow.  Wasn't expecting that!

Baldwin's numbers aren't that different than the Marquette numbers, but this obviously is.

Lean D. This poll is something of an outlier and I expect the margin to thin out but to claim Evers isn't a solid favorite is ludicrous.

*Spews out Drink*

Yeah, Marist is looking heavily D-leaning this cycle for this state. It's as if they excluded WOW or only polled women. LMAO. This is why they aren't the Gold Standard.

Definitely think its closer to Evers +8 than +10 but I knew the Marquette poll was Republican-friendly. Considering Trump approval and those congressional ballot numbers (which aren't too bad for Republicans in a D-friendly midterm) Walker is in trouble, and he is an underdog at this point.

Keep this in mind before you start celebrating and getting complacent...

Even though Marist does not weight for education, the likely voter same is 44% college educated, which is only 4 points higher than what Marquette, who does weigh for education, has averaged the past two months.

So this is a bit higher than normal, but not radically higher to the point you have to question the sample.

They are only off Marquette's average by 4 points, totally within the realm of possibility.

Hot

When Walker loses can we make a thread with all of Hofoid's quotes?

Agreed. Plus there was no way Baldwin was ahead by double digits while Evers wasn't at least eeking out Walker by like three points.

If Walker loses, then people should honestly thank me for doing my part in reminding people to not be complacent and to go out there and vote. Also, that would mean that Dems are learning how to win the Midwest again. 

Great news

I feel like this has happend before. And what I mean by that is Marist showing Evers ahead and Marquette having a toss-up.

So if Walker loses, people should give the credit to some random Internet forum poster? Okay...

Marquette has been consistently Walker-friendly this entire election, not to mention they've been very "bouncy".

I’d say split the difference between this and Marquette for a good read of where the race might be

Hmm, something else happened before in terms of polling...in this very state.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?fips=55&class=3

"but 2016" might just be the funniest excuse this entire cycle by Nov 7th

This poll makes more sense with Baldwin's numbers/Walker's approvals (in other polls), although it seems a bit too optimistic.

Sweet. #Over50 too.

He probably wins comfortably but not in a landslide.

Kavanaugh effect: Evers up 24 points with women, trailing by 4 amongst men.

Evers winning 60% of college graduates, up a point amongst non-college grads.

Walker's time may be just about up.

Dems were always gonna won MI/PA/WI, I ts the red states OH and FL that matter for Congress

I mean, just take the average. Evers +5 or 6. That seems about where it's been in most polls lately.

Definitely a bit Democratic-friendly (okay, maybe more than a bit), but one thing is consistent: Walker is underperforming the GCB in both polls (the Marquette poll was R+3, he was up 1, this poll is D+6, Evers is up 10), which is terrible news for Walker. I don't see how more Republicans turn out in a year like this. I think I'm ready to call this race Lean D. It's too soon to count Walker out, but he's clearly down in the average, and it says something that a poll showing him up just 1% is considered a very good poll for him.

Evers will win 51-49%

It's like they saw Marquette's poll and said "The F- you don't!".

At least we know they aren't herding.

Please, oh please, be true!

Seems a bit over, but the crosstabs do check out. My main worry about certain bits of the Midwest is that they got 2016 really wrong, but hopefully complacency doesn't hit again.

FiftyThirtyEight gives Marist an A rating in reliability. Same with MU. It's crazy how MU has been the only pollster showing Walker leading.

These polls are confusing, but Evers is definitely going to win!

My guess- Evers +6

Remember that (D)allet beat Sc(R)enock 56%-44%.

Someone with access to poll entries should enter this poll.

Um Michigan and Pennsylvania have quite a few battleground districts this year.

Don't count on it. It's a great poll for the Dems so it'll take till Halloween to put in.

Eh, there are quite a few red flags with this polls, as has already been noted. The use of RDD instead of the voter file it particularly problematic. Also note that despite having been released later, this poll is actually older than the Marquette one.

The best guess is that the truth lies somewhere between the two polls, but sadly probably closer to Marquette.

Either Marquette or Marist is going to look really stupid in a few weeks. Or maybe even both.

Uh, no. Walker could very well lose, but definitely not by 10, lol. Then again, Marist sure has shown very interesting numbers this year, especially in the Midwest.

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1050508075252236288

Also Marist weighs by income in place of education.

https://twitter.com/LeeMiringoff/status/1050557068837412864

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1050559327130583040

Evers won't win by 10, but he's favored to oust anti-union warrior Walker. Evers by 5 in the end would be my prediction.

yes I'm sure some geek on the us election atlas dot com forums is this integral to a major big money political campaign

get over yourself

Oh, that's interesting. Then it seems they're probably about equal in quality (although the fact that the Marquette poll is more recent remains).

That's US Election Atlas Dot ORG Slash FORUM, actually.

I just hope the next MU poll doesn't show Walker leading even more. Then, that's when I'll be concerned. Fifty Thirty Eight gives MU Law and Marist both A ratings, so I'm not sure which one I should believe as they are equal in reliability.

Throw them in the average. Weight the Marquette one a little more because of better methodology and recency, but not much more.

I doubt that they'll have Walker doing better, unless the environment shifts in favor of the Republicans again near the end of October. Hopefully, if they find Walker behind again, Democrats won't get complacent.

JUNK POLL!

And far from their only one. Marist is straight garbage.

Always trust Marquette in Wisconsin.