Talk Elections

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-races-gop-up-in-texas-tennessee-dems-up-in-arizona-new-jersey-cbs-news-poll/

Blackburn 50
Bredesen 42

looks right

lol at people who still believe this is a complete toss-up.

Taking a position on Kavanaugh was a mistake.

Possibly. We have all been predicting Rs would come home in Tennessee in the end for months, though.

This is exactly what many of us were afraid of, and looks like we were right.

About time to move this to Lean R IMO.

It's like TN is just too red?

Yep. Trump approval in this poll is 61-39. While Bredesen is getting a decent amount of Trump approvers, he isn't getting enough.

This is excatly what I was hoping for. Kavanaugh saved the Senate for Republicans.

inb4 IceSpear

It's hard to see how it mattered. I wonder how many of these respondents even knew he said he's support Kavanaugh. I don't doubt the Kavanaugh nomination itself is moving these numbers to Blackburn (since effectively Rs would be voting for a R man, not a R woman, with their vote.)

Tennessee is a Republican State after all. I don't think Blackburn will win by 8 but she will win. It will be more like the Corker vs Ford Senate Race so she wins 51-48 or 52-47.

As expected.  I never actually thought that Bredesen would win here in the end.

Don't forget John Raese was leading in October 2010 only for Manchin to win by 10. This isn't over yet.

Big difference being the Democrats in TN are mostly in the cemeteries, not the nursing homes.

Me neither. If I'm correct the last Democrat in the Senate from TN was former VP Gore.

I've to give Democrats credit though for finding a good Candidate similar like 2006 with Ford Jr. and making us to spent a lot of $$$ in TN, those $$$ would have gone to MO, IN, MT and ND.

I expect this kavanaugh bump to die down a bit before day, but blackburn still wins by about 4

Don't you find that a bit hilarious comparing Blackburn to Raese?

Blackburn has the edge currently, but I think the margin could narrow down and the race could be closer on Election Day.

Bayh-bayh. I’m sure Mike Beebe will make AR-SEN 2020 a Tossup, though.

I'm dumping astrology!

Expecting southern undecideds to rescue a Democrat is among the worst bets one can make.

Hard to say what's going on there.

I would not trust any polls that were conducted over the last days.

It will take another 1 or 2 weeks until there's a clearer picture again.

Also remember that SurveyMonkey/Axis poll that had Blackburn up 14 points a few months ago and then all the other polls showed Bredesen with a lead ?

Tennessee gonna Tennessee. The caveat of course being the YouGov is trash, but this is just more evidence of the need to create more states.

It feels like this race keeps swinging back and forth, 2 polls show Blackburn up and then 2 show Bredesen up. I’m gonna need to see more polls before I move this race out of Tossup. Bredesen is a strong candidate, with a strong campaign. Don’t count him out but this race seems to be shifting towards advantage Blackburn.

It seems that Kavanaugh's confirmation as well as Bredesen's support to Kavanaugh that cost him the support of major Democratic Super PACs had a huge effect on this race.

I pretty much agree with this.

Polls are obviously messed up right now due to the Kavanaugh news cycle - Republicans are more enthusiastic right now than they will be in a month, when Kavanaugh will be a distant memory and healthcare will likely dominate the headlines. There's no reason to take any one poll as gospel at any time, but especially not one taken right now.

This would explain why Bredesen's numbers have taking the turn for the worst the last couple of public polls.

Bear in mind that a lot of the fluctuation in polls could be due to disagreement among pollsters of what the electorate is likely to look like - Tennessee is typically uncompetitive statewide and pollsters have far less experience modeling the electorate in the state, especially in a midterm election where turnout differentials are poised to vary.

The race does appear to be breaking away from Democrats. Bredesen likely needs a new line of attack or a sizeable shift in the environment (possible with the confirmation drama over).

And to think all the abuse I took here over the past year for saying exactly this would happen. Sadly, I will now accept my accolades.

Congrats Sen. Blackburn.

Bredesen goes Bayh Bayh as expected.

I could care less. It wouldn't even be a majority with a corporatist hack like Bredesen who cut healthcare and supports Kavanaugh. Beto would be an actual democrat in the senate(not like Bernie, but he would be decent and certainly 10x better then Bredesen).

You do realize that even though Bredesen is a conservative Democrat, him winning would give Schumer the gavel, which means Democrats could control who gets hearings for judicial appointments?

This is a lean Blackburn race.

Yes that's why Im pinning my hope on Beto so we win AZ, NV, TX while losing ND giving us a net gain of 2 and control of the senate.. He's polling better then Bredesen and Heitkamp in the last few days. He's not favored right now but neither are Bredesen and Heitkamp.

I saw this coming from a mile away, lol.

Another former Gov trying to run for Sen, apparently losing, as in case of Thompson and Strickland

Really? I saw it coming from a year away. :) If I recall correctly, you vehemently disagreed...

Bredesen said he would support Kavanaugh

Taylor Swift getting political? What a time to be alive.

https://twitter.com/lkherman/status/1049081965801029633

I knew it was too good to be true. Thanks Phil, you put up one hell of a fight, but it was for naught.

Nice to see my future home rejecting the lying Bredesen. 

You retiring there?

I retired in 2011.

Have to move to Tennessee to be closer to family support system for dealing with my Parkinson’s.  I really do not want to go.  I have lived in Arkansas for 41 years.  I feel as if I brought the GOP dominance to Arkansas.  

Defeating Bredesen will help discourage Beebe from running against Cotton.

Some of these TN polls are all over the place.

FOX 9/8 - 9/11  (Blackburn +3)

CNN 9/11 - 9/15 (Bredesen +5)

FOX 9/29 - 10/2  (Blackburn +5)

The 2 FoxNews Polls indicate only a 2pt Jump for Blackburn.   If you use the early September CNN poll as a starting point (rather than the Fox Poll) ... Bredesen would be at +2

That's what I noticed. In all honesty, there's actually a pretty high level of uncertainty in this race. It's not like AZ-SEN where Sinema is holding a small, yet consistent lead. If we have more polls coming out for this race and the pattern is more or less the same as this pattern, then we'll have to see Election Day. Simple as that.

White evangelicals in the state directly below them voted overwhelmingly for a pedophile republican. Not surprising to see TN voters coming home.

The Taylor Swift endorsement will mean at least a 53-46 Bredesen win.

Is this sarcasm or not? Because it’s hard to tell with you guys.

Taylor Swift has a 2-1 favourable rating and she will add at least an additional 5-10 points to Bredesen's margin.

That would be nice but I doubt it will help.

I wish, but no. It might help Bredesen a slight bit, though.

"A slight bit" ?

The Bredesen-Swift ticket is godlike and unbeatable !

The Taylor Swift endorsement is huge. Since TN is right next to Georgia, the Tswizzle endorsement megacoattails are boosting Abrams up bigly.

Hahahaha, this is too good.

Not to mention Taylor Swift is much hotter than Marsha Blackburn. That alone should narrow Bredesen’s gap with men by a couple points.

Bredesen will win easily now because there's nothing white women love more than Taylor Swift. The only red wave we'll be seeing in November is a massive sales increase for her fourth album.

The Taylor Swift endorsement could change things for TN Democrats.

t swizzle's impact is COMING

If LeBron didn't help Hillary in Ohio (when he had just given Cleveland its first pro sports title in half a century), Swift won't help Bredesen in Tennessee.  Especially since Republicans view the media/entertainment as being super liberal anyway.

Have Republicans finally embraced shrill women?

Hillary Clinton lost Ohio due to Ted Strickland

Republicans are going to turn on Taylor Swift on a dime for this. It's bizarre to see conservatives embrace Kanye West while they also probably jettison Taylor Swift. I can see idiots burning their smartphones with a Taylor Swift Spotify playlist queued up now. So this won't help Bredesen much, if at all. I'm glad she at least came out and endorsed him though. It says a lot about our political climate when a notoriously apolitical celebrity feels obligated to speak out. And it's even more intriguing when that celebrity is a diametric rival of Republican idol Kanye West.

As a Ye Stan, it's surreal. I like Kanye but he's gone crazy. I'll give him props for actually trying to accomplish results and not just troll though, since he has tried to make an impact on criminal justice issues and other things. I never cared for Taylor Swift but I thought her message was heartfelt and really putting her career ambitions aside to make the right but difficult choice to get involved.

I still think this race is a toss up. These R-leaning polls lately are driving me crazy. Are Americans really okay with what's been going on?

Yes.

Also, I honestly don't buy Kanye West's pursuit of criminal justice reform. If that were the case he should livid at Trump and his Justice Department in particular.