Talk Elections

Reposting on this topic as the previous thread got merged into Individual Politics for whatever reason, where it has been buried. Here's the old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=296391.0.

There is now a second official contender: last week former governor of Donetsk Serhiy Taruta announced his candidacy. He will almost certainly be mostly irrelevant, though he will likely contribute to siphoning votes away from Boyko, lessening his chances to make it to the final round.

Recent polling continues to indicate Tymoshenko and Hrytsenko as the top two, though Poroshenko appears to have rebounded slightly from last month to the low double digits, while 'wild cards' Vakarchuk and Zelensky continue to pull 8-10% each, suggesting either (but probably not both) could be a real contender.

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll

Tymoshenko    19.3
Poroshenko     11.9
Zelensky         11.8   (showman/actor)
Hrytsenko       10.9   (Civic Position Party)
Vakarchuk        8.4   (singer)
Boiko               8.1   (Opposition Bloc)
Rabinovych       7.5   (Life Party)
Liashko             6.7   (Radical Party)
Sadovy             4.2   (Lviv mayor)

I am for Boiko but I guess he will not make it into the second round.  Looks like Tymoshenko will make it into the second round and a cluster of candidates fighting to make it into second round to face her.

Zelensky's surge is interesting and shows the extent of the mood against conventional politics. 

There are ongoing talks between Boiko and Rabynovich about reunion. If Rabinovich isn't a nominee (and it's not clear that Zelenskiy will be candidate, either; his electoral base isn't the same with Boiko's, but some of Zelenskiy's voters will go that way), Boiko will be the single south-eastern candidate on the ballot and make it to the run-off.

A few more announcements this week.

My man Sadovyi is officially in, with the slogan of 'restoring confidence to Ukraine'. Also declared is the Agrarian party candidate Bezsmertny and the mayor of a tiny town Tereshchenko. I am doubtful either of the latter will break 1%, and Sadovyi looks like he's still stuck around 3-4%. Hopefully he runs a good campaign, but I am doubtful - Poroshenko has been working on smearing him for years now and I don't think he will get far.

Speaking of Poroshenko, he has recovered some in recent polling and now again looks like he has a decent shot at the second round. Ironically despite being so unpopular he might be one of the few candidates who could beat Tymoshenko there. Of course comparing the current hypothetical polls to reality, it depends on if a united opposition ticket emerges and what Vakarchuk and Zelenski decide to do.

I hope Tymoshenko is elected President

Latest polls, 28.09-16.10
https://www.unian.net/politics/10321353-novyy-prezidentskiy-reyting-timoshenko-v-liderah-zelenskiy-obognal-poroshenko.html
https://www.unian.net/politics/10321596-poroshenko-proigryvaet-vtoroy-tur-lyubomu-iz-sopernikov-opros.html

First round
Tymoshenko 18,9%
Zelensky (actor/comedian) 10,7%
Hrytsenko (former Defense Minister)  9.9%
Poroshenko 9.9%
Boiko (Opposition Bloc)  9.8% 
Liashko (Radical Party)  8%
Vakarchuk (singer) 7%

Run-offs:
Poroshenko 14.3% Hrytsenko 33.1%
Poroshenko 15.1% Tymoshenko 30.7%
Poroshenko 20% Boiko 20.2%


Some big news: government finally has reached an agreement with IMF. Under the agreement. Ukraine must raise gas prices for public, so i predict Poroshenko's ratings will fall further. Also Russia yesterday imposed sanctions on a lot of ukrainian individuals and companies, but it won't have big impact on elections, i guess. Maybe urge east-ukrainian elites to speed up their unification talks. Right now it seems there will be at lest two major east candidates: Boiko/Rabynovich/Vilkul from Opposition Bloc and young MP Muraev. Also Taruta (Donbass oligarch), but he is marginal candidate.

Thoughts about Zelensky surge and Vakarchuk falling in polls: both still haven't announced their campaigns, and while Zelensky commented this fact with jokes, Vakarchuk waited kinda too long. Everyone expected his announcement during big concert in Kiev (August), but instead he gave generic speech about "We all must do good things and don't do bad things". And he is competing with many candidates for western and central voters (educated, more urban and younger base) - Sadovy, Hrytsenko, even with Poroshenko.
Zelensky is more eastern candidate, where there is Boiko, but Boiko is weak candidate and Zelensky's base is younger. He has Kolomoyskiy's support (oligarch, now in fight with Poroshenko), new season of his show "Servant of the people" (in this series Zelensky, school teacher, suddenly became the president) will be streaming during final stage of elections and he is almost certainly to run.

Will the split in the Orthodox Church affect voters on the issues?

Boyko is in, with a unified OB-ZZ platform. Interestingly, this still doesn't look like it will be enough to give him a solid chance of making the second round, as Rabinovich's support has been collapsing for some time.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2018/11/17/7198528/

Poroshenko thinks it will help him. I don't know, hard to say, but i'll predict that economic issues will be more important.


And Akmetov's part of OB don't like it. Actually, Opppsition Bloc split yesterday.

Rabinovich support was collapsing because his former friend, Muraev, announced his bid. Now he is at 5%. Potentially, I think, Muraev can be the strongest east candidate. But we will see, maybe Akhmetov also will launch campaign of some of his supporters like Vilkul and east electorate divides on election day.

Lmao, Symonenko is running again. I thought the Communist party was banned?

New poll (IAP)

Tymoschenko (Fatherland) 19,3%
Zelensky (Servant of the Peolple, actor) 12,9%
Boyko (Opposition Platform-For Life) 11,6%
Poroshenko (Poroshenko's Bloc) 11,3%
Hrytsenko (Civil Position) 11,1%
Lyashko (Radical Party) 9,1%
Sadovyi (Self Reliance) 4,5%
Shevchenlo (UKROP) 4,2%
Muraev (Ours) 2,9%
Vilkul (Opposition Bloc 2,8%

In second round Tymoshenko wins against all candidates, except Zelensky and Hrytsenko


Also, we already have 8 registered candidates, of which real, and not technical candidates: 3 (Sadovyi, Muraev, Hrytsenko)

At this point I'm starting to come around to Zelensky. I'm not a fan of that sort of populism in general, but Ukraine might actually benefit from it, especially if the alternatives are members of the old oligarch class like Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.

I'm not sure if this is the right place to discuss it, but in early December CSIS had an event where a few experts or self-declared experts discussed the Ukraine's election. It got rather heated between two scholars, one who I believe is native Ukrainian (Taras Kuzio) and one who is very much American (Keith Darden). I felt Taras was quite rude and Darden handled himself better, but can't speak as to the content of their claims. I was wondering what people who are much more familiar with the country and the players would think. Link here (https://www.csis.org/events/ukraines-election-campaign). The other guest speaker there was Melinda Harring, who I heard in a subsequent CSIS podcast; she seems very bullish on Tymoshenko and it's looking like she is correct so far based on the polling.

I think Poroshenko is most likely under-rated in these polls.   He has access to resources as the incumbent and if the non-Poroshenko field is split between many candidates and no common opposition candidate energies I think Poroshenko should be better than even money to win re-election.

Ukraine Has 44 Presidential Candidates in All-time Record

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-s-44-presidential-candidates-set-all-time-record/4778722.html

Is the recent scandal involving Zelenky’s artistic property in Russia gonna hurt him in the polls?

Do candidates are planning to run the campaign among Ukrainian immigrants in Poland (and other EU member states)?

No, at all. Poroshenko's manufacture in Russia, Lipetsk didn't hurt him in 2014.

So, there are record-high number of registered candidates - 44 people, 4 women and 40 men. Between them: 16 MPs, former minister of defense, special forces colonel, two former heads of intelligence agency (SBU).

Based on the latest polls, list of main candidates:

TOP TIER
Volodymyr Zelensky, comedian, actor, TV-host and showman. Skyrocketed in latest polls, now he is the leader of the race. Clearly populist candidate, pro-western, but probably the least pro-western from pro-western candidates, with moderate position on many topics, like language or war in Donbass. Has deep connections to oligarch Kolomoysky.
Yulia Tymoshenko, MP, former prime-minister, old player in Ukrainian politics, leader of "Fatherland" party. Pro-western kinda populist candidate with primarily rural and old base. Dominated polls through 2017-2018, but now her chances are not so clear.
Petro Poroshenko, incumbent president, businessman, leader of BPP. His polling numbers are now better than 2 months ago (after the whole new church thing).

MIDDLE TIER
Yuriy Boyko, MP, former member of Yanukovich government. Pro-eastern candidate, now his chances are low because of disagreements between eastern clans, their parliamentary group (Opposition Bloc) has splitted. Has endorsements of such prominent figures as Lyovochkin, Medvedchuk, and probably has Russian support.
Anatoliy Hrytsenko, former defense minister, pro-western politician. Recently general attorney opened investigations against him (corruption during his career in Defense).
Oleg Lyashko, MP, populist candidate from rural north Ukraine, leader of "Radical party". Now it seems like he became puppet of influential oligarch Akhmetov. Interesting fact: Lyashko, despite his homophobic remarks, is gay.

LOW TIER
Oleksandr Vilkul, MP, pro-eastern candidate, has support from Akhmetov and Novinskiy.
Evgeny Muraev, MP and businessman, pro-eastern candidate from Kharkiv.  
Andryi Sadovyi, mayor of Lviv, pro-western candidate, leader of Self-Reliance party.

Has anyone actually seen Zelensky's TV show? What's it like? What's the tone? Is it comparable to the West Wing? To In the Thick of It?

Yeah, essentially a schoolteacher leads a liberal government that is viewed positively by the people due to his hard stance against corruption and the Administration’s honesty. It trashes career politicians, their masters’ the oligarchs, and nepotism. I haven’t seen West Wing, so maybe other people will have to fill in. If you’re so curious, it’s on Netflix right now for U.S. viewers called “Servant of the People”.

It was honestly pretty funny and chill. But to me the best star was the bodyguard and the diplomat’s advisor, not the President.

Also ,how deep are Zelensky’s ties to that oligarch? I thought he was relatively clean regarding corruption compared to at least Tymoshenko?

Well, of course he is clean regarding corruption, he has never been government official before) But his ties with Kolomoysky are very strong. He has been working on Kolomoyskiy's channel 1+1 for years, attacked in comedic sketches Kolomoyskiy's enemies. Now "Benya" (Kolomoyskiy's nickname) is the main supporter of Zelensky's campaign, even gave his bodyguards to Zelensky.

Full list of candidates:
https://www.rferl.org/a/meet-ukraines-presidential-candidates-2019/29756553.html

Some news
Today Andrei Sadovyi (mayor of Lviv, had 2-3% in polls) and Dmytro Gnap (minor candidate) dropped out from the race and announced their support towards Anatoliy Hrytsenko.


There are 3 ongoing HUGE scandals in Ukrainan politics.

1) It wasn't a big secret that Pororshenko and other government officials are involved in corruption schemes around military-industrial complex. But latest journalist investigationmade it clear that top managers of Ukrainian military-industrial complex and top Poroshnko's ally (and his friend for many years) partiipated in fishy schemes.
https://www.rferl.org/a/weeks-ahead-of-ukraine-vote-poroshenko-under-fire-over-smuggling-claim/29791859.html
Btw, in few days journalists will release second part of investigation.

2) Top officials from both Poroshenko's and Tymoshenko's parties in Kherson region were accused in organizing of killing anti-corruption activist Kateryna Handziuk. Speaker of regional legislature Manger, from Tymoshenko's party, was indicted.
https://112.international/article/who-is-who-in-acid-attack-murder-of-ukrainian-activist-handziuk-36970.html
However other two guys from Poroshenko's party, governor Hordeyev and his deputy Ryshchuk for now are clear from charges.

3) Constitutional Court (controlled by government) has killed major anti-corruption law, and public is angry.
https://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/constitutional_court_ruling_undermines_anti_corruption_achievements_in_ukra

:(  RIP FF

Not that I expected Sadovyi to go anywhere, and this is a responsible move from him. It would be great were Hrytsenko bumped back up into the top tier, I would take him over the top three. Endorsed by default for now.

Another major thing going on recently is the Rada failed to pass a major defense reform which would have brought the Ukrainian army up to NATO standards. This is a major embarrassment for the government.

How did that occur and what was the vote breakdown? Seems like an incredibly stupid thing to vote down such an essential legislation.

I'm not sure it was really that important. Haven't seen any articles about this in ukrainian press (maybe 1-2 articles). Usually when such measures don't pass, it means poor lobbying from authorities - if government want something pro-nato or pro-eu to pass, it can easily do this (see changes in constitution about goal to move to NATO and EU - recently government recruited constitutional majority for this)

Taruta has dropped out and endorsed Tymoshenko, and I've seen some argument that this will help her regain some credibility in the eastern parts of the country, though I think this is a stretch given her history and the limited appeal of Taruta in the first place.

Looking at polls i see - it's sure run-off with Zelenski as one of participants. The question is - who will be the second?

i hope after this election:

zelenski - president
tymoshenko - opposition
poroshenko - jail

Most of major candidates promised to prosecute Poroshenko) but he can easily escape to some western country, he has real estate in England and Spain.

This is probably the first and last time I will ever agree with a post you make.

How much trouble is Poroshenko in ? I know Putin & Co., HATE this man & would rather want a Putin ally inside Mariyinksy Palace.

There are no Putin's allies among leading candidates...

For some unknown reason, Poroshenko decided to attack (via his close ally and relative, Attorney General Lutsenko) current US Ambassador, Marie Yovanovitch.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/434875-top-ukrainian-justice-official-says-us-ambassador-gave-him-a-do-not-prosecute

Between other things, he accused head of NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau) and some MPs in working for Hillary Clinton during 2016 US election. They, with assistance of ambassador Yovanovitch, tried to damage Paul Manafort's reputation. If you read Trump's twitter, he mentioned this question several times in last days.

Really, I think it's stupid move by President Petro. He definitely doesn't like Yovanovitch, who criticized ukrainian government in the past, but accuse her of participation in crime and in conspiracy against Trump? He also hates NGO's and activists supported by Embassy, but are they that big of a threat? It's clear he tries to make alliance with Trump against State Department bureucracy, but
1) He himself supported Clinton in 2016. I doubt that Manafort's info was leaked without his authorization
2) What if Trump loses in 2020?

I wonder what the reasoning for this is. I doubt the support of people who are willing to believe the corruption in the GPO is all America's fault are going to put him over the top.

This week two debates should have occured, first with middle-tier candidates (Hrytsenko, Lyashko, Boyko), and second today - with Poro, Yulia and Zelenskiy. Only Hrytsenko has participated, so, basically, no debates. Maybe before second round?

Far-Right militias take roles as election observers, possible police clashes likely to occur (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-election-nationalists/out-of-the-police-cell-and-into-the-polling-station-ukraines-election-monitors-idUSKCN1RA1LL)
The PR moves against Ukraine would just be escalated if these militias cause even further problems.Ukrainian stability would not look good if the militias ballot-stuff their candidates in office.

Elections tomorrow!

Recent polls from the most credible pollsters:

Razumkov Centre, without undecided:
Zelenskiy - 24.8%
Poroshenko - 22.1%
Timoshenko - 14.8%
Boyko - 10.0%
Hrytsenko - 8.2%

Rating Group
Zelenskiy - 26.6%
Poroshenko - 17.2%
Timoshenko - 17.2%
Hrytsenko - 9.8%
Boyko - 9.5%


KMIIS
Zelenskiy - 27.6%
Poroshenko - 18.2%
Timoshenko - 12.8%
Boyko - 11.1%
Hrytsenko - 8.4%

Are Zelensky's ties with Kolomoysky too much worrying, policy-wise?
I see the oligarch has funded Tymoschenko and Poroshenko in the past...

I am for Boyko but I would be fine if Poroshenko wins re-election

Interesting choices, given that Boyko is one of the most pro-Russia candidates, and Poroshenlo - one of the most anti-Russia...

Yeah, and economically they are also very different, and culturally...

Isn't Boyko pretty liberal, in contrast to Proroshenko's religious nationalism?

Liberal in ethnic questions - yeah. Mainly it's about rights of Russian minority, but in recent years also about Hungarians. Historically, all minorities supported eastern parties, except for Crimeans and Poles, they supported Western parties.

In LGBT relations... I don't know Boyko's positions, but suspect he isn't very liberal. Poroshenko was pretty friendly to LGBT at first, but during this campaign he painted himself as conservative and "defender of family values". Between his allies, there are staunch LGBT-defenders and ugly homophobes.

Well, within the Ukraine context I am pro-Russia.  I am also pretty anti-Tymoshenko so I want Poroshenko to make it into the second round.   In many ways I like the status quo.  What I oppose the most is Ukraine joining NATO.  If Poroshenko can win perhaps the anti-incumbency feelings toward Poroshenko could somehow delay the vote to join NATO.

Voting will end 8pm Kiev time (1pm EST) which I assume exit polls will come out.  Donbas will not be voting of course but it seems Donbas residents who want to vote and travel to the areas controlled by the Ukraine government.

poroshenko and tymoshenko are both highly corrupted and who ever goes to second round will be kremlin's favorite. putin's propaganda will go hard after zelenski because they don't like to "rock the boat" and they probably already during this 5 years create deep ties with current regime.

How does this work ?

Are these people even on the lists of eligible voters ? How does Ukraine maintain population/voter information of people who are under Russian/separatist control ?

As at 16:00 (13:00 GMT), 45,01% of Ukrainians have already voted. The highest turnout in the central regions, including in the Vinnytsia, Cherkassy, Kiev regions. Almost all of the presidential candidates have already voted

Ukraine needs someone who will mercilessly break the power of the oligarchs and strike a unique, quintessentially Ukrainian geopolitical balance between Moscow and Brussels, while opposing Russia's territorial imperialism and the EU's cultural imperialism alike. None of the major candidates will do so, which is depressing. So I would vote for a nationalist candidate in the first round. And probably for Zelenskiy in the second round while holding my nose.

No idea.  I imagine the Ukraine government will some way to make this work as long as proper ID can be given.  Anything else is to admit that Donbas is not part of Ukraine which has to be a big no no.

Correct. Also, those Ukrainians who currently live in Russia have to travel to Finland, Kazakhstan or Georgia in order to vote.


Also, Mustafa Nayyem seems to leak some exit polls from different candidates. According to them Ze and Poroshenko goes to the 2nd round. Only exit polls from Ti shows her second.

The average (my veeeery quick estimation of it) will be around:
Ze ≈ 28%
Po ≈ 20%
Ti ≈ 15%

He also says there are rumors that Ze and Ti are negotiating/discussing/working together on some sort of cooperation/coalition.

https://t.me/mustafanayyem (you'll probably need Telegram app to open it, though...)

I still hope that Zelensky and Tymoshenko we will see in second round. In less than 5 minutes, we will get the results exit polls

Exit polls show that Zelensky and Poroshenko will make second round. I am very sad

The preliminary exit polls results (those who vote 08:00-18:00).


Ze 30,4%
Po 17,8%
Ti 14,2%


The 08:00-20:00 will be published in 3 hours.


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Here the exit poll from 112 and newsone tv-channels.
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And one from SOCIS:
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I don't know how good they usually are, but Timoshenko's chances seems really bad.

The results were rigged by the current President, Petro Poroshenko. I am personally convinced of this

don't worry, he's done in second round

I understand, but I would like to see President Tymoshenko, not a comedian Zelensky

This poll was conducted by Austrian "exit pollster" SORA, btw, who apparently also conduct them in Ukraine ...

https://twitter.com/sora_institut/status/1112406844184629254

Puppet of oligarch who had some shady deals in Russia and used tax havens vs oligarch vs oligarch. Ukraine at its finest.

If Tymoshenko’s party gets a majority this year, and if the Ukrainian people organize for the interest of Ukraine, you can probably weather this storm out. These flukes happen, it is always the responsibility of the people to not give up the search for justice no matter what happens electorally. Vote for her next election and ensure your people’s struggle since EuroMaidan isn’t co-opted and crushed by the thieves and cheaters behind the curtain.

She can easily win parliamentary elections.

I wonder, does Ukraine have a functioning impeachment policy for the presidency. How are constitutional balances faring since EuroMaidan if the runoff winner turns incompetent and malicious.

There is no law about impeachment now. Zelenskiy promised to introduce such law.

BTW:

Official turnout reports can be found here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp063pt001f01=719.html

Official results here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp300pt001f01=719.html

It looks as if turnout will end up between 65-70%, which is high for Ukraine standards.

1999 - 70%
2004 - 75%
2010 - 67%
2014 - 60% (but Donetsk and to some degree Luhansk had really low turnout)


2019 - ??? around 65% ???


I don't know if you can call it high, probably normal?

I guess a Zelensky vs Poroshenko runoff should see Zelensky with the edge.  But one cannot ever count the incumbent out.  I can see Poroshenko and the entire regime now turn all their energy in digging up dirt on  Zelensky.

RIP the Godmother of Ukrainian Corruption.

This is basically all there is to say. It's a sad day. But it was destined to be a sad day.

0.54% Counted, 26.5K Votes:

Zelensky: 7538
Tymoshenko: 4767
Poroshenko: 4479

They are actually starting to count votes now ? It is almost midnight in Kiev

Yeah, the link posted earlier is getting data now.

Also Poroshenko is now ahead by about 20 votes, but this is all very early...and slow.

Ukraine: 1.1% of Polls, 65.3K Votes

Zelensky 17,642 27%
Petroshenko 11,486 17.57%
Tymoshenko 10,719 16.4%

Others (36 Candidates): 25,509 38.3%

Lyashko is at 8.22% which seems to imply that the count is fairly biased toward Northern Ukraine since his Radical Party tends to be stronger there.  I do not think he is expected to do this well Ukraine wide.

Zelensky would have my vote.

Tymoshenko claims that her count based on 63.51% of the results has it at "Zelensky 28.1%, Tymoshenko 16.1%, Poroshenko 15.2%"

Tymoshenko, the man, is at 0.8% right now...

Are either of them related to Marshal Semyon Timoshenko?

Ukraine: 3.6% of Polls, 318K Votes

Zelensky 91,054 28.61%
Petroshenko 54,901 17.25%
Tymoshenko 47,707 15%

Others (36 Candidates): 124K 39.14%

No. This is a common last name, so nothing surprising.

By the way, most of Yury Tymoshenko votes seem to come from Yulia Tymoshenko supporters who made a mistake filling the ballot.

With 9.12% in we have

Zelensky             29.48%
Petroshenko        16.96%
Tymoshenko        13.87%
Boyko                 11.08%

It seems Zelensky lead is growing but so is the Petroshenko-Tymoshenko gap

With 17.04% in we have

Zelensky             30.08%
Petroshenko        16.65%
Tymoshenko        13.38%
Boyko                 11.41%

Zelensky and Boyko going up over time with Petroshenko and Tymoshenko going down over time.  Petroshenko-Tymoshenko gap increasing.

Ukraine: 18.31% of Polls, 2,609,000 Votes

Zelensky 784,569, 30.07%
Petroshenko 435,797 16.70%
Tymoshenko 349,281 13.38%
Boyko 296,613 11.36%

Others (35 Candidates): 742K 28.49%

With 27.74% in we have

Zelensky             30.10%
Petroshenko        16.77%
Tymoshenko        13.25%
Boyko                 11.35%

These numbers look pretty steady now so they should pretty much be the result which would mostly match exit polls.

Close to 45% of votes counted - not much change. So, it's, most likely, Zelensky vs Poroshenko in run-off, with advantage (despite Poroshenko's incumbency and control of most of mass media) going to Zelensky

With 79.18% in we have

Zelensky             30.41%
Petroshenko        16.05%
Tymoshenko        13.24%
Boyko                 11.54%

Note that this vote share calculation also does not filter out the around 1.18% that are invalid so the non-null vote share are all a bit higher.  Also this is Ukraine only and not vote from abroad which my understanding  leans Petroshenko. 

It seems a gap of over 14% between Zelensky  and Petroshenko  will be too large for Petroshenko to overcome even though I was always pretty positive on Petroshenko's chances.  It seems Petroshenko reaction to the results is the same old attacks on Zelensky and Kolomoyskyi which I think is already baked in" into voting intentions.  He better come up something else soon on his line of attack.  Perhaps now is a time for a renewed conflict with Russia ?

In REAL conflict Russia would almost surely crush him. He needs "good imitation" of conflict, but still - imitation....

Of course.  I think the best way is some sort of standoff in  Donbass like troops from both sides face to face with some shooting here or there for some strategic spot.  Ideally for  Petroshenko  the standoff lasts for 2 weeks or so before the runoff.  Then Petroshenko  can have all sorts of threatening speeches and military parades and drown out any news of Zelensky in the media.  The election then becomes a Petroshenko vs Putin race.

Agree. This is, essentially, the only path to winning for Poroshenko...

there's no way poroshenko can win in second round. ukrainian people aren't complete idiots, he won plurality only in pro nazi regions of lviv and ternopil. i think zelenski will win in second round with 2/3 majority at least.

here's map by region https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47767440

No. My present forecast is about 58% Zelensky. But it's 3 weeks until 21st....

P.S. (concerning "complete idiots"): Before November 2016 i frequently heard phrases like "Americans are not complete idiots, they will not elect Trump...")))))

Rule 1 of elections: A voter is smart and rational, voters en masse are stupid.

Excellent rule!

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Looks a lot more like a 2014 retread than a pre-revolutionary map, esp. in Southern Ukraine separating politically from the Donbass.

Some maps.

Poroshenko vs Zelenskiy. Best region for Zelenskiy - Dniepro region, he is from that region. For Poroshenko - Lviv
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Poroshenko by regions
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Electoral districts, won by candidates, green - Zelenskiy, red - Poro, pink - Timoshenko, blue - Boyko
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Boyko vs Poroshenko, electoral districts
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Map of precincts
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Precincts in Kiy(e)v. Zelenskiy won in poorer parts of city
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Interesting precincts:
Zelenskiy is leading in prisons, but with Timoshenko at close second position and even behind her in some
Timoshenko won many precincts in hospitals, especially in central Ukraine
Poroshenko won special districts for soldiers in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with Zelenskiy as close second
Poroshenko won abroad, Switzerland is his best performance (60%+), but Zelenskiy won almost all of Eastern Europe, and Boyko won in Estonia and Moldova
Zelenskiy won universities in Kiev, some of them (like Kiev Politech) - strongly

It seems to me Zelenskiy is better off with Timoshenko not endorsing him for the second round or else it might stain his outsider new politics image.

Is there a reason why places like Donetsk still votes for pro-russian candidates? If you add the two pro-russian candidates with 10-30% of Zelensky support who can be broadly either pro-russia or pro-peace talks. They make up 50%+ when the areas were affected by war.

Those are pro-Russian regions. It was Yanukovich's electoral fortress. Also, some Russian TV and Radio channels still work there.

My prediction for the runoff:

63.4% Zelensky
36.6% Poroshenko (Inc.)

I know but theres area that was a battle site years ago. Perhaps people are just reacting to high unemployment and want a peace settlement even if they know Russia wouldn't honor it.

Sloviansk for example was devastated but 52.2% of the vote there went to Boiko and Vikul combined.

Rumours about pro-Poroshenko falsifications at several precincts in Donetsk region.


Those people think that it's Kiev government who has started the war, probably. Government ethnonationalism isn't helping either. And terrible economical situation in Donetsk-Luhansk regions

Because those places are pro-russian...

It seems - some people simpy can't understand, how one can be pro-Russia at all. Simply. No one will call me Putin's fan, but there is more stability in Russia now, then in the Ukraine. And many people want stability most of all. It's another question of what Russia will be after Putin, and what happens there, but - these are not a present day issues (yet). In Ukraine similar questins are very much present. In addition - no country can ignore "big neighbour": Canada and Mexico - US, Vietnam - China, and so on. For Ukraine the "big neighbour" is Russia. Nearby geographically, a lot of economic connections from the past (i have a friend in Kharkov, who still remembers fondly time, when Kharkov was a scientific and industrial center of the whole region, which included some areas of North-East Ukraine and some - of Russia (Belgorod, which is nearby in Russia, served as agricultural center of this area, BTW). And now it's even difficult to travel from Kharkov to Belgorod)), family connections, close languages (though i almost never heard Ukranian spoken in Kharkov), and many other reasons....

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-election-gas/ukrainian-government-bans-gas-price-hikes-before-vote-idUSKCN1RF16M
Ukrainian government bans gas price hikes before vote




Also, Ze calling out Poroshenko to have a debate in a trollish teaser/ad. Poroshenko is toast.

https://www.facebook.com/zelenskiy95/videos/2220411848209179/ (in ukranian).

Map by districts. Brown district in Donetsk region - place where falsifications were, about 50 000 non-existent votes for Poroshenko were added (not only in this district, in sum through Donetsk region).
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According to exit poll for 112/NewsOne by SORA.

Who you are going to vote for if it in the second round will be Ze vs Po
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Ze 49.4%
Po 19.8%
Unsure 19.2%
Wouldn't vote 11.6%

The second image shows the voter flows and, by some reason, slightly different results (Po at 22.3% by instance).


https://smc.org.ua/news/drugyj-tur-startovi-pozytsiyi-kandydativ-chastyna-1-regionalnyj-rozpodil/
https://smc.org.ua/news/drugyj-tur-startovi-pozytsiyi-kandydativ-chastyna-2-teritorialno-poselenska-struktura/
https://smc.org.ua/news/drugyj-tur-startovi-pozytsiyi-kandydativ-chastyna-3-peretoky-goglosiv/

The border between Donetsk/Luhansk regions and the rest of Ukraine seems to be very sharp...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-04/ukrainian-leader-agrees-to-debate-comic-in-stadium-before-runoff
Ukrainian Leader Agrees to Debate Comic in Stadium Before Runoff

Excellent! Does anyone with better Ukrainian language skill than me know if this will be broadcast anywhere with Russian or English translation?

"ukrainian leader", "comic rival", well we know for who bloomberg cheering...

It's not clear, where it will be broadcasted, if it will be at all. Theoretically, at Суспильне, but Zelenskiy wanted all channels, so it would be broadcasted on youtube on 112 and Newsone.
But probably without translation

After Po accepted the invitation to have a debate suggested Ze that Ti should be a moderate the debate to make it transparent...

Today, they were taking a drug tests to prove that they are not alcoholics or drug addicts... Then Klichko, the Mayor of Kiev and a former boxer, weights in and trolls them by saying that those drug test are joke and that he can organize the real one for them… Surreal...


It is starting to become a big fat joke... Does Ze want to lose?


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47819047
https://www.facebook.com/KlitschkoOfficial/posts/10156171518155205

Those events are good for Zelenskiy. He is comedian, after all. And Poroshenko so far has done nothing to raise his rating.

Big question is whether the next Ukrainian President will be Pro-US ?

I doubt the Po-isto will get reelected at this point. What did he do to piss people off ?

Zelensky is not pro-US/EU. But at the same time, he doesn't pro-Russia, at least to the extent Yanukovych was and Boyko could have been.

Actually, he is pro-EU and pro-US. Differences between him and all others pro-EU pro-NATO candidates: he wants referendum about should Ukraine go into NATO (Zelenskiy himself supports NATO)? And he wants peace talks with Russia (as compromises, Ze team spoke about real autonomy for Donbass).

I suspect some of that is simply who controls local politics the dropoff in support is rather quick out of the two regions towards zelensky.  The old party of regions network still exists there even as it has died elsewhere.  obviously the other factors mentioned are part of it as well.

Both are reasonable positions, IMHO, as Russia will not go anywhere, and will remain closest and most important (historically, economically, and so on) neighbour of Ukraine. You are not obliged to love your neighbour, but stable and minimally nornal relations with him are always preferrable to open hostility...

So Poroshenko was very strong in Lviv while battling it out with Tymoschenko in the rest of Western Ukraine?

Fun fact: the worst district for Poroshenko was Bolhrad district in Odessa region(3.82%). And it is his birthplace!
Not surprising, so: before 2014, it was very pro-eastern, and its population: 57% Bulgarians, 17% Gagauzes, 16% Russians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolhrad_Raion

Another sign of terrible Poroshenko's performance with ethnic minorities: the best district for Zelenskiy (51,13%) was Berehove district in  Zakarpattia region, 76% of population are Hungarians, 18,8% Ruthenians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berehove_Raion

You seem to have pretty good takes on Ukrainian politics as a Ukrainian, so I'm curious, who do you plan on voting for in the second round?

The first poll after the first round.

        All            Gonna vote         Gonna vote & decided
Ze    51%            61%                        71%
Po    21%            24%                        29%



(UKR) http://ratinggroup.ua/getfile/356/rg_ukraine_monitoring_042019_press.pdf

What did Poroshenko do to piss people off ?

The economy wasn't good although thats the fault of Russia and the separtists, however on corruption he was lackluster and corruption was one of the things he could have done something on if he wanted.

Another interesting fact: debates could be bad for Zelenskiy because... his Ukrainian language is bad! Usually he speaks Russian, only in some pre-scripted videos he spoke in Ukrainian. He said he has started Ukrainian about 2-3 years ago. Also his English is just terrible.

 
Failed people's expectations. You know. only Kuchma of all Ukrainian presidents was re-elected (with major falsifications), so nothing strange here. People wanted better economic situation, raising of wages etc. They got tariff increasing. Honestly, i don't think Poroshenko could do anything big to improve economy. Demographics, geopolitics, local politics, history etc are too strong to radically change path of the country.

However, Poroshenko could do something against corruption. Unfortunately, he didn't. His closest allies are involved in corrupt schemes, but even his enemies were not prosecuted.

Third thing is ethnonationalism, which alienated eastern electorate.

It's (the state of Ukranian economy) NOT the fault of Russia generally (which wasn't obliged to support Poroshenko's regime, with it's many anti-Russia overtones, first of all). According to such logic one could say, that bad state of Venezuelan economy is a US fault..... IF a state of your economy is heavily dependent on good relations with some other country - it's rather natural at least to try to normalize these relations (as old Russian saying goes: "Don't spit in the well you are drinking from"). May be cynical, but - true. Corruption is another matter...

He will speak Russian, won't he? I don't know if it is the bad thing for him. He already lost the die-hard anti-Russians...

Vast majority of die-hard anti-Russians in Ukraine speak Russian fluently. And i almost never heard Ukranian spoken in the eastern part of Ukraine - only on official ceremonies...

From the poll I posted before >>>

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Also, if I understand it all correctly, it is not clear there will be a debate... Po & his aides say that Po (according to the Ukraine law?) come only if there is no other debates at the same time. And since there seems to be a debates on national TV at the same time, he will come there as he should due to Ukraine law...

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1117472352034533377
Po said this yesterday in the stadium (I think) where he wanted to have debate with Ze who didn't come because Ze wants to have debate on 19... So... It is likely just the rhetoric... Hahaha, a sh**tshow in a sh**thole country...  as some would put it.

New poll

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1118122057940779008
(UKR) https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=851&page=1

90% Donbass (among those who have decided) would vote for Ze.


They asked as well about next parliamentary election.

Ze 26%
Bo 16% (a "pro-Russian" party, gained)
Po 14%
Ti 12% (collapsed?)


Overall "pro-Russian" parties get about 20%.

https://www.twitch.tv/mortis_gamer Debates with english translation, will start at 19-00 (GMT+3)

Also will be broadcasted on many ukrainian and russian tv-channels.

New poll shows:
Zelensky 54%
Poroshenko 44%

Much closer, then previous. Why such change?

not a very credible pollster (Dragomanov centre), numbers very different from most respected firms (KIIS, Rating). I don't think we should pay much attention to this (and only pro-Poroshenko media are paying it now)


links for debates in Ukrainian/Russian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9oEAXL1qE8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ei1_hzGpBQc

The debates in English by RT's Ruptly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGUuAMi2jls



Ze sometimes changes to Russian language.


Also, the debates are somewhat similar to American one.
- Po says that he is "most qualified candidate" (among other to meet Putin) while Ze is Putin's and oligarchs' puppet,
- while Ze says that Po is crooked and if Ze is the president Po might be locked up  :v (Ze said literally that Po might end up "seeing" a prosecutor).

A lot of a sh**t throwing...

Very good performance from Zelenskiy. Average from Poroshenko

I'm not a linguist, but for those who know both languages:

Is Ukrainian quite different to Russian or just some estranged dialect of Russian, similar to Dutch relative to Standard/High-German or Austrian-German relative to Standard/High-German ?

It would come across as very odd to Austrian voters for example if some major politician with origins in Germany would debate on TV here, speaking High-German ... because it is so distinct to our German. And vice-versa it would be weird as well.

Not a linguist too, but i would answer "different, but not SO different"... I never studied Ukranian, but understand 80-90% of spoken words nevertheless....

OK, so it is probably the same as Swiss German relative to Austrian German, but not relative to Standard/High-German:

While Austrians understand ca. 80-90% of what the Swiss say, the Northern Germans only understand some 20-30% of what the Swiss say when they talk plain Schwitzerdütsch ... (the Swiss notoriously have an inferiority complex when talking Swiss-German, because they think nobody understands them in Austria or Germany, which is absolutely not the case for Austrians ... but for North Germans, so they almost always try to speak High-German with us and the Germans. This results in the Swiss speaking High-German really well, better than Austrians, yet Austrians simply don't give a sh*t if North Germans understand us or not. Austrians think if someone from Hamburg wants to understand us, this person should simply learn Austrian German ... :P)

I'd say awful from Poroshenko given that he trailing by like 30-40% in polls. Average from Ze, but he didn't need anything special.


I don't know. I'd say they are not just dialects, but they are quite similar. Probably more similar than Spanish/Portuguese etc.

The thing is that neither Po or Ze are native Ukrainian speakers (though Poroshenko's has always been way better and significantly improved his skills) so it's much easier (to me) to understand them than native speakers.

What is most interesting is the ethnic dynamics at play here. Zelensky (who is Jewish) is a creature of Igor Kolomoyskyi (a very powerful, super-rich oligarch, who also happens to be Jewish). Meanwhile, all the Bandera* loving Neo-Nazi groups are supporting Poroshenko. It will be very interesting to see how they respond to having an openly Jewish leader. Its easy to imagine there being another "Maidan"...

* Note for Westerners, Stepan Bandera was a brutal Ukrainian nationalist who collaborated with the Nazi occupation during WW2. He and his followers killed up to one million people, including tens of thousands of Jews. Bandera is beloved by all the extreme Ukrainian nationalist groups (Pravy Sektor, Svoboda, C14 etc) and Poroshenko (as well as Yushchenko back in the 2000s) pander to Bandera's fanatical followers. Even Zelensky will probably try pandering to them, if he is allowed to win (especially considering that Kolomoyskyi himself has funded Bandera-loving groups in the past).

From what i see, noone talks about Zelenskiy jewish heritage. However rightwingers are infuriate by the fact that he is primarily Russian-speaking.


Some observations about Ukrainian Far-right: they are not about antisemitism at all. Yes, those groups glorified many antisemitic figures from the past (from Bandera to Corneliu Zelea Codreanu), but don't focused on antisemitic views of those figures. Main enemies of far-right groups are: migrants (but there aren't a lot of them in Ukraine), romani people, ethnic minorities like Russian and Hungarian, USSR heritage. Also there are special far-right groups (like Tradition and Order) which are focused on anti-LGBT/anti-feminism activities.

For the reference of those of us living outside of an RT media bubble, the chance of the loud but miniscule amount of actual Ukrainian Neo-Nazis causing a 'third Maidan' is roughly comparable to the chance of the American Antifa taking the White House by storm.

Well, even most Russians (like me) live "outside of an RT media bubble,"....)))

Until 11am local time, turnout is a bit higher than in Round 1:

17.1% vs. 16.7%

That is based on 69/199 districts (https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp063pt001f01=720.html) that have submitted their turnout data so far.

Also, turnout is ca. 2x as high in the south-eastern Zelenski strongholds vs. the western Poroschenko strongholds.

not enough data so far. Usually, Western Ukraine votes later (many people go to church in the morning)

Turnout approaching 18%, now that most districts have submitted their 11am data.

I think about 2/3 voters will cast ballots today (up from 63.5% in Round 1).

Does anyone know why there are now more eligible voters in the runoff compared with the first round, despite the fact that the Ukraine has a vastly shrinking population ?

Normally, there should be fewer voters in this case ...

Runoff: 29.659.013 + 700.604 overseas voters
1st round: 29.622.527 + 682.865 overseas voters

Interfax has created a turnout map by region for 11am:

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http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Utvzd/3/

As a comparison, here are the regional maps showing the support for Selenski and Poroschenko in the 1st round:

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I think there were briefly mentions in the newspapers that there were small speak in new registrations overseas. Probably something similar for Ukraine as well?

All 199 electoral districts have now reported their 3pm turnout:

45.26% (1st round: 45.11%)

So, turnout is basically unchanged at the national level.

On the regional level though, Volyn and Rivne (in the West) have seen a big drop for example.

Other than that, there is a small increase or slight decrease in most regions.

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp063pt001f01=720.html

There are a rumours of exit polls that shows that Ze is getting 72-75% vs 25-28% for Po (at 12:00 and 15:00). They say Po expects to gain a little, because west parts usually vote later. They say the question is if Ze manages to win each and all the "oblast" (means regions/counties) or not rather who becomes next president.

Here is the updated regional 3pm turnout map:

http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Utvzd

It still remains highest in the Selenski strongholds in the South-East and Center, while the Poroschenko-strongholds in the West are lagging far behind ...

I guess these turnout patterns finish off any chances Poroschenko had

Yeah.

I think those 70-30 Selenski polls ahead of the runoff won't be too far off the actual results.

Another Zelensky stronghold is Transcarpathia (in the country's southwest), which has the lowest turnout in Ukraine.

True, but Zakarpatia won't make the difference here.

Correct, but why exactly do the mountain people not like Poroschenko, considering his strongholds of Lviv and suburbs are just to the North of them ?

Because Ukrainian nationalism and ethnic identity is not as strong there.

Basically all exit-polls show:

Ze 73%
Po 27%

Exit Poll:

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Not really close ...

If you look back, it has always been less Western Ukrainian politically than the rest of Western Ukraine, especially clearly in 2010. Despite the username, I have not studied it extensively, though I would guess this has to do with more conflicted ethnic identity; there are a lot of Hungarians, Rusyns, Romanians, etc.

Here is the "National" Exit poll. Right now only in Ukranian.
http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/


Ze's share:

West 57%
Centre 70%
South 85%
East 88%

Total 73%


In English, too, now. http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/en

As an American its a beautiful thing to see a country not suffering from the scourge of polarization. Lucky Ukraine.

It should be noted that this exit poll takes into account responses until 6pm local time, but polls closed at 8pm.

There will be another exit poll update later on to account for the final 2 hours of voting.

Police/election observers recorded some 1.000 cases of election irregularities, mostly small offenses like not providing a passport to vote or holding the filled-out ballot into the camera.

The last one actually led to a charge in court by Selenski himself, who waved with his filled-out ballot in front of journalists. Police filed a charge against him ... :P

Wait until the Jewish comedian turns out to be a Putin plant, though.

Lviv + suburbs (Poroschenko's best region in the 1st round) had one of the lowest turnouts in the morning.

Now, surprisingly, it has the highest turnout of all regions ...

Doesn't make a difference though, because all his other strongholds underperformed.

like poroshenko was not that + most corrupted ukrainian president ever

damn poroshenko is destroyed even in western region

"Azov" on aparates

Counterpoint: Yanukovich

The good thing is that Poroshenko is gone. The bad thing is that Zelensky will replace him.

Turnout is largely unchanged from the 1st round:

62-63% with almost all districts reporting their numbers.

That means Zelensky will get ~14 million votes, Poroschenko ~5 million votes.

Yeah, present day America reminds me Russia in 1918-1920. Extremist "reds" and equally extreme "whites". Ready to kill each other in direct sense of these words. And almost no one else. Right now US is very close to that... Ukraine is different..

You are dumb, sir. That happens, but - incurable...

Incumbent President Poroshenko meanwhile has accepted his defeat and has called President-elect Zelenski to congratulate him on his victory:

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https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/582736.html

His concession speech was actually OK, but then...

https://twitter.com/poroshenko/status/1120021217417809922

http://ppi.org.ua/news/exitpoll_2019_ppi_zelenskij_75_21_poroshenko_23_10/2019-04-21-384

According to the exit poll from PPI, Ze won everywhere, but Lviv.


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5% of the votes counted:

73.6% Zelensky
26.4% Poroshenko

Exit Polls look very accurate.

Good old Lviv is famous for their love of Jews.
And good old Poroshenko was expirienced how on begining on his mandate?

91% of the votes counted:

74.9% Zelensky
25.1% Poroshenko

Zelensky is ahead in every region except Lviv, where Poroshenko has 63%.

Ternopil is also close, but even there Zelensky is ahead by a few points.

Zelensky's best region is Luhansk with 89% support.

Everything is logical. Lviv (Lvov in Russian) was always Poland-leaning and rather strongly anti-Russia. Ternopil (and Ivano-Frankovsk) - part of Galicia with Lviv. Luhansk  (Luhansk in Russian)- barely different from, say, Rostovskaya "oblast" of Russia... Donetsk, Odessa, Kharkov are also "Russia-leaning" (Kharkov had closest connections with Russian Belgorod until last years) and i am sure Poroshenko got very little there...

98% counted:

74.88% Zelensky
25.12% Poroshenko

Turnout: 62%

Some maps.

Winner of electoral district
()
Poroshenko won 1 district in Ivano-Franhivsk region (city of Ivano-Franhivsk), two districts in Ternopol region (city of Ternopol and suburbs) and all districts in Lviv region.

Voting abroad (Poroshenko won with 56%)
Not much people voted outside of Ukraine. Only in 6 countries (Poland, Czechia, Germany, USA, Spain, Italy) more than 1000 votes.
()
USA - Poroshenko 72%
Canada - Poroshenko 74%
UK - Poroshenko 70%
Italy - Poroshenko 62%
Portugal - Poroshenko 58%
Spain - Poroshenko 56%
Germany - Poroshenko 55%
Israel - Poroshenko 50.46%
Poland - Zelensky 51%
Czechia - Zelensky 59%

Interesting that some districts near the secessionist Donbass conflict zone appear to be tight.

Do you think this is because of vote rigging there, or maybe because many nationalist pro-Poroshenko soldiers are stationed and voting there ?

Probably second. Those districts are only partially controlled by Kiev, so soldiers can be majority of voters there.
Reports: Poroshenko won about 50% of soldiers' votes, Zelensky 46% (regiments deployed in Donbass)


Interactive map (by precincts)
https://elections.dekoder.org/ukraine/en

You really think the U.S. is on the cusp of a February (or Bolshevik) Revolution?

Not so quick, but in perspective - yes. As i already said - half of America is ready to shoot another half on place in very literal sense of these words... I will not be surprised if it happens in next 20 years. A Civil War II....

Finally, some maps by administrative districts.

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Change of Poro's % of votes in districts, second round (compared to first round)
()

You can clear see where falsifications in the first round were: in some districts in Donetsk region Poro's vote share fell by 10%!

Is there such a map for change in Zelensky's vote share?

Sounds like the newly elected Ukranian President will NOT be an ally of the United States & NATO countries.

Why MUST he? There are lots of connections between Ukraine and Russia despite all that happened in the last years, and geography is important factor too. Of course - he will NOT be Putin's ally, but, probably, will balance more, then Poroshenko did...

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