Talk Elections

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_governor

Gillum 48
DeSantis 42

SAFE GILLUM

This race is lean D, Gillum is absolutely favored at this point.

Even (R)asmussen has Gillum up, and by 6? Freedom poll! :D

FL GOP really ed up by selecting this maniac.

DeSantis is finished

Rassy is always trashy, but my lord. After 2016 I will never move FL to Lean D, but I think you could take this to Tilt D.

This is unfair DeSantis needs more time.

DeSantis was the defacto leader of the R primary and the likely winner for months, while Gillum had just won a primary out of a staggering upset only a couple of weeks ago. If anyone deserves more time, its Gillum, but I dont think he needs it.

Gillum is likely to win at this point, and FL is more likely to flip than Ohio, which is trending more GOP than FL or Iowa.

42% is too low for a Republican. I fully expect this race to tighten to 2% or less.
Both parties have a 47% floor

That’s what the R’s get for nominating an idiot.

Who knew people wouldn't vote for a Nazi?

Hard to argue that Gillum isn't at least slightly favored, at this point. Could it be that Atlas was actually wrong to declare that he couldn't win!?

Didn't people say that about Reagan?

Lean D, I knew that DeSantis' problems would outweigh Gillum's.

Sunbelt Billionaire Trophy Wives strike again!

DeSantis has baggage with every congressional vote he took. Currently he is being smeared voting against the Violence Against Women Act. I'm sure there are plenty more votes there what came from.

Frankly, does Gillum and the DGA need negative DeSantis ads? DeSantis' baggage is providing enough earned media coverage. They should be able to focus on positive ads.

Gillum is clearly at least slightly favored, and the race has remained steady since the primary. We'll have to see if the next two months change the race.

Good for Gillum. I wish Wisconsin had this many polls!

ask and you shall receive! We should be getting a new poll of WI soon.

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GILLUMENTUM :D

Moving from Tilt to Lean D.

DeSantis still needs time to figure out his stances less than 60 days from the election. All of that sniffing of Trump's ass but no real policy positions. People really let Trump's scant victory against an opponent equally as unpopular as him go to their heads.

This wasn't even the survey I took either. God this is nice, seriously. For the first time in many years I have faith in my fellow Floridians. Bring it home Gillum. You too Nelson.

Please, give me a reason to not be a reluctant Democrat

Gillum will pull it off, absent a Bradley effect.

I have a hard time believing whites are evenly split while DeSantis is up double digits with hispanics. And it seems Rass is hellbent on their "black exodus" from the Dems narrative as they're showing only 75% of the AA community going for Gillum. The actual number will be around 94-96% on election day. 

It's odd almost every governor poll we got so far has DeSantis leading with Hispanics and whites being close.

Nice.

Still a tossup.

Even if Gillum wins and becomes Florida's first black governor, white millionaires and billionaires won't put up for a income tax (FL has no income tax). He may be a one-term governor, we'll see.

There is a reason Midwesterners and Northeasterners move to states like FL, GA, NC, TX. They don't want their taxes to be heavily raised.

I know several Putnam supporters who agree with this sentiment.

Is Florida actually going to redeem itself? Hopefully this won't be marred by Scott winning simultaneously winning the Senate election.

Actually, the white Sun Belt Billionaire Trophy Wives will be the ones fueling Gillum's victory if he wins, so surely they will put up.

They move to the sunbelt because it’s better weather, better food, cheaper property, cheaper COL, and more ethnic women. Taxes affecting millionaires would be a much lower reason on the list.

a sizable demographic on election day

With GILLUM as Gov, FL in a way, with ethnic demographic changes is turning like CA😀

See FDP, this is what happens when you nominate someone who gives people a reason to vote for them.

I can't wait to gloat about Governor DeSantis in this thread come January.

I can't wait to gloat about how wrong you were!

At this point there is very little question in my mind, considering the post Primary and post Labor Day Polls indicating Gillum has a bit of a lead from multiple polling organizations....

As I posited elsewhere, it appears that Anglo Seniors in Florida are drifting towards Gillum for multiple reasons (Health Care and Social Security being major items of concern).

It is also helpful to consider the fact, that there are a considerable number of Anglo Retiree Floridians, that comes from the MidWest, that tend to vote a bit differently than Anglo retirees from the NorthEast.

What I suspect is that we are starting to see a bit of erosion among Floridian Anglo retirees from Midwest States, combined with the obvious factor of NE US Anglo Retiree Floridians, not only having higher general support for Democratic candidates, but additionally consist of a larger chunk of the FL retiree vote compared to Midwest retirees.

Larger number and smaller swings = greater raw vote, lower number and bigger swings starts to hit margins significantly as well....

BOTH numbers start to hit critical mass ????

Good news for GILLUM

Like Nazism without Hitler, Trumpism is DOA without Trump himself.

Great numbers, especially for a poll that leans conservative.

Florida’s Latino community is heavily Cuban and non-whites tend to be more socially conservative than Anglos. Look at the race breakdown for medical marijuana and weed legalization.
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_Governor_September6_R78S.pdf

Obama won FL 2x's already, FL needs a progressive again

Is it me or after Obama effectively split both the Cuban, and fwiw the Vietnamese, vote in Florida and California respectively, at least Cubans have shifted back to being Republican friendly again? This even though younger Cubans are not nearly as Republican as their elders?

At any rate, Cuban still make up be strong Lion Share of Florida's Hispanic population, and they still favor Republicans, so I'm not particularly surprised DeSantis is leading there. Standard caveat regarding sub sample Mo E of course.

Why is it a surprise? I keep saying if the Democrats want to appeal to Hispanics, they have to start nominating Hispanics. Republicans consistently nominate Hispanics for statewide races, but the Democrats rarely if ever do. There is only one half-Hispanic in their Congressional delegation. Republicans have three. Bizarre for a party that always takes the Hispanic vote for granted.

That being said, I expect Gillum will pull this off -- absent any wild cards with the FBI --, based on a combination of a number of factors that have nothing to do with ethnicity, such as the fact that the GOP has held the Florida governorship for so long, the national environment, and his qualities as a candidate. However, if he does, his win won't be as big as it could have been. The Florida Democrats have basically been given a freebie this year -- when you're shut out of power for 20 years, that tends to happen. It's not a testament to the competence of the Party.

Again, Cubans. Not Hispanic voters in general, Cubans. Very very different voting habits as I'm sure you are aware. Not only do Florida Democrats not take the Hispanic vote for granted, it has long been a fundamental part of the Florida Republican parties electoral coalition in the last few decades. Until that is, one properly starts to distinguish between one Cuban Hispanic voters and Cuban Hispanic voters.

At any rate, you are correct at the Florida Democratic party who would do well to one more Cubans and other Hispanics. The problem is growing strong enough a Hispanic bench for Statewide office.

I fully expect Gillum to run ahead of Nelson, maybe not by 5 points, but enough for him to win. Tilt/Lean D.

Obama won the state anyways, and FL can elect another blackman.

At this point, yeah (although I still think they both win).

If Dems secure Iowa,WI, MI, Pa, they don't need OH or FL, this race will go back to a dead heat, but Gillum won't rub ahead of Nelson

Funny typo.