Talk Elections

If the election for Governor was held today, who would you vote for: Republican Ron DeSantis or Democrat Andrew Gillum?

Ron DeSantis: 47.3%
Andrew Gillum: 47.6%
Undecided: 5.1%

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_Governor_September6_R78S.pdf
 (http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_Governor_September6_R78S.pdf)
inb4 "decimals" I wanted to show the results as they presented them rather than rounding to Gillum 48, DeSantis 47. This is a toss up race.

RIP PNM

Statistically insignificant, but nonetheless good to see.

Good to see Gillum up, and its also promising that the undecideds appear to be mostly minority voters, such as AAs, Latinos, and, strangely the largest group, Asians. Its also promising as the poll is more R friendly in registration than FL is.

Yup, hopefully it pulls him over the top. RN I see Chad DeSantis losing 49.6-48.8.

DeSantis is pulling Scott down.

New Poll: Florida Governor by St.PetePolls on 2018-09-06 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220180906271)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 47%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_Governor_September6_R78S.pdf)

D e c i m a l s

Did you not observe that DeSantis leads in every racial group except Black non Hispanics?

Why do you expect undecided AA to break to Gillum?  I suspect they may not like his tax increase proposals.

One truly interesting thing is how small the gender gap is.

Its not just this poll that I have found those to be the undecided group, it was also in Q, in PPP, and the other polls we have gotten. While the polls differ on who leads in which demographic group, the consensus is that AAs are going to Gillum, Hispanics are a tossup, and the white vote is split around 40/60. As to why I think the undecided AA vote will go to Gillum, its the same reason that Conservative voters in OK are more likely to go to DeSantis than Gillum. The gender gap is interesting, though.

To be fair, the size of the gender gap doesn't really mean anything in terms of the election outcome. The Democrats have picked an all-male ticket and that's their choice. If they lose because of that, they have only themselves to blame.

As for undecideds being minorities, it's the same as in Georgia, I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Minorities are less likely to be informed about politics to begin with or care. It's just a sign that these voters are less likely to turn out. I wouldn't be surprised if many of these people simply don't show up.

As a Floridian Democrat who didn't even favor the selection of Chris King, I can assure you nobody is gonna decide not to vote for Gillum b/c he picked another guy as his running mate.

FL may vote Dem while OH votes GOP, which is a real possibility, with GILLUM😁

You have done nothing but write Gillum's obituary since he was nominated even though he has led in every single poll so far and the fundamentals point to a Democratic victory because "muh FBI".

Actually a 0.3% lead. lol

I expect the final result to be something like this.  Gillum +0.5 and probably Scott +0.5 in the senate race, with the only other GOP pickup being ND.

Scott is tied with Nelson, if DeSantis loses he will lose as well.