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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: jaichind on August 06, 2018, 08:31:55 pm



Title: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on August 06, 2018, 08:31:55 pm
2019 will see Unified Local elections of April 2019 where a large majority of prefecture and other local elections will take place (most likely over 2 days.)  Then in July there will be Upper House elections where Abe will lead LDP to another victory.  Most likely the pro-Constitutional revision bloc (LDP-KP plus Third Pole (JRP and rump HP)) will most likely barely lose their 2/3 majority.   So Abe's window to get Constitutional revision might close on him if he does not act fast.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 06, 2018, 09:14:08 pm
My prelim projection of 2019 Upper House elections.

CDP is the de facto Left wing DP splinter party and DPP is the de facto Right wing DP splinter party.  It seems that JCP will be willing to work with CDP and SDP and DPP is willing to work with CDP but it is not clear DPP and JCP are willing to work together.

 I assume that somehow CDP DPP SDP LP and JCP forms alliances in the 1- member districts to back the most winnable candidate.  I also assume some sort of coordination between JCP and other Center Left opposition parties in multi-member seats as well.    The 2016 anti-TPP wave of Northern Japan dissipates giving the LDP back some 1- member districts in Northern Japan.
 
埼玉(Saitama) is now a 4 member district vs 3 in 2016 and 2 extra PR seats got added to 50 from 48 in 2016.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP CDP
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             LP      
宮城   Miyagi               1            LDP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (opposition joint candidate)
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPP                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP JCP                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP DPP LDP                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP CDP HP            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             CDP          
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP CDP KP JCP LP LDP    
新潟   Niigata             1             CDP                    
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                            
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP CDP KP DPP                
三重   Mie                   1             OPPN (Opposition joint candidate - most likely CDP background)  
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP      
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP  
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP ORA KP CDP            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP CDP
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama        1             LDP                                  
鳥取   Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPP
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP CDP KP                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP          
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN (opposition joint candidate - most likely AO background)    

For PR my current guess that it will be

            Vote share     Seats
LDP          33.5%         18
CDP          24.5%        13
KP            13.5%          7
JCP            9.0%          4
DPP            6.5%         3
JRP            5.0%          2
SDP           2.5%          1
LP              2.0%          1
HP              2.0%         1
NPB            0.5%
HRP            0.5%
PJK             0.5%


In 2017 if you count HP as Center-Left and in 2019 rump HP as Third Pole (non-LDP Right wing opposition parties) you get this chart of PR vote share if my vote share projection is correct

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       45.79                7.16             38.92              7.90
2019       47.00                8.00             35.50              9.00

The basic idea is that CDP consolidates its position as the leading Center-Left opposition party but novelty bonus from 2017 wears off a bit and some of its 2017 support flow back to JCP.  Third Pole continues to lose ground although part of the 2017 HP vote was for Third Pole policies which now are counted correctly as Third Pole.

With seats coming out as

            District    PR      Total
LDP          40        18       58
CDP          12        13      25
KP             7          7       14
JCP            2          4         6
DPP            6         3         9
JRP            1         2         3
HP             1         1         2
LP              2         1         3
SDP           0          1         1
OPPN         3                     3
-----------------------------------------
              74        50       124

If you group them by bloc you get
LPD-KP        72
Center-Left   41   (CDP DPP LP SDP OPPN)
Third Pole      5    (JRP HP)
JCP               6

The batch elected in 2016 is
LDP-KP        70
Center-Left   38
Third Pole      7
JCP               6

If you add them up you get
LDP-KP       142
Center-Left   79
Third Pole     12
JCP              12

Center-Left + JCP are 37.14% of the seats which denies the LDP-KP plus Third Pole bloc a 2/3 majority.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 07, 2018, 06:23:27 am
Some info on prefecture elections

April 2019 there will be a large number of prefecture elections.  All prefectures except for 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 福島(Fukushima) [these 3 got "knocked off the regular cycle" due to the 2011 nuclear accident], 茨城(Ibaraki), 東京(Tokyo), and 沖縄(Okinawa) will have their prefecture election at that time.

茨城(Ibaraki) will have theirs in Dec 2018.

There have been a lot of churn since April 2015 in the non-JCP opposition space.  Namely DPJ has basically split into a Centrist DPP and a Center-Left CDP.  It seems CDP might have alliances with JCP in some prefectures but that is yet to be seen.  It is also possible if not likely that CDP will have alliances with DPP in some prefectures.

The main advantage for the LDP-KP is that they tend to have most of the raw talent at the local level since distribution of subsidies from the central government to the prefecture government flow via LDP MPs to LDP MLAs.   The LDP-KP alliance also means that unless DCP DPP and JCP can form alliances in 1-seat districts then LDP-KP are destined to sweep all of them. 

A look at how the seats are distributed between 1- 2- and even larger districts between different prefectures gives us a sense of the LDP advantage.   The dynamic will be that LDP will sweep all the 1- seat districts and potentially 2- seat districts in rural areas.  In 3- seat districts it will be LDP-LDP(or KP)-Opposition.  In 4 seat districts it will be LDP-KP-Opposition-JCP(or Opposition).  Beyond that JCP will for sure win a seat and other smaller opposition parties (JCP and SDP) will begin to get seats. 

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茨城(Ibaraki), 埼玉(Saitama), 新潟(Niigata), 岐阜(Gifu), 大阪(Osaka), 高知(Kōchi), 福岡(Fukuoka), 熊本   (Kumamoto), and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) have a large number of seats which are 1- seat districts which gives the LDP (or JRP in Osaka) a large advantage. 

In some prefectures the LDP is so strong that a local rebel LDP faction is actually the real opposition and pulls in opposition votes and leaves the non-JCP opposition with even less votes.  茨城(Ibaraki) is an example of this although post-2017 Lower House elections the local LDP rebel kingpin 中村 喜四郎 (Nakamura Kishirō) decided to join forces with the non-JCP opposition and will most likely have an alliance with DPP if not also with CDP.

Some prefectures have specialized local circumstances.

In 岩手(Iwate) Ozawa's LP is the lynch pin of the non-JCP opposition and has deprived LDP-KP of a majority.
In 東京(Tokyo) we have Koike's  TPFA as the ruling party although with Koike's political reputation ruined with HP and 2017 elections TPFA will fall into decline to the benefit of LDP soon.
In 三重(Mie) a local anti-JCP opposition party (New Politics Mie) in alliance with the non-JCP opposition has help drive LDP-KP to below a majority.
In 大阪(Osaka) JRP-KP has a majority.  In Osaka it is de facto JRP-KP vs LDP-(non-JCP opposition)-JCP.   JRP is a LDP splinter so the LDP branch of Osaka is so hostile to JRP it rather have a de facto alliance with JCP than work with JRP.
In 沖縄(Okinawa) due to the base issue an broad anti-base Center-Left alliance have a majority.
In 滋賀(Shiga) a anti-LDP center-left local opposition (Team Shiga) in alliance with the non-JCP alliance has driven LDP-KP close to losing its majority.

The main battle in April is will LDP-KP lose ground at the prefecture level.  LDP does have a chance at winning a majority in 大阪(Osaka) and the non-JCP opposition will work to keep the LDP-KP from a majority in  三重(Mie) and perhaps 滋賀(Shiga).  Longer but possible shots have driving LDP-KP to below majority will be 長野(Nagano) and 京都(Kyoto) [JCP are strong there but that makes it harder for JCP and non-JCP opposition to form an alliance].  Everywhere else it is at best a battle to reduce the size of the LDP-KP majority.



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 07, 2018, 06:24:45 am
Abe approval rating curve holding steady
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LDP support curve (pink) also steady.  CDP (light blue) dropping as its novelty factor starts to wear off
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: Lok on August 07, 2018, 06:43:49 am
So would it be a fair assessment to say that LDP loses their overall majority, but LDP-KP are returned with a slightly reduced majority?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 07, 2018, 07:47:19 am
So would it be a fair assessment to say that LDP loses their overall majority, but LDP-KP are returned with a slightly reduced majority?

Pretty much.  LDP has a majority right now mostly because of its 2013 landslide election which is unlikely to repeated. LDP won 56 out of 121 seats in 2016 and is projected by me to win 58 out of 124 seats in 2019. 

My project is somewhat friendly toward the opposition in assuming that to avoid a LDP-KP landslide the various opposition forces can come up with tactical alliances including JCP and DPP working together on a case by case basis.  Even if in a bunch of places a sub-optimal setup takes place for the opposition and say loses 5 seats to LDP relative to my model that still puts LDP seat count at 56 + 63 = 119 which is still not a majority out of 245.

Likewise the Center-Left opposition plus JCP losing 5 seats relative to my model still has them at around 35% of the seats post 2019 election which puts LDP-KP plus Third Pole below 2/3 majority.

So the way for the Center-Right opposition to under-perform my projection is clear.  It is by not making deals to come up with a unity candidate with JCP support in 1- member districts plus over-nomination in 3- and 4- member districts.   Not getting their act together means losing seats to both LDP (mostly 1- member districts) and JRP (in大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo)) that they could have won.

As to how the Center-Right opposition could over-perform my projection relies on having strong candidates in Northern swing districts like 福島(Fukushima) and 宮城(Miyagi) where LDP incumbency plus the lack of the 2016 anti-TPP tide should give LDP wins despite the fact that LDP lost in 2016.  If DCP and DPP can come up with quality candidates (ex-DPJ MPs) with strong roots in the district then perhaps LDP can be beaten with support from JCP.  Other 2016 anti-TPP wave districs like 青森(Aomori) which LDP lost in 2016 and 愛媛(Ehime) where LDP almost lost in 2016 most likely are out of reach for the opposition.   In 神奈川(Kanagawa) a rump HP candidate 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) who use to be the governor of prefecture will run for re-election (he was elected in 2013 as YP candidate.)  It is likely that he will eat into the LDP vote as well as opposition votes.  If the Center-Left Opposition can coordinate with JCP well they could deny Matsuzawa and win a second seat in addition to LDP and KP each obviously winning a seat.  Given the opposition track record of coordination with JCP in 3- and 4- member districts this seems unlikely.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 07, 2018, 08:18:55 am
Japan is the land of fairly boring party logos.  I think one of the reasons that DCP and DPP are not taking off is because their party logos are just too boring when compared to the fairly boring logos of their competitors.

LDP logo which is bland but still somewhat reasonable
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KP is similar
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CDP is pretty boring
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DPP no better
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JCP is reasonably interesting
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JRP is sort of interesting
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LP is pretty boring
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HP is also pretty boring
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SDP is somewhat interesting
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HRP is also reasonably interesting
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PJK is also pretty good
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 07, 2018, 12:20:50 pm
My current chart on seat distribution in each prefecture by bloc (LDP and pro-LDP independents, KP, Center-Left, Third Pole (JRP, TPFA, ex-YP), JCP)

           LDP+      KP     LDP+KP    Center-L Third Pole  JCP    
北海道50.50%   7.92%   58.42%   37.62%   0.00%   3.96% Hokkaido
青森   62.50%   6.25%   68.75%   25.00%   0.00%   6.25% Aomori
岩手   43.75%   2.08%   45.83%   47.92%   0.00%   6.25% Iwate
宮城   54.24%   6.78%   61.02%   20.34%   5.08%  13.56% Miyagi
秋田   62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33% Akita
山形   68.18%   2.27%   70.45%   25.00%   0.00%   4.55% Yamagata
福島   51.72%   5.17%   56.90%   29.31%   5.17%   8.62% Fukushima
茨城   71.43%   6.35%   77.78%   17.46%   0.00%   4.76% Ibaraki
栃木   58.00%   6.00%   64.00%   24.00%  10.00%   2.00% Tochigi
群馬   66.00%   6.00%   72.00%   24.00%   0.00%   4.00% Gunma
埼玉   56.99%   9.68%   66.67%   27.96%   0.00%   5.38% Saitama
千葉   57.89%   8.42%   66.32%   26.32%   2.11%   5.26% Chiba
神奈川47.62%   9.52%   57.14%   31.43%   5.71%   5.71% Kanagawa
山梨   65.79%   2.63%   68.42%   28.95%   0.00%   2.63% Yamanashi
東京   18.11% 18.11%   36.22%     4.72%  44.09% 14.96% Tokyo
新潟   66.04%   3.77%   69.81%   28.30%   0.00%   1.89% Niigata
富山   75.00%   2.50%   77.50%   20.00%   0.00%   2.50% Toyama
石川   69.77%   4.65%   74.42%   23.26%   0.00%   2.33% Ishikawa
福井   72.97%   2.70%   75.68%   21.62%   0.00%   2.70% Fukui
長野   37.93% 17.24%   55.17%   29.31%   1.72%  13.79% Nagano
岐阜   69.57%   4.35%   73.91%   21.74%   2.17%   2.17% Gifu
静岡   59.42%   7.25%   66.67%   31.88%   0.00%   1.45% Shizuoka
愛知   56.86%   5.88%   62.75%   32.35%   2.94%   1.96% Aichi
三重   41.18%   3.92%   45.10%   49.02%   1.96%   3.92% Mie
滋賀   47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   40.91%   0.00%   6.82% Shiga
京都   46.67%   8.33%   55.00%   18.33%   3.33%  23.33% Kyoto
大阪   29.55% 17.05%   46.59%    1.14%   48.86%   3.41% Osaka
兵庫   52.33% 15.12%   67.44%   16.28%  10.47%   5.81% Hyōgo
奈良   50.00%   6.82%   56.82%   20.45% 11.36%  11.36% Nara
和歌山71.43%   7.14%   78.57%   11.90%   2.38%   7.14% Wakayama
鳥取   60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   25.71%   0.00%   5.71% Tottori
島根   64.86%   5.41%   70.27%   24.32%   0.00%   5.41% Shimane
岡山   65.45%   9.09%   74.55%   20.00%   0.00%   5.45% Okayama
広島   65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   23.44%   0.00%   1.56% Hiroshima
山口   68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26% Yamaguchi
徳島   74.36%   5.13%   79.49%   12.82%   0.00%   7.69% Tokushima
香川   70.73%   4.88%   75.61%   19.51%   0.00%   4.88% Kagawa
愛媛   61.70%   6.38%   68.09%   17.02% 12.77%   2.13% Ehime
高知   54.05%   8.11%   62.16%   27.03%   0.00% 10.81% Kōchi
福岡   59.30% 12.79%   72.09%   25.58%   0.00%   2.33% Fukuoka
佐賀   71.05%   5.26%   76.32%   18.42%   0.00%   5.26% Saga
長崎   60.87%   6.52%   67.39%   28.26%   2.17%   2.17% Nagasaki
熊本   64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   27.08%   0.00%   2.08% Kumamoto
大分   55.81%   6.98%   62.79%   32.56%   2.33%   2.33% Ōita
宮崎   64.10%   7.69%   71.79%   23.08%   0.00%   5.13% Miyazaki
鹿児島72.55%   5.88%   78.43%   17.65%   1.96%   1.96% Kagoshima
沖縄   31.25%   8.33%   39.58%   43.75%   4.17%  12.50% Okinawa
Tot    55.92%   8.08%   64.00%   24.57%   5.66%   5.77%

All of them will be up for re-election in April 2019 except for

岩手(Iwate) - Sept 2019
宮城(Miyagi) - Nov 2019
福島(Fukushima) - Nov 2019
茨城(Ibaraki) - Dec 2018
東京(Tokyo) - Jun 2021
沖縄(Okinawa) - Jun 2020

The domination of LDP is very clear and add to KP LDP-KP has a majority in pretty much every prefecture except for 岩手(Iwate) [Ozawa territory], 東京(Tokyo) [Koike and TPFA rule but TPFA is pretty much discredited and will for sure lose to LDP-KP in 20210], 三重(Mie) [Local anti-JCP Center-Left opposition (New Politics Mie) very strong], 大阪(Osaka) (JRP is the ruling party here with KP), and 沖縄(Okinawa) (anti-base politics driven pro-base LDP to opposition]

Prefecture where LDP-KP has a majority but LDP does not have a majority by itself are 神奈川(Kanagawa) [anti-LDP governor nurtured an anti-LDP regional party that ate into the LDP base], 長野(Nagano) [JCP is very strong here], 滋賀(Shiga) [tradition of anti-LDP governors has nurtured anti-LDP regional parties that ate into LDP base], and 京都(Kyoto) [JCP very strong here.]

Note that KP has alliance with KP in all prefectures except for 大阪(Osaka) (KP in alliance with JRP) and 東京(Tokyo) (on paper KP has alliance with TPFA but that alliance is pretty much off and KP is de facto with LDP again without an open break with Koike's TPFA).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: EPG on August 07, 2018, 01:24:20 pm
You are a closer observer, but I wonder why you are so bullish on the CDP - DPP spread. It seems to me that there is little difference in underlying support between the two. They are now equally strong in each house of the Diet, and DPP will probably benefit from less vote-splitting within the centre-right opposition this time.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 08, 2018, 07:14:43 am
You are a closer observer, but I wonder why you are so bullish on the CDP - DPP spread. It seems to me that there is little difference in underlying support between the two. They are now equally strong in each house of the Diet, and DPP will probably benefit from less vote-splitting within the centre-right opposition this time.

Because while these parties do have policy positions that we think of as Right-Left and voting behavior often often matches those cleavages the reality is that policy position often are not the main determining factor for voting behavior.  On the PR section it comes down to party image.   

After the 2009-2012 DPJ fiasco the current image is LDP is the big tent party that gets things done while the DPJ is the big tent party that  cannot shoot straight and is merely the incompetent version of LDP.  So all attempts post-2012 by the DPJ to merge split and re-merge are attempts to shake this image merely makes it worse by showing the voting population that it has no principles (which in theory is fine because LDP has no principles but LDP has a image of getting results so that is OK.)   The voters wants a party that plays dirty and have no principles but gets things done can vote LDP and they do.  Those that does not want or need that combination would then want a "party with a difference" and would be principled enough not to M&A to victory.  DCP had a large surge in 2017 not because of its Left positions but more because it refused to accept into its party those that are not fully committed to repealing the 2015 Security Bill driving a lot of DP MPs into HP.   The way DPP was formed with was a merger of what remains of DP and the non-Koike party of HP (which is like 90% of HP) merely creates this image of DPJ II (an incompetent version of LDP.)   As it is DPP is also for repealing of the 2015 Security bill which it knew it had to take if it wanted an alliance with DCP.  Of course it is not at the top of the DPP agenda means that a DCP-DPP merger would not be possible.  But in the meantime those that reject the LDP style of politics are much more likely to gravitate toward DCP leaving DPP in the single digits of support. 

Of course I do think that the DCP style of politics might get it support into the 20s but most likely no more then that and will never be enough (even in an alliance with JCP) to defeat LDP-KP.  On the long run the way to take down LDP would be a big tent party like DPJ II.  I guess that will have to wait another few election cycles for the once in a generation LDP meltdown.  Parties like DCP can become a principled and more socially accepted version of JCP as opposition to LDP-KP in the meantime.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 08, 2018, 11:33:13 am
Okinawa's anti-base governor Takeshi Onaga (翁長 雄志) just pass away.  This is a big blow to the anti-LDP bloc in  Okinawa.  He was up for re-election in Dec 2018 and given the anti-base sentiment should be able to win re-election.  Now the anti-base bloc will have to come up with a candidate that can unite all the anti-base forces for the Dec 2018 governor race.  LDP now has a chance to recapture the governorship in Dec.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 09, 2018, 06:26:41 am
While parties like the LDP are announcing renomination of existing incumbents in the 2019 Upper House race the full list of candidates, especially on the opposition, will not be known until months from now.  But one can still look at some historical stats of key battleground prefectures to get a sense what is likely going to take place.

We do this by looking at the 2013 and 2016 Upper House results as well as the PR vote of 2013 2016 Upper House and 2017 Lower House grouped party type (LDP-KP, Center-Left, Third Pole, and JCP) to get a sense of if LDP-KP tend to over or under perform their PR vote in the prefecture in question in 2013 and 2016 followed by using the 2017 PR vote share result to get a sense of what the likely strengths of different blocs in 2019 is likely to be.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 09, 2018, 06:50:58 am
First battleground prefecture is 北海道(Hokkaido) where it used to have 2 seats per Upper House election cycle but have moved to 3 in 2016.  With 2 it is easy, it will be LDP followed by the main Center-Left party.  With 3 北海道(Hokkaido) has enough of an anti-LDP lean to make the 3rd seat up in the air.

In 2013 when it was 2 seats the results were
LDP          37.70% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ          24.36% elected  (incumbent)
NPD         14.70%
JCP          11.35%
YP            10.92%
HRP           0.97%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.41%
Center-Left 20.44% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   12.34%  (JRP YP)
NPD           11.73%  (NPD is Third Pole but they are 北海道(Hokkaido) based so I split them out)
JCP            10.76%
HRP             0.33%

So some LDP-KP PR vote (mostly the KP vote) went over to DPJ and NPD (more likely the LDP PR vote)

In 2016 NDP did not run and mostly endorsed LDP
LDP           25.47% elected  (incumbent)
DP             22.00% elected  (incumbent)
DP             19.29% elected
LDP           18.96% (endorsed by NPD but lost)
JCP             9.41%
PJK             1.34%
NPB            1.14%
LDP rebel    1.05%
HRP            0.83%
DP rebel      0.51%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.23%
Center-Left 34.03%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.38%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            11.44%
NPB             1.45%
HRP             0.57%

It seems there was some Third Pole PR vote that went to both LDP and DP.  Taking this into account it seems like 2013 some of the LDP-KP PR vote (most likely the KP PR vote) defected to DP.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       39.84%
Center-Left 36.27% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     2.76% (JRP)
NPD             8.37% (NPD is Third Pole but they are 北海道(Hokkaido) based so I split them out)
JCP              8.51%
HRP             0.52%

For 2019 the 2 2013 incumbents are likely to run.  1 is LDP and the other is an ex-DPJ independent but has a DCP lean so most likely will run a de jure or de facto DCP.  JCP will run a candidate of course but will have fairly low chance of getting into the top 3.  It is clear LDP will run another candidate to try to win 3rd seat.  DCP will most likely want to do the same.    Outstanding issues are  a) will DPP also try to run a candidate which will doom the second DCP candidate or can DCP work otu a deal with DPP for DPP to stand down?
b) will NPD run a candidate which is more likely to harm the second LDP candidate but will depend on the NPD cadndidate
c) how will the 2017 NPD PR vote flow in 2019.  In 2017 it seems the NPD PR vote actually split their support in the district vote between the LDP and the opposition.

Given the historic 北海道(Hokkaido) LDP under-performance relative to the LDP-KP PR, the 2017 record of the NPD PR vote to split their support in the district vote and making the assumption that DCP and DPP can work out a deal it seems more likely then not that DCP wins the 3rd seat to make the result LDP DCP DCP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 09, 2018, 11:48:05 am
青森(Aomori) is very likely a LDP win but the opposition won here in 2016 so it makes sense to at least be on the list of battleground.  This is a 1- seat district which went opposition in 2016 due to the anti-TPP wave.

In 2013 it was
LDP            51.33% elected
PLP            15.00%  (incumbent)
YP              12.47%
Ind(DPJ)     10.41%
JCP              9.48%
HRP             1.31%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       54.68%
Center-Left 19.93% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   15.49%  (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              9.35%
HRP             0.55%

So there were some LDP-KP PR voter defection to the various Center-Left candidates.  The PLP candidate was the incumbent so that was part of the reason.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP canddiate
DP              49.19%  elected
LDP            47.88%   (incumbent)
HRP             2.93%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       53.19%
Center-Left 30.45%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.55%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              8.92%
NPB             1.10%
HRP             0.80%

LDP-KP PR vote clearly flowed to the DP candidate as well as some protest votes to HRP.  The anti-TPP sentiment in the farm vote was a significant reason for this.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       49.89%
Center-Left 37.68% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.38% (JRP PJK)
JCP              8.31%
HRP             0.74%

So in theory given the track record of LDP under-performing the LDP-KP PR vote a united Grand alliance (Center-Left + JCP) candidate could win using the 2017 PR numbers.   On the other hand the LDP will have an incumbent running and without the anti-TPP wave of 2016 most likely LDP should still have the upper hand.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 09, 2018, 10:27:07 pm
岩手(Iwate) should go LP since this is Ozawa territory but the LDP always have a chance in any 1- member district.

In 2013 it was
PLP rebel    39.71% elected  (incumbent)
LDP            26.35%
PLP            14.86%
DPJ            10.12%
JCP              7.59%
HRP             1.36%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       41.97%
Center-Left 36.71% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   11.66%  (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              9.10%
HRP             0.55%

The incumbent PLP rebel who was with Ozawa for years ran and pulled in some LDP and Third Pole votes in addition to some Center-Left votes to win in a multi-polar race.  The PLP rebel later joined LDP in 2016.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the de facto PLP candidate
Ind(PLP)     53.34%  elected
LDP            41.04%
HRP             5.62%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       43.51%
Center-Left 35.79%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.73%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             11.24%
NPB             1.30%
HRP             1.42%

The LDP lost votes relative to the LDP-KP PR vote which partly is because of anti-TPP wave but like 2013 LDP seems to under-perform the LDP-KP PR vote.   Three seems to be both high anti-LDP and anti-Ozawa sentiment which mean a very high vote share for the HRP candidate.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       40.11%
Center-Left 47.17% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.32% (JRP PJK)
JCP              8.31%
HRP             0.66%

As long as JCP and the rest of the Center-Left backs the LP candidate should win.  The ex-PLP now LDP incumbent might outperform perhaps the LDP-KP PR vote now the anti-TPP wave is over but that is most likely not enough to defeat LP.  Ozawa's LP should continues to rule 岩手(Iwate).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 10, 2018, 07:10:04 am
宮城(Miyagi) is a 1- member district since 2016 from a 2- member district when it became a 1- member district battleground.

In 2013 it was
LDP            44.71% elected  (incumbent)
YP              23.35% elected
DPJ            22.81%  (incumbent)
JCP              8.11%
HRP             1.02%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       46.12%
Center-Left 20.97% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   24.09%  (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              8.53%
HRP             0.30%

District vote mostly matches the PR vote.  LDP under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote by a small margin.  The YP winner went to PFG/PJK after YP imploded in 2014 and recently joined LDP.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             51.10%  elected  (incumbent)
LDP           46.98%   (incumbent)
HRP             1.92%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       50.10%
Center-Left 32.07%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.11%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              9.99%
NPB             1.06%
HRP             0.69%

Here both the LDP and DP candidates were incumbents from 2010 when the district was a 2- member district so the LDP did not have an incumbency advantage and clearly under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote  which also included the anti-TPP wave.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.64%
Center-Left 39.89% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     5.59% (JRP PJK)
JCP              7.44%
HRP             0.66%

The YP turned LDP incumbent will run under the LDP PR list clearing the LDP incumbent from 2013 to run for re-election.   Even taking into account LDP's track record here of under-performing the LDP-KP vote, the 2013 and 2016 results had opposition incumbents while in 2019 it will be a LDP incumbent so you have to give the LDP the edge.  Of course it is possible that the opposition might recruit a key ex-DPJ MP to run as a DPP candidate which could swing the race away from LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 10, 2018, 04:54:09 pm
山形(Yamagata) is another 1- member district in Northern Japan that is a battleground.  

In 2013 it was
LDP            48.22% elected
GW            44.55%  (incumbent)
JCP              5.96%
HRP             1.27%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       50.86%
Center-Left  30.60% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    12.15% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              6.06%
HRP             0.32%

Here the GW incumbent (who was elected in 2007 as DPJ but then formed GW in 2012) was fairly popular and drove the LDP candidate to below the LDP-KP PR vote in a losing effort.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the same GW incumbent defeated in 2013 but now running as a pro-DP independent.
Ind(DP)     59.05%  elected  (ex-MP)
LDP           38.34%
HRP             2.16%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       54.27%
Center-Left 29.56%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.16%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              7.60%
NPB             1.62%
HRP             0.79%

The pro-DP ex-incumbent from 2013 won in a landslide on a wave of the personal vote and the anti-TPP tide.  The LDP candidate way under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote.  

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.51%
Center-Left 43.63% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.62% (JRP PJK)
JCP              5,83%
HRP             0.41%

While the popular opposition candidate of 2013 and 2016 will not be running in 2019, as long as the Center-Left and JCP can agree to back a common candidate the common opposition candidate should have the edge even if the LDP incumbent manages to match the performance of the LDP-KP PR vote.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 10, 2018, 07:55:03 pm
The last Northern Japan battleground prefecture is 福島(Fukushima.).  In 2013 福島(Fukushima) was made a 1- member district from a 2- member district.

In 2013 it was
LDP            56.59% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ            28.15%  (incumbent)
JCP              9.05%
SDP             4.19%
HRP             1.15%
Minor           0.87%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        49.16%
Center-Left  27.09% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    14.50% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              8.92%
HRP             0.33%

Both the LDP and DPJ candidates were incumbents from 2007 when it was a 2- member district.  LDP clearly outperformed the LDP-KP PR vote share and attracted a good part of the Third Pole PR vote.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             50.50%  elected  (incumbent)
LDP           47.24%   (incumbent)
HRP             2.25%
 
While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.78%
Center-Left 33.94%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     9.37%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            10.45%
NPB             0.90%
HRP             0.56%

Both the LDP and DP candidates were incumbent from the 2010 election when it was a 2- member district.  Again the LDP candidate was above to perform above the LDP-KP PR vote and attract some Third Pole PR vote although it was not enough to beat back the DP candidate.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       43.02%
Center-Left 44.59% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     4.12% (JRP PJK)
JCP              7.77%
HRP             0.51%

In 2019 even if the Center-Left and JCP can consolidate around a common candidate (most likely someone of DPP background) the fact that LDP tends to outperform the LDP-KP PR vote share and that the LDP candidate will be the lone incumbent means LDP should have the edge.  Of course if the united opposition can nominate a high quality candidate, like a possible ex-DPJ MP, then the race could tilt toward the opposition.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 11, 2018, 05:51:38 am
埼玉(Saitama) is a 3- member district which starting in 2019 will become a 4- member district.  As a 3- member district  埼玉(Saitama) results are simple: it will always be LDP KP and Center-Left.  As a 4- member district the results are less certain.

In 2013 it was
LDP            34.05% elected  (incumbent)
KP              20.41% elected
YP              16.52% elected   (incumbent)
DPJ            13.26%  (incumbent)
JCP            12.03%
SDP             2.24%
HRP             0.76%
Minor           0.73%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        48.22%
Center-Left  17.57% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    22.54% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             11.34%
HRP              0.33%

2013 was very bad for the Center-Left bloc and YP win the third seat instead of the DPJ candidate.
 The YP incumbent winner has a DPJ background and can best be described as a centrist feminist despite running for YP.  She clearly lost a bunch of Third Pole PR vote to LDP and KP despite winning even as she pulled in some Center-Left PR votes.  After YP imploded the YP winner eventually joined HP and stayed with HP after DPP split from HP despite the fact that the rump HP has become a very hard Right Third Pole party.

In 2016 things returned to normal and it was
LDP           29.19% elected  (incumbent)
DP             21.98% elected  (incumbent)
KP             20.87% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            15.81%
ORA            7.42%
PJK             3.83%
HRP            0.89%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       48.31%
Center-Left 25.43%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole   10.66%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            13.94%
NPB             1.16%
HRP             0.50%

The DP candidate lost Center-Left PR votes to both LDP/KP as well as JCP even as the DP candidate was elected.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.01%
Center-Left 43.06% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.74% (JRP)
JCP              8.73%
HRP             0.46%

The 2019 battle will see a LDP KP clearly winning a seat each.  Even though the Center-Left tends to under-perform the Center-Left PR vote DCP most likely will win a seat as well.  The last seat will be a battle between the YP incumbent elected in 2013 running for HP and the JCP.   It is not clear if DPP will nominate a candidate and if they did then it will become a 3 way battle for the 4th seat.  In fact if that were to take place LDP might nominate a second candidate to take advantage of the opposition split to make the battle for the 4th seat a 4 way battle.  As it is with Third Pole PR support falling a lot since 2013 you have the give the advantage to win the 4th seat to JCP given their relativity strong position in 埼玉(Saitama) and their track record of outperforming the JCP PR vote.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 11, 2018, 06:40:18 pm
神奈川(Kanagawa) is a 4- member district which means LDP and KP will win 1 seat each along with a likely Center-Left candidate.  The battle is usually about who wins the last one.  If the opposition is split enough then the LDP will try to pick one more off.  Even without that it is often a battle between a Center-Left opposition, JCP and possibly a Third Pole candidate for the last seat.

In 2013 it was
LDP            28.79% elected
YP              18.85% elected (ex-MP and ex-Governor)
KP              16.03% elected
DPJ            11.74% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            11.33%  (ex-MP)
JRP              6.17%  (incumbent)
GW              3.05%
SDP             1.96%
ISS              1.05%  (Far Right Monarchical)
Minor           0.77%
HRP             0.25%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        45.57%
Center-Left  18.63% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    25.39% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             10.19%
HRP              0.23%

The results mostly matches the PR vote with YP winning a seat in a very strong year for Third Pole.  The YP winner which is a former governor was very high profile later joined PFG/PJK before joining HP and is now the leader of the rump HP.

In 2016 it was
LDP           24.50% elected   (incumbent)
KP             15.35% elected
DP             14.19% elected  (incumbent on the PR section)
Ind(LDP)    12.77% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            11.89%
DP             10.94%   (incumbent)
ORA            5.33%
SDP            1.86%
PJK             1.23%
LDP rebel    0.78%
NPB            0.63%
HRP            0.53%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.10%
Center-Left 27.73%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole   10.74%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            12.46%
NPB             1.48%
HRP             0.49%

Here 2 DP and 1 JCP candidates fighting for the 2 seats beyond LDP and KP provoked a LDP faction to nominate an ex-YP incumbent from 2010 to try to take advantage of the opposition split over the objection of another LDP faction which was backing the official LDP candidate.  This intra-LDP battle actually provoked tactical voting from Center-Left and Third Pole PR votes for the 2 LDP candidates which actually led to the pro-LDP independent winning after which he was retroactively nominated by the LDP.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.13%
Center-Left 42.37% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.95% (JRP)
JCP              8.19%
HRP             0.35%

LDP and KP will win 1 seat each.  Most likely CDP and DPP will nominate a candidate each along with JCP and the HP incumbent will run as well.  Having 4 opposition candidates for the 2 remaining seats will most likely provoke LDP to run a second candidate as well.  Given local roots of the HP candidates and the strength of CDP PR vote most likely the 2 remaining seats will be CDP and HP.  Although it is possible JCP or LDP might win instead of the HP candidate with DPP candidate further behind.  But this will depend on the identity of the CDP DPP and possible LDP candidate.  

There are already rumors that 神奈川(Kanagawa) in 2019 will be a total chaotic fight with 2 LDP candidates, 1 KP, 2 DCP, 1 DPP, 1 HP, 1 JCP, 1 JRP and 1 SDP candidate.  If so it could upend all calculations and result in landslide defeats in terms of seats for either the ruling or opposition blocs.   In such a case I still think it will end up being LDP KP CDP JCP although the result will be quite volatile.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 12, 2018, 08:20:17 am
山梨(Yamanashi) is a 1- member district which always has been a swing prefecture.  

In 2013 it was
LDP            37.30% elected
Ind(DPJ)     19.81%
LDP rebel    16.18%
YP              15.38%  (incumbent)
JCP              9.44%
Minor           1.04%
HRP             0.84%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        48.54%
Center-Left  19.75% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    22.56% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              8.76%
HRP             0.39%

The LDP rebel took in a bunch of LDP-KP and Third Pole PR vote.  

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate but with DP rebel with YP background (was a DPJ winner in 2007 and lost in 2013 as the YP candidate)
DP              43.02%  elected
LDP            37.75%
DP rebel     16.71%  (ex-MP)
HRP             2.52%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       50.18%
Center-Left 32.10%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.32%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              9.20%
NPB             1.34%
HRP             0.86%

Here the DP rebel ate more info the LDP-KP PR vote share than the Center-Left PR vote share with the DP candidate winning by a comfortable margin.  

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.13%
Center-Left 41.27% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.46% (JRP)
JCP              7.38%
HRP             0.77%

Given the track record of the LDP candidate having problems holding the LDP-KP PR vote share as long as the Center-Left and JCP can get behind a common candidate (most likely from CDP) most likely LDP will lose this seat despite the LDP incumbent advantage but this one will most likely be very close.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 12, 2018, 02:25:49 pm
東京(Tokyo) which was a 5- member district until it became a 6- member district in 2016 will also be a battleground given the fact that with so many members to be elected the threshold to be elected were always low.  With a 5- or 6- member district LDP KP and JCP will win a seat each with the rest depending on the structure of candidates.  Since the number of candidates were large I will focus on the large vote share candidates (above 1%.)

In 2013 it was
LDP            18.88% elected  (incumbent)
KP              14.15% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            12.49% elected
Ind(SDP)    11.83% elected
LDP            10.86% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ              9.80%  (incumbent)
JRP              7.34%
YP                5.68%
DPJ rebel      4.20%  (incumbent)
ISS              1.37%  (Far Right Monarchical)
GW              1.25%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        44.14%
Center-Left  17.27% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    24.63% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             13.71%
HRP              0.25%

LDP-KP candidates mostly retained the LDP-KP PR vote while the Third Pole candidates clearly lost Third Pole PR vote share to Center-Left candidates.  The DPJ rebel cost the Center-Left a second winner beyond SDP backed anti-nuclear independent.  The anti-nuclear independent later joined PLP which later became LP.  

In 2016 it was
DP             18.05% elected  (incumbent)
LDP           14.22% elected  (incumbent)
KP             12.38% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            10.70% elected
LDP           10.36% elected
DP              8.16% elected  (incumbent)
ORA            7.54% (ex-MP)
DP rebel      4.98%
Ind(PLP)      4.13% (Far Left and most likely pulled in JCP PR vote)
PJK             1.65%
SDP            1.51%
VPA            1.32%
DP rebel      1.09%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.81%
Center-Left 27.39%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole   10.73%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            14.21%
NPB             1.50%
HRP             0.37%

Here LDP-KP way under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote and lost most of them to Center-Left candidates.  Poor vote allocation between the 2 DP candidates nearly lost DP a seat to ORA.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       41.28%
Center-Left 41.98% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     4.00% (JRP PJK)
JCP            10.37%
HRP             0.27%

It is clear that LDP will nominate 2 candidates, JCP 1 candidate, LP will nominate their incumbent.  CDP might nominate 1 or 2 candidates, DPP will nominate 1 candidate and JRP will nominate 1 candidate.  LDP KP and JCP will for sure win 1 seat each.  CDP LP and the second LDP candidates are all likely to win.  JRP might take one of them down but that seems unlikely.  Main risk for CDP is that 2 CDP candidates plus a DPP candidate could split the Center-Left vote so that JRP comes in and take one of the CDP seats.  To some extent the second LDP candidate could be also vulnerable depending on the LDP vote split between the 2 LDP candidates.        


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 12, 2018, 05:42:14 pm
新潟(Niigata) was a 2- member district until 2016 until it became a 1- member district.  Before 2016 the result is easy, 1 LDP and 1 Center-Left opposition.  After 2016 this became a battleground prefecture.

In 2013 it was
LDP            43.01% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ            19.30% elected  (incumbent from PR list)
PLP            15.57%  (incumbent)
JRP            10.14%
JCP              5.68%
SDP             4.43%
LDP rebel     1.47%
HRP             0.49%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        48.32%
Center-Left  26.48% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    17.36% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               7.48%
HRP              0.36%

The PLP candidate was the incumbent elected in 2007 on the DPJ ticket and lost re-election.  Center-Left candidates clearly pulled in votes from LDP-KP and Third Pole PR voters.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the PLP incumbent loser from 2013 as a common candidate running as an independent.  
Ind(PLP)     49.02%  elected (ex-MP)
LDP            48.82%  (incumbent)
HRP             2.16%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       51.93%
Center-Left 31.65%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.14%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              8.00%
NPB             1.59%
HRP             0.70%

Clearly the LDP candidate lost a bunch of LDP-KP PR vote to lose in a close race.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.29%
Center-Left 42.58% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.20% (JRP)
JCP              7.25%
HRP             0.68%

We have to assume that both the LDP and DPJ turned CDP incumbents will run.  If so as long as the Center-Left bloc and stay united and get JCP to back a common candidate the opposition should win given the LDP track record of losing LDP-KP PR votes.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 13, 2018, 07:02:35 am
長野(Nagano) was a 2- member district until 2016 when it became a 1- member district which turned it into a battleground prefecture.  JCP is very strong here and if the Center-Left can form an alliance with the JCP then LDP is mostly destined to lose.

In 2013 it was
LDP            37.24% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ            30.05% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            15.77%
YP              10.91%
DPJ rebel      5.27%
HRP             0.77%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        42.21%
Center-Left  24.79% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    18.70% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             13.87%
HRP              0.43%

The Center-Left candidates pulled in LDP-KP and Third Pole PR votes mostly, it seems, as tactical voting to ensure that the JCP candidate does not win.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             52.45%  elected
LDP           45.69%   (incumbent)
HRP             1.86%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.97%
Center-Left 33.68%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.82%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            12.61%
NPB             1.20%
HRP             0.72%

Despite the LDP incumbency advantage the LDP candidate seems to have just pulled in the LDP-KP PR vote and nothing else in a losing effort as the DPJ incumbent from 2010 retired.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       37.56%
Center-Left 45.17% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     5.63% (JRP)
JCP            11.04%
HRP             0.60%

So as long as the Center-Left parties can form an alliance with JCP then DPJ turned DPP incumbent should be set for re-election over the LDP incumbent.  If the JCP runs separately then the LDP will be at a slight disadvantage and we could have a battle on our hands.   


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 13, 2018, 10:49:34 am
三重(Mie) is a 1- member district which has a pro-opposition lean since the early 1990s  and as a result is a battleground district.

In 2013 it was
LDP            44.23% elected
DPJ            37.62% (incumbent)
JRP              8.39%
JCP              7.02%
LDP rebel     1.76%
HRP             0.98%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        47.25%
Center-Left  27.23% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    18.22% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               6.92%
HRP              0.38%

The DPJ incumbent was fairly popular so he was able to pull in some LDP-KP and Third Pole PR votes in a losing effort.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             49.72%  elected (incumbent)
LDP           47.48% 
HRP             2.81%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.75%
Center-Left 37.79%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.52%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              7.59%
NPB             0.62%
HRP             0.74%

The local Center-Left forces are fairly hostile to JCP and resisted the JCP alliance until the last minute.  The LDP candidate was to over-perform the LDP-KP PR vote despite the DP incumbency advantage is a sign of this.  In the end it was not enough and the DP incumbent was able to win.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.84%
Center-Left 41.45% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     4.62% (JRP)
JCP              6.35%
HRP             0.73%

Most of the Center-Left forces in 三重(Mie) post the DP-HP merger into DPP joined up with a local 三重(Mie) based party which is pro-CDP.  So assuming the Center-Left bloc forms an alliance with JCP it will be a pro-CDP independent that will run as the common opposition candidate.   This realignment has improved the relationship between the Center-Left and JCP and most likely the joint opposition candidate can pull out a win against the LDP incumbent even though it will be close. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 13, 2018, 12:54:26 pm
滋賀(Shiga) is a 1- member district which go LDP but since it was competitive in the 2000-2010 period one can argue that it is a battleground district.

In 2013 it was
LDP            53.42% elected
DPJ            29.24% (incumbent)
JCP            15.12%
HRP             2.22%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        46.22%
Center-Left  21.21% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    21.67% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             10.46%
HRP              0.43%

It seems here the LDP candidate drew in a good portion of the Third Pole PR vote to make a win very easy as JCP also ate into the Center-Left PR vote.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
LDP             52.22% elected
DP              45.78% (incumbent)
HRP              2.00%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.42%
Center-Left  25.33%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole    14.36%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             11.44%
NPB             0.74%
HRP             0.70%

Here LDP pulled in a good part of the Third Pole PR vote despite the DP incumbent advantage which gave it a comfortable victory despite Center-Left-JCP opposition unity. 

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.26%
Center-Left 35.74% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole   11.18% (JRP)
JCP              8.29%
HRP             0.53%

In theory given the LDP-KP PR vote LDP is vulnerable.  But the reality is that in  滋賀(Shiga) the LDP always seems to pull in a lot of Third Pole PR vote which should add to the LDP incumbency advantage and hand the LDP a fairly simple and significant victory. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 14, 2018, 07:13:11 am
大阪(Osaka) which is a 4- member district is unique in the sense that given the strength of the JRP which grew out of a 大阪(Osaka) LDP regional splinter means that beyond LDP and KP winning a seat each the JRP will win a seat with the last seat a battle between JRP JCP, the main Center-Left candidate, and potentially a second LDP candidate.

In 2013 it was
JRP             28.83% elected
LDP            22.31% elected
KP              19.02% elected
JCP             12.79% elected  
DPJ              9.20%  (incumbent)
YP                4.31%
NPD             1.54%
JRP rebel      0.57%
JRP rebel      0.55%
Minor           0.48%
HRP             0.39%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        42.67%
Center-Left  10.41% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    34.75% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             11.92%
HRP              0.26%

Most the PR vote went to the candidates in their respective bloc.  Inability for JRP and YP to coordinate their votes lost YP a seat when there votes were there to take the 4th seat from JCP.

In 2016 with YP out of the picture ORA nominated 2 candidates and it was
LDP           20.41% elected  
ORA           19.50% elected  
KP             18.21% elected  (incumbent)
ORA           17.95% elected  
JCP            12.18%
DP              9.32%  (incumbent)
PJK             1.02%
NPB            0.98%
HRP            0.44%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       38.50%
Center-Left  12.14%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole    36.77%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             11.37%
NPB             0.82%
HRP             0.39%

ORA was able to capture 2 seats.  There seems to be some tactical voting by Center-Left PR voters for both JCP and ORA since the DP candidate clearly was not in the running.  ORA mostly won 2 seats by being able to equally distribute its vote share between its two candidates.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       43.01%
Center-Left 20.69% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole   26.86% (JRP)
JCP              9.10%
HRP             0.34%

In 2019 it seems that the JRP vote base has shrunk such so that it is unlikely they can run 2 candidates and expect both to win.  The it comes down who will win the 4th seat, CDP or JCP.  Given the relative decline of JCP in 大阪(Osaka) it seems DCP will have a better shot.  Of course JRP will run 2 candidates anyway and if DPP also runs a candidate then the LDP might also run a 2nd candidate to take advantage of the opposition split.  More likely than not CDP will win the 4th seats but it really depends on the candidate nomination structure.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 14, 2018, 09:57:04 pm
兵庫(Hyōgo) was a 2- member district until 2016 when it became a 3- member district.   A 2- member district usually is 1 seat for LDP and 1 for the main Center-Left party.  In a 3- member district it is 2 LDP or 1 LDP 1 KP followed by 1 for the main Center-Left party.  But in 兵庫(Hyōgo) JRP is strong and took the seat of the main Center-Left party since 2013.

In 2013 it was
LDP            37.78% elected  (incumbent)
JRP            26.05% elected   
DPJ            14.95% (incumbent)
JCP              9.60%
YP               7.58%
GP               2.53%
HRP             1.52%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        46.49%
Center-Left  16.22% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    27.33% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               9.59%
HRP              0.37%

There seems to be significant tactical voting by LDP-KP PR voters for JRP to defeat DPJ. 

In 2016 兵庫(Hyōgo)  turned into a 3- member seats which had KP running a candidate
LDP           26.33% elected  (incumbent)
KP             22.24% elected 
ORA           21.79% elected   
DP             17.23%  (incumbent)
JCP             9.39%
HRP            2.05%
PJK             0.98%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.09%
Center-Left  19.62%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole    21.37%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             10.30%
NPB             0.72%
HRP             0.91%

KP was at risk of losing the 3rd seat to DP and made a massive push on the ground and got tactical voting by Center-Left PR voters for KP to push KP into second place and DP into 4th place with ORA winning the 3rd and last seat.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.74%
Center-Left 32.00% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole   13.65% (JRP)
JCP              8.14%
HRP             0.47%

For 2019 it seems JRP level of support has fallen to the point that they are unlikely to win the 3rd and last seat again a concentration of the Center-Left PR vote around a common candidate, most likely CDP.  If DPP were to run it would be more competitive but in the end unless there will be LDP-KP PR tactically vote for JRP, CDP should win the 3rd and last seat.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 15, 2018, 07:16:51 am
愛媛(Ehime) is a 1- member district deep inside the LDP Southern Japan bastion.  In 2016 it surprising became competitive so it might make sense to call it out as a possible battleground even though it seems LDP should be destined to win.

In 2013 the Center-Left failed to nominate a candidate and it was
LDP            66.60% elected
YP              18.37%
JCP            10.96%
HRP             2.53%
Minor           1.54%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        59.39%
Center-Left  14.10% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    18.87% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               7.11%
HRP              0.53%

In 2013 this district was so noncompetitive that DPJ failed to nominate or back a candidate.  The Center-Left PR vote split their vote between the LDP and JCP candidate.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed an ex-DPJ MP candidate running as a DP backed independent
LDP             49.58% elected  (incumbent)
Ind(DP)       48.30% (ex-MP)
HRP              2.12%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       58.39%
Center-Left  23.71%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     9.05%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              6.97%
NPB             1.15%
HRP             0.73%

The ex-MP opposition common candidate was fairly popular locally plus the anti-TPP wave pulled in a large number of LDP-KP PR votes to get the race to neck-to-neck and then a narrow loss to a LDP incumbent.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       51.78%
Center-Left 36.07% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     6.02% (JRP)
JCP              5.57%
HRP             0.55%

LDP-KP support in 2017 has dropped from 2016 so if the Center-Left-JCP can back the same popular ex-MP as its candidate in 2019 they might have a chance to pull off an upset like the the 2016 near upset.  But without the 2016 anti-TPP wave this seems unlikely although it could be close again like 2016.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 17, 2018, 10:14:02 am
大分(Ōita) is a 1- member district which always had an opposition lean (SDP is fairly strong here) and as a result will be a battleground.

In 2013 it was
LDP            49.98% elected
Ind(SDP)    27.30%
JCP            11.01%
YP               8.87%
HRP             2.84%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        54.28%
Center-Left  24.06% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    14.26% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               6.86%
HRP              0.55%

The Ind(SDP) candidate given the local SDP strength and network was able to pull in a bunch LDP-KP and Third Pole PR votes but due to local Center-Left rivalries between SDP and other Center-Left parties some of the Center-Left PR vote went to JCP.  In the end it did not matter as in this very LDP year the LDP incumbent easily won.   

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP incumbent
DP              48.13% elected (incumbent)
LDP             47.94% 
HRP              3.92%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       52.70%
Center-Left  33.22%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.68%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              6.85%
NPB             0.67%
HRP             0.88%

The DP incumbent advantage was on clear display as the LDP lost LDP-KP PR votes to DP which pulled out a close victory.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.28%
Center-Left 45.08% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     2.71% (JRP)
JCP              5.13%
HRP             0.80%

In theory in 2019 if the Center-Left-JCP can get around a common candidate they should be in a good position to win.  I still have this race as lean LDP because of the LDP incumbency advantage plus since there is no Center-Left incumbent the SDP would most likely insist on running its candidate as the common Center-Left-JCP United Front candidate which would face resistance from other Center-Left forces. Even if SDP pull that off the local intra-Center-Left rivalries would mean that their bases could not fuse and most likely will lose to the LDP even if in theory the votes are there to defeat the LDP incumbent.   


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 17, 2018, 09:30:03 pm
The last battleground is 1- member district 沖縄(Okinawa) which has always leans opposition especially with the advent of the US base issue but one can never count the LDP out in a 1- member district.

In 2013 it was
OSMP         51.13% elected  (incumbent)
LDP            45.40%
Minor           1.82%
HRP             1.64%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        42.29%
Center-Left  30.28% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    17.40% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               9.39%
HRP              0.64%

Here JCP backed a common opposition candidate in the form of a Left wing local OMSP incumbant which defeated the LDP candidate with the Third Pole PR vote split between the LDP and OMSP candidate.

In 2016 the same Center-Left-JCP grand alliance took place in backing a common independent opposition candidate
Ind(OPPN)   57.86% elected
LDP             40.52% (incumbent) (backed by ORA)
HRP              1.61%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       42.91%
Center-Left  29.29%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     9.75%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            15.64%
NPB             1.20%
HRP             1.21%

Despite ORA's support the LDP incumbent did not seem to have gained much Third Pole PR vote and in fact lost some LDP-KP PR vote and lost by a mile.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       39.70%
Center-Left 39.79% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     7.29% (JRP)
JCP            12.07%
HRP             1.16%

Clearly if the Center-Left forces run a common candidate with JCP support it should win.  Most likely that will be the OMSP incumbent.   But if JCP fail to back the OMSP candidate and run its own candidate then the LDP will have a chance to win.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 21, 2018, 05:05:04 am
LDP Prez election is slated to 9/20

Abe has not announced his re-election bid but is expected to do so shortly.  LDP changed its rules over a year ago to allow Abe to run for an unprecedented 3rd term 3 year term.  Until 2015 this race will be competitive with Abe's 2012 rival Shigeru Ishiba running.   Seiko Noda will also run like in 2015 but like 2015 might struggle to get the 20 MP support to be put on the ballot.  Abe has the support of 5 out of the 7 LDP factions. 

There will be 810 votes (405 LDP MPs get a vote each, and 405 net votes from LDP local chapter vote.)  If no one gets a majority on the first round the 405 MPs votes again in a second round to determine the winner.   Abe won in 2012 over Ishiba by winning the second round amoung LDP MPs after Ishiba crushed Abe in the LDP rank and file vote but failed to capture a majority.

Ishiba's cannot hope to win but could force a second round by winning a landslide in the LDP rank and file vote and hope that Noda wins enough LDP MPs to deny Abe a first round victory.  Of course with ABe's overwhelming advantage among LDP MPs there is no way to stop him from winning on a second round.

I am hoping that Foreign Minister Tarō Kōno resigns and runs just like he did in 2009.  Tarō Kōno was and still is my favorite Japanese politician.     Most likely he will stay out and bide his time until a post-Abe era.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 23, 2018, 04:55:07 am
DPP leadership race is slated for Sept 4th. 

It will be 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) vs 津村 啓介(Tsumura Keisuke).  Both have DPJ backgrounds and are MPs from Southern Japan (香川(Kagawa) for 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō)  and 岡山(Okayama) for 津村 啓介(Tsumura Keisuke))

玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō)  is for a Grand coalition with all non-JCP opposition parties to take on LDP-KP while 津村 啓介(Tsumura Keisuke) does not rule out JCP being part of that coalition.  I think in the end if DCP-SDP-LP forms an opposition alliance with JCP DPP might have no choice but to join or become marginalized.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on August 27, 2018, 02:36:12 am
Abe officially enters the race for LDP Prez for an unprecedented third term.  The Abe cabinet approval rating curve turns positive as several polls show that Abe now slightly polling ahead of  Ishiba whereas before Abe officially entered the race Abe was clearly behind.

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 03, 2018, 06:25:36 am
The Okinawa gubernatorial election will be 9/30

In addition to the pro-LDP independent the anti-base opposition unity candidate would be LP MP 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) who is the first Amerasian MP ever.  While this makes sense as the anti-base governor 翁長 雄志(Onaga Takeshi) who just passed away had anointed 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) as his successor having him resign has MP seat to run does bring LP down to only 5 MPs which is the minimum it needs to continue to get government funding.  So in the 2019 Upper House elections LP has to retain the 1 MP it has or it risk losing official party status.

As for the Okinawa gubernatorial election itself I think that  玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) should have the upper hand given his name recognition and that the anti-base bloc does seem to have a majority support in the prefecture.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 14, 2018, 06:30:24 am
Latest rounds of polling shows Abe cabinet approval rating holding on to a slightly net positive position
()

Party support has LDP surging to a six month high
()

While CDP support is falling as the 2017 novelty factor wears off as DPP rises a bit (at still abysmal levels)
()

To stop LDP landslides in the future CDP DPP and JCP will have to find ways to cooperate at the tactical level.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 14, 2018, 06:37:57 am
The Okinawa gubernatorial election on 9/30 will see LDP backed 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) who is currently the pro-LDP mayor of 宜野湾市(Ginowan) vs the anti-base opposition LP MP 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī).

It will be an election of head vs heart.  Voting for the anti-base anti-LDP candidate would mean continuation of stalemate over the base relocation plan which is in line with the anti-base majority opinion.  Voting for the pro-LDP candidate means relenting on the base relocation and, given how critical the Japanese government views this issue, large amount of subsidies and other goodies for the prefecture in return.  What the Okinawa majority really want is for the US base to go away but given the current USA-PRC strategic stalemate in the Pacific there is no way that can take place.   I think the logical thing for the voting population to do is to vote for the pro-LDP candidate and get some good bribes and goodies to giving up their ideals.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 15, 2018, 06:04:32 am
Kyodo poll of LDP rank-and-file on LDP leader has it at Abe 55.5 Ishiba 34.9

48.2 percent supported Abe's intention to submit to the next Diet session his party's proposal for a constitutional revision, while 37.5 percent were opposed.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 19, 2018, 08:59:04 am
Some of the local Okinawa polls seems to show that the anti-base united opposition candidate 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) has a slight lead over pro-LDP candidate 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 19, 2018, 12:17:10 pm
UBS came out with a report that the number of votes Ishiba  gets in the LDP Prez election tomorrow will be a proxy for his influence in the LDP.  This is important because Ishiba  has economic orthodox views whereas Abe has hetrodox views.  The market prefer the era of full-throttle stimulus policies under Abe would be fearful of any growth in  Ishiba's support as a proxy for the likely policy model in a post Abe world after 2021.

UBS's model is
         
Market          Abe vote      Ishiba vote     Chance
Impact            610+            200-             15%
Neutral         540-610       200-270           50%
Negative          540-            270+             30%
Negative          405-            406+               5%  (Ishiba victory)

They’ll be competing for 810 votes, 405 from the party’s MPs and the same number apportioned to its rank-and-file members by local chapter.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 20, 2018, 06:39:37 am
LDP Prez election.  Abe wins with around 68.5% of the electoral vote.  It was

               LDP MPs      LDP local chapter         Total
Abe            329                     224                  553
Ishiba          73                     181                  254

3 MP abstained.  Abe over-performed a bit on the LDP MP vote and under-performed a bit in the LDP rank-and-file vote.  

Ishiba-Abe margin is with Blue is where Abe is ahead and Red is where Ishiba is ahead
()

Abe vote share is
()

Ishiba vote share is
()


Abe does very well in 山口県(Yamaguchi) which is his home prefecture so it is not a surprise.  Not clear why Abe also does very well in 和歌山(Wakayama)

Ishiba does very well in 島根(Shimane) and 鳥取(Tottori) which is his home prefecture and the one next door so it is not a surprise.  He also does very well in 高知(Kōchi) which is not clear why.

In the large population centers around Greater Tokyo it seems to be neck-to-neck with a slight Abe edge but Tokyo itself is more decisively pro-Abe.

Overall in Northern and Central Japan where local LDP clientelist power barons have  less power the vote seem to more break down to LDP voter view toward Abe so the results tends to not be in favor one candidate or another.  In the South where both candidates are from regional factor of the two candidates plus the greater power of the LDP clientelist machines means a more extreme result by prefecture depending on how each local LDP machine wants to go.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 20, 2018, 12:00:11 pm
Kyodo came out with a fairly negative analysis of Abe's less than expected scale of victory which has the headline

FOCUS: Abe may hit rocky road after not decisively winning party race

Quote
Abe beat former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba 553 to 254 in Thursday's election, with more than 80 percent of lawmakers casting their ballots for the incumbent. But when it comes to the rank-and-file members' votes, Abe garnered support from 55 percent, while Ishiba was backed by 45 percent.

Quote
Political commentator Kichiya Kobayashi said Ishiba's popularity among ordinary members of the ruling party -- whose voices are believed to be closer to public opinion than those of LDP lawmakers -- shows that he had a "good fight."

Quote
Masahiro Iwasaki, a political science professor at Nihon University, expressed doubt Abe's plan will go smoothly as the LDP's junior coalition partner Komeito party has remained cautious over his drive for constitutional amendment.

Quote
In the election, Ishiba is believed to have benefitted from growing frustration among rank-and-file party members, particularly those in rural areas, where many have complained about not experiencing the fruits of economic recovery.

Quote
Norio Toyoshima, a Tokyo-based political commentator, said an "overwhelming victory" was needed for Abe to advance difficult negotiations with world leaders, as other countries in general gauge the strength of political power through election results.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: EPG on September 20, 2018, 04:55:46 pm
Ok, but it's still a good outcome for Abe to get a third term as leader, which wasn't necessarily expected 6 months ago.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 22, 2018, 05:48:05 pm
Ok, but it's still a good outcome for Abe to get a third term as leader, which wasn't necessarily expected 6 months ago.

Well, after Abe survived the 2015 security bill crisis and the 2017 various crony crisis I always figured he will survive 2018 and the 2018 LDP Prez race.  Of course Abe does well when he is viewed as focusing on the economy vs other national security issues.

Latest Kyodo poll taken after Abe won re-election highlights this, summery of the poll are:

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval 47.4(+3.2)/40.0(-2.4)
Support/opposition to Abe's plans for Constitutional reform 35.7/51.0
Positive/negative on Abe being in control of the political agenda 33.6/57.4
Support/Neutral/Oppose Abe being re-elected LDP Prez 29.7/44.7/24.9
What should Abe Cabinet focus on: Pensions (41.1), medical and nursing(39.9), constitutional revision(7.2)

And understand that Abe is really pushing for Constitutional Reform light which leaves  the Pacifist Clause 9 intact expect to add a phrase that says the Japan Self-Defense force is legal.  The traditional LDP position has been to remove the entire Clause.  Abe watered it down to be able to pass a referendum.  But it seems Abe's lower personal popularity is dragging down this project in the public opinion sphere.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 26, 2018, 07:14:22 am
Magazine 週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) came out with their first projections of the 2019 Upper House elections.  Usually media projections this early are always too negative on the LDP so we should see their projection as a floor for the LDP.

()

Which is

            District    PR      Total
LDP          34        18       52
CDP          13        13      26
KP             6          7       13
JCP            3          4        7
DPP          12         4       16
JRP            2         3         5
HP             1         1         2
LP              1         0         1
SDP           0          0         0
OPPN         2                     2
-----------------------------------
              74        50       124

The projection seems to indicate that the Center-Left parties (CDP, DPP, LP, SDP) will form an alliance with JCP in the 1- member districts and sweep the 1- member districts in the 東北(Tōhoku or Northeast) and 九州(Kyushu) to the benefit of DPP.  The implied PR vote seems to imply something like

            Vote share     Seats
LDP       34.0%            18
CDP       25.0%            13
KP         13.5%              7
JCP         7.5%              4
JRP         6.0%              3
DPP        7.5%              4
HP          2.0%              1
SDP        1.5%             0
LP           1.5%             0

My current projection is

            District    PR      Total
LDP          39        18       57
CDP          12        13      25
KP             7          7       14
JCP            2          4        6
DPP           7          3       10
JRP            1          2        3
HP             1          1        2
LP              2         1        3
SDP           1         1         2
OPPN         2                    2
-----------------------------------
              74        50       124


Where my PR projection is something like

            Vote share     Seats
LDP          33.5%         18
CDP          24.5%        13
KP            13.5%          7
JCP            9.0%          4
DPP            6.5%         3
JRP            5.0%          2
SDP           2.5%          1
LP              2.0%          1
HP              2.0%         1
NPB            0.5%
HRP            0.5%
PJK             0.5%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2018, 04:02:20 pm
Okinawa governor election tomorrow.  There is a surge in early voting which is partly because there is a incoming hurricane which could make it hard to vote election day.   Joint opposition candidate, half-American and a MP 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) still seems to be slightly ahead of pro-LDP candidate 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: EPG on September 29, 2018, 04:37:41 pm
Yes, not the best day to have an election in Okinawa.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: EPG on September 29, 2018, 04:40:48 pm
And HP up there is the new Kibou party.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2018, 04:58:22 pm
And HP up there is the new Kibou party.

Yes, in Okinawa JRP and HP are pro-LDP and will back LDP mostly because the anti-base bloc clearly leans left with heavy JCP influences.   Both are sort of ambiguous on the USA base issue most because they both know that the anti-base position is the majority Okinawa position.  Of course there is still an issue of head vs heart.  The pro-LDP candidate is offering all sort of goodies and subsidies in return for looking the other way on the USA base.  In 2014 PROR (which is local proto-JRP) also ran and split the anti- anti-based bloc but it did not make a difference as the anti-base united opposition won an absolute majority. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2018, 05:04:55 pm
Yes, not the best day to have an election in Okinawa.

What Okinawa looks like day before the election.
()

Poseidon seems to be on the side of Abe.  In 2017 Lower house general elections a huge storm lowered turnout and most likely added to the LDP-KP victory.  Now a storm hits Okinawa which could help lower turnout and throw the election to the pro-LDP candidate. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2018, 05:10:53 pm
One of Okinawa's 2 main newspapers says that it is neck-to-neck with anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) slightly ahead.

()

In Okinawan almost all mainstream media are anti-base so the impact of the media is mostly to work against the pro-LDP candidate.   


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2018, 06:17:32 pm
The Okinawa base stalemate reminds me a lot of the HK Chief Execute Election stalemate. 

Current the HK Chief Executive is elected by an electoral college whose selection is by the PRC government.  The Democratic and Localist blocs demand the selection of the HK  Chief Execute is based on direct election by the HK population.  PRC says "Yes we can agree to that  but we get to vet the candidates ahead of time."  The Democratic and Localist blocs reject this proposal even as a interim  solution because they fear that if this solution is implemented the population support for their ideal solution would dissipate.     

The USA Futenma base in Okinawa is in Naha and right in the middle of a heavily populated area which is the cause of many problems and incidents. 
()

The anti-base activist bloc wants the USA completely out of Okinawa.  The government of Japan and USA are offering to move the base to a remote location with no inhabitants.  The anti-base bloc reject this proposal even as an interim  solution because they fear that if this solution is implemented the population support for their ideal solution would dissipate.   



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2018, 06:33:00 pm
In 2014 Okinawa elections around 700K voters voted, around 200K voted early.  This time 400K voted early.  No idea how many will vote on election day but most likely total turnout will still fall.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 05:40:53 am
2014 Okinawa turnout was 64.13%.  The way in day voting is going turnout will most likely be around 61%-62%.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 06:02:32 am
Voting ends.  Various media outlets using exit polls calls the race for anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) right away.  I guess the gap is not close.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 06:39:17 am
Exit polls show that anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) with around 57% of the vote
()

Exit poll result by party support
()

Party support breakdown
LDP    33
CDP     6
DPP     1
KP       2
JCP     4
LP       2
SDP    5
None 41

None leans left all things equal.  

Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) failed to win the entire LDP-KP vote.  Opposition to the base by some LDP-KP voters is the most likely reason.

Eyeball guess of vote by party support are

LDP:  anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) 17.90%  Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) 80.17%
KP:  anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) 33.33%  Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) 66.67%
None: anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) 69.78%  Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) 28.89%

Eyeball guess of exit poll for overall vote
anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) 56.69%  Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) 42.08%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 07:02:48 am
With 0.6% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.3% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     44.4%

which pretty much match exit polls.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 07:37:51 am
Now both NHK and the local RBC also calls the race for anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) as the pro-LDP village votes comes in and confirm the relative strength of anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 08:14:17 am
With 46.1% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.4% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     45.3%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 08:38:10 am
With 70.5% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.3% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     45.3%

Been pretty stable for a while.  Most likely final result will look something like this.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 08:45:20 am
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) headquarters after the election was called by NHK.  The scale of defeat was quite a surprise to the LDP camp that expected a narrow defeat at worst.
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 08:54:38 am
With 70.5% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.1% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     45.2%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 08:58:54 am
With 91.9% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.4% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     45.3%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 09:13:18 am
With 94.6% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   55.3% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     44.3%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: PSOL on September 30, 2018, 10:31:31 am
So is the base the only major issue in Okinawa , this blowout seems to need more than that.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 12:42:31 pm
All votes counted

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   55.1% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     43.9%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 12:45:13 pm
So is the base the only major issue in Okinawa , this blowout seems to need more than that.

At this stage it is mostly about the bases.  The majority Okinawa opinion is that: with all these bases if and when there is a USA-PRC war the PLA will hit  Okinawa  hard and there might even be a PLA ground invasion of Okinawa.  In which case it will be 1945 all over again. Why is it always us.  Why cannot Mainland Japan take some brunt of the risk.

Frankly I think the Okinawa electorate did not vote wisely.  Surely they must know it does not matter how they vote, given the current USA-PRC strategic standoff in East Asia there is no way these bases  are going anywhere.  You might as well vote LDP and get as much goodies and freebies out of it as possible.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2018, 12:46:27 pm
Anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) won around 397K votes which is more than any other politician in Okinawan electoral history.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on October 04, 2018, 08:13:37 am
Abe cabinet approval curve.  No bounce from Abe's victory in LDP Prez contest and the cabinet re-shuffle.   
()

Historically cabinet re-shuffle does lead to a bounce in cabinet approval.  Abe timed his 2014 and 2017 mid-term election a couple of months after a cabinet reshuffle to take advantage of a temporary surge in cabinet approval rating.     
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on October 29, 2018, 06:35:18 am
Abe cabinet approval curve slowly going into reverse
()

LDP support falling a bit (Red) while CDP support is stabilizing (Blue)
()

The main takeaway here is CDP is still the main opposition party to LDP.  In many ways that is good news for LDP.  Given the platform of the CDP they could energize anti-LDP forces to deny LDP-KP landslide victories but is unlikely to be able to garner enough support to deny the LDP-KP a majority.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on November 09, 2018, 11:46:47 am
Here we go again.  It seems ex-JRP founder and leader 橋下 徹(Hashimoto Tōru) who has pretty much disowned JRP after 2017 is getting back in the thick of things trying for yet another opposition realignment.  There are reports that Hashimoto is having all sorts of late night dinners with LP leader Ozawa, and ex-DP leader 前原誠司 (Maebaru Seiji) who is now with DPP.  前原誠司 (Maebaru Seiji)  was the last leader of DP who in 2017 pretty much disbanded DP to merge into HP in a losing effort to defeat LDP in the 2017 elections.

It seems Hashimoto  wants to push for a DPP-JRP-LP alliance to defeat LDP in the next elections.  Not clear how this possible bloc will work with the CDP-SDP-JCP bloc.  On thing is for sure.  If these two blocs form and not coordinate in the 1- member districts the LDP-KP will run away in 2019 in another landslide victory.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on November 26, 2018, 04:00:45 am
Conflict with ROK over the comfort women issue plus Abe working on a possible peace treaty is pushing up support Abe cabinet 

()

 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 07, 2018, 12:00:46 am
茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly election this Sunday.    Back in 2014 LDP won 45 and KP won 4 out of 63 seats.  The main opposition with 5 seats was a local rebel LDP faction led by a rebel LDP MP.  This LDP rebel MP seems to have, after the 2017 general elections, have formed an alliance with the Center-Left opposition.  This time around I suspect LDP will drop to something like 38 seats with DPP making a bunch of gains based de facto alliance with this local LDP rebel faction which I suspect will also make some gains.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 07, 2018, 08:14:49 pm
2014 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly was

              Contest   Won   Vote share
LDP             52           45       56.73%
KP                4             4         4.47%
LDP rebels     5             1        5.49%
PP                5              5        5.80% (LDP splinter faction, main opposition to LDP)
JRP               5             0        4.47%
DPJ            13              5       13.31%
SDP             1              0         0.99%
Minor Left    4              0         2.56%
JCP              4             3         5.81%

I think this time with PP DPP CDP de facto alliance it will be
LDP         40
KP            4
LDP rebel  2
PP            6
DPP          7
CDP          2
JCP           2

where both LDP and JCP gets squeezed by the PP-DPP-CDP alliance


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 09, 2018, 09:42:29 am
Counting done for 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly.  Turnout was very low and as a result it was a big victory for the Greater LDP bloc even though the big winner are actually LDP rebels.  On paper the results are

LDP  34
KP     4
CDP   1
DPP   4
JCP    2
Ind. 17
()

If you group the Independent winners into the right parties or blocs you really get

LDP           40
KP              4
LDP rebels  5
PP              5  (LDP rebel faction now aligned with opposition)
DPP           5
CDP           1
JCP            2

Prelim vote share count are
  
              Contest Win   Vote share
LDP           49       40       51.99%
KP              4         4         7.51%
LDP rebels   8         5       11.64%
JRP             1         0        0.45%
PP              6         5         5.77%
DPP          11         5       12.06%
CDP            2         1        3.16%
JCP             8         2        7.11%

With turnout low JCP and KP vote share rises.  JCP running in more districts clearly hurt the PP-DPP-DCP alliance.   It seems the 2014 JRP vote share mostly went over to LDP rebels.  Low turnout also means DPP and CDP did worse than expected.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 09, 2018, 09:50:41 am
Under rule "If you win you are LDP" most if not all of LDP rebel winners will be allowed to the LDP caucus. 

Last few cycles it seems the main opposition is the LDP splinter faction PP after the DPJ split up. It seems now the main opposition to LDP are just LDP rebels in an very low turnout election.

So the opening round of the mega 2019 local elections goes to LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 09, 2018, 04:41:45 pm
Overall there are 6 LDP backed independents and 5 LDP rebels that were elected. 10 of them will be inducted into LDP right away and be nominated by LDP retroactively as part of the rule "If you win you are LDP."  One LDP rebel seems to be still working out details of joining the LDP caucus.  So for now the breakdown for the 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly will be.

LDP                 44
Pro-LDP Ind.      1
KP                     4
PP                     5
DPP                   5
CDP                   1
JCP                   2

So when compared to 2014 the LDP bloc is down 1 seats, JCP is down 1 seat, PP is flat, and DPP-CDP gains 1 seat relative to DPJ in 2014.  The assembly lost 1 seat overall as a result of re-redistricting.  So despite the surge in LDP-KP vote share relative to 2014 this election is a wash due to the Center-Left Bloc (DPP CDP) nominating less candidates relative to 2014.  JCP nominated more candidates which only seems to have hurt the Center-Left bloc even as it lost a seat to CDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 09, 2018, 05:56:08 pm
The relative voting blocs in 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly seems fairly stable over the last 4 elections.

               LDP-KP-Third Pole             PP               Center-Left-JCP
             (includes LDP rebels)         
2006              73.96%                   4.92%                20.93%
2010              70.13%                   5.15%                24.36%
2014              71.17%                   5.80%                22.67%
2018              71.59%                   5.77%                22.33%

Of the 4 officially nominated LDP candidates that lost all of them were to LDP rebels. 2 of them were in 1-on-1 battles with a LDP rebel that they lost. 2 of them were in 2 member districts where 2 LDP candidates faced off with a LDP rebel which one of the official LDP candidate lost to the LDP rebel.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 10, 2018, 07:19:42 am
Abe got the immigration bill in the special session of the diet.  It cost him a lot of political capital to get it through.  Also in this special section LDP failed submit constitution change proposals.  This most likely means it is unlikely LDP/Abe can get a formal constitutional amendment done by the Upper House elections in the summer of 2019.  This is key since the most likely outcome is that after the 2019 elections the Center-Left + JCP will emerge with around 37%-38% of the Upper House seats which effectively blocks formal constitutional amendment which requires 2/3 majority in both houses.  Of course Abe can always make deals with DPP but that just adds too many blocs he has to buy off (DPP HP KP JRP etc etc).

It could be that this outcome, for Abe, is a feature and not a bug.  It was always assumed that Abe's goal was formal constitutional  change.  It is possible that that was just a cheese he was dangling in front of the Conservative wing of the LDP to get them to back him being LDP leader for so long and when it comes down to it Abe just prioritize power instead of a constitutional amendment.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 10, 2018, 05:13:36 pm
Abe approval/disapproval curve moving in the negative direction again.  I suspect it has to do with the immigration law where the LDP Right is mostly upset he did this.
()

LDP support holding steady.  Aoki index seems to be around above 80 which means LDP victory if an election is held today
()

CDP support rising again.  CDP still be the main opposition party to LDP in 2019.  DPP will have pockets of strength but DPP cannot match CDP on the PR slate.
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: Lok on December 10, 2018, 11:31:21 pm
Nice to see the CDP back on the rise. Hopefully it holds up.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2018, 08:13:05 am
New immigration law clearly has hit Abe cabinet support and LDP support among the core LDP base.  I think this should be temporary since Abe is getting ready for a stimulus package to counteract the impact of the consumption tax going from 8% to 10%.
()

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2018, 09:13:16 am
Ashai poll of party support of top two parties in Dec of the year before Upper House elections

2000 LDP 30 DPJ 11  -> 2001 Upper House Landslide LDP victory
2003 LDP 31 DPJ 24  -> 2004 Upper House LDP-DPJ draw
2006 LDP 36 DPJ 14  -> 2007 Upper House LDP defeat after a horrible 2007 for LDP under Abe
2009 DPJ 42 LDP 18  -> 2010 Upper House LDP-DPJ draw after a very bad 2010 for DPJ
2012 LDP 36 DPJ 9    -> 2013 Upper House Landslide LDP victory
2015 LDP 33 DPJ 8    -> 2016 Upper House LDP victory which was contained by Opposition-JCP alliance
2018 LDP 35 CDP 8   -> 2019 Seems LDP victory whose scale is determined by level of opposition unity


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2018, 09:55:18 pm
In Japanese local elections there are a lot of Independence candidates most of which are pro-LDP.  In Japanese media they are usually referred to as Pan-LDP or sometimes Pan-Conservative.   I tend to call them Ind(LDP) or LDP rebel based on the situation.  It would be useful to go over the situations where a pro-LDP politician will run as an independent and which types I would use which terminology (Ind(LDP) or LDP rebel.)

All things equal I will use the 1-member district situation to go over the different configurations but will use 2- member districts where it has to be used to demonstrate some of these configurations

1- member distirct

a) The LDP candidate has cross partisan appeal and figures he has a better of chance of winning if he runs as an independent to pull in opposition votes.  Often LDP would recommend this candidate. So the ballot would be

Ind(LDP) (recommended by LDP)
Opposition candidate

b) The LDP candidate has been hit with serious scandal so he had to resign from LDP but still want to run to prove that he is innocent.   The LDP will not recommend this candidate but will de facto back him.  So the ballot would be

Ind(LDP)
Opposition candidate

c) Two LDP candidate from two different faction emerge to want to run in a very strong LDP district.  The LDP local chapter could not decided so allows both to run and lets the voters decided.  So the ballot would be

Ind(LDP)
Ind(LDP)

d) Same as c) but with an opposition candidate.  This is a lot more dangerous for the LDP as the split of the LDP vote could let in the opposition.  More often than not the battle between two LDP factions pull in votes from the opposition candidate who ends up in 3rd place a lot of times.  The ballot would be

Ind(LDP)
Ind(LDP)
Opposition candidate

e) LDP has decided to nominate a candidate but another LDP candidate from a rival faction emerge who then runs in a very strong LDP district.  In this situation I would call the pro-LDP independent a LDP rebel. The ballot would be

LDP
LDP rebel

f) Same as e) but with an opposition candidate.  Again this gets more dangerous for LDP but like d) in practical terms this tend to marginalize the opposition candidate.  The ballot would be

LDP
LDP rebel
Opposition candidate.


Now we have some conflagration with 2- member districts.

a) LDP has nominated a candidate but another LDP candidate emerged from a rival faction wants to run to win the second seat.  The LDP is fine with this but does not nominate him since it would be hard for the LDP to win both seats and wants to avoid the embarrassment of losing so LDP acquiesce the second candidate but does not formally nominate him. So the ballot would be

LDP
Ind(LDP)
Opposition candidate
JCP (sometimes)

b) Same as a) but two additional LDP candidates from rival factions emerge since it is a very strong LDP district.   Here the LDP will let the voters decided which of the two extra LDP candidates deserve to win. The ballot would be

LDP
Ind(LDP)
Ind(LDP)
Opposition candidate
JCP (sometimes)

c) LDP actually have 2 candidates but a third LDP candidate emerges to run which I would label as LDP rebel.  The ballot would be

LDP
LDP
LDP rebel
Opposition candidate
JCP (sometimes)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2018, 09:05:26 am
2013 and 2016 Japan Upper House election results and how they map the the current makeup of the Upper House today.

2013 Upper House elections.  YP has disappeared since 2013, JRP has split, DPJ has become DP and then split into CDP and DPP.

OPPN is Center-Left opposition Independents (most likely anti-Constitutional revision) and TP is Third Pole or Center-Right opposition independents (most likely pro-Constitutional revision).  

               2013     YP    JRP split   DPJ split    Other       Current
District
LDP          47       +1                                    +1            49
DPJ          10                               -10          
CDP                                             +4                             4
KP             4                                                                  4
JCP            3                                                                 3
JRP            2                                                                 2
DPP                                            +5                              5
YP             4       -4                            
HP                     +2                                                       2
LP             0                                                +1              1
SDP          0                                                                  0
OPPN        2                                +1            -2               1
TP                    +1                                                        1
Total       73                                                                 73

               2013     YP    JRP split   DPJ split    Other       Current
PR
LDP        18         +2     +1                                            21
DPJ          7                                   -7
CDP                    +1                      +3                            4
KP           7                                                                   7
JCP          5                                                                   5
JRP          6                  -3                                              3
DPP                                             +4                             4
YP           4         -4
HP                              +1                                             1
LP           0                                                                   0
SDP        1                                                                   1
OPPN                          +1                                             1
TP                     +1                                                      1
Total    48                                                                  48

So breakdown by party for the 2013 class is
LDP        70
CDP         8
KP          11
JCP          8
JRP          5
DPP         9
HP           3
LP            1
SDP         1
OPPN       3
TP            2

And if you group them by
LDP-KP          81
Center-Left    22
Third pole      10
JCP                8

Center-Left-JCP has 24.8% of the seats, well below the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.  


Now lets look at 2016 class.  Since 2016 DP has broken up into CDP and DPP

               2016     DP split    Other       Current
District
LDP           37                                        37
DP            22          -22
CDP                       +10                         10
KP              7                                          7
JCP            1                                          1
JRP            3                                          3
DPP                      +10                          10
HP                                                         0
LP              2                                          2
SDP            0                                         0
OPPN          1         +2                            3
TP              0                                         0
Total         73                                        73

               2016     DP split    Other       Current
PR        
LDP          19           +1                         20
DP            11          -11                
CDP                        +6                          6
KP             7                                         7
JCP            5                                         5
JRP            4                        -1              3
DPP                       +4                           4
HP                                                        0
LP             1                                          1
SDP           1                                         1
OPPN                                                    0
TP                                      +1              1
Total        48                                       48

So breakdown by party for the 2016 class is
LDP        57
CDP       16
KP          14
JCP          6
JRP          6
DPP       14
HP           0
LP            3
SDP         1
OPPN       3
TP            1

And if you group them by
LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third pole       7
JCP                6

Center-Left-JCP has 37.2% of the seats, above the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.  


So if you add the 2013 and 2016 classes you get
LDP      127
CDP       24
KP          25
JCP        14
JRP        11
DPP       23
HP           3
LP            4
SDP         2
OPPN       6
TP            3

And if you group them by
LDP-KP        152
Center-Left    59
Third pole     17
JCP              14

Center-Left-JCP has 30.2% of the seats, below the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.   This is what the window Abe now has to get Constitutional revision passed before the July 2019 Upper House elections.


As for the 2019 Upper House elections my projection (assuming that CDP DPP LP SDP and JCP create the right alliances in places that count) is currently
        
           District     PR     Total
LDP        39         18       57
CDP       12          13      25
KP          7            7       14
JCP         2            4        6
JRP         1            2        3
DPP        7            3      10
HP          1            1        2
LP          2            1        3
SDP       0             1        1
OPPN      3                      3
TP          0                      0
Total      74          50     124

And if you group them by
LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    42
Third pole       5
JCP                6

Center-Left-JCP has 38.1% of the seats, above the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.


And if you add this group to the 2016 class you get
LDP      114
CDP       41
KP         28
JCP        12
JRP         9
DPP       24
HP           2
LP           6
SDP         2
OPPN       6
TP           1

And if you group them by
LDP-KP        142
Center-Left    79
Third pole     12
JCP              12

Center-Left-JCP has 37.1% of the seats, above the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.  

Most other projections seem similar with the BIG IF that Center-Left Opposition and JCP forms joint candidates in the marginal 1- member districts. This is why Abe's window of Constitutional reform might be closing.  He has to get something done before July.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on December 31, 2018, 01:58:38 pm
Pro-LDP Sankei Shimbun(産経) just came out with an early survey of the 2019 Upper House elections.  These early surveys always underestimate LDP historically so they should be seen as an floor for LDP performance.  

It was hard to link the top line seat projections with the prefecture based projections so I had to assume the overall projection was a probabilistic projection and not the sum of medium guesses.  

Overall it came out with

LDP    55
CDP    21  
KP      13
JCP     10
DPP      9
JRP      4
OPPN  10 (opposition joint candidates)
Other   2

Reading over its vague descriptions on a prefecture by prefecture basis I was able to surmise a reasonable detailed version of the projection although it is not rigorous.

Party       District      PR        Total              Implied PR vote share
LDP            37          18          55                         33.9%
CDP             8          13          21                         24.5%
KP               7            6          13                         11.3%
JCP              5            5          10                          9.4%
DPP             5            4            9                          7.5%
JRP              1           3            4                           5.7%
SDP             0           1             1                          1.9%
LP               1            0            1                           1.6%
HP              0            0            0                           1.6%
OPPN        10                         10
Total          74          50         124  

Fairly good result for JCP (especially in district seats) and DCP and poor result for KP and somewhat poor result for LDP.   Again, most polls this early tend to underestimate LDP and Third Pole turnout so these numbers should be seen as a floor for LDP-KP which is not too bad.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 08, 2019, 02:20:47 pm
Japan's largest election website go2senkyo.com did a poll for the April Local elections

Party support
LDP       34.6
KP          5.0
JRP         1.4
HP          1.0
DPP        1.2
CDP      18.5
LP          0.5
SDP       1.5
JCP        7.4
()

Likely vote in April local elections
LDP       33.7
KP          5.7
JRP         3.2
HP          0.5
DPP        1.5
CDP      20.8
LP          0.8
SDP       2.5
JCP        9.9
()

There numbers looks fairly good for CDP.  Overall where KP runs candidates KP will perform way better than this (13%-15%) as KP takes local elections more seriously than national elections and mostly back LDP candidates where KP is not running.  Most independents will end up voting LDP as the LDP candidates are the ones with real local connections and organizational strength.  Still for 20.8% to plan to vote CDP is a fairly strong signal that CDP is pretty much THE main opposition party to LDP nationally.  


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 08, 2019, 10:46:09 pm
Something I missed from last Nov.  It seems that what is left of Far Right Hawk PJK merged back into LDP when its last MP (who quit LDP in 2012 to join JRP before joining JRP splinter FPG which then became PJK) dissolved the party and joined the LDP.  Of course part of the reason was that this last PJK MP 中野 正志(Nakano Masashi) who was elected in the 2013 Upper House elections on the JRP PR slate is up for re-election in 2019 and had no prospect of being re-elected in PJK.  By joining LDP there is a chance he might be allowed to run on the LDP PR slate.  

What remained of the PJK MPs all joined HP back in 2017 when PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) and her husband joined HP.  She is in HP right now and is also up for re-election in 2019 Upper House election will most likely try to run for re-election on the HP PR slate with a hope that HP could get more than 1.8% of the PR vote for her to be re-elected.

So now HP is really the last super-hawk Far Right Third Pole party.  JRP is still count as Third Pole is is now mostly reduced to a Osaka based regional party.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: c r a b c a k e on January 09, 2019, 08:22:33 am
Sorry if you've mentioned this, but how strong is the CDP at the local levels at the moment? Did most municipal and prefecture DP politicians stick with DP at the time of the schism or has the CDP attracted much of the old left wing of the DP?

What are the major left wing cities in Japan? I know Nagoya is pretty left wing?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 09, 2019, 11:58:18 am
Sorry if you've mentioned this, but how strong is the CDP at the local levels at the moment? Did most municipal and prefecture DP politicians stick with DP at the time of the schism or has the CDP attracted much of the old left wing of the DP?

What are the major left wing cities in Japan? I know Nagoya is pretty left wing?

I would say most of the old DPJ infrastructure at the local level split along lines that align with the relative strength of CDP vs DPP.  So in places like 北海道(Hokkaido), 東京(Tokyo), and 埼玉(Saitama) most of the old DPJ grassroots went over to CDP.  But in the rural Northeast and South they mostly went with DPP.   An CDP will have strength in urban areas and DPP will be stronger in rural areas.
 This is why DPP will most likely over-perform polls in terms of results and CDP will under-perform since in many rural districts DPP will be the only non-JCP opposition in town and CDP voters will just have to vote DPP.

As for what cities lean Left, I would say

1) Most cities in 北海道(Hokkaido)
2) 盛岡市(Morioka), capital of  岩手(Iwate)
3) 仙台市((Sendai), capital of 宮城(Miyagi)
4) 福島市(Fukushima city), capital of 福島(Fukushima)
5) Most cities in 埼玉(Saitama)
6) 船橋市(Funabashi) and 市川市(Ichikawa) in 千葉(Chiba)
7) 横浜市(Yokohama), capital of  神奈川(Kanagawa)
8 ) The urban parts of 東京(Tokyo)
9) 新潟市(Niigata city) capital of 新潟(Niigata)
10) 長野市(Nagano City) capital of 長野(Nagano) where JCP is fairly strong
11) 名古屋市(Nagoya) capital of 愛知(Aichi)
12) 四日市市(Yokkaichi) in 三重(Mie)
13) Urban parts of 京都(Kyoto) where JCP is fairly strong
14) Urban parts of 大阪(Osaka) used to be very Left have have more turned to a regional populist Right JRP
15) 神戸市(Kobe) capital of 兵庫(Hyōgo) used to be very left but a good chunk of that support has turned to the regional populist Right JRP
16) 高知市(Kōchi city) capital of 高知(Kōchi) where JCP is fairly strong
17) 大分市(Ōita city) capital of 大分(Ōita) where SDP is fairly strong
18) Urban parts of 沖縄(Okinawa) which is more about the USA base issue

Note that in some of these areas like 大阪(Osaka), 名古屋市(Nagoya), 神戸市(Kobe), 東京(Tokyo) the populist Right also has done well in the past so some of these Leftist impulses might be more about opposition to the existing Establishment of Clientelism politics of the LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 09, 2019, 02:31:08 pm
To get a sense on how the CDP and DPP split is working out at the local level with respect to the old DPJ local base I looked at one prefecture, 滋賀(Shiga), where CDP and HP PR vote share were at par in 2017 and has a history of strong local opposition.   I looked at the candidates for the 2019 prefecture elections, looked at those numbers by breaking down the election districts by rural and urban areas and projected what I expect to be the election result.  

Historically 滋賀(Shiga) has a local branch of DPJ called チームしが or Team Shiga(TS).  This is a local party that was formed by a its anti-LDP ex-governor.   DPJ and TS historically worked hand in hand to take on LDP with DPJ candidates sometimes running as TS candidates.  There is a separate small opposition bloc called 良知会 or Rjo-kai Club (RKC) that works outside of TS.

In 2015 the election result were

Urban districts        
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           20             15
KP              2               2
DPJ-TS      11               8
RKC            2               2
JCP             6               3


Rural districts
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           10              6
DPJ-TS        7               7
RKC            1               1


Total
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           30             21
KP              2               2
DPJ-TS      18             15
RKC            3               3
JCP             6               3

With the LDP doing worse in rural areas due to a large number of 2 member districts where it is split 1-1 between and LDP-Opposition whereas in urban areas the larger LDP-KP base has a impact in larger sized districts where seat distribution is more PR like.


For 2019 TS will work hand in hand with DPP while CDP will run separately with some of the old DPJ candidates going over to CDP.  The split has as clear urban-rural bias.


My 2019 projected result

Urban districts        
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           19             15
KP              2               2
DPP-TS        6              6
CDP            5               5
RKC            1               0
JCP             7               2


Rural districts
           Candidates   Winners
LDP             9              7
DPP-TS        6               6
CDP            1               1
RKC            1               0


Total
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           28             22
KP              2               2
DPP-TS      12             12
CDP            6               6
RKC            2               0
JCP             7               2

One of the incumbent RKC MLAs left the prefecture assembly since 2015 to run for mayor of one the cities in the prefecture.   Better nomination strategy by LDP is able to gain it an extra seat relative to 2015.   The DPJ split work where in urban area it is split down the middle between CDP and DPP while in rural areas it is mostly go to DPP.  In urban areas CDP squeezed out RKC and JCP while in rural areas better LDP nomination strategy I expect to kill off the last RKC MLA.

So looking at this one prefecture  滋賀(Shiga) seems to match my main narrative

1) All things equal DPP will get a greater set of the DPJ organization than its party support would otherwise indicate.
2) DPP will be stronger and rural areas and will inherit a majority of the old DPJ base there
3) CDP will be stronger in urban areas and tend to get a restively greater share of the old DPJ base.
4) Overall the relative balance of power between LDP-KP and opposition will be mostly undisturbed but it really depends on where the CDP surge will be at the expense of (other opposition support of LDP-KP.)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 16, 2019, 04:55:50 pm
There are rumors that Abe is looking to dissolve the Lower House later in the Spring in order to have a double election (both Lower and Upper House election at the same time) in July.  The calculation would be that the opposition seems to be getting ready for an Upper House election but are totally unprepared in the Lower House seats (opposition-JCP common candidates talks.)  A election at the same time woulds stretch Opposition-JCP resources, energy and coordination so the LDP-KP could sweep in to another 2/3 majority in the Lower house and do well enough in the Upper House to retain an 2/3 Constitutional Revisionist majority.

Similar rumors were circulating in the run up to the 2016 Upper House elections.  In that case Abe choose to go with a delay of consumption tax increase as his October surprise.   This time Abe seems to be looking for another X-factor to help him get a landslide victory.  It could be the 2014 Lower House election trick (surprise snap election while the Opposition is not prepared.)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 20, 2019, 08:28:53 am
There was a shock prefecture poll  in 高知(Kōchi) which showed Abe Cabinet approval down to 26%
()


But  political blogger showed a 2017 election campaign Abe Cabinet approval poll which had results per prefecture showing that in 高知(Kōchi) approval rating was in the low 30s but with Abe going on to have a pretty decisive win in the election so this most recent poll does not mean that much
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 21, 2019, 06:02:06 pm
As the hit Abe cabinet approval rating took due to new Immigration Law wears off Abe Cabinet approval curve recovers
()

But still has it below the levels it has seen in the 2013 and 2016 Upper House elections and somewhat below the levels before the 2014 and 2017 Lower House elections
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 21, 2019, 07:12:25 pm
Latest Ashai poll asks for vote for PR in Upper House elections which has

Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval   43(+3)/38(-3)

PR vote for 2019 Upper House elections

LDP     41
KP        5
HP        1
JRP       4
DPP      2
LP        2
CDP    15
SP       1
JCP      5

When asked if the ruling bloc should maintain a 2/3 majority favor/oppose is 39/39

When asked if CDP DPP and other opposition parties (which I assume does not include JCP) should unite to fight LDP-KP as an alliance favor/oppose is 50/36

Ashai points out that in Jan 2016 it polled LDP PR vote at 39 and DPJ at 14 while in the 2016 Upper House elections it ended up being LDP 39 and DP 21 (DPJ and JIP merging later in 2016 before the elections) 
()

I think the main difference between now and 2016 is the polled share of "none" is lower this time around.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 22, 2019, 08:32:28 am
Latest developments on opposition realignment

1) A large bloc of ex-DP and ex-HP MPs in the lower house have joined CDP.  The faction known as League of Independents have gone from 16 to 7 as 9 MPs will now caucus with CDP.  The remaining 7 will be led by ex-PM 野田 佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko) who was from the Center-Right wing of DPJ.  The main reason what remains did not join CDP has to do with ideological differences plus bad memories of the Noda role as PM in pushing through consumption tax  increase working with LDP in 2012 which led to the 2012 landslide defeat of DPJ.  Noda's bloc most likely will be de facto aligned with DPP.  There are another 13 Lower House MPs most of whom have DPJ and then HP background who are mostly non-aligned but should be seen as being pro-DPP but some of which might more be seen as pro-Third Pole.   

2) It seems that LP will merge into DPP.  Most likely Ozawa views as unlikely that LP will cross the 2% threshold in the upcoming Upper House elections to get LP PR seats.  Ozawa, it seems, will be given the role of General Secretary in DPP as a result of the merger which is a better role for him anyway.  Ozawa was always better as a backroom operator then the face of a party to fetch votes.   His job should be on candidate selection and fundraising.   LP Upper House MP in Tokyo and radical anti-nuclear activist 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will most likely not join DPP but end up as an independent again or aligning with SDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: Lok on January 22, 2019, 08:35:02 pm
It's looking like the opposition is starting to unite.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 23, 2019, 08:11:07 am
One of the key reasons, it seems, that DPP is working toward merging with LP has to do with the relative size of DPP vs CDP in the Upper House.  Right now CDP has 25 MP in the Upper House while DPP has 23.  LP has 4 members.  Even if one of the LP Upper House MPs which is from Tokyo might become and independent due to disagreements with DPP over nuclear policy, an addition of 3 MPs would push DPP above CDP in the Upper House.  This is key in terms of designation of Main Opposition Party in the Upper House (sort of like Leader of Opposition in the Westminster system.)   

Of course it is clear that given the strength of CDP in the PR slate in the 2019 Upper House elections, CDP is for sure going to be bigger than DPP no matter what after the 2019 elections.  The main reasons DPP is doing this other than to get them hands on the funds that Ozawa commands, is to increase their leverage with CDP in terms of seat sharing talks for the Upper House elections.

With Ozawa most likely in the DPP camp the appeal of the DPP and CDP are now clear.

DPP - A centrist version of LDP.  if you like the down to earth get things done style of LDP politics but want a more Centrist slate of policies: Vote DPP
CDP - Yes, a more center-Left party but the key difference would be: If you reject LDP's style of politics and want politics to be about principles and ideals then vote CDP
JCP - Social Democratic alternative.  If you utterly reject LDP both in terms of style of politics and also want a Left slate of politics: Vote JCP

CDP is a real threat to JCP as part of the JCP base is about political ideals than real Leftism.  Of course it seems the CDP-JCP battle to mobilize votes for itself seems to give a chance to drive up turnout this segment of the electorate to the harm of LDP KP and DPP in the upcoming election.

It seems that CDP and JCP have no issues working together.  Same with CDP and DPP. It is DPP-JCP talks for alliance in single member seats that will be tough.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 23, 2019, 12:42:19 pm
There will be two Lower House by-elections in April which will test opposition unity. 

The LDP incumbent in 大阪(Osaka) 12th District passed away.  The 2009 2012 2014 and 2017 results for this district are

2009 (DPJ landslide year)
DPJ  53.2%
LDP  36.1% (incumbent)
JCP   8.5%
HRP   2.2%

2012 (LDP comeback based on DPJ split and rise of JRP)
LDP   39.9% (2009 incumbent came back to win his old seat)
YP     25.8% (backed by JRP)
DPJ   25.5% (2009 DPJ winner defeated)
JCP    8.8%

2014 (LDP landslide again)
LDP   40.0%
DPJ   25.2% (2009 DPJ winner runs again)
JIP    24.2%
JCP   10.6%

2017 (LDP wins again) (DPJ candidate from 2009 2012 2014 joins HP who agreed to back JRP so he ran on the HP PR slate but the LDP incumbent won anyway)
LDP   45.0%
JRP    40.6%
JCP    14.4%

2017 PR vote
LDP   27.0%   
KP     19.4%            
JRP   28.05%   
HP     5.05%   
CDP  10.34%   
SDP    0.53%   
JCP    9.29%
HRP   0.32%

2017 district PR vote analysis showed that CDP PR voters split their vote between JCP and JRP while some of the JRP HP PR vote went LDP.

This time around the old DPJ candidate of 2009 2012 and 2014 who became an independent after HP mostly dissolved wants to run as the common opposition candidate.  Due to his history of being in HP the JCP is not willing to back him and pushing for a separate CDP-JCP common candidate.  Given the size of the LDP-KP and JRP base here the only chance for the non-JRP Opposition is CDP DPP JCP all united around a non-JCP candidate to try become a lighting rod of anti-LDP and anti-JRP votes.     At this time it does not seem likely and LDP should win this one.


The other by-election is 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd district where the LP incumbent successful ran for governor late last year.   The 2009 2012 2014 and 2017 results for this district are

2009 (DPJ landslide year)
DPJ         48.7%
LDP         23.7%
SDP         13.6%
LDP rebel 13.1%
HRP          0.9%

2012 (LDP national landslide due to DPJ split and rise of JRP)
LDP      43.6%
PLP      36.1% (won on PR slate, was DPJ incumbant but switched to PLP in 2012)
JRP        7.9%
JCP        6.5%
DPJ        4.7%
HRP       1.2%

2014 (LDP wins again, Okinawa had opposition-JCP alliance)
PLP       60.0% (came back to win)
LDP      40.0% (won on PR slate)

2017 (LDP wins again, Okinawa had opposition-JCP alliance)
Ind(LP)  57.9% (who then ran for governor in 2018 and won)
LDP       40.3%
HRP       1.8%

2017 PR
LDP    23.5%   
KP      18.9%         
HRP     1.3%   
JRP      4.4%   
HP     13.5%   
CDP   15.5%   
SDP   13.2%   
JCP     9.7%

2017 district-PR vote share analysis showed that LDP only retained the most of the LDP-KP PR vote and that the JRP and HP PR vote mostly went to the opposition due to the base issue while a small part of the KP PR vote mostly likely also defected over the base issue.

This time around the popular LP incumbent will not be on the ballot and if the 2017 JRP and 2017 HP PR vote defect to LDP then the opposition could lose the election.  I guess the key here is the opposition has to come up with a common candidate and that the candidate must ensure the salience of the base issue as a way to get a fairly large and diverse coalition holds together to beat LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 23, 2019, 01:05:58 pm
Asahi monthly poll show the age gap for Abe Cabinet approval

Overall it is 43/38 for Jan 2019
()

Age 20-29 it is 48/27 for Jan 2019
()

Age 60-69 it is 33/51 for Jan 2019
()
 
This pattern has been around for several years now.  The youth back LDP-KP while ages 50-69 tends to lean opposition with middle age and 70+ voters tend to be in the middle


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 25, 2019, 10:45:27 am
山梨(Yamanashi) governor election this sunday will be neck-to-neck.

It will be the CDP-DPP backed incumbent vs LDP backed candidate vs ex-YP (but was DPJ background) vs JCP

Back in 2015 the LDP backed the current incumbent(who has a DPJ background) because the strongest LDP candidate was a long time LDP rebel and the local LDP branch rather back a pro-DPJ candidate rather than reconcile with this LDP rebel.

This time the LDP rebel in question 長崎 幸太郎(Nagasaki Kōtarō) who beat the official candidate as an MP for couple of cycles finally reconciled with the LDP in 2017 but lost his seat in the 2017 election.  So this time the LDP will back him as the candidate to try to take down the pro-Opposition governor. 

It seems this race will be neck-to-neck between LDP and CDP-DPP and from which voting base the ex-YP candidate will cut into (LDP voters or center-left opposition voters)  will determine the winner.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 08:11:31 am
山梨(Yamanashi) governor election seems to have went LDP's way over the CDP-DPP incumbent

Exit poll seems to have the LDP candidate winning around 50% of the vote in a 4 way race
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Main reasons of victory (according to NHK breakdown)
Is that LDP supporters formed 46% of the voters while KP formed 3% of the voters most of which went to the LDP candidate.  CDP formed 11% of the voters, DPP 3% and JCP 3%.  The a good part of the critical independent bloc(30%) also voted for the LDP candidate.
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 08:15:37 am
With 46% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP           49.3%
CDP-DPP    41.6% (incumbant)
ex-YP          4.8% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             4.4%

Usually for governor races the incumbent have a large advantage.  For LDP to take out this pro-opposition incumbent is a great coup and another feather in the cap of Abe.  This is pretty negative news for the opposition for the upcoming Upper House elections as  山梨(Yamanashi)  is an example a rural 1- member swing district the opposition has to win in order to stop a LDP landslide.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 08:30:35 am
With 78% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       50.3%
CDP-DPP    42.5% (incumbant)
ex-YP          3.8% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             3.4%

It seems the main battle now is will LDP still be above 50% ?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 08:45:24 am
With 89% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       50.2%
CDP-DPP    42.7% (incumbant)
JCP             3.6%
ex-YP          3.6 (have DPJ background as well)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 09:54:46 am
All votes counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       49.7%
CDP-DPP    41.8% (incumbent)
ex-YP          4.3% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             4.1%

It seems the key aspect of this race was that the LDP-KP candidate was able to consolidate all the pro-LDP forces.  The key factor here is the ex-YP candidate was reduced to 4.3%.  It seems that this 4.3% is almost all anti-LDP voters and all the pro-LDP voters went over to the LDP-KP winner.  This same ex-YP candidate ran in the Upper House election for 山梨(Yamanashi) in both 2013 and 2016 with the results being

2013
LDP          36.1%
pro-DPJ    19.2%
pro-DPJ    15.7%
YP            14.9% (old DPJ incumbent but went over to YP)
JCP            9.1%


While in 2016 the DP and JCP formed an alliance with the JCP backed the DP candidate but the old DPJ incumbent from the 2013 election cycle that went over to YP ran again

2016
DP              43.0%
LDP           37.8%
ex-YP        16.7%
HRP            2.5%

It seems clear that this ex-YP candidate pulled in in 2013 and 2016 15.7% and 16.7% of the vote a good part of seems to be pro-LDP voters.  This time around that entire bloc of voters did not vote for this ex-YP candidate and went back to the LDP leading to the LDP unexpectedly large victory.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 09:56:43 am
Back to topic of opposition unity.  With DPP and LP in talks with a merger and it seems in response CDP and SDP are in talks to from a common caucus and possible merger.
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: The scissors of false economy on January 27, 2019, 04:28:58 pm
Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I'm starting to wonder if there's some sort of unreported or inadequately-reported democratic backsliding on the level of voting rolls or freedom of the press or something going on in Japan. The repeated, clockwork-like LDP landslides at practically every level no matter what the Abe government is doing or has done lately are starting to get downright unsettling.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 09:19:18 pm
Nikkei poll on PR section of 2019 Upper House elections

LDP  41%
CDP  12%
CDP   1%
KP     5%
JCP    4%
JRP    2%
LP     1%
SDP  1%
HP    0%
()

Note that a similar poll in May 2016 had LDP at 44% and DP at 12% and the PR vote ended up LDP 36% and DP 21%.  The way I would read this poll is to add LDP+KP support and add a couple of percentages to be the LDP-KP PR support rate.  Lots of KP PR voters claim to pollsters that they are LDP supporters. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 28, 2019, 07:48:02 am
Fuji Evening Times magazine came out with their projection for 2019 Upper House elections.  It is pretty negative for LDP but usually at this time of the year these projections are pretty bad for LDP anyway.  Most of it is about the media company needing to generate sales of their magazine so a "shocking" projection are more likely to generate sales.  So these projections should be seen as some sort of floor of LDP performance.

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         District    PR    Total    Implied PR vote
LDP      32        17      49              32.0%
KP         7          7       14             13.5%
CDP      15        15      30             28.5%
DPP       5          3        8               6.0%
JCP        2          5       7                9.5%
HP         1          0        1               1.5%
SDP       0          0        0               1.5%
LP          1          0        1               1.5%
OPPN      9                   9           (Opposition joint candidates)

Which gets LDP-KP to 63 seats a bare majority out of 124 seats up for grabs.   Of course one has to read this as the worst worst possible result for LDP.

The various media outlets will come out with these negative projection for LDP to generate sales and then a couple weeks before the election come out with "real" projections that is much more favorable to LDP and much more likely to be accurate.

Same magazine also did a project for Lower House and came up with LDP losing around 55 seats and CDP gaining 70 seats.
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 29, 2019, 11:23:55 am
The Japanese Upper House MP have 6 year terms and there are elections every 3 years so there are two separate classes of Upper House MPs (like the USA Senate have 3 classes.)  The current class up for re-election 2019 class have history of volatile "wave" like results. While the class that was elected in 2016 have a history of more muted results.

History of Class up for re-election in 2016
1992 - Standard LDP victory
1998 - Significant LDP setback
2004 - LDP-DPJ draw
2010 - Minor DPJ setback - Minor LDP victory
2016 - Minor LDP victory - DP revives

History of Class up for re-election in 2019
1989 - Major and unprecedented LDP defeat at the hands of SPJ-Rengo
1995 - Significant LDP setback at the hands of NPF
2001 - Major LDP and one can argue unprecedented LDP landslide victory
2007 - Major LDP setback at the hands of DPJ and allies
2013 - Significant LDP victory - DPJ nearly destroyed 
2019 - ???

So other than the 1998 significant defeat of the LDP, all elections relating to the Class who are up for re-election in 2019 are wave elections and all wave elections are in the class who are up for re-election in 2019.

What is interesting is the 2019 election seems a lot like 2016 which is "wave-less."  Of course that could change between now and July.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: urutzizu on January 29, 2019, 01:39:10 pm
Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I'm starting to wonder if there's some sort of unreported or inadequately-reported democratic backsliding on the level of voting rolls or freedom of the press or something going on in Japan. The repeated, clockwork-like LDP landslides at practically every level no matter what the Abe government is doing or has done lately are starting to get downright unsettling.
I think this has to do with Japanese Culture and Asian Values that value stability and continuity and shuns anything new/populist as well as a traditional bent towards conservatism/nationalism. Maybe our Chinese friend can give us more insight into that. Important to Remember that Japan never elected a Opposition Government until 1993.
Also Japanese still vividly remember the DPJ Government from 2009-2012 which, justifiably or not, is blamed for incompetence and economic mismanagement. So i think the reason why Japan is stubbornly refusing change, is not due to democratic backsliding but rather the lack of a convincing alternative.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: The scissors of false economy on January 29, 2019, 02:07:45 pm
I'm not at all concerned by the repeated LDP victories. I'm beginning to be concerned by the repeated LDP landslides.

I'm sure voter apathy (which in Japan does have to do with the lack of a convincing alternative) is a big part of it, too, since I know the last several Japanese elections have all had very low turnout.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 29, 2019, 04:17:52 pm
As to why LDP always seems to win I will go back to what I wrote back in 2015

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200118.msg4832320#msg4832320

Quote
I wrote about this before but it is interesting to talk about the reason/nature of LDP domination of politics in Japan.  It is based on 3 facts which reinforce each other

1) LDP all things equal is the ruling party at the national level
2) LDP dominates local politics at the prefecture level
3) KP is locked into alliance with LDP at the national and local level in thick and thin

These facts are reinforced by the following set of facts

1) LDP has the ability to contain and manage conflicts of various factions all within the LDP ecosystem with a ruthless attention to make sure intra-factional conflict are managed in such a way that everyone that has real grassroots support and can win are still in LDP.  In   In other words the rule: "If you win you are LDP"
2) Prefecture governments cannot run budget deficits so prefecture governments must have relationships with the national governments for funding and subsidies to be able to provide pork to the voting population and various local vested interest.  So an up-an-coming local politician needs to have connections to the national government though some organizational means.
3) National elections are won in small district level where the personal vote are critical to winning. The personal vote is grown by politicians at the prefecture level which is really a farm league for national politics.
4) KP desires above all legitimacy in mainstream society and media.  This is critical especially after the 1995 Tokyo subway sarin attack by the  Aum Shinrikyo cult.  It was after 1995 when the KP which was formed as an anti-LDP force became pro-LDP so it can me seen as mainstream.

So the net affect of all this is:

A rising local politician with local grassroots support all things equal join a LDP faction at the prefecture level and becomes part of the LDP prefecture government.  The range of positions of these LDP factions are such so that it gives the local politician the ability to join the faction that more fits with his ideological and local profile.  He then rises up in the national level adding his personal vote to the LDP+KP vote base to win national elections and add to the LDP majority which in turn is a source of funding for the next generation of rising local politician.   

A key part of all this the state of local prefecture politics in Japan which I spend some time looking at. I will report my findings as I pointed out, LDP success in local politics along with KP support locally as well is a key if not THE key linchpin of LDP domination of Japanese politics.

Since LDP success is built on strong local grassroots support there is no single point of failure of
being depending on one charismatic leader although having one also helps. 

As for why LDP seem to win in landslides that has to do with the FPTP system in Lower House election districts and enough 1- member districts in Upper House elections.  The anti-LDP oppistion are usually unable to unite around a common anti-LDP candidate.   What is especially positive for LDP is in Upper House multi-member districts is where LDP tend to be weaker but the multi-member district nature means the seat allocation is PR-like to ensure LDP and KP get their fair share.  It is 1- member rural districts where LDP tends to be strong and usually sweep.  In the Lower House LDP just sweep all rural districts since the LDP vote there are often above 50%.  In urban districts where the LDP is weaker various populist Right opposition parties are strong and they will have no truck with JCP or even CDP so the anti-LDP vote will be divided there.   


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: The scissors of false economy on January 29, 2019, 04:39:46 pm
When I was learning about contemporary Japanese social and political issues in the final year of my undergrad program in Japanese language and literature, we were presented with this "three Ks" understanding of what it takes to win elections in Japan. I think the "three Ks" were 金 (kane "money"), 鞄 (kaban "bag", referring to briefcases full of endorsements, contacts among preexisting politicians, ready-made policy manifestos and stump speeches, etc.), and 看板 (kanban "sign", referring to billboards, placards, posters, etc. that serve the function in Japan that TV, radio, and web advertising serve in America). LDP mastery of the "three Ks" was presented to us as a necessary and sufficient explanation for the tenacity of the party's grip on the Japanese political scene, but I guess at the time (2013-2014) it just wasn't quite clear yet exactly how locked-in Abe's hold on power was going to end up being over the course of this decade. I think part of this could have been that the DPJ's relatively strong showing in rural areas in 2009 had obscured how badly the opposition kept getting screwed by the placement of the single-member seats in years that weren't 2009.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 29, 2019, 07:52:08 pm
The nature of the 2014 and 2017 LDP Lower House landslides were a surprise.  It is not reasonable to go back to 2009 since that was a fluke.  On the other hand one would expect 2012 to be a fluke as well with the anti-LDP vote split down the middle between DPJ on the one hand and the JRP-YP on the other hand.  As JRP-YP declined you would have expected a more competitive landscape.  

I looked into this about a year ago after the 2017 Lower House elections when LDP won a large number of district seats.    I used 2003 as a calibration point.    2003 was a "normal" wave-less LDP-DPJ election. In that election DPJ-SDP won 106 out of 300 single member district seats.  While it was not a very large number it was enough to stop LDP-KP far away from 2/3 majority even as LDP-KP won 49.73% of the PR vote.  In 2017, between CDP HP JCP SDP LP and various pro-opposition independents only 59 single member districts were won out of 289 while JRP won 3 seats.    This gave LDP-KP a bare 2/3 majority despite the fact that LDP-KP PR vote share was 45.80%.

I looked at the seats DPJ-SDP won in 2003 and looked into which ones were won by LDP-KP BOTH in 2014 AND 2017 and found 59 such seats.  I looked into why and came up with these following reasons:

1) 2 - were won by DPJ in 2003 as flukes since it involved the LDP vote being split
2) 8 - are still competitive despite LDP winning both in 2014 and 2017 is quite winnable in the next election  
3) 2 - looks like the district swung pretty far to LDP without an obvious reason
4) 7 - Rise of JRP as a regional party split the anti-LDP vote and throw the races to LDP
5) 2 - Rise of JRP as regional party acted as a gateway drug for ex-DPJ voters to vote LDP even though JRP is not competitive
6) 13 - Northern Urban districts where the rise of Third pole parties (JRP and YP) acted as a gateway drug for ex-DPJ but now pro-Third Pole voters to vote LDP even as Third pole parties are not competitive
7) 2 - Southern Rural districts where the rise of Third pole parties (JRP and YP) acted as a gateway drug for ex-DPJ but now pro-Third Pole voters to vote LDP even as Third pole parties are not competitive
8  ) 23 - DPJ winners had some sort of LDP or pro-LDP background and are able to eat into the LDP vote base since many of them were from the great LDP civil war of 1993 but as they left the scene the district reverted

So the relative DPJ success in the 2000s itself was on large fluke based on LDP rebels that ate into the LDP vote and failure to grow a farm league of local prefecture level politicians PLUS the rise of Third Pole parties which split and even shifted anti-LDP votes produced the current world of LDP landslides.  


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: Tintrlvr on January 29, 2019, 08:21:03 pm
Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I'm starting to wonder if there's some sort of unreported or inadequately-reported democratic backsliding on the level of voting rolls or freedom of the press or something going on in Japan. The repeated, clockwork-like LDP landslides at practically every level no matter what the Abe government is doing or has done lately are starting to get downright unsettling.
I think this has to do with Japanese Culture and Asian Values that value stability and continuity and shuns anything new/populist as well as a traditional bent towards conservatism/nationalism. Maybe our Chinese friend can give us more insight into that. Important to Remember that Japan never elected a Opposition Government until 1993.
Also Japanese still vividly remember the DPJ Government from 2009-2012 which, justifiably or not, is blamed for incompetence and economic mismanagement. So i think the reason why Japan is stubbornly refusing change, is not due to democratic backsliding but rather the lack of a convincing alternative.

It's way overstating this to call it "Asian values", btw. South Korea and Taiwan show clearly that other East Asian cultures, when in a democracy, have no compunction about throwing out the governing party. This would also be true if mainland China were a democracy. It's Japan specifically that has a very tradition-bound, hierarchical society that makes changes of power through democracy difficult and a permanent displacement of the "party of government" especially difficult. (The DPJ had the really bad luck of peaking right as the recession was taking hold, though.)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2019, 05:26:46 pm
The key for the opposition from being blown out in the 2019 Upper House elections by the LDP-KP is to form alliances in the 32 single member districts to take on LDP 1-on-1 much like it did in 2016 successfully.  This is critical this year since out of 32 such districts 29 of them have LDP incumbents which will be hard to knock off even in a favorable environment for the opposition.   

This process is harder this year than in 2016 since now we have two medium sized non-JCP opposition parties (CDP and DPP) that first have to come up with a common candidate and then work with JCP to get JCP to stand down.  In 2016 there was just one large opposition DP party and a bunch of micro parties like PLP (now LP) and SDP.  DPP having a separate identity and aligned with anti-JCP Rengo union makes DPP JCP talks harder.

Of course if you look at this chart of all known candidates it seems that some progress has been made even a lot more needs to be done.  The Right hand side are Center-Left opposition parities with light blue being CDP, Deep Blue being DDP and Red JCP.  Middle block are LDP-KP candidate, and the right side of the chart are Third Pole candidates (HP JRP etc etc).  The candidates are color coded according to likelihood of winning.
()

This chart list out the single member districts on what the non-JCP opposition have agreed to as common candidates with their party ID (CDP is light blue, DPP is deep blue, and independent is Grey).  What is not show is if the JCP has agreed to stand down yet.
()

It would be somewhat useful to go prefecture by prefecture.  First we have the 32 single member districts.

1) In 青森(Aomori) CDP-DPP has agreed to back a CDP candidate and work is ongoing with to get JCP candidate to stand down.  LDP will have the edge here but opposition has a chance.

2) In 岩手(Iwate) where it is Ozawa territory, JCP has preemptively stood down.  Working out the opposition candidate requires input from LP which has its hands full with DPP-LP merger so I guess the nature of the common opposition candidate will come later.  As long as all opposition parties work together LDP should be at a disadvantage here. 

3) In other Northern and fairly competitive prefecture like 宮城(Miyagi), 秋田(Akita), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima) DPP is stronger but CDP support is rising.  Since these seats are winnable CDP-DPP are still working on the common candidate before working with JCP to get them to stand down.  The LDP is beatable in all of them to different degrees but it will depend on the candidate and how to overcome historical poor relationships between JCP and opposition parities in this region.

4) In both 栃木(Tochigi) and 群馬(Gunma) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a CDP candidate and work is ongoing to get JCP to stand down.  Not sure it matters that much as either way LDP will win.

5) In 山梨(Yamanashi) which is competitive but the LDP just won a governor race by an unexpectedly large margin no common candidate have been agreed upon let alone talks with JCP to get JCP to stand down.

6) In 新潟(Niigata) which will be competitive no common opposition candidate have been agreed to but most likely willl be a CDP candidate.  JCP has already preemptively stood down as there is a very positive relationship between the JCP here and the other opposition parties.  If all opposition parties can unite behind a candidate the LDP might be at a disadvantage here.   

7) In 富山(Toyama) no common opposition candidate has emerged and the race is so hopeless very likely the opposition will hand the seat to JCP to run.

8 ) In 石川(Ishikawa) CDP-DPP has agreed to back a DPP candidate. Work ongoing to get JCP to step down.  Will not matter since LDP will win no matter what.

9) In 福井(Fukui) CDP-DPP has agreed in principle to back a "woman independent with a legal background" but no name has emerged let alone with talks with JCP to get them to stand down.  Will not matter as LDP will win no matter what.

10) In 長野(Nagano) it is simple since there is a DPP incumbent (in 2013 長野(Nagano) was a 2- member district) so he will be the common opposition candidate.  Problem here JCP is quite strong here and have a poor relationship with DPP so getting JCP to stand down would be hard but I guess doable.

11) In 岐阜(Gifu) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a CDP candidate and work is ongoing to get JCP to stand down.  Not sure it matters that much as either way LDP will win.

12) In 三重(Mie) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a regional Mie based party (which is more aligned with CDP) candidate.  Main problem here is the local Mie party is very hostile to JCP so it would be tough to get JCP on board.  As long as they do the LDP will be underdogs here.

13) In 滋賀(Shiga) is the most messed up one of all.  This prefecture is lean LDP but it is not clear how the JRP vote here will go so in theory if could be competitive.  Main problem here is the CDP and DPP are both equally strong here and both have nominated a candidate.  So they have to work that out first.  CDP is on the rise here and would say their candidate should be the common opposition candidate.  DPP says their candidate is an ex-governor and is also a strong candidate.  And we did not even get to the JCP standing down part yet.

14) In 奈良(Nara) and 和歌山(Wakayama) CDP-DPP have agreed to a common candidate in the form of an independent although the independent in 和歌山(Wakayama) has a DPP background. 
 They are still working on JCP standing down.  Depending on how the JRP vote goes 奈良(Nara) might be competitive but overall LDP will win no matter what in both prefectures.

15) In the single district but dual prefecture 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) which is a strong LDP area, there are no common CDP-LDP candidate yet.   Most likely they might just hand this one to JCP since it is hopeless anyway.

16) In 岡山(Okayama) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a CDP candidate and work is ongoing to get JCP to stand down.  Not sure it matters that much as either way LDP will win even though this prefecture in the past had been competitive.

17) In Abe's home prefecture of 山口(Yamaguchi), CDP-DPP have agreed to support a DPP candidate and the JCP already preemptively stood down. Does not matter as LDP will win by a landslide one way or another.

18 ) In the single district but dual prefecture 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi), there is no common CDP-DPP candidate.  JCP is strong in 高知(Kōchi) so they might be handed this district since it is hopeless anyway.

19) In 佐賀(Saga) there is no common CDP-DPP candidate yet but there are talk of this rural prefecture tiring of LDP so there is a tiny chance of upset.  Most likely they will come up with something and then try to work with JCP to stand down.

20) In both 長崎(Nagasaki) and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a DPP candidate and the JCP already preemptively stood down. Does not matter as LDP will win by a landslide one way or another.

21) In both 熊本(Kumamoto) and 大分(Ōita) CDP-DPP has agreed to support an independent while JCP already stood down.  大分(Ōita) is competitive under these circumstances but is at best tossup for opposition while 熊本(Kumamoto) will go LDP no matter what.

22) In 宮崎(Miyazaki) CDP-DPP did not work out a common candidate yet but JCP already have stood down.  Does not matter as LDP is going to win one way or another.

23) In 沖縄(Okinawa) a regional MSCP will run with support of all opposition parties including JCP.  The MSCP incumbent is not running so it will be close and will depend on how the JRP vote goes.  In the end due to the base issue the LDP should be underdogs.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: urutzizu on January 30, 2019, 05:38:52 pm
Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I'm starting to wonder if there's some sort of unreported or inadequately-reported democratic backsliding on the level of voting rolls or freedom of the press or something going on in Japan. The repeated, clockwork-like LDP landslides at practically every level no matter what the Abe government is doing or has done lately are starting to get downright unsettling.
I think this has to do with Japanese Culture and Asian Values that value stability and continuity and shuns anything new/populist as well as a traditional bent towards conservatism/nationalism. Maybe our Chinese friend can give us more insight into that. Important to Remember that Japan never elected a Opposition Government until 1993.
Also Japanese still vividly remember the DPJ Government from 2009-2012 which, justifiably or not, is blamed for incompetence and economic mismanagement. So i think the reason why Japan is stubbornly refusing change, is not due to democratic backsliding but rather the lack of a convincing alternative.

It's way overstating this to call it "Asian values", btw. South Korea and Taiwan show clearly that other East Asian cultures, when in a democracy, have no compunction about throwing out the governing party. This would also be true if mainland China were a democracy. It's Japan specifically that has a very tradition-bound, hierarchical society that makes changes of power through democracy difficult and a permanent displacement of the "party of government" especially difficult. (The DPJ had the really bad luck of peaking right as the recession was taking hold, though.)

I accept that this Idea of "Asian Values" of Communitarianism and Social conservatism mixed with obedience/trust of Authority is a quite controversial one, and probably worth its own thread.

As a Asian (albeit not east Asian) i personally found it a quite convincing one, especially when trying to explain the quite conservative Attitudes of my own Parents and the Parents of most of my Asian friends, in quite a stark contrast to the quite liberal and somewhat rebellious ones of me and my friends who grew up in the West.

I think that it can be used as *one* of many factors explaining why conservative Governments in Singapore, Japan and Malaysia (until 2018) have been consistently reelected despite accusations of Authoritarianism and Elitism. Similarly i think it is *one* of the reasons, next to a totalitarian surveillance State obviously, why there has never been a really mass protest movement in the Peoples Republic of China where, i think, most have accepted a tacit trade-off between economic growth and political rights.

Your Point about the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Republic of Korea is correct but i would like to add that the election of Opposition/Liberal Governments in these Countries is a relatively new phenomena. A peaceful transfer of power to the liberal Opposition in these Countries only happened in 2000 and 1997 respectively. In Japan it was 1993. Of course both were authoritarian Military Dictatorships up until 1987/1988 but that they stuck with their previous rulers for a decade during democracy is quite telling. The influence of "Asian Values" in these Countries waned with the advent of the new Millennium and the era of Globalisation and the resulting massive spread of Western Values and Culture, allowing for the Election of more liberal "provocateurs" such as Kim Dae-Jung and Chen Shui-Bian.

Also i think the fact that both of them have presidential Systems, in contrast to Japan, Malaysia and Singapore, helped make changes in Power more frequent as such systems tend to favor confrontation and the development of two large alternating power blocs.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on January 31, 2019, 11:06:06 am
As far as the multi-member districts some are pretty interesting.

1) 北海道(Hokkaido) is a 3- member district.  It seems like none of the incumbants are running for re-election which is leading to a free-for all.  CDP, DPP and JCP will nominate one each.  LDP will nominate two.  JCP most likely will not get in so it will be a battle between DPP and LDP to see which one will win the third seat.  NPD might run as well which will throw off the balance of power between the two blocs.  All things equal LDP will most likely win 2 of the 3 seats due to better organization and vote allocation.

2) 埼玉(Saitama) is a 4- member district.  One of the ex-YP and now HP incumbent is not running for re-election so most likely this one will be boring where LDP KP CDP JCP will win one each and DPP as well as JRP will be the odd men out.

3) 神奈川(Kanagawa) is a 4- member district.  So now it is subdued but could really explode anytime.  LDP KP will nominate one each and the ex-YP now HP incumbent (also ex-governor) will run for re-election.  CDP DPP JCP will run one each and it seems SDP will also run a candidate as well.  On that basis it should be LDP KP CDP HP.   There are rumors that both CDP and LDP could nominate one more each which could lead to a free-for-all where either LDP or CDP could be wiped out with their votes being split but could also win 2 seats.  

4) 東京(Tokyo) is a 6- member district. It seems for now will be boring with 2 LDP, 1 KP, 1 JCP, 1 CDP, and 1 LP (to be DPP) winner.  Not sure if JRP will get into the act which could pose a threat to either LDP or LP/DPP if the candidate has strong personal appeal.  I am sure as the election gets closer there will be more surprises here.  

5) 愛知(Aichi) is a 4- member district.  It seems it will be boring with 1 LDP 1 KP 1 CDP 1 DPP winner.  An ex-YP incumbent will run as well JCP but neither are expected to get into the top 4.

6) 大阪(Osaka) is a 4- member district will be the most fun of all for now.  LDP and KP are expected to win 1 each and JRP on paper had the strength to win 2 seats.  But with the CDP surge and JRP not being what it used to be it is expected that JRP will most likely lose one to CDP.  But it seems that in addition to JCP running to split the non-LDP non-JRP vote, DPP will also run a candidate.  That provoked LDP to run a second candidate to try to cash in on the large scale split of the non-LDP vote.  This lowers the threshold of getting election to actually give JCP a chance.   So now we have 7 viable candidates (2 LDP, 1 KP, 2 JRP, 1 CDP, 1 JCP) and 1 semo-viable candidate (1 DPP) for 4 spots.  Anything can happen ranging from LDP winning 2 seats to being wiped out.  Same with JRP.

7) 兵庫(Hyōgo) is a 3- member district.  LDP and KP should win one each and it will be a battle between JRP and CDP for the third spot.

8 ) 京都(Kyoto) is a 2- member district.  LDP will win one and CDP should be able to beat back JCP to win the second seat.  DPP insisting on running a candidate now could split the non-LDP non-JCP vote to let in JCP in this fairly strong city for JCP.



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 02, 2019, 09:27:47 am
JCP mouthpiece reports that there was a high level meeting of the heads of 5 parties and 1 bloc over how to share 1-member districts in Upper house elections in the Summer.  The 4 parties are JCP, CDP, DPP, SDP and LP and the 1 bloc is the ex-DP bloc (of around 7 Lower House MPs) led by ex-PM 野田 佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko).

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2019, 08:35:42 am
Mainichi poll on PR section in July Upper House election

LDP  35%
CDP  14%
JCP    4%
KP     4%
JRP    4%
DPP   1%

2016 Jan Mainichi poll
LDP 36%   -> 2016 July PR result 35.91%
DPJ 10%   -> 2016 July DP PR result 20.98%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2019, 08:50:56 am
Summery of recent media polls on PR section for July Upper House

             Asahi    Yomiuri     Sankei    Mainichi       Average
LDP          41         40          39.3         35             38.8
CDP         15          12          14.5        14             13.9
DPP           2           1            1.9          1               1.5
KP             5           4            4.1          4               4.3
JCP           5           5            3.4           4               4.4
JRP           4           2            2.7           4               3.2
LP             2          1             0.5         NA               1.2
HP            1          0             0.5          NA              0.5
SDP          1          1             1.1          NA              1.0


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 04, 2019, 10:31:54 am
I think this has to do with Japanese Culture and Asian Values that value stability and continuity and shuns anything new/populist as well as a traditional bent towards conservatism/nationalism. Maybe our Chinese friend can give us more insight into that. Important to Remember that Japan never elected a Opposition Government until 1993.
Also Japanese still vividly remember the DPJ Government from 2009-2012 which, justifiably or not, is blamed for incompetence and economic mismanagement. So i think the reason why Japan is stubbornly refusing change, is not due to democratic backsliding but rather the lack of a convincing alternative.

I put some thought into this and found that a variation of "stability" to play a role although only in conjunction with other features of the Japanese lower house election system.  Namely incumbency does play a role and incumbent tend to over-perform in Japan which you argue is part of the "stability" thesis since the LDP is the natural party of governance so a LDP candidate is more likely to be the incumbent.

In many ways the 1993 reform to create FPTP seats for Lower House elections was suppose to create two parties of equal strength that alternate in power (just like USA.)    But the incumbency  advantage plus some aspects of the election system is delaying and even preventing this outcome. Namely the PR section of the election system which include the "Best Loser" section where a candidate can be dual listed as a district candidate and on the PR slate and seat allocated on the PR slate based on "Best Loser" sequence.  The most obvious thesis of the PR section is that it lets micro-parties like SDP and LP stick around to win a few seats where if the PR section did not exist these parties would have merged into the main center-left opposition party years ago.   

But me digging into this as I am building out my model for the next lower house election as I regress across several different variable  has led to other discoveries, namely: The incumbency advantage extends to the district loser but revived on the PR slate as a "best loser."  Namely if a candidate lost a district election but kept it close enough tends to be very competitive in the next district race and pretty much erases the incumbency advantage of the previous winner.

This dynamic plus the existence of the PR slate has created the following mutually reinforcing dynamics if Japanese Lower House races
a) As mentioned before small opposition parities have reasons to stick around to try to capture PR seats

b) JCP wants to get its message out there so it has an incentive to run everywhere and of course split the anti-LDP vote

c) Opposition parities has an incentive to run candidates in district seats in order to push up their PR vote to get seats and along the way split the anti-LDP vote

d) In Any district, the opposition parties are in a desperate race against each other to do well enough so they become a "Best Loser" PR winner so they become competitive with LDP exit election.  An example would be assume the result of a district election
LDP                 45%
Opposition A    25%
Opposition B    20%
JCP                 10%

Here in theory Opposition party B should stand down to take on LDP.  But beyond Opposition party B trying to max out its PR vote by having a candidate run but it is fearful that if Opposition party A does well enough to make its candidate a "Best Loser" PR seat MP then the next election will become
LDP                45%
Opposition A   35%
Opposition B   10%
JCP                 10%

Where Opposition party B becomes marginalized and its PR vote share will shrink.  As a result both A and B will go all out to max out its vote share and even prevent the other opposition party from doing well enough to make it into the "Best Lower" PR winner.

e) Since LDP wins most FPTP seats anyway then pretty much ALL LDP candidates that run in district seats are elected since the LDP PR vote is high enough that most LDP district losers will be elected on the PR slate.  What this means is that next election the LDP loser is really an incumbent  as well and nullifies the opposition winner incumbency advantage   

f) Of course the opposite of e) is that since opposition parities win so few FPTP seats a large number of opposition district losers will have to fight each other for a slice of the PR "Best Loser" seats available with many opposition losers not making it on the PR slate and have to face a LDP incumbency advantage next election.

g) For an LDP inducement his only threat then is if his main opponent can do well enough to make it onto the PR slate of "Best Lower" winners so that  opposition candidate can nullify his incumbency advantage next election.  So what does the LDP candidate do? He goes all out to win by a massive margin so his opponent does not do well enough to become a PR list winner.  But that has the effect of pushing up LDP turnout  and getting more LDP PR seats at the expense of opposition PR slots which are so vital to get the opposition to be competitive in district seats overall.

To some extent the 2017 election saw the opposition came up with strategies to counteract this dynamic.  It seems the way the opposition can slowly erode this LDP self-reinforcing advantage is the try to gain more PR seats,  Having CDP and HP run separately on PR to appeal to different segments of the anti-LDP vote but then to have tactical understanding in many seats is a way to slowing erode this LDP built in advantage.  It will take a long time though.  In the end the LDP will just have to mess up like in 2007-2009 to lose power.  In the meantime the opposition  can only come up with workaround to erode this built in advantage. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 07, 2019, 08:54:14 am
Asahi magazine came out with two projections from their political analysts for Upper House elections

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One of them most assumes that joint opposition candidates run as independents 
         District    PR    Total    Implied PR vote
LDP      35        20      55              38.3%
KP         7          6       13             11.5%
CDP       7          7      14              13.4%
DPP       7          7      14              13.4%
JCP        2          6       8               11.5%
JRP        1          3       4                5.7%
SDP       0          1        1               1.9%
HP         0          0        0               1.4%
LP          1         0        1               1.4%
Ind        1                   1
OPPN    13                 13           (Opposition joint candidates)

The other assumes that most joint opposition candidates will run with party label
         District    PR    Total    Implied PR vote
LDP      35        17      52              32.5%
KP         7          6       13             11.5%
CDP     16        14      30              26.8%
DPP       8          4      12                7.7%
JCP        3          6       9               11.5%
JRP        2          2       4                3.8%
SDP       0          1        1               1.9%
HP         0          0        0               1.4%
LP          1         0        1               1.4%
Ind        2                   1
 
The two mostly agrees on district seats but differs greatly on the PR vote.  I think both underestimate KP PR vote unless both expect a very high turnout election.  In which case both overestimate JCP PR vote.

The magazine also came out with a Lower House election projection where LDP will lose over 40 seats and be close to losing absolute majority. 
()

As mentioned before at this stage most projections tend to be negative on LDP just to sell more magazines.   EVERYONE expects LDP to do well so a negative project will raise eyebrows and get people to buy the magazine to read what is unexpected.  These magazines played the same game before the 2016 Upper House elections and the 2017 Lower House elections.  About two weeks before the elections are when the REAL (and more pro-LDP) projections come out.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 10, 2019, 04:49:46 pm
It seems the DPP candidate for the 4- member 大阪(Osaka) Upper House district seat is にしゃんた or Jayasinghe Arachilage Thusitha Devapriya Nishantha who is an economics Professor that is from Sri Lanka and became a citizen of Japan back in 2005.  He is a long short though as DPP is not expected to win a seat here.
()

On the flip side with LDP and JRP both nominating 2 candidates, 1 KP candidate, 1 CDP and 1 JCP candidate the DPP candidate could sneak through if the DPP had a unusually good turnout plus the votes are poorly distributed for both LDP and JRP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 17, 2019, 11:25:04 am
Given recent talk that the LDP already nominated a second candidate in 4- seat 大阪(Osaka) and
 will work toward nominating a second candidate in the 4- seat 神奈川(Kanagawa) as well as working toward a second candidate in 2- member 広島(Hiroshima) it seems that the LDP is going all out to get a large contingent elected in the 2019 Upper House election.  Given the large size of the LDP-KP majority there seems to be no real reason to do with other than

a) LDP is planning for a world where the LDP-KP alliance might be over
OR
b) LDP is planning to push for a change in the Constitution after the July 2019 elections

a) has been talked about last year but mostly died down recently which makes b) more likely.  It seems the LDP has decided to take an approach of going for a low turnout 2019 election where there will be little if any talk of Constitutional change to avoid provoking marginal anti-LDP voters to come out.  Some polls show why this might be a wise strategy.

In swing prefecture 山梨(Yamanashi) a poll just came out on Constitutional change had support/opposition to be at 40.9/45.9.  A breakdown by age seems to show that support for Constitutional change is higher with 18/19 year olds as well as those who are in their 30s and 40s with strong opposition coming from those 50 and above.
()

In some way this becomes a trap for LDP.  In a low turnout election the 50s and older turnout will be relatively higher but they oppose Constitutional change and in a high turnout election the pro-Constitutional change youth will come out but so will marginal anti-LDP voters.  It seems the LDP plan is to go for a low turnout election and not talk about Constitutional change and hope the voters 50 and older will not vote based on Constitutional change.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 17, 2019, 11:27:32 am
Abe cabinet approval rating continues to recover from the new immigration law earlier in the year
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While LDP support continues a steady recovery while CDP support falls
()

Most recent polls I seen have CDP support falling but CDP PR vote for 2019 Upper House elections holding steady and in fact rising along with LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 17, 2019, 08:20:42 pm
On 2/24 there will be a referendum in 沖縄(Okinawa) where the voters in the prefecture will vote in a non-binding referendum on support, oppose or no opinion on the relocation of the USA base in Futenma.

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The two polls so far has it at

            Support     Oppose    No Opinion
Kyodo    15.8           67.6          13.1
Asahi     16              59             21
()
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 23, 2019, 05:42:31 pm
沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation tomorrow.  Okinawa Times poll has it at
for the 3 possible choices

For             15.8
Against       67.6
No Opinion  13.1
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 24, 2019, 07:33:25 am
沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation voting done. Exit poll show massive majority for No on the order of 70%+

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 24, 2019, 08:05:21 am
Another exit poll for 沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation has it at

For             15.7
Against       78.4
No Opinion   5.9
()


With 14% counted (mostly rural areas) the current count is

For             19.7
Against       71.7
No Opinion    8.5


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 24, 2019, 08:43:06 am
With 84% counted (mostly rural areas) the current count for 沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation  is

For             19.5
Against       71.6
No Opinion    8.8


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 24, 2019, 09:51:23 am
With 98% counted (mostly rural areas) the current count for 沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation  is

For             18.7
Against       73.2
No Opinion    8.1

Exit poll party ID are

LDP   18%
CDP    7%
KP      2%
JCP     5%
JRP     1%
SDP    6%
OSMP  2%
Ind    55%

()

It seems based on this a good % of the LDP vote also voted No even after taking into account that some of the LDP party ID are really KP ID in disguise.  KP is mostly neutral on the base issue and I suspect a good part of "No Opinion".


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 24, 2019, 10:01:31 am
All votes counted for 沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation

For             19.1
Against       72.2
No Opinion    8.8

Anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) won around 397K votes which is more than any other politician in Okinawan electoral history but the Against Vote reached 434K.

Of course the Abe administration already stated ahead of time that the planned relocation of the base will continue regardless of the result of the referendum.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on February 25, 2019, 08:12:42 am
All Japan NNN poll before the referendum has support/against the  沖縄(Okinawa) base relocation at 36/47

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Which I assume opposition will rise after the landslide win for Against.

If Abe insists on going forward with the base re-location I have to assume this will hurt the LDP.  Abe has no choice though since close alliance with USA is a key plank of the LDP   I think all things equal the chances of a double election in July has gone up as that might be the only chance for LDP-KP plus JRP to keep 2/3 of the seats in both houses so there can be a push for Constitutional change after the elections. The premise there is that the opposition will not be ready and not have enough resources and candidates to fight a double election.  In such a case the Abe would be taking a big risk since turnout will be higher and marginal voters tend to vote for non-JCP opposition.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 04, 2019, 12:40:33 pm
One of the accomplishments  that PM Abe was hoping lock down in 2019 to help the LDP in upcoming elections is some sort of deal with Russia over the Kuril Islands (known in Japan as the Northern territories (北方領土)) north of 北海道(Hokkaido) which was taken over by USSR in 1945.  There are 4 islands in all that Russia now still controls.   Pretty much no Japanese lives there anymore but a lot of Japanese ancestral graves are on these islands.
()

Abe's strategy seems to be to get Putin to give back 2 of the islands now in return for Japanese economic investments in Russia with more talks on what is the status of the other 2.  Problem is Japanese public opinion has only 22% supporting such a plan.  While 42% want 2 islands returned asap and then economic help for Russia be linked with the the return of the remaining 2 islands.
()

Of course this entire thin s is a no go because Russian public opinion is opposed to anything like this where it is 77% against, only 9% for any deal where any island is given to Japan in return for economic benefits for Russia.
https://fom.ru/Mir/14152

I doubt this would go anywhere in the era of rule by the masses.  In earlier times when it was the rule of royalty some deal like this could work but not this era.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2019, 08:56:00 am
The April Unified Local elections will be April 7th for all the 11 governor races, all the prefecture assemblies, head of 6 specialized cities and 17 specialized city assemblies.   April 21st will be less interesting since that will be most of the village heads and village assemblies.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 19, 2019, 02:12:36 pm
There are talks from LDP high command that Abe might run for a 4th term when his 3rd term is up in 2021.  When Abe ran for a 3rd term in 2018 it was already breaking with LDP precedent.    What Abe seems to want to do is that he feels fairly confidant that he will win 2018 Upper House elections and now want to lead the LDP into the next general elections in 2021.

Latest Ashai poll has it at 56-27 opposed to Abe getting a 4th term as LDP Prez.  Note that when asked to name an alternative to Abe within the LDP most respondents could not.  What is key to note that LDP voters are for Abe getting a 4th term as LDP Prez in 2021.
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 21, 2019, 08:15:37 pm
In addition to the 41 prefecture assemblies that see elections April 7 there will also be 11 prefecture governor elections.  Only 1 北海道(Hokkaido) will see a LDP vs Opposition showdown.  All of the others are either LDP-KP plus Opposition backing a joint candidate vs a JCP candidate or LDP "civil war" races where two candidates with LDP backgrounds are running and the Opposition mostly staying out the one.

One governor election that is special is 大阪(Osaka).  The term for the position is due for an election in 2020 but the JRP governor and the JRP mayor of the Osaka city both resigned to run for the other position in a swap.  This is really the continuation of JRP founder Hashimoto plan to restructure  大阪(Osaka) into a Metropolis like Tokyo to give it greater autonomy power and prestige to rival Tokyo.  This plan was defeated in a referendum in 2015 which led to Hashimoto resigning and quitting politics (for now.)   The current governor of 大阪(Osaka) 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) who is the also the current head of JRP make a big push for this plan again and was blocked by JRP's ally (in Osaka) KP.
 As a result he is going on a gambit to swap roles with the JRP mayor of Osaka city via a pair of by-election as a symbolic referendum on the Osaka Metropolis plan.  Both will be election but I suspect the plan will go nowhere.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 21, 2019, 08:56:52 pm
Map of April 7 governor elections.
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北海道(Hokkaido) - Open seat - LDP-KP vs United opposition (including JCP)
福井(Fukui) - incumbent which was backed by LDP had a falling out with some factions of the LDP which nominated a LDP-JRP candidate to challenge him.  LDP base split between the two candidates.  Opposition backing incumbent in this LDP civil war.  JCP also in the fray
神奈川(Kanagawa) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
鳥取(Tottori) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
島根(Shimane) LDP civil war with JCP in the mix as well, opposition staying neutral
三重(Mie) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
奈良(Nara) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP backed independent
福岡(Fukuoka) LDP civil war with incumbent which was backed by the LDP taking on LDP candidate backed by another faction.  Opposition staying neutral.  JCP also in the fray
大阪(Osaka) Only in Osaka.  JRP vs Grand Alliance of LDP-KP-CDP-JCP.  JRP will win
大分(Ōita) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
徳島(Tokushima) LDP backed incumbent vs LDP rebel vs JCP. Opposition mostly staying out of the way


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 24, 2019, 03:27:33 pm
One thing that is different about the 大阪(Osaka) governor and prefecture assembly than last couple of cycles is that due to the Osaka Metropolis plan controversy the KP is now clearly pitted against JRP whereas in previously since 2008 the KP have either been allied with JRP or at least took a neutral position in the JRP battles with LDP.  So JRP, I think, still have the upper hand but I think it will do a good deal worse than the 2015-2016 election cycle here.   The recent CDP surge in 大阪(Osaka) does not help either.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 27, 2019, 08:26:11 am
Polling for the two higher profile and competitive governor races which are 北海道(Hokkaido) and  大阪(Osaka) has the pro-LDP candidate slightly ahead of the Grand alliance candidate (CDP-DPP-SDP-LP-JCP) and the JCP candidate (who is currently the Osaka mayor) well ahead of the anti-JRP Grand alliance candidate (LDP-KP-CDP-JCP). 

In 大阪(Osaka) itself the Metropolis plan support is higher than those that oppose 39.9 vs 31.8
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Which means if the JRP move to trigger by-elections for Osaka governor and mayor race is successful then we can look to another referendum on this topic which was defeated narrowly in 2015.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 27, 2019, 08:51:41 am
With the Emperor about to step down and the 平成 (Heisei) period about to come to an end, a poll was done to ask who were the 3 most effective PMs of the 平成 (Heisei) period.  The result were

Koizumi (2001-2006)              77%
Abe (2006-2007, 2012-)         38%
Takesh**ta (1987-1989)            22%
Obuchi (1998-2000)               15%
Hashimoto (1996-1998)          13%

Given how long Abe have lasted and is the current incumbent it is surprising that only 38% had him in the top 3.  It goes to show how relatively Abe is with the general population even as he is very popular with the LDP base and LDP office holders.  

Takesh**ta  being there kinda makes sense as he was PM during the Japan economic peak.  Obuchi is most likely the JFK effect as he died in office so people got to project what he could have done as PM even though his time in office did not leave a positive record.

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 29, 2019, 07:22:11 am
It seems in the upcoming phase I of the Unified Local elections on April 7th most the races will be boring.  The only outstanding questions are:

1) Can the joint opposition candidate win an upset victory over the pro-LDP candidate in the 北海道(Hokkaido) governor race
2) Can  LDP-KP alliance  capture a majority in the prefecture assembly in 三重(Mie) whereas in 2015 it was held below majority.
3) Can the LDP-KP alliance capture a majority in the prefecture assembly in 大阪(Osaka) over JRP?  It is clear that the JRP will win the governor and mayor races and with KP going with LDP the JRP should be in trouble in the prefecture assembly. 

Rest of the races will go to LDP or LDP rebels for governor races and the LDP-KP will win majorities in the other 39 prefecture assemblies.  The best CDP DPP can do is to make sure the CDP DPP split does not lose seats from where undivided DPJ won in 2015 with CDP perhaps eating into the JCP vote.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 30, 2019, 06:08:26 pm
Yomiuri poll on  大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly elections

JRP    38%
LDP   18%
KP      7%
CDP    5%
JCP     5%

Looks like JRP is set to capture a majority or near majority even though KP will be having an alliance with LDP.

Back in 2015 it was (JRP had an alliance with KP)
           Contest  Win      Vote share
LDP       51         25         28.88%
KP         15         15        10.73%
JRP        55         43        42.34%
DPJ       15           2          5.32%
JCP       35           3         11.83%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 31, 2019, 07:21:18 am
In the JRP castle move in  大阪(Osaka) of swapping the governor and mayor positions, it seems the governor race is in the bag for JRP but in the mayor race the LDP is putting up the same heavyweight MLA that lost the 2015 Osaka mayor race and seems to be neck-to-neck with JRP leader and current governor 松井一郎 (Matsui Ichirō).  The LDP candidate 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Ken) actually gave up on chance to run for the LDP in the Upper House race in the summer just to run in this by-election so he must figure his chances are not bad even though he was beaten decisively in 2015.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 31, 2019, 01:47:37 pm
The emperor is set to stop down April 30.  That means on that date the "Period" on the Japanese calendar will change from 平成(Heisei) to a new period.  The government/Imperial family is set to come out tomorrow with the "Period" that will be used starting April 30.   

1989 when the new "Period" of  平成(Heisei) was announced
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There is fierce battles between various media outlet to get the scoop on what is the new "Period"

There are several "rules" on the name of this new "Period." 

1) Since the concept of "Period" comes from China the new name must be referenced in one of the several "canon" Classical Chinese text
2) The romanticized version of the new "Period" cannot start with M T S nor H.  These letters were the starting letter of the Romanticized versions of the last 4 "Periods" and people often use shorthand of H25 for "The 25th year of  平成(Heisei)" (which btw is 2006).  So any "Period" name that create namespace collisions would be a problem.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on March 31, 2019, 09:48:27 pm
New Era/Period for Japan will be 令和(Reiwa)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on April 01, 2019, 12:27:44 pm
New Era/Period for Japan will be 令和(Reiwa)
do you think this is a good name?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 01, 2019, 05:43:16 pm

Hard to say as I am not Japanese and it will be hard for me to judge.  Main issue should be its serve its functional purpose.

令和(Reiwa) comes from a Japanese literary text versus a Chinese one for the first time on several centuries that a Japanese period did not come from a classical Chinese text.    It comes from "萬葉集" or Man'yōshū: 「於時初春月、氣淑風、梅披鏡前之粉、蘭熏珮後之香」which is the all Kanji form when it was written in the 8th century.  In modern Japanese it is "(初春の令月にして、氣淑く風和ぎ、梅は鏡前の粉を披き、蘭は珮後の香を薫す)

It is said that Abe really wanted the period to reflect Japanese traditions versus Chinese traditions and that could be true although this has been done in the past as well although it is rare.  Sorry if this is sour grapes from me but if this is true then Abe own name reflects Chinese traditions.  晉三 or Shinzo of Abe Shinzo 安倍晉三 refers to 三晉 which refers to the ancient Chinese Duchy of 晉 (Jin) being split into 3 separate duchies or  三晉 or 3 Jin of Chao(趙) Wei(魏) and Han(韓) around 403AD.  Even after the split these 3 duchies (later kingdoms) were refereed to as the 三晉 or 3 Jin.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 02, 2019, 06:35:29 am
New Kyodo poll indicated that 73.7% support the selection of 令和(Reiwa) as the new imperial era name.  85% viewed positively the government's choice of a name from a Japanese classic, rather than a Chinese source.  Abe cabinet approval  surged 9.5% to 52.8% while disapproval fell  8.5% to 32.4%.  It seems Abe hit on a winner here and just in time before the unified local elections next week.   Looks like this will solidify the LDP-KP landslide.   Only elections that are still in doubt are the  大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly elections to see which party comes out on top (LDP-KP or JRP.)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 04, 2019, 08:01:29 am
Latest Abe approval curve which surged due to the positive feelings over the choice of the new imperial era name.
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LDP support (pink) rising slightly)
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CDP support(Blue) falling while JRP(Green) support is rising.  Most likely due to the news around LDP-JRP battle over 大阪(Osaka)
()

Overall the momentum is strongly in favor of Abe/LDP going into the Unified Local elections this weekend.  CDP-DPP opposition has to hope that this momentum dissipates by the July Upper House elections.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 05, 2019, 11:24:22 am
塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) who is an Upper House MP from 新潟(Niigata) had to resign as land minister after he said he made a special decision to restart a road project for the constituencies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso to please them in a speech at a campaign rally.

This comes at a bad time right before the Unified Local election this weekend.  Also 塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) himself is up for re-election in July in a swing district.  His seat was seen as a tossup JCP and DPP already withdrew their candidate to back a CDP candidate.  Now it seems likely LDP will lose this seat in July.  Getting a new LDP candidate in there could turn things around but I suspect the impact will be large enough to cost LDP this seat.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 05, 2019, 11:57:44 am
There will be 2 Lower House by-elections on April 21st in 大阪(Osaka) 12th where the LDP incumbent passed away and 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd where the LP incumbent ran and won the 沖縄(Okinawa) governor race.

In 大阪(Osaka) 12th it will be LDP vs JRP vs ex-HP independent vs JCP.  On the opposition side a ex-DPJ ex-HP MP for this district who was elected as a PR candidate in 2017 wants to run and has implicit DPP support. JCP who objects to the center-right background of this ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate ran its own candidate.  CDP seems to be neutral in all this.  The LDP is running the son of the deceased LDP MP to cash in on the sympathetic factor.  With the opposition divided the race will be a LDP vs JRP race. 

In 2014 the results were

LDP   45.0%
JRP   40.6% (backed by HP)
JCP   14.4%

PR it was

LDP   25.20%   
KP     19.21%         
HRP   0.42%   
JRP   25.34%   
HP     9.40%   
CDP  11.63%   
SDP    0.62%   
JCP    8.17%

So a good part of the JRP 2014 vote came from HP PR and even CDP PR voters.  Now with with a non-JCP Opposition candidate in the mix the LPD will have a clear edge as 2017 HP PR voters will most likely split between the JRP and ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate while 2017 CDP PR voters will split their vote between the JCP and ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate.


In 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd it will be a straight LDP (looks like backed by JRP) vs AO (backed by all opposition parties including JCP) 

In 2014 the results were

LP       57.9%
LDP     40.3%
HRP      1.8%

PR it was

LDP    23.50%   
KP     18.90%         
HRP     1.32%   
JRP      4.43%   
HP      13.51%   
CDP    15.49%   
SDP    13.17%   
HRP    9.70%

It is clear that the LDP candidate in 2014 under performed the 2017 LDP+KP PR vote share as the 2017 JPR PR vote should have been split between LDP and LP.  This is due to the personal vote of the LP candidate (who is now governor).

The LDP candidate will be an ex-Upper House MP so the LDP if anything will have a candidate quietly advantage.  The AO (AO is an local grand alliance of anti-base parties) candidate who has a LP background.    If the LDP candidate can consolidate the 2017 LDP+KP+JRP+HRP PR vote then then she will be within striking distance of pulling off an upset and winning the seat.  Most likely she will come close but miss.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 05, 2019, 12:18:05 pm
This weekend governor races predictions (most which are obvious)

北海道(Hokkaido): Open seat: LDP candidate defeat common opposition candidate
神奈川(Kanagawa): Pro-LDP Incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties defeat JCP candidate
福井(Fukui): Pro-LDP candidate defeat Opposition backed and formerly LDP backed incumbent as well as JCP
三重(Mie):  Pro-LDP Incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties defeat JCP candidate
大阪(Osaka): JRP defeat LDP candidate backed by KP and CDP as well as implicitly CDP and JCP
奈良(Nara): LDP-KP-DPP backed incumbent defeat opposition candidate backed implicitly CDP and JCP
鳥取(Tottori): pro-LDP incumbent defeat JCP candidate as well as opposition candidate backed implicitly CDP
島根(Shimane): Open seat: LDP rebel defeat LDP candidate as well as another LDP rebel and JCP candidate (this one seems to be neck-to-neck between the LDP rebel and LDP candidate)
徳島(Tokushima): LDP backed incumbent defeat LDP rebel and JCP candidate
福岡(Fukuoka): Incumbent who used to be backed by LDP and now  implicitly backed by non-JCP opposition defeat LDP candidate and JCP  
大分(Ōita): LDP backed incumbent defeat JCP candidate

Its pretty sad when the only race that is exciting is 島根(Shimane) where it will be LDP vs LDP rebel where it is neck-to-neck.  All the others I think are pretty much set.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 05, 2019, 12:42:11 pm
Also there will be mayor races for some key cities where I will make some predictions

札幌市(Sapporo): Pro-LDP Incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties defeat pro-JCP candidate
相模原市(Sagamihara): Pro-DPP candidate defeat pro-LDP incumbent and two other LDP rebels as a LDP split will cost LDP a seat
静岡市(Shizuoka): Pro-LDP incumbent defeat ex-mayor LDP rebel and JCP
浜松市(Hamamatsu): Pro-CDP incumbent defeat LDP and JCP candidates
大阪市(Osaka): JRP defeat LDP candidate backed by KP and CDP as well as implicitly CDP and JCP
広島市(Hiroshima):  Pro-LDP incumbent backed by KP and DPP defeat LDP rebel and JCP candidate 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 05:41:40 am
Turnout in 大阪(Osaka) 1%-2%higher than in 2016.  I guess slightly better news for LDP than JRP but absent a turnout surge greater then that JRP should have this.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 06:01:32 am
NHK Exit poll has JRP winning both 大阪(Osaka) governor and mayor races.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 06:08:35 am
Every governor and key mayor race called except for a couple.  All of them went the way I predicted (it does not take a genius to make those calls).   Uncalled ones are

島根(Shimane) governor Open seat: where I predicted LDP rebel defeat LDP candidate as well as another LDP rebel and JCP candidate (this one seems to be neck-to-neck between the LDP rebel and LDP candidate)

静岡市(Shizuoka) mayor where I predicted Pro-LDP incumbent defeat ex-mayor LDP rebel and JCP

島根(Shimane)  I knew was going to be neck-to-neck.  I guess the LDP rebel ex-mayor is making it a neck-to-neck race against the LDP incumbent. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 06:17:55 am
Looks like the JRP gamble in 大阪(Osaka) has worked.  Most likely JRP will be able to capture a majority or near majority in the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 06:20:58 am
Exit polls in 大阪(Osaka) City show that support for Osaka Metropolis plan to be 58-42.   If so look forward to JRP getting another referendum on this after it failed narrowly in 2015.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 08:02:44 am
島根(Shimane) governor called for the LDP rebel over the official LDP candidate just like I predicted will be the case.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 08:05:53 am
Asahi exit poll for  大阪(Osaka) City mayor contest.  The basic idea behind the JRP landslide is that the JRP candidate won 1/3 (33%) of the LDP supporters which is 21% of the electorate and wins pretty much all of the JRP supporters which is 44% of the electorate.
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 08:40:50 am
静岡市(Shizuoka) mayor called for pro-LDP incumbent over ex-mayor LDP rebel and JCP.  This completes my perfect prediction record for all key races this cycle.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 09:05:06 am
In two prefectures the local LDP has turned on the incumbent governor that they backed 2015 by pushing their own candidate. 

In 福井(Fukui) it worked where with 58% of the vote it is LDP 55.4% Opposition backed incumbent 37.9% JCP 6.7%.   

In 福岡(Fukuoka) it failed comically with 48% of the vote it is Opposition backed incumbent 72.8% LDP 20.0% JCP 7.1%.  It seems huge part of the LDP base rejected the attempt of a part of the local LDP to impose their own candidate over a traditionally pro-LDP incumbent that also has opposition support. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 09:07:43 am
In 北海道(Hokkaido) governor race what was suppose to be a close contest for an open seat between LDP-KP-NPD and CDP-DPP-LP-SDP-JCP became a blowout with 45% of the vote counted it is LDP-KP-JRP-NPD 61.1% CDP-DPP-LP-SDP-JCP 38.9%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 09:09:30 am
In 大阪(Osaka) governor race it is a landslide with 45% of the vote counted with JRP 62.2% LDP-KP-DPP 37.6% (with implicit support from CDP and JCP)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 09:11:07 am
The open seat in 島根(Shimane) governor race with 91% of the vote counted has LDP rebel 43.2% LDP 34.0% Another LDP rebel 12.3% JCP 12.5%,


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 10:56:16 am
Not call counting is done yet so a bunch of seats are still not called for 大阪(Osaka) prefecture elections but it seems that JRP made a bunch of gains from LDP and should be headed to a narrow majority by itself without KP which has shifted to LDP anyway.  The JRP "castle" gambit worked.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 11:37:07 am
With 87 out of 88 seats in the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture called JRP has won 51.  This is a first in Japanese prefecture assembly election history that a party that is not called the LDP has ever won a majority of seats.  Even the Koike Tokyo TPFA-KP landslide victory over LDP in 2017 did not have TPFA winning a majority of seats by itself.  JRP took on LDP-KP by itself and defeated this powerful combo.  It seems, if anything, Osaka regionalism has grown this last decade than dissipate even as JRP shrivels to near nothing outside of the Kinki region.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 11:39:29 am
A superficial glance at the various prefecture assembly results seems to indicate that CDP is growing at the expense LDP JCP DPP and even KP in urban areas.  In rural areas DPP is losing ground to LDP.  Overall I think LDP-KP lost a bit of ground outside 大阪(Osaka) relative to 2015 but it is very small and mostly because of the CDP urban surge.  In 大阪(Osaka) clearly LDP-KP lost a good amount of ground to JRP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 11, 2019, 04:24:47 pm
Abe just had to accept the resignation of 桜田 義孝(Sakurada Yosh**taka) who is his Olympics minister due to remarks deemed offensive to people affected by the 2011 earthquake and tsunami.  Of course Sakurada is pretty famous for these gaffes.  Back in 2018 he admired that he has never used a computer before.    Anyway, another blow to Abe although nowhere near to be fatal.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 14, 2019, 08:39:36 am
After the prefecture assembly elections the situation in the  by-elections in 大阪(Osaka) 12th and 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd looks a lot darker.  Recent polls seems that in 大阪(Osaka) 12th where LDP should have an edge the JRP candidate have surged in from of the LDP, mostly due the loss of support  of the ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate to the JRP candidate due to lukewarm support from DPP-CDP.  I think if DPP-CDP-JCP could have consolidated around a candidate then they could have make it a close 3 way race but as it is JRP seems to be running away with it.  In 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd it seems the joint opposition candidate is surging ahead in the polls despite the LDP nominating a strong candidate (former LDP MP from the Upper House.)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 15, 2019, 10:38:53 am
Ashai poll on PR vote for Upper Hose elections in July (diff from March poll)

LDP    39 (-1)
KP        5(-1)
JRP       7(+3)
HP         0(-1)
DPP       2(--)
LP         1(-1)
CDP    13(+1)
SDP      1(-1)
JCP       6(--)

Big gains for JRP after its 大阪(Osaka) victory in governor and prefecture assembly elections.  All things equal LP and DPP will most likely run a joint PR list.

My current guess on PR seats are

LDP     18
KP         7
JRP        3
HP         0
DPP-LP   3
CDP     13
JCP        5

I think JRP might do one better at the expense of JCP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 20, 2019, 07:52:19 am
All signs are that for the 大阪(Osaka) 12th and 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd by-election tomorrow the LDP continues to implode.  It seems in 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd LDP might get blown out 60-40. 

In 大阪(Osaka) 12th the LDP is clearly well behind the JRP candidate and now risks being pushed to 3rd by the by the ex-DPJ ex-HP PR MP who is tactically being backed by DPP and perhaps CDP.  The candidate backed by JCP-SDP-LP is clearly running 4th.  My best guess for this by-election would be

JRP                39
LDP                27
ex-DPJ ex-HP  25 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 06:03:46 am
NHK exit polls calls it for JRP in 大阪(Osaka) 12th and united opposition in 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd.  It does seem like the JRP victory is not large so NHK cannot be 100% sure.  JRP not celebrating yet.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 06:06:53 am
大阪(Osaka) 12th exit polls. LDP edges out ex-DPK ex-HP independent for second

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 06:20:31 am
NHK exit polls for 大阪(Osaka) 12th seems to be closer than MBS so they are not making a call yet.  NHK exit poll party ID are

LDP   26
KP       8
JRP    30
DPP     1
CDP     4
JCP      5

with the JRP candidate winning 80% of the JRP vote and 20% of the LDP vote.  The LDP candidate is winning 50% if the LDP vote and 60% of KP vote.  These numbers seems to indicate an easy JRP win.  Not sure why NHK is not calling it with these numbers.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 06:24:46 am
Eyeballing the MBS exit poll for 大阪(Osaka) 12th it seems to indicate something like

JRP                42
LDP                26
ex-DPJ ex-HP  23 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9

Not too far from my prediction


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 06:34:13 am
Exit polls for 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd seems to have it as a blowout.  United opposition wins 64.4% of the early vote and 70% of election day vote.  I suspect this exit poll have an urban bias and the LDP will not be beaten that badly.
()

LDP candidate wins 84% of the LDP/KP/JRP vote and pretty much nothing else
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 06:53:52 am
大阪(Osaka) 12th exit polls show a strong majority for Osaka Metropolis plan.  JRP seems to be riding this for a second wind in Osaka.  In 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd of course it is all about the base. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 07:08:55 am
A cross-tab based estimate of NHK exit polls for 大阪(Osaka) 12th exit polls would yield

JRP                41.1
LDP                28.3
ex-DPJ ex-HP  20.7 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9.3

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 07:23:39 am
沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd exit poll by age.  LDP winning the youth vote but gets crushed in middle age and elderly voters.
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 08:10:29 am
沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 50% of the vote counted

Joint Opposition candidate   52%
LDP                                   48%

The count has a rural bias so far so the Opposition victory will be greater than this.  Still, like I suspected the exit poll overestimated the scale of LDP defeat.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 08:23:01 am
沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 67% of the vote counted

Joint Opposition candidate   52.7%
LDP                                   47.3%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 08:34:22 am
沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 87% of the vote counted

Joint Opposition candidate   55.6%
LDP                                   44.4%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 08:37:41 am
大阪(Osaka) 12th with 24% of the vote counted

JRP                40.2
LDP                29.5
ex-DPJ ex-HP  20.1 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     10.1


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 08:46:14 am
大阪(Osaka) 12th with 42% of the vote counted

JRP                34.5
LDP                28.3
ex-DPJ ex-HP  23.0 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     14.3


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 08:51:45 am
沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 97% of the vote counted (I think it will be pretty much this) (diff on 2017 result)

Joint Opposition candidate   56.2% (-1.7%)
LDP                                   43.8% (+3.5%)

LDP picking up the 2017 HRP vote.  The candidate quality balance is clearly  lean toward LDP in this by-election relative to 2017 and it shows.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 09:12:21 am
大阪(Osaka) 12th with 50% of the vote counted

JRP                37.2%
LDP                29.8%
ex-DPJ ex-HP  20.9% (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     12.1%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 09:17:24 am
大阪(Osaka) 12th with 71% of the vote counted

JRP                41.9%
LDP                29.7%
ex-DPJ ex-HP  17.7% (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     10.7%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 09:44:20 am
大阪(Osaka) 12th with 95% of the vote counted

JRP                39.2%
LDP                30.7%
ex-DPJ ex-HP  21.0% (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP       9.1%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 10:04:48 am
沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd all done (diff on 2017 result)

Joint Opposition candidate   56.5% (-1.4%)
LDP                                   43.5% (+3.2%)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 10:11:53 am
大阪(Osaka) 12th unofficially done (diff vs 2017)

JRP                38.5% (-2.1%)
LDP                30.0% (-15.0%)
ex-DPJ ex-HP  22.6% (NA) (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP       8.9% (-5.5%)

There was a large shift from LDP to JRP.  HP (now de facto DPP) backed JRP in 2017 so most of that support went to ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate while CDP backed JCP in 2017 where a lot of it went to the ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate.

We can also look at these results relative to 2014 when the ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate actually ran as the DPJ candidate.

JRP                38.5% (+14.3%)
LDP                30.0% (-10.0%)
ex-DPJ ex-HP  22.6% (-2.6%) (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP       8.9% (-1.7%)

So relative to 2014 which was peak JCP anyway there was a falloff in JCP support but also some shift of the old DPJ base over to JRP.  Other than these smaller shifts the LDP->JRP shift is dramatic and clear.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 10:13:31 am
My prediction for 大阪(Osaka) 12th

JRP                39
LDP                27
ex-DPJ ex-HP  25 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9

was mostly on the mark for JRP and JCP.  I underestimated LDP by a couple of percentage points relative to the ex-DPJ ex-HP independent. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 24, 2019, 08:35:14 am
With defeat in 2 lower house by-elections there are noises within the LDP and KP to once again delay the planned sales tax increase.  Abe drew a line in the sand last year saying that there will be no delay unless there is a financial crisis like Lehman 2008 but there will be pressure from within the LDP to do so to avoid a possible recession in 2020 and also to pump up LDP-KP prospects in the upcoming Upper House elections.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 24, 2019, 09:01:13 am
Sankei Shimbun magazine political analyst 松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru) came out with his Upper House and Lower House projections.  As usual they are pretty negative for LDP.  At this stage of the election cycle all projections will be negative for LDP to help sell magazines (since everyone expects LDP to do well a negative projection adds to the shock value and make people want to buy the magazine)

Anyway for Upper House he has it at
       District     PR        Total
LDP     35        17         52 (-14)
KP        6          7         13 (+2)
HP        1          0          1  (-2)
JRP       3          5          8 (+2)
DPP      4          3          7  (-1)
CDP    18        12         30(+22)
LP         0         0           0 (-1)
SDP      0          1          1 (--)
JCP      2          5           7 (-1)
OPPN   5          0           5        (CDP-DPP-SDP-LP-JCP joint opposition candidates)

()


Which comes out to

LDP+           65
Center-Left   43
Third Pole      9
JCP               7

This reflects a clear surge of JRP since their Osaka based victories in prefecture and by-elections.  Most CW projections has LDP+ at around 72 so clearly this projection is pretty negative on LDP.

For Lower House he has it at

           District     PR      Total
LDP       185         62      247  (-36)
KP            4!!       22        26  (-3)
HP            0           0          0  (-2)
JRP          14        13         27 (+15)
DPP         15         15        30 (-7)
CDP         64        53       117 (+62)
LP             1          0          1 (-1)
SDP          1          1          2 (--)
JCP           1         11        12(--)
OPPN        7                      7

Main shocks are that KP would only 4 district seats.  KP usually contest 9 seats and wins all 9.  They unexpectedly lost 1 out of 9 in 2017.  I guess this means that JRP will go all out to take on KP and most likely defeat KP in a bunch of seats in  大阪(Osaka).  

I am surprised he has JCP winning 1 district seat.  I suspect with JRP openly joining forces with LDP-KP in  沖縄(Okinawa) that in 沖縄(Okinawa) 1st district LDP-KP-JRP grand alliance should defeat JCP.  

Of course JRP winning 14 district seats is a real surge of JRP in  大阪(Osaka).  Even at the peak of JRP fortunes in 2012 JRP only won 12 seats in  大阪(Osaka).   I guess this time they will also target KP seats which will also yield a few extra victories.

I genially do not buy the district seats of DPP 15 and CDP 64.  If you go seat by seat it is clear that a lot of viable opposition candidates are members of DPP.  I am pretty sure even if the Opposition does at well as he suggests at the district level it will be something like DPP 30 CDP 50 unless there are more DPP->CDP defections between now and the election.

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 26, 2019, 06:44:43 am
LP formally merges into DPP.  The only real impact would be on the PR section of the Upper House election.  LP has around at 1.5%-2% vote share and in a election where the de facto threshold is around 1.7% and the seat allocation is by d'hondt method this would mean that whereas the DPP was looking at 2-3 seats on the PR section in the Upper House election now they are more likely to be looking at 3-4 seats assuming the LP vote transfer over.  I suspect some of the LP PR vote will go to CDP and SDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 26, 2019, 01:26:17 pm
Even as a Center-Left party (LP) merge into DPP another one appears.  It is 令和新選組 or Reiwa Shinsengumi which I guess I will call RS for now until, if ever, they come up with an official English name.  Reiwa or 令和 is the name of the new Imperial Era and Shinsengumi is the name of a military task for in the Tokugawa shogunate period.  One way to translate Shinsengumi  would be "elite task force." 

Anyway this party is formed by 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) who was elected in 2013 Upper House election in the Tokyo district as an anti-nuclear extreme Left candidate.  He joined PLP which became LP in 2014 as joint leaders of a the united party with Ozawa.  Now that Ozawa has merged LP into DPP  山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) does not want to join the Centrist DPP and prefers to form his own party of the Left.  I think RS might pull in 0.5% to 1.0% of the PR vote if he chooses to contest in the PR race but it seems RS is mostly about 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) reelection in the Tokyo district which so far he seems favored to finish in the top 6 and win re-election.

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: Simfan34 on April 29, 2019, 08:25:07 am
What is "JRP"? Is it a Resurrection of the old Japan Restoration Party?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 29, 2019, 09:53:09 am
What is "JRP"? Is it a Resurrection of the old Japan Restoration Party?

Old Japan Restoration Party. 

JRP was formed in 2012.  In 2014 it merged with YP splinter UP to form JIP with the anti-merger group forming FPG.  In 2015 the anti-DPJ and pro-Hashimoto group which is most of the old Osaka part of JRP split from JIP to form ORA.  JIP then merged with DPJ to form DP in 2016.  In 2016 ORA renamed itself back to JRP.  FPG in the meantime renamed itself PJK and in 2018 merged with LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: Conservatopia on April 30, 2019, 05:33:15 am
What is "JRP"? Is it a Resurrection of the old Japan Restoration Party?

Old Japan Restoration Party. 

JRP was formed in 2012.  In 2014 it merged with YP splinter UP to form JIP with the anti-merger group forming FPG.  In 2015 the anti-DPJ and pro-Hashimoto group which is most of the old Osaka part of JRP split from JIP to form ORA.  JIP then merged with DPJ to form DP in 2016.  In 2016 ORA renamed itself back to JRP.  FPG in the meantime renamed itself PJK and in 2018 merged with LDP.

Are the JRP the national affiliate of One Osaka then?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on April 30, 2019, 07:03:49 am
Are the JRP the national affiliate of One Osaka then?

Pretty much.  In fact JRP is mostly an 大阪(Osaka) party and somewhat a 近畿(Kinki) regional party.  If you look at the 2017 lower house PR vote share you get for JRP

大阪(Osaka):                26.86%
Non-Osaka 近畿(Kinki): 12.28%
Rest of Japan:               3.89%

After the most recent JRP surge in 大阪(Osaka) governor and prefecture elections I think JRP support has risen in 大阪(Osaka) ans perhaps rest of 近畿(Kinki) but most likely nowhere else.

The upcoming Upper House race in 大阪(Osaka) will be interesting.  It is a 4- member district.  You would have expected LDP and KP to win one each along with one for JRP.  The last seat was going to be a 3 way battle between JRP CDP and JCP with it a tossup between JRP and CDP.   Given the most recent JRP surge one would expect that JRP wins two seats with now LDP CDP and JCP fighting for the last seat.  Depending on how much LDP support in 大阪(Osaka) has gone over to JRP the LDP could end up losing its seat in 大阪(Osaka) which would be a shock.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 03, 2019, 04:44:43 am
Ashai poll on PR vote for Upper Hose elections in July (diff from April poll)

LDP    43 (+4)
KP        5(--)
JRP       6(-1)
HP         1(+1)
DPP       3(+1)
CDP    17(+4)
SDP      2(+1)
JCP       5(-1)

The two main parties (LDP and CDP) make gains as the election gets closer


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 04, 2019, 07:14:50 am
The media is coming around to define the 2019 Upper House election as an battle by the pro-Constitutional revision bloc (LDP KP JRP HP and various Third Pole forces) to retain their 2/3 majority
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 04, 2019, 11:10:26 am
As of now, unlike 2016, the opposition parties (CDP DPP SDP) are having a hard time working with the JCP to work out alliances in various 1- member districts.   In several battleground 1- member districts the JCP still have candidates in the mix that have not been convinced to withdraw.  They are:

青森(Aomori) - I think the LDP will win one way or another
宮城(Miyagi) - Quite winnable CDP is the JCP withdraws
秋田(Akita) - I think the LDP will win one way or another
山形(Yamagata) - CDP-DPP-SDP jointly backed independent could win if JCP withdraws
福島(Fukushima)  - CDP-DPP-SDP jointly backed independent could win if JCP withdraws 
栃木(Tochigi)  - I think the LDP will win one way or another
山梨(Yamanashi) - LDP have edge and for sure not winnable for CDP if JCP does not withdraw
長野(Nagano) - DPP has the upper hand over LDP even if JCP stays in the mix but clearly DPP prefer JCP to withdraw
三重(Mie)  - CDP-DPP-SDP jointly backed independent could win if JCP withdraws
滋賀(Shiga) - LDP have edge and for sure not winnable for CDP-DPP-SDP backed independent if JCP does not withdraw
 
On the other hand in battlegrounds like 岩手(Iwate), 新潟(Niigata), 愛媛(Ehime), 大分(Ōita), 沖縄(Okinawa) JCP have withdrawn and have given the non-JCP opposition there a chance to defeat LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 07:27:17 am
Abe Cabinet Approval rating curve stays high
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LDP support (pink) stays steady at a high rate
()

CDP support (blue) continues to fall while JPR support (Green) continues to rise
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 06:56:25 am
Significant development.   JCP and the non-JCP Center-Left oppositio pretty much stitched up alliances in almost all 1- member districts.  I found it hard to believe this was possible since the anti-JCP Rengo union federation has a lot of sway over DPP and I though would come up with conditions that are impossible for JCP to meet.  But it seems they came up with a grand alliance to take on LDP.

So the joint opposition candidates for each 1- member seat will be

青森(Aomori) - CDP - lean LDP
岩手(Iwate) - Opposition backed independent with LP background - Lean Opposition
宮城(Miyagi) - CDP - tossup/lean LDP
秋田(Akita) - pro-CDP ndependent  - lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - pro-DPP independent - tossup/Lean opposition
福島(Fukushima) - pro-DPP independent - tossup/Lean opposition
栃木(Tochigi) - CDP - Solid LDP
群馬(Gunma) - CDP - Lean LDP (only because it is open seat or else it would be Solid LDP)
山梨(Yamanashi) - CDP - tossup/lean LDP
新潟(Niigata) - pro-CDP independent - tossup/lean opposition
富山(Toyama) - talks in progress with JCP SDP and DPP all wanting to run  - Solid LDP  either way
石川(Ishikawa) - DPP - Solid LDP
福井(Fukui) - JCP - Solid LDP
長野(Nagano) - DPP - Solid Opposition
岐阜(Gifu) - CDP - Lean LDP
三重(Mie) - pro-CDP local opposition party running as independent - lean Opposition  
滋賀(Shiga) - pro-DPP ex-governor running as independent - tossup/lean LDP
奈良(Nara) - pro-DPP/Rengo independent -  solid LDP
和歌山(Wakayama) - pro-DPP independent - solid LDP
鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) - JCP - Solid LDP
岡山(Okayama) - CDP - Solid LDP
山口(Yamaguchi) - DPP - Solid LDP
徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) - JCP - Solid LDP
香川(Kagawa) - pro-DPP independent -Solid LDP
愛媛(Ehime) - ex-DPJ MP running as independent - tossup/lean LDP
佐賀(Saga) - JCP - Solid LDP
長崎(Nagasaki) - DPP - Solid LDP
熊本(Kumamoto) - pro-DPP/Rengo independent - Solid LDP
大分(Ōita) - pro-DPP independent  - tossup/lean LDP
宮崎(Miyazaki) - no opposition candidate yet - Solid LDP one way or another
鹿児島(Kagoshima) - talks in progress with JCP SDP and DPP all wanting to run - LDP rebel might jump in but at worst lean LDP and most likely solid LDP
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP running as independent - Solid Opposition

So other than  富山(Toyama), 宮崎(Miyazaki) and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) where the LDP is going to win anyway the Center-Left Opposition and JCP came up with pre-election adjustments everywhere else in 1- member districts.  This election in July will be somewhat competitive now.  

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PR candidate list
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 08:44:43 am
For the multi member districts the LDP is doing a pretty good job at "cleaning up" the battle field for the Center-Right bloc relative to the Center-Left bloc.

1) In 愛知(Aichi) LDP got an ex-YP incumbent that was going to run and split the Right vote to stand down promising her that she would be nominated by the LDP in the next Lower House election
2) In 神奈川(Kanagawa) LDP is working with the ex-YP but now HP incumbent to figure out a way for him (who is also the head of the rump HP) to step aside to split the Right vote.
3) In 東京(Tokyo) it seems to be chaos on the Left.  In the 6 seats it is "normal" for the Center-Right bloc to win 3 seats and Center-Left bloc to win 3.  The LDP and KP will have 3 candidates (2 LDP 1 KP) but on the Left there are already 5 candidates (2 CDP 1 JCP 1 SDP 1 RS) plus DPP will most likely nominate another candidate.  If the LDP sees that these up to 6 Center-Left candidates will split the Center-Left vote then the LDP or JRP might nominate a candidate to try to win a 4th seat.
4) In 大阪(Osaka) the battle is for the Right bloc to sweep all 4.  In 2016 the DP and JCP split what is left of the Center-Left vote for LDP KP and 2 JRP candidate to win the 4 seats up for grabs.  The CDP surge means that this time CDP should win a seat at the expense of one of the JRP candidates.  But with the recent JRP surge that might not be true.  Worse, in addition to JCP is running, of course, DPP also nominated a candidate so the Center-Left might be shut out again in 2019 just like 2016.
5) In 2- member 広島(Hiroshima) LDP is feeling so strong that they nominated 2 candidates to try to win both with the Center-Left vote split between the DPP and JCP.  At least CDP dropped out to give the DPP candidate a chance.  Most likely DPP will pull this one out.
6) In 2 member districts of 京都(Kyoto)) 茨城(Ibaraki) and 静岡(Shizuoka) the CDP and DPP failed to work out deals and will be running separately and giving the JCP a chance to win the second seat (first seat being won by LDP of course.)  I guess since CDP DPP and JCP all now feel that the LDP is the main enemy this is not see as a big deal and is viewed as a friendly fight for all 3 parties to try to win the second seat.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 11:34:46 am
What is key about the Center-Left opposition alliance for 1- member districts is that CDP-DPP-SDP already conceded 4 districts to JCP (福井(Fukui), 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane), 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi), 佐賀(Saga)) with the prospect of a couple more (富山(Toyama) or 宮崎(Miyazaki) or 鹿児島(Kagoshima although 鹿児島(Kagoshima) is unlikely as the LDP rebel makes this seat winnable for the Opposition and CDP-DPP-SDP will not blow it by giving it to JCP.)

Back in 2016 JCP was only assigned one seat (香川(Kagawa).)  This development bode fairly well for the next lower house election for Center-Left Opposition cooperation with JCP.  By giving a bunch of not winnable seat to JCP the Center-Left Opposition is showing that it is getting the killer instinct that the LDP always has to do whatever that has to be done to win.  This was always an easy choice since JCP knows that it does not chance of winning any 1-on-1 race with LDP so the JCP is willing to take a bunch of unwinnable seats.  JCP is toxic brand outside its core supporters also means that there is fairly low risk that the CDP-DPP base would migrate to JCP in those seats ceded to JCP.  It was always vanity and pride that got in the way of giving a bunch of winnable seats to JCP to get JCP support in critical swing districts against the LDP.  Besides, the JCP is not really winning to win.  JCP is more like an NGO than a political party that just wants publicity for its ideas versus actually winning political power.  If winning was the JCP's goal they would have changed their name decades ago.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 07:52:31 am
Just like 2016, LDP seems to be floating the idea that they might dissolve the lower house and hold double elections in July.  Most likely a ploy to force the opposition to hold back resources for the Upper House elections in case they are needed to support Lower House election candidates.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 25, 2019, 08:14:24 am
So with Center-Left Opposition and JCP forming alliances in all the battleground 1- member districts the medium case for the 2019 July Upper House election would be for the Constitutional Revision bloc to lose its 2/3 majority and with it Abe's goals of Constitutional revision.   I think now we can get a real sense of what Abe's true priorities are.   If he does value Constitutional revision above else he should actually go ahead and call a Lower House election and have a double election as a referendum on Constitutional revision. If there is a pro-LDP wave from this issue this should be enough for the pro-Constitutional revision forces to win 2/3 in both houses.  If not then Abe's would lose seats in the Lower House and his leadership stature diminished.  The window is closing fast for Abe to do this.   


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: urutzizu on May 25, 2019, 10:42:39 am
So with Center-Left Opposition and JCP forming alliances in all the battleground 1- member districts the medium case for the 2019 July Upper House election would be for the Constitutional Revision bloc to lose its 2/3 majority and with it Abe's goals of Constitutional revision.   I think now we can get a real sense of what Abe's true priorities are.   If he does value Constitutional revision above else he should actually go ahead and call a Lower House election and have a double election as a referendum on Constitutional revision. If there is a pro-LDP wave from this issue this should be enough for the pro-Constitutional revision forces to win 2/3 in both houses.  If not then Abe's would lose seats in the Lower House and his leadership stature diminished.  The window is closing fast for Abe to do this.   

I think Abe wants the Issue more than Constitutional revision itself. A revision would be solely symbolic in nature anyway.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 27, 2019, 02:58:44 pm
Now that all Center-Left-JCP alliances in the 1- member districts are mostly firmed up I think I can go ahead with a projection.  Brackets in multi-member districts are the runner up

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (JCP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             OPPN (competitive)  
宮城   Miyagi               1            LDP  (competitive)    
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (competitive)                      
福島   Fukushima       1             OPPN (competitive)                      
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP CDP (JCP)                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP (competitive)                                
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP KP CDP JCP (DPP)                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP (JCP)                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP CDP JCP (HP)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP      
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP CDP KP LDP JCP RS (JRP)    
新潟   Niigata             1            OPPN (competitive)            
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP (competitive)                                
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP  (JCP)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP CPP DDP (JCP)                
三重   Mie                   1             OPPN (competitive)                                
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP  (competitive)  
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (JCP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP JRP KP JRP (CDP)            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP CDP (JRP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPP (LDP)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP (competitive)                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP (JCP)                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1            OPPN (competitive)            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN    

Unknowns are

1) In 北海道(Hokkaido) CDP might nominate a second candidate which might change the dynamics of the race.
2) In 神奈川(Kanagawa), LDP might get the HP incumbent MP to drop out.  
3) HP might run on a joint PR slate with JRP
4) In 大阪(Osaka) the identity of the second JRP candidate is not know so the dynamics of the race might change.
5) In  茨城(Ibaraki), it is not clear of DPP will nominate a candidate.  Also the CDP incumbent there which recently defected from DPP was not nominated by CDP.  He might end up running as an independent or defect back to DPP and run.
6) In 鹿児島(Kagoshima) a LDP rebel is running while in the opposition camp DPP SDP and JCP all want to run.  It is possible SDP candidate becomes the joint opposition candidate or even the opposition back the LDP rebel which could change the dynamics of the race.
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 24-8
                                                            
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                18                    34.6%               40                     58
KP                   7                     13.4%                7                     14
HP                   0                      1.2%                0                       0
JRP                  4                      7.7%                2                       6
HRP                 0                      0.5%                0                       0
NPB                 0                      1.0%                0                       0
DPP                  3                      5.8%                4                      7
CDP                12                    24.5%              10                    22
SDP                 1                       1.9%               0                       1
RS                   0                      1.2%                1                       1
JCP                  5                      9.6%               3                        8
OPPN                                                              7                       7

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          72
Center-Left    38
Third Pole       6
JCP                8

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections

LDP-KP        143
Center-Left    75
Third Pole      13
JCP               14

The Center-Left + JCP would form 36.33% of the 245 member chamber which would be able to block a Constitutional revision.  

It would take a LDP wave for the Center-Left + JCP bloc to lose 8 seats off my current projection for the Center-Left Bloc + JCP to lose a blocking 1/3 majority.  In practice the margin of error is a bit lower then that.   I am sure if the Center-Left + JCP is only a couple of seats above 1/3 LDP/Abe could be able to get a couple of defectors from the Center-Left camp to back Constitutional revision.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 29, 2019, 07:31:25 am
In 富山(Toyama) and 佐賀(Saga) the Center-Left Opposition and JCP came to an agreement on a common candidate with both going to the DPP.  Both are going to be won by LDP one way or another.
 That just leaves  宮崎(Miyazaki) where the Grand Alliance will have to find a candidate and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) where right now DPP SDP and JCP all have a candidate plus a LDP rebel.  The Grand Alliance have to decided on going with the SDP candidate (most likely) or even backing the LDP rebel in this LDP stronghold.

In many ways this current configuration of Opposition formation is the best I have seen so far.  First they arranged for LP to merge into DPP so the LP PR vote are not wasted.  The Center-Left Opposition split into an idealist Center-Left Opposition (CDP) and pragmatic Centrist Opposition (DPP) so both types of Opposition voters have something to vote for on the PR slate and have a reason to come out.  Also CDP DPP SDP and JCP from a grand alliance in 1- member seats and run candidates from the party that is most likely to appeal to the local electorate.  As mentioned before this alliance is smart enough to give JCP 3 1- member seats that cannot be won anyway so JCP gets publicly which is what it wants out of this.  Even in 2- member district 広島(Hiroshima) where LDP choose to nominate 2 candidates to try to take advantage of the fact that both CDP and DPP have a candidates each the CDP candidate dropped out and the DPP candidate is running as an independent with CDP and DPP support to counter the LDP plans.  The only Opposition coordination failure is in 大阪(Osaka) where there is a real chance that LDP-KP and JRP will win 2 seats each locking out of the Center-Left Opposition and JCP given the JRP surge recently yet CDP DPP and JCP all insist on running a candidate.  DPP is the most foolish here as its candidate has no chance and will most likely cost CDP a chance at winning here.

If you look at the 1- member districts that the Center-Left-JCP alliance won in 2016 are:

青森(Aomori) - Very likely LDP win.  This prefecture trended toward LDP on the 2017 PR vote
岩手(Iwate) - Very likely Opposition win
宮城(Miyagi) - tossup  
山形(Yamagata) - tossup
福島(Fukushima) - tossup
山梨(Yamanashi) - Very likely LDP win.  LDP seems to be surging here recently
新潟(Niigata) - tossup
長野(Nagano) - Very likely Opposition win
三重(Mie) - Very likely Opposition win
大分(Ōita) - tossup
沖縄(Okinawa) -Very likely Opposition win

So relative to 2016 results in 1- member districts the LDP will flip at least 2 and most likely 3-4 seats with 宮城(Miyagi) most likely to flip followed by 大分(Ōita)

On the flip side some 1- member seats that the LDP won in 2016 are now tossups or at least competitive  

栃木(Tochigi) - this was not competitive in 2016 but will be this time around.  Depends on how the old YP vote swings.  This prefecture tended away from LDP in 2017 on the PR vote
岐阜(Gifu) - this was not competitive in 2016 but will be this time around.  This prefecture trended away from the LDP in 2017 on the PR vote.
滋賀(Shiga) - was suppose to be competitive in 2016 but the DP incumbent was blown out as the JRP vote swung toward LDP.  This time a popular ex-governor is running as a pro-DPP incumbent so this race should be competitive
愛媛(Ehime) - was not suppose to be competitive in 2016 but an ex-DPJ MP ran and nearly won a upset in a close race.  The same ex-DPJ MP is running again as a joint opposition candidate and the seat is an open seat as the LDP incumbent is retiring.

The Opposition most likely will be able to pull out 1 out of this 4 with  愛媛(Ehime) being the most likely followed by 滋賀(Shiga).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 29, 2019, 07:39:20 am
There continues to be all sorts of double talk from LDP on the chances of a double election in the summer.  Most likely it will not take place.  The current chatter is that the consumption tax is set to go up in October and just like 2014 it will most likely trigger an economic slowdown so Abe wants an general election now to get it out of the way instead of having to hold it in 2020 or 2021 after the expected economic slump takes place.   I still think this is not likely and a ruse to confuse the opposition so they cannot adequately prepare for the Upper House elections.

Still with the recent Center-Left JCP alliance it is expected that in a general election there will be a joint opposition candidate in most if not all of the districts to take on LDP 1-on-1 (and 3 way in 大阪   (Osaka) since we have JRP there.)  I have been working on since last year the likely joint opposition candidate per district.  There seems to be similar efforts out there.   This is one of them
   
Blue - CDP
Light Blue - pro-CDP independent
Orange - CDP
Yellow - pro-CDP independent
Red - JCP
Purple - SDP
Grey - independent without clear CDP or DPP lean 
White - TBD
()

My list have a bunch of them filled in but this list is pretty much a subset of my list.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 29, 2019, 08:56:25 am
Poll for Upper House district 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) on Abe Constitution Revision has it
For 23.4 Opposed 61.2.  As a combined district has a slight anti-LDP lean due to the strength of the JCP in 高知(Kōchi).  LDP incumbent from 高知(Kōchi) will win this seat with ease but this poll indicates that LDP will lose votes here and potentially elsewhere if they make Constitutional revision a major campaign theme.

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 29, 2019, 10:24:27 am
塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) who is an Upper House MP from 新潟(Niigata) had to resign as land minister after he said he made a special decision to restart a road project for the constituencies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso to please them in a speech at a campaign rally.

This comes at a bad time right before the Unified Local election this weekend.  Also 塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) himself is up for re-election in July in a swing district.  His seat was seen as a tossup JCP and DPP already withdrew their candidate to back a CDP candidate.  Now it seems likely LDP will lose this seat in July.  Getting a new LDP candidate in there could turn things around but I suspect the impact will be large enough to cost LDP this seat.


It seems that LDP has renominated 塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō).  I guess the are gambling that all politics are local and his local connections could overcome pass press over his comments a few weeks ago.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 30, 2019, 06:42:37 am
The CDP candidate for 静岡(Shizuoka) and a virtual shoe in to win 1 of the 2 seats (other going to LDP) is 德川家廣(Tokugawa Iehiro) who is the 19th generation decedent of Tokugawa Ieyasu founder of the Tokugawa shogunate
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 30, 2019, 08:11:56 am
With all the talk of a double election it seems the Center-Left opposition and JCP also have come to an agreement that in an event of a lower house election they will created a Grand alliance just like for the 1- member districts for the Upper House and present one common candidate to take on LDP-KP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 31, 2019, 09:19:44 am
The dissolution of the rump HP continues.  HP leader 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) who was from the DPJ Right, ex-Governor of 神奈川(Kanagawa) and elected in the 神奈川(Kanagawa) 4- member district in 2013 on the YP ticket has resigned from HP and joined JRP.  He did so as that is the only way he would have a chance at re-election.  Now HP will have no candidates in the district section.  中山 成彬(Nakayama Nariaki) a long time politicans of the LDP extreme Right took over as HP leader.  I am not even sure HP will go ahead with running a list in the 2019 Upper House election.  Most likely the rump HP will merge with LDP or JRP.

As for 4- seat 神奈川(Kanagawa) district it will be LDP KP JRP CDP DPP JCP each running a candidate each with SDP potentially running.  LDP KP and CDP all seem certain to win a seat each with JRP and JCP fighting for the last seat.  Right now it is a tossup but if SDP gets into the race then JRP's 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) should have the edge.  DPP's candidate and potentially SDP are cutting into the Center-Left-JCP vote base and giving the JRP a chance. 
 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 31, 2019, 09:35:58 am
Controversial TV host 長谷川豊 (Yutaka Hasegawa) who was on the JRP PR list and having a track record of being politically incorrect was removed from the JRP PR list for promoting discrimination against Burakumin who are the Japanese version of untouchables. 

() 

It is pretty common practice in more traditional Japanese families to use private eyes to research the fiance of their children to make sure they are not from Korean or Burakumin backgrounds.  There is an entire industry of private eyes firms in Japan that cater to this demand.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on May 31, 2019, 08:59:10 pm
Noted political analyst 三浦博史 (Miura Hiroshi) came out with his current projection

            District    PR    Total
LDP           37      18      55
KP              7        7      14
CDP          11      11      22
DPP            5        3        8
JCP            2        5        7
JRP            2        5        7
HP             1        0        0
SDP           0        1        0
OPPN        9                   9

()

With the LDP-KP + JRP losing the 2/3 Constitutional majority

Of course at this stage of the election campaign most projections tend to underestimate LDP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on June 02, 2019, 01:09:55 pm
If seems 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) is reactivating YP.  YP which Watanabe founded back in 2009 as a LDP splinter folded in 2014 right before the 2014 Lower House elections due to fundamental disagreements weather the party should take a pro-LDP line (Watanabe) or take an anti-LDP line 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō).  Ironically Asao, who has a DPJ background, have since joined LDP while Watanabe  who was defeated for re-election in 2014 got elected on the JRP PR slate in the 2016 Upper House elections.  Watanabe has since left the JRP has looks like has reactivated YP.  It seems the YP will run a PR slate which I assume will eat into the LDP and JRP vote.  Also what is key is will YP run a candidate in Watanabe 栃木(Tochigi) which could cut into the LDP vote.
()
 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July)
Post by: jaichind on June 03, 2019, 04:10:18 pm
"History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce" - Karl Marx

These are my thoughts when I read that 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) was going to reactivate YP.  When YP was formed in 2009 I was one of the first to want to support it.  YP gave people like me on the nationalist neoliberal Right something to support after having to back the LDP with all their clientelist  baggage over the years.  In the end Watanabe blew it by getting himself trapped in various funding scandals which eventually led up to the breakup and dissolution of YP in 2014.   JRP is a poor replacement for YP given its sectional appeal as it is clear JRP is more about Osaka than any real commitment to any real neoliberal agenda.  This current incantation of YP is a joke compared to the potential of YP in 2009 and seems to me just another scheme for  Watanabe  to enhance his political bargaining chips to make way for his eventual rejoining of the LDP as there are some LDP factions in 栃木(Tochigi) that oppose Watanabe rejoining LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 04, 2019, 05:37:52 pm
Upper house elections schedule for 7/21


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 05, 2019, 10:52:23 am
There is an old Arab Bedouin saying: I, against my brothers. I and my brothers against my cousins. I and my brothers and my cousins against the world. "

This describes the relationships of the opposition parties. 

In 1- member seats  it sis CDP-DPP alliiance with JCP to take on LDP
In 2- member seats it is CDP-DPP alliance to keep JCP out and/or to stop LDP to win both seats  like in (広島) Hiroshima
In some 3- member seats it is CDP-DPP alliance to keep out JCP from the 3rd seat and in others it is a 3 way battle between CDP DPP and JCP for the 3rd seats
In 4- and 6- member districts is it a free for all between CDP DPP and JCP

CDP and DPP are brothers since both are really factions of the old DPJ and JCP I guess is a cousin with the LDP the rest of the world.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 05, 2019, 11:37:23 am
In 3- member district 北海道(Hokkaido) it seems CDP will not nominate a second candidate.  This will leave 2 LDP candidates, 1 CDP, 1 DPP and 1 JCP candidate in the field.  Due to retirements none of the candidates are incumbents.  The LDP clearly have an edge here to win 2 out of 3 seats.  One of the LDP candidates is a former popular governor while the DPP candidate which would be expected to win the 2nd seat for the Opposition is fairly lackluster.  Further more it seems neither NPD nor JRP will run which will avoid the splitting of the LDP-KP vote while JCP will be running to split the anti-LDP vote.

The opposition has to hope for a poor distribution of the LDP-KP vote between the 2 LDP candidates, some KP vote defection to the Opposition, some tactical voting by the JCP PR vote for CDP and DPP, and a very efficient distribution of the vote between the CDP and DPP candidate.   It is unlikely that all these stars will be aligned so LDP should win 2 out of 3 seats.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 05, 2019, 12:05:30 pm
As mentioned before, this year in 広島(Hiroshima) the LDP is going to try something that it used to try all the time, and succeeded once in awhile, in the pre-1993 era: Win both seats of a 2- member district.  The last time any party really tried this was back in 2010 when Ozawa, assuming a large DPJ vote, tried to do this in many 2- member districts which utterly failed due to the surprising fall of the DPJ vote relative to 2009.

The LDP logic is if you look at the 2013 and 2016 results for 広島(Hiroshima), they are

2013
LDP    46.3%  elected
DPJ    17.2%  elected
JRP     15.4%
PLP     12.2%
JCP      7.6%
HRP     1.3%

2016
LDP    49.8%
DP      23.1%
ORA   13.8%
JCP      7.7%
PJK      2.5%
HRP     1.6%
Left     1.5%

PJK has since merged into LDP.  This time around JRP will not run a candidate so the way the LDP figures it if LDP runs 2 candidates, with CDP and DPP running a candidate each as well as JCP then the LDP should be able to win both seats since LDP should be able to pick up most of the JRP vote on the assumption that the Southern JRP vote leans LDP and the Northern JRP vote leans Opposition.  Of course CDP and DPP countered by the DPP candidate drooping out and the CDP candidate running as an independent with joint support from CDP-DPP.  So most likely LDP will fail in its plan to win both seats.

The last time any party win both seats in a 2- member district was in 1992  when LDP pulled it off in 福島(Fukushima) when it was

LDP         29.6%
LDP         29.2%
Rengo      27.3% (Rengo labor union united front of all non-JDP anti-LDP opposition parties)
JSP rebel   7.4%
JCP           6.5%

which was only achieved because of very effective vote allocation between the two LDP candidates and the JSP rebel that split the non-JCP opposition vote


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 05, 2019, 12:17:00 pm
Opposition parties submit bill to legalize same-sex marriage in Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/04/national/politics-diplomacy/opposition-parties-submit-bill-legalize-sex-marriage-japan/#.XPf3uBZKguU

It seems CDP-SDP-JCP (note: does not include DPP) submitted a bill to legalize gay marriage.  This will go nowhere of course but this seems like a scheme by the CDP and JCP to push up turnout among their supporters.  They figure any votes lost by this maneuver were lost and are going to turn out in the July 21st election to vote LDP anyway.   With LDP and Abe approval fairly high compared to last year it seems to counter the LDP advantage in a low turnout election the opposition, especially the CDP needs to push up turnout.   



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 05, 2019, 12:23:56 pm
In a blow and embarrassment to the JRP the 丸山穂高(Maruyama Hodaka) scandal continues to drag on.   Maruyama is the JRP winner of the 大阪(Osaka) 19th district seat 3 elections in a row.  In May he visited one of the four four Russian-held islands off Hokkaido that Japan claims.  It seems he got drunk and started say to the local Japanese leader that "War between Japan and Russia is the only way to resolve the dispute over these island" and "Are there women?" and "I want to go out to grope breasts."

Once these comments made its way to the media there has been an uproar with Maruyama having to resign from JRP and now under pressure to resign his seat.  There will be a Lower House censure of Maruyama which is not legally binding for him to resign his seat.  JRP will not nominate him next election for sure but it seems the damage to the JRP is already done.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: The scissors of false economy on June 06, 2019, 10:37:09 am
Opposition parties submit bill to legalize same-sex marriage in Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/04/national/politics-diplomacy/opposition-parties-submit-bill-legalize-sex-marriage-japan/#.XPf3uBZKguU

It seems CDP-SDP-JCP (note: does not include DPP) submitted a bill to legalize gay marriage.  This will go nowhere of course but this seems like a scheme by the CDP and JCP to push up turnout among their supporters.  They figure any votes lost by this maneuver were lost and are going to turn out in the July 21st election to vote LDP anyway.   With LDP and Abe approval fairly high compared to last year it seems to counter the LDP advantage in a low turnout election the opposition, especially the CDP needs to push up turnout.   

This seems like a potentially good tactic to me. Japan's traditional homophobia isn't quite what it used to be and my impression is that Abenomics is still distinct enough from neoliberal orthodoxy that it's probably easier for the opposition to draw a clear distinction on this sort of thing than on the economy.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 07, 2019, 04:50:02 am
In 宮崎(Miyazaki) the Center-Left Opposition and JCP agreed to support a CDP candidate and in 鹿児島(Kagoshima) the Center-Left Opposition and JCP agreed to support a DPP candidate.   So now in all 32 1- member districts the Center Opposition-JCP have one candidate to take on LDP just like in 2016.



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 08, 2019, 05:22:08 am
United front candidates of Center-Left Opposition and JCP.
In 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) and 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) the JCP candidates will run as independents

Deep Blue - CDP
Light Blue - CDP running as Independent
Orange - DPP
Light Orange - DPP running as Independent
Red - JCP
Light Red - JCP running as Independent
Light Green - Rengo background running as Independent
Grey - ex-DPJ or OMSP (in 沖縄(Okinawa))running as independent 
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 08, 2019, 06:38:00 am
It seems this time around the LDP will actually go through with the consumption tax hike later this year and will not be able to run on a delay in the tax hike like it did in 2016.  Despite talk there seems to be no signs of a double elections so I guess Abe is going to take his chances of doing well in the Upper House elections held by itself in the backdroup of an increase in consumption taxes and deal with a lower house elections post 2020 when there might be a economic slowdown due to the new consumption taxes.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 10, 2019, 09:35:11 am
Latest Abe approval rating curve having the Abe cabinet approval holding almost 50%
()

Party support curve have LDP and both LDP and CDP holding steady
()
()

This put the Aoki Index (sum of Cabinet approval plus LDP support) around 85 (48+37) which historically points to a significant LDP victory.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 10, 2019, 06:40:48 pm


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 10, 2019, 06:43:59 pm
Mainichi Sunday Weekly's 松田肇( Matsuda Atsushi) came out with a projection for Upper House

LDP     55
KP       14
JRP       8
DPP      5
CDP    24
SDP      1
JCP       7
Minor   1 (I have to assume RS)
OPPN   9

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          69
Center-Left    40
Third Pole        8
JCP                 7

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections (245 seats)

LDP-KP        140
Center-Left    77
Third Pole      15
JCP               13

With the Center-Left bloc + JCP at 36.7% of total seats and a blocking minority for Constitutional change.

As mentioned before at this stage in the campaign the LDP tend to be underestimated.  Still even if the Center-Left plus JCP does 8 seats worse than these projections they still would be above 33% of Upper House seats


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 11, 2019, 04:27:00 am
週刊ポスト(Weekly Post) projection for Tokyo is

LDP KP JCP RS CDP with LDP DPP CDP and JRP fighting for the 6th and last seat.
()

Which is a shock.  It was expected that the second LDP candidate should also be safely elected.  This poll indicate that LDP might miss out on the second LDP seats here.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on June 13, 2019, 07:32:48 am
Where in politics does Yamamoto Taro fall in?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 13, 2019, 08:12:22 am
Where in politics does Yamamoto Taro fall in?

Anti-nuclear power Far Left.  The thing about Tokyo voters are that they are not ideological but are attracted to candidates and parties with strong vision and conviction.  They tend to vote LDP recently mostly because they see LDP having and vision and being effective versus the DPJ.  The Koike and then CDP surge both have the same attributes. So while Tokyo leans LDP on the PR vote many of candidates in Tokyo that lean Left but project a strong vision would get the same Tokyo voter that voted LDP on the PR slate.  This time around 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) might be in trouble as some of his 2013 vote might drift to the two CDP candidates.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 13, 2019, 08:38:58 am
2017 PR vote for HRP.

HRP is the political wing of the Happy Science cult.  Its political position is fairly hawk far right and picks up disgruntled LDP voters.  The HRP PR vote is highly correlated with economic distress and decline

()



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 13, 2019, 11:18:54 am
With 神奈川(Kanagawa) Upper House incumbent and leader of rump HP 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) joining JRP to run for JRP we have yet another hope for one of the more famous party hoppers.

()

松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) started politics as PP backed independent in the late 1980s as someone with a center-right political position.  PP was a Centrist successor party of LDP splinter LL which was formed after LL merged back into LDP in 1987.  He then joined LDP splinter JRP (Japan Renewal Party) which was one of the LDP splinters of the 1992-1993 big party realignment and was elected as a lower house MP in 1993.    When JRP merged into NFP in 1994 he then became part of NFP.   After NPF broke up in 1998 he joined NPF splinter GGP which in turn merged into DPJ.   He became part of the DPJ Right.   In 2003 he left the DPJ to run for the governor 神奈川(Kanagawa) defeating the LDP in a crowed chaotic field.  He was re-elected in 2007.   During this period his politics shifted to the Far Right.   In 2011 he gave up his position of governor 神奈川(Kanagawa) and  planned to run for governor of Tokyo on the premise that  the incumbent 石原 慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō) will not run for re-election and back him.  石原 慎太郎 (Ishihara Shintarō) ran in 2011 and left 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) out in the cold.  石原 慎太郎 (Ishihara Shintarō) resigned in 2012 to join JRP and a by-election for Tokyo governor was held in 2012 where 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) ran with implicit support from  石原 慎太郎 (Ishihara Shintarō) but was defeated.    He then joined YP and ran in 2013 Upper House elections in  神奈川(Kanagawa) and was elected in a 4- member district.  In late 2014 YP broke up and he joined PFG which was founded by his new mentor 石原 慎太郎 (Ishihara Shintarō) who just retired from politics.   In 2015 he ran for the leadership for FPG and was defeated.  In anger he resigned from PFG.  When Koike formed HP in 2017 he joined and after most of the ex-DPJ members of HP formed DPP in 2018 he became head of the rump HP. Now he will join JRP.  I suspect on the long run where he really belongs is LDP but he has bad blood with the various LDP factions in  神奈川(Kanagawa) so he is pretty much jumping around and joining all non-LDP Center-Right parties.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 15, 2019, 06:34:09 pm
It might be useful to focus in a bit more on Tokyo.  Tokyo is a 6- member district.  In 2013 when it was a 5- member district it was LDP KP JCP RS LDP.  DPJ in 2012 goofed up its nomination strategy where it nominated two candidates but once it realized that it was a over-nomination it tried to withdraw one of its candidates who in turn ran as an independent and took away enough votes from the other DPJ candidates to let the no-to-popular second LDP candidate to squeeze in.  RS here is obviously the radical left anti-nuclear 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō).

This time around on the on the Right we have the 2 LDP and 1 KP incumbent as well as a JRP candidate 音喜多駿 (Otsuki Tae) who has a YP background and is a MLA of Tokyo and was re-elected in 2017 riding the Koike wave until he went over the JRP.
()

The problem for the Right here is that the  more popular of the two LDP incumbents 丸川 珠代( Marukawa Tamayo) will tend to pull in a large part of the Center-Right vote and hurt both the second LDP candidate as well as the JRP candidate from crossing the threshold.
()
       

On the Left it is a crowded field.  The JCP and RS incumbents are running for re-election.  Here the RS candidate 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is the wild card because he actually have cross-partisan appeal despite his Far Left politics
()

In addition CDP nominated 2 candidates, DPP 1 and SDP 1 candidate each.  The more popular of the CDP candidates is 塩村文夏(Shiomura Ayaka) who is Tokyo MLA
()

It seems that the LDP KP and JCP will for sure get into the top 6 as KP and JCP have their own core vote which would be enough to get them across the finishing line.  The DPP and SDP candidates cannot win but can be relevant on how much of the Center-Left vote they pull in.

Most likely 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will win the 4th seat leaving 塩村文夏(Shiomura Ayaka) and the second LDP incumbent to win the last two seats.  Depending on how much the second CDP candidate as well as the DPP can SDP pulls in from the Center Left vote and how much  丸川 珠代( Marukawa Tamayo) pulls in from the Center Right vote will determine if JRP's 音喜多駿 (Otsuki Tae) could sneak in or perhaps the second CDP candidate could sneak in ahead of the second LDP candidate or even 塩村文夏(Shiomura Ayaka). 

At this stage other than LDP's 丸川 珠代( Marukawa Tamayo), the JCP candidate and the KP candidate no other candidate is a sure bet to win.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 16, 2019, 03:36:20 pm
Another fringe right wing party that has ran in various Upper house district seats before but this time will also run on the PR slate is NHKから国民を守る党 or Party to protect people from the NHK.
()

The party which has been around since 2013 is founded and led by 立花 孝志 (Tachibana Takashi).  He seems to have worked for NHK for a long time but had a falling out and was fired from his job there.  The party's position is that the NHK is part of some World Government Globalist conspiracy and is focused on de-funding NHK.    This had some some successes in various local elections as a protest party but is unlikely to get anywhere close to even a reasonable chunk of votes to win any seats on the PR slate.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: xelas81 on June 16, 2019, 04:07:58 pm
Another fringe right wing party that has ran in various Upper house district seats before but this time will also run on the PR slate is NHKから国民を守る党 or Party to protect people from the NHK.

The party which has been around since 2013 is founded and led by 立花 孝志 (Tachibana Takashi).  He seems to have worked for NHK for a long time but had a falling out and was fired from his job there.  The party's position is that the NHK is part of some World Government Globalist conspiracy and is focused on de-funding NHK.    This had some some successes in various local elections as a protest party but is unlikely to get anywhere close to even a reasonable chunk of votes to win any seats on the PR slate.

LOL
There is literal anime about a guy who thinks NHK is part of vast conspiracy out to get him.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Welcome_to_the_N.H.K.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 16, 2019, 04:52:16 pm
Mainichi poll on PR vote (diff from May)

LDP   31(-3)
KP      4(-1)
JRP     6(+1)
DPP    2(+1)
CDP   12(+1)
JCP     5(+2)

LDP-KP losing ground.  JRP surge continues.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 16, 2019, 08:35:24 pm
Kyodo News on PR vote (diff from May)

LDP   34.1(-4.1)
KP      4.4(+0.3)
JRP    4.3(-0.3)
DPP    2.0(+0.9)
CDP  12.4(+1.2)
SDP    1.0(+0.3)
JCP     3.0(+0.1)

LDP also losing ground in this poll

Back in June 2016 Kyodo poll was

LDP    28.9
KP       6.3
ORA    2.4
DP     10.9
LP       0.7
SDP    1.6
JCP     5.3


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2019, 11:22:53 am
FNN poll on Constitutional revision (difference from May)

Is it a good idea to have a debate on Constitutional Revision Yes/No 63.3(-13.2)/22.9(+6.9)
Are you for Constitutional revision to explicitly legalize SDF Yes/No 41.5(-6.9)/38(+2.3)

()

Not that this is about explicitly legalize SDF which traditionally have a small majority for such a change versus removal of pacifist Article  9 which traditionally have large majorities against. 

While poll trend is working against even the watered version of Constitutional revision (explicitly legalize SDF) this issue might still be a winner for LDP.  Like the USA abortion and gun issue in previous years while there has a pro-Choice/pro-gun control majority the number of people that will vote on the abortion issue actually skews pro-Life/anti-gun control.  The bloc of voters are are for Constitutional revision tend to turn out more and are much more likely to vote on the issue.  LDP just cannot go to far and make it the be all and end of of an election campaign lest they unleash a sleeping giant of the anti-constitutional change majority in a high turnout election.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2019, 11:59:27 am
Another fringe right wing party that has ran in various Upper house district seats before but this time will also run on the PR slate is NHKから国民を守る党 or Party to protect people from the NHK.

The party which has been around since 2013 is founded and led by 立花 孝志 (Tachibana Takashi).  He seems to have worked for NHK for a long time but had a falling out and was fired from his job there.  The party's position is that the NHK is part of some World Government Globalist conspiracy and is focused on de-funding NHK.    This had some some successes in various local elections as a protest party but is unlikely to get anywhere close to even a reasonable chunk of votes to win any seats on the PR slate.

LOL
There is literal anime about a guy who thinks NHK is part of vast conspiracy out to get him.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Welcome_to_the_N.H.K.

立花 孝志 (Tachibana Takashi) announcing NHKから国民を守る党(Party to protect people from the NHK) candidate for 長野(Nagano) looks like a complete disaster.  The background make the party seems like some guy's garage and the candidate in question 古屋孝(Takashi Furuya) looks extremely nervous and a complete novice in politics that is unable to speak in public. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcQ0UCXt_64

Still I am not sure the LDP is laughing.  The fact is   NHKから国民を守る党(Party to protect people from the NHK)  could cut in the the LDP vote can perhaps cost the LDP a seat in the PR slate.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 17, 2019, 05:37:31 pm
FNN poll on PR vote (diff from May)

LDP   31.4 (-8.4)
KP      6.1 (+1.6)
JRP    6.9 (+0.8 )
DPP   1.6 (-0.8 )
CDP   9.2(-0.1)
JCP    4.4 (+0.5)

LDP losing ground but mostly to KP and JRP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 18, 2019, 12:38:56 pm
Looks like JRP is consolidating all Third Pole (non-LDP Center-Right) forces. 

In 愛知(Aichi) old DPJ right wing splinter TCJ and JRP will run 岬麻紀(Tama Ki) on the JRP ticket in the 4- member district.   In 2016 TCJ ran a candidate with JRP support.  She is unlikely to win but her running can help push up the JRP PR vote. 

In 北海道(Hokkaido) JRP got old LDP anti-postal reform splinter NPD founder and leader 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) to run on the JRP PR slate.  NDP was an on again off again DPJ ally back in the 2006-2014 period.  NPD broke with DPJ/DP after it was clear by 2016 that DP wanted an alliance with JCP in 1- member districts.  Suzuki's daughter 鈴木 貴子(Suzuki Takako) who ran and won the DPJ ticket (as part of the best loser PR slate) in 2014 ran and won on the LDP PR slate in 2017.  This is a big coup for JRP which will really push up their PR vote in  北海道(Hokkaido).   I think more likely than not the JRP PR vote will most likely exceed JCP in 2019.  JRP vs JCP PR was 9.20% vs 10.74% in 2016 and in 2017 6.07% vs 7.90%  I think this time around it will most likely be something like JRP 10.0% JCP 9.5%.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 18, 2019, 02:59:50 pm
Another change in the election law for the Upper House is an adjustment to the PR vote to allow for "specific quota" on the PR slate.

 Until 2001 the way Japan Upper House "PR" section worked was that it was really not a PR section but turned Japan into a massive N- member district.  Back then every party will nominated a bunch of candidates and independents  can run as well in a second ballot where a voter can vote for one of a long list of candidates with the top N (historically around 50) getting elected.  For 2001 this got changed to a Open list PR system where a voter can vote for the party or a particular candidate of said party on the party list and the total votes garnered by a party would determine the number of seats and the top X vote winners on that list being elected.

For 2016 due to rulings by the supreme court on the vote value disparity 鳥取(Tottori) and 島根(Shimane) had to be merged into one district as well as 徳島(Tokushima) and 高知(Kōchi)
()

After the 2016 Upper House elections voters in these 4 prefecture complained that this left 2 of them without a member of the Upper House to represent them.  To fix this LDP decided to "eat" this one and changed the law to allow for the Open list PR to be changed that allows the party designate candidates as part of a "specific quota" that are at the top of the PR list and are automatically elected as long as the party gets enough votes for them to win.  These candidates are not on the ballot to be voted on.  NHK sort of explains this
()

So the LDP PR list has a candidate from 徳島(Tokushima) and 島根(Shimane) in their "specific quota" on the top of their list given the LDP candidate for 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) is from 鳥取(Tottori) and the LDP candidate from 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) is from 高知(Kōchi) with both certain to win.  Of course this just makes the job of the LDP candidates on the LDP PR list that much harder since that takes away two slots the LDP has that the LDP PR candidates can go after.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 20, 2019, 09:06:07 am
It seems NHKから国民を守る党(Party to protect people from the NHK) (I guess I will call it PNHK) will is going all out this election and will run candidates in every district.  I guess it is trying to make a name for itself just like HRP did in 2009 in running candidates almost everywhere.  Now that HRP is reconsigned as an "established"  fringe protest party it is much more conservative in its nomination strategy.  PNHK I guess want to get their name out there this election.  The impact will be small but will cut into the disgruntled LDP vote.   This move will also help the PNHK PR vote although not for them to get a PR seat.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 23, 2019, 10:00:56 am
Asahi poll for PR vote

LDP   40(+3)
KP      6(--)
JRP     6(-1)
DPP    3(--)   
CDP  13(+1)
SDP    1(--)
RS      1(--)
JCP     5(--)

Back in June 2016 the Asahi poll for PR was

LDP    38 (-1)
KP        7 (--)
ORA      4 (-2)
DP      15 (+3)
JCP      6 (-1)

The Right-Left balance seem to be similar in 2019 as 2016


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 24, 2019, 07:31:33 am
NHK poll came in with a drop in Abe Cabinet approval  and LDP support

Abe Approval 42/34
()
()

Ths is leading to drop in the Abe cabinet approval curve.
()

LDP party support also dropping a bit
()

 Aoki Index (sum of Cabinet approval plus LDP support) around 82 (46+36) which historically points to a significant LDP victory but it lower than most other Abe victories.

The NHK based Aoki Index is 73.6 (42+31.6) which is lower than other Abe victories: 2013 - 99.5, 2014 - 85.1, 2016 - 88.3 and is similar to 2017 - 71.8.

It will be interesting to see if NHK poll is a trend


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 24, 2019, 07:35:18 am
ANN poll on PR vote

LDP    33.0
KP       4.5
JRP      2.8
DPP     1.2
CDP     9.8
SDP    0.8
JCP     5.4

Back in 2016 June the ANN poll on PR was

LDP    43.0
KP       5.2
ORA    2.1
DP     14.9
SDP    1.3
JCP     6.9

Looks like all parties except for JRP have lost ground relative to 2016 which seems to portend a more volatile election result.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 24, 2019, 07:56:26 am
Hokkaido Times poll for 北海道(Hokkaido) PR vote seems to be good news for LDP as it has

LDP     41
KP        3
JRP      4
DPP      4
CDP    25
SDP     1
JCP      5

()

LDP-KP tends to around the low 40s in 北海道(Hokkaido) for PR.  In 2017 it dropped to around 40% due to NPD running on the PR slate which ate into the LDP vote.    With NPD founder and leader 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) going to run on the JRP PR slate one would have expected LDP-KP to be around 40% at best and JRP doing better than 4%.  This poll seem to indicate that the NRP merger, at least for this election, into JRP did not mean that JRP picks up the 2017 NPD PR vote and instead the 2017 NPD PR vote that came from LDP voters are going back to LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 24, 2019, 08:06:00 pm
Asahi poll on Abe led Constitutional revision - For/Against 30/50

Abe might have to go gently on this issue although the For bloc is far more motivated and likely to turn out.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: xelas81 on June 24, 2019, 09:57:37 pm
Asahi poll on Abe led Constitutional revision - For/Against 30/50

Abe might have to go gently on this issue although the For bloc is far more motivated and likely to turn out.

It seems to me that Abe personally wants the Constitutional revision but is unwilling to take the risk to actually to have the referendum. IMO regardless of the actual results the referendum could cause politcal realignment detrimental to LDP and Abe.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on June 25, 2019, 12:41:13 am
NHK poll came in with a drop in Abe Cabinet approval  and LDP support
what is the likeliest explanation for this?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 25, 2019, 06:18:34 am
NHK poll came in with a drop in Abe Cabinet approval  and LDP support
what is the likeliest explanation for this?

Partly the decision to go ahead with consumption tax increase but mostly because of a recent report from the Financial Services Agency suggesting the average couple would need to have saved 20m yen to cover living expenses in retirement given the state of Japan social security system.  The perception is that current Minister of Finance and CPM as well as former PM Tarō Asō is not taking action by proposing "solutions" to this report is dragging down the popularity of the Abe Cabinet and LDP as a whole. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 25, 2019, 06:42:03 am
Some things to note about Japanese polls

1) Various party support polls are mostly useless.  Given the social stigma of backing a loser all these polls overestimate LDP support and underestimate everyone else.  Polls in PR voting intentions are better as some anti-LDP voters are willing to state they will vote for an opposition party on the PR line.

2) KP support is always underestimated due to the stigma of being associated with  Soka Gakkai which many view as a cult.  The social stigma of being for KP is mostly even worse than the social stigma of being for JCP.  Many KP supporters claim to be for KP's ally LDP.   KP will always be 12.5-15.0 no matter what regardless of what the polls say. 

3) As a result of 1) and 2), the sum of LDP and KP support or PR vote most likely is the true level of LDP+KP support with the rest scattered among various opposition parties.   

4) Just like KP has social stigma, JRP support outside of 大阪(Osaka) is underestimated due to social stigma of backing what is seen as a 大阪(Osaka) based regional party.

5) Since 2013 LDP-KP PR vote always ends up around 45-50 and this election most likely will be no different.  So elections in Japan is really about guessing the distribution of the rest of the vote.

This time around the election field is somewhat cleaner.  With 50 PR seats the de facto threshold to wins seats is around 1.8%.

1) On the Third Pole side (anti-LDP but Center-Right opposition) it seems JRP pretty much has got rid off or M&A all other Third Pole parties (NDP and TCJ are running on JRP ticket while PJK and NPR are both gone.)  There should be no wasted votes in the Third Pole side.  There are going to be fringe protest parties like HRP and now PNHK but many of voters that will vote for them are protest voters anyway and are just as likely to vote LDP as JRP if HRP and PNHK are not on the ballot.

2) On the Center-Left Opposition space with LP merging into DPP there is a reduction of a vote wasting parties.  RS could be one but I suspect RS should be able to win a seat.  Long time politician 小林興起(Kobayashi Kouki) who started out in the LDP but since 2005 has been in various Opposition or Third Pole parties started new party called "オリーブの木" or Olive that is anti-nuclear and for election reform to get rid of FPTP seats might pull in some center-left votes but it is just as likely to attract disgruntled LDP voters.

3) A danger for LDP-KP is PNHK might win an outsize bloc of LDP voters.  Parties running for the first time in Japan tends to over-perform due to novelty value. This is why I suspect RS might cross 1.8% and PNHK could eat into the LDP and perhaps JRP vote by more than one would expect.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 25, 2019, 06:45:18 am
Asahi poll on Abe led Constitutional revision - For/Against 30/50

Abe might have to go gently on this issue although the For bloc is far more motivated and likely to turn out.

It seems to me that Abe personally wants the Constitutional revision but is unwilling to take the risk to actually to have the referendum. IMO regardless of the actual results the referendum could cause politcal realignment detrimental to LDP and Abe.

it certainly looks that way.  I think part of Abe just want the issue to motivate the core LDP vote to come out.  Abe might have to wait until he steps from from PM for the  Constitutional revision he wants to take place.  The main problem is that despite winning landslides/solid victories in 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 and now most likely 2019 Abe is actually not that popular.  Most policies of the Abe cabinet are a less popular than the Abe cabinet.  Anything Abe is for instantly becomes unpopular.  The reason why Abe wins is TINA (the main reason why people are for Abe is "because there is no one else")  Abe will have to step up the political and intellectual basis for  Constitutional revision and let his LDP successor carry it out and win the referendum.   


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2019, 11:18:12 am
From latest Asahi PR vote poll

LDP (Blue) stronger with the youth.  JRP (Grey) stronger with the middle aged.  CDP(Green) and JCP(Red) stronger with the elderly. 

()

Although a lot of the middle aged DK (Purple) I suspect are lower turnout CDP or DPP voters.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2019, 11:22:45 am
Abe defines the Upper House elections as "whether Japan will move ahead with reforms for a new era under a stable government or it will go back to troubled times" focusing on the TINA issue.

Abe did push the constitutional revision issue but left if vague on what that means.  It seems that LDP will also focus on the fact it enacted legislation to expand child-care support by offering free preschool education.  Of course this law does nothing to expand the supply of preschool education so I am not sure how useful this really is.

CDP seems to think the pension shortfall is an issue that LDP will be vulnerable on and seems to be focusing on that as a main issue.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2019, 11:49:38 am
Opposition talking point on LDP performance last few Lower House elections

           Turnout   LDP PR vote   LDP seat share 
                          % of VAP
2009      69%          18%              24%
2012      59%          16%              61%
2014      52%          17%              61%
2017      53%          17%              60%

()

The key point for the opposition is that high turnout is the way to beat LDP since the LDP vote as a % of VAP is pretty stable last few cycles.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2019, 06:09:58 pm
JX poll on Tokyo PR vote.  Massive lead for LDP (diff from last 2017 pre-election poll for PR vote in Tokyo)

LDP  48(+18)
KP      5
JRP     3
DPP    2
CDP  23(+3)
JCP   10(+2)

()

Looks like most of the 2017 HP PR vote are going over to LDP.  If true this is ominous for CDP.  In the 2013-2016 period the LDP-KP PR vote in Tokyo is around 45% but was around 41% in 2017 due to HP.  This poll seems to imply a LDP surge from that level by  more than 5%.  Most likely a outlier but if it is not then LDP will have a breakout year.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 27, 2019, 08:04:46 am
Kyodo poll of PR section

LDP   28.8
KP      5.6
JRP     3.2
DPP    1.6
CDP    9.0
SDP    1.2
JCP     3.4

Back in June 2016 Kyodo poll had

LDP           27.2
KP              5.4
DP            11.7

Back in Jun 2013 Kyodo poll had

LDP            29.8
NKP             5.6
DPJ              7.1

So it seems on the PR section 2019 will be a repeat of 2016 which would be sort by bad news for CDP and DPP where it was expected that CDP + DPP PR vote should exceed 2016 DP PR vote by some margin.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 27, 2019, 08:36:06 am
Sankei Shimbun magazine Zakzak came out with their current projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         37      18        55
KP            7        7        14
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          2         3         5
CDP        13       12       25
RS            1         1        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           2         4        6
OPPN        9                   9  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

()

Which would produce

LDP+           69
Center Left   42
Third Pole      7
JCP               6

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          140
Center Left   79
Third Pole     14
JCP              12

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.14% of the seats.

By reverse engineering this projection the seats that this project calls that are at odds with CW are

1) CDP wins 青森(Aomori) over LDP when CW has this as very likely LDP
2) CDP wins 宮城(Miyagi) and OPPN wins 滋賀(Shiga) when CW has both of them lean LDP
3)  OPPN wins 愛媛(Ehime) when CW has it as tossup but slight lean LDP
4) CDP wins third seat in 兵庫(Hyōgo) over JRP when CW has as lean JRP for the third and last spot.  I happen to agree with this projection on this one.

Overall this projection as a somewhat anti-LDP lean.  But that is normal from a pro-LDP media outfit like Sankei Shimbun.  Most Japanese media projections tend to overcompensate for their house effect.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 27, 2019, 08:40:55 am
There will be at Party Leaders debate on July 4th.  It seems RS's 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is not invited.  I guess if RS starts to poll better then perhaps he will end up being invited.  I figure RS will perform on the PR slate roughly around the same as SDP.  So if SDP is invited then so should RS in my view.

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Cape Verde on June 27, 2019, 04:24:23 pm
The worst scenario for the Japanese left is that SDP and RS will each receive around 1.5% of the PR vote and none of the parties would win a PR seat.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 28, 2019, 04:37:43 am
Kyodo poll on support/opposition on Abe Constitutional revision 35.0/50.1

Breakdown by party support
()

LDP supporters are 61.8/25.3 is not a surprise.  The real number for support is most likely greater since many so called LDP supporters are KP supporters in disguise.
CDP DPP JCP hugh majorities against not a surprise.  To show how small the sample size of SDP has become SDP supporters are 0/100.

What is key to note here is KP support is 24.8/49.7 which is not surprise given KP's pacifist and dovish position on international policy.  But what is key here is that the KP vote will still vote LDP-KP despite their opposition to constitutional revision. This is why the 35.0/50.1 gap is not as much of a problem for Abe as it appears. 

JRP supporters seems to only lean constitutional revision  54.5/41.0 which plays into the narrative that part of the JRP are old centrist DPJ vote that is anti-LDP  while not Left wing are not necessary right wing either on the hawk-dove axis but has become disillusioned with DPJ and their successors (DP, DPP, CDP).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 28, 2019, 04:41:21 am
The worst scenario for the Japanese left is that SDP and RS will each receive around 1.5% of the PR vote and none of the parties would win a PR seat.

I think SDP should be at least 1.7% so they will be very close to the threshold.  Actually high turnout at this stage hurt SDP.  RS vote despite ideological similarity are based on a marginal left protest vote that will need 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) to turnout which does not actually hurt SDP's ability to get to around 1.8%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 28, 2019, 06:30:32 am
Sankei Shimbun magazine Zakzak also did a poll/projection for the 東京(Tokyo) 6 member district. 

()

Which mostly matches CW.  That LDP's  incumbent 丸川 珠代( Marukawa Tamayo), the KP and JCP imcumbants are shoe-in to make it.    It has RS's incumbant 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō), the second LDP incumbent and CDP's  塩村文夏(Shiomura Ayaka) as likely to make it into the top 6.  Behind them are JRP's 音喜多駿 (Otsuki Tae) and the DPP candidate both with a shot at coming in the top 6 but are underdogs.  What is surprising is that the DPP candidate is seen having a short versus the second CDP candidate. 

This poll seems to indicate that  東京(Tokyo) has a bias toward women candidates.  LDP's 丸川 珠代( Marukawa Tamayo), CDP's 塩村文夏(Shiomura Ayaka), JCP's 吉良佳子(Kira Yoshiko), and DPP's 水野素子
(Mizuno Motoko) all seem to be meeting or exceeding expectations

()

Of course back in 2016 DP's 村田 蓮舫(Murata Renhō) was so popular that she pulled in so many Center and Center-Left votes that she almost cost DP from winning a second seat.  She went on to become the leader of DP and ended up having to resign due to poor performance of DP in the Tokyo prefecture elections.  Still overall it seems Tokyo is very friendly for women candidates.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 28, 2019, 06:58:56 am
Magazine Nikkan Gendai came out with a survey that claims that LDP will be defeated in 14 1- member districts

()

They are respectively

青森(Aomori) - this is a stretch but in theory possible
岩手(Iwate)
宮城(Miyagi)
秋田(Akita) - this is a stretch but the opposition backed independent has deep roots here
山形(Yamagata)
福島(Fukushima)
新潟(Niigata)
山梨(Yamanashi) - on paper competitive but the LDP incumbent is very popular
長野(Nagano)
三重(Mie)
滋賀(Shiga) - on paper not competitive but opposition backed independent is a former governor
愛媛(Ehime)
大分(Ōita)
沖縄(Okinawa)

which are pretty much all the competitive or lean opposition seats.  The magazine also claims that the LDP could potentially be upset in 徳島(Tokushima)-高知(Kōchi) and 佐賀(Saga)

Nikkan Gendai has a record of coming out with very anti-LDP projections to get people to buy their magazine as you do not get people to buy the magazine at newsstands predicting a boring LDP landslide victory.

Just to show this the front cover of the magazine has a large "Shock Upper House Projection. Major Defeat for LDP in 1- member districts"
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 28, 2019, 07:11:18 am
As the campaign is about to get started there has been a recurring pattern last several elections (2014 2016 2017) of the dynamics of the race. 

Phase 1: About a month before election day, it seems that LDP might be in trouble with some media projections showing significant losses for the LDP due to the opposition getting their act together either because of better collaboration or projecting someone that can defeat the Abe TINA advantage.   One could not be sure since these media outfits could be trying to just sell some extra magazines with provocative projections. 

Phase 2: About 3-4 seeks before the election the opposition makes a series of unforced errors that raises doubt that a setback for LDP will get in coalition of chaos.

Phase 3: Then 2 weeks before the election various media outfits publish projections based on some mega polls (with potentially sample sizes of over 100K) which show a massive LDP landslide.   In retrospect these projections exaggerates the size of the LDP victory but the message is clear that the LDP is going to steamroll to victory.

Phase 4: Due to projections of a LDP landslide turnout is low with the anti-LDP vote not motivated to vote, especially for a loser, which aids in a LDP victory which is smaller than originally expected but still a significant  victory.

So far this election Phase 1 is running as expected.  We are about to enter into Phase 2 so we will see if there are some opposition goof-ups next week or so.    The media mega polls come out 2 weeks before election day so they should come out around July 7th which is next weekend.  Lets see if this year's election goes according to script the last few cycles.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Cape Verde on June 28, 2019, 05:57:20 pm
Will 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) finally return to the Diet? I am not sure if he is completely free of cancer, but his return will be interesting to watch. I am also curious whether his daughter will continue to stay in LDP or cross over to JRP after the election.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 28, 2019, 07:53:35 pm
Will 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) finally return to the Diet? I am not sure if he is completely free of cancer, but his return will be interesting to watch. I am also curious whether his daughter will continue to stay in LDP or cross over to JRP after the election.

JRP will win 4-5 seats on the PR slate.  It is pretty much a certainty that 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) will be in the top 3 if not the top vote winner in the JRP list so he will for sure be elected.  In 2017  Suzuki  ran in the NPD PR slate while his daughter ran on the LDP PR slate.  So there is no reason why their cannot hedge their bets by being in 2 different parties.

Both of them being in parliament is poor political etiquette.  Just like the old English rule on one daughter from a family and be a Débutante  at a time Japanese politics has a similar unwritten rule that only one member of a political clan can be in active politics at the same time.  The Suzukis are breaking this etiquette.

 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on June 29, 2019, 07:42:18 am
Will 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) finally return to the Diet? I am not sure if he is completely free of cancer, but his return will be interesting to watch. I am also curious whether his daughter will continue to stay in LDP or cross over to JRP after the election.

JRP will win 4-5 seats on the PR slate.  It is pretty much a certainty that 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) will be in the top 3 if not the top vote winner in the JRP list so he will for sure be elected.  In 2017  Suzuki  ran in the NPD PR slate while his daughter ran on the LDP PR slate.  So there is no reason why their cannot hedge their bets by being in 2 different parties.

Both of them being in parliament is poor political etiquette.  Just like the old English rule on one daughter from a family and be a Débutante  at a time Japanese politics has a similar unwritten rule that only one member of a political clan can be in active politics at the same time.  The Suzukis are breaking this etiquette.

 
https://bunshun.jp/articles/-/2366
This is an interesting in-depth article I found re: Takako and Muneo Suzuki.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 29, 2019, 08:22:00 pm
This chart shows how the Japan Upper House PR open list system works.  One can vote for a party OR a member of the Party list.  The number of seats to be allocated to a party is based on the sum of all the votes for the party and everyone on its list.  Then the allocation of winners based on the seats allocated is a function of the number of votes received by the candidates on this list.

()

So on this chart, the third place vote vote receiver of Party A is not elected since he came in third but the first place finisher of Party B is elected even though the candidate on the Party A  received just as many votes as the the candidate on the Party B list (500K).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 30, 2019, 07:11:13 am
Nikkei poll on PR section (diff from May)

LDP   44(+1)
KP      6(+1)
JRP     6(-1)
DPP    1(-1)
CDP  14(+3)
SDP    2(+1)
JCP     4(--)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 30, 2019, 07:14:38 am
Looks like I got my dates wrong.  The first NicoNico (Japan's Youtube) party leader's debate is taking place right now

()

It seems SDP was not invited and neither is RS.  I guess that is consistent standard on poll threshold to participate. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 30, 2019, 08:00:12 am
The seating arrangement of the debate is not random.  It has LDP and CDP in the middle as the main combatants. their main ally KP and DPP on their flanks, and then JRP and JCP on the fringe which represents the remoteness of both these parties to national power.  Of course this elevates DPP since it is clear that JCP and JRP support in polls exceed DPP. 

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 30, 2019, 08:03:07 am
The debate so far is mostly going according to script.  The opposition parties attacking Abe on the the pension system shortfall problem and the consumption tax increase while Abe attacks the opposition for trying to bring a coalition of chaos by forming an alliance with the JCP at the 1- member district seats.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 30, 2019, 08:19:33 am
Yomiuri Shimbun poll on PR vote

LDP   40
KP      5
JRP     6
DPP    2
CDP  10
SDP    2
JCP    4

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval 53(-2)/36(+4)

()

Back in June 2016 it was

LDP     35 (-7)
KP         7 (+2)
ORA       7 (+2)
DP       12 (+1)
JCP        4 (-1)

Back in 2013 it was

LDP      42
KP          6
JRP         5
YP          5
DPJ        9
JCP        4


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 30, 2019, 01:12:03 pm
The Opposition talking point about how the LDP PR vote ranges from only 17%-19% of VAP made me construct this chart below with the 5 main parties/blocs where I track vote share of each party/bloc as a function of VAP.  Turnout is also total valid (non-null) PR vote as a % of VAP.

Year    Turnout    LDP         KP      Center     Third       JCP
                                                  Left         Pole
2001   54.03%  20.84%   8.08%  13.29%   6.29%   4.27%
2003   57.77%  20.19%   8.54%  24.56%                4.48%
2004   54.52%  16.37%   8.40%  25.37%   0.13%   4.25%
2005   65.85%  25.14%   8.73%  24.04%   3.17%   4.78%
2007   56.81%  15.95%   7.49%  26.02%   3.10%   4.25%
2009   67.70%  18.10%   7.75%  31.60%   5.49%   4.76%
2010   56.19%  13.53%   7.34%  20.29%  11.60%  3.43%
2012   57.89%  15.99%   6.85%  13.92%  17.58%  3.55%
2013   51.11%  17.72%   7.27%    9.81%  11.35%  4.95%
2014   51.30%  16.99%   7.04%  11.66%   9.69%   5.83%
2016   52.74%  18.94%   7.13%  13.96%   6.44%   5.66%
2017   52.56%  17.49%   6.58%  20.46%   3.76%   4.15%

It seems in 2003 the fusion of Third Pole Ozawa led LP into DPJ led the larger DPJ to pull in extra anti-LDP vote now there was an alternative to LDP.  

In 2004 the LDP turnout declined which produced a near tie between LDP-KP and DPJ

The 2005 Koizumi landslide was mostly about LDP losing some votes to the various LDP postal rebels that became Third Pole but easily made up for that by a massive pro-LDP turnout while the DPJ vote stayed the same.

In 2007 under Abe disappointment in LDP reforms led to a large drop in LDP turnout which with a small increase in the DPJ vote led to a decisive LDP defeat while in 2009 part of the LDP vote came back but a massive turnout for DPJ led to a landslide DPJ victory.

In 2010 disappointment in both LDP and DPJ led to lower turnout for those parties while some of that support went to LDP splinter Third Pole YP.  

In 2012 the total failure of the DPJ regime led to a swing toward LDP and a rising Third Pole JRP which produced a LDP landslide.   By 2013 the decline of DPJ turnout continued while LDP took over some of the JRP and YP vote.

The decline of Third Pole continued in 2014 with some of that support flowing back to the Center-Left parties which continued in 2016 and 2017 while LDP support mostly bounced between 17%-19% of VAP.

The 2017 election saw HP eat into the JRP vote due to the Koike effect which will be reversed in 2019 so it is reasonable that Third Pole parties will poll around 5%-6% of VAP.

Other secular trends are that KP is slowing declining over time while JCP support fell in 2010 and 2012 when the ruling party was DPJ and then surged due to the 2014-2016 era of continued anger at DPJ but after that reverted back to its historical norm of 4%-5% of VAP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on June 30, 2019, 07:35:04 pm
On the topic of Constitutional revision both Abe and CDP's Edano tried to frame the debate to their advantage.   Abe positioned it as the need to keep SDF legal from CDP's ally JCP that Abe pointed out has a position that SDF is unconstitutional.  Edano positioned Constitutional revision as about getting Japan entangled in collective defense treaties where Japan will be forced to be involved in a war along with an ally (read: USA) that is against a power that is not at war with Japan (read: Iran, or even PRC/Russia.)   

There is a majority that for keeping SDF legal but there is also a majority that is against Japan being involved in a foreign war due to its alliance with other powers.  Both Abe and Edano is trying the frame the debate in a way to get the majority opinion on their side.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 01, 2019, 07:20:27 am
Report station poll

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval 43.3(-3.9)/38.2(+5.7)

PR section of Upper House election

LDP  33.0
KP     4.5
JRP    2.8
DPP   1.2
CDP   9.8
SDP   0.8
JCP    5.4
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 01, 2019, 07:26:50 am
Another Center-Left/JCP attack on LDP pointed out that almost the entire Abe Cabinet is a member of 日本会議(Nippon Kaigi) which is an NGO that promotes nationalism, patriotism and constitutional revision.
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It is really about point of view.  From the Opposition point of view this is like saying: "Hey, have you noticed that almost everyone one in the Abe Cabinet is a member of a ultra-nationalist Skull and Bones/Trilateral Commission !!"

From the LDP point of view it is : "So almost everyone in the Abe cabinet is a member of the pro-patriotic Heritage Foundation/CPAC? So what, that is a feature of being in the LDP and not a bug"


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 01, 2019, 10:05:20 am
Abe Cabinet approval and party support curves after a rash of polls over the weekend.

Abe Cabinet support seem to stabilize around 46/36
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Party support have LDP around 36 and CDP rising again past 7 toward 8
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 01, 2019, 10:28:40 am
Some LDP leaked polls (which could be strategic so take it with a large grain of salt)

Competitive 1- member districts
秋田(Akita) LDP 41.9 OPPN 40.0 - surprisingly close given lean of prefecture
岩手(Iwate ) OPPN 38.6 LDP 37.3 - surprisingly close, should be a significant OPPN victory.  LDP candidate was a long time member of Ozawa clique so he might have a strong personal vote beyond LDP base
宮城(Miyagi) LDP 42.6 CDP 41.2 - very close as expected
山形(Yamagata) OPPN 43.5 LDP 41.6 - very close as expected
福島(Fukushima) LDP 41.7 OPPN 39.9 - very close as expected
新潟(Niigata) OPPN 42.7 LDP 35.6 - should be close but LDP incumbent is scandal ridden
三重(Mie) LDP 41.0 OPPN 36.7 - should be significant opposition lead. Local Center-Left and JCP are hostile to each other so JCP vote might not have been rallied behind the OPPN candidate yet
滋賀(Shiga) OPPN 42.8 LDP 42.0 - LDP should be ahead here. OPPN candidate is a popular ex-governor which might be making it a neck-to-neck race
愛媛(Ehime) - OPPN 45.6 LDP 37.9 - OPPN is an ex-DPJ member of Upper House and have deep roots here.  He ran in 2016 as OPPN candidate and almost won an upset.  Looks like this time he is well ahead which is a surprise
大分(Ōita) LDP 41.5 OPPN 37.6 - OPPN should be ahead or at least neck-to-neck here based on fundamentals.  SDP and JCP vote base not fusing and candidate quality gap seems to be giving LDP an edge here.

Multi-member districts

広島(Hiroshima) (2- member)
LDP    33.9
OPPN  21.7
LDP    17.1
JCP    ????

JRP vote seem to be consolidating behind LDP but poor distribution of vote is giving CDP-DPP backed OPPN a chance to beat back LDP's plans to win both seats.  Not knowing the JCP vote share does not give us a sense if the JCP vote will tactically vote OPPN to beat back the LDP.  A clear LDP signal for the LDP vote there to shift toward the weaker LDP candidate.


北海道(Hokkaido) (3- member)
LDP  33.8
CDP  22.8
LDP  11.5
JCP   10.2
DPP    4.9

It is a surprise that JCP is the candidate that is a challenge to stop a LDP win of 2 out of 3 seats and not DPP.  Could be a LDP ploy to get DPP voters to vote JCP to stop LDP when in reality the DPP candidate is the one close to weaker LDP candidate.  The stronger LDP candidate is a popular ex-governor so this poll is a signal for the LDP vote to consolidate around the weaker LDP candidate.


東京(Tokyo) (6- member)

LDP   17.8
JCP   12.2
KP     11.3
LDP     9.5
RS      9.0
CDP    7.5
CDP    5.8
JRP     4.9
DPP    1.5

LDP looks safe to win 2 seat here.  CDP looks fairly weak but so does JRP.  RS and JCP vote holding up.


KP also had some poll leaks where they have:

埼玉(Saitama) (4- member): LDP CDP and KP will win for sure.  JCP beat out DPP for the 4th seat.  Matches CW.
神奈川(Kanagawa) (4- member): LDP CDP and KP will win for sure. JRP beat out JCP for the 4th seat. Matches CW but I have JCP beating JRP.
兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member): LDP KP will win for sure. CDP beat out JRP for the 3rd seat.  CW has JRP winning but I have CDP winning.
愛知(Aichi) (4- member): LDP CDP DPP will win for sure. KP in a difficult battle with JCP and JRP for the 4th seat.  This is a surprise as CW has LDP KP CDP DPP win for sure with JCP and JRP with not much chance of getting into the top 4. KP might have defected KP weakness here is is putting this news out to ask for KP mobilization for  愛知(Aichi).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 01, 2019, 03:43:42 pm
In minor party news it seems 支持政党なし or Non-Party Bloc which was founded and led by businessperson 佐野秀光(Hidemitsu Sano) has renamed itself 安楽死制度を考える会 or  Euthanasia Party.  NPB has always had Euthanasia  as part of its plank but mostly positioned itself as a protest anti-politics party. Now it will focus on Euthanasia as its main plank.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 01, 2019, 06:30:43 pm
A new party that is running is the New Left 労働の解放をめざす労働者党 or Worker's party for the Liberation of Labor.  This party are made up of Far Left activists that broke with JCP back in the 1970s.  Main problem with this party is that it has no youth appeal and are made up of old New Left activists from the 1960s and 1970s.

Its PR list candidates make that clear

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()
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With all 4 candidates are in their 70s and 80s.  Even the protest anti-system voter most likely will not find their way to vote for this list.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 02, 2019, 12:06:02 pm
The KP position on Constitutional revision seems to be distancing itself from LDP.  KP insist that "there is no current concern nor risk that the SDF will become illegal.  The basis for discussion on Constitutional revision should focus on other concerns" which is pretty much cutting off the legs of the Abe argument that  Constitutional revision has to be done to protect the legality of SDF.

The main KP strategy here seems to be that it wants distance itself from LDP to get crossover votes from CDP-DPP voting bloc where it is running. Of course this could also encourage some crossover voting by KP voters for the Center-Left opposition  where KP is not running.  This sort of took place in 2016 and it seems will take place again this time around.  This should help the Center-Left Opposition in 1- member districts and multi-member battleground prefectures where KP is not running like 北海道(Hokkaido) and 広島(Hiroshima).  KP would expect with this maneuver to ensure its victory in places where it might be in danger like 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 愛知(Aichi) where KP claims it is vulnerable.  Of course if cross voting by CDP-DPP voters for KP takes place in place KP is running it also help JRP indirectly in places like 兵庫(Hyōgo) where CDP-DPP vote for KP would reduce the CDP vote and increase the JRP chance to beat out CDP for the 3rd and last seat while in places like 大阪(Osaka) and 神奈川(Kanagawa) cross voting by the Center-Left bloc for KP will reduce the Center-Left vote poll to tactically vote for JCP to beat JRP for the 4th and last seat.

KP does seem less confident this time around than pervious years.   So far KP has only nominated 6 PR candidates and it is not clear it will nominate more.  if it does not then it is an admission from KP that its PR vote share will be something like 12% versus something like 13.5%.  The secular trend is that KP support is slowing declining over time. At some point of turnout surges which could be what KP might be detecting than the KP PR vote share will fall.  A review of the KP PR vote history with turnout has

Year  Turnout   KP PR vote
2001  54.03%  14.96%
2003  57.77%  14.78%
2004  54.52%  15.41%
2005  65.85%  13.25%
2007  56.81%  13.18%
2009  67.70%  11.45%
2010  56.19%  13.07%
2012  57.89%  11.83%
2013  51.11%  14.22%
2014  51.30%  13.71%
2016  52.74%  13.52%
2017  52.56%  12.51%

If KP PR vote this time is also 12.5% then KP will get 6 seats and not 7 that many, including myself expect.  Of course if turnout is lower than 52.5% then this might become 7.  I guess KP feels that its support will be at best 2017 levels AND turnout might, if anything, increase.  KP is more interested to show its ability to win all seats  projects to win versus maximizing the number of its seats won.  So the KP strategy of nominating 6 PR candidates might make sense.  Of course this it not totally locked down yet.   



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 03, 2019, 05:03:08 am
Another party leader's debate at the Japan Press Club.  This time SDP attended but not RS.

Abe spent most of the time attacking the CDP-DPP alliance with JCP in 1- member districts even though CDP-DPP and JCP differ on the status of SDF where CDP-DPP feel that SDF is Constitutional while JCP does not.   Clearly Abe wants to hammer home the need for Constitutional revision while trying to break the Center-Left Opposition and JCP alliance.  The Center-Left Opposition mostly attacked Abe, again, on the state of the pension system and the consumption tax increase.   JRP accused the LDP of being for vested interest and rejected claims that JRP might join LDP in an post-election coalition.

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 03, 2019, 06:50:06 am
山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) made the last minute shock move of deciding to run on the RS PR list instead of running in 東京(Tokyo). I guess he might have seen the CDP strength in 東京(Tokyo) rise and with 2 CDP 1 DPP 1 SDP all fighting him for the 3 out of 6 seats available for the opposition (we have to assume that LDP will capture 2 and KP 1) he was not certain of victory.  So instead running on the RS slate he figure he could push the RS national vote up to get him elected.  

On the whole this seems like a net positive news for the anti-Constitutional revision bloc. While 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) running in 東京(Tokyo) meant that it is certain that the split of seats there will be 3-3 for LDP-KP and anti-Constitutional revision bloc there was a risk that RS might fall just below the threshold to get a PR seat.  With 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) at the head of the RS list it seem now almost certain that RS will cross the threshold to get a PR seat.  It now falls on CDP to win 2 out of 6 seats in  東京(Tokyo) (LDP will win 2 KP 1 and JCP 1) as poor distribution of the CDP vote might still throw away a seat to JRP waiting in the wings.  What the anti-Constitutional revision bloc gives up by having 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  not run in  東京(Tokyo) is a chance at winning  東京(Tokyo) 4-2 (LDP 1 KP 1 CDP 2 JCP 1 RS 1) where a large CDP surge and poor vote distribution by LDP has the second LDP candidate finishing behind the second CDP candidate.  But that was a very long shot anyway.

In fact now in retrospect  山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) might have coordinated with CDP on this a while ago.  It looked fairly irrational for CDP a while ago to nominate 2 candidates in 東京(Tokyo) given how crowed the field was which risked letting in JRP to win the 6th seat.  With 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) not running in  東京(Tokyo) then JRP would have beaten out DPP for the 6th seat had CDP only nominated one candidate.  With 2 CDP candidates and proper vote distribution CDP should be able to with both edging out JRP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 03, 2019, 06:56:43 am
It seems KP will nominate more than 6 PR candidates.  Still all signs are the way they are mobilizing their vote they are targeting to win 6 and no 7 PR seats.  One cannot be sure until the last week before the election on what the KP strategy is.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 03, 2019, 06:58:41 am
I guess the debate judges decided to copy the USA Democratic primary debate methods.  They asked for a show of hands on support for a change of the law to allow for the husband and wife to have different surnames. Everyone is for except for Abe.   I am surprised that JRP is for. But I guess JRP is trying to win the urban Right wing vote which are more liberal on social issues. Abe and LDP represent the rural Right which are more conservative on social issues even if they are more Centrist if not Leftist on economic policy.

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 03, 2019, 07:15:16 am
The USA Democratic Primary debate method of show of hands most of which are gender related have 4 questions

Question 1: Are you for allowing a female emperor
Only JCP and SDP are for.  Rest are against

Question 2: Are you for banning nuclear power
CDP JRP JCP SDP are for.  LDP KP DPP are against.    DPP is close to the labor union Rengo which represent a lot of workers at nuclear power plants.
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Question 3: Are you for allowing a husband and wife to have different last names.
Only LDP is againist everyone else is for.
()

Question 4: Are you for expanding LGBT rights.
LDP and KP are against everyone else are for.  KP is controlled by the Soka Gakkai which is in turn controlled by the Soka Gakkai married women division who are fairly conservative on the gay marriage issue.
()

It is interesting how socially liberal JRP.  JRP is of course much more right wing on economic policy and fairly hawkish on foreign policy especially with respect to DPRK.

Abe could see that these "votes" are costing him urban and suburban women votes and asked these Yes/No votes stop as he clearly was upset about these turn of events.  He complained on stage that policy requires discussion and is not about Yes/No.    
()

All things equal JRP most likely gained some socially liberal LDP votes away from LDP from this exchange.  Most likely not much to make much of a difference but JRP clearly gained from this exchange.

 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 03, 2019, 09:49:31 am
Chart on number of candidates

         District     PR
LDP     49          33
CDP     20          22
DPP     14          14
KP         7          17
JRP       8          14
SDP      3            4
RS              10            -> all should be PR
EP        9            1       -> Euthanasia Party
PNHK  37           4
Olive    6            4        -> Anti-nuclear center-left
HRP     9            3
LAB      6           4        -> New Left
IND    29                     -> 19 are Center-Left-JCP joint candidates, 2 are LDP rebels, rest minor

It seems PNHK is going all out.  Good strategy.  Brand new parties tend to over-perform due to novelty factor so PNHK wants to cash in on that.
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 03, 2019, 10:01:38 am
A couple of noted political analyst projections.  Frankly I know these two guys and last few election cycles their projections were even further off than my projections.  Anyway their projections are slightly more negative for LDP than CW 

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          District    PR      Total
LDP         37      17        54
KP            7        7        14
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          3         4         7
CDP          9       11       20
RS            1         1        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           3         5        8
OPPN      11                 11  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

          District    PR      Total
LDP         38      17        55
KP            7        7        14
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          3         3         6
CDP        12       13       25
RS            1         1        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           2         4        6
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Of course these projections are already obsolete because they did not take into account that RS's 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  will run on the PR list and not Tokyo.

My current projection which takes that into account is more positive for LDP.  I suspect after the mega polls this weekend my projection will become the most anti-LDP projection out there.

          District    PR      Total
LDP        41      18        59
KP            7        7        14
JRP          2         5          7
DPP          3         3         6
CDP        11       11       22
RS            0         1        1
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           3         4        7
OPPN        7                   7  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 04, 2019, 08:31:21 am
JX poll on 大阪(Osaka)

The level of support for the district candidates are

JRP
LDP
KP
JCP
JRP
CDP
DPP

The PR section has it at

JRP  30
LDP 17
JCP   8
KP    6
CDP  6

The PR level of support shows that the JCP lead over JRP for the 4th and last seat will not last and once the JRP machines goes into gear to allocate its vote correctly between the two candidates it should be JRP 2 LDP 1 KP 1 with JCP CDP and DPP out in the cold.  Only way JCP can beat JRP for the 4th seat if there are large scale tactical voting by CDP and DPP voters for JCP.  This seems unlikely as 大阪(Osaka) has been trending JRP since the JRP blowout victory in local elections back in April.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 04, 2019, 09:21:28 am
Abe "promised" that the rise of consumption tax from 8% to 10% later this year will be the last one within the next 10 years which might be fiscally unsustainable but he has no choice lest he loses more support in the Upper House elections due to the consumption tax increase issue.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-03/japan-s-abe-signals-no-sales-tax-hike-beyond-10-for-10-years


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 04, 2019, 09:22:07 am
Election campaigning officially starts today.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 04, 2019, 09:27:20 am
Gender balance of candidates of various parties.  LDP KP have very low number of women candidates while SDP CDP JCP have high number of women candidates (along with Center-Left-JCP joint candidates)  DPP and JRP are in the middle

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 04, 2019, 05:01:55 pm
長野(Nagano) poll.

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval 40.5/59.1

Support/opposition for Abe Constitutional revision 30.3/54.8

PR Vote

LDP   24.9
KP      5.1
JRP    1.6
DPP   3.5
CDP  11.0
SDP   1.4
JCP    3.7

Grouped you get

LDP-KP         30.0
Center-Left   15.9
Third Pole      1.6
JCP               3.7

Historically LDP-KP PR vote in 長野(Nagano) is around 7% less than all Japan levels.  

Back in 2016 PR poll was

LDP              33.6
KP                  4.1
PJK                0.2
NPR               0.2
ORA               1.3
DP                20.1
PLP                0.1
SDP               1.2
JCP                8.9

Grouped you get

LDP-KP         37.7
Center-Left   21.4
Third Pole      1.7
JCP               8.9

Since 2016 there seems to be a lot more undecided with JCP losing the most ground relative to 2016.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 04, 2019, 05:44:02 pm
Noted political analyst 有馬晴海(Arima harumi) indicated that for the 32 1- member districts, despite the recreation of the Center Left-JCP alliance they would not be able to repeat the 2016 21-11 split between LDP and  Center Left-JCP alliance due the the decrease in the salience of the TPP issue.  He figures it will be 23-9.  I agree and my projection is 24-8.

He has the 32 seats as 14 LDP well ahead 1 Opposition well ahead (I assume 沖縄(Okinawa)) and 17 battleground seats.  17 is surprisingly large.  I tried to come up with this list of 17 where the opposition has a chance or are well ahead and all I came up with

青森(Aomori)
岩手(Iwate)
宮城(Miyagi)
秋田(Akita)
山形(Yamagata)
福島(Fukushima)
山梨(Yamanashi)
新潟(Niigata)
長野(Nagano)
三重(Mie)
滋賀(Shiga)
愛媛(Ehime)
大分(Ōita)

Which is 13.  I find it hard to get 4 more where the opposition has even an nominal chance.  Gun to my head I came up with

佐賀(Saga) - LDP put it its list to focus on
群馬(Gunma) - it is an open seat
徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) - 高知(Kōchi) has an anti-LDP lean  and LDP put it on its list to focus on
鹿児島(Kagoshima) - there is a LDP rebel in the fray

Other than 沖縄(Okinawa) the places the LDP is likely or could lose in my view are the list of 13 above.  The other 4 are long shots. 

佐賀(Saga)  and 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) are only there because LDP said they might be in trouble there.  To give LDP credit back in 2016 愛媛(Ehime) which looked like a sure thing for LDP had the LDP sounding the alarms that they might be in trouble.  In the end LDP narrowly won. This year the same thing might play out where 佐賀(Saga)  and 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) might turn out to be the surprise in terms of how close it became.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 10:44:10 am
First media projection to come  out base on the mega survey I keep on talking about is Asahi whose projections have  historically  pro-LDP lean (making up for its anti-LDP policy house effect)

Medium projection are

          District    PR      Total
LDP         41      18        59
KP            7        7        14
JRP          3         5          8
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        10       11       21
RS            0         1        1
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         5        9
OPPN        6                   6  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

()

Which would produce

LDP+           73
Center Left   34
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          144
Center Left   71
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 35.10% of the seats.  

This is a bit more pro-LDP than pre-campaign polls and projections but still has Center-Left + JCP being able to block Constitutional revision


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 11:20:50 am
岡山(Okayama) poll

PR vote

LDP  28.8
KP     8.9
JRP   0.7
DPP  1.2
CDP  6.8
RS    0.2
SDP  0.3
JCP   3.9
()

Historically LDP-KP outperforms on PR in 岡山(Okayama) around 5%-6% above its national level of support.  The responding rate is so low one cannot gain much from this poll other than the fact that a lot of the 2017 HP vote has gone over the CDP and not DPP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 11:42:23 am
Just be clear that is going on with these media projections which is the story I mostly constructed by reading these polls over each election cycle.

First, 2-3 weeks before the election a common unknown pollster does a massive poll all over Japan with sample sizes of 100K or even 200K respondents.  The raw data are given the various media houses  which pay for this massive effort with the cost spread over all the media houses.  Then each media house uses their own weights plus various ground reports to generate their projections.  These projections are inversely correlated with the political lean of the media house in question.  So anti-LDP media house like 朝日( Asahi), 共同(Kyodo) and 毎日(Mainichi) come out with pro-LDP projections while pro-LDP media houses like 産経(Sankei),  日本経済(Nikkei) and 読売(Yomiuri) came out with anti-LDP projections.  This is mostly overcompensation for house effects and to some extend to lower expectations of their readers so after the election they can claim that the side they are for "exceeded expectations" which is what their readers want to read.  All of them will have initial projections but then adjust them over time which seems to be mostly about herding.

Asahi always seem to come out with their numbers first.  But the others will come out in a day or two.

In 2016 the initial Asahi projection was
()

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              38           19            57
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                19           11           30
PLP               0              0              0
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 2            6              8
Pro-DP Ind     4            0               4

The final result was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5

which meant that in 2016 Ashai overestimated LDP (and JCP as well) a bit relative to real results.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 03:19:57 pm
Yomiuri PR poll (diff from a week ago)

LDP  36 (-4)
KP      6(+1)
JRP    7(+1)
DPP   3(+1)
CDP  10(--)
RS     ??
SDP    1(-1)
JCP     4(--)

LDP loses some ground to JRP but overall not much change.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 03:46:20 pm
Kyodo poll on party support (not PR vote) with diff relative to its last poll right before the 2016 Upper House elections

LDP  35.9(+2.4)
KP     5.4(+0.4)
JRP    3.8(+0.5)
DPP   2.1
CDP   8.6
SDP  0.9 (--)
JCP   3.8(-0.2)

So the Center-Right parties (LDP KP JRP) are gaining relative to 2016.  JCP lost a bit of ground. I suspect DPP+CDP is most likely greater than the 2016 levels of support for DP but cannot be for sure.

It also has breakdown by prefecture
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 03:59:50 pm
共同(Kyodo) projections

          District    PR      Total
LDP         44      21        65
KP            7        7        14
JRP          4         5          9
DPP          2         3         5
CDP        11         9       20
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        2                   2  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

()

Which would produce

LDP+           79
Center Left   28
Third Pole      9
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          150
Center Left   65
Third Pole     16
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 32.24% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision barely misses being able to block  constitutional revision.

Back in 2016 共同(Kyodo)'s first cut projection was

                District        PR           Total
LDP              38           21            59
KP                 6             7             13
ORA               2             3              5
DP                18           10           28
PLP                0            0               0
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 3            6              9
Pro-DP Ind     6            0               6

The final result was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5

So again just like 2016 共同(Kyodo) which is anti-LDP has an even greater pro-LDP bias in its projections relative to anti-LDP 朝日( Asahi) which itself have a smaller pro-LDP bias.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 04:26:35 pm
Both the 朝日( Asahi) and 共同(Kyodo) look fishy to me on the JCP front.  Both has JCP winning 4 district seat.  It seems to me that that is only possible if it beats out JRP in 神奈川(Kanagawa) for its 4th and final seat (which I agree with as I feel the same way) AND JCP beating out CDP for the second seat in  京都(Kyoto) which seems unlikely.  The only other place JCP can win its 4th seat is in 大阪(Osaka) where it can beat out JRP for the 4th and final seat.  But with 朝日( Asahi) and 共同(Kyodo) having JRP winning 3 and 4 district seats respectively this seems very unlikely.  I think both of them are wrong about 京都(Kyoto) but I will look forward to reading their prefecture by prefecture breakdown to see how they get to JCP to having 4 seats.

Also I suspect these projections are probabilistic projections and NOT a sum of medium projections (like UK exit poll projections) so they might not even have 4 seats where the medium case has JCP winning them but JCP having a lot of less than medium cases of winning a seat and they add up to 4.  We will see.

But the main narrative of these polls are clear.  They have LDP JRP and to some extent JCP over-performing at the expense of CDP-DPP with  共同(Kyodo) being more extreme on that front especially with the 1- member districts.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 07:06:38 pm
Assessment of different media houses of the 32 1- member district before and after their processing of the mega poll

                                 Before                                 After
                        LDP  Tossup  Opposition       LDP   Tossup   Opposition
読売(Yomiuri)      16     13           3               17        12            3
日経(Nikkei)        16     14           2               19        11            2
朝日(Asahi)         20       4           8               20         5             7
產經(Sankei)       22       2           8               20         8             4
共同(Kyodo)        22       0         10               22         8             2
()

Depending on the media house it seems the maga poll shifted the projections toward LDP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 07:58:57 pm
富山(Toyama) PR poll

LDP  36.4
KP     4.2
JRP    2.7
DPP   7.2
CDP   8.7
SDP   0.7
JCP    1.9

()

富山(Toyama) has a historical lean where LDP-KP PR vote is around 4.5% above the national average.  The response rate again is low but it seems fairly at par with recent polling nationally.   Main takeaway is the DPP is fairly strong here which seems to indicate that DPP is not doomed yet and that DPP could still do OK in rural areas.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 05, 2019, 09:47:37 pm
沖縄(Okinawa) PR vote poll

LDP   20.7
KP      7.3
JRP     2.1
PNHK  2.0
HRP    0.4
DPP    3.8
CDP    9.3
RS      0.8
SDP    6.4
JCP     6.9
()

LDP of course is much weaker in 沖縄(Okinawa) than rest of Japan.  What is key here is that PNHK actually has 2.0% of the vote. PNHK is overtaking HRP here as the main protest party.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 06, 2019, 05:51:53 am
 朝日( Asahi) poll on how non-aligned voters will vote on PR when compared to the same poll in 2013 and 2016.  LDP around 40% CDP around 20% JRP and JCP around 10%

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 06, 2019, 05:56:51 am
石川(Ishikawa) poll on PR

LDP  43.8
KP     4.3
JRP    1.8
HRP   0.6
DPP   2.9
CDP   7.4
SDP   0.4
JCP   1.9

()

石川(Ishikawa) LDP-KP PR tends to votes around 6.5% greater than national average.  This poll seem pretty position for LDP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 06, 2019, 06:12:31 am
鳥取(Tottori) and 島根(Shimane) poll on PR

鳥取(Tottori)
LDP  37.7
KP     8.1
JRP    ???
DPP   0.6
CDP 11.5
SDP   0.3
JCP   2.5

島根(Shimane)
LDP  45.1
KP     5.4
JRP   ???
DPP   0.9
CDP  6.0
SDP  2.3
JCP   2.2

()

Not sure why JRP is not polled. 

In 鳥取(Tottori) LDP-PR vote tend to be around 9% above national average while in 島根(Shimane) LDP-KP PR vote tend to be around 10.5%-11% above national average


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 06, 2019, 06:29:08 am
徳島(Tokushima) poll on PR

LDP  35.7
KP     5.3
JRP    3.0
PNHK 0.3
DPP   1.7
CDP   7.6
RS     0.1
SDP   0.5
JCP    2.7

()

LDP-KP PR vote tend to be around 5.5% higher than national average in 徳島(Tokushima)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 06, 2019, 11:02:35 pm
毎日(Mainichi) leaking polling on votes share some of which are fairly shocking

Overall JCP and PNHK seems to be doing way better than expected.  I suspect JCP and PNHK performance are exaggerated by this leaked vote share breakdown.

北海道(Hokkaido) (3- member)
LDP  29.8
CDP  28.4
LDP  17.4
JCP   14.0
DPP    7.7
PNHK  2.2
Very surprising that JCP is so much ahead of DPP and within striking distance of LDP

青森(Aomori)
LDP   48.7
CDP   47.5
PNHK  3.8
Very surprising how close CDP made this

岩手(Iwate)
LDP   48.0
OPPN 47.3
PNHK  4.7
Ozawa forces usually under poll so LDP still should lose. Still the LDP incumbent who is a Ozawa rebel is making a race of this

宮城(Miyagi)
CDP  51.3
LDP  44.3
PNHK 4.4
Surprising that the gap is this big. LDP should be slightly ahead here

秋田(Akita)
OPPN  57.9
LDP    39.6
PNHK   2.5
A shock that LDP can be so far behind in a place that should be in the bag for LDP.  The OPPN candidate has deep roots here which it seems is making a large impact

山形(Yamagata)
OPPN   51.9
LDP     45.0
PNHK     3.1
This should be neck-to-neck yet LDP seems well behind

福島(Fukushima)
LDP    56.1
OPPN  38.7
PNHK   5.2
This should be neck-to-neck but LDP incumbent seems to be well ahead as PNHK is doing fairly well

茨城(Ibaraki) (2- member)
LDP    54.6
CDP    20.3
JCP     12.0
JRP      6.2
PNHK   6.9
LDP lead seems surprisingly large.  PNHK result seems to be a shock

栃木(Tochigi)
LDP    54.0
CDP   43.6
PNHK   2.3
Looks about right

群馬(Gunma)
LDP    49.8
CDP    43.7
PNHK   6.5
Looks about right other than very strong PNHK showing

埼玉(Saitama) (4- member)
LDP    31.4
CDP   27.2
JCP    16.1
KP     15.6
DPP     5.3
JRP     2.8
PNHK  1.1
KP seems unusually weak and JCP seems very strong

千葉(Chiba) (3- member)
CDP   33.3
LDP    24.9
JCP    17.8
LDP   14.7
PNHK  8.1
Shock result with JCP beating out LDP for the 3rd and last seat.  It seems PNHK is eating into the LDP vote.  毎日(Mainichi)  still predicting LDP wins the third seat so even they do not believe their own poll

神奈川(Kanagawa) (4- member)
LDP   28.0
CDP   21.5
JCP    16.4
KP     13.5
JRP      8.4
SDP     4.7
DPP     3.4
PNHK   2.1
JCP seems very strong while KP and JRP seems to be underperforming

東京(Tokyo)
LDP   18.9
JCP    17.2
KP     14.1
CDP   10.7
CDP   10.0
LDP     9.6
PNHK   8.6
JRP     4.7
SDP    3.7
DPP    0.7
Very strong JCP performance while JRP and DPP performance is weak with PNHK eating into JRP and DPP vote

新潟(Niigata)
LDP   51.5
OPPN 46.2
PNHK  2.3
Very surprising that LDP is ahead.  The LDP incumbent had several embarrassing gaffs and he is lucky that the LDP did not just deselect him

富山(Toyama)
LDP   62.3
DPP   37.7
Looks about right

石川(Ishikawa)
LDP  60.5
DPP  39.5
Looks about right

福井(Fukui)
LDP   57.3
JCP   31.2
PNHK 11.6
PNHK result is a shock.  It seems PNHK are picking up the anti-LDP anti-JCP vote

山梨(Yamanashi)
LDP     48.7
OPPN   39.4
PNHK   11.9
This should be a tossup but the LDP candidate is strong while the OPPN candidate is weak.  It seems that PNHK is picking up a lot of the anti-LDP vote and giving a walk to LDP

長野(Nagano)
DPP   55.7
LDP   34.8
PNHK  8.7
LAB    0.8
Another PNHK shock.  DPP incumbent was well ahead but it seem PNHK here is picking up a lot of LDP support

岐阜(Gifu)
LDP   52.0
CDP   44.3
PNHK  3.7
Looks about right

静岡(Shizuoka) (2- member)
LDP   35.9
DPP   26.6
CDP   20.5
JCP   12.0
PNHK  5.0
LDP seems to be under-performing

愛知(Aichi) (4- member)
LDP  37.1
CDP  19.8
JCP   14.8
DPP  13.9
KP     7.3
JRP    4.2
SDP   1.2
PNHK 1.3
Shock surge for JCP which pushed KP out of the running.  KP had warned that they might be in trouble here but their result in this poll seems catastrophic

三重(Mie)
OPPN  53.3
LDP    43.1
PNHK  3.7
OPPN is a bit stronger than expected but LDP are the underdogs here

滋賀(Shiga)
LDP   48.9
OPPN 46.0
PNHK  5.1
This is suppose to be neck-to-neck which is what we are seeing

京都(Kyoto) (2- member)
LDP  52.5
JCP   23.4
CDP  18.5
PNHK 5.3
Very strong LDP performance and very weak CDP performance yielding second seat to JCP

大阪(Osaka) (4- member)
JRP    30.3
LDP    17.9
JRP    13.6
KP     13.2
JCP    11.9
CDP    9.5
PNHK  1.7
DPP    0.9  
Looks about right other than CDP under-performed and allowed JCP get ahead of CDP.

兵庫(Hyōgo)
LDP    31.2
JRP     21.1
KP      18.4
CDP    17.0
JCP      8.6
PNHK   3.7
JRP over-performed but CDP withing striking distance  

奈良(Nara)
LDP     51.0  
OPPN  45.9
HRP      3.1
LDP is under-performing here

和歌山(Wakayama)
LDP    71.2
OPPN  28.8

鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane)
LDP    51.4
OPPN  30.9
PNHK  15.4
LDP is under-performing and support going to PNHK as the OPPN candidate has JCP background

岡山(Okayama)
LDP    65.4
CDP    31.9
PNHK   2.7
Looks about right

広島(Hiroshima)
LDP    34.3
OPPN  24.3
LDP    23.8
PNHK  8.8
JCP     7.7
Looks about right but PNHK is way over-performing

山口(Yamaguchi)
LDP    68.8
DPP    26.5
Looks about right

徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi)
LDP     53.2
OPPN   30.2
PNHK   13.7
LDP doing worse than expected but with OPPN has JCP background the vote LDP lost is mostly going to PNHK

香川(Kagawa)
LDP     50.6
OPPN   47.6
PNHK   1.7
A lot closer than expected

愛媛(Ehime)
OPPN   58.1
LDP     37.9
PNHK    1.7
A shock LDP blowout defeat

福岡(Fukuoka) (3- member)
LDP    34.2
KP      23.3
CDP    20.3
JCP      7.9
PNHK   6.8
Looks about right except for PNHK performance

佐賀(Saga)
LDP   55.9
DPP   44.1
Looks about right

長崎(Nagasaki)
LDP   52.5
DPP   40.4
PNHK  7.1
Again strong PNHK performance

熊本(Kumamoto)
LDP   50.7
OPPN 44.1
PNHK  5.2
LDP doing worse than expected

大分(Ōita)
LDP    50.5
OPPN  44.1
PNHK   5.1
Looks about right

宮崎(Miyazaki)
LDP    48.6
CDP   42.5
HRP     8.9
LDP doing worse than expected

鹿児島(Kagoshima)
LDP            49.0
OPPN          27.2
LDP rebel    23.8
LDP rebel cut into both LDP and anti-LDP votes

沖縄(Okinawa)
OPPN  71.9
LDP    24.6
PNHK   3.0
Blowout victory for OPPN which is unlikely.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: kaoras on July 07, 2019, 06:03:23 am
As much as I would love those results they are clearly not happening . I could see the NHK thing but why would the JCP surge so much now? Conditions seems less favorable now with CDP in the picture than in 2013-2016.

Is that poll/projection designed to shore up LDP vote?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 07, 2019, 06:52:57 am
As much as I would love those results they are clearly not happening . I could see the NHK thing but why would the JCP surge so much now? Conditions seems less favorable now with CDP in the picture than in 2013-2016.

Is that poll/projection designed to shore up LDP vote?

I suspect they might be tainted by pro-PNHK elements in these leaks.  In 2016 1- member districts there are cases where HRP won 2%-3% of the vote which represents the protest vote.  This time most of that will go to PNHK.  I fail to see why the PNHK vote will be higher then that.  If you take out the PNHK bias there are clear pro-JCP biases which could be true.  Part of this could also be relative CDP and DPP under-performance which makes JCP stand out in places like 北海道(Hokkaido), 千葉(Chiba),  東京(Tokyo), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 愛知(Aichi), and 京都(Kyoto).  毎日(Mainichi) and 朝日( Asahi) do share the assessment that JCP is doing unusually well in places like It could be in district seats.  Not clear it is the the scale of the the leaked numbers.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 07, 2019, 06:56:11 am
栃木(Tochigi) PR poll

LDP  44.8
KP     5.6
JCP    0.8
DPP   1.8
CDP 14.1
RS    1.7
SDP  0.8
JCP   2.0
()

The old YP vote aligned with 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) plays a big role here.  It seems that this time that vote which went to HP in 2017 is now going to LDP.  RS support here is surprisingly strong


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 07, 2019, 07:02:38 am
A post from me in 2016 about the nature of the KP PR vote.

A look at the way KP PR vote is distributed gives you an idea of the organizational power of KP.  Just to set the stage, it is useful to give a reminder of how the Upper House PR vote works.  A voter could vote for a party or by writing in the name of the candidate (or even writing in the name of the party.)  All of them will accrue to the party which will determine how many seats a party will get.  But which members of a party are elected are based on how many personal votes a candidate on the party list receives.

Now let's take a look at KP:  
1) 7,572,961 accrued to KP which was good for 13.52%

Of which

2) 3,881,290 votes were cast for KP as a party
3) 3,691,671 votes were cast for a candidate of the KP party list

What is interesting is to look at the vote distribution of the votes cast for a party candidate.  Ranked in order of number of votes they are:

942,266
612,066
606,889
605,225
478,175
388,474
  18,571
    7,489
    5,878
    5,666
    4,334
    3,497
    3,377
    3,227
    2,560
    2,444
    1,533

Note that after the 6th candidate the vote completely drops off to close to zero right away.  It is clear what is going on here. When KP was forming its election strategy months ago, they came up with a target number of seats they want to target to win on the PR section.  It was 6.  Then the orders went out to each township in Japan giving orders to each voter that is directly controlled by the KP machine on which exact candidate each person will vote for with a goal that all the votes are targeted should be for one of the 6 candidates.  

About half of the KP votes (around 3.7 million) were cast this way which are usually those who are very active in the  Soka Gakkai.  About the other half (another 3.9 million) are cast by friends and familiy of these hardcare Soka Gakkai members or just some floating voters that might agree with the KP agenda.  

The purpose of doing this is for KP to show its power to the LDP.  The message is: We control down the each voter at least 3.7 million such votes.  They can then influence their friends and family.  Do not cross us. You need us to win.

It is not clear if KP target is 6 or 7 seats but it seems 7 is most likely.  Only 6 of the likely 7 has been targeted in terms of candidate name and will look like this
()

Every KP voter will be told which KP candidate to vote for based on the prefecture they belong to. Who the Greater Tokyo KP PR voters will vote for does not seem clear yet.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 07, 2019, 07:40:06 am
Now that some media projections came out I took my view of where their biases are to update my projection.  Brackets in multi-member districts are the runner up

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (JCP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP (competitive)                                
岩手   Iwate               1             OPPN (competitive)  
宮城   Miyagi               1            CDP  (competitive)    
秋田   Akita                1             OPPN (competitive)                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (competitive)                      
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP (competitive)                      
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP CDP (JCP)                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                            
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP JCP (DPP)                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP (JCP)                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP CDP KP JCP (JRP)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP      
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP KP JCP CDP LDP CDP (JRP)    
新潟   Niigata             1            OPPN (competitive)            
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP  (CDP)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP CDP DPP KP (JCP)                
三重   Mie                   1             OPPN (competitive)                                
滋賀   Shiga                1             OPPN  (competitive)  
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (JCP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP JRP KP JRP (CDP)            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP JRP KP (CDP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP OPPN (LDP)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             OPPN (competitive)                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP (JCP)                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1            LDP (competitive)            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN    
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10
                                                            
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                18                    35.4%               38                     56
KP                   7                     13.1%                7                     14
JRP                  5                      9.7%                3                       6
HRP                 0                      0.5%                0                       0
PNHK               0                      1.3%                0                       0
Euthanasia       0                      0.4%                0                       0
DPP                  3                      5.6%                3                      6
CDP                11                    21.4%              11                    22
SDP                 1                       1.9%               0                       1
RS                   1                      1.9%                0                       1
LAB                 0                       0.2%               0                        0
Olive               0                       0.5%               0                        0
JCP                  4                      8.1%               3                        7
OPPN                                                              9                       9

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          70
Center-Left    39
Third Pole       8
JCP                7

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections

LDP-KP        141
Center-Left    76
Third Pole      15
JCP               13

The Center-Left + JCP would form 36.33% of the 245 member chamber which would be able to block a Constitutional revision.  

Overall I suspect I might be overestimating DPP PR vote a bit at the expense of either JCP or LDP.  I might end up making that adjustment later on as more data comes in.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 07, 2019, 08:26:52 am
Yomiuri PR poll (diff from a week ago)

LDP  36 (-4)
KP      6(+1)
JRP    7(+1)
DPP   3(+1)
CDP  10(--)
RS     ??
SDP    1(-1)
JCP     4(--)

LDP loses some ground to JRP but overall not much change.

Same poll broken down by age.  LDP-KP stronger in the 18-39 and 70+ age range and weaker in the 40-69 age range.
()

Same poll but with history
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 07, 2019, 12:13:15 pm
Chart of the 32 1- member district assessments by 毎日(Mainichi),朝日( Asahi), and 共同(Kyodo)

毎日(Mainichi) has it at 24-8, 朝日( Asahi) has it at 26-6, and 共同(Kyodo) has it at 28-4.  Note that all 3 are anti-LDP media houses are are more likely to have more pro-LDP projections to overcome their reprieved house effect lower expectations. 

()

There are 9 seats on this list that one of the media houses has given the opposition the edge.  They are, in order of likelihood of opposition victory by looking at the 3 projections

愛媛(Ehime)
沖縄(Okinawa)
長野(Nagano)
秋田(Akita)
宮城(Miyagi)
山形(Yamagata)
滋賀(Shiga)
新潟(Niigata)
三重(Mie)

And all 3 has a couple where the opposition are still in the running
岩手(Iwate)
青森(Aomori)
大分(Ōita)

Main surprise there is how far out of the running the opposition is in 福島(Fukushima) and to some extent 山梨(Yamanashi) and how close the opposition is in 香川(Kagawa).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 07, 2019, 06:47:08 pm
TBS poll on PR

LDP   33.7(-7.3)
KP      4.7(+1.5)
JRP     3.9(+1.7)
DPP    0.9(-0.2)
CDP    8.6(+1.6)
SDP    0.6(+0.3)
JCP    2.8(-0.8 )


Back in July 2016 it was

LDP   32(-4)
KP      6(+2)
ORA    4(+2)
DP     11(--)
PLP     1(+1)
SDP    1(--)
JCP     7(+1)

Which seems to have all the blocs around the same other than JCP which is now weaker than in 2016.
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 08, 2019, 04:37:23 am
産経(Sankei) projection

As I predicted, the pro-LDP 産経(Sankei) came out with a more anti-LDP projection, especially on the 1- member districts

          District    PR      Total
LDP         39      20        59
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        11       13       24
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         0        0
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

()

Which would produce

LDP+           72
Center Left   37
Third Pole      7
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          143
Center Left   74
Third Pole     14
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 35.92% of the seats which is enough bloc constitutional revision


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 08, 2019, 04:42:38 am
産経(Sankei) projection from 2016 vs final result

        Proj   Result
LDP    59       55
KP      12      14
ORA     7        7
DP     28       32
PLP      0        1
SDP     1        1
JCP     10       6
OPPN   4        5

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 08, 2019, 11:48:10 am
産経(Sankei) assessment of 1- member districts

Opposition well ahead:
岩手(Iwate) - not a surprise but at odds with other media outlets
秋田(Akita) - big surprise but mostly consistent with other media outlets
新潟(Niigata) - not a surprise  
長野(Nagano) - expected
愛媛(Ehime) - not totally unexpected given recent buzz still somewhat of a shock
沖縄(Okinawa)

Opposition slightly ahead

山形(Yamagata) - not a surprise
宮城(Miyagi) - not a surprise
滋賀(Shiga) - not a surprise
大分(Ōita) - not a surprise but at odds with other media outfits

Tossup
青森(Aomori) - a surprise but consistent with other media outfits
福島(Fukushima) - not a surprise but other media outfits has LDP surprisingly winning with ease
長崎(Nagasaki) - total shock

Rest lean LDP or easy LDP win

Another surprise is that 三重(Mie) did not make the list. 三重(Mie) should really lean opposition given the partisan lean of the prefecture.  Main issue there is the local center-left party is very aligned with Rengo and is hostile to JCP.  But somehow the joint opposition candidate has to marry these two hostile blocks.  This as achieved in 2016  but perhaps it is not working out this time.

So for the 32 1- member by media outfit are (LDP vs Opposition):

産経(Sankei)      22-10
毎日(Mainichi)    24-8
朝日( Asahi)       26-6
共同(Kyodo)       28-4

My current projection is 22-10

The more anti-LDP the media outfit the more pro-LDP projection.  Also note all these projections are from the same raw polling data which means there were a lot of unique "un-skewing" of the raw poll data to get these projections.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 08, 2019, 12:22:22 pm
If seems that RS has placed  山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) behind 2 other "specific quota" RS PR candidates.  As mentioned before allowing "specific quota" is part of a change in election for starting this election where a party can place certain PR candidates at the top making the open list PR not pure open list.  The change was done by LDP to make sure 徳島(Tokushima) and 島根(Shimane)  have someone from their prefectures get elected on the PR list.  RS is using the rule to place 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  on the list.  It is a trick to push up the RS PR vote.  It is pretty much saying to the pro-山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) youth, you have to vote RS on the PR list (as opposed to CDP or JCP) since if you want 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) to be elected RS has to be above around 5.6% of the vote (to win 3 seats).  For RS to get above 5.6% of the vote will be a tall order.  I do admire 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) placing himself a such a risk to push up the RS PR vote.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 08, 2019, 12:44:03 pm
大阪(Osaka) radio station MBS poll on 大阪(Osaka) (4- member) district

The do not give poll numbers so you have to eyeball it but it seems to come out as

JRP  27
LDP  19
CDP 16
JRP  11
KP   11
JCP   6
DPP  4

()

Back in 2016 it was

LDP   20.4% elected
ORA  19.5% elected
KP     18.2% elected
ORA  18.0% elected
JCP   12.2%
DP      9.3%

It seems JRP is doing a bad job distributing its vote (I assume that this will get fixed over the next couple of weeks) while KP has dropped a lot (KP always gets it vote out.)  In the meantime JCP has collapsed and have hone over to CDP.  DPP candidate is weak (he is a Sri Lankan immigrant academic)  so DPP vote going to CDP is not a surprise.  So this poll shows CDP has a shot at winning but will require a JCP and DPP collapse.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 08, 2019, 02:19:31 pm
Based on these media projections one can map out how Center-Right and Center-Left voters should tactically vote in certain key prefectures:

                                   Right                              Left
北海道(Hokkaido)  Weaker LDP candidate              JCP
千葉(Chiba)          Weaker LDP candidate              JCP
神奈川(Kanagawa)          JRP                                JCP
東京(Tokyo)                   JRP                    Weaker CDP candidate
愛知(Aichi)                      KP                                JCP
大阪(Osaka)           Very unclear                        Unclear
                         (LDP or KP or                      (JCP or CDP)
                          Weaker JRP candidate)
兵庫(Hyōgo)              Unclear                             CDP
                            (KP or JRP)
広島(Hiroshima)   Weaker LDP candidate            OPPN

大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) are both unclear.

 In 大阪(Osaka) there are rumors that JRP surge has ate into the LDP vote and LDP could crash out of top 4.  But there are also surveys that say that KP support is dropping and going to JRP.  There are further surveys that say that JRP vote is not evenly split between its two candidates.   It is equally unclear on the Center-Left side with different surveys saying that JCP or CDP is closer to winning the 4ht seat.

In 兵庫(Hyōgo) it is clear on the Center-Left side that CDP is closer than JCP to winning the third seat.  On the Center-Right side there are conflicting reports on weather KP or JRP is in a stronger position. 

In both   大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) the center-right forces are looking to complete a 4-0 and 3-0 sweep like in 2016 and getting the vote distribution right is hard.




Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 08, 2019, 06:30:04 pm
The Japan-ROK trade dispute seems to be a possible October Surprise for Abe/LDP.  The triggering event is that a ROK court found that Japanese firms were liable for compensation for alleged forced labor in Korea during WWII.  Despite claims to the otherwise it is clear that Abe retaliated by blocking the export of key materials critical to the ROK tech industry. 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/majority-of-japanese-approve-of-tokyos-move-poll

The winner out of this besides Abe/LDP might be PRC where ROK tech industry might have to shift their production in response.  That is until perhaps Trump raises tariffs on PRC in the future. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 08, 2019, 07:44:18 pm
Recently PNHK activists have been handing out

()

Which according to

https://soranews24.com/2017/12/18/nhk-repelling-stickers-free-for-anyone-wanting-to-keep-away-japans-public-tv-fee-collectors/

Quote
According to Tachibana, NHK collectors have been advised to not approach any home that has a sticker from his Protect the Nation from NHK Party because its inhabitants may be “problematic.” And so, if your house is identified as such, then the malevolent spirits of public access will simply pass over your home.

The sticker reads:

Protect the Nation from NHK Party – Takashi Tachibana
NHK Repelling Seal
Affix this sticker to the entrance of your home and NHK visits will completely stop. But in the case the visits continue please contact the number provided below and NHK will definitely be chased off.
Takashi Tachibana – 090-3350-0267

https://japantoday.com/category/national/nhk-fee-collector-leaving-threatening-notes-on-people%E2%80%99s-doorsteps

Also points out

Quote
Every country has its own way of generating money for their public broadcasters but in Japan, NHK is largely left to fend for themselves and have outsourced a team of bill collectors to do the dirty work for them.

On one hand, they largely get the job done. Recent estimates say over 80 percent of Japanese residents pay their monthly TV license fees – although this rate shot up after the Japanese Supreme Courts backed NHK’s right to demand money from virtually anyone, even if they don’t watch NHK.

On the other hand, in many instances the conduct of these collectors has been compared to that of an organized crime group. Homes have been vandalized, and sexual assaults have occurred. As a result, many people never answer their door out of fear that it’s an NHK collector on the other side.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 09, 2019, 05:41:11 am
JNN/TBS projection which I had to reverse engineer

          District    PR      Total
LDP         41      19        60
KP            6        7        14
JRP          4         5          9
DPP          3         2         5
CDP          9       11       20
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           3         5        8
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   33
Third Pole      9
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   70
Third Pole     16
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.29% of the seats which is barely enough block constitutional revision


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 09, 2019, 05:48:02 am
産経(Sankei)  did release their raw data for PR.  I made a chart of their projected seat and implied PR vote

Party   Raw Data    Seat projection    implied PR vote
LDP       42.4%           20                      37.7%
KP          9.6%             7                      13.2%
JRP         5.9%             4                        7.5%
DPP        4.8%             2                        3.8%
CDP      23.1%           13                      24.5%
RS          1.0%            0                      ~1.4%?
SDP        2.3%            0                      ~1.4%?
JCP         8.5%            4                        7.5%
OTHERS  2.6%

産経(Sankei) correctly assumed that some of the LDP PR vote will really be for KP.  The other adjustments seems a bit strange.  They tend to think that SDP and DPP will under perform polling while JRP will over perform polling   


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 09, 2019, 10:17:40 am
大阪(Osaka) radio station MBS also did a survey of 兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member) and without giving number had the sequence being

LDP
JRP
CDP
KP

which is a shocking defeat of KP in addition to KP being driven to 5th place in 大阪(Osaka)
This is a pattern this year as 毎日(Mainichi) had a shocking projection that KP will be driven to 5th place in 愛知(Aichi) by JCP.

I am skeptical that this is what will transpire.  KP is always under-polled and these survey results might galvanize  the KP turnout machine.  On the other hand the KP % of the VAP has been slowing declining over the last couple of decades.  Over time KP will face trouble especially if turnout picks up.  2019 might be that year.  Most likely not.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 09, 2019, 10:56:50 am
Magazine Nikkan Gendai continues the trend of weekly magazines that come out with scary and significant LDP setback projections (mostly to boost sales at newsstands)

On its front page it has an headline that LDP will suffer setbacks in at least 14 districts
()

In detail they have

LDP could lose
青森(Aomori) - not a shock, LDP could lose here
福島(Fukushima) - not a shock, this is suppose to be neck-to-neck but recent media projections has LDP winning in a landslide
山梨(Yamanashi) - not a shock as this is suppose to be neck-to-neck but in the run up to the election this was viewed as pretty safe LDP
三重(Mie) - this is suppose to lean opposition but recent polling gives LDP the edge
奈良(Nara),香川(Kagawa),長崎(Nagasaki) - shock, LDP is suppose to be way ahead here
大分(Ōita - on paper tossup but in the run up to the election the LDP was seen as having the edge

Competitive
岩手(Iwate) - opposition should have edge but recent polling gives LDP the edge
宮城(Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata),新潟(Niigata) - makes sense as these are tossups
滋賀(Shiga) - on paper lean LDP but in the run up to the election is seen as tossup

Opposition edge
秋田(Akita) - shock as this is suppose to be solid LDP, recent polling also show opposition edge
長野(Nagano), 沖縄(Okinawa) - not a surprise
愛媛(Ehime) - was suppose to be tossup but recent polling shows a clear opposition edge

Mutli-member districts where LDP could suffer losses
北海道(Hokkaido) - LDP should win 2 out of 3 but some polling show JCP running strong and could take one of the 2 LDP seats
東京(Tokyo) - LDP should win 2  out of 6 seats but perhaps JRP could come on to take out the weaker LDP candidate
千葉(Chiba) LDP should win 2 out of 3 seats but a strong JCP could take out the weaker LDP candidate
大阪(Osaka) - LDP should win 1 out of 4 seats but CDP or even JCP could come in to squeeze them out
広島(Hiroshima) - LDP was trying to win both seat which was not seen as likely.  Recent polling suggest LDP has a stolid shot.  This projection claims this is not in the bag.
()

Most likely the more non-mainstream of these projections will not take place.  They are just taking the medium media projection and adding an anti-LDP spin.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 09, 2019, 12:12:33 pm
Decision tree on who to vote for on the PR slate based on 朝日( Asahi) polling

()

Do you support the increase of consumption tax to 10% later in 2019? YES
    Is national sovereignty and a rising PRC an issue for you?  YES
        Do you support 池田 大作 (Ikeda Daisaku) President Emeritus of Soka Gakkai? YES
            Vote KP
       Do you support 池田 大作 (Ikeda Daisaku) President Emeritus of Soka Gakkai? NO
           Vote LDP
   Is national sovereignty and a rising PRC an issue for you?  NO
       Do you support Reiwa as era name? YES
           Vote CDP
       Do you support Reiwa as era name? NO       
           Vote JCP
Do you support the increase of consumption tax to 10% later in 2019? NO
    Are you happy with current funding method of pension system? YES
        Are you for ending nuclear power ? YES
            Do you trust RS's 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) YES
                Vote RS
           Do you trust RS's 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) NO
                Are you for a female emperor? YES
                    Do you support Reiwa as era name? YES
                        Vote CDP
                    Do you support Reiwa as era name? NO       
                        Vote JCP       
               Are you for a female emperor? NO
                     Are you for the new 2015 security legislation? YES
                          Vote JRP
                     Are you for the new 2015 security legislation? NO
                          Vote DPP
        Are you for ending nuclear power ? NO
            Are you for the new 2015 security legislation? YES
                Vote JRP
            Are you for the new 2015 security legislation? NO
                Vote DPP           
    Are you happy with current funding method of pension system? NO     
        Is national sovereignty and a rising PRC an issue for you?  YES
            Do you support 池田 大作 (Ikeda Daisaku) President Emeritus of Soka Gakkai? YES
                Vote KP
           Do you support 池田 大作 (Ikeda Daisaku) President Emeritus of Soka Gakkai? NO
               Vote LDP
        Is national sovereignty and a rising PRC an issue for you?  NO
            Do you support Reiwa as era name? YES
                Vote CDP
            Do you support Reiwa as era name? NO       
                Vote JCP       
               
 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 09, 2019, 08:03:55 pm
CDP is complaining about a Abe dirty trick.  In various Abe's stump speeches he keeps on referring to CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio), as  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) of the 民主(Democratic Party).  The reason why this incorrect name is important is that when the Japanese voter votes, he/she writes the name of the candidate on the ballot for the district race and writes the name or party name on the PR section.  When they write the names, acceptable abbreviations are accepted.   For example LDP is called 自由民主党 but often called 自民党, 自民 or even 自.  So if a voter writes on the PR section "自由民主党" "自民党" "自民" or "自" they call gets counted toward LDP.  DPJ or 民主党 was the main opposition party for years until DPJ became DP in 2016.  民主 was always an acceptable name on the PR section for DPJ and for DP.

In 2017 CDP or 立憲民主党 was the only successor party of DP running that had "民主" in the party name as HP was called 希望.  So in 2017 CDP ads called on voters to write "民主" on the ballot to vote for CDP since many former DPJ/DP voters were used to voting "民主"
()

Now in 2019 there is another successor party to DPJ which is DPP or 国民民主党.  Problem here is 国民民主党 also has "民主"  in it so a vote on the PR section for "民主" will count as a null vote.  So CDP now has ads asking its voters to write down "りっけん" which is Hiragana for 立憲 or Constitutional since the word "憲" is fairly hard to write.
()

Now with Abe constantly talking about how 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) is the leader of 民主(Democratic Party) it sort of sends a subliminal message to old DPJ and now CDP voters to just enter the voting booth to vote for "民主" which will ended up counting as null.

Pretty clever trick by Abe.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: xelas81 on July 09, 2019, 09:50:29 pm
CDP is complaining about a Abe dirty trick.  In various Abe's stump speeches he keeps on referring to CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio), as  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) of the 民主(Democratic Party).  The reason why this incorrect name is important is that when the Japanese voter votes, he/she writes the name of the candidate on the ballot for the district race and writes the name or party name on the PR section.  When they write the names, acceptable abbreviations are accepted.   For example LDP is called 自由民主党 but often called 自民党, 自民 or even 自.  So if a voter writes on the PR section "自由民主党" "自民党" "自民" or "自" they call gets counted toward LDP.  DPJ or 民主党 was the main opposition party for years until DPJ became DP in 2016.  民主 was always an acceptable name on the PR section for DPJ and for DP...

But 自民党 could also mean Liberal Party, name used by Ichirō Ozawa lead party (twice).
Since Liberal party merged to DPP, it doesn't matter for this election but when it existed 自民党 could mean both LP and LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 10, 2019, 05:08:49 am
CDP is complaining about a Abe dirty trick.  In various Abe's stump speeches he keeps on referring to CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio), as  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) of the 民主(Democratic Party).  The reason why this incorrect name is important is that when the Japanese voter votes, he/she writes the name of the candidate on the ballot for the district race and writes the name or party name on the PR section.  When they write the names, acceptable abbreviations are accepted.   For example LDP is called 自由民主党 but often called 自民党, 自民 or even 自.  So if a voter writes on the PR section "自由民主党" "自民党" "自民" or "自" they call gets counted toward LDP.  DPJ or 民主党 was the main opposition party for years until DPJ became DP in 2016.  民主 was always an acceptable name on the PR section for DPJ and for DP...

But 自民党 could also mean Liberal Party, name used by Ichirō Ozawa lead party (twice).
Since Liberal party merged to DPP, it doesn't matter for this election but when it existed 自民党 could mean both LP and LDP.

It really comes down to convention.  The Japanese election commission goes with general societal convention.  In theory  LDP's full name, 自由民主党, has the word Democratic (民主) in it too.  But since no one ever uses the word 民主 in relation to LDP, all vote historically for 民主 has been for DPJ or its successor parties where there is only one that has the word 民主 (DP in 2016 and CDP in 2017).  As for LP (自由党), since there is a name space collision with LDP, by convention they are refereed to as Free(由).  Also no one ever refers to LDP as 自由 only.  Perhaps as 自 or 自民.  So a vote for 由 is or  自由党 is clearly counted for as LP.  A vote for 自由 is tricky.  While LP is on the ballot (which is really in 2001 since after PLP was renamed to LP again in 2016 LP has never appeared in the PR ballot as it did not run in 2017 to back HP and now it merged into DPP) I think a vote for 自由 would be counted as LP while when LP is not on the ballot a vote 自由 most likely would be counted for LDP or maybe NULL.  I am not sure about that one.

Back in 2016 this was a controversy as well.  In the run up to the 2016 Upper House elections DPJ merged with JIP to form Democratic Party or DP (民進党).   Since most of the old DPJ voters would be voting for this party DP lobbied hard with the Japanese election commission to make sure a vote for 民主 counts toward DP and not NULL.  In the end the Japanese election commission relented and ruled that it is clear in society eyes that DP is the successor party to DPJ even though DP does not have words 民主 in its name a vote for 民主 counts toward DP.

Of course now the tricky part is that we have 2 successor parties of DPJ both with the word 民主 in them.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 10, 2019, 05:19:23 am
JX survey of several key multi-member districts

東京(Tokyo) (6- member): LDP JCP KP LP CDP CDP (JRP).  The two CDP candidates bring up the rear but are well ahead of JRP

神奈川(Kanagawa) (4- member): LDP CDP KP JRP (JCP).  JRP and JCP neck-to-neck for the 4th and last seat.  JRP ahead of JCP by a very tiny margin.

大阪(Osaka) (4- member): JRP LDP JRP KP (JCP) (CDP).  JCP and CDP both neck-to-neck in their battle to challenge the weaker JRP and KP to get above the line.

兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member): LDP KP JRP (CDP).  3 way tied between KP JRP and CDP for 2nd to 4th place.  On paper KP and JRP just edge out CDP but it is very close.





Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 10, 2019, 05:31:12 am
https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/sangiin/20190710-OYT1T50171/

Points out that election commission FAQ indicated that

民主 -> NULL
国 or 国民民主 -> DPP
自 -> LDP
公 -> KP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 10, 2019, 05:50:53 am
LDP ad on how the voting works.  There are two ballots.  First ballot for district LDP asks you write the LDP candidate name on the.  One the second ballot for PR LDP asks for a vote for one of its PR candidates or just vote LDP.
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 10, 2019, 01:59:34 pm
One thing I noticed about all these media projections is for 2- member 京都(Kyoto) all of them have JCP incumbent beating out CDP for the second seat. 

I find this hard to believe. I think CDP is bound to beat JCP for the second seat for sure even if the JCP candidate is an incumbent.  The reason is since 1995, the LDP+JCP vote share for 京都(Kyoto) Upper house district seat has never exceeded 61.7%. That means the sum of all non-LDP non-JCP parties will have at least 38.3%.  The only way for JCP to win is for the non-LDP non-JCP vote to be fragmented like in 2013.  This time around, other than LDP and JCP, only CDP is running (plus micro parties like NPHK and new Leftist micro-party Olive).  Even if we give PNHK and Olive 5% of the vote CDP is destined to win at least 30% of the vote if not higher.  It is almost impossible for JCP to win more than 30% of the vote and most likely will not even cross 25% (JCP won around 20% in 2016 and 2013.) 

In fact all this talk about JCP beating out CDP will ensure a large scale tactical voting by KP and JRP PR voters to CDP to stop JCP.
 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 11, 2019, 11:07:23 am
Updated Chart of the 32 1- member district assessments by 毎日(Mainichi),朝日( Asahi),  共同(Kyodo) , and now 産経(Sankei

毎日(Mainichi) has it at 24-8, 朝日( Asahi) has it at 26-6, 共同(Kyodo) has it at 28-4, and 産経(Sankei) has it at 22-10.  

()

There are 11 seats on this list that one of the media houses has given the opposition the edge.  They are, in order of likelihood of opposition victory by looking at the 4 projections

沖縄(Okinawa)
長野(Nagano)
愛媛(Ehime)
秋田(Akita)
宮城(Miyagi)
滋賀(Shiga)
新潟(Niigata)
山形(Yamagata)
岩手(Iwate)
大分(Ōita)
三重(Mie)

And there are 2 more where the opposition has a chance

青森(Aomori) and 福島(Fukushima)

Main surprise is how close the opposition are in 長崎(Nagasaki) and 香川(Kagawa).  Also it is a surprise how far off the opposition is in 山梨(Yamanashi) which used to be a battleground prefecture but more and more is viewed as lean LDP.
 



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 11, 2019, 08:11:39 pm
奈良(Nara) poll on PR vote

LDP    27.7
KP       5.9
JRP    14.1
PNHK   3.0
DPP     0.6
CDP    4.2
Olive   1.6
JCP     1.7

JRP and the new parties (PNHK and Olive) are polling very well.  奈良(Nara) is in Kinki so JRP is suppose to do well here. JRP saw a lot of its support drop here in 2017.  Looks like a lot of that is coming back.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 12, 2019, 05:09:52 am
産経(Sankei) poll for 大阪(Osaka) district

JRP  21.5
JRP  19.7
LDP  18.0
KP    10.3
JCP    9.3
CDP   9.0
DPP   1.1

Which shows a 3 way battle between KP JCP and CDP for 4th and last seat.  KP under-polls the most so this poll should imply a clear victory for KP to win the 4th seats especially with JCP and CDP neck-to-neck meaning that tactical voting is impossible.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Cape Verde on July 12, 2019, 06:03:08 am
産経(Sankei) poll for 大阪(Osaka) district

JRP  21.5
JRP  19.7
LDP  18.0
KP    10.3
JCP    9.3
CDP   9.0
DPP   1.1

Which shows a 3 way battle between KP JCP and CDP for 4th and last seat.  KP under-polls the most so this poll should imply a clear victory for KP to win the 4th seats especially with JCP and CDP neck-to-neck meaning that tactical voting is impossible.

If CDP candidate withdraws in Osaka and JCP candidate withdraws in Hyogo, it would be a win-win scenario. However, neither party's organization would agree to such scenario.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 12, 2019, 07:44:01 am
産経(Sankei) poll for 大阪(Osaka) district

JRP  21.5
JRP  19.7
LDP  18.0
KP    10.3
JCP    9.3
CDP   9.0
DPP   1.1

Which shows a 3 way battle between KP JCP and CDP for 4th and last seat.  KP under-polls the most so this poll should imply a clear victory for KP to win the 4th seats especially with JCP and CDP neck-to-neck meaning that tactical voting is impossible.

If CDP candidate withdraws in Osaka and JCP candidate withdraws in Hyogo, it would be a win-win scenario. However, neither party's organization would agree to such scenario.

That would be the logical thing to do but as you said the organisational imperative of both parties makes this impossible.  DPP's strategy of nominating a weak candidate (a Sri Lankan professor) in 大阪(Osaka) is another way of saving face, getting some PR out of it, but in the end encouraging tactical voting, is another way.  Neither JCP nor CDP would go for this when both can make a claim that their candidate COULD win.  It was the same thing in 2016 for both prefectures and 神奈川(Kanagawa) where inability for the Center-Left parties and JCP to coordinate in multi-member districts threw away seats.  The de facto coordination of Center-Right parties (LDP KP and JRP) is actually a lot better.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 12, 2019, 07:48:07 am
The same 大阪(Osaka) based MBS poll that had CDP beating out KP in 大阪(Osaka) for the 4th seat in 大阪(Osaka) and CDP beating out KP in 兵庫(Hyōgo) for the 3rd seat also has JCP slightly ahead of CDP in 京都(Kyoto) and OPPN ahead of LDP in 滋賀(Shiga).  The 京都(Kyoto) polling result matches other media polls but I do not buy it as it just violates basic partisan fundamentals.   




Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 12, 2019, 05:43:45 pm
This weekend there will be around round of projection some by media outfits that  did not come out with one yet. ニコニコ or  NicoNico which is Japan's youtube historically has been the most accurate of the media projections.  Historically the projections tend to a) herd and b) shift somewhat toward the LDP.  Given the recent controversy over trade tensions between Japan and ROK I suspect that this weekend's projections/polling will shift somewhat toward LDP, usually from the more anti-LDP projections. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 12, 2019, 05:46:28 pm
There is a boycott movement in ROK against Japanese goods which is gaining in level of support over trade tensions

ROK polling as approval/disapproval of Japan at 12/77 which is a record low
()

All this news will only shift support toward the LDP although some will be at the expense of JRP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 12, 2019, 06:09:09 pm
NHK polling in the run up to the Upper House elections indicates that turnout will be low.  The number of polled that said they had "Great Interest" (20%) and "Likely to Vote" (55%) has dropped to record low levels.

This should be good for KP and JCP and to some extent LDP and bad the the Center-Left parties
()

Most likely as a result the LDP will avoid the "Year of the Boar" (亥年) effect.  Every Upper House election held in the Year or the Dog has seen big LDP setback (2007 1995) or minor ones (1983 1971).  The idea is the in the Year of the Dog the Unified Local Election are held in April in the same year as the Upper House elections held in July.  The LDP cadre local machines which mobilized for the Unified Local Elections are too tried to mobilize again especially for the Upper House which historically has been seen as less important than prefecture elections (where all the pork is dolled out) and the Lower House elections.

This time around most likely LDP will perform around the same as 2016 or even slightly better which is pretty good given the historical trend.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 13, 2019, 06:51:13 am
Latest  共同(Kyodo) poll has LDP gaining ground from last week but not making gains on topics like Constitutional Revision

PR vote
LDP   31.0(+2.2)
CDP    7.2(-1.8 )

District vote
LDP-KP      32.2(+0.9)
Opposition  21.8(+1.5)

Support for Constitutional Revision 34.2(-0.8 )
Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval 46.5(-1.1)/40.3(-3.8 )

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 13, 2019, 03:54:43 pm
More complete results from 共同(Kyodo) poll on PR

LDP   31.0(+2.2)
KP       5.6(--)
JRP     4.4(+1.2)
DPP    2.5(+0.9)
CDP    7.2(-1.8  )
RS      1.1
SDP    0.8(-0.4)
JCP     2.0(-0.5)

A clear shift away from the Left toward the Right.  Could also partly be between Center-Left voters are not responding due to the recent Japan-ROK trade crisis.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2019, 06:19:16 am
時事(Jiji) projection.  They are not making it clear but reading their prefecture by prefecture analysis and eyeballing their chart one gets

1- member district LDP-Opposition 24-8

          District    PR      Total
LDP         40      19        59
KP            7        6        13
JRP          3         5          8
DPP          3         3         6
CDP        11       11       22
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           3         5        8
OPPN        7                   7  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

()

Which would produce

LDP+           72
Center Left   36
Third Pole      8
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          143
Center Left   73
Third Pole     15
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 35.51% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc would get the numbers to block constitutional revision.

Politically Jiji is sort of like AP which is mostly neutral.  

Back in 2016 時事(Jiji)  final projection was mostly on the mark in terms of final seat count

                District        PR           Total
LDP              38           17            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                19           13           32
PLP                0            0               0
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 2            6              8
Pro-DP Ind     4            0               4

The final result was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2019, 06:33:48 am
Turnout rates in Upper House elections since 1965 by age cohort.  Over time turnout for 70+ if anything have risen while 50s and 60s dropped a bit.  The fall in turnout for the 20s 30s 40s are more dramatic over time.

2016 was the first time people ages 18-21 could vote.  Their turnout ended up being higher than the 20s turnout rate

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2019, 08:22:18 am
朝日(Asahi) poll on PR (change from June poll)

Overall
LDP  35(-5)
KP     6
JRP    6
DPP   2(+1)
CDP 12(-1)
RS     1
SDP   2
JCP    6(+1)

Among independents
LDP 16
KP    4
JRP   6
DPP  2
CDP 12
RS    2
SDP  3
JCP   3

Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval 42(-3)/34(+1)

()

There were talk that a RS surge will most likely drive SDP below the threshold to get seats.  This poll seems to say otherwise.  JCP support seems to be holding up well.  Independents seems to lean CDP and JRP.

2016 朝日(Asahi) poll on PR 1 week before the election

LDP   35  (-3)
KP       7  (--)
PJK      1
ORA     7 (+3)
DP     16 (+1)
PLP      1
SDP     1
JCP      6  (--)

Which makes 2016 poll almost identical with 2019 if you add CDP and DPP vote share together.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2019, 02:16:57 pm
日経(Nikkei) projection is a total cop out with very wide ranges

          District     PR         Total
LDP     34-46    19-21     53-68
KP        3-7        7-8       10-15
JRP       1-6        3-4        4-10
DPP      3-4        1-2         4-6
CDP     6-13      9-11      15-24
SDP       0          0-1         0-1
Others 2-10       0-1        2-11  (includes RS and Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

()

The projection is very negative on KP and to some extent JRP.  

Reading their writeup and eyeballing their PR seat projection chart I was able to construct their medium projection

()


1- member district LDP-Opposition 24-8

          District    PR      Total
LDP         42      20        62
KP            5        7        12
JRP          4         4         8
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        10       11       21
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         5        9
OPPN        6                   6  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   33
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   70
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.69% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc would barely get the numbers to block constitutional revision.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2019, 02:37:12 pm
読売(Yomiuri) projection. 

()

           District       PR          Total
LDP     38-41       17-21       55-62
KP        6-7           6-8         12-15
JRP       3-5          4-6           7-11
DPP      2-3          2-3            4-6
CDP     8-12         8-12        16-24
RS         0            0-2           0-2
SDP       0            0-2           0-2
JCP      2-4          4-6           6-10
OPPN   3-8                          3-8   (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Reading their analysis a rough guess on median projection would be

          District    PR      Total
LDP         41      19        60
KP            7        7        14
JRP          4         5         9
DPP          3         2         5
CDP          9       10       19
RS            0         1        1
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           3         5        8
OPPN        7                   7  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   33
Third Pole      9
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   70
Third Pole     16
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.29% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc would barely get the numbers to block constitutional revision.

Back in 2016 読売(Yomiuri) final projection was tilted toward LDP as well as JCP

()

                District        PR           Total
LDP              40           20            60
KP                 6             8            14
ORA               3             3             6
DP                16           11           27
PLP                0            0              0
SDP               0             1             1
JCP                4            5              9
Pro-DP Ind     4            0              4

The final result was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2019, 03:01:10 pm
毎日(Mainichi) projection shift from last week

             7/7             7/14
LDP      53-64         51-62
KP       11-14          10-14
JRP       5-9              6-10
DPP      4-6               4-6
CDP    19-25           19-26
RS        0-1               1-3
SDP      0-1               0-0
JCP      6-13             6-13
OPPN    4-10            5-10  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

This projection shows LDP losing ground and RS having a big surge.

()

A rough guess on median projection would be

          District    PR      Total
LDP         38      19        57
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         5         8
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        11       11       22
RS            0         2        2
SDP          0         0        0
JCP           5         4        9
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           70
Center Left   37
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          141
Center Left   74
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 36.33% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc would  get the numbers to block constitutional revision.

It also has analysis of the 32 1- member seats

It has the opposition ahead in
岩手(Iwate)
宮城(Miyagi)
山形(Yamagata)
新潟(Niigata)
長野(Nagano)
愛媛(Ehime)
沖縄(Okinawa)

And has it as neck-to-neck in
青森(Aomori)
秋田(Akita)
三重(Mie)
滋賀(Shiga)
鹿児島(Kagoshima)

鹿児島(Kagoshima is the real shock here where it seems the LDP rebel is taking away enough LDP votes to give the opposition a shot here according to the 毎日(Mainichi)  projection
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2019, 03:35:50 pm
Both 毎日(Mainichi) and 読売(Yomiuri) says that PNHK might actually get a seat on the PR slate which means that their projection have PNHK PR vote share close to 1.8%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2019, 04:17:16 pm
読売(Yomiuri) poll on level of interest Large (Deep Blue) and Some (light Blue) by age cohort.  It is clear that the level of interest is higher with age.
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 14, 2019, 05:42:55 pm
読売(Yomiuri) poll on support/opposition to Constitutional Revision to legalize SDF.

Overall               34/41
LDP PR voter      55/22
KP PR voter        38/34
CDP PR voter      13/75
DPP PR voter      23/62
JCP PR voter       11/79
JRP PR voter       48/38
SDP PR voter      13/77

So LDP PR voters are overall for.  KP and JRP are lukewarm and rest against.
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 15, 2019, 06:33:32 am
Abe cabinet support mostly constant during the campaign season
()

LDP support falling but a lot of that is going to KP and JRP
()
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 15, 2019, 08:21:37 am
Final 大阪(Osaka) based MBS projections for 近畿(Kinki) region.  They have some graphics but I have to eyeball them to get a sense of vote share

大阪(Osaka) (4- member)
JRP  19
JRP  17
LDP  16
JCP  11
KP   10
CDP  9

兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member)
LDP 24
JRP  21
CDP 19
KP   18
JCP   6

京都(Kyoto) (2- member)
LDP 36
CDP 18
JCP  16

滋賀(Shiga)
LDP   40
OPPN 40

奈良(Nara)
LDP   39
OPPN 31

和歌山(Wakayama)
LDP    47
OPPN  32

I still think KP will pull through in 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) while CDP should win in 京都(Kyoto)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 15, 2019, 09:43:34 pm
Of all the multi-member districts 3- member 兵庫(Hyōgo) seems the most interesting.   This is because it seems the LDP is ahead but KP JRP CDP seems to be locked in a three way tie behind LDP.  This leads to very different media projections.  They are respectively

        朝日       共同       毎日         産経                  時事      日経       読売
     (Asahi)  (Kyodo) (Mainichi) (Sankei)   (JNN)   (Jiji)   (Nikkei)  (Yomiuri)
1      LDP       LDP        LDP         LDP        LDP    LDP      LDP         LDP
2       KP        JRP         JRP         JRP        JRP     JRP      CDP          KP
3      JRP        KP          KP          CDP         KP      KP       JRP         CDP
4      CDP      CDP        CDP          KP        CDP    CDP       KP         JRP
5      JCP       JCP         JCP         JCP         JCP    JCP       JCP         JCP

So all we know is that LDP is first and JCP is last.  KP JRP CDP all appear as 2nd 3rd or 4th in different projections.



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 16, 2019, 03:05:56 am
how much is actually riding on the election result?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 16, 2019, 04:46:48 am
岩手(Iwate) PR vote poll

LDP   28.5
KP      6.0
JRP     2.6
DPP    6.9
CDP  20.2
SDP   5.5
JCP    7.8
()

Seems to imply that some media projections that LDP is ahead of the OPPN candidate in the district seat is unlikely to be true unless the LDP candidate who is an old Ozawa loyalist could eat into the Opposition PR vote.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 16, 2019, 04:49:09 am
how much is actually riding on the election result?

Not that much.  Only issue at stake is can Abe hold on to his very tenuous 2/3 majority (LDP KP JRP) in the Upper House for a possible Constitutional  Revision in the future.  Even if he succeeds it is unlikely it will work given the political capital that Abe will have to pay to pull it off.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 16, 2019, 06:02:04 am
産経(Sankei) projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         40      20        60
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        11       12       23
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        7                   7  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)
()

Difference versus last week's projection: LDP gained a district seat from OPPN and SDP gained a PR seat from CDP.

Which would produce

LDP+           73
Center Left   36
Third Pole      7
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          144
Center Left   73
Third Pole     14
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 35.51% of the seats which is enough bloc constitutional revision


産経(Sankei) projection

As I predicted, the pro-LDP 産経(Sankei) came out with a more anti-LDP projection, especially on the 1- member districts

          District    PR      Total
LDP         39      20        59
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        11       13       24
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         0        0
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

()

Which would produce

LDP+           72
Center Left   37
Third Pole      7
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          143
Center Left   74
Third Pole     14
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 35.92% of the seats which is enough bloc constitutional revision


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 16, 2019, 06:10:29 am
Pretty funny article on PNHK

https://japantoday.com/category/politics/anti-nhk-party-accuses-japan%E2%80%99s-public-broadcaster-of-concealing-'car-sex-adultery'-live-on-nhk

Due to NHK being a public TV, NHK also had to give airtime to PNHK leader 立花孝志(Takashi Tachibana) when then went on a 18 minute rampage attacking NHK.
()

The first two minutes of his speech was

Quote
“So, to all of you sitting in front of your TVs: Crush NHK. And to all of the NHK employees here in the studio: Crush NHK.

It’s easy.

For those who don’t pay the NHK license fee, ‘Crush NHK’ means to stop NHK’s broadcasting signal or, to put it in technical terms; implement a scrambling of the NHK signal.

Crush NHK.

Why should we crush NHK? It’s because NHK is hiding the fact that its male and female announcers have had car-sex adultery on the street.

Everyone – it’s car-sex adultery on the street!

A magazine reported the fact that a male and female newscaster with an evening program called ‘Marugoto Yamanashi’ had car-sex adultery on the street. However, NHK is still covering up this incident. It happened three years ago.

The male presenter still works with NHK, but it seems that the female presenter was fired. If this isn’t sexual harassment and power harassment, then I don’t know what is.

NHK has not yet explained this scandal to viewers, and on the day after the incident was revealed, the two hosts who had car-sex adultery on the road were replaced by newscasters who were thought not to engage in car-sex adultery on the street.

The reason for replacing the hosts was never explained to the viewers. Well, I wonder, how dare they not explain such a serious incident to the viewers, as if nothing happened?

Adultery!

On the street!

Car-sex!

Are we going to allow this?

One more time:

Adultery!

On the street!

Car-sex!

I’ll say it again: It’s car-sex adultery on the street!

Anyway, crush the car-sex-adultery-on-the-street-concealing NHK.”

The article ends with

Quote
Perhaps they (NHK) should assemble the Protect NHK from the Protect the Nation from NHK Party Party and then give themselves airtime on their own channel to rebut all these claims – not only because it’d be hilarious, but because it’s their democratic right to do so.

What is also would be funny is if PNHK building momentum actually allows them to win 1 PR seat.  Then NHK will have to report on this election night and NHK would be obligated to interview PNHK leader 立花孝志(Takashi Tachibana)  on his thoughts on PNHK's election success who I am sure will then go on another anti-NHK rant.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 16, 2019, 11:48:41 am
JX poll on 東京(Tokyo) 6- member district

They just have the ranking and did not disclose any vote share info

1 LDP
2 JCP
3 KP
4 LDP
5 CDP
6 CDP
7 JRP

Thist mostly matches other media polls although a few does have JRP ahead of CDP for the 6th and last seat.  Most likely CDP pulls this out.  What is key is that the various other center-left candidates DPP RS SDP and Olive does not eat into the CDP vote that much.

On the Right the main danger is an ex-MP from the 1980s and 1990s with an LDP background that led an anti-tax moment is also running (at age 87) could also pull in some JRP votes.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 16, 2019, 04:18:44 pm
朝日(Asahi) poll on in certain prefecture on "Is the economy better or worse"

Rural 1-member districts clearly have a more negative view of the economic situation than urban 東京(Tokyo) and 大阪(Osaka)

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 16, 2019, 06:23:42 pm
Final 共同(Kyodo) projections.  Shift away from LDP in a clear sign of herding

          District    PR      Total
LDP         42      19        61
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         5          8
DPP          3         3         6
CDP        11       10       21
RS            0         1        1
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        5                   5  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)
()

Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   34
Third Pole      8
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   71
Third Pole     15
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.69% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc will barely able to block  constitutional revision.



共同(Kyodo) projections

          District    PR      Total
LDP         44      21        65
KP            7        7        14
JRP          4         5          9
DPP          2         3         5
CDP        11         9       20
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         4        8
OPPN        2                   2  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

()

Which would produce

LDP+           79
Center Left   28
Third Pole      9
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          150
Center Left   65
Third Pole     16
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 32.24% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision barely misses being able to block  constitutional revision.

Back in 2016 共同(Kyodo)'s first cut projection was

                District        PR           Total
LDP              38           21            59
KP                 6             7             13
ORA               2             3              5
DP                18           10           28
PLP                0            0               0
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 3            6              9
Pro-DP Ind     6            0               6

The final result was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5

So again just like 2016 共同(Kyodo) which is anti-LDP has an even greater pro-LDP bias in its projections relative to anti-LDP 朝日( Asahi) which itself have a smaller pro-LDP bias.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 17, 2019, 05:45:32 am
Same 朝日(Asahi) PR vote poll broken out by age

LDP strongest in the 18-40 age group.  JRP strongest in the 20-30 age group while CDP and JCP strongest in the 60+ age groups
()

朝日(Asahi) poll on PR (change from June poll)

Overall
LDP  35(-5)
KP     6
JRP    6
DPP   2(+1)
CDP 12(-1)
RS     1
SDP   2
JCP    6(+1)

Among independents
LDP 16
KP    4
JRP   6
DPP  2
CDP 12
RS    2
SDP  3
JCP   3

Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval 42(-3)/34(+1)

()

There were talk that a RS surge will most likely drive SDP below the threshold to get seats.  This poll seems to say otherwise.  JCP support seems to be holding up well.  Independents seems to lean CDP and JRP.

2016 朝日(Asahi) poll on PR 1 week before the election

LDP   35  (-3)
KP       7  (--)
PJK      1
ORA     7 (+3)
DP     16 (+1)
PLP      1
SDP     1
JCP      6  (--)

Which makes 2016 poll almost identical with 2019 if you add CDP and DPP vote share together.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 17, 2019, 05:59:20 am
At this stage all the media polls have converged toward the pro-Constitutional revision bloc (LDP KP JRP) missing the 2/3 majority by 3-8 seats.  If so then this is a victory of ex-Emperor Akihito over PM Abe.

After the 2016 Upper House elections despite under-performing a bit the pro- Constitutional revision bloc (LDP KP and JRP plus some pro-revision independents)  did well enough to capture a 2/3 majority in the Upper House.  At this stage Emperor Akihito whose anti-Constitutional revision is implicitly clear decided to throw a spammer in the works.  Right after the 2016 Upper House elections  Emperor Akihito indicated his desire to abdicate.  Part of the reason besides his age was that he did not want to be around as Emperor if Abe goes through with Constitutional revision.  But part of his strategy, it seems, is to make the observation that the  pro- Constitutional revision 2/3 majority was based on the 2013 LDP-KP landslide plus JRP YP doing reasonably well.  If the 2016 Upper House election result was replicated in 2019 then the pro- Constitutional revision bloc 2/3 majority goes away.  So Emperor Akihito indicated that he wanted to abdicate on public TV putting pressure on PM Abe to use up political time and capital to draft laws to allow this to take place.  This was a delaying tactic to run down the clock until the 2019 Upper House elections which it seems to have worked.   We will find out Sunday.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 17, 2019, 07:03:17 am
産経(Sankei) weekend  magazine Zakzak  which had a fairly anti-LDP projection a month ago to sell magazines now, as expected, herds with the rest of the media projections

          District    PR      Total
LDP         41      19        60
KP            7        7        14
JRP          3         5          8
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        10       10       20
RS            0         1        1
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         5        9
OPPN        6                   6  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   33
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   70
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.69% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc will barely able to block  constitutional revision.

Sankei Shimbun magazine Zakzak came out with their current projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         37      18        55
KP            7        7        14
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          2         3         5
CDP        13       12       25
RS            1         1        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           2         4        6
OPPN        9                   9  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

()

Which would produce

LDP+           69
Center Left   42
Third Pole      7
JCP               6

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          140
Center Left   79
Third Pole     14
JCP              12

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.14% of the seats.

By reverse engineering this projection the seats that this project calls that are at odds with CW are

1) CDP wins 青森(Aomori) over LDP when CW has this as very likely LDP
2) CDP wins 宮城(Miyagi) and OPPN wins 滋賀(Shiga) when CW has both of them lean LDP
3)  OPPN wins 愛媛(Ehime) when CW has it as tossup but slight lean LDP
4) CDP wins third seat in 兵庫(Hyōgo) over JRP when CW has as lean JRP for the third and last spot.  I happen to agree with this projection on this one.

Overall this projection as a somewhat anti-LDP lean.  But that is normal from a pro-LDP media outfit like Sankei Shimbun.  Most Japanese media projections tend to overcompensate for their house effect.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 17, 2019, 08:09:00 am
Yomiuri chart on the "Year of the Boar" effect where turnout (black line) is lower (due to LDP cadres not having energy and resources mobilize LDP turnout right after the Unified Local Elections) and LDP seat share (pink) is also lower.  To be fair this is mostly a 1995 and 2007 phenomenon as 1971 and 1983 were only slight setbacks for LDP.

One historical lesson here is lower turnout this Sunday might not hurt the Center-Left parties as much as lower turnout might also be lower LDP turnout.

()

NHK polling in the run up to the Upper House elections indicates that turnout will be low.  The number of polled that said they had "Great Interest" (20%) and "Likely to Vote" (55%) has dropped to record low levels.

This should be good for KP and JCP and to some extent LDP and bad the the Center-Left parties
()

Most likely as a result the LDP will avoid the "Year of the Boar" (亥年) effect.  Every Upper House election held in the Year or the Dog has seen big LDP setback (2007 1995) or minor ones (1983 1971).  The idea is the in the Year of the Dog the Unified Local Election are held in April in the same year as the Upper House elections held in July.  The LDP cadre local machines which mobilized for the Unified Local Elections are too tried to mobilize again especially for the Upper House which historically has been seen as less important than prefecture elections (where all the pork is dolled out) and the Lower House elections.

This time around most likely LDP will perform around the same as 2016 or even slightly better which is pretty good given the historical trend.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 18, 2019, 10:00:46 am
In 6 member Tokyo district, CDP should be able to win 2 out of 6 (it should be LDP 2 CDP 2 KP 1 JCP 1) as long as the Center-Left vote is concentrated and evenly distributed between the 2 CDP candidate.  The CDP plan which it s communicating is that Center-Left voters in Eastern Tokyo vote for 1 of the CDP candidate while the Western Tokyo Center-Left voters should vote for the other CDP candidate.

()

In other multi-member districts the LDP must be doing something similar but LDP usually do it not by geography but around key clientelist organisations where different LDP factions focus on different LDP candidates where there is more than 1 LDP candidate.   


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 18, 2019, 10:51:02 am
Chart of projections of some key media outlets

This chart maps the various OPPN winners to the likely party they will caucus with (CDP or DPP)

 
                          LDP  KP  Ruling bloc  CDP  DPP  JCP  JRP  SDP  RS
朝日((Asahi)          59   14      73           21     5     9     8      1     1
毎日((Mainichi)      56   14      70           15   15      6    6       1    1
読売 (Yomiuri)       58    13      71          29     5      8    9      1     1
産経((Sankei)        59    13     72           24     5      8    7       1    1
日経((Nikkei)         61    12     73           19     5      9    7      1     1
松田(Zakzak)         55    14     69           22    5      9     8      1     1
文春(Bunshun)      59     14     73           21    5      9     7      1     1

()

There seems to be some sort of mapping mistake by 毎日((Mainichi) on how the OPPN winners will align.

文春(Bunshun) which is a magazine is the most right wing of the media outlets have, as usual, the most anti-LDP projection.

Note that missing on the list would be 共同(Kyodo) and  時事(Jiji)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 18, 2019, 11:23:48 am
Final NHK poll before the election has Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval at 45/33

Party support is

LDP 34.2
KP    4.3
JRP   3.1
DPP  1.5
CDP  6.0
SDP  0.5
JCP   3.2
()

This gives us the Aoki index [Approval Rating of the Cabinet + Support for the ruling Party] of 79.2 which historically has been on the boundary of a minor ruling bloc win to a significant ruling bloc win.

Using NHK numbers the history of  Aoki index are

-----------------------

Late June 2000 - General election - Aoki index (Average June and July numbers) at 50.5 - LDP-KP barely won over a divide opposition (JCP LP and DPJ).  Any sort of opposition coordination and LDP-KP should have been beaten

April 2001 - Aoki Index at 28.4 - LDP PM Mori forced out of leadership of LDP and out of office

Late July 2001 - Upper House election - Aoki Index (Average of July and August numbers) at 108.2 - massive Koizumi LDP-KP-NCP landslide.  From a vote share point of view greatest landslide in modern Japanese election history

Nov 2003 - General election - Aoki Index at 88.6 - Solid LDP-KP win which is somewhat blunted by the a united DPJ since LP merged into DPJ before the election

July 2004 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 76.1 - LDP-KP barely won and was seen as a setback for Koizumi

Sep 2005 - General election - Aoki Index at 100.4 - LDP-KP Koizumi landslide despite creation of several LDP splinter parties

July 2007 - Upper House election - Aoki Index at 69.8 - LDP-KP defeat at the hands of DPJ led opposition mostly due to opposition unity against LDP.  

Sept 2007 - Aoki index at 61.4 - Abe forced out of office as LDP President and with that the PM as well.

May 2008 - Aoki index at 46.6 - Fukuda forced out of office as LDP President and with that the PM as well

Late Aug 2009 - General election -  Aoki Index (Average of August and Sept  numbers) at 43.8 - LDP-KP landslide defeat by DPJ led opposition alliance

May 2010 - Aoki index at 41.8 - Hatoyama forced out of office as DPJ President and with that PM as well

July 2010 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 68.8 - DPJ defeated by LDP-KP mostly due to inability of DPJ to lock on allies like SDP or YP or even KP.  

August 2011 - Aoki index at 34.4 - Kan forced out of office as DPJ President and with that PM as well

Dec 2012 - General election - Aoki index at 36.1 - DPJ destroyed by LDP-KP in a landslide defeat.  JRP and YP added to the damage by splitting the anti-LDP vote

July 2013 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 99.5 - LDP-KP landslide victory as JRP and YP loses vote share to LDP-KP

Dec 2014 - General election - Aoki index at 85.1 - LDP-KP landslide victory despite DPJ-JIP tactical alliances

Aug 2015 - Aoki index at 71.7 - Abe's low point so far due to new Security Law.  LDP held firm and Abe bounced back.

July 2016 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 88.3 - significant LDP-KP victory whose scale was somewhat blunted by DP-JCP alliances in 1- member districts

July 2017 - Aoki index at 65.7 - A series of scandals, gaffs and debacle in the Tokyo Prefecture election drives Abe into the worst crisis since his 2012 comeback.  

Oct 2017 - Aoki Index at 68.2 - A divided opposition hands the LDP-KP a significant victory but still losing some ground relative to 2014

History of Aoki Index 2000-2017
()

-----------------

Aoki Index  at 79.2 has LDP-KP stronger than in 2017 but weaker than in 2016.  A even more divided opposition in 2019 relative to 2016 most likely means a replication of 2016 Upper House elections result in 2019 even with  Aoki Index weaker in 2019 than 2016.   The 2019  Aoki Index is similar to 2004's  Aoki Index  of 75.1 where DPJ fought LDP-KP to a draw.  But 2004 the non-JCP Opposition was pretty much totally occupied by DPJ.  Today's picture is a more cluttered.  


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 19, 2019, 03:34:32 pm
Links to different coverage Sunday night (Japan)

NHK https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/sangiin/2019/
NTV http://www.ntv.co.jp/election2019/
Asahi https://www.tv-asahi.co.jp/senkyo/
TBS   http://www.tbs.co.jp/senkyo2019/
TX     https://www.tv-tokyo.co.jp/ikegamisenkyo/
Sankei https://www.fnn.jp/senkyo/

NHK exit polls will come out at 7am EST Sunday
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 20, 2019, 06:43:31 am
Magazine Nikkan Gendai which always has the most the most anti-LDP of projections came out with their final projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         36      18        54
KP            7        6        13
JRP          4         4          8
DPP          4         3         7
CDP        10       12       22
RS            0         2        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           5         4        9
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

JCP at 5 district seats while JRP has 4 district seats would imply that JRP captures the 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) but JCP wins the 3rd seat of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP.  The 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) is viewed as a tossup between JCP and JRP but JCP winning the 3rd seats of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP would be a upset.  DPP at 4 district seats means that they will pull off an upset over LDP in 佐賀(Saga).  Of course RS at 2 PR seats is also a shocking RS surge.

()

Which would produce

LDP+           67
Center Left   40
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          138
Center Left   77
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.55% of the seats and easily blocking Constitutional version.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 20, 2019, 06:48:25 am
2016 Nikkan Gendai projection was

Final 日刊ゲンダイ (Nikkan Gendai) projection.  

Nikkan Gendai has, in this cycle, heen the most negative on LDP.  Now even it has abandoned me in projecting a fairly large LDP PR vote, mostly partly based on a collapse of the ORA vote.  At this stage I am pretty much alone in projecting a LDP-KP PR vote share that is not close to 50%

()

1- seats LDP-opposition 23-9

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.0%                38                     56
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 3                    6.0%                  1                       4
DP                 11                  22.0%               22                     33
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 2                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 158, 4 less than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 164 which is 2 more than the 2/3 majority.

The final result in 2016 was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5

So in 2016 they actually were the only media outlet that got the PLP result of getting 1 PR seat correct and other than overestimating JCP were pretty accurate


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Cape Verde on July 20, 2019, 07:22:20 am
Magazine Nikkan Gendai which always has the most the most anti-LDP of projections came out with their final projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         36      18        54
KP            7        6        13
JRP          4         4          8
DPP          4         3         7
CDP        10       12       22
RS            0         2        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           5         4        9
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

JCP at 5 district seats while JRP has 4 district seats would imply that JRP captures the 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) but JCP wins the 3rd seat of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP.  The 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) is viewed as a tossup between JCP and JRP but JCP winning the 3rd seats of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP would be a upset.  DPP at 4 district seats means that they will pull off an upset over LDP in 佐賀(Saga).  Of course RS at 2 PR seats is also a shocking RS surge.

()

Which would produce

LDP+           67
Center Left   40
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          138
Center Left   77
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.55% of the seats and easily blocking Constitutional version.

Or JCP can win in Kyoto or Osaka (incumbency advantage). Every pundit seems to believe that JCP will win at least 2 district seats, Tokyo and Saitama. I think Kanagawa is a toss-up while a 3rd seat in Chiba or Hokkaido is beyond reach.

As stated earlier, the worst scenario for Japanese left is both RS and SDP getting around 1.5%, therefore failing to win a PR seat. Meanwhile Yamamoto Taro placed two other PR candidates on top of the PR list. This is a bold move since RS party needs to win at least 5~6% of the PR vote to elect 3 PR seats.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 20, 2019, 07:26:31 am
As of 7/19, early voting was 13.30% of the VAP.  At this stage in 2016 early voting rate was 12.43%.  In 2016 the final early voting rate was 15.00% and in 2017 early voting surged due to the incoming storm reached 20.01%.  Most likely early voting will be in the 15%-16% range.  It seems overall turnout in 2019 will be similar to 2016 which would be slightly higher than one would expect given level of interest.

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 20, 2019, 07:43:45 am
Magazine Nikkan Gendai which always has the most the most anti-LDP of projections came out with their final projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         36      18        54
KP            7        6        13
JRP          4         4          8
DPP          4         3         7
CDP        10       12       22
RS            0         2        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           5         4        9
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

JCP at 5 district seats while JRP has 4 district seats would imply that JRP captures the 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) but JCP wins the 3rd seat of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP.  The 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) is viewed as a tossup between JCP and JRP but JCP winning the 3rd seats of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP would be a upset.  DPP at 4 district seats means that they will pull off an upset over LDP in 佐賀(Saga).  Of course RS at 2 PR seats is also a shocking RS surge.

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Which would produce

LDP+           67
Center Left   40
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          138
Center Left   77
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.55% of the seats and easily blocking Constitutional version.

Or JCP can win in Kyoto or Osaka (incumbency advantage). Every pundit seems to believe that JCP will win at least 2 district seats, Tokyo and Saitama. I think Kanagawa is a toss-up while a 3rd seat in Chiba or Hokkaido is beyond reach.

As stated earlier, the worst scenario for Japanese left is both RS and SDP getting around 1.5%, therefore failing to win a PR seat. Meanwhile Yamamoto Taro placed two other PR candidates on top of the PR list. This is a bold move since RS party needs to win at least 5~6% of the PR vote to elect 3 PR seats.

For JCP to win 5 seats we look at JCP prospects
1) 東京(Tokyo) - for sure
2) 埼玉(Saitama) - for sure
3) 京都(Kyoto) - very likely (I happen to disagree but I agree this is CW)
4) 神奈川(Kanagawa) - tossup with JRP
5) 千葉(Chiba) - long shot
6) 北海道(Hokkaido) - long shot
7) 大阪(Osaka) - long short

For JRP to win 4 seats we look at JRP prospects
1) 大阪(Osaka) - for sure
2) 大阪(Osaka) - very likely
3) 兵庫(Hyōgo) - likely
4) 神奈川(Kanagawa) - tossup with JCP
5) 東京(Tokyo) - less likely put a bit better than long shot

Assuming JRP does not win 東京(Tokyo) then for JRP to be at 4 seats then JRP has to win 神奈川(Kanagawa) which means that if JCP wins 5 seats then they must have won 千葉(Chiba) and 北海道(Hokkaido).  The reason why 大阪(Osaka) is not a likely win based on these projections are JRP has 4 seats which means they most likely won both 大阪(Osaka) seats.  KP has 7 seats which means KP wins an 大阪(Osaka) seat.  That leaves LDP for JCP to take an 大阪(Osaka) seat from which seems very unlikely.  What is different about 大阪(Osaka) and  千葉(Chiba)/北海道(Hokkaido) is that in 大阪(Osaka) LDP nominated 1 candidate and is looking to win just 1.  In 千葉(Chiba)/北海道(Hokkaido) LDP is trying to win 2 out 3 seats.  There is risk of LDP vote not being evenly distributed as well as KP PR voter defection which gives JCP a chance to sneak in.

At a high level what is frustrating about some of these media projections is that they do no disclose district level projections leaving me to triangulate the results.

Another alternative interpretation of JCP 5 JRP 4 projection would be
JRP wins   大阪(Osaka)  大阪(Osaka)  兵庫(Hyōgo) 東京(Tokyo)
JCP wins 東京(Tokyo) 埼玉(Saitama)  京都(Kyoto)  神奈川(Kanagawa) and 1 out of ( 千葉(Chiba) and 北海道(Hokkaido))


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Foucaulf on July 20, 2019, 12:27:14 pm
Not sure if this was linked yet, but (left-leaning) twitter analyst @miraisyakai published their ratings of all the prefectural seats. In reality there are two types of prefectural seats: the multi-member seats where the opposition can usually get a seat, and the single-member seats in smaller prefectures where they get wiped out. Note that I used "smaller:" there is serious variance in the population of single-member seats, from 2.3M in Miyagi to 790K in Fukui.

Let's look at the single-member seats first. Abe's LDP swept these when the seats were last up in 2013, getting 29/31. Redistricting meant there are now 32 instead of 31:



This graph aggregates seat projections from the national newspapers, plus projections from local papers, into a rating on the far left. The "safe/lean" seats would be Okinawa, Nagano and Ehime.

The "tilt/toss-up" seats are Akita, Yamagata, Niigata, Miyagi, Shiga and Iwate. In this setup, the next closest seat (Aomori) looks like a "tilt LDP" rating. So anywhere from 4-9 seats are possible, and those are the seats to watch.

With the multi-member districts, the most interesting ones are those with an odd number of candidates, since inefficient vote-splitting between a camp's candidates can squeeze one of them out for the last seat. There are the LDP/JCP duels for the third seat in Hokkaido and Chiba (the Hokkaido one not being too likely), and a battle between CDP and KP for third in Hyōgo. JCP is also looking for the fourth seat in Osaka versus KP.

JRP/Ishin no Kai may or may not get the last seat in Kanagawa and Tokyo, squeezing out JCP/CDP candidates respectively. There's also 2-member seat Hiroshima, a stalwart right-wing prefecture but will face vote-splitting from two LDP candidates versus an opposition independent. Kyoto also has a face-off between the JCP and CDP candidates.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 20, 2019, 05:03:13 pm
Not sure if this was linked yet, but (left-leaning) twitter analyst @miraisyakai published their ratings of all the prefectural seats. In reality there are two types of prefectural seats: the multi-member seats where the opposition can usually get a seat, and the single-member seats in smaller prefectures where they get wiped out. Note that I used "smaller:" there is serious variance in the population of single-member seats, from 2.3M in Miyagi to 790K in Fukui.

Let's look at the single-member seats first. Abe's LDP swept these when the seats were last up in 2013, getting 29/31. Redistricting meant there are now 32 instead of 31:



This graph aggregates seat projections from the national newspapers, plus projections from local papers, into a rating on the far left. The "safe/lean" seats would be Okinawa, Nagano and Ehime.

The "tilt/toss-up" seats are Akita, Yamagata, Niigata, Miyagi, Shiga and Iwate. In this setup, the next closest seat (Aomori) looks like a "tilt LDP" rating. So anywhere from 4-9 seats are possible, and those are the seats to watch.

With the multi-member districts, the most interesting ones are those with an odd number of candidates, since inefficient vote-splitting between a camp's candidates can squeeze one of them out for the last seat. There are the LDP/JCP duels for the third seat in Hokkaido and Chiba (the Hokkaido one not being too likely), and a battle between CDP and KP for third in Hyōgo. JCP is also looking for the fourth seat in Osaka versus KP.

JRP/Ishin no Kai may or may not get the last seat in Kanagawa and Tokyo, squeezing out JCP/CDP candidates respectively. There's also 2-member seat Hiroshima, a stalwart right-wing prefecture but will face vote-splitting from two LDP candidates versus an opposition independent. Kyoto also has a face-off between the JCP and CDP candidates.

I read and several other bloggers often. 

At this stage tossups are:

神奈川(Kanagawa) - tossup between JRP and JCP for the 4th and last seat
兵庫(Hyōgo) - 3 way tied between JRP KP and CDP for the 2nd and 3rd seat.  CW gives JRP and then KP a slight edge over CDP
広島(Hiroshima) - CW has it as tossup between LDP winning both seats for an OPPN candidate winning one of the two seats


Districts where there is a clear lean but an upset is still very possible:

岩手(Iwate) - CW has OPPN with the edge but it could go LDP
東京(Tokyo) - CW has second CDP candidate ahead of JRP for 6th and last seat but it could go JRP
滋賀(Shiga) - CW has OPPN with the edge but it could go LDP


Districts where there is a clear likely result but there might be a chance for upset

北海道(Hokkaido) - JCP has a small chance of winning 3rd seat from LDP
宮城(Miyagi) - LDP has a small chance of beating CDP out of a likely win
千葉(Chiba) - JCP has a small chance of winning 3rd seat from LDP
愛知(Aichi) - JCP has a tiny chance of winning 4th seat from KP
三重(Mie) - OPPN has a small chance of beating LDP out of a likely win
京都(Kyoto) - CDP has a small chance of beating out JCP for 2nd seat
大分(Ōita) - OPPN has a tiny chance of beating LDP out of a likely win.

Again, the most fun should be the 3 way tied for 2nd and 3rd place in 兵庫(Hyōgo).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 20, 2019, 05:09:14 pm
Polls just opened across Japan which is 7AM.  Voting will end 8PM when exit polls comes out.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 20, 2019, 09:27:07 pm
So far turnout seems to be around 1%-2% behind 2016 levels.  Early voting is higher so turnout might be equal to 2016 but most likely lower.  So that is good news for LDP KP JCP and bad news for CDP. 

On the other hand in Western Japan there is heavy rain.  This is where LDP and KP are strong so LDP and KP might lose some ground on the PR vote due to the heavy rain in areas of their strength.  DPP is relatively stronger in Western Japan when compared to CDP so they are net losers as well because of the rain.
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 04:28:37 am
As of 4PM total turnout looks like

                        2016            2019
10am                7.92             5.65
11am              13.22             9.70
2pm                22.54           18.02
4pm                27.25           22.72
Early vote        15.05           16.01
Final turnout    54.69

Looks like final turnout should be around 51%.  Mostly good news for KP JCP LDP  and perhaps SDP and JRP.  For sure hurts CDP


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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 04:52:14 am
Final prediction with turnout likely to be around 51%

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (JCP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP (competitive)                                 
岩手   Iwate               1             OPPN (competitive) 
宮城   Miyagi               1            CDP  (competitive)     
秋田   Akita                1             OPPN (competitive)                                 
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (competitive)                       
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP (competitive)                     
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP CDP (JCP)                           
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                           
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                 
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP JCP (JRP)                     
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP (JCP)                   
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP CDP KP JRP (JCP)           
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP     
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP JCP KP LDP CDP CDP (JRP)   
新潟   Niigata             1            OPPN (competitive)             
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                 
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                 
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                 
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                             
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                 
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP  (CDP)                         
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP DPP CDP KP (JCP)               
三重   Mie                   1             LDP (competitive)                               
滋賀   Shiga                1             OPPN  (competitive) 
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (JCP)   
大阪   Osaka               4             JRP LDP KP JRP (CDP)           
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP JRP KP (CDP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                 
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                 
鳥取 Tottori                 
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                 
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP           
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP LDP (OPPN)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                 
徳島   Tokushima   
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                 
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                 
愛媛   Ehime              1             OPPN (competitive)                                   
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP (JCP)                     
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                 
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                 
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                 
大分   Ōita                  1            LDP (competitive)             
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                 
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                 
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN     
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9
                                                           
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                19                    35.5%               40                     59
KP                   7                     13.4%                7                     14
JRP                  5                     10.1%                4                       9
HRP                 0                      0.5%                0                       0
PNHK               0                      1.5%                0                       0
Euthanasia       0                      0.3%                0                       0
DPP                  2                     4.8%                3                       5
CDP                10                   18.9%               11                    21
SDP                 1                       2.1%               0                       1
RS                   1                      2.3%                0                       1
LAB                 0                       0.2%               0                        0
Olive               0                       0.5%               0                        0
JCP                 5                       9.9%               2                        7
OPPN                                                              9                       9

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          73
Center-Left    35
Third Pole       9
JCP                7

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections

LDP-KP        144
Center-Left    72
Third Pole      16
JCP               13

The Center-Left + JCP would form 34.69% of the 245 member chamber which would barely be enough to block a Constitutional revision. 

The main controversial part of my prediction is I am sticking to CDP beating JCP for the second seat in 京都(Kyoto) despite pattern of lower turnout which should favor JCP based on KP JRP and LDP tactical voting for CDP to beat JCP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 05:30:31 am
時事(Jiji) political commentator 加藤清隆(Kiyotaka Katō) projects LDP with 65 seats and KP with 14 seats based on turnout patterns.  This most likely means LDP at 20 PR seats and LDP winning the 32 single member districts something like 28-4.  If you assume the drop in turnout are mostly Center-Left opposition then he is most likely right.  I suspect some of the drop in turnout might also contain LDP voters.  But for sure the turnout pattern favors LDP-KP and of course JCP. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 05:32:46 am
NHK count
https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/sangiin/2019/

Asahi count
https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/senkyo2019/

These two are usually the fastest and a super set of the two gives the fastest picture


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 05:37:27 am
As of 6PM total turnout looks like

                        2016            2019
10am                7.92             5.65
11am              13.22             9.70
2pm                22.54           18.02
4pm                27.25           22.72
6pm                32.49           27.30
Early vote        15.05           16.01
Final turnout    54.69

Looks like final turnout should be around 50.5%.  Mostly good news for KP JCP LDP  and perhaps SDP and JRP.  For sure hurts CDP

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 05:39:45 am
If turnout ends up around 50-50.5 I think that will be the lowest turnout in any modern Japanese election. It will be even lower than 2013 Upper House election.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 05:56:29 am
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

Live now


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:02:45 am
NHK exit poll (100K sample)

LDP-KP 67-77
LDP-KP-JRP 76-88
LDP 55-63
KP 12-14
CDP 16-22
JCP 5-8
JRP 8-11
DPP 5-7
RS 1-3
OPPN 6-10
SDP 0-1


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:03:42 am
NHK exit poll 32 1- member district

LDP 22-26
Opposition 6-8


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 06:04:05 am
That's supermajority territory isn't it?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:05:27 am
That's supermajority territory isn't it?

Yes, only at the upper range.  And that is only because JRP really over performed


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:06:55 am
For 東京(Tokyo), NHK exit poll has JRP pulling off an upset and winning a seat from the 2 CDP candidates.  Of course it seems like a 3 way tie between JRP LDP and CDP for the 5th and 6th seats


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:08:08 am
If exit polls are right then my theory that the lower turnout also included some LDP turnout drop-off is most likely correct.  If LDP turnout was in full force and we had these turnout figures then it would be a monster LDP-KP victory.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:09:51 am
It seems that there is a RS surge.  They are at 1-3 seats which means they could be as high as 3%-5% to get 2 PR seats.  Most likely that hurt JCP and CDP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 06:14:43 am
why does the media use red for the LDP and not green?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:16:01 am
NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     29        18      47
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      1          3       4
OPPN   2                   2

8 more PR seats to allocate.  LDP seems like it will get to 20 for sure for PR

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

6 more PR seats to allocate


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:19:01 am
NHK 東京(Tokyo) exit poll

For the 5th and 6th seats it has LDP > JRP > CDP

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:20:31 am
NHK 大阪(Osaka) exit poll

It has JRP JRP LDP KP winning
Just like 2016 CDP and JCP evenly split the vote to allow the Center-Right parties a clean sweep

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 06:23:14 am
the LDP gambit to win 2 of 3 seats in Hokkaido paid off.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:24:00 am
Unknown set of non-NHK exit polls

()
()
()

LDP 59
KP   14
JRP  10
CDP 18
DPP   5
JCP   7
SDP  1
RS    3
OPPN 7

LDP 59 KP 14 is identical to my prediction


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:25:04 am
兵庫(Hyōgo) exit poll

CDP is ahead of KP for 3rd seat

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:27:35 am
For 神奈川(Kanagawa) NHK has not called it yet but Asahi has called the 4th seats for JRP over JCP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:30:09 am
Asahi exit poll for 兵庫(Hyōgo) has LDP in 4th ???!!

()

I always said that 兵庫(Hyōgo) was going to be the most fun


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:32:46 am
Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     30        18      48
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      1          3       4
OPPN   2                   2

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

5 more PR seats to allocate


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:37:05 am
the LDP gambit to win 2 of 3 seats in Hokkaido paid off.

That is not much of a gambit.  In a 3 seat district LDP-KP will of course contest 2.  I guess LDP nominating an ex-governor for one of its 2 candidates did draw in a good part of the non-LDP vote which plus the poor DPP candidate and aversion for JRP and KP PR voters to vote JCP produces a LDP win of 2 seats

LDP trying to win 2 out 2 seats in 広島(Hiroshima) would be the real gambit.    As of now it is not clear if that gambit worked


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:39:29 am
福島(Fukushima) was called for LDP fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor OPPN.  Likewise 愛媛(Ehime) was called for OPPN fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor LDP.  The personal vote played a big role in both


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Cape Verde on July 21, 2019, 06:39:38 am
Is there a live ANN news website?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:42:05 am

Not one I could find as far is live steam is concerned

results page is

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/senkyo2019/


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 06:42:25 am
福島(Fukushima) was called for LDP fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor OPPN.  Likewise 愛媛(Ehime) was called for OPPN fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor LDP.  The personal vote played a big role in both
why is the LDP losing Nagano?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Cape Verde on July 21, 2019, 06:43:07 am

I guess only NHK offers a live news?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:44:14 am
福島(Fukushima) was called for LDP fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor OPPN.  Likewise 愛媛(Ehime) was called for OPPN fairly quickly even though fundamentals should favor LDP.  The personal vote played a big role in both
why is the LDP losing Nagano?

Prefecture has strong JCP and anti-LDP vote.  DPP incumbent popular and LDP incumbent choose not to run.  In 2013 this was a 2- member district which is now a 1- member district


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:45:00 am

Yes.  I am sure if you somehow pay and/or live in Japan that would be a different story


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:46:27 am
Asahi exit poll for 長崎(Nagasaki) shows a very close race but LDP should take it.  How close this is if this exit poll is right is a shock

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:47:47 am
Asahi has RS at 2 PR seats ... wow.  That would mean they are at 3.5% at least and perhaps 4.0%.  So in 2017 JCP was hit bad by CDP.  In 2019 now that CDP novelty factor is gone the Center-Left flavor of the week is RS


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 06:49:30 am
how well is the anti-NHK party doing?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:51:15 am
Asahi calls  second seat of 広島(Hiroshima) for OPPN defeating LDP's gambit to win both seats.  This is the first seat I got wrong.  It is ironic as I only changed my prediction as the voting started because of low turnout.  I should have stuck to my guns.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:53:10 am

No idea.  Everything is exit poll.  PR vote counting only really takes place after the district votes are mostly counted so we are hours away.  PNHK put out a tweet saying that NHK exit poll leak (ironic is it that the PNHK party will quote a NHK exit poll) has PNHK at 1.7% which is just below the threshold and that everyone has to get out to vote PNHK.

Anyway, no exit poll has PNHK even close to winning a seat.  I suspect they will end up between 1.0%-1.3%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:54:44 am
NHK exit poll for 滋賀(Shiga) has LDP with a very tiny lead.  OPPN ran an ex-Governor which is paying off since the fundamentals should favor LDP (assuming the JRP PR vote will lean LDP)  

()

Party breakdown shows that the JRP PR vote broke for OPPN
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:57:27 am
NHK exit poll for 大阪(Osaka) by party.  CDP and JCP PR voters just voted for their candidate so there was no tactical voting

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 06:58:45 am
NHK exit poll by party for 兵庫(Hyōgo)

Not much JCP tactical vote for CDP.  Or else CDP would have won for sure.  As it is it seems to be neck-to-neck.

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:00:14 am
NHK exit poll for 京都(Kyoto) by party

Equal number of LDP PR voters voted for CDP and JCP ???

()

Looks like it will be close then between CDP and JCP for 2nd seat


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:06:07 am
As of 7:30PM total turnout looks like

                        2016            2019
10am                7.92             5.65
11am              13.22             9.70
2pm                22.54           18.02
4pm                27.25           22.72
6pm                32.49           27.30
7:30pm           36.14           30.11
Early vote        15.05           16.01
Final turnout    54.69

Looks like final turnout will be around 50%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:08:33 am
鹿児島(Kagoshima) and 長崎(Nagasaki) not called yet.  LDP must be under-performing in both.   鹿児島(Kagoshima)  it must be because of the LDP rebel.  長崎(Nagasaki)  as pointed out before it seems OPPN is just doing very well.  LDP will win both but this seems like a scare for them.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 07:10:25 am
does Fukushima prefecture like the LDP more than others in Tohoku?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:11:23 am
In some of the prefectures with some non trivial number of votes counted (like above 10K) the PNHK vote share is around 1%.  Most likely PNHK PR vote will be around that level.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:12:54 am
does Fukushima prefecture like the LDP more than others in Tohoku?

No, if anything LDP's brand is quite poor here for all sorts of reasons including nuclear power.  The LDP candidate broke with the national LDP and is anti-nuclear.  This I think is part of the reason why LDP won here.  Back in 2016 the LDP candidate tried to doge the nuclear issue and was defeated


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:24:38 am
So now the Abe battle to have LDP-KP-JRP to retain 2/3 majority will come down the the Northern Japan 1- member districts of 岩手(Iwate) 宮城(Miyagi) 秋田(Akita) and 山形(Yamagata).  Lower turnout now gives a LDP a chance whereas the opposition grand alliance should win in all 4.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:27:38 am
ANN exit poll has

LDP   57
KP     14
JRP     9
PNHK  1
DPP    5
CDP  20
RS      2
SDP    1
JCP     7
OPPN  8

()

So one exit poll that has PNHK winning a seat.  I am skeptical


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 07:27:44 am
Akita falls away from LDP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:28:53 am
NHK called 秋田(Akita) for OPPN.  First 1- member district battleground to be called.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 07:29:17 am
LDP hold Tochigi


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:36:53 am
Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     31        18      49
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          3       5
OPPN   3                   3

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

5 more PR seats to allocate


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:37:47 am
NHK called 長崎(Nagasaki) for LDP which I am sure is a relief to LDP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:38:45 am

Yeah, that was a scare for LDP for a while too. Of course Ashai call that a while ago.  Still my understanding is the vote share gap is smaller than expected


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:44:27 am
Asahi called 三重(Mie) for LDP a while ago.  Again there the fundamentals are against LDP but the local Center-Left forces and JCP does not get along.  They made it work in 2016 to defeat LDP.  This time the local chemistry was not there. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:46:49 am
NHK exit poll for 兵庫(Hyōgo) broken down by early vote and election day vote.  Early date vote is very KP heavy.  Election day vote is very JRP heavy.

()
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 07:49:51 am
Morimoto is elected in Hiroshima


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:53:07 am
Morimoto is elected in Hiroshima

Asahi called this a while ago

Asahi calls  second seat of 広島(Hiroshima) for OPPN defeating LDP's gambit to win both seats.  This is the first seat I got wrong.  It is ironic as I only changed my prediction as the voting started because of low turnout.  I should have stuck to my guns.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:54:09 am
NHK called 新潟(Niigata) for OPPN.  Another 1- member battleground called.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:55:35 am
Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     32        18      50
KP        6          6      12
JRP      3           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          3       5
OPPN   5                   5

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     33        18      51
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      7         8      15
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   3                   3

5 more PR seats to allocate


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 07:57:03 am
A lot of these 1- member districts are like VA in terms of being called. Pro-LDP rural votes comes in first so as soon as the Opposition candidate takes the lead it is called for Opposition.  In VA as soon as the Dems are ahead of GOP it is called since NOVA always comes in last.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 07:57:46 am
Aomori goes LDP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:01:09 am
NHK exit polls for

千葉(Chiba)
()

埼玉(Saitama)
()

神奈川(Kanagawa)
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:19:03 am
In 岩手(Iwate) it is not called yet but LDP is well ahead and should be called soon.  So the Ozawa fortress falls.  The LDP candidate which used to be a key Ozawa lieutenant is able to capture enough of the Opposition vote to win.    So this 1- member battleground will most likely go LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 08:21:00 am
OPPN win Yamagata


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 08:21:42 am
LDP win Kagoshima


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:22:36 am
It is neck-to-neck in 大分(Ōita) which have fundamentals that favor the opposition but due to better candidate quality was expected to go LDP.  It seems closer than expected.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:24:16 am
NHK called 山形(Yamagata) for OPPN which is another 1- member battleground


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:26:20 am
Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        6          6      12
JRP      4           4       7
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      2          3       5
OPPN   6                   6

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   4                   4

5 more PR seats to allocate


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:31:28 am
Look at the count in 神奈川(Kanagawa)  and 東京(Tokyo) it is clear that LDP -> JRP tactical voting was very effective.  There is no similar tactical voting between CDP and JCP PR voters in places like 大阪(Osaka)  and 兵庫(Hyōgo)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 08:31:30 am
OPPN look like they're back in the race in Iwate.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:32:09 am
OPPN look like they're back in the race in Iwate.

Wow ... I guess that is why I am not NHK and I should leaves the calls to them :)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:34:05 am
The count in  兵庫(Hyōgo) is now

LDP  23.2%
KP    22.4%
JRP   21.8%
CDP  20.9%
JCP    8.9%
PNHK 2.8%

4 way tie !!!  Again JCP PR tactical voting could ensured CDP victory which mostly did not take place.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:35:49 am
2-member 京都(Kyoto) it is

LDP  48.5%
CDP  25.6%
JCP   23.7%
PNHK  2.9%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: kaoras on July 21, 2019, 08:38:16 am
NHK calls Kyoto for JCP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 08:39:55 am
KP win seat in Hyogo


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:41:17 am
In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) it is

LDP  20.0%
KP    14.7%
JCP   14.5%
CDP  13.8%
JRP   11.1%
LDP   11.0%
CDP    9.7%
DPP    2.0%
RS      1.6%

LDP->JRP tactical voting seems to be carrying them to victory


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:44:50 am
NHK calls the second seat of 京都(Kyoto) for JCP.  Wow.  I guess I was wrong.   The CDP candidate is an LGBT activist which I figured might lose it some votes.  It seems that it did cost her and there were LDP and even KP tactical voting for JCP to defeat CDP despite the animosity of LDP and KP voters toward JCP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:51:48 am
In 2- member 広島(Hiroshima) it is

OPPN  32.8%
LDP    28.7%
LDP    28.6%
JCP      6.4%
PNHK   1.7%

LDP achieved its goal of equalizing its vote share across its two candidates.  It seems OPPN vote share was just too big to overcome.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: kaoras on July 21, 2019, 08:54:31 am
NHK calls the second seat of 京都(Kyoto) for JCP.  Wow.  I guess I was wrong.   The CDP candidate is an LGBT activist which I figured might lose it some votes.  It seems that it did cost her and there were LDP and even KP tactical voting for JCP to defeat CDP despite the animosity of LDP and KP voters toward JCP.

CDP is still narrowly ahead in the vote counted but what's left is mostly Kyoto proper where JCP is stronger. Notably, Sakyo-Ku (京都市左京区) still hasn't reported anything. There in the 2018 gubernatorial election, the JCP backed candidate won by 5 points while losing by 12 in the prefecture as a whole (and is one of the areas with the highest turnout)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 08:57:41 am
OPPN win Oita


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:59:24 am
NHK called 大分(Ōita) for OPPN.  An upset for sure.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:00:51 am
Despite lower turnout this election is turning out to be an "Meh" for LDP.  It seems pretty unlikely now that LDP-KP-JRP can retain the 2/3 majority.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:02:25 am
LDP slightly ahead in 岩手(Iwate) and slightly behind in 宮城(Miyagi) and 滋賀(Shiga)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:03:32 am
NHK calls the second seat of 京都(Kyoto) for JCP.  Wow.  I guess I was wrong.   The CDP candidate is an LGBT activist which I figured might lose it some votes.  It seems that it did cost her and there were LDP and even KP tactical voting for JCP to defeat CDP despite the animosity of LDP and KP voters toward JCP.

CDP is still narrowly ahead in the vote counted but what's left is mostly Kyoto proper where JCP is stronger. Notably, Sakyo-Ku (京都市左京区) still hasn't reported anything. There in the 2018 gubernatorial election, the JCP backed candidate won by 5 points while losing by 12 in the prefecture as a whole (and is one of the areas with the highest turnout)

Yeah.  I noticed that Japanese media is much more willing to call races for a candidate that is in theory behind in the count than USA media outfits.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:06:11 am
So far I am wrong in 広島(Hiroshima) (I called for LDP to win vs OPPN for second seat), 京都(Kyoto)  (I called for CDP to win vs JCP for second seat) and 大分(Ōita) (I called for LDP versus OPPN)

Most likely I will also be wrong about 東京(Tokyo)(I called CDP to win the 6th seat vs JRP)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 09:06:51 am
around 360 votes in it in Iwate, OPPN just ahead.

OPPN looking good in Shiga, CDP just ahead in Miyagi


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 09:16:22 am
Iwate looking more and more like an OPPN win


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:18:19 am
The count in  兵庫(Hyōgo) is now

JRP   24.0%
KP    22.8%
LDP  22.1%
CDP  20.3%
JCP    8.4%
PNHK 2.3%

It was suppose to be LDP ahead and KP JRP and CDP in a 3 way tie.  Now it seems LDP is the weakest of LDP KP JRP group.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:19:10 am
LDP back ahead in 宮城(Miyagi).  I think in the end it still goes CDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 09:20:48 am
Yep, Iwate just got called


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:21:31 am
Updated tables

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      3          3       6
OPPN   8                   8

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     35        18      53
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      8         8      16
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      2          4       6
OPPN   7                   7

5 more PR seats to allocate


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:24:24 am
In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) it is

LDP  21.3%
KP    14.8%
JCP   13.4%
CDP  13.1%
LDP  10.1%
JRP    9.6%
CDP   9.3%
DPP   2.7%
RS     2.4%
PNHK 1.4%
SDP   0.8%

Still close between JRP and CDP for 6th and last seat. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:28:03 am
In 滋賀(Shiga) with 82% of the vote counted it is

OPPN 48.6%
LDP   47.3%
PNHK  4.1%

PNHK is capturing all the protest vote just like HRP did back in 2016 and most likely will cost LDP this seat.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 09:29:56 am
OPPN win Shiga


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:30:39 am
I looked at the count the various 1- member districts.  PNHK is getting between 2.5% to nearly 5% of the vote.  This is the "Against All" option.  I suspect this bunch tends to lean LDP so they, like HRP in 2016, most likely cost LDP a couple of seats.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 09:33:49 am
CDP now ahead of JRP in Tokyo, still razor thin margins though.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:33:50 am
宮城(Miyagi) seems to be the only 1- member district left.  With 52% of the vote counted it is LDP 48.7 CDP 47.6 PNHK 3.7


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:37:03 am
In  兵庫(Hyōgo) with 66% of the vote counted it is

JRP   24.6%
KP    23.1%
LDP  21.8%
CDP  20.5%
JCP    7.9%
PNHK 2.2%

Most likely CDP will not make it despite what the exit polls said. But this one was a wild ride.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:39:53 am
Outstanding vote in 宮城(Miyagi) leans Sendai City(仙台市).  If so I would say CDP has the edge over LDP even though right now LDP is ahead 48.7 to 47.6 in the count right now


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 09:40:24 am
Kawai Anri will win the LDP seat in Hiroshima.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:42:57 am
2- member 京都(Kyoto) which has been called for LDP and JCP is now with 86% of the vote counted
 
LDP    43.3%
JCP    25.9%
CDP   25.4%
PNHK  3.8%

So it seems country to what I guess there were some anti-CDP tactical voting by LDP JRP and KP voters in addition to some anti-JCP tactical voting as well.  The anti-LGBT vote is not large but made a difference on the margins.  Some of that vote it seems also went to PNHK.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:45:12 am
Kawai Anri will win the LDP seat in Hiroshima.

In 広島(Hiroshima) with 85% of the vote counted it is

OPPN  31.9%
LDP    28.9%
LDP    27.5%
JCP      6.9%
PNHK   2.4%

LDP came close to winning both seats.  There was not enough votes.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: kaoras on July 21, 2019, 09:48:37 am
Do you know a page where I can see the PR vote breakdown by prefecture?

Also, Tokushima-Kochi seems a bit closer than I would expect given the opposition candidate had JCP background. Maybe it could have been competitive with, say, a CDP candidate?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:49:37 am
In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) with 76% of the vote counted it is

LDP  20.7%
KP    14.6%
JCP   12.9%
CDP  12.6%
LDP    9.6%
JRP    9.4%
CDP   9.2%
RS     3.2%
DPP   3.1%
PNHK 1.8%
Right  1.2% (LDP and anti-Tax background)
SDP   1.0%

RS at 3.2% most likely is costing CDP the seat vs JRP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:52:13 am
Do you know a page where I can see the PR vote breakdown by prefecture?

Also, Tokushima-Kochi seems a bit closer than I would expect given the opposition candidate had JCP background. Maybe it could have been competitive with, say, a CDP candidate?

None I know off in terms of PR breakdown by prefecture.

JCP is fairly strong and LDP fairly weakn in 高知(Kōchi).  If 高知(Kōchi) was being contested by itself it will be neck-to-neck like 大分(Ōita) only 大分(Ōita) it is more about SDP strength.   


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 09:53:16 am
Hyogo seat called for LDP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:55:45 am
With 0.3% of the vote counted PR is

LDP   44.6%
KP     13.8%
JRP     4.6%
PNHK  1.3%
HRP    0.4%
DPP    8.3%
CDP  13.0%
Olive   0.2%
RS      3.0%
SDP    2.3%
LAB    0.1%
JCP    7.5%
EP     0.4% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

The early count favor LDP so LDP vote share will go down


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 10:06:07 am
With 4.5% of the vote counted PR is

LDP   38.51%
KP     12.37%
JRP     8.25%
PNHK  1.48%
HRP    0.31%
DPP    7.91%
CDP  16.12%
Olive   0.23%
RS      3.32%
SDP    2.27%
LAB    0.12%
JCP    8.97%
EP     0.34% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

For LDP to be down to 38.51% so early in the count is not a positive sign for LDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 10:13:39 am
In 6- member 東京(Tokyo) with 85% of the vote counted it is

LDP  20.7%
KP    14.3%
JCP   12.8%
CDP  12.5%
LDP    9.5%
JRP    9.3%
CDP   9.0%
RS     3.4%
DPP   3.2%
PNHK 1.9%
Right  1.3% (LDP and anti-Tax background)
SDP   1.2%

Most likely CDP is not going to make it.  Very effective tactical voting by LDP voters and poor vote coordination by Center-Left voters.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 10:14:52 am
宮城(Miyagi) with 86% of the vote counted it is LDP 48.3 CDP 47.9.  Will come down to the wire as outstanding votes have a slight lean in favor of CDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 10:24:57 am
Miyagi goes CDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Lok on July 21, 2019, 10:28:23 am
CDP Win Miyagi


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 10:28:58 am

This night is getting worse and worse for LDP.  With turnout low there was an expectations of a LDP landslide.  It ended up as a win but a fairly minor win.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 10:35:00 am
Updated tables

District seat only last seat of 東京(Tokyo) which is a battle between JRP and CDP is not called

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      3          3       6
OPPN   9                   9

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      4           4       8
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

5 more PR seats to allocate


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 10:35:56 am
Asahi site is much faster on the PR count relative to NHK

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/senkyo2019/san/kaihyo/C01.html


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 10:37:02 am
CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 10:43:28 am
With 11.50% of the vote counted PR is
         
          Vote       Seat
LDP   37.71%     21
KP     13.69%      7
JRP     8.14%      4
PNHK  1.61%
HRP    0.33%
DPP    7.43%     4
CDP  16.16%     8
Olive   0.25%
RS      3.37%     1
SDP    2.24%     1
LAB    0.12%
JCP    8.58%      4
EP     0.38% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

LDP and DPP vote count will decrease over time and CDP and JRP increase over time as the urban vote comes in.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 10:44:42 am
CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

Not 100% sure. The outstanding vote is deep urban areas which should have CDP lean.  Still JRP should have the upper hand.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 11:01:14 am
CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

Not 100% sure. The outstanding vote is deep urban areas which should have CDP lean.  Still JRP should have the upper hand.

I was wrong.  NHK called last seat in 東京(Tokyo) for JRP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Foucaulf on July 21, 2019, 11:02:03 am
Reliving the results right now and this says it all:



With the LDP projecting losing about 9 seats from 2013 right now, the single member districts is the difference. The 10 include all 9 I/Jaichind last mentioned plus Ōita.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 11:04:38 am
With all district seat called it is

NHK so far has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      5           4       9
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          1       1
SDP     0          0       0
JCP      3          3       6
OPPN   9                   9

8 more PR seats to allocate

Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        18      56
KP        7          6      13
JRP      5           4       9
DPP      3          2       5
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

5 more PR seats to allocate


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 11:05:50 am
Reliving the results right now and this says it all:



With the LDP projecting losing about 9 seats from 2013 right now, the single member districts is the difference. The 10 include all 9 I/Jaichind last mentioned plus Ōita.

I would argue that PNHK cost LDP some of those 1- member seats just like HRP did in 2016.  Still it is up to LDP to get those disgruntled LDP vote and they did not get it done this time just like 2016.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 11:11:57 am
With 19.61% of the vote counted PR is
         
          Vote       Seat
LDP   36.37%     20
KP     14.12%      7
JRP     8.52%      4
PNHK  1.76%!!!!
HRP    0.33%
DPP    7.01%     3
CDP  16.57%     9
Olive   0.25%
RS      3.50%     1
SDP    2.15%     1
LAB    0.11%
JCP    9.01%      5
EP     0.41% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

LDP and DPP vote count will decrease over time and CDP and JRP increase over time as the urban vote comes in.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 11:12:17 am
CDP looking likely to be locked out of second seat in Tokyo.

Not 100% sure. The outstanding vote is deep urban areas which should have CDP lean.  Still JRP should have the upper hand.

I was wrong.  NHK called last seat in 東京(Tokyo) for JRP.
Not necessarily incorrect? I thought you said it wasn't a certainty. By proxy, I was saying the same thing, just with a higher lever of probability.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 11:29:51 am
With 26.96% of the vote counted PR is
         
LDP-KP already below majority
PNHK gains a seat with these numbers !!!
RS at 2 seats !!!

          Vote       Seat
LDP   35.94%     19
KP     13.79%      7
JRP     9.18%      5
PNHK  1.80%      1 !!!
HRP    0.35%
DPP    7.16%      3
CDP  16.15%      8
Olive   0.27%
RS      3.72%     2
SDP    2.10%     1
LAB    0.13%
JCP    8.98%      4
EP     0.42% (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 11:42:50 am
With 30.56% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK still on track to win a seat !!!

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   36.09%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.78%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.04%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.84%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.37%                                0.5%
DPP    7.15%      3                        4.8%
CDP  16.13%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.28%                                0.5%
RS      3.78%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.08%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.14%                                0.2%
JCP    8.89%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.44%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 11:45:47 am
Miraisyakai's map of 1- member districts

The one everyone missed, including myself, was 大分(Ōita)

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 11:52:28 am
The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.
Chalk it down to a talented challenger?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: The scissors of false economy on July 21, 2019, 11:54:41 am
The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 12:13:24 pm
The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.
The party's representation in the House of Councilors is generally stronger than it was in the post-2000 era and especially stronger than it was in the 90s, isn't it?
This election isn't particularly bad except relative to expectations. It's inarguable they under-performed.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 12:15:01 pm
The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.
The party's representation in the House of Councilors is generally stronger than it was in the post-2000 era and especially stronger than it was in the 90s, wasn't it?

2007 for sure was a bad year for LDP


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 21, 2019, 12:17:16 pm
The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.
The party's representation in the House of Councilors is generally stronger than it was in the post-2000 era and especially stronger than it was in the 90s, wasn't it?

2007 for sure was a bad year for LDP
By definition, yeah. It's probably (clearly?) their worse HoC election in the post-1993 era.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 12:42:00 pm
With 56.15% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK still on track to win a seat !!!
DPP seems to be over-performing and CDP under-performing which is the reverse of 2017 (if we view DPP as the successor or HP)
LDP and DPP are still likely to fall over time.  CDP and JRP likely to rise and perhaps JCP.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   36.13%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.33%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.46%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.87%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.13%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.95%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.31%                                0.5%
RS      4.03%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.04%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.15%                                0.2%
JCP    8.72%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.48%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 12:47:30 pm
Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           0       0
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

With 1 PR seat not allocated.   Asahi  not certain that PNHK will win a PR set.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 01:13:49 pm
With 69.85% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.87%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.25%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.80%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.89%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.14%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.79%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.32%                                0.5%
RS      4.13%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.01%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.15%                                0.2%
JCP    8.74%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.50%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 01:17:55 pm
福井(Fukui) is the 1- member district where JCP ran as the joint opposition candidate with the JCP label.  One would expect Anti-LDP voters that cannot accept would then most likely vote PNHK.  The result indicates that this is the case

LDP    66.1%
JCP    26.2%
PNHK   7.7%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 01:21:33 pm
Turnout is estimated to be 48.80%.  In 1995 the record low turnout of 44.52% was reached.  Before 2019 the second lowest turnout in Upper House elections was 1992 at 50.72%


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 01:36:33 pm
With 77.80% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.62%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.23%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.88%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.93%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.08%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.81%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.33%                                0.5%
RS      4.25%     2                         2.3%
SDP    1.99%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP    8.84%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.51%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 01:58:19 pm
With 82.93% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

Does not look like seat count will change from here.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.58%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.20%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.81%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.94%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    7.04%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.85%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.33%                                0.5%
RS      4.31%     2                         2.3%
SDP    1.99%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP    8.88%      4                         9.9%
EP     0.52%                                 0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 02:01:19 pm
Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           1       1
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

NHK seems to refuse to call, understandably, PNHK to win a PR seat.  This seems like the final result unless something dramatic happens


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: The scissors of false economy on July 21, 2019, 02:02:24 pm
Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           1       1
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

NHK seems to refuse to call, understandably, PNHK to win a PR seat.  This seems like the final result unless something dramatic happens

Based on this I count a pro/anti-revision balance of 161-84 or 160-85 depending on PNHK's leanings (which I know nothing about)?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 02:14:09 pm
Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           1       1
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

NHK seems to refuse to call, understandably, PNHK to win a PR seat.  This seems like the final result unless something dramatic happens

Based on this I count a pro/anti-revision balance of 161-84 or 160-85 depending on PNHK's leanings (which I know nothing about)?

These results would produce

LDP+           71
Center Left   35
Third Pole    11 (I count PNHK as Third Pole given its anti-tax leanings)
JCP               7

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          142
Center Left   72
Third Pole     18
JCP              13

Center Left + JCP would be at 85 which is 34.69% of the 245 Upper House which is enough to block Constitutional Revision even if PNHK goes with Abe on Constitutional Revision.  If Abe really wanted Constitutional Revision his way out is to do a deals with KP JRP AND DPP.  DPP might support a watered down Constitutional Revision on SDF.  All this will be very costly politically and frankly not worth doing.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 02:23:07 pm
JRP outperformed across the board. 
They beat out JCP in 茨城(Ibaraki), 神奈川(Kanagawa) and 愛知(Aichi) when CW was that they will fall behind JCP in all three prefectures.  They also outperformed in 大阪(Osaka) 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 東京(Tokyo).  Tactical voting by LDP supporters has a lot to do with it.  In 兵庫(Hyōgo) it seems LDP voters tactically voted in excess and almost cost LDP a seat to CDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 02:26:41 pm
NHK called a PR seat for PNHK ... they finally accept the truth.  Of course  NHK video PNHK is still part of "Others"


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 03:06:37 pm
With 89.70% of the vote counted PR is

PNHK now very likely to win a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

LDP+KP PR vote share most likely will be below 2013 levels

Does not look like seat count will change from here.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share
LDP   35.52%     19                      35.5%
KP     13.10%      7                       13.4%
JRP     9.81%      5                       10.1%
PNHK  1.95%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    6.93%      3                        4.8%
CDP  15.87%      8                      18.9%
Olive   0.33%                                0.5%
RS      4.48%     2                         2.3%
SDP    2.02%     1                         2.1%
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP     8.90%     4                         9.9%
EP      0.53%                                0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 03:48:30 pm
NHK PR count is ahead now so with 93% of the vote counted

PNHK wins a seat.  DPP and RS doing better than expected which came at the expense of CDP and JCP.

LDP+KP PR vote share most likely will be below 2013 levels

Does not look like seat count will change from here.

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share    My predicted seats
LDP   35.36%     19                      35.5%                      19
KP     13.10%      7                       13.4%                       7
JRP     9.99%      5                       10.1%                       5
PNHK  1.96%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    6.90%      3                        4.8%                        2
CDP  15.76%      8                      18.9%                      10
Olive   0.34%                                0.5%
RS      4.52%     2                         2.3%                       1
SDP    2.05%     1                         2.1%                       1
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP     8.93%     4                         9.9%                       5
EP      0.53%                                0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 04:48:39 pm
With 97% of the vote counted

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share    My predicted seats
LDP   35.37%     19                      35.5%                      19
KP     13.12%      7                       13.4%                       7
JRP     9.84%      5                       10.1%                       5
PNHK  1.96%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.41%                                0.5%
DPP    6.95%      3                        4.8%                        2
CDP  15.78%      8                      18.9%                      10
Olive   0.34%                                0.5%
RS      4.52%     2                         2.3%                       1
SDP    2.10%     1                         2.1%                       1
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP     8.92%     4                         9.9%                       5
EP      0.53%                                0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 05:09:44 pm
Kyodo story on RS

Quote
UPDATE1: New group led by actor-turned-politician makes strong showing
TOKYO, July 22 Kyodo
(EDS: RECASTING WITH TWO CANDIDATES' WIN)
A newly created anti-establishment political group Reiwa Shinsengumi, led by actor-turned-politician Taro Yamamoto, made a surprisingly strong showing in Sunday's upper house election, with two severely disabled candidates winning seats.
Yasuhiko Funago, 61, became the first person with Lou Gehrig's disease to be elected as a member of Japan's Diet. Another candidate Eiko Kimura, 54, with cerebral palsy also won a seat.
It is the first time since the current electoral system was introduced in 2001 that a group which is not treated as a major political party in relevant election-related laws has won a parliamentary seat under the proportional representation system.
The group led by the 44-year-old antinuclear activist has called for the abolition of the consumption tax, which the ruling Liberal Democratic Party plans to raise in October, and promised financial relief for households, such as by raising minimum wages.
Yamamoto has also criticized the LDP, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, for failing to lift Japan out of deflation.
He said he wants the public to give more thought to what kinds of support people with disabilities require to improve the quality of their lives, citing education reform as an example.
Yamamoto placed Funago and Kimura in the first and second positions on his group's proportional representation list to ensure it could highlight disability issues if it won seats.
Yamamoto told a press conference that it is important for those with severe illnesses or disabilities to be part of national politics and his party wanted to create "a society that doesn't cut anyone off."
Yamamoto placed himself third on the group's proportional representation list.
Kimura has been disabled since she was 8-months-old, and now uses a wheelchair. She is a long-time activist who has argued for people with disabilities to be enabled to participate fully in society and live as much as possible outside of institutions.
"I am fighting every day to realize a society in which people with disabilities can live, believing that such a society is one in which everyone can live in comfort," she says on her profile page on Reiwa Shinseigumi's website.
Yamamoto left a party he jointly led with veteran lawmaker Ichiro Ozawa to create Reiwa Shinsengumi three months before the upper house election.
The group has proved popular, with Yamamoto campaigning in jeans and a T-shirt and encouraging his audience to ask him questions by passing a microphone.
Reiwa Shinsengumi raised around 300 million yen ($2,784,870) in campaign funds online within a matter of weeks and its volunteers numbered at least 15,000 by early July.
Six years ago, Yamamoto got more than 660,000 votes in the Tokyo constituency.
Yamamoto became known for his antinuclear activities following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear crisis. As an independent upper house member in 2013, he was reprimanded for handing a letter on the nuclear disaster to then-Emperor Akihito at a garden party, triggering criticism that his action could amount to political exploitation of the emperor.
Toru Hasuike, 64, the brother of Kaoru Hasuike who was abducted by North Korea, also ran for Reiwa Shinsengumi but did not win a seat. The former head of secretariat of a group representing family members of Japanese abductees, Hasuike told reporters in May that he shared Yamamoto's antinuclear stance.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 05:54:43 pm
Asahi exit poll shows that SDP and JCP PR voters are mostly older than 50 while RS is much more middle age and even youth heavy.

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 08:59:32 pm
For 1- member district the vote share is similar to 2016 levels

LDP                  52.71%
Right                  0.75%
PNHK                 3.64%
HRP                    0.39%
LAB                    0.10%
Left                    0.10%
--------------------------------------
CDP                 10.28%
DPP                   6.69%
OPPN               24.93%
JCP                    0.42%
---------------------------------------
Grand Alliance  42.31% (CDP DPP SDP JCP alliance)

The PR vote distribution in this set of seats are

LDP-KP             52.74%  
Center-Left       30.57% (CDP DPP RS SDP LAB Olive)
Third Pole           8.79% (JRP PNHK HRP)
JCP                    7.39%
EP                     0.36%

If we do a Right/Left breakdown we have for district 57.34/42.51 and for PR 61.53/37.96

In 2016 it was where the LDP vs Grand Alliance vote share are almost identical

LDP                  53.36%
LDP rebels          0.30%
ORA                   0.57%
HRP                   2.97%
ex-YP                 0.32%
NPB                   0.06%
--------------------------------
DP                    22.75%
Oppn Ind.         19.17%
JCP                     0.50%
--------------------------------
Grand alliance   42.42%  (DP PLP SDP JCP) backed candidates

The PR vote distribution in this set of seats are

LDP-KP             53.11%  
ORA+                8.52%    (ORA PJK NPR)
HRP                   0.82%
NPB                   1.11%
DP+                 27.70%   (DP PLP SDP VPA)
JCP                    8.74%

If we do a Right/Left breakdown we have for district 57.51/42.42 and for PR 62.45/36.44


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:04:58 pm
Asahi exit poll of party support

LDP   41
KP      7
JRP    7
DPP    4
CDP  15
RS      2
SDP    1
JCP    7
Other 1 (PNHK ?)
Ind.  15

The Ind. vote lean LDP for the youth and leaned CDP and JCP for the older voters
()

LDP-KP support adds up to 48.  The LDP-KP PR vote will end up being a bit higher than 48%. With a good chunk of Ind. vote going to LDP or KP PR it seems clear some LDP-KP supporters failed to vote LDP-KP on the PR slate.  Most likely for JRP.  Similar for CDP supporters.  CDP PR vote will be a bit less than 16%.  If CDP support is 15% and a good chunk of Ind. voters voted CDP for PR then part of the CDP supporters failed to vote CDP on the PR slate.  Mostly for DPP and RS.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:07:00 pm
ANN exit polls ended being very accurate

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2019, 09:13:23 pm
Jiji exit poll on how independents voted in 2016 2017 and 2019 on PR vote

               2016     2017     2019
LDP         26.1       22.7      25.5
KP            7.2        6.5        6.8
ORA/JRP  12.8       8.8       12.4
HP                      19.6
DPP                                   6.2
DP           25.3
CDP                    28.0       21.0
RS                                     9.8
SDP                                   2.4
JCP         12.3      7.9          8.7
 

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 04:19:21 am
With all of the PR vote counted

          Vote       Seat       My predicted vote share    My predicted seats
LDP   35.37%     19                      35.5%                      19
KP     13.05%      7                       13.4%                       7
JRP     9.80%      5                       10.1%                       5
PNHK  1.97%      1 !!!                    1.5%
HRP    0.40%                                0.5%
DPP    6.95%      3                        4.8%                        2
CDP  15.81%      8                      18.9%                      10
Olive   0.34%                                0.5%
RS      4.55%     2                         2.3%                       1
SDP    2.09%     1                         2.1%                       1
LAB    0.16%                                0.2%
JCP     8.95%     4                         9.9%                       5
EP      0.54%                                0.3%   (used to be NPB now Euthanasia Party)

RS and DPP over-performed at the expense of CDP and JCP.  PNHK was able to eat into enough of the protest vote of HRP and EP to win a seat.   I generally go the vote share of the different blocs correctly.

                       Result          My prediction
LDP-KP             48.43%           48.90% (LDP KP)
Center-Left       29.90%           28.80% (CDP DPP RS SDP Olive LAB)
Third Pole         12.18%           12.10% (JRP PNHK HRP)
JCP                    8.95%             9.90%

Main deviation between the blocs for me is that RS took about 1% from JCP than I had expected.  The results follow the trend that viable or near viable new parties over-perform  (RS and PNHK) just like CDP over-performed in 2017.  If history is any guide both RS and PNHK will fall a bunch from these levels next election. 

It is clear that lower turnout also include lower turnout of LDP voters as well and not just Center-Left voters.  Still lower turnout clearly hurt CDP the most.  DPP is more depending on the rural Center-Left vote which it seems held up more and as a result over-performed. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 04:29:29 am
My computed district vote share

LDP            39.77%
KP               7.77%
IND(Right)   0.45%
JRP              7.28%
HRP             0.37%
PNHK           3.02% !!!
DPP             6.47%
CDP           15.79%
Olive            0.18% (Anti-nuclear Center-Left)
RS               0.43%
LAB              0.15% (New Left)
SDP             0.38%
IND(Left)     0.13%
JCP              7.37%
OPPN           9.87% (Opposition joint candidate with JCP support except for 広島(Hiroshima))
EP               0.43%

PNHK at 3.02% along with HRP at 0.37% shows the scale of the protest vote.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 05:12:15 am
Do you know a page where I can see the PR vote breakdown by prefecture?

Also, Tokushima-Kochi seems a bit closer than I would expect given the opposition candidate had JCP background. Maybe it could have been competitive with, say, a CDP candidate?

http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000634956.xls

Has the breakdown vote by prefecture.  There is a tab for each party on the PR list.  It is not easy to read as it gives results by each PR list candidate with the sum of all such candidates by party and vote by party at the end of each tab.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 06:40:53 am
I did an initial scan of the PR vote share for RS and PNHK by prefecture.  RS is stronger in urban areas relative to rural areas.  PNHK is stronger in the North than the South.  RS clearly draws from JCP and CDP supporters of 2017.  The PNHK PR voter are protest voters but it seems more likely than not to be ex-Center-Left voters.  The much larger PNHK district vote are more likely to be disgruntled LDP voters on top of the PNHK PR vote.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 07:11:01 am
岩手(Iwate) Opposition margin over LDP.  The level of polarization  is quite high with Ozawa's district very heavy for opposition and the rest of the prefecture lean LDP.
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 07:52:00 am
Looking at the PR vote share by prefecture one trend is that relative performance of LDP in rural prefecture increased and likewise decreased in rural prefectures.  So the "lean" of rural prefectures in favor of LDP grew significantly to a record level.  Likewise the "lean" of urban prefectures in favor of JRP JCP and the Center-Left parties also grew to record levels (at least for JRP.)

It seems what took place was marginal JRP CDP JCP rural voters did not turnout while marginal LDP urban voters did not turnout which led to a fall of overall turnout to very low levels.  If so then the United Opposition got lucky that they won 10 out of the mostly rural 32 1- member districts since relative LDP strength grew there.  The KP PR and some LDP PR defections to the United Opposition and PNHK did LDP in despite a stronger PR performance in these rural areas.

The Upper House election system is "rigged' in the sense that in areas that LDP is strong (rural areas) it is all 1- member seats which makes it FPTP.  In areas of relative LDP weakness it is multi-member district which makes it more like PR.  In addition LDP-Third Pole tactical voting is more effective than Center-Left-JCP tactical voting in these multi-member districts.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 06:30:44 pm
It seems that in the 32 1- member districts the Center-Left-JCP Grand alliance was not the only "grand  alliance" that were formed.  In seems that PNHK and HRP also formed a tactical alliance where only one of the two parties would contest.   PNHK contested 24 1- member seats and HRP contested 3 1- member districts.   5 were not contested by neither (富山(Toyama), 石川(Ishikawa), 和歌山(Wakayama), 佐賀(Saga), and 鹿児島(Kagoshima).  It seems that this de facto alliance want to corner the protest vote and had a seat adjustment so they did not compete with each other for the protest vote.  Neither contesting 鹿児島(Kagoshima) makes sense as the LDP rebel running will most likely pick up the protest vote.  Not sure why PNHK-HRP did not run in the other 4 1- member district.    

This PNHK-HRP alliance won on average 4.61% of the vote in the 27 1- member seats they contested.   This alliance did not hold up in the multi-member seats.  HRP ran in some of them and clearly hurt PNHK.  In the 7 multi-member seats that PNHK ran without HRP running PNHK won on average 3.52% of the vote.  For the 6 multi-member seats that PNHK with HRP in the fray PNHK won on average 2.31% of the vote with HRP winning on average 0.61% of the vote so HRP clearly eats into the PNHK vote share and in many ways PNHK and HRP have similar appeal to protest voters as well as some disgruntled LDP voters.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 06:38:30 pm
Out of the 9 OPPN winners: 2 will most likely caucus with CDP, 6 will most likely caucus with DPP, and 1 is really a member of 沖縄(Okinawa) based OMSP.  


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 06:39:37 pm
Abe vows to push forward constitutional change despite failure of pro-revision forces to win Upper House supermajority

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/07/22/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-vows-push-forward-constitutional-change-despite-failure-pro-revision-forces-win-upper-house-supermajority/#.XTZJBehKiUk

Abe seems to still want to work with Opposition parties to achieve Constitutional Revision in 2020.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 22, 2019, 09:42:26 pm
New seat count in Upper House

LDP  113
KP     28
CDP   32
DPP   21
JCP    13
JRP    16
SDP     2
OPPN 13
RS       2
PNHK   1
Others 4

()

A more detailed chart by class would be
      
        2016 class  2019 class  Total
LDP        56            57         113
KP         14            14            28
JRP          6            10           16
YP           1              0             1  渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) reactivated 1 man YP
VP           2              0             2  国民の声(Voice of People) ex-DP open to Constitutional Revision
PNHK       0             1             1 I suspect open to Constitutional Revision
IND         1              0            1 ex-DP open to Constitutional Revision
DPP       15             6           21
OPPN      4              9           13 (some caucus with DPP others caucus with CDP)  
CDP       15           17           32
RS          0             2             2
SDP        1              1            2
JCP         6              7          13
-------------------------------------------------
Total     121         124         245

LDP loses majority party status.  In 2016 LDP regained it for the first time since 1989 but after 3 years lost it again.

Constitutional Revision requires 2/3 or 164 seats.
LDP+KP+JRP+YP =  158
If you added in VP ex-DP IND and PNHK you get 162 which is 2 short.

Just getting to this 162 would require all sorts of political games and capital.  As mentioned before trying to get DPP on board would be the only viable option left to Abe.

And waiting for 2022 Upper House elections would be even worse.  3 ex-DP MPs elected in 2016 that are open to Constitutional Revision are really by themselves outside DPP and CDP circles which means they will not be re-elected.  So LDP-KP-JRP will have to gain 3 seats on top of 2016 election results just to stay even.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 23, 2019, 04:50:48 am
Jiji exit poll for 18-19 year and PR slate

LDP   41.0
KP     10.8
JRP     7.0
DPP    5.0
CDP  13.9
RS     7.4
SDP   0.8
JCP    5.0

LDP and RS clearly over-perform in this demographic although some of the LDP vote for PR might be KP PR voters in disguise
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 23, 2019, 04:56:14 am
Post election Kyodo poll

Abe Cabinet approve/disapprove 48.6/38.2
Abe getting 4 term as LDP president approve/disapprove  40.6/52.6
Plan to increase consumption tax approve/disapprove 39.8/55.9
Constitutional Revision approve/disapprove  32.2/56.0
Pro-Constitutional Revision forces failure to win 2/3 majority approve/disapprove 29.8/12.2


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: xelas81 on July 23, 2019, 10:25:47 am
Post election Kyodo poll

Abe Cabinet approve/disapprove 48.6/38.2
Abe getting 4 term as LDP president approve/disapprove  40.6/52.6
Plan to increase consumption tax approve/disapprove 39.8/55.9
Constitutional Revision approve/disapprove  32.2/56.0
Pro-Constitutional Revision forces failure to win 2/3 majority approve/disapprove 29.8/12.2

Would delaying the consumption tax increase would lead into more deficit or budget cuts?


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 23, 2019, 11:07:48 am
Post election Kyodo poll

Abe Cabinet approve/disapprove 48.6/38.2
Abe getting 4 term as LDP president approve/disapprove  40.6/52.6
Plan to increase consumption tax approve/disapprove 39.8/55.9
Constitutional Revision approve/disapprove  32.2/56.0
Pro-Constitutional Revision forces failure to win 2/3 majority approve/disapprove 29.8/12.2

Would delaying the consumption tax increase would lead into more deficit or budget cuts?

No, that will just kick the deficit can down the road.  Of course the USA is no different.  Back in 2014 when the consumption tax went up there was a mini-recession which is why there is a lot of reservation and tension about this tax increase.  The Abe government has all sort of short term spending that balances out the impact of the tax increase so what took place in 2014 is unlikely to happen again.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 23, 2019, 09:37:17 pm
PNHK leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) 18 minute official campaign statement given on NHK which is mostly attacking NHK and repeating his slogan "Crush NHK" every 30 seconds or so has over 3.1 million views

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRi4od_Thus&t=764s


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 23, 2019, 09:46:15 pm
Nikkei analysis of voting by age group came out with results if only certain age groups voted.

                         LDP-KP       Opposition
18-19                  71                 53
20-29                  72                 52
30-39                  73                 51
40-49                  71                 53
50-59                  71                 53
60-69                  64                 60
70+                    73                 51
Actual result        71                 53

The 60-69 age group anti-LDP lean is clear


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 23, 2019, 09:49:44 pm
Various post election polls do not show a bump in Abe Cabinet approval

()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 24, 2019, 05:39:30 pm
Japanese version of uselectionatlas predictions.  Had I submitted my prediction I would have gotten 145 points and be in 7th place out of around 50 some entries.

()


Final prediction with turnout likely to be around 51%

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (JCP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP (competitive)                                 
岩手   Iwate               1             OPPN (competitive) 
宮城   Miyagi               1            CDP  (competitive)     
秋田   Akita                1             OPPN (competitive)                                 
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (competitive)                       
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP (competitive)                     
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP CDP (JCP)                           
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                           
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                 
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP JCP (JRP)                     
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP (JCP)                   
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP CDP KP JRP (JCP)           
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP     
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP JCP KP LDP CDP CDP (JRP)   
新潟   Niigata             1            OPPN (competitive)             
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                 
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                 
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                 
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                             
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                 
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP  (CDP)                         
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP DPP CDP KP (JCP)               
三重   Mie                   1             LDP (competitive)                               
滋賀   Shiga                1             OPPN  (competitive) 
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (JCP)   
大阪   Osaka               4             JRP LDP KP JRP (CDP)           
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP JRP KP (CDP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                 
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                 
鳥取 Tottori                 
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                 
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP           
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP LDP (OPPN)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                 
徳島   Tokushima   
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                 
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                 
愛媛   Ehime              1             OPPN (competitive)                                   
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP (JCP)                     
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                 
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                 
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                 
大分   Ōita                  1            LDP (competitive)             
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                 
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                 
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN     
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9
                                                           
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                19                    35.5%               40                     59
KP                   7                     13.4%                7                     14
JRP                  5                     10.1%                4                       9
HRP                 0                      0.5%                0                       0
PNHK               0                      1.5%                0                       0
Euthanasia       0                      0.3%                0                       0
DPP                  2                     4.8%                3                       5
CDP                10                   18.9%               11                    21
SDP                 1                       2.1%               0                       1
RS                   1                      2.3%                0                       1
LAB                 0                       0.2%               0                        0
Olive               0                       0.5%               0                        0
JCP                 5                       9.9%               2                        7
OPPN                                                              9                       9

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          73
Center-Left    35
Third Pole       9
JCP                7

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections

LDP-KP        144
Center-Left    72
Third Pole      16
JCP               13

The Center-Left + JCP would form 34.69% of the 245 member chamber which would barely be enough to block a Constitutional revision. 

The main controversial part of my prediction is I am sticking to CDP beating JCP for the second seat in 京都(Kyoto) despite pattern of lower turnout which should favor JCP based on KP JRP and LDP tactical voting for CDP to beat JCP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 25, 2019, 11:14:17 am
I have looked over the 32 1- member districts and grouping them by Opposition candidate type (CDP DPP or OPPN) as well as opposition candidate quality (political experience in said prefecture) I did a bunch of regression by PR vote.  I grouped PR vote by (LDP KP JRP DPP CDP Left [RS SDP Olive LAB], Protest parties (HRP PNHK) JCP and EP)

What I found was mostly expected by still interesting

1) When the opposition candidate is from the CDP, the JRP PR voter leans very heavy for LDP (88-8).

2) When the opposition candidate is from the DPP, the JRP PR voter still leans LDP has some support for the Opposition candidate (74-20).  On the flip side in such cases there are some defections from CDP PR (80-18) and JCP PR (88-11) voters that voted LDP

3) When the Opposition candidate is Independent (OPPN) with less political experience there are more defections from KP PR (86-14) to vote OPPN even as JRP PR (89-4) voter still lean very heavy for LDP.  At the same time running as OPPN seems to create some defections from JCP PR (83-17) voters

4) When the opposition candidate is a high quality candidate (someone with significant political experience in said prefecture) there is almost no defection from the various Center-Left PR voters (DPP CDP Left JCP) while there is significant defection from LDP PR (78-18) and JRP PR (67-27) voters to vote for opposition candidate. There are some defection from KP PR (90-10) voters but no greater than an OPPN candidate with smaller amount of political experience.

5) In the one case the opposition candidate is a JCP candidate it is clear that not only does he not capture any LDP KP JRP PR voters there are significant defection from non-JCP PR voters from the Center-Left.  But in the two case where the opposition candidate is JCP candidate running as OPPN the level of Center-Left PR voters are much reduced and there are even a bit of cross-voting by JRP PR voters.  So the Center-Right PR votes are hostile to label JCP and not not necessary the JCP policies.  The KP PR voter is the exception where there is almost no defection from KP PR voter for the JCP candidate running as OPPN.  This is not a surprise as KP is very hostile to JCP.

6) HRP and PNHK should be considered Third Pole parties.  Most of the district vote PNHK-HRP received beyond the PNHK PR and HRP PR voters are from LDP and JRP PR voters.  So a good part of the PNHK-HRP district vote are disgruntled LDP PR and JRP PR voters.

The two seats which I kept out of the regression because they are such outliers are 福井(Fukui) (where JCP ran as the opposition candidate) and 愛媛(Ehime) where the OPPN candidate has massive local appeal and way exceeded the Center-Left-JCP base.

福井(Fukui) district results are

LDP       66.14%
PNHK      7.69%
JCP       26.18%

PR section results are

LDP       45.20%
KP        10.51%
JRP        6.54%
Protest   2.60% (PNHK HRP)
DPP       9.98%
CDP     12.04%
Left       6.37% (RS SDP Olive LAB)
JCP        6.38%
EP         0.38%

Clear signs of defection of Center-Left PR votes especially when most of the PNHK votes are from LDP PR and JRP PR voters.


愛媛(Ehime) district results are

LDP       41.51%
PNHK      2.49%
OPPN    56.00%

PR section results are

LDP      41.65%
KP        15.40%
JRP        9.08%
Protest   2.21% (PNHK HRP)
DPP       7.98%
CDP     11.87%
Left       5.73% (RS SDP Olive LAB)
JCP       5.79%
EP         0.29%

Clear signs of defection from Center-Right PR voters for OPPN.  It seems that disgruntled LDP PR and JRP PR voters that would have voted PNHK or HRP in other prefecture voted OPPN to show their anger.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 25, 2019, 11:47:32 am
In the 32 1- member districts running as an independent seems to help the opposition candidate.  If you compare CDP candidate performance relative to OPPN candidate with CDP background, DPP candidate performance relative to OPPN candidate with DPP or Rengo background, and JCP candidate performance relative to OPPN candidate with JCP background it is clear that given a background you much rather run as an OPPN candidate.

The way you do this is to compare the average vote share of different candidate types and compare pare them the the average Center Left PR + JCP PR vote share in places where this candidate type ran.  This compare the performance relative to the "base vote" of said candidate

                                                          Avg District      Avg Center-Left+JCP
                             Number    (W-L)       Vote share         PR Vote share
CDP                            7          1-6             39.13%               38.99%
OPPN(CDP)                 4          3-1              50.03%               37.82%

DPP(incumbent)          1         1-0             55.13%               49.42%
DPP                            5          0-5            34.92%                31.51%
OPPN(DPP/Rengo)     11           4-7            42.35%                36.89%
 
JCP                             1         0-1             26.18%               34.78%           
OPPN(JCP)                  2          0-2            35.86%                35.33%

OPPN(OMSP)               1         1-0            53.57%                52.37%

To make it an apples-to-apples comparison in the couple cases a minor Left wing candidate was in the fray I added those votes toward the Opposition candidate vote share since these candidates almost certainly drew on Center-Left-JCP PR votes.

For 長野(Nagano) the DPP candidate is an incumbent (the only opposition candidate in the 32 1- member seats which is an incumbent while 28 out of 32 LDP candidates are incumbents) so I split that result out from the rest of DPP given the incumbent advantage he will enjoy.     


Running as OPPN allows the candidate to minimize defections and eat into the Center-Right PR vote shares relative to running with a party label.  Part of this is self-selection. High quality candidates with local political roots can relay on his or her name to get votes while those which are not high quality might need the party label to turn out voters due to low name recognition   

Note that DPP got the harder seats since the seats they ran in have a lower Center-Left + JCP PR vote shares.  DPP is stronger in the Rural South while CDP is stronger in the North.  LDP-KP is clearly stronger in the Rural South so DPP has to take on those seats and mostly lose.

On the LDP side, as mentioned before the LDP had 28 incumbents and 4 non-incumbents.  The W-L rate for the 28 incumbents are 21-7 while the W-L rate for non-incumbents are 1-3.  That the opposition chocked off 7 LDP incumbents in the 32 1- member districts is quite an accomplishment.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 25, 2019, 06:07:07 pm
PNHK leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) and newly elected MP on the PR list indicates that PNHK is open to backing Abe Constitutional revision if LDP can support his agenda of de-funding NHK


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 25, 2019, 07:08:29 pm
The moment NHK makes the call that PNHK has won a seat I guess is this election's Portillo moment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okJoPkWUQdQ&list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&t=31103s


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 25, 2019, 09:16:31 pm
With 992,267.053 votes RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is the higher vote winner on the PR slate and second high vote winner in the entire election only coming behind 東京(Tokyo) LDP's 丸川珠代(Marukawa Tamayo).  Yet 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  did not win a seat since RS only won 2 PR seats and he placed 2  "specific quota" candidates on the RS list ahead of him.

Note that the vote count 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) won was 992,267.053.  The reason for fractional vote are because voters write down the name of the candidate they want to vote for.  If someone wrote just  "山本" or Yamamoto on the PR vote the vote is split proportionally between all the PR candidates that has  "山本" or Yamamoto  as their last name.  There are at least 3 more PR candidates with "山本" or Yamamoto as the last name (1 LDP and 2 KP).


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 26, 2019, 05:53:25 am
Updated chart on historical PR vote by bloc

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17             11.23
2001       55.86              11.63             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.45                0.23             46.52              7.80
2005       51.43                4.81             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.45             45.80              7.48
2009       38.18                8.12             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.37             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.22             19.20              9.68
2014       46.82              18.89             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       45.79                7.16             38.93              7.90
2019       48.43              12.18             29.90              8.95

LDP+ and Third Pole recovered from 2017 dip.  In 2017 what I count as Center-Left HP is really 2/3 Center-Left and 1/3 Third Pole.  The Third Pole vote that HP pulled in now flows back to Third Pole while LDP+ also recovers.  LDP always does better on the Upper House PR vote relative to Lower House elections due to lower turnout in Upper House elections but also that Upper House PR vote you can vote for a person and LDP has much more political talent that have their own personal vote than another other party.  KP and JCP merely benefit from lower turnout given their voter's high turnout rate no matter what.


Vote share as a % of VAP and LDP KP also broken out chart is

Year    Turnout    LDP         KP      Center     Third       JCP
                                                  Left         Pole
2001   54.03%  20.84%   8.08%  13.29%   6.29%   4.27%
2003   57.77%  20.19%   8.54%  24.56%                4.48%
2004   54.52%  16.37%   8.40%  25.37%   0.13%   4.25%
2005   65.85%  25.14%   8.73%  24.04%   3.17%   4.78%
2007   56.81%  15.95%   7.49%  26.02%   3.10%   4.25%
2009   67.70%  18.10%   7.75%  31.60%   5.49%   4.76%
2010   56.19%  13.53%   7.34%  20.29%  11.60%  3.43%
2012   57.89%  15.99%   6.85%  13.92%  17.58%  3.55%
2013   51.11%  17.72%   7.27%    9.81%  11.35%  4.95%
2014   51.30%  16.99%   7.04%  11.66%   9.69%   5.83%
2016   52.74%  18.94%   7.13%  13.96%   6.44%   5.66%
2017   52.56%  17.49%   6.58%  20.46%   3.76%   4.15%
2019   47.29%  16.73%   6.17%  14.14%   5.76%   4.23%

Note turnout here is valid non-null PR vote as a % of VAP.

With very low turnout LDP vote share as a % of VAP falls to the lowest level since 2012.  KP vote share as % of VAP continues its secular decline.  The Center-Left vote as a % of VAP dropped from its 2017 surge but still better than 2016.  Both Third Pole and JCP recovered from 2017 but still below 2016 for vote share as a % of VAP.

Given the ultra-low turnout this should have been KP's year to shine.  Yet the result was solid but not great and revealed that even the KP turnout machine have limits and that is core voter base is in decline.  In 10-15 years the LDP's KP alliance might not be that election winning strategy it used to be if these trends continue.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 26, 2019, 03:27:33 pm
There were 2 PR candidates which were elected on the YP PR slate in 2010 but were defeated for re-election in 2016 which due to their election experience being illustrative on strategies of getting elected on the PR slate I was tracking this election.  Both got elected.  Looking at the election history of these two MPs elected on the PR slate helps to explain some political strategies around being elected on the PR slate.  

Just to get details out of the way, the PR slate is based on an party open list process where a voter can vote for a party OR a PR list candidate which gets accrued to the party to calculate the PR seats allocated to said party.  The candidates on the list that are elected are based on the number of votes each member on the list gets.  

So the correct strategy of a PR list candidate is to
a) Make sure there is a large enough personal vote so people vote for your name
b) Be on a party list that can actually win enough votes to have any PR seats elected to allocate  
c) Make sure other PR candidates on the party list you are on have a smaller personal vote than you do.

From a political party's point of view you want to get candidates on your list that have a large personal vote to augment your own party loyalists that will vote for the party itself so you expand the number of votes accrued to your party.  

The first candidate go over the election history of is

山田太郎(Tarō Yamada).  
()

He has a business background but got into politics given his libertarian positions and ran as a PR candidate for YP in 2010.   He got 30.6K votes which placed him 10th.  But YP won enough votes for 7 seat in 2010 so he was not elected.  In 2012 several YP MPs elected on the 2010 PR slate choose to resign to run in the 2012 Lower House elections on the YP or JRP ticket.  So as a result 山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) which was next in line was put into the Upper House in late 2012.

YP dissolved in 2014 so 山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) joined YP successor AEJ which mostly dissolved before the 2016 Upper House elections.  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) in the meantime re-invited himself politically and became an advocate of Otaku or Japanese male youth which are fans of Anime and manga.  He fought against laws to regulate hentai due to linkages to child pornography.  He became a hero of what is called the "geek vote" of young males that are really into Hentai.  With this base of support he sought to run on the ORA PR list in 2016.  Other ORA PR candidates pushed backed on accepting  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) into the ORA PR list seeing him as unfairly denying them their rightful place as the winners on the ORA list.  ORA high command backed down and did not add  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) on the ORA PR list.  

山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) in 2016 ran on Third Pole and LDP Libertarian splinter NPR instead.   He ended up winning a surprising 291K votes.  But NRP even with the 291K votes won around 580K votes on the PR list which is only 1.04% of the PR vote and not enough for it to win a seat which would have gone to  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada).  So while  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) has as large personal vote he did not run for a party that had enough support for him to win a seat.  ORA of course made a mistake here.    山田太郎(Tarō Yamada)'s 291K was by itself 0.52% of the national PR vote which had he ran for ORA would have for sure given ORA an extra PR seat to allocate and not hurt other ORA PR candidates to win a seat due to them.

山田太郎(Tarō Yamada)'s large PR vote in 2016 caught LDP's eye.   Under the rule "If you win you are LDP", LDP courted  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) who quickly jump on board and joined LDP to run for LDP in 2019.  The LDP figures if  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) and bring his 291K with him then all that vote would count toward LDP's vote share.    As it is  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) win a massive 540K votes which by itself was 1.08% of the entire PR vote and put him to be second on the LDP PR list and is duly elected.   山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) running for LDP was a win-win.  He ran for a party which had prospect of winning a bunch of seats and given his vote base he should be able to come in the top 19 (the 19th LDP PR winner won 132K votes) giving him a win unlike 2016  where 291K did not yield him a seat.  For LDP they get an extra 0.5%-1.0% vote share to LDP that could have gone to another party had  山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) ran for another party.

The second candidate is also interesting.  He is

柴田巧(Takumi Shibata).  
()

He was a LDP local politician in 富山(Toyama) and was elected to several terms in the prefecture assembly and has deep roots in the prefecture.    In 2009 Lower House election he sought the LDP nomination to run in the LDP stronghold of 富山(Toyama) 3rd district which became an open seat.  He was denied and instead ran as a LDP rebel.  The result was

LDP          45.9%
IND(DPJ)  36.0%
Takumi     17.3% (around 51K votes)

After his defeat 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) joined the rising YP and ran as a YP PR candidate in the 2010 Upper House elections.    He won around 88K overall of which 62K was from  富山(Toyama) which actually placed him first in the YP list since the other YP PR candidate did not really have a large personal vote.  To show the size of 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata)'s personal vote in 富山(Toyama), YP won 20.3% of the PR vote in 富山(Toyama) in 2010.  柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) by himself won 11.0% of the PR vote for 富山(Toyama) which means he pretty much carried half the YP PR vote in  富山(Toyama).  In 2012 Lower House elections without 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata)'s name YP only won 6.7% of the PR vote in 富山(Toyama).  

After YP split in 2014 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) went with YP splinter UP and which merged into JIP. In early 2016 after ORA split from JIP, JIP merged with DPJ to form DP.  So for the 2016 Upper House elections 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) ran on the DP PR list.  柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) actually won 73K votes (50K votes of it from 富山(Toyama) which means if anything his personal vote in 富山(Toyama) grew from 2010)  But 73K placed him 17th on the DP list as the DP PR list had many PR candidates with large personal vote.   As it is DP only won enough votes for 11 seats so 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) was not elected.   柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) did make a huge impact on 富山(Toyama).  DP won 24.2% of the PR vote in 富山(Toyama) of which 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) 's personal vote was 10.5% of it.  Back in 2014 DPJ won 10.3% of the  富山(Toyama) PR vote and an undivided JIP (ORA had not split out yet) won 16.9% of the vote.  It is clear DP getting 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) to run for it gained it a bunch of PR votes in 富山(Toyama) even though 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) failed to win.

柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) stayed in DP and went to join HP in 2017 when DP was de facto dissolved.   He again ran in 富山(Toyama) 3rd district as the HP candidate against his old LDP rival of 2009.  He was defeated

LDP   63.9%
HP    28.2% (around 62K)
JCP    8.0%

For 2019 Upper House elections 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) was recruited by JRP given his personal vote in  富山(Toyama) to run for JRP PR slate.  He won around 54K votes which placed him 4th place on the JRP list.  This is because other than NPD founder and leader 鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) JRP's PR list did not have that many candidates that has a large personal vote.  As a result 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata)  was elected even though his 54K votes was less than the 73K votes he won in 2016 on the DP PR list.  As it is he won only 33K votes in 富山(Toyama) which is less than 2010 and 2016 but still carried JRP in 富山(Toyama).   As it is JRP won 14.5% of the PR vote in 富山(Toyama) of which 8.3% of it was won by 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata).  In 2017 Lower House election without 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) name on the JRP list JRP won 7.0% of the PR vote.  So it is clear that 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) had carried JRP in 富山(Toyama) in 2019.

The main lessons of these two candidates is that a large personal vote, even if concentrated in a prefecture, is not enough to win FPTP seats but can help you win on the PR slate as long as you join the right party list that can win seats but do not have too many heavy personal vote candidates on the same party list to take slots from you.


I wrote about 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) back in 2016
Looking through the PR vote section by prefecture also resolved another mysterious result which I could not explain before.  Telling the tale of my discovery also helps tell a bigger story of why LDP win.

The initial mystery was around the result in the 1- district and old LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama).  What took place was was turnout surged from 2013 by 5.4% when the rest of Japan turnout went up by around 2%.  Then on the PR section the DP PR vote surged to 24.22% from 10.3% in 2014 and 9.41% in 2013. As a result LDP+KP PR vote was at 54% which was a drop of 2.3% from 2014 when LDP+KP PR went up by 2.6% in the PR section since 2014 across Japan.  The in the district section for Toyama LDP completely overperformed its PR vote over the united opposition candidate.  Based on my regression model, which uses PR vote section and looks at incumbency effects, the LDP got over 8.4% vote share over what my model would imply.  Part of it can be explained by a popular LDP incumbant and weak opposition independent candidate but then would would there be a surge of DP PR vote with high turnout only for the same voters to then just vote LDP on the district vote.

This mystery got unraveled when I looked at the PR section by candidate and prefecture.  It turned out that an incumbant ex-YP MP 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) who won in 2010 on the YP PR slate but then joined DP won a large amount of the PR vote in his home prefecture of Toyama.  Out of the 116.5K PR votes cast for DP in Toyama, 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) himself won as a vote for him 50.3K.  So nearly half of the DP PR vote in Toyama was cast for Shibata.  Just for comparison, in other prefectures the DP PR vote is usually around 20% for candidate names (let alone just one candidate)  and 80% for the party itself.  Shibata lost reelection because even though he won 50.3K in Toyama he won only 73K over all of Japan which placed him 17th on the DP PR list and DP only won enough votes to win 11 seats.

柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi)
()

Looking at  柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) himself.  He was with the LDP in the Toyama prefecture assembly but in 2009 ran as a LDP rebel in the Lower House elections and lost but winning 50K votes in 1 of the 3  Toyama Lower House districts.  Then he joined YP and ran on the PR list for YP in 2010.  In 2010  Shibata won 87.8K vote of which most of it must have come from  Toyama which place him first in the YP PR list of which 4 was elected based on a 8.9% vote share and over 4.7 million votes.  2010 YP PR list did not have that many well known candidates and 90% of the PR vote for the YP party itself so 87.8K was enough to place him first.  2016 DP PR list had a lot more well known candidates so a slight decrease in total number of votes for Shibata drove him to 17th place. So Shibata went from a big fish in a small pond to a small fish in a big pond and lost re-election.    It seems most of Shibata's votes in Toyama are his personal vote and would otherwise vote LDP.  Just to give an idea the impact Shibata has on the PR vote, in 2010 when Shibata ran on the YP PR slate, YP won 20.34% of the Toyama PR vote.  In 2012 and 2014 when YP did not have Shibata  as a personal candidate on the PR list (of course 2012 was a Lower House election where one cannot for a PR candidate anyway) YP won 6.67% and 4.96% in the PR section of Toyama.

So now the mystery is solved.  The DP surge in Toyama 2016 was based on the fact that  柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) by himself won over 10% of the PR vote which pushed to the DP PR vote share to above 24% when it recently had been in the single digits.  But most of this vote are the personal vote of  Shibata and when left to vote on the district section mostly voted LDP.  It seems given the size of Shibata's personal vote it is likely he will run in the next Lower House elections so he can add his personal vote with the center-left and possibly JCP and make his race potentially competitive.  

The story of 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) is very instructive on why LDP wins.  For each 柴田 巧 (Shibata Takumi) who is a LDP rebel, many other local politicians with personal votes stay in LDP.  The dynamic is the following:

LDP is in charge of central government -> Local governments cannot issue debt -> Center Government distributes subsidies to local government via the MPs and MLAs of said prefecture -> local politicians join LDP so bring home the bacon -> local politician personal votes transferred to LDP for national elections -> LDP in charge of central government.  

At least for now Shibata being part of DP has not lead to his personal base going over to DP as seen by the district vote but over time that could change.  
  


I also wrote about 山田太郎(Tarō Yamada) in 2016 as well
Another set of data I was able to dig out of the PR vote distribution by candidate was able to explain the unexpectedly large PR vote share by NPR (1.04%) as well as a tale of how ORA threw away a PR seat.  

NPR is pretty much a defunct Right Libertarian LDP splinter party.  Without knowing too much at the ground I figured they were only good for 0.5%. but they actually managed 1.04% which was still not enough to win a PR seat but still higher than I expected.  I looked into why.  It turns out an ex-YP incumbent MP 山田太郎 (Yamada Taro) won single handedly over 290K votes which itself was 0.52% of total PR vote share making him the 13th largest vote getter of all the PR candidates running.  So NPR got around 0.5% of the PR vote but when added  by Yamada's vote put NPR past 1% vote share.  Of course since NPR failed to win a seat on PR Yamada was not elected.

山田太郎 (Yamada Taro)
()

山田太郎 (Yamada Taro) was elected as part of the class of 2010 YP  slate.  When YP became defunct at the end of 2014 he joined AEJ.  While there he took on the cause of freedom of speech when it came to laws that try to regulate Hentai comics books on the premise of stopping child pornargraphy. This appears to have won him the support of a Hentai reading male youth voting bloc the media call the Geek Vote.  In early 2016 Yamada quite AEJ when it was clear AEJ will not even try to contest in 2016 and joined ORA who nominated him to be their candidate for 埼玉(Saitama). Yamada quit ORA claiming that he joined the the premise he would be put in the ORA PR list a fact ORA disputed.  From Yamada's point of view running in Saitama would lead to sure defeat when his support is evenly spread across Japan which is a perfect match for a PR candidate.  ORA's concern is that having Yamada on its PR list would only cannibalize the ORA PR vote and offend other ORA PR list candidate who would see Yamada potentially large vote as squeezing them out of their sure seat.   So Yamada ran on NPR PR list winning a large number of votes from the "Geek voting bloc" but failing re-election.  ORA made a big mistake as Yamada's ability to win over 0.5% of the national PR vote shows that he as independent draw and had he run on the ORA PR would have easily added a seat, won by Yamada, to the ORA seat count at the expense of LDP.  




Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 06:51:06 am
If you break up the Japanese prefectures into Urban, Suburban and Rural and then look at the LDP PR vote "lean" you get a sense where the lower turnout of Upper House elections are coming at the expense of

2001 4.91%  Upper
2003 3.95%  Lower
2004 5.17%  Upper
2005 0.15%  Lower (Koizumi Urban wave)
2007 4.15%  Upper
2009 3.21%  Lower
2010 4.40%  Upper
2012 3.56%  Lower
2013 5.14%  Upper
2014 2.51%  Lower
2016 4.94%  Upper
2017 3.02%  Lower
2019 5.70%  Upper

The 2019 LDP Rural lean is at a record 5.70%. 

A similar chart for LDP PR Urban lean has

2001 -4.22%  Upper
2003 -3.23%  Lower
2004 -3.95%  Upper
2005  1.10%  Lower (Koizumi Urban wave)
2007 -3.04%  Upper
2009 -2.62%  Lower
2010 -3.78%  Upper
2012 -3.22%  Lower
2013 -4.08%  Upper
2014 -2.42%  Lower
2016 -4.58%  Upper
2017 -2.34%  Lower
2019 -5.40%  Upper

Tells a similar story in reverse.  The LDP 2019 urban lean is at a record low of -5.40%

The LDP rural lean is always greater in Upper House years.  That is partly because of the personal vote is greater in rural areas and the Upper House PR vote allows for a personal vote.  But it also implies that lower turnout in Upper House elections is about rural Opposition voters not turning out as the LDP core vote are in rural areas.  Likewise lower turnout in Upper House elections is about urban LDP voters not turning out as JCP Third Pole (YP and now JRP) and now CDP core vote are in urban areas who will loyally turn out.

The KP PR urban lean over the years is interesting

2001 1.31%
2003 0.74%
2004 1.05%
2005 0.28%
2007 0.97%
2009 0.08%
2010 0.59%
2012 -0.47%
2013 -0.39%
2014 -0.36%
2016 -0.26%
2017 -0.28%
2019 -0.15%

KP historically have been an urban party these trends clearly tell that the secular decline of the KP vote as a % of VAP has been more about is urban base slowing drifting away with generational change while its rural and suburban vote has been declining with a smaller velocity.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 06:56:59 am
Asahi poll on what should be PM priorities

Securing Pension system  38%
Education                        23%
Economy                         17%
Foreign policy                  14%
Constitution Revision         3%
()

I think Abe will have to go slow on his attempts to forge deals with the Opposition for Constitution Revision since he does not have the numbers and the polls are not with him. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 11:46:21 am
For the multi-member districts on the whole the protest parties (PNHK and HRP) mostly got what their PR vote was which make them about shifts and tactical voting between the different major parties

北海道(Hokkaido) (3- member)

LDP     34.36%  elected (ex-Governor)
CDP     21.73%  elected
LDP     18.85%  elected
JCP     11.03%
DPP      9.43%
PNHK    2.63%
EP        0.99%
HRP      0.57%
LAB      0.42%

PR breakdown
LDP     32.30%
KP       11.70%
JRP       7.78% (3.96% of which is for 鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo))
Protest  2.58% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      6.65%
CDP    20.85%
Left      5.74% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP    11.58%
EP        0.81%

District Right/Left balance is 56.41%/42.61% while the PR Right/Left balance is 54.36%/44.83%

LDP running a popular ex-Governor clearly paid of she was able to eat into the Center-Left Opposition votes.  Inability for CDP DPP and JCP to coordinate their voting clearly meant that in the end it was overkill by LDP.

Back in 2017 JRP won 2.76% of the PR vote while NPD won 8.37% of the PR vote.  It seems overall  鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) was only able to bring half of the NPD PR vote with him.  I would have expected that JRP does better here that what they ended up with.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 11:56:07 am
茨城(Ibaraki) (2- member)

LDP     47.92%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     22.45%  elected
JCP     12.20%
JRP     11.86%
PNHK    5.57%
 
PR breakdown
LDP     39.33%
KP       15.12%
JRP       6.73%
Protest  2.32% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      7.15%
CDP    15.20%
Left      5.95% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      7.73%
EP        0.47%

District Right/Left balance is 65.35%/34.65% while the PR Right/Left balance is 63.50%/36.03%

There seems to be clear signs of cross voting by DPP PR voters for JRP  as well as tactical voting by LDP PR voters for JRP.  Some LDP disgruntled voters here clearly went over to PNHK.  In retrospect perhaps 茨城(Ibaraki) should have been the place the LDP tried to win 2 out of 2 seats instead of 広島(Hiroshima) given how CDP JRP and JCP splintered the non-LDP field.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 12:09:22 pm
埼玉(Saitama) (4- member)

LDP     28.25%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     19.26%  elected
KP       19.12%  elected (incumbent)
JCP     12.90%  elected
DPP      8.78%
JRP       7.33%
PNHK    2.89%
EP        0.76%
HRP      0.70%

PR breakdown
LDP     31.39%
KP       14.50%
JRP       7.32%
Protest  2.83% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      5.21%
CDP    20.79%
Left       6.72% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP     10.55%
EP        0.68%

District Right/Left balance is 58.30%/40.95% while the PR Right/Left balance is 56.03%/43.28%

KP tends to not just attract LDP PR tactical votes but sometimes DPP/CDP PR tactical votes as well which is what seems to have taken place here.  Inability between anti-JCP JRP and DPP supporters to coordinate means that JCP gets a free pass and wins with ease.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 12:15:22 pm
千葉(Chiba) (3- member)

LDP     30.54%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     28.89%  elected (incumbent)
LDP     19.06%  elected (incumbent)
JCP     15.72%
PNHK    3.93%
EP        1.86%

PR breakdown
LDP     36.36%
KP       14.10%
JRP       6.19%
Protest  2.30% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      4.23%
CDP    20.01%
Left      6.71% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      9.38%
EP        0.71%

District Right/Left balance is 53.53%/44.61% while the PR Right/Left balance is 58.95%/40.34%

Clearly a good part of the KP PR vote sent over to CDP instead of voting for one of the LDP candidates.  JRP PR voters also mostly like split between LDP and CDP candidates.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 12:23:14 pm
神奈川(Kanagawa) (4- member)

LDP     25.17%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     20.38%  elected (incumbent)
KP       16.89%  elected (incumbent)
JRP     15.81%  elected (incumbent) (ex-Governor)
JCP     11.60%  
DPP      3.48%
PNHK    2.17%
SDP      1.69%
Right    0.61%
HRP      0.60%
EP        0.59%
Olive    0.47%
IND      0.31%
LAB      0.23%

PR breakdown
LDP     34.86%
KP       11.33%
JRP       8.95%
Protest  2.40% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      5.27%
CDP    18.90%
Left      8.00% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP       9.65%
EP        0.64%

District Right/Left balance is 61.24%/37.86% while the PR Right/Left balance is 57.54%/41.82%

The JRP incumbent is an ex-governor and used to be part of the DPJ which mean he is able to eat into some of the Center-Left PR vote.  Effective tactical voting by LDP PR voters for JRP as well as some cross voting by CDP/DPP PR voters for KP means that JCP is shut out of winning here just like 2016.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 12:36:10 pm
東京(Tokyo) (6- member)

LDP     19.88%  elected (incumbent)
KP       14.18%  elected (incumbent) (leader of KP)
JCP      12.28%  elected (incumbent)  
CDP     11.97%  elected
JRP       9.16%  elected
LDP      9.13%   elected (incumbent)
CDP      8.63%
RS        3.73%
DPP      3.25%
PNHK    2.25%
Right    1.59%
SDP      1.50%
HRP      0.59%
EP        0.47%
EP        0.41%
Olive    0.32%
INDs    0.67%

PR breakdown
LDP     32.59%
KP       11.54%
JRP       8.33%
Protest  2.64% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      4.74%
CDP    17.70%
Left     10.25% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP     11.30%
EP        0.93%

District Right/Left balance is 56.78%/41.67% while the PR Right/Left balance is 55.09%/43.98%

Inability to tactically vote relative to the Center-Right bloc led the Center-Left bloc to lose a CDP seat to JRP.  The LDP PR vote was able to effectively shift vote to JRP while KP ate into some of the CDP/DPP PR votes.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 12:41:48 pm
静岡(Shizuoka) (2- member)

LDP     38.55%  elected (incumbent)
DPP     29.36%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     19.88%
JCP       9.00%
PNHK    3.21%
 
PR breakdown
LDP     38.75%
KP       12.28%
JRP       5.17%
Protest  2.35% (PNHK HRP)
DPP    12.84%
CDP    14.62%
Left      5.52% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      8.05%
EP        0.43%

District Right/Left balance is 41.76%/58.24% while the PR Right/Left balance is 58.54%/41.03%

This race is really a battle between DPP incumbent and CDP.  The CDP candidate is 德川家廣(Tokugawa Iehiro) heir of the Tokugawa Shogunate.  In the end it was not enough for him to win.  This battle lead to all sorts of tactical voting by LDP KP and JRP PR voters between the CDP and DPP candidates.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 12:49:00 pm
愛知(Aichi) (4- member)

LDP     25.73%  elected (incumbent)
DPP     17.69%  elected (incumbent) (co-leader of DPP)
CDP     16.11%  elected
KP       15.82%  elected
JRP       9.39%
JCP       7.56%   
PNHK    2.98%
SDP      1.53%
EP        0.88%
LAB       0.62%
Olive     0.57%

PR breakdown
LDP     34.05%
KP       13.07%
JRP       8.32%
Protest  2.77% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      9.41%
CDP    17.94%
Left       6.01% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP       7.75%
EP        0.68%

District Right/Left balance is 53.92%/45.20% while the PR Right/Left balance is 58.21%/41.12%

Being the DPP candidate has a strong personal vote the tactical voting flow went from KP PR voter and even LDP PR voter to DPP even as LDP PR voters tactically voted for KP and somewhat for JRP.  The result was not much in doubt except for JRP came ahead of JCP which is another sign of the effectiveness of LDP PR tactical voting.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 12:56:00 pm
京都(Kyoto) (2- member)

LDP      44.21%  elected (incumbent)
JCP      25.83%  elected (incumbent)
CDP     24.36%
PNHK    3.92%
Olive     1.68%

PR breakdown
LDP     30.86%
KP       12.38%
JRP     11.60%
Protest  2.37% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      4.16%
CDP    14.63%
Left      6.11% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP     17.50%
EP        0.39%

District Right/Left balance is 48.13%/51.87% while the PR Right/Left balance is 57.21%/42.40%

The race was really a battle for second place between JCP and CDP.  CDP should have the edge given likely anti-JCP tactical voting by LDP KP and JRP PR voters.   But the CDP candidate is a LGBT activist which also provoked anti-CDP tactical voting.  In the end the JCP incumbent was able to pull through a victory.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 01:03:42 pm
大阪(Osaka) (4- member)

JRP     20.88%  elected
JRP     18.89%  elected (incumbent)
KP       16.93%  elected (incumbent)
LDP     16.01%  elected (incumbent)
JCP     10.93%              (incumbent)
CDP     10.19% 
DPP      3.71%
PNHK    1.25%
EP        0.42%
HRP     0.32%
Olive    0.27%
LAB      0.21%

PR breakdown
LDP     20.64%
KP       15.71%
JRP      35.14%
Protest  1.71% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      3.80%
CDP      8.41%
Left      4.54% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      9.64%
EP        0.42%

District Right/Left balance is 74.28%/25.30% while the PR Right/Left balance is 73.20%/26.39%

The only way CDP and JCP can deny the Center-Right bloc a 4 seat sweep is somehow tactically vote for the stronger of the two candidates.  Instead no such thing took place and even DPP PR voters loyally voted for the DPP candidate while CDP/DPP PR voters also seems to have leaked some votes to JRP and KP candidates making this the Center-Right bloc 4 seat sweep an easy affair.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 04:04:09 pm
兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member)
 
JRP      26.08%  elected (incumbent)
KP       22.91%  elected 
LDP     21.20%  elected 
CDP    19.78%
JCP       7.56%
PNHK    2.46%

PR breakdown
LDP     29.33%
KP       14.90%
JRP      21.67%
Protest  2.71% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      4.08%
CDP    13.42%
Left      5.29% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      8.25%
EP        0.35%

District Right/Left balance is 72.66%/27.34% while the PR Right/Left balance is 68.61%/31.04%

There were clear LDP PR tactical voting for KP and JRP, in fact in excess which almost cost LDP a seats.  There were also clear voting by DPP and even some CDP PR voters for KP.  At least here it seems there were some JCP PR tactical voting for CDP but it was not enough to take advantage of excessive tactical voting by LDP PR voters.  Close but no cigar.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 09:22:57 pm
広島(Hiroshima) (2- member)

OPPN   32.31%  elected (incumbent)
LDP     28.99%  elected
LDP     26.47%              (incumbent)
JCP       6.94%
PNHK    2.59%
Left      1.49%
LAB      1.21%
 
PR breakdown
LDP     40.66%
KP       14.50%
JRP       6.83%
Protest  2.33% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      7.23%
CDP    15.35%
Left      6.25% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      6.60%
EP        0.34%

District Right/Left balance is 58.05%/41.95% while the PR Right/Left balance is 64.23%/35.43%

Two different factions of the LDP both wanted to run so LDP high command decided to try to win both seats given the lean of the prefecture.  On paper LDP should be able to win both but it seems KP and JRP PR voters split their vote and many voted for the OPPN incumbent.  There were even tactical voting by JCP PR voters which worked to push the OPPN incumbent to first place and the win breaking the LDP plan to win both seats.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 10:01:46 pm
福岡(Fukuoka) (3- member)

LDP     33.19%  elected (incumbent)
KP       22.84%  elected
CDP     20.80%  elected (incumbent)
JCP       9.75%
PNHK    2.64%
EP        0.88%
HRP      0.88%
Olive     0.83%

PR breakdown
LDP     36.81%
KP       16.10%
JRP       5.96%
Protest  2.32% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      9.09%
CDP    13.77%
Left      6.30% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      9.06%
EP        0.58%

District Right/Left balance is 59.54%/39.57% while the PR Right/Left balance is 61.20%/38.22%

This race was not competitive since it is clear that LDP KP and CDP will win the 3 seats.   There seems to be the similar LDP PR tactical voting for KP while JRP PR voters seems splits their votes between LDP and CDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2019, 10:02:48 pm
LDP 2016-2019 PR vote swing

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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 28, 2019, 11:23:34 am
If the 2019 PR vote were translated to Lower House PR seat allocation method we get

北海道 (Hokkaido)      2017   2019   (8 seats)
LDP                             3        4
KP                               1        1
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       1        0
CDP                            3        2
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             0        1


東北(Tohoku)            2017   2019   (13 seats)
LDP                             5        7
KP                               1        1
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       3        1
CDP                            3        3
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             1        1


北関東 (North Kanto)  2017   2019   (19 seats)
LDP                             7        8
KP                               2        3
JRP                             0        1
HP/DPP                       4        1
CDP                            5        4
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             1        2


南関東 (South Kanto) 2017   2019   (22 seats)
LDP                             8        9
KP                               2        3
JRP                             1        2
HP/DPP                       4        1
CDP                            5        4
RS                                        1 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             2        2


東京 (Tokyo)            2017   2019   (17 seats)
LDP                             6        7
KP                               2        2
JRP                             0        1
HP/DPP                       3        1
CDP                            4        3
RS                                        1 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             2        2


北陸信越
(Hokurikushinetsu)   2017   2019   (11 seats)
LDP                             5        6
KP                               1        1
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       2        1
CDP                            2        2
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             1        1


東海 (Tokai)              2017   2019   (21 seats)
LDP                             7        9
KP                               2        3
JRP                             1        1
HP/DPP                       5        2
CDP                            5        4
RS                                        1 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             1        1


近畿 (Kinki)              2017   2019   (28 seats)
LDP                             9        8
KP                               4        4
JRP                             5        8
HP/DPP                       3        1
CDP                            5        3
RS                                        1 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             2        3


中国(Chugoku)         2017   2019   (11 seats)
LDP                             5        6
KP                               2        2
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       2        1
CDP                            2        2
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             0        0


四国 (Shikoku)         2017   2019   (6 seats)
LDP                             3        4
KP                               1        1
JRP                             0        0
HP/DPP                       1        0
CDP                            1        1
RS                                        0 
SDP                            0        0
JCP                             0        0


九州 (Kyūshū)            2017   2019   (20 seats)
LDP                             7        9
KP                               3        3
JRP                             1        1
HP/DPP                       4        1
CDP                            3        3
RS                                        1 
SDP                            1        1
JCP                             1        1


Total                        2017   2019   (176 seats)
LDP                           65      77
KP                             21      24
JRP                             8      14
HP/DPP                      32      10
CDP                           38      31
RS                                        5 
SDP                            1        1
JCP                           11      14

LDP tend to over-perform on the PR section in Upper House elections. But clearly in 2019 LDP and JRP regained some ground lost to HP in 2017.  In the meantime JCP and RS gains at the expense of CDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 28, 2019, 09:35:30 pm
Looking at the mutli-member district results one can derive some trends.

a) Both KP and JRP have their core vote that will loyally for for their party's candidate if they nominate one in said district.  But if said party does not nominate a candidate while in theory the KP and JRP supporters should vote LDP in reality there are significant defections.
b) Among the LDP voter base there seems to be a a significant bloc of voters that will tactically vote for KP and/or JRP to help to get them over the line versus a Center-Left of JCP candidate.

Some key data points to this fact.  If you compare the LDP-KP-JRP PR vote share with the LDP and LDP+KP+JRP candidate votes in district seats and split them out by the 5 prefectures where LDP ran without either a KP nor JRP candidate and compare them to the 6 prefecture where LDP JRP and KP all nominated candidates you get

                                                                                     Average                  Average
                                                                             LDP+KP+JRP district   LDP+KP+JRP PR
5 prefectures where there is KP nor JRP candidate             48.20%                   56.29%
6 prefectures where LDP KP and JPR ran candidates           60.16%                   58.94%

In the 6 prefectures where where LDP KP and JRP all ran, the LDP vote share is always below the LPD PR vote share. KP and JRP candidates exceeded their parties PR vote share in all cases.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 29, 2019, 04:23:31 am
No post-election bounce in terms of Abe cabinet approval

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CDP support surges post election along with some of the other smaller parties while LDP support falls slightly
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Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 29, 2019, 04:25:37 am
In a blow and embarrassment to the JRP the 丸山穂高(Maruyama Hodaka) scandal continues to drag on.   Maruyama is the JRP winner of the 大阪(Osaka) 19th district seat 3 elections in a row.  In May he visited one of the four four Russian-held islands off Hokkaido that Japan claims.  It seems he got drunk and started say to the local Japanese leader that "War between Japan and Russia is the only way to resolve the dispute over these island" and "Are there women?" and "I want to go out to grope breasts."

Once these comments made its way to the media there has been an uproar with Maruyama having to resign from JRP and now under pressure to resign his seat.  There will be a Lower House censure of Maruyama which is not legally binding for him to resign his seat.  JRP will not nominate him next election for sure but it seems the damage to the JRP is already done.

丸山穂高(Maruyama Hodaka), who was expelled from JRP and refused to resign despite an unanimous motion of censure calling on him to resign, has joined PNHK.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 29, 2019, 12:00:04 pm
To get a sense of the relative strength and reliance on the personal vote I broke out the PR vote for each party into votes for a candidate and votes for the party itself.

        PR Vote        Personal Vote        Party Vote
LDP   35.37%              9.98%             25.39%
KP     13.05%              4.50%              8.56% 
JRP     9.80%               1.38%              8.42%
PNHK  1.97%               0.29%              1.68%
HRP    0.40%               0.09%              0.32%
DPP    6.95%               2.61%              4.34%
CDP  15.81%               2.44%            13.38%
Olive   0.34%               0.06%              0.27% 
RS      4.55%               2.11%              2.45%
SDP    2.09%               0.57%              1.52%
LAB    0.16%                0.04%             0.12%       
JCP     8.95%               0.86%              8.09%
EP      0.54%               0.07%              0.54%   

First, the KP personal vote is bogus. All of them were voted for by instruction from KP High command.  For KP you can pretty much assume that there is NO personal vote and all the vote are for KP the party.  Beyond that the size of the LDP personal vote is large.  Many represent key interest groups/constituencies or are regional kingpins.   The DPP PR vote is also fairly dependent on the personal vote most of which are Rengo labor union vote.

Examples of powerful LDP key interest groups/constituencies PR candidates are the top two finishers on the LDP list  柘植芳文(Tsuge Yoshifumi) who used to be the head of the powerful National Post Office and as mentioned before 山田太郎 (Tarō Yamada) who now controls the "geek vote."

I looked around and constructed a list of local kingpins and tried to compute their impact on the PR vote of their party in said prefecture

Name                   Party     National PR    Prefecture    Prefecture      Prefecture     Prefecture 
                                           vote                           personal vote      Party PR    Party PR 2017
和田政宗                               228K             宮城            35K
(Masamune Wada)   LDP       0.58%        (Miyagi)         3.67%            39.61%         34.78%

佐藤信秋                               233K             新潟             29K
(Satō Nobuaki)        LDP       0.46%        (Niigata)        2.91%           43.73%          38.24%
 
宮本周司                               202K             石川             63K
(Miyamoto Shūji)     LDP       0.40%       (Ishikawa)     14.52%           51.47%          43.32%

北村経夫                               178K            山口              35K
(Kitamura Tsuneo)   LDP       0.36%      (Yamaguchi)     9.89%           50.24%          48.12%

衛藤晟一                               155K            大分              38K
(Etō Seiichi)            LDP       0.31%         (Ōita)            8.05%          37.45%          32.48%

木村義雄                                 92K            香川             21K
(Kimura Yoshio)       LDP       0.18%      (Kagawa)         5.80%           43.28%          39.64%

吉田忠智                               149K           大分              48K
(Yoshida Tadatomo) SDP      0.30%         (Ōita)          10.06%           15.51%          11.85%

鈴木宗男                              221K           北海道            94K
(Suzuki Muneo)       JRP      0.44%       (Hokkaido)       3.96%             7.78%           2.76%

柴田巧                                  54K             富山              33K
(Shibata Takumi)     JRP      0.11%       (Toyama)        8.26%            14.54%           7.04%

和田政宗((Masamune Wada) of 宮城(Miyagi) was from a YP background and found himself as the had of the rump PJK which he merged into LDP earlier in 2019.

北村経夫((Kitamura Tsuneo) of 山口(Yamaguchi) had a bigger impact than these numbers suggest since this is Abe's home prefecture and Abe running here clearly pushed up LDP PR vote here in 2017.

吉田忠智(Yoshida Tadatomo) of 大分(Ōita) is the former head of SDP.

鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) of 北海道(Hokkaido) is the head of LDP splinter NPD which used to be allied with DPJ but these days are aligned with LDP.



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: xelas81 on July 29, 2019, 12:30:22 pm
To get a sense of the relative strength and reliance on the personal vote I broke out the PR vote for each party into votes for a candidate and votes for the party itself.

        PR Vote        Personal Vote        Party Vote
LDP   35.37%              9.98%             25.39%
KP     13.05%              4.50%              8.56% 
JRP     9.80%               1.38%              8.42%
PNHK  1.97%               0.29%              1.68%
HRP    0.40%               0.09%              0.32%
DPP    6.95%               2.61%              4.34%
CDP  15.81%               2.44%            13.38%
Olive   0.34%               0.06%              0.27% 
RS      4.55%               2.11%              2.45%
SDP    2.09%               0.57%              1.52%
LAB    0.16%                0.04%             0.12%       
JCP     8.95%               0.86%              8.09%
EP      0.54%               0.07%              0.54%   

First, the KP personal vote is bogus. All of them were voted for by instruction from KP High command.  For KP you can pretty much assume that there is NO personal vote and all the vote are for KP the party.  Beyond that the size of the LDP personal vote is large.  Many represent key interest groups/constituencies or are regional kingpins.   The DPP PR vote is also fairly dependent on the personal vote most of which are Rengo labor union vote.

Examples of powerful LDP key interest groups/constituencies PR candidates are the top two finishers on the LDP list  柘植芳文(Tsuge Yoshifumi) who used to be the head of the powerful National Post Office and as mentioned before 山田太郎 (Tarō Yamada) who now controls the "geek vote."

I looked around and constructed a list of local kingpins and tried to compute their impact on the PR vote of their party in said prefecture

Name                   Party     National PR    Prefecture    Prefecture      Prefecture     Prefecture 
                                           vote                           personal vote      Party PR    Party PR 2017
和田政宗                               228K             宮城            35K
(Masamune Wada)   LDP       0.58%        (Miyagi)         3.67%            39.61%         34.78%

佐藤信秋                               233K             新潟             29K
(Satō Nobuaki)        LDP       0.46%        (Niigata)        2.91%           43.73%          38.24%
 
宮本周司                               202K             石川             63K
(Miyamoto Shūji)     LDP       0.40%       (Ishikawa)     14.52%           51.47%          43.32%

北村経夫                               178K            山口              35K
(Kitamura Tsuneo)   LDP       0.36%      (Yamaguchi)     9.89%           50.24%          48.12%

衛藤晟一                               155K            大分              38K
(Etō Seiichi)            LDP       0.31%         (Ōita)            8.05%          37.45%          32.48%

木村義雄                                 92K            香川             21K
(Kimura Yoshio)       LDP       0.18%      (Kagawa)         5.80%           43.28%          39.64%

吉田忠智                               149K           大分              48K
(Yoshida Tadatomo) SDP      0.30%         (Ōita)          10.06%           15.51%          11.85%

鈴木宗男                              221K           北海道            94K
(Suzuki Muneo)       JRP      0.44%       (Hokkaido)       3.96%             7.78%           2.76%

柴田巧                                  54K             富山              33K
(Shibata Takumi)     JRP      0.11%       (Toyama)        8.26%            14.54%           7.04%

和田政宗((Masamune Wada) of 宮城(Miyagi) was from a YP background and found himself as the had of the rump PJK which he merged into LDP earlier in 2019.

北村経夫((Kitamura Tsuneo) of 山口(Yamaguchi) had a bigger impact than these numbers suggest since this is Abe's home prefecture and Abe running here clearly pushed up LDP PR vote here in 2017.

吉田忠智(Yoshida Tadatomo) of 大分(Ōita) is the former head of SDP.

鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) of 北海道(Hokkaido) is the head of LDP splinter NPD which used to be allied with DPJ but these days are aligned with LDP.


The candidates with most personal votes but did not win are DPP's 石上俊雄 and 田中久弥 with 192k and 143k and LDP's 比嘉奈津美 with 114k votes.
The candidate with least personal votes but still was elected is the 7th KP PR winner 塩田博昭
 with just 15k votes.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 29, 2019, 03:17:50 pm

The candidates with most personal votes but did not win are DPP's 石上俊雄 and 田中久弥 with 192k and 143k and LDP's 比嘉奈津美 with 114k votes.
The candidate with least personal votes but still was elected is the 7th KP PR winner 塩田博昭
 with just 15k votes.


Well for that honor RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) clearly takes that prize by winning 992K vote but not winning a seat.  Of course he is another example of someone with a large personal vote and pretty much carried RS to 2 seats.

With 992,267.053 votes RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is the higher vote winner on the PR slate and second high vote winner in the entire election only coming behind 東京(Tokyo) LDP's 丸川珠代(Marukawa Tamayo).  Yet 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  did not win a seat since RS only won 2 PR seats and he placed 2  "specific quota" candidates on the RS list ahead of him.

Note that the vote count 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) won was 992,267.053.  The reason for fractional vote are because voters write down the name of the candidate they want to vote for.  If someone wrote just  "山本" or Yamamoto on the PR vote the vote is split proportionally between all the PR candidates that has  "山本" or Yamamoto  as their last name.  There are at least 3 more PR candidates with "山本" or Yamamoto as the last name (1 LDP and 2 KP).



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 29, 2019, 07:09:52 pm
The race in 鹿児島(Kagoshima) was interesting since there a significant LDP rebel rose to take on the LDP incumbent in addition to the OPPN candidate.  The result was

LDP          47.35%
OPPN        34.40%
LDP rebel  18.25%

PR breakdown
LDP     43.54%
KP       14.51%
JRP       7.16%
Protest  1.95% (PNHK HRP)
DPP      5.06%
CDP    13.35%
Left      8.26% (SDP RS Olive LAB)
JCP      5.78%
EP        0.40%

Using regression analysis of similar districts I conclude that had the LDP rebel not run the result should have been

LDP   61.49%
OPPN 38.51%

In many FPTP races when there is a LDP rebel running often that drives Opposition votes toward the LDP rebel or the official LDP candidate.  This time for once the LDP rebel took more from the LDP candidate than OPPN if my regression is correct.



Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 29, 2019, 09:36:01 pm
ex-YP leader 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) who was elected on the JRP PR list in 2016 but have since became an independent and reformed the YP has decided to caucus with PNHK.  Now on paper PNHK will have 3 MPs since disgraced 丸山穂高(Maruyama Hodaka) also joined PNHK just a day ago.  It seems PNHK's goal is to get to 5 MPs so they can be eligible for government funding as they failed to pass the 2% threshold on the PR slate to qualify for funding.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 30, 2019, 04:12:37 pm
The KP PR results are interesting and the looking at them gives clear signs of their mobilization  strategy.    

KP's main goals on PR is to: show their power to their LDP partners so LDP would be too scared to dump KP.  The way they do that is to concentrate their votes on to their top N PR candidates.  In this case N = 6 which means KP targeted getting getting a minimum 6 PR seats even though they ended up with 7.  The PR personal vote are

 Candidate                                   Votes          Tenure
山本香苗 (Yamamoto Kanae)           594K       First elected 2001
山本博司 (Yamamoto Hiroshi)          472K       First elected 2007
若松謙維(Kaneshige Wakamatsu)     342K       First elected 2013 (but had been Lower House before)
河野義博(Kawano Yoshihiro)              329K       First elected 2013
新妻秀規(Niizuma Hideki)                281K       First elected 2013
平木大作(Hiraki Daisaku)                183K       First elected 2019
塩田博昭(Shiota Hiroaki)                  15K        First elected 2019
#8 candidate                                   8K
...
...
...

Note the massive drop-off after the 6th candidate.

The KP also allocated "prefectures" to each of the top 6 candidates where 50%-60% of the said prefecture PR vote went to the PR candidate that got assigned to it and the vast majority of the remaining KP PR vote in the prefecture are a party vote for KP.  The prefecture allocations are

山本香苗 (Yamamoto Kanae): 福井(Fukui), 滋賀(Shiga), 京都(Kyoto), 大阪(Osaka), 奈良(Nara), 和歌山   (Wakayama)

山本博司 (Yamamoto Hiroshi): 鳥取(Tottori), 島根(Shimane), 岡山(Okayama), 広島(Hiroshima), 山口(Yamaguchi), 徳島(Tokushima), 香川(Kagawa), 愛媛(Ehime), 高知(Kōchi)

若松謙維(Kaneshige Wakamatsu): 北海道(Hokkaido),青森(Aomori), 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 秋田(Akita), 山形(Yamagata), 福島(Fukushima)

河野義博(Kawano Yoshihiro): 佐賀(Saga). 長崎(Nagasaki), 熊本(Kumamoto), 大分(Ōita), 宮崎(Miyazaki), 鹿児島(Kagoshima), 沖縄(Okinawa)

平木大作(Hiraki Daisaku): 富山(Toyama), 石川(Ishikawa), 岐阜(Gifu),  静岡(Shizuoka), 三重(Mie)

塩田博昭(Shiota Hiroaki): 茨城(Ibarak)i, 栃木(Tochigi), 群馬(Gunma), 千葉(Chiba), 山梨(Yamanashi), 新潟(Niigata)

In all these "assigned" prefectures the result was the same: 60%-70% of the KP PR vote for the assigned PR candidate, 1%-2% for other KP PR candidates, rest vote for KP party without a candidate.  The main exception are the prefectures assigned to the 6th and least tenured candidate out of the 6 塩田博昭(Shiota Hiroaki) where the results look like 15%-20% of the PR vote goes to the assigned KP PR candidate, 3%-4% goes to other KP PR candidates and the rest goes to KP the party.  I guess the idea is that as the least tenured of the 6 he gets the least level of mobilization.  

The 6 prefectures where there a PR candidate was not assigned are: 埼玉(Saitama), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 東京(Tokyo), 愛知(Aichi), 兵庫(Hyōgo), 福岡(Fukuoka)

This list are the 6 out of 7 prefectures where a KP candidate was contesting the district race.  Only 大阪(Osaka) out of the 7 was assigned a PR candidate.  In these 6 prefectures it is 4%-9% of the KP PR vote are scatter among the KP PR candidates while the rest are for the KP party.

Prefecture                   KP PR vote  KP district vote    Ratio
埼玉(Saitama)                14.50%            19.12%        131.88%
神奈川(Kanagawa)        11.33%            16.89%        149.09%
東京(Tokyo)                    11.54%            14.18%        122.90%
愛知(Aichi)                     13.07%             15.82%        121.00%
大阪(Osaka)                   15.71%             16.93%        107.77%
兵庫(Hyōgo)                   14.90%             22.91%        153.79%
福岡(Fukuoka)               16.10%              22.84%        141.87%

So now it is clear what the KP High command assessment of the station:

Out out of the 7 district seats KP is contesting, 大阪(Osaka) seems safe.   In 愛知(Aichi), 兵庫(Hyōgo), and 福岡(Fukuoka) we have a non-incumbent running so we have to mobilize there to make sure they are elected.   There are signs that high turnout in 神奈川(Kanagawa) and 埼玉(Saitama) could mean we could lose so we make to mobilize there as well.  For 東京(Tokyo) our party leader is running so we better make sure we mobilize so he does not lose face by winning by a small margin.  For the rest of the prefectures including 大阪(Osaka) lets mobilize there to make sure our voters vote for the assigned PR candidate.  Oh, hold off on our efforts for 塩田博昭(Shiota Hiroaki) in 茨城(Ibarak)i, 栃木(Tochigi), 群馬(Gunma), 千葉(Chiba), 山梨(Yamanashi), 新潟(Niigata) since he is new and does not deserve an all out effort for our tenured PR candidates.

Since what KP wants their cadres to do is what exactly takes place it is easy to construct the orders/edits of KP High Command by looking at the results.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on July 31, 2019, 07:07:07 pm
One thing that got demonstrated at by the Upper House elections is that a Center-Left-JCP alliance in 1- member district can work on mass basis which span DPP to JCP.  I did some district by district analysis and assuming turnout rises which would help CDP I think a possible Lower House election result with such a broad opposition alliance would be something like

Prefecture               Seats     LDP-KP  Grand Alliance   JRP    
北海道(Hokkaido)       12           5                7
青森(Aomori)              3            3                0
岩手(Iwate)                3            1                2
宮城Miyagi)                6            3                3
秋田(Akita)                 3            2                1
山形(Yamagata)          3            3                0
福島(Fukushima)         5            2                3
茨城(Ibaraki)              7            4                3
栃木(Tochigi)              5            4                 1
群馬(Gunma)              5            5                0
埼玉(Saitama)          15            8                 7
千葉(Chiba)              13            8                5
神奈川(Kanagawa)    18           11                7
山梨(Yamanashi)        2             1                1
東京(Tokyo)             25           13               12
新潟(Niigata)             6             2                4
富山(Toyama)            3             3                0
石川(Ishikawa)          3             2                1
福井(Fukui)               2             2                0
長野(Nagano)            5             2                3
岐阜(Gifu)                 5             4                1
静岡(Shizuoka)          8             6                2
愛知(Aichi)              15             4               11
三重(Mie)                  4             2                2
滋賀(Shiga)               4             3                1
京都(Kyoto)               6             3                3
大阪(Osaka)            19             9                2                8
兵庫(Hyōgo)            12           12                0
奈良(Nara)                3             2                1
和歌山(Wakayama)    3             2                1
鳥取(Tottori)             2             2                0
島根(Shimane)          2             2                0
岡山(Okayama)         5             5                0
広島(Hiroshima)        7             6                1
山口(Yamaguchi)       4             4                0
徳島(Tokushima)       2             2                0
香川(Kagawa)           3             1                2
愛媛(Ehime)             4              3               1
高知(Kōchi)              2              1               1
福岡(Fukuoka)        11              9               2
佐賀(Saga)               2              0               2
長崎(Nagasaki)         4              3               1
熊本(Kumamoto)      4              4                0
大分(Ōita)                3              2               1
宮崎(Miyazaki)          3             3                0
鹿児島(Kagoshima)   4              3               1
沖縄(Okinawa)         4              1               3
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                   289           182             99               8


PR vote share would be something like (diff relative to 2019 PR performance)

LDP   34.37% (-1.00%)
KP     12.39% (-0.66%)
JRP     8.72% (-1.08%)
PNHK  0.96% (-1.01%)
DPP    7.33% (+0.38%)
CDP  21.50% (+5.68%)
RS     3.23% (-1.33%)
SDP   1.68% (-0.41%)
JCP    8.88% (-0.07%)

Higher turnout will help CDP while the LDP PR candidate personal vote not be there to help LDP.  DPP gains by higher turnout but loses as their PR candidate personal vote will not be able to help.  RS will fall which helps both CDP and JCP and blunts the fall of JCP due to higher turnout.  I suspect I might be underestimating how much RS will fall without 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) at the top of the ticket.    

Seat wise these vote share would create results something like

                                          LDP   KP  JRP DPP CDP  RS SDP JCP   Total
北海道(Hokkaido)                    3     1                  3                 1         8
東北(Tohoku)                          6     1            1    4                 1       13
北関東(North Kanto)                7     3    1      1    5                 2       19
南関東(South Kanto)                8     3    1      1    6     1          2       22
東京(Tokyo)                            6     2    1      1    4      1         2       17
北陸信越(Hokurikushinetsu)      5     1            1    3                1        11
東海(Tokai)                             8     3    1      3    5                1       21
近畿(Kinki)                             8     4    7      1    5                3       28
中国(Chugoku)                       6     2            1    2                          11
四国(Shikoku)                        4     1                  1                            6
九州(Kyūshū)                         8     3    1      1    4           1     1       20
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                   69   24   12    12   42    2    1    14     176

Which would produce

             District     PR    Total
LDP         174         69     243
KP              8         24       32
JRP             8         12      20
DPP          36          12      48
CDP          52          42      94
RS              0           2        2
SDP            1           1        2
JCP             1         14      15
OPPN          9                     9
---------------------------------------------
Total       289       176     465

LDP at 243 which is just past majority
LDP+KP+JRP = 295 which just misses 2/3 majority.
11 out of the 52 CDP district winners are independent incumbents that caucus with CDP which I assume will run with CDP.  1 out of the 36 are DPP is an independent incumbent that caucus with DPP which I assume will run with DPP.
6 out of 9 OPPN winners are members of DPJ ex-PM 野田佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko) group which clearly would align with DPP versus CDP.  Other 3 OPPN are also more likely to align with DPP versus CDP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on August 04, 2019, 08:55:26 am
Since the "on paper" pro-Constitutional revision bloc is only a few seats away from 2/3 majority any shift of even one seats could make a difference. The next upcoming variable is the 埼玉(Saitama) governor race of 8/25 where the incumbent with a DPJ background choose to not run for re-election.

The DP winner and now of the DPP of the 2016 埼玉(Saitama) Upper House district election 大野元裕 (Ōno Motohiro) has resigned from DPP to run asa the joint opposition candidate of CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP.  A pro LDP-KP independent who has a professional baseball background will of course run.   Also in the fray is 行田邦子(Kōda Kuniko) who has a DPJ background but then went over to YP and then HP.  She was elected in the 埼玉(Saitama) district race in 2007 as DPJ and in 2013 as YP.  She choose not to run for re-election in 2019 given her dim chances and instead choose to run for the governor race.  She will of course target the Third Pole vote.  PNHK will also be in the fray as well as a few minor candidates one of who seems to have a Left wing background.

If 大野元裕(Ōno Motohiro) were to win which is a real possibility given JCP support then there will have to be a by-election for 埼玉(Saitama) Upper House district race.  Even with if the Center-Left Opposition can form an alliance with JCP, unless a Third Pole candidate emerges the LDP is more likely than the Center-Left Opposition to win the low turnout by-election.  If that were to take place then Abe is one more seat closer to getting a theoretical 2/3 majority. 


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on August 05, 2019, 06:09:46 am
PNHK leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) speaks at Foreign Press club

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNcA0FaCnZI&t=0s

Things that came out is

a) While 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) has offered to support Abe's Constitutional Revision in return for Abe backing his plan to limit payment of NHK license fees only to those that watch NHK he is open to making similar deals with the Center-Left Opposition if they are in a position to give him what he wants

b) 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) is very much focused on direct democracy on other issues and PNHK does not take a stand on issues outside of the NHK issue.

c) Now that PNHK is in the Upper House it seems that within NHK is now obligated to cover PNHK. There seems to be a lot of NHK infighting as no one wants to be assigned to cover PNHK.

Overall it seems NHK fees amount to $200-$400 a year per household so it is non-trivial amount especially for those that do not watch NHK.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on August 11, 2019, 08:30:54 am
2019 LDP PR vote
()


2019 KP PR vote
The KP vote lean is more and more toward the rural South with declining base in Tokyo and suburbs
()


2019 CDP PR vote
CDP PR vote seems inversely correlated with KP vote with the exception of the Tokyo suburbs.
()


2019 DPP PR vote
DPP support tend to be clustered around certain rural pocks and fairly weak in urban centers.
()


2019 JRP PR vote
Obviously strong in Osaka region.  Impact of 鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) in certain parts of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 柴田巧(Takumi Shibata) in certain parts of  富山(Toyama) are clear.
()


2019 JCP PR vote
()


2019 RS PR vote
As expected concentration in Tokyo urban and suburban areas.
()


2019 SDP PR vote
SDP support is based in the Deep South of 九州(Kyushu) and especially 大分(Ōita) and 沖縄(Okinawa)
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on August 11, 2019, 08:38:15 am
2017 to 2019 CDP swing.  The CDP surge in 青森(Aomori) seems to be about a good part of the 2017 HP vote shifting over to CDP where as in other parts of the Northeast more of the 2017 HP vote went to LDP.   I suspect in this case LDP did not run a strong 青森(Aomori) based candidate on its PR list and failed to pull in some of the personal vote that it got in other Northern prefectures.  In the rest of Japan it is about CDP giving back some of its 2017 surge to JCP as well as RS taking some Center-Left votes away.

Low turnout clearly hurt CDP
()


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: urutzizu on August 11, 2019, 09:17:29 am
Great Maps. Is there a reason for the JCP strength around Kyoto and Kochi?
I seem to remember that these were the also the only two district seats that JCP won back in 1996.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on August 11, 2019, 03:02:44 pm
Great Maps. Is there a reason for the JCP strength around Kyoto and Kochi?
I seem to remember that these were the also the only two district seats that JCP won back in 1996.

In both prefectures the local unions lean JCP whereas in the rest of Japan unions tend to lean Rengo which has backed DPJ in the past and now DPP.  In addition Kyoto has a large university population which also lean JCP.


Title: Re: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
Post by: jaichind on August 14, 2019, 11:36:34 am
Japanese blogger miraisyakai focused on the CDP PR vote and the extent that the fall of the CDP PR vote from 2017 are due to losses to RS.

2019 CDP+RS vs 2017 CDP PR vote
()

He focused first on the fairly urban 関東(Kantō) region which are 茨城(Ibaraki), 栃木(Tochigi),  群馬(Gunma), 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 山梨(Yamanashi), and 東京(Tokyo)

He mapped the 2017 CDP PR vote in  関東(Kantō)
()

And noted that CDP+RS 2019 vote is similar to the 2017 CDP vote in the 関東(Kantō) region
()

To the 2019 CDP+RS PR vote in 関東(Kantō)
()

He did a comparison regression between 2017 CDP vote vs 2019 CDP+RS vote (Left) and 2017 CDP vote vs 2019 CDP (Right) to show that higher correlation for the 2017 CDP vote vs 2019 CDP+RS vote implie