Talk Elections

What if Hillary defeated Obama for the 2008 Democratic nomination?

I feel like we've discussed this way too many times.

Hillary trades North Carolina and Indiana for Missouri.

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Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR) - 346 EV
Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) - 192 EV

How about maps for Clinton vs. McCain with no recession and no Palin?

Would McCain have picked Palin if Hillary was his opponent?

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Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh: 325 EV, 51.06%

John McCain/Eric Cantor: 213 EV, 47.19%

Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Colorado, and Ohio are the closest states in that order.

Possibly...as Palin would have blunted the advantage Hillary would have gotten by being the first female Presidential nominee. Other possibilities include Lisa Murkowski and Kay Bailey Hutchison if he feels he needs to go that route.

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Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) / Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) / Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)

Closest states are: IN (Hillary would've lost it if she picked any other running mate), MO, NC, OH, WV, FL, VA, and CO.

NOTE: If she picks Pryor as her running mate she probably wins AR instead of IN, and if she picks Manchin as her running mate she probably wins WV instead of IN.

Obama's actual 08 results - Indiana and North Carolina, but with the additions of Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, and MAYBE Kentucky.

Exit polls from 2008 contained a question asking how voters would have voted if Hillary were on the ballot as the Democratic nominee. Those results indicate that Hillary would have won the PV by about 11%. Assuming an even shift in the PV nationwide, this would have resulted in MO and possibly MT shifting to Hillary, giving her either 376 or 379 EVs.

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Arizona is sticking with its Senator John McCain. Obama's win in Indiana was a fluke, the only way I see her winning it is if Bayh is her running mate. If he's not on the ticket, Indiana narrowly stays Republican. Georgia, North Carolina, and West Virginia probably don't flip either.

In exit polling, Clinton outpolled Obama.

That's because Clinton wasn't the nominee. If she did win the nomination, she probably loses Indiana, North Carolina and NE-2 from Obama's 2008 map, but she probably gains Missouri (plus Arkansas if she picks Blanche Lincoln or Mark Pryor, or she holds Indiana if she picks Evan Bayh, or she picks up Tennessee if she picks Phil Bresdsen).

I don't think she would have outperformed as much as polls show, but she did seem to be a stronger candidate then.

I agree that Clinton was stronger than Obama in 2008, however I still find it unlikely she'd carry Arizona over their favorite son. Also, without extensive African-American turnout, it's unlikely she'll carry Georgia and North Carolina. Virginia will be decided by a much thinner line.

The polls from May showed Obama polling better in general. Of course she'd have been stronger in some areas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Democratic_nominee_vs._Republican_nominee_2

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Hillary Clinton (NY)/Bill Richardson (NM)
John McCain (AZ)/Mike Steele (MD)

This, except I'd flip Arizona, Georgia, Kentucky and South Dakota over to McCain.

Hillary Clinton: 393 EVs
John McCain: 145 EVs

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338: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh - 51.8%
200: John McCain/Charlie Crist - 45.3%
Others - 2.9%