Talk Elections

I'm voting no but I won't be suprised if he does. Still I would be quite suprised if he gets above 43%.

No

Like I said in the other thread, once he gets his name and record out there he can.

The more interesting question might be if he wins Nassau and Suffolk counties and Staten Island.

I'd say no for Nassau but don't know about the other two.

Could be wrong but I'd expect someone like Weld to have more appeal in a place like Suffolk than a place like Staten Island.

Do NOT underestimate Weld he is an eminently credible candidate for the GOP in New York and is a strong campaigner with a strong record to fight from.

His entry into the race is by and large the worst thing that could have happened, from a Dem point of view, bar Rudy Guiliani entering it.

All that said Spitzer is way ahead in the polls and fundraising and has his party lock-stock behind him, Weld however is way behind though once he gets his name recognition up that will change. What’s more the GOP in New York is suffering and after more than a decade of Pataki’s brand of Rockefeller Republicanism the state’s itching for a change and looks to be opting for Spitzer’s brand of tough love – populism.

In the end I think that Weld will break 40%, but Spitzer will be in the region of 55-60%, but an upset could happen, though its unlikely, thankfully.         

Nassau county no, Staten Island & Suffolk are possiblle athough I would say still would lean towards Spitzer (will be fairly close).  A Weld type candidate could do decent here, Golisano would rip into his margins upstate (due to social conservatives). 

Either way Spitzer is unbeatable so it doesn't really matter at this point.  However a problem the Republicans run into is ithe differences within their own ranks in different parts of the state.  A socially moderate to liberal Republican can do decently in Staten Island, Westchester & Long Island, but would have some issues from upstate conservatives if someone like Golisano ran on a 3rd party.  They run a more mainline conservative to appease the upstate Republicans than the downstate Republicans (Long Island, Westchester & Staten Island)  flee towards the Dems

Staten Island has traditonally been more Republican than Suffolk

No,  Spitzer is just too strong, also Weld could be hurt by Upstate Conservative Republicans who vote 3rd party, though I think Spitzer will probably top 60% anyway

Barring some major scandal he is.  When someone as well known as Spitzer is has disapprovals in the teens & generally has an approval- dispproval gap of 50% he is virtually impossible to beat, the only one with a chane is Rudy & he isn't running.

Probably.  The problem though for him would be whether the Conservative Party backs him.  He's extremely liberal on social issues and it's a big leap for some of the conservative party leaders to support him.  If they do, he probably loses by about 10-15%.  Without them, he doesn't break 40%.

I'd consider supporting Weld, I like him personally, he's probably closer to me politically than Spitzer, and I have no problem voting Republicans into state offices if I like them.  Federal elections are a different story.

Um...you don't think Weld will actually be the nominee, do you?

who else does the NYGOP have?  Golisano I guess, but I don't think Golisano would get the nomination.

This reminds me of a year back when people told me "Toomey could never beat Specter.  Well, He might not of, but it certainly would not have taken much.

If I were living in New York and could vote, I would be split.  I don't really know Spitzer's views that much.  All I know is that he chopped a lot of heads off.  Could some one tell me what kind of Democrat he is?

The odds are stacked against him.  He seems like a replica of Pataki.  NY is tired of Pataki.

Spitzer is an ass, but in NY that's hardly a problem. He looks like a mix of Rendell and Carville, which needless to say means very sketchy.

I don't think Weld or any Republican I've heard of has much of a chance of winning the governorship of New York.

Pataki is so close to a Democrat anyway; why not have the real thing?

But I think it's supremely foolish to start judging victory margins this far out, before the campaign has even started.  Only a rookie would make that mistake, either in the potential Weld-Spitzer race, or in the Pirro-Ceausescu (oops, I meant Clinton) race.

and this reminds me of the Republicans who thought Obama was beatable

i wont say its definite, but i will say that hes got the chance.

Obama was a shoo-in from day one. Pre-scandal breaking, he led his original opponent by 10 points.

and we all know a 10 point gap never closes. 

Presumably Senator Bowles told you that? :)

that's right.  :)

by the way, bowles is set to become president of the 16 campus unc system.  a pretty prestigious job.  perhaps his political career isnt over yet after all.

Bingo

Bowles will run for senate once more, probably in 2008 if Dole retires.  I don't think he wins however.

You really can't compare.  Spitzer is very popular in the state now.  Even when the talk that Toomey couldn't beat Specter in the primary, Specter was someone that many PA republicans had mixed views on.  He sure as hell didn't have the +45- +50% net approval among his own party that Spitzer has now statewide.  Not saying it will stay that insanley strong throughout, but Spitzer is a much more popular figure statewide in NY than Specter ever was among PA Republicans

Spitzer is already at 60%. The best Weld could hope for is like a 60-39 Spitzer win.

Yea because poll numbers can't change...

I think I'm being generous assuming that all of the undeciededs break for Weld, except that Conservative party nominee will get something too. Let's face it, a social moderate who had some beers with Kerry when he was running against him is not getting the Conservative party nomination.

Weld has very little chance of winning.  Far more likely is Spitzer loses it somehow.

Who do you think Weld voted for in 2004?

Out of curiosity, if Weld won, would there be any other instance in history where a person has been governor of more than one state in his political career?

I think NixonNow mentioned Sam Houston (TN and TX).

Ah, okay, so it wouldn't be a ground-breaking achievement then. :)

bush.

i saw him interviewed during the campaign.  he didnt have too many flattering things to say about kerry.

im pretty sure he was also at the 04 republican convention.

Under current conditions and barring some major scandal, he'll get about 40%, tops.

I think Obama was more or less unbeatable, considering that he was running in a heavily Democratic state and was a strong candidate. He won with something like 70% of the vote. Who could the GOP have fielded against him?

Let's pretend there was some House seat. The first poll from it said that the incumbent had a 60-20 lead over his likely challenger. Wouldn't most agree the incumbent would be a shoo-in? Or that polls could change and the challenger could still somehow close that 40 point gap.

And if I remember correct, Spitzer-Weld poll numbers now are about equal to what the Bush-Kerry poll numbers were in Utah.

Do the math.

only one problem with that analysis.....this isnt a house seat.

Yet it's not much different.

You know how all the Republicans here would be acting if Santorum had a 40 point lead on his likely opponent and Democrats argued the guy still had a chance.

The problem with your analysis, BRTD, is that the House has an incumbency rate upwards of 90%.

Governorships and Senate seats change much, much more often than House seats, which almost never flip unless  the incumbent is very unpopular or the challenger gets an astounding amount of media coverage (hard to get in a House race).

Nobody would have gotten a lesser percentage of the vote than Alan Keyes, nobody.

Even a slightly respectable candidate would have been able to get above 30% of the vote.

Santorum is a Senator. Some years a lot of those get tossed, like 1980, 1986, 1994, 2000.

True analysis.