Talk Elections

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"FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS!"

The crowd chanted wildly as Barack Obama left the stage of his Boston healthcare rally. As he went to his backstage room, the cries continued to ring in the President's ears. Four More Years. Did the people truly want a historical, almost unprecedented third term from him? The possibility had been intensely debated amongst his inner circle for months now- Joe was urging him to do it, his staffers and allies were urging him. And deep inside, he was starting to think about it too. He could make sure his legacy is well-protected and expand it, he could become a President worthy of his popularity. And in 2016, there were many pickup opportunities in the Senate races, leaving some hope for a Democratic Congress with which the President could work...

When he entered the backstage room, Joe immediately fell on him, patting his back. "So, four more years, what do ya say?"

"I'd support it." Former Governor Deval Patrick, who took part in the rally, shrugged. "You can save us from the current Democratic field, and from that hellish Republican field. God, Donald Trump? What's next, Alex Jones?"

"The Clintons won't like it," Obama joked, "and so wouldn't my wife."

Michelle, who was silent until that moment, raised her head to look at her husband. "Sure, I know I wouldn't like it, politics are disgusting. But maybe... just maybe... this is what the country needs?"

The President paused, staring at his wife in shock. "Are you serious?"

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April 7th, 2015

Four More Years? Obama Friends, Allies Encouraging Third White House Run

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - Just as Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton readies herself to finally announce a second Presidential run, speculations swirl once again of a potential Obama run.

According to sources inside the Obama inner circle, various allies and friends like Vice President Joe Biden, Former Governor Deval Patrick and others, are heavily encouraging the President to run for another term. If he decides to run, Obama would be the first President since Bill Clinton to run for a third term, and if successful, the first since Franklin Roosevelt to actually win one.

When pressed for comment, Clinton spokesperson Brian Fallon said that "Secretary Clinton is and always has been focused on improving the lives of as many Americans as possible." White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said that "the President is consulting with his family", further fueling the speculations.

To be continued...

So no 22nd Amendment?

Yep.

Im intrigued by this;. I so wish Obama could have had a third term.

So does Bill run for and lose a third term to Bush 43? I am intrigued.

Yeah, which changes the 2000 and 2004 Democratic nominees but not the 2008 one. More on this later.

April 21st, 2015

Report: Clinton to "postpone" Presidential announcement, reevaluate in light of new Obama speculations

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NEW YORK CITY - Despite reports that Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was going to announce her presidential bid soon, it appears like it might not be the case. According to sources inside the Clintons' inner circle, recent rumours about another potential Obama White House bid have "infuriated" the former First Lady and forced her to "postpone" her Presidential campaign's announcement.

In a recent interview, OMB Director and Obama ally Shaun Donovan stated that the President is "seriously contemplating" a run, prompted by a "potentially poor Democratic field that could hand the White House to a disastrous, extreme Republican candidate". Combined with cryptic statements by Press Secretary Josh Earnest and with the President himself smiling and telling "we'll see" to a crowd chanting for "Four More years" in a recent New York City rally, the signs seem to be pointing at a serious possibility of the President running for a third term.

Meanwhile, Clintonworld is very disturbed by such a possibility. The former Secretary has long been considered the frontrunner for the 2016 Democratic Nomination, with many insiders considering it "her turn", but an Obama bid could shake up the field like an earthquake. The President's change in position, after strongly denying interest in a third term, reportedly cause anger and frustration in Clinton's inside circle, with strategist Robby Mook even saying that "the President has had his two terms" in a recent interview.

In light of these recent speculations, a blitz of polling has been conducted to taste the waters for a third Obama bid:

Would you like President Obama to run for a third term? (Likely Democratic Primary voters)
Yes- 55%
No- 27%
Unsure- 18%

Would you like President Obama to run for a third term? (General Electorate)
Yes- 45%
No- 36%
Unsure- 19%

Democratic National Primary (w/ Barack Obama)-
Barack Obama- 44%
Hillary Clinton- 37%
Bernie Sanders- 7%
Martin O'Malley- 3%
Jim Webb- 2%
Lincoln Chafee- 1%
Undecided- 6%

Democratic National Primary (w/o Barack Obama)-
Hillary Clinton- 54%
Joe Biden- 20%
Bernie Sanders- 9%
Martin O'Malley- 4%
Jim Webb- 2%
Lincoln Chafee- 1%
Undecided- 10%

In other news, Governors Jeb Bush and Scott Walker continue to run neck-and-neck in Republican Primary polls, with Senators Cruz and Paul not far behind...

#IBackBarry

Excellent stuff! Well written.

Could you do a full list of the Presidents since FDR?

Thanks! Next update will be posted soon :)


I would, but it's the same one as in OTL, just that Clinton is the Democratic nominee in 2000 and Gore in 2004. It makes for some interesting changes in the Democratic primaries in both 2004 and 2008, though, which will be expanded upon later.

April 30th, 2015

Independent Senator Bernie Sanders officially announces run for President as Democrat

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - Bernard 'Bernie' Sanders, former Burlington Mayor and current U.S. Senator from the State of Vermont, officially announced his bid for the Democratic nomination today with little fanfare. The 74 years-old Independent Progressive, who caucuses with the Democrats, is a Jew and a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist, making him a hardline leftist challenger to both President Obama, if he decides to run for a third term, and Secretary Clinton.

The Vermont Senator's campaign is considered a longshot with not much of a chance to become a serious contender, but many of his popular progressive positions, such as support for universal healthcare and fierce oppositiont to the influence of big money in politics, could resound with the liberal Democratic base and force both Obama and Clinton to address those issues or even move to the left.

Combined with the expected entrances of former Governors Lincoln Chafee and Martin O'Malley, Sanders' announcement adds yet another challenger to whomever decides to run out of Obama and Clinton. If both the former First Lady and the current President decide to run, as sources in both Clintonworld and Obamaworld indicated could very well happen, this could serve as an opening for Sanders, or another candidate, to emerge as a third choice.

Sanders would probably win Oklahoma and West Virginia.

May 30th, 2015

As Speculations about Clinton campaign announcement swirl, Fmr. Gov. Martin O'Malley announces White House bid

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BALTIMORE - Standing on a hill overlooking the City where he once served as Mayor, Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley officially announced his Presidential campaign today. He emphazied on his experience as a two-term Governor and Mayor, and tried to position himself as a young, energetic liberal. In a perceived jab at Democratic frontrunners, Secretary Clinton and President Obama, and Republican frontrunner Jeb Bush, the Former Governor said that he brings "new leadership that will fight money in politics and limit the power of the big banks". O'Malley's campaign is considered a longshot, polling in the low single digits both against Clinton and Obama, and against Clinton and Biden.

Though O'Malley is trying to break the Obama-Clinton hegemony in the Democratic primary, he's not the only one- Independent Senator Bernie Sanders has been steadily rising in the polls, his progressive views resounding with the party's base, and two other candidates, Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb are expected to announce their own longshot bids soon. But that is not all- with Clinton and Obama splitting the party's establishment in what looks like a vicious shadow primary, other potential candidates seem to be seeing an opening- when asked whether he'll run for President, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said "I'm not running right now", which prompted speculations that he'll try to exploit the Clinton-Obama split and emerge as a compromise choice.

Meanwhile, sources inside the Clinton inner circle report that the former First Lady will "probably" officially announce her Presidential campaign soon. The news comes as a surprise to many who thought that Clinton would wait to see if President Obama will decide to run for a third term, but Clinton insiders say that "she had already made her mind a long time ago", and speculate that an announcement now could pressure the President to decline running for a third term.

Polling shows a neck-and-neck race between Obama and Clinton, with some Democrats enthusiastic about the President running for four more years, and others thinking that "it's her turn", while the support for a third Obama term seems to be eroding among the general electorate:

Would you like President Obama to run for a third term? (Likely Democratic Primary voters)
Yes- 56%
No- 37%
Unsure- 8%

Would you like President Obama to run for a third term? (General Electorate)
Yes- 42%
No- 46%
Unsure- 12%

Democratic National Primary (w/ Barack Obama)-
Barack Obama- 40%
Hillary Clinton- 38%
Bernie Sanders- 10%
Martin O'Malley- 4%
Jim Webb- 1%
Lincoln Chafee- 1%
Undecided- 6%

Democratic National Primary (w/o Barack Obama)-
Hillary Clinton- 51%
Joe Biden- 18%
Bernie Sanders- 13%
Martin O'Malley- 5%
Lincoln Chafee- 2%
Jim Webb- 2%
Undecided- 9%

June 3rd, 2015

Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee announces longshot Presidential campaign

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ARLINGTON - Before a half-empty auditorium in the George Mason University School for Policy, Government and International Affairs, the former Mayor of Warwick, United States Senator and one-term Rhode Island Governor, announced his bid for the Democratic nomination. Noteably, his announcement focused on an endorsement for embracing the metric system, and his vote against the Iraq War which, he claimed, "showed courage" as a Republican Senator.

Chafee joins a field of two candidates who already announced their run - Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Martin O'Malley - and two other candidates who are considered certain to announce soon, namely former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Senator Jim Webb. Meanwhile, President Obama is still deliberating a bid for a third term.Sources inside the Clinton inner circle are increasingly indicating that the former First Lady is certain to make an announcement in the coming days.

Meanwhile, in the swelling field of the Republican Primary, polling indicates Jeb Bush and Scott Walker still running neck-and-neck, with Marco Rubio very close behind, but all three seem to be declining in the polls...

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June 7th, 2015

BREAKING: Hillary Clinton formally announces Presidential bid in a Youtube video

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NEW YORK CITY - In a well-recieved video uploaded to Youtube, former First Lady, U.S. Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton officially announced that she is running "running for President". Emphasizing on being the champion of "everyday Americans", Clinton clearly tried to appeal to women, minorities, youths, the lgbtq community and working class Americans, with the video mainly including them.

Noteably, these are the demographics for which she will have to compete against President Obama if he decided to run for a third term. Sources inside the Clinton campaign confirmed it, with one claiming that the former Secretary tried to "cage the President" with her announcement, intimidating him with the prospects of a competitive primary and a hard-fought campaign and hoping it would dishearten an attempt to gain a third term. If the President doesn't run, Clinton is considered an almost certain favourite to win the nomination.

When asked about the claims, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said, with an amused smile, that he'd "really hope the Secretary isn't running because she wants to 'cage' someone, but because she wants to improve the lives of Americans." At press time, Clinton spokesperson Brian Fallon did not respond to a request for comment.

Looks like the establishment vote is going to be severely split during this primary. That could be very good news for Bernie, if he plays his cards right.

June 20th, 2015

Biden shuts down Presidential talk, supports a third Obama campaign

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NEW YORK CITY - Interviewed by the Late Show's Stephen Colbert, Vice President Joe Biden denied interest in a 2016 Presidential bid, saying that he is "absolutely not running for President this year." When asked of a potential bid for a third term by his boss, Biden said that he "would gladly support my friend in any way [he] can." He also actively encouraged such a campaign, stating that "whenever the President asks me if he should do it, I have only one thing to say to him: Just do it!". The statement drew loud cheers from the audience, as well as the famous chant of "Four More Yesrs!", which Vice President Biden encouraged and joyfully joined.

Pundits are speculating that the Vice President's announcement could be a way to subtly pressure President Obama to throw his hat into the ring. Biden, no great fan of Hillary Clinton, is a strong supporter of an Obama third term, calling it "what America needs" and "a dream come true" in multiple occassions. Reportedly, he looked into challenging her in the primary in the even his boss didn't, but a number of factors made him lean against it, including his son's tragic death and the low numbers for him in head-to-head polls against the former Secretary, which promised a steep hill to climb and prompted him to put all his weight into convincing the President to run.

According to Obama insiders, the President continues to weight his options, consulting with friends and family, especially his wife, First Lady Michelle Obama. He is said to be reluctant to run, given the unprededent nature of a third term and the tough campaign ahead, but also uncomfortable with the idea of Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee. One source said that "he [Obama] doesn't believe she can win a general election". With Biden closing the shutter on a 2016 campaign, several Obama allies have been floating the idea of a run by Fmr. Massachussetts Governor Deval Patrick, a close ally of the President.

Meanwhile, a new batch of polls has been released about the Democratic race, showing a surge for Secretary Clinton following her campaign announcement and Obama's reluctance to run, and show Senator Sanders and Fmr. Governor Patrick as her strongest challengers in the event Obama doesn't run:

Would you like President Obama to run for a third term? (Likely Democratic Primary voters)
Yes- 53%
No- 41%
Unsure- 7%

Would you like President Obama to run for a third term? (General Electorate)
Yes- 40%
No- 49%
Unsure- 11%

Democratic National Primary (w/ Barack Obama)-
Barack Obama- 37%
Hillary Clinton- 41%
Bernie Sanders- 13%
Martin O'Malley- 2%
Lincoln Chafee- 1%
Jim Webb- 1%
Undecided- 5%

Democratic National Primary (w/o Barack Obama)-
Hillary Clinton- 54%
Bernie Sanders- 16%
Deval Patrick- 11%
Andrew Cuomo- 6%
Martin O'Malley- 3%
Jim Webb- 1%
Lincoln Chafee- 1%
Undecided- 8%

Meanwhile, in the Republican primary, the field is chaotic, with Bush, Walker and Rubio barely clinging to double digits, Carson, Huckabee and Paul right behind them. The entrance of billionaire Donald Trump threatens to bring even more turmoil, with his polling starting comparably strong...

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Would be glad to hear some thoughts and comments :D What do you think of the format so far? Who would you support in this field?

Hard to say whether Hillary would drop out in such a scenrio or fight with Obama.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

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"No, I will not be running for President this cycle. It's absolutely not going to happen, it's not in my plans."

Barack Obama was staring at the TV screen, his expression serious. Deval Patrick, his friend and ally, was on CNN, firmly rejecting any possibility that he will run for President in the 2016 election. Well, the President thought grimly, there goes my last card.

In his reluctance to run for a third term and break all precedents, Obama tried to get someone who he truly believes will carry his legacy to run in his stead- Joe was the likeliest one. But he rejected it, and and implored the President to run. Then he tried Deval, but his announcement on CNN made it clear that it wasn't going to happen. Sure, he could just let Hillary or Andrew take the mantle, but could they truly win a general election and guard his legacy a as efficiently as he would've liked them to? He doubted it.

Now, it seemed, there was only one path left. A tough path that neither he nor Michelle thought they'd have to go through again. But there they were, standing in the beginning of this path for the third time.

Barack Obama picked up his telephone and spoke to the secretary. "Call David. I'm going to need his help again."

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July 2nd, 2015

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Nice tweets.

July 3rd, 2015

Obama, Webb announce Presidential campaigns in the same day

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - Incumbent President Barack Obama and Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb both officially announced their respective bids for the Democratic nomination for President yesterday, with the President's announcement, of course, gaining much more attention and press.

Webb, a former Senator and Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagen is a moderate, southern Democrat and is considered a "blue dog"- a coalition of moderate Democrats who tend to have a conservative lean in either social or economic issues. Webb himself is considered more of a socially conservative politician, and is expected to try and rally the old southern Democratic base and the so-called Reagan Demcorats. However, he is not expected to gain much traction.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama's entry is much more significant. He is expected to start the campaign as the frontrunner, along with former Secretary Clinton, and is considered likely to prevail in such a matchup, especially after the recent allegations against her of an irresponsible use of a private email server in her time as Secretary of State. In fact, the President's entry into the Democratic primary is more than just consequential- it is historical. Obama is the first President since Bill Clinton to run for a third term, and we will have to wait for November 8th, 2016 tp see if he can succeed and become the first one since FDR to do so. Many conservative activists, and even progressives, claim that such an act is problematic and undemocratic, citing the precedent set by George Washington. Others, meanwhile, acclaim the decision and see President Obama as the best leader for America right now. It is clearly a polarizing issue, as many issues have recently become.

A bunch of new polls released conducted since the President tweeted his decision could serve to tell us the public's opinion on his decision:

Do you support President Obama's decision to run for a third term? (Likely Democratic Primary voters)
Yes- 57%
No- 32%
Unsure- 12%

Do you support President Obama's decision to run for a third term? (General Electorate)
Yes- 45%
No- 39%
Unsure- 16%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 41%
Hillary Clinton- 37%
Bernie Sanders- 12%
Martin O'Malley- 2%
Jim Webb- 2%
Lincoln Chafee- 0%
Undecided- 6%

Democratic Primary (Iowa)-
Barack Obama- 38%
Hillary Clinton- 32%
Bernie Sanders- 16%
Jim Webb- 5%
Martin O'Malley- 2%
Lincoln Chafee- 0%
Undecided- 7%

Democratic Primary (New Hampshire)-
Barack Obama- 35%
Hillary Clinton- 33%
Bernie Sanders- 21%
Lincoln Chafee- 3%
Martin O'Malley- 2%
Jim Webb- 1%
Undecided- 5%

We can see that Obama, perhaps thanks to a combination of Clinton's email revelations and a polling bump from his announcement, starts with a lead against the former First Lady in both the national popular vote and the two earliest states to vote. Surprisingly, we can see Progressive Senator Bernie Sanders, who has been recently gaining traction with the Democratic base and gathered a surprisingly strong internet following, performing especially well in the early states, especially New Hampshire, which neighbours his own Vermont. It remains to be seen if he can actually threaten the Obama-Clinton duopoly, but if any of the candidates can do it, he is considered the likeliest.

Wouldn't Bush only have 274 EVs?

273, since there's the abstaining D.C. elector. Edited, thanks for noticing!

Good updates, keep it up! :)

July 22nd, 2015

Andrew Cuomo announces surprising, longshot Presidential bid

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NEW YORK CITY - In an announcement that surprised many pundits and observers, who expected him to shy away from the long odds and run in 2020 or 2024, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced his run for the Democratic party's nomination for President. He has made his experience and the reforms he passed as Governor the centerpiece of his announcement, claiming that he is the "only candidate who has a proven progressive, liberal record on the issues".

According to Cuomo insiders, the Governor feels like he has a shot at an upset, and decided that running in four or eight years will be even harder. Cuomo is expected to try and use the split in the party's establishment between Clinton and Obama, as well as the Sanders campaign which is quickly gaining traction, and present himself as a compromise choice that progressives, liberals and moderates can all get behind. However, some big hurdles for him to overcome could be the stench of corruptions some claim is coming from his administration, as well as many progressive Democrats strongly disliking him.

Clinton, Obama, Sanders and the other declared candidates continue to convass the early states- it looks like none of the three is giving up on neither Iowa nor New Hampshire, strongly focusing on both states, while amongst the longshot candidates, Martin O'Malley and Jim Webb are focusing on Iowa and Lincoln Chafee on New Hampshire. Cuomo, too is expected to heavily focus on the Granite State.

The Republican Primaries are boiling, meanwhile, as Business Mogul Donald Trump has rocketed in the polls, passing frontrunners Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. His populist right win message seems to be resounding with the fired-up Republican base, worrying the party's establishment which is hoping that Bush is able to recover...

inb4 a certain R-TX avatar who shall not be named drops in and claims credit for Coumo announcing his run for president in this timeline. :P

September 1st, 2015

State of the Race, 2016: Part 1

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Fall is here, and the 2016 Presidential campaign is officially underway. With the first Democratic Debate approaching in a bit more than a month, the field of candidates in the world's oldest political party has solidified to seven, with two clear frontrunners. Let's look at the State of the Race and try to see who has the best chance for victory.

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President Obama campaigning in Manchester, New Hampshire

Barack Obama

Previous jobs: Illinois State Senator (1997-2004), U.S. Senator from Illinois (2005-2008), 44th President of the United States (2009-present)
Campaign so far: The incumbent President was thought unlikely to run until a few months ago, when rumours begun to swirl about his intentions. The first President since Bill Clinton to run for a third term, Obama has a tough primary ahead of him, with former Secretary Hillary Clinton, a very popular and formidable Democrat, challenging him, among others. The President's campaign has been focusing heavily on victories in early states- Iowa and New Hampshire most of all. While South Carolina is considered very likely to be won by him, Obama's campaign is hoping that victories in these two states can give him an unstopable momentum and finish the primaries early.
What it will take to win the primary: Not much. The President just needs to do well in the debates, which he already showed that he could, and keep up his campaigning. The strong poll numbers will come naturally if he does, and victory as well.
Endorsements- Barack Obama, as the incumbent President, already has the support of many politicians. He was swiftly endorsed by some of his allies and homestate politicians, indluding Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE), Former Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA), Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D-IL), Senate Candidate Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), Former Senator Carol Moseley Braun (D-IL), Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), Labour Secretary Tom Perez (D-MD), all of the Illinois Democratic Congressial Delegation and most of the House Black Caucus. But with the contested primary, many others are reluctant to endorse. Noteably, the party establishment isn't hurrying to rally behind the President, with some rumours saying that DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz is supportive of Hillary Clinton and furious that Obama has decided to run instead of gibing Clinton 'her turn'. Other noteable endorsements include Agriculture Secretary and Former Governor Tom Vilack (D-IA), HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX), Representative Joaquín Castro (D-TX) and Former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT).

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Hillary Clinton giving a speech in Des Moines, Iowa

Hillary Clinton

Previous jobs: First Lady of Arkansas (1983-1992), First Lady of the United States (1993-2001), U.S. Senator from New York (2001-2009), Secretary of State (2009-2013)
Campaign so far: Hillary Clinton raised many brows when she decided to run despite the looming threat of a primary against an incumbent President. However, at the age of 68, 2016 is considered Clinton's last likely chance to win the Presidency, and many of her supporters claim that it's her turn at the job. She's a strong candidate and has been campaigning well, garnering a loyal following that wants to see her as the first female President, but with a damaging email controversy and a split establishment vote, Clinton's path is not easy. The former First Lady has been focusing heavily in Iowa, New Hampshire and, noteably, Nevada.
What it will take to win the primary: Clinton needs to effectively shake off her scandals, defeat Obama in the debates and win at least one of the early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, to gain the frontrunner status that she so craves.
Endorsements: While most politicians are reluctant to endorse a challenger to the sitting President, Clinton has been racking a surprisingly strong amount of endorsements. Rumours are claiming that the DNC Chairwoman, Representative Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D-FL), supports the former Secretary, and she has already recieved a few noteable endorsements from important officeholders. Of course, her husband, Former President Bill Clinton (D-AR), has swiftly endorsed her, but she also has the support of Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY), Governor Peter Shumlin (D-VT), Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Governor Maggie Hassan (D-NH), who is considered her currently most valuable endorsement.

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Sanders rallies crowd in a NH rally

Bernie Sanders

Previous jobs: Mayor of Burlington (1981-1989), U.S. Representative from Vermont (1991-2007), U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007-present)
Campaign so far: Sanders, a 75 years-old Jew who is a registered independent and a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist is running a longshot campaign, but recently, his populist, progressive rhetoric has started resounding with the Democratic base, especially, according to the polls, with young and white voters. He's considered the likeliest to break the Obama-Clinton duopoly and his fundraising numbers, completely funded by small donors, donations averaging at 27$, are steadily ticking up. He has been heavily focusing on his neighbouring state, New Hampshire, but also frequenting Iowa.
What it will take to win the primary: If Sanders wants to win, he needs neither Clinton nor Obama to collapse, and probably Cuomo to gain steam, effectively splitting the establishment vote. This could allow him to use his loyal, core following to win pluralities and become the frontrunner. In order to win, Sanders must do well in Iowa and Nevada, and most importantly, win New Hampshire.
Endorsements: Sanders' insurgent populist campaign hasn't been gaining many endorsements, with the Democratic establishment very disdainful of him, but he did manage to gain the support of a homestate politician, Representative Peter Welch (D-VT) of a few politicians after his own mold, progressive populists- former Governor John Kitzhaber (D-OR), Representative Keith Ellison (D-MN), Representative Raúl Grijalva (D-NM) and a controversial figure, Representative Alan Grayson (D-FL).

Continued in the next post...

DNC faces a tough choice. Rig the primaries for Obama or Hillary?

October 14th, 2015

FIRST DEMOCRATIC DEBATE: Clinton, Obama, Sanders exchange fire, Webb tries to set himself apart

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LAS VEGAS - Last night, the first Democratic Debate of the season, after two official Republican ones already occured, drew a lot of interest due to the presence of President Obama, and as a result, a record number of 25 million voters on average. Let's look at a few key moments:

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Bernie Sanders: "Let me say something that may not be great politics, but the secretary is right. The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails! Enough of the emails, let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America!"
Hillary Clinton: "Thank you, Bernie!"

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Andrew Cuomo: "Let's remember, folks, under President Obama, the Democratic party faced complete collapse in the midterms, twice. The President's eight years were decent, but it's time for someone who can work with congress and pass progressive reforms, as I proved I could in the Empire State."
Barack Obama: "Uh, look, I respect Governor Cuomo, but I can't seem to remember a group of Democrats caucusing with the Republicans and giving them a majority under my leadership. Under Andrew Cuomo, a group of State Senators who called themselves Independent Democrats joined the Republicans in the Senate and gave them a majority, thus actually preventing the passage of many reforms in the state. Let's be real here, Governor."

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Barack Obama: Secretary Clinton is saying that it's her turn, that it's time for someone new. But she has been in this for years, and is part of, well, basically, a political dynasty. She's a voice from the past, not a young future leader. So why should Democratic voters choose her, if that's the argument?
Hillary Clinton: "Well, Mr. President, I'm not saying I'm some young, twenty-years-old woman, but I think it's generally unhealthy to have the same President for more than eight years. Is it so bad to wish for a change in leadership and in mindset, try something else, try passing important reforms such as healthcare and immigration reforms under someone new?"
Jim Webb: Let me just say this, Anderson. These two, the President and his former Secretary, are just two creatures of Washington, D.C. trying to fight each other for the power they so crave. If the American people want to keep electing these kinds of people, very well, but I think it's time for someone who came to politics to work for the working class and solve problems. I am this man.

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Lincoln Chafee: I think it's time we embrace someone who brings fresh ideas, and doesn't recycle the same old ideas. Martin recycles these ideas, President Obama recycles these ideas, even Bernie and Jim recycle these ideas. And let's not even start about Secretary Clinton, who voted for the disastrous Iraq War. I have fresh ideas that we didn't try, real solutions to real problems.
Martin O'Malley: Well, I think Lincoln is being a bit hypocritical here. He's the son of a Washington politician, he's been a Washington politician for ages. His idea isn't fresh. Mine are- I'm the only candidate on this stage who is truly a Washington outsider, being a former Governor, and who can bring fresh ideas and the right experience to implement them.

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Jim Webb: "Well, the question really is how are we going to solve energy problems here and in the global environment if you really want to address climate change? And really, we are not going to solve climate change simply with the laws here. It’s a global problem and I have been very strong on doing that. So let’s solve this problem in an international way, and then we really will have a way to address climate change."
Bernie Sanders: "Well, I will tell you this- this is a moral issue. The scientists are telling us that we need to move extremely boldly. And let me also tell you that nothing is gonna happen unless we are prepared to deal with campaign finance reform, because the fossil fuel industry is funding the Republican Party, which denies the reality of climate change and certainly is not prepared to go forward aggressively. This is a moral issue. We have got to be extremely aggressive in working with China, India, Russia. The planet — the future of the planet is at stake."

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This debate proved one thing- Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are the frontrunners. Jim Webb, and to a lesser extent, Lincoln Chafee, did manage to put in their voice a few times and do better expected, but Martin O'Malley and Andrew Cuomo flopped last night. We've seen all candidates exchanging barbs, with the most interactions being between the three frontrunners.
The biggest stories of the night, though, are Sanders and Webb, the two outsider candidates- according to post-debate polls and statistics, they are the ones who increased their name recognition the most. This is especially helpful for Sanders, who has been steadily rising in the polls, and now seems like an actual threat to Obama and Clinton.
On the social media front, Senators Sanders and Webb increased their Tweeter and Facebook followers by the greatest volume from all candidates, though Clinton and Obama managed to gain the most traction in the night.

Let's look at the post-debate polls, conducted after it:

Who do you think won the first Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 26%
Bernie Sanders- 24%
Hillary Clinton- 23%
Jim Webb- 11%
Lincoln Chafee- 5%
Andrew Cuomo- 3%
Martin O'Malley- 1%
Unsure- 7%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 34% () (-1)
Hillary Clinton- 27% () (-1)
Bernie Sanders- 18% () (+2)
Andrew Cuomo- 7% () (-2)
Jim Webb- 5% () (+1)
Martin O'Malley- 2% () (-1)
Lincoln Chafee- 2% () (+1)
Undecided- 5% () (+1)

Democratic Primary (Iowa)-
Barack Obama- 31% () (-1)
Hillary Clinton- 27% () (+-0)
Bernie Sanders- 20% () (+2)
Jim Webb- 11% () (+3)
Andrew Cuomo- 4% () (-3)
Martin O'Malley- 2% () (-1)
Lincoln Chafee- 0% () (+-0)
Undecided- 5% () (-1)

Democratic Primary (New Hampshire)-
Barack Obama- 26% () (-2)
Hillary Clinton- 26% () (+-0)
Bernie Sanders- 25% () (+2)
Andrew Cuomo- 11% () (-3)
Lincoln Chafee- 6% () (+2)
Martin O'Malley- 0% () (-1)
Jim Webb- 0% ()(+-0)
Undecided- 6% () (+2)

---

NOTE: I know the podium order in the pictures and in the CNN thing, and even in the polls, isn't always the same. Try to ignore it, I'll likely be using the same picture until someone drops out because I'm too lazy to edit too much :P Also, I want to thank Castro whose wonderful TL gave me the idea of the podium thing, and who executed it much better, too.
Thanks for reading! I'd like to hear what you think about the format :)

Loving this TL!

Truth. I can see Obama v. Clinton 2.0 turning some potential Clinton or Obama voters to Sanders. Obama's proclamations about Hillary are honestly a tad bit hypocritical as he runs to be POTUS for TWELVE years.

Wonderful TL.

October 26th, 2015

Secretary of State John Kerry endorses Barack Obama

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Obama and Kerry hold campaign rally in New Hampshire

NASHUA - After remaining neutral for the early parts of the Democratic Primaries, Secretary of State, former Senator and former Democratic nominee for President in 2004 John Kerry announced his endorsement for his current boss, President Barack Obama. In a New Hampshire rally, Kerry called Obama "a true progressive leader in the home front, and in the global front", and "the leader America needs right now".

Kerry has had a rich experience in politics, and is still considered a popular figure in the Democratic party- his tenure as Secretary of State was seen very positively by doves and liberals, but negatively by hawkes and conservatives. Noteably, he failed to negotiate an agreement between the notoriously stubborn Israelis and Palestinians, but he did lead the efforts to reach the Iran Deal and under him, American foreign policy went through a relatively peaceful time.

The endorsement caused many to speculate that it meant another term for Kerry as Secretary of State, but the former Senator denied to rumour in an MSNBC interview. When asked about Barack Obama's main opponent, his predeccedor Hillary Clinton, Kerry called her "a find public servant, but not the leader to bring real change and reform".

November 10th, 2015

Sanders calls for single-payer healthcare, chastises opponents

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Senator Sanders in one of his signature big rallies

MANCHESTER - Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), one of the three major contenders for the Democratic nomination in 2016, has long believed in a single-payer universal healthcare system. Yesterday, he made it a centerpiece of his campaign, announcing that "healthcare is a right" and that "no American should remain uninsured".

In the same rally, Sanders critisized Obamacare as "not going far enough" and asserted that it needs to be changed into a single-payer system. He also said that it's "a shame President Obama and Secretary Clinton aren't endorsing this system", which he claimed was the healthcare system in most western countries.

In an interview on Fox News, Democratic candidate Jim Webb, who has been recently gaining some traction with his populist rhetoric, said that he "doesn't believe there's any way congress would pay for single-payer healthcare", and avoided the question of his personal support for the system. Webb has, in the past, critisized Obamacare, saying that it should've been on a smaller scope. Candidate Lincoln Chafee, meanwhile, said that he was always an advocate for healthcare reform and that he supports universal coverage, but he's "unsure if single-payer is the way to go".

The other Democratic contenders didn't comment on this specific issue yet, but with Sanders' new crusade, the question is expected to come up in the next debate in three days. According to recently conducted polls, the majority of Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters support a single payer system- when asked, 67% said they support it, 18% oppose and 15% are unsure.

November 15th, 2015

Second Democratic Debate focuses on terrorism, healthcare

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DES MOINES - As the Democratic primary starts to get into gear, the second debate yesterday night was expected to focus heavily on domestic affairs, the main contentious issue between the Democratic candidate. However, one day prior, a series of terror attacks by ISIS struck Paris and France- three suicide bombings in the Stade de France, another suicide bombing and three shootings at four different restaurants and finally, a mass shooting and hostage situation at the Bataclan theatre, where the heavy metal band Eagles of Death Metal was playing. Two attackers in the theatre detonated their suicide vest, while the third was hit by police fire, and the vest was detonated as he fell. The death toll in the theatre alone was 89, and 130 overall.

At first, the Democratic debate was expected to be canceled, but CBS announced that it would go forth, just with a heavier focus on terrorism and foreign policy, and a minute of silence at the start. There were a few key moments in the debate, which could explain how each of the seven candidates did:

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Bernie Sanders: "This unfourtunate event yesterday is truly a devastating one. My prayers are with the families of the victims. And I vow to you that as President, I will fight terorrism. However, the way to do it is not more wars that just disrupt stability, like the Iraq War. We need more stability in the region if we hope to defeat terrorism, and this war did the exact opposite. I don't think that the Democratic nominee should be a person who voted for this war."
Lincoln Chafee: "I agree with the Senator on this. I always opposed the Iraq War, and I was one of the only Senators who voted against this. Secretary Clinton, here, voted for the war, despite being a Democrat at the time. This shows use what we need to know about her judgement."
Martin O'Malley: "And if I might add, I believe that Secretary Clinton's current interventionist stance in Syria will also serve to further destrabilize the region. We should continue the President's strategy of helping the Iraqi regime and the Kurdish fighters in their war against ISIS with weapons, air bombings and counsel."
Hillary Clinton: "Can I finally reply? Thank you. Well, you see, my vote against the Iraq was, at the time, was because I was willing to listen and make a sound judgement according to what I am told, instead of resorting to votes just for the sake of populism. The Bush administration mislead us, and with the information given to us, we voted for Iraq. If I knew the truth we know today, I wouldn't make this choice. And these three men, they claim to know foreign policy better than me, but you see, I was Secretary of State, I helped negotiate tough deals and prevent wars, I was there when Osama Bin Laden was killed. I have a record that would, I think, allow me to deal with this changing world better than any other candidate on this stage."


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Bernie Sanders: "It's time for America to embrace single-payer, universal healthcare. This is a system that most European countries have, Canada and Australia and Israel have it. Healthcare is a fundamental right, and it's time to fix Obamacare into a single-payer system for everyone to recieve it in America!"
Hillary Clinton: "Well, I agree with Senator Sanders that the Affordable Care Act needs to be fixed. It's not perfect, not by any measure, but still much better than any plan the Republican party might come up with. We need to reduce premium and make sure everyone can have their health covered, but I'm not sure a single-payer system is the right path. We're a big, populated country, and we'd be hard-pressed to actually fund it."
Barack Obama: "Everyone keeps saying Obamacare this, Obamacare this, but we must remember- this was a compromise bill. Because of various Democratic Senators whose votes we needed, we had to remove the public option, which is something that I still believe we need. If I will be President, hopefully with a Democratic Senate majority, I vow that we will work as hard as we can to add the public option and finally have a universal healthcare system!"

()
Andrew Cuomo: "I am running because I'm the only candidate here who offeres real change, and has the chops to prove it. In New York, I passed more progressive legislation than any other candidate in the country, while President Obama has been less than successful in working with Congress and Secretary Clinton had been alternating between a foreign policy role with no influence on domestic policy, and between working in her foundation."
Jim Webb: "This is actually pretty funny. Governor Cuomo claims that he's here to bring change, but he's actually bringing the old, recycled ideas that brought us nowhere in the last eight years. He's actually a creature of D.C., even if he doesn't live there. A swamp creature, whose administration in Albany reeks of corruption, with suspicions, probes and even indictments and convictions against members of his administration."
Andrew Cuomo: "What you seem to suggest here, Senator, is insulting and outright slanderous. I have been a fighter for working class Americans while you worked for the Reagan administration that trampled them!"
Jim Webb: "I've been serving my country, Governor, as soldier in the army, in positions like Secretary of the Navy and Senator. You've been serving yourself and your special interest friends."

---

As we can see, this was a pretty contentious debate. While Hillary Clinton managed to rebound and do very well, using her experience and extensive knowledge in a foreign-policy oriented debate, Obama and Sanders had very solid performances as well, especially on the issue of healthcare. The biggest losers tonight were probably Jim Webb and Andrew Cuomo, who bogged down each other in a few nasty attacks. These candiates, a liberal New Democrat and a conservative Old Democrat, are perfect opposites, and it seems to be coming into light as the campaign continues. Here are the polls conducted after the debate:

Who do you think won the first Democratic debate?
Hillary Clinton- 29%
Barack Obama- 27%
Bernie Sanders- 25%
Jim Webb- 4%
Lincoln Chafee- 4%
Andrew Cuomo- 3%
Martin O'Malley- 2%
Unsure- 6%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 32% () (-2)
Hillary Clinton- 29% () (+2)
Bernie Sanders- 19% () (+1)
Andrew Cuomo- 5% () (-2)
Jim Webb- 5% () (+-0)
Lincoln Chafee- 3% () (+1)
Martin O'Malley- 2% () (+-0)
Undecided- 5% () (+-0)

Democratic Primary (Iowa)-
Barack Obama- 30% () (-1)
Hillary Clinton- 28% () (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 20% () (+-0)
Jim Webb- 10% () (-1)
Andrew Cuomo- 4% () (+-0)
Martin O'Malley- 2% () (+-0)
Lincoln Chafee- 0% () (+-0)
Undecided- 6% () (+1)

Democratic Primary (New Hampshire)-
Hillary Clinton- 26% () (+-0)
Barack Obama- 26% () (+-0)
Bernie Sanders- 26% () (+1)
Andrew Cuomo- 10% () (-1)
Lincoln Chafee- 6% () (+-0)
Martin O'Malley- 1% () (+1)
Jim Webb- 0% () (+-0)
Undecided- 5% () (-1)

Go Bernie!

November 21st, 2015

FBI Clinton email probe expanded- whether State officials improperly sent classified material

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Despite Secretary Clinton's attempts to put away the issue, the FBI has expanded its inquries into her use of a private email server, this time to check if anyone in the State Department jeopardized national security secrets.

These new revelations threaten to harm Clinton's presidential campaign. Though President Barack Obama said that he "does not believe Secretary Clinton put our national security in danger", and Senator Bernie Sanders famously said that America is "tired of hearing about the goddamn emails", refusing to comment on them thereafter, some of her other opponents jumped on the opportunity. Former Senator Jim Webb's campaign commented that "Clinton is clearly irresponsible and lacks judgement, Senator Webb never even thought of doing anything of the sort as Secretary of the Navy and will never do it as President". Meanwhile, Republican frontrunner tweeted that "Crooked Hillary should never be allowed to run the country! Can't handle national security secrets!".

If the scandal does hurt her primary campaign, Clinton's loss of support is expected to benefit mainly President Obama, with polls showing him a consistent second choice with most of her supporters. Asked for a comment about that, the Obama campaign refused to respond.

---

Thanks for reading :) I plan this TL to focus more about Obama, and I'm starting to think that going through the primary at this pace will be a bit tiring. Should I increase the pace and cover the debates and events until Iowa more briefly and quickly, or do you like the current pace?

December 19th, 2015

Obama, Sanders perform well in third Democratic Debate, Clinton under fire by Webb

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GOFFSTOWN - In the third Democratic Presidential debate, the same candidates stood on the same podium locations, but one major thing did change- Hillary Clinton's email scandal was back in the forefront. While most Demcoratic contenders, probably not wishing to damage Clinton's chances if she does become the party's nominee, mostly ignored it, Jim Webb came for the kill and viciously attacked her for it, in a way that many voters considered "degrading" according to post-debate polls. These are two of the moments that defined the debate:

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Barack Obama: "Look, I can't know right now if Secretary Clinton mishandled national security secrets while using this private server. And yes, using such a server is not something I'd do. But Hillary Clinton is a true patriot and a woman who truly wanted to serve her nation, and did so capably. I have no doubts that this was just a mistake, and that all she did was with a good intention."
Hillary Clinton: "Thanks, Obama [actually said: Thank you, Mr. President]. And I want to say this, Martha... I already apologized for using this private servet. It was a mistake, and I won't do it again. But this so-called scandal is just a distraction that Republicans are trying to use in their witchhunt against me, to distract the American people from real issues that they can't solve!"
Jim Webb: "Excuse me, Secretary Clinton, but this is ridiculous. You can't just call this issue a distraction- the fact that you did something so foolish, so ridiculous, as using a private server for communications as Secretary of State is very much an important issue. It shows that you lack the necessary judgement and cool head to be President. I was Secretary of the Navy and Undersecretary of Defence, and I never even thought of doing something so foolish."
Hillary Clinton: "I did say Republicans are trying to use this issue as a distraction, and here is an example, because Senator Webb is basically a Republican. Remind me, Senator, in whose administration did you serve, and what did the actions of this administration do to help working class Americans?"
Jim Webb: "I served my nation under my President, and I am proud of it, Secretary!"

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Martin O'Malley: "ISIL videos, ISIL training videos are telling lone wolves the easiest way to buy a combat assault weapon in America is at a gun show. And it's because of the flip-flopping, political approach of Washington that both of my two colleagues on this stage have represented there for the last forty years."
Bernie Sanders: "Please, do not explain to me, coming from a state where democratic governors and republican governors have supported virtually no gun control, do not tell me that I have not shown courage in standing up to the gun people, in voting to ban assault weapons, voting for instant background checks, voting to end the gun show loop hole and now we're in a position to create a consensus in America on gun safety."

The polls after the debate showed that by appearing above the fray, and using their charisma and humour, President Obama and Senator Sanders won the debate, while Clinton's email issues bogged her down:

Who do you think won the third Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 35%
Bernie Sanders- 29%
Hillary Clinton- 18%
Andrew Cuomo- 5%
Jim Webb- 5%
Lincoln Chafee- 2%
Martin O'Malley- 1%
Unsure- 5%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 34% () (+2)
Hillary Clinton- 27% () (-2)
Bernie Sanders- 20% () (+1)
Andrew Cuomo- 6% () (+1)
Jim Webb- 4% () (-1)
Martin O'Malley- 2% () (+-0)
Lincoln Chafee- 2% () (-1)
Undecided- 5% () (+-0)

Democratic Primary (Iowa)-
Barack Obama- 31% () (+1)
Hillary Clinton- 26% () (-2)
Bernie Sanders- 22% () (+1)
Jim Webb- 9% () (-1)
Andrew Cuomo- 4% () (+-0)
Martin O'Malley- 2% () (+-0)
Lincoln Chafee- 0% () (+-0)
Undecided- 6% () (+-0)

Democratic Primary (New Hampshire)-
Bernie Sanders- 28% () (+2)
Barack Obama- 27% () (+1)
Hillary Clinton- 24% () (-2)
Andrew Cuomo- 10% () (+-0)
Lincoln Chafee- 5% () (-1)
Martin O'Malley- 1% () (+-0)
Jim Webb- 0% () (+-0)
Undecided- 5% () (+-0)

January 15th, 2016

Al Gore endorses Obama before final pre-Iowa debate

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CEDAR RAPIDS - Former Vice President and Democratic Presidential nominee in 2004 Al Gore gave, today, an enthusiastic endorsement of the second reelection campaign of incumbent President Barack Obama. He made an enthusiastic speech before a large rally crowd in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, calling Obama "an outstanding President" and decrying Republicans as "obstructionists who prevent real change for the Amaerican people". Gore also made a subtle barb against the President's major opponent in the primaries, Secretary Clinton, saying that "some people think that they deserve the Presidency on the merits of dynastic politics, while others, like the President, are in this to help the American people." The former Vice President finished his speech by calling Democrats to reelect Obama with a Democratic congress, declaring "a unique opportunity for real change".

This endorsement was considered unsurprising and inevitable- Gore is known to have an uneasy relationship with Clinton ever since butting heads with her during her husband's administration, and his views are considered to the right of Sanders', both in substance and in style. In light of this, Obama was the natural choice for him.

Still a popular figure in the Democratic Party, Gore is expected to campaign with Obama extensively throughout the campaign, especially in states like New Hampshire and Florida, where climate change, for which Gore is a major advocate, is an important issue.

With this endorsement, Barack Obama has officially gained, save for three exceptions, the support of every living Democratic President or Vice President and nominees for these positions- 1988 nominee Michael Dukakis endorsed him early, joining him at a November rally in New Hampshire, while former Vice President Walter Mondale endorsed Obama in a Youtube video four days prior to Gore. One of the three exceptions is, of course, former President Bill Clinton, who endorsed his wife. Jimmy Carter decided to remain neutral too, though sources claim that in private conversations he has shown surprising support for Bernie Sanders, and 2000 Vice Presidential nominee Joe Lieberman has not endorsed anyone but expressed his support for Hillary Clinton.

This is good hopefully Clinton drops out after Iowa and New Hampshire and it becomes Obama VS Sanders

SPECIAL: The 2004 Democratic Primaries Part 1

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After nominating former President Bill Clinton as their presidential candidate in the last three cycle, the Democrats in 2004 were ready for a change. Many possible candidates were widely expected to run- from big guns everyone was watching like Senator Hillary Clinton, former Vice President Al Gore and even Bill Clinton himself, to other popular politicians like Tom Daschle, Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, Bob Graham, Joe Lieberman, Bill Bradley and Joe Biden.

Though Howard Dean, a popular, anti-war Vermont Governor who would later gain steam and a big grassroots following, announced an exploratory committee in May 31st of the year 2002, the race is considered to have truly begun in January 1st, 2003, when, in a joint New Year's Eve statement, former President Bill Clinton and Senator Hillary Clinton have both announced that they will not be running for President in 2004. These announcements cleared the field considerably, and caused a lot of jockeying among potential candidates- a day later, both Senators John Edwards (D-NC) and Joe Lieberman (D-CT) announced exploratory committees, and they were followed by Former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, Massachussetts Senator (January 4th) Senator John Kerry (January 6th), Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd (January 11th) and Florida Senator Bob Graham (January 12th).

However, everyone was still waiting for one, major hurdle to potentially get itself out of the way- former Vice President Al Gore was giving mixed signs about his intentions, and many of the more establishment-minded Democrats were anxiously waiting for his announcement. Though most assumed that he would decline to run after saying in a December interview that "the Democrats need a fresh face", he changed his opinion and surprised pundits by declaring a run in January 21st.


Al Gore's announcement in Nashville, Tennessee, surprised many and shook the political world

Gore's decision pulled the rag from beneath the potential candidates, deterring many of them from running. Polls were showing him decisively leading the pack, with his post-Vice Presidential environment advocacy adding grassroots popularity to his already existent establishment support. As a result, John Kerry, Joe Lieberman and Chris Dodd announced, in the following two weeks, that they would not be running for President, rescinding their exploratory committees.

However, some candidates were not deterred. Into a field populated only by Activist Al Sharpton and Al Gore himself jumped Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO) in January 29th, Senator Fmr. Sen. Carol Mosely Braun (D-IL) in February 18th, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) a day after her and finally, Senator Bob Graham in February 28th. Though both had been, de-facto, candidates for quite a while, Howard Dean and John Edwards both announced officially months after the others- Dean in June 23rd and Edwards in September 16th. A day later, September 17th, retired General Wesley Clark also announced his candidacy after many attempts to draft him. And thus, the field was complete, and the race was on.

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The 2004 Democratic candidates

At first, as the primary season heated up, the biggest challenger to Al Gore, according to opinion polls, was Former Minority Leader Gephardt, who still had strength within the establishment and some support among grassroots. He was followed by Senator Bob Graham, whose popularity and location in a swingstate gave him a strong appeal. This is an example of a poll conducted during the month of September, that shows the state of the race:

2004 Democratic Primary (National)
Al Gore- 42%
Dick Gephardt- 17%
Bob Graham- 13%
Howard Dean- 7%
Wesley Clark- 6%
John Edwards- 4%
Dennis Kucinich- 2%
Carol Mosely Brown- 2%
Al Sharpton- 1%
Undecided- 6%

However, soon enough, both of Gore's major opponents begun to slip. Lackluster debate performances and an inability to excite the base and find themselves a niche to run on harmed both candidates, and their polling numbers swiftly decreased. Bob Graham dropped out of the race in October 6th, and though he stayed in the race, Rep. Gephardt was no longer that much of a viable contender. A new power rose to challenge Gore in their stead: Governor Howard Dean (D-VT).

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Howard Dean swiftly gained grassroots popularity, becoming Al Gore's biggest challenger

With powerful, energetic speeches and a strong internet operation, Dean gained a strong, loyal and enthusiastic grassroots following of anti-war progressives. With that, he became Gore's major opponent, and started gaining endorsements from progressive politicians. Wesley Clark also rose in the polls, his experience as General earning him respect and support from some voters.

In January 13th, the non-binding Washington D.C. primary is won by Dean, though Gore didn't contest it. Braun, who placed third after Dean and Sharpton, withdrew from the race following it. With that contest out of the way, Democrats were ready for the early states to start voting. Gore was still strongly leading the polls, but his lead eroded and Howard Dean was breaking into the twenties:

2004 Democratic Primary (National)
Al Gore- 43%
Howard Dean- 21%
Wesley Clark- 14%
John Edwards- 9%
Dick Gephardt- 8%
Dennis Kucinich- 3%
Al Sharpton- 2%
Undecided- 5%

To be continued...

January 17th, 2016

Candidates stick to their guns in final pre-Iowa Democratic debate

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CHARLESTON - In a fiery debate, the last one before the Iowa Caucuses, the seven Democratic candidates clashed on a host of issues, including guns, healthcare and rural America. Let's look at a few highlights:


Andrew Cuomo: "We need access to affordable healthcare for all Americans, yes, but we also need to make sure the whole thing doesn't collapse on itself. If we try dangerous reforms that cost a lot of money we don't have, there is this danger, and I'd hate to see so many people losing their coverage!"
Bernie Sanders: "Um, I'm sorry, but this just isn't true. A single-payer healthcare system is doable, in fact, it's not only doable, but it's more sustainable than our current system, with its rising premiums and hiking costs. Single payer is a system that works in most western countries, and we can definitely do it!"
Hillary Clinton: "I agree with Senator Sanders that we need a universan healthcare system, like I said before, but I do think that it's better attained with a public option. America is not like any other nation, after all. Still, I believe Governor Cuomo needs to realize that the current system is unsustainable and that we can't have uninsured Americans."

---

As is usual, Obama, Clinton and Sanders got the most attention and speaking time, and while none of them had any gaffes, none of them actually won, though Obama did manage to use his natural charisma to appear as a victor of sorts. But the other candidates certainly tried to stand out. Iowa is the last chance for some of them, and they needed to make their case. One such contender, Martin O'Malley, is a noteable loser of the debate- he tried to position himself to the left of Clinton and Obama, but Sanders just did it much better, boxing the former Maryland Governor out. He looked out of his game, flustered, and at some point, when a commercial break started, reportedly stormed out after all the other candidates started talking to each other. Lincoln Chafee was mostly a non-factor, Andrew Cuomo worked hard to appear like a pragmatic liberal but was, once again, attacked by the others, and Jim Webb tried hard to appeal to Iowa voters. We'll see how this goes, as we enter the final stretch before the Iowa Caucuses.

Who do you think won the fourth Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 30%
Hillary Clinton- 28%
Bernie Sanders- 26%
Jim Webb- 6%
Andrew Cuomo- 4%
Martin O'Malley- 1%
Lincoln Chafee- 0%
Unsure- 5%

I predict a Bernie upset in Iowa.

January 30th, 2016

Campaigns sweep over Iowa as Caucuses loom ahead


Governor Martin O'Malley speaking to voters in Marshalltown, Iowa

When he first announced, former Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD) looked like the likeliest candidate, save for Sanders, to break into the Obama-Clinton duopoly. Now, he looks like the weakest candidate in a field that includes Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb. With numbers close to the zero in New Hampshire, O'Malley is banking everything on a better-than-expected win in Iowa. While no one in the O'Malley campaign is expecting a win, they're hoping to exceed expectations and get new life breathed into the former Governor's bid for the White House. And so, with little to no surrogates, O'Malley is running around the Hawkeye State and hoping for the best.

February 1st, 2016

Iowa Caucuses starting: Results in the evening

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DES MOINES - The day has finally arrived. All around Iowa, voters are gathering to caucus for their preferred candidates, and the candidates are making one last push to convince as many people as possible. Andrew Cuomo and Lincoln Chafee are holding campaign events in New Hampshire today, but the rest are spending their hours in the Hawkeye State.

This is the current polling situation, before Iowans started voting:

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 33% () (-1)
Hillary Clinton- 28% () (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 21% () (+1)
Andrew Cuomo- 6% () (+-0)
Jim Webb- 4% () (+-0)
Martin O'Malley- 1% () (-1)
Lincoln Chafee- 2% () (+-0)
Undecided- 5% () (+-0)

Democratic Primary (Iowa)-
Barack Obama- 32% () (+1)
Hillary Clinton- 26% () (+-0)
Bernie Sanders- 23% () (+1)
Jim Webb- 10% () (+1)
Martin O'Malley- 3% () (+1)
Andrew Cuomo- 3% () (-1)
Lincoln Chafee- 0% () (+-0)
Undecided- 3% () (-3)

Democratic Primary (New Hampshire)-
Bernie Sanders- 29% () (+1)
Barack Obama- 27% () (+-0)
Hillary Clinton- 24% () (+-0)
Andrew Cuomo- 9% () (-1)
Lincoln Chafee- 5% () (+-0)
Martin O'Malley- 1% () (+-0)
Jim Webb- 0% () (+-0)
Undecided- 5% () (+-0)

Come on Bernie! I'm rooting for you!

()

The light from the TV screen was flickering in the dimly lit campaign HQ. A CNN reporter was standing in a caucus hall, reporting some statistical details about the voting that he already knew for a few hours. "High turnout today in the Democratic caucuses, we're seeing full halls even in rural areas... This could be a good omen for Sanders and Webb..."

The President lowered the volume, turned away from the screen and took another worried stroll back and forth in his office, the sound of his shoes muffled by the soft rug. Michelle was there, sitting on the sofa with Joe beside her as they watched the screen. Deval, who became his campaign's co-chair, was also there, seated on the opposite sofa with John [Kerry] and Tom [Vilsack]. His campaign's senior staff, Campaign Manager Jim Messina and Chief Strategist David Axelrod, were standing together, worriedly staring at the screen. It was five minutes before 7 p.m. CST, and soon, the results would start coming in.

"Come," Michelle said softly, patting on the place beside her. "Sit, Barack, don't be so tense. Whatever happens, you'll still be the frontrunner."

"Besides," Joe added in his usually cheeful tone, "the polls are looking good. Hillary is losing popularity, and Bernie is just too far away to catch up."

"Iowa is still make or break fo us." The President said nervously as he sat down. His leg was fidgeting. "We can basically put the primaries away here, or we can lose momentum and become a disappointment. I don't intend to be the first incumbent President to lose his primary in recent history."

"And you won't." David said confidently. "You have very strong opposition from the Clinton machine and from an insurgent progressive, something Bill or FDR didn't have to plague them. But we will emerge victorious."

"I hope you're right..." Obama replied pensively, his voice trailing off. Wolf Blitzer was announcing something in the TV, but the President didn't really hear, he was too absorbed in the discussion. "Still, this primary can hurt us in the general electio, and even if we're up against Trump, of all people, it still worries me that..."

"Wait," Tom said suddenly, pointing at the screen. "What did he say?"

Joe stared at the screen, his eyes wide. "I think he said that they can call the caucuses. Now. Without delay. At poll closing time."

Barack turned up the volume.

---

February 1st, 2016

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Democratic Iowa Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 35.9% (19 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 26.3% (13 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 25.0% (12 pledged delegates)
Jim Webb- 8.4% (0 pledged delegates)
Martin O'Malley- 2.2% (0 pledged delegates)
Andrew Cuomo- 1.7% (0 pledged delegates)
Lincoln Chafee- 0.3% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.2% (0 pledged delegates)

February 2nd, 2016

Barack Obama wins Iowa Caucuses by solid margin, Sanders places second

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DES MOINES - The Iowa Democratic Caucuses yesterday produced not just one big story, but two- the incumbent President's big win, and Senator Sanders' upset of Secretary Clinton to take the second place.

Barack Obama didn't only win the caucuses, but he won big- with a nearly double-digits margin, the President secured a doubtless mandate from the people of Iowa. Exit polls are indicating that he performed well across the board, winning among both men and women and most age groups. The only groups with which he lost are very young voters, 18-20, who voted for Sanders over him by a 2% margin. Pundits are speculating that the President's big win comes from a number of facors- Hillary Clinton's dropping popularity, his own big popularity in the Hawkeye State, and the support of prominent and well-loved Iowa politicians like Tom Vilsack and Tom Harkin. This is very good news for the President, who now gains powerful momentum and is the undisputed frontrunner.

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The other big news coming from Iowa is that Bernie Sanders, the Independent Vermont Senator, exceeded expectations and upset Hillary Clinton to take the second place in Iowa. This is very significant because, combined with a possible win in New Hampshire, it could make Sanders the main challenger to Obama. The self-described Democratic Socialist now gains even more steam, and could become a force to be reckoned with.

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Hillary Clinton, former frontrunner, is the big disappointment tonight. She hoped for a strong second place showing, maybe even a win, but instead got a weak third place, with her chief rival winning big and an insurgent progressive taking the second place. Clinton vows to continue and fight on, but without a win in Iowa, it's hard to see where her campaign can gain steam before Super Tuesday- New Hampshire looks unlikely to give her the same boost as in 2008, South Carolina looks like a lock for the President, and only Nevads appears paltable to her. We'll see where she continues from here.

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Jim Webb, Former Virginia Senator and Navy Secretary under the Reagan Administration, is perhaps the greatest loser of the caucuses. He hoped for a double digit victory, maybe even breaking the 15%, but he fell way short. This is a blow for Blue Dogs, who saw Webb's momentum in Iowa and nationwide as a glimmer of hope. But after his disappointing showing in Iowa, Webb has suspended his campaign for President, snuffing out that hope. Still, he hinted at, perhaps, a future run, or maybe even an independent bid.

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The slow but certain death of the O'Malley campaign didn't surprise anyone. The former Maryland Governor looked promising in the beginning, but he just couldn't find his place in the race. He tried to run as a strong progressive and liberal, but Sanders outdid him in that field. He tried to be the tough one on gun control or the experienced governor, but Barack Obama and Andrew Cuomo did it better. In the end, with polling numbers that give him no hope whatsoever, he had to withdraw.

In other news, the Republican Iowa Caucuses were won by Ted Cruz, with frontrunner Donald Trump placing second and Marco Rubio in a surprising third...

February 4th, 2016

Remaining Democrats gather for the last pre-New Hampshire debate

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DURHAM - as the Democratic campaigns swoop over New Hampshire in an attemt to make strong showings in the Granite State, their candidates gathered for a contentious debate. While Barack Obama, Bernie Sandes and Hillary Clinton just needed to prevent themselves from doing any major gaffes, Cuomo and Chafee needed big moments tonight if they wanted to break through. It didn't really materialize.

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Lincoln Chafee: "We have to repair American credibility after we told the world that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, which he didn’t. So there’s an issue of American credibility out there. So any time someone is running to be our leader, and a world leader, which the American president is, credibility is an issue out there with the world. And we have repair work to be done. I think we need someone that has the best in ethical standards as our next president. That’s how I feel."
Anderson Cooper: "Secretary Clinton, do you want to respond?"
Hillary Clinton: "Naw."

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Bernie Sanders: "I believe that President Obama did the right thing with the Iran Deal, and I applaud him, Secretary Clinton and Secretary Kerry for that. Now, I didn't say that we should normalize relations with Iran tomorrow like Secretary Clinton suggested. I didn't say that, and we should address the fact that Iran is a big sponsor of terrorism, but a few years ago no one thought that we can normalize relations with Cuba, but it happened. So it can happen."
Andrew Cuomo: "Come on, Senator. Iran is a sponsor of terrorism, just like you said. They support Hezbollah, they support Hamas, they threaten to destroy our allies in Israel, basically threatened a genocide! We need to be tough of them, and this deal isn't tough of them. I think the President made a mistake in striking that deal, and that it will allow Iran to make nuclear weapons further down the line and slip into the concensus despite their horrible actions."
Barack Obama: "I'm proud of that deal, and I stand behind that deal. We needed to stop a nuclear Iran and we succeeded- they're abiding by the terms, they're not building nuclear weapons, I consider this a success!"

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While performing better than usual, especially on foreign policy, Governor Cuomo didn't manage to make any breakthroughs, and Chafee sounded robotic. But the strengths and weaknesses of the other three candidates seem to start getting clearer- Clinton is better on foreign policy, Sanders is not very strong on that field but is very strong on economic policy, and Barack Obama seems to perform well on both and relies on his charisma.

Who do you think won the fifth Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 31%
Hillary Clinton- 27%
Bernie Sanders- 23%
Andrew Cuomo- 9%
Lincoln Chafee- 2%
Unsure- 8%

February 9th, 2016

Democrats campaign in New Hampshire one last time as primary voting starts

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CONCORD - As the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire begins and voters go to the polls, the Democratic candidates and their campaign canvass the state in an attempt to sway as many voters as possible. As Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama angle for a win, and Hillary Clinton for as strong a showing as possible, the two other campaigns are seeing the Granite State as one last chance to gain traction in the primaries.

Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY), initially considered a strong candidate, didn't manage to find his place in the primaries and was sunk by bad debate performances and attacks from other candidates. Now, he's looking at New Hampshire as his last chance. Meanwhile, former Governor Lincoln Chafee (D-RI) actually managed to perform better in the primaries than initially expected, but his polling numbers are still in very low single digits and his neighbouring state, New Hampshire, is his last and only chance to perform strongly in the primaries.

The three main contneders- Obama, Clinton and Sanders- were all initially hoping for victories here, but as the primary got closer, the President and the Vermont Senator seemed to gain an advantage over the former First Lady, whose campaign is now reportedly concentrating on Nevada as their last chance to win an early state. While Sanders, his progressive views surprisingly popular in the Granite State and hailing from the neighbouring Vermont, is currently favoured to win, President Obama is hoping that his momentum from the Iowa triumph will carry him over the line.

A new bunch of polling has been released before the primary, including polling averages for Nevada and South Carolina, where we see, respectively, a three way race and a strong Obama lead.

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 35% () (+2)
Hillary Clinton- 28% () (+-0)
Bernie Sanders- 22% () (+1)
Andrew Cuomo- 7% () (+1)
Lincoln Chafee- 2% () (+-0)
Undecided- 6% () (+1)

Democratic Primary (New Hampshire)-
Bernie Sanders- 30% () (+1)
Barack Obama- 29% () (+2)
Hillary Clinton- 24% () (+-0)
Andrew Cuomo- 8% () (-1)
Lincoln Chafee- 5% () (+-0)
Undecided- 4% () (-1)

Democratic Primary (Nevada)-
Hillary Clinton-29%
Barack Obama- 28%
Bernir Sanders- 27%
Andew Cuomo- 4%
Lincoln Chafee- 1%
Undecided- 11%

Democratic Primary (South Carolina)-
Barack Obama- 38%
Hillary Clinton- 27%
Bernie Sanders- 19%
Andrew Cuomo- 8%
Lincoln Chafee- 0%
Undecided- 8%

February 9th, 2016


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Democratic New Hampshire Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 37.5% (12 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 31.6% (8 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 19.8% (4 pledged delegates)
Andrew Cuomo- 6.1% (0 pledged delegates)
Lincoln Chafee- 3.8% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.2% (0 pledged delegates)

Great TL!! A Obama versus TRUMP election TL would be amazing.

Thanks! :) I'm hoping to get the primary wrapped up this month, it should go faster after the early states are done.

Aww.... was going for Webb all the way. Also, why is Chafee still in after O'Malley and Webb suspend?

He was banking on New Hampshire. But as you see... :P

February 10th, 2016

Sanders win big in New Hampshire, field narrows down to three

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CONCORD - The polls predicted a Sanders victory in his neighbouring New Hampshire, but not such a big one. In a possible reaffirmattion of his movement's staying power, Sanders won the primary in the granite state by more than 5%, defeating President Obama. In his victory speech, the Vermont Independent Senator said that his campaign "absolutely intends to win", and that he will go on to Nevada, South Carolina, Super Tuesday and beyond. The victory is expected to give him momentum going forward, and perhaps a real shot at the Presidency.

While the Obama Campaign isn't too bothered by the loss, with the President giving a high-spirited speech about going forward, the Clinton Campaign is reeling from their showing in the Granite State, less than 20%. This is considered a major blow to Clinton's already-weakening candidacy, and her last chance at survival is probably a victory in the Nevada Caucuses, where she has the support of casino workers. The former First Lady gave a somber speech and promised supporters to "fight to the end until the glass ceiling is broken".

But two other campaigns were struck a fatal blow by New Hampshire voters.

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When both Cuomo and Chafee underperformed their already-poor polling in the Granite State, it was no surprise to anyone that they would withdraw. While Chafee's endorsement of Obama carries little to no weight, Cuomo's endorsement, yet unrevealed, could have significance.

Now, with the field narrowed down to the big three, the sixth debate is looming close, followed by Nevada, South Carolina and Super Tuesday. On the Republican side, meanwhile, Donald Trump won New Hampshire, solidifying his status as frontrunner, with John Kasich coming second...

February 11th, 2016

Sixth Democratic debate held in Milwaukee, Obama considered victor

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MILWAUKEE - For the first time, the Democratic debate included only the big three frontrunners- President Obama, Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders. It was a debate that held importance for all three- Sanders needed to do well in order to keep on his momentum, Barack Obama needed to keep his status as frontrunner and Hillary Clinton needed to regain her quickly loosening grip on the runner-up status. However, results were fairly inconclusive- all three candidates managed to remain fairly strong, and no one slipped too hard. Still, Obama is considered the victor according to most polls. The major topics debated were Henry Kissinger's support for Clinton, Barack Obama's race relations legacy and, once again, healthcare. This exchange on healthcare was one of the defining moments of the debate:

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Hillary Clinton: "If it's Medicare for all, then you no longer have the Affordable Care Act, because the Affordable Care Act, as you know very well, is based on the insurance system, based on exchanges, based on a subsidy system. The Children's Health Insurance Program, which I helped to create, which covers 8 million kids, is also a different kind of program. So if you're having Medicare for all, single-payer, you need to level with people about what they will have at the end of the process you are proposing. And based on every analysis that I can find by people who are sympathetic to the goal, the numbers don't add up, and many people will actually be worse off than they are right now."
Bernie Sanders: "That is absolutely inaccurate. Look, here is the reality, folks. There is one major country on Earth that does not guarantee health care to all people. There is one major country - the United States - which ends up spending almost three times per capita what they do in the U.K. guaranteeing health care to all people, 50 percent more than they do in France guaranteeing health care to all people, far more than our Canadian neighbors, who guarantee health care to all people. Please do not tell me that in this country, if - and here's the if - we have the courage to take on the drug companies, and have the courage to take on the insurance companies, and the medical equipment suppliers, if we do that, yes, we can guarantee health care to all people in a much more cost effective way."
Barack Obama: "Um, look. I'm proud of the Affordable Care Act, or as many people like to call it, Obamacare. We've worked very hard to pass it, like Secretary Clinton said, and it was certainly not an easy process. But here's the thing- we can go forward. We will go forwar. It's the common sensical thing to do- we need to cover everyone, which includes the 10 percents who aren't covered right now. But the way to do it, at least right now, is, I think, a public option- an option that provides high-quality healthcare and could cover everyone. Look, right now, the insurance industry is controled by a very small amount of companies. That allows them to raise prices, to take more money out of working people. We're going to change that with a public option, a tough competition for all of them that will force them to make their insurance more attractive and to lower prices. It's a simple and doable solution, not a vague one which we don't know how to fund like the one Senator Sanders is proposing, and not a stagnant one like Secretary Clinton is proposing. And I pledge to do it in my third term."

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In the debate, Obama managed to position himself between Clinton and Sanders, to the left of the former First Lady but to the right of the Independent Senator. This could be a smart choice that attracts voters from both candidates, and could allow him to unite the party behind him. Let's look at the polls released after the debate:

Who do you think won the sixth Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 33%
Bernie Sanders- 29%
Hillary Clinton- 28%
Unsure- 10%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 38% () (+3)
Hillary Clinton- 30% () (+2)
Bernie Sanders- 25% () (+3)
Undecided- 7% () (+1)

Democratic Primary (Nevada)-
Hillary Clinton- 31% () (+2)
Bernir Sanders- 30% () (+3)
Barack Obama- 29% () (+1)
Undecided- 10% () (-1)

Democratic Primary (South Carolina)-
Barack Obama- 44% () (+6)
Hillary Clinton- 31% () (+4)
Bernie Sanders- 19% () (+-0)
Undecided- 6% () (-2)

This timeline is amazing.

February 19th, 2016

Clinton, Sanders campaign heavily in Nevada, Obama moves to solidify South Carolina

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LAS VEGAS - Ahead of the Nevada Caucuses tomorrow, Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are campaigning heavily in the Silver State. Namely, Bernie Sanders is lobbying for the support of Labour Unions and voters in rural areas, as well as young Las Vegas progressives, while Clinton is putting all her weight on gaining the support of Hispanics and casino workers. Meanwhile, Barack Obama is making a controversial move- he went to campaign in South Carolina today, and though he still campaigns in Nevada, it seems like he forfeited the state.

For the Secretary, especially, this state is incredibly important- she came third in both Iowa and New Hampshire, with an especially scalding result in the state that saved her 2008 campaign, and according to sources in the Clinton campaign, she will consider dropping out if she doesn't win Nevada.

These are the last poll numbers for the Democratic primaries:

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 38% () (+-0)
Hillary Clinton- 29% () (-1)
Bernie Sanders- 26% () (+1)
Undecided- 7% () (+-0)

Democratic Primary (Nevada)-
Hillary Clinton- 33% () (+2)
Bernir Sanders- 31% () (+1)
Barack Obama- 29% () (+-0)
Undecided- 7% () (-3)

Democratic Primary (South Carolina)-
Barack Obama- 46% () (+2)
Hillary Clinton- 30% () (-1)
Bernie Sanders- 18% () (-1)
Undecided- 6% () (+-0)

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Donald Trump is expected to sweep both South Carolina and Nevada, and the establishment is starting to panick...

February 20th, 2016

Clinton takes razor-thing victory in Nevada, Sanders close second

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LAS VEGAS - In a win that saved her campaign from immediate death and allowed her to continue for at least a little more, Hillary Clinton edged out her opponents in the Nevada Democratic Caucuses. It was an extremely narrow victory, though, with Bernie Sanders a very close second, less than 0.1% behind, and Barack Obama a not-too-distant third. According to exit polls, it appears like Hillary won the caucuses with the help of hispanic voters, to whom she appealed with immigration ads, and casino workers, with whom she and her husband campaigned extensively. Sanders, meanwhile, won amongst young and white voters, and Obama won only amongst the small African-American community in the Silver State.

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Democratic Nevada Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Hillary Clinton- 33.89% (14 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernir Sanders- 33.83% (13 pledged delegates)
Barack Obama- 30.88% (8 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.4% (0 pledged delegates)

As she gave her victory speech, the loyal supporters of the Clinton campaign cheered, but the tension in the HQ could still be felt- a South Carolina defeat was iminent, and then a tough Super Tuesday loomed, with an uncertain future for the former Secretary of State, Senator from New York and First Lady of the United States.

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Meanwhile, Trump wins the Republican South Carolina Primaries by a strong margin, forcing Jeb Bush to withdraw, and is looking more and more like an unstoppable frontrunner...

SPECIAL: The 2004 Democratic Primaries Part 2

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The Democratic nomination battle heat up after the non-binding Washington, D.C. primary was done. With Graham and Mosely Braun out, Howard Dean started gaining momentum leading up to Iowa- he performed strongly in debates, held big, enthusiastic rallies and attracted a large group of loyal grassroots supporters. Many liken Dean's campaign to that of another insurgent Vermont progressive- Bernie Sanders, in 2016, whom Dean did not, actually, endorse. Though both failed to clinch their party's nomination, both influenced the eventual nominee and forced him to move to the left. There was one, big difference, though- Dean's progressives did not have lasting power in the Democratic party, and the party's move to the left could only slightly be attributed to him. Sanders, meanwhile, helped cause a real change amongst Democrats, moving the whole party leftwards, with support to universal healthcare, free college tuition and more.

Both Dean and Gore, as well as other candidates who hoped to do well, like Clark, Gephardt and Edwards, campaigned heavily in Iowa. The polls before the caucuses were fairly close:

2004 Democratic Primary (Iowa)
Al Gore- 31%
Howard Dean- 28%
Dick Gephardt- 15%
Wesley Clark- 13%
John Edwards- 9%
Dennis Kucinich- 4%
Al Sharpton- 1%
Undecided- 4%

However, in the end, the former Vice President's popularity in the Hawkeye State, as well as Howard Dean's lack of appeal to rural voters, sealed the deal.


Senator Zell Miller (D-GA) giving his surprising endorsement of George Bush in a 2004 RNC keynote address

February 23rd, 2016

Andrew Cuomo endorses Hillary Clinton ahead of South Carolina

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CHARLESTON - In a joint South Carolina rally, New York Governor and former Democratic presidential hopeful Andrew Cuomo endorsed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for President. In his speech, Cuomo called for voters to vote for "a qualified candidate of change who has a proven track record of getting things done for hardworking Americans", and introduced her as "a great New Yorker, a tremendous public servant and my personal friend".

The endorsement does not surprise anyone- Cuomo has always been close to the Clintons, and reportedly hopes for the Vice Presidential spot, or even a prominent cabinet position like Secretary of State, in a possible Clinton Administration. Pundits speculate that after suspending his campaign due to his New Hampshire loss, Cuomo decided to wait until Nevada and see if the Clinton campaign could survive going forward, and now endorsed her in an attempt to boost her chances in South Carolina. Cuomo was polling at around 8%, sometimes even breaking into the double digits, in the Palmetto State before suspending his campaign. Here are the latest polling aggregates from the last early state before Super Tuesday, before Cuomo's endorsement of Clinton:

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 38% () (+-0)
Hillary Clinton- 30% () (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 27% () (+1)
Undecided- 5% () (-2)

Democratic Primary (South Carolina)-
Barack Obama- 47% () (+1)
Hillary Clinton- 31% () (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 18% () (+-0)
Undecided- 4% () (-2)

February 27th, 2016

Barack Obama triumphs in South Carolina, candidates brace for Super Tuesday

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COLUMBIA - It was not a surprise to anyone, and yet it will still have an effect. President Obama, facing a tough challenge from Hillary Clinton, secured a solid victory in South Carolina, despite worries in the Obama campaign that Andrew Cuomo's endorsement of the former First Lady would swing his former supporters towards her and make the contest uncomfortably close.

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Democratic South Carolina Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 50.6% (28 pledged delegates) ✓
Hillary Clinton- 32.8% (17 pledged delegates)
Bernie Sanders- 16.2% (8 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.4% (0 pledged delegates)

In his victory speech, Obama thanked the peple of South Carolina for their "amazing support" and pledged to "continue the fight against discrimination" and to "help ease racial tensions in our great country". This victory is expected to help Obama in the next contests- Super Tuesday- and make life much harder for Hillary Clinton there.

With only two days left until these contests, and one debate tomorrow, the candidates are canvassing the many states that will vote in Tuesday. while both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are hoping for victories in southern states, where they both showed power, Senator Sanders is banking on the numerous northeastern and caucus states that will vote, where he's expected to do well because of regional advantage for the former, and the enthusiasm of his supporters for the latter.

The Clinton campaign is especially worried about Super Tuesday- sources claim that if she doesn't win enough states, Clinton might withdraw following these contests, as she doesn't wish to keep splitting the same base with the President and fears that would allow Bernie Sanders to become the nominee. Clinton campaign manager Roby Mook denied the rumours, saying that "the Secretary is in this race to win and become the first woman President".

This is the state of the race before Super Tuesday:

Democratic Primaries
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American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad

Barack Obama- 63 delegates
Hillary Clinton- 47 delegates
Bernie Sanders- 46 delegates
Others- 0 delegates

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Note: Sorry about the alarmingly fast pace of updates :P I just want to wrap up the primaries soon, and start with the general election and the next administration.

Go as fast or as slow as you want!

February 28th, 2016

Obama faces fire in final pre-Super Tuesday debate

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BIRMINGHAM - The fiery seventh Democratic debate, held in Birmingham, Alabama one day before Super Tuesday, it was clear who was the frontrunner. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders mostly ignored each other, though the Vermond Senator did occasionally attack the former First Lady, and focused on the incumbent President who stood in the podium between them. But despite the attacks, Barack Obama managed to hold his own. Hillary Clinton hoped to have a breakthrough today and save her campaign in Super Tuesday, but it did not materialize. Here are a few key moments from the debate:

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Chris Wallace: "Secretary Clinton, in conclusion, do you believe that you should've been chosen as the Democratic candidate in 2008? Would you do a better job than President Obama?"
Hillary Clinton: "Well, Chris, I do think that my friend Barack Obama has been an excellent President. He navigated through rough international waters, he brought healthcare to thousands of Americans, and I praise him for that. But I'll say this- I do think that he could've worked with Congress a bit better. The Republicans were obstructionists, of course, and I think they did a great disservice to the American people by refusing to cooperate or give a hearing to Justice Garland, for example. But I do think that the President could've done better in working with Congress, and I know how to work with the congressional Republicans."
Chris Wallace: "It's a yes or no question, Secretary. Would you or would you not do a better job than President Obama?"
Hillary Clinton: "Well, I think... there is very much a possibility that I would've done better with Congress. I think I would."
Barack Obama: "You know, Chris, I've been a Senator and a State Senator before that. Not for very long... but I've done the job. And I can tell you it's very different from the Presidency. As a Senator, you're a vote, and Republicans could try to work with you on the issues to get your vote, especially when they're the party in power, as they were when Secretary Clinton was a Senator. But as President, the current congressional Republican leadership targets you, and tries to obstruct and take down your Presidency. But I'm not complaining- I came to work, and I intend to work and make the lives of Americans better, and hopefully, next year, with a congressional majority!"

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Bernie Sanders: "Me and the President are in agreement about many policies. This is true. But we also have many areas of disagreement, and this is where our movement comes in- for example, the President accepts donations from the top 1%, while I accept small donations, averaging 27$, from the 99%."
Barack Obama: "Uh, that's inaccurate, Senator. I have more than 800,000 donors, and I think you can agree that the majority of them are small donors, contributing small donations."
Bernie Sanders: "I know that, Mr. President, and I respect your small donors. But you have Super PACs, as well. When extraordinarily wealthy people make very large contributions to Super PACs, and in many cases in this campaign, Super PACs have raised more money than individual candidates have, OK? We had a decision to make early on, do we do a Super PAC? And, we said no. We don't represent Wall Street, we don't represent the billionaire class, so it ends up I'm the only candidate up here who has no Super PAC."
Barack Obama: "And I respect you, for that. I truly do. (APPLAUSE) Yes, that's right, Senator Sanders deserves this! He ran a great campaign that energized so many voters, and it's a very positive thing. But look, Super PACs have been a part of our process for long, and our campaign made the decision not to refuse the PACs that wanted to support us. But I agree that we need to reform our campaign finance system, and I hope to work with you on that in my third term!"

Who do you think won the seventh Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 38%
Bernie Sanders- 30%
Hillary Clinton- 25%
Unsure- 7%

March 1st, 2016

Candidates make last campaign appearances before Super Tuesday

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ATLANTA - As voting begins in the various Super Tuesday states, the three Democratic contneders are making last appearances in states that they're targeting. While they did have more specific focuses, all three candidates are running ads and campaign events in practically every state that will be voting.

The target of each campaign today is quite different. Barack Obama needs to sweep a majority of states and delegates and show his strength in both the south and other areas of the country that will be voting today- he must come out the victor, and reaffirm himself as frontrunner. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders needs to stage at least one or two upsets in states that polls aren't expecting him to win, and show that he has strength all accross the country. And finally, Hillary Clinton needs to win at least more states than Sanders, in order to keep her status as the main challenger to the incumbent President. Results coming this evening, stay tuned!

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Barack Obama campaigning with First Lady Michelle Obama and Vice President Joe Biden in Houston, Texas

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Bernie Sanders holding a campaign event in Boston, Massachusetts

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Hillary Clinton holding a rally in Richmond, Virginia with Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)

March 2nd, 2016

SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS

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RICHMOND - Last night, the campaigns of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were put into an ultimate test as results started pouring from Super Tuesday. Some of the states weren't close and the networks called them early, with one state, Vermont, being called for its Senator at poll closing time. But other states were tight and nerve-wrecking, and were only called this morning. In the end, this was a mixed night for both President Obama and Senator Sanders, with some disappointments but many successes. But it was a bad night for Secretary Clinton, who only won two states. Let's examine the results again:

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Democratic Alabama Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.1% (26 pledged delegates) ✓
Hillary Clinton- 34.5% (19 pledged delegates)
Bernie Sanders- 15.6% (8 pledged delegates)
Martin O'Malley- 0.5% (0 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente- 0.3% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic American Samoa Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 50.6% (4 pledged delegates) ✓
Hillary Clinton- 21.8% (1 pledged delegates)
Bernie Sanders- 20.4% (1 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente- 6.2% (0 pledged delegates)
Lincoln Chafee- 1.0% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Arkansas Primary results, 100% counted:
Hillary Clinton- 40.3% (14 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 35.5% (11 pledged delegates)
Bernie Sanders- 20.8% (7 pledged delegates)
Others- 3.4% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Colorado Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 41.3% (31 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 33.4% (21 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 24.7% (14 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.6% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Georgia Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 53.9% (54 pledged delegates) ✓
Hillary Clinton- 27.1% (29 pledged delegates)
Bernie Sanders- 18.7% (19 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.3% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Massachusetts Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 36.8% (36 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 36.2% (35 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 26.4% (20 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.6% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Minnesota Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 44.0% (35 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 37.7% (29 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 18.3% (13 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.1% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Oklahoma Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 45.1% (18 pledged delegates) ✓
Hillary Clinton- 25.9% (11 pledged delegates)
Barack Obama- 23.7% (9 pledged delegates)
Others- 4.3% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Tennessee Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 39.5% (27 pledged delegates) ✓
Hillary Clinton- 35.9% (25 pledged delegates)
Bernie Sanders- 23.5% (15 pledged delegates)
Jim Webb- 1.1% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Texas Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 43.2% (101 pledged delegates) ✓
Hillary Clinton- 35.7% (82 pledged delegates)
Bernie Sanders- 20.1% (39 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.0% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Vermont Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 80.1% (16 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 11.2% (0 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 8.5% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.2% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Virginia Primary results, 100% counted:
Hillary Clinton- 36.3% (37 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 35.8% (36 pledged delegates)
Bernie Sanders- 24.5% (22 pledged delegates)
Jim Webb- 3.4% (0 pledged delegates)

---

While Barack Obama's popularity with the African-American community brought him solid victories in the southern states of Alabama and Georgia, many other states in the south were considered battlegrounds that both he and Secretary Clinton contested.

In the delegate-rich state of Texas, the President received the endorsement of most of the congressial delegation and campaigned there with popular Texas Democrats, including the Castro brothers. This, despite Clinton's strength with the Hispanic community, netted him a strong win. In Tennessee, Barack Obama campaigned with Al Gore, and, combined with his strength with the African American community and Sanders winning many of the white voters that gave Clinton a victory here in 2008, allowed Obama to take Tennessee this time around. Clinton only won Arkansas, where she was First Lady, and narrowly took Virginia, where she campaigned with Governor Terry McAuliffe, one of her earliest endorsers.

But outside of the south, Bernie Sanders sweeped all the states. He proved his strength in caucus states by taking strong wins in Oklahoma, Minnesota and Colorado, and won an overwhelming landslide in his home state of Vermont, but his most surprising victory was the one in Massachussetts. There, he managed to win young, progressive voters and narrowly defeat Barack Obama, taking a plurality. This is considered another instance where the Obama-Clinton split of the establishment vote resulted in a victory for Bernie Sanders.

Following the Super Tuesday results, Senator Sanders is sure to continue his insurgent campaign and attempt to influence the Democratic agenda, maybe even win the nomination. The incumbent President, who solidified himself as the frontrunner last night, is also sure to remain in the race, but after winning only two states, Hillary Clinton's future is uncertain, and this morning, she flew back to her campaign HQ in New York City. When asked for comment, campaign spokesperson Howard Wolfson said that "the Secretary returned to New York to rest after spirited campaigning".

()

The data was flashing on the screen before his eyes. Robby Mook tried to make out something positive out of it. Some hope to cling to.

The next states to vote were Kansas, Nebraska and Louisiana. In the former two, Bernie was leading. In the latter, Obama. Hillary was third in all three. He tried to look at some of the later states. Obama leading in California and Maryland, Bernie leading in Pennsylvannia and Ohio... Heh, at least we're leading New York and New Jersey. Narrowly. Jesus... Bernie won his home state by almost 70%, and Obama is leading in his by landslide margins. And we're going to lose New York if this trend continues. Jesus...

The Campaign Manager sighed and closed the window of state polling. But national polling was showing an even bleaker picture- after Super Tuesday, Bernie passed Hillary and was now consistently second in the polls. Hillary was in the high 20s. Of course, they weren't going to release these internal polls to the media, but someone was bound to, eventually.

He looked at his Email. A new poll from PPP, soon to be released. When he saw the numbers, a few very inappropriate words for an election forum passed in Robby's mind. Obama 43%, Bernie 31%, Hillary 22%, Undecided 4%. Roby started to hate emails- recently, all they brought was bad news.

Someone knocked at his door. He sighed and turned away from the screen. "Yes?"

It was Stephanie [Hannon, Chief Technology Officer of the Clinton campaign]. "Robby..." She said quietly. Nothing could be discerned in her still face. "She wants to see us. Down in the conference room."

Robby gulped nervously. Hillary was huddled with her close circle ever since Super Tuesday. He nodded and stood up, following Stephanie down the stairs.

The conference room was so quiet, it could be mistaken for a mourning room. Everyone was sitting there- Hillary at the head of the table, Bill beside her. Huma was there too, of course, as was John [Podesta]. And when he saw their faces, grim and somber, the Campaign Manager knew what it meant.

"It's over, isn't it?"

#Obama2016

()

The phone rang right when they were in the middle of a strategy session.

Everyone turned to look at Campaign Manager Jim Messina. He looked embarrassed. "Go on," Barack told him. "Let's see who this is."

Jim checked the phone, and his eyes grew wide when he looked down on the screen. "Robby Mook. Wow."

Now the President's interest was piqued, as was the interest of everyone else in the room. "Answer it!" Joe said excitedly, leaning forward.

The Campaign Manager nodded. He turned on the speaker mode and answered. "Jim Messina speaking. Yes?"

"Hello." Robby Mook's voice was flat. "Hillary is going to suspend tomorrow."

Everyone in the room smiled at the same time. Deval raised a thumb, grinning. "We're going to win this now," he whispered.

"That's good, it's time to unite the party." Jim replied formally. "Thank you for letting us know."

"There's more," Robby added hastily before his fellow Campaign Manager could end the call. "Do you want her to endorse you in the speech?"

That one was a shocker. The room grew quiet, as everyone took in the news. "Wait a moment, Robby. Let me just speak to the President and the others." He silenced the phone and looked up. "Well, this was unexpected."

"We should probably accept." Deval scratched his chin. "With Hillary's supporters, we'll have an insurmountable lead against Bernie."

"Yeah," Joe urged him, "let her endorse you and campaign for you. We need to put this primary behind us."

"Do we, though?" David Axelrod wondered aloud. Everyone looked at him in surprise. "If Hillary endorses us... sure, we'll win the primary easily. But it can alienate the Bernie supporters. These guys don't like Hillary, and she's very unpopular with the general electorate after this email thing. Once she endorses us, we'll forever have the label of establishment candidates. We don't need her endorsement- we can win this easily, anyway. And that way, with Hillary's endorsement unknown, they'll have an easier time uniting behind us in the General."

The President thought about it for a few moments. If Hillary endorsed him now, about 20% of the Democratic electorate, her loyal core supporters, would flock to him, and if you add that to Barack's current numbers, Bernie would lose almost every state. Winning the primary right now, putting the challenge away and focusing on the general... it was tempting. But David's words made sense. He reached a decision, and looked at Jim.

"Tell him not yet."

---

()

()

March 4th, 2016

BREAKING: Hillary Clinton suspends her campaign, makes no endorsement

()

NEW YORK CITY - After a disappointing showing in Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton shook the politican world by announcing that she's suspending her campaign in front of a crowd of supporters in Brooklyn, New York. With husband Bill Clinton, daughter Chelsea and son-in-law Marc Mezvinsky standing behind her, the former Secretary of State thanked her supporters and spoke about gender issues and sounded like someone who's ending her political career, conceding that "someone else" will break the glass ceiling.

Noteably, Clinton didn't make any endorsement in her speech- she was expected by most pundits to endorse the incumbent President in an attempt to end the primaries, but this did not seem to happen. She only told supporters that they should "remain engaged and support the candidate who speaks to you in tone and policy", and urged them to vote for whoever wins the Democratic nomination in the general elction so that America can "continue the progress". When asked who does the former First Lady support, Campaign Chair John Podesta said that "what Secretary Clinton said yesterday speaks for itself".

The Obama campaign, nonetheless, is expected to benefit from this the most, with the establishment vote no longer split and progressives finding him much more paltable than Clinton. Polls showed that as many as two-thirds of Clinton's supporters had Obama as their second choice. Still, Sanders vowed in a rally today to "continue and fight the broken political system", and is expected to remain a strong challenger to President Obama.

This is the current state of the race:

Democratic Primaries
()
American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad

Barack Obama- 416 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton- 312 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders- 293 pledged delegates
Others- 0 pledged delegates

March 5th, 2016

Obama wins Louisiana, Nebraska; Sanders wins Kansas

()

OMAHA - It was a good day for Barack Obama. The incumbent President was expected to easily win Louisiana, and he did, but he also managed to exceed expectations and narrowly win the state of Nebraska, where polling showed Senator Sanders winning. The Independent Vermont Senator only won in Kansas.

()
Democratic Louisiana Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 71.4% (40 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 16.7% (11 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton: 8.2% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 2.7% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic Nebraska Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.5% (13 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 48.3% (12 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 2.2% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic Kansas Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 57.6% (20 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 38.0% (13 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 4.4% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0% (0 pledged delegates)

It's interesting to look at the county map of the Nebraska caucuses:

()
As we can see, Bernie Sanders did very well in rural counties, normally radically conservative, sweeping most of the Nebraska panhandle and the Rainwater Basin. Unlike six years ago, when Obama managed to defeat another candidate who did well in rural areas, Hillary Clinton, by a big margin thanks to overwhelming victories in urban centers, this time, Sanders kept it close by only narrowly losing urban counties. In Douglas, the county containing Omaha, Obama defeated him only 51.7%-48.3%, while in Lancastar, the county containing state capital Lincoln, It came to a few hundreds of votes, and Obama edged out Sanders by 50.03%-49.97%. Nonetheless, Sanders was expected to do better today, and the narrow loss in Nebraska comes as a disappointment.

The current state of the race:

Democratic Primaries
()
American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad

Barack Obama- 482 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders- 336 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton- 312 pledged delegates
Others- 0 pledged delegates

March 6th, 2016

Obama, Sanders exchange fire in eighth Democratic debate as results from Maine Caucuses come in

()

FLINT - It was a very eventful night for the Democrats. In a debate hosted by the city where an ongoing water crisis was blamed on the Republicans, who hold Congress and the Governor's Mansion in Flint, Obama and Sanders sparred on a large variety of issues, including foreign policy, trade and campaign finance reform. Noteably, Barack Obama came out in defence of the TPP, and is expected to work on changing the public opinion on it. But on one issue they fully agreed- the Republicans botched handling of the Flint Water Crisis. But there was another major event today for the Democrats.

()
Democratic Maine Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 60.4% (15 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 37.9% (10 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 1.6% (0 pledged delegates)
Uncommited- 0.1% (0 pledged delegates)

Near the end of the debate, moderator Anderson Cooper announced that CNN has called the Maine Caucuses for Senator Bernie Sanders, and by a substantial margin as well. This call brought an interesting moment, when the lose of the Caucuses, President Obama, had to comment on the results when standing by the victor, Senator Sanders. Let's look at a few highlights:

()
Bernie Sanders: "Me and the President agree on many issues, but there is one thing that his administration is doing, one thing I really can't support. And this is the TPP trade agreement. It's a disastrous policy that makes outsourcing jobs to countries with problematic labour laws awfully easy, and it hurts the working class."
Barack Obama: "I believe that this is a major issue where populist rhetoric has really distorted the facts. This is an agreement with countries like Canada, Mexico, Japan and Australia, countries with good labour laws, that promotes lowering costs, lowering poverty, and yes, it promotes the creation of jobs, in all the countries signing it, in the U.S. as well. This agreement has binding, enforceable obligations on signing countries to protect labour unions and to eliminate exploitative child labor, to eliminate forced labor, to protect against employment discrimination. Without this agreemet, we're ceding the trade market around the Pacific Ocean to China. We're letting them lead the global economy. Do we want that? No, we do not, because China doesn't have the same standards as we do. This is an agreement that will improve the lives of so many people, both in America and outside it, and I'm fully ready to defend it."

()
Woman in the audience: "Mr. President, you've been in office for eight years, all throughout the water crisis here, but it's still happening. Don't you have some of the blame for it?"
Barack Obama: "Thank you for this question. Well, the way I see it, this is one of the worse sanitarian crises in recent years in our country. It's terrible- people shouldn't be so exposed to poison, they shouldn't fear a shower or a glass of water. And I've tried to do what I can to fix the water supply here, but in order for this to happen, we need the Republican Congress to approve federal funding for this crisis, and we need Governor Snyder to start taking it seriously. What we see here is a result of the myth Republican politicians believe in, that the government is a negative force that shouldn't get involved, and of racism still deep-rooted in our society. We will do everything we can for Flint, and once again, I urge congress for action."

()
Anderson Cooper: "Hold on, mr. President, Senator. We have a major call to make here on CNN- Bernie Sanders, standing here on this stage tonight, is the victor of the Maine Caucuses, defeating the other man on the stage by more than 20%. Senator?"
Bernise Sanders: (Grinning) "Well, I want to thank the people of Maine so much for their support. It means the world to me, and I hope we can continue forward with changing our broken political system and our economy so that they benefit everyone, not just the top 1%. Clearly, the people of Maine believe in that."
Anderson Cooper: "President Obama? Do you want to respond to that loss tonight? Clearly, Senator Sanders is beating you, an incumbent President, in many rural, working-class areas. Why is that?"
Barack Obama: "Well, uh, first of all, I want to thank my voters in Maine as well. I promise that we will go forward and that I will not disappoint you. And I want to thank Senator Sanders' voters as well, and everyone else who engaged in the Caucuses. You're what's moving our great democracy. Now, as for the question, I do see the Senator's strong performance in these areas, and it's clear to me that his message is resounding with voters there. I take this to heart, and I promise you- in the general election, I will do my best to speak about the issues that matter to these voters, and about the ways to solve them, about many of which I am in agreement with Senator Sanders."

Who do you think won the eighth Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 56%
Bernie Sanders- 36%
Unsure- 8%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 55% () (+17)
Bernie Sanders- 38% () (+11)
Undecided- 7% () (+2)

Democratic Primary (Michigan)-
Barack Obama- 53%
Bernie Sanders- 41%
Undecided- 6%

Democratic Primary (Mississipi)-
Barack Obama- 78%
Bernie Sanders- 18%
Undecided- 4%

Democratic Primary (Florida)-
Barack Obama- 61%
Bernie Sanders- 34%
Undecided- 5%

Democratic Primary (Illinois)-
Barack Obama- 74%
Bernie Sanders- 23%
Undecided- 3%

Democratic Primary (Missouri)-
Bernie Sanders- 47%
Barack Obama- 46%
Undecided- 7%

Democratic Primary (North Carolina)-
Barack Obama- 59%
Bernie Sanders- 36%
Undecided- 5%

Democratic Primary (Ohio)-
Barack Obama- 54%
Bernie Sanders- 42%
Undecided- 4%

March 8th, 2016

Obama wins Mississippi, Michigan, Sanders considerably outperforms Michigan polling

LANSIG - A good night for the Obama campaign, as the incumbent President managed to win both primaries held today, in deep southern Mississippi and in midwestern Michigan. Sanders was hoping for an upset in Michigan, but though he almost achieved it, keeping the state surprisingly close and outperforming his polls by close to 10%, Obama clinched the victory here in the end.

Pundits are speculating that the polling in Michigan was so far away from the actual result because the pollsters were using erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate from the 2008 contest, which had very low participation because the state wasn't worth any delegates, after a dispute with the DNC.

Sanders' surprisingly strong performance is attributed to his powerful showing with rural voters, as well as with factory workers who are hostile to the trade deals championed by the President- Sanders won white voters, who made up more than 70% of the electorate, by a 52-45 margin. But in the end, Obama's landslide margin with African-Americans and his big victories in urband areas such as Flint and Detroit (attributed by some to him saving the auto industry in that city), allowed him to take a narrow win.

()
Democratic Mississippi Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 85.7% (36 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 11.4% (0 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton: 2.3% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.6% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic Michigan Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.8% (67 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 48.5% (63 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.9% (0 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton: 0.8% (0 pledged delegates)

State of the race:

Democratic Primaries
()
American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad

Barack Obama- 595 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders- 414 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton- 312 pledged delegates
Others- 0 pledged delegates

March 9th, 2016

Sanders, Obama participate in ninth Democratic debate

()

MIAMI - In a debate sponsored by Washington Post and Univision, with Spanish-speaking moderators, President Barack Obama and his challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders, sparred in a contentious debate. They discussed issues like immigration reform, the environment and many other issues, and according to post-debate polls, no one managed to win the debate, with both candidates performing well. Let's look at a few key moments in the debate:

()
Moderator: So in conclusion, would it be fair to call Donald Trump a racist?
Bernie Sanders: "Look, this man's rhetoric is terrible. The way he speaks about Hispanics, about women, about African Americans... the fact that he was leading the birther movement, it's deploreable, and I'm pleased to be leading him by close to 20% in the polls. My father was a Polish immigrant, so I know a little bit about the immigrant experience. And I was never asked to show my birth certificate- maybe because of the colour of my skin."
Barack Obama: "I'm absolutely in agreement with the Senator here. I hope that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee, because even the chance of him becoming President is bizarre, but if he will, we will stand against all of this rhetoric of his."

()
Moderator: "President Obama, the question was... the question was, so why did you not pass immigration reform in these 8 years, after promising it so much?"
Barack Obama: "In short? The Republican congress. In length? We've tried, many times, to pass comprehensive immigration reform. We worked with Republicans, such as the Band of Eight, but every time, the hardline GOP Congressmen derail our work with their inflammatory comment and their incitement against immigrants. We actually came close in 2007, when we were ready to pass a bill sponsored by Ted Kennedy, with support from both Democrats and Republicans, but in the end, it failed because of hardliners from the left and from the right who voted against it, including Senator Sanders."
Bernie Sanders: "I remember this bill, and I remember why I voted against it. This bill had a guest worker provision that allowed near-slavery, and I couldn't, in good concsiousness, vote for it."
Barack Obama: "Well, first of all, near-slavery is a very far-fetched way to put it. Second-
 was this bill perfect? No. Was it our best chance to pass a comprehensive reform? Yes. We will work on it in my next term, and I hope tha Senator Sanders will work with us then."

Who won the ninth Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 45%
Bernie Sanders- 43%
Unsure- 12%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 56% () (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 38% () (+-0)
Undecided- 6% () (-1)

Democratic Primary (Florida)-
Barack Obama- 62% () (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 33% () (-1)
Undecided- 5% () (+-0)

Democratic Primary (Illinois)-
Barack Obama- 73% () (-1)
Bernie Sanders- 22% () (-1)
Undecided- 5% () (+2)

Democratic Primary (Missouri)-
Bernie Sanders- 47% () (+-0)
Barack Obama- 47% () (+1)
Undecided- 6% () (-1)

Democratic Primary (North Carolina)-
Barack Obama- 61% () (+2)
Bernie Sanders- 35% () (-1)
Undecided- 4% () (-1)

Democratic Primary (Ohio)-
Barack Obama- 52% () (-2)
Bernie Sanders- 44% () (+2)
Undecided- 4% () (+-0)

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 56%
Donald Trump- 33%
Other/Undecided- 11%

Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump (General)
Bernie Sanders- 53%
Donald Trump- 34%
Other/Undecided- 13%

March 12th, 2016

Candidates campaign in Mega Tuesday state; Obama wins Northern Mariana Islands

COLUMBUS - As the March 15 contests, dubbed Super Tuesday II or Mega Tuesday, get closer, the campaigns of the Democratic candidates, Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders, are canvassing them with rallies and ads.

While the President's home state, Illinois, is not considered competitive, Sanders is heavily campaigning in the other states, focusing on Ohio and Missouri, where the electorate was shown to be friendly to him, but also investing in Florida, though the polls don't seem good for him there. They're employing their strongest surrogates and heaviest guns in these states, and at times, it seems like these are the deciding contests of the race.

()
Bernie Sanders campaigning in Cleveland, Ohio with Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH)


President Obama and Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) campaigning in Orlando

Meanwhile, Barack Obama achieved a large victory in the Caucuses of Northern Mariana Islands, an American territory:

()
Democratic Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 59.1% (4 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 28.5% (2 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente: 12.4% (0 pledged delegates)

March 15th, 2016

Obama sweeps most four out of five contests, proclaims victory

()

CHICAGO - The current trends in the Democratic primaries seem to continue. While Obama won tonight very large victory in states with large minority populations, Sanders overperformed his polls in rustbelt states, where white working-class voters are the majority of the electorate. But in the end, the incumbent President is considered the victory tonight- he won landslide victories in three states, kept a narrow lead in Ohio, where his strength with urban and minority voters gave him a commanding victory, and only narrowly Missouri, where Sanders won strong margins with white working-class voters.

With age groups, the Presidnet continued winning old voters, which, among other factors, gave him his landslide in Florida. Young voters seem torn- both Obama and Sanders are popular among them, but Sanders won them narrowly tonight, 52-47. Noteable, first-time voters go for Sanders overwhelmingly, while older but still young voters, who voted for Obama in his 2008 and 2012 campaigns, are going for the President. These wins give Obama, according to our count, an almost insurmountable delegate lead.

In his victory speech before a large crowd in Chicago, Obama proclaimed that "we've almost won the Democratic, and we will continue winning more and more states, but it's time to look forward- let's win this election, and defeat the radical, obstructionist agenda of the Republican Part". Indeed, the entire tone of his speech seemed to be focusing on the general election, targeting Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and the Republican establishment. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders thanked his supporters and promised to "go forward and bring our message to everyone". Let's review the results tonight:

()
Democratic Florida Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 68.2% (151 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 28.4% (63 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton: 3.1% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.2% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic Illinois Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 80.9% (127 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 17.8% (29 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.3% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic Missouri Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 50.6% (37 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 48.7% (34 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.7% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic North Carolina Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 64.6% (70 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 34.8% (37 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.6% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic Ohio Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.7% (73 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 47.8% (70 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 2.0% (0 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente- 0.5% (0 pledged delegates)

Current state of the race:

Democratic Primaries
()
American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad

Barack Obama- 1054 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders- 652 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton- 312 pledged delegates
Others- 0 pledged delegates

Keep it up!

Thanks everyone! :) New update in a few minutes. University is starting soon though, so I'll probably not be able to keep the same pace.

March 22th, 2016

Sanders wins Idaho, Utah; Obama takes Arizona

()

PHOENIX - As the Democratic race enters grounds more favourable to Senator Sanders, he seems to be doing well, as expected, in majority-white caucus states, while President Obama wins more minority-rich primary states. But while Sanders won two out of three states today, he won them by a smaller margin than expected and lost Arizona by a bigger one than the polls initially showed.

As polls show President Obama gaining popularity with both the Democrats and the general electorate, it seems like his party is finally starting to close ranks and the Vermont Independent Senator's insurgent campaign is starting to slip out of his hands. This is evident in the Democrats Abroad primary, the results of which we've received yesterday:

()
Democrats Abroad Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 54.8% (8 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 44.5% (5 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.7% (0 pledged delegates)

The survival of Bernie Sanders' campaign, according to experts and inside sources, seems to depend on the next few sets of primaries, starting from the three caucus states voting next week, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska, going through Wisconsin, and ending with the northeastern primaries, where he must perform well. However, it will not be easy- Sanders is favoured in caucus states, but the President is wildly popular in his birth state of Hawaii, the Wisconsin polls are tight, and Obama has leads throughout the northeast. Let's look at today's results:

()
Democratic Arizona Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 68.2% (52 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 30.7% (23 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.1% (0 pledged delegates)


()
Democratic Utah Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 61.3% (22 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 38.7% (13 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.1% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic Idaho Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 53.8% (13 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 45.9% (10 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.3% (0 pledged delegates)

March 26th, 2016

Obama sours Sanders victories in Washington and Alaska, wins Hawaii

()

HONOLULU - Despite hopes in the Sanders campaign for a string of three victories in the caucuses today, President Obama held on in his birth state of Hawaii and won the caucuses there by a large margin. The Vermont Senator, meanwhile, won a landslide victory in Alaska and a solid one in Washington, continuing to show his strength in caucus states and with the white working class.

Once again, Sanders' margins in states where he was favoured seemed underwhelming, and it increasingly appears like his campaign is dependant on a Wisconsin victory if it is to survive. Still, Sanders proclaimed victory tonight in a Milwaukee rally, vowing to continue and saying that the string of victories in rural states prove that "forgotten Americans want a change". Both him and the President are heavily campaigning in Wisconsin now, and it looks like the primary there might be the most important contest since Super Tuesday II.

()
Democratic Alaska Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 60.3% (10 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 39.6% (6 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.1% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic Hawaii Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 58.4% (15 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 41.6% (10 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

()
Democratic Idaho Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 56.1% (57 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 43.9% (44 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

Finally, let's take a look at the current state of the race:

Democratic Primaries
()
American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad

Barack Obama- 1202 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders- 792 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton- 312 pledged delegates
Others- 0 pledged delegates

Damm this race is close but after NY Its going to be over for Sanders
Also whats the republican field looking like?

Exactly the same as IRL. Which means that Trump will be the nominee ;)

That should be really interesting to see trump and Obama go at each other
Trump may have disliked clinton but he HATED Obama so these debates are going to be intense

What do you mean? Trump clearly has a huge crush on Obama, just look at the way he's always talked about him. I'm not joking

OML actually LOL

April 5th, 2016

Bernie Sanders wins narrows victory in Wisconsin; race shifts to the northeast

()

MILWAUKEE - In a win that probably saved his campaign from death, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) narrowly defeated Barack Obama in the Wisconsin Primary. Once again displaying his strength among working class voters, Sanders sweeped them by large margins, while losing African Americans to Obama. Young voters went narrowly for Sanders, once again.

Sanders thanked his supporters for "voting your interest" and promised them to keep fighting for matters of importance for them such as medicaid-for-all, free college tuition, campaign finance reform and fair trade. President Obama, meanwhile, looked in high spirits in his speech and promised voters that "we're going to win the primaries, win the general election, and continue bringing positive change".

()
Democratic Wisconsin Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 49.5% (44 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 48.7% (42 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.8% (0 pledged delegates)

With the primary in the Badger State done, the Democratic primaries shift towards the northeast, starting from the all-important New York Primary and ending with the Acela Primaries in five other states in the region. This is considered the last chance for Bernie Sanders to reemerge and gain the mantle of frontrunner, and the President's chance to dispatch his primary challenger once and for all. Currently, Obama is favoured in most of them, but Sanders is certainly competitive. Let's look at the last polls:


Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 59% () (+3)
Bernie Sanders- 37% () (-1)
Undecided- 4% () (-2)

Democratic Primary (New York)-
Barack Obama- 50%
Bernie Sanders- 46%
Undecided- 4%

Democratic Primary (Connecticut)-
Barack Obama- 51%
Bernie Sanders- 42%
Undecided- 7%

Democratic Primary (Delaware)-
Barack Obama- 60%
Bernie Sanders- 36%
Undecided- 4%

Democratic Primary (Maryland)-
Barack Obama- 55%
Bernie Sanders- 40%
Undecided- 5%

Democratic Primary (Pennsylvania)-
Barack Obama- 47%
Bernie Sanders- 46%
Undecided- 7%

Democratic Primary (Rhode Island )-
Barack Obama- 48%
Bernie Sanders- 48%
Undecided- 4%

Hoping for a Sanders upset but this is looking close to being a Obama v Trump race.

April 9th, 2016

Sanders wins Wyoming; candidates heavily campaign in New York

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CHEYENNE - Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) won a solid, unsurprising victory in the last state to vote in the Democratic Primaries before New York. He took all age groups and white voters, who were the overwhelming majority of the electorate, by solid margins, and easily coasted to the win. This is yet another example that shows his strength in ruraly, predominantly white areas.

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Democratic Wyoming Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 61.7% (9 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 38.3% (5 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

However, the caucuses in the Equality State aren't expected to have too big of an effect on the much-more-important New York Primary ten days later. Something else, though, might.

In an interview conducted with the New York Post and published last Monday, Senator Sanders massively inflated the number of casualities infliced by Israeli forces on the Palestinian population in Gaza last summer. While Sanders claimed that the number is 10,000, acknowledging that he doesn't know the exact figures but maintaining his position that the number is "over 10,000" even when he was told that the estimation was "probably high".

This number is far more than even the Hamas health authorities claim, and Jewish leaders are furious over it, accusing Sanders of "believing to antisemitic lies meant to deligitimize the existence of the Jewish State", as one New York Rabbi put it. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), a known supporter of Israel, critisized Sanders for "pandering to anti-Israeli activists" and "just not telling the truth". Sources inside the Sanders campaign are worrying that this criticism might hurt their candidate in New York, where a good chunk of the Democratic electorate is Jewish, but nonetheless, both candidates are continuing to campaign in the state with surrogates and family.

()
President Obama campaigns with Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in Bronx

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Senator Sanders campaigns in New York with the city's famous landscape in his back

April 14, 2016

Democrats hold final debate in Brooklyn, New York; trade, foreign policy most contentious issues

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NEW YORK CITY - The two Democratic contenders, Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders, met tonight for their tenth and final debate in Brooklyn. It was a fiery debate, and an important one too- both candidates needed to stay afloat and potentially get a breakthrough before the New York Primary, where polling has been tight. Both succeeded in the former, but failed in the latter- while they had many contentious exchanges, Obama and Sanders couldn't topple their opponent.

Many issues were debated tonight. While the candidates mostly agreed on campaign finance reform, tax reform, healthcare and immigration, they differed greatly on trade and foreign policy. Let's look at two of the more contentious parts of the debate:

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Bernie Sanders: "This trade agreement, the TPP and the TTIP which the President plans to succeed it, is disastrous, hurts the middle class and I cannot support it. As President, I will immediately withdraw from this agreement and review NAFTA, as well. It's time for fair trade!"
Barack Obama: "This is just populist rhetoric, Senator. There are many safeguards to this agreement, labour regulations in the signatory countries. It would improve labour conditions there, it would help our economy stay stronger than China's, while you would have us surrender to the Chinese and curl up in a protectionist bubble, something proven again and again as very dangerous, throughout history."

()
Wolf Blitzer: "So why did you give the wrong figures, Senator? These numbers, they were widely reported and are easily discoverable. Why did you inflate it so much?"
Bernie Sanders: "Look, I apologize for getting the numbers wrong, but it doesn't change the principle point I was trying to make- apartment houses were leveled, I think hospitals were bombed... I do believe and I don’t think I’m alone in believing that Israel’s force was more indiscriminate than it should have been."
Barack Obama: "First of all, Senator, you didn't just inflate the numbers here- you inflated them massively, almost ridiculously. Palestinian figures cited by the Human Rights Council say, if I remember correctly, that close to 1,500 civillians were killed during that operation. Israeli numbers, meanwhile - and, um, while I don't know which numbers are correct, I do tend to believe our Israeli allies, who provide intelligence worth many American lives - Israeli numbers claim that more than half of those killed were combatants. And look, while I see what the Senator is trying to say, and I agree that civilian casualties are extremely unfourtunate and should be avoided, the matter is far more complicated than he makes it out to be- Hamas is using hospitals and apartments as human shields, for example. So, the whole way Senator Sanders is speaking about this issue, it makes me think that he just doesn't have the experience in foreign policy, the understanding. And while I find it amusing that I'd accuse a Senator older than me by about twenty years of inexperience, it just doesn't seem like foreign policy, something of great importance for a President, is in his interest."

()
Barack Obama: "NATO is very important for keeping the world peaceful and balanced and for our interests, Wolf. I'd definitely stay in, and even work to expand NATO, because this is an organization that stops dangerous, expansionist regimes very effectively. The Senator's rhetoric on the topic has been very reminiscint of Donald Trump's, and I really do wonder if there's a difference between their plans, and lack thereof, on the issue."
Bernie Sanders: "Well, you got to ask - you got to ask Trump. All I can tell you is, with a huge deficit, with 47 million people living in poverty, with our inner cities collapsing, yeah, I do think countries like Germany and U.K. and France and European countries whose economy, or at least its standard of living and health care and education, they’re doing pretty well. So I would not be embarrassed as president of the United States to say to our European allies, you know what, the United States of America cannot just support your economies. You got to put up your own fair share of the defense burden. Nothing wrong with that."

Who won the 10th and final Democratic debate?
Barack Obama- 54%
Bernie Sanders- 35%
Unsure- 11%

Democratic Primary (National)-
Barack Obama- 60% () (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 36% () (-1)
Undecided- 4% () (+-0)

Democratic Primary (New York)-
Barack Obama- 52% () (+2)
Bernie Sanders- 45% () (-1)
Undecided- 3% () (-1)

Democratic Primary (Connecticut)-
Barack Obama- 52% () (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 43% () (+1)
Undecided- 5% () (-2)

Democratic Primary (Delaware)-
Barack Obama- 63% () (+3)
Bernie Sanders- 33% () (-3)
Undecided- 4% () (+-0)

Democratic Primary (Maryland)-
Barack Obama- 55% () (+-0)
Bernie Sanders- 41% () (+1)
Undecided- 4% () (-1)

Democratic Primary (Pennsylvania)-
Barack Obama- 48% () (+1)
Bernie Sanders- 46% () (+-0)
Undecided- 6% () (-1)

Democratic Primary (Rhode Island )-
Barack Obama- 48% () (+-0)
Bernie Sanders- 48% () (+-0)
Undecided- 4% () (+-0)

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 56% () (+-0)
Donald Trump- 34% () (+1)
Other/Undecided- 10% () (-1)
OBAMA +22

Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump (General)
Bernie Sanders- 54% () (+1)
Donald Trump- 35% () (+1)
Other/Undecided- 11% () (-2)
SANDERS +19

April 19th, 2016

Obama wins New York Primary; Sanders Campaign on the ropes

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NEW YORK CITY - The Sanders campaign hoped for a different result here tonight, but it did not come to pass. President Barack Obama, carried by a strong popularity in the state and armed with the endorsements of its two Senators, its Governor and the mayor of its biggest City, won the state of New York by a solid margin, nearly in the double digits.

Indeed, the President's victory speech before a large crowd in his campaign's NYC headquarters almost sounded like a proclamation of victory in the primaries. He did not even mention Sanders' name, save for one time when he thanked him for "running a spirited campaign", and focused mainly on the Republicans. In one part of the speech, which went immediately viral, Obama jabbed Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, quirking that "Donald Trump thinks New Yorkers will support him because he was born here, but I'm gonna need to see a birth certificate to believe that". The birther movement that Trump lead, considered racist by many, is expected to be a main line of attack for the Obama campaign in the general election, assuming both frontrunners do win their party's nomination.

Though there was a frevour of rumours that Sanders would drop out of the race after New York was called for Obama a mere twenty minutes after poll closing time, he did not do it in the end. The Independent Senator spoke to a disappointed but still enthusiastic crowd of supporters, promising that "this is not the end" and that "we will continue fighting for a political revolution because the survival of the American working class depends on it". Nonetheless, the Sanders campaign is considered on the ropes- fundraising is growing alarmingly weaker, and according to inside sources, the northeastern primaries next week are considered make-or-break. If Sanders is unable to do well then, the sources claim, the Sanders campaign will transfer from a campaign intending to win into a protest candidacy, attempting to take as many delegates as possible in favourable states such as West Virginia or Kentucky.

As expected, the split between Obama and Sanders almost looked like a Democrat VS Republican map. Obama won big margins in the five boroughs of New York, save for Staten Island, which Sanders won, and in Long Island. Meanwhile, Sanders did very well in upstate, rural counties, winning most of them. Once again, minorities propelled the President to victory, as Sanders won 51-46 among whites and Obama won 90-9 and 61-36 among black and latino voters respectively. Once again, Sanders won narrowly among white voters while Obama took the rest. Sanders also swept independents 76-24, while Obama easily won those who identified as Democrats 64-34. Let's look at the results:

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Democratic New York Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 52.0% (138 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 41.5% (109 pledged delegates)
Hillary Clinton- 6.3% (0 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.2% (0 pledged delegates)

NY was a closed primary where only Registered Democrats were allowed to vote, so shouldn't Obama's margin among Registered Democrats be the exact same as his margin statewide?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Democratic_primary,_2016
I was going by that article, where it said that Sanders won independents overwhelmingly, and that they were 14% of the electorate. Is it wrong?
EDIT: I guess that the problem is in the 'registered' part. Edited, thanks for pointing it out! Is it good now?

April 26th, 2016

Obama triumphs in all five northeastern contents, ending hopes for a Sanders victory

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PHILADELPHIA - In what probably represents the final blow to the insurgent Sanders campaign, President Obama sweeped all five northeastern contests today, earning large margins in most of them. The only hope for the Vermont Senator was to win strong victories in Pennsylvannia and Rhode Island, but it did not come to pass. Clearly, Obama's popularity was just too high in these states, and it did not harm that Vice President Biden campaigned with him in states like Delaware and Pennsylvannia.

While the President proclaimed victory in the primaries, calling for Sanders to drop out and saying that "it's time to unite and face the Republicans as a strong, progressive force", it seemed like the Independent insurgent Senator still has other plans. In his speech, Sanders conceded that there was "probably" no chance to him to win the nomination, but urged his supporters in the next states to come out and vote for him, because "we can only influence the Democratic Party's platform by coming to the convention as a strong force".

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Democratic Connecticut Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 55.9% (31 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 43.6% (24 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.5% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Delaware Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 70.7% (15 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 29.0% (6 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.3% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Maryland Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 64.6% (62 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 33.9% (33 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.5% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Pennsylvannia Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 53.1% (101 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 46.2% (88 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente- 0.7% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Rhode Island Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.9% (13 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 48.0% (11 pledged delegates)
Others- 2.1% (0 pledged delegates)

And finally, let's observe the current state of the Democratic race:

Democratic Primaries
()
American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad

Barack Obama- 1609 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders- 1116 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton- 312 pledged delegates
Others- 0 pledged delegates

That's referring to political ideology, not party registration. So, for example, Chris Wallace is a registered Democrat and could vote in the NY Democratic primary, even though he describes himself an an independent. Had he voted in the NY Democratic Primary, he would be listed as one of the 14% that are independents, even though he is a registered Democrat.
EDIT: Nevermind. You fixed it.

May 4th, 2016

Obama, Trump win Indiana; Cruz and Kasich suspend campaigns, ending GOP primary

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INDIANAPOLIS - As the primary contests come down from the northeast to the final states to vote, it seems like they're coming to an end, leaving states in Applachia and the West Coast little say in who will be the nominee of each major party.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump defeated Ted Cruz and John Kasich in what was considered their last chance to turn the race around. As a response, both dropped out of the race, first the Texas Senator and then the Ohio Governor. With that, Trump, the business mogul and reality TV star who stunned the Republican establishment by winning the primaries on a populist message, becomes the presumptive nominee of the Republican party. However, it's not looking very good for him or for the Grand Old Party- President Obama, the Democratic frontrunner, is leading Trump by huge margins according to the polls, and his approvals seem to be ticking up every day, currently in the mid-fifties.

With these numbers, the Trump campaign is facing a worrying obstacle- choosing a Vice Presidential nominee. According to inside sources, this process is turning out to be surprisingly hard, as key GOP officeholders signal their unwillingness to join a ticket with Mr. Trump and be associated with his, as some called it "dead on arrival" campaign.

Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, seems to be losing steam with every passing day. He lost Indiana, a state where he was favoured, and more and more Democratic officials are pressing him to suspend his campaign and let the President concentrate on the general election. Sanders, though, said that "it was always about sending a message" and seemed ardent on contuining at least until the June 7th primaries.

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Democratic Indiana Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 54.9% (46 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 45.1% (37 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

But with the Democratic primaries practically decided, the eyes are turning towards the party's Vice Presidential nomination. Most expected Vice President Biden to continue on Obama's ticket, being a good friend and a popular politician, but when asked about the matter on a recent interview, Biden said "we'll see", and when asked to elaborate, said that "it might be time to have a fresh face on the ticket, someone to represent the next generation of Democratic politicians. We'll see." Indeed, rumours are swirling that Obama and Biden are contemplating changing the composition of the ticket, and Press Secretary Josh Earnest claimed that "this is entirely Vice Presidnet Biden's choice" and that "the President is ready to run on the same ticket if his friend wishes the same".

Amazing developments! Is Biden staying on?

He might... Or he might not. I'm actually thinking about making this a (non-binding) poll, when the shortlists start leaking.

June 7th, 2016

Obama triumphs in last Democratic contests; Trump struggles in finding a running mate

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SACRAMENTO - The Democratic primaries reached their final stages with the June 7th contests in some of the biggest states in the union. President Barack Obama, already the presumptive nominee for all intents and purposes, won a large triumph in most states, including the most delegate-rich ones. With that final blow, the President's challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders, is expected to withdraw from the race very soon.

With the primary season over, the general election between incumbent President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Donald Trump is starting to heat up, and polling is looking bleak for the business mogul. He's losing to the President by double digits, his personal approval is the worst of any major party nominee ever, and after a bruising primary against Ted Cruz and John Kasich, both of whom still didn't endorse him, Trump is finding it hard to unite the Republican base. Rumours continue to swirl that major Republican office holders are consistently refusing to take the Vice Presidential nomination.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama seems to be quickly uniting the party- his approval ratings are on the sunny side of 50% and among Sanders voters they're north of 80%, and rising- and with the Independent Vermont Senator set to endorse him soon, they're only expected to rise. The rumours that Joe Biden might withdraw from the Vice Presidential spot continue, and Democratic office holders are jockeying to run with the popular incumbent President.

Let's look at the results, including from some states who voted before today, in order to see how the Democratic race unfolded over the weeks after the blow dealt to Sanders by Indiana voters.

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Democratic Guam Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 66.3% (5 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 33.7% (2 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic West Virginia Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 54.9% (17 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 40.1% (12 pledged delegates)
Others- 5.0% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Kentucky Primary results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 49.4% (29 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 46.4% (26 pledged delegates)
Others- 4.2% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Oregon Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.5% (31 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 49.1% (30 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.4% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Virgin Islands Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 91.6% (6 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 8.4% (1 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Puerto Rico Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 64.8% (39 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 35.0% (21 pledged delegates)
Rocky De La Fuente- 0.2% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic California Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 58.8% (282 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 40.1% (193 pledged delegates)
Others- 1.1% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic Montana Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 49.1% (11 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 48.3% (10 pledged delegates)
Others- 2.6% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic New Jersey Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 67.6% (85 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 32.4% (41 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic New Mexico Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 58.3% (20 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 41.7% (14 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic North Dakota Caucuses results, 100% counted:
Bernie Sanders- 53.5% (11 pledged delegates) ✓
Barack Obama- 41.9% (7 pledged delegates)
Others- 4.6% (0 pledged delegates)

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Democratic South Dakota Primary results, 100% counted:
Barack Obama- 52.4% (11 pledged delegates) ✓
Bernie Sanders- 47.6% (9 pledged delegates)
Others- 0.0% (0 pledged delegates)

"Look at this, Barack." David approached him with a smile, holding his smartphone. "These numbers are amazing."

He held out the phone, and the President saw that it was a private poll conducted for his campaign by PPP in Arizona. At first, he thought that the lack of sleep was finally getting to him and rubbed his eyes. Obama 50%, Trump 47%, Johnson 3%... He looked at David incredulously. "This is a Republican state!"

The campaign strategist nodded excitedly. "Indeed. And we think that Georgia might be within reach as well... Trump is truly a gift, Barack. But we shouldn't release this poll yet, I think, lest the media gets too excited. This can cause a counter-effect, Republicans will keep hearing 'the Democrats are winning Arizona' and rethink it."

"A gift?" A new, pleasant voice joined the conversation, and Michelle approached them. "No, not at all, David. I know polls are saying that it's easier to defeat him, but I'm worried... this guy is nasty." She put a hand on Barack's shoulder. "Come. Bernie is reaching the point."

They approached the edge of the backstage and looked at the stage before it. Senator Sanders had his back to them, standing behind the podium and speaking in his loud, grumbly voice to a huge crowd of thousands.

()

The President hugged Michelle. "Good luck," she whispered, "show them you're with them."
He felt his legs moving as he walked towards the stage with a wide smile and hugged his former rival. Barack approached the podium and looked at the huge crowd of Sanders supporters. "I want to thank my friend, Senator Sanders, for this very important endorsement..."

---

June 9th, 2016

Bernie Sanders suspends his campaign, gives rousing endorsement of Obama

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CLEVELAND - In a big, crowded rally held in Cleveland, Ohio, Independent Senator Bernie Sanders finally suspended his campaign for President. In the same breath, Sanders conceded the race to the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, Barack Obama, and gave an enthusiastic, rousing endorsement of him.

Obama appeared in the rally, which consisted mostly of Sanders supporters, and accepted the endorsement, laying his case before the Independent Senator's supporters. Noteably, Obama pledged to fight Citizens United and make sure that "disastrous decision" is repealed. He also endorsed universal healthcare, though he did not specifically mention a single-payer system, and spoke out on an issue that aliented Sanders supporters from him- Standing Rock. Obama said that "we will reach a just solution for both the locals and American energy independence, and soon."

This came a day after he was endorsed by a different former rival, Secretary Hillary Clinton, in another big rally held in Richmond, Virginia, and it looks like Obama's third campaign is starting on a very high note, especially compared to the bleak start of the Trump campaign.

June 15th, 2016

FINAL RESULTS FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES:

Democratic Primaries
()
American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad

Barack Obama- 51.6%, 2210 pledged delegates, 698 super delegates, total: 2908 delegates ✓
Bernie Sanders- 31.8%, 1531 pledged delegates, 11 super delegates, total: 1542 delegates
Hillary Clinton- 12.4%, 312 pledged delegates, 1 super delegate, total: 313 pledged delegates
Others- 4.2%, 0 delegates

()

What would be Trump's reaction? Possibly this: :P

@realdonaldtrump
Democrat Party just nominated FAILED @POTUS again. I will win election big league. Enthusiasm is on our side- O is WEAK on trade, ISIS, jobs, healthcare, border etc


@realdonaldtrump
Crazy Bernie just lukewarm endorsed FAILED @POTUS. Lots of his supporters will vote TRUMP b/c they want great trade deals. China & others won't rip us off much longer!


@realdonaldtrump
Election should be cancelled & given to Trump since O released a FAKE birth certificate. Shouldn't even be allowed to run!

Well, I was planning to make one, but since I couldn't possibly do it better... :P Here:

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And a little bonus:

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SOMEONE GET SOME WATER! SHE'S ON FIRE!

SPECIAL: THE 2004 GENERAL ELECTION

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After the conventions concluded for both parties, the 2004 general election campaign finally begun. It was a contentious affair, with Bush still retaining some popularity from his handling of 9/11 and the Democrats running with a strong message against the Iraq war, championed by the Gore/Dean ticket. Polls were tight all the way through, showing the candidates neck-in-neck, with Gore leading some polls and Bush leading others. However, the Iraq war was growing unpopular, with reports throughout election season that the country did not, in fact, had weapons of mass destruction troubling the Bush campaign.

And indeed, at first, it seemed like the Gore campaign was doing well. He forcefully countered the dirty campaigning of Karl Rove by hammering Bush on the Iraq War and the economy, earning a narrow lead in the polls throughout September.

()

In the first debate, which was focused on domestic policy but strayed to the Iraq War and the War on Terror, Al Gore managed to win decisively, appealing to working class voters by promising to "put medicaid in a lockbox" and to anti-war voters by, once again, forcefully attacking Bush's handling of the Iraq War. In the Vice Presidential debate, Dean was considered the winner as well, with Cheney appearig too bland and cold near Dean's charisma and passionate opposition to the war. For a while, polls showed leads as large as 5% for Gore, and his forceful campaigning bore fruit.

But it was, perhaps, too forceful.

()

The second Presidential debate, in a townhall format, was when Bush tried to make his comeback- and he succeeded. The President joked and appeared charismatic and connected to people, while the former Vice President looked tense and, at times, angry. The most famous point in the debate was when Gore seemed to intimidate Bush, walking behind him threateningly. This did not resount well with voters, who started to get sick of negative, forceful campaigning: polls showed that more than 60% of voters were very insatisfied with the way the campaign was handled, and, ironically, Gore was the one who was blamed the most for it, despite Karl Rove's famously dirty campaigning.

Bush won the second debate decisively and quickly closed the gap in the polls, especially with the economy appearing in a strong shape. In the third debate, focused on foreign policy, Bush performed surprisingly well despite the unfavourable topic- he made a fairly eloquant defence of the Iraq War and turn the negative attention to Gore- joking about the Vice President's "canned lines" after Gore repeated the 'lockbox' line from the first debate.

In the end, when election day dawned on America, Bush managed to close the gap with Gore and was leading many of the polls. It was to be a tight election, but the Democrats were increasingly pessimistic, and bitterness about the big victory they thought to get back in September slipping off their hands was already spreading. The results did not surprise many:

()

It wasn't a landslide, there weren't any upsets. Most states voted like the polls predicted, with a few noteable exceptions- New Mexico went stronger for Bush than expected, Missouri was tighter than initially thought and Gore won bigger margins in Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Michigan than the polls predicted. Ohio was the tightest state, with Bush winning 49.6-49.4, and many Democrats urged Gore to contest the state, as it would've given him the victory. But Gore declined to do so, citing Bush's 2-point popular vote victory and saying that he did not want to defy the will of the people (in what seemed like a jab to the incumbent President, considering Bush won the 2000 election while losing the popular vote to President Bill Clinton).

Bush won another term, but considering what happened in 2008, some Democrats, with hindsight, are thankful.

()

June 18th, 2016

2016 DEMOCRATIC VEEPSTAKES, part 1: Leaked shortlists show Obama contemplating a Biden replacement

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - As the nominating processes for both major parties finally come to an end and the general election heats up, the next, and perhaps most important step for the two nominees looms closer: choosing a running mate.

Most observers wrote off the Democratic veepstakes and assumed that Biden, a good personal friend of the President and a very popular politician, would remain on as Obama's running mate. But as rumours are increasingly swirling that Biden is contemplating an exit and might not seek reelection as Vice President, the eyes are turning towards the Obama campaign's running mate shortlists. Two days ago, a fairly large shortlist was leaked to the Washington Post featuring the President's options for VP, and it has some interesting names. It appears like Barack Obama is angling for a young, dynamic running mate who'd contemplate him and rally the Democratic base. Let's look at these names, as well as some names which didn't appear, but are rumoured to be very much in contention:

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Name: Joe Robinette Biden Jr.
Age: 73
Past jobs: U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973-2009), Vice President of the United States (2009-)
Why is he being considered: Biden is a good friend of Obama, a running mate by all meanings of the phrase, and, if he himself makes the decision to seek reelection as Vice President, is considered certain to be chosen as the President's running mate again. Holding high approval ratings and immense popularity with the electorate, the only thing that stops Biden from running with Obama again is his own personal decision.

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Name: Elizabeth Ann Warren
Age: 67
Past jobs: Special advisor for the CFPB (2010-2011), U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013-)
Why is she being considered: Warren was the champion of the firebrand progressive wing in the Democratic party before Bernie Sanders even jumped into the race. In fact, for a long while, she was urged by progressives to make a run for the Democratic nomination, and only after she refused, Bernie Sanders entered the race. Though some Sanders supporters spite her for not endorsing the Independent Senator, Warren is still beloved by the party's progressive wing, and seems to have all that Sanders himself lacks as a potential running mate for Obama- relative youth and the diversity of a woman. But some among Obama's circle fear that she's still too old, and that she might alienate independents, making her a strong but clearly not certain contender in the veepstakes.

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Name: Timothy Michael Kaine
Age: 58
Past jobs: Member of the Richmond City Council (1994-2001), Mayor of Richmond (1998-2001), Lieutenant Governor of Virginia (2002-2006), Governor of Virginia (2006-2010), Chairman of the DNC (2009-2011), U.S. Senator from Virginia (2013-)
Why is he being considered: With his very impressive resume and relative youth, Tim Kaine was in Obama's shortlist way back in 2008, and now, with the experience of a U.S. Senator, seems even more attractive- he's likeable and moderate, compliments Obama's energy with calm stability, and his experience would make him an undoubtedly competent advisor. But is he too "bland and boring", as some pundits claimed, and too disliked by the progressive wing of the party?

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Name: Cory Anthony Booker
Age: 47
Past jobs: Member of the Newark City Council (1998-2002), Mayor of Newark (2006-2013), U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-)
Why is he being considered: Booker reminds many of Barack Obama- he's young, African American and charismatic. Stories of his folksy courage and charitable tedency as Mayor made him hyped up as a potential Presidential contender, but recently, connections to Wall Street seem to be bogging him down with the Bernie wing. Is he too similar to Obama for comfort, and too connected to Wall Street, or is he the man to choose?

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Name: Julián Castro
Age: 42
Past jobs: Mayor of San Antonio (2009-2014), Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014-)
Why is he being considered: Young, charismatic and Hispanic, Castro has been hyped up as the future of the Democratic Party. His appeal as a running mate could be increased margins with the Hispanic community, which would put states like Florida and Arizona in a more favourable position for Democrats, but some are claiming that he's just another "empty suit".

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Name: Thomas James Vilsack
Age: 65
Past jobs: Mayor of Mount Pleasant (1987-1992), Member of the Iowa Senate (1993-1999), Governor of Iowa (1999-2007), Secretary of Agriculture (2009-)
Why is he being considered: With his folksy demeanor, home advantage in the swingstate of Iowa and popularity with rural voters, Tom Vilsack, a loyal Obama ally, is considered an interesting choice that could appeal to voters Obama was struggling with. But some consider him too boring, and a man of the past.

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Name: Amy Jean Klobucher
Age: 56
Past jobs: County Attorney of Hennepin County (1999-2007), U.S. Senator
from Minnesota (2007-)
Why is she being considered: With the added historical advantage of a woman on the ticket and her immense popularity with voters in her homestate, Klobucher could be an interesting choice that appeals to both working class voters and female voters. But some see her as too bland and boring.

June 18th, 2016

2016 DEMOCRATIC VEEPSTAKES, part 2

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Name: Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand
Age: 49
Past jobs: Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 20th district (2007-2009), U.S. Senator from New York (2009-)
Why is she being considered: Hillary Clinton's replacement in the Senate, Gillibrand is energetic, young and dynamic, and if the President wants a woman as his running mate, she could cover the minuses of Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobucher. But will her past as a blue dog hurt her chances?

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Name: Sherrod Campbell Brown
Age: 64
Past jobs: Member of the Ohio House of Representatives from the 61st district (1975-1983), Secretary of State of Ohio (1983-1991), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Ohio's 13th district (1993-2007), U.S. Senator from Ohio (2007-)
Why is he being considered: With his folksy demeanor, rough voice and populist stances, Brown is a very attractive choice- he'd put the crucial swing state of Ohio in favourable territory for the President, earn support from working class voters, consolidate the progressive wing and compliment Obama's pluses with his own. But as he will be replaced in the Senate with a Republican chosen by John Kasich, is it worth it?

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Name: Eric Michael Garcetti
Age: 45
Past jobs: Member of the Los Angeles City Council from the 13th district (2001-2013), Mayor of Los Angeles (2013-)
Why is he being considered: Young, Jewish and Mexican American, Garcetti seems to check many boxes for President Obama. With his charisma and energy, he could energize many voters and grow up to be a strong heir for the President. But will his lack of experience and similarity to Obama hurt his chances?

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Name: Alan Stuart "Al" Franken
Age: 65
Past jobs: U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2009-)
Why is he being considered: With the strong charisma of a former SNL writer and the popularity with working class voters of a Minnesota Senator, Franken is considered a dark horse choice for the President. While he wouldn't add the female advantage of his fellow Senator, Klobucher, he could be more charismatic than her and would be replaced in the Senate by a Democrat. Will Obama go for Franken?

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Name: Jeff Alan Merkley
Age: 60
Past jobs: Member of the Oregon House of Representatives from the 47th district (1999-2009), U.S. Senator from Oregon (2009-)
Why is he being considered: Another darkhorse option, Merkley is the only Senator to endorse Bernie Sanders, and as such, could be an attractive choice to consolidate the progressive wing. He also hails from a rural part of Oregon, and could attract rural voters. But the fact that he did not endorse the President in the primary could be problematic for their working relationship.

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Name: Melinda Ann Gates
Age: 52
Past jobs: Co-founder of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Why is he being considered: An interesting name revealed by the Obama shortlists, and the only non-politician to appear there, the philantropist and wife of Bill Gates is a popular and powerful woman, and could appeal to female voters and independents. But will she alienate the progressive wing?

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Name: Bernard "Bernie" Sanders
Age: 75
Past jobs: Mayor of Burlington (1981-1989), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Vermont's at-large district (1991-2007), U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007-)
Why is he being considered: While strangely absent from the shortlists, Sanders' strong performance in the Democratic primary inevitably makes him part of the speculations. He would certainly consolidate the progressive wing, but could he be too old, and too alienating to moderate voters, to be chosen?

Other possible names: Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), Secretary Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Representative Tim Ryan (D-OH), Secretary Tom Perez (D-MD), Admiral James Stavridis (D-FL), Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL)

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I'm planning to make this a (non-binding) referendum to see who the people want as running mates when I present the Trump list (which will likely be shorter than the Obama one) :) But until then, do tell me your opinions- who would you like to see as Obama's next VP nominee?

Obama/Merkley or Obama/Sanders 2016!

Bite the bullet and go with Cory Brooker

June 21st, 2016

2016 REPUBLICAN VEEPSTAKES, part 1: Trump struggling to convince popular Republicans that he can win

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - Donald Trump has a problem. A big problem. Polls are showing him trailing President Obama anywhere between 10 and 20 points, with the incumbent President being popular with the electorate and the business mogul increasingly toxic thanks to his rhetoric. As a result, many Republican officeholders are, according to various sources, refusing to be considered for his running mate. Some have done so publicly- Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) recently said that he will "not be Donald Trump's running mate", and Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) stated that she wishes to "focus" on her job as Senator and dropped out of consideration, after a chatter of rumours claimed that she was the leading candidate.

But others have done so less publicly, telling associates that they won't accept an offer to be Trump's Vice Presidential nominee, and this is turning into a problem for the Republican nominee... he just can't find a running mate. The names on various leaked shortlists reflect this- they include a heavy number of Trump loyalists and radical politicians from red states who would find it hard to appeal to the general electorate or help the Republicans in any key swing states. Let's look at these names and try to understand who could become Donald Trump's Vice Presidential nominee:

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Name: Newton Leroy Gingrich
Age: 73
Past jobs: Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Georgia's 6th district (1979-1999), Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (1995-1999)
Why is he being considered: The leader of the 1994 Republican Revolution and a failed 2012 candidate, Gingrich did not endorse Trump in the primary but recently started to defend him. Outspoken and sharp, he's considered popular among conservatives and could help Trump to consolidate him, but could an old, 70+ white man be too similar to Trump for comfort?

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Name: Benjamin Solomon Carson Sr.
Age: 65
Past jobs: Famous neurosurgeon and author
Why is he being considered: One of the early endorsers of Donald Trump and popular amongst conservatives, Ben Carson could be an attractive choice for Trump that would consolidate the Republican base and redouble on his outsider appeal. But Carson proved to be a sleepy campaigner, and his lack of experience, coupled with Trump's own lack of experience, could prove a problem.

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Name: John Richard Kasich
Age: 64
Past jobs: Member of the Ohio Senate from the 15th district (1979-1983), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Ohio's 12th district (1983-2001), Governor of Ohio (2011-)
Why is he being considered: As a source inside the Trump campaign said, "John Kasich is the perfect running mate". Moderate, likeable, with a good record as Governor and Chairman of the House Budget Committee, and very popular, Kasich could brandish Trump's credibility considerably and add to his economic message. But there is one problem- Kasich seems very likely to refuse. Sources close to the Ohio Governor claim that Trump has already made repeated offers to Kasich, and while he still didn't make it public, he refused again and again. Kasich didn't endorse Trump, and seems to become a bigger critic with every passing day.

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Name: Christopher James Christie
Age: 54
Past jobs: Member of the Morris County Board of Chosen Freeholders (1995-1997), United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey (2002-2008), Governor of New Jersey (2010-)
Why is he being considered: Chris Christie was, not a long time ago, a very attractive choice, and a leading Presidential contender- a moderate, popular Governor of a blue state who won a strong reelection. But the famous bridgegate scandal soured New Jersey and national voters on Christie, and his popularity slipped quickly- he now is one of the least popular governors in the country. Still, his early endorsement of Trump earned him favour with the business mogul, and if other, more popular choices refuse, Christie's experience could be attractive for Trump.

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Name: Sarah Louise Palin
Age: 52
Past jobs: Member of the Wasilla City Council (1992-1996), Mayor of Wasilla (1996-2002), Chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (2003-2004), Governor of Alaska (2006-2009)
Why is she being considered: In short, out of necessity. Trump has few willing options, which include John McCain's 2008 Vice Presidential nominee who has high ambitions and who enthusiastically endorsed Donald Trump. But, already having failed to propel a ticket to victory, it's hard to see what does Sarah Palin have to add, other than redoubling on Trump's brash rhetoric.

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Name: Michael Richard Pence
Age: 57
Past jobs: Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Indiana's 2nd/6th district (2001-2013), Governor of Indiana (2013-)
Why is he being considered: A staunch conservative with experience in both Congress and the Governor's mansion of Indiana, Pence might just be what Trump needs- a calm, experienced man who could sooth the Republican establishment while still appealing to white working class voters. But rumour has it that Pence is considering refusing the job, so it remains to be seen if Trump can have him on the ticket.

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Name: Mary Fallin
Age: 61
Past jobs: Member of the Oklahoma House of Representatives from the 85th district (1990-1995), Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma (1995-2007), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Oklahoma's 5th district (2007-2011), Governor of Oklahoma (2011-)
Why is she being considered: Fallin is a firebrand Tea Party conservative popular with the base, and possibly one of the few who would accept the position of Trump's running mate, but her rhetoric might be too resembling of Sarah Palin and her extreme conservative actions as Governor might alienate moderates.

Obama/Brown , I guess.

June 21st, 2016

2016 REPUBLICAN VEEPSTAKES, part 2

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Name: Scott Phillip Brown
Age: 57
Past jobs: Member of the Massachusetts House of Representatives from the 9th Norfolk district (1998-2004), Member of the Massachusetts Senate from the Norfolk, Bristol and Middlesex district (2004-2010), U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2010-2013)
Why is he being considered: Brown earned nationwide reknown after surprisingly winning the special Senate election to replace Ted Kennedy in the bluest of blue states, Massachusetts. Even after losing the seat to Elizabeth Warren, he remained a Republican star, moderate and appealing to working class voters. But after carpetbagging to New Hampshire and failing to win the Senate race there in 2014, many voters consider him an opportunist. Still, Brown seems like the only moderate option willing to join Trump's ticket, so he could be a strong contender for the job.

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Name: Marsha Blackburn
Age: 64
Past jobs: Member of the Tennessee Senate from the 23rd district (1999-2003), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Tennessee's 7th district (2003-)
Why is she being considered: Once again, out of necessity. Blackburn is considered an extreme conservative like Fallin, and her harsh views could alienate moderates. Still, she seems willing to join the ticket and is a fairly charismatic politician, popular with the Republican base.

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Name: Refael Edward Cruz
Age: 45
Past jobs: Solicitor General of Texas (2003-2008), U.S. Senator from Texas (2013-)
Why is he being considered: Cruz, the runner-up of the Republican primaries, is very popular with a large chunk of the conservative electorate and could attract evangelicals, as well as brandish Trump's outsider appeal. But is he too extreme, and would he even agree to join the ticket after a very dirty campaign between himself and Trump in the primaries? It's noteable that the Texas Senator didn't even endorse Trump yet.

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Name: Marco Antonio Rubio
Age: 45
Past jobs: Member of the Florida House of Representatives from the 111th district (2000-2008), U.S. Senator from Florida (2011-)
Why is he being considered: Despite his lackluster performance in the 2016 primaries, Rubio is still considered a Republican star, and could sooth the Republican establishment, as well as appeal to latino voters, if he joined Trump's ticket. But Rubio and Trump have a very strained past in the primaries, and he signaled an unwillingness to join the ticket. Potentially, he could be the best option after Kasich, but sources close to Rubio say he's contemplating jumping into the Florida Senate race in the last moment and try to seek reelection despite saying he won't.

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Name: Michael Thomas Flynn
Age: 57
Past jobs: Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (2012-2014)
Why is he being considered: Retired General Flynn is a storng supporter of Trump and could strengthen his military credentials, but is a controversial man with controversial statesments. Could he be the wildcard pick for Donald Trump to rebrand himself?

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Name: Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III
Age: 69
Past jobs: United States Attorney for the Southern District of Alabama (1981-1993), Attorney General of Alabama (1995-1997), U.S. Senator from Alabama (1997-)
Why is he being considered: Sessions is an early endorser of Trump- the first Senator to support him. He's an experienced congressman and a staunch conservative who could help unite the base, as well as a strong supporter of Trump's immigation agenda, but will allegations for racism sink him?

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Name: James Henry Webb Jr.
Age: 70
Past jobs: Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs (1984-1987), Secretary of the Navy (1987-1988), U.S. Senator from Virginia (2007-2013)
Why is he being considered: Perhaps the most curious name to emerge from the Republican shortlist is a Democrat, and one who run in the 2016 primary, no less. But it comes as no surprise that Trump finds a kindered spirit in Webb- both are brash and populist, both try to appeal to disaffected white working class voters, both are considered outsiders. Webb refused to endorse anyone after dropping out of the Democratic Primary and even hinted at a third party run, and, when asked, said he "would not vote for Obama" but might vote for Trump. Choosing Webb could strengthen Trump among independents and veterans. However, his views are far too liberal for most Republicans, and he could incite a conservative revolt.

Other possible names: Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM), Senator Cory Gardener (R-CO), Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA), Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Ivanka Trump (R-NY)

Gillibrand, Franken, and Brown are the best options for Obama.

Provided Uncle Joe steps down:

June 29th, 2016

REPUBLICAN VEEPSTAKES - John Kasich takes himself out of VP contention: "I will not run or endorse Donald Trump"; Rubio to remain in Florida Senate race, Pence to run for reelection in Indiana

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NEW YORK CITY - in a recent interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, Ohio Governor and former contender for the Republican nomination John Kasich officially took himself out of contention to become running mate for the party's nominee, Donald Trump. He denounced Trump in surprisingly fiery words, calling him "a danger to the conservative movement" and "a man who to stir to life some very uncomfortable, even racist memories." He also claimed that Trump's campaign manager called him and offered that if he agreed to run with the business mogul, he'd get the responsibility of governing the nation while Trump would "focus on 'Making America Great Again', as ridiculous as this sounds", the Ohio Governor told Tapper.

When asked if he would agree to become Trump's Vice Presidential nominee, after a source in the Trump campaign described him as "perfect", Kasich reaffirmed that he will "not, under any circumstances, run with Donald Trump", and furthermore, that he will not endorse the Republican nominee "who stands against my values and many of this party's values." However, the Ohio Governor refused to support President Obama or say who would he vote for and claimed that he's weighing his options. On a potential conservative third-party challenge, Kasich said that he "might" support such a move, but that he will not run himself.

In similar news, Marco Rubio, who decided, in August, to surprisingly jump into the race for his Senate seat despite promising not to, reaffirmed that he is running for reelection, essentially putting himself out of contention for Trump's second spot as well. And in what was seen as a big blow to the Trump campaign, which, according to various sources, was leaning towards choosing him for running mate, Indiana Governor Mike Pence declared that he ''will run for reelection in 2016", putting away any possibility of running with Trump. The move is attributed to the business mogul's bad polling numbers, with sources close to Pence saying that the Governor "worried about becoming part of a landslide defeat''.

These news narrowed the options considerably for Trump's VP choice. According to sources close to the Republican nominee, he's "angry and bitter" about Kasich's interview and Pence's decision, which causes him to favour a particular option- Jim Webb- as a kick in the face of the Republican establishment. The same sources claim that Ted Cruz and Sarah Palin are out of contention, leaving only a scarce few options for Trump, none of them particularly appealing- Carson, Christie, Gingrich, Fallin, Blackburn, Brown, Flynn, Sessions and Webb.

Trump campaign manager Cory Lewandowski refused to comment on the news, leaving only a short message claiming that "Donald Trump was not seriously considering these options". But the Republican candidate himself did comment:

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July 3rd, 2016

Sanders "won't be a running mate", prefers focus on Senate; Brown, Booker reportedly out of contention for next Obama VP

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - Ending any speculations that President Obama is planning to choose him as running mate in order t o consolidate the Democratic base, Vermont Senator and Democratic runner-up Bernie Sanders announced in an interview that he will "not be a running mate", prefering to focus on "helping the President move progressive agenda in the Senate, and keeping him accountable". This preludes a possible struggle between Sanders and Obama on trade, healthcare and other issues if the President wins reelection for a third term.

The Democratic veepstakes narrowed further this week as credible sources inside the Obama campaign reported to the press that two Senators from states with Republican Governors, Sherrod Brown and Cory Booker, are out of contention. While Booker had a slim chance to be chosen, given his similarity to Barack Obama and the disdain in which he's held by Bernie Sanders' supporters, Sherrod Brown was considered a very attractive option, supported by many Democrats. But apparently, with the Senate uncertain in 2016 and, even more so, in 2018, the Obama campaign decided that the prospect of losing a Senate seat to the Republicans is not worth it.

Rumours continue to swirl that Biden will withdraw from the ticket- his son, Hunter Biden, has recently said that his father was "contemplating the matter" and that even hinting that the Vice President is supportive of "presenting a fresh face". Sources close to Biden claim that he will be making his decision in the coming days.

Wow, I didn't know that good timelines were still produced! The real mystery, I suppose, is if Bush himself is short-sighted enough to seek a third term in 2008, and if so, whether the GOP is even willing to accept it.

I imagine Hillary's alleged electability was harmed, regardless of whether or not she ran against an incumbent President, owing to the fact that the most recent general election featuring the Clintons was a loss.

Great timeline!

I like the presentation of potential running mates (I'll consider that for my own TL). Just a minor correction: Flynn wasn't 70 in 2016 ;)

July 4th, 2016


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WASHINGTON, D.C. - Making his decision official in a White House press conference on the 4th of July, Vice President Joe Biden, joined by President Barack Obama and his wife Jill Biden, announced that he will not run for another term as Vice President. In a bittersweet message, Biden said that "it's time for a fresh face to join our President on the ticket" and that "it's time for a new generation of progressive leaders to rise". Biden thanked Obama and the American people from the bottom of his heart for the "tremendous honour of serving as your Vice President".

Still very popular with the public, Biden promised to work hard and campaign with his friend to "give Barack four more years to do his wonderful work", and did not rule out a potential role in the next Obama administration. The Republican candidate, of course, was quick to reply:

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With that, the veepstakes on the Democratic side became much more contentious, with various strong candidates all being considered for the spot. As Donald Trump struggles to find his own running mate, many eyes are now turned towards the Democratic nominee, the incumbent President, and recent reports indicate that the vetting process for a few of the candidates is already underway. Some of these candidates are rumoured to be Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Senator Al Franken (D-MN) and Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO), whose name recently rose up as a strong potential running mate, despite objections from some in the left.

Another important piece of news came yesterday, as Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) ruled out joining President Obama's ticket, saying that "my work is in the Senate". Various sources claim that the reason for this was the Obama campaign signaling to her that she won't be chosen. Two other names which are reportedly out of contention are Melinda Gates, who is, according to sources inside the Obama campaign, too much to stomach for the Sanders wing of the party, and LA Mayor Eric Garcetti who was reportedly urged by Obama allies to run for office in 2018. Instead, two different names are being floated as strong contenders- the afformentioned John Hickenlooper and Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM). Let's examine them briefly:

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Name: John Wright Hickenlooper Jr.
Age: 64
Past jobs: Mayor of Denver (2003-2011), Governor of Colorado (2011-)
Why is he being considered: One of the only Democratic Governors hailing frrm a swing state (although one with polls heavily favouring the President) and a popular one at that, Hickenlooper has a clear appeal- he'd be a non-Senator on the ticket who could claim to be far away from the Washington establishment, and his experience could prove valuable. However, opposition from the left for his moderate positions could harm his chances, and it's unclear how much experience is needed on a ticket with an incumbent President.

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Name: Martin Trevor Heinrich
Age: 45
Past jobs: Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New Mexico's 1st district (2009-2013), U.S. Senator from New Mexico (2013-)
Why is he being considered: Young, folksy, with good looks and hailing from a non-coastal state, Heinrich has an obvious appeal and could compliment President Obama well. But is he too moderate for progressives to stomach?

Thanks! There are actually many great TLs being written rn, mine is not close to being the best of them :P
Also, yeah, the 2008 primary will be covered soon. Hillary is still quite formidable, and starts out as the frontrunner, but there are other formidable contenders ready to jump in- 2004 Vice Presidential nominee Howard Dean and Senator John Kerry, for example.


Thanks, it's a honour! Also, yeah, fixed :)

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Now that we're done with reducing the Vice Presidential lists a bit, it's time for the (non-binding) referendum! :P The chosen candidates will become formidable potential candidates in 2020, so choose wisely, because right now I still have no idea who to choose!
Thos who voter have any suggestions for additional candidates, please do tell me- I'll take them into consideration. And I'd be glad if whoever votes in the poll comments his decision, it'll be nice to hear read some voices. Let the voting begin!

EDIT: I seemed to have made this a one-vote poll, which is quite counter-productive. If anyone knows how to edit a poll, or even just delete it without destroying the post, please do tell!

I'd be done with Heinrich

Trump/Webb!

First time seeing this one but wouldn't Wisconsin have been a better choice in 2000 to give Bush his theoretical 270+?

I wanted to show that Clinton was able to keep the trends at bay for now in 2000 and win Arkansas, keeping Missouri extremely close.

Until this TL I had no idea that Marsha Blackburn was 65 years old.  I thought she was maybe in her mid-50s.

July 6th, 2016

Donald Trump announces surprise pick for running mate- Retired General Mike Flynn

 (-2)
OBAMA +11

July 9th, 2016

Flynn choice causes a firestorm- Russian ties, tenure at DIA scrutinized; conservative third party rumours swirling again

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - He was only chosen as Donald Trump's running mate three days ago, but already, retired General Mike Flynn is knee-deep in mud. Washington Post recently released a photo where Flynn is seated in a RT galla in the same table with Vladimir Putin (and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who also faced backlash), as well as interviews where Flynn is quoted defending the network, which is considered the Kremlin's propaganda arm in the U.S.

Along with his connections to Russia, Flynn's tenure as director of the DIA was also scrutinzied- according to The New York Times, he exhibited a loose relationship with facts, leading his subordinates to refer to Flynn's repeated dubious assertions as "Flynn facts". Vice President Joe Biden claimed in an interview that Flynn was "abusive towards his subordinates" and "just not a good manager", a claim confirmed by President Obama.

The scandals are already causing prominent Republican officials to call for Flynn to be dropped from the not-yet-nominated ticket. Speaker Paul Ryan, who has been withholding his endorsement from Trump, said that "Flynn is a dangerous choice that must be reverted as soon as possible", RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told press that he hopes Trump makes the "right choice" and "takes someone with better experience as his running mate", and 2008 nominee John McCain spoke in a fiery tone about the "disgrace" in Flynn's choice, saying that he "cannot support a nominee who makes such a bad choice."

The backlash increased the whispers about a possible third-party conservative challenger to Obama and Trump. 2012 nominee Mitt Romney said that he would "absolutely support" such a challenger, but that he won't run himself, and Ohio Governor John Kasich echoed Romney's statement, saying that he needs to focus on his job as Governor, but that he would "love it if someone steps up." New polling released today indicates that a challenger could be successful in gaining a large following:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 52%  () (+1)
Donald Trump- 38%  () (-2)
Other/Undecided- 10 % () (+1)
OBAMA +14

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 50%  () (+1)
Donald Trump- 36%  () (-2)
Gary Johnson- 7%  () (+1)
Jill Stein- 1%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 9 % () (+-0)
OBAMA +14

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein vs Conservative Challenger (General)
Barack Obama- 47%  () (-2)
Donald Trump- 31%  () (-8)
Conservative Challenger- 11% () (+11)
Gary Johnson- 4% ()  (-2)
Jill Stein- 1%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 6% () (-2)
OBAMA +16

Martin Heinrich would be a good choice out of this list.

July 10th, 2016

BREAKING: Jon Huntsman declares independent Presidential bid; calls Trump 'a disaster in the making'

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SALT LAKE CITY - For months the rumours have been swirling that a conservative challenger to Donald Trump was going to emerge. Now, it finally did.

Former Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R-UT) announced an independent challenge to Republican nominee Donald Trump and incumbent President Barack Obama in the biggest city of his homestate. Huntsman attacked Trump from both right and left, calling him "not a true conservative" and "a dangerous demagogue." He also called on Republican elected officials to support him, saying that "this is an election about making the moral choice, the right choice" and that he is the only one representing "conservatives who see Trump's protectionism, his disturbing closeness with Russia and his terrible judgement and are frightened."

Speculations already started about Huntsman's running mate- his campaign teased someone with "national prominence", and according to various leaks, some of the options include Colin Powell, Brian Sandoval, Condoleezza Rice, Richard Hanna, Tom Coburn, Ben Sasse and retired Marine Corps General James Mattis. Huntsman, who is already gathering signatures at a fast pace with a prepared infaustracture of activists and donors, is expected to make the choice in the coming days.

The challenge worries many inside the Trump campaign and the RNC, especially as Huntsman has a strong appeal to Mormons, a demographic which, according to the polls, has strong disapproval of the Republican nominee. He also appeals to moderate conservative subarbanites, which might hurt Trump in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Polls conduct after Huntsman's entrance show him doing worse than a generic challenger, but still polling pretty high:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 48%  () (+1)
Donald Trump- 32%  () (+1)
Jon Huntsman- 9%  () (-2)
Gary Johnson- 4%  () (+-0)
Jill Stein- 1%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 6% () (+-0)
OBAMA +16

This prompted RNC chairman Reince Priebus to call for Huntsman to withdraw and to claim that "Huntsman is doing a great disservice to the Conservative movement". And, of course, the Republican nominee responded as expected:

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July 12th, 2016

Trump drops Flynn from ticket after outrage, scrambles to find a new running mate; Obama VP search continues

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NEW YORK CITY - the tumultuous, stormy 2016 campaign continues, as the outcry after Trump chose Mike Flynn as his running mate finally took its toll, with the Republican nominee dropping his choice for running mate from the ticket. The Trump campaign released a short statement saying that "Michael Flynn is no longer the running mate for Donald Trump; we will choose another soon."

The campaign refused to respond to questions about the reasons for Flynn's dismissal, but they're quite clear- he became an albatross that Trump couldn't carry. After Flynn was called a "terrible" DIA director and accused for defending Russia, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman declared an independent Presidential bid and Republican officials pressed Trump to replace Flynn, the Republican nominee badly needed a fresh start for his campaign, and so, succumbed to the pressure.

While the Trump campaign suffers blow after blow and appears to be managed chaotically, the Obama campaign is calmly and quietly working on vetting the various candidates for Vice President. According to sources inside the President's campaign, various figures are out of consideration: Secretary Julián Castro (D-TX), Secretary Tom Vilsack (D-IA), Senator Amy Klobucher (D-MN), Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Senator Al Franken (D-MN), who, noteably, appeared to have been "vetted out" after nearly being chosen.

This leaves the Obama veepstakes much narrower than they were- Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) are the names circulating most shortlists. But in the last days, another name rose to prominence and seems to be strongly considered by the Obama campaign- Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). Let's examine her shortly:

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Name: Tammy Suzanne Green Baldwin
Age: 54
Past jobs: Member of the Wisconsin State Assembly from the 78th district (1993-1999), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Wisconsin's 2nd district (1999-2013), U.S. Senator from Wisconsin (2013-)
Why is she being considered: Baldwin is a lesbian woman who could excite female and lgbtq voters, especially in light of Trump's weakness with them. She's a progressive who's paltable both to the Sanders wing and to the establishment wing of the Democratic party. She hails from a semi-swing state, and she wouldn't necessarily be replaced by a Republican in the Senate, as Wisconsin laws do not allow an interim appointment by the Governor and call for a special election soon after the vacancy. So on the paper, it's not hard to see why is she being considered. But will Obama take the plunge and choose a candidate who could be potentially dangerous, especially in light of recent chaos around Trump's running mate search?

July 15th, 2016

REPORT: Jim Webb says 'no' to Donald Trump VP offer; won't endorse any candidate

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RICHMOND - In an interview with MSNBC, former Senator and Presidential contender Jim Webb (D-VA) shut down speculations that he could be chosen as Donald Trump's running mate, saying that "there is no way I will run on that ticket." Webb continued to affirm that he will "not vote for Donald Trump", and seemed to walk back on previous statements ruling out supporting President Obama by claiming that he's "still weighing his options."

Jim Webb confirmed that he was approached, "various times", by the Trump campaign to join the business mogul's ticket, but that he "turned them down each time." The former Senator seemed to echo, and perhaps confirm, claims previously made by John Kasich that Trump offered his favoured candidates for running mate considerable power by saying that "they basically begged for me to join, and told me that I'll be responsible for most governing duties."

Meanwhile, the rumour mill about the veepstakes in both parties continues- according to various sources, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) won't be Barack Obama's running mate, and the incumbent President's campaign is "heavily contemplating" Senators Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), though Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) are still options.

Donald Trump, at the same time, is reportedly "deeply frustrated" with his VP struggles, after many prominent Republicans refused to run on the same ticket with him, the Flynn choice backfired, and now Jim Webb, a possible wildcard choice Trump had, said "no" as well. There are now claims from credible sources that Trump is zeroing in on Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ), former Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) and Governor Mary Fallin (R-OK).

As his troubles continue, polls are showing that Trump continues polling very badly, and that Jon Huntsman, the independent conservative candidate, is gaining ground:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 51%  () (+2)
Donald Trump- 40%  () (-1)
Other/Undecided- 9% () (-1)
OBAMA +11

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 47%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 31%  () (-1)
Jon Huntsman- 11%  () (+2)
Gary Johnson- 4%  () (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (-1)
Other/Undecided- 7% () (+1)
OBAMA +16

If nothing else I'm just glad Jill Stein got exposed for her Russian ties before the election rather than after it ITTL

July 17th, 2016

BREAKING: Donald Trump announces Christie 'final choice' for running mate

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TRENTON - After the failed Flynn nomination and all the other hardships he had finding a running mate, business mogul and 2016 Republican nominee Donald Trump has finally made his choice. In what seems like a "last option plan", as a source within the RNC called it, Trump announced Governor and former primary rival Chris Christie (R-NJ) as his candidate for Vice President.

In a rally in Trenton, New Jersey where he presented his pick, Trump lauded Christie as "a reformer with experience who knows how to get change through despite opposition from the crooked Democrats", and even went so far to promise that the Governor will "help win this state, and many other states in the northeast tired of the Democrats' failed policies." Christie, in an upbeat speech, praised Trump as "the change we need" and said that he was "proud" to stand behind the Republican nominee.

While Christie has rich experience and was once considered a very popular Governor and strong contender for the Presidency, his popularity sharply declined after the famous Bridgegate scandal, where he allegedly closed a busy bridge for personal reasons of revenge. After this scandal and continuous troubles with the Democratic New Jersey state legislature, as well as his endorsement of Donald Trump, Christie became one of the least popular Governors in the country, with approval ratings below 30%. Thus, no one in the RNC is under the illusion that the choice will give the Republican ticket any chance in New Jersey like Trump claimed, but Chairman Reince Priebus still congratulated Trump for the pick, saying that he hopes "this will bring stability and credibility to the campaign and let us finally send our message to voters." But already, Trump's opponents are jumping on the scandal:

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With the Vice Presidential choice made, the Trump campaign is hastily preparing for the Republican National Convention in Cleveland that will start tomorrow. Many prominent Republicans refused to speak at the convention- including former Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, 2012 and 2008 nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain, and the state's Republican Governor, John Kasich. Still, the Trump campaign is hoping that the RNC will be the start of a turnaround. Already, House Speaker Paul Ryan made a tacit endorsement of Trump, saying that he "will support the Republican nominee", and will speak at the convention. This is the status of the polls after the Christie choice and before the RNC:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 51%  () (+-0)
Donald Trump- 41%  () (+1)
Undecided- 8% () (-1)
OBAMA +10

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 46%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 32%  () (+1)
Jon Huntsman- 11%  () (+-0)
Gary Johnson- 5%  () (+1)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 6% () (-1)
OBAMA +14

Part of me want this election to be decided by the electoral college.

Same. The Flynn twist was spectacular.

Heinrich or Hickenlooper would be great, especially Heinrich tho. Also wouldn't mind a Huntsman/Kasich ticket.

July 18th - July 21st, 2016

The Republican National Convention: Amidst controversy, Trump attempts to unite the Republican Party

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CLEVELAND - The 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio was controversial and bombastic, just like the party's nominee for President. Both Donald Trump and party leaders came to the Forest City with the intention of uniting the party around its nominee and consolidating Republican key voters- conservatives, moderates, and, a new addition by Trump, white working class voters.

But where there is Trump, there is controversy. The problems begun for the RNC even before July 18th, as prominent Republicans, including all living former Presidents and Presidential nominees other than Bob Dole, as well as Ohio Governor John Kasich, refused to come to the convention or endorse the Republican nominee. The controversy continued outside of the convention, where numerous protests and counter-protests were held, forcing the police to intervent, and inside it, where gaffes and embarrassments were widely reported by the media. Let's examine the convention more closely, night-by-night, and skim over the major events:

Day 1- Terrorism & Plagiarism

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The first day of the RNC, dubbed Make America Safe Again, was supposed to focus on terrorism, national security and crime. And indeed, many of the speakers were meant exactly for that, with veterans, families of terror victims and, controversially, families of crime specificalyl commited by illegal immigrants. But with many prominent Republican congressmen with national security experience, like Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) refusing to attend, some felt that the speeches were lackluster. The speeches by non-politicians were considered generally unpolished, and a speech by former Mayor of NYC Rudy Giuliani was criticized as bizarre and feverish.

A speech by Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) did seem to excite the crowd and deliver a strong message (increasing speculation of a Tom Cotton 2020 Presidential bid), but the real highlight of the night came when the nominee's wife, Melania Trump came to speak. Her speech seemed, at first, powerful and she delivered it well, but it did not take long for the media to pick up on an eery similarity between her speech and that of First Lady Michelle Obama in the 2012 DNC. And indeed, the speeches were nearly identical, prompting accusations of plagiarism and miring the RNC with controversy.

Day 2- Working Class Appeal

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In a day dubbed "Make America Work Again", the Republicans tried to appeal to white working class voters, especially in rustbelt and midwest states like Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin. In the same day, Donald Trump was formally nominated for President and Chris Christie was nominated Vice President.

It was considered the most successful night of the convention, with little controversy and strong speeches from Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Vice Presidential Nominee Chris Christie that attempted to unite the party. However, even the second night was not without its problems- Christie's speech was criticized as too bombastic and "outright offensive", as Vice President Joe Biden called it, with harsh attacks against President Obama, and Trump was criticized for listing both his children, Tiffany and Donald Jr., as headliner speakers.

Day 3- Protectionists Assemble, and... Vote Your Conscious?

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The third day of the RNc started well, with powerful speeches from Governor Scott Walker (R-WI), Governor Rick Scott (R-FL) and others, as well as speeches attacking President Obama for his free trade policy and calling for a protectionist, "America First" midset which seems to resonate with many voters. However, then came Ted Cruz.

The Texas Senator and runner-up in the primaries was expected to endorse Trump in the convention, but instead called for conservatives to "vote your conscious". The call, a barely-veiled repudiation of the Republican nominee, enraged the crowd and Cruz was booed away from the stage. But the damage was done, and the next speeches by Newt Gingrich and Eric Trump didn't reverse it.

Day 4- The Donald

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The last day of the RNC was dubbed "Make America One Again", and in it, Republicans hoped to finally unite conservative voters around their nominee. But speeches by controversial figures like Joe Arpaio and Peter Thiel didn't seem to promote unity, even though the speech made by Ivanka Trump was praised as "powerful and unifying".

Donald Trump finally gave his own speech by the end of the night- the last speech in the convention-  where he tried to present himself as an agent of change, the "only man who can fix the country". Of course, it received mixed reviews. President Obama called it "doom and gloom" in a New Hampshire rally. Senator Bernie Sanders called it "arrogant". Secretary Hillary Clinton called it "a wild attack against America". But others praised it as an energizing, charismatic speech, and said that Trump looked comfortable and optimistic about his campaign- Rudy Giuliani even noteably called it "the best convention speech since Reagan's Morning in America."

But despite all the controversy, it seems, Republicans came out of Cleveland more united than before, and Trump saw a bump in his polling numbers, with Independent Conservative Jon Huntsman's numbers significantly decreasing.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 50%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 43%  () (+2)
Undecided- 7% () (-1)
OBAMA +7

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 46%  () (+-0)
Donald Trump- 36%  () (+4)
Jon Huntsman- 8%  () (-3)
Gary Johnson- 5%  () (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5% () (-1)
OBAMA +10

Question: What kind of Trump audio leak do you plan on having for the October Surprise?  I don't think "Grab 'em by the <Blank>" is going to have quite the same effect with two male nominees, so I'm wondering.

Hm... I see where you're leading. I actually didn't plan to change the original leak, considering the fact that it would still hurt him with women. And I'm not sure if I'm comfortable with contrieving a new leak, as I can't tell for sure what Trump said or didn't say. But we'll see.

Maybe Access Hollywood can be one leak among many?

July 23rd, 2016

REPORT: After 20,000 DNC emails leak, Chairwoman Wasserman-Schultz resigns; sources claim President Obama "forced her to resignation"

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - A mere day after the big dump of leaked DNC emails by Wikileaks, Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz announced that she resigns her position "effective immediately". Replacing her as Interim Chair will be Donna Brazile, who escaped controversy in the recent leaks.

The email leaks showed DNC staffers deriding the Bernie Sanders campaign and Schultz herself aggressively attacking Sanders, his campaign staffers and media personalities who covered her negatively. In one email, after Mika Brzezinski accused Schultz of bias against Sanders and called for her resignation, she told NBC Political director Chuck Todd that "such coverage must stop" and that it was the "LAST straw". In another instance, she described Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver as "a damn liar".

Following the leaks, the Obama campaign rebuked Schultz and the DNC staffers, calling the treatment of the Sanders campaign "concerning and unnecessary". According to various reports, the President was adamant in distancing himself from the Chairwoman and, when she reportedly refused to resign, the White House mounted increasing pressure on her to staqnd down, until eventually she received "a sharp call" from the President and subsequently resigned. Asked to comment, Senator Bernie Sanders said that he forgives Schultz for these comments, but that it is "good that she resigned", and that "the President handled this well."

But Press Secretary Josh Earnest added in a press conference that the leaks are seen as "a serious breach of the American electoral process and privacy" by Wikileaks, and called Julian Assange "a traitor and servant of hostile nations", implying the long-suspected involvement Wikileaks had with Vladimir Putin's Government. The Russian issue is becoming increasingly important in the campaign, after the Flynn debacle and now the email leak. Democrats and some Republicans criticize Trump for "overly friendly" comments about Putin, and for his calls on Russia to find Secretary Clinton's "30,000 emails that are missing", a request which, as Vice President Biden said in a Nashua, NH rally, "was, after a fashion, answered." The issue also seems to harm Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who has been consistently polling below 1% ever since pictures of her in an RT galla, around a table with Mike Flynn and Vladimir Putin. But meanwhile, following the leaks and the RNC, Donald Trump has a reason to smile:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 48%  () (-2)
Donald Trump- 44%  () (+1)
Undecided- 8% () (+1)
OBAMA +4

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 45%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 38%  () (+2)
Jon Huntsman- 8%  () (+-0)
Gary Johnson- 4%  () (-1)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5% () (+-0)
OBAMA +7

July 24th, 2016

Obama selects Tammy Baldwin as running mate; calls on Americans "to make history again"

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MILWAUKEE - At a big, crowded rally in Wisconsin's largest city, President Barack Obama finally announced his choice for running mate in the 2016 election, following Vice President Biden's decision to not seek a third term. Obama's choice was the state's U.S. Senator, Tammy Baldwin.

Formerly a long-time Representative, and elected to the Senate in 2012, Baldwin does not bring much important experience to the ticket, but she does bring an important thing- excitement. A progressive with both establishment and populist appeal, a woman and a lesbian, the Wisconsin Senator helps bring enthusiasm to large swaths of the Democratic establishment, and hails from from a potential swing state in an area where the Trump campaign is trying to flip states rich with 'white working class' voters.

Baldwin's choice is considered solid, and she gave a rousing speech to the Milwaukee crowd, which, some claim, rivaled even the President's speech in the rally. Vice President Joe Biden, who also attended the rally, called Baldwin "a true voice for progress and equality", Secretary Clinton lauded Obama for making "a bold, historic choice" and Senator Sanders said that he was "satisfied with the choice", adding that "Baldwin is a progressive who supports causes very important for us."

But the Republicans, of course, weren't happy with the choice. Nominee Donald Trump called Baldwin "EXTREME & UNHINGED" in a tweet, Speaker Paul Ryan said that "the President continues in a dangerous direction of, frankly, socialism", and Senator Ted Cruz announced that "Baldwin stands against all the values we believe in", prompting accusation of homophobia and outrage amongst lgbtq groups, including the Cabin Log Republicans who called Cruz's comment "completely distasteful and unacceptable." Trump's new campaign advisor, Kellyanne Conway, claimed that "the President is trying to turn the public's attention from the damning email leaks, but the American people aren't stupid." And indeed, many pundits are speculating that the Baldwin choice was an attempt to diverge attention away from the damaging news about the leaks. With the DNC in Philadelphia just one day away, this was certainly necessary.

Great updates. Obama/Baldwin would be a very intersting ticket and may be a smart Rust Belt strategy against Tonald Drump.

Love it!

Love to see a Gary Johnson or Johnny Huntsman rise.

I'm for Obama in 2016.

This is hella awesome!

Up with O'Baldwin! :D

Can't wait to see who Huntsman taps as a running-mate.

July 25th - July 28th, 2016

The Democratic National Convention: Pres. Obama walks out of Philadelphia with a united party

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PHILADELPHIA - Entering the 2016 DNC, President Barack Obama had one goal- uniting the progressive, liberal and moderate bases of the Democratic party, as well as independent voters, behind him as he heads to a clash with Donald Trump in the general election. After a bruising primary against Senator Bernie Sanders and Secretary Hillary Clinton, he needed to reassure and regain the support of the Sanders supporters, and to a lesser extent the Clinton ones as well.

This mission was largely successful. In a diverse DNC, with speakers of all wings of the party and some rousing speeches, Obama managed to present the Democrats as a big-tent party, but one which fights for progressive values at the same time. Post-convention polls showed that over 90% of former Sanders supporters were planning to vote for Obama, and close to 100% of former Clinton supporters were planning to do the same. Let's look at the major events in the convention:

Day 1- The Progressives

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During the 1st night of the DNC, dubbed "Unity", many prominent Democrats gave speeches in support of the party and of President Obama. Noteably, it seems like the heavy guns of the Progressive wing in the party were brought out, with Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) giving the keynote speech, Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) giving a headliner and Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR), the latter being the only Senator to endorse Sanders during the primary, giving their own speeches. All four are considered identified with the Progressive wing, and all four gave rousing, overwhelming speeches of support for the President. Sanders urged all who voted for him to support Obama, Warren called him "a historic, progressive breakthrough in our political system" and Brown attacked the Republican nominee, saying that "the President is fighting for the little guy- Donald Trump is fighting against the little guy, and for his billionaire friends."

Day 2- Michelle & The Presidents

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Named "Experience", the second night of the DNC featured several very prominent speakers that fired up the crowd. Former President Bill Clinton gave a rousing speech, lauding his wife's former rival as "one of the greatest leaders of this generation". Candidate for the U.S. Senate from Georgia and former State Senator Jason Carter gave a very impressive speech, firing up the crowd, introducing his grandfather, former President Jimmie Carter, who made the effort to arrive to Philadelphia and gave an optimistic speech about the future of the country under President Obama, denouncing Donald Trump's extremist rhetoric. Several other prominent past Democrats, such as former nominee Michael Dukakis, spoke as well. But without a doubt, once again, the headline of the night was the speech given by First Lady Michelle Obama- charismatic, inspiring and rousing, Obama delivered again, making the convention crowd go wild and spurring even more media speculation about the political future of the beloved First Lady.

Day 4- The Running Mates

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The third night of the DNC, called "Hard Work", saw Barack Obama's Vice Presidential choice, Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, facing her first test- a speech before the DNC. After being introduced by yet another powerful speech from Vice President Joe Biden, Baldwin managed to deliver a strong, energizing appeal to women and the people of middle America, ending her speech with a powerful sentence- "we care about you, we love you, and we're ready to work hard for you!" The speech was praised in the media, and, it seemed, Obama's choice passed the test.
Other speeches given during the night came from Secretary of State John Kerry, who praised Obama's leadership as "stable and calm", and from Independent Businessman and former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who delivered a sharp rebuke against his fellow businessman: “Donald Trump says he wants to run the country like he runs his business... God help us. I’m a New Yorker, and I know a con when I see one!" However, Bloomberg fell short of endorsing President Obama, leaving the possibility of supporting Jon Huntsman's independent bid, and the speech was critisized by many progressive activists, dampening the night.

Day 5- Mr. President

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In the final night of the DNC, called "Fired Up", President Obama finally gave his long-awaited speech to the convention. Before him spoke two other very prominent Democrats- former Vice President Al Gore, who gave a sharp environmentalist statement contrasting between "the clueless, arrogant rich man who only cares about his profits and thinks climate change is a hoax, and the progressive President who works hard to save the world from this impending doom", and former Secretary Hillary Clinton, who appeared to be giving the farewell speech of her political career by making a ringing endorsement of "our wonderful President" and calling for women to "come out and vote for the only candidate who cares about you and your rights, getting us closer to finally breaking that hardest ceiling." Other noteable speeches during the night came from South Bend Mayor and candidate for Indiania Governor, Pete Buttigieg, who gave a powerful and charismatic address, and from Russ Feingold, the candidate for Wisconsin's Senate seat, who gave yet another appeal to progressives to unite behind President Obama.

The President's speech was, just as expected, one of the best, if not the best, in the convention. The crowd chanted "Four More Years" in ringing voices as the President delivered a rousing, powerful statement: "Contrary to what the Republican nominee is claiming, America is great. America is great, and we're going to keep making it greater, by continuing the work we've been doing for the last eight years. Let's choose progress, not regress, let's choose freedom and equality, not authoritarianism and racism! I'm fired up and ready to go, and work hard for the American people Four More Years!"

Coming out of Philadelphia with a united, energized Democratic Party, Obama bounced up in the polls, recovering from his recent slump. The General election campaign could finally start.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 52%  () (+4)
Donald Trump- 42%  () (-2)
Undecided- 6% () (-2)
OBAMA +10

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 48%  () (+3)
Donald Trump- 37%  () (-1)
Jon Huntsman- 7%  () (-1)
Gary Johnson- 4%  () (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 4% () (-1)
OBAMA +11

Hype!

SPECIAL: THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Part 1)

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The 2008 Democratic primary was, from the start, widely expected to get crowded. With an unpopular Republican President, the Democrats were thought likely to regain the White House, and so, the horserace started.

Throughout 2006, speculation swirled about the big contenders for the Democratic nomination. Former First Lady and Senator from New York Hillary Clinton, despite her husband's loss in 2000, was widely considered the likely frontrunner, as Bush's unpopularity increased nostalgia for the Clinton years. Other major names that were being continuously floated are 2004 nominee and former Vice President Al Gore (D-TN), 2004 Vice Presidential nominee and former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT), powerful Senator John Kerry (D-MA), 2004 primary third-place finisher and Senator John Edwards (D-NC) former popular Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) and progressive Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI). Freshman Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) was also being speculated, but not included in most public polls as he was initially considered unlikely to run. The polling in late 2006 showed a race centering around three candidates:

Democratic Nomination- November 2006 (General)
Senator Hillary Clinton- 35%
Fmr. VP Al Gore- 22%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 16%
Senator John Kerry- 9%
Senator John Edwards- 5%
Fmr. Governor Mark Warner- 5%
Senator Russ Feingold- 4%
Senator Joe Biden- 2%
Senator Evan Bayh- 1%
Governor Tom Vilsack- 1%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 0%

Soon enough, the race started to clear as candidates announced one by one. Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean and John Kerry all decided to run. Al Gore, John Edwards, Mark Warner and Russ Feingold declined. Other announced candidates were Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM) and Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-OH). Meanwhile, Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA) and Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) already managed to drop out of the race due to low name recognition and fundraising. But the real shaking of the race came in Februart 10th, 2007, when Barack Obama announced his run. Giving one charismatic speech after the other in crowded rallies, the freshman Senator was gaining an enthusiastic following and generating energy, and soon enough seemed like a serious contender.

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Senator Obama announcing his Presidential bid in Springfield, Illinois

The race continued slowly through 2007, with no major shake-ups on the Republican side. But as time went by, a trend was beginning to be seen- the frontrunners were losing strength and their rivals were gaining. Mainly, Vice Presidential nominee Howard Dean was declining, and Senator Barack Obama was rising. Dean, formerly a progressive favourite, was seen now as "old news", known commodity, who couldn't excite the grassroots as much as he did in 2004. Instead, Obama was the exciting candidate, a fresh, charismatic face. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton's lead was also eroding, while Senator John Kerry was gaining strength. Obama and Kerry were consistently shining in the debates, and though Hillary Clinton and Howard Dean were performing decently, they were no longer the only stars. The other candidates were unable to gain much traction. The polls reflected this:

Democratic Nomination- November 2006 (General)
Senator Hillary Clinton- 35%
Senator Barack Obama- 21%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 15%
Senator John Kerry- 12%
Senator Joe Biden- 4%
Governor Bill Richardson- 3%
Senator Chris Dodd- 2%
Representative Dennis Kucinich- 2%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 0%
Undecided- 6%

Going into Iowa, the three leading campaigns, and many of the other contenders, were pegging their hopes on the caucuses. The Clinton campaign was investing heavily in the state, but was pretty confident that the former First Lady's popularity among working-class white voters will give her a victory. Meanwhile, Obama and Dean were heavily campaigning in the Hawkeye State, fiercely contesting the grassroots support, while the Kerry campaign only did limited investment there, focusing on New Hampshire. The results, when they came, sent shockwaves through the Democratic party, an through the nation:

2008 Democratic Iowa Caucues
Senator Barak Obama- 32% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton- 28%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 21%
Senator John Kerry- 17%
Senator Joe Biden- 5%
Governor Bill Richardson- 5%
Senator Chris Dodd- 2%
Represenative Dennis Kukinich- 1%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 1%

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Senator Obama gives his victory speech in Iowa

The young Senator from Illinois upset the experienced, popular Hillary Clinton in the Hawkeye state. Senators Biden and Dodd, as well as Governor Richardson, withdrew following their dismal showing. Following the defeat, the Clinton campaign turned in panic to New Hampshire, where they relied on momentum following the Iowa win rather than heavy campaigning. The Dean campaign also swooped on the Granite State, seeing it as possibly their last shot. The results in New Hampshire, however, gave the race yet another shakup:

2008 Democratic New Hampshire Primary
Senator John Kerry- 27% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton- 26%
Senator Barak Obama- 24%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 23%
Represenative Dennis Kucinich- 0%
Fmr. Senator Mike Gravel- 0%

The Massachusetts Senator saw his efforts and strong debating bear fruit, and emrged on top in the Granite State, and two campaigns were forced to end- Kucinich and Gravel finally dropped out. A strong showing by Clinton kept her campaign afloat, but the Nevada Caucuses were seen as an absolute must-win. Meanwhile, Obama looked beyond, to South Carolina, where he hoped to win by a landslide and establish himself as the frontrunner, and Dean's campaign was on the ropes, but the former Governor swooped into Nevada and vowed to stay at least until Super Tuesday.

After New Hampshire, the non-binding Michigan primary saw a Clinton victory, narrowly defeating the only other candidate on the ballot, Howard Dean. Then, Nevada came and Hillary Clinton finally scored a victory:

2008 Democratic Nevada Caucuses
Senator Hillary Clinton- 34% ✓
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 30%
Senator Barak Obama- 21%
Senator John Kerry- 15%

The Democratic race continued, and now seemed more uncertain than ever, with a potential for an ugly, 4-way convention battle, handing Republicans a precious gift in a tough general election for them.

SPECIAL: THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Part 2)

With a victory in Nevada, Hillary Clinton managed to continue fighting on. She campaigned in South Carolina, hoping to do the seemingly impossible and upset Barack Obama, while the other two candidates moved to Super Tuesday. Senator Obama coasted to victory in the Palmetto State, but Clinton's strong showing there ensured her place as a strong contender:

2008 Democratic South Carolina
Senator Barak Obama- 53% ✓
Senator Hillary Clinton- 31%
Senator John Kerry- 10%
Fmr. Governor Howard Dean- 6%

Now, only the non-binding Florida Primary, won by Clinton, was left before Super Tuesday. And then, in February 5th the fateful day arrived, where 23 states and American Samoa voted. Many pundits considered it the most important moment in the campaign, awarding a huge number of delegates. The result seemed  to confirm that the Democratic race was, after all, a battle of two.

States won by Barack Obama:
Alabama
Colorado
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota
North Dakota
Utah

States won by Hillary Clinton:
American Samoa
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Missouri
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Tennessee

States won by John Kerry:
Colorado
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Jersey

States won by Howard Dean:
Alaska
Vermont

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The remaining contenders after Super Tuesday

The Super Tuesday contests landed a deathblow on the campaign of Howard Dean, former Vice Presidential nominee. Only winning his homestate and the Alaska Caucuses, Dean was forced to drop out. Meanwhile, KErry managed to keep himself afloat by winning several contests, but it was quite clear that the race was now between Senator Obama and Senator Clinton.

In the February 9th contests, Obama sweeped Louisiana, Nebraska, the Virgin Islands and Washington. A day after, Kerry won a narrow victory in Maine. And two days after, in the 12th, Obama continued with victories in Washington D.C., Virginia and the Democrats Abroad, narrowly defeating Kerry in Maryland as well. In February 19th, Obama won Hawaii and Wisconsin too, and seemed headed for victory. But in March 4th, Clinton rebounded, winning Ohio and Texas, while Kerry won Rhode Island by a tiny margin. Obama followed up with a win in Wyoming 4 days later, and a landslide in Mississippi in March 11th. The Massachusetts Senator decided to stay in until the Pennsylvania Primary in April 22nd, hoping for a victory there, but in the end he came third, behind Obama, with Clinton coming first. Following that, Kerry finally dropped out.

The rest of the race was a battle between Obama and Clinton, with the Illinois Senator increasingly seeming inevitable- he won Indiana and North Carolina in May 6th and Oregon in May 20th, while Clinton won West Virginia in May 13th and Kentucky in the 20th. In June 1st, Obama won Puerto Rico, while in the 3rd, the last day of contests, Obama finally won South Dakota and Montana, securing a plurality of delegates.

As no candidate won an outright majority of delegates, Democrats were shaking in fear at the prospect of a contested convention. But luckily for them, after Dean and Kerry gave firm endorsements of Obama, Clinton decided not to contest the convention, and the Illinois Senator became the first African American presumptive nominee of a major party.

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American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
US Virgin Islands
Democrats Abroad

Barack Obama- 38.7%, 1415 pledged delegates, 527 super delegates, total: 1942 delegates ✓
Hillary Clinton- 32.5%, 1240 pledged delegates, 231 super delegates, total: 1471  delegates
John Kerry- 19.1%, 776 pledged delegates, 59 super delegates, total: 835 delegates
Howard Dean- 8.8%, 128 pledged delegates, 6 super delegates, total: 134 delegates
Others- 0.9%, 0 delegates

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Results of the 2008 Democratic Primary

With the primaries done, Barack Obama was ready to go up against the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain, in the General Election. George Bush initially contemplated a run for a third term, but ruled it out after his approvals started to dip. And indeed, with a weakening economy and high disapproval for the Republican President, it seemed likely that Obama would become the first African American President. He chose Senator Joe Biden, who contemplated him with his experience and white working-class appeal, as running mate, and marched into the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorad. The rest is history...

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Senator Joe Lieberman gives the 2008 RNC keynote address, supporting McCain and infuriating Democrats

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Controversial Governor Sarah Palin accepts the 2008 Republican Vice Presidential nomination

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Senator John McCain accepts the Republican nomination in a well-received speech

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Hillary Clinton gives the 2008 keynote DNC address, enthusiastically endorsing Obama

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Senator Biden accepts the Vice Presidential nomination in an energetic speech

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Senator Obama gives a rousing nomination acceptance speech in the 2008 DNC

So the 2008 GOP primaries go the same as real life?

Yep. George Bush made noises of running throughout 2005-2006, but when his approvals started dipping he decided not to do it. The 2008 GOP primaries and the 2008 GE go as in OTL, which means that we're basically done with the specials.

August 2nd, 2016

Huntsman announces James Stavridis as running mate on independent ticket, attempts to regain momentum

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SALT LAKE CITY - In a campaign rally that drew a large crowd, bigger than he ever received during his 2012 Presidential run, former Governor Jon Huntsman announced that Retired Admiral James Stavridis, who was a top aide to the Navy Secretary in the Clinton administration and commanded NATO and U.S. forces in Europe, will join him on his independent ticket.

Stavridis lauded Huntsman as "a courageous, principled man with a deep, well-needed understanding of foreign policy and diplomacy." He briefly criticized the Obama administration's foreign policy as "ineffective", but focused most of his fire on the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, who he said would be "disastrous and dangerous" for America's valuable soft power and influence around the world. Huntsman echoed his running mate's statement, adding that they will be "a team of a diplomat and a soldier who will navigate the American ship through the stormy international waters."

The pick is expected to give Huntsman's independent bid some much-needed publicity, as well as a trusted figure to boost his support. It's a move to stop the former Governor's decline in the polls following the Republican and Democratic National Conventions boosting their nominees. While President Obama said that he respects Stavridis and hopes that he will help add to "an intelligent conversation" during the election, Donald Trump lashed out in a tweet, criticized by Democrats and moderate Republicans as disrespectful to the military:

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Here's to me hoping for chaos and to no one getting 270 votes.

so Huntsman is basically just a stronger McMullin?
He's going to win Utah and maybe one other state. Greens should try to kick Stein out, seeing as how she completely died in the polls after the leaked image.

August 7th, 2016

Despite controversy, Green Party nominates Jill Stein for President, Ajamu Baraka for Vice President

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HOUSTON - Despite a last-minute attempt to defeat her by rivals within the party, who claimed that her dismal polling numbers and unpopularity made her a bad candidate, the Green Party of the United States formally nominated its 2012 nominee, Jill Stein, as Presidential nominee and "human rights" activist Ajamu Baraka as its Vice Presidential nominee.

The convention in Houston was held under the shadow of recent damaging controversy about Stein, as a photo leaked of her sitting on the same table with Russian President Vladimir Putin, withdrawn Trump running mate choice Mike Flynn and others in an RT galla, caused many progressives to accuse her of colluding with Russia to spoil the election for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Though initially considered a possible destination for defecting leftists who feel President Obama is a "corporatist", the photo leak and following controversy prompted progressive favourite Bernie Sanders to say that President Putin is a "terrible, authoritarian figure who cares nothing for human rights or the environment", and allude to Stein by saying that "those who pretend to care about these issues shouldn't support and celebrate his propaganda channel."

Sanders' comment seemed to be the nail in the coffin, and Stein's polling numbers fell down below the 1%, with only diehard Green Party activists remaining to support her. Despite this, the party did not budge and nominated Stein. More controversy arose in the convention itself, as Wikileaks' Julian Assange, who is widely accused of working for Putin and leaking Democratic emails to damage Obama and help Trump, addressed the adoring delegates.

New polling doesn't show any improvement for the Green Party, but it does show the Stavridis running-mate choice aiding Jon Huntsman and raising fears in the RNC that the Independent Conservative former Utah Governor will qualify for the debates:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 51%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 43%  () (+1)
Undecided- 6% () (+-0)
OBAMA +8

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 47%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 35%  () (-2)
Jon Huntsman- 10%  () (+3)
Gary Johnson- 3%  () (-1)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5% () (+1)
OBAMA +12

August 11th, 2016

Obama campaign announces 50-state strategy in the face of Trump polling weakness, hires Roby Mook as senior advisor

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CHICAGO - The Obama 2016 Presidential campaign is getting into gear as the fall campaign nears. In a series of reforms, campaign manager Jim Messina and Chief Strategist David Axelrod have hired a bunch of new campaign aides and advisors, including former manager of Hillary Clinton's campaign in the 2016 Democratic primaries, Robby Mook.

Young and a rising star in the party, Mook was considered an able manager of the Clinton campaign, which in the end fell due to its candidate's inability to defeat President Obama rather than due to lackluster managing. According to official statements, Mook will advise the campaign on matters of "media and youth outreach", as well as manager turnout operations in various swingstates.

Additionally, the campaign has announced that in face of the strong polling gap opened by Obama against Trump, it will work on a 50-state strategy to appeal and turn out voters from every state, "from D.C. to Wyoming". When asked by reporters whether the campaign will concentrate on swingstates, Axelrod answered that "of course we will focus on the key states," but that "we're going to reach every state and every citizen, for downballot races but also for the race on the top of the ballot."

As the Obama campaign reforms to become a well-oiled machine, the Trump campaign seems to be struggling, with manager Corey Lewandowski resigning in June after being charged of physically assaulting a Breitbart reporter. His duties were, de-facto, assumed by campaign chairman Paul Manafort, but recent controversy surrounding Manafort's connections to Russia seems to be threatening his position, too.

August 19th, 2016

Trump campaign shakeup: Manafort out, Conway, Bannon in

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NEW YORK CITY - Less than a week after the Obama campaign announced its ambitious 50-state plan, the Trump campaign, embroiled in controversy over both its candidate and key figures inside it, has undergone a shakeup of its own, trying to catch fire again and close the gap with the incumbent President.

And so, controversial campaign chairman and de-facto manager, Paul Manafort, who was accused of receiving millions of dollars off-the-books from former pro-Putin Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's party and of other connections with the Russian regime, announced his resignation as chairman of the campaign. Instead, his duties were taken by two figures hired two days before his resignation, pollster and Republican political operative Kelleyanne Connway as campaign manager and Steve Bannon, chief-editor of the controversial alt-right media source Breitbard News, as chief executive of the campaign.

The change is considered an attempt to both stabilize the campaign with strong figures that will keep the infighting at bay, and a signal that it will continue to be a negative campaign, bashing President Obama, the Democrats and even the Republican establishment, with Bannon often quoted saying fiery statements against the entire political establishment.

In a further attempt to gain momentum, the Trump campaign announced a host of co-chairs who will serve as surrogates and supporters, including former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY), Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR), former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK), former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), surgeon Ben Carson (R-MD) and former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR).

Shortly after, though, when the Obama campaign announced its own co-chairs, the Trump list seemed lackluster: it included popular, diverse figues such as Governor Deval Patrick (R-MA), Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI), former Senator Lincoln Chafee (D-RI), Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), former Presidents Jimmy Carter (D-GA) and Bill Clinton (D-AR) and others. And thus, with Trump's aggressive campaign ready for collision with the strong campaign of the incumbent President, running for a historic third term, the fall campaign was set to begin.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 50%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 43%  () (+-0)
Undecided- 7% () (+1)
OBAMA +7

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 46%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 35%  () (+-0)
Jon Huntsman- 11%  () (+1)
Gary Johnson- 3%  () (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5% () (+-0)
OBAMA +11

NEXT UP: Downballot races. Stay tuned!

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - With the race for the White House heating up, the Republicans and Democrats are focusing on another important battle- the one waged for control of both Houses of Congress, which could both go either way according to pundits, but especially the battle for the Senate. President Donald Trump is widely treated as an albatross around the neck of downballot Republicans, especially in swing races, causing many to distance themselves from their party's nominee, but it could be a dangerous game depressing their base's turnout, and Trump's presence is always there, looming behind every Republican, a big target for the Democrats. Let us examine the Senate races closely and see where each party can make gains.

In Alabama, one of the most ruby-red states in the nation, Democrats aren't investing resources. Senator Richard Shelby, safe and popular, after easily turning back a conservative primary challenge from businessman Jonathan McConnell, is expected to cruise to an easy reelection over the Democratic nominee, marijuana legalization activist Ron Crumpton.
RATING: Safe R

Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski is considered fairly safe in her reelection bid, however, she's threatened by a right-wing challenge from the nominee of the Libertarian Party, Attorney Joe Miller, who previously defeated her in the 2014 Republican primary only to lose to her write-in general election campaign. Additionally, Democratic former State Senator Hollis French is challenging her from the left, making the race a potentially perilous battle for the moderate Senator Murkowski.
RATING: Lean R

In Arizona, Democratic see a prime pickup opportunity. They hope to exploit two factors and achieve an upset victory in a previously reliable Republican state- the state's trend to the left with a big hispanic population, and longtime incumbent John McCain defeating a bruising challenge from far right former State Senator Kelly Ward, as well as the backlash he faces due to his refusal to endorse Trump, who said that the 2008 Republican nominee is "not a hero" because he was captured. However, McCain is a popular and experienced politician, one of the Republican party's symbolic figures, and would be tough to defeat.
RATING: Lean R

In Arkansas, incumbent Senator John Boozman, having defeated Democratic former Senator Blanche Lincoln, is popular and polling very strongly. Despite rumours that one of the Democrats who lost their races in 2010 and 2014, Lincoln or former Senator Mark Pryor, might try to challenge Boozman, he only got a minor rival in the form of Democratic Attorney Connor Elbridge. With the national party barely investing in the race, Boozman is safe.
RATING: Safe R

Two Democrats advanced to the runoff in California's nonpartisan blanket primary- State Attorney General Kamala Harris and U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez. Harris, who has the support of the Obama campaign, is expected to defeat Sanchez, who has support from Clintonworld. Whatever happens, this race will be won by a Democrat.
RATING: Safe D

Despite Colorado being, generally, a swingstate, incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is considered very popular and hard to beat. Thus, he got a fairly minor Republican rival in the form of El Passo County Comissioner Darryl Glenn. Additionally, Obama polls consistently well against Trump there. Still, this will be a race to watch due to Colorado's nature.
RATING: Likely D

In the Nutmeg State, Senator Richard Blumenthal is considered strong and popular. Despite the state's tedency to be receptive to moderate Republican candidates, State Senator Dan Carter is expected to lose quite handily due to a favourable environment for Democrats and Blumenthal's popularity.
RATING: Safe D

In Florida, both the Republican and Democratic primaries were interesting. Incumbent Senator Marco Rubio, initially forsaking a reelection run in favour of a Presidential bid, changed his mind and managed to gain the Republican nomination, despite facing scrunity for, as his Democratic opponent called it, "lying to Florida voters". Meanwhile, former Representative and daughter of former Senator Bob Graham, Gwen Graham, surprisingly jumped into the race, despite speculations that she was aiming for a gubernatorial run in 2018. This was after initial Democratic frontrunner, Representative Patrick Murphy, was convinced to run for reelection in his Republican-leaning district instead, in order to increase the chances a Democrat would win there and help the party flip the House. Graham dispatched a primary rival in form of provocative far-left Representative Alan Grayson quite easily, and now she's hoping to challenge Rubio, frequently using his flip-flopping as an attack line and her family's deep roots and popularity in Florida as a way to attack him for "not caring" about the people of the state and using the Senate as a springboard for Presidential ambitios "from day one". Her attacks bruised Rubio, but he's still a popular Senator and a charismatic campaigner, so this is expected to be a very close race.
RATING: Tossup

Though initially considered likely to cruise to reelection, as Donald Trump's candidacy seemed to improve the prospects of a favourable national environment for Democrats, incumbent Republican Senator got a surprising and strong challenger- Jason Carter, a former State Senator, 2014 Gubernatorial candidate and grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. With this challenge and changing dempgraphics increasingly helping Democrats, this is expected to be a potentially tough race for Isakson, but the incumbent is a very strong and popular politician in his state, as well as a capable campaigner, and current polls show him leading solidly.
RATING: Likely R

In Hawaii, a solid blue state, popular incumbent Senator Brian Schatz, a strong public speaker, is facing only a minor challenge from the much-older Republican former state legislator John Carroll. He's expected to easily cruise to reelection.
RATING: Safe D

Incumbent Senator Mike Crapo is expected to easily win the race in the Republican state of Idaho against businessman Jerry Sturgill, and Democrats aren't investing here.
RATING: Safe R

After shockingly winning the Senate race for Barack Obama's old seat in 2010, Mark Kirk was expected to be hard to defeat in 2016. However, rumours of health problems coupled with a badly-run campaign full of gaffes, as well as a strong and appealing candidate in Representative and disabled veteran Tammy Duckworth, are causing major problems for him, and Duckworth seems to have consistent leads in the polls.
RATING: Likely D

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate (Part 2)

In another unexpected, prime pickup opportunity for Democrats, former Senator and Governor Evan Bayh entered the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Dan Coats. He faces a strong Republican challenger in Todd Young, however, and Bayh's baggage from his time in the D.C. lobbying business is expected to make this a close race despite initial polling leads for him.
RATING: Tossup

Initial polls were showing incumbent Senator Grassley easily leading over his likeliest challenger, former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge. However, when Agriculture Secretary and former Governor Tom Vilsack entered, reportedly with the urging of President Obama, the race suddenly became much closer. Both Grassley and Vilsack are very popular in their state, so this is definitely a race to watch.
RATING: Lean R

In another race where a Senator is expected to cruise for reelection without much of a challenge from the other party, popular incumbent Jerry Moran is challenged by Attorney Patrick Wiesner who isn't expected to make much of a splash.
RATING: Safe R

Rand Paul's reelection bid in Republican-friendly Kentucky isn't expected to get too perilous, dsespite the tough candidacy of Lexingtom Mayor and the first openly gay major party nominee for Senate in the state, Jim Gray. However, in the right environment this could become closer , perhaps due to Paul's controversial views or the state's relative elasticity.
RATING: Likely R

In Louisiana's jungle primary race to replace retiring Senator David Vitter (R), there are many serious contenders, though the leading candidates to qualify for the runoff are considered Kennedy, Campbell, Boustany and Fayard. But barring an upset with two Democrats advancing, or controversial former KKK grandwizard David Duke advancing against a Democrat, this race is considered likely to be won by whichever Republican gets to the runoff.
RATING: Likely R

In the race to replace retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski, the longest serving female Senator, Democrat Chris Van Hollen won a hard primary against Representative Donna Edwards. Now, he's likely to cruise to victory against Republican Delegate Kathy Szeliga in the blue state of Maryland.
RATING: Safe D

Despite  the state's Republican lean, Senate and Gubernatorial races in Missouri were always a tight affair. This year, incumbent Senator Roy Blunt was widely expected to win a solid reelection with the power of incumbency. However, his opponent, Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander, a young veteran, has been running a strong and effective campaign, especially in comparison to Blunt's "sleepwalking" campaign, making this race closer and closer. Many Democrats are hopeful that Kander's youth, charisma and attractiveness can serve as a way to defeat the old Senator Blunt.
RATING: Tossup

In Nevada, the race to replace retiring Senator Harry Reid is very close between former State Attorney Genral Catherine Cortez Masto and Representative Joe Heck. On the one hand, Masto is popular and charismatic, appealing to the state's large hispanic community. On the other hand, Heck's brand of moderate Republicanism is popular in Nevada, and his refusal to endorse Trump could help him, or harm him with his base. That remains to be seen.
RATING: Tossup

Touted as a rising Republican star and a possible contender for the Presidency or Vice Presidency, Senator Kelly Ayotte is now fighting for her political life against the state's governor, Maggie Hassan. She's wading dangerous waters in her neutrality about Donald Trump, which could harm her with the base or help her with the state's large moderate, independent population. This is one of the closest races in the country right now.
RATING: Tossup

In the Empire State, Senator Chuck Schumer is not only very popular, but also destenied to become Democratic leader in the Senate, possibly Majority Leader of the stars align. New Yorkers are extremely unlikely to forsake this opportunity and elect his Republican opponent, attorney Wendy Long.
RATING: Safe D

The race in the Tar Heel state was close from the start, but when former Senator Kay Hagan, still popular despite a loss in 2014's unfavourable environment, entered, dispatching a primary challenge from former State Representative Deborah Ross, it became a tossup. Now, with Burr running a campaign considered lackluster by many, she even achieved a lead in some polls.
RATING: Tossup

In the red, oil-dependant state of North Dakota, incumbent Senator John Hoeven was never expected to have much trouble getting re-elected. But now, with Democrats using climate change as a key plank of their platform, he's expected to trounce former State Representative and Eliot Glassheim handily.
RATING: Safe R

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Battle for the Senate (Part 3)

Initially, former Governot Ted Strickland was considered the likeliest challenger for incumbent Republican Senator Rob Portman in Ohio, and many pundits expected it to be close. However, he then announced that he won't run, dealing a blow to an otherwise successful recruiting effort for Senate Democrats. Instead, former Representative Betty Sutton emerged victorious from a splintered field including Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfield, former Representative John Boccieri and former State Senator Nina Turner. The race is considered likely to go to Portman's way, but Sutton is running a strong campaign in this swingstate.
RATING: Lean R

Incumbent Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma had only one person to worry about in his reelection bid- former Representative Dan Boren. Once Democrats failed to recruit him, all that was left for Lakford is to cruise to reelection against a minor challlenger, political consultant Mike Workman, and this is just what he's currently doing.
RATING: Safe R

In Oregon, a state that usually had competitive races for Senate and Governor, Republicans hoped to force Democrats on the defensive in order to reelect Senator Ron Wyden. However, aided by an effective campaign and a good national environment, the incumbent is expected to easily win reelection over a poor recruit, perennial candidate Mark Callahan.
RATING: Safe D

In one of the closest and most watched races in the country, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey, who's touting a moderate record despite trying to primary former Senator Arlen Specter from the right back in 2004, is struggling for his political life against strong Democratic opposition in a Democratic-leaning state. However, Joe Sestak, a retired Admiral and former Representative seeking a rematch after losing to Toomey in 2010, just got out of a bruising, hard-fought primary against Katie McGinty, who only endorsed him reluctantly.
RATING: Tossup

While normally, Democrats would invest in the Senate race in a state like South Carolina, which has a large African American community, this year they're only presenting a minor challenger, pastor Thomas Dixon. This is because the incumbent, Tim Scott, is very popular and expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe R

In South Dakota, ranking Senate Republican John Thune, a popular incumbent in the state, was expected to quite easily win reelection. However, despite his previous reluctance, former Democratic Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle agreed to pleads from the Obama campaign to enter the race, and thus forced Republicans to spend efforts here. This is still considered an unlikely pickup for Democrats.
RATING: Likely R

Though initially fearing a primary challenge, Utah Senator Mike Lee won the Republican nomination without competition. Now, he's facing the first transgender woman to be a major party's Senate nominee, grocery store clerk Misty Snow, a self described "Sanders Democrat", and is expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe R

In Bernie Sanders' homestate, the most senior Democratic Senator, Patrick Leahy, is running for reelection. Though his Republican opponent, former Gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne who barely lost to Govenor Shmulin in 2014, is considered strong, Leahy is likely to cruise to an easy reelection.
RATING: Safe D

In Washington, just like in Oregon, Republicans hoped to present a strong challenge to ranking Democratic Senator Patty Murray. Former State Representative Chris Vance tried to do just that, but is considered a weak, barely-known candidate. Murray is expected to easily win reelection.
RATING: Safe D

In another important Senate race, former Senator and progressive darling Russ Feingold is running against the one who defeated him in the Republican wave of 2010, Senator Ron Johnson. Feingold's popularity in Wisconsin and the state's Cemocratic lean in Presidential years are expected to make this race in Feingold's favour, but it's still not a race Democrats should treat unseriously.
RATING: Lean D

They hired Mook? RIP Obama.

I hope William Kreml (Stein's main opponent) runs an independent campaign for those who were going to support Stein before the leak.

also, you accidentally said California instead of Colorado in the first Race for the Senate post.

So they can each get 0.45% of the popular vote? :P

it's what third parties do, right? Heck, he may even found his own party, and it replaces the Greens, we never know...

I guess there's the Justice Party for that if we get into the nitty gritty of micro parties. I'd imagine Glenn Beck and the "Truh Conservatives" still go for Castle.

Well, most Stein supporters still support her. The others either stay at home, or vote for various small parties, or support Obama. Remember, she got 0.36% of the vote in 2012, the 1% she got in 2016 wasn't the natural Green Party base but mainly due to Clinton's unpopularity. So while the photo harmed her, its impact isn't that huge, and a Kreml candidacy will probably fail to get much support or ballot access.
Also: Thanks for the interest, everyone! Governors post coming soon, and then the fall campaign- I anticipate reaching election night in a few weeks! :)

Tom Daschle, lmao.

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Struggle for the Mansions (PART 1)

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WASHINGTON, D.C. - While the battle for Congress occupies much of the attention of pundits, politicians and political observers, another important issue will be on the ballot in a dozen states come Nobember 8th- the election of their governors for the next four years. Here, the races seem more local than nationalized, and Trump's effect on the Republican candidates for office is less obvious, and depends on their willingness to embrace him. Let's observe the various races:

The race to succeed term-limited Governor Jack Markell (D) was initially thought to be dominated by Delaware's then-Attorney General and son of the Vice President, Beau Biden. However, when tragedy struck and Biden died of brain cancer, U.S. Representative and former Lieutenant Governor John Carney ran for, and won, the Democratic nomination instead. The Republican running against him, State Senator Colin Bonini, isn't running a very strong campaign and is considered likely to be swept away by Representative Carney, especially in a polarized election year.
RATING: Safe D

After declining to take the job of Republican nominee Donald Trump's running mate, Governor Mike Pence of Indiana is running for reelection. Against him stands a surprising candidate- South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, a young and charismatic politician who was able to excite the Democratic base and defeat former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives, John Gregg, 52%-47% in the primary. Pence's approval ratings are under the water and Democrats are excited at the possibility of a gay man defeating the conservative Governor who once expressed support for "conversion therapy", but Indiana is still a conservative state, leading many to believe that Buttigieg is just too off-putting for Hoosier voters.
RATING: Lean R

While the Democratic primary in Missouri's Gubernatorial race was nearly uncontested, and Attorney General Chris Koster easily won it, the Republican primary was different. Initially considered a battle between Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, State Auditor Tom Schweich and former Speaker of the Missouri House Catherine Hanaway. However, after Schweich's tragic suicide, various other candidates entered the race including former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, State Senator Bob Dixon and conservative businessman John Brunner. The race was tight and nasty, with no candidate really gaining an edge- Hanaway was initiallly the frontrunner but her campaign took much of the blame for the alleged "bullying" that lead to Schweich's suicide, and then Greitens became the front-runner but crushed after allegations of an affair surfaced. In the end, the result gave an edge to the candidate with the most statewide name recognition, Lieutenant Governor Kinder, who won 27% of the vote over 26% for Hanaway, 22% for Brunner, 17% for Greitens and 6% for Dixon. Now, in the general election to succeed Governor Jay Nixon (D), a bruised Kinder is facing a strong Democat, Koster, in a Republican-leaning state, and the race is expected to be tight.
RATING: Tossup

Governor Steve Bullock (D) is running for reelection in Montana, facing conservative businessman Greg Gianforte. Despite the state's conservative lean, Bullock is considered a popular governor and an able campaigner, while Gianforte's campaign has been lacking and some voters consider him too extreme, leading many to believe that the Governor will win reelection.
RATING: Lean D

In the race to succeed New Hampshire's Governor, Maggie Hassan, two popular politicians are running against each other, both members of the state's Executive Council advising and providing a check on the Governor. Republicans nominated Chris Sununu, son of former Governor John H. Sununu and brother of former Senator John E. Sununu, a son of one of the state's most influential political dynasties. Meanwhile, Democrats nominated Colin Van Ostern with the support of another Granite State political dynasty, the Shaheen family, setting up another Sununu vs Shaheen proxy war. The race is considered very tight, just like the Senate race in the same state, and could go either way.
RATING: Tossup

Runnin under the shadow of national outrage over an anti-transgender law and low approval ratings, Governor Pat McRory (R) is fighting for his political life over the Democratic nominee, Attorney General Roy Cooper. This is considered a tight race, but Democrats have started leading more and more in the polls, causing worries in the McRory campaign that he's the underdog in the race.
RATING: Lean D

Please read the first post in the end of the previous page. It contains the more interesting races anyway :P

September 1st, 2016

DOWNBALLOT RACES: The Struggle for the Mansions (PART 2)

While Democrats were initially ready to give up on the race, Tom Daschle's entrance to the Senate race eventually convinced them to run a semi-credible candidate in the race to succeed retiring Govenor Jack Darlymple (R), and they convinced former State Senator George B. Sinner to run as a sort of a sacrifical lamb against Republican nominee, businessman Doug Burgum. Still, the race is unlikely to get competitive.
RATING: Safe R

In Oregon, Governor Kate Brown, the former Secretary of State who was sworn in after former Governor John Kitzhaber's resignation amidst scandal, is running for reelection in a special election. Despite the circumstances of her rise, Oregon's liberal lean and her effective campaign lead her to lead the Republican nominee, physician Bud Pierce, and she's likely to be the first elected openly LGBTQ Governor in the history of the nation.
RATING: Likely D

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In Utah, Governor Gary Herbert is running strong and considered almost certain to defeat the Democratic nominee, businessman Mike Weinholtz. However, with former Governor Jon Huntsman, under whom he served as Lieutenant Governor, running as an independent, Herbert is facing a tough choice over who to endorse in the Presidential race, a choice that could have some impact on his reelection race.
RATING: Safe R

The race to succeed retiring Democratic Governor Peter Shmulin in one of the most leftist states in the union is shaping up to be surprisingly close. The Democratic nominee, former State Representative and Transportation Secretary under Shmulin, Sue Minter, is disliked by many Sanders supporters in his state and the man himself didn't even campaign for her yet, while the Republican nominee, Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott, is a fairly popular moderate Republican who already managed to win statewide. The little polling done there suggests a close race, but most observers predict that a Presidential election environment and polarization will hand the race to the Democrats.
RATING: Lean D

In one of the most conservative states in the nation, the race to succeed Democratic Governor Jay Rockfeller also appears to be tight. While President of the State Senate Bill Cole easily won the Republican nomination, the Democratic primary was a bloody battle between businessman, and Republican until 2015, Jim Justice, State Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler and Carte Goodwin, who briefly served as Senator in 2010 and was strongly supported by Senator Joe Manchin. In the end, after reminding voters of Justice's very recent party switch, Goodwin won the nomination 41% to 39% for Justice and 20% for Kessler. Now, pundits believe that Trump's popularity in the state and the fact that Goodwin was accused of being too liberal would hand the race to the Republicans.
RATING: Lean R

Incumbent Governor Jay Inslee and Republican former Port of Seatle Commissioner Bill Bryant advanced to the general election out of Washington's jungle primary. While Republicans were hoping to present a credible challenge to Inslee, their hopes crumbled as soon as they were forced to diverge resources to other races and face an uphill climb in the general election.
RATING: Safe D

Ohama wins

How is Gary Herbert an Independent?

Herbert is a Republican. Huntsman is running on an independent ticket in the Presidential election.

I think Obama wins in the end, but closer than exepected. Trump flips Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Obama keeps Florida and Michigan (any maybe takes Arizona).

September 11th, 2016

Candidates suspend campaigning to attend 9\11 memorials

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NEW YORK CITY - Suspending their campaign efforts for the day, Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Barack Obama attended the customary September 11 memorials. The President attended the memorial outside the Pentagon and gave heartfelt remarks, mourning the "3000 beautiful lives" lost in the attack and promising to do everything in his power to make sure "a tragedy like that will never happen again".

Meanwhile, Trump attended the anniversary ceremony itself in the memorial plaza in New York City, an apolitical ceremony attended by many politicians. Also in attendance were Trump's running mate, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and two former candidates for the 2016 Democratic nomination, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, as well as local politicians like New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Former Mayors Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg, New York Senators Chuck Schumer and Kristen Gillibrand, and Representatives of the state including Peter King and Hakeem Jeffries. Another noteable attendee was Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, Obama's running mate. Her appearance received some backlash, and the Obama campaign was criticized for "politicizing" the ceremony.

But with the somber remembrance day done, the campaign was back in full force. Trump immediately jumped on the criticism against the President's campaign, calling Senator Baldwin's attendance of the memorial "disgusting" in an interview to "Fox and Friends", and saying that it shows "President Obama has zero respect for anything". Governor Christie joined the chorus and lambasted the Democrats as "cynical people who make politics out of anything and have no shame." Democrats tried to deflect the outrage, employing New York politicians to the task. Senator Chuck Schumer called the criticism "a pile of nonsense". "Since when," he said in an interview, "the attendance of a U.S. Senator to such an important ceremony can be called 'disgusting'?" Fellow Senator Kirsten Gillibrand joined him, saying that "Trump is the one who has no shame."

Meanwhile, Independent candidate Jon Huntsman framed the exchange of fire between the two sides as "shameful mudslinging" which "shows very well how polarization is corrupting our political system." He claimed that both sides tried to exploit 9\11 for political gain, and that a third choice was needed. Retired Admiral James Starvidis, his running mate, added that "the major parties have no respect for our armed forces."

September 16th, 2016

Trump attempts to put birther controversy to rest, admits Obama was born in the U.S.

()

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Attempting to put to rest a very controversial issue, which was used by Democrats as a way to ram the Republican nominee and label him as a racist, Donald Trump announced today in a press conference that he believes President Obama was born in the United States: "President Barack Obama was born in the United States. Period."

Since 2011, Trump was a leader and prepertuer of a movement that doubted the President was born in the U.S., and thus was ineligible to serve. He continuesely claimed that Obama could've been born in Kenya and demanded a birth certificate. Even when the certificate was released, Trump claimed that it might've been a fraud, citing "an extremely credible source" and repeating that "many people are saying" Obama was not born in the U.S. The birther movement was accused of inherent racism by many Democrats and moderates, and the President laughed it off as ridiculous. Many pundits and political observers speculate that it might've been the start of Trump's rise as the leader of the populist right.

In the 2016 election, running against Obama himself, the birther movement continued to be a major issue and fodder for attack by DNC ads. And so, Trump finally succumbed to the pressure and said that he believes Obama was born in the country. Republican leaders approved of the move, with Speaker Ryan saying that Trump displayed "good judgement" by putting the issue to rest. But Democratic surrogates were having none of it- Senator Tammy Baldwin said that she "doesn't believe for a second" Trump actually had a change of mind, and labeled it as "a move done under pressure by campaign staffers and Republican leaders." Former Massachusets Governor Deval Patrick said that the announcemnet "changes nothing," and that "Trump is still a racist, his birther movement is still racist."

Following that, Republican running mate Chris Christie and Vice President Joe Biden, two big personalities and opinionated men, got into a public feud. It started when Biden lambasted Trump's announcement as "a bunch of malarkey" on live TV, adding that "Barack was always calm, but when I heard what that man kept saying about my friend, I just wanted to punch him in the face." Christie responded that Biden is "a foolish, violent bully who has no accomplishments and still sees fit to viciously attack a much more successful man." The Vice President, on his part, retorted in an MSNBC interview: "it's very rich of Governor Christie to call me a bully. Last time I checked, closing down an entire well-trafficked bridge because of your petty grudges is bullying. In fact, I believe that is actually a federal crime." This statement set off Christie, who blasted Biden and called him "a loser who accomplished nothing in his entire political career." President Obama, defending his friend, tweeted a long list of accomplishments and major roles played by Biden in law, the New Castle Council, the Senate and the Vice Presidency, and it became one of the most retweeted tweets that month.

Meanwhile, polling numbers show Trump steadily improving, following a fairly calm and relatively controversy-free September:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 49%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 45%  () (+2)
Undecided- 6% () (-1)
OBAMA +4

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 45%  () (-1)
Donald Trump- 38%  () (+3)
Jon Huntsman- 10%  () (-1)
Gary Johnson- 3%  () (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 4% () (-1)
OBAMA +7

Sad to see Adm Stavridis become an unashamed Moderate Hero in this universe

Always a fan of a Moderate Republican.... Go Huntsman!

September 21st, 2016

Fmr. Sec. Rice, Former Mayor Bloomberg endorse Jon Huntsman, giving him a boost ahead of 1st debate

 (+-0)
OBAMA +7

September 25th, 2016

POLLING UPDATE: Swing state map before the 1st debate

()

WASHINGTON, D.C. - with the first Presidential debate of the season just around the corner, polling is getting intense for the many swingstates that will decide the identity of the next President of the United States. Right now, it seems, incumbent Barack Obama has a good chance to win a historic third term in the office, but Republican Donald Trump does have a path if he manages to topple enough of the swingstates. Noteably, most pundits agree that Florida, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina, the swingstates he's currently closest to winning, are almost must-wins for Trump, but he also likely to win Nevada, New Hampshire and Utah, or improve his numbers in states like Colorado, Virginia, Michigan or Wisconsin (the latter two being heavy targets of his campaign), making his path difficult. Let's look at the current numbers in the close states:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Arizona)
Donald Trump- 40%
Barack Obama- 36%
Jon Huntsman- 15%
Gary Johnson- 3%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 6%
TRUMP +4

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Colorado)
Barack Obama- 42%
Donald Trump- 36%
Jon Huntsman- 14%
Gary Johnson- 4%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 4%
OBAMA +6

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Florida)
Barack Obama- 43%
Donald Trump- 41%
Jon Huntsman- 9%
Gary Johnson- 2%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 5%
OBAMA +2

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Georgia)
Donald Trump- 43%
Barack Obama- 38%
Jon Huntsman- 12%
Gary Johnson- 2%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 5%
TRUMP +5

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Indiana)
Donald Trump- 44%
Barack Obama- 38%
Jon Huntsman- 9%
Gary Johnson- 3%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 6%
TRUMP +6

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Iowa)
Donald Trump- 42%
Barack Obama- 41%
Jon Huntsman- 9%
Gary Johnson- 2%
Jill Stein- 1%
Undecided/other- 5%
TRUMP +1

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Maine)
Barack Obama- 43%
Donald Trump- 36%
Jon Huntsman- 12%
Gary Johnson- 2%
Jill Stein- 1%
Undecided/other- 6%
OBAMA +7

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Maine CD2)
Donald Trump- 42%
Barack Obama- 40%
Jon Huntsman- 8%
Gary Johnson- 2%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 8%
TRUMP +2

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Michigan)
Barack Obama- 43%
Donald Trump- 38%
Jon Huntsman- 11%
Gary Johnson- 1%
Jill Stein- 1%
Undecided/other- 6%
OBAMA +6

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Minnesota)
Barack Obama- 45%
Donald Trump- 37%
Jon Huntsman- 12%
Gary Johnson- 2%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 4%
OBAMA +8

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Nevada)
Barack Obama- 40%
Donald Trump- 37%
Jon Huntsman- 10%
Gary Johnson- 3%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 10%
OBAMA +3

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (New Hampshire)
Barack Obama- 41%
Donald Trump- 37%
Jon Huntsman- 13%
Gary Johnson- 4%
Jill Stein- 1%
Undecided/other- 4%
OBAMA +4

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (North Carolina)
Barack Obama- 42%
Donald Trump- 42%
Jon Huntsman- 11%
Gary Johnson- 1%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 4%
TIE

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Ohio)
Barack Obama- 43%
Donald Trump- 43%
Jon Huntsman- 8%
Gary Johnson- 2%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 4%
TIE

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Pennsylvania)
Barack Obama- 43%
Donald Trump- 38%
Jon Huntsman- 12%
Gary Johnson- 3%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 4%
OBAMA +5

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Utah)
Jon Huntsman- 30%
Donald Trump- 29%
Barack Obama- 25%
Gary Johnson- 6%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 10%
HUNTSMAN +1

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Virginia)
Barack Obama- 42%
Donald Trump- 35%
Jon Huntsman- 16%
Gary Johnson- 2%
Jill Stein- 0%
Undecided/other- 5%
OBAMA +7

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (Wisconsin)
Barack Obama- 41%
Donald Trump- 37%
Jon Huntsman- 13%
Gary Johnson- 2%
Jill Stein- 1%
Undecided/other- 6%
OBAMA +5

September 26th, 2016

Obama, Trump spar in 1st Presidential debate; incumbent President dubbed clear victor

()

HEMPSTEAD - The nominees of the two major parties, incumbent President Barack Obama and business mogul Donald Trump, gathered at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York for their first Presidential debate of the season, moderated by NBC anchor Lester Holt. It was a heated affair from the start, pitting the charismatic President who attempted to stay calm and 'no-drama' throughout the debate, against an aggressive, brash Trump who was eager to trample his opponent and climb back up in the polls, often even interrupting Obama and Holt.

While none of the other contenders, Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Jill Stein and, most noteably, Independent Jon Huntsman, could qualify for the debate, they all protested against the rules requiring more than 15% in polling averages for the qualification. Johnson and Stein, polling at 3% and 0% respectively, didn't get much attention, but Huntsman's campaign managed to stage a large protest in Hempstead. The former Utah Governor called the decision not to include him "silencing" and claimed that "this is just another sign that our political system is broken with polarization, allowing only two extreme voices to be heard." However, while Johnson and Stein protested the third-party system, Huntsman barely touched on the subject and merely called it "problematic".

Let us look at a few key moments from the debate:

()
Lester Holt: Mr. President, despite many in your own party declining to support it, you've continuesly defended the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement you've helped negotiate. They say it'll cause unemployment and even more outsourcing of jobs. Why are you still supporting it?
Barack Obama: Well, look, the answer is pretty simple. This is a deal I've been working on for quite some time, I believe in it, I support it. I won't stop supporting it just because some people said some things. You see, trade is one of our nation's most vital interests. It helps our economy, it boosts our growth, it decreases prices on many products, and it helps us retain our role as a world leader. Mr. Trump's rhetoric about the TPP is mere populism, and often blatant lies."
Donald Trump: "This is wrong on many, many levels, Mr. President. This President lies to you in your face, folks. This deal is a disaster, it's an absolute disaster. We're getting ripped off, absolutely ripped off, by all these nations, by Vietnam, by Mexoci, by China. They're taking all our job, all our jobs, and leaving our workers without employment. We need to put America first again, and President Obama is not going to do that. Only I will."
Barack Obama: "First of all, Mr. Trump, China is not part of this deal. In fact, by signing this deal we're tightening our strength in the pacific area. If we withdraw from the deal, we'll actually let China gain dominance. As for the..."
Donald Trump: "No, you've let China rip us off for years, you're just helping it gain dominance..."
Barack Obama: Excuse me, let me finish. As I was saying, the issue of jobs is much more complex than Mr. Trump is making it out to seem. Outsourcing is not the only cause of lost factory jobs, it's also automatation and modernization. Unfourtunately, this is just a trend we're seeing in history, where some jobs become less and less relevant, and I have a very detailed plan of trying to offset this. We need the state governments in West Virginia, in Ohio, in Kentucky and other states with lost jobs, like in the coal sector, to help us help them- pass job training bills, help other industries, like tourism and high tech, there are many things that can be done. In fact, we're already working on opening new jobs in the clean energy sector, which will also help us combat climate change- something that Mr. Trump claimed is a Chinese hoax, by the way..."
Donald Trump: "Wrong. That's wrong. Absolutely wrong. I did not say that."
Barack Obama: "...You did, Donald, that's documented. In the last eight years, we've managed to create many jobs and a strong economy, we've drastically decreased unemployment..."
Donald Trump: "This is a lie, you've lost many, many jobs, Mr. President, you're the greatest job loser ever."
Lester Holt: "Please, Mr. Trump, this is President Obama's 2 minutes."
Barack Obama: "...We've drastically decreased unemployment from a high of 10% during the 2008 recession to a low of below 5%. I intend to continue all this success during my third term."

()
Barack Obama: "Look, economists examined this Trump tax plan again and again. They examined it, and they concluded that it would increase the debt by 5 trillion dollars. I'm planning on combatting the debts, not by letting rich corporations and businessmen pay less in taxes, but by asking them to pay more, by creating jobs in high tech, in clean energy, and..."
Donald Trump: "You are going to approve one of the biggest tax cuts in history. You are going to approve one of the biggest tax increases in history. And you've just increased the debt. You've more than doubled it. Your regulations are a disaster, an absolute disaster, and they'll drive businesses out. Your EPA is killing so many jobs in the energy sectors, it's a disaster."
Barack Obama: "Mr. Trump, my EPA is working to help combat pollution, to help combat what an overwhelming majority of the scientific community believes is one of the biggest threats today. I know you don't believe in science and climbate change, but..."
Donald Trump: "Wrong. Wrong. Stop lying."
Barack Obama: "...But we cannot just let the current climate trends continue, or the sealevels will rise to levels which will wipe out entire cities. You want to get us out of the Paris Agreement I'm negotiating right now, which would not only hurt our global efforts to combat this impending disaster but hurt American credibility in the world..."
Donald Trump: "Wrong. You're hurting American credibility in the world. You're hurting it, your foreign policy has been a disaster..."
Lester Holt: "Mr. Trump, please let the President finish. Then you will be able to to..."
Donald Trump: "...An absolute disaster. You've botched Iraq, you're in fact the cause ISIS is rising right now. You've botched Ukraine, and Syria, and Lybia, and..."
Lester Holt: "Mr Trump, this is..."
Donald Trump: "...And now you're botching the war on ISIS."
Barack Obama: "Done ranting, Donald? Good. Folks, as you can see..."
Donald Trump: "I'm not ranting. I'm not ranting. I'm telling the American people the truth."
Barack Obama: "Now, folks, as you can see, Donald Trump doesn't have the temprament to be President. This is a man who can be provoked to an angry response by a tweet, who gets over an internet dispute over the smallest issue. I definitely will not sleep calmly knowing that he has his finger on the button. And let me just add, it's not only a matter ot temperament, it's a matter of respect for the American people. Donald called the people of Iowa stupid..."
Donald Trump: "Wrong. I never said that."
Barack Obama: "He called Mexican immigrants rapists and drug-dealers. Just one small example is how he called a woman in a beauty contest 'Miss Piggy' and 'Miss Housekeeping' just because she's a latina. This woman actually does have a name, Mr. Trump..."
Donald Trump: "Where did you find this? Where did you find this?"
Barack Obama: "Her name is Alicia Machado, and this is a well-documented and well-reported event. She actually became a U.S. citizen, and is going to vote against you this November."
Donald Trump: "Really? I don't care. Let me just tell you, you're attacking me with tremendously bad adveristments, but you're lying to the American people. When I say something... you know, somebody who's been very vicious to me, Rosie O'Donnell, I said very tough things to her, and I think everybody would agree that she deserves it and nobody feels sorry for her. I was going to say something very rough to President Obama, and I told myself, 'no, I can't do that'..."
Barack Obama: "Thank you so much, Donald, I'm overwhelmed with gratitude."
Donald Trump: "...Stop interrupting me. I told myself, 'it's inappropriate, it's not nice'. So you know, I'm not a bad person. As for my temperament, I actually think this is one of my best qualities, I have by far a better temprament than President Obama, who's shown himself to have a tremendously bad judgement. I have a winning temprament, I know how to win, so this is a great asset of mine, maybe the best."

---

Post-debate analysis and polls showed a bad picture for the Republican nominee. Pundits called his performance "disastrous" and "unhinged", while President Obama was praised for remaining calm and collected throughout the event, with a few jabs at Trump proving more effective than the businessman's own attacks. After a fairly calm September, the debate seems likely to inflict another blow on the Trump campaign, and probably relieved the Obama campaign which was getting extremely anxious about testy polling numbers.

Who do you think won the first Presidential debate?
Barack Obama- 57%
Donald Trump- 28%
Unsure- 15%

That was flawless. Obama was getting under my skin as if I was actually watching it play on TV!

October 2nd, 2016

REPORT: Obama administration "let Hezbollah off the hook" to reach Iran Deal

()

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Just two days before the Vice Presidential debate between Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ), a potential bombshell report was released by Politico. According to the article, the Obama administration obstructed efforts by a task force combatting Hezbollah's criminal, drug-dealing global enterprise in order to reach the nuclear deal with Iran. Hezbollah, a terrorist organization often targeting innocents in Israel and now embroiled in supporting the Assad regime in the Syrian civil war, is heavily supported by the Ayatollah regime with which the Obama administration worked hard to reach a deal to stall their nuclear program. Pundits called it "the potential October surprise".

In order to stem the firestorm, Press Secretary Josh Earnest quickly responded, saying that "President Obama believes Hezbollah is an illegitimate terrorist organization," however, the Iran Deal's importance for the security of the U.S. and its allies warranted "a temporary slowing of some efforts in order to reach a compromise", adding that the efforts are now continuing at full force. Senator Chuck Schumer, a pro-Israeli politician and the likely Senate Democratic leader after 2016, commented that the reports were "worrying" and that anything other than full opposition to Hezbollah is "a grave mistake".

Republicans were quick to jump on the wagon. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell attacked the Obama administration for its "incompetent and irresponsible foreign policy, failing to handle foreign crises one after the other", while Senator John McCain, a noteable politician who refused to endorse Trump and is reportedly leaning towards supporting Independent Jon Huntsman, added that "this is just another event where the Obama administration showed its dangerously naive outlook on the world". Huntsman himself called the reports "alarming", adding that they showed how "little respect" the Obama administration has for U.S. allies. Meanwhile, Republican nominee Donald Trump responded, of course, with a tweet:

()

But despite the scandal, polling numbers following a successful first debate show President Obama rising again, and widening the gap against Donald Trump:

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 51%  () (+2)
Donald Trump- 44%  () (-2)
Undecided- 5% () (+-0)
OBAMA +7

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 45%  () (+1)
Donald Trump- 35%  () (-2)
Jon Huntsman- 12%  () (+-0)
Gary Johnson- 3%  () (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 5% () (+1)
OBAMA +10

Very unexpected! Will be interesting to see what happens with the Access Hollywood tape now.

Wonder if we will get a Podesta Email type leak?

October 4th, 2016

Christie, Baldwin participate in VP debate;

()

FARMVILLE - The running mates of the two major party nominees gathered today for their first and only debate of the election season at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia. With a bombastic, brash Governor like Chris Christie facing a fiery progressive figure like Senator Tammy Baldwin, it was bound to be a fiery affair, and the bombshell report about the Obama administration's treatment of Hazbollah, coupled with the many controversies of Republican nominee Donald Trump, only added fire to the fuel, forcing both Chris Christie and Senator Baldwin to go on the defensive for their running mates. Thus, the clash had more ratings than any Vice Presidential debate before it, perhaps increasing the name recognition of the two Vice Presidential nominees ahead of possible White House bids in the future. Like in the previous debates, the nominees of the third parties, independent Retired Admiral James Stavridis, Libertarian businessman Austin Petersen and Green activist Ajamu Baraka couldn't qualify for the debate.

Here are a few highlights from the debate:

()
Chris Christie: "This administration has not only failed in foreign policy like, for example, the Carter administration. No, President Obama administered a nasty failure of a foreign policy- no real achievements, constant concessions to our enemies and rivals, and now we know that he also tried to actively obstruct Americans from combatting a terrorist organization! This administration was a disaster, folks, and if we reelect it, it will continue embarrassing us in the world stage and letting anti-American forces reign free."
Elaine Quijano: "Hold on a minute, Governor. You've just touched upon the subject of my next question: Senator Baldwin, a recent report from Politico details how the Obama administration slowed down efforts of a U.S. taskforce combatting Hezbollah's drug-dealing crime enterprise in order to reach a deal with Iran. Can you confirm this, and would you support such actions as Vice President?"
Tammy Baldwin: Thank you for the question. I certainly believe that we should combat Hezbollah and any other criminal or terrorist organization. We can do it by cooperating with other countries and allies on a global level, and making sure we don't let these terrorists take root in our own country. With that said, I am not sure any of us can objectively comment on such an issue when it comes to the intricacies of foreign policy without having being there. So..."
Chris Christie: "I'm sorry, Senator, but this is a load of phony statements. This President basically..."
Tammy Baldwin: "...So with that said, I believe that while we should combat Hezbollah with all our strength, we should also..."
Chris Christie: "...Basically colluded with a terror-supporting state and let it have free reign. It's disqualifying, absolutely unthinkable that we..."
Tammy Baldwin: "...Work for a solution to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapon, and this solution is not..."
Chris Christie: "...That we let this slip, we must not let a President who's fine with terrorists reigning free receive a third term!"
Elaine Quijano: "Governor Christie! Governor Christie! I will ask you to let the Senator speak. Let us restore order and civility to this debate!"
Tammy Baldwin: "Thank you, Elaine. What I was saying is, that while it's important that we combat Hezbollah with all our strength, it was also an issue of great importance that we stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The solution was not going to another costly, unnecessary war. The solution was diplomatic efforts and economic sanctions, and it worked. The Iran Deal stopped this imminent threat, and was a tremendous diplomatic achievement, which both UN officials and Israeli military leaders agree upon. So if the Hezbollah efforts were renewed, and they were, I cannot judge such a hard decision which lead to such a successful result."
Chris Christie: "There we go. There we go. Once again, we hear a robot of a politician repeating vague talking points. The fact of the matter is, the Iran Deal was a disaster, and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, agrees. It will lead to Iran obtaining nuclear weapons in a few years, and gives them the economic measures to keep funding terror. Barack Obama did all he could to reach it because he and Secretary Kerry wanted to look successful, and trampled our allies in the process."

()
Elaine Quijano: "Governor, until recent years, you were considered a popular, moderate politician. But this year, you were amongst the first to endorse a candidate with some very conservative views on issues like immigration. Why?"
Chris Christie: "I've endorsed Donald Trump, and I support him today with such enthusiasm, precisely because he's not extreme. He's a smart man, a man who understands the problems so many Americans have today. We're being ripped off by the entire world, and it's hurting our workers. Donald Trump is a very succeessful businessman, a man with great ideas. He's the only one who can fix it, and Make America Great Again."
Tammy Baldwin: "Saying Donald Trump is not extreme would be inaccurate, and accurate, at the same time. You want to know why? It's because he doesn't have an ideology, he doesn't have a plan. He keeps erratically changing his position without any coherence. This is a man who said that he's pro-choice, then that women should be punished for getting an abortion...."
Chris Christie: "There you go, you're repeating talking points again... This is just false, Donald Trump never said that. A Trump-Christie administration would never punish women..."
Tammy Baldwin: "But he did, in a CNN townhall. I'm not the one repeating talking points, Mr. Make America Great Again. Donald Trump attacked Mexican immigrants and called them rapists, he attacked Senator John McCain and said he's not a war hero because he was captured. For years, he doubted the fact that President Obama's an American just because he's African American. He took days to disavow the endorsement of David Duke, former Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan."
Chris Christie: "Look... These are just the personal attacks used by the Obama camapign, these are the only things they have because they can't explain the failure of this administration..."
Tammy Baldwin: "But why did Donald Trump said all that? You're avoiding the question. Why did he say that women should be punished, that Mexicans are rapists, that John McCain is not a war hero? Can you defend that?"*Slow, tragic airhorn in a Super Deluxe video*

---

Generally, the Vice Presidential debate was considered very contentious. While many pundits agreed that Chris Christie appeared like a brash bully and could not properly answer questions about Donald Trump's controversies, they also said that Senator Baldwin was clearly struggling with Christie's aggressive attacks, especially on the Hezbollah issue. This lead to polls showing many watchers undecided about the victor in the debate.

Who do you think won the Vice Presidential debate?
Tammy Baldwin- 38%
Chris Christie- 35%
Unsure- 27%

Love this TL so much

October 7th, 2016

()

There she is

this'll be fun.

October 8th, 2016

Leaked Access Hollywood tapes cause tsunami of bipartisan condemnations; Trump campaign in crisis mode

()

NEW YORK CITY - Following a bombshell leak to the Washington Post of a 2005 tape recorded in an "Access Hollywood Bus", the Trump campaign is scrambling to find its footing. In the tape, Trump is recorded having a conversation with host Billy Bush, in which he said extremely lewed comments about women while being married to current wife, Melannia Trump. Among other things, Trump admitted to making moves on a woman while "she was married", and bragged about sexually assaulting women, claiming that "when you're a star, they let you do that. You can do anything. Grab 'em by the pu**y".

The leak caused in uproar in the political world. Demoratic and independent politicians, of course, attacked Trump immediatel. President Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, was the first major political figure to respond, issuing a statement where he called the comments "disgusting" and "completely disqualifying for any man who wishes to be President". Former contender for the party's nomination, Hillary Clinton, launched a seething Tweeter attack on the "horrific" comments, calling Trump "utterly unfit of any man who wishes to represent the American people, about a half of which are women". Vice President Joe Biden said that the comments made him "sick in the stomach" and that he "couldn't imagine such a man becoming a President today". One of the more noteable comments came from Obama's running mate, Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), who stated that "one does not need to be a woman, or a father, , or a husband, or a brother, or a son, to understand why Donald Trump's words are sickening, disrespectful and a perfect symbol of what is still rotten in our society's treatment of women. This man cannot become President."

Meanwhile, Independent Conservative Jon Huntsman launched a fiery attack on Trump, saying that "the comments we've heared disgust me beyond words. As a father, a husband and a son, I feel sick imagining someone like Trump talking in that manner about the women I love so much. These are the words of an immoral man we cannot elect as President." Running mate James Stavridis agreed with Huntsman's sentiment, saying that "I felt boiling anger just listening to these comments. Trump can never be our President."

But backlash for the comments came from fellow Republicans too. Anti-Trump Republicans responded harshly, with former nominee Mitt Romney "hitting on married women and condoning assault shows an utter lack of a moral compass and corrupts our face to the world", Senator John McCain attacked Trump for his "deranged and disqualifying comments", Ohio Governor John Kasich called Trump's words "indefensible and sickening", and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush called them "reprehensible", stating that he will "not vote for Donald Trump in November".

The party itself entered damage-control mode, with Republican operatives treating the comments as the possible end of the Trump campaign and scrambling to try and save their downballot seats. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said that "No woman should ever be described in these terms or talked about in this manner. Ever." and announced that the national party will henceforth "suspend all support of Trump's campaign". House Speaker Paul Ryan shockingly rescinded his endorsement of Trump, stating that "I can no longer support, endorse or defend a Presidential campaign by a man who dares speaking about women in such terms. I urge House candidates to use their own judgement and do what's best for them." He also disinvited Trump from a campaign rally. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, while not explicitly disendorsing Trump, said that he can "no longer defend a man who can utter such comments".

Other Republican figures who announced that they no longer support Trump include Senators Kelly Ayotte, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, Lisa Murkowski, Dan Sullivan, Deb Fischer, Roy Blunt, John Boozman, Cory Gardener, Marco Rubio, Johnny Isakson, Mike Crapo, Mark Kirk, Joni Ernst, Jerry Moran, Rand Paul, Bill Cassidy, Dean Heller, Rob Portman, Pat Toomey, Tim Scott, Shelley Moore Capito, Lamar Alexander and Mike Lee, Governors Bill Haslam, Doug Ducey, Bruce Rauner, Rick Snyder, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez and Dennis Daugaard, Congressmen Joe Heck, Mia Love, Ann Wagner, Martha Roby, Bradley Byrne, Jason Chaffetz and others.

Quick polls conducted following the leak show a grim picture for Republicans, and good news for both Obama and Huntsman.

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump (General)
Barack Obama- 53%  () (+2)
Donald Trump- 39%  () (-5)
Undecided- 8%  () (+3)
OBAMA +14

Barack Obama vs Donald Trump vs Jon Huntsman vs Gary Johnson vs Jill Stein (General)
Barack Obama- 46%  () (+1)
Donald Trump- 31%  () (-4)
Jon Huntsman- 14%  () (+2)
Gary Johnson- 3%  () (+-0)
Jill Stein- 0%  () (+-0)
Other/Undecided- 6% () (+1)
OBAMA +15

Amongst calls for him to drop out and let Governor Chris Christie (who remained mum) replace him on the ticket, Donald Trump was defiant:

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That was such a bad day.

My prediction is that Huntsman puts the election to the House.

Hmm.... Interesting

On temporary hiatus due to exams and personal issues (well, a breakup). I'll return to this Soon™.

Well that guy is a fool for breaking up with you, anyway take your time and come back to this when you're able to, it's been a great TL. :)

I hope this continues soon. One of the best TLs here. :)

Once I'm done with the exams, it definitely will! :) Thanks!

October 9th, 2016

Obama, Trump compete in 2nd Presidential debate in the shadow of leaked tapes

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ST. LOUIS - The second Presidential debate of the season, a town-hall style event in Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri, was considered likely to be very contentious, even outright hostile, from the start. After all, it pitted Donald Trump, the larger-than-life businessman and reality TV star nominated by the Republican party, in the same arena as the charismatic President Barack Obama, who has a long history with Trump, who famously questioned the fact of his birth in the U.S. and thus the very legitimacy of his Presidency.

But when the tapes leaked where Trump says women allow you to "gram 'em by the pu**y" when you're a star, and a firestorm of condemnations from accross the political spectrum ensued, the debate became that much more fateful for the Trump campaign. At first, sources in the RNC claimed that Trump will announce he's not attending, but Trump denied that in a tweet and promised he will "show all the haters and establishment losers that we're going to #MAGA despite their attempts to overthrow me!"

Let's look at several key debate moments:

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Andersoon Cooper: "...The question from Patrice was about ‘Are you both modeling positive and appropriate behaviors for today's youth?’ We received a lot of questions online, Mr. Trump, about the tape that was released on Friday, as you can imagine. You called what you said ‘locker room banter’. You described kissing women without consent, grabbing their genitals. That is sexual assault. You bragged that you have sexually assaulted women. Do you understand that?"
Donald Trump: "No, I didn't say that at all. I don't think you undrstood what I said. This was locker room talk, I'm not proud of it and I apologized to my family, but this was locker room talk. You know, you can see carnage and, frankly, horrible things happening all over the world, with ISIS chopping off people's heads. Terrible things. The world is a mess- the world is an angry place- and I'm going to keep America safe. I'm going to beat the hell out of ISIS."
Andersoon Cooper: "Mr. Trump, the question was about..."
Donald Trump: "...So I'm not proud of it, I'm not happy about it, but this was locker room talk."
Andersoon Cooper: "So what you said on that bus 11 years ago does not describe the way you treated women? You never actually tried to grope or kiss women without their consent?
Donald Trump: "No. No, I never did that. This was locker room talk, I have great respect for women. No one has more repsect for women than I do, certainly not this President. There are people pouring into our country from the Middle East, some of them bad people, and we need to keep out nation safe. We’re gonna make America safe again, we’re gonna make America great again but we’re gonna make America safe again and we’re gonna make America wealthy again. Because we need to rebuild our wealth."
Andersoon Cooper: "Thank you. President Obama, do you want to respond?"
Barack Obama: "You know, like everyone else, I've listened to these tapes and thought about them in the last 48 hours. I've listened to Republican officials, from the party's congressial leaders to Governors and former officeholders. I think, from all this, we can only reach one conclusion, which was frankly apparent for a while now. Donald Trump is not fit to serve as President. His morales, his values, aren't American. He speaks about Mexican immigrants in derogatory terms. He insults Muslims, disabled Americans, veterans like John McCain, my former opponent who I have great respect and admiration for. You know, with former Republican nominees, we disagreed on principals, on policy, but now... now, it's more than that. After this tape was leaked... well, it should be the last straw, you know? Speaking about women in these foul terms, making light of sexual assault- it's not someone I'd want in my President. Not at all. I wouldn't want my daughters to grow up in a country governed by such a man. So I think that this election is about more than policy- it's about values. It's about our spirit as an American nation, a united, proud nation that treats its citizens respectfully, regardless of gender, religion, race or sexual orientation."
Martha Raddatz: "Please hold the applause.
Donald Trump: "Can I respond to that? You speak about morale, Mr. President? About values? Your Secretary of State, she endangered our country's secrets with her use of a private email server, her husband was very abusive to women and she protected him and hurt these women..."
Barack Obama: "Last I checked, Donald, I'm not Hillary Clinton, but you are Donald Trump. The same one who bragged about grabbing and kissing women without their consent."
Donald Trump: "This was locker room talk. I told you this was locker room talk. And you let Hezbollah off the hook, you let ISIS rampage in the Middle East... You basically supported terrorists. Only I'll make America safe again."
Barack Obama: "There you go again, Donald. There you go, dodging the big question, dodging your shameful behaviour and deflecting by tactics of fear. These tacticsof fear, Donald, are tactics used by authoritatian despots, not leaders in a democratic country. But you're not a leader, and shouldn't be a leader."

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Anderson Cooper: "We have one more question from Ken Bone about energy policy."
Ken Bone: "What steps will your energy policy take to meet our energy needs, while at the same time remaining environmentally-friendly and minimizing job loss for fossil power plant workers?"
Donald Trump: "Such a great question.Such a great question because energy is under siege by the Obama administration. Under absolute siege. The EPA, Environmental Protection Agency, is killing these energy companies. It's killing coal, it's killing energy, and foreign companies are coming in and buying our plants. Not good. We will remove restrictions and revive the coal industry, so that great places like West Virginia, or places like Ohio, which is phenomenal, or places like Pennsylvania, can start getting jobs again. Believe me, under a Trump administration we'll see coal mines popping up everywhere. It'll be tremendous. Right now, the EPA is so restrictive that they are putting our energy companies out of business. It's a disgrace. It’s an absolute disgrace."
Barack Obama: "Look, this is a real problem. It's something we've seen throughout history again and again- industries are dying as technology advances, and right now we're seeing coal being replaced by other, more effective resources, jobs being harmed by automation. My administration has done our best to help these places, to combat unemployment- and look at the numbers, it's been working. We've revived the auto industry in Detroit, for example, and restored thousands of jobs. But it's not enough. I'm aware that it's not enough. And know that- under Trump, it'll only grow worse. What we need to do is not to cling to dying hopes, we need to go forawrd, and not leave anyone behind. We will implement job training programs in West Virginia, in Ohio, in Pennsylvania. We will raise new industries like clean, alternative energies that help our environment, like tourism- West Virginia is such a beautiful place, for example. So we can help, and we will. We just need to work with the people."
Martha Raddatz: "We sneak in one more question from Karl Becker."
Karl Becker: "My question to both of you is, regardless of the current rhetoric, would either of you name one positive thing that you respect in one another?"
Barack Obama: "That's a very important question, Karl, thank you. Well, I think that one thing I admire about Donald is that he fights hard. He does not quit, as we've seen in the last few days. He decided that he wants to be President, and he ran for President, and he beat more than a dozen opponents who are experienced politicians, and now he keeps fighting. I can respect that, though I do not agree with anything he's fighting for."
Donald Trump: "Well, what I can say about the President... he doesn't let people control him. He's very independent- he ran in 2008 despite being a one-term Senator and despite the establishment supporting Hillary Clinton... now he's running again, despite many people telling him to step aside for her. He also has beautiful, accomplished children. I respect that too."

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Overall, the debate was considered yet another solid victory for President Obama. Its first half was dominated by the Access Hollywood tapes and Trump tried to deflect them and talk about other issues like terror or immigration, but Obama's labeling of "fear tactics", as well as the insistence of the moderators, made it harder for him, and it looked like Trump was losing his balance several times. Like in the previous debate, the President was able to articulate his policy positions and defend them effectively, though was seen by some viewers as snide.

Who do you think won the second Presidential debate?
Barack Obama- 54%
Donald Trump- 35%
Unsure- 11%

It's back!!!