Talk Elections

Marco Rubio edges out Trump and Cruz in the Republican primaries to face off against Hillary Clinton in the general. Who wins, and what does the map look like?

Any mandated VPs or is it our choice?

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Your choice.

This is probably my personal prediction as well, although I think ME-02 may have went for Rubio and MN/PA/NV really could've gone either way.

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324: Marco Rubio/Condoleezza Rice - 50.4%
214: Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren - 43.0%

What is your obsession with Wisconsin being more democratic than Minnesota?

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It's an open question whether Putin actually backs Rubio, but I imagine his dislike of Hillary leads him to do so. Everything else remains the same, including the Comey letter.

Rubio/Portman 49.99% 348 EV
Clinton/Kaine 43.03% 190 EV

Closest states are Virginia, Minnesota, Nevada and ME-1.

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Marco Rubio | Scott Walker 275 EV 49% PV
Hillary Clinton | Tim Kaine 263 EV 45% PV

Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, New Hampshire, and ME 2nd are all decided by less than 5%. Rubio does worse in Iowa and Ohio, but still wins them none the less.

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Clinton/Kaine
Rubio/Kasich

Couldn't ask for a more 1988 party-flip scenario if you tried, especially if Hillary had run her actual planned campaign, and not the ill-advised switch to account for Trump. Starring Arizona as the Maryland that really had no business not flipping.

Okay, fine, Montana and Missouri were a bit facetious.

But seriously, this match-up is literally Bush vs Miracle Mike all over again. The rest is just what a 7 point victory was projected to be.

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Marco Rubio: 270, 47.12%

Hillary Clinton: 268, 47.95%

Why would Wisconsin go Republican before Iowa?

Flukes can happen, both were really close

I am confusion

Rubio wins.

What is this madness...

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Rubio/Walker 322
Clinton/Kaine 216

Facts, trends, and BRTD.

Rubio is an awful candidate, Clinton wins

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Rubio-Ayotte: 278
Clinton-Kaine: 260

I thought Clinton was unbeatable against those pesky Republicans

I don’t think Ayotte would be the running mate with Rubio. I think the Republicans would want a True Believer and not a pro-choice running mate.

If Rubio's glass jaw doesn't shatter:

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Rubio/Kasich: 276 EV
Clinton/Kaine: 262 EV

Popular vote is anyone's guess, Rubio, IMHO eeks it out here. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina are all decided by less than 3%. Hillary does better in Ohio and Iowa than OTL, but still loses them by 5% or more. She also loses Florida by a bigger margin.

If Hillary shatters the glass ceiling and the glass jaw:

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Clinton/Kaine: 285 EV
Rubio/Kasich: 253 EV

She wins the popular vote by around the same margin that she did against Trump. As is the case with a Rubio victory, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina are all decided by less than 3% but in this case so are Iowa and Maine's Second District, which she wins, and Ohio. Florida goes unchanged from the Rubio victory scenario. I know a lot of people think or thought Hillary had a landslide in the bag, but even in 2015 and 2016 I didn't think it was the case. She's no Bill Clinton or Barack Obama when it comes to campaigning and it's hard for a party to win a 3rd consecutive election. The only time against Trump that I thought she'd meet or exceed Obama's 2012 margin of victory was after the access Hollywood tape came out, but once the Comey letter came out, that changed.

fair point, but ayotte is pro life.

This

Marco Rubio: 312 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton: 226 electoral votes

CO, MN and VA are the closest states.

I would flip WI as only 33 % of Wisconsinites thought Clinton was honest and trustworthy. With numbers like that, you don’t win WI as a Democrat.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/wisconsin/president

WI would've been possible as well.