Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Past Election What-ifs (US) => Topic started by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on August 17, 2017, 03:12:13 pm



Title: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on August 17, 2017, 03:12:13 pm
Marco Rubio edges out Trump and Cruz in the Republican primaries to face off against Hillary Clinton in the general. Who wins, and what does the map look like?


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Not_A_Man on August 17, 2017, 03:26:51 pm
Marco Rubio edges out Trump and Cruz in the Republican primaries to face off against Hillary Clinton in the general. Who wins, and what does the map look like?


Any mandated VPs or is it our choice?


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: RINO Tom on August 17, 2017, 03:28:33 pm
()


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on August 17, 2017, 03:32:41 pm
Marco Rubio edges out Trump and Cruz in the Republican primaries to face off against Hillary Clinton in the general. Who wins, and what does the map look like?


Any mandated VPs or is it our choice?

Your choice.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on August 17, 2017, 03:35:22 pm

This is probably my personal prediction as well, although I think ME-02 may have went for Rubio and MN/PA/NV really could've gone either way.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Kingpoleon on August 17, 2017, 03:41:15 pm
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324: Marco Rubio/Condoleezza Rice - 50.4%
214: Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren - 43.0%


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Bernie Sanders would be a Menshevik in Europe on August 17, 2017, 04:10:01 pm
()
324: Marco Rubio/Condoleezza Rice - 50.4%
214: Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren - 43.0%
What is your obsession with Wisconsin being more democratic than Minnesota?


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: NewYorkExpress on August 17, 2017, 04:20:33 pm
()

It's an open question whether Putin actually backs Rubio, but I imagine his dislike of Hillary leads him to do so. Everything else remains the same, including the Comey letter.

Rubio/Portman 49.99% 348 EV
Clinton/Kaine 43.03% 190 EV

Closest states are Virginia, Minnesota, Nevada and ME-1.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: dw93 on September 11, 2017, 09:11:07 pm
()

Marco Rubio | Scott Walker 275 EV 49% PV
Hillary Clinton | Tim Kaine 263 EV 45% PV

Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, New Hampshire, and ME 2nd are all decided by less than 5%. Rubio does worse in Iowa and Ohio, but still wins them none the less.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: L.D. Smith on September 17, 2017, 11:29:33 pm
()

Clinton/Kaine
Rubio/Kasich

Couldn't ask for a more 1988 party-flip scenario if you tried, especially if Hillary had run her actual planned campaign, and not the ill-advised switch to account for Trump. Starring Arizona as the Maryland that really had no business not flipping.



Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: FDB on September 19, 2017, 01:52:26 pm

What


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: L.D. Smith on September 19, 2017, 06:28:14 pm

Okay, fine, Montana and Missouri were a bit facetious.

But seriously, this match-up is literally Bush vs Miracle Mike all over again. The rest is just what a 7 point victory was projected to be.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: The Govanah Jake on September 19, 2017, 06:38:54 pm
()

Marco Rubio: 270, 47.12%

Hillary Clinton: 268, 47.95%


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong on September 21, 2017, 08:45:18 pm
()
Hillary 279
Marco 259


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: The Govanah Jake on September 21, 2017, 08:49:57 pm

Why would Wisconsin go Republican before Iowa?


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong on September 21, 2017, 11:23:47 pm
Flukes can happen, both were really close


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: HomestarSB9 on September 22, 2017, 03:06:45 pm
BEST CASE CLINTON SCENARIO
()

Hillary Clinton - 420 EVs
Marco Rubio - 118 EVs

BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR RUBIO
()

Marco Rubio - 279 EVs
Hillary Clinton - 259 EVs

MOST LIKELY
()

Hillary Clinton - 359 EVs
Marco Rubio - 179 EVs


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Kamala on September 22, 2017, 03:46:49 pm
I am confusion


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Beet on September 22, 2017, 03:59:25 pm
Rubio wins.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: The Govanah Jake on September 22, 2017, 04:15:24 pm
BEST CASE CLINTON SCENARIO
()

Hillary Clinton - 420 EVs
Marco Rubio - 118 EVs

BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR RUBIO
()

Marco Rubio - 279 EVs
Hillary Clinton - 259 EVs

MOST LIKELY
()

Hillary Clinton - 359 EVs
Marco Rubio - 179 EVs

What is this madness...


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Old School Republican on September 22, 2017, 04:28:51 pm
()

Rubio/Walker 322
Clinton/Kaine 216





Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: respect mah majoritah! on September 22, 2017, 04:53:00 pm


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Kingpoleon on September 25, 2017, 07:41:27 pm
()
324: Marco Rubio/Condoleezza Rice - 50.4%
214: Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren - 43.0%
What is your obsession with Wisconsin being more democratic than Minnesota?
Facts, trends, and BRTD.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: AtorBoltox on September 26, 2017, 11:28:13 pm
Rubio is an awful candidate, Clinton wins


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: SunriseAroundTheWorld on September 27, 2017, 08:02:17 am
()

Rubio-Ayotte: 278
Clinton-Kaine: 260


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on September 27, 2017, 11:23:30 am
I thought Clinton was unbeatable against those pesky Republicans


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Kamala on September 27, 2017, 12:11:17 pm
I donít think Ayotte would be the running mate with Rubio. I think the Republicans would want a True Believer and not a pro-choice running mate.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: dw93 on September 27, 2017, 12:31:47 pm
If Rubio's glass jaw doesn't shatter:

()

Rubio/Kasich: 276 EV
Clinton/Kaine: 262 EV

Popular vote is anyone's guess, Rubio, IMHO eeks it out here. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina are all decided by less than 3%. Hillary does better in Ohio and Iowa than OTL, but still loses them by 5% or more. She also loses Florida by a bigger margin.

If Hillary shatters the glass ceiling and the glass jaw:

()

Clinton/Kaine: 285 EV
Rubio/Kasich: 253 EV

She wins the popular vote by around the same margin that she did against Trump. As is the case with a Rubio victory, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Virginia, and North Carolina are all decided by less than 3% but in this case so are Iowa and Maine's Second District, which she wins, and Ohio. Florida goes unchanged from the Rubio victory scenario. I know a lot of people think or thought Hillary had a landslide in the bag, but even in 2015 and 2016 I didn't think it was the case. She's no Bill Clinton or Barack Obama when it comes to campaigning and it's hard for a party to win a 3rd consecutive election. The only time against Trump that I thought she'd meet or exceed Obama's 2012 margin of victory was after the access Hollywood tape came out, but once the Comey letter came out, that changed.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: SunriseAroundTheWorld on September 27, 2017, 12:34:20 pm
I donít think Ayotte would be the running mate with Rubio. I think the Republicans would want a True Believer and not a pro-choice running mate.

fair point, but ayotte is pro life.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: FDB on September 27, 2017, 01:00:45 pm
()
324: Marco Rubio/Condoleezza Rice - 50.4%
214: Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren - 43.0%

Flip Wisconsin and you got yourself a good map.


Title: Re: 2016: Fmr. SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Post by: Lechasseur on October 01, 2017, 10:10:07 am
Rubio is an awful candidate, Clinton wins

This