Talk Elections

Va. Hopeful Hopes to Ride Governor's Wave

By BOB LEWIS
The Associated Press
Sunday, July 31, 2005; 7:43 PM

RICHMOND, Va. -- He's a Democrat who was elected in a heavily Republican state with a promise not to raise taxes _ then went ahead and raised them. Even so, Gov. Mark R. Warner is golden and his lieutenant governor hopes their association will help carry him to victory in this year's gubernatorial race.

Warner, a potential 2008 presidential contender, has a statewide job approval rating of 74 percent, a new poll shows. The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. survey also found that 57 percent of its respondents actually approved of the $1.4 billion tax increase Warner threaded through the overwhelmingly Republican Legislature.
   

Virginia is the only state that denies its governors consecutive terms, and the race for Warner's successor pits Democratic Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine against Republican Jerry W. Kilgore, a former attorney general.

"If Kaine wins, it's going to be because people want to give Mark Warner a second term and they view electing Tim Kaine as the only way to do that," said Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

However, the poll showed 38 percent favored Kaine to 37 percent for Kilgore. A margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points makes them about even, although the same poll nearly a year ago showed Kaine trailing Kilgore by 5 points. Russ Potts, a Republican state senator running as an independent, was the choice of 9 percent, apparently draining support from Kilgore.

Kilgore disputes the poll and rejects the notion that Warner provides his opponent a boost.

"The voters are basing their decision upon the candidates for governor this year," Kilgore said.

But he also underscored his own ties to Warner.

"I've agreed with the governor on many, many issues," Kilgore said. "We do agree on some important issues that I believe helped Mark Warner win his governor's race to begin with: gun control, capital punishment, some of the social issues."

Kaine constantly defines himself as Warner's partner and heir, touting the fiscal management of a state that battled a $6 billion budget shortfall three years ago and how has a $544 million surplus. "Mark and I" and "Warner-Kaine administration" litter his campaign speeches, interviews and publications. He has dubbed his upcoming round of campaign stops the "Building On Success Tour."

"I know the governor's very energized about making the case that we've been going the right way and there's no cause to turn around," Kaine said.

Warner plans to make that case more forcefully starting Labor Day."I anticipate a busy fall on the political front, campaigning for Tim," he said in an interview.

Warner is becoming more aggressive about what he considers to be his legacy: budget reforms that he says were necessary to protect the state's perfect bond rating and to guarantee sufficient money public education, health care for the poor and aged, public safety and the federally mandated cleanup of the Chesapeake Bay.
   

He and Kaine have criticized Kilgore for opposing last year's tax package and the benefits that the poll suggests Virginians support. Kilgore counters that the surplus from robust economic growth proves he was right and the tax increase was not necessary.

Still, Warner's wide acclaim is based on compromising with Republicans, not defying them. As he assesses his chances for his party's 2008 presidential nomination, Warner has toured the nation urging Democrats to reclaim "the sensible center" and become competitive again in the South.

His popularity also derives from hundreds of luncheons and forums in remote communities governors rarely visit, particularly in the final semester of their terms.

"In rural Virginia, people took a chance on me. They saw this high-tech guy from Alexandria and I said I wouldn't forget them and I'd work my hardest to make sure their kids got a fair shake, and I've tried to honor that," Warner said.

On one trip this summer, Warner used a helicopter to visit three farming communities in about six hours.

At an unscheduled stop to buy a fresh shirt at a store in South Boston, he met Pam Trombley, who appealed for more money for her daughter's school. Warner wrote her name and phone number on a scrap of paper, brought it back to Richmond and told his staff to look into her appeal.

"Part of this is just showing up and reporting back," Warner said.

Wow, I think this was the first poll that had Kaine leading (probably thanks to Potts' rise in the polls).  I know this is only one poll, but I think that this race should be downgraded from Lean Kilgore to tossup.

This is the only poll showing this but it is a Mason-Dixon.  Tough decision.

both of these candidates are just awful.

it looks like potts is teh only way to go.

Out of curiosity, what defines "awful" for you?  You seem to apply it quite liberally and have never reallly explained.

Everyone besides Swift, Chafee, that other lady that was in his profile and for some reason her name has slipped my mind...

there is no set definition for 'awful'.

for example someone can be 'awful' for vetoeing an emergency contraception bill and having a name best fit for a dog (ex mitt romney)

on the other hand, someone can also be awful for supporting late term abortions and just being all around crazy (ex barbara boxer)

keystone phil, that other woman was shannon obrien.

Well, OK, but why specifically are Mr. Kaine and Mr. Kilgore "horrible people" in your book?

kilgore is a gay hating rightie.

kain isnt as awful as he is inept/

After reading around, I am led to believe that Kilgore v. Kaine is Pot v. Kettle.  I'd support Potts if I lived in VA.

Oh, I forgot about O'Brien. I was thinking of Maureen Dowd.

*Shakes head in disapproval*

^^^^^^

Warner, a man with a potentially bright political future if he plays his card right, would be amiss to tie himself to Kaine's sinking ship.  If I'm Warner I stay away from this race as much as possible.

No offense, but that's dumb. Warner should do everything he can to help get Kaine elected. Kaine has been a part of Warner's winning governorship and that should not be ignored. Kaine would be a very good governor for the state.  Kilgore would bring the state back to the Gilmore years. 

BTW, why do you think Kaine is on a sinking ship? This race is a tossup and Kaine can definitely win. Be a little more optimistic and don't assume that the Republicans will win. Kilgore is a horrible candidate.

Kaine's shot at victory is not very good. Mason Dixon is almost never wrong, but when all the polls say not close, I'd tend to trust them over even a really, really good pollster.

And we all that the winner is determined by polls 4 months before the race.

It will be very close either way.

I wouldn't count on it, but put this one in fantasy land with OH-2 if you want.

Will do.

I realize Kilgore has an advantage in this race by the mere fact that he happens to be a Republican, but I doubt whether he really will win this race in the end.  This race will be decided on two factors -whether Virginians desire to symbolically have Mark Warner elected to a second term by electing his successor Tim Kaine to the governorship; and on whether they place investing in such public goods like education, transportation, health care, and public safety over lowering taxes.  Polls have shown that Virginians -by a significant margin- support the tax increases enacted by the legislature last year, not to mention Mark Warner is even more popular than George Allen was towards the end of his tenure in office.  The wild card here is the rising property taxes that have come about as a result of development, especially in northern Virginia -however, that is mainly a local government issue, and one which county boards throughout northern Virginia have to deal with themselves. 

Given the support for the tax increases and the subsequent investment by the state into education, and other government programs and commitments, as well as Mark Warner's enormous popularity throughout the state, Tim Kaine is well-placed to win the governor's mansion, despite the traditionally Republican tilt of the state at large.  Indeed, it is for these reasons that I intend to vote for him -while advocating support for various programs, he does outline a plan for how to support them (namely by supporting the tax increases passed by the legislature), which shows he is clearly more fiscally responsible than his rival Jerry Kilgore, who, while he advocates cutting taxes in the Republican tradition, nonetheless supports many of the same programs and investments that Mark Warner and Tim Kaine support.  He promises the moon, but does not outline how he would pay for it. 

As of now, this race is too close to call (slightly leaning Kilgore) but any poll showing Kaine ahead ought to be very encouraging for Democrats and I hope Kaine wins

Dave

Kaine is like Warner's cheap hand-me-down. No legs.

Yet you continue to predict wins by Democrats in Minnesota, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, etc., nearly 16 months ahead?

I haven't made any predictions, homey.

Where do you get this stuff?