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Title: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Virginiá on March 12, 2017, 02:54:10 PM https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/purple-america-has-all-but-disappeared/
Quote More than 61 percent of voters cast ballots in counties that gave either Clinton or Trump at least 60 percent of the major-party vote last November. That’s up from 50 percent of voters who lived in such counties in 2012 and 39 percent in 1992 — an accelerating trend that confirms that America’s political fabric, geographically, is tearing apart. Of the nation’s 3,113 counties (or county equivalents), just 303 were decided by single-digit margins — less than 10 percent. In contrast, 1,096 counties fit that description in 1992, even though that election featured a wider national spread.1 During the same period, the number of extreme landslide counties — those decided by margins exceeding 50 percentage points — exploded from 93 to 1,196, or over a third of the nation’s counties. Quote The electorate’s move toward single-party geographic enclaves has been particularly pronounced at the extremes. Between 1992 and 2016, the share of voters living in extreme landslide counties quintupled from 4 percent to 21 percent. () () - Not that this trend hasn't been noticed before, but sometimes graphs/maps like those can really put it in a whole new light. One has to wonder what this means for the future of American politics. This level of polarization hasn't been seen in at least over a hundred years, and even back then, considering the lack of relevant data, the levels we are experiencing today might be the worst in American history for all we know. Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Virginiá on March 12, 2017, 03:18:13 PM I think it's a tad disingenuous that they used county maps of 1992 and 1996 to compare to modern elections. Uhh.. what? They are showing a trend, and used maps for every presidential election since then. Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 13, 2017, 12:06:57 AM Yup, pretty much confirms what we already knew.
Something has gone terribly wrong. Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Mr. Morden on March 13, 2017, 01:21:53 AM 2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization. These are county maps, not CD maps. So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering? The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next. Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Reaganfan on March 13, 2017, 05:52:06 AM White America fled to the GOP. That's what those maps show. With the exception of Bill Clinton (Who ran as a "centrist Democrat" for welfare reform and received FOP police endorsements for his tough on crime stances) most of the white electorate has been Reagan's America for nearly 40 years.
Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Blue3 on March 13, 2017, 02:50:58 PM Now I'd be interested to see a map on all the other counties... probably be easier to read!
2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization. These are county maps, not CD maps. So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering? The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next. Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: scutosaurus on March 13, 2017, 07:26:00 PM 2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization. These are county maps, not CD maps. So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering? The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next. Gerrymandering contributes to polorazation Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Blue3 on March 13, 2017, 07:53:26 PM 2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization. These are county maps, not CD maps. So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering? The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next. Gerrymandering contributes to polorazation But overall, I say this article is not about gerrymandering. Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Mr. Morden on March 13, 2017, 08:05:42 PM 2000 to 2008 dosent seem to change all that much tbh. It's not until the gerrymandering kicked in after 2008 did we see such extreme polarization. These are county maps, not CD maps. So how would it be impacted by gerrymandering? The county boundaries don't change from one decade to the next. Gerrymandering contributes to polorazation That seems silly. Living in a heavily Republican district or a heavily Democratic district is going to make people vote for a different presidential candidate than they would if they lived at the exact same address but their CD boundary lines were drawn differently, so that their CD was more competitive? Why would that be the case, especially when (aside from ME and NE) presidential electoral votes are allocated at the state level? For how many voters does the identity of their local member of Congress even enter their mind when they're voting for president? Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Dr. MB on March 13, 2017, 08:31:44 PM https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/purple-america-has-all-but-disappeared/ Quote More than 61 percent of voters cast ballots in counties that gave either Clinton or Trump at least 60 percent of the major-party vote last November. That’s up from 50 percent of voters who lived in such counties in 2012 and 39 percent in 1992 — an accelerating trend that confirms that America’s political fabric, geographically, is tearing apart. Of the nation’s 3,113 counties (or county equivalents), just 303 were decided by single-digit margins — less than 10 percent. In contrast, 1,096 counties fit that description in 1992, even though that election featured a wider national spread.1 During the same period, the number of extreme landslide counties — those decided by margins exceeding 50 percentage points — exploded from 93 to 1,196, or over a third of the nation’s counties. Quote The electorate’s move toward single-party geographic enclaves has been particularly pronounced at the extremes. Between 1992 and 2016, the share of voters living in extreme landslide counties quintupled from 4 percent to 21 percent. () () - Not that this trend hasn't been noticed before, but sometimes graphs/maps like those can really put it in a whole new light. One has to wonder what this means for the future of American politics. This level of polarization hasn't been seen in at least over a hundred years, and even back then, considering the lack of relevant data, the levels we are experiencing today might be the worst in American history for all we know. Also, this article is misleading because it fails to mention Perot's campaigns in 1992 and 96, which took away voters from both parties. Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: MarkD on March 13, 2017, 10:47:21 PM Gerrymandering of congressional districts does not explain why the U. S. Senate has also become just as polarized as the U. S. House. In both chambers, the political species known as "liberal Republicans" and "conservative Democrats" have become extinct, and the numbers of moderates in both parties is also shrinking. The increased polarization of politics within Congress over the past 40 years is commensurate with the increased polarization of the voters as reflected in these maps.
Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Nyvin on March 17, 2017, 03:49:31 PM The maps more or less visualize the growing gaps between two different political rivalries:
1. White vs Non-White 2. Urban vs Rural Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on March 17, 2017, 04:35:21 PM I wonder how the polarization of rural counties trends with population growth/decline and real income per capita in those counties.
Also, what was up with the arid western plains in Nebraska in 1992 that wasn't happening anywhere else? Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Young Conservative on March 22, 2017, 04:57:06 PM I miss purple America...
Title: Re: 538: Purple America Has All But Disappeared Post by: Blackacre on March 22, 2017, 05:02:39 PM I miss purple America... We all do. Hopefully it'll come back eventually |