Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: Non Swing Voter on February 12, 2017, 04:33:34 PM



Title: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Non Swing Voter on February 12, 2017, 04:33:34 PM
[removed by request]


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 04:37:15 PM
No. Wait until 2030s.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 04:41:13 PM
Also, why would the GOP moderate on immigration? Suicide?


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:00:43 PM

2024 will be the age generation tipping point where millennials and later are undoubtedly the biggest generation to vote.

Remember, people who are slightly older than millennials - those who are around 35-45 now - are almost as liberal as millennials on social issues.  So you couple them with the millennial generation and you have a very clear majority of the electorate.

-Meaningless statistic. What are you expecting? 1896-type coalitional realignment, 1932-type ideological realignment, or 60s chaos?


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 12, 2017, 05:02:25 PM
2024 will be the age generation tipping point where millennials and later are undoubtedly the biggest generation to vote.

Remember, people who are slightly older than millennials - those who are around 35-45 now - are almost as liberal as millennials on social issues.  So you couple them with the millennial generation and you have a very clear majority of the electorate.

By 2024 EHarding will have perfected a game-changing invention to keep the GOP in power: reanimate the dead and usher them to the voting booths in November. I hear the undead are severely conservative nationalists.

[insert Illinois dead voter joke by EHarding]


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:04:06 PM
Also, why would the GOP moderate on immigration? Suicide?

Because there will be too much political power in swing states with large hispanic populations by then...  particularly Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona... and maybe Texas...

Republicans will need to fight for some of these states unless they make up ground somewhere else... and the upper midwest is not enough if they lose Florida and Arizona.

-Why would the GOP want to give Hispanics more power in that case? In any case,
()

and FL has trended R three out of the past four elections.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 12, 2017, 05:07:22 PM
Why would Democrats be perpetually losing Pennsylvania and Michigan again?


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:08:39 PM
2024 will be the age generation tipping point where millennials and later are undoubtedly the biggest generation to vote.

Remember, people who are slightly older than millennials - those who are around 35-45 now - are almost as liberal as millennials on social issues.  So you couple them with the millennial generation and you have a very clear majority of the electorate.

By 2024 EHarding will have perfected a game-changing invention to keep the GOP in power: reanimate the dead and usher them to the voting booths in November. I hear the undead are severely conservative nationalists.

[insert Illinois dead voter joke by EHarding]

-Nope. It's called Making America Great Again.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:09:45 PM
Why would Democrats be perpetually losing Pennsylvania and Michigan again?

-GOP going full Party of McKinley protectionist.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:13:10 PM
Why would Democrats be perpetually losing Pennsylvania and Michigan again?

-GOP going full Party of McKinley protectionist.

That's going to turn off millennial and post-millenial Philly area swing voters.

-Two words: Obama, NAFTA


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:14:50 PM
Also, why would the GOP moderate on immigration? Suicide?

Because there will be too much political power in swing states with large hispanic populations by then...  particularly Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona... and maybe Texas...

Republicans will need to fight for some of these states unless they make up ground somewhere else... and the upper midwest is not enough if they lose Florida and Arizona.

-Why would the GOP want to give Hispanics more power in that case? In any case,
()

and FL has trended R three out of the past four elections.

actually, I probably should have also noted that I think by 2024 Georgia will be lean democrat.  If you look at the 2016 vote by age group, the GOP is heavily relying on older voters there... the generational shift there will be more pronounced than in most states.
()


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:17:33 PM
Why would Democrats be perpetually losing Pennsylvania and Michigan again?

-GOP going full Party of McKinley protectionist.

That's going to turn off millennial and post-millenial Philly area swing voters.

-Two words: Obama, NAFTA

I'm not sure what you're getting at... my point was that if the Republican party continues down a protectionist route it will hurt them in wealthy Philly burbs that like NAFTA-like policies.  

-Obama got killed there due to his anti-NAFTA stance, don't you remember? Also was a disaster for the Dems among millenials. ;-)


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 12, 2017, 05:17:43 PM
That's going to turn off millennial and post-millenial Philly area swing voters.

At any rate, 2024 is generally when I have considered it a cut-off time for the GOP - where if they haven't made significant progress with either generation z and minorities, that even the more generous numbers just don't add up for them. Democratic performance among Millennials is very consistent and very deep, and future generations are only getting more diverse. In the end, Democrats will likely be pulling in much larger margins among <50 age group than Republicans will among the >50 group. However, I think the change will probably mean more in Congress/state legislatures than the electoral college, it's still hard to tell what happens when the GOP base becomes a distinct minority on that level.

And this will have been a long time coming too. The GOP has had their time - for like 2 generations now. That some people think that will last forever in the face of a clearly changing political landscape is beyond me.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:19:15 PM
Also, why would the GOP moderate on immigration? Suicide?

Because there will be too much political power in swing states with large hispanic populations by then...  particularly Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona... and maybe Texas...

Republicans will need to fight for some of these states unless they make up ground somewhere else... and the upper midwest is not enough if they lose Florida and Arizona.

-Why would the GOP want to give Hispanics more power in that case? In any case,
()

and FL has trended R three out of the past four elections.

actually, I probably should have also noted that I think by 2024 Georgia will be lean democrat.  If you look at the 2016 vote by age group, the GOP is heavily relying on older voters there... the generational shift there will be more pronounced than in most states.
()

That second map is kind of bizarre, why would Democrats be losing Nevada in that scenario.  If they are winning Arizona they are surely winning Nevada.

-Look at the trends. Trump did much better than Mitt in Clark, much worse in Maricopa.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:19:53 PM
Thinking about this further... what pains me the absolute most in all of these scenarios is that undoubtedly Florida will continue to be the most watched swing state for the next 5 elections.  

-Yup.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: The_Doctor on February 12, 2017, 05:23:40 PM
There absolutely will be a realignment definitely. I wrote an entire timeline about it so I won't go into it here. But yeah I expect a 1896/1932 realignment towards the Dems.

And Harding save it. I don't respond to racists.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:39:17 PM
That's going to turn off millennial and post-millenial Philly area swing voters.

At any rate, 2024 is generally when I have considered it a cut-off time for the GOP - where if they haven't made significant progress with either generation z and minorities, that even the more generous numbers just don't add up for them. Democratic performance among Millennials is very consistent and very deep, and future generations are only getting more diverse. In the end, Democrats will likely be pulling in much larger margins among <50 age group than Republicans will among the >50 group. However, I think the change will probably mean more in Congress/state legislatures than the electoral college, it's still hard to tell what happens when the GOP base becomes a distinct minority on that level.

And this will have been a long time coming too. The GOP has had their time - for like 2 generations now. That some people think that will last forever in the face of a clearly changing political landscape is beyond me.

I think the gerrymandering of 2010 was the worst thing the Republicans could have done because it has falsely emboldened them... they've basically pushed their agenda in the opposite direction of the changing American electorate thinking they would be able to continually get away with it.  But it's obviously going to catch up with them.  

At the same time their takeover hasn't done much to push the conservative agenda... they've gotten almost no-where on abortion in the last 10 years and gay marriage was legalized.  At best, they will now be able to crack down on immigration a bit more.

-What is the U.S. state with the lowest total fertility rate?


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 05:40:01 PM
There absolutely will be a realignment definitely. I wrote an entire timeline about it so I won't go into it here. But yeah I expect a 1896/1932 realignment towards the Dems.

And Harding save it. I don't respond to racists.

-I don't respond to advocates of WWIII.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 12, 2017, 06:14:32 PM
In terms of tangible benefits from their recent, hard-won majorities, it is little, but also remember that since Reagan the GOP has fundamentally moved the overton window to the right so in general, policy making in this country has taken on a more conservative bent. While many conservatives see Obama's agenda as "outrageously liberal," it really was not in many areas - at least based on what he did/tried to do. If they thought that was bad - they will probably have heart attacks with future unified Democratic governments.

At least the next 2 years (but maybe 4) are going to be where all the GOP's awful work burning down our system for political power comes to fruition. This is their window. If they screw it up and Democrats take back the House (somehow),, then it's over for Trump's presidency. I also believe there is a good chance they lose the presidency in 2020 and, at least imo, that will probably be the end of the conservative era in America - for a time, anyway.

Funny enough, sort of like Virginia Republicans (albeit lesser in severity), since the GOP realigned the country, they haven't really had many years to go "full conservative." Most of the time Democrats have controlled the presidency or one or more chambers of Congress and prevented them from being able to do anything substantial. This is quite a contrast to the New Deal era. Although, then again, I guess everyone's idea of "substantial" varies.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 06:36:31 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_fertility_rate


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Vosem on February 12, 2017, 06:39:22 PM
Protectionism and closed-borders is going to be a ridiculously losing message once Millennials are a sufficiently large proportion of the electorate (I would argue that this has already happened by 2016 and the Electoral College is simply delaying the inevitable), but some of the other issues I'm uncertain of. There is no generational gap that I've seen in abortion issue polling. Most of the GOP has already moderated on gay marriage and the issue is already a massively downplayed one.

Eharding: the second map you post is unlikely to still be a Republican victory after the 2020 redistribution. Much less 2030.

Obama, NAFTA: Protectionism versus free-trade wasn't particularly an issue in 2008, and certainly decided very few votes. The election was fought on other topics.

Fertility rate: New England has the lowest and the Mountain West has the highest, as of 2015. This is  a little immaterial because people born in 2015 aren't going to be eligible to vote until 2033; we're discussing the changes that are more immediate.

Anyway, the idea that the GOP is doomed to die is a ridiculous one (mainly because the US system, as I've brought up numerous times, constantly adjusts so that the two parties are about 50/50), but the idea that a lot of the ideas that the GOP is currently advocating are doomed to die is basically unambiguously true. In a lot of cases (most obviously gay marriage), the process is already clearly underway.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 06:54:38 PM
Protectionism and closed-borders is going to be a ridiculously losing message once Millennials are a sufficiently large proportion of the electorate (I would argue that this has already happened by 2016 and the Electoral College is simply delaying the inevitable), but some of the other issues I'm uncertain of. There is no generational gap that I've seen in abortion issue polling. Most of the GOP has already moderated on gay marriage and the issue is already a massively downplayed one.

Eharding: the second map you post is unlikely to still be a Republican victory after the 2020 redistribution. Much less 2030.

Obama, NAFTA: Protectionism versus free-trade wasn't particularly an issue in 2008, and certainly decided very few votes. The election was fought on other topics.

Fertility rate: New England has the lowest and the Mountain West has the highest, as of 2015. This is  a little immaterial because people born in 2015 aren't going to be eligible to vote until 2033; we're discussing the changes that are more immediate.

Anyway, the idea that the GOP is doomed to die is a ridiculous one (mainly because the US system, as I've brought up numerous times, constantly adjusts so that the two parties are about 50/50), but the idea that a lot of the ideas that the GOP is currently advocating are doomed to die is basically unambiguously true. In a lot of cases (most obviously gay marriage), the process is already clearly underway.

-One curious point about McCain's convention speech is its notable anti-protectionism. McCain would surely have won OH had he went full protectionist.

Protectionism will be a good EC strategy for the next decade, closed borders forever.

Party control is random; 50-50 tendencies have only really existed since 2000.

Obergefell might be overturned, but I doubt any state is banning SSM again.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Vosem on February 12, 2017, 07:08:35 PM
Protectionism and closed-borders is going to be a ridiculously losing message once Millennials are a sufficiently large proportion of the electorate (I would argue that this has already happened by 2016 and the Electoral College is simply delaying the inevitable), but some of the other issues I'm uncertain of. There is no generational gap that I've seen in abortion issue polling. Most of the GOP has already moderated on gay marriage and the issue is already a massively downplayed one.

Eharding: the second map you post is unlikely to still be a Republican victory after the 2020 redistribution. Much less 2030.

Obama, NAFTA: Protectionism versus free-trade wasn't particularly an issue in 2008, and certainly decided very few votes. The election was fought on other topics.

Fertility rate: New England has the lowest and the Mountain West has the highest, as of 2015. This is  a little immaterial because people born in 2015 aren't going to be eligible to vote until 2033; we're discussing the changes that are more immediate.

Anyway, the idea that the GOP is doomed to die is a ridiculous one (mainly because the US system, as I've brought up numerous times, constantly adjusts so that the two parties are about 50/50), but the idea that a lot of the ideas that the GOP is currently advocating are doomed to die is basically unambiguously true. In a lot of cases (most obviously gay marriage), the process is already clearly underway.

-One curious point about McCain's convention speech is its notable anti-protectionism. McCain would surely have won OH had he went full protectionist.

Protectionism will be a good EC strategy for the next decade, closed borders forever.

Party control is random; 50-50 tendencies have only really existed since 2000.

Obergefell might be overturned, but I doubt any state is banning SSM again.

-One curious point about Millennials, especially in Anglophone countries, is basically their staunch support for free-trade, open-borders, and what can be boiled down to "globalism" as such, and their frequent willingness to prioritize these issues. The Brexit referendum in the UK, and perhaps more especially the leadership fight between Jeremy Corbyn and Owen Smith, really demonstrates this (where Smith was able to get young voters on his side by pointing out Corbyn's insufficient opposition to Brexit); so does the extent of the anti-Trump reaction among voters under 45 in the Republican primary, even though they were voting for candidates similar to Mitt Romney, who they had rejected four years earlier. I am fairly confident that Britain will be voting to reenter the EU in 15 years or so, and that there will be a political majority to do so inside the next decade.

-Ohio is not such a protectionist state. Our junior Senator is basically the man responsible for building CAFTA. We responded by giving him two massive, double-digit victories over credible opponents. McCain could not have won Ohio in 2008, because no Republican could've won Ohio in 2008, against Obama or Clinton. Edwards could've lost it, otoh, but the reasons would've been entirely unrelated to free trade/protectionism.

-Protectionism is a platform that cannot win the popular vote in 2016, and can't win the popular vote in either presidential primary. Note that one of Clinton's attacks on Sanders' that really stuck was his support in the 1990s for strong immigration restrictions.

-50/50 tendencies in presidential elections are rare, but for the system as a whole they are common. Before the Clinton/Gingrich Revolution in the early '90s, Republicans had a systemic advantage in presidential elections and Democrats had a systemic advantage in congressional elections. The Clinton/Gingrich Revolution flipped this, and it doesn't seem the paradigm is going away anytime soon.

-Why would Obergefell get overturned? We've had decades of conservative court control without Roe getting overturned, and Roe is a far more controversial decision with far more motivated opponents than Obergefell. Even Trump said in 2016 that he didn't want to see it overturned, and when Cruz tried to emphasize gay marriage as an issue in the presidential primary, there was a backlash (or at least it utterly failed to help). I don't see where the will is coming from to overturn Obergefell.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 07:34:17 PM
Trump would have won Ohio by one to three points in 2008. He might also have lost GA.

Trump's first win was in NH; younger voters there tended to favor Trump and Cruz over Kasich and Bush.

Protectionism is far more an EC strategy than a PV one.

If Trump appoints three Scalia equivalents, Roe and Obergefell are gone.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 12, 2017, 07:58:45 PM
Do you have a link to the thread where you wrote the timeline?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251989.0


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Vosem on February 12, 2017, 08:14:27 PM
Trump would have won Ohio by one to three points in 2008. He might also have lost GA.

Trump's first win was in NH; younger voters there tended to favor Trump and Cruz over Kasich and Bush.

Protectionism is far more an EC strategy than a PV one.

If Trump appoints three Scalia equivalents, Roe and Obergefell are gone.

-GA was much whiter in 2008 than 2016, and Ohio was still in the midst of the backlash to Governor Taft, our Republican Governor who hit single-digit approval ratings in 2005-2006. Trump could maybe have pulled out Indiana, but otherwise the map would've been the same. (He might've lost AZ, but I think he would've pulled it out).

-This is true in NH, where under-30s were a stronger Trump demographic than the electorate as a whole, and some other New England states (I'd have to check to make sure; I think it was also true in Vermont, and perhaps RI), but broadly it was untrue. It was untrue in the Midwest and South, where the youth were weaker for Trump than average, and it was massively true in the West, where Trump sometimes ran double-digits weaker among younger voters (for instance, Rubio won under-30s in Nevada). They also tended to simply vote for whoever the strongest anti-Trump was rather than for anyone specific (sometimes breaking for Cruz/Kasich/Rubio depending on the state), which suggests that opposition to Trump rather than a liking for any one candidate was the main motivator. I'm a bit worried that if I continue to write about patterns in the Republican primary I'll summon uti, who loves to litigate this with me over and over again...

-This is true, but even there it isn't one that's going to work in the long-term. Ohio Republicans, who love Rob Portman, don't care about protectionism -- if anything, they mildly disfavor it, but they don't really care. There is a segment of Democrats who do, who Trump was able to convince to switch sides, while Republicans mostly stood by him. Any actual success in enacting protectionist policy will cause both agricultural areas and suburbs to bolt, fast.

-This is true but it seems unlikely. Nobody on the conservative side seems close to retirement (there are rumors about Thomas, but it seems unlikely given his increased activity on the Court of late), and nobody on the liberal side will go willingly. Breyer and Ginsburg are old (and Breyer was so obviously waiting for Hillary to replace Obama so he could retire...), but neither is in such bad health that they'll drop dead tomorrow. On the other hand, Scalia seemed to be doing OK, too. So we'll see.

I think 2024 or 2028 after an economic crisis would look like this with a tied PV.  That would be the realignment.  There's an outside chance it happens in 2020, but I think Trump will be reelected.

(
)

AK and NC are trending Democratic over the long-term.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Vosem on February 12, 2017, 08:20:50 PM
Another good point to make is that trends are not forever. Trump's famous win in staunchly Democratic Trumbull County was not predicted by 2012 trends; indeed, the county trended Democratic in 2012. Reversion to the mean is a strong force, and most trends immediately reverse. Here is a map of which states trended the same way across Barack Obama's two elections:

(
)

Most states trended in opposite directions over the two elections. I expect Trump to have a similar pattern.

EDIT: Note that these actual strong trends for the most part were repeated in 2016, with the exceptions of Hawaii and Vermont.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Vosem on February 12, 2017, 08:50:45 PM
Eh, small consistent trends can end up mattering a lot. By far the strongest trend we've seen recently is in WV, of course, which has gone from being among the safest Democratic states to among the safest Republican in less than 20 years. It last trended Democratic in 1988; since then it has trended Republican at every election, 1992-1996-2000-2004-2008-2012-2016. MO/KY/AR have done so starting 1996; CA/VA/WA have all trended Democratic starting 2000. There are some pretty long-standing trends out there.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Del Tachi on February 12, 2017, 10:21:12 PM
2008 was the realignment of our lifetimes.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 12, 2017, 10:29:16 PM
2008 was the realignment of our lifetimes.

-No. Try the 1992-2000 period.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 13, 2017, 01:10:28 AM

Eh, to an extent, but Bill Clinton's wins in parts of the Deep South were very candidate-specific, and there was still a massive amount of ticket splitting in this era. Heck, Alabama elected a Democrat and New York a Republican to the Senate in 1992! And the various House seats that each party had in turf that favored the other party at the Presidential level was still at pretty high rates. I would say that the realignment has been in small flux over the past 20 years. Each election except for really 2004 and 2012 has been different from the last in a pretty significant way.

The 2008 results had a .94 correlation with the 2004 results; same for 2016 and 2012. Last time it was below that was 1996, due to America shaking off Perot and WJC's consolidation of the NE. Split districts dropped dramatically from 1992 to 2000. Interstate polarization also grew dramatically between 1992 and 2000. The yuge urban-rural divide and marriage gap also appeared in the 1990s.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 13, 2017, 03:14:47 AM
I believe that a Centrist third party will win in a landslide in 2024 after disasters from the right form 2017-2021 , and the left from 2021-2025


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Thunderbird is the word on February 13, 2017, 05:45:38 AM
I believe that a Centrist third party will win in a landslide in 2024 after disasters from the right form 2017-2021 , and the left from 2021-2025

lol, maybe Huntsman-Webb?


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 13, 2017, 09:39:16 AM
Anyone who thinks the GOP will just die (both in Congress and in presidential races) because of how millennials vote has learned nothing from this election.

You're the only one who said that. What is actually being discussed here is a pretty constant theme for both parties throughout American history.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Person Man on February 13, 2017, 10:47:01 AM
I believe that a Centrist third party will win in a landslide in 2024 after disasters from the right form 2017-2021 , and the left from 2021-2025

lol, maybe Huntsman-Webb?

I see that happening if Trump can't deliver but him or any of his underlings are beaten by 2024 ( Trump isn't substantially more popular yet everything is still R)


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on February 13, 2017, 12:04:55 PM
I believe that a Centrist third party will win in a landslide in 2024 after disasters from the right form 2017-2021 , and the left from 2021-2025

lol, maybe Huntsman-Webb?

Probably Kasich - Webb or by then who ever that election version of those two are .


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on February 13, 2017, 12:08:09 PM
Anyone who thinks the GOP will just die (both in Congress and in presidential races) because of how millennials vote has learned nothing from this election.

You're the only one who said that. What is actually being discussed here is a pretty constant theme for both parties throughout American history.

Even if there is a realignment at the presidential level that favors the Democrats for one or two decades (I doubt it, but okay), Republicans will still show strength in gubernatorial and Senate races. Even the House should remain competitive.  

Thats because Democratic voters will be centered in large urban areas and states like CA, NY, NC, and GA. The Republican will also have an edge in senate and governor office because of this. The house will probably lean R unless they completely collapse in the suburbs. I thinks its to early to say that the next realignment will be the death of the Republican party but 2016 prove that the rust belt trend was faster than the sunbelt. But when it does we need to see the Republican strategy going forth before we talk about a permanent D majority.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: UncleSam on February 13, 2017, 01:14:31 PM
Can someone explain to me why millennialis won't trend right like the boomers before them? The boomers were a very liberal generation until recently after all.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 13, 2017, 02:39:07 PM
Can someone explain to me why millennialis won't trend right like the boomers before them? The boomers were a very liberal generation until recently after all.

Because the "trend conservative/Republican as they age" idea is a myth that refuses to die. Baby boomers gave Reagan major support in their youth (Obama-like margins in 1984, and Bush1 won 18-29 year olds by 6 points) and have tended to lean Republican most of their lives (yes, there are plenty of exceptions but that is what they are - exceptions, not the rule). There are parts of the boomer generation that aren't as conservative/Republican, particularly those whose views of the GOP were crafted by Nixon, but most of that generation has not voted in ways that would suggest it was "very liberal."

Further, Millennials and generations after it are more and more diverse, and Hispanics/African Americans have shown consistently high support for Democrats, meaning the Millennial+ vote will be more inelastic until Republicans can manage to broaden their tent.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 13, 2017, 03:42:47 PM
And for the record, a realignment of the sorts here doesn't just mean presidential. No change in the political landscape is that limited. And when I think of a realignment, I don't think of "20 years straight of a Democratic president." There is nothing barring a Republican from winning during that time, and in all reality one probably would. The deeper effects are a change in long-term majorities straight down to the state level, and the general shift in policy over the following decades. I don't have exit polls per Congressional district, but assuming Democrats prevent another redistricting rout, I'd say the odds that the House advantage flips sometime over the next 15 years are significant. The GOP House advantage is not that big. Without the egregious gerrymandering from 2010 it'd likely be no larger than it was in the early 2000s, which is small and vulnerable.

But in the end, I don't think people TNVol look at politics that way anyway. From what I've seen, he probably assumes the Republican Party will fill in the gaps as they go along and generally assumes the status quo will stay the status quo until it no longer isn't, which imo is a very dull way of looking at things, but to each their own.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 13, 2017, 03:55:35 PM
Anyone who thinks the GOP will just die (both in Congress and in presidential races) because of how millennials vote has learned nothing from this election.

Why do you need to make an absurd straw man argument that is not what is actually being debated here?

This idea that there will be a realignment election that will lead to a >20-year long Democratic rule  (at minimum) at the presidential level is exactly what you are debating, though? So no, not really a strawman. Demographics aren't destiny, which is something your party had to learn the hard way last year. And no, I'm obviously not denying that the GOP needs to fix their demographic problems, or else they'll be in trouble, especially in states like TX and FL. I'd expect most presidential elections in the future to be quite competitive and I don't believe that there is an impenetrable blue or red wall. 

What poster said the GOP would simply die? 

It is very reasonable to argue that the GOP will find itself on the bad side of a realignment despite the 2016 results.  Lets not forget that Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 elections.  I believe this is unprecedented in the last 100 years.

So if we look at past elections as an indicator, we see that Democrats have a general advantage when turnout is high (e.g., Presidential years)... that's the baseline...

Then we look at trendlines... we know the following:

1) Minorities have been a stable voting bloc for Democrats over the last 30 years... this is indisputable.

2) Republicans have made no serious inroads with minority voters.

3) The minority population has steadily grown in each and every Presidential election.

4) Republicans consistently receive the highest share of the vote from those 65+

5) Democrats consistently receive the highest share of the vote from those under 30.

6) Those voters over 65 are more likely to not be alive in 8 years than those under 30. 

7) Despite the adage that people get more conservative as they get older, most studies show that party alignment stays with people as they age.

Looking at all these factors it is entirely reasonable to summarize that a realigning election is on the near horizon given that the party in power is not the party that a) a majority of voters consistently choose on the Presidential level and b) the will likely benefit from demographic changes. 

-Tell that to John Kerry and George McGovern. 2004 was not a low-turnout election. And McGovern winning the under-20 vote foretold exactly nothing. Republicans have made very serious gains with minority voters since 20 years ago (losses with Asians offset by gains with Hispanics).

A realigning election will, of course, come, but not in 2024 (unless this party system's unusually short for some reason).

Tell the Democrats how to put their own house in order. They're the ones out of power.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 14, 2017, 10:29:07 PM
Anyone who thinks the GOP will just die (both in Congress and in presidential races) because of how millennials vote has learned nothing from this election.

Why do you need to make an absurd straw man argument that is not what is actually being debated here?

This idea that there will be a realignment election that will lead to a >20-year long Democratic rule  (at minimum) at the presidential level is exactly what you are debating, though? So no, not really a strawman. Demographics aren't destiny, which is something your party had to learn the hard way last year. And no, I'm obviously not denying that the GOP needs to fix their demographic problems, or else they'll be in trouble, especially in states like TX and FL. I'd expect most presidential elections in the future to be quite competitive and I don't believe that there is an impenetrable blue or red wall. 

What poster said the GOP would simply die? 

It is very reasonable to argue that the GOP will find itself on the bad side of a realignment despite the 2016 results.  Lets not forget that Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 elections.  I believe this is unprecedented in the last 100 years.

So if we look at past elections as an indicator, we see that Democrats have a general advantage when turnout is high (e.g., Presidential years)... that's the baseline...

Then we look at trendlines... we know the following:

1) Minorities have been a stable voting bloc for Democrats over the last 30 years... this is indisputable.

2) Republicans have made no serious inroads with minority voters.

3) The minority population has steadily grown in each and every Presidential election.

4) Republicans consistently receive the highest share of the vote from those 65+

5) Democrats consistently receive the highest share of the vote from those under 30.

6) Those voters over 65 are more likely to not be alive in 8 years than those under 30. 

7) Despite the adage that people get more conservative as they get older, most studies show that party alignment stays with people as they age.

Looking at all these factors it is entirely reasonable to summarize that a realigning election is on the near horizon given that the party in power is not the party that a) a majority of voters consistently choose on the Presidential level and b) the will likely benefit from demographic changes. 

-Tell that to John Kerry and George McGovern. 2004 was not a low-turnout election. And McGovern winning the under-20 vote foretold exactly nothing. Republicans have made very serious gains with minority voters since 20 years ago (losses with Asians offset by gains with Hispanics).

A realigning election will, of course, come, but not in 2024 (unless this party system's unusually short for some reason).

Tell the Democrats how to put their own house in order. They're the ones out of power.

You picked the one election out of the last 7 in which the GOP (barely) won the popular vote, and that's your big point.  I'm almost starting to think you are an elaborate schtick.

-You are apparently pretending that neither candidate quality nor wars and the economy matter electorally. Bizarre. Bush was not an especially high-quality candidate. Neither was Trump, for that matter (though he was higher-quality than Mitt).


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Vosem on February 14, 2017, 11:58:14 PM
Anyone who thinks the GOP will just die (both in Congress and in presidential races) because of how millennials vote has learned nothing from this election.

Why do you need to make an absurd straw man argument that is not what is actually being debated here?

This idea that there will be a realignment election that will lead to a >20-year long Democratic rule  (at minimum) at the presidential level is exactly what you are debating, though? So no, not really a strawman. Demographics aren't destiny, which is something your party had to learn the hard way last year. And no, I'm obviously not denying that the GOP needs to fix their demographic problems, or else they'll be in trouble, especially in states like TX and FL. I'd expect most presidential elections in the future to be quite competitive and I don't believe that there is an impenetrable blue or red wall. 

What poster said the GOP would simply die? 

It is very reasonable to argue that the GOP will find itself on the bad side of a realignment despite the 2016 results.  Lets not forget that Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 elections.  I believe this is unprecedented in the last 100 years.

So if we look at past elections as an indicator, we see that Democrats have a general advantage when turnout is high (e.g., Presidential years)... that's the baseline...

Then we look at trendlines... we know the following:

1) Minorities have been a stable voting bloc for Democrats over the last 30 years... this is indisputable.

2) Republicans have made no serious inroads with minority voters.

3) The minority population has steadily grown in each and every Presidential election.

4) Republicans consistently receive the highest share of the vote from those 65+

5) Democrats consistently receive the highest share of the vote from those under 30.

6) Those voters over 65 are more likely to not be alive in 8 years than those under 30. 

7) Despite the adage that people get more conservative as they get older, most studies show that party alignment stays with people as they age.

Looking at all these factors it is entirely reasonable to summarize that a realigning election is on the near horizon given that the party in power is not the party that a) a majority of voters consistently choose on the Presidential level and b) the will likely benefit from demographic changes. 

-Tell that to John Kerry and George McGovern. 2004 was not a low-turnout election. And McGovern winning the under-20 vote foretold exactly nothing. Republicans have made very serious gains with minority voters since 20 years ago (losses with Asians offset by gains with Hispanics).

A realigning election will, of course, come, but not in 2024 (unless this party system's unusually short for some reason).

Tell the Democrats how to put their own house in order. They're the ones out of power.

On the contrary, McGovern winning the under-20 vote was a quite significant event. Barack Obama won twice with what can fairly be said to have basically been an updated, modern version of McGovern's platform.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Person Man on February 17, 2017, 11:31:05 AM
The GOP can continue keeping elections close these next 6-8 years by upping their margins with white voters but they'll hit a ceiling at about 65%. The remaining 35% of White people are either too socially liberal or fiscally liberal to vote for them. This remaining 35% are city urban white folk, white women, winetrack liberals, and white millenials who have no interest in Trumps Republican Party.

The GOP then only has two options to increase their share of the white vote beyond 65%: moderate on social issues (and lose parts of their evangelical base so...not happening) or moderate on fiscal issues (and lose their libertarian base along with a lot of big money donors...which they also won't do). Basically they'll have no choice but to start doing better with minorities going beyond 2020 if they want to stay competitive at the Presidential level and with Trump leading the Party I do not believe that will happen. Trump did marginally better with nonwhite voters than Romney did but Bush performed much better with Hispanics and Reagan performed much better with black voters compared to Trumps performance with either group.

Millenials are a much more liberal generation compared to boomers. Millenials will be 25-44 years of age going into 2024 and boomers will be 60-78. Many boomers will have died off and more millenials will be consistently voting. The math doesn't bode well for the GOP in any way.

At this point, the GOP's last hope is that Generation X (born 1965-1980) and Generation Z (all born 2000 of after) both start trending Republican.

I don't see Generation Z trending Republican while the GOP is actively trying to undo abortion and gay marriage on the state level as well as openly trying to suppress minority voters (Generation Z will be the most racially diverse voting population).  If anything Generation Z will be even more Democratic than Millennials unless the GOP immediately moderates their absurd and vile positions on gay marriage and other social issues.

...but Pepe. :P


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 17, 2017, 11:14:28 PM
The GOP can continue keeping elections close these next 6-8 years by upping their margins with white voters but they'll hit a ceiling at about 65%. The remaining 35% of White people are either too socially liberal or fiscally liberal to vote for them. This remaining 35% are city urban white folk, white women, winetrack liberals, and white millenials who have no interest in Trumps Republican Party.

The GOP then only has two options to increase their share of the white vote beyond 65%: moderate on social issues (and lose parts of their evangelical base so...not happening) or moderate on fiscal issues (and lose their libertarian base along with a lot of big money donors...which they also won't do). Basically they'll have no choice but to start doing better with minorities going beyond 2020 if they want to stay competitive at the Presidential level and with Trump leading the Party I do not believe that will happen. Trump did marginally better with nonwhite voters than Romney did but Bush performed much better with Hispanics and Reagan performed much better with black voters compared to Trumps performance with either group.

Millenials are a much more liberal generation compared to boomers. Millenials will be 25-44 years of age going into 2024 and boomers will be 60-78. Many boomers will have died off and more millenials will be consistently voting. The math doesn't bode well for the GOP in any way.

At this point, the GOP's last hope is that Generation X (born 1965-1980) and Generation Z (all born 2000 of after) both start trending Republican.

I don't see Generation Z trending Republican while the GOP is actively trying to undo abortion and gay marriage on the state level as well as openly trying to suppress minority voters (Generation Z will be the most racially diverse voting population).  If anything Generation Z will be even more Democratic than Millennials unless the GOP immediately moderates their absurd and vile positions on gay marriage and other social issues.

The best predictor of somebody's lifelong party affiliation is to look at what President was in power when they came of age and how that President was performing.

Right now the oldest of Gen Zers have barely turned 17 this year. The first wave of them (18-20 year olds) will come of age during the Trump or Pence presidency. Trump will likely be very unpopular and Pence will only be somewhat popular if he's seen as a stabilizing figure after Trump resigns or is impeached.

It's hard to say if Trump or Pence will win in 2020 and we can only guess what 2024-2036 will look like when all of Generation Z has reached adulthood (assuming their birth years will be 2000-2018). I do agree with you though. I think it's much more likely than not that Generation Z ends up being fairly liberal when all is said and done.

EDIT: Since you and I both believe that there will be a demcoratic realignment in the 2020's (which could last with the dems in power for 12+ years) then most of Generation Z will be liberal having come of age during popular or relatively popular democratic presidencies.

Agreed.  The real question is what year in the 2020's the realignment occurs.  I am pretty confident the demographics will be sufficiently altered by 2024 as boomers and older generations start to die off.

-What evidence do you have for this view of realignments? Does it work for the 19th century?


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 17, 2017, 11:16:55 PM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 17, 2017, 11:33:52 PM
Why would it be 2024? Party systems generally last longer than this. Arbitrary generational categories are useless here.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 17, 2017, 11:37:04 PM
Why would it be 2024? Party systems generally last longer than this. Arbitrary generational categories are useless here.

????

Because 2024 is the first Presidential election where Boomers+ will not be calling the shots.

-That's an arbitrary and useless category.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 17, 2017, 11:42:57 PM
Why would it be 2024? Party systems generally last longer than this. Arbitrary generational categories are useless here.

????

Because 2024 is the first Presidential election where Boomers+ will not be calling the shots.

-That's an arbitrary and useless category.

Uh, no.  It's f'ing not.

-It is. What was the concrete electoral outcome of McGovern winning those under 23?


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 17, 2017, 11:46:19 PM
Why would it be 2024? Party systems generally last longer than this. Arbitrary generational categories are useless here.

????

Because 2024 is the first Presidential election where Boomers+ will not be calling the shots.

-That's an arbitrary and useless category.

Uh, no.  It's f'ing not.

-It is. What was the concrete electoral outcome of McGovern winning those under 23?

I don't have the patience to deal with you today.  Another time.

-See? None.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 18, 2017, 12:03:18 AM

I don't know whether you get this or not, but you annoy a lot of people on here. That someone doesn't want to discuss something with you any longer is not by any means "evidence" of your side of the argument. You have a hard-headed, tedious and somewhat negative nature to you that doesn't exactly invite friendly discourse.

As for the question, polling data has shown voters growing up under Nixon to be notably less Republican than those under Ford/Carter.

As for party systems - there is no concrete length and there are not enough of them for anyone to say without a doubt what the standard length is. If 2024 was a year where a realigning event was most apparent, then the Reagan era would have been about as long as the New Deal era.

You can do your own reading on this - perhaps with an open mind, instead of nitpicking at everything here with short answers that add virtually nothing to the conversation.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: The_Doctor on February 18, 2017, 12:29:41 AM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.

That's largely already happened.  Rich people over 50 vote Republican, rich people under 50 vote Democrat.

I feel that the rich people voting Democratic are actually Republicans disgusted with their evangelical base. Or rather they're voting for the Democratic coalition that exists under the Reagan age. Which amounts to neoliberal lite.

With Sanders on the scene I could see the traditional Jeffersonian - Jacksonian Democratic coalition reemerging based on working class folks. I take a middle road between Tom RINO and you here.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 18, 2017, 12:39:09 AM

I don't know whether you get this or not, but you annoy a lot of people on here. That someone doesn't want to discuss something with you any longer is not by any means "evidence" of your side of the argument. You have a hard-headed, tedious and somewhat negative nature to you that doesn't exactly invite friendly discourse.

As for the question, polling data has shown voters growing up under Nixon to be notably less Republican than those under Ford/Carter.

As for party systems - there is no concrete length and there are not enough of them for anyone to say without a doubt what the standard length is. If 2024 was a year where a realigning event was most apparent, then the Reagan era would have been about as long as the New Deal era.

You can do your own reading on this - perhaps with an open mind, instead of nitpicking at everything here with short answers that add virtually nothing to the conversation.

-People born in the early Eisenhower years (the strongest age demographic for McGovern) are in their early 60s today. The exit polls are not consistent with this being a Dem-leaning age group.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: RINO Tom on February 18, 2017, 10:44:40 AM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.

False.

(Conversing with you how you converse with others.)


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 18, 2017, 11:22:37 AM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.

False.

(Conversing with you how you converse with others.)

-Come on, man, this is like a Vermonter in the 1950s saying the Dems will never win Vermont because they're too racist.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: RINO Tom on February 18, 2017, 11:44:07 AM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.

False.

(Conversing with you how you converse with others.)

-Come on, man, this is like a Vermonter in the 1950s saying the Dems will never win Vermont because they're too racist.

No, it's not.  You're completely projecting a trend based on what you want to happen.  MUH THE PEOPLE VS. THE ELITES.  It hasn't happened in modern times, and it never will again; politics will never be that simple ever again.

Just because something happened in the past (Presidential voting trickling down in the South, for example) does not mean it's destined to happen in the future.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Virginiá on February 18, 2017, 12:14:26 PM
-People born in the early Eisenhower years (the strongest age demographic for McGovern) are in their early 60s today. The exit polls are not consistent with this being a Dem-leaning age group.

Except 60+ would be over 20 years worth of voters (depending on how many >80yr voters you take into account), while Nixon served for what, 5 and a half years?

Of course analyzing limited polling data for such a small slice of the electorate would be error-prone, so you can go with that if you want. Doesn't change the differences to the Ford/Carter years and then the Reagan years as well, though.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: jojoju1998 on February 18, 2017, 11:56:13 PM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.

That's largely already happened.  Rich people over 50 vote Republican, rich people under 50 vote Democrat.

I feel that the rich people voting Democratic are actually Republicans disgusted with their evangelical base. Or rather they're voting for the Democratic coalition that exists under the Reagan age. Which amounts to neoliberal lite.

With Sanders on the scene I could see the traditional Jeffersonian - Jacksonian Democratic coalition reemerging based on working class folks. I take a middle road between Tom RINO and you here.

That is absolutely true and it is the main reason I vote Democrat.  I would obviously benefit personally from Republicans getting their way on taxes and repealing Obamacare.  However, I have nothing but contempt and disgust for the Evangelical wing of the Republican party... as long as they are in charge... and THEY ARE in charge... I will never vote Republican for any level of government.  I would like Democrats to do even better with rich people in the future because then the party will align itself accordingly on fiscal issues.  There are lots of people in suburbs that are socially liberal but fiscally conservative.  The Republican party is turning into the opposite of this.

Rockerfeller Republicans ? TD did a pretty good timeline on this.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: The_Doctor on February 19, 2017, 12:35:06 AM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.

That's largely already happened.  Rich people over 50 vote Republican, rich people under 50 vote Democrat.

I feel that the rich people voting Democratic are actually Republicans disgusted with their evangelical base. Or rather they're voting for the Democratic coalition that exists under the Reagan age. Which amounts to neoliberal lite.

With Sanders on the scene I could see the traditional Jeffersonian - Jacksonian Democratic coalition reemerging based on working class folks. I take a middle road between Tom RINO and you here.

That is absolutely true and it is the main reason I vote Democrat.  I would obviously benefit personally from Republicans getting their way on taxes and repealing Obamacare.  However, I have nothing but contempt and disgust for the Evangelical wing of the Republican party... as long as they are in charge... and THEY ARE in charge... I will never vote Republican for any level of government.  I would like Democrats to do even better with rich people in the future because then the party will align itself accordingly on fiscal issues.  There are lots of people in suburbs that are socially liberal but fiscally conservative.  The Republican party is turning into the opposite of this.

So in theory what would your feelings be if the Republican Party remained neoliberal and economically conservative and foreign policy hawks while jettisoning their evangelical base? Would you (, to make a pun) become a swing voter?

I haven't really studied this issue a ton, its just a theory that Democrats won areas like Fairfax, etc on the basis of being the more acceptable neoliberal Party so my bolded line was almost a casual throwaway line.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Vosem on April 01, 2021, 02:12:45 PM
Another good point to make is that trends are not forever. Trump's famous win in staunchly Democratic Trumbull County was not predicted by 2012 trends; indeed, the county trended Democratic in 2012. Reversion to the mean is a strong force, and most trends immediately reverse. Here is a map of which states trended the same way across Barack Obama's two elections:

(
)

Most states trended in opposite directions over the two elections. I expect Trump to have a similar pattern.

EDIT: Note that these actual strong trends for the most part were repeated in 2016, with the exceptions of Hawaii and Vermont.

Here's the same map, but for the two Trump elections rather than the two Obama elections:

(
)

I was very nearly wrong. In Obama's two elections, 34 states trended in different directions, and I expected this number to remain basically the same for Trump; instead, it plunged to 26. My prediction I thought was totally correct just barely came true.

4 states trended towards Democrats at the last four consecutive elections: Georgia, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington. Just 2 states trended towards Republicans at the last four consecutive elections: Arkansas and Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: David Hume on April 03, 2021, 10:12:22 PM
Another good point to make is that trends are not forever. Trump's famous win in staunchly Democratic Trumbull County was not predicted by 2012 trends; indeed, the county trended Democratic in 2012. Reversion to the mean is a strong force, and most trends immediately reverse. Here is a map of which states trended the same way across Barack Obama's two elections:

(
)

Most states trended in opposite directions over the two elections. I expect Trump to have a similar pattern.

EDIT: Note that these actual strong trends for the most part were repeated in 2016, with the exceptions of Hawaii and Vermont.

Here's the same map, but for the two Trump elections rather than the two Obama elections:

(
)

I was very nearly wrong. In Obama's two elections, 34 states trended in different directions, and I expected this number to remain basically the same for Trump; instead, it plunged to 26. My prediction I thought was totally correct just barely came true.

4 states trended towards Democrats at the last four consecutive elections: Georgia, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington. Just 2 states trended towards Republicans at the last four consecutive elections: Arkansas and Pennsylvania.
PA? I guess you mean FL


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on April 04, 2021, 04:01:52 PM
I believe that a Centrist third party will win in a landslide in 2024 after disasters from the right form 2017-2021 , and the left from 2021-2025

looking back at some of these posts I made sometimes are cringeworthy lol


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Skill and Chance on April 05, 2021, 09:49:09 AM
I think this still pretty likely TBH.  There's a pretty substantial chance of either 1. A narrow Dem win dependent on the Sunbelt or 2. A Republican carrying the Hispanic vote, both would be game changers away from the Reagan/Clinton era.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Vosem on April 11, 2021, 04:07:15 PM
Another good point to make is that trends are not forever. Trump's famous win in staunchly Democratic Trumbull County was not predicted by 2012 trends; indeed, the county trended Democratic in 2012. Reversion to the mean is a strong force, and most trends immediately reverse. Here is a map of which states trended the same way across Barack Obama's two elections:

(
)

Most states trended in opposite directions over the two elections. I expect Trump to have a similar pattern.

EDIT: Note that these actual strong trends for the most part were repeated in 2016, with the exceptions of Hawaii and Vermont.

Here's the same map, but for the two Trump elections rather than the two Obama elections:

(
)

I was very nearly wrong. In Obama's two elections, 34 states trended in different directions, and I expected this number to remain basically the same for Trump; instead, it plunged to 26. My prediction I thought was totally correct just barely came true.

4 states trended towards Democrats at the last four consecutive elections: Georgia, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington. Just 2 states trended towards Republicans at the last four consecutive elections: Arkansas and Pennsylvania.
PA? I guess you mean FL

No, FL trended Democratic in 2012. The only states that trended Republican in 2008/2012/2016/2020 are Arkansas and Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Nightcore Nationalist on April 17, 2021, 03:47:46 PM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.

False.

(Conversing with you how you converse with others.)

-Come on, man, this is like a Vermonter in the 1950s saying the Dems will never win Vermont because they're too racist.

No, it's not.  You're completely projecting a trend based on what you want to happen.  MUH THE PEOPLE VS. THE ELITES.  It hasn't happened in modern times, and it never will again; politics will never be that simple ever again.

Just because something happened in the past (Presidential voting trickling down in the South, for example) does not mean it's destined to happen in the future.



LOLOL


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: RINO Tom on April 17, 2021, 05:09:16 PM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.

False.

(Conversing with you how you converse with others.)

-Come on, man, this is like a Vermonter in the 1950s saying the Dems will never win Vermont because they're too racist.

No, it's not.  You're completely projecting a trend based on what you want to happen.  MUH THE PEOPLE VS. THE ELITES.  It hasn't happened in modern times, and it never will again; politics will never be that simple ever again.

Just because something happened in the past (Presidential voting trickling down in the South, for example) does not mean it's destined to happen in the future.



LOLOL

Copy and paste my response from him to you, lol.  Our political coalitions are QUITE gray on matters of class, unless you’re desperate to paint your side as “for the people” or “for the elites.”  Neither side is either, unless you’re a chump and a sucker.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: Suburban Republican on April 18, 2021, 02:16:02 AM
There will be a realignment; it will probably be in the 2030s, and it may involve the Dems becoming the party of the rich.

False.

(Conversing with you how you converse with others.)

-Come on, man, this is like a Vermonter in the 1950s saying the Dems will never win Vermont because they're too racist.

No, it's not.  You're completely projecting a trend based on what you want to happen.  MUH THE PEOPLE VS. THE ELITES.  It hasn't happened in modern times, and it never will again; politics will never be that simple ever again.

Just because something happened in the past (Presidential voting trickling down in the South, for example) does not mean it's destined to happen in the future.



LOLOL

Copy and paste my response from him to you, lol.  Our political coalitions are QUITE gray on matters of class, unless you’re desperate to paint your side as “for the people” or “for the elites.”  Neither side is either, unless you’re a chump and a sucker.

It is true that both political parties are grey on matters of class. Both parties consist of groups that have been disadvantaged by the current political order (the white working class in the GOP, minorities in the Democratic party). However, it is not unreasonable to speculate that these groups (or instead, the children of these groups who are more easily moldable and currently do not vote because they feel left out of politics) will eventually join forces under a single party and instigate a political realignment. The question is whether they unite under the democratic or republican party. There is, in my opinion, immense potential for both parties to become this party. So I guess we'll find out the answer to that question over the next few election cycles.


Title: Re: 2024 will be the realigning election of our lifetimes
Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on April 18, 2021, 03:29:42 AM
PA trending right for four consecutive elections is something i didn't expect.

Also WI trended right in 2020 but it flipped (same for PA).