Talk Elections

Maryland Governor

Bob Ehrlich (R)    46%
Martin O'Malley (D)    41%
Other    3%

Maryland Governor

Bob Ehrlich (R)    43%
Doug Duncan (D)    44%
Other    4%

MD Governor 2006: Ehrlich Faces Tough Re-election Bid

July 21, 2005--Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich won his current job by narrowly defeating Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002. Early indications are that he will face another tough election battle in 2006, regardless of who the Democrats nominate as the challenger.

A Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 survey finds that Ehrlich leads Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley by five percentage points at this time. Ehrlich attracts 46% of the vote to 41% for O'Malley.

The race is even closer between the Republican incumbent and Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan. Duncan earns 44% of the vote in that match-up to 43% for Ehrlich.

Ehrlich has a solid lead among male voters over either Democrat. However, both Democrats lead Ehrlich among women.

The margin of sampling error for the full survey sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Ehrlich is seen as politically conservative by 50% of voters and moderate by another 30%.

O'Malley is seen as liberal by 45% and moderate by 29%. For Duncan, the numbers are 29% liberal and 31% moderate.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Maryland voters consider themselves politically conservative. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they are moderate and 24% liberal.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Maryland%20Governor.htm

Up until now, had Ehrlich been a shoe-in for re-election, Nick?

Dave

No, Ehrlich has never been shoo-in.  The shocker here is... O'Malley is losing and Duncan is winning.  A couple months ago O'malley was leading in the polls while Duncan was barley polling above 30% vs Governor Ehrlich.  What Im getting from this poll is, the people of Maryland want change, just not in the way of Mayor O'Malley.

Ah right, I haven't paid much attention to the gubnatorials. Basically, I just hope Maryland Democrats pick somebody who can send Ehrlich packing

Dave

Both candidates are capapble of defeating Ehrlich.  Actually, just about any Democrat is capapble of defeating Ehrlich, thats just the nature of partisan politics.  In my opinion this race is going to come down to two deciding factors.

1.)  Lt. Gov.
-  Who will Ehrlich choose to replace Steele?
-  Will the Democratic candidate for Governor choose an African American running mate and keep the AM base happy?

2.)  Anne Arundel County

Ehrlich sorta' reminds me of President Bush.  No major accomplisments worth mentioning, yet he remains relatively popular.  People just seem to like the guy.

Interesting. I still maintain that Duncan is your best bet to win this race, but either candidate should be able to do it.

Regarding my "two deciding factors"...

For Lt. Gov. it looks like Ehrlich is leaning towards...  Nancy Grasmick, the state superintendent of schools.  Here's the catch, she is a Democrat.

Grasmick's got money, picking a woman and a Democrat would be a strategic choice in a climate where he has to expand his base, and it would give Ehrlich's ticket a good angle to attack O'Malley on Baltimore City's horrendous school system.

Approval ratings in the mid-40s for President Bush show that he is unpopular.

Yeah, but the only approval rating that matters is the one on election day.

Huh?  The last two SUSA polls say approval ratings of 48% and 48% and disapproval ratings of 45% and 45%.  Borderline being in trouble in a Democrat state such as Maryland, but not the mid-40s (which would be in trouble).

As I have said on this site countless times, I will not, repeat will not vote for Martin O'Malley for Governor.  Apparently there are some Marylanders who wisely feel the same way.

Nickshepdem is quite right as to what the two deciding factors will come down to in this race; he's probably also right as to who Ehrlich will pick as a running mate.  But as of right now, this race remains a tossup until we finally have a nominee and then I'll start making predictions.

That's true, but his popularity has obviously gone down since he was re-elected.

What are your reasons?

I live and work in Baltimore.  I have seen his corruption in action ( in the city school system, hotel construction, etc.) constantly.  The city is still as dangerous as it was when he took office (I don't care what numbers say) and his police force cannot handle the massive drug problem.

Simply put, he is an incompetant louse.

All politicans' approval ratings go down after they are reelected. Obviously someone hasn't done their homework.

I've always thought Ehrlich was a favorite and I see no reason to change that. It'll be a close race but I'm impressed with Ehrlich's political savvy.

I actually agree.  Well, somewhat.  The school system is a disaster.  There is millions missing from the budget and no one knows where the money went.  His handling of the BCPD has been pretty lousy.  Central booking is a complete mess.  (Side note:  Violent crime is down, but murders are up.) 

However, I think he has done some good.  Especially in the development area.  Canton, Federal Hill, Locust Point, and The Inner Harbor are all coming along very, very nicely.  Money is flowing like water through those areas.

Another reaosn to vote for Duncan.  Somebody who isn't a complete nutjob.  However, I bet O'Malley will win the Dem Primary.  Any polls for the primary?

The O'Malley camp released a poll the other day.  O'Malley is way ahead.  The results are in the MD Gubernatorial thread.

Remember Vorlon's rules. A partisan poll showing the candidate who released it ahead shouldn't be trusted.

Totally agree.

I think I'm going to see O'Malley speak at the Press Club in a couple weeks.

I really like Doug Duncan, and I think he is a better candidate than O'Malley in the logn run, but it really doesn't make a lot of sense that Duncan would be running ahead at this point in the campaign, so I'm skeptical.

He's really not all that impressive.  I thought his speech at the 2004 convention was borderline horrible.

Why are you attending a Democratic speech?

He's a closet Democrat.  Has too much pride to admit it though.

Nice signature, Nick.

Thanks... :)

I just started following this race about a week or so ago.  From what I have read I am very impressed with Hackett.  He seems like a great candidate and a great American.  The least I can do is throw his name and banner in my sig.

Hackett is an excellent candidate.

The people of southern Ohio would be crazy to choose a Tom Delay-Republican like Jean Schmidt over him.

haha... nah I just think it would be cool to go to the Press Club, as I'm only going to be in DC through mid-August. When Democrats come to my college I'll go, I would have seen Daschle except I had a literal ton of crap due the next day.

I've actually found a lot of people better in person, which perhaps is contrary to what you would think. I'll report on any observations if and when I see O'Malley.

I've seen a lot in Congress so I'll probably post some random stuff on that sooner or later.

If Duncan's the better nominee, nominate him. Just get that idiot Ehlrich out. Of course he might be marginally better than Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, who actually is on a campaign to ban dodgeball in public schools. Even I don't know if I would've voted for her.

Duncan and O'Malley appear to be both good sane Democrats who aren't primarily concerned with such asinine crap.

Basically, Ehrlich's 2002 victory was an anomaly.  Maryland's rural voters were upset with then-Gov. Parris Glendening's excessive environmental policies.  The fact that he was going through a nasty divorce and married an office staffer didn't help matters much.  My guess is that Doug Duncan will win the nomination thanks to his pull with suburban voters, but it's too early to tell for sure.

Frankly, Maryland's in a nasty place. Of the Democrats, Duncan is nominally preferable, but I'm not a huge fan of either. Ehrlich's very milquetoast, in my impression, and he hasn't been very good for my mother (who works for DHR-Child Support) - the hiring freeze, a relic of a couple years of budget crunches, hasn't been removed despite the surplus. I do like his pro-gambling position, though. That said, I'll keep an eye out on the Libertarian candidate...