Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: MT Treasurer on December 04, 2016, 03:18:02 AM



Title: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 04, 2016, 03:18:02 AM
2000-2016 Trend map

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States with the strongest Democratic trends

1. Utah (Trend: 21.0% D)
2. California (Trend: 16.8% D)
3. Vermont (Trend: 14.9% D)
4. Alaska (Trend: 14.5% D)
5. Hawaii (Trend: 12.3% D)
6./7. Virginia (Trend: 11.7% D) and Colorado (Trend: 11.7% D)
8. Texas (Trend: 10.7% D)
9. DC (Trend: 9.0% D)
10. Oregon (Trend: 8.8% D)
11. Washington (Trend: 8.6% D)

States with the strongest Republican trends

1. West Virginia (Trend: 37.5% R)
2. Tennessee (Trend: 23.9% R)
3. Arkansas (Trend: 23.1% R)
4. Missouri (Trend: 16.9% R)
5. Kentucky (Trend: 16.3% R)
6. Oklahoma (Trend: 16.1% R)
7. Rhode Island (Trend: 15.2% R)
8. Alabama (Trend: 14.4% R)
9. Louisiana (Trend: 13.8% R)
10. Iowa (Trend: 11.3% R)

States with the smallest trends

1. South Carolina (Trend: 0.0% D/R)
2. New Hampshire (Trend: 0.1% D)
3./4. Arizona (Trend: 1.2% D)/Kansas (Trend: 1.4% R)
5. Massachusetts (Trend: 1.7% R)
6. Nebraska (Trend: 1.8% D)
7./8. Wisconsin (Trend: 2.5% R)/Minnesota (Trend: 2.5% R)
9./10. Florida (Trend: 2.8% R)/Mississippi (Trend: 2.8% R)
11. Montana (Trend: 2.9% D)


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 04, 2016, 11:31:28 AM
Btw, here are all the numbers:

National: 2000 → 2016: D+1.6

Alaska:  R+30.9 → R+14.8   → Trend: 14.5% D
Alabama: R+14.9 → R+27.7 → Trend: 14.4% R
Arizona: R+6.3→ R+3.5 → Trend: 1.2% D
Arkansas: R+5.4 → R+26.9 → Trend: 23.1% R
California: D+11.8 → D+30.2 → Trend: 16.8% D
Colorado: R+8.4→ D+4.9 → Trend: 11.7% D
Connecticut: D+17.5→ D+13.6 → Trend: 5.5% R
Delaware: D+13.1 → D+11.4 → Trend: 3.3% R
DC: D+76.2→ D+86.8 → Trend: 9.0% D
Florida: TIE → R+1.2 → Trend: 2.8% R
Georgia: R+11.7→ R+5.1 → Trend: 5.0% D
Hawaii: D+18.3 → D+32.2 → Trend: 12.3% D
Idaho: R+39.6→ R+31.8 → Trend: 6.2% D
Illinois: D+12.0→ D+17.1 → Trend: 3.5% D
Indiana: R+15.7→ R+18.9 → Trend: 4.8% R
Iowa: D+0.3 → R+9.4 → Trend: 11.3% R
Kentucky: R+15.1 → R+29.8 → Trend: 16.3% R
Kansas: R+20.8 → R+20.6 → Trend: 1.4% R
Louisiana: R+7.4 → R+19.6 → Trend: 13.8% R
Maine: D+5.1 → D+2.7 → Trend: 4.0% R
Maryland: D+16.4→ D+26.4 → Trend: 8.4% D
Massachusetts: D+27.3→ D+27.2 → Trend: 1.7% R
Michigan:  D+5.1 → R+0.2 → Trend: 6.9% R
Minnesota: D+2.4 → D+1.5 → Trend: 2.5% R
Mississippi: R+16.9→ R+18.1 → Trend: 2.8% R
Missouri: R+3.3→ R+18.6 → Trend: 16.9% R
Montana: R+25.0→ R+20.5 → Trend: 2.9% D
Nebraska: R+29.0→ R+25.6 → Trend: 1.8% D
Nevada: R+3.5→ D+2.4 → Trend: 4.3% D
New Hampshire: R+1.3→ D+0.4 → Trend: 0.1% D
New Jersey: D+15.8→ D+14.1 → Trend: 3.3% R
New Mexico: D+0.1→ D+8.2 → Trend: 6.7% D
New York: D+25.0 → D+21.2 → Trend: 5.4% R
North Carolina: R+12.8 → R+3.7 → Trend: 7.5% D
North Dakota: R+27.6→ R+35.7 → Trend: 9.7% R
Ohio: R+3.5→ R+8.1 → Trend: 6.2% R
Oklahoma: R+21.9→ R+36.4 → Trend: 16.1% R
Oregon: D+0.4→ D+10.8 → Trend: 8.8% D
Pennsylvania:  D+4.2→ R+0.8 → Trend: 6.6% R
Rhode Island: D+29.1→ D+15.5 → Trend: 15.2% R
South Carolina: R+15.9→ R+14.3 → Trend: 0% D/R
South Dakota: R+22.7→ R+29.8 → Trend: 8.7% R
Tennessee: R+3.9→ R+26.2 → Trend: 23.9% R
Texas: R+21.3→ R+9.0 → Trend: 10.7% D
Utah: R+40.5→ R+17.9  → Trend: 21.0% D
Vermont: D+9.9→ D+26.4 → Trend: 14.9% D
Virginia: R+8.0 → D+5.3 → Trend: 11.7% D
Washington: D+5.6→ D+15.8 → Trend: 8.6% D
West Virginia: R+6.3 → R+42.2 → Trend: 37.5% R
Wyoming: R+40.1→ R+46.3 → Trend: 7.8% R
Wisconsin: D+0.2 → R+0.7 → Trend: 2.5% R


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 05, 2016, 10:42:36 PM

Yeah, interestingly enough, this looks very much like the 2012-2016 Trend map this year.


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: Make My Bank Account Great Again on December 05, 2016, 10:43:59 PM
Very interesting patterns, thank you for doing all of this.

Looking at the swing/lean R/D states, it looks like almost all of them followed both the same long term (2000-2016) and short term (2012-2016) trend with the exception of NV and NH.

NH has a long term trend of 0.2 Dem but a short term trend of 3.72 Rep.
NV has a long term trend of 4.4 Dem but a short term trend of 2.33 Rep.

I predict that the Dems will hold into Nevada by close margins in 2020 and 2024. New Hampshire is a true swing state in every sense of the word.


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: Sbane on December 06, 2016, 02:37:53 AM
If this continues on, it would mean a natural Dem House majority (and control of a bunch of large states) with a major Republican advantage for everything else.  Sort of like the 1870's-1890's.

Why does this pattern portend a natural Dem House majority?

Also, looking at the medium-long term for Presidential elections, Texas and Florida are the key. If Democrats can get those two states on their side (along with perhaps Georgia and North Carolina), they can afford to lose the entire midwest minus Illinois.

Edit: Texas flipping is the tipping point though. That's when we likely see another realignment. Florida is also a wild card. Lots of minority growth but also lots of elderly Northeastern and Midwestern white growth as well. It always looks like Florida will vote more Democrat than the nation and then it doesn't happen.


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: Make My Bank Account Great Again on December 06, 2016, 02:49:51 AM
If this continues on, it would mean a natural Dem House majority (and control of a bunch of large states) with a major Republican advantage for everything else.  Sort of like the 1870's-1890's.

Why does this pattern portend a natural Dem House majority?

Also, looking at the medium-long term for Presidential elections, Texas and Florida are the key. If Democrats can get those two states on their side (along with perhaps Georgia and North Carolina), they can afford to lose the entire midwest minus Illinois.

I agree. Dems should target GA, AZ, NC, and FL in the short run and TX in the long run.


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: Make My Bank Account Great Again on December 06, 2016, 08:36:19 PM
A competitive 2024 map (assuming these trends continue):

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Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 27, 2016, 10:05:18 PM
Clinton's national PV margin grew by 0.1% since I did this, so I have adjusted the numbers. SC now basically has a trend of exactly 0% R/D and NH has just a tiny 0.1% D trend.


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: kydmb99 on December 28, 2016, 09:46:36 AM
Amazes me how remarkably stable Florida has been. A state that I feel like should be leaning blue just hasn't done so.


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: The_Doctor on December 29, 2016, 10:42:34 AM
Amazes me how remarkably stable Florida has been. A state that I feel like should be leaning blue just hasn't done so.

Their white and minority electorates keep becoming more polarized, for some reason. I'm not sure why, exactly, since this isn't being seen in Georgia, or other swing southern states. (Maybe NC). FL whites voted 57-43% Republican in 2004 (or 2000), and voted 64-32% Republican in 2016. On the other hand Latinos swung from 56-44% Bush in 2004 to something on the order of 63-36% Clinton in 2016.

Consequently, FL is increasingly becoming racially polarized and so the GOP ekes out 2% wins, the Democrats take 2% wins here and there.


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: SingingAnalyst on December 29, 2016, 09:40:04 PM
The better educated states are trending D, while the less educated states are trending R.


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: blacknwhiterose on January 10, 2017, 01:11:17 PM
Amazes me how remarkably stable Florida has been. A state that I feel like should be leaning blue just hasn't done so.

Their white and minority electorates keep becoming more polarized, for some reason. I'm not sure why, exactly, since this isn't being seen in Georgia, or other swing southern states. (Maybe NC). FL whites voted 57-43% Republican in 2004 (or 2000), and voted 64-32% Republican in 2016. On the other hand Latinos swung from 56-44% Bush in 2004 to something on the order of 63-36% Clinton in 2016.

Consequently, FL is increasingly becoming racially polarized and so the GOP ekes out 2% wins, the Democrats take 2% wins here and there.

I'd like to see data on senior citizens in particular.  I'll bet the >65 vote in FL has trended hard R since 2000. As recently as 2000 many white seniors were New Deal/FDR era types who were Yellow Dog Democratic.  Many of those seniors are under ground now or in assisted living centers watching wheel of fortune and going to bed at 6:30 on election days.  The newer batch of seniors retiring to Florida are Baby Boomers, and probably noticeably more Republican as a whole.   


Title: Re: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
Post by: RINO Tom on January 10, 2017, 02:05:06 PM
The better educated states are trending D, while the less educated states are trending R.

And the better educated are a less wealthy and less White group each year, why is this surprising?  Lurking variables.